EGU General Assembly 2022  

With full satellite coverage of transatlantic flight routes now a reality, situational awareness is no longer a limiting factor in planning trajectories. This extra freedom allows us to consider moving from the current Organised Track System to Trajectory Based Operations, in order to limit fuel use and thus reduce emissions.

In all parts of this research, flights between New York and London, from 1^st December, 2019 to 29^thFebruary, 2020 are considered. Average daily winds and temperatures are taken from a global atmospheric re-analysis dataset.

We first use optimal control theory to find the minimum time trajectories through daily wind fields. The aircraft is assumed to fly at Flight Level 340 with airspeeds ranging from 200 to 270 m s^-1. Since fuel burn and greenhouse gas emissions are directly proportional to the product of time of flight and airspeed, this quantity, air distance, is used as a measure of route fuel efficiency. Minimum time air distances are compared with actual Air Traffic Management tracks, giving potential savings ranging from 0.7 to 16.4%. 

However, minimum time routes are not always practical. Airlines and airports require trajectories that will minimize fuel burn and thus carbon dioxide emissions, whilst adhering to a rigid timetable. To address this we again apply optimal control theory, but this time to find minimum fuel routes through the same wind fields. 

The control variable is expressed as a set of position-dependent aircraft headings, with the optimal control problem solved through a reduced gradient approach.  A second formulation is considered, wherein both heading angle and airspeed are controlled.  By comparing fuel burn for each of these scenarios, the importance of airspeed in the control formulation is established. 

Thus large reductions in fuel consumption and emissions are possible immediately, by planning time or fuel minimal trajectories, without waiting decades for incremental improvements in fuel-efficiency through technological advances.

How to cite: Wells, C., Williams, P., Nichols, N., Kalise, D., and Poll, I.: Reducing aviation emissions: investigating time minimal and fixed time trajectories for transatlantic flights., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-689, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-689, 2022.

The rapidly rising generation of municipal solid waste jeopardizes the environment and contributes to climate heating. Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, we here develop a global systematic approach for evaluating the potentials to reduce emissions of
greenhouse gases and air pollutants from the implementation of circular municipal waste management systems. We contrast two sets of global scenarios until 2050, namely baseline and mitigation scenarios, and show that mitigation strategies in the sustainability-oriented
scenario yields earlier, and major, co-benefits compared to scenarios in which inequalities are reduced but that are focused solely on technical solutions. The sustainability-oriented scenario leaves 386 Tg CO2eq/yr of GHG (CH4 and CO2) to be released while air pollutants from
open burning can be eliminated, indicating that this source of ambient air pollution can be entirely eradicated before 2050.

How to cite: Gomez Sanabria, A., Kiesewetter, G., Klimont, Z., Schoepp, W., and Haberl, H.: Potential for future reductions of global GHG and air pollutants from circular waste management systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-755, 2022.

Green hydrogen has been identified as a key energy carrier to decarbonize the main emission sectors. In the industry sectors hydrogen can be used as a reducing agent in the metallurgy, in the transportation sector hydrogen can be used as a fuel and in the energy sector hydrogen can be used as an energy storage option. However, the production of hydrogen is energy intensive and can only lead to a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions if the primary energy source is renewable, carbon-free, and has a low ecological footprint. Wind, geothermal, solar and hydropower have been identified as key sources for sustainable and green hydrogen production, especially if excess energy is used for the hydrogen production. Unfortunately, large scale renewable energy production is frequently located at distant location from main consumers. We assess the challenges and opportunities of two remote production hot spots for sustainable and green hydrogen, namely Iceland and northern Africa. We will present different methods, ranging from energy modelling, life cycle assessment, to stakeholder analysis to present a holistic picture of sustainable green hydrogen production. Based on our preliminary results, we conclude that Iceland as well as northern Africa have the potential to produce sustainable and green hydrogen.

How to cite: Egbe, D. A. M., Finger, D., and Lang, R.: The opportunities and challenges of Green Hydrogen from Africa and Iceland to decarbonize the industries, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2917, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2917, 2022.

Economic prosperity is vital to human development, but heavy reliance on material extraction leads to environmental degradation. To successfully decouple growth from degradation, the main drivers of material footprint (MF) must be identified. Here, we focus on MFs in Chinese provinces as well as emerging economies in a global context. We employ a local-global input-output model that considers trade and classified investment/consumption to evaluate the relationship between MF and the Human Development Index (HDI). The results show that China's growing MFs exhibit different development trajectories. While GDP and Human Development Index (HDI) are generally correlated with MFs, some low-income provinces in China have higher MFs per capita than some affluent provinces and advanced economies. We find that capital investments related to buildings, infrastructure, and equipment in China explain the complexity. To explain this further, we distinguish between consumption-driven and investment-driven MFs. We demonstrate the different roles of consumption and investment in the physical economy. An interesting finding is that consumption-driven MFs are generally associated with HDI across Chinese provinces and countries, but investment-driven MFs are not. Such trends are also observed in some developing economies. Capital investment shapes the different trajectories of MFs in rapidly industrializing economies. Given the large infrastructure gaps in emerging economies and post-pandemic investment plans, these underline the need to consider the broader sustainability implications of future investment plans. The concept that investigating different roles of investment- and consumption-associated footprint in input-output framework suggests that modeling future MFs, especially in rapidly industrializing countries, requires a more sophisticated framework. Taking capital investment and stocks formation into the general modeling is important. We conclude by asking two open questions: (1) Does the development of consumption-driven and investment-driven MFs across countries follow a paradigm where the early process of development is high-infrastructure MFs, and then shifts to higher consumption MFs as capital stocks build up? (2) How much investment does an economy need to maintain healthy and green growth?

How to cite: Jiang, M., Behrens, P., Yang, Y., Tang, Z., Chen, D., Yu, Y., Liu, L., Gong, P., Zhu, S., Zhou, W., Hertwich, E., Zhu, B., and Tukker, A.: Distinguishing Capital Investment and Consumption of Material Footprint: A Comparative Analysis between Subnational China and Other Nations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3119, 2022.

We recently launched a citizen science project on household water-energy efficiency as part of the cross-border, interdisciplinary Dŵr Uisce research project on improving the energy performance and long-term sustainability of the water sectors in Ireland and Wales. Citizen science is emerging as a critically important means of democratising science by engaging the public to contribute to the creation of solutions to some of the most important topical global challenges like climate change.

The main aim of the citizen science project is to engage with and collaborate with the public to improve understanding of water-related energy use in Irish homes to help assess the most effective means of improving the efficiency and sustainability of household water-related energy use through water use efficiency.

The project consists of two key parts: a cross-sectional survey that assessed the current public perception of household water and water-related energy use, followed by a longitudinal study where participants record water use at home to assess the actual current household micro-component water use and associated water-related energy use. The findings of the project will be used to quantify the potential of climate action through household water-energy use efficiency in reducing emissions and costs, and to develop up-to-date best practice guidelines for climate action from household water use efficiency.

We will be presenting the results of the cross-sectional survey on current perception of household water and water-related energy use. The survey, open to all households in the Republic of Ireland, ran for 7 weeks in September and October 2021 and a prize draw was used to incentivise participation. We received a total of 265 responses of which 23 responses were partially completed responses (8.7%); however, data available for non-completed responses does not indicate any difference compared to completed responses, and it may well be possible some non-completed responders went on to restart the survey after it timed out. The survey consisted of 60 questions grouped by general questions on household water use (e.g., water provision, and water and energy metering) and household water use types (bathroom, kitchen, cleaning and laundry, and outdoor water use). Itwas designed to be disaggregated by the Irish Central Statistics Office (CSO) household demographic and socio-economic census as a segmentation framework: location, household type, household age, housing status, employment status, household income and household size (disaggregated by age). The responses are found to be generally representative compared with the most recent 2016 census data in terms of location, employment status, housing status, household income, household type, and household age.

How to cite: Bello-Dambatta, A., Bellini, R., and Williams, P.: Energy efficiency through household water use efficiency: a survey on public perception of household water and water-related energy use in Ireland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3310, 2022.

The need to balance supply and demand has become an important policy concern in a context of a projected growth in global energy consumption. Based on the demand–temperature relationship and the ongoing global warming, climate change is expected to alter the regional patterns of electricity demand. This work evaluates the influence that climate change could exert on electricity demand patterns in Spain conditioned on the level of warming, with special attention to the seasonal occurrence of extreme demand days. For this purpose, assuming the currently observed electricity demand–temperature relationship holds in the future, we have generated daily time series of pseudo-electricity demand from the recent past until the late twenty-first century by using simulated temperatures from statistical downscaling of global climate model experiments.

We have found that, despite the minor warming effects on the median values of daily electricity demand, the mean values as well as the frequency and severity of extreme electricity demand days are expected to increase significantly in Spain, even for low levels of regional warming. Moreover, the occurrence of these extremes will experience a seasonal shift from winter to summer due to the projected temperature increases in both seasons. Under a high radiative forcing scenario of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5), the extended summer season (June–September) will concentrate more than 50% of extreme electricity demand days by mid-century, increasing to 90% before the end of the century. Since these events will often be related to extreme heat, there could also be side effects that jeopardize the electricity infrastructure. Thus, this result should be considered by energy planners to ensure power supply and improve the effectiveness of the energy system.

Finally, we have shown that future changes in electricity demand could have considerable spatial heterogeneity over the country, which has strong implications for the management of the electricity system. While Spain is warming up faster than the global mean, there are some regions that will be exposed to lower warming than others. In particular, northwestern Spain will experience the seasonal shift later than the rest of the country due to the relatively mild summer temperatures and lower projected warming there. 

How to cite: García-Herrera, R., Garrido-Pérez, J. M., Barriopedro, D., and Ordóñez, C.: Impact of climate change on Spanish electricity demand, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3545, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3545, 2022.

Climate change necessitates an immediate and sustained global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while adapting to the increased climate risks caused by historical emissions. This broader climate transition will involve mass global interventions including renewable energy deployment, coastal protection and retreat, and enhanced space cooling, which will result in CO₂ emissions from energy and materials use. Yet, the magnitude of these emissions remains largely unconstrained, leaving open the potential for under-accounting of emissions and conflicts or synergies between mitigation and adaptation goals. Here, we use a suite of models to estimate the CO₂ emissions embedded in the broader climate transition. For a pathway limiting warming to 2°C, we estimate that selected adaptations will emit ~1.5GtCO₂ through 2100. Emissions from energy used to deploy renewable capacity are much larger at ~95GtCO₂, equivalent to over two years of current global emissions and ~8% of the remaining carbon budget for 2°C. These embedded transition emissions are reduced by 80% to 20GtCO₂ under a rapid decarbonization scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C. However, they roughly double to 185GtCO₂ under a low-ambition transition consistent with current policies (2.7°C warming by 2100), mainly because a slower transition relies more on fossil fuels. Under this status-quo, the emissions embedded in the transition total nearly half the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C. Our results provide the first holistic assessment of the carbon emissions embedded in the transition itself, and suggest that these emissions can be largely minimized through rapid energy decarbonization, an underappreciated benefit of enhanced climate ambition.  

How to cite: Lesk, C., Csala, D., Krekeler, R., Sgouridis, S., Levesque, A., Mach, K., Horen Greenford, D., Matthews, H. D., and Horton, R.: Mitigation and Adaptation Emissions Embedded in the Broader Climate Transition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6603, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6603, 2022.

Arctic and Boreal regions are experiencing major natural and anthropogenic disturbances, leading to significant changes in ecosystem composition, structure and functioning in recent decades. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the main drivers of change, as well as the ecosystem impacts on natural and cultural resources, human health and the climate system. Large numbers of oil and natural gas wells are being drilled in Arctic and Boreal regions; however, the number and distribution of wells drilled in these regions over time is not well documented and understood. Moreover methane emissions and relationship with land cover and land cover change have not been analyzed. Using oil and gas well databases from provincial, territorial and state agencies in Canada and the U.S., we analyze drilled oil and gas wells throughout the study period (1984-2014) and in relation to land cover distribution and change across the Arctic-Boreal region of western North America. We find 254,998 wells, mostly located in Alberta (211,747) and British Columbia (35,012), in Arctic and Boreal regions of Canada and the U.S. We characterize the wells, based on data provided in the database, according to well production type (gas or oil and gas) and well abandonment status (active, abandoned, abandoned and plugged) and find that annual well drilling has increased from 269 to 8599 from 1984 to 2014. We estimate emissions from abandoned oil and gas wells in the study domain to be 40 – 148% of Environment and Climate Change Canada’s national estimate for methane emissions from abandoned oil and gas wells in 2018. Finally, using the annual land cover maps for 1984-2014, we find the number of drilled wells in each land cover class throughout the years. We identify significant increases in number of wells drilled between 1984-1999 and 2000-2014 in evergreen forest, sparsely vegetated and barren land cover classes. 

How to cite: Klotz, L. A., Sonnentag, O., and Kang, M.: Methane and Environmental Impacts of Abandoned Oil And Gas Wells in the North American Arctic-Boreal Region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6658, 2022.

40% of global energy demand can be attributed to buildings, and 75% of this share is contributed by residential buildings. Developing countries are expected to be the hotspot for future growth in residential energy demand, as many of them expect significant growth in population and urbanization. For instance, 75% of the residential floorspace expected to exist in India in 2030 remained to be constructed in 2015. Thus, a lot of the new energy demand from residential buildings can still be controlled and mitigated. As the country expected to have the largest population in the world by 2025, India has a responsibility to grow sustainably, in a way that aids global climate change mitigation goals. Studying the residential building sector in India thus is a necessary step towards achieving these goals.

Indian residential buildings are diverse, and include informal slums,  low-quality formal buildings, mid-rise formal buildings, and high-rise skyscrapers. Global models for energy efficiency in the residential sector usually consider only one type of building from developing countries, the formal (cement-concrete) type. They create a generalized model, based on the assumption that appliances and thermal comfort standards are the same in most countries. These generalizations do not consider the diverse types of buildings, appliances and thermal comfort standards in India, or any developing country.

This project presents a life-cycle assessment representing all residential building types in India - formal, semi-formal and informal. The semi-formal typology is hitherto missing from building energy modeling literature.  We include and model embodied phase and use-phases separately. The embodied phase study helps understand the energy demand and material demand from the building materials and construction. In the use-phase study, we create detailed models of all residential building typologies, and simulate cooling energy demand results for the city of Mumbai. We study building clusters, to account for the heat transfer and shading effects from the crowded urban environment in India. We also model realistic cooling appliances commonly used in Indian households, like fans and water-based coolers, in addition to air conditioners, and more representative cooling behaviour.

For the first time in this Indian residential life-cycle assessment study, we define three representative typologies for Indian residential buildings. We study clusters and model real appliances used in these homes. We explore some simple material efficiency and energy efficiency strategies through different envelopes, appliances and usage. The goal of this study is to create a preliminary model of what buildings in India are like, and understand how their life-cycle energy demands differ, and some simple options to reduce this demand.

How to cite: Iyer, A., Aly Etman, M., Hertwich, E., and Rao, N.: Representative models and energy and material efficiency strategies for residential buildings in urban India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6801, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6801, 2022.

Paris climate agreement has been a major step forward to limit the global mean temperature rise to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. For many countries, it has led to adopt Net-Zero GHG Emissions (NZE) targets by mid-century. Such objectives imply renewing much existing infrastructures and equipment through low-carbon investments in key sectors (buildings, transport, and power supply). However, there is a risk to overshoot the objectives due to base carbon-intensive materials (steel, cement, etc.). Indeed, material demand is already expected to double by mid-century following economic trends. Deploying intensively low-carbon infrastructure and technologies is expected to increase material demand even more. The size of this surplus is unclear as most energy prospects neglect the feedback between the low-carbon transition and material needs. In addition, most countries restrict their NZE targets to territorial emissions, whereas a carbon footprint approach is essential to account for carbon linkage and industrial relocation toward more carbon-intensive countries. Also, the potential for a fast transition to zero-carbon industrial processes and materials as required is still uncertain, all the more in developing countries producing most materials. The design of stringent climate policy needs a clearer vision of the role of materials in the low-carbon transition to prioritizing mitigation actions.

Our study aims to quantify the link between GHG emissions, low-carbon investments, and the demand for materials. We develop an Input-Output model called MatMat designed (i) to integrate various sets of expertise about low-carbon scenarios and (ii) to track the role of investment demand and material supply in the evolution of the carbon footprint. We apply our method to the french governmental NZE scenario and global mitigation scenarios until 2050. By disentangling key drivers impacting GHG emissions embodied in materials, we show that the carbon footprint of materials could offset national NZE targets due to (i) the indirect material demand embodied in imports and (ii) the potential delay in decarbonizing the material production compared to other sectors, especially abroad. To relieve the material bottleneck for the transition to NZE strategy, we recommend (i) developing material efficiency and circular economy policies, (ii) relocating low-carbon industrial productions, and (iii) supporting imports of clean industrial products at the national level.

How to cite: Teixeira, A. and Lefèvre, J.: The future carbon footprint of materials as a bottleneck for the transition to Net-Zero Emissions – case study on France, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11525, 2022.

In a climate-constrained world, understanding the energy needs to reach universal access to modern energy is critical. This requires making assumptions on future population trajectories, and developments in energy access can affect them. Yet, this feedback has never been accounted for in energy models. Access to modern energy enhances women’s ability to make reproductive choices and leads to fertility decline as it reduces child mortality, improves health, increases women’s access to information, education and employment. In this paper, we assess the household energy requirements to expand energy access while considering the relationship between energy access and fertility, using Zambia as a case study. To do so, we built a micro-simulation model of population projection in which fertility depends on access to modern energy and education level, and projected the electricity and cooking energy needs of the Zambian population to 2050, under different scenarios. Our preliminary results show that while electricity consumption is higher in the universal access scenario compared to the baseline scenario, total energy demand is 67% lower, partly due to strong decline in the use inefficient traditional cooking fuels. Reduced population growth due to expanded energy access and education accounts for 15% of this reduction in rural areas, and 8% overall. Although the challenge of achieving universal access to modern energy seems daunting, our results suggest that this goal could be co-beneficial to achieving climate goals. Our study also reveals that accounting for the energy-population nexus in energy models would scale down the currently assumed energy needs to ensure decent well-being for all.

How to cite: Belmin, C., Pichler, P.-P., Marois, G., Pachauri, S., and Weisz, H.: Reducing the energy demand to achieve universal access to modern energy while ensuring women’s well-being: How much energy and carbon can be saved by fertility decline?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12238, 2022.

The European Green Deal (EGD) is a development strategy aimed at transforming the European Union into a the world's first climate-neutral area. The way to achieve this goal is a low-emission energy transformation, which should end in 2050, but the first milestones should be achieved already in 2030. Following the dynamically accelerating EU climate and energy trends will be a significant transformation challenge for Poland. The strategies proposed in the EGD will have a significant impact on key areas of the national economy (energy system, construction, industry, transport, households), including the level of supply and demand for many mineral raw materials. The most visible changes will be registered in the group of fossil fuels, but also regarding metallic raw materials, which will be associated with the development of advanced technologies for renewable energy sources.

A crucial breakthrough in the Polish energy transformation was the country's accession to the declaration of resignation from the coal exploitation, which Poland signed during the World Climate Summit in 2021. According to the social contract, the last hard coal mine in Poland will be closed by 2049. Thus, for the first time Poland was on the list of countries that officially confirm the withdrawal from coal. The resignation from this raw material is also included in the Polish Energy Policy 2040, according to which hard coal will be replaced by natural gas, nuclear energy and renewable energy. As a consequence, an increase in demand for both natural gas and nuclear fuels, should be expected. It should be noted that Poland does not have its own fossil nuclear fuel sources, and the domestic extraction of natural gas covers only 13% of the demand. In both cases an increasing demand for fuels should be assumed in the coming decades. Crude oil is also in the group of fuels sensitive to changes resulting from EGD. The main sector of the Polish economy in which petroleum products are consumed is transport. The development of electromobility, the use of biocomponents and alternative fuels will be the most important factors influencing changes in the level of demand for crude oil in the next 10-20 years.

The EGD strategy will play an important role in changing the structure of demand for metallic raw materials, both in terms of their quality and quantity. It should be emphasized that Poland has the largest copper ores deposits in Europe. In recent decades, the Polish production has accounted for nearly 50% of the total copper ore concentrates production and for more than 20% of the total refined copper production in the EU. Development of demand for this raw material is related to the scale of use of refined copper, among others in renewable energy (wind power and photovoltaics) and electromobility, which are the pillars of EGD. Unfortunately, practically all other metals important in development of renewable energy sources in Poland (e.g. cobalt, nickel, manganese, lithium, REEs, silicon) are completely deficit for the Polish economy due to lack economically feasible domestic sources. 

How to cite: Kot-Niewiadomska, A. and Galos, K.: Polish demand and supply of mineral raw materials  in the light of the European Green Deal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12341, 2022.

Predictions forecast changes in climate that may affect cultural heritage in the future. Not only the underwater cultural heritage will become exposed, but also our land tangible cultural heritage will be submerged: entire nations and their cultural heritage may disappear, losing their identity as nations, countries, and communities. In fact, climate change has the potential to increase the sea level enough by 2100 to inundate 136 sites considered by UNESCO as cultural and historical treasures.

This presentation will examine the specific climate changes that oceans will most likely suffer and how they will probably affect tangible underwater cultural heritage, analysing how the changes will affect every possible material that can be found in a submerged archaeological site. It will also explore cases of heritage that are already suffering the consequences examining two future scenarios: how climate change may disturb underwater cultural heritage, and how land cultural heritage may change its label and subsequently become underwater cultural heritage. Lastly, the presentation will propose a new partnership natural/cultural resources and the qualification of cultural heritage as a natural resource for its preservation, establishing the same common measures for both heritage against climate change.

How to cite: Pérez Álvaro, E.: Climate change: a threat to underwater cultural heritage, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-107, 2022.

The analysis and interpretation of past climate data and simulations of climate models for future periods will allow us to know future climate conditions and their differences with past ones. One of the many applications of these analyzes is the study of the impacts of climate change on two types of cultural heritage that differ due to their geographical location and therefore their climatic conditions, as are vernacular cultural heritage in Europe and archaeological sites in Latin America, but they share a fundamental similarity in terms of the use of materials and construction techniques.

The first objective of our study is to review and quantify the impacts of combined climate (mean and extreme) and pollution on building materials of cultural heritage under future IPCC socioeconomic scenarios with high and low mitigation measures at years 2030, 2050 and 2070, using peer-reviewed dose-response equations.

We also focus on the degradation effects due to compound extreme events (heatwave, dry spells and extreme rainfall/flood) of each of the selected regions of our case study (European project SCORE: Sustainable COnservation and REstoration of built cultural heritage 2021-2024), in order to determine how future climatic conditions may affect the cultural heritage of some sites in Europe and Latin America. The foregoing by applying these climatic conditions in different models, based on scientific literature, that allow determining the consequences of these conditions on the materials in which these structures were built.

Finally, based on the literature review, we deliver preliminary results on a “cocktail of extreme events” experiment in laboratory specifically designed to quantify the damages and degradation of building materials due to a realistic series of adverse climate and pollution events.

How to cite: Esteban Cantillo, O. J., Menendez, B., and Quesada, B.: Climate change impact on vernacular and archaeological cultural heritage building materials in Europe and Latin America, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1776, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1776, 2022.

Since the Industrial revolution, emissions of pollutant (gas, aerosols) due to human activities increased and modified the composition of the atmosphere, causing air pollution and climate change. However, pollution measurements are relatively recent. In order to know past air pollution and assess its impact on monuments, proxies need to be found and studied.

One of these potential local proxies is black crusts that are a chemical alteration pattern mainly found on limestone or marble monuments. They are forming a dark mineralogical layer composed of gypsum (CaSO₄.2H₂O) that results from the sulfation reaction between the calcite (CaCO₃) of the stone and the sulphur dioxide (SO₂) from the atmosphere. As gypsum is easily soluble, this pattern particularly affects sheltered area from the rain where particulate matter is trapped and accumulates. Therefore, black crusts act as passive sampler and could be used as an archive of air pollution.

To validate black crusts nomination as a new proxy and to find the best pollution marker, samples were collected at Père Lachaise cemetery on ancient tombs (dated from the 1820’s). A specific protocol was applied to separate strata from each other. Then, multiple analyses were realised using SEM-EDS, ICP-AES, and ICP-MS. The results show a different particulate content as a function of the depth, with different contributions of fly-ash typical of coal and oil combustion. This is confirmed by the chemical analyses as the trace metal concentrations are in agreement with the pollution sources. This study demonstrates that laminar black crusts have an internal stratigraphy that can be crucial to reconstruct past air pollution and provides precious data on pollution sources.

How to cite: Ropiquet, M., Verney-Carron, A., and Chabas, A.: Black crusts as past air pollution archives, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2571, 2022.

The intensity and frequency of extreme weather events in Europe are one of the most dangerous consequences of a warming climate. Some regions suffer more under heat waves and droughts, while others are experiencing extreme rainfalls. Thus, for example, a severe flood in July 2021 in several European countries caused widespread damages particularly in Belgium and Germany.

Which extreme weather events are to be expected in the future? How can the damage of irretrievable historical sites be avoided or, at least, limited or dealt with? All these questions are addressed in the three-year research project KERES, which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and is coordinated by the Fraunhofer ISC together with the Fraunhofer EU Office in Brussels.

As first step the regional relevance of future extreme weather events in Germany will be investigated.  This information will be further used to estimate the potential damages to buildings and outdoor facilities. The precautionary and responsive measures to manage potential or acute damage situations will be investigated as well. The designed methodologies will be tested for five case studies including World Heritage Sites (historical buildings and historical gardens)  in Germany.

The major tools of KERES include building component and indoor climate simulations and high-resolution urban climate models. The necessary input will be taken from the most recent ensemble of regional climate change projections of the EURO-CORDEX Initiative (www.euro-cordex.net).  As a result, an ontology-based information system will be designed for managing the expected damage situations.

We will present first results from the KERES project. The discussion will be focused on how to access and visualize the robustness of projected changes of extreme weather events in a way oriented to individual cultural heritage sites.

How to cite: Kotova, L., Leissner, J., Winkler, M., Antretter, F., Kilian, R., Mossgraber, J., Reuter, J., Hellmund, T., Dolgov, A., Matheja, K. M., Rhode, M. R., Pollmer, U., and Mikolajewicz, U.: Making use of climate information for protecting cultural heritage from extreme weather events in a warming world, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2850, 2022.

France's monumental heritage has been the subject of little theoretical research in the face of global climate change, although many applied studies have concerned its adaptation and resilience, especially at the local level. Furthermore, this heritage includes more than 44,000 monuments and classified sites, 48 of which being inscribed on the UNESCO List and therefore deserves to be taken into account in the context of the current climate unbalance.

The complexity lies in the diversity of materials making up the monuments (stones, glass, metals, wood...) and of phenomena that affect them (as well as other constructions). In order to assess the impact of these increasing slow or extreme events already at work, the tools and methodologies range from the description and inventory of the effects, their measurement, mapping and projection into the future using models such as dose-response functions (DRF) with input data from climate models and scenarios. Ancient data can also be used to complement the correlation between climate and heritage, such as dendroclimatology studies of the wood in monuments.

Results from research carried out in France will be presented concerning stone facades, ancient stained glass windows, metals, degradation of walls by salts and dendroclimatology. Further research should focus on the consequences on the monumental heritage of rising marine waters, river and urban flood and low waters, freeze-thaw, the stability of monuments on clay soils and the indoor climate of monuments and their carbon footprint.

In conclusion, much remains to be done in France: (1) complete the inventory and description of the phenomena, their impacts and their location at the national, regional, urban and monumental scales, (2) quantify these impacts in the future via empirical or geochemical models based on climate models outputs.

How to cite: Lefèvre, R.-A., Brimblecombe, P., and Verney-Carron, A.: The French monumental heritage in the face of global climate change: state of the art and research perspectives, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2857, 2022.

Climate change has been proved to have negative impacts on historic areas hosting cultural heritage sites and monuments, which in turn yields significant adverse impacts on local economies, societies, and even politics. The first and necessary step of the process of confrontation of this challenge is the early detection and recording of the on-site inflicted damage by a monitoring tool. In order to achieve that, we developed a dedicated mobile application that aims to assist the assessment of the resilience and the deterioration of the historic areas and the potential impacts due to various hazards. Citizens and local authorities worldwide can directly use the developed application on their mobile phones to acquire photos of on-site damages and submit short reports based on them. This software component has been designed and developed in the context of the European project entitled “HYPERION”, which aims to deliver an integrated resilience assessment platform, addressing multi-hazard risk understanding, faster and efficient response, and sustainable reconstruction of historic areas.

With this application, we aim to create a user-friendly application with the latest user interface and usability issues/trends which is focused on museum enthusiasts and active citizens’ or travelers’ needs. It’s important to put the users of this targeted group at the center of our efforts and by understanding their needs to create an intuitive application for them and at the same time a useful tool for the local authorities.

Users download the application from the Google or Apple App store and they log in or create an account in the application through the PLUGGY platform, which was developed in the context of the “PLUGGY” European project. The main function of the application is to create and post an asset using PLUGGY’s REST API. An Asset is an elementary unit of content in PLUGGY, a media file with an identified owner, a title, a description, a set of tags, and a license, which specifies how this file can be reused. Initially, the user’s location is detected via GPS and corrected in case of miscalculation. The user is then prompted to select a photo (or directly to take a snapshot) that depicts the damage of a monument. To complete the creation of the asset, the user will also need to select a title that will accompany the photo, and some tags, not only for a better description of the event but also for correlation with other assets or exhibition points that already exist in PLUGGY.

The developed mobile application gives voice to citizens and encourages them to provide direct feedback to the relevant cultural authorities, in order to assist them in assessing the deterioration of the cultural heritage sites and determining the needed reconstruction actions. As a result, the communities can have a major role in the safeguard of their cultural heritage.

How to cite: Krommyda, M., Mitro, N., Georgiou, K., Nousis, V., and Amditis, A.: A Communities Engagement Mobile Application for Assessing the Resilience and Deterioration of Cultural Heritage Monuments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3476, 2022.

Salt weathering is a complex and active area of research, with implications for tangible cultural heritage worldwide. A preventive conservation approach is often taken to limit salt crystallisation cycles, which requires an understanding of the relative risks of scenarios and their respective heritage characteristics, salts present, and the climate, including climate change. Equilibrium relative humidity is an important property that indicates this risk: typically, it is represented by specific RH% and temperature derived from a single salt. The behaviour of single salts does not accurately represent the behaviour of salt mixtures, which are far more common in cultural heritage contexts. To address this, 11412 salt mixtures present in the built environment have been analysed using the ECOS/Runsalt model to predict their mixture-based mutual relative humidity of crystallisation and deliquescence points, the salt mixture composition, as well as the relative humidity of crystallisation and deliquescence for individual salts in the mixtures. This dataset, although sampled primarily from Belgian cultural heritage sites, is representative of the general classes of salt mixtures found in the built environment globally. This analysis represents an important step in developing a generalised statistical method for parameterising environmental time series data for salt weathering risk within climate change scenarios, as well as progressing fundamental knowledge on the behaviour of salt mixtures in built cultural heritage.

How to cite: Orr, S. A., Godts, S., and De Kock, T.: A data-driven approach to understanding the equilibria behaviour of salt mixtures in built cultural heritage, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5264, 2022.

During the 21^st Century, climate change and improving air quality will alter biological communities and their influence on building stones. While air pollution used to be a principal factor of stone deterioration, it is diminishing in many parts of the world. These environmental changes affect the aesthetics of building stones, and fewer black gypsum crusts will form, while more biological-induced discolorations could occur. Within the British Isles, it resulted in the “greening” of monuments after increased algal growth. Besides aesthetical damage, the formation of biofilms could affect water transport and retention. Changes in the water-stone relationship should be studied in detail because moisture is the most significant facilitator of stone alteration, leading to physical, chemical and further biological weathering.

This topic was intensely studied on soils. However, knowledge of the effect of biofilms on water transport and retention of stones is limited. For this reason, three porous natural building stones: Ernzen, Euville and Savonnières, were biofouled at the outer surface with the cyanobacteria Phormidium autumnale. The colonization was estimated by spectrophotometry, and their relationship with the stones was studied by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Environmental SEM (ESEM) and optical microscopy on thin sections. Based on the European standards, the water transport properties were determined of biofouled and untreated samples.

Microscopy showed that the biofilms covered the surface while they spanned over and closed numerous pores. They had a measurable effect on water transport and retention and reduced the rate of capillary water absorption and drying in combination with higher moisture content after (vapor) sorption. Moreover, the biofilms changed the surface wettability and induced near hydrophobic conditions in a dry state while no effect was measured on the water vapor diffusion and air permeability. These changes can alter the material properties and other processes like salt weathering and freeze-thaw damage. As swelling and shrinkage were observed by ESEM, the properties and physical effects of biofilms are expected to change with fluctuating relative humidity.

How to cite: Schröer, L., De Kock, T., Godts, S., Boon, N., and Cnudde, V.: The influence of biofouling on water transport inside porous stones, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5301, 2022.

Historical buildings, which play a major role in shaping the urban fabric, are facing challenges due to climate change. Today the cultural values are considered among the main goals of sustainable development much like the social, economic and environmental values. Therefore it is important to discover the sustainable ways of conservation and maintenance practices on mitigating the impacts of climate change, so that the historical buildings can play an active role in achieving sustainable development goals without compromising their cultural and heritage values.

Nature-based solutions (NbS) are considered as sustainable and effective solutions on mitigating impacts of climate stressors. Exploring their compatibility to conservation practices can bring mutual opportunities to the urban fabric and to the historical buildings. However, nature has been considered as a threat amongst the conservation practices due to potential biodegradation of materials, obscuring the heritage structure and requiring an additional cost of maintenance. Nevertheless, many uses of nature-based solutions come across in history, e.g. in the form of turf or sod roofs that provide thermal insulation on extreme climate conditions. Today, there are some attempts to integrate NbS to heritage environments within the scope of retrofitting projects. Nevertheless, a comprehensive methodology of performance assessment on mitigating climate challenges without compromising the cultural and heritage values has not been developed yet.

This project aims to develop a decision making framework for heritage actors on evaluating the compatibility of NbS to conservation and maintenance practices of historical buildings that are exposed to adverse impacts of climate stressors in the urban context. For developing a general outline of the framework, various NbS will be evaluated and categorized based on quantitative data in the literature according to their aesthetic fit to historic buildings, their structural feasibility and their performance on mitigating the effects of climate stressors. Throughout the project, process and value based research will be conducted on carefully selected case studies. The selected case studies will be evaluated within the scope of determining the severity of the prevailing climate stressors in their context, their structural sensitivity and their adaptability capacity to the new interventions. Based on the results, the compatible NbS and design measures can be identified. In the later stages of the project, the feasibility of the proposed nature-based design for the case studies will be tested by monitoring and comparing the results before and after the implementation.

How to cite: Kale, E., De Groeve, M., and De Kock, T.: Developing a Decision Making Tool for Evaluating the Compatibility of Nature-Based Solutions to the Built Heritage, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5311, 2022.

Tuff is rich in color and is used as a stone material, and it is also a rock that forms a unique landscape in Japan, a volcanic country. However, since it is generally a fragile rock, it is susceptible to weathering and deterioration. The present study conducted an experiment to confirm the effectiveness of the surface protectant using tuff with different physical characteristics. Sodium sulfate aqueous solution was used to determine the effectiveness of protective agent application for 5 types of tuff (Oya stone, Nikka stone, Ashino stone, Tatsuyama stone, Towada stone) An experiment was conducted in which the lower 3 cm of a 5 cm × 5 cm × 15 cm specimen that had been oven-dried at 110 ° C was immersed in a salt solution, and 20 ° C-40 ° C was repeated for up to 20 cycles in a 48-hour cycle. When the weight and P-wave velocity of each specimen were measured every cycle, the solution reached the surface of the uncoated stone material for comparison, salt crystals were deposited. The surface of the specimen was peeled off, and the P-wave velocity gradually decreased.  On the other hand, in the stone material coated with the protective agent, salt crystallization was not observed even when the solution reached the top surface shortly after the start of the experiment.  The P wave velocity did not decrease, despite cracks occurred as the experiment progressed. As a result, the P-wave velocity began to decrease and the surface layer fell off. In Ashino and Tatsuyama stones, the coated specimens were more severely destroyed than the uncoated specimens. In Oya stone and Towada stone, which contain clay minerals (miso) in the form of patches, crushing proceeded from the miso part. This experiment suggests that the effect of the protective agent may depend on the rock structure and the pore diameter. In other words, for rocks containing miso, the use of a protective agent is likely to increase deterioration regardless of the pore structure. For rocks with a large proportion of micropores and low durability against salt weathering, the use of a protective agent is used. Therefore, the start time of surface exfoliation can be delayed. In addition, in rocks with a large proportion of large gaps (> 10-0.5 μm), even if crystallization occurs on the surface of the specimen. The  peeling does not occur for a while, but the protective agent penetrates deep into the thick protective agent penetration area. It is considered that the crystallization of the salt occurs more internally and the deterioration is more severe than it should be. 

How to cite: Oguchi, C. and Ikeda, Y.: Influence of rock pore structure on the protective coating against weathering, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5806, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5806, 2022.

This contribution presents the work of research and technical development for designing a novel method for monitoring and predicting the weathering of cultural heritage, in particular of stones and timber used historically as building materials.
An apparatus for long-term field tests was designed in its hardware and software components with a twofold application:

• Exposure of a set of selected stone and wood specimens to natural weathering, at different orientations (North, South, and horizontal plane) and environmental settings (Italy and Norway).
• Non-stop acquisition of microclimate data series at different resolutions, down to the scale of the specimen surface, completed by datasets of regional stations of environmental monitoring.

Complementary laboratory analyses aim at setting a reference point for the state of conservation of each material before the exposure tests, and monitoring the changes of surface recession/topography (by 3D optical profilometry), thus reconstructing the relevant deterioration trends.
Within the framework of the EU-funded project HYPERION, this novel experimental approach is expected to help assessing the interaction of building materials with the environment and their weathering constrained by microclimate and climate variability; combining climate model simulations, the stresses brought about by climate change can also be assessed. The findings might represent a source of precious information for the activities and decision-making protocols of the stakeholders involved in the protection of cultural heritage.

How to cite: Germinario, L., Coletti, C., Choidis, P., Kraniotis, D., Maritan, L., Sassi, R., Tositti, L., and Mazzoli, C.: Developing a new method for long-term monitoring of the weathering of historical building materials, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5898, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5898, 2022.

Due to hard coverage and building infrastructures, cities experience higher temperatures and higher pollution levels in their city centre relative to their less dense surroundings. This urban heat island effect is receiving an increasing amount of attention and concern. In response, cities are implementing green initiatives to mitigate elevated temperature and pollution levels, improving the health and well-being of their residents. However, the urban heat island is typically the largest in the historical core of the city, where the abundance of built heritage can make the implementation of green initiatives difficult. The dense urban fabric and the rules of conservation make such an implementation inconvenient. A major concern is how green initiatives might affect the condition of the historical building materials.

Therefore we scope the compatibility of vertical greening with built heritage, in terms of microclimatic changes, and considering impacts of salt crystallization, frost events, biodeterioration and pollutant deposition. The vertical greening represents vegetation growing along exterior walls. Either plants, rooted on the ground, climb up the facade by attaching themselves on the vertical surfaces or plants hang down from the top of the facade. Monitoring case studies in Antwerp and laboratory studies will help us investigate key changes, beneficial or adverse, in the material condition of heritage buildings. This project will develop our understanding of the relationship between the green initiatives and the historical materials in an urban area.

How to cite: De Groeve, M., Kale, E., Orr, S. A., and De Kock, T.: The effect of vertical urban greening on historical building materials, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7085, 2022.

Norway, nowadays, still preserves outstanding examples of traditional Scandinavian wooden architecture called stavkirker (i.e., stave churches), these are typical Norwegian medieval churches built since 11^th-12^th Centuries with posts and staves as load bearing elements. This homogeneous group of immovable cultural heritage share similar architectural features, construction materials, as well as tangible and intangible values. They represent the highly developed tradition of wooden buildings that extended at these latitudes during Middle Ages and incorporate a large reuse of decorative and construction elements originating from other stave churches built in earlier centuries. Besides having similar use and maintenance requirements still today, the stave churches have similar vulnerability, as well as risk assessment and preservation needs.

For their protection it becomes fundamental to analyse and predict the impact of climate change in term of expected extreme temperature and rainfall events. In fact, modification of temperature (and consequently relative humidity) and/or of precipitation amount may cause rot to the Pine wood material constituting the churches or may enhance the mechanisms of biological and mechanical decay with an ultimate loss of valuable building assets.

This contribution focuses on the whole group of the still existing 28 stave churches spread over 6 regions in centre-south Norway with different climate, from temperate continental climate/humid continental climate (Dfb in the Köppen classification) to cool continental subarctic climate (Dfc) passing through the Tundra climate (ET). The work introduces an overview of the churches` architectural categorization, location, and flood vulnerability; then it focuses on climate change impacts. For the analysis of temperature and precipitation extreme events the modelled grid data from the Norwegian Climate Service Center (https://nedlasting.nve.no/klimadata/kss)  over 1x1 km spatial resolution have been used. These forecasts have been produced using the regional climate model simulation COSMO-CLM¹ (Consortium for small scale modelling in Climate Mode) considering the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 (i.e., slow increase of concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere until 2050 followed by emission reduction over time with, in addition, a human-induced radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2). More than 100 Gb of data were elaborated to create a novel database with daily temporal resolution over two reference time periods i.e., the recent past (RP, 1991-2020) and the far future (FF, 2071-2100) for the location closest to each stave church. Further the analysis concentrates on extreme precipitation and temperature occurrences (e.g., > 99.99 percentile) investigated as cumulative distribution function (CDF) and complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). Results highlight expected anomalies in extreme events for all the 28 locations and report the total extreme precipitation and temperature related hazards as indexes which easily allow to categorize the change in risk for each stave church.

References:¹Rockel, B., Will, A., & Hense, A. (2008). The regional climate model CLM. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 17, 347–348

How to cite: Bertolin, C. and Sesana, E.: Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on the still existing 28 Norwegian Stave Churches, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7880, 2022.

This study aims to characterise the decay due to black patinas of Santalla de Bóveda Monument (Lugo, Northwest of Galicia, Spain).

Manganese is one of the most abundant elements on Earth, and the granite on which Santalla de Bóveda Monument was built (used as building material of the monument) has considerable amounts of Manganese. This monument shows black patinas on the surface of its building materials (mortars and granites).

Mortars and granite with Mn-rich black patinas were analysed in their chemical, mineralogical and petrographical properties (polarizing and scanning electron microscopes, X-ray diffraction and X-ray fluorescence). In addition, the water from springs near the monument was analysed.

According to the experimental study results, it was observed that rich Mn-oxide crusts are presumably induced by bacteria. That is, the oxidation of Mn fuels the growth of chemolithoautotrophic microorganisms, which need water to live. These patinas of biogenic Mn-oxide minerals presented different shapes, nano-dimensions, with low degree of crystallinity, and appear to be composed of manganese oxides such as birnessite, ramsdellite and groutellite. They were associated with large amounts of extracellular polymeric substances exuded by filamentous bacterial communities, which serve as nuclei for preferential precipitation of manganese oxides on the extracellular sheaths, as seen in scanning electron microscope analyses.

Mn required for patina formation likely derives from the reductive dissolution in water of Mn-rich minerals, as suggested by the mineralogy and chemistry of Mn-rich phases present in the building granite and mortars. Mn migrates to the exposed surface of building materials, where they are re-oxidized via biological processes. Patinas developing over time result from the alternation of wetting-reducing and drying-oxidizing cycles.

Water absorption, dampness and black patinas are among the most common and critical problems when it comes to decay of both cultural heritage and modern buildings. The climate and specifically the humidity are determinant for the development of Mn-rich black patinas. Results revealed that chemical composition and porosity played a major role in the development of biological activity that generates the black patinas of manganese oxides on mortars and granite.

How to cite: Freire-Lista, D. M., Blanco-Rotea, R., Costa, M. D. R., and Sanjurjo-Sánchez, J.: Mn-rich Black Patina Formation on Built Heritage in Humid Areas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8670, 2022.

Weathering is a key component of the geomorphological process system and poses a major threat to cultural heritage, such as building structures and rock art sites. Since almost all rock decay is enhanced by the presence of water, research on moisture content and flow is crucial to understanding weathering processes. Nevertheless, measuring rock moisture and its fluctuations is difficult as there is no universally used sensor that meets the requirements of non-destructiveness, reliability, repeatability, and applicability at field sites. Therefore, this work aims to evaluate several moisture measurement techniques under different natural conditions and to provide recommendations for their use. We tested seven types of methods (1D resistivity, 2D resistivity, TDR, borehole humidity, microwave reflectance, IR thermography, and uranine probes) under controlled conditions in a sandstone block that was subject to a slow wetting and drying cycle and to a series of freeze-thaw cycles.

Overall, the methods measuring dielectric properties of the rock (TDR, microwave) can be generally recommended for their reliability, repeatability, and applicability at field sites. Precise observation of moisture dynamics in deeper subsurface however remains a challenge, especially when moisture contents are close to drier states. Therefore, to get reliable water content data, it is vital to drill inside the rock rather than to use surface sensors, which are particularly sensitive to surface moisture and surface roughness. Nonetheless, out of the non-destructive surface methods, dielectric sensors using the microwave spectrum with a greater penetration depth (>10 cm) should be considered as they have the advantage of interacting the transmitted signal into a larger volume of material, therefore making the influence of surface less pronounced. Furthermore, the use of electrical resistance methods is less recommended because of mainly two factors: they need to be calibrated for each sensor pair, and they are prone to erroneous measurements in the presence of salts. Concerning the other methods, probes using a reactive dye, and borehole humidity sensors can be used to determine the location of the subsurface evaporation front where salt crystallisation takes place, and the IR imaging for studying evaporation dynamics needs either highly controlled environment or continuous measurement. In conclusion, this work provides new insights into rock moisture measurements and further research should focus on subsurface moisture measurements and the improvement and calibration of available techniques.

How to cite: Weiss, T. and Sass, O.: The challenge of measuring rock moisture: A laboratory experiment using eight types of sensors, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8814, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8814, 2022.

Water plays a vital role in the deterioration and conservation of built heritage and management problems might be aggravated by climate change. However, there is as yet no overarching framework for understanding the processes and impacts of water interacting with building materials. The term 'Heritage Hydrology' is a holistic way of conceptualising the flows and stores of water involved in deterioration of built and rock-hewn heritage. We distinguish the following basic types: (a) stone-built buildings, (b) ruins and free-standing walls, and (c) rock-hewn sites which include carved rock art and large rock sculptures. We focus on a key knowledge gap: The spatial and temporal characteristics of water flows/stores and the challenges of using currently available techniques to provide information on these characteristics.

In our selective review we provide examples of spatio-temporal patterns of moisture in stonework at different scales. We raise six key points about the state of research on heritage hydrology, from which we develop a future research agenda. (1) Three characteristics of moisture regimes are important to deterioration, i.e. presence, fluctuations and saturation thresholds. (2) There is a wide range of different heritage hydrological settings ranging from masonry building walls to natural rock slopes, and as yet no clear understanding of the commonalities vs specificities of these different settings. (3) While there is now a wide array of techniques available to measure and monitor moisture regimes in lab and field settings, the understanding of how comparable different measurement approaches are is still lacking. (4) There are now many measurements of the spatial patterning of moisture, but lack of clarity about the causes of these patterns. (5) There has been less research focusing on the temporal dynamics of moisture on heritage walls than on spatial patterns. (6) Studies combining measurement and modelling have proved particularly useful.

A research agenda for the future for heritage hydrology should focus on addressing the following broad questions: What are the best combinations of methods available to measure and model spatio-temporal patterns in moisture on built and rock-hewn heritage? What are the major factors controlling spatio-temporal patterns in moisture, also considering climatic changes? Which spatio-temporal patterns in moisture are most important for driving deterioration, and how do their respective scales interact? Tackling these research questions requires a coordinated approach, linking different research teams and methodologies. It should be based on a combination of data collected through laboratory experiments, detailed studies of test walls, and instrumented sections of walls at heritage sites. It should explore the causes and consequences of moisture regimes which provide fundamental links between climate and the deterioration of built and rock-hewn heritage.

How to cite: Sass, O. and Viles, H.: Heritage hydrology: A conceptual framework for understanding water fluxes and storage in built and rock-hewn heritage, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10024, 2022.

The risk to cultural heritage as a consequence of the impact of climate change is globally recognized, even though not exhaustively tackled with sustainable solutions and tools addressed to support policy and decision makers in the preparedness phase of risk reduction and management cycle.

This contribution aims at presenting the methodological approach applied and main results of the “Risk mapping tool for cultural heritage protection” specifically dedicated to the safeguarding of cultural heritage exposed to extreme climate changes, produced in the framework of the Interreg Central Europe STRENCH (2020 - 2022). STRENCH project is strongly based on a user-driven approach and the multidisciplinary collaboration among the scientific community, public authorities, rescue bodies and the private sector (https://www.protecht2save-wgt.eu/).

The presented tool provides hazard maps for Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin where cultural and natural heritage is exposed to heavy rain, flooding and prolonged drought. The tool enables assessing risk of cultural heritage assets based on:

• the computation of extreme changes of precipitation and temperature performed using climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI);
• the exploitation of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), together with Earth Observation-based data and products;
• the integration with outputs from Regional Climate Models from the Euro-CORDEX experiment under two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5);
• a developed methodology for identifying the main critical elements determining the vulnerability of cultural heritage;
• the ranking of the vulnerability taking into account 3 main aspects, namely the susceptibility, exposure and resilience of cultural heritage.

Preliminary results from the testing of the “risk mapping tool” at European case studies (Krems-Stein in Austria and Troja-Prague in Czech Republic) allow concluding on the feasibility and applicability of the tool presented in the perspective of optimizing preparedness strategies and mitigating the risk of cultural heritage subject to climate change related actions.

In conclusion, the STRENCH project, through the implementation of its outputs, is expected to proactively target the needs and requirements of stakeholders and policymakers responsible for disaster mitigation and safeguarding of cultural heritage assets and to foster the active involvement of citizens and local communities in the decision-making process.

How to cite: Sardella, A., Natali, S., Cacciotti, R., Drdácký, M., and Bonazza, A.: A risk assessment tool for the protection of cultural heritage exposed to extreme climate events., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11582, 2022.

The climate of the city of Tønsberg in Norway is cold and humid. As a result, the brick-made historic buildings in this city are threatened by frost damage. Climate change is expected to affect the action of this degradation mechanism. In the current research, climate data resulting from the REMO2015 driven by the global model MPI-ESM-LR were used for periods 1960-69, 2010-2019, and 2060-69 representing the past, present, and future climate conditions. In addition, data from the ERA5 reanalysis for the present conditions, 2010-19, were used to assess the accuracy of the climate model data. Given the climate excitations, the freeze-thaw events were calculated according to two climate indices, i) the events of temperature decrease below 0^oC and ii) by considering that freezing occurs below -3^oC and thawing occurs above 1^oC. Moreover, a material response-based index that takes into account the temperature and the moisture content of a 5mm layer in the exterior side of the wall assembly was calculated. Prior to its calculation proper hygrothermal simulations were performed. According to this index, the critical temperature and degree of saturation that characterize a freeze-thaw event are 0^oC and 25%, respectively. From the climate model data and the first climate index, the 0^oC crossings that were calculated are 400, 340, and 223 under the past, present, and future conditions, respectively. The respective number of the freeze-thaw events that were calculated by using the second climate index are 49, 31, and 27 which are significantly lower. From the data obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis, the number of freeze-thaw events that were calculated is 425 and 123 for the first and the second climate index, respectively. This difference is attributed to the underestimation of the air temperature in the climate model data, which results in a lower number of temperatures hovering around the examined thresholds during winter. The results of the material response-based index show a minor frost risk for the brick-made wall assemblies which is reduced through the years. The southeast-oriented walls were the ones with the highest exposure to driving rain and the greatest frost damage risk. For this orientation, the number of freeze-thaw events was 6, 3, and 2 under past, present, and future conditions, respectively. Moreover, according to the ERA5 reanalysis, only 1 freeze-thaw event was calculated. This is attributed to the fact that the climate model overestimates significantly the precipitation and the relative humidity compared to the ERA5 reanalysis. In conclusion, it is worth mentioning that both the climate-based and the material response-based indices define a decreasing trend of the frost damage risk of historic brick-made walls due to climate change. The use of the material response-based index is suggested for a more accurate assessment of the frost damage which can further support proper adaptation measures. Finally, the quality of the results can be improved by using climate data from more climate models and applying bias correction or morphing methodologies on the climate files to avoid systematic errors.

How to cite: Choidis, P. and Kraniotis, D.: Climate-based and material response-based approaches for the impact assessment of climate change on the frost damage of historic brick walls in Tønsberg, Norway., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12070, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12070, 2022.

Dust is one of the main pollutants that settle on historic structures and cause the blackening of stone surfaces. The stone facades of historic buildings became dark, and besides its aesthetic alteration, dust deposition and subsequent chemical reactions led to the deterioration of the construction material. The composition of dust changes in time due to climate change, clean air acts and changes in transportation, industrial activities and heat. The present study tries to detect the temporal changes in the composition of dust by using a stone buildings as dust traps in Budapest. The studied historic building is more than one hundred years old, and no façade cleaning was done in the past century. Visual inspection of the city centre building suggested that dust accumulation show a distinct pattern representing differences in the vertical profile in terms of thickness and colour. Dust samples were collected from layer to layer representing newly settled and historical dust. Scaffolds were made to reach the various elevations of the building facades. Besides the dust, host rock samples were also picked to detect textural and compositional changes of the porous oolitic limestone material. The textural-mineralogical analyses (XRD, SEM) and chemical compositional tests (XRF, LA-ICP-MS) provide evidence of changes in composition of dust with time. In all host rock samples, gypsum was detected but in various proportions. Good correlations were also found between water-soluble calcium and gypsum content and between sulphate and gypsum content both for black crusts and host rocks, forming two distinct fields in calcium vs gypsum and sulphate vs gypsum graphs. Gypsum was also found in the dust either as a primary or as a secondary mineral phase. Metals, transition metals and water-soluble ions also occur in various concentrations in different layers of dust. The detected elements primarily include  Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu, Cr, Pb, Ni. From soluble salts, chloride, nitrate and sulphate were also detected. The changes in elemental and ionic concentrations reflect temporal changes in dust composition and provide indirect evidence for air quality changes and air pollution levels.

How to cite: Török, Á.: Compositional changes of settling dust in time on buildings in Budapest: centennial evidence of air pollution trends, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12113, 2022.

Legacy deposits of by-product slag from iron and steel making create significant volumes of artificial ground around the world. Composed mainly of calcium-silicate mineral phases, experimental studies have shown the potential of slag for capturing atmospheric CO₂ by mineralisation (e.g. Huijgen et al. 2005). Renforth (2019) calculated that steel slag could capture ~370-400 kg CO₂ per tonne of slag, depending on the type of slag. ~0.5 Gt of steelmaking slag is produced every year (USGS 2018) and this could potentially reach ~2 Gt yr^-1 by the end of the century (Renforth 2019). In addition to new slag, there is an estimated 160 million m³ of legacy slag in the UK alone (Riley et al. 2020), stockpiled or dumped from historical steelmaking.

Artificial ground poses challenges around ground stability but slag-dominated artificial ground also offers opportunities for atmospheric CO₂ drawdown. In this contribution, we document the lithification of legacy slag deposits – conversion of loose gravelly slag material into a rock-like mass through cementation of calcite via drawdown of atmospheric CO₂.

Parts of slag heaps at our case study sites (Glengarnock and Warton, UK) have a lithified nature: gravel-to-cobble sized lumps of slag are visible but have been cemented together with a mineral cement, with an appearance not unlike a natural breccia rock. We present field, X-Ray Diffraction and δ¹³C data from these case study sites to document the lithification of slag-dominated artificial ground through mineralisation of atmospheric CO₂ as a cementing phase; we present scanning electron microscope data to show the microstructural evolution of this lithification. This understanding has implications for artificial ground stabilisation and how atmospheric CO₂ drawdown can be harnessed in this process.

References

Huijgen et al., 2005, ES&T, 39, 9676-9682

Renforth, 2019, Nat. Comms., 10, 1401

Riley et al., 2020, J. Geochem. Exp., 219, 106630

USGS, 2018, USGS Minerals Yearbook

How to cite: MacDonald, J. and Brolly, C.: Lithification of slag-dominated artificial ground through atmospheric CO2 drawdown, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-790, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-790, 2022.

Anthropogenic substrates are produced as waste materials and/or by-products of various industries. Such substrates include: blast furnace/steel slag; colliery spoil; oil shale spoil; and paper mill sludge (Ash et al. 1994; Riley et al. 2020). Historically, in the UK, these substrates were dumped in or close to the sites where they were being produced (Riley et al. 2020). Many examples of anthropogenic substrate sites still exist in the UK, despite the fact that there has been much cultural motivation to restore these sites (Ash et al. 1994; Bradshaw, 1995; Riley et al. 2020). This often results in either the total removal of anthropogenic substrate, or the covering of anthropogenic substrate with a clay cap/similar natural substrate. However, if left undisturbed, such sites could potentially provide undisturbed spaces for wildlife.

Various studies have been carried out which demonstrate that wildlife, including unusual and/or important species communities, can colonise and live on anthropogenic substrate sites (Ash et al. 1994; Riley et al. 2020). It is important to note that because anthropogenic substrate often differs greatly from the natural substrate in the surrounding area, such sites can support species and communities which might not otherwise survive in that area. For example, plants that rely on calcareous substrates might settle on slag sites or on Solvay process waste sites, but might not otherwise settle in the area if natural calcareous substrate is absent (Ash et al. 1994). Anthropogenic substrate sites can, therefore, act as refugia for many species and communities.

This study investigates three important aspects of anthropogenic substrate sites: substrate chemistry and mineralogy; plant species and communities; and certain invertebrate species. The investigation of these aspects allows for a detailed study of both anthropogenic geodiversity and biodiversity. For the substrates, various analyses will be carried out to determine the minerals, elements and pH levels present, including X-ray Diffraction, ICP and pH analysis for the six study sites. Different plant communities, as well as the species within them, were recorded in 2021 using quadrats in the six study sites. Different invertebrate species were recorded in 2021, throughout three of the study sites. Due to the current biodiversity crisis, it is more important than ever before to record and assess the biodiversity of places, especially if such places are often overlooked in terms of biodiversity potential. Additionally, very few studies have investigated the relationships between plant species and the mineralogical and elemental composition of the substrates on which they are growing – this work helps us to investigate plant establishment, survival and growth on anthropogenic substrates in a novel manner.

Ash et al., 1994, J. Appl. Ecology, 71, 74-78

Riley et al., 2020, J. Geochem. Explor., 219, 106630

Bradshaw, 1995, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 53, 3-9

How to cite: van Mesdag, S., MacDonald, J., Neill, I., and Jump, A.: Anthropogenic biodiversity and geodiversity – can legacy industrial waste help offset falling global biodiversity?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1352, 2022.

Bauxite residue, the by-product produced in the alumina industry, is generated at an estimated global rate of approximately 150 million tonnes per annum. Currently, the reuse of bauxite residue is low (∼2%), and consequently the bulk is stored in land-based impoundments.

If not adequately managed, exposed residue may be prone to dusting, wind and water erosion and can contaminate surrounding areas. Establishing vegetation covers (rehabilitation) is viewed as an effective strategy for mitigating against pollution risk and approaches used can be broadly divided into capping with inert soil material or establishing vegetation in the tailings surface (revegetation). Revegetation provides a strategy where topsoil material is scarce and avoids the sourcing of large volumes from other sites.

While bauxite residue is typically alkaline (pH 10-12), saline and lacking in nutrients the implementation of effective rehabilitation strategies can promote favourable soil conditions for plant growth. Results also show establishment of soil microbial communities and soil faunal activity. These positive rehabilitation effects are maintained for several years and demonstrate that residue can be transformed to a soil-like medium capable of supporting ecosystem function.

How to cite: Courtney, R.: Technosols derived from bauxite residue tailings for effective revegetation and rehabilitation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2318, 2022.

The leaching of heavy metals from post-industrial slag and other anthropogenic waste sites is detrimental for human health and the wider environment. Remediation of these sites can be costly and sustainable low carbon solutions are preferably sought. Examining natural analogues which stabilize metals could provide valuable insights into low-cost solutions to the legacy problems of aquatic environments that are impacted by leaching. Calcareous tufa, sometimes known as travertine limestone, forms naturally when calcium-rich groundwater is exchanged with atmospheric CO₂ at mid to hyperalkaline pH resulting in a calcite (CaCO₃) precipitation. Tufa has also been observed to form at a small number of old industrial sites (e.g. mining, steel works, paper mills) across northern England and Scotland. One site of interest is at Consett, N.E England, UK. Here tufa precipitates in the Howden Burn stream, a tributary of the River Derwent, as it emerges from the slag heaps from old steel work’s. Bulk analysis shows lead, arsenic, vanadium and zinc are present in the Howden Burn up to several 100 ppm.  Analysis of the water downstream of the tufa shows metal concentrations are considerably reduced compared to concentrations upstream. High spatial resolution LA-ICP-MS analysis of the solid tufa sampled reveal metals present within the tufa structure. This leads to the hypothesis that the metals are precipitated together with the tufa during its formation. However, little is known about metal capture processes during tufa formation and the form that these metals are in.  Here we present synchrotron micro X-ray fluorescence (μ-XRF) element maps of the tufa in cross-section that show the distributions of the metal within the laminations of the tufa structure. Understanding and exploitation of artificial tufa for metal capture could have potential as a CO₂ positive solution for sustainable in-stream remediation. 

How to cite: Cumberland, S., Tierney, K., Renshaw, J., Geraki, K., and MacDonald, J.: Analysis of metal entrapment within anthropogenic tufa using synchrotron micro-XRF, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4044, 2022.

The production of iron and steel has generated substantial volumes of slag as waste, with estimates of up to 384 million tonnes (Mt) of iron slag and 280 Mt of steel slag produced globally, to date. Whilst the majority of these by-products (approximately 70 %) have seen bulk re-use in a number of applications (e.g. as ballast in construction applications), a significant volume of slag has been disposed of in environmental settings, where the release of metal-rich alkaline leachates can cause enduring pollution. However, the mineralogical and physical properties of slags also offer opportunity for environmental benefits, namely; through sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, by acting as stockpiles of critical raw materials, and in certain situations performing as incidental coastal defences.

Findings are presented from national-scale field investigations, laboratory experiments, and spatial data analyses, which aim to explore the resource potential of iron and steel slags in the United Kingdom (UK). Within the 236 Mt of slags disposed of in the UK environment, projected carbonation rates revealed a potential for uptake of 138 Mt CO₂ under enhanced weathering conditions. Notable masses of technologically-critical elements were also estimated within UK slags, with reserves in the region of 1.55 Mt of V₂O₅, 1.58 Mt of TiO₂, and 1.26 Mt of Cr₂O₃ estimated. Further to acting as a resource, in areas of coastal deposition, slag banks were observed to offer tidal protection. At a number of sites this allowed the development of nationally-significant ecological communities, whilst laboratory leaching experiments reveal a very low risk of chemical leaching in saline conditions. The integration of spatial analyses with chemical composition and leaching data can help to inform decisions on maximising resource potential whilst minimising the potential environmental risks associated with slag reworking.

How to cite: Riley, A., Onnis, P., Gandy, C., MacDonald, J., Burke, I., Renforth, P., Jarvis, A., Hudson-Edwards, K., and Mayes, W.: Iron and steel-making slags as an environmentally-beneficial resource; a UK perspective., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4137, 2022.

Mineral sequestration using solid alkaline by-products, such as steel slag, is a feasible technology to capture carbon dioxide. This silicate weathering reaction forms solid carbonates, mineralizing the atmospheric CO₂ into calcite, which can occur passively under ambient environmental conditions over monthly to decadal timescales. The passive mineralization of carbon dioxide in steel slag is a not well-known reaction, particularly when climate factors influence the mineral carbonation. Non-destructive quantification of CO₂ mineralization is necessary to set underpinning knowledge on capturing rates.

The utilisation of X-ray micro-Computed Tomography (XCT) allows the 3D spatial visualisation and quantification of carbon dioxide precipitated as calcite in steel slag pores. We used XCT to analyse samples of legacy steel slag collected in Mexico and Scotland, to determine the effects of environmental factors on mineral carbonation. The XCT data were analysed with image processing to classify the slag volume into three phases (slag, pores, and calcite). The classification of the data into different phases allows the determination of the volume of each phase in the sample as well as its 3D spatial extent, thus enabling the quantification of mineralized CO₂ characterized as the calcite phase.

We will present a comparison between the volumes of carbon dioxide passively mineralized in the samples from the Mexican and Scottish collection sites, in the context of contrasting environmental factors. Preliminary results from one of the Scottish samples shows that calcite (mineralized CO₂) accounts for  ~ 5 vol. % of the sample, and it is localised across the whole sample.  A comparison of these results between the Mexican and Scottish samples will provide a better understanding of how climatic factors influence the volumes of atmospheric CO₂ mineralized by the samples. 

How to cite: Del Angel Lozano, J. P., Macente, A., and MacDonald, J.: The utilisation of X-ray Micro-Computed Tomography (XCT) for the quantification of carbon dioxide in passively carbonated steel slag., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4645, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4645, 2022.

Soils have high pCO₂ because of the decay of organic matter and plant root respiration. Some of this CO₂ dissolves to form carbonic acid in soil waters. Natural weathering partially neutralizes this carbonic acid, but in recent years there has been much interest in using soil mineral and rock amendments (e.g. added olivine and basalt) to accelerate weathering-driven atmospheric CO₂ drawdown to counter rising atmospheric CO₂.  To be effective, accelerated weathering should result in increased dissolved bicarbonate (the main dissolved inorganic carbon carrier at circum-neutral pH) in drainage waters, as well as enhanced land-to-ocean fluxes of divalent metal cations such as Ca and Mg, ultimately to lock up the soil-derived inorganic carbon in marine limestones. Here we present new results for field experiments that investigate a novel soil amendment to sequester CO₂ from soil-gas via weathering; crushed returned concrete (CRC). Unlike previously investigated mafic and ultramafic materials for accelerated weathering approaches that generally require energy- and carbon-intensive mining, grinding and long-distance transport operations, CRC is a waste product that requires minimal crushing after post-return solidification at concrete plants to achieve high measured specific surface areas (c. 10 m²/g).  CRC is widely available globally because a few % of the >10Gt/year of concrete produced is typically returned unused to concrete ready-mix plants.  Engineering codes preclude the reincorporation of this waste as aggregate in new concrete in many jurisdictions. This results in the widescale availability of this highly weatherable alkaline waste product that is often landfilled or sold as a low-value construction fill.  Local availability of the material facilitates short haulage distances and relatively small energy and carbon footprints to transport the material to nearby field sites.  In this pilot study, CRC was added to the upper 15 cms of a one-hectare trial tillage field in SE Ireland at a rate of 10 tonnes/hectare. Soil-water solutions were extracted for analysis using suction-cup lysimeters at monthly intervals from the amended and adjacent non-amended control sites to determine the geochemical impact of CRC on soil waters and to calculate weathering and therefore CO₂ uptake rates via carbonic acid neutralisation. Relative to adjacent control sites, concrete-amended sites exhibited significant increases in soil-water pH (by 0.2 to 0.5 pH units), a two- to three-fold increase in electrical conductivity (total ion load) and similar increases in soil-water Ca²⁺, reflecting the weathering of portlandite and calcium silicates in the concrete. Field experiments are ongoing to assess the long-term effects of the concrete amendment on soil-water chemistry, soil pH and nutrient status. No increases in detrimental heavy metals (e.g. Ni, Cr) often associated with the use of mafic and ultramafic materials as soil amendments have been detected. Weathering is attributable entirely to carbonic acid neutralization, with no evidence for weathering by strong acids. Methods for the calculation of likely rates of CO₂ capture (tonnes CO₂ per tonne of amendment) and their associated uncertainties based on alkalinity increases, divalent metal exports and enhanced soil-leachable Ca will be discussed. 

How to cite: McDermott, F., Bryson, M., and van Acken, D.: An investigation of crushed returned concrete (CRC) as a soil amendment for atmospheric CO2 removal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4824, 2022.

Ultramafic (Mg-rich) mine wastes are produced in vast quantities, are of no economic value, and their storage impoundments can be susceptible to catastrophic failure.¹ Carbon dioxide (CO₂) mineralization of these wastes to form carbonate cement can reduce greenhouse gas emissions² and assist in de-risking storage impoundments through physical stabilization.³ CO₂ mineralization and cementation have been documented at asbestos,⁴ nickel,² and diamond mines, occurring unintentionally over long periods (e.g., decades).^2,4 This research aimed to 1) better understand carbonation and cementation processes by examining historic kimberlite mine wastes from diamond mines and 2) accelerate these processes in experiments using brucite-bearing serpentinite mine wastes. 

We collected physical, mineralogical, and geochemical data of cemented historic kimberlite wastes 70 to >110 years old. Analysis of cemented fine- and coarse-grained residues from the Voorspoed and Cullinan diamond mines (South Africa) revealed the presence of a fine-grained (<63 µm) cement matrix with greater total inorganic carbon (TIC; +0.08–0.34% relative to clasts), secondary clays (e.g., Mg-Al silicates), and some minor carbonates (e.g., calcite). Unconfined compressive strength varied considerably between fine- and coarse-grained wastes (UCS; 0.13–4.45 MPa). Furthermore, kimberlite clasts and cements were isotopically distinct, suggesting that mineral weathering by meteoric water drove cementation over decades after the deposition of these wastes. 

In experiments, coupling organic and inorganic carbon cycling accelerated carbonation of synthetic tailings that contained brucite [Mg(OH)₂], a minor yet reactive mineral. In cylindrical test experiments (2.5 × 5 cm; 40 weeks), waste organics were either mixed (0–10 wt.%) or kept separate from brucite-bearing serpentinite mine wastes to provide an additional source of CO₂. In the mixed cylinders, brucite consumption ranged from 3–30% and was limited by CO₂ generation, as evidenced by minor increases in TIC (+0.02–0.22%). Compressive strengths amongst the cylinders reached 0.51 MPa with few cylinders becoming sufficiently stabilized; however, in experiments that exposed cylinders to CO₂ generated from organics separate from cylinders, brucite carbonation (64–84% consumption) and compressive strengths were substantial (0.4–6.9 MPa).³ Our research demonstrates the role of long-term weathering for sequestering CO₂ within ultramafic mine wastes, and how coupling organic and inorganic carbon cycling can accelerate CO₂ sequestration and physically stabilize these wastes. 

References: 

1. Rourke and Luppnow (2015), Tailings Mine Waste Manag., 225–230. 
2. Wilson et al. (2014), Int. J. Greenh. Gas Control 25, 121–140. 
3. Power et al. (2021), Environ. Sci. Technol. 55, 10056–10066. 
4. Wilson et al. (2009), Econ. Geol. 104, 95–112.

How to cite: Lockhart, J., Power, I., Paulo, C., Stubbs, A., and McDonald, D.: Carbonation and cementation of ultramafic mine wastes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6308, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6308, 2022.

CO₂ mineralization is a natural process that occurs during weathering of silicate materials that are calcium/magnesium-rich and aluminum-poor (Kelemen et al., 2020). During this process, silicates convert to carbonates, making silicate-rich materials such as ultramafic rocks and alkaline wastes suitable for CO₂ removal from air.  Using slag to sequester CO₂ is particularly attractive as it is a by-product of a key industry, and it can utilize CO₂ from the emission source, therefore reducing the need for CO₂ and slag transportation, or draw down of CO₂ already in the atmosphere. It is estimated that steel slag has the potential to capture ~150-250 Mt CO₂ yr^-1 now, and ~320-870 Mt CO₂ yr^-1 by 2100 (Renforth, 2019).

Although the chemical composition of alkaline wastes shows that CO₂ capture can significantly offset emissions from corresponding industries, recent observations reveal that the CO₂ uptake in alkaline wastes in underutilized (Pullin et al., 2019). Here, we use image-based analysis to understand the microstructures of CO₂ mineralization in slag. We use X-ray Computed Tomography (XCT) to visualize slag internal structures and to calculate reactive surface area and pore connectivity. We then use scanning electron microscopy (SEM), coupled with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) to study the distribution of elements within the studied sample.

In our study, we use a slag sample collected from the former Ravenscraig Steelworks in Lanarkshire, Scotland, where steelmaking took place from 1950s until 1992 (Stewart, 2008), leaving behind a slag heap that has been weathering since then. Our analysis demonstrates that calcium carbonate precipitates as pore-lining. Surface passivation and low surface-connected porosity were identified as processes that can cause reduction in CO₂ uptake.

References

Kelemen, P.B., McQueen, N., Wilcox, J., Renforth, P., Dipple, G., Vankeuren, A.P., 2020. Engineered carbon mineralization in ultramafic rocks for CO2 removal from air: Review and new insights. Chem. Geol. 550, 119628. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2020.119628

Pullin, H., Bray, A.W., Burke, I.T., Muir, D.D., Sapsford, D.J., Mayes, W.M., Renforth, P., 2019. Atmospheric Carbon Capture Performance of Legacy Iron and Steel Waste. Environ. Sci. Technol. 53, 9502–9511. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b01265

Renforth, P., 2019. The negative emission potential of alkaline materials. Nat. Commun. 10, 1401. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09475-5

Stewart, D., 2008. Fighting for Survival: The 1980s Campaign to Save Ravenscraig Steelworks. J. Scottish Hist. Stud. 25, 40–57. https://doi.org/10.3366/JSHS.2005.25.1.40

How to cite: Khudhur, F. W. K., Macente, A., MacDonald, J., and Daly, L.: Passive CO2 mineralisation in slag: evidence from a slag heap in Lanarkshire, Scotland., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6525, 2022.

Uncontrolled leaching from legacy industrial waste may release toxic elements, which poses long-term risks of water and soil contamination. In some situations, secondary mineralisation from the leachates may occur downstream from waste sites, thus potentially limiting contaminant migration. An example is tufa, a surface freshwater CaCO₃ (calcite) deposit which forms as a result of atmospheric CO₂ absorption into Ca-rich hyperalkaline leachates. The tufa develops a range of morphologies and varies in hardness across the deposit. Moreover, it may also incorporate other elements into its mineral structure during precipitation. Understanding the processes of secondary mineralisation which are able to capture toxic metals would provide beneficial insights into controlling hazardous leaching.

This work characterises tufa occurring within anthropogenic contexts. Several tufas were found forming on or adjacent to anthropogenic sites (colliery spoil and steel slag heaps) in central Scotland, UK and studied for their geochemistry. A combination of direct field measurements of water physico-chemistry is complemented by alkalinity and elemental analyses of leachate source, water and tufa by ion chromatography (IC) and ICP-OES. The results from these analyses will help understand the processes involved in tufa formation and can be applied to the re-creation of tufa with the purpose of metal capture under controlled laboratory conditions. Early experiments have focused on CaCO₃ precipitation onto different media by bubbling CO₂ into CaCl₂ solutions. The aim of these experiments is to create an engineered metal-capturing tufa system which can be applied across different post-industrial settings as a low-cost technique which beneficially captures CO₂.

How to cite: Kalabová, M., Cumberland, S., Renshaw, J., and MacDonald, J.: Anthropogenic tufa at legacy industrial sites: Potential for metal capture, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8116, 2022.

The development of civilization is accompanied by a continuous increase in the production of various types of waste, especially municipal solid waste (MSW). The problem of rational MSW management has become one of the most pressing global challenges [1].

The countries which joined the EU in the middle of the last century can serve as examples of establishing effective MSW management systems. Presently, the amount of recycled MSW in these countries is rather high: recycling constitutes – 30–40%; incineration – 30–50%; composting – 18–20%; the amount of MSW disposed of at a landfill has been reduced to 1–3%. All these factors made it possible to increase the MSW revenues in Germany 4.8 times over the last 25 years; in Sweden – 3.29 times; in Denmark – 2.76 times, and in the Netherlands – 3.06 times.

Based on the above data, a conclusion can be made about the expediency of implementing MSW management in Russia.  

Thus, if we consider the creation of such a system for Saint Petersburg generating 1.82 million tons of MSW annually and recycling 40% of MSW, incinerating 35%, composting 23% and landfilling 2%, then an estimated revenue from the implementation of secondary raw materials can be determined:

C=M₁xC₁+M₂xC₂+M₃xC₃-M₄xC₄

where: M₁ – the mass of MSW realized by the allocation of secondary raw materials, M₂ – incineration, M₃ – composting, M₄ – landfill,

C₁ – specific revenue from the implementation of secondary raw materials, C₁=1254  ruble/tonne [2],

C₂ – МSW incineration, C₂=850  ruble/tonne [3],

C₃ – MSW composting, C₃=400  ruble/tonne [2],

C₄ – MSW disposal, C₄=350  ruble/tonne [2].

The amount of MSW in Saint Petersburg (million tons): secondary raw materials – 0,72,  energy – 0,65, compost – 0,418, landfill – 0,032.

Then the revenue from the implementation of secondary raw materials per annual volume of MSW in Saint Petersburg will be:

C = 902,288 + 535,5 + 165,6 – 12,6 = 1,590,788 million rubles.

The specific revenue indicator for Saint Petersburg MSW per person is as follows:

C_p=1590,788/5,392992=294,9 ruble/person.

In order to implement the considered option of a city-wide program, it is necessary to establish the following enterprises:

– processing of secondary raw materials – four plants with a capacity of 180 thousand tons each;

– МSW incineration – four plants with a capacity of 160 thousand tons each;

– MSW composting – two plants with a capacity of 207 thousand tons each;

– MSW disposal – two landfills with a capacity of 18 thousand tons each.

Conclusion

• The established systems of MSW management in European countries are highly economically efficient, processing 97–98% of the produced MSW.
• The creation of a similar MSW management system in Saint Petersburg will significantly improve the environmental conditions of the city and generate 1,590,788 million rubles in revenue annually.

References

• L.S. Ventsiulis, A.N. Chusov. Municipal Solid Waste is One of the Main Environmental Problems in Russia. Saint Petersburg: Polytechnic University Press, 2017. – page 208.
• Program to improve the system of collection, transportation and disposal of waste in the Primorsky district of Saint Petersburg. Estimation of revenue from the processing of separately collected waste, 2011.
• D.I. Kofman, M.M. Vostrikov. Thermal Destruction and Neutralization of Waste. Saint Petersburg, NPO Professional, 2013. – page 340.

How to cite: Voronov, N. and Ventsyulis, L.: Economic efficiency of sales of municipal solid waste based on the development of the regional market of certified secondary raw materials, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8727, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8727, 2022.

Clinker substitutes are frequently used in the cement and concrete industries to reduce CO₂ emissions associated with production, improve physico-chemical properties and performance, and reduce costs. Pulversized Fly Ash (PFA), a fine waste residue produced in coal-fired power stations, is the commonly used partial clinker substitute in Ordinary Portland cement (OPC) for cements for the immobilisation of low-level nuclear waste (LLW). Because of the global trend to shut-down coal-fired power stations, the production of PFA is decreasing and will eventually cease. Alternative sustainable clinker substitutes can be used must meet strict performance standards for the safe enclosure of LLW for the final disposal. These include physical, chemical, and mechanical properties; performance and suitability for use.

This study investigates the suitability of different materials (natural and anthropologic) as a substitute of PFA in OPC in LLW immobilisation, and compares the behaviour of these substituted cements to those of the current standard. The focus of the study is on the cementing and physico-chemical properties of the cement, and the interaction between groundwater, the cement, and the stored waste.

Here we present the characterisation the standard PFA+OPC (samples provided by Low-Level Waste Repository Ltd.) using X-ray computed tomography (XCT), and the latest data from the ongoing analysis elemental composition of the alternative materials and the leaching tests. Over the leaching period the samples undergo repeated XCT analysis to link structural changes to the chemical evolution. Future work will include studying the long-term leaching effects and the interaction of the LLW (usage mock waste formulation) with concrete.

These studies will allow us to identify changes to the cement microstructure and physico-chemical properties arising from the PFA substitutes, and the chemical and physical interaction of the cements, especially with groundwater Such understanding is critical for the adoption of clinker alternatives in LLW encapsulation.

How to cite: Kozlowski, A., Renshaw, J., and Dobson, K.: Replacing Pulversized Fly Ash in cement with natural and anthropogenic geomaterials identifying the corresponding physico-chemical properties used for the encapsulation of Low-Level Waste, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11448, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11448, 2022.

The building sector needs to shift toward the use of materials that have low-embodied energy, minimize operational-energy, and minimize the amount of waste upon disposal. Here, we report on a series of experiments on low-density earth-hemp blocks, which can be implemented as an insulation for buildings. Earth-hemp finds a similar usage to hempcrete/hemp-lime, yet the use of raw earth as a binder allows to dramatically decrease the embodied energy. The set presented here evidences that pure earth-hemp with high content in clay minerals reaches higher compressive strength (0,33 MPa) than equivalents with hydraulic binder, for similar thermal conductivity (0,07 W/m.K).

Earth-hemp samples were characterized in terms of compressive strength in order to test the influence of density, earth type, incorporation of mineral additives, and amount of water used for creating the blocks. Two types of natural earths were investigated, which differ in their clay content: a surficial loess with 25 wt.% clay minerals and a quarried paleosoil with high clay content (65 wt.%). For each earth type, 4 types of mineral additives were investigated in order to test whether they can have a stabilizing effect: Portland cement, aerial-lime, gypsum-plaster and a MgO-based cement. The binders (i.e. earth + additive) were created with replacement of earth by mineral additives at 0, 4, 8, and 20 wt. %. For each type of binder, 3 densities of the resulting earth-hemp samples were produced (250, 280, 340 kg/m3). Additionally, two series of this set of samples were produced using a low amount of added water (150 wt.% water/hemp) and high amount of added water (370 wt.% water/hemp).

Samples using the earth with high clay content have compressive strengths up to twice as high as those with low clay content. This result is expected since clay minerals are the main agent of binding in earth materials. Also expected was the increase in compressive strength with sample density, which is directly correlated to the amount of binder. More interestingly, the dataset also exhibits the negative effect of mineral additives: a trend of decreasing compressive strength with amount of incorporated mineral additive is visible, independently of the type of additive and earth type. In between additive types, the compressive strengths of samples mixed with MgO-based cement and gypsum-plaster are better than those mixed with Portland cement and aerial lime. Additionally, samples produced using a low amount of added water are much less resistant than those with a high amount of added water for every sample tested. Finally, samples using pure earth with high clay content and high amount of incorporated water are the most resistant, and reach compressive strengths of 0.33 MPa for a density of 340 kg/m3, which is slightly stronger than existing commercial lime-hemp blocks. 

How to cite: Douillet, G. A., Toropovs, N., Zucha, W. J., Bernard, E., Kühnis, A., and Schlunegger, F.: The compressive strength of earth-hemp blocks tested with different densities, earth types, and cementitious binders, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12781, 2022.

Our research is aligned to the expansion of energy crops with a view to future developments in greenhouse gas removal and we need to ensure that does not have a detrimental effect on the surrounding environment.

Miscanthus is a sustainable bioenergy crop which is wildlife-friendly and will grow on otherwise unproductive land. Mature crops do not require fertilizer thereby ensuring low nitrous oxide emissions. Miscanthus x giganteus (M x g) as a sterile clone, has been propagated vegetatively, with relatively high establishment costs and low multiplication rates. New seed-propagated hybrids, with the potential of upscaling the crop for greater provision, are being readied for market and in crop trials over Europe.

Projections are presented from research involving the international GRACE project and the Supergen SUMMER project. We determine the potential for miscanthus growth and environmental impact, using the hybrids under 21st century climate conditions. We show yield projections which have been modelled using crop trial data across different European countries together with simulations from the MiscanFor model for agricultural soil carbon sequestration and water deficit.

How to cite: Shepherd, A., Awty-Carroll, D., Kam, J., Ashman, C., Magenau, E., Martani, E., Kontek, M., Ferrarini, A., Amaducci, S., Davey, C., Al Hassan, M., Jurišić, V., Lamy, I., Lewandowski, I., de Maupeou, E., McCalmont, J., Trindade, L., Kiesel, A., Clifton-Brown, J., and Hastings, A. and the Anita Shepherd1: Comparing miscanthus hybrids – growth and environmental impacts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-170, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-170, 2022.

We determined the bee species presence, abundance, and diversity at utility-scale ground-mounted solar development (USS) to assess the impact on desert pollinators and the services they provide to the plants in the communities in which they live, specifically, in the Mojave and Colorado Desert regions.  We used a matched transect control design to test whether pollinator populations have changed due to solar utility scale installations. Sixty to 90% of flowering plants require animal pollinators. The Mojave Desert represents a hotspot of bee biodiversity corresponding to its rich botanical diversity of 1512 species. Our study found 113 species in a severe drought year after five drought years (2011-2015). 42% were oligoleges, 10% were polylectic and 29% of the  lacked data on their floral diets. Included were 5 undescribed species in the families Apidae (Tetraloniella, Anthophora -Anthophoroides, Anthophorula,) and Halictidae (Lasioglossum [Dialictus]). In our transect study we found lower abundance, diversity and richness inside the solar installations. However, we did not find a significant effect of distance from solar installation at 2K for our one year study. The BVT traps represented 16% of the collected specimens and 58 species and cup traps represented 83% of traps, and captured 46.7% of the total specimens and 66 species.Of the total bees species captured and identified, 76% are ground-nesting species.

How to cite: Saul-Gershenz, L., Zavortink, T., Van Wyk, J., Ascher, J. S., and Kimsey, L.: Impact on native bees from utility-scale solar development in the Mojave and western Sonoran Deserts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1881, 2022.

As countries transition to net zero emissions, the number of land use conflicts between energy generation, nature conservation and food production are expected to rise. Models typically restrict energy deployment from land deemed as providing high societal value (e.g. National Parks, peatland) when exploring future energy pathways to resolve these conflicts. This study applies the spatially explicit ADVENT-NEV model to Great Britain to determine the lower-bound of the implied value being placed on the land excluded. It compares the ‘optimal’ locations for new renewable energy when strict restrictions are applied against those identified when a natural capital approach is used.

When energy development is restricted from Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty, National Parks and high-grade agricultural land the cost of the energy system is shown to increase by approximately 10%. Even limited bioenergy crop expansion is unfeasible if strict restrictions are applied. In particular, results indicate that such restrictions would not be compatible with net zero emissions targets. These restrictions also result in an increase in the spatial footprint of solar farms, wind farms and bioenergy power stations by up to 13.4%, 79.6% and 15.8% respectively.

Incorporating the valuation of ecosystem services into renewable energy modelling provides a more nuanced approach than a binary exclusion, highlighting how strict restrictions may not always be best for society. The natural capital approach makes trade-offs between energy, nature conservation and food production more explicit for decision-makers allowing them to take a more holistic approach.

How to cite: Delafield, G., Day, B., Smith, G., and Holland, R.: Resolving land use conflicts between renewable energy, nature protection and food production, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1993, 2022.

As solar photovoltaic make a greater contribution to the energy mix, there will be increasing land use change for solar parks. Land use change can affect biodiversity across spatial scales and opportunities to incorporate biodiversity benefits into the energy transition are increasingly being recognised. For example, solar parks could support insect pollinators through providing critical resources such as flowering plants. However, understanding of pollinator response to solar park developments is currently limited and empirical data are lacking. To address this knowledge gap, we surveyed bumble bees, butterflies and flowering plants between July and September across 15 solar parks in the UK. We also investigated the composition and connectivity of the landscapes surrounding each solar park using landcover data and a GIS, allowing us to explore the impacts of on-site floral resources and surrounding landscape characteristics on bumble bee and butterfly abundance and diversity. We found that bumble bee and butterfly biodiversity varied across solar parks, but overall butterflies were more than five times more abundant than bumble bees. Pollinator biodiversity was impacted by both on-site resources and landscape characteristics. However, characteristics of the floral resources on site appeared to be the most important factors, with increases in floral diversity, floral cover and vegetation height associated with increases in pollinator abundance and diversity. Our findings suggest that local and landscape scale factors affect pollinator biodiversity on solar parks, but solar parks that provide diverse and abundant flowering plants may be best placed to support pollinators. Incorporating this knowledge into existing and future solar park developments could promote benefits to insect pollinators alongside the energy transition.

How to cite: Blaydes, H., Potts, S., Whyatt, D., and Armstrong, A.: On-site floral resources and surrounding landscape characteristics impact pollinator biodiversity on solar parks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2180, 2022.

There is currently a total of 750 large scale solar parks (>5MW) in the UK, with an installed capacity of approximately 7.3GW; this is likely to cover an area of land of around 14,500 ha. While the planning process for such developments is currently geared towards increasing biodiversity gain, there remains a large discrepancy between the way that solar farms are managed and the actual ecological enhancement achieved. With large scale solar parks being a critical part of meeting the targets within the Paris Agreement, it becomes increasingly important to understand how the construction of solar parks impacts local wildlife, where biodiversity net gain can be achieved and the obstacles in the way of maximising this biodiversity net gain.

This talk offers a perspective from a practitioner’s point of view; Clarkson & Woods have carried out ecological monitoring of over 100 operational solar farms since 2016, and have collated an extensive database of botanical data from operational solar arrays. We will present this botanical data based on over 2,000 recorded botanical quadrats and look at how various factors affect botanical diversity including land management approach, age of array and location of quadrat. A discussion of some of the obstacles and potential solutions to maximising biodiversity net gain will be presented based on our knowledge of solar farms in the UK.

How to cite: Montag, H. and Clarkson, T.: Long Term Ecological Monitoring of Large Scale Solar Parks in the UK, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4958, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4958, 2022.

Floating solar photovoltaics (FPV) are deployed on aquatic systems worldwide as an alternative to ground- and roof-mounted installations. FPV installations represent a considerable water surface transformation, and the consequent threats and opportunities for hosting aquatic systems are poorly understood. Moreover, we must consider any impacts within the context of a changing climate, given FPV operational lifetimes.

Impacts on aquatic systems may be significant given that FPV can perturb two key drivers of water body function - wind shear stress and solar radiation intensity. The potential impacts of changes on water body function are wide-ranging. For example, FPV may beneficially reduce the occurrence of nuisance algal blooms or could detrimentally lead to anoxic conditions, leading to the release of heavy metals from bed sediments. However, impacts are likely to be highly water body-specific, dependent on deployment configuration and be contingent on future climate conditions.

To better understand FPV effects on aquatic ecosystem processes, which underpin ecosystem services, we extended an existing lake model to simulate FPV installations under future climate scenarios on a UK reservoir. We examined plausible changes to a range of meteorological variables, water temperatures, reservoir inflow and depth. We found that FPV alters key water quality properties, including water temperature and phytoplankton community composition. Depending on the conditions, the implications are positive or negative. Our analysis shows that FPV can partially mitigate the impacts of climate change by reducing water temperature. The extended lake model will help inform policymakers and practitioners on best practices for deploying FPV, minimising detrimental impacts and maximising co-benefits.

How to cite: Exley, G., Page, T., Folkard, A. M., Thackeray, S. J., Hernandez, R. R., and Armstrong, A.: Floating solar interactions with water bodies under climate warming, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6272, 2022.

Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG) is defined in the UK as ‘development that leaves biodiversity in a better state than before’ and involves an approach where land developers work with local governments, wildlife groups, landowners and other stakeholders in order to support local priorities for nature conservation. The Environment Act 2021 will set out a minimum 10% biodiversity net gain to be mandatory for most land developments and the gain will need to be calculated using the Natural England Biodiversity Metric. The terrestrial habitats listed within the Biodiversity Metric are based on the UK Habitat Classification system (UK Hab).

Solar park developments usually achieve high gains in biodiversity as they commonly lead to intensive arable land or improved grassland being restored to permanent grassland; further enhancements may include sowing of wildflower seed and application of conservation grazing/cutting. However, debate remains regarding classification of proposed habitat within solar parks, in particular, the shaded habitat beneath the panels. We argue that rather than this area being regarded as “lost” habitat, our data show that a variety of plant species can thrive. However, this varies from site to site and is dependent on the vegetation management regime implemented within the site. Site management varies from conservation grazed to intensively grazed, to completely unmanaged, to cut throughout every month to once every three years or with occasional shade / access strips. This extends to treatment of injurious weeds with some non-chemical treatments to other sites which are blanket sprayed with a glyphosate herbicide.

A data set of 30 operational solar parks which were monitored in 2020 were selected and a total of 523 botanical quadrats analysed in order to characterise the vegetation within solar parks (including beneath the panels) in terms of species composition and other UK Habitat Classification criteria such as habitat condition.

These results will be used to provide formal guidance for calculating BNG on solar farms for the solar industry and planning authorities. The proposed approach is being developed with input from Natural England, UK Hab and Solar Energy UK.

How to cite: Remazeilles, A., Montag, H., Carvalho, F., Parker, G., and Howell, B.: Applying Biodiversity Net Gain to solar parks in the UK, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7770, 2022.

The increasing demand of emission-free energy enhances the footprint of wind power on landscapes worldwide. Wind power establishments claim considerable areas given their establishment sites and connected infrastructure. Being a major (but late arriving) land-use actor, onshore wind power expands in a landscape context already shaped by other land uses, thereby becoming directly a competitor for area. Being at forefront within the European Union, Sweden in northern Europe has ratified ambitious environmental goals to meet net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2045. This asks for substantial expansion in renewable energy sources nationwide, particularly of wind power. In practice, suggested future wind power establishments claim about 3.5% of the total national land surface in Sweden but higher shares in forest-dominated regions. Within the Swedish environmental strategy, forests, however, are key players to provide also other products and services to mitigate impacts of climate change as well as to preserve biodiversity. Notably, a land demand of about 3.5% by wind power is comparable to the share of all formally protected Swedish forestlands below the mountain forest border, which currently is heavily debated due to the experienced loss of forestland for wood biomass production. This makes wind power establishment in forest landscape a serious competitor for space and for meeting different forest goals.

Using Sweden as a case, we quantify the amount of forests in relation to their productivity, landownership (state, company or private) and nature conservation value that we expect to convert into wind power land following the recent national strategy for wind power expansion based on current wind power distribution in Sweden. Our preliminary results suggest a considerable conversion of productive forestland into wind power land, particularly in the southern boreal landscape. Preliminary findings also indicate landowner differ to which degree their productive forestland without conservational value likely become wind power land.  

Our results emphasized the need for regional context-specific landscape planning in order to allow for both forests development and utilization meeting different environmental goals, including wind power and other interests.

How to cite: Neumann, W., Bjärstig, T., Thellbro, C., and Svensson, J.: Footprint of large scale expansion of wind power in productive boreal forests – forests under a zero-emission strategy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8685, 2022.

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) based on purpose-grown lignocellulosic crops can provide negative CO₂ emissions to mitigate climate change, but its land requirements present a threat to biodiversity. Here, we analyse the implications of crop-based BECCS for global terrestrial vertebrate species richness, considering both the land-use change (LUC) required for BECCS and the climate change prevented by BECCS. LUC impacts are determined using global-equivalent, species-area relationship-based loss factors. We find that sequestering 0.5–5 Gtonne of CO₂ per year with lignocellulosic crop-based BECCS would require hundreds of Mha of land, and commit tens of terrestrial vertebrate species to extinction. Species loss per unit of negative emissions decreases with: i) longer lifetimes of BECCS systems, ii) less overall deployment of crop-based BECCS, and iii) optimal land allocation, i.e., prioritising locations with lowest species loss per negative emission potential, rather than minimising overall land use or prioritising locations with lowest biodiversity. The consequences of prevented climate change for biodiversity are based on existing climate response relationships. Our tentative comparison shows that for crop-based BECCS considered over 30 years, LUC impacts on vertebrate species richness may outweigh the positive effects of prevented climate change. Conversely, for BECCS considered over 80 years, the positive effects of climate change mitigation on biodiversity may outweigh the negative effects of LUC. However, both effects and their interaction are highly uncertain and require further understanding, along with analysis of additional species groups and biodiversity metrics. We conclude that factoring in biodiversity means lignocellulosic crop-based BECCS should be used early to achieve the required mitigation over longer time periods, on optimal biomass cultivation locations, and most importantly, as little as possible where conversion of natural land is involved, looking instead to sustainably grown or residual biomass-based feedstocks and alternative strategies for carbon dioxide removal.

How to cite: Hanssen, S., Steinmann, Z., Daioglou, V., Cengic, M., van Vuuren, D., and Huijbregts, M.: Global implications of lignocellulosic crop-based BECCS for terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8855, 2022.

Brazil is the global frontrunner in the production of sugarcane ethanol. Strong national biofuels policies, a consolidated internal demand for ethanol for transportation purposes, and a global growing demand for sugar and ethanol have supported this development. The sugarcane ethanol industry has contributed to economic growth, technological progress, job creation and is among the key strategies for mitigating CO₂ emissions in Brazil. However, the industry is also responsible for a wide range of undesirable impacts on land. Biodiversity loss, structural soil degradation, pollution, and depletion of water sources can result from the associated direct and indirect land-use change. We therefore assess the potential of a carbon capture and utilization pathway to increase the fuel production of this industry in a land-neutral way. 

The pathway combines the almost clear surplus CO₂-stream from the ethanol fermentation process with H₂ produced using wind and solar power to synthesize methanol. The change of use of land from sugarcane production to renewable electricity generation is an intensification step which allows to spare significant amounts of land.

To understand the implications of this pathway in terms of land-use and cost, we develop a spatio-temporal model to determine the cost-optimal system configuration, the resulting land effciency, and consequently the land sparing potential. The core of the model consists of a techno-economic optimization model that minimizes cost for a system that includes variable renewable electricity generation (wind and solar power), storage (electricity, CO₂ and H₂), electrolyzers and methanol synthesis installations for each one of the sugarcane ethanol production plants in the country. The optimization model relies crucially on two time-series which we derived specifically for each Brazilian ethanol plant based on a consolidated spatially explicit data set of sugarcane ethanol installations: first, individual time series of the CO₂-streams from ethanol fermentation, and second multi-year time series of wind and solar power in hourly temporal resolution using ERA5 and ERA5-land reanalysis data. Furthermore, we extensively review costs of individual system components and derive footprints of Brazilian solar and wind power plants from satellite imagery.

The proposed pathway leads to a combined amount of ethanol and methanol that represents an increase of  43%-49% compared to the current output of the ethanol industry in energetic terms. This amounts to around 100 TWh of methanol that would be sufficient to cover the projected growth in Brazil biofuel demand until 2030. In contrast, if the same amount of energy would be provided by sugarcane ethanol, produced at the current average Brazilian sugarcane-to-ethanol land-use efficiency, an additional 23,000 km² - 27,000 km² of land would be required. This underlines the significant land sparing potential of the proposed pathway. 

How to cite: Ramirez Camargo, L., Castro, G., Gruber, K., Klingler, M., Turkovska, O., Wetterlund, E., and Schmidt, J.: Significant land-sparing potentials from implementing carbon capture and utilization for the Brazilian sugarcane ethanol industry, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10036, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10036, 2022.

Geotourism is a relatively new sector in tourism, in which visitors are offered earth scientific knowledge when visiting spectacular locations (geosites or geotopes) and participating in various organized activities there. Areas and sites with high geological-geomorphological relevance are usually managed by national parks, geoparks or other types of nature reserves. For this reason, research into the assessment of these sites serves not only the purposes of geoscience but also those of these organisations and, through them, tourism.

The aim of our research was to carry out a quantitative geotourism assessment in the NW part of the Gerecse Mts, Hungary, on an area of 180 km². As this type of assessment determining geotourism potential has not been made here before, the Gerecse Mountains are still undiscovered in terms of quantitative geotourism values. However, this area has great geodiversity due to its earth scientific richness (its various and spectacular geosites are mainly from the Mesozoic, but Eocene, Miocene and Quaternary sediments are also present). It has strong connections to culture and human activities: it is an important source of building stones since Roman times.

We used analogue geological and topographic maps, publications, and databases to identify potential geosites. The selected sites were ranked based on their types (e.g., cliff, quarry, break of slope) and distance from trails. They were visited on site – omitting the least important ones based on the preliminary categorization. Following the fieldwork, the potential geosites were evaluated based on quantitative assessment models that have been used in Hungary several times. We applied the Geosite Assessment Model (GAM, Vujičić et al., 2011) and the Modified Geosite Assessment Model (M-GAM, Tomič & Božić, 2014). Among objective aspects, the latter involves tourists (from other studies) into the evaluation process, thus giving a more realistic image of the geotourism potential of the given geosite. The final score of an object is built up by scientific, infrastructural and this visitor-based values. In the end of the work, each geosite got an analysis on its improvable characteristics, and a group of them were selected as suitable for later geotourism activities and development.

The results (more than 100 evaluated geotopes) contribute to the geosite cadastral of the Gerecse Mts – providing useful data for the management body – the Duna-Ipoly National Park Diretorate. Suitable protection and tourism activity measures of local earth science values can be planned using our results – these two factors are the base of a good balance between nature and society.

EH is supported by the ÚNKP-21-2 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry for Innovation and Technology from the source of the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund.

Tomić, N., & Božić, S. (2014). A modified Geosite Assessment Model (M-GAM) and its Application on the Lazar Canyon area (Serbia). International Journal of Environmental Research, 8(4), 1041-1052.

Vujičić, M., Vasiljević, D., Marković, S., Hose, T., Lukić, T., Hadžić, O., & Janićević, S. (2011). Preliminary geosite assessment model (GAM) and its application on Fruška Gora Mountain, potential geotourism destination of Serbia. Acta Geographica Slovenica, 51(2), 361-377.

How to cite: Hajdú, E., Albert, G., and Pál, M.: Geotourism assessment of the northwestern part of the Gerecse Mountains, Hungary, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-343, 2022.

Accurate mapping of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is critical for carbon budget accounting, sustainable forest management as well as for understanding the role of forest ecosystem in the climate change mitigation.

In this study, spaceborne Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) LiDAR data were used in combination with Sentinel-1 synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) and Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery as well as elevation data to produce a wall-to-wall AGB map of Australia that is more accurate and with higher spatial and temporal resolution than what is possible with any one data source alone. Specifically, the AGB density map was produced that covers the whole extent of Australia at 200m spatial resolution for the Austral winter (June-August) of 2020. To produce this map Copernicus Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 composites and ALOS World 3D Digital Surface Model (DSM) were trained with samples from the GEDI Level 4A product.

From GEDI Level 4A data available within Australia between June – August 2020, all measurements not meeting the requirements of L4A product quality, and those with degraded state of pointing or positioning information and an estimated relative standard error in GEDI-derived AGB exceeding 50% were rejected. Mean Sentinel-1 composite was generated using thermal noise corrected, radiometrically calibrated and terrain corrected VV- and VH-polarization backscatter imagery. Similarly, median Sentinel-2 composite was generated using cloud and cloud-shadow free Level-2A imagery, and was further used to calculate Normalized Difference Spectral Indices (NDSIs) from all spectral bands. Finally, aspect and slope were calculated from the DSM.

The boosting tree machine learning model was applied to predict wall-to-wall AGB density map. For each 200m × 200m cell the number of available GEDI measurements was calculated and models were built based on average AGB density of cells containing > 5 GEDI measurements.

Up to ≈62000 cells, each 200m × 200m, were used to train predictive machine learning models of AGB density. The predictive performance of models based on Sentinel-2 imagery only (single-data source) and a fusion of Sentinel-2 with Sentinel-1 imagery and elevation data (multi-data source) was compared. Bayesian hyperparameter optimization was used to identify the most accurate Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model using 5-fold cross-validation. 

The single-data source analysis based on Sentinel-2 imagery resulted in AGB density predicted with the coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.74-0.81, root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 40-44 Mg/ha and root-mean-square percentage error (RMSPE) of 45-55%.Model performance improved only marginally with the addition of Sentinel-1 and DSM information: AGB density prediction with R2 of 0.75-0.82, RMSE of 36-41 Mg/ha and RMSPE of 44-48%. Using a SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) approach to explain the output of LightGBM models it was found that Sentinel-2 derived NDSIs using Red Edge and Short-wave Infrared bands were the most important in predicting seasonal AGB density. 

Similar model performance is expected for annual prediction of AGB density at a finer resolution (e.g. 100m) due to higher density of GEDI measurements. This research highlights methodological opportunities for combining GEDI measurements with satellite imagery and other environmental data toward seasonal AGB mapping at the regional scale through data fusion.

How to cite: Shendryk, Y.: Fusing GEDI, Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and elevation data for seasonal forest biomass mapping across Australia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2077, 2022.

Long term flux measurements are needed to improve our understanding of the carbon balance of arable lands. The objective of our study was to determine the seasonal dynamics of carbon cycling in a Hungarian cropland and to examine the effect of crop rotation on net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ (NEE), furthermore to assess the influences of C outputs and inputs derived from lateral fluxes on soil organic carbon (SOC) stock. In this study we update the results presented in our poster of last year’s conference (EGU21-10977).

The experiment began in 2017 and crop rotation of the measured field consisted of winter wheat (2017-2018 and 2019-2020), rapeseed (2018), sorghum (2019) and sunflower (2021). CO₂ fluxes and annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO₂ were measured by a field-scale eddy covariance (EC) station at a Central Hungarian cropland site. Both vertical and lateral C fluxes were taken into account when calculating the net ecosystem carbon budget (NECB).

As presented in our previous study the largest sink activity was observed in the sorghum season (-277 g C m^-2 from sowing to harvest). The cropland acted as a source of CO₂ during the rapeseed season (140 g C m^-2) due to incomplete germination caused by extreme autumnal drought.

We found that during the study period both meteorological variables and lateral carbon fluxes such as C inputs derived from seed and crop residues and outputs (harvest) had significant influence on the C dynamics. The higher temperatures and precipitation amount that characterised the fall of 2019 caused large differences in NEE dynamics for winter wheat when compared to 2017. The impact of climatic factors could be seen in the sunflower period since lack of precipitation in 2021 led to remarkably low carbon uptake.

Fallow periods in total covered a relatively long period of time (approximately 1 year out of the 4 year long study period). These fallow periods had a significant effect on NECB values due to immense C loss. During the four years of our experiment cumulative NEE was -222 g C m^-2 and NECB was 726 g C m^-2 as carbon loss during fallow periods (437 g C m^-2 in total) and carbon export through harvest (964 g C m^-2 in total) counterbalanced the crop’s CO₂ uptake.

We can conclude that while this Hungarian cropland was a sink of carbon it could not maintain the soil organic carbon content as it was not able to sequester enough carbon to do so. Cover plants and crop residue retention could be a solution to reduce the risk of soil carbon stock depletion but further studies are needed in the field of soil management practices.

How to cite: De Luca, G., Pintér, K., Fóti, S., Nagy, Z., and Balogh, J.: Update on soil carbon balance in Hungarian crop rotation systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2484, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2484, 2022.

Jeju island’s unique and diverse species of flora and fauna and well-preserved natural environment earned Jeju the designation as a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve in December 2002(World Heritage Office & Jeju Special Self-Governing Province, 2016). To achieve no net loss and preferably a net gain of this outstanding biodiversity, ‘biodiversity offsets’ can be implemented(BBOP, 2009). Until now, there have been attempts in Korea to introduce the concept of offset, such as the establishment of the ‘Total Natural Resource Conservation’(Lee et al., 2020), but studies on the specific criteria or method of biodiversity offset area are insufficient. It is desirable not to prepare offset area whenever damage occurs, but to select them in consideration of ecological connectivity, environmental functional aspects, and socio-cultural continuity in the planning process(Lee et al., 2020). Therefore, we intend to select the offset area of Jeju Island using the methodology of Pilgrim et al (2012), which derives the relative offsetability in consideration of the biodiversity conservation concern, residual impact magnitude, theoretical offset opportunity, practical offset feasibility. Potential offset area derived from previous studies has already reflected the concept of biodiversity conservation concern, including vulnerability and irreplaceability. Through the Environmental Impact Assessment(EIA) of Jeju Island, the type of development that had a significant impact on biodiversity is selected as an example, and the impact magnitude of the development type is identified. In addition, offset opportunity is derived by considering functional area and natural distribution, and offset feasibility is derived by factors such as developer capacity and financing. Finally, the relative offsetability is evaluated and the offsetability map is established. The characteristics of offset areas are analyzed using the established offsetability map. For instance, the size and patterns of sites with high offsetability can be studied. As a result, the offsetability map is established by evaluating the relative offsetability of potential offset areas. Therefore, it is possible to specifically find where the biodiversity offset is available in Jeju Island, and to identify the offset priority through comparison of the relative offsetability between the selected offset sites. By analyzing the characteristics of the offset area, it is possible to identify what characteristics increase the offsetability, how large it should be to have high offsetability, and what patterns exist between the selected offset areas. This study shows the specific offset area selection process, and through this, it will help to create a roadmap for selecting a site for a biodiversity offset where the biodiversity offset concept was not introduced into the policy. This work was supported by the Korea Environment Industry and Technology Institute (KEITI) through the Decision Support System Development Project for Environmental Impact Assessment, funded by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) (No. 2020002990009). This work was Supported by a Korea University Grant.

How to cite: Jeong, D., Lee, S., Shin, Y., and Jeon, S.: A Study on the Selection of Biodiversity Offset Area in Korea - Focusing on Jeju Island, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3398, 2022.

Jeju Island, the research area, has been registered as a UNESCO World Natural Heritage Site and has high biodiversity and ecological value, such as designation as a global geopark and biosphere reserve. It also has a beautiful landscape, so it is not only necessary for conservation but also highly demanded as a landscape resource (Kim et al., 2015; Ko, 2011). Accordingly, it is necessary to prioritize the conservation area that can reconcile the conflict between indiscriminate development and nature protection, as well as to establish potential offset sites for ‘No Net Loss’ in order to respond to development impacts. Selecting conservation areas based on biodiversity value can be an effective offset decision-making tool on where and how to prioritize conservation policies (Li et al., 2021; SANBI & UNEP-WCMC, 2016). There have been many studies on biodiversity conservation between excellent ecological value and development pressure in Jeju Island, but there are almost no studies on the implementation conditions of the offset or offset sites. We here aim to map a conservation area map in consideration of the environmental characteristics of Jeju Island and to select a potential offset area that can practically work offset. We will use ‘Zonation’ program, which is a systematic conservation planning-based model. Zonation is a useful land planning tool that can minimize development impact and realize biodiversity offset (Wintle, 2008; Lethomaki & Moilanen, 2013). The biodiversity attributes inputs required for running Zonation are potential habitat data using MaxEnt and environmental variable data. As a result, we will identify the spatial range and location of the potential biodiversity offset area through Zonation Priority Rank Map output. In addition, we can also analyze their spatial and environmental characteristics, and group out the shape of potential offset site composition (size or pattern). This study can be utilized as a basis for feasible offset policy by proposing potential offset areas through selecting conservation areas in Jeju Island. This work was conducted with the support of the Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through its Urban Ecological Health Promotion Technology Development Project, and funded by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) (2020002770003).

How to cite: Shin, Y. J., Lee, S., Jeong, D., and Jeon, S.: Mapping the Biodiversity Conservation Value for Potential Offset Area, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3421, 2022.

*Corresponding author: Xiaolu Tang (lxtt2010@163.com)

Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key parameter to characterize terrestrial ecological processes. NPP reflects the carbon sequestration capacity of vegetation to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide, and plays an important role in mitigating atmospheric carbon dioxide content. Currently, the majority of studies focused on the model efficiency total NPP at the global scale. However, whether the model resolution of NPP affects the NPP amount at the global is still uncertainty. To fill this knowledge gap, we first collected 3307 NPP field observations from published literatures, and then model NPP using climate, soil, and vegetation variables using Random Forest (RF) to predicted global NPP at the spatial resolutions of 0.05°, 0.25° and 0.5°. Results showed that RF could well capture the spatial and temporal variability of NPP with the model efficiencies (R²) of 0.55, 0.52 and 0.53 for at the resolution of 0.05°, 0.25° and 0.5°, respectively. Similar spatial patterns were also found for NPP at different spatial resolutions and NPP decreased with increased latitude where the highest NPP was found in the tropical regions and the lowest NPP were distributed in high latitude areas, e.g. alpine tundra. However, a great difference was found for the magnitude of NPP resulting a great difference in total global NPP of 71.5, 78.6, 87.7 Pg C year^-1 from 1981 to 2016 for the resolutions of 0.05°, 0.25° and 0.5°, respectively. These findings suggested the challenges to improve modelling accuracies of the global carbon fluxes used appropriate resolutions.

Keywords: Net primary productivity; Different resolutions; Random Forest; Spatial pattern; Appropriate resolution;

Acknowledgment: the study was supported by the National Science Foundation of China (31800365).

How to cite: Zhou, T., Tang, X., Hou, Y., Luo, X., Yang, Z., Lai, Y., Yu, P., Luo, K., and Zhao, R.: Comparing the spatio-temporal differences of global NPP simulation data with different resolutions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3656, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3656, 2022.

The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are a powerful concept to drive action towards a more sustainable future. However, the SDGs are formulated in a qualitative and generic way whereas specific and quantitative definitions of targets are required to steer policy and practice.

The Indus river basin is a global hotspot for future climate change and socioeconomic development. The basin has the largest continuous irrigation scheme in the world, and hydropower is developing rapidly with a large hydropower potential still untapped. Therefore, water, food and energy are strongly interlinked in the basin’s water-food-energy nexus. The basin already faces insecurity of water, food and energy in the present situation, and with strong projected climate and socioeconomic change, achieving the SDGs for these three resources in the basin will be challenging.

Here we present a novel approach to translate the global SDGs for water, food and energy (SDGs 2, 6 and 7) to quantitative targets specified for the Indus river basin. Our approach is based on a resource accounting framework operating at sub-basin scale and monthly time step, combining models and geospatial data. The approach uses ensembles of downscaled projections for three climate change scenarios driving water availability and three sets of downscaled projections of socioeconomic drivers, including population and GDP, as main drivers for the demand for water, food and energy. The accounting framework considers dependencies between the three resources and represents scenario-specific exchange of resources between sub-basins in this transboundary river basin. The approach results in scenario-specific quantitative targets for water, food and energy to be realized to achieve the three related SDGs at the river basin scale.

How to cite: Lutz, A., Smolenaars, W., Dhaubanjar, S., Jamil, K., Biemans, H., Ludwig, F., and Immerzeel, W.: From SDGs to IDGs: Translating global Sustainable Development Goals for water, food and energy to river basin specific Indus Development Goals, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4378, 2022.

City-level CO2 emissions inventories are foundational for supporting the EU’s decarbonization goals. Inventories are essential for priority setting and for estimating impacts from the decarbonization transition. Here we present a new CO2 emissions inventory for all 116,572 municipal and local government units in Europe, containing 108,000 cities at the smallest scale used. The inventory spatially disaggregates the national reported emissions, using 9 spatialization methods to distribute the 167 line items detailed in the National Inventory Reports (NIRs) using the UNFCCC Common Reporting Framework (CRF). The novel contribution of this model is that results are provided per administrative jurisdiction at multiple administrative levels, following the region boundaries defined OpenStreetMap, using a new spatialization approach. Project website: openghgmap.net

How to cite: Moran, D., Pichler, P.-P., Zheng, H., Muri, H., Klenner, J., Kramel, D., Többen, J., Weisz, H., Wiedmann, T., Wykmans, A., Strømman, A. H., and Gurney, K. R.: openghgmap.net -  Estimating CO2 Emissions for 108,000 European Cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5400, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5400, 2022.

Land cover (LC) is an important indicator to reach several of the targets under the Global Goals. Accurate global LC time-series are thus vital to monitor sustainable development. Although the number and quality of open-access, remotely sensed LC products is increasing, all products have uncertainties due to widespread classification errors. However, the relative magnitude of uncertainties among exiting LC products is largely unknown, which hampers their confident selection and robust use for sustainable development evaluation and planning. To close this gap, we quantified region-, time-period-, and coarse-LC class-specific data uncertainties for the 10 most widely used global LC time-series. To this end, we developed a novel multi-scale validation framework that accounts for differences in mapping resolutions and scale mismatches between the spatial extent of map grid cells and validation samples. We aimed for a fair validation assessment by carefully evaluating the quality of our validation samples with respect to landscape heterogeneity that LC products often fail to classify accurately. To address the issue, we supported the validation assessment with Landsat-based measures of cross-scale spectra similarity. The metric was computed by taking advantage of the full Landsat archive in Google Earth Engine. We base our assessment on more than 1.8 million globally integrated LC validation sites, where we mobilized around 2.8 million samples during the period 1980-2020 composed by hundreds of sampling effort of varied nature, from field surveys to crowdsourcing campaigns. Here, we will present the results of the assessment, providing insights on global and regional patterns of LC uncertainties. We found that no single product is more accurate over the others in mapping all LC classes, regions and time-periods. We will provide recommendations on the selection of fit-for-purpose LC time-series, and discuss future strategies for addressing their uncertainties in sustainable development evaluation and planning.

How to cite: barrasso, C., remelgado, R., and meyer, C.: A global assessment of spatiotemporal uncertainties in Land Cover – a key indicator for monitoring sustainable development, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6287, 2022.

Abstract

Sweden aims to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2045. To do this, one strategy could be increasing the biomass contribution in energy sector as approximately 75% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are related to energy consumption. Therefore, it is beneficial to explore efficient ways to upgrade biomass materials into high value-added bioenergy. This study considers the potential of Miscanthus cultivation and its application as biofuel materials in Sweden in terms of carbon sequestration and contribution in climate impact mitigation. Miscanthus, as an energy crop with relatively low maintenance requirements and a high dry matter yield and energy content, can play a major role in the sustainable development of biofuels. Using Miscanthus for energy, results in avoiding fossil fuel combustion and the corresponding GHG emissions. The results of this assessment demonstrated that the Miscanthus cultivation contributes in soil organic carbon sequestration by over one tonne carbon ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ which results in mitigating a significant amount of soil CO₂ fluxes. Therefore, the adaption of Miscanthus biomass, would directly contribute in UN Goal 7, affordable and clean energy, and Goal 13, climate action due to a significant reduction in GHG emissions. The integration of Miscanthus plant into the landscape may stimulate the economy of rural areas in the country and offer more profit than afforestation and reforestation on abandoned and marginal croplands.

Keywords: Energy crops, Climate change, Bioenergy, Soil organic carbon, Ecosystem services

How to cite: Mohammadi, A.: Carbon sequestration potential of Miscanthus application as biofuel source in Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6413, 2022.

The topography of Sichuan Province is extremely complex, with a rich variety of vegetation, and its vegetation shows a clear horizontal and vertical distribution structure. The subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest is the zonal vegetation of Sichuan. In 1980, according to the field survey data, forestry scientists roughly divided the evergreen broad-leaved forest in Sichuan Province into Erlang Mountain, Daxiangling Mountain, Xiaoliang Mountain or Huangmaogeng. It was divided into a dry evergreen broad-leaved forest in the west and a moist evergreen broad-leaved forest in the east. However, there is no quantitative classification of wet and dry evergreen broad-leaved forests in Sichuan. The traditional forest vegetation survey mainly relies on manual field survey, which has a long period, high cost, and consumes a lot of manpower and material resources. Remote sensing technology, with its wide coverage, large amount of information and short update cycle, brings the possibility of rapid and accurate quantitative classification of wet and dry evergreen broad-leaved forests. In this paper, based on the field survey data of evergreen broad-leaved forests in Sichuan Province, we combined NASADEM_HGT elevation data and Landsat8 images to perform SCS+C topographic correction on remote sensing images of the whole region of Sichuan on the Google earth engine cloud computing platform, and also based on the differences in spectral, textural and temporal characteristics between dry and wet evergreen broad-leaved forests. The experimental results were compared with the field survey data and obtained excellent accuracy, and it provides a strong technical support for vegetation mapping and forestry resources investigation and monitoring, and also lays a certain foundation for the classification of complex mountain forest vegetation.

How to cite: zhang, S.: The division of dry and wet areas of evergreen broad-leaved forest in Sichuan Province, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7143, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7143, 2022.

Climate change has been recognised for decades, and environmental risks related to it are expected to become more common over time as the world's population continues to grow. This tendency is compounded by people congregating in areas such as coastal regions, which are becoming increasingly vulnerable due to climate change. It is demonstrated that overpopulated regions need robust early warning systems representing the region's complex systems to allow all stakeholders to receive the correct information and respond appropriately and quickly under extreme climate events to avoid losing lives and property. The concept of a 'digital twin' is proposed as an accurate virtual representation of the effect of climate events on a specific region, which can be used as a tool to achieve better resilience of cities against extreme events. A digital twin can be created by combining data from various IoT sensors and artificial intelligence with a city model to represent a digital replica of the actual world. This paper presents an up-to-date picture of the GIS-based digital twin technology developed in the last decade for the early warning of extreme climate events worldwide and their integration with the smart city management systems. The findings suggest that GIS-based digital twin technology for severe climate hazard early warning is an emerging method. Yet, it has gained prominence in recent years due to developments in technology, software development, and communication technologies. However, much more research on digital twins is necessary to create a more effective early warning system approach. This paper highlights a potential framework for the development, implementation, and application of GIS-Based digital twins in climate resilience management in coastal regions.

How to cite: Riaz, K., McAfee, M., Anton, I., and Gharbia, S.: Conceptualising the management of climate extreme events through the GIS-based digital twin system, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7343, 2022.

Monitoring carbon release and sequestration is now more important than ever. Not only to confirm that carbon sinks remain intact or vulnerable ecosystems do not further degrade, but also to keep track of our journey towards carbon neutrality, where increasing efforts to offset CO2 emissions have been initiated. Amongst a number of solutions, carbon trading schemes have been introduced, such as the EU Emission Trading System that is used in programs where local smallholder farmers benefit from transitioning towards agroforestry. Critical to the success of such programs is the use of accurate, scalable and transparent remote sensing technologies that objectively monitor the carbon that trees in a given plot of land have removed from the atmosphere.

At Satelligence, we exploit radar and optical satellite data worldwide and at scale to empower clients to combat deforestation and decrease carbon losses, as well as to protect biodiversity and prevent land degradation. In this contribution, we will present our approach to model Aboveground Biomass (AGB) over tropical moist forests at (sub) national scale based on data from several Earth Observation missions (GEDI, Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, Landsat) and machine learning models. In-situ data, where available, are integrated to improve models at local and regional scales. We will show preliminary results of modeled AGB and carbon sequestration over large areas as well as individual agricultural plots for selected countries in Africa and South America.

How to cite: Foresta, L., Alkema, S., Anders, N., Masselink, R., Schut, V., Takacs, S., and Vrielink, A.: Modeling Aboveground Biomass and carbon sequestration at local and national scale with in-situ and remote sensing data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9721, 2022.

The western Himalaya is one of the most climate-sensitive and ecologically vulnerable ecosystems of the world. In the recent past, the region has undergone rapid alterations owing to climate change and paced urbanization. These alterations have significantly impacted Terrestrial Net Primary Productivity (TNPP) of the region. The present study takes the emerging urbanizing centers: Pithoragarh (Uttarakhand) and Dharamsala (Himachal Pradesh), situated in Indian western Himalaya to estimate TNPP dynamics of various land use classes. The study demonstrates usage of Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (ESTARFM) for predicting a high spatio-temporal Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) imagery obtained by fusing spatial details of Landsat NDVI and temporal details of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI images. The predicted NDVI showed a good agreement with actual Landsat NDVI (R²=0.64 and 0.89; RMSE: 0.09 and 0.04; p < 0.01 for Dharamsala and Pithoragarh, respectively), therefore was reliable for TNPP estimations. This was assimilated in Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model for TNPP estimation for the years 2001 to 2019. The preliminary results show a net loss in TNPP in both of the urbanizing centers. During the study period 2001-2019, TNPP fluctuated annually and showed a decreasing trend of 1475.77 g C m^-2 year^-1 and 790.84 g C m^-2 year^-1 in Dharamsala and Pithoragarh, respectively. Among the forest vegetation classes, Oak the most dominant forest class experienced the highest decline in TNPP accounting for 67.55% and 34.04% of net TNPP loss in Dharamsala and Pithoragarh, respectively. The urban expansion contributed to 14.77% (Dharamsala) and 9.77% (Pithoragarh) decline of net TNPP loss. The results provide a better understanding of spatio-temporal dynamics of TNPP consequent to climatic variability and urbanization and provide a theoretical reference for future urban planning.

How to cite: Sharma, S., Joshi, P. K., and Fürst, C.: Terrestrial net primary productivity dynamics under climatic variability and urban expansion in western Himalaya, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11084, 2022.

Satellite remote sensing allows for large scale monitoring with low cost and high revisit time. However, in some applications, it does not provide all the information needed by the analyst for the full characterization of the problem due to, as an example, insufficient resolution or lack of specific measurements. This can lead to inaccuracies in classification and/or detection tasks. Nevertheless, satellite data can be used to guide subsequent discovery, recognition and characterization actions, defining potential areas of interest of limited extension that can be furtherly investigated with on-site strategies. This work presents an innovative framework showing how to use incomplete and inaccurate information extracted by satellite images in order to address on-ground discovery actions aimed to the mapping and the characterization of illegal micro-dumps in Campania Region (Italy). In particular, high-resolution images up to 50 cm resolution are exploited to detect potential micro-dumps by means of a statistical learning method based on spatial features. The detection map is then used to create a priority map based on environmental risk considerations, such as the extension of the area interested by the dump and its proximity to urban settlements, and previous risk mitigation actions. This information is ingested by a planning system in order to allocate and calculate patrolling routes based on the available manpower and vehicles for on-site surveying. The survey is implemented by means of drones equipped with payloads and software allowing for real-time three-dimensional reconstruction of the scene and volumetric estimations. This provides further data to assess the real dangerousness of the site giving to decision makers essential information to plan remediation actions. The system is demonstrated through a case study showing all the stages of the decision process.

How to cite: Amitrano, D., Angelino, C. V., Cicala, L., Gargiulo, F., Gigante, G., Nebula, F., Palumbo, R., Parrilli, S., Pascarella, D., Pigliasco, G., and Tufano, F.: A multiscale approach for discovery of illegal micro-dumps based on satellite detections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11923, 2022.

Energy has been identified as an enabler for several of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Globally, 759 million people (2019) still lack access to electricity. Energy planning is important to describe the pathway to achieve the nations goals, where energy systems models are important tools to explore scenarios and provide insight. Until recently, modelling energy access with low electrification rate was conducted either at low spatial (e.g. national) or temporal resolution (e.g. annual time slices).  The central grid is often modelled as a black box with approximate optimization methods. This is recognised as unsuitable for understanding integration of technological alternatives to a centralised grid, including distributed generation and mini-grids/renewables. However, methods to model national energy systems at very high spatial and temporal resolutions are data and computation intensive. At the same time increased transparency on the data and code behind these models and insight is important as energy infrastructure is both capital intensive and strategic for the nation.

In this paper we investigate the use of OSeMOSYS, an open-source energy systems model, and increase the spatial resolution while keeping a medium time resolution. OSeMOSYS is a linear programming model and conveniently finds the global optimum in contrast to approximate methods. The approach provides insights into the trade-offs across supply and demand. The model generation is available in an open-source repository where results can be reproduced.

For this paper we use Kenya as our case study where still 16 million people lack access to electricity (2019). We select the spatial resolution to 378 supply cells (40x40km square cells) which leads to 591 demand cells split between electrified and un-electrified. The modelled number of seasons are 12 and the day is split into 3 slices: day, evening, and night, leading to 36 time slices. Specific demand profiles for electrified and un-electrified are assessed in combination with location specific supply options (expansion from the grid, PV, wind, diesel gensets).

Our preliminary results show that the varying un-electrified demand profile, with a high evening peak and low night-time demand, hybrid solutions are preferred with more than one supply option to meet the demand. The expansion of the grid to cells located far away is not motivated due to the low expected consumption, therefore decentralized supply options are required to serve at a high service level.

The results highlight the need for further work to investigate the sensitivity of the spatial and temporal resolutions in combine in energy systems optimization models.

How to cite: Moksnes, N., Howells, M., and Usher, W.: Increasing spatial and temporal resolution in energy system optimization model for energy access – the case of Kenya, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12071, 2022.

Following the Paris Agreement (2015) that aims to limit climate warming, the Dutch government presented a National Climate Agreement in 2019. This agreement stated the overall ambition of reducing the national greenhouse gas emission by 49% in 2030 (compared to 1990) and allocates this reduction target to different sectors, such as industry, mobility, agriculture or land use. Within the latter sector, the peatland meadows are currently estimated to contribute ~4.6 to 7 Mton per year of CO₂ to the national Dutch greenhouse gas emission. In the National Climate Agreement, the aim is to reduce the net CO₂ emission from the peatland meadows with 1 Mton per year by 2030. 

To comply with the greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for peatlands, a set of measures that raise groundwater levels are currently being proposed and tested in pilots. The Dutch National Research Programme on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Peat Meadows (NOBV) investigates the effects of the proposed measures on the greenhouse gas emission balance under different environmental conditions. In the National Climate Agreement, it was decided that annual progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions needs to be monitored. The NOBV consortium is developing a registration system for this monitoring and presents it current status and ideas for future development in this contribution.

The registration system SOMERS (Subsurface Organic Matter Emission Registration System) is based on a multi-model ensemble approach. Using numerical models that simulate groundwater and carbon dynamics, the CO₂ emission as a result of peat decomposition is calculated. Within SOMERS, existing models are supplemented by two newly developed models for assessing groundwater dynamics and peat decomposition, that require limited data input and have a short runtime. The new models simulate at parcel resolution and together are used to make a multi-model ensemble estimate of annual, national peatland greenhouse gas emissions since 2016 (the reference year). The new models are tested with annual carbon flux estimates. In the long run, we envisage to fully couple the modelling approach with the automated field measurements that are being collected in a new national measurement network.

In this contribution, SOMERS will be introduced, and the calibration and validation approach will be discussed. We present predictions, under idealized average weather conditions, to establish effects of proposed mitigation measures. This directly serves policy development in regional spatial plans for the Dutch peatland meadows. Lastly, a first national peatland CO₂ emission budget based on SOMERS is presented, which after some further development may support LULUCF-sector reporting in the Netherlands.

How to cite: Erkens, G., Melman, R., Jansen, S., Boonman, J., van der Velde, Y., Hefting, M., Keuskamp, J., van den Berg, M., van den Akker, J., Fritz, C., Bootsma, H., Aben, R., Hessel, R., Hutjes, R., van Asselen, S., Harpenslager, S. F., Kruijt, B., and consortium, N.: SOMERS: Monitoring greenhouse gas emission from the Dutch peatland meadows on parcel level, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12177, 2022.

Haiti faces extreme land degradation, making the country prone to natural hazards and poverty, both undeniably linked. The Haitian Red Cross partnered with the Netherlands Red Cross, 510, and Commonland to roll out a long-term landscape restoration program. Over two decades, this program aims to realize 30 ‘Green Pearls. These are areas where best practices on restoration are combined to retrieve healthy landscapes, making communities more resilient and empowering people economically. Landscape restoration happens in small areas through planting trees and bushes. To carefully identify reforestation zones with the highest possible potential success rate, GIS-based site suitability analysis is applied using several indicators: Elevation (Slope), Soil (Soil PH, Soil Texture, Soil Bulk Density), and Climate (Solar Radiation, Temperature, Rainfall). Data on these indicators was obtained from different, often satellite-based data sources. All resulting layers (maps) per indicator are by default processed as equally important. However, the analysis can be tailored to produce different outcomes depending on the reclassification and weights given by experts to specific indicators. For the La Vallée de Jacmel region in the Haiti case, weighting was applied with the help of local experts. The output is a raster map indicating the locations for planting trees divided into five classes (from most suitable to least suitable). Currently, social indicators such as land ownership are not yet included. Our site suitability method is set up as a model using only open data from global datasets and is, therefore, replicable to other areas. The default model has also been applied to a similar case in the Kayes region in Mali. However, local knowledge on the significance of specific indicators remains indispensable input for the reforestation model. Overall, the site suitability method has proven to be a very useful digital support for holistic land restoration.

How to cite: Oud, D., Savchuk, A., Quesseveur, S., Mounkaila Issaka, A. A., and van den Homberg, M.: Green pearls: digital support for reforestation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12962, 2022.

Excessive growth in the global human population and eventually urbanisation has become a serious threat to the environment. These situations arise especially in the rapidly developing nations, India being one of them. A higher population naturally poses a high pressure on the environment directly or indirectly, which is a threat for the sustainable development of the country. Most Indian cities face environmental sustainability challenges. Most cities in India are presently going through rapid urbanization and industrialization which leads to environmental degradation of the city. The objective of this study is to analyse the environmental quality of the selected developing cities and also compare the intensity to which they are affected by urbanisation. The study is performed using satellite-based remote sensing data. Initially, Landsat data is used for the years 2001 to 2021 and is utilized for studying the LULC (land use land cover) transformations. MODIS data products are used at 1 km resolution to extract the biophysical indicators (BI) such as normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST). MODIS data for PM2.5 is also utilised and finally, an index is calculated to represent the comprehensive environmental quality of the selected cities (CEQI). The yearly and decadal changes in the values of this index is mapped. The LULC transformations depicted a phenomenal decay in the greenness and an increase in the urban built-up area of the city. The CEQI variations and temporal trends reveal the significant deterioration of the overall environmental conditions in most of the cities. This is due to the change in gentrification patterns and also the change in urbanization and the greenness of the city. The study suggests that emission control strategies and urban greening can significantly contribute to enhancing urban environmental quality, especially in rapidly developing cities. The measures suggested to improve the environmental quality can help the policy-makers in the sustainable planning of the city.

How to cite: Singh, S. and Jain, K.: A comparative analysis of urban environmental quality of developing cities of India: A geospatial approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13558, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13558, 2022.

To achieve the ambitious but necessary climate targets set by the Paris Agreement, the IPCC model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels make apparent the need for safeguarding and enhancing the natural global carbon sink – including via carbon dioxide removal (CDR). A range of ocean-based CDR approaches, also termed “negative emissions technologies” (NETs), has been proposed to make use of the ocean’s potential to take up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it in water, biomass, and sediments. The governance framework in place to regulate CDR in the ocean, at this time, is limited to the direct and articulate regulation of ocean fertilization. Meanwhile, other NETs such as ocean alkalinity enhancement and artificial upwelling emerge, but a comprehensive and foresight-oriented regulation for the testing or even deploying at larger scale is missing. Specifically, there is large uncertainty on unintended (positive and negative) effects of these technologies on the condition of the ocean, in addition to enhanced carbon uptake and storage, and how these may impede on or support other global sustainability goals. The deployment of NETs in the ocean poses additional governance complexities relating to unknowns, uncertainties, and transboundary issues. In a study that is part of the EU H2020-project OceanNETs, we explore to what extent the current global governance framework directly or indirectly regulates emerging ocean-based NETs and reflect on the particularities and requirements for their comprehensive governance. The analysis considers the gaps, challenges, needs, and opportunities for comprehensive governance of ocean-based NETs. 

How to cite: Neumann, B. and Röschel, L.: Global governance of ocean-based negative emission technologies. Exploring gaps, challenges, and opportunities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-893, 2022.

Facing the dual threats of climate and socio-economic changes, how the social-ecological systems (SES) in the Tibet Autonomous Region can seize the opportunity of ecological restoration to enhance the quality of the environment while improving the relationship between human and nature is of great significance to promote the regional sustainable development. Thus, regarding human as the key component, we used Ostrom’s SES framework as an analytical fundation to analyze the impact of the implementation of ecological engineering on local human-policy-resource connection. We distributed questionnaires for local residents, distinguished experimental groups (EG, n=325) and control groups (CG,n =165), and used a network approach to construct indicators for assessing effectiveness of ecological engineering, including overall connectivity and evenness. Meanwhile, random forest regression was used to explore the background variables of the dominant connection and accordingly proposed subsequent directions for optimal governance. We found that interviewees in areas where ecological engineering was implemented had more positive perceptions of the importance of ecosystem services, the relationship between ecological conservation and well-being, attitudes toward ecological engineering, and the impact of measures. The overall connectivity and evenness of EG were significantly higher than that of CG. The implementation of ecological engineering enhanced the connection between local people and the environment, but caused some inconvenience to local residents’ livelihoods. Besides, elevation and annual precipitation were the background variables that dominated the overall connectivity. The overall connectivity was lower in alpine steppes with elevation of around 4000 m and semi-arid areas with annual precipitation around 400-500 mm. The implementation of ecological engineering played a positive role in alleviating human-nature relationship in tensions and promoting collective governance of common pool resources, but the governance process still involved risks. Safeguarding and improving the residents’ livelihoods and enhancing the regional weak SES coupling due to geographical constraints are the future directions for optimal governance.

How to cite: Wang, Y., Liu, Y., Wu, X., Wang, X., Yao, Y., and Fu, B.: The implementation of ecological engineering in Tibet has strengthened the local human-policy-resource connection, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1956, 2022.

Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) like Sludge Treatment Reed Beds (STRBs) can address resource recovery from sewage sludge in urban and rural areas to boost circular economy and to mitigate climate change. To ensure successful implementation of STRBs, an evaluation of stakeholders’ perceptions can be helpful to identify relevant barriers and opportunities. In this study, semi-structured interviews were conducted with relevant stakeholders, which were categorized in 5 interest groups including academics, state and governments, NGOs, water companies and local communities across Iceland. The interviews were then transcribed and effective elements influencing STRB technology in Iceland were identified through an open-coded method on the transcriptions. The elements were categorized as independent elements (NBS actors, on-going projects, feasibility, legal, economic, sociological, and natural criteria), which were grouped into 7 classifications impacting dependent elements (relevant aspects of STRB, STRB services and system cost). Through Causal Diagrams (CDs), the impact of the independent elements was visualized on the dependent elements. The result of the study is exposed in 8 causal networks and 4 aggregated CDs for sustainability, climate change, biodiversity and circular economy together with mediators interpreting the impacts. The complexity of multi-sequenced causalities of a heterogeneous nature is depicted in CDs implying by stakeholders’ reports and expectations. The study exposes information on the compatible aspects, where further research is required to facilitate the use of STRB for the resource recovery of sewage sludge in Iceland. Therefore, our findings can enable decision makers with intracommunity information to identify elements impacting STRB application, in which the influence of the multiple groups of interests is regarded. 

Keywords: Nature-Based Solutions; Sludge Treatment Reed Beds, Resource Recovery, Causal Diagram, climate change, circular economy, sustainability

How to cite: Gholipour, A., Duarte, E., Fragoso, R., Galvao, A., and Christian Finger, D.: Mapping NBS stakeholders’ perspective over Sludge Treatment Reed Bed (STRB) in Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1978, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1978, 2022.

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) has become part of the portfolio of solutions to mitigate climate change. In combination with emission reductions, CDR may be critical to achieving the goal of limiting global warming to below 2°C, as outlined in the Paris Agreement. Due to its potential high productivity and environmental co-benefits, macroalgae cultivation has recently become a prominent ocean-based CDR strategy. However, estimates of the CDR potential of large-scale deployment are highly limited. Here we simulate idealized global deployment of macroalgae-based CDR using the NEMO-PISCESv2 ocean biogeochemical model at high spatial resolution (0.25° nominal horizontal resolution). Macroalgae growth is confined to the upper 100m of the water column in Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) free of sea ice and with an appropriate nitrate/phosphate regime. Although the loss of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) through macroalgal growth enhances the flux of atmospheric carbon into the ocean, this increase in carbon uptake is less than the rate of macroalgal production. In the absence of any nutrient limitation on growth, the enhancement in ocean carbon uptake is only 73-77% of the carbon lost from the water column due to macroalgal production. However, when macroalgae nutrient limitation/uptake is additionally accounted for, the increase in ocean carbon uptake accounts for only 41-42% of the potential carbon lost through macroalgae production. These inefficiencies are due to ocean transport replacing part of the DIC lost in the upper water column with DIC from depth, the influence of local nutrient concentrations on the vertical profile of macroalgal production, and feedbacks on the nutrient resources available for phytoplankton net primary production. CDR efficiency is shown to scale near-linearly between scenarios assuming 1% to 10% of the global EEZ area is cultivated for macroalgae. The efficiency of macroalgal CDR shows significant regional variability, with much of the enhancement in ocean carbon uptake (43%-46%) occurring outside EEZs, posing potential difficulties to national scale accounting.

How to cite: Berger, M., Bopp, L., Ho, D. T., and Kwiatkowski, L.: Assessing global macroalgal carbon dioxide removal potential using a high-resolution ocean biogeochemistry model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4699, 2022.

Urban areas are major contributors to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To address climate change, many cities have developed climate action plans (CAPs) as strategic roadmaps to reduce their emissions and strive for emission neutrality and climate resilience by 2050 or before. It has been more than a decade since the first of these plans were put in place, and it is now important to evaluate these plans and to access whether city-level climate ambitions will be realised or perhaps need adjustment to pursue for improvements in climate resilience over time

 This work aims to further our understanding of urban GHG emissions, by completing existing urban carbon emissions data with blue-green contributions to the urban carbon cycle. In a previous study, it was found that the inclusion of blue-green emissions in urban carbon accounting in Stockholm, Sweden had a significant impact on that region’s ability to reach net zero emissions in the coming decades (Page et al., 2021). In this study, we complete the urban emissions data for cities across the European Union (EU) in order to assess if, and for which types of cities, the inclusion of blue-green emissions in the GHG accounting is similarly relevant.

Furthermore, we will use data about the CAPs produced and implemented by these cities together with the completed GHG emissions in order to assess whether the actions and plans made by many European cities have actually had any impact on the emissions from these cities. The inclusion of blue-green emissions and sequestrations in this assessment is particularly important, as many of the strategies included in CAPs impact blue-green areas, such as the implementation of nature-based solutions (NBS).

Conclusions will be drawn about the role of green-blue areas in urban GHG emissions, the role which CAPs have played in reducing emissions in European cities, and how and where these could potentially be adapted to further reduce future GHG emissions in urban areas.

Keywords: Sustainable cities; Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Nature-based Solutions; Climate Action Plans

References:

Page J, Kåresdotter E, Destouni G, et al. (2021) A more complete accounting of greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration in urban landscapes. Anthropocene 34: 100296. DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2021.100296.

How to cite: Page, J., Pan, H., and Kalantari, Z.: Completing Urban GHG Emissions Data to Assess the Effectiveness of Climate Action Plans in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5175, 2022.

Without substantial decarbonization of the global economy, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels are projected to lead to severe impacts on ecosystems and human livelihoods. Integrated assessments of economy and climate therefore favour large-scale CO₂ removal to reach ambitious temperature-stabilization targets. However, most of the proposed approaches to artificially remove CO₂ from the atmosphere are in conflict with planetary boundaries due to land-use needs and they may come with unintended climatic side-effects. Long-term draw-down of CO₂ by photoelectrochemical (PEC) reduction is a recent and promising approach that potentially entails a very low water footprint and could offer a variety of carbon sink products for safe geological storage. For renewable hydrogen fuel production, PEC devices have already been demonstrated to deliver high solar-to-fuel efficiencies. If such devices are adjusted to deliver high solar-to-carbon efficiencies for carbon dioxide removal, they would require comparably little land for achieving annual sequestration rates that are compatible with limiting global warming to 2°C or below. Yet, no production-scale prototype exists and the climatic side-effects of such an "artificial photosynthesis'' approach for negative emissions are unknown. Here, we discuss our work towards investigating potential impacts of PEC CO₂ removal on the climate and the carbon cycle in simulations with the comprehensive Earth System Model MPI-ESM. We designed a scheme to represent hypothetical PEC devices as a land surface type which is influencing land-atmosphere energy and moisture fluxes. We parameterize the irradiation-driven carbon sequestration of the devices and interactively couple their deployment area and location to a negative emission target. We plan to compare the potential side-effects between scenarios of dense, localized deployment and spread-out, decentralized application. These scenarios represent different guiding objectives for deploying hypothetical PEC systems such as maximizing the insolation per module area, or mitigating the overall impacts on climate and on carbon stocks. For the different scenarios, we intend to investigate changes in the surface balances, which could impact atmospheric circulations patterns. We further plan to quantify the amount of land-stored carbon that is relocated due to land-use change, as this affects the amount of CO₂ that can effectively be withdrawn from the atmosphere. Finally, we relate theoretical expectations for area requirements and CO₂ withdrawal with results from the coupled simulations which could inform the technological development. While ambitious emission reductions remain the only appropriate measure for stabilizing anthropogenic warming, our work could advance the understanding of possible benefits and side-effects of hypothetical PEC CO₂ removal.

M. M. May & K. Rehfeld, ESD Ideas: Photoelectrochemical carbon removal as negative emission technology. Earth Syst. Dynam. 10, 1–7 (2019).

How to cite: Adam, M., Kleinen, T., May, M. M., Lörch, D., Samanta, A., and Rehfeld, K.: Investigating potential climatic side-effects of a large-scale deployment of photoelectrochemical devices for carbon dioxide removal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6126, 2022.

In the face of climate change, the government of Taiwan requires new mitigation policies and implementation strategies. As forest plantations are commonly accepted as great carbon sinks, developing reliable carbon systems linking forestry carbon sequestration into green carbon credits in the economic sector requires synergic integration to examine potential carbon sink capability of forest plantations under the ever-changing climate. In this regard, this study developed a process-based stand growth model based on the structure of the Physiological Principles for Predicting Growth (3-PG) for carbon sequestration estimations of Sugi plantations in the National Taiwan University (NTU) Experimental Forest. The model considered monthly solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to simulate dynamic biomass production, and then allocated the simulated biomass to root, stem, and foliage by allometric equations fitted to biomass data from the SugiHinoki Database. After that, the mortality of stand was determined by using a zero-inflated Poisson modelling on long-term growth data collected by the NTU Experimental Forest during 1921-2019. In addition, we performed a scenario analysis to forecast future stand growth under 4 climate scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. Results revealed higher annual biomass increment (around 4 t ha^-1y^-1) in the end of the century in RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, and lower increment (around 2.5 t ha^-1y^-1) in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. A step-wise multiple linear regression analysis on the simulated growth data and climatic inputs revealed stronger positive impact of CO₂ concentration than precipitation on unit biomass primary production (NPP/Biomass). Temperature had comparable counter impact against precipitation, and solar radiation showed the least negative influence on unit biomass primary production. Based on this process-based stand growth model, we are able to dig into the relation between climatic variables and carbon sequestration rate, and help sketch prospect of plantations in the carbon market for plantation managers, investors, and policy makers.

How to cite: Li, H.-E. and Cheng, S.-T.: Forecasting impacts of climate change on plantation carbon sink capability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7019, 2022.

Globally, urban areas will face multiple water-related challenges in the near future. The main challenges are intensified droughts leading to water scarcity, increased flood risk due to extreme rainfall intensification, increased total water demand due to an increasing urban population, amplified urban heat island intensities due to urban sprawl, and reduction in urban carbon sink due to plant water stress. Urban greening is an excellent option for mitigating flood risk and excess urban heat. Meanwhile, rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems can cope with water supply needs and urban water management. In this study, we investigated how urban greening and RWH can work together to mitigate the aforementioned risks. We evaluate the joined-up management approach under climate projections for 30 cities in the USA spanning a variety of climates, population densities and urban landscapes. By incorporating a new RWH module in the urban ecohydrological model UT&C and flexible operational rules of reusing harvested water for domestic use and urban green space irrigation, we tested 4 intervention approaches: control, RWH installation, urban greening supported by RWH, and urban greening supported by traditional irrigation (i.e., supplying via mains water). Each intervention approach was evaluated using our adapted version of UT&C and forced by the last generation convection-permitting model simulations of current (2001-2011) and end-of-century (RCP8.5) climate from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The volume of RWH is assumed to be 2000L per household for all cities. Results showed that neither urban greening nor RWH could contribute significantly to reducing the expected increase in canyon temperature, because of the strong change in background climate (i.e., increases in average atmospheric temperature). However, RWH alone can sufficiently reduce the intensifying surface flood risk and effectively enhance water conservation, and urban greening can significantly increase the carbon sink of cities especially in dry regions, and if supported by traditional irrigation. Those results vary with the background climate: the benefits of urban greening, either supported by RWH or traditional irrigation, on canyon temperature reduction and carbon sink improvement increased with average air temperature and decreased with wetness index respectively; the benefits of RWH on runoff reduction and water conservation are both positively dependent on local annual precipitation.

How to cite: Zhang, Z., Paschalis, A., Mijic, A., Dobson, B., and Butler, A.: Assessing co-benefits of urban greening coupled with rainwater harvesting management under current and future climates across USA cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7324, 2022.

Multiple disaster risks are interconnected and are commonly caused by ecosystem degradation. Ecosystem degradation also drives many of the world's major problems, including biodiversity loss, climate change, and poverty. Ecosystem-based solutions such as ecosystem-based adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and community forestry are increasingly implemented in various contexts. However, little is known about possible interlinkages, synergies, and trade-offs among those ecosystem-based responses and potential barriers to their integration. This study explores spatial and conceptual synergies and trade-offs among ecosystem-based adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and community forestry and the barriers to implementing integrated actions.

The study was located in Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar. The research first used a comprehensive socio-ecological risk assessment framework and multi-risk impact chains to understand high-risk areas and identify potential areas for ecosystem-based adaptation. Potential areas for biodiversity conservation and community forestry respectively were then identified using criteria developed based on a literature review. At this point, spatial autocorrelations were tested, and a modified t-test was used to identify spatial relationships among them. Finally, qualitative expert interviews were conducted, and content analysis was used to understand conceptual synergies, trade-offs, and potential barriers for integrated action.

Results show potential for both social and ecological synergies. Ecosystem-based adaptation and biodiversity conservation show synergies with community forestry in the areas of local governance, and the relevance of social factors such as multi-stakeholder awareness, indigenous knowledge, land tenure security, community rule-making and ownership, and biodiversity-friendly livelihoods. Synergies between ecosystem-based adaptation and biodiversity conservation are mostly related to ecological factors such as benefits for biodiversity, ecosystem health, and corridor and buffer functions. Moreover, significant spatial synergies were observed between community forestry and biodiversity conservation areas.

Despite synergies, trade-offs exist and are mainly linked to social inequalities and the use of biodiversity-damaging practices. Spatial trade-offs occur between ecosystem-based adaptation and community forestry due to a lack of land tenure security in high-risk townships. Conceptual trade-offs between ecosystem-based adaptation and community forestry are mainly linked to inequality, lack of access, local power relations, and land tenure insecurity. Trade-offs between biodiversity and the other two are observed due to the use of monocultures, exotic species, and clear-cutting practices. Legal, social, and financial barriers have been identified for the implementation of synergetic actions, while proper facilitation, community rule-making, and biodiversity-friendly livelihoods are key enabling factors in achieving sustainable ecosystem restoration.

This research argues that ecosystem-based adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and community forestry benefit each other, highlighting that fostering those synergies is key for ecosystem restoration and conservation in the face of climate change, biodiversity loss, and poverty. Furthermore, the research stresses the need to consider community governance and biodiversity aspects in ecosystem-based adaptation to address societal challenges.

How to cite: Wuit Yee Kyaw, H. and Sebesvari, Z.: Assessment of synergies and trade-offs among ecosystem-based adaptation, biodiversity conservation and community forestry in Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7415, 2022.

There are many uncertainties surrounding solar radiation management (SRM), which cannot all be quantified and reduced using models, laboratory experiments or observations of natural analogs such as volcanic eruptions, ship tracks, or dust storms. While there is broad consensus both in- and outside the scientific community that better understanding of the climate system is beneficial to policy makers and society, the value of improved knowledge of SRM has been highly controversial. Yet, it is evident that SRM research can contribute to quantifying and reducing important uncertainties pertaining to fundamental knowledge on the workings of the Earth system, while also providing essential specific knowledge on positive and negative impacts of SRM to inform future decisions.

In 2016, a group of SRM experts gathered at the Institute for advanced sustainability studies in Potsdam for a workshop to formulate a set of low environmental impact SRM experiment proposals. We present these as a non-exhaustive set of possible experiments with no measurable environmental side effects that could provide valuable information that cannot be obtained from models or lab experiments. Both perturbative and non-perturbative experiments are proposed for different SRM methods including marine cloud brightening, stratospheric aerosol injection and cirrus cloud thinning.

It was found that in the time period between 2016 and now several of the research questions addressed in the experiment proposals have been answered by unrelated experimental environmental science studies, whereas no experimental studies have been carried out in the context of SRM. This finding shows that there is significant overlap in high priority research questions and outcomes of non-SRM and SRM environmental research. In addition, it shows that non-controversial environmental science experiments can provide similar SRM-relevant knowledge as dedicated SRM-experiments. Given that one of the main arguments against SRM research is the potential danger of the acquired knowledge, the finding that obtained knowledge of non-SRM and SRM experiments can be similar raises the question which effect the declared relationship to SRM on outdoors research proposal review and regulation should be.

How to cite: Futerman, G., Janssens, M., de Vries, I., Dykema, J., Parker, A., and Hunt, H.: Governance and science implications of low environmental impact outdoors solar radiation management experiments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7797, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7797, 2022.

Urban areas are notable sources of atmospheric CO₂ and cities are currently setting up climate programs with the aim of carbon neutrality in the near future. For example, two major cities in Southern Finland, Helsinki and Turku, have set their targets for 2035 and 2029, respectively. Carbon neutrality can be achieved by reducing carbon emissions, compensating them, and / or strengthening carbon sinks in urban vegetation and soils, the last of which is often deemed the most cost-efficient option. However, the current understanding of biogenic carbon cycling in urban environments is based on dynamics observed in more well-known ecosystems such as forests and agricultural lands. Urban ecosystems differ from non-urban areas in terms of temperature, precipitation and water cycling, pollution, and the level of human-induced disturbance. Thus, there is a need for observations on urban carbon to accurately model and estimate the carbon sinks and stocks in urban green space.

We aimed to monitor urban biogenic carbon cycle with an extensive field campaign carried out around the SMEAR III ICOS station in 2020–2022, accompanied by a few satellite sites around the capital region of Finland. In this presentation, we will show soil carbon pools and the dynamics of soil respiration at five different types of urban green space: a managed park lawn with and without trees, small urban forest, apple orchard, and street tree site. Soil respiration was measured with both regularly repeated manual chamber measurements and automatic chambers throughout two growing seasons. Soil carbon stock was estimated by soil samplings conducted in 2020 and 2021. We investigate the role of different drivers in soil CO₂ emission at the various urban green space types and compare those to corresponding metrics measured in non-urban areas. In addition, we test the applicability of Yasso model to simulate the soil carbon dynamics in urban areas.

How to cite: Karvinen, E., Järvi, L., Viskari, T., Havu, M., Kuuri-Riutta, O., Rauhamäki, P., Soininen, J., and Kulmala, L.: The potential of urban soils for carbon neutral cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7868, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7868, 2022.

There are many uncertainties surrounding solar radiation management (SRM), not in the least concerning the technological feasibility of hypothetical deployment scenarios. In sulfate stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) scenarios, the radiative effectiveness of the aerosol is governed by its size distribution. In turn, aerosol size distribution is governed by the aerosol-precursor injection rate and injection plume conditions. Hence, uncertainties in cost and environmental impact of aircraft-based sulfate stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) are primarily determined by uncertainties in injection plume conditions. In addition, the climate impacts and side effects of SAI as simulated by climate models depend on the prescribed initial conditions concerning aerosol characteristics, which also hinge on injection plume dynamics and microphysics.

Up to now, studies into aircraft-based SAI have used simplified plume models, which estimate plume dynamics with considerable uncertainty, and which do not account for effects of the local plume dynamics on the microphysical processes. Here, we work towards reducing this uncertainty by using full computational fluid dynamics representations of plume dynamics within simulations incorporating state-of-the-art microphysics models for the computation of aerosol size distributions in aircraft engine plumes.

In order to anchor our approach in the current literature, we first consider simplified problems with the objective of validating our methodology using existing results. These experiments confirm the attainability of favourable initial aerosol size distributions under roughly the same conditions as shown with other lower-fidelity models. However, our results retain disagreement with respect to previous studies concerning the exact aerosol growth behaviour, highlighting a sensitivity to model choice which may also explain apparent contradictions in those previous studies. 

We then consider a RANS computational fluid dynamic representation of an engine plume. This differs from the simplified plume representation in several ways, including realistic local variations in temperature, vorticity, and eddy viscosity resulting from the inflow determined using a state-of-the-art engine model. This representation is currently being employed in combination with the previously validated microphysical models to simulate realistic aerosol size evolutions for aircraft-based delivery scenarios.

We anticipate our results to (1) provide a higher-confidence foundation on which to base the discussion concerning technological feasibility of SAI-based SRM and (2) constrain the uncertainty range of inputs for model and impact studies, improving reliability of simulations of (desired and undesired) effects of potential SRM scenarios and thereby informing the scientific and public debate.  

How to cite: Tluk, A., de Vries, I., Janssens, M., and Hulshoff, S.: Towards higher fidelity simulations of aerosol growth in aircraft plumes for feasibility and impact assessment of sulfate stratospheric aerosol injection, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7923, 2022.

Abstract

The challenges posed by the growth of urbanization in Egypt and the development of new cities play an essential role in applying the circular economy (CE) in the construction materials sector and the priorities for promoting sustainable construction activities in the future. Therefore, the construction sector has many adverse environmental impacts on energy and natural resources consumption. Starting from materials production, operation until disposal to landfills. Consequently, the industry is considered one of the most consumers of non-renewable resources and producer of CO2 emissions. On the other hand, applying Nature-based solutions (NbS) to enhance sustainability by protecting the ecosystems and maintaining economic benefits plays a vital role, especially for new Egyptian cities. The research aims to investigate the role of applying NbS for achieving CE in construction materials and eliminate its negative impact in the scope of three factors:  green building materials, waste management systems, renewable energy use. The current research attempts to answer how NbS can improve the CE and reduce environmental impacts of the construction materials sector. Therefore, the SOWT analysis investigated the strengths, opportunities, weaknesses, and threats of using the NbS strategies for three different construction sites in Egypt. Furthermore, the survey questionnaire was applied to identify the interactions between the parameters derived from 40 participants such as consultants, architecture engineers, civil engineers, site engineers, project managers and review the previous research efforts. As a result, a conceptual framework was created for the construction materials considering reduce, reuse, recycle, recovery, and disposal, to identify the impact of the implementation of NbS on achieving sustainable development strategies in the Egyptian construction sector. The result showed that the NbS could effectively promote the construction sector and achieve environmental and economic benefits, which consequently help the transition to CE. Therefore, there is the necessity for developing new sustainable policies and cooperation between public and private sectors to support the investments of sustainable strategies in the construction materials market and increase Egyptian society's awareness of the benefits of NbS in economic, environmental, and social aspects.

 Keywords, Nature-based solution, Construction materials, Circular Economy, Egypt 

How to cite: Marey, H., Szabó, G., and Kozma, G.: Using the Nature-Based Solutions for Applying Circular Economy for the Construction Materials Sector in Egypt, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7997, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7997, 2022.

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century currently seems to be an ambitious target which will potentially be accompanied by a period of temperature overshoot. Achieving this climate goal might require massive carbon dioxide removal on large scales. Regardless of the feasibility of such removals, their effects on biogeochemical cycles and climate are not well understood. Changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and climate alter the CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and the underlying carbon reservoirs of land and ocean. Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedback metrics are useful tools for quantifying such changes in the carbon uptake by land and ocean, currently acting as a sink of carbon. We investigate the changes in carbon feedbacks under overshoot scenarios that could influence mitigation pathways to achieve the temperature goal. An ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) Earth system models that conducted an idealized ramp-up and ramp-down experiment (1pctCO2, with increasing and later decreasing [CO2] at a rate of 1% per year) has been used and compared against a scenario simulation involving negative emissions (SSP5-3.4-OS). The analyses are based on results from biogeochemically coupled (where land and ocean respond to rising CO2 levels but the climate is kept constant) and fully coupled simulations. For the positive emission phases, the model-mean global average carbon-climate feedback looks roughly similar between the SSP5-3.4-OS and the 1pctCO2 simulations, with a gradual monotonic decreasing behavior in absolute values which translates to a reduction in land and ocean uptakes. The carbon-concentration feedback in SSP5-3.4-OS is larger than in the 1pctCO2 simulations over the ocean. Both the ocean and land simulate an increase in carbon uptake during the ramp-up, while during the ramp-down, their uptakes show a hysteresis behavior. This feature is more prominent in the idealistic 1pctCO2 experiment with a higher [CO2] growth rate and without land use change effects than in the more realistic SSP5-3.4-OS scenario. Also, the time evolution of the global annual carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks seem to be very similar over natural land areas. In addition, changes in carbon fluxes are compared over the high latitude permafrost and non-permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Over land, the carbon-concentration feedback metric is decomposed into different terms to investigate the contributions from changes in live vegetation carbon pools and soil carbon pools. This indicates that the feedback is dominated by the residence time of carbon in vegetation and soil. Furthermore, building on previous studies, feedback metrics are also calculated using an alternative approach of instantaneous flux-based feedback metrics to further compare differences between models. The difference between the two approaches can be seen more obviously in the geographical distribution of the two feedbacks, especially for the negative emission phases of the 1pctCO2 experiment.

How to cite: Asaadi, A., Schwinger, J., Lee, H., Tjiputra, J., Arora, V., Séférian, R., Liddicoat, S., Hajima, T., Santana-Falcòn, Y., and Jones, C.: Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized and a scenario simulation of carbon dioxide removal in CMIP6 Earth system models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8269, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8269, 2022.

With the advances of the Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) concept, much attention is being given to its potential for climate change adaptation. Accordingly, Nature-Based adaptation Solutions (NBaS) have become central elements for action on climate. In the EU, the Horizon 2020 (H2020) program translates the ambition of positioning Europe as the world’s leader in NBS. In an effort to draw a comprehensive roadmap of these efforts, this study investigates 21 H2020 projects that utilize NBaS throughout different ecosystems. The main objectives of this study are to provide an inventory of current knowledge, to extract identified risks and knowledge limitations, and to propose future research orientations.

For this purpose, the CORDIS database was used to identify the relevant projects. Using the keyword nature-based solutions and through a rigorous search of research topics and programs, the following projects were retained (based on the existence of deliverables at the time of this study): CLEARING HOUSE, CLEVER Cities, Connecting Nature, DRYvER, EdiCitNet, EuPOLIS, FutureMARES, GrowGreen, NAIAD, Nature4Cities, NATURVATION, OPERADNUM, PHUSICOS, proGIreg, RECONECT, REGREEN, RENATURE, ThinkNature, UNaLab, Urban GreenUP and URBiNAT. Consequently, 137 deliverables were individually examined. Numerous findings were then obtained. These were divided into general and specific results.

In terms of general results, the definition of the NBS concept is still debated: some projects adopt the EC’s definition, others compare between the EC’s and the IUCN’s definition, while many reformulate their own. Second, the continental geographical gradient of pilot sites follows a dense South-West orientation in contrast to a less developed North-Eastern line. In terms of target ecosystems, 61% of the projects target the urban realm, while freshwater ecosystems come second. The coastal, natural and mountainous environments are the least addressed. The focus on urban systems makes most of the generated knowledge, designed solutions and monitoring methods more or less restricted to this realm, hence not necessarily applicable in other settings. Regarding climatic challenges, urban heat islands and floods came first. These are followed by sea level rise, intense precipitation, heat stress, storms, erosion and landslides.

In terms of specific findings, current knowledge and limitations were grouped in-depth per ecosystem (urban, freshwater, marine-coastal, mountainous, forest-natural, and agricultural) and per main research topics (climate change adaptation, risks of oversimplification, system complexity, uncertainty, the scale quandary, progress measuring-monitoring, and disservices). On this basis, several research perspectives were then proposed. Accordingly, interest in NBS-NBaS should extend beyond the urban ecosystem, while deeper knowledge on nature (the physical fundamentals of the N) in NBS-NBaS is needed. It is also important to understand if NBaS are intended to withstand weather change and/or climate change. For the implementation of wide-scale solutions, an extension beyond conservationism is needed, and a better accommodation of uncertainties is required. Therefore, understanding ecosystem tipping points, thresholds, and the resource efficiency of NBaS is primordial. Finally, it is crucial to acknowledge that both ecosystem development and climate change will keep progressing throughout the existence of NBaS. Therefore, the interacting co-evolution of ecosystems, NBaS and climate change should be further studied where their interaction could be forgotten.

How to cite: Al Sayah, M., Versini, P.-A., and Schertzer, D.: A systematic analysis of Horizon 2020 Nature-Based adaptation Solutions projects, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8598, 2022.

Clear implementing plan for Nature-based solutions (NBS) beyond conceptualization is critical for successful in mitigating urban carbon emissions. In this paper, we demonstrate an approach to deploy nature-based solutions on high-resolution (25x25-meter) land use grid and its carbon emission reduction benefits for 50 major European Union (EU) cities. The deployment process takes 3 parts: 1) downgrading carbon emission data with larger spatial scales (10x10km GID data) to high-resolution cells using land use and socioeconomic data; 2) identifying opportunities and suitability of deploying NBS on these land use cells from a database with meta-analysis on the emission reduction potentials of different types of NBS; 3) Estimating total carbon emission potentials from spatial deployment and coupling of of multiple NBS with parametric simulation. Our results indicate that vast areas of urbanized and un-urbanized lands in EU cities can apply NBS to further mitigate carbon emissions. The reduction potential is huge and can contribute to a critical wedge of carbon neutrality.     

How to cite: Pan, H., Page, J., Cong, C., and Kalantari, Z.: Spatial deployment of Nature-based Solutions to support carbon neutrality for 50 EU cities., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8613, 2022.

Calls are rising for ecosystems, or green infrastructure, to complement engineered infrastructure for more effective disaster risk reduction and climate governance. Key international framework agreements, including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and the 2021 Glasgow Pact, noted the importance of ensuring the integrity of all ecosystems in addressing climate change and disaster risk. For example, vegetation can stabilize slopes to reduce mountain hazards and sand dunes, mangroves, and/or seagrasses can reduce the impacts of coastal storms.  However, there are gaps in the scientific evidence on this topic with few comprehensive, peer-reviewed studies to support decision-making on green infrastructure for disaster risk reduction.

This study systematically reviews 529 English-language articles published between 2000 and 2019. The objective was to catalogue the extent of knowledge and confidence in the role of ecosystems in reducing disaster risk. The main question this review addresses is: What is the evidence of the role that ecosystem services and/or functions contribute to disaster risk reduction? We modified the review methodology established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to identify the robustness of evidence and level of agreement on the role of ecosystems in attenuating most common types of hazards.

The data demonstrate very robust links on the role of ecosystems in forest fire management, urban flooding and slope stabilization to reduce mountain hazards in a cost-effective manner. The study also highlights how ecosystems provide multiple services and functions in addition to regulating hazards, e.g., provisioning services for reducing vulnerability. The review highlights several research gaps, notably a geographic concentration of studies on urban areas of Europe and North America, and insufficient policy-relevant research on coastal, dryland, and watershed areas, especially in Asia, Africa and Latin America. To conclude, more attention should be paid to filling these research gaps and developing performance standards, which would provide policy-makers with increased confidence in investing in green infrastructure for disaster risk reduction and climate governance.

How to cite: Sudmeier-Rieux, Dr. K. and the Co-authors: Ecosystems for disaster risk reduction: what is the scientific evidence?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9109, 2022.

There is growing awareness of the role that agricultural soils can play for climate change mitigation. Agricultural management that increases soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks constitutes a nature-based solution for carbon dioxide removal. As soils store about twice the amount of carbon found in the atmosphere, even small relative increases could significantly reduce global warming.

However, increasing SOC requires management changes that come with costs to the farmers. In this regard, soil carbon certificates could provide a much-needed financial incentive: Farmers register their fields with commercial providers who certify any SOC increase achieved during a set period of time. The certificates are then sold on the voluntary carbon-offset market. We analysed the suitability of soil carbon certificates for climate change mitigation from the perspectives of soil sciences, agricultural management, and governance. In particular, we addressed questions of quantification, additionality, permanence, changes in emissions, leakage effects, transparency, legitimacy and accountability, as well as synergies and trade-offs with other societal targets.

Soil properties and the mechanisms by which carbon is stored in soils have strong implications for the assessment. Soils have a limited storage capacity, and SOC is not sequestered but its SOC stocks are the dynamic result of plant derived inputs and losses mainly in the form of microbial respiration. The higher the SOC stock, the higher the annual carbon inputs that is needed to maintain it. If carbon friendly management is discontinued, elevated SOC levels will therefore revert to their original level.

We found that while changes in agricultural management that increase SOC are highly desirable and offer multiple-co benefits with climate change adaptation, soil carbon certificates are unsuitable as a tool. They are unlikely to deliver the climate change mitigation they promise as certificate providers cannot guarantee permanence and additionality of SOC storage over climate relevant time-frames. Where the certified carbon storage is non-permanent or fails to meet criteria of additionality, the use of such certificates to advertise products as “carbon-neutral” may be construed as false advertising.

How to cite: Paul, C., Don, A., Bartkowski, B., Wiesmeier, M., Weigl, S., Mayer, S., Steffens, M., Wolf, A., Dönmez, C., and Helming, K.: Suitability of soil carbon certificates for climate change mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10433, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10433, 2022.

Globally, there is clear evidence that unsustainable urbanisation and climate change are pressing challenges for our systems. Nature-based Solutions are starting to be considered as a mechanism to help underpin and tackle societal and global challenges such as biodiversity loss, ecosystem depletion, resource use or human and ecological well-being. Nevertheless, still disciplines are working separately and enabling the co-design of Nature-based Solutions to reach sustainable urban planning in cities is far to be considered for climate adaptation and climate neutrality in cities. Therefore, the study intends to overcome those research gaps mentioned. On the way to tackle those issues, the paper frames the necessity to align science, policy and society goals to reach a sustainable future and bring sectors together to ensure and help build an inclusive, healthy and a resilient world. The methodology is based on a systematic review process where we explore the state of the art on the matter. This paper intends to open the discussion of a holistic, systemic and comprehensive approach to mainstreaming Nature-based Solutions  and  presents a novel pathway for transdisciplinary climate and environmental planning action. A novel conceptualization; socio-ecological and environmental-economic framework for Nature-based Solutions action plan with defined key principles to enable the mainstreaming of nature-based solutions into policies and governance. The study recommends and proposes specific nature-based solutions strategies to underpin the lack of coherence that sometimes shows in some approaches when designing and planning cities, implementing policies for sustainable urban planning and design, facilitating ecosystem restoration and human well-being. To reach an environmentally, socially, economically, locally, ecologically and politically sustainable, circular and resilient Europe by 2030 to help deliver the global policy agendas and the European Green Deal and its strategies.

How to cite: Garcia Mateo, M. C. and Tillie, N.: Enabling the mainstreaming of nature-based solutions into policy-making and governance: Holistic and systemic approach and coherence across policies to build a sustainable, circular and resilient planet and tackle societal challenges, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10493, 2022.

A new nature based solution for capturing the entire man-made emission of carbon dioxide per year and locking it away in the deep ocean, called ECOPIA^TM, has been devised by a marine think tank, MyOcean Resources Ltd. This is a global solution to the anthropogenic climate change problem, without environmental downsides - it provides the fix. By using the characteristics of the Ocean, ECOPIA^TM removes the excess atmospheric CO₂, de-acidifies the ocean’s waters, creates new sustainable fisheries, and most importantly allows the economies of the world to continue to grow and prosper.

ECOPIA^TM is able to address the anthropogenic climate change problem whilst having a positive global impact on economic growth. It enables continued economic growth for all nations by balancing the problem of excess atmospheric CO₂ rather than following strategies that require a reduction in economic activities. Trying to reduce the amount of excess CO₂ emitted by economies can be considered the biggest waste management issue the world has to solve; however current strategies have had trouble getting traction due to their negative impact on economic growth. 

By transillumination of the giant deserts of the Ocean, we can reduce the amount of atmospheric CO₂ at the same time as de-acidifying the oceans, by empowering natural oceanic primary productivity simply through the provision of light. This allows ECOPIA^TM to be an effective CO₂ waste management solution for the atmosphere. Rather than having to harm economic growth through difficult to achieve emissions reductions, companies can work with ECOPIA^TM to genuinely offset their atmospheric CO₂ emissions, through photosynthetic CO₂ uptake.

These enormous deserts of the sub-tropical open oceans, one seventh (~ 50 million km²) of the whole of the Earth’s ocean area, are reportedly getting bigger; with productive surface waters being replaced by an increase in the minimally productive surface waters of the oligotrophic gyres, at a rate of 0.8 million km² per year . ECOPIA^TM in total only requires 0.2 million km² of those gyres, just one quarter of the current increase in area per year.

Many of the nature based solutions have significant uncertainties that largely come about from the farming-like practise of changing the composition of the ‘soil’ or in this case the ocean waters. ECOPIA^TM takes a different approach, that of channelling light down to the depths where there are plenty of naturally determined nutrients and seed population, thus we are no longer ‘farming’ we are simply providing light. Furthermore, as there is no strict geo-engineering involved, ECOPIA^TM provides no mechanism for a preferential pressure on the naturally determined diversity of the light cultured ecosystem.

It has been noted by the UK's, HRH the Prince of Wales, amongst others, that the global anthropogenic climate change issue can only be solved by Industry. ECOPIA^TM stands out in that it is self-fundable, both in infrastructure and operational costs, via the use of Carbon Credits at today’s prices, allowing Industry to solve the issue in an affordable way.

How to cite: Allen, J., Fitzgerald, C., and Franks, L.: Earth Climate Optimisation Productivity Island Array (ECOPIATM), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10608, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10608, 2022.

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) emitted from agricultural soils makes up a significant part of the collective agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These emission are to a large extent caused directly or indirectly by the application of nitrogenous fertilizer and there is a strong demand for mitigation strategies.

Nitrous oxide is produced in the soil in a range of different processes but mainly in microbial nitrification and denitrification. A number of factors exert influence on these microbial processes in the soil, most notably the oxygen concentration, availability of ammonium and nitrate, available organic matter and diffusivity, and fairly advanced process-based simulation models are often used in attempts to simulate the amount of N₂O emitted. Here we propose using more a simplistic modelling approach to provide a novel risk assessment tool for nitrogenous fertilizer applications to be implemented in Danish farmers field management programmes.

At SEGES Innovation we have unique database access to field activity data from Danish farmers - e.g. crop sequence, fertilizer applications, residue handling, soil texture - covering more than 85 % of the Danish cultivated area. Based on these data and field specific climate data, a soil water balance model (Plauborg et al. 1995) and soil organic carbon model (Taghizadeh-Toosi et al. 2014) are running in daily timesteps for all fields in the database. These models provide, respectively, the daily level of WFPS in the soil and the organic matter turnover rate in the soil simulated during the weather forecast period of 10 days. Those two outputs are combined with a simulated soil temperature in a simplified version of the NGAS-model (Parton et al. 1996) to give a rough simulated N₂O-emission for any planned fertilizer application throughout the weather forecast period.

The risk assessment tool exhibits this daily simulated N₂O-emission as a risk evaluation of fertilizer application to the farmer in field management programmes, where future field activities are entered and logged. The objective is to lower the GHG emission by reducing the number of fertilizer applications right at peak N₂O-emission conditions, once the farmers are presented with this information.    

How to cite: Vestergaard Poulsen, H., Bruun, S., Skov Nielsen, C., and Kolind Hvid, S.: N2O-emission risk assessment tool for nitrogenous fertilizer applications, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11878, 2022.

The deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) processes is required, as well as strong and immediate emission reductions, to limit the global temperature increase “well below to 2°C above pre-industrial levels” as required by the Article 2 of the Paris Agreement.

Among the CDR processes, ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) allows to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere and simultaneously to counteract the ongoing ocean acidification caused by the increased CO₂ atmospheric concentration. In the framework of the DESARC (DEcreasing Seawater Acidification Removing Carbon) MARESANUS research project, different strategies to produce decarbonized slaked lime (SL), i.e. Ca(OH)₂, and to discharge it in the seawater have been evaluated.

The feasibility and the potential of OAE were evaluated at the global scale and at the Mediterranean Sea basin scale. Two different logistic scenarios for the discharge of SL were analyzed: new dedicated ships, and partial load on modified existing dry bulk and container ships. The data on the existing global fleet of vessels and marine routes has been elaborated to assess the potential discharge of SL.

Through the life-cycle assessment methodology, the efficiency of removing CO₂ from the atmosphere was evaluated, as well as other potential environmental impacts connected to SL production and transport. The “cradle-to-grave” approach has been applied to different configurations of the process, that consider both biomass gasification and the use of renewables as a source of energy for limestone calcination, as well as eventual CO₂/H₂ separation and CO₂ storage.

The data collected for the life cycle inventory were mainly obtained from the preliminary design of the process and the scientific literature, as well as from the ecoinvent database. According to the environmental footprint method implemented in SimaPro software, sixteen impact categories for assessing the burdens on the environment and human are evaluated, with a particular focus on Climate change, Land use,  and Mineral and metals use.

The results show that for all the analyzed configurations, the process has a potential negative impact on the Climate change category, i.e. there is a benefit for the environment in terms of CO₂ removal from the atmosphere. Since the avoided impacts are related to the source for hydrogen, the type of avoided source has a relevant role and is subjected to a sensitivity analysis.

Finally, the availability of limestone for the large-scale development of ocean alkalinisation have been evaluated, considering in particular the deposits of pure limestone near the coastlines, that  could minimize logistic and transportation activities.

Results show that pure carbonate potential resources are of several trillion tons and are not a constraint for the development of global-scale ocean liming. A large part of pure limestone resources is nearby the coastline, in areas with no or low vegetation cover, mainly in North Africa and Iran. Global limestone yearly production is similar to coal, and the required upscaling compared to the current extraction rate is far lower for limestone than for other materials considered for OAE, such as olivine, magnesite and brucite.

How to cite: Campo, F. P., Caserini, S., and Grosso, M.: Feasibility, potential and environmental impacts of ocean alkalinity enhancement for removing CO2 from the atmosphere and counteracting seawater acidification, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12467, 2022.

The Arctic is an area with unique climatic qualities on Earth. Located behind the Arctic Circle, the region is characterized by numerous phenomena such as polar day (in summer) and polar night (in winter), which affect the state of well-being of people living there. The numerous aurorae are examples of magnetic storms whose health effects are most pronounced in this region. Extreme temperatures can be recorded in these zones, especially in winter. At the same time, it is there that the environment shows great sensitivity to changing climatic conditions and human activities. A small increase in temperature can melt permafrost and methane clathrates. At this time, climate change affects the ecosystem of the plant and animal world. At the same time, it is in the Arctic that there are important deposits of energy resources, non-ferrous metals and others. In the Arctic regions there are trade routes connecting the continents (the so-called "Northern Road"). Growing interest in the Arctic contributes to its urbanization. This process is also important in a broader context. Many of the technologies that prove themselves in these harsh conditions will also be applicable in other climate zones. The Arctic is becoming a testing ground for human missions in harsh conditions, a way to survive in an unfavorable climate, and to test pro-environmental technologies. An important advantage of the Arctic is also its great similarity to the climatic conditions of the warmest zones on Mars. However, compared to Mars, planning engineering projects in the Arctic has many advantages. The presence of air at normal pressure, while not preventing the construction of airtight capsules, allows for easier evacuation of personnel in the event of a failure of life support systems.  Working people at various stations in the Arctic can be just as tested for the vulnerability of long periods of being in a small confined space. Nevertheless, there are also numerous localities in the Arctic where people lead relatively normal lives, the best example being northern Scandinavia, which is currently the most urbanized area beyond the Arctic Circle.  Their experience of living in the extreme conditions of the north, the problems of urban development and transportation, environmental protection and many other areas of life in this zone, can be an important source of information for other inhabitants of Earth and Mars.  Issues related to the problems of environmental protection and the fight against pollution in this climate zone will be just as relevant in other zones, where there are many more opportunities to use, for example, renewable energy sources. In the long run, building stable urbanized human settlements in the Arctic will become an example of human activity in the region of Mars and (perhaps) other regions of the Solar System. The authors present numerical data and possible scenarios of sustainable urbanization development in the Arctic based on selected examples of Scandinavian experience. They analyze which of them have universal character and are possible to apply also in other climatic conditions. 

How to cite: Rusek, A. and Huber, M.: "The Arctic - the first step towards the terraformation of Mars. Experiences from northern Europe.", EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12839, 2022.

Ecosystems and ecosystem services are key to helping achieve reduction in disaster risk, sustainable development, and climate change adaptation, and this is now recognized by major international framework agreements (Convention on Biological Diversity, 2014; United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015-2030). However, there is limited knowledge about the cost efficiency and socio-economic equity outcomes of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) compared to traditional engineered strategies.

In this study we developed a global database of more than 130 peer-reviewed studies, published between 2000 and 2020, that perform economic evaluations of NbS for Ecosystem-based Climate Adaptation (EbA) and Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR). Using meta-analysis techniques, we assess the existing scientific knowledge on the economic viability and performance of NbS for Eco-DRR and EbA, cataloguing outcomes both in terms of degree of economic efficiency and social equity. Our analysis includes multiple dimensions: geographic distribution of the published studies, types of ecosystems and ecosystem services evaluated, hazards and climate impacts analyzed, and economic methodologies used to perform economic efficiency evaluations (e.g., cost benefit analysis, stated/revealed preferences evaluation methods).

This study builds on a recent global assessment (Sudmeier-Rieux et al, 2021) that performs the first systematic review of Eco-DRR peer-reviewed studies across all disciplines. Their results show robustness of evidence and level of agreement on the role of ecosystems in attenuating 30 types of hazards, based on the assessment methodology established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our meta-analysis expands the 2021 review by evaluating the economic benefits associated with Eco-DRR and NbA approaches; by examining cost efficiency of Eco-DRR and NbA interventions compared to traditional engineering solutions; by performing equity assessments of the outcomes; and by studying how the NbS interventions reviewed contributed to the sustainable development goals (SDGs).

REFERENCE:

Sudmeier-Rieux, K., Arce-Mojica,T., Boehmer, H.J., Doswald, N., Emerton, L., Friess, D.A., Galvin, S., Hagenlocher, M., James, H., Laban, P., Lacambra, C., Lange, W., McAdoo, B.G., Moos, C., Mysiak, J., Narvaez, L., Nehren, U., Peduzzi, P1., Renaud, F.G., Sandholz, S., Schreyers, L., Sebesvari, Z., Tom, T., Triyanti, A., van Eijk, P., van Staveren, M., Vicarelli, M., Walz, Y. "Scientific evidence for ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction." Nature Sustainability (2021): 1-8. 

How to cite: Vicarelli, M., Kang, M., Leue, M., Shrestha, A., Wasielewski, D., Sudmeier-Rieux, K., Mysiak, J., Schütze, S., Marr, M., McAndrew, S., and Vance, M.: Scientific evidence of the economic benefits of ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction and ecosystem-based climate change adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13010, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13010, 2022.

Sedimentation ponds (SPs) are nature-based solutions (NBSs) for sustainable stormwater management. SPs control the quantity and quality of runoff and promote biodiversity. Hence, the optimal design of SPs is crucial for ecosystems resilience in urban and natural environments. This study aims to optimize the design of roadside SPs in terms of location and surface area, considering the resilience to stressors such as climate changes and pollution load variations. Accordingly, the highway runoff in a new 22 km highway (E18 Arendal-Tvedestrand) in southern Norway was simulated by the storm water management model (SWMM). The quantity and quality (BOD and TSS values) of highway runoff in all probable scenarios of existing uncertainties were estimated for potential outfall points using the repeated execution model of SWMM coded in MATLAB^®. The scenarios were defined based on applying best management practices (BMPs), including grass swale and infiltration trench in different sections of the road that work before SPs, climatic (rainfall quantity estimated by the LARS-WG model), and modeling uncertainties (buildup and washoff coefficients). The generated dataset was then applied to assess the resilience of sedimentation ponds in potential outfalls to climate change and pollution load shocks. The resiliency was quantified for three metrics, including the quantity and quality of receiving runoff to sedimentation ponds and biodiversity in ponds over 25 years (2020-2045). The biodiversity index was defined based on Shannon's Entropy computed from field observation in 12 highway sedimentation ponds across Norway. Using this procedure, it was determined that the proper arrangement of BMPs along the road and the optimal design of ponds enhance the resilience of SPs by 40% over time. This study makes important contributions to stormwater management, the resilient design of NBS, and achieving UN SDG6 (Clean water and sanitation).

How to cite: Ghorbani Mooselu, M., Liltved, H., Alizadeh, M. R., and Meland, S.: Optimal design of nature-based solutions in highway runoff management based on resilience to climate and pollution load changes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1425, 2022.

In the rush to decarbonise energy supplies to meet internationally agreed greenhouse gas emissions targets, solar parks (SPs) have proliferated around the world, with uncertain implications for the provision of ecosystem services (ES). SPs necessitate significant land use change due to low energy densities that could significantly affect the local environment. In the UK, SPs are commonly built on intensive arable land and managed as grasslands. This offers both risks and opportunities for ecosystem health, yet evidence of ecosystem consequences is scarce. Therefore, there is an urgent need to understand how ES assessments can be incorporated into land use decision making to promote SP development that simultaneously addresses the climate and biodiversity crises. We aim to provide some of the first scientific evidence to help answer this question by determining the effects of land use change for SPs in the UK on the provision of ecosystem services (e.g., biomass production, soil carbon storage) of hosting ecosystems. Through a Knowledge Transfer Partnership project between Lancaster University and Clarkson & Woods Ecological Consultants, 35 SPs in England and Wales were surveyed in summer 2021. Soil and vegetation data were collected from 420 sample plots (900 cm²) under different types of land use: underneath solar panels, between rows of solar arrays, and control sites (e.g., pastureland, areas set-aside for conservation). Total plant cover was significantly lower underneath solar panels and between solar arrays than on land set-aside for conservation, while land around the margins of SPs showed higher aboveground biomass of monocotyledons and forbs than on land underneath solar panels. Some measures of soil fertility (e.g., nitrogen) and soil organic matter, fractioned into particulate and mineral-associated organic matter, also varied significantly between these different land uses. These results have implications for land management within SPs and will enable optimisation of SP design and management to ensure the long-term delivery of ecosystem services within this fast-growing land use.

How to cite: Carvalho, F., Montag, H., Sharp, S., White, P., Clarkson, T., and Armstrong, A.: Effects of land use change for solar park development in the UK on ecosystem services, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1677, 2022.

Sustainable river management frameworks are based on the connection between citizens and nature. So far, though, the relationship between rivers and local populations has played a marginal role in river management. We present a blueprint questionnaire to characterize the perception of cultural ecosystem services and flood risk by locals, and how preferences change across the river landscape. We investigate how locals value the river and whether their preferences are affected by characteristics such as place of residence, age, frequency of visits and relation to the river. The approach is tested on the Tagliamento river, the last major free-flowing river in the Alps, which is characterized by debates on flood protection, flood management and ecological conservation. The questionnaire was filled in by more than 4000 respondents, demonstrating huge interest and willingness to contribute with their opinion on this topic. A participatory map of favorite places shows that most of the river is valued/appreciated by locals, with a high preference for the landscape of the braided middle course. River conservation is the main priority for most respondents across different stakeholder groups, highlighting the need for nature-based solutions in flood-risk management and demonstrating the mismatch between management choices and citizens´ values and priorities. Land-use planning is identified as a factor that can increase flood risk. The results highlight the necessity to tackle conservation, risk management and land-use planning together in order to develop risk-oriented river management strategies. More generally, this work points out that any river intervention should be pondered carefully accounting for its environmental impact also in terms of loss of cultural ecosystem services.

How to cite: Scaini, C., Stritih, A., Brouillet, C., and Scaini, A.: What locals want: (mapping) citizen preferences and priorities for an alpine river landscape, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2049, 2022.

Check dam plays a crucial role in controlling soil erosion on the Loess Plateau and reducing sediment loads in the Yellow River. Moreover, sediment deposition in check dams also provides valuable information for understanding of soil erosion on the Loess Plateau. Study on the influence of rainfall patterns on sediment yield in small catchments scale is significant for the reasonable arrangement of soil and water conservation measures, particularly for complex environments such as the wind-water erosion crisscross region. This study estimated sediment yield trapped by the check dam in Laoyeman catchment based on deposited flood couplets formed in erosion rainfall events during the period 1978-2010. All erosive rainfall were divided into three rainfall patterns according to the precipitation, rainfall duration and rainfall erosivity, and the correspondence analysis between sediment yield and rainfall pattern was analyzed. Results showed that there were 1.1´10⁵ t sediment deposited in the dam filed during the trapping history of the check dam as a whole. It has three obvious change stages, which had sediment yield of 4.53´10⁴ t during 1978-1988, 4.48´10⁴ t during 1988-1997, and 1.68´10⁴ t during 1997-2010, respectively. The stage 1989-1997 had the fastest annual deposition rate of 4.98×10³ t·year^-1, 20.9% and 286% faster than stage 1978-1988 and stage 1998-2010. For similar rainfall pattern in these three stages, sediment yield and the characteristic of flood couplet change were closely related to both rainfall erosivity and land use types. This was also approved by the significant decrease of sediment yield on condition of similar rainfall pattern in a decade before and after the implementation of Grain for Green project indicated that this project made a great contribution to the control of soil erosion on the Loess Plateau. The impact of rainfall pattern on sediment yield indicated that the largest sediment yield is initiated under short duration and high intensity rainfall events, while the sediment in the reservoir area is mainly deposited under the rainfall pattern of moderate precipitation, erosivity and duration. That is the reason for the wettest year (1995) had relatively low sediment deposition, while the year (1982) had strong rainfall erosivity had the maximum annual sediment yield (1.68´10⁴ t).

How to cite: Yin, M. and Zhang, J.: Influence of rainfall patterns on sediment yield in flood couplets of a check dam on the Chinese Loess Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3322, 2022.

A sustainable society is considered as an organic system, called an ecosystem, wherein all possible connected parameters are contributing to the conservation and evolution of the ecosystem containing life and landscape against stress from outside. Any ecosystem contains species of mutually interacting organisms all contributing to a dynamic equilibrium. An ecosystem is characterized by a population carrying capacity.

Humans are the only species on earth without a specific ecosystem. They live everywhere. The evolution did not adapt the homo sapiens to some ecosystem, on the contrary humans transformed all ecosystems to their own environment. Nature transforms into environment when humans are managing an ecosystem and transform it to their environment by attributing to nature the concept of natural capital as first instrumental step to economic growth, considering pollution as collateral damage.

Inspired by Enlightenment Anthropology (Shallow Ecology and Naess´ Deep Ecology) the UN encourages humanity to transform the consumption of raw matter, energy and food into a more sustainable cleaner way and even to start transition of energy resources and human diet in order to dampen the effects of global warming. Economic policy supports technological procedures avoiding waste of raw material and stimulating sustainable production processes and sustainable recuperation of raw material inside the produced items. The energy transition and preferable industrial production method, however, is globally imposed top-down without examining the consequences for local life of humans, non-humans (e.g. wind turbines near human settlement, bird mortality, destruction of the ecosystems of the seafloor) and the landscape (e.g. solar energy systems on hillside, water dams). Moreover, the global view favors large scale in policy as well as in means of production. However, this global transition organization of the global environment establish the new order characterized by its global and universal action and is not in balance with local ecosystems characterized by diversity of life and human management (so called perverted adaptation). Nature is reduced to things and just rewarded in terms of natural capital to sustain a Global Urban Middleclass consumptive society.

Therefore, we adopt Aldo Leopold ‘Land ethics’ (1949) and apply it to the shear coast of Southwestern Finland. We summarize his ideas in three hot headlines: (i) The land ethic changes the role of Homo sapiens from conqueror of the land-community to plain member and citizen; (ii) We abuse land because we regard it as a commodity belonging to us. When we see land as a community to which we belong to, we may begin to use it with love and respect; (iii) Anything is right when it tends to preserve the integrity, stability, and beauty of the biotic community. It is wrong when it tends otherwise. Participation to the ecosystem based on autonomous technology, i.e. not controlled, is focused on global energy transition to save the Universal Urban Middleclass Life. On the contrary, the concept of Land Ethics makes room for eco-development based on care for humans, culture, environment and nature in interaction with all ecosystems. In a nutshell: act local, interact global.

How to cite: Verstraeten, G. J. M. and Verstraeten, W. W.: The approach ‘think global, act local’ neglects the particular ecological value of ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3770, 2022.

When assessing strategies for implementation of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) it is fundamental to quantify all benefits for securing better, informed decision making. Particularly relevant is the quantification of their multiple co-benefits for communities and the environment. One of the most widespread techniques to quantify these values is to use contingent valuation (CV) methods, such as the Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) approach. Within the CV method, questionnaires are the main tool used to elicit the value attributed to a specific good by the respondents. However, many studies focus on site-specific economic valuation, whereby transferability to other locations is jeopardized. We therefore created a survey to explore how the valuation of an NBS is shaped by its relationship with the users (e.g. frequency and length of visits), and how these responses are linked to both the respondents and the sites’ characteristics (e.g. socio-economic status, size of the NBS, etc.).

We applied this method to a case study comprised of two distinct areas located in Aarhus, Denmark, asking users to explore their perception of the two NBS sites with different features. Both NBS sites have as overarching goals to (i) prevent flooding from cloudburst or water bodies, (ii) improve the biodiversity in the area, and (iii) benefit the local population, e.g. by providing more recreational areas. Despite these common goals, the two sites differ by a number of characteristics, i.e. size, location, and time passed since construction. One NBS involves a large artificial lake in a peri-urban setting, while the other is a small urban park. Respondents were allowed the option of either expressing a value for only one, or for both of the sites. 

We analyzed both responses that stated a WTP and protest votes, that is, responses that rejected the valuation scenario altogether. We found that older citizens are more likely to protest, as well as those not visiting the sites. For the respondents who accepted to state a WTP, their bids significantly increased when the improvement of nature and biodiversity was mentioned in the valuation scenario. Comparing the value given to the two different sites, the characteristics of the NBS seem to play a role in the respondents’ perception and use of the sites, which in turn enhances valuation. In our case study, people’s perception of the site and their relationship with it appear to have a stronger link with the WTP than their socio-economic characteristics. Specifically, frequency and length of visits, and interest in a good quality of nature were mostly related to a positive WTP.

The inclusion of people-NBS relational variables in benefit quantifications appears to be an essential tool to realize a more realistic economic valuation, as well as correctly design NBS in order to achieve the desired impacts. Understanding the underlying synergies between the multiple co-benefits of NBS, their features and the users’ perception is decisive for maximizing these strategies’ potential and avoiding missing opportunities.

How to cite: Viti, M., Löwe, R., Sørup, H. J. D., Mcknight, U. S., and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.: Assessing the interconnections between the characteristics, perception, and valuation of Nature-Based Solutions: A case study from Aarhus, Denmark, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3784, 2022.

Over the past decade, we witnessed a rapid growth in the use of social media data when assessing  cultural ecosystem services (CESs), like modelling the supply-demand relationships. Researchers increasingly use user-generated content (predominantly geotagged pictures and texts from Flickr, Twitter, VK.com) as a spatially explicit proxy of CES demand. However, for modelling CES supply most of such studies relied on simplistic geospatial data, such as land cover and digital elevation models. As a result, our understanding of the favourable environmental conditions underlying good landscape experience remains weak and overly generic.

Our study aims to detect the spatial disparities between population density and CES supply in Estonia in order to prioritise them for further in-depth CES assessment and green and blue infrastructure improvements. We relied on Flickr and VK.com photographs to detect the usage of three CESs: passive landscape watching, active outdoor recreation, and wildlife watching (biota observations at organism and community levels) with automated image content recognition via Clarifai API and subsequent topic modelling. Then, we used Landsat-8 cloudless mosaic, digital elevation and digital surface models, as well as land cover model to derive 526 environmental variables (textural, spectral indices and other indicators of landscape physiognomy) via the Google Earth Engine platform. We conducted an ensemble environmental niche modelling to analyse the relative strength and directions of relationships between these predictors and the observed occurrence of CES demand. Based on multicollinearity and relative importance analysis, we selected 21 relevant and non-collinear indicators of CES supply. With these indicators as inputs, we then trained five models, popular in environmental niche modelling: Boosted Regression Trees, Generalized Linear Model, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline, Maxent, and Random Forest. Random Forest performed better than the other models for all three CES types, with the average 10-fold cross-validation area under curve > 0.9 for landscape watching, >0.87 for outdoor recreation, and >0.85 for wildlife watching. Our modelling allowed us to estimate the share of the Estonian population residing in the spatial clusters of systematically high and low environmental suitability for three considered CESs. The share of the population residing in the clusters of low environmental suitability for landscape watching, outdoor recreation, and wildlife watching is 5.5%, 3.1%, and 7.3%, respectively. These results indicate that dozens of thousands of people in Estonia (population is >1.3 million) likely have fewer opportunities for everyday usage of considered CESs. However, these results are biased as there was not enough evidence in social media for CES use in some of these areas.

Although our results should be treated with caution, because social media data are likely to contain a considerable sampling bias, we have demonstrated the added value of remote sensing data for CES supply estimation. Given nearly global and continuously updated satellite imagery archives, remote sensing opens new perspectives for monitoring the loss and gains in landscape suitability for CES across temporal and spatial scales. As such, we can better account for the intangible underlying geospatial features that can influence  economic and environmental decision-making.

How to cite: Karasov, O., Heremans, S., Külvik, M., Domnich, A., Burdun, I., Kull, A., Helm, A., and Uuemaa, E.: Integrating remote sensing and social media data advances assessment of cultural ecosystem services, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4971, 2022.

An increasing world population and change in consumer preferences necessitate the need to increase food production to meet the demand of a changing world. Intensified agriculture and an accelerated climate crisis with increasing weather extremes threaten the resource base needed to improve crop production. Maize yield obtained by farmers in the guinea savannah zone of Ghana is generally low due to low soil fertility status resulting from continuous cropping coupled with low use of external inputs. Integrated Soil Fertility Management (ISFM) practices have proven to sustainably increase maize yield. However, majority of the farmers practicing ISFM till their land conventionally, potentially resulting in substantial greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions that contribute to global climate change. However, there is dearth of information on GHG emissions regarding crop production systems in sub-Saharan Africa in general and Ghana in particular. Hence, within a field trial we seek to investigate the impact of different tillage practices and ISFM applied to sustain maize yield, on net CO₂ or ecosystem exchange (NEE) and net carbon (C) balance (NECB). The field trial was established at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research-Savanna Agricultural Research Institute in Northern region of Ghana. A split plot design was used with the main plot treatments being conventional tillage and reduced tillage and the subplot treatments being factorial combination of organic and inorganic fertilizers at three levels each. To determine NEE and thereon based estimates of NECB, an innovative, customized, low-cost manual, dynamic closed chamber system was used. The system consists of transparent (V: 0.37 m³, A: 0.196 m²; for NEE measurements) and opaque chambers (for ecosystem respiration (R_eco) measurements) of the same size. Diurnal regimes of R_eco and NEE fluxes were measured twice a month by repeatedly deploying chambers for 5 to 10min on the 3 repetitive measurement plots (PVC frames inserted 5 cm deep into the soil as collars) per treatment. CO₂ concentration increase and decrease over chamber deployment time was detected by portable, inexpensive Arduino based CO₂ logging systems, consisting of a battery powered microcontroller (Arduino Uno) and data logging unit (3 sec frequency) connected to an NDIR-CO₂ sensor (SCD30; ± 30 ppm accuracy), air temperature and humidity (DHT-22) as well as air pressure sensor (BMP280). Measured CO₂ fluxes were subsequently gap-filled to obtain seasonal NEE. C import and export were further on added to NEE to determine the NECB for each treatment. In parallel to CO₂ exchange measurement campaigns, agronomic and crop growth indices such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were performed biweekly at all plots. Here we present NEE and NECB balances for the first crop growth period.

Keywords: Tillage, Integrated soil fertility management, CO₂ emission, Zea mays, net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB)

How to cite: Asante, M., Naab, J., Agyei Frimpong, K., Traore, K., Augustin, J., and Hoffmann, M.: Effect of soil management practices on soil carbon dynamics under maize cultivation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6317, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6317, 2022.

In 2021, the International Guidelines on Natural and Nature Based Features for Flood Risk Management  were published, as a result of a joint project between the Rijkswaterstaat (Netherlands), the Environment Agency (England) and the Army Corps of Engineers (USA). These Guidelines give direction in the application of Nature Based Solutions (NBS) for coastal and fluvial systems. In this contribution we will focus on the fluvial part of the guidelines. We will briefly discuss the process that lead to the origin of the Guidelines and discuss the intended use. It is important to realize that the location within a catchment, and the scale of a catchment determine the specifications of the most optimal NBS. Considering the classical ‘source-pathway-receptor’ approach, in the source of a catchment, NBS aim to hold back the water in the headwaters of larger catchments, enhancing management of water and sediment. In the pathways-receptor (floodplains),  NBS are more focussed on increasing the discharge capacity of the main stem. In smaller catchments, also temporarily storage of water in the floodplains occurs, if flooding of such a temporary nature can be accommodated. Rather than a detailed instruction guide, the Guidelines are intended to give best practices and list important points of attention when applying NBS. Furthermore, they act as inspiration through the many case studies that are listed.

We will also connect the Guidelines to other initiatives on the application of NBS, for example the impact that NBS might have on reaching the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. This requires a proper assessment framework which has been developed in adjacent projects and which values the added co-benefits that NBS have, compared to grey or grey-green alternatives. These benefits are also addressed in the Guidelines. Finally, we will share some thoughts on upscaling and mainstreaming NBS and the actions that are needed to accomplish that.

How to cite: Schielen, R., Spray, C., Haring, C., Guy, J., and Burgess-Gamble, L.: Application of the International Guidelines on Natural and Nature Based Features for Flood Risk Management and the way forward, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7121, 2022.

PHUSICOS platform aims at gathering nature-based solutions (NBS) relevant to reduce hydro-geological risks in mountain landscapes. The platform can be accessed directly through a web portal. It is based on an Open Source CMS website, including a filter to store documents and a map server to bring ergonomic and powerful access.

To design the platform, an in-depth review of 11 existing platforms has been performed.  Furthermore, a list of metadata has been proposed to structure the information. These metadata have provided the baseline for database. The PHUSICOS platform currently references 176 NBS cases and 83 documents of interest (review articles, assessment papers…). It is continuously enriched through the contribution of NBS community.

For that, a questionnaire based on relevant data, necessary for the definition and identification of the NBS (metadata, to be used for searching the NBSs within the platform) has been defined to enter new entries. A preliminary analysis of the cases has been realized. To characterize and analyse the current 152 solutions, we have worked on the following four categories: The nature of impacted ecosystems, The hazard(s) concerned, The other challenges treated by the NBS, The type of exposed assets.

The platform also proposes a qualitative assessment of the NBSs collected according to 15 criteria related with five ambits: disaster risk reduction, technical and economical feasibility, environment, society, and local economy. The criteria level is sufficiently general to be analysed for the entire PHUSICOS platform NBSs whatever the type of work, the realized approaches, the problematic or the spatial or temporal scale.

The structure of the platform and a first analysis of the qualitative NBS assessment are presented in this work.

How to cite: Bernardie, S., Baills, A., and Garçin, M.: PHUSICOS platform, dedicated to Nature-Based Solutions for Risk Reduction and Environmental Issues in Hilly and Mountainous Lands : presentation and qualitative NBS assessment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7664, 2022.

An adequate strategy for water quality improvement in developing countries must consider the economic scarcity of water, the external factors that affect its quality, and the participation of multisectoral stakeholders in water management decisions. In addition, stronger links to nature can be established through methods inspired from nature to clean the water, such as artificial floating islands (AFI). Restoration of aquatic ecosystems with AFIs occurs as water passes beneath the floating mat and the roots of macrophytes take up metals and nutrients. In this context, we utilized Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) to identify the principal concepts that affect water quality from different perspectives: political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal (PESTEL). We also theoretically explore the use of AFIs combined with different policies, to find the strategy that best adapts the local water situation.

By applying the principles of FCMs, different sources of knowledge can predict the effects of policy, and problems can be identified using the centrality index of the underlying graph theory. Thus, a two-step approach was implemented for our analysis: First, from 40 literature-based PESTEL concepts related to water quality deterioration, local experts in water management were invited to identify the most influential concepts and to include additional ones regarding the local water situation and policies to support the improvement of water quality. Second, workshops were organized, inviting members of communities to discuss the degree of cause-effect influence of the identified concepts, and also to include a water management policy, considering AFIs as one solution.

Three Ecuadorian communities distributed to cover representative ecosystems from the Pacific coast, Andean mountains, and Amazon floodplain were selected for this research, i.e. the community of Mogollón dominated by mangroves land cover, Chilla chico by páramos, and Awayaku by rainforest. According to the FCMs, 21 PESTEL concepts affect water quality in the páramos community and most of them are related to politics (23%) and the environment (23%). Community workshop at the same community identify that the major problem is related to natural water pollutants. For the mangrove community, 23 concepts were identified mainly driven (47%) by environmental concepts, whereas the communities see the major water quality issue in view of human exposure to environmental pollutants. In the case of the rainforest community, 19 concepts were recognized with 40% related to economics, whereas the communities identify the principal concern being the violation of environmental legislation. Regarding the potential implementation of AFIs, the páramos community concludes that AFIs should be implemented and coupled with environmental education programs. Additionally, water-related governmental institutions should be involved during realization. The mangrove community shows interest in AFIs, when combined with payment for ecosystem services. Finally, the rainforest community do not consider AFIs as a primary solution. Instead they propose the creation of a committee to denounce violations of water quality laws and to improve the educational level of community members. In conclusion, the FCM is a powerful tool to bring together the knowledge of multisectoral stakeholders and to analyse suitable strategies for the local improvement of water quality.

How to cite: Fonseca, K., Correa, A., and Breuer, L.: Using the fuzzy cognitive map approach to promote nature-based solutions as a strategy to improve water quality in Ecuadorian communities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8395, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8395, 2022.

Sustainable river management should consider potential impacts on ecosystem services in decision-making with respect to mitigating future climate impacts. In this respect, there is a clear need to better understand how nature-based solutions (NBS) can benefit specific ecosystem services, in particular within the complex spatial and temporal dynamics that characterize most river catchments. To capture these changes, ecosystem models require spatially explicit data that are often difficult to obtain for model development and validation. Citizen science allows for the participation of trained citizen volunteers in research or regulatory activities, resulting in increased data collection and increased participation of the general public in resource management.

In the present study, we examined the temporal and spatial drivers in nutrient and sediment delivery, carbon storage and sequestration and water yield in a major Italian river catchment and under different NBS scenarios. Information on climate, land use, soil and river conditions, as well as future climate scenarios, were used to explore future (2050) benefits of NBS on local and catchment scales, followed the national and European directives related to water quality (Directive 2000/60/EC) and habitat (Directive 92/43/EEC). We estimate the benefits of individual and combined NBS approaches related to river restoration and catchment reforestation.

How to cite: Di Grazia, F., Galgani, L., Gumiero, B., Troiani, E., and Loiselle, S. A.: Effects of the Nature-Based Solutions on the ecosystem services; an evaluation of the Piave River catchment (Italy) in a 2050 scenario, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8884, 2022.

The ecological concept of the meta population helps evaluate the effectiveness of conservation areas (Soule et al., 1988), and is used as a useful tool for evaluating responses between individuals to artificial stressors such as urbanization, habitat destruction, and fragmentation (Kawecki. 2004). In particular meta population model can help increase the accuracy of population estimation across various spatial scales and explain several interactions populations (Walther et al., 2002; Faborg, 2014). Previous studies have demonstrated that habitat destruction and fragmentation caused by urbanization can affect the viability of species in habitats due to reduced fertility and mobility, but papers on the selection of conservation areas can increase the viability of multi species according to the changing surroundings are insufficient. Therefore, this study analyzed the possibility of multi species surviving in the habitat using a meta population model for conservation area scenarios and analyzed the effect of habitat pattern changes on each population from various perspectives.

In order to analyze the survival probability of multi species in habitats by conservation area scenario, (1) setting the 15 virtual habitat spaces within 160ha, (2) Big & Small conservation scenarios considering habitat area, connection, and connection, (3) collecting and estimation of migration rate, home range, dispersal distance for biological species for analyzing the possibility of extinction by population. Finally, the change in the population of each population during period t was analyzed using the meta population model.

Overall, when the Big Conservation area was applied, the probability of extinction of all species was low, followed by the Big+Connectivity scenario. In addition, the probability of survival was similarly derived in the Small scenario and the Connectivity scenario. However, the preferred conservation scenarios for each classification population group were different depending on the conservation scenario. In particular, birds had a high probability of extinction in the small scenario, while small mammals had a low probability of extinction. Through this study, the effect on the change in the number of multi species according to the conservation area scenario was analyzed, which is expected to be used to evaluate the validity and effectiveness of setting up a conservation area in the future.

How to cite: Kim, E. S., Mo, Y. W., Kim, J. Y., and Lee, D. K.: Analysis of survival probability on multiple species using metapopulation model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9397, 2022.

Agricultural ecosystems provide essential services mainly through food, feed, fiber and consequently income but they also contribute cultural, supporting and regulating services. In turn, farming can adversely affect ecosystem services, especially those from natural ecosystems, if farming practices are unsustainable.

Recently, a Sustainable Agriculture Matrix (SAM; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.08.015) of indicators across environmental, economic, and social dimensions has been developed by an international research team to coherently quantify the sustainability of countries’ farming systems globally. The focus was on indicators that can be tracked over time and relate to performance to facilitate analyzes of synergies and trade-offs. At present, this indicator system is being co-evaluated with stakeholders in ten countries within an international consortium including Austria, to elicit stakeholders’ appraisal of the framework’s applicability in their specific geographical and socioeconomic context and eventually co-design a revised matrix based on stakeholders’ requirements.

A first workshop has shown that most indicators from the environmental dimension are useful for stakeholders in the Austrian context, but some need further refinements. Biodiversity, for example, is only considered via land cover change whereas threats to (agro-)biodiversity in Austria and the EU foremost occur in-situ. The economic dimension is ranking second in its usefulness for Austrian stakeholders with few indicators such as food loss being of little relevance. The indicators presently included in the social dimension are least relevant as they cover aspects such as land rights, undernourishment, and rural poverty, which do not pose major issues in Austria and more broadly the EU.

General concerns of stakeholders are the directionality of indicator ratings and their scope which is in part considered too narrow. E.g., high government expenditure for agriculture is considered positive in the matrix regardless of its purpose and may cause dependencies. Human nutrition is only included via undernourishment and soil nutrient status solely as surplus, whereas in both cases also the other extreme may be adverse. Accordingly, a bell-shaped indicator and rating would be favored in such cases. A general requirement was expressed for an additional context dimension. Governance arrangements and the overall socioeconomic situation are so far deliberately not included due to the focus on performance in the existing SAM. Yet, indicators describing such framework conditions can be essential to interpret synergies and trade-offs and the effectiveness of policy measures aiming at achieving SDGs. Beyond the evaluation of existing indicators, the stakeholder process yielded comprehensive suggestions for additional indicators, covering biodiversity, research and education, self-sufficiency, as well as various aspects of resilience and stability. Overall, the co-evaluation with stakeholders highlights that only few globally defined indicators are readily applicable in a regional context where consideration of local conditions and specifics is vital.

The proposed revisions are now being matched with available data across geographic scales to revise the matrix and perform further analyses on trade-offs and synergies. This will also include further context information to facilitate the evaluation of policies, ultimately allowing for improved policy-making to attain agricultural sustainability. Results will be further co-evaluated iteratively with stakeholders to eventually produce a globally applicable indicator system.

How to cite: Folberth, C., Sinabell, F., Schinko, T., and Hanger-Kopp, S.: Co-evaluating and -designing a Sustainable Agriculture Matrix for Austria in an international context, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9474, 2022.

Research dealing with three-dimensional structural data of forests or vegetation is increasing. LiDAR-based research to detect biodiversity (LaRue et al. 2019) is growing, through using structural data such as analyzing heterogeneity, distribution, and height in forest structures (Matsuo et al. 2021) or identifying rugosity (Gough et al. 2020). For example, the technology to detect canopy structures is linked with the GEDI technology, leading to structural diversity mapping on a wide scale and further to β-diversity. (Schneider et al. 2020) Meanwhile, most connectivity studies so far have been conducted on two-dimensional surfaces, and resistance value-based studies on species data, topography and vegetation structure, and habitat quality have been performed. In this study, we try to detect changes in the space distribution pattern of species due to anthropogenic intervention through lidar-based 3D structural data. Through structural heterogeneity, the connectivity at the landscape level is analyzed, and for this purpose, it can be compared with the traditional diversity evaluation method through a verification process based on species data. By detecting the impact on species in advance in the impact assessment stage, this study intends to present a methodology that can function as a forestry and conservation decision-making support tool in combination with ICT-based monitoring technology.

How to cite: Kim, J. Y., Lee, D. K., and Kim, E. S.: Detection of Habitat Heterogeneity Changes Using Laser Scanning Data Targeting Birds, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9476, 2022.

Fire regimes form an integral part of terrestrial biomes in the Mediterranean region as they provide essential disturbances which change the structure and function of plants that favour Mediterranean type climates. Fire is inextricably linked to such ecosystems and cannot be excluded from them. However, the intensification of human activities in Greece, coupled with increasingly unpredictable wildfires has created huge imbalances and jeopardised the ecological integrity of ecosystems. Expansions into the wildland urban interface, rural abandonment, and the focus on fire suppression are increasing the vulnerability and flammability of the Greek environment. The duality of fire is delicate, both at local and national level, catastrophic wildfires singe deeply on landscapes and economies, social burns can take just as long to heal. In Greece, this is further exacerbated by the burgeoning socio-economic and political complexities that have catalysed the current ineffective and unsustainable fire management strategies. Damages from wildfires affect ecosystem services which can lead to a reduction in human wellbeing. Understanding the interactions between ecosystems and humans through environmental valuation is key to implementing effective policy. This study uses economic valuation methods in the form of a choice experiment to elicit public preference for a wildfire management policy in Crete. A survey was deployed around the island, with respondents asked about their preferences between different management strategies. The policies outlined in the survey are made up of the following attributes: risk of fire, agricultural production, landscape quality and post-wildfire damage mitigation. Results from this study indicate a positive preference by the public for a new proposed policy. The findings from this study can be used for decision making in Crete and other similar southern European environments by providing metrics for appropriate wildfire management.

How to cite: Misal, H., Kountouris, I., Voulgarakis, A., and Rovithakis, A.: Eliciting public preferences for wildfire management policies in Crete, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9542, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9542, 2022.

The concept of ecosystem services (ES), as a set of components of the natural capital that provide products and services directed to humans, was born around the middle of the last century, reaching a more systematic definition in the early 2000s with the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA, 2005). This issue is implicitly linked to popular research topics, such as climate change,  population well-being, fight against hunger in the world and has undergone a significant increasing interest from scientific research since the SDGs subscription, defined in the 2030 Agenda.

With the thrust of the investigation into this new branch, various tools have been created aimed at dealing with ecosystem services, not only from a qualitative point of view but in quantitative terms. The present work aims to analyze the applicability of a specific SE quantification software for vegetation, based both on the use of meteorological data and on the acquisition of field data and capable of returning outputs relating to the main components: environment (air quality), soil (use and cover) and water (quality and quantity of water runoff, with a focus on vegetation hydrology). The combination of this eco-hydrological model with a monetary ES evaluation is also interesting: although the economic model considered is particularly simple and therefore characterized by a non-negligible standard error, it is important to underline the direct and spontaneous association between SE and monetary quantification considered by the software, unlike how at the end of the last century the economic value of nature was still neglected.

Finally, the main results of a ES quantification project in an Italian urban context will be discussed, underlining  the environmental improvement to the surroundings and the social benefits for the population.

How to cite: Busca, F. and Revelli, R.: Ecosystem services, monetary value and social sphere: a specific-vegetation software suite on a urban-scale project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11996, 2022.

Social learning is increasingly used to address environmental challenges including sustainable farming. How sustainable agricultural knowledge is co-produced, shared and used between farmers, scientists and government is important for building capacity and trust for sustainability in stressed socio-ecological communities worldwide. However, such understanding is largely lacking in developing economies. This research presents the findings from analysis of smallholder farmers’ social learning in three agricultural regions in China. Combining an existing social capital framework with questionnaires (Q) and interviews (I) with farmers (Q n=632; I n=30) and officials (Q n=77, I n=64), we demonstrate how farmers access and share farming knowledge through bonding, bridging and linking networks. In two regions, family bonding was the dominant learning pathway while linking networks to access ‘formal knowledge’ from government (or scientists) were limited. However, in the third region, government played a more important role in farmers’ knowledge sharing and acquisition processes. In all regions, learning from researchers was largely absent. Key suggestions about ways to enhance use of multiple forms of knowledge are provided. First, this study highlights the need for a more locally and socially embedded approach to facilitate enhanced farmers’ knowledge exchange and learning, to then build trust and capacity to help better address pressing local environmental challenges. Second, we show how social dynamics research can usefully inform knowledge exchange plans for collaborative, international development science, so that it can be best suited to local contexts, to optimise research impacts, capacity building and avoiding of mismatches. 

How to cite: Zheng, Y., Naylor, L. A., Wang, W., Stanton, A., Oliver, D., Munro, N., Chng, N. R., Waldron, S., and Peng, T.: Social capital in stressed social-ecological systems: understanding social learning in agricultural communities in China to aid environmental policy and practice, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12354, 2022.

The Kigezi highlands, southwestern Uganda, is a mountainous tropical region with a high population density, intense rainfall, alternating wet and dry seasons and high weathering rates. As a result, the region is regularly affected by multiple natural hazards such as landslides, floods, heavy storms, and earthquakes. In addition, deforestation and land use changes are assumed to have an influence on the patterns of natural hazards and their impacts in the region. Landscape characteristics and dynamics controlling the occurrence and the spatio-temporal distribution of natural hazards in the region remain poorly understood. In this study, citizen science has been employed to document and understand the spatial and temporal occurrence of natural hazards that affect the Kigezi highlands in relation to the multi-decadal landscape change of the region. We present the methodological research framework involving three categories of participatory citizen scientists. First, a network of 15 geo-observers (i.e., citizens of local communities distributed across representative landscapes of the study area) was established in December 2019. The geo-observers were trained at using smartphones to collect information (processes and impacts) on eight different natural hazards occurring across their parishes. In a second phase, eight river watchers were selected at watershed level to monitor the stream flow characteristics. These watchers record stream water levels once daily and make flood observations. In both categories, validation and quality checks are done on the collected data for further analysis. Combining with high resolution rainfall monitoring using rain gauges installed in the watersheds, the data are expected to characterize catchment response to flash floods. Lastly, to reconstruct the historical landscape change and natural hazards occurrences in the region, 96 elderly citizens (>70 years of age) were engaged through interviews and focus group discussions to give an account of the evolution of their landscape over the past 60 years. We constructed a historical timeline for the region to complement the participatory mapping and in-depth interviews with the elderly citizens. During the first 24 months of the project, 240 natural hazard events with accurate timing information have been reported by the geo-observers. Conversion from natural tree species to exotic species, increased cultivation of hillslopes, road construction and abandonment of terraces and fallowing practices have accelerated natural hazards especially flash floods and landslides in the region. Complementing with the region’s historical photos of 1954 and satellite images, major landscape dynamics have been detected. The ongoing data collection involving detailed ground-based observations with citizens shows a promising trend in the generation of new knowledge about natural hazards in the region.

How to cite: Kanyiginya, V., Twongyirwe, R., Kagoro, G., Mubiru, D., Kervyn, M., and Dewitte, O.: Understanding natural hazards in a changing landscape: A citizen science approach in Kigezi highlands, southwestern Uganda, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2024, 2022.

Human life in cities is already affected by climate change. The effects will become even more pronounced in the coming years and decades. Next-generation of city climate services is necessary for adapting infrastructures and the management of services of cities to climate change. These services are based on advanced weather forecast models and the access to diverse data. It is essential to keep in mind that each citizen is a unique individual with their own peculiarities, preferences, and behaviors. The base for our approach is the individual specific exposure, which considers that people perceive the same conditions differently in terms of their well-being. Individual specific exposure can be defined as the sum of all environmental conditions that affect humans during a given period of time, in a specific location, and in a specific context. Thereby, measurable abiotic parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, pollution and noise are used to characterize the environmental conditions. Additional information regarding green spaces, trees, parks, kinds of streets and buildings, as well as available infrastructures are included in the context. The recording and forecasting of environmental parameters while taking into account the context, as well as the presentation of this information in easy-to-understand and easy-to-use maps, are critical for influencing human behavior and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation measures.

We will adopt this approach within the frame of the recently started, EU-funded CityCLIM project. We aim to develop and implement approaches which will explore the potential of citizen science in terms of current and historical data collecting, data quality assessment and evaluation of data products.  In addition, our approach will also provide strategies for individual climate data use, and the derivation and evaluation of climate change adaptation actions in cities.

In a first step we need to define and to characterize the different potential stakeholder groups involved in citizen science data collection. Citizen science offers approaches that consider citizens as both  organized target groups (e.g., engaged companies, schools) and individual persons (e.g. hobby scientists). An important point to be investigated is the motivation of citizen science stakehoder groups to sustainably collect data and make it available to science and reward them accordingly. For that purpose, strategic tools, such as value proposition canvas analysis, will be applied to taylor the science-to-business and the science-to-customer communications and offers in terms of the individual needs.

How to cite: Dietrich, P., Ködel, U., Schütze, S., Schmidt, F., Schütze, F., Bonn, A., Herrmann, T., and Schütze, C.: Possible Contributions of Citizen Science in the Development of the Next Generation of City Climate Services, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2929, 2022.

Picture Pile is a flexible web-based and mobile application for ingesting imagery from satellites, orthophotos, unmanned aerial vehicles and/or geotagged photographs for rapid classification by volunteers. Since 2014, there have been 16 different crowdsourcing campaigns run with Picture Pile, which has involved more than 4000 volunteers who have classified around 11.5 million images. Picture Pile is based on a simple mechanic in which users view an image and then answer a question, e.g., do you see oil palm, with a simple yes, no or maybe answer by swiping the image to the right, left or downwards, respectively. More recently, Picture Pile has been modified to classify data into categories (e.g., crop types) as well as continuous variables (e.g., degree of wealth) so that additional types of data can be collected.

The Picture Pile campaigns have covered a range of domains from classification of deforestation to building damage to different types of land cover, with crop type identification as the latest ongoing campaign through the Earth Challenge network. Hence, Picture Pile can be used for many different types of applications that need image classifications, e.g., as reference data for training remote sensing algorithms, validation of remotely sensed products or training data of computer vision algorithms. Picture Pile also has potential for monitoring some of the indicators of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Picture Pile Platform is the next generation of the Picture Pile application, which will allow any user to create their own ‘piles’ of imagery and run their own campaigns using the system. In addition to providing an overview of Picture Pile, including some examples of relevance to SDG monitoring, this presentation will provide an overview of the current status of the Picture Pile Platform along with the data sharing model, the machine learning component and the vision for how the platform will function operationally to aid environmental monitoring.

How to cite: Sturn, T., See, L., Fritz, S., Karanam, S., and McCallum, I.: Extending Rapid Image Classification with the Picture Pile Platform for Citizen Science, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4168, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4168, 2022.

Last year, the Institute for Soil Sciences, Centre for Agricultural Research launched Hungary's first citizen science project with the aim to obtain information on the biological activity of soils using a simple estimation procedure. With the help of social media, the reactions on the call for applications were received from nearly 2000 locations. 

In the Hungarian version of the international Soil your Undies programme, standardized cotton underwear was posted to the participants with a step-by-step tutorial, who buried their underwear for about 60 days, from mid of May until July in 2021, at a depth of about 20-25 cm. After the excavation, the participants took one digital image of the underwear and recorded the geographical coordinates, which were  uploaded to a GoogleForms interface together with several basic information related to the location and the user (type of cultivation, demographic data etc.).

By analysing digital photos of the excavated undies made by volunteers, we obtained information on the level to which cotton material had decomposed in certain areas and under different types of cultivation. Around 40% of the participants buried the underwear in garden, 21% in grassland, 15% in orchard, 12% in arable land, 5% in vineyard and 4% in forest (for 3% no landuse data was provided).

The images were first processed using Fococlipping and Photoroom softwares for background removing and then percentage of cotton material remaining was estimated based on the pixels by using R Studio ‘raster package’.

The countrywide collected biological activity data from nearly 1200 sites were statistically evaluated by spatially aggregating the data both for physiographical and administrative units. The results have been published on various platforms (Facebook, Instagram, specific web site etc.), and a feedback is also given directly to the volunteers.

According to the experiments the first citizen science programme proved to be successful. 

Acknowledgment: Our research was supported by the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH; K-131820)

Keywords: citizen science; soil life; soil health; biological activity; soil properties

How to cite: Árvai, M., László, P., Takáts, T., Kovács, Z. A., Takács, K., Mészaros, J., and Pásztor, L.: Life in undies – Preliminary results of a citizen science data collection targeting soil health assessement in Hungary, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5094, 2022.

Citizen science is often heavily dependent on software tools that allow members of the general population to collect, view and submit environmental data to a common database. While several such software platforms exist, these often require expert knowledge to set up and maintain, and server and data hosting costs can become quite costly in the long term, especially if a project is successful in attracting many users and data submissions. In the context of time-limited project funding, these limitations can pose serious obstacles to the long-term sustainability of citizen science projects as well as their ownership by the community.

One the other hand, distributed database systems (such as Qri and Constellation) dispense with the need for a centralised server and instead rely on the devices (smartphone or computer) of the users themselves to store and transmit community-generated data. This new approach leads to the counterintuitive result that distributed systems, contrarily to centralised ones, become more robust and offer better availability and response times as the size of the user pool grows. In addition, since data is stored by users’ own devices, distributed systems offer interesting potential for strengthening communities’ ownership over their own environmental data (data sovereignty). This presentation will discuss the potential of distributed database systems to address the current technological limitations of centralised systems for open data and citizen science-led data collection efforts and will give examples of use cases with currently available distributed database software platforms.

How to cite: Malard-Adam, J., Harms, J., and Medema, W.: Distributed databases for citizen science, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5147, 2022.

During the last decades, countless seismic sensors have been deployed throughout the planet by different countries and institutions. In recent years, it has been possible to manufacture low-cost MEMS accelerometers thanks to nanotechnology and large-scale development. These devices can be easily configured and accurately synchronized by GPS. Customizable microcontrollers like Arduino or RaspBerryPI can be used to develop low-cost seismic stations capable of local data storage and real-time data transfer. Such stations have a sufficient signal quality to be used for complementing conventional seismic networks.

In recent years Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias (INVOLCAN) has developed a proprietary low-cost seismic station to implement the Canary Islands School Seismic Network (Red Sísmica Escolar Canaria - RESECAN) with multiple objectives:

• supporting the teaching of geosciences.
• promoting the scientific vocation.
• strengthening the resilience of the local communities by improving awareness toward volcanism and the associated hazards.
• Densifying the existing seismic networks.

On Sept. 19^th 2021, a volcanic eruption started on the Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma. The eruption was proceeded and accompanied by thousands of earthquakes, many of them felt with intensities up to V MCS. Exploiting the attention drawn by the eruption, INVOLCAN started the deployment of low-cost seismic stations in La Palma in educational centres. In this preliminary phase, we selected five educational centres on the island.

The project's objective is to create and distribute low-cost stations in various educational institutions in La Palma and later on the whole Canary Islands Archipelago, supplementing them with educational material on the topics of seismology and volcanology. Each school will be able to access the data of its station, as well as those collected by other centres, being able to locate some of the recorded earthquakes. The data recorded by RESECAN will also be integrated into the broadband seismic network operated by INVOLCAN (Red Sísmica Canaria, C7). RESECAN will be an instrument of scientific utility capable of contributing effectively to the volcano monitoring of the Canary Islands, reinforcing its resilience with respect to future volcanic emergencies.

How to cite: García-Hernández, R., Barrancos, J., D'Auria, L., Domínguez, V., Montalvo, A., and Pérez, N.: RESECAN: citizen-driven seismology on an active volcano (Cumbre Vieja, La Palma Island, Canaries), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5571, 2022.

Only a few of the increasing number of citizen science projects set out to determine the projects impact on diverse learning outcomes of citizen scientists. However, besides pure completion of project activities and data collection, measurable benefits as individual learning outcomes (ILOs) (Phillips et al. 2014) should reward voluntary work.

Within the citizen science project „TeaTime4Schools“, Austrian students in the range of 13 to 18 years collected data as a group activity in a teacher guided school context; tea bags were buried into soil to investigate litter decomposition. In an online questionnaire a set of selected scales of ILOs (Phillips et al. 2014, Keleman-Finan et al. 2018, Wilde et al. 2009) were applied to test those ILOs of students who participated in TeaTime4Schools. Several indicators (scales for project-related response, interest in science, interest in soil, environmental activism, and self-efficacy) were specifically tailored from these evaluation frameworks to measure four main learning outcomes: interest, motivation, behavior, self-efficacy. In total, 106 valid replies of students were analyzed. In addition, 21 teachers who participated in TeaTime4Schools, answered a separate online questionnaire that directly asked about quality and liking of methods used in the project based on suggested scales about learning tasks of University College for Agricultural and Environmental Education (2015), which were modified for the purpose of this study. Findings of our research will be presented.

How to cite: Wawra, A., Scheuch, M., Stürmer, B., and Sanden, T.: Analysis of individual learning outcomes of students and teachers in the citizen science project TeaTime4Schools, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6970, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6970, 2022.

Already sensitive because of its geology (seismic-tsunamic risk) and its interface between arid and temperate ecosystems, the Mediterranean Basin is being transformed by climate change and major urban pressure on resources and spaces. Lebanon concentrates on a small territory the environmental, climatic, health, social and political crises of the Middle East: shortages and degradation of surface and groundwater quality, air pollution, landscape fragmentation, destruction of ecosystems, erosion of biodiversity, telluric risks and very few mechanisms of information, prevention and protection against these vulnerabilities. Further, Lebanon is sorely lacking in environmental data at sufficient temporal and spatial scales to cover the range of key phenomena and to allow the integration of environmental issues for the country's development. This absence was sadly illustrated during the August 4th, 2020, explosion at the port of Beirut, which hindered the effective management of induced threats to protect the inhabitants. In this degraded context combined with a systemic crisis situation in Lebanon, frugal  innovation is more than an option, it is a necessity. Initiated in 2021 within the framework of the O-LIFE lebanese-french research consortium (www.o-life.org), the « Seismic and air monitoring observatory  for greater Beirut » (SMOAG) project aims at setting up a citizen observatory of the urban health of Beirut by deploying innovative, connected, low-cost, energy-efficient and robust environmental and seismological instruments. Through co-constructed web services and mobile applications with various stakeholders (citizens, NGOs, decision makers and scientists), the SMOAG citizen observatory will contribute to the information and mobilization of Lebanese citizens and managers by sharing the monitoring of key indicators associated with air quality, heat islands and building stability, essential issues for a sustainable Beirut.

The first phase of the project was dedicated to the development of a low-cost environmental sensor enabling pollution and urban weather measurements (particle matters, SO2, CO, O3, N02, solar radiation, wind speed, temperature, humidity, rainfall) and to the development of all the software infrastructure, from data acquisition to the synoptic indicators accessible via web and mobile application, while following the standards of the Sensor Web Enablement and Sensor Observation System of the OGC and to the FAIR principles (Easy to find, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable). A website and Android/IOS applications for the restitution of data and indicators and a dashboard allowing real time access to data have been developed. Environmental and low-cost seismological stations (Raspberry Shake) have been already deployed in Beirut, most of them hosted by Lebanese citizens. These instrumental and open data access efforts were completed by participatory workshops with various stakeholders  to improve the ergonomy of the web and application interfaces and to define roadmap for the implantation of future stations, consistently with  most vulnerable populations identified by NGOs and the current knowledge on the air pollution and heat islands in Beirut.

How to cite: Cornou, C., Drapeau, L., El Bakouny, Y., Lahoud, S., Polikovitch, A., Abdallah, C., Abou Chakra, C., Afif, C., Al Bitar, A., Cartier, S., Fanice, P., Fenianos, J., Guillier, B., Khater, C., and Khoury, G. and the SMOAG Team: Seismic and air monitoring observatory for greater Beirut : a citizen observatory of the "urban health" of Beirut, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7164, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7164, 2022.

Water quality in the rivers and tributaries of the Brantas catchment (about 12.000 km²) is deteriorating due to various reasons, including rapid economic development, insufficient domestic water treatment and waste management, and industrial pollution. Various water quality parameters are at least measured on monthly basis by agencies involved in water resource development and management. However, measurements consistently demonstrate exceedance of the local water quality standards. Recent claims presented by the local Environmental Protection Agency indicate that the water quality is much more affected by the domestic sources compared to the others. In an attempt to examine this, we proposed a citizen science campaign by involving people from seven communities living close to the river, a network organisation that works on water quality monitoring, three government agencies, and students from a local university. Beginning in 2022, we kicked off our campaign by measuring with test strips for nitrate, nitrite, and phosphate on weekly basis at twelve different locations from upstream to downstream of the catchment. In the effort to provide education on water stewardship and empower citizens to participate in water quality management, preliminary results – the test strips, strategies, and challenges - will be shown.

How to cite: Pramana, R., Houser, S., Rini, D., and Ertsen, M.: Citizen science for better water quality management in the Brantas catchment, Indonesia? Preliminary results, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7323, 2022.

Available quality-checked institutional meteorological data is often not measured at locations of particular interest for observing specific small-scale and meso-scale atmospheric processes. Similarly, institutional data can be hard to obtain due to data policy restrictions. On the other hand, a lot of people are highly interested in meteorology, and they frequently deploy meteorological instruments at locations where they live. Such citizen data are often shared through public data repositories and websites with sophisticated visualization routines.  As a result, the networks of citizen meteorological stations are, in numerous areas, denser and more easily accessible than are the institutional meteorological networks.  

Several examples of publicly available citizen meteorological networks, including school networks, are explored – and their application to published high-quality scientific papers is discussed. It is shown that for the data-based analysis of specific atmospheric processes of interest, such as mesoscale convective disturbances and mesoscale atmospheric gravity waves, the best qualitative and quantitative results are often obtained using densely populated citizen networks.  

Finally, a “cheap and easy to do” project of constructing a meteorological station with a variable number of atmospheric sensors is presented. Suggestions on how to use such stations in educational and citizen science activities, and even in real-time warning systems, are given.  

How to cite: Sepic, J., Vranic, J., Aviani, I., Milanovic, D., and Burazer, M.: Citizen science - an invaluable tool for obtaining high-resolution spatial and temporal meteorological data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7916, 2022.

Among the greatest constraints to accurately monitoring and understanding climate and climate change in many locations is limited in situ observing capacity and resolution in these places. Climate behaviours along with dependent environmental and societal processes are frequently highly localized, while observing systems in the region may be separated by hundreds of kilometers and may not adequately represent conditions between them. Similarly, generating climate equity in urban regions can be hindered by an inability to resolve urban heat islands at neighborhood scales. In both cases, higher density observations are necessary for accurate condition monitoring, research, and for the calibration and validation of remote sensing products and predictive models. Coincidentally, urban neighborhoods are heavily populated and thousands of individuals visit remote locations each day for recreational purposes. Many of these individuals are concerned about climate change and are keen to contribute to climate solutions. However, there are several challenges to creating a voluntary citizen science climate observing program that addresses these opportunities. The first is that such a program has the potential for limited uptake if participants are required to volunteer their time or incur a significant cost to participate. The second is that researchers and decision-makers may be reluctant to use the collected data owing to concern over observer bias. This paper describes the on-going development and implementation by 2DegreesC.org of a technology-driven citizen science approach in which participants are equipped with low-cost automated sensors that systematically sample and communicate scientifically valid climate observations while they focus on other activities (e.g., recreation, gardening, fitness). Observations are acquired by a cloud-based system that quality controls, anonymizes, and makes them openly available. Simultaneously, individuals of all backgrounds who share a love of the outdoors become engaged in the scientific process via data-driven communication, research, and educational interactions. Because costs and training are minimized as barriers to participation, data collection is opportunistic, and the technology can be used almost anywhere, this approach is dynamically scalable with the potential for millions of participants to collect billions of new, accurate observations that integrate with and enhance existing observational network capacity.

How to cite: Shein, K.: Linking citizen scientists with technology to reduce climate data gaps, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10634, 2022.

The 2019-2020 bushfire season (the Black Summer) in Australia was unprecedented in its breadth and severity as well as the disrupted resources and time dedicated to studying it.  Right after one of the most extreme fire seasons on record had hit Australia, a once-in-a-century global pandemic, COVID-19, occurred. This pandemic caused world-wide lockdowns throughout 2020 and 2021 that prevented travel and field work, thus hindering researchers from assessing damage done by the Black Summer bushfires. Early assessments show that the bushfires on Kangaroo Island, South Australia caused declines in soil nutrients and ground coverage up to 10 months post-fire, indicating higher risk of soil erosion and fire-induced land degradation at this location. In parallel to the direct impacts the Black Summer bushfires had on native vegetation and soil, the New South Wales Nature Conservation Council observed a noticeable increase in demand for fire management workshops in 2020. What was observed of fires and post-fire outcomes on soil and vegetation from the 2019-2020 bushfire season that drove so many citizens into action? In collaboration with the New South Wales Nature Conservation Council and Rural Fire Service through the Hotspots Fire Project, we will be surveying and interviewing landowners across New South Wales to collect their observations and insights regarding the Black Summer. By engaging landowners, this project aims to answer the following: within New South Wales, Australia, what impact did the 2019-2020 fire season have on a) soil health and native vegetation and b) human behaviours and perceptions of fire in the Australian landscape. The quantity of insights gained from NSW citizens will provide a broad assessment of fire impacts across multiple soil and ecosystem types, providing knowledge of the impacts of severe fires, such as those that occurred during the Black Summer, to the scientific community. Furthermore, with knowledge gained from reflections from citizens, the Hotspots Fire Project will be better able to train and support workshop participants, while expanding the coverage of workshops to improve support of landowners across the state. Data regarding fire impacts on soil, ecosystems, and communities has been collected by unknowing citizen scientists all across New South Wales, and to gain access to that data, we need only ask.

How to cite: Ondik, M., Ooi, M., and Muñoz-Rojas, M.: Insights from landowners on Australia's Black Summer bushfires: impacts on soil and vegetation, perceptions, and behaviours, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10776, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10776, 2022.

High air pollution concentration levels and increased urban heat island intensity, are amongst the most critical contemporary urban health concerns. This is the reason why various municipalities are starting to invest in extensive direct air quality and microclimate sensing networks. Through the study of these datasets it has become evident that the understanding of inter-urban environmental gradients is imperative to effectively introduce urban land-use strategies to improve the environmental conditions in the neighborhoods that suffer the most, and develop city-scale urban planning solutions for a better urban health.  However, given economic limitations or divergent political views, extensive direct sensing environmental networks have yet not been implemented in most cities. While the validity of citizen science environmental datasets is often questioned given that they rely on low-cost sensing technologies and fail to incorporate sensor calibration protocols, they can offer an alternative to municipal sensing networks if the necessary Quality Assurance / Quality Control (QA/QC) protocols are put in place.

This research has focused on the development of a QA/QC protocol for the study of urban environmental data collected by the citizen science PurpleAir initiative implemented in the Bay Area and the city of Los Angeles where over 700 purple air stations have been implemented in the last years. Following the QA/QC process the PurpleAir data was studied in combination with remote sensing datasets on land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index, and geospatial datasets on socio-demographic and urban fabric parameters. Through a footprint-based study, and for all PurpleAir station locations, the featured variables and the buffer sizes with higher correlations have been identified to compute the inter-urban environmental gradient predictions making use of 3 supervised machine learning models: - Regression Tree Ensemble, Support Vector Machine, and a Gaussian Process Regression.

How to cite: Llaguno-Munitxa, M., Bou-Zeid, E., Rueda, P., and Shu, X.: Citizen-science urban environmental monitoring for the development of an inter-urban environmental prediction model for the city of Los Angeles, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11765, 2022.

Routine monitoring of soil chemistry is needed for effective crop management since a poor understanding of nutrient levels affects crop yields and ultimately farmers’ livelihoods.¹ In low- and middle-income countries soil sampling is usually limited, due to required access to analytical services and high costs of portable sampling equipment.² We are developing portable and low-cost sampling and analysis tools which would enable farmers to test their own land and make informed decisions around the need for fertilizers. In this study we aimed to understand attitudes of key stakeholders towards this technology and towards collecting the data gathered on public databases which could inform decisions at government level to better manage agriculture across a country.

In Kenya, we surveyed 549 stakeholders from Murang’a and Kiambu counties, 77% men and 23% women. 17.2% of these respondent smallholder farmers were youthful farmers aged 18-35 years with 81.9% male and 18.1% female-headed farming enterprises. The survey covered current knowledge of soil nutrition, existing soil management practices, desire to sample soil in the future, attitudes towards our developed prototypes, motivation towards democratization of soil data, and willingness to pay for the technology. In Vietnam a smaller mixed methods online survey was distributed via national farming unions to 27 stakeholders, in particular engaging younger farmers with an interest in technology and innovation.

Within the Kenya cohort, only 1.5% of farmers currently test for nutrients and pH. Reasons given for not testing included a lack of knowledge about soil testing (35%), distance to testing centers (34%) and high costs (16%). However, 97% of respondents were interested in soil sampling at least once a year, particularly monitoring nitrates and phosphates. Nearly all participants, 94-99% among the males/females/youths found cost of repeated analysis of soil samples costing around USD 11-12 as affordable for their business. Regarding sharing the collecting data, 88% believed this would be beneficial, for example citing that data shared with intervention agencies and agricultural officers could help them receive relevant advice.

In Vietnam, 87% of famers did not have their soil nutrient levels tested with 62% saying they did not know how and 28% indicating prohibitive costs. Most currently relied on local knowledge and observations to improve their soil quality. 87% thought that the system we were proposing was affordable with only 6% saying they would not be interested in trialing this new technology. Regarding the soil data, respondents felt that it should be open access and available to everyone.

Our surveys confirmed the need and perceived benefit for our proposed simple-to-operate and cost-effective workflow, which would enable farmers to test soil chemistry themselves on their own land. Farmers were also found to be motivated towards sharing their soil data to get advice from government agencies. The survey results will inform our further development of low-cost, portable analytical tools for simple on-site measurements of nutrient levels within soil.

1. Dimkpa, C., et al., Sustainable Agriculture Reviews, 2017, 25, 1-43.

2. Zingore, S., et al., Better Crops, 2015, 99 (1), 24-26.

How to cite: Richardson, S., Kamau, P., Parsons, K. J., Halstead, F., Ndirangu, I., Minh, V. Q., Tri, V. P. D., Le, H., Pamme, N., and Gitaka, J.: Attitudes towards a cafetiere-style filter system and paper-based analysis pad for soil nutrition surveillance in-situ: evidence from Kenya and Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11797, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11797, 2022.

Keywords: preconcentration, heavy metal, cafetiere, citizen science, paper-based microfluidics

Heavy-metal analysis of water samples using microfluidics paper-based analytical devices (µPAD) with colourimetric readout is of great interest due to its simplicity, affordability and potential for Citizen Science-based data collection [1]. However, this approach is limited by the relatively poor sensitivity of the colourimetric substrates, typically achieving detection within the mg L^-1 range, whereas heavy-metals exist in the environment at <μg L^-1 quantities   [2]. Preconcentration is commonly used when analyte concentration is below the analytical range, but this typically requires laboratory equipment and expert users [3]. Here, we are developing a simple method for pre-concentration of heavy metals, to be integrated with a µPAD workflow that would allow Citizen Scientists to carry out pre-concentration as well as readout on-site.

The filter mesh from an off-the-shelf cafetière (350 mL) was replaced with a custom-made bead carrier basket, laser cut in PMMA sheet featuring >500 evenly spread 100 µm diameter holes. This allowed the water sample to pass through the basket and mix efficiently with the 2.6 g ion-exchange resin beads housed within (Lewatit^® TP207, Ambersep^® M4195, Lewatit^® MonoPlus SP 112). An aqueous Ni²⁺ sample (0.3 mg L^-1, 300 mL) was placed in the cafetiere and the basket containing ion exchange material was moved up and down for 5 min to allow Ni²⁺ adsorption onto the resin. Initial investigations into elution with a safe, non-toxic eluent focused on using NaCl (5 M). These were carried out by placing the elution solution into a shallow dish and into which the the resin containing carrier basket was submerging. UV/vis spectroscopy via a colourimetric reaction with nioxime was used to monitor Ni²⁺ absorption and elution.

After 5 min of mixing it was found that Lewatit^® TP207 and Ambersep^® M4195 resins adsorbed up to 90% of the Ni²⁺ ions present in solution and the Lewatit^® MonoPlus SP 112 adsorbed up to 60%. However, the Lewatit^® MonoPlus SP 112 resin performed better for elution with NaCl. Initial studies showed up to 30% of the Ni²⁺ was eluted within only 1 min of mixing with 10 mL 5 M NaCl.

Using a cafetière as pre-concentration vessel coupled with non-hazardous reagents in the pre-concentration process allows involvement of citizen scientists in more advanced environmental monitoring activities that cannot be achieved with a simple paper-based sensor alone. Future work will investigate the user-friendliness of the design by trialling the system with volunteers and will aim to further improve the trapping and elution efficiencies.

References:

• Almeida, M., et al., Talanta, 2018, 177, 176-190.
• Lace, A., J. Cleary, Chemosens., 2021. 9, 60.
• Alahmad, W., et al.. Biosens. Bioelectron., 2021. 194, 113574.

How to cite: Sari, M., Richardson, S., Mayes, W., Lorch, M., and Pamme, N.: Method development for on-site freshwater analysis with pre-concentration of nickel via ion-exchange resins embedded in a cafetière system and paper-based analytical devices for readout, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11892, 2022.

Hurtigruten Expeditions, a member of the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO) and the Association of Arctic Expedition Cruise Operators (AECO) has been visiting the fragile polar environments for two decades, witnessing the effects of climate change. Tourism and the number of ships in the polar regions has grown significantly. As a stakeholder aware of the need for long-term protection of these regions, we promote safe and environmentally responsible operations, invest in the understanding and conservation of the areas we visit, and focus on the enrichment of our guests.

For the last couple of years, we have supported the scientific community by transporting researchers and their equipment to and from their study areas in polar regions and we have established collaborations with numerous scientific institutions. In parallel we developed our science program with the goal of educating our guests about the natural environments they are in, as well as to further support the scientific community by providing our ships as platforms of opportunity for spatial and temporal data collection. Participation in Citizen Science programs that complement our lecture program provides an additional education opportunity for guests to better understand the challenges the visited environment faces while contributing to filling scientific knowledge gaps in remote areas and providing data for evidence-based decision making.

We aim to continue working alongside the scientific community and developing partnerships. We believe that scientific research and monitoring in the Arctic and Antarctic can hugely benefit from the reoccurring presence of our vessels in these areas, as shown by the many projects we have supported so far. In addition, our partnership with the Polar Citizen Science Collective, a charity that facilitates interaction between scientists running Citizen Science projects and expedition tour operators, will allow the development of programs on an industry level, rather than just an operator level, increasing the availability and choice of platforms of opportunity for the scientific community.

How to cite: Meraldi, V., Morgan, T., Lynnes, A., and Grams, Y.: Collection of valuable polar data and increase in nature awareness among travellers by using Expedition Cruise Ships as platforms of opportunity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12972, 2022.

Heavy rainfall, floods and debris flow on the Rimac river watershed are recurring events that impact Peruvian people in vulnerable situations.There are few historical records, in terms of hydrometeorological variables, with sufficient temporal and spatial accuracy. As a result, Early Warning Systems (EWS) efficiency, dealing with these hazards, is critically limited.

In order to tackle this challenge, among other objectives, the Participatory Monitoring Network (Red de Monitoreo Participativo or Red MoP, in spanish) was formed: an alternative monitoring system supported by voluntary community collaboration of local population under a citizen science approach. This network collects and communicates data captured with standardized manual rain gauges (< 3USD). So far, it covers districts in the east metropolitan area of the capital city of Lima, on dense peri-urban areas, districts on the upper Rimac watershed on rural towns, and expanding to other upper watersheds as well.

Initially led by Practical Action as part of the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance, it is now also supported by SENAMHI (National Meteorological and Hydrological Service) and INICTEL-UNI (National Telecommunications Research and Training Institute), as an activity of the National EWS Network (RNAT).

For the 2019-2022 rainfall seasons, the network has been gathering data and information from around 80 volunteers located throughout the Rimac and Chillon river watersheds (community members, local governments officers, among others): precipitation, other meteorological variables, and information regarding the occurrence of events such as floods and debris flow (locally known as huaycos). SENAMHI has provided a focalized 24h forecast for the area covered by the volunteers, experimentally combines official stations data with the network’s for spatial analysis of rainfall, and, with researchers from the University of Bristol, analyses potential uses of events gathered through this network. In order to facilitate and automatize certain processes, INICTEL-UNI developed a web-platform and a mobile application that is being piloted.

We present an analysis of events and trends gathered through this initiative (such as a debris flow occurred in 2019). Specifically, hotspots and potential uses of this sort of refined spatialized rainfall information in the dry & tropical Andes. As well, we present a qualitative analysis of volunteers’ expectations and perceptions. Finally, we also present a meteorological explanation of selected events, supporting the importance of measuring localized precipitation during the occurrence of extreme events in similar complex, physical and social contexts.

How to cite: Arestegui, M., Ordoñez, M., Cisneros, A., Madueño, G., Almeida, C., Aliaga, V., Quispe, N., Millán, C., Lavado, W., Huaman, S., and Phillips, J.: Participatory rainfall monitoring: strengthening hydrometeorological risk management and community resilience in Peru, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13115, 2022.

Water extraction in Bengaluru, India's fastest expanding metropolis, entirely depends on its ~500000 wells in a crystalline rock aquifer, of which an unknown number has been abandoned and the level of others has sunk to depths of 450 meters below surface. Recent research has highlighted the spatial heterogeneity and questioned the reliability of water level data in these settings. To fill existing knowledge gaps on the likely over-extraction of groundwater as a vital resource we used a socio-hydrogeological approach of front-lining local hydrogeologists to collect primary data on the spatio-temporal evolution of well depths across the city. Our data show that over the past 60 years borewell depth has increased significantly while water yields have remained unchanged, indicating that digging deeper wells is unsustainable. Using camera inspections of 56 wells in a 2.1km² catchment of industrial land use in Electronic City of Bengaluru, we noted that water levels in the wells are largely determined by rock fractures, not by well depth. Our data show that increased borewell depths is a good signal of declining water levels in Bengaluru’s aquifers. Analysis of δ¹⁸O and δ²H signatures of groundwater samples across all depths followed the local meteoric water line indicating recent recharge, implying that drilling deeper only increased the borehole volume and did not tap into newer water sources.

How to cite: Kulkarni, T., Gassmann, M., Kulkarni, C., Khed, V., and Buerkert, A.: Assessing the groundwater sustainability of Bengaluru megacity, India, through the lens of socio-hydrogeology, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2135, 2022.

Coastal Mediterranean lagoons are very often groundwater-dependent hydrosystems, however their hydrogeological functioning is poorly known, damaging their management. Socio-hydrogeology allows, in an inter-and transdisciplinary way to clarify the relationships linking human activities and groundwater status. Those interactions within the watershed, combined with consumption patterns of the population, and sanitation defects can generate processes leading to pollutant fluxes with impacts on surface water, groundwater and lagoon water quality. This approach integrates both social and economic components into hydrogeological investigations.

The Biguglia lagoon watershed (Northern Corsica, France) has been chosen as a pilot site. Indeed, significant nitrate content, emerging compounds, and pesticides have already been observed in the lagoon waters, but their origin still needs to be specified, both in terms of source and dispersion modalities.

The aim of this study is to (1) assess the link between groundwater quality and the anthropogenic pressures on the watershed, (2) understand water users’ and the stakeholders ‘perception and knowledge of the watershed and the local territory, (3) identify the origin of pollutions detected in the lagoon’s water.

In this purpose, a field sampling was led in spring 2021, combining several tools useful for the knowledge improvement of the hydrogeological functioning and the tracing of anthropic pollutant fluxes. Investigations with structured interviews was administered to 32 water users and 16 local stakeholders involved in the monitoring assessment, to determine the land use evolution since 1950’s to present and aiming at identifying past and present uses of the water resource over the watershed. At the same time, a multi-tracer water sampling, combining physico-chemical parameters, major ions and trace elements as well as, stable isotopes of the water molecule was carried out on 53 points (lagoon, rivers, canals waters, groundwater), of which 21 samples were also analysed for a set of pesticides (screening of 240 molecules).

Pesticide’s analysis show that the study site is affected by agricultural pollution. Indeed, neonicotinoid insecticides, extensively used worldwide, have been found on the sampling points with significant concentrations. Those pesticides are mainly used in fruit, vegetable and cereal crops. The field survey, the questionnaire and the sampling campaign have allowed to identify and confirm the presence of these cultures on the study site. In the same way, benzotriazoles, perfluorinated acids (PFAs) and DEET (insect repellent) have also been detected. They are related to the consumption habits of the population on the watershed.

Geochemical analysis correlated with the social analysis and the land use analysis permitted to better constraint pollution sources, evidencing two main sources: sanitation defect and agriculture activity.

The socio-hydrogeological approach is essential to improve the knowledge of the Biguglia lagoon hydrosystem. The purpose of this work is to offer a new functional diagram of the area, including the space-time continuum of anthropogenic impacts within the watershed. This new knowledge will help local stakeholders towards the recovery of a good geochemical and ecological status for the lagoon brackish water body of Biguglia.

How to cite: Crayol, E., Huneau, F., Garel, E., Re, V., Mattei, A., Santoni, S., and Pasqualini, V.: Socio-hydrogeological approach to identify contaminant fluxes towards groundwater-dependent hydrosystems, case of the Biguglia lagoon (Corsica, France), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3412, 2022.

Developing green infrastructures (GIs) for rainwater harvesting has prevailed in many arid regions, which requires a new water management framework. This paper focuses on a water policy - water trading scheme – design and analysis for integrated green infrastructures and water resource management in a watershed that consists of multiple urban areas. A multiagent model bringing together urban water management and GIs planning models for multiple water managers with hydrological models is proposed to show 1) what the optimized water trading scheme is, 2) how the scheme would affect watershed socio-hydrologic environments, and 3) what the role of GIs in the scheme is. In the model, the water trading scheme design depends not only on the hydrologic dynamics of watershed caused by GIs and but on the social interactions between watershed and multiple urban managers. The proposed model is applied to the Colorado River Lower Basin, which is one of the USA's aridest regions and is planning water trading. Results indicated that a water-trading scheme effectively allocates limited water resources with a minimized system cost in the study area. Results also show that developing GIs to use rainwater resources might further reduce the cost induced by the water trading scheme. However, it might also exacerbate water resource allocation inequity among water users. These findings can help decision-makers design the associated water policy to support sustainable watershed development in arid regions.

How to cite: Zhang, M. and Chui, T. F. M.: Modeling water trading to support integrated green infrastructure and water resources management in an arid watershed, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3487, 2022.

Shallow groundwater is usually more accessible than surface water in remote and rural areas due to the infrastructure cost to collect and allocate surface water on dispersed communities. However, the absence of a proper hydrogeological characterization of the aquifer system added to the lack of groundwater infrastructure and maintenance, technical capacity, and governance has not allowed the development of sustainable use of local groundwater resources in different territories worldwide.

We propose an interdisciplinary approach to determine the risk of a household experiencing water shortage due to depletion of the aquifer, degradation of the water quality, not access to the water point, or sustainable functionality. Three main parameters were defined: Closeness (determined by geographical parameters and easily computed using GIS), Availability (determined by hydrogeological parameters that can be assessed from a groundwater model), and Sustainability (differentiating between software functionality and hardware functionality (Bonsor, MacDonald, Casey, Carter, & Wilson, 2018), the former analyzed through Multiple Factor Analysis. Each of these three factors range between 0 and 1, and their product provides an index that can be used to map the risk of individual households.

An application case in Kwale County, southeast coast of Kenya, is presented, where community handpumps are the main water supply system. The novelty of the index relies on the combination of groundwater model outputs with household data, which allows the generation of time-dependent risk indexes that can be calculated for several scenarios depending on the data available. In this case, we present three scenarios, one involving the potential malfunctioning of a percentage of the existing handpumps, and two other ones dealing with extreme climate scenarios, all of them designed to test the resilience and applicability of the proposed index and their applicability for decision making.

Acknowledgements: This work was funded by the Centre of Cooperation for Development of the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. We want to thank UPGRO and Gro For Good projects for their support and collaboration in acquiring available data.

References: Bonsor, H., MacDonald, A., Casey, V., Carter, R., & Wilson, P. (2018). The need for a standard approach to assessing the functionality of rural community water supplies. Hydrogeology Journal, 26(2), 367–370. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-017-1711-0

How to cite: Cid Escobar, D., Folch, A., Ferrer, N., and Sanchez-Vila, X.: Combining groundwater numerical modelling and social sciences to assess water access in developing countries rural environments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4065, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4065, 2022.

The Galápagos Archipelago (Ecuador) is traditionally considered a living museum and showcase of evolution. The rich biodiversity and distinctive environment attract thousands of visitors every year. However, this tourist flow exerts continuous pressures on the natural environment, and on water resources in particular, to the detriment of the local population who is faced with the challenges of accessing safe and sustainable drinking resources.

For this reason, over the years numerous projects, especially in the context of international cooperation activities, have tried to assess the impact of anthropogenic activities on the water quality and quantity in the islands. Unfortunately, the lack of coordination among all these projects did not allow to carry out continuous monitoring and, above all, to obtain homogenous and consistent time series of the measured hydrogeochemical parameters.

For this reason, in the framework of a joint technical cooperation project (“Health protection and prevention of anthropic pollution risks” in the Island of Santa Cruz” financed by Veneto Region, Italy; CS2012A19) a comprehensive assessment on water quality data (physico-chemical parameters, major elements, trace elements and coliforms) collected since 1985 in the Santa Cruz Island was performed. Results revealed the need of optimizing monitoring efforts to fill knowledge gaps and to better target decision making processes. All data were therefore standardized, homogenized and collected in an open database, accessible to all water stakeholders involved in water control, management and protection in the island. 

The information gathering activity also revealed the lack of coordination between the stakeholders themselves and the presence overlapping interests towards water resources, which represent an obstacle for coordinated actions targeted to sustainable water resources management in such a fragile environment. 

Therefore, under the guidance of the Santa Cruz Municipality, a Water Committee was established to foster the coordinated action among the water stakeholders in the island. The latter range from national to local authorities (e.g. National Water Secretariat, Ministry of Agriculture, Ecuador Naval Oceanographic Institute, National Park Galapagos, Municipality), research institutes (Charles Darwin Foundation), bottled water companies and Santa Cruz Households. Within the committee, shared procedures for data collection, sample analysis, evaluation and data assessment by an open access geodatabase were agreed collectively and tested in the field. Joint monitoring in the island can optimize the efforts for water quality assessment and protection, and improve accountability and outreach towards civil society and water users. Such a coordinated action can also ensure that international cooperation activities carried out in the island will respond to the real needs of the local population, and results will contribute to the long-term protection of the scarce water resources in the island.

Overall, results of the project revealed the high potential of adopting transdisciplinary approaches in complex, multi-stakeholder, framework typical of small island states.

How to cite: Tringali, C., Rizzi, J., Re, V., Tuci, C., Mancin, M., Mendieta, E., and Marcomini, A.: Insights from a transdisciplinary approach for water quality monitoring and multi-stakeholder management in the island of Santa Cruz, Galápagos (Ecuador), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4383, 2022.

Groundwater resources in African drylands are important sources of freshwater but are under pressure due to population growth and climate change. It is therefore increasingly important that groundwater resources are managed in a sustainable way. Development of IWRM plans are ongoing in (semi-)arid African countries with support from national governments, NGOs and consultancies. This presentation aims to highlight two case studies in which bio-geophysical and socio-economic data were combined to assist in the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) process: 1) catchment-scale Water Infrastructure Assessment (WIA) in Sudan and 2) assessment of pathways towards sustainable groundwater use in African drylands. Per case study lessons learned and recommended approaches are provided.

In IWRM intervention planning for semi-arid regions a local increase in available water resources is sought after, which can be found in the better use of excess runoff. A balance between water demand and water resources on community level is key and a prerequisite for implementing durable and inclusive interventions that last. The IWRM process starts with a strong knowledge base. In practice, however, the development of a good knowledge base is not simple. Challenges arise in collecting, processing, and mapping results. With hydrogeology, a 3D situation is translated to 2D maps. Socio-economic data are often stored based on administrative boundaries and need corrections for hydrological source-area delineation and seasonal and interannual variations. Population density and water demand change over seasons, following crop cycles and livestock migration patterns. Looking at local water availability, rainfall and surface water flows are becoming more variable and less reliable. Therefore, assessment of the rainfall regime and corresponding behaviour and movements of people and livestock is key. For WIAs, yields and usage are often averaged, thus disregarding seasonal changes, even though shallow wells and reservoirs regularly become depleted outside the rainy season. The Sudan case study presents an improved approach for a WIA, that is adaptable and can be applied in semi-arid environments in Africa and elsewhere, in which seasonality and socio-economic dynamics were taken into account.

Both hydrogeologic and socio-economic conditions tend to be quite location-specific. This makes developing a simple blueprint for integrated groundwater management impossible. However, by translating local conditions into regional advice, strategic pathways were developed for the drylands of Africa[1] to support IWRM. The zonal hydrogeological and socio-economic setting determined the main groundwater issues and the potential sustainability strategies. The sustainability pathways describe potential sets of strategies that can be effective in moving towards sustainable groundwater resources development and use. While these pathways provide insight into regional differences within the African drylands, these cannot be used at local scales. Tailor-made approaches are necessary. In these assessments, remote sensing provides opportunities. Gridded datasets of population density are of great value in water demand assessments on a larger scale. Participatory stakeholder processes also provide opportunities, including group interviews for development of community calendars providing useful information on the occurrence and frequency of natural hazards and water demand.

How to cite: Van der Heijden, A., Waterloo, M. J., Gevaert, A. I., and Benedicto van Dalen, D.: Integration of hydrogeology and social sciences in practice, two IWRM case studies with challenges and opportunities from semi-arid Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7114, 2022.

Managing groundwater resources is challenging because they are difficult to monitor. The application of remote sensing methods has improved our capacity to monitor variability in groundwater storage, as is the case for the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and the GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions. While GRACE-based groundwater studies to date have covered many places across the globe, perspectives that link scientific studies to policymaking and practices are still limited. Challenges to applying GRACE data into practice result from their coarse resolution, which limits their utility at the smaller scales at which water management decisions are made. Another reason is that the data and related studies can be difficult to use and understand by policymakers and end-users. However, these challenges offer the GRACE scientific community opportunities to communicate with stakeholders, policymakers, and the public in raising awareness around groundwater sustainability issues. This paper addresses three questions: which GRACE data and GRACE-derived products can be useful for groundwater practices and management; how GRACE-derived groundwater messages can be better communicated with practitioners; and how to better operationalize GRACE-derived products for groundwater practice and management. This paper also aims to provide an agenda for the continued use of GRACE and GRACE-FO for the purpose of sustainable groundwater management. To gain insight into these questions, a policy Delphi survey was conducted to collect opinions of both the scientific and non-scientific communities. We made use of target search and snowballing techniques to identify suitable participants who are experienced groundwater researchers or practitioners, and who are familiar with GRACE. A total of 25 participants from around the world were surveyed (14 scientific and 11 non-scientific), and they provided thoughtful responses. We found that both communities acknowledged the potential of GRACE data and GRACE-derived products for groundwater management, and would be willing to collaborate to develop projects for practical applications. Better communication between researchers and practitioners was recommended as a key for the application of GRACE-derived products into practice. Practitioners noted their high demand for reliable data for their management responsibilities, but are more favorable towards locally observed data. The reliability of GRACE at small scales was an issue, even though some robust downscaling methods have been demonstrated down to local scales. The survey showed a desire for more comparison of GRACE-derived products to local measurements to determine whether GRACE products, e.g. downscaled data, can be useful for informing local decisions. Based on the survey, we proposed an agenda that helps to improve the usefulness of GRACE-derived products for practices. This agenda includes scientific recommendations that help to resolve the resolution and technical barriers for local applications, and professional perspectives that bridge the connection between science and policy, and facilitate communication for groundwater management.

How to cite: Xu, L., Famiglietti, J. S., Ferris, D., Huggins, X., Mohan, C., Sadri, S., Sanyal, P., and Wong, J. S.: From Coarse Resolution to Realistic Resolution: GRACE as a Science Communication and Policymaking Tool for Sustainable Groundwater Management, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10542, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10542, 2022.

The Limpopo river basin (LRB) is water-stressed and highly susceptible to floods and droughts. The impacts of floods and droughts on water availability and quality is increasing as a result of their increase in magnitude and frequency. The LRB encompasses a large diversity of physical and socio-economical characteristics spread across four Southern Africa countries (Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe). This dictates highly heterogeneous physical and human responses, coping mechanisms, and policy frameworks from local to transboundary scales.

Understanding the multidimensional connections that exist between and within flood and drought events and cycles, between various regions across the basin, between physical and social impacts, and between users and decision-makers, is critical to sustainable water resources management and long-term resilience to hydrological extremes.

The Connect4 Water Resilience project has brought together an international multidisciplinary team of hydrologists and social scientists from academia, policy, and practice to investigate the drivers and impacts of floods and droughts, and to promote solutions towards adaptation. In our research we deployed hydrological and geological investigations alongside community and governance interviews and workshops across the LRB to jointly feed in the application of a large-scale transboundary hydrological model of the LRB. Model assessment and future management scenario definition and analysis were implemented collaboratively with stakeholders across the basin, through iterative workshops at local, national, and transboundary scales.

Results so far revealed: (1) the high complementarity of physical (hydrological and sedimentological) and social (community narrative) data to reconstruct spatiotemporal dynamics and impacts of events, which has been crucial to model application in the basin affected by highly fragmented monitoring; (2) the observed increase in floods and droughts magnitude and frequency is not responsible for significant changes in groundwater recharge, suggesting that the general observed groundwater level decline is to be related to increasing abstraction, which in turn amplifies droughts; (3) flood severity and impacts are higher after droughts regardless of rainfall magnitude; (4) mitigation, through anticipatory action and preparation for floods and droughts at policy, user and community level is uneven and inadequately resourced, with generally some forms of preparation to droughts but little for floods; (5) the uptake of forecast and management recommendations from governments is patchy, while extension officers are playing a key role for communication and NGOs for training; (6) local stakeholder expertise and experience brought in during stakeholder workshops were critical to groundwater model conceptualisation, and management scenario definition and analysis; (7) preferred scenarios of management strategies, as collaboratively defined with stakeholders, were highly variable across the LRB countries and sub-regions, including preference for local water management (e.g. temporary flood water storage for subsequent droughts) in upstream upland regions vs large scale strategies (e.g. storage in dams) in downstream floodplain regions; however, hydrological model outputs showed that local/regional strategies have basin-scale (transboundary) impacts emphasizing the importance of transboundary cooperation and management of water resources and extreme events.

Research outcomes are being translated into tailored guidance for policy and practice including feeding in ongoing early warning system development and sustainable water resource management.

How to cite: Comte, J.-C., Artur, L., Bharucha, Z., Chirindja, F., Day, R., Dube, J., Franchi, F., Geris, J., Hussey, S., Makaya, E., Matano, A., Mustafa, S., Nesamvuni, E., Olabode, O., Rohse, M., Taylor, S., Tirivarombo, S., and Van Loon, A.: Adaptation to floods and droughts in (semi) arid transboundary basins: insights, barriers and opportunities drawn from socio-hydrogeological research in the Limpopo river basin, Southern Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11819, 2022.

Drinking water quality is a key component of water security to ensure clean and safe water supplies to achieve the Global SDG6. Yet frequently there are capacity constraints on the adequacy and sustained water quality monitoring programs in LDC contexts, especially in rural areas where resources are more limited and the resident population is more reliant on scattered independent groundwater supplies. In Malawi, knowledge of the importance of water quality has been developing over recent years, necessitating local capacity development for sufficient and sustained water quality monitoring.

International, transdisciplinary, and interdisciplinary research collaboration and capacity-building efforts in rural water quality monitoring can be a vehicle to improve technology development that supports operational monitoring and data reporting in resource-poor settings. However, in cognate fields, similar international partnership models have drawn some criticism of late, because of their alleged tendency to not translate collaboration agreements into demonstrable local capacity gains. We, therefore, link our consideration of these issues specific to our direct input to efforts to create a new water quality testing program in rural southern Malawi in southern Africa in a collaborative research project between the University of Dundee and Fisherman’s Rest, a local NGO in Malawi. Fisherman’s Rest works with rural communities in Malawi, specifically borehole monitoring under the Madzi Alipo program. However, their work lacked the water quality monitoring component, a key element to water security. Using our reflections, we find that the line of critique on international collaborations has some value in terms of thinking about how to advance ‘genuine’ collaboration and capacity-building in water quality monitoring programs as we look to expand our collaboration efforts with Fisherman’s Rest and other stakeholders in rural water quality monitoring in Malawi.

How to cite: Gomo, F., Halliday, S., Chichlowski, W., Chichloska, S., Zaunda, H., and Geddes, A.: Reflections on collaboration and capacity-building for sustainable groundwater quality monitoring in rural Malawi, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12846, 2022.

Atmospheric water management or cloud seeding technologies might be effectively applied to assess the impacts from changing climate on water security and renewable energy use. During said assessments it might be possible to exploit their observations to mitigate the negative impacts from climate change by enhancing the water supply as part of a water security plan, and/or by effectively removing low-level supercooled cloud decks/fogs to facilitate renewable energy use providing added sunshine during typically overcast day-time periods. Cloud seeding technologies are used to positively affect the natural hydrologic cycle, while respecting and avoiding damage to public health, safety and the environment.  This talk summarizes atmospheric water management technologies and their use, how these technologies might be applied as part of a strategy to ensure water security and how their application might provide a potential opportunity for recouping lost energy potential.

How to cite: DeFelice, T.: The role atmospheric water management technologies might play in Nature-based solutions (NbS), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1941, 2022.

The increasingly widespread use of space geodesy has resulted in numerous, high-quality surface deformation data sets. DInSAR, for instance, is a well-established satellite technique for investigating tectonically active and volcanic areas characterized by a wide spatial extent of the inherent deformation. These geodetic data can provide important constraints on the involved fault geometry and on its slip distribution as well as on the type and position of an active magmatic source. For this reason, over last years, many researchers have developed robust and semiautomatic methods for inverting suitable models to infer the source type and geometry characteristics from the retrieved surface deformations.

In this work we will present a new software we have implemented, named easyGeoModels, that can be used by geophysicists but also by less skilled users who are interested in sources modeling to determine ground deformation in both seismo-tectonic and volcanic contexts. This software is characterized by some innovative aspects compared to existing similar tools, such as (i) the presence of an easy-to-use graphic interface that allows the user, even if not particularly expert, to manage the data to be inverted, the input parameters of one or more sources, the choice of the deformation source (s), effective and simple way; (ii) the possibility of selecting the GPS data to be inverted, simply by selecting the area of interest: in this case the software will automatically consider for the inversion only the GPS stations present in the selected area and will download the relative data from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory site; (iii) the generation of output files in Geotiff, KMZ and Shapefile format, which allow a faster and more immediate visualization through GIS tools or Google Earth.

Finally, as applications, we will show some preliminary results obtained through the easyGeoModels software on areas characterized by huge deformation both in a volcanic context, such as that of the Campi Flegrei caldera, and a seismo-tectonic one, as for the case of the Amatrice earthquake (central Italy) which occurred on 24 August 2016.

How to cite: Solaro, G., Buonanno, S., Castaldo, R., De Luca, C., Fusco, A., Manzo, M., Pepe, S., Tizzani, P., Valerio, E., Zeni, G., Atzori, S., and Lanari, R.: EasyGeoModels: a New Tool to Investigate Seismic and Volcanic Deformations Retrieved through Geodetic Data. Software Implementation and Examples on the Campi Flegrei Caldera and the 2016 Amatrice Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2263, 2022.

On the 11th of September of 2021, a seismic sequence began on La Palma (Canary Islands), followed by a rapid and significant ground deformation reaching more than 10 cm in the vertical component of the permanent GNSS station ARID (Aridane) operated by the Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias (INVOLCAN). The pre-eruptive episode lasted only nine days and was characterized by an intense deformation in the western part of the island and intense seismicity with the upward migration of hypocenters. After the onset of the eruption, which occurred on the 19th of September of 2021, the deformation increased a few cm more, reaching a maximum on the 22nd of September and subsequently showing a nearly steady deflation trend in the following months.

We obtained a Sentinel-1 DInSAR dataset along both ascending and descending orbits, starting from the 27th of February of 2021 and the 13th of January of 2021, respectively. We selected the study area at the radial distance of 13 km from the eruption point (Latitude: 28.612; Longitude: -17.866) to realize an inverse model of the geometry of the causative sources of the observed ground deformation. While the ascending orbit that passed on the 18th of September indicated mainly a dike intrusion in the shallow depth, the descending orbit from the 20th of September seemed to indicate a deformation caused by at least two sources: the pre-eruptive intrusion and the nearly-vertical eruptive dike. The deeper source spatially coincides with the location of most of the pre-eruptive volcano-tectonic hypocenters.

Finally, based on the preliminary inverse model of the DInSAR dataset, we applied the geodetic imaging of D’Auria et al., (2015) to retrieve the time-varying spatial distribution of volumetric ground deformation sources. The final results show the kinematics of the upward dike propagation and magma ascent.

References

D’Auria, L., Pepe, S., Castaldo, R., Giudicepietro, F., Macedonio, G., Ricciolino, P., ... & Zinno, I. (2015). Magma injection beneath the urban area of Naples: a new mechanism for the 2012–2013 volcanic unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera. Scientific reports, 5(1), 1-11.

How to cite: Przeor, M., Barrancos, J., Castaldo, R., D’Auria, L., Pepe, A., Pepe, S., Sagiya, T., Solaro, G., and Tizzani, P.: Geodetic imaging of the magma ascent process during the 2021 Cumbre Vieja (La Palma, Canary Islands) eruption, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4876, 2022.

Exploration, production, extraction and transport of fossil fuels in the marine environment are accompanied by an inherent risk to the surrounding ecosystems as a result of the on-going operations or due to technical faults, accidents or geo-hazards. Limited work has been conducted on potential impacts on the Mediterranean marine ecosystem due to the lack of information on organism responses to hydrocarbon pollution. In this study, we used the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modeling software which is designed for policy evaluation and provides assessments of impacts of various stressors on an ecosystem. An existing EwE based Ecospace food-web model of the Israeli Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) was enhanced to include local organism response curves to various levels of contaminants, such as crude oil, in the water and on the sea floor sediments. The goal of this study is to evaluate and quantify the possible ecological impacts of pollution events that might occur due to fossil fuel exploitation related activities. Multiple spatial static and dynamic scenarios, describing various pollution quantities and a range of habitats and locations were constructed. Using the enhanced Ecospace models for assessing the potential impacts of gas exploitation on organism biomass, the spatial and temporal distribution and food-web functioning was tested and evaluated. The results of this study will show a quantitative assessment of the expected ecological impacts that could assist decision makers in developing management and conservation strategies.

How to cite: Lahav, E., Astrahan, P., Ofir, E., Gal, G., and Bookman, R.: Modeling Potential Impacts of Gas Exploitation on the Israeli Marine Ecosystem Using Ecopath with Ecosim, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5431, 2022.

Volcanoes are dynamically active systems in continuous evolution. This behaviour is emphasized by many different processes, e.g., fumarolic activity, earthquakes, volcanic slope instabilities and volcanic climax eruptions. Volcanic edifices experience slope instability as consequence of different solicitations such as i) eruption mechanism and depositional process, ii) tectonic stresses, iii) extreme weather conditions; all these events induce the mobilization of unstable fractured volcanic flanks.

Several methods exist to gather information about slope stability and to map trajectories followed by individual falling rocks in individual slopes. These methods involve direct field observation, laser scanning, terrestrial or aerial photogrammetry. Such information is useful to infer the likely location of future rockfalls, and represent a valuable input for the application of three-dimensional models for rockfall trajectories.

The Ischia island is volcano-tectonic horst that is a part of the Phlegrean Volcanic District, Southern Italy. It covers an area of about 46 km² and it has experienced a remarkable ground uplift events due to a resurgence phenomenon. Slope instability is correlated both with earthquakes events and with volcanism phenomena. Specifically, evidences suggest that rockfalls occurred as an effect of the gravitational instability on the major scarps generated by the rapid resurgence, eased by the widespread rock fracturing.

We present results of an analysis relevant to the most probable individual masses trajectories of rockfall affecting the slopes of Ischia island. We first identified the prospective rockfall sources through an expert-mapping of source area in sample locations and statistical analysis on the whole island. Probabilistic sources are the main input of the three-dimensional rockfalls simulation software STONE.

The software assumes point-like masses falling under the sole action of gravity and the constraints of topography, and it calculates trajectories dominated by ballistic dynamics during falling, bouncing and rolling on the ground. Analysis of high-definition critical sector pictures, achieved by using UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) platform, will allow a detailed localization of source areas and an additional more robust simulations.

The procedure can be viewed as a multiscale analysis and allows besting allocating computational efforts and economic resources, focusing on a more detailed analysis on the slopes identified as the most risky ones during the first, large-scale analysis of the whole area.

How to cite: De Matteo, A., Alvioli, M., Bonfante, A., Buonanno, M., Castaldo, R., and Tizzani, P.: Slope stability monitoring system via three-dimensional simulations of rockfalls in Ischia island, Southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5618, 2022.

Indian air quality monitoring guideline is directly adopted from World Health Organization (1977) guidelines without place-based modification. According to Indian air quality guidelines (2003), the location of monitoring sites should be determined from air quality modeling and previous air quality information. If such information is not available, the use of emission densities, wind data, land-use patterns and population information is recommended for prioritizing areas for air quality monitoring. The mixed land-use distribution over Indian cities and randomly distributed sources pose serious challenges, as Indian cities (unlike in other parts of the world) are characterized by a lack of distinct residential, commercial, and industrial regions, so the concept of “homogeneous emissions” (which have guided site monitoring decisions) simply does not apply. In addition, the decision-making data emission and population information, are either not available or outdated for Indian cities. Unlike the cities in Global North, the Indian urban-scape has distinguished features in terms of land use, source and population distribution which has not been addressed in air quality guidelines.

We have developed an implementable place-based framework to address the above problem of establishing effective new air quality stations in India and other regions with complex land-use patterns. Four Indian million-plus cities were selected for the present study; Lucknow, Pune, Nashik and Kanpur. We broadly classified air quality monitoring objectives into three; monitoring population exposure, measurements for compliance with the national standards and characterization of sources. Each monitoring station over four cities was evaluated and metadata has been created for each station to identify its monitoring objective for each of the stations. We find that present air quality monitoring networks are highly inadequate in characterizing average population exposure throughout each city, as current stations are predominantly located at the site of pedestrian exposure, and are not representative of the city-wide exposure.

Possible new sites for monitoring were identified using night-time light data, satellite-derived PM2.5, existing emission inventories, land-use patterns and other ancillary open-sourced data. Over Lucknow, Pune and Nashik, setting up stations at highly populated areas is recommended to fulfill the knowledge gaps on the average population exposure. Over Kanpur, it was recommended to incorporate stations to measure short-term pollution exposure in traffic and industrial sites. Rapidly developing peri-urban regions were identified using night-time light data and recommendations were provided for setting up monitoring stations in these regions.

How to cite: Roy, A., Nenes, A., and Takahama, S.: The framework for improving air quality monitoring over Indian cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6226, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6226, 2022.

Tenerife (2,034 km²), the largest island of the Canarian archipelago, is characterized by three volcanic rifts NW-SE, NE-SW and N-S oriented, with a central volcanic structure in the middle, Las Cañadas Caldera, hosting Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex. The North-West Rift-Zone (NWRZ) is one of the youngest and most active volcanic systems of the island, where three historical eruptions (Boca Cangrejo in 16^th Century, Arenas Negras in 1706 and Chinyero in 1909) have occurred, whereas the North-East Rift-Zone (NERZ) is more complex than the others due to the existence of Pedro Gil stratovolcano that broke the main NE-SW structure 0.8 Ma ago. The most recent eruptive activity along the NERZ took place during 1704 and 1705 across 13 km of fissural eruption in Siete Fuentes (Arafo-Fasnia). To monitor potential volcanic activity through a multidisciplinary approach, diffuse degassing studies have been carried out since 2000 at the NWRZ (72 km²) and since 2001 at the NERZ (210 km²) in a yearly basis. Long-term variations in the diffuse CO₂ output in the NWRZ have shown a temporal correlation with the onsets of seismic activity at Tenerife, supporting unrest of the volcanic system, as is also suggested by anomalous seismic activity recorded in the studied area during April, 2004 and October, 2016 (Hernández et al., 2017). In-situ measurements of CO₂ efflux from the surface environment were performed according to the accumulation chamber method using a portable non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) sensor. Soil CO₂ efflux values for the 2021 survey ranged between non-detectable values and 104 g·m^-2·d^-1, with an average value of 8 g·m^-2·d^-1 for NWRZ. For NERZ, soil CO₂ efflux values ranged between non-detectable values and 79 g·m²·d^-1, with an average value of 7 g·m^-2·d^-1. The probability plot technique applied to the data allowed to distinguish different geochemical populations. Background population represented 49.2% and 74.0% of the total data for NWRZ and NERZ, respectively, with a mean value (1.7 - 2.0 g·m^-2·d^-1) similar to the background values calculated for other volcanic systems in the Canary Islands with similar soils, vegetation and climate (Hernández et al. 2017). Peak population represented 0.9 and 0.7% for NWRZ and NERZ, respectively and with a mean value of 45 and 57 g·m^-2·d^-1. Soil CO₂ efflux contour maps were constructed to identify spatial-temporal anomalies and to quantify the total CO₂ emission using the sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) interpolation method. Diffuse emission rate of 506 ± 22 t·d^-1 for NWRZ and 1,509 ± 58 t·d^-1 NERZ were obtained. The normalized CO₂ emission value by area was estimated in 7.03 t·d^-1·km^-1 for NWRZ and in 7.2 t·d^-1·km^-1 for NERZ. The monitorization of the diffuse CO₂ emission contributes to detect early warning signals of volcanic unrest, especially in areas where visible degassing is non-existent as in the Tenerife NWRZ and NERZ.

Hernández et al. (2017). Bull Volcanol, 79:30, DOI 10.1007/s00445-017-1109-9.

How to cite: Pitti Pimienta, L., Rodríguez, F., Asensio-Ramos, M., Melián, G., Di Nardo, D., Martín-Lorenzo, A., Alonso, M., García-Hernández, R., Ortega, V., Martínez Van Dorth, D., Cordero, M., Albertos, T., Hernández, P. A., and Pérez, N. M.: Geochemical monitoring of the Tenerife North-East and North West Rift Zones by means of diffuse degassing surveys, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6374, 2022.

Two moderate earthquakes with magnitude ML5.0 happened on 11th of November 2020 near the Mavrovo lake in northwestern Macedonia. The lake is an artificial lake with a dam built between 1947 and filled by 1953. Its maximum length is 10km, width is 5km and the depth is 50m. Given its water volume, it is possible that geological factors causing earthquakes could also affect the hydrobiological characteristics of the flow system surrounding the lake.

A list of 180 earthquakes registered by the local stations with magnitudes equal or greater than ML1.7 was analysed in terms of temporal and spatial distribution around the lake. No specific clustering of events was noticed in the foreshock period from July 2020. In the aftershock period, the most numerous events lasted about a month after the main events. However, there was another period of increased seismicity during March 2021, followed by gradual decrease onwards. The distribution of epicentres was mainly along the terrain of Radika river and a few smaller tributaries to the lake system.

A comparative analysis was done with the dataset collected by the program run at the department of Biology at the Faculty of Natural Sciences, University UKIM in Skopje. Environmental investigations in Europe have shown stress reactions of hydrobionts in respect to water temperature and heavy metal pollution, for example the influence of radioactive radiation. Earthquake-induced seismic changes most often affect the chemical-physical properties of water quality and temperature stratification, i.e., mixing of water masses. In our research, we analyse for the first time the relationship between the seismological activities in the Jul 2020-Nov 2021 period in details and a possible impact to environment thru the population of macrozoobenthos from Mavrovo Lake.

How to cite: Sinadinovski, C. and Smiljkov, S.: Numerical analysis of Seismic and Hydrobiological data around lake Mavrovo in the period Jul.2020-Nov.2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6452, 2022.

Appropriate methods to measure greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes are critical for our ability to detect fluxes, understand regulation, make adequate priorities for climate change mitigation efforts, and verify that these efforts are effective. Ideally, we need reliable, accessible, and affordable measurements at relevant scales. We surveyed present GHG flux measurement methods, identified from an analysis of >11000 scientific publications and a questionnaire to sector professionals and analysed method pros and cons versus needs for novel methodology. While existing methods are well-suited for addressing certain questions, this presentation presents fundamental limitations relative to GHG flux measurement needs for verifiable and transparent action to mitigate many types of emissions. Cost and non-academic accessibility are key aspects, along with fundamental measurement performance. These method limitations contribute to the difficulties in verifying GHG mitigation efforts for transparency and accountability under the Paris agreement. Resolving this mismatch between method capacity and societal needs is urgently needed for effective climate mitigation. This type of methodological mismatch is common but seems to get high priority in other knowledge domains. The obvious need to prioritize development of accurate diagnosis methods for effective treatments in healthcare is one example. This presentation provides guidance regarding the need to prioritize the development of novel GHG flux measurement methods.

How to cite: Bastviken, D., Wilk, J., Duc, N. T., Gålfalk, M., Karlson, M., Neset, T., Opach, T., Enrich Prast, A., and Sundgren, I.: Measuring greenhouse gas fluxes – what methods do we have versus what methods do we need?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6468, 2022.

The oceanic active volcanic island of Tenerife (2,034 km²) is the largest of the Canarian archipelago. There are more than 1,000 galleries (horizontal drillings) in the island, which are used for groundwater exploitation and allow reaching the aquifer at different depths and elevations. This work presents the first extensive study on the temporal variation of dissolved gases in groundwaters from Fuente del Valle and San Fernando galleries (Tenerife, Spain) since April 2016 to June 2020. This investigation is focused on the chemical and isotopic content of several dissolved gas species (CO₂, He, O₂, N₂ and CH₄) present in the groundwaters and its relationship with the seismic activity registered in the island. The results show CO₂ as the major dissolved gas specie in the groundwater from both galleries presenting a mean value of 260 cm³STP·L^-1 and 69 cm³STP·L^-1 for Fuente del Valle and San Fernando, respectively. The average δ¹³C-CO₂ data (-3.9‰ for Fuente del Valle and -6.4‰ for San Fernando) suggest a clear endogenous origin as result of interaction of them with deep-origin fluid. A bubbling gas sample from Fuente del Valle gallery was analysed, obtaining a CO₂ rich gas (87 Vol.%) with a considerable He enrichment (7.3 ppm). The isotopic data of both components in the bubbling gas support the results obtained in the dissolved gases, showing an endogenous component that could be affected by the different activity of the hydrothermal system. During the study period, an important seismic swarm occurred on October 2, 2016, followed by an increase of the seismic activity in and around Tenerife. After this event, important geochemical variations were registered in the dissolved gas species, such as dissolved CO₂ and He content and the CO₂/O₂, He/CO₂, He/N₂ and CH₄/CO₂ ratios. These findings suggest an injection of fluids into the hydrothermal system during October 2016, a fact that evidences the connection between the groundwaters and the hydrothermal system. The present work demonstrates the importance of dissolved gases studies in groundwater for volcanic surveillance.

How to cite: Amonte, C., Pérez, N. M., Melián, G. V., Asensio-Ramos, M., Padrón, E., Hernández, P. A., and Meire Feijoo, A.: Temporal evolution of dissolved gases in groundwater of Tenerife Island, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8458, 2022.

Land surface temperature (LST) is a manifestation of the surface thermal environment (LSTE) and an important driver of physical processes of surface land energy balance at local to global scales. Tenerife is one of the most heterogeneous islands among the Canaries from a climatological and bio-geographical point of view. We study the surface thermal conditions of the volcanic island with remote sensing techniques. In particular, we consider a time series of Landsat 8 (L8) level 2A images for the period 2013 to 2019 to estimate LST from surface reflectance (SR) and brightness Temperature (BT) images. A total of 26 L8 dates were selected based on cloud cover information from metadata (land cloud cover < 10%) to estimate pixel-level LST with an algorithm based on Radiative Transfer Equations (RTE). The algorithm relies on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for estimating emissivity pixel by pixel. We apply the Independent Component Analysis (ICA) that revealed to be a powerful tool for data mining and, in particular, to separate multivariate LST dataset into a finite number of components, which have the maximum relative statistical independence. The ICA allowed separating the land surface temperature time series of Tenerife into 11 components that can be associated with geographic and bioclimatic zones of the island. The first ten components are related to physical factors, the 11th component, on the contrary, presented a more complex pattern resulting possibly from its small amplitude and the combination of various factors into a single component. The signal components recognized with the ICA technique, especially in areas of active volcanism, could be the basis for the space-time monitoring of the endogenous component of the LST due to surface hydrothermal and/or geothermal activity. Results are encouraging, although the 16-day revisit frequency of Landsat reduces the frequency of observation that could be increased by applying techniques of data fusion of medium and coarse spatial resolution images. The use of such systems for automatic processing and analysis of thermal images may in the future be a fundamental tool for the surveillance of the background activity of active and dormant volcanoes worldwide.

How to cite: Stroppiana, D., Przeor, M., D’Auria, L., and Tizzani, P.: Analysis of thermal regimes at Tenerife(Canary Islands) with Independent Component Analysis applied to time series of Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperatures, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8580, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8580, 2022.

Recent advances in IoT and chemical sensors calibration technologies have led to the proposal of Hierarchical air quality monitoring networks. They are indeed complex systems relying on sensing nodes which differs from size, cost, accuracy, technology, maintenance needs while having the potential to empower smart cities and communiities with increased knowledge  on the highly spatiotemporal variance Air Quality phenomenon (see [1]). The AirHeritage project, funded by Urban Innovative Action program have developed and implemented a hierarchical monitoring system which allows for offering real time assessments and model based forecasting services including 7 fixed low cost sensors station, one (mobile and temporary located) regulatory grade analyzer and a citizen science based ultra high resolution AQ mapping tool based on field calibrated mobile analyzers. This work will analyze the preliminary results of the project by focusing on the machine learning driven sensors calibration methodology and citizen science based air quality mapping campaigns. Thirty chemical and particulate matter multisensory devices have been deployed in Portici, a 4Km2 city located 7 km south of Naples which is  affected by significant car traffic. The devices have been  entrusted to local citizens association for implementing 1 preliminary validation campaign (see [2]) and 3 opportunistic 2-months duration monitoring campaigns. Each 6 months, the devices undergoes a minimum 3 weeks colocation period with a regulatory grade analyzer allowing for training and validation dataset building. Multilinear regression sw components are trained to reach ppb level accuracy (MAE <10ug/m^3 for NO2 and O3, <15ug/M^3 for PM2.5 and PM10, <300ug/M^3 for CO) and encoded in a companion smartphone APP which allows the users for real time assessment of personal exposure. In particular, a novel AQI strongly based on European Air Quality Index ([3]) have been developed for AQ real time data communication. Data have been collected using a custom IoT device management platform entrusted with inception, storage and data-viz roles. Finally data have been used to build UHR (UHR) AQ maps, using spatial binning approach (25mx25m) and median computation for each bin receiving more than 30 measurements during the campaign. The resulting maps have hown the possibility to allow for pinpointing city AQ hotpots which will allows fact-based remediation policies in cities lacking objective technologies to locally assess concentration exposure.  

[1] Nuria Castell et Al., Can commercial low-cost sensor platforms contribute to air quality monitoring and exposure estimates?, Environment International, Volume 99, 2017, Pages 293-302 ISSN 0160-4120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2016.12.007.

[2] De Vito, S, et al., Crowdsensing IoT Architecture for Pervasive Air Quality and Exposome Monitoring: Design, Development, Calibration, and Long-Term Validation. Sensors 2021, 21, 5219. https://doi.org/10.3390/s21155219

[3] https://airindex.eea.europa.eu/Map/AQI/Viewer/

How to cite: De Vito, S., Fattoruso, G., and Toscano, D.: An IoT based approach to ultra high resolution air quality mapping thorigh field calibrated monitoring devices, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9376, 2022.

Cumbre Vieja volcano (La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain) suffered a volcanic eruption that started on September 19 and finished on December 13, 2021. The eruption is considered the longest volcanic event since data are available on the island: it finished after 85 days and 8 hours of duration and 1,219 hectares of lava flows. La Palma Island is the fifth in extension (706 km2) and the second in elevation (2,423 m a.s.l.) of the Canarian archipelago. Cumbre Vieja volcano, where the volcanic activity has taken place exclusively in the last 123 ka, forms the sand outhern part of the island. In 2017, two remarkable seismic swarms interrupted a seismic silence of 46 years in Cumbre Vieja volcano with earthquakes located beneath Cumbre Vieja volcano at depths ranging between 14 and 28 km with a maximum magnitude of 2.7. Five additional seismic swarms were registered in 2020 and four in 2021. The eruption started ~1 week after the start of the last seismic swarm.

As part of the INVOLCAN volcano monitoring program of Cumbre Vieja, soil gas radon (²²²Rn) and thoron (²²⁰Rn) is being monitored at five sites in Cumbre Vieja using SARAD RTM2010-2 RTM 1688-2 portable radon monitors. ²²²Rn and ²²⁰Rn are two radioactive isotopes of radon with a half-life of 3.8 days and 54.4 seconds, respectively. Both isotopes can diffuse easily trough the soil and can be detected at very low concentrations, but their migration in large scales, ten to hundreds of meters, is supported by advection (pressure changes) and is related to the existence of a carrier gas source (geothermal fluids or fluids linked to magmatic and metamorphic phenomena), and to the existence of preferential routes for degassing (deep faults). Previous results on the monitoring of soil Rn in the Canary Islands with volcano monitoring purposes are promising (Padilla et al, 2013).     

The most remarkable result of the Rn monitoring network of Cumbre Vieja was observed in LPA01 station, located at the north-east of Cumbre Vieja. Since mid-March 2021, soil ²²²Rn activity experienced a sustained until reaching maximum values of ~1.0E+4 ²²²Rn Bq/m³ days before the eruption onset. During the eruptive period, soil ²²²Rn activity showed a gradual decreasing trend. The increase of magmatic-gas pressure due to magma movement towards the surface and the transport of anomalous ²²²Rn originated from hydrofracturing of rock, from direct magma degassing or from both, is the most plausible explanation for the increases in radon activity before the eruption onset observed at LPA01. As soil gas radon activity increased prior to the eruption onset, this monitoring technique can be efficiently used as an initial warning sign of the pressurization of magma beneath La Palma Island.

Padilla, G. D., et al. (2013), Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 14, 432–447, doi:10.1029/2012GC004375.

How to cite: Di Nardo, D., Padrón, E., Rodríguez-Pérez, C., Padilla, G. D., Barrancos, J., Hernández, P. A., Asensio-Ramos, M., and Pérez, N. M.: Soil gas Rn monitoring at Cumbre Vieja prior and during the 2021 eruption, La Palma, Canary Islands, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10290, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10290, 2022.

In 2015, the "Campania Trasparente" project (http://www.campaniatrasparente.it), a monitoring plan focused on assessing the environmental conditions of the territory of the Campania region, started thanks to the financial support of the regional government. The project's general management was in charge of the Experimental Zooprophylactic Institute of Southern Italy (IZSM).
In the project framework, the collection and analysis of many environmental and biological samples (including soil and air and human blood specimen) were completed. The primary aim of the whole project was to explore the existence of a link between the presence of some illnesses in the local population and the status of the environment and generate a reliable database to assess local foodstuff healthiness.
Six research units were active in the framework of the project. As for soil and air, the Environmental Geochemistry Working Group (EGWG) at the Department of Earth, Environment and Resources Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, was in charge of most of the research activities. Specifically, the EGWG completed the elaboration of the data on potentially toxic metals/metalloids (PTMs) and organic contaminants (PAHs, OCPs, Dioxins) in the regional soils and air.
The monitoring of air contaminants lasted more than one year, and it was completed employing passive air samplers (PAS) and deposimeters spread across the whole region.
Three volumes were published, including statistical elaborations and geochemical maps of all the contaminants analysed to provide both the regional government and local scientific and professional community with a reliable tool to approach local environmental problems starting from a sound base of knowledge.
Geochemical distribution patterns of potentially toxic elements (PTEs), for example, were used to establish local geochemical background/baseline intervals for those metals (naturally enriched in regional soils) found to systematically overcome the national environmental guidelines (set by the Legislative Decree 152/2006).
Data from the air, analysed in terms of concentration and time variation, were, instead, fundamental to discriminate the areas of the regional territory characterised by heavy contamination associated with the emission of organic compounds from anthropic sources.

The integration of all the data generated within the "Campania Trasparente" framework, including the data proceeding from the Susceptible Population Exposure Study (SPES), focusing on human biomonitoring (based on blood), allowed the development of a regional-wide conceptual model to be used as a base to generate highly specialised risk assessments for regional population and local communities affected by specific environmental problems.

How to cite: Albanese, S., Lima, A., Guarino, A., Qu, C., Cicchella, D., Esposito, M., Cerino, P., Pizzolante, A., and De Vivo, B.: The "Campania Trasparente" multiscale and multimedia monitoring project: an unprecedented experience in Italy., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10603, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10603, 2022.

Tenerife Island (2,034 km²) is the largest island of the Canarian archipelago. Its structure is controlled by a volcano-tectonic rift-system with NW, NE and NS directions, with the Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic system located in the intersection. Teide is 3,718 m.a.s.l. high and its last eruption occurred in 1798 through an adventive cone of Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex. Although Teide volcano shows a weak fumarolic system, volcanic gas emissions observed in the summit cone consist mostly of diffuse CO₂ degassing.

In this study we investigate the Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic system evolution using a comprehensive diffuse degassing geochemical dataset 216 geochemical surveys have been performed during the period 1999-2021 at the summit crater of Teide Volcano covering an area of 6,972 m². Diffuse CO₂ emission was estimated in 38 sampling sites, homogeneously distributed inside the crater, by means of a portable non dispersive infrared (NDIR) CO₂ fluxmeter using the accumulation chamber method. Additionally, soil gases were sampled at 40 cm depth using a metallic probe with a 60 cc hypodermic syringe and stored in 10 cc glass vials and send to the laboratory to analyse the He and H₂ content by means of quadrupole mass spectrometry and micro-gas chromatography, respectively. To estimate the He and H₂ emission rates at each sampling point, the diffusive component was estimated following the Fick’s law and the convective emission component model was estimated following the Darcy’s law. In all cases, spatial distribution maps were constructed averaging the results of 100 simulations following the sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) algorithm, in order to estimate CO₂, He and H₂ emission rates.

During 22 years of the studied period, CO₂ emissions ranged from 2.0 to 345.9 t/d, He emissions between 0.013 and 4.5 kg/d and H₂ between 1.3 and 64.4 kg/d. On October 2, 2016, a seismic swarm of long-period events was recorded on Tenerife followed by an increase of the seismic activity in and around the island (D’Auria et al., 2019; Padrón et al., 2021). Several geochemical parameters showed significant changes during ∼June–August of 2016 and 1–2 months before the occurrence of the October 2, 2016, long-period seismic swarm (Padrón et al., 2021). Diffuse degassing studies as useful to conclude that the origin of the 2 October 2016 seismic swarm an input of magmatic fluids triggered by an injection of fresh magma and convective mixing. Thenceforth, relatively high values have been obtained in the three soil gases species studied at the crater of Teide, with the maximum emission rates values registered during 2021. This increase reflects a process of pressurization of the volcanic-hydrothermal system. This increment in CO₂, He and H₂ emissions indicate changes in the activity of the system and can be useful to understand the behaviour of the volcanic system and to forecast future volcanic activity. Monitoring the diffuse degassing rates has demonstrated to be an essential tool for the prediction of future seismic–volcanic unrest, and has become important to reduce volcanic risk in Tenerife.

D'Auria, L., et al. (2019). J. Geophys. Res.124,8739-8752

Padrón, E., et al., (2021). J. Geophys. Res.126,e2020JB020318

How to cite: Padilla, G. D., Rodríguez, F., Asensio-Ramos, M., Melián, G. V., Alonso, M., Martín-Lorenzo, A., Coldwell, B. C., Rodríguez, C., Santana de León, J. M., Padrón, E., Barrancos, J., D'Auria, L., Hernández, P. A., and Pérez, N. M.: Long-term variations of diffuse CO2, He and H2 at the summit crater of Teide volcano, Tenerife, Canary Islands during 1999-2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10659, 2022.

Geodetic modelling is a valuable tool to infer volume and geometry of volcanic source system; it represents a key procedure for detecting and characterizing unrest and eruption episodes. In this study, we analyse the 2009–2013 uplift phenomenon at Campi Flegrei (CF) caldera in terms of spatial and temporal variations of the stress/strain field due to the effect of the retrieved inflating source. We start by performing a 3D stationary finite element (FE) modelling of geodetic datasets to retrieve the geometry and location of the deformation source. The geometry of FE domain takes into account both the topography and the bathymetry of the whole caldera. For what concern the definition of domain elastic parameters, we take into account the Vp/Vs distribution from seismic tomography. We optimize our model parameters by exploiting two different geodetic datasets: the GPS data and DInSAR measurements. The modelling results suggest that the best-fit source is a three-axis oblate spheroid ~3 km deep, similar to a sill-like body. Furthermore, in order to verify the reliability of the geometry model results, we calculate the Total Horizontal Derivative (THD) of the vertical velocity component and compare it with those performed with the DInSAR measurements. Subsequently, starting from the same FE modelling domain, we explore a 3D time-dependent FE model, comparing the spatial and temporal distribution of the shear stress and volumetric strain with the seismic swarms beneath the caldera. Finally, We found that low values of shear stress are observed corresponding with the shallow hydrothermal system where low-magnitude earthquakes occur, whereas high values of shear stress are found at depths of about 3 km, where high-magnitude earthquakes nucleate.

How to cite: Castaldo, R., Solaro, G., and Tizzani, P.: Analysis and Modelling of 2009-2013 Unrest Episodes at Campi Flegrei Caldera, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11493, 2022.

Thermal features of environmental systems are increasingly investigated after the development of remote sensing technologies; the increasing availability of Earth Observation (EO) missions allows the retrieval of the Land Surface Temperature (LST) parameter, which is widely used for a large variety of applications (Galve et al., 2018). In volcanic environment, the LST is an indicator of the spatial distribution of thermal anomalies at the ground surface, supporting designed tools for monitoring purposes (Caputo et al., 2019); therefore, LST can be used to understand endogenous processes and to model thermal sources.

In this framework, we present the results of activities carried out in the FLUIDs PRIN project, which aims at the characterization and modeling of fluids migration at different scales (https://www.prinfluids.it/). We propose a multi-scale analysis of thermal data at Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc); this area is well known for hosting thermal processes related to both magmatic and hydrothermal systems (Chiodini et al., 2015; Castaldo et al., 2021). Accordingly, data collected at different scales are suitable to search out local thermal trends with respect to regional ones. In particular, in this work we compare LST estimated from Landsat satellite images covering the entire volcanic area and ground measurements nearby the Solfatara crater.

Firstly, we exploit Landsat data to derive time series of LST by applying an algorithm based on Radiative Transfer Equations (RTE) (Qin et al., 2001; Jimenez-Munoz et al., 2014). The algorithm exploits both thermal infrared (TIR) and visible/near infrared (VIS/NIR) bands of different Landsat missions in the period 2000-2021; we used time series imagery from Landsat 5 (L5), Landsat 7 (L7) and Landsat 8 (L8) satellite missions to retrieve the thermal patterns of the CFc area with spatial resolutions of 30 m for VIS/NIR bands and 60 m to 120 m for TIR bands. Theoretical frequency of acquisition of the Landsat missions is 16 days that is reduced over the study area by cloud cover: Landsat images with high cloud cover were in fact discarded from the time series.

In particular, we process both the daily acquisitions as well nighttime data to provide thermal features at the ground surface in the absence of solar radiation. To emphasize the thermal anomalies of endogenous phenomena, the retrieved LST time-series are corrected following these steps: (i) removal of spatial and temporal outliers; (ii) correction for adiabatic gradient of the air with the altitude; (iii) detection and removal of the seasonal component.

Regarding to the ground-based acquisitions, we consider the data collected by the Osservatorio Vesuviano, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (OV- INGV, Italy, Naples); the dataset consists of 151 thermal measurements distributed within the 2004-2021 time-interval and acquired inside the Solfatara and Pisciarelli areas at a depth of 0.01 m below the ground surface. Similarly, we process this dataset following corrections (i) and (iii).

Finally, we compare the temporal evolution of thermal patterns retrieved by the satellite and ground-based measurements, highlighting the supporting information provided by LST and its integration with data at ground.

How to cite: Barone, A., Stroppiana, D., Castaldo, R., Caliro, S., Chiodini, G., D'Auria, L., Gola, G., Parisi, F., Pepe, S., Solaro, G., and Tizzani, P.: Time evolution of Land Surface Temperature (LST) in active volcanic areas detected via integration of satellite and ground-based measurements: the Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy) case study., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11874, 2022.

We propose a novel multidisciplinary approach to image the thermo-rheological stratification beneath active volcanic areas, such as Long Valley Caldera (LVC), which hosts a magmatic-hydrothermal system. Geothermal facilities near the Casa Diablo locality supply 40 MWe from three binary power plants, exploiting about 850 kg s⁻¹ of 160–180 °C water that circulates within the volcanic sediments 200 to 350 meters deep. We performed a thermal fluid dynamic model via optimization procedure of the thermal conditions of the crust. We characterize the topology of the hot magmatic bodies and the hot fluid circulation (the permeable fault-zones), using both a novel imaging of the a and b parameters of the Gutenberg-Richter law and an innovative procedure analysis of P-wave tomographic models. The optimization procedure provides the permeability of a reservoir (5.0 × 10⁻¹⁴ m²) and of the fault-zone (5.0 · 10−14 – 1.0 × 10⁻¹³ m²), as well as the temperature of the magma body (750–800°C). The imaging of the rheological properties of the crust indicates that the brittle/ductile transition occurs about 5 km b.s.l. depth, beneath the resurgent dome. There are again deeper brittle conditions about 15 km b.s.l., agreeing with the previous observations. The comparison between the conductive and the conductive-convective heat transfer models highlights that the deeper fluid circulation efficiently cools the volumes above the magmatic body, transferring the heat to the shallow geothermal system. This process has a significant impact on the rheological properties of the upper crust as the migration of the B/D transition. Our findings show an active magmatic system (6–10 km deep) and confirm that LVC is a long-life silicic caldera system. Furthermore, the occurrence of deep-seated, super-hot geothermal resources 4.5 – 5.0 km deep, possibly in supercritical conditions, cannot be ruled out.

How to cite: Gola, G., Barone, A., Castaldo, R., Chiodini, G., D'Auria, L., García-Hernández, R., Pepe, S., Solaro, G., and Tizzani, P.: Integrating geophysical, geochemical, petrological and geological data for the thermal and rheological characterization of unconventional geothermal fields: the case study of Long Valley Caldera, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11990, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11990, 2022.

Increasing the organic matter content of the soil has been presented in the:”4per1000″ proposal as a significant climate mitigation measure able to support the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 13 - Climate Action of United Nations.

At the same time, the report of the Mission Board for Soil health and Food, "Caring for soil is caring for life," indicates that one of the targets that must be reached by 2030 is the conservation and increase of soil organic carbon stock.  De facto, the panel clearly indicates the soil organic carbon as one of the indicators that can be used to monitor soil health, and at the same time, if the current soil use is sustainable or not.

Thus it is to be expected that the monitoring of SOC will become requested to check and monitor the sustainability of agricultural practices realized in the agricultural areas. For all the above reasons, the development of a reliable and fast indirect methods to evaluate the SOC is necessary to support different stakeholders (government, municipality, farmer) to monitor SOC at different spatial scales (national, regional, local).

Over the past two decades, data mining approaches in spatial modeling of soil organic carbon using machine learning techniques and artificial neural network (ANN) to investigate the amount of carbon in the soil using remote sensing data has been widely considered. Accordingly, this study aims to design an accurate and robust neural network model to estimate the soil organic carbon using the data-based field-portable spectrometer and laboratory-based visible and near-infrared (VIS/NIR, 350−2500 nm) spectroscopy of soils. The measurements will be on two sets of the same soil samples, the first by the standard protocol of requested laboratories for soil scanning, The second set of the soil samples without any cultivation to simulate the soil condition in the sampling field emphasizes the predictive capabilities to achieve fast, cheap and accurate soil status. Carbon soil parameter will determine using, multivariate regression method used for prediction with Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (Lasso) in interval way (high, medium, and low). The results will increase accuracy, precision, and cost-effectiveness over traditional ex-situ methods.

The contribution has been realized within the international EIT Food project MOSOM (Mapping of Soil Organic Matter; https://www.eitfood.eu/projects/mosom)

How to cite: Ezzy, H., Brook, A., Ciavatta, C., Ventura, F., Vignudelli, M., and Bonfante, A.: The evaluation of soil organic carbon through VIS-NIR spectroscopy to support the soil health monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12331, 2022.

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) represents nowadays a well-established tool for day and night and all-weather microwave Earth Oobservation (EO) [1]. In last decades, a number of procedures EO techniques based on SAR data have been indeed devised developed for investigating several natural and anthropic phenomena the monitoring of affecting our planet. Among these, SAR Interferometry (InSAR) and Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR) undoubtedly represent a powerful techniques to characterize the deformation processes associated to several natural phenomena, such as eEarthquakes, landslides, subsidences andor volcanic unrest events [2] - [4].

In particular, such techniques can benefit of the operational flexibility offered by airborne SAR systems, which allow us to frequently monitor fast-evolving phenomena, timely reach the region of interest in case of emergency, and observe the same scene under arbitrary flight tracks.

In this work, we present the results relevant to multiple radar surveys carried out over the Stromboli Island, in Italy, through the Italian Airborne X-band Interferometric SAR (AXIS) system. The latter is based on the Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) technology, and is equipped with a three-antenna single-pass interferometric layout [5].

The considered dataset has been collected during three different acquisition campaigns, carried out from July 2019 to June 2021, and consists of radar data acquired along four flight directions (SW-NE, NW-SE, NE-SW, SE-NW), as to describe flight circuits around the island and to illuminate the Stromboli volcano under different points of view.

References

[1] Moreira, P. Prats-Iraola, M. Younis, G. Krieger, I. Hajnsek, K. P. Papathanassiou, “A tutorial on Synthetic Aperture Radar”, IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Magazine, pp. 6-43, March 2013.

[2] Bamler, R., Hartl, P., 1998. Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry. Inverse problems, 14(4), R1.

[3] P. Berardino, G. Fornaro, R. Lanari and E. Sansosti, “A new algorithm for surface deformation monitoring based on small baseline differential SAR interferograms”, IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., vol. 40, no. 11, pp. 2375-2383, Nov. 2002.

[4] R. Lanari, M. Bonano, F. Casu, C. De Luca, M. Manunta, M. Manzo, G. Onorato, I. Zinno, “Automatic Generation of Sentinel-1 Continental Scale DInSAR Deformation Time Series through an Extended P-SBAS Processing Pipeline in a Cloud Computing Environment”, Remote Sensing, 2020, 12, 2961.

[5] C. Esposito, A. Natale, G. Palmese, P. Berardino, R. Lanari, S. Perna, “On the Capabilities of the Italian Airborne FMCW AXIS InSAR System”, Remote Sens. 2020, 12, 539.

How to cite: Berardino, P., Natale, A., Esposito, C., Palmese, G., Lanari, R., and Perna, S.: Stromboli Volcano observations through the Airborne X-band Interferometric SAR (AXIS) system, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12364, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12364, 2022.

Fra. Si. a national research project supported by the Ministry of the Environment and Land and Sea Protection, develops a coherent set of multiscale methodologies for the assessment and zoning of earthquake-induced landslide hazards. To achieve the goal, the project operates at different geographical, temporal, and organizational scales, and in different geological, geomorphological, and seismic-tectonic contexts. Given the complexity, variability, and extent of earthquake-induced landslides in Italy, operating at multiple scales allows you to (a) maximize the use of available data and information; (b) propose methodologies and experiment with models that operate at different scales and in different contexts, exploiting their peculiarities at the most congenial scales and coherently exporting the results at different scales; and (c) obtain results at scales of interest for different users.

The project defines a univocal and coherent methodological framework for the assessment and zoning of earthquake-induced landslide hazard, integrating existing information and data on earthquake-induced landslide in Italy, available to proponents, available in technical literature and from "open" sources - in favor of the cost-effectiveness of the proposal. The integration exploits a coherent set of modeling tools, expert (heuristic) and numerical (statistical and probabilistic, physically-based, FEM, optimization models). The methodology considers the problem at multiple scales, including: (a) three geographic scales - the national synoptic scale, the regional mesoscale and the local scale; (b) two time scales - the pre-event scale typical of territorial planning and the deferred time of civil protection, and the post-event scale, characteristic of real civil protection time; and (c) different organizational and management scales - from spatial planning and soil defense, including post-seismic reconstruction, to civil protection rapid response. Furthermore, the methodology considers the characteristics of the seismic-induced landslide and the associated hazard in the main geological, geomorphological and seismic-tectonic contexts in Italy.

The project develops methodologies and products for different users and/or users. The former concern methodologies for (i) the synoptic zoning of the hazard caused by earthquake-induced landslides in Italy; (ii) the zoning and quantification of the danger from earthquake-induced landslides on a regional scale; (iii) the quantification of the danger of single deep landslides in the seismic phase; and for (iv) the identification and geological-technical modeling of deep co-seismic landslides starting from advanced DInSAR analyzes from post-seismic satellites.

How to cite: Tizzani, P., Reichenbach, P., Fiorucci, F., Alvioli, M., Moscatelli, M., and Bonfante, A. and the Fra.Si. Team: FRA.SI.project - AN INTEGRATED MULTI-SCALE METHODOLOGIES FOR THE ZONATION OF LANDSLIDE-INDUCED HAZARD IN ITALY, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12927, 2022.

Wet deposition has been identified as a critical impactor for the modelling of ¹³⁷Cs in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear power plant (FDNPP) accident. However, it is difficult to simulate due to the involvement of close interaction between various complicated meteorological and physical processes during the wet deposition process. The limitation of measurement of the in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging also contribute to the uncertainty in wet deposition modeling, leading to the great variation of ¹³⁷Cs wet deposition parameterization. These variations can be amplified further by inaccurate meteorological input, making simulation of radionuclide transport sensitive to the choice of wet scavenging parameterization. Moreover, simulations can also be influenced by differences between radionuclide transport models, even if they adopt similar parameterization for wet scavenging. Although intensively investigated, wet deposition simulation is still subject to uncertainties of meteorological inputs and wet scavenging modeling, leading to biased ¹³⁷Cs transport prediction.

To improve modeling of ¹³⁷Cs transport, both in- and below-cloud wet scavenging schemes were integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model, yielding online coupled modeling of meteorology and the two wet scavenging processes. Overall, 25 combinations of different in- and below-cloud scavenging schemes of ¹³⁷Cs, covering most wet scavenging schemes reported in the literature, were integrated into WRF-Chem. Additionally, two microphysics schemes were compared to improve the simulation of precipitation. These 25 models and the ensemble mean of 9 representative models were systematically compared with a previous below-cloud-only WRF-Chem model, using the cumulative deposition and atmospheric concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs measurements. The findings could elucidate the range of variation among these schemes both within and across the five in-cloud groups, reveal the behaviors and sensitivities of different schemes in different scenarios.

The results revealed that the Morrison's double moment cloud microphysics scheme improves the simulation of rainfall and deposition pattern. Furthermore, the integration of the in-cloud schemes in WRF-Chem substantially reduces the bias in the cumulative deposition simulation, especially in the Nakadori and Tochigi regions where light rain dominated. For atmospheric concentration of ¹³⁷Cs, those models with in-cloud schemes that consider cloud parameters showed better and more stable performance, among which Hertel-Bakla performed best for atmospheric concentration and Roselle-Apsimon performed best for both deposition and atmospheric concentration. In contrast, the in-cloud schemes that rely solely on rain intensity were found sensitive to the meteorological conditions and showed varied performance in relation to the plume events examined. The analysis based on the spatial pattern shows that the Roselle scheme, which considers cloud liquid water content and depth, can achieve a more balanced allocation of ¹³⁷Cs between the air and the ground in these two cases than that achieved by the empirical power function scheme Environ. The ensemble mean achieves satisfactory performance except for one plume event, but still outperforms most models. The range of variation of the 25 models covered most of the measurements, reflecting the reasonable capability of WRF-Chem for modeling ¹³⁷Cs transport.

How to cite: Zhuang, S., Dong, X., and Fang, S.: Sensitivity analysis on the wet deposition parameterization for 137Cs transport modeling following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-177, 2022.

The nuclear emergency response for accidental release around the nuclear power plant site (NPPs) requires a fast and accurate estimate of the influence caused by gaseous hazardous pollutants spreading, which is critical for and preventing protecting lives, creatures, and the environment. However, as usual, the NPPs is consist of dense buildings and multi-type terrain, e.g. river and mountain, which poses challenges to atmospheric dispersion calculation for response tasks. Micro-SWIFT SPRAY (MSS) comprises both the diagnostic wind model and the dispersion model, which enables the airflows and atmospheric dispersion simulation with the meteorological and other inputs. For a small-scale scenario, especially, the separate module for obstacles influence modeling provides the potential capability of precise atmospheric dispersion. But the error behavior of such a scenario around a nuclear power plant site with complex topography remains to be further demonstrated. In this study, MSS is comprehensively evaluated against a wind tunnel experiment with a 1:600 scale for the small-scale (3 km × 3km) atmospheric dispersion modeling. Tens of buildings located in this scenario of a NPPs surrounded by a mountain and river. The evaluations for diagnostic wind modeling include the speed, direction, and distribution of horizontal airflows and vertical profile of speed at a representative site. And for the concentration calculation, horizontal distribution, axis profile, and vertical profile at a representative site. The results demonstrate the MSS can reproduce fine airflows near the buildings but overestimate the wind speed. The maximum deviation of vertical speed is around 2.09 m/s at the representative site. The simulated plume of concentration reproduces the highest concentration place and matches the observations well. The axis profile of concentration is underestimated and the vertical profile displays an increasing deviation with the height increase. Compared with the observations, the FAC5 and FAC2 of concentration simulation reach 0.945 and 0.891 in the entire calculation domain, which convinces the performance of MSS in small-scale modeling.

How to cite: Dong, X., Zhuang, S., and Fang, S.: Micro-SWIFT SPRAY modeling of atmospheric dispersion around a nuclear power plant site with complex topography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-190, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-190, 2022.

Chlorine 36 (³⁶Cl, T_1/2 = 301,000 years) is a radionuclide with natural and anthropogenic origin that can be rejected accidentally during decommissioning of nuclear power plants or chronically during recycling of nuclear waste. Once emitted into the atmosphere, ³⁶Cl (gas and particles) can be transferred to the soil and vegetal cover by dry and wet deposition. However, knowledge of these deposits is very scarce. Because of its relatively high mobility in the geosphere and its high bioavailability, ³⁶Cl fate in the environment should be studied for environmental and human impact assessments. So, the objective of this work is to determine the dry deposition rates of chlorine 36 on grassland. Grass is studied, as it is a link in the human food chain via cow's milk.

In order to achieve this objective, a method for extracting the chlorine contained in plant leaves has been developed. This method consists in heating the dried and grounded plant sample in presence of sodium hydroxide. A temperature gradient up to 450°C allows the extraction to be carried out in two stages: (i) The chlorides with a strong affinity for alkaline environments are first extracted from the plant and preserved in sodium hydroxide; (ii) The organic matter is then destroyed by combustion and the sodium hydroxide crystallised. Brought out from the oven, the dry residue is dissolved in ultrapure water and chemically prepared for the measurement of chlorine 36. This extraction method was validated by its application to NIST standards of peach and apple leaves. The average extraction efficiency of chlorides was 83 ± 3%.

For the determination of dry deposition rates, 1m² of grass was exposed every 2 weeks at the IRSN La Hague technical platform (PTILH) located 2 km downwind from Orano la Hague, a chronic source of low-level chlorine 36 emissions. A mobile shelter with automatic humidity detection covered the grass during rainy episodes. In proximity to the grass, atmospheric chlorine was also sampled at the same frequency as the grass. Gaseous chlorine was sampled by bubbling in sodium hydroxide and by an AS3000 sampler containing activated carbon cartridge. Particulate chlorine was collected on a composite (teflon and glass fibre) filter. Chlorine 36 was measured by accelerated mass spectrometry ASTER (Accelerator for Earth Sciences, Environment and Risks) at CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France. All samples were subjected to a succession of chemical preparations in order to remove the sulphur 36 (an isobaric interferent) and to collect the chlorides in the form of AgCl pastilles. The results show a chlorine 36 deposition flux on the grass of 2.94.10² at/m².s with a deposition velocity in dry weather v_{d(gas+particles)} = 8.10^-4 m/s for a contribution of 65.5% of particulate chlorine 36 and 34.5% of gaseous chlorine 36. Based on these experimental results, a modelling of the dry and wet deposits will be carried out considering the parameters related to the canopy and the atmospheric turbulence.

How to cite: Deo, S., Hebert, D., Benedetti, L., Vitorge, E., Lourino Cabana, B., Guillou, V., and Maro, D.: Dry deposition velocity of chlorine 36 on grassland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-666, 2022.

Lake Onuma on Mt. Akagi (Gunma Prefecture, Japan) is a closed lake with an average water residence time of 2.3 years. The activity concentration of radioactive cesium in the lake was high shortly after the Fukushima accident. According to Suzuki et al. [1] and Watanabe [2], after a filtration process, Cs-137 are separated into two groups: particulate form and dissolved form. These two forms appears to have very different concentration profiles with each other,  when the Cs-137 concentration plotted against the sampled water depths. In the present study, we are going to model those behavior of particulate/dissolved forms with an emphasis on the depth dependency.

We consider a creation-annihilation process of plankton for the model of the particulate form, since diatom shells are found to be a major constituent of the particulate Cs-137 [2]. We set  ∂P/∂t = f(x,t)  and  f(x,t) = χ(x) cos(ωt) (0 ≤ x ≤ L(water column height), t > 0),  where P=P(x,t) is the activity concentration of the particulate form. The term f(x,t) is the rate of the net production of the plankton at a specific location x at a specific time t. Seasonal cycle is also taken into account by the cosine function (we neglect the phase shift here). The function χ(x), depends solely on water depth x, is responsible for dynamics or inhomogeneity of lake water, such as circulation, stratification or a thermocline. We assume that such a water structure relates to the production rate of plankton through the function χ(x). Thus, we may obtain the concentration of particulate Cs-137. For the dissolved concentration S(x,t), we use the classical diffusion equation with the diffusivity K being dependent on both space and time (i.e. K(x,t)), namely ∂S/∂t =  ∇•(K(x,t) ∇S). Here S=S(x,t) is the activity concentration of the dissolved form. The total activity concentration C(x,t) is the sum of P(x,t) and S(x,t). Using the pair of the equations, we can reproduce the followings. (1) depth profiles of each of the soluble- and particulate activity concentration and (2) depth profiles of the total Cs-137 concentration.

 [1] Suzuki, K. et al., Sci. Tot. Env. (2018)

 [2] Watanabe, S. et al.,  Proc. 20^th Workshop on Environmental Radioactivity (2019)

How to cite: Hatano, Y., Akasaki, K., Suetomi, E., Okada, Y., Suzuki, K., and Watanabe, S.: Modeling the depth dependence of Cs-137 concentration in Lake Onuma, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1235, 2022.

How to cite: Igarashi, Y., Kenji, N., Wada, T., Wakiyama, Y., Onda, Y., and Moritaka, S.: Factors controlling the dissolved 137Cs seasonal fluctuations in the Abukuma River under the influence of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3340, 2022.

This study presents the temporal variations in riverine ¹³⁷Cs concentrations and fluxes to the ocean during high-flow events in three coastal river catchments contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. River water samples were collected at points downstream in the Niida, Ukedo, and Takase Rivers during three high-flow events that occurred in 2019–2020. Variations in both the dissolved ¹³⁷Cs concentration and ¹³⁷Cs concentration in suspended solids appeared to reflect the spatial pattern of the ¹³⁷Cs inventory in the catchments, rather than variations in physico-chemical properties. Negative relationships between the ¹³⁷Cs concentration and δ¹⁵N in suspended sediment were found in all rivers during the intense rainfall events, suggesting an increased contribution of sediment from forested areas to the elevated ¹³⁷Cs concentration. The ¹³⁷Cs flux ranged from 0.33 to 18 GBq, depending on the rainfall erosivity. The particulate ¹³⁷Cs fluxes from the Ukedo River were relatively low compared with the other two rivers and were attributed to the effect of the Ogaki Dam reservoir upstream. The ratio of ¹³⁷Cs desorbed in seawater to ¹³⁷Cs in suspended solids ranged from 2.8% to 6.6% and tended to be higher with a higher fraction of exchangeable ¹³⁷Cs. The estimated potential release of ¹³⁷Cs from suspended solids to the ocean was 0.048–0.57 GBq, or 0.8–6.2 times higher than the direct flux of dissolved ¹³⁷Cs from the river. Episodic sampling during high-flow events demonstrated that the particulate ¹³⁷Cs flux depends on catchment characteristics and controls ¹³⁷Cs transfer to the ocean. 

How to cite: Wakiyama, Y., Niida, T., Takata, H., Taniguchi, K., Kurosawa, H., Fujita, K., and Konoplev, A.: A comparative study of riverine 137Cs dynamics during high-flow events at three contaminated river catchments in Fukushima, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3442, 2022.

    The Fukushima-Daiichi accident involved massive and complex releases of radionuclides in the atmosphere. The releases assessment is a key issue and can be achieved by advanced inverse modelling techniques combined with a relevant dataset of measurements. A Bayesian inversion is particularly suitable to deal with this case. Indeed, it allows for rigorous statistical modelling and enables easy incorporation of informations of different natures into the reconstruction of the source and the associated uncertainties.
    We propose several methods to better quantify the Fukushima-Daiichi 137Cs source and the associated uncertainties. Firstly, we implement the Reversible-Jump MCMC algorithm, a sampling technique able to reconstruct the distributions of the 137Cs source magnitude together with its temporal discretisation. Secondly, we develop methods to (i) mix both air concentration and deposition measurements, and to (ii) take into account the spatial and temporal information from the air concentration measurements in the error covariance matrix determination.
    Using these methods, we obtain distributions of hourly 137Cs release rates from 11 to 24 March and assess the performance of our techniques by carrying out a model-to-data comparison. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this comparison is very sensitive to the statistical modelling of the inverse problem.

How to cite: Dumont Le Brazidec, J., Bocquet, M., Saunier, O., and Roustan, Y.: Integrating measurement representativeness and release temporal variability to improve the Fukushima-Daiichi 137Cs source reconstruction, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5397, 2022.

Bottom sediments of lakes and dam reservoirs can provide an insight into understanding the dynamics of ¹³⁷Cs strongly bound to sediment particles. On this premise, a number of cores of bottom sediments were collected in deep parts of lakes Glubokoe, Azbuchin, and Cooling Pond in close vicinity of the Chernobyl NPP in Ukraine, in Schekino reservoir (Upa River) in the Tula region of Russia (2018) and in Ogaki reservoir (Ukedo River) in Fukushima contaminated area (2019). Each layer of bottom sediments can be attributed to a certain time of suspended particles sedimentation. With ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in a given layer of bottom sediments corresponding to ¹³⁷Cs concentration on suspended matter at that point in time, we were able to reconstruct the post-accidental dynamics of particulate ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations. Using experimental values of the distribution coefficient K_d, changes in the dissolved ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations were estimated. The annual mean particulate and dissolved ¹³⁷Cs wash-off ratios were also calculated for the period after the accidents. Interestingly, the particulate ¹³⁷Cs wash-off ratios for the Ukedo River at Ogaki dam were found to be similar to those for the Pripyat River at Chernobyl in the same time period after the accident, while the dissolved ¹³⁷Cs wash-off ratios in the Ukedo River were an order of magnitude lower than the corresponding values in the Pripyat River. The estimates of particulate and dissolved ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in Chernobyl cases were in reasonable agreement with monitoring data and predictions using the semi-empirical diffusional model. However, both the particulate and dissolved ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations and wash-off ratios in the Ukedo River declined faster during the first eight years after the FDNPP accident than predicted by the diffusional model, most likely, due to greater natural attenuation and, to some extent, remediation measures implemented on the catchments in Fukushima.

This research was supported by Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS), Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST)/Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) (JPMJSA1603), by bilateral project No. 18-55-50002 of Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) and Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), and JSPS Project KAKENHI (B) 18H03389.

How to cite: Konoplev, A., Wakiyama, Y., Wada, T., Igarashi, Y., Laptev, G., Golosov, V., Ivanov, M., Komissarov, M., and Nanba, K.: Vertical distribution of 137Cs in bottom sediments as representing the time changes of water contamination: Chernobyl and Fukushima, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6698, 2022.

The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident occurred on March 11, 2011, and a large amount of Cs-137 was released into the environment. It is important to clarify the behavior of radioactive cesium-137 in headwater catchments because most of the Cs-137 falls and is deposited in forest areas and is transported in the environment through river systems.

The purpose of this study was to clarify the influence of water quality composition and organic matter on the seasonal variation of dissolved Cs-137 concentrations in stream water based on long-term monitoring since 2011 at four headwaters catchments in Yamakiya district, Fukushima Prefecture (Iboishiyama, Ishidairayama, Koutaishiyama, Setohachiyama), located about 35 km northwest of FDNPP.

Water temperature, pH, and EC were measured in the field, and SS and coarse organic matter were collected using a time-integrated SS (suspended sediments) sampler and organic matter net. The Cs-137 concentrations was measured in the laboratory using a germanium detector. Concentrations of cations (Na⁺,K⁺,Ca²⁺,Mg²⁺,NH₄⁺) and anions (Cl⁻,SO₄²⁻,NO₃⁻,NO₂⁻,PO₄²⁻) were measured by ion chromatography after 0.45μm filtration. In addition, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations was measured using a total organic carbon analyzer.

The results showed that K⁺, which is highly competitive with Cs-137, was detected at Iboisiyama, Ishidairayama, and Koutaishiyama, while NH₄⁺ was only detected in some samples at Iboishiyama. There was no obvious relationship between dissolved ion concentration and water temperature, and between dissolved ion concentration and dissolved ¹³⁷Cs concentration at all sites. However, a positive correlation between dissolved cesium concentration and water temperature and DOC and water temperature was observed at all sites regardless of the presence of K⁺ and NH₄⁺. On the other hand, there was no clear relationship between the cesium concentrations in SS and organic matter and water temperature. These results suggest that the seasonal variation in dissolved Cs-137 concentrations in stream water with water temperature could be caused by the seasonality of microbial decomposition of organic matter.

How to cite: Kawano, T., Onda, Y., Takahishi, J., Makino, F., and Iwagami, S.: Seasonal variation of dissolved Cs-137 concentrations in headwater catchments in Yamakiya district, Fukushima Prefecture, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7068, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7068, 2022.

A study of ¹³⁷Cs distribution in a landscape cross-section characterizing the ELGS system (top-slope-closing depression) in the “Vyshkov-2” test site located in the Chernobyl abandoned zone, the Bryansk region, Russia, has been performed in 2015 and 2021. The test site (70×100 m) is located on the Iput’ river terrace in a pine forest characterized by the undisturbed soil-plant cover. Sod-podzolic sandy illuvial-ferruginous soils present the soil cover. The initial level of ¹³⁷Cs contamination of the area varied from 1480 kBq/m² to 1850 kBq/m². Up to now, 89-99 % of the total ¹³⁷Cs is fixed in the upper 20 cm soil layer with 70-96 % in the upper 8 cm. It allows field spectrometry data to study the structure of the ¹³⁷Cs contamination field. The ¹³⁷Cs activity was measured in the soil and moss cover along cross-sections with 1 m step by adapted gamma-spectrometer Violinist-III (USA). Cs-137 content in the soil cores’ and plant samples was determined in the laboratory by Canberra gamma-spectrometer with HPGe detector. It was shown that there is no unidirectional movement of ¹³⁷Cs both in the soil and in the vegetation cover of the ELGS from the top to the closing depression. On the contrary, the data obtained allow us to state a pronounced cyclical variation of the ¹³⁷Cs activity in ELGS, which can be traced in the soil and the vegetation. The variation appeared to be rather stable in space 29 and 35 years after the primary pollution. Cyclic fluctuation (variation) of ¹³⁷Cs activity was described mathematically using Fourier-analysis, which was used to model the observed changes by the revealed three main harmonics. High and significant correlation coefficients obtained between the variation of ¹³⁷Cs activity and the model for the soil-vegetation cover (r_0,01= 0,868; n=17 - 2015; r_0,01= 0,675; n=17 - 2021), soils (r_0,01= 0,503-0,859; n=17) and moss samples (r_0,01= 0,883; n=17 - 2015; r_0,01= 0,678; n=17 - 2021) proved satisfactory fitting of models. The character of ¹³⁷Cs variability in moss cover was generally similar to surface soil contamination, but the level of contamination and amplitude was specific.

The performed study confirmed specific features of ¹³⁷Cs secondary migration in ELGS, which periodic functions describe. We infer that the observed cyclicity reflects elements’ migration in the ELGS system with water.

The reported study was funded by the Vernadsky Institute federal budget (research task #0137-2019-0006). The field works were supported partly by RFBR No 19-05-00816.

How to cite: Dolgushin, D. and Korobova, E.: Regularities of the 137Cs secondary distribution in the soil-moss cover of elementary landscape-geochemical systems and its dynamics within 6 years on the test site in the Chernobyl abandoned zone, Russia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8178, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8178, 2022.

Radiocaesium derived from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP1) accident was observed across a wide area of the North Pacific, not only in surface seawater, but also in the ocean interior. In this presentation, we summarized the time scale of Lagrangian transport of the FNPP1 derived radiocaesium in surface water during the period from the time of the accident to March 2021 in the North Pacific and the Arctic Oceans and its marginal seas as shown below.

Initial observation results until December 2012 in the surface layer in the North Pacific Ocean by the global observations revealed that a typical feature within one year after the accident was a westward movement across the North Pacific Ocean, speed of which was reported at 7 km day^-1 until August 2011. After that, the main body of FNPP1-derived radiocaesium moved east as 3 km day^-1 and is separated from Japan in 2013. The arrival of the FNPP1 signal at the west coast of the American continent was reported in 2014. The elevation in the FNPP1 derived radiocaesium concentration in the Bering Sea in 2017 and in the Arctic Ocean in 2019 was reported. The northward bifurcation of the Kuroshio Extension made these obvious transport of the FNPP1 derived radiocaesium to the subarctic and arctic region while the transport by southward bifurcation was not observed. At Hawaii Islands in the subtropical gyre, there was no signal of the FNPP1 derived radiocaesium during the period from March 2011 and February 2017. At Yonaguni Island where the Kuroshio enters the East China Sea, the FNPP1 signal arrived at Yonaguni Islands eight years after the time of the accident, and these might be transported mainly from the subtropical gyre.

At the marginal seas of the North Pacific Ocean, the elevation in the FNPP1 derived radiocaesium concentration in the northern East China Sea in 2014, in the Sea of Japan in 2014/2015 were observed.

We also briefly summarize study results on nuclides other than radiocaesium (e.g., ⁹⁰Sr, ²³⁹²⁴⁰Pu, and ¹²⁹I).

How to cite: Aoyama, M., Kumamoto, Y., and Inomata, Y.: Ten-year long-range transport of radiocaesium in the surface layer in the Pacific Ocean and its marginal seas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9022, 2022.

Radiocesium (¹³⁷Cs) was one of the radioactive materials released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident in March 2011. Highly ¹³⁷Cs contaminated water from groundwater to the sea was reduced after installation of the sea-side impermeable wall as a countermeasure against contaminated water in October 2015. As a result, ¹³⁷Cs contamination in water from other sources became more prominent and the levels of ¹³⁷Cs concentration in seawater was correlated with rainfall fluctuation. To determine the source of contamination, we estimated the fluctuation patterns of ¹³⁷Cs concentration in seawater, groundwater level, and discharge from the channels using the Antecedent Precipitation Index (Rw) method.
The results indicated that the fluctuation in seawater collected near the 1-4 Units had strong agreement with the 3 day half-life of Rw. The half-life is shorter than that estimated by groundwater level (7 to 30 day). Therefore, the ¹³⁷Cs concentration in seawater was influenced by relatively faster runoff than the deep groundwater flow. We also made the spatial distribution map of ¹³⁷Cs concentration in seawater to determine the sources of contamination. It showed that the ¹³⁷Cs contaminated area was the highest at “south- inside the intake of 1-4 Units” where the outlets of the K and BC discharge channels are located. In particular, the concentration of ¹³⁷Cs in the channel K was found to correlate with the concentration of ¹³⁷Cs in seawater near the 1-4 Units (average of R² = 0.5). These results indicate that the concentration of ¹³⁷Cs in seawater inside the FDNPP port can be estimated by the Rw method and that the source of the contamination could be determined using the half-life.

How to cite: Sato, H. and Onda, Y.: Determining sources of the 137Cs concentration in seawater at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant using Antecedent Precipitation Index, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9055, 2022.

European seas such as, Baltic, North, and Norwegian Seas are mostly affected areas by the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant (CNPP) in 1986. Since Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) is located on the coast of the North Pacific Ocean in east Japan, its accident resulted in the release of large amounts of radiocesium to the surrounding coastal marine environment (i.e. the waters off Fukushima and neighboring prefectures). The temporal change of radiocaesium concentration in seawater after both accidents was largely dependent on their submarine topography: The Baltic Sea is a semi-closed basin, while Norwegian and North Seas, and the waters off Fukushima and neighboring prefectures is directly connected to open-water. Although concentration of radioacesium (¹³⁷Cs) in the surface water of the Baltic Sea (central part) continuously decreased, the values in 1996, ten years after the accident, were even higher than pre-accident level in 1985. On the other hand, in the waters off Fukushima and neighboring prefectures ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in 2020, nine years after the accident, are approaching the pre-accident levels of 2010. The quick decrease is attributable to the intrusion or mixing of water masses with low ¹³⁷Cs.

How to cite: Takata, H.: Temporal trends of radio-cesium concentration in the marine environment after the Chernobyl and Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accidents, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10644, 2022.

For the Fukushima region in Japan, the large-scale decontamination in the catchments needed to require more attention because of their possible consequence in altering particulate Cs-137 flux from the terrestrial environment to the ocean. Here, combining the high-resolution satellite dataset and concurrent river monitoring results, we quantitively assess the impacts of land cover changes in large-area decontaminated regions on river suspended sediment (SS) and particulate Cs-137 dynamics during 2013-2018. We find that the decontaminated regions’ erodibility dramatically enhanced during the decontamination stage but rapidly declined in the subsequent natural-restoration stage. River SS dynamics show linear response to these land cover changes, where annual SS load (normalized by water discharge) at the end of decontamination increased by over 300% than pre-decontamination and decreased about 48% at the beginning of natural restoration. Fluctuations in particulate Cs-137 concentrations well reflect the process of sediment source alternation due to land cover changes in decontaminated regions. The “Fukushima decontamination experiment” can reveal the dramatic impact of decontamination-natural restoration processes, which highlights the need for quantitatively assessing human impacts on land use and resultant alternation in sediment transfer patterns in large scale catchments. 

How to cite: Onda, Y., Bin, F., Wakiyama, Y., Taniguchi, K., Hashimoto, A., and Zhang, Y.: Decontamination and subsequent natural restoration processes impact on terrestrial systems in Niida River Catchment in Fukushima, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10713, 2022.

Radiocesium deposited in the forest canopy is transferred to the forest floor by rainwater and　litterfall. Among them, stemflow likely increases the radiocesium inventory by concentrating rainwater around the trunk. However, the effects of stemflow on the influx of radiocesium into forest soil have not been evaluated quantitatively. In this study, the fluxes of rainwater via stemflow, throughfall, and soil infiltration water were observed. The concentration of dissolved ¹³⁷Cs was measured in a cedar forest in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. Soil infiltration water was collected at 5 cm and 20 cm depths at the distant point from the tree trunk (Bt), and the base of the tree trunk (Rd), where the influence of stemflow was strong. The observations were conducted during the period from September 2019 to November 2021. During the observation period, an experiment was conducted to intercept the inflow of rainwater via the throughfall or stemflow, and the change in soil infiltration water was observed. The observation results showed that the infiltration flux of radiocesium into the forest soil was significantly higher at the Rd site and about three times larger than at the Bt site. Particularly at the 20 cm depth at the Rd site, the soil infiltration water flux increased with the stemflow. The stemflow exclusion resulted in the dcrease of radiocesium flux by about 70% at all depths at the Rd site. These results suggest that the stemflow increases the input of radiocesium to the base of the tree trunk and facilitates its transfer to the deeper soil layers.

How to cite: Kato, H., Iida, H., Shinozuka, T., Niwano, Y., and Onda, Y.: Effects of stemflow on radiocesium infiltration into the forest soil, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10817, 2022.

Radioactive cesium (¹³⁷Cs) is distributed in the global ocean due to global fallout by atmospheric nuclear weapons tests, releases from reprocessing plants in Europe, and supplied to the ocean by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F NPP) accident. In order to detect future contamination by radionuclides, it is necessary to understand the global distribution of radionuclides such as ¹³⁷Cs. For this purpose, observed data have been summarized in a historical database (MARIS) by IAEA. The spatio-temporal density of the observations varies widely, therefore simulation by an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) can be helpful in the interpretation of these observations.

In order to clarify the behavior of ¹³⁷Cs in the global ocean, OGSM simulations were conducted. Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2) of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) is employed. The horizontal resolution is 1.125 degree of longitude, and from 0.28 degree to 0.54 degree of latitude. There are 60 vertical levels with a minimum spacing of 10 m near the ocean surface, and increased spacing with depth to a maximum of 250 m. The simulated period was from 1945 to 2030 with the circulation forced by repeating (“Normal Year”) atmospheric conditions. As input sources of ¹³⁷Cs to the model, global fallout from atmospheric nuclear tests, releases from reprocessing plants in Europe, and input from the 1F NPP accident were considered. It was assumed that the input conditions in 2020 would continue after 2020.

The simulated ¹³⁷Cs activity agrees well with the observed data in the database, especially in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans where the observation density is large. Since ¹³⁷Cs undergoes radioactive decay with a half-life of 30 years, the inventory for each basin is the difference between the decay corrected cumulative input and flux. In the North Pacific, the inventory reached its maximum in 1966 due to the global fallout by atmospheric nuclear weapons tests. Fluxes from the North Pacific to the Indian Ocean, Arctic Ocean, and Central Pacific were positive, and the North Pacific was a source of supply for other ocean basins. The 1F NPP accident caused a 20% increase in the inventory in 2011. In the North Atlantic, the inventory reaches its maximum in the late 1970s, due to the releases from the reprocessing plant. The outflow flux from the North Atlantic to the Greenland Sea is larger than the other fluxes and is a source of supply to other ocean basins. After 2000, the inflow flux to the North Pacific from the Labrador Sea and the South Atlantic is larger than the outflow flux.

The time series of ¹³⁷Cs inventory in each ocean basin and the fluxes among ocean basins were quantitatively analyzed by OGCM simulations, and the predictions for the next 10 years were made.  The ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations by global fallout can be detected in the global ocean after 2030. The OGCM simulations will be useful in planning future observations to fill the gaps in the database.

How to cite: Tsumune, D., Bryan, F., Lindsay, K., Misumi, K., Tsubono, T., and Aoyama, M.: Estimation of 137Cs inventories in each ocean basin by a global ocean general circulation model for the global database interpolation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11022, 2022.

Considerable amounts of ¹⁴C in the nuclear reactor are generated by neutrons. It accumulates in reactor components, coolant, and cleaning systems, and partly is released into the environment as gaseous releases and as liquid effluents. Two RBMK-1500 type reactors were exploited at Ignalina NPP (Lithuania) 1983-2009. Releases from NPP radiocarbon accumulated in local biosphere by photosynthesis, including terrestrial and aquatic media, as INPP used Lake Drūkšiai as a cooling pond

Temporal variation of ¹⁴C in lake ecosystem was examined by analyzing measured radiocarbon concentration of the organic compounds (Alkali soluble-AS) and alkali insoluble-AIS) derived from the layers of the Drūkšiai lake bottom sediments. The lake sediment cores were sampled in 2013 and 2019, sliced to 1 cm layers and ¹⁴C concentration was measured of every layer. AS and AIS organic fractions of sediment samples were extracted by using the acid-base-acid method.

Tree ring cores were collected from Pinus Sylvestris pines around the Ignalina NPP site at different directions and distances. Cellulose extraction was performed with BABAB (base-acid-base-acid-bleach) procedure, and all samples were graphitized and measured by a single state accelerator mass spectrometry at Vilnius Radiocarbon facility. Tree rings ¹⁴C concentration analysis provides atmospheric radiocarbon concentration in locations around the nuclear object. This analysis provides an opportunity to evaluate the impact of a nuclear object on water and terrestrial ecosystems.

The results showed a pronounced increase of ¹⁴C above background up to 17.8 pMC in the tree rings during INPP exploitation as well during decommission (since 2010) periods. According to the recorded data in 2004-2017 of the local Ignalina NPP meteorological station, the prevailing wind direction was towards the North and East during warm and light time periods. The radiocarbon released from the INPP stack dilutes when it travels in a downwind direction from the INPP. However, even 6.6 km away from the INPP, the impact of the power plant is still clearly visible. By using our created Gaussian dispersion model, the estimated annual emissions of ¹⁴C activity from the Ignalina NPP to the air vary from year to year. When only the 1st INPP reactor Unit was operating in 1985-1987, average emissions were 1.2 TBq/year. Emissions almost doubled to 2.1 TBq/year in 1988, when the 2^nd Unit became operational. Later, emission levels increased. It could be explained by the large amount of ¹⁴C accumulating in the graphite of the RBMK reactor and its gradual release.

¹⁴C concentration profile analysis of the lake bottom sediments core revealed a significant impact of the Ignalina NPP on the Drūkšiai lake ecosystem. An increase of ¹⁴C concentration in the layers of bottom sediments by 80 pMC in the AS fraction and only by 9 pMC in the AIS fraction was observed, corresponding to the period about years of 1998-2003. The maximum peak in AS of 189 pMC was reached approximately in 2001, followed by gradual lake recovery. This radiocarbon peak in the lake represents a large single one-time pollution release. The critical period was in 2000s when maintenance works of the reactors were performed.

How to cite: Maceika, E., Barisevičiūtė, R., Juodis, L., Pabedinskas, A., Ežerinskis, Ž., Šapolaitė, J., Butkus, L., and Remeikis, V.: Retrospective assessment of 14C aquatic and atmospheric releases from Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant due to exploitation of two RBMK-1500 type reactors, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11502, 2022.

All radiological measurements acquired from airborne detectors suffer from the issues of geometrical signal dilution, signal attenuation and a complex interaction of the effective sampling area of the detector system with the 3D structure of the surrounding environment. Understanding and accounting for these variables is essential in recovering accurate dose rate maps that can help protect responding workforces in radiologically contaminated environments.

Two types of terrain-cognisant methods of improving source localisation and the contrast of airborne radiation maps are presented in this work, comprising of ‘Point Cloud Constrained 3D Backprojection’ and ‘Point Cloud Constrained Randomised Kaczmarz Inversion’. Each algorithm uses a combination of airborne gamma-spectrometry and 3D scene information collected by UAS platforms and have been applied to data collected with lightweight, simple (non-imaging) detector payloads at numerous locations across the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ).

Common to both the algorithms is the projection of the photopeak intensity onto a point cloud representation of the environment, taking into account the position and orientation of the UAS in addition to the 3D response of the spectrometer. The 3D Backprojection method can be considered a relatively fast method of mapping of through proximity, in which the measured photopeak intensity is split over the point cloud according to the above factors. It is an additive technique, with each measurement increasing the overall magnitude of the radiation field assigned to the survey area, meaning that more measurements continues to increase the total radiation of the site. The total measured intensity of the solution is then normalised according to the time spent in proximity to each point in the scene, determined by splitting and projecting the nominal measurement time at each survey point over the point cloud according to the distance from the survey position. Thus accounting for sampling biases during the survey.

The inversion approach adapts algorithms routinely used in medical imaging for the unconstrained world in which the detector is no longer completely surrounding the subject/target. A forward projection model, based on the contribution of distant point sources to the detector intensity, is used to determine the relationship between the full set of measurements and the 3D scene. This results in a hypercube of linear equations where it is assumed every point in the scene contributes to the measured intensity. The algorithm randomly adds measurements from within the aerial set and back-projects this onto the point cloud, with the initial state of the solution set to emit no radiation. After a given number of iterations, the fit of the current solution to the original measurements is assessed though a least squares method and updated when this produces a fit better than the current best estimate. This continues to happen until a minimum value is reached before the divergence of the system, representing the most confident solution. Based on examples from both simulations and real world data, the improvement in contrast of airborne maps using this inversion method can make them equivalent to ground-based surveys, even when operating at 20 m AGL and above.

How to cite: Connor, D., Megson-Smith, D., Wood, K., Mackenzie, R., Connolly, E., White, S., Russell-Pavier, F., Ryan-Tucker, M., Martin, P., Verbelen, Y., Richardson, T., Smith, N., and Scott, T.: Mapping of Post-Disaster Environments using 3D Backprojection and Iterative Inversion Methods Optimised for Limited-Pixel Gamma Spectrometers on Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UAS)., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11571, 2022.

Most of the territory of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ) is covered by forest. Forest of CEZ have accumulated a significant part of the radioactive release and for many years have served as a barrier to the non spreading of the radionuclide contamination outside the CEZ.

According to the classification of wildfire danger, the forests of CEZ belong to high, above average and medium classes, making cases of wildfires as quite common.

Poor, sod-podzolic soils of Ukrainian Polesye contribute to the entry the activity of ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs in plant biomass. During wildfires some of the radionuclides contained in combustion products of biomass are emitted into the atmosphere. Biologically important radionuclides such as ⁹⁰Sr, ¹³⁷Cs, plutonium isotopes and ²⁴¹Am bound to fine aerosols - combustion products - can be transported with atmospheric flows over the long range, causing secondary radioactive fallout and forming additional inhalation dose loads on the population.

Lack of the actual information on the source term (rate of emission of radionuclides) does not allow reliable modeling of the radiological impact of wildfires. To address this issue, we have proposed a methodology that allows for operational assessments of the dynamics of radionuclide emissions into the atmosphere from wildfires in the CEZ.

The basic parameters for the calculations are

• cartographic data on the density of radionuclide contamination of the territory of the CEZ;
• classification of the territory of the CEZ according to the distributive features of forests and meadows;
• classification of CEZ forests according to taxa characteristics to estimate amount of stored fuel biomass (kg/m²);
• experimental data on the transfer of radionuclides from soil to the main components of biomass for the calculation of radionuclide inventory in fuel biomass (Bq/m²). Thus, for meadows the main fuel component is grass turf, while for forest these are litter, wood, bark and pine needles.
• experimental data on emission factors of radionuclides from fuel biomass.

Implementation of the proposed algorithm in the form of GIS application makes it possible to assess the dynamics of radionuclide emission into the atmosphere by delineation the fire areas on the CEZ map. The NASA WorldView interactive mapping web application can be used to estimate the temporal and spatial characteristics of the wildfire while it is being developed. The contouring of the area affected by fire is carried out according to the analysis of the cluster of thermal points. Also, operational contouring of wildfire can be carried out using data delivered from unmanned aerial vehicles.

The application of the proposed algorithm for the analysis of the dynamics of ¹³⁷Cs emissions into the atmosphere from the April 2020 wildfire showed a good agreement with the data reported by various authors who used the method of inverse simulation. Improving the accuracy of calculations according to the proposed algorithm can be done by rectifying radionuclide emission factors and taking into account fire intensity data, which in turn can affect both the radionuclide emission factor and the degree of burnout of plant biomass.

How to cite: Protsak, V., Laptev, G., Voitsekhovych, O., Hinchuk, T., and Korychenskyi, K.: Methodology for estimating the emission of radionuclides into the atmosphere from wildfires in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11620, 2022.

Human activities such as mining and processing of naturally occurring radioactive materials have a potential to result in enhanced radioactivity levels in the environment. In South Africa, there has been extensive mining of gold and uranium which produced large mine tailings dams that are highly concentrated with radioactive elements. The purpose of this study was to carry out a preliminary survey on a large scale to assess the activity concentrations of ²³⁸U, ²³²Th and ⁴⁰K in mine tailings, soils and outcropping rocks in the West Rand District in South Africa. This was done to better understand the impact of the abandoned mine tailings on the surrounding soil. This study employed in-situ gamma spectrometry technique to measure the activity concentrations of ²³⁸U, ²³²Th and ⁴⁰K. The portable BGO SUPER-SPEC (RS-230) spectrometer, with a 6.3 cubic inches Bismuth Germanate Oxide (BGO) detector was used for in-situ measurements. In mine tailings the activity concentrations for ²³⁸U, ²³²Th and ⁴⁰K were found to range from 209.95 to 2578.68 Bq/kg, 19.49 to 108.00 Bq/kg and 31.30 to 626.00 Bq/kg, respectively. In surface soil, the activity concentration of ²³⁸U for all measurements ranged between 12.35 and 941.07 Bq/kg, with an average value of 59.15 Bq/kg. ²³²Th levels ranged between 12.59 and 78.36 Bq/kg, with an average of 34.91 Bq/kg. For ⁴⁰K the average activity concentration was found to be 245.64 Bq/kg, in a range of 31.30 - 1345.90 Bq/kg. For the rock samples analyzed, average activity concentrations were 32.97 Bq/kg, 32.26 Bq/kg and 351.52 Bg/kg for ²³⁸U, ²³²Th and ⁴⁰K, respectively. The results indicate that higher radioactivity levels are found in mine tailings than in rocks and soils. ²³⁸U was found to contribute significantly to the overall activity concentration in tailings dams as compared to ²³²Th and ⁴⁰K. It has been observed that the mine tailings have a potential to impact on the activity concentration of ²³⁸U in soil in the immediate vicinity. However, on a regional scale it was found that the radioactivity levels in surface soil mainly depend on the radioelement concentration of the underlying rocks. The contamination is only confined to areas where mine tailings materials are washed off and deposited on surface soils in close proximity to tailings sources. This serves as an indication that the migration of uranium from tailings dams is localized and occurs within short distances. It is recommended that further radiological monitoring be conducted in areas found to have elevated concentration of uranium-238.

Keywords-In-situ gamma-ray spectrometry, Mine tailings, Radioactivity, Soil.

How to cite: Moshupya, P., Abiye, T., and Korir, I.: In-situ measurements of natural radioactivity levels in the gold mine tailings dams of the West Rand District, South Africa., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11669, 2022.

Due to the combined effect of human-driven depletion and anthropogenic climate change, groundwater storage is decreasing across the globe. This trend will potentially have an adverse impact on future human socio-economic development, by increasing the frequency and duration of both hydrological and socio-economic droughts as well as generating inter-sectoral competition for limited water resources.

Large-scale modelling studies on changes in groundwater availability can be separated into two big families. First, hydrological impact models actively consider water usage across sectors but ignore land-atmosphere interactions by design. Second, Earth System Models consider two-way interactions between climate and groundwater resources, but almost never consider the anthropogenic water resource depletion, except in some cases for irrigation.

The goal of this study is to connect the expertise of these two families by implementing domestic and industrial water usage in the Community Earth System Model version 2. Using land-atmosphere coupled simulations, we will revisit previously computed trends in future groundwater availability by simultaneously accounting for climate change and anthropogenic water resource usage.

How to cite: Taranu, I. S. and Thiery, W.: Implementing sectoral water usage in the Community Earth System Model for projecting future water resource availability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-596, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-596, 2022.

Irrigated agriculture sustains more than 40% of global food production and uses up to 90 % of the world’s water resources. Water scarcity for the irrigation water use sector is a common problem, which may be driven by both water shortages and increased salinity levels. Limited studies however considered salinity issues in water scarcity assessment. We here developed a salinity-inclusive water scarcity framework for the irrigation sector, accounting for crop-specific irrigation water demands and salinity tolerance and its relation to water availability and salinity levels of both surface and groundwater resources. We assess temporal and spatial variation of water scarcity in agricultural river basins of the Central Valley (California) and the Murray Darling Basin (Australia), which are important food bowl regions. Our results show that including salinity and crop-specific salinity tolerances leads to very different water scarcity levels, compared to water scarcity approaches based on water quantity only, particularly at local scales. Further, our results from the Central Valley region highlights that severe water scarcity can be strongly alleviated by conjunctive groundwater use, to dilute and lower salinity levels below crop specific tolerance values in many sub-basins. However, groundwater resources needed for dilution frequently exceed renewable groundwater rates in this region, posing additional risks for groundwater depletion. Taken together, through capturing these dynamics, our water scarcity framework can support local-regional water management and provide a useful tool for sustainable water use and assessing the impact of agricultural practices, such as crop choices, on water scarcity levels.

How to cite: Thorslund, J., Bierkens, M. F. P., Scaini, A., Sutanudjaja, E. H., and van Vliet, M. T. H.: Salinity-inclusive water scarcity: examples from food bowl regions of the US and Australia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-898, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-898, 2022.

Quantification of the Water Losses (WL) components in Water Distribution Networks (WDNs) is a vital task towards their reduction. However, current WL estimation methods rely on semi-empirical approaches with high uncertainty levels, which usually lead to inaccurate estimates of the lost volume. Here, we compare the probabilistic Minimum Night Flow (MNF) estimation method introduced by Serafeim et al. (2021) to the Water Balance components analysis, introduced by the International Water Association (IWA). The strong point of the Serafeim et al. (2021) approach is that it uses statistical metrics to filter out noise effects in the flow timeseries used for MNF estimation, leading to more accurate estimation of the low flows during night hours. The effectiveness of the applied methods is tested via a large-scale, real world application to the 4 largest Pressure Management Areas (PMAs) of the WDN of the city of Patras, the third largest city in Greece (see Serafeim at al., 2022). Although methodologically different, the two approaches lead to very similar results, substantiating the robustness of the Serafeim at al. (2021) approach which allows for reliable confidence interval estimation of the observed Minimum Night Flows, making it particularly suited for engineering applications.

Acknowledgements

The research work was supported by the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (H.F.R.I.) under the “First Call for H.F.R.I. Research Projects to support Faculty members and Researchers and the procurement of high-cost research equipment grant” (Project Number: 1162).

References

Serafeim, A.V., Kokosalakis, G., Deidda, R., Karathanasi I. and Langousis A (2021) Probabilistic estimation of minimum night flow in water distribution networks: large-scale application to the city of Patras in western Greece, Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk. Assess., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02042-9

Serafeim, A.V.; Kokosalakis, G.; Deidda, R.; Karathanasi, I.; Langousis, A. (2022) Probabilistic Minimum Night Flow Estimation in Water Distribution Networks and Comparison with the Water Balance Approach: Large-Scale Application to the City Center of Patras in Western Greece, Water, 14, 98, https://doi.org/10.3390/w14010098

How to cite: Langousis, A., Serafeim, A., Kokosalakis, G., Deidda, R., and Karathanasi, I.: Probabilistic water losses estimation in water distribution networks and comparison with the top down - water balance approach: A large-scale application to the city center of Patras in western Greece, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1974, 2022.

Abstract

Quantification of the leakage volume in pressure management areas (PMAs) is a vital task for water agencies’ financial viability. However, currently, there is no rigorous approach for their parametric modeling on the basis of networks’ specific characteristics and inlet/operating pressures. To bridge this gap, the current work focuses on the development of a probabilistic framework for minimum night flow (MNF) estimation in water distribution networks that: 1) parametrizes the MNF as a function of the network’s specific characteristics, and 2) parametrically describes water losses in individual PMAs as a function of the inlet/operating pressures. MNF estimates are obtained using the robust, non-parametric, probabilistic minimum night flow (MNF) estimation methodology developed and validated by Serafeim et al. (2021 and 2022), which allows for confidence interval estimation of the observed MNFs. The effectiveness of the developed model is tested in a large-scale real world application to the water distribution network of the city of Patras in western Greece, which serves approximately 200,000 consumers with more than 700 km of pipeline. The developed framework is validated through flow-pressure tests conducted by the Municipal Enterprise of Water Supply and Sewerage of the City of Patras to 78 PMAs of the network, indicating that the developed framework can be effectively used to improve water loss estimation and flow-pressure management in a morphologically and operationally diverse set of PMAs.

Acknowledgements

The research work was supported by the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (H.F.R.I.) under the “First Call for H.F.R.I. Research Projects to support Faculty members and Researchers and the procurement of high-cost research equipment grant” (Project Number: 1162).

References

Serafeim, A.V., Kokosalakis, G., Deidda, R., Karathanasi I. and Langousis A (2021) Probabilistic estimation of minimum night flow in water distribution networks: large-scale application to the city of Patras in western Greece, Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk. Assess., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02042-9

Serafeim, A.V.; Kokosalakis, G.; Deidda, R.; Karathanasi, I.; Langousis, A. (2022) Probabilistic Minimum Night Flow Estimation in Water Distribution Networks and Comparison with the Water Balance Approach: Large-Scale Application to the City Center of Patras in Western Greece, Water, 14, 98, https://doi.org/10.3390/w14010098

How to cite: Serafeim, A. V., Kokosalakis, G., Deidda, R., Karathanasi, I., and Langousis, A.: Parametric model for probabilistic estimation of water losses in water distribution networks: A large scale real world application to the city of Patras in western Greece, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2855, 2022.

The extreme events increasingly present in the Pacific (El Nino / La Nina phenomena) have significant consequences on island territories. The effect of climate change and drought episodes is therefore a central concern in many Pacific islands like Vanuatu, Wallis-and-Futuna, French Polynesia, etc. The intense drought events have undeniable impacts on biodiversity, agricultural crops and water resource, as was the case in 2019 for New Caledonia. In particular, projections in New Caledonia count on a possible increase in temperatures of 3°C and a water deficit of 20% in 2100 with longer and more intense drought episodes and an even greater west coast/east coast disparity (Dutheil, 2018). To date, the monitoring and anticipation of these drought episodes is done via meteorological measurements providing information on the rainfall deficit and not on the water stress of plants. In addition, the data are only available on a few measurement points and are not continuous over the territories.

In order to meet this need, a tool for monitoring environmental and agricultural drought using satellite images and meteorological data is being developed and validated in New Caledonia: Earth Observations for Drought Monitoring (EO4DM) project. This project is carried out in collaboration with Météo-France NC as a technical partner and the local Rural Agency as end user, and aims to provide a tool to help decision-making to institutions and management assistance for farmers. This solution will provide data constituting a singularly important source of information whose valuations and contributions can be multiple: agriculture, resource management (water), security (monitoring of risks linked to floods, fires), environment, etc.

To do so, various surface indices reflecting the state of the vegetation and certain soil properties such as humidity and temperature were estimated from different satellite sensors (MODIS, Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, ASCAT) in order to address different space scales from the field to regional scale. These indices were normalized over a relatively long period, allowing access to drought indicators: VHI (Vegetation Health Index; Kogan et al., 1997), VAI (Vegetation Anomaly Index; Amri et al., 2011), MAI (Moisture Anomaly Index; Amri et al., 2012) or TAI (Temperature Anomaly Index; Le Page and Zribi, 2019). Combined with in-situ meteorological products like SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index; McKee et al., 1993) and SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010), these indicators assess the intensity of drought episodes and estimate their severity over the entire territory.

How to cite: Neuhauser, M., Tilak, T., Point-Dumont, C., and Peltier, A.: Monitoring of agricultural drought from remote sensing products and in-situ meteorological data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3301, 2022.

Agriculture in West Africa is highly dependent on rainfall during the rainy seasons. Therefore, modifications in rainy season characteristics due to recent and future climate change have a direct impact on crop yields and production in the region. Consequently, stakeholders and decision-makers need reliable regional climate change information on rainy seasons in order to develop appropriate adaptation measures.

Regional Climate Models (RCMs) can provide information on climate change at high temporal and spatial resolution through dynamic downscaling of climate projections generated by Earth System Models (ESMs). In order to assess the performance of RCMs in simulating rainy seasons and their characteristics such as onset and cessation, length and total sum of rainfall, a thorough evaluation of RCMs is required.

The current study evaluates the performance of three different RCMs (REMO2015, RegCM4-7 and CCLM5-0-15) in simulating rainy seasons in West Africa using gridded observational data sets. For the assessment, we will use the ERA-INTERIM driven simulations of the RCMs from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) embedded in the WCRP Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for Africa with a spatial resolution of about 25 km.

How to cite: Weber, T., Ajayi, V. O., Gbode, I. E., Abel, D., Ziegler, K., Paeth, H., and Traore, S. B.: Performance of regional climate models in simulating rainy seasons in West Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5834, 2022.

Italy is the Europe’s leading rice producer, with over half of total European production. The main rice area is in the north-western part of the country (Lombardy and Piedmont regions). In this area, irrigation of rice has been traditionally carried out by flooding; the introduction of alternative water-saving irrigation strategies could reduce water consumption, but their overall environmental and economic sustainability, as well as their social acceptability, should be investigated.

An experimental platform was set up in the core of the Italian rice district (Lomellina, PV) to compare different rice irrigation management options: wet seeding and traditional flooding (WFL), dry seeding and delayed flooding (DFL), wet seeding and alternated wetting and drying (AWD). Six plots of about 20 m x 80 m each were set-up, with two replicates for each irrigation option. One out of two replicates for each option was instrumented with: water inflow and outflow meters, set of piezometers, set of tensiometers and water tubes for the irrigation management in the AWD plots. Proper agronomic practices were adopted for the three management options. Periodic measurements of crop biometric parameters (LAI, crop height, crop rooting depth) were performed and rice grain yields and quality (As and Cd in the grain) were determined. Data measured in the field, together with those provided by the farmer, concerning the agronomic inputs and the economic costs incurred for the three irrigation options, were used to assess their economic and environmental sustainability through a set of quantitative indicators. Finally, through interviews with rice growers of the area, barriers to the adoption of the AWD technique were assessed and ways of overcoming them identified. In order to support water management decisions and policies, data collected at the farm level are extrapolated to the irrigation district level through a semi-distributed agro-hydrological model, used to compare the overall irrigation efficiency achieved implementing AWD when compared to WFL.

How to cite: Gharsallah, O., Mayer, A., Romani, M., Ricciardelli, A., Caleca, S., Rienzner, M., Corsi, S., Ottaiano, G., Gilardi, G., and Facchi, A.: Environmental, economic and social sustainability of Alternate Wetting and Drying rice irrigation in Northern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7460, 2022.

Plain areas of Northern Italy are characterized by a strong agricultural and zootechnical vocation. In the Lombardy region, the total utilized agricultural area (UAA) is about 700,000 ha, 72% of which is irrigated. Globally, about one half of the UAA is cropped with maize, but in some provinces this crop reaches almost the totality of the UAA. Maize is typically irrigated by border irrigation; however, in the context of the climate change and of the increased competition for the use of water in the plain, it is crucial to optimize the use of this resource.

This study is aimed at demonstrating the applicability of Precision Irrigation approaches in a large farm located in the core of the maize basin of the Lombardy plain (La Canova farm, BS, Italy; http://lacanovasrl.it/). In the farm, irrigation is provided by center pivots and linear irrigation systems. Although sprinkler irrigation can reduce the applied irrigation volumes compared to border irrigation, at present, a uniform irrigation rate is provided at fixed time intervals without accounting for spatial heterogeneity of soil or crop development.

During the agricultural season 2021, in a 15 hectares surface cropped with maize under a center pivot the irrigation was applied following a variable-rate approach. The soil variability was investigated using an Electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensor; through the application of cluster analysis techniques to the EMI survey, four types of soils were detected and characterized through a traditional soil sampling. According to soil variability and pivot geometry, four management zones (MZ) were identified: two MZs were characterized prevalently by coarse soils while the other two by medium-fine soils. In one ‘coarse’ MZ and one ‘fine’ MZ the irrigation was managed with the support of soil probes installed at two depth, and by a physically based agro-hydrological model (SWAP, https://www.swap.alterra.nl/) fed with weather forecasts at 7 days (https://www.abacofarmer.com/). A MATLAB code was developed to run the whole modelling system. Irrigation in the other two MZs was applied by the farmer according to the farm’s typical management (about 25-30 mm every four days). In the MZs managed with Variable Rate irrigation, the model was used to identify the optimal water depth to be applied at each irrigation event, depending on the soil water balance computed for the following 5 days; in doing this, a 4-day turn and a minimum irrigation depth of 18-25 mm (as a function of the time of the season) were respected, since they were constraints imposed by the farmer. Despite the constraints, compared to the reference MZs, the approach adopted led to a water saving of about 20 and 25% for the ‘coarse’ and ‘fine’ MZs, respectively, without a loss of yield. In the next step, the approach adopted will be used to estimate the water and energy saving achievable at the farm scale.

How to cite: Facchi, A., Mayer, A., Ortuani, B., and Crema, A.: Can an agro-hydrological model improve the irrigation management of maize under a center pivot?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8093, 2022.

In the Anthropocene, human action and globalization are closely linked to the deterioration of natural habitats and water resources. Invasive aquatic weeds have been recognized as a major problem in watersheds worldwide due to their environmental impacts. This study focuses on the management of the Las Curias Reservoir in Cupey Puerto Rico in the Río Piedras watershed since the arrival of Salvinia molesta after Hurricane María in 2017.
Aquatic weed control consists of three methods: biological, mechanical, and chemical. Since December 2019, with the help of federal and local agencies, the University of Puerto Rico in Rio Piedras and a community-driven initiative led to the introduction of the Cyrtobagous salviniae in Las Curias Reservoir.  This insect is considered an effective biological control agent for S.  molesta.  Simultaneously, community members initiated a mechanical removal campaign using an aquatic harvester. Monthly sampling was conducted to measure physicochemical, biochemical, and biophysical variables in the reservoir in response to the reduction of S. molesta cover. In addition, monthly drone flights were conducted to create orthomosaic maps of the plant coverage over the water surface, as part of the monitoring of the ecosystem health and characterization. Probably the propagation of S. molesta occurred due to eutrophication after an increase in nutrient-rich sewage discharges from septic tanks and faulty sewage pump stations affected by power outages after Hurricane Maria. By 2019, the reservoir was completely covered with S. molesta. It is not until August 2020 that we noticed considerable changes in the reduction of plant density. Upon the reduction of S. molesta coverage, we found increases in the mean of water temperature (+3 Cِ°), dissolved oxygen (+1.4 mg/L), pH (+0.5) specific conductance (+118.3 µS/cm) and in light penetration (+255.6 μmo/m^²/s).  The water stored in Las Curias could become an invaluable source of raw water for public supply during future droughts, especially in the densely populated San Juan Metropolitan Area, where Las Curias is located. Therefore, its restoration is socially relevant and justifiable. 

How to cite: García López, X., Ortiz Zayas, J., Díaz, R., Castro Jiménez, A., and Abdelrahman López, M.: Limnological responses to active management of the invasive aquatic fern Salvinia molesta in Las Curias Reservoir, San Juan, Puerto Rico., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8392, 2022.

As the outflow velocity from a pipe crack increases with increasing hydraulic pressure, pressure management concepts have been widely applied to reduce water losses in the delivering and distribution parts of water networks. In this context, pressure reducing valves (PRVs) have been commonly used to regulate pressures and therefore reduce water losses, in both water supply and water distribution networks, by reducing the upstream pressure to a set outlet pressure (i.e. downstream of the PRV), usually referred to as set point.

As all types of mechanical equipment, PRVs exhibit malfunctions affecting pressure regulation, which can be defined as events when the outlet pressure does not match the set point. These events can be classified in two categories: a) high frequency fluctuations around the set point, and b) prolonged systematic deviations from the set point. Since PRV malfunctions result in systematic or random deviations of the outlet pressure from the set point, their detection can be approached in a statistical context.

In this study, we develop a novel framework for detection of PRV malfunctions in water supply and water distribution networks, which uses: a) the root mean squared error (RMSE) as a proper statistical metric for monitoring the performance of a PRV by detecting individual malfunctions (i.e. malfunction occurrences) in the high-resolution pressure time series, and b) the hazard function concept to identify a proper duration of sequential events from (a) to issue alerts.

The suggested methodology is implemented using pressure data at 1-min temporal resolution from pressure management area “Diagora” of the water distribution network of the city of Patras (the third largest city in Greece), for a 3 year period from 01 January 2017 to 31 December 2019. The obtained results show that the developed statistical approach effectively detects major PRV malfunctions (as reported by the Municipal Water Supply Company and Sewerage of Patras, DEYAP), allowing it to be used for operational purposes.

Acknowledgments:

This research is co‐financed by the European Regional Development Fund of the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship and Innovation, under the call RESEARCH – CREATE – INNOVATE (project code: T2EDK-4177).

How to cite: Perdios, A., Kokosalakis, G., Karathanasi, I., and Langousis, A.: Statistical methodology for PRV malfunction detection and alerting in Water Distribution Networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8409, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8409, 2022.

For most islands, there is very little published literature documenting the probability, frequency, severity,or consequences of climate change impacts, such as an decrease in precipitation. Some times, projections of future climate change impacts are limited by the lack of model skill in projecting the climatic variables that matter to small islands. The Azores are an archipelago formed by nine high volcanic islands, presenting a relatively small land area where precipitation is of orographic origin. Relatively projections up to the end of the 21st century, they were used for the same geographic region - the Azores region between 37 °N - 40°N and 32°W - 25°W - the results of the CMIP5 project for the RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios; trajectories describe four possible future climate scenarios, which depend on the amount of greenhouse gases emissions that may be emitted in the coming years. The four RCP scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5), correspond to four radiative forcing intervals for the year 2100, to pre-industrial values ​​(+2.6, +4.5, +6.0 and +8.5 W/m², respectively). Most of the CMIP5 climate data and projections used in this work they are freely available on the Climate Ex plorer portal (https://climexp.knmi.nl/) of the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut). Anomaly of the average annual precipitation for the Azores was calculated in the 1979-2019 period and its projections are estimated up to 2100, according to the RCP scenarios (Figure 1). In this case, the average variation calculated for the three scenarios for annual precipitation is -7.8 mm; in the case of the scenario more pessimistic (RCP 8.5), the models show for the Azores a decrease in average annual precipitation of about 9.8 mm/day until the end of the century, compared to the average of the last 30 years. According to the RCP4.5 scenario, a decrease is observed which is accentuated from the northwest to the southeast in the region under consideration, especially affecting the islands of the central and eastern groups. Of the calculations results for the average of the models an increase of the maximum number consecutive days with low rainfall (<1mm) from + 0.2 to 4.8 days / year until the year 2100. The demand for water affects basically four activities: the agriculture, energy production, industrial uses and consumption human. The projections found for the Azores of a decrease in precipitation are in line with other small island regions, such as the Caribbean and Mediterranean region. Thus, these regions become more vulnerable to social, economic and environmental impacts.

How to cite: Meirelles, M., Carvalho, F., Henriques, D., and Navarro, P.: Small Islands – Precipitation in the Future, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8898, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8898, 2022.

The Open Geospatial Consortium’s Disaster Pilot 2021 focused on turning earth observation and reporting data into decision ready indicators (DRI) for disaster response and management.  HSR.health as a Pilot participant  developed the recipe for, and produced a Medical Supply Needs Index that indicates what medical supplies, such as Personal Protective Equipment, are needed to respond to COVID-19 cases throughout a population. Medical Supply Needs Indices were calculated for areas within the Pilot focus regions and shared via a dashboard-style application. HSR.health and collaborators then set up an integrated demonstration showing the Medical Supply Needs Index updating in real-time as a result of data on the occurrence and impacts of multiple coincident natural disasters such as flooding, landslides, and pandemic spread. HSR.health also carried out work within the Pilot to apply and evaluate the draft Health Spatial Data Infrastructure (HSDI) model developed in the pre-Pilot OGC Health Spatial Data Infrastructure Concept Development Study. This included research into the availability of pandemic-related health related data in the US and in Peru, as well as investigation of the spatiotemporal granularity or resolution of observation data best suited to support indicators for community-level public health interventions.

How to cite: Churchyard, P., Gupta, A., and Lieberman, J.: Pandemic Medical Supply Needs with a Coincident Natural Disaster and an Analysis of COVID-19 Data Availability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10221, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10221, 2022.

Coastal cities in India houses nearly 100 million people and are evenly distributed across India’s 7516-kilometer coastline. These cities are important centers of socio-economic activities in the country and are some of the densely populated regions in the world. A number of studies recently have predicted that there is a risk of substantial portions of these cities’ areas being lost to the sea due to sea-level rise in the next few decades, since a major portion of these cities are at a near zero elevation from the mean sea level (M.S.L). Further, in the past few decades, major coastal cities in India have been repeatedly affected by recurrent extreme rainfall events and subsequent floodings. Several studies document that rapid change in the Indian monsoon, increased frequency in the formation of cyclones and the swift changes in the hydro-climatic regime in the Indian Ocean are the major contributors to the occurrence of these extreme precipitations events. While we can safely conclude that these events are likely to occur more frequently in the future, it is important to understand the factors that control and influence these events, comprehend how the cities are and will be affected, and develop feasible policy changes and mitigation action for effective governance. In this paper, we have taken the case of Chennai – an important coastal city located in the southern part of India that has been severely affected by extreme precipitation and subsequent flooding (notably the infamous 2015 Chennai floods) in the past few years, to study the influencing factors contributing to these events and the ground challenges faced by the government machinery in planning and managing these disasters effectively. Our findings indicate that there is a notable variation in the monsoon rainfall pattern in Chennai and the net annual rainfall in the city has increased significantly in the past decade (by ~15%). Further, we found that significant urban centers in the city, especially the regions that are at near zero elevation (± 5 meters above M.S.L) are more vulnerable to flooding, and the important contributing factors to the increased severity of the recent floodings include the lack of adequate stormwater drainage infrastructure and poor policy choice of converting natural surface water bodies (lakes and ponds) into towns during the past three to four decades. We also discuss the planning and execution of Chennai city’s mitigation action during the 2021 floods, analyze its success and shortcomings, and suggest sustainable and feasible policy changes and measures that can be adopted for better management of similar events in the future in other coastal cities as well.

How to cite: Mohanavelu, A. and Soundharajan, B.-S.: Increased frequency of urban floodings in coastal Indian cities caused by variation in monsoon rainfall: Influencing factors, challenges, and solutions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10483, 2022.

Agriculture plays a pivotal role in supporting the socioeconomic situation of millions of farmers in India, which is increasingly coming under threat due to climate change. In particular, the future changes in rainfall patterns has the potential to directly affect the irrigation water demands, thereby impacting water consumption, agricultural productivity, and influencing food security. For instance, the optimal sowing dates for crops may change according to the altered rainfall patterns. With this motivation, we studied the impacts of shifts in sowing periods in order to identify the optimal sowing dates for a particular crop. First, we collected daily temperature and rainfall data for India at a resolution of 0.25^o from different GCM models (EC-Earth 3 and EC-Earth 3 veg) under different SSP scenarios (SSP 126, SSP 245, SSP370, SSP585). Also, region-wise agricultural data such as crop acreage and sowing dates were collected for seven major crops - paddy, wheat, maize, groundnut, sugarcane, red gram, black gram, and soybean. Subsequently, we estimated the reference evapotranspiration using the modified Penman-Monteith method. The estimated reference evapotranspiration and rainfall data were incorporated into FAO’s CROPWAT model to calculate the irrigation water requirements (IWR) of the selected crops. The optimal IWR for each crop was selected by varying the sowing dates at fifteen-day intervals across the year (twenty-four dates for the year). Preliminary results indicate that there is considerable scope for water savings by shifting the sowing dates of staple crops to account for climate change impacts. These strategies may become vital for policymakers in the coming decades to reduce the stresses on water without endangering food security. Indeed, such strategies require the cooperation of various stakeholders for better implementation at multiple scales.

How to cite: Sharma, A. N., Gaddam, S. J., and Sampath, P. V.: Optimal sowing dates for major crops in India under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11068, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11068, 2022.

The world needs 70% more food by 2050, increasing the pressure on the available water resources. With the climate change threat approaching, the water stress will further be exacerbated that would adversely affect food security. In countries like India, with extensive cultivation of staple crops like paddy, there has been a rapid increase in the total water consumption. At the same time, cultivation of crops such as pulses and millets has not been sufficient to satisfy the nutritional requirements of India’s population. With the increased likelihood of droughts and floods due to the advent of climate change, it becomes imperative to achieve water, food, and nutritional security into the future. This study attempts to optimise cropping patterns to minimise future water requirement, while satisfying the nutritional and caloric requirements of future generations. We perform the analysis for the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, where agriculture depends predominantly on irrigation. To achieve this objective of optimization, we collected bias-corrected climate datasets from three General Circulation Models (BCC-CSM2-MR, INM-CM5-0, MPI-ESM1-2 HR) that include future rainfall and temperature information from 2021 to 2050. Further, we collected crop-wise farm-level data of five major crops in the state - paddy, sugarcane, groundnut, sorghum, and red gram. The irrigation water requirement (IWR) of the selected crops was estimated using FAO’s CROPWAT model under two different scenarios - SSP 245, SSP 585. Further, we developed an optimization model to obtain the optimal cropping pattern that minimises water consumption. Future food requirements in terms of protein and calorie demands and arable land available for cultivation were used as constraints to perform this optimization. Preliminary results indicate that shifting from water-intensive crops like sugarcane to relatively more nutritious crops like red gram and sorghum has the potential to significantly reduce water consumption, while also enhancing the nutritional security of the region. Interestingly, the optimization results indicated that the southern part of the study region required more interventions in terms of crop diversification as compared to the northern part. Such insights could help decision makers to devise holistic policies, enhancing the water-food security under different climate change scenarios. Further, this research could be extended to domains such as economics, ecology, and energy to achieve overall sustainability in the agricultural sector.

How to cite: Pasula, S. R., Gudem, S. S., Gaddam, S. J., and Sampath, P. V.: Optimizing cropping patterns under the influence of climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11145, 2022.

Due to their spread, abundance and potential impact on food security and human health, microplastics (MPs) are emerging global pollutants. Metropolitan areas are among the main sources of MPs (1 μm - 5 mm); indeed, about 80% of the MPs found in the oceans come from freshwaters. In particular, impervious surfaces runoff in urban areas results in the transport of large quantities of solid wastes, comprising MPs, to the superficial water bodies. Thus, the ecological state of urban streams represents a reliable indicator to evaluate the environmental impact of a city. In this study, we report data about MPs in stream sediments and waters of a minor urban stream, the Mugnone Creek (MC), which flows across the highly urbanized city of Florence (Italy) and discharges to the Arno River.

Several sites along the 17 km-long MC were chosen, including “greenfield” sites upstream of the Florence urban area, urban-impacted sites located along congested roads, and the MC outlet. The stream sediments were collected in June 2019, while stream waters were recovered via glass bottles twice a year (June and December) in 2019 and 2020, to account for seasonal variability. Stream discharge was simultaneously determined during water sampling to allow mass flow calculations of contaminants.

Water samples were filtered onto glass microfiber filters (ø 47 mm) and observed by HD digital stereomicroscope; a similar method was followed for sediments after a density separation step (NaCl saturated solution) and H₂O₂ digestion. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR) was used for identification and characterization of MPs. Microparticles classification was based on polymer type, shape and colour.

MPs concentration in sediments showed an increasing trend from the pre-urban site to the outlet. A maximum value (1.540 MPs/kg) was reached immediately after the Terzolle Creek confluence, which drains the large University Hospital District of Careggi. Fibers were the dominant shape class of polymers observed and blue/black items stand out among the colour classes. The highest concentrations of MPs in water samples were recorded during winter seasons (up to 16.000 items/m³), with a predominance of fibers and blue/black colours. Polymer classification by FTIR indicated the presence of (in order of abundance): PA (polyamide), PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate), SBR (butadiene-styrene rubber), PP (Polypropylene), blend PP+PE (PP+Polyethylene), PTFE (Polytetrafluoroethylene) and PU (Polyurethane). The black-SBR polymers likely related to tyre abrasion occurring during vehicles driving, since they were especially found on a site close to traffic-congested roads. In addition to synthetic particles, high concentrations of natural fibers (mainly cellulose) were found in waters at all sites. Up to 10⁹ synthetic particles are estimated to be discharged daily by MC to the Arno River during the winter season, a load much higher than creeks with similar urbanization context worldwide. Mass loads of natural fibers were of the same order of magnitude of MPs in every season.

Studies are in progress to elucidate the impact on local biota and to characterize the anthropic pressure on the Arno River, aiming to improve the knowledge about the environmental status of one of the main Italian river basins.

How to cite: Monnanni, A., Bicocchi, G., De Beni, E., Rimondi, V., Martellini, T., Chelazzi, D., Cincinelli, A., Venturi, S., Morelli, G., Lattanzi, P., and Costagliola, P.: The role of urban streams in the microplastics contamination scenario: the case study of the Mugnone Creek (Florence, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11578, 2022.

Due to climate change, extreme weather conditions such as droughts may have an increasing impact on the water demand and the productivity of irrigated agriculture. For the adaptation to changing climate conditions, knowledge about adequate irrigation control strategies and information, e.g., about future climate development and soil properties, is of great importance for the optimal operation of irrigation systems. We consider climate and soil variability within one probabilistic simulation-optimization framework for irrigation scheduling based on Monte Carlo simulations to support informed decisions. The framework implements optimizers for full, deficit, and supplemental irrigation strategies. We provide the  Matlab code as the open source Deficit Irrigation Toolbox (DIT). For this analysis, we apply DIT for preliminary test simulations for a global numerical deficit irrigation experiment (GDIE) which allows for the analysis of both the impact of the selected irrigation strategy on water productivity and the value of information about (i) different scheduling methods, (ii) climate development, and (iii) soil hydraulic properties. The first results show a strong dependency on the value of information about climate and soil for sites required for increasing water productivity in different climate regions. Moreover, DIT can enable and support the site-specific transformation of low efficient rainfed and irrigated systems achieving higher water productivity and food insecurity on a local scale.

How to cite: Schütze, N. and Dietz, A.: Comparison of the value of information for the management of deficit irrigation systems in different climate regions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11631, 2022.

Many of the estuaries and coastal areas in Europe are used for the cultivation and harvesting of bivalve mollusks. Mussel farming is strongly influenced by weather and environmental conditions. Several studies have shown that the sanitary conditions of shellfish are related to hydrological factors of rivers adjacent to the farming area, as rivers are the main routes of bacteriological contamination from the surface or sub-surface.

The "FORESHELL" project, funded by Costa Blu FLAG as part of the EMFF 2014-20 program of the Abruzzo Region, is carrying out a pilot initiative for the development of sanitary/weather-environmental predictive technological tools in order to improve efficiency and sustainability of the mussel farm located at the Giuliano Maritime District.

A specific sampling schedule is established before and after severe weather events to determine the E. coli
concentration in freshwater at the river mouths and in mussels/seawater in the farming site. At the same time, the hydrographic basins of the rivers close to the farm, Vibrata and Salinello, are constantly monitored trough the hydrological model (CHyM), to predict the occurrence of flow discharge peaks at mouth of the river. In addition, the satellites and the in-situ probe acquire environmental parameters such as sea water temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-a, sea currents and wave motion.

The web application for data visualization is under construction, as well as the early warning reports to the farmer. Furthermore, the growth of mussels is constantly monitored with biometric controls. The implementation of all phases of the FORESHELL project are proceeding according to the timeline in order to develop innovative tools useful for the management of mussel farming area.

How to cite: Tomassetti, B., Lombardi, A., Colaiuda, V., Conti, F., Mascilongo, G., Capoccioni, F., Pulcini, D., Di Francesco, G., Di Renzo, L., Profico, C., Ippoliti, C., Giansante, C., Ferri, N., and Di Giacinto, F.: FORESHELL Project: development of sanitary/weather-environmental predictive technological tools to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of shellfish farming., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12798, 2022.

Quantifying economic-social-environmental trade-offs and synergies of water-supply constraints: An application to the capital region of China

Dandan Zhao ^a,b, Junguo Liu^b,∗, Laixiang Sun^c,d,e,∗, Bin Ye ^b, Klaus Hubacek^f, Kuishuang Feng^c, Olli Varis^a

a Water & Development Research Group, Aalto University, PO Box 15200, 00076 Espoo, Finland

b School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, China

c Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, USA

d School of Finance and Management, SOAS, University of London, London, UK

e Institute of Blue and Green Development, Weihai Institute of Interdisciplinary Research, Shandong University, Weihai，

f Integrated Research of Energy, Environment and Society (IREES) , University of Groningen, the Netherlands

Sustainable water management is one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and is characterized by a high level of interdependencies with other SDGs from regional to global scales. Many water as[1]sessment studies are restricted to silo thinking, mostly focusing on water-related consequences, while lacking a quantification of trade-offs and synergies of economic, social, and environmental dimensions. To fill this knowledge gap, we propose a “nexus” approach that integrates a water supply constrained multi-regional input-output (mixed MRIO) model, scenario analysis, and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to quantify the trade-offs and synergies at the sectoral level for the capital region of China, i.e. the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. A total of 120 industrial transition scenarios includ[1]ing nine major industries with high water-intensities and water consumption under current development pathways were developed to facilitate the trade-off and synergy analysis between economic loss, social goals (here, the number of jobs) and environmental protection (with grey water footprint representing water pollution) triggered by water conservation measures. Our simulation results show that an imposi[1]tion of a tolerable water constraint (a necessary water consumption reduction for regional water stress level to move from severe to moderate) in the region would result in an average economic loss of 68.4 (± 16.0) billion Yuan (1 yuan ≈ 0.158 USD$ in 2012), or 1.3 % of regional GDP, a loss of 1.94 (± 0.18) million jobs (i.e. 3.5 % of the work force) and a reduction of 1.27 (± 0.40) billion m3 or about 2.2% of the regional grey water footprint. A tolerable water rationing in water-intensive sectors such as Agriculture, Food and tobacco processing, Electricity and heating power production and Chemicals would result in the lowest economic and job losses and the largest environmental benefits. Based on MCDA, we selected the 10 best scenarios with regard to their economic, social and environmental performances as references for guiding future water management and suggested industrial transition policies. This integrated approach could be a powerful policy support tool for 1) assessing trade-offs and synergies among multiple criteria and across multiple region-sectors under resource constraints; 2) quantifying the short-term supply-chain effects of different containment measures, and 3) facilitating more insightful evaluation of SDGs at the regional level so as to determine priorities for local governments and practitioners to achieve SDGs.

How to cite: Zhao, D., Liu, J., Sun, L., Ye, B., Hubacek, K., Feng, K., and Varis, O.: Quantifying economic-social-environmental trade-offs and synergies of water-supply constraints: An application to the capital region of China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1826, 2022.

Transitioning towards renewable heating is important to minimise the use of fossil fuels and abate carbon emissions, because heating accounts for 50% of the final energy consumption and 40% of carbon dioxide emissions globally. In the city of Amsterdam, the Netherlands, the aim is to transition towards renewable heating by 2040 and achieve carbon-neutral heating by 2050 through a neighbourhood-based approach. Such an approach entails that per neighbourhood a renewable heat solution is chosen  based on criteria such as carbon emissions, reliability, affordability and feasibility. The impacts of urban heating systems however goes beyond a neighbourhood, and take place on multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this presentation we discuss how a transition towards renewable heating systems can influence the water-energy-land nexus on multiple scales in three ways.

First, heating systems use water locally, but also indirectly through the water footprint embedded in energy carriers. We therefore present an analysis of the direct and indirect water use of heating pathways towards 2050. Second, heating systems which currently have the lowest carbon emissions, may not be the heat option with the lowest carbon emissions in the future. Current decisions for heat options can therefore create non-optimal solutions for minimising carbon emissions in the future. An optimization model to find a mix of heating systems to reduce committed emissions on a neighbourhood scale within a given time period for different scenarios for the insulation of buildings and the decarbonisation of electricity generation is therefore presented. At last, new norms and forms of organising neighbourhood-based heating systems may emerge, potentially creating or exacerbating social inequalities within and beyond the spatial boundaries of a neighbourhood. We therefore present the preliminary results of an analysis on energy justice based on in-depth interviews with urban professionals, dwellers and decision makers in Amsterdam. 

By presenting these three studies we aim to address the challenge of multi-scale impacts of transitioning towards renewable urban energy systems and show how energy-water-land nexus research can contribute to decision making for urban infrastructures.

How to cite: Kaandorp, C., van de Giesen, N., and Abraham, E.: Integrated assessment of renewable urban heating systems considering water use, committed emissions and energy justice, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3637, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3637, 2022.

Nature-based solutions (NbS) in brook catchments are considered as climate measures to adapt to hydro-meteorological extremes (storms, floods, droughts) and human-induced water demand. These NbS, often wetlands at multiple scales, cause land-use change (LUC), e.g., from cropland into wetland. Furthermore, LUC is also caused by other anthropogenic reasons (e.g., urbanization, channeling).

To improve this modelling by incorporating multi-scale spatial and temporal aspects, earlier studies modelled LUC and carbon pools, but did this without a regional focus on the impact of NbS. A system analysis of a brook catchment (Dutch Aa/Weerijs; 147 km²; S of Breda)  determines the spatio-temporal dynamics of LUC and its connection to carbon pools including the climate mitigation impact of NbS. The question arises if ready-to-use tools can help to connect the associated spatio-temporal datasets, to support professionals in regional development on rapid appraisal of carbon pool dynamics and impacts of NbS.

Firstly, in a pilot study, a system analysis of LUC and temporal carbon pool data has been developed on open access datasets (e.g., open topo and land registry). To get an outlook for 2050, 1960 was taken as a starting point because the brook catchment, including the brook itself, transformed just after 1960. To determine historic spatio-temporal dynamics of LUC and carbon pools, 2010 was chosen. Then, the landscape is predicted for 2050 in two scenarios: A Technical/physical scenario (in which a business-as-usual situation is considered) and a NbS/Wetlands scenario which focusses on NbS and in particular on wetlands. Four terrestrial carbon pools within seven land-use categories have been used. Land-use classification for 1960 and 2010 has been done with topographic maps and ArcGIS. Land-use prediction for 2050 has been done with a Land Change Modeler (TerrSet2020, ClarkLabs) with land-use from 1960 and 2010 as input data.

Secondly, the results of the pilot study have been validated by a field visit and regional professionals with expertise on LUC and carbon pools. As a third step, the updated, validated method has been applied to the whole Dutch catchment.

Findings indicate that 40 km² (≈ 27%) transformed between 1960 and 2010 with an impact on terrestrial carbon of + 0.5 Mton (≈ +50% change: 1 Mton in 1960 and 1.5 Mton in 2010). Findings for 2050 are:

• For the Technical-physical scenario a minor increase of terrestrial carbon. This will probably be explained by settlement expansion and by the increase areal of tree nursery. Tree nursery is especially a land-use category that emerges in the study area.
• For the NbS/Wetlands scenario, which emphasizes wetlands as nature-based solutions, a major increase of terrestrial carbon. This is explained by the increase of the areal of wetlands.

In this study we presented an approach where a combination of tools - a land change modeler and ArcGIS - can be used for a rapid assessment of mitigating effects on climate adaptation measures. This offers water professionals the opportunity to meet the many challenges on NbS in brook/river basins.

How to cite: Timmer, L., Van Wijnen, J., and Lansu, A.: Nature-based solutions in brook catchments: Modelling land-use change and its impact on terrestrial carbon pools (1960 – 2010 – 2050)., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4006, 2022.

The COP26 in Glasgow produced a Paris Agreement rulebook for international cooperation through carbon markets under Article 6. The intent of Article 6 is to enhance mitigation ambition by utilizing efficiency gains from trading and to cooperatively implement nationally determined contributions (NDCs) while avoiding double-counting. Such international emissions trading forms the bedrock to mobilize public and private sector investment flows to meet ambitious climate goals. At the same time, a growing body of research concludes that there are important links between mitigation and other societal objectives, such as those embodied in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Such local and national decisions which consider co-benefits and tradeoffs on some of the SDGs, in turn, are critical in deciding the aggregate success and consequences of global policies. This raises the question of how emissions trading may enable or hinder SDG attainment and how different countries might value their participation in such markets.

Countries view their own climate mitigation efforts through a more comprehensive lens than mere emissions reduction, and the links with societal outcomes would influence their consideration of comparability and participation in emissions trading markets. The success of these markets in enhancing ambition would depend on perceptions of the relationships of mitigation with local and regional societal goals around water, energy & land use. The degree of congruence between these relationships could influence future climate negotiations and market design.

In this paper, using a global integrated assessment model (GCAM: Global Change Analysis Model, ver. 5.4), we demonstrate that spatial and temporal distributions of the influence of Article 6 emissions markets on a subset of the broader SDGs may differ. We use a subset of sustainability metrics related to the energy-water-land nexus issues. Our analysis of these metrics tracks the interconnected nature of human and earth systems under different emission market designs for 10 key geographical regions (USA, EU, China, India, Japan, Brazil, Russia, Australia, Sub-Saharan Africa & Latin America) from 2030 to 2050, under a consistent integrated framework. This allows us to assess the local implications of emissions market design on energy access, prices & security, water consumption for different applications, food prices and forest area changes. We include the effects of redistribution and international financial transfers. We demonstrate these effects on the energy-water-land nexus for different national and global mitigation scenarios: the recently updated NDCs, a net zero emissions target in 2050 and a scenario which allows countries to reach net zero goals based on equity principles.    

Our results imply that global cooperation in markets can be altered if interactions between mitigation and local effects on the energy-water-land triad were accounted for. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the extent to which these distributions differ depends on market design and pricing of nature-based mitigation options.

Our analysis provides a foundation for assessing how global emission market schemes under Article 6 could be better understood in the local developmental contexts of energy, water & land use changes.

How to cite: George, M., Yu, S., Clarke, L., and Edmonds, J.: Global emission trade market design and local outcomes on the water-energy-land nexus, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6964, 2022.

With a growing population and a changing climate, competition for water resources in the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is expected to increase. In this study, competing water demands between food production, freshwater ecosystems and utilities (energy, industries and households) are quantified. The potential trade-offs and related impacts are elaborated for different SSP scenarios with the integrated assessment model IMAGE, which includes the global vegetation and hydrology model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL). Results for the 2045–2054 period are evaluated at the global scale and for a selection of 14 hotspot basins and coastal zones. On the global scale, we estimate that an additional 1.7 billion people could potentially face severe water shortage for electricity, industries and households if food production and environmental flows would be prioritized. Zooming in on the hotspots, this translates to up to 70% of the local population. Results furthermore show that up to 33% of river length in the hotspots risks not meeting environmental targets when prioritizing other water demands in the nexus. For local food production, up to 41% might be lost due to competing water demands. The potential trade-offs quantified in this study highlight the competition for resources in the WEF nexus, for which impacts are most notably felt at local scales. This emphasizes the need to simultaneously consider different dimensions of the nexus when developing scenarios that aim to achieve multiple sustainability targets.

How to cite: de Vos, L., Biemans, H., Doelman, J. C., Stehfest, E., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Trade-offs between water needs for food, utilities, and the environment—a nexus quantification at different scales, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9311, 2022.

Thermal power plants consume large amounts of water for electricity generation, mainly for cooling purposes that is later discharged back to riverine eco-systems. Increase in water temperature of the river systems and oceans is becoming the real environmental challenge to tackle, posed by the accelerated changes in climate change.  

In this study, new high-resolution data set of the water temperature projections of the main rivers in Europe due to climate change has been created using the new LISTEMP water resources model. We developed the new model called LISTEMP as a result of online coupling between the LISFLOOD open source hydrological model and newly developed water temperature module that runs on a 5 km grid and solved using a semi-Lagrangian numerical scheme. The results are based on 11 climate models which project current and future climate under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenario. We assess thermal plant's vulnerability to water temperature changes as climate change continues.  

We conclude that operations and maintenance of many thermal power plants could be at risk due to the water temperature change since their efficiency and performance depend mostly on a possibility to intake huge quantities of cooling water. Furthermore, we identified the hot spots in Europe where current power plants urge for technological change in order to be more resilient to climate. We also detect spots where plants are returning water at a temperature above the ecologically desirable ranges due to climate change. Knowledge acquired in this study and dataset contribute to multi-scale water-energy-food nexus and Common Fisheries Policy for conserving fish stocks with future climate.

How to cite: Adamovic, M., de Roo, A., Bisselink, B., and Grizzetti, B.: High-resolution water temperature impact assessment on thermal power plants operations in Europe and riverine ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10568, 2022.

IIASA’s Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM is used in various assessments to understand scenarios of socio-economic development within the energy and land systems across scales (global, country, basin). However, the representation of climate impacts and water systems within IAMs until now has been limited. The study goes a step forward on improving the representation of climate impacts and the capability to analyze interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land, and water resources in a dynamic system simultaneously. It uses spatially resolved representation of water systems to retain hydrological information without compromising computational complexity, and simplified water availability and key infrastructure assumptions mapped with the energy and land systems. The results from this study inform the required regional and sectoral investments pathways across mitigation and non-mitigation pathways. The results also highlight the importance of water as a constraint in energy and land-use decisions and implications of global responses to the limited water availability from water resources – renewable water, non-renewable groundwater, desalinated water.  

How to cite: Awais, M., Vinca, A., Byers, E., Fricko, O., Frank, S., Satoh, Y., Krey, V., and Riahi, K.: Integrating climate impacts across energy, water, land systems within a global framework, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10882, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10882, 2022.

As global water, energy, and food (WEF) demands are continuously increasing because of population growth, climate change, and the modernization of the human lifestyle, sustainable resource management is of prime importance. Societies have been struggling with the planning and management of WEF resources under changing population, climate, and ecosystem. Integrated resource management is essential to achieve optimal and sustainable WEF management as sector-centric (e.g. water-centric) management can lead to poor outcome. To that end, WEF nexus as a multi-centric approach has been introduced to emphasize interlinkages among WEF sectors. Such interlinkages need to be identified, quantified, and analyzed to facilitate sustainable WEF resources management.

This study aims to conduct a quantitative data analysis within the WEF nexus context to identify the interrelationships among WEF sectors and to understand how each sector interacts with other sectors in the Canadian Prairie provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba) individually, and as a whole over the period 1990-2020. Historical data used in this study are at annual temporal and provincial spatial resolution. A correlation-and-causality analysis has been conducted for different pairs of WEF sectors to measure the degree of relationships and to explore the cause-and-effects between each pair of sectors. The Multispatial Convergent Cross Mapping method, as a causal inference tool, has been used for identifying and assessing the causal relations. Determining the causal relationships among WEF sectors helps researchers identify critical components, of a large and complex system, for further investigation and modelling. It can also guide policy-makers for better allocation of resources.

Results showed that water has a stronger influence on food and energy than the other way around in the upstream province of Alberta. It was also found that food had more influence on energy than the other way around in the three prairie provinces. This study is a step forward toward a better understanding of the WEF nexus by using causal inference methods for tracking the strength of interactions to identify dominant sectors at both the provincial and regional scales. This can help build more parsimonious and efficient WEF nexus models for further simulation and scenario analysis.

How to cite: Saed, B., Elshorbagy, A., and Razavi, S.: Causality Analysis in the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in the Canadian Prairies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10955, 2022.

Coastal aquifers are usually the main source of water supply for irrigation, drinking
and industrial purposes in coastal regions. They are often subject to overexploitation and
consequent quantitative and qualitative degradation. The groundwater flow system of the Chiba
watershed in the CapBon peninsula (NE of Tunisia) is a typical case of an overexploited aquifer,
where a piezometric depression exceeding -10 m (a.m.s.l) appeared has developed over the two
last decades. Among the numerous remediation tentatives, the SMART-WATER project aimed
to propose a remediation plan based on a smart monitoring and water-energy nexus solution
through the installation of smart energy and water meters (SEWM). This technology aims to
optimize groundwater pumping at a set of selected representative farming systems in the
watershed. In this context, a first coupled surface water-groundwater flow model has been
developed and applied, coupled with energy nexus for the irrigated Chiba plain. The model is
implemented using a dynamic coupling between MODFLOW WEAP and LEAP in order to
assess the SEWM system efficiency in reducing aquifer exploitation and electrical energy
consumption at farm level. Multi-objective calibration of the model using river discharge and
GW level data has yielded accurate simulation of historical conditions, and resulted in better-
constrained parameters compared to using either data source alone. Model simulations show that
crop water demand cannot be met during droughts due to limited GW pumping capacity, and that
increased GW pumping has a relatively strong impact on GW levels due to the small specific
yield of the aquifer. Groundwater and energy models have also revealed that, under different
management and climatic scenarios, electric energy consumption and groundwater table decline
are intricately connected. Despite the short monitoring period and the intermittence of the
received data, SEWMs have shown a promising role in monitoring groundwater pumping and
engaging farmers in energy saving and aquifer sustainability.

How to cite: Khammessi, I., Brouyère, S., Aouissi, J., zghibi, A., Mirchi, A., Chkirbene, A., Merzougui, A., Msaddek, M. H., and Habaieb, H.: Integrated surface and groundwater resources management in a coastal aquifer (Cap BonPeninsula-NE of Tunisia), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11545, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11545, 2022.

Limiting end-of-century temperature rise to 1.5-2 degrees C will require achieving net-zero CO₂ emissions globally by 2050. Toward this goal, the Government of Colombia (GoC) is crafting a portfolio of actions (i.e., a mid-century strategy) that will not only substantially reduce emissions but also perform well across a range of societal objectives, despite the many uncertainties to which those actions will be exposed. In collaboration with a diverse array of stakeholders, here we seek to discover which actions hold promise for Colombia to achieve its climate and other societal objectives under a range of future uncertainties. The most effective mix of actions from Colombia’s perspective maybe those that create a solid near-term foundation for future ambitious action, and also those that avoid poor performance (across multiple societal objectives) under future uncertainty. This presentation will identify key elements of a robust decarbonization strategy for Colombia, and understand which sources of uncertainty may be critical to acknowledge and better understand.

It is not possible to assign meaningful probabilities to scenarios that consist of complex combinations of policy actions (i.e., levers) and uncertainties. However, it is possible to discover which scenarios, or combinations of levers and uncertainties, drive consequential outcomes across societal objectives. We use the “XLRM” conceptual organizing framework for defining this immense challenge and its possible solutions in Colombia, including: policy levers ("L"), such as renewable portfolio standards and electric vehicles deployment; future uncertainties ("X") such as socioeconomic change, technological change, and climatic change; and metrics ("M") for evaluating the relevant societal outcomes that result from the implementation of levers in uncertain future worlds, such as air quality, food security, water security, energy access, land use change, and economic development. To map policy levers to key outcomes (metrics) under uncertainty, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) v5.3 to explore the order of 10,000 GCAM scenarios reflecting diverse futures. The study focuses on a set of questions, and a methodological approach, that have immediate relevance to Colombia but also broader applications both within Latin America and beyond to the rest of the world.

How to cite: Zhao, M., Wild, T., Yarlagadda, B., Clarke, L., and Iyer, G.: Exploring Uncertainty Surrounding Deep Decarbonization Pathways: Application to Colombia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12998, 2022.

Wind and solar energy have emerged as the one of the most popular and successful sources of renewable energy in combating environmental degradation and climate change. Countries around the world are developing policy mechanisms for increasing the share of renewable energy technologies for fulfilling their energy demands. Both wind and solar have proved their potential as clean and efficient sources of energy generation. Therefore, transitioning into a sustainable future requires a shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy technologies. The main goal of this study is to compare wind and solar energy potential for different climate regions of Morocco, India and Kenya using standard methodologies.

In this study we have used the wind profile power law relationship for estimating the wind speed and power at 100 m level. We are analysing long term synoptic datasets from 2 to 4 synop stations in arid and humid regions of North India, Morocco and Kenya based on the Meteomanz standard meteorological database. Stability dependent power law profile approximations were used and comparisons made with ERA5 reanalysis data. Estimation of wind energy production for different continental wind generators were also provided. Using the connection between the wind speed and profile law we demonstrated how wind energy can vary using different values of power law exponents for different climatic regions.

Standard meteorological measurements (temperature, humidity and cloudiness) gave the opportunity for estimation of global irradiance which was also compared with the ERA5 dataset. Applicability of widely used direct and diffuse irradiance parameterizations for different climate regions were also investigated.

For instance, in Marrakech the six Pasquill-Gifford stability classes were determined by estimating the global solar irradiance for cloudy and clear sky conditions as well as the wind speed. Analysis of the data showed that windspeed at 10 m varied between 1.8 m/s in the early morning (UTC 06:00) to 3.5 m/s in the evening (UTC 18:00) while the windspeed at 100 m varied between 2.6 m/s and 5 m/s at the same time periods.  The estimated wind energy at 100 m level for rural areas was more than that of urban areas The wind energy at 100 m varied between 47.2 KW in the early morning (UTC 06:00) to 573 KW in the evening (UTC 18:00) for the rural areas while in urban areas the variation was between 83.8 KW to 670.5 KW during the same time periods. The annual average global solar radiation was found to be maximum during the afternoon with a value more than 970 W/m².

How to cite: Mendyl, A., Gandhi, A., Musyimi, P. K., Székely, B., and Weidinger, T.: Comparative analysis of wind and solar energy potential from differnet  climate regions, case studies  of Morocco , India and  Kenya, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-380, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-380, 2022.

We present an intercomparison of a one year of atmospheric simulations performed with a numerical atmospheric model system based on the WRF model with tall mast observations. We employ the nestinga capabilities of the WRF model to run up to high resolution large-eddy simulations (WRF-LES). The simulations  aim at describing the wind climatology and the turbulence characteristics at Østeild, Denmark. There, DTU established the National Test Site for Wind Turbines, where some of the largest wind turbines prototypes are under testing. We evaluate the goodness of the simulations using the WRF-LES system by comparison with high-quality mean wind and turbulence observations from a 250-m meteorological mast. The main objective of the work is to demostraste that the WRF model does not only provide long-term time series of wind speed and direction but also turbulence characteristics and parameters, which are needed for the evaluation of the site conditions, and turbine design and peformance.

The WRF-LES based simulations are performed using four nested telescopic domains centered at the Østerild mast position. The outermost and largest domain has a horizontal resolution of 6250 m, whereas the innermost and smallest domain a horizontal resolution of 50 m. By modeling at these scales, we intend to resolve most of the turbulent scales.  We run the two outermost domains in a traditional mesoscale fashion, which means we use a commmonly used planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme, whereas the two innermost domains are run in large-eddy simulation mode, i.e., without a PBL scheme. A complete year is simulated through parallel ten day long simulations. The output for the innermost domain is produced at the model grid point closest to Østerild every 12 s, whereas that of the other domains is produced every 10-min.

After computing the 10-min statistics for the full year on the model output of the innermost domain output and the 1-Hz data of the cup anemometers at Østerild that cover the range of the mast, we find very good agreement between the observed and simulated wind climatology. Turbulence estimates from both observations and simulations are also in good agreement, even though from the observations the site shows a wide variety of atmospheric stability and turbulence conditions. The turbulence intensity changes with wind speed in a similar way both in the simulations and the measurements. Our work shows that numerical models can be used as a tool to describe turbulent site conditions required, among others, for the efficient siting of wind turbines.

How to cite: Peña, A. and Mirocha, J.: Intercomparing WRF-LES based turbulence simulations with measurements from a 250-m tall meteorological mast, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-800, 2022.

 The transition towards decarbonized power systems requires to account for the impacts of the climate variability and climate change on renewable energy sources. With the growing share of wind and solar power in the European power system and their strong weather dependence, balancing the energy demand and supply becomes a great challenge. In this study, we assess energy compound events, defined as periods of simultanous low renewable production of wind and solar power, and high electricity demand. Using a country-based logistic regression approach, we model the binary occurrence of energy compound events and we examine the effects of meterological and weather regimes. Then, we quantify the meteorological conditions resulting in the highest probability of occurrence of energy compound events. We found that the combination of extremely low temperatures (below the 5th percentile) and low wind speed (below the 10th percentile), along with moderate-high solar radiation (above the 50th percentile), lead to the highest probability of occurrence of energy compound events over most European countires. Furthermore, we show that blocked weather regimes lead to the weather conditions that can have a major risk in the European power system. In particular, the Greenland blocking and the European blocking were associated with widespread energy compound events that affected multiple countries at the same time. Our results highlight the importance of the weather regimes that result in spatially compounding energy events, which might a major impact within a potential fully interconnected European grid.

How to cite: Otero, N., Martius, O., Allen, S., Bloomfield, H., and Schaefli, B.: Quantifing the influence of meteorological and large-scale atmopsheric drivers on energy compound events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1837, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1837, 2022.

Surface irradiance variability is present on many spatio-temporal scales, but most strongly on the scale of minutes to seconds due to low broken clouds. Fast and large fluctuations, or spatial heterogeneity, of irradiance affects solar energy production. In idealised settings, let alone in operational forecasts, the modelling of realistic fields of surface irradiance in the presence of clouds is challenging. It relies on realistic cloud fields, is computationally demanding due to the nature of 3-d radiative transfer models, and ultimately requires observations for validation. Dense spatial observation of irradiance on the scale of cloud shadows or solar energy parks are rare, however. Even 1-d time series are often not available at high enough resolution. 

In ongoing work, we provide those missing observations. I will present our gathering and analyses of new and detailed observations of surface irradiance to address knowledge gaps in our physical understanding and provide validation datasets for models. In 2021, we deployed a dense network of custom, low-cost radiometers at two field campaigns, FESSTVaL (Germany) and LIAISE (Spain), to observe spatial patterns of irradiance driven by clouds. The instruments are able to closely match expensive conventional instruments, and combined with skyview imagery, the spatial observations are directly linked to observed clouds. To complement these short term spatial data, long-term statistics of irradiance variability are derived from a 10-year 1 Hz resolution data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network station in Cabauw, the Netherlands. Distributions and typical spatio-temporal scales of cloud shadows and irradiance peaks can be related to cloud type and meteorological conditions. The gathering and study of these datasets will lead to a better understanding of the physics, help validate models, and ultimately improve our ability to accurately forecast irradiance variability at the small scales.

How to cite: Mol, W., Heusinkveld, B., Knap, W., and van Heerwaarden, C.: Climatology and Spatial Patterns of Cloud Shadows and Irradiance Peaks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2164, 2022.

January 2007 was a remarkably stormy period in Europe with impacts on societal infrastructure and implications for energy meteorology.  A series of cyclones tracked across the North Atlantic and into Europe during the two week period 8-22 January 2007.  For many parts of Europe, Storm Kyrill on 18 January 2007 was the most important of these for the infrastructure damage that it caused.  It had the highest European storm-related insurance losses in recent history.  The storm spawned a high intensity derecho that started in western Germany and travelled into eastern Europe. It was associated with severe convection, lightning, several tornadoes, and strong wind gusts.  The storm caused over 50 fatalities, widespread disruption of transport and power networks, and a lot of forest damage.   Storm Hanno on the 14 January 2007 was the second most severe storm of the period with serious impacts in Norway and southern Sweden.  Wind gusts reached the level of the 20-50 year event.  There were 6 fatalities in southern Sweden, some building damage, power cuts, and forest damage.  Storm Franz on 12 January 2007 caused the highest surge in the southern North Sea for January.  However, its flooding impact was reduced because the monthly cycle of spring and neap tides was near a minimum.  By contrast, astronomical tides were highest near the end of the period on 20-22 January 2007.  The highest absolute water levels for the month for many tide gauge stations were registered during Storm Kyrill on 18 January 2007 and also during Storm Lancelot on 20 January 2007.  This contribution takes a closer look at the North Sea surge of two important storms of the period: Storm Franz and Storm Kyrill.  An analysis is presented of tide gauge data to elucidate the storm surge and wave field around the North Sea and to assess possible links with shipping accidents and offshore incidents.  An unusually large wave sequence had been registered at the FINO1 offshore wind energy research platform only a couple of months previously on 1 November 2006.  The water level data is analyzed to ascertain if there may have been a repeat of the wave event during the storm sequence on 8-22 January 2007.

How to cite: Kettle, A.: Kyrill, Franz, and the Societal Impacts of the Storms of January 2007, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2287, 2022.

Wind farms extract kinetic energy from the flow to generate electricity. Thereby, they modify the wind and turbulence fields upwind, at the side and especially downwind of the farm. Due to the induced enhanced mixing, other meteorological variables such as temperature and humidity are also affected by the presence of wind farms. With the massive growth of installed capacity both on- and offshore, these wind farm effects play an increasing role in numerical weather forecasts. This study will investigate the impact of currently installed wind farms in Europe on the weather forecast accuracy.

We performed forecasts for central and northern Europe with and without wind farm parameterizations. We used the operational mesoscale model HARMONIE-AROME equipped with the wind farm parameterization (WFP) by Fitch et al. (2012) as implemented by van Stratum et al. (2021). We added another WFP, the explicit wake parameterization (EWP, Volker et al. 2015). We created a European wind turbine data set by combining different data sets and using a machine learning gap-filling approach. This data set includes turbine locations and their characteristics. Different scenarios were tested using this data set: (A) including only offshore turbines in the German Bight and surrounding Denmark, (B) including all on- and offshore turbines present in the European wind turbine data set.

The simulation results from HARMONIE-AROME indicate that wind farms affect near-surface wind speed, temperature and humidity. The magnitude of these differences decreases with increasing distance from the farm, but still amounts to ±0.5 m/s in 10-m-wind or ±0.25 K in 2-m-temperature at a non-negliable number of locations in Denmark for an investigated exemplary summer day compared to the scenario without wind farms. The impact of onshore turbines is generally smaller than that of offshore turbines. However, the response to scenarios (A) and (B) differ, indicating that it is necessary to include both on- and offshore turbines to capture the full effect of wind farms in Europe. The wind farm effect also depends on the chosen wind farm parameterization, and both schemes provide plausible results. Future studies are necessary to better evaluate the two parameterizations and derive possible fine-tuning or combinations of the schemes. Overall, an ensemble consisting of both wind farm parameterizations could give a more reliable forecast in the future.

A. C. Fitch, J. B. Olson, J. K. Lundquist, J. Dudhia, A. K. Gupta, J. Michalakes, and I. Barstad. Local and Mesoscale Impacts of Wind Farms as Parameterized in a Mesoscale NWP Model. Mon Weather Rev, 140(9):3017–3038, sep 2012. ISSN 00270644. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00352.1

B. van Stratum, N. E. Theeuwes, J. Barkmeijer, B. van Ulft, and I. Wijnant. A year-long evaluation of a wind-farm parameterisation in HARMONIE-AROME. Earth and Space Science Open Archive, page 29, 2021. doi: 10.1002/essoar.10509415.1. URL doi:10.1002/essoar.10509415.1

P. J. H. Volker, J. Badger, A. N. Hahmann, and S. Ott. The Explicit Wake Parametrisation V1.0: a wind farm parametrisation in the mesoscale model WRF. Geoscientific Model Development, 8(11):3715–3731, 2015. ISSN 1991-959X. doi:10.5194/gmd-8-3715-2015.

How to cite: Fischereit, J., Olsen, B. T., Imberger, M., Vedel, H., Guo Larsén, X., Hahmann, A., Giebel, G., and Kaas, E.: Wind farm effects on weather forecast using the operational model HARMONIE-AROME, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2373, 2022.

Unique airborne in-situ measurements were evaluated to investigate the influence of offshore wind farms on the latent heat flux in the marine boundary layer. 21 of the total 42 measurement flights carried out in the frame work of the WIPAFF project over the German Bight in the years 2016 and 2017  enabled such an evaluation under different atmospheric conditions. The measurements of 15 flights showed a significant increase of the vertical upward latent heat flux over the offshore wind farm clusters Amrumbank West, Nordsee Ost, Meerwind Süd/Ost or the wind farm Godewind. Under thermally stable conditions, all except one of the measurement flights showed an increase of latent heat flux over or in the wake of the wind farms, with an heat flux up to 17 times higher compared to the undisturbed flow. During flights under unstable thermal stratification, the phenomenon was observed in 8 out of 13 cases. The results also suggest that not only thermal stratification but also moisture stratification plays a decisive role in whether the influence of the wind farm becomes noticeable in the latent heat flux.  Considering the absolute amount of the increase of the upward latent heat flux, a maximum increase of +400 W/m² was measured in unstable conditions. 

How to cite: Platis, A., Büchau, Y., and Bange, J.: Influence of offshore wind farms on the latent heat flux in the marine boundary layer, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2602, 2022.

Forecasting day-ahead 1-minute irradiance variability from NWP output

Accurate forecasts of solar irradiance are required for the large scale integration of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Fluctuations of energy generation in the order of minutes can lead to issues on the electricity grid, therefore accurate forecasts of minute-to-minute irradiance variability are required. However, state of the art numerical weather predictions (NWP) deliver forecasts at a much coarser temporal resolution, e.g. hourly averages.

In this work we present a methodology to forecast a quantification of minute-to-minute irradiance variability as well as the probability distribution function (pdf), by applying statistical postprocessing and machine learning on hourly NWP ourput. In total, 10 target parameters related to the irradiance variability are forecasted. The algorithm is tested using the NWP HARMONIE-AROME (HA) mesoscale model as input, with 1-minute irradiance observations for 18 locations throughout the Netherlands used as ground truth.

Results show that the proposed algorithm is capable of forecasting the 1-minute irradiance PDF with reasonable resemblence to the observed PDF. Moreover, we show that inaccuracies of the postprocessed result are to a large extent due toerrors in the radiation forecast of the NWP used as input, reducing the average R² score from 0.75 to .57 for the most relevant targets. The generalizability of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by training the model on data of a single site and testing the performance on all 18 sites. Surprisingly, we find for 14 sites the model achieves higher accuracy than at the site it was trained on. Including data of all sites in the train set improves the accuracy on 3 of the 6 relevant target parameters while decreasing the accuracy on 1. Finally, we compare this work on post-processing to the next generation weather models based on high resolution Large Eddy Simulation (LES). A case study spanning four days is performed on four days well-captured by the NWP model and results are compared to results from the post-processing algorithm. While LES underestimates values of high irradiance due to lack of 3D radiative effects, it enables detailed analysis of the dynamics at high spatial and temporal resolution unreachable by statistical postprocessing.

The algorithm presented in this work is able to predict intra-hour irradiance variability based on day-ahead NWP output. Thereby moving forward significantly towards improving grid operation, planning, and resilience in relation to large-scale solar PV generation.

How to cite: Kreuwel, F. and van Heerwaarden, C.: Forecasting day-ahead 1-minute irradiance variability from NWP output, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2875, 2022.

Nocturnal Low-Level Jets (NLLJ) are maxima in vertical profiles of the horizontal wind speed in the lowest hundreds of meters of the troposphere. NLLJs therefore influence the winds at typical rotor heights. However, due to rare measurements with a sufficient precision and resolution, the occurrence frequency and spatio-temporal characteristics of NLLJs on the mesoscale are still poorly understood. The present work uses new measurements of wind profiles for June to August 2020 from Doppler wind lidars that were installed as a part of the Field Experiment on Submesoscale Spatio-Temporal Variability (FESTVaL) campaign, in Lindenberg and Falkenberg (Germany), at about 6 km of distance from each other. The aim of our NLLJ assessment is to characterize their mesoscale properties and evaluate their potential impacts on wind power production. The vertical profiles of the 10-minute mean winds from the lidar measurements were statistically analysed using automated detection tools for NLLJs. These allowed the determination of the frequency of occurrence, height and wind speed in the core of NLLJs as well as the vertical wind shear with a high temporal resolution. First, we intercompared the results from the two sites in order to analyse the temporal and spatial variability of NLLJs on the mesoscale. Our automatic detection identified NLLJs in about 64% to 74% of the summer nights in 2020, showing that they were a common phenomenon during that summer. About half of the NLLJ events were longer than 3 hours, with Lindenberg having more often shorter events of less than 1 hour. If very long NLLJ events (> 6 hours) occurred, they typically affected both places simultaneously, an indicative of their mesoscale character. Our results further suggest that very long NLLJ events are generated by the classical inertial oscillations, influenced by a large-scale horizontal pressure gradient and intermittent turbulent mixing, while shorter NLLJ events are more strongly dependent on local conditions or are driven by shorter-living density currents. Regarding their potential impact on wind turbines, we simulated wind power production for two different turbine types of different height and capacity. Both simulations indicate that NLLJs clearly increase the power production compared to nights without NLLJs. The quantitative NLLJ impacts on power production strongly depend on the height of the wind turbines: during NLLJ events the average wind production was 80% higher for a hub height of 135 m and only 53% higher for 94 m. At the same time, NLLJs increased the wind shear across the rotor layer. Extreme shear in the rotor layer was often associated with NLLJs, with 37% of all NLLJs leading to extreme shear and 48% of all extreme shear cases being caused by NLLJs. We infer from our assessment that particularly long NLLJ events strong influence wind power production, while shorter NLLJs can increase the temporal and spatial variability in power production, causing power ramps.

How to cite: Weide Luiz, E. and Fiedler, S.: Assessment of nocturnal low-level jets and their implication for wind power from FESST@home measurements, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3177, 2022.

Accurate maps of surface incoming solar (SIS) radiation are a crucial prerequisite for producing precise solar radiation and photovoltaic power (PV) nowcasts useful to utility companies, grid operators and energy traders. 

We present a new bias correction approach for satellite-retrieved SIS measurements using deep neural networks with time encoding features, achieving significantly reduced biases on high time resolution data. Moreover, we demonstrate the necessity and the benefits of automated bias correction prior to performing surface radiation and PV nowcasts.

We make use of SIS retrieved from the SEVIRI spectrometer onboard the geostationary Meteosat MSG satellite with the HelioMont (Stöckli, 2013) and HelioSat (Müller et al., 2015) algorithms by the CM SAF team. HelioMont comes at a spatial resolution of 0.02x0.02 degrees, while HelioSat provides a resolution of 0.05x0.05 degrees. For the bias correction, we employ high-quality long-term pyranometer measurements from 113 ground stations of one of the densest meteorological networks around the world, the SwissMetNet.  The SIS radiations are retrieved at 30-minutes, 15-minutes and 10-minutes resolutions (HelioSat, HelioMont, and SwissMetNet, respectively) for the entire year 2018. We use 46 weeks as training set and 6 weeks as test set, wherein the latter consists of the 3 sunniest and 3 cloudiest weeks of 2018.

Our approach involves a multilayer perceptron (MLP) trained to correct the satellite SIS bias by exploiting the predictor variables (time encoding, location features and satellite SIS) and fitting them to predict the ground station SIS. By doing so, we demonstrate that our novel bias correction method can reduce the SIS mean absolute bias (MAB) of both HelioMont and HelioSat by more than 10%. Comparing our results with a standard linear regression (LR) model, we find that the MLP outperforms the LR approach on 112 and 111 SwissMetNet stations for HelioMont and HelioSat, respectively. 

Moreover, we found that the bias magnitude is significantly correlated with the altitude of the considered location and with the time of year. The biases are largest in mountainous regions that tend to have a higher albedo due snow and ice. In fact, the Pearson correlation between the altitude and the average MAB is 0.76 and 0.80 for HelioMont and HelioSat, respectively.

References

• R. Stöckli (2013). The HelioMont Surface Solar Radiation Processing. Scientific Report 93, MeteoSwiss, 122 pp.
• Müller, R., U. Pfeifroth, C. Träger-Chatterjee, J. Trentmann, and R. Cremer (2015), Digging the METEOSAT Treasure-3 Decades of Solar Surface Radiation, Remote Sensing, 7(6), 8067-8101, doi:10.3390/rs70608067.

How to cite: Carpentieri, A., Wild, M., Folini, D., and Meyer, A.: Deep learning for improved bias correction of satellite-derived SIS maps, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3641, 2022.

As today’s wind farm clusters can be as large as thousands of kilometers squared and individual turbines hundreds of meters tall, we are challenged when applying classical wind and turbulence models for corresponding wind energy-related calculations.  Typical boundary-layer turbulence models are applicable to time scales smaller than ~1 h, or as denoted by Högström et al. (2002) the Kolmogoroff inertial subrange, the shear production range, and for ranges within the spectral gap region. 

This study revisits some key characteristics of the atmospheric boundary-layer turbulence, covering frequencies from 1/year, over the energy-containing range, to synoptic- and mesoscales, to the gap region and to the 3D turbulence range. This study aims at investigating the following fundamental questions: How to characterize the full-scale spectral behaviors and what are the mechanisms behind them? To which extent is the condition of stationarity fulfilled? What are the 2D-isotropy characteristics? How are numerical modeling abilities in capturing these characteristics? We also show how these findings have been used in wind energy applications, e.g. for generating time series of wind speed including meso-scale variability, for investigating meandering, for extreme wind calculation and for improving turbulence intensity calculation in the presence of organized atmospheric phenomena.

The study includes literatures as well as a series of our studies in recent years (e.g. Larsén et al. 2013, 2016, 2019, 2021).  We combined measurements and modeling in the analysis. The primary datasets are from several met stations over Denmark and the North Sea region, including both 10-min and sonic measurements from about 10 m up to 240 m. The investigations include both statistical and numerical modeling.

References:

Högström U, Hunt J, Smedman AS (2002) Theory and measurements for turbulence spectra and variances in the atmospheric neutral surface layer. Boundary-Layer Meteorol 103:101–124

Larsén, X. G., Larsen, S. E., Petersen, E. L., & Mikkelsen, T. K. (2021). A Model for the Spectrum of the Lateral Velocity Component from Mesoscale to Microscale and Its Application to Wind-Direction Variation. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 178, 415-434. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-020-00575-0

Larsén X., Larsen S., Petersen E. and Mikkelsen T. 2019: Turbulence Characteristics of Wind-Speed Fluctuations in the Presence of Open Cells: A Case Study. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-019-00425-8, (171), 191 – 212.

Larsén X. Larsen S. and Petersen E. (2016): Full-scale spectrum of the boundary layer wind. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, Vol 159, p 349-371

Larsén X., Vincent C. and Larsen S.E. (2013): Spectral structure of mesoscale winds over the water, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., DOI:10.1002/qj.2003, 139, 685-700.  

How to cite: Larsén, X., Larsen, S., Petersen, E., and Mikkelsen, T.: Full-scale turbulence structure of wind and applications, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4572, 2022.

In 2020, the North Sea already had 19.8 GW or 79% of the European offshore wind installations. The size and number of wind farms in this region are expected to increase substantially to reach climate mitigation targets, with forecasts of offshore wind commitments across Europe adding up to 111 GW of offshore wind by 2030. However, governments base their climate mitigation plans on past historical wind resources data. Still, there is a probable threat that these will change in the future due to climate change during the lifetime of a wind farm. 

The study of future changes in wind resources is not a new subject. A systematic literature search with the keywords "Wind Resources" and "Climate Change" returned over 80 peer-reviewed articles that assessed future wind resources at the global, regional and local scale. Most of these studies used the 10-m wind speed output from the climate or regional model to directly estimate a wind turbine's power production, using the power law and sometimes an idealised power curve. As far as we know, only two studies explored the possible implications of changes in wind direction. 

In this presentation, we explore the implications of the various assumptions. We use the example of the North Sea and Northern Europe and the CMIP6 climate model archive to demonstrate that some assumptions can exaggerate future wind resource changes. We also consider the consequences of the changes in boundary layer stability, wind direction and vegetation changes to the future wind resources in Northern Europe. 

How to cite: Hahmann, A. N., Peña, A., García-Santiago, O., and Pryor, S. C.: Evaluation of the assumptions used in the assessment of future wind resources - A case for CMIP6 in Northern Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5232, 2022.

Accurate irradiance data is necessary for model estimates of expected photovoltaic (PV) power production. Such data is freely available from reanalysis and satellite products with a high temporal and spatial resolution, including locations without ground-based measurements. Gridded irradiance data is therefore used for the characterization of solar resources at specific locations and larger areas, e.g. by power system modellers. Past assessments of irradiance data for PV modelling often relied on the evaluation of global horizontal irradiance (Q_GHI). However, the direct and diffuse irradiance components as well as differences in seasonal characteristics can strongly affect the PV capacity factors (C) potentially leading to larger biases in C than for Q_GHI. We therefore systematically assess differences in Q_GHI, direct and diffuse horizontal irradiance (Q_dir  and Q_dif) and quantify the subsequent bias propagation from individual radiation components to C in a contemporary PV power model. Our PV model simulations use seven different gridded irradiance data sets, namely ERA5, COSMO-REA6, COSMO-REA6pp, COSMO-REA2, CAMS radiation service, SARAH-2 and CERES Syn1Deg. All data sets provide Q_dir and Q_dif as separate time series spanning seven to 43 years and with a temporal resolution of 15 minutes to one hour. The results are compared against seven years of simulations based on reference measurements from 30 weather stations of the German Weather Service. We compute metrics characterizing biases in seasonal and annual spatial means, day-to-day variability and extremes in C, considering single stations and a simulated PV fleet. Our results highlight biases of -1.4 % (COSMO-REA6) to +8.2 % (ERA5) in annual and spatial means of C at single stations across Germany, while the bias in Q_GHI is -3 % for COSMO-REA6 to +3.6 % for ERA5. We also show the bias on days of very low PV production, relevant for extreme event analysis: The days within the lowest ten percent of daily PV production in a PV fleet show a bias of +70.2 % in ERA5, while it is only +4 % in the post-processed COSMO-REA6 data (COSMO-REA6pp). SARAH-2 and COSMO-REA6pp outperform the other products for many metrics, but also cause some biases in C. For instance, SARAH-2 yields good results in summer, but overestimates C in winter by 16 % averaged across all stations. COSMO-REA6pp represents day-to-day variability in C of a simulated PV fleet very well and has a relatively small bias of +0.5 % in the annual spatial means, but this is partly due to compensating biases from individual stations. Our results suggest that gridded irradiance data should be used with caution for site assessments and should ideally be complemented by local measurements. For power system modellers, our results may provide guidance for the quantification of uncertainties caused by gridded irradiance data.

Reference:

Kenny, D., and Fiedler, S., in press, Which gridded irradiance data is best for modelling photovoltaic power production in Germany?, Solar Energy.

How to cite: Kenny, D. and Fiedler, S.: Inter-comparison of PV power simulations from seven gridded irradiance data sets, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5888, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5888, 2022.

The largest part of the global population without reliable access to electricity lives in Africa. Here, renewable energy is a sustainable, cost efficient, and climate-friendly solution, especially given the large untapped renewable energy potential existing over the African continent. However, most renewable energy-related studies over Africa typically use input datasets at relatively coarse spatial resolutions (e.g., ERA5 at about 30km). Our objective is to produce a prototypical high-resolution dataset over southern Africa from dedicated atmospheric simulations. The data will be used with renewable energy assessment models, to eventually evaluate the renewables potentials. The hypothesis is that the high-resolution datasets provide more realistic and accurate renewable energy potential estimates. The ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) Numerical Weather Prediction (ICON-NWP) model is run as the operational forecast model at the German Weather Service (DWD); and we employ the same model in its Limited Area Mode (ICON-LAM) in this project. The study domain over southern Africa is chosen due to its high solar and wind energy potential. ICON-LAM dynamically downscales the global deterministic ICON-NWP forecasts dataset from a spatial grid spacing of 13km to a convection-permitting resolution of 3.3km, without convection parameterization. This southern Africa ICON-LAM implementation is novel and has not been run before. Simulations cover the time span from 2017 to 2019 with contrasting meteorological conditions. The high-resolution triangulated grid cells of the 3.3km domain are exactly inscribed in the 13km global grid cells, following the sub-triangle generation rule of the ICON model mesh. To keep the ICON-LAM close to the observed atmospheric state the model atmosphere is reinitialized every 5 days, with one day spinup. The land surface and subsurface are run transient. In a very initial evaluation step, simulated 10m wind speed, global solar radiation, 2m air temperature, and precipitation from the coarser driving model, the ERA5 reanalysis as well as our ICON-LAM setup are validated using satellite data and in situ observations from the two local meteorological networks (SASSCAL and TAHMO). Initial results point to an added value of the convection-permitting simulations.

How to cite: Chen, S., Poll, S., Heinrichs, H., Hendricks-Franssen, H.-J., and Görgen, K.: Convection-permitting ICON-LAM simulations as input to evaluate renewable energy potentials over southern Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6339, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6339, 2022.

The impacts of large scale climate variabilities on the solar energy resource are widely investigated around the world, however their effects are not yet clear for Mascarene Islands (southwest Indian Ocean, SWIO) and needs to be addressed. In this study, surface solar radiation (SSR) classification and anomalies at the diurnal scale from SARAH-E satellite product over Reunion Island are linked to the large scale climate variabilities in SWIO region. These climate variabilities include Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and the Tropical Temperate Troughs (TTTs) at the synoptic scale, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) at the intraseasonal scale, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the interannual scale.
We identified the variability of SSR at various time scales where both local processes and the large scale convective variabilities play important roles. At the synoptic and intraseasonal timescales, the local variability of SSR over Reunion shows a significant association with TCs, TTTs and the MJO. The sign and amplitude of SSR diurnal anomaly are found to be correlated with the enhanced- / depressed- convective phase and amplitude of these events. The SSR anomaly is strongly altered with the presence of nearby TCs, with a value of up to about 30% of climatology, although at low occurrence; TTTs and MJO have relatively weaker impact, with a value of about 13% and 5% respectively. At the interannual timescale, IOD, SIOD and ENSO have relatively much less importance on local SSR variability. The daily total solar energy density has been calculated for all these variabilities to provide useful information for energy applications. 

How to cite: Tang, C., Mialhe, P., Pohl, B., Morel, B., Koseki, S., Abiodun, B., and Bessafi, M.: Variability of the Surface Solar Radiation over Reunion island and its interaction with the synoptic, intraseasonal and interannual convective variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6831, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6831, 2022.

Historically, electricity was provided by dispatchable sources that are able to adjust to demand variations. Adding an irregular source to the network is a challenge for the grid stability. Especially, wind turbine production varies depending on meteorological conditions. At a regional or country scale, Transmission System Operators (TSOs) are responsible to maintain supply demand equilibrium in their network. In this context, wind power production forecast is one of the tools needed to manage the network. Traditionally, physical models are used to predict power production based on turbine characteristics and numerical weather prediction models. Indeed, wind power production is strongly correlated to wind speed at turbine hub height and other meteorological parameters. One limit of those physical approaches is that they require precise knowledge on turbines characteristics and locations, in particular at a regional scale.

To overpass this limit, a statistical approach such as deep learning can be used but needs to be qualified in terms of performances. In this study, a supervised deep learning model is explored. This model does not require information on turbine location or characteristics but does require historical samples of weather parameters and associated production.

Our work focuses on day-ahead forecasts (horizons 24 to 48 hours) for a German TSO (region-scale). One physical model was selected as a reference and the goal was to combine deep learning and physical predictions to obtain the best possible forecast. Both the physical and the deep learning models use spatiotemporal meteorological inputs from the IFS (ECMWF) and GFS (NCEP) models. A convolutional neural network (CNN) was used to exploit the spatial information of maps of features. A LSTM was added to capture information from the time series evolution. Finally, several deep learning predictions were combined with the physical model prediction using a multi-layer perceptron. With this method, the MAE-based skill score of our final model, combining the physical one and deep learning ones, reaches more than 6% over a validation period of one year.

How to cite: Lepetit, M., Kurzrock, F., Aillaud, P., Sebastien, N., and Schmutz, N.: Regional-scale day-ahead wind power forecasting using deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6872, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6872, 2022.

The last 6 years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task 36 “Forecasting for Wind Energy” has provided forecasting stakeholders (weather institutes, forecast service providers, end users and academics) a platform to discuss challenges and benefits of forecasting for wind power. These discussions have led to a number of activities and initiatives to overcome challenges and to broadcast the benefits of forecasting. Among the major outputs are an information portal with links to free data, a collection of use cases for probabilistic forecasts, and the IEA Recommended Practice on Forecast Solution Selection, including 4 chapters dealing with the (1) solution selection process, (2) benchmarks and trials, (3) verification process and  use of online measurements from wind farms for real-time forecasting applications.

 In the future, we will no longer “integrate” wind and solar into existing power systems, but instead are wind and solar going to be the backbone of our power systems.

To address those challenges in an integrated fashion, the IEA Task for Forecasting under the IEA Wind Technology Collaboration Programme (TCP) relaunched with a new Task number (51) and a new work program. The work packages (WPs) are still structured according to stakeholder topics: WP1 deals with weather forecasting, and mainly addresses meteorologists, WP2 deals with the conversion of the weather feeds to the application specific variables such as wind power and addresses forecast vendors, and WP3 deals with the applications and how to get most value out of the forecasts, and therefore addresses the forecast users, including recent advances in data science and digitalisation. However, many of the topics the new Task takes up are cross-cutting, and are therefore now  Work Streams (WS):

• Atmospheric physics and modelling (lead by WP1)
• Airborne Wind Energy Systems (WP1)
• Seasonal forecasting (WP1)
• State of the Art for energy system forecasting (WP2)
• Forecasting for underserved areas (WP2)
• Minute scale forecasting (WP2)
• Uncertainty / probabilistic forecasting (WP3)
• Decision making under uncertainty (WP3)
• Extreme power system events (WP3)
• Data science and artificial intelligence (WP3)
• Privacy, data markets and sharing (WP3)
• Value of forecasting (WP3)
• Forecasting in the design phase (WP3)

Most of these work streams require collaboration, and therefore have dedicated partners in other IEA Wind Tasks, or in IEA Tasks outside of the Wind TCP. Task 51 will therefore collaborate with IEA Wind Tasks 32, 44, 48 and 50,  IEA PVPS Task 16, IEA Hydro, the IEA Hydrogen TCP, IEA Bioenergy Task 44  and WMO. 

A major activity of Task 51 will be four public workshops in the next four summers, starting with a workshop on the State of the Art and Research Gaps in 2022, on seasonal forecasting with a special emphasis on hydro power and storage in 2023,  on minute scale forecasting in 2024, and on extreme power system events in 2025.  We keep the community updated on events, new publications and other relevant information on our website ieawindforecasting.dk and via LinkedIn and Research gate.

How to cite: Giebel, G., Draxl, C., Frank, H., Zack, J., Browell, J., Möhrlen, C., Kariniotakis, G., and Bessa, R.: Forecasting for the Weather Driven Energy System – The New IEA Wind Task 51, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7926, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7926, 2022.

In this work, we revisit the 2D parametric-solver algorithm [1] to estimate the Obukhov length, and hence, determine atmospheric stability from floating Doppler wind lidar (FDWL) wind profiles. The algorithm fits the wind-profile model derived from Monin-Obukhov similarity theory to the FDWL-measured wind profile by means of a constrained non-linear least squares optimisation. Observational data were gathered at the IJmuiden test site in the North Sea (52.848 N, 3.436 E) between March and June of 2015. The reference Obukhov length was obtained via bulk Richardson number, which was estimated from IJmuiden-mast observations. Comparisons with the reference stability are performed by using a simplified atmospheric stability classification consisting of only three types, namely stable, neutral and unstable. Fairly similar results were obtained from the 2D-estimated and the mast-derived reference stability classifications for the stability behaviour during the time of day as well as for horizontal-wind-speed dependence on the stability type.

This research is part of the projects PGC2018-094132-B-I00 and MDM-2016-0600 (“CommSensLab” Excellence Unit) funded by Ministerio de Ciencia e Investigación (MCIN)/ Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI)/ 10.13039/501100011033/ FEDER “Una manera de hacer Europa”. The work of M.P Araujo da Silva was supported under Grant PRE2018-086054 funded by MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033 and FSE “El FSE invierte en tu futuro. The work of A. Salcedo-Bosch was supported under grant 2020 FISDU 00455 funded by Generalitat de Catalunya—AGAUR. The European Commission collaborated under projects H2020 ACTRIS-IMP (GA-871115) and H2020 ATMO-ACCESS (GA-101008004).

[1] M. P. Araujo da Silva, F. Rocadenbosch, J. Farré-Guarné, A. Salcedo-Bosch, D. González-Marco, and A. Peña, “Assessing obukhov length and friction velocity from floating lidar observations: A data screening and sensitivity computation approach,” Remote Sensing, 2022, submitted.

How to cite: Araujo da Silva, M. P., Rocadenbosch, F., Farré-Guarné, J., Salcedo-Bosch, A., González-Marco, D., and Peña, A.: Offshore atmospheric stability estimation from floating lidar wind profiles, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8241, 2022.