SM – Seismology

EGU22-2052 | Presentations | MAL10 | Beno Gutenberg Medal Lecture

Space-time variations of crustal, fault zone, and seismicity structures 

Yehuda Ben-Zion

Beno Gutenberg made fundamental contributions to knowledge about large-scale earth structures and properties of moderate to large earthquakes using the seismic data available at the time. Data recorded in the last few decades by improved regional networks and dense seismic arrays provide opportunities for resolving fine details of subsurface rocks and seismicity in 4D. I review such results based primarily on recent data from Southern California. The discussed topics include multi-scale seismic imaging of the crust and fault zones, monitoring temporal changes of seismic velocities, and tracking localization of rock damage and low magnitude seismicity before large earthquakes.

The seismic imaging results reveal hierarchical rock damage structures around large fault zones with intense core damage zones and bimaterial interfaces. The fault damage zones follow overall a flower-shape structure, with significant damage in the top few km that decreases in amplitude and width with depth, and they tend to be offset from the surface trace to the side with higher seismic velocity at depth. The top 100-300 m section has generally extreme seismic properties (very low Vp, Vs, Q values; very high Vp/Vs ratios), which make it highly susceptible to failure and temporal changes. Large earthquakes produce changes of seismic velocities that decay with distance from the rupture zones, but remain significant on a regional scale in the shallow crust. The co-seismic velocity changes are followed by log(t) recovery, and can be very large (e.g. >30%) in the top 100-300 m. Appreciable changes of shallow materials are also generated by atmospheric and other non-tectonic loadings on various timescales.

The results on localization processes are based on (i) estimated production of rock damage by background seismicity, (ii) spatial localization of background events within damaged areas, and (iii) progressive coalescence of individual earthquakes into clusters. The analyses reveal generation of earthquake-induced rock damage on a decadal timescale around eventual rupture zones of large earthquakes, and progressive localization of background seismicity 2-3 yrs before M > 7 earthquakes in Southern and Baja California and M > 7.5 events in Alaska. This localization phase is followed by coalescence of earthquakes into growing clusters that precede the mainshocks. Corresponding analyses around the 2004 M6 Parkfield earthquake in the creeping section of the San Andreas fault, which is essentially always localized, show opposite tendencies to those involving faults that are locked in the interseismic periods.

Continuing efforts in these topics include merging local high-resolution imaging results within regional models, monitoring temporal changes of properties at seismogenic depth, and including geodetic data and insights from laboratory experiments in the localization analyses.

How to cite: Ben-Zion, Y.: Space-time variations of crustal, fault zone, and seismicity structures, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2052, 2022.

EGU22-2108 | Presentations | MAL10 | SM Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture

The Deep Roots of Geology: Tectonic History of Australia as expressed by Mantle Anisotropy 

Caroline Eakin

Australia is an old stable continent with a rich geological history. Limitations in sub-surface seismic imaging below the Moho, however, mean that is unclear to what extent, and to what depth, this rich geological history is expressed in the mantle. Studies of seismic anisotropy, which reflect past/present mantle deformation, can offer potential insights. One commonly employed technique is shear wave splitting, in which the wave polarisation is measured. New such results from seismic arrays deployed across central Australia, reveal a pattern of anisotropy that is consistent with past deformation of the Australian lithosphere that has been preserved for over 300 million years. Another informative technique is to use scattered surface waves, called Quasi-Love waves, that can detect lateral gradients in seismic anisotropy. The first such study for the region finds that scatterers are preferentially located near (1) the passive continental margins, and (2) the boundaries of major geological provinces within Australia. Such lateral anisotropic gradients within the continental interior imply pervasive fossilized lithospheric anisotropy, on a scale that mirrors the crustal geology at the surface. Beneath the continental margins, lateral anisotropic gradients may indicate small-scale dynamic processes in the asthenosphere, such as edge-drive convection, that are tied to the margins.

How to cite: Eakin, C.: The Deep Roots of Geology: Tectonic History of Australia as expressed by Mantle Anisotropy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2108, 2022.

SM1 – General Seismology

EGU22-2498 | Presentations | SM1.1

Crustal structure and mantle anisotropy beneath Klyuchevskoy Volcano and surrounding regions in Kamchatka 

Ayoub Kaviani, Georg Rümpker, Ivan Koulakov, Christoph Sens‐Schönfelder, and Nikolay Shapiro

We use seismological data collected from a recently deployed seismic network around the Klyuchevskoy Volcanic Group (KVG) in Kamchatka to study the crustal structure and mantle anisotropy beneath the region. In order to improve and extend the data coverage, we combined this data set with data from previous temporary deployments and permanent stations to reach a total number of 145 stations covering a region defined in the geographic coordinates 150°-167°E and 50°-61°N.

We use receiver function (RF) analysis to study the crustal structure beneath the study area. P-RFs are migrated to depth and stacked to image seismic interfaces beneath the network of seismic stations. We used a recently published three-D seismic tomography model to migrate the RFs from time to space domain. The RF amplitudes are stacked in the space domain using the Common Conversion Point (CCP) approach. The stacked RF amplitudes provide a 3-D image of seismic interfaces. The use of the 3-D velocity model helps migrate the RF amplitude to correct depths so that the depth and geometry of subsurface interfaces are constrained more correctly.  Furthermore, we are able to better compare the 3-D CCP images with the 3-D tomography model. In addition, at stations with a sufficient number of RFs, we also tried to calculate Moho depth and mean Vp/Vs ratio using the single-station H-k stacking approach. This analysis provides a way to better identify the interfaces beneath different locations and verify and adjust the depths obtained using the CCP stacking. We found a relatively complex crustal structure in the entire region of the KVG that laterally merges to a simpler structure to the west. Seismic tomography images provide better lateral resolution of velocity anomalies while RF analysis provides better vertical resolution of vertical velocity constants. Our RF-CCP images reveal two main interfaces beneath the active volcanic region. The shallow interfaces with a limited lateral extent have depths varying between 20 and 30 km. The deeper interface occurs at depths 50-60 km with an east-to-west dipping direction. In comparison with the seismic tomography model, we infer that the shallow interface is related to a velocity increase from <6 km/s to >7 km/s, implying the presence of a shallow low-velocity zone beneath the volcanic group. The deeper interface that correlates with a velocity increase from <7 km/s to around 8 km/s might be related to the top of the subducting plate. 

In addition to the RF analysis for the crustal structure, we also perform splitting analysis of core-refracted shear waves (SKS) to study mantle seismic anisotropy as a proxy for the pattern of the mantle flow field. Our SKS-splitting analysis indicates a trench-normal mantle flow beneath the eastern edge of the Kamchatka peninsula that converts to a more complex pattern beneath the KVG region. We argue that this pattern of fast polarization direction suggests the rotational mantle flow that may be related to a slab gap at the junction between the Kuril-Kamchatka and Aleutian arcs.

How to cite: Kaviani, A., Rümpker, G., Koulakov, I., Sens‐Schönfelder, C., and Shapiro, N.: Crustal structure and mantle anisotropy beneath Klyuchevskoy Volcano and surrounding regions in Kamchatka, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2498, 2022.

EGU22-2839 | Presentations | SM1.1

A decade of short-period earthquake rupture histories from multi-array back-projection 

Felipe Vera, Frederik Tilmann, and Joachim Saul

Teleseismic back-projection has emerged as a widely-used tool for understanding the rupture histories of large earthquakes. However, its application often suffers from artifacts related to the receiver array geometry, notably the `swimming' artifact. We present a teleseismic back-projection method with multiple arrays and combined P and pP waveforms. The method is suitable for defining arrays ad-hoc in order to achieve a good azimuthal distribution for most earthquakes.

We present a catalog of short-period rupture histories (0.5-2.0 Hz) containing 54 events from 2010 to 2021 (Mw  7.5), including recent and significant earthquake ruptures, e.g., 2021 Mw 8.3 South of Sandwich Islands, 2021 Mw 8.2 Chignik, 2021 Mw 8.1 Kermadec Islands, and 2020 Mw 7.8 Simeonof Island.

The method provides semi-automatic estimates of rupture length, directivity, speed, and aspect ratio, which are related to the complexity of large ruptures. We determined short-period rupture length scaling relations that are in good agreement with previously published relations based on estimates of total slip. Rupture speeds were consistently in the sub-Rayleigh regime for thrust and normal earthquakes, whereas strike-slip events propagated in the unstable supershear range. Many of the rupture histories exhibited complex behaviors such as rupture on conjugate faults (e.g., 2018 Mw 7.9 Gulf of Alaska), bilateral ruptures (e.g., 2017 Mw 7.8 Komandorsky Islands), and dynamic triggering by a P wave (e.g., 2016 Mw 7.9 Solomon Islands). For megathrust earthquakes, ruptures encircling asperities were frequently observed, with down-dip (e.g., 2021 Mw 8.1 Kermadec Islands), up-dip (e.g., 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales), double encircling (e.g., 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel), and segmented (e.g., 2020 Mw 7.8 Simeonof Island) patterns. Although there is a preference for short-period emissions to emanate from central and down-dip parts of the megathrust, emissions up-dip of the main asperities are more frequent than suggested by earlier results.

How to cite: Vera, F., Tilmann, F., and Saul, J.: A decade of short-period earthquake rupture histories from multi-array back-projection, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2839, 2022.

EGU22-3017 | Presentations | SM1.1

An Improved shear velocity model beneath the Iranian plateau using adjoint noise tomography 

Abolfazl komeazi, Ayoub Kaviani, Farzam Yaminifard, and Georg Rümpker

We perform an adjoint waveform tomography using Rayleigh-wave empirical Green‘s functions (EGFs) at periods 10-50 s to improve a pre-existing 3-D velocity model of the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the Iranian plateau. The starting model was derived from a conventional surface-wave dispersion tomography based on high-frequency ray-theory assumption to invert of a quasi-3-D shear-wave velocity model. We use the EGFs from the same study that were derived from cross correlation of continuous seismic noise. Adjoint tomography refines the initial model by iteratively minimizing the frequency-dependent travel-time misfits between synthetic and observed EGFs measured in different period bands. Our new model covers the known tectonic units such as the Central Iranian Block, Zagros fold-and-thrust belt, Sanandaj-Sirjan metamorphic zone and Urumieh-Dokhtar magmatic arc.

Overall, the adjoint tomography provides images with better lateral resolution and depth sensitivity and more realistic absolute velocity values due to the inclusion of finite-frequency waveforms. The use the numerical spectral-element solver in adjoint tomography provides accurate structural sensitivity kernels, which helps to obtain more robust images rather than those generated by ray-theory tomography. The final model adjusts the shapes of velocity anomalies at crustal depth more specifically for the eastern Zagros. The final model significantly improves the initial model at the upper mantle depths and provides a higher resolution for the shape of velocity anomalies.

How to cite: komeazi, A., Kaviani, A., Yaminifard, F., and Rümpker, G.: An Improved shear velocity model beneath the Iranian plateau using adjoint noise tomography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3017, 2022.

EGU22-3794 | Presentations | SM1.1

Preliminary results of investigation of “unidentified fault” associated with the Mw 7.3 Flores Sea earthquake 

Pepen Supendi, Nicholas Rawlinson, Bambang Setiyo Prayitno, Sri Widiyantoro, Kadek Hendrawan Palgunadi, Andrean Simanjuntak, Andri Kurniawan, Gayatri Indah Marliyani, Andri Dian Nugraha, Daryono Daryono, Iman Fatchurochman, Muhammad Sadly, Suko Prayitno Adi, Dwikorita Karnawati, Mohammad Taufik Gunawan, and Abraham Arimuko

On December 14, 2021, the Mw 7.3 Flores Sea earthquake occurred approximately 100 km to the north of Flores Island, one of the most complex tectonic settings in Indonesia. The existence of the causative fault that generated this earthquake was not been previously known, therefore making further analysis crucial for assessing future seismic hazard in the region. In this study, we relocated the hypocenter of the mainshock and aftershocks using a double-difference method, determine focal mechanisms using waveform inversion, and then analyse stress changes to estimate the fault type and stress transfer caused by this earthquake. Our relocated hypocenters show that this earthquake sequence ruptured on at least three segments: the source mechanism of the mainshock exhibits dextral strike-slip motion (strike N288oW and dip 78o) that occurred on a West-East trending fault which we call the Kalaotoa Fault, while rupture of the other two segments located to the west and east of the mainshock (WSW-ESE directions, respectively) may have been triggered by this earthquake. The Coulomb stress change of the mainshock shows that areas to the northwest and southeast experienced an increase in stress, which is consistent with the observed aftershock pattern.

How to cite: Supendi, P., Rawlinson, N., Prayitno, B. S., Widiyantoro, S., Palgunadi, K. H., Simanjuntak, A., Kurniawan, A., Marliyani, G. I., Nugraha, A. D., Daryono, D., Fatchurochman, I., Sadly, M., Adi, S. P., Karnawati, D., Gunawan, M. T., and Arimuko, A.: Preliminary results of investigation of “unidentified fault” associated with the Mw 7.3 Flores Sea earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3794, 2022.

EGU22-4071 | Presentations | SM1.1

Which picker fits my data? A quantitative evaluation of deep learning based seismic pickers 

Jannes Münchmeyer, Jack Woollam, Andreas Rietbrock, Frederik Tilmann, Dietrich Lange, Thomas Bornstein, Tobias Diehl, Carlo Giunchi, Florian Haslinger, Dario Jozinović, Alberto Michelini, Joachim Saul, and Hugo Soto

Seismic event detection and phase picking are the base of many seismological workflows. In recent years, several publications demonstrated that deep learning approaches significantly outperform classical approaches, achieving human-like performance under certain circumstances. However, as studies differ in the datasets and evaluation tasks, it is yet unclear how the different approaches compare to each other. Furthermore, there are no systematic studies about model performance in cross-domain scenarios, i.e., when applied to data with different characteristics.

Here, we present the results from a large-scale benchmark to address these questions. We compare six previously published deep learning models on eight datasets covering local to teleseismic distances and on three tasks: event detection, phase identification and onset time picking. Furthermore, we compare the results to a classical Baer-Kradolfer picker.

Overall, we observe the best performance for EQTransformer, GPD and PhaseNet, with a small advantage for EQTransformer on teleseismic data. Furthermore, we conduct a cross-domain study, analyzing model performance on datasets they were not trained on. We show that trained models can be transferred between regions with only mild performance degradation, but models trained on regional data do not transfer well to teleseismic data.

As deep learning for detection and picking is a rapidly evolving field, we ensured extensibility of our benchmark by building our code on standardized frameworks and making it openly accessible. This allows model developers to easily evaluate new models or performance on new datasets. Furthermore, we make all trained models available through the SeisBench framework, giving end-users an easy way to apply these models.

 

Published as Münchmeyer, J., Woollam, J., Tilmann, F., Rietbrock, A., Lange, D., Bornstein, T., Diehl, T., Giunchi, C., Haslinger, F., Jozinović, D., Michelini, A., Saul, J. & Soto, H. (2021). Which picker fits my data? A quantitative evaluation of deep learning based seismic pickers. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. doi.org/10.1029/2021JB023499

How to cite: Münchmeyer, J., Woollam, J., Rietbrock, A., Tilmann, F., Lange, D., Bornstein, T., Diehl, T., Giunchi, C., Haslinger, F., Jozinović, D., Michelini, A., Saul, J., and Soto, H.: Which picker fits my data? A quantitative evaluation of deep learning based seismic pickers, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4071, 2022.

EGU22-4238 | Presentations | SM1.1

MERMAIDs in the South Pacific Ocean: Observations, Measurements, Modeling, Data Availability, and First Hints at Mantle Structure 

Jessica Irving, Joel Simon, Sirawich Pipatprathanporn, Frederik Simons, and The EarthScope-Oceans Consortium


MERMAIDs (Mobile Earthquake Recording in Marine Areas by Independent Divers) are seismic instruments which record local, regional and teleseismic earthquakes, and other signals, in the oceans. In the Southern Pacific Ocean, some fifty MERMAIDs are collecting acoustic pressure time series as part of the South Pacific Plume Imaging and Modeling (SPPIM) project. Deployed in 2018 and 2019 by members of the EarthScope-Oceans consortium, these instruments record continuous time series data on a one-year buffer and autonomously report a wealth of waveforms, selectively triggered mostly by teleseismic events, suitable for mantle tomography. 

Listening for signals while roughly 1.5 km below the ocean surface, MERMAIDs' primary mission is to detect and deliver records of P-waves generated by distant earthquakes, and collectively they have returned many thousands of seismograms corresponding to such signals. We present highlights from our earthquake catalog and discuss the changing character and causes of the background noise. Whilst the South Pacific fleet is programmed to only send short seismic records, corresponding to confident identifications of teleseismic first arrivals, some records contain later-arriving phases. In addition to P-waves, we present a miscellany of observations of other signals, including core phases, converted S- and surface waves, and T-phases. Furthermore, we illustrate that we are able to obtain other recorded data segments through buffer requests via satellite. 

Data from the MERMAIDs owned by Geoazur and Princeton University that we report on here are being archived by IRIS—those from three instruments is available without embargo. We highlight MERMAID waveform availability and its utility to the scientific community via examples of their modeling and preliminary interpretations that can be made regarding wavespeed heterogeneity in the dynamic mantle below the Pacific Ocean. 

How to cite: Irving, J., Simon, J., Pipatprathanporn, S., Simons, F., and EarthScope-Oceans Consortium, T.: MERMAIDs in the South Pacific Ocean: Observations, Measurements, Modeling, Data Availability, and First Hints at Mantle Structure, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4238, 2022.

EGU22-5570 | Presentations | SM1.1

Seismicity analysis of Southern Ghana II: Updated crustal velocity model and hypocentral parameters 

Susana Custódio, Hamzeh Mohammadigheymasi, Nasrin Tavakolizadeh, Luis Matias, and Graça Silveira

A small network of six broadband seismic sensors operated in southern Ghana between October 2012 and April 2014 (GHDSN). During this period, no seismicity was reported by the global data centers, however application of the Deep Learning algorithm EQTransformer resulted in the detection and subsequent location of 73 earthquakes. Preliminary constant crustal velocity models with  vp=5.55 km/s and vs=3.36 km/s have been utilized since 2002 to locate the local earthquakes in southern Ghana. Using this crude velocity model resulted in scattered seismicity, hinting into a likely inadequacy of these preliminary velocity parameters to represent the elastic properties of the area. In this study, we perform a joint-inversion for estimating an updated 1D crustal velocity model and the hypocentral parameters of the 73 recently detected local earthquakes. A grid search method is implemented and a 6-layer velocity model is defined, down to 45 km crustal depth. The space of velocity model parameters is searched by altering the upper depth of the layers (ud), P-wave velocity in each layer (vp), and the ratio of vp/vs. The optimized velocity model and hypocenteral parameters are evaluated by minimizing the RMS error function between the observed (533 picked phases consisting of 282 P and 251 S phases) and calculated arrival times. A two-step implementation is devised to increase the computational efficiency of the inversion process. Initially, the optimum  vp/vs is estimated by implementing a coarse grid search on vp and ud values. Then, incorporating the optimum vp/vs a fine grid search on vp and ud is applied.
The results yields layers with 1, 13, 8, 13 and 10 km thickness, with vp = 5.9, 6.1, 6.3, 6.5, 6.9 and 7.2 km/s, respectively. The updated velocities for the first and last layers are 6% and 26% percent higher than the previously reported constant velocity models. Furthermore, the updated vp/vs=1.70 is 0.03% higher than the corresponding value vp/vs=1.65 of the constant velocity model. The updated hypocentral locations of the 73 earthquakes with  2.5<ML<3.9 are concentrated on five major clusters. Two clusters are located on the AFZ, indicative of the active role of this structure in the seismicity of the region. Two other clusters, which have the highest rate of activity,  are positioned in the intersection between the AFZ and CBF. The last cluster consists of scattered earthquakes that coincide with mapped segments of the AFZ. Incorporating the updated velocity model for estimating the hypocentral parameters resulted in enhanced seismogenic source delineation in southern Ghana.  This research contributes to the FCT-funded projects SHAZAM (PTDC/CTA-GEO/31475/2017), RESTLESS (PTDC/CTA-GEF/6674/2020), SIGHT (PTDC/CTA-
GEF/30264/2017) and IDL (UIDB/50019/2020).

How to cite: Custódio, S., Mohammadigheymasi, H., Tavakolizadeh, N., Matias, L., and Silveira, G.: Seismicity analysis of Southern Ghana II: Updated crustal velocity model and hypocentral parameters, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5570, 2022.

EGU22-5860 | Presentations | SM1.1

Seismicity analysis in southern Ghana- I: Detecting local earthquakes by Deep Learning 

Hamzeh Mohammadigheymasi, Nasrin Tavakolizadeh, S. Mostafa Mousavi, Graça Silveira, and Rui Fernandes

A large volume of digital seismic data was recorded by six broadband seismic sensors equipped with GPS-clock timing in the Ghana Digital Seismic Network (GHDSN) between October 2012 and April 2014. For this period, no public seismicity catalog was reported by the global data centers, International Seismological Center (ISC), and United States Geological Survey (USGS) for southern Ghana. In this study, this database is processed to detect local earthquakes. To facilitate the challenging and time-consuming process of detecting the earthquakes and picking the arrival times of P and S phases, we utilize EQTransformer, a Deep Learning (DL) model deploying Hierarchical Attention Mechanism (HAM) for simultaneous earthquake detection and phase picking. This model utilizes global and local levels of attention mechanism for identifying earthquake and seismic phases deriving benefits from deep neural networks, including convolutional and recurrent neurons. The thresholding values of 0.2, 0.07, and 0.07 are set for earthquake detection, P-picking, and S-picking, respectively. As a result, a list of events for each station of the network with the associated time of detection, as well as P and S phase arrivals are obtained. Taking these arrival times into account, we have devised a so-called ”conservative strategy” to optimally extract all possible earthquakes in the data set, amenable to locate. Initially, a list of preliminary events recorded by at least two stations is created by comparing the earthquake occurrence and arrival times of the P and S phases for all stations regarding a 100 sec time threshold. The list in this step includes 317 events recorded by at least two stations. Eventually, an analyst controls the obtained waveforms in other stations assesses whether EQTranasformer misses the preliminary list of events in those stations. Consequently, a number of 533 picked phases (282 P and 251 S) recorded by a minimum of 3 stations are finalized. Incorporating these phases and removing the instrument response from the waveforms, the hypocentral parameters for 73 earthquakes with 2.5 ≤ M L ≤ 4.0 are estimated. The main concentration of events is on the intersection of the Akwapim fault zone and the coastal boundary fault, with some scattered seismicity along the Akwapim fault zone. The corresponding set of seismic phases is utilized to estimate an updated 1D crustal velocity model for the study area. This research contributes to the FCT-funded projects SHAZAM (Ref. PTDC/CTA-GEO/31475/2017), RESTLESS (Ref. PTDC/CTA-GEF/6674/2020), SIGHT (Ref. PTDC/CTA-GEF/30264/2017), and IDL (Ref. UIDB/50019/2020).

How to cite: Mohammadigheymasi, H., Tavakolizadeh, N., Mousavi, S. M., Silveira, G., and Fernandes, R.: Seismicity analysis in southern Ghana- I: Detecting local earthquakes by Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5860, 2022.

The Eifel region is a large volcanic system in the middle of European continent. From the Eifel teleseismic tomography experiment (8 months in 1997-1998), a mantle plume beneath the volcanic fields (down to 400 km depth) has been identified and further confirmed by receiver function and teleseismic surface wave dispersion analyses. A study in 2020 using dense geodetic observations leads to the conclusion that the Eifel region experiences a pronounced uplift encompassing the neighbouring countries Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg and France, which is attributed to the same buoyant mantle plume.

A detailed focus on the uppermost 30 km above the Moho has been missing until recently. However, a noteworthy recent seismological investigation showed the evidence of a deep magmatic recharge beneath the Laacher See Volcano in East Eifel between 2013 and 2018. Located at depth roughly between 40 and 10 km, low-frequency seismic swarms, which are typical of volcanic environment, convey the presence of magma movements and potential storage zones in the crust.  

The present study aims to bring additional information on this shallow active magmatic system using an Ambient Noise Tomography (ANT). Thanks to theoretical and technical developments over the two last decades, this approach has been increasingly popular for imaging Earth structure worldwide at different scales. We use here ambient noise data from archives of the 1997-1998 Eifel experiment and more recent (2019-2020) continuous seismic record. The group velocity dispersion of Rayleigh waves are estimated between station pairs from Noise Cross-correlation Functions (NCF) covering the secondary microseismic frequency band, which allows to sample the uppermost 10-20 km of the crust. Our contribution includes a complete description of the ANT/NCF processing (e.g., directivity of the noise sources, sensitivity tests) in order to better constrain the velocity anomalies observed in the Eifel region and around.

How to cite: Barrière, J. and Oth, A.: Imaging the uppermost layers of the Eifel volcanic system (Germany) using ambient microseismic noise, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7268, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7268, 2022.

EGU22-7994 | Presentations | SM1.1

The impact of the September 27, 2021, Mw=6.0 Arkalochori (Central Crete, Greece) earthquake on the natural environment and the building stock 

Spyridon Mavroulis, Haralambos Kranis, Stylianos Lozios, Ioannis Argyropoulos, Emmanuel Vassilakis, Konstantinos Soukis, Emmanuel Skourtsos, Efthymis Lekkas, and Panayotis Carydis

On September 27, 2021, an Mw=6.0 earthquake struck the central part of Crete Island (southern Greece) and in particular the Heraklion Region. This event was preceded by an extended foreshock sequence started on early July 2021 and it was followed by an Mw=5.3 aftershock on the following day.

Taking into account the spatial distribution of foreshocks and aftershocks and the focal mechanism of mainshock as well as the active faults of the earthquake-affected area, it is evident that the seismic activity is strongly related to the NNE-SSW striking W-dipping faults of the Kasteli fault zone located along the eastern margin of the Neogene to Quaternary Heraklion Basin. The latter has been filled with Miocene to Holocene post-alpine deposits.

A field reconnaissance conducted by the authors in the earthquake-affected area shortly after the mainshock revealed that the earthquake-triggered effects comprised mainly rockfalls and slides, as well as ground cracks within or close to landslide zones. These effects were located within the hanging-wall of the KFZ. The affected sites are mainly composed of Miocene deposits and they are characterized by pre-existing instability conditions and high susceptibility to landslides. Far field effects were also observed south of the earthquake-affected area and in particular in the southern coastal part of Heraklion Region.

In regards to the spatial distribution of the earthquake-induced building damage, the vast majority was caused in villages and towns founded on Miocene and Holocene deposits of the hanging-wall. Damage was not reported in settlements located in the footwall, which is composed of alpine formations.

The dominant building types of the earthquake-affected area comprise: (i) buildings with load-bearing masonry walls made of stones and bricks with clay or lime mortar, mainly constructed without any anti-seismic provisions and (ii) buildings with reinforced-concrete frame and infill walls constructed according to the applicable seismic codes. The former suffered the most severe structural damage including partial or total collapse in many villages founded on post-alpine deposits of the hanging-wall of KFZ. The latter responded satisfactory during the mainshock and were less affected with only non-structural damage including cracking, detachment of infill walls from the surrounding reinforced concrete frame, peeling of concrete and short-column failures.

From the abovementioned, it is concluded that the impact of the 2021 Arkalochori earthquake was limited to the hanging-wall of the causative fault zone and in particular to residential areas founded on post-alpine deposits and to slopes highly susceptible to failure within the Heraklion Basin.

How to cite: Mavroulis, S., Kranis, H., Lozios, S., Argyropoulos, I., Vassilakis, E., Soukis, K., Skourtsos, E., Lekkas, E., and Carydis, P.: The impact of the September 27, 2021, Mw=6.0 Arkalochori (Central Crete, Greece) earthquake on the natural environment and the building stock, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7994, 2022.

EGU22-8366 | Presentations | SM1.1

The 14 December 2021, Mw 7.4 Flores Earthquake: Review of the hypocenter relocation, slip distribution, coulomb stress, and seismic hazard 

Supriyanto Rohadi, Tio Azhar Prakoso, Tatok Yatimantoro, Aditya Rahman, Bambang Sunardi, Agustya Adimarta, Nelly Florida Riama, Suko Prayitno Adi, Bagus Adi Wibowo, and Dwikorita Karnawati

A major earthquakes struck the north of Flores island, in Nusa Tenggara Timur, Indonesia, on 14  December 2021 at 10:20:22 local time, the hypocenter is 7.59°S, 122.26°E, depth 12.0 km, with moment magnitude Mw 7.4. The faulting orientation of the mainshock, fault plane was strike = 290°, dip = 89°, and rake = 177°, and the auxiliary plane was strike = 21°, dip = 87°, and rake = 1°, respectively, is possibly related to thrust fault in the sea. Focal mechanism solutions for the earthquakes indicate rupture occurred thrust fault with large dip angle. The mainshock was followed by low aftershocks productivity may due to homogeneous faulting systems and relatively uniform stress state in that region. We analyze aftershock hypocenter relocation and gravity anomaly, slip distribution, coulomb stress and seismic hazard (PSHA) to investigate the earthquake characteristics and seismic hazard analysis. The distribution of hypocenter relocations show that aftershock ruptured distribute between two block of high gravity anomaly, its indicate that it was not the new fault. The inversion of the source model shows several time periods of energy release with three main peaks. These temporal rupture suggest repetition of a large scale slip on the large asperity. The models of coulomb stress indicate that static stress transfer due to the Mw 7.4 earthquake is suitable with aftershock spatial distribution. We compute the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Flores region for Earthquake mitigation

How to cite: Rohadi, S., Prakoso, T. A., Yatimantoro, T., Rahman, A., Sunardi, B., Adimarta, A., Riama, N. F., Adi, S. P., Adi Wibowo, B., and Karnawati, D.: The 14 December 2021, Mw 7.4 Flores Earthquake: Review of the hypocenter relocation, slip distribution, coulomb stress, and seismic hazard, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8366, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8366, 2022.

EGU22-8492 | Presentations | SM1.1

Boundary and elastic parameter sensitivity kernels for a receiver function waveform misfit in a global earth. 

Janneke de Jong, Hanneke Paulssen, and Jeannot Trampert

The receiver function method is widely used in seismology to study the characteristics of Earth’s major discontinuities. Ray theory and an assumed planar incoming wave are often used to estimate which regions of the mantle, crust and discontinuity contribute to the receiver function. To test the validity of these simplifying assumptions, we derived the adjoint source of a receiver function waveform misfit and applied the adjoint method on synthetic teleseismic receiver functions to calculate their sensitivity kernels of both subsurface velocity parameters in the mantle and boundary topography on the discontinuity. Here we focused on the P660s-phase and the 660-discontinuity. We observe a strong sensitivity to the wavefield far away from the discontinuity, particularly for the Vp sensitivity kernel. It has a strong sensitivity to the Fresnel zone of the P660s-phase before conversion, but also to the scatterers of the direct P-wave and other phases that arrive within the considered time window. This implies that mapping the observations solely to the P660s ray paths and ray-theoretical conversion points might be too simplistic and lead to inaccuracies in the conclusions. In general, a receiver function has a strong dependance on the background velocity models everywhere in the mantle. The boundary topography kernels have a sensitivity predominantly to the area near the conversion point. The diameter of the high-sensitivity area is roughly 300 km for an event with a source halftime of 5 s. Relatively weak sensitivity to the source region and the scatterers of the direct P-wave are observed in the boundary kernels as well. Our results show that using the adjoint method on receiver function waveforms to invert for mantle structure and boundary topography is possible and advisable. It allows for an automatic consideration of all contributing phases and scatterers arriving within the chosen time window, which is important for correctly dealing with velocity perturbations. The boundary kernels demonstrate that the receiver functions’ sensitivity to topography is concentrated to the region around the ray theoretical conversion point.

How to cite: de Jong, J., Paulssen, H., and Trampert, J.: Boundary and elastic parameter sensitivity kernels for a receiver function waveform misfit in a global earth., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8492, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8492, 2022.

EGU22-8496 | Presentations | SM1.1

Characteristic of Source and Seismic Hazard Analysis of Majene Earthquake Mw 6.2, January 15, 2021 

Retno Agung Prasetyo, Supriyanto Rohadi, Rahmat Setyo Yuliatmoko, Aditya Rahman, Yusuf Hadi Perdana, Nelly Florida Riama, Suko Prayitno Adi, Dwikorita Karnawati, and Bambang Setiyo Prayitno

A major earthquakes struck the Majene Regency, in West Sulawesi province, Indonesia, on 15 January 2021 at 02.28 local time, the hypocenter is 2.97°S, 118.99°E, depth 38.0 km, with moment magnitude Mw 6.2 with an epicenter located about 6 km Northeast Majene, West Sulawesi. This large event causing extensive damage, great economic loss and casualties in the Majene city and surrounding region. The mainshock preceded by significant foreshock on 14 January 2021 at 14.35 local time, 3°S, 118.94°E, depth 10.0 km Mw 5.9, epicenter was located at about 4 km Northwest of Majene. The faulting orientation of the mainshock, and foreshock was strike = 330°, dip = 17°, and slip = 59°, and strike = 353°, dip = 29°, and slip = 61°, respectively, is possibly related to Mamuju-Majene thrust fault. Focal mechanism solutions for the earthquakes indicate rupture occurred thrust fault with low dip angle. The mainshock was followed by low aftershocks productivity may due to homogeneous faulting systems and relatively uniform stress state in that region. We use hypocenter relocation, stress drop, coulomb stress and seismic hazard (PSHA) to investigate the earthquake characteristics and seismic hazard analysis. The distribution of hypocenter relocations indicate aftershock ruptured northern extension of the mainshock. This result supports that the highest of acceleration is the north component of the three component recorded acceleration, this detect the components of directivity toward the north for the foreshock distribution.

How to cite: Prasetyo, R. A., Rohadi, S., Yuliatmoko, R. S., Rahman, A., Perdana, Y. H., Riama, N. F., Adi, S. P., Karnawati, D., and Prayitno, B. S.: Characteristic of Source and Seismic Hazard Analysis of Majene Earthquake Mw 6.2, January 15, 2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8496, 2022.

EGU22-8536 | Presentations | SM1.1

The DEnse mulTi-paramEtriC observations and 4D high resoluTion imaging (DETECT) experiment, a new paradigm for near-fault observations 

Matteo Picozzi, Antonio Giovanni Iaccarino, Dino Bindi, Fabrice Cotton, Gaetano Festa, Angelo Strollo, Aldo Zollo, Tony Alfredo Stabile, Guido Maria Adinolfi, Claudio Martino, Ortensia Amoroso, Raffaella De Matteis, Vincenzo Convertito, and Daniele Spallarossa and the DETECT team

Near-fault observations can provide insights into the physical process interaction between fault slip activation, fluid presence/migration and seismicity production, processes acting at different timescales that generate large earthquakes.

The DETECT experiment aims at exploiting very dense seismic networks deployed across a segmented faults system to foster the development of scientific integrated methodologies for monitoring and imaging the faults behavior during the inter-seismic phase. Target of the monitoring is to: detect and track space-time trends of different source parameters that could be related to a preparation process leading to a larger earthquake; investigate the frictional and stress states of the fault segments to anticipate the characteristics of the future large earthquake (e.g., hypocenter but also future large seismic energy release locations); analyze the interactions between the different fault segments to model/anticipate potential cascade effects.

The DETECT experiment is carried out in the Irpinia area (southern Italy), one of the regions in Italy and Europe showing the highest seismic hazard. Since august 2021, a constellation of 20 seismic arrays, for a total of 200 seismic stations (20 broad-band sensors and 180 short-periods), has been installed over the fault segments responsible for the Ms 6.9, 1980 Irpinia earthquake, the strongest and most destructive seismic event of the last half-century in southern Italy.

DETECT results from a joint effort of local Universities, National and International Research Institutes. A novel and crucial aspect is that, differently from most studies concerning intra-plate earthquakes which are usually carried out after that large magnitude earthquakes have occurred, DETECT aims to put us in advantageous position and to unveil the preparatory process that generate large earthquakes and anticipate the role of the segmentation by studying at one time different fault segments, some of which are in rather late stage of their seismic cycle.

With this contribution, we aim to present the DETECT experiment, the preliminary results and foster additional cooperation including complementary expertise to further enrich the partnership.

How to cite: Picozzi, M., Iaccarino, A. G., Bindi, D., Cotton, F., Festa, G., Strollo, A., Zollo, A., Stabile, T. A., Adinolfi, G. M., Martino, C., Amoroso, O., De Matteis, R., Convertito, V., and Spallarossa, D. and the DETECT team: The DEnse mulTi-paramEtriC observations and 4D high resoluTion imaging (DETECT) experiment, a new paradigm for near-fault observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8536, 2022.

EGU22-8652 | Presentations | SM1.1

Testing seismic velocity models with quarry blast data 

Pierre Arroucau, Jessie Mayor, Marc Grunberg, Emmanuelle Nayman, and Guillaume Daniel

Seismic event locations are usually performed by means of iterative, linearized arrival time inversion considering 1D velocity models with fixed data errors. Both the use of inaccurate velocity structure or data error estimates may however affect the quality of event location and uncertainty evaluation. Here, we test a 3D P- and S-wave velocity model built in a previous work for Metropolitan France (the part of France located in Europe) and we compare it with the “Auvergne” 1D velocity model used by BCSF-RéNaSS (Bureau Central Sismologique Français - Réseau National de Surveillance Sismique) using quarry blast data. The reason for using quarry blast data is that, to some extent, their epicentral location and depth are known, which is not the case for earthquakes. We first identify potential active quarries over the territory of Metropolitan France by comparing catalog quarry blast locations with those from quarries visible from satellite images. Relocation is achieved by means of a Hierarchical Bayesian inversion procedure in which not only the hypocentral parameters (longitude, latitude, depth, origin time) are inverted for, but also P- and S-wave arrival time errors. The area of interest is a 1° by 1° zone located between 4°E and 5°E in longitude and 44°N and 45°N in latitude, the region where the Le Teil earthquake occurred (Mw 4.9, 2019/11/11). We first demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to properly determine hypocentral parameters and data noise using two simple synthetic experiments. Then we apply it to real data and relocate 147 quarry blasts that occurred in the region between 1980 and 2020 and that were located wit the “Auvergne” 1D velocity model. Relocations obtained with the 1D and 3D model are rather similar. Estimated data errors are larger, in both cases, than the amplitude of picking uncertainties, meaning that both models could be improved, by seismic arrival time tomography for instance. They are larger in the 3D case, suggesting that, from that point of view, the 1D model is in better agreement with the data. Distances between relocated hypocenters and the closest known quarry are comparable but relocations with the 3D model are characterized by shallower hypocenters than those obtained with the 1D model, so they appear more consistent with the fact that events are quarry blasts. In both cases, some events are quite far away from the closest quarry, suggesting that some of them might be natural events.

How to cite: Arroucau, P., Mayor, J., Grunberg, M., Nayman, E., and Daniel, G.: Testing seismic velocity models with quarry blast data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8652, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8652, 2022.

EGU22-8833 | Presentations | SM1.1

Searching for Mid-Mantle Water with Multitaper-Correlation SS Precursors 

William Frazer and Jeffrey Park

Earth’s mantle transition zone (MTZ) is a possible global water reservoir and may be responsible for long-term (~100 Ma) ocean-mass regulation, driven by plate tectonics and mantle convection. Estimates of MTZ mineral water capacity exceed 1 wt%, far greater than that of rocks of either the upper- or lower-mantle. When water-rich material from the transition zone penetrates the upper or lower mantle, partial melting occurs due to the decrease in water capacity after phase transition, generating a reduction in seismic velocities. This process can add an additional low-velocity zone (LVZ) that can be imaged above(below) the 410(660)-km discontinuities, if melt is present. Depending on the melt fraction and wetting angle at mineral-grain boundaries, decreases in shear velocity of 0.5-2.6% can be generated. Seismic receiver functions have detected velocity reductions both above and below the MTZ, interpreted to be partial melting induced by high water content under the Alpine orogeny, in the deep Japan-slab subduction zone, and across the western United States. Since much of Earth lacks seismic stations, we apply SS precursors to conduct a global survey for such LVZs. The precursors to the SS phase reflect off interfaces near the source-receiver midpoint, so seismic stations are not required to be located above the target region. Detection and interpretation of LVZs surrounding sharp positive-velocity gradients, such as the 410- or 660-km discontinuity, is often complicated by side lobes, an artifact of common signal-processing routines. To address this challenge, we develop an SS precursor method based on the multitaper-correlation (MTC) technique. MTC allows for analysis at higher frequency, leading to finer depth resolution, and can increase the number of useful data records. We conduct MTC SS-precursor analysis for seismic waveforms recorded on the ~125 stations of the Global Seismographic Network to benchmark our new method and search for LVZs. Results will be compared to LVZs interpreted from previous seismic analysis.

How to cite: Frazer, W. and Park, J.: Searching for Mid-Mantle Water with Multitaper-Correlation SS Precursors, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8833, 2022.

EGU22-9062 | Presentations | SM1.1

Investigating Vrancea intermediate depth seismic activity in Romania using automatic waveform processing methods 

Natalia Poiata, Bogdan Grecu, Raluca Dinescu, Felix Borleanu, and Dragos Tataru

Seismic activity in Romania is dominated by the intermediate-depth earthquakes generated inside the seismogenic body of the Vrancea seismic zone extending to the depth of 180 km. This earthquakes represent the main source of seismic hazard for Romania and neighbouring countries, with the most recent largest events of M 7.7 and 7.4 in 1940 and 1977 that caused significant and widespread destruction. Space distribution of the intermediate-depth earthquakes from Vrancea is constrained to a compact volume (60-180 km in depth and 20x50 km areal extent) falling into the category of, so called, “seismic nests”, which have peculiar and not well understood seismogenic mechanisms.

We present first results obtained by applying the automated waveform analysis schemes to the detection, location and characterization of seismicity from the Vrancea zone to the continuous data recorded at seismic stations of the Romanian seismic network. We evaluate the performance of the methods like network-based full-waveform coherency earthquake detection and location and the template-based waveform similarity analysis for building a detailed view of seismic activity in space and time and to provide a fully automated workflow for continuous seismic data analysis. We use case-specific, for Vrancea seismic region, synthetic example to test the detection and location scheme setup and resolution. The real dataset of continuous seismic data focuses on the two month time period around the recent, moderate (M 5.6) December 27, 2016 earthquake.

The preliminary results of the automated detection and location analysis indicate reduced foreshock and aftershock activity for this event. According to the Romanian earthquake catalog, this appears to be a common pattern for moderate (M ~5.0-6.0) magnitude events. We also discuss the results of the template-based waveform similarity analysis for the detected and located events, as well as how the combination of the two methods can contribute to the enhanced seismic monitoring and hazard assessment.

How to cite: Poiata, N., Grecu, B., Dinescu, R., Borleanu, F., and Tataru, D.: Investigating Vrancea intermediate depth seismic activity in Romania using automatic waveform processing methods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9062, 2022.

EGU22-9192 | Presentations | SM1.1

Recalculating the local magnitude of events in the Hungarian National Seismological Bulletin 

Marietta Csatlós and Bálint Süle

Local magnitude is one of the oldest and widely used term for characterizing the size of seismic events. Mostly based on the maximum amplitude measured on the components of the seismograms associated with the seismic event. The events in the Hungarian National Seismological Bulletin were relocated by Bondar et al. (2018). Before 2015 the bulletin did not contain amplitudes therefore it was not possible to calculate new local magnitudes for the new hypocenters. Moreover, the magnitudes were calculated by different methodology before 2015.

In this study, all three components of all available waveforms were collected for the events occurred between 1996 and 2016, and the local magnitudes were recalculated. Thus, we present a consistent data set for the whole period. Magnitude values based on both horizontal and vertical components are presented.

Amplitudes were measured on all three components, thus it was possible to compare the maximum amplitudes of the horizontal and vertical components recorded at stations in different geological conditions. For stations located on sediment, generally higher amplitude values were obtained on the horizontal components. The horizontal amplitude was 2.5 or 3 times larger for the Great Hungarian Plain stations on thick sediments. The differences between stations on firm bed rock were smaller.

The collected waveforms and amplitude measurements provide the opportunity to perform the calibration of the local magnitude scale to the geological conditions of Hungary.

 

 

Bondár, I., Mónus, P., Czanik, Cs., Kiszely, M., Gráczer, Z., Wéber, Z., the AlpArrayWorking Group. 2018: Relocation of Seismicity in the Pannonian Basin Using a Global 3D Velocity Model. Seismological Research Letters. pp.2284-2293.

How to cite: Csatlós, M. and Süle, B.: Recalculating the local magnitude of events in the Hungarian National Seismological Bulletin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9192, 2022.

EGU22-10192 | Presentations | SM1.1

Remote Reconnaissance Mission to the 14th August 2021 Haiti Earthquake; remote sensing and building damage assessments 

Michael Whitworth, Giorgia Giardina, Camilla Penney, Luigi Di Sarno, Keith Adams, Tracy Kijewski-Correa, Josh Macabuag, Fatemeh Foroughnia, Valentina Macchiarulo, Mobin Ojaghi, Alessandra Orfeo, Francesco Pugliese, Kökcan Dönmez, Jacob Black, and Yasemin d Aktas

Post-earthquake reconnaissance missions are critical to understand the event characteristics, identify building and infrastructure vulnerabilities, and improve future construction practice. However, in-field missions can present logistic and safety challenges that do not make them viable in every post-disaster scenario. Remote sensing technique can be used to rapidly collect a large amount information that can be used to enrich the post-event learning process. While the possibility to deploy teams in the field remain a valuable asset for an integrated understanding of technical and socio-economic factors, a mix of remote and in-field reconnaissance activities can be a way forward in post-disaster management.

This work presents the results of a hybrid mission mobilised by the Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT) after the 2021 Haiti earthquake. On 14 August 2021, a 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck the Tiburon Peninsula in the Caribbean nation of Haiti, approximately 150km east of the capital Port au Prince. The event was followed by numerous aftershocks up to magnitude 5.7, and tiggered over 1000 landslides. Over 2000 people lost their lives, with over 15,000 injured and over 137,000 houses damaged or destroyed. The estimated economic impact is of the order of US$1.6 billion. Due the complex political and security situation in Haiti, coupled with the global pandemic, a full in field mission was not considered feasible, so a hybrid mission was designed instead.

First, open-source information was collected and used to characterise the seismic event, analyse the strong ground motion and compare to established national and international earthquake codes and standard. Second, remote sensing techniques including Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Optical/Multispectral imagery were used to understand the earthquake mechanism, the ground displacement distribution and the possibility to detect landslide on a regional scale. The general applicability of remote sensing technique in the context of post disaster assessment was also evaluated. Finally, the earthquake impact on different building typologies in Haiti was investigated through the damage assessment of over 2000 buildings comprising schools, hospitals, churches and housing. This was done in collaboration with the Structural Extreme Events Reconnaissance (StEER) team, who mobilised a team of local non-experts to rapidly record building damage.

This talk summarises the mission setup and findings, and discusses the benefits of and difficulties encountered during this hybrid reconnaissance.

How to cite: Whitworth, M., Giardina, G., Penney, C., Di Sarno, L., Adams, K., Kijewski-Correa, T., Macabuag, J., Foroughnia, F., Macchiarulo, V., Ojaghi, M., Orfeo, A., Pugliese, F., Dönmez, K., Black, J., and d Aktas, Y.: Remote Reconnaissance Mission to the 14th August 2021 Haiti Earthquake; remote sensing and building damage assessments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10192, 2022.

EGU22-10613 | Presentations | SM1.1

Meeting the challenging performance requirements of Global Seismic Observatory Networks with the new Trillium 360 GSN 

Geoffrey Bainbridge, Bruce Townsend, Sarvesh Upadhyaya, and Valarie Hamilton

Nanometrics new Trillium 360 GSN seismometer embodies the culmination of many years of research and technology innovation as well as extensive collaboration with and input from the scientific community interested in very broadband seismometry.  Several generations of seismometers with 240 or 360 second corner frequency have demonstrated successive improvements in self-noise at both very low and high frequencies.  The most recent development has produced the lowest self-noise of any vault seismometer, and is the only seismometer currently being manufactured that meets the performance requirements of a primary seismometer for the Global Seismographic Network and Geoscope. 

Posthole, Borehole and Vault form factors are available and being manufactured and delivered to the GSN.  Performance testing of several units of each model type has been carried out at the facilities of GSN participating member institutions.  The results of the performance testing are reviewed and interpreted, and compared with other co-located instrument types including the venerable STS-1.  Field deployment is now proceeding, to upgrade networks with the Trillium 360 GSN seismometer.  We will show results from new deployments as available at the time of the 2022 SSA conference.  

We will also present the Trillium 360 roadmap, with a smaller low-power version for ocean bottom and portable land deployments in development for 2022, and early test results as available.  The goal of this next phase is to bring very broadband performance to any location and environment at reduced logistical cost.

How to cite: Bainbridge, G., Townsend, B., Upadhyaya, S., and Hamilton, V.: Meeting the challenging performance requirements of Global Seismic Observatory Networks with the new Trillium 360 GSN, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10613, 2022.

EGU22-11076 | Presentations | SM1.1

Preliminary results of the two seismic sequences in the Vienna Basin in March and April 2021 

María del Puy Papí Isaba, Wolfgang Lenhardt, Rita Meurers, Maria Theresia Apoloner, Helmut Hausmann, Maurizio Mattesini, and Elisa Buforn

We present a preliminary analysis of two seismic sequences between March and April 2021, near Neunkirchen and Gloggnitz, about 50 km from Vienna, Austria, and around 15 km apart from each other. Despite the moderate magnitudes, the recent earthquakes in the epicentral region, in the southern part of the Vienna Basin, were felt in the epicentral region and up to a distance of 300 km away. 

The Neunkirchen sequence started on March 11th, 2021. According to the Austrian Seismological Service at ZAMG, the last recorded earthquake occurred on May 12th, 2021. Over 245 earthquakes, with local magnitudes ranging from 0.5 to 4.6, were recorded until mid of May 2021. Out of the 245 earthquakes, 21 were felt by the population (1.8 ≤ ML ≤ 4.6), and two of them (ML4.6 and ML4.4) caused minor damage in the epicentral region. According to the Austrian Seismological Service, the depths of this sequence ranged from 7 to 12 km. 

The Gloggnitz sequence started on April 1st, 2021, and continued until May 8th, 2021. The epicenters of 65 detected earthquakes were located. Four earthquakes were felt, from which two (ML3.6 on April 20th and ML3.8 on April 23rd) caused slight damage. The local magnitudes of this seismic sequence ranged from -0.3 to 3.8; depths varied between 4 and 7 km. 

The relocation of the earthquakes of both sequences was carried out using the NonLinLoc by Lomax et al. (2019). We obtained the ellipse error for all relocated earthquakes. The focal mechanisms of the largest earthquakes were calculated using Seismic Moment-Tensor-Inversion. For the remaining events, a joint fault-plane solution was investigated. Furthermore, we compiled and analyzed the macro-seismic questionnaires of all felt earthquakes in the series and produced intensity maps (EMS-98). We compared the intensity attenuation as a function of distance with the newly available data and derived an Intensity Prediction Equation (IPE) for the region.

How to cite: Papí Isaba, M. P., Lenhardt, W., Meurers, R., Apoloner, M. T., Hausmann, H., Mattesini, M., and Buforn, E.: Preliminary results of the two seismic sequences in the Vienna Basin in March and April 2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11076, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11076, 2022.

EGU22-11974 | Presentations | SM1.1

Covariance Matrix Analysis and Classification of Low-Frequency Tectonic Seismic Activity in Shikoku, Japan 

Andres Barajas, Cyril Journeau, and Nikolai Shapiro

Low-frequency seismic tremors and earthquakes play an important role in the understanding of the seismic processes occurring in seismogenic fault zones and volcanic systems. The covariance matrix, a method that analyses the spatial coherence of continuous seismic noise records on the surface, has proven to be an efficient tool to detect and localize seismovolcanic processes, allowing the classification between local earthquakes, tremors, and low-frequency earthquakes. We use this method in the analysis of tectonic seismic activity in the region of Shikoku, Japan, where a high rate of tremors and low-frequency earthquakes have been previously reported. The classification of the seismic activity over the spectral width and the network response function, shows distinct characteristic distributions from studies done in volcanic systems. We perform a series of synthetic tests that reproduce the classification patterns and spectral widths observed in volcanic and tectonic systems, allowing us to recognize fundamental differences in the duration, frequency and distribution patterns of volcanic and tectonic tremors and low-frequency earthquakes. 

How to cite: Barajas, A., Journeau, C., and Shapiro, N.: Covariance Matrix Analysis and Classification of Low-Frequency Tectonic Seismic Activity in Shikoku, Japan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11974, 2022.

Most of the largest volcanic activity in the world occurs in remote places as deep oceans or poorly monitored oceanic islands. Thus, our capacity of monitoring volcanoes is limited to remote sensing and global geophysical observations. However, the rapid estimation of volcanic eruption parameters is needed for scientific understanding of the eruptive process and rapid hazard estimation. We first a method to rapidly identify large volcanic explosions, based on analysis of seismic data. The method automatically detects and locate long period (0.01-0.03Hz) signals associated with physical processes close to the Earth surface, by analyzing surface waves recorded at global seismic stations. With this methodology, we promptly detect the January 15, 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption, among many other signals associated with known and unknown processes. We further use the waves generate by the Hunga Tonga volcanic explosion and estimate important first-order parameters of the eruption (Force spectrum, impulse). We then relate the estimated parameters with the volcanic explosivity index (VEI). Our estimate of VEI~6, indicate how the Hunga Tonga eruption is among the largest volcanic activity ever recorded with modern geophysical instrumentation, and can provide new insights about the physics of large volcanoes.

How to cite: Poli, P. and Shapiro, N.: Seismological characterization of dynamics parameter of the Hunga Tonga explosion from teleseismic waves, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13572, 2022.

EGU22-13576 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2

The 2022 Tonga tsunami in the marginal seas of the northwestern Pacific Ocean 

Elizaveta Tsukanova, Alisa Medvedeva, Igor Medvedev, and Tatiana Ivelskaya

The Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption on 15 January 2022 created a tsunami affecting the entire Pacific Ocean. The observed tsunami was found to have a dual mechanism and was caused both by the wave incoming from the source area and by an atmospheric wave propagating with the speed of sound. The tsunami was clearly recorded in the marginal seas of the northwestern Pacific, including the Sea of Japan, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea, in particular on the coasts of Kamchatka, the Kuril Islands and the Aleutian Islands. We examined high-resolution records (1-min sampling) of about 50 tide gauges and 15 air pressure stations in these seas for the period of 14-17 January 2022. On the Russian coast, the highest wave with a trough-to-crest wave height of 1.4 m was recorded at Vodopadnaya, on the southeastern Kamchatka Peninsula; on the coasts of the Aleutian Islands the tsunami waves were even higher, up to 2 m. Based on numerical modelling we estimated the arrival time of the gravitational tsunami waves from the source. We revealed that the character of sea level oscillations for most of the stations evidently changed before these waves arrived. A comparative analysis of sea level and atmospheric data indicated that these changes were probably caused by the atmospheric waves generated by the volcanic eruption.

How to cite: Tsukanova, E., Medvedeva, A., Medvedev, I., and Ivelskaya, T.: The 2022 Tonga tsunami in the marginal seas of the northwestern Pacific Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13576, 2022.

EGU22-13578 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2

Global ionospheric signature of the tsunami triggered by the 2022 Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption 

Edhah Munaibari, Lucie Rolland, Anthony Sladen, and Bertrand Delouis

The Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption on Jan. 15, 2022 released a highly energetic atmospheric pressure wave that was observed all around the globe in different types of measurements (e.g., barometers and infrasound sensors, satellites images, ionospheric measurements, etc.). In addition, the eruption triggered a meteo-tsunami followed by a series of tsunami waves. Tide gauges across the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic and the Indian oceans recorded significant sea-level changes related to the primary eruption.

We focus our presentation on the imprint of tsunami waves on the ionosphere. We make use of an extensive collection of Global Navigation Satellites Systems (GNSS) data recorded by multi-constellation GNSS receivers across the Pacific Ocean and beyond. The observation of tsunami-induced ionospheric signatures is made possible by the efficient coupling of tsunami waves with the surrounding atmosphere and the generation of internal gravity waves (IGWs). With the help of GNSS systems (Beidou, GPS, Galileo, GLONASS, QZSS), ionospheric disturbances can be monitored and observed by utilizing the Total Electron Content (TEC) derived from the delay that the ionosphere imposes in the electromagnetic signals transmitted by the GNSS satellites. We identify and characterize the ionospheric TEC signatures following the passage of the Tonga tsunami. We investigate the influence of known key ambient parameters such as the local geomagnetic field, the tsunami propagation direction, and the distance to the tsunami source on the amplitude of the observed signatures. Moreover, we correlate the detected tsunami-induced TEC signatures with sea level measurements to assess their tsunami origins. And we contrast the identified TEC signatures in the Pacific Ocean with their analogs induced by the tsunami triggered by the Mar. 4, 2021 8.1 Mw Kermadec Islands earthquake. Both events took place relatively in the same geographical region, with the former being less complex (no meteo-tsunami, shorter duration, and about one order of magnitude smaller in amplitude). Finally, we provide estimations of the tsunami amplitude at the ocean level in the areas crossed by GNSS radio signals, some of them not covered by open ocean sea-level sensors (DART buoys).

How to cite: Munaibari, E., Rolland, L., Sladen, A., and Delouis, B.: Global ionospheric signature of the tsunami triggered by the 2022 Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13578, 2022.

EGU22-13579 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2

Modeling low-frequency Rayleigh waves excited by the Jan. 15, 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano 

Shenjian Zhang, Rongjiang Wang, and Torsten Dahm

Low-frequency seismic energy whose spectrum is centered at certain narrow bands has been detected after violent volcano eruptions. Normal-mode analysis related this signal to the resonances between the atmosphere and the solid earth.
After the powerful eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano on Jan. 15, 2022, this low-frequency signal is found on long period and very long period seismometers worldwide. The amplitude spectrum of the signal for this eruption consists of three clear peaks locating at 3.72, 4.61 and 6.07 mHz, instead of two distinct bands for previous cases. The spectrogram analysis shows that this low-frequency energy lasts for several hour and is independent of air wave arrival, while the cross-correlation result confirms that the signal travels as Rayleigh waves with a speed of 3.68 km/s. In this study, we summarize our findings on the observation, and show our synthetic waveforms to provide a possible explanation for the source of this signal. We suggest that the atmospheric oscillations near the volcano excited by the eruption act as an enduring external force on the surface of the solid earth, and produce Rayleigh waves propagating all over the world.

How to cite: Zhang, S., Wang, R., and Dahm, T.: Modeling low-frequency Rayleigh waves excited by the Jan. 15, 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13579, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13579, 2022.

The population and built infrastructure of the Kingdom of Tonga are highly exposed to ocean- and climate-related coastal hazards. The archipelago was impacted on January 15, 2022, by a destructive tsunami caused by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcanic eruption. Weeks later, several islands were still cut off from the world, this situation was made worse by covid-19-related international lockdowns and no precise idea of the magnitude and pattern of destruction. Like in most Pacific islands, the Kingdom of Tonga lacks an accurate population and infrastructure database. The occurrence of events such as this in remote island communities highlights the need for (1) precisely knowing the distribution of residential and public buildings, (2) evaluating what proportion of those would be vulnerable to a tsunami depending on various run-up scenarios, (3) providing tools to the local authorities for elaborating efficient evacuation plans and securing essential services outside the hazard zones. Using a GIS-based dasymetric mapping method previously tested in New Caledonia for assessing, calibrating, and mapping population distribution at high resolution, we produce maps that combine population clusters, critical elevation contours, and the precise location of essential services (hospitals, airports, shopping centers, etc.), backed up by before–after imagery accessible online. Results show that 62% of the population on the main island of Tonga lives in well-defined clusters between sea level and the 15 m elevation contour, which is also the value of the maximum tsunami run-up reported on this occasion. The patterns of vulnerability thus obtained for each island in the archipelago, are further compared to the destruction patterns recorded after the earthquake-related 2009 tsunami in Tonga, thereby also allowing us to rank exposure and potential for cumulative damage as a function of tsunami cause and source-area. By relying on low-cost tools and incomplete datasets for rapid implementation in the context of natural disasters, this approach can assist in (1) guiding emergency rescue targets, and (2) elaborating future land-use planning priorities for disaster risk-reduction purposes. By involving an interactive mapping tool to be shared with the resident population, the approach aims to enhance disaster-preparedness and resilience. It works for all types of natural hazards and is easily transferable to other insular settings.

How to cite: Thomas, B. E. O., Roger, J., and Gunnell, Y.: A rapid, low-cost, high-resolution, map-based assessment of the January 15, 2022 tsunami impact on population and buildings in the Kingdom of Tonga, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13580, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13580, 2022.

The phreatic eruption of Hunga-Tonga on January 15, 2022 was so energetic that it excited globe circling air-waves. These wave packets with a dominant period of 30 minutes have been observed in single barograms even after completing at least  four orbits or 6 days after the eruption. Constructive and destructive interference between waves that have left the source region in opposite direction lead to the emergence of standing pressure waves: normal modes of the atmosphere.

 

We report on individual modes of spherical harmonic degree between 30 and 80 covering the frequency bend from 0.2 mHz to 0.8 mHz. These modes belong to the Lamb wave equivalent modes with a phase velocity of 313 m/s.  They are trapped to the Earth’s surface, decay exponentially with altitude and their particle motion is longitudinal and horizontal. The restoring force is dominated by incompressibility. 

 

In the frequency band where we observe these modes the mode branches do not cross with mode branches of the solid Earth. Hence we do not expect any significant coupling with seismic normal modes of the solid Earth. Such a crossing occurs at 3.7mHz and aboce.

 

How to cite: Widmer-Schnidrig, R.: Observation of acoustic normal modes of the atmosphere after the 2022 Hunga-Tonga eruption., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13581, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13581, 2022.

The explosive eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano on 15th of January 2022 impacted the Earth, its oceans and atmosphere on a global scale. Witnesses report an audible “bang” as a result of the event in distances of up to several thousand kilometers. With infrasound sensors this sound wave can be detected where the frequency content or the amplitude of the signal renders the event inaudible to the human ear. Infrasound sensors are distributed globally, a selection of these stations upload their data in real time to publicly available servers. In combination with Open Source libraries such as obspy or scipy it is possible to use these data sources to observe the atmospheric disturbances caused by the eruption on a global scale in near real time. With a minimum of data processing not only the first arrival peak of the atmospheric lamb wave can be identified at most stations but also further passes of the wave as it propagates around the planet several times. Having large amounts of publicly available data is crucial in that process. New data chunks can be analyzed and displayed immediately while the signal is still ongoing because data access requests are not required. Additionally, having immediate access to a large dataset allows for big data analysis and reduces the necessity to consider outliers at individual stations and increases the chance to identify the signal after multiple days when overall signal to noise ratios have decreased.

How to cite: Eckel, F., Garcés, M., and Colet, M.: The 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga event: Using Open Source to observe a volcanic eruption on a global scale in near real time, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13582, 2022.

EGU22-13583 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2 | Highlight

Satellite observations and modeling of the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption 

Simon Carn, Benjamin Andrews, Valentina Aquila, Christina Cauley, Peter Colarco, Josef Dufek, Tobias Fischer, Lexi Kenis, Nickolay Krotkov, Can Li, Larry Mastin, Paul Newman, and Paul Wallace

The 15 January 2022 eruption of the submarine Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano (Tonga) ranks among the largest volcanic explosions of the satellite remote sensing era, and perhaps the last century. It shares many characteristics with the 1883 Krakatau eruption (Indonesia), including atmospheric pressure waves and tsunamis, and the phreatomagmatic interaction of magma and seawater likely played a major role in the dynamics of both events. A portion of the HTHH eruption column rose to lower mesospheric altitudes (~55 km) and the umbrella cloud extent (~500 km diameter at ~30-35 km altitude) rivalled that of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, indicative of very high mass eruption rates. However, sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions measured in the HTHH volcanic cloud (~0.4 Tg) were significantly lower than the post-Pinatubo SO2 loading (~10–15 Tg SO2), and on this basis we would expect minimal climate impacts from the HTHH event. Yet, in the aftermath of the eruption satellite observations show a persistent stratospheric aerosol layer with the characteristics of sulfate aerosol, along with a large stratospheric water vapor anomaly. At the time of writing, the origin, composition and eventual impacts of this stratospheric gas and aerosol veil are unclear. We present the preliminary results of a multi-disciplinary approach to understanding the HTHH eruption, including 1D- and 3D-modeling of the eruption column coupled to a 3D atmospheric general circulation model (NASA’s GEOS-5 model), volatile mass balance considerations involving potential magmatic, seawater and atmospheric volatile and aerosol sources, and an extensive suite of satellite observations. Analysis of the HTHH eruption will provide new insight into the dynamics and atmospheric impacts of large, shallow submarine eruptions. Such eruptions have likely occurred throughout Earth’s history but have never been observed with modern instrumentation.

How to cite: Carn, S., Andrews, B., Aquila, V., Cauley, C., Colarco, P., Dufek, J., Fischer, T., Kenis, L., Krotkov, N., Li, C., Mastin, L., Newman, P., and Wallace, P.: Satellite observations and modeling of the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13583, 2022.

EGU22-13584 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2 | Highlight

The 15 January 2022 Hunga eruption, Tonga – first petrographic and geochemical results 

Shane Cronin, Marco Brenna, Taaniela Kula, Ingrid Ukstins, David Adams, Jie Wu, Joa Paredes Marino, Geoff Kilgour, Graham Leonard, James White, Simon Barker, and Darren Gravley

The phreatoplinan eruption of the shallow submarine Hunga Volcano Tonga formed global air-pressure waves, regional tsunami and an up to 55 km-high eruption column. Despite its large explosive magnitude, the magma erupted were similar to past compositions, and comprised crystal poor (<8 wt% total; plag>cpx>opx) andesite with ~57-63 wt% silica glass. Low magnitude Surtseyan eruptions in 2009-2015 formed from small pockets of andesite that ascended slowly, resulting in high microphenocryst and microlite contents. Large eruptions, including events in ~AD200 and AD1100 and the 2022 event drew magma rapidly from a ~5-7 km deep mid-crustal reservoir. Rapid decompression and quenching (augmented by magma-water interaction) records the heterogeneity of the reservoir, with mingled glass textures and cryptic mixing of subtly different melts. The 2022 feldspar phenocrysts show more mafic melt inclusion compositions than host glass, clear uniform cores and thin rims evidencing ~1 month-long changes caused by decompression, rise and internal mingling of subtlety different melts. CPX phenocrysts show uniform cores a variety of more mafic and similar melt inclusions to the bulk glass, and thin overgrowth rims reflecting only decompression and mingling. Lithic fragments (<8wt%) include common hydrothermal minerals (sulphides, quartz etc). Without evidence of a mafic trigger, or crystalisation induced overpressures, this extremely violent eruption was triggered by top-down processes that led to rapid exhumation/decompression of magma and very efficient explosive magma-water interaction. This could include any, or all of: flank collapse; hydrothermal seal fracturing and ingress of water into the upper magma system and caldera collapse. Subsequent earthquakes suggest that the crustal magma system was rapidly recharged in the days following the eruption.

How to cite: Cronin, S., Brenna, M., Kula, T., Ukstins, I., Adams, D., Wu, J., Paredes Marino, J., Kilgour, G., Leonard, G., White, J., Barker, S., and Gravley, D.: The 15 January 2022 Hunga eruption, Tonga – first petrographic and geochemical results, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13584, 2022.

EGU22-13585 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2

Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha’apai Jan 15, 2022 eruption: Assembly of heterogeneous magma sources recorded in melt inclusions from plagioclase, clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene. 

Ingrid Ukstins, Shane Cronin, David Adams, Jie Wu, Joali Paredes Marino, Marco Brenna, Ian Smith, and Isabelle Brooks-Clarke

The 15 Jan 2022 eruption of Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha’apai was the largest explosive volcanic event in the last 30 years. These islands represent the subaerially exposed summit of the Hunga Volcano, merged into a single land mass during the most recent eruption in 2014-2015. The 2022 eruption likely represents a 1-in-1000-year event for the Hunga Volcano, with the previous large-magnitude eruption occurring in ~1100 CE during a series of caldera-forming events. The 2022 erupted magma is plagioclase-, orthopyroxene- and clinopyroxene-bearing basaltic andesite to andesite dominated by blocky, poorly vesicular glassy ash with lesser amounts of vesicular pumiceous ash and fine lapilli. Melt Inclusions (MIs) hosted in plagioclase, clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene are abundant and glassy, some displaying shrinkage bubbles, with no evidence of secondary crystallization along the walls or within the MI glass. The groundmass glass and MI in the three main phenocryst phases were analysed for major, trace and volatile element concentrations to enable identification of magmatic sources and to better constrain processes happening at depth. Preliminary data indicate that plagioclase phenocrysts range from An93 to An78, and MI range from 54.1 to 58.7 wt % SiO2, with MgO from 2.5 to 5.3 wt %. Clinopyroxene phenocrysts range from En42 to En50, and MI range from 51.6 to 65.1 wt % SiO2, with MgO from 1.1 to 5.7 wt %. Orthopyroxene phenocrysts range from En68 to En77, and MI range from 55.7 to 59.6 wt % SiO2, with MgO from 2.5 to 5.3 wt %. Clinopyroxene MI span the full range of SiO2 compositions observed from the Hunga Volcano, from the host 2022 event (SiO2: ~57.5 wt %), the 1100 CE event (SiO2: ~60 wt %), the 2014-2015 event (SiO2: ~60.5 wt %), and the most evolved 2009 event (SiO2: ~63 wt %) and extend an additional ~4 wt % SiO2 to more mafic compositions. Orthopyroxene MI most closely resemble the 1100 CE event and the average groundmass glass compositions of the 2022 event. Plagioclase MI overlap the least silicic compositions observed in the 2022 groundmass glass (58.6 wt% SiO2) and extend down to 54 wt % SiO2, overlapping the main field of clinopyroxene MI. Both plagioclase and clinopyroxene MI tend to show higher MgO as compared to the 2022 groundmass glass at the same SiO2 concentration, whereas orthopyroxene shows lower MgO than the groundmass glass. SO3 in MI ranges up to 1600 ppm, significantly higher than the 2022 groundmass glass which averages 200 ppm, with both plagioclase and clinopyroxene MI preserving the highest observed concentrations. In contrast, Cl concentrations in MI extend to 2000 ppm, with the highest values in orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene, and plagioclase MI are lower and generally overlie the main groundmass glass concentrations (~1300 ppm). F was below detection limits. We postulate that clinopyroxene crystals reflect a more primitive basaltic andesite magma, whereas orthopyroxene crystals were likely derived from the magmatic remnants of the 2009 and 2014/2015 events in the upper magma system, and plagioclase crystals were sourced from the full range of magma sources.

How to cite: Ukstins, I., Cronin, S., Adams, D., Wu, J., Paredes Marino, J., Brenna, M., Smith, I., and Brooks-Clarke, I.: Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha’apai Jan 15, 2022 eruption: Assembly of heterogeneous magma sources recorded in melt inclusions from plagioclase, clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13585, 2022.

EGU22-13586 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2 | Highlight

Post-2015 caldera morphology of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai caldera, Tonga, through drone photogrammetry and summit area bathymetry 

Sönke Stern, Shane Cronin, Marta Ribo, Simon Barker, Marco Brenna, Ian E. M. Smith, Murray Ford, Taaniela Kula, and Rennie Vaiomounga

In December 2014, eruptions began from a submarine vent between the islands of Hunga Tonga and Hunga Ha’apai, 65 km north of Tongatapu, Tonga. The “Hungas” represent small NW and NE remnants of the flanks of a larger edifice, with a ~5 km-diameter collapse caldera south of them. The 2014/15 Surtseyan explosive eruptions lasted for 5 weeks, building a 140 m-high tuff ring.

Deposits on Hunga Ha’apai and tephra fall on Tongatapu record two very large magnitude eruptions producing local pyroclastic density currents and tephra falls of >10 cm-thick >65 km away. These likely derive from the central edifice/caldera. The 2022 eruption produced slightly less tephra fall, but an extremely large explosive event, with regional tsunami indicating substantive topographic change.

Here we report the bathymetric details of the caldera as of November 2015. A multibeam sounder (WASSP) was used to mapping the shallow (<250 m) seafloor concentrating on the edges of the Hunga caldera. These results were combined with an aerial survey of the 2015 tuff cone, using a combination of drone photogrammetry and real-time kinematic GPS surveys. The bathymetry reveals that previous historical eruptions, including 1988 and 2009, and likely many other recent unknown produced a series of well-preserved cones around the rim of the caldera. Aside from the raised ground in the northern caldera produced by the 2009 and 2014/15 eruptions, the southern portion is also elevated to within a few m below sea level, with reefs present. During the 2015 visit, uplifted fresh coral showed that inflation was ongoing and that the caldera was likely in the process of resurgence.

Much of Hunga Tonga and the 2014/2015 cone was destroyed in the 2022 eruptions, with Hunga Ha’apai intact, but dropping vertically by ~10-15 m. The violence of the 2022 eruption was likely augmented by either caldera collapse or flank collapse from the upper edifice, rapidly unroofing the andesitic magma system and enabling efficient water ingress.

This data provides an essential base layer for assessing changes on the ocean floor, especially to determine any caldera or upper-flank changes. Understanding these changes is crucial for future forecasting future volcanic hazards at Hunga and other nearby large submarine volcanoes.

How to cite: Stern, S., Cronin, S., Ribo, M., Barker, S., Brenna, M., Smith, I. E. M., Ford, M., Kula, T., and Vaiomounga, R.: Post-2015 caldera morphology of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai caldera, Tonga, through drone photogrammetry and summit area bathymetry, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13586, 2022.

EGU22-13587 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2

Understanding fragmentation mechanism(s) during the 15 January 2022 Hunga Volcano (Tonga) eruption through particle characteristics 

Joali Paredes-Mariño, James White, Tobias Dürig, Rachel Baxter, Taaniela Kula, Shane Cronin, Ingrid Ukstins, Jie Wu, David Adams, Marco Brenna, and Isabelle Brooks-Clarke

The January 2022 eruption of Hunga Volcano, Tonga is likely the most explosive mafic eruption yet documented. It exhibited dynamics of ash plume expansion and atmospheric pressure waves unlike anything seen before. This is remarkable considering that it erupted crystal-poor and microlite-poor andesitic magma (57-63 wt% silica glass). The climactic phase produced an eruptive column of at least 39 km in height, however, the ash volume appears anomalously small for the explosive magnitude. Ash from nine different sites across the Kingdom of Tonga were analyzed for textural and morphological properties and grain size distribution. The tephra comprises light pumice (16%), dark pumice (44%), glassy microlite-rich grains (25%), lithics (7%) and free-crystals (Pl, Cpx, Opx) (8%). Specific gravity of particles range from 0.4 to ~2.5. Secondary electron images show that pumices have a variable vesicularity, from dense glassy blocky particles; glassy particles with isolated vesicles and weakly deformed, thick vesicle walls; and a smaller percentage of microvesicular pumices, coated in finer particles. The general characteristics imply a rapid decompression, fragmentation and chilling. This implies some form of phreatomagmatism but with high-efficiency to generate such a large blast – e.g., via propagation of stress waves and thermal contraction rapidly increasing a magma surface area for interaction. The ash is fine-grained and poorly sorted overall. Less than 20 wt.% of ash particles are >1 mm at 80 km SE of the volcano on the main island of Tongatapu, while 70 km NE of the volcano (Nomuka Island) has finer ash, with only 2% of particles >1 mm. It appears that the dispersion axis for the event was directed toward the E or ESE, across the main population centre of Nuku’alofa on Tongatapu. Of the fine fraction 20 wt.% is < 30 micron, 8 wt.% <10 micron but unusually few particles of very fine range (<0.05 wt.% finer than 1 micron). Variations in the mode and sorting of ash fall at different locations and angles from the vent show that there was potentially complex dispersal of ash from different phases of the 11-hour long eruption, and or different plume heights and fragmentation processes involved. Plume observations suggest at least two different plume levels during main phases of the eruption and the fragmentation mechanisms likely varied from the blast-generating phase and the lesser-explosive phases leading up to and following this.

How to cite: Paredes-Mariño, J., White, J., Dürig, T., Baxter, R., Kula, T., Cronin, S., Ukstins, I., Wu, J., Adams, D., Brenna, M., and Brooks-Clarke, I.: Understanding fragmentation mechanism(s) during the 15 January 2022 Hunga Volcano (Tonga) eruption through particle characteristics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13587, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13587, 2022.

EGU22-13588 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2

The global reach of the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption 

Jadranka Sepic, Igor Medvedev, Isaac Fine, Richard Thomson, and Alexander Rabinovich

The Tonga volcanic eruption of 15 January 2022 generated tsunami waves that impacted the entire Global Ocean as far away as 18,000 km from the source in the tropical Pacific Ocean. A defining characteristic of the tsunami was the dual forcing mechanism that sent oceanic waves radiating outward from the source at the longwave speed and atmospheric pressure Lamb waves radiating around the globe at the speed of sound (i.e. roughly 1.5 times faster than the longwave phase speed). Based on time series from several hundred high-resolution observational sites, we constructed global maps of the oceanic tsunami waves and the atmospheric Lamb waves. In some areas of the Pacific Ocean, we were able to distinguish between the two types of motions and estimate their relative contribution. A global numerical model of tsunami waves was constructed and results from the model compared with the observations. The modeled and observed tsunami wave heights were in good agreement. The global maps also enabled us to identify regional “hot spots” where the tsunami heights were highest. In addition to areas in the Pacific Ocean (Chile, New Zealand, Japan, the U.S. West Coast, and the Alaska/Aleutian Islands), “hot regions” included the Western Mediterranean and the Atlantic coasts of Europe and northern Africa.

How to cite: Sepic, J., Medvedev, I., Fine, I., Thomson, R., and Rabinovich, A.: The global reach of the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13588, 2022.

EGU22-13589 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2 | Highlight

Numerical investigations on different possible generating mechanisms for the tsunami following the January 15 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption 

Alberto Armigliato, Cesare Angeli, Glauco Gallotti, Stefano Tinti, Martina Zanetti, and Filippo Zaniboni

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption of January 15 2022 was the culminating event of a sequence of seismic and volcanic events starting back in December 2021. The January 15 eruption manifested itself above the sea level with a number of phenomena, including the generation of a convective column ascending well into the stratosphere, pyroclastic flows travelling over the sea surface, an atmospheric pressure wave recorded by several instruments around the globe, and a tsunami, that represents the main focus of this study.

The tsunami that followed the eruption was observed both in the near-field and in the far-field, propagating across the entire Pacific Ocean and causing damage and loss of lives as far as Peru. In the near-field (Tonga archipelago) it is trickier to distinguish the damage induced by the impact of the eruption and the tsunami waves.

It is still not clear what the main generating mechanism for the ensuing tsunami was. In this contribution, several different hypotheses are investigated, adopting simplified models ranging from the submerged volcanic edifice collapse to the phreatomagmatic explosion and to the atmospheric pressure wave that was recorded across the entire globe. The propagation of the tsunami is simulated numerically with both non-dispersive and dispersive codes. Different spatial scales and resolutions are adopted to check the relative weight of the different generating mechanisms in the near- and in the far-field. Tentative conclusions are drawn by comparing the simulated results with the available experimental data in terms of tide-gauge records and near-field coastal impact.

How to cite: Armigliato, A., Angeli, C., Gallotti, G., Tinti, S., Zanetti, M., and Zaniboni, F.: Numerical investigations on different possible generating mechanisms for the tsunami following the January 15 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13589, 2022.

EGU22-13590 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2 | Highlight

Caldera subsidence during the Hunga-Tonga explosive eruption? 

Thomas R. Walter and Simone Cesca and the GFZ-DLR-Geomar Task Force Team

The Hunga-Tonga eruption culminated on January 15, 2022, with a high-intensity Plinian eruption exceeding 20 km height, tsunamis affecting local islands and the circumpacific region, locally air-coupled seismic surface waves recorded at teleseismic distances, and explosive shock waves that repeatedly travelled around the world. Hunga-Tonga is a flat-topped volcano that rises about 1700 m above the seafloor, hosting a submarine 3-4 km diameter caldera floor that lies at less than 200 m water depth and is surrounded by an elevated, approx. 100-200 m high caldera wall. Only small parts of the volcano are rising at the caldera wall above the sea level, such as the islands Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai in the north and small unnamed rocks in the south. Satellite imagery acquired by Pleiades and Sentinel 1A suggests that during the January 15, 2022 eruption, the central part of the Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai as well as the small rocks in the south disappeared. By analysing satellite radar and imagery, we constrain island perimeters and morphologies before and after the eruption, to find evidence for island subsidence and erosion. In addition, seismic data recorded during the January 15, 2022 eruption was analysed in the time and frequency domains, revealing high amplitude activity over ~1 hr. The comparison of seismic, GNSS and local tsunami recordings gives insights into the time-succession of the eruption. For instance, moment tensor inversion suggests that the largest amplitude seismic signal was produced by a dominant tensile non-double component, characteristic of volcanic explosions. Furthermore, we also found evidence for reverse polarity mechanisms in agreement with subsidence of a caldera, possibly indicating incremental activity of a ring fault. We discuss the possible contribution of a caldera to the evolving eruption dynamics and the need to improve geophysical monitoring of this island arc in general and acquire high-resolution submarine data Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai in specific.

How to cite: Walter, T. R. and Cesca, S. and the GFZ-DLR-Geomar Task Force Team: Caldera subsidence during the Hunga-Tonga explosive eruption?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13590, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13590, 2022.

EGU22-13591 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2

Volcanogenic tsunami on January 15, 2022: insights from deep-ocean measurements 

Mikhail Nosov, Kirill Sementsov, Sergey Kolesov, and Vasilisa Pryadun

The explosive eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on January 15, 2022 triggered tsunami waves that were observed throughout the Pacific Ocean. In particular, the waves were recorded by several dozen deep-ocean DART stations located at source distances from hundreds to more than 10 thousand kilometers. Our study is aimed at analyzing tsunami waveforms recorded by DART stations in order to identify the formation mechanisms of this volcanogenic tsunami. Waveforms are processed using wavelet analysis. The arrival times of signals of different genesis are estimated making use robust physical assumptions, numerical modeling and satellite images. It has been found that in all records the tsunami signal is clearly observed long before the calculated moment of arrival of gravity surface waves caused by sources localized in the immediate vicinity of the volcano. On the records obtained by distant stations (~10000 km) dispersive gravity waves arrive with a delay of several hours after the signals following the passage of acoustic wave in the atmosphere. In addition to the analysis of waveforms, theoretical estimates of the amplitude of gravity waves in the ocean, caused by an acoustic wave in the atmosphere, will be presented. We also provide a theoretical estimate on how acoustic waves in the atmosphere manifest in pressure variations recorded by an ocean-bottom sensor.

This study was funded by a grant of the Russian Science Foundation № 22-27-00415, https://rscf.ru/en/project/22-27-00415/.

How to cite: Nosov, M., Sementsov, K., Kolesov, S., and Pryadun, V.: Volcanogenic tsunami on January 15, 2022: insights from deep-ocean measurements, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13591, 2022.

EGU22-13592 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2 | Highlight

The Near Real time analysis of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption in the ionosphere by GNSS 

Boris Maletckii and Elvira Astafyeva

The 15th January 2022 Hunga Tonga- Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) volcano explosion is one of the most powerful eruptive events over the last 30 years. Based on early computations, its VEI was at least 5. The explosion caused atmospheric air shock waves that propagated around the globe, and also generated a tsunami. All these effects seemed to have produced quite a significant response in the ionosphere.

In this contribution, we analyze the ionospheric disturbances generated by the HTHH volcano eruption by using ground-based 8 GNSS receivers located in the near-field of the volcano (i.e., less than 2000 km). We test our previously developed methods to detect and locate the explosive event and its ionospheric signatures in a near-real-time (NRT) scenario. 

To detect co-volcanic ionospheric disturbances (co-VID), we use the TEC time derivative approach that was previously used for detection of ionospheric disturbances generated by large earthquakes. For this event, we modified the previously developed method to proceed not only 1-second but also 30 sec data. This approach detects the first perturbations ~12-15 minutes after the eruption onset. Further, it estimates the instantaneous velocities in a near field to be about ~500-800 m/s. Finally, from the obtained velocity vectors and the azimuths of co-VID propagation we calculate the position of the source in the ionosphere. 

Besides, we used the same TEC time derivative approach to produce NRT Travel Time Diagrams. The NRT TTD additionally verify the correlation with the source and velocities’ values.

How to cite: Maletckii, B. and Astafyeva, E.: The Near Real time analysis of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption in the ionosphere by GNSS, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13592, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13592, 2022.

EGU22-13593 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2

Stratospheric observations of acoustic-gravity waves from the Hunga-Tonga eruption 

Aurélien Podglajen, Raphaël Garcia, Solene Gerier, Alain Hauchecorne, Albert Hertzog, Alexis Le Pichon, Francois Lott, and Christophe Millet

In the frame of the Strateole 2 balloon project, 17 long-duration stratospheric balloons were launched from Seychelles in fall 2021. At the time of the main eruption of Hunga-Tonga on January 15 2022, two balloons were still in flight over the tropical Pacific, respectively at altitudes of 20 and 18.5 km, and distances of 2,200 and 7,600 km from the volcano. The balloon measurements include wind, temperature and pressure at a sampling rate of 1 Hz. Those observations of this extreme event at that altitude are unique.

In this presentation, we will describe the observations of multiple wave trains by the balloons. The signature of the Lamb wave and infrasounds are particularly striking. The characteristics of the eruption and its scenario will be examined using a synergy of stratospheric in situ observations, ground observations and geostationary satellite images. Finally, we will discuss the complementarity of balloon observations with respect to the ground network due to their altitude and geographic location with respect to the source.

How to cite: Podglajen, A., Garcia, R., Gerier, S., Hauchecorne, A., Hertzog, A., Le Pichon, A., Lott, F., and Millet, C.: Stratospheric observations of acoustic-gravity waves from the Hunga-Tonga eruption, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13593, 2022.

EGU22-13594 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2 | Highlight

Observation and simulation of the meteotsunami generated in the Mediterranean Sea by the Tonga eruption on 15 January 2022 

Audrey Gailler, Philippe Heinrich, Vincent Rey, Hélène Hébert, Aurélien Dupont, Constantino Listowski, Edouard Forestier, and Stavros Ntafis

Meteotsunamis are long ocean waves generated by atmospheric disturbances. The Tonga volcano eruption on 15 January 2022 generated a Lamb pressure wave propagating all over the globe and generating a tsunami observed at most tide gauges in the world. A first atmospheric wave arrived 20 hours after the eruption on the French Mediterranean coasts and propagated southward. This abrupt atmospheric pressure change was recorded by hundreds of barometers of weather stations around Europe. A second one originating from Africa was observed four hours later with an attenuated amplitude. The first wave can be roughly defined by a sinusoid signal with a period close to one hour and an amplitude of 150 Pa. The associated tsunami was observed by the French stations of the HTM-NET network (https://htmnet.mio.osupytheas.fr/) [1]. Amplitudes range from a few cm to 15 cm and periods range from 20 min to 1 hour.

 

Numerical simulation of the tsunami is performed by the operational code Taitoko developed at CEA [2]. The nested multigrid approach is used to simulate the water waves propagating in the bay of Toulon. The meteotsunami is generated by calculating analytically the atmospheric pressure gradient in the momentum equation. Comparisons of time series between numerical solutions and records are very satisfactory in regions defined by a high resolution topo-bathymetry. A second tsunami simulation is performed by introducing a second pressure wave propagating in the North direction and reaching the HTM-NET stations 4 hours after the first arrival. This second pressure wave results in additional and higher tsunami water waves in agreement with records.

 

 

[1] Rey, V., Dufresne, C., Fuda, J. L., Mallarino, D., Missamou, T., Paugam, C., Rougier, G., Taupier-Letage, I., On the use of long term observation of water level and temperature along the shore for a better understanding of the dynamics: Example of Toulon area, France Ocean Dyn., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-020-01363-7.

[2] Heinrich, P, Jamelot, A., Cauquis, A., Gailler A., 2021. Taitoko, an advanced code for tsunami propagation, developed at the French Tsunami Warning Centers. European Journal of Mechanics - B/Fluids 88(84) . DOI: 10.1016/j.euromechflu.2021.03.001.

How to cite: Gailler, A., Heinrich, P., Rey, V., Hébert, H., Dupont, A., Listowski, C., Forestier, E., and Ntafis, S.: Observation and simulation of the meteotsunami generated in the Mediterranean Sea by the Tonga eruption on 15 January 2022, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13594, 2022.

EGU22-13595 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2

Persistence Hunga Tonga plume in the stratosphere and its journey around the Earth. 

Bernard Legras, Sergey Khaykin, Aurélien Podglajen, and Pasquale Sellitto and the ASTuS

The Hunga Tonga eruption has generated an atmospheric plume rising above 40 km,  establishing an observational record. Due to the explosive nature of the eruption with a lot of water, the plume carried an unprecedented amount of water and a cloud of sulfated aerosols and possibly ultra-thin ashes was released. The aerosols have already persisted for four weeks with peak scatterring ratio initially above 200 that are still above 30 on many patches, as seen from CALIOP. These high values combined with low depolarization suggest a large amount of small sub-micronic spherical particles, confirmed by in situ balloon measurements. This is compatible with dominance of sulfated aerosols.

As the stratospheric flow has been mostly zonal with no breaking wave during the period and region of interest, and the horizontal shear dominates, the plume has been mostly dispersed in longitude keeping a similar latitudinal vertical pattern from the early days. A part has migrated to the tropical band reaching 10°N. Several concentrated patches have been preserved in particular a "mushroom" like pattern at 20S which has already circulated once around the Earth. . We will discuss the stability of this pattern in relation with vortical and thermal structures that are detected from several instruments and the meteorological analysis.

We will also discuss the likely impact on the stratospheric composition and the radiative effect on the yearly basis.  

How to cite: Legras, B., Khaykin, S., Podglajen, A., and Sellitto, P. and the ASTuS: Persistence Hunga Tonga plume in the stratosphere and its journey around the Earth., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13595, 2022.

EGU22-13598 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2

A global analysis of deep infrasound produced by the January 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano 

Julien Vergoz, Alexis Le Pichon, Constantino Listowski, Patrick Hupe, Christopher Pilger, Peter Gaebler, Lars Ceranna, Milton Garcés, Emanuele Marchetti, Philippe Labazuy, Pierrick Mialle, Quentin Brissaud, Peter Näsholm, Nikolai Shapiro, and Piero Poli

The eruption of Hunga volcano, Tonga is the most energetic event recorded by the infrasound component of the global International Monitoring System (IMS). Infrasound, acoustic-gravity and Lamb waves were recorded by all 53 operational stations after circling four times the globe. The atmospheric waves recorded globally exhibit amplitude and period comparable to the ones observed following the 1883 Krakatoa eruptions. In the context of the future verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, this event provides a prominent milestone for studying in detail infrasound propagation around the globe for almost one week as well as for calibrating the performance of the IMS network in a broad frequency band.

How to cite: Vergoz, J., Le Pichon, A., Listowski, C., Hupe, P., Pilger, C., Gaebler, P., Ceranna, L., Garcés, M., Marchetti, E., Labazuy, P., Mialle, P., Brissaud, Q., Näsholm, P., Shapiro, N., and Poli, P.: A global analysis of deep infrasound produced by the January 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13598, 2022.

EGU22-13599 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2

Early evolution of the Hunga – Tonga Volcanic Plume from Lidar Observations at Reunion Island (Indian Ocean, 21°S, 55°E) 

Alexandre Baron, Guillaume Payen, Valentin Duflot, Patrick Chazette, Sergey Khaykin, Yann Hello, Nicolas Marquestaut, Marion Ranaivombola, Nelson Bègue, Thierry Portafaix, and Jean-Pierre Cammas

Explosive volcanism periodically induces disturbances of the upper troposphere and low stratosphere. These injections of massive amount of aerosols, ash and gases perturb locally the physico-chemical balance of the impacted atmospheric layers, in particular the ozone concentration via heterogeneous chemistry on particles. On a larger scale some exceptional eruption can have a significant influence on the Earth radiative budget as it was the case following eruptions of El Chichon in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991.

On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga volcano erupted in the Tonga archipelago (20.5°S, 175.4°W). The Plinian eruption was of a rare intensity, especially because of the depth of the underwater caldera. The first estimates indicate a power between 10 and 15 Mt TNT, probably the most powerful since the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883. This short (~ 8min) but intense explosion whose pressure wave was observed all around the globe injected about 400 kt of material into the atmosphere (to be compared to the 20 Mt injected during the Mount Pinatubo eruption). The Volcano Stratospheric Plume (VSP) quickly moved westwards and then overflew the island of La Réunion (21°S, 55°E), located at ~12000 km away from Tonga.

In order to monitor the evolution of the VSP, lidar observations were performed at the Observatoire de Physique de l’Atmosphère de La Réunion (OPAR). This observatory is equipped with three lidars capable of stratospheric aerosols measurements at two wavelengths (355 nm and 532 nm). First observations were performed every night from 19 to 27 January 2022 when the first passage of the VSP occurred. The plume structures appeared to be highly variable along time, with altitudes ranging from 19 km to 36 km above the mean sea level while plume thicknesses were ranging from ~1 km to more than 3 km. Remarkable aerosol optical depth were associated with these stratospheric aerosol layers, up to 0.8 at 532 nm on January 21.

The temporal evolution of the VSP structure and optical properties will be presented and discussed.

How to cite: Baron, A., Payen, G., Duflot, V., Chazette, P., Khaykin, S., Hello, Y., Marquestaut, N., Ranaivombola, M., Bègue, N., Portafaix, T., and Cammas, J.-P.: Early evolution of the Hunga – Tonga Volcanic Plume from Lidar Observations at Reunion Island (Indian Ocean, 21°S, 55°E), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13599, 2022.

EGU22-13601 | Presentations | ITS3.6/SM1.2

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai hydration of the stratosphere 

Luis Millán, Lucien Froidevaux, Gloria Manney, Alyn Lambert, Nathaniel Livesey, Hugh Pumphrey, William Read, Michelle Santee, Michael Schwartz, Hui Su, Frank Werner, and Longtao Wu

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai, a submarine volcano in the South Pacific, reached an eruption climax on 15 January 2022. The blast sent a plume of ash well into the stratosphere, triggered tsunami alerts across the world, and caused ionospheric disturbances. A few hours after the violent eruption, the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measured enhanced values of water vapor at altitudes as high as 50 km - near the stratopause.
On the following days, as the plume dispersed, several MLS chemical species, including H2O and SO2, displayed elevated values, far exceeding any previous values in the 18-year record. In this presentation we discuss the validity of these measurements, the stratospheric evolution of the SO2 and H2O plumes, and, lastly, the implications of the large-scale hydration of the stratosphere by the eruption.

How to cite: Millán, L., Froidevaux, L., Manney, G., Lambert, A., Livesey, N., Pumphrey, H., Read, W., Santee, M., Schwartz, M., Su, H., Werner, F., and Wu, L.: The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai hydration of the stratosphere, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13601, 2022.

EGU22-3569 | Presentations | GMPV9.3

Volcanically-triggered changes in glacier surface velocity 

Michael Martin, Iestyn Barr, Benjamin Edwards, Elias Symeonakis, and Matteo Spagnolo

Many (~250) volcanoes worldwide are occupied by glaciers. This can be problematic for volcano monitoring, since glacier ice potentially masks evidence of volcanic activity. However, some of the most devastating and costly volcanic eruptions of the last 100 years involved volcano-glacier interactions (e.g. Nevado del Ruiz 1985, Eyjafjallajökull 2010). Therefore, improving methods for monitoring glacier-covered volcanoes is of clear societal benefit. Optical satellite remote sensing datasets and techniques are perhaps most promising, since they frequently have a relatively high temporal and spatial resolution and are often freely available. These sources often show the effects of volcanic activity on glaciers, including ice cauldron formation, ice fracturing, and glacier terminus changes. In this study, we use satellite sources to investigate possible links between volcanic activity and changes in glacier velocity. Despite some studies reporting periods of glacier acceleration triggered by volcanic unrest, the potential of using the former to monitor the latter has yet to be investigated. Our approach is to observe how glacier surface velocity responded to past volcanic events in Alaska and Chile by applying feature-tracking, mostly using optical satellite imagery. The overall aim is to systematically track changes in the glacier velocity, with hope of improving volcano monitoring and eruption prediction. 

How to cite: Martin, M., Barr, I., Edwards, B., Symeonakis, E., and Spagnolo, M.: Volcanically-triggered changes in glacier surface velocity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3569, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3569, 2022.

As loci of the fresh formation of alkaline rock, volcanic islands are hotspots of geochemical activity. Collectively volcanic islands are responsible for approximately one third of the global long term CO2 drawdown from chemical weathering. Glaciers also form environments with substantial chemical weathering activity. Despite zero-degree temperatures, subglacial environments provide both freshly ground down mineral surfaces and highly dilute meltwaters, allowing chemical processes to occur at faster rates than in warmer settings where reactions occur near chemical saturation. Yet, the degree to which glaciation enhances weathering on volcanic islands has received relatively little study.

Beerenberg, Jan Mayen, Norway, is the world´s northernmost active stratovolcano. It is mostly glacierized, with 23 distinctly named glaciers descending from the top of the volcanic cone to the sea. Many of the Beerenberg glaciers release sediment-laden subglacial water, indicative of water-rock interaction in subglacial environments. In August 2021, we did a preliminary survey of the aqueous geochemistry and sediment composition of several subglacial outlets at Beerenberg’s largest glacier, Sørbreen. We also surveyed glacial surface streams, glacial ice and snow, non-glacial melt streams, springs, and proglacial lakes.

The subglacial waters of Sørbreen are strongly enriched in bicarbonate, with little chloride despite the marine location and only trace amounts of other anions. Cation composition is ~60% Na and K and 40% Ca and Mg by mole, suggesting a balance between divalent and monovalent cations reflective of local bedrock. Together this strongly suggests carbonation weathering of silicate minerals as the source of the vast majority of dissolved load in the subglacial waters. Non-glacial waters are more dilute and enriched in sea water derived ions (Cl, SO4, and Na) compared to subglacial waters.  

While a complete geochemical budget is not possible from our initial observations, these results imply that Beerenberg is a hot spot of chemical weathering. If our dissolved CO2 fluxes are representative of long-term averages, then atmospheric CO2 drawdown at Sørbreen is comparable to other glacierized mafic volcanic rock regions, such as those on Iceland and Disko Island. These atmospheric CO2 drawdown rates are approximately double the world average and a factor of five higher than the drawdown in non-glacierized high latitude regions.

How to cite: Graly, J., Engen, S., and Yde, J.: Preliminary Geochemical Assessment of the Subglacial Environment of Beerenberg, the World’s Northernmost Active Stratovolcano, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4743, 2022.

EGU22-6528 | Presentations | GMPV9.3

Pre-Holocene glaciovolcanism in the Katla area, south Iceland 

Rosie Cole, Magnús Gudmundsson, Birgir Óskarsson, Catherine Gallagher, Guðrun Larsen, and James White

The Katla volcanic system is one of the most productive in Iceland. Frequent basaltic and occasional silicic phreatomagmatic eruptions through the ice cap Mýrdalsjökull have provided a rich Holocene tephra record. Understanding of pre-Holocene eruptions and the thickness and extent of ice cover during glacial periods is much more limited.

We present eruption and emplacement models for three formations exposed on the flanks of the Katla volcano. Two are rhyolitic nunataks and one is an alkali basaltic sequence. These formations rise above the surrounding ice and topography, respectively, and show evidence for ice-confined emplacement, indicating their formation at a time when ice cover was thicker and more extensive.

Our models of each formation are based on field study, a photogrammetry survey, and major element geochemical analyses. The basaltic formation of Morinsheiði is an intercalated sequence of volcaniclastic rocks, pillow lavas and pillow breccias, entablature-jointed and lobate lavas, and more massive pahoehoe lava sheets, intruded by several dykes. The top of the sequence is a glacially eroded surface and it is bounded on all sides by deep valleys. The Enta nunatak is a kinked ridge or possibly two en-echelon ridges. A silicic volcaniclastic unit is intercalated with and intruded by fluidal and heavily jointed rhyolite lobes, spines and sheets. This formation is capped by a segment of crater wall composed of scoria. The Kötlujökull nunatak is tabular in shape, has a clastic base and is capped by jointed lava with lobate margins and breakout lobes descending the steep slopes.

Each formation exhibits evidence of multiple eruption styles in varying hydrological conditions, and at least for Morinsheiði a fluctuating water level. These are the preliminary results from the project “SURGE: Uncapping subglacial eruption dynamics and glacier response”, which aims to better understand the relative influences of magma chemistry, eruption style and glacial conditions on meltwater production and retention, glacial response, and the feedback effects for continued eruptions. These models, combined with new 40Ar-39Ar dating of the lavas, will also provide greater insight into the form of Katla and the glacial conditions that prevailed during the late Pleistocene.

How to cite: Cole, R., Gudmundsson, M., Óskarsson, B., Gallagher, C., Larsen, G., and White, J.: Pre-Holocene glaciovolcanism in the Katla area, south Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6528, 2022.

EGU22-8641 | Presentations | GMPV9.3

The Bláfjall tuya in North Iceland, morphological characteristics and effect of ice flow and icesheet slope on edifice form  

Anna Margrét Sigurbergsdóttir and Magnús Tumi Gudmundsson

Tuyas are basaltic to intermediate glaciovolcanic edifices, formed in a body of meltwater within an ice sheet, in an ocean or a lake. The most common tuya stratigraphy consist of a lowermost layer or a mound of pillow lava, overlain by hyaloclastite tuffs and capped by a layer of subaerially-formed, horizontally bedded, lava flows. The parts of the lava flows more distant from the vent are built on flow-foot breccias, with the transition from subaerially-formed lava flows and breccias being a distinct stratigraphic boundary: the passage zone. The elevation of the passage zone marks the water level in the englacial lake into which the evolving tuya was built. At many locations the elevation of the passage zone appears to vary considerably from one location on a tuya to another. Some tuyas are elongated. One idea is that the elongation is predominantly in the direction of ice flow at the time of eruption.

By studying tuyas through aerial photography, satellite imagery and ground observations, the edifices variations in the elevation of the passage zone can be studied. This provides information on the eruption processes and environmental conditions at the time of formation.  We have analyzed the variation of passage zone elevation with distance along strike of a selected set of tuyas in Iceland. These include Bláfjall, located in Northern Iceland. It was formed within a Pleistocene ice sheet a continuous, prolonged eruption, or in a series of eruptions, closely spaced in time. The lava cap reaches a maximum thickness of approximately 100 m but is only a few meters to a few tens of meters thick on average, showing clear signs of influence from the ice sheet. Apparently, both the thickness of the ice sheet and the direction of ice flow direction exerted major control on the height and elongation of the Bláfjall tuya. The eruption took place well to the north of the ice divide at the time, and the flow of ice was predominantly from south to north, with the elongated structure of the tuya oriented parallel to the flow of the ancient glacier. The thickness of the lava cap is greatest in the north part and generally decreases towards south. This is despite the fact that the elevation of the mountain increases southwards. This indicates that the northern part is mostly formed by an advancing lava delta, propagating in the direction of ice flow and that the level of the water body present at the end of the advancing lava delta become progressively lower towards north. This suggests a sloping ice sheet at the time of formation, or possibly a receding ice sheet, leading to gradual thinning with time as the eruption progressed.   

How to cite: Sigurbergsdóttir, A. M. and Gudmundsson, M. T.: The Bláfjall tuya in North Iceland, morphological characteristics and effect of ice flow and icesheet slope on edifice form , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8641, 2022.

EGU22-8667 | Presentations | GMPV9.3

Tephra layer formed in the 1996 eruption of Gjálp, Iceland 

Irma Gná Jóngeirsdóttir, Magnús Tumi Gudmundsson, and Gudrún Larsen

Gjálp is a hyaloclastite ridge situated beneath the western part of the ~8000 km2 Vatnajökull ice cap, located midway between the subglacial calderas of Grímsvötn and Bárdabunga volcanoes. The tephra erupted at Gjálp has affinities fitting with the Grímsvötn volcanic system while the associated seismicity and unrest preceding the eruption suggest that the eruption was caused by lateral magma flow from Bárdarbunga.  Eruptions occurred at Gjálp in 1938 and 1996 but only the 1996 eruption is thought to have broken through the ice. The 1996 eruption was first detected on the 30th of September at about 22:00 GMT by the onset of seismic tremor; the following day heavily crevassed ice cauldrons were noticed. Around 30 hours after detection of the tremor the eruption broke through the ice sheet. The eruption lasted for 13 days, during which a 6-7 km long subglacial, hyaloclastite ridge was formed. The subglacial eruption melted large volumes of ice that accumulated within the Grímsvötn caldera until early November, when it was released in a major jökulhlaup, destroying bridges and damaging roads. In comparison with the subglacial eruption the subaerial part was relatively modest. The style of activity was mostly Surtseyan and the tephra erupted is mildly intermediate in composition.

The tephra fall began on October 2 and continued intermittently until October 13. The first tephra was seen at 05:18 on October 2. By 08:50 the largest explosions threw tephra about 1 km above the ice surface and the plume rose to 4-4.5 km above sea level. This tephra was carried north and north-northeast across North and Central Iceland and was detected as far as 250 km from source. On October 3 the plume was reported to have reached 8-9 km a.s.l. Tephra was also dispersed to the east and south and most of the tephra accumulated on the Vatnajökull glacier. During the eruption, repeated snow fall caused layering within the tephra deposit. In the following year samples were collected from the tephra fall area on the glacier. These consist mostly of snow cores with tephra thickness ranging from dm to mm. The samples were processed to estimate the tephra volume and to create a dispersal and isopach map. The tephra layer deposited on the glacier is volumetrically only a few percent of the bulk volume (~0.7 km3) of the subglacial ridge formed in the 1996 eruption.

How to cite: Jóngeirsdóttir, I. G., Gudmundsson, M. T., and Larsen, G.: Tephra layer formed in the 1996 eruption of Gjálp, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8667, 2022.

EGU22-8751 | Presentations | GMPV9.3 | Highlight

The causes of unexpected jökulhlaups, studied using geothermal reservoir modelling 

Hannah Iona Reynolds, Magnús T. Gudmundsson, and Thórdís Högnadóttir

Jökulhlaups (glacier outburst floods) are considered the most common type of volcanic hazard in Iceland, and result from the accumulation of meltwater during long-term geothermal activity beneath glaciers, or very rapid melting over a short period of time. Jökulhlaups may occur without visible precursors or prior warning, varying in size from being persistent leakage to floods that have caused considerable damage like the jökulhlaups in Múlakvísl and Kaldakvísl in July 2011. Little has been known about the onset time of water accumulation/melting, whether water accumulated before it was released, and how these events are related to intrusion of magma. This study categorises known ice cauldrons within Icelandic glaciers based on their volume, rate of formation, and longevity. Geothermal reservoir modelling was then used to explore possible heat sources which generate the cauldrons. Five scenarios were simulated: (1) Subglacial eruption – freshly erupted magma in direct contact with the ice at the glacier base; (2) Intrusion into homogeneous bedrock - magma intrudes into a bedrock of homogeneous properties; (3) Intrusion into high permeability channel – similar to scenario (2) but a high permeability channel extends from the intrusion to the glacier-bedrock boundary, e.g. zone of high permeability at a caldera fault; (4) Sudden release of pressure – a hot reservoir is topped by caprock, with a high permeability pathway from depth up to the glacier-bedrock boundary, representing a sudden breach of a pressurised reservoir; and (5) Intrusion into a very hot reservoir – similar to scenario (3) but the reservoir is near boiling point, from previous repeated intrusive activity. This work improves our understanding of sudden and unexpected jökulhlaups, which is helpful for hazard assessments and response plans for unrest in glaciers near inhabited areas, tourist spots, and power plants. 

How to cite: Reynolds, H. I., Gudmundsson, M. T., and Högnadóttir, T.: The causes of unexpected jökulhlaups, studied using geothermal reservoir modelling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8751, 2022.

EGU22-8774 | Presentations | GMPV9.3

The role of volcanic particle thermal conductivity, density, and porosity in influencing ice melt. 

Katie Reeves, Jennie Gilbert, Stephen Lane, and Amber Leeson

Volcanoes can generate pyroclastic material that is deposited on ice and snow surfaces. However, a range of particle properties and spatial distribution of layer thicknesses are associated with deposition of volcanic material1. This can modify the thermodynamic behaviour and optical properties of clean ice. Typically, thin layers of particles (i.e. in ‘dirty’ ice conditions) can increase ice ablation, whilst thick layers of particles (i.e. in ‘debris-covered’ conditions) can hinder ablation2. Therefore, the state of ice is an important control on the energy balance of an ice system. 20.4% of Earth’s known Holocene volcanoes are associated with glacier or permanent snow cover3, and so it is crucial to understand how volcanic material interacts with ice systems to (1) better understand the evolution of debris-covered and dirty ice in general and (2) forecast future ice-melt scenarios at individual ice-covered volcanoes.

We present laboratory experiments that systematically reviewed the impact of volcanic particles of a range of compositions and properties (e.g. thermal conductivity, diameter, density, and albedo) on ice. Experiments assessed single particles and a scattering of particles on optically transparent and opaque ice, subjected to visible light illumination from a light emitting diode in a system analogous to dirty ice. Automated time-lapse images and in-person observations captured the response of particles and ice to radiation. Particles investigated included trachy-andesitic cemented ash particles from Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland), basaltic-andesitic scoria from Volcán Sollipulli (Chile), and rhyolitic pumice from Mount St. Helens (USA).

The experiments provided insight into some of the processes associated with volcanic particle interaction with ice. Results demonstrated that all volcanic particles with varying albedos induced ice melt and drove convection systems within the meltwater. This convection resulted in indirect heating beyond the immediate margins of the particles. The particles additionally lost finer grained fragments to meltwater, further driving ice melt through the addition of multiple absorbing surfaces within the ice system. This demonstrated that volcanic particles have the capability to melt ice very effectively in dirty ice conditions. In all experiments, the particles had a low thermal conductivity (relative to ice), although the density differed between particle types. Our experiments showed that the porosity and density of a volcanic particle can dictate the behaviour of particle-ice interaction; a dense particle can melt downwards through the ice (in similarity with the behaviour of iron-based meteorites4), whilst a less dense particle can become buoyant in meltwater, resulting in an extensive area of surface melt.

1. Möller et al. (2018), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-53-2018

2. Fyffe et al. (2020), Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, DOI: 10.1002/esp.4879

3. Curtis and Kyle (2017), Journal of Volc. And Geo. Research http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.01.017

4. Evatt et al. (2016), Nature Comms., DOI: 10.1038/ncomms10679

How to cite: Reeves, K., Gilbert, J., Lane, S., and Leeson, A.: The role of volcanic particle thermal conductivity, density, and porosity in influencing ice melt., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8774, 2022.

EGU22-10002 | Presentations | GMPV9.3

Characterization of alteration minerals in Deception Island (Antarctica): implications for the dynamics of the current hydrothermal system 

Raquel Arasanz, Oriol Vilanova, Adelina Geyer, Meritxell Aulinas, Jordi Ibañez-Insa, Antonio M. Álvarez-Valero, Helena Albert, and Olga Prieto-Ballesteros

Hydrothermal systems, commonly developed in volcanic calderas, play an important role on the type and location of the post-caldera volcanic activity. The hydrothermal alteration and mineral precipitation can modify the physical properties and mechanical behaviour of the affected rocks, with the progressive alteration facilitating the occurrence of phreatic or hydrothermal explosive eruptions. Deception Island (South Shetland Islands) is one of the most active volcanoes in Antarctica, with more than 20 eruptions and three documented unrest periods over the past two centuries. The island consists of a composite volcano with an 8.5 x 10 km centrally located caldera dated at c. 8,300 years, according to paleomagnetic data, and 3,980 ± 125 calibrated years before the present (cal yr BP) based on tephrochronology, sedimentological studies and 14C dating. After the caldera-forming event, volcanic activity has been characterized by monogenetic magmatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions located around the caldera rim. Also, a hydrothermal system developed in the Port Foster area, although no detailed study has been done so far. The aim of this work is to shed further light in the dynamics of Deception Island hydrothermal system by studying several representative samples of magmatic rocks. A detailed petrographic study and a characterization of primary and secondary minerals have been carried out. The presence of secondary minerals and the palagonite alteration in the Fumarole Bay Formation suggest that the alteration of the samples took place under conditions of low water/rock ratios, basic pH and temperatures below 200 °C. The secondary minerals from the Basaltic Shield Formation samples may be indicative of fluids with temperatures higher than 200 °C and richer in CO2. Finally, the physical changes observed in the samples of this study lead to the conclusion that the investigated areas of the Fumarole Bay Formation are more likely to host hydrothermal or phreatic explosive eruptions, compared to the Basaltic Shield Formation zones.

This research is part of POLARCSIC research initiatives and was partially funded by the MINECO grants POSVOLDEC(CTM2016-79617-P)(AEI/FEDER-UE) and VOLGASDEC (PGC2018-095693-B-I00)(AEI/FEDER, UE) and the grant PID2020-114876GB-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033 and, as appropriate, by “ERDF A way of making Europe”, by the “European Union” or by the “European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR”. This research is also supported by the PREDOCS-UB grant.

How to cite: Arasanz, R., Vilanova, O., Geyer, A., Aulinas, M., Ibañez-Insa, J., Álvarez-Valero, A. M., Albert, H., and Prieto-Ballesteros, O.: Characterization of alteration minerals in Deception Island (Antarctica): implications for the dynamics of the current hydrothermal system, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10002, 2022.

EGU22-10267 | Presentations | GMPV9.3

Pyroclastic Density Currents Over Ice: An Experimental Investigation of Microphysical Heat Transfer Processes 

Amelia Vale, Jeremy Phillips, Alison Rust, and Geoff Kilgour

Pyroclastic density current (PDC) interactions with ice are common at high altitude and latitude stratovolcanoes. When PDCs propagate over ice, melt and steam are generated. The incorporation of melt and steam into PDCs can alter the flow dynamics by reducing friction at the particle-ice interface and between individual particles. Melt incorporation can also transform a PDC into an ice-melt lahar. The hazardous and temporally unpredictable nature of these flows limits field observations. Conceptual models of PDC-ice interactions for hazard assessment and modelling exist, but quantifications of the microscale physical processes that underpin these interactions are limited. We use experiments to characterise the melting and friction reduction that occur when PDCs are emplaced onto ice.

In experiment set one, a heated particle layer was rapidly emplaced onto a horizontal ice layer contained within an insulated beaker 7.3 cm in diameter. The particle types used were glass ballotini, crushed pumice, and Ruapehu PDC samples, covering a diverse range of grain characteristics. The particle layer was varied in thickness up to 45 mm and across temperatures up to 700 °C. In each experiment, the mass of melt and steam were quantified, and the time evolution of temperature through the particle layer was measured.

Across all particle types, increasing particle layer mass (therefore layer thickness) and temperature increased melt and steam production. However, Ruapehu and pumice melt masses showed greater sensitivity than ballotini to particle temperature for any given layer thickness. Conversely, steam production was greater for the ballotini for any given layer thickness and was more sensitive to ballotini particle temperature.

Localised steam escape, fluidisation, capillary action, and particle sinking, were observed to varying extents in the experiments. These phenomena caused melt to be incorporated into the particle layer. The rate of increase in melt generation decreases with increasing particle layer thickness. This is due to increasing steam production, the increasing temperature of incorporated meltwater, energy losses to the atmosphere, and alterations to the bulk particle diffusivity.

Experiment set two characterised the mobility of particles over frozen and non-frozen substrates. Pumice and Ruapehu particles of varying temperature and layer thickness were poured into a 4.5 cm diameter alumina tube, which was rapidly lifted, allowing the particles to radially spread over the substrate. This configuration has been widely studied in experiments on granular flow mobility. The initial and final aspect ratios of the particle layer were measured, and conform to a power-law form previously interpreted as showing that frictional interactions are only important in the final stages of flow emplacement. Enhanced particle layer mobility over ice was only observed for Ruapehu particles above 400 °C, which we interpret to be due to fluidisation of the particles by rising steam. This is consistent with experiment set one, where Ruapehu particles produced more steam than pumice, and were often fluidised above 400 °C.

Experimental data will be used to calibrate surface flow hazard models for PDC runout and lahar generation, enabling prediction of PDC-ice interaction hazards. These models will be tested at Mt. Ruapehu, New Zealand. 

How to cite: Vale, A., Phillips, J., Rust, A., and Kilgour, G.: Pyroclastic Density Currents Over Ice: An Experimental Investigation of Microphysical Heat Transfer Processes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10267, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10267, 2022.

EGU22-12210 | Presentations | GMPV9.3

Characterising ice-magma interactions during a shallow subglacial fissure eruption: northern Laki, Iceland, a case study 

Catherine (Kate) Gallagher, Magnús Tumi Gudmundsson, Thorvaldur Thordarson, Bruce Houghton, Birgir Óskarsson, Robert Askew, Rosie Cole, William Moreland, Valentin Troll, and Guðrún Þorgerður Larsen

Iceland has the largest variety of subglacially formed volcanic edifices worldwide, given the extensive glacial cover during the Pleistocene and its frequent volcanic activity. As substantial parts of the volcanic zones are presently ice-covered, eruptions beneath glaciers are common.

 

Phreatomagmatic activity and flood deposits have been hypothesised for shallow subglacial fissure eruptions, at or within a glacial margin. However, to date, no historical examples that did not immediately break through the ice, resulting in dry magmatic activity, have been directly observed. Also, at dynamic ice-margin settings, no extensive resultant formations from shallow subglacial fissure eruptions formed in older historic eruptions have been studied until now. 

 

The final fissure from the 1783–84 CE Laki basaltic flood lava event in the Síða highlands of Iceland, fissure 10, provides a perfect natural laboratory to understand the eruptive dynamics of a shallow subglacial or intraglacial fissure eruption. Fissure 10 is a 2.5 km long formation, which constitutes the final phase of activity on the 29 km long Laki crater row, formed as eruptive activity from the Laki eruption propagated under Síðujökull, an outlet glacier from the Vatnajökull ice-cap. The resultant eruptive sequences display evidence of the increasing influence of ice when traced along strike from SW to NE, with the eruption transitioning to a predominantly phreatomagmatic phase with increasing degrees of lateral confinement. The sequence is dominated by volcanoclastic units, formed by multiple phreatomagmatic and magmatic phases suggestive of fluctuating water levels, intercalated with hackly jointed intrusions, hackly jointed lobate lava flows and debris flows. Repeating units of agglutinated spatter and spatter-fed lava flows cap the sequence, suggesting decreasing influence of external water with stratigraphic height and towards the end of the fissure’s eruptive activity. A thin layer of glacial till coats the top of the fissure 10 sequences. The margin of Síðujökull has since fully receded from the formation.

 

Our model for the eruptive dynamics of the northern Laki fissure 10 formation is based on field mapping, a drone photogrammetry survey, petrological observations and EMP analysis of glassy tephra and lava selvages to gain a full understanding of the activity and how eruptive activity progressed. The Laki eruption benefits from a wealth of previous studies on the magmatic phases from the other 9 subaerially eruptive fissures, to the SW of fissure 10, allowing for the effects of the glacier on this fissure’s activity to be isolated and defined.

 

Fissure 10 allows for an approximate reconstruction of the ice margin and glacier slope at the time of eruption, adding valuable information on the extent of the glaciers in SW-Vatnajökull in the late 18th century, and during the Little Ice Age. These shallow subglacially erupted deposits are the only fully accessible intraglacial eruptive vents, from a known historical eruption, on Earth. Detailed mapping and petrological analysis of deposits like these is important for interpreting landforms in paleo-ice margins, where transitional activity occurs.

How to cite: Gallagher, C. (., Gudmundsson, M. T., Thordarson, T., Houghton, B., Óskarsson, B., Askew, R., Cole, R., Moreland, W., Troll, V., and Larsen, G. Þ.: Characterising ice-magma interactions during a shallow subglacial fissure eruption: northern Laki, Iceland, a case study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12210, 2022.

EGU22-12717 | Presentations | GMPV9.3

Volcano-ice interaction:  The empirical constraints derived from eruptions in Iceland in the period 1918-2015 

Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson, Thórdís Högnadóttir, Eyjólfur Magnússon, Hannah I Reynolds, Guðrún Larsen, and Finnur Pálsson

Eruptions where glacier ice has a significant effect on the style of activity occur in some parts of the world, notably the Andes, Alaska, parts of Antarctica and Iceland.  Due to its northerly latitude and considerable ice cover within the volcanically active zones, about 50% of all eruptions in Iceland occur within glaciers, which is about 15 such eruptions per century.  In the last 25 years, six such confirmed eruptions have taken place while only one minor confirmed eruption occurred in the period 1938-1996.  This is due to the episodic nature of activity in the volcanoes covered by the 7900 km2 Vatnajökull ice cap, with a new period of high activity starting with the Gjálp eruption of 1996.   Contemporary observations have therefore provided considerable empirical data on these events.  These data include glacier thickness prior to eruptions, ice cauldron development, glacier flow perturbations, melting rates and transitions from fully subglacial to explosive/partly subaerial eruptions.  In addition, some data exist that constrains the volcano-ice interaction in the eruptions of Katla in 1918, Grímsvötn in 1934 and 1983, Gjálp in 1938 and Hekla in 1947.  The majority of these events were basaltic.  However, at least two eruptions that had an initial fully subglacial phase (Gjálp 1996, Eyjafjallajökull 2010) were of intermediate composition.  The volume of subglacially-erupted magma ranged from a few million m3 to 0.45 km3 (DRE), initial ice thicknesses ranging from 50 to 750 m, and melted ice volumes between 0.01 km3 to 4 km3.  Combined, the data from the eruptions of the last 100+ years, provides important constraints on heat transfer rates, the rate of penetration of eruptions through ice, glacier response to eruption, and the potential for generation of jökulhlaups and lahars.  Post-eruption observations in Grímsvötn have revealed that craters formed in eruptions that break through the glacial cover can be partly built on ice.  These tend to be highly transient features due subsequent melting and ice movement.  Surface melting of ice by pyroclastic density currents has occurred in Iceland, but this type of activity has in the recent past mostly been confined to the occasional sub-Plinian to Plinian eruptions in e.g. Hekla volcano.   However, there are indications that such activity has played an important role in some relatively rare large Plinian eruptions at ice covered volcanoes in Iceland, as observed in e.g. Alaska and the Andes.

How to cite: Gudmundsson, M. T., Högnadóttir, T., Magnússon, E., Reynolds, H. I., Larsen, G., and Pálsson, F.: Volcano-ice interaction:  The empirical constraints derived from eruptions in Iceland in the period 1918-2015, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12717, 2022.

EGU22-65 | Presentations | TS7.4

Middle Permian calc-alkaline basalts and ferroan rhyolites in the Istanbul Zone, NW Turkey: Evidence for Permo-Triassic subduction 

Cumhur Babaoğlu, Gültekin Topuz, Aral Okay, Serhat Köksal, Jia-Min Wang, and Fatma Köksal

Middle Permian bimodal volcanic rocks exposed in the Kocaeli Peninsula represent the first igneous event in the entire Paleozoic record of the Istanbul Zone together with coeval acidic intrusions reported from other parts of the zone. These volcanic rocks crop out as intercalations at the lower horizons of Permian-Earliest Triassic fluvial sedimentary rocks and mainly include basalts and rhyolites with subordinate andesites and rhyolitic tuffs. The basalts were derived from 1-3% partial melting of spinel peridotite in the lithospheric mantle; their high Mg-numbers (Mg# = 63-68) along with Ni (85-136 ppm) and Cr (198-240 ppm) concentrations point to derivation from near-primary mantle melts with minor fractionation. These rocks did not undergo low-pressure plagioclase crystallization based on the lack of a Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu* = 0.95-0.99). Their vesicles are filled by secondary calcite, epidote, pumpellyite, albite and chlorite due to hydrothermal alteration under subgreenschist facies conditions whereby temperatures ranged between 250-300°C. The rhyolites are ferroan [FeO*/(FeO*+MgO) = 0.87-0.96], characterized by high Zr concentrations (279-464 ppm) and compositionally similar to A2-type granitic magmas. Incompatible trace element ratios, rare earth element patterns, initial εNd isotopic data along with temperatures of the rhyolitic melts and absence of inherited zircons in the rhyolites collectively suggest that the rhyolites were derived from fractional crystallization of some basaltic melts in a crustal magma chamber with plagioclase fractionation and minor crustal contamination while the basalts were directly derived from the lithospheric mantle and reached the surface with negligible fractionation. Both volcanic rocks display diagnostic features of subduction-zone melts such as (i) medium- and high-K calc-alkaline affinity and (ii) enrichment in large-ion lithophile elements (LILE) but depletion in high-field strength elements (HFSE) (e.g., Nb-Ta troughs). U-Pb dating of zircon grains extracted from one rhyolite sample yielded a concordia age of 262.7 ± 0.7 Ma (2σ) (Capitanian). The observation that the rhyolites occur near the base of the associated sedimentary rocks places a tight constraint on the age of deposition of these deposits. The bimodal nature of the volcanic rocks, A2-type signature of the rhyolites, local stratigraphic record and data from regional geology (e.g., possible correlation with Late Permian-Early Triassic A-type rift-related granites in Carpathians and Balkans) all indicate an extensional event in the region which started in Middle Permian and resulted in the deposition of Early Triassic quartz sandstones. This extension seems to have taken place above a subduction zone developed in response to a Late Paleozoic-Triassic ocean floor (Paleo-Tethys) dipping northward beneath Laurasia, as evidenced by Permo-Triassic accretionary melanges restricted to Sakarya Zone. In conclusion, geochronological, geochemical and regional data provide additional evidence that the Paleo-Tethys Ocean was subducting northward beneath Laurasia during Permian time.

How to cite: Babaoğlu, C., Topuz, G., Okay, A., Köksal, S., Wang, J.-M., and Köksal, F.: Middle Permian calc-alkaline basalts and ferroan rhyolites in the Istanbul Zone, NW Turkey: Evidence for Permo-Triassic subduction, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-65, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-65, 2022.

EGU22-322 | Presentations | TS7.4

Paleozoic development of OIB and see-mounts in the Turkestan Ocean within the Khaidarkan and Ulug-Too deposits, South Tianshan (STS) 

Baiansuluu Terbishalieva, Oleh Hnylko, Larysa Heneralova, and Johanne Rembe

The study area is situated in the Ulug-Tau and Khaidarkan gold-antimony-mercury deposits in the South Tienshan (STS). Together with Khadamzhai, Chauvai, and Abshyr deposits, they can be grouped into one ore province. The STS consists mainly of middle and late Paleozoic marine sedimentary rocks, which were deposited in the Turkestan Ocean and on the adjacent continental margins. They crop out along with subordinate metamorphic rocks, arc-related and intraplate volcanic suites, and ophiolites. Various lithologies were juxtaposed together in an accretionary prism during the late Carboniferous - early Permian closure of the Turkestan Ocean.

In the investigated area, Late Silurian to Devonian limestones of the Aktur carbonate platform cover both the shales of the Pulgon Formation (Fm.) (Zarhar-Say) and the basalts with gabbro bodies. Gabbro specimens were sampled for absolute age determination by amphibole 40Ar/39Ar geochronology. Volcanic rocks related to the basement of the Silurian-Carboniferous Akturian carbonate platform, part of the regional nappes of Osh-Uratyube, have been studied by Biske et al., (2019) and our group. The nappe sits on top of basaltic rocks of the Chonkoy Fm. and andesites, tuffs, and carbonate rocks of the Dedebulak Fm. In the latter unit, the volcanic suite forms the lower member which is overlain by Cambrian limestone and dolomite with intercalations of radiolarite (upper member). The volcanic rocks at the base of the Aktur carbonate platform succession indicate the Early Paleozoic geodynamic situation in the Turkestan Ocean as well as about the structure of the Khaidarkan and Ulug-Too gold-antimony-mercury deposits. The Ulug-Tau orefield is situated along the mélange zone at the base of the Aktur nappe.

Results of geochemical and geochronologic analyses (in progress) show that the basalts and basaltic andesites of the lower member of the Dedebulak Fm. formed in an island-arc setting. These volcanic rocks confirm the existence of Early Paleozoic island arcs in the Turkestan Ocean. In a later stage, those arcs possibly died out and were overlapped by carbonate platforms. For the Aktur carbonate platform, it can be assumed that it was detached from the Cambrian island arc basement during the Late Carboniferous and was added to the accretionary prism as the Aktur Nappe. The Cambrian island arc basement (Dedebulak Fm.) formed another thrust-sheet unit as part of the accretionary prism. Plastic Silurian shales and other sediments, primarily located between the Aktur carbonate platform sediments and the Cambrian island arc volcanic rocks, were incorporated into the polymictic mélange.

 

How to cite: Terbishalieva, B., Hnylko, O., Heneralova, L., and Rembe, J.: Paleozoic development of OIB and see-mounts in the Turkestan Ocean within the Khaidarkan and Ulug-Too deposits, South Tianshan (STS), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-322, 2022.

EGU22-394 | Presentations | TS7.4

Origin of the metamorphic flysch sequence of the Strandja Massif (NW Turkey) in the Tethyan Realm: insights from new age and structural data 

Ali Akın, Gürsel Sunal, Boris Alexeevich Natal'in, and Namık Aysal

The Strandja Massif is a key location for understanding the Paleozoic and Mesozoic tectonic evolution of the Tethyan Realm in the NW Turkey. Some researchers have suggested that the Strandja Massif is a part of the Cimmerian continent, but others consider it as a section of the southern passive continental margin of the Eurasia. Traditionally the massif is divided into two tectono-stratigraphic units: 1) Pre-Permian crystalline basement and 2) Mesozoic sedimentary cover. However, the ages of the lithostratigraphic units have been significantly revised following the recent geochronological studies. Structural relations between these units are not simple and should be re-examined carefully. Our previous studies have shown that the crystallization time of the magmatic rocks and sedimentation ages of the rocks range from late Proterozoic to Permian especially at the east of the Strandja Massif. In this study, the Serves metagreywacke sporadically containing metabasic rocks and Kumlukoy quartz-rich metasandstones are investigated at the north of the Kıyıköy town, in order to check the first studies that assigned them to the Jurassic and Cretaceous cover deposits. These units stretch along the Black Sea coast and reveal significant differences with units that are exposed to the south. Particularly the Serves unit consists of alternation of lithic metasandstones, schists, and phyllites whereas metaconglomerate layers, marble and dolomite bodies are common among Jurassic rocks exposed in the south. Detrital zircon studies carried on the metasandstone reveal that the sedimentation should be younger than Visean-Serpukhovian, because the youngest U-Pb zircon age population obtained are between ~338 and 327 Ma. Considering widespread late Carboniferous magmatism (~312-306 Ma) in the Strandja Massif and bereft of such magmatics constrain deposition of this unit between ~327 and 312 Ma (early-middle Pennsylvanian). In contrast, the Kumlukoy Unit has quartz-rich metasandstones and it has lower metamorphic degree than the Serves Unit. The detrital zircons of these metasandstones, which were considered as Cretaceous in the previous studies, indicate that the sedimentation interval of the unit is younger than latest Permian (~256 Ma). According to the detrital ages obtained the Kumlukoy metasandstone represent a higher stratigraphical position than the Serves metagreywacke. The Kumlukoy metasandstone is most probably the equivalent of the Triassic metaclastics reported in the cover units of the NW Strandja Massif. Whereas the age and petrography of the Serves metagraywacke are similar to the Mahya Complex and Yavuzdere Arc which was interpreted as a paired magmatic arc-accretionary prism unit. Another interpretation is that the Serves Unit predates the Mahya Complex and Yavuzdere Arc and all of them represents a long-lasting subduction and accompanying accretion events in the late Paleozoic history of the Strandja Massif, namely the Silk-road Arc.

How to cite: Akın, A., Sunal, G., Natal'in, B. A., and Aysal, N.: Origin of the metamorphic flysch sequence of the Strandja Massif (NW Turkey) in the Tethyan Realm: insights from new age and structural data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-394, 2022.

EGU22-452 | Presentations | TS7.4

A new set of overprinting slip-data along Manisa Fault in Aegean Extensional Province, Western Anatolia 

Taner Tekin, Taylan Sançar, and Bora Rojay

Interplay between the dynamic effects of the northward subduction of the African plate beneath the Aegean continental fragment and the North Anatolian dextral strike slip fault to the north caused a complex large-scale extensional crustal deformational domain, named Aegean extensional province.

The Gediz-Alaşehir Graben (GAG), being in that large scale extensional terrain, is a NW-SE trending extensional basin developed to the north of K. Menderes Graben (KMG). NW-SE trending Manisa fault is one of the important elements of the GAG, displaying active fault geomorphology.

The slip data were collected from the high angle normal faults, Manisa fault, controlling the Quaternary configuration and faults that are cutting through the Miocene sequences. Angelier’s reverse inversion method (WinTensor) was carried out to differentiate the deformational phases acting on the Manisa fault, based on σ1 - σ3 relation and θ ratio.

The Manisa fault is a high angle normal and dipping towards NE where the final dip-slip motion overprinted onto strike-slip motion. The analysis of the fault slip data simply implies an almost NNW-SSE and NE-SW, two extensional periods acted in the region possibly following Early Miocene contractional period since post-Oligocene. The Plio-Quaternary NNW-SSE extension overprinted onto almost ENE-WSW compression (dextral strike-slip data) which is finally overprinted by the NE-SW to NW-SE multi-directional extension in Aegean region.

To sum up; final phase of the intermittent extensional deformation, NE-SW to NW-SE multi-directional extension, superimposed on the older contractional systems, evolved under the control of North Anatolian strike-slip shear in north and southern Aegean subduction in the south with a cumulative regionwide 30° counterclockwise rotation of western Anatolia since latest Miocene or the contractional data might be possibly inherited from a strike slip structure at depth (“İzmir-Balıkesir transfer zone or Tear”) or else might be evolved along the edges of block boundaries of rotated fault domains.

Key words: Aegean extensional province, Manisa fault, normal faulting, strike-slip faulting.

How to cite: Tekin, T., Sançar, T., and Rojay, B.: A new set of overprinting slip-data along Manisa Fault in Aegean Extensional Province, Western Anatolia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-452, 2022.

EGU22-568 | Presentations | TS7.4

Arabia-Eurasia Collision and The Geodynamic Models for Plateau Uplift in Turkish-Iranian Plateau 

Uğurcan Çetiner, Jeroen van Hunen, Oğuz Göğüş, Mark Allen, and Andrew Valentine

Orogenic plateaux, the broad high elevation regions of Earth, are mainly formed by plate convergence/shortening and in some cases, there is (hot) mantle support for their formation. Two major examples at present are the Tibetan and Turkish-Iranian plateaux. For instance, Turkish-Iranian plateau, is a consequence of the continental plate collision between Arabia and Eurasia, which began at ~34-25 Ma and continues to the present day. The plateau can be regarded as two distinct entities, with a boundary at roughly the political border between Turkey and Iran. While there have been studies to explain the uplift history, lithospheric/crustal structure and associated magmatism, currently, the mechanisms behind the plateau growth are not well understood. The western region, also known as the East Anatolian Plateau, has a tectonic plate structure with a near-normal crustal thickness (~35-40 km) and a markedly thinned mantle lithosphere (a few 10s of km in thickness). This suggests that, to achieve its regional elevation of ~2 km there is likely considerable support from the underlying hot asthenospheric mantle. In the east, the crust of most of Iran is thicker, up to ~65 km, and it is underlain by a variable but thicker mantle lithosphere (commonly >100 km thick). It is intriguing why these two regions have similar surface elevations (2-3 km on average) and regional geomorphology, despite predicted lithospheric structures. This study will apply new class of geodynamic models to understand how such plateaux form in response to plate collision/convergence and possible mantle upwelling/support. By comparing models with different setups (varying lithospheric thicknesses, strength profiles etc.) suggested by the natural case studies, this study will provide a more general assessment of controls on plateau growth with 2-D and 3-D perspectives in the context of Arabia-Eurasia collision. Further, the study will also help to explain the role of the forces that generate dynamic topography in the evolution of such geologic structures.

How to cite: Çetiner, U., van Hunen, J., Göğüş, O., Allen, M., and Valentine, A.: Arabia-Eurasia Collision and The Geodynamic Models for Plateau Uplift in Turkish-Iranian Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-568, 2022.

EGU22-765 | Presentations | TS7.4

Fracture networks in a Late Jurassic Arab-D reservoir outcrop analogue, Upper Jubaila Formation, Saudi Arabia. 

Yuri Panara, Pankaj Khanna, Viswasanthi Chandra, Thomas Finkbeiner, and Volker Vahrenkamp

Fracture networks are responsible for channeling flow in subsurface reservoirs (hydrocarbon or geothermal) and markedly impact well productivity and ultimate recovery. Yet, methods to provide fracture (network) distribution at sufficiently high resolution are still lacking – mainly because subsurface data do not adequately capture natural fractures at the mesoscale (cm to m in size) beyond the well bore. In this study we utilize an outcrop analogue to bridge this scale gap.  Over the last decades 3D digital photogrammetry drastically improved in terms of measurement amount and quality enabling the collection of large data sets over wide outcrops. Such data provide critical insights on depositional and structural heterogeneities that may then be utilized for reservoir analogue simulations. Subject of this study is an outcrop in Wadi Laban located in SW Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, along the Mecca-Riyadh highway. We constructed a reliable 3D Digital Outcrop Model (DOMs) at high resolution of the Late Jurassic (Kimmeridgian) Upper Jubaila Formation following a ~800m long escarpment without any occlusion or bias. In particular we reconstruct a colorized dense point cloud using the high-quality setting of Agisoft Metashape© software. We investigated DOMs with CloudCompare© software (CloudCompare, 2021) to map the visible fractures 3D exposure and infer general fractures pattern. Four fracture sets are evident in the data: the predominant sets 1 and 2 are roughly E-W oriented, while sets 3 and 4 are roughly NNE-SSW oriented. Most fractures are strata bound and sub-vertical in nature. Fracture intensity (P21) analysis along the entire outcrop enables us to describe and quantify lateral and vertical variability. Laterally natural fractures are concentrated in corridors with a spacing of few tens of meters. Vertically, fracture intensity is heterogeneous. Furthermore, we found a strong correspondence between fracture intensity on the outcrop and a porosity log acquired on core samples from a well drilled only a few meters behind the outcrop. The outcome of this study provides a step forward for the comparison of outcrop and subsurface fractures, and expand the application of outcrop data to generate high resolution and fidelity reservoir analogue models.

How to cite: Panara, Y., Khanna, P., Chandra, V., Finkbeiner, T., and Vahrenkamp, V.: Fracture networks in a Late Jurassic Arab-D reservoir outcrop analogue, Upper Jubaila Formation, Saudi Arabia., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-765, 2022.

EGU22-1162 | Presentations | TS7.4

Subsidence and Sedimentation Rates of the Beni Suef Basin, Egypt: Insights From the Burial and Thermal History Modeling 

Ahmed Yousef Tawfik, Robert Ondrak, Gerd Winterleitner, and Maria Mutti

The Beni Suef Basin, a rift basin in north-central Egypt, was formed in response to the NeoTethys and Atlantic oceans opening and the associated tectonic motion between Africa and Eurasia during the Early Cretaceous. It is bisected by the Nile Valley into the East and West of the Nile Provinces (EON and WON) and comprises a mixed siliciclastic-carbonate succession ranging from the Albian to the Oligocene.

Burial and thermal history modeling was performed to investigate the subsidence and sedimentation rates in the context of the tectonic evolution of the basin. Tareef-1x well from the EON and Fayoum-1x well from the WON were selected for this study, where the input data and the boundary conditions were incorporated based on the available well reports and literature.

The results show that during the Albian syn-rift phase, sedimentation was initiated slightly later with low burial rates of about 33 m/My in the EON compared with high sedimentation rates of about 210 m/My in the WON. The post-rift phase was characterized by rapid thermal subsidence accompanied by relatively moderate sedimentation rates of around 117 m/My in the EON and 97 m/My in the WON. By the Late Cretaceous, an erosional uplift occurred and culminated through the entire Paleocene resulting in the removal of some parts of the Late Cretaceous Khoman Formation from both sides of the basin. Subsidence had resumed during the Eocene due to extensional tectonics with elevated average sedimentation rates of approximately 145 m/My in the EON compared with relatively low sedimentation rates of approximately 74 m/My in the WON. These phases are interrupted by a hiatus period during the Late Eocene-Oligocene in the EON, while the WON has continued subsiding and resulted in the deposition of the Oligocene Dabaa Formation. The Miocene thermal uplift represents the last tectonic phase, which led to significant erosion from the Eocene Apollonia Formation in the EON and the Oligocene Dabaa Formation in the WON.

The implications on the hydrocarbons potentiality were also investigated through the thermal history modeling, where we found that the Turonian Abu Roash “F” source rock exists in the early oil window with a transformation ratio of about 20 % across the entire basin. While the Lower Kharita shale source rock, which is only deposited in the WON, has reached the late oil window with a transformation ratio of approximately 70 %.

In summary, sedimentation began slightly later in the EON (Middle to Late Albian) compared with the WON (Early Albian), where the paleo basement high has hindered the deposition of the Early Albian Lower Kharita shale in the EON compared with the WON, thus caused a delay at the beginning of the deposition. The different sedimentation rates across the basin could be attributed to various factors such as the amount of sediment supply, climate conditions, different slopes across the basin, and /or lithology, which need to be addressed in further research.

How to cite: Tawfik, A. Y., Ondrak, R., Winterleitner, G., and Mutti, M.: Subsidence and Sedimentation Rates of the Beni Suef Basin, Egypt: Insights From the Burial and Thermal History Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1162, 2022.

EGU22-1319 | Presentations | TS7.4

Assessing the geometry of the Main Himalayan thrust in central Nepal: Insights from thermokinematic modelling 

Suryodoy Ghoshal, Nadine McQuarrie, Delores M. Robinson, Katherine Huntington, and Todd A. Ehlers

The 2015 Gorkha earthquake reignited an existing debate about whether geometric barriers on faults play a role in containing the propagation of ruptures. Models suggest that the extent of the Gorkha earthquake rupture, and of other historical earthquakes were controlled by the locations of ramps in the Main Himalayan thrust (MHT), notably on the western edge of the rupture. The existence of such a pronounced lateral boundary to the west of the Gorkha epicenter is supported by an offset in the surface trace of the Main Central thrust (MCT), closely followed by an offset in the distribution of young (<5 Ma) muscovite 40Ar/39Ar (MAr) ages. However, the zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) and apatite fission track ages show more linear east-west distributions over the same region, as does Physiographic Transition 2 (PT2). We explore the formation of these relationships by combining forward-modeled balanced cross-sections through the Marsyangdi, Daraundi, and Budhi Gandaki valleys in central Nepal, and investigate the continuity of active structures across the western portion of the Gorkha rupture. The sequential kinematics of each of these sections are combined with a thermokinematic model (PECUBE) to evaluate the exhumation and cooling histories of the rocks exposed at the surface. We gauge the validity of these models by comparing their predicted cooling ages to measured ages, discarding those that do not match the measured distribution of cooling ages.

Our 3D models show that the offset in the surface geology along the Daraundi is due to a shorter (by 1/3) Trishuli thrust sheet, that has been completely translated to the south of the modern ramp and folded by the Lesser Himalayan duplex. Similarly, the southern extent of the reset MAr ages is also controlled by these relationships requiring observed surface offsets to be the result of changes in the hanging wall rocks translated over the ramp, rather than changes in the geometry of the modern ramp. Notably, the continuity and location of the modern MHT ramp is evidenced by the linear distribution of the youngest ZHe and AFT ages, which are most sensitive to the location of the active ramp. Additionally, the out-of-sequence thrust responsible for PT2 soles directly into the modern ramp during its proposed period of activity at ~1.2 Ma, resulting in the highly linear trace of PT2, running parallel to the location of the ramp. These linear relationships and their reproducibility in thermo-kinematic models argue strongly against any geometric offsets in the modern MHT ramp that have been proposed to limit rupture propagation in central Nepal.

How to cite: Ghoshal, S., McQuarrie, N., Robinson, D. M., Huntington, K., and Ehlers, T. A.: Assessing the geometry of the Main Himalayan thrust in central Nepal: Insights from thermokinematic modelling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1319, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1319, 2022.

EGU22-1665 | Presentations | TS7.4

Coeval volcanism and rotation of Neotethyan oceanic crust in the Oman ophiolite – fact or fiction? 

Antony Morris, Anita Di Chiara, Mark Anderson, Chris MacLeod, Louise Koornneef, James Hepworth, and Michelle Harris

The upper crustal volcanic section of the Oman suprasubduction zone ophiolite is divided into an older V1 sequence, overlain by slightly younger V2 lavas and (in places) a final V3 sequence. Paleomagnetic data from the V1 and V2 sequences of the northern massifs of the ophiolite have been used previously to infer that clockwise rotation of the Oman lithosphere began while the upper crust was actively accreting, with V1 lavas apparently more rotated than the overlying V2 units. This inference has been largely accepted by the geological community and has influenced models for the spreading history and geodynamic evolution of the Oman ophiolite.

Here we present new paleomagnetic data from well-exposed and structurally well-constrained volcanic sequences in the Salahi and Fizh massifs of the ophiolite that discredit this interpretation. In contrast to previous studies that employed standard structural tilt corrections, we use a net tectonic rotation approach to determine rotation parameters, taking confidence limits on input variables into account using Monte Carlo modelling. Importantly, we correct the magnetization direction and structural orientation of the older V1 lavas for the effects of the net tectonic rotation of the younger V2 lavas prior to calculating rotation parameters for the older units. Results demonstrate that both massifs rotated ~120° clockwise around steeply-plunging rotation axes after eruption of the V2 lavas. This rotation occurred during roll-back of the Neotethyan subduction zone in response to impingement of the Arabian margin with the trench. Early rotation of the Salahi V1 lavas around shallowly-plunging, broadly ridge-parallel axes indicates only simple tilting between eruption of the V1 and V2 sequences, and no early rotation of the Fizh V1 lavas is required at all. These new constraints on the evolution of the ophiolite therefore provide no evidence of vertical axis rotation during accretion of the Oman volcanic sequences.

How to cite: Morris, A., Di Chiara, A., Anderson, M., MacLeod, C., Koornneef, L., Hepworth, J., and Harris, M.: Coeval volcanism and rotation of Neotethyan oceanic crust in the Oman ophiolite – fact or fiction?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1665, 2022.

The northern extent of the supercontinent Gondwana in the late Neoproterozoic-Cambrian is not well defined. In most localities the continental margin is covered by thick sedimentary successions, formed following the successive rifting of Tethyan Oceans that episodically detached continental terranes from the edge of the supercontinent. East of the Mediterranean, despite the continental continuity between the Arabian-Nubian-Shield (ANS) and the Tauride block (a Cadomian terrane), the original transition between the two crustal domains is inaccessible and remains obscured. In Israel, investigations of Late Ediacaran, late-stage igneous intrusions of the ANS in the South, together with granulite xenoliths from the lower crust in the North, allow us to probe into the North-Gondwana edge in the late Neoproterozoic and envisage its transition towards the peri-Gondwana Cadomian realm, as well as the evolution of the North Gondwana crust subsequently to the Neoproterozoic. Geochronology and isotopic geochemistry of alkaline intrusions in the Amram massif (southern Israel) as well as doleritic intrusions in the late Neoproterozoic Zenifim Formation (subsurface of south-central Israel) has revealed an igneous and thermal imprint at ca. 550 Ma recorded by the reset of apatite U-Pb ages, together with additional apatite U-Pb dates taken to represent crystallization. Nd and Hf isotopes in apatite, zircon and whole rock also show the ca. 550 Ma intrusions are isotopically distinct from the ANS and resemble Cadomian magmatism in the Taurides. Granulite xenoliths from the lower crust under the lower Galilee (North Israel) contain abundant zircons of distinct U-Pb-Hf properties. These include detrital grains remnant of Neoproterozoic sediment that was subducted and relaminated to the lower crust, late Carboniferous zircons (peaking at 300 Ma) with contrasting εHf(t) signatures, some of which represent syn-Variscan magmatism, and zircons with the age of the host Pliocene basalt. We demonstrate that the Cadomian (ca. 550 Ma) igneous and thermal imprint on the North ANS may have been driven by proto-Tethys subduction that brought about sediment relamination to the North Gondwana lower crust in the latest Neoproterozoic. The late Carboniferous ages recorded in the xenoliths involve both the reworking of depleted ANS basement as well as the relaminated sediment in the means of metamorphism and minor magmatism. Carboniferous thermal disturbance was associated with the formation of continental scale basin and swell architecture across present-day N Africa, Arabia and Iran, and the development of ‘Hercynian unconformities’ in these areas, that were located at the time south of the passive(?) margin of Paleo-Tethys.

How to cite: Abbo, A., Avigad, D., Gerdes, A., and Morag, N.: The Cadomian and Variscan record of the Gondwana margin in Israel: Protracted Crustal Evolution between the Arabian-Nubian Shield and multiple Tethyan Oceans, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1777, 2022.

The Tethys-derived Semail Ophiolite had formed during the Cenomanien-Turonian. Along with deep-sea sediments, it was obducted onto the Arabian Plate as it was still young, hot and buoyant. Thrusting and loading triggered the formation of the Aruma Foreland system consisting of a foredeep, a forebulge and a backbulge basin.

The studied succession represents the uppermost part of the Permo-Mesozoic shallow marine shelf sequence of the Arabian Platform, which is blanketed at an angular unconformity by shales of the Late Cretaceous Muti Formation of the Aruma (foreland) Group. The structural position of the succession is on the forebulge which is characterized by eroded Cretaceous and Jurassic shelf formations of the Arabian Platform (Wasia-Aruma Break).    

We identified two forebulge successions. Both display repetitive lithofacies, beginning with (1) shallow subtidal massive/poorly bedded bioclastic wackestones to floatstones, followed by (2) peloidal grainstones, (3) ferruginous crusts and (4) shallow marine ferruginous oolites. From base to top, both successions record an overall shallowing-up trend. At the same time, the relative sedimentation rate decreases in the same direction. The coarse-grained massive facies may have been deposited on a regular slope which was well-supplied with bioclasts. The finer grained grainstone facies and their peloids indicate a lower sedimentation rate, reflecting the transition form a regular slope to a forebulge on which in the next step sediment condensation occurred (crusts) and chemical precipitation of ferruginous material (crusts and oolites). Each forebulge succession is capped by clayey material.

The similar facies development of the two successions suggests repetitively similar depositional and tectonic conditions. As both sequences occur at the same site, two vertical forebulge developments are concluded.

The ferruginous crusts formed under at least slightly reducing conditions, associated with minor water-deepening events. Both oolites contain chlorite, hematite, quartz, calcite and apatite. The nuclei of the ooids are often chlorite or hematite fragments, having most-likely derived from preexisting ferruginous crusts. Iron oxyhydroxides and clinochlore of the oolites reflect bathymetric changes to more oxidizing aqueous conditions, associated minor water-shallowing events.

Fe-rich anoxic to sub-oxic sea water of the marine foredeep was the Fe source for the crusts and oolites, coinciding with (1) a high rate of global Cretaceous oceanic crust production, (2) related hydrothermalism and (3) the regional proximity of an active spreading axis. Fe was likely stabilized in ocean water as Fe colloids and organic Fe complexes.

How to cite: Mattern, F., Pracejus, B., Scharf, A., Frijia, G., and Al-Salmani, M.: Two Cretaceous forebulge successions in the Oman Mountains, triggered by the obducted Semail Ophiolite, identified by the facies analysis of limestones, ferruginous crusts and ferruginous oolites, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2123, 2022.

EGU22-2493 | Presentations | TS7.4

Seismic structure of a Tethyan back-arc: transdimensional ambient noise tomography of the Black Sea lithosphere 

Laura Petrescu, Felix Borleanu, and Anica Placinta

The Black Sea is the largest European back-arc basin connected to the subduction and final closure of the Tethys ocean. Its origin and type of crust are widely debated, with contrasting views suggesting it is either a relic of Paleotethys or a rifted back-arc basin formed within the thick and cold Precambrian lithosphere. To investigate the structure of this atypical intra-continental basin, we constructed the highest resolution seismic tomography of the region using the latest techniques of probabilistic inversion of ambient noise data recorded at seismic stations around the sea. Our results indicate the presence of thinned continental crust beneath the basin, likely of Precambrian lithospheric origin, thus invalidating the existence of either a relic Paleotethys fragment or younger oceanic crust. Extension and rifting probably exploited pre-existing sutures, but the rheologically strong lithosphere resisted transition to seafloor spreading. Seismic anisotropy shows complex paleo-deformational imprints within the crust and upper mantle related to the closure of Tethys. Extension caused by subduction roll-back generated anisotropic lithospheric fabric parallel to the rifting axis within the thinnest sections of the crust in the western basin. The eastern part developed on a distinct lithospheric domain that preserves paleo-extension anisotropy signatures in the form of lower crustal viscous deformation. Further south, anisotropy orients along the Balkanide-Pontide collisional system that records the final stages of Neotethys closure. Our results place key constraints on the type of deformations that occurred throughout the Tethyan realm, with fundamental implications for the development and evolution of back-arc basins and continental break-up. 

How to cite: Petrescu, L., Borleanu, F., and Placinta, A.: Seismic structure of a Tethyan back-arc: transdimensional ambient noise tomography of the Black Sea lithosphere, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2493, 2022.

EGU22-3985 | Presentations | TS7.4

Thermal overprinting of Mesozoic shelfal limestones on Jabal Akhdar, Oman 

Bernhard Pracejus, Andreas Scharf, and Frank Mattern

The Jabal Akhdar Dome of the Hajar Mountains (northern Oman) has long been considered to have had no significant thermal overprinting since the start of its doming (Eocene, ~40 to 30 Ma). Only the Semail Ophiolite, obducted during the Late Cretaceous, metamorphosed the overridden sedimentary rocks at its base. However, this is stratigraphically well above the positions of the rocks discussed here. Our findings describe the first evidence for an increased metamorphic alteration of Late Permian, Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous shelfal limestones. Two independent sites were identified, where calcite was either replaced by wollastonite or sulfides. 

 

The calc-silicates, which occur southeast of the Saiq Plateau (stratigraphically above the plateau), contain up to centimeter-sized wollastonite crystals. The conversion into marble has been interrupted, as indicated by relict fossils and ooliths of Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous limestones. So far, the outcrop has been mapped over a length of ~1.2 km. It is dissected by several NW-striking dextral faults in a difficult terrain and, thus, the occurrence may be significantly wider. Wollastonite concentrates in sub-horizontal to gently SE-dipping limestone layers, neighbouring strata may be almost void of it. In places, strong and coarse-grained dolomitisation coincides with decreased wollastonite content. The area is cross-cut by irregular quartz-wollastonite-rich veins.

 

Adjacent to the outcrops are younger quartz-siderite veins, which have almost completely replaced limestone layers (encased wollastonite-carrying limestone relicts). Distal to the mineralisations, the limestones contain decimeter-sized chert nodules. This entire silica-dominated system must have reached 450 ºC in order to form the well crystallised wollastonite. The mostly oxidising character of the environment during overprinting is reflected by fine euhedral hematite grains throughout the examined profile. However, slightly reducing settings promoted the formation of very rare and tiny crystals of erdite (NaFeS2·2H2O) in two places.

 

Sulfides in finely laminated Permian carbonates, which contain fine as well as very coarse-grained black carbonates, occur on the northwestern side of the Saiq Plateau in no longer accessible excavation materials. So far, the search for another outcrop failed, due to the sub-vertical wadi walls near-by. The strongly dominating pyrite is accompanied by trace amounts of sphalerite and less galena. Collectively, sulfides replaced carbonate laminae with fine crystalline impregnations and concentrated in up to decimeter-large lensoid concretionary shapes. Dark carbonaceous laminae and recrystallised coarse-grained materials contain finest graphite flakes. This again indicates temperatures of ~450 ºC, at which the graphite formation started during decarbonisation, also promoting a reducing regime (the sulfides show no signs of oxidation).

 

Our working hypothesis is that the thermal overprint (>450 ºC) coincided with the late Eocene to Oligocene doming event, leading to multiple mafic intrusions. Similar intrusions are known from the Muscat and Batain area and have the same age.

How to cite: Pracejus, B., Scharf, A., and Mattern, F.: Thermal overprinting of Mesozoic shelfal limestones on Jabal Akhdar, Oman, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3985, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3985, 2022.

EGU22-4246 | Presentations | TS7.4

Implications for the pre-Alpine evolution of the Eastern Alps – a U/Pb zircon study on the Austroalpine Schladming Nappe 

Isabella Haas, Walter Kurz, Daniela Gallhofer, and Christoph Hauzenberger

The Schladming Nappe, as a part of the Silvretta-Seckau Nappe System of the Eastern Alps, comprises pre-Alpine remnants of crystalline basement rocks which give important information for reconstructing the Variscan and even pre-Variscan history of the Alps.

The Schladming Nappe mainly consists of paragneisses being intruded by subsequently overprinted granitoids. U-Pb zircon ages were acquired through LA-MC-ICPMS to determine the magmatic emplacement of the metagranitoids and constrain the tectono-metamorphic history of the Schladming Nappe.

Within these meta-granitoids, several intrusive events can be distinguished: (1) a Cambrian event with 206Pb/238U zircon mean ages between 496±6.5 and 501±7 Ma, (2) a Late Devonian/Early Carboniferous event with zircon mean ages between 350±5 Ma and 371±5 Ma and (3) a Permian event with zircon mean ages between 261±3 Ma and 263±3.5 Ma. The youngest age group is only found in metagranitoids from the southeastern part of the Schladming Nappe. The tectonic contact to the metapelites of the Wölz Nappe system and therefore the affiliation of these Permian granitoids to the Schladming Nappe, however, is still enigmatic.

The various age groups can also be differentiated by their whole rock geochemistry. While all of the metagranitoids are peraluminous, the Cambrian age group exhibits higher SiO2 values compared to the Late Devonian age group. The Late Devonian age group shows higher contents of CaO, MgO, FeO, Al2O3, as well Sr and Ba and can be further divided into two subgroups, with one depicting a distinct negative Eu-anomaly (EuN/Eu*=0.44-0.69) and the other subgroup lacking one (EuN/Eu*=0.82-1.08). The Permian age group often displays high contents of K2O, Nb and Y.

The Late Cambrian to Early Ordovician metagranitoids can be classified as part of a magmatic arc system, probably belonging to the northern Gondwana margin. The early Variscan granitoids can also be interpreted as part of an active margin. The Permian granitoids show a within plate granite affiliation and can further be interpreted as A-type granitoids, probably related to post-Variscan lithospheric extension.

How to cite: Haas, I., Kurz, W., Gallhofer, D., and Hauzenberger, C.: Implications for the pre-Alpine evolution of the Eastern Alps – a U/Pb zircon study on the Austroalpine Schladming Nappe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4246, 2022.

Situated between Africa and Eurasia in the eastern Mediterranean, the island of Cyprus has developed on the northern margin of the southern Neotethys by the accretion of three terrains, the Mamonia complex, the Troodos ophiolite, and the Kyrenia terrane. The Kyrenia terrane comprises a tectonic stack of Triassic to Eocene rock units interleaved with basic and acid volcanics and minor metamorphic inliers, alongside an Oligocene-Miocene flysch. Our U-Pb-Hf detrital zircon investigation in the Kyrenia Triassic to Eocene section reveals a large amount of Neoproterozoic zircons (950-600 Ma), alongside Silurian (∼430 Ma), Carboniferous (∼300 Ma), Triassic (∼240 Ma), and Upper Cretaceous (∼85 Ma) zircons. The Precambrian age profile of all three studied units resembles that of Paleozoic sandstones of the Tauride Block, as well as that of Paleozoic and Mesozoic sandstones found across North Africa. It is interpreted as reflecting the reworking of Paleozoic sandstone units from the Taurides or other peri-Gondwanan source. The presence of a substantial proportion of ~300 Ma zircons, as early as in Triassic sediments of the Kyrenia, is of significant interest because Carboniferous magmatism is confined to the Paleotethyan realm which is traced north of the Taurides. Deposition of the Kyrenia sequence closer to a Northern Tethyan province would better fit its detrital zircon signal. The detrital signal of the Kyrenia, indicative for Eurasian terranes north of the Mediterranean, also differs significantly from that of the Mamonia Complex (SW Cyprus) in which only Afro-Arabian sources are distinguished. Thus, in view of its unusual detrital zircon content, the Kyrenia sequence stands out in the Eastern Mediterranean as an exotic rock pile that cannot be straightforwardly correlated with its neighboring geologic environment.

How to cite: Glazer, A., Avigad, D., Morag, N., Güngör, T., and Gerdes, A.: Detrital zircon evidence for exotic elements in the southern Neotethys: A provenance study of Triassic-Eocene rock units in the Kyrenia terrane, Northern Cyprus, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5391, 2022.

EGU22-6471 | Presentations | TS7.4

Formation and contractional reactivation of the NW Sulu Sea (SE Asia) 

Patricia Cadenas and César R. Ranero

Located in SE Asia in between the Palawan and the Philippine islands, the lozenge-shaped Sulu Sea corresponds to a marginal sea that displays a complex seafloor morphology. The NE-SW trending Cagayan Ridge separates a southeastern deep-water domain, which is bounded by the Sulu Trench towards the east, from a shallower and narrower northwestern domain. Interpretations of low-resolution 2D streamer datasets, ODP Leg 124 drilling results, magnetic, geochemical, and geochronological studies, and gravity inversion results led to distinctive tectonic models, with contrasting basin formation mechanisms, and ages of opening and subsequent contractional reactivation. The debates remain because the structure of most of the Sulu Sea and its along-strike structural variability remain underexplored to date.

We focus on this work on the first detailed analysis of the structure and seismo-stratigraphy of the NW Sulu Sea. Based on the reprocessing, calibration of the Silangan-1 exploration borehole, and interpretation of > 5384 km of 2D seismic data along 19 regional profiles of an irregular grid that covers the whole NW Sulu Sea, we identify, map and interpret the seismo-stratigraphic horizons and units, major structures, and rift-related and syn-orogenic depocenters and structural domains. We define six seismo-stratigraphic units in the NW Sulu Sea, consisting of Quaternary to Paleogene sediments, which developed during an early phase of Paleogene to early Miocene extension, a following early to Middle Miocene phase of contraction, and a late Miocene to Quaternary stage of relative tectonic quiescence. While transpressional faults core uplifted basement areas, strike-slip, high-angle and low-angle oblique extensional faults crosscut continental crystalline basement of variable thickness and bound pull-apart basins, half-grabens and sags respectively. The distribution and trend of rift-related depocenters describe a strong structural segmentation and vary along NW-SE and NE-SW oriented zones. Thrust-cored anticlines, inverted transtensional and transpressional faults and mud diapirs deform the sediment pile and control the geometry of syn-orogenic depocenters distinctively across the NW Sulu Sea.

Normal and oblique trending sets of faults controlled the extension and compartmentalized the NW Sulu Sea. Subsequent contractional reactivation differentiated NE and SW basement and sedimentary domains, separated by the NW Sulu Break Elevation. These domains show a contrasting overall architecture, basement thickness, contractional structures and distribution of rift-related and syn-orogenic depocenters. Rift segmentation, and particularly, basement thickness variations, may have conditioned the type and distribution of contractional deformation.

How to cite: Cadenas, P. and R. Ranero, C.: Formation and contractional reactivation of the NW Sulu Sea (SE Asia), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6471, 2022.

EGU22-7096 | Presentations | TS7.4

Geodynamics of long-term continental subduction and Indian indentation at the India-Eurasia collision zone 

Kai Xue, Wouter P. Schellart, and Vincent Strak

India-Eurasia convergence velocities have dropped significantly from ~18 cm/yr in the Late Cretaceous-earliest Eocene to ~4-5 cm/yr since ~50 Ma. The mechanisms of convergence deceleration, continued convergence since ~50 Ma, long-term continental subduction and long-term Indian indentation into Eurasia still remain controversial. Many previous studies consider an external driving force for the long-term convergence, continental subduction and Indian indentation, and the initial India-Eurasia collision as the trigger for the deceleration. In this study, we investigate the mechanism(s) of the abrupt deceleration, the continued convergence, the long-term continental subduction and long-term Indian indentation using buoyancy-driven analog experiments. We conduct three large-scale experiments to simulate the subduction and collision process at the convergent boundary with different boundary conditions at the 660-km discontinuity, including an infinite viscosity step (the lower-upper-mantle viscosity ratio (ηLMUM) is infinitely high), no viscosity step (ηMUM =1) and an intermediate viscosity step. The experiment with infinite ηLMUM shows a deceleration when the slab tip reaches the 660-km discontinuity, while the other two experiments show a deceleration at the onset of continental subduction. Our experiments show that a higher ηLMUM favors a lower velocity drop at the onset of continental subduction, lower convergence velocities, reduced continental subduction and a higher indentation amount, and vice versa. Furthermore, our models suggest that in nature, with an intermediate-high ηLMUM, the negative buoyancy force of both upper and lower mantle slab segments is the main driver of long-term convergence, continental subduction and Indian indentation.

How to cite: Xue, K., Schellart, W. P., and Strak, V.: Geodynamics of long-term continental subduction and Indian indentation at the India-Eurasia collision zone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7096, 2022.

EGU22-7993 | Presentations | TS7.4

Petrology and Geochemistry of intrusive igneous rock from the Inthanon zone, Northwestern Thailand 

Srett Santitharangkun, Christoph Hauzenberger, Daniela Gallhofer, and Etienne Skrzypek

Large plutons are common within the Inthanon Zone in Northwestern Thailand. These igneous rocks are also known as Central Granitoids Belt in mainland Southeast Asia. They are interpreted to be part of the suture zone between Sibumasu and Indochina and were emplaced mainly in the Upper Triassic.

Here, we present new petrological and geochemical data for the Central Granitoids Belt.  A geochronological study on selected samples will follow.  The sampled granitoids can be separated into three groups: (1) biotite granite, (2) hornblende granite, (3) syenite/monzonite. The samples consist of various light colored to dark grey granitoids due to the type and amount of mafic minerals (biotite or hornblende) present. The general mineral assemblage of all the intrusive igneous rocks is quartz + plagioclase + K-feldspar + biotite + apatite + zircon ± allanite ± titanite ± ilmenite. The biotite granites are mostly composed of biotite aggregates associated with accessory minerals: zircon, ilmenite, and apatite. The syenite/monzonite group usually contains additional clinopyroxene and hornblende. Plagioclase and hornblende of the syenite/monzonite group commonly exhibit a sieve texture.

The biotite granite group is typically peraluminous and belongs to the high-K calk-alkaline to shoshonitic series. The hornblende granite group is mostly peraluminous and of predominantly shoshonitic affinity. The syenite/monzonites are typically metaluminous but also belong to the shoshonitic series. The chondrite normalized rare earth element (REE) patterns are quite similar for all igneous rocks with elevated LREE, pronounced negative Eu anomaly and a flat HREE segment. The granite tectonic discrimination plots after Pearce et al. (1984) classify most samples as syn-collision granites (syn-COLG) and when using the Batchelor and Bowden (1985) discrimination diagram as syn-, late, and post-collisional.

The intrusive igneous rocks from Northwestern Thailand were presumably emplaced in a syn- to post-collisional setting when the Sibumasu block collided with the Sukhothai terrane and was eventually amalgamated to the Indochina block. This led to the closure of the Palaeotethys along the eastern area of the Sibumasu block.

Batchelor, R.A. and Bowden, P. (1985) Petrogenetic Interpretation of Granitoid Rock Series Using Multicationic Parameters. Chemical Geology, 48, 43-55.

Julian A Pearce, Nigel BW Harris, Andrew G Tindle (1984). Trace element discrimination diagrams for the tectonic interpretation of granitic rocks. Journal of Petrology, 25, 956-983.

 

How to cite: Santitharangkun, S., Hauzenberger, C., Gallhofer, D., and Skrzypek, E.: Petrology and Geochemistry of intrusive igneous rock from the Inthanon zone, Northwestern Thailand, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7993, 2022.

EGU22-9219 | Presentations | TS7.4 | Highlight

Mapping the extent of seismoturbidites near the southern Dead Sea Fault in the Gulf of Aqaba 

Matthieu Ribot, Sigurjón Jónsson, Yann Klinger, Ulaş Avsar, and Zeynep Bektaş

Despite multiple research efforts since the late 1950’s, many questions regarding the earthquake activity of the Dead Sea Fault (DSF) remain, in particular for its southernmost portion in the Gulf of Aqaba. This is due to its offshore location and little-known interactions with the Red Sea rift system. The emergence of the NEOM city-project in northern Saudi Arabia and the planned King Salman road crossing across the Gulf of Aqaba have made it important to find answers for these questions related to the earthquake hazard of the region. The last major earthquake in the Gulf of Aqaba occurred in 1995 along one of the main strike-slip fault segments in the gulf, bringing both extremities of the fault rupture closer to failure. Studies of the DSF have found that large events along the entire DSF cluster during relatively short active seismic periods lasting about 100-200 years, separated by longer quiescent periods of about 350-400 years. From a tectonic point of view, the time gap between 1995 and the previous major earthquake in AD1588 conforms to this scheme and suggests that the DSF might be ripe for a new earthquake sequence, with the 1995 earthquake as the starter. That said, new results from GPS and InSAR observations have pointed to possible fault creep in the southern part of the gulf, which would significantly decrease the seismic hazard in the area. To explore this possible creep and to test the clustering model, we investigate new sub-bottom profiling data acquired in December 2019 in the Gulf of Aqaba. We aim to map the extent of sand layers present in the different sub-basins of the gulf and to correlate them with seismoturbidite layers found in sediment cores collected in 2018. By looking at the geographic extent of these sand layers, we also aim to define the source of the coarse deposits, or at least, to determine whether they are related to the regular sediment influx or linked to turbidites generated by slope failures during large earthquakes. Our preliminary results indicate that the sub-bottom profiling data allow us to map sand layers up to a depth of about 8 meters. Considering a sedimentation rate in the gulf between 0.2 - 0.4 mm/year, we could be able to gain an overview of the sediment infill of the Gulf of Aqaba over the last 20 ky or more. Even if the resolution of the sub-bottom profiling data is lower than that of the sediment cores, and the assumptions made for the correlation of the sand layers, due to the scattered grid, do not help to constrain properly the source of the deposits, we can still propose a longer-term overview of the earthquake activity and discuss the temporal organization of the large events in the area.

How to cite: Ribot, M., Jónsson, S., Klinger, Y., Avsar, U., and Bektaş, Z.: Mapping the extent of seismoturbidites near the southern Dead Sea Fault in the Gulf of Aqaba, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9219, 2022.

EGU22-9365 | Presentations | TS7.4

Asymmetrical lithospheric necking of Red Sea rift 

Thamer Aldaajani, Hany Khalil, Philip Ball, Fabio Capitanio, and Khalid Almalki

The Red Sea rift exhibits two distinct rifting styles: in the north, the rifting is magma-poor, the crust is hyperextended and the lithospheric necking is asymmetric, in the south, rifting rapidly localized atop a symmetric lithospheric necking. One of the long-standing questions is what drives such different lithospheric necking style? We ran 2D high-resolution thermomechanical numerical simulations of lithospheric rifting to address the northern and southern Red Sea extensional end members and validate the models’ deformation patterns by comparing them against 2D data-driven structural models. The modelling investigates (a) the effect of rotational extension by varying extension velocities along the Red Sea, and (b) the thermal structure of the southern Red Sea due to plume impingement, while the analysis of the outcomes focuses on the early rifting stage, which involves normal rifting and dike intrusion. We find that asymmetrical lithospheric necking in the central and northern Red Sea is potentially driven by the velocity boundary conditions and inherited structures, mainly the Sirhan rift. The decoupling between the upper portion of the lithosphere and the asymmetrical lithospheric necking, which plays an essential role in the observed deformation patterns in the Arabian margin, is likely controlled by the lower crustal rheology and thickness. Furthermore, we find that the Afar plume near the southern Red Sea, which introduced in our models in form of thermal anomaly, promotes rifting localization.

How to cite: Aldaajani, T., Khalil, H., Ball, P., Capitanio, F., and Almalki, K.: Asymmetrical lithospheric necking of Red Sea rift, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9365, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9365, 2022.

The eastern Mediterranean Sea preserves crust that was trapped during the collision of Africa with Eurasia and the closure of the Neo-Tethyan Ocean. Thick sedimentary blanketing (10 to 15 km) complicates our ability to assess the nature of the crust, and therefore it has remained one of the least understood regions of the collision belt. In this presentation, I review recent marine geophysical observations (surface and deep-tow magnetics, high-resolution bathymetry and seismic reflection data) and discuss their geodynamic implications. The surface total field and vector magnetic anomalies from the Herodotus Basin reveal a sequence of long-wavelength NE-SW lineated anomalies that straddle the entire basin suggesting a deep two-dimensional magnetic source layer. The magnetic vector data indicate an abrupt transition from a 2D to a 3D magnetic structure along the eastern edge of the Herodotus Basin and west of the Eratosthenes Seamount, where a prominent gravity feature is found. These findings indicate that the Herodotus Basin preserves remnants of oceanic crust accreted along a mid-ocean ridge system that spread in an NW-SE direction. The African Plate's continuous northward and counterclockwise motion during the Paleozoic and Mesozoic allow predicting the crustal remanent magnetization directions, which dictate the shape of the present-day magnetic anomalies. The shape of the Herodotus anomalies best fit Carboniferous magnetization directions. The combination of surface and deep-tow magnetic data, as well as thermal and magnetic forward modeling, suggest that spreading was slow (~25 km/myr half spreading rates) and that the upper oceanic crust has been entirely demagnetized, probably due to the heating effect induced by the thick sedimentary coverage.

 

The stretched continental crust of the Levant Basin, found east of the Herodotus Basin, preserves a series of horsts and grabens that generally orient in an orthogonal direction relative to the spreading direction, suggesting that they may have formed concurrently with the initial opening of the Herodotus Basin. Earthquake data and long NW-SE bathymetric scars found within the northern edge of the Nile deep-sea fan suggest that an active fault belt transfers the motion from the Gulf of Suez toward the northern convergence boundaries. This fault belt is directed toward, and merges with, the continental-ocean boundary that straddles the eastern Herodotus Basin. This observation may indicate that the mechanical transition from the rather weak and stretched continental crust of the Levant to the relatively strong oceanic Herodotus crust has guided the location of the western boundary of the Sinai Microplate, formed during the Oligocene by the fragmentation of the African Plate.

How to cite: Granot, R.: Trapped remnant of the Tethyan realm: the influence of ancient tectonics on the present-day geodynamics of the eastern Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9408, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9408, 2022.

EGU22-11305 | Presentations | TS7.4

The Neotethyan Arabian necking zone exposed at the SE Oman mountains: field evidence and consequences 

Maxime Ducoux, Emmanuel Masini, Andreas Scharf, and Sylvain Calassou

The Late Cretaceous Oman Mountains are generally assumed to result from obduction followed by the inversion of the mid-Permian- to Triassic Neotethyan rifted margin. However, the key rift-related crustal features, such as a necking zone or hyper-extended rift domains remain inferred and poorly described so far. In this study, we investigate the tectono-stratigraphic record of the eastern part of the Oman Mountains where the exposed Tonian (Neoproterozoic) crystalline basement outcrops together with the pre- to syn-obduction sedimentary record in the Ja’alan massif area. The description of these units together with subsurface data enables to describe the former Arabian necking zone. The Ja’alan massif itself and the Arabian platform to the southwest represent the former proximal margin domain. It is characterized by the eroded basement sealed by post-obduction continental to shallow marine sediments. In contrast, the north-eastern side of the massif is flanked by Permian-Mesozoic deep marine post-rift sediments (Batain Group) equivalent to the Hawasina thrust sheet in the Oman Mountains. These two endmember paleogeographic units are separated by a major N20 dipping top-to-the-NE normal fault with dip-slip kinematics (slikensides with striae, S/C-fabric). The damage zone of this fault is characterized by a cataclastic and a gouges fault zone, overlain by slope facies with syn-kinematic polymictic mega-breccias reworking the adjacent basement. The breccias are grading finer upwards, contain conglomerate and sandstone interbeds interpreted as to slope-environment turbiditic channel deposits. This exhumation and rift-related record is unconformably covered by the post-obduction sequence affected by a late Cenozoic E/W-directed low-amplitude shortening. The intensity of shortening is increasing toward the NW leading to reactivate the Arabian Necking zone as a ramp for the Hawasina thrust system. Based on these observations, we propose a new geodynamic model showing that the final stage of the obduction result from the inversion of the former Arabian necking zone with significant impacts on the evaluation of (1) the shortening rates accommodated and (2) the former architecture of the Arabian Tethyan rifted margin. As the belt never recorded a mature continent-continent collision, we think that the Oman study case could significantly help to investigate the dynamics of hyper-extended rifted margins inversion at an early orogenic stage.

How to cite: Ducoux, M., Masini, E., Scharf, A., and Calassou, S.: The Neotethyan Arabian necking zone exposed at the SE Oman mountains: field evidence and consequences, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11305, 2022.

EGU22-11791 | Presentations | TS7.4

Geomorphology of the Mabahiss Deep area, Northern Red Sea: New insights from high-resolution multibeam bathymetric mapping 

Margherita Fittipaldi, Daniele Trippanera, Nico Augustin, Froukje M. van der Zwan, Alexander Petrovic, Dirk Metz, and Sigurjon Jónsson

The Red Sea is a unique place to study a young oceanic rift basin and the interplay between magma and tectonics at a young divergent plate boundary. The spreading rate of the Red Sea rift changes from ~17 mm/yr in the south to ~7 mm/yr in the north, and so does the morphology. The southern Red Sea is a continuous and well-developed oceanic rift, whereas the so-called deeps characterize the central portion with oceanic crust separated by shallower inter-trough zones, and the northern part contains more widely spaced deeps with extensive areas covered by sediments in between. While the central Red Sea morphology has been extensively studied, the structure of the northern Red Sea and its link to the central Red Sea are less clear. Indeed, the northern Red Sea rift, marked at its southern end by Mabahiss Deep, is offset by about 60 km to the central Red Sea axis by the still poorly understood Zabargad Fracture Zone.

Here we aim to improve the understanding of the volcano-tectonic setting of the Mabahiss Deep area with new high-resolution bathymetric data from multiple multibeam surveys with R/V Thuwal and R/V Pelagia. Our results show that the 15 km long, 9 km wide, and 2250 m deep Mabahiss Deep, and the 800 m high and 5 km wide central volcano, are the most prominent structures of the area. The deep is bordered by a series of Red Sea parallel normal faults on both sides, forming a graben-like structure and thus suggesting a rift-like morphology. The central volcano has a 2 km wide summit caldera containing several volcanic cones. Several normal faults cut its southern flank, and radial fractures are present on its summit. In the multibeam backscatter data, several recent lava flows (<10 kyrs) are visible on the northern and southern flanks of the volcano. Even if the ocean floor outside the deep is mainly covered by salt flows, limiting structural analysis of the surrounding areas, the Mabahiss Deep area and the central Red Sea have similar rift-like structures with stable axial MORB-volcanism, showing typical features found at other (ultra-)slow-spreading ridges, such as magma focusing on the segment centers. This suggests that although the Mabahiss Deep appears to be offset from the central Red Sea rift, the same processes are probably taking place in this area.

Our new high-resolution bathymetric mapping allows a more precise structural and geomorphological analysis of the Mabahiss Deep area that represents a starting point for understanding the overall structure of the poorly studied northern Red Sea.

How to cite: Fittipaldi, M., Trippanera, D., Augustin, N., van der Zwan, F. M., Petrovic, A., Metz, D., and Jónsson, S.: Geomorphology of the Mabahiss Deep area, Northern Red Sea: New insights from high-resolution multibeam bathymetric mapping, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11791, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11791, 2022.

EGU22-11825 | Presentations | TS7.4

The Norian magmatic rocks of Jabuka, Brusnik and Vis Islands (Croatia) and their bearing on the evolution of Triassic magmatism in the Adria Plate 

Matteo Velicogna, Marko Kudurna Prasek, Luca Ziberna, Angelo De Min, Valentina Brombin, Fred Jourdan, Paul R. Renne, and Andrea Marzoli

The magmatic bodies of Jabuka, Brusnik, and Vis Islands of the Adriatic Sea are located in the easternmost part of the Adria Plate (Adriatic Unit according to Slovenec & Šegvić, 2021), close to the External Dinarides (Pamić and Balen, 2005). The magmatic rocks on the islands are, from West to East, intrusive bodies on Jabuka, sub-intrusive on Brusnik, and effusive rocks on Vis.

Feldspar separates from Jabuka and Brusnik Islands yielded mini-plateau 40Ar/39Ar ages of 229.0 ± 5.4 Ma and 221.5 ± 2.5 Ma indicating that this magmatism is Carnian-Norian in age. The whole-rock geochemical compositions (major and trace elements, Sr-Nd isotopes) indicate that the magmatic rocks of the Croatian Islands range from tholeiitic to calc-alkaline, yielding a subduction signature. This signature is also shared by coeval magmas from the Adria Plate and may be related to crustal components subducted during the Hercynian orogeny and recycled within the mantle source(s) of this anorogenic magmatism.

How to cite: Velicogna, M., Prasek, M. K., Ziberna, L., De Min, A., Brombin, V., Jourdan, F., Renne, P. R., and Marzoli, A.: The Norian magmatic rocks of Jabuka, Brusnik and Vis Islands (Croatia) and their bearing on the evolution of Triassic magmatism in the Adria Plate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11825, 2022.

Continental collision succeeds long term subduction of oceanic lithosphere into the earth's mantle whereby the negative buoyancy of the downgoing oceanic lithosphere (slab) provides the principal driving force for plate motions. Previous studies have shown that subduction-induced mantle flow could drive overriding plate shortening and orogenesis, and the arrival of the positively buoyant lithosphere at the trench affects the dynamics of the overriding plate and plate motions. The subsequent slab detachment at the subducted continent-ocean margin removes the driving force in the system and eventuates in cessation of subduction (Cloos, 1993)  and plate convergence. The India-Eurasia subduction-collision system has multiple inferred slab break-off episodes (Replumaz et al., 2010), yet convergence is still ongoing. Here, we present 2D-cartesian buoyancy-driven numerical models of continental collision after subduction of a long oceanic plate (~6000 km) in a whole mantle reservoir (2880km), investigating the dynamics of such systems in the presence of detached slabs. These models’ wide aspect ratio (6:1) allows for exploring deep subduction of oceanic slabs and detached slab(s), approximately at the centre of the domain, thereby minimising the effect of free slip sidewalls on obtained slab morphology in the mantle and associated mantle flow. Our results indicate that poloidal mantle flow induced by the sinking of the detached slab sustain long term convergence in collisional settings. Although 2D models lack the 3D components of mantle flow, these models can be used to understand the dynamics of the centre of >4000km wide subductions zones and facilitate interpretation in light of tomographic and plate reconstruction studies.

 

References:

Cloos, M. (1993). Lithospheric buoyancy and collisional orogenesis: Subduction of oceanic plateaus, continental margins, island arcs, spreading ridges, and seamounts. Geological Society of America Bulletin, 105(6), 715-737.

Replumaz, A., Negredo, A. M., Guillot, S., & Villaseñor, A. (2010). Multiple episodes of continental subduction during India/Asia convergence: Insight from seismic tomography and tectonic reconstruction. Tectonophysics, 483(1-2), 125-134.

How to cite: Laik, A., Schellart, W., and Strak, V.: Convergence at continental collision zones: Insights from long-term 2D geodynamic models buoyancy-driven subduction and collision., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12441, 2022.

The Eocene Lower and Middle members of Rus Formation are exposed at the King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM) campus and contain 'odd' structural features. Previously, such structures were overlooked or misinterpreted by other researchers. In this study, we interpret these structures as hydroplastic kinematic indicators in the basal part of the Middle Rus Member. Their occurrence is related to the Rus soft-sediment detachment, a major displacement zone at the boundary/interface between the Lower and Middle Rus. The structures are fist-sized vugs coupled with carrot- or comet-trail imprints (VCT structures), previously translated calcite geodes. VCT structures demonstrate NNW (345°) transport/slip and are found on flat to low-dipping surfaces characterized as Y, R, and P shears according to the Rus detachment orientation. The Andersonian transtension stress regime is indicated by palaeostress analysis, but it was not enough to activate the Rus soft-sediment detachment. The negative effective principal stress σ3' and the exceptionally low frictional coefficient generated by fluid pressure resulted in detachment activity. Because it reveals the Arabian platform's instability in the larger area of the Dammam Dome during the Late Eocene, the soft-sediment Rus detachment can be considered a 'sensitive stress sensor' for the Zagros collision. The beginning of the Zagros collision, which was previously thought to occur during the Oligocene based on the well-known pre-Neogene unconformity, is credited with this instability.

How to cite: Osman, M. and Tranos, M.: New hydroplastic structures of the Eocene Rus Soft-sediment Detachment (Eastern Saudi Arabia) and their contribution to the dating of the Zagros Collision, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13058, 2022.

EGU22-13597 | Presentations | TS7.4

Mineralogy, structure and tectonic significance of quartz veins from the northern Saih Hatat Dome (eastern Oman Mountains) 

Andreas Scharf, Frank Mattern, Bernhard Pracejus, Ivan Callegari, Robert Bolhar, Sobhi Nasir, Saja Al-Wahaibi, Laila Al-Battashi, Marwa Al-Hadhrami, Thuraiya Al-Harthi, and Safiya Al-Suqri

The rocks of the Saih Hatat Dome (SHD) formed during and after two major geological events shaping Arabia: 1) Subduction of continental rocks in the course of the Late Cretaceous Semail Ophiolite obduction onto the Arabian Plate and 2) Exhumation of >16 km and high deformation/folding in the northeastern part of the SHD. The latter resulted in a ~20 km wide recumbent fold (Saih Hatat Fold Nappe). The sub-horizontal fold axis of this fold trends NNE in the northern SHD. The core of the SHD and the recumbent fold consist of dark Neoproterozoic meta-shales and meta-sandstones, while its margin (and upper/lower limbs of the recumbent fold) consist of Permian cliff-forming carbonates.

Within the northern SHD, numerous milky quartz veins occur. We structurally and mineralogical analyzed >500 of these veins, covering an area of ~200 km2. The veins vary in width from one centimeter to a few meters, while the length ranges between several decimeters to several decameters. Associated with the predominant milky quartz, are calcite, siderite, chlorite, albite, anorthite, actinolite, rutile, hematite, goethite, and pyrrhotite. Rare molybdenite aggregates seem to replace carbonate, in which it occurs exclusively. Quartz microstructures include bulging (BLG) recrystallization, sub-grain rotation (SGR) recrystallization, and undulose extinction. Sub-grains and triple junctions in quartz are common. The mineralogy and quartz microstructures indicate maximum peak temperature conditions of ~400-500°C.

At least two sets of veins can be distinguished. Both vein sets occur mostly in clusters and partly form vein swarms. The mineralogy and quartz microstructure of both vein sets is similar. The older set 1 has been folded by the Saih Hatat Fold Nappe. Thus, vein formation predates 76-70 Ma. Furthermore, veins of set 1 are often sub-parallelly oriented to the main foliation of the host rocks, and they may be boudinaged. They may form complicated vein structures. We assume that this vein set initially formed during the Permian Pangean/Tethys rifting. The second vein set is abundant, sub-vertically and strikes consistently E/W to ESE/WNW. These veins cut the overall moderately NW-dipping bedding surfaces of the ambient rocks. Set 2 veins either formed during exhumation of the dome (Late Cretaceous to early Eocene and late Eocene to Oligocene) or they are part of the NW-striking sinistral Hajar Shear Zone, which affected the entire eastern Oman Mountains during the Oligocene to early Miocene. Ongoing U-Pb dating of carbonates and further field survey will further contribute to the understanding of their age and tectonic setting.

How to cite: Scharf, A., Mattern, F., Pracejus, B., Callegari, I., Bolhar, R., Nasir, S., Al-Wahaibi, S., Al-Battashi, L., Al-Hadhrami, M., Al-Harthi, T., and Al-Suqri, S.: Mineralogy, structure and tectonic significance of quartz veins from the northern Saih Hatat Dome (eastern Oman Mountains), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13597, 2022.

EGU22-164 | Presentations | TS4.1

Speleothem deformation due to the 2017 Mw 6.6 Bodrum–Kos earthquake in a cave on Pserimos (Dodecanese, Greece) 

Bernhard Grasemann, Lukas Plan, Ivo Baron, and Denis Scholz

Although damaged speleothems have been widely investigated to study paleo-earthquake records in caves, only few reports could directly link damages to specific recent earthquakes. We mapped before the 2017 Mw 6.6 Bodrum–Kos earthquake the so-far unexplored Korakia Cave on Pserimos island in the Dodecanese (Greece), which is located at the transition between the Aegean and Anatolian region and is known for its strong seismicity. The cave formed along an active normal fault and records numerous broken columns and flowstones sealed by younger speleothems. New 230Th/U-ages show that paleoseismic events occurred since the formation of the cave, which is older than the limit of the dating method. During a cave visit 2 months after the 2017 Mw 6.6 Bodrum–Kos earthquake we noted that c. 10 cm small stalactites, which were actively growing along fractures in the cave ceiling, have been chipped off by movements along the fractures and were lying on flowstones covered by greenish biofilms. Removal of the broken fragments demonstrated that the chlorophyll pigment below the position of the fragments did not show a colour difference to the surrounding area, which is exposed to the daylight of the cave entrance. The preservation of the photoautotrophic biofilm, which can survive only a few months without daylight, suggests that the stalactites have been broken by the 2017 Mw 6.6 Bodrum–Kos earthquake, which also caused the collapse of several buildings on the island of Kos only 4 km S of Pserimos. We conclude that earthquake capable of causing small shear displacements on fractures can damage speleothems. However, other delicate speleothems including long and slim stalactites remained undamaged.

How to cite: Grasemann, B., Plan, L., Baron, I., and Scholz, D.: Speleothem deformation due to the 2017 Mw 6.6 Bodrum–Kos earthquake in a cave on Pserimos (Dodecanese, Greece), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-164, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-164, 2022.

Continental transform faults are generally known to have widely distributed structures and sparse seismicity, in opposite to their oceanic counterparts. The North Anatolian Shear Zone (NASZ) is an ideal example, where the total deformation is shared between multiple structures especially during its evolutionary stages. The North Anatolian Fault (NAF), the most prominent member of the NASZ, started to form of about 11 Ma in the east and propagated to the west, reaching to the Marmara Sea only a few hundred thousand years ago. This principal displacement zone generally extends as a single strand from its easternmost tip to the west until Bolu for about 900 km. To the west of Bolu, it bifurcates into two branches, Düzce and Mudurnu Valley segments, delimiting the Almacık Flake (AF) respectively to the north and south. Although there is a considerable number of multi-disciplinary studies on the kinematics and history of active faulting within and around the AF, we still have gaps in our knowledge on (a) the ratio of strain distribution, (b) time of formation of bounding fault segments and (c) their evolutionary stages.

In order to fulfil some parts of this gap, we studied the major morphometric indices, including hypsometric curve and integral (HI), asymmetry factor (Af), channel concavity (θ), chi (χ) and knickpoint analyses on drainage basins across the whole AF and all surrounding fault segments. Our goal is not only to document the comparative tectonic effect of the bounding fault segments on the topography, but also to test any potential cumulative morphological response to pre- and post-peak structures, especially along the Düzce Segment. Almost all of 83 extracted drainage basins yield high HI values, usually ranging between 0.4 and 0.72, and suggest a rejuvenating morphology compatible with the general ‘uplift hypothesis’ for the AF. In more details, θ and χ values point out the strong and confined effect of the active bounding faults. Moreover, knickpoints do not show evidence for any pre-peak structures rather than recent active faulting. This may be result of limited size, thus ages, of drainage basins, which are cut by bounding faults at both sides of the AF. Alternatively, these fault segments may be older than previous assumptions, whereas the effect of pre- and post-peak shear structures on topography has already been erased mainly by external processes. On the other hand, χ values, based on 0.45 reference θ, suggest a high incision along the western sections of the Mudurnu Valley Segment, which may indicate a strain transfer from north to south. Nevertheless, the breach of a landslide dam of about 5750 years ago and the strong incision of the Mudurnu River following this event to the south of the AF, as suggested by previous studies, can be another reason for this anomaly. Briefly, our preliminary results suggest a strong tectonic control on the AF’s topography mainly due to the activity of the bounding structures. We do not see any morphometric evidence for the secondary (pre- and post-peak) faults in the near past of the NASZ around the AF.

How to cite: Kiray, H. N., Sançar, T., and Zabcı, C.: Spatial strain distribution along continental transform faults: insights from morphometric analyses of the Düzce and Mudurnu Valley segments (North Anatolian Fault, NW Turkey), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-459, 2022.

EGU22-1477 | Presentations | TS4.1

Incipient lithospheric collision throughout the East Mediterranean 

David Fernández-Blanco and César R. Ranero


We propose that lithospheric collision of Africa and Eurasia is incipient throughout the entire East Mediterranean. Our evidence confirms the incipient continent-continent collision that has been recently proposed for the Cyprus Arc and showcases how collision is expressed at depth and across the Hellenic Arc. We provide evidence of basin-wide lithospheric-scale collision by coupling, at tectonic scale (1.5M km2), quantitative joint analysis of submarine and terrestrial relief, and the interpretation of a compilation of regional vintage multichannel seismic data (>46.000 km), reprocessed with modern techniques. No megathrust surface marking a subduction interplate contact is imaged in any seismic line, and the relief across sedimentary piles is not shaped as mechanically-accreted wedges. Instead, continent-continent collision is expressed across plates in two modes along longitude. In the offshore regions south of Cyprus and Crete, submarine thrust systems with no frontal structure nor imbrication, and lacking latitudinal continuation, record collision stacking basin sediments vertically. Onshore, concurrent uplift and extension are recorded by uplifting strandlines, hanging valleys, and normal faulting, in both continents, and neatly so in the African margin in front of Crete. Joint plate deformation at lithospheric scale is further inferred as wavelengths of relief coherent across both plates. Regions located latitudinally to these collisional sites extrude away obliquely, either rigidly along transpressional systems, as immediately east of Cyprus and Crete, or through flow and halokinesis of Messinian salts, as on the eastern and western sectors of the Mediterranean Ridge. Our evidence typifies incipient lithospheric collision as expressed throughout the East Mediterranean.

How to cite: Fernández-Blanco, D. and R. Ranero, C.: Incipient lithospheric collision throughout the East Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1477, 2022.

EGU22-1692 | Presentations | TS4.1

Slow-slip events destabilize upper-plate and trigger large-magnitude earthquake at the western-end of the Hellenic Subduction System 

Vasiliki Mouslopoulou, Vasso Saltogianni, Gian Maria Bocchini, Simone Cesca, Jonathan Bedford, Armin Dielforder, Onno Oncken, Michael Gianniou, and Gesa Petersen

Slow slip events (SSEs) in subduction zones can precede large-magnitude earthquakes and may therefore serve as precursor indicators, but the triggering of earthquakes by slow slip remains poorly understood. Here we report on a multidisciplinary dataset that captures a synergy of slow slip events, earthquake swarms and fault-interactions during the ~5 years leading up to the 2018 Mw 6.9 Zakynthos Earthquake at the western termination of the Hellenic Subduction System (HSS). We find that this long-lasting preparatory phase was initiated by a slow-slip event that released, over a period of 4-months, aseismic slip equivalent to a ~Mw 6.4 earthquake on the Hellenic plate-interface. This SSE, which is the first to be reported in the HSS, was associated with mild Coulomb failure stress changes (≤3 kPa) that were nevertheless sufficient to destabilize faults in the overriding plate. Tectonic instability was evidenced by a prolonged (~4 years) period of suppressed b-values (<1), an associated increase in upper-plate seismicity rates on discrete thrust, normal and strike-slip faults, including an earthquake swarm in the epicentral area of the Mw 6.9 earthquake, and another episode of slow-slip immediately preceding the Zakynthos mainshock. We show that this second SSE in 2018 caused stress changes up to 25 kPa in the epicentral area immediately prior to the mainshock, affecting a highly overpressured and mechanically weak forearc, whose state of stress fluctuated between horizontal deviatoric compression and tension during the years preceding the Zakynthos Earthquake. We conclude that this configuration facilitated episodes of aseismic and seismic deformation that ultimately triggered the Zakynthos Earthquake and may characterise other subduction zones globally.

How to cite: Mouslopoulou, V., Saltogianni, V., Bocchini, G. M., Cesca, S., Bedford, J., Dielforder, A., Oncken, O., Gianniou, M., and Petersen, G.: Slow-slip events destabilize upper-plate and trigger large-magnitude earthquake at the western-end of the Hellenic Subduction System, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1692, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1692, 2022.

EGU22-1972 | Presentations | TS4.1

​Studying the active tectonic in the northern flank of the Bozqush Mountains, NW Iran 

Ali Nasiri and Mahtab Aflaki

The NW-striking North Tabriz Fault is one of the most important basement faults in the northwest of the Iranian ‎plateau. This fault defines the boundary between the two tectonic ‎blocks with different stress regimes in its northern and southern parts as characterized with NW-SE and NE-SW direction of maximum horizontal compression, respectively. In the southern ‎termination of the North Tabriz fault, part of deformation is concentrated along its EW-striking splay faults extending along northern and southern boundaries of the Bozqush Mountains. The occurrence of medium-magnitude earthquakes, as ‎well as morphotectonic evidence reveal that modern deformation is dominantly concentrated along ~EW-striking dextral/reverse dextral and NNE-striking sinistral faults in the southern flank of the Bozqush Mountains. It is still not known to what extent the deformation is also accomodated in the northern flank of the Bozqush Mountain. The approach of this research is to ‎answer the question by studying the state of stress along the northern border of the Bozqush Mountains by applying the inversion method on the fault slip data measured during the field studies, studying their related ‎morphotectonic evidence, and comparing the results with ‎the state of stress and the morphotectonic evidence reported throughout the southern flank of the Bozqush Mountains. Fault kinematic data were collected at 35 sites ‎along the northern boundary of the Bozqush Mountains. Evidence of the modern NW-SE stress regime is found at five sites measured within the Quaternary detrital deposits in the western part of the study area. At the other ‎sites, evidence of the older stress regime, with NE-SW direction of maximum horizontal ‎compression is obtained. Also, the systematic deflection of the stream channels, especially in the eastern part of the region, ‎indicates the sinistral displacement along the EW-striking faults, consistent with the old ‎stress regime in the region. Evidence of dextral deflection was observed along few EW-striking faults cutting the Quaternary deposits only in the western parts of the region. Therefore, ‎by comparing these kinematic data and morphotectonic evidences with those reported from the southern flank of the Bozqush Mountains, it can be concluded that the modern deformation is dominantly absorbed along the splay faults in the southern flank of the Bozqush.‎

 

​Key Words: North Tabriz fault, Modern stress state, NW Iran, Northern flank of Bozqush Mountains, Stress inversion

How to cite: Nasiri, A. and Aflaki, M.: ​Studying the active tectonic in the northern flank of the Bozqush Mountains, NW Iran, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1972, 2022.

EGU22-2092 | Presentations | TS4.1

Rapid large-amplitude vertical motions generated by 3D subduction slab roll-back in the Valencia Trough, Western Mediterranean 

Penggao Fang, Julie Tugend, Geoffroy Mohn, Nick Kusznir, and WeiWei Ding

        The Cenozoic geodynamic evolution of the Western Mediterranean is complex comprising subduction, slab roll-back, back-arc extension, collision, and lithosphere delamination. We investigate the subsidence of a regionally observed unconformity in the Valencia Trough of the Western Mediterranean, here referred to as the Miocene Unconformity, which separates Mesozoic from latest Palaeogene to Neogene sediments. The mechanisms controlling its subsidence are poorly understood.

        We show, using a dense grid of seismic reflection data, well data and 3D flexural backstripping, that the Miocene Unconformity in the SW Valencia Trough subsided by more than 1.5 km to the present day at an average rate of 90 m/Myr. The absence of Cenozoic extensional faults affecting the basement shown by seismic data indicates that this rapid subsidence is not caused by Cenozoic rifting or remaining Mesozoic post-rift thermal subsidence. Neither can this subsidence be explained by subduction dynamic subsidence or flexural loading related to the thin-skin Betic fold and thrust belt which only affects subsidence observed near the deformation front.

        We interpret the 1.5 km subsidence of the Miocene Unconformity as the collapse of a back-arc transient uplift event. Erosion during this uplift, resulting in the formation of the Miocene Unconformity, is estimated to exceed 4 km. Transient uplift was likely caused by heating of back-arc lithosphere and asthenosphere, combined with mantle dynamic uplift, both caused by segmentation of Tethyan subduction resulting in slab tear. Subsidence resulted from thermal equilibration and the removal of mantle flow dynamic support Tethyan subduction slab roll-back. We propose that our observations and interpretation of rapid back-arc km-scale uplift and collapse have global applicability for other back-arc regions experiencing subduction segmentation and slab tear during subduction slab roll-back.

How to cite: Fang, P., Tugend, J., Mohn, G., Kusznir, N., and Ding, W.: Rapid large-amplitude vertical motions generated by 3D subduction slab roll-back in the Valencia Trough, Western Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2092, 2022.

EGU22-2986 | Presentations | TS4.1

This Rift is on Fire: Volcano-Tectonic Evolution of the Christiana-Santorini-Kolumbo volcanic field, Aegean Sea 

Jonas Preine, Christian Hübscher, Jens Karstens, Emilie Hooft, and Paraskevi Nomikou

Many of the most hazardous volcanoes lie in rift systems, where tectonics often seems to exert control on magma emplacement. However, our current knowledge of the interplay between volcanism and tectonics is immature due to the lack of observations on geological time scales. Located in the southern Aegean Sea, the Christiana-Santorini-Kolumbo (CSK) volcanic field lies in a prominent continental rift zone caused by back-arc extension along the Hellenic Arc. Covered by numerous geophysical surveys, this area offers the unique possibility to reconstruct a volcanic rift in time and space. Previous studies have revealed that the CSK volcanic field developed during four distinct volcanic phases, which initiated in the Pliocene and only recently matured to form the vast Santorini edifice. Here, we combine P-wave velocity tomography models and high-resolution reflection seismic data to reveal the internal architecture and the spatio-temporal evolution of the rift basins as well as their relation to the evolution of the CSK volcanoes. Our joint analysis reveals a distinct NE-SW-directed horst-structure separating the volcanic rift into a volcanically active northwestern zone and a volcanically inactive southeastern zone. Using a refined seismo-stratigraphic framework of the internal architecture of the rift basins, we identify four distinct phases of the rift system that correspond to the volcanic phases of the CSK field. These phases reflect the gradual development of a Pliocene-Pleistocene NE-SW oriented fault system overprinting an older Miocene-Pliocene ESE-WNW oriented fault system. The latest volcanic phase, during which volcanism focussed on Santorini and became highly explosive, corresponds to a distinct shift in the tectonic behavior of the rift system after which enhanced subsidence at the Santorini-Anafi and Amorgos faults occurred that was rapidly filled up by thick volcano-sedimentary deposits. We conclude that the volcanism of the CSK field is fundamentally controlled by NE-SW-directed rifting, which lies parallel to the Pliny and Strabo trends of the southeastern Hellenic Arc. This volcanic system is bounded to the southeast by the Akrotiri-Anhydros horst, which seems to be a deep-rooted structural boundary for the volcanic plumbing system. The shift from ESE-WNW directed faulting to NE-SW directed faulting is an indication that the dominant direction of slab-rollback driving the extension of the CSK rift shifted from the southwestern to the southeastern Hellenic Arc with Santorini lying at the hinge of these trends.

How to cite: Preine, J., Hübscher, C., Karstens, J., Hooft, E., and Nomikou, P.: This Rift is on Fire: Volcano-Tectonic Evolution of the Christiana-Santorini-Kolumbo volcanic field, Aegean Sea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2986, 2022.

Crustal deformation and seismic activity in the Levant is mainly related to the interplate Dead Sea Fault (DSF) and the intraplate Carmel-Gilboa Fault System (CGFS). In this study we analyze the interseismic deformation along these fault systems using 23 years of GPS measurements obtained from 209 campaign and 60 continuous stations. This GPS dataset is the longest record and the densest dataset for the DSF and the Levant region. We use this dataset to investigate the spatial variations of slip and creep rates along the southern and central sections of the DSF and the CGFS. Our inversion model results indicate that part of the tectonic motion is transferred from the DSF to the CGFS. We find that the left-lateral strike-slip motion along the DSF decreases in a rate of 0.9±0.4 mm/yr, from 4.8±0.3 mm/yr south to the intersection with the CGFS, to 3.9±0.4 mm/yr north to this intersection. Along the CGFS the left-lateral strike-slip motion ranges between ~0.3-0.5 mm/yr and the extension rate between ~0.6-0.7 mm/yr, indicating a total slip rate vector of 0.8±0.4 mm/yr in the DSF direction, in agreement with the reduction of slip rate along the DSF near the intersection with the CGFS. Shallow creep is found along the southern and central sections of the Dead Sea basin and the northern Jordan Valley section of the DSF, with creep rates of 3.4±0.4 and 2.3±0.4 mm/yr, respectively. These creeping sections were identified as areas with thick salt layers at the shallow subsurface. We suggest that shallow creep behavior along the DSF is govern by the presence and mechanical properties of the salt layers, which probably allows plastic deformation and the transition to velocity strengthening at the shallow subsurface and promotes creep.

How to cite: Hamiel, Y. and Piatibratova, O.: Spatial variations of slip and creep rates along the Dead Sea Fault and the Carmel-Gilboa Fault System, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3591, 2022.

EGU22-3939 | Presentations | TS4.1

Timing of rock-uplift and of the North Anatolian Fault development in the Central Pontides 

Simone Racano, Taylor Schildgen, and Paolo Ballato

The Central Pontide orogenic belt marks the northern margin of the Central Anatolian Plateau and is the result of several geodynamic processes, including the subduction of the Neo-Tethys crust, the opening of the Black Sea, the continental collision between the southern Eurasian margin and the Anatolide-Tauride block, and the development of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). Transpressional deformation and crustal thickening along the North Anatolian fault zone are thought to have generated rock-uplift rates of 0.2 – 0.3 km/Myr since ca. 400 ka within the Central Pontides based on Quaternary marine and river terraces. Moreover, data from low-temperature thermochronology suggest that an enhanced exhumation phase in the Central Pontides occurred within the last 11 Mya. However, the precise onset of this faster uplift phase, which likely reflects the timing of the development of the NAF in the Central Pontides, is poorly constrained.

In this work we define the spatiotemporal pattern of rock-uplift rates within the Central Pontides over the last ca. 10 Myr by performing linear inversions of river profiles that drain the northern, external margin of the Central Pontides. We analyze 19 different catchments that drain from the Sinop Range to the Black Sea, first applying a non-dimensional inversion on the chi-plots of the selected stream channels. We then use 21 new basin-averaged denudation rates derived from 10Be concentrations in river sands to calibrate an erodibility parameter, which we use in turn to scale our chi-transformed river profiles. Our results document an increase in rock-uplift rates after 8 Ma, with peak uplift rates of around 0.15 – 0.25 km/Myr occurring between 4 and 2 Ma. Moreover, the spatiotemporal pattern of uplift suggests that faster rock uplift started first in the eastern part of the Sinop Range and migrated westward over a period of ca. 2 to 2.5 Myr. Overall, these results provide important new constraints on the timing of topographic development in the Central Pontides and the westward migration of the NAF from eastern Turkey.

How to cite: Racano, S., Schildgen, T., and Ballato, P.: Timing of rock-uplift and of the North Anatolian Fault development in the Central Pontides, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3939, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3939, 2022.

The origin and tectonic evolution of the Western Mediterranean region, specifically the Gibraltar Arc system, is the result of a complex geodynamic evolution involving the convergence of the Eurasia and Africa plates and the dynamic impact of the Gibraltar slab observed in tomographic studies. Although geologic and geophysical data collected in the last few years have greatly increased our knowledge of the Gibraltar Arc region, it is still unclear the mechanical links between the Gibraltar slab and the past deformation of the overriding Alboran lithosphere as well as present-day motion shown in detailed GPS observations. In this work, we use the code ASPECT to model the geodynamic evolution of the Alboran slab in 2D over the last 20 million years. The initial model setup simulates a vertical WE section at a latitude of about 36oN and represents the situation at 20 Ma, when the trench had already fully rotated to the southwest and the predominantly westward rollback of the Gibraltar slab started taking place. We conduct a parametric study varying the rheological parameters and the initial slab properties (dip angle and length) to properly fit the robust current slab features, particularly, its position and its curved morphology extending eastward. We show how after 20 Myr of model evolution, i.e. at present time, the slab pull appears to have a still significant influence on surface velocities. We find a westward surface motion in the Gibraltar arc caused by the negative buoyancy of the slab. These velocities increase westwards from 1 to 4 mm/yr consistently with geodetic observations. Our models roughly reproduce the Alboran basin evolution, initially developing the West Alboran Basin and then the East Alboran Basin. Finally, preliminary 3D models further support these results and properly the main trends of the coupled dynamics of the Gibraltar slab and Alboran basin evolution during the last 20 Myr.

How to cite: Gea, P. J., Negredo, A., and Mancilla, F. D. L.: The Gibraltar slab dynamics and its influence on past and present-day Alboran domain deformation: Insights from thermo-mechanical numerical modelling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4234, 2022.

EGU22-5227 | Presentations | TS4.1

Present strain partitioning in SE Spain. Insights from CGNSS data 

Ivan Martin-Rojas, Alberto Sánchez-Alzola, Ivan Medina-Cascales, María Jesús Borque, Pedro Alfaro, and Antonio Gil

SE Iberia Tectonics is presently dominated by the NNW-SSE convergence between the Eurasian and Nubian plates. Farther east, the eastern Spanish coast and the Valencia Trough are dominated by ENE-WSW extension related to thermal subsidence. This extension has been interpreted as the final stage of abort rift responsible for the ENE motion of the Balearic promontory. Our data from 11 CGNSS stations permit us to discuss the deformation partitioning in SE Iberia related to the two abovementioned processes.

We identify three kinematic domains: a relatively stable domain, a domain moving towards NNW and undergoing NNW-SSE shortening, and a third domain relatively moving towards ENE and experiencing ENE-WSW extension. Our results indicate that plate convergence-related NNW-SSE shortening is mainly absorbed by the Eastern Betic Shear Zone (EBSZ), in agreement with previous studies, but also show that a significant fraction of this shortening is accommodated south of the EBSZ.

We also identify and quantify for the first time ENE-WSW extension northeast of the EBSZ. We propose that this extension could be absorbed by basement normal faults whose surface expression is obscured due to decoupling of deformation between the basement and the cover. Our results shed light on the tectonic puzzle of SE Spain.

How to cite: Martin-Rojas, I., Sánchez-Alzola, A., Medina-Cascales, I., Borque, M. J., Alfaro, P., and Gil, A.: Present strain partitioning in SE Spain. Insights from CGNSS data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5227, 2022.

EGU22-5335 | Presentations | TS4.1

Delayed lithosphere tearing along STEP Faults 

Taco Broerse, Rob Govers, and Ernst Willingshofer

Tearing of the lithosphere at the lateral end of a subduction zone is a consequence of ongoing subduction. The location of active lithospheric tearing is known as a Subduction-Transform-Edge-Propagator (STEP). The transcurrent plate boundary system lengthens with time and is referred to as the STEP Fault. Lithospheric tearing was taken to start at the trench in the classical STEP model of Govers and Wortel (2005). They show that active STEPs and STEP Faults can be found alongside many subduction zones. However, recent seismicity studies show results near the active STEPs that are difficult to reconcile with the classical STEP model: there is significant and deep seismicity along the STEP Fault near to the west of Trinidad in the southeast Caribbean; a Wadati-Benioff zone perpendicular to the Pliny-Strabo trenches (the STEP Fault) in the eastern Mediterranean reaches 180 km depth; STEP Fault perpendicular earthquake slip vectors are observed along the northern termination of the South Sandwich trench. We seek to understand these discrepancies by studying the tearing process.  

We show results of new physical analog lab models that aim to elucidate what controls lithospheric tearing and the resulting geometry of the lithospheric STEP. We study the ductile tearing in the process of STEP evolution, which is dynamically driven by the buoyancy of the subducting slab. In our experiments, the lithosphere as well as asthenosphere are viscoelastic media in a free subduction setup. A stress-dependent rheology plays a major role in localization of strain in tearing processes of lithosphere such as slab break-off. 

We find that complete tearing of the lithosphere typically occurs later than in the classical model, at 100-150 km depth. The slab is consequently highly curved near the lateral end of the trench. However, not all STEPs show evidence for such delay, e.g., the north end of the Tonga trench. In our model experiments we therefore investigate the influence of age and integrated strength of the lithosphere and its contrasts across the passive margin, on the timing, depth, and the degree of localization of the tearing process. Furthermore, we relate the tearing at depth to deformation at the surface along and across the STEP fault and we discuss potential consequences for STEP evolution for a number of subduction zones worldwide. Delayed lithospheric tearing explains the observations qualitatively. 

How to cite: Broerse, T., Govers, R., and Willingshofer, E.: Delayed lithosphere tearing along STEP Faults, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5335, 2022.

EGU22-5475 | Presentations | TS4.1

Insights into the 3D lithospheric structure below the Sea of Marmara region from seismic tomography and forward gravity modeling 

Naiara Fernandez, Magdalena Scheck-Wenderoth, Judith Bott, Mauro Cacace, and Ershad Gholamrezaie

The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) extends for about 1500 km in the Eastern Mediterranean region, from eastern Anatolia to the northern Aegean. The NAFZ is characterized by strong and frequent seismic activity, increasing the seismic hazard in the region. In the Sea of Marmara area (NW Turkey), the North Anatolian Fault splits into three main branches. The northern branch of the fault, the Main Marmara Fault (MMF), has produced several major earthquakes (M7+) in the past, with a recurrence time of about 250 years. At present, there is a 150 km seismic gap along the MMF which has not ruptured since 1766. The observed fault segmentation, with creeping and locked segments, is indicative of along-strike variability in the fault strength along the seismic gap.

Previous modeling studies in the Sea of Marmara have revealed how crustal heterogeneities effectively affect the thermal and mechanical states of the lithosphere and can likely explain the observed fault segmentation in the area. Therefore, constraining the 3D structure of the deeper crust and upper mantle below the Sea of Marmara is crucial to better assess the mechanical stability of the fault and the possible seismic hazards in the area. In this study, we make use of seismic tomography models and forward gravity modelling to gain insights into the 3D lithospheric structure below the Sea of Marmara. Two tomographic models are used to compute a 3D density model of the area relying on two distinct approaches for the crust and the lithospheric mantle. The results showcase a heterogeneous and rather complex crustal density distribution in the study area[m1] . The 3D density distributions are used in a second step to forward model the gravity response. The results from this new tomography-constrained 3D gravity modelling are then compared to published gravity data and iteratively corrected to fit the overall gravity signals. The final 3D lithospheric-scale density model of the study area will be the basis for thermo-mechanical modeling experiments aimed at improving our current understanding of the present-day geomechanical state of the Sea of Marmara and the MMF and its implications for the seismic hazard of the region.

How to cite: Fernandez, N., Scheck-Wenderoth, M., Bott, J., Cacace, M., and Gholamrezaie, E.: Insights into the 3D lithospheric structure below the Sea of Marmara region from seismic tomography and forward gravity modeling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5475, 2022.

EGU22-5479 | Presentations | TS4.1

Kinematic and tectonic analysis of the Baza and Galera Fault (S Spain). Insights from GNSS data 

Frank García-Tortosa, Pedro Alfaro, Alberto Sánchez-Alzola, Ivan Martin-Rojas, Jesus Galindo-Zaldívar, Manuel Avilés, Angel Carlos López Garrido, Carlos Sanz de Galdeano, Patricia Ruano, Francisco Jose Martínez-Moreno, Antonio Pedrera, Maria Clara de Lacy, Maria Jesus Borque, Ivan Medina-Cascales, and Antonio Jose Gil

We here discuss the results of a local GNSS episodic network from the Baza sub-Basin (S Spain). This network including six sites, was established in 2008 and has been measured seven times since then. Our data permit us to present the first short-term slip rates for the two active faults in this area. The main active structure is the normal Baza Fault. We estimate slip rates for this fault ranging between 0.3±0.3 mm/yr and 1.3±0.4 mm/yr. For the strike-slip Galera Fault, we quantify the slip rate as 0.5±0.3 mm/yr. These values are higher than previously reported long-term slip rates. We postulate that the discrepancy for the Baza Fault between short-term and long-term slip rates could indicate that the fault is presently in a period with a displacement rate higher than the mean of the magnitude 6 seismic cycle. Moreover, the velocity vectors that we obtained also show the regional tectonic significance of the Baza Fault, as this structure accommodates one-third of the regional extension of the Central Betic Cordillera.

Our results also show that the Baza and Galera Faults are kinematically coherent and they divide the Baza sub-Basin into two tectonic blocks. This points to a likely physical link between the Baza and Galera Faults; hence, a potential complex rupture involving both faults should be considered in future seismic hazard assessment studies.

How to cite: García-Tortosa, F., Alfaro, P., Sánchez-Alzola, A., Martin-Rojas, I., Galindo-Zaldívar, J., Avilés, M., López Garrido, A. C., Sanz de Galdeano, C., Ruano, P., Martínez-Moreno, F. J., Pedrera, A., de Lacy, M. C., Borque, M. J., Medina-Cascales, I., and Gil, A. J.: Kinematic and tectonic analysis of the Baza and Galera Fault (S Spain). Insights from GNSS data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5479, 2022.

EGU22-5691 | Presentations | TS4.1

Reconstruction of tectonically driven Quaternary fluvial dynamics of the Western Kura Fold-Thrust Belt (Eastern Caucasus, Georgia) 

Lasha Sukhishvili, Giorgi Boichenko, Giorgi Merebashvili, Zurab Javakhishvili, Adam Forte, and Tea Godoladze

Since the Plio-Pleistocene, southward migration of shortening in the Eastern part of the Greater Caucasus (GC) into the Kura foreland basin has formed the Kura fold–thrust belt (KFTB) and Alazani piggyback basin between the GC and KFTB, modifying the drainage network within the southern foreland. The northern, eastern and south-eastern flanks of the Western KFTB (Gombori range) expose the predominantly alluvial Alazani series, while the central (highest) part of the range is covered by Tsivi suite. The base of the Alazani series is estimated to be 2.7-2.5 Ma and deposition spanned the Akchagyl and Apsheronian regional stages. The KFTB likely initiated during the Akchagyl-Apsheronian period, and thus the paleocurrents of the alluvial Alazani series sediments represent potential archives for tracking resulting drainage reorganization within the foreland. Previous measurements of paleocurrents from the Alazani series revealed a reversal from south to north flow directions, but the measurements were limited to the northern flank of the Gombori range. Here we present new observations from the central and southern flanks of the Gombori. Results from the eastern and southeastern regions are consistent with the currents from the northern flank, but paleocurrents from the Tsivi suite are more complex and raises additional questions regarding its depositional context and age. The new results help to build a more complete picture of fluvial dynamics driven by Quaternary tectonic deformations within the GC foreland.

How to cite: Sukhishvili, L., Boichenko, G., Merebashvili, G., Javakhishvili, Z., Forte, A., and Godoladze, T.: Reconstruction of tectonically driven Quaternary fluvial dynamics of the Western Kura Fold-Thrust Belt (Eastern Caucasus, Georgia), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5691, 2022.

EGU22-6407 | Presentations | TS4.1

Morphological and paleoseismic evidence of surface faulting in the coastal Zagros, southwestern Iran 

Aram Fathian, Hamid Nazari, Mohammad Ali Shokri, Morteza Talebian, Manouchehr Ghorashi, and Klaus Reicherter

The Zagros Mountains accommodate intense seismicity due to the ongoing deformation; however, surface faulting has been rarely observed and/or documented. The earthquakes of Furg (November 6th, 1990) and Qir-Karzin (April 10th, 1972) are unique events in the Zagros associated with a surface rupture. We use tectonic geomorphology and paleoseismology to document a previously unknown outcropped fault within the Zagros. This ~ 20 km fault zone lies between the Khormuj and Khaki anticlines, where the Simply Folded Belt (SFB) of the Zagros is physiographically known as the coastal Zagros as well. The Khormuj anticline, located in the northeast of the city of Khormuj, was previously linked to the Main Front Fault (MFF) on the southern limb of the anticline. Further to the south, the oblique-slip Khormuj fault zone with a strike of N120°–N125° cut the Quaternary sediments and displaced the streams and ridges laterally and vertically. Opposite to the dip of the MFF, the Khormuj fault dip is inclined to the southwest—approximately 75°—where the southern block is uplifted and marks an obvious trace on the ground. We carried out a kinematic GPS survey along the deflected ridges to measure the horizontal and vertical components. Our observations indicate significant dextral strike-slip displacements compared to the dip-slip offset. We observed a sequence of fluvial risers in three different levels along the Khormuj fault. We additionally studied a paleoseismological trench perpendicular to the Khormuj fault scarp evidencing at least two paleoearthquakes. The OSL age of the bottom of the colluvium wedge correlated with the older event indicates the latest event is younger than 25±8 ka considering the fault cuts these deposits up to the ground surface.

How to cite: Fathian, A., Nazari, H., Shokri, M. A., Talebian, M., Ghorashi, M., and Reicherter, K.: Morphological and paleoseismic evidence of surface faulting in the coastal Zagros, southwestern Iran, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6407, 2022.

EGU22-7451 | Presentations | TS4.1

A revision of the main active fault systems of the Alboran Basin: their significance in plate tectonics and a first appraisal of its seismogenic and tsunamigenic potential. 

Laura Gómez de la Peña, César R. Ranero, Guillermo Booth-Rea, José Miguel Azañón, Eulàlia Gràcia, Francesco Maesano, Roberto Basili, and Fabrizio Romano

The Alboran Basin is located in the westernmost Mediterranean Sea. This basin was formed during the Miocene, and since the late Miocene, has been deformed due to the Iberia – Africa tectonic plates convergence, producing the contractive reorganization of some structures at the basin. Thus, the Alboran Basin is a seismically active area, which hosts the plate boundary between the European and African tectonic plates. This plate boundary has been traditionally considered a wide deformation zone, in which several small faults are accommodating the deformation.

Based on a modern set of active seismic data, we were able for the first time to quantify the total slip accommodated by the most prominent tectonic structures of the area, late Miocene - early Pliocene in age. Our results show that the estimated total slip accommodated by the main fault systems may be similar (with error bounds) to the estimated plate convergence value since the Messinian time (~24 km). Thus, slip on that faults may have accommodated most of the Iberian – African plate convergence during the Plio-Quaternary, revealing that the contractive reorganization of the Alboran basin is focused on a few first-order structures that act as lithospheric boundaries, rather than widespread and diffuse along the entire basin.

These results have implications not only for kinematic and geodynamic models, but also for seismic and tsunami hazard assessments. Using the most complete dataset until the date, we performed a revision of the geometry and characteristics of the main fault systems offshore. Based on this data, we perform a first appraisal of the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potential of the main fault systems offshore. Our simulations show that the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potential of the offshore structures of the Alboran Basin may be underestimated, and a further characterization of their associated hazard is needed.

How to cite: Gómez de la Peña, L., R. Ranero, C., Booth-Rea, G., Azañón, J. M., Gràcia, E., Maesano, F., Basili, R., and Romano, F.: A revision of the main active fault systems of the Alboran Basin: their significance in plate tectonics and a first appraisal of its seismogenic and tsunamigenic potential., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7451, 2022.

EGU22-7780 | Presentations | TS4.1

The vertical movement of Karpathos: Competing hypotheses  

Violeta veliz borel, Onno Oncken, Vasiliki Mouslopoulou, John Begg, and Johannes Glodny

Karpathos is a roughly north-south oriented island that emerges between Crete and Rhodes in the forearc of the eastern Hellenic subduction system. It extends for ~60 km to the north of the 40 km contour of the plate interface depth. Further, the northern part of the island is confined to a N-S trending Horst bounded by two large normal faults that shape the seafloor off both, the eastern and western shore.  Furthermore, many normal faults, mainly in the north, strike parallel to the Horst and shape the topography onshore. Given the location and the structural configuration of the island, we expect that multiple processes are reflected in both the sedimentary and morphological record of vertical movement. Marine terraces and paleo-cliffs are observed all around the island recording its vertical movements over the last ~1 Ma. Moreover, sedimentary basins in the southern and central parts of the island are excellent archives of long-term uplift interrupted by subsidence over the last ~4.5 Ma. Twenty-five samples were collected at elevations between 1 and ~310 masl. We have gathered six (n=6) age/elevation data-points obtained by Sr-isotope dating, and nineteen (n=19) age/elevation data-points by radiocarbon dating. We explored the likelihood of different hypotheses on what drives the uplift:  whether it is driven by upper-crust normal faults, megathrust earthquakes, underplating, or a combination of these phenomena. We present preliminary results on both the temporal and spatial fluctuations of the vertical movement of Karpathos.

How to cite: veliz borel, V., Oncken, O., Mouslopoulou, V., Begg, J., and Glodny, J.: The vertical movement of Karpathos: Competing hypotheses , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7780, 2022.

EGU22-7890 | Presentations | TS4.1

Knickpoints and faulted alluvial fans: evidence of orogen parallel active extension related to delamination in the Western Betics 

Marcos Moreno-Sanchez, Daniel Ballesteros, Guillermo Booth-Rea, José Vicente Pérez-Peña, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Cristina Reyes-Carmona, José Miguel Azañón, Jorge P. Galve, and Patricia Ruano

We present the first results of the MORPHOMED project, in order to deepen the chronology, uplifting rate, and tectonic forcing of different sectors of the Betic Cordillera since the Pliocene. Our initial morphotectonic analysis in the Western Betics, at the active termination of the Betic dextral STEP fault, highlights the location of active orogen-parallel normal faults cutting Pliocene marine sediments, uplifted above 600 masl, and Quaternary alluvial fans. The morphometric study we carried out includes normalized river steepness (ksn) and other geomorphic indices calculated in GIS using our own code designed in python. The fieldwork developed comprises the identification of uplifted Pliocene marine deposits, faulted alluvial fans and remnants of uplifted planation surfaces. The alluvial fans are related to travertine deposits older than 350 ka, which would be associated with hot springs. Geochronological studies involve previous and new U-Th dating on travertines and speleothems from caves in the high areas. The preliminary morphometric analyses reveal the occurrence of knickpoints that coincide with normal faults affecting marine Pliocene deposits and alluvial fans. These fans show vertical displacement of more than 20 m and their age remains unknown albeit the associated travertines are being dated. These results support previous works concerning of active tectonics in the Central and Western Betic Cordillera and they will serve to define new active faults, driving tectonic uplift of the Western Betics, which are the key to understand the landscape evolution forced probably by deep mantle rooted tectonics like slab tearing and edge delamination.

How to cite: Moreno-Sanchez, M., Ballesteros, D., Booth-Rea, G., Pérez-Peña, J. V., Pérez-Mejías, C., Reyes-Carmona, C., Azañón, J. M., Galve, J. P., and Ruano, P.: Knickpoints and faulted alluvial fans: evidence of orogen parallel active extension related to delamination in the Western Betics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7890, 2022.

The occurrence of earthquake-repeaters, i.e. co-located seismic events of comparable magnitude with highly similar waveforms breaking the same fault patch with an almost identical mechanism, is generally regarded as an indication that the fault surrounding the earthquake asperity is (aseismically) creeping. Earthquake repeaters can either occur during transient loading, e.g. within the afterslip of large earthquakes, or during the constant tectonic loading of tectonic faults. In this study we consider the latter.

The Main Marmara Fault (MMF) belongs to the western part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) between the Anatolian and Eurasian plates and runs close to the population centre of Istanbul below the Marmara Sea. While the main NAFZ branches to the east and west of the MMF ruptured in M>7 earthquakes in the last century, the MMF itself is regarded as a seismic gap with the potential to host an M>7 event in the near future. Knowledge about the amount of aseismic creep of the off-shore MMF strand is important for a better seismic hazard assessment for the city of Istanbul and is heavily debated.

Building on earlier studies that identified repeating earthquakes in the western part of the MMF, we investigate a newly compiled seismicity catalogue of the Sea of Marmara for repeating events along the complete MMF. The catalogue spans the time period 2006-2020, comprises almost 14,000 events in the magnitude range M0.3-M5.7 and was compiled from regional permanent stations operated by AFAD and KOERI. Phase onset times were automatically picked with a two-step procedure using higher-order statistics and an AIC-representation of the waveforms for crude and fine-tuned estimation of the P- and S-onsets. The resulting onset-times were used in the Oct-tree location algorithm of the probabilistic NLLoc software using a regional velocity model and station corrections to obtain the final hypocentres.

To search for earthquake repeaters, we divide the MMF into overlapping segments and perform a station-wise cross-correlation analysis for all available event waveforms in each segment. Correlated waveforms start 1 s before the P-wave arrival and include the complete waveform including the S-wave coda. Waveforms were bandpass filtered between 2 and 20Hz to retain a rather wide frequency spectrum. We apply strict selection criteria and identify repeating events only as those with a normalized cross-correlation coefficient larger than 0.9 at at least 3 stations and a temporal separation of more than 30 days to exclude bursts of highly similar events in aftershock sequences or earthquake swarms.

The highest density of repeating earthquakes is found below the western Marmara Sea (Central Basin and Western High) with a systematic decrease of repeaters towards the east (Kumburgaz Basin) and none at all in the presumably locked Princess Islands section of the MMF immediately south of Istanbul. These results for the first time provide a consistent image of the amount of creep along the entire overdue Marmara section of the NAFZ derived from permanent onshore stations refining earlier results obtained from individual spots using local seafloor deployments.

How to cite: Becker, D., Martínez-Garzón, P., Wollin, C., and Bohnhoff, M.: Systematic variations of fault creep along the Marmara seismic gap, north-western Turkey, based on the observation of earthquake repeaters obtained from a high-resolution regional earthquake catalogue, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8142, 2022.

EGU22-8675 | Presentations | TS4.1

Subduction hints from the northeastern Mediterranean Sea 

Nicolò Bertone, Lorenzo Bonini, Eugenia Colin, Anna Del Ben, Giuseppe Brancatelli, Angelo Camerlenghi, Edy Forlin, and Gian Andrea Pini

The eastern Mediterranean is shaped by the interaction between the African, Arabian, and Eurasian plates resulting in a complex tectonic framework. The Hellenic subduction is well documented and studied but, the northeast corner of the eastern Mediterranean Sea remains enigmatic. It is a tectonically active region where different plate boundary conditions coexist (i.e., oceanic subduction, continental collision, extension, and strike-slip movements). An active and tsunamigenic system has been interpreted west and east of Cyprus by using deep seismic reflection lines. Vintage deep-penetrating seismic reflection profiles of the Mediterranean Sea project (MS project) - acquired during the ’70 - were re-analyzed and merged with a synthesis of available subsurface data from the scientific literature. This study focuses on two transects (MS53 and MS56) that cross the major offshore structures (i.e., Florence Rise, Latakia Ridge, and Kyrenia Ridge) from north to south. The western transect (MS53) shows the Herodotus oceanic crust subducting northward beneath the Eurasian plate. The Florence Rise is the leading edge of the system, and the Antalya Basin is its forearc basin. Close to the Turkish coast, a buried block seems to act as a backstop for the offshore system, and north of it, some out-of-sequence thrusts have been interpreted. The strain is partitioned between the Florence Rise and the Taurides front. The eastern transect (MS56) crosses the Latakia Ridge, i.e., the northern boundary of the Levant Basin, where shortening is greater than in the western area. The seismic line continues northward into the Cyprus – Latakia Basin, crossing the Kyrenia Ridge, and reaching the Turkish coast. On the seismic section, we interpreted the Mesozoic subduction front now hindered by strike-slip movements on the Latakia Ridge. Another prominent transpressive structure is the Kyrenia Ridge, which is interpreted as an active structure with a well-imaged thrust system in front of it. The seismic sections were depth converted to provide a regional geologic model for the northeastern Mediterranean Sea. Active subduction fronts, which are only partially imaged, were structurally modeled and then crosschecked with previous studies to better constrain their geometry. In the northeastern Mediterranean Sea, a plate boundary is buried offshore with active subduction west of Cyprus and mainly transpressional tectonics to the east. A better understanding of its nature and kinematics would be useful to assess the tsunami hazard in this area.

How to cite: Bertone, N., Bonini, L., Colin, E., Del Ben, A., Brancatelli, G., Camerlenghi, A., Forlin, E., and Pini, G. A.: Subduction hints from the northeastern Mediterranean Sea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8675, 2022.

EGU22-9537 | Presentations | TS4.1

New constraints on the kinematics of the western Sinai Microplate: geodynamic implications 

Roi Granot, Oded Katz, Mor Kanari, Orit Hyams, and Yariv Hamiel

The tectonic nature of the Sinai Microplate's western boundary is clouded with uncertainties. Early studies suggested that the western edge of Sinai is fully connected to the African Plate, thus concluding that Sinai is a sub-plate. Later, bathymetric analyses of prominent lineated faults straddling across the western edge of the Levant Basin have suggested that, in fact, this area is a plate boundary that accommodates dextral motion between the African Plate and the Sinai Microplate. However, this inference contradicts geological and geophysical observations across the Gulf of Suez, the southern continuation of the same plate boundary. Here we present preliminary results from a recent geophysical cruise aboard the R/V Bat Galim. We focused our investigation on one of the major faults, oriented in an NW-SE direction (located ~80 km southwest of the Eratosthenes Seamount), creating the plate boundary. We collected high-resolution shallow multichannel seismic reflection data complemented with multibeam bathymetry data. We also acquired two piston cores near the trace of the fault. These observations unravel the shallow three-dimensional structure of the fault system whereby several curved and steeply dipping normal fault segments are splayed from the main fault trace in a westerly direction. These secondary faults display a back-tilted and step-like morphology. This structure is best explained by a sinistral motion acting along the master fault. Independently, we present an updated Africa-Sinai Euler pole based on the motion of GPS stations recorded between 1996 and 2019. The results suggest that Sinai is moving in a northwesterly direction with respect to Africa (1.7-1.9±0.9 mm/yr). Focal mechanism solutions calculated for recent earthquakes occurring in this region (Mw>4.5) agree with the geodetic constraints of a sinistral relative motion.

Overall, these observations suggest that the western boundary of Sinai has been, and still is, accommodated sinistral motion relative to Africa. This conclusion implies that the Sinai Microplate is moving faster with respect to Eurasia relative to the motion of Africa with respect to Eurasia. This, in turn, seems to be in conflict with the notion that subduction of the oceanic lithosphere north of the Sinai Microplate (i.e., east of Cyprus) has recently ceased. We speculate that the downgoing slab might still promote the relatively fast northward motion of Sinai and/or a northward drag force induced by large-scale mantle flow related to the Afar plume could also contribute to the motion of the Sinai Microplate.

How to cite: Granot, R., Katz, O., Kanari, M., Hyams, O., and Hamiel, Y.: New constraints on the kinematics of the western Sinai Microplate: geodynamic implications, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9537, 2022.

EGU22-9541 | Presentations | TS4.1

Slow slip events captured by GNSS  along the Central Section of the North Anatolian Fault 

Jorge Jara, Alpay Ozdemir, Ugur Dogan, Romain Jolivet, Ziyadin Çakir, and Semih Ergintav

Recent observations suggest that seismogenic faults release elastic energy not only during sudden earthquakes but also aseismically. Slow slip can be persistent, lasting for years, or episodic. Aseismic slip is thought to be influenced by the presence/migration of fluids, stress interactions through fault geometrical complexities, or fault material heterogeneities. However, slow slip events have mostly been captured by regional GNSS networks in subduction zones, and the finest details of the nucleation, propagation, and arrest of such events have not been observed yet. Therefore, continental creeping faults are ideal targets for tackling such observational gaps and focusing on the sub-daily behavior of such slow slip events.

 

The central segment of the North Anatolian Fault is known to be creeping at least since the 1950s. This region was struck by the Mw 7.3 Bolu/Gerede earthquake in 1944, and since then, no earthquake of magnitude greater than 6 has been recorded. During the 1960s, aseismic slip was discovered as a wall built across the fault in 1957 was being slowly offset. Geodetic studies (InSAR, GNSS, and creepmeters) focused on capturing and analyzing aseismic slip around the village of Ismetpasa. Creepmeter measurements during the 1980s and 2010s, along with InSAR time series analysis, suggest that aseismic slip occurs episodically rather than persistently. However, no permanent GNSS stations were available close enough to the fault to study the details of such slow slip events.

 

Within the scope of a French-Turkish collaboration, we installed 17 GNSS stations (ISMENET) in 2019 to survey the spatio-temporal evolution of aseismic slip rate and characterize the physical properties of the fault zone. A creepmeter array located in the Ismetpasa village reported the occurrence of a significant slow slip event between December 2019 - January 2020. We analyze the GNSS record to search for small aseismic slip episodes and describe their behavior. We use a combination of Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA) and Geodetic Template Matching (GTM) to extract the signature of aseismic slip and characterize its source. Results are compared to creepmeter measurements, as well as the historical earthquakes, fault geometrical complexities, and kinematic coupling. Our results confirm that aseismic slip in the region is not permanent. Therefore, even though the aseismic slip rate in the long-term seems to be constant, such a rate might result from the contribution of many aseismic slip episodes as the one detected in this work.

How to cite: Jara, J., Ozdemir, A., Dogan, U., Jolivet, R., Çakir, Z., and Ergintav, S.: Slow slip events captured by GNSS  along the Central Section of the North Anatolian Fault, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9541, 2022.

The Apennine Tyrrhenian margin records the evolutionary steps of the back-arc basin developed at the rear of a E-ward migrating fold-and-thrust belt. As well-documented in literature, the counterclockwise rotation of the Apennines is related to the southward increase of the roll back-related subduction of the Adria slab. This led first to the progressive incorporation of thrust sheets within the Apennine prism in the upper plate and later to its subsequent back-arc extension that is contemporaneous with the continuate inarching of the Apennine front towards the Adriatic and Ionian seas. Uncertainties arise on the structural style and timing in the internal Apennines between the orogenic and post-orogenic stages, that are respectively represented by thrust-sheet implacement, and crustal thinning.

We hereby propose a combined 2D seismic and field data review that allows identifying the geodynamic processes preceding the crustal stretching of the Apennine Tyrrhenian margin with new insights from on- and off-shore seismic lines. In particular, the construction of a new geotraverse across the margin, which is stretched over 100 km between the internal Central Apennines belts and the Pontian escarpment, allows to roughly estimate: i) the Late Miocene - Earliest Pliocene shortening with its change of the basal decollement depth through time; in particular, subsurface data highlighted stacked thrust sheets that were involved in an initial in-sequence propagation with top-to-the-ENE, synchronous to late Tortonian foredeep to wedge-top sedimentation. We also distinguish late backthrusts related to the formation of triangle zones that are more deeply rooted moving to the western chain interior. ii) The amount of crustal stretching and subsidence; Back arc-related orogenic collapse is preceded by initial orogen uplift and erosion in the internal sectors. iii) The onset of at least two magmatic cycles; in this frame, the lateral slab tearing and retreat is tracked by E-rejuvenated volcanic activity in the upper plate along the Volsci Volcanic Field and the Palmarola-Vesuvius lineaments. Those volcano-tectonic trends are favoured by a series of transtensive structures that progressively reflect the arc expansion in the rear. In this frame, the NE-dipping crustal detachment(s) may have played into crustal thinning during the Pliocene, driving and occasionally hampering magma emplacement, while high-angle faults have locally driven monogenetic eruptions. Finally, we report on field and seismic evidence of neo-tectonics, supporting ongoing extension occurring on the margin.

How to cite: Vico, G. and Cardello, G. L.: From thrusting to back-arc extension: seismic structure and field evidence of the Apennine Tyrrhenian margin (Central Italy), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9955, 2022.

EGU22-10062 | Presentations | TS4.1

A re-evaluation of the 5th October 1948 M7.3 Ashgabat earthquake (Turkmenistan) 

Neill Marshall, Richard Walker, Qi Ou, and Christoph Gruetzner

The 1948 M 7.3 Ashgabat earthquake, killing over 38,000 people, occurred in the dextral strike-slip Kopeh Dagh fault zone in the Iran-Turkmenistan border region. Previously, it has been debated which fault(s) it occurred on and whether this earthquake was a thrust/reverse, strike-slip, or multi-fault earthquake, as published focal mechanisms suggest it had a reverse mechanism. We relocated the hypocentre using historical seismograms and present a new strike-slip focal mechanism. We used Pleiades satellite stereo imagery to produce Digital Elevation Models of part of the ruptured area. These data reveal clear strike-slip faults where surface ruptures were mapped in 1948. The earthquake did not rupture the Main Kopeh Dagh fault, but instead these subsidiary faults, highlighting the importance of considering lesser faults in seismic hazard models.

How to cite: Marshall, N., Walker, R., Ou, Q., and Gruetzner, C.: A re-evaluation of the 5th October 1948 M7.3 Ashgabat earthquake (Turkmenistan), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10062, 2022.

EGU22-10145 | Presentations | TS4.1

Coseismic and Postseismic Deformation of the January 24, 2020 Sivrice (Elazig) Earthquake Under the Constrain of Geodetic Observations 

İlay Farımaz, Seda Özarpacı, Alpay Özdemir, M. Hilmi Erkoç, Efe Turan Ayruk, Semih Ergintav, Uğur Doğan, and Ziyadin Çakır

January 24, 2020 Sivrice earthquake (Mw 6.8), which is the largest along the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) over the last century, is providing a wealth of information on the mechanics of transform faulting and for monitoring the different phases of the last seismic cycle. In this study, we aim to estimate coseismic and postseismic surface deformation along the Sivrice earthquake rupture and determine the strain accumulations on Pütürge segment by combining InSAR and GNSS measurements. The area was described one of the major seismic gaps along the EAF and we have started to study from Palu to Sivrice segments of the EAF, since 2015. Near field survey GNSS network has been established since 2015 and measured two times in a year, until 2021. Besides, after the earthquake, we surveyed 60% of near field sites to contain the coseismic field within 2-3 days. This dataset analyzed with continuous GNSS stations around the region to control the far field of the deformation field. Additionally, this dataset is densified by InSAR deformation field. For this purpose, the stack of interferograms have been interpreted from descending orbit Sentinel-1 dataset, composed of 6 days interval SAR acquisitions that starts from January 2020 to June 2020 which covers the earthquake time. As a result, significant differences between the pattern of strain accumulation before and after earthquake are documented with both GNSS and InSAR data. Moreover, the signature of the postseismic deformations is presented for 6 months.  

This study was supported by TUBITAK 1001 project no. 114Y250 and 118Y435.

Keywords: Sivrice earthquake, EAF, coseismic, postseismic, InSAR, GNSS

How to cite: Farımaz, İ., Özarpacı, S., Özdemir, A., Erkoç, M. H., Ayruk, E. T., Ergintav, S., Doğan, U., and Çakır, Z.: Coseismic and Postseismic Deformation of the January 24, 2020 Sivrice (Elazig) Earthquake Under the Constrain of Geodetic Observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10145, 2022.

EGU22-10193 | Presentations | TS4.1

Determining Strain Accumulation Along NAF with Block Modelling 

Efe Turan Ayruk, Seda Özarpacı, Alpay Özdemir, Volkan Özbey, Semih Ergintav, and Uğur Doğan

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a one of the major dextral strike-slip faults of Turkey which forming the boundary between the Eurasian - Anatolian plates. From 1939 to 1999, significant earthquakes occurred as showing a westward migration. Several studies are being conducted due to this seismic activity along the NAF. However, none of these are sufficiently dense to understand the behaviour of the fault. Here we present our block modelling results obtained from combine that published GNSS velocity datasets to determine strain accumulation along the NAF with TDEFNODE software (McCaffrey,1995). Our study area separates to 3 blocks, starts from east of the Sapanca Lake and includes the Karliova Triple Junction on the east, extends over the Black Sea on the north and 130 kilometers from the fault on the south. Checkerboard method is used to test the resolution of the dataset, then node distribution on the NAF is optimized and Wang’s model is used for inversion solution (Wang,2003). Euler Pole and block strain are estimated with inversion solution for Eurasia/Anatolia plates and the slip deficit variations are estimated for NAF. Under the constrain of the dense GNSS networks, we displayed that some segments of NAF are creeping up to shallow part of the crust and some other segments are locked at deeper region. Herein to better understand latest circumstance of complex slip deficit pattern of the NAF, estimated by our model, we evaluated our results under the complementary present and paleo-seismological datasets.

Keywords: NAF, block modelling, GNSS

How to cite: Ayruk, E. T., Özarpacı, S., Özdemir, A., Özbey, V., Ergintav, S., and Doğan, U.: Determining Strain Accumulation Along NAF with Block Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10193, 2022.

EGU22-10619 | Presentations | TS4.1

Neogene to recent geodynamic evolution of Northern Tunisia foreland thrust belt. 

Seifeddine Gaidi, Fetheddine Melki, Guillermo Booth-Rea, Wissem Marzougui, Jose Vicente Pérez-Peña, Patricia Ruano, Jorge Pedro Galve, Haifa Chouaieb, Jose Miguel Azañón, and Fouad Zargouni

This work analyses the tectonic evolution of Northern Tunisia from the Late Miocene to Present. Two orthogonal extensional systems with ENE- and SE-directed transport produced the extensional collapse of the Tell and Atlas Foreland Thrust Belts (FTBs) in northern Tunisia during the Late Miocene to Pliocene in a context of NW-SE plate convergence between Africa and Eurasia. These systems produced the extensional denudation of the Tunisian Atlas and Tell foreland thrust belts, which we related to deep mantle tectonic mechanisms, known as a common feature in other FTB´s in the western Mediterranean, i.e. Betics, Rif, Calabria and Apennines. Low-angle normal faults have extended and reworked the Tunisian Tell external foreland thrust belt, exhuming midcrustal lower-greenschist metapelites and marbles with Triassic protholiths, and forming Late Miocene basins. This extension was followed by later Pliocene to Present tectonic inversion, developing the active shortening structures in Northern Tunisia. The main shortening structure is formed by different reverse and strike-slip fault segments, linked forming the 130 km long Alia-Thibar fault zone. Restored Plio-Quaternary deformation observed on reflection seismic lines indicates deformation rates around 0.6-0.8 mm/yr in the studied segments and larger amounts of shortening to the West of Northern Tunisia (16%) than to the East (7%), which suggests that tectonic inversion started earlier to the West and later propagated eastwards, reaching Northeastern Tunisia in the Late Pliocene. Due to the young age of this tectonic inversion, the present relief of Northern Tunisia is characteristic of a young thrust and fold belt, with dominating axial valleys along synforms and an incipient transverse drainage development propagating from West to East.

How to cite: Gaidi, S., Melki, F., Booth-Rea, G., Marzougui, W., Pérez-Peña, J. V., Ruano, P., Galve, J. P., Chouaieb, H., Azañón, J. M., and Zargouni, F.: Neogene to recent geodynamic evolution of Northern Tunisia foreland thrust belt., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10619, 2022.

EGU22-11846 | Presentations | TS4.1

Mantle origins of topography, volcanism and the North Anatolian Fault in Anatolia: constraints from seismic tomography, seismic anisotropy and crustal structure 

Ian Bastow, Thomas Merry, Rita Kounoudis, Christopher Ogden, Rebecca Bell, Saskia Goes, Jennifer Jenkins, Laurence Jones, Beth Grant, and Charles Braham

The eastern Mediterranean hosts, within the span of a few hundred kilometres, extensional, strike-slip, and collision tectonics above a set of fragmenting subducting slabs. Widespread Miocene-Recent volcanism and ~2km uplift has been attributed to mantle processes such as delamination, dripping and/or slab tearing/break-off. We investigate this complex region using a variety of broadband seismological techniques, with new P- and S-wave tomographic images in Kounoudis et al. (2020), seismic anisotropy constrained via an updated dataset of SKS shear-wave splitting observations in Merry et al. (2021), and crustal structure imaged by quality-controlled H-κ stacking of receiver functions in Ogden & Bastow (2021). Overall, seismic anisotropy and crustal structure are more spatially variable than previously recognised, and such variations correspond well with variations in mantle structure shown by the tomography. In general, Moho depth is poorly correlated with elevation, suggesting crustal thickness variations do not fully explain topographic differences, and residual topography calculations indicate the requirement for a mantle contribution to Anatolian Plateau uplift. Evidence for such a contribution exists in central Anatolia, where an imaged horizontal tear in the Cyprus slab spatially corresponds with volcanism, a residual topographic high, and a region of reduced splitting delay times and nulls, all consistent with upwelling of asthenospheric material through the tear. Anisotropic fast directions are consistent with flow through the imaged gap between the Cyprus and Aegean slabs, again correlating roughly with both volcanism and high residual topography. Slow uppermost‐mantle wave speeds below active volcanoes in eastern Anatolia, and ratios of P-to-S wave relative traveltimes, indicate a thin lithosphere and melt contributions. Elsewhere, there is more evidence for slab processes controlling mantle flow, with anisotropic fast directions diverted at the edges of imaged slabs and consistent with flow towards the retreating Hellenic trench in the Aegean. The North Anatolian Fault is revealed to be a deep, plate-scale structure: whilst there are no clear changes in Moho depth across the fault, deep velocity contrasts suggest a 40­-60km decrease in lithospheric thickness from the Precambrian lithosphere north of the fault to a thinned Anatolian lithosphere in the south. Moreover, short-length-scale variations in anisotropy and backazimuthal variations in splitting parameters at the fault indicate fault-related lithospheric deformation, with seismic fast directions either fault-parallel or intermediate between the principle extensional strain rate axis and fault strike, diagnostic of a relatively low-strained transcurrent mantle shear zone. Upper mantle structure thus exerts a strong influence on uplift, volcanism and deformation in Anatolia.

References

Kounoudis, R., I.D. Bastow, C.S. Ogden, S. Goes, J. Jenkins, et al.,  (2020), Seismic Tomographic Imaging of the Eastern Mediterranean Mantle..., G3, 21(7), doi:10.1029/2020GC009009.

Merry, T.A.J., I.D. Bastow, R. Kounoudis, C.S. Ogden, R.E. Bell, & L. Jones (2021), The influence of the North Anatolian Fault and a fragmenting slab architecture on upper mantle seismic anisotropy... ,G3, 22, doi:10.1029/2021GC009896.

Ogden, C.S., & I.D. Bastow (2021), The Crustal Structure of the Anatolian Plate from Receiver Functions..., GJI, doi:10.1093/gji/ggab513.

How to cite: Bastow, I., Merry, T., Kounoudis, R., Ogden, C., Bell, R., Goes, S., Jenkins, J., Jones, L., Grant, B., and Braham, C.: Mantle origins of topography, volcanism and the North Anatolian Fault in Anatolia: constraints from seismic tomography, seismic anisotropy and crustal structure, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11846, 2022.

EGU22-12611 | Presentations | TS4.1

New insights on the relationship between inherited structures of the opening of the Algero-Balearic basin and recent inversion of its southern margin 

Shaza Haidar, Pierre Leffondré, Jacques Déverchère, David Graindorge, Frauke Klingelhoefer, Mohamed Arab, Mourad Medaouri, and Marie-Odile Beslier

The Algero-Balearic Basin (ABB) is an Oligo-Miocene back-arc basin resulting from a polyphase tectonic evolution involving Tethyan subduction retreat and bilateral slab tear propagation. The ABB was fully opened by the Tortonian, while the Gibraltar and Calabria arcs formed by the narrowing of retreating slab fragments. Since then, the Algerian margin has undergone a tectonic inversion, potentially preceding an incipient subduction as shown by the analysis of the on-offshore deformation distribution. In this work, we aim to shed light on the relationships between the large-scale structures inherited from the ABB opening and the recent margin inversion. For this purpose, we rely on two recent analyses, one addressing the ABB opening (Haidar et al., 2021) and the other mapping the inversion-related structures off-Algeria (Leffondré et al., 2021), both being constrained by a set of deep penetration multi-resolution seismic profiles cross-correlated with magnetic, gravimetric and bathymetric data. 

The deep ABB has been subdivided into 4 zones with relatively distinct geodynamic evolutions, as demonstrated by variations in pre-Messinian sedimentary infill thickness and basement depth : (1) the oldest, fan-shaped oceanic basin to the east (off-Jijel), formed during the Langhian-Serravallian after collision of the Kabylian blocks with the stretched African margin; (2) the shallower and younger Hannibal thinned continental domain (HD), intruded by intense post-collisional magmatic activity during the Upper Serravallian - Lower Tortonian; and ever-younger to the west, (3) the central-western (off-Algiers-Tipaza) and (4) westernmost zones, formed from the Tortonian to the Lower Messinian in response to the westward retreat of the Gibraltar slab and the concomitant migration of the Alboran block by propagation of vertical tears along a STEP (Subduction Transform Edge Propagator) type margins.

The tectonic inversion is characterised by long-wavelength of flexure (>100km) of the ABB towards the Algerian margin and/or buckling of shorter wavelengths (≈30km). The central (HD) and central-eastern (off-Jijel) zones are dominated by flexure, whereas buckling is dominant in the central-western zone. Further, the easternmost (off-Annaba) and westernmost zones exhibit a combination of flexure and buckling. Except in the westernmost zone, characterized by low deformation on a single fault, the margin toe consistently displays inversion-related faults systems consisting of 3 to 4 south-dipping and sub-parallel thrust faults.

By comparing the zonation of the deep ABB and the zones with different responses to inversion, we evidence a similar zonation of the margin, with only slight differences likely resulting from data density variations. To the east, the old and wide fan-shaped basin has favored the development of a significant flexural response, whereas the young westernmost zones, narrower and bordered by STEP-faults, evidence a combination of buckling and short-wavelength of flexure. The HD is a complex zone with a shorter wavelength of flexure compared to the eastern zone, probably related to magmatic activities affecting the potentially continental crust. Our results suggest that if initial zonation persists, several parameters may be involved in the control of the inversion mode. These parameters may include the opening-related structural inheritance, the oceanic lithosphere composition, as well as the age and former structures of the margin.

How to cite: Haidar, S., Leffondré, P., Déverchère, J., Graindorge, D., Klingelhoefer, F., Arab, M., Medaouri, M., and Beslier, M.-O.: New insights on the relationship between inherited structures of the opening of the Algero-Balearic basin and recent inversion of its southern margin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12611, 2022.

EGU22-13052 | Presentations | TS4.1

Connecting subduction, extension, and shear localization across the Aegean Sea and Anatolia 

Sylvain Barbot and Jonathan Weiss

The Eastern Mediterranean is the most seismically active region in Europe due to the complex interactions of the Arabian, African, and Eurasian tectonic plates. Deformation is achieved by faulting in the brittle crust, distributed flow in the viscoelastic lower-crust and mantle, and Hellenic subduction, but the long-term partitioning of these mechanisms is still unknown. We exploit an extensive suite of geodetic observations to build a kinematic model connecting strike-slip deformation, extension, subduction, and shear localization across Anatolia and the Aegean Sea by mapping the distribution of slip and strain accumulation on major active geologic structures. We find that tectonic escape is facilitated by a plate-boundary-like, trans-lithospheric shear zone extending from the Gulf of Evia to the Turkish-Iranian Plateau that underlies the surface trace of the North Anatolian Fault. Additional deformation in Anatolia is taken up by a series of smaller-scale conjugate shear zones that reach the upper mantle, the largest of which is located beneath the East Anatolian Fault. Rapid north-south extension in the western part of the system, driven primarily by Hellenic Trench retreat, is accommodated by rotation and broadening of the North Anatolian mantle shear zone from the Sea of Marmara across the north Aegean Sea, and by a system of distributed transform faults and rifts, including the rapidly extending Gulf of Corinth in central Greece and the active grabens of western Turkey. Africa-Eurasia convergence along the Hellenic Arc occurs at a median rate of 49.8 mm/yr in a largely trench-normal direction, except near eastern Crete where variably-oriented slip on the megathrust coincides with mixed-mode and strike-slip deformation in the overlying accretionary wedge near the Ptolemy-Pliny-Strabo trenches. Our kinematic model illustrates the competing roles the North Anatolian mantle shear zone, Hellenic Trench, overlying mantle wedge, and active crustal faults play in accommodating tectonic indentation, slab rollback, and associated Aegean extension. Viscoelastic flow in the lower crust and upper mantle dominate the surface velocity field across much of Anatolia and a clear transition to megathrust-related slab pull occurs in western Turkey, the Aegean Sea, and Greece. Crustal scale faults and the Hellenic wedge contribute only a minor amount to the large-scale, regional pattern of Eastern Mediterranean interseismic surface deformation.

How to cite: Barbot, S. and Weiss, J.: Connecting subduction, extension, and shear localization across the Aegean Sea and Anatolia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13052, 2022.

EGU22-2908 | Presentations | GD8.4

New insights in the lithospheric configuration of the Ligurian-Provençal Basin derived from gravity field interpretation 

Hans-Jürgen Götze, Judith Bott, Boris Kaus, Magdalena Scheck-Wenderoth, and Christian Schuler

The area of the western Mediterranean between the French and Italian coasts and Corsica-Sardinia is still of great interest in terms of its structural development, which remains incompletely understood. The resolution of geophysical data was not always high enough to explore detailed structures in the lithosphere. After completion of the new AlpArray gravity maps, a high-resolution gravity field is available. The intended 3D modelling of the lithosphere requires the search for reliable constraints for the density/susceptibility models (seismic, bathymetry, gravity fields, gradients). The calculation of residual gravity fields is difficult due to uncertainties in the calculation of regional fields which are characterized by pronounced gravity highs and lows in a very limited spatial area. The residual fields calculated here provide new insights into the lithospheric structure and suggest that the mass distribution in the Ligurian-Provençal Basin does not monotonously follow the known major geological units. A broad belt of local gravity highs (25 - 40 x 10-5 m/s2) extends off the French coast to the northwest of the basin where it merges with NW-SE directed gravity highs (up to 45 x 10-5 m/s2) near the Italian coast. Hitherto unknown is the residual field anomaly south of Marseille with max. 100 x 10-5 m/s2. Euler deconvolution and correlations with maps of focal depths of earthquakes resulted in source depths that lie in the mantle. The results of further processing techniques (curvature calculations, third derivative of potential, terracing and cluster analysis) were superimposed on geological maps to make visual correlations clear. Results of dynamic modelling of the surrounding subduction zones, as well as newly inferred Moho and LAB depths, are also available for interpreting gravity field components of deeper regions of the Earth's mantle in the study area. Previously performed investigations (magnetic field modelling and recent seismic campaigns, e.g., LOBSTER and AlpArray seismic tomography models) were also added to the research.

How to cite: Götze, H.-J., Bott, J., Kaus, B., Scheck-Wenderoth, M., and Schuler, C.: New insights in the lithospheric configuration of the Ligurian-Provençal Basin derived from gravity field interpretation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2908, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2908, 2022.

EGU22-3243 | Presentations | GD8.4

Seismic discontinuities from the Moho to 410 km depth between the Alps and Scandinavia from Sp converted waves 

Rainer Kind, Stefan Schmid, Felix Schneider, Thomas Meier, and Xiaohui Yuan

We use teleseismic data from all available broadband stations, permanent and mobile, in the entire area. Our processing method applies distance moveout correction, amplitude normalization, sign equalization and summation of traces with piercing points in 1° latitude times 1° longitude cells. The traces are stacked along the picked SV onset times. We obtain very clear signals from the Moho, less strong signals from velocity reductions below the Moho and again clear signals from the 410 km discontinuity. We also see locally velocity reductions just above the 410 km discontinuity. We show a number of profiles through the study area and hope to show maps of all seismic discontinuities. We compare our results with earlier observation.

How to cite: Kind, R., Schmid, S., Schneider, F., Meier, T., and Yuan, X.: Seismic discontinuities from the Moho to 410 km depth between the Alps and Scandinavia from Sp converted waves, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3243, 2022.

EGU22-3790 | Presentations | GD8.4

Quaternary paleostress regimes in the Eastern Alps inferred from ruptures in karst caves 

Ivo Baroň, Jacek Szczygieł, Rostislav Melichar, Lukas Plan, Bernhard Grasemann, Eva Kaminsky, and Denis Scholz

In the Alps, the Adriatic plate convergence provoked eastward lateral extrusion compensated by strike-slip faulting and N-directed thrusting. Since the Miocene, these complex processes have led to several paleostress phases. Since the Quaternary phase is the least recognized, we used karst cave passages as the geomorphic displacement indicators. This study presents an overview of 190 Quaternary fault ruptures in totally 27 caves in the Eastern Alps, some radiometrically dated, and the paleostress analysis based on cave passages offset. Reactivated faults have been registered with their orientation, slip vector and offset, in caves adjacent to major fault systems of the Eastern Alps. The paleostress was computed using the multiple inversion method for heterogeneous fault-slip data.

Most active faults in caves along the southern part of the sinistral Vienna Basin Transfer Fault were NW-SE, and NNE-SSW oriented and revealed mostly normal to sinistral kinematics and cumulative offsets of a few mm to a couple of cms. The associated extensional paleostress state comprised the E-W σ3 in agreement with the opening mode of the Vienna Basin. At sinistral Mur-Mürz Fault, the active faults striking NNE-SSE and ENE-WSW operated under a strike-slip regime with σ1 NE-SW. In the eastern segment of sinistral Salzach-Ennstal-Mariazell-Puchberg fault associated strike-slip paleostress regime with horizontal SE-NE σ1, and subhorizontal SE-trending σ3. This stress regime was computed from reverse, oblique reverse, oblique normal, and sinistral strike-slip reactivated faults documented in the Hochschwab massif. The central segment of Salzach-Ennstal-Mariazell-Puchberg fault is adjoin to Totes Gebirge and Dachstein massifs. In the western part of Totes Gebirge, three stress regimes were recorded. N-S and NW-SE striking oblique normal strike-slip faults revealed an extensional regime with NE σ3. Two strike-slip regimes with NE-SW σ1 and subhorizontal σ3 gently inclined to SE and NW were calculated from mostly steep oblique reverse NNE to NW striking faults with offsets up to a few decimetres. In the Dachstein massif, two paleostress phases were identified: the extensional regime with σ3 subhorizontally tilted to NE and the strike-slip regime with N-S σ1. Tens of active, mostly oblique normal strike-slip faults were documented in massifs adjacent to sinistral Königsee-Lammertal-Traunsee Fault: Hoher Göll, Tennengebirge and Hagengebirge. The dominating associated paleostress is an extensional regime with NE-SW σ3. The polyphase sinistral and reverse-dextral NE-SW faults with Late Pleistocene to Early Holocene reactivations and up to 40 cm offsets, identified at the sinistral Obir Fault attributed to the dextral Periadriatic Line. Neither the strike-slip regime with ENE-plunging σ1 nor the other strike-slip regime with σ1 WNW oriented to fit the regional stress setting. It probably resulted from large-scale complex Karawanken Mts. transpressive shear zone deformation.

In conclusion, the paleostress multiple inversions from the Quaternary cave passage ruptures kinematic data brought original information on the paleostress regime over a significant portion of the Eastern Alps in their latest deformational period.

How to cite: Baroň, I., Szczygieł, J., Melichar, R., Plan, L., Grasemann, B., Kaminsky, E., and Scholz, D.: Quaternary paleostress regimes in the Eastern Alps inferred from ruptures in karst caves, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3790, 2022.

EGU22-3979 | Presentations | GD8.4

Initial results of modelling 3D plate dynamics in the Alpine-Mediterranean area 

Christian Schuler, Boris Kaus, Eline Le Breton, and Nicolas Riel

Tectonic reconstructions of lithospheric plate motion can be approached by different geological methods. However hypotheses derived from these findings are often not validated in a physically consistent manner. Therefore we employ 3D geodynamic modelling in order to test geological reconstructions.

In this work, 3D thermomechanical forward simulations of the Alpine-Mediterranean area are conducted using the software LaMEM (Kaus et al. (2016)). A viscoelastoplastic rheology and an internal free surface are applied, which means that apart from the internal dynamics also the surface response can be investigated. Kinematic reconstructions of Le Breton et al. (2021) at 35 Ma serve as an initial setup for the simulations. The goal of these simulations is to determine the main driving forces of plate dynamics in this area. This is done by evaluating effects of different model parameters such as the thermal structure and the geometry of the slabs, the viscosity of the mantle and brittle parameters of the crust.

The geodynamic behaviour of the Alpine-Mediterranean area is dominated by various subducting plates which makes it particularly difficult to distinguish the unique influence of different geodynamic processes. The Adriatic microplate plays a key role in the development of the Alpine Orogeny and its plate motion and therefore serves as a marker as it is possible to compare the current position of this plate with the simulation itself. Even though these forward simulations are not capable of exactly reconstructing the current tectonic setting, they provide insights into parameters which influence the subduction dynamics.

First results suggest that the plate motion of Adria is primarily driven by the interaction of the Calabria slab and the Hellenic slab and that the propagation of these slabs strongly depends on the slab geometry and the initial trench location. Furthermore the spreading rate of rifting in the Liguro-Provençal Basin massively affects the timing of Adria’s plate motion.

 

Kaus, B. J. P., A. A. Popov, T. S. Baumann, A. E. Pusok, A. Bauville, N. Fernandez, and M. Collignon, 2016: Forward and inverse modelling of lithospheric deformationon geological timescales. Proceedings of NIC Symposium.

Le Breton, E., S. Brune, K. Ustaszewski, S. Zahirovic, M. Seton, R. D. Müller, 2021: Kinematics and extent of the Piemont–Liguria Basin–implications for subduction processes in the Alps. Solid Earth, 12(4), 885-913.

 

 

 

 

 

 

How to cite: Schuler, C., Kaus, B., Le Breton, E., and Riel, N.: Initial results of modelling 3D plate dynamics in the Alpine-Mediterranean area, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3979, 2022.

EGU22-4420 | Presentations | GD8.4

Seismotectonics in the Central Alps: An attempt to link fault structures, seismic activity and recent crustal movements 

Marco Herwegh, Samuel Mock, Tobias Diehl, Elmar Brockmann, Sandro Truttmann, Edi Kissling, Eva Kurmann-Matzenauer, Stefan Wiemer, and Andreas Möri

Owing to still ongoing convergence within the Europe-Adria collision zone, Switzerland is affected by heterogeneously distributed moderate seismic activity. The project SeismoTeCH aims to improve the understanding of the links between the seismic activity, existing fault structures and geodynamics in Switzerland and its close vicinity. We started with compiling existing databases on faults (fault densities, lengths and orientations), seismic activity (spatial hypocenter and magnitude distributions, detection of seismic lineaments, focal mechanisms), orientations of mean principal stress axes and recent crustal movements (GNSS, high precision levelling) in order to establish potential correspondences as well as regional variations.

Due to the long-lasting Alpine deformation, fault-orientation patterns as well as fault-densities vary between specific tectonic domains (Jura/North-Alpine foreland, Alpine frontal sediment nappe systems, External Crystalline Massifs, inner-Alpine domains and Southern Alps). Despite this variability, the fault patterns show first order correlations with the spatial arrangement of newly mapped seismic lineaments, earthquake focal planes and associated focal mechanisms. This correlation indicates a regional geodynamics-controlled reactivation of the specific fault networks during current crustal movements. In terms of recent surface movements, variations in (i) horizontal GNSS movements with respect to stable Europe and (ii) vertical uplift (from levelling and GNSS data) have to be discriminated. (i) From E to W in southern Switzerland (S-Grisons–Ticino–Valais, S of Rhone-Simplon line), horizontal movements change from NW to SW directions (velocities >0.5-0.8mm/yr). The southern Adria crustal block shows minimal to no lateral motions in the W-part and a clear NE-directed motion that is progressively increasing towards the E. This motion can be correlated with the so-called counter-clockwise rotation of the Adriatic plate. North of aforementioned domain, N- to NW-directed movements dominate but velocities decrease progressively from the central Alpine domains (<0.3-0.5mm/yr) towards southern Germany, where they are generally small (<0.3-0.4mm NE-CH). This variability between southern and central/northern Switzerland as well as that from E to W, respectively, is accommodated by NE-SW (Rhone-Simplon system) and N-S oriented strike-slip systems. (ii) Most substantial vertical uplift occurs in a WSW-ENE oriented central Alpine belt ranging from the Valais to the Grisons. Note that absolute values of this vertical uplift are 2-3 times larger compared to horizontal movements in the corresponding domains. Focal mechanisms in this high uplift belt indicate orogen-parallel NE-SW extension mainly in the S-Valais and Grisons accommodated by active normal faulting S of the Penninic front. Uplift rates gradually decrease towards the N- and S-Alpine foreland as well as towards Austria and France. Data even suggest tendencies of subsidence at very low rates in the Bresse graben, Upper Rhine graben as well as somewhat more pronounced ones in the eastern Po-plane but not in the CH-Molasse basin. Parts of the northern Alpine foreland exhibit upper to lower crustal seismic activity, while in the thick-crustal-root-enhanced high uplift domains upper crustal seismicity dominates and earthquakes below 20km depth do not occur.

Overall recent surface movements and seismicity in and along Central Alpine crustal blocks are affected by buoyancy-driven vertical combined with transpressional/-tensional horizontal movements indicating a lithosphere-scale geodynamic forcing. 

How to cite: Herwegh, M., Mock, S., Diehl, T., Brockmann, E., Truttmann, S., Kissling, E., Kurmann-Matzenauer, E., Wiemer, S., and Möri, A.: Seismotectonics in the Central Alps: An attempt to link fault structures, seismic activity and recent crustal movements, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4420, 2022.

EGU22-4500 | Presentations | GD8.4

Controls on along-strike variations of basin development: a case study of the Northern Alpine Foreland Basin 

Lucas Eskens, Nevena Andrić-Tomašević, Peter M. Süss, Todd A. Ehlers, Rolf Herrmann, and Matthias Müller

The Northern Alpine Foreland Basin developed in response to the collision between the European and Adriatic plates. During the Oligocene-Early Miocene coeval along-strike deposition of terrestrial and deep marine conditions are recorded in the western and eastern parts of the basin respectively. However, the mechanisms driving the observed variability in along-strike development of the basin are still poorly understood.

To study the causes of the observed along-strike variability we review published geological data and (re)interpret available 2D and 3D seismic data, constrained by well data. We interpret (1) seismic facies, (2) stratigraphic surfaces and (3) tectonic structures. Our current focus area covers the transitional zone between the western and eastern parts of the basin.

In our study we distinguish 6 stratigraphic surfaces from the Base Tertiary to the Top Aquitanian. From Upper Swabia to the German-Austrian border (along the basin strike) we observe that the top of the crystalline basement is tilted towards the east with an angle of 2-3°. Furthermore, the base of the Tertiary deposits is also tilted towards the east with an angle of 0.3°. The main structural features are E-W and NW-SE striking normal faults. In the western part of our study area the normal faults cut the crystalline basement, Mesozoic and Oligocene deposits. The faults are sealed by Rupelian deposits. Thickness changes (~20 m) occur in Rupelian and overlying Chattian deposits. Maximum offsets of up to 60 m are observed for Mesozoic reflectors. In the eastern part of our study area the normal faults cut the crystalline basement, Mesozoic, Oligocene and Early Miocene deposits. Thickness changes across these faults indicate fault activity during the Rupelian, Chattian and Aquitanian. Maximum offsets (>150 m) are observed for Chattian reflectors. Upper Aquitanian deposits seal these faults, which is younger than observed in the western part of the study area. The NW-SE striking faults confine Paleozoic grabens within the crystalline basement.

We relate the observed normal faulting of the Oligocene and Early Miocene deposits to flexural downbending of the European plate, assumed to have been caused by tectonic loading of the Alps and/or European slab pull. Furthermore, we suggest that the observed temporal variation in termination of fault activity is related to temporal and spatial variations in tectonic loading of the Alps and/or European slab pull. Finally, based on the observed eastward tilt of the top crystalline basement and Base Tertiary along the basin strike, variations in pre-existing crustal architecture must be considered.

How to cite: Eskens, L., Andrić-Tomašević, N., Süss, P. M., Ehlers, T. A., Herrmann, R., and Müller, M.: Controls on along-strike variations of basin development: a case study of the Northern Alpine Foreland Basin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4500, 2022.

EGU22-4501 | Presentations | GD8.4

High-resolution deformation maps from the Southern-Eastern Alps compiled from 5-yr-long radar interferometric time-series 

Sabrina Metzger, Milan Lacecký, and Najibullah Kakar

Entering the terminal phase of continental collision, the European Alps exhibit surface deformation rates at the mm-level. Uplift peaks in the Central Alps at 2-3 mm/yr as a result of the post-glacial isostatic rebound, slab tearing, and erosion. Horizontal rate changes of <2 mm/yr are observed in the Southern-Eastern Alps due to the anticlockwise rotation of the Adriatic lithosphere. Here, N–S shortening is primarily accommodated at the densely-populated foothills of the Southern Alps, where seismicity is abundant and includes M6+ earthquakes like the devastating Mw6.5 Friuli earthquake in 1975. Further north and beyond the ESE-trending, dextral Periadriatic fault, the Eastern Alps extrude into the Pannonian basin. Today’s fault slip rates are constrained by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data with an inter-station distance too sparse to provide a detailed insight into plate locking—a vital component of estimating the fault’s seismic potential.

We present 4D-deformation data of the SE-Alps in unprecedented resolution (~400 m, 6 days). The rate maps were derived from radar-interferometric time-series collected since 2017 by the European Sentinel-1 satellites. Each of the assembled 240-km-wide radar tiles consists of 300+ images. The interferograms were automatically generated, phase-unwrapped, and corrected for atmospheric and topographic signal contributions. We estimated the deformation rates using the LiCSBAS time-series analysis software that involves a small-baseline approach and accounts for spatio-temporal coherence and seasonality. By tying the individual, relative InSAR rates—observed in two look directions—into a Eurasian reference frame based on by published GNSS rates we decompose them into east and vertical rates.

Our results illuminate the extreme, to which we can push the InSAR signal-detection threshold if the signal-backscatter properties are as challenging as in the vegetated SE-Alps: The predominant, vertical rates result from a mixture of isostatic, tectonic and anthropogenic processes, overlaid by a soil-moisture bias; the horizontal shortening rates align northwards, to which the radar satellites is least sensitive. Nevertheless, our rates provide new, dense deformation data and highlight processes yet undetected by the GNSS monitoring network.

How to cite: Metzger, S., Lacecký, M., and Kakar, N.: High-resolution deformation maps from the Southern-Eastern Alps compiled from 5-yr-long radar interferometric time-series, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4501, 2022.

EGU22-6582 | Presentations | GD8.4

The AlpArray Seismicity Catalog 

Matteo Bagagli, Irene Molinari, Tobias Diehl, Edi Kissling, and Domenico Giardini

Exploiting the new large seismic data set provided by the AlpArray Seismic Network (AASN) as part of the AlpArray research initiative (www.alparray.ethz.ch), we provide a highly consistent seismicity catalog with precise hypocenter locations and uniform magnitude calculations across the greater Alpine region (GAR) covering the period from 1st January 2016 to 31st December 2019.

With a backbone of 715 broadband seismic stations (415 permanent, 300 temporary) and a uniform interstation distance of ~50 km, the AASN provides a unique opportunity to assess the laterally heterogeneous GAR seismicity distribution. Regularly, the GAR seismicity is monitored and reported by a dozen national and international observatories, requiring a challenging effort to create a uniform and reliable catalog to document and investigate the complex seismicity and tectonics of the GAR.

To establish the highly consistent AlpArray Seismicity Catalog (AASC), we developed a new multi-step, semi-automated method. We applied the SeisComP3 (SC3) seismic-monitoring software and run it in playback mode to analyze the ~50 Tb of continuous data collected in 4 years for initial events detection and to calculate their hypocenter locations. We cleaned this preliminary, automatic seismic catalog from fake events and from events with an initial magnitude less than 2.0 MLv. We then made use of two additional software packages to refine phase picks and locations: the new ADAptive Picking Toolbox (ADAPT) Python library and the VELEST algorithm. The former was used to develop a new multi-picking algorithm for phase identification and precise arrival time determination. The latter was used to obtain the most reliable earthquakes locations, their quantitative error estimation and to reliably predict phase arrivals by solving the coupled hypocenter-velocity problem using the powerful joint-hypocenter determination technique (JHD). The JHD approach was also implemented as a filtering tool for outlier observations and to detect problematic events.

We eventually recalculate the local magnitude (MLv) in a consistent and uniform way, obtaining a statistical magnitude of completeness of 2.4 MLv with different catalog-based techniques. The AASC is also regionally consistent up to 3.0 M+  with seismic bulletins provided by national and international agencies.

Our final 4-year catalog contains 3293 precisely located earthquakes with magnitudes ranging between 0.4 - 4.9 MLv and it clearly delineates the major seismically active fault systems within the GAR. We additionally provide a new minimum 1D P-velocity model for the GAR and appropriate station delays, for both temporary and all permanent stations. These station delays for the permanent seismic station arrays, together with the velocity model, are key to consistently link the GAR past and future seismicity with our current catalog. This would allow the compilation of a broader consistent seismic catalog suitable for other seismological studies including, but not limited to, seismic hazard and a regional 3D local earthquake tomography.

How to cite: Bagagli, M., Molinari, I., Diehl, T., Kissling, E., and Giardini, D.: The AlpArray Seismicity Catalog, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6582, 2022.

EGU22-7246 | Presentations | GD8.4

Status and Implementation of the AdriaArray Seismic Network 

Petr Kolínský, Thomas Meier, and the AdriaArray Seismic Network Working Group

With the advent of plate tectonics in the last century, our understanding of the geological evolution of the Earth system improved essentially. The internal deformation and evolution of tectonic plates remain however poorly understood. This holds in particular for the Central Mediterranean: The formerly much larger Adriatic plate is recently consumed in tectonically active belts spanning at its western margin from Sicily, over the Apennines to the Alps and at its eastern margin from the Hellenides, Dinarides towards the Alps. High seismicity along these belts indicates ongoing lithospheric deformation. It has been shown that data acquired by dense, regional networks like AlpArray provide crucial information on seismically active faults as well as on the structure and deformation of the lithosphere. The Adriatic Plate and in particular its eastern margin have however not been covered by a homogeneous seismic network yet.

Here we report on the status and preparation of AdriaArray – a seismic experiment to cover the Adriatic Plate and its actively deforming margins by a dense broad-band seismic network. Within the AdriaArray region, currently about 950 permanent broad-band stations are operated by more than 40 institutions. Data of 90% of these stations are currently available via EIDA. In addition to the existing stations, 385 temporary stations from 18 mobile pools are to be deployed in the region to achieve a coverage with an average station distance of about 50 – 55 km. The experiment will be based on intense cooperation between network operators, ORFEUS, and interested research groups. Altogether, more than 50 institutions will participate in the AdriaArray experiment. We will introduce the time schedule, participating institutions, mobile station pools, maps of suggested temporary station distribution with station coverage and main points of the agreed Memorandum of Collaboration. The AdriaArray experiment will lead to a significant improvement of our understanding of the geodynamic causes of plate deformation and associated geohazards.

How to cite: Kolínský, P., Meier, T., and Seismic Network Working Group, T. A.: Status and Implementation of the AdriaArray Seismic Network, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7246, 2022.

EGU22-7333 | Presentations | GD8.4

Towards a high-resolution vS crustal velocity model for the Ivrea Geophysical Body: constraints from seismic ambient noise tomography 

Matteo Scarponi, Jiri Kvapil, Ludek Vecsey, Jaroslava Plomerová, IvreaArray Working Group, and AlpArray Working Group

The arc of the Western Alps is characterized by a complex crustal structure. Lower-to-middle crustal composition outcrops are exposed in the Ivrea-Verbano Zone (IVZ) and a major crustal anomaly, known as Ivrea Geophysical Body (IGB), presents dense and seismically fast rocks right below the surface. Understanding better their relation provides a key to refine our understanding of orogeny formation mechanisms.

We performed seismic ambient noise tomography using data from the IvreaArray and the AlpArray Seismic Network, selected within a radius of ca. 100 km around the study area. Previous seismic investigations provided knowledge on the crustal structure in the Western Alps, by means of active refraction seismics and of more recent local earthquake and ambient noise tomography at regional scales (e.g. Solarino et al. 2018 Lithos, Lu et al. 2018 GJI). Recently, gravity data and receiver function analysis imaged the IGB as a dense and fast seismic anomaly, related to upper mantle material, reaching up to few km depth below sea level (Scarponi et al. 2021 Frontiers). However, local high-resolution constraints on the absolute vS distribution remain unknown.

We used raw summer seismic data (June to September) across 3 years of recording, and computed daily ambient noise cross-correlation traces, for all the available station pairs (61 stations in total) in the 2-20s period range. Daily cross-correlations were stacked and processed to extract Green’s functions. Subsequently, we performed frequency-time analysis to get group velocity dispersions for the fundamental mode of surface Rayleigh waves. We computed 2D surface group velocity maps at each period, which clearly show the slow sediment area of the Po Plain, and the fast IGB structure within the crust.

We are going to use the 2D group velocity maps to derive local dispersions curves and invert for 1D vS-depth profiles with the use of the Neighborhood Algorithm, to produce a 3D vS velocity model for the IVZ at high-resolution. This will also provide new geophysical constraints in the target area of the scientific drilling project DIVE (www.dive2ivrea.org) and reliable information for crustal corrections, which are necessary for upper mantle studies in such a complex area.

How to cite: Scarponi, M., Kvapil, J., Vecsey, L., Plomerová, J., Working Group, I., and Working Group, A.: Towards a high-resolution vS crustal velocity model for the Ivrea Geophysical Body: constraints from seismic ambient noise tomography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7333, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7333, 2022.

EGU22-7433 | Presentations | GD8.4

Thermo-kinematic evolution of the Eastern Alps along TRANSALP: Exploring the transient tectonic state towards slab reversal 

Paul Eizenhöfer, Christoph Glotzbach, Jonas Kley, and Todd Ehlers

The Eastern Alps are shaped by the indentation of Adria into Europe and exhibit a doubly-vergent lithospheric wedge geometry. Immediately after the subduction of the Penninic ocean, pro- and retro-wedges have been established in the European and Adriatic plates, respectively. Recent tomographic studies, depicting several detached slab fragments beneath the Alps, have been interpreted as evidence of continuous southward subduction, contrary to an often-invoked subduction polarity reversal. Systematic changes in orogen-scale exhumation, driven by rock displacement along active faults, should reflect such change in subduction polarity. Low temperature thermochronology can evaluate upper lithospheric cooling as a response to changes in tectonic and/or erosional boundary conditions. This study investigates whether a potential change in locations of the pro- and retro-wedges is reconcilable with observed crustal re-organisations, exhumation patterns and mantle tomography. A suite of thermo-kinematic forward models driven by a new 2D structural-kinematic reconstruction of continental collision along the TRANSALP profile in the Eastern Alps has been subject to systematic sensitivity analyses encompassing variations in shortening rates, thermophysical parameters and topographic evolution, supplemented by new apatite and zircon fission-track data. Results from the thermo-kinematic modelling reproduce: (i) the orogen-scale structural geometry, (ii) the distribution of low-temperature thermochronometer ages, (iii) independently determined time-temperature paths, and (vi) the present-day surface heat flux. We suggest that the observed thermochronologic record along the TRANSALP profile is primarily driven by cooling through rock displacement along active faults. Our thermo-kinematic reconstruction emphasises a systematic southward shift of deformation, in particular in the Southern Alps, since onset of motion along the Tauern Ramp. Interpreting both, the Tauern Ramp as a mega retro-thrust and the southward shift of deformation in the Southern Alps, as a response to new Coulomb-wedge criterions, then our results are consistent with a Mid-Miocene reversal of continental subduction polarity. This time frame is compatible with a detachment of the European slab and a tectonic re-organisation of the Eastern Alps since ~10-25 Ma.   

How to cite: Eizenhöfer, P., Glotzbach, C., Kley, J., and Ehlers, T.: Thermo-kinematic evolution of the Eastern Alps along TRANSALP: Exploring the transient tectonic state towards slab reversal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7433, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7433, 2022.

EGU22-7455 | Presentations | GD8.4

Anisotropy of the Bohemian Massif lower crust from ANT - VTI model or additional azimuthal variations? 

Jiří Kvapil, Jaroslava Plomerová, Hana Kampfová Exnerová, and the AlpArray Working Group

Transversely isotropic lower crust of the Bohemian Massif (BM) has been revealed by an ambient noise tomography (ANT) of the BM (Kvapil et al., Solid Earth 2021). The significant feature of this 3D vSV model is the low velocity layer in the lower part of the crust at depth between 18-30 km and the Moho. The upper interface is characterized by a velocity drop in the 1D velocity models retrieved by the ANT. The interface is interrupted around boundaries of major tectonic units of the BM. The lower interface (Moho) exhibits a sharp velocity increase at 26-40km depths through the massif.

In this work we test whether we are able to detect azimuthal anisotropy in the lower crust, approximated up to now by anisotropic VTI model. We use Rayleigh wave dispersion curves evaluated from station pairs sampling the BM in the period range sensitive to the lower crust. First, we analyze seasonal variations of noise sources and their effect on quality and repeatability of dispersion curve measurements. Then we remove the effect of local heterogeneities by subtraction of synthetic dispersion curves calculated for the 3D vSV model along each station-pair raypath. Retrieved variations of azimuthal anisotropy are period-dependent with the fast velocity directions around NE-SW. We interpret the lower crust anisotropy layer as an imprint of the Variscan orogenic processes such as the NW-SE shortening of the crust and the late-Variscan strike-slip movements along boundaries of the crustal unit recorded in the interruptions of velocity drop interface in zones where anisotropic fabric of the lower crust was modified or erased.

How to cite: Kvapil, J., Plomerová, J., Kampfová Exnerová, H., and Working Group, T. A.: Anisotropy of the Bohemian Massif lower crust from ANT - VTI model or additional azimuthal variations?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7455, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7455, 2022.

EGU22-7660 | Presentations | GD8.4

Identifying Seismic Anisotropy Patterns and Improving Tomographic Images in the Alps and Apennines Subduction Environments with Splitting Intensity 

Judith M. Confal, Silvia Pondrelli, Paola Baccheschi, Manuele Faccenda, Simone Salimbeni, and the AlpArray Working Group

Active and past subduction systems influence the interpretation and understanding of current tectonics and velocity structures of the upper mantle of the Alps and Apennines. Computational advances over the years made it possible to identify remnant and active slabs up to great depths. SKS splitting measurements revealed mostly clockwise rotation in the Alpine region and mostly splitting parameters parallel to the Apennines (with new measurements in Central Italy). More than 700 stations were used in this study to calculate splitting intensities and with those similar but more stable fast polarization directions were recovered compared to SKS measurements. Splitting intensity measurements support a possible mantle material flowing through a tear in the Central Apennines. In the Po Plain region as well as east of the Apennine mountains anisotropy seems to be weaker. Moreover the complexity of layered anisotropy, upper mantle flow through possible slab detachments, and subduction related anisotropy with a dipping axis of symmetry are difficult to recover. Due to directional dependency of splitting intensity measurements, they can be used in tomographic inversions to get depth dependent horizontal anisotropy. So far we are able to recover the most prominent splitting patterns and see some changes with depth, especially for anisotropic strength. In this study we intend to use our results to improve tomographic images of the upper mantle by mapping and comparing existing and new anisotropy measurements (e.g., SKS, Pn anisotropy, azimuthal anisotropy from surface waves tomography, and splitting intensities).

How to cite: Confal, J. M., Pondrelli, S., Baccheschi, P., Faccenda, M., Salimbeni, S., and AlpArray Working Group, T.: Identifying Seismic Anisotropy Patterns and Improving Tomographic Images in the Alps and Apennines Subduction Environments with Splitting Intensity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7660, 2022.

EGU22-7800 | Presentations | GD8.4

Towards a comprehensive High Resolution 3D P- and S-Wave Velocity Model for the Alpine Mountain Chain using Local Earthquake Data 

Benedikt Braszus, Andreas Rietbrock, and Christian Haberland

Seismic data availability and automated picking algorithms drastically improved in the European Alps since the last orogen wide crustal P-wave velocity model was compiled by Diehl et al. (2009). Especially, the abundant seismic data recorded by the AlpArray Seimic Network (AASN) which was in operation from 2015-2021 provides a unique high resolution seismic data set. The aim of our project therefore is to create a comprehensive 3D P- and S-wave crustal velocity model for the European Alpine region using Local Earthquake Tomography (LET). Such a model is not only needed to sharpen high resolution teleseismic tomography studies imaging subducted slabs but also to relate surface structures to mountain building processes in the mantle.
To achieve this aim precise onset times of seismic crustal phases are needed. Here we show our first results of automatic onset time determination obtained through the deep-neural-network PhaseNet. When compared to catalogues of manual travel time picks, we find its performance as accurate as a human analyst's. This confirms the transferability of machine learning approaches to our area and data set.
The large amount of evenly distributed seismic stations yields up to a total of 720 P and S arrival picks with epicentral distances up to 700km for events with ML > 3.5. Earthquakes with magnitudes of ML=2.5 are generally detectable for epicentral distances up to at least 200km and contribute approximately 200-300 arrivals per event.
As a first step towards a 3D model we present a thorough analysis of the consistency of the automatically determined arrival times, which facilitates a reliable removal of outliers. 
Furthermore, we show visualizations of our preliminary tomography model and its resolution.

How to cite: Braszus, B., Rietbrock, A., and Haberland, C.: Towards a comprehensive High Resolution 3D P- and S-Wave Velocity Model for the Alpine Mountain Chain using Local Earthquake Data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7800, 2022.

EGU22-7892 | Presentations | GD8.4

Crustal and upper mantle 3D Vs structure of the Pannonian Region from joint earthquake and ambient noise Rayleigh wave tomography 

Máté Timkó, Amr El-Sharkawy, Lars Wiesenberg, László Fodor, Zoltán Wéber, Sergei Lebedev, and Thomas Meier and the AlpArray Working Group

The Pannonian basin is a continental back-arc basin in Central Europe, surrounded by the Alpine, Carpathian, and Dinaric mountain ranges. To better understand this area's tectonic affinity and evolution, a high-resolution model of the crust, the mantle lithosphere, and the asthenosphere is essential. The region's crustal structures are well documented, e.g., classical active seismic, receiver functions, and ambient noise surface wave studies, but consistent imaging of the entire lithosphere remains a challenge. Here we present a new high-resolution 3D shear wave velocity model of the crust and upper mantle of the broader Pannonian region using joint tomographic inversion of ambient noise and earthquake data.

For this purpose, we collected continuous waveform data from more than 1280 seismic stations for ambient noise cross-correlation measurements from a region centered to the Pannonian Basin and encompassing the rimming orogenic chains. This dataset embraces all the permanent and temporary stations operated in the time period from 2005 to 2018. We calculated Rayleigh wave ambient noise phase velocity dispersion curves using the phase of the noise cross-correlation functions of the vertical components in the period range from 5 to 80 s. Then we combined this dataset with existing measurements from earthquake data in the period range of 8-300 s.

At lower periods (< 50 s) and shorter interstation distances, there is a well-documented systematic discrepancy between the dispersion measurements collected by the two methods. The phase-velocity curves measured by the noise-based method are slower on average than the dispersion curves extracted by the earthquake-based method. A correction term is defined by comparing phase velocity curves from both data sets for the same station pairs. Phase velocity maps are then calculated from 5 s to 250 s periods using ambient noise and earthquake measurements.

Local dispersion curves extracted along each grid node of the 2D phase velocity maps are inverted for depth velocity models using a newly implemented Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm to obtain the 3D distribution of the shear-wave velocities. The shear wave velocity structure reveals pronounced variations of the lithospheric thickness and physical properties related to deep tectonic mechanisms operated in the region.

How to cite: Timkó, M., El-Sharkawy, A., Wiesenberg, L., Fodor, L., Wéber, Z., Lebedev, S., and Meier, T. and the AlpArray Working Group: Crustal and upper mantle 3D Vs structure of the Pannonian Region from joint earthquake and ambient noise Rayleigh wave tomography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7892, 2022.

EGU22-7932 | Presentations | GD8.4

Seismic properties profiles of the alpine slab predicted by petrophysics versus ambient noise tomography lithospheric model 

Manon Sonnet, Loïc Labrousse, Jérôme Bascou, Alexis Plunder, Ahmed Nouibat, Laurent Stehly, and Anne Paul

The objective of the present study is to use potential lithologic analogues sampled in the European crust units exhumed in the Alps to predict the seismic properties of the buried continental crust panel. To this end, from the chemical compositions of representative rock samples, we calculate seismic velocities (Vp, Vs or Vp/Vs) at any P and T, under the assumption that the rocks have completely re-equilibrated during burial.

The sample catalog comprehend (1) the mafic intercalations, present in the Variscan basement series of the External Crystalline Massif; (2) the rocks involved in the Grand Paradis - Schistes Lustrés contact (metabasites and garnet bearing micaschists of the upper unit, mylonite and gneiss of the lower unit); (3) those along the Lanzo-Canavese contact (serpentinites, blue schist facies mylonites and biotite bearing gneiss); (4) lithologies of the Ivrea domain (peridotites, garnet bearing gabbros, textured mafic rocks, amphibolitic and mylonitic paragneiss), (5) those from the Gruf massif (biotite bearing orthogneiss, deformed leucogranites and charnockites from the Gruf complex and amphibolites and serpentinites from the Chiavenna unit); (6) lithologies from Alpine Corsica (pelitic gneisses of the granulite facies and more or less foliated metagabbros, from the San Petrone and Farinole unit).

In these diagrams, the main seismic contrasts appear to correspond to the early stages of jadeite crystallization (mainly in the Vp/Vs diagram), as well as to the boundaries of the garnet and clinopyroxene stability fields. Considering the selected rocks as relevant analogues, we then compare the evolution of seismic properties along the top of the Alpine dipping panel with profiles inferred from recent Vp and Vs tomography models (CIFALPS 1 and AlpARRAY), varying the effective thermal profile of the Alpine panel, its reaction degree and overall chemistry. Preliminary results suggest that the lower crust of the plunging panel has a seismic velocity too low to be eclogitized. Its velocity rates are closer to those of an underreacted quartzo-felspathic gneiss. At first sight, observed velocities are too low compared to values predicted for any lithology fully reacted during subduction. The best-fitting scenario turns out to be that of a lower crust thermally relaxed in the variscan without significant mineralogical footprint of subduction. If detected, the velocity rise due to eclogitization might offset of several tenth along the slab, implying a sensible impact of reaction kinetics.

How to cite: Sonnet, M., Labrousse, L., Bascou, J., Plunder, A., Nouibat, A., Stehly, L., and Paul, A.: Seismic properties profiles of the alpine slab predicted by petrophysics versus ambient noise tomography lithospheric model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7932, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7932, 2022.

EGU22-8102 | Presentations | GD8.4

3D anisotropic P-wave tomography of the Central Mediterranean: new insights into slab geometry and upper mantle flow patterns 

Francesco Rappisi, Brandon Paul VanderBeek, Manuele Faccenda, Andrea Morelli, and Irene Molinari

Characterized by the coexistence of different compressional and extensional phases associated with episodes of orogenesis, slab rollback, slab tearing and oceanic spreading, the Central Mediterranean represents one of the most interesting convergent margin on Earth. Since the late 1990s, several seismologists have studied this region aiming at imagining the isotropic and anisotropic structures below its surface. Although numerous researchers have demonstrated that performing P-wave tomography neglecting seismic anisotropy can introduce significant imaging artefacts, prior tomographic studies have largely assumed an isotropic Earth. Using the method proposed by VanderBeek & Faccenda (2021), here we discard the isotropic approximation and invert for both P-wave isotropic velocity anomalies and seismic anisotropy and present the first 3D anisotropic P-wave tomography of the upper mantle covering the entire Central Mediterranean. Our results show that inverting for seismic anisotropy strongly reduces the magnitude of the isotropic P-wave anomalies. This suggests that lateral variations in temperature and/or composition are smaller that what can be inferred from purely isotropic tomographies. P-wave fast azimuths orient mostly parallel to the trend of the Balcanic and the Alpine orogens in Eastern and Central Europe, respectively. In the Central Mediterranean the P-wave fast azimuths are sub-parallel to the Oligocene/Miocene-to-present retreating direction of the Ionian trench which led to the opening of the Liguro-Provençal and Thyrrenian basins and rotation of the Corsica-Sardinia block. We find that the pattern of the P-wave fast azimuths is largely consistent with the S-wave fast azimuths determined from the splitting of SKS waves and from Rayleigh waves. This poses further constraints on the interpretation of the regional geodynamic evolution and on the accuracy of the employed inverse method.

References:

VanderBeek, B. P., & Faccenda, M. 2021. Imaging upper mantle anisotropy with teleseismic P-wave delays: insights from tomographic reconstructions of subduction simulations. Geophysical Journal International,225(3), 2097–2119.

How to cite: Rappisi, F., VanderBeek, B. P., Faccenda, M., Morelli, A., and Molinari, I.: 3D anisotropic P-wave tomography of the Central Mediterranean: new insights into slab geometry and upper mantle flow patterns, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8102, 2022.

EGU22-8174 | Presentations | GD8.4

Moho depths beneath the European Alps from receiver functions of the AlpArray Seismic Network 

Konstantinos Michailos, Matteo Scarponi, Josip Stipčević, György Hetényi, Katrin Hannemann, Dániel Kalmár, Stefan Mroczek, Anne Paul,  Jaroslava Plomerová, Frederik Tilmann, Jerôme Vergne, and the AlpArray Receiver Function Research Group AlpArray Working Group

The European Alps, formed by the interactions between the European and Adriatic plates, is a unique geological structure that has been extensively studied over the past decades. Despite numerous active and passive seismic investigations in the past, the crustal structure across the whole Alpine domain is somehow limited - mainly due to the limited number of seismometers available. The deployment of the AlpArray Seismic Network provides, which consisted of around 600 broadband seismometers and was operational from early 2016 till mid-2019, offers a unique opportunity to further update the current knowledge of the crustal structure beneath the European Alps by employing Receiver function (RF) analysis. 

RF method can provide an efficient way to image the structures and the discontinuities within the uppermost part of the Earth. We use teleseismic earthquakes with M≥5.5 and M<8.5 and epicentral distances ranging between 30 and 90 degrees that occurred during the operational time of the AlpArray Seismic Network. We compute RFs using a time-domain iterative deconvolution method. We apply quality control steps to both the original three-component waveforms and the calculated RFs to ensure that we only use high-quality signals. 

As of abstract submission, we are in the process of calculating the RFs. We also intend to perform a time to depth migration, in a 3D spherical coordinate system, to the RFs. This methodology, together with unprecedented data coverage, will provide us with migrated profiles that will image the structure of the crust and map the Moho depths at a great level of detail. 

How to cite: Michailos, K., Scarponi, M., Stipčević, J., Hetényi, G., Hannemann, K., Kalmár, D., Mroczek, S., Paul, A., Plomerová,  ., Tilmann, F., Vergne, J., and AlpArray Working Group, T. A. R. F. R. G.: Moho depths beneath the European Alps from receiver functions of the AlpArray Seismic Network, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8174, 2022.

EGU22-8725 | Presentations | GD8.4

The DIVEnet: a local seismographic network monitoring the lower continental crust drillings for the ICDP-DIVE project 

Silvia Pondrelli, György Hetényi, Simone Salimbeni, Adriano Cavaliere, Stefania Danesi, Emanuela Ercolani, Irene Molinari, Carlo Giunchi, Konstantinos Michailos, Claudia Piromallo, Lucia Zaccarelli, Giovanna Cultrera, Rocco Cogliano, Gaetano Riccio, and Alberto Zanetti

The ICDP DIVE project (www.dive2ivrea.org) is aimed at addressing fundamental questions on the nature of the lower continental crust and its transition to the mantle, in a first phase through two drillings in the Ivrea Verbano zone (IVZ). The IVZ, considered the world's best outcrop of lower crustal continental rocks, is the exposed part of the Ivrea Geophysical Body (IGB), a major high gravity and high seismic velocity anomaly studied since the 1960s and strongly related to Western Alps structural and tectonic history. Beneath the IVZ the Moho possibly reaches very shallow depth (locally ~1±1 km b.s.l.), making this site unique all over the World.

The two proposed drillings will start in the 2022 in Val D’Ossola: the first in Ornavasso and the second in Megolo, 7 km apart from each other. The assemblage of the two will constitute the most complete record of lower continental crust. Physical and chemical data systematically collected downhole as well as along drill cores will be combined and compared with local/regional geophysical and geological surveys. Within this frame and scope, a dedicated seismographic network named DIVEnet has been planned to monitor local earthquakes and operation-related seismic activity.

Starting from summer 2021 the survey and seismic station deployment started to have all stations running by January 2022. So far 10 seismographic stations provided by INGV and University of Lausanne have been installed within a 15 km maximum distance from the mid-point between the two drilling sites and recording in continuous mode (100 sps). One of the seismometers will be housed in the first completed borehole while the second one is being drilled. Given that the area is characterized by low natural local seismicity and low seismic stations density, having a long time record of background activity and background noise, including the period before and after the drilling activities’ initiation, is of crucial importance. The acquisition and first elaboration of seismic data have been actively included in the routine work at INGV.

How to cite: Pondrelli, S., Hetényi, G., Salimbeni, S., Cavaliere, A., Danesi, S., Ercolani, E., Molinari, I., Giunchi, C., Michailos, K., Piromallo, C., Zaccarelli, L., Cultrera, G., Cogliano, R., Riccio, G., and Zanetti, A.: The DIVEnet: a local seismographic network monitoring the lower continental crust drillings for the ICDP-DIVE project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8725, 2022.

EGU22-8790 | Presentations | GD8.4

Establishing the eastern alpine-dinaric transition with teleseismic receiver functions: Evidence for subducted European Crust 

Stefan Mroczek, Frederik Tilmann, Jan Pleuger, Xiaohui Yuan, and Ben Heit and the SWATH-D and AlpArray Working Groups

The dense SWATH-D seismic network in the Central-Eastern Alps gives an unprecedented window into the collision of the Adriatic and European plates. We apply the receiver function method to the SWATH-D stations, covering approximately the area from 45-49°N and 10-15°E, supplemented by the AlpArray Seismic Network and the EASI data. A switch in the subduction polarity between the Central Alps (European subduction) and the Dinarides (Adriatic subduction) had been previously suggested to occur below the Eastern Alps but its location and nature are heavily debated. To probe this hypothesis we produce a high resolution Moho map of the Eastern Alps and derive Moho depths from joint analysis of receiver function images of direct conversions and multiple reflections, which enables us to map overlapping discontinuities. Contrary to the hypothesis suggesting the subduction of Adriatic lithosphere in the Eastern Alps, we observe the European Moho to be underlying the Adriatic Moho up to the eastern edge of the Tauern Window (~13.5°E). East of this longitude, a sharp transition from underthrusting European to a flat and thinned crust associated with Pannonian extension tectonics occurs, which is underthrust by both European crust in the north and by Adriatic crust in the south. The northeast-directed underthrusting of Adriatic lithosphere smoothly transitions to subduction below the northwestern Dinarides.

Teleseismic tomography and receiver functions show different aspects of the same system (velocity anomalies versus velocity gradients) making direct comparisons difficult. The common conversion point stacks and Moho picks show good agreement with the tomography however some key differences remain. In particular, teleseismic tomography indicates high velocity anomalies detached from the crust east of ~13°E while receiver functions, in particular the transverse component, show some evidence for connection with a continuous interface going to depth.

How to cite: Mroczek, S., Tilmann, F., Pleuger, J., Yuan, X., and Heit, B. and the SWATH-D and AlpArray Working Groups: Establishing the eastern alpine-dinaric transition with teleseismic receiver functions: Evidence for subducted European Crust, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8790, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8790, 2022.

EGU22-9206 | Presentations | GD8.4

Present-day upper mantle structure of the Alps: insights from data-driven dynamic modelling 

Ajay Kumar, Mauro Cacace, Magdalena Scheck-Wenderoth, Judith Bott, Hans-Jürgen Götze, and Boris Kaus

Present-day surface deformation in the Central Alps, that is, uplift and upper-crustal level seismicity in contrast to its northern and southern forelands, has been attributed to surface (i.e., climatic) and tectonic processes (i.e., subduction, slab detachment/break-off, mantle flow). Understanding the relative contribution of these processes is fundamental to understanding their coupling and role in mountain building. The present-day 3D architecture of the lithosphere (i.e., lateral variations of crustal layers and lithospheric mantle thickness) and asthenosphere (i.e., subducted slabs, attached or detached to the orogenic lithosphere) resulting from tectonic processes operating at geologic time scale serve as a boundary condition to test the contribution of surface processes. While the crustal structure in the Alps is well constrained by seismic and gravity data, the upper mantle (i.e., lithospheric mantle and asthenosphere) structure differs from that due to the diversity and subjective interpretation of seismic tomography models. We convert the results of regional shear-wave seismic tomography models to temperature models using the Gibbs-free energy minimization algorithm to define the base of the lithosphere and the position of slabs in the asthenosphere. Our results show that the shallow/attached slab in the Northern Apennines is a common feature in different tomography models, but there are differences in the Alps area. We statistically cluster tomography models into three end-members corresponding to the mean and 67% confidence intervals to address these differences objectively. These end-members represent scenarios ranging from shallow/attached slabs to almost no slabs in the Northern Apennines and Alps. The three end-member scenarios are then used as an input to model the topography and velocities by solving the buoyancy-forces driven instantaneous flow, subject to the first-order rheological structure of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system. Modelled topography and velocities are compared to the first-order patterns of observed topography and GPS derived vertical velocities to discern among the end-member scenarios. Our preliminary results suggest that the lithospheric slab subducting beneath the Northern Apennines should be connected to the overlying lithosphere, whereas it appears to be detached along most of the Alps. The sensitivity of results to the viscosity structure of the crust, lithosphere, and asthenosphere will be discussed.  

How to cite: Kumar, A., Cacace, M., Scheck-Wenderoth, M., Bott, J., Götze, H.-J., and Kaus, B.: Present-day upper mantle structure of the Alps: insights from data-driven dynamic modelling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9206, 2022.

EGU22-9314 | Presentations | GD8.4

The Saint-Ursanne earthquakes of 2000 revisited: Evidence for active shallow thrust-faulting in the Jura fold-and-thrust belt 

Federica Lanza, Tobias Diehl, Nicholas Deichmann, Toni Kraft, Christophe Nussbaum, Senecio Schefer, and Stefan Wiemer

The interpretation of seismotectonic processes within the uppermost few kilometers of the Earth’s crust has proven challenging due to the often significant uncertainties in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of shallow seismicity. Here, we revisit the shallow seismic sequence of Saint-Ursanne of March and April 2000 and apply advanced seismological analyses to reduce these uncertainties. The sequence, consisting of five earthquakes of which the largest one reached a local magnitude (ML) of 3.2, occurred in the vicinity of two critical sites, the Mont Terri rock laboratory and Haute-Sorne, which is currently evaluated as a possible site for the development of a deep geothermal project. Template matching analysis for the period 2000-2021, including data from mini arrays installed in the region since 2014, suggests that the source of the 2000 sequence has not been persistently active ever since. Forward modelling of synthetic waveforms points to a very shallow source, between 0 and 1 km depth, and the focal mechanism analysis indicates a low-angle, NNW-dipping, thrust mechanism. These results combined with geological data suggest that the sequence is likely related to a backthrust fault located within the sedimentary cover and shed new light on the hosting lithology and source kinematics of the Saint-Ursanne sequence. Together with two other more recent shallow thrust faulting earthquakes near Grenchen and Neuchâtel in the north-central portion of the Jura fold-and-thrust belt (FTB), these new findings provide new insights into the present-day seismotectonic processes of the Jura FTB of northern Switzerland and suggest that the Jura FTB is still undergoing seismically active contraction at rates likely <0.5 mm/yr. The shallow focal depths provide indications that this low-rate contraction in the NE portion of the Jura FTB is at least partly accommodated within the sedimentary cover and possibly decoupled from the basement. This trenspressive regime is confirmed by the ML4.1 Réclère earthquake of December 24. 2021, which occurred ~20 kilometres west of St. Ursanne in the uppermost crust.

How to cite: Lanza, F., Diehl, T., Deichmann, N., Kraft, T., Nussbaum, C., Schefer, S., and Wiemer, S.: The Saint-Ursanne earthquakes of 2000 revisited: Evidence for active shallow thrust-faulting in the Jura fold-and-thrust belt, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9314, 2022.

EGU22-9691 | Presentations | GD8.4

The three-dimensional stress field around the margins of the Adriatic Plate derived from source mechanisms 

Elisabeth Glück, Thomas Meier, and Josip Stipcevic

At present time, the formerly much larger Adriatic Microplate is still actively being subducted beneath the Apennines and the Dinarides-Hellenides zone with continental collision and related processes occurring under the Alps and the Dinarides. These tectonic processes along with the large-scale component of the northward moving African Plate resulted in a complex 3D stress field.

In the light of the complex tectonic processes accompanying the movement of the Adriatic Plate, we aim to investigate the three-dimensional stress field in that area by stress inversion using focal mechanism data from the available CMT and RCMT earthquake catalogues. The focal mechanisms are inverted to better understand the stress regime in that region and how the stress pattern is depending on the current tectonic setting. A staggered grid algorithm was used for binning the focal mechanisms before the inversion.

The calculated 3D stress field indicates that the direction of the large-scale convergence of Africa and Eurasia is similar to the dominating direction of the maximum horizontal stress axis in the western central Mediterranean, with the exception of the Apennines, where the subduction of the Adriatic Plate beneath the northern Apennines is the primary source of stress. On the eastern margin of the Adriatic Plate the lack of deeper seismicity and a back arc basin, as well as the orogen normal orientation of the maximum horizontal stress axis in the Dinarides is pointing towards a continental subduction zone with an aseismic delaminating slab of lower lithosphere without a significant slab pull component.
Changes of the stress pattern within the Adriatic Plate may result from intraplate deformation, which points towards a fragmentation of Adria along the Mid Adriatic Ridge into two subplates, Adria Sensu Strictu in the north and Apulia in the south. While Adria Sensu Strictu is moving independently from Africa, Apulia is depending on the larger plates movement.
The inversion of the focal mechanisms from the Hellenic Subduction Zone yields results about the rotation of the stress field with depth, as the maximum horizontal stress rotates from trench normal at shallow depths to trench parallel deeper down.

How to cite: Glück, E., Meier, T., and Stipcevic, J.: The three-dimensional stress field around the margins of the Adriatic Plate derived from source mechanisms, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9691, 2022.

EGU22-11256 | Presentations | GD8.4

Revisiting moment tensors in Switzerland: Unraveling source characteristics in Central Alps and their foreland 

Maria Mesimeri, Tobias Diehl, John Clinton, Marco Herwegh, and Stefan Wiemer

Studies on moment tensors (MT) and focal mechanisms are of great importance for assessing regional and local seismotectonic processes, especially when a high-quality, dense network is in operation. However, common MT inversion methods are largely restricted to magnitudes > 3.5. In order to lower the completeness of MT catalogs, improved Green’s functions and/or hybrid inversion techniques are needed. In this study, we revisit small-to-moderate earthquakes, which occurred in Switzerland and surrounding regions by means of various MT inversion methods and assess the potential to improve completeness of MT catalogs in Central Alps region. To accomplish this, we implement state-of the art methods for MT inversion using either full waveform data or combinations of first-motion polarities with amplitudes and amplitude ratios. Methods based on full waveform inversion considered in this study are ISOLA (Sokos & Zahradnik 2013) and Grond (Heimann et al. 2018), as well as techniques based on amplitudes and/or polarities (HybridMT (Kwiatek et al. 2016), MTfit (Pugh & White 2018)), which can solve MTs for smaller magnitude earthquakes. Hence, the combination of multiple techniques allows to compute full or deviatoric MTs for a broader range of magnitudes and enrich the existing catalogs.

We first apply these methods to recent earthquake sequences occurred in the Central Alps between 2019 and 2021. During that period, several earthquake sequences, like the one associated with the 2021 M4.1 Arolla earthquake, occurred and show complexity on the waveforms, due to their shallow focal depths. In addition, several of the standard MT solutions calculated by the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) for these earthquakes indicate complex moment tensors with unusually high percentage of the CLVD component. To check whether such CLVD component is real and not an artifact caused, for instance, by unmodeled heterogeneities, we invert for full and deviatoric MTs using multiple 1D velocity models and algorithms. Additionally, we perform MT inversions for several earthquakes either within selected earthquake sequences or regional background seismicity. The resulting MT solutions are compared to existing high-quality focal mechanisms computed using first motion polarities as well as to high-precision double difference locations. Uncertainties of MT solutions are estimated using bootstrap-based methods. This work contributes towards an enriched high-quality focal mechanisms database for Switzerland, which could be used to revisit the regional to local stress field at unprecedented resolution and provides new insights into the complexities of active fault systems in the Central Alps region.

References:

Heimann, S., Isken, M., Kühnn, D., Sudhaus, H., Steinberg, A., Vasyura-Bathke, H., Daout, S., et al. (2018) Grond - A probabilistic earthquake source inversion framework., GFZ Data Services. doi:10.5880/GFZ.2.1.2018.003

Kwiatek, G., Martínez-Garzón, P. & Bohnhoff, M. (2016) HybridMT: A MATLAB/Shell Environment Package for Seismic Moment Tensor Inversion and Refinement. Seismol. Res. Lett., 87, 964–976. doi:10.1785/0220150251

Pugh, D.J. & White, R.S. (2018) MTfit: A Bayesian Approach to Seismic Moment Tensor Inversion. Seismol. Res. Lett., 89, 1507–1513. doi:10.1785/0220170273

Sokos, E.N. & Zahradnik, J. (2013) Evaluating Centroid-Moment-Tensor Uncertainty in the New Version of ISOLA Software. Seismol. Res. Lett., 84, 656–665. doi:10.1785/0220130002

How to cite: Mesimeri, M., Diehl, T., Clinton, J., Herwegh, M., and Wiemer, S.: Revisiting moment tensors in Switzerland: Unraveling source characteristics in Central Alps and their foreland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11256, 2022.

EGU22-11266 | Presentations | GD8.4

Internal deformation of the Dolomites Indenter, eastern Southern Alps: structural field data and low-temperature thermochronology 

Thomas Klotz, Hannah Pomella, Anna-Katharina Sieberer, Hugo Ortner, and István Dunkl

The Dolomites Indenter represents the front of the Neogene to ongoing N(W)-directed continental indentation of Adria into Europe. Deformation of the Dolomites Indenter is well studied along its rim, documented by important fault zones such as the Periadriatic fault system, the Giudicarie belt, and the Valsugana and Montello fault systems. With this study, we aim to investigate the internal deformation of the Dolomites Indenter, which has been much less studied so far but is important for understanding crustal-scale processes during the Alpine orogeny.

 

Our approach to unravel the indenters exhumation and deformation history comprises (i) the compilation and acquisition of detailed structural and sedimentological field data within the Dolomites Indenter, (ii) a collection of a new and comprehensive low-temperature thermochronological dataset (this contribution), and (iii) crustal- to lithospheric-scale physical analogue modelling experiments (see contribution of Sieberer et al. in session TS7.2 – Internal deformation of the Dolomites Indenter, eastern Southern Alps: Orthogonal to oblique basin inversion investigated in crustal scale analogue models).

 

New field data comprise evidence for four distinguishable shortening directions. Examined intersection criteria along N-S cross sections covering the indenters extend from Periadriatic to Bassano fault system support a succession of Top SW, Top (S)SE, Top S and Top E(SE) movement. However, preexisting geometry strongly seems to affect the regional expression of respective compression phases and along strike variation of lineation trends can be observed within coherent fault systems.

 

The limited amount of existing thermochronological data already indicates the presence of relative vertical displacements within the Dolomites Indenter after the onset of indentation, including mostly Miocene apatite fission track (AFT) cooling ages along the Periadriatic and the Valsugana fault and several age clusters of Triassic to Jurassic AFT data. In order to obtain a detailed picture of the indenters thermotectonic evolution, an extensive set of samples has been collected along three roughly N-S striking corridors between Bolzano in the west and Tolmezzo in the east. In this contribution we present the new apatite (U-Th)/He and fission track data along the westernmost corridor (Mauls - Brixen - Valsugana - Schio).

 

The results of field work, comprehensive modelling of time temperature paths, and physical analogue modelling substantially contribute to the understanding of internal deformation and thus enable conclusions to be drawn about the processes at lithospheric scale.

How to cite: Klotz, T., Pomella, H., Sieberer, A.-K., Ortner, H., and Dunkl, I.: Internal deformation of the Dolomites Indenter, eastern Southern Alps: structural field data and low-temperature thermochronology, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11266, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11266, 2022.

EGU22-11358 | Presentations | GD8.4

Distribution of Active Seismic Deformation in the Eastern Alps from the Recent Swath-D Experiment 

Rens Hofman, Joern Kummerow, Simone Cesca, Joachim Wassermann, and Thomas Plenefisch and the AlpArray Working Group

The Swath-D network was a temporary seismic experiment nested within the AlpArray backbone network. Roughly 150 broadband stations were deployed across the Austrian-Italian border in the Eastern Alps during the second half of 2017, and were active to late 2019. This dense network provided an unprecedented resolution in a tectonically active region that is considered to play an important role in the evolution of the Alps. Extracting new information from this dataset turned out to be challenging due to the large volume of the dataset, low magnitude of the seismicity, and heterogeneity of the study area.

We applied waveform-based methods to detect, phase-pick, and relocate seismic events using data from the Swath-D network in the Eastern Alps. A GPU-accelerated template matching algorithm was developed in order to increase the number of detected earthquakes based on the previously known seismicity. Newly detected events were automatically picked using based on waveform similarity, and precisely relocated. This poster provides an overview of our results and the methods that we have applied.

How to cite: Hofman, R., Kummerow, J., Cesca, S., Wassermann, J., and Plenefisch, T. and the AlpArray Working Group: Distribution of Active Seismic Deformation in the Eastern Alps from the Recent Swath-D Experiment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11358, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11358, 2022.

EGU22-12266 | Presentations | GD8.4

SEismic imaging of the Ivrea ZonE (project SEIZE) reveals the 3D structure of the Ivrea body near Balmuccia, Italy 

Britta Wawerzinek, Trond Ryberg, Klaus Bauer, Manfred Stiller, Christian Haberland, Alberto Zanetti, Luca Ziberna, György Hetényi, Michael Weber, and Charlotte M. Krawczyk

The Ivrea-Verbano Zone (IVZ) located in the Italian Alps is known as one of most complete archetypes of continental crust–upper mantle section on Earth (e.g. Pistone et al., 2017). Because of its accessibility at the surface it can be used as natural laboratory to improve the understanding of the crust–mantle transition zone. Several geophysical observables indicate the presence of mantle rocks (high density, high seismic velocity) in the shallow sub-surface (~ 1 km), commonly known as the “Bird’s Head” or Ivrea body (Berckhemer, 1968; Diehl et al., 2009; Scarponi et al., 2021). 

The project SEIZE images and characterizes the shallow upper crust at the Balmuccia site (Italy) providing depth, extent and shape of the outcropping Ivrea body as well as its rock properties. Our tomographic study covers the crust down to about 3 km depth, while seismic reflection imaging is possible down to 6 km depth or deeper. With SEIZE we contribute to the comprehensive ICDP Drilling program in the Ivrea-Verbano ZonE (DIVE, www.dive2ivrea.org).

To tackle this task, a controlled source (vibroseis) seismic experiment was carried out in the region around Balmuccia in October 2020. The seismic survey comprised two crossing profiles with a total length of 28 km which ran along (NNE-SSW) and across (W-E) the Balmuccia peridotite. In total, 432 vibro points were acquired with a nominal distance of ~60 m which were recorded using a fix-spread (110 receivers, ~250 m spacing) and a roll-along setup (330 receivers, ~20 m spacing).

To obtain a structural image of the shallow upper crust various seismic techniques are applied: The fix-spread data set is used to recover the velocity structure down to 3 km depth. By using a 3D Markov chain Monte Carlo travel time tomography a shallow, distinct high velocity body is imaged in 3D near Balmuccia, at the proposed drill site. Reflection seismic processing is applied to the roll-along data set. However, the difficult terrain setting (deep mountain valleys) results in complex wave propagation that is challenging for conventional processing methods (e.g. static and dynamic corrections, CDP stacking). Therefore, pre-stack migration techniques are applied enabling the imaging of steeply dipping structures.

How to cite: Wawerzinek, B., Ryberg, T., Bauer, K., Stiller, M., Haberland, C., Zanetti, A., Ziberna, L., Hetényi, G., Weber, M., and Krawczyk, C. M.: SEismic imaging of the Ivrea ZonE (project SEIZE) reveals the 3D structure of the Ivrea body near Balmuccia, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12266, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12266, 2022.

EGU22-12668 | Presentations | GD8.4

Inside the fault core in the footwall of Simplon Fault Zone (Central Alps): ductile to brittle deformation history shown by fault gouge 

Valentina Argante, David Colin Tanner, Christian Brandes, Christoph Von Hagke, and Sumiko Tsukamoto

For thorough understanding of the dynamics of mountain building processes, it is crucial to reconstruct the youngest crustal deformation history over time. Low-angle normal faults are features caused by orogen-parallel extension, which occurs in the last stage of collision. Low-angle normal faults play a key role in the exhumation of the lower crust and they are the reason for most of the seismicity within the chain.

We carried out microstructural analyses on an outcrop in the footwall of one of the major normal faults of the Alpine chain, the Simplon Fault Zone. This low-angle normal fault extended the crust by tens kilometers and it caused exhumation of its footwall, the deeper lower crust of the Alps, i.e. the Penninic nappes. The Simplon Fault Zone itself consists of a thick mylonitic zone overprinted by a narrow cataclastic zone, with the same kinematics. Its timing evolution history from ductile to brittle deformation is still under discussion. This study shows a new microstructural analysis from a fault gouge within the footwall of the northern part of the Simplon Fault Zone, and how it can reconstruct the different stages of exhumation history of this shear zone.

Results from micro-structural analyses show grain boundary migration features on folded quartz veins. This suggests that the protolith of the fault zone was at high temperature conditions, T>600°C, during dynamic deformation. This folding belongs to extension-parallel folds that affect only the ductile shear zone. The presence of greenschist facies minerals suggests that the rock was exposed to low temperature and pressure conditions (T=300-400°C, P=0.2GPa). Pressure-solution mechanisms affect both quartz and greenschist paragenesis, indicating formation in a shallow position of the shear zone. The last deformation was purely brittle, as shown by vertical calcite veins or fractures in quartz. It suggests a near-surface position of the fault.

Altogether, these multiple deformation phases within the gouge samples indicate a continuous exhumation history from high to low temperatures, with clear cross-cutting relationships. However, the lack of cataclasite features can be related to an involvement of the rocks within the fault core in a subsequent stage of deformation. To explain this we suggest a model in which the footwall maintained a high temperature over a long time, which inhibited cataclastic processes.

How to cite: Argante, V., Tanner, D. C., Brandes, C., Von Hagke, C., and Tsukamoto, S.: Inside the fault core in the footwall of Simplon Fault Zone (Central Alps): ductile to brittle deformation history shown by fault gouge, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12668, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12668, 2022.

EGU22-13245 | Presentations | GD8.4

3D geophysical and thermal modelling of the northeast Carpathian lithosphere: Implications for geothermal potential of the Baia Mare region 

Alexander Minakov, Carmen Gaina, Liviu Matenco, Maik Neukirch, and Ionelia Panea

The presented study is part of an international multidisciplinary project aiming to investigate the geothermal potential of the Baia Mare volcanic province in north-western Romania. We integrate existing geological, geochemical, hydrogeological, and geophysical data into a 3D lithospheric temperature model. In addition, new seismic reflection and broadband magnetotelluric data, acquired in the study region, provide additional constraints on the crustal-scale structures possibly controlling the transport of deep heat to the surface.

The study area is located within the Neogene Inner Carpathian volcanic arc and includes the area of the recent crustal uplift between the north-eastern part of the Pannonian Basin and the Transylvanian Basin. Borehole temperature measurements showed a geothermal gradient of 45-55 oC km-1 and temperatures higher than 150 oC at depths of 3000 m, the highest values of heat flow recorded to date in Romania. The region is known for surface hot springs and hydrothermal and epithermal volcanic ore deposits.

The heterogeneous pre-Neogene basement contains metamorphic and igneous rocks deformed or emplaced during Precambrian to Paleozoic orogenic cycles and a Triassic-Paleogene sedimentary cover with a variable radioactive heat production rate. The Miocene magmatic plumbing system within the Neogene sedimentary sequence includes intrusive bodies of 1-10s of km size. Crustal hydraulic properties and associated hydrothermal systems are possibly controlled by the regional Bogdan Voda – Dragos Voda strike-slip faults system, which provided pathways for the Miocene volcanic emplacement and sub-volcanic intrusions.

The knowledge of deep lithospheric structure is important for the characterisation of sedimentary basins with a geothermal exploration potential. In this contribution, we present geophysical and geological data and describe the construction of a regional 3D lithospheric temperature model. The structural model includes sedimentary successions, crystalline crustal layers and lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary constrained by gravity, seismic tomography and magnetotelluric data. The temperature modelling is performed by solving 3-D steady state heat conduction equation using a finite element method. We compare the model responses with available surface heat flow and borehole temperature measurements and discuss the role of local crustal heterogeneities, transient heat transfer and fluid circulation on the thermal state of the Baia Mare region.

How to cite: Minakov, A., Gaina, C., Matenco, L., Neukirch, M., and Panea, I.: 3D geophysical and thermal modelling of the northeast Carpathian lithosphere: Implications for geothermal potential of the Baia Mare region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13245, 2022.

Wholesale slab breakoff or detachment in the Alps has been invoked to explain Periadriatic
calc-alkaline magmatism (43-29 Ma), rapid exhumation of HP metamorphics, as well as
clastic infill of proximal parts of the Alpine Molasse basin (31-28 Ma). However, the 14 My
timespan of these events exceeds the duration of slab detachment estimated from
thermomechanical modelling (2-8 My) and from depocenter migration (~5 My) along
equivalent lengths of the Carpathians and Apennines. Moreover, wholesale slab
detachment does not explain major E-W differences in Alpine orogenic structure, basin
evolution, and kinematics of indentation in the Alps.
Recent V p tomography from AlpArray suggests that the slab segment beneath the
Central Alps comprises European lithosphere and remains attached down to the MTZ. The
~600km length of this segment suggests that it never ruptured and is still connected to
subducted lithosphere of Alpine Tethys. In contrast, the Alpine slab is detached beneath the
Eastern Alps and Pannonian Basin. The minimum time since detachment is bracketed at 25-
10 Ma based on a comparison of vertical detachment distance with global slab sink rates.
We propose a new model of slab detachment in the Alps that began with slab
steepening when the Adria-Europe convergence rate after collision at ~35 ma decreased to
<1 cm/yr. Periadriatic magmatism is no longer attributed to slab detachment and
asthenospheric upwelling, but to fluxing of the cold mantle wedge by fluids derived from
the devolatilizing Alpine slab (Müntener et al. 2021; doi: 10.2138/gselements.17.1.35). Slab
steepening and delamination were more pronounced in the Eastern Alps, possibly due to
the greater negative buoyancy of the slab in the absence of Brianconnais continental
lithosphere, which was never present in the eastern part of Alpine Tethys. Slab pull thus
drove subsidence and continued marine sedimentation in the E. Molasse basin from 29-19
Ma, while the western part of the basin filled with terrigeneous sediments already at 31-28
Ma.
Slab detachment was restricted to the part of the Alps east of the Giudicarie Fault in
Miocene time. Detachment coincided with a switch in the advancing orogenic front, from
the northern front in the Eastern Alps to the southern front in the eastern Southern Alps.
This also coincided with rapid exhumation in the Tauern Window and lateral eastward
escape of the orogenic crust toward the Pannonian Basin. Rapid W-to-E filling of the Eastern
Molasse basin between 19-16 Ma is interpreted to reflect eastward propagation of the slab
tear and the onset of rollback subduction in the Carpathians.
E-W differences in Alpine structure are thus attributed to the contrasting response of
the Alpine orogenic wedge to slab steepening, delamination and detachment. Whereas
steepening and delamination in the west in late Oligocene time induced horizontal
shortening and increased taper of the orogenic wedge with rapid exhumation and
denudation focused in the retro-wedge, Miocene detachment in the east triggered a
dramatic switch in the pro- and retro-wedges, such that rapid exhumation and denudation
was ultimately focused in the axis of the orogenic wedge.

How to cite: Handy, M. R.: A new model of slab detachment in the Alps and its geodynamic consequences, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13517, 2022.

EGU22-2024 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2 | Highlight

Understanding natural hazards in a changing landscape: A citizen science approach in Kigezi highlands, southwestern Uganda 

Violet Kanyiginya, Ronald Twongyirwe, Grace Kagoro, David Mubiru, Matthieu Kervyn, and Olivier Dewitte

The Kigezi highlands, southwestern Uganda, is a mountainous tropical region with a high population density, intense rainfall, alternating wet and dry seasons and high weathering rates. As a result, the region is regularly affected by multiple natural hazards such as landslides, floods, heavy storms, and earthquakes. In addition, deforestation and land use changes are assumed to have an influence on the patterns of natural hazards and their impacts in the region. Landscape characteristics and dynamics controlling the occurrence and the spatio-temporal distribution of natural hazards in the region remain poorly understood. In this study, citizen science has been employed to document and understand the spatial and temporal occurrence of natural hazards that affect the Kigezi highlands in relation to the multi-decadal landscape change of the region. We present the methodological research framework involving three categories of participatory citizen scientists. First, a network of 15 geo-observers (i.e., citizens of local communities distributed across representative landscapes of the study area) was established in December 2019. The geo-observers were trained at using smartphones to collect information (processes and impacts) on eight different natural hazards occurring across their parishes. In a second phase, eight river watchers were selected at watershed level to monitor the stream flow characteristics. These watchers record stream water levels once daily and make flood observations. In both categories, validation and quality checks are done on the collected data for further analysis. Combining with high resolution rainfall monitoring using rain gauges installed in the watersheds, the data are expected to characterize catchment response to flash floods. Lastly, to reconstruct the historical landscape change and natural hazards occurrences in the region, 96 elderly citizens (>70 years of age) were engaged through interviews and focus group discussions to give an account of the evolution of their landscape over the past 60 years. We constructed a historical timeline for the region to complement the participatory mapping and in-depth interviews with the elderly citizens. During the first 24 months of the project, 240 natural hazard events with accurate timing information have been reported by the geo-observers. Conversion from natural tree species to exotic species, increased cultivation of hillslopes, road construction and abandonment of terraces and fallowing practices have accelerated natural hazards especially flash floods and landslides in the region. Complementing with the region’s historical photos of 1954 and satellite images, major landscape dynamics have been detected. The ongoing data collection involving detailed ground-based observations with citizens shows a promising trend in the generation of new knowledge about natural hazards in the region.

How to cite: Kanyiginya, V., Twongyirwe, R., Kagoro, G., Mubiru, D., Kervyn, M., and Dewitte, O.: Understanding natural hazards in a changing landscape: A citizen science approach in Kigezi highlands, southwestern Uganda, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2024, 2022.

EGU22-2929 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Possible Contributions of Citizen Science in the Development of the Next Generation of City Climate Services 

Peter Dietrich, Uta Ködel, Sophia Schütze, Felix Schmidt, Fabian Schütze, Aletta Bonn, Thora Herrmann, and Claudia Schütze

Human life in cities is already affected by climate change. The effects will become even more pronounced in the coming years and decades. Next-generation of city climate services is necessary for adapting infrastructures and the management of services of cities to climate change. These services are based on advanced weather forecast models and the access to diverse data. It is essential to keep in mind that each citizen is a unique individual with their own peculiarities, preferences, and behaviors. The base for our approach is the individual specific exposure, which considers that people perceive the same conditions differently in terms of their well-being. Individual specific exposure can be defined as the sum of all environmental conditions that affect humans during a given period of time, in a specific location, and in a specific context. Thereby, measurable abiotic parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, pollution and noise are used to characterize the environmental conditions. Additional information regarding green spaces, trees, parks, kinds of streets and buildings, as well as available infrastructures are included in the context. The recording and forecasting of environmental parameters while taking into account the context, as well as the presentation of this information in easy-to-understand and easy-to-use maps, are critical for influencing human behavior and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation measures.

We will adopt this approach within the frame of the recently started, EU-funded CityCLIM project. We aim to develop and implement approaches which will explore the potential of citizen science in terms of current and historical data collecting, data quality assessment and evaluation of data products.  In addition, our approach will also provide strategies for individual climate data use, and the derivation and evaluation of climate change adaptation actions in cities.

In a first step we need to define and to characterize the different potential stakeholder groups involved in citizen science data collection. Citizen science offers approaches that consider citizens as both  organized target groups (e.g., engaged companies, schools) and individual persons (e.g. hobby scientists). An important point to be investigated is the motivation of citizen science stakehoder groups to sustainably collect data and make it available to science and reward them accordingly. For that purpose, strategic tools, such as value proposition canvas analysis, will be applied to taylor the science-to-business and the science-to-customer communications and offers in terms of the individual needs.

How to cite: Dietrich, P., Ködel, U., Schütze, S., Schmidt, F., Schütze, F., Bonn, A., Herrmann, T., and Schütze, C.: Possible Contributions of Citizen Science in the Development of the Next Generation of City Climate Services, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2929, 2022.

EGU22-4168 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Extending Rapid Image Classification with the Picture Pile Platform for Citizen Science 

Tobias Sturn, Linda See, Steffen Fritz, Santosh Karanam, and Ian McCallum

Picture Pile is a flexible web-based and mobile application for ingesting imagery from satellites, orthophotos, unmanned aerial vehicles and/or geotagged photographs for rapid classification by volunteers. Since 2014, there have been 16 different crowdsourcing campaigns run with Picture Pile, which has involved more than 4000 volunteers who have classified around 11.5 million images. Picture Pile is based on a simple mechanic in which users view an image and then answer a question, e.g., do you see oil palm, with a simple yes, no or maybe answer by swiping the image to the right, left or downwards, respectively. More recently, Picture Pile has been modified to classify data into categories (e.g., crop types) as well as continuous variables (e.g., degree of wealth) so that additional types of data can be collected.

The Picture Pile campaigns have covered a range of domains from classification of deforestation to building damage to different types of land cover, with crop type identification as the latest ongoing campaign through the Earth Challenge network. Hence, Picture Pile can be used for many different types of applications that need image classifications, e.g., as reference data for training remote sensing algorithms, validation of remotely sensed products or training data of computer vision algorithms. Picture Pile also has potential for monitoring some of the indicators of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Picture Pile Platform is the next generation of the Picture Pile application, which will allow any user to create their own ‘piles’ of imagery and run their own campaigns using the system. In addition to providing an overview of Picture Pile, including some examples of relevance to SDG monitoring, this presentation will provide an overview of the current status of the Picture Pile Platform along with the data sharing model, the machine learning component and the vision for how the platform will function operationally to aid environmental monitoring.

How to cite: Sturn, T., See, L., Fritz, S., Karanam, S., and McCallum, I.: Extending Rapid Image Classification with the Picture Pile Platform for Citizen Science, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4168, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4168, 2022.

EGU22-5094 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Life in undies – Preliminary results of a citizen science data collection targeting soil health assessement in Hungary 

Mátyás Árvai, Péter László, Tünde Takáts, Zsófia Adrienn Kovács, Kata Takács, János Mészaros, and László Pásztor

Last year, the Institute for Soil Sciences, Centre for Agricultural Research launched Hungary's first citizen science project with the aim to obtain information on the biological activity of soils using a simple estimation procedure. With the help of social media, the reactions on the call for applications were received from nearly 2000 locations. 

In the Hungarian version of the international Soil your Undies programme, standardized cotton underwear was posted to the participants with a step-by-step tutorial, who buried their underwear for about 60 days, from mid of May until July in 2021, at a depth of about 20-25 cm. After the excavation, the participants took one digital image of the underwear and recorded the geographical coordinates, which were  uploaded to a GoogleForms interface together with several basic information related to the location and the user (type of cultivation, demographic data etc.).

By analysing digital photos of the excavated undies made by volunteers, we obtained information on the level to which cotton material had decomposed in certain areas and under different types of cultivation. Around 40% of the participants buried the underwear in garden, 21% in grassland, 15% in orchard, 12% in arable land, 5% in vineyard and 4% in forest (for 3% no landuse data was provided).

The images were first processed using Fococlipping and Photoroom softwares for background removing and then percentage of cotton material remaining was estimated based on the pixels by using R Studio ‘raster package’.

The countrywide collected biological activity data from nearly 1200 sites were statistically evaluated by spatially aggregating the data both for physiographical and administrative units. The results have been published on various platforms (Facebook, Instagram, specific web site etc.), and a feedback is also given directly to the volunteers.

According to the experiments the first citizen science programme proved to be successful. 

 

Acknowledgment: Our research was supported by the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH; K-131820)

Keywords: citizen science; soil life; soil health; biological activity; soil properties

How to cite: Árvai, M., László, P., Takáts, T., Kovács, Z. A., Takács, K., Mészaros, J., and Pásztor, L.: Life in undies – Preliminary results of a citizen science data collection targeting soil health assessement in Hungary, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5094, 2022.

EGU22-5147 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Distributed databases for citizen science 

Julien Malard-Adam, Joel Harms, and Wietske Medema

Citizen science is often heavily dependent on software tools that allow members of the general population to collect, view and submit environmental data to a common database. While several such software platforms exist, these often require expert knowledge to set up and maintain, and server and data hosting costs can become quite costly in the long term, especially if a project is successful in attracting many users and data submissions. In the context of time-limited project funding, these limitations can pose serious obstacles to the long-term sustainability of citizen science projects as well as their ownership by the community.

One the other hand, distributed database systems (such as Qri and Constellation) dispense with the need for a centralised server and instead rely on the devices (smartphone or computer) of the users themselves to store and transmit community-generated data. This new approach leads to the counterintuitive result that distributed systems, contrarily to centralised ones, become more robust and offer better availability and response times as the size of the user pool grows. In addition, since data is stored by users’ own devices, distributed systems offer interesting potential for strengthening communities’ ownership over their own environmental data (data sovereignty). This presentation will discuss the potential of distributed database systems to address the current technological limitations of centralised systems for open data and citizen science-led data collection efforts and will give examples of use cases with currently available distributed database software platforms.

How to cite: Malard-Adam, J., Harms, J., and Medema, W.: Distributed databases for citizen science, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5147, 2022.

EGU22-5571 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

RESECAN: citizen-driven seismology on an active volcano (Cumbre Vieja, La Palma Island, Canaries) 

Rubén García-Hernández, José Barrancos, Luca D'Auria, Vidal Domínguez, Arturo Montalvo, and Nemesio Pérez

During the last decades, countless seismic sensors have been deployed throughout the planet by different countries and institutions. In recent years, it has been possible to manufacture low-cost MEMS accelerometers thanks to nanotechnology and large-scale development. These devices can be easily configured and accurately synchronized by GPS. Customizable microcontrollers like Arduino or RaspBerryPI can be used to develop low-cost seismic stations capable of local data storage and real-time data transfer. Such stations have a sufficient signal quality to be used for complementing conventional seismic networks.

In recent years Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias (INVOLCAN) has developed a proprietary low-cost seismic station to implement the Canary Islands School Seismic Network (Red Sísmica Escolar Canaria - RESECAN) with multiple objectives:

  • supporting the teaching of geosciences.
  • promoting the scientific vocation.
  • strengthening the resilience of the local communities by improving awareness toward volcanism and the associated hazards.
  • Densifying the existing seismic networks.

On Sept. 19th 2021, a volcanic eruption started on the Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma. The eruption was proceeded and accompanied by thousands of earthquakes, many of them felt with intensities up to V MCS. Exploiting the attention drawn by the eruption, INVOLCAN started the deployment of low-cost seismic stations in La Palma in educational centres. In this preliminary phase, we selected five educational centres on the island.

The project's objective is to create and distribute low-cost stations in various educational institutions in La Palma and later on the whole Canary Islands Archipelago, supplementing them with educational material on the topics of seismology and volcanology. Each school will be able to access the data of its station, as well as those collected by other centres, being able to locate some of the recorded earthquakes. The data recorded by RESECAN will also be integrated into the broadband seismic network operated by INVOLCAN (Red Sísmica Canaria, C7). RESECAN will be an instrument of scientific utility capable of contributing effectively to the volcano monitoring of the Canary Islands, reinforcing its resilience with respect to future volcanic emergencies.

How to cite: García-Hernández, R., Barrancos, J., D'Auria, L., Domínguez, V., Montalvo, A., and Pérez, N.: RESECAN: citizen-driven seismology on an active volcano (Cumbre Vieja, La Palma Island, Canaries), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5571, 2022.

EGU22-6970 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Analysis of individual learning outcomes of students and teachers in the citizen science project TeaTime4Schools 

Anna Wawra, Martin Scheuch, Bernhard Stürmer, and Taru Sanden

Only a few of the increasing number of citizen science projects set out to determine the projects impact on diverse learning outcomes of citizen scientists. However, besides pure completion of project activities and data collection, measurable benefits as individual learning outcomes (ILOs) (Phillips et al. 2014) should reward voluntary work.

Within the citizen science project „TeaTime4Schools“, Austrian students in the range of 13 to 18 years collected data as a group activity in a teacher guided school context; tea bags were buried into soil to investigate litter decomposition. In an online questionnaire a set of selected scales of ILOs (Phillips et al. 2014, Keleman-Finan et al. 2018, Wilde et al. 2009) were applied to test those ILOs of students who participated in TeaTime4Schools. Several indicators (scales for project-related response, interest in science, interest in soil, environmental activism, and self-efficacy) were specifically tailored from these evaluation frameworks to measure four main learning outcomes: interest, motivation, behavior, self-efficacy. In total, 106 valid replies of students were analyzed. In addition, 21 teachers who participated in TeaTime4Schools, answered a separate online questionnaire that directly asked about quality and liking of methods used in the project based on suggested scales about learning tasks of University College for Agricultural and Environmental Education (2015), which were modified for the purpose of this study. Findings of our research will be presented.

How to cite: Wawra, A., Scheuch, M., Stürmer, B., and Sanden, T.: Analysis of individual learning outcomes of students and teachers in the citizen science project TeaTime4Schools, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6970, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6970, 2022.

EGU22-7164 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Seismic and air monitoring observatory for greater Beirut : a citizen observatory of the "urban health" of Beirut 

Cecile Cornou, Laurent Drapeau, Youssef El Bakouny, Samer Lahoud, Alain Polikovitch, Chadi Abdallah, Charbel Abou Chakra, Charbel Afif, Ahmad Al Bitar, Stephane Cartier, Pascal Fanice, Johnny Fenianos, Bertrand Guillier, Carla Khater, and Gabriel Khoury and the SMOAG Team

Already sensitive because of its geology (seismic-tsunamic risk) and its interface between arid and temperate ecosystems, the Mediterranean Basin is being transformed by climate change and major urban pressure on resources and spaces. Lebanon concentrates on a small territory the environmental, climatic, health, social and political crises of the Middle East: shortages and degradation of surface and groundwater quality, air pollution, landscape fragmentation, destruction of ecosystems, erosion of biodiversity, telluric risks and very few mechanisms of information, prevention and protection against these vulnerabilities. Further, Lebanon is sorely lacking in environmental data at sufficient temporal and spatial scales to cover the range of key phenomena and to allow the integration of environmental issues for the country's development. This absence was sadly illustrated during the August 4th, 2020, explosion at the port of Beirut, which hindered the effective management of induced threats to protect the inhabitants. In this degraded context combined with a systemic crisis situation in Lebanon, frugal  innovation is more than an option, it is a necessity. Initiated in 2021 within the framework of the O-LIFE lebanese-french research consortium (www.o-life.org), the « Seismic and air monitoring observatory  for greater Beirut » (SMOAG) project aims at setting up a citizen observatory of the urban health of Beirut by deploying innovative, connected, low-cost, energy-efficient and robust environmental and seismological instruments. Through co-constructed web services and mobile applications with various stakeholders (citizens, NGOs, decision makers and scientists), the SMOAG citizen observatory will contribute to the information and mobilization of Lebanese citizens and managers by sharing the monitoring of key indicators associated with air quality, heat islands and building stability, essential issues for a sustainable Beirut.

The first phase of the project was dedicated to the development of a low-cost environmental sensor enabling pollution and urban weather measurements (particle matters, SO2, CO, O3, N02, solar radiation, wind speed, temperature, humidity, rainfall) and to the development of all the software infrastructure, from data acquisition to the synoptic indicators accessible via web and mobile application, while following the standards of the Sensor Web Enablement and Sensor Observation System of the OGC and to the FAIR principles (Easy to find, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable). A website and Android/IOS applications for the restitution of data and indicators and a dashboard allowing real time access to data have been developed. Environmental and low-cost seismological stations (Raspberry Shake) have been already deployed in Beirut, most of them hosted by Lebanese citizens. These instrumental and open data access efforts were completed by participatory workshops with various stakeholders  to improve the ergonomy of the web and application interfaces and to define roadmap for the implantation of future stations, consistently with  most vulnerable populations identified by NGOs and the current knowledge on the air pollution and heat islands in Beirut.

How to cite: Cornou, C., Drapeau, L., El Bakouny, Y., Lahoud, S., Polikovitch, A., Abdallah, C., Abou Chakra, C., Afif, C., Al Bitar, A., Cartier, S., Fanice, P., Fenianos, J., Guillier, B., Khater, C., and Khoury, G. and the SMOAG Team: Seismic and air monitoring observatory for greater Beirut : a citizen observatory of the "urban health" of Beirut, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7164, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7164, 2022.

EGU22-7323 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Citizen science for better water quality management in the Brantas catchment, Indonesia? Preliminary results 

Reza Pramana, Schuyler Houser, Daru Rini, and Maurits Ertsen

Water quality in the rivers and tributaries of the Brantas catchment (about 12.000 km2) is deteriorating due to various reasons, including rapid economic development, insufficient domestic water treatment and waste management, and industrial pollution. Various water quality parameters are at least measured on monthly basis by agencies involved in water resource development and management. However, measurements consistently demonstrate exceedance of the local water quality standards. Recent claims presented by the local Environmental Protection Agency indicate that the water quality is much more affected by the domestic sources compared to the others. In an attempt to examine this, we proposed a citizen science campaign by involving people from seven communities living close to the river, a network organisation that works on water quality monitoring, three government agencies, and students from a local university. Beginning in 2022, we kicked off our campaign by measuring with test strips for nitrate, nitrite, and phosphate on weekly basis at twelve different locations from upstream to downstream of the catchment. In the effort to provide education on water stewardship and empower citizens to participate in water quality management, preliminary results – the test strips, strategies, and challenges - will be shown.

How to cite: Pramana, R., Houser, S., Rini, D., and Ertsen, M.: Citizen science for better water quality management in the Brantas catchment, Indonesia? Preliminary results, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7323, 2022.

EGU22-7916 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Citizen science - an invaluable tool for obtaining high-resolution spatial and temporal meteorological data 

Jadranka Sepic, Jure Vranic, Ivica Aviani, Drago Milanovic, and Miro Burazer

Available quality-checked institutional meteorological data is often not measured at locations of particular interest for observing specific small-scale and meso-scale atmospheric processes. Similarly, institutional data can be hard to obtain due to data policy restrictions. On the other hand, a lot of people are highly interested in meteorology, and they frequently deploy meteorological instruments at locations where they live. Such citizen data are often shared through public data repositories and websites with sophisticated visualization routines.  As a result, the networks of citizen meteorological stations are, in numerous areas, denser and more easily accessible than are the institutional meteorological networks.  

Several examples of publicly available citizen meteorological networks, including school networks, are explored – and their application to published high-quality scientific papers is discussed. It is shown that for the data-based analysis of specific atmospheric processes of interest, such as mesoscale convective disturbances and mesoscale atmospheric gravity waves, the best qualitative and quantitative results are often obtained using densely populated citizen networks.  

Finally, a “cheap and easy to do” project of constructing a meteorological station with a variable number of atmospheric sensors is presented. Suggestions on how to use such stations in educational and citizen science activities, and even in real-time warning systems, are given.  

How to cite: Sepic, J., Vranic, J., Aviani, I., Milanovic, D., and Burazer, M.: Citizen science - an invaluable tool for obtaining high-resolution spatial and temporal meteorological data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7916, 2022.

Among the greatest constraints to accurately monitoring and understanding climate and climate change in many locations is limited in situ observing capacity and resolution in these places. Climate behaviours along with dependent environmental and societal processes are frequently highly localized, while observing systems in the region may be separated by hundreds of kilometers and may not adequately represent conditions between them. Similarly, generating climate equity in urban regions can be hindered by an inability to resolve urban heat islands at neighborhood scales. In both cases, higher density observations are necessary for accurate condition monitoring, research, and for the calibration and validation of remote sensing products and predictive models. Coincidentally, urban neighborhoods are heavily populated and thousands of individuals visit remote locations each day for recreational purposes. Many of these individuals are concerned about climate change and are keen to contribute to climate solutions. However, there are several challenges to creating a voluntary citizen science climate observing program that addresses these opportunities. The first is that such a program has the potential for limited uptake if participants are required to volunteer their time or incur a significant cost to participate. The second is that researchers and decision-makers may be reluctant to use the collected data owing to concern over observer bias. This paper describes the on-going development and implementation by 2DegreesC.org of a technology-driven citizen science approach in which participants are equipped with low-cost automated sensors that systematically sample and communicate scientifically valid climate observations while they focus on other activities (e.g., recreation, gardening, fitness). Observations are acquired by a cloud-based system that quality controls, anonymizes, and makes them openly available. Simultaneously, individuals of all backgrounds who share a love of the outdoors become engaged in the scientific process via data-driven communication, research, and educational interactions. Because costs and training are minimized as barriers to participation, data collection is opportunistic, and the technology can be used almost anywhere, this approach is dynamically scalable with the potential for millions of participants to collect billions of new, accurate observations that integrate with and enhance existing observational network capacity.

How to cite: Shein, K.: Linking citizen scientists with technology to reduce climate data gaps, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10634, 2022.

The 2019-2020 bushfire season (the Black Summer) in Australia was unprecedented in its breadth and severity as well as the disrupted resources and time dedicated to studying it.  Right after one of the most extreme fire seasons on record had hit Australia, a once-in-a-century global pandemic, COVID-19, occurred. This pandemic caused world-wide lockdowns throughout 2020 and 2021 that prevented travel and field work, thus hindering researchers from assessing damage done by the Black Summer bushfires. Early assessments show that the bushfires on Kangaroo Island, South Australia caused declines in soil nutrients and ground coverage up to 10 months post-fire, indicating higher risk of soil erosion and fire-induced land degradation at this location. In parallel to the direct impacts the Black Summer bushfires had on native vegetation and soil, the New South Wales Nature Conservation Council observed a noticeable increase in demand for fire management workshops in 2020. What was observed of fires and post-fire outcomes on soil and vegetation from the 2019-2020 bushfire season that drove so many citizens into action? In collaboration with the New South Wales Nature Conservation Council and Rural Fire Service through the Hotspots Fire Project, we will be surveying and interviewing landowners across New South Wales to collect their observations and insights regarding the Black Summer. By engaging landowners, this project aims to answer the following: within New South Wales, Australia, what impact did the 2019-2020 fire season have on a) soil health and native vegetation and b) human behaviours and perceptions of fire in the Australian landscape. The quantity of insights gained from NSW citizens will provide a broad assessment of fire impacts across multiple soil and ecosystem types, providing knowledge of the impacts of severe fires, such as those that occurred during the Black Summer, to the scientific community. Furthermore, with knowledge gained from reflections from citizens, the Hotspots Fire Project will be better able to train and support workshop participants, while expanding the coverage of workshops to improve support of landowners across the state. Data regarding fire impacts on soil, ecosystems, and communities has been collected by unknowing citizen scientists all across New South Wales, and to gain access to that data, we need only ask.

How to cite: Ondik, M., Ooi, M., and Muñoz-Rojas, M.: Insights from landowners on Australia's Black Summer bushfires: impacts on soil and vegetation, perceptions, and behaviours, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10776, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10776, 2022.

High air pollution concentration levels and increased urban heat island intensity, are amongst the most critical contemporary urban health concerns. This is the reason why various municipalities are starting to invest in extensive direct air quality and microclimate sensing networks. Through the study of these datasets it has become evident that the understanding of inter-urban environmental gradients is imperative to effectively introduce urban land-use strategies to improve the environmental conditions in the neighborhoods that suffer the most, and develop city-scale urban planning solutions for a better urban health.  However, given economic limitations or divergent political views, extensive direct sensing environmental networks have yet not been implemented in most cities. While the validity of citizen science environmental datasets is often questioned given that they rely on low-cost sensing technologies and fail to incorporate sensor calibration protocols, they can offer an alternative to municipal sensing networks if the necessary Quality Assurance / Quality Control (QA/QC) protocols are put in place.

This research has focused on the development of a QA/QC protocol for the study of urban environmental data collected by the citizen science PurpleAir initiative implemented in the Bay Area and the city of Los Angeles where over 700 purple air stations have been implemented in the last years. Following the QA/QC process the PurpleAir data was studied in combination with remote sensing datasets on land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index, and geospatial datasets on socio-demographic and urban fabric parameters. Through a footprint-based study, and for all PurpleAir station locations, the featured variables and the buffer sizes with higher correlations have been identified to compute the inter-urban environmental gradient predictions making use of 3 supervised machine learning models: - Regression Tree Ensemble, Support Vector Machine, and a Gaussian Process Regression.

How to cite: Llaguno-Munitxa, M., Bou-Zeid, E., Rueda, P., and Shu, X.: Citizen-science urban environmental monitoring for the development of an inter-urban environmental prediction model for the city of Los Angeles, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11765, 2022.

EGU22-11797 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Attitudes towards a cafetiere-style filter system and paper-based analysis pad for soil nutrition surveillance in-situ: evidence from Kenya and Vietnam 

Samantha Richardson, Philip Kamau, Katie J Parsons, Florence Halstead, Ibrahim Ndirangu, Vo Quang Minh, Van Pham Dang Tri, Hue Le, Nicole Pamme, and Jesse Gitaka

Routine monitoring of soil chemistry is needed for effective crop management since a poor understanding of nutrient levels affects crop yields and ultimately farmers’ livelihoods.1 In low- and middle-income countries soil sampling is usually limited, due to required access to analytical services and high costs of portable sampling equipment.2 We are developing portable and low-cost sampling and analysis tools which would enable farmers to test their own land and make informed decisions around the need for fertilizers. In this study we aimed to understand attitudes of key stakeholders towards this technology and towards collecting the data gathered on public databases which could inform decisions at government level to better manage agriculture across a country.

 

In Kenya, we surveyed 549 stakeholders from Murang’a and Kiambu counties, 77% men and 23% women. 17.2% of these respondent smallholder farmers were youthful farmers aged 18-35 years with 81.9% male and 18.1% female-headed farming enterprises. The survey covered current knowledge of soil nutrition, existing soil management practices, desire to sample soil in the future, attitudes towards our developed prototypes, motivation towards democratization of soil data, and willingness to pay for the technology. In Vietnam a smaller mixed methods online survey was distributed via national farming unions to 27 stakeholders, in particular engaging younger farmers with an interest in technology and innovation.

Within the Kenya cohort, only 1.5% of farmers currently test for nutrients and pH. Reasons given for not testing included a lack of knowledge about soil testing (35%), distance to testing centers (34%) and high costs (16%). However, 97% of respondents were interested in soil sampling at least once a year, particularly monitoring nitrates and phosphates. Nearly all participants, 94-99% among the males/females/youths found cost of repeated analysis of soil samples costing around USD 11-12 as affordable for their business. Regarding sharing the collecting data, 88% believed this would be beneficial, for example citing that data shared with intervention agencies and agricultural officers could help them receive relevant advice.

In Vietnam, 87% of famers did not have their soil nutrient levels tested with 62% saying they did not know how and 28% indicating prohibitive costs. Most currently relied on local knowledge and observations to improve their soil quality. 87% thought that the system we were proposing was affordable with only 6% saying they would not be interested in trialing this new technology. Regarding the soil data, respondents felt that it should be open access and available to everyone.

Our surveys confirmed the need and perceived benefit for our proposed simple-to-operate and cost-effective workflow, which would enable farmers to test soil chemistry themselves on their own land. Farmers were also found to be motivated towards sharing their soil data to get advice from government agencies. The survey results will inform our further development of low-cost, portable analytical tools for simple on-site measurements of nutrient levels within soil.

 

1. Dimkpa, C., et al., Sustainable Agriculture Reviews, 2017, 25, 1-43.

2. Zingore, S., et al., Better Crops, 2015, 99 (1), 24-26.

How to cite: Richardson, S., Kamau, P., Parsons, K. J., Halstead, F., Ndirangu, I., Minh, V. Q., Tri, V. P. D., Le, H., Pamme, N., and Gitaka, J.: Attitudes towards a cafetiere-style filter system and paper-based analysis pad for soil nutrition surveillance in-situ: evidence from Kenya and Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11797, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11797, 2022.

Keywords: preconcentration, heavy metal, cafetiere, citizen science, paper-based microfluidics

Heavy-metal analysis of water samples using microfluidics paper-based analytical devices (µPAD) with colourimetric readout is of great interest due to its simplicity, affordability and potential for Citizen Science-based data collection [1]. However, this approach is limited by the relatively poor sensitivity of the colourimetric substrates, typically achieving detection within the mg L-1 range, whereas heavy-metals exist in the environment at <μg L-1 quantities   [2]. Preconcentration is commonly used when analyte concentration is below the analytical range, but this typically requires laboratory equipment and expert users [3]. Here, we are developing a simple method for pre-concentration of heavy metals, to be integrated with a µPAD workflow that would allow Citizen Scientists to carry out pre-concentration as well as readout on-site.

The filter mesh from an off-the-shelf cafetière (350 mL) was replaced with a custom-made bead carrier basket, laser cut in PMMA sheet featuring >500 evenly spread 100 µm diameter holes. This allowed the water sample to pass through the basket and mix efficiently with the 2.6 g ion-exchange resin beads housed within (Lewatit® TP207, Ambersep® M4195, Lewatit® MonoPlus SP 112). An aqueous Ni2+ sample (0.3 mg L-1, 300 mL) was placed in the cafetiere and the basket containing ion exchange material was moved up and down for 5 min to allow Ni2+ adsorption onto the resin. Initial investigations into elution with a safe, non-toxic eluent focused on using NaCl (5 M). These were carried out by placing the elution solution into a shallow dish and into which the the resin containing carrier basket was submerging. UV/vis spectroscopy via a colourimetric reaction with nioxime was used to monitor Ni2+ absorption and elution.

After 5 min of mixing it was found that Lewatit® TP207 and Ambersep® M4195 resins adsorbed up to 90% of the Ni2+ ions present in solution and the Lewatit® MonoPlus SP 112 adsorbed up to 60%. However, the Lewatit® MonoPlus SP 112 resin performed better for elution with NaCl. Initial studies showed up to 30% of the Ni2+ was eluted within only 1 min of mixing with 10 mL 5 M NaCl.

Using a cafetière as pre-concentration vessel coupled with non-hazardous reagents in the pre-concentration process allows involvement of citizen scientists in more advanced environmental monitoring activities that cannot be achieved with a simple paper-based sensor alone. Future work will investigate the user-friendliness of the design by trialling the system with volunteers and will aim to further improve the trapping and elution efficiencies.

 

References:

  • Almeida, M., et al., Talanta, 2018, 177, 176-190.
  • Lace, A., J. Cleary, Chemosens., 2021. 9, 60.
  • Alahmad, W., et al.. Biosens. Bioelectron., 2021. 194, 113574.

 

How to cite: Sari, M., Richardson, S., Mayes, W., Lorch, M., and Pamme, N.: Method development for on-site freshwater analysis with pre-concentration of nickel via ion-exchange resins embedded in a cafetière system and paper-based analytical devices for readout, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11892, 2022.

EGU22-12972 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2 | Highlight

Collection of valuable polar data and increase in nature awareness among travellers by using Expedition Cruise Ships as platforms of opportunity 

Verena Meraldi, Tudor Morgan, Amanda Lynnes, and Ylva Grams

Hurtigruten Expeditions, a member of the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO) and the Association of Arctic Expedition Cruise Operators (AECO) has been visiting the fragile polar environments for two decades, witnessing the effects of climate change. Tourism and the number of ships in the polar regions has grown significantly. As a stakeholder aware of the need for long-term protection of these regions, we promote safe and environmentally responsible operations, invest in the understanding and conservation of the areas we visit, and focus on the enrichment of our guests.

For the last couple of years, we have supported the scientific community by transporting researchers and their equipment to and from their study areas in polar regions and we have established collaborations with numerous scientific institutions. In parallel we developed our science program with the goal of educating our guests about the natural environments they are in, as well as to further support the scientific community by providing our ships as platforms of opportunity for spatial and temporal data collection. Participation in Citizen Science programs that complement our lecture program provides an additional education opportunity for guests to better understand the challenges the visited environment faces while contributing to filling scientific knowledge gaps in remote areas and providing data for evidence-based decision making.

We aim to continue working alongside the scientific community and developing partnerships. We believe that scientific research and monitoring in the Arctic and Antarctic can hugely benefit from the reoccurring presence of our vessels in these areas, as shown by the many projects we have supported so far. In addition, our partnership with the Polar Citizen Science Collective, a charity that facilitates interaction between scientists running Citizen Science projects and expedition tour operators, will allow the development of programs on an industry level, rather than just an operator level, increasing the availability and choice of platforms of opportunity for the scientific community.

How to cite: Meraldi, V., Morgan, T., Lynnes, A., and Grams, Y.: Collection of valuable polar data and increase in nature awareness among travellers by using Expedition Cruise Ships as platforms of opportunity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12972, 2022.

EGU22-13115 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Participatory rainfall monitoring: strengthening hydrometeorological risk management and community resilience in Peru 

Miguel Arestegui, Miluska Ordoñez, Abel Cisneros, Giorgio Madueño, Cinthia Almeida, Vannia Aliaga, Nelson Quispe, Carlos Millán, Waldo Lavado, Samuel Huaman, and Jeremy Phillips

Heavy rainfall, floods and debris flow on the Rimac river watershed are recurring events that impact Peruvian people in vulnerable situations.There are few historical records, in terms of hydrometeorological variables, with sufficient temporal and spatial accuracy. As a result, Early Warning Systems (EWS) efficiency, dealing with these hazards, is critically limited.

In order to tackle this challenge, among other objectives, the Participatory Monitoring Network (Red de Monitoreo Participativo or Red MoP, in spanish) was formed: an alternative monitoring system supported by voluntary community collaboration of local population under a citizen science approach. This network collects and communicates data captured with standardized manual rain gauges (< 3USD). So far, it covers districts in the east metropolitan area of the capital city of Lima, on dense peri-urban areas, districts on the upper Rimac watershed on rural towns, and expanding to other upper watersheds as well.

Initially led by Practical Action as part of the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance, it is now also supported by SENAMHI (National Meteorological and Hydrological Service) and INICTEL-UNI (National Telecommunications Research and Training Institute), as an activity of the National EWS Network (RNAT).

For the 2019-2022 rainfall seasons, the network has been gathering data and information from around 80 volunteers located throughout the Rimac and Chillon river watersheds (community members, local governments officers, among others): precipitation, other meteorological variables, and information regarding the occurrence of events such as floods and debris flow (locally known as huaycos). SENAMHI has provided a focalized 24h forecast for the area covered by the volunteers, experimentally combines official stations data with the network’s for spatial analysis of rainfall, and, with researchers from the University of Bristol, analyses potential uses of events gathered through this network. In order to facilitate and automatize certain processes, INICTEL-UNI developed a web-platform and a mobile application that is being piloted.

We present an analysis of events and trends gathered through this initiative (such as a debris flow occurred in 2019). Specifically, hotspots and potential uses of this sort of refined spatialized rainfall information in the dry & tropical Andes. As well, we present a qualitative analysis of volunteers’ expectations and perceptions. Finally, we also present a meteorological explanation of selected events, supporting the importance of measuring localized precipitation during the occurrence of extreme events in similar complex, physical and social contexts.

How to cite: Arestegui, M., Ordoñez, M., Cisneros, A., Madueño, G., Almeida, C., Aliaga, V., Quispe, N., Millán, C., Lavado, W., Huaman, S., and Phillips, J.: Participatory rainfall monitoring: strengthening hydrometeorological risk management and community resilience in Peru, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13115, 2022.

SM2 – Seismic Instrumentation and Infrastructure

EGU22-2188 | Presentations | SM2.1

Locating Nearby Explosions in Fürstenfeldbruck, Germany, Combining 8 Rotational Sensors 

Gizem Izgi, Eva P.S. Eibl, Frank Krüger, and Felix Bernauer

The seismic wavefield can only be completely described by the combination of translation, rotation and strain. Direct measurement of rotational motions in combination with the translational motions allow observing the complete seismic ground motion. Portable blueSeis-3A (iXblue) sensors allow to measure 3 components of rotational motions. We co-located Nanometrics Horizon seismometers with blueSeis-3A sensors and measured the full wavefield.

An active source experiment was performed in Fürstenfeldbruck, Germany in November 2019, in order to further investigate the performance of multiple rotational instruments in combination with seismometers. Within the scope of the experiment 5 explosions took place. For the first two explosions, all 8 rotational sensors were located inside of a bunker while for the rest of explosions, 4 sensors each were located at 2 different sites of the field. One group was co-located with translational seismometers. This is the first time the recordings of 8 rotational sensors are combined for event analysis and location. We calculate and intersect the back azimuths and derive phase velocities of the five explosions.

We discuss the reliability of the data recorded by the rotational sensors for further investigations in other environments.

How to cite: Izgi, G., Eibl, E. P. S., Krüger, F., and Bernauer, F.: Locating Nearby Explosions in Fürstenfeldbruck, Germany, Combining 8 Rotational Sensors, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2188, 2022.

EGU22-2455 | Presentations | SM2.1

Understanding surface-wave modal content for high-resolution imaging with ocean-bottom distributed acoustic sensing 

Zack Spica, Loïc Viens, Mathieu Perton, Kiwamu Nishida, Takeshi Akuhara, Masanao Shinohara, and Tomoaki Yamada

Ocean Bottom Distributed Acoustic Sensing (OBDAS) is emerging as a new measurement method providing dense, high-fidelity, and broadband seismic observations from fiber-optic cables. Here, we use ~40 km of a telecommunication cable located offshore the Sanriku region, Japan, and apply ambient seismic field interferometry to obtain an extended 2-D high-resolution shear-wave velocity model. In some regions of the array, we observe and invert more than 20 higher modes and show that the accuracy of the retrieval of some modes strongly depends on the processing steps applied to the data. In addition, numerical simulations suggest that the number of modes that can be retrieved is proportional to the local velocity gradient under the cable. Regions with shallow low-velocity layers tend to contain more modes than those located in steep bathymetry areas, where sediments accumulate less. Finally, we can resolve sharp horizontal velocity contrasts under the cable suggesting the presence of faults and other sedimentary features. Our results provide new constraints on the shallow submarine structure in the area and further demonstrate the potential of OBDAS for offshore geophysical prospecting.

How to cite: Spica, Z., Viens, L., Perton, M., Nishida, K., Akuhara, T., Shinohara, M., and Yamada, T.: Understanding surface-wave modal content for high-resolution imaging with ocean-bottom distributed acoustic sensing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2455, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2455, 2022.

EGU22-2563 | Presentations | SM2.1

On the Multi-component Information of DAS for Near-Surface Seismic: A Pilot Field Experiment in the Groningen Area 

Musab Al Hasani, Guy Drijkoningen, and Kees Wapenaar

In a surface-seismic setting, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is still not a widely adopted method for near-surface characterisation, especially for reflection seismic imaging, despite the dense spatial sampling it provides over long distances. This is mainly due to the decreased broadside sensitivity that DAS suffers from when buried horizontally in the ground (that is when the upgoing wavefield (e.g. reflected wavefield) is perpendicular to the optical fibre). This is unlike borehole settings (e.g. zero-offset Vertical Seismic Profiling), where DAS has been widely adopted for many monitoring applications. Advancements in the field, like shaping the fibre to a helix, commonly known as helically wound fibre, allow better sensitivity for the reflections.

The promise of spatially dense seismic data over long distances is an attractive prospect for retrieving the local variations of near-surface properties. This is particularly valuable for areas impacted by induced seismicity, as is the case in the Groningen Province in the north of The Netherlands,  where near-surface properties, mostly composed of clays and peats, play an essential role on the amount of damage on the very near-surface and the structures built on it. Installing fibre-optic cables for passive and active measurements is valuable in this situation. We installed multiple cables containing different fibre configurations of straight and helically wound fibres, buried in a 2-m deep trench. The combination of the different fibre configurations allows us to obtain multi-component information. We observe differences in the amplitude and phase information, suggesting that these differences can be used for separating the different components of the wave motion. We also see that using enhanced backscatter fibres, reflection images can be obtained for the helically wound fibre as well as the straight fibre, despite the decreased broadside sensitivity for the latter.

How to cite: Al Hasani, M., Drijkoningen, G., and Wapenaar, K.: On the Multi-component Information of DAS for Near-Surface Seismic: A Pilot Field Experiment in the Groningen Area, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2563, 2022.

EGU22-3404 | Presentations | SM2.1 | Highlight

Fibre-optic observation of volcanic tremor through floating ice sheet resonance 

Andreas Fichtner, Sara Klaasen, Sölvi Thrastarson, Yesim Cubuk-Sabuncu, Patrick Paitz, and Kristin Jonsdottir

We report on the indirect observation of low-frequency tremor at Grimsvötn, Iceland, via resonance of an ice sheet, floating atop a volcanically heated subglacial lake.

Entirely covered by Europe’s largest glacier, Vatnajökull, Grimsvötn is among Iceland’s largest and most active volcanoes. In addition to flood hazards, ash clouds pose a threat to settlements and air traffic, as direct interactions between magma and meltwater cause Grímsvötn to erupt explosively. To study the seismicity and structure of Grimsvötn in detail, we deployed a 12.5 km long fibre-optic cable around and inside the caldera, which we used for Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) measurements in May 2021.

The experiment revealed a previously unknown level of seismicity, with nearly 2’000 earthquake detections in less than one month. Furthermore, the cable segment within the caldera recorded continuous and nearly monochromatic oscillations at 0.23 Hz. This corresponds to the expected fundamental-mode resonance frequency of flexural waves within the floating ice sheet, which effectively acts as a damped harmonic oscillator with Q around 15.

In spite of the ice sheet being affected by ambient noise at slightly lower frequencies, the resonance amplitude does not generally correlate with the level of ambient noise throughout southern Iceland. It follows that an additional and spatially localised forcing term is required to explain the observations. A linear inversion reveals that the forcing acts continuously, with periods of higher or lower activity alternating over time scales of a few days.

A plausible explanation for the additional resonance forcing is volcanic tremor, most likely related to geothermal activity, that shows surface expressions in the form of cauldrons and fumaroles along the caldera rim. Being largely below the instrument noise at channels outside the caldera, the ice sheet resonance acts as a magnifying glass that increases tremor amplitudes to an observable level, thereby providing a new and unconventional form of seismic volcano monitoring.

How to cite: Fichtner, A., Klaasen, S., Thrastarson, S., Cubuk-Sabuncu, Y., Paitz, P., and Jonsdottir, K.: Fibre-optic observation of volcanic tremor through floating ice sheet resonance, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3404, 2022.

EGU22-3728 | Presentations | SM2.1

Detecting earthen dam defects using seismic interferometry monitoring on Distributed Acoustic Sensing data 

Aurelien Mordret, Anna Stork, Sam Johansson, Anais Lavoue, Sophie Beaupretre, Romeo Courbis, Ari David, and Richard Lynch

Earthen dams and embankments are prone to internal erosion, their most significant source of failure. Standard monitoring techniques often measure erosion effects when they appear at the surface, reducing the potential response time to address the problem before failure. Through their integrative sensitivity along their propagation, seismic signals are well suited to assess mechanical changes in the bulk of a dam. Moreover, seismic velocities are strongly sensitive to porosity, pore pressure, and water saturation, physical properties that vary the most for internal erosion. Here, we used fiber optics and a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) array installed on an experimental dam with built-in defects to record the ambient seismic wavefield for one month while the dam reservoir is gradually filled up. The position and nature of the dam defects are unknown to us, to allow an actual blind-detection experiment. We computed cross-correlations between equidistant channels along the dam every 15 minutes and monitored the relative seismic velocity changes at each location for the whole month. The results show a strong correlation of the velocity changes with the water level in the reservoir at all locations along the dam. We also observe systematic deviations from the average velocity change trend. We interpret these anomalies as the effects of the built-in defects placed at different positions in the bulk of the dam. The careful analysis of the residual velocity changes allows us to hypothesize on the position and nature of the defects. 

How to cite: Mordret, A., Stork, A., Johansson, S., Lavoue, A., Beaupretre, S., Courbis, R., David, A., and Lynch, R.: Detecting earthen dam defects using seismic interferometry monitoring on Distributed Acoustic Sensing data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3728, 2022.

EGU22-3729 | Presentations | SM2.1

The Potential of DAS on Underwater Suspended Cables for Oceanic Current Monitoring and Failure Assessment of Fiber Optic Cables 

Daniel Mata, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Diego Mercerat, Diane Rivet, and Anthony Sladen

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) enables the use of existing underwater telecommunication cables as multi-sensor arrays. The great majority of underwater telecommunication cables are deployed from the water surface and the coupling between the cable and the seafloor is not fully controlled. This implies that there exists many poorly coupled cable segments less useful for seismological research. In particular, underwater cables include segments that are suspended in the water column across seafloor valleys or other bathymetry irregularities. However, it might be possible to use DAS along the suspended sections of underwater telecommunication cables for other purposes. A first one investigated here is the ability to monitor deep-ocean currents. It is common to observe that some particular sections of a cable oscillate with great amplitudes. These oscillations are commonly interpreted as due to vortex shedding induced by the currents. We investigate this hypothesis by estimating the oceanic current speeds from vortex frequencies measured in two underwater fiber optic cables located at Methoni, Greece, and another in Toulon, France. Our results in Greece are in agreement with in-situ historical measurements of seafloor currents while our estimations in Toulon are compatible with synchronous measurements of a nearby current meter. These different measurements therefore point to the possibility to exploit DAS measurements as a tool to monitor the activity of seafloor currents. A second possible application of DAS is to estimate how the cable is coupled to the seafloor, even in the absence of the strong oscillations associated to vortex shedding. For that, we have analyzed the spectral signature of the different cables. Some sections feature fundamental frequencies as expected from a theoretical model of in-plane vibration of hanging cables. By analyzing how the fundamental frequencies change along the cable, we are potentially inferring the contact points of the cable with the seafloor, which will promote fatigue of the cable and potential failure. This mapping of the coupling characteristics of the cable with the seafloor could also be useful to better interpret other DAS signals.

How to cite: Mata, D., Ampuero, J.-P., Mercerat, D., Rivet, D., and Sladen, A.: The Potential of DAS on Underwater Suspended Cables for Oceanic Current Monitoring and Failure Assessment of Fiber Optic Cables, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3729, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3729, 2022.

EGU22-4014 | Presentations | SM2.1

Near-field observations of snow-avalanches propagating over a fiber-optic array 

Patrick Paitz, Pascal Edme, Andreas Fichtner, Nadja Lindner, Betty Sovilla, and Fabian Walter

We present and evaluate array processing techniques and algorithms for the characterization of snow avalanche signals recorded with Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS).

Avalanche observations rely on comprehensive measurements of sudden and rapid snow mass movement that is hard to predict. Conventional avalanche sensors are limited to observations on or above the surface. Recently, seismic sensors have increased in their popularity for avalanche monitoring and characterization due to their avalanche detection and characterization capabilities. To date, however, seismic instrumentation in avalanche terrain is sparse, thereby limiting the spatial resolution significantly.

As an addition to conventional seismic instrumentation, we propose DAS to measure avalanche-induced ground motion. DAS is a technology using backscattered light along a fiber-optic cable to measure strain (-rate) along the fiber with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution - in our example with 2 m spatial sampling and a sampling rate of 1kHz.

We analyze DAS data recorded during winter 2020/2021 at the Valleé de la Sionne avalanche test site in the Swiss Alps, utilizing an existing 700 m long fiber-optic cable. Our observations include avalanches propagating on top of the buried cable, delivering near-field observations of avalanche-ground interactions. After analyzing the properties of near-field avalanche DAS recordings, we discuss and evaluate algorithms for (1) automatic avalanche detection, (2) avalanche surge propagation speed evaluation and (3) subsurface property estimation.

Our analysis highlights the complexity of near-field DAS data, as well as the suitability of DAS-based monitoring of avalanches and other hazardous granular flows. Moreover, the clear detectability of avalanche signals using existing fiber-optic infrastructure of telecommunication networks opens the opportunity for unrivalled warning capabilities in Alpine environments.

How to cite: Paitz, P., Edme, P., Fichtner, A., Lindner, N., Sovilla, B., and Walter, F.: Near-field observations of snow-avalanches propagating over a fiber-optic array, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4014, 2022.

EGU22-4478 | Presentations | SM2.1

Non-linear ground response triggered by volcanic explosions at Etna Volcano, Italy 

Philippe Jousset, Lucile Costes, Gilda Currenti, Benjamin Schwarz, Rosalba Napoli, Sergio Diaz, and Charlotte Krawczyk

Volcanic explosions produce energy that propagates both in the subsurface as seismic waves and in the atmosphere as acoustic waves. We analyse thousands of explosions which occurred at different craters at Etna volcano (Italy) in 2018 and 2019. We recorded signals from infrasound sensors, geophones (GPH), broadband seismometers (BB) and Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) with fibre optic cable. The instruments were deployed at Piano delle Concazze at about 2 to 2.5 km from the active craters, within (or onto) a ~300,000 m2 scoria layer deposited by recent volcanic eruptions. The DAS interrogator was setup inside the Pizzi Deneri Volcanic Observatory (~2800 m elevation). Infrasonic explosion records span over a large range of pressure amplitudes with the largest one reaching 130 Pa (peak to peak), with an energy of ca. 2.5x1011 J. In the DAS and the BB records, we find a 4-s long seismic “low frequency” signal (1-2 Hz) corresponding to the seismic waves, followed by a 2-s long “high-frequency” signal (16-21 Hz), induced by the infrasound pressure pulse. The infrasound sensors contain a 1-2 Hz infrasound pulse, but surprisingly no high frequency signal. At locations where the scoria layer is very thin or even non-existent, this high frequency signal is absent from both DAS strain-rate records and BB/GPH velocity seismograms. These observations suggest that the scoria layer is excited by the infrasound pressure pulse, leading to the resonance of lose material above more competent substratum. We relate the high frequency resonance to the layer thickness. Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave from jumps performed along the fibre optic cable provide the structure of the subsurface, and confirm thicknesses derived from the explosion analysis. As not all captured explosions led to the observation of these high frequency resonance, we systematically analyze the amplitudes of the incident pressure wave versus the recorded strain and find a non-linear relationship between the two. This non-linear behaviour is likely to be found at other explosive volcanoes. Furthermore, our observations suggest it might also be triggered by other atmospheric pressure sources, like thunderstorms. This analysis can lead to a better understanding of acoustic-to-seismic ground coupling and near-surface rock response from natural, but also anthropogenic sources, such as fireworks and gas explosions.

How to cite: Jousset, P., Costes, L., Currenti, G., Schwarz, B., Napoli, R., Diaz, S., and Krawczyk, C.: Non-linear ground response triggered by volcanic explosions at Etna Volcano, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4478, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4478, 2022.

EGU22-4583 | Presentations | SM2.1

Dynamic weakening in carbonate-built seismic faults: insights from laboratory experiments with fast and ultra-localized temperature measurements 

Stefano Aretusini, Arantzazu Nuñez Cascajero, Chiara Cornelio, Xabier Barrero Echevarria, Elena Spagnuolo, Alberto Tapetado, Carmen Vazquez, Massimo Cocco, and Giulio Di Toro

During earthquakes, seismic slip along faults is localized in < 1 cm-thick principal slipping zones. In such thin slipping zones, frictional heating induces a temperature increase which activates deformation processes and chemical reactions resulting in dramatic decrease of the fault strength (i.e., enhanced dynamic weakening) and, in a negative feedback loop, in the decrease of the frictional heating itself.

In the laboratory, temperature measurements in slipping zones are extremely challenging, especially at the fast slip rates and large slip displacements typical of natural earthquakes. Recently, we measured the temperature evolution in the slipping zone of simulated earthquakes at high acquisition rates (∼ kHz) and spatial resolutions (<< 1 mm2). To this end, we used optical fibres, which convey IR radiation from the hot rubbing surfaces to a two color pyrometer, equipped with photodetectors which convert the radiation into electric signals. The measured signals were calibrated into temperature and then synchronized with the mechanical data (e.g., slip rate, friction coefficient, shear stress) to relate the dynamic fault strength to the temperature evolution and eventually constrain the deformation processes and associated chemical reactions activated during seismic slip.

Here, we reproduce earthquake slip via rotary shear experiments performed on solid cylinders (= bare rock surfaces) and on gouge layers both made of 99.9% calcite. The applied effective normal stress is 20 MPa. Bare rock surfaces are slid for 20 m with a trapezoidal velocity function with a target slip rate of 6 m/s. Instead, the gouge layers are sheared imposing a trapezoidal (1 m/s target slip rate for 1 m displacement) and Yoffe (3.5 m/s peak slip rate, and 1.5 m displacement) velocity function. The temperature measured within the slipping zone, which in some experiments increases up to 1000 °C after few milliseconds from slip initiation, allow us to investigate the deformation mechanisms responsible for fault dynamic weakening over temporal (milliseconds) and spatial (contact areas << 1 mm2) scales which are impossible to detect with traditional techniques (i.e., thermocouples or thermal cameras).

Importantly, thanks to FE numerical simulations, these in-situ temperature measurements allow us to quantify the partitioning of the dissipated energy and power between frictional heating (temperature increase) and wear processes (e.g., grain comminution), to probe the effectiveness of other energy sinks (e.g., endothermic reactions, phase changes) that would buffer the temperature increase, and to determine the role of strain localization in controlling the temperature increase. The generalization of our experimental data and observations will contribute to shed light on the mechanics of carbonate-hosted earthquakes, a main hazard in the Mediterranean and other areas worldwide.

How to cite: Aretusini, S., Nuñez Cascajero, A., Cornelio, C., Barrero Echevarria, X., Spagnuolo, E., Tapetado, A., Vazquez, C., Cocco, M., and Di Toro, G.: Dynamic weakening in carbonate-built seismic faults: insights from laboratory experiments with fast and ultra-localized temperature measurements, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4583, 2022.

EGU22-4963 | Presentations | SM2.1

A real-time classification method for pipeline monitoring combining Distributed Acoustic Sensing and Distributed Temperature and Strain Sensing 

Camille Huynh, Camille Jestin, Clément Hibert, Jean-Philippe Malet, Vincent Lanticq, and Pierre Clément

Distributed Fiber Optic Systems (DFOSs) refer to an ensemble of innovative technology that turns an optical fiber into a vast network of hundreds to thousands equally spaced sensors. According to the nature of the sensor, one can be sensitive to acoustic vibration (Distributed Acoustic Sensing, DAS) or to strain and temperature variation (Distributed Temperature and Strain Sensing, DTSS). DAS systems are well suited to detect short-term events in contrast to DTSS systems, which are intended to prevent long-term events. A combination of these two systems appears to be a good way to prevent against most possible events that can appear along an infrastructure. Furthermore, DFOS systems allow the interrogation of long profiles with very dense spatial and temporal sampling. Handling such amounts of data then appears as a challenge when trying to identify a threat along the structure. Machine learning solutions then proves their relevance for robust, fast and efficient acoustical event classification.

The goal of our study is to develop a method to handle, in real time, acquired data from these two DFOSs, classify them according to the nature of their origin and trigger an alarm if required. We mainly focus on major threats that jeopardize the integrity of pipelines. Our database contains leaks, landslides, and third-party intrusion (footsteps, excavations, drillings, etc.) simulated and measured at FEBUS Optics test bench in South-West France. Water and air leaks were simulated using electrovalves of several diameters (1mm, 3mm and 5mm), and landslides with a plate whose inclination was controlled by 4 cylinders. These data were acquired under controlled conditions in a small-scale model of pipeline (around 20m long) along different fiber optic cables installed along the structure.

Our method relies on several tools. A Machine Learning algorithm called Random Forest is used to pre-classify the DAS signal. Our implementation of this algorithm works in flow for a real time event identification. For DTSS signal, a simple threshold is used to detect if a strain or temperature variation occurs. Both results are then gathered and analyzed using a decisional table to return a classification result. According to the potential threat represented by its identified class, the event is considered as dangerous or not. Using this method, we obtain good results with a good classification rate (threat/non-threat) of 93%, compared to 87% if the DAS is used without the DTSS. We have noticed that the combination of both devices enables a better classification, especially for landslides hard to detect with the DAS. This combination enables to dramatically reduce the part of undetected threats from 16% to 4%.

How to cite: Huynh, C., Jestin, C., Hibert, C., Malet, J.-P., Lanticq, V., and Clément, P.: A real-time classification method for pipeline monitoring combining Distributed Acoustic Sensing and Distributed Temperature and Strain Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4963, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4963, 2022.

EGU22-5327 | Presentations | SM2.1

HDAS (High-Fidelity Distributed Acoustic Sensing) as a monitoring tool during 2021 Cumbre Vieja eruption 

José Barrancos, Luca D'Auria, Germán Padilla, Javier Preciado-Garbayo, and Nemesio M. Pérez

La Palma is the second youngest and westernmost among Canary Island. Cumbre Vieja volcano formed in the last stage of the geological evolution of the island and had suffered eight volcanic eruptions over the previous 500 years. In 2017, two remarkable seismic swarms interrupted a seismic silence from the last eruption (Teneguía, 1971). Since then, nine additional seismic swarms have occurred at Cumbre Vieja volcano. On September 11th, 2021, seismic activity began to increase, and the depths of the earthquakes showed an upward migration. Finally, on September 19th, the eruption started after just a week of precursors.

During recent years, the seismic activity has been recorded by Red Sísmica Canaria (C7), composed of 6 seismic broadband stations, which was reinforced during the eruption by five additional broadband stations, three accelerometers and a seismic array consisting of 10 broadband stations.

Furthermore, as a result of a collaboration between INVOLCAN, ITER, CANALINK and Aragón Photonics Labs, it was possible to install, on October 19th, an HDAS (High-fidelity Distributed Acoustic Sensor). The HDAS was installed about 10 km from the eruptive vent and was connected to a submarine fibre optic cable directed toward Tenerife Island. Since then, the HDAS has been recording seismic with a temporal sampling rate of 100 Hz and a spatial sampling rate of 10m for a total length of 50 km using Raman Amplification. For more than two months, in addition to the intense volcanic tremor, the HDAS recorded thousands of earthquakes as well as regional and teleseismic events. On December 13th, 2021, after an intense paroxysmal phase with an eruptive column that reached 8 km in height, the volcanic tremor quickly decreased, and the eruption suddenly stopped. Only a weak volcano-tectonic seismicity and small amplitude long-period events were recorded in the next month.

This valuable dataset will provide a milestone for the development of techniques aimed at using DAS as a real-time volcano monitoring tool and studying the internal structure of active volcanoes.

How to cite: Barrancos, J., D'Auria, L., Padilla, G., Preciado-Garbayo, J., and Pérez, N. M.: HDAS (High-Fidelity Distributed Acoustic Sensing) as a monitoring tool during 2021 Cumbre Vieja eruption, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5327, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5327, 2022.

EGU22-5551 | Presentations | SM2.1

A showcase pilot of seismic campaign using Distributed Acoustic Sensing solutions 

Camille Jestin, Christophe Maisons, Aurélien Chérubini, Laure Duboeuf, and Jean-Claude Puech

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is a rapidly evolving technology that can turn a fibre optic cable into thousands of acoustic sensors. In this study, we propose to present a seismic survey conducted as a business showcase relying on a collaborative work supported by five partners: FEBUS Optics, RealTimeSeismic (RTS), Gallego Technic Geophysics (GTG), Petro LS and Well-SENSE. The project was carried out at a deep solution mining site developed for salt production, operated by KEMONE, and located nearby Montpellier (South of France).

The seismic campaign was based on two different cable deployments.

On the first hand, a Vertical Seismic Profile survey was conducted on borehole seismic measurements using two different fibre optic cables deployed in a 1800m deep vertical well. The first set of tests was performed along a Petro LS wireline cable including optical fibres. This deployment corresponds to a conventional wireline operation. The second set of data has been acquired along a FibreLine Intervention system (FLI) developed by WellSENSE. The deployment of the FLI system relies on the unspooling a bare optical fibre using a probe along a wellbore. This solution is single-use and sacrificial and can be left in the well at the end of the survey.

On another hand, a short 400m-surface 2D profile has been achieved along both a fibre optic cable and a set of STRYDE nodes deployed by GTG.

Fibre optic cables have been connected to FEBUS DAS interrogator to collect distributed acoustic measurements.  The seismic tests, performed in collaboration with GTG, have been achieved with basic “weight drops” (1T falling from 4m) for the checkshot surveys and with an "IVI Mark 4" 44,000-pound seismic vibrator for VSP shots at offset from wellhead reaching 865m. Acquired data have been analysed by RTS.

This work will describe the survey, present the results, and discuss the learnings in two ways:  the optimisation of acquisition setups and processing parameters to obtain the best exploitable results and seismic surveys perspectives and challenges using DAS technology.

How to cite: Jestin, C., Maisons, C., Chérubini, A., Duboeuf, L., and Puech, J.-C.: A showcase pilot of seismic campaign using Distributed Acoustic Sensing solutions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5551, 2022.

EGU22-5743 | Presentations | SM2.1

Making sense of urban DAS data with clustering of coherence-based array features 

Julius Grimm and Piero Poli

Seismic noise monitoring in urban areas can yield valuable information about near-surface structures and noise sources like traffic activity. Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is ideal for this task due to its dense spatial resolution and the abundance of existing fiber-optic cables below cities.
A 15 km long dark fiber below the city of Grenoble was transformed into a dense seismic antenna by connecting it to a Febus A1-R interrogator unit. The DAS system acquired data continuosly for 11 days with a sampling frequency of 250 Hz and a channel spacing of 19.2 m, resulting in a total of 782 channels. The cable runs through the entirety of the city, crossing below streets, tram tracks and a river. Various noise sources are visible on the raw strain-rate data. A local earthquake (1.3 MLv) was also recorded during the acquisition period.
To characterize the wavefield, the data is divided into smaller sub-windows and coherence matrices at different frequency bands are computed for each sub-window. Clustering is then performed directly on the covariance matrices, with the goal of identifying repeating sub-structures in the covariance matrices (e.g. localized repeating noise sources). Finding underlying patterns in the complex dataset helps us to better understand the spatio-temporal distribution of the occurring signals.

How to cite: Grimm, J. and Poli, P.: Making sense of urban DAS data with clustering of coherence-based array features, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5743, 2022.

EGU22-5952 | Presentations | SM2.1

Strombolian seismic activity characterisation using fibre-optic cable and distributed acoustic sensing 

Jean-Philippe Metaxian, Francesco Biagioli, Maurizio Ripepe, Eléonore Stutzmann, Pascal Bernard, Roberto Longo, Marie-Paule Bouin, and Corentin Caudron

Stromboli is an open-conduit volcano characterized by mild intermittent explosive activity that produces jets of gas and incandescent blocks. Explosions occur at a typical rate of 3-10 events per hour, VLP signals have dominant periods between 2 and 30 seconds. Seismic activity is also characterized by less energy short-period volcanic tremor related to the continuous out-bursting of small gas bubbles in the upper part of the magmatic column. The high rate of activity as well as the broadband frequency contents of emitted signals make Stromboli volcano an ideal site for testing new techniques of fibre-optic sensing.

In September 2020, approximately 1 km of fiber-optic cable was deployed on the Northeast flank of Stromboli volcano, together with several seismometers, to record the seismic signals radiated by the persistent Strombolian activity via both DAS and inertial-seismometers, and to compare their records.

The cable was buried manually about 30 cm deep over a relatively linear path at first and in a triangle-shaped array with 30-meters-long sides in the highest part of the deployment. The strain rate was recorded using a DAS interrogator Febus A1-R with a sampling frequency of 2000 Hz, a spatial interval of 2.4 m and a gauge length of 5m. Data were re-sampled at 200 Hz. A network of 22 nodes SmartSolo IGU-16HR 3C geophones (5 Hz) has been distributed over the fibre path. A Guralp digitizer equipped with a CMG CMG-40T 30 sec seismometer and an infrasound sensor were placed in the upper part of the path. The geolocation of the cable was obtained by performing kinematic GPS measurements with 2 Leica GR25 receivers. All equipment recorded simultaneously several hundreds of explosion quakes between September 20 and 23.

Data analysis provided the following main results:

  • DAS interrogator clearly recorded the numerous explosion-quakes which occurred during the experiment, as well as lower amplitude tremor and LP events.
  • DAS spectrum exhibits a lower resolution at long periods with a cut-off frequency of approximately 3 Hz.
  • VLP seismic events generated by Strombolian activity are identified only at a few DAS channels belonging to a specific portion of the path, which seems affected by local amplification. At these channels, they display waveforms similar to those sensed by the Güralp CMG-40T.
  • Comparison of DAS strain waveform to particle velocity recorded by co-located seismometers shows a perfect match in phase and a good agreement in amplitude.
  • Beamforming methods have been applied to nodes data located on the upper triangle and to strain rate data, both in the 3-5 Hz frequency band. Slightly different back-azimuths were obtained, values estimated via DAS point more to the southwest with respect to the crater area. Apparent velocities obtained with DAS recordings have lower values compared to those obtained with nodes.

How to cite: Metaxian, J.-P., Biagioli, F., Ripepe, M., Stutzmann, E., Bernard, P., Longo, R., Bouin, M.-P., and Caudron, C.: Strombolian seismic activity characterisation using fibre-optic cable and distributed acoustic sensing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5952, 2022.

EGU22-6580 | Presentations | SM2.1

Quantifying microseismic noise generation from coastal reflection of gravity waves using DAS 

Gauthier Guerin, Diane Rivet, Martijn van den Ende, Eléonore Stutzmann, Anthony Sladen, and Jean-Paul Ampuero

Secondary microseisms are the most energetic noise in continuous seismometer recordings, and they are generated by interactions between ocean waves. Coastal reflections of ocean waves leading to coastal microseismic sources are hard to estimate in various global numerical wave models, and independent quantification of these coastal sources through direct measurements can therefore greatly improve these models. Here, we exploit a 40 km long submarine optical fiber cable located offshore Toulon, France using Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS). We record both the amplitude and frequency of ocean gravity waves, as well as secondary microseisms caused by the interaction of gravity waves incident and reflected from the coast. By leveraging the spatially distributed nature of DAS measurements, additional fundamental information are recovered such as the velocity and azimuth of the waves. On average, 30\% of the gravity waves are reflected at the shore and lead to the generation of local secondary microseisms that manifest as Scholte waves. These local sources can give way to other sources depending on the characteristics of the swell, such as its azimuth or its strength. These sources represent the most energetic contribution to the secondary microseism recorded along the optical fiber, as well as on an onshore broadband station. Furthermore, we estimate the coastal reflection coefficient R$^2$ to be constant at around 0.07 for our 5-day time series. The use of DAS in an underwater environment provides a wealth of information on coastal reflection sources, reflection of gravity waves and new constraints for numerical models of microseismic noise.

How to cite: Guerin, G., Rivet, D., van den Ende, M., Stutzmann, E., Sladen, A., and Ampuero, J.-P.: Quantifying microseismic noise generation from coastal reflection of gravity waves using DAS, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6580, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6580, 2022.

EGU22-6976 | Presentations | SM2.1

Comparison between Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) and strain meter measurements at the Black Forest Observatory 

Jérôme Azzola, Nasim Karamzadeh Toularoud, Emmanuel Gaucher, Thomas Forbriger, Rudolf Widmer-Schnidrig, Felix Bögelspacher, Michael Frietsch, and Andeas Rietbrock

We present an original DAS measurement station, equipped with the Febus A1-R interrogator, which has been deployed at the Black Forest Observatory (Schiltach, Germany). The objective of this deployment is twofold. The first is to test the deployed fibre optic cables and to better characterise the recorded signals. The second is to define standards for the processing of these DAS measurements, with a view to using the equipment for passive seismic monitoring in the INSIDE project (supported by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, BMWi).

Testing sensors involving new acquisition technologies, such as instruments based on Distributed Fiber Optic Sensing (DFOS), is part of the observatory's goals, in order to assess, to maintain and to improve signal quality. Interestingly, reference geophysical instruments are also deployed on a permanent basis in this low seismic-noise environment. Our analyses thus benefit from the records of the observatory's measuring instruments, in particular a set of three strain meters recording along various azimuths. This configuration enables a unique comparison between strain meter and DAS measurements. In addition, an STS-2 seismometer (part of German Regional Seismic Network, GRSN) allows for additional comparisons.

These instruments provide a basis for a comparative analysis between the DAS records and the measurements of well-calibrated sensing devices (STS-2 sensor, strain meter array). Such a comparison is indeed essential to physically understand the measurements provided by the Febus A1-R interrogator and to characterise the coupling between the ground and the fiber, in various deployment configurations.

We present the experiment where we investigate several Fiber Optic Cable layouts, with currently our most successful setup involving loading a dedicated fiber with sandbags. We discuss different processing approaches, resulting in a considerable improvement of the fit between DAS and strain array acquisitions. The presented comparative analysis is based on the recordings of different earthquakes, including regional and teleseismic events.

How to cite: Azzola, J., Toularoud, N. K., Gaucher, E., Forbriger, T., Widmer-Schnidrig, R., Bögelspacher, F., Frietsch, M., and Rietbrock, A.: Comparison between Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) and strain meter measurements at the Black Forest Observatory, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6976, 2022.

EGU22-6984 | Presentations | SM2.1

Array signal processing on distributed acoustic sensing data: directivity effects in slowness space 

Sven Peter Näsholm, Kamran Iranpour, Andreas Wuestefeld, Ben Dando, Alan Baird, and Volker Oye

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) involves the transmission of laser pulses along a fiber-optic cable. These pulses are backscattered at fiber inhomogeneities and again detected by the same interrogator unit that emits the pulses. Elastic deformation along the fiber causes phase shifts in the backscattered laser pulses which are converted to spatially averaged strain measurements, typically at regular fiber intervals.

DAS systems provide the potential to employ array processing algorithms. However, there are certain differences between DAS and conventional sensors. The current paper is focused on taking these differences into account. While seismic sensors typically record the directional particle displacement, velocity, or acceleration, the DAS axial strain is inherently proportional to the spatial gradient of the axial cable displacement. DAS is therefore insensitive to broadside displacement, e.g., broadside P-waves. In classical delay-and-sum beamforming, the array response function is the far-field response on a horizontal slowness (or wavenumber) grid. However, for geometrically non-linear DAS layouts, the angle between wavefront and cable varies, requiring the analysis of a steered response that varies with the direction of arrival. This contrasts with the traditional array response function which is given in terms of slowness difference between arrival and steering.

This paper provides a framework for DAS steered response estimation accounting also for cable directivity and gauge-length averaging – hereby demonstrating the applicability of DAS in array seismology and to assess DAS design aspects. It bridges a gap between DAS and array theory frameworks and communities, facilitating increased employment of DAS as a seismic array.

How to cite: Näsholm, S. P., Iranpour, K., Wuestefeld, A., Dando, B., Baird, A., and Oye, V.: Array signal processing on distributed acoustic sensing data: directivity effects in slowness space, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6984, 2022.

EGU22-7153 | Presentations | SM2.1

MEGLIO: an experiment to record seismic waves on a commercial fiber optic cable through interferometry measures with an ultra stable laser. 

Andre Herrero, Davide Calonico, Francesco Piccolo, Francesco Carpentieri, Aladino Govoni, Lucia Margheriti, Maurizio Vassallo, Rita di Giovambattista, Salvatore Stramondo, Cecilia Clivati, Roberto Concas, Simone Donadello, Fabio Simone Priuli, Filippo Orio, and Andrea Romualdi

The experiment MEGLIO follows the seminal work of Marra et al. (2018) where the authors demonstrate the possibility to observe seismic waves on fiber optic cables over large distances. The measure was based on an interferometric technique using an ultra stable laser. In theory, this active measurement technique is compatible with a commercial operation on a fiber, i.e. the fiber does not need to be dark. In 2019, Open Fiber, the largest optic fiber infrastructure provider in Italy, has decided to test this new technology on its own commercial network on land.

A team of experts in the different fields has been gathered to achieve this goal : besides Open Fiber, Metallurgica Bresciana; INRiM, which initially developed the technique, for their expertise on laser and sensors; Bain & Company for the analysis and the processing of the data; INGV for the expertise in the seismology field and for the validation of the observations.

The first year has been dedicated to developing the sensors. In the meantime, a buried optic cable has been chosen in function of its length and the seismicity nearby. The best candidate was the fiber connecting the towns of Ascoli Piceno (Marche, Italy) and Teramo (Abruzzo, Italy) for a length of around 30 km. Although  this technique allows using cable lengths larger than 5.000 km, for this first test we have decided to keep the length short. Actually the cable is mainly buried underneath a road with medium traffic, passes across different bridges and viaducts, starts in the middle of a town and loops in the middle of another town. Thus we expected a strong anthropic noise on the data.

The measurement on the field started in mid June 2020 and the system was operational in early July. We also installed a seismic station at one end of the cable. During these first six months, we have compared the observations on the fiber with the Italian national seismic catalog and the worldwide catalog for the major events. We consider the first results a success. We have detected so far nearly all the seismic activity with magnitude larger than 2.5 for epicentral distance lesser than 50 km. Moreover, we have recorded large events in Mediterranean region and teleseisms. Finally we have recorded new and interesting noise signals. Collecting additional events will be helpful for a better characterization of the technique, its performances and for a statistical analysis.

How to cite: Herrero, A., Calonico, D., Piccolo, F., Carpentieri, F., Govoni, A., Margheriti, L., Vassallo, M., di Giovambattista, R., Stramondo, S., Clivati, C., Concas, R., Donadello, S., Priuli, F. S., Orio, F., and Romualdi, A.: MEGLIO: an experiment to record seismic waves on a commercial fiber optic cable through interferometry measures with an ultra stable laser., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7153, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7153, 2022.

EGU22-7182 | Presentations | SM2.1 | Highlight

Monitoring a submarine strike-slip fault, using a fiber optic strain cable 

Marc-Andre Gutscher, Jean-Yves Royer, David Graindorge, Shane Murphy, Frauke Klingelhoefer, Arnaud Gaillot, Chastity Aiken, Antonio Cattaneo, Giovanni Barreca, Lionel Quetel, Giorgio Riccobene, Salvatore Aurnia, Lucia Margheriti, Milena Moretti, Sebastian Krastel, Florian Petersen, Morelia Urlaub, Heidrun Kopp, Gilda Currenti, and Philippe Jousset

The goal of the ERC (European Research Council) funded project - FOCUS is to apply laser reflectometry on submarine fiber optic cables to detect deformation at the seafloor in real time using BOTDR (Brillouin Optical Time Domain Reflectometry). This technique is commonly used monitoring large-scale engineering infrastructures (e.g. - bridges, dams, pipelines, etc.) and can measure very small strains (<< 1 mm/m) at very large distances (10 - 200 km), but until now has never been used to study tectonic faults and deformation on the seafloor.

Here, we report that BOTDR measurements detected movement at the seafloor consistent with ≥1 cm dextral strike-slip on the North Alfeo fault, 25 km offshore Catania, Sicily over the past 10 months. In Oct. 2020 a dedicated 6-km long fiber-optic strain cable was connected to the INFN-LNS (Catania physics institute) cabled seafloor observatory at 2060 m depth and deployed across this submarine fault, thus providing continuous monitoring of seafloor deformation at a spatial resolution of 2 m. The laser observations indicate significant elongation (20 - 40 microstrain) at two fault crossings, with most of the movement occurring between 19 and 21 Nov. 2020. A network of 8 seafloor geodetic stations for direct path measurements was also deployed in Oct. 2020, on both sides of the fault to provide an independent measure of relative seafloor movements. These positioning data are being downloaded during ongoing oceanographic expeditions to the working area (Aug. 2021 R/V Tethys; Jan. 2022 R/V PourquoiPas) using an acoustic modem to communicate with the stations on the seafloor. An additional experiment was performed in Sept. 2021 using an ROV on the Fugro vessel Handin Tide, by weighing down unburied portions of the submarine cable with pellet bags and sandbags (~25kg each) spaced every 5m. The response was observed simultaneously by DAS (Distributed Acoustic Sensing) recordings using two DAS interrogators (a Febus and a Silixa). The strain caused by the bag deployments was observed using BOTDR and typically produced a 50 - 100 microstrain signal across the 120 meter-long segments which were weighed down. In Jan. 2022 during the FocusX2 marine expedition, 21 ocean bottom seismometers were deployed for 12-14 months, which together with 15 temporary land-stations as well as the existing network of permanent stations (both operated by INGV) will allow us to perform a regional land-sea passive seismological monitoring experiment.

How to cite: Gutscher, M.-A., Royer, J.-Y., Graindorge, D., Murphy, S., Klingelhoefer, F., Gaillot, A., Aiken, C., Cattaneo, A., Barreca, G., Quetel, L., Riccobene, G., Aurnia, S., Margheriti, L., Moretti, M., Krastel, S., Petersen, F., Urlaub, M., Kopp, H., Currenti, G., and Jousset, P.: Monitoring a submarine strike-slip fault, using a fiber optic strain cable, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7182, 2022.

EGU22-7203 | Presentations | SM2.1

Multiphase observations of a meteoroid in Iceland recorded over 40 km of telecommunications cables and a large-N network 

Ismael Vera Rodriguez, Torsten Dahm, Marius P. Isken, Toni Kraft, Oliver D. Lamb, Sin-Mei Wu, Sebastian Heimann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Christopher Wollin, Alan F. Baird, Andreas Wüstefeld, Sigríður Kristjánsdóttir, Kristín Jónsdóttir, Eva P. S. Eibl, Bettina P. Goertz-Allmann, Philippe Jousset, Volker Oye, and Anne Obermann

On July 2, 2021, around 22:44 CET, a meteoroid was observed crossing the sky near Lake Thingvallavatn east of Reykjavik in Iceland. During this event, a large-N seismic network consisting of 500, 3-component geophones was monitoring local seismicity associated with the Hengill geothermal field southwest of the lake.  In addition to the large-N network, two fiber optic telecommunication cables, covering a total length of more than 40 km, were connected to distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) interrogation units. The systems were deployed under the frame of the DEEPEN collaboration project between the Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETHZ), the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), NORSAR, and Iceland Geo-survey (ISOR). Both the large-N and the DAS recordings display multiple trains of infrasound arrivals from the meteoroid that coupled to the surface of the earth at the locations of the sensors. In particular, three strong phases and multiple other weaker arrivals can be identified in the DAS data.

Fitting each of the strong phases assuming point sources (i.e., fragmentations) generates travel time residuals on the order of several seconds, resulting in an unsatisfactory explanation of the observations. On the other hand, inverting the arrival times for three independent hypersonic-trajectories generating Mach cone waves reduces travel time residuals to well under 0.5 s for each arrival. However, whereas the 1st arrival is well constrained by more than 900 travel times from the large-N, DAS and additional seismic stations distributed over the Reykjanes peninsula, the 2nd and 3rd arrivals are mainly constrained by DAS observations near Lake Thingvallavatn. The less well-constrained, latter trajectories show a weak agreement with the trajectory of the first arrival. Currently, neither the multi-Mach-cone model nor the multi-fragmentation model explain all our observations satisfactorily. Thus, traditional models for interpreting meteoroid observations appear unsuitable to explain the combination of phase arrivals in the large-N network and DAS data consistently.

How to cite: Vera Rodriguez, I., Dahm, T., Isken, M. P., Kraft, T., Lamb, O. D., Wu, S.-M., Heimann, S., Sanchez-Pastor, P., Wollin, C., Baird, A. F., Wüstefeld, A., Kristjánsdóttir, S., Jónsdóttir, K., Eibl, E. P. S., Goertz-Allmann, B. P., Jousset, P., Oye, V., and Obermann, A.: Multiphase observations of a meteoroid in Iceland recorded over 40 km of telecommunications cables and a large-N network, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7203, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7203, 2022.

EGU22-7311 | Presentations | SM2.1

Calibration and repositioning of an optical fibre cable from acoustic noise obtained by DAS technology 

Lucas Papotto, Benoit DeCacqueray, and Diane Rivet

DAS (Distributed Acoustic Sensing) turns fibre optic cables used for telecommunications into multi-sensor antenna arrays. This technology makes it possible to detect an acoustic signal from a natural source such as cetacean or micro-earthquakes, or a man-made source by measuring the deformation of the cable. At sea, the coupling between the optical fibre and the ground on which it rests, as well as the calibration of the cable, is a critical point when the configuration of the cable is unknown. Is the fibre buried or suspended? What is the depth of the sensor being studied? What impact do these parameters have on the signal? The answers to these questions have an impact on the quality of the results obtained, the location of sources - seismic or acoustic - and the characterisation of the amplitude of signals are examples of this. Here, a first approach to study this calibration is proposed. Acoustic noise generated by passing ships in the vicinity of a 42km long optical fibre off Toulon, south-east France, is used to obtain signals for which the position and the signal of the source are known. Then, the synthetic and theoretical signal representing the ship's passage is modelled (3D model, AIS Long/Lat coordinates and depth, propagation speed in water c₀ = 1530m/s). This simulation allows us to compare the real and synthetic signals, in order to make assumptions about the actual cable configuration. We compare the signals through beamforming, f-k diagram and time-frequency diagram in particular. The grid search approach allowed us to determine the new position or orientation of a portion of the antenna. This new position is then evaluated from the signals of different vessels.

How to cite: Papotto, L., DeCacqueray, B., and Rivet, D.: Calibration and repositioning of an optical fibre cable from acoustic noise obtained by DAS technology, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7311, 2022.

EGU22-7742 | Presentations | SM2.1

Strain evolution on a submarine cable during the 2020-2021 Etna eruption 

Shane Murphy, Pierre Garreau, Mimmo Palano, Stephan Ker, Lionel Quetel, Philippe Jousset, Giorgio Riccobene, Salvatore Aurnia, Gilda Currenti, and Marc-Andre Gutscher

On the 13th December 2020, a Strombolian eruption occurred on Mount Etna. We present a study of the temporal and spatial variation of strain measured at the underwater base of volcano during this event. 

As part of the FOCUS project, a BOTDR (Brillouin Optical Time Domain Reflectometry) interrogator has been connected to the INFN-LNS ( Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare - Laboratori Nazionali del Sud) fibre optic cable that extends from the port of Catania 25km offshore to TTS (Test Site South) in a water depth of 2km. This interrogator has been continuously recording the relative strain changes at 2m spacing along the length of the cable every 2 hrs since May 2020. 

On preliminary analysis, a change in strain is observed at the around the time of the eruption, however this variation occurs close to the shore where seasonal variations in water temperatures are in the order of 5°C. As Brillouin frequency shifts are caused by both temperature and strain variations, it is necessary to remove this effect. To do so, numerical simulations of seasonal sea temperature specific to offshore Catania have used to estimate the change in temperature along the cable. This temperature change is then converted to a Brillouin frequency shift and removed from the frequency shift recorded by the interrogator before being converted to relative strain measurements. This processing produces a strain signature that is consistent with deformation observed by nearby geodetic stations on land.

How to cite: Murphy, S., Garreau, P., Palano, M., Ker, S., Quetel, L., Jousset, P., Riccobene, G., Aurnia, S., Currenti, G., and Gutscher, M.-A.: Strain evolution on a submarine cable during the 2020-2021 Etna eruption, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7742, 2022.

EGU22-8113 | Presentations | SM2.1

Exploration of Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) data-space using a trans-dimensional algorithm, for locating geothermal induced microseismicity 

Nicola Piana Agostinetti, Emanuele Bozzi, Alberto Villa, and Gilberto Saccorotti

Distributed Acoustic sensing (DAS) data have been widely recognised as the next generation of  seismic data for applied geophysics, given the ultra-high spatial resolution achieved. DAS data are recorded along a fiber optic cable at pre-defined distances (called “channels”, generally with 1-10 meters spacing). DAS data have been benchmarked to standard seismic data (e.g. geophones) for tasks related to both exploration and monitoring of georesources.

The analysis of DAS data has to face two key-issues: the amount of data available and their “directionality”. First, the huge amount of data recorded, e.g. in monitoring activities related to georesources exploitation, can not be easily handled with standard seismic workflow, given the spatial and temporal sampling (for example, manual picking of P-wave arrivals for 10 000 channels is not feasible). Moreover, standard seismic workflow have been generally developed for “sparse" network of sensors, i.e. for punctual measurements, without considering the possibility of recording the quasi-continuous seismic wavefield along a km-long cable. With the term “directionality" we mean the ability of the DAS data to record horizontal strain-rate only in the direction of the fiber optic cable. This can be seen as a measure of a single horizontal component in a standard seismometer. Obviously, standard seismic workflow have not been developed to work correctly for a network of seismometers with a unique horizontal component, oriented with variable azimuth from one seismometer to the other. More important, “directionality” can easily bias the recognition of the seismic phase arriving at the channel, which could be, based on the cable azimuth and the seismic noise level, a P-wave or an S-wave. 

We developed a novel application for exploring DAS data-space in a way that: (1) data are automatically down weighted with the distance from the event source; (2) recorded phases are associated to P- or S- waves with a probabilistic approach, without pre-defined phase identification; and (3) the presence of outliers is also statistically considered, each phase being potentially a converted/refracted wave to be discarded. Our methodology makes use of a trans-dimensional algorithm, for selecting relevant weights with distance. Thus, all inferences in the data-space are fully data-driven, without imposing additional constrains from the seismologist.

How to cite: Piana Agostinetti, N., Bozzi, E., Villa, A., and Saccorotti, G.: Exploration of Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) data-space using a trans-dimensional algorithm, for locating geothermal induced microseismicity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8113, 2022.

EGU22-8294 | Presentations | SM2.1 | Highlight

Real-Time Magnitude Determination and Ground Motion Prediction using Optical Fiber Distributed Acoustic Sensing for Earthquake Early Warning 

Itzhak Lior, Diane Rivet, Anthony Sladen, Diego Mercerat, and Jean-Paul Ampuero

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is ideally suited for the challenges of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW). These distributed measurements allow for robust discrimination between earthquakes and noise, and remote recordings at hard to reach places, such as offshore, close to the hypocenters of most of the largest earthquakes on Earth. In this study, we propose the first application of DAS for EEW. We present a framework for real-time strain-rate to ground accelerations conversion, magnitude estimation and ground shaking prediction. The conversion is applied using the local slant-stack transform, adapted for real-time applications. Since currently, DAS earthquake datasets are limited to low-to-medium magnitudes, an empirical magnitude estimation approach is not feasible. To estimate the magnitude, we derive an Omega-squared-model based theoretical description for acceleration root-mean-squares (rms), a measure that can be calculated in the time-domain. Finally, peak ground motions are predicted via ground motion prediction equation that are derived using the same theoretical model, thus constituting a self-consistent EEW scheme. The method is validated using a composite dataset of earthquakes from different tectonic settings up to a magnitude of 5.7. Being theoretical, the presented approach is readily applicable to any DAS array in any seismic region and allows for continuous updating of magnitude and ground shaking predictions with time. Applying this method to optical fibers deployed near on-land and underwater faults could be decisive in the performance of EEW systems, significantly improving earthquake warning times and allowing for better preparedness for intense shaking.

How to cite: Lior, I., Rivet, D., Sladen, A., Mercerat, D., and Ampuero, J.-P.: Real-Time Magnitude Determination and Ground Motion Prediction using Optical Fiber Distributed Acoustic Sensing for Earthquake Early Warning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8294, 2022.

EGU22-8414 | Presentations | SM2.1

Towards microseismic moment tensor inversion in boreholes with DAS 

Katinka Tuinstra, Federica Lanza, Andreas Fichtner, Andrea Zunino, Francesco Grigoli, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, and Stefan Wiemer

We present preliminary results on a moment tensor inversion workflow for Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS). It makes use of a fast-marching Eikonal solver and synthetically modeled data. The study specifically focuses on borehole settings for geothermal sites. Distributed Acoustic Sensing measures the wavefield with high spatial and temporal resolution. In borehole settings, individual DAS traces generally prove to be noisier than co-located geophones, whereas the densely spaced DAS shot-gathers show features that would have otherwise been missed by the commonly more sparsely distributed geophone chains. For example, the coherency in the DAS records shows the polarity reversals of the arriving wavefield in great detail, which can help constrain the moment tensor of the seismic source. The synthetic tests encompass different source types and source positions relative to the deployed fiber to assess moment tensor resolvability. Further tests include the addition of a three-component seismometer at different positions to investigate an optimal network configuration, as well as various noise conditions to mimic real data. The synthetic tests are tailored to prepare for the data from future microseismicity monitoring with DAS in the conditions of the Utah FORGE geothermal test site, Utah, USA. The proposed method aims at improving amplitude-based moment tensor inversion for DAS deployed in downhole or underground lab contexts.

How to cite: Tuinstra, K., Lanza, F., Fichtner, A., Zunino, A., Grigoli, F., Rinaldi, A. P., and Wiemer, S.: Towards microseismic moment tensor inversion in boreholes with DAS, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8414, 2022.

EGU22-8664 | Presentations | SM2.1

Seismic Exploration and monitoring of geothermal reservoirs usiNg distributed fibre optic Sensing - the joint project SENSE 

CharLotte Krawczyk, Leila Ehsaniezhad, Christopher Wollin, Johannes Hart, and Martin Lipus

For a successful operation of energy or resources use in the subsurface, exploration for potential reservoir or storage horizons, monitoring of structural health and control of induced seismic unrest are essential both from a technical and a socio-economic perspective.  Furthermore, large-scale seismic surveys in densely populated areas are difficult to carry out due to the effort required to install sources and receivers and are associated with high financial and logistical costs.  Within the joint project SENSE*, a seismic exploration and monitoring approach is tested, which is based on fibre-optic sensing in urban areas.

Besides the further development of sensing devices, the monitoring of borehole operations as well as the development of processing workflows form central parts of the joint activities. In addition, the seismic wave field was recorded and the localisation of the cables was tested along existing telecommunication cables in Berlin. Further testing of measuring conditions in an urban environment was also conducted along an optic fibre separately laid out in an accessible heating tunnel.

We suggest a workflow for virtual shot gather extraction (e.g., band pass filtering, tapering, whitening, removal of poor traces before and after cross-correlation, stacking), that is finally including a coherence-based approach.  The picking of dispersion curves in the 1-7 Hz frequency range and inversion yield a shear wave velocity model for the subsurface down to a. 300 m depth.  Several velocity interfaces are evident, and a densely staggered zone appears between 220-270 m depth.  From lab measurements a distributed backscatter measurement in OTDR mode shows that high reflections and moderate loss at connectors can be achieved in a several hundred m distance.  Depending on drilling campaign progress, we will also present first results gained during the borehole experiment running until February 2022.

* The SENSE Research Group includes in addition to the authors of this abstract Andre Kloth and Sascha Liehr (DiGOS), Katerina Krebber and Masoud Zabihi (BAM), Bernd Weber (gempa), and Thomas Reinsch (IEG).

How to cite: Krawczyk, C., Ehsaniezhad, L., Wollin, C., Hart, J., and Lipus, M.: Seismic Exploration and monitoring of geothermal reservoirs usiNg distributed fibre optic Sensing - the joint project SENSE, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8664, 2022.

EGU22-8787 | Presentations | SM2.1

PSD analysis and seismic event detectability of Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) mesurements from several monitoring sites 

Nasim Karamzadeh Toularoud, Jérôme Azzola, Emmanuel Gaucher, Thomas Forbriger, Rudolf Widmer-Schnidrig, Felix Bögelspacher, Michael Frietsch, and Andreas Rietbrock

High spatial and temporal resolution of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) measurements makes them very attractive in different applications in seismology, such as seismic noise analysis (e.g. Bahavar et al 2020, Spica et al 2020) and seismic event detection (e.g. Ajo-Franklin et al 2019, Fernandez Ruiz 2020, Jousset 2020). The quantity measured by a DAS is strain or strain rate of an optic fiber cable, which is related to the spatial gradient of displacement and velocity that is usually measured by single point seismometers. The amplitude (and signal to noise ratio, SNR) and frequency resolutions of DAS recordings depend on spatial and temporal acquisition parameters, such as i.e. gauge-length (GL) and derivative time (DT), the latter being of importance only if the device records the strain rate.

In this study, our aims have been to investigate, experimentally, how to adapt the averaging parameters such as GL and DT to gain sensitivity in frequency bands of interests, and to investigate the seismic event detection capability of DAS data under specific set up. We recorded samples of DAS raw data, over a few hours at the German Black Forest Observatory (BFO) and in Sardinia, Italy.  We studied the spectral characteristics of strain and strain rate converted from DAS raw data, to analyze the sensitivity of DAS measurements to GL and DT. The power spectral densities are compared with the strain meter recordings at BFO site as a benchmark, which is recorded using the strain-meter arrays measuring horizontal strain in three different directions independently from the DAS (For details about the DAS measurement station at BFO see Azzola et al.  EGU 2022). We concluded about the lower limit of the DAS noise level that is achievable with employing different acquisition parameters. Accordingly, we applied suitable parameters for continuous strain-rate data acquisition at another experimental site in Georgia, which is related to the DAMAST (Dams and Seismicity) project.  

During the acquisition time periods at BFO and in Georgia, the visibility of local, regional and teleseismic events on the DAS data has been investigated. At both sites, a broadband seismometer is continuously operating, and can be considered as a reference to evaluate the event detection capability of the DAS recordings taking into account the monitoring set-up, i.e. cable types,  cable coupling to the ground, directional sensitivity and acquisition parameters. In addition, at BFO the DAS seismic event detection capability is evaluated comparing with the strain-meter array. Examples of detected seismic events by DAS are discussed, in terms of achievable SNR for each frequency content and comparison with the seismometers and strain-meter array.

How to cite: Karamzadeh Toularoud, N., Azzola, J., Gaucher, E., Forbriger, T., Widmer-Schnidrig, R., Bögelspacher, F., Frietsch, M., and Rietbrock, A.: PSD analysis and seismic event detectability of Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) mesurements from several monitoring sites, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8787, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8787, 2022.

EGU22-10322 | Presentations | SM2.1

Strain accumulation along a 21km long optic fibre during a seismic crisis in Iceland, 2020 

Christopher Wollin, Philippe Jousset, Thomas Reinsch, Martin Lipus, and Charlotte Krawczyk

Slow slip plays an important role in accommodating plate motion along plate boundaries throughout the world. Further understanding of the interplay between aseismic and seismic slip has gained particular attention as it is crucial for the assessment of seismic risk. A wide range of instruments and acquisition techniques exist to quantify tectonic deformation which spans multiple orders of magnitude in duration as well as spatial extend. For example, seismometers acquire dense temporal data, however are sparsely deployed, leading to spatial aliasing. As opposite, remote sensing techniques have wide aperture but rather crude temporal resolution and accuracy (mm-range). In selected areas, strain is continuously measured with laser or borehole strainmeters.
In this contribution, we investigate the distribution of permanent strain along a telecommunication optic fibre on the Reykjanes Peninsula, South West Iceland. Continuous strain-rate was recorded via DAS (Distributed Acoustic Sensing) over a period of six months during the recent unrest of the Svartsengi volcano which began in January 2020. The interrogated fibre connects the town of Gridavik with the Svartsengi geothermal power plant and was patched to a second fibre leading to the western most tip of the Reykjanes Peninsula. It is approximately between 10 and 20km west of the active volcanic area which produced abundant local seismicity as well as surface uplift and subsidence in areas crossed with the optical fiber. The fibre was installed in a trench at less than one meter depth and consists of two roughly straight segments of 7 and 14km length. Whereas the longer segment trends WSW parallel to the strike of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge at this geographic height, the shorter segment trends NEN and thus almost coincides with the maximum compressive stress axis of the region.
Inspection of the spatio-temporal strain-rate records after the occurrence of local earthquakes indicates the accumulation of compressive as well as extensive strain in short fibre sections of a few dozen meters which could correlate with local geologic features like faults or dykes. This holds for events of M~2.5 and fibre segments in epicentral distances of more than 20km. Preliminary results regarding the total deformation of the fibre as response to an individual seismic event show a distinct behaviour for differently oriented fibre segments correlating with the overall stress regime, i.e. shortening in the order of some dozen nanometers in the direction of SHmax. Unfortunately, recordings of the two largest intermediate M>=4.8 events indicate saturation of the recording system or loss of ground coupling thus preventing a meaningful interpretation of their effect on permanent surface motion. 
Perspectively, our efforts aim at investigating the feasibility of distributed optical strain-rate measurements along telecommunication infrastructure to track locally accumulated strain.

How to cite: Wollin, C., Jousset, P., Reinsch, T., Lipus, M., and Krawczyk, C.: Strain accumulation along a 21km long optic fibre during a seismic crisis in Iceland, 2020, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10322, 2022.

EGU22-10574 | Presentations | SM2.1

Innovative high resolution optical geophysical instruments at the termination of long fibers: first results from the Les Saintes optical ocean bottom seismometer, and from the Stromboli optical strainmeter 

Pascal Bernard, Guy Plantier, Philippe Ménard, Yann Hello, Guillaume Savaton, Jean-Philippe Metaxian, Maurizio Ripepe, Marie-Paule Bouin, Frederick Boudin, Romain Feron, Sébastien Deroussi, and Roberto Moretti and the optic-OBS-strain-2022 team

In June 2022, in the frame of the PREST interreg Caraïbe project, we installed an optical OBS offshore the Les Saintes archipelago (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles), at the termination of a 5.5 km long optic cable buried in the sea floor and landing in Terre-de-Bas island (FIBROSAINTES campaign: Antea vessel from the FOF, plow from GEOAZUR). This innovative seismometer, developped in the last decade by ESEO, is based on Fabry-Perot (FP) interferometry, tracking at high resolution (rms 30 pm) the displacement of the mobile mass of a 10 Hz, 3 component, purely mechanical geophone (no electronics nor feed-back). This optically cabled OBS is the marine version of the optical seismometer installed at the top of La Soufrière volcano of Guadeloupe, in 2019, at the termination of a 1.5 km long fiber (HIPERSIS ANR project). Both seismometers are telemetered in real-time to the Guadeloupe Observatory (IPGP/OVSG). The optical seismometer, located at a water depth of 43 m near the edge of the immersed reef, is aimed at improving the location of the swarm-like seismicity which still persists after the Les Saintes 2004, M6.3 normal fault earthquake. The considerable advantage of such a purely optical submarine sensor over commercial, electric ones is that its robustness, due to the absence of electrical component, guarantees a very low probability of failure, and thus significantly reduces the costs of maintenance. In May 2022, an optical pressiometer and an optical hydrostatic tiltmeter designed and constructed by ENS shoud be installed offshore and connected to the long fiber, next to the optical OBS.

Based on the same FP interrogator, ESEO and IPGP recently developped a high resolution fiber strainmeter, the sensing part being a 5 m long fiber, to be buried or cemented to the ground. A prototype has been installed mid-September 2021 on the Stromboli volcano, in the frame of the MONIDAS (ANR) and LOFIGH (Labex Univearth, Univ. Paris) projects. The interrogator was located in the old volcanological observatory, downslope, and the optical sensors, at 500 m altitude, were plugged at the end of a 3 km optic cable. They consist of three fibers, 5 m long each, buried 50 cm into the ground. Their different orientation allowed to retrieve the complete local strain field. The four weeks of continuous operation clearly recorded the dynamic strain from the frequent ordinary summital explosion ( several per hour), and, most importantly, the major explosion of the 6th of October (only a few per year). The records show a clear precursory signal, starting 120s before this explosion, corresponding to a transient compression, oriented in the crater azimuth, peaking at 0.9 microstrain  10 s before the explosion.

These two successfull installations of optical instruments open promising perspectives for the seismic and strain real-time monitoring in many sites, offshore, on volcanoes, and more generally in any site, natural or industrial, presenting harsh environmental conditions, where commercial, electrical sensors are difficult and/or costly to install and to maintain, or simply cannot be operated.

How to cite: Bernard, P., Plantier, G., Ménard, P., Hello, Y., Savaton, G., Metaxian, J.-P., Ripepe, M., Bouin, M.-P., Boudin, F., Feron, R., Deroussi, S., and Moretti, R. and the optic-OBS-strain-2022 team: Innovative high resolution optical geophysical instruments at the termination of long fibers: first results from the Les Saintes optical ocean bottom seismometer, and from the Stromboli optical strainmeter, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10574, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10574, 2022.

EGU22-11311 | Presentations | SM2.1

Overcoming limitations of seismic monitoring using fibre-optic distributed acoustic sensing 

Regina Maaß, Sven Schippkus, Céline Hadziioannou, Benjamin Schwarz, Charlotte Krawczyk, and Philippe Jousset

Seismic monitoring refers to the measurement of time-lapse changes of seismic wave velocities and is a frequently used technique to detect dynamic changes in the Earth‘s crust. Its applications include a broad range of topics, such as natural hazard assessment and structural health monitoring. To obtain reliable measurements, results are usually stacked over time. Thereby, temporal resolution is lost, which makes the measurement less sensitive to short-term environmental processes. Another problem is that conventional datasets often lack spatial density and velocity changes can only be attributed to large areas. Recently, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has gained a lot of attention as a way to achieve high spatial resolution at low cost. DAS is based on Rayleigh-scattering of photons within an optical fibre. Because measurements can be taken every few meters along the cable, the fibre is turned into a large seismic array that provides information about the Earth’s crust at unprecedented resolution.

In our study, we explore the potential of DAS for monitoring studies. Specifically, we investigate how spatial stacking of DAS traces affects the measurements of velocity variations. We use data recorded by a 21-km-long dark fibre located on Reykjanes Pensinsula, Iceland. The cable is sampled with a channel spacing of 4 meters. We analyze the energy of the oceans microseism continuously recorded between March and September 2020. At first, we stack adjacent traces on the fibre in space. We then cross correlate the stacks to obtain approximations of the Green’s functions between different DAS-channels. By measuring changes in the coda waveform of the extracted seismograms, velocity variations can be inferred. Our analysis shows that spatial stacking improves the reliability of our measurements considerably. Because of that, less temporal stacking is required and the time resolution of our measurements can be increased. In addition, the enhancement of the data quality helps resolve velocity variations in space, allowing us to observe variations propagating along the cable over time. These velocity changes are likely linked to magmatic intrusions associated with a series of repeated uplifts on the Peninsula. Our results highlight the potential of DAS for improving the localization capabilities and accuracy of seismic monitoring studies.

How to cite: Maaß, R., Schippkus, S., Hadziioannou, C., Schwarz, B., Krawczyk, C., and Jousset, P.: Overcoming limitations of seismic monitoring using fibre-optic distributed acoustic sensing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11311, 2022.

EGU22-11508 | Presentations | SM2.1 | Highlight

Building a new type of seafloor observatory on submarine telecom fiber optic cables in Chile 

Diane Rivet, Sergio Barrientos, Rodrigo Sánchez-Olavarría, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Itzhak Lior, Jose-Antonio Bustamente Prado, and German-Alberto Villarroel Opazo

In most subduction zones, a great portion of seismicity is located offshore, away from permanent onland seismic networks. Chile is not the exception; since the upgraded seismic observation system began operating in 2013, 35% of the ~7000 earthquakes with M≥3 recorded yearly were located offshore. Most importantly, the epicenters of the largest earthquakes (M>7.5) from 2014 to 2016 were located offshore as well.

The Chilean national seismic network is mainly composed of coastal and inland stations, except for two stations located on oceanic islands, Rapa Nui (Easter Island) and Juan Fernandez archipelago. This station configuration makes it difficult to observe in sufficient detail the lower-magnitude seismicity at the nucleation points of large events. Moreover, the lack of seafloor stations limits the efficiency of earthquake early warning systems during offshore events. These challenges could be overcome by permanently instrumenting existing submarine telecom cables with Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS).

Thanks to GTD, a private telecommunications company that owns a 3500-km-long network of marine fiber optic cables with twelve landing points in Chile (Prat project), from Arica (~ 18⁰S) to Puerto Montt (~ 41⁰S), we conducted the POST (Submarine Earthquake Observation Project in Spanish) DAS experiment on the northern leg of the Concón landing site of the Prat cable. This experiment, one of the first to be conducted on a commercial undersea infrastructure in a very seismically active region, was carried out from October 28 to December 3, 2021. Based on the longitudinal strain-rate data measured along 150 km of cable with a spatial resolution of 4 meters and a temporal sampling of 125 Hz, we present preliminary results of analyses to assess the possibility of building a new type of permanent, real-time and distributed seafloor observatory for continuous monitoring of active faults and earthquake early warning systems.

How to cite: Rivet, D., Barrientos, S., Sánchez-Olavarría, R., Ampuero, J.-P., Lior, I., Bustamente Prado, J.-A., and Villarroel Opazo, G.-A.: Building a new type of seafloor observatory on submarine telecom fiber optic cables in Chile, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11508, 2022.

EGU22-11599 | Presentations | SM2.1

Comparing two fiber-optic sensing systems: Distributed Acoustic Sensing and Direct Transmission 

Daniel Bowden, Andreas Fichtner, Thomas Nikas, Adonis Bogris, Konstantinos Lentas, Christos Simos, Krystyna Smolinski, Iraklis Simos, and Nikolaos Melis

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) systems have gained popularity in recent years due to the dense spatial coverage of strain observations; with one fiber and one interrogator researchers can have access to thousands of strain or strain-rate observations over a region. DAS systems have a limited range, however, with usual experiments being on the order of 10’s of kilometers, owing to their reliance on weakly backscattered light. In contrast, systems that transmit light through a fiber and measure signals on the other end (or looped back) can traverse significantly longer distances (e.g., Marra et. al 2018, Zhan et. al 2021, Bogris et. al 2021), and have the added advantages of being potentially cheaper and potentially operating in parallel with active telecommunications purposes. The disadvantage of such transmission systems is that only a single measurement of strain along the entire distance is given.

During September - October 2021, we operated examples of both systems side-by-side using telecommunications fibers underneath North Athens, Greece, in collaboration with the OTE telecommunications provider. Several earthquakes were detected by both systems, and we compare observations from both. The DAS system is a Silixa iDAS Interrogator measuring strain-rate. The newly designed transmission system relies on interferometric use of microwave frequency dissemination; signals sent along the fiber and back in a closed loop are compared to what was sent to measure phase differences (Bogris et. al 2021). We find that both systems are successful in sensing earthquakes and agree remarkably well when DAS signals are integrated over the length of the cable to properly mimic the transmission observations.

The direct transmission system, however, may not be as intuitive to interpret as an integral of displacement ground motions along the fiber. We discuss both theoretical and data-driven examples of how the observed phases depend on the curvature of a given length of fiber, and describe how asymmetries in the fiber’s index of refraction play a role in producing observed signals. Such an understanding is crucial if one is to properly interpret the signals from such a system (e.g., especially very long trans-oceanic cables). Given a full theoretical framework, we also discuss a strategy for seismic tomography given such a system: with a very long fiber, the spatial sensitivity should evolve over time as seismic signals reach different sections.

How to cite: Bowden, D., Fichtner, A., Nikas, T., Bogris, A., Lentas, K., Simos, C., Smolinski, K., Simos, I., and Melis, N.: Comparing two fiber-optic sensing systems: Distributed Acoustic Sensing and Direct Transmission, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11599, 2022.

EGU22-11864 | Presentations | SM2.1

Distributed Acoustic Sensing in the Athens Metropolitan Area: Preliminary Results 

Krystyna T. Smolinski, Daniel C. Bowden, Konstantinos Lentas, Nikolaos S. Melis, Christos Simos, Adonis Bogris, Iraklis Simos, Thomas Nikas, and Andreas Fichtner

Once a niche technology, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) has gained increasing popularity over the last decade, due to its versatility and ability to capture extremely dense seismic datasets in a wide range of challenging environments. While DAS has been utilised in some particularly remote locations, such as on glaciers and volcanoes, it also holds a great deal of potential closer to home; beneath our cities. As DAS is able to be used with existing telecommunication fibres, urban areas contain huge potential networks of strain or strain-rate sensors, right beneath our feet. This data enables us to monitor the local environment, recording events such as earthquakes, as well as characterising and monitoring the shallow subsurface. DAS experiments using dark fibres are unintrusive and highly repeatable, meaning that this method is ideal for long-term site monitoring.

In collaboration with the OTE Group (the largest telecommunications company in Greece), we have collected urban DAS data beneath North-East Athens, utilising existing, in-situ telecommunication fibres. This large dataset contains a wide range of anthropogenic signals, as well as many seismic events, ranging from small, local events, to an internationally reported Magnitude 6.4 earthquake in Crete.

We conduct a preliminary analysis of the dataset, identifying and assessing the earthquake signals recorded. This will be compared with the event catalogue of the local, regional network in Athens, to determine our sensitivity to events of different magnitudes, and in a range of locations. We hope to gain an understanding of how DAS could be combined with the existing network for seismic monitoring and earthquake detection.

Moving forward, we aim to also apply ambient noise methods to this dataset in order to extract dispersion measurements, and ultimately invert for a shallow velocity model of the suburbs of Athens.

How to cite: Smolinski, K. T., Bowden, D. C., Lentas, K., Melis, N. S., Simos, C., Bogris, A., Simos, I., Nikas, T., and Fichtner, A.: Distributed Acoustic Sensing in the Athens Metropolitan Area: Preliminary Results, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11864, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11864, 2022.

EGU22-11869 | Presentations | SM2.1

Long range distributed acoustic sensing technology for subsea geophysical applications 

Erlend Rønnekleiv, Ole Henrik Waagaard, Jan Petter Morten, and Jan Kristoffer Brenne

Recent advances in range and performance of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) enable new geophysical applications by measuring fiber strain in existing telecom cables and subsea power cables that incorporate optical fibers. We will  present new field data showing the usability of DAS for environmental and geophysical applications, focusing especially on seabed surface waves and the sub-Hz domain. These examples show that highly sensitive DAS technology can be a valuable tool within seismology and oceanography.

The sensitive range along the fiber for DAS was previously limited to about 50 km. We will demonstrate a newly developed system (named OptoDAS) that allows for launching several orders of more optical power into the fiber, and thereby significantly improving the range beyond 150 km.

This new interrogation approach allows for high degree of flexibility optimizing the interrogation parameters to optimize the noise floor, spatial and temporal resolution according to the application. The gauge length (spatial resolution) can be set from 2 to 40 m. For interrogation of 10 km fiber, we achieve a record low noise floor of 1.4 pε/√Hz with 10 m spatial resolution. For interrogation of fibers beyond 150 km, we achieve a noise floor below 50 pε/√Hz up to 100 km. Above 100 km, the noise is limited by the level of reflected optical power, and the noise increases by ~0.3-0.4 dB/km, corresponding to the dual path optical loss in the fiber.

A modern instrument control interface allows for automatic optimalization of interrogation parameters based on application parameters in a few minutes. The instrument computer provides a flexible platform for different applications. The high-capacity storage system can store recorded time-series of several weeks to support e.g., geophysical investigations where extensive post-processing is required. The computational capacity can also be used for real-time visualization and advanced signal processing, for example for event detection and direct reporting of estimated parameters.

The OptoDAS system can convert a submarine cable into a 100 km+ densely sampled array.  From the recordings on a telecom cable in the North Sea, we will show examples of propagating Rayleigh and Love acoustical modes bounded to the seafloor surface. These modes can be excited by acoustic sources on or above the seafloor, such as trawls and anchors. The dense spatial sampling allows for accurate estimates of the location of these sources. The system also allows for applications in seismology and earthquake monitoring. When attached to a cable with non-straight geometry, the measurements have substantial information to determine the location of seismic events. This will be demonstrated using field data from the North Sea telecom cable.

From recordings on a submarine cable between Norway and Denmark, we present the DAS response in the frequency range 0.1 mHz-10Hz across a cable span of 120 km. The response in this frequency range will be a combination of temperature changes, ocean swells and tides. We show that increasing the gauge length in post-processing allows for improving the sensitivity for detecting ultra-low frequency signals.

How to cite: Rønnekleiv, E., Waagaard, O. H., Morten, J. P., and Brenne, J. K.: Long range distributed acoustic sensing technology for subsea geophysical applications, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11869, 2022.

EGU22-3112 | Presentations | SM2.2

A Low Noise Model for Rotational Ground Motions 

Heiner Igel, Andreas Brotzer, Eleonore Stutzmann, Jean-Paul Montagner, Chin-Jen Lin, Celine Hadziioannou, Joachim Wassermann, and Ulrich Schreiber

The quantitative low/high noise models (L/HNM) for translational ground motions (e.g., Petersen 1993) based on many observations of acceleration power-spectral densities has been extremely successful for the evaluation of site quality, as well as the development of seismic sensors for passive experiments on Earth. No such L/HNM exists for rotational ground motions, primarily because 1) there are close to no direct sensors that measure below the Earth’s smallest rotational motions (large ring laser are currently the most sensitive instruments), and 2) small-scale seismic arrays can be used to derive rotational motions, but are limited in frequency range. A (even approximate) rotational L/HNM would be useful in particular for the development of new rotation sensors considering the numerous possible applications of 6 degree-of-freedom observations in terrestrial and planetary seismology as well as ocean bottom observations. As the terrestrial low-noise motion is primarily dominated by surface waves, the well-known connection between plane surface waves and rotational motions can be used to estimate rotational motions from classic seismometer records using local velocity information. We propose a methodology to derive a rotational L/HNM and support the model by ring laser and seismic array observations.

How to cite: Igel, H., Brotzer, A., Stutzmann, E., Montagner, J.-P., Lin, C.-J., Hadziioannou, C., Wassermann, J., and Schreiber, U.: A Low Noise Model for Rotational Ground Motions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3112, 2022.

EGU22-3158 | Presentations | SM2.2

Advancing the Analysis of Volcano-seismic Signals on Etna using Rotational Sensor Data 

Eva P. S. Eibl, Martina Rosskopf, Mariangela Sciotto, Giuseppe Di Grazia, Gilda Currenti, Philippe Jousset, Frank Krüger, and Michael Weber

Etna volcano in Italy is one of the most active volcanoes in Europe. We recorded the volcanic activity including degassing and vigorous strombolian activity using a seismometer and a rotational sensor in August to September 2019. We test the newly developed rotational sensor in the field in comparison to the broadband seismometer and seismic-network-based locations using the INGV network. We demonstrate that a single rotational sensor co-located with a seismometer can be used to identify specific seismic wave types, to estimate the back azimuth of wave arrivals and the local seismic phase velocities.

Using the rotational sensor, we easily detected the dominant SH-type waves composing volcanic tremor during weak volcanic activity and the recorded VLP/ LP events. Changes in the composition of the tremor wavefield caused by the onset of vigorous volcanic activity are obvious and can be detected in near real-time if data is streamed. We discuss the changes in the wavefield composition from SH-type waves to a mixed wavefield in the context of the volcanic activity, the back azimuth of the signals and associated phase velocities. Our findings are consistent with observations by INGV and hence the rotational sensor reliably enlarges our sensor portfolio in volcanic environments. In fact, wavefield and ground properties can be derived using just one sensor instead of a sensor network, which makes experiments in remote areas cheaper and easier to maintain. In addition, you can observe phenomena that otherwise go unnoticed, like near vent block rotation.

How to cite: Eibl, E. P. S., Rosskopf, M., Sciotto, M., Di Grazia, G., Currenti, G., Jousset, P., Krüger, F., and Weber, M.: Advancing the Analysis of Volcano-seismic Signals on Etna using Rotational Sensor Data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3158, 2022.

The seismic waves responsible for shaking civil engineering structures undergo interference, focusing, scattering, and diffraction by the inhomogeneous medium encountered along the source-to-site propagation path. The subsurface heterogeneities at a site can particularly alter the local seismic wavefield and amplify the ground rotations, thereby increasing the seismic hazard. However, due to paucity of direct recordings of rotational motions, little research has been done towards characterizing the amplifications of ground rotations in the presence of subsurface heterogeneities. This study aims to quantify these amplifications in the case of a 2-D heterogeneous elastic half-space excited by plane SH waves. A semi-analytical method based on the perturbation theory is developed to obtain the translational and rotational motions in the spectral domain. In this method, the problem of simulating motion in a heterogeneous medium is reduced to calculating the response of a homogeneous medium subjected to body forces representing the heterogeneities. Since the dynamic response of a homogeneous half-space subject to body forces is easier to synthesize, the proposed method is convenient to implement. The method is tested for accuracy by comparing its solution with that of a spectral finite element-based solver. Furthermore, the method is shown to be stable at high frequencies (up to 10 Hz) as well as when the subsurface heterogeneities are strong (~20%). The method is applied to an example 2-D heterogeneous medium to ascertain the amplifications in the ground rotations.

How to cite: Singla, V. and Lokmer, I.: Semi-Analytical Method for Simulating Rotational Ground Motion in Two-Dimensional Heterogeneous Elastic Half-Space, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5651, 2022.

EGU22-6577 | Presentations | SM2.2

Wave Gradiometry and Continuous Wavelet Transform Thresholding 

Oluwaseyi Bolarinwa and Charles Langston

A gradiometer array was deployed as part of the wavefields community experiment conducted by IRIS in the summer of 2016 near Enid, Oklahoma, USA. The gradiometer consisted of 7 levels of concentric square rings with each ring being four times the area of the immediate smaller ring; the largest ring spanned an 800X800 km2 area. Each ring was made up of 16 three-component, 4.5 Hz nodal instruments. In a bid to appraise the effectiveness of the gradiometer in characterizing seismic waves, we computed seismic wave attributes in the form of apparent slowness and signal azimuth from gradiometer records of a magnitude 4.2 event that occurred during the wavefields experiment and compared these attributes with those computed from a coincidental, 3-km aperture phased array by means of a new array analysis method based on the continuous wavelet transform (CWT). Just as in gradiometry, the phased array technique provides wave attributes for all time points, which allows a point-for-point comparison of the gradiometry attributes with those for the phased array method. Prior to analysis, we extracted body wave phases from the gradiometer and phased array data by means of scale-time gating in the CWT space. This step was necessary to reduce the effect of seismic phase interference that can negatively impact gradiometry results. Gradiometry analysis of the vertical component data revealed a P wave horizontal phase velocity of 6.17+-0.04 km/s, which only deviates by 0.03 km/s from the phase array result obtained over an identical time window. The corresponding azimuth computed using gradiometry is 2.2 degrees off the great circle path between the event’s epicenter and the gradiometer center. If the smallest gradiometer ring is labelled 1 and the rest progressively labelled based on their sizes up to 7, this optimal result was obtained using the gradiometer subarray that combines rings 1,3 and 5. Thus, the gradiometer with its relative portability may be preferred over a traditional phased array deployment in some geophysical campaigns.  Using CWT thresholding techniques finds those areas of the wavelet transform plane that contain high SNR for useful processing using beam forming or gradiometry.

How to cite: Bolarinwa, O. and Langston, C.: Wave Gradiometry and Continuous Wavelet Transform Thresholding, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6577, 2022.

EGU22-9352 | Presentations | SM2.2

A highly sensitive instrument for direct and long-term observations of seismic and natural-mode rotational movements 

Leszek Jaroszewicz, Anna Kurzych, and Michał Dudek

Over the last decade, the interest of rotational ground movements has become significant in the field of seismological research, especially in seismic engineering. Being able to reliably detect and record rotational motions is a key point in rotational seismology to better understand the origin of earthquakes and in particular to relate them to the geological context. The area of rotational seismology includes seismology, earthquake engineering, seismotectonic, geodesy as well as gravitation waves. Generally, in classical approach, seismic events are monitored by underground and surface seismic stations based on translational vibration sensors (seismometers, geophones, accelerometers). However, a full description of wave motion requires information about both displacements along the three perpendicular axes X, Y, and Z as well the rotation around these axes. The lack of a possibility of complete wave motion measurements results mainly due to technical difficulties in providing the appropriate sensors meeting all technical requirements of rotational seismology.

In this paper we present the laboratory analysis and field records of the fibre-optic seismograph (FOS) that utilizes the Sagnac effect based on a minimum optical configuration designed for a huge fibre-optic gyroscope with special attention to angular motion detection. Presented FOS utilizes a closed-loop configuration, which is based on the compensatory phase measurement method as well as specific electronic system. The experimental results showed that described FOS is characterized by a wide measuring range, it detects signals with amplitudes ranging from several dozen nrad/s up to even few rad/s and frequencies from 0.01 Hz to 100 Hz. The determined angle random walk was equal to 3∙10−8 rad/s and bias instability was equal to 2∙10−8 rad/s. Moreover,  besides the laboratory verification of FOS’s proper operation, the field observation results are also presented. Aforementioned device is constantly registering rotational motions in the seismological observatory located in the basement of the Książ Castle near Wałbrzych, Poland. We present the rotational events induced by the exploitation of the copper ore deposit in this area as well as long-term measurements, showing results confirming positive detection of small differences in Earth’s rotation rate – mainly diurnal and semi-diurnal. The presented data give broad view of the potential FOS’s application in the area of rotational seismology, including seismic monitoring in observatories, buildings, mines, chimneys and even on glaciers and in their vicinity.

How to cite: Jaroszewicz, L., Kurzych, A., and Dudek, M.: A highly sensitive instrument for direct and long-term observations of seismic and natural-mode rotational movements, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9352, 2022.

EGU22-11072 | Presentations | SM2.2

Array-derived peak ground rotation rate vs. peak ground acceleration: scaling relations from seismicity induced by the Espoo/Helsinki geothermal stimulation 

Gregor Hillers, Amir Sadeghi-Bagherabadi, Tommi A.T. Vuorinen, and George Taylor

Observations of ground motion in the near-field of induced earthquakes are important to assess ground shaking limits and design pumping protocols for geothermal stimulation projects, in particular near densely popluated urban areas where such zero-emission geo-energy systems can supply heat and electricity close to the consumer. Diverse seismic networks around the 2018 and 2020 geothermal stimulations in the Otaniemi district in the Espoo/Helsinki area, southern Finland, recorded the ground motions of 6-km-deep induced events at epicentral distances in the 2 to 20 km range. Key features of the seismic networks are seismic arrays consisting of 3 to 25 three-component 4.5 Hz geophones recording at 400 Hz, with interstation distances in the 50 m range. From the array seismograms of translational motion it is possible to compute rotational motion for some 200 events with local magnitudes between 0 and 1.8. The data allow the rare assessment of ground motion patterns at small distances in the cratonic low-attenuation environment of the Fennoscandian shield. Here wo focus on a systematic evaluation of the scaling relations between array-derived peak ground rotation rate (PRR) and peak ground acceleration (PGA) that have been shown to be linearly related. Array-derived motion around all three axes is computed using the ObsPy community tool implementation of Spudich and Fletcher’s seismogeodetic approach. The array and subarray size controls the frequency range for which the rotational motion can be reliably estimated, hence we focus on the robustness and accuracy of the obtained PRR values. We explore the array shape dependent frequency range by a combined analysis of the quality of the PRR estimates, the quality of the linear relationship between PRR and PGA, and the wavelength-to-array-size ratio. The target frequency range is 2 – 15 Hz. We further test if the bandlimited PRR-PGA scaling differs from PGA-scaling obtained from the full bandwidth records. For narrow-band signals the proportionality factor or slope of the PRR-PGA scaling is the local slowness, which opens intriguing opportunities to probe the local velocity structure. From our data we can analyze the scaling relations and therefore consistency between the nine different component pairs of PRR and PGA motion. These results based on ratios of single peak values in a 2 s long seismogram—the S minus P time is about 1 s—are compared to local phase speed estimates from a previous analysis based on optimizing translational acceleration and vertical rotation of the full S-waveform. Data from the many small arrays are used to explore the attenuation of PRR with distance from the source. The deployment of broadband rotational sensors and DAS systems for wavefield gradiometry analyses is anticipated to become more common in future networks; this study contributes to bridging the waiting time by providing low-tech observations of band-limited array-derived rotational motion estimates from induced seismicity for seismic engineering studies.

How to cite: Hillers, G., Sadeghi-Bagherabadi, A., Vuorinen, T. A. T., and Taylor, G.: Array-derived peak ground rotation rate vs. peak ground acceleration: scaling relations from seismicity induced by the Espoo/Helsinki geothermal stimulation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11072, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11072, 2022.

EGU22-13355 | Presentations | SM2.2

Analytical developments on 6C computation inspired by navigation algorithms 

Baptiste Pinot, Frederic Guattari, Joachin Honthaas, and David Mimoun

The deployment of portable broadband rotational ground motion sensors in the field marks the beginning of 6 degrees of freedom simultaneous and co-located measurements in seismology, after decades of ground motion instrumentation measuring only translations. Regarding the computation of this new kind of data-set, there are obviously some analysis technics to inherit from navigation.

Hence, now seismology has also to solve the 6 equations system with 6 unknowns of dynamic motion. In a navigation system, it is computed real-time in onboard electronics, taking into account centrifugal forces, non-commutativity of rotations, and compensation of projection of gravity in accelerometers frame and Earth rotation rate in gyroscopes frame. For the moment, attempts at handling the merging of 6 components in seismology has remained mostly empirical, using cross-correlation maximization and other optimization methods.

In this study, we developed the analytical framework for seismological 6-C computation methods, derived from navigation-inspired methods to establish a stronger link between these algorithm expertises.

How to cite: Pinot, B., Guattari, F., Honthaas, J., and Mimoun, D.: Analytical developments on 6C computation inspired by navigation algorithms, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13355, 2022.

EGU22-13511 | Presentations | SM2.2

Quartz Rotation Sensor 

Krishna Venkateswara, Jerome Paros, Paul Bodin, William Wilcock, and Harold J. Tobin

A new high-precision ground- or platform-rotation sensor called the Quartz Rotation Sensor (QRS) has been developed and tested. The QRS is a mechanical angular accelerometer that senses rotational torque with an inherently digital, load-sensitive resonant quartz crystal. It is a portable broadband sensor with a noise floor measured to be ∼45 pico-radian/root (Hz) near 1 Hz, and a resonant period of ~10 s. The noise floor of the sensor near 0.1 Hz is more than two orders of magnitude lower than other similarly sized instruments enabling a dramatic improvement in ability to measure rotational teleseismic signals and tilt contamination in horizontal seismometers. We will present details of the sensor and measurements of rotational components of teleseismic waves recorded with the sensor at a vault. The QRS is useful for rotational seismology and for improving low-frequency seismic isolation in demanding applications such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatories.

How to cite: Venkateswara, K., Paros, J., Bodin, P., Wilcock, W., and Tobin, H. J.: Quartz Rotation Sensor, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13511, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13511, 2022.

EGU22-2468 | Presentations | SM2.3

Deployment of a local seismic network around the northern Guadiana Menor River (Betic Cordillera, Spain) 

Jesús Garrido, José A. Peláez, Jesús Henares, and Carlos Marín

The Guadiana Menor River, included in the Guadalquivir foreland basin, at the northern border of the Betic Cordillera, has suffered in the last decade some low to moderate magnitude seismic series. For instance, the so called 2012-2013 Sabiote-Torreperogil seismic sequence, 1 to 5 km deep, being the biggest recorded event a mbLg 3.9 earthquake, and the so called 2016-2018 Jódar-Peal de Becerro seismic series, less than 2 km and 9 to 13 km deep, 20 km southeast of the previous one, being a mbLg 4.1 event the greatest recorded magnitude. In both cases, seismic series show focal mechanism solutions mostly with strike-slip and some dip-slip and NW-SE compression with no clear tectonic features at surface, due to the sedimentary infill. The Spanish Instituto Geográfico Nacional (IGN) national seismic network recorded in the last years, mainly in the region of the 2016-2018 seismic sequence, some low magnitude earthquakes, showing that the fault that hosted these events continues to be active.

This was the main reason to develop a little local seismic network in the region, designed with the aim to study this persistent seismicity in terms of locations and focal mechanism solutions when there could be available data. It is equipped with six triaxial broadband sensors specifically deployed for this purpose, and also sharing data coming from a near IGN seismic station in the region. The seven seismic stations present as uniform azimuthal distribution as possible around the seismicity, being the nearest station less than 5 km from the seismicity area, and the farthest about 30 km away. Anyway, the seismic network spatial distribution has been conditioned for the fact that they are not permanent housing stations, requiring electric power. Most of the seismic stations are recording data from September 2021.

Real-time records are shared with the Spanish IGN seismic network in order to improve regional locations. Until now, several low magnitude earthquakes, below the perceptibility level of the national seismic network, have been located. In addition, focal mechanisms have been computed for some low magnitude events (~ mbLg 2.0), congruent with strike-slip solutions.

How to cite: Garrido, J., Peláez, J. A., Henares, J., and Marín, C.: Deployment of a local seismic network around the northern Guadiana Menor River (Betic Cordillera, Spain), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2468, 2022.

EGU22-3954 | Presentations | SM2.3

Coordinating Access to Seismic Waveform Data in Europe: Overview of ORFEUS Activities, Services and Products 

Carlo Cauzzi, Jarek Bieńkowski, Wayne Crawford, Susana Custódio, Sebastiano D'Amico, Christos Evangelidis, Philippe Guéguen, Christian Haberland, Florian Haslinger, Giovanni Lanzano, Lars Ottemöller, Stéphane Rondenay, Reinoud Sleeman, and Angelo Strollo

ORFEUS (Observatories and Research Facilities for European Seismology, http://orfeus-eu.org/) is a non-profit organization founded in 1986 with the chief goal to promote seismology in the Euro-Mediterranean area through the collection, archival and distribution of seismic waveform data, metadata, and closely related services and products. ORFEUS also supports the coordination and implementation of large scale community initiatives and experiments in observational seismology, and provides community support through software and travel grants, editorial initiatives and training activities. ORFEUS data and services are collected or developed at national level by more than 60 contributing Institutions (see https://orfeus-eu.org/organization/corporate_founders/ and https://orfeus-eu.org/organization/participation/) in the greater European region, and further developed, integrated, standardized, homogenized and promoted through ORFEUS. Within EPOS, ORFEUS represents the seismological waveform services as one of three sub-domains of EPOS Seismology. ORFEUS data and services are open, FAIR, and accompanied by clear policies and licensing information. Two Service Management Committees (SMCs) are established within ORFEUS, devoted to managing, operating and developing (with the support of one or more Infrastructure Development Groups): (i) the European Integrated waveform Data Archive (EIDA; https://www.orfeus-eu.org/data/eida/); and (ii) the European Strong-Motion databases (SM; https://www.orfeus-eu.org/data/strong/). A new SMC is being formed to represent the community of European mobile instrument pools, including also amphibian instrumentation. Products and services for computational seismologists are also possible candidates for integration in the ORFEUS domain. Overall, ORFEUS services currently provide access to waveforms acquired by ~ 16,000 stations, including dense temporary experiments, with strong emphasis on open, high-quality data. Contributing to ORFEUS data archives means benefitting from long-term archival, state-of-the-art quality control, improved access, increased usage, and community participation. Access to data and products is ensured through state-of-the-art information and communication technologies, with strong emphasis on web services that allow automated user access to data gathered and/or distributed by the various ORFEUS institutions (see ​​https://orfeus-eu.org/data/eida/webservices/ and https://esm-db.eu/#/data_and_services/web_services). Particular attention is paid to acknowledging the crucial role played by data providers, who are part of the ORFEUS community. ORFEUS strongly encourages the use of international network codes, seismic network digital object identifiers, and full network citations. All ORFEUS services are developed in coordination with EPOS and are largely integrated in the EPOS Data Access Portal (https://www.ics-c.epos-eu.org/). Documentation on ORFEUS data and services is provided on the ORFEUS website and is complemented by a large archive of ORFEUS community workshops and seminars / webinars  (https://orfeus-eu.org/other/workshops/). ORFEUS data and services are assessed and improved with the help of technical and scientific feedback from a User Advisory Group (UAG), which comprises European Earth scientists with expertise on a broad range of observational seismology topics. ORFEUS is a key participant in EC-funded projects and collaborates with global and international organizations with similar scope, like the FDSN (https://fdsn.org/), IRIS (https://www.iris.edu/), and COSMOS (https://strongmotion.org/).

How to cite: Cauzzi, C., Bieńkowski, J., Crawford, W., Custódio, S., D'Amico, S., Evangelidis, C., Guéguen, P., Haberland, C., Haslinger, F., Lanzano, G., Ottemöller, L., Rondenay, S., Sleeman, R., and Strollo, A.: Coordinating Access to Seismic Waveform Data in Europe: Overview of ORFEUS Activities, Services and Products, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3954, 2022.

EGU22-4410 | Presentations | SM2.3

Review of earthquake location quality since 2020 for Austria 

Maria-Theresia Apoloner, Niko Horn, and Helmut Hausmann

When monitoring seismicity, detection thresholds for magnitude and location accuracy for epicentres are basic quality factors used. However, these factors can be estimated in numerous ways, depending on available data, the tasks the network is built for and customer/legal guidelines.

In this work, we focus on location quality. We analyse location quality for the area of Austria and a smaller project within. For this purpose, we calculate location errors with NLLoc (Lomax, et al. 2009) for Austria and compare them with location errors automatically computed for each earthquake located by the Austrian Seismological Servicewithin the last 2 years. Additionally, we use the quality parameters given in Bondar, et al. (2004) for further analysis.

How to cite: Apoloner, M.-T., Horn, N., and Hausmann, H.: Review of earthquake location quality since 2020 for Austria, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4410, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4410, 2022.

Güralp’s smart seismic range of seismic instrumentation (incorporating Certimus, Fortimus, Minimus, Radian and Aquarius) prioritizes technical features like low-latency, communication, and computational processes, as well as practical features like compatibility and modular design for easy adaptation and integration with existing networks. 

The Güralp Data Centre interface offers ‘one click’ tools to configure seismic instruments to stream data to a central (typically cloud based) server. From here the data is saved in miniSEED form in configurable folder structures. This application is particularly important for operators dealing with large volumes of seismic waveform data from regional and national networks. The GDC proves to be particularly effective when coupled with low-latency transmission protocols, where data is streamed from seismic stations to the GDC and then efficiently forwarded to the desired location and in the most appropriate format, reducing the overall latency of the system.   

Additionally, the data can be streamed on to downstream processors such as Earthworm or SeisComP to build more advanced large-scale seismic monitoring and data analysis systems. Industry standard protocols are employed throughout whilst offering a simple interface to set up and monitor the operation of the network, meaning that the GDC can be easily implemented into existing systems and networks with minimal configuration.

Long term latency monitoring, network outages and bandwidth usage are all captured and displayed in a number of applets that make the maintenance of large networks straight forward. The Güralp Data Centre includes the Discovery software dashboard which allows network managers to monitor key SOH parameters in Realtime and to also configure system on mass.

Trigger events from instruments can be recorded and displayed on a map as part of a range of features dedicated to EEW implementations. This information is conveyed using the open Common Alert Protocol (CAP). The CAP messages are created as a result of individual station or sub-network triggers and will contain important parameters such the on-site recorded PGA, PGV and PGD. This method provides the lowest possible latency for simple network early warning.

 

How to cite: Lindsey, J., Barbara, R., Reis, W., Mohr, S., Cilia, M., Watkiss, N., and Hill, P.: The Güralp smart seismic range of instruments benefit from enhanced networking functionality with the new Güralp Data Centre (GDC) software package for easy mass data acquisition and station metadata observing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7818, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7818, 2022.

EGU22-8418 | Presentations | SM2.3

Two years of permanent deployment of seismic station LIVV, Antarctica 

Liliya Dimitrova, Gergana Georgieva, Dragomir Dragomirov, and Valentin Buchekchiev

Livingston Island is one of the eleven islands of the South Shetland Archipelago which is separated from the Antarctic Peninsula by Bransfield Strait and from South America by the Drake Passage. In 1988 in the eastern part of the Island, the Bulgarian Antarctic Base “St. Kliment Ohridski” (BAB) was established. The Base works during the austral summers and accommodates scientists from different branches of the science. The first Bulgarian Polar Seismic Station LIVV was set in operation in 2014 as a seasonal station operating during the regular Antarctic expeditions. In 2019, the station was rebuilt on a new site one kilometer far from BAB. The seismological equipment was installed on a bedrock outcrop at the base of a hill. The equipment consists of broadband seismometer Guralp CMG40T with 30 s to 50 Hz flat velocity response and one short period 4.5 Hz Geophone. Thermo-insulation covers are mounted over the both sensors to ensure stable environment. The digitizer Reftek DAS-130/6 and the solar panel controller are installed close to the sensors in a thermo insulated box. The station is powered by a battery and solar panel. A GPS receiver ensures time synchronization. At the end of the XXVIII Bulgarian Antarctic expedition in March of 2020, the seismic station LIVV was set as permanent year-round operational Antarctic station. Using the recorded state of the health information and the registered seismic data, we analyzed the performance of the station LIVV. For the two years of permanent deployment, the seismic equipment works stable. The battery has retained its working capacity despite low temperatures and high humidity. There are interruptions in the recording when the sunlight is not high enough to charge the battery above 12V. After restoring the power supply, the equipment immediately is switched on in the normal registration mode. The temperature inside of the thermal box hasn’t dropped below 6⁰ C and the electronic components have worked in an optimal environment. The cycle operational mode of the GPS receiver is suitable set to ensure high accuracy time. The analysis of the recorded seismic data shows that the mode value of the ambient seismic noise, for longer periods greater than 1s, is 10-20dB below High Noise Model and for the shorter periods below 1 s it falls to -140dB. The noise level suggests good recording capabilities of the station especially in the short periods. This is proven by the large number of recorded earthquakes and events in the ice cover of the Livingston Island during the two years exploitation period. The analysis of the performance of the seismic station LIVV shows that the station is built on a stable foundation (bedrock), and the provided thermal insulation creates an optimal mode of operation of the seismic equipment. With an uninterruptible power supply, the seismic station will operate reliably and without interruption throughout the year, and the quality of the recorded data will be high enough to analyze the seismicity in the region and the behavior of the ice sheet of the Island.

How to cite: Dimitrova, L., Georgieva, G., Dragomirov, D., and Buchekchiev, V.: Two years of permanent deployment of seismic station LIVV, Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8418, 2022.

EGU22-9762 | Presentations | SM2.3

SeisPPSD: an interactive web front-end and scalable HPC back-end for probabilistic power-spectral-density calculations 

Vincent van der Heiden, Michael Frietsch, and Andreas Rietbrock

Offering a web-interface alongside a back-end for the calculation of probabilistic power-spectral-densities (PPSD) is the main goal of this project. No simple out-of-the-box open-source solution is available so far. Moreover, researchers should get access to the information needed in a straightforward way.

The project was initiated to process data routinely acquired at the KIT GPI seismological data center in order to enhance the quality control of the acquired data and station metadata. Furthermore, the PPSD gallery should develop into a starting point for further scientific research.

Here we present SeisPPSD, a comprehensive solution for the calculation and inspection of PPSDs building on existing ObsPy codes. Next to an intuitive gallery and archive which offers a fine granularity in time, the user can create PPSDs interactively, e.g. comparing the day and night noise levels. As well, plots with noise levels for distinct frequencies over time can be visualized.

The web front-end is mainly written in HTML but using Python and Javascript for the interactive parts. The back-end is implemented in Python and is distributing the PPSD calculation in a scalable fashion to the HPC environment.

Apart from an easy to use web-interface, the researcher has access to an archive with the data derived product. This creates the opportunity for the researchers to customize plots with the already (pre-)calculated PPSD files. Furthermore, those files are relatively small and therefore uncomplicated to share with researchers outside. The PPSD-files can be used with the standard ObsPy module opening the possibility for further collaboration.

How to cite: van der Heiden, V., Frietsch, M., and Rietbrock, A.: SeisPPSD: an interactive web front-end and scalable HPC back-end for probabilistic power-spectral-density calculations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9762, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9762, 2022.

EGU22-10500 | Presentations | SM2.3

Cascadia 120 Slim Posthole: A Combined Strong and Weak Motion Sensor for Early Warning and Regional Networks 

Valarie Hamilton, Tim Parker, Geoffrey Bainbridge, and Daniela Wuthrich

Existing regional and EEW networks can be improved in data quality, providing more stations with unclipped continuous waveform observations and a uniform magnitude of completeness (Mc).  This is possible using upgraded deeper sensor emplacements and new instrumentation, based on a current understanding of system noise and updated equipment available today.  Station density is increasing with the EEW buildout, with a focus on minimizing latency, which also presents an opportunity to improve data quality for weak motion.  Mc and signal-to-noise ratio across the seismic and geodetic spectrum will be important for future OEF challenges and for hazard and science efforts such as 4D studies and the high resolution geophysical imaging of deep Earth structure.  Recent development of network Mc simulation code (Wilson et al., 2021) can be used to plan new networks, or infill stations to economically upgrade existing networks to these new best practices.  

An instrument system that provides high-gain weak motion data in precise alignment with strong motion data allows combined processing to create a seamless data set with maximum dynamic range.  The Nanometrics Cascadia 120 Slim Posthole has been designed to meet these requirements. Both weak and strong motion sensors are integrated in a single case which enables lowest system noise, unclipped observations, and precise coherence of signals between the weak and strong motion channels.  Cascadia 120 Slim and Cascadia Compact are deployed in networks now and we will present data showing the noise floor for weak motion, a seamless transition to strong motion, and high coherence between the two sensors for mid-sized events.

Authors: Valarie Hamilton, Geoffrey Bainbridge, Tim Parker, Daniela Wuthrich

How to cite: Hamilton, V., Parker, T., Bainbridge, G., and Wuthrich, D.: Cascadia 120 Slim Posthole: A Combined Strong and Weak Motion Sensor for Early Warning and Regional Networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10500, 2022.

An important consideration in selecting instrumentation to support the undertaking of portable seismic campaigns has been the costs associated with physical attributes, namely Size, Weight, and Power.  A more holistic approach would be to examine the overall campaign lifecycle and the phases which have the greatest impact on science outcomes. In this regard, some of the key success factors are the decisions made during the deployment planning phase that includes network size, station geolocation, instrumentation and sensor choices. Often overlooked is the data management problem associated with ensuring that the most up-to-date information associated with the plan is communicated to everyone who needs it. Further, another often overlooked aspect is the accurate tracking and reporting of what actually is deployed in the field relative to the plan, since such deviations inevitably occur.

The Pegasus Data Acquisition System is an ecosystem of hardware and software components for portable seismic monitoring that fundamentally transforms how seismic campaigns are conducted. This integrated ecosystem-based approach to seismic data acquisition ensures that campaigns are easy to plan, execute and achieve superb outcome certainty and cost-efficiency. A range of Pegasus models have been designed specifically to support Portable, Polar and OBS campaigns. Seamlessly integrated workflows address all aspects of the campaign lifecycle from pre-planning to pre-configured deployments, harvesting ready-to-use complete data sets, configuration distribution to field technicians and automatically generated metadata.

Authors: David Easton, Michael Perlin, Sylvain Pigeon, Tim Parker, Valarie Hamilton

How to cite: Easton, D.: Transforming Portable Seismic Data Acquisition: From Experiment Design to Publishing, an Ecosystem Approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10561, 2022.

The densification of offshore observatories is the next important challenge for scientists as described in the New Advances of Geophysics’ (NAG) meeting in November 2018 in Edinburgh. 

Nanometrics is combining our latest land based technology with our proven OBS technologies to enable the next steps in offshore observation.  Specifically, we are building both 360 second and 120 second corner observatory class seismometers with the same performance specifications as land based instruments, but in a form factor allowing deployments to 6000m.   

 

These seismometers come in a form factor unique to the OBS community allowing exceptional advances in SWaP (size, weight and power), critical to reducing the expensive logistics of OBS work, and are suitable for autonomous stations and cabled stations.  Power usage and volume are reduced 60-70% versus previous generation options.

These new instruments expand Nanometrics' range of products enabling new ocean bottom science, reducing integration risk and time to deploy, while improving outcome certainty.  

Authors: Michael Perlin, Geoffrey Bainbridge, Bruce Townsend, Valarie Hamilton, Tim Parker

How to cite: Perlin, M.: A New Generation of Turnkey Broadband Solutions to Support Ocean Bottom Research, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10594, 2022.

EGU22-10623 | Presentations | SM2.3

Real Time Data Acquisition for Mission-Critical Seismic Networks 

Michael Laporte

Ensuring the reliable acquisition of real time seismic data from remote monitoring stations is an inherently challenging task. Stations are often in isolated locations with little to no supporting infrastructure, creating limitations on power and communications systems which demand design tradeoffs. When the data is driving mission-critical public safety systems, such as Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and future work for Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF), real time acquisition performance is of critical importance. 

In particular for EEW, acquisition performance must be measured not only in real time data availability, but also data latency and bandwidth utilization.  Beyond these key performance metrics, it is critical that the system is robust, with layers of redundancy to ensure continued operation in the event of a damaging earthquake. A comprehensive system test and acceptance program is needed to ensure performance requirements are met and to have confidence the system will function as intended at the critical moment.

 

This study examines the objectives, the factors considered and the approaches taken in the design and implementation of a real time acquisition systems for mission-critical networks.

Authors 

Michael Laporte, Michael Perlin, Ben Tatham, Valarie Hamilton, Bruce Townsend

How to cite: Laporte, M.: Real Time Data Acquisition for Mission-Critical Seismic Networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10623, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10623, 2022.

EGU22-13025 | Presentations | SM2.3

A volcano seismic monitoring network in the Caribbean Netherlands 

Reinoud Sleeman and Elske de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen

The Lesser Antilles volcanic arc on the eastern boundary of the Caribbean Plate is part of the Caribbean subduction zone. The subduction process is responsible for the formation of 16 volcanoes in this arc, forming islands like Saba and St. Eustatius in the Caribbean Netherlands. KNMI deploys a monitoring network on these islands consisting of seismometers and GNSS stations. The seismic network is built with broadband seismometers to monitor seismic signals from (regional) earthquakes and from volcano related processes at Saba and St. Eustatius. We use local infrastructure as well as stand-alone VSAT technology to transmit seismic data in near real-time to KNMI. Data are forwarded in real-time to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PWTC). Waveforms are openly available to the research community through ORFEUS/EIDA, and through EPOS-NL, a Dutch national research infrastructure for solid Earth science that integrates large-scale geophysical facilities in the Netherlands.

Volcanoes Mt. Scenery (Saba) and The Quill (St. Eustatius) are active but quiescent. Volcanic earthquakes may occur at different depths and are caused by various processes in a volcano. Each type of volcanic earthquake exposes differences in features in the waveform data, like frequency content, waveform envelope, duration, statistical parameters and type of onset. We are building a monitoring system based on various tools and techniques, like a) SeisComP3 for detecting and locating regional tectonic earthquakes, b) a coincidence trigger to detect small, local (volcanic) earthquakes, c) covariance matrix analysis to identify coherent signals across the network, d) seismic interferometry to monitor seismic velocity changes in the subsurface of the volcanoes and e) data quality monitoring  to ensure high quality of data.

We provide an overview of the seismic network, the infrastructure, the availability of data through EPOS-NL and the implementation of the various monitoring techniques.

How to cite: Sleeman, R. and de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, E.: A volcano seismic monitoring network in the Caribbean Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13025, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13025, 2022.

EGU22-5010 | Presentations | GI5.1

Science and technology in deep unerground laboratories 

Aldo Ianni

Deep Underground Laboratories (DULs) are large research infrastructures with a minimum rock overburden equivalent to one km water equivalent. In DULs the flux of muons from cosmic rays is reduced by several order of magnitude with respect to the surface. This allows to perform research on very rare events, such as exotic radioactive decays, double beta decays, low energy neutrino and dark matter interactions. The phenomenon of neutrino oscillations has been discovered in DULs back in 1998. Solar neutrinos were first observed in a DUL in 1968. As of today thanks to research carried out in DULs over four decades we have studied in detail the energy production mechanisms in the sun’s core. In 1987 neutrinos from a core collapse supernova in the Large Magellanic Cloud were observed confirming our basic understanding of this high energetic event. DULs, at present, are equipped with more sensitive and better performing experiments to improve significantly these early studies. The large SuperKamiokande detector in Japan can observe as many as ten thousand events for a core collapse supernova at the center of our galaxy. The Borexino experiment in Italy has observed CNO neutrinos which contribute to only 1% of the energy production in the sun but are very important for more massive stars. All these crucial measurements could have not been possible without operating experiments in a deep underground site.

In the last decade the research horizon in DULs has expanded to include gravitational waves, geophysics, astrobiology, and biology in underground environments.

DULs are equipped with facilities to measure low levels of radioactivity by means of different techniques. This offers a unique opportunity to study living organism in a low radioactivity environment, namely with a significant reduction of cosmic rays and neutrons with respect to surface. DULs are being used by a large community of scientists ranging from astrophysicists, particle physicists, geophysicists, and biologists. There are 14 DULs in operation worldwide which correspond to about one million cubic meters excavated.

In the talk a brief review of DUL’s main features and research activities will be discussed. 

How to cite: Ianni, A.: Science and technology in deep unerground laboratories, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5010, 2022.

EGU22-6987 | Presentations | GI5.1

Underground workings as a most suitable place for the development of mining technologies - a case study from Polish copper mines 

Krzysztof Fulawka, Piotr Mertuszka, Witold Pytel, Marcin Szumny, and Lech Stolecki

The current EU policy emphasizes the necessity of the development of more safe and efficient mineral raw exploitation methods. The higher extraction rate and lowest possible environmental footprint of mining activities are the main goals of many international projects. Still, as recent experiences have shown it is challenging to develop new technologies in standard laboratory conditions. This is due to the inability to reproduce the environments present in most of the underground sites. Therefore post-mining underground workings seem to be the most suitable places for the development, validation and testing of new, more efficient mining technologies.

Such activities are continuously performed in KGHM Polish Copper mines, which are the test sites for numerous national and international research projects aimed at improving machinery, monitoring systems, mining methods and safety of work in underground conditions.  

In the present research, the recent experiences of KGHM CUPRUM company in terms of the development of new mining technologies fitted to Polish underground copper mines have been presented.

How to cite: Fulawka, K., Mertuszka, P., Pytel, W., Szumny, M., and Stolecki, L.: Underground workings as a most suitable place for the development of mining technologies - a case study from Polish copper mines, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6987, 2022.

EGU22-8784 | Presentations | GI5.1

Empowering Underground Laboratories Network Usage 

Eija-Riitta Niinikoski, Jari Joutsenvaara, Julia Puputti, Ossi Kotavaara, Marton Magyar, and Marko Holma

Underground laboratories provide unique environments for science, research and business, but many are not known or stay underutilised. Some of the underground laboratories are located or are planned to be built around the Baltic Sea region. In this work, the main outcomes of the EUL and the BSUIN projects will be presented.

The Baltic Sea Underground Innovation Network (BSUIN [1]) started in 2017 (ended in 12/2020), bringing together 13 (initially 14) partners with the common goal to help the underground laboratories to overcome the underutilisation and develop their practices, business models and marketing for attracting new users. The Empowering the Underground Laboratories Network Usage in the Baltic Sea Region (EUL, 1-12/2021 [2]) tested the developed tools and, with the feedback, helped the project partners to develop the tools further. The tools included the EUL Innovation platform (https://undergroundlabs.network/), the customer management relationship and marketing strategies, and social media coverages with various approaches to find the optimal practices for the platform and the actual laboratories.

The underground laboratories [3] participating in the BSUIN and EUL projects are:

  • Callio Lab, located at a 1.4-km deep base metal mine in Pyhäjärvi, Finland,
  • ÄSPÖ Hard Rock Laboratory, SKB´s final repository research site for spent nuclear fuel, Oskarshamn, Sweden,
  • Ruskeala Underground Laboratory, located at the Ruskeala Mining Park, Sortavala, Russia,
  • Educational and research mine Reiche Zeche, Freiberg, Germany,
  • Underground Low Background Laboratory of the Khlopin Radium Institute, located at the heart of St. Petersburg, Russia, and
  • The Conceptual Lab developed and coordinated by the KGHM Cuprum R&D centre, Poland.

The EUL and BSUIN projects are funded by the Interreg Baltic Sea Region Programme.

[1]         J. Joutsenvaara, “BSUIN - Baltic Sea Underground Innovation Network,” EGUGA, p. 11212, 2020, Accessed: Jan. 11, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2020EGUGA..2211212J/abstract.

[2]         E.-R. Niinikoski, “Empowering Underground Laboratories Network Usage in the Baltic Sea Region,” in EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, 2021, pp. EGU21--14791.

[3]         M. Ohlsson et al., “Six Underground Laboratories (ULs) Participating in the Baltic Sea Underground Innovation Network,” EGUGA, p. 22403, 2020, Accessed: Jan. 11, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2020EGUGA..2222403O/abstract.

How to cite: Niinikoski, E.-R., Joutsenvaara, J., Puputti, J., Kotavaara, O., Magyar, M., and Holma, M.: Empowering Underground Laboratories Network Usage, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8784, 2022.

EGU22-11619 | Presentations | GI5.1

Sky-high opportunities deep underground – Callio Lab research centre 

Julia Puputti, Jari Joutsenvaara, Ossi Kotavaara, and Eija-Riitta Niinikoski

One of the northernmost deep underground laboratories (DULs) in Europe can be found at Callio Lab, operating at the Pyhäsalmi Mine in Finland. What began as purely an underground physics centre in the early 2000s has been expanded into an international, multi- and transdisciplinary research centre known as Callio Lab. Its activities are coordinated by the University of Oulu Kerttu Saalasti Institute (KSI). Callio Lab is a founding member of the European Underground Laboratories Association, a part of the DULIA network, and a part of the national FIN-EPOS research infrastructure network. [1].

With underground mining ending in spring 2022, Callio Lab is a key element of the repurposing activities conducted under the CALLIO - Mine for Business concept. CALLIO will continue activities at the mine-site until at least 2025 [2]. Owing to the unique environment and circumstances, Callio Lab research can be conducted underground at seven deep underground laboratories found at various depths, as well as above-ground [3].

Callio Lab has conducted and facilitated research in fields ranging from particle physics and geosciences to underground food production and remote sensing. The operating environment presents versatile opportunities also in the study of circular economy, muography, and space and planetary sciences. Notable projects at Callio Lab have included the international EIT RM funded MINETRAIN, Interreg Baltic Sea Region funded BSUIN, and H2020 funded GoldenEye projects [4-6].

The operating environment at Callio Lab is well-known due to characterisation activities conducted during previous projects, datasets acquired from decades of research, and an extensive microseismic monitoring network. Callio Lab has a logistically ideal location, and the DULs themselves can be accessed via the incline tunnel or elevator shaft. The existing infrastructure and facilities, in-depth understanding and application of underground risk management and conditions, and well-established operating methodology ensures Callio Lab the capacity to successfully operate and facilitate a wide range of activities. [1,3].

[1] Callio Lab, www.oulu.fi/en/callio-lab, 11 Jan 2022

[2] Mine for Business – Callio – Pyhäjärvi, Finland, www.callio.info, 1 Jan 2022

[3] Callio Lab – Underground Center for Science and R&D, www.calliolab.com, 11 Jan 2022

[4] MINETRAIN, www.minetrain.eu, 8 Jan 2021

[5] Baltic Sea Underground Innovation Network, www.bsuin.eu, 11 Jan 2022

[6] GoldenEye EU H2020 funded project, www.goldeneye-project.eu, 11 Jan 2022

How to cite: Puputti, J., Joutsenvaara, J., Kotavaara, O., and Niinikoski, E.-R.: Sky-high opportunities deep underground – Callio Lab research centre, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11619, 2022.

EGU22-3601 | Presentations | GI5.5 | Highlight

Towards an automatic real-time seismic monitoring system for the city of Oslo 

Erik Myklebust, Andreas Köhler, and Anna Maria Dichiarante

Global estimates for future growth indicate that city inhabitation will increase by 13% due to a gradual shift in residence from rural to urban areas. The continuous increase in urban population has caused many cities to upgrade their infrastructures and embrace the vision of a “smart-city”. Data collection through sensors represents the base layer of every smart-city solution. Large datasets are processed, and relevant information is transferred to the police, local authorities, and the general public to facilitate decisions and to optimize the performance of cities in areas such as transport, health care, safety, natural resources and energy. The objective of the GEObyIT project is to provide a real-time risk reduction system in an urban environment by applying machine learning methodologies to automatically identify and categorise different types of geodata, i.e., seismic events and geological structures. The project focusses on the city of Oslo, Norway, addressing the common need of two departments of the municipality, i.e., the Emergency Department and the Water and Sewage Department. In the present work, we focus on passive seismic records acquired with the objective to quickly locate urban events as well as to continuous monitor changes in the near surface. For this purpose, a seismic network of Raspberry Shake 3D sensors connected to GSM modems, to facilitate real-time data transfer, was deployed in target areas within the city of Oslo in 2021. We present preliminary results of three approaches applied to the continuous data: (1) automatic detection of metro trains, (2) automatic identification of outlier events such as construction and mining blasts, and (3) noise interferometry to monitor the near sub-surface in an area with quick clay. We use a supervised method based on convolutional neural networks trained with visually identified seismic signals on three sensors distributed along a busy metro track (1). Application to continuous data allowed us the reliably detect trains as well as their direction, while not triggering other events. Further development of this approach will be useful to either sort out known repeating seismic signals or to monitor traffic in an urban environment. In approach (2) we aim to detect rare or unusual seismic events using an outlier detection method. A convolutional autoencoder was trained to create dense features from continuous signals for each sensor. These features are used in a one-class support vector machine to detect anomalies. We were able to identify a series of construction and mine blasts, a meteor signal as well as two earthquakes. Finally, we apply seismic noise interferometry to close-by sensor pairs to measure temporal variations in the shallow ground (3). We observe clear seismic velocity variations during periods of strong frost in winter 2021/2022. This opens up for the potential to detect also non-seasonal changes in the ground, for example related to instabilities in quick clay deposits located within the city of Oslo.  

How to cite: Myklebust, E., Köhler, A., and Dichiarante, A. M.: Towards an automatic real-time seismic monitoring system for the city of Oslo, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3601, 2022.

Urban forest provides several important ecosystem services to cite residents and city environment, by which most functions were related to trees’ canopy biomass. To understand the dynamics of canopy biomass affecting the ecosystem services, this study applied and compared two approaches in predicting canopy biomass of Koelreuteria elegans street trees in the city of Taipei in Taiwan. The first approach extracted vegetation indices (VI) from time series data of the 2018 Sentinel-2 satellite images, to represent signals of tree canopy variation, including Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), image classification based on VI time series data was processed to extract pixels with high canopy covers, and examined the associated phenological activities. In contrast, the other approach applied a system dynamic model to capture changes of canopy phenological activities in different seasons by factors of canopy size, leaf duration, and phenology events, all controlled by an accumulated temperature function to characterize green up and defoliation mechanisms. The growth temperature and growth rate of new leaves were calibrated with the phenological records. Results found good correlations between satellite-extracted vegetation indices approach and a temperature-driven phenological modelling. Reconstructed by NDVI and EVI, both indices caught the start of spring growth of Koelreuteria elegans in March to a full-sized canopy in April, with the whole growing season extended to the end of September, and a beginning of main defoliation from October to the lowest canopy size in January and February next year. Built from the image classification results for pure canopy cover, the maximum value of NDVI and EVI was 0.443 and 0.486, while the minimum was 0.08 and 0.163, respectively. In comparison, results from the canopy phenological modelling showed similar trends that canopy biomass reached its lowest point in February, entered to a rapid growth phase in March and reached full canopy size in April. Although the canopy phenological model also predicted a main growing season lasted until October, during the defoliation period, the leaves of the Koelreuteria elegans never completely fell off, due to the actual monthly minimum average temperature in the city of Taipei was higher than 10oC as the threshold of the controlled temperature. Based on these results, we suggest that when ground tree survey and inventory data are available, both satellite-extracted vegetation indices and modelling approach can provide useful predictions for landscape planning and urban forestry management.

How to cite: Pan, W.-C. and Cheng, S.-T.: Predicting and comparing canopy biomass by satellite-extracted vegetation indices and a temperature-driven phenological modelling approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7094, 2022.

EGU22-8095 | Presentations | GI5.5

Mining impact in a coal exploitation under an urban area: detection by Sentinel-1 SAR data 

Jose Cuervas-Mons, María José Domínguez-Cuesta, Félix Mateos-Redondo, Oriol Monserrat, and Anna Barra

In this work, the A-DInSAR techniques are applied in Central Asturias (N Spain). In this area, the presence of the most important cities in the region is remarkable, as well as industry and port infrastructures and a dense road network. Moreover, this region is specially known for their historical coal exploitation, which was developed mainly on the Central Coal Basin for almost 2 centuries, and is being abandoned from the beginning of the 21st. The main aim of this study is detecting and analysing deformations associated to this underground coal mining activity. For this, the following methodology was realised: 1) Acquisition and processing of 113 SAR images, provided by Sentinel-1A and B in descending trajectory between January 2018 and February 2020, by means of PSIG software; 2) Obtaining of Line of Sight mean deformation velocity map (in mm year-1) and deformation time series (in mm); 3) Analysis of detected terrain displacements and definition of mining impact. The results show a Velocity Line of Sigh (VLOS) range between -18.4 and 37.4 mm year-1, and accumulated ground displacements of -69.1 and 75.6 mm. The analysis, interpretation and validation of these ground motion allow us to differentiate local sectors with recent deformation related to subsidence and uplift movements with maximum VLOS of -18.4 mm year-1 and 9.5 mm year-1. This study represents an important contribution to improve the knowledge about deformations produced by impact of coal mining activity in a mountain and urban region. In addition, this work corroborates the reliability and usefulness of the A-DInSAR techniques like powerful tools in the study and analysis of geological hazards at regional and local scales for the monitoring and control of underground mining infrastructures.

How to cite: Cuervas-Mons, J., Domínguez-Cuesta, M. J., Mateos-Redondo, F., Monserrat, O., and Barra, A.: Mining impact in a coal exploitation under an urban area: detection by Sentinel-1 SAR data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8095, 2022.

EGU22-8156 | Presentations | GI5.5

Investigating the carbon biogeochemical cycle at Mt Etna 

Maddalena Pennisi, Simone D'Incecco, Ilaria Baneschi, Matteo Lelli, Antonello Provenzale, and Brunella Raco

The continuous acquisition of CO2 soil flux data has been started on Mt Etna in November 2021, with the aim of assessing a first balance between CO2 from volcanic and biological origin. Our long-term goal is an interdisciplinary study of volcanic, biological, ecological, biogeochemical, climatic and biogeographical aspects, including the anthropogenic impact on the environment. All aspects are integrated in the study of the so-called Critical Zone, i.e. the layer between the deep rock and the top of the vegetation where the main biological, hydrological and geological processes of the ecosystem take place. The new research activity at Mt Etna is performed within the framework of the PON-GRINT project for infrastructure enhancement (EU, MIUR), and it adds up to activities going on at Grand Paradiso National Park (Italian Alps), and Ny Alesund (Svalbard, NO, High Arctic) in the framework of the IGG-CNR Critical Zone Observatories.

During the first phase of the project, two fixed stations were installed in two sites at Piano Bello (Valle del Bove, Milo), in an area where the endemic Genista aetnensis grows. An Eddy Covariance system for net CO2 ecosystem exchange measurement and a weather station will be installed in 2022. Carbon stable isotopes data will be acquired periodically using in-situ instrumentation (i.e. Delta Ray).  The installation sites are selected after CO2 soil flux surveys around the volcano using a portable accumulation chamber. The two stations installed at Piano Bello consist of an automatic accumulation chamber fixed to the ground, a mobile lid with a diffusion infrared sensor for measuring CO2, a data logger and a sensor for measuring soil moisture and temperature. The accumulation chambers are programmed to acquire data on ecosystem respiration every hour for all day. Data are transmitted to the IGG data collection center. The new IGG-CNR Mt Etna CZO will contribute investigating CO2 fluxes at the soil-vegetation-atmosphere interface in different geological and environmental contexts. We benefit from the collaboration with the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), the Ente Parco dell'Etna, and the Dipartimento Regionale dello Sviluppo Rurale e Territoriale di Catania.

How to cite: Pennisi, M., D'Incecco, S., Baneschi, I., Lelli, M., Provenzale, A., and Raco, B.: Investigating the carbon biogeochemical cycle at Mt Etna, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8156, 2022.

Wind turbine (WT) ground motion emissions have a significant influence on sensitive measuring equipment like seismic monitoring networks. WTs permanently excite ground motions at certain constant frequencies due to the eigen modes of the tower and blades as well as the motion of the blades. The emitted waves have frequencies mainly below 10 Hz which are relevant for the observation of, e.g., local tectonic or induced seismicity. Furthermore, frequencies proportional to the blade passing frequency can be observed in ground motion data above 10 Hz, closely linked to acoustic emissions of the turbines. WTs are often perceived negatively by residents living near wind farms, presumably due to low frequency acoustic emissions. Therefore, similarities in ground motion and acoustic data provide constraints on the occurrence of such negatively perceived emissions and possible counter-measures to support the acceptance of WTs.

We study ground motion signals in the vicinity of two wind farms on the Swabian Alb in Southern Germany consisting of three and sixteen WTs, respectively, which are of the same turbine type, accompanied by acoustic measurements and psychological surveys. A part of the measurements is conducted in municipalities near the respective wind farms where residents report that they are affected by emissions. Additional measurements are conducted in the forests surrounding the WTs, and within WT towers. The wind farms are located on the Alb peneplain at 700-800 m height, approximately 300 m elevated compared to the municipalities. Results indicate that WTs are perceived more negatively in the location where the wind farm is closer to the municipality (ca. 1 km) and where other environmental noise sources like traffic occur more frequently. At the location more distant to the WT (ca. 2 km), even though more WTs are installed, residents are affected less. To improve the prediction of ground motion emissions, instruments are set up in profiles to study the amplitude decay over distance, which is linked to the local geology.

This study is supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy based on a resolution of the German Bundestag (03EE2023D).

How to cite: Gassner, L. and Ritter, J.: Ground motion emissions due to wind turbines: Results from two wind farms on the Swabian Alb, SW Germany, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8472, 2022.

EGU22-11008 | Presentations | GI5.5

Preliminary Analysis on Multi-Devices Monitoring of Potential Deep-Seated Landslide in Xinzhuang, Southern Taiwan 

Ji-Shang Wang, Tung-Yang Lai, Yu-Chao Hsu, Guei-Lin Fu, Cheng Hsiu Tsai, and Ting-Yin Huang

In-situ monitoring of slope is crucial for recognizing and recording the occurrence of landslide. Figuring out the correlation between monitoring data and hillslope displacement would help early warning for landslide-induced disasters. Xinzhuang potential deep-seated landslide area has been identified by Taiwan executive authority where is located in Kaohsiung City, southern Taiwan, it covers a 10.3 hectares’ area and 20 buildings with an average slope of 22.8 degrees. The lithology of the upper slope is sand-shale interbedded with highly sand contented, which differs from lower slope in shale with mud contented.

For conducting early warning and comprehending displacement of landslide in this study, the monitoring of ground displacement was carried out using the tiltmeter and the GNSS RTK (Real Time Kinematic), and the hydrology data (rainfall and ground water level) were recorded every 10 minutes by automatic gauges. Furthermore, we executed manual borehole inclinometer measurement to obtain the possible sliding position of subsurface.

This study has been conducted for two years, the results shows that (1) The local shallow creep (4-5 meters underground) in the central deep-seated landslide area was recorded by the tiltmeter, GNSS and borehole inclinometer measurement. (2) The groundwater level is the significant factor for displacements of creep in this site. (3) The velocity of the displacement would be accelerated when the groundwater level was higher than 2.1 meters. (4) The 6-hours displacement has a highly correlation with accumulative rainfall and ground water level. Moreover, the results have been applied to the landslide early-warning system of Taiwan authority.

How to cite: Wang, J.-S., Lai, T.-Y., Hsu, Y.-C., Fu, G.-L., Tsai, C. H., and Huang, T.-Y.: Preliminary Analysis on Multi-Devices Monitoring of Potential Deep-Seated Landslide in Xinzhuang, Southern Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11008, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11008, 2022.

Very often many new construction and operating embankment dams need to be evaluated in terms of the slope stability. The necessity of considering body forces, pore-water pressures, and a variety of soil types in the analysis vitiates the application of methods that are well founded in the mechanics of continua and employ representative constitutive equations.

This study comparing stability analysis using total stress after the end of construction with effective stress couple of years later after the first impounding. Studies have indicated the advantages to be obtained employing an effective stress failure criterion (Bishop, 1952, Henkel and Skempton, 1955 and Bishop, 1960) for analysis and design of embankment dams. Pore-water pressure are determined from piezometer readings during the construction until the dam was operated.

This paper presents the results of stability analysis of embankments dam with both parameters and conditions, resulting that pore water pressures influence slope stability of the embankment.

How to cite: Hartanto, T.: Slope stability analysis of embankment dam under total and effective pore pressure, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11541, 2022.

EGU22-11730 | Presentations | GI5.5

Road surface friction measurement based on intelligent road sensor and machine learning approaches 

Mezgeen Rasol, Franziska Schmidt, and Silvia Ientile

Real prediction of friction coefficient on the road surface is essential in order to enhance the resilience of traffic management procedures for the safety of road users. Critical weather conditions could have a significant impact on the road surface, and decrease the reliable friction coefficient in extreme conditions. Weather parameters are involved in the process of traffic management are water film thickness, ice percentage, pavement temperature, ambient temperature, and freezing point. Smart road monitoring of the road surface friction changes over time means the real-time prediction of the friction coefficient changes in the future based on the intelligent weather road-based sensor is crucial to avoid uncontrolled conditions during extreme weather conditions. For this reason, the use of intelligent data analysis such as machine learning approaches is key in order to provide a holistic robust decision-making tool to support road operators or owners for further consideration of the traffic management procedures. In this study, a machine learning approach is applied to train 18 months of data collected from the real case study in Spain, and results show a good agreement between real friction coefficient and predicted friction coefficient. The trained model has been validated with various cross-validation approaches, and the high accuracy of the model is observed.

This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 769129 (PANOPTIS project).

How to cite: Rasol, M., Schmidt, F., and Ientile, S.: Road surface friction measurement based on intelligent road sensor and machine learning approaches, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11730, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11730, 2022.

EGU22-12263 | Presentations | GI5.5

System identification of a high-rise building: a comparison between a single station measuring translations and rotations, and a traditional array approach. 

Yara Rossi, John Clinton, Eleni Chatzi, Cédric Schmelzbach, and Markus Rothacher

We demonstrate that the extended dynamic response of an engineered structure can be obtained from just a single measurement at one position if rotation is recorded in combination with translation. Such a single station approach could save significant time, effort and cost when compared with traditional structural characterization using arrays. In our contribution we will focus on the monitoring of a high-rise building by tracking its dynamic properties, e.g., natural frequencies, mode shapes and damping. We present the results of the system identification for the Prime Tower in Zurich – with a height of 126 m, this concrete frame structure is the third highest building in Switzerland. It has been continuously monitored by an accelerometer (EpiSensor) and a co-located rotational sensor (BlueSeis) located near the building center on the roof for the past year. The motion on the tower roof includes significant rotations as well as translation, which can be precisely captured by the monitoring station. More than 9 natural frequencies, including the first 3 fundamental modes, as well as the next two overtones, where translations are coupled with rotations, are observed between 0.3 – 10 Hz, a frequency band of key interest for earthquake excitation, making an investigation essential. Using temporary arrays of accelerometers located across the roof and along the length of the building to perform a traditional dynamic characterisation, we can compare the array solution with the new single location solution in terms of system identification for the Prime Tower.

How to cite: Rossi, Y., Clinton, J., Chatzi, E., Schmelzbach, C., and Rothacher, M.: System identification of a high-rise building: a comparison between a single station measuring translations and rotations, and a traditional array approach., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12263, 2022.

EGU22-12901 | Presentations | GI5.5

Creating a spatially explicit road-river infrastructure dataset to benefit people and nature 

Rochelle Bristol, Stephanie Januchowski-Hartley, Sayali Pawar, Xiao Yang, Kherlen Shinebayar, Michiel Jorissen, Sukhmani Mantel, Maria Pregnolato, and James White

Worldwide, roads cross most rivers big and small, but if nobody maps the locations, do they exist? In our experiences, the answer is no, and structures such as culverts and bridges at these road-river crossings have gone overlooked in research into the impacts that infrastructure can have on rivers and the species that depend on them. There remains a need for spatially explicit data for road-river crossings as well as identification of structure types to support research and monitoring that guides more proactive approaches to infrastructure management. Our initial focus was on mapping road-river structures in Wales, United Kingdom so to better understand how these could be impacting on nature, particularly migratory fishes. However, as we began developing the spatial dataset, we became aware of broader applications, including relevance to hazard management and movement of people and goods so to support livelihoods and well-being. In this talk, I will discuss our initial approach to tackling this problem in Wales, and how we learned from that experience and refined the approach for mapping in England, including our use of openly available remotely sensed imagery from Google and Ordnance Survey so to ensure the data can be reused and modified by others for their needs and uses. I will present a spatially explicit dataset of road-river structures in Wales, including information about surrounding environmental attributes and discuss how these can help us to better understand infrastructure vulnerability and patterns at catchment and landscape scales. I will discuss the potential for diverse applications of this road-river structure dataset, particularly in relation to supporting real-time monitoring and providing the baseline data needed for any futuer machine learning or computation modelling advances for monitoring road-river structures.

How to cite: Bristol, R., Januchowski-Hartley, S., Pawar, S., Yang, X., Shinebayar, K., Jorissen, M., Mantel, S., Pregnolato, M., and White, J.: Creating a spatially explicit road-river infrastructure dataset to benefit people and nature, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12901, 2022.

EGU22-860 | Presentations | NH10.15

Ensemble modeling of radionuclide dispersion over the Arabian Peninsula from nuclear power plant accidents using FLEXPART 

Seyed Omid Nabavi, Theodoros Christoudias, Christos Fountoukis, Huda Al-Sulaiti, and Johannes Lelieveld

We intercompare simulations of the dispersion of aerosol and gaseous radionuclides (137Cs and 131I) driven by a four-member ensemble of (re-)analysis and forecast datasets to quantify statistical and systematic uncertainties. The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART 10.4 and FLEXPART-WRF are driven by 6-hourly data from NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and Final Analysis (FNL), at spatial resolutions of 0.5 and 0.25 degrees. In addition, for running FLEXPART-WRF, the FNL and ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) were first downscaled, to the finer resolutions of 10 km and 1 hour, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A total of 365 experiments (each day of 2019) were conducted to produce hourly simulations at the spatial resolution of 10 km in 14 vertical levels through 96 hours after a fictitious nuclear power plant accident at Barakah, UAE, in an effort to study the potential risks to the population in the state of Qatar. The source term was scaled to the maximum estimates of the radioactive materials from the Fukushima accident in 2011 (0.042 kg of 131I and 7 kg of 137Cs), released within 24 hours after the accident. We intercompare radionuclide age spectra, cumulative deposition, and population exposure, seasonal variance, and investigate the degree of variability and correlation between ensemble members. Results show that the computational particles corresponded to dense 131I clouds enter Qatar more frequently within 10 to 20 hours after the accident. The cumulative distribution of simulated 137Cs depositions indicates that more than 80% of 137Cs depositions occurs within 75 hours after the accident, with a hotspot in the southeast of Qatar. GFS and ERA-5 show a high degree of correlation, whereas FNL is different. We also observe seasonal variation due to deposition and boundary layer development.

How to cite: Nabavi, S. O., Christoudias, T., Fountoukis, C., Al-Sulaiti, H., and Lelieveld, J.: Ensemble modeling of radionuclide dispersion over the Arabian Peninsula from nuclear power plant accidents using FLEXPART, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-860, 2022.

The frequency of radionuclides in remote atmospheric observations of historic nuclear test explosions is established from a collection of papers. These report on tests conducted between 1964 and 1996. Most of these tests occurred in the atmosphere but observation of nuclear debris from venting of underground nuclear tests were also found. The review is limited to off-site monitoring and many observations were done at large distances including several tests that were detected on multiple locations on the same hemisphere. The isotope frequency is compared to several radionuclide lists considered for nuclear explosion monitoring to explore whether these lists match the historic evidence. The objective is to identify opportunities for further studies on validating monitoring methods, including atmospheric transport simulations with the objective of identifying the source of an event that is of relevance for atmospheric radioactivity monitoring for the Comprehensive-Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

How to cite: Kalinowski, M.: Frequency of radionuclides in remote atmospheric observations of historic nuclear test explosions compared to lists of radionuclides considered for nuclear explosion monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1490, 2022.

The first aftershock of the announced nuclear test conducted by the DPRK on 09.09.2016 was found by the detection method based on waveform cross correlation on September 11, 2016. This was the only aftershock which was found during the period between the first (09.10.2006) and the sixth (03.09.2017) DPRK tests, using the signals of the DPRK tests as waveform templates. The DPRK6 underground test with mb=6.1 generated a significant aftershock sequence, with some events detected at teleseismic distances. The aftershocks with the best signal quality were used as master events in the multi-master method, working as an active radar focused on the aftershock area. The multi-master method allowed to find more than 100 aftershocks, including 7 aftershocks of the DPRK3 and DPRK4. The aftershock sequence is still active, with 25 aftershocks detected between January 1 and December 10, 2021. The mutual cross correlation of the DPRK aftershocks revealed the presence of two sequences generated by the DPRK5 and DPRK6 cavity collapse. The length, intensity, and alternating character of these two sequences suggest specific mechanisms of energy release. Such a mechanism can be associated with the interaction of the damaged zones of the DPRK5 and DPRK6 and the collapse of their cavities with progressive propagation of the collapsing chimneys towards the free surface. The higher activity in 2021 indicates that the chimney collapse is not finished. We expect more aftershocks, possibly ended with the chimney reaching the free surface.

How to cite: Kitov, I.: Evolution of the DPRK5 and DPRK6 aftershock sequences: 2016 to 2022, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2230, 2022.

EGU22-2246 | Presentations | NH10.15

Sample Association by using Anomalous Concentration Episodes and Decay-Consistent Isotopic Ratios at IMS Radionuclide Stations 

Yuichi Kijima, Martin Kalinowski, Boxue Liu, Jolanta Kuśmierczyk-Michulec, Robin Schoemaker, and Anne Tipka

For enhancement of the International Data Centre (IDC) products such as the Standard Screened Radionuclide Event Bulletin (SSREB), there is a need to associate the detections of CTBT relevant isotopes in samples at International Monitoring System (IMS) radionuclide stations with the same release to characterize its source for the purpose of nuclear explosion monitoring. Episodes of anomalous concentrations at the stations are the best first guess for being related to the same event. For multiple isotope observations, the consistency of their isotopic ratios in subsequent samples with radioactive decay is another plausible hint at coming from the same source. Moreover, atmospheric transport modelling (ATM) will help to get further evidence and gain confidence in sample associations by identifying the air masses that link the release to multiple samples. We focused on the basic approach as well as the criteria for automatic sample association for the SSREB.

How to cite: Kijima, Y., Kalinowski, M., Liu, B., Kuśmierczyk-Michulec, J., Schoemaker, R., and Tipka, A.: Sample Association by using Anomalous Concentration Episodes and Decay-Consistent Isotopic Ratios at IMS Radionuclide Stations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2246, 2022.

EGU22-2581 | Presentations | NH10.15

Towards Assessing the Quality of Surface Wave Associations in the Reviewed Event Bulletin 

John Condon, Neil Selby, and Jessica Keeble

. ABSTRACT
When monitoring for possible underground nuclear tests,
identifying shallow earthquakes from explosive sources can
be achieved using the ratio of the body-wave magnitude to
the surface-wave magnitude (mb:Ms criterion), with explosive
sources producing less energetic surface wave excitation.
Current methods for automated surface-wave detection at the
International Data Centre (IDC) rely on a dispersion test - a
global group-velocity model is used to predict a time window
based on event origins in the IDC Reviewed Event Bulletin
(REB). The data in the predicted time window are narrowband
filtered into eight frequency bands - if the time of the maximum
energy of at least 6/8 of the bands sits within a specified error
of the expected dispersion curves, a surface wave is said to be
detected. Stevens et al. (2001) added phase match filtering to
the process to improve the signal-to-noise ratio, and this was
implemented into provisional operations at the IDC in 2010,
under the name Maxpmf.

A number of issues can potentially arise with this automatic
detection technique, leading to false detections and mis-associations, these include:
• local noise passing the dispersion test and being erroneously associated;
• surface waves detected at close-to-regional distances
experience little dispersion and hence impulsive signals
can pass the dispersion test;
• since automatic detection is only attempted for REB
events, some surface waves may be missed entirely, as
they lack an origin from which to calculate an arrival-time
window.

Assuming random noise and that the signals are independent,
Stevens (2007) defined parameters that determine the false
alarm rate, determined empirically from the network as it was
in 2007. Stevens (2007) recommended that these parameters be
continually reviewed. Since automated surface wave processing
at the IDC was implemented, the number of International
Monitoring System (IMS) seismic stations with at least one
surface-wave detection in the REB has significantly increased
(from around 50 stations in 2002, to around 145 in 2020)
without review of the false alarm rate parameters.
We have designed interactive software to manually review
stages of the IDC automatic surface-wave detection algorithm.
We will use this to investigate the false-detection rate and
how it has changed over time, and interrogate whether the
independence and random noise assumptions this prediction is
predicated on are still valid for a larger network.


REFERENCES
Stevens, J. L., 2007. Automatic surface wave processing support
and documentation, Tech. rep., CTBTO Vienna International
Centre.
Stevens, J. L., Adams, D. A., & Baker, G. E., 2001. Improved
surface wave detection and measurement using phasematched filtering with a global one-degree dispersion model,
Tech. rep., Science Applications International Corp San
Diego CA.

How to cite: Condon, J., Selby, N., and Keeble, J.: Towards Assessing the Quality of Surface Wave Associations in the Reviewed Event Bulletin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2581, 2022.

EGU22-2864 | Presentations | NH10.15

Automatic inspection and analysis of digital waveform images by means of convolutional neural networks 

Alessandro Pignatelli, Francesca D'Ajello Caracciolo, and Rodolfo Console

Analyzing seismic data to get information about earthquakes has always been a major task for seismologists and, more in general, for geophysicists.
Recently, thanks to the technological development of observation systems, more and more data are available to perform such tasks. However, this data
“grow up” makes “human possibility” of data processing more complex in terms of required efforts and time demanding. That is why new technological
approaches such as artificial intelligence are becoming very popular and more and more exploited. In this work, we explore the possibility of interpreting seismic waveform segments by means of pre-trained deep learning. More specifically, we apply convolutional networks to seismological waveforms recorded at local or regional distances without any pre-elaboration or filtering. We show that such an approach can be very successful in determining if an earthquake is “included” in the seismic wave image and in estimating the distance between the earthquake epicenter and the recording station.

How to cite: Pignatelli, A., D'Ajello Caracciolo, F., and Console, R.: Automatic inspection and analysis of digital waveform images by means of convolutional neural networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2864, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2864, 2022.

EGU22-2906 | Presentations | NH10.15

IMS location capability improvement with the ambient noise tomography 

Mikhail Rozhkov, Yuri Starovoyt, and Ivan Kitov

The Preparatory Commission for the CTBTO routinely process data from the International Monitoring System, IMS – a global network of seismic, hydro-acoustic, and infrasound stations. The data are processed to detect, locate, and screen events that may have characterization parameters similar to those from nuclear explosions. The observation and processing systems are required to be sensitive to low-magnitude events, especially in unusual locations (e.g., aseismic regions). A promising way to improve the system sensitivity is by refining the receiver velocity models underneath IMS stations by incorporating a number of ambient noise processing techniques into the International Data Center (IDC) practice. In particular, this approach should lead to reduction of the arrival time residuals between empirical and observed onset times of seismic waves. The Big Data basis for this approach is using a vast amount of seismic noise data acquired in the IDC for more than 20 years. It would also allow to shed a light on the existence of seismic velocity evolution at least for unstable crustal regions applying a time-lapse ambient noise tomography (ANT) method (4D high resolution passive seismic). A lack of reference models can be partially overcome and examining the models within the seismic array aperture can be performed by the convergence of the spatial seismic correlation methods and the local single station measurements - seismic impedance and the direct Rayleigh ellipticity estimations by the H/V ratio and random decrement techniques

We conducted a case study for ARCES IMS array-station in Northern Norway, which consists of 4 rings of all 3C broadband (120s shallow vault   seismometers. Besides building an averaged uppermost ARCES velocity model, we demonstrate the trial application of the ANT methods for the individual model retrieval at different flanks of spatially distributed sensors comprising seismic arrays as a generalized way to aggregating the block velocity models.  Modified spatial autocorrelation (MSPAC) has been applied for ARCES data both for the whole set of elements as well as for four geographically symmetrical sub-groups relative to the array center. Spatial correlation patterns demonstrate the Bessel function (relative to the ground motion frequency) behavior as predicted by Aki (1957). The cross-correlation analysis of the background noise at ARCES was carried out in the wide frequency range because of the broadband hybrid channel frequency response at each array element.  Revealed models demonstrate considerable difference and thus could be further utilized for improvement of event location and as a station specific correction instrument.

Also, we provide an example with the spiral geometry but smaller aperture seismic array in Norcia intermountain basin, Northern Italy. The model estimation based on MSPAC conducted with the medium range sensors provides the results consistent with the well and gravity study conducted in Italy (2019).

For enhancement of CTBTO OSI aftershock monitoring system, the same approach can be utilized by retrofitting velocity models produced with the noise data collected from the temporarily OSI array. The same method could be also implemented in hydrofracking and induced seismicity monitoring.

How to cite: Rozhkov, M., Starovoyt, Y., and Kitov, I.: IMS location capability improvement with the ambient noise tomography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2906, 2022.

EGU22-2971 | Presentations | NH10.15

Seismic Monitoring of Novaya Zemlya: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects 

Tormod Kvaerna, Ben Dando, and Steven Gibbons

The permanent seismic stations of the European Arctic maintain a detection threshold of around magnitude 2 for events on and around Novaya Zemlya. Events above magnitude 3 are clearly observed by multiple stations at regional and far-regional distances and, with improved traveltime models, can be located with high accuracy. The monitoring capability for smaller magnitude events is dominated by the small aperture seismic arrays ARCES and SPITS. We review the properties of Novaya Zemlya seismic signals on key stations and discuss how empirical signal processing may enhance detection and interpretation of future events in the region. We present a joint probabilistic location for 21 low magnitude events between 1986 and 2020 in which the joint probability distribution for all events simultaneously exploits both constraints on earlier events from stations no longer in operation and constraints on newer events from more recently deployed stations. Advances in signal processing, enhanced exploitation of archive data, new permanent stations, and comparative multiple event analysis will all contribute both to a more robust and sensitive detection capability and higher confidence in signal interpretation.

How to cite: Kvaerna, T., Dando, B., and Gibbons, S.: Seismic Monitoring of Novaya Zemlya: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2971, 2022.

There was more than a dozen of aftershocks generated by the announced nuclear test conducted by the DPRK on September 3, 2017 (DPRK6) which were found in routine interactive analysis conducted by the International Data Centre. The first DPRK aftershock was found by the method of waveform cross correlation (WCC) on September 11, 2016 after the DPRK5. Dozens of aftershocks were found by cross correlation after the DPRK6 in addition to those found in the routine processing and then confirmed by IDC analysts. The set of robust aftershocks allowed to develop, test, and apply in the routine WCC processing the multi-master method. This method was consistently applied to seismic data at IMS stations KSRS and USRK collected since 2009. Many new aftershocks were found after the third (DPRK3) and the fourth (DPRK4) announced underground nuclear tests conducted by the DPRK on 12.02.2013, and 06.01.2016, respectively. The second DPRK test (25.05.2009) had no reliable aftershock hypotheses at the level of the method sensitivity and resolution. The largest aftershocks of the DPRK3 and DPRK4 could be interpreted as related to the cavity collapse process possibly followed by a chimney collapse, not reaching the free surface. The DPRK3 and DPRK4 aftershocks were confirmed by interactive analysis.

How to cite: Wang, H. and Kitov, I.: Aftershocks of the announced underground nuclear tests conducted by the DPRK on 12.02.2013 and 06.01.2016 found by waveform cross correlation and confirmed by interactive analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3164, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3164, 2022.

A seismic moment tensor (MT) consisting of 6 independent components is widely used to parameterise a seismic point-source by assuming no net torque. However, there are well-documented seismic sources for which net torques are significant, and single force (SF) components are necessary to describe the physics of the problem, e.g., the collapse of cavities, landslides, and glacier earthquakes. Therefore, combining MT and SF components can explore a broader range of source representation in seismic source inversion. In addition, rigorous uncertainty estimate has been a leading-edge topic in seismic source inversion. A complete uncertainty treatment should consider both data noise involved in the acquisition process and theoretical error primarily due to imperfect knowledge of Earth structure. Recent advancements jointly treating data noise and theoretical errors have been made for the MT representation within the hierarchical Bayesian framework, where noise is treated as a free parameter. However, to our best knowledge, a decomposition of the seismic source to MT and SF, including a rigorous treatment of uncertainty, remains an unaddressed problem. Here, we propose a joint inversion scheme of MT and SF within the hierarchical Bayesian framework that accounts for both data and structural (theory) uncertainties. Several carefully designed synthetic experiments modelling underground explosions demonstrate the feasibility of this method. Our current focus is on practical applications. We are hopeful that our approach will provide further insights into the physics of seismic sources for underground nuclear explosions, thus helping verify compliance with the CTBT.

How to cite: Hu, J., Phạm, T.-S., and Tkalčić, H.: A Joint Point-source Moment Tensor and a Single Force Inversion Within Hierarchical Bayesian Inference for Revealing the Source Mechanism of Underground Nuclear Explosions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3244, 2022.

EGU22-3543 | Presentations | NH10.15

A combined seismic phase classification and back-azimuth regression neural network for array processing pipelines 

Andreas Köhler, Erik Myklebust, and Tord Stangeland

Array processing is routinely used to measure apparent velocity and back-azimuth of seismic arrivals. Being an integral part of automatic processing pipelines for seismic event monitoring at the IDC and NDCs, this processing step usually follows seismic phase detection in continuous data and precedes event association and location. The apparent velocity is used to classify the type of the detected phase, while the measured back-azimuth is assumed to point towards the event epicentre. Phase type and back-azimuth are usually determined under the plane wave assumption using Frequency-Wavenumber (FK) analysis or other wave front fitting algorithms such as Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation (PMCC). However, local inhomogeneities below the seismic array as well as regional sub-surface structures can lead to deviations from the plane wave character and to differences between the measured back-azimuth and the actual source direction. This can also affect the slowness estimates and, thus, the accuracy of phase type classification. Previous attempts to take these issues into account were based for example on empirical array-dependent slowness vector corrections.

Here, we suggest a neural network architecture to learn from past observations and to determine the seismic phase type and back-azimuth directly from the arrival time differences between all combinations of stations of a given array (the co-array), without assuming a certain wavefield geometry. In particular, input data are phase differences measured for multiple frequencies from the cross-spectrum of each co-array element. The neural network is a combined classification (phase type) and regression (back-azimuth) network and is trained using P and S arrivals of over 30,000 seismic events from the reviewed regional bulletins in Scandinavia of the past three decades and seismic noise examples. Hence, phase types are classified without first measuring the apparent velocity and without using pre-set velocity thresholds, and an unbiased back-azimuth is determined pointing directly towards the source. Training data are selected based on coherency thresholds to avoid training with too noisy arrivals included in the bulletins where for example the analysist placed a pick based on additional information. Furthermore, we test augmenting training data with time differences corresponding to plane waves to add source directions which are underrepresented in the bulletins. Models are trained and evaluated for regional seismic phase observations at the ARCES, NORES and SPITS arrays. Very good performance for seismic phase type classification (97% accuracy) and low source back-azimuth misfits were obtained. A systematic and careful test of the performance compared to FK analysis in NORSAR’s automatic processing (FKX) was conducted to evaluate potential improvements for event association and location. Taking the reviewed bulletins as reference, our first results suggest that the machine learning phase classifier performs equally well as FKX processing when it comes to phase classification and better for source back-azimuth estimation.

How to cite: Köhler, A., Myklebust, E., and Stangeland, T.: A combined seismic phase classification and back-azimuth regression neural network for array processing pipelines, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3543, 2022.

EGU22-3620 | Presentations | NH10.15

Natural and anthropogenic excitation sources for seismic and infrasonic on-site calibration 

Michaela Schwardt, Peter Gaebler, Patrick Hupe, and Christoph Pilger

In the low-frequency range down to 0.1 Hz suitable and reliable calibration procedures, which include traceability to SI, for seismic and infrasonic sensors are currently missing. Although many events occur whose evaluation is of global interest, much of the low frequency range relevant to these applications is not yet covered by primary measurement standards. A laboratory calibration of sensors results in an interruption of the measurements, just as the use of built-in calibration coils disturbs the measurements. Therefore, with regard to the design goal of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization’s (CTBTO) International Monitoring System (IMS), which requires the stations to be operational 100 % of the time, on-site calibration during operation with a reference sensor previously calibrated in the laboratory is of special interest.

We have assembled sets of both natural and anthropogenic sources of seismic, infrasonic, and hydroacoustic waves with respect to their individual signal characteristics and, as part of the joint research project "Metrology for low-frequency sound and vibration - 19ENV03 Infra-AUV", evaluated their potential use as excitation signals for on-site calibration regarding aspects that include knowledge about the source characteristics, the frequency content, reproducible and stable properties as well as the applicability in terms of cost-benefit. With the aid of these sources, procedures are to be established which will allow permanent on-site calibration without any interruptions of the recordings, thereby improving data quality and consequently the identification of treaty-relevant events.

In that context, man-made controlled sources such as drop weights or loudspeakers exhibit properties that make them an interesting source signal for the calibration of seismometers and infrasound sensors. Among the natural sources, earthquake generated signals in particular stand out because of their highly suitable signal and spectral properties. In addition, microbaroms and microseisms also play an important role for calibration, since they cover the lowest frequency range of interest. In particular, we focus here on sources that may generate both seismic and infrasonic signals. By means of a joint review of the waves’ sources in the solid earth and the atmosphere, parallels and differences are highlighted. Preliminary comparisons performed with IMS stations PS19 and IS26 in Germany show that the frequency response of different excitation sources can be determined using spectral methods and correlation analyses.

How to cite: Schwardt, M., Gaebler, P., Hupe, P., and Pilger, C.: Natural and anthropogenic excitation sources for seismic and infrasonic on-site calibration, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3620, 2022.

EGU22-3710 | Presentations | NH10.15

Characteristics of hydroacoustic sources of natural and anthropogenic origin 

Christoph Pilger, Andreas Steinberg, Peter Gaebler, and Michaela Schwardt

We report on a review of multiple sources and source characteristics of hydroacoustic signals recorded at the six hydrophone stations of the International Monitoring System for verifying compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.  We present a comprehensive list of hydroacoustic sources as well as their general waveform shape and individual spectral source characteristic, i.e. the time duration, source intensity, frequency content and signal variation.

We identify and investigate numerous natural sources like earthquakes, volcanoes, icebergs and marine mammals as well as anthropogenic sources like explosions, airgun surveys and shipping activity. We show selected example events and associated references, collected in the course of the joint research project "Metrology for low frequency sound and vibration - 19ENV03 Infra-AUV". We further use freely available recordings from e.g. seismic stations for cross-validation purposes.

This overview provides the basis for an open-access systematic source classification, where only few, fragmentary event catalogues are available up to now and in situ identification of sources and calibration of instruments are difficult and complex. This work is applicable to future activities in automatic source detectors and event catalogs, sensor calibration activities using remote excitation sources and data comparison with other hydroacoustic measurements. We invite the scientific community to discuss useful source labels for such a compilation and useful datasets for comparison and validation.

 

 

How to cite: Pilger, C., Steinberg, A., Gaebler, P., and Schwardt, M.: Characteristics of hydroacoustic sources of natural and anthropogenic origin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3710, 2022.

EGU22-5770 | Presentations | NH10.15

Lithospheric scattering and intrinsic attenuation characterization from a Bayesian energy flux model 

Itahisa Gonzalez Alvarez, Sebastian Rost, Andy Nowacki, and Neil Selby

P waves are often used to calculate the yield of chemical or nuclear explosions in forensic seismology. These estimations often rely on amplitude measurements affected by seismic scattering and attenuation caused by the presence of heterogeneities on the scale of the seismic wavelength and seismic energy conversion into heat, both on the source and receiver side. It is therefore important to accurately characterize the effect of these phenomena on the recorded wavefields so that any source size (and type) obtained from them are not under or overestimated.  
In our previous study (González Alvarez et al., 2021), we combined single layer and multi-layer energy flux modeling with a Bayesian inference algorithm to characterize lithospheric small-scale heterogeneities beneath seismic stations or arrays by calculating the characteristic scale length and fractional velocity fluctuations of the crust and lithospheric mantle beneath them. Here, we take this approach further and remove the dependence on the less realistic, single layer energy flux model by including the intrinsic quality factor and its frequency dependence as free parameters into our Bayesian inference algorithm. We use the multi-layer energy flux model to produce synthetic envelopes for 2-layer models of the lithosphere for different values of the scattering and intrinsic attenuation parameters. We then use our improved Bayesian inference algorithm to sample the likelihood space by means of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and obtain posterior probability distributions for all parameters and layers in the model. To our knowledge, such an approach has not been attempted before. We thoroughly tested this inversion algorithm and its sensitivity to four different levels of crustal and lithospheric mantle intrinsic attenuation settings using 18 synthetic datasets. Our results from these tests, while showing complex trade-offs between the parameters, show that scattering parameters can be recovered accurately in most cases. Intrinsic attenuation shows higher variability and non-uniqueness in our inversions, but can generally be recovered for over half of the synthetic models. To further test the accuracy of the results obtained from this Bayesian algorithm, we applied this technique to the large, high-quality dataset from PSAR and IMS arrays ASAR and WRA used in our previous study and found excellent agreement between both approaches in all cases. 
Finally, we applied this technique to datasets of teleseismic earthquakes from several arrays part of the IMS (YKA, ILAR, TXAR, PDAR, BOSA and KURK) to characterize the lithospheric scattering and attenuation structure beneath them and relate our findings to the tectonic setting and history of the regions they are installed on.  

González Álvarez, I.N., Rost, S., Nowacki, A. and Selby, N.D., 2021. Small-scale lithospheric heterogeneity characterization using Bayesian inference and energy flux models. Geophysical Journal International, 227(3), pp.1682-1699.

How to cite: Gonzalez Alvarez, I., Rost, S., Nowacki, A., and Selby, N.: Lithospheric scattering and intrinsic attenuation characterization from a Bayesian energy flux model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5770, 2022.

EGU22-6408 | Presentations | NH10.15

Designing the next generation of seismic arrays using fibre optic DAS 

Ben Dando, Kamran Iranpour, Andreas Wuestefeld, Sven Peter Näsholm, Alan Baird, and Volker Oye

While seismic arrays have been in use since the 1950s and are currently a vital part of the IMS, they have fundamentally consisted of single or 3-component seismometers to measure the ground motion at a discrete set of locations known as the array elements. With the advent of Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) within the last two decades, there is currently great interest in exploring the potential seismological applications. In contrast to traditional seismometers, DAS measures the deformation (e.g. strain-rate) along the length of a fibre optic cable with great flexibility in the number of measurements that can be taken and where they are taken along a given cable layout. Applying such technology to seismic arrays offers an exciting opportunity to design array configurations that were previously impractical with individual seismometers. However, the use of DAS requires special consideration of its unique signal characteristics, which include insensitivity of P-waves arriving broadside to the fibre optic cable.

In this paper we present a design study for the installation of a new fibre optical cable at the site of the existing NORES seismic array in Norway – a 1.4 km aperture array located within a subarray of IMS station PS27 (NOA). We demonstrate through the modelling of DAS-specific array response functions how to optimize a new seismic array for regional seismic monitoring, highlighting the importance of incorporating DAS directivity effects. The final design will be installed in 2022 supplementing the current NORES array and will provide a unique data set that could lead to a new generation of DAS seismic arrays for both regional and global seismic monitoring.

How to cite: Dando, B., Iranpour, K., Wuestefeld, A., Näsholm, S. P., Baird, A., and Oye, V.: Designing the next generation of seismic arrays using fibre optic DAS, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6408, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6408, 2022.

EGU22-7943 | Presentations | NH10.15

The International Data Centre infrasound processing system, a 25 years travel 

Pierrick Mialle and the PTS colleagues

In 2001, when the first data from an International Monitoring System infrasound station started to arrive in near real-time at the International Data Centre (IDC), its infrasound processing system was in a premature state. The IDC embarked for a multi-year design and development of its dedicated processing system, which led to operational IDC automatic processing and interactive analysis systems in 2010. In the next twelve years the IDC produced over 40,000 infrasound events reviewed by expert analysts.
In an effort to continue advancing its methods, improving its automatic system and providing software packages to Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) users, the IDC focused on several projects. First, the automatic system for the identification of valid signals was redesigned with the development of DTK-(G)PMCC (Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation), which is in IDC Operations and made available to CTBTO users within NDC-in-a-Box. And second, an infrasound model was developed for automatic waveform network processing software NET-VISA with an emphasis on the optimization of the network detection threshold by identifying ways to refine signal characterization methodology and association criteria.
Ongoing and future improvements of the IDC processing system are planned to further reduce analyst workload and improve the quality of IDC products.

How to cite: Mialle, P. and the PTS colleagues: The International Data Centre infrasound processing system, a 25 years travel, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7943, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7943, 2022.

Detection of radionuclides released from a nuclear explosion is an essential task mandated by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Atmospheric transport modelling (ATM) identifies either possible source regions for relevant radionuclide observations at anomalous concentrations through the so-called International Monitoring System (IMS) or potential stations for measuring releases from known source locations. This is a well-known methodology for connecting sources and receptors of any substance in the atmosphere. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) currently investigates the potential advantages of using high-resolution ATM. Past announced underground nuclear tests at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) are used in this study to scale the CTBTO’s capability to identify IMS stations that might detect a hypothetical release. These events are also used to identify the capability to locate Punggye-ri as the possible source location.

A sensitivity study is presented that demonstrates the CTBTO’s capability to identify Punggye-ri as a possible source region for the relevant radionuclide measurements at IMS stations. The aim is to find the best model set-up from varying combinations of meteorological resolution, regional domain set-up, and physical parameterization. Variations in resolution are accomplished by using first the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model FLEXPART, which will be driven by meteorological fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) with either 0.5° or 0.1° spatial and 1 h temporal resolution; and second, by using a combination of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and FLEXPART-WRF to scale down to 1 km spatial resolution. The potential accuracy increase is evaluated by using metrics from previous ATM challenges.

How to cite: Tipka, A., Kuśmierczyk-Michulec, J., Schoemaker, R., and Kalinowski, M.: A demonstration of CTBTO’s capability to identify the possible source region of the specific case of DPRK announced tests by conducting a sensitivity study using high-resolution ATM, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8514, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8514, 2022.

EGU22-8689 | Presentations | NH10.15

Quality assessment of the different Possible Source Region (PSR) algorithms 

Jolanta Kusmierczyk-Michulec, Anne Tipka, Robin Schoemaker, and Martin Kalinowski

The operational Atmospheric Transport Modelling (ATM) system deployed and used at CTBTO produces source receptor sensitivity (SRS) fields, which specify the location of the air masses prior to their arrival at any radionuclide station of the International Monitoring System (IMS) network. The ATM computations support the radionuclide technology by providing a link between radionuclide detections and the regions of their possible source. If an IMS station detects an elevated level of radionuclide, the ATM in a backward mode is used to identify the origin of air masses. In the case of a single detection, the FOR (Field of Regard) is computed, which denotes the possible source region for a material detected within one single sample. On some occasions, multiple detections occur at one or more IMS stations. Depending on the nature of these detections and on prevailing meteorological conditions, it is possible that all these detections may come from a unique source. For this case, the PSR (Possible Source Region) is computed for each grid point in space and time by calculating the correlation coefficients between the measured and simulated activity concentration values (SRS fields). Obviously, the result will depend on the algorithms used for that purpose. Currently, in the WEB-connected GRAPhics Engine (WEB-GRAPE) software, designed and developed by the International Data Centre (IDC) to visualize and post-process of the ATM results, three different PSR algorithms are implemented: two based on the Pearson’s correlation coefficient and one based on the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. 

 

For the quality assessment of these PSR algorithms, subsets of datasets developed in the framework of the 2nd and 3rd ATM Challenge will be used, which satisfy the condition that the agreement between Xe-133 measured and simulated values is very good. In this sense, the selected samples will represent “ground truth” data, where the contribution from all dominated sources (e.g. Isotope Production Facilities or Nuclear Power Plants) is included. For these selected samples, the results produced by the different PSRs algorithms will be assessed, taking into account both spatial and temporal variations.  

 

How to cite: Kusmierczyk-Michulec, J., Tipka, A., Schoemaker, R., and Kalinowski, M.: Quality assessment of the different Possible Source Region (PSR) algorithms, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8689, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8689, 2022.

EGU22-9074 | Presentations | NH10.15

CalxPy: a software for the calibration of geophysical systems against a reference 

Benoît Doury and Ichrak Ketata

The International Monitoring Systems (IMS) operational manuals for waveform stations require that IMS stations be calibrated regularly. Since 2012, the Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) had relied mostly on electrical calibration to meet that requirement. However electrical calibration has inherent challenges (no traceability, integration and sustainment issues, high operating costs…).

A part of the geophysical community, including Station Operators, has started performing regular calibrations by comparison against a co-located reference. This method allows a more systematic and centralized approach to calibration. Over the past few years, it has been increasingly used at IMS stations, particularly infrasound ones. In this context, the PTS is developing tools to support this alternative approach.

We present CalxPy, a web-application developed at the PTS for the calibration of geophysical systems by comparison. With CalxPy, one can calculate, store, and display the response of a system for a given period, or track the evolution of the response against time or environmental variables. CalxPy also allows the refinement and evaluation of the measured response against a baseline, and the reporting of calibration results.

CalxPy supports the Initial calibration and on-site yearly calibration processes, as well as data quality control. CalxPy can be deployed in the IDC pipeline and in NDC-in-a-box.

How to cite: Doury, B. and Ketata, I.: CalxPy: a software for the calibration of geophysical systems against a reference, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9074, 2022.

EGU22-10097 | Presentations | NH10.15

Improving event location accuracy at the IDC using RSTT-based travel time corrections 

Christos Saragiotis, Ronan Le Bras, and Ali Kasmi

Prediction of seismic travel times at the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) has been based until recently on the one-dimensional IASPEI91 travel-time curves for teleseismic and regional phases, with the addition of some local or regional models for regional and local phases in some areas (North America and Eurasia). Since IASPEI91 is not universally applicable in a heterogeneous Earth, travel-time predictions are further corrected to account for, among others, the Earth’s ellipticity, station elevation, and source-specific effects, including regional geology.

In order to improve travel time predictions, especially for regional phases for which the prediction error is most prominent, the IDC is now using travel time corrections based on the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) velocity model first introduced by Lawrence Livermore National Labs to account for the source-specific effects. The RSTT velocity model is a global model that approximates a 3D crust and upper mantle and is based on ground truth (GT) events recorded globally.

Examination of one year (August 2020 until August 2021) of the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) shows that the use of these RSTT-based travel time corrections has improved the precision of event location as measured by a) travel time residuals of regional phases, b) the number of defining regional phases according to the stringent IDC event definition criteria and c) comparison of events similar in magnitude and location in the periods before and after the application of the RSTT-based corrections. Although the improvement is seen worldwide, it is more prominent for stations in areas such as Australia and Africa, where previously the travel time corrections were based only on the IASPEI91 curves, that is, there were no local or regional velocity models available.

How to cite: Saragiotis, C., Le Bras, R., and Kasmi, A.: Improving event location accuracy at the IDC using RSTT-based travel time corrections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10097, 2022.

EGU22-13165 | Presentations | NH10.15

Interactive analysis prospective on implementation of the NET-VISA in the IDC bulletin production 

Ehsan Qorbani, Sherif M. Ali, Ronan Le Bras, and Gérard Rambolamanana

Data from the stations of the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) organization are being processed by automatic processing, Global Association (GA), and interactively analyzed and reviewed by analysts, resulting in the International Data Centre (IDC) bulletins. The Network Processing Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis (NET-VISA) is a Bayesian seismic monitoring system designed to process data from the IMS to reduce the number of missed and false events in the automatic processing stage. NET-VISA has been implemented in the automatic process as an additional event scanner in operation at the IDC since January 15, 2018. In this study we assess the influence of NET-VISA automatic scanner on the number of events in the IDC bulletins, LEB (Late Event Bulletin) and REB (Reviewed Event Bulletin). In particular, the impact of NET-VISA scanner on the number of scanned events during the interactive analysis is assessed. We use three distinct time periods, each including 1200 days, two before and one after the NET-VISA implementation to evaluate the NET-VISA influence as well as the effect of the other possible factors such as global seismicity and network performance. The results show a 4.6% increase in the number of LEB events after including the NET-VISA scanner in operation, with an average of 7 events per day, and a notable increase of 17.90% in the number of scanned events. We also discuss the effect of other possible factors on such increase and conclude it can be attributed to the implementation of the NET-VISA scanner.

How to cite: Qorbani, E., Ali, S. M., Le Bras, R., and Rambolamanana, G.: Interactive analysis prospective on implementation of the NET-VISA in the IDC bulletin production, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13165, 2022.

EGU22-13389 | Presentations | NH10.15 | Highlight

Global cross-technology analysis of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai explosive eruption from the perspective of CTBT monitoring 

J. Ole Ross, Lars Ceranna, Stefanie Donner, Peter Gaebler, Patrick Hupe, Thomas Plenefisch, Christoph Pilger, Michaela Schwardt, and Andreas Steinberg

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty prohibits all nuclear explosions. For detection of potential non-compliance, the International Monitoring System with 321 stations is being installed and largely completed. Seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasound stations detect, localize and characterize explosions. Highly sensitive radionuclide stations sniff for radioactive traces potentially released from nuclear explosions. The International Data Centre (IDC) in Vienna processes the IMS data and generates several standard data analysis products for distribution to the member states. However, the judgement on the character of potentially treaty relevant events it is the sole responsibility of the State Signatories. Therefore, National Data Centres (NDC) are established in many states. The German National Data Centre is hosted by BGR and supported by BfS (Federal Office for Radiation Protection) with radionuclide expertise. Furthermore NDCs can use additional observation data sources other than recorded by the IMS like national stations or remote sensing data. There have been several larger test cases for the verification system as the announced nuclear tests in the DPRK 2006-2017, the Fukushima-Daiichi radionuclide emissions 2011, the Chelyabinsk meteorite 2013 or the accidental explosion in Beirut 2020.

Recently, the very large eruption of the Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai volcano occurred on January 15th 2022 in the South Pacific Ocean and turned out to be a strong source of waveform phenomena in solid earth, water and atmosphere.

Seismic PKP phases travelling through the core of the Earth were the first seismic signal of the event registered at German IMS station PS19 and the national Gräfenberg array. A preliminary moment tensor inversion analysis for P- and S-Phases shows the mainly explosive character of the event. Sensors of the hydro-acoustic component of the IMS also recorded the main eruption as well as ancillary volcanic activity at the two hydrophone arrays in the Pacific Ocean up to nearly 10000 km distance. The eruption caused a long period atmospheric pressure wave even measurable with classical barometers and pressure sensors in smartphones around the globe. Consequently, all 53 certified IMS infrasound stations detected signals from the event. Recurrent infrasonic signatures travelled around the globe several times and were recorded by IMS stations in the following days. The eruption was presumably the strongest infrasound source since installation of the IMS started.

Finally, the atmospheric sensitivity of the IMS radionuclide stations to hypothetical releases connected with the eruption is investigated by means of Atmospheric Transport Modelling. The results show threshold values for detectable releases of radioactive fission and activation products.

Overall, the very huge volcanic eruption can serve as upper benchmark event for the CTBT compliance monitoring capability using cross-technology analysis of IMS data.

How to cite: Ross, J. O., Ceranna, L., Donner, S., Gaebler, P., Hupe, P., Plenefisch, T., Pilger, C., Schwardt, M., and Steinberg, A.: Global cross-technology analysis of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai explosive eruption from the perspective of CTBT monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13389, 2022.

EGU22-13421 | Presentations | NH10.15 | Highlight

CTBTO International Data Centre analysis of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption 

Pierrick Mialle, Ronan Le Bras, and Paulina Bittner and the CTBTO Colleagues

Almost 20 years ago, the first infrasound event built only from infrasound arrivals was reported in the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) of the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). Over the last 25 years, 53 infrasound stations from the International Monitoring System (IMS) have been installed and are transmitting data to the IDC for the purpose of detecting any nuclear explosions in the atmosphere. The infrasound component of the IMS daily registers infragenic signals originating from various sources such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, microbaroms, meteorite entering the atmosphere or explosions. The IDC routinely and automatically processes infrasound data with the objective to detect and locate events then reviewed by interactive analysis.

As the IDC advances its methods and continuously improves its automatic system for the infrasound technology, several events received global interest from the scientific community and the public. On 15 February 2013 the Chelyabinsk meteor entered the atmosphere over Ural region (Russian Federation) and generated infrasound waves that were recorded by 20 of the 42 infrasound IMS stations operating at the time. Almost 9 years later, on 15 January 2022 the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption reached a climax around 04:15 UTC, which generated acoustic waves circumnavigating the Earth for several days. In addition to seismic and hydro-acoustic recordings, all 53 IMS infrasound stations registered signals from this eruption. This event is the largest ever recorded by the infrasound component of the IMS network.

How to cite: Mialle, P., Le Bras, R., and Bittner, P. and the CTBTO Colleagues: CTBTO International Data Centre analysis of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13421, 2022.

SM3 – Real-time and time dependent seismology

Kamchatka, a remote peninsula in eastern Russia, is home to the Kluchevskoy volcano group, one of the largest and most active clusters of subduction zone volcanoes worldwide. Regular eruptions, volcanic and tectonic earthquakes, but also strong meteorological variations leave an imprint on the regional seismic velocity structure. We quantify the temporal velocity variations by applying the method of ambient seismic noise interferometry to waveform data recorded by the temporary KISS deployment and the permanent Kamchatka network. Due to its ubiquitous nature, ambient seismic noise allows for far denser temporal sampling than, e.g., active source or earthquake coda interferometry. However, source variability related, for example, to volcanic tremor activity affects the results retrieved by this method and can lead to decreased reliability. Here, we investigate the impact of the aforementioned environmental factors on the Green’s function of the medium using SeisMIC (Seismological Monitoring using Interferometric Concepts) – a new Python software to conduct noise interferometry surveys. In addition, we discuss the impact of the frequent volcanic tremors and other local seismic events on the stability of the computed Green’s function estimations (i.e., cross-correlations).

How to cite: Makus, P., Sens-Schönfelder, C., Tilmann, F., and Walter, T. R.: Deciphering the Contributions of Volcanic and Environmental Events to Temporal Variations of the Regional Velocity Structure at the Kluchevskoy Volcano Group (Kamchatka, Russia), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-181, 2022.

EGU22-252 | Presentations | SM3.1

Matched Field processing for complex Earth structure 

Sven Schippkus and Céline Hadziioannou

Matched Field Processing (MFP) is a technique to locate the source of a recorded wave field. It is the generalisation of beamforming, allowing for curved wavefronts. In the standard approach to MFP, simple analytical Green's functions are used as synthetic wave fields that the recorded wave fields are matched against. We introduce an advancement of MFP by utilising Green's functions computed numerically for real Earth structure as synthetic wave fields. This allows in principle to incorporate the full complexity of elastic wave propagation, and through that provide more precise estimates of the recorded wave field's origin. This approach also further emphasises the deep connection between MFP and the recently introduced interferometry-based source localisation strategy for the ambient seismic field. We explore this connection further by demonstrating that both approaches are based on the same idea: both are measuring the (mis-)match of correlation wave fields. To demonstrate the applicability and potential of our approach, we present two real data examples, one for an earthquake in Southern California, and one for secondary microseism activity in the Northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. We provide an accompanying simple code example to illustrate the method on github.

How to cite: Schippkus, S. and Hadziioannou, C.: Matched Field processing for complex Earth structure, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-252, 2022.

EGU22-738 | Presentations | SM3.1 | Highlight

Fluid migrations and volcanic earthquakes from depolarized ambient noise 

Luca De Siena and Simona Petrosino

Ambient noise polarizes inside fault zones, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of polarized noise on gas-bearing fluids migrating through stressed volcanic systems is unknown. At Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy), high polarization marks a transfer structure connecting the deforming centre of the caldera to open hydrothermal vents and extensional caldera-bounding faults during periods of low seismic release. Fluids pressurize the Campi Flegrei hydrothermal system, migrate, and increase stress before earthquakes. The loss of polarization (depolarization) of the transfer and extensional structures maps pressurized fluids, detecting fluid migrations after seismic sequences. After recent intense seismicity (December 2019-April 2020), the transfer structure appears sealed while fluids stored in the east caldera have moved further east. Our findings show that depolarized noise has the potential to monitor fluid migrations and earthquakes at stressed volcanoes quasi-instantaneously and with minimum processing.

How to cite: De Siena, L. and Petrosino, S.: Fluid migrations and volcanic earthquakes from depolarized ambient noise, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-738, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-738, 2022.

EGU22-2170 | Presentations | SM3.1

Monitoring long term seismic velocity changes in the Apennines region (ITALY) 

Nour Mikhael, Piero Poli, and Stephane Garambois

Continuous noise-based monitoring of seismic velocity variations in the Earth’s crust could reveal crucial information about some of its dynamic processes and has a versatile applications. We investigate temporal velocity variations (dv/v) to probe the physical properties of seismogenic fault volumes, in the central Appennines. We aim to gain new insights into the physics of earthquake cycles along with transient tectonic deformations and shed new light into the depth dependent rheology of the crust. We perform velocity variation measurements on seismic noise autocorrelations over a period of 13 years for several lapse time coda windows, using the wavelet transform approach. A Markov chain Monte Carlo approach is finally used for the retrieval of dv/v time series, with daily resolution, at each of the Italian seismic station. Our results capture the evolution of dv/v prior and after the 2009 Mw 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake, the 2016 – 2017 central Italy earthquake sequence and during aseismic deformation episodes. We further observe signatures of several other processes as water level variation in the crust and loading (releases) related with climatic forcings. The detailed analysis of our high-temporal resolution dv/v time series, combined with geodetic and other seismological observables, permits to quantitatively assess the pre- and post-seismic processes, and the changes of crustal properties during episodes of aseismic deformation in shallow normal faults. 

How to cite: Mikhael, N., Poli, P., and Garambois, S.: Monitoring long term seismic velocity changes in the Apennines region (ITALY), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2170, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2170, 2022.

EGU22-2984 | Presentations | SM3.1

Temporal Variations of Shallow Material Properties During the Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence 

Reza D. D. Esfahani, Fabrice Cotton, and Fabian Bonilla

 Strong ground motion can generate a large dynamic strain in shallow materials, lead to a nonlinear response, and cause permanent damage in near-surface materials. The nonlinear behavior of soils subjected to strong vibrations leads to an increase in wave attenuation and a decrease in shear modulus. These effects lead to a decrease in the resonance frequency of the soil and a decrease in the propagation speed of S-waves. This work investigates, using deconvolution and autocorrelation methods, “in situ” seismic velocity changes and predominant ground-motion frequency evolution during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence. The Kumamoto sequence contains two major foreshocks (Mw6, Mw6.2) and a mainshock (Mw7.2) that occurred 24 hours after the last foreshock. We present results of the seismic velocity evolution during this sequence for seismological records collected by Kik-Net and K-Net stations between 2002 to 2020. The results indicate that nonlinearity response is profoundly occurring in the damaged material close to the surface. We quantify these velocity reductions occurring during the mainshock and show that the healing process lasted about three months after the mainshock. We finally quantify the relationships between velocity changes, ground-motion predominant frequency variations, and site condition characteristics (Vs30).  

How to cite: D. D. Esfahani, R., Cotton, F., and Bonilla, F.: Temporal Variations of Shallow Material Properties During the Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2984, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2984, 2022.

EGU22-3479 | Presentations | SM3.1 | Highlight

SANS: Publicly available daily seismic ambient noise source maps on a regional to global scale 

Jonas Igel, Daniel Bowden, and Andreas Fichtner

To improve methods in full-waveform ambient noise tomography and monitoring it is important to have knowledge of the spatio-temporal variations of the noise source distribution. Without this knowledge, an uneven distribution of sources may bias observations, and a changing source distribution may be falsely interpreted as subsurface velocity changes. By combining two methods to locate noise sources and decreasing the computational cost, we are able to invert for the global noise source distribution of the secondary microseisms on a daily basis. Additionally, we present a web framework where the Seismic Ambient Noise Source (SANS) maps are made available to the public. 

Many different methods to locate ambient noise sources have been developed. Bowden et al. (2021) show how a more data-driven Matched-Field Processing (MFP) approach and a more rigorous finite-frequency sensitivity kernel method can be derived from one another.  Igel at al. (2021) implement spatially variable grids and pre-computed wavefields to make the finite-frequency inversion more efficient. This has made daily inversions on a regional to global scale feasible for secondary microseismic noise sources in a frequency range from 0.1 to 0.2 Hz. Since the inversion approach allows for prior information to be implemented, we use the more efficient MFP method to create an initial model and steer the inversion in the right direction. 

In collaboration with the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS) we are able to run this workflow on a daily basis. The resulting noise source maps are subsequently made available to the public through our web framework SANS. A user can look through all iterations of the inversions, download all model and inversion files, and implement them in their own methods. Additionally, code is provided to help the user create plots and simplify the implementation in other studies. We are looking for collaboration with ambient noise tomography studies to investigate how the implementation of noise source maps could potentially improve the resulting structure models.

How to cite: Igel, J., Bowden, D., and Fichtner, A.: SANS: Publicly available daily seismic ambient noise source maps on a regional to global scale, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3479, 2022.

EGU22-3653 | Presentations | SM3.1

Effect of dense array shapes and directional incidence on seismic surface wave focal spot imaging results 

Bruno Giammarinaro, Christina Tsarsitalidou, Gregor Hillers, and Pierre Boué

Converging surface wave fields create a large-amplitude feature at the origin referred to as focal spot. Its properties are governed by local medium properties and have long been used in medical imaging approaches such as passive elastography. Modern dense seismic arrays consisting of many hundreds of sensors now allow the application of noise correlation-based focal spot imaging in seismology where they can be obtained from the zero-lag correlation amplitude field. We demonstrated the feasibility of using the Vertical-Vertical and Vertical-Radial components of the focal spot to estimate the Rayleigh wave speed. Azimuthal averaging mitigates anisotropic incidence, which is compatible with related SPAC results in the literature. An important aspect of focal-spot imaging is the emphasis on data collected in the near-field. A clean azimuthal average may be difficult to estimate if sensors are not isotropically distributed around the origin. For this case, an extended description of the seismic interferometry coherence function was developed, that was subsequently extended for mixed components in the SPAC formulation. The objective of the present study is to investigate the resolution power of this new expansion on Rayleigh wave speed estimations in the case of various array shapes and for directional incidence. We perform numerical experiments using an equivalent time-reversal approach to synthesize Rayleigh wave focal spots in an elastic half-space from Green’s functions computed with the AXITRA solver. Simulations are performed using a square 85 x 85 receiver grid separated by 8 m and 72 time-reversal mirror elements that are located at the surface, on a circle, 12 km away from the origin. The regular grid is then adapted to obtain different aspect ratios of the compact, dense array, varying from a 1:1 to a 1:5 ratio. We measure the discrepancy of the imposed Rayleigh wave speed of 2 km/s and the estimates using said 2D parametrization of the amplitude field. We vary systematically the angle of incidence, from 0° (North) to 90° (East), the strength of the anisotropy, the relative position of the origin to the array center, and the frequency between 1 Hz and 10 Hz. Consequently, the ratio of wavelength to array size varies between 0.7 and 33. We illustrate some of our numerical examples with focal spots obtained from USArray data in the 60 s to 120 s period range. The results show that the error on estimations for the Vertical-Vertical components under strong anisotropic incidence is reduced from 12% to less than 1% using the specific expansion. These small values suggest that Rayleigh wave focal spot imaging can robustly be applied for a wider range of array shapes and characteristics of the surface wave field from which the correlation functions are constructed. Further investigations considering biases such as incoherent noise or body wave components are needed to complete the analysis. 

 

How to cite: Giammarinaro, B., Tsarsitalidou, C., Hillers, G., and Boué, P.: Effect of dense array shapes and directional incidence on seismic surface wave focal spot imaging results, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3653, 2022.

EGU22-3956 | Presentations | SM3.1

Mitigating array-induced bias in ambient noise beamforming 

Katrin Löer and Claudia Finger

We show that the geometry of a seismic array affects estimates of velocity and propagation direction of ambient seismic noise wavefields measured with beamforming techniques. We demonstrate how this results in apparent anisotropy estimates and present first approaches to mitigate the effect.

Beamforming is an array technique originating from earthquake seismology that has become increasingly popular to analyse the ambient noise wavefield with the goal to characterise ambient noise sources (e.g., regions of origin of Love and Rayleigh waves) as well as subsurface structures (shear-velocity profiles, fracture orientation). Beamforming techniques estimate the dominant velocity, direction of propagation, and (in case of three-component data) the polarisation of a wavefield recorded within a limited time window at a seismic array. An important parameter in beamforming is the array response function, which shows the response of an array to a wave that is arriving directly from below. It can be thought of as the fingerprint of the array and depends on the array geometry, i.e., number of stations, station spacing, and orientation of station pairs. A biased array can lead to oversampling of certain directions and, thus, prioritising them in the beamform heatmap.

The first attempt to mitigate the influence of the array focuses on analysing the orientation of station pairs in an array and applying a weighting matrix in order to enhance contributions from orientations that are underrepresented. This approach leads to a modified array response function, that looks more regular and has the fingerprint of the array partly removed. Using synthetic data and different array geometries we demonstrate the effect on the estimated anisotropy.

The second approach is based on simulating synthetic, isotropic wavefield recordings at an array of choice and measuring their dominant velocities and propagation directions using beamforming. Comparing expected and observed values shows that the effect of the array can be significant, in particular when multiple sources act simultaneously (as is often the case for ambient noise): both measured velocities and propagation directions are affected by the design of the array, leading to erroneous anisotropy estimates. Once we have an estimate of array-induced anisotropy, however, we can subtract it from the anisotropy measured in real data and thereby reduce the effect. Examples for different array geometries are presented and compared.

How to cite: Löer, K. and Finger, C.: Mitigating array-induced bias in ambient noise beamforming, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3956, 2022.

EGU22-4424 | Presentations | SM3.1 | Highlight

Towards seismic velocity monitoring using anthropogenic seismic signals 

Yixiao Sheng, Aurélien Mordret, Korbinian Sager, Florent Brenguier, Pierre Boué, Baptiste Rousset, Frank Vernon, and Yehuda Ben-Zion

Anthropogenic seismic signals attract more and more attention in recent years. Freight trains, among different seismic sources, are of particular interest for seismic velocity monitoring due to several advantages. Trains are persistent, powerful sources that generate seismic tremors equivalent to Mw 2 earthquakes and detectable up to 100 km distance; trains move along fixed trajectories, allowing us to properly account for the source distribution and its coupling between the structure; trains generate high-frequency body-wave energy enabling us to focus on the changes at depth with high spatial resolution. We propose a fault zone monitoring framework through a case study in southern California. Freight trains running through the Coachella Valley are used to monitor changes associated with the San Jacinto Fault. The general steps include identifying sources and constructing a train catalog, extracting body waves through seismic interferometry, measuring travel-time perturbation, and mapping seismic velocity change. We analyze the seismic data from 2010 to 2020 and discover an episode of velocity changes in early 2014, manifested on all station pairs considered. The velocity perturbation shows a complicated spatial pattern, with some station pairs exhibiting positive changes, and others negative changes. We interpret that this velocity perturbation results from an aseismic slip near the edge of the Anza seismic gap and further validate this idea using numerical simulations. We use the Coulomb software to simulate volumetric strain for velocity perturbation and full-waveform modeling to simulate correlation functions for estimating travel-time change. The proposed framework has great potentials to be applied in other settings, from wastewater injection to CO2 sequestration, using freight trains or other type of anthropogenic sources.

How to cite: Sheng, Y., Mordret, A., Sager, K., Brenguier, F., Boué, P., Rousset, B., Vernon, F., and Ben-Zion, Y.: Towards seismic velocity monitoring using anthropogenic seismic signals, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4424, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4424, 2022.

Seismic noise above 2 Hz band would interfere with the lower frequency output from 3rd generation gravitational wave interferometers.
Sos Enattos, Sardinia, is a potential site for the future Einstein Telescope, which will be built hundreds of meters underground. To characterise one aspect of the seismic field at this potential site, I examined trends in wind speed, direction, and seismic noise. Elevated seismic energy across a broad range of frequencies occurs when wind speeds are higher. At frequencies below 1 Hz, sources appear to be regional (ocean generated microseisms). At 1-50Hz, local sources dominate. Deeper, the effects of local wind-generated noise are reduced and masked by other noise sources.

How to cite: Ensing, J.: Wind generates seismic noise at Sos Enattos, Sardinia, potential site for the Einstein Telescope., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4434, 2022.

The mantle transition zone is delineated by seismic discontinuities at approximately 410-km and 660-km depth. The lateral variations in reflectivity and depth of the two seismic discontinuities reflect changes in mineralogy composition, thermal state, and water content, that is key to understanding the Earth’s dynamics. Traditional imaging methods based on the analysis of earthquake signals, such as seismic tomography and receiver function analysis, are often limited by earthquake occurrence and uncertainties related to the earthquake source parameters. Recent studies demonstrated the feasibility of recovering body waves from noise correlations, providing new prospects for imaging deep Earth [e.g., Poli et al., 2012; Boué et al., 2013]. 

In this study, we map the 410-km and 660-km discontinuities beneath the European Alps using reflected body waves recovered from noise correlations. To that end, we compute noise correlations using four years of continuous recordings from ∼1200 broadband stations in the greater Alpine region. To enhance the signal-to-noise ratio of the body-wave reflection phases, for each station pair, we stack daily noise correlations in selected time spans with a high level of near vertical-incident body waves and less dominant surface waves [Lu et al., 2021]. We further stack noise correlations of station pairs with common/nearby reflection points to obtain local zero-offset reflection waveforms. The retrieved P410P and P660P reflection phases clearly reveal lateral variations of both reflectivity and depth of the two discontinuities in the studied region, providing new constraints in addition to existing results from earthquake tomography and receiver function analysis. Besides, this study also sheds light on the strategies to recover deep reflection phases from noise correlations.

[1] Boué, P., Poli, P., Campillo, M., Pedersen, H., Briand, X., & Roux, P., 2013. Teleseismic correlations of ambient seismic noise for deep global imaging of the Earth, Geophys. J. Int., 194(2), 844-848.

[2] Lu, Y., Pedersen, H.A., Stehly, L., and AlpArray Working Group, 2022. Mapping the seismic noise field in Europe: spatio-temporal variations in wavefield composition and noise source contributions, Geophys. J. Int., 228(1), 171-192.

[3] Poli, P., Campillo, M., Pedersen, H., and L. W. Grp, 2012. Body-wave imaging of Earth’s mantle discontinuities from ambient seismic noise, Science, 338(6110), 1063-1065.

How to cite: Lu, Y. and Bokelmann, G.: Mapping the 410-km and 660-km discontinuities across the European Alps using noise correlations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4747, 2022.

EGU22-5392 | Presentations | SM3.1

4D physics-based pore pressure monitoring in the shallow subsurface of Groningen, the Netherlands 

Eldert Fokker, Elmer Ruigrok, Rhys Hawkins, and Jeannot Trampert

We previously developed a physics-based model relating changes in pore pressure and vertical stress to seismic velocity variations and validated the model in a small area of Groningen gas field. Using the entire Groningen seismic network, near-surface velocity changes are estimated over a three-year period, using passive image interferometry. Using our developed model, we invert these observations of velocity change for pore pressure variations as a function of space and time, and thus we construct a 4D pore pressure model for the shallow subsurface of Groningen. Pressure-head recordings in the southeastern region of Groningen allow us to calibrate our inference tool.

How to cite: Fokker, E., Ruigrok, E., Hawkins, R., and Trampert, J.: 4D physics-based pore pressure monitoring in the shallow subsurface of Groningen, the Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5392, 2022.

EGU22-6275 | Presentations | SM3.1

Groundwater monitoring for the Maltese Islands from ambient seismic noise correlations 

Luca Laudi, Matthew R. Agius, Pauline Galea, Sebastiano D'Amico, Martin Schimmel, and Thomas Lecocq

Malta, a small island nation in the centre of the Mediterranean, is deemed as the European country facing the highest stress on its water resources. Malta has a semi-arid climate with approximately 550 mm of annual rainfall over an area of ∼315 km2 and a very high population density. Consequently, 80% of the water used in the Maltese agricultural sector is directly abstracted from groundwater resources via boreholes or underground galleries. To improve the groundwater monitoring in Malta, which currently depends on a network of in situ borehole readings, we analyse ambient seismic noise data recorded on the Malta Seismic Network (MSN) as part of the project SIGMA (Seismic Imaging of Groundwater for Maltese Aquifers). We investigate temporal changes in seismic velocity as an indication of the variability of water in underground rocks. Water-saturated rocks have an increased pore pressure, which, in turn, leads to the opening of cracks in the rock that reduces the contact area between different grains of rock leading to a decrease in seismic velocity.

 

We compiled the seismic data from each station of the MSN (Galea et al., 2021, SRL) and the FASTMIT experiment (Bozionelos et al., 2019, Xjenza) consisting of a combination of eight broadband and six short-period, three-component seismic stations for the years 2017-2020. The data was pre-processed by demeaning, tapering and merging into a 1-day long trace, which were then band-pass filtered and decimated or downsampled. Power Spectral Density (PSD) charts for the data show that most microseisms energy has a period range of 1-10s. We therefore test different filtering bands encompassing this frequency range. We perform auto and cross-correlation of noise data from 78 station pairs. We perform stacking for 1, 5 and 10 days for smoother cross-correlation functions. We then compute the time delays using the Moving-Window Cross-Spectral analysis (Clarke et al., 2011, JGI). Finally, the change in velocity (dv/v) is determined from the calculated time delays. The algorithm was run via the software package MSNoise (Lecocq et al., 2014, SRL).

We find that the changes in the dv/v time series (~±0.01%) have seasonal patterns, where a negative dv/v in the winter period and a positive dv/v in summer is observed. We compare the auto and cross-correlations with the time series of groundwater measurements from nearby boreholes (ranging from 0.25-3.3m above mean sea level) to investigate the correlation between them. We also take into consideration the NW-SE geology of the island, distinguished by an impermeable layer between the geological strata (Blue Clay) in the north. We find that long paths traversing across different geological layers show weak correlations. We present the tests performed and the results showing the extended spatial coverage for groundwater monitoring in conjunction with the borehole data for the Maltese Islands.

 

Project SIGMA is financed by the Energy and Water Agency under the National Strategy for Research and Innovation in Energy and Water (2021-2030).

 

How to cite: Laudi, L., Agius, M. R., Galea, P., D'Amico, S., Schimmel, M., and Lecocq, T.: Groundwater monitoring for the Maltese Islands from ambient seismic noise correlations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6275, 2022.

Ambient noise tomography (ANT) based on empirical Green’s functions (EGFs) retrieved from cross-correlation functions (CCFs) of ambient noise is widely used to construct shear-wave velocity structures. EGFs from ambient noise can be treated as virtual seismograms with one station working as a virtual source and the other station working as a receiver. We propose a method named two-station C2 method(Rao et al., 2021), using one single station as a virtual source to obtain surface waves between a pair of asynchronous stations. This method can significantly improve ray path coverages and enhance the resolution in ANT for areas between asynchronous seismic arrays.

In our method, we select three stations, called a station triplet, which share the same great-circle path. We take one long-term station as a virtual source rather than using a number of stations as sources in the C3 method(Stehly et al., 2008; Ma and Beroza, 2012; Spica et al., 2016; Zhang et al., 2019). We use data from the USArray to demonstrate the feasibility of our method in retrieving surface waves from asynchronous stations.

Due to the harsh environment and inaccessibility of most of parts of the plateau, it is nearly impossible to deploy a large-scale synchronous seismic array across Tibet. In the past few decades, several isolated arrays have been deployed in Tibet at different periods of time. ANT has been applied to Tibet to generate phase velocity maps using these seismic arrays (e.g., Yang et al.,2012;Xie et al.,2013; Shen et al., 2016). However, due to the fact that these seismic arrays were not deployed synchronously, inter-array paths between asynchronous arrays cannot be obtained from the traditional C1 method, resulting in low resolution in the gaps of these seismic arrays.

We applied our method to the two seismic arrays (Z4 and X4) deployed in NE Tibet. The Z4 array was deployed from July 2007 to July 2008 and X4 from September 2008 to September 2009. For these two arrays, if we follow the C1 method, we can get at most 153 paths for Z4 array and 300 paths for X4 array. But no crossing-array paths can be obtained. Fortunately, there is a permanent Chinese National Seismic Network (Zheng et al., 2010) deployed across China. We can take the permanent stations from the Chinese National Seismic Network as source stations and obtain C2 functions following our method. Here, to illustrate the application of our C2 method for these two arrays, we select 153 permanent stations from the Chinese National Network as virtual sources. And, using these stations and our C2 method for these two arrays, we can retrieve 413 C2 functions with the source stations located within 5 degrees of the great-circle paths of receiver station pairs. The path coverage is improved by over 91%. Combining C1 and C2 paths, we can much better image the structures between these two arrays.

How to cite: Rao, H. and Luo, Y.: Extracting surface wave dispersion curves from asynchronous seismic stations in NE Tibet: A two-station C2 method, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6752, 2022.

EGU22-6951 | Presentations | SM3.1

Fast near-surface imaging using Rayleigh wave ellipticities and velocities from three-component ambient noise beamforming 

Claudia Finger, Katrin Löer, and Erik H. Saenger

Ambient seismic noise techniques are emerging as a complimentary tool to active seismic surveys for imaging subsurface velocities. However, questions about uncertainties and best practices of different processing schemes remain.

Most often beamforming or cross-correlation techniques are only applied to the vertical component. In studies of ambient-noise surface waves, it is assumed that only the Rayleigh wave is sampled since the Love wave is not polarized in the vertical direction. Recently, horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSR) have been integrated into the analysis of surface wave dispersion curves to better constrain the depths and velocities of shallow structures. In this context, the HVSR curves are used to estimate the Rayleigh ellipticity.

Using three-component surface wave beamforming (3CFK) provides the advantage of obtaining the polarization, and hence the wave type, of recorded waves in addition to the wave velocity over a frequency range. Thus, Rayleigh and Love waves can be identified and distinguished from body waves resulting in more accurate dispersion curves. Furthermore, from the polarization parameters, the ellipticity of the Rayleigh wave may be recovered at the same frequency resolution as the Rayleigh wave phase velocities. Thus, the frequency at which the polarization of Rayleigh wave changes from vertical to horizontal can be directly determined. This frequency is related with the commonly observed phenomenon of intersecting Rayleigh modes in dispersion curves. Determination of this so-called osculation frequency helps distinguish the fundamental and higher-mode Rayleigh waves.

In this study, a synthetic three-component realistic ambient noise wavefield has been created and the application of HVSR and 3CFK has been investigated. Uncertainties of both methods are compared with the true velocities and depths. It can be shown that the depth of the first large impedance contrast can be calculated using the osculation frequency retrieved from Rayleigh ellipticity curves and Rayleigh velocities at frequencies smaller than the osculation frequency. This method has less deviations from the true depth than the typical relation using the peak frequency of HVSR curves and a quarter of the average shear velocity above the impedance contrast.

3CFK and HVSR are applied to field data from Weisweiler, Germany, to demonstrate the applicability of the method. In Weisweiler, 15 three-component stations were recording the ambient noise wavefield for 10 days in June 2021. The stations covered a total aperture of about 200 m.

The methodology presented here is especially suited for large three-component nodal networks. The depth of the first large impedance contrast, in dependence of the array geometry, may be mapped fast and efficiently without the need for costly inversion processes, a priori assumptions or additional information from wells.

How to cite: Finger, C., Löer, K., and Saenger, E. H.: Fast near-surface imaging using Rayleigh wave ellipticities and velocities from three-component ambient noise beamforming, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6951, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6951, 2022.

EGU22-8043 | Presentations | SM3.1

Investigation of non-linear behavior of hard rock using relative seismic velocity changes - a case study at the GERES array in Germany 

Richard Kramer, Yang Lu, Andrew Delorey, and Götz Bokelmann

Variations in strain/stress and fluid content can change seismic velocities in the subsurface. Monitoring velocity changes, e.g., using ambient seismic noise, may thus constrain these variations as well as the material elastic properties and their non-linear behaviour. We can test this capability by inspecting velocity changes from known effects, such as tides, temperature or atmospheric pressure affecting the upper crust. Here we present a workflow to use ambient seismic noise to derive the non-linear behaviour of hard rocks during the influence of tides, temperature and atmospheric pressure. We study one year of data from the GERES array in south Germany, which provides data to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). The seismological GERES array consists of 25 high-quality stations located in concrete vaults with depths between 3 and 5 meters. The aperture is 4 km. We estimate hourly Green’s function by cross-correlating ambient seismic noise recorded at pairs of stations. A Wiener filter increases the signal-to-noise ratio and stabilizes the hourly calculation of relative seismic velocity change in the 1-4 Hz frequency band. We compare different techniques to measure seismic velocity changes with high precision in time, frequency, and wavelet domain. The results indicate short and long term variations of the seismic velocities. This study aims to compare this non-linear behaviour of hard rocks with other geological settings used in earlier investigations.

How to cite: Kramer, R., Lu, Y., Delorey, A., and Bokelmann, G.: Investigation of non-linear behavior of hard rock using relative seismic velocity changes - a case study at the GERES array in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8043, 2022.

EGU22-8281 | Presentations | SM3.1 | Highlight

Imaging high-enthalpy geothermal reservoirs using seismic noise interferometry 

Pilar Sánchez-Pastor, Anne Obermann, Thomas Reinsch, Þorbjörg Ágústsdóttir, Gunnar Gunnarsson, Sigrún Tómasdóttir, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, Gylfi Páll Hersir, Kristján Ágústsson, and Stefan Wiemer

High-enthalpy geothermal reservoirs have been exploited for electrical power generation worldwide during the last century.  Despite the different definitions of high-enthalpy reservoirs in the literature, one can consider fluid enthalpies of around 800 kJ/kg as high. In terms of temperature, geothermal systems with more than 200°C at 1 km depth can yield high fluid enthalpies. Igneous-related geothermal reservoirs are an abundant though unexploited energy resource on Earth. The thermal energy stored in those reservoirs is much higher but the risk of drilling into a molten magma pocket is very high too.

While there are numerous geophysical exploration techniques developed for the oil and gas industry, few are directed to the geothermal sector, where profitability is much smaller. In this talk, we are going to show the potential of ambient seismic noise interferometry to image high-enthalpy geothermal reservoirs. This approach has been broadly used in many different scenarios but barely in geothermal settings. In particular, we study the Hengill area, which is located in Iceland and hosts three volcanic systems, several geothermal sub-fields and two large power plants, being one of them Hellisheiði (303 MWe, 200 MWt), one of the largest power plants in the world.

We compute a 3D shear-wave tomography from seismic noise records in the Hengill area and compare the results with several geophysical observables derived from borehole measurements in the region, such as steam ratio and formation temperature. Furthermore, we compare the results with a resistivity model obtaining an excellent correlation between both observables overall. We find some discrepancies in small areas that we interpret as a lack of thermal equilibrium. We also identify a promising site for future drilling projects.

How to cite: Sánchez-Pastor, P., Obermann, A., Reinsch, T., Ágústsdóttir, Þ., Gunnarsson, G., Tómasdóttir, S., Hjörleifsdóttir, V., Hersir, G. P., Ágústsson, K., and Wiemer, S.: Imaging high-enthalpy geothermal reservoirs using seismic noise interferometry, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8281, 2022.

EGU22-8290 | Presentations | SM3.1

Historical earthquake simulation using ambient seismic noise in Vrancea (Romania): preliminary results 

Anica Otilia Placinta, Laura Petrescu, Felix Borleanu, and Mircea Radulian

The Vrancea Seismic Zone (VSZ), located in Romania, at the sharp bend of the southeastern Carpathians, is an anomalous intraplate seismic region releasing the largest strain in continental Europe. The seismicity is concentrated in a high-velocity focal volume down to 200 km, challenging classic earthquake mechanism theories due to its remote location and deep hypocenters in an expectedly ductile lithosphere. The last significant earthquake in Vrancea occurred in 1977 causing destruction to Romanian cities and long-term economic damage to an already struggling developing country. The seismic infrastructure was underdeveloped in Romania at that time and the earthquake was not well-recorded locally. The recent increase in seismic station coverage in Romania now provides the opportunity to systematically study seismogenic processes and apply the most novel processing methods.

We apply the recently developed algorithm of Virtual Earthquake Approach (VEA, Denolle et al., 2013) to reconstruct realistic ground motion records as if the stations operating today recorded historical earthquakes, such as the 1977 event. Predicting accurate ground motion is critical for earthquake hazard analysis, particularly in situations where sedimentary basins trap and amplify seismic waves. We gathered one year of three-component ambient noise data from 44 broadband seismic stations around the VSZ. We then construct the ambient noise Green’s tensor between pairs of stations and add the signatures of a realistic earthquake: double couple mechanism, buried source and a realistic earth model in the epicentral area.

Using the Romanian earthquake catalog (Romplus, www.infp.ro), we selected the last Mw>6.0 earthquakes since 1940 from the area and extracted the moment tensor solutions. Subsequently, we simulate the ground motion generated by these earthquakes recorded by modern seismometers decades after their occurrence. Our new results demonstrate the viability of this innovative method and provide a unique opportunity for more accurate seismic hazard analysis.

Keywords: ambient noise, historical earthquake, virtual earthquake approach.

Reference:

  • A. Denolle, E. M. Dunham, G. A. Prieto, G. C. Beroza, Ground motion prediction of realistic earthquake sources using the ambient seismic field, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, Vol. 118, 2102–2118, doi:10.1029/2012JB009603, 2013.

 

How to cite: Placinta, A. O., Petrescu, L., Borleanu, F., and Radulian, M.: Historical earthquake simulation using ambient seismic noise in Vrancea (Romania): preliminary results, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8290, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8290, 2022.

EGU22-8354 | Presentations | SM3.1

Rayleigh wave group-velocity maps from ambient noise tomography near Leeu Gamka, Karoo, South Africa 

Benjamin Whitehead, Diego Quiros, Melody Janse van Rensburg, Beth Kahle, Richard Kahle, and Alastair Sloan

Leeu Gamka is located within a stable continental region, in the hinterland of the Cambrian-Ordovician Cape Fold Belt, which runs parallel to the southern coast of South Africa. Following a swarm of moderate-low magnitude seismicity in the area between 2007 and 2013, documented in the ISC catalogue, researchers from the University of Cape Town deployed an array of 23 geophones between March and June 2015, for the purpose of more precisely locating further events. Although there is no evidence of a fault at the surface, microseismic epicenters aligned along a NW orientation suggest that there may be movement along a blind fault of the same orientation. The anomalous occurrence of earthquakes far removed from an active plate boundary may help improving our understanding of earthquake mechanisms and hazard, while the location of a blind fault may be useful to shale gas exploration in the area.

Potential interest in the Leeu Gamka seismicity and the prospective blind fault motivated further investigation, especially as they occur in a region which has been identified for shale gas exploration. The data used for locating earthquakes was reused to calculate Rayleigh wave group velocity maps. Although the network design was originally optimized for locating earthquakes, with a higher station-density in the centre of the network, a minimum inter-station-distance of 2 km and a maximum inter-station-distance of 60 km, usable Rayleigh wave group velocity maps were obtained.

Our preliminary findings suggest that there is an increase in Rayleigh wave group velocities southeast of a linear feature with a similar orientation and location as the previously located earthquakes. This abrupt lateral change in velocity is interpreted to be a consequence of thick quartzite formations of the Cape Supergroup, with high Rayleigh wave group velocities, having been thrust upwards during the Cape Orogeny juxtaposing them against the lower Rayleigh wave group velocity shale, siltstone, sandstone and diamictite, of the Karoo Supergroup. In this model, the measured earthquakes are most likely a reactivation of an older thrust fault which was active during the Cape Orogeny, but after the deposition of the lowermost Karoo units. This interpretation is consistent with the interpretation of Stankiewicz et al. (2007) who suggested the existence of a blind fault in the area based on the interpretation of a wide-angle seismic refraction line which passes through the study area.

This interpretation highlights the potential risk of the reactivation of blind faults associated with the Cape Orogeny if shale gas extraction and associated wastewater disposal were to proceed. Ambient noise tomography presents a low-cost way both to map the depth of the base of the Karoo Supergroup, and to identify some potentially seismogenic faults in the region, supporting both exploration and associated hazard identification and mitigation.

 

How to cite: Whitehead, B., Quiros, D., Janse van Rensburg, M., Kahle, B., Kahle, R., and Sloan, A.: Rayleigh wave group-velocity maps from ambient noise tomography near Leeu Gamka, Karoo, South Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8354, 2022.

EGU22-8772 | Presentations | SM3.1

Relaxation timescales after small and large earthquakes: similarity and controls from seismic velocity changes estimated in Patache, Chile. 

Luc Illien, Christoph Sens-Schönfelder, Kuan-Yu Ke, Jens Turowski, and Niels Hovius

Ground shaking induced by earthquakes often introduces transient changes in subsurface
rock's physical properties. Evidences for these changes come from estimated
seismic velocity changes that show co-seismic velocity drops, which are succeeded by a
phase of recovery (the so-called relaxation process). Because this transient behaviour may
influence hydraulic properties, friction properties in fault zones, material strength or landslide rates,
understanding the duration of the relaxation is important for post-earthquake hazard
mitigation. However, there is poor constraint on the recovery timescale, especially after
small seismic events. In this study, we present seismic interferometry results obtained
from a  seismic array at the Patache field site in Chile. Thanks to high 
averaging capabilities with this dense deployment of 13 stations, we are able to resolve relative seismic velocity
changes (3-6 Hz) at a 10-minutes resolution following a moderate seismic event (PGV ~
5 mm/s). After inferring the 1D shear velocity profile of our field site, we report a velocity
drop of ~0.4 % in the first 10 minutes after ground shaking, that precedes a recovery to
~50% of the initial pre-event value during the 48 hours following the event. We compare
this high resolution velocity change observation with a longer term, multi-annual velocity time-series that we obtained at
the same site and which exhibits the recovery induced by 2 large earthquakes (the 2007 Mw 7.7
Tocopilla and the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique). This combination of short and long observations allows us to
discuss the effect of ground shaking levels and earthquake sequences on the observed
relaxation timescales and highlights its key controls to possibly derive meaningful
predictive relationship for transient mechanical changes following earthquakes.

How to cite: Illien, L., Sens-Schönfelder, C., Ke, K.-Y., Turowski, J., and Hovius, N.: Relaxation timescales after small and large earthquakes: similarity and controls from seismic velocity changes estimated in Patache, Chile., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8772, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8772, 2022.

EGU22-9171 | Presentations | SM3.1

SHmax Orientation in the Northern Alpine Foreland from Stress-Induced Anisotropy in Nonlinear Elasticity 

Yongki Andita Aiman, Andrew Delorey, Yang Lu, Götz Bokelmann, and the AlpArray Working Group

The orientation of SHmax is commonly estimated from in-situ borehole breakouts and earthquake focal mechanisms. Borehole measurements are expensive, and therefore sparse, and earthquake measurements can only be made in regions with many well characterized earthquakes. Here we derive the stress-field orientation using stress-induced anisotropy in nonlinear elasticity. In this method, we measure the strain derivative of velocity as a function of azimuth. We use a pump-probe method which consists of measuring elastic wave speed using empirical Green’s functions (probe) at different points of the tidal strain cycle (pump) as in Delorey et al. (2021). The approach is applied to data from the AlpArray in the Alpine foreland region, where the orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress is well-known from borehole breakouts and drilling-induced fractures.

Delorey, A., Bokelmann, G., Johnson, C., Johnson, P. Estimation of the orientation of stress in the Earth's crust without earthquake or borehole data. Nature Comm. Earth Environ. 2, 190 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00244-1

How to cite: Aiman, Y. A., Delorey, A., Lu, Y., Bokelmann, G., and Group, T. A. W.: SHmax Orientation in the Northern Alpine Foreland from Stress-Induced Anisotropy in Nonlinear Elasticity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9171, 2022.

EGU22-9440 | Presentations | SM3.1

Focal spot imaging on USArray records 

Christina Tsarsitalidou, Pierre Boué, Gregor Hillers, Bruno Giammarinaro, Laurent Stehly, and Michel Campillo

The spatial zero-lag amplitude distribution of correlations obtained from vertical component dense array records of diffuse seismic wave fields is characterized by a large-amplitude feature around the origin referred to as focal spot. In the context of time-reversed surface waves it can be understood as the collapse of a converging wavefront. The analogy to the SPAC method implies that the nine-component solutions that describe the spectral features can readily be applied to the time-domain focal spot shape to estimate local phase velocity, which connects this method to established elastographic medical imaging. In contrast to sparse SPAC arrays, modern dense arrays allow a properly resolved focal spot at near-field distances for an inversion-free sensor-by-sensor image compilation, with intriguing implications for vertical and lateral resolution enhancement. We demonstrate the applicability of this method on the basis of Rayleigh wave focal spots in the 60 s to 200 s period range that are obtained from ambient field correlations using USArray data between -125 and -90 degrees west. The 1000 s long noise correlations are computed using standard techniques, Gaussian filtered around the central target frequency, and the spatial zero-lag distribution fitted with the SPAC Bessel functions model to distances of 1.2 wavelengths. The effectiveness and accuracy of this approach is demonstrated by the impressive similarity between the obtained “instantaneous image” at 60 s and surface wave tomography results from the literature. The stark velocity contrast between the western and central U.S. is clearly resolved, but the similarity extends to well resolved details including the Sierra Nevada, the Snake River Plain feature, the circular low-velocity rim around the Colorado Plateau, and part of the Mississippi Embayment. Based on this benchmark result obtained with vertical-component data we explore the internal consistency of the obtained maps towards longer periods and the associated extension of dispersion measurements; we probe the limits of the near-field approach by systematically lowering the fitting distance to sub-wavelength scales; and we quantify the similarity of vertical-radial results. The zero-lag amplitude distributions in the wavenumber domain show signatures of near-vertically incident energy associated with global body wave reverberations. We mute this energy by neglecting time windows from the correlation data after global large earthquakes. Systematic tests of the window length, and again the comparison to the benchmark observations, inform about the efficiency of this approach. We conclude that time-domain dense array near-field imaging yields accurate distributions of the velocity structure. We emphasize the disadvantageous low randomization of the long period ambient field, and the sub-array shapes resulting from the rolling USArray deployment. Imaging on smaller scales should therefore work better.

How to cite: Tsarsitalidou, C., Boué, P., Hillers, G., Giammarinaro, B., Stehly, L., and Campillo, M.: Focal spot imaging on USArray records, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9440, 2022.

EGU22-9507 | Presentations | SM3.1

Layer-specific imaging and monitoring in the Groningen subsurface using seismic interferometry 

Faezeh Shirmohammadi, Deyan Draganov, Paul Ras, and Kees Wapenaar

Seismic interferometry (SI) is a method that retrieves new seismic traces from the cross-correlation of existing traces, where one of the receivers acts as a virtual seismic source whose response is retrieved at other receivers. When using sources only at the surface, and so-called one-sided illumination of the receivers occurs, not only desired physical reflections are retrieved, but also non-physical (ghost) reflections. These non-physical reflections are caused by internal reflections inside subsurface layers. They are thus particularly interesting to use for monitoring changes in the specific subsurface layer that causes them to appear in the SI result because they could provide valuable information about the physical properties of the subsurface.

We illustrate the potential of SI with active-source data from numerical acoustic modelling using the Groningen subsurface model. This model describes the natural gas field located in the Groningen province in the northeastern part of the Netherlands. The reservoir of the Groningen gas field is located at depths between 2600 m and 3200 m, the total thickness ranges from approximately 100 m to 300 m. The Groningen field is cut by several fault systems, subdividing the field into a large number of fault blocks, and it is a clear example of induced seismicity by gas production.

We investigate the utilization of non-physical reflections retrieved from surface active-source data using SI by cross-correlation and auto-correlation. With multi-offset gathers, besides physical reflections, we retrieve non-physical reflections as well; by muting undesired reflections, we can retrieve better target-related non-physical reflections. To illustrate the potential of the non-physical reflections for monitoring purposes, we apply velocity changes in the Groningen reservoir. With zero-offset gathers, which are retrieved from SI by auto-correlation, we show that in case of velocity changes, the non-physical reflections show a clear change; furthermore, they show a good agreement with the geometry of specific subsurface layers, specifically with the faulted structure. Thus, we can utilize non-physical reflections for imaging and monitoring in the Groningen reservoir.

How to cite: Shirmohammadi, F., Draganov, D., Ras, P., and Wapenaar, K.: Layer-specific imaging and monitoring in the Groningen subsurface using seismic interferometry, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9507, 2022.

EGU22-10273 | Presentations | SM3.1

Temporal Seismic Velocity Changes Associated with the Mw 6.1, 2008 Ölfus Earthquake Doublet, South Iceland, Using Ambient Noise 

Yesim Cubuk Sabuncu, Kristín Jónsdóttir, Þóra Árnadóttir, Corentin Caudron, Thomas Lecocq, and Aurelien Mordret

Our study presents temporal seismic velocity changes (dv/v) associated with the May 2008 Ölfus earthquakes by computing the cross-correlations of ambient noise. The 2008 Ölfus doublet (M5.8 and M5.9, with a composite magnitude of M6.1) occurred in the South Iceland Seismic Zone, which is a highly active transform zone that accommodates plate motion with major earthquake sequences (e.g., 1896, 1912, 2000). We investigate co-seismic and post-seismic response of the crust in the epicentral area, to the 2008 Ölfus doublet. For our analysis, we used three-component continuous data from three stations of the SIL national seismic network operated by the Icelandic Meteorological Office. Using the MSNoise software package (http://www.msnoise.org), we calculated single station ambient noise cross-correlations and utilized the stretching approach to quantify relative seismic velocity variations. We found the highest co-seismic velocity decrease (<1 percent) in the high-frequency band (1-3 Hz) at a seismic station located 10 km from the rupture zone. The co-seismic dv/v drop is also observed at stations 35 km away from the earthquake epicenter, though the amplitude of the variation is less, at 0.5 percent. We identify three months of post-seismic period in both the high-frequency and low-frequency calculations, indicating the recovery process at different crustal depths after the mainshocks. We compare our dv/v time series to continuous GPS observations, local seismicity, and volumetric stress changes. Our analysis suggests that the velocity changes are mainly controlled by shaking-induced damage. Our findings provide considerable insights into the time-dependent seismic velocity changes caused by the 2008 Ölfus events. This work is supported by the IS-NOISE project (https://is-noise.earth/) and the Icelandic Research Fund, Rannis (https://www.rannis.is/).

How to cite: Cubuk Sabuncu, Y., Jónsdóttir, K., Árnadóttir, Þ., Caudron, C., Lecocq, T., and Mordret, A.: Temporal Seismic Velocity Changes Associated with the Mw 6.1, 2008 Ölfus Earthquake Doublet, South Iceland, Using Ambient Noise, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10273, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10273, 2022.

EGU22-10639 | Presentations | SM3.1 | Highlight

Space-Time Monitoring of Groundwater via Seismic Interferometry 

Shujuan Mao, Albanne Lecointre, Robert D. van der Hilst, and Michel Campillo

Historic levels of droughts are plaguing the globe, raising a vital call for sustainable freshwater management. Urgently needed is a refined understanding about the structures and dynamics of underground aquifers. Here we present a novel approach for in-situ monitoring of groundwater fluctuations by making use of existing seismograph arrays in California. By advancing the seismic interferometry techniques, we manage to measure not only the temporal evolution but also the spatial distribution of Relative Changes in Seismic Velocity (Δv/v) in the Coastal Los Angeles Basins during 2000-2020. We find Δv/v to recover the hydraulic head, illustrating the potential of leveraging seismometers to propel the temporal and spatial density of well measurements. Images of Δv/v seasonality agree with surface deformation inferred from InSAR, but also further enable the characterization of aquifers and their hydrology at different depths. Long-term Δv/v suggest that distinct trends (decline or recovery) of groundwater storage occurred in adjacent basins, due to anthropogenic pumping practices compounding the effect of climate change. This pilot application bridges the gap between seismology and hydrology, and shows the promise of using seismometers to monitor, image and evaluate underground hydrologic processes. We anticipate Δv/v to be a unique type of 4D geodata that will bring new insights to studying various time-varying processes in Earth’s shallow subsurface.

How to cite: Mao, S., Lecointre, A., van der Hilst, R. D., and Campillo, M.: Space-Time Monitoring of Groundwater via Seismic Interferometry, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10639, 2022.

Coda wave interferometry is an important tool to gain insights into the dynamic evolution of the Earth. A limitation of the majority of current studies employing this technique, is the neglect of variations in scattering strength in the lithosphere. Geological observations indicate that scattering properties can strongly vary laterally, especially in complex geological settings, e.g. in the vicinity of active tectonic or volcanic areas.

In presented work we explore the implications of non-uniform distribution of scattering strength on the spatio-temporal sensitivity of coda waves. In the first part, we numerically derive 2-D coda wave sensitivity kernels based on Monte Carlo simulations of the radiative transfer process, considering lateral heterogeneity of the crust. The kernels are calculated for three different observables, namely travel-time, decorrelation and intensity. Our results illustrate that laterally varying scattering properties can have a profound impact on the sensitivities of coda waves.

In a second part, we validate the kernels. Firstly, synthetic lapse-time based travel-time changes are calculated using the kernels for non-uniform media. Using these synthetic observations, we conduct damped least-squares inversions to localise changes in space for both a fault zone and volcanic setting. We compare the accuracy of localisation of the medium changes between inversions carried out with kernels for uniform and non-uniform media. Our results demonstrate that superior localisation of the seismic anomaly is obtained when considering local scattering information by employing kernels for non-uniform media. This holds for the fault zone as well as the volcanic setting. The stability of the results is verified by conducting inversions where 10dB white noise is added to the synthetic time-shift observations.

How to cite: van Dinther, C., Wang, Q., Margerin, L., and Campillo, M.: The impact of laterally varying scattering properties on subsurface monitoring using coda wave sensitivity kernels: Application to fault zone and volcanic areas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11414, 2022.

EGU22-12322 | Presentations | SM3.1

Transdimensional ambient-noise surface wave tomography of the Reykjanes Peninsula, SW Iceland 

Amin Rahimi Dalkhani, Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir, Egill Árni Gudnason, Xin Zhang, and Cornelis Weemstra

Six en-echelon arranged volcanic systems are aligned NE-SW along the Reykjanes Peninsula, each comprising a fissure swarm with the central area marked by a maximum volcanic production. Five out of six systems host a high-temperature geothermal field. In this study, we image the shear wave velocity structure of the entire Reykjanes Peninsula using a recently developed one-step 3D transdimensional surface wave tomography. The transdimensional tomography algorithm uses a variable model parametrization by employing Voronoi cells in conjunction with the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We use the frequency dependent-travel times (with a frequency range of 0.1-0.5 Hz) derived from the recorded ambient noise data to image the area. The data are recorded between April 2015 until August 2015 using seismic stations from four different seismic networks (i.e., IMAGE, ÍSOR/HS Orka, REYKJANET, and SIL). The area covered by all stations is 120 km by 70 km. Approximately 45 km by 25 km of the station areal coverage is onshore; the rest is offshore. Additionally, based on the previous studies, using a frequency range of 0.1-0.5 Hz, it is expected to resolve the shear wave velocity structure up to a maximum depth of 10 km. The results show that the algorithm successfully recovered the velocity structure below the areas sampled with sufficient ray paths coverage. The areas with fewer ray paths result in a smoother velocity structure. We observe a few low-velocity anomalies at depths around 4-6 km, which are likely to be associated with the high-temperature fields around those depths. In other words, the low-velocity anomalies appeared below the location of the known high-temperature fields, which are Reykjanes, Eldvörp, Svartsengi, and Krýsuvík.

How to cite: Rahimi Dalkhani, A., Ágústsdóttir, T., Árni Gudnason, E., Zhang, X., and Weemstra, C.: Transdimensional ambient-noise surface wave tomography of the Reykjanes Peninsula, SW Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12322, 2022.

EGU22-12347 | Presentations | SM3.1

Seasonal variations of seismic velocities in Greece measured from seismic noise cross-correlations 

Estelle Delouche, Laurent Stehly, and Michel Campillo

Greece is the most earthquake-prone country in Europe, as it is located at the intersection of the Eurasian and African plates, as well as at the western end of the North Anatolian fault zone.

The long term goal of this study is to monitor the spatio-temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the crust around the Gulf of Corinth in Greece that is associated with seismic swarms and large magnitude (Mw>5) earthquakes. We found that the seismic velocity changes induced by tectonic processes in the upper crust in Greece are masked by the velocity variations associated with environmental factors such as seasonal changes of temperature and hydrological parameters. The aim of the present study is to quantify the seismic velocity changes in the upper crust that are due to these environmental parameters. To that end, we use 6 years (2015-2020) of continuous vertical noise recording in 142 stations and calculate daily auto-correlations. We use the stretching method to measure seismic wave velocity variations (dv/v) with a sliding window of 2 months in the [1-3]s period band corresponding to the shallow crust.  We find that in several regions, the seismic velocities exhibit strong seasonal variations in particular in karstic areas. We use data from 495 meteorological stations in order to assess if it is possible to model the observed seasonal variations of dv/v from temperature changes and rainfall. Preliminary results indicate that 1- the seasonal changes of temperature are unlikely to explain the seasonal changes of seismic velocities and 2- in several regions, the variations of the groundwater level induced by rainfalls can at least partially explain the observed velocity variations.

To complete this study, we turned to an analysis of GPS traces as an independent means of assessing modeled velocity variation and to analyze hydrologic processes within aquifers.

How to cite: Delouche, E., Stehly, L., and Campillo, M.: Seasonal variations of seismic velocities in Greece measured from seismic noise cross-correlations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12347, 2022.

EGU22-12747 | Presentations | SM3.1

Spatial and temporal evolution of Skaftá cauldrons floods from 2015 to 2021 through the analysis of correlograms 

Sylvain Nowé, Thomas Lecocq, Corentin Caudron, Kristín Jónsdóttir, Bergur Einarsson, Bethany Vanderhoof, and Frank Pattyn

In September 2021, two jökulhlaups were released into the Skaftá river from western Vatnajökull icecap (Iceland). Such floods have been known since 1955. These jökulhlaups originate from two subglacial lakes under 1–3 km wide and 50–150 m deep depressions in the glacier surface, commonly referred to as ice cauldrons, formed by geothermal melting. The average time interval between jökulhlaups from each cauldron is ~2 a. The jökulhlaups travel ~40 km under a glacier that reaches maximum thickness of ~750 m and emerge in the Skaftá river at the terminus of Skaftárjökull outlet glacier. In addition to increased subglacial water flow and river discharge, these floods are responsible for seismicity and tremor onset, inside the cauldrons, along the subglacial channels, at the outlet where the subglacial channels meet the river, as well as on the river path.
We used seismic interferometry or cross-correlation of seismic noise to analyse data from 2015 to the end of 2021. We computed cross-correlation functions for 27 seismic stations and for frequencies between 0.5 and 8 Hz. To characterize these floods, we calculated the propagation velocities based on the cross-correlation functions and for each frequency band. We located seismic signatures both during the floods period and previous times by using a grid-search method based on the approach of Ballmer et al. 2013, which calculates theoretical differential times and provides probabilities of locations as the summed stack amplitudes of correlograms. These daily location grids allowed us to analyse the spatial evolution of probability of location during these floods as well as compare them with previous “non-flood” periods. Furthermore, based on these location grids, we were able to compute temporal series for isolated locations (pixels) such as ice cauldrons, a hydrological station located on the river path, or any other target, allowing us to analyse the temporal evolution of location probability during the floods as well as compare it with the last six years of data. The resolution of this temporal evolution ranges from monthly to hourly. By using six years of seismic data, we were also able to compare the 2021 floods with floods due to the same ice cauldrons, for example in August 2018 and September 2019.
This study provides an insight on how relevant seismic interferometry can be in the monitoring of such processes, with the purpose of being fully automatic in the near future.

How to cite: Nowé, S., Lecocq, T., Caudron, C., Jónsdóttir, K., Einarsson, B., Vanderhoof, B., and Pattyn, F.: Spatial and temporal evolution of Skaftá cauldrons floods from 2015 to 2021 through the analysis of correlograms, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12747, 2022.

EGU22-12913 | Presentations | SM3.1

The shallow crustal structure of the Volcàn de Colima: Evidence from ambient noise surface wave tomography 

Raphael De Plaen, Aurélien Mordret, Raul Arámbula-Mendoza, Dulce Vargas-Bracamontes, Victor Hugo Márquez-Ramírez, and Thomas Lecocq

The Volcán de Colima is one of the most active volcanoes in North America, but it still has a poorly constrained upper crustal structure. We used ambient seismic noise tomography to generate the highest-resolution three-dimensional shear-wave velocity model of the volcano to date. We measured group velocity dispersion curves of Rayleigh and Love waves extracted from the records of two distinct networks deployed on the Colima Volcanic Complex. Those were regionalized into 2-D velocity maps and then locally inverted using a neighborhood algorithm and an anisotropic parametrization to obtain an accurate shear-velocity model down to 4 km below sea level. 

The resulting model highlights a network of deeply rooted NE-SW low-velocity zones oriented along a local fault system. This low-velocity zone also roughly aligns with the north-south trend associated with the gradual trenchward shift of the magmatic front of the quaternary Colima Volcanic Complex. An overlapping negative radial anisotropy indicates that magma follows vertically oriented structures, such as interfingered dikes, faults, or cracks with a substantial vertical component. Our results also highlight the difference between the former active system, filled with solidified dikes and sills, and the current one, associated with a network of fluid-filled dikes.

How to cite: De Plaen, R., Mordret, A., Arámbula-Mendoza, R., Vargas-Bracamontes, D., Márquez-Ramírez, V. H., and Lecocq, T.: The shallow crustal structure of the Volcàn de Colima: Evidence from ambient noise surface wave tomography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12913, 2022.

EGU22-12941 | Presentations | SM3.1

The stationary phase approximation in seismic interferometry: Error quantification and the effects of source correlations. 

Daniella Ayala-Garcia, Michal Branicki, and Andrew Curtis

Seismic interferometry is a powerful and well-established technique that relies on cross-correlating seismic observations at different receiver locations to yield new seismic responses that, under certain conditions, provide a useful estimate of the Green's function between the given receiver locations, as if there was a source at one of these locations. The inter-receiver signals thus estimated allow us to monitor and remotely illuminate near-surface crustal structures.

Underpinning seismic interferometry is the principle of stationary phase, which states that non-trivial contributions to highly oscillatory integrals, such as those found in interferometry, arise from stationary points of the phase of these cross-correlations. This principle is widely invoked to make approximations in interferometry, both in theory, to derive and simplify interferometric formulations, as well as in practical applications, to justify the use of non-ideal source or receiver distributions. Further, it has been established that spatial variations in the source intensity must be smooth in order to apply this approximation.

While there have been some empirical explorations of the uncertainty introduced by this approximation, the errors have not yet been quantified analytically, and neither the effects of non-smooth variations in the sources, nor of statistical correlations between sources, have been formally considered. In this work, we apply a mathematical framework to seismic interferometry in two dimensions. This analysis yields an exact expression for the error in the interferometric estimate of the inter-receiver Green’s function. Moreover, we extend this approach to a scenario of inhomogeneous, statistically correlated sources, and illustrate the effects of source correlation and roughness on the phase and amplitude of the stationary-phase interferometric estimate. We provide statistical conditions to ensure that the stationary phase estimate is unbiased, and give an explicit bound for the error in the estimated spectrum. These error quantities are given in terms of parameters that are either known (such as the inter-receiver distance), or can be estimated from empirical data. Therefore, we expect these results to be applicable in practical interferometric studies that make use of the stationary phase approximation, as a tool to quantify error and uncertainty in empirical results.

How to cite: Ayala-Garcia, D., Branicki, M., and Curtis, A.: The stationary phase approximation in seismic interferometry: Error quantification and the effects of source correlations., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12941, 2022.

EGU22-2007 | Presentations | SM3.2

Earthquake catalogue enhancement through template matching: an application to the Southern Apennines (Italy) 

Giovanni Diaferia, Luisa Valoroso, Davide Piccinini, and Luigi Improta

Improving the capability of seismic networks to detect small-magnitude seismicity, commonly near or below the detectability threshold, is the prerequisite to characterize the seismotectonics of an area in terms of fault geometry, kinematics and mechanics, thus leading to an improved comprehension on the physical mechanisms that generate small and large earthquakes. In this work, we apply template-matching, a cross-correlation based technique for the detection of hidden earthquakes, at the scale of the Southern Apennines (Italy). Here, the ongoing extension of the Mio-Pliocene Apennine thrust-belt poses a major seismic risk, as testified by several Mw~7 earthquakes that struck this area in the past 300 years. No clear consensus exists on the seismotectonic models related to such events, particularly in terms of characterization of the fault structure and crustal rheology that can thus largely benefit from the application of template-matching.

As template events, we use ~9000 earthquakes occurring between 2009 and 2015, recorded by 181 stations from the INGV National Seismic Network. Six years-long (2009-2015) continuous recordings are scanned by the template-matching algorithm. Of about 3 million new detections, around 3% (~88.000 events) comply with the minimum quality thresholds we set (at least four P and S picks, recorded at least at five stations). For determining earthquake locations we used the fully-probabilistic non-linear code NonLinLoc, with an ad-hoc 1D velocity model and corrections for station residuals.

By accounting for the quality of the hypocenter location, the final catalog comprises ~50.000 new seismic events with a mean horizontal and vertical error of 1.4 and 2.5 km, respectively, and a mean RMS of 0.13 s, parameters that are similar to those of the template catalog. Given the small magnitude (Mw<1) of the majority of the newly detected events, the new catalog shows a decrease in magnitude of completeness from 2.5 to 1.9, assessed through the Lilliefors’ goodness-of-fit test.

The spatial and temporal pattern of seismicity unravelled by the enhanced catalog provide new insights especially for those seismogenic structures that are poorly known. For the main seismic sequences that occurred in the analyzed period (i.e., Pollino and Matese Mw5+ sequences) the aftershocks as well as the foreshock phases appear particularly enriched. Main NW-SE trending seismogenic structures of the axial zone of chain are illuminated by abundant microseismicity, with evident gaps delineating the boundary of such structures. In addition, the new catalog unravels distinct E-W oriented clusters in the external zone of the seismic belt, likely related to shear zones developed in the deeper crystalline crust of the Adria plate.

How to cite: Diaferia, G., Valoroso, L., Piccinini, D., and Improta, L.: Earthquake catalogue enhancement through template matching: an application to the Southern Apennines (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2007, 2022.

EGU22-2439 | Presentations | SM3.2

A new frequency-domain based approach for detecting low frequency seismic events: An application to the Mt. Vesuvius seismicity 

Roberto Manzo, Danilo Galluzzo, Mario La Rocca, and Rosa Di Maio

The detection of low energy seismic events and tremor related to volcanic activity in areas characterized by high background noise represents a crucial challenge for monitoring and surveillance purposes. In the last three years, the seismicity of the Mt. Vesuvius (southern Italy) has been characterized by low-magnitude volcano tectonic earthquakes, the most of which are located at depth shallower than 3 km b.s.l., while very few low-frequency earthquakes and tremor episodes are located at about 6-7 km depth. It is well known that magmatic and hydrothermal systems can play an important role in the generation of low-frequency seismic events, which could be important precursors for assessing the reawakening of a volcano. Therefore, our main objective is to develop a methodology for detecting the presence of low frequency (LF) events hidden in the background noise and not identifiable by classical detection procedures. In particular, we suggest a frequency domain approach based on a joint application of coherence analysis among signals from local network seismic stations and parameterization of the amplitude spectra according to the statistical moments. The proposed methodology has been applied to the analysis of continuous seismic signals recorded over three years at Mt. Vesuvius. Spectral parameters, such as central frequency W, shape factor d and coherence c, were evaluated on 30-s windows signals in the frequency range between 2 and 40 Hz. The selection of the signal windows that could potentially contain low-frequency events or tremor signals was performed according to the following criteria: a) 0.45 < δ < 0.65; b) 3 Hz < W < 6 Hz and c) c greater than 0.5, which are based on the results of preliminary analyses of the seismicity observed at Mt. Vesuvius. The detected signal windows were visually inspected and compared with the seismic catalogues to eliminate those corresponding to earthquakes occurred outside the area of interest. For the three-years of analyzed data, more than 200 episodes of low frequency signals were identified, 120 of which are not present in the seismic catalog. Most of them appear as low-amplitude tremor episodes, with no clear evidence of P and S phases, hidden in the noisy raw signals but visible at the entire seismic network after proper signal filtering. Compared to the few LF events detected and analysed in the past, our findings suggest that the proposed methodology can be an efficient tool for detecting low-amplitude signals not easily identifiable in the background noise and could represent an improvement for the monitoring system of the Mt. Vesuvius volcanic area.

How to cite: Manzo, R., Galluzzo, D., La Rocca, M., and Di Maio, R.: A new frequency-domain based approach for detecting low frequency seismic events: An application to the Mt. Vesuvius seismicity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2439, 2022.

EGU22-2673 | Presentations | SM3.2

A machine-learning approach for the reconstruction of ground shaking fields in real-time 

Simone Francesco Fornasari, Giovanni Costa, and Veronica Pazzi

Real-time monitoring is of primary importance for rapid and targeted emergency operations after potentially destructive earthquakes. A key aspect in determining the impact of an earthquake is the reconstruction of the ground shaking field, usually expressed as a peak ground parameter. Traditional algorithms approach this task by computing the ground shaking field from the punctual data at the stations and relying on ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) computed on estimates of the earthquake location where the instrumental data are missing. The results of such algorithms are then subordinate to the evaluation of location and magnitude which can take several minutes.
To fill the gap between the arrival of the data and the (first preliminary) estimation (usually computed in a few minutes), we introduce a new data-driven algorithm that exploits the information from the station data only. Such an algorithm, consisting of an ensemble of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) trained with a database of ground shaking maps produced with traditional algorithms, can provide real-time estimates of the ground shaking field and the associated uncertainty. Since CNNs cannot handle sparse data a Voronoi tessellation of a specific peak ground parameter recorded at the stations is computed and used as an input to the CNNs; site effects and network geometry are accounted for using a (normalized) Vs30 map and a station location map, respectively.
The developed method is robust to noise, can handle network geometry changes over time without the need for retraining, and can resolve multiple simultaneous events. Although having a lower resolution, the results obtained are compatible with the ones from traditional methods. A fully-operational version of the algorithm is running on the servers at the Department of Mathematics and Geosciences of the University of Trieste showing real-time capabilities in handling stations from multiple Italian strong-motion networks and outputting results with a resolution of 0.05°x0.05°.

How to cite: Fornasari, S. F., Costa, G., and Pazzi, V.: A machine-learning approach for the reconstruction of ground shaking fields in real-time, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2673, 2022.

EGU22-3160 | Presentations | SM3.2

A semblance based microseismic event detector for DAS data 

Juan Porras, Francesco Grigoli, Eusebio Stucchi, Katinka Tuinstra, Andrea Tognarelli, Federica Lanza, Mattia Aleardi, Alfredo Mazzotti, and Stefan Wiemer

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is becoming increasingly popular in microseismic monitoring operations. Fiber-optic cables such as conventional telecommunication or built-for-purpose cables can be turned into a dense array of geophones that samples seismic wavefields continuously for several kilometers. DAS is particularly interesting for microseismic monitoring of geothermal systems since it does not have the same temperature limitations as standard electronic equipment. The sensing fiber can therefore be installed at high-temperature reservoir conditions and in the same well that is being stimulated. Because of these advantages, the distance between the detecting sensor and the induced seismicity can be minimized, maximizing the detection capability. Typical DAS acquisition samples the wavefield at about 1 m spacing and sampling frequencies of 1 kHz or higher. Unfortunately, standard seismological techniques are not capable of exploiting this high spatial density of sensors, hence they are ineffective in processing this kind of data. Here we propose a semblance-based seismic event detection method that fully exploits the characteristics of the DAS data. The detection identifies seismic events by looking at waveform coherence along hyperbolas while changing the curvature and position of the vertex. The method returns a time series of coherence values and, if these values are higher than a determined threshold, it catches a seismic event. First we test the detector with synthetic data resembling a realistic setup. Finally, we validate the detector by applying it to real DAS data from the Utah FORGE site in the US. This work is supported by the EU-Geothermica DEEP project.

How to cite: Porras, J., Grigoli, F., Stucchi, E., Tuinstra, K., Tognarelli, A., Lanza, F., Aleardi, M., Mazzotti, A., and Wiemer, S.: A semblance based microseismic event detector for DAS data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3160, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3160, 2022.

EGU22-3800 | Presentations | SM3.2

SSA2py: A seismic source imaging tool in Python based on the Source-Scanning Algorithm 

Ioannis Fountoulakis and Christos Evangelidis

We introduce SSA2py, an open-source tool for the implementation of the Source-Scanning Algorithm (SSA) (Honn Kao and Shao-Ju Shan, 2007) in near-real time conditions. In general, Back-Projection methods due to their simplistic but at the same time effective approach provide the circumstances for fast analysis of the seismic rupture with relatively low computational cost and minimum initial assumptions.  In accordance with that and by exploiting local strong motion data, SSA can be used for the detailed imaging of the high frequency seismic radiation after the occurrence of a major earthquake by stacking records based on the predicted arrival times for a specific seismic phase. Areas in a spatiotemporal grid system that produce high brightness values due to constructive stacking, usually point out the radiation of meaningful seismic energy at the examined frequency band. SSA2py is a command line tool, developed in Python high-level programming language and mainly designed to closely work with ‘FDSN Compliant Web Services’  for a real-time seismic event triggering and seismic waveform data provision. After the report of a significant seismic event SSA2py initially calculates the necessary travel time tables, using the optimal velocity model for the study area. The software is intended to offer several travel time calculation alternatives such as the fast marching or the finite difference method together with the possibility to use 1D or 3D velocity models (if it’s applicable).  In a subsequent step, it automatically obtains seismic waveform data and metadata from the user defined data sources (e.g. an FDSN web service) and applies a variety of signal assessment algorithms that examine data-clipping, signal‐to‐noise ratio, long period disturbances, station’s performance based on power spectral density (PSD) of seismic noise etc. Selected data are carefully pre-processed, based on the user given configuration file and back-projected using SSA in an highly efficient way parallelized and adapted to run in GPU and CPU multiprocessing architectures.  An extended configuration file is provided, allowing the user to manipulate in detail SSA settings, ranging from the style and the size of the grid system to the frequencies and the type of the used signals.  Finally the software elucidates the method results by producing a series of plots and other important output info. The robustness of this new software will be presented in case studies from major earthquakes around the world (e.g. Japan, Greece). The program will be open source and freely available to the scientific community, oriented for computers with Linux OS and access to FDSN Web Services.

Honn Kao, Shao‐Ju Shan, Rapid identification of earthquake rupture plane using Source‐Scanning Algorithm, Geophysical Journal International, Volume 168, Issue 3, March 2007, Pages 1011–1020, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03271.x

The research work was supported by the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (H.F.R.I.) under the “First Call for H.F.R.I. Research Projects to support Faculty members and Researchers and the procurement of high-cost research equipment grant” (SIREN, Project Number: 910).

How to cite: Fountoulakis, I. and Evangelidis, C.: SSA2py: A seismic source imaging tool in Python based on the Source-Scanning Algorithm, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3800, 2022.

EGU22-3826 | Presentations | SM3.2

Double single-force model to characterize the detachment and impact of a landslide: application to the 07-02-2021 Uttarakhand, India landslide 

Angela Carrillo Ponce, Simone Cesca, Torsten Dahm, Frederik Tilmann, Andrey Babeyko, Rajesh Rekapalli, and N. Purnachandra Rao

Landslides begin with the detachment of a mass and end with its impact at lower altitude. To simultaneously model seismic signals produced by these processes, we consider a double single-force model. We applied this source model to the seismic signals generated by the landslide in Uttarakhand, India, on February 7th, 2021. We model the seismic recordings at 12 seismic stations located at less than 100 km epicentral distance. We perform the source inversion by fitting low-frequency (0.08-0.15 Hz) three component (vertical, radial, transversal) waveforms in the time and simultaneously their amplitude spectra in the frequency domain. We compare our results with those obtained for a single-force model applied to each pulse separately. Our results identify two energetic pulses separated by a time delay of ~1 minute. The amplitude of the second pulse, interpreted as the impact, is ~3 times larger than the first one, and of opposite sign. Together with visual observations of the landslide itself, our results confirm that the first pulse was produced by the detachment of the rock mass and the second one by the impact of the mass in the valley. The orientations of the single forces are consistent with the slope geometry and the direction of the debris flow. We discuss statistical measures of fit of the two different inversion approaches and the possible strengths and weaknesses of the new double single-force model.

How to cite: Carrillo Ponce, A., Cesca, S., Dahm, T., Tilmann, F., Babeyko, A., Rekapalli, R., and Rao, N. P.: Double single-force model to characterize the detachment and impact of a landslide: application to the 07-02-2021 Uttarakhand, India landslide, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3826, 2022.

EGU22-6087 | Presentations | SM3.2

MALMI: towards combining machine learning and waveform migration for fully automated earthquake detection and location 

Peidong Shi, Francesco Grigoli, Federica Lanza, and Stefan Wiemer

Automatic event detection and location is key to real-time earthquake monitoring. With the increase of computing power and labeled data, automated workflows that utilize machine learning (ML) techniques have become increasingly popular; however, classical workflows using ML as phase pickers still face challenges for seismic events of short inter-event time or low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Full waveform methods that do not rely on phase pick and association are suitable for processing these events, but are computationally costly and can lack clear event identification criteria, which is not ideal for real-time processing. To leverage the advantages of both methods, we propose a new workflow, MALMI, which integrates ML and waveform migration to perform automated event detection and location. The new workflow uses a pre-trained ML model to generate continuous phase probabilities that are then back-projected and stacked to locate seismic sources using migration.

We applied the workflow to a microseismic monitoring dataset collected in a borehole at the Utah FORGE geothermal laboratory site. The proposed workflow can automatically detect and locate induced microseismic events from continuous geophone recordings. Different ML models are evaluated for detection capability and phase classification accuracy. We expect that better performance should be possible if a customized ML model re-trained using local dataset would be used in the MALMI workflow. Further comparison with conventional migration methods confirms that MALMI can produce much clearer stacked images with higher resolution and reliability, especially for events with low SNR. The workflow is freely available on GitHub, providing a complementary tool for automated event detection and location from continuous data.

How to cite: Shi, P., Grigoli, F., Lanza, F., and Wiemer, S.: MALMI: towards combining machine learning and waveform migration for fully automated earthquake detection and location, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6087, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6087, 2022.

EGU22-7363 | Presentations | SM3.2

SeisBench - A Toolbox for Machine Learning in Seismology 

Jack Woollam, Jannes Münchmeyer, Frederik Tilmann, Andreas Rietbrock, Dietrich Lange, Thomas Bornstein, Tobias Diehl, Carlo Giunchi, Florian Haslinger, Dario Jozinovic, Alberto Michelini, Joachim Saul, and Hugo Soto

Machine Learning (ML) methods have seen widespread adoption in seismology in recent years. The ability of these techniques to efficiently infer the statistical properties of large datasets often provides significant improvements over traditional techniques when the number of data are large (>millions of examples). With the entire spectrum of seismological tasks, e.g., seismic picking and detection, magnitude and source property estimation, ground motion prediction, hypocentre determination; among others, now incorporating ML approaches, numerous models are emerging as these techniques are further adopted within seismology.

To evaluate these algorithms, quality controlled benchmark datasets that contain representative class distributions are vital. In addition to this, models require implementation through a common framework to facilitate comparison. Accessing both benchmark datasets, and integrating models built in such varying frameworks is currently a time-consuming process, hindering further advancement of ML techniques within seismology. These development bottlenecks also affect 'practitioners' seeking to deploy the latest models on seismic data, who may not want to necessarily learn entirely new ML frameworks to perform this task.

We present SeisBench as a software package to tackle these issues. SeisBench is an open-source framework for deploying ML in seismology. SeisBench standardises access to both models and datasets, whilst also integrating a range of common processing and data augmentation operations through the API. Through SeisBench, users can access several seismological ML models and benchmark datasets available in the literature via a single interface. SeisBench is built to be extensible, with community involvement encouraged to expand the package. Having such frameworks available for accessing leading ML models forms an essential tool for seismologists seeking to iterate and apply the next generation of ML techniques to seismic data.

How to cite: Woollam, J., Münchmeyer, J., Tilmann, F., Rietbrock, A., Lange, D., Bornstein, T., Diehl, T., Giunchi, C., Haslinger, F., Jozinovic, D., Michelini, A., Saul, J., and Soto, H.: SeisBench - A Toolbox for Machine Learning in Seismology, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7363, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7363, 2022.

EGU22-7844 | Presentations | SM3.2

Performance of Deep Learning pickers in routine network processing applications 

Luis M. Fernandez-Prieto, José Enrique García, Antonio Villaseñor, Verónica Sanz, Jean-Baptiste Ammirati, Eduardo Díaz, and Carmen García

In recent years there have been a great progress in earthquake detection and picking arrival times of P and S phases using Deep Learning algorithms. However, the general adoption of these methods for the routine processing of monitoring networks has been held back by factors such as the availability of well documented software, computational resources, and a gap in knowledge of these methods. We have analyzed recent available Deep Learning pickers, comparing the results against data picked by a human operartor and against non-Deep Learning programs. We have used data recorded in several locations, with different characteristics and triggering mechanisms, such as volcanic eruptions, induced seismicity and local eartquakes, recorded using different types of instruments. We have found that the Deep Learning algorithms are able to achieve results comparables to a human operator, and several times better than a classical program, specially in data with a low signal to noise ratio. They are very efficient at ignoring large amplitude transient noise and at picking S waves, a task that is often difficult even for experienced analysts, and they require very few parameters to tune (often only the probability threshold) so an in-depth knowledge of neural networks is not required. (This research has been funded by  Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation MICINN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 grants CGL2017-88864-R and PRE2018-084986).

How to cite: Fernandez-Prieto, L. M., García, J. E., Villaseñor, A., Sanz, V., Ammirati, J.-B., Díaz, E., and García, C.: Performance of Deep Learning pickers in routine network processing applications, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7844, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7844, 2022.

EGU22-8187 | Presentations | SM3.2

Detecting Microseismicity in Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya Using Template Matching Technique 

Ayon Ghosh, Blaž Vičič, Supriyo Mitra, Keith Priestley, and Sunil Kumar Wanchoo

We study microseismicity in the Kashmir seismic gap from broadband data of the Jammu and Kashmir Seismological NETwork (JAKSNET) using the template-matching technique. Template-matching is done by the Python routine ‘PyMPA’ (Vuan et al. 2018) to detect new events. For templates, we use 189 earthquakes, taken from the ISC reviewed catalogue, which occurred between 2013 and 2018. We use 5 second long waveform templates by taking 2.5 s before and after the S-wave arrival. Normalized cross-correlations are calculated for each template earthquake, recorded at different channels, with continuous data from their respective recording channels. The individual cross-correlation traces are shifted according to the travel times of the template earthquake, calculated using a local 1D velocity model, and stacked to get a Network Stack Function (NSF). A detection is declared if the NSF crosses a threshold value eight times the Median Absolute Deviation. We assign the location of the template, corresponding to the detection, as the location of the newly detected event. If multiple templates detect one event, we consider the one with the maximum NSF value. After running the process, we obtain a catalog of 935 events, an immediate 5-fold increase in the number of events. We also observe two clear sequences of events in the middle of 2013 and in the start of 2016. We intend to perform a probabilistic and relative relocation of all the events to get a detailed seismotectonics of the region.

How to cite: Ghosh, A., Vičič, B., Mitra, S., Priestley, K., and Wanchoo, S. K.: Detecting Microseismicity in Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya Using Template Matching Technique, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8187, 2022.

EGU22-8517 | Presentations | SM3.2

Monitoring microseismicity with SeisComP and a local 3D velocity model 

Camilla Rossi, Chiara Cocorullo, and Francesco Grigoli

Microseismic monitoring plays a fundamental role for the risk assessment and management of industrial activities related to the exploitation of georesources. In such application, microseismic monitoring is performed in real-time.

One of the most widely distributed and used tools for seismic monitoring is SeisComP, a software package for automatic data acquisition and processing in real-time or during post-processing developed by the German Research for Geosciences (GFZ).

In this work, we show how SeisComP can be optimized for real-time data-processing for microseismic monitoring of an Underground Gas Storage field in Northern Italy.

We analysed 2-years of continuous seismic data recorded by a network composed of 15 (surface and borehole) stations. In order to improve the accuracy of earthquakes location, after processing seismic data in real-time, we used Joint Hypocentral Inversion techniques to compute a 1D velocity model (both for P and S waves) for the surrounding area of gas storage field. Then, we extracted a P 3D velocity model at reservoir scale, based on the migration velocity from a 3D seismic reflection survey. The Vp model is then converted to Vs by using an average Vp/Vs value extracted from the 1D velocity model and well-logs.

Finally, we compared the different velocities models by analysing earthquakes location obtained with each model.

For the events located in the inner area, our comparison shows a systematic location improvement (both in terms of RMS and waveform coherence) with the 3D model. For events outside that area, the optimized 1D model performs better than the initial model (both in terms of RMS and waveform coherence). Our processing routine for this seismic network is the first application in Italy where a 3D velocity model is fully integrated within the real-time microseismic monitoring operations, as suggested by the Italian Guideline for Microseismicity Monitoring on Industrial activities.

How to cite: Rossi, C., Cocorullo, C., and Grigoli, F.: Monitoring microseismicity with SeisComP and a local 3D velocity model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8517, 2022.

EGU22-9220 | Presentations | SM3.2

Tuning the GRID MT method for the moment tensor inversion of small to moderate size earthquakes 

Marine Menager, Aurélie Guilhem Trilla, and Bertrand Delouis

In order to rapidly detect, locate and characterize seismic events at regional scale, we are currently improving the parametrization of a continuous grid-search moment tensor inversion tool, called GRiD MT (Grid-based Real-Time Determination of Moment Tensor, Kawakatsu, 1998, Tsuruoka, 2009, Guilhem et al., 2011 and 2013, Menager et al., 2021). Here, we first design the procedure for small to moderate size earthquakes in south-eastern France, but we target its expansion to any potential regions of interest. This rapid and continuous moment tensor approach strongly depends on an adequate pre-selection of inversion parameters such as velocity models, station set, frequency band, grid spacing. In a proof of concept for France, we find source solutions (mechanism and magnitude) for two recent and moderate earthquakes (Mw 4.8 2019 Le Teil and M4.9 2014 Barcelonnette) very similar to those found by other institutes (CEA, GEOAZUR, USGS, INGV, …).

Moreover, instead of using a fixed time window in the inversion, we show that the quality of the solution can be improved by modifying each station’s time window depending on P and S wave travel times. This appears to be particularly true for small magnitude earthquake and potentially noisy data.

However, the previous selected parameters for Le Teil and Barcelonnette events are not the best ones to characterize the lower size events (3.4 < Mw < 4.0). We also propose an approach for automatically defining the best set of stations and frequency band depending on the targeted magnitudes in a region of interest. Based on signal/noise ratio (SNR) analysis to determine the signal quality for each station of a possibly dense seismic network, it helps the analyst in its GRiD MT parametrization. Moreover, here, azimuthal coverage is also taken into account in the station selection.

We illustrate the relevance of these proposed improvements with a selection of events. The ultimate aim is to facilitate the implementation of the GRiD MT method for other regions of interest and for different magnitude ranges. 

How to cite: Menager, M., Guilhem Trilla, A., and Delouis, B.: Tuning the GRID MT method for the moment tensor inversion of small to moderate size earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9220, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9220, 2022.

EGU22-10020 | Presentations | SM3.2

Performance evaluation for deep-learning based point-source parameter estimation using a well constrained manual database: examples from the Hengill Geothermal Field, Iceland 

Nima Nooshiri, Nicolas Celli, Francesco Grigoli, Christopher J. Bean, Torsten Dahm, Sigríður Kristjánsdóttir, Anne Obermann, and Stefan Wiemer

In this study, we present a new approach based on recent advances in deep learning for rapid source-parameter estimation of microseismic earthquakes. The seismic inversion is represented in compact form by two convolutional neural networks, with individual feature extraction, and a fully connected neural network, for feature aggregation, to simultaneously obtain moment tensor and spatial location of microseismic sources. The neural network algorithm encapsulates the information about the relationship between seismic waveforms and underlying point-source mechanisms and locations allowing rapid inversion (within a small fraction of a second) once input data are available. A key advantage of the algorithm is that it can be trained using synthesized seismic data only, so it is directly applicable to scenarios where there are insufficient real data for training including temporary seismic networks and hydraulic stimulation experiments, for example. Moreover, we find that the method is robust with respect to perturbations such as observational noise and data incompleteness (missing stations). We apply the new approach on a database of small magnitude (M ≤ 2) earthquakes recorded at the Hellisheiði geothermal field in the Hengill area, Iceland, which is the demonstration site in the EU-GEOTHERMICA project COSEISMIQ (http://www.coseismiq.ethz.ch). For the examined events, the model achieves very good agreement with the inverted solutions determined through standard methodology. The new approach offers great potential for automatic and rapid real-time information on microseismic sources in a deep geothermal context and can be viably used for microseismic monitoring tasks in general.

How to cite: Nooshiri, N., Celli, N., Grigoli, F., Bean, C. J., Dahm, T., Kristjánsdóttir, S., Obermann, A., and Wiemer, S.: Performance evaluation for deep-learning based point-source parameter estimation using a well constrained manual database: examples from the Hengill Geothermal Field, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10020, 2022.

EGU22-10541 | Presentations | SM3.2 | Highlight

Insight on the 2014 MJMA 6.7, northern Nagano earthquake sequence evolution in space and time through high resolved earthquake locations 

Titouan Muzellec, Grazia De Landro, Aldo Zollo, and Guido Russo

The estimation of spatial and temporal changes in the host medium physical properties is a quest to improve risk evaluation and hazard forecasting application. The space-time evolution of the seismicity gives information about stress variations, fluid content, and pore-pressure changes inside the medium. Thus, the accuracy of arrival-time measurements is crucial for travel-time-based seismological applications, such as earthquake location and travel(delay)-time tomography, especially when double-difference times are used. Standard monitoring networks and tools implements single-station, STA/LTA-based, automatic event detection/location procedures, which may produce inconsistent arrival-times of the same phase among stations. To overcome this problem, refined cross-correlation (CC) techniques for time picking have been recently developed. Their basic approach is to use CC to refine picks of event pairs with high waveform similarity. Similar events are grouped in families, considering the max CC values, the inter-distance and/or the focal mechanism similarity. Two drawbacks of this common approach are (1) the impact of noise from individual receiver levels on the quality of reference trace (RT) and (2) the inability to adjust the systematic shift of automatic picks.

Here we propose a new, fully automatic approach to refine the phase time picks. The CC is used to identify family members with a hierarchical clustering procedure. In each family, after the trace alignment, we build the RT by stacking the events weighted by the signal-to-noise ratio and the polarity. We applied this technique to a catalog of 3574 events of the 2014 MJMA 6.7 sequence occurred at the Northern Nagano prefecture. The results indicate that we can improve the precision of phase picks of similar events and to adjust the systematic shift introduced by the automatic picker with mean differences between refined and automatic picks up to 0,5-1 s.

The high consistency of the phase picks allows to increase the accuracy of absolute location by reducing the mean location error from 0,6 km to 0,1 km and the root-mean-square from 0,15 to 0,075. Consequently, we observe an alignment of the seismicity respect to the main fault plane with an 30°-45° east-dipping angle for the shallow part while the deeper part dips at 50°-65°. Then, the double difference location provides highly resolved hypocenter locations and medium parameters by considering events of the same family as events pair. This improvement allows to use fast-tracking methods, as the Vp/Vs in time and the Coda-Wave Interferometry, to get information about the velocity variations before and during the sequence. By using those methods, we expect to get accurate information of the physical properties evolution and especially about the role of fluid in the triggering of the sequence.

How to cite: Muzellec, T., De Landro, G., Zollo, A., and Russo, G.: Insight on the 2014 MJMA 6.7, northern Nagano earthquake sequence evolution in space and time through high resolved earthquake locations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10541, 2022.

EGU22-10588 | Presentations | SM3.2

Automatic Picking of Teleseismic P- and S-Phases using an Autoregressive Prediction Approach 

Johannes Stampa, Felix Eckel, Nina Kallinich, and Thomas Meier

In the recent decade, the amount of available seismological broadband data has increased steeply. Picking later arriving phases such as S-phases is difficult, and there are few manual picks available for these phases. Data sets of manual picks can also be problematic, since phase arrival picks are sensitive to the parameters of the filtering, which are often unknown, and the individual picking behavior of the analysts. However, accurate arrival times, especially for these phases, could be used to improve the accuracy of velocity models obtained from seismic tomography. This necessitates the adoption of automatic techniques for determining teleseismic phase arrival times consistently over a large data set.

In this work, a robust automatic picking algorithm based on autoregressive, multi-component, multiple-sample forward prediction is examined with regards to its accuracy. The phase is identified using the Akaike criterion and the onset time is found by evaluating discontinuities in the instantenous period of the signal. This signal analytic approach is tested using synthetic waveforms as well as real data in conjunction with manual picks obtained from the reviewed ISC-catalog.

Picking errors are estimated by comparing the automatic picks with manual picks, automatic picks at the neighboring stations as well as statistical meth- ods. The quality evaluations suggest potential of using these automatically determined phase arrival times for a travel time tomography.

How to cite: Stampa, J., Eckel, F., Kallinich, N., and Meier, T.: Automatic Picking of Teleseismic P- and S-Phases using an Autoregressive Prediction Approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10588, 2022.

EGU22-11708 | Presentations | SM3.2

Low Frequency Marsquakes and Where to Find Them: Automated Event Back Azimuth Determination Using a Multi-Body Wave Polarisation Analysis Approach 

Géraldine Zenhäusern, Simon Stähler, John Clinton, Domenico Giardini, Savas Ceylan, and Raphaël Garcia

NASA's InSight mission continues to record seismic data over 3 years after landing using its very broadband seismometer. The situation of working with a single station requires efficient back-azimuth determination based on data of available body wave phases in the seismic record.

This study presents an effective way to estimate back azimuths using a comprehensive polarisation analysis. It uses a continuous wavelet transform to transform the seismic signal into time-frequency domain, and then performs an eigenanalysis of the spectral matrix to obtain information on the polarisation of the signal. Non-polarised signals are masked to enhance the seismic signal. We use the polarisation around both the P- and S-wave arrivals in selected frequency bands to estimate the back azimuth. For stronger signals, the P-wave polarisation provides the main information. For weaker signals, the result can be improved significantly based on the orthogonality of the P- and S-wave polarisation vector, which constrains the result for poorly polarised/contaminated P signals. This method is applied to synthetic marsquakes and to well-located earthquakes recorded in Tennant Creek, Australia. We find that the polarisation method reliably estimates the back azimuth for both sets of events.

The Marsquake Service has provided distance estimates for around 35 marsquakes, but only 10 had been assigned back azimuths. Back azimuth estimation – based on the polarisation at narrow-band of initial P-wave energy - is particularly challenging due to the highly scattered signals and noise in the seismic data. Our method, when applied to martian data, obtains results for 30 events in total, significantly improving our understanding of the spatial distribution of seismic activity on Mars. Most of the located events lie in the general Cerberus Fossae region, a large graben structure towards the east of InSight, though we also find quakes in other directions (e.g. north, towards Elysium Mons) that had previously not been expected to be tectonically active. This extended set of located marsquakes will allow for interpretation of martian tectonics, in particular the Cerberus Fossae region. The method could potentially be applied to sparse terrestrial networks, such as ocean bottom seismometers.

How to cite: Zenhäusern, G., Stähler, S., Clinton, J., Giardini, D., Ceylan, S., and Garcia, R.: Low Frequency Marsquakes and Where to Find Them: Automated Event Back Azimuth Determination Using a Multi-Body Wave Polarisation Analysis Approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11708, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11708, 2022.

EGU22-11721 | Presentations | SM3.2

Manual MT inversions in microseismic areas: good practices and building a reference database for the Hengill region, Iceland 

Nicolas Luca Celli, Nima Nooshiri, Christopher J. Bean, Francesco Grigoli, Anne Obermann, and Stefan Wiemer

The determination of seismic moment tensors (MTs) for microseismicity poses challenges because of both the large number of events that are typically recorded, and their low signal to noise ratio. In recent years, automated moment tensor inversion methods have become more and more accurate, but an objective evaluation of their performance is often problematic due to the absence of site-specific, reference databases for comparison. In this study, we build a database of manually inverted MTs for the recent COSEIMIQ project, using the well-tested FociMT/HybridMT inversion method. COSEISMIQ focussed on microseismic monitoring in the Hellisheiði geothermal field, in the Hengill region, southern Iceland, where a dense network of 33 temporary seismic stations was deployed during 2018-2021, offering an ideal case study for microseismic MT inversion.

As a first step, we test the efficacy and possible pitfalls of the manual MT inversion on both a realistic and a simplified synthetic events waveform database. After careful, repeated manual tests, we observe that the inversion is robust across widely different choices of frequency band, but can be triggered to fail by not including key stations in some rare source-station geometries.

We then analyse the real data from the COSEISMIQ experiment, using previously located events from a large, recently developed microseismic catalog of the area. By running preliminary inversions of a subset of events in the centre of the deployment, we are able to pinpoint pre-processing steps that have a key effect on the MT inversion.  We find that in strong noise conditions such as in the Hengill region, the order and phase of the used frequency filter are fundamental parameters in correctly processing the P-wave onset used later for inversion.

After fine-tuning the event preprocessing, we select a larger subset of 197 events with magnitude > 0.8 from the catalog across the whole COSEISMIQ area, including several seismicity clusters at the edge of the deployment. We then pick all 197 events and invert them first with FociMT, then cluster the events based on their location using K-means clustering, and finally re-invert each cluster using HybridMT. The clustered inversion using HybridMT changes some MT solutions significantly, reducing the intra-cluster MT variance for most clusters. Interestingly, some event clusters show increased variance after the HybridMT inversion, suggesting that these include substantially different source mechanisms within a small area.

This new database of carefully inverted MT solutions can now be used as a test dataset to evaluate the performance of automated inversion tools.

How to cite: Celli, N. L., Nooshiri, N., Bean, C. J., Grigoli, F., Obermann, A., and Wiemer, S.: Manual MT inversions in microseismic areas: good practices and building a reference database for the Hengill region, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11721, 2022.

EGU22-11930 | Presentations | SM3.2

Analysis of the 2021 March 27th Mw 5.2 earthquake sequence in the Adriatic Sea using new workflows for offshore seismicity monitoring 

Francesco Grigoli, Alfredo Mazzotti, Irene Molinari, Eusebio Stucchi, Andrea Tognarelli, Mattia Aleardi, and Josip Stipcevic

On 2021 March 27th an Mw 5.2 earthquake occurred in the Adriatic Sea, between the Italia and Croatian coast. The earthquake sequence lasted for several months and consisted of more than 150 seismic events with a magnitude above 2. Analyzing offshore seismic sequences is challenging both for the lack of optimal seismic monitoring networks and detailed enough velocity models. These conditions strongly limit the data analysis procedures, leading to inaccurate results that may have severe effects on the identification of the seismogenic structure associated with the seismic sequence, bringing to wrong seismo-tectonic interpretations, with direct consequences in the seismic hazard assessment of an area. In this study, we analyze the March 2021 Mw 5.2 earthquake sequence that occurred in the Adriatic Sea with recently developed location techniques. Our workflow allows achieving a higher location accuracy, even when dealing with suboptimal monitoring conditions. We analyze this dataset using waveform-based location techniques and a recently developed location technique based on Distance Geometry Solvers (DGS). This last approach uses inter-event distances between earthquake pairs estimated at one or two seismic stations to get high-resolution locations of seismicity clusters. The application of such techniques led to different improvements in locating the seismic sequence, which is more clustered and clearly shows an N-S trending compatible with the geological setting of the area.

How to cite: Grigoli, F., Mazzotti, A., Molinari, I., Stucchi, E., Tognarelli, A., Aleardi, M., and Stipcevic, J.: Analysis of the 2021 March 27th Mw 5.2 earthquake sequence in the Adriatic Sea using new workflows for offshore seismicity monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11930, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11930, 2022.

EGU22-12443 | Presentations | SM3.2

SCDetect: Near real-time computationally efficient waveform cross-correlation based earthquake detection during intense earthquake sequences 

Daniel Armbruster, Maria Mesimeri, Philipp Kästli, Tobias Diehl, Frédérick Massin, and Stefan Wiemer

Aftershock sequences or earthquake swarms generate a high number of seismic events that are not detected by standard regional network routine processes. Undetected earthquakes are mostly due to low signal to noise ratio, overlapping earthquakes, and a network configuration that targets earthquake detection with a homogeneous magnitude of completeness. Furthermore, the analyst’s workload is increasing dramatically during an intense earthquake sequence, which results in prompt manual review of the largest events, only.

We present a computationally efficient and highly customizable tool (SCDetect) to detect earthquakes in near real-time by applying waveform cross-correlation in the time domain based on a set of template events. SCDetect is a free and open-source SeisComP extension module fully integrated into the SeisComP environment. It may be used to process both archived waveform data, when operated in playback mode, as well as real-time data. In either of the use cases, waveform data is accessed through SeisComP’s standard RecordStream interface. Multiple template event based detectors may be configured. The individual detector configuration is fully stream based which allows for generic multi-stream event detection. Event parameter products for newly detected events (i.e. origins, picks, amplitudes, station magnitudes) may be sent to SeisComP's messaging system for further processing. In addition to earthquake detection, we implement amplitude calculation by measuring amplitudes on the horizontal components. SCDetect offers multiple magnitude estimation methods based on the amplitudes of the template earthquakes and the new detections (i.e regression, amplitude ratios). Magnitude estimation is configurable using SeisComP’s bindings configuration.

We applied SCDetect to recent earthquake sequences in Switzerland between 2019 and 2021. The dense seismic network operated by the Swiss Seismological Service offers a unique opportunity to evaluate the performance of the proposed module. Our first results show that these extended earthquake catalogs contain at least ten times more earthquakes than the national earthquake catalogue.

How to cite: Armbruster, D., Mesimeri, M., Kästli, P., Diehl, T., Massin, F., and Wiemer, S.: SCDetect: Near real-time computationally efficient waveform cross-correlation based earthquake detection during intense earthquake sequences, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12443, 2022.

The interest of this research work is focused on the detection of possible pre-seismic perturbations related to medium-sized earthquakes (5≤Mw≤5.9) occurring in the upper ionized atmosphere (about 350 km above the Earth, ionospheric F2-region). For this specific purpose, we have exploited several geodetic data, derived through signal processing of dual-frequency permanent ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS)/Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receivers, located at the Euro-Mediterranean basin.

To find out whether the ionospheric F2-layer is responsive to the energy released during the preparation periods of medium magnitude earthquakes, the Lorca seismic event (May 11th, 2011, Mw 5.1, Murcia region) was taken as an initial sample. For this shallow-focus earthquake (4 km depth), the longitude-latitude coordinates of the epicenter are 1.7114° W, 37.7175° N. As result, modeling regional ionosphere using GPS/GNSS-total electron content (TEC) measurements over the epicentral area through spherical harmonic analysis, allowing us to identify pre-earthquake ionospheric irregularities in response to the M5.1 Lorca event. After discerning the seismo-ionospheric precursors from those caused by space weather effects, via wavelet-based spectral analysis, these irregularities were identified about a week before the onset of the mainshock.

The seismo-geodetic technique adopted in this study validates our hypothesis that stimulates the existence of a strong correlation between deep lithospheric deformations and pre-seismic ionospheric anomalies due to moderate magnitudes.

Keywords: Murcia earthquake, Seismo-ionospheric precursors, Spherical harmonic analysis, Wavelet transform, GPS/GNSS-TEC, Lithospheric deformations, Regional F2-ionosphere maps.

How to cite: Tachema, A.: Could the moderate-sized earthquakes trigger pre-seismic ionospheric irregularities? Study of the 2011 Murcia earthquake in the Mediterranean region (SE-Spain)., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1438, 2022.

EGU22-1505 | Presentations | NH4.1 | Highlight

Testing spatial aftershock forecasts accounting for large secondary events during on going earthquake sequences: A case study of the 2017-2019 Kermanshah sequence 

Behnam Maleki Asayesh, Hamid Zafarani, Sebastian Hainzl, and Shubham Sharma

Large earthquakes are always followed by aftershocks sequence that last for months to years. Sometimes, these aftershocks are as destructive as the mainshocks. Hence, accurate and immediate prediction of aftershocks’ spatial and temporal distribution is of great importance for planning search and rescue activities. Despite large uncertainties associated with the calculation of Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS), it is the most commonly used method for predicting spatial distributions of aftershocks. Recent studies showed that classical Coulomb failure stress maps are outperformed by alternative scalar stress quantities, as well as a distance-slip probabilistic model (R) and deep neural networks (DNN). However, these test results were based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metric, which is not well suited for imbalanced data sets such as aftershock distributions. Furthermore, the previous analyses also ignored the potential impact of large secondary earthquakes.

In order to examine the effects of large events in spatial forecasting of aftershocks during a sequence, we use the 2017-2019 seismic sequence in western Iran. This sequence started by Azgeleh M7.3 mainshock (12 November 2017) and followed by Tazehabad M5.9 (August 2018) and Sarpol-e Zahab M6.3 (November 2018) events. Furthermore, 15 aftershocks with magnitude > 5.0 and more than 8000 aftershocks with magnitude > 1 were recorded by Iranian seismological center (IRSC) during this sequence (12.11.2017-04.07.2019). For this complex sequence, we applied the classical Coulomb failure stress, alternative stress scalars, and R forecast models and used the more appropriate MCC-F1 metric to test the prediction accuracy. We observe that the receiver independent stress scalars (maximum shear and von-Mises stress) perform better than the classical CFS values relying on the specification of receiver mechanisms (ΔCFS resolved on master fault, optimally oriented planes, and variable mechanism). However, detailed analysis based on the MCC-F1 metric revealed that the performance depends on the grid size, magnitude cutoff, and test period. Increasing the magnitude cutoff and decreasing the grid size and test period reduces the performance of all methods. Finally, we found that the performance of all methods except ΔCFS resolved on master fault and optimally oriented planes improve when the source information of large aftershocks is additionally considered, with stress-based models outperforming the R model. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for secondary stress changes in improving earthquake forecasts.

How to cite: Maleki Asayesh, B., Zafarani, H., Hainzl, S., and Sharma, S.: Testing spatial aftershock forecasts accounting for large secondary events during on going earthquake sequences: A case study of the 2017-2019 Kermanshah sequence, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1505, 2022.

EGU22-2152 | Presentations | NH4.1

Extension of the radon monitoring network in seismic areas in Romania 

Victorin - Emilian Toader, Constantin Ionescu, Iren-Adelina Moldovan, Alexandru Marmureanu, Iosif Lingvay, and Ovidiu Ciogescu

The Romanian National Institute of Earth Physics (NIEP) developed a radon monitoring network mainly for Vrancea seismic are characterized by deep earthquakes (a rectangle zone in longitude/ latitude 25.050/ 46.210 - 27.950/ 44.690, 60 Km – 250 Km). Few stations were relocated after a year of operation following inconclusive results regarding the relationship between radon and seismic activity. To the 5 stations that are in the Vrancea area (Bisoca, Nehoiu, Plostina, Sahastru and Lopatari) we added others positioned in areas with surface seismicity (Panciu, Râmnicu Vâlcea, Surlari and Mangalia). The last two are on the Intramoesica fault, which will be monitored in the future along with the Fagaras - Câmpulung fault. Radon together with CO2 - CO is monitored at Râmnicu Vâlcea within the SPEIGN project near a 40 m deep borehole in which the acceleration in three directions, temperature and humidity are recorded. The same project funded the monitoring of radon, CO2 and CO in Mangalia, which is close to the Shabla seismic zone. The last significant earthquake in the Panciu area with ML = 5.7 R occurred on 22.11.2014. The area is seismically active, which justified the installation of a radon detector next to a radio receiver in the ULF band within the AFROS project. Within the same project, radon monitoring is performed at Surlari, following the activity of the Intramoesica fault. In this location we also measure CO2, CO, air temperature and humidity. The first results show a normal radon activity in Panciu. The measurements in Surlari have higher values than those in Panciu, possibly due to the forest where the sensors are located. A special case is Mangalia where the data indicate more local pollution than the effects of tectonic activity. Radon CO2 and CO values vary widely beyond normal limits. The source of these anomalies may be the local drinking water treatment plant or the nearby shipyard. We also recorded abnormal infrasound values that are monitored in the same location. Determining the source of these anomalies requires at least one more monitoring point.

The purpose of expanding radon monitoring is to analyze the possibility of implementing a seismic event forecast. This can be done in a multidisciplinary approach. For this reason, in addition to radon, determinations of CO2, CO, air ionization, magnetic field, inclinations, telluric currents, solar radiation, VLF - ULF radio waves, temperature in borehole, infrasound and acoustics are made.

This research helps organizations specializing in emergencies not only with short-term earthquake forecasts but also with information on pollution and the effects of climate change that are becoming increasingly evident lately. The methods and solutions are general and can be applied anywhere by customizing them according to the specifics of the monitored area.

The main conclusion is that only a multidisciplinary approach allows the correlation of events and ensures a reliable forecast.

How to cite: Toader, V.-E., Ionescu, C., Moldovan, I.-A., Marmureanu, A., Lingvay, I., and Ciogescu, O.: Extension of the radon monitoring network in seismic areas in Romania, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2152, 2022.

EGU22-2979 | Presentations | NH4.1

TEC variation over Europe during the intense tectonic activity in the area of  Arkalochori of Crete on December of 2021 

Michael E. Contadakis, Demeter N. Arabelos, Christos Pikridas, Styllianos Bitharis, and Emmanuel M. Scordilis

This paper is one of a series of papers dealing with the investigation of  the Lower ionospheric variation on the occasion of an intense tectonic activity.In the present paper, we investigate the TEC variations during the intense seismic activity in Arkalochori of Crete on December 2021 over Europe. The Total Electron Content (TEC) data are been provided by the  Hermes GNSS Network managed by GNSS_QC, AUTH Greece, the HxGN/SmartNet-Greece of Metrica S.A, and the EUREF Network. These data were analysed using Discrete Fourier Analysis in order to investigate the TEC turbulence band content. The results of this investigation indicate that the High-Frequency limit fo of the ionospheric turbulence content, increases as aproaching the occurrence time of the earthquake, pointing to the earthquake epicenter, in accordane to our previous investigations. We conclude that the Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere Coupling, LAIC, mechanism through acoustic or gravity waves could explain this phenomenology.

 

Keywords: Seismicity, Lower Ionosphere, Ionospheric Turbulence, Brownian Walk, Aegean area.

How to cite: Contadakis, M. E., Arabelos, D. N., Pikridas, C., Bitharis, S., and Scordilis, E. M.: TEC variation over Europe during the intense tectonic activity in the area of  Arkalochori of Crete on December of 2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2979, 2022.

EGU22-3138 | Presentations | NH4.1

The Jun 15, 2019, M7.2 Kermadec Islands (New Zealand) earthquake as analyzed from ground to space 

Angelo De Santis, Loredana Perrone, Saioa A. Campuzano, Gianfranco Cianchini, Serena D'Arcangelo, Domenico Di Mauro, Dedalo Marchetti, Adriano Nardi, Martina Orlando, Alessandro Piscini, Dario Sabbagh, and Maurizio Soldani

The M7.2 Kermadec Islands (New Zealand) large earthquake occurred on June 15, 2019 as the result of shallow reverse faulting within the Tonga-Kermadec subduction zone. This work deals with the study of the earthquake-related processes that occurred during the preparation phase of this earthquake. We focused our analyses on seismic (earthquake catalogues), atmospheric (climatological archives) and ionospheric data (from ground to space, mainly satellite) in order to disclose the possible Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC). For what concern the ionospheric investigations, we analysed and compared the observations from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiver network and those from satellites in space. Specifically, the data from the European Space Agency (ESA) Swarm satellite constellation and from the China National Space Administration (CNSA, in partnership with Italian Space Agency, ASI) China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES-01) are used in this study. An interesting comparison is made with another subsequent earthquake with comparable magnitude (M7.1) that occurred in Ridgecrest, California (USA) on July 6 of the same year. Both earthquakes showed several multiparametric anomalies that occurred at almost the same times from each earthquake occurrence, evidencing a chain of processes that point to the moment of the corresponding mainshock. In both cases, it is demonstrated that a multiparametric and multilayer analysis is fundamental to better understand the LAIC in complex phenomena such as the earthquakes.

How to cite: De Santis, A., Perrone, L., Campuzano, S. A., Cianchini, G., D'Arcangelo, S., Di Mauro, D., Marchetti, D., Nardi, A., Orlando, M., Piscini, A., Sabbagh, D., and Soldani, M.: The Jun 15, 2019, M7.2 Kermadec Islands (New Zealand) earthquake as analyzed from ground to space, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3138, 2022.

EGU22-3194 | Presentations | NH4.1

Using Operational Earthquake Forecasting Tool for Decision Making: A Synthetic Case Study 

Chen Huang, Håkan Bolin, Vetle Refsum, and Abdelghani Meslem

Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) provides timely information about the time-dependent earthquake probabilities, which facilitates resilience-oriented decision-making. This study utilized the tools developed within the TURNkey (Towards more Earthquake-Resilient Urban Societies through a Multi-Sensor-Based Information System enabling Earthquake Forecasting, Early Warning and Rapid Response Actions) project funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme to demonstrate the benefits of OEF to the decision support system.  The considered tools are developed based on the state-of-the-art knowledge about seismology and earthquake engineering, involving the Bayesian spatiotemporal epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) forecasting model, the time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, the SELENA (SEimic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach) risk analysis, cost-benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making methodology. Moreover, the tools are connected to the dense seismograph network developed also within the TURNkey project and, thus, it is capable of real-time updating the forecasting based on the latest earthquake information and observations (e.g., earthquake catalogue). Through a case study in a synthetic city, this study first shows that the changes in the earthquake probabilities can be used as an indicator to inform the authorities or property owners about the heightened seismicity, based on which the decision-maker can, for example, issue a warning of the potential seismic hazard. Moreover, this study illustrates that OEF together with the risk and loss analysis provides the decision-maker with a better picture of the potential seismic impact on the physical vulnerabilities (e.g., damage, economic loss, functionality) and social vulnerabilities (e.g., casualty and required shelters). Finally, given the decision-maker’s preference, this study shows how the hazard and risk results are used to help the decision-maker to identify the optimal action based on cost-beneficial class and the optimality value computed based on the multi-criteria decision-making methodology.

How to cite: Huang, C., Bolin, H., Refsum, V., and Meslem, A.: Using Operational Earthquake Forecasting Tool for Decision Making: A Synthetic Case Study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3194, 2022.

EGU22-3337 | Presentations | NH4.1

Multiparametric and multilayer investigation of global earthquakes in the World by a statistical approach 

Dedalo Marchetti, Kaiguang Zhu, Angelo De Santis, Saioa A. Campuzano, Donghua Zhang, Maurizio Soldani, Ting Wang, Gianfranco Cianchini, Serena D’Arcangelo, Domenico Di Mauro, Alessandro Ippolito, Adriano Nardi, Martina Orlando, Loredana Perrone, Alessandro Piscini, Dario Sabbagh, Xuhui Shen, Zeren Zhima, and Yiqun Zhang and the Zhu Kaiguang's earthquake research group in Jilin University

Earthquake prediction has always been a challenging task, and some researchers have proposed that it is an even impossible goal, concluding earthquakes are unpredictable events. Such a conclusion seems too extreme and in contrast with several pieces of evidence of alterations recorded by several instrumentations from the ground, atmosphere, and more recently by Earth Observation satellite. On the other side, it is clear that searching the “perfect precursor parameter” doesn’t seem to be a good way, since the earthquake process is a complex phenomenon. In fact, a precursor that works for one earthquake does not necessarily work for the next one, even on the same fault. In some cases, another problem for precursors identification is the recurrency time between the earthquakes, which could be very long and, in such cases, we don’t have comparable observations of earthquakes generated by the same fault system.

In past years, we concentrated mainly on two aspects: statistical and single case study; the first one consists of some statistical evidence on ionospheric disturbances possibly related to M5.5+ earthquakes (e.g., presented at EGU2018-9468, and published by De Santis et al., Scientific Report, 2019), furthermore, some clear signals in the atmosphere statistically preceded the occurrence of M8+ events (e.g., presented at EGU2020-19809). On the other side, we also investigated about 20 earthquakes that occurred in the last ten years, some of them by a very detailed and multiparametric investigation, like the M7.5 Indonesia earthquake (presented at EGU2019-8077 and published by Marchetti et al., JAES, 2020), or the Jamaica earthquake investigation presented at the last EGU2021-15456. We found that both approaches are very important. Actually, the statistical studies can provide proofs that at least some of the detected anomalies seem to be related to the earthquakes, while the single case studies permit us to explore deeply the details and the possible connections between the geolayers (lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere).

In this presentation, we want to show an update of the statistical study of the atmosphere and ionosphere, together with a new statistical investigation of the seismic acceleration before M7.5+ global earthquakes.

Finally, we demonstrate that it is essential to consider the earthquake not as a point source (that is the basic approximation), but in all its complexity, including its focal mechanism, fault rupture length and even other seismological constraints, in order to try to better understand the preparation phase of the earthquakes, and the reasons for their different behaviour. These studies give hope and fundamental (but not yet sufficient) tools for the possible achievement, one day, of earthquakes prediction capabilities.

How to cite: Marchetti, D., Zhu, K., De Santis, A., Campuzano, S. A., Zhang, D., Soldani, M., Wang, T., Cianchini, G., D’Arcangelo, S., Di Mauro, D., Ippolito, A., Nardi, A., Orlando, M., Perrone, L., Piscini, A., Sabbagh, D., Shen, X., Zhima, Z., and Zhang, Y. and the Zhu Kaiguang's earthquake research group in Jilin University: Multiparametric and multilayer investigation of global earthquakes in the World by a statistical approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3337, 2022.

EGU22-3610 | Presentations | NH4.1

Mechanism of frictional discharge plasma at fault asperities 

Kiriha Tanaka, Jun Muto, and Hiroyuki Nagahama

The mechanism of seismic-electromagnetic phenomena (SEP) encouraged as precursors of earthquake forecast remains unrevealed. The previous studies reported that the surface charges of the frictional and fractured quartz are enough to cause electric discharge due to the dielectric breakdown of air. To verify the discharge occurrence, friction experiments between a diamond pin and quartz disk were performed under nitrogen gas with a CCD camera and UV-VIS photon spectrometer (e.g., Muto et al., 2006). The photon emission was observed at the pin-to-disk gap only during the friction. The photon spectra obtained from a friction experiment (normal stresses of 13-20 MPa, a sliding speed of 1.0×10-2 m/s, and a gas pressure of 2.4×104 Pa) showed that the photon was emitted through the second positive band (SPB) system of neutral nitrogen and the first negative band (FNB) system of ionized nitrogen. The estimated potential difference at the gap gave the breakdown electric field and surface charge density on the frictional surface at a gap, where photon was the most intense. These values were enough to cause dielectric breakdown of air. Therefore, the above results demonstrated that frictional discharge could occur on a fault asperity due to dielectric breakdown of ambient gases by frictional electrification. However, the details of electronic transition during the discharge and its type are unknown.
This study discussed the details of the gas pressure dependency for the photon emission intensity and distribution, and the discharge type using the electronic transition theory. Moreover, we compared the surface charge density estimated from the potential difference with that estimated from electron and hole trapping centre concentrations in the frictional quartz subsurfaces measured by electron spin resonance. From this comparison, we also discussed the possibility for the trapping centres to be the sources of the discharge. We could explain the nitrogen gas pressure dependency for the photon emission intensity and vibration temperature observed during our friction experiments using the electron transition theory. For example, Miura et al. (2004) reported that the gas pressure decreases with increasing vibration temperature of the SPB system and the relative intensity in the SPB system to the FNB system. This result showed that the vibration temperature and the relative intensity were about 2800 K and 0.1 during the friction experiment under a pressure of 2.4×104 Pa. The FNB system is related to negative glow charge and the discharge observed during the friction experiments was spark and/or glow discharges. The gas pressure decreases with increasing vibration temperature and molecule density as shown in several previous studies and decrease with increasing electron temperature and density as explained the electron transition theory. This implies that the increase in the free path of excited molecules as gas pressure decreases can result in the photo emission pattern change. The surface charge density of a frictional quartz surface estimated from the potential difference to be 5.5×10-5 C/m2 included in the range of 6.51×10-6–6.4×10-3 C/m² estimated from the trapping centre concentrations. Hence, the trapping centres can be the sources of the frictional discharge.

How to cite: Tanaka, K., Muto, J., and Nagahama, H.: Mechanism of frictional discharge plasma at fault asperities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3610, 2022.

EGU22-4417 | Presentations | NH4.1

The study of the geomagnetic diurnal variation behavior associated with Mw>4.9 Vrancea (Romania) Earthquakes 

Iren Adelina Moldovan, Victorin Emilian Toader, Marco Carnini, Laura Petrescu, Anica Otilia Placinta, and Bogdan Dumitru Enescu

Diurnal geomagnetic variations are generated in the magnetosphere and last for about 24 hours. These can be seen on the recordings of all magnetic observatories, with amplitudes of several tens of nT, on all magnetic components. The shape and amplitude of diurnal variations strongly depend on the geographical latitude of the observatory. In addition to the dominant external source from the interaction with the magnetosphere, the diurnal geomagnetic variation is also influenced by local phenomena, mainly due to internal electric fields. External influence remains unchanged over distances of hundreds of kilometers, while internal influence may differ over very short distances due to the underground conductivity. The ration of the diurnal geomagnetic variation at two stations should be stable in calm periods and could be destroyed by the phenomena that can occur during the preparation of an earthquake, when at the station inside the seismogenic zone, the underground conductivity would change or additional currents would appear. The cracking process inside the lithosphere before and during earthquakes occurrence, possibly modifies the under- ground electrical structure and emits electro-magnetic waves.

In this paper, we study how the diurnal geomagnetic field variations are related to Mw>4.9 earthquakes occurred in Vrancea, Romania. For this purpose, we use two magnetometers situated at 150 km away from each other, one, the Muntele Rosu (MLR) observatory of NIEP, inside the Vrancea seismic zone and the other, the Surlari (SUA) observatory of IGR and INERMAGNET, outside the preparation area of moderate earthquakes. We have studied the daily ranges of the magnetic diurnal variation, R=DBMLR/DBSUA, during the last 10 years, to identify behavior patterns associated with external or internal conditions, where DB= Bmax-Bmin, during a 24 hours period.

As a first conclusion, we can mention the fact that the only visible disturbances appear before some earthquakes in Vrancea with Mw> 5.5, when we see a differentiation of the two recordings due to possible local internal phenomena at MLR. The differentiation consists in the decrease of the value of the vertical component Bzmax-Bzmin at MLR compared to the USA a few days before the earthquake and the return to the initial value after the earthquake. These studies need to be continued in order to determine if it is a repetitive behavior, or if it is just an isolated phenomenon.

Acknowledgments:

The research was supported by: the NUCLEU program (MULTIRISC) of the Romanian Ministry of Research and Innovation through the projects PN19080102 and by the Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI) through the projects PN-III-P2-2.1-PED-2019-1693, 480 PED/2020 (PHENOMENAL) and PN-III-P4-ID-PCE- 2020-1361, 119 PCE/2021 (AFROS).

How to cite: Moldovan, I. A., Toader, V. E., Carnini, M., Petrescu, L., Placinta, A. O., and Enescu, B. D.: The study of the geomagnetic diurnal variation behavior associated with Mw>4.9 Vrancea (Romania) Earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4417, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4417, 2022.

EGU22-5375 | Presentations | NH4.1 | Highlight

Non-tectonic-induced stress variations on active faults 

Yiting Cai and Maxime Mouyen

Non-tectonic processes, namely solid earth tides and surface loads such as ocean, atmosphere, and continental water, constantly modify the stress field of the Earth's crust. Such stress perturbations may trigger earthquakes. Several previous studies reported that tides or hydrological loading could modulate seismicity in some areas. We elaborate on this idea and compute the total Coulomb stress change created by solid earth tides and surface loads together on active faults. We expect that computing a total stress budget over all non-tectonic processes would be more relevant than focusing on one of these processes in particular. The Coulomb stress change is a convenient approach to infer if a fault is brought closer to or further from its critical rupture when experiencing a given stress status. It requires to know 1) the fault's rake and geometry and 2) the value of the stress applied on it, which we retrieve from a subduction zone geometry model (Slab2) and a loading-induced Earth's stress database, respectively. In this study, we focus on the Coulomb stress variations on the Kuril-Japan fault over the few last years. By applying this method to the entire Slab2 catalogue and other known active faults, we aim at producing a database of non-tectonic-induced Coulomb failure function variations. Using earthquakes catalogues, this database can then be used to statistically infer the role of the non-tectonic process in earthquakes nucleation.

How to cite: Cai, Y. and Mouyen, M.: Non-tectonic-induced stress variations on active faults, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5375, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5375, 2022.

EGU22-6296 | Presentations | NH4.1

Analysis of Swarm Satellite Magnetic Field Data before and after the 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal Earthquake Based on Non-negative Tensor Decomposition 

Mengxuan Fan, Kaiguang Zhu, Angelo De Santis, Dedalo Marchetti, Gianfranco Cianchini, Alessandro Piscini, Loredana Perrone, Xiaodan He, Jiami Wen, Ting Wang, Yiqun Zhang, Wenqi Chen, Hanshuo Zhang, Donghua Zhang, and Yuqi Cheng

In this paper, based on the Non-negative Tensor Decomposition (NTD), we analyzed the Y-component ionospheric magnetic field data as observed by Swarm Alpha and Charlie satellites before, during and after the 2015 (Mw=7.8) Nepal earthquake (April 25, 28.231°N 84.731°E). All the observation data were analyzed, including the data collected under quiet and strong geomagnetic activities. For each investigated satellite track, we can obtain a tensor, which is decomposed in three components. We found that the cumulative number of the inside anomalous tracks for one component of decomposition components (i.e., hs1, whose energy and entropy are more concentrated inside the earthquake-sensitive area, shows an accelerated increase which conforms to a sigmoid trend from 60 to 40 days before the mainshock. After that till the day before the mainshock, the cumulative result displays a weak acceleration trend which obeys a power law trend and resumed linear growth after the earthquake. According to the basis vectors, the frequency of the ionospheric magnetic anomalies is around 0.02 to 0.1 Hz, and by the skin depth formula the estimated depth of the mainshock is similar to the real one.

In addition, we did some confutation analysis to exclude the influence of the geomagnetic activity and solar activity on the abnormal phenomenon of the cumulative result for the hs1 component, according to the ap, Dst and F 10.7 indices. We also analyzed another area at the same magnetic latitude with no seismicity and find that its cumulative result shows a linear increase, which means that the accelerated anomalous phenomenon is not affected by the local time or due by chance.

At lithosphere, the cumulative Benioff Strain S also shows two accelerating increases before the mainshock, which is consistent with the cumulative result of the ionospheric anomalies. At the first acceleration, the seismicity occurred around the boundary of the research area not near the epicenter, and most of the ionospheric anomalies offset from the epicenter. During the second acceleration, some seismicity occurred closer to or on the mainshock fault, and the ionospheric anomalies appeared nearby the two faults around the epicenter, as well.

Furthermore, we considered combining with other studies on Nepal earthquake. Therefore, we noticed that the ionospheric magnetic field anomalies began to accelerate two days after the subsurface microwave radiation anomaly detected by Feng Jing et al. (2019). The spatial distribution of some ionospheric anomalies is consistent with the atmospheric Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies found by Ouzounov et al. (2021). The latter occurred around two faults near the epicenter and the atmospheric anomalies occurred earlier than the ionospheric anomalies.

Considering the occurrence time of the anomalies in different layers, the abnormal phenomenon appeared in lithosphere, then transferred to the atmosphere, and at last occurred in the ionosphere. These results can be described by the Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere Coupling model.

All these analyses indicate that by means of the NTD method, we can use all observed multi-channel data to analyze the Nepal earthquake and obtain a component whose anomalies are likely to be related to the earthquake. 

How to cite: Fan, M., Zhu, K., De Santis, A., Marchetti, D., Cianchini, G., Piscini, A., Perrone, L., He, X., Wen, J., Wang, T., Zhang, Y., Chen, W., Zhang, H., Zhang, D., and Cheng, Y.: Analysis of Swarm Satellite Magnetic Field Data before and after the 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal Earthquake Based on Non-negative Tensor Decomposition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6296, 2022.

A very strong earthquake of magnitude Mw8.2 struck the coastal zone of Alaska (USA), on July 29, 2021. This earthquake was felt around the Gulf of Alaska, on a wide offshore area belonging to USA and Canada. In order to identify an anomalous geomagnetic signal before the onset of this earthquake, we retrospectively analyzed the data collected on the interval June 17 - July 31, 2021, via internet (www.intermagnet.org), at the two geomagnetic observatories, College (CMO) - Alaska and Newport (NEW)-USA, by using the polarization parameter (BPOL) and the strain effect–related to geomagnetic signal identification. Thus, for the both observation sites (CMO and NEW), the daily mean distribution of the BPOL and its standard deviation (STDEV) are carried out using an FFT band-pass filtering in the ULF range (0.001-0.0083Hz). Further on, a statistical analysis based on a standardized random variable equation was applied to emphasize the following: a) the anomalous signature related to Mw8.2 earthquake on the both time series BPOL*(CMO) and BPOL*(NEW); b) the differentiation of the transient local anomalies associated with Mw8.2 earthquake from the internal and external parts of the geomagnetic field, taking the NEW observatory as reference. Consequently, on the BPOL*(NEW-CMO) time series, carried out on the interval 07-31 July, 2021, a very clear anomaly of maximum, greater than 1.2 STDEV, was detected on July 22, with 7 days before the onset of Mw8.2 earthquake.

How to cite: Stanica, D. A.: ANOMALOUS GEOMAGNETIC SIGNAL EMPHASISED BEFORE THE Mw8.2 ALASKA EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED ON JULY 29, 2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7107, 2022.

Among the different parameters, the fluctuations of Earth's thermally emitted radiation, as measured by sensors on board of satellite systems operating in the Thermal Infra-Red (TIR) spectral range and Earth's surface deformation as recorded by satellite radar interferometry, have been proposed since long time as potential earthquake precursors. Nevertheless, the spatiotemporal relationship between the two different phenomena has been ignored till now.

On September 27, 2021, a strong earthquake of magnitude M5.8 occurred in Crete, near the village of Arkalochori at 06:17:21 UTC, as the result of shallow normal faulting. The epicenter of the seismic event was located at latitude 35.15 N and longitude 25.27 E, while the focal depth was 10 km. Since the beginning of June, almost 4 months earlier, more than 400 foreshocks ranging in magnitude from M0.5 to M4.8 were recorded in the broader area while the strongest aftershock (M 5.3) occurred on September 28th at 04:48:09 UTC.

10 years of MODIS Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km satellite records were incorporated to the RETIRA index computation in order to detect and map probable pre-seismic and co-seismic thermal anomalies in the area of tectonic activation. At the same time, SAR images of the Sentinel-1 Copernicus satellite in both geometries of acquisition were used to create the differential interferograms and the displacement maps according to the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technique. Then, the two kinds of datasets (i.e thermal anomaly maps and crustal deformation maps) were introduced into a Geographic Information System environment along with geological formations, active faults, and earthquakes’ epicenters. By overlapping all the aforementioned data, their spatiotemporal relation is explored.

How to cite: Peleli, S., Kouli, M., and Vallianatos, F.: Investigating the spatiotemporal relationship between thermal anomalies and surface deformation; The Arkalochori Earthquake sequence of September 2021, Crete, Greece., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7148, 2022.

EGU22-7309 | Presentations | NH4.1

Wave-like structures prior to very recent southeastern Mediterranean earthquakes as recorded by a VLF/LF radio receiver in Athens (Greece) 

Dimitrios Z. Politis, Stelios M. Potirakis, Sagardweep Biswas, Sudipta Sasmal, and Masashi Hayakawa

A VLF (10 – 47.5 kHz) radio receiver with call sign UWA has recently been installed at the University of West Attica in Athens (Greece) and is continuously monitoring the lower ionosphere by means of the receptions from many transmitters, in order to identify any possible pre-seismic signatures or other precursors associated with extreme geophysical and space phenomena. In this study, we examine the case of three very recent strong mainshocks with magnitude Mw ≥ 5.5 that happened in September and October of 2021 in the southeastern Mediterranean. The VLF data used in this work correspond to the recordings of one specific transmitter with the call sign “ISR” which is located in Negev (Israel). The borders of the 5th Fresnel zone of the corresponding sub-ionospheric propagation path (ISR-UWA) are close in distance with the epicenters of the two earthquakes (EQ), while the third one is located within the 5th Fresnel zone of the specific path. In this work, we computed the morlet wavelet scalogram of the nighttime amplitude signal in order to check for any embedded wave-like structures, which would indicate the existence of Atmospheric Gravity Waves (AGW) before each one of the examined EQs. In our investigation, we also checked for any other global extreme phenomena, such as geomagnetic storms and solar flares, which may have occurred close in time with the examined EQs and could have a contaminating impact on the obtained results. Our results revealed wave-like structures in the amplitude of the signal a few days before the occurrence of these three EQs.

How to cite: Politis, D. Z., Potirakis, S. M., Biswas, S., Sasmal, S., and Hayakawa, M.: Wave-like structures prior to very recent southeastern Mediterranean earthquakes as recorded by a VLF/LF radio receiver in Athens (Greece), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7309, 2022.

EGU22-8280 | Presentations | NH4.1

Primary-level Site Effect Zoning in Developing Urban Areas Through the Geomorphic Interpretation of Landforms 

Zahra Pak Tarmani, Zohre Masoumi, and Esmaeil Shabanian

The site effect has a great impact on seismic hazard assessment in urban and industrial regions.
For instance, a layer of soft soil with a thickness of several meters amplifies seismic waves from
1.5 to 6 times relative to the underlying bedrock. Therefore, investigating the main characteristics
of Quaternary deposits such as the granulometry and mechanical layering is crucial in site effect
studies. These parameters are directly related to the local geologic/geomorphic setting and genesis
processes of the Quaternary deposits. Nevertheless, large cities in development countries have 
rapidly been enlarged covering Quaternary terrains before being evaluated for the site effect. This
rather rapid growth in urbanization interested us to take advantage of ancient aerial photographs
reprocessed with new image processing techniques in order to provide 3D terrain models from
such kind of areas before the recent urbanization. It helped us in the geomorphic terrain
classification and the detection of regions with different site effects originally caused by the
geomorphic setting and genesis of the Quaternary terrains. For example, site effect in a river flood
plain will be different from surrounding areas underlined by alluvial conglomerates or bedrock.
The main target of this study is investigating the primary-level site effect in Urmia city using 3D
geomorphic models derived from ancient aerial photos taken in 1955. Urmia in NW Iran is one of
the populated high-risk areas according to the standard regulations of earthquake in Iran, and
covers a wide region from mountainous areas to the ancient coast of Lake Urmia, with the Shahr
Chai River as the axial drainage. We created the 3D terrain model through the Structure from
Motion (SfM) algorithm. We have provided a detailed geomorphic map of Plio-Quaternary terrains
using the 3D Anaglyph view, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and orthophoto-mosaic of the
region. It was complemented by granulometry and mechanical layering information from the
available geotechnical boreholes to reconstruct a shallow soil structure model for the area. It
allowed us establishing a primary-level site effect zoning for Urmia. Our results reveal the
presence of five distinct geomorphic zones, with different genesis processes and soil characteristics
from piedmont to coastal zones, which represent different soil structures and probable site effects.
This zoning paves the way for performing complementary site effect investigations with lower
time consummation and cost. The developed method, proposes a sophisticated tool to evaluate
primary site effect in areas covered by urbanization subjected to future natural hazards like
earthquake, landslide and flood before designing geophysical networks for the measurement of
quantitative site effect parameters such as Nakamura microtremor H/V and Multichannel Analysis
of Surface Waves.
Key words: Earthquake hazard, Site effect, Image Processing, Aerial photos, Quaternary geology, Structure from
Motion 

How to cite: Pak Tarmani, Z., Masoumi, Z., and Shabanian, E.: Primary-level Site Effect Zoning in Developing Urban Areas Through the Geomorphic Interpretation of Landforms, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8280, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8280, 2022.

EGU22-8420 | Presentations | NH4.1

Ionospheric perturbations related to seismicity and volcanic eruptions inferred from VLF/LF electric field measurements 

Hans U. Eichelberger, Konrad Schwingenschuh, Mohammed Y. Boudjada, Bruno P. Besser, Daniel Wolbang, Maria Solovieva, Pier F. Biagi, Manfred Stachel, Özer Aydogar, Christoph Schirninger, Cosima Muck, Claudia Grill, and Irmgard Jernej

In this study we investigate electric field perturbations from sub-ionospheric VLF/LF paths which cross seismic and volcanic active areas. We use waveguide cavity radio links from the transmitters TBB (26.70 kHz, Bafa, Turkey) and ITS (45.90 kHz, Niscemi, Sicily, Italy) to the seismo-electromagnetic receiver facility GRZ (Graz, Austria). The continuous real-time amplitude and phase measurements have a temporal resolution of 1 sec, events are analyzed for the period 2020-2021. Of high interest in this time span are paroxysms of the stratovolcano Mt. Etna, Sicily, Italy. We show electric field amplitude variations which could be related to atmospheric waves, occurred at the active crater and propagated up to the lower ionosphere. This corresponds to vertical coupling processes from the ground to the E-region, the upper waveguide boundary during night-time. Ionospheric variations possibly related to earthquakes are discussed for events along the TBB-GRZ path, assumed is an area given by the so-called effective precursor manifestation zone [1,2]. The findings indicate statistical relations between electric field amplitude variations of the ITS-GRZ path in the VLF/LF sub-ionospheric waveguide and high volcanic activity of Etna. For earthquakes multi-parametric observations shall be taken into account to diagnose physical processes related to the events. In summary, VLF/LF investigations in a network together with automated data processing can be an essential component of natural hazards characterization.

References:

[1] Dobrovolsky, I.P., Zubkov, S.I., and Miachkin, V.I., Estimation of the size of earthquake preparation zones, PAGEOPH 117, 1025–1044, 1979. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00876083

[2] Bowman, D.D., Ouillon, G., Sammis, C.G., Sornette, A., and Sornette, D., An observational test of the critical earthquake concept, JGR Solid Earth, 103, B10, 24359-24372, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1029/98JB00792

How to cite: Eichelberger, H. U., Schwingenschuh, K., Boudjada, M. Y., Besser, B. P., Wolbang, D., Solovieva, M., Biagi, P. F., Stachel, M., Aydogar, Ö., Schirninger, C., Muck, C., Grill, C., and Jernej, I.: Ionospheric perturbations related to seismicity and volcanic eruptions inferred from VLF/LF electric field measurements, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8420, 2022.

EGU22-8426 | Presentations | NH4.1 | Highlight

Earthquake nowcasting: Retrospective testing in Greece 2019 - 2021 

Gerasimos Chouliaras, Efthimios S. Skordas, and Nikolaos Sarlis

Earthquake nowcasting [1] (EN) is a modern method to estimate seismic risk by evaluating the progress of the earthquake cycle in fault systems [2]. EN employs natural time [3], which uniquely estimates seismic risk by means of the earthquake potential score (EPS) [1,4] and has found many useful applications both regionally and globally [1, 2, 4-10]. Among these applications, here we focus on those in Greece since 2019 [2], by using the earthquake catalogue of the Institute of Geodynamics of the National Observatory of Athens[11–13] (NOA) for the estimation of the EPS in various locations: For example, the ML(NOA)=6.0 off-shore Southern Crete earthquake on 2 May 2020, the ML(NOA)=6.7 Samos earthquake on 30 October 2020, the ML(NOA)=6.0 Tyrnavos earthquake on 3 March 2021, the ML(NOA)=5.8 Arkalohorion Crete earthquake on 27 September 2021, the ML(NOA)=6.3 Sitia Crete earthquake on 12 October 2021. The results are promising and reveal that earthquake nowcast scores provide useful information on impending seismicity.

[1] J.B. Rundle, D.L. Turcotte, A. Donnellan, L. Grant Ludwig, M. Luginbuhl, G. Gong, Earth and Space Science 3 (2016) 480–486. dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016EA000185

[2] J.B. Rundle, A. Donnellan, G. Fox, J.P. Crutchfield, Surveys in Geophysics (2021). dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10712-021-09655-3

[3] P.A. Varotsos, N.V. Sarlis, E.S. Skordas, Phys. Rev. E 66 (2002) 011902. dx.doi.org/10.1103/physreve.66.011902

[4] S. Pasari, Pure Appl. Geophys. 176 (2019) 1417–1432. dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-2037-0

[5] M. Luginbuhl, J.B. Rundle, D.L. Turcotte, Pure and Applied Geophysics 175 (2018) 661–670. dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-1778-0

[6] M. Luginbuhl, J.B. Rundle, D.L. Turcotte, Geophys. J. Int. 215 (2018) 753–759. dx.doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggy315

[7] N.V. Sarlis, E.S. Skordas, Entropy 20 (2018) 882. dx.doi.org/10.3390/e20110882

[8] S. Pasari, Y. Sharma, Seismological Research Letters 91 (6) (2020) 3358–3369. dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220200104

[9] J. Perez-Oregon, F. Angulo-Brown, N.V. Sarlis, Entropy 22 (11) (2020) 1228. dx.doi.org/10.3390/e22111228

[10] P.K. Varotsos, J. Perez-Oregon, E.S. Skordas, N.V. Sarlis, Applied Sciences 11 (21) (2021) 10093. dx.doi.org/10.3390/app112110093

[11] G. Chouliaras, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 9 (3) (2009) 905–912. dx.doi.org/10.5194/ nhess-9-905-2009

[12] G. Chouliaras, N.S. Melis, G. Drakatos, K. Makropoulos, Advances in Geosciences 36 (2013) 7–9. dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-36-7-2013

[13] A. Mignan, G. Chouliaras, Seismological Research Letters 85 (3) (2014) 657–667. dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220130209

How to cite: Chouliaras, G., Skordas, E. S., and Sarlis, N.: Earthquake nowcasting: Retrospective testing in Greece 2019 - 2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8426, 2022.

The visibility graph method has allowed to identify statistical properties of earthquake magnitude time series. So that, such statistical features in the time series have helped to classify the earthquakes sequences in different categories according with their tectonical sources related with their dynamical seismicity. The Tehuantepec Isthmus subduction zone, México, has showed different dynamical behavior before and after the M8.2 occurred on September 07, 2017. This behavior is associated with the temporal correlations observed in the magnitude sequences. With the aim to characterize these correlations we use the visibility graph method which has showed great potential to get the dynamical properties of studied system from the statistical properties in the network graph. In this study we investigate four periods: the first, between 2005 and 2012, the second (before the M8.2 EQ) from 2012 to 2017, the third from September 2017 to March 2018 corresponding to aftershocks period, and the fourth from April to December 2021, in order to find type of connectivity corresponding to each one, we have computed the distribution function P(k) of the connectivity degree k. Our results show the connectivity increases till the earthquake and decrease in the aftershocks period.

How to cite: Ramírez-Rojas, A. and Flores-Márquez, E. L.: Visibility graph analysis to identify correlations in the magnitude earthquake time series monitored in the Tehuantepec Isthmus subduction zone, México., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8718, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8718, 2022.

EGU22-8924 | Presentations | NH4.1 | Highlight

The Cascading Foreshock Sequence of the Ms 6.4 Yangbi Earthquake in Yunnan, China 

Gaohua Zhu, Hongfeng Yang, Yen Joe Tan, Mingpei Jin, Xiaobin Li, and Wei Yang

Foreshocks may provide valuable information on the nucleation process of large earthquakes. The 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi, Yunnan, China, earthquake was preceded by abundant foreshocks in the ~75 hours leading up to the mainshock. To understand the space-time evolution of the foreshock sequence and its relationship to the mainshock nucleation, we built a high‐precision earthquake catalog using a machine-learning phase picker—EQtransformer and the template matching method. The source parameters of 17 large foreshocks and the mainshock were derived to analyze their interaction. Observed “back-and-forth” spatial patterns of seismicity and intermittent episodes of foreshocks without an accelerating pattern do not favor hypotheses that the foreshocks were a manifestation of a slow slip or fluid front propagating along the mainshock’s rupture plane. The ruptured patches of most large foreshocks were adjacent to one another with little overlap, and the mainshock eventually initiated near the edge of the foreshocks’ ruptured area where there had been a local increase in shear stress. These observations are consistent with a triggered cascade of stress transfer, where previous foreshocks load adjacent fault patches to rupture as additional foreshocks, and eventually the mainshock.

How to cite: Zhu, G., Yang, H., Tan, Y. J., Jin, M., Li, X., and Yang, W.: The Cascading Foreshock Sequence of the Ms 6.4 Yangbi Earthquake in Yunnan, China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8924, 2022.

EGU22-9690 | Presentations | NH4.1 | Highlight

Lesson learnt after long-term (>10 years) correlation analyses between satellite TIR anomalies and earthquakes occurrence performed over Greece, Italy, Japan and Turkey 

Valeria Satriano, Roberto Colonna, Angelo Corrado, Alexander Eleftheriou, Carolina Filizzola, Nicola Genzano, Hattori Katsumi, Mariano Lisi, Nicola Pergola, Vallianatos Filippos, and Valerio Tramutoli

In the recent years, in order to evaluate the possible spatial-temporal correlation among anomalies in Earth’s thermally emitted InfraRed radiation and earthquakes occurrence, several long-term studies have been performed. Different seismically active areas around the world have been this way investigated by using TIR sensors on board geostationary (e.g. Eleftheriou et al. 2016, Genzano et al., 2020, Genzano et al., 2021, Filizzola et al., 2022) and polar (e.g. Zhang and Meng, 2019) satellites.  Since the study of Filizzola et al. (2004) the better S/N ratio achievable by the geostationary sensors (compared with the polar ones) made this kind of sensors the first choice for this kind of long-term analyses.

In this paper the lesson learnt after 20 years of satellite TIR analyses are critically analyzed in the perspective of the possible inclusion of such anomalies among the parameters usefully contributing to the construction of a multi-parametric system for a time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard.

The more recent results achieved by applying the RST (Tramutoli et al., 2005, Tramutoli 2007) approach to long-term (>10 years) TIR satellite data collected by the geostationary sensors SEVIRI (on board MSG) - over Greece (Elefteriou et al., 2016), Italy (Genzano et al, 2020) and Turkey (Filizzola et al., 2022) – and  by JAMI and IMAGER (on board MTSAT satellites) over Japan (Genzano et al., 2021) will be also presented and discussed.

References

Eleftheriou, A., C. Filizzola, N. Genzano, T. Lacava, M. Lisi, R. Paciello, N. Pergola, F. Vallianatos, and V. Tramutoli (2016), Long-Term RST Analysis of Anomalous TIR Sequences in Relation with Earthquakes Occurred in Greece in the Period 2004–2013, PAGEOPGH, 173(1), 285–303, doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1116-8.

Filizzola, C., N. Pergola, C. Pietrapertosa, V. Tramutoli (2004), Robust satellite techniques for seismically active areas moni-toring: a sensitivity analysis on September 7, 1999 Athens’s earthquake. Phys. Chem. Earth, 29, 517–527. 10.1016/j.pce.2003.11.019

Filizzola C., A. Corrado, N. Genzano, M. Lisi, N. Pergola, R. Colonna and V. Tramutoli (2022), RST Analysis of Anomalous TIR Sequences in relation with earthquakes occurred in Turkey in the period 2004–2015, Remote Sensing, (accepted).

Genzano, N., C. Filizzola, M. Lisi, N. Pergola, and V. Tramutoli (2020), Toward the development of a multi parametric system for a short-term assessment of the seismic hazard in Italy, Ann. Geophys, 63(5) doi:10.4401/ag-8227.

Genzano, N., C. Filizzola, K. Hattori, N. Pergola, and V. Tramutoli (2021), Statistical correlation analysis between thermal infrared anomalies observed from MTSATs and large earthquakes occurred in Japan (2005–2015). JGR: Solid Earth, 126, e2020JB020108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB020108

Tramutoli, V. (2007), Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) for Natural and Environmental Hazards Monitoring and Mitigation: Theory and Applications, in 2007 International Workshop on the Analysis of Multi-temporal Remote Sensing Images, pp. 1–6, IEEE. doi: 10.1109/MULTITEMP.2007.4293057

Tramutoli, V., V. Cuomo, C. Filizzola, N. Pergola, C. Pietrapertosa (2005), Assessing the potential of thermal infrared satellite surveys for monitoring seismically active areas: The case of Kocaeli (İzmit) earthquake, August 17, 1999. RSE, 96, 409–426. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2005.04.006

Zhang, Y. and Meng, Q. (2019), A statistical analysis of TIR anomalies extracted by RSTs in relation to an earthquake in the Sichuan area using MODIS LST data, NHESS, 19, 535–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-535-2019, 2019

How to cite: Satriano, V., Colonna, R., Corrado, A., Eleftheriou, A., Filizzola, C., Genzano, N., Katsumi, H., Lisi, M., Pergola, N., Filippos, V., and Tramutoli, V.: Lesson learnt after long-term (>10 years) correlation analyses between satellite TIR anomalies and earthquakes occurrence performed over Greece, Italy, Japan and Turkey, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9690, 2022.

EGU22-10161 | Presentations | NH4.1 | Highlight

Analysis of VLF and LF signal fluctuations recorded by Graz facility prior to earthquakes occurrences 

Mohammed Y. Boudjada, Pier Francesco Biagi, Hans Ulrich Eichelberger, Patrick H.M. Galopeau, Konrad Schwingenschuh, Maria Solovieva, Helmut Lammer, Wolfgang Voller, and Masashi Hayakawa

We report in our study on earthquakes that occurred in Croatia and Slovenia in the period from 1 Jan. 2020 to 31 Dec. 2021. Those seismic events happened in a localized region confined between 13.46°E and 17.46°E in longitude and 45.03°N and 49.03°N in latitude. Maximum magnitudes Mw6.4 and Mw5.4 occurred, respectively, on 29 Dec. 2020, at 11:19 UT, and 22 March 2020, at 05:24 UT. We use two-radio system, INFREP (Biagi et al., 2019) and UltraMSK (Schwingenschuh et al., 2011) to investigate the reception conditions of LF-VLF transmitter signals. The selected earthquakes occurred at distances less than 300km from the Graz station (47.03°N, 15.46°E) in Austria. First, we emphasize on the time evolutions of earthquakes that occurred along a same meridian, i.e. at a geographical longitude of 16°E. Second, we study the daily VLF-LF transmitter signals that exhibit a minimum around local sunrises and sunsets. This daily variations are specifically considered two/three weeks before the occurrence of the two intense events with magnitudes Mw6.4 and Mw5.4. We discuss the unusual terminator time motions of VLF-LF signals linked to earthquakes occurrences, and their appearances at sunrise- or sunset-times. Such observational features are interpreted as disturbances of the transmitter signal propagations in the ionospheric D- and E-layers above the earthquakes preparation zone (Hayakawa, 2015).

 

References:

Biagi et al., The INFREP Network: Present Situation and Recent Results, Open J. Earth. Research, 8, 2019.

Hayakawa, Earthquake Prediction with Radio Techniques, John Wiley and Sons, Singapore, 2015.

Schwingenschuh et al., The Graz seismo-electromagnetic VLF facility, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2011

How to cite: Boudjada, M. Y., Biagi, P. F., Eichelberger, H. U., Galopeau, P. H. M., Schwingenschuh, K., Solovieva, M., Lammer, H., Voller, W., and Hayakawa, M.: Analysis of VLF and LF signal fluctuations recorded by Graz facility prior to earthquakes occurrences, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10161, 2022.

EGU22-10209 | Presentations | NH4.1

Enhancing Data Sets From Rudna Deep Copper Mine, SW Poland: Implications on Detailed Structural Resolution and Short-Term Hazard Assessment 

Monika Sobiesiak, Konstantinos Leptokaropoulos, Monika Staszek, Natalia Poiata, Pascal Bernard, and Lukasz Rudzinski

Applying the software BackTrackBB (Poiata et al., 2016) for automated detection and location of seismic events to data sets from Rudna Deep Copper Mine, SW Poland, lead to an enhancement of existing routine catalogs by about a factor of 10.000 in number of events. Following our hypothesis that all types of seismic events contribute to seismic hazard in a mine, we included all events from major mine collapses (M>3), recorded blasting works and detonations, to machinery noise. These enhanced data sets enabled a detailed spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity in the mine and a short-term hazard assessment on a daily basis.

In this study, we focus on the data from two days with major mine collapses: the 2016-11-29 Mw=3.4, and the 2018-09-15 Mw=3.7 events. The spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity of both days deciphered detailed horizontal and vertical structures and revealed the increase of seismic activity after the daily blasting work. The daily histograms exhibit similar patterns, suggesting the dominant influence of explosions on the overall seismicity in the mine. Using the enhanced data sets for short-term hazard assessment, we observed gaps in the activity rates before the main shocks. They were followed by sudden increase of seismicity, a simultaneous drop in seismic b-value, and an increase in exceedance probability for the assumed largest magnitude events. This demonstrates the usefulness of enhanced data sets from surface networks for revealing precursory phenomena before destructive mine collapses and suggests a testing strategy for early warning procedures.

How to cite: Sobiesiak, M., Leptokaropoulos, K., Staszek, M., Poiata, N., Bernard, P., and Rudzinski, L.: Enhancing Data Sets From Rudna Deep Copper Mine, SW Poland: Implications on Detailed Structural Resolution and Short-Term Hazard Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10209, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10209, 2022.

EGU22-10222 | Presentations | NH4.1

Optimized setup and long-term validation of anomaly detection methods for earthquake-related ionospheric-TEC (Total Electron Content) parameter over Italy and Mediterranean area 

Roberto Colonna, Carolina Filizzola, Nicola Genzano, Mariano Lisi, Nicola Pergola, and Valerio Tramutoli

Near the end of the last century and the beginning of the new, different types of geophysical parameters (components of the electromagnetic field in several frequency bands, thermal anomalies, radon exhalation from the ground, ionospheric parameters and more) have been proposed as indicators of variability potentially related to the earthquakes occurrence. During the last decade, thanks to the availability of historical satellite observations which has begun to be significantly large and thanks to the exponential growth of artificial intelligence techniques, many advances have been made on the study of the seismic-related anomalies detection observed from space.

In this work, the variations in Total Electron Content (TEC) parameter are investigated as indicator of the ionospheric status potentially affected by earthquake related phenomena. In-depth and systematic analysis of multi-year historical data series plays a key role in distinguishing between anomalous TEC variations and TEC changes associated with normal ionospheric behavior or non-terrestrial forcing phenomena (mainly dominated by solar cycles and activity).

In order to detect the differences between the two types of variation, we performed an optimal setting of the methodological inputs for the detection of seismically related anomalies in ionospheric-TEC using machine learning techniques and validating the findings on multiple long-term historical series (mostly nearly 20-year). The setting was optimized using techniques capable of combining multi-year time series of TEC satellite data and multi-year time series of seismic catalogues, simulating their behaviors in tens of thousands of possible combinations and classifying them according to criteria established a priori. Input setup and validation were done by investigating possible links between TEC anomalies and earthquake occurring over Italy and Mediterranean area. We will show and comment the results of both, optimal input setting and statistical correlation analyses consequently performed, and we will discuss the potential impact of these on future developments in this field.

How to cite: Colonna, R., Filizzola, C., Genzano, N., Lisi, M., Pergola, N., and Tramutoli, V.: Optimized setup and long-term validation of anomaly detection methods for earthquake-related ionospheric-TEC (Total Electron Content) parameter over Italy and Mediterranean area, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10222, 2022.

EGU22-10371 | Presentations | NH4.1

Utilizing machine learning techniques along with GPS ionospheric TEC maps for potentially predicting earthquake events 

Yuval Reuveni, Sead Asaly, Nimrod Inbar, and Leead Gottlieb

The scientific use of ground and space-based remote sensing technology is inherently vital for studying different lithospheric-tropospheric-ionospheric coupling mechanisms, which are imperative for understanding geodynamic processes. Current remote sensing technologies operating at a wide range of frequencies, using either sound or electromagnetic emitted waves, have become a valuable tool for detecting and measuring signatures presumably associated with earthquake events. Over the past two decades, numerous studies have been presenting promising results related to natural hazards mitigation, especially for earthquake precursors, while other studies have been refuting them. While highly impacting for geodynamic processes the controversy around precursors that may precede earthquakes yet remains significant. Thus, predicting where and when natural hazard event such as earthquake is likely to occur in a specific region of interest still remains a key challenging task in geo-sciences related research. Recently, it has been discovered that natural hazard signatures associated with strong earthquakes appear not only in the lithosphere, but also in the troposphere and ionosphere. Both ground and space-based remote sensing techniques can be used to detect early warning signals from places where stresses build up deep in the Earth’s crust and may lead to a catastrophic earthquake. Here, we propose to implement a machine learning Support Vector Machine (SVM) technique, applied with GPS ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) pre-processed time series estimations, extracted from global ionospheric TEC maps, to evaluate any potential precursory caused by the earthquake and is manifested as ionospheric TEC anomaly. Each TEC time series data was geographically extracted around the earthquake epicenter and calculated by weighted average of the four closest points to evaluate any potential influence caused by the earthquake. After filtering and screening our data from any solar or geomagnetic influence at different time scales, our results indicate that with large earthquakes (> 6 [Mw]), there is a potentially high probability of gaining true negative prediction with accuracy of 85.7% as well as true positive prediction accuracy of 80%. Our suggested method has been also tested with different skill scores such as Accuracy (0.8285), precision (0.85), recall (0.8), Heidke Skill Score (0.657) and Tue Skill Statistics (0.657).

How to cite: Reuveni, Y., Asaly, S., Inbar, N., and Gottlieb, L.: Utilizing machine learning techniques along with GPS ionospheric TEC maps for potentially predicting earthquake events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10371, 2022.

EGU22-10488 | Presentations | NH4.1

Results of the analysis of VLF and ULF perturbations and modeling atmosphere-ionosphere coupling 

Yuriy Rapoport, Volodymyr Reshetnyk, Asen Grytsai, Alex Liashchuk, Alla Fedorenko, Masashi Hayakawa, Volodymyr Grimalsky, and Sergei Petrishchevskii

The work continues one presented by us in 2021, which included the identification of three groups of periods in the VLF amplitude variations in the waveguide Earth-Ionosphere (WGEI) according to data of Japan receivers, obtained in 2014–2017. Periods of 5–10 minutes correspond to the fundamental mode of acoustic-gravity waves (AGW) near the Brunt–Väisälä period and were firstly revealed in VLF signals. Apart from these values, periods of 2–3 hours and possibly 1 week were also detected; the weekly periodicity is caused by anthropogenic influence on the VLF data. The problem with penetration of the ULF electric field to the ionosphere is investigated both within the dynamic simulation of the Maxwell equations and within the quasi-electrostatic approach. It is demonstrated that in the case of open field lines the results of dynamic simulations differ essentially from the quasi-electrostatic approach, which is not valid there. In the case of closed field lines, the simulation results are practically the same for both approaches and correspond to the data of measurements of plasma perturbations in the ionosphere. It is shown that the diurnal cycle is most clearly visible in the variations of the VLF amplitudes. Disturbances from various phenomena also appear in the VLF data series. One of the strongest geomagnetic storms during the analyzed time range was the event of St. Patrick's Day (March 17, 2015), which is not reflected in Japanese data because this event occurred at night for East Asia. The use of information entropy in the VLF signal processing was tested with the determination of the main features of information entropy. Variations in information entropy at different stations are discussed in detail. It has been found that information entropy shows maxima near sunrise and sunset. The location of these peaks relative to the moments of sunrise and sunset changes with the seasons that is probably connected with the solar terminator passage at the heights of the VLF signal propagation. A study of 109 earthquakes during 2014-2017 did not show a clear dependence of information entropy when using the superposed epoch analysis, although a slight decrease in information entropy was observed before a part of the earthquakes. The effect of solar flares on information entropy has been established, but this issue needs further study. We have developed a model describing the penetration into the ionosphere of a nonlinear AGW packet excited by a ground source. Complex modulation of the initial AGW includes acoustic waves with closed frequencies and random phases. The model is important for the interpretation of atmosphere–ionosphere coupling along with seismoionospheric one. We are working on the application of this model to the spectrum of the VLF waves in the WGEI and unified models of the atmosphere–ionosphere coupling due to AGW and electromagnetic field excited by the same source in the lower atmosphere. This model would be important for the understanding seismogenic and tropical cyclone influence on the ionosphere.

How to cite: Rapoport, Y., Reshetnyk, V., Grytsai, A., Liashchuk, A., Fedorenko, A., Hayakawa, M., Grimalsky, V., and Petrishchevskii, S.: Results of the analysis of VLF and ULF perturbations and modeling atmosphere-ionosphere coupling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10488, 2022.

EGU22-10961 | Presentations | NH4.1

Regional applicability of earthquake forecasts using geoelectric statistical moments: Application to Kakioka, Japan 

Hong-Jia Chen, Katsumi Hattori, and Chien-Chih Chen

Electromagnetic anomalies have become promising for short-term earthquake forecasting. One forecasting algorithm based on statistical moments of geoelectric data was developed and applied in Taiwan. The objective of our research was to investigate such a reliable, rigorously testable algorithm to issue earthquake forecasts. We tested the applicability of the forecasting algorithm and applied it to geoelectric data and an earthquake catalog in Kakioka, Japan with a long-term period of 26 years. We calculated the variance, skewness, and kurtosis of the geoelectric data each day, determined their anomalies, and then compared them with earthquake occurrences through the forecasting algorithm. We observed that the anomalies of variance, skewness, and kurtosis significantly precede earthquakes, suggesting that the geoelectric data distributions deviate from normal distributions before earthquakes. Furthermore, the forecasting algorithm can select robust optimal models and produce explicit forecasting probability for two-thirds of all experimental cases. Therefore, we concluded that the forecasting algorithm based on statistical moments of geoelectric data is universal and may contribute to short-term earthquake forecasting.

How to cite: Chen, H.-J., Hattori, K., and Chen, C.-C.: Regional applicability of earthquake forecasts using geoelectric statistical moments: Application to Kakioka, Japan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10961, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10961, 2022.

EGU22-11299 | Presentations | NH4.1

b-value and kinematic parameters from 3D focal mechanisms distributions in Southern California 

Andrea Carducci, Antonio Petruccelli, Angelo De Santis, Rita de Nardis, and Giusy Lavecchia

The frequency-magnitude relation of earthquakes, with particular attention to the b-value of Gutenberg-Richter law, is computed in Southern California. A three-dimensional grid is employed to sample relocated focal mechanisms and determine both the magnitude of completeness and the b-value for each node. Sampling radius and grid size are appropriately chosen accordingly to seismogenic source dimensions. The SCEC Community Fault Model is used for comparison of the main fault systems along with the calculated 3D distributions.

The b-values are compared to Aλ, a streamlined kinematic fault quantification, which does not use inversion processes since directly depends on individual rakes of focal mechanisms. Potential relationships between the two quantities are then computed through multiple regressions at increasing depth ranges: they may help to evaluate seismic hazard assessment in relating the frequency and size of earthquakes to kinematic features. The rheological transition from elastic to plastic conditions is computed, assuming different physical constraints, and its influence on b-value and Aλ is also analyzed. Among proposed linear, polynomial, and harmonic equations, the linear model is statistically valued as the most probable one to relate the two parameters at different depth ranges. b-values against Aλ results are implemented into a 3D figure, where point data are interpolated by “Lowess Smoothing” surfaces to visually check the constancy depending on depth.

How to cite: Carducci, A., Petruccelli, A., De Santis, A., de Nardis, R., and Lavecchia, G.: b-value and kinematic parameters from 3D focal mechanisms distributions in Southern California, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11299, 2022.

EGU22-11511 | Presentations | NH4.1 | Highlight

Earthquake forecasting probability by statistical correlations between low to moderate seismic events and variations in geochemical parameters 

Lisa Pierotti, Cristiano Fidani, Gianluca Facca, and Fabrizio Gherardi

Since late 2002, a network of six automatic monitoring stations is operating in Tuscany, Central Italy, to investigate possible geochemical precursors of earthquakes. The network is operated by the Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources (IGG), of the National Research Council of Italy (CNR), in collaboration and with the financial support of the Government of the Tuscany Region. The areas of highest seismic risk of the region, Garfagnana, Lunigiana, Mugello, Upper Tiber Valley and Mt. Amiata, are currently investigated. The monitoring stations are equipped with multi-parametric sensors to measure temperature, pH, electric conductivity, redox potential, dissolved CO2 and CH4 concentrations in spring waters. The elaboration of long-term time series allowed for an accurate definition of the geochemical background, and for the recognition of a number of geochemical anomalies in concomitance with the most energetic seismic events occurred during the monitoring period (Pierotti et al., 2017).

In an attempt to further exploit data from the geochemical network of Tuscany in a seismic risk reduction perspective, here we present a new statistical analysis that focuses on the possible correlation between low to moderate seismic events and variations in the chemical-physical parameters detected by the monitoring network. This approach relies on the estimate of a conditional probability for the forecast of earthquakes from the correlation coefficient between seismic events and signals variations (Fidani, 2021).

Seismic events (EQ) are classified according to a magnitude threshold, Mo. We set EQ = 0, if no seismic events were observed with M < Mo, and EQ = 1, if at least a seismic event was observed with M > Mo. Chemical-physical (CP) events were defined based on their appropriate amplitudes threshold Ao, being CP = 0 if the amplitude A < Ao, and CP = 1 if A > Ao. Digital time series were elaborated from data collected over the last 10 years, where EQs were declustered and CPs detrended for external influences. The couples of events with the same time differences TEQ – TCP, between EQs and CPs, were summed in a histogram. Then, a Pearson statistical correlation coefficient corr(EQ,CP) was obtained starting from the covariance definition.

A conditional probability for EQ forecasting is estimated starting from the correlation coefficient in an attempt to use data from CP network of Tuscany in a seismic risk reduction framework. The approach consists in an evaluation of EQ probability in a defined area, given a CP detection by the station in the same area. The conditional probability P(EQCP), when a correlation between EQs and CPs exists and time difference is that evidenced by the correlation, is increased by a term proportional to the correlation coefficient as

 

with respect to the unconditioned probability P(EQ) when a CP event is detected, where P(CP) is the unconditioned probability of CP.

 

 

Fidani, C. (2021). Front. Earth Sci. 9:673105.

Pierotti, L. et al. (2017). Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 98, 161-172.

 

How to cite: Pierotti, L., Fidani, C., Facca, G., and Gherardi, F.: Earthquake forecasting probability by statistical correlations between low to moderate seismic events and variations in geochemical parameters, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11511, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11511, 2022.

Some samples are given illustrating possible influences of the natural hazards those will occur in the future times for the seismic activities those occur at the present time in [1]. Those samples force to ask whether there exist operational connections originating from future time’s naturel events, NEs on the present time’s NEs or do not. The analytical basics orienting such cooperation are derived in here [2]-[3].

Both the past time’s NEs and the future time’s NEs are not exist at the present time’s NEs topology when we want to observe and measure all them at the same location in the present time as a matter of the event for the present time’s temporal and spatial metric or in a space-time differential displacement with other words [4]. This situation brings the fact on the absence and/or presence of NEs in a temporal topology as a principle about the occurrence of NEs in their specific manifolds [4]. The very simple example in below may be helpful to understand the fact:

Example 1: If you want to be a medical doctor in your future then you have to study and learn medical facts in an official way. Without doing this in your past times and present times you cannot earn the medical doctor degree in your future times.

Result 1: The future time’s NEs present cooperation in both the past and future time’s NEs.

Example 1 and connected result 1 illustrate the future time’s event of being medical doctor operates the past and present time’s event of learning medicine so the principle 1 in below brings the processes designing the cooperation among past, present, and future NEs:

Principle 1: There is either definitive and/or fuzzy cooperation among the NEs in the future time, pas time, and present time for NEs’ topology.

The retarded potential in gauge form is split into two parts: The first part is a part of Fourier transform given the future time’s NEs and the second part is a Fourier sinus transform. The first part involves the ingredients of future time’s NEs. The second part involves the ingredients of both NEs of past time and present time. The first part has the property as a forwarded potential. The second part fits to the properties as the events at the past and/or the present.

The principle 1 is checked during several earthquakes received in 1999-2004 [5]- [6] and some important results are shared in [1]. The present writer calls virtual earthquake (VEQ) future time’s earthquake activities cooperating with the past and/or present time’s seismic activities and presents the topological processes with their analytical extractions from the above-mentioned observations.

-------------------

1Sengor T, http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/ EGU2020/EGU2020-22589.pdf.

2Sengor T, Helsinki University of Tech., Electromagnetics Lab. Report 344, Nov. 2000, ISBN 951-22-5258-9, ISSN 1456-632X.

3Sengor T, Helsinki University of Tech., Electromagnetics Lab. Report 347, Dec. 2000, ISBN 951-22-5274-0, ISSN 1456-632X.

4Sengor T, Invited paper. doi:10.23919/URSI- ETS.2019.8931455

5Sengor T, http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2019/EGU2019-17127.pdf.

6Sengor T, Helsinki University of Tech., Electromagnetics Lab. Report 368, May. 2001, ISBN 951-22-5275-1, ISSN 1456-632X.

How to cite: Sengor, T.: Virtual Earthquakes Cooperating with Natural Hazards and Simultaneously Scheduled Seismic Activities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12275, 2022.

EGU22-12349 | Presentations | NH4.1 | Highlight

Multi-channel singular spectrum analysis of soil radon concentration, Japan: Relationship between soil radon flux and precipitation and the local seismic activity 

Katsumi Hattori, Kazuhide Nemoto, Haruna Kojina, Akitsugu Kitade, Shu kaneko, Chie Yoshino, Toru Mogi, Toshiharu Konishi, and Dimitar Ouzounov

Recently, there are many papers on electromagnetic pre-earthquake phenomena such as geomagnetic, ionospheric, and atmospheric anomalous changes. Ionospheric anomaly preceding large earthquakes is one of the most promising phenomena. Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model has been proposed to explain these phenomena. In this study, to evaluate the possibility of chemical channel of LAIC by observation, we have installed sensors for atmospheric electric field, atmospheric ion concentration, atmospheric Rn concentration, soil radon Rn concentration (SRC), and weather elements at Asahi station, Boso, Japan. Since the atmospheric electricity parameters are very much influenced by weather factors, it is necessary to remove these effects as much as possible. In this aim, we apply the MSSA (Multi-channel Singular Spectral Analysis) to remove these influences from the variation of GRC and estimate the soil Rn flux (SRF). We investigated the correlations (1) between SRF and precipitation and (2) between SRF and the local seismic activity around Asahi station. The preliminary results show that SRF was significantly increased by heavy precipitations of 20 mm or more in total for 2 hours. We proposed two types of models, a rainwater load model and a rainwater infiltration model, and it is appropriate for both models to work and (2) between SRF and local seismicity within an epicenter distance of 50 km from the station.

 

How to cite: Hattori, K., Nemoto, K., Kojina, H., Kitade, A., kaneko, S., Yoshino, C., Mogi, T., Konishi, T., and Ouzounov, D.: Multi-channel singular spectrum analysis of soil radon concentration, Japan: Relationship between soil radon flux and precipitation and the local seismic activity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12349, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12349, 2022.

EGU22-91 | Presentations | NP4.1

The role of teleconnections in complex climate network 

Ruby Saha

A complex network provides a robust framework to statistically investigate the topology of local and long-range connections, i.e., teleconnections in climate dynamics. The Climate network is constructed from meteorological data set using the linear Pearson correlation coefficient to measure similarity between two regions. Long-range teleconnections connect remote geographical sites and are crucial for climate networks. In this study, we discuss that during El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation onset, the teleconnections pattern changes according to the episode's strength. The long-range teleconnections are significant and responsible for the episodes' extremum ONI attained gradually after onset. We quantify the betweenness centrality measurement and note that the teleconnection distribution pattern and the betweenness measurements fit well.

How to cite: Saha, R.: The role of teleconnections in complex climate network, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-91, 2022.

EGU22-1831 | Presentations | NP4.1

Quantifying space-weather events using dynamical network analysis of Pc waves with global ground based magnetometers. 

Shahbaz Chaudhry, Sandra Chapman, Jesper Gjerloev, Ciaran Beggan, and Alan Thompson

Geomagnetic storms can impact technological systems, on the ground and in space, including damage to satellites and power blackouts. Their impact on ground systems such as power grids depends upon the spatio-temporal extent and time-evolution of the ground magnetic perturbation driven by the storm.

Pc waves are Alfven wave resonances of closed magnetospheric field lines and are ubiquitous in the inner magnetosphere. They have been extensively studied, in particular since  Pc wave power tracks the onset and evolution of geomagnetic storms.  We study the spatial and temporal evolution of Pc waves with a network analysis of the 100+ ground-based magnetometer stations collated by the SuperMAG collaboration with a single time-base and calibration. 

Network-based analysis of 1 min cadence SuperMAG magnetometer data has been applied to the dynamics of substorm current systems (Dods et al. JGR 2015, Orr et al. GRL 2019) and the magnetospheric response to IMF turnings (Dods et al. JGR 2017). It has the potential to capture the full spatio-temporal response with a few time-dependent network parameters. Now, with the availability of 1 sec data across the entire SuperMAG network we are able for the first time to apply network analysis globally to resolve both the spatial and temporal correlation patterns of the ground signature of Pc wave activity as a geomagnetic storm evolves. We focus on Pc2 (5-10s period) and Pc3 (10-45s period) wave bands. We obtain the time-varying global Pc wave dynamical network over individual space weather events.

To construct the networks we sample each magnetometer time series with a moving window in the time domain (20 times Pc period range) and then band-pass filter each magnetometer station time-series to obtain Pc2 and Pc3 waveforms. We then compute the cross correlation (TLXC) between all stations for each Pc band. Modelling is used to determine a threshold of significant TLXC above which a pair of stations are connected in the network. The TLXC as a function of lag is tested against a criterion for sinusoidal waveforms and then used to calculate the phase difference. The connections with a TLXC peak at non zero lag form a directed network which characterizes propagation or information flow. The connections at TLXC lag peak close to zero form am undirected network which characterizes a response which is globally instantaneously coherent.

We apply this network analysis to isolated geomagnetic storms. We find that the network connectivity does not simply track Pc wave power, it therefore contains additional information. Geographically short range connections are prevalent at all times, the storm onset marks a transition to a network which has both enhancement of geographically short-range connections, and the growth of geographically long range, global scale, connections extending spatially over a region exceeding 9h MLT. These global scale connections, indicating globally coherent Pc wave response are prevalent throughout the storm with considerable (within a few time windows) variation. The stations are not uniformly distributed spatially. Therefore, we distinguish between long range connections to avoid introducing spatial correlation. 

How to cite: Chaudhry, S., Chapman, S., Gjerloev, J., Beggan, C., and Thompson, A.: Quantifying space-weather events using dynamical network analysis of Pc waves with global ground based magnetometers., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1831, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1831, 2022.

EGU22-2014 | Presentations | NP4.1

OBS noise reduction using music information retrieval algorithms 

Zahra Zali, Theresa Rein, Frank Krüger, Matthias Ohrnberger, and Frank Scherbaum

Since the ocean covers 71% of the Earth’s surface, records from ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) are essential for investigating the whole Earth’s structure. However, data from ocean bottom recordings are commonly difficult to analyze due to the high noise level especially on the horizontal components. In addition, signals of seismological interest such as earthquake recordings at teleseismic distances, are masked by the oceanic noises. Therefore, noise reduction of OBS data is an important task required for the analysis of OBS records. Different approaches have been suggested in previous studies to remove noise from vertical components successfully, however, noise reduction on records of horizontal components remained problematic. Here we introduce a method, which is based on harmonic-percussive separation (HPS) algorithms used in Zali et al., (2021) that is able to separate long-lasting narrowband signals from broadband transients in the OBS records. In the context of OBS noise reduction using HPS algorithms, percussive components correspond to earthquake signals and harmonic components correspond to noise signals. OBS noises with narrowband horizontal structures in the short time Fourier transform (STFT) are readily distinguishable from transient, short-duration seismic events with vertical exhibitions in the STFT spectrogram. Through HPS algorithms we try to separate horizontal structures from vertical structures in the STFT spectrograms. Using this method we can reduce OBS noises from both vertical and horizontal components, retrieve clearer broadband earthquake waveforms and increase the earthquake signal to noise ratio. The applicability of the method is checked through tests on synthetic and real data.

How to cite: Zali, Z., Rein, T., Krüger, F., Ohrnberger, M., and Scherbaum, F.: OBS noise reduction using music information retrieval algorithms, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2014, 2022.

EGU22-2097 | Presentations | NP4.1 | Highlight

Medium- to long-term forecast of sea surface temperature using EEMD-STEOF-LSTM hybrid model 

Rixu Hao, Yuxin Zhao, Xiong Deng, Di Zhou, Dequan Yang, and Xin Jiang

Sea surface temperature (SST) is a vitally important variable of the global ocean, which can profoundly affect the climate and marine ecosystems. The field of forecasting oceanic variables has traditionally relied on numerical models, which effectively consider the discretization of the dynamical and physical oceanic equations. However, numerical models suffer from many limitations such as short timeliness, complex physical processes, and excessive calculation. Furthermore, existing machine learning has been proved to be able to capture spatial and temporal information independently without these limitations, but the previous research on multi-scale feature extraction and evolutionary forecast under spatiotemporal integration is still inadequate. To fill this gap, a multi-scale spatiotemporal forecast model is developed combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and spatiotemporal empirical orthogonal function (STEOF) with long short-term memory (LSTM), which is referred to as EEMD-STEOF-LSTM. Specifically, the EEMD is applied for adaptive multi-scale analysis; the STEOF is adopted to decompose the spatiotemporal processes of different scales into terms of a sum of products of spatiotemporal basis functions along with corresponding coefficients, which captures the evolution of spatial and temporal processes simultaneously; and the LSTM is employed to achieve medium- to long-term forecast of STEOF-derived spatiotemporal coefficients. A case study of the daily average of SST in the South China Sea shows that the proposed hybrid EEMD-STEOF-LSTM model consistently outperforms the optimal climatic normal (OCN), STEOF, and STEOF-LSTM, which can accurately forecast the characteristics of oceanic eddies. Statistical analysis of the case study demonstrates that this model has great potential for practical applications in medium- to long-term forecast of oceanic variables.

How to cite: Hao, R., Zhao, Y., Deng, X., Zhou, D., Yang, D., and Jiang, X.: Medium- to long-term forecast of sea surface temperature using EEMD-STEOF-LSTM hybrid model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2097, 2022.

In this presentation, we introduce the IMFogram method ( pronounced like "infogram" ), which is a new, fast, local, and reliable time-frequency representation (TFR) method for nonstationary signals. This technique is based on the Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) decomposition produced by a decomposition method, like the Empirical Mode Decomposition-based techniques, Iterative Filtering-based algorithms, or any equivalent method developed so far. We present the mathematical properties of the IMFogram, and show the proof that this method is a generalization of the Spectrogram. We conclude the presentation with some applications, as well as a comparison of its performance with other existing TFR techniques.

How to cite: Cicone, A.: The IMFogram: a new time-frequency representation algorithm for nonstationary signals, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2560, 2022.

EGU22-2922 | Presentations | NP4.1

Constraining the uncertainty in CO2 seasonal cycle metrics by residual bootstrapping. 

Theertha Kariyathan, Wouter Peters, Julia Marshall, Ana Bastos, and Markus Reichstein

The analysis of long, high-quality time series of atmospheric greenhouse gas measurements helps to quantify their seasonal to interannual variations and impact on global climate. These discrete measurement records contain, however, gaps and at times noisy data, influenced by local fluxes or synoptic scale events, hence appropriate filtering and curve-fitting techniques are often used to smooth and gap-fill the atmospheric time series. Previous studies have shown that there is an inherent uncertainty associated with curve-fitting processes which introduces biases based on the choice of mathematical method used for data processing and can lead to scientific misinterpretation of the signal. Further the uncertainties in curve-fitting can be propagated onto the metrics estimated from the fitted curve that could significantly influence the quantification of the metrics and their interpretations. In this context we present a novel-methodology for constraining the uncertainty arising from fitting a smooth curve to the CO2 dry air mole fraction time-series, and propagate this uncertainty onto commonly used metrics to study the seasonal cycle of CO2. We generate an ensemble of fifitted curves from the data using residual bootstrap sampling with loess-fitted residuals, that is representative of the inherent uncertainty in applying the curve-fitting method to the discrete data. The spread of the selected CO2 seasonal cycle metrics across bootstrap time-series provides an estimate of the inherent uncertainty in curve fitting to the discrete data. Further we show that the approach can be extended to other curve-fitting methods by generating multiple bootstrap samples by resampling residuals obtained from processing the data using the widely used CCGCRV filtering method by the atmospheric greenhouse gas measurement community.

How to cite: Kariyathan, T., Peters, W., Marshall, J., Bastos, A., and Reichstein, M.: Constraining the uncertainty in CO2 seasonal cycle metrics by residual bootstrapping., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2922, 2022.

EGU22-4795 | Presentations | NP4.1

Robust Causal Inference for Irregularly Sampled Time Series: Applications in Climate and Paleoclimate Data Analysis 

Aditi Kathpalia, Pouya Manshour, and Milan Paluš

To predict and determine the major drivers of climate has become even more important now as climate change poses a big challenge to humankind and our planet earth. Different studies employ either correlation, causality methods or modelling approaches to study the interaction between climate and climate forcing variables (anthropogenic or natural). This includes the study of interaction between global surface temperatures and CO2; rainfall in different locations and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. The results produced by different studies have been found to be different and debatable, presenting an ambiguous situation. In this work, we develop and apply a novel robust causality estimation technique for time-series data (to estimate causal influence between given observables), that can help to resolve the ambiguity. The discrepancy in existing results arises due to challenges with the acquired data and limitations of the causal inference/ modelling approaches. Our novel approach combines the use of a recently proposed causality method, Compression-Complexity Causality (CCC) [1], and Ordinal/ Permutation pattern-based coding [2]. CCC estimates have been shown to be robust for bivariate systems with low temporal resolution, missing samples, long-term memory and finite length data [1]. The use of ordinal patterns helps to extend bivariate CCC to the multivariate case by capturing the multidimensional dynamics of the given variables’ systems in the symbolic temporal sequence of a single variable. This methodology is tested on dynamical systems data which are short in length and have been corrupted with missing samples or subsampled to different levels. The superior performance of ‘Permutation CCC’ on such data relative to other causality estimation methods, strengthens our trust in the method. We apply the method to study the interaction between CO2-temperature recordings on three different time scales, CH4-temperature on the paleoclimate scale, ENSO-South Asian monsoon on monthly and yearly time scales, North Atlantic Oscillation-surface temperature on daily and monthly time scales. These datasets are either short in length, have been sampled irregularly, have missing samples or have a combination of the above factors. Our results are interesting, which validate some existing studies while contradicting others. In addition, the development of the novel permutation-CCC approach opens the possibility of its application for making useful inferences on other challenging climate datasets.


This study is supported by the Czech Science Foundation, Project No.~GA19-16066S and by the Czech Academy of Sciences, Praemium Academiae awarded to M. Paluš.


References:
[1] Kathpalia, A., & Nagaraj, N. (2019). Data-based intervention approach for Complexity-Causality measure. PeerJ Computer Science, 5, e196.
[2] Bandt, C., & Pompe, B. (2002). Permutation entropy: a natural complexity measure for time series. Physical review letters, 88(17), 174102.

How to cite: Kathpalia, A., Manshour, P., and Paluš, M.: Robust Causal Inference for Irregularly Sampled Time Series: Applications in Climate and Paleoclimate Data Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4795, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4795, 2022.

Rainfall time series prediction is crucial for geoscientific system monitoring, but it is challenging and complex due to the extreme variability of rainfall. In order to improve prediction accuracy, a hybrid deep learning model (VMD-RNN) was proposed. In this study, variational mode decomposition (VMD) is first applied to decompose the original rainfall time series into several sub-sequences according to the frequency domain. Following that, different recurrent neural network (RNN) models are utilized to predict individual sub-sequences and the final prediction is reconstructed by summing the prediction results of sub-sequences. These RNN models are long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) and bidirectional GRU (BiGRU), which are optimal for sequence prediction. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the predicted performance is then used to select the ideal RNN model for each sub-sequences. In addition to RMSE, the framework of universal multifractal (UM) is also introduced to evaluate prediction performances, which enables to characterize the extreme variability of predicted rainfall time series. The study employed two rainfall datasets from 2001 to 2020 in Paris, with daily and hourly resolutions. The results show that, when compared to directly predicting the original time series, the proposed hybrid VMD-RNN model improves prediction of high or extreme values for the daily dataset, but does not significantly enhance the prediction of zero or low values. Additionally, the VMD-RNN model also outperforms existing deep learning models without decomposition on the hourly dataset when evaluated with the help of RMSE, while universal multifractal analyses point out limitations. 

How to cite: Zhou, H., Schertzer, D., and Tchiguirinskaia, I.: Combining variational mode decomposition and recurrent neural network to predict rainfall time series and evaluating prediction performance by universal multifractals, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6014, 2022.

EGU22-6281 | Presentations | NP4.1

Application of information theoretical measures for improved machine learning modelling of the outer radiation belt 

Constantinos Papadimitriou, Georgios Balasis, Ioannis A. Daglis, and Simon Wing

In the past ten years Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and other machine learning methods have been used in a wide range of models and predictive systems, to capture and even predict the onset and evolution of various types of phenomena. These applications typically require large datasets, composed of many variables and parameters, the number of which can often make the analysis cumbersome and prohibitively time consuming, especially when the interplay of all these parameters is taken into consideration. Thankfully, Information-Theoretical measures can be used to not only reduce the dimensionality of the input space of such a system, but also improve its efficiency. In this work, we present such a case, where differential electron fluxes from the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) on board the Van Allen Probes satellites are modelled by a simple ANN, using solar wind parameters and geomagnetic activity indices as inputs, and illustrate how the proper use of Information Theory measures can improve the efficiency of the model by minimizing the number of input parameters and shifting them with respect to time, to their proper time-lagged versions.

How to cite: Papadimitriou, C., Balasis, G., Daglis, I. A., and Wing, S.: Application of information theoretical measures for improved machine learning modelling of the outer radiation belt, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6281, 2022.

EGU22-7256 | Presentations | NP4.1

Identifying patterns of teleconnections, a curvature-based network analysis 

Jakob Schlör, Felix M. Strnad, Christian Fröhlich, and Bedartha Goswami

Representing spatio-temporal climate variables as complex networks allows uncovering nontrivial structure in the data. Although various tools for detecting communities in climate networks have been used to group nodes (spatial locations) with similar climatic conditions, we are often interested in identifying important links between communities. Of particular interest are methods to detect teleconnections, i.e. links over large spatial distances mitigated by atmospheric processes.

We propose to use a recently developed network measure based on Ricci-curvature to visualize teleconnections in climate networks. Ricci-curvature allows to distinguish between- and within-community links in networks. Applied to networks constructed from surface temperature anomalies we show that Ricci-curvature separates spatial scales. We use Ricci-curvature to study differences in global teleconnection patterns of different types of El Niño events, namely the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types. Our method reveals a global picture of teleconnection patterns, showing confinement of teleconnections to the tropics under EP conditions but showing teleconnections to the tropics, Northern and Southern Hemisphere under CP conditions. The obtained teleconnections corroborate previously reported impacts of EP and CP.
Our results suggest that Ricci-curvature is a promising visual-analytics-tool to study the topology of climate systems with potential applications across observational and model data.

How to cite: Schlör, J., Strnad, F. M., Fröhlich, C., and Goswami, B.: Identifying patterns of teleconnections, a curvature-based network analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7256, 2022.

EGU22-8399 | Presentations | NP4.1

Using neural networks to detect coastal hydrodynamic phenomena in high-resolution tide gauge data 

Felix Soltau, Sebastian Niehüser, and Jürgen Jensen

Tide gauges are exposed to various kinds of influences that are able to affect water level measurements significantly and lead to time series containing different phenomena and artefacts. These influences can be natural or anthropogenic, while both lead to actual changes of the water level. Opposed to that, technical malfunction of measuring devices as another kind of influence causes non-physical water level data. Both actual and non-physical data need to be detected and classified consistently, and possibly corrected to enable the supply of adequate water level information. However, there is no automatically working detection algorithm yet. Only obvious or frequent technical malfunctions like gaps can be detected automatically but have to be corrected manually by trained staff. Consequently, there is no consistently defined data pre-processing before, for example, statistical analyses are performed or water level information for navigation is passed on.

In the research project DePArT*, we focus on detecting natural phenomena like standing waves, meteotsunamis, or inland flood events as well as anthropogenic artefacts like operating storm surge barriers and sluices in water level time series containing data every minute. Therefore, we train artificial neural networks (ANNs) using water level sequences of phenomena and artefacts as well as redundant data to recognize them in other data sets. We use convolutional neural networks (CNNs) as they already have been successfully conducted in, for example, object detection or speech and language processing (Gu et al., 2018). However, CNNs need to be trained with high numbers of sample sequences. Hence, as a next step the idea is to synthesize rarely observed phenomena and artefacts to gain enough training data. The trained CNNs can then be used to detect unnoticed phenomena and artefacts in past and recent time series. Depending on sequence characteristics and the results of synthesizing, we will possibly be able to detect certain events as they occur and therefore provide pre-checked water level information in real time.

In a later stage of this study, we will implement the developed algorithms in an operational test mode while cooperating closely with the officials to benefit from the mutual feedback. In this way, the study contributes to a future consistent pre-processing and helps to increase the quality of water level data. Moreover, the results are able to reduce uncertainties from the measuring process and improve further calculations based on these data.

* DePArT (Detektion von küstenhydrologischen Phänomenen und Artefakten in minütlichen Tidepegeldaten; engl. Detection of coastal hydrological phenomena and artefacts in minute-by-minute tide gauge data) is a research project, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the project management of Projektträger Jülich PTJ under the grant number 03KIS133.

Gu, Wang, Kuen, Ma, Shahroudy, Shuai, Liu, Wang, Wang, Cai, Chen (2018): Recent advances in convolutional neural networks. In: Pattern Recognition, Vol. 77, Pages 354–377. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patcog.2017.10.013

How to cite: Soltau, F., Niehüser, S., and Jensen, J.: Using neural networks to detect coastal hydrodynamic phenomena in high-resolution tide gauge data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8399, 2022.

EGU22-8899 | Presentations | NP4.1

Body wave extraction by using sparsity-promoting time-frequency filtering 

Bahare Imanibadrbani, Hamzeh Mohammadigheymasi, Ahmad Sadidkhouy, Rui Fernandes, Ali Gholami, and Martin Schimmel

Different phases of seismic waves generated by earthquakes carry considerable information about the subsurface structures as they propagate within the earth. Depending on the scope and objective of an investigation, various types of seismic phases are studied. Studying surface waves image shallow and large-scale subsurface features, while body waves provide high-resolution images at higher depths, which is otherwise impossible to be resolved by surface waves. The most challenging aspect of studying body waves is extracting low-amplitude P and S phases predominantly masked by high amplitude and low attenuation surface waves overlapping in time and frequency. Although body waves generally contain higher frequencies than surface waves, the overlapping frequency spectrum of body and surface waves limits the application of elementary signal processing methods such as conventional filtering. Advanced signal processing tools are required to work around this problem. Recently the Sparsity-Promoting Time-Frequency Filtering (SP-TFF) method was developed as a signal processing tool for discriminating between different phases of seismic waves based on their high-resolution polarization information in the Time-Frequency (TF)-domain (Mohammadigheymasi et al., 2022). The SP-TFF extracts different phases of seismic waves by incorporating this information and utilizing a combination of amplitude, directivity, and rectilinearity filters. This study implements SP-TFF by properly defining a filter combination set for specific extraction of body waves masked by high-amplitude surface waves. Synthetic and real data examinations for the source mechanism of the  Mw=7.5 earthquake that occurred in November 2021 in Northern Peru and recorded by 58 stations of the United States National Seismic Network (USNSN) is conducted. The results show the remarkable performance of SP-TFF extracting P and SV phases on the vertical and radial components and SH phase on the transverse component masked by high amplitude Rayleigh and Love waves, respectively. A range of S/N levels is tested, indicating the algorithm’s robustness at different noise levels. This research contributes to the FCT-funded SHAZAM (Ref. PTDC/CTA-GEO/31475/2017) and IDL (Ref. FCT/UIDB/50019/2020) projects. It also uses computational resources provided by C4G (Collaboratory for Geosciences) (Ref. PINFRA/22151/2016).

REFERENCE
Mohammadigheymasi, H., P. Crocker, M. Fathi, E. Almeida, G. Silveira, A. Gholami, and M. Schimmel, 2022, Sparsity-promoting approach to polarization analysis of seismic signals in the time-frequency domain: IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 1–1.

How to cite: Imanibadrbani, B., Mohammadigheymasi, H., Sadidkhouy, A., Fernandes, R., Gholami, A., and Schimmel, M.: Body wave extraction by using sparsity-promoting time-frequency filtering, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8899, 2022.

EGU22-9626 | Presentations | NP4.1

A Recurrence Flow based Approach to Attractor Reconstruction 

Tobias Braun, K. Hauke Kraemer, and Norbert Marwan

In the study of nonlinear observational time series, reconstructing the system’s state space represents the basis for many widely-used analyses. From the perspective of dynamical system’s theory, Taken’s theorem states that under benign conditions, the reconstructed state space preserves the most fundamental properties of the real, unknown system’s attractor. Through many applications, time delay embedding (TDE) has established itself as the most popular approach for state space reconstruction1. However, standard TDE cannot account for multiscale properties of the system and many of the more sophisticated approaches either require heuristic choice for a high number of parameters, fail when the signals are corrupted by noise or obstruct analysis due to their very high complexity.

We present a novel semi-automated, recurrence based method for the problem of attractor reconstruction. The proposed method is based on recurrence plots (RPs), a computationally simple yet effective 2D-representation of a univariate time series. In a recent study, the quantification of RPs has been extended by transferring the well-known box-counting algorithm to recurrence analysis2. We build on this novel formalism by introducing another box-counting measure that was originally put forward by B. Mandelbrot, namely succolarity3. Succolarity quantifies how well a fluid can permeate a binary texture4. We employ this measure by flooding a RP with a (fictional) fluid along its diagonals and computing succolarity as a measure of diagonal flow through the RP. Since a non-optimal choice of embedding parameters impedes the formation of diagonal lines in the RP and generally results in spurious patterns that block the fluid, the attractor reconstruction problem can be formulated as a maximization of diagonal recurrence flow.

The proposed state space reconstruction algorithm allows for non-uniform embedding delays to account for multiscale dynamics. It is conceptually and computationally simple and (nearly) parameter-free. Even in presence of moderate to high noise intensity, reliable results are obtained. We compare the method’s performance to existing techniques and showcase its effectiveness in applications to paradigmatic examples and nonlinear geoscientific time series.

 

References:

1 Packard, N. H., Crutchfield, J. P., Farmer, J. D., & Shaw, R. S. (1980). Geometry from a time series. Physical review letters, 45(9), 712.

2 Braun, T., Unni, V. R., Sujith, R. I., Kurths, J., & Marwan, N. (2021). Detection of dynamical regime transitions with lacunarity as a multiscale recurrence quantification measure. Nonlinear Dynamics, 1-19.

3 Mandelbrot, B. B. (1982). The fractal geometry of nature (Vol. 1). New York: WH freeman.

4 de Melo, R. H., & Conci, A. (2013). How succolarity could be used as another fractal measure in image analysis. Telecommunication Systems, 52(3), 1643-1655.

How to cite: Braun, T., Kraemer, K. H., and Marwan, N.: A Recurrence Flow based Approach to Attractor Reconstruction, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9626, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9626, 2022.

EGU22-11064 | Presentations | NP4.1

The Objective Deformation Component of a Velocity Field 

Bálint Kaszás, Tiemo Pedergnana, and George Haller

According to a fundamental axiom of continuum mechanics, material response should be objective, i.e., indifferent to the observer. In the context of geophysical fluid dynamics, fluid-transporting vortices must satisfy this axiom and hence different observers should come to the same conclusion about the location and size of these vortices. As a consequence, only objectively defined extraction methods can provide reliable results for material vortices.

As velocity fields are inherently non-objective, they render most Eulerian flow-feature detection non-objective. To resolve this issue,  we discuss a general decomposition of a velocity field into an objective deformation component and a rigid-body component. We obtain this decomposition as a solution of a physically motivated extremum problem for the closest rigid-body velocity of a general velocity field.

This extremum problem turns out to have a unique,  physically interpretable,  closed-form solution. Subtracting this solution from the velocity field then gives an objective deformation velocity field that is also physically observable. As a consequence, all common Eulerian feature detection schemes, as well as the momentum, energy, vorticity, enstrophy, and helicity of the flow, become objective when computed from the deformation velocity component. We illustrate the use of this deformation velocity field on several velocity data sets.

How to cite: Kaszás, B., Pedergnana, T., and Haller, G.: The Objective Deformation Component of a Velocity Field, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11064, 2022.

EGU22-11118 | Presentations | NP4.1

Explainable community detection of extreme rainfall events using the tangles algorithmic framework 

Merle Kammer, Felix Strnad, and Bedartha Goswami

Climate networks have helped to uncover complex structures in climatic observables from large time series data sets. For instance, climate networks were used to reduce rainfall data to relevant patterns that can be linked to geophysical processes. However, the identification of regions that show similar behavior with respect to the timing and spatial distribution of extreme rainfall events (EREs) remains challenging. 
To address this, we apply a recently developed algorithmic framework based on tangles [1] to discover community structures in the spatial distribution of EREs and to obtain inherently interpretable communities as an output. First, we construct a climate network using time-delayed event synchronization and create a collection of cuts (bipartitions) from the EREs data. By using these cuts, the tangles algorithmic framework allows us to both exploit the climate network structure and incorporate prior knowledge from the data. Applying tangles enables us to create a hierarchical tree representation of communities including the likelihood that spatial locations belong to a community. Each tree layer can be associated to an underlying cut, thus making the division of different communities transparent. 
Applied to global precipitation data, we show that tangles is a promising tool to quantify community structures and to reveal underlying geophysical processes leading to these structures.

 

[1] S. Klepper, C. Elbracht, D. Fioravanti,  J. Kneip, L. Rendsburg, M. Teegen, and U. von Luxburg. Clustering with Tangles: Algorithmic Framework and Theoretical Guarantees. CoRR, abs/2006.14444v2, 2021. URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.14444v2.

How to cite: Kammer, M., Strnad, F., and Goswami, B.: Explainable community detection of extreme rainfall events using the tangles algorithmic framework, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11118, 2022.

EGU22-11667 | Presentations | NP4.1

Spurious Behaviour in Networks from Spatio-temporal Data 

Moritz Haas, Bedartha Goswami, and Ulrike von Luxburg

Network-based analyses of dynamical systems have become increasingly popular in climate science. Instead of focussing on the chaotic systems aspect, we come from a statistical perspective and highlight the often ignored fact that the calculated correlation values are only empirical estimates. We find that already the uncertainty stemming from the estimation procedure has major impact on network characteristics. Using isotropic random fields on the sphere, we observe spurious behaviour in commonly constructed networks from finite samples. When the data has locally coherent correlation structure, even spurious link-bundle teleconnections have to be expected. We reevaluate the outcome and robustness of existing studies based on their design choices and null hypotheses.

How to cite: Haas, M., Goswami, B., and von Luxburg, U.: Spurious Behaviour in Networks from Spatio-temporal Data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11667, 2022.

EGU22-12351 | Presentations | NP4.1

VAE4OBS: Denoising ocean bottom seismograms using variational autoencoders 

Maria Tsekhmistrenko, Ana Ferreira, Kasra Hosseini, and Thomas Kitching

Data from ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS) are inherently more challenging than their land counterpart because of their noisy environment. Primary and secondary microseismic noises corrupt the recorded time series. Additionally, anthropogenic (e.g., ships) and animal noise (e.g., Whales) contribute to a complex noise that can make it challenging to use traditional filtering methods (e.g., broadband or Gabor filters) to clean and extract information from these seismograms. 

OBS deployments are laborious, expensive, and time-consuming. The data of these deployments are crucial in investigating and covering the "blind spots" where there is a lack of station coverage. It, therefore, becomes vital to remove the noise and retrieve earthquake signals recorded on these seismograms.

We propose analysing and processing such unique and challenging data with Machine Learning (ML), particularly Deep Learning (DL) techniques, where conventional methods fail. We present a variational autoencoder (VAE) architecture to denoise seismic waveforms with the aim to extract more information than previously possible. We argue that, compared to other fields, seismology is well-posed to use ML and DL techniques thanks to massive datasets recorded by seismograms. 

In the first step, we use synthetic seismograms (generated with Instaseis) and white noise to train a deep neural network. We vary the signal-to-noise ratio during training. Such synthetic datasets have two advantages. First, we know the signal and noise (as we have injected the noise ourselves). Second, we can generate large training and validation datasets, one of the prerequisites for high-quality DL models.

Next, we increased the complexity of input data by adding real noise sampled from land and OBS to the synthetic seismograms. Finally, we apply the trained model to real OBS data recorded during the RHUM-RUM experiment.

We present the workflow, the neural network architecture, our training strategy, and the usefulness of our trained models compared to traditional methods.

How to cite: Tsekhmistrenko, M., Ferreira, A., Hosseini, K., and Kitching, T.: VAE4OBS: Denoising ocean bottom seismograms using variational autoencoders, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12351, 2022.

EGU22-13053 | Presentations | NP4.1

Causal Diagnostics for Observations - Experiments with the L63 system 

Nachiketa Chakraborty and Javier Amezcua

Study of cause and effect relationships – causality - is central to identifying mechanisms that cause the phenomena we observe. And in non-linear, dynamical systems, we wish to understand these mechanisms unfolding over time. In areas within physical sciences like geosciences, astrophysics, etc. there are numerous competing causes that drive the system in complicated ways that are hard to disentangle. Hence, it is important to demonstrate how causal attribution works with relatively simpler systems where we have a physical intuition. Furthermore, in earth and atmospheric sciences or meteorology, we have a plethora of observations that are used in both understanding the underlying science beneath the phenomena as well as forecasting. However in order to do this, optimally combining the models (theoretical/numerical) with the observations through data assimilation is a challenging, computationally intensive task. Therefore, understanding the impact of observations and the required cadence is very useful. Here, we present experiments in causal inference and attribution with the Lorenz 63 system – a system studied for a long time. We first test the causal relations between the variables characterising the model. And then we simulate observations using perturbed versions of the model to test the impact of the cadence of observations of each combination of the 3 variables.

How to cite: Chakraborty, N. and Amezcua, J.: Causal Diagnostics for Observations - Experiments with the L63 system, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13053, 2022.

An accurate understanding of dynamical similarities and dissimilarities in geomagnetic variability between quiet and disturbed periods has the potential to vastly improve Space Weather diagnosis. During the last years, several approaches rooted in dynamical system theory have demonstrated their great potentials for characterizing the instantaneous level of complexity in geomagnetic activity and solar wind variations, and for revealing indications of intermittent large-scale coupling and generalized synchronization phenomena in the Earth’s electromagnetic environment. In this work, we focus on two complementary approaches based on the concept of recurrences in phase space, both of which quantify subtle geometric properties of the phase space trajectory instead of taking an explicit temporal variability perspective. We first quantify the local (instantaneous) and global fractal dimensions and associated local stability properties of a suite of low (SYM-H, ASY-H) and high latitude (AE, AL, AU) geomagnetic indices and discuss similarities and dissimilarities of the obtained patterns for one year of observations during a solar activity maximum. Subsequently, we proceed with studying bivariate extensions of both approaches, and demonstrate their capability of tracing different levels of interdependency between low and high latitude geomagnetic variability during periods of magnetospheric quiescence and along with perturbations associated with geomagnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms, respectively. Ultimately, we investigate the effect of time scale on the level of dynamical organization of fluctuations by studying iterative reconstructions of the index values based on intrinsic mode functions obtained from univariate and multivariate versions of empirical mode decomposition. Our results open new perspectives on the nonlinear dynamics and (likely intermittent) mutual entanglement of different parts of the geospace electromagnetic environment, including the equatorial and westward auroral electrojets, in dependence of the overall state of the geospace system affected by temporary variations of the solar wind forcing. In addition, they contribute to a better understanding of the potentials and limitations of two contemporary approaches of nonlinear time series analysis in the field of space physics.

How to cite: Donner, R., Alberti, T., and Faranda, D.: Instantaneous fractal dimensions and stability properties of geomagnetic indices based on recurrence networks and extreme value theory, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13342, 2022.

SM4 – Deformation, Faulting, and Earthquake Processes (incl. seismotectonics, geodynamics, earthquake source physics)

EGU22-1495 | Presentations | SM4.1

The 2017 Ischia Earthquake (Southern Italy): Source Mechanism and Rupture Model From the inversion of a Near-Source Strong Motion Record 

Sahar Nazeri, Aldo Zollo, Guido Maria Adinolfi, Ortensia Amoroso, and Matteo Picozzi

With the aim to investigate the rupture complexity and the radiated wave field of 2017, Mw 3.9, Ischia earthquake, south-west of Naples (Italy), we used finite-fault modeling to invert the near-source (<1-km epicentral distance) horizontal component velocity records of the accelerometric station (IOCA)
and searched for the best-fit kinematic rupture parameters. This analysis showed that the rupture nucleated at about 600 m west of IOCA and 1.1-km depth, along a 1 km, NW-SE striking fault (i.e., thrust with right-lateral component), with a rupture velocity of about 0.7 km/s. The retrieved rupture model coupled with multipath reverberations effects related to a thin, low-velocity near-surface volcanic sedimentary layer, well explains the observed long ground motion duration and the large amplitudes recorded all over the island. Finally, the apparent source time function (STF), obtained from inverse modeling using a theoretical Green’ function (GF), is validated by implementing an empirical GF (EGF) analysis.

How to cite: Nazeri, S., Zollo, A., Maria Adinolfi, G., Amoroso, O., and Picozzi, M.: The 2017 Ischia Earthquake (Southern Italy): Source Mechanism and Rupture Model From the inversion of a Near-Source Strong Motion Record, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1495, 2022.

EGU22-2184 | Presentations | SM4.1

Breakdown energy scaling in a self-similar earthquake model 

David Kammer, Chun-Yu Ke, and Gregory McLaskey

During an earthquake, the elastic energy released from the Earth’s crust is partially radiated as seismic waves and partially dissipated along the tectonic fault. The dissipated energy can be divided into heat, which is produced by friction and other nonlinear mechanisms, and breakdown energy, which is associated with the dynamic weakening process of the fault. This breakdown energy is a key fault property as it directly affects nucleation, propagation and arrest of earthquake ruptures, and, hence, may control the size of an earthquake. However, the breakdown energy is difficult to measure directly on the fault and, therefore, it is routinely inferred from seismological measurements. A common observation is that the inferred breakdown energy, if positive-valued, scales with relative slip along the fault. In other words, larger earthquakes appear to dissipate more energy per unit rupture area through the weakening process, which typically occurs over very short slip distances. This would suggest that the earthquake rupture contains information about the final size of the earthquake starting from a very early stage of the earthquake, which is reasonably disputed in literature. In addition, the inferred breakdown energy is frequently observed to be negative-valued, which would violate thermodynamics. Therefore, we note that our current understanding of the seismologically inferred breakdown energy remains inconsistent. Here, we introduce a self-similar earthquake model that presents a similar scaling of the inferred breakdown energy despite constant and scale-independent fault properties (including the locally dissipated energy). We will show that the observed scaling is the result of a scale-invariant stress drop overshoot that distorts the global energy balance used for determining the breakdown energy. Therefore, our results suggest that the overall rupture mode – whether it is a crack-like or a pulse-like rupture – is a crucial factor for the inferred breakdown energy. Consequently, a pulse-like rupture, which is typically associated to stress drop undershoot, may explain the observed negative breakdown-energy values.

How to cite: Kammer, D., Ke, C.-Y., and McLaskey, G.: Breakdown energy scaling in a self-similar earthquake model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2184, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2184, 2022.

EGU22-2661 | Presentations | SM4.1

Kilometer-wide volumetric deformation of the shallow crust associated with strike-slip continental earthquakes and its relation with coseismic shallow slip deficits 

Solène L. Antoine, Kang Wang, Yann Klinger, Roland Bürgmann, and Arthur Delorme

Surface deformation associated with continental earthquakes separates into a localized component occurring on faults, and distributed deformation affecting the surrounding medium, referred to as off-fault deformation (OFD). This OFD includes both displacement discrete on secondary faults and cracks, and more diffuse deformation affecting the bulk volume of the crust. Although the deformation occurring on faults and cracks can be observed and measured in the field, diffuse deformation is more challenging to detect because it generates kilometer-scale continuous gradients of displacement without any visible disruption of the ground surface. Consequently, surface displacements measured in the field generally underestimate the total surface displacement of the earthquakes. Moreover, results from inversions of geodetic and/or seismic data suggest that, for many earthquakes, the amount of coseismic slip occurring at depth (3-7 km) is larger than what occurs in the shallower part (<3 km). This is referred to as the shallow slip deficit (SSD). So far, because diffuse deformation is not explicitly considered in earthquake displacement budgets, and because the origin of the SSD remains debated, it is difficult to directly compare directly surface observations with modeling results. In this study, we use a set of complementary geodetic data (InSAR, GPS, high-resolution optical data) to jointly invert for the coseismic slip of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence in Southern California (Mw6.4 and 7.1). To reproduce the rupture complexity observed in the high-resolution optical data, we use a complex fault model with increased resolution in the uppermost crust. We pay special attention that our preferred model fits both with the fault slip distribution observed at the surface in the high-resolution optical imagery data, and regional-scale displacement data from InSAR and GPS. In our best model, we estimate a 30% SSD in the upper 3 km. This value of 30% matches the amount of diffuse deformation we measured around the ruptures at the surface directly on the high-resolution optical data. From these observations, we propose that SSD is entirely balanced by the volumetric diffuse deformation, and more generally, that diffuse surface deformation is proportional to SSD. Finally, based on a compilation of published data, we show that SSD and diffuse deformation are both inversely proportional to the earthquake magnitude. Indeed, for large magnitude earthquakes, SSD and diffuse deformation are close to 0%. Conversely, for earthquakes that do not break the surface, diffuse deformation might be close to 100%. However, in this latter case, it still needs to be determined whether the diffuse deformation is only elastic, or not.

How to cite: Antoine, S. L., Wang, K., Klinger, Y., Bürgmann, R., and Delorme, A.: Kilometer-wide volumetric deformation of the shallow crust associated with strike-slip continental earthquakes and its relation with coseismic shallow slip deficits, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2661, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2661, 2022.

EGU22-4302 | Presentations | SM4.1

Source Parameters for the Community Stress Drop Validation Study 

Kilian B. Kemna and Rebecca M. Harrington
The community-led stress drop validation study initiated in early 2021 aims at understanding and resolving differences in stress drop measurements using a consistent dataset of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. The dataset consists of 13,000 earthquakes with phase arrivals at up to 107 stations in the week following the M7.1 mainshock on 2019-07-04. 
 
Stress drop values are commonly estimated by fitting theoretical source models to direct phase (P- or S-wave) or coda wave spectra. In this work, we contribute to the community-led study using different approaches based on earthquake spectra and an alternative approach based on stopping phases to estimate fault dimension and rupture velocity (the main parameters modulating stress drop).  The Ridgecrest dataset offers a unique opportunity to explore the applicability, potential benefits, and limitations of each method due to a wide range of earthquake magnitudes, variety of seismic instruments, and extensive body of supporting research related to the sequence. Furthermore, the sequence enables the comparison between different methods to identify consistencies and differences between estimates using different methodologies. 
 
We will present stress drop estimates using commonly used frequency-based methods, such as single-spectrum and spectral-ratio fitting. We also further examine the validity of the theoretical assumptions made for each method using anstopping-phase based estimates of rupture velocity.  First results show clear detections of stopping phases for a subset of earthquakes that imply stress drop values ranging between 0.1 - 10 MPa. The range agrees with the results from the frequency-based methods, and estimates from different methods show similar patterns. The first results also suggest significant deviation of specific individual earthquake estimates, which will also be explored by a detailed comparison of methods.

How to cite: Kemna, K. B. and Harrington, R. M.: Source Parameters for the Community Stress Drop Validation Study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4302, 2022.

EGU22-5976 | Presentations | SM4.1

Empirical evidence of frequency-dependent directivity effects from small-to-moderate normal fault earthquakes in Central Italy 

Leonardo Colavitti, Giovanni Lanzano, Sara Sgobba, Francesca Pacor, and František Gallovič

Rupture source directivity and its potential frequency dependence remains an open question in seismology, especially for small-to-moderate earthquakes. 

In this research, we first calibrate a non-ergodic empirical model of the acceleration Fourier Amplitude Spectra (FAS), and then we adapt our tool in Spectral Amplitude (SA). Thanks to the large amount of high-quality seismic recordings (consisting of more than 400 earthquakes from magnitude 3.4 to 6.5, 460 stations, thus involving more than 30’000 waveforms in the time frame 2008-2018), we provide a statistical overview based on empirical evidence of seismological observations in the Central Italy area, which represents a unique natural laboratory for earthquakes occurring on normal faults. The non-ergodicity enables to remove all the other components of variability (i.e. the event-, site- and path-related) in the ground motion model (GMM) and hence allowing to better isolate the effects connected to source-directivity, that are not unaccounted in the epistemic variability of the ground motion. 

According to our criteria, about 36% of the analyzed events (162 out of 456) exhibits directivity. The distribution of the rupture directions is aligned, as expected, with the strikes of the major faults of the Central Apennines. We find that the directivity is a band-limited phenomenon, which spans from corner frequency (fc) up to approximately 5 times the event’s fc; in case of not very pronounced directivity, this band tends to be narrow, suggesting that the complex rupture processes at high-frequency are mainly stochastic. Moreover, we observe directivity not only during seismic sequences, but also in background seismicity. 

Preliminary results provide a useful hint regarding directivity’s parameterization as a frequency-dependent band-limited phenomenon, to be implemented in future ground motion modeling and scenario’s predictions. 

How to cite: Colavitti, L., Lanzano, G., Sgobba, S., Pacor, F., and Gallovič, F.: Empirical evidence of frequency-dependent directivity effects from small-to-moderate normal fault earthquakes in Central Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5976, 2022.

EGU22-6939 | Presentations | SM4.1

Contribution of thermal weakening in the frictional rupture dynamics 

Federica Paglialunga, Francois Passelègue, Mathias Lebihain, and Marie Violay

The analogy between earthquakes (i.e. frictional ruptures) and shear crack motions is commonly used to investigate and understand the mechanics and occurrence of such natural phenomena. However, if on one side experimental works showed how shear cracks (obeying to a square root singularity, in the framework of Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics) describe the onset of frictional ruptures, on the other side recent models suggested that frictional ruptures can be controlled by unconventional singularities (i.e., singularity orders that deviated from the square root singularity) if weakening occurs behind the rupture tip.

To study this, we performed stick-slip experiments with a biaxial apparatus working in a direct shear configuration. The tested samples consist of two polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) blocks generating, once put into contact, an artificial fault interface. Normal load (1 to 5 MPa) and an increasing shear load were applied, leading to spontaneous ruptures nucleation. Rupture was captured through a strain gauge rosettes array along the fault, allowing the measurement of local strain and stress fields at high recording frequency (2 MHz).

Different events occurring at different rupture speeds (100 to 900 m/s) were studied. At the strain gauge location, a dual strength weakening is observed, reflected in a scale dependent evolution of breakdown work with fault’ slip, contrarily to fracture energy which is, by definition, scale independent. This behavior, probably caused by thermal weakening (i.e. flash heating) activated during slip, is well described by the recently developed unconventional theory of frictional ruptures (i.e. rupture driven by a non-square root singularity). We demonstrate that such unconventional singularity emerges from velocity strengthening behavior, related to heat diffusion far from the rupture tip. Moreover, these experiments suggest that an analysis of the propagating rupture in the framework of Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics, which assumes a square root singularity, could prove to be not always sufficiently exhaustive when frictional weakening occurs far from the rupture tip.

How to cite: Paglialunga, F., Passelègue, F., Lebihain, M., and Violay, M.: Contribution of thermal weakening in the frictional rupture dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6939, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6939, 2022.

EGU22-7296 | Presentations | SM4.1

3D geomechanical modelling of induced seismicity: simulated finite-source to moment tensor inversion 

Jingming Ruan, La Ode Marzujriban Masfara, Ranajit Ghose, and Wim Mulder

Geomechanical modelling is widely used to simulate the triggering of induced earthquakes in a gas-producing region, such as in the Groningen gas field. Dynamic simulation can provide information on the process of dynamic rupture during earthquake nucleation and on the generated seismic wavefield. Through geomechanical modelling, one can investigate the effects of the model parameters, e.g., depletion pattern and friction parameters. In the modelling, the dynamic rupture at a finite fault is simulated both in space and time. The resulting seismic wavefield from such a finite source should be more realistic than that from a point source. Previous studies on the inversion of induced-earthquake data in the Groningen area usually assumed a point source. In the present research, we implement the full moment tensor inversion of the synthetic waveforms caused by the dynamic rupture of a geomechanically simulated finite fault. We then link this moment tensor to the moment tensor obtained from the inversion of field-seismic data for an earlier earthquake, using the same inversion approach in both cases. The inverted moment tensor from the field seismic observation serves as a constraint to our geomechanical simulation. This enables us to perform a more realistic simulation of an induced earthquake.

How to cite: Ruan, J., Masfara, L. O. M., Ghose, R., and Mulder, W.: 3D geomechanical modelling of induced seismicity: simulated finite-source to moment tensor inversion, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7296, 2022.

EGU22-7316 | Presentations | SM4.1

On Repeating Earthquakes in the Northern Chilean Subduction Zone 

Jonas Folesky, Rens Hofman, and Jörn Kummerow

At the northern Chilean subduction zone, where the IPOC network has been monitoring seismicity since 2007, we have identified multiple families of repeating earthquakes. High data quality and long observation time allow analyzing these sequences in detail.
Often repeaters are searched to be used as creep proxies and their spatio-temporal cumulative displacement is compared with the tectonic plate convergence rate or GPS based slip rate estimates for smaller fault patches. Repeaters can be classified into periodic, pseudo-periodic or aperiodic types. Put into relation with large earthquakes such as the 2014 MW8.1 Iquique earthquake, repeaters may be described as continuous or burst type families. A precondition for such an analysis is that events are collocated and show highly similar mechanism. This is usually ensured via high cross correlation values between waveforms or by catalog location, or both. Errors in grouping would heavily bias the analysis for individual groups.
Therefore, we not only use cross correlation values, but we analyze the intra-family relations in detail. Events are relocated relative to each other based on phase based cross correlation refined s-p travel time differences. Rupture sizes are estimated and intra-family rupture histories are resolved. Having confirmed the characteristics of true repeating earthquake families in this way, we make the classifications and compute the slip rates mentioned above.
This study shows that the concept of repeating earthquakes holds beautifully in the case of the northern Chilean subduction zone. Repeater families repeatedly rupture the same patches, and they are observed to respond different to the 2014 Iquique with a strong dependence on their location. Particularly, the time around the Iquique megathrust event shows very interesting patterns in several families. We observe clear precursor patterns, burst reactions and unresponsive families simultaneously.

How to cite: Folesky, J., Hofman, R., and Kummerow, J.: On Repeating Earthquakes in the Northern Chilean Subduction Zone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7316, 2022.

EGU22-7600 | Presentations | SM4.1

Experimental observations of rupture nucleation phase on heterogeneous interface 

Alisson Gounon, Soumaya Latour, and Jean Letort

With friction experiments, we investigate the rupture dynamics process, in particular the nucleation part, of laboratory earthquakes conducted on a periodically heterogeneous interface between two polycarbonate plates. Thanks to photoelasticity we follow the evolution of rupture front along the fault over time and we estimate the stress-drop with a strain gauge localized at the center of the fault.

We observe that the nucleation process generally does not consist of a monotonic growth observed on homogeneous cases, but of an alternation between slow and fast parts that accelerates until it reaches a point at which fast propagation dominates. Those alternations are correlated with the position of heterogeneities on the interface. Moreover, we observe that nucleation process of ruptures with smaller stress drop last longer than ruptures with a higher stress drop. Finally, we also point out a large variability in the rupture process due to the balance between the friction heterogeneity and the uncontrolled stress heterogeneity.

How to cite: Gounon, A., Latour, S., and Letort, J.: Experimental observations of rupture nucleation phase on heterogeneous interface, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7600, 2022.

EGU22-7759 | Presentations | SM4.1

Source Parameter Determination Using a Spectral Decomposition Approach in the central-southern Europe 

Ming-Hsuan Yen, Dino Bindi, Riccardo Zaccarelli, Adrien Oth, Benjamin Edwards, and Fabrice Cotton

A spectral decomposition of the Fourier amplitude spectra is applied to determine the source parameters of earthquakes (source spectral shape, stress drop) that have occurred in central-southern Europe. About 52 million waveforms recorded in the target area since the late ‘90s have been downloaded from the European Integrated Data Archive (EIDA) within the tool stream2segment (Zaccarelli et al., 2019), by using the event catalog of the International Seismic Centre (ISC) and innovative data quality assessment. A non-parametric decomposition approach in this study introduced a regionalization for the attenuation models into two spatial domains (southern and “active” Europe, northern and “stable” Europe). For each domain, a spectral attenuation with hypocentral distance model is simultaneously determined and used to remove regional specific propagation effects from the spectra of recordings. Once isolated from local site effects, the obtained source spectra of 4380 earthquakes of magnitude larger than 2.5 are fitted to a standard -model to determine the seismic moment, corner frequency and Brune stress drop. The scaling relationship, spatial variation and variability of these source parameters are finally derived and discussed.

How to cite: Yen, M.-H., Bindi, D., Zaccarelli, R., Oth, A., Edwards, B., and Cotton, F.: Source Parameter Determination Using a Spectral Decomposition Approach in the central-southern Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7759, 2022.

EGU22-8117 | Presentations | SM4.1

3D modelling approach for the mitigation of central Italy seismic hazard: the Sulmona and Caramanico case studies. 

Andrea D'Ambrosio, Eugenio Carminati, Carlo Doglioni, Lorenzo Lipparini, Mario Anselmi, Teodoro Cassola, and Jan Federik Derks

The Central Apennines is characterized by the presence of several active Plio-Quaternary normal faults, potentially capable of generating damaging earthquakes (as occurred in the recent past).

The seismicity registered for central Italy in the last 20 years by the seismic network of INGV (National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology) highlights the presence of a regional seismic gap in the Sulmona and Caramanico Plio-Quaternary intermountain basins. In the study area, the magnitude of historical earthquakes ranges of from 5 to 6.8 Mw (from the 2nd century A.D. to 1933), while paleoseismological studies assigned a possible magnitude of 6.7 ± 0.1 to 4 earthquakes in the Sulmona basin (based on the fault length and the average of slip rate per event, estimated to be 1m). The high magnitude recorded for the destructive 1915 Avezzano earthquake (about 7 Mw), located in the Fucino basin (about 25 km to the west of the Sulmona basin), could suggest a similar potential seismic hazard also for the Sulmona and Caramanico normal faults. However, uncertainties remain on the activation mechanism related to the possible earthquake, expected in the study area. To reduce these uncertainties, we use a 3D modelling approach to perform a detailed calculation of the “active” rock volume of the hanging wall of the Sulmona and Caramanico faults (brittle volume), making an estimation of the possible maximum magnitude associated with these normal faults (testing different scenarios on the earthquake enucleation).

To reach this goal, a 3D structural and geological model was carried out starting from the available geological cartography, exploration wells, geophysical data (such as seismic sections and relocated earthquakes), and geological models from the literature. As a first step, several 2D balanced geological cross-sections were built across the Central Apennines to define the main structural picture at the regional scale (still discussed in literature). Cross-sections were built using MOVE (Petroleum Experts), while 3D modelling was completed using Petrel (Schlumberger) software. For the 3D modelling phase, the brittle-ductile transition (BDT) was used to localize the bottom of the potential brittle volumes at depth (assumed as maximum depth of the hypocenter). Following this methodology, the maximum magnitudes were estimated of the Sulmona (7.1 Mw, BDT at 17 km) and Caramanico (7.2 Mw, BDT at 20 km) normal faults. With the aim of simulating a more conservative scenario, the effects of a possible shallower structural cut-off for the Sulmona (8 km) and Caramanico (10 km) areas were investigated. The resulting reduced brittle volumes led to lower magnitude values estimate (6.6 Mw for the Sulmona, and 6.8 Mw for the Caramanico faults).

This approach allowed to make an estimate of the expected magnitudes for future seismic events associated to the Sulmona and Caramanico regional extensional faults, considering two different fault activation models (because of the regional structural uncertainties). Our work also demonstrates the importance of implementing robust 3D geological models to support seismogenic potential evaluation and seismic hazard studies.

How to cite: D'Ambrosio, A., Carminati, E., Doglioni, C., Lipparini, L., Anselmi, M., Cassola, T., and Derks, J. F.: 3D modelling approach for the mitigation of central Italy seismic hazard: the Sulmona and Caramanico case studies., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8117, 2022.

EGU22-8306 | Presentations | SM4.1

Using seismograms to investigate earthquake determinism 

Rebecca L. Colquhoun and Jessica C. Hawthorne

It is relatively simple to calculate the magnitude of an earthquake after it has happened.  However, it is unclear if an earthquake 'knows' its final magnitude before rupture ends.  We are interested in whether earthquakes are deterministic: whether features of the initial stages of an earthquake make accurate predictions about the earthquakes' final size.

A major piece in the puzzle of determinism was proposed around 15 years ago by Olson and Allen (2005), who found a relationship between the predominant period of the early stages of an earthquake and its final magnitude. However, the results remain controversial, partly because Olsen and Allen (2005) analysed only 71 events. Here we aim to test their prediction in a statistically robust way using many more earthquakes, from a variety of settings. 

We calculate the predominant and average periods for several thousand earthquakes from around the world. Our preliminary results find a deterministic relationship, where both parameters increase with earthquake magnitude, but with a large scatter. They highlight the importance of filtering, and the parameters used to filter, as these have a significant effect on your final result. We are therefore now analysing the spectra of these earthquakes to look for patterns amongst them, and to better understand the physical basis of the predominant and average period calculations.

How to cite: Colquhoun, R. L. and Hawthorne, J. C.: Using seismograms to investigate earthquake determinism, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8306, 2022.

EGU22-10277 | Presentations | SM4.1

The role of decarbonization and dehydration in aftershock genesis. 

Thanushika Gunatilake and Stephen A. Miller

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake in northern Japan triggered thousands of aftershocks within a few days. The 2016 Amatrice-Visso-Norcia (AVN) earthquake sequence in the central Apennines (Italy) triggered hundreds of thousands of aftershocks in the first year, and the 2021 earthquakes in Greece (March 3, 2021 and in Crete on September 12, 2021) triggered numerous sizable aftershocks within a few days. In contrast, an earthquake 100 km east of the Crete earthquake (Oct. 12, 2021) generated almost no aftershocks. Additionally, great earthquakes in Pakistan (M7.8, 2011) and Iran (M7.7, 2013) also spawned no aftershocks.  These observations contradict generally accepted physical models for aftershock genesis.  

In this talk, I compare the rich AVN earthquake sequence with earthquakes that generate few aftershocks and demonstrate through modeling that aftershocks are driven by co-seismically generated (high-pressure) fluid sources through thermal decomposition. Earthquakes without trapped fluid sources at depth, or without thermal decomposition generate few, if any aftershocks.

The AVN sequence showed dramatic differences in aftershock rates along strike, with non-Omori type aftershock behavior. Using a non-linear diffusion model that captures permeability dynamics in the crust combined with a source term to account for thermal decomposition, we show excellent agreement between model and observations for the entire Italy AVN sequence.

How to cite: Gunatilake, T. and Miller, S. A.: The role of decarbonization and dehydration in aftershock genesis., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10277, 2022.

EGU22-12223 | Presentations | SM4.1

Fault opening on thrust faults due to free surface interaction and its near-field deformation features 

Carlos Villafuerte, Harsha S. Bhat, Kurama Okubo, Esteban Rougier, and Pierpaolo Dubernet

Thrust faults are commonly known to produce significant amounts of slip, damage and ground acceleration, especially close to the free surface. The effect of the free surface on faulting has always been a standing issue in theoretical mechanics. While static solutions exist, they still cannot explain the large amounts of slip, damage and ground acceleration observed on low dipping faults. Dynamics effects raised by the presence of a free surface were first evaluated by Brune [1996] using analog experiments, which hinted at a torque mechanism induced in the hanging wall leading to a natural reduction in elastic compressive normal stress as the rupture approaches the surface. This solution was recently supported by preliminary work from Gabuchian et al. [2017], which, combining numerical and experimental simulations, also showed that the earthquake rupture, propagating up dip, induces rotation of the hanging wall, and might promote fault opening.


In this work, we use enhanced numerical solutions for earthquake rupture, based on the Combined Finite-Discrete Element Methodology (FDEM), which were recently developed by the Los Alamos National Laboratory, to carry out dynamic rupture simulations on thrust faults to characterize this opening effect and investigate the physical mechanism responsible for it. Through a systematic analysis of case studies, we explore the effect of fault geometry and friction properties on rupture behavior and its associated deformation pattern. We observe that fault opening occurs in all our simulations and increases significantly as the rupture reaches the free surface and for low dip-angle faults.We document the evolution of different metrics such as slip, slip rate, fault-normal displacement and velocities, as well as the displacements and velocities on the free surface to identify near-field deformation features that will serve as synthetic data when comparing with recorded surface deformation from real-case earthquakes.

How to cite: Villafuerte, C., Bhat, H. S., Okubo, K., Rougier, E., and Dubernet, P.: Fault opening on thrust faults due to free surface interaction and its near-field deformation features, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12223, 2022.

EGU22-1405 | Presentations | TS6.1

Structure and Morphology of the Mid-Ocean-Ridge in the Red Sea 

Antoine Delaunay, Abdulkader Alafifi, Guillaume Baby, Jakub Fedorik, Paul Tapponnier, and Jérôme Dyment

This presentation describes the structure and morphologies associated with seafloor spreading in the Red Sea inferred from bathymetric, gravity, magnetic and seismic data. We show that the orientation of the structures is consistent with an Arabia-Nubia Euler pole located within the 95% confidence of Ar-Rajehi et al, (2010) Euler pole and with the tectonic model initially proposed by Girdler (1984). At the Red Sea scale, our model shows that a spreading axis extends along its entire length, even though it is mostly covered by allochthonous Middle Miocene salt and Late Miocene minibasins flowing inward from the margins. In the northern Red Sea, oceanic basement is only exposed through small windows within the salt, forming a series of deeps. The seafloor segments symmetrically bisect the new ocean in the south. Right-stepping transform faults that cluster near Jeddah, Zabargad and Ikhwan Islands offset the ridge axis as spreading is getting more oblique towards the Euler Pole. The northern, central and southern Red Sea segments display a well-developed mid-ocean ridge flanked by landward-dipping volcanic basement, typical of slow spreading ridges. In the northern magma poor spreading segment, mantle exhumation is likely at the transition between continental and oceanic crust. Transpression and transtension along transform faults accounts for the exhumation of the mantle on Zabargad Island as well as the collapse of a pull-apart basin in the Conrad deep.

We propose a new structural model for the Red Sea constrained by the geodetic rules of tectonic plates movements on a sphere. Finally, we discuss the effect of the Danakil microplate on the ridge morphology and show that the Arabia-Nubia-Danakil triple junction is likely located further north than previously described, around 18±0.5°N, where we observe a shift in the ridge axis orientation as well as in the spreading orientation.

How to cite: Delaunay, A., Alafifi, A., Baby, G., Fedorik, J., Tapponnier, P., and Dyment, J.: Structure and Morphology of the Mid-Ocean-Ridge in the Red Sea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1405, 2022.

EGU22-1696 | Presentations | TS6.1

Continental rifts and mantle convection: Insights from the East African Rift and a new model of the West European Rift System 

Laurent Jolivet, Cécile Allanic, Thorsten Becker, Nicolas Bellahsen, Justine Briais, Anne Davaille, Claudio Faccenna, Eric Lasseur, and Barbara Romanowicz

The origin of the Eocene-Oligocene European Cenozoic Rift System (ECRIS) is debated in terms of driving forces, far-field or near field, Alpine slab-pull or active plume. An analysis of residual (non-isostatic) topography over Africa and Europe reveals domains elongated parallel to the absolute motion of plates in a hot-spot reference frame. The East African Rift (EAR) and the ECRIS sit on top of such positive anomalies. A recent whole mantle tomographic model (French et al., 2013; French & Romanowicz, 2015; Davaille & Romanowicz, 2020) shows in addition that the low shear-wave velocity zones of the lower and upper mantle are organized with a bundle of vertical plumes and horizontal fingers pointing in the same direction parallel to the absolute motion of Africa and Eurasia, thus parallel to the main rifts. The case of the EAR and its magmatic extension toward the north across the Arabian Plate is particularly clear with several levels of such fingers. The northward migration of the first volcanism from Ethiopia to Armenia between the Eocene and the Late Miocene suggests that the asthenosphere moves faster than the plates and thus drives plate motion (Faccenna et al., 2013). We propose a simple model where plates are driven by basal drag, following an upwelling from the low-velocity anomalies below Africa and toward subduction zones. The EAR develops as lithospheric weak zones on top of the positive anomalies of residual topography due to the underlying low velocity anomalies elongated parallel to the absolute motion. This indicates an interplay between large-scale convection, a small-scale fingering instability, and lithospheric deformation. The development of the Eocene-Oligocene short-lived ECRIS and its interference with Mediterranean slab dynamics are then discussed in the framework of this simple model.

How to cite: Jolivet, L., Allanic, C., Becker, T., Bellahsen, N., Briais, J., Davaille, A., Faccenna, C., Lasseur, E., and Romanowicz, B.: Continental rifts and mantle convection: Insights from the East African Rift and a new model of the West European Rift System, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1696, 2022.

EGU22-1799 | Presentations | TS6.1

Punctuated propagation of a corrugated extensional detachment offshore West of Ireland 

Gaël Lymer, Conrad Childs, and John Walsh

Corrugated detachments are fundamental crustal structures found in many extensional systems and plate tectonic boundaries, including mid-oceanic ridges and rifted margins. Direct observations of the complete geometry of extensional detachments are rare and our understanding of detachment fault structures and the mechanisms of development of high-angle normal faults and their rotation to lower angles mainly relies on proxy observations, for example seismicity trends, and numerical modelling.

We present interpretations of a high-resolution 3D seismic reflection survey from the hyperextended domain of the Porcupine Basin, Offshore West of Ireland. The 3D data image a highly reflective corrugated surface, the P reflector, that we interpret as an extensional detachment preserved in its slip position that likely developed at the top mantle surface during Jurassic hyperextension of the basin. Within the 3D data, the P reflector covers an area 95 km long and 35 km wide and has a domal shape that is elongate in the N-S direction with a crest at ~6.3 s two way travel time. It is the first time to our knowledge that 3D seismic data has imaged a complete detachment in the hyperextended area of a rifted margin, including its domal shape, the breakaway structures, and the linkage between the steep and shallow segments of the detachment. The resolved texture and geometry of the detachment and its relationship with overlying faults provide a basis for refining current models of detachment formation accommodating extreme extension.

Steep west-dipping faults mark the western frontal margin of the detachment. The steep faults pass eastward into shallower, predominantly west-dipping faults that appear to merge downwards with the P reflector. The P reflector has pronounced E-W corrugations, interpreted to indicate the detachment slip vector. The reflector is also characterised by abrupt changes in dip across N-S transverse ridges. These ridges are spaced on average 10 km apart, they coincide with lines of intersection between the P reflector and large overlying faults, and they often mark the termination of detachment corrugations. We interpret these ridges as recording former locations of the western boundary of the detachment so that they indicate a step-wise westward propagation of the P reflector. While it is generally accepted that detachments develop by oceanward propagation, we suggest that the faceted nature of the detachment indicates that this process is a punctuated one and that the clearly imaged transverse ridges record the oceanward stepping of the detachment with the initiation of a new family of steep faults.

We propose a new concept for the growth of detachments that may be applicable to other detachments that accommodate extreme extension, for example at mid-oceanic slow and ultra-slow spreading ridges.

How to cite: Lymer, G., Childs, C., and Walsh, J.: Punctuated propagation of a corrugated extensional detachment offshore West of Ireland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1799, 2022.

EGU22-2208 | Presentations | TS6.1 | Highlight

New mapping of the Afar Depression: towards the better understanding of rift dynamics in a hotspot-influenced continental rift zone 

Valentin Rime, Anneleen Foubert, Balemwal Atnafu, and Tesfaye Kidane

The Afar Depression forms a triple junction between three rift systems: the Red Sea Rift, the Gulf of Aden Rift and the Main Ethiopian Rift. Rifting began in the Oligocene after the eruption of the Ethiopian Flood Basalts. It represents a unique modern example of hotspot-influenced continental breakup. Its emerged position allows detailed field and remote sensing investigations. Important mapping efforts in the area during the 60s and 70s provided very valuable input for the understanding of the local geology but also for the development of global tectonic, volcanological and sedimentary concepts in continental rift settings.

This study presents the compilation of a new geological map which covers the complete Afar depression and includes its Phanerozoic sedimentary and magmatic cover. The map is based on extensive literature research, remote sensing and fieldwork. The geological history of the Afar Depression has also been reviewed. The map evidences the complexity of the rift system with the interaction of distinct tectonic plates, blocks, rift segments, sedimentary basins and volcanic areas that evolve through time and space. This integrative geological map and review is used to reassess and discuss aspects of the style, evolution, kinematics and dynamics of this rift system. Studying this unique modern example of active rifting will help in the better comprehension of rift processes and passive margin development worldwide.

How to cite: Rime, V., Foubert, A., Atnafu, B., and Kidane, T.: New mapping of the Afar Depression: towards the better understanding of rift dynamics in a hotspot-influenced continental rift zone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2208, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2208, 2022.

EGU22-2290 | Presentations | TS6.1

Petrological evidence for focussed mid-crustal magma intrusion in the Main Ethiopian Rift 

Kevin Wong, David Ferguson, Penny Wieser, Daniel Morgan, Marie Edmonds, Amdemichael Zafu Tadesse, and Gezahegn Yirgu

Rifting in Ethiopia is predominantly driven by magmatic intrusion into the rifting crust. Unravelling the dynamics of lithospheric melt migration and storage is paramount to understanding the late-stage development of continental rifts. In particular, extensive geophysical observations of the structure and composition of rifting crust must be supported by petrology to provide a complete picture of rift-related magmatism. We present major element, trace element, and volatile element compositional data for olivine-hosted melt inclusions from the Boku Volcanic Complex (BVC), a monogenetic cone field in the north Main Ethiopian Rift. Through combined CO2-density-calibrated Raman spectroscopy and secondary ion mass spectrometry we assess the total CO2 concentrations within the melt inclusions allowing us to estimate pressures of entrapment via CO2-H2O solubility models. Our results show that primitive BVC melts carry up to 0.58 wt% CO2 (mean ~0.2 wt%), with as much as half of the CO2 in the melt inclusion present within shrinkage bubbles. Volatile solubility models suggest that these melts are stored over a narrow range of depths (10-15 km), consistent with geophysical data and implying the existence of focussed zone of magma intrusion at mid-crustal depths. The expansive range of trace element concentrations in the inclusions illustrate that, at the time of entrapment, compositional heterogeneity remains extant, and melts must therefore be stored in discrete magmatic bodies with limited mixing. Our results have implications for understanding the interplay between magma intrusion and extensional tectonics during continental break-up, such as magmatic compensation of crustal thinning and the thermo-mechanical effects of melt emplacement into the rifting crust.

How to cite: Wong, K., Ferguson, D., Wieser, P., Morgan, D., Edmonds, M., Tadesse, A. Z., and Yirgu, G.: Petrological evidence for focussed mid-crustal magma intrusion in the Main Ethiopian Rift, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2290, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2290, 2022.

EGU22-3259 | Presentations | TS6.1

Triassic sedimentation on the Eastern Atlantic margin: two examples from Moroccan Meseta and Portugal 

Rachid Essamoud, Abdelkrim Afenzar, and Ahmed Belqadi

The continental deposits of the Triassic basins developed along the eastern margin of the Central and North Atlantic show a similar sedimentological evolution, as those of the western margin resulting from the interaction of various processes.

The examples chosen in this work are those of the Mohammedia-Benslimane-ElGara-Berrechid basin MBEB in the Moroccan meseta that we studied in detail in the field, and that we tried to compare with Portugal which is on the same East Atlantic margin.

At the begininig of the Mesozoic, the northwestern part of the African continent was affected by an initial fracturing associated with the early stages of the opening of the Central Atlantic (Atlantic rift) during which several Moroccan Triassic basins are open.

The Mohammedia-Benslimane-ElGara-Berrechid basin is part of the Moroccan western Triassic province, which corresponds to all the basins of the Moroccan Atlantic margin in direct relation with the Atlantic rift. In this basin, an asymmetric rift is set up on the old Hercynian structures during the Carnien-Norien, the paroxysm is reached at the Trias-Lias passage with the installation of basalts (CAMP: Central Atlantique Magmatic Province).

During rifting (syn-rift stage in the Upper Triassic), the MBEB basin experienced three major phases of sediment filling. The first phase is purely continental, the first deposits to arrive in the opening basin are of proximal fluvial origin. Subsequently, the decrease of the paleopente and the rise of the base level generated paleoenvironmental changes in the basin (2nd phase), and the deposition system evolved towards distal environments. During the third phase, the syn-rift sedimentary series recorded a marine incursion in the late Triassic with saliferous sedimentation. This marine intervention is deduced from the presence of a thick saliferous series with a large lateral extension and whose isotopic ratios of sulfur and bromine contents indicate their marine origin. These marine waters are probably of Tethysian origin and are also linked to the opening of the Proto-Atlantic.

In Portugal, the Upper Triassic is represented by two formations in the north of the Lusitanian basin (Palain, 1976): Silves Fm which is fluvial sandstone and Dagorda Fm which includes first dolomites and then evaporites. In this Portuguese basin, the proximal-distal fluvial transition took place at the Norien-Rhétien limit. This also rift-type basin was filled with continental fluvial and alluvial clastic rocks of the Silves Formation, largely derived from the adjacent Iberian highlands of the Meseta. Locally, black shales are present at the top of the Silves and may represent the first marine incursion into the basin.

The comparison between the two basins shows that they followed a similar evolution at the base and in the middle of the series but at the top the MBEB basin presented thick layers of evaporites while that of Portugal presented mainly dolomites attributed to paralic facies.

Palain, C., 1976. Une série détritique terrigene; 'les grès de silves'; Trias et Lias inférieur du Portugal. Mem. Serv. Geol. Portugal, p. 25 (377 pp.)

How to cite: Essamoud, R., Afenzar, A., and Belqadi, A.: Triassic sedimentation on the Eastern Atlantic margin: two examples from Moroccan Meseta and Portugal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3259, 2022.

EGU22-4683 | Presentations | TS6.1

The Crust and Uppermost-Mantle Structure of the Turkana Depression: Insights from Surface-Wave Analysis 

Rita Kounoudis, Ian Bastow, Cynthia Ebinger, Christopher Ogden, Atalay Ayele, Rebecca Bendick, Nicholas Mariita, Gladys Kianji, Martin Musila, and Garrett Sullivan

Multiple geoscientific studies along the Main Ethiopian and Eastern rifts have revealed that extension via magma intrusion now prevails over plate stretching as the primary mechanism for strain accommodation throughout the crust and mantle lithosphere. However, problematic in this picture is where the Main Ethiopian and Eastern rifts meet, across the low-lying, broadly-rifted, and as-yet poorly-studied Turkana Depression which separates the elevated Ethiopian and East African plateaus. We have so far revealed through body-wave tomography (Kounoudis et al., 2021), that the Depression does not lack mantle dynamic support in comparison to the plateaus, suggesting a significantly thinned crust, resulting from superposed Mesozoic and Cenozoic rifting, most likely explains its low elevations. Slow uppermost-mantle wavespeeds imply the presence of either melt-intruded mantle lithosphere or ponded asthenospheric material below lithospheric thin-spots induced by the region’s multiple rifting phases. To better illuminate the Depression’s lithosphere-asthenosphere system, we conduct a surface-wave analysis to image crust and uppermost-mantle structure using data from the NSF-NERC funded Turkana Rift Arrays Investigating Lithospheric Structure (TRAILS) project broadband seismic network. In particular, we investigate the presence of melt, whether the lithosphere is melt-rich, melt-poor, and/or if ponded zones of asthenosphere exist below variably thinned lithosphere. Group velocity dispersion curves, measured using data from local and regional earthquakes, yield the first high resolution fundamental mode Rayleigh-wave group velocity maps for periods between 4 and 40s for the Turkana Depression. In collaboration with the ongoing TRAILS GPS project, we explore how these results relate to present-day versus past episodes of extension.

 

Kounoudis, R., Bastow, I.D., Ebinger, C.J., Ogden, C.S., Ayele, A., Bendick, R., Mariita, N., Kiangi, G., Wigham, G., Musila, M. & Kibret, B. (2021). Body-wave tomographic imaging of the Turkana Depression: Implications for rift development and plume-lithosphere interactions. G3, 22, doi:10.1029/2021GC009782.

How to cite: Kounoudis, R., Bastow, I., Ebinger, C., Ogden, C., Ayele, A., Bendick, R., Mariita, N., Kianji, G., Musila, M., and Sullivan, G.: The Crust and Uppermost-Mantle Structure of the Turkana Depression: Insights from Surface-Wave Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4683, 2022.

EGU22-5758 | Presentations | TS6.1

Evolution of rift systems and their fault networks in response to surface processes 

Derek Neuharth, Sascha Brune, Thilo Wrona, Anne Glerum, Jean Braun, and Xiaoping Yuan

During the formation of rifted continental margins, a rift evolves through a number of stages that produce major sedimentary basins and distinct rifted margin domains. While these domains have been classified based on the resulting structures and crustal thickness seen in geophysical data, the evolution of the fault network that produces these domains is not as well understood. Further, margin architecture may be influenced by erosion and sedimentation. Previous studies have qualitatively examined how faults respond to sedimentation during rifting, but there has not been a quantitative study on how variable surface processes efficiency affects fault network properties and the effect this has on rift evolution.

In this study we use a two-way coupling between the geodynamic code ASPECT (Kronbichler et al., 2012) and the surface processes code FastScape (Braun and Willett, 2013) to run 12 high-resolution 2D rift models that represent asymmetric, symmetric, and wide rift types (Neuharth et al., in review). For each rift type, we vary the surface process efficiency by altering the bedrock erodibility (Kf) from no surface processes to low (Kf = 10-6 m0.2/yr), medium (10-5), and high efficiency (10-4). To analyze these models, we use a novel quantitative fault analysis toolbox that extracts discrete faults from our continuum models and correlates them through space and time (https://github.com/thilowrona/fatbox). This toolbox allows us to track faults and their properties such as the number of faults, their displacement, and cumulative length, to see how they evolve through time, as well as how these properties change given different rifting types and surface processes efficiency.

Based on the evolution of fault network properties, we find that rift fault networks evolve through 5 major phases: 1) distributed deformation and coalescence, 2) fault system growth, 3) fault system decline and basinward localization, 4) rift migration, and 5) continental breakup. Each of these phases can be correlated to the rifted margin domains defined from geophysical data (e.g., proximal, necking, hyperextended, and oceanic). We find that surface processes do not have a large impact on the overall evolution of a rift, but they do affect fault network properties by enhancing strain localization, increasing fault longevity, and reducing the total length of a fault system. Through these changes, they can prolong rift phases and delay continental breakup with increasing surface process efficiency. To summarize, we find that surface processes do not change the overall evolution of rifts, but they do affect fault growth and as a result the timing of rifting.

 

Braun, J., and Willett, S.D., 2013, A very efficient O(n), implicit and parallel method to solve the stream power equation governing fluvial incision and landscape evolution: Geomorphology, v. 180–181, p. 170–179, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2012.10.008.

Kronbichler, M., Heister, T., and Bangerth, W., 2012, High Accuracy Mantle Convection Simulation through Modern Numerical Methods.: Geophysical Journal International, v. 191, doi:doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.2012.05609.x.

Neuharth, D., Brune, S., Wrona, T., Glerum, A., Braun, J., and Yuan, X.P., (in review at  Tectonics), Evolution of rift systems and their fault networks in response to surface processes, [preprint], doi: https://doi.org/10.31223/X5Q333

How to cite: Neuharth, D., Brune, S., Wrona, T., Glerum, A., Braun, J., and Yuan, X.: Evolution of rift systems and their fault networks in response to surface processes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5758, 2022.

EGU22-5938 | Presentations | TS6.1

Palaeobathymetric evolution of the Nova Scotia rifted margin during the Central Atlantic Ocean opening 

Julie Tugend, Nick Kusznir, Geoffroy Mohn, Mark Deptuck, Kris Kendell, Fraser Keppie, Natasha Morrison, and Russell Dmytriw

The palaeobathymetric evolution of rifted margins during continental breakup is complex. We investigate the subsidence of Late Triassic to Early Jurassic evaporitic sequences in the proximal and distal parts of the Scotian margin that formed during the opening of the Central Atlantic Ocean.

We use a 3D flexural backstripping technique, which incorporates decompaction and post-breakup reverse thermal subsidence modelling applied to key stratigraphic intervals through the Jurassic down to the Late Triassic base salt. The isostatic evolution of rifted margins depends on crustal thinning, lithosphere thermal perturbation and melt production during rifting and breakup. Quantitative analysis of seismic reflection and gravity anomaly data together with subsidence analysis have also been used to determine crustal thickness variations and ocean–continent transition structure, and to constrain the along strike variability in breakup related magmatism and crustal composition.

Reverse post-breakup subsidence modelling to the Late Triassic base salt restores this horizon at breakup time to near sea level in the proximal domains of the Scotian margin where the continental crust was only slightly thinned during rifting. In contrast, predicted palaeobathymetry of the base salt surface restored to breakup time is greater than 2 to 3 km in the distal parts of the margin where the continental crust was highly thinned (<10km) close to the ocean-continent-transition. One possible interpretation of this is that while the proximal salt underwent post-rift thermal subsidence only, the distal salt was deposited during the latest stage of rifting focused along the distal domains of the Scotian margin, where it underwent additional tectonic subsidence from crustal thinning. This observed difference between the subsidence of proximal and distal salt has been observed elsewhere on the South Atlantic margins (e.g., the Angolan Kwanza margin) and illustrates the complexity of the subsidence and palaeobathymetric evolution of distal rifted margins during breakup.

The deposition of Triassic evaporites occurred before and after the emplacement of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP). The impact of the CAMP on rifting, crustal structure and palaeobathymetric evolution of the Nova Scotia remains to be determined. We do not exclude an additional positive dynamic topography effect at breakup time related to the CAMP magmatic event.

How to cite: Tugend, J., Kusznir, N., Mohn, G., Deptuck, M., Kendell, K., Keppie, F., Morrison, N., and Dmytriw, R.: Palaeobathymetric evolution of the Nova Scotia rifted margin during the Central Atlantic Ocean opening, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5938, 2022.

EGU22-6172 | Presentations | TS6.1

Early Carboniferous rifting in the Southern Urals: New isotopic dating of plutonic and volcanic complexes 

Natalia Pravikova, Alexander Tevelev, Alexey Kazansky, Irina Kosheleva, Ivan Sobolev, Alexandra Borisenko, Egor Koptev, Petr Shestakov, and Jiří Žák

Early Carboniferous igneous rocks are widespread in the Southern Urals. We have obtained new stratigraphic and isotopic data on plutonic and volcanic complexes, allowing us to determine correlation of their age and to construct a new geodynamic model.

The prevailing tectonic setting in the Southern Urals during the Early Carboniferous was sinistral transtension. Volcanic and plutonic complexes in transtensional zones were synchronously formed along large submeridional orogen-parallel strike-slip faults, but are particularly abundant within two N–S-trending zones: Magnitogorsk and East Ural.

The upper Tournaisian–lower Visean sequence in the Magnitogorsk zone consists mainly of moderately alkaline volcanic rocks, basalt and rhyolite are predominant, but pyroclastic, volcano-sedimentary, terrigenous, and carbonate rocks are also widespread. The middle Visean sequence consists of moderately alkaline basalt, andesite, dacite including lavas, tuffs and tuffites. The thickness of the Lower Carboniferous volcanic group varies from 1200 to 5500 m. The age of the volcanic rocks has been proved by findings of foraminifera in limestone interbeds. The oldest volcanic rocks appear in upper Tournaisian, while the youngest are found in the middle upper Visean. New U–Pb zircon dating using SHRIMP is now in progress.

Volcanic rocks in the East Ural zone occur within a few tectonic sheets. The sequence consists of lavas and tuffs of basalt, basaltic andesite, andesite and rhyolite. The total thickness of the sequence varies from 800 to 1500 m. The age of the sequence is determined by findings of fossil plants as middle Visean.

We studied eight plutons in the Magnitogorsk and six in the East Ural zones. Most of them record several intrusive phases. The composition of the rocks varies from gabbro to granodiorites and granites from normal to moderately alkaline series. We combined our new isotopic data on zircons (SHRIMP) with published ages and came to the following conclusions.

  • Two main stages of Early Carboniferous plutonism can be distinguished in the Southern Ural. The first began simultaneously in both zones at the Devonian/Carboniferous boundary (ca. 356–357 Ma) and then changed to volcanic activity at around 346 Ma in the Magnitogosk zone and at around 340 Ma in the East Ural zone, respectively. The second stage began after the termination of volcanic activity and corresponds to 334–327 Ma interval in both zones. So, stages of active volcanism and plutonism alternate in time.
  • Early Carboniferous rifting began with intrusion of plutons, usually associated with transtensional zones under oblique collision. The subsequent volcanic stage corresponds to local extension. The next stage of plutonism began just after volcanism termination and marked a cessation of tectonic activity.

The reported study was funded by RFBR and Czech Science Foundation according to the research project № 19-55-26009. Centre of collective usage ‘Geoportal’, Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU), provided access to remote sensing data.

How to cite: Pravikova, N., Tevelev, A., Kazansky, A., Kosheleva, I., Sobolev, I., Borisenko, A., Koptev, E., Shestakov, P., and Žák, J.: Early Carboniferous rifting in the Southern Urals: New isotopic dating of plutonic and volcanic complexes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6172, 2022.

EGU22-7155 | Presentations | TS6.1 | Highlight

Geodynamic Drivers of the East African Rift System 

Anne Glerum, Sascha Brune, and Walid Ben Mansour

The East African Rift System (EARS) is the largest active continental rift on Earth. Inherited lithospheric strength variations have played a large role in forming the system’s current geometry. The partly overlapping eastern and western EARS branches encompass the large Victoria continental microplate that rotates counter-clockwise with respect to Nubia, in striking contrast to its neighboring plates.

Both the forces driving rifting in the EARS as a whole and the rotation of Victoria in particular are debated. Whereas some studies largely ascribe the rifting to horizontal mantle tractions deriving from plume-induced flow patterns (e.g., Ghosh et al., 2013), or to more equal contributions of mantle tractions and gravitational potential energy (e.g., Kendall and Lithgow-Bertelloni, 2016), recent work by Rajaonarison et al. (2021) points to a dominant role for lithospheric buoyancy forces in the opening of the rift system. Similarly, other numerical modeling (Glerum et al., 2020) has shown that Victoria’s rotation can be induced through drag of the major plates along the edges of the microplate transmitted along stronger lithospheric zones, with weaker regions facilitating the rotation, without the need for plume-lithosphere interactions (e.g., Koptev et al., 2015; Calais et al., 2006).

With unprecedented data-driven, regional spherical geodynamic numerical models spanning the EARS and the upper 660 km of mantle, we aim to identify the individual contributions of lithosphere and mantle drivers of deformation in the EARS and of Victoria’s rotation. Observational data informs the model setup in terms of crustal and lithospheric thickness, sublithospheric mantle density structure and plate motions. Comparison to separate observations of the high-resolution model evolution of strain localization, melting conditions, horizontal stress directions, topography and horizontal plate motions allows us to identify the geodynamic drivers at play and quantify the contributions of large-scale upper mantle flow to the local deformation of the East African crust.

 

Calais et al. (2006). GSL Special Publications, 259(1), 9–22.

Ghosh et al. (2013). J. Geophys. Res. 118, 346–368.

Glerum et al. (2020). Nature Communications 11 (1), 2881.

Koptev et al. (2015). Nat. Geosci. 8, 388–392.

Rajaonarison et al. (2021). Geophys. Res. Letters, 48(6), 1–10.

How to cite: Glerum, A., Brune, S., and Ben Mansour, W.: Geodynamic Drivers of the East African Rift System, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7155, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7155, 2022.

EGU22-7186 | Presentations | TS6.1

Tectonic control on the reef evolution in the Red Sea syn-rift basin 

Tihana Pensa, Abdulkader Afifi, Antoine Delaunay, and Guillaume Baby

Fossil carbonate reefs are common along rifts and rifted passive margins. They provide valuable paleoecological and paleogeographical information. Moreover, porous reef buildups are targeted as potential oil and gas reservoirs and sites for gas storage.

The Red Sea and Gulf of Suez contain several generations of reef deposits: (1) syn-rift Early and Middle Miocene reefs that formed along the eroded footwalls of normal faults, and (2) post-rift Pliocene-Holocene coastal reefs that split apart, subsided, and aggraded to form carbonate platforms by salt-driven raft tectonics. The Late Miocene lacks reefs due to evaporitic conditions. This study focuses on the uplifted Early-Middle Miocene reef deposits, which outcrop sporadically along the Arabian and African margins of the Red Sea, particularly the northern half, over a distance of ~1000 km. They are exhumed along the coastal plain at elevations of 50-150 meters. We studied several reefs on the Arabian side and carried out age determination implementing a revised planktonic foraminifera zonation and paleoenvironmental interpretation. We also used satellite images to identify and map similar exhumed reefs on the African side.

The Miocene reefs are located along the eroded footwalls of normal fault scarps that form the first or second marginal half grabens, usually sitting unconformably over the basement. The flat reef and back-reef lagoonal facies are often removed by erosion, but the dipping thick fore-reef talus breccias are preserved. The breccias are an unsorted mix of coral reef and back reef debris and also contain basement clasts. The linear fore-reef talus deposits follow along the fault scarps, revealing paleo-valleys incised into the hanging wall. Placing the reef on the basin-scale helps us distinguish the tectonic influence, accompanied by climate and eustatic sea-level variation, on shallow marine carbonates during rifting.

Mapping all published, newly discovered, and inferred outcrops along the African and Arabian coast of the Red Sea allow us to develop a new tectono-sedimentary model for reef evolution in the syn-rift setting. The proposed model explains the absence of the reef outcrops in the southern areas of the Arabian Red Sea and predicts subsurface zones where reef growth possibly took place. Nature of the contact between reef carbonates and the underlying Precambrian basement in conjunction with the consistently preserved fore-reef zone disclose the uplift history and erosion events prior and post reef growth. In addition, following the reef distribution, we developed a syn-rift paleogeographic model of the Red Sea.

How to cite: Pensa, T., Afifi, A., Delaunay, A., and Baby, G.: Tectonic control on the reef evolution in the Red Sea syn-rift basin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7186, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7186, 2022.

EGU22-8003 | Presentations | TS6.1

Evolution of detachment fault systems within necking domains: insights from the Frøya and Gossa Highs, mid-Norwegian margin 

Julie Linnéa Sehested Gresseth, Per Terje Osmundsen, and Gwenn Péron-Pinvidic

Within rifted margins, the necking domain corresponds to the area where drastic reduction in basement thickness leads the crust to attain a wedge-shape. The crustal thinning occurs along detachment fault systems typically recording displacements in the order of 10s of kilometers. These systems commonly shape the crustal taper and eventually the taper break, where crustal thickness is thinned to 10 km or less. In recent years, it has become clear that evolutionary models for detachment fault systems remain unsatisfactory as the well-known principles for smaller magnitude fault systems are not fully applicable to these large-magnitude systems. Consequently, the detailed responses in the foot- and hanging walls and associated basin sedimentation within detachment fault systems and necking domains remain poorly understood compared to those observed in extensional half-graben basins.

We use interpretation of 3D- and 2D seismic reflection data from the Mid-Norwegian rifted margin to discuss the effects of lateral interaction and linkage of extensional detachment faults on the necking domain configuration. We investigate how the structural evolution of these detachment faults interact with the effects of isostatic rollback to produce complex 3D geometries and control the configuration of the associated supradetachment basins. The study area demonstrates how successive incision may induce a complex structural relief in response to faulting and folding. In the proximal parts of the south Vøring and northeastern Møre basins, the Klakk and Main Møre Fault Complexes form the outer necking breakaway complex and the western boundary of the Frøya High. We interpret the previously identified metamorphic core complex within the central Frøya High as an extension-parallel turtleback-structure. The now eroded turtleback is flanked by a supradetachment basin with two synclinal depocenters resting at the foot of the necking domain above the taper break. We attribute footwall and turtleback exhumation to Jurassic-Early Cretaceous detachment faulting along the Klakk and Main Møre Fault Complexes. The study area further demonstrates how detachment fault evolution may lead to the formation of younger, successively incising fault splays locally. Consequently, displacement may occur along laterally linked fault segments generated at different stages in time. Implicitly, the detachment fault system may continue to change configuration and therefore re-iterate itself and its geometry during its evolution.

How to cite: Gresseth, J. L. S., Osmundsen, P. T., and Péron-Pinvidic, G.: Evolution of detachment fault systems within necking domains: insights from the Frøya and Gossa Highs, mid-Norwegian margin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8003, 2022.

EGU22-8663 | Presentations | TS6.1 | Highlight

Spatio-temporal evolution of rift volcanism driven by progressive crustal unloading 

Gaetano Ferrante, Eleonora Rivalta, and Francesco Maccaferri

Continental rifting can be accompanied by a large amount of volcanism, which is often observed to shift from the inside of the rift basin to its flanks and conversely, but the controls on this variability are still unclear. Maccaferri et al. (2014) proposed that elastic stresses under rifts are dominated by gravitational unloading due to the excavation of the graben. According to this model, off-rift volcanism follows the creation of a stress barrier below the rift that drives dikes diagonally away from the rift axis, or stops their ascent altogether so that they get stuck as lower crustal sills. The Maccaferri et al. (2014) model is however based on simplyfied assumptions that need to be relaxed to further test its validity. In particular, the model neglects the effect of the accumulating crustal intrusions on ascending dikes. Here we build on this model to explain the spatio-temporal evolution of rift volcanism in terms of the reorientation of principal stresses in the crust due to the progressive unloading of a rift basin with time. To do so, we extend the dike propagation boundary element code used by Maccaferri et al. (2014) to account for the stresses generated by previously ascended dikes. We find that volcanism in rift zones starts inside the rift depression for small values of basin depth. The deepening of the rift is accompanied by the development of a stress barrier under the basin which deflects ascending dikes, causing a shift of surface volcanism from the inside to the flanks. The intensification of the barrier due to further deepening of the basin promotes the formation of lower crustal sill-like structures that pile up under the rift, shallowing the depth at which magma is injected. This eventually leads to dikes being injected from above the stress barrier, moving surface volcanism back to the axial part of the rift. We compare the results of our model to observations of evolving volcanism and crustal structure for rifts of different graben width and depth.

How to cite: Ferrante, G., Rivalta, E., and Maccaferri, F.: Spatio-temporal evolution of rift volcanism driven by progressive crustal unloading, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8663, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8663, 2022.

EGU22-8715 | Presentations | TS6.1

Continental breakup style of Marginal Seas 

Geoffroy Mohn, Jean-Claude Ringenbach, Michael Nirrengarten, Julie Tugend, Anders McCarthy, and Chao Lei

Marginal Seas are extensional basins formed in a convergent setting near active subduction zones. They are characterized by a short life (<25 Ma), as well as unstable and changing directions of seafloor spreading. However, the underlying processes involved in their formation from rifting to seafloor spreading initiation are still debated (supra-subduction convection/extension, slab-pull). This problem is further compounded by the fact that our understanding of continental breakup is primarily derived from the evolution of magma-poor and magma-rich Continent-Ocean Transitions (COT) of the Atlantic margins.

In this contribution, we characterize the tectono-magmatic processes acting during continental breakup by investigating the COT structures of three main Marginal Seas located in the Western Pacific, namely the South China Sea, the Coral Sea and the Woodlark Basin. All three examples formed under rapid extension rates and propagation of seafloor spreading. Although each marginal basin has its uniqueness, we show that these three marginal basins are characterized by a narrow COT (typically <~20 km), documenting the sharp juxtaposition of continental crust against igneous oceanic crust. The COT of the three basins shows that final extension is accommodated by the activity of one major low-angle normal fault. This extension is contemporaneous with important magmatic activity expressed by volcanic edifices, dykes and sills emplaced in the distalmost part of these margins. Such narrow COT suggests that a rapid shift from rifting to spreading.

The rapid localization of extensional deformation in a narrow area has major implications for partial melting generation. The evolution of extensional structures is controlled by the interplay of lithospheric thinning, asthenosphere upwelling and decompression melting. High extension rate prevents conductive cooling and lead to focus volcanic activity in a narrow area evolving rapidly in space and time to magmatic accretion. Causes for the fast extensions rates of Marginal Sea rifting are likely controlled by kinematic boundary conditions directly or indirectly controlled by nearby subduction zones. Such mode of breakup is probably not limited to marginal Seas but only enhanced in such settings.

How to cite: Mohn, G., Ringenbach, J.-C., Nirrengarten, M., Tugend, J., McCarthy, A., and Lei, C.: Continental breakup style of Marginal Seas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8715, 2022.

Breakup volcanism along rifted passive margins is highly variable in time and space. The factors controlling magmatic activity during continental rifting and breakup are not resolved and controversial. Here we use numerical models to investigate melt generation at rifted margins with contrasting rifting styles corresponding to those observed in natural systems. Our results demonstrate a surprising correlation of enhanced magmatism with margin width. This relationship is explained by depth-dependent extension, during which the lithospheric mantle ruptures earlier than the crust, and is confirmed by a semi-analytical prediction of melt volume over margin width. The results presented here show that the effect of increased mantle temperature at wide volcanic margins is likely over-estimated, and demonstrate that the large volumes of magmatism at volcanic rifted margin can be explained by depth-dependent extension and very moderate excess mantle potential temperature in the order of 50-80 °C, significantly smaller than previously suggested.

How to cite: Lu, G. and Huismans, R.: Melt volume at Atlantic volcanic rifted margins controlled by depth-dependent extension and mantle temperature, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9420, 2022.

EGU22-9480 | Presentations | TS6.1

Permian-Triassic rifts of the West Siberian basin: evidence of voluminous felsic volcanic activity 

Maria Smirnova, Anton Latyshev, Ivan Panchenko, Petr Kulikov, Alexey Khotylev, and Rustam Garipov

Permian-Triassic rifts of the West Siberian basin compose one of the largest continental rift systems in the world. The Koltogor-Urengoy and Khudosey rifts of meridional strike are the main structures in the eastern part of the basin and are filled mainly by basaltic lavas with clastic sediments. However, in the central part of the West Siberian plate felsic lavas are widespread along with mafic volcanics. Here we present the detailed data on composition of lavas, whole-rock geochemistry, geophysical features and U-Pb ages from the Frolov-Krasnoleninsky region in the central part of the West Siberian basin.

Within the studied region, Permian-Triassic rifts of NW and NE strike are predominant. The main structure is Rogozhnikov-Nazym graben of NW strike, composed of rhyolite-dacitic lavas.  According to the seismic data, this volcanic area comprises multiple local eruptive centers (1-5 km in diameter). Lavas constitute the major part of the volcanic pile, while tuffs are subordinate (up to 15%). Deep boreholes did not reach the base of volcanic sequence, but its thickness exceed 0.5 km.

The main geochemical features of the Rogozhnikov-Nazym volcanics are: 1) acidic composition and increased alkali content; 2) signs of supra-subduction setting: Ta-Nb and Pb anomalies; 3) high ratios of all incompatible trace elements. According to these features, volcanic rocks of the Rogozhnikov-Nazym graben were formed in the setting of post-collisional extension. Furthermore, coeval felsic lavas are widespread in smaller structures of the Frolov-Krasnoleninskiy region and demonstrate similar geochemical characteristics.

We obtained 9 U-Pb (SHRIMP) ages from felsic lavas of the Rogozhnikov-Nazym graben and other rift structures. All samples yielded ages in the range from 254±2 to 248.2±1.3 Ma (Late Permian – Early Triassic). Thus, volcanic activity in the Frolov-Krasnoleninsky region was nearly synchronous to the main phase of Siberian Traps magmatism in the Siberian platform.

Volcanic rocks of the Frolov-Krasnoleninsky region constitute rifts of NW strike (mainly felsic lavas, including the Rogozhnikov-Nazym graben) and NE strike (mainly mafic lavas, geochemically similar to the Siberian Traps basalts). We suggest that orientation of rifts inherits two conjugate strike-slip fault systems, which mark the W-E compression during the preceding collisional event in the Early-Middle Permian, and the mechanism of extension is similar to pull-apart model. The contrasting composition of volcanics can be caused by different-depth zones of magma generation.

The Permian-Triassic volcanics are overlain by continental coal-bearing coarse-grained volcanoclastic sediments of the Chelyabinsk Group (Middle Triassic – Early Jurassic). These deposits fill the local depressions in the paleotopography. The Middle Jurassic clastic Tyumen Formation overlays both volcanic rocks and Chelyabinsk Group, covers almost the entire territory of the Frolov-Krasnoleninsky region and marks the initiation of post-rift subsidence in the West Siberian basin.

How to cite: Smirnova, M., Latyshev, A., Panchenko, I., Kulikov, P., Khotylev, A., and Garipov, R.: Permian-Triassic rifts of the West Siberian basin: evidence of voluminous felsic volcanic activity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9480, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9480, 2022.

EGU22-9962 | Presentations | TS6.1

Crustal architecture under the NE Brazil syn-rift basins from receiver functions: Evidence of deep magmatic processes. 

Jordi Julià, Miro Döring, and Thabita Barbosa

NE Brazil is scarred by a number of aborted rift basins that developed from the same extensional stresses that lead to the opening of the South Atlantic. Extension started in Late Jurassic times, with the formation of an AfroBrazilian Depression south of the Patos Lineament, and continued through the Early Berriasian along two NS trending axes of deformation: Recôncavo-Tucano-Jatobá (RTJ) and Gabon-Sergipe-Alagoas (GSA). In the Late Berriasian - Early Barremian, rifting jumped North of the Pernambuco Lineament to progress along the NE-SW trending Cariri-Potiguar (CP) axis. In the Late Barremian, approximately coinciding with the opening of the Equatorial Atlantic, rifting aborted along the RTJ and CP axes and continued along the GBA trend eventually resulting in continental break-up. Extension-related magmatic activity seems to have been restricted to break-up along the marginal basins, although dyke swarms bordering the Potiguar basin (Rio Ceará-Mirim) seem to be associated to early extension stages in NE Brazil and three subparallel dolerite dykes, with K-Ar dates of 105±9 Ma, were inferred indirectly from aeromagnetic and outcrop data East of the RTJ axis. Aiming at better understanding the structure and evolution of the syn-rift basins of NE Brazil, a total of 20 seismic stations were deployed between October 2018 and January 2021 along the CP and RTJ trends. The deployment, funded by the national oil company Petrobras, included both broadband and short-period stations borrowed from the Pool de Equipamentos Geofísicos do Brasil. These stations complemented a number of permanent broadband stations belonging to the Rede Sismográfica do Brasil. Receiver functions were obtained for each of the seismic stations from teleseismic P-wave recordings and S-wave velocity models were developed from their joint inversion with dispersion velocities from an independent tomographic study. In the RTJ basins, our results show that the crust is about 41 km thick and displays a thick (5-8 km) layer of fast-velocity material (> 4.0 km/s) at its bottom; in the Potiguar basin, our results show a thinner crust of about 30-35 km underlain by an anomalously slow (4.3-4.4 km/s) uppermost mantle. We argue that those anomalous layers are the result of syn-rift and/or post-rift magmatic intrusions, which would have had the effect of increasing velocity at lower crustal levels under the RTJ basins and decreasing velocity at uppermost mantle depths under the Potiguar basin. If correct, ou interpretation would imply that, in spite of an overall lack of evidence at shallow levels, deep magmatic processes have played a role in the formation and evolution of the syn-rift basins of NE Brazil.

How to cite: Julià, J., Döring, M., and Barbosa, T.: Crustal architecture under the NE Brazil syn-rift basins from receiver functions: Evidence of deep magmatic processes., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9962, 2022.

EGU22-10866 | Presentations | TS6.1

Backarc rifting as a response to a crustal collapse at the western Gondwana margin: The Triassic tectonic setting of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, Northern Andes of Colombia 

Michael Andrés Avila Paez, Andreas Kammer, Camilo Andres Conde Carvajal, Alejandro Piraquive Bermudez, and Cristhian Nicolas Gomez Plata

Since the middle Triassic the long-lived convergent margin of western Gondwana evolved from a relatively steeply inclined into a flat lying slab setting that combined an extensional regime on the backarc side with the telescoping of crustal slices at the continental margin. In the Northern Andes the opening of Late Triassic basins is practically contemporaneous with the outwedging of lower crustal slices, that often alternate with intrusive sheets of S-type granites and mark the limit to a  non-metamorphic roof. A tectonic coupling between backarc collapse and the escape of lower crustal slices can be examined in detail in the northwestern flank of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, a northern-most outlier of the North Andean basement. Remnants of a Late Triassic graben fill attest here to a block tilted toward the hinterland. Its tri-partite sedimentary sequence recycled material sourced from external parts of the continental margin. The basement of a more foreland-oriented block of the Sevilla belt is affected by outward-verging folds, which have formed under greenschist facies conditions in its upper and lower amphibolite conditions in its lower part. The succeeding Inner Santa Marta Metamorphic Belt consists of a stack of high-grade metamorphic basement slices separated by siliciclastic wedges metamorphosed under lower amphibolite conditions. The soles of the basement slices consist of migmatites with remobilized granitic pods and resulting folds oriented in a dip-slip direction. These structures are overprinted by a flattening and a second migmatitic event, which records peak P-T conditions of a lowest crustal level. Accordingly, they contain inclusions of ultramafic rocks. The time-equivalent correspondence between a supracrustal  backarc extension and a foreland-directed stacking of crustal slices suggests some similarity to the model  of a low-viscosity channel of a thickened orogenic crust. An important difference of this flat-slab setting resides, however, in a wholesale mobility of a strongly heated crust that constitutes the backarc and frontal position of this active margin.

How to cite: Avila Paez, M. A., Kammer, A., Conde Carvajal, C. A., Piraquive Bermudez, A., and Gomez Plata, C. N.: Backarc rifting as a response to a crustal collapse at the western Gondwana margin: The Triassic tectonic setting of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, Northern Andes of Colombia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10866, 2022.

EGU22-11260 | Presentations | TS6.1

Rifted margins classification and forcing parameters 

Francois Sapin

Rifted margins are the result of the successful process of thinning and breakup of continents leading to the formation of new oceanic lithosphere. Observations on rifted margins are now integrating an increasing amount of multi-channel seismic data and drilling of several Continent-Ocean Transitions. Based on large scale geometries and domains observed on high-quality long-offset seismic lines, we illustrate a simple classification based on mechanical behavior and magmatic production. Therefore, rifted margins are not divided into opposing types, but described as a combination and continuum that can evolve through time and space from ductile to brittle mechanical behavior on one hand and from magma-poor to magma-rich on the other hand.

For instance, margins such as the Mauritania-Senegal Basin evolve north to south from a magma-poor to a magma-rich margin. Margins such as the Vøring one suffered different rifting episodes evolving from ductile deformation in the Devonian to more brittle and magma-poor rifting in the Cretaceous prior to a final magma-rich breakup in the Paleogene.

Thanks to these examples and to some others, we show the variability of the rifted margins worldwide but also along strike of a single segment and through time along a single margin in order to explore and illustrate some of the forcing parameters that can control the initial rifting conditions but also their evolution through time.

How to cite: Sapin, F.: Rifted margins classification and forcing parameters, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11260, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11260, 2022.

The breakup of Pangaea in Early Mesozoic times initiated first in the Central Atlantic region, where Triassic to Early Jurassic lithosphere extension led to continental breakup and oceanic accretion. The Central Atlantic rifted margins of NW Africa and eastern North America exhibit complex along-strike variations in structural configuration, crustal geometries, and magmatic budget at breakup. Quantifying these lateral changes is essential to understand the tectonic and geodynamic processes that dominated rifting and continental breakup. The existing seismic refraction lines along the African side and its American conjugate provide good constraints on the 2D crustal architecture of several Central Atlantic margins. However, they are insufficient to quantify the ambiguous lateral variations.

This work examines the central segment of the Moroccan Atlantic margin, which is named here the Sidi Ifni-Tan Tan margin. Using 2D seismic reflection and well data, we quantify the stratigraphic and structural architecture of the margin. We then use this to constrain 2D and 3D gravity models, to predict crustal thickness and types. Ultimately, our results are integrated with previous findings from the conjugate Nova Scotia margin, on the Canadian side, to propose a rift to drift model for this segment of the Central Atlantic and discuss the tectonic processes that dominated rifting and decided the fate of continental breakup.

How to cite: Gouiza, M.: Rift to drift evolution and crustal structure of the Central Atlantic: the Sidi Ifni-Nova Scotia conjugate margins, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11336, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11336, 2022.

EGU22-11973 | Presentations | TS6.1

Spatial and temporal variation of magmatism in the East African Rift System: influence of tectonics and different mantle domains 

Eleonora Braschi, Simone Tommasini, Giacomo Corti, and Andrea Orlando

The East African Rift System (EARS) is the classic example of an active continental rift associated with extension, deformation, lithosphere thinning, and generation of magmas from different mantle domains and depths. Magmatism and tectonics have always been closely linked and their mutual relationships concern many processes such as the kinematics and rates of extension, the passive versus active role of mantle upwelling and magma genesis. In addition, the spatial and temporal variations of the geochemical signature of magmas varies in response to different mantle domains contributing to their genesis (subcontinental lithosphere, asthenosphere and deeper mantle sources).

In this study we carefully screened an exhaustive geochemical database of basalts (including authors’ unpublished data) emplaced in the EARS to decipher the possible connection between different mantle domains, and the evolution and tectonic characteristics of the EARS. The geochemical data were subdivided according to spatial and temporal criteria: from a spatial point of view, the samples were ascribed to five groups, namely Afar, Ethiopia, Turkana depression, Kenya and Tanzania. From a temporal point of view, the magmatic activity of the EARS was subdivided into three main temporal sequences: 45-25 Ma, 25-10 Ma and 10-0 Ma.

The geochemical signature and radiogenic isotopes (Sr, Nd, Pb) of the selected basalts reveal significant spatial and temporal variations and permits to place important constraints on the contribution of subcontinental lithosphere, asthenosphere, and lower mantle in magma genesis

How to cite: Braschi, E., Tommasini, S., Corti, G., and Orlando, A.: Spatial and temporal variation of magmatism in the East African Rift System: influence of tectonics and different mantle domains, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11973, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11973, 2022.

EGU22-12619 | Presentations | TS6.1

Passive margin asymmetry and its polarity in the presence of a craton 

Raghu Gudipati, Marta Pérez-Gussinyé, Miguel Andres-Martinez, Mario Neto-Araujo, and Jason Phipps Morgan

When continental lithosphere is extended to break-up it forms two conjugate passive margins. In many instances, these margins are asymmetric: while one is wide and extensively faulted, the conjugate thins more abruptly and exhibits little faulting. Recent studies have suggested that this asymmetry results from the formation of an oceanward-dipping sequential normal fault array and rift migration leading to the observed geometry of asymmetric margins. Numerical models have shown that fault sequentiality arises as a result of asymmetric uplift of the hot mantle towards the hanging wall of the active fault. The preferential localization of strain reinforced by strain weakening effects is random and can happen on either conjugate. However, along the long stretch of the South Atlantic margins, from the Camamu-Gabon to the North Santos-South Kwanza conjugates, the polarity can be very well correlated with the distance of the rift to nearby cratonic lithosphere. Here, we use numerical experiments to show that the presence of a thick cratonic root inhibits asthenospheric flow from underneath the craton towards the adjacent fold belt, while flow from underneath the fold belt towards the craton is favoured. This enhances and promotes sequential faulting and rift migration towards the craton and resulting in a wide faulted margin on the fold belt and a narrow conjugate margin on the craton side, thereby determining the polarity of asymmetry, as observed in nature.

How to cite: Gudipati, R., Pérez-Gussinyé, M., Andres-Martinez, M., Neto-Araujo, M., and Phipps Morgan, J.: Passive margin asymmetry and its polarity in the presence of a craton, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12619, 2022.

EGU22-12955 | Presentations | TS6.1

Relative continent/mid-ocean ridge elevation: a reference case for isostasy in geodynamics 

Thomas Theunissen, Ritske S. Huismans, Gang Lu, and Nicolas Riel

The choice of crustal and mantle densities in numerical geodynamic models is usually based on convention. The isostatic component of the topography is, however, in most if not all cases not calibrated to fit observations resulting in not very well constrained elevations. The density distribution on Earth is not easy to constrain because it involves multiple variables (temperature, pressure, composition, and deformation). We provide a review and global analysis of the topography of the Earth showing that elevation of stable continents and active mid-ocean ridges far from hotspots on average is +400 m and -2750 m respectively. We show that density values for the crust and mantle, commonly used for isostatic modeling result in highly inaccurate prediction of topography. We use thermodynamic calculations to constrain the density distribution of the continental lithospheric mantle, sub-lithospheric mantle, the mid-ocean ridge mantle, and review data on crustal density. We couple the thermo-dynamic consistent density calculations with 2-D forward geodynamic modelling including melt prediction and calibrate crustal and mantle densities that match the observed elevation difference. Our results can be used as a reference case for geodynamic modeling that accurately fits the relative elevation between continents and mid-ocean ridges consistent with geophysical observations and thermodynamic calculations. 

How to cite: Theunissen, T., Huismans, R. S., Lu, G., and Riel, N.: Relative continent/mid-ocean ridge elevation: a reference case for isostasy in geodynamics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12955, 2022.

EGU22-13043 | Presentations | TS6.1

Characterizing mantle deformation processes during the rift-to-drift transition at magma-poor margins 

Nicholas Montiel, Emmanuel Massini, Luc Lavier, and Othmar Müntener

A holistic understanding of rift initiation, evolution, and variation is made complicated by the difficulties of deep seismic imaging, limited modern examples of continental rifting, and few accessible outcrops of fossil rifted margins. In particular, The temporal structural and rheological evolution of the mantle lithosphere during riftingis poorly constrained. The mantle lithosphere rheology controls lithospheric strength at initiation, but how deformation is partitioned between the crust and mantle,  and how the paths for melt migration from the asthenosphere to the rift surface evolve during rifting is fundamental for our understanding of the rift-to-drift evolution .
Here, we use elastoplastic-viscoelastoplastic modeling in concert with published deep seismic profiles of Atlantic rifted margins and geological insights from the Lanzo peridotite outcrops in the Alps to propose a new mode of extensional tectonics in the subcontinental mantle. We run a series of dynamic models varying initial conditions and mechanisms of deformation localization in the mantle lithosphere consistent with mechanisms of ductile shear zone formation observed at slow spreading centers. Models and geophysical surveys show homologous, sigmoidal reflectors in the mantle, a reversal of fault vergence as seafloor spreading develops, exhumation of the mantle, and increasing magmatic accretion. Geological evidence, along with the coincidence of magmatic accretion and extensional structures in the mantle, suggests that faults in the mantle may serve as conduits for melt, resulting in bright reflectors on seismic profiles.

How to cite: Montiel, N., Massini, E., Lavier, L., and Müntener, O.: Characterizing mantle deformation processes during the rift-to-drift transition at magma-poor margins, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13043, 2022.

EGU22-382 | Presentations | GD5.2

Correlation slab heterogeneity and volcanism in Kamchatka arc 

Olga Bergal-Kuvikas

The correlation of subducted plate parameters with generated volcanism was studied along the Kamchatka arc. Increased slab age controls dip angle (25-45o) and length of the seismic zone (200-700 km slab depth)  from the north (~530N) to the south (~490N) of the Kamchatka arc. All listed above parameters generate various aged volcanic belts with different parameters of volcanism. The natural boundary between various aged slabs is on ~530N, on the extension Avachinsky transform fault. It divides the Kamchatka arc on Southern Kamchatka with slab age ~ 103-105 Ma and Eastern volcanic belt, Central Kamchatkan Depression with slab age ~ 87-92 Ma. Complicated evolution and various ages of the slab control magmatism along the Kamchatka arc. Basic-intermediate magma compositions dominantly characterized Quaternary-Pliocene volcanoes in Central Kamchatkan Depression. In contrast, Neogene-Quaternary volcanism on Southern Kamchatka represents by strong explosions of acidic magmas (Gordeev, Bergal-Kuvikas, 2022).

Monogenetic volcanism marked a Malko-Petropavlovsk zone of transverse dislocations (MPZ), which is located on the extension Avachinsky transform fault. Monogenetic cinder cones in MPZ are randomly distributed along to these long-lived rupture zones. Here I present new geochemical and isotopic results of monogenetic volcanism in MPZ. Based on whole rock and trace element geochemistry, Pb-Sr-Nd isotopic ratios of monogenetic cinder cones magmas were shown to tap the enriched mantle source (low 143Nd/144Nd isotopic ratios (0.512959-0.512999), as variated 87Sr/86Sr (0.703356-0.703451) and 206Pb/204Pb (18.30-18.45), 208Pb/207Pb (38.00-38.12) isotopic ratios).  High Nb/Yb and La/Yb ratios, without significant inputs of the slab`s components (the lowest Ba, Th contents), indicate decompression melting predominately (Bergal-Kuvikas et al., 202X). Therefore, a combination of geophysical and geochemical methods enable us to conclude that monogenetic volcanism in MPZ   mark a natural boundary between various aged slab on Avachinsky transform fault. Various aged slabs under Southern Kamchatka and the Eastern volcanic belt generate volcanism with different magma compositions and ages of volcanoes.

This research was supported by Russian Science Foundation (grant number 21-17-00049,https://rscf.ru/project/21-17-00049/).

References

Bergal-Kuvikas O.V., Bindeman I.N., Chugaev A.V., Larionova Yu. O., Perepelov A.V., Khubaeva O.R. Pleistocene-Holocene monogenetic volcanism at Malko-Petropavlovsk zone of transverse dislocations on Kamchatka: geochemical features and genesis // Pure and Applied Geophysics. Special Issue: Geophysical Studies of Geodynamics and Natural Hazards in the Northwestern Pacific Region (in review)

Gordeev, E.I., Bergal-Kuvikas O.V. (2022). Structure of subduction zone and volcanism on Kamchatka. Doklady of the Earth Sciences. 2. 502. P. 26-30. 10.31857/S2686739722020086

 

 

 

How to cite: Bergal-Kuvikas, O.: Correlation slab heterogeneity and volcanism in Kamchatka arc, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-382, 2022.

EGU22-1293 | Presentations | GD5.2

The maximum depth of the subduction channel in modern subduction zones 

Hans-Joachim Massonne

The subduction channel is located directly above a downgoing oceanic plate and forms by dehydration of this plate. The ascending water-rich fluids react with the mantle to hydrous minerals such as chlorite and amphibole. This process rheologically weakens the mantle and reduces its density so that an upwards-directed mass flow is continuously generated as long as the oceanic plate is subducted. However at great depth, the fluids ascending from the subducting plate do not produce hydrous minerals anymore due to too high pressure-temperature (P-T) conditions. Thus, the question arises how high can these conditions become in order to still generate such hydrous minerals in the mantle. To answer this question, thermodynamic modelling was undertaken with PERPLE_X using different data sets of Holland and Powell (1998, 2011), corresponding solid-solution models for relevant minerals, and the bulk-rock composition of a common lherzolite + 2.5 wt% H2O. In addition, results of experiments at high pressure on the P-T stability of hydrous minerals such as chlorite were considered.

Under the assumption of a relatively steeply and fast dipping oceanic plate, the geothermal gradient at the interface between this plate and the overlying mantle wedge should be below 7.5 °C/km (100 km = 3.2 GPa). At such low gradients, that are common in modern subduction zones, chlorite is the only (nominally) hydrous mineral in the lherzolite considered because amphibole shows an upper pressure limit, for example 2.3 GPa using model cAmph(G), in the calculation results. Calculations with the data set of Holland and Powell (1998) lead to results at pressures >3 GPa, which are, due to the used equation-of-state for minerals, incompatible with experimental results, whereas the results produced with the more recent data set (Holland and Powell, 2011) are compatible. Along gradients of 7.5, 5, and 3.5 °C/km, chlorite decomposes to form garnet in lherzolite at about 740 (3.15 GPa), 660 (4.3 GPa), and 570 °C (5.3 GPa), respectively. These temperatures are 60-80 °C lower than calculated for the reaction of chlorite + enstatite = forsterite + pyrope + H2O in the system MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O.

The aforementioned P-T conditions limit the subduction channel towards great depths, which should be less than 160 km (5.2 GPa) even at very low thermal gradients, and are compatible with peak P-T conditions of many eclogites exhumed in the subduction channel from the surface of the downgoing oceanic plate. A few exceptions were reported which suggest exhumation of eclogite from depths > 200 km (e.g., Ye et al., 2000). The reason for these greater depths could be another exhumation mechanism. However, a misinterpretation of so-called exsolution lamellae in eclogitic minerals, taken as evidence for unusual mineral compositions and, thus, depths > 200 km, is more likely (see Liu and Massonne, 2022).

Holland, T.J.B., Powell, R., 1998. J. Metamorph. Geol. 16, 309-343.

Holland, T.J.B., Powell, R., 2011. J. Metamorph. Geol. 29, 333–383.

Liu, P., Massonne, H.-J., 2022. J. Metamorph. Geol., doi: 10.1111/jmg.12649

Ye, K., et al., 2000. Nature 407, 734–736.

How to cite: Massonne, H.-J.: The maximum depth of the subduction channel in modern subduction zones, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1293, 2022.

EGU22-2400 | Presentations | GD5.2

Segmentation of subducting oceanic plates by brittle-ductile damage 

Taras Gerya, David Bercovici, and Thorsten Becker

Subducting oceanic plates experience intense normal faulting during bending that accommodates the transition from horizontal to downward motion at the outer rise at subduction trenches. We investigated numerically the consequences of the plate bending on the mechanical properties of subducting slabs using 2D subduction models in which both brittle and ductile deformation, as well as grain size evolution, are tracked and coupled self-consistently. Numerical results suggest that pervasive brittle-ductile slab damage and segmentation can occur at the outer rise region and under the forearc that strongly affects subsequent evolution of subducting slabs in the mantle. This slab-damage phenomenon explains the subduction dichotomy of strong plates and weak slabs, the development of large-offset normal faults near trenches and the occurrence of segmented seismic velocity anomalies and interfaces imaged within subducted slabs. Furthermore, brittle-viscously damaged slabs show a strong tendency for slab breakoff at elevated mantle temperatures that may have destabilized continued oceanic subduction and plate tectonics in the Precambrian (Gerya et al., 2021).

Gerya, T.V., Bercovici, D., Becker, T.W. (2021) Dynamic slab segmentation due to brittle-ductile damage in the outer rise. Nature, 599, 245-250.

How to cite: Gerya, T., Bercovici, D., and Becker, T.: Segmentation of subducting oceanic plates by brittle-ductile damage, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2400, 2022.

EGU22-3822 | Presentations | GD5.2

Subduction dynamics through the mantle transition zone in the presence of a weak asthenospheric layer 

Nestor Cerpa, Karin Sigloch, Fanny Garel, Rhodri Davies, and Arnauld Heuret

Plate kinematics in the vicinity of subduction zones, as well as seismic tomography provide insights into the deep dynamics of subducting slabs. Velocities at which subducting plates are consumed at the trench (the subduction velocities) typically exceed 3–4 cm/yr at present-day. Absolute trench velocities (relative to a lower-mantle reference frame) are lower, between -2 and 2 cm/yr [Heuret and Lallemand, 2005]. This implies that the “accommodation space” created by the slab rollback associated with lateral trench migration is not nearly sufficient for accommodating the length of incoming slab in the horizontal dimension. In the vertical dimension, even the fastest estimates for slab sinking rates over long time scales amount to only a fraction of 3–4 cm/yr [Butterworth et al. 2014, van der Meer et al. 2010, Sigloch & Mihalynuk 2013]. Hence the rates at which the lithosphere typically subducts cannot be accommodated by fast vertical sinking either. Seismic tomography confirms the “traffic jam” conditions for slabs in the mantle that are implied by these numbers, with slab thickening imaged in and beneath the mantle transition zone (MTZ). These highly visible, thickened, slabs have been interpreted as the result of folding [Ribe et al., 2007], and their relative localization (massive,  near-vertical “slab walls”) supports the notion of near-stationary trenches over long time scales [Sigloch and Mihalynuk, 2013]. 

Buoyancy-driven analog and numerical models of subduction have commonly produced subduction and trench velocities that differ from the first-order observations above. Their subduction velocities typically drop below 1-2 cm/yr once the modelled slab enters the high-viscosity lower mantle, and their trench migration velocities remain almost equal to subduction velocities, thus accommodating the slab mainly in the horizontal direction. In addition, these models tend to produce trench retreat and slab “rollback” , unless the latter is very weak and/or the overriding plate is very strong [Goes et al., 2017]. These modelling results have led to the conclusion that near-vertical slab sinking and folding at the MTZ is an end-member regime restricted to very specific subduction set-ups. 

We have added a weak asthenospheric layer to typical 2-D thermo-mechanical models of subduction zones with a complex rheology [e. g., Garel et al., 2014], which partly reconciles the models and the observations. A weak asthenosphere appears as an intuitive candidate for increasing subduction velocity because a reduced mantle drag at the base of the subducting plate lowers the mantle’s resistance to the plate’s trench-ward motion. We further found that the models with a weak asthenospheric layer lessens the trench motion and thus tend to produce prominent vertical folding of slabs at the MTZ. Subduction velocities remain higher than trench velocities long after the slab reaches the MTZ, so that 300-to-400-km wide “slab walls” are continuously produced in the lower mantle over a relatively wide range of model parameters. The presence of a weak asthenosphere has often been speculated to explain seismic properties beneath oceanic plates, but seldom modelled. This study contributes to a quantification of its potential effects on subduction dynamics. 

How to cite: Cerpa, N., Sigloch, K., Garel, F., Davies, R., and Heuret, A.: Subduction dynamics through the mantle transition zone in the presence of a weak asthenospheric layer, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3822, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3822, 2022.

EGU22-4233 | Presentations | GD5.2

Global compilation of double seismic zones and their dependence on the intraslab stress field 

Christian Sippl, Timm John, Stefan Schmalholz, and Armin Dielforder

Double seismic zones (DSZs), parallel planes of intermediate-depth earthquakes inside oceanic slabs, have been observed in a number of subduction zones and may well be a ubiquitous feature of downgoing oceanic plates. Early focal mechanism observations from Japan and Alaska have shown downdip compressive events in the upper and downdip extensive events in the lower plane of the DSZ, which was interpreted as a signature of plate unbending at these depths. Such a pattern of compressive over extensive events has become a hallmark of DSZ seismicity, and some models of DSZ seismogenesis explicitely rely on an unbending-dominated intraslab stress field as a mechanism for deep slab hydration.

In this study, we show that the intraslab stress field in the depth range of DSZs is much more variable than previously thought. Compiling DSZ locations and mechanisms from literature, we observe that the “classical” pattern of compressive over extensive events, as in NE Japan, is only observed at about half of the DSZ locations around the globe. The occurrence of extensive mechanisms across both planes accounts for most other regions, whereas a “bending signature” of extensive over compressive events is not widely observed at all. To obtain an independent estimate of the (un)bending state of slabs at intermediate depths, we compute (un)bending estimates from slab geometries taken from the slab2 compilation of slab surface depths. We find no clear prevalence of slab unbending at intermediate depths, and the occurrence of DSZ seismicity does not appear to be limited to regions of slab unbending. Taking high-resolution focal mechanism information from the Northern Chile subduction zone as an example, we conclude that the intraslab stress field in subduction zones is primarily a superposition of (un)bending stresses and downdip extensive in-plane stresses. Depending on the sign (bending or unbending) and the relative contributions of these two principal stresses, an unbending signature as in NE Japan or a purely extensive pattern of focal mechanisms as in Northern Chile can emerge. We also consider possible additional contributing stresses that may further modify the intraslab stress field, such as friction along the plate interface and volume loss due to metamorphic phase changes.

How to cite: Sippl, C., John, T., Schmalholz, S., and Dielforder, A.: Global compilation of double seismic zones and their dependence on the intraslab stress field, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4233, 2022.

EGU22-4261 | Presentations | GD5.2

3D numerical modeling of suction-induced subduction initiation at passive margins 

Marzieh Baes, Stephan Sobolev, Andrea Hampel, and Anne Glerum

Conversion of a passive margin, which is the transition between oceanic and continental lithosphere formed by sedimentation above an ancient rift, into an active converging plate boundary is still ambiguous. According to the Wilson Cycle (Wilson, 1966), which describes the repeated opening and closing of the oceans, the collapse of a passive margin is a key factor in the closing phase of the Wilson Cycle. However, the lack of any Cenozoic examples of conversion of passive margins into subduction zones and the existence of old oceanic plates along Atlantic passive margins indicate the difficulty of subduction initiation at passive margins. Due to lack of observational evidence, modeling studies play a key role in understanding the kinematics and dynamics of transforming a passive into active margin. During the last decades, they proposed several facilitating mechanisms to collapse a passive margin such as sediment loading (Cloetingh et al., 1982), water weakening (Regenauer-Lieb et al., 2001), STEP faults (Subduction-Transform-Edge-Propagator; Govers and Wortel, 2005) near passive margins (Baes et al., 2011), mantle suction forces derived from detached slabs and/or neighboring subduction zones (Baes and Sobolev, 2017), convergence forces induced from neighboring plates (Zhong and Li, 2019) and propagation of subduction along passive margins (Baes and Sobolev, 2017; Zhou et al., 2020).

 In this study, we extend the work of  Baes and Sobolev (2017) by using 3D models. As breaking a 3D lithosphere is more difficult than a 2D plate, 3D numerical models may lead to different conclusions than those of 2d ones. To study the effect of mantle suction flow on the destabilisation of passive margins, we set up 3D models, using the ASPECT finite element code (Kronbichler et al., 2012). We investigate the effect of different parameters such as the magnitude, spatial size and location of suction flow, the age of oceanic lithosphere and the existence of a STEP (Subduction-Transform-Edge-Propagator; Govers and Wortel, 2005) fault near margin. Our preliminary results show over-thrusting of continental crust from the earliest stage of deformation. This continued over-thrusting along with suction force, which imposes shear stresses below the lithosphere, causes breaking of the oceanic plate and its sinking into the mantle and eventually subduction initiation at the passive margin. The time of subduction initiation, which depends on several factors such as magnitude and location of the suction force, is more than 30 Myr indicating difficulty in the converting passive margins into converging plate boundaries. We believe that subduction initiation at some Atlantic passive margins such as those in the north of the South Sandwich subduction zone, southwest of the Iberia and north of the Caribbean region, where considerable suction forces induced by sinking slabs or neighboring subduction zones are available, will occur in a few tens of million years.

 

References:

Baes et al., 2011. Geophys. J. Int.

Baes, and Sobolev, 2017. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst.

Cloetingh et al., 1982. Nature.

Govers and Wortel, 2005, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett.

Kronbichler et al., 2012, Geophys. J. Int.

Regenauer-Lieb et al., 2001. Sci.

Wilson, 1966, Nature

Zhou et al., 2020. Sci. Adv.

Zhong and Li, 2019. Geophys. Res. Lett.

 

How to cite: Baes, M., Sobolev, S., Hampel, A., and Glerum, A.: 3D numerical modeling of suction-induced subduction initiation at passive margins, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4261, 2022.

EGU22-4399 | Presentations | GD5.2

Fluid migration, deep dehydration, and melt generation in the Lesser Antilles subduction zone 

Lidong Bie, Stephen Hicks, Andreas Rietbrock, Saskia Goes, Jenny Collier, Catherine Rychert, Nicholas Harmon, and Benjamin Maunder and the VoiLA Consortium

Volatiles play a pivotal role in subduction zones dynamics, associated geological hazards and mineralization, yet their pathways remain partially understood. The Lesser Antilles subduction zone can yield insights to volatile recycling as a global end-member, where old oceanic lithosphere formed by slow spreading slowly subducts. Here we use seismograms from local earthquakes recorded by a temporary deployment of ocean-bottom seismometers in the fore- and back-arc during the VoiLA (Volatile Recycling in the Lesser Antilles) experiment to characterize the 3-D properties of the slab, back-arc and mantle wedge in the north-central Lesser Antilles subduction zone. Along the top of the slab, defined by the underlying Wadati-Benioff seismicity, we find low P-wave velocity extending to 130–150 km depth, deeper than expected for magmatic oceanic crust. The deep low velocities together with high Vp/Vs at 60–80 km and 120–150 km depth are consistent with a significantly tectonised and serpentinised slab top, as expected for lithosphere formed by slow spreading. The most prominent high Vp/Vs anomalies in the slab correlates with two projected fracture zones and the obliquely subducting boundary between Proto-Caribbean and Equatorial Atlantic lithosphere, indicating these structures enhance hydration of the oceanic lithosphere and subsequent dehydration when subducted. Deep dehydration of slab mantle serpentinite is evidenced by high Vp/Vs anomalies in the back-arc offshore Guadeloupe and Dominica. Right above the slab, the asthenospheric mantle wedge is imaged beneath the back-arc as high Vp/Vs and moderate Vp feature, indicative for fluids rising from the slab through the overlaying cold boundary layer. The fluids might be dragged down with the subducting slab before rising upwards to induce melting further to the west. The variation in seismic properties along the subducting slab and in the back-arc mantle wedge shows that the changes in hydration of the incoming plate govern the dehydration processes at depth. The highest Vp/Vs anomaly in the back-arc west of Dominica at depth greater than 120 km, together with the anomaly at 60–80 km depth on the slab east of the island, appear to track the source and path of excess volatiles that may explain the relatively high magmatic output observed on the north-central islands of the Lesser Antilles arc.

How to cite: Bie, L., Hicks, S., Rietbrock, A., Goes, S., Collier, J., Rychert, C., Harmon, N., and Maunder, B. and the VoiLA Consortium: Fluid migration, deep dehydration, and melt generation in the Lesser Antilles subduction zone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4399, 2022.

Intermediate-depth earthquakes in many subduction zones occur in two distinct layers, forming an upper and a lower seismic zone separated vertically by an aseismic or weakly seismic region. These Double Seismic Zones (DSZs) have been related to dehydration reactions in the downgoing crust and mantle lithosphere. Notably, intermediate-depth seismicity in Northern Chile shows a pattern of intraslab seismicity which is quite different from a conventional DSZ. Here, two parallel seismicity planes are present in the updip part of the slab, but at a depth of ∼80–90 km, there is a sharp transition to a highly seismogenic volume of 25–30 km thickness, which corresponds to a closing of the gap between the two seismicity planes.

While such an observation is unique to Northern Chile, understanding the processes behind the formation of this feature should provide important constraints on the mineral processes that govern seismicity in DSZs as well as the role and involvement of fluids. As seismic velocities contain important information about mineralogy and fluid content, we aim at a high-resolution characterization of the seismic wavespeeds of the Northern Chile subduction zone, mainly focusing on the downgoing Nazca slab. We use the seismicity catalog of Sippl et al. (2018) that contains >100,000 earthquakes and 1,200,404 P- and 688,904 S-phase picks for the years 2007 to 2014 to perform local earthquake tomography using the FMTOMO algorithm (Rawlinson et. al., 2006). Data from the seismic stations of the permanent IPOC (Integrated Plate boundary Observatory Chile) deployment in the Northern Chile forearc form the backbone of the dataset, but are complemented by several temporary deployments that span shorter time sequences.

We will present first 3D models of P- and S-wavespeeds from the Northern Chile forearc between about 19°S and 23°S, using a subset of the earthquake catalog mentioned above, as well as images of ray coverage, relocated seismicity and synthetic resolution tests.

The presented seismic velocity distribution will eventually be compared with theoretical wavespeeds that are forward calculated assuming different mineralogical compositions in order to narrow the range of possible reactions that may be occurring at depth.

How to cite: Hassan, N. and Sippl, C.: Towards imaging dehydration reactions in the downgoing Nazca plate with local earthquake tomography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4461, 2022.

EGU22-4774 | Presentations | GD5.2 | Highlight

Subduction invasion of the Atlantic by Mediterranean subduction zones 

João C. Duarte, Nicolas Riel, Boris J.P. Kaus, and Filipe M. Rosas

Subduction invasion has been referred to as the process by which subduction zones from a subducting ocean invade or trigger subduction initiation in a contiguous ocean. This can, in principle, happen in different ways that can vary from a direct migration by rollback along an oceanic corridor connecting the two oceans (e.g., the Gibraltar Arc into the Atlantic) or by polarity reversal across a narrow continental land bridge, potentially involving the collision of an ocean plateau with the pre-existent trench (the Scotia and the Caribbean arcs). This process is important because new subduction zones are difficult to start in the present plate tectonics context and most known examples of initiation seem to be forced by pre-existent subduction zones. The problem is that in internal Atlantic-type oceans there are no pre-existent subduction zones, and therefore, they must be introduced from the outside. Luckily, the Atlantic seems to be just passing through a phase of invasion, as evidenced by the three referred examples. But while the Caribbean and the Scotia arcs are already two fully formed Atlantic-subduction systems, the Gibraltar Arc is currently in the process of migrating between oceanic basins. In the future, the Arc can evolve according to two different scenarios. In the first, the Gibraltar Arc is stuck between Africa and Iberia and the subduction is waning. In the other scenario, after a period of quiescence, the arc manages to go through and invade the Atlantic. In order to understand which is more feasible, we have developed 3D numerical models using the code LaMEM to gain some insights into how this system may evolve. We have simulated the development of the Mediterranean arc-back-arc system, with rollback and the retreat of the subduction zones in a fully dynamic framework (no active kinematic boundaries). Our model shows that under the studied parameters, the Gibraltar subduction zone manages to invade the Atlantic, even in the cases of a very narrow oceanic corridor. However, this led to a very significant decrease in the subduction velocity, suggesting that in the natural prototype, a period of quiescence is expected before the Mediterranean subduction zone manages to go through and invade the Atlantic.

J.C. Duarte and F.M. Rosas acknowledge financial support by FCT through the project UIDB/50019/2020 – Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL)

How to cite: Duarte, J. C., Riel, N., Kaus, B. J. P., and Rosas, F. M.: Subduction invasion of the Atlantic by Mediterranean subduction zones, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4774, 2022.

EGU22-4810 | Presentations | GD5.2

Modelling ridge jumps in back-arc basins at different scales 

Valentina Magni, Nicholas Schliffke, Jeroen van Hunen, Frédéric Gueydan, Mark Allen, John Naliboff, Manel Prada, and Carmen Gaina

The structure of oceanic back-arc basins reflects the dynamics of the subduction zone they are associated with. Often, the basement of these basins is not only composed of oceanic crust, but also of exhumed mantle, fragments of continental crust, intrusive magmatic bodies, and a complex mid-ocean ridge system characterised by distinct relocations of the spreading centre. These features are a direct consequence of the transient nature of subduction zones. Here, we show results from different types of numerical models that aim at understanding how back-arc basins are shaped by subduction dynamics.

We present 3D numerical models of back-arc spreading centre jumps evolving naturally in a homogeneous subduction system surrounded by continents without a trigger event (Schliffke et al., 2022). We find that jumps to a new spreading centre occur when the resistance on the boundary transform faults enabling relative motion of back-arc and neighbouring plates is larger than the resistance to break the overriding plate closer to trench. Time and distance of spreading centres jumps are, thus, controlled by the ratio between the transform fault and overriding plate strengths. We also present results from 2D numerical models of lithospheric extension with asymmetric and time-dependent boundary conditions that simulate multiple phases of extension due to episodic trench retreat (Magni et al., 2021). We show that multiphase extension can result in asymmetric margins, mantle exhumation and continental fragment formations. We find that the duration of the first extensional phase controls the final architecture of the basin. Finally, we show that our models can explain many features observed in present-day and extinct back-arc basins.

Magni, V., Naliboff, J., Prada, M., & Gaina, C. (2021). Ridge Jumps and Mantle Exhumation in Back-Arc Basins. Geosciences, 11(11), 475.

Schliffke, N., van Hunen, J., Gueydan, F., Magni, V., & Allen, M (2022). Episodic back-arc spreading centre jumps controlled by transform fault to overriding plate strength ratio. Accepted for publication in Nature Communications.

 

 

How to cite: Magni, V., Schliffke, N., van Hunen, J., Gueydan, F., Allen, M., Naliboff, J., Prada, M., and Gaina, C.: Modelling ridge jumps in back-arc basins at different scales, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4810, 2022.

EGU22-4976 | Presentations | GD5.2

Plume-induced sinking of the intracontinental lithosphereas a fundamentally new mechanism of subduction initiation. 

Sierd Cloetingh, Alexander Koptev, Istvan Kovacs, Taras Gerya, Anouk Beniest, Ernst Willingshofer, Todd Ehlers, Nevena Andric-Tomasevic, Svetlana Botsyun, Paul Eizenhofer, Thomas Francois, and Fred Beekman

Although many different mechanisms for subduction initiation have been proposed, few of them are viable in terms of agreement with observations and reproducibility in numerical experiments. In particular, it has recently been demonstrated that intra-oceanic subduction triggered by an upwelling mantle plume could contribute greatly to the onset and functioning of plate tectonics in the early Earth and, to a lesser extent, in the modern Earth. In contrast, the onset of intracontinental subduction is still underestimated. Here we review 1) observations demonstrating the upwelling of hot mantle material flanked by sinking proto-slabs of the continental mantle lithosphere, and 2) previously published and new numerical models of plume-induced subduction initiation. Numerical modelling shows that under the condition of a sufficiently thick (> 100 km) continental plate, incipient down thrusting at the level of the lowermost lithospheric mantle can be triggered by plume anomalies with moderate temperatures and without significant strain and/or melt-induced weakening of the overlying rocks. This finding is in contrast to the requirements for plume-induced subduction initiation in oceanic or thin continental lithosphere. Consequently, plume-lithosphere interactions in the continental interior of Paleozoic-Proterozoic (Archean) platforms are the least demanding (and therefore potentially very common) mechanism for triggering subduction-like foundering in Phanerozoic Earth. Our findings are supported by a growing body of new geophysical data collected in a variety of intracontinental settings. A better understanding of the role of intracontinental mantle downthrusting and foundering in global plate tectonics and, in particular, in triggering "classic" oceanic-continental subduction will benefit from further detailed follow-up studies.

How to cite: Cloetingh, S., Koptev, A., Kovacs, I., Gerya, T., Beniest, A., Willingshofer, E., Ehlers, T., Andric-Tomasevic, N., Botsyun, S., Eizenhofer, P., Francois, T., and Beekman, F.: Plume-induced sinking of the intracontinental lithosphereas a fundamentally new mechanism of subduction initiation., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4976, 2022.

EGU22-5045 | Presentations | GD5.2

Depressed 660-km seismic discontinuity beneath cold subduction zones caused by akimotoite-bridgmanite phase transition 

Artem Chanyshev, Takayuki Ishii, Dmitry Bondar, Shrikant Bhat, Eun Jeong Kim, Robert Farla, Keisuke Nishida, Zhaodong Liu, Lin Wang, Ayano Nakajima, Bingmin Yan, Hu Tang, Zhen Chen, Yuji Higo, Yoshinori Tange, and Tomoo Katsura

The 660-km seismic discontinuity (D660) is the boundary between the Earth’s lower mantle and transition zone and is commonly interpreted as the dissociation of (Mg,Fe)2SiO4 ringwoodite to (Mg,Fe)SiO3 bridgmanite plus (Mg,Fe)O ferropericlase (post-spinel transition). Prominent features of D660 are significant depressions to 750 km and multiplicity beneath cold subduction zones. Previous high-pressure experiments provided negative but gentle Clapeyron slopes (−1.3 to −0.5 MPa/K) of the post-spinel transition. Thus, the post-spinel transition cannot interpret the D660 depression. Therefore, another phase transition with a steep negative slope is required, and the akimotoite−bridgmanite transition in (Mg,Fe)SiO3 is one candidate.

In the current study, we determined the boundaries of the post-spinel (RBP) and akimotoite−bridgmanite (AB) phase transitions in the MgO-SiO2 system over a temperature range of 1250–2085 K using advanced multi-anvil techniques with in situ X-ray diffraction. We judged a stable phase assemblage by observing relative increase/decrease in the ratio of coexisting high- and low-pressure assemblages at spontaneously and gradually decreasing pressure and a constant temperature from diffraction intensities. Since this strategy is strictly based on the principle of phase equilibrium, it excludes problems in determining phase stability caused by sluggish kinetics and surface energy.

We found that the RBP boundary has a slightly concave curve, whereas the AB boundary has a steep convex curve. The RBP boundary is located at pressures of 23.2–23.7 GPa in the temperature range of 1250–2040 K. Its slope varies from −0.1 MPa/K at temperatures less than 1700 K to −0.9 MPa/K at 2000 K with an averaged value of −0.5 MPa/K. The slope of the AB boundary gradually changes from −8.1 MPa/K at low temperatures up to 1300 K to −3.2 MPa/K above 1600 K. Based on these findings, we predict that, beneath cold subduction zones, ringwoodite should first dissociate into akimotoite plus periclase, and then akimotoite transforms to bridgmanite with increasing depth; these successive transitions cause the multiple D660. Moreover, the steep negative boundary of the AB transition should result in cold-slab stagnation due to significant upward buoyancy. Our predictions are supported by the seismological observations beneath cold (e.g., Tonga, Izu-Bonin) subduction zones.

How to cite: Chanyshev, A., Ishii, T., Bondar, D., Bhat, S., Kim, E. J., Farla, R., Nishida, K., Liu, Z., Wang, L., Nakajima, A., Yan, B., Tang, H., Chen, Z., Higo, Y., Tange, Y., and Katsura, T.: Depressed 660-km seismic discontinuity beneath cold subduction zones caused by akimotoite-bridgmanite phase transition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5045, 2022.

EGU22-5283 | Presentations | GD5.2

Sulfur transfer along a metasomatized serpentinite-metagabbro contact in the Voltri Massif, Italy 

Esther Schwarzenbach, Linus Streicher, Besim Dragovic, Maria Rosa Scicchitano, Uwe Wiechert, Emmanuel Codillo, Frieder Klein, Horst Marschall, and Marco Scambelluri

Subduction zones provide a key link between the surficial biogenic, atmospheric and hydrospheric geochemical cycles with the Earth’s internal reservoirs. Sediment compaction and dehydration of variably altered oceanic lithosphere during subduction release volatile species (containing e.g., S, H, C, N) to the overlying mantle wedge. In particular, sulfur plays a key role in the formation of porphyry ore deposits and has a major control on redox processes in subduction zones, given it occurs in variable oxidation states from oxidized sulfate (S6+) to reduced sulfide (S2-). Here we studied samples from a contact between serpentinite and partly metasomatized eclogitic metagabbros in the Voltri Massif (Italy). We determined the bulk rock and in situ sulfur isotope composition of pyrite grains and combined this with detailed mineralogic and petrologic investigations. Along the serpentinite-metagabbro contact, the metagabbros are metasomatized to actinolite-chlorite schists and metagabbros rich in epidote and Na- and Na-Ca amphiboles. The serpentinites as well as the actinolite-chlorite schists along the serpentinite-metagabbro contact have very low sulfide contents and provide evidence for the oxidation of sulfides, including formation of Fe-oxides. Sulfur input from the serpentinite-metagabbro contact towards the less metasomatized eclogitic metagabbros is observed. This sulfur input is reflected by bulk rock δ34S values that increase from initially around +1.5‰ in samples distant from the contact to +7.3 to +12.5‰ in samples near the contact. This trend correlates with a general increase in the in situ δ34S values from core to rim of individual pyrite grains. Distinct Co and Ni growth zones in pyrite and variations in the in situ δ34S values indicate multiple phases of pyrite growth during subduction and exhumation of these rocks, with the last stage of pyrite growth clearly related to Mg-metasomatism along the serpentinite-metagabbro contact. Thus, this study provides new insight into processes of sulfur migration during metasomatism of gabbroic rocks within the subducting slab and at the slab–mantle interface.

How to cite: Schwarzenbach, E., Streicher, L., Dragovic, B., Scicchitano, M. R., Wiechert, U., Codillo, E., Klein, F., Marschall, H., and Scambelluri, M.: Sulfur transfer along a metasomatized serpentinite-metagabbro contact in the Voltri Massif, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5283, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5283, 2022.

EGU22-5284 | Presentations | GD5.2

Variability of the shortening rate in Central Andes controlled by subduction dynamics and interaction between slab and overriding plate. 

Michaël Pons, Stephan Sobolev, Sibiao Liu, and Derek Neuharth

The nature of the shortening of the Central Andes has been a matter of debate. The South American plate is advancing westwards forcing the subducting Nazca plate to roll back and the trench to retreat. But as the trench slowed its retreat the Andean mountain belt formed. This decrease of trench velocity has been attributed to the anchoring of the slab, but this process cannot explain the observed pulsatile behaviour of the shortening rate. Indeed, whereas the formation of the Central Andes started ~50 Ma ago, most of the shortening and elevation growth, including the formation of the Altiplano-Puna plateau, took place in two pulsatile steps at 15 Ma and 7 Ma as recognized from geological data. Thus we hypothesize that the deformation of the Central Andes is controlled by the subduction dynamics and a complex interaction between the overriding and subducting plates.

We used the FEM geodynamic code ASPECT to develop a self-consistent subduction E-W-oriented 2D high-resolution geodynamic model along the Altiplano-Puna plateau (21°S). This model incorporates the flat slab subduction episode at 35 Ma and follows the evolution of the lithospheric deformation. Our model results reproduced the observed spatial and temporal variations of tectonic shortening in Central Andes.

Three main conditions related to the plate interaction are of key importance to explain the observed shortening rate evolution in Central Andes. Firstly, the subduction dynamics affects the trench migration: each episode of slab steepening is followed by the blocking of the trench. The steepening occurs after the flat slab and at the end of two slab-buckling instabilities at 15 Ma and at 7 Ma. The second relevant process is the weakening of the overriding plate. This is ensured by the partial removal of a part of the lithospheric mantle after the re-steepening of the flat slab at 35 Ma and by weakening of the sediments in the Subandean Ranges after 10 Ma. Thirdly, a relatively high interplate friction coefficient (~0.05) is needed to ensure the stress transfer from the slab to the overriding plate, which is further enhanced by the delaminated mantle lithosphere eventually blocking the subduction corner flow.

The pulses of shortening rate occur at the end of each slab-buckling cycle when the trench is blocked. The deformation of the overriding plate is intensified by the eclogitization of the lower crust and the subsequent delamination of the sublithospheric mantle. Finally, at ~10 Ma, the deformation switches from pure-shear to simple-shear shortening, after the underthrusting of the Brazilian craton in presence of weak foreland sediments. 

How to cite: Pons, M., Sobolev, S., Liu, S., and Neuharth, D.: Variability of the shortening rate in Central Andes controlled by subduction dynamics and interaction between slab and overriding plate., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5284, 2022.

EGU22-5344 | Presentations | GD5.2

Effects of subduction termination processes on continental lithosphere 

Simone Pilia, Rhodri Davies, Robert Hall, Conor Bacon, Amy Gilligan, Tim Greenfield, Felix Tongkul, and Nicholas Rawlinson

Subduction is the main driver of tectonic activity on Earth. Termination of subduction is followed by diverse and unexpected tectonic activity, such as anomalous magmatism, exhumation, subsidence and subsequent rapid uplift. What fundamentally drives these processes remain enigmatic. A prime example of subduction termination can be found in northern Borneo (Malaysia), where subduction ceased in the late Miocene and was followed by puzzling tectonic activity, as reconstructed from geological and petrological evidence. Our current understanding of the subduction cycle cannot be reconciled with evidence of post-subduction tectonics in both the near-surface geology and mantle of northern Borneo.

We use new passive-seismic data to image at unprecedent detail a sub-vertical lithospheric drip that developed as a Rayleigh-Taylor gravitational instability from the root of a volcanic arc, which formed above a subducting plate. We use thermo-mechanical simulations to reconcile these images with time-dependent dynamical processes within the crust and underlying mantle, following subduction termination. Our model predictions illustrate how significant extension from a downwelling lithospheric drip can thin the crust in an adjacent orogenic belt, causing lower crustal melting and possible exhumation of subcontinental material, which can explain core-complex formations seen in other areas of recent subduction termination.

How to cite: Pilia, S., Davies, R., Hall, R., Bacon, C., Gilligan, A., Greenfield, T., Tongkul, F., and Rawlinson, N.: Effects of subduction termination processes on continental lithosphere, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5344, 2022.

EGU22-7483 | Presentations | GD5.2

Controls on slab detachment and subsequent topography evolution 

Andrea Piccolo and Marcel Thielmann

Slab detachment causes a reorganization of the forces acting on orogenic systems and can have a distinctive signature in the geological record that may be identified through the structural,  metamorphic and topographic evolution of the orogen. However, this signature is hidden within other signals relating to the general complexity of the mountain building processes. In addition, slab detachment (or slab tearing in 3D) is a complex process that occurs on different timescales as a function of the inherent rheological properties of the lithosphere and the weakening mechanism occurring within the slab (viscous, plastic or thermal weakening).

How these properties affect the slab detachment process and to which extent these controls are reflected in the topograhic evolution of the orogenetic system is not yet fully understood. As slab detachment may occur at different depths and rates, it has different effects on the overall pull force acting on the orogen and on its post-detachment response.

Here, we employ 2D numerical experiments to systematically explore first order controls on slab detachment (slab rheology, geometry and weakening mechanisms) and the corresponding topographic evolution. Apart from the effect of lithosphere rheology and weakening mechanisms, we put particular focus on the effects of plate coupling and breakoff depth.

How to cite: Piccolo, A. and Thielmann, M.: Controls on slab detachment and subsequent topography evolution, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7483, 2022.

EGU22-8243 | Presentations | GD5.2

Styles of seamount subduction and overriding plate deformation 

Maaike Fonteijn, Elenora van Rijsingen, and Ylona van Dinther

The subduction of seamounts and its accompanying crustal deformation of the overriding plate is thought to have a large effect on the occurrence of megathrust earthquakes. Subducted seamounts can generally only be observed using seismic-reflection studies, which have shown that seamounts can subduct intact down to 30-40 km depth. On the other hand, there is evidence for accreted seamounts in e.g. the Costa Rica and Makran subduction zones. Because such observations only provide snapshots in space and time, little is still known about the exact evolution of seamount subduction and its effect on overriding-plate deformation and subduction zone seismicity through time. We investigate the different styles of seamount subduction and how these influence seismicity and overriding plate deformation. We use seismo-thermo-mechanical (STM) models with a visco-elasto-plastic rheology simulating seamount subduction over millions of years in a 2D realistic subduction setting. The momentum, mass and energy equations are solved and a strongly slip rate dependent friction allows for the spontaneous development of faults. The use of a realistic rheology allows us to evaluate faulting patterns and the state of stress in the overriding plate caused by seamount subduction. We find three scenarios for seamount subduction by varying the rock properties cohesion (C) and pore fluid pressure ratio (λ): (1) cutting off of the seamount at the trench leading to frontal accretion; (2) intact subduction through the trench, followed by flattening and stretching of the seamount; and (3) intact subduction of the seamount until seismogenic depths. Scenario’s 1 and 2 are most common, while scenario 3 only occurs under a limited range of material parameters. Particularly, a cohesion of the seamount and upper oceanic crust larger than 20 MPa is required for intact seamount subduction. Decreasing λ on locations with ample amounts of fluids increases the strength of the sediments, upper oceanic crust and seamount, but does not lead to intact seamount subduction. Subduction scenario’s 2 and 3 show more crustal deformation and seismicity within the fore-arc than subduction of a smooth interface (scenario 1 and models without a seamount). Seismicity patterns are also affected by λ and C. A low λ results in shorter and shallower megathrust ruptures and higher cohesions decrease the recurrence interval. Furthermore, the seamount itself introduces more frequent nucleation of smaller events at its edge.

How to cite: Fonteijn, M., van Rijsingen, E., and van Dinther, Y.: Styles of seamount subduction and overriding plate deformation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8243, 2022.

EGU22-8968 | Presentations | GD5.2 | Highlight

The role of subducted fluids on the genesis of deep earthquakes: evidence from deep diamonds and subduction zone thermal modeling 

Lara Wagner, Steven Shirey, Michael Walter, D. Graham Pearson, and Peter van Keken

The role of subducted fluids on the generation of deep earthquakes (300 – 700 km) has been a topic of much research and debate for decades. While fluids are commonly believed to play a role in the genesis of intermediate depth earthquakes (70 – 300 km), it is often argued that fluids (i.e., water- or carbonate-bearing) cannot be transported to sufficient depth to play a role in the triggering or propagation of deep earthquakes. However, recent investigations show evidence of up to ~1.5 wt% water in a ringwoodite inclusion in a diamond from the mantle transition zone [1]. Additionally, heavy iron (δ56Fe = 0.79–0.90‰) and unradiogenic osmium (187Os/188Os = 0.111) isotopic compositions of metallic inclusions in sublithospheric diamonds trace the pathway of serpentinized slabs from the trench to the top of the lower mantle [2]. Given this evidence for slab derived fluids at transition zone depths, we investigate the ability of fluids to reach these depths in subducted slabs by compiling a) new subduction zone thermal models, b) slab earthquake locations within these modeled subduction zones, and c) phase relations of hydrated or carbonated mantle peridotite and basaltic crust. Our results show a distinctive pattern that is consistent with the necessity of fluids in the generation of deep seismicity [3]. Specifically, those slabs capable of transporting water to the bottom of the transition zone (via dense hydrous magnesium silicates (DHMS)) produce earthquakes at transition zone depths. Conversely, virtually all slabs that do not transport water to these depths do not generate deep earthquakes. We also note that the depths of deep earthquakes coincide with the P/T conditions at which oceanic crust is predicted to intersect the carbonate-bearing basalt solidus to produce carbonatitic melts. We suggest that hydrous and/or carbonated fluids released from subducted slabs at these depths lead to fluid-triggered seismicity, fluid migration, diamond precipitation, and inclusion crystallization. Deep focus earthquake hypocenters would then track the general region of deep fluid release and migration in the mantle transition zone [3].

[1] Pearson, D. G., Brenker, F. E., Nestola, F., Mcneill, J., Nasdala, L., Hutchison, M. T., et al. (2014). Hydrous mantle transition zone indicated by ringwoodite included within diamond. Nature, 507, 221–224. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13080 [2] Smith EM, Ni P, Shirey SB, Richardson SH, Wang W, and Shahar, A (2021) Heavy iron in large gem diamonds traces deep subduction of serpentinized ocean floor. Science Advances 7: eabe9773 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe9773 [3] Shirey SB,  Wagner LS, Walter MJ, Pearson DG, and van Keken PE (2021) Slab Transport of Fluids to Deep Focus Earthquake Depths – Thermal Modeling Constraints and Evidence From Diamonds. AGU Advances: 2, e2020AV000304.    https://doi.org/10.1029/2020AV000304

How to cite: Wagner, L., Shirey, S., Walter, M., Pearson, D. G., and van Keken, P.: The role of subducted fluids on the genesis of deep earthquakes: evidence from deep diamonds and subduction zone thermal modeling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8968, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8968, 2022.

EGU22-11903 | Presentations | GD5.2

Modern hotspot-influenced MORBs reveal anoxic conditions during deposition and subduction of recycled Proterozoic sediments in their source 

Qasid Ahmad, Martin Wille, Carolina Rosca, Jabrane Labidi, Timothy Schmid, Klaus Mezger, and Stephan König

Significant Mo mobility and isotope (δ98/95Mo) fractionation is induced during prograde metamorphism at present-day subduction zones. Depending on the redox conditions during early subduction and accompanied slab dehydration, isotopically heavy Mo is released towards the overlying mantle wedge, leaving behind a depleted, and isotopically light subducted slab. This isotopically light Mo signature has been detected in slab-melt influenced volcanic rocks and potentially will be traceable in ocean-island basalts, if their geochemical signatures are affected by previously subducted lithologies (i.e. slab and overlying sediments). Thus, the isotope composition of mantle plume-influenced volcanic rocks might reveal the nature of subducted and re-incorporated lithologies and possibly redox conditions during subduction.

In this study, we present new Mo isotope data for South-Mid Atlantic Ridge basalts that partly interacted with the enriched Discovery and Shona mantle plumes. Isotopically heavier Mo isotope ratios (δ98/95Mo > ambient depleted mantle) are observed in samples tapping a more enriched mantle source. Furthermore, δ98/95Mo correlates with radiogenic isotopes (Sr, Nd, Hf) indicating recycling of a Proterozoic sedimentary components with a Mo isotopic composition that was not modified during and before subduction by Mo mobility under oxidising conditions. Rather, the new Mo isotope data supports and expands on previous stable Se and S isotope evidence that suggests the incorporation of subducted anoxic Proterozoic deep-sea sediments into the mantle of the South-Mid Atlantic Ridge basalts.

How to cite: Ahmad, Q., Wille, M., Rosca, C., Labidi, J., Schmid, T., Mezger, K., and König, S.: Modern hotspot-influenced MORBs reveal anoxic conditions during deposition and subduction of recycled Proterozoic sediments in their source, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11903, 2022.

EGU22-12659 | Presentations | GD5.2

Numerical modeling of subduction zones: thermo-mechanical stabilization as a function of overriding plate rheology and thickness 

Francisco Bolrão, Jaime Almeida, João C. Duarte, and Filipe M. Rosas

The absence of a forearc is a recurrent simplification in numerical subduction models. This because, to our knowledge, there are no previous studies that have systematically investigate the role of this structure on subduction systems. Despite its short length (166 ± 60 km), the forearc has a significant impact in the maintenance of a stable subduction. It has already been proposed that the serpentinization of this region, by percolating fluids from the sinking slab, reduces the effective mechanical strength of the plate coupling zone interface, allowing the one-sided asymmetric subduction observable in nature. Moreover, the forearc could be the key stabilization mechanism in intra-oceanic subduction settings. In this scenarios, the oceanic overriding plate (OP) could be in a thermal state such that would also be negative buoyant. The ubiquitous presence of forearcs in all-active intra-oceanic subductions suggests that a weak interface alone could not be enough to prevent the OP to sink. Adding a positive buoyant forearc  to the tip of the OP could provide the counterforce required to prevent the OP to sink, and eventually, double-sided subduction setting. There are studies that already implement a forearc structure in their numerical models. However, since its dynamic influence has not been study yet, we can not predict its impact and/or ascribe a specific dynamic behaviour of the system to it. 

In this work we investigate the role of the forearc and its contribution to emergent features in subduction zones. We present a series of fully dynamic, buoyancy driven, thermo-mechanical numerical modelling experiments with a free surface carried out to gain insight on the dynamic role of the forearc.  We use the Underwolrd numerical code to perform a parametrization to geometric and rheologic parameters of this structure, namely the thickness (age of the OP), length and density. We consider a forearc that encompasses the arc (25 to 250 km wide) as well. We kept all physical properties of the subducting plate  constant throughout all models. Therefore, we are able to ascribe all dynamic changes solely to variations of the forearc properties. We test different forearc compositions based on its density, ranging between 2700 and 3300  kg.m−3, for 200  kg.m−3 intervals, mimicking a full granitic continental and an basaltic oceanic forearc, respectively. For all densities, we also test several possible lengths, for 130 km and for 200 to 470 km, for intervals of 90 km. Additionally, we test all possible density-length combinations for five different OPs, in terms of age, ranging between 20 and 100 Myr, for 20 Myr intervals. 

We expect a higher accommodation of strain in the tip of the OP in models where the forearc is implemented. The presence of this structure could favor slab roll-forward before this reaches the 660 km discontinuity, enhance subduction velocities and generate a more pronounced orogenic topography. This features would be enhanced with the decrease of density and thickness and  the increase of length of the forearc.

How to cite: Bolrão, F., Almeida, J., C. Duarte, J., and M. Rosas, F.: Numerical modeling of subduction zones: thermo-mechanical stabilization as a function of overriding plate rheology and thickness, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12659, 2022.

EGU22-13213 | Presentations | GD5.2

Channel-flow induced ‘normal faulting’ in the Himalaya: a case study from the Jhala Normal Fault, Garhwal Higher Himalaya, NW India 

Narayan Bose, Takeshi Imayama, Ryoichi Kawabata, Saibal Gupta, and Keewook Yi

The ‘channel flow’ concept is generally associated with the collisional mountain belts (such as the Himalaya) to explain the exhumation of deeper crustal materials. According to the concept, the top part of the subducting plate gets ‘molten’ and tries to return to the surface following the ‘pipe flow’ mechanism via a combination of Poiseuille- and Couette Flows. In this study, we employed these concepts to address a long-standing debate related to the existence and cryptic nature (normal/ reverse) of an orogen parallel discontinuity, named the Jhala Normal Fault (JNF) present in the Bhagirathi River section of the Garhwal Higher Himalaya. More importantly, while a group of researchers consider the JNF to be the northern boundary of the Higher Himalayan channel (i.e., the South Tibetan Detachment System), another group put the JNF well inside the channel. In this scenario, understanding the mechanism of deformation at the JNF will not only solve this local issue but will also provide us with new insights into the geodynamic evolution of an orogeny. Based on fresh field observations and SHRIMP geochronological data (zircon and monazite), a model is being proposed in the current study to explain the origin and evolution of the JNF. The presence of amphibolite-grade rocks across the JNF, along with the lack of well-developed extensional markers, confirm that the fault is located within the Higher Himalayan channel, and not at the channel boundary. The U-Pb zircon rim ages of 33.8 ± 0.8 Ma and 30.7 ± 0.5 Ma obtained from the JNF hanging wall (northern block) and footwall (southern block), respectively, are considered as the ages of peak metamorphism. The hanging wall, which was present at the slow-moving marginal part of the channel during Eocene, eventually lagged behind the relatively faster and warmer central part. As a result, the footwall (southern) block experienced a faster exhumation, resulting in normal-sense movement along the JNF, as documented by sparse extension markers. At 21.4 ± 2.3 Ma (monazite U-Pb age), tourmaline-bearing leucogranite intruded in the JNF hanging wall, rupturing the host. This indicates the passive uplift of the JNF hanging wall (in a brittle domain) as a part of the Higher Himalaya. Hence the JNF originated as an intra-channel discontinuity, and our proposed model predicts the origin of a ‘normal fault’ during crustal channel flow.

How to cite: Bose, N., Imayama, T., Kawabata, R., Gupta, S., and Yi, K.: Channel-flow induced ‘normal faulting’ in the Himalaya: a case study from the Jhala Normal Fault, Garhwal Higher Himalaya, NW India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13213, 2022.

EGU22-13458 | Presentations | GD5.2

No channel flow in the Longmen Shan: evidence from the Maoxian-Wenchuan fault Cenozoic kinematics (SE Tibet) 

Chenglong Ge, Philippe Hervé Leloup, Yong Zheng, and Haibing Li

The NE striking Longmen Shan (LMS) mountains are located at the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau, and towers nearly 5000m above the Sichuan basin, which is considered to be the greatest relief than anywhere else around the plateau. From west to east, three major sub-parallel faults straddle the Longmen Shan: Wenchuan-Maoxian fault (WMF), Yingxiu-Beichuan fault and Guanxian-Anxian fault. Several models have been proposed to explain the Cenozoic uplift of the Longmen Shan. The major two models are lower crustal channel flow and upper crustal shortening, which imply different movement sense on the Wenchuan-Maoxian fault. The former suggests that the LMS were uplifted above a lower crustal flow expulsed from below the Tibetan plateau and would require a normal sense movement on the MWF. The latter implies that a series of upper crustal thrusts controlled the uplift of the LMS, and the WMF should have a reverse sense. Here we present field observations, fault gouge structural analysis and authigenic illite K-Ar geochronology data of fault gouge in the Wenchuan-Maoxian fault, showing that the Maoxian-Wenchuan fault was dextral with a reverse component at ~7Ma. Reconstruction of offsets of river valleys along the Wenchuan-Maoxian fault suggests that the corresponding total horizontal dextral offset is ~25km. Analysis of the thermochronology data acquired on both side of the fault suggest that dextral-reverse faulting started at ~13 Ma and possibly lasted until today. Our conclusions support the upper crustal shortening model and suggest the channel model maybe not applicable to Longmen Shan uplifting in the Miocene.

How to cite: Ge, C., Leloup, P. H., Zheng, Y., and Li, H.: No channel flow in the Longmen Shan: evidence from the Maoxian-Wenchuan fault Cenozoic kinematics (SE Tibet), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13458, 2022.

EGU22-1613 | Presentations | TS7.1

How does lithospheric strength, mantle hydration and slab flexure relate to seismicity in the southern Central Andes? 

Constanza Rodriguez Piceda, Magdalena Scheck-Wenderoth, Mauro Cacace, Judith Bott, Ya-Jian Gao, Frederik Tilmann, and Manfred Strecker

The southern Central Andes (SCA, 29°S—39°S) orogen is one of the seismically most active regions along the length of the South-American convergent margin, where past earthquakes (e.g., San Juan in 1944, Valdivia M9.5 in 1960 and M8.8 Maule in 2010) have had devastating effects on the population. Past research has extensively focused on linking the occurrence of seismic activity with the stress regime on individual faults at a local scale.  In order to more systematically address the relationship between the long-term rheological configuration of the whole lithosphere and the spatial patterns of seismic deformation in the SCA, we computed a 3D model of the expected mechanical strength and rheology (brittle, ductile) of the SCA and adjacent forearc and foreland regions based on an existing 3D model describing the first-order variations of thickness, composition and temperature of geological units forming the upper and subducting plates. We found that the spatial variation in the predicted rheology correlates well with the distribution of seismic deformation in the upper plate, with seismicity bounded to the modelled brittle deformation domain. Moreover, seismic events localize at the transition between mechanically strong and weak domains. This ultimately indicates that the strength of the lithosphere exerts a first-order control on the mechanical stability of the region.

In contrast, the results from the rheological model fail to reconcile the observed slab seismicity at depths > 50—70 km, where ductile rheological conditions are expected. In this case, we evaluated possible additional mechanisms triggering these earthquakes, including compaction of sediments at the interface, metamorphic reactions within the oceanic crust and mantle, and slab flexural stresses. To characterize the state of hydration of the mantle related to dehydration reactions and/or sediment compaction, we made use of the Vp/Vs ratio from a seismic tomography model. The majority of the slab seismicity was found to spatially correlate with hydrated areas of the slab and overlying continental mantle, apart from a cluster where the slab attains a sub-horizontal angle. In this region, the correlation between the focal mechanisms of these earthquakes and the slab orientation, suggests that seismicity here is driven by enhanced flexural stresses within the oceanic plate.

This contribution showcases the importance of a quantitative characterization of the rheological state of the lithosphere to elucidate the causative dynamics of the spatial distribution of seismicity in the area.

How to cite: Rodriguez Piceda, C., Scheck-Wenderoth, M., Cacace, M., Bott, J., Gao, Y.-J., Tilmann, F., and Strecker, M.: How does lithospheric strength, mantle hydration and slab flexure relate to seismicity in the southern Central Andes?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1613, 2022.

EGU22-2924 | Presentations | TS7.1

Multi-disciplinary assessment of the August 12, 2021, South Sandwich earthquake doublet 

Malte Metz, Angela Carillo Ponce, Felipe Vera, Simone Cesca, Frederik Tilmann, and Joachim Saul

On August 12, 2021, an earthquake doublet with a cumulative magnitude MW 8.0 – 8.3 hit the South Sandwich Trench in the South Atlantic where the South American plate is subducted beneath the Sandwich microplate. Significant differences in location, depth, and magnitude are reported by international agencies. Discrepant results might be due to the short inter-event time of ~150 s between both subevents and the lack of local and regional data.

We apply a multi-disciplinary approach to clarify the source processes and characterize different features of the doublet. Our centroid solutions of the mainshocks, separated by ~290 km, confirm the overall southward rupture directivity. The predominant thrust mechanisms, with different strike directions, suggest the activation of a bent portion of the slab. We estimate a cumulative magnitude of Mwc 7.65 inverted from body waves in the frequency band 0.01 – 0.03 Hz. Our magnitude estimate is substantially smaller than the one reported, e.g., by Global CMT, suggesting that a significant part of the moment has been released at lower frequency as a slow slip process. It is verified by a W-phase inversion in the frequency band 0.005 - 0.01 Hz with a resulting magnitude Mww of 8.0. The iterative deconvolution and stacking method (IDS) resolves high slip patches located in the area of the two mainshock centroids. High-frequency back-projection results confirm the unilateral southward rupture propagation. Complex fault and slab geometries do not significantly improve the fit, providing no clear evidence for the activation of secondary faults. Centroid moment tensors, estimated for 87 aftershocks between August 12, 2021 and August 31, 2021, support the identification and characterization of activated fault segments.

How to cite: Metz, M., Carillo Ponce, A., Vera, F., Cesca, S., Tilmann, F., and Saul, J.: Multi-disciplinary assessment of the August 12, 2021, South Sandwich earthquake doublet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2924, 2022.

EGU22-6099 | Presentations | TS7.1

Recurrent episodes of transient deformation in NW Sulawesi, Indonesia 

Nicolai Nijholt, Wim Simons, Taco Broerse, Joni Efendi, Dina Sarsito, and Riccardo Riva

The Celebes Sea subducts beneath the North Arm of Sulawesi, Indonesia, at the Minahassa trench. Over the past three decades, only a few Mw>7 earthquakes ruptured this plate interface, despite a 40 mm/yr convergence rate. The left-lateral Palu-Koro fault delineates the extent of the overriding plate at the western termination of the Minahassa subduction zone and hosted a Mw7.5 earthquake in September 2018. Observations of post-seismic surface motion following the 2018 event were interpreted in a previous study to result from afterslip that extended underneath the co-seismic rupture plane. A mismatch between observed post-seismic surface motions and predictions from afterslip distributions remained at the North Arm of Sulawesi.

In this study we revisit and reprocess the GNSS observations in NW Sulawesi. We analyse the post-2018 time series to determine whether the post-seismic signal can be ascribed to a single source. This is not the case, as we detect another, yet smaller amplitude signal. We take a Bayesian approach and find that this smaller magnitude signal corresponds to slow slip on the Minahassa subduction interface. This delayed-triggered, (apparently aseismic) slow slip event occurred just east of the 1996 Mw7.9 megathrust rupture.

The 20-year long time series is characterized by four additional periods of transient surface motion. Three of these periods are likely the result of distinct slow slip events and one is a post-seismic signal from the 2008 subduction Mw7.4 earthquake. The presumed slow slip events generally take more than 300 days to quiet down again with a recurrence interval of about five years.

How to cite: Nijholt, N., Simons, W., Broerse, T., Efendi, J., Sarsito, D., and Riva, R.: Recurrent episodes of transient deformation in NW Sulawesi, Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6099, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6099, 2022.

EGU22-6527 | Presentations | TS7.1

Probing the structure of the flat subduction in Oaxaca, Mexico, using a temporal seismic array. 

Marco Calò, Erika Alinne Solano Hernández, Karina Bernal Manzanilla, Luisa García Gomora, Xyoli Perez-Campos, and Arturo Iglesias Mendoza

Cocos plate assumes a peculiar flat subduction beneath Mexico. Oaxaca region is the part of Mexico where the trench is closest to the coastline and where a transition from flat to a more dipping subduction plane occurs.

The closest seismic broadband seismometers existing near the coast are managed by the Mexican National Seismological Service (SSN) and consist of three stations installed over a straight coastline of Oaxaca of more than 200 km. The limited number of stations makes it very      difficult to get a detailed study of the seismicity able to provide sufficient information to characterize the events of magnitude less than 4.0-4.5 in this portion of the subduction.

In this work we show the preliminary results of a temporary network of 11 stations (9 broadband and 2 Raspberry Shakes) installed since September 2021 on the Oaxaca coast and designed to complement the coverage of the SSN stations. The two networks are now able to provide enough information to obtain refined catalogs and carry out studies that can probe the structure of the crust and upper mantle of the region with unprecedented detail.

In particular we will show the first results of the refined event locations, focal mechanisms and 3D seismic velocity models. All this information is lighting several features unknown of this portion of the Cocos plate and the overlaying North America one, opening new questions about the tectonics and geodynamics of the region.

Work supported by the PASPA-DGAPA, UNAM program, as a sabbatical year at Universidad del Mar (UMAR), Puerto Angel, by the PAPIIT-DGAPA project: IN108221, and by the internal project of the UMAR: 2II2003 and PRODEP UMAR-PTC-181.

How to cite: Calò, M., Solano Hernández, E. A., Bernal Manzanilla, K., García Gomora, L., Perez-Campos, X., and Iglesias Mendoza, A.: Probing the structure of the flat subduction in Oaxaca, Mexico, using a temporal seismic array., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6527, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6527, 2022.

EGU22-6564 | Presentations | TS7.1

Transformational Faulting in Metastable Olivine, from Lab to Slab 

Julien Gasc, Clémence Daigre, Damien Deldicque, Arefeh Moarefvand, Blandine Gardonio, Julien Fauconnier, Claudio Madonna, Pamela Burnley, and Alexandre Schubnel

     This year marks the 100th anniversary of the discovery of Deep Focus Earthquakes (DFEs). Despite the elaboration of several hypotheses, the mechanisms responsible for their occurrence at depths where rocks flow in a viscous way are not entirely elucidated. DFEs are far from ubiquitous and only occur in certain subducting slabs as they descend through the mantle transition zone, where olivine transforms to wadsleyite and ringwoodite. This has led to associating DFEs to the transformation of metastable olivine. Faulting induced by the olivine transformation was proven to cause brittle behavior under conditions where ductile deformation otherwise prevails [Burnley et al., 1991]. It can also explain the anomalously high DFE activity in Tonga, which has been attributed to the thermal state of the subducting slab, colder slabs allowing for more metastable olivine.

     However, there are limited data regarding the conditions required for transformational faulting in terms of reaction kinetics, as well as regarding its possible propagation in ringwoodite peridotites. The seminal work of Burnley, Green and co-authors regarding transformational faulting used a Ge-olivine analogue, a material that undergoes the transition to the ringwoodite structure (Ge-spinel) at much lower pressures than the silicate counterpart [Burnley et al., 1991]. Here we continue to build upon this work by combining high pressure and temperature deformation experiments with Acoustic Emission (AE) monitoring. The experiments investigate lower temperatures and strain rates to assess the extrapolation of transformational faulting towards natural conditions. Ge-olivine samples were deformed in the Ge-spinel field at 1.5 GPa and various temperatures in a modified Griggs apparatus.

     We demonstrate that transformational faulting can initiate in metastable olivine, and then continue to propagate via shear-enhanced melting in the stable high-pressure phase, which is a paramount finding since transformational faulting has been contested as the origin of DFEs on the basis that large DFEs cannot be contained within a metastable olivine wedge. The experiments yielded a range of mechanical behaviors and acoustic signals depending on the kinetics of the olivine-ringwoodite transformation. The b-values associated with the obtained AEs range from 0.6-1.5, consistent with those of DFEs. In addition, we evidence that transformational faulting is controlled by the ratio between strain rate and reaction kinetics and extrapolate this relationship to the natural conditions of DFEs. Counterintuitively, these results imply that cold slabs induce transformational faulting at higher temperatures as a result of faster descent rates. This produces more numerous small DFEs and explains the higher b-values observed.

Burnley, P. C., H. W. Green, and D. J. Prior (1991), Faulting Associated With The Olivine To Spinel Transformation In Mg2geo4 And Its Implications For Deep-Focus Earthquakes, Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth and Planets, 96(B1), 425-443.

How to cite: Gasc, J., Daigre, C., Deldicque, D., Moarefvand, A., Gardonio, B., Fauconnier, J., Madonna, C., Burnley, P., and Schubnel, A.: Transformational Faulting in Metastable Olivine, from Lab to Slab, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6564, 2022.

EGU22-6888 | Presentations | TS7.1

First analysis of shallow tremors in the Guerrero seismic gap. 

Raymundo Plata-Martinez and Yoshihiro Ito

The Guerrero seismic gap, at the Mexican subduction zone, has been a region of great seismological interest because of the absence of a large earthquake in more than 110 years. If an earthquake were to rupture the entire Guerrero seismic gap the resulting earthquake could be disastrous to major Mexican cities. Additionally, the Guerrero subduction zone has plenty of slow earthquake activity with large slow slip events and tectonic tremors, located at the deep plate interface. To obtain a new and unique observation point of seismicity in the Guerrero seismic gap and continue evaluating its seismic risk, we deployed an array of ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) offshore the Guerrero seismic gap. We were able to detect and locate shallow tremors near the trench and deduce that a portion of the shallow plate interface undergoes stable slip. We used data from the OBS to analyse the new catalogue of shallow tremors and describe their source. Focal mechanisms of shallow tremors were estimated using S wave polarisation. We found that slip azimuth tends to follow the subduction plate motion, suggesting that tremors rupture at the plate interface. We also estimated shallow tremor radiated seismic energy. We found a heterogeneous energy release of shallow tremors along strike. Our observations of a heterogeneous shallow tremor energy release can be explained with the different mechanical properties, inside and outside the Guerrero seismic gap, and help to characterise the seismogenic zone at the shallow plate interface.

How to cite: Plata-Martinez, R. and Ito, Y.: First analysis of shallow tremors in the Guerrero seismic gap., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6888, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6888, 2022.

EGU22-8542 | Presentations | TS7.1

Back-arc thrusting in the Jakarta basin 

Sonny Aribowo, Laurent Husson, Christophe Basile, Danny H. Natawidjaja, Christine Authemayou, Mudrik R. Daryono, and Manon Lorcery

The Java subduction megathrust is undoubtedly the source of high magnitude, extremely damaging earthquakes. In the back-arc of the subduction zone, severe earthquakes also affect the northern part of Java. The Jakarta basin lies at the western end of the Java back-arc thrust, which stems on the seismogenic Flores thrust in the east and propagates westward across Java. The tectonic activity of the Java Back-arc Thrust in the Jakarta basin has been overlooked because of its low recurrence time. Yet, historical records reveal that it was destructive, resulting in severe destruction in Bogor and Jakarta. Tracking fault activity in large cities is problematic because the original landscape is often profoundly anthropized and has little to do with its pre-industrial physiography. In the Jakarta basin, this is even more complex owing to the fast Plio-Quaternary sedimentation that conceals the morphotectonic features associated with the fault. We combine geomorphic observations and subsurface data using DEMs and optical imagery, seismic reflection and biostratigraphic well data. At depth, seismic data reveal a partitioned fault network of compressive fault-propagation folds and transpressive flower structures that deform the Plio-Quaternary sedimentary layers of the Jakarta basin and interplay with volcanoes. At the surface, morphological observations in the rims of the basin reveal that several river meanders were abandoned and uplifted hundreds of meters above the current riverbeds above the fault network. In the basin, multiple meter scale waterfalls that we interpret as knickpoints above active faults scar the flat surface of the basin. We conclude that the western end of the Java back-arc thrust fault bears a potentially high risk for the infrastructures of the densely populated province of Jakarta.

How to cite: Aribowo, S., Husson, L., Basile, C., Natawidjaja, D. H., Authemayou, C., Daryono, M. R., and Lorcery, M.: Back-arc thrusting in the Jakarta basin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8542, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8542, 2022.

EGU22-8846 | Presentations | TS7.1

Testing the Strain-rate Hypothesis for Deep Slab Seismicity 

Magali Billen, Rebecca Fildes, Marcel Thielmann, and Menno Fraters

The occurrence of deep earthquakes within subducting lithosphere (slabs) remains enigmatic because these earthquakes have many similarities to shallow earthquakes, yet frictional failure is strongly inhibited at high pressure. Regardless of depth, earthquakes occur where the temperature is cold enough that elastic deformation is accumulated over time: for frictionally controlled earthquakes at shallow depth, the rate of seismic moment release is correlated with the strain-rate. Comparison of spatial variation in strain-rate magnitude from 2D simulations of subduction to observed seismicity versus depth profiles suggest that strain-rate may also be a determining factor in the occurrence of deep slab seismicity (1). In addition, proposed mechanisms for deep earthquakes, including transformational faulting of metastable olivine and thermal shear instability, are known to depend directly on strain-rate. To test the hypothesis that strain-rate is a determining factor in the spatial distribution of deep earthquakes, we are creating 2D models of subduction with visco-elasto-plastic (VEP) rheology and a free surface in the software ASPECT (2). The 2D slab structure is constructed for specific locations in which the slab geometry is extracted from Slab 2.0 (3) and the plate age and convergence rate are used to define the thermal structure using a new mass-conserving slab temperature model (4) implemented in the Geodynamic WorldBuilder (5). The resulting strain-rate and stress, together with the pressure and temperature along multiple transects of the slab are used as input values for a 1D thermal shear instability model (6) using the same VEP rheology as the slab deformation models.  Using this approach we can test whether the conditions in the slab favor failure through thermal shear instability and compare the spatial distibution to obsered seismicity. Initial results of this workflow will be presented, including how we have overcome some of the challenges in running VEP models for comparison to present-day slab seismicity. References: 1. Billen, M. I. , Sci. Advances, 2020. 2. Bangerth, W. et al., https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.5131909, 2021. 3. Hayes, G.P. et al., Science, 2018. 4. Billen, M. I. and Fraters, M. R. T., EGU Abstract, 2022. 5. Fraters, M. R. T. et al., Solid earth, 2019. 6. Thielmann, M. Tectonophysics, 2018. 

 

How to cite: Billen, M., Fildes, R., Thielmann, M., and Fraters, M.: Testing the Strain-rate Hypothesis for Deep Slab Seismicity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8846, 2022.

The occurrence of deep-focus earthquakes (h > 300 km) is restricted to a handful of regions worldwide, generally associated with subduction zones. In particular, the South American subduction zone hosts two narrow belts of deep-focus seismicity with depths greater than ~500 km along the Peru-Brazil border and Bolivia/northern Argentina. This subduction zone has a thermal parameter of Φ < 2500 km and is regarded as a warm end-member. Only in 2015, the USGS catalog listed up to 25 deep-focus events in the Peru-Brazil belt, with magnitudes and depths ranging from 4.0 to 7.6 Mw and 515 to 655 km, respectively. Notably, this sequence included a well-investigated doublet of two 7.6 Mw events occurring 5 min apart trailed by a number of aftershocks of magnitude 4.0 Mw or larger. Published focal mechanisms for the main doublet display predominantly double-couple components that closely agree with the GCMT solution (E1: 350°, 39°, -80° and E2: 350°, 30°, -81°), suggesting shear failure at those depths. Mechanisms capable of shear instability at those large depths traditionally include dehydration embrittlement, transformational faulting, thermal runaway or a combination of those. Aiming at investigating the physical mechanism responsible for these deep-focus events, we are using a combination of regional and teleseismic recordings from the Brazilian Seismographic Network (RSBR) and other regional and national networks in the continent to determine focal mechanisms for deep-focus earthquakes (M > 4) that occurred between 2014 and 2022. The mechanisms are being determined through a Cut and Paste approach, which compensates for inaccuracies in the velocity model through independent relative time shifts between observations and predictions for P, SV and SH wave trains sampling both the upper and lower hemispheres of the focal sphere. The results on the 2015 doublet, using the full dataset (regional and teleseismic stations), indicated two very similar normal faults fully consistent with the GCMT solutions, at the preferred depths of 616 (E1) and 621 (E2) km. Preliminary inversions using only regional networks (RSBR) for 15 smaller earthquakes (4.3 < M < 7.1) also yield normal mechanisms with T axes oriented roughly E-W. This apparent uniformity of the focal mechanisms for the South-American deep-focus earthquakes, with near-vertical P axes and near-horizontal (east-west-oriented) T axes, strongly suggests vertical compression along the subducting plate is the main source of stress driving deep-focus seismicity. Down-dip compression is expected from either buoyancy forces, equilibrium phase transformations or a metastable olivine wedge (MOW); however, how earthquakes are nucleated at those depths is harder to explain. Transformational faulting within the MOW has been the preferred mechanism in cold slabs, while in warm slabs its presence has been more debated due to wedge size being expected to decrease with temperature. Transformational faulting in other metastable minerals such as enstatite is our preferred alternative, as dehydration embrittlement and thermal runaway seem to lack the capacity of triggering earthquakes at those large depths.

How to cite: Leite Neto, G. and Julià, J.: Investigating Source Mechanisms of Deep-Focus Earthquakes at the Peru-Brazil Border with Regional and Teleseismic Data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9820, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9820, 2022.

EGU22-11060 | Presentations | TS7.1

Megathrust Seismicity Through the Lens of Explainable Artificial Intelligence 

Juan Carlos Graciosa, Fabio Antonio Capitanio, Mitchell Hargreaves, Thyagarajulu Gollapalli, and Mohd Zuhair

Understanding the controls on large magnitude seismicity occurrence remains an open challenge, yet a pressing one, for the exceptional hazard associated with earthquakes. Different parameters are proposed to exert control on the generation and propagation of megathrust earthquakes and untangling their complex interactions across scales remains challenging. Here, we use explainable artificial intelligence to unravel the interactions between different parameters and elucidate the underlying mechanisms. We use three types of datasets from a number of convergent margins: a) a catalogue of earthquake hypocentre and rupture, b) geophysical observations of subduction zones properties (e.g., gravity, bathymetric roughness, sediment thickness), and c) the distribution of stress within the slab due to slab pull calculated from flexure models. These constitute the three types of nodes in the input layer of a Fully Connected Network (FCN) trained to classify earthquake magnitude embedding the state of the system (b), the driving mechanism (c) and the resulting seismicity (a). We then analyse the trained network using Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) to determine the relative weights of the input nodes, providing relevant constraints on the mechanisms that dominate the seismicity in a region, their scale and likelihood.

How to cite: Graciosa, J. C., Capitanio, F. A., Hargreaves, M., Gollapalli, T., and Zuhair, M.: Megathrust Seismicity Through the Lens of Explainable Artificial Intelligence, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11060, 2022.

EGU22-11670 | Presentations | TS7.1

From the Izu-Bonin to the north of Hokkaido : how did the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake affect the Pacific plate seismicity ? 

Blandine Gardonio, David Marsan, Stéphanie Durand, and Alexandre Schubnel

The last twenty years have seen a number of large, devastating earthquakes on subduction zones. In many ways, the M9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake was bewildering for the seismological community. It occurred on a previously identified coupled area but ruptured a larger zone than expected and, above all, the large amount of near-trench coseismic slip was a surprise.

Because Japan is one of the best area instrumented in the world, the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake is one of the world's best-recorded ruptures. Many studies have analyzed with great details the pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic phases of the Tohoku earthquake. Researchers also focused on the triggering of on-land seismicity following the mega-thrust earthquake. However, no study zoom out and considered the consequences of this earthquake on the Pacific plate in this area.

 

In this study, we analyzed the Japanese Meteorological Agency seismic catalog over ten years of data to assess the consequences of such large mega-thrust earthquake over the Pacific plate from the Izu-Bonin area to the north of Hokkaido island. We studied the seismicity from 0 to 700km depth, taking advantage of one of the most complete subduction zone catalogue.

Our results show that the seismic rate south of Japan experienced a decrease at the time of Tohoku about 30% and an increase of 20% underneath the Hokkaido island. The subduction zone that is downdip Tohoku doesn’t seem affected by the megathrust earthquake. While it is difficult to understand and to model such large scale effects of the Tohoku earthquake on the Pacific plate, we think it is primordial to observe and detail them with precision.

How to cite: Gardonio, B., Marsan, D., Durand, S., and Schubnel, A.: From the Izu-Bonin to the north of Hokkaido : how did the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake affect the Pacific plate seismicity ?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11670, 2022.

EGU22-11762 | Presentations | TS7.1

Crushed and fried: ductile rupture at depth due to grain size reduction and shear heating 

Marcel Thielmann and Thibault Duretz

Since their discovery in 1928, deep earthquakes have been the subject of extensive research to unravel their nucleation and rupture mechanisms. Due to the elevated pressures and temperatures at depths below 50 km, brittle failure becomes less likely and ductile deformation is favored. To date, there is no consensus on the mechanisms resulting in deep earthquake generation. Three main mechanisms (dehydration embrittlement, transformational faulting and thermal runaway) have been proposed to cause deep earthquakes, but neither of them has been sufficiently quantified to yield a definite answer under which conditions they are active.

Here, we explore the feasibility of the thermal runaway hypothesis using 1D and 2D thermo-mechanical models. In particular, we investigate the impact of grain size reduction in conjunction with shear heating to see whether grain size reduction and shear heating are competitive mechanisms (which would prevent thermal runaway) or whether they are collaborative. Our results show that the combination of both mechanisms facilitates thermal runaway and significantly reduces the stress required for the occurrence of thermal runaway. We then investigate whether this combined failure mechanism may explain the seismicity observed in regions of detaching lithosphere, such as the Hindu Kush and the Vrancea earthquake nests. 

How to cite: Thielmann, M. and Duretz, T.: Crushed and fried: ductile rupture at depth due to grain size reduction and shear heating, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11762, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11762, 2022.

EGU22-12386 | Presentations | TS7.1

Lithospheric structure in and around Slow Slip in the Alaska Subduction Region 

Pousali Mukherjee and Yoshihiro Ito

Subduction zones host some of the greatest megathrust earthquakes in the world. Slow earthquakes have been also discovered around the subduction zones of the Pacific rim very close to megathrust earthquakes in several subduction zones in Chile, Cascadia, Mexico, Alaska, and New Zealand (Obara and Kato, 2016). Investigating the lithosphere of the slow earthquake area versus non slow-earthquake areas in subduction zones is crucial in understanding the role of the internal structure to control slow earthquakes. Deep transient slow slip had been detected in the Lower and Upper Cook Inlet in the Alaska subduction region(Fu et al. 2015; Li et al. 2016; Wei et al. 2012). In this study, we investigate the lithospheric structure beneath the stations in and around the slow earthquake area in Alaska. We also study the non slow-earthquake areas in the Alaska subduction zone using receiver function analysis and inversion method using teleseismic earthquakes. Here we focus on, especially the Vs and Vp/Vs ratios from both the slow and non-slow earthquake areas, because of the sensitivity  to the fluid distribution in the lithosphere; the fluid distribution possibly controls the potential occurrence of slow earthquakes.
Additionally, the nature of the slab can also play a crucial factor. The velocities around the plate interface region in the lower continental mantle, subducted oceanic crust and upper oceanic mantle has the potential to reveal information that the structural heterogeneity could be related to the slow slip.

How to cite: Mukherjee, P. and Ito, Y.: Lithospheric structure in and around Slow Slip in the Alaska Subduction Region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12386, 2022.

An increase of both shallow and intraslab intermediate-depth seismicity has been observed days to years before some great subduction earthquakes, as before Tohoku-oki (Mw 9.0, 2011), Maule (Mw 8.8, 2010) or Iquique (Mw 8.2, 2014) earthquakes (Bouchon et al., 2016, Jara et al,. 2017). These observations suggest that a link exists between these deep and shallow foreshocks, but it is still poorly understood and not characterized in a systematic manner. Some studies have attempted to address this lack of systematic characterization by using a statistical approach (Delbridge et al., 2017).

The aim of this study is to systematically and statistically identify and characterize the potential correlations between deep and shallow seismicity. We want to assess whether or not such interactions exist. If they exist, we plan to characterize when and where they occur, at what frequency, their characteristic duration, and with what spatial pattern.  

For this purpose, we develop a statistical method to assess the relevance of deep-shallow interactions, that allows to identify statistically significant correlations between deep and shallow seismicity. We focused on the seismicity of the Japan trench subduction zone during the decade prior to the Tohoku-oki earthquake, because deep-shallow interactions were identified there, and because we can test the events picked by our method against the correlations highlighted in published papers (Bouchon et al., 2016). The correlation values between the deep and shallow events from the Japan Meteorological Agency catalog are calculated on various different sliding-windows with durations from month to week. These correlation values are then compared to the ones obtained using synthetic series of shallow events that meet the spectral properties of the real series, and the significance of the correlation is calculated.

Some windows show a strong correlation. The dependence of our results to different parameters, such as the completeness magnitude, the length of the window, the lag, the smoothing etc… are evaluated. The spatio-temporal analysis of the seismicity on maps for these windows is also explored. While the results are still preliminary, we believe that this method has the potential to systematically and quantitatively assess the current presumptions on the link between deep and shallow seismicity, that would lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms leading to megathrust earthquakes.

 

Bouchon, M., Marsan, D., Durand, V., Campillo, M., Perfettini, H., Madariaga, R., & Gardonio, B. (2016). Potential slab deformation and plunge prior to the Tohoku, Iquique and Maule earthquakes. Nature Geoscience, 9(5), 380.

Delbridge, B. G., Kita, S., Uchida, N., Johnson, C. W., Matsuzawa, T., & Bürgmann, R. (2017). Temporal variation of intermediate‐depth earthquakes around the time of the M9. 0 Tohoku‐oki earthquake. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(8), 3580-3590.

Jara, J., Socquet, A., Marsan, D., & Bouchon, M. (2017). Long-Term Interactions Between Intermediate Depth and Shallow Seismicity in North Chile Subduction Zone. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(18), 9283-9292.

How to cite: Chouli, A., Marsan, D., Giffard-Roisin, S., Bouchon, M., and Socquet, A.: Analysis of the potential correlation between intraslab intermediate-depth and shallow earthquakes in the Japan trench subduction zone prior to the Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12565, 2022.

Subaerial landslide-generated waves are among natural hazards that have attracted attention in recent years, in particular after the 2018 Anak Krakatau volcanic tsunami (Indonesia), which left a death toll of over 450. This has increased the application of physical modelling on subaerial landslide tsunamis to cope with the risks of such hazards and to develop knowledge of their generation mechanisms. Physical experiments in two-dimensional flumes are generally more cost-efficient, less time consuming and allow better control on the set-up. As a result, landslide–tsunamis are considerably investigated in 2D rather than in 3D. However, it is important to note that 2D physical modelling of subaerial landslide–tsunamis could be associated with some uncertainties and may slightly overestimate the wave amplitudes. By using 3D physical models, it is possible to investigate wave amplitude attenuations in both radial and angular directions, which would improve the understanding of wave propagation. In this research, we conduct 2D and 3D experiments on subaerial landslide tsunamis. The physical experiments were conducted in a 2.5 m wide, 0.50 m deep and 2.5 m long wave basin at the Brunel University London (UK). The experimental setup included five different slope angles (i.e. 25o,35o,45o,55o and 65o). The solid blocks had four different volumes in a range of 0.5×10-12 km3-3.0×10-12 km3. The generated water waves were measured using six precision capacitance wave gauges located in both near- and far-fields. The 2D and 3D results are compared to quantify the effects of dimensions on the wave amplitudes and attenuations.

How to cite: Sabeti, R. and Heidarzadeh, M.: Three-dimensional physical modelling of subaerial landslide-generated waves and comparison with two-dimensional experiments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-39, 2022.

The last major events in the Sea of Japan were in 1983 and 1993. There were the 1983 Nihonkai-Chubu Earthquake (Mw 7.8) and the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki Earthquake (Mw 7.7). These earthquakes caused tsunamis, which we are studying in this research. I use numerical modelling to reproduce and study effects for the Russian coast. The tsunami waves were stimulated by the TUNAMI numerical model. The bottom topography was created using GEBCO database (30 arc seconds), SRTM data, digitized Russian navigational charts and NOAA Center data. The tsunami source was calculated using Okada's formulas. To better resolve local resonant properties arising from local topography and tsunami run-up, calculations were carried out with nested grids. Using nested grids made it possible to obtain significant agreement with the observational data. Since the seismic source of the 1993 earthquake has a complex structure, three different models were analyzed: USGS, Harvard-model and Takahashi et al. 1995. This study focuses on an examination of the Russian coast. Vladivostok, Posyet and Nakhodka were considered in the most detail. Comparison of the model with the observations was done for both the tsunami waveforms and their spectra. Also, a tsunami wave height map was built for the entire Russian coast of the Sea of Japan. The maximum tsunami wave height on the Russian coast in 1993 was more than 5 m.

How to cite: Tsukanova, E.: The 1983 and 1993 tsunamis on the coast of the Sea of Japan: observations and numerical modelling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-166, 2022.

EGU22-904 | Presentations | NH5.1

The South Sandwich circum-Antarctic tsunami of August 12, 2021: widespread propagation using oceanic ridges 

Jean Roger, Helene Hebert, Anthony Jamelot, Aditya Gusman, William Power, and Judith Hubbard

On the 12th of August 2021 at 18:32:54 and 18:35:20 (UTC) a doublet of reverse faulting earthquakes of magnitude Mw 7.5 and 8.1 were recorded by seismic observatories. These earthquakes were located on the South Sandwich Islands (UK) subduction zone, in the south Atlantic Ocean at 25.032°W/57.567°S and 25.327°W/58.451°S respectively (USGS locations). Initially, their temporal proximity (2’26”) made clear distinction of the two events impossible and a tsunami warning was issued by the PTWC after the first earthquake only. In fact, a tsunami was clearly recorded ~800 km north-westward of the epicentre on nearby King Edward Point coastal gauge (South Georgia Island, UK) ~1.5 hours after the shaking, showing a maximum amplitude of ~74 cm. While tsunami waves were recorded by neighbouring gauges located in the south Atlantic Ocean and the south-west Indian Ocean, numerical simulations of wave propagation show that this tsunami appears likely to have reached far-field regions not only in the Atlantic Ocean, but also in the Indian and Pacific Oceans using oceanic ridges like the Mid-Atlantic and Atlantic-Indian ridges as waveguides. Analysis of 33 records from gauges located within the maximum amplitude lobes of the simulated tsunami validates the modelling and the nearly worldwide spread of this tsunami. Further tsunami simulations using high-resolution nested grids to refine the bathymetry around the gauges (e.g. La Réunion Island, Cocos, Hillary Harbour) are used to constrain the source model via tsunami waveform inversion, comparing the calculated results and the real records. Consequently, we highlight that this tsunami reached many places including the Canary Islands, Cape Verde and the Azores in the northern Atlantic Ocean, and French Polynesia, New Zealand, Hawaii and as far as the Aleutian Islands in the Pacific Ocean, making this subduction zone a source for further consideration in tsunami hazard assessments of these distant regions, especially in the case of a more energetic rupture. Although the largest known event in the instrumental period is the 27 June 1929 MPAS 8.3 earthquake, geological knowledge of the region suggests that this ~1000 km long convergence zone between the South American and the South Sandwich plates with a convergence rate of 69-78 mm yr−1, is potentially able to produce a Mw 9.0 earthquake. This is supported by recent studies showing that the sediment thickness of 2-3 km at the trench and the ~150 km wide subduction interface shallow dipping (< 20° in the forearc part) are positive factors for generation of earthquakes Mw > 8.5. Results of simulation of Mw 9.0+ scenarios rupturing most of the subduction zone are discussed as well as the particular role of the oceanic ridges in the tsunami propagation. Our research aims to improve understanding of tsunami hazard posed by this subduction zone, especially for southern hemisphere coastlines.

How to cite: Roger, J., Hebert, H., Jamelot, A., Gusman, A., Power, W., and Hubbard, J.: The South Sandwich circum-Antarctic tsunami of August 12, 2021: widespread propagation using oceanic ridges, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-904, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-904, 2022.

EGU22-1273 | Presentations | NH5.1

Tsunami Mitigation Map and Evacuation Route Modeling on the Jetis Beach, Cilacap Regency, Indonesia using Scoring Method and Dijkstra’s Algorithm 

Anjar Tri Laksono, Asmoro Widagdo, Maulana Rizki Aditama, Muhammad Rifki Fauzan, and Janos Kovacs

The tsunami that occurred on the Southern Coast of West Java and Central Java resulted in 802 people killed, 498 people injured, and 1623 houses heavily damaged. The total economic loss and damage to infrastructure due to this disaster reached US$55 million. The impact of this disaster in Jetis Village, Cilacap, Central Java was 12 people died, Jetis Beach tourist facilities were damaged, transportation infrastructure was destroyed, and hundreds of houses collapsed. The Jetis area and its surroundings are very close to vital national infrastructures such as the Cilacap steam power plant that supplies electricity to southern Java and the Cilacap container port. In addition, this area is a tourist attraction visited by thousands of people per year. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to create a tsunami disaster mitigation map and evacuation route in Jetis Village to anticipate future casualties and economic losses. The method used in this study is scoring to create a tsunami mitigation map and Dijkstra's algorithm to determine the fastest evacuation route. The results depict that there are five zones of tsunami vulnerability, namely high impact potential, moderately high, moderate, moderately low, and low impact potential. The most vulnerable tsunami is the South Jetis area that has low elevation, is near the coast, fairly gentle slope, and is close to the river. Meanwhile, the northern part of Jetis is the safest zone of tsunami hazard. It has a high elevation, far from the coastline and river, and a steep slope. The distance of the evacuation route from the high-impact zone to the safe evacuation zone is 683 m. This study concludes that the high-impact to moderate-impact zone needs to be avoided in the event of a tsunami. If the community is within that range zone, then an evacuation route should be followed.

How to cite: Laksono, A. T., Widagdo, A., Aditama, M. R., Fauzan, M. R., and Kovacs, J.: Tsunami Mitigation Map and Evacuation Route Modeling on the Jetis Beach, Cilacap Regency, Indonesia using Scoring Method and Dijkstra’s Algorithm, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1273, 2022.

EGU22-1559 | Presentations | NH5.1

Tsunami hazards in Eastern Indonesia from earthquake, landslide and volcanic sources: Seram Island (June 2021) and Molucca Sea (November 2019) tsunamis 

Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Danny Hilmann Natawidjaja, Nugroho D. Hananto, Widjo Kongko, Ramtin Sabeti, Mudrik R. Daryono, Purna Putra, Adi Patria, and Aditya Riadi Gusman

Eastern Indonesia is exposed to significant tsunami hazards induced by its complex tectonic setting characterized by several curved subduction zones, multiple active volcanoes, as well as submarine landslides. Therefore, the region experiences tsunami from various types of sources (earthquake, landslide and volcano). Here, we study the great tsunami hazards in Eastern Indonesia through analyzing two recent real tsunamis that occurred in this region namely the 14 November 2019 Molucca Sea tsunami following an Mw 7.2 earthquake, and the 16th of June 2021 tsunami following an Mw 5.9 earthquake.

For the 2019 Molucca Sea tsunami, we analyzed 16 tide gauge records and 69 teleseismic data to characterize the tsunami and the earthquake. The maximum zero-to-crest tsunami amplitude was 13.6 cm recorded at Bitung. A combination of aftershocks analysis, forward tsunami simulations and teleseismic inversions were applied to obtain the tsunami source. It is found that the best results are obtained using a rupture velocity of 2.0 km/s and a high-angle reverse fault with a dip angle of 55o. The source model has a maximum slip of 2.9 m, and an average slip of 0.64 m. The seismic moment associated with this final slip model is 7.64 × 1019 N·m, equivalent to Mw 7.2. By comparing the results with other similar events in the region, such as the November 2014 event (Mw 7.1) with a reverse mechanism and a high dip angle of 65o, we may conclude that the Molucca Sea region is prone to splay faulting.

The 16th June 2021 tsunami was observed on the southern coast of Seram Island following an Mw 5.9 earthquake. The tsunami’s maximum wave amplitude was approximately 50 cm on the Tehoru tide gauge whereas the other two nearby stations showed amplitudes of less than 4 cm. Such a relatively large tsunami (50 cm in Tehoru) is normally unexpected from an earthquake of Mw 5.9 having a normal faulting mechanism. It is likely that a plausible secondary tsunami source, such as a submarine landslide, was involved. For the case of the 2021 Seram tsunami, here we apply numerical modelling and bathymetric analysis to examine the veracity of it being generated by a submarine landslide. Modeling of earthquake sources of the tsunami confirmed that that the simulated tsunamis were only a few centimeters in height and thus cannot reproduce the 50 cm waves observed in Tehoru. However, we were able to reproduce the tsunami observations using potential landslide sources.

This research is funded by The Royal Society (the United Kingdom), grant number CHL/R1/180173.   

How to cite: Heidarzadeh, M., Hilmann Natawidjaja, D., Hananto, N. D., Kongko, W., Sabeti, R., Daryono, M. R., Putra, P., Patria, A., and Gusman, A. R.: Tsunami hazards in Eastern Indonesia from earthquake, landslide and volcanic sources: Seram Island (June 2021) and Molucca Sea (November 2019) tsunamis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1559, 2022.

EGU22-2852 | Presentations | NH5.1

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments in Eastern Sicily (Italy) including sea level rise caused by climate change and local subduction effects. 

Anita Grezio, Enrico Baglione, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Tonini, Marco Anzidei, and Antonio Vecchio

The coasts of the Mediterranean Sea are densely populated and exposed to tsunami inundations as reported by historical evidence. Measures to mitigate the tsunami risk in this region are based on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) computed considering present coastal morphologies. However, mean sea level projections for the 21st century indicated a general sea level rise which can be substantially modified if uplift or subsidence may occur locally due to other geological factors. In order to reduce the potential impact of tsunamis all factors (climatic or not) should be included in the tsunami hazard analysis. In this study we focus on the Eastern Sicily and we examine how the PTHA can significantly change when the general trend of sea level rise, based on AR-5 and AR-6 IPCC climate scenarios and rates of Vertical Land Movements, are included in the region. Moreover, we take into account associated epistemic uncertainties related to the future sea level rise under different conditions of low- and high-emission representative concentrations. 

How to cite: Grezio, A., Baglione, E., Selva, J., Tonini, R., Anzidei, M., and Vecchio, A.: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments in Eastern Sicily (Italy) including sea level rise caused by climate change and local subduction effects., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2852, 2022.

EGU22-3912 | Presentations | NH5.1

Performance and limits of a shallow model for landslide generated tsunamis: from lab experiments to simulations of flank collapses at La Montagne Pelée (Martinique) 

Pablo Poulain, Anne Le Friant, Anne Mangeney, Sylvain Viroulet, Enrique Fernandez-Nieto, Manuel Castro Diaz, Marc Peruzzetto, Gilles Grandjean, François Bouchut, Rodrigo Pedreros, and Jean-Christophe Komorowski

We investigate the dynamics and deposits of granular flows and the amplitude of the generated water waves using the depth-averaged shallow numerical model HySEA, both at the lab- and field scales. We investigate the different sources of errors by quantitatively comparing the simulations with (i) six new laboratory experiments of granular collapses in different conditions (dry, immersed, dry flow entering water) and slope angles, and (ii) numerical simulations made with the code SHALTOP that describes topography effects better than most landslide-tsunami models. In the laboratory configurations, at the limit of the shallow-approximation in such models, we show that topography and non-hydrostatic effects are crucial. However, when empirically accounting for topography effects by artificially increasing the friction coefficient and performing non-hydrostatic simulations, the model is able to reproduce the granular mass deposit and the waves recorded at gauges located at a distance of more than 2-3 times the characteristic dimension of the slide, with an error ranging from 1 % to 25 % depending on the scenario, without any further calibration. Taking into account this error estimation, we simulate landslides that occurred on Montagne Pelée volcano, Martinique, Petites Antilles as well as the generated waves. Results support the hypothesis that large flank collapse events in Montagne Pelée likely occurred in several successive sub-events. This result has a strong impact on the amplitude of the generated waves, and thus on the associated hazards. In the context of the on-going seismic volcanic unrest at Montagne Pelée volcano, we calculate the debris avalanche and associated tsunami for two potential flank-collapse scenarios.

How to cite: Poulain, P., Le Friant, A., Mangeney, A., Viroulet, S., Fernandez-Nieto, E., Castro Diaz, M., Peruzzetto, M., Grandjean, G., Bouchut, F., Pedreros, R., and Komorowski, J.-C.: Performance and limits of a shallow model for landslide generated tsunamis: from lab experiments to simulations of flank collapses at La Montagne Pelée (Martinique), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3912, 2022.

EGU22-3949 | Presentations | NH5.1

An improved workflow to efficiently compute local seismic probabilistic tsunami analysis (SPTHA): a case study for the harbour of Ravenna (Italy) 

Enrico Baglione, Beatriz Brizuela, Manuela Volpe, Alberto Armigliato, Filippo Zaniboni, Roberto Tonini, and Jacopo Selva

We present a refined methodological procedure for computationally efficient local SPTHA based on regional SPTHA.  The adopted procedure extracts from the regional SPTHA the most impacting tsunami sources at the investigated site, and reconstructs hazard curves on high-resolution topobathymetric models based on a reduced set of inundation simulations. This procedure enhances the original workflow for local SPTHA quantification described by Volpe et al. (2019), applying some significant upgrades to simplify its application and improve the accuracy of the results. In particular, the description of local sources has been refined through a more detailed discretization of the natural variability (aleatory uncertainty), eventually reducing the epistemic uncertainty. Then, a more efficient filtering procedure, based on the strategy proposed by Williamson et al. (2020), is adopted to select a subset of scenarios to be modelled at high resolution, eventually reducing the epistemic uncertainty introduced by this selection. This allows to perform only coarse-grid simulations after the regional source filtering and local source refinement, and then combine coarse-grid results with fine-grid topography. Overall, the resulting method simplifies the original one, improving accuracy and decreasing uncertainty. The newly developed procedure is applied to an illustrative case study for the harbour of Ravenna (Northern Adriatic Sea, Italy).

How to cite: Baglione, E., Brizuela, B., Volpe, M., Armigliato, A., Zaniboni, F., Tonini, R., and Selva, J.: An improved workflow to efficiently compute local seismic probabilistic tsunami analysis (SPTHA): a case study for the harbour of Ravenna (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3949, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3949, 2022.

EGU22-4804 | Presentations | NH5.1

Granular porous landslide tsunami modelling with OpenFOAM 

Matthias Rauter, Sylvain Viroulet, Sigríður Sif Gylfadóttir, Finn Løvholt, and Wolfgang Fellin

Subaerial landslides are among the most complex sources for tsunamis, as several complex processes occur simultaneously in various regimes, with multiple phases interacting. The simulation and prediction of these events is respectively difficult.

We will present a three-dimensional multiphase model (granules, air, water) that considers the  effects and properties that we deem most important: (i) a sharp water-air interface with low diffusivity, (ii) granular rheology for the landslide, (iii) differentiation between effective pressure and pore pressure, as well as (iv) porosity, dilatancy and permeability. No depth-integration or other form of simplification is applied. The resulting mathematical model is solved with the fluid dynamics toolkit OpenFOAM.


Many effects and processes that are lost in depth-integrated models are directly simulated in our approach. This allows the simulation of complex events with a relatively simple model, however for a large computational cost. The model parameters are widely intrinsic material parameters, which promises a prediction of events without significant parameter optimizations.

We will show results for small scale experiments as well as for a well documented real scale event and will give an outlook on further developments and remaining problems.

How to cite: Rauter, M., Viroulet, S., Gylfadóttir, S. S., Løvholt, F., and Fellin, W.: Granular porous landslide tsunami modelling with OpenFOAM, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4804, 2022.

EGU22-4840 | Presentations | NH5.1

Modern Eyes on the Historical 551 AD Earthquake and Tsunami Offshore Phoenicia, Lebanon of Today 

Amos Salamon, Rachid Omira, and Maria Ana Baptista

On July 9th, 551 AD, a destructive earthquake, estimated magnitude 7.5, impacted the Phoenician coast, nowadays Lebanon, Easternmost Mediterranean. Historical accounts describe a sudden withdrawal of the sea from Berytus (Beirut at the time) and other towns along the Phoenician littoral, for a distance of two miles and then return to its normal position, causing many casualties. Critical reading of the historic descriptions raises questions regarding the possible seismogenic and tsunamigenic sources of this catastrophe. Previous researchers presumed inland and offshore seismogenic sources, and submarine earthquake and submarine landslide as tsunami triggers.

Lebanon lies along the Yammouneh restraining bend of the left-lateral Dead Sea Transform (DST), the boundary between the Sinai Sub-Plate (Africa) and Arabia Plate. The bend resulted from a right stepping offset of the DST and thus induces transpressional deformation formed of several thrust faults, such as the recently identified Mount Lebanon thrust (MLT). On the base of extensive geological investigation, marine survey and submarine study (e.g., Elias et al. 2007), the MLT was found to be an active fault that underlies Lebanon and was interpreted to crop out at the seabed, just offshore the coast. It was thus proposed as the source for both the earthquake and the tsunami. Yet, we were puzzled how the significant retreat of the sea and the return to its original state without noticed inundation, conforms inundation expected from near offshore thrust fault.

First, we constructed a grid of the SRTM Lebanon topography merged with the EMODnet bathymetry of the northeastern Mediterranean Basin, and modified the present-day Beirut coastline so as to reflect its pattern at the time. We then modelled the coseismic deformation of an M7.5 thrust earthquake on the MLT, constraining the vertical offset according to evidence of uplifted marine-cut terraces along the Lebanese coast. The calculated seafloor deformation was used for tsunami wave generation, and non-linear shallow water equation for numerical modelling of tsunami propagation and inundation.

Preliminary assessment shows that, as expected, the simulated scenario exhibits a series of waves. However, the general effect of the simulation is a notable drawdown and minimal inundation, which in our eyes is compatible with the historical observations. The results also suggest that the modelled M7.5 MLT offshore scenario, can explain the 551 AD tsunami description with no need to consider secondary submarine and/or subaerial landslide sources. The review of historical events is thus an important tool to characterize earthquake and tsunami hazards in this area. While further elaboration is certainly needed, we already learnt the need to consider coseismic deformation in tsunami inundation modelling. This effect is critical in the case of near-shore sources leading to coseismic subsidence of coastal areas, which in turn can amplify the expected inundation.

How to cite: Salamon, A., Omira, R., and Baptista, M. A.: Modern Eyes on the Historical 551 AD Earthquake and Tsunami Offshore Phoenicia, Lebanon of Today, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4840, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4840, 2022.

EGU22-5324 | Presentations | NH5.1

Tsunami Ionospheric Monitoring Across the Pacific Ocean and the Southern Atlantic 

Edhah Munaibari, Lucie Rolland, Anthony Sladen, and Bertrand Delouis

As tsunamis propagate across open oceans, they remain largely unseen due to the lack of
adequate sensors. To help better mitigate the tsunami risk, we use a detection method that takes
advantage of the efficient coupling of tsunami waves with the atmosphere. Tsunami-induced
internal gravity waves thus travel upward in the atmosphere, where amplitude amplifies by several
orders of magnitude as the air density decreases with altitude. Once the waves reach the
ionosphere, they put charged particles into motion, creating propagative phenomena known as
Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs). Thanks to the Global Navigation Satellites Systems
(GNSS), such disturbances can be monitored and observed using the Total Electron Content (TEC)
derived from the delay that the ionosphere imposes in the electromagnetic signals transmitted to
the Earth’s surface by the GNSS satellites. Here we show ionospheric TEC signatures following the
passage of three ocean-wide tsunami events: the two tsunamis triggered by the March 4th, 2021
8.1 Mw Kermadec Islands, New Zealand, and the July 29th, 2021 8.2 Mw Perryville, Alaska
earthquakes, as well as across the southern Atlantic following the tsunami generated by the
August 12th, 2021 8.1 Mw Sandwich Islands earthquake. We classify the observed TEC signatures
based on detection reliability and the potential connection to the tsunami wavefield. In addition,
we utilize an analytical model to investigate the source of these identified TEC signatures. Thus, we
ensure their gravity-waves origin and assess the characteristics (wavelength, period, etc.) of such
gravity waves, which is necessary to confirm they originate from the tsunami. Finally, to better
map the tsunami amplitude at the ocean level in various configurations, we examine, compare,
and contrast the amplitude of the identified tsunami-induced TEC signatures from geographically
sparse regions. We account for multiple parameters such as the local magnetic field, the azimuth,
and the distance to the tsunami source. They all affect the TEC signature detection and the
retrieval of the tsunami wavefield and, thus, potentially, the estimated risk.

How to cite: Munaibari, E., Rolland, L., Sladen, A., and Delouis, B.: Tsunami Ionospheric Monitoring Across the Pacific Ocean and the Southern Atlantic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5324, 2022.

EGU22-5642 | Presentations | NH5.1

A hybrid ML-physical modelling approach for efficient approximation of tsunami waves at the coast for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment 

Naveen Ragu Ramalingam, Kendra Johnson, Marco Pagani, and Mario Martina

This work investigates a novel approach combining numerical modelling and machine learning, aimed at developing an efficient procedure that can be used for large scale tsunami hazard and risk studies. Probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment are vital tools to understand the risk of tsunami and mitigate its impact, guiding the risk reduction and transfer activities. Such large-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment require many numerically intensive simulations of the possible tsunami events, involving the tsunami phases of generation, wave propagation and inundation on the coast, which are not always feasible without large computational resources like HPCs. In order to undertake such regional PTHA for a larger proportion of the coast, we need to develop concepts and algorithms for reducing the number of events simulated and more rapidly approximate the simulation results needed. This case study for a coastal region of Japan utilizes a limited number of tsunami simulations from submarine earthquakes along the subduction interface to generate a wave propagation database at different depths, and fits these simulation results to a machine learning model to predict the water depth or velocity of the tsunami wave at the coast. Such a hybrid ML-physical model can be further coupled with an inundation scheme to compute the probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk for the onshore region.

How to cite: Ragu Ramalingam, N., Johnson, K., Pagani, M., and Martina, M.: A hybrid ML-physical modelling approach for efficient approximation of tsunami waves at the coast for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5642, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5642, 2022.

EGU22-6282 | Presentations | NH5.1

Assessing research gaps in probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis 

Joern Behrens, Finn Løvholt, Fatemeh Jalayer, Stefano Lorito, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mathilde Sørensen and the AGITHAR Team

Probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis (PTHA/PTRA) is an emerging scientific discipline within the tsuanmi community and allows potentially to incorporate the diverse sources of uncertainty into disaster prevention, preparedness, and mitigation activities. While there are a number of successful applications of this paradigm, it is still an emerging field with a number of unresolved research questions. 

In a collaborative effort members of the COST Action AGITHAR assessed the existing research gaps for PTHA/PTRA and identified almost 50 different topics worth of further research. An ad hoc expert judgement was conducted to weight these open questions with respect to their expected impact on the quality of the PTHA/PTRA results and their difficulty to be answered. The results of this collaborative effort will be reported highlighting the most challenging and most severe research gaps.

The presentation is based on the following publication:
J. Behrens, F. Løvholt, F. Jalayer, et al. (2021): Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis – A Review of Research Gaps, Frontiers in Earth Science, 9:114, DOI:10.3389/feart.2021.628772.

How to cite: Behrens, J., Løvholt, F., Jalayer, F., Lorito, S., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., and Sørensen, M. and the AGITHAR Team: Assessing research gaps in probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6282, 2022.

Two hazardous storms, Christina (January 2014) and Leslie (October 2018), destructively affected the coast of Portugal and generated extreme sea level variations. We analyzed both the sea-level and meteorological data, and performed numerical simulations to examine the observed wave-induced coastal hazard and identify the background harbor resonances at each port. The results revealed that the sea-level variation is affected by the combined effect of low-frequency sea level rise (surges) and high-frequency (HF) waves. For the 2014 event, we found that wind was the main source of the HF sea surface variation, which excited the background harbor resonance. For the 2018 event, storm surges were significantly stronger and HF amplitudes were mostly induced by the movement of a pressure jump, leading to a meteotsunami formation. Commonly, wind is considered as a principal factor of the storm-generated HF waves, but we show herein  that the atmospheric pressure jump can play an important role in their formation through meteotsunami. The latter, when combined to a storm surge, can cause serious impact on the threatened coastal areas. 

How to cite: Kim, J., Omira, R., and Dutsch, C.: Combined storm and meteotsunami hazards: Data analysis and numerical simulation of Christina (Jan. 2014) and Leslie (Oct. 2018) events on the coast of Portugal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6347, 2022.

EGU22-6439 | Presentations | NH5.1

Tsunami hazard along the Alboran Coast triggered by submarine landslides 

Alain Rabaute, Sara Lafuerza, Maud Thomas, Jacques Sainte-Marie, Apolline El Baz, Anne Mangeney, Elia d'Acremont, Elise Basquin, Denis Mercier, Axel Creach, and Christian Gorini

Historical earthquake records suggest that the Alboran Sea seismicity is mostly triggered by strike-slip faults with little or no vertical throw preventing significant tsunami formation. Although in the North Alboran Sea the Averroes fault may have a tsunamigenic potential, the main active fault system responsible of the last three major earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6) in the South Alboran Sea, the Al-Idrissi fault, has no significant vertical component. This points to submarine landslides as the main potential source of tsunamis for the southern sector of the basin. Our study deals with the tsunamigenic potential of submarine landslides in the southern Alboran Sea, where several deposits are stacked within the last million year of sedimentary cover. We have identified up to 67 landslide events with volumes between 0.01 to 15 km3. The probability of landslide occurrence has been analysed with a logistic regression describing the relationship between a binary response variable (existence or absence of landslide) and a set of predictor variables such as high seafloor gradients and presence of active faults. The analysis of the severity of a given landslide has been investigated based on the estimation of the probability that the landslide reaches a certain (high) level (e.g. tsunami run-up or submarine cable breaks) giving that it has occurred through the extreme value analysis. We have used the Shaltop code simulating landslide run-out on the basis of a depth-averaged model based on the hydrostatic Saint Venant equations and Coulomb-type basal friction considering a Bingham rheology. Our tsunami simulations include Shaltop output scenarios as a source of the generated tsunami through hydrodynamic simulations using the hydrostatic 3D Navier-Stokes code Freshkiss3d. We found that tsunamis waves triggered by submarine landslides on the South Alboran Sea would be no higher than two meters. However, the tsunami would include wavelengths of tens of kilometres translating into important water volumes flooding several areas of around the Alboran coast. 

How to cite: Rabaute, A., Lafuerza, S., Thomas, M., Sainte-Marie, J., El Baz, A., Mangeney, A., d'Acremont, E., Basquin, E., Mercier, D., Creach, A., and Gorini, C.: Tsunami hazard along the Alboran Coast triggered by submarine landslides, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6439, 2022.

EGU22-7194 | Presentations | NH5.1

Meteotsunamis: the hazard in the coastal areas 

Chiara Visentin, Nicola Prodi, Elena Benvenuti, Elena Marrocchino, and Carmela Vaccaro

Meteotsunamis (or meteorological tsunamis) are long, progressive sea waves triggered by external forcings due to meteorological events as e.g., air pressure disturbances, wind gusts and fast-moving storms that are observed in beaches of enclosed basins and/or in ocean waves entering the harbors and bays. The atmospheric disturbance in open sea generates near the surface water the localized waves, that travel at the same speed but with a period ranging from a few minutes to two hours. The waves propagate toward the shore amplifying near the coast due to resonance mechanisms related to the bathymetric characteristics of the waterbody and the topography of the coastal line. Therefore, a meteotsunamis results from two resonance effects: an external resonance between the air pressure disturbance and the long sea waves in the open sea, followed by an internal resonance between the incoming long waves and the harbor/bay eigenmodes.

Meteotsunamis have been observed all around the globe, but the most destructive events happened at a limited number of sites where meteorological and resonance conditions (i.e., intense resonant amplification due to the harbor/bay geomorphology, dynamic instability, frontal passages, gales, squalls, storms, tornadoes, convection cells, and atmospheric gravity waves) are satisfied at the same time. Examples of these sites are the North-East Adriatic Sea, the Balearic Islands (Spain) and the Sicily Strait (Marrobbio). Over the years, this natural phenomenon recorded an increase (higher frequency of Medicanes) and it has caused structural damages to properties and infrastructures along the coastal areas, as well as human casualties.

In the last fifteen years, numerous studies have addressed the issue of producing statistics and hazard estimates for meteotsunamis, even though in situ data are scarce and often available with a low spatial and temporal resolution. Numerical atmospheric-ocean models, mostly running with simulated air-pressure disturbance and calibrated over data of real events, were therefore carried out seeking to establish a shared approach for hazard estimation and meteotsunamis short-term forecast. Selecting appropriate models for this natural phenomenon is important in the view of planning coastal intervention in danger areas and quantifying the hazard in the harbor/bay in relation to geomorphological changes. In this light the PMO-GATE project (Preventing, Managing and Overcoming Natural-Hazards Risks to mitiGATE economic and social impact project) in the framework of the Interreg V Italy-Croatia 2014-2020 Program aims to develop a joint innovative methodology to strengthen and consolidate the collaboration against natural disasters specific to the NUTS Italy-Croatia in order to increase the level of protection, resilience and prevention of natural disasters through shared management methodologies and multi-risk overcoming of extreme events, such as meteotsunamis, to deal with natural risk with greater awareness and effectiveness.

In particular, it is crucial to understand whether and how the hazard estimate would be modified due to coastal changes brought about by the rise in the sea level expected as a consequence of climate changes.

How to cite: Visentin, C., Prodi, N., Benvenuti, E., Marrocchino, E., and Vaccaro, C.: Meteotsunamis: the hazard in the coastal areas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7194, 2022.

EGU22-7972 | Presentations | NH5.1

Tsunami research in Bulgaria: recent developments, gaps and further directions 

Lyubka Pashova*, Ira Didenkulova, and Boyko Ranguelov

Tsunamis are severe natural hazards, causing significant human casualties and material damage to infrastructure, especially in the coastal zone. Research shows that tsunami danger exists for any water basin. The Black Sea is an inland sea, surrounded and crossed by several active faults whose geodynamic characteristics indicate that they can generate a tsunami. Moreover, the Black Sea is also prone to landslide-generated tsunamis and meteotsunamis. Until five decades ago, the existence of a tsunami threat in the Black Sea was ignored until the appearance of books that mention events described by ancient chroniclers interpreting information about tsunami-related phenomena in historical documents.

This work reviews and systematizes the main achievements in the field of tsunami research in Bulgaria from the initial voluntary enthusiastic research, initiated through the FP4-ENV 2C funded project "Genesis and impact of the tsunami on the European coasts" (GITEC-TWO, 1996-1998; https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/ENV4960297) up to the present days. The small number of tsunami events observed in the western Black Sea basin limits our knowledge of the tsunamigenic potential of the Black Sea. The main problems, omissions and challenges are related to establishing the characteristics of tsunami sources, such as kinematic parameters of active faults and their geometry, coastal and underwater landslides and special weather conditions inducing meteotsunamis. This review presents the actions, studies, and observations on the western Black Sea coast, the first steps in building a tsunami warning system and other related activities. Based on the collected information, we identify the research gaps according to the AGITHAR priority matrix (Behrens et al., 2021) and highlight the emerging research areas in the Black Sea basin. The possibility of proposing a framework for assessing multi-hazard and multi-risk due to the cascade effect of different hazards along the Bulgarian coast in the context of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction is also outlined.

Acknowledgements: The authors thank the Bulgarian National Science Fund for co-funding the research under the Contract КП-СЕ-КОСТ/8, 25.09.2020, which is carried out within the framework of COST Action 18109 “Accelerating Global science In Tsunami HAzard and Risk analysis” (AGITHAR; https://www.agithar.uni-hamburg.de/).

 

References:

Behrens J, Løvholt F, Jalayer F, Lorito S, Salgado-Gálvez MA, Sørensen M, Abadie S, Aguirre-Ayerbe I, Aniel-Quiroga I, Babeyko A, Baiguera M, Basili R, Belliazzi S, Grezio A, Johnson K,Murphy S, Paris R, Rafliana I, De Risi R,Rossetto T, Selva J, Taroni M,Del Zoppo M, Armigliato A, Bures V, Cech P, Cecioni C, Christodoulides P, Davies G, Dias F, Bayraktar HB, González M, Gritsevich M, Guillas S, Harbitz CB, Kanoglu U, Macías J, Papadopoulos GA, Polet J, Romano F, Salamon A, Scala A, Stepinac M, Tappin DR, Thio HK, Tonini R, Triantafyllou I, Ulrich T, Varini E, Volpe M and Vyhmeister E (2021) Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps. Front. Earth Sci. 9:628772. doi: 10.3389/feart.2021.628772

* corresponding author

How to cite: Pashova*, L., Didenkulova, I., and Ranguelov, B.: Tsunami research in Bulgaria: recent developments, gaps and further directions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7972, 2022.

EGU22-8069 | Presentations | NH5.1 | Highlight

The Role of Communication and Public Education in Tsunami Early Warnings and Responses in New Zealand 

Rachel Hunt, Carina Fearnley, Simon Day, and Mark Maslin

Individuals and communities are known to respond in different ways to official tsunami warnings and natural tsunami warning signs. This interdisciplinary research seeks to understand how official warnings are decided upon and communicated, and the ways in which warnings can be tailored through educational measures to improve tsunami awareness and preparedness. By improving the understanding of tsunami responses to official warnings and natural warning signs through examining the interactions between different emergency agencies, the mitigation methods for various tsunami hazards, and the numerous approaches to public warning communication, it is proposed that more tsunami resilient communities can be developed in New Zealand.

Online social research methods were used to investigate tsunami early warnings and responses in New Zealand. 106 documents and archives were collected to examine the nature and content of official tsunami information and the methods currently used to communicate these warnings, including director’s guidelines, memorandums of understanding, standard operating procedures, ministerial reviews, and technical standards. 57 semi-structured interviews were conducted with tsunami researchers, warning specialists, and emergency managers to gain an understanding of the opinions held on the effectiveness of official warnings and public education. The participants were recruited from research institutes, national agencies, regional groups, and local councils in New Zealand, Australia, the Pacific Islands, the UK, and the USA.

Three key findings have been established. First, the division of responsibilities between the various research institutes, national agencies, regional groups, and local councils involved in monitoring, disseminating, and responding to official tsunami warnings leads to the potential for error and delay in issuing official warnings, highlighting the need for consistent messages and coordinated responses. Second, whilst New Zealand has the capability to communicate official warnings for distal events, the country relies on educating the public to observe natural warning signs for local events, with emergency drills as well as awareness and preparedness campaigns in place to promote self-evacuation. Third, whilst sirens can be useful for issuing official tsunami warnings in rural or isolated communities, they can create confusion if the tone is misunderstood, whilst Emergency Mobile Alerts (EMAs) can only be used in areas with good reception but provide more information on the approaching hazard.

Further public education around the warning communications issued by national, regional, and local agencies, as well as New Zealand’s vulnerability to distally, regionally, and locally generated tsunamis, would contribute to more effective tsunami responses. The advantages and disadvantages of sirens and EMAs emphasise the value of these two methods of tsunami warning being used holistically, in a multi-channel approach, to provide more thorough warning communication. This research concludes that improvements must be made to emergency agency interaction, tsunami mitigation methods, and warning communication approaches in order to develop tsunami resilience in New Zealand.

How to cite: Hunt, R., Fearnley, C., Day, S., and Maslin, M.: The Role of Communication and Public Education in Tsunami Early Warnings and Responses in New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8069, 2022.

EGU22-8075 | Presentations | NH5.1

Utilising ocean bottom seismometer platforms for tsunami early warning and hazard assessment 

Rui Barbara, Marcella Cilia, Will Reis, Neil Watkiss, Sally Mohr, Phil Hill, and Dan Whealing

Seismic instrumentation is critical for instantaneous tsunami early warning systems as well as assessing long-term risk of tsunami activity in areas with high seismic hazard. Ocean Bottom Seismometer (OBS) systems provide real-time data in areas with appropriate infrastructure or batch data from offline temporary autonomous stations.

OBS systems detect ground motion from seismic waves significantly before detecting any pressure change in the water column from an associated tsunami due to the order of magnitude difference in wave velocity. Güralp’s OBS systems combine seismic and pressure detection in both permanent cabled networks and temporary non-cabled systems utilising near-real-time acoustic transmission. All seismic sensors used in Güralp systems are sensitive to both earthquakes as well as other tsunami-triggering events such as landslides (e.g. Anak Krakatau, 2018) or volcanic eruptions (e.g. Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai, 2022).

Cabled systems provide obvious benefits of real-time data, confidence of installation and flexibility to add additional instrumentation without power consideration. For example, Güralp Orcus and Maris cabled OBS systems are both deployed off the western coast of North America monitoring volcanic and tectonically induced earthquakes that have potential to cause tsunamis. Seismometers at these stations coupled with pressure gauges allow for immediate notification of a threat and subsequent refinement of hazard estimates using surrounding assets such as dedicated DART buoys.

Both Orcus and Maris allow for multiple auxiliary systems to be incorporated into the system while maintaining as well as providing additional installation flexibility for operators. Orcus has facility for both strong & weak motion seismometers in addition to auxiliary sensors while Maris has the unique feature of operating at any angle without the need for a gimbal mechanism, simplifying installation and network design considerations.

The Güralp Aquarius is the latest generation autonomous OBS for short-to-medium term or rapid response campaigns to monitor areas with increased seismic and tsunami hazard. Aquarius also uses omnidirectional capabilities as well as acoustic communication of seismic data to the surface to improve operator confidence of installation. Acoustic communication also allows for near-real-time communication with land-based warning systems after a significant seismic event in anticipation of a tsunami. This can be verified and communicated after the initial seismic wave using onboard pressure gauges. In areas where surface communication is not required, intelligent battery systems optimise deployment lengths beyond 18 months for maximum data/cost benefit.

Güralp is also pioneering the use of seismic sensors and auxiliary equipment within Science Monitoring And Reliable Telecommunications (“SMART”) cables which have already been shown to be useful in incorporating pressure gauges to detect tsunami events. These cables utilise regular telecommunication cables making uses of their natural communication and power source qualities to improve sensor network coverage. Güralp is currently manufacturing a demonstration system to be deployed in the Ionian Sea, monitoring seismic and volcanic activity with the aim of indicating practicality and data quality using this installation method.

How to cite: Barbara, R., Cilia, M., Reis, W., Watkiss, N., Mohr, S., Hill, P., and Whealing, D.: Utilising ocean bottom seismometer platforms for tsunami early warning and hazard assessment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8075, 2022.

EGU22-8236 | Presentations | NH5.1

Submarine landslide tsunamis in fjord environments: the case of Pangnirtung Fjord, eastern Baffin Island (Nunavut, Canada) 

Glauco Gallotti, Philip Sedore, Alberto Armigliato, Alexandre Normandeau, Vittorio Maselli, and Filippo Zaniboni

Fjord environments are subject to submarine mass wasting events due to their steep slopes, high sedimentation rates, and tectonic activity driven by glacial-isostatic rebound. In specific cases, these events can generate tsunami waves whose coastal heights are strongly influenced by the physiography, both subaerial and submarine, of the fjord. Here we present modeling simulations of a potential tsunami initiated by a submarine landslide in Pangnirtung Fjord, eastern Baffin Island (Nunavut, Canada). Pangnirtung Fjord, a 43 km long, 1 to 3 km wide, and 165 m deep fjord, is fed by numerous rivers that transport sediment from the surrounding high-relief, partially glaciated landscape. Collapse of the Kolik River delta, situated directly across from the hamlet of Pangnirtung, is the likely cause of the largest submarine landslide (2.1 km2) identified in the fjord using multibeam bathymetric data and 3.5 kHz sub-bottom profiles collected in 2019. The mapped landslide extends across the flat basin and features a blocky deposit directly downslope of the delta. The landslide dynamics, the consequent water waves generation and propagation were simulated by means of codes developed by the Tsunami Research Team of Bologna University. The landslide parameters characterizing the downslope motion have been retrieved by matching the landslide dynamics with the observed deposit. As the landslide impulses to the water column are considered, the propagation of the waves inside the fjord is determined through the shallow water approximation of the Navier-Stokes set of equations. The waves reach the hamlet (3.5 km from the landslide source) in 200 s, and the surrounding fjord coasts in approximately 800 s. Maximum wave height values of approximately 2 m were modeled and used to construct an inundation map for the area, over a 2 m regularly spaced grid for the hamlet of Pangnirtung.

How to cite: Gallotti, G., Sedore, P., Armigliato, A., Normandeau, A., Maselli, V., and Zaniboni, F.: Submarine landslide tsunamis in fjord environments: the case of Pangnirtung Fjord, eastern Baffin Island (Nunavut, Canada), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8236, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8236, 2022.

EGU22-8374 | Presentations | NH5.1

Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels: application to damage data of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami 

Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebarahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley

Methodology:

A fragility model expresses the probability of exceeding certain damage levels for a given level of intensity for a specific class of buildings or infrastructure. An empirical tsunami fragility curve for a given damage level is derived based on observed pairs of data for the tsunami intensity measure and the corresponding damage level. Tsunami inundation depth and/or flow velocity are usually adopted as scalar intensity measures (they can also be employed together as a vector-valued intensity measure). Physical damage levels are usually defined in a hierarchical manner, implying discrete, mutually exclusive, and collectively exhaustive (MECE) damage states. This means that the fragility curves for consecutive hierarchical damage levels must not intersect. It is clear that by fitting empirical fragility curves to each single damage level, this condition is not automatically satisfied. To overcome this problem, ordered (“parallel”) fragility models or partially ordered models have been adopted in the literature to derive fragility curves for MECE damage states. Empirical tsunami fragility curves are usually constructed using generalized linear regression models by adopting probit, logit, or the complementary loglog link functions. As far as model comparison and selection are concerned, established statistical approaches have been used in recent literature to identify the optimal link function among those mentioned above. Moreover, for estimating the uncertainty in the resulting empirical fragility curves, bootstrap resampling has been commonly used.

The present work proposes a simulation-based Bayesian method for inference and model class selection to perform ensemble modelling of the tsunami fragility curves for MECE damage states and the related uncertainties for a given class of buildings. The method uses adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation (MCMC), based on likelihood estimation using point-wise intensity values, to estimate the fragility model parameters and the uncertainties. Among the set of viable fragility models considered, Bayesian model class selection is used to identify the simplest model that fits the data best (i.e., is a parsimonious model). The proposed method provides consistent parameter estimation and confidence intervals for MECE the damage states and identifies the best fragility model class among the pool of viable models, based on a single set of simulation realizations. The whole procedure is provided as open-source software on the site of the European Tsunami Risk Service (https://eurotsunamirisk.org/software/) and is also available as a standalone docker application.

Application:

As the case-study application, the central South Pacific region-wide tsunami on September 29, 2009 is used. The tsunami was triggered by an unprecedented earthquake doublet (Mw 8.1 and Mw 8.0). The tsunami seriously impacted numerous locations in the central South Pacific. Herein, the damage data related to 120 brick masonry residential buildings associated with the reconnaissance survey sites of American Samoa and Samoa islands were utilized as a proof of concept. A six-tier damage scale is considered, and tsunami inundation depth has been used as the intensity measure.

 

Keywords: probabilistic tsunami risk analysis, tsunami fragility, Bayesian inference, model class selection

How to cite: Jalayer, F., Ebarahimian, H., Trevlopoulos, K., and Bradley, B.: Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels: application to damage data of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8374, 2022.

EGU22-8520 | Presentations | NH5.1

Effects of coastal roughness on long wave runup 

Ira Didenkulova, Ahmed Abdalazeez, Denys Dutykh, and Petr Denissenko

Studies of the influence of coast roughness on run-up height have numerous applications to tsunami problem. It happens when tsunami propagates over the urban area and houses and coastal structures represent roughness elements, which help to dissipate wave energy and reduce maximum tsunami inundation and at the same time can break due to tsunami loading. In this paper we focus on this topic from both points of view and study experimentally and numerically reduction of wave run-up height due to the bed roughness and corresponding wave loading on roughness elements.

Experiments have been performed in a 307 m long, 7 m deep and 5 m wide Large Wave Flume in Hannover, Germany. The experimental setup contained a 251 m long section of the constant depth, which was kept at the depth of h = 3.5 m during all tests, and a 1:6 slope section. A total of 16 wave gauges were mounted along the flume to reconstruct the incident wave field and to study its nonlinear deformation. During the tests, two video cameras and a capacitance probe were used to measure wave run-up on a sloping beach. Two cameras were set up to film the surf zone. One video record was used to calibrate the run-up data measured by the capacitance probe. An additional video record was used to determine the shape of the water surface, which was illuminated by a laser sheet along the direction of wave propagation.

Logs with rectangular 10×10 cm cross-section were used as roughness elements and the force acting on logs was recorded. Two logs were equipped with force transducers; one located at the unperturbed shoreline 272 m and the one located at 276 m mark. Four roughness configurations were considered, with logs every 1 m, 2 m, and 4 m which was compared to the smooth, zero log baseline condition. Waves of different height, period and shape have been used as input signals.

Experimentally shown, that run-up height has a strong non-linear dependence on the amplitude of incident wave and the number of roughness elements. Force acting on the roughness elements is related to the amplitude of the incident wave during the run-up phase and is defined by the flowing down near-slope layer when the bulk of the fluid recedes. At higher wave amplitudes, the average force (total momentum) imposed by roughness elements on the fluid is directed up the slope

Described experiments have been used to validate two numerical models (nondispersive shallow water model and dispersive model based on modified Peregrine equations) and to evaluate the potential of these models to simulate wave attenuation due to sea bed roughness. To model the bottom friction, we used both Manning’s and Chezy’s roughness laws. The results of this work are also discussed.

How to cite: Didenkulova, I., Abdalazeez, A., Dutykh, D., and Denissenko, P.: Effects of coastal roughness on long wave runup, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8520, 2022.

EGU22-9174 | Presentations | NH5.1

Tsunami hazard scenarios for the northern Bulgarian Black Sea coast 

Reneta Raykova and Lyuba Dimova

The Black Sea is located in the Anatolian sector of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic system. In this region the African and Arab plates are moving to the north and to the west colliding with the Eurasia tectonic plate. In this study we focused on the northern Bulgarian Black Sea coast, where devastating earthquakes occurred in the past, during the Ist century BC, 543 AD, 1444 and 1901, all of them with estimated magnitudes M>7.0 causing tsunami waves. An evaluation of the possible seismic sources and maximum credible earthquake magnitude is made to build tsunami hazard scenarios for the northern Bulgarian coastline, including Shabla-Kaliakra seismic zone. The numerical code UBO-TSUFD is used for the tsunami simulations, coupled with bathymetry and relief data. The initial conditions of the generated tsunami waves are calculated using the method proposed by Okada supplemented with focal mechanisms information and fault geometry. We consider three seismic sources (SS I, SS II and SS III) which are tested for three different earthquake magnitudes M7.0, M7.5 and M8.0. To increase the resolution of the results we use nested grids, as the finest one (space resolution 50 m) is focused on the coastline between the city of Varna and Cape Kaliakra. We built simplified local tsunami hazard maps based on the computed water column on the coast for all nine tsunami scenarios in the studied region. The potentially threatened inundation zones are marked with different colors and vary between 0 and 5 m, depending on the selected magnitude. SS I poses the highest risk of potential tsunami flooding with the calculated water column for the northern part of the Bulgarian coast reaching more than 1.5 m, even for M7.0. When M7.5 is considered, the tsunami heights rise to 2.3 m and assuming M8.0, the water column exceed 4 m. The gulf of Bourgas is partially protected by Cape Emine, located to the north. It should be noted that the Romanian coast and more precisely the shores to the north of Constanta are seriously affected by the modelled scenarios, as the calculated inundation heights exceed 2.5 m for M8.0. The results for SS III show the lowest values of the vertical water column inland. The modeling estimates the sea level variations in certain points computing synthetic mareograms. Virtual mareograms near Varna, Balchik and Albena resort displays the evolution of the initiated tsunami heights in time. SS II and SS III have similar behavior for all three magnitudes. The dominant tsunamigenic source with extremely high waves is SS I.

In addition, the impact of these three seismic sources on the entire Black Sea coast is examined through the coarse grid of 500 m, the propagation field and the maximum computed tsunami heights.

This study is funded by the Bulgarian National Science Fund, grant number CP-06-COST-7/24.09.2020. LD contributed to the European Cooperation in Science and Technology COST project “AGITHAR-Accelerating Global science In Tsunami HAzard and Risk analysis”.

How to cite: Raykova, R. and Dimova, L.: Tsunami hazard scenarios for the northern Bulgarian Black Sea coast, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9174, 2022.

EGU22-9486 | Presentations | NH5.1

Earthquake scenarios for the Hellenic Arc from 3D dynamic rupture modeling: implications for tsunami hazard 

Sara Aniko Wirp, Thomas Ulrich, Lukas Krenz, Michael Bader, Stefano Lorito, and Alice-Agnes Gabriel

The Hellenic Arc is an active seismogenic zone in the Mediterranean Sea that hosted at least two historical M≥8 earthquakes, which both caused destructive tsunamis. The low-angle geometry of its subduction interface could promote shallow slip amplification, enhancing seafloor displacement.
Long-term seismic-probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (S-PTHA, e.g., Scala et al., 2020) and early warning systems typically rely on kinematic models and Okada's analytical solution to compute static seafloor displacements. The static displacement is then used to source tsunami models. However, the complex interaction of earthquake dynamics and tsunami-genesis may not be fully captured.

We recently demonstrated mechanically consistent dynamic rupture models in generic megathrust settings informed from long-term geodynamic modeling that can provide building blocks toward integrating physics-based dynamic rupture modeling in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (Wirp et al., 21). We here present a range of 3D multi-physics, high-resolution dynamic rupture subduction earthquake scenarios accounting for the complex slab geometry of the Hellenic Arc. We vary hypocenter locations, which leads to a wide range of rupture speeds, extent of shallow fault slip, and moment magnitudes. 
Our dynamic rupture models include highly resolved bathymetry and topography data and detailed knowledge of the tectonic structure of the Hellenic Arc (seismic velocity structure, stresses, and strengths). We use the slab geometry from the European Database of Seismogenic Faults (EDSF, Basili et al., 2013) to create a 3D dynamic rupture scenario that covers great parts of the Mediterranean Sea. The initial conditions in our models are constrained on the subduction zone scale (Ulrich et al., 2021) and specified for the Hellenic Arc region.

Only part of the Hellenic Arc is fully seismically coupled (e.g., Laigle et al., 2004) and most of the convergence is assumed to occur as aseismic creep. We follow Ramos et al. (2021) and apply different friction parameters accounting for high or low coupling of the plate interface.
Our modeling suggests that margin-wide rupture would yield an Mw 9.3 earthquake. More reasonable smaller magnitude earthquakes are obtained by increasing the along-arc complexity of the reference model. Different hypocenter locations result in remarkable differences in shallow fault slip penetrating into velocity-strengthening regions, which translate into strong variations of the final seafloor displacement across scenarios. 
In additional models with partially consolidated and totally unconsolidated sediments (Ulrich et al., 2021) we show that off-fault plastic yielding, which limits shallow fault slip, may drastically increase the seafloor uplift. 
Finally, we explore a novel 3D fully coupled earthquake-tsunami modeling approach (Lotto and Dunham, 2018; Krenz et al., 2021) by adding a water layer to the modeling domain. This enables simulating earthquake dynamics, acoustic waves, and the resulting tsunami simultaneously. The fully coupled model will capture the dynamics of the entire tsunami-genesis in a single simulation, overcoming typical approximations for standard earthquake-tsunami coupling workflows. 

We envision that mechanically consistent dynamic rupture models can provide building blocks toward combined, self-consistent, and physics-based Seismic and Tsunami Hazard Analysis.

How to cite: Wirp, S. A., Ulrich, T., Krenz, L., Bader, M., Lorito, S., and Gabriel, A.-A.: Earthquake scenarios for the Hellenic Arc from 3D dynamic rupture modeling: implications for tsunami hazard, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9486, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9486, 2022.

EGU22-10179 | Presentations | NH5.1

Estimating Time Series of Tsunami Inundation using One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks for Early Warning. 

Patricio A. Catalan, Jorge Núñez, Carlos Valle, Natalia Zamora, and Alvaro Valderrama

Tsunamis have the potential to cause widespread damage and loss of life over large swaths of coastal areas. To mitigate their effects, both in the long term and during emergency situations, an accurate, detailed and timely assessment of the hazard is essential. Here, an enhanced method for estimating tsunami time series using a uni-dimensional convolutional neural network model is presented, with the aim of reducing the time and computing capacity required by a high-resolution numerical modeling. While the use of deep learning for this problem is not new,  most of existing research has focused on the determination of the capability of a network to reproduce inundation values. However, for the context of Tsunami Early Warning, it is equally relevant to assess whether the networks can predict the absence of inundation. Hence, the network model was adjusted for the bays of Valparaíso, Viña del Mar and Coquimbo in central Chile, based on a set of 6800 scenarios with Mw 8.0-9.2. Tentative models were trained with time series from low- and high-resolution numerical modeling, to recreate the tsunami time series of control points on land. The objective was to reproduce the inundation high resolution time series, when the network was fed with low resolution offshore data. The approach considered 1075 (15%) scenarios to test the model, and 5783 (85%) scenarios to adjust (train and validate) the model. Different performance metrics are employed, particularly the RMSE measured with respect to peak flow depth and arrival times. Critically, the number of false alerts and alerts not issued was analyzed, which was considered a relevant performance owing to the wide range of magnitudes tested that led to an unbalance between scenarios that inundate and the ones that not. A notable outcome in this study shows the network is capable of reproducing inundation, either for small or large amplitudes, and also of no inundation. To further assess the performance, the model was tested with three existing tsunamis and compared with actual inundation metrics at three cities with different hydrodynamic response. The results obtained are promising, and the proposed model could become a reliable alternative for the calculation of tsunami intensity measures (TIMs) in a near to real time manner, with a network model forecasting where sea surface and geodetic data are not readily available, as occurs in many countries. This could complement existing early warning systems to reduce uncertainties involved in the decision making process.

How to cite: Catalan, P. A., Núñez, J., Valle, C., Zamora, N., and Valderrama, A.: Estimating Time Series of Tsunami Inundation using One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks for Early Warning., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10179, 2022.

EGU22-10261 | Presentations | NH5.1

Tsunami propagation and high-resolution inundation modelling of the 2017 Karrat rock avalanche and potential future tsunamis from proximal slope failures 

Finn Løvholt, Sylfest Glimsdal, Carl Harbitz, Kristian Svennevig, Marie Keiding, and Jens Jørgen Møller

On June 17, 2017, a 40 Mm3 rock avalanche generated a tsunami that impacted several coastal communities in Karrat Fjord, Central West Greenland. The tsunami run-up was 10-12 m high in the nearest village 30 kilometres away from the rock avalanche and caused four fatalities. The two villages most heavily affected are still evacuated. In the aftermath of this event, several unstable rock slopes have been discovered proximal to the 2017 rock avalanche. One of these volumes, coined Karrat 1, has a volume of about 0.5 km3 and is hence at least an order of magnitude larger than the volume involved in the 2017 event. To put this in perspective, it has a volume 2-3 times larger than the 2018 Anak Krakatau tsunami that led to more than 400 fatalities in Sunda Strait, Indonesia (which is also much more heavily populated). Hence, the Karrat 1 worst case scenario poses a threat to a much larger area than the event that took place in 2017 and could potentially affect the whole fjord system. In this study, we quantify the tsunami hazard from this unstable rock slope as well as the 2017 event. We first provide a set of landslide tsunami simulations using a frictional-collisional Voellmy type model coupled to a tsunamis model for the event in 2017 and compare it with observations. We found that the model results agree closely with observations of the tsunami run-up heights, observations of the tsunami arrival times, and the wave periods. The 2017 tsunami model was then used to calibrate the landslide source model for the future hazard, simulating the Karrat 1 landslide tsunami with an included uncertainty range. Extreme run-up heights (10-70 m) are found for the nearest villages, as well as complete inundation of entire low-lying villages, some more than 100 km away from the landslide release area. The large modelled run-up heights, involving extreme run-up heights and relatively short arrival times for the nearby villages, demonstrate the need for better understanding of the risk as well as risk-reducing measures. With few or no previous subaerial events that have taken place historically of this scale, the possible implications of a catastrophic release are widespread, but they also imply substantial uncertainties.

How to cite: Løvholt, F., Glimsdal, S., Harbitz, C., Svennevig, K., Keiding, M., and Møller, J. J.: Tsunami propagation and high-resolution inundation modelling of the 2017 Karrat rock avalanche and potential future tsunamis from proximal slope failures, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10261, 2022.

EGU22-10756 | Presentations | NH5.1

SMART Cables: Integration of Environmental Sensors Into Submarine Telecommunications Cables for Improved Ocean Monitoring 

Matthew Fouch, Stephen Lentz, Bruce Howe, and Brad Avenson

Innovative deep ocean monitoring technologies are crucial to catalyzing fundamental improvements in mitigating natural disasters, reducing human vulnerabilities, and understanding environmental threats. An attractive but untapped resource is the global submarine fiber optic cable network, which carries over 95% of international internet traffic. Key components of undersea fiber optic cable systems are repeaters, which are placed every 60-100 km along the cable to provide optical signal amplification. Integrating environmental sensors, including seismic, pressure, and temperature sensors, would enable real-time data collection for environmental and infrastructure threat reduction, natural disaster mitigation, and cable system monitoring. 

A unique technology that will revolutionize the utility of these cables is the SMART (Sensor Monitoring And Reliable Telecommunications) cable concept. Although the concept has been evaluated for over 10 years by an international suite of agencies and institutions, developing a SMART repeater requires substantial investment in research and development to validate a technology that could transform an industry. To date, no commercial manufacturer has allocated the resources to produce a prototype SMART repeater. To bridge this gap, we have obtained support by the National Science Foundation’s Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program to develop a benchtop prototype SMART repeater. As part of an international effort to help develop a SMART Cable system for the New Caledonia - Vanuatu region, we also have received support from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation as part of a team led by the University of Hawai`i.

Best-in-class SMART repeater sensors include a 3-axis accelerometer, absolute pressure gauge, and temperature sensor. Included with the sensors are data acquisition circuits with suitable dynamic range and precision, integration around a common communications module, an interface suitable for fiber optic cable spans up to 120 km in length, the software and firmware necessary to support the data path from the sensors to data storage servers, and precision timing for both time-stamps and frequency reference. The SMART repeater sensor system design is modular, thereby containing branch points for different sensors, as well as incorporation in different repeater housings or as standalone units. 

SMART Cables will be particularly well suited for providing essential tsunami monitoring data, particularly from the seismic and pressure sensors. More specifically, SMART repeaters provide a unique opportunity to develop significantly more extensive sensor networks of real-time ocean bottom monitoring, filling in critical near-field and azimuthal gaps frequently encountered in earthquake monitoring. Further, our SMART repeater sensor system design includes the option for either acceleration or velocity monitoring, thereby enabling better measurement of amplitudes of tsunamigenic subduction zone earthquakes while providing a lower noise sensor in ocean basins. Further, data from SMART Cables will facilitate the detection of other tsunamigenic sources, including underwater landslides. We will present the results of our sensor development efforts and upcoming opportunities for SMART Cable installations.

How to cite: Fouch, M., Lentz, S., Howe, B., and Avenson, B.: SMART Cables: Integration of Environmental Sensors Into Submarine Telecommunications Cables for Improved Ocean Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10756, 2022.

EGU22-10966 | Presentations | NH5.1

The extreme sea-level event of 14-15 October 2016 on the coasts of British Columbia and Washington State caused by Typhoon "Songda" 

Alexander Rabinovich, Jadranka Šepić, and Richard Thomson

From 12 to 16 October 2016, a series of three strong low-pressure systems, including typhoon “Songda”, passed over the coasts of southern British Columbia (BC) and Washington State (WA). Typhoon “Songda” was generated on 2 October about 1,000 miles to the southwest of Hawaii. After passing along the coast of Japan, it turned eastward, crossed the Pacific Ocean, arriving off the coast of North America on 12 October, where it merged with local extratropical cyclones propagating along the coast of Vancouver Island.  These three lows passed across the western coast of the island on 14-15 October, generating strong surface currents if the offshore region and significant sea level oscillations, including storm surges, seiches and infragravity waves along southern BC and northern Washington. Oceanic observations of the event included HF WERA radar data, offshore bottom sea pressure measurements from the Ocean Network Canada (ONC) observatories and sea level records from BC and WA tide gauges. Meteorological data analyzed included radar records, satellite imaginary, reanalysis synoptic data, and air pressure and wind surface measurements of remarkable spatial and temporal resolution from more than 150 school network stations. These extensive datasets allowed for a detailed tracking of atmospheric processes responsible for strong ocean surface currents and sea-level oscillations. Maximum currents of up to 50 cm/s were measured by the HF radar. The surge heights on the southern BC and northern WA coasts were higher than 80 cm, with maximum storm surge observed at La Push, WA (117 cm) and New Westminster, BC (101 cm). A particularly interesting phenomenon was observed on the west side of Vancouver Island, beginning at Tofino, where the tide gauge record indicated a sharp, knife-like 40-cm increase in sea level with a peak value at 07:01 UTC on 14 October. Slightly lower sharp sea level peaks were also observed at Bamfield, Port Alberni and Port Renfrew. The high negative correlation between sea level and atmospheric pressure is consistent with the inverted barometer (IB) effect. Sharp sea level peaks at Tofino, Bamfield and Port Alberni are shown to be related to the specific shapes of the air pressure variations at these sites (the minimum atmospheric pressure at Tofino was 971.4 hPa), but the sea level response was 1.5-2.5 times greater than the IB effect, demonstrating the topographic amplification of sea levels in the respective areas. Such oscillations at Tofino and surrounding regions, may be described as a “meteorological tsunami” that for this specific case has a character of a forced solitary wave.

How to cite: Rabinovich, A., Šepić, J., and Thomson, R.: The extreme sea-level event of 14-15 October 2016 on the coasts of British Columbia and Washington State caused by Typhoon "Songda", EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10966, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10966, 2022.

EGU22-11303 | Presentations | NH5.1

Numerical Tsunami Inundation Modeling in Ambon City, Indonesia for Potential Earthquake and Landslide at Ambon bay 

Tatok Yatimantoro, Muhammad Harvan, Suci Dewi Anugrah, Daryono Daryono, Bambang Setiyo Prayitno, and Suko Prayitno Adi

A tsunami numerical inundation modeling in the Ambon city was developed by considering large earthquakes along the Ambon bay strike-slip fault and triggering submarine landslide as the tsunami source. 
The simulation was conducted using Comcot (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model) with a nested grid system in the spherical coordinate system. The four different spatial grid sizes of 60 (layer 1), 15 (layer 2), 3.75 (layer 3), and 0.9375 (layer 4) arc-sec were used in the computation. The linear shallow-water theory with bottom friction was applied for layers 1 -3, meanwhile, layer 4 used the non-linear shallow-water theory with manning roughness coefficient and detail bathymetry data. 
The single segmentation of earthquake scenarios with magnitudes Mw 7.2 was assumed. The earthquake then triggers submarine landslides in some areas around Ambon city. The landslide area was approached by Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) value and historical data.
The results showed that in Ambon city the first tsunami wave arrived 18 min after the earthquake with a maximum flow depth of 7.4 m and inundation distance around 1.2 km. These results show that Ambon city has a risk of tsunami threat from earthquakes and submarine landslides. Therefore, it is necessary the tsunami hazard preparedness by the government and communities.

How to cite: Yatimantoro, T., Harvan, M., Anugrah, S. D., Daryono, D., Prayitno, B. S., and Adi, S. P.: Numerical Tsunami Inundation Modeling in Ambon City, Indonesia for Potential Earthquake and Landslide at Ambon bay, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11303, 2022.

One of the most critical part of tsunami warning systems is the so-called “last mile”, i.e., informing promptly residents and tourists about a possible impending inundation.

In Italy, one of the most recent activities to reach this goal is the implementation of the Tsunami Ready (TR) Program, developed under the aegis of UNESCO and achieved in synergy between INGV, ISPRA and the Italian Civil Protection Department (the three components of the Italian Tsunami Warning System - SiAM).

In 2020, the path towards the TR recognition has started in three Italian pilot municipalities: Minturno, Palmi, Marzamemi. The response of local authorities has been enthusiastic in all three cases, despite numerous bureaucratic obstacles to involvement and membership.

Italy as a NEAM member aims to reach the goal of 100% of communities at risk of tsunami prepared for and resilient to tsunamis by 2030 through the implementation of the UNESCO/IOC Tsunami Ready Programme.

Several developments are going on because all participants are aware that TR is a virtuous model for dealing with tsunami risk, with numerous implications in terms of education and responsibilities for the harmful consequences of a tsunami.

First of all, the direct involvement of citizens in the education and information process represents a significant step change of TR. It is achieved through the participation of citizens’ representatives in the TR Local Board, which is responsible for monitoring the development of procedures and certifying that a suite of 12 target parameters identified in the TR guidelines have been accomplished.

It is important to remind that the recognition as Tsunami Ready community must be also approved by the National TR Board and by the UNESCO ICG.

Secondly, the existence of internationally accredited guidelines (IOC UNESCO n. 74 and its ongoing updates) represents a reliable parameter for determining the behavior to be adopted by public decision-makers.  In case of harmful events, the compliance with these parameters can contribute to mitigating the (possible) criminal reproach against civil protection officers charged in risk management.

How to cite: Valbonesi, C.: Tsunami Ready Programme in NEAM region: strategies, responsibilities and further advancements to protect communities from tsunamis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11876, 2022.

EGU22-12471 | Presentations | NH5.1

A bed pressure correction for depth-averaged granular flow models to ensure the physical threshold of motion 

Enrique Fernandez-Nieto, François Bouchut, Juan Manuel Delgado Sánchez, Gladys Narbona-Reina, and Anne Mangeney

Depth-averaged models, such as the Savage-Hutter model with Coulomb or Pouliquen friction laws, are usually considered to simulate aerial and submarine avalanches. In particular,  submarine avalanches can be the source of a tsunami. These models are presented in local coordinates over the topography or a reference bottom. We show in this work that  classical models do not in some cases preserve the physical threshold of motion. On the one hand, the simulated granular mass can start to flow  even if the slope angle of its free surface is lower than the repose angle of the granular material involved. On the other hand, the granular mass can stay at rest being the slope angle of the free surface higher than the repose angle of the material. Several numerical tests are presented  to illustrate these problems related to classical depth averaged models. In this work we also propose an initial correction which ensures that the model preserves, up to the second order, the physical threshold of motion defined by the repose angle of the material. Several numerical tests are presented, by comparing also with experimental data to illustrate the effect of the proposed correction.

How to cite: Fernandez-Nieto, E., Bouchut, F., Delgado Sánchez, J. M., Narbona-Reina, G., and Mangeney, A.: A bed pressure correction for depth-averaged granular flow models to ensure the physical threshold of motion, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12471, 2022.

Tsunami warning systems currently focus on the first parameters of the earthquake, based on a 24-hour monitoring of earthquakes, seismic data processing (Magnitude, location), and tsunami risk modelling at basin scale.

The French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT) runs actually two tsunami modelling tools where the water height at the coast is not calculated (i.e., Cassiopee based on a pre-computed database, and Calypso based on real time simulations at basin scale). A complete calculation up to the coastal impact all along the French Mediterranean or Atlantic coastline is incompatible with real time near field or regional forecast, as nonlinear models require fine topo-bathymetric data nearshore and indeed a considerable computation time (> 45 min). Predicting coastal flooding in real time is then a major challenge in near field context, the aim being a rapid determination of shoreline amplitude and real time estimation of run-up and currents. A rapid prediction of water heights at the coast by amplification laws or derived transfer function can be used to linearly approximate the amplitude at the coastline, with error bars on calculated values within a factor 2 at best. However, such approach suffers from a limited consideration of local effects and no run-up estimation.

The goal is there to add complexity to the predicted models through deep learning techniques, which are newly explored approaches for rapid tsunami forecasting. Several architectures, treatments and settings are being explored to quickly transform a deep ocean simulation result into a coastal flooding model. The models provide predictions of maximum height and run-up, maximum retreat, and currents in 1 second. However, such approach is dependent of a large scenario base for learning. This work presents preliminary comparisons of the coastal impact captured from nonlinear time consuming tsunami simulations (ground truth) with predicted localised tsunami responses provided by rapid forecasting deep learning approaches at 10 m resolution along the French Mediterranean, for several earthquake scenarios.

How to cite: Andraud, P., Gailler, A., Sprunck, T., and Vayatis, N.: Deep learning models  exploration for rapid forecasting of coastal tsunami impact in near field context – application to the French Mediterranean coastline., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12716, 2022.

EGU22-13387 | Presentations | NH5.1

Physics-based earthquake-tsunami modelling of the Húsavík-Flatey transform fault zone in North Iceland 

Fabian Kutschera, Sara Aniko Wirp, Bo Li, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Benedikt Halldórsson, and Claudia Abril

The ~100 km long Húsavík Flatey Fault Zone (HFFZ) in North Iceland is the largest linear transform fault zone in Iceland composed of multiple fault segments that localise both strike-slip and normal movements, agreeing with a transtensional deformation pattern (Garcia and Dhont, 2005). With maximum seismogenic potential larger than Mw 7 and located primarily offshore, the HFFZ subjects several nearby coastal communities to potentially significant tsunami hazard from strong earthquake occurrence on the HFFZ. Namely, tsunami hazard assessment of submarine strike-slip fault systems in transtensional tectonic settings worldwide has received increased attention since the unexpected and devastating local tsunami in the Palu Bay following the 2018 Mw 7.5 Sulawesi earthquake in Indonesia.

Our goal is to carry out a physics-based assessment of the tsunami potential of the HFFZ using both a one-way linked dynamic earthquake rupture and shallow water equations tsunami workflow (Madden et al., 2021) as well as a fully-coupled elastic-acoustic earthquake-tsunami simulation (Krenz et al., SC 2021). We start by simulating physics-based dynamic rupture models with varying hypocenter locations with SeisSol (https://github.com/SeisSol/SeisSol), a scientific open-source software for 3D dynamic earthquake rupture simulation (www.seissol.org). SeisSol, a flagship code of the ChEESE project (https://cheese-coe.eu) and part of the project TEAR (https://www.tear-erc.eu), enables us to explore newly inferred simple and complex fault geometries that have been compiled and proposed in the ChEESE project by using unstructured tetrahedral meshes. The linked workflow uses the time-dependent seafloor displacement output from SeisSol to initialise bathymetry perturbations within sam(oa)²-flash. The dynamically adaptive, parallel software sam(oa)²-flash (https://gitlab.lrz.de/samoa/samoa) solves the hydrostatic shallow water equations (Meister, 2016). Here we consider the contribution of the horizontal ground deformation of realistic bathymetry to the vertical displacement following Tanioka and Satake (1996). Our second approach is based on the recent development of SeisSol which allows us to include a water layer in the earthquake-tsunami simulation to account for fully-coupled 3D elastic, acoustic and tsunami wave generation and propagation simultaneously.


The HFFZ is exposed to a laterally homogeneous regional stress field constrained from seismo-tectonic observations, knowledge of fault fluid pressurisation, and the Mohr-Coulomb theory of frictional failure. We are able to model large Mw 6.7 to 7.3 dynamic rupture scenarios that can generate up to 2m of vertical coseismic offset. Our simulations are controlled by spontaneous fault interaction in terms of dynamic and static stress transfer and rupture jumping across the complex fault network. The models show a dynamic rake rotation of ±20° near the surface, indicating the presence of dip-slip components. Shallow fault slip of up to 8m and off-fault plastic yielding contribute to the tsunami genesis. The sea surface height anomaly (ssha), which is measured at synthetic tide gauge stations along the coastline and defined as the deviation from the mean sea level, provides an estimate about the impact of the tsunami. Our physically informed worst-case tsunami simulation causes a total ssha amplitude of ~1m. We conclude that the HFFZ has the capability to generate localised tsunamigenic earthquakes potentially posing significant hazards to the coastline communities.

How to cite: Kutschera, F., Wirp, S. A., Li, B., Gabriel, A.-A., Halldórsson, B., and Abril, C.: Physics-based earthquake-tsunami modelling of the Húsavík-Flatey transform fault zone in North Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13387, 2022.

EGU22-879 | Presentations | TS4.5

Imaging evolution of Cascadia slow-slip event using high-rate GPS 

Yuji Itoh, Yosuke Aoki, and Junichi Fukuda

The short-term slow slip event (SSE), a class of slow earthquakes which has duration of a few to tens of days, is typically detected and modeled from daily static Global Positioning System (GPS) data. However, the daily GPS data cannot image the sub-daily SSE processes, so underlying mechanisms of SSEs have been still elusive. By processing the raw GPS observables in the kinematic analysis approach, we can obtain surface deformation field at the subdaily interval, which has great potential to overcome the time resolution issue present in the daily static GPS data. Although the kinematic GPS coordinates are known much noisier (~ cm) than the daily static coordinates (~ a few mm), recent applications to postseismic deformation studies achieved identifying sub-cm deformation. Motivated by them, we for the first time applied the kinematic GPS coordinates to model the short-term SSE.

We chose one Cascadia SSE in March – April 2017, which has been already reported from daily GNSS data, and performed the kinematic GPS analysis at a 30-second interval for observations during the event occurrence. Although the obtained raw coordinate series were quite noisy, we were able to discern the transient motion of a few mm during the event after carefully removing non-tectonic position fluctuation such as multipath effects, common mode errors and outliers.

Then, we inverted the cleaned data at a 30-minute interval using a Kalman-filter based method to infer spatiotemporal evolution of slip. The obtained spatiotemporal slip distribution exhibits a multi-stage evolution consisting of an isotropic growth of SSE and subsequent along-strike migration and termination. The transition of the slip growth mode occurs when the slip area fills the rheologically permitted down-dip width for the SSE occurrence. As conceptualized by Gomberg et al. (2016, GRL), this is analogous to the rupture growth of regular great earthquakes, so it implies the presence of common mechanical factors behind the two distinct slip phenomena. The inferred moment rate has two peaks, which are consistent with the daily tremor counts in this region.

We carried out another slip inversion using the daily static GPS data recorded during the same period and the same inversion method to investigate the performance and limitation of our kinematic GPS data. A moment rate inferred from the daily data has also two peaks, so our 30-minute inversion result has the comparable time resolution to that derived from the widely-used daily data. This is an astonishing result given the long-believed low signal-to-noise ratio of the kinematic GPS. Our results strongly highlight the importance of better understanding of the non-tectonic noise in the kinematic GPS analysis, which will further improve the temporal resolution of SSE.

How to cite: Itoh, Y., Aoki, Y., and Fukuda, J.: Imaging evolution of Cascadia slow-slip event using high-rate GPS, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-879, 2022.

EGU22-943 | Presentations | TS4.5

Relative contribution of afterslip, non-linear viscous, and poroelastic processes to the early postseismic deformation field of the 2010 Maule earthquake 

Carlos Peña, Sabrina Metzger, Oliver Heidbach, Jonathan Bedford, Bodo Bookhagen, Marcos Moreno, Onno Oncken, and Fabrice Cotton

Large earthquakes impose differential stresses in the crust and upper mantle that are transiently relaxed during the postseismic phase mostly due to afterslip on the fault interface, viscoelastic relaxation in the lower crust and upper mantle, and poroelastic rebound in the upper crust. During the last years, the wealth of geophysical and geodetic observations, as well as great effort in forward and inverse modelling have allowed a better comprehension of the role of these mechanisms during the postseismic period. However, it is still an open question to what extent postseismic processes contribute to the surface deformation signal, especially during the early postseismic period. In this study, we use GNSS and InSAR observations collected in the first 48 days following the 2010 Maule earthquake in Chile along with a model approach that integrates afterslip, poroelasticity, and temperature-controlled power-law (non-linear viscosity) rheology. The afterslip distribution is obtained from a geodetic data inversion after removing the poro-viscoelastic component by forward modelling to the geodetic data. We find that our model approach explains the geodetic cumulative signal 14% better than a pure elastic model inverting for afterslip. This improvement is mainly produced by the better fit to the geodetic signal at the volcanic and back-arc regions due to the inclusion of non-linear viscoelastic processes, which can explain > 60% of the observed surface displacements in these regions. We also show that poroelastic processes play a significant role locally, specifically near the region where the coseismic slip was largest. Here, poroelastic processes explain most of the cumulative observed GNSS uplift signal and produce surface landward patterns that affect the horizontal GNSS component by up to 15% in the opposite direction. If poroelastic processes are ignored, our results reveal that the resulting afterslip amplitude is both amplified and suppressed by up to 40% in regions of ~50 x 50 km2. Our findings have implications for the calculation of the postseismic slip budget, and therefore the seismic hazard assessment of future earthquakes.

How to cite: Peña, C., Metzger, S., Heidbach, O., Bedford, J., Bookhagen, B., Moreno, M., Oncken, O., and Cotton, F.: Relative contribution of afterslip, non-linear viscous, and poroelastic processes to the early postseismic deformation field of the 2010 Maule earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-943, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-943, 2022.

Tectonic pseudotachylytes are produced by rapid sliding and melting, and then solidified fast in faults during earthquakes, which are considered as fossil earthquake. Pseudotachylytes record the physical-chemical processes related to earthquake in fault zone, which are essential materials for understanding the history of fault activity.  Here we focus on the pseudotachylytes and cataclastic rocks in the East Yibug Caka fault, SN-trending normal fault in the Qiangtang terrane, in the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau. Combined optical microscope, scanning electron microscope, powder X-ray diffraction (XRD) with in situ X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyses, their microstructures, mineral composition and elemental distribution were analyzed in detail. Field investigation shows that the dark gray to brown in color pseudotachylytes, associated with cataclastic rocks, are occurred as fault veins and injection veins with thickness ranging from a few mm to 1 cm. Microstructural observations show that multiple lines of evidence, such as embayed quartz fragments, honeycomb-like vesciles and locally developed microcrystallines and cluster aggregates, indicate that the pseudotachylytes were the products of frictional melting during the seismic slip. In addition, pseudotachylytes present as clasts in cataclastic rocks and fault breccias, and younger cataclastic rocks contain breccia of earlier cataclastic rocks, these characteristcs indicate that large seismic events occurred repeatedly in this fault zone. Considering the initial active time of the normal faults in this area is 13.5 Ma, the formation depth of the pseudotachylytes and associated cataclastic rocks is 10 km, the exhumation rate of the these fault rocks from deep depth is at least ~0.74 mm/yr. Pseudotachylytes along normal faults are seldom reported, this is the first time that we find melt-origined pseudotachylytes in the SN-trending normal faults in the Qiangtang terrane, and where present they have important implications for learning regional seismic activity and fault evolution process.

How to cite: Wang, H., Li, H., Sun, Z., and He, X.: Discovery of the pseudotachylytes in the Qiangtang Rift, Tibet, and their petrological characteristics and tectonic significance, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1052, 2022.

EGU22-2393 | Presentations | TS4.5

Weak, Seismogenic Faults in the Lower Crust 

Sam Wimpenny

Earthquake-generating faults are typically confined to the upper 10-15 km of the crust, with the middle and lower crust deforming aseismically. Along the margins of Earth’s highest mountain ranges, however, seismicity can extend throughout the whole crust, from the surface to depths of 30-50 km in rocks at temperatures of 400-600 degrees. For earthquakes to take place at such high temperatures, the lower crust is thought to have an extremely dry (anhydrous) mineralogy, such that elastic strain is not relaxed by creep.

In this study, I will discuss the mechanical properties of earthquake-generating faults in the lower crust around the Andes mountains. I will use force-balance calculations to demonstrate that faults within the lower crust can be frictionally very weak, with an average effective static coefficient of friction <0.2. The mechanisms invoked to generate similar frictionally-weak, earthquake-generating faults in the upper crust appeal to the presence of highly-pressurised water, or water-driven alteration of the fault core to form phyllosilicate minerals. However, the dry mineralogy thought to necessitate elastic strain accumulation in the lower crust should preclude abundant free water within these faults by acting as a `sponge’, soaking up free water in hydration reactions. The geological controls on the frictional properties of earthquake-generating, lower-crustal faults remain a conundrum.

How to cite: Wimpenny, S.: Weak, Seismogenic Faults in the Lower Crust, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2393, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2393, 2022.

EGU22-2415 | Presentations | TS4.5

Field, microstructural and phase characterization of mirror-like fault surfaces in bituminous dolostones (central Apennines, Italy) 

Miriana Chinello, Elena Bersan, Michele Fondriest, Telemaco Tesei, Sveva Corrado, and Giulio Di Toro

Mirror-like surfaces (MSs) are easily recognizable in the field since they reflect natural visible light, thanks to their low surface roughness (nm-scale). These ultra-polished surfaces are often found in seismogenic fault zones cutting limestones and dolostones (e.g., Siman-Tov et al., 2013; Fondriest et al., 2013; Ohl et al., 2020). Both natural and experimentally-produced fault-related MSs were described in spatial association with ultrafine matrix (grain size <10µm), nanograins (<100nm in size), amorphous carbon, decomposition products of calcite/dolomite (i.e., portlandite, periclase) and larger in size but “truncated” clasts (Verberne et al., 2019). However, the mechanism of formation of MSs is still a matter of debate. Indeed, experimental evidence shows that MSs can develop both under seismic (slip rate ≈1 m/s; Fondriest et al., 2013; Siman-Tov et al., 2013; Pozzi et al., 2018; Ohl et al., 2020), and aseismic (slip rate ≈0.1-10 µm/s; Verberne et al., 2013; Tesei et al., 2017) deformation conditions, involving various physical-chemical processes operating over a broad range of P-T conditions, strain, and strain rates.

To better constrain the formation mechanism of MSs and their role in the seismic cycle, field, and high-resolution microstructural investigations, combined with thermal maturity analyses, were conducted on MSs cutting Triassic bituminous dolostones from the Italian Central Apennines. This region is one of the most seismically active areas in the Mediterranean (e.g., L’Aquila 2009, Mw 6.3 earthquake), with mainshocks and aftershocks propagating along extensional faults, cutting km-thick sequences of carbonates. The studied faults are hosted in the footwall of the younger-on-older Monte Camicia thrust, related to the Pliocene to Holocene in age Apenninic compressional to extensional tectonics and exhumed from < 4 km depth. The MSs samples were collected from faults with evidence of increasing cumulated slip (from few mm to few meters) and different attitudes (variable resolved stresses) to evaluate i) whether the thermal maturity of organic matter on fault surfaces preserved a trace of frictional heating and ii) to estimate the role of variable mechanical work in their formation.

The microstructures of the MSs and the associated slip zones display a polyphasic deformation history; smeared bitumen along the slip surfaces is spatially associated with (i) discrete ultracataclastic slip zones containing fragments of older bitumen-rich slip zones and calcite-rich vein-precipitated matrix and, (ii) lower strain cataclastic layers with evidence of pressure-solution in the dolostone clasts and viscous shear in the bitumen. Such different deformation styles of bitumen-rich materials might be an evidence of high strain rate coseismic embrittlement and long-term aseismic creep during the seismic cycle.

Micro-Raman analyses on the MSs and their wall rocks have been aimed at quantifying the thermal maturity of the organic matter on slip surfaces that can reveal thermal pulses associated to frictional heating during seismic slip. This multidisciplinary study, though finalized to a deep understanding of their formation mechanism, may lead to recognize microstructural or mineralogical/geochemical features specifically associated to earthquake ruptures in natural faults with a potential impact on seismic hazard studies.

How to cite: Chinello, M., Bersan, E., Fondriest, M., Tesei, T., Corrado, S., and Di Toro, G.: Field, microstructural and phase characterization of mirror-like fault surfaces in bituminous dolostones (central Apennines, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2415, 2022.

EGU22-2559 | Presentations | TS4.5

Searching for partial ruptures of repeating earthquakes in Parkfield, California 

Alice Turner and Jessica Hawthorne

Repeating earthquakes are thought to represent the repeated rupture of loaded patches surrounded by regions that are slipping aseismically; they provide a natural laboratory to study interactions between seismic and aseismic processes. These events occur less often than one would expect if these earthquakes accommodate all of the long-term slip. Recent crack models using rate-and-state friction (Cattania and Segall, 2019; Chen and Lapusta, 2009 ) suggest a possible explanation: for small events, a larger amount of the slip budget on the patch being taken up by aseismic slip. For larger events where most of the slip budget is seismic, the patch experiences partial ruptures, also leading to the deviation from expected scaling. We aim to test the predictions of this model of repeating ruptures by searching for the proposed partial ruptures. We choose to search using the Northern California earthquakes catalogue, which contains many well-located repeating earthquake sequences. Preliminary results suggest that partial ruptures in the Parkfield region are not common. If preliminary results pass additional tests, it may suggest that partial ruptures do not make up a significant proportion of the slip budget of larger repeating earthquakes in this region. 

How to cite: Turner, A. and Hawthorne, J.: Searching for partial ruptures of repeating earthquakes in Parkfield, California, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2559, 2022.

EGU22-2791 | Presentations | TS4.5

The role of fluids in earthquake cycles: insights from seismo-hydro-mechanical models 

Betti Hegyi, Luca Dal Zilio, Whitney Behr, and Taras Gerya

Understanding the role of fluids in earthquake mechanisms and designing a computational framework which couples solid rock deformation and fluid flow is a major challenge in geosciences. We present results from a newly developed Hydro-Mechanical Earthquake Cycle (H-MEC) numerical code, which can resolve inertia- and fluid-driven seismic events, as well as long-term deformation in and off-fault. The two-dimensional (2-D) code uses a finite difference method with rate dependent strength, while an adaptive time-stepping allows the correct resolution of both long- and short-time scales, ranging from years during slow tectonic loading to milliseconds during the propagation of dynamic ruptures. We investigate the evolution of a simple strike-slip fault with fluid flow in a poro-visco-elasto-plastic compressible media. We analyze which parameters could have a first-order control on the seismic and aseismic slip behavior. In particular, we explore  the effects of fault permeability, shear modulus and the rate-strengthening yield strength. Our results suggest that the mentioned parameters influence the recurrence time of seismic cycles. Furthermore, permeability controls the long-term slip behavior and has a significant impact on the self-pressurization of pore-fluid pressure inside the fault zone, both during earthquake nucleation and propagation. Notably, for a range of different fault permeability a temporal transition from seismic events to aseismic slip can be observed, due to a gradual increase of pore-pressure over multiple earthquake cycles. This new numerical framework can help us better understand earthquake mechanisms and earthquake cycles, the role of fluids along fault-structures, and their effect on long term geodynamic processes. 

How to cite: Hegyi, B., Dal Zilio, L., Behr, W., and Gerya, T.: The role of fluids in earthquake cycles: insights from seismo-hydro-mechanical models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2791, 2022.

EGU22-2795 | Presentations | TS4.5

The role of poroelasticity and dilatancy in governing the transition from aseismic to seismic slip during fluid injection 

Elías Rafn Heimisson, Shengduo Liu, Nadia Lapusta, and John Rudnicki

Most faults at seismogenic depths can be described as fractures or discontinuities in a fluid-saturated porous medium and thus, the theory of poroelasticity offers a practical mechanical description of the natural fault environment. However, poroelasticity is rarely considered in simulations of fault slip. Poroelasticity incorporates the two-way coupling of solid and fluid phases where pore-pressure change,  e.g., due to slip, strains the rock matrix and volumetric strain causes changes in pore pressure. During earthquake nucleation, inelastic dilatancy may also induce pore pressure changes. A complex interplay of pore pressure in the bulk and shear zone emerges when we consider the multiple processes coupled to slip on a fault governed by rate-and-state friction. Here, we present an efficient spectral boundary integral code that allows for 2D quasi-dynamic rate-and-state simulations of slow and fast slip with fully coupled and simultaneous state-dependent dilatancy, fluid injection, and two-way coupled diffusive poroelastic bulk response. The method allows for anisotropic shear-zone permeability, while the bulk is considered to be isotropic and homogenous. We can thus simulate three diffusion time scales at once: along the shear zone, across the shear zone, and due to wavelength-dependent bulk diffusion. We apply the code to understand nucleation and repeated fault ruptures with a realistic pore-pressure injection history from a field experiment. We compare different cases with and without dilatancy, larger or smaller differences in drained and undrained poroelastic properties, and varying bulk diffusivity. By systematically increasing the dilatancy coefficient, we observe a transition from highly unstable seismic slip to a migrating slow slip front to quasi-static slip localized to highly pressurized areas. More surprisingly, we find that differences in drained and undrained poroelastic properties and bulk diffusivity strongly influence fault slip stability. A larger difference between drained and undrained Poisson’s ratio or higher bulk diffusivity results in more stable slip during injection, fewer ruptures, and delayed nucleation. These effects appear to be of comparable importance to dilatancy. We conclude that the poroelastic properties of the bulk, which are typically ignored, play a critical role in the stability and determining if slip is seismic or aseismic.

How to cite: Heimisson, E. R., Liu, S., Lapusta, N., and Rudnicki, J.: The role of poroelasticity and dilatancy in governing the transition from aseismic to seismic slip during fluid injection, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2795, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2795, 2022.

Dilatancy associated with fault slip produces a transient pore pressure drop which increases frictional strength. This effect has been argued to be at least partially at the origin of slow slip events in subduction zones. Recent experimental results have demonstrated that dilatancy hardening has the potential to stabilise rupture in rocks, but laboratory results need to be upscaled to account for large scale variations in slip along faults. Here, we analyze the dilatant hardening in a steadily propagating rupture model that includes frictional weakening, slip-dependent fault dilation and fluid flow. A fracture mechanics approach is used to show that dilatancy hardening tends to increase the stress intensity factor required to propagate the rupture tip. With increasing rupture speed, an undrained (strengthened) region develops near the tip and extends beyond the frictionally weakened zone. Away from the undrained region, pore fluid diffusion gradually recharges the fault and strength returns to the drained, weakened value. For sufficiently large rupture dimensions, the dilation-induced strength increase near the tip is equivalent to an increase in toughness that is proportional to the square root of the rupture speed. In general, dilation has the effect of increasing the stress required for rupture growth by decreasing the stress drop along the crack. The competing effect of thermal pressurization has the potential to compensate for the dilatant strengthening effect, at the expense of an increased heating rate, which might lead to premature frictional melting. Using reasonable laboratory-derived parameters, we show that the dilatancy-toughening effect leads to rupture dynamics that is quantitatively consistent with the dynamics of observed slow slip events in subduction zones.

How to cite: Brantut, N.: Dilatancy Toughening of Shear Cracks and Implications for Slow Rupture Propagation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2865, 2022.

EGU22-2996 | Presentations | TS4.5

Forecasting earthquake rupture characteristics with deep learning: a proof of concept using analog laboratory foamquakes 

Giacomo Mastella, Fabio Corbi, Jonathan Bedford, Francesca Funiciello, and Matthias Rosenau

In recent years, machine learning has been used to predict earthquake-like failures in various laboratory experiments. The predictions of these approaches have been framed with both regression and classification. Labquakes prediction in direct shear experiments has been achieved by predicting the time to failure of the sample (regression). Similarly, for laboratory analog subduction models, the time to failure has been successfully predicted. In the classification approach, demonstrated on analog models, a time window of “imminence” is predefined and the model determines if failure occurs within this time window or not. These previous approaches suffer from the problem of thresholding: in time-to-failure regression, there is the need to define a velocity or displacement that signals an event has occurred, in imminence classification the choice is the time window that we consider an event to be imminent. Here we remove this thresholding problem by taking a spatiotemporal regression framing that forecasts future surface velocity fields from past ones. In such a framing, the whole seismic cycle is forecast (i.e., interseismic, coseismic, and postseismic). We test this approach on Foamquake.

Foamquake is a novel 3D elastoplastic seismotectonic analog model mimicking the key features of the subduction megathrust seismic cycle in a scaled manner. Foamquake features a wedge-shaped elastic upper plate made of foam rubber. The analog megathrust includes a velocity weakening, rectangular patch embedded in a velocity neutral matrix. Plate convergence is imposed kinematically with a motor-driven belt (analog of the subducting plate) underthrusting the wedge. Foamquake experiences quasi-periodic cycles of stress accumulation and sudden drops through spontaneous nucleation of frictional instabilities. These labquakes are characterized by coseismic displacement of a few tens of meters when scaled to nature and source parameters (seismic moment-duration and moment-rupture area) scaling as real subduction interplate earthquakes. The 3D nature of Foamquake allows running models with two asperities along strike of the subduction zone divided by a barrier. This configuration generates sequences of full and partial ruptures, superimposed cycles, and nested rupture cascades: complex patterns similar to those inferred at natural megathrusts, representing the perfect testbed for developing new prediction strategies.

In particular, we step toward forecasting seismic cycle full surface velocity fields using deep-learning-based approaches from the Computer Vision field. This framing allows simultaneously to forecast the onset of a labquake and illuminate its space-time evolution at different prediction horizons. A variety of deep-learning algorithms have been tested and compared with Random Forest models (which we consider as a baseline machine learning model). We show that Convolutional Recurrent Neural Networks, with spatiotemporal sequences of surface velocities as input, perform the best in forecasting. Preliminary results suggest that the onset and the spatio-temporal propagation of individual lab-quakes can be predicted with relatively high accuracy at prediction horizons that are in the same order of labquake durations. Surface velocities at further horizons than labquake durations appear unpredictable. This study introduces an innovative framing of the earthquake forecasting problem which can open new perspectives for application to natural observations.

 

How to cite: Mastella, G., Corbi, F., Bedford, J., Funiciello, F., and Rosenau, M.: Forecasting earthquake rupture characteristics with deep learning: a proof of concept using analog laboratory foamquakes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2996, 2022.

EGU22-3189 | Presentations | TS4.5 | Highlight

Seismic and aseismic fault slip during the inter-seismic period: observations from the Marmara region of the North Anatolian Fault 

Patricia Martínez-Garzón, Dirk Becker, Virginie Durand, Grzegorz Kwiatek, Marco Bohnhoff, and Murat Nurlu

During the inter-seismic period, faults accumulate tectonic strain which is then released through slip transients of different duration from seismic to aseismic. Imaging creeping fault patches and constraining their depth extent could allow identifying fault segments with larger strain accumulation. The Marmara segment of the North Anatolian Fault (NAFZ) currently represents a seismic gap with a high probability for an M>7 earthquake in direct proximity to Istanbul. In the eastern Sea of Marmara region of the NAFZ, the GONAF borehole observatory is fully operating since 2015, providing the means to monitor earthquake nucleation and crustal deformation over the entire frequency band. In this study, we investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of seismic and aseismic deformation in the Marmara region and the implications for the nucleation of a large earthquake compiling information derived from extended identification of earthquake repeaters and analysis of continuous strainmeter and geodetic recordings. At the eastern portion of the Marmara segment, a fully locked fault segment was identified from absence of microseismicity and from GPS data (Bohnhoff et al., 2013; Ergintav et al., 2014). Towards the western part, shallow fault creep was reported based on sea-floor geodesy (Yamamoto et al., 2018) and the occurrence of repeating earthquakes (Schmittbuhl et al., 2016; Bohnhoff et al., 2017) in specific areas. We generated a new 15-year homogenous seismicity catalog for the Marmara region (2006-2021) unifying the data from the main Turkish seismic agencies AFAD and KOERI and including the GONAF borehole network. A total of 13.876 events were of sufficient quality to obtain non-linear hypocenter locations. We utilized this catalog to search for earthquake repeaters along the entire Main Marmara fault segment as well as the southern Marmara and Armutlu fault segments. Centering at the Western High segment of the Main Marmara fault, a spatial transition eastward and westward from partially creeping to fully locked is observed based on the amount and magnitude of earthquake repeaters and the estimated creeping rate. No other sequence of repeaters is found in any other part of the Marmara region. Analysis of strainmeter continuous recordings revealed two slow slip events connected with the occurrence of two M4+ earthquakes in the region in 2016 and 2018 and lasting for at least 30 days. Coulomb forward modelling combined with seismicity analysis suggests that the fault source of these slip transients could be the shallower portion of a local normal fault structure in the Armutlu Peninsula favorably oriented with respect to the local stress field orientation. All together, these results suggest that aseismic slip is occurring in some segments and different depth extent within the Marmara section of the NAFZ and that aseismic slip has a role in earthquake triggering and nucleation in the region. Still, further studies combining seismological and geodetic data are needed to determine the exact amount of slip-partitioning, particularly with depth.

How to cite: Martínez-Garzón, P., Becker, D., Durand, V., Kwiatek, G., Bohnhoff, M., and Nurlu, M.: Seismic and aseismic fault slip during the inter-seismic period: observations from the Marmara region of the North Anatolian Fault, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3189, 2022.

EGU22-3209 | Presentations | TS4.5

Linking surface strain signals with frictional heterogeneity of the interface in a laboratory-scale subduction megathrust 

Ehsan Kosari, Matthias Rosenau, Jonathan Bedford, Zhiguo Deng, Sabrina Metzger, Bernd Schurr, and Onno Oncken

Geodetic, seismological, gravimetric, and geomorphic proxies have widely been used to understand the behavior of the shallow portion of subduction megathrusts and answer questions related to seismic asperities: Where are they located, and how large are they? How close are they to failure, and how strong are they coupled? Our current knowledge of the kinematics and dynamics of megathrust earthquakes is limited due to their offshore location, and that our observations only cover a fraction of one megathrust earthquake cycle. 

The frictional-elastoplastic interaction between the interface and its overriding wedge causes variable surface strain signals such that the wedge strain pattern may reveal the mechanical state of the interface. We here contribute to this discussion using observations and interpretations of controlled analog megathrust experiments highlighting the variability of deformation signals in subduction zones. To examine the interaction, we investigate seismotectonic scale models representing a seismically heterogenous interface and capture the model’s surface displacements by employing a “laboratory-geodetic” method with high spatio-temporal resolution. Our experiments generate physically self‐consistent, analog megathrust earthquake ruptures over multiple seismic cycles at laboratory scale to study the interplay between short-term elastic and long-term permanent deformation. 

Our results demonstrate that frictional-elastoplastic interaction partitions the upper plate into a trench-parallel and -perpendicular strain domain, experiencing opposite strain (contraction vs. extension) during the co- and interseismic phase of the seismic cycle. Moreover, the pattern differs in the off- and onshore segments of the upper plate. This implies that the seismic potential of the shallow (offshore) portion of the megathrust may be underrepresented if only onshore observations are included in the estimate. However, our models suggest that, in the case of strong frictional contrast (velocity weakening vs. strengthening) on the interface, the short-term, onshore strain pattern (dominated by elastic deformation) may suffice to map the frictional heterogeneity of the shallow interface along strike. Finally, the frictional heterogeneity of the shallow interface is well reflected by the permanent surface strain observed offshore and partially in the strain observed at the coastal region. The observed along-trench segmentation predicted by our models is reasonably compatible with short-term, elastic geodetic observations and permanent geomorphic features in nature.

How to cite: Kosari, E., Rosenau, M., Bedford, J., Deng, Z., Metzger, S., Schurr, B., and Oncken, O.: Linking surface strain signals with frictional heterogeneity of the interface in a laboratory-scale subduction megathrust, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3209, 2022.

It has often been suggested that the frictional instability on small fault patches can lead to slow but accelerated creep and growth, which may explain the nucleation of earthquake rupture. Because of the small size of the asperity at depth, the nucleation process is difficult to verify by observations and its possible role for earthquake generation is still debated.

While most earthquake nucleation models are of complex geometry and assume that the asperity itself is static while its stress is increasing, we suggest a concept where the cohesion zone of a fault patch grows steadily and develops a self-induced high stress behind the crack tip. We show that a slip-weakening and velocity strengthening constitutive relation can generate the high stress cohesion zone. The aseismic growth of the asperity is accelerated, and the point to nucleate into a catastrophic rupture depends on the ambient stress on the fault and the stress drop in the centre of creeping segment. Interestingly the model predicts that earthquakes on faults with subcritical and small ambient stress will start with more energetic ruptures, as their Griffith energy is larger. This is unexpected and may question the common assumption that largest earthquake are triggered if the fault is critically stressed and the last earthquake occurred a long time before the average recurrence period.

Our fracture mechanical, theoretical asperity model is unconventional and questions established ideas on earthquake generation. We discuss the possible consequences and the postulated, testable predictions of the model to motivate laboratory and field experiments.

How to cite: Dahm, T. and Hainzl, S.: Earthquake nucleation – viewpoint of dynamically growing asperities controlled by the fracture cohesion-zone and frictional shear, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3541, 2022.

EGU22-3617 | Presentations | TS4.5

Evidence of frictional melting observed in the fault rock drill cuttings from Pohang enhanced geothermal system (EGS) site 

Sejin Jung, Ji-Hoon Kang, Youngwoo Kil, and Haemyeong Jung

The 2017 Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake in South Korea has been reported as one of the largest triggered earthquakes at an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) site. A fault that was ruptured in Pohang was not identified by geological investigations or geophysical surveys before the Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake. “Mud balls” showing a fault gouge structure were reported in the Pohang EGS site only at the depth range of 3,790 – 3,816 m. In this study, we present new observation on the fault rocks retrieved from the Pohang EGS site as drill cuttings. The drill cuttings from 3,256 – 3,911 m interval contained mud balls similar to those observed at the depth of 3,790 – 3,816 m. Mud balls contained fine grains and showed foliated clay matrix with well-rounded clasts of quartz or feldspar, which are a typical fault gouge structure. In addition, mud balls retrieved from the depth of 3,256 and 3,260 m contained black fragments. SEM and TEM observation revealed that these black fragments consist of glassy matrix with sub-micrometer size clasts. Abundant vesicles were observed inside the black fragments, and some of the black fragments preserved foliation defined by compositional layering. TEM observation confirmed that the glassy matrix in the black fragments is amorphous material with a chemical composition similar to illite-smectite. These observations indicate that black fragments are resulted from the frictional melting during the coseismic slip.

How to cite: Jung, S., Kang, J.-H., Kil, Y., and Jung, H.: Evidence of frictional melting observed in the fault rock drill cuttings from Pohang enhanced geothermal system (EGS) site, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3617, 2022.

EGU22-4107 | Presentations | TS4.5

Characterizing the rupture extent of creep events along the Central San Andreas Fault. 

Daniel Gittins and Jessica Hawthorne

The San Andreas Fault has been observed to creep at the surface along the creeping section between San Juan Bautista and Cholame. Slip along this creeping section accumulates at a slow background rate that is punctuated by creep events: few-mm bursts of slip that occur every few weeks to months. Despite observations of these events dating back to the 1960s, we still do not know the rupture extent of these events or the forces that drive them, as previous estimations are confined to short observation periods or one location. So in this study, we systematically characterize creep events in terms of their along-strike rupture extent and determine the depth at which these events occur.

We detect and analyze creep event rupture extent using 18 USGS creepmeters and PBO strainmeters along the San Andreas fault. Using a cross-correlation approach, we systematically detect 2120 creep events in the creepmeter record spanning 1985 - 2020. Comparing the start times of these events, we identify 306 potential multi-creepmeter events and determine their potential along-strike rupture extent. Through both visual inspection and statistical analysis, we identify five creep event types, including single-creepmeter events, small (<2 km) events, medium-sized (3-6 km) events, large (>10 km) events and events that rupture multiple fault strands. We also repeated this analysis after removing events that may be driven by rainfall, and we find that only the correlation of the very largest creep events diminishes. This suggests that these kilometer-long events are not small rainfall-associated perturbations; they are likely to be driven by complex or heterogeneous frictional weakening at depth.

We are exploring more of the properties of creep events to understand better the driving physics, primarily depth, duration, slip and slip evolution. By determining these properties, we may be able to better discriminate between the driving models of creep events and provide a window into the dynamics of larger-scale slip on the San Andreas Fault.

How to cite: Gittins, D. and Hawthorne, J.: Characterizing the rupture extent of creep events along the Central San Andreas Fault., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4107, 2022.

EGU22-4533 | Presentations | TS4.5

Creep on seismogenic faults: Insights from analogue earthquake experiments 

Matthias Rosenau, Fabio Corbi, Nadaya Cubas, Francesca Funiciello, Ehsan Kosari, Bertrand Maillot, Giacomo Mastella, Onno Oncken, Michael Rudolf, Pauline Souloumiac, and Sarah Visage

Tectonic faults display a range of slip behaviours including continuous and episodic slip covering rates of more than 10 orders of magnitude. To gain insight into the slip behaviour of brittle faults, we performed laboratory stick-slip experiments at low pressure using dry “sticky” rice as rock analogue material. Rice has been shown to be a valuable material obeying the rate and state friction laws qualitatively and quantitatively and mimicking the full spectrum of seismogenic fault behaviour (“ricemic cycles”) depending on boundary conditions. The deformation mechanism is granular flow and as such transient hardening and weakening phenomena such as strain localization or stick-slip are accompanied by dilation and compaction, respectively. Such a rheology might be similar in rocks at various scales (grain scale to regional tectonic scale).

We here report on ring shear test experiments on a range of rice varieties, including full-grain and crushed sorts. We imposed boundary conditions (i.e., normal load, shear velocity) scaled down from nature under which our fault analogue shows a variety of slip behaviours ranging from slow and quasi-continuous creep to episodic slow slip to dynamic rupture. The experiments demonstrate that significant interseismic creep (up to far-field loading rate) and earthquakes may not be mutually exclusive phenomena for a given location along a fault. Moreover, creep signals vary systematically with the fault’s seismic potential. Accordingly, the transience of interseismic creep scales with fault strength and seismic coupling as well as with the maturity of the seismic cycle. Loading rate independence of creep signals suggests that the long-term stationary mechanical properties of faults (e.g. seismic coupling) can be inferred from short-term observations (e.g. aftershock sequences). Moreover, we observe the number and size of small episodic slip events to systematically increase towards the end of the seismic cycle providing an observable proxy of the relative shear stress state on seismogenic faults. 

Importantly, very weak faults (with low effective normal loads) in a late stage of their seismic cycle might creep at rates very close to far-field loading for extended periods of the interseismic stage (~decades before failure). Given that we typically observe only a fraction of seismic cycles with high resolution (with geodetic methods) in nature, this might lead to the false belief of the fault being aseismic and not hosting large earthquakes. We thus demonstrate that seismic and aseismic behaviour might not necessarily be mutually exclusive.

How to cite: Rosenau, M., Corbi, F., Cubas, N., Funiciello, F., Kosari, E., Maillot, B., Mastella, G., Oncken, O., Rudolf, M., Souloumiac, P., and Visage, S.: Creep on seismogenic faults: Insights from analogue earthquake experiments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4533, 2022.

EGU22-5062 | Presentations | TS4.5

Frictional melting during seismic rupture? A new Raman Spectroscopy approach to detect short-lived heat pulses 

Benjamin Moris-Muttoni, Hugues Raimbourg, Romain Augier, Aurélien Canizarès, Patrick Simon, and Yan Chen

Whether seismic rupture propagates over large distances to generate earthquakes or on the contrary slows down quickly, is heavily dependent on the slip processes operating within the fault core. One possible scenario is that during seismic slip, the frictional work induces a local and transient release of heat up to reach the melting of the rock. This melt-lubrication of the fault plane results in resistance drop and promotes further propagation of the fault. Nonetheless, assessing the occurrence of flash melting has turned problematic, especially in the metasediments that constitute a large fraction of seismically active collision or subduction zones.

In this work, we explore the effects of short-lived intense heating on the crystallinity of the carbonaceous particles present in the fault core. For this purpose, we carried out flash-heating experiments on pellets of natural sediments. Using a pair of lasers, the sample temperature was raised to 1400°C for durations ranging from 0.5 to 60 seconds, resulting in partial to total melting. The carbonaceous particles were then analyzed by Raman Spectroscopy. The spectroscopic signal of particles intensely heated for a short period of time present an atypical shape, with a large D3 band centered around 1500cm-1. The D3/Gsl. ratio in Flash-heating experiments show an evolution from 0.2 for the starting material up to 0.7 after a couple of seconds of Flash-heating. Following this experimental work, we analyzed with Raman spectroscopy several independent examples of short-lived intense heating of carbon-bearing rocks: static heating, stick-slip, high-velocity-friction experiments, In all these cases, we observed the presence of a prominent D3 band and a D3/Gsl. ratio larger than reference material. Based on these observations, we established a new parameter, the D3/Gsl. ratio, as sensitive to short-lived intense heating.

Finally, we applied this new Raman parameter in association with micro-structural observations to discriminate the formation process of five Black Fault Rocks (BFR) from the Shimanto and the Kodiak Accretionary Complex. Microstructures are in several cases ambiguous as to the occurrence of melting in the BFR. However, the D3/Gsl. ratio shows a large increase in the Kure and the Mugi BFR while the values are close to 0.2 in the host-rock. In contrast, Nobeoka, Okitsu and Kodiak BFR show similar values in comparing the BFR veins and the host-rocks. Accordingly, the Mugi and Kure BFR are associated with a molten origin when the three others BFR are the result of mechanical wear solely, without evidence for large temperature increase.

In summary, the D3/Gsl. ratio is a parameter that can be easily retrieved in most fault rocks cutting across sediments and that efficiently tracks the occurrence of short-lived intense heating. The use of this parameter appears as a promising approach to decipher the dynamics of faulting and to discriminate faults with intense frictional work from faults where temperature increase was much more limited, either because of slow creep or inhibiting processes (e.g. fluid vaporization during slip).

How to cite: Moris-Muttoni, B., Raimbourg, H., Augier, R., Canizarès, A., Simon, P., and Chen, Y.: Frictional melting during seismic rupture? A new Raman Spectroscopy approach to detect short-lived heat pulses, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5062, 2022.

EGU22-5254 | Presentations | TS4.5

Interactions of asperities controlling on fault stability: An experimental approach 

Weiwei Shu, Olivier Lengliné, and Jean Schmittbuhl

The transition between seismic slip and aseismic creep of faults in the Earth crust suggests a strong time-dependent mechanism for the underlying physics and corresponding mechanical response of fault slip. Asperities establish the real contact on the slipping interface of a fault and serve as stress concentrators that control the initiation of earthquakes. Investigating the interactions between individual asperities and how the global stability of a fault is controlled by the collective effects of their local behaviors are essential for understanding the intrinsic relationships between earthquake swarms and faulting. Here we design a novel direct-shear experimental setup, which allows a thick PMMA (poly-methyl-methacrylate) plate to slide slowly on a customized surface, on which asperities are modeled by spherical PMMA beads and embedded in a softer polymer base, for analogizing tectonic faults. We perform various experiments by applying multiple normal loads and loading rates, with a high-resolution camera employed to capture the detailed activities of asperities. We demonstrate the global stability of a fault could be described by the synthesized behaviors of local asperities. We also prove, for the same asperity, it can experience different slip modes at different time periods. We generate a catalog of fault slip events defined by the slipping velocity of each asperity derived from the image correlation technology, and then we determine slip episodes based on time and space successively. Furthermore, we investigate the distributions of various parameters of the determined slip episodes, including the number of slipping asperities, as well as the duration, mean slip displacement, and moment of slip episodes. We explore the spatiotemporal variations of b-value within one analog seismic cycle and under different normal loads and loading rates. We link the findings at local scales with the bulk mechanical response of the whole fault. Our results bring new insights into the physics and mechanics of seismic and aseismic faulting.

How to cite: Shu, W., Lengliné, O., and Schmittbuhl, J.: Interactions of asperities controlling on fault stability: An experimental approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5254, 2022.

EGU22-6478 | Presentations | TS4.5

Critical roughness controls sliding instability of laboratory earthquakes 

Doron Morad, Amir Sagy, Yuval Tal, and Yossef H. Hatzor

The frictional strength of discontinuities in the upper earth crust controls the stability and dynamics of slip in diverse catastrophic phenomena such as earthquakes and landslides. Natural rock surfaces are rough at various scales with significant variability that affects their frictional behavior. Seismological and geophysical observations of large thrust faults suggest that fault geometry affects earthquake characteristics, yet the exact effects are currently being debated. In this study we show, using laboratory direct shear experiments, that a specific surface geometry enhances sliding instability and that the transition from stable to unstable sliding is non-linearly controlled by the magnitude of the initial roughness. In order to isolate the effect of roughness, we generate six levels of surface roughness in split prisms of Diabase rocks, with four orders of RMS magnitude difference between the smoothest and the roughest samples. The experiments are performed under an imposed constant normal stress of 5 MPa and load point (shear piston) velocity of 0.01 mm/s. The sliding target is typically set to 10 - 13 mm as monitored from two horizontal LVDT’s that are attached to the shear box very close to the tested interface. We show that the amplitude of the stick-slip events diminishes towards the two roughness extremes. The roughest sample (RMS = 1300 µm) exhibits a gradual increase of shear stress to a peak value of ~13 MPa, followed by brittle fracture expressed by a large stress drop of 3 MPa and then by transition to a relatively stable sliding. For the midrange roughness (RMS = 7 µm), stick-slip oscillations are obtained with different levels of stress drops and sliding dynamics characteristics. The smooth sample (RMS = 0.85 µm) slide in a relatively stable manner while the smoothest surface (RMS = 0.7) exhibits local peak friction of 0.18, followed by stable sliding with moderate slip hardening. We further demonstrate, both experimentally and numerically, that stick-slip oscillations commonly referred to as laboratory earthquakes, are constrained to a very limited range of surfaces roughness within which a specific level, defined here as the critical roughness, triggers the highest amplitude of oscillations. We therefore suggest that the roughness amplitude strongly affects the frictional stability and slip dynamics of natural faults.

How to cite: Morad, D., Sagy, A., Tal, Y., and H. Hatzor, Y.: Critical roughness controls sliding instability of laboratory earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6478, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6478, 2022.

EGU22-6560 | Presentations | TS4.5

Seismic potential of the Anninghe Fault zone, southeastern Tibetan Plateau: Constrains from friction experiments on natural granite gouge 

Huiru Lei, André R. Niemeijer, Yongsheng Zhou, and Christopher J. Spiers

The eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan tectonic block and Tibetan Plateau is marked by a highly active fault zone featuring four left-lateral strike-slip faults, the Xianshuihe, Anninghe, Zemuhe, and Xiaojiang faults. These collectively show the highest seismicity in southwestern China. Since 1977, a portion of the Anninghe faults (AHF) has experienced seismic quiescence for ML≥4.0 earthquakes. The spatial extent of this quiescent portion has gradually dwindled with time resulting in the formation of the current 130-km-long “Anninghe seismic gap”. To evaluate the seismic potential and model seismogenesis on this part of the AHF, data are needed on the frictional properties of relevant fault zone materials under mid-crustal hydrothermal conditions.

In this study, we report both saw-cut and rotary shear friction experiments performed on sieved granite gouge collected from the AHF and believed to represent the fault rock composition at seismogenic depth. Experiments were conducted on 1 mm thick gouge layers at 100-600℃, effective normal stress of 100-200MPa, pore water pressures of 30MPa and 100 MPa, and sliding velocities of 0.01-100μm/s . The saw-cut tests reached shear displacements up to 4 mm versus 30 mm in the ring shear experiments. Friction coefficient lays in the range 0.6-0.8 in most samples, except that it drops to 0.4 at higher temperatures and low velocity. In the saw-cut experiments performed at 30MPa pore water pressure, velocity-strengthening behaviour occurred below 200℃ (Regime 1), whereas velocity-weakening occurred at 200-600℃ (Regime 2). By contrast, dry saw-cut experiments showed velocity-strengthening at all temperatures investigated (25-600℃). In the rotary shear experiments performed at 100MPa pore water pressure, three temperature-dependent regimes of behaviour were identified, showing potentially unstable, velocity-weakening behaviour at 100-400℃ (Regime 2) and velocity-strengthening at lower and higher temperatures (Regimes 1 and 3). These regimes moved towards higher temperatures with an increase in sliding velocity. Combining all the data, the importance of Regime 2, i.e. the temperature range characterized by velocity-weakening, potentially seismogenic behaviour, decreased with increasing pore water pressure, shear displacement and effective normal stress. Combined with our microstructural observation and previous studies, we explain our results qualitatively in terms of a microphysical model in which changes in friction coefficient and (a-b) are caused by competition between dilatant granular flow and grain-scale creep processes.

Since the geothermal gradient around AHF is approximately 30 ℃/km, direct application of our results suggests velocity-weakening (Regime 2) on the AHF at depths of 2.5-12.5 km, and velocity-strengthening at shallower and deeper levels. By comparison, the depth range of the AHF seismic gap (locking region) is 0 to 15 km, additionally, the relocated small earthquake distribution in southwestern China shows that the depth of hypocenters are mostly less than 15km, which is consistent with our experimental results. However, our experiments show that the velocity-weakening regime for AHF gouge is controlled by many factors besides temperature, such as effective normal stress, pore fluid pressure, shear displacement and velocity. Further progress towards understanding the seismic gap, and allowing rupture nucleation modelling, for example, therefore requires a more quantitative microphysical modelling approach in future.

How to cite: Lei, H., Niemeijer, A. R., Zhou, Y., and Spiers, C. J.: Seismic potential of the Anninghe Fault zone, southeastern Tibetan Plateau: Constrains from friction experiments on natural granite gouge, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6560, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6560, 2022.

EGU22-6776 | Presentations | TS4.5

Changes in AE similarity track fault kinematics during laboratory earthquakes 

Samson Marty, Raphael A. Affinito, Clay Wood, Chris Marone, Parisa Shokouhi, and Jacques Rivière

It is now recognized that acoustic emissions (AEs) generated during stick-slip frictional sliding (i.e., lab earthquakes) can be considered as microearthquakes. Over the past decades, many laboratory AE studies have addressed issues related to the physics of earthquakes such as fault nucleation and growth in brittle rocks, frequency magnitude statistics of earthquakes, laboratory earthquake precursors and, more recently, laboratory earthquake prediction based on machine learning techniques. Here, we conduct double direct shear experiments on samples of Westerly granite under applied normal loads of 5-15 MPa and with shearing rates of 1-100 μm/s. We use template matching and other cross correlation techniques to study the evolution of AE similarity during the laboratory seismic cycle. The aim of this study is to connect changes in AE similarity to fault stress-loading and kinematics. AE similarity is derived from the correlation matrices of AE catalogs and is found to vary primarily with fault slip velocity. AE similarity is, on average, constant at slow speed (fault slip velocity <= 10 mm/s) and drops as fault slip velocity increases. Our observations show that AE similarity follows a power law of fault slip velocity. Based on previous experimental and theoretical works, we suggest that AE similarity reflects the evolution of fault contact area. One interpretation of our results is that a simple metric such as AE similarity carries relevant information about fault kinematics and fault structural properties that may be used for forecasting and prediction of failure.

How to cite: Marty, S., A. Affinito, R., Wood, C., Marone, C., Shokouhi, P., and Rivière, J.: Changes in AE similarity track fault kinematics during laboratory earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6776, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6776, 2022.

EGU22-8011 | Presentations | TS4.5

Temperature affects the frictional stability of experimental clay-bearing fault gouges 

Isabel Ashman and Daniel Faulkner

Field observations have shown that mature fault zones are rich in clay minerals (e.g. MTL in Japan, Punchbowl Fault in USA, and Alpine Fault Zone in New Zealand). Most mature fault zones are also seismogenic, which is at odds with the velocity strengthening behaviour observed for clay-bearing material in rock deformation experiments. The measurements of rate and state friction in clay-bearing material show that most clay-bearing material would favour aseismic creep when the experiments are conducted at room temperature. To address this disparity between experimental and field observations, a set of controlled friction experiments were devised to investigate the effect of varying temperature conditions on the frictional properties of clay-bearing fault gouges.
The velocity-step friction experiments were conducted in a triaxial deformation apparatus at an effective normal stress of 90MPa and ambient temperatures that increased from room temperature (23°C) to 180°C in increments of 40°C. In order to measure the rate and state frictional properties of the fault gouges, the imposed slip velocity was stepped between 0.3-3 μm/s. The simulated quartz-clay fault gouges had controlled clay (kaolinite) contents in increments of 25wt% from 0-100wt%. Preliminary results show that by increasing the ambient temperature during fault slip, the rate and state friction parameter [a–b] consistently decreases significantly in clay-bearing fault gouges, often from a velocity strengthening [a–b] value to a weakening [a–b] value. This is consistent with the previous, limited studies of clay-bearing material at elevated temperatures. In the clay-poor gouges, the velocity weakening [a–b] parameter is accompanied by dynamic stick-slip behaviour, whereas in clay-rich gouges the velocity weakening [a–b] parameter shows initially unstable slip that is dampened and arrests to aseismic slip. The elevated temperatures in fault zones at depths up to ~6km, as investigated in this study, can therefore lead to unstable fault slip in clay-rich material that is velocity strengthening at room temperature. It is proposed that elevated temperatures are an important component of seismogenic slip occurring in clay-rich material, as is observed in natural faults.

How to cite: Ashman, I. and Faulkner, D.: Temperature affects the frictional stability of experimental clay-bearing fault gouges, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8011, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8011, 2022.

EGU22-8340 | Presentations | TS4.5

Fault friction during simulated seismic slip pulses 

Christopher Harbord, Nicolas Brantut, Elena Spagnuolo, and Giulio Di Toro

Theoretical studies predict that during earthquake rupture faults slide at non-constant slip velocity, however it is not clear which source time functions are compatible with the high velocity rheology of earthquake faults. Here we present results from high velocity friction experiments with non-constant velocity history, employing a well-known seismic source solution compatible with earthquake source kinematics. The evolution of friction in experiments shows a strong dependence on the applied slip history, and parameters relevant to the energetics of faulting scale with the impulsiveness of the applied slip function. When comparing constitutive models of strength against our experimental results we demonstrate that the evolution of fault strength is directly controlled by the temperature evolution on and off the fault. Flash heating predicts weakening behaviour at short timescales, but at larger timescales strength is better predicted by a viscous creep rheology. We use a steady-state slip pulse to test the compatibility of our strength measurements at imposed slip rate history with the stress predicted from elastodynamic equilibrium. Whilst some compatibility is observed, the strength evolution indicates that slip acceleration and deceleration might be more rapid than that imposed in our experiments. 

How to cite: Harbord, C., Brantut, N., Spagnuolo, E., and Di Toro, G.: Fault friction during simulated seismic slip pulses, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8340, 2022.

EGU22-9868 | Presentations | TS4.5

Experimental strike-slip earthquakes (“ricequakes”) 

Sarah Visage, Pauline Souloumiac, Bertrand Maillot, Nadaya Cubas, and Yann Klinger

During large strike-slip earthquakes, the surface displacement can be measured from correlation of satellite images acquired before and after the event. These measurements allow quantifying the total surface displacement and knowing how it distributes between on and off-fault deformation, which is important for seismic hazard assessment. These measurements are highly variable, partly due to the sparsity of natural examples. This research focuses on analogue modelling to study parameters affecting the surface displacement in a controlled environment. However, current analogue models do not address the issue of surface deformation associated with strike-slip earthquakes. Instead, models using granular materials, such as sand or clay, rather focus on the surface deformation associated with continuous deformation without earthquakes, while models using rigid materials, such as foam or gelatin, focus on the localization and frequency of seismic events without looking at surface deformation.

To analyze the long-term deformation of seismogenic strike-slip faults from analogue experiments, we used a box composed of two juxtaposed PVC plates simulating a vertical and linear basement fault. A strike-slip fault emerges from this discontinuity. The box is filled with rice and rubber pellets in order to produce both aseismic displacements and earthquakes along the evolving strike-slip fault. Dry rice is a stick-slip granular material already used in subduction experiments. We used a twice broken rice with peak, dynamic, and reactivation friction values of respectively 0.78, 0.67 and 0.68 at a constant shear velocity. Those values decrease when the shear velocity is increased (the parameter “a-b” = -0.012 in the rate friction law of the rice). Since rice is too rigid to produce a measurable elastic strain release, we added a basal layer of fine rubber pellets between the basal PVC plates and the rice layer in order to store elastic strain. Applying a constant displacement velocity and taking photos every 25 micrometers of displacement, we follow the surface displacements through image correlation.

We observe that the average displacement along a profile parallel to the fault (taken at a distance of the basal fault corresponding to half the rice layer thickness) only matches the applied displacement when averaged over the whole experiments. Indeed, during most of the experiment, the observed incremental displacement is lower than the applied one, but from time to time it catches up during discreet events that produce large displacements of up to four times the applied incremental displacement. We interpret these events as seismic events. Hence, the evolution of cumulative displacement with time exhibits some phases of creep, more or less at the same rate as the input rate, during the inter-seismic period, and phases of sudden displacements corresponding to sudden release of elastic strain, i.e., earthquakes. However, we never observe a complete blocking phase (sticking phase). These first results show that it is possible to build an experimental strike-slip fault system in a granular medium with a low normal stress, i.e. a free surface, that produces extended periods of partial stress loading during creep phases, alternating with period of sudden stress release during displacement phases. 

How to cite: Visage, S., Souloumiac, P., Maillot, B., Cubas, N., and Klinger, Y.: Experimental strike-slip earthquakes (“ricequakes”), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9868, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9868, 2022.

EGU22-9997 | Presentations | TS4.5

Effects of asperities and roughness on frictional slip of laboratory faults 

simon Guerin-Marthe, Georg Dresen, Gzegorz Kwiatek, Lei Wang, Audrey Bonnelye, and Patricia Martinez-Garzon

Natural faults are heterogeneous features, with complex geometries and material properties. Understanding how the geometrical complexities of a fault affects the dynamics and preparatory phase of earthquakes is of crucial importance for seismic hazard assessment. In laboratory samples, frictional sliding along prefabricated faults may produce so called stick-slips comparable to dynamic ruptures observed during earthquakes. While the effect of roughness has been shown to influence significantly the frictional behavior of laboratory faults, there are only a few studies investigating more complex types of fault heterogeneities. In this study, we conduct friction experiments on granite with inclined sawcut faults, under a constant confining pressure of 35MPa. Samples are loaded using an axial displacement rate of 0.5 µm/s.  At  similar boundary conditions we compare the slip behavior of (1) a smooth fault, (2) a smooth fault with a single asperity, a 7 mm diameter vertical pin traversing the contact interface, and (3) a rough fault prepared by sandblasting the surface with silicon carbide. A key result of this study is that slip behavior depends on fault roughness and is influenced in a non-trivial way by asperities. The smooth fault displays unstable stick-slip as opposed to the rough fault showing predominantly creep. The smooth fault with the pin exhibits a slip behavior in-between, with very regular stress oscillations that seem to be attenuated by the presence of the pin (asperity). Only after failure of the pin, we observe the stress drop during instabilities to increase regularly with cumulative slip. We also show that in the case of a fault with a single asperity, the slip velocity is less than an order of magnitude lower compared to a similar smooth fault without this asperity.

How to cite: Guerin-Marthe, S., Dresen, G., Kwiatek, G., Wang, L., Bonnelye, A., and Martinez-Garzon, P.: Effects of asperities and roughness on frictional slip of laboratory faults, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9997, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9997, 2022.

EGU22-10438 | Presentations | TS4.5 | Highlight

Preseismic slip and foreshocks on rough faults embedded in a damage zone 

Camilla Cattania and Paul Segall

Faults exhibit geometrical heterogeneity at all scales, which induces spatial variations in normal stress and hence strength. Additionally, fault zones comprise multiple fractures which can host seismicity and further modify the stress state on the mainshock fault. Here we study how geometrical complexity affects the precursory phase of large earthquakes. We model seismic cycles on fractal faults with uniform velocity-weakening rate-state friction, loaded by a uniform far-field stressing rate. We also include the effect of surrounding damage, represented by a collection of smaller faults with a power-law decay of density with distance from the main fault.
We find that heterogeneity in normal stress σ induced by roughness controls slip behavior: regions with low σ begin to slip aseismically early in the cycle, loading high σ regions (asperities) which eventually fail seismically generating foreshocks. The precursory phase is characterized by a positive feedback between aseismic slip and foreshocks, with stress changes from each process accelerating the other. In simulations including subparallel secondary faults in the damage zone, this process does not take place on the main fault but instead on smaller, off-fault structures. In both cases, mainshocks nucleate on strong asperities at the edge of the preslip area, which is significantly larger and spatially distinct from mainshock nucleation. These features are consistent with a number of observations at different scales, including laboratory experiments, sub-glacial slip events, and foreshock sequences of megathrust earthquakes.

How to cite: Cattania, C. and Segall, P.: Preseismic slip and foreshocks on rough faults embedded in a damage zone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10438, 2022.

EGU22-10536 | Presentations | TS4.5

Nucleation and arrest of aseismic fault slip, during and after fluid pressurization 

Antoine Jacquey and Robert Viesca

Fluid pressurization of preexisting faults due to subsurface energy and storage applications can lead to the onset of aseismic slip and microseismicity, and possibly to major induced seismic events.

Fluid injection decreases the fault shear strength and slip occurs when the in situ shear stress on the fault exceeds its shear strength. The nature of slip (aseismic or seismic) depends on the rate at which it occurs and thus on the stability of the deformation. Understanding the mechanics controlling the onset and arrest of aseismic slip and the transition to seismic slip is therefore key to design mitigation strategies for the safe utilization of the subsurface.

In this contribution, we investigate using theoretical and numerical techniques how aseismic slip on a fault plane nucleates, evolves and stops in response to fluid pressurization and its relaxation. We analyze the impacts of the stress regime and the duration of the pressurization event on the aseismic slip propagation and the time to arrest of fault slip after stopping injection. We demonstrate conditions under which there is spatio-temporal self-similarity of (i) aseismic slip profiles during pressurization and (ii) aseismic slip rate profiles after pressurization. We show that post-injection progression and arrest of slip are proportional to the duration of injection. The results presented here provide insights into the mechanics controlling the arrest of aseismic slip after fluid pressurization as a first milestone towards induced seismicity mitigation strategies.

How to cite: Jacquey, A. and Viesca, R.: Nucleation and arrest of aseismic fault slip, during and after fluid pressurization, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10536, 2022.

EGU22-10746 | Presentations | TS4.5

The Effect of Undrained Fluid Boundary Conditions on Fault Stability 

Raphael Affinito, Clay Wood, Samson Marty, and Chris Marone

Pore fluids are ubiquitous throughout the lithosphere and are a major part of the stress distribution along faults. Elevated pore fluid pressure reduces the effective normal stress, allowing slip and potentially changing the mode of faulting.  Mature brittle faults are characterized by deca- to hecto-meter damage zones composed of gouge and complex shear localization fabrics that can host zones of low, anisotropic permeability. Such zones can include undrained pore fluid conditions that may result in a spectrum of slip behaviors including slow slip events. Despite the obvious importance of pore fluids for fault mechanics, their role in dictating fault stability is poorly constrained. Early results for rate-strengthening accretionary wedge materials suggest pore fluid has a stabilizing effect, as the friction parameter (a - b) increases in response to increased pore fluid pressure (Pf ). Here, we describe early stages of a laboratory investigation of the role of fluid pressure on friction rate and memory effects. We present experimental results from rate-weakening synthetic gouge samples at a range of pore fluid pressure conditions. Experiments use a servo-controlled biaxial load frame enclosing a pressure vessel to apply a true triaxial stress-state with pore fluid pressures. Samples are assembled in a double-direct shear configuration with two uniform 3-millimeter-thick gouge layers. Sample forcing blocks include shear wave piezoelectric transducers for ultrasonic monitoring of shear wave amplitude and velocity. We conducted stable sliding experiments at both drained and undrained conditions to explore role of pore fluids on the RSF parameters. Undrained stick-slip experiments were also done at a range of pore fluid pressures to investigate the role of fluid pressure on the nature of fault slip. We explore differences between the drained and undrained conditions with particular attention on changes from rate-weakening to rate-strengthing friction behavior due to localized overpressure. Additionally, we evaluate interplay between the modes of fault slip, due to poroelastic processes which will result in changes in the transmitted shear wave amplitude and velocity. In subduction environments pore fluid pressure can approach lithostatic pressures leading to localized overpressure. Therefore, it is important to understand the contributions of fluids and effective stress state on frictional stability and the mode of fault slip, whether it be aseismic creep, slow slip, or earthquake rupture.

How to cite: Affinito, R., Wood, C., Marty, S., and Marone, C.: The Effect of Undrained Fluid Boundary Conditions on Fault Stability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10746, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10746, 2022.

EGU22-12893 | Presentations | TS4.5

To what extent do slip rates contribute to the seismic activity of faults? 

Nasrin Tavakolizadeh, Hamzeh Mohammadigheymasi, Luís Matias, Graça Silveira, Rui Fernandes, and Nima Dolatabadi

Crustal deformation comprises a combination of seismic energy release occurring by earthquakes and aseismic unloading through creeping or frictional sliding. Efficient segregation of the seismic component attributed to faults is critical in evaluating Seismic Activity Rate (SAR) or Magnitude Frequency Distribution (MFD) of earthquakes in fault-based hazard assessment. The MFDs are routinely calculated by utilizing fault geometry and slip rate, evaluated from geodetic (or geological) data. The slip rates as an integrated representation of elastic and anelastic loadings overestimate the MFDs since earthquakes release only the elastic strain. To work around this problem, the seismic/geodetic moment-rate ratio defined as Seismic Coupling Coefficient (SCC) is incorporated in this study to account for the seismic portion of the total moment rate to calculate MFDs. The parameter has been studied for different tectonic regions worldwide, including the USA, Canada, Iran, Greece, and Italy. We modify the Moment Budget (MB) algorithm introduced by Pace et al. (2016) to weight the total moment rate corresponding to the maximum magnitude (Mmax) generated by the modeled faults by incorporating the SCC. An updated mean recurrence time (Tmean) for the Mmax and its corresponding uncertainty is computed when SCC is incorporated in the calculation. Then, the seismic moment, the SCC weighted Tmean, and its uncertainty are utilized to compute MFDs by balancing the modeled seismic moment rates (by Doubly Truncated Gutenberg-Richter (DTGR) or Characteristic Gaussian (CHG)) and the SCC weighted moment rates. This process is implemented by the Activity Rates (AR) tool of FiSH codes. Fault data of 89 fault segments in Zagros, Iran, are introduced into the algorithm to compute the SCC incorporated MFDs. The acquired fault-based hazard maps are in harmony with the history of seismicity and tectonics of the region, while the total moment rates exaggerate the calculated hazard. Future work involves implementing the processing algorithm on hazard assessment in the Gulf of Guinea. This research contributes to the FCT-funded SHAZAM (Ref. PTDC/CTA-GEO/31475/2017), IDL (Ref. FCT/UIDB/50019/2020), and SIGHT (Ref. PTDC/CTA-GEF/30264/2017) projects. It also uses computational resources provided by C4G (Collaboratory for Geosciences) (Ref. PINFRA/22151/2016).

How to cite: Tavakolizadeh, N., Mohammadigheymasi, H., Matias, L., Silveira, G., Fernandes, R., and Dolatabadi, N.: To what extent do slip rates contribute to the seismic activity of faults?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12893, 2022.

EGU22-13189 | Presentations | TS4.5

Are initial phases of seismic swarms driven by a cascade of events or precursory slow slip? 

Yu Jiang and Pablo González

Resolving fine temporal stressing rate changes can provide crucial information on the driving mechanisms leading to observed seismicity rate change and surface deformation signals and favours the distinguish of various earthquake nucleation hypotheses, e.g., the preslip model and the cascade model. The initial phase of seismic swarms might be an interesting candidate, because (1) the long-duration seismicity during seismic swarms provide us with better chances to reveal any stress change evolution, and (2) significant seismic slip is expected to occur caused by the most energetic event, which could bias our analysis of slow slip existence, while the initial phase contains much less seismic slip.

In this research, we revisit the 2011 Hawthorne seismic swarm (Nevada, USA) with well-recorded seismicity and abundant geodetic data, and test whether the derived observables can distinguish between two distinct slip nucleation hypotheses (cascade and preslip models). Firstly, to support the cascade model, we calculate the Coulomb stress change from the geodetic-estimated fault slip models, which allows us to analyse the spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity. Secondly, to test the preslip model, a modified rate-and-state model is proposed to connect the seismicity rate to the shear stressing rate, which is derived from a new slip history function - a logistic function. We apply this new method to the 2011 Hawthorne seismic swarm, and estimate the shear stressing rate history. The results show that: (1) A slow slip event is required to explain the observed deformation and seismicity in the initial phase of the swarm. Although the seismicity can be triggered by preceding nearby earthquakes, the cascade model alone cannot explain the observed surface deformation signals. (2) Slow slip is accelerating during the initial phase, and this pattern is consistent with the acceleration of slip during the nucleation of ruptures observed in laboratory experiments and numerical simulations. (3) The most energetic event (M4.6) could have been triggered by a slow slip event, nearby preceding seismicity, or both of them. 

The study of the initial phase during the 2011 Hawthorne seismic swarm allows us to explore the driving mechanism leading to the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity. We conclude that the slow slip is required to interpret the surface deformation and recorded seismicity, and the triggering of the observed earthquakes in a cascade model cannot be ruled out. This study contributes to providing a new method to model the shear stressing history, which helps to illuminate the physics of the nucleation of earthquakes and the role of slow fault slip in the future.

How to cite: Jiang, Y. and González, P.: Are initial phases of seismic swarms driven by a cascade of events or precursory slow slip?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13189, 2022.

Himalayas are seismically very active regions of the world due to ongoing continent-continent collision between India and Eurasia. The Himalayas are known to have hosted deadliest earthquakes in the past century and considering the exponential growth of population in megacities of Gangetic plains, a proper seismic hazard evaluation is very critical in this region. In this regard, the present and past slip rates along the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) are very important for understanding the convergence pattern and recurrence intervals of major earthquakes. Although geodetically derived short-term convergence rates are consistence with geologically derived long-term slip rates, this correlation is based on selected studies of uplifted Holocene terraces reporting geologically derived slip rates in Central and North-West Himalayas. There is no such reporting of Geological uplift rates from Nahan Salient in NW Himalayas. We have identified uplifted and truncated quaternary terraces along HFT in Nahan Salient Northwest Himalayas through cartosat-I stereo data. We mapped and dated the uplifted terraces in order to understand the long-term convergence rates over Holocene time period. The vertical incision rates are then calculated with the help of OSL ages and height of terraces. Assuming the vertical uplift is due to repeated past earthquakes along HFT dipping at 30°, vertical uplift rates are calculated to be 2.6 mm/yr, which equates to a fault slip rate of 5.16 mm/yr and a horizontal shortening rate of 3 mm/yr. Along with that last tectonic activity along HFT is also bracketed using age of uplifted terraces and unfaulted capping units from an exposed section of HFT fault plane along river section. The OSL ages suggest that the HFT was active between 3.8±0.4Ka and 0.706±0.15Ka. Assuming that no deformation has occurred along HFT after 0.706±0.15Ka a slip deficit of 3.6 m has been accumulated which is sufficient to generate a large earthquake in the Nahan Salient NW Himalayas.

How to cite: Singh, G., Thakur, M., and Malik, J. N.: Incision and Fault slip rates along Himalayan Frontal Thrust in Nahan Salient in Northwestern Himalayas: Implications for seismic hazard assessment., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-561, 2022.

EGU22-1557 | Presentations | TS4.7

Long-term coastal uplift due to non-recoverable forearc deformation during the interseismic phase of the subduction earthquake cycle 

Bar Oryan, Jean-Arthur Olive, Romain Jolivet, Lucile Bruhat, and Luca Malatesta

Simple elastic dislocation models have been widely used to describe the surface displacements associated with subduction zone earthquake cycles. To first order, these assume a portion of the plate interface is locked during the interseismic period, inducing subsidence in the offshore domain and uplift in the onshore region. In contrast, megathrust earthquakes will impart the opposite surface displacement with offshore uplift and onshore subsidence. Such a purely elastic description of the earthquake cycle implies that interseismic deformation should be entirely compensated by large megathrust earthquakes, amounting to effectively zero deformation over numerous cycles. Recent studies however propose that spatial patterns of interseismic (short-term) deformation are reflected in long-term trends of coastal uplift (Jolivet et al., 2020), as well as in the morphology of subduction margins, which is shaped over 100s of kyrs by the interaction of tectonic and surface processes (Malatesta et al., 2021). This suggests that the repetition of seemingly elastic cycles somehow leads to non-recoverable long-term deformation.

We postulate that a small increment of inelastic deformation accumulates during each interseismic phase, leading to a long-term unbalance of co-, post- and interseismic strain. To test this hypothesis, we evaluate the variations in upper plate stress imparted by down-dip gradients in megathrust locking during the interseismic period in the Chile and Cascadia subduction zones. We add these changes to the estimated background stress state of the upper plate, and assess the extent of frictional yielding within the forearc as a function of interseismic slip deficit and upper plate strength. We find that the onset of yielding in the late interseismic phase coincides with observed areas of microseismicity at these subduction margins, typically located above the downdip end of the locked zone.

We then estimate the permanent surface uplift imparted by this upper plate yielding employing a statistical approach. We model frictional yielding of the forearc as incremental slip on a population of small faults whose spatial distribution reflects the fraction of the interseismic phase duration spent at yield. We further assume that the temporal distribution of these slip follows a Gutenberg-Richter distribution of parameters consistent with the observed microseismicity. Upon summing the displacements due to each of these dislocations, we estimate the irreversible surface displacement field associated with multiple seismic cycle.  This ultimately amounts to permanent uplift concentrated above the transition from freely slipping to fully coupled megathrust, and is consistent with the geometry and rates of long-term uplift recorded in Chile. We also demonstrate how our model can explain the recently reported correlation between location of downdip locking limit and shelf break in many active margins.

How to cite: Oryan, B., Olive, J.-A., Jolivet, R., Bruhat, L., and Malatesta, L.: Long-term coastal uplift due to non-recoverable forearc deformation during the interseismic phase of the subduction earthquake cycle, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1557, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1557, 2022.

EGU22-3457 | Presentations | TS4.7

Geodetic inference on decadal afterslip following the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake 

Sambuddha Dhar and Jun Muto

The postseismic deformation in the aftermath of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake showed a stronger surface movement in northeastern Japan (NE) with subsequent decays over time. In response to the coseismic stress perturbation, afterslip on the megathrust interface is held responsible for the short-term deformation while viscoelastic relaxation in the surrounding lithosphere largely contributes to the long-term crustal deformation (e.g., Ozawa et al. 2012, JGR). On the contrary, decade-long studies on the postseismic model implied the prevalence of viscoelastic flow during the early phase of postseismic deformation (e.g., Sun et al. 2014, Nature, Watanabe et al. 2014, GRL, Freed et al. 2017, EPSL; Muto et al. 2016, GRL). Although geodetic displacement at any GNSS station may not indicate the single domination of either viscoelastic relaxation or afterslip over the longer period after the earthquake, the densely deployed nationwide GNSS observations (GEONET) till ~2021 provides a definite opportunity to resolve the contributions of various source mechanisms and their evolution over time.

 

Time series of geodetic observations are mainly explained using a numerical simulation of the source mechanisms (e.g., Agata et al. 2019 Nat. commun.; Luo & Wang 2021, Nat. Geosci.; Muto et al. 2019, Sci. Adv.; Fukuda & Johnson 2021, JGR) or non-linear regression of a fitting function (Tobita 2016, EPS). Utilizing the lesson learnt from the postseismic model built on laboratory-derived constitutive laws, we proposed an analytical fitting function for the GNSS time-series over the NE Japan. We deploy statistical approaches to ensure its stability and robustness. Our analytical function can be used to fit and predict the postseismic displacements at GNSS stations and understand the relative contributions of source mechanisms in lesser efforts.  We conclude that the afterslip at the downdip of the main rupture zone may continue for several decades following the megathrust earthquake. The decade-long records of repeating earthquakes on the plate boundary reiterate a similar conclusion concerning the longer persistence of afterslip in the Japan subduction zone (Igarashi & Kato 2021, Commun. Earth Env.; Uchida 2019, PEPS).

 

Our results also show that viscoelastic relaxation dominates immediately following the mega-earthquake at most inland GNSS stations. This conclusion can be supported by comparing the geodetic displacements with aftershock decay patterns (Morikami & Mitsui 2020, EPS), including recently developed stress-dependent postseismic deformation models (Agata et al. 2019, Nat. Commun; Fukuda & Johnson 2021, JGR; Muto et al. 2019, Sci. Adv).  Nevertheless, the previous studies indicate a change in the dominant mechanism of the postseismic deformation after the year ~2013-2015, particularly evident in the vertical motion (Morikami & Mitsui 2020, EPS; Yamaga & Mitsui 2019, GRL). We suggest that the transient deformation of the viscoelastic mantle decayed significantly during the ~3-4 years of the postseismic period, allowing the afterslip rate to supersede. The higher uplift rate along the Pacific coast of NE Japan, even after a decade, may reflect the shift in the dominant mechanism to the afterslip, persisting at the downdip of the main rupture zone.

How to cite: Dhar, S. and Muto, J.: Geodetic inference on decadal afterslip following the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3457, 2022.

At the end of 2020, anomalous transient surface deformation was observed by an operational GNSS network at the Noto peninsula, Japan. Although the Noto peninsula locates far from the plate boundary, seismic observations recorded that seismic swarms were accompanied with this transient deformation. Nishimura et al. (2021, presentation at the 2021 Geodetic Society of Japan) estimated that this deformation and swarms may be associated with the intrusion of water from the subducting oceanic plate. Here I performed Sentinel-1 InSAR time series analysis to obtain more detailed view of this transient displacement and to investigate the mechanism of this phenomenon.
In the analysis, at first I created interferograms from Sentinel-1 IW SLCs using ISCE2 software. Then these interferograms were used for the LiCSBAS time series analysis. Orbital and topographic fringes were modeled and removed based on precise orbit information and SRTM 1-arcsecond DEM. No atmospheric corrections were applied. I used both ascending and descending paths so that I could calculate 2.5 dimensional analysis to derive quasi-horizontal and quasi-vertical displacements.
The result of Sentinel-1 time series showed that the transient displacement seems to start since the end of 2020, which is consistent with the result from the GNSS observation. The estimated largest surface velocities became 13 mm/year in ascending and 15 mm/year in descending. The 2.5 dimensional analysis suggested that the uplift was concentrated at the eastern front of the peninsula, which is also consistent with the GNSS observation. The derived displacement fields suggested that there is an inflation source but this need to be further investigation by, for example, using elastic spherical and/or rectangular fault models.
By the presentation, I will perform the InSAR atmospheric correction and source modelling and show these results.

How to cite: Kinoshita, Y.: Transient small displacement since the end of 2020 at Noto peninsula, Japan, revealed by Sentinel-1 InSAR time series analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7145, 2022.

EGU22-7507 | Presentations | TS4.7

Slip model of the 2013 April 16 Mw 7.7 Saravan intra-slab earthquake (Makran subduction zone) derived from InSAR, GPS, and Teleseismic P-wave modeling 

Andrea Walpersdorf, Meysam Amiri, Erwan Pathier, Zahra Mousavi, Fatemeh Khorrami, and Sergey V. Samsonov

The 2013 April 16 Mw 7.7 Saravan earthquake, an intra-slab earthquake with a normal faulting mechanism at of 50 km depth, occurred in the western part of the Makran subduction zone, where the Arabian oceanic lithosphere subducts northward under Iran and Pakistan. This event was the first instrumental recorded earthquake with a magnitude larger than Mw 6 since the last century. Studying this earthquake using geodetic and seismological data brings a unique opportunity to measure surface displacement due to the earthquake and assess causative fault parameters. Furthermore, it enables us to address some problems in the Makran subduction zone including slab dip angle, depth of dip angle change.

We used interferograms generated from RADARSAT-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data and coseismic GPS velocity field to combine with teleseismic P-wave data to model source fault parameters. First, we apply uniform slip modeling using a Bayesian bootstrap optimization nonlinear inversion method to find causative fault parameters. We specify search grids based on the LOS displacement map and focal mechanism solutions for each fault parameter to find the best solutions. These parameters include length, width, depth, strike, dip, rake, slip, location of the fault plane, rupture nucleation point, and origin time. Based on some prior tests and seismological information of earthquake, we decreased the search area of each parameter: depth 30- 70 km, dip 40˚- 80˚, strike 200˚-250˚, length 50-120 km, width 30-50 km, rake -150˚ -80˚ slip 1-4 m and let rupture nucleation point and origin time to be wide enough implying that all possible and reasonable fault geometry and kinematics parameters can be explored. Synthetic static displacements and seismic waveforms in a layered medium were computed with the Green's functions calculated using QSSP and PSGRN/PSCMP, respectively (Wang et al., 2006; Wang et al., 2017). A Green's function store contains pre-calculated Green's functions on a grid for combinations of source depth and source-receiver surface distance. For the layered half-space medium, we used the velocity structure of the GOSH seismic station to derive the Green Functions (Sebastian et al., 2016). After 450,000 iterations, the waveform fits, subsampled surface displacements as observed, modeled, and residual maps based on the best model are resolved. The distributions and resulting confidence intervals indicate that the parameters were well constrained. The joint inversion's best result indicates that the Saravan 2013 causative fault is a North-dipping normal fault with a dip of ~ 67°. The earthquake source length and width are approximately 120 and 80 km respectively.  In the second step, we model the derived fault plane in the previous step to retrieve the distributed slip model, allowing the slip to vary across the fault plane. In this step, all the parameters assumed fixed except slip. We extend fault length and width to 150 km and 100 km to prevent unwanted slip in the corners. The slip variation along the causative fault is characterized by one significant patch at the depth between 30-65 km with a maximum magnitude of about 4 m at 42-52 km.

How to cite: Walpersdorf, A., Amiri, M., Pathier, E., Mousavi, Z., Khorrami, F., and Samsonov, S. V.: Slip model of the 2013 April 16 Mw 7.7 Saravan intra-slab earthquake (Makran subduction zone) derived from InSAR, GPS, and Teleseismic P-wave modeling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7507, 2022.

EGU22-7630 | Presentations | TS4.7

InSAR constraints on interseismic slip-rate of the Esfarayen fault, northeastern Iran 

Zahra Mousavi, Andrea Walpersdorf, Erwan Pathier, and Richard Walker

In the last decades, GNSS constraints and geological estimates of the fault slip rates improve the understating of the kinematics of faulting across Iran, particularly in the northeastern part of the country. Here, we complete the sparse GNSS vectors from previous reported studies around the Baghan Quchan fault zone (BQFZ) in northeastern Iran, by processing the Sentinel-1 archives covering this zone. According to tectonic and geodetic studies, the right-lateral BQFZ and the left-lateral Esfarayen fault constitute the northeastern and southern limits, respectively, of the easternmost part of the South Caspian Basin. While the BQFZ is limiting the SCB towards Eurasia, the Esfarayen fault is its border towards the Iranian microplate. We constructed 452 interferograms with 102 images from 2014.10.29 to 2019.10.27 (5 years) in descending geometry using the NSBAS package. We combined all three swaths (iw1, iw2, iw3) to cover the area of interest. The revisit time is 24 days between 2014.10.29 and 2017.02. 15, and 12 days from 2017.02.15 to 2019.10.27. To remove the hydrogeological land displacement effect (charge and discharge of aquifers), we chose the first (2014.10.29) and the last image (2019.10.27) at the same time of the year. Following the SBAS time series analysis approach, we created interferograms with short temporal (one or two months) and spatial baselines. Also, to avoid introducing any artificial signal in the mean velocity map, we created some interferograms with longer temporal baselines (maximum one year). We removed the neutral atmospheric delay using global reanalysis data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Then, we filtered and unwrapped the generated interferograms. We applied the SBAS time series analysis on the generated interferograms to obtain displacement variations in time and a mean velocity map in the line of sight (LOS) direction of the satellites. The first noticeable point is the LOS mean velocity change across the BQFZ fault reaching up to ~1.5 mm/yr in the LOS direction, compatible with right-lateral displacement. Moreover, the mean velocity map varies significantly across the Esfarayen fault, in a sense coherent with left-lateral displacement. This velocity map points out that the NW motion of the South Caspian basin is effectively accommodated by the Esfarayen fault, while previous work based on the sparse GNSS network (Mousavi et al., 2013) suggested that the Bojnord fault further north is accommodating this NW motion. In particular, the new InSAR map indicates that the velocity vector of the permanent GNSS station ESFN used by Mousavi et al. (2013) is contaminated by subsidence motion and cannot be representative of a tectonic motion. This study brings new information for assessing seismic hazard in NE Iran with large population centers. Moreover, the retrieved mean velocity map indicates significant subsidence in Nishabour and Jajarm cities and Joveyn, Chahar Borj, Chenaran, Faruj and Ribat Jaz villages in Iran, as well as in the Yashklik city in Turkmenistan. This is the first report of subsidence occurring in Turkmenistan.

How to cite: Mousavi, Z., Walpersdorf, A., Pathier, E., and Walker, R.: InSAR constraints on interseismic slip-rate of the Esfarayen fault, northeastern Iran, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7630, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7630, 2022.

EGU22-8195 | Presentations | TS4.7

Spatial distribution of creep on a creeping thrust fault: Joint inversion using geodetic data and repeating earthquakes 

Wei Peng, Mathilde Radiguet, Erwan Pathier, and Kate Huihsuan Chen

The Chihshang fault in Taiwan serves as one of the best examples of faults with a primarily thrust component that rapidly creep at the surface (2-3 cm/yr), while it is also known to have produced magnitude 6 earthquakes. The deeper portion of this thrust fault is typically offshore, where land-based geodetic measurements are insensitive to fault slip at greater depth. The understanding of inter-seismic slip rate at depth therefore, remains elusive. Taking advantages of slip rates inferred from repeating earthquake sequences (RES) at greater depth, here we present a modified method that embeds RES derived slip rate into the neighboring fault patch for geodetic data inversion. Using the geodetic and seismological data from 2007 to 2011, we reach the higher resolution of interseismic slip rate distribution below the depth of 15 km. The inferred low coupling ratio establishes the extensive creeping area that coincides with the location of abundant repeating earthquakes and swarm events. The inferred high coupling ratio on the other hand, delineates the locked area corresponding to the co- seismic slip zone of the 2003 Mw6 Chengkung earthquake. The postseismic area however, is found to mainly overlapped with the low coupling ratio area at shallow depth (freely creeping) but not where the microseismcity, repeating and swarm events are located (partially creeping). We propose that the strongly locked area is concentrated in the middle of the fault extending from near surface to the depth of 25 km, surrounded by the creeping areas where microseismicity, repeating and swarm events are taking place. We estimate that a slip rate deficit equivalent to Mw 6.26 has accumulated annually, which may be able to generate greater than Mw 7 event over an interval of 20 years. It is thus importance, to follow up by time-dependent kinematic model in the future for better estimate of large earthquake potential in this creeping fault.

How to cite: Peng, W., Radiguet, M., Pathier, E., and Chen, K. H.: Spatial distribution of creep on a creeping thrust fault: Joint inversion using geodetic data and repeating earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8195, 2022.

Bob Elliott, Ken McCaffrey, Richard Walters (all Durham University), Dave Mackenzie (3vGeomatics), Laura Gregory (Leeds University)

Characterising near-fault deformation can improve understanding of how major co-seismic slip at depth is transferred to the surface. Deformation observed close to the fault scarp can identify where there has been shallow slip deficit, and the role of minor faults adjacent to the main faults as controlling influences in co-seismic slip distribution. However, field work and remote sensing techniques such as InSAR and GNSS are often inefficient or unreliable in characterising near-fault deformation due to exposure and data resolution issues. We use high resolution topographical models from optical satellite data from the Pleiades constellations to help identify the co-seismic deformation associated with the 30th October 2016 Norcia earthquake.  We jointly inverted a total of 11 datasets including Pleiades-derived DEM difference data, InSAR and GNSS (far-field and short baseline)) for slip at depth following the method of Okada (1985). Compared to previous models derived from geodetic datasets, we used a relatively complicated fault geometry set-up in the area covered by the Pleiades datasets. By combining the near-fault input provided by the Pleiades data with far-field data we were able to model near-surface slip as well as slip at depth with a good fit to the Pleiades data, without losing the fit to the far-field data. The results show remarkable detail of slip transfer from the main faults onto minor structures in the hanging wall of the Monte Vettore fault within the top 2 km below the surface. Slip vectors near the surface also display considerable divergence from slip vectors at depth. This research provides valuable insight into the distribution of near-fault co-seismic slip in an area of complex faulting, 

How to cite: Elliott, B.: Characterising near-fault deformation in the Apennines through the use of high-resolution Pleiades optical satellite data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8527, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8527, 2022.

Despite decades-long debate over the mechanics of low-angle normal faults dipping less than 30°, many questions about their strength, stress, and slip remain unresolved. Recent geologic and geophysical observations have confirmed that gently-dipping detachment faults can slip at such shallow dips and host moderate-to-large earthquakes. Here, we analyze the first 3D dynamic rupture models to assess how different stress and strength conditions affect rupture characteristics of low-angle normal fault earthquakes. We model observationally constrained spontaneous rupture under different loading conditions on the active Mai’iu fault in Papua New Guinea, which dips 16-24° at the surface and accommodates ~8 mm/yr of horizontal extension. We analyze four distinct fault-local stress scenarios: 1) Andersonian extension, as inferred in the hanging wall; 2) back-rotated principal stresses inferred paleopiezometrically from the exhumed footwall; 3) favorably rotated principal stresses well-aligned for low-angle normal-sense slip; and 4) Andersonian extension derived from depth-variable static fault friction decreasing towards the surface. Our modeling suggests that subcritically stressed detachment faults can host moderate earthquakes within purely Andersonian stress fields. Near-surface rupture is impeded by free-surface stress interactions and dynamic effects of the gently-dipping geometry and frictionally stable gouges of the shallowest portion of the fault. Although favorably-inclined principal stresses have been proposed for some detachments, these conditions are not necessary for seismic slip on these faults. Finally, we explore how off-fault damage and slip on steeper splay faults in the hanging wall of a detachment fault influences shallow rupture patterns and coseismic surface displacement during large earthquakes. We present a new suite of models with synthetic or antithetic splay faults dipping 45°, 60°, or 75° that incorporate off-fault plastic failure for different host rock strengths. Coseismic splay fault reactivation limits shallow slip on the detachment and localizes surface displacements outboard of the detachment trace, most strongly when synthetic shallowly-dipping splay faults are present. Our results demonstrate how integrated geophysical and geologic observations can constrain dynamic rupture model parameters to develop realistic rupture scenarios of active faults that may pose significant seismic and tsunami hazards to nearby communities.

How to cite: Biemiller, J., Gabriel, A., and Ulrich, T.: Mechanics of shallow slip in low-angle normal fault earthquakes: insight from 3D dynamic rupture models constrained by multi-timescale observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10556, 2022.

EGU22-10732 | Presentations | TS4.7

Shear of simulated quartz-feldspar aggregates under conditions spanning the brittle-plastic transition 

Miho Furukawa, Berend A. Verberne, Jun Muto, Miki Takahashi, and Hiroyuki Nagahama

Continental earthquakes often nucleate at the brittle-plastic transition zone in the upper crust. Since the strength of the crust reaches the maximum here, it is inferred that strain is localized, leading to seismic rupture. Fault rock deformation experiments under pressure-temperature conditions simulating the brittle-plastic transition are key to unravel the processes triggering continental earthquakes. We investigated the mechanical behavior and post-mortem microstructure of simulated quartz-feldspar gouges using a Griggs-type solid medium apparatus. The samples consist of mixtures of powdered quartz: albite = 50 : 50 (wt%), which were sheared under pressure-temperature conditions simulating depths of 7 to 30 km, realizing a geothermal gradient of 30 °C/km and a lithostatic pressure corresponding to a granitoid rock density of 2700 kg/m3. Specifically, experiments were carried out at temperatures ranging from 210 °C to 900 °C and confining pressures ranging from 185 MPa to 870 MPa. The bulk shear strain rate was sequentially stepped between ~10-3 and ~10-4 /s. After the experiments, each sample was analyzed using optical and scanning electron microscopy.

Experimental results show a clear positive dependence of the shear strength on temperature and pressure up to 720 °C and 750 MPa, suggesting the dominance of brittle deformation. On the contrary, when the condition rises to 900 °C and 870 MPa, the strength dropped by about 550 MPa compared with that of at 720 °C and 750 MPa. This may imply that the plastic deformation gradually has taken over the deformation. Microstructural observation revealed elongated grains with their long axes intersecting with the direction of a Riedel-1(R1) shear plane (i.e., similar to a S-C fabric). Some grains were reduced in size to the nanometer range. Our observations suggest that shear strain was highly concentrated within fine-grained zones, which, we speculate, may lead to catastrophic rupture. Crack distributions illuminated by image analysis indicate that the formation mechanism of crack changes with temperature and pressure. At the lower temperature (~ 240 °C) and pressure (~ 212 MPa), cracks are short and oriented to various directions. However, as the temperature and pressure increase to 300 °C and 265 MPa, they become longer and the ratios of R1- and Y- shears increase. This implies that cracks coalesce in the kinematically favored orientations for slip, making it easy to cause a rapid seismic rupture. Since such microstructural changes occur at relatively low temperatures (below 720 °C), it is expected that the structures at higher temperatures (720 °C or higher) show predominance of the plastic deformation. Our results imply that the brittle-plastic transition gradually takes place at the microscopic scale, even within the range where the bulk mechanical behavior indicates brittle deformation.

How to cite: Furukawa, M., Verberne, B. A., Muto, J., Takahashi, M., and Nagahama, H.: Shear of simulated quartz-feldspar aggregates under conditions spanning the brittle-plastic transition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10732, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10732, 2022.

EGU22-12020 | Presentations | TS4.7 | Highlight

Source parameters and locations of the 1949 Mw7.4 Khait and 1907 Mw7.6 Karatag earthquakes: implications for how mountain ranges collide 

Ben Johnson, Galina Kulikova, Eric Bergman, Frank Krueger, Ian Pierce, James Hollingsworth, Alex Copley, Mike Kendall, and Richard Walker

The 1949 Mw7.4 Khait and 1907 Mw7.6 Karatag earthquakes are the two largest earthquakes of the last ~100 years within Tajikistan, in a zone of convergence between the Pamir and Tian Shan ranges at a rate of ~1cm/yr. The historical nature of these events means seismological and geodetic data are lacking. As such, their locations and source parameters have been very uncertain – preventing our understanding of how they fit into the tectonic model of the north-western Pamir.  

Here we present calibrated earthquake relocations for the 1949 earthquake and focal mechanisms determined from digitised seismograms for the 1949 and 1907 earthquakes. We also present a catalog of precise relocations for moderate magnitude earthquakes from 1949 to the present in vicinity of the Vakhsh Thrust. Finally, we present earthquake surface rupture mapping from the Vakhsh Valley, determined from ultra-high resolution elevation models derived from satellite stereo-imagery.  

We find that the 1949 Khait earthquake did not occur on the Vakhsh Fault, a major right-lateral fault that bounds the northern margin of the Pamir, as previously thought. Instead it occurred on an unmapped fault in the Tian Shan basement. However, 10-20m scarps observed on the south Vakhsh valley show this fault is capable of producing large earthquakes. This tells us the Pamir–Tian Shan convergence is distributed across several basement faults capable of producing large earthquakes. It also tells us that the largest earthquakes may occur on faults which may appear minor in the landscape, which has implications for seismic hazard in the region.  

How to cite: Johnson, B., Kulikova, G., Bergman, E., Krueger, F., Pierce, I., Hollingsworth, J., Copley, A., Kendall, M., and Walker, R.: Source parameters and locations of the 1949 Mw7.4 Khait and 1907 Mw7.6 Karatag earthquakes: implications for how mountain ranges collide, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12020, 2022.

SM5 – Seismic Imaging Across Scales (from near-surface to global scale, incl. methodological developments)

EGU22-5878 | Presentations | SM5.1

Characterization of the Elmshorn salt diapir caprock by SH-wave reflection seismic and Full Waveform Inversion 

Rebekka Mecking, Ulrich Polom, Andreas Omlin, and Philipp Leineweber

Both sudden and continuous subsidence of the earth’s surface pose a geohazard to the population and infrastructure, especially in urban areas. In Northern Germany, sinkholes occur often at salt dome highs, where dissolution affects the caprock, creating mass deficits in the shallow subsurface. Gravitationally driven subsidence of the overburden subsequently leads to both slow and sudden deformations of the surface.

The city of Elmshorn, situated partly on the top of a shallow salt dome structure of nearly 30-40 m below surface, has to deal with such surface deformations which have been the motivation of several investigations in recent decades. Existing geologic data based on drillings has recently been extended by a shear wave seismic 2D profile grid, to support mapping of the spatial course of the salt structures and overlying sediments in high resolution, and to identify areas prone to subrosion more precisely. The seismic profiles were acquired using an Elvis shear wave vibrator (source signal: 20-160 Hz sweep) and a land streamer attached with 10 Hz horizontal geophones in 1 m spacing. High-resolution stacked sections of 0.5 m CMP spacing were generated using shot spacing of 2-4 m. The profile grid shows that the shear wave reflection methodology is suitable to image the heterogeneous caprock surface and the fine structure of the overlaying Quaternary sediments. Strong topographic variations in the caprock surface and strongly heterogeneous lithology of both caprock and overlying sediments occur over short lateral distances less than 100 m, reinforcing the requirements for a close-meshed profile grid. Different caprock lithologies can be distinguished by changes in reflectivity and wavelength. Further, derived physical parameters based on full waveform inversions enable the characterization of the caprock surface and the integrity of the overlying sediments to estimate areas affected by subrosion.

The results highlight the structural information capabilities of the shear wave reflection method for the investigation of subrosion-prone areas as well as the further potential of the methodology to improve the knowledge of subrosion process sequences.

How to cite: Mecking, R., Polom, U., Omlin, A., and Leineweber, P.: Characterization of the Elmshorn salt diapir caprock by SH-wave reflection seismic and Full Waveform Inversion, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5878, 2022.

EGU22-6125 | Presentations | SM5.1

In situ estimation of effective rock elastic moduli by seismic ambient vibrations 

Jozef Müller and Jan Burjánek

In this study, we performed a non-invasive ambient noise investigation of unsaturated rock structures in the Bohemian Paradise (Bohemian Cretaceous Basin, Czech Republic). Our study focused on two key topics: 1) An in situ elastic moduli estimate of competent, horizontally deposited sandstone layers using ambient noise array measurements. Recordings were processed using an f-k array analysis, from which frequency-dependent Love and Rayleigh wave dispersion curves, as well as Rayleigh wave ellipticity, were retrieved. Data were inverted for the P- and S-wave velocity profiles, from which Young’s and shear moduli were successfully estimated. 2) A study of the local response of the Kapelník rock tower. We analysed a dataset of ambient noise recordings obtained from the top of the tower and its foot. Information regarding tower oscillation frequencies and directions, together with amplification ratios, were retrieved from a particle motion polarisation analysis and from site-to-reference spectral ratios. Euler-Bernoulli beam theory was also employed for interpreting measured data using elastic moduli estimated from noise array measurements.

How to cite: Müller, J. and Burjánek, J.: In situ estimation of effective rock elastic moduli by seismic ambient vibrations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6125, 2022.

EGU22-6997 | Presentations | SM5.1

Multicomponent seismic acquisition for the characterization of the groundwater system at Kurikka, western Finland 

Michal Malinowski, Suvi Heinonen, Elina Koskela, and Viveka Laakso

Reflection seismic is indispensable in evaluating depth, lateral extent, and heterogeneity of the shallow aquifers related to e.g., glacial sediments. Kurikka area in western Finland is an example of a complex groundwater system. It is being studied for its potential to supply water to the nearby city of Vaasa (with around ~150000 people and large industries in the area). The confined aquifer is topped with soft lake sediments and clays. Below the clays, a mixture of sands and gravels extends down to the bedrock, which can be as deep as 70-100 m. Felsic rocks (granites, granodiorites) constituting bedrock are weathered, fractured, and faulted. Because of the sparse outcrops, mapping of the bedrock fracture zones was based on gravity data and boreholes. Location, dimension, and connectivity of those fractures constitute a big uncertainty in the groundwater flow modeling.

We performed a multicomponent seismic survey in October 2021 west of the town of Kurikka along 3 seismic profiles in order to characterize the fractured and weathered bedrock, as well as the internal structure of the aquifer and its seal. The seismic profiles were acquired along gravel roads and were crossing the inferred fractures and a zone of a rapid change of bedrock elevation. Besides the geological objectives, we tested the performance of the lightweight Vibroseis source (SeismicMechatronics Lightning) and the operational aspects of the Finnish national pool of seismic instruments (Flex-EPOS) consisting of nodal 3C recorders and 3C geophones (https://wiki.helsinki.fi/display/FLEX/Large-N+Devices). Lightning is an electrically driven seismic vibrator (E-vib) based on the linear synchronous motor principle. It weights ca. 90 kg and can be used in both P- and S-wave mode offering 1.3 and 1.8kN force, respectively, with a full-force sweep frequency of 8-400 Hz (capable of sweeping between 1-1000 Hz at lower force). All profiles were shot in P-wave and SH-wave mode, resulting in a comprehensive and good quality 6C dataset. Lightning source proved to provide useful first-break energy up to 600 m offset. A clear bedrock reflection can be correlated in P-P (vertical source – vertical component) and S-S (horizontal source – crossline component) shot gathers. Prominent reflections were also observed in the sediments, with a broadband frequency response (up to 200 Hz).

The FIN-EPOS and FLEX-EPOS are funded by Academy of Finland (Funding Decisions no. 328984, 328776, 328778, 328779, 328780, 328781, 328782, 328784 and 328786)

How to cite: Malinowski, M., Heinonen, S., Koskela, E., and Laakso, V.: Multicomponent seismic acquisition for the characterization of the groundwater system at Kurikka, western Finland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6997, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6997, 2022.

EGU22-7959 | Presentations | SM5.1

Investigating a small-scale archaeological feature in the ancient city of Miletus using shear wave seismics 

Simon Levin Fischer, Ercan Erkul, Manuel Zolchow, Ismail Kaplanvural, Helmut Brückner, Christof Berns, and Wolfgang Rabbel

The ancient city Miletus is located at the Mediterranean coast of present Turkey. Its former geographical position on a land tongue in the Gulf of Miletus with four bays, which can be used as harbours, made the city a place of great economical interest. During the last decades, several archaeological and geophysical investigations were carried out to reconstruct the cityscape of Miletus.
In 2018, geoelectrical measurements revealed a high-resistive anomaly near the ancient western market place. The aim of the presented study is a more detailed imaging of this anomaly with help of shear wave seismic methods. 
For this purpose, a 35.5m long profile was build up across the geoelectric anomaly. An overall of 72 S-geophones was used with a spacing of 0.5m. Shots were struck every 1m by the use of a hammer and a shear wave source. 
A "simple" velocity evaluation by the Wiechert-Herglotz method shows shear-wave velocities between 270-380 m/s in the first three meters. This depth gradient of velocities is verified by a refraction tomography using the first breaks of each channel. The tomography also shows a high velocity zone of about 470 m/s in the deepest part of the model. 
A Full Waveform Inversion (FWI) was calculated using the refraction tomography as a start model. The inversion model shows three distinct high velocity zones in a, apart of these anomalies, quite homogeneous model. In these zones, velocity reaches values of more than 500 m/s. 
The results are in accordance to geoelectrical measurements conducted on the same profile. High velocity zones strongly correlate with areas of higher electrical resistivity. Corings near these velocity and resistivity anomalies show massive layers of limestone starting at a depth of about 1.5m and thus verify the findings of the geophysical investigations.
In conclusion, the shear wave seismic measurements are capable of resolving small-scale features even in shallow depths, especially with help of FWI. Together with the geoelectrics and corings, the results deliver an important contribution for the further interpretation of the buried archaeological feature.

How to cite: Fischer, S. L., Erkul, E., Zolchow, M., Kaplanvural, I., Brückner, H., Berns, C., and Rabbel, W.: Investigating a small-scale archaeological feature in the ancient city of Miletus using shear wave seismics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7959, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7959, 2022.

EGU22-10995 | Presentations | SM5.1

Seismic attributes in unconsolidated near-surface sediments 

Barbara Dietiker, Kevin Brewer, Timothy Cartwright, Heather Crow, and Andre J.-M. Pugin

The calculation, analysis and interpretation of seismic attributes is an important tool in reservoir seismology and has been used since the 1950’s to improve the characterization of oil and gas fields around the world.

Recent applications of seismic attributes in the near surface use the coherency attribute to detect faults as well as average and normalized frequencies and similarity to map ground instability and image sinkholes. Seismic attributes are also used to assess unconsolidated oil sand reservoirs, to evaluate ocean/lake bottom responses from unconsolidated sediments, and to visualize the internal structure of mass transport deposits. In unconsolidated near-surface sediments seismic attributes are rarely used. This is likely due to the high variability present in the near surface.

Combined P-/S-attributes are difficult to obtain because of the large difference between P-wave and S-wave velocity, as well as frequency and resolution. Therefore, the most important step to obtain these combined attributes is performing depth conversions for the P- and S-wave reflection profiles that perfectly match horizons and features in the depth domain.

We present commonly used attributes calculated from a shear-wave reflection profile imaging the dome structure of an esker. Attributes calculated from the compressional-wave reflections are compared to the shear-wave attributes which benefit from higher resolution than P-wave attributes. We highlight the attributes which best enhance the general subsurface structure and list new information gained from different attributes.

How to cite: Dietiker, B., Brewer, K., Cartwright, T., Crow, H., and Pugin, A. J.-M.: Seismic attributes in unconsolidated near-surface sediments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10995, 2022.

EGU22-11322 | Presentations | SM5.1

Reflection seismic investigation of a subrosion area using a combined approach of P- and SH-waves 

Sonja Wadas, Hermann Buness, Raphael Rochlitz, Thomas Günther, Peter Skiba, Michael Grinat, Ulrich Polom, David Tanner, and Charlotte Krawczyk

Subrosion, the dissolution of soluble rocks, e.g., sulfate, salt, or carbonate, and the resulting structures, such as sinkholes and depressions, are a great geohazard because they can cause damage to buildings and infrastructure, and lead to life-threatening situations. The process requires unsaturated water and fluid pathways that enable the water to flow through the subsurface and generate cavities.

In Germany, sinkholes are a widespread problem, because soluble rocks, such as gypsum and anhydrite, are located close to the surface in many areas. One such area is the federal state of Thuringia, where our study area Bad Frankenhausen is situated.

For a better understanding of the local subrosion processes and structures, a detailed subsurface characterization of sinkholes and small- and large-scale depressions was necessary. Therefore, we used P-wave and SH-wave reflection seismics for high-resolution imaging of the near-surface. We were able to identify covered subrosion structures and –zones, and faults and fractures, which serve as fluid pathways. The seismic investigations were supplemented by geoelectric and gravimetric surveys in order to validate the interpreted fluid pathways and areas of underground mass movement.

We conclude that tectonic movements during the Tertiary, which lead to the uplift of the Kyffhäuser hills north of Bad Frankenhausen and the formation of faults parallel and perpendicular to the low mountain range, were the initial trigger for subrosion. The faults and the fractured Triassic and Lower Tertiary deposits serve as fluid pathways for groundwater to leach the deep Permian Zechstein deposits, and subrosion is more intense near faults. The artesian-confined salt water ascends towards the surface along the faults and fracture networks, which formed an inland salt marsh over time. In the past, subrosion of the soluble Zechstein Formations formed several, now covered, sagging and collapse structures, and, since the entire region is affected by recent sinkhole development subrosion must be still ongoing.

Due to the results of this study, we suggest a combined approach using P- and SH-wave reflection seismics to identify and analyse subrosion structures, and to use additional geophysical methods like electromagnetic- and gravimetric surveys to develop a more comprehensive model explaining the local subrosion processes.

How to cite: Wadas, S., Buness, H., Rochlitz, R., Günther, T., Skiba, P., Grinat, M., Polom, U., Tanner, D., and Krawczyk, C.: Reflection seismic investigation of a subrosion area using a combined approach of P- and SH-waves, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11322, 2022.

EGU22-154 | Presentations | SM5.2

High-resolution seismic investigation in phosphate mining 

anas charbaoui

Charbaoui A.(1*), Jaffal M.(1,2), Kchikach A.(1,2), Eljabbar B.(1), Bodinier J,L.(1,3), Rochdane S.(1), Khadiri O.(4), Jourani E.(4)

 

(1) Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Geology and Sustainable Mining (GSM), Benguerir, Morocco

(2) Cadi Ayyad University, Georessources, Geoenvironment & Civil Engineering Laboratory, Marrakech, Morocco

(3) University of Montpellier & CNRS, Geosciences Montpellier, Montpellier, France.

(4) OCP Group, Casablanca, Morocco

*Email: anas.charbaoui@um6p.ma

 

Abstract

Seismic reflection is extensively used in petroleum exploration because it is recognized as an excellent tool of geological imaging, especially for sedimentary basins. In recent years, a variant of this method, namely the high-resolution seismic reflection (HRS) has experienced a rapid development due its implementation in many shallow geophysical investigations including studies in geotechnics, hydrogeology, structural geology, seismic hazard estimation, etc. This method can provide continuous coverage of the underground in two-dimensional 2-D, as well as in three-dimensional 3-D spaces. The HRS method has a lot of successful applications in shallow underground prospecting for various purposes (Tallini et al. 2020, Ahokangas et al. 2020).

The present project is concerned with the study of the Bahira basin, which hosts some of the most important phosphate deposits of Morocco. Its main objective is to provide a detailed seismic imaging of the phosphatic series, particularly in the area where it is hidden by a plio-quaternary cover. The Bahira phosphatic series is made of a Maastrichtian to Ypresian regular intercalation of phosphate beds and sterile layers.

The studies planned in order to reach this objective include first and foremost, the knowledge of the different terms of phosphatic series through (i) the analysis the available boreholes data, so as to gather information about the thickness of the layers, their lithological lateral change, etc., and (ii) the measurement of the rock properties necessary for the seismic modelling. The next step is to carry out numerical simulations that would help establish the expected seismic response of the phosphatic series. This also would aid to determine the appropriate parameters of the subsequent data acquisition. The third step is to perform HRS survey on the areas of interest. This will includes 2D surface seismic profiling and borehole vertical profiling (VSP). The projected studies also include performing measurements of Electrical Resistivity Tomography along the same survey profiles as the HRS. This would help realize a joint inversion of the two type of data and contribute to a better understanding the phosphatic series deep structure.

 

References:

[1] Tallini M., Spadi M., Cosentino D., Nocentini M., Cavuoto G., Di Fiore V., 2020. High-resolution seismic reflection exploration for evaluating the seismic hazard in a Plio-Quaternary intermontane basin (L'Aquila downtown, central Italy). Quaternary Iternational (In press)

[2] Ahokangas E., Mäkinen J., Artimo A., Pasanen A., Vanhala H., 2020. Reflection method with landstreamer in SW Finland, Journal of Applied Geophysics 177, 104014

Keywords: Phosphatic series, high-resolution seismic imaging, numerical simulations, Joint inversion, Bahira basin, Morocco.

How to cite: charbaoui, A.: High-resolution seismic investigation in phosphate mining, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-154, 2022.

EGU22-657 | Presentations | SM5.2

Multidimensional forward modelling of EM induction data within a salinization context – is it worth the extra cost? 

Wouter Deleersnyder, Thomas Hermans, and David Dudal

In (time-domain) Electromagnetic Induction (EMI) surveys, an image of the electrical conductivity of the subsurface is obtained non-invasively. The electrical conductivity serves as a proxy for salinity via petrophysical laws. The advantage of geophysical EMI surveys is their cost-effectiveness because it is a non-contacting method, one can easily walk with the device or mount it on a vehicle or a helicopter (AEM).

An accurate interpretation of the data is computationally expensive as it requires a full 3D simulation of the induced electric currents embedded within an iterative and ill-posed inverse problem. Therefore, this forward model is usually approximated with an 1D forward model which only considers horizontal layers, for which fast analytical forward models exist. Quasi-2/3D inversion allows for lateral variation in the subsurface models, but uses those 1D forward models to generate the data. The final inversion model usually fits the (potentially intrinsic 2/3D) data well up to noise level. But what with the discrepancy between the 1D and 2D data? The biased modelling error, introduced by using a 1D forward model in a 3D problem, is difficult to estimate. Does the inversion model that fits the data via 1D model also fit the data via a 3D model? This question has already been addressed in the literature about fault detection, but in a saltwater intrusion context, the lateral variation is expected to be much smoother. And the question remains to what extent multidimensional modelling is crucial.

The time-domain AEM field data from the salinization map of the region of Flanders, Belgium is used as the case study (Flanders environment agency published the map in 2019). A specific flight line is selected for which validation data is available that shows a 2D (lateral) variation. Both results from the quasi-2D and stitched inversion with a traditional smoothing regularization is presented. An accurate 3D forward modelling is performed on both inversion models via the SimPEG package. The results of the simulations are compared with the actual field data and help us to answer the question of whether multidimensional modelling is crucial in geophysical inversion at the AEM scales and a saltwater intrusion context.

How to cite: Deleersnyder, W., Hermans, T., and Dudal, D.: Multidimensional forward modelling of EM induction data within a salinization context – is it worth the extra cost?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-657, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-657, 2022.

EGU22-905 | Presentations | SM5.2

Shear wave velocity estimation in the Sylhet Basin, Bangladesh by H/V analysis: implication for geophysical bedrock depth 

Atikul Haque Farazi, Md. Shakhawat Hossain, and Yoshihiro Ito

The densely populated Bangladesh occupies most of the part of the Bengal Basin; the basin is located just above the subduction margin extended with an N-S alignment between the Indian and the Burmese Plates. The subduction tectonics along this Indo-Burmese plate boundary has put this locality to high seismic risk, which is also supported by the historical earthquake records. Moreover, being in the foothill of the Himalayan Mountains and the Indo-Burmese Ranges, respectively, to the North and the East, this country has become extremely riverine to be filled by sediments. Soft sedimentary layers over geophysical bedrock, with shear-wave velocity, VS > 760 m/s, can significantly amplify earthquake ground motion to cause damage to infrastructure. In addition, bedrock depth significantly controls the phenomena of soil-infrastructure vibration resonance. That is why, for seismic risk evaluation, it is essential to have adequate information on soft sediment thickness or depth to the sediment-bedrock interface.

The continuously subsiding Sylhet Basin (SB, Zone 1), being a sub-basin within the northern limit of the Bengal Basin, is the flexural depocenter in the northeastern Bangladesh with possibly the thickest (~ 25 km) sedimentary successions (Bürgi et. al. 2021). The active Dauki Fault demarcates the northern limit of the Sylhet Basin as well as the Bengal basin, along which the Shillong Plateau has been uplifted.

In this work, we present VS velocity up to 3000 m beneath three seismic stations in the Sylhet Basin, namely JAML, SUST and JAFL, data of which are available in the Incorporated Research Institutes for Seismology (IRIS) website. Here, subsurface VS profile is estimated by inversion of single-station horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratio curve within 0.2 to 10 Hz. The H/V curves at three stations are obtained from 15 days continuous recordings of seismic ambient noise data. We use HV-Inv software (García-Jerez et. al. 2016) for the inversion, in which the H/V ratio is interpreted under the diffuse filed assumption (Sánchez-Sesma et. al. 2011) for full H/V inversion considering contribution from the full noise wavefield. The inversion process is constrained using the existing general lithological information as well as unpublishable VP data from active seismic surveys of Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration Company Ltd. (BAPEX).

From this analysis, we find that geophysical bedrock depth is approximately at 180 m, 220 m and 160 m, respectively, below the stations JAML, SUST and JAFL. To the best of our knowledge, neither the current approach of VS estimation was applied nor such high-resolution VSinformation of sedimentary successions was reported in the study area previously. The presented velocity information could be crucial for engineering development, seismic hazard mitigation, and exploration purpose in the Sylhet Basin. 

How to cite: Farazi, A. H., Hossain, Md. S., and Ito, Y.: Shear wave velocity estimation in the Sylhet Basin, Bangladesh by H/V analysis: implication for geophysical bedrock depth, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-905, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-905, 2022.

EGU22-977 | Presentations | SM5.2

The use of microseismic technology to optimize fracture connectivity in  unconventional reservoirs 

Mahmoud Gomaa, Ibrahim Alhilali, Ali AlEid, Mohammed Hamza, Sherif Allam, and SanLinn Kaka

The use of microseismic technology to optimize fracture connectivity in  unconventional reservoirs

Mahmoud Mowafi, Ibrahim Alhilali, Ali AlEid, Mohammed Hamza, Sherif Allam and SanLinn Kaka

College of Petroleum Engineering and Geosciences

King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals

Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia

 

Unconventional reservoirs represent a challenging scenario to optimize the subsurface connectivity and production efficiencies. Heterogeneity is one of the main factors impacting well capability. Furthermore, the size and quality of the interconnected fracture network consequently enhance reservoir stimulation and permeability. We undertake this study to review the impact and efficiency of microseismic monitoring technology in  1) determining the growth of hydraulic fracture, 2) enhancing the understanding of fracture networks,  3) evaluating risks, and  4) estimating the production values of unconventional resources.  We subsequently develop a workflow to predict the possible range of stimulated reservoir volume using available data compiled from various literature. Our data were mainly from   North American and  China. The data were processed and analyzed considering the variations in rock properties and the hydraulic fracturing designs. Fracture heights and growth geometry were identified. No significant variations within the fracture heights were noticed among different plays. The workflow developed in this study enables us to predict stimulated reservoir volume in order to optimize the fracturing design which plays an important role in improving the recovery ratio of unconventional reservoirs.

How to cite: Gomaa, M., Alhilali, I., AlEid, A., Hamza, M., Allam, S., and Kaka, S.: The use of microseismic technology to optimize fracture connectivity in  unconventional reservoirs, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-977, 2022.

EGU22-2292 | Presentations | SM5.2 | Highlight

The effect of subsurface freezing-thawing in the SW Svalbard on the newly deglaciated areas 

Mariusz Majdański, Wojciech Dobiński, Artur Marciniak, Marzena Osuch, Tomasz Wawrzyniak, Bartosz Owoc, and Michał Glazer

The rapid climatic changes and their impact in the regions where unique environmental balance is not polluted by human existence are strongly visible. One of those places, exposed to Arctic amplification, is the newly deglaciated areas of Southern Spitsbergen. One of the most important scientific aspects is understanding their response to climate and environmental changes. To do that, an extensive geophysical approach is required integrating results from multiple imaging techniques. To derive spatial information from complex geomorphological terrain, joint interpretation of three non-intrusive geophysical methods were applied: Electrical Resistivity Tomography, Ground Penetrating Radar, and time-lapse Seismic Tomography. These were used to identify subsurface structures in the forefield of the retreating Hansbreen glacier in SW Spitsbergen, Svalbard. As a result, the authors distinguish three main zones, with different responses to the freezing-thawing effect: outwash plain, terminal moraine at the last glacial maximum, and glacial forefield proximal to the glacier front. The obtained data allowed for differentiation between geological and periglacial structures, and seasonally changing effects. The estimation of the impact of the freezing-thawing effect based on the VP velocity change reveals, that changes are deeper than previously believed reaching down to 30 metres of flat terrain and even deeper to 40 metres at the slope area with the strong subsurface flow. The study provides a unique snapshot of the current situation on the forefield of retreating Hansbreen concerning the current climate state.

This research was funded by National Science Centre, Poland (NCN) Grant UMO-2016/21/B/ST10/02509 and, Poland (NCN) Grant 2020/37/N/ST10/01486.

How to cite: Majdański, M., Dobiński, W., Marciniak, A., Osuch, M., Wawrzyniak, T., Owoc, B., and Glazer, M.: The effect of subsurface freezing-thawing in the SW Svalbard on the newly deglaciated areas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2292, 2022.

EGU22-2718 | Presentations | SM5.2

Quantitative analysis of seismic waves attenuation: numerical analysis and laboratory-scale experiments. 

Marine Deheuvels, Florian Faucher, and Daniel Brito

In this work, we recover physical properties of a material with a focus on the attenuation, using a laboratory-scale sample. We develop a method to accurately invert the attenuation models, illustrating with 3D simulations the seismic wave propagation in the frequency domain considering different rheological viscoelastic models.

First, we consider a simplified numerical case where we avoid wave reflections from boundaries. Our analysis allows to characterize the wave behavior and the attenuation properties of the medium. Here, we use a complex wavenumber analysis, to recover a complex-valued mechanical modulus that accounts for the viscoelastic behavior.

Secondly, we consider numerically an experimental configuration, with free-surface conditions on the sample boundaries, and measurements restricted to the faces of the sample. In this case, the free-surface boundaries lead to multiple reflections and wave conversions that must be taken into account to analyze both the body waves and surface waves displacements to recover the representative viscoelastic properties. 

Finally, we carry out laboratory-scale experiments on various rock samples designed to find out their attenuation properties. For this purpose, we run an experimental setup using piezoelectric transmitters acting as a seismic source, and a laser-doppler vibrometer for non-contact time-domain measurements. Then, we have to recover the appropriate attenuation laws and their corresponding parameters, depending on the nature of samples. This eventually serves to build initial models to perform iterative reconstruction with Full Waveform Inversion.

How to cite: Deheuvels, M., Faucher, F., and Brito, D.: Quantitative analysis of seismic waves attenuation: numerical analysis and laboratory-scale experiments., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2718, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2718, 2022.

EGU22-4241 | Presentations | SM5.2

Interpolation of GPR profiles (in 3D datasets) through Fourier Interpolation. Application to the case study of Roman Villa of Horta da Torre (Fronteira, Portugal) 

Rui Jorge Oliveira, Bento Caldeira, Teresa Teixidó, and José Fernando Borges

GPR data sometimes present subsampling problems that prevent an effective study about the existence of buried structures in an archaeological site. This is a frequent problem, related with the profile spacing used in the survey, when this is performed in parallel profiles to construct a 3D dataset. This difficulty can be lessened by decreasing the profile spacing, but that increases the survey time, or can be experimented in the data processing. INT-FFT algorithm is GPR data densification approach, complementary to the other standard operations, that allows to reconstruct missing data from the combined use of mathematical transforms and predictive filters. To calculate the missing signal, two requirements must be checked: (1) the data in the frequency domain must be limited in a range of values; and (2) must be able to be represented by a distribution of Fourier coefficients. Both conditions are verified in GPR data. Based on seismic trace interpolation, INT-FFT algorithm uses an open access routine (Suinterp, from Seismic Unix package) to interpolate the GPR profiles, that makes use of automatic event identification routines, through the calculation of spatial derivatives, to identify discontinuities in space from the detection very subtle changes in the signal, thus allowing for more efficient interpolation without artifacts or signal deterioration. The approach was successfully tested using GPR datasets from the archaeological site of Roman Villa of Horta da Torre (Fronteira, Portugal). The results show that there was an increase of the geometric sharpness of the GPR planimetry and has not produced any numerical artefacts. The tests performed to apply the methodology to GPR-3D data allowed to assess the interpolation efficiency, the level of recovery of missing data and the level of information lost when one chooses to increase the distance between profiles in the acquisition stage of the data.

 

Acknowledgment: The work was supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) project UIDB/04683/2020 - ICT (Institute of Earth Sciences) and by the INTERREG 2014-2020 Program, through the "Innovación abierta e inteligente en la EUROACE" Project, with the reference 0049_INNOACE_4_E.

How to cite: Oliveira, R. J., Caldeira, B., Teixidó, T., and Borges, J. F.: Interpolation of GPR profiles (in 3D datasets) through Fourier Interpolation. Application to the case study of Roman Villa of Horta da Torre (Fronteira, Portugal), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4241, 2022.

EGU22-5554 | Presentations | SM5.2 | Highlight

Application of electrical and electromagnetic methods to delineate changes in salt content of soda lakes 

Anna Hettegger, Lukas Aigner, Marco Antonio Armas, Clemens Moser, Arno Cimadom, and Adrián Flores-Orozco

The main objective of this study is to understand salt dynamics in the soda lakes of the Austrian National Park Neusiedlersee Seewinkel and the influence of climate change in these dynamics. To achieve this, we investigated the application of electrical and electromagnetical methods to quantify spatial and temporal variations in the salt and water content. Built on the link between electrical conductivity and salt content, we mainly present results obtained with low induction number electromagnetic (EMI). EMI data were collected with the CMD Explorer and CMD Mini Explorer (from GF Instruments). Our investigations present, on the one hand, mapping of four lakes, each related to a different degree of degradation, with the aim of understanding the general patterns of electrical conductivity and their link to vegetation and surface cover. On the other hand, we conducted measurements at different time-lapses to monitor changes in the electrical conductivity along three profiles. The monitoring datasets combined EMI and time-domain induced polarization (TDIP) imaging and were repeated every two weeks between April and October 2021 near the Wörthenlacken. Monitoring measurements were conducted with both horizontal and vertical coplanar configurations with 3 separate receiver coils, for a total of 12 measurements for each point with a maximal nominal depth up to 6.7 m. Mapping measurements were collected only with horizontal configurations with both instruments, for six measurements with the same nominal depth of investigation. The initial analysis of the raw data demonstrates changes in the electrical conductivity related to changes in vegetation. In a second step, we inverted the EMI data using the open-source application EMagPy to resolve vertical variations of electrical conductivity along the monitoring profiles. Based on these results we evaluated the variation in electrical conductivity and potential salinity accompanying seasonal variations. Our interpretation incorporates non-geophysical data (temperature, water level, and precipitation) collected in observation wells near the study area. Moreover, we compared EMI monitoring results with those obtained from the inversion of TDIP datasets.

How to cite: Hettegger, A., Aigner, L., Armas, M. A., Moser, C., Cimadom, A., and Flores-Orozco, A.: Application of electrical and electromagnetic methods to delineate changes in salt content of soda lakes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5554, 2022.

Surface waves propagating from earthquakes, active sources or within the ambient noise wavefield are widely used to image Earth structure at various scales, from centimetres to hundreds of kilometres. The accuracy of surface-wave, phase-velocity measurements is essential for the accuracy of the Earth models they constrain. Here, we identify a finite-frequency phase shift in the phase travel time that causes systematic errors in time-domain, phase-velocity measurements. The phase shift arises from the approximation of monochromatic surface waves with narrow-band filtered surface waves. We derive an explicit formula of the finite-frequency phase shift and present a numerical method for its evaluation and for the correction of the measurements. Applications to high-frequency and long-period examples show that the phase shift is typically around π/60-π/16 for the common settings of ambient-noise imaging studies, which translates to 0.2-0.8% phase-velocity measurement errors. The finite-frequency phase shift depends on the (1) second derivative of the wavenumber with respect to frequency; (2) width of the narrow-band filter; (3) epicentral or interstation distance; (4) centre frequency of the filter. In conversion to phase velocity, the last two factors cancel out. Frequency-domain methods for phase-velocity measurements have the advantage of not producing the finite-frequency phase shift. Both time- and frequency-domain measurements, however, can be impacted by a break-down of the far-field approximation (near-field phase shift), which our calculations also show. Our method offers an effective means of improving the accuracy of the widely used time-domain, phase-velocity measurements via the evaluation of and corrections for the finite-frequency phase shift.

How to cite: Xu, Y., Lebedev, S., and Meier, T.: Improving the accuracy of time-domain surface-wave measurements: evaluation and correction of the finite-frequency phase shift, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5753, 2022.

EGU22-5788 | Presentations | SM5.2 | Highlight

Seeing inside flood embankments: combining electrical and seismic imaging. 

Adrian White, Jonathan Chambers, Paul Wilkinson, James Wookey, J. Michael Kendall, Ben Dashwood, James Whiteley, James Boyd, Arnaud Watlet, Dave Morgan, John Ball, and Andrew Binley

Flood embankments (levees or dykes) are used worldwide to protect homes, industry and farmland from flooding caused by extreme weather events and tidal surges. Their role is becoming increasingly important for two key reasons: climate change is causing larger and more frequent floods, and the number of people living on floodplains is increasing globally. Both these factors necessitate that flood defences are well maintained to minimise failure during flood events, and reduce disruption, damage, and even loss of life.

 

There are more than 10,000 km of flood embankments in UK alone, so condition monitoring must be rapid. Current monitoring relies on qualitative walkover surveys every 6-12 months, but this can only detect the surface features that form in response to subsurface processes or characteristics. If we could detect subsurface properties and deterioration features directly it would enable us to identify areas at risk significantly earlier, minimising both risk and mitigation costs. Two complementary geophysical methods stand out: Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and Multi Channel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW). These are sensitive to different hydro-mechanical properties of the materials that make up flood embankments and their foundations. ERT is sensitive to moisture content, clay content and porosity, whereas MASW is sensitive to elastic properties controlled by material strength, density, porosity and saturation.

 

In this work we combine co-located ERT and MASW surveys with time-lapse airborne lidar on three contrasting embankments on the River Thames, River South Tyne, and the Humber Estuary. Each site was selected based on known anomalies or the availability of existing geotechnical information to ground truth the geophysical measurements. The three embankments represent a range of different soil types, ages and varying foundation materials, making an ideal suite of targets to test the different geophysical methods.

 

In total c. 1 km of embankment was surveyed. Preliminary analysis shows good spatial agreement between units imaged by the ERT and those identified in the borehole data for each site. Areas of greatest settlement identified using time-lapse lidar also correlate with low resistivity anomalies indicating areas of soft clay and peat. Further data analysis will incorporate the MASW results and use clustering to quantitatively divide the subsurface into units with similar electrical and seismic properties. Geotechnical properties will then be attributed to each of the clusters, allowing more accurate fragility analysis of the embankment during flood conditions to be conducted.

How to cite: White, A., Chambers, J., Wilkinson, P., Wookey, J., Kendall, J. M., Dashwood, B., Whiteley, J., Boyd, J., Watlet, A., Morgan, D., Ball, J., and Binley, A.: Seeing inside flood embankments: combining electrical and seismic imaging., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5788, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5788, 2022.

EGU22-5953 | Presentations | SM5.2

Coherence-based GPR diffraction imaging and inversion 

Alexander Bauer, Benjamin Schwarz, and Dirk Gajewski

In both seismic and electromagnetic imaging the diffracted wavefield has gained importance in recent years. While seismic data is often acquired for a large range of different source-receiver offsets, ground-penetrating radar (GPR) acquisitions are mostly (near-) zero-offset. This characteristic inhibits the use of reflected waves for the estimation of depth velocities, which in turn increases the importance of a reliable imaging and characterization of the diffracted wavefield. In this study, we adapt a coherence-based workflow originally designed for seismic wavefields to ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data, which often exhibit similar wave propagation phenomena. The first step of the proposed workflow is the coherence-based imaging of the often predominant reflected wavefield, which in the second step is adaptively subtracted from the original data, resulting in an approximation of the diffracted wavefield. In the third step, we characterize the previously revealed diffracted wavefield by means of wavefront attributes, namely slopes and curvatures. In the fourth and final step, these wavefront attributes can be used for the estimation of depth velocities by means of wavefront tomography, an inversion scheme that provides both the localization of scatterers and a smooth velocity model of the subsurface. We demonstrate the wide applicability of the suggested workflow on two GPR field data examples provided by the USGS – one recorded in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy on the shores of Long Beach Island, New Jersey, the other capturing the internal structure of Wolverine Glacier, Alaska.

How to cite: Bauer, A., Schwarz, B., and Gajewski, D.: Coherence-based GPR diffraction imaging and inversion, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5953, 2022.

EGU22-6031 | Presentations | SM5.2

Multi-seismic imaging: Development of geological and geophysical models of the subsurface in the Iberian Pyrite Belt (SW-Iberia) 

Ramon Carbonell, Handoyo Handoyo, Yesenia Martinez, David Marti, Juan Alcalde, Mario Ruiz, puy Ayarza, and Fernando Tornos

Control and natural source seismic reflection records were acquired in the early fall in 2018 in the Sotiel-Elvira mining prospect, as part of the SIT4ME project (funded by EIT RawMaterials). Over 700 seismic digital instruments were deployed in a pseudo-3D grid to register these seismic signals in order to image and characterize the subsurface of the study area. The 2- and 3-component instruments used recorded wide azimuth and relatively long offset data. A 32 Tn Vibroseis truck was used in 900 vibration points to complete the controlled source component of the experiment. The array of receivers (deployed within a grid of 10x10m) recorded P- and S- waves and allowed to develop seismic velocity models derived from first arrival travel time tomography and multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW). Results are further constrained by density measurements of rock samples and surface geology. The integrated information places structural constrains in the subsurface and allows us to depict areas where higher than average P and S wave velocities, characteristic of massive sulphides, might point out to the existence of new or better delimited deposits within the Iberian Pyrite Belt (SW- Iberia). The area is under assessment for potential future exploitation. This experiment further demonstrates the potential of non-invasive and relatively inexpensive seismic techniques to address high-resolution imaging of mineralized areas.

How to cite: Carbonell, R., Handoyo, H., Martinez, Y., Marti, D., Alcalde, J., Ruiz, M., Ayarza, P., and Tornos, F.: Multi-seismic imaging: Development of geological and geophysical models of the subsurface in the Iberian Pyrite Belt (SW-Iberia), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6031, 2022.

EGU22-6475 | Presentations | SM5.2

Inversion of geoelectrical data constrained by CWT analysis 

Dora Francesca Barbolla, Maurizio Fedi, and Sergio Negri

We introduce a new method for the inversion of DC resistivity data. The method is based on constructing constraints based on the analysis of the Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) of the measured potential differences. We analyze the dipole-dipole geoelectric data through the wavelets belonging to the Poisson kernel semigroup and show that the CWT analysis of the measured electric potential differences is able to identify the main parameters of the buried sources such as depth, position and extent. Such source parameters are estimated with no need to know the resistivity contrast between the sources and the background. In general, the depth and the lateral thickness of the sources are estimated with a good accuracy, thanks to a diagram relating the singular points estimations vs. the different values of the dipole separation factor n. We proved the method by application to synthetic data and real data acquired under controlled conditions. Coupling CWT and inversion revealed to be really advantageous: after constraining the inverse problem with the a priori information from our CWT analysis, we obtained an inverse resistivity model well consistent with the known source.

How to cite: Barbolla, D. F., Fedi, M., and Negri, S.: Inversion of geoelectrical data constrained by CWT analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6475, 2022.

EGU22-6851 | Presentations | SM5.2 | Highlight

Detecting infiltration pathways by means of multi-method geophysical interpretation: an urban case study 

Jakob Gallistl, Georg Bano, and Ingrid Schlögel

Engineering-geophysical tasks in urban environments pose significant challenges for both the collection and interpretation of geophysical data. Typical problems that arise consist of background noise affecting seismic methods (i.e., moving cars or pedestrians), electromagnetic fields due to power lines and other infrastructure distorting electrical and electromagnetic methods and even traffic itself, requiring a thorough planning of fieldwork in order to minimize interruptions. To mitigate such limitations, commonly a combination of several geophysical methods is applied to counterbalance the caused distortions by a careful analysis of the data and combined modelling of the available information. Following this notion, we present a case study conducted in an urban setting in the first district of Vienna, a busy place in terms of both traffic and number of pedestrians. The objective was to delineate possible infiltration pathways of surface water or shallow subsurface water, infiltrating into an ancient cellar complex with a delay of two days after rainfall. The geophysical imaging included seismic refraction (RST) and multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW), complex conductivity imaging (CCI) and ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measurements to characterize the subsurface architecture below the street (i.e., above the cellar) and CCI and GPR from within the cellar along the outer wall (i.e., below the street). Based on a combined analysis of the datasets from the street and the cellar itself, and incorporating 3D information from LiDAR within the cellar, we propose a model of infiltration pathways, as well as zones in the cellar wall possibly already strongly weakened by continuous high soil moisture.

 

 

How to cite: Gallistl, J., Bano, G., and Schlögel, I.: Detecting infiltration pathways by means of multi-method geophysical interpretation: an urban case study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6851, 2022.

The sub-Cambrian peneplain is a well-known geological phenomenon in Scandinavia and it is found in sub-aerial outcrops in Finland, Sweden, and Norway. It is suggested that the peneplain formed within the Baltic Sea region in Cryogenian and Ediacaran / early Cambrian, when Baltica, a part of Rodinia at most of that time, experienced a tectonic stability, strong sheet-wash weathering and glaciations. While the peneplain outcrops at the surface in the Baltic Shield region, the remaining part of this peneplain is buried under the Phanerozoic sediments that comprise the Baltic Basin. This buried part of sub-Cambrian peneplain is known to have several inselbergs that occur as isolated ones or as sparse groups of inselbergs. From the results of interpretation of 2D and 3D onshore seismic data newly acquired in Western Lithuania, the continuation of sub-Cambrian peneplain was identified in Western Lithuania, a large array of inselbergs was mapped to the detail that the 3D seismic can permit, and the change in paleo-topography character of the Precambrian basement from flat to hilly and rough, was observed. The flat western side of our study area is interpreted as a continuation of the sub-Cambrian peneplain, which outcrops sub-aerially in Scandinavia while to the southeast it is buried under the strata of Baltic Basin. The southeastern part of our study area has many closely spaced hill-like features of various size, it is of considerable extent (at least 30 km) and does not comply with the peneplain’s definition on a local scale. It is interpreted as a part of large array of inselbergs. Though some of the largest palaeo-topography features in the study area were documented before, only the detailed mapping revealed that in Western Lithuania there is a large and dense array of inselbergs. This array of inselbergs is exceptional because it is the largest and densest of all known clusters of inselbergs in the Baltic Basin.

How to cite: Radzevicius, S., Grendaitė, M., and Michelevičius, D.: Large array of inselbergs and continuation of sub-Cambrian peneplain in the Baltic Basin based on interpretation of seismic data, Western Lithuania, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7080, 2022.

EGU22-7503 | Presentations | SM5.2

k-Means Clustering of geophysical tomographic data for landfill characterization 

Ester Piegari, Giorgio De Donno, and Valeria Paoletti

The detection and imaging of landfills is a challenging task for geophysical methods because major pitfalls may arise, in such complex areas, from the speculative interpretation of geophysical anomalies as geological or antrophic features. In fact, when we face a multi-layered scenario, with numerous resistive to conductive transitions (that is the case of landfills), the actual shape and position of the anomalies (e.g. due to leachate accumulation) can be biased. The use of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) in combination with the induced-polarization (IP) method, can help in this sense, even though may be not sufficient to completely remove ambiguities in interpretation of inverted models.

In this work, we present an application of an unsupervised machine learning k-means algorithm to ERT and IP data acquired in two urban waste disposal sites. The aim of the cluster analysis is to reduce the ambiguity on geophysical model interpretation and to improve the accuracy on detection of anomalous zones related to leachate accumulation. Experimental 2D field data were firstly inverted separately for resistivity and chargeability, using a Gauss-Newton algorithm. Then, joint 2D sections were obtained using k-means clustering of electrical resistivity, chargeability and normalized chargeability (chargeability divided by the resistivity) data. The retrieved model sections provide a quantitative integration of distinct geophysical data, which can offer new perspectives for the characterization of leachate distribution in landfills.

How to cite: Piegari, E., De Donno, G., and Paoletti, V.: k-Means Clustering of geophysical tomographic data for landfill characterization, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7503, 2022.

EGU22-7703 | Presentations | SM5.2

Quantitative comparison of seismoelectric laboratory data with numerical modelling based on electrokinetic theory 

Victor Martins Gomes, Daniel Brito, Stephane Garambois, Clarisse Bordes, and Helene Barucq

When a seismic wave propagates in a wet porous medium, the transient movement of ions inside the pores will give rise to an electromagnetic (EM) wavefield that accompanies the seismic field. This coseismic field, due to electrokinetic phenomena, carries valuable information about the fluid content and the petrophysical properties. Additionally, when the seismic disturbance reaches an interface, where either the petrophysical, the fluid, or both properties change, another EM wave will be generated, due to the electric charge imbalance across the interface. This second wave propagates independently and carries information about the discontinuity where it was generated. While the first contains mainly information about the physical properties around the receivers, the second is a noteworthy alternative to near surface exploration since it can be detected away from the interface generating it. Moreover, it can detect layers thinner than what the seismic resolution allows, being specially sensitive to fluid changes. Seeking to extend the understanding of seismoelectric phenomena we developed a experimental setup able to detect both seismo-EM effects. To record seismic displacement we use a laser vibrometer and for the EM signals we measure (approximate) absolute potentials using stainless steel electrodes. We study two cases, the first is a saturated homogeneous sand, and the second includes a thin sandstone layer buried inside the sand. The experimental dataset confirms that measuring absolute potentials allows the interface-generated EM wave to be detected by receivers ten wavelengths away from its origin, whereas it is hardly detected when using dipolar arrays (which are common practice) located near the layer. Using a benchmarked numerical code we quantitatively compare theoretical predictions and experimental data, finding that seismo-EM amplitudes agree within a factor of 2. While this result validates the seismoelectric theory that the code is based on, it also opens the path for future upscaling of the experimental workflow used in the comparison and show that absolute potentials should be systematically measured. Finally, our study supports that thin layers can be detected by this method.

How to cite: Martins Gomes, V., Brito, D., Garambois, S., Bordes, C., and Barucq, H.: Quantitative comparison of seismoelectric laboratory data with numerical modelling based on electrokinetic theory, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7703, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7703, 2022.

EGU22-8695 | Presentations | SM5.2

Seismic Velocity Contrast Along the Longitudinal Valley Fault System, Taiwan, from Analysis of Fault Zone Head Waves and Direct P Arrivals 

Tzu-Chi Lin, Gregor Hillers, Shiann-Jong Lee, and Shu-Huei Hung

Fault zone head waves (FZHWs) generated by bimaterial interfaces are the first arriving seismic phases at near-fault stations on the slower side of the fault. Since FZHWs spend almost their entire path along the fault interface, imaging methods based on these phases can provide high-resolution information on fault structure at seismogenic depths. In Eastern Taiwan, many past catastrophic earthquakes highlight the need for an improved understanding of fault characteristics and mechanical properties in this tectonically active environment. Here we use FZHWs to examine the northern segment of the Longitudinal Valley (LV) fault system, a suture zone between the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea plate. We focus on 44 stations within a 70 km by 28 km area located along the northern segment of the LV fault system and ~8800 small-to-moderate earthquake seismograms recorded between 2012 and 2018 by those stations. We apply a set of algorithms developed by Ross and Ben-Zion to automatically detect and pick direct P waves, S waves and potential head waves contained in the seismograms. We augment the detection using finite-difference simulations to study the effect of varying source mechanisms on the first motion polarity characteristics of the P wave and FZHW. The results indicate that head waves will be generated not only by a clean strike-slip fault but by a wider range of focal mechanisms. We discuss 414 robustly detected head waves excited by 204 events that are located within a thin volume along the west-dipping Central Range fault, which now suggests—for the first time—the existence of a consistent velocity contrast across that fault segment. We apply particle motion, polarization, and moveout analyses to confirm the robustness of our FZHW phase picks obtained with the automatic method. Most particle motion and polarization results show that the azimuths calculated from windows containing direct P waves do not consistently point to the epicentres. This variability in horizontal particle motion is likely associated with the complex structure beneath the receivers and changes in topography. To the first order, the moveout pattern of the P wave to FZHW time difference is constant. This indicates a shallow bimaterial interface along the fault that affects the wavefield near or below the stations. We fit the moveout and constant arrivals with two models to the differential P and head wave arrival times to explore possible local variations of the generally constant trend. The Akaike Information Criterion applied to the constant and the sloping moveout pattern suggests spatially complex significant results that together with the depth distribution of the involved events indicate a deeper-reaching bimaterial interface. For these configurations, the obtained average velocity contrast ranges from 0.75 to ~3 per cent.

How to cite: Lin, T.-C., Hillers, G., Lee, S.-J., and Hung, S.-H.: Seismic Velocity Contrast Along the Longitudinal Valley Fault System, Taiwan, from Analysis of Fault Zone Head Waves and Direct P Arrivals, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8695, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8695, 2022.

EGU22-8876 | Presentations | SM5.2 | Highlight

Towards structure-based joint geological-geophysical inversion for improved characterization of geothermal reservoirs 

Andrea Balza Morales, Hansruedi Maurer, Florian Wellmann, and Florian M. Wagner

Proper characterization of geologic structures that host geothermal systems is crucial for the efficiency and safety of their energy production. This includes estimating layer boundaries, complex geologic features, and lithology through means of inversion and its regularization. However, existing advanced regularization techniques (e.g., geostatistical regularization, minimum-gradient support, etc.) fail to capture the complexity of 3D geological models including fault networks, fault–surface interactions, unconformities, and dome structures. Förderer et al (2021) propose a solution by means of structure-based inversion, which implements implicit geological modeling and low-dimensional parametrization to produce sharp subsurface interfaces in 2D. This work aims to extend their approach to image realistic and complex geometries in 3D. We continue with the example of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and synthetic data; however, this approach is aimed towards independent and joint inversion of geophysical methods that are commonly used in geothermal exploration such as magnetotellurics, gravity, and seismic techniques.

The 3D geological model is created using GemPy, an open-source Python library, which constructs a structural geological model from interface points and orientations using an implicit approach based on co-kriging (de la Varga et al., 2019). Subsequently, the 3D model is discretized, and physical parameters are assigned using minimal pilot points that are then interpolated. We use pyGIMLi (Rücker et al., 2017), another open-source multi-method library for geophysical modelling and inversion, to perform a structure-based inversion, where we include the interface points in the primary model vector of the inversion to update these points iteratively to estimate a geological model in agreement with the geophysical observations.

In this work, special focus is placed on the sensitivity of each model parameter. To maintain low parametrization and account for the increase in computational power, the cumulative sensitivity is calculated and tested under criteria to optimize the model updates. This is relevant for geometries where the interface and pilot points are more influential in one dimension than others. The workflow has also been adapted to include more complex structures that can be defined in 3D, especially those that reflect geothermal systems. This work is part of the Innovative Training Network EASYGO (www.easygo-itn.eu), which aims to improve the efficiency and safety of geothermal operations but can be readily used in other applications.

 

References:

Förderer, A., Wellmann, F., and Wagner, F.: Geoelectrical imaging of subsurface discontinuities and heterogeneities using low-dimensional parameterizations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10012, 2021.

de la Varga, M., Schaaf, A., and Wellmann, F., 2019. GemPy 1.0: open-source stochastic geological modeling and inversion, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1–32, doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1-2019.

Rücker, C., Günther, T., Wagner, F.M., 2017. pyGIMLi: An open-source library for modelling and inversion in geophysics, Computers and Geosciences, 109, 106-123, doi: 10.1016/j.cageo.2017.07.011.

 

How to cite: Balza Morales, A., Maurer, H., Wellmann, F., and Wagner, F. M.: Towards structure-based joint geological-geophysical inversion for improved characterization of geothermal reservoirs, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8876, 2022.

EGU22-9493 | Presentations | SM5.2

Imaging of hydraulic conductivity from seismic and electrical data in a joint inversion framework 

Matthias Steiner, Lovrenc Pavlin, Timea Katona, Florian M. Wagner, Nathalie Roser, Peter Strauss, Günter Blöschl, and Adrian Flores Orozco

The hydraulic conductivity (K) is a relevant parameter in soil sciences as it is critical, e.g., for hydrological modeling or the characterization of groundwater flow and atmosphere-soil interactions. Field investigations allow for the direct assessment of K, yet the number and distribution of the sampling points limit the spatial resolution. To assess the spatial variability of K at the field scale, pedotransfer functions (PTFs) have been developed, which estimate K from soil parameters such as soil texture or bulk density. On the other hand, geophysical methods have also revealed their potential to quantify K in laboratory investigations, yet investigations at the field scale are still rare. In this study, we investigate the estimation of K through the simultaneous inversion of seismic and electrical data in an imaging framework. We use an open-source joint inversion framework, and adapt the underlying petrophysical model to take into account the (electrical) surface conductivity during parameter estimation. In particular, we invert resistivity data collected at a low and a high frequency, considering that the associated difference accounts for the (electrical) surface conductivity based on the frequency dependence of the observed electrical response. Accordingly, our joint inversion scheme solves, among other parameters, for water content, cation exchange capacity, polarization and porosity, which we use to quantify K through different models developed from laboratory investigations. Moreover, we investigate the possibility to enhance the quantification of K by adapting the joint inversion scheme to solve directly for the parameters required by the employed models. We illustrate our approach based on data collected at the Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL), a thoroughly investigated and monitored catchment located in Petzenkirchen (Lower Austria). We use available information about soil properties to calibrate our joint inversion scheme and evaluate the resolved K models based on K values obtained through direct investigations or the use of PTFs, respectively. Our approach contributes to the field-scale estimation of process-relevant subsurface properties at high spatial resolution by means of non-invasive geophysical imaging techniques – a key objective of the hydrogeophysical discipline.

How to cite: Steiner, M., Pavlin, L., Katona, T., Wagner, F. M., Roser, N., Strauss, P., Blöschl, G., and Flores Orozco, A.: Imaging of hydraulic conductivity from seismic and electrical data in a joint inversion framework, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9493, 2022.

EGU22-9632 | Presentations | SM5.2

Estimating the effect of maize crops on time-lapse horizontal crosshole GPR data 

Lena Lärm, Felix Bauer, Jan van der Kruk, Jan Vanderborght, Harry Vereecken, Andrea Schnepf, and Anja Klotzsche

Investigating soil, roots and their interaction is important to optimize agricultural practices like irrigation and fertilization and therefore increase the sustainability and productivity of crop production. In this study, we are combining two methods to examine non-invasively, characterize and monitor the soil-root zone throughout crop growing seasons: crosshole ground penetrating radar (GPR) and root-images within horizontal mini-rhizotrons. Over three maize crop growing seasons, we acquired in-situ time-lapse crosshole ground penetrating radar data and time-lapse root images, at two mini-rhizotron facilities in Selhausen, Germany. These facilities allow to horizontally measure data at six different depths, ranging between 0.1 m - 1.2 m and below three different plots with varying agricultural treatments, such as irrigation, sowing density, sowing date and cultivars. The GPR measurements result in the dielectric permittivity slices by applying standard ray-based analysis to zero-offset measurements along a pair of rhizotubes. Such horizontal permittivity slices can be linked to soil water content using petro‑physical relationships. Additionally, the root images provide a root fraction per image, which is derived by using a workflow combining state-of-the-art software tools, deep neural networks and automated feature extraction. The dielectric permittivity slices suggest a permittivity variation along the horizontal and vertical axes, depending on atmospheric conditions, soil properties, and root architecture. To quantify the influence of the roots on the spatial and temporal distribution of dielectric permittivity, we used statistical methods to reduce the impacting factors like soil heterogeneity, tube deviations and changing atmospheric conditions, which results in the spatial and temporal variability. For verification these permittivity variabilities are compared to the root fraction values. In general, using the spatial and temporal permittivity variations, we can detect the presence of roots and additionally recognize a varying influence of the roots over the duration of the crop growing season. Using these first results, we demonstrate that GPR can be applied to improve the characterization of the root-soil system related to maize plants. This could be the first step towards developing proxies e.g. for irrigation and fertilization applications using this non-invasive method.

How to cite: Lärm, L., Bauer, F., van der Kruk, J., Vanderborght, J., Vereecken, H., Schnepf, A., and Klotzsche, A.: Estimating the effect of maize crops on time-lapse horizontal crosshole GPR data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9632, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9632, 2022.

EGU22-9800 | Presentations | SM5.2 | Highlight

The Active Ochtendung Fault Zone Seismic Experiment – Shallow refraction tomography in the East Eifel Volcanic Field, Germany 

Lars Houpt, Michael Frietsch, Andreas Rietbrock, Trond Ryberg, Christian Haberland, Joachim Ritter, Bernd Schmidt, Klaus Reicherter, and Thomas Hertweck

Persistent microseismicity in the East Eifel Volcanic Field occurs along the Ochtendung Fault Zone (OFZ) just SE of Laacher See Volcano. In addition, deep-low-frequency earthquakes close by are a strong indication for active magmatic processes. No surface expression is known for the OFZ, therefore an active seismic study was conducted in the summer 2021 aiming to detect the near-surface structure of the fault.

The survey follows a line nearly perpendicular to the assumed fault orientation. The total length of the survey is 4,500 m with 5 m geophone distance and a maximum offset of 1000 m. Additional to these vertical component geophones, 3-component sensors were deployed at several sites along the profile in order to record far offsets. A drop-weight served as a seismic source.

1,022 shots lead to a total of more than 225,000 channels with maximum offsets of up to 1km, if including the 3-component sensors even up to 5km. Standard QC procedures and the stacking of the single shots at each shot point was done. The data set comprises 177 shot gathers with up to 221 receivers active at the same time. On these data the first onset P-wave arrivals were determined resulting in more than 35000 picks.

The refraction tomography uses an innovative inversion technique harnessing the power of a transdimensional, hierachical Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) algorithm without the need of a priori assumptions. The number of Voronoi cells describing the Earth structure model and the level of data noise is automatically determined during the inversion process. The forward modelling is performed by a fast, finite-difference based eikonal solver. Starting several hundred McMC-chains across multiple CPU-cores leads to the parallelism needed for efficient sampling of the model space, thus computing of a refraction tomography 2-D Earth structure model including its uncertainty.

We achieve a good resolution in depth down to about 200 m throughout our model. The thickness of the tephra layer covering the Rhenish shield is increasing from SW (few meters) to NE (80 m) along the profile. Further studies are still needed to illuminate the shallow structure of the OFZ.

How to cite: Houpt, L., Frietsch, M., Rietbrock, A., Ryberg, T., Haberland, C., Ritter, J., Schmidt, B., Reicherter, K., and Hertweck, T.: The Active Ochtendung Fault Zone Seismic Experiment – Shallow refraction tomography in the East Eifel Volcanic Field, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9800, 2022.

EGU22-10210 | Presentations | SM5.2

Capabilities for Aquifer Monitoring of long-term MHVSR Observations in Campo de Dalías (Almería, SE Spain) 

Antonio García-Jerez, Helena Seivane, Manuel Navarro, and Luis Molina

Preceding the seismic modelling of Campo de Dalías sedimentary basin by single-station ambient noise measurements, research focused on the reliability of the methodology employed, namely the microtremor horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (MHVSR), is conducted. It is known that MHVSR may present some dependence on weather and site-specific conditions as topographic effects, anthropogenic activities or the variability in the microtremor source distribution. In this context, the stationarity of MHVSR curves with their fundamental peaks below 1 Hz is studied after the installation of three long-term stations in rural sites and another one for a week in the urban area of El Ejido town.

The robustness of the MHVSR methodology is often assured by looking into the stationarity of mainly two peak parameters: frequency and amplitude. In this study, two new parameters are tested: the peak-width and the trough frequency. We have up to two years of microtremor and weather data that helped to track the variability of wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and temperature, as well as sea tide and aquifer levels compared to the peak shape of MHVSR curves.

Most weather variables only show short or punctual correlations with MHVSR parameters, which is the case of wind gusts above 10 m/s that totally blurred the MHVSR peak-shape for periods of a few days in the more poorly isolated station. The wind-speed time series collected in Campo de Dalías show high correlations with the total microtremor energy in the frequency band of secondary microseisms (0.3 - 1 Hz) with a clear seasonal behaviour. However, the MHVSR peaks studied in that band are uncorrelated with them. Our results show that the piezometric level maintains a moderate to high correlation with MHVSR peak-variability during a time span of 9 months. Campo de Dalías hosts a system of karst aquifers, which constitutes the main water supply for this semi-arid region. Modelling the groundwater flow in that kind of aquifers is a challenging field of research and monitoring it by means of investigation wells has a high cost. The results observed in this study widen the possibilities of MHVSR for being an aquifer-monitoring tool on time scales as short as a few days.

How to cite: García-Jerez, A., Seivane, H., Navarro, M., and Molina, L.: Capabilities for Aquifer Monitoring of long-term MHVSR Observations in Campo de Dalías (Almería, SE Spain), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10210, 2022.

EGU22-10826 | Presentations | SM5.2

Comparative analyses on geophysical survey responses for various numerical models constructed based on field data 

Huieun Yu, Bitnarae Kim, Ahyun Cho, In Seok Joung, Juyeon Jeong, Hanna Jang, Soojin Jang, and Myung Jin Nam

For the detection of contaminated zones based on geophysical surveys, we make numerical experiments since it is not easy to make or maintain contaminated test-beds for field surveys. In the numerical experiments, we numerically simulate and analyze the responses of geophysical surveys including electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), induced polarization (IP) and ground penetrating radar (GPR), for numerical models, each of which was constructed based on the results of field geophysical survey obtained from contaminated site. ERT, which can image electrical resistivity of subsurface, is one of the most common geophysical tools, while IP survey can provide additional electrical information of the subsurface. Besides GPR can suggest the structure of geology.

For each model, whose geological structure was composed as similar to that of the corresponding field-survey site, we first numerically simulated corresponding field surveys performed in the site and compare with field data to verify the properness of the model. For the verified models we performed numerical simulation of geophysical surveys about various scenario of contaminations (e.g., oil pollution, leachate, heavy metal, etc.), and analyzed resulting responses in order to make strategies for the detection of contaminated zones bases on geophysical surveys. Further, we considered time-lapse geophysical surveys for changing contamination scenarios with respect to time. In the case of models including clay media, the responses of IP were remarkable useful in locating the clay media when compared ERT-only survey.

This work was supported by the Energy Efficiency & Resources of the Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP) granted financial resource from the Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy, Republic of Korea (No. 20194010201920) and Korea Ministry of Environment as "The SEM projects; 2018002440005"

How to cite: Yu, H., Kim, B., Cho, A., Joung, I. S., Jeong, J., Jang, H., Jang, S., and Nam, M. J.: Comparative analyses on geophysical survey responses for various numerical models constructed based on field data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10826, 2022.

EGU22-10854 | Presentations | SM5.2 | Highlight

Temporal variation estimates of apparent resistivities associated with occurrence of seismic activity around Bogotá - Colombia using MT records from the RSUNAL seismic network 

Juan Sebastián Gómez Camacho, Juan José Gómez Rodriguez, and Carlos Alberto Vargas Jiménez

This work allowed us to estimate the space-time variations of the apparent resistivity (AR) at the USME station of the Red Sismológica de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia (RSUNAL), located in the center of Colombia at the Eastern Cordillera, and correlate these changes with seismic activity within a radius of 500 km to the station.

This project used recorded time series of the natural earth’s electric and magnetic field, processed its data with a computational algorithm of our own (which follows the magnetotelluric (MT) method’s fundamentals), and yielded positive results for the 6.1 Mw earthquake of December 24th, 2019 in Mesetas (Meta - Colombia) with some anomalies registered 8 hours before the mainshock. Although there is just one abnormal behavior for 1 of 5 study cases, it is seen in a good way a possible relation between the magnitude of the event and the AR anomaly as an input to the study of seismic precursors.

How to cite: Gómez Camacho, J. S., Gómez Rodriguez, J. J., and Vargas Jiménez, C. A.: Temporal variation estimates of apparent resistivities associated with occurrence of seismic activity around Bogotá - Colombia using MT records from the RSUNAL seismic network, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10854, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10854, 2022.

EGU22-10857 | Presentations | SM5.2 | Highlight

Integrated Approach to Identify Variables for the Prediction of Metallic Content in a Slag Heap using Time-Domain ERT and SIP Laboratory Measurements 

Itzel Isunza Manrique, David Caterina, Marc Dumont, and Frederic Nguyen

There are two main drivers to integrate former metallurgical residues or mine waste into the circular economy through an efficient resource recovery. First, the economic driver, which considers land and resource recovery of high value elements such as critical raw materials. Secondly, the environmental and human health driver, as these types of residues might be a potential source of pollution. In both scenarios, there is a need to improve the characterization of past metallurgical sites and to locate and quantify materials of interest. To this aim, mostly geoelectric methods applied in the laboratory and/or in the field have been used and they are often complemented with geochemical or mineralogical studies. In this contribution, we present an approach that integrates a 3D Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and Induced Polarization (IP) acquisition in the field, lab measurements of ERT, IP and Spectral Induced Polarization (SIP) in several samples together with chemical analysis, to predict the metallic content in a slag heap from a former iron and steel factory located in Belgium. The samples were collected at locations targeting the observed geophysical anomalies. We first look for correlations between geophysical lab measurements and the chemical analysis to identify the variables which could potentially have a larger impact or control in the metallic content. Second, we use the geophysical lab measurements to improve the deterministic constrained inversion carried out for the 3D field data. Third, we use a supervised learning algorithm - Gaussian Process Classification (GPC)- to predict the metallic content of the slag heap from the 3D inverted resistivity/chargeability model. Overall, we found that variations in the chargeability are correlated with changes in iron, calcium and silicon content. Additionally, the GPC represents a suitable algorithm to integrate the uncertainty in the prediction results as well as the uncertainty that arises from the direct comparison of field and lab data. Finally, this methodology which integrates geophysical field data, targeted sampling, lab measurements and supervised learning can be applied in broader contexts where such data are available.

How to cite: Isunza Manrique, I., Caterina, D., Dumont, M., and Nguyen, F.: Integrated Approach to Identify Variables for the Prediction of Metallic Content in a Slag Heap using Time-Domain ERT and SIP Laboratory Measurements, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10857, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10857, 2022.

EGU22-10871 | Presentations | SM5.2 | Highlight

Numerical study of 2D & 3D ERT with sensitivity analysis for subsidence in the coal mining area 

Rupesh Rupesh, Prarabdh Tiwari, and Shashi Prakash Sharma

Subsurface cavities are mainly responsible for ground subsidence in and around coal mines. There is need to use an advanced high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) technique to detect anomalies and map subsurface precisely. The present study demonstrated the numerical evaluation of 2D and 3D-ERT for air-filled and water-filled cavities. Models simulated with reasonable resistivity values for voids and formations by considering bord and pillar mining environments in multilayer earth. Wenner, Wenner-Schlumberger, and Dipole-dipole arrays incorporated with and without a barrier to getting the best possible output. We used the Res2dinv and Res3dinv programs for data processing. 3D Dipole-dipole inverted geo-electrical section better showed the subsurface cavities signature than the results obtained from other applied arrays. The sensitivity section corresponding to used electrode configurations gives a more detailed picture of the subsurface for better interpretation. The 3D volume of the subsurface overcomes the limitations of 2D ERT to detect cavities within the coal seam.

How to cite: Rupesh, R., Tiwari, P., and Sharma, S. P.: Numerical study of 2D & 3D ERT with sensitivity analysis for subsidence in the coal mining area, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10871, 2022.

EGU22-10964 | Presentations | SM5.2

Numerical analysis for dispersion characteristic from time domain induced polarization based on laboratory measurement data of complex resistivity 

Juyeon Jeong, Bitnarae Kim, Desy Caesary, YoungSam Mun, Doukheee Won, and Myung Jin Nam

Induced polarization (IP) methods can be classified into time domain IP (TDIP), complex resistivity (CR), and Spectral IP (SIP) surveys based on measurement method. In field surveys, TDIP measurements are the most widely performed thanks to the easier and less time-consuming acquisition than SIP. In the meantime, SIP measurements are preferred over TDIP for the analysis on dispersion characteristics of CRs of cores in laboratory experiments based on Cole-Cole parameters. Theoretically, the dispersion characteristics should be common in SIP and TDIP measurements if the nature of used sources in both measurements is the same. However, in real situations, ranges of time and frequency are limited due to limitations of equipment resulting in dissimilarities between SIP and TDIP. Despite the dissimilarities, it is attempted to mutual interpretation between TDIP and SIP data sets in recent researches. We analyze spectral dispersions of CRs from laboratory measurements data of SIP to estimate SIP parameters based on the Cole-Cole model. Using the dispersion characteristics, numerical models with IP anomalies are constructed for numerical simulation of not only SIP but also TDIP surveys. Through inversion of resulting SIP and TDIP synthetic data, we estimate Cole-Cole parameters from inverted SIP anomalies and chargeability decay curves of the inverted anomalies from TDIP. Based on the numerical experiments, we make further numerical tests considering field scale mining and contamination surveys.

This work was supported by the Energy Efficiency & Resources of the Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP) granted financial resource from the Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy, Republic of Korea (No. 20194010201920) and Korea Ministry of Environment as "The SEM projects; 2018002440005"

 

How to cite: Jeong, J., Kim, B., Caesary, D., Mun, Y., Won, D., and Nam, M. J.: Numerical analysis for dispersion characteristic from time domain induced polarization based on laboratory measurement data of complex resistivity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10964, 2022.

EGU22-11612 | Presentations | SM5.2

Influence of the inner rock surface roughness on the SIP response – a numerical study 

Eugen Zibulski and Norbert Klitzsch
The electrical double layer (EDL) at the inner solid-water-interface controls the electrical polarization of saturated rocks without metallic constituents in the low frequency range. Consequently, spectral induced polarization (SIP) laboratory measurements show a strong correlation between polarization strength and inner surface area of rocks. So far published mechanistic SIP models consider this correlation based on grain or pore sizes but neglect the influence of the inner surface roughness. We study the influence of the inner surface roughness on the SIP response by simulating the frequency dependent complex conductivity of simple micro-scale rock models using Comsol Multiphysics®. Starting from smooth grain and pore models, we introduce surface roughness using a fractal approach and randomly generated surface structures.
We find that distinct surface roughness leads to additional polarization at higher frequencies compared to grains and pores of equal size with smooth surfaces. Additionally, the polarization peak of rough grains shifts to lower frequencies compared to smooth grains. These effects lead to an ambiguity in the interpretation of SIP spectra with respect to structural parameters (e.g., grain size or pore structure), e.g., a mixture of large and small grains could lead to the same SIP response as these large grains with rough surfaces. Overall, our simulation results show the same dependence of chargeability on inner surface area as laboratory measurements and thus the strong influence of inner surfaces roughness on the SIP response. Thus, quantitative interpretation of SIP measurements should account for the inner surface roughness of rocks.

How to cite: Zibulski, E. and Klitzsch, N.: Influence of the inner rock surface roughness on the SIP response – a numerical study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11612, 2022.

EGU22-12314 | Presentations | SM5.2

Using 3D full-waveform inversion to investigate bottom-simulating reflectors 

Laura Frahm, Richard Davy, Rebecca Bell, Joanna Morgan, Ryuta Arai, Nathan Bangs, Stuart Henrys, and Daniel Barker

We present velocity images across a bottom-simulating reflector (BSR) recovered using 3D high-resolution full-waveform inversion (FWI) and discuss its use as a tool for understanding the nature of the BSR.

FWI is a seismic imaging technique which generates highly resolved physical property models of the subsurface. FWI uses the full recorded waveform for inversion which leads to a superior resolution compared to other imaging methods, but also makes it computationally more expensive. Relative to 2D inversions, 3D FWI leads to image improvements due to an increase in azimuthal coverage and ability to map out-of-plane arrivals to the correct location, which is particularly important in a complex geological setting. Therefore, next to the advantage of a fully resolved 3D structure, the model will also be more accurate.

Caused by gas hydrate in an upper layer and/or free gas in a lower layer, a BSR indicates the base of the gas hydrate stability zone. This significant change of the physical properties in the upper few hundred meters of the marine sediment produces a distinct reflection, i.e. the BSR, that can be seen in the seismic image.

We are imaging and investigating a BSR at Puke Ridge, a thrust ridge on the accretionary wedge of the northern Hikurangi subduction margin, offshore the North Island of New Zealand. We are using seismic multichannel streamer data, belonging to the NZ3D dataset collected in 2018, to invert for the P-wave velocity. The resolved velocity model displays the geometry and the structure of a BSR characterised by a velocity increase followed by a sudden decrease and provides us with accurate velocities which we can use for rock physics modelling and interpretation.

How to cite: Frahm, L., Davy, R., Bell, R., Morgan, J., Arai, R., Bangs, N., Henrys, S., and Barker, D.: Using 3D full-waveform inversion to investigate bottom-simulating reflectors, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12314, 2022.

EGU22-12546 | Presentations | SM5.2 | Highlight

Using combined quantitative geophysical methods to delimit physical properties of low porosity permafrost bedrocks 

Maike Offer, Riccardo Scandroglio, Philipp Mamot, Markus Keuschnig, and Michael Krautblatter

Degradation of mountain permafrost poses an increasing hazard to the stability of high-alpine infrastructures, which are predominantly located in low porosity bedrocks. Considering the dramatic climate change-induced temperature increase and the recent tourism expansion in these regions, safe long-lasting constructions and maintenance of infrastructures at high altitudes requires a complete process understanding of these permafrost systems. 

Non-invasive, geophysical measurements such as Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and Seismic Refraction Tomography (SRT) are the state of the art today in permafrost research due to their capability to distinguish between frozen and unfrozen medium. Thanks to their complementary sensitive records, it is common to combine electrical and seismic data sets by using petrophysical relations. Several multimethod approaches were already successfully applied in ice-rich conditions, however quantitative studies in ice-poor bedrock characterized by different physical properties are rarely investigated.  

In this study, we present a quantitative multimethod approach for long-term monitoring of low porosity permafrost bedrock. ERT and SRT data sets were recorded between 2010 and 2021 at the Zugspitze crest (Germany, 2.885 m asl) and in the Hanna-Stollen at the Kitzsteinhorn (Austria, 3.029 m asl). Both locations are visited every day by thousands of tourists, present infrastructure founded in bedrock with porosity of 0.2 to 5.0 % and are affected by degrading permafrost, although showing different lithologies. A combined analysis of resistivities and p-wave velocities, supported by their laboratory temperature calibrations with water-saturated samples from the field, allowed us to quantitatively estimate site-specific permafrost changes. The preliminary results show a clear warming of the permafrost core and a thickening of the active layer, well in agreement with other long-term permafrost observation at the Zugspitze summit and at further alpine sites (e.g. Scandroglio et. al, 2021).

In summary, our quantitative multimethod analysis for ice-poor bedrock provides fundamental contributions for planning and maintenance of permafrost-founded infrastructure under the influence of climate change. In the future, we aim at developing a new benchmark approach for hazard potential assessment of high-alpine infrastructures with foundations and anchoring in thawing permafrost.

 

Scandroglio, R., Draebing, D., Offer, M., & Krautblatter, M. (2021). 4D quantification of alpine permafrost degradation in steep rock walls using a laboratory-calibrated electrical resistivity approach. Near Surface Geophysics, 19, 2:241-260, doi: 10.1002/nsg.12149.

How to cite: Offer, M., Scandroglio, R., Mamot, P., Keuschnig, M., and Krautblatter, M.: Using combined quantitative geophysical methods to delimit physical properties of low porosity permafrost bedrocks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12546, 2022.

EGU22-617 | Presentations | TS3.1

A Bayesian probabilistic approach to estimate the focal mechanism of micro-earthquakes occurring at the Irpinia fault system, southern Italy. 

Stefania Tarantino, Antonio Emolo, Guido Maria Adinolfi, Gaetano Festa, and Aldo Zollo

We developed a Bayesian technique to infer the double-couple, focal mechanism parameters (strike, dip and slip angles) of an earthquake source. The method uses 3 independent datasets: P-wave peak amplitude and polarity and S-to-P amplitude ratio wherever it is available.

The Bayesian technique works even in absence of one dataset and easily integrates any prior information about the region of study. The parameter space is explored thanks to an octree strategy. The method estimates the Posterior pdf, where the maximum likelihood parameter values (MAP model) both for the principal and auxiliary plane are chosen as the final fault mechanism solution. Furtherly, the uncertainties as the projections of the semi-axis of the 68% confidence ellipsoid centred on the MAP model are provided.

The joint use of the three datasets allows to determine a solution even in the case of a limited number of stations that have recorded the event, which is the case for example for small magnitude earthquakes (M<3).

We applied and tested the methodology to a microearthquake sequence (ML 0.4-3.0) occurred in the Irpinia region, South Italy, using an uninformative prior distribution for the parameters. In this area, the background seismicity occurs in a volume delimited by the faults activated during the 1980 Irpinia M 6.9 earthquake. This faults system is complex and composed of northwest–southeast striking normal faults along the Apennines chain. A network of 3-component accelerometers and velocimeters is currently monitoring the area (Irpinia Seismic NETwork).

We inferred the focal mechanism of the earthquakes of the sequence. Our results show fault mechanism solutions which are consistent with previous studies, well reflecting the regional stress field. The focus on micro-seismicity can reveal characteristics useful to highlight behaviours of larger scale seismicity.

How to cite: Tarantino, S., Emolo, A., Adinolfi, G. M., Festa, G., and Zollo, A.: A Bayesian probabilistic approach to estimate the focal mechanism of micro-earthquakes occurring at the Irpinia fault system, southern Italy., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-617, 2022.

EGU22-991 | Presentations | TS3.1

High-resolution reflection seismic imaging of fault systems in Metropolitan Seoul, South Korea 

Samuel Zappalá, Alireza Malehmir, Tae-Kyung Hong, Junhyung Lee, Bojan Brodic, Dongchan Chung, Christopher Juhlin, Byeongwoo Kim, Myrto Papadopoulou, Seongjun Park, Jeongin Lee, and Dongwoo Kil

The Korean peninsula is considered a stable intraplate setting with few large magnitude earthquakes and in terms of seismic risk, a low-risk region. However, the peninsula is crosscut by crustal-scale fault systems, some of which may be active or have a potential of reactivation. After the Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw 9.0, 2011) offshore Japan, subsequent larger magnitude seismic events were registered along some of the fault systems in the South Korean portion of the peninsula. Following these, seismic risk in the area has been given more attention with several initiatives to study the current state of the seismicity in the region and to better understand the geometry and role of these crustal-scale fault systems.

To provide information on the geometry of subsurface structures causing the seismic events, a number of locations were identified for high-resolution reflection seismic imaging. In November 2020, the first active-source seismic profiles in the region (P1 and P2) were acquired with a total length of approximately 14 km with the aim to better understand the correlation between one of the main faults, the Chugaryeong fault system, and the seismicity in the area. A novel data acquisition survey consisting of a 120-unit micro-electromechanical sensors (MEMS-based) seismic landstreamer and 290 wireless recorders was employed to allow both near-surface and deep imaging of structures. Profile P1, 5 km long, was acquired on the outskirt of Seoul and P2, 9 km long, was acquired in the central part of the city. Acquiring P2 was a significant challenge given that the Seoul metropolitan area is densely populated. Difficulty to obtain good geophone-ground coupling and anthropogenic noise severely degraded the data quality. Nonetheless, final seismic sections from both profiles show encouraging results, particularly along P1 where much deeper imaging was possible (up to 9 km depth). An integrated processing work flow was required to take advantage of both the landstreamer and wireless data and this proved to be instrumental for improved imaging and subsequent interpretation.

Along P1 a clear correlation between seismic event clusters and reflection intersections (at two depth intervals of 4.5-5 km and 8-9 km) is observed, suggesting that seismic triggering is coupled to the fault intersections at depth. P2 shows strong westerly-dipping reflections with similar characteristics to the ones seen along P1, but only visible from the near surface to around 1200 m depth. It was not possible to map these faults deeper along P2, probably due to the noise conditions, thus no correlation between fault intersections and seismicity could be made. The encouraging reflection seismic results from both profiles, motivated the acquisition of a much longer profile (P3, 40 km) crossing three major fault systems in 2021. It lies in between P1 and P2 and a similar acquisition strategy was used as before. Preliminary results are ready and these are currently being interpreted together with other seismological and geological information from the area.

How to cite: Zappalá, S., Malehmir, A., Hong, T.-K., Lee, J., Brodic, B., Chung, D., Juhlin, C., Kim, B., Papadopoulou, M., Park, S., Lee, J., and Kil, D.: High-resolution reflection seismic imaging of fault systems in Metropolitan Seoul, South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-991, 2022.

EGU22-1403 | Presentations | TS3.1

Seismic anisotropy structure of the northern Hikurangi margin, New Zealand, and its significance for subduction fault systems 

Ryuta Arai, Shuichi Kodaira, Stuart Henrys, Nathan Bangs, Koichiro Obana, Gou Fujie, Seiichi Miura, Daniel Barker, Dan Bassett, Rebecca Bell, Kimihiro Mochizuki, Richard Kellett, Valerie Stucker, and Bill Fry

The NZ3D OBS experiment performed in 2017-2018 in the northern Hikurangi margin off the east coast of North Island, New Zealand, provided the highest-resolution seismic refraction/wide‐angle reflection data with multi-azimuth ray coverage in subduction zones to date (Arai et al., 2020). The study area extending 60 km in the trench-normal direction and 14 km in the trench-parallel direction covers source regions of a variety of slow earthquake phenomena, such as shallow slow slip events and tectonic tremor (e.g., Wallace, 2020), and thus offers an ideal location to link our understanding of structural and hydrogeologic properties at subduction faults to slip behavior. We applied an anisotropic traveltime tomography analysis to this active-source dataset from 97 ocean bottom seismographs deployed with an average spacing of 2 km on four parallel lines and dense air gun shooting with a 25 m interval, and succeeded in quantitatively constraining the P-wave velocities (Vp) of the upper plate forearc and the subducting slab and their azimuthal anisotropy in three dimensions. The velocity models revealed some locations with significant Vp azimuthal anisotropy over 5 % near the splay faults in the low-velocity accretionary wedge and the deformation front. This finding suggests that the anisotropy is not ubiquitous and homogeneous within the upper plate, but more localized in the vicinity of active thrust faults. While the fast axes of Vp are mostly oriented in the trench-normal direction in the accretionary wedge, which is interpreted as results of preferentially oriented cracks in a compressional stress regime associated with the plate convergence, they are rotated to the trench-parallel direction on the seaward side of the trench and in the landward backstop. This regional variation is consistent with the results of shear-wave splitting analysis (Zal et al., 2020) and the directions of maximum horizontal stress inferred from the borehole breakouts at two IODP drilling sites (Wallace et al., 2019). The significant magnitudes of anisotropy may indicate that in addition to the crack orientation, clay-rich sedimentary sequences that stack and form coherent strata along the accretionary wedge also contribute to seismic anisotropy in the subduction margin.

 

How to cite: Arai, R., Kodaira, S., Henrys, S., Bangs, N., Obana, K., Fujie, G., Miura, S., Barker, D., Bassett, D., Bell, R., Mochizuki, K., Kellett, R., Stucker, V., and Fry, B.: Seismic anisotropy structure of the northern Hikurangi margin, New Zealand, and its significance for subduction fault systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1403, 2022.

EGU22-1926 | Presentations | TS3.1

Geological imaging of a crustal-scale seismogenic source in the continental crust (Bolfin Fault Zone, Atacama Fault System, Chile) 

Simone Masoch, Michele Fondriest, Rodrigo Gomila, Erik Jensen, Giulia Magnarini, Javier Espinosa, Karin Hofer, Tom Mitchell, José Cembrano, Giorgio Pennacchioni, and Giulio Di Toro

Fault zone architecture controls, for instance, the nucleation, propagation and arrest of individual seismic ruptures, the moment magnitude of the mainshocks and the evolution in space and time of foreshock and aftershock seismic sequences. Nevertheless, the architecture of crustal-scale seismogenic sources is still poorly known. Here, we examine the architecture of the >40-km-long, Mesozoic seismogenic Bolfin Fault Zone (BFZ) of the Atacama Fault System (Northern Chile). The exceptionally well-exposed BFZ cuts through plutonic rocks of the Coastal Cordillera and was seismically active at 5-7 km depth and ≤ 300 °C in a fluid-rich environment. The BFZ includes multiple fault core strands consisting of chlorite-rich cataclasites-ultracataclasites and pseudotachylytes, surrounded by chlorite-rich protobreccias to protocataclasites over a zone as wide as 75 m. These cataclastic units are associated with a damage zone, up to 150-m-thick, which comprises strongly altered and brecciated rock volumes, and with clusters of epidote-rich fault-vein networks located at the linkage of the BFZ with other faults. The architecture of the BFZ is the result of fault core widening by cyclic co-seismic frictional melting and post-to-inter-seismic fault healing due to hydrothermal (chlorite + epidote ± K-feldspar) mineral precipitation plus pervasive, possibly associated with mainshocks and aftershocks, damaging of the surrounding rocks. Additionally, we interpret the epidote-rich fault-vein networks as an exhumed seismic source of fluid-driven earthquake swarm-type sequences in agreement with seismological observations of presently active magmatic and hydrothermal regions. 

How to cite: Masoch, S., Fondriest, M., Gomila, R., Jensen, E., Magnarini, G., Espinosa, J., Hofer, K., Mitchell, T., Cembrano, J., Pennacchioni, G., and Di Toro, G.: Geological imaging of a crustal-scale seismogenic source in the continental crust (Bolfin Fault Zone, Atacama Fault System, Chile), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1926, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1926, 2022.

EGU22-2202 | Presentations | TS3.1

Unraveling the complexity of the Pollino (Italy) seismic gap fault system. 

Ferdinando Napolitano, Ortensia Amoroso, Mario La Rocca, Luca De Siena, Danilo Galluzzo, Vincenzo Convertito, Raffaella De Matteis, Toshiko Terakawa, and Paolo Capuano

The Mt. Pollino area has been affected by a 4-year long seismic sequence, occurred between 2010 and 2014 and characterized by low-to-moderate seismicity and two moderate events (ML 4.3 and ML 5.0). The sequence developed as a combination of swarm-like and aftershocks. The two main earthquakes occurred late in the sequence, with a slow-slip event starting 3-4 months before the largest earthquake and lasting for a year. Despite the lack of historical and instrumental recordings of strong earthquakes (M>6), paleo-seismological investigations confirm the occurrence in the last 10,000 years of at least two M 6.5-7 earthquakes on the Pollino and Castrovillari faults, located in the SE sector of the Mt. Pollino area. Thus, the area has been marked as the widest high seismic hazard gap in Italy.

In this study we present the most recent advancements in the comprehension of the main peculiarities of the last seismic sequence and of its space and time evolution.   

New local 3D P- and S-wave tomographic images offered a detailed picture of the main lithological units involved in the sequence and more reliable earthquake hypocenter locations. The inferred velocity contrasts have been compared with 2D scattering and absorption maps computed for the area, along with total direct wave attenuation. Clusters of events of similar waveforms (cross-correlation higher than 0.8) have been selected and located applying the master-slave relative location technique. New fault mechanisms have been computed. These mechanisms allowed modeling the local stress field and performing a Focal Mechanism Tomography. Its result was an evaluation of the excess of pore fluid pressure in the volume interested by the sequence. A 1D diffusivity analysis suggests a pore fluid pressure diffusion which, in addition to the Coulomb static stress transfer, can explain the delayed triggering of the two larger events.

This work has been supported by the CORE (“sCience and human factor for Resilient sociEty”) project, funded from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 - research and innovation program under grant agreement No 101021746 and by PRIN-MATISSE (20177EPPN2) project funded by Italian Ministry of Education and Research.

How to cite: Napolitano, F., Amoroso, O., La Rocca, M., De Siena, L., Galluzzo, D., Convertito, V., De Matteis, R., Terakawa, T., and Capuano, P.: Unraveling the complexity of the Pollino (Italy) seismic gap fault system., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2202, 2022.

EGU22-2940 | Presentations | TS3.1

Constraints on Fracture Distribution in Geothermal Fields Using Seismic Noise Beamforming 

Heather Kennedy, Amy Gilligan, and Katrin Löer

Faults and fractures are crucial parameters for geothermal systems as they provide secondary permeability allowing fluids to circulate and heat up in the subsurface. In this study, we use an ambient seismic noise technique referred to as the three-component (3C) beamforming to detect and monitor faults and fractures at a geothermal field in Mexico.

Three-component (3C) beamforming extracts the polarizations, azimuths, and phase velocities of coherent waves as a function of frequency, providing a detailed characterisation of the seismic wavefield. In this study, 3C beamforming of ambient seismic noise is used to determine surface wave velocities as a function of depth and propagation direction. Anisotropic velocities are assumed to relate to the presence of faults giving an indication of the maximum depth of permeability, a vital parameter for fluid circulation and heat flow throughout a geothermal field.

We perform 3C beamforming on ambient noise data collected at the Los Humeros Geothermal Field (LHGF) in Mexico. The LHGF is situated in a complicated geological area, being part of a volcanic complex with an active tectonic fault system. Although the LHGF has been exploited for geothermal resources for over three decades, the field has yet to be explored at depths greater than 3 km. Thus, it is currently unknown how deep faults and fractures permeate and the LHGF has yet to be exploited to its full capacity.

3C beamforming was used to determine if the complex surface fracture system permeates deeper than is currently known. Our results show that anisotropy of seismic velocities does not decline significantly with depth, suggesting that faults and fractures, and hence permeability, persist below 3 km. Moreover, estimates of fast and slow directions, with respect to surface wave velocities, indicate the orientation of faults with increasing depth. The North-East and North-West orientation of the fast direction corresponds to the orientation of the Arroyo Grande and Los Humeros faults respectively. Various other orientations of anisotropy align with other major faults within the LHGF at depths permeating to 6 km.

How to cite: Kennedy, H., Gilligan, A., and Löer, K.: Constraints on Fracture Distribution in Geothermal Fields Using Seismic Noise Beamforming, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2940, 2022.

EGU22-4047 | Presentations | TS3.1

Complex fault growth controls 3-D rift geometry: Insights from deep learning of seismic reflection data from the entire northern North Sea rift 

Thilo Wrona, Indranil Pan, Rebecca Bell, Christopher Jackson, Robert Gawthorpe, Haakon Fossen, and Sascha Brune

Understanding how normal faults grow is critical to an accurate assessment of seismic hazards, for successful exploration of natural (including low-carbon) resources and for safe subsurface carbon storage. Our current knowledge of fault growth is, in large parts, derived from seismic reflection data of continental rifts and margins. These seismic datasets do however suffer from limited data coverage and resolution. In addition, detailed fault mapping in increasingly large seismic reflection data requires a large amount of expertise and time from interpreters. Here we map faults across the entire northern North Sea rift using a combination of supervised deep learning and broadband 3-D seismic reflection data. This approach requires us to interpret <0.1% of the data for training and allows us to extract almost 8000 individual normal faults across a 161 km wide (E-W), 266 km long (N-S) and 20 km deep volume. We find that rift faults form incredibly complex networks revealing a previously-unrecognised variability in terms of fault length, density and strike. For instance, while we observe up to 75.9 km long faults extending from the Stord Basin and Bjørgvin Arch in the south into the Uer and Lomre Terrace to the north, most faults (>90%) are closely spaced (< 5 km) and relatively short (<10 km long). Moreover, these faults show a large range of strikes varying from NW-SE to NE-SW with two dominant fault strikes (NE-SW & NW-SE) almost perpendicular to each other. This observation is difficult to reconcile with previous studies on the extension directions during rifting of the northern North Sea. While previous studies suggest that pre-existing shear zones control faulting in the northern North Sea, we only observe faults aligning with the southern parts of the Lomre shear zone and the eastern parts of the Ninian shear zones, but none of the other eight previously mapped shear zones. Instead we think that these variations in fault strike could occur naturally through the complex evolution of fault networks. As such our innovative approach allows us to map faults across the entire northern North Sea revealing complex networks, which challenge many conventional views of fault growth during continental rifting.

How to cite: Wrona, T., Pan, I., Bell, R., Jackson, C., Gawthorpe, R., Fossen, H., and Brune, S.: Complex fault growth controls 3-D rift geometry: Insights from deep learning of seismic reflection data from the entire northern North Sea rift, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4047, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4047, 2022.

EGU22-4446 | Presentations | TS3.1

2-D Sn attenuation tomography of Arunachal Himalaya 

Sukanta Sarkar, Chandrani Singh, M. Ravi Kumar, Ashwani Kant Tiwari, Arun Kumar Dubey, and Arun Singh

In this study, we have presented the first high-resolution 2-D Sn attenuation tomography image of
Arunachal Himalaya to enlighten the lithospheric structure of the area. The region is one of the
active segments of the Himalaya and least understood because of the inaccessibility and difficult
working conditions. 37 regional earthquakes within the epicentral distance of 250 - 1650 km were
recorded by 29 broadband seismic stations operated in Arunachal Himalaya covering the majority
portions of the eastern Himalaya are used in the present study.
Sn is the uppermost mantle refracted phase travelled with a velocity of 4.3 - 4.7 km/s. It
is highly sensitive to the velocity gradient and attenuation in the uppermost mantle. We have
categorised the propagation efficiencies of Sn as efficient, inefficient and blocked based on a
visual inspection. The inefficient and blocked Sn phases are observed mainly in the western side
of our study region. Further, we have obtained the Sn Q tomography model to examine lateral
variations in attenuation characteristics, employing the Two Station Method (TSM) using 567 station
pairs as input data. The central Arunachal Himalaya exhibits a low Q value (≤ 50) whereas
Tawang and the western part of Arunachal Himalaya show a high value of Q ≤ 300. The obtained
results are well correlated with the tectonic fabric of the area.

How to cite: Sarkar, S., Singh, C., Kumar, M. R., Tiwari, A. K., Dubey, A. K., and Singh, A.: 2-D Sn attenuation tomography of Arunachal Himalaya, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4446, 2022.

EGU22-6589 | Presentations | TS3.1

Early results from 3D full-waveform inversion imaging of the slow slip region at the shallow Hikurangi Subduction Margin 

Richard Davy, Laura Frahm, Rebecca Bell, Joanna Morgan, Ryuta Arai, Nathan Bangs, Stuart Henrys, and Daniel Barker

The northern Hikurangi subduction margin hosts shallow slow-slip events (SSEs) and multiple historic tsunami earthquakes. The physical mechanisms and properties of the subduction interface which enable these dual modes of fault rupture remain largely enigmatic. In 2017-2018, the NZ3D seismic experiment was conducted offshore of Gisborne to image the structure of the overriding plate and subduction interface and infer the physical properties within the region of shallow SSEs. This experiment included a 3D seismic volume collected with four 6 km long streamers, ocean-bottom seismometers, and land stations. Early results from this project have demonstrated the successful application of 2D full-waveform inversion (FWI) to high frequencies along selected seismic inlines.

Here, we present the initial results of acoustic 3D FWI on the collected streamer data. Compared with 2D FWI, 3D FWI benefits from greater azimuthal coverage and the ability to relocate out-of-plane arrivals accurately but is restricted by increased calculation times and file sizes. Velocity models reveal a complex system of thrust faulting, horst and graben structures and bottom-simulating reflectors within the accretionary prism, as well as the decollement below the accretionary prism. Velocity inversions across the imaged thrust faults in the accretionary prism indicate the presence of fluids, potentially supporting the hypothesis that the subduction interface has elevated pore-fluid pressures, which are drained along some thrust faults. Velocity inversions are also observed across bottom-simulating reflectors, which indicate the presence of gas hydrates and free gas. Imaging the shallow decollement reveals an acoustically transparent region of low velocity contrasts in the inferred location of a subducted seamount.

How to cite: Davy, R., Frahm, L., Bell, R., Morgan, J., Arai, R., Bangs, N., Henrys, S., and Barker, D.: Early results from 3D full-waveform inversion imaging of the slow slip region at the shallow Hikurangi Subduction Margin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6589, 2022.

EGU22-7059 | Presentations | TS3.1

A Monte Carlo-Based Approach to Image Active 3D Fault Systems from Relocated Hypocenters 

Sandro Truttmann, Tobias Diehl, and Marco Herwegh

Despite the generally accepted concept that most earthquakes occur along pre-existing faults, the complex 3D geometries of seismically active fault systems at depth often remain unresolved. However, earthquake nucleation and migration processes are heavily influenced by the geometries and properties of such pre-existing structures, which limits our general understanding of earthquake nucleation and fault interactions.

Under the assumption that faults are reactivated at spatially and temporally different localities, previous studies have attempted to derive fault geometries from hypocenter locations, but were usually limited by the precision of relocation techniques. Enabled by the recent advances in hypocenter relocation techniques, we present a novel Monte Carlo-based method that uses relatively relocated hypocenters and their uncertainties to image geometries, stress states and kinematics of seismically active fault systems. The application of the developed Python toolbox on a natural earthquake sequence along the Rhone-Simplon fault zone in the northern Valais (Swiss Alps) reveals active strike-slip faults with a contractional stepover. Performed stress analyses indicate varying stress states along the fault system, which has direct implications for fault properties such as the reactivation potential or the fluid transmissivity. Overall, we document the migration of an earthquake swarm across a complex strike-slip fault system at an unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution.

Our toolbox can be applied to high-precision hypocenter catalogs of natural earthquake sequences or hydraulic stimulation experiments, which could help to improve our understanding of the role of pre-existing faults on earthquake nucleation and migration processes at various scales.

How to cite: Truttmann, S., Diehl, T., and Herwegh, M.: A Monte Carlo-Based Approach to Image Active 3D Fault Systems from Relocated Hypocenters, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7059, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7059, 2022.

EGU22-7998 | Presentations | TS3.1

3D Scattering and Absorption model during the 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence 

Simona Gabrielli, Aybige Akinci, Ferdinando Napolitano, Edoardo Del Pezzo, and Luca De Siena

The Amatrice-Visso-Norcia seismic sequence struck the Central Apennine (Italy) in 2016. Previous works brought to light how fluid movements likely triggered the sequence and reduced the stability of the normal fault network following the first earthquake (Amatrice, Mw6.0), and the subsequent events of Visso (Mw5.9) and Norcia (Mw6.5) mainshocks.
Seismic attenuation has the potential to visualize fluids presence and fractures in a seismic sequence and to image the effect of fluid migration in the events nucleation.

This work aims to provide 3D images of scattering and absorption at different frequency bands for two datasets, one before the sequence (March 2013-August 2016) and a second from the Amatrice-Visso-Norcia sequence (August 2016-January 2017). To measure scattering and absorption we used peak delay mapping and coda-attenuation tomography, respectively.
Previous 2D imaging of scattering and absorption showed a difference between the pre-sequence and the singular sequences at different frequency bands. Structural discontinuities and lithology control scattering losses at all frequencies, while a single high-absorption anomaly developed NNW-SSE across the seismogenic zone during the seismic sequence, probably related to the migration of deep-CO2 fluids from a deep source of trapped CO2 near the Amatrice earth.
The 3D preliminary results are in agreement with the 2D mapping, with high-scattering anomalies following the main structural and lithological elements of the Central Apennines (e.g. Monti Sibillini thrust), both during the pre-sequence and the sequence, also in depth. As for the 2D, the high absorption anomaly is widespread in the area before the Amatrice event, while it is mainly focused on the seismogenic zone during the sequence. This spatial expansion can be related to the deep migration of CO2-bearing fluids across the fault network also at seismogenic depths.

How to cite: Gabrielli, S., Akinci, A., Napolitano, F., Del Pezzo, E., and De Siena, L.: 3D Scattering and Absorption model during the 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7998, 2022.

Ongoing under-thrusting between Indian and Eurasian plate poses a serious concern to millions of human lives residing in the foreland Himalayan. A devastating earthquake in the Central Seismic Gap (CSG) is anticipated in various studies with a possible estimated slip of ~10 m, thereby a thorough analysis of the foreland set up is essential. Present study aims the Kumaon Himalaya of the CSG using the high-resolution seismic sections along profiles PGR4, PGR5 and PGR6. Profiles PGR4 and PGR5 trend N-S direction across the Kaladungi Fault (KF) and Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT), whereas the PGR6 trends E-W in the Indo-Gangetic plain. Here we mostly observe Siwalik formation and alluvial deposits of the Dabka and Baur rivers. PGR4 and PGR5 clearly show evidence of south verging faults that displace the Siwalik formation. We observe Upper, Middle and Lower Siwalik rocks at ~0.82 and 0.62 s, ~1.38 and 1.27s, and ~1.88 and 1.85 s TWTT in the footwall and hanging wall sides of KF, respectively. Sedimentary deposits near the KF is highly fractured and host multiple traces of the Fault among which two reach to the surface inferring these are active. We further observe highly folded top sediments with evidence of fault bend folding at North of the KF. In the Indo-Gangetic plain, we observe gentle folding in the Lower Siwalik deposits and trace of a south verging fault that meets the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) at ~3 s TWTT displacing the Lower Siwalik deposits by ~ 0.0368 s TWTT. Evidence of such folding and displacements in the formation reveal that foreland Himalaya is conducive to rupture propagation of any major earthquakes developed along MHT over the CSG.

How to cite: Verma, S. and Ghosal, D.: Shallow crustal architecture of the foreland Kumaon Himalaya analysing high-resolution seismic data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9287, 2022.

EGU22-9588 | Presentations | TS3.1

Seismic attenuation tomography in the Carpathian-Pannonian region from ambient seismic noise analysis 

Felix Borleanu, Laura Petrescu, Fabrizio Magrini, Anica Otilia Placinta, Bogdan Grecu, Mircea Radulian, and Luca De Siena

The Carpathian-Pannonian region (CPR) is one of the geotectonically most exciting areas of Europe due to a diversity of tectonic processes activating in close proximity: extensional basin evolution, oceanic subduction, post-collisional volcanism, as well as active crustal deformation associated with the push of the Adria plate or the pull of the actively detaching Vrancea slab. This makes CPR an excellent natural laboratory to study the behavior of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system in a special tectonic setting. To emphasize the lateral heterogeneity and physical properties of the crust in the CPR we investigate noise data recorded by the vertical components of broadband stations that have been operational in 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2020 in Eastern Europe, kindly provided by the Romanian Seismic Network and EIDA-European Integrated Data Archive. With the advent of this large amount of data and by applying a new processing method of ambient seismic noise field based on the continuous wavelet transform, we computed cross-correlations between various station pairs to transform every available seismic station into a virtual source. The inter-station cross-correlograms were used to determine the coda quality factors (Qc) in three different period ranges (2.5–5 s, 5–10 s and 10–20 s) and invert them using a modified version of the open-access code MURAT2D to construct the highest resolution attenuation tomography of the region. By mapping the attenuation features, within the study region, our results reveal high attenuation features throughout the Bohemian Massif, Alcapa unit, and Vrancea area, as well as a strong difference in attenuation between the Pannonian Basin, and stable platform regions located in front of the Carpathians. In addition, Qc variations are larger at short period in agreement with the strong heterogeneities in the uppermost crust. Finally, our findings demonstrate that noise correlation approaches are more efficient in analyzing Qc at lower frequencies than those previously proposed for earthquake data analyses.

How to cite: Borleanu, F., Petrescu, L., Magrini, F., Placinta, A. O., Grecu, B., Radulian, M., and De Siena, L.: Seismic attenuation tomography in the Carpathian-Pannonian region from ambient seismic noise analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9588, 2022.

EGU22-10564 | Presentations | TS3.1

Decade-long monitoring of seismic velocity changes at the Irpinia Fault System (southern Italy) 

Guido Russo, Grazia De Landro, Ortensia Amoroso, Nicola D'Agostino, Raffaella Esposito, Antonio Emolo, and Aldo Zollo

Repeated tomographic inversions in time (the so called 4D tomography) track physical properties and stress changes in the medium hosting fault systems by measuring changes in P and S seismic velocities. These changes may provide insights on fault system dynamics and earthquake triggering mechanisms. We applied 4D tomography to the volume embedding the Irpinia Fault System (IFS, southern Italy) using more than ten years of continuous seismicity monitoring. The IFS is one of the Italian most hazardous fault systems, being able to generate the 1980 Ms 6.9 earthquake, characterized by a multi-segmented rupture. Seismicity was divided into uneven epochs having almost the same spatial resolution of the volume hosting the IFS.

The resulting images show time-invariant features, clearly related to crustal lithology, and time-changing (up to 20%) velocity anomalies in the central region. Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs anomalies are referred to the tomographic model obtained using all the data set, and occur at depths ranging between 1 and 5 km, and between 8 and 12 km. These anomalies are temporally well-correlated with groundwater recharge/discharge series and geodetic displacements during the same time intervals. This correlation provides evidence for the existence of pulsating pore pressure changes in a fractured crustal volume at depth of 8-12 km, saturated with a predominant gas phase (likely CO2) and correlated with groundwater recharge processes,  

We suggest that tomographic measurements of the Vp-to-Vs spatiotemporal changes are a suitable proxy to track the pore pressure evolution at depth in highly sensitive regions of fault systems.

How to cite: Russo, G., De Landro, G., Amoroso, O., D'Agostino, N., Esposito, R., Emolo, A., and Zollo, A.: Decade-long monitoring of seismic velocity changes at the Irpinia Fault System (southern Italy), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10564, 2022.

EGU22-1279 | Presentations | SM5.4

Imaging the upper crust with ambient seismic noise in natural and urban environments 

Jordi Diaz, Sergi Ventosa, Martin Schimmel, Mario Ruiz, and Ramon Carbonell

The SANIMS project is focused on the development and application of methods based on seismic ambient noise to image and monitor natural and human-altered environments focusing on two test sites; the Cerdanya Basin in the eastern Pyrenees, and the city of Barcelona. Broad-band and short-period seismometers and a high-density node network have been used to acquire new data.

Broad-band data has been processed using the frequency-dependent phase cross-correlation and time-scale phase-weighted stacking to extract Rayleigh and Love waves. We have obtained Rayleigh and Love group and phase velocities for periods in the 1.5 – 4 s range, that will be inverted to velocity-depth models. The preliminary results show higher velocities to the North, with a well-defined zone with lower than average velocities around the Cerdanya Basin. The geometry of the basin basement has also been investigated using the amplitudes of ambient noise, HVSR methods and RFs, obtaining consistent results. The recently acquired high-density data has already been processed in terms of amplitude variations and will be integrated with the tomographic images.

The data acquired in Barcelona has first been used to monitor human activity during the COVID19 pandemic. Amplitude variations of seismic noise allow to delineate the main geological units of the Barcelona area. HVSR measures using the new data expand the already available results, hence improving the existing seismic hazard maps, and will allow analyzing eventual temporal variations in the measurements. As in the Cerdanya Basin, the data will be used to extract Rayleigh waves and invert for velocities.

Both datasets will also be used to analyze the applicability of the methods based on Rayleigh wave ellipticity inversion of ambient noise and earthquake data to provide S-velocity depth profiles. We expect that the use of ambient noise methods will allow to map the basement and to obtain new higher resolution ambient noise tomographic images of the upper crust in the Cerdanya Basin and to better constrain the subsoil properties of Barcelona. The results in both areas will allow comparing the performance of these methodologies in quiet and noisy areas.

This is a contribution of the SANIMS project (RTI2018-095594-B-I00)

How to cite: Diaz, J., Ventosa, S., Schimmel, M., Ruiz, M., and Carbonell, R.: Imaging the upper crust with ambient seismic noise in natural and urban environments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1279, 2022.

EGU22-3056 | Presentations | SM5.4

Imaging potential geothermal resources in the Hengill volcanic area (Iceland) with active-source seismics recorded by a dense nodal array 

Lea Gyger, Pilar Sánchez-Pastor, Hansruedi Maurer, Anne Obermann, and Stefan Wiemer

The Hengill area, located a few km west of Reykjavik, is situated on the triple junction of three large geological features: the onshore section of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, called the Reykjanes Peninsula Oblique Rift, the Western Volcanic Zone and the South Iceland Seismic Zone. This area hosts two large-scale geothermal power plants, Nesjavellir and Hellisheiði. Both are producing electricity and hot water. Hengill is also one of the targets of the Iceland Deep Drilling Project that aims at finding and exploiting supercritical fluids.

In summer 2021, a nodal network of 500 5 Hz geophones was deployed in the area over a period of 2 months. It complemented seismic data from a network of broadband stations that were already deployed earlier. In July 2021, a vibroseis experiment was conducted in the area in form of two surveys performed by a fully electrical seismic vibrator truck.  The seismic waveforms were recorded by parts of the nodal network. In this study, we focus on the survey conducted along the road leading to the Nesjavellir geothermal power plant, in Mosfellsheiði. The aim of the survey in Mosfellsheiði is to obtain new insights on a low-velocity anomaly as well as on a yet poorly understood seismic cluster that has been detected in the area by previous studies.

To study the velocity and attenuation structure of the area, we computed a first arrival travel time tomography and an attenuation profile. Finally, we compared our results with an existing 3D seismic ambient noise tomography Vs model of the area as well as with known local subsurface properties, such as resistivity and mineralogy.

The final results of this vibroseis study could be useful for finding new geothermal resources in the Nesjavellir area.

How to cite: Gyger, L., Sánchez-Pastor, P., Maurer, H., Obermann, A., and Wiemer, S.: Imaging potential geothermal resources in the Hengill volcanic area (Iceland) with active-source seismics recorded by a dense nodal array, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3056, 2022.

EGU22-4592 | Presentations | SM5.4

Discovery of scattered subvolcanic complexes that feeded the volcanism in the area of Etna 

Graziella Barberi, Domenico Patanè, Luciano Scarfì, and Mauro Coltelli

In this work we present a new tomographic inversion of the velocity structure and hypocenter parameters at Mt. Etna, carried out by the larger seismic dataset never used than to the previous tomographies. The result of tomographic inversion, including the 3D distributions of P and S velocities, Vp/Vs ratio, and accurate source locations, has been obtained based on the integration of active seismic data (151.403 P-phases from 4.112 shots) acquired during the 2014 TOMO-ETNA experiment (EC-FP7 MED-SUV and EUROFLEET2 MED-SUV.ISES projects) and 10.955 selected local earthquakes data (218.473 P-phases and 39.073 S-phases), recorded by a total number of 262 stations of the INGV permanent seismic network and from the onland and OBS temporary network. For the inversion we used the tomoDDPS algorithm [Zhang et al., 2009] and the input velocity model previously obtained with the PARTOS code (Moreno et al. 2016), considering a total number of 1.580.343 P and 228.663 S differential times.

Based on our data selection and inversion strategy, we obtain a strongly improved 3-D high-resolution Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs models both onland and offshore the volcano, discovering for the first time, in the peripherical part of the edifice: i) on-land, the presence of two subvolcanic complexes in the south-eastern and southern flanks, west to Acicastello-Acitrezza and Paternò and Motta, respectively, where the Etna’s ancient volcanisms (500 to 110 ka) manifested and ii) the presence of a ca. N-S oriented high velocity anomaly (5.0-6.5 km/s) located offshore southeast of Etna area, suggesting a clear interplay between submarine volcanic manifestations and tectonic setting. This body extending from about the sea level to ca. 8 km b.s.l. confirms the observation of a large and intense magnetic positive anomaly (>700 nT) related to deep sources (Cavallaro et al., 2016), evidenced by the magnetic survey carried out during TOMO-ETNA.

 

How to cite: Barberi, G., Patanè, D., Scarfì, L., and Coltelli, M.: Discovery of scattered subvolcanic complexes that feeded the volcanism in the area of Etna, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4592, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4592, 2022.

EGU22-5048 | Presentations | SM5.4 | Highlight

An integrated geophysical approach for imaging of the Semail ophiolite 

Simone Pilia, Mohammed Ali, Mike Searle, Anthony Watts, Brook Keats, and Tyler Ambrose

The Semail ophiolite, a thick thrust sheet of Late Cretaceous oceanic crust and upper mantle, was obducted onto the previously rifted Arabian continental margin in the Late Cretaceous, and now forms part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)-Oman mountain belt. A deep foreland basin along the west and SW margin of the mountains developed during the obduction process, as a result of flexure due to loading of the ophiolite and underlying thrust sheets. Structural and compositional complexities (e.g., presence of thick sand dunes, relatively shallow high-velocity and dense ophiolite structure) have made geophysical imaging of the sub-ophiolite and mid-lower crustal structure particularly challenging.

A combination of active and passive-source seismic techniques, potential field modelling and surface geological mapping are used to constrain the stratigraphy, velocity structure and crustal thickness beneath the UAE-Oman mountains and its bounding basins. Depth-migrated multichannel seismic-reflection profile data are integrated in the modeling of traveltimes from long offset reflections and refractions, which are used to resolve the crustal thickness and velocity structure along two E-W onshore/offshore transects in the UAE. Additionally, we apply receiver function and virtual deep seismic sounding methods to distant earthquake data recorded along the two transects to image crustal thickness variations. Seismic and geological constraints from the transects have been finally used to model gravity and magnetic anomaly data along two coincident profiles.

Geophysical methods define the Semail ophiolite as a high-velocity, high density, > 15 km thick body dipping to the east. The western limit of the ophiolite is defined onshore by the Semail thrust while the eastern limit extends several km offshore, where it is defined seismically by a ~40–45° normal fault. Emplacement of the ophiolite has probably flexed down a previously rifted continental margin, thus contributing to subsidence of flanking sedimentary basins. The new crustal thickness model presented in this work provides evidence that a crustal root is present beneath the Semail ophiolite, suggesting that folding and thrusting during the obduction process may have thickened the pre-existing crust by 16 km.

How to cite: Pilia, S., Ali, M., Searle, M., Watts, A., Keats, B., and Ambrose, T.: An integrated geophysical approach for imaging of the Semail ophiolite, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5048, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5048, 2022.

EGU22-6839 | Presentations | SM5.4 | Highlight

Controls on early-stage, magma-poor rifting from top-to-bottom seismic imaging of the Malawi (Nyasa) Rift 

Donna Shillington, James Gaherty, Christopher Scholz, Andrew Nyblade, Patrick Chindandali, Richard Wambura Ferdinand, Gabriel Mbogoni, Emily Hopper, Natalie Accardo, Gabrielle Tepp, Ashley Grivalja, David Borrego, and Gabriel Mulibo

Few constraints are available on variations in extension with depth and along-strike in early stage continental rift systems, leaving many questions on the mechanisms of extension and the controlling factors. The Malawi (Nyasa) Rift in the southern East Africa Rift System exemplifies an active, magma-poor, weakly extended continental rift. Between 2014-2016, we collected a multi-faceted, amphibious, active- and passive-source seismic dataset across the northern Malawi Rift as a part of the SEGMeNT (Studies of Extension and maGmatism in Malawi aNd Tanzania) interdisciplinary experiment. Together, analysis and integration of these seismic imaging datasets provide a comprehensive portrait of the style and amount of stretching throughout the lithosphere and along strike.  Broadband scattered-wave imaging and wide-angle seismic reflection/refraction data reveal substantial variations in extension with depth, with much more thinning of the lithospheric mantle than the crust (stretching factors of 3.8 and 1.7, respectively). The modest observed reduction in velocity below the rift from both broadband surface- and body-wave imaging can be explained with small thermal perturbations and without melt. Lower velocities and complex patterns of anisotropy underlie the Rungwe Volcanic Province to the north of the Malawi Rift, suggesting focused lithospheric modification, melting and complex mantle flow below this localized volcanic province.  Active-source seismic refraction and multi-channel seismic (MCS) reflection data quantify cumulative extension accommodated by the border faults and intrarift faults. Border faults have throws up to ~8 km and bound half graben basins. Intrarift faults are also relatively large (throws up to 2.5 km) and active, and they are estimated to account for ~20-25% of cumulative upper crustal extension. Along-strike variations are observed in faulting and in crustal and lithospheric stretching. In this presentation, we will synthesize these seismic imaging results and compare them with complementary constraints, including from other parts of the SEGMeNT project .

 

How to cite: Shillington, D., Gaherty, J., Scholz, C., Nyblade, A., Chindandali, P., Wambura Ferdinand, R., Mbogoni, G., Hopper, E., Accardo, N., Tepp, G., Grivalja, A., Borrego, D., and Mulibo, G.: Controls on early-stage, magma-poor rifting from top-to-bottom seismic imaging of the Malawi (Nyasa) Rift, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6839, 2022.

EGU22-6878 | Presentations | SM5.4

Calibrating sediment thickness utilizing receiver functions and borehole data 

Shubham Agrawal, Caroline Eakin, and John O'Donnell

A blanket of sedimentary and regolith material covers approximately three-quarters of the Australian continent, obscuring the crustal geology below and potential mineral resources within. Sedimentary basins also trap seismic energy increasing seismic hazard and generating noisy seismograms that make determining deeper crustal and lithospheric structure more challenging. The most fundamental question that can first be asked in addressing these challenges is how thick are the sediments? Borehole drilling and active seismic experiments provide excellent constraints, but they are limited in geographical coverage due to their expense, especially when operating in remote areas. On the other hand, passive-seismic deployments are relatively low-cost and portable, providing a practical alternative for initial surveys. Here we utilize receiver functions obtained for both temporary and permanent seismic stations in South Australia, covering regions with a diverse sediment distribution. We present a straightforward method to determine the basement depth based on the arrival time of the P-converted-to-S phase generated at the boundary between the crustal basement and sedimentary strata above. Utilizing the available borehole data, we establish a simple predictive relationship between Ps arrival time and the basement depth, which could then be applied to other sedimentary basins with some consideration. The method is found to work best for Phanerozoic sediments and offers a way to determine the sediment-basement interface in unexplored areas requiring only temporary seismic stations deployed for < 6 months.

How to cite: Agrawal, S., Eakin, C., and O'Donnell, J.: Calibrating sediment thickness utilizing receiver functions and borehole data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6878, 2022.

EGU22-9491 | Presentations | SM5.4

Cluster Analysis of Velocity Profiles around Hudson Bay using Unsupervised Machine Learning 

Akash Kharita and Amy Gilligan

Understanding deep crustal structure can provide us with insights into tectonic processes and how they affect the geological record. Deep crustal structure can be studied using a variety of seismological techniques such as receiver function analysis, and surface and body wave tomography. Using models of crustal structure derived from these methods, it is possible to delineate tectonic boundaries and regions that have been affected by similar processes. However, often velocity models are grouped together in a somewhat subjective manner, potentially meaning that some geological insight may be missed. Cluster analysis, based on unsupervised machine learning, can be used to more objectively group together similar velocity profiles and, thus, put additional constraints on the deep crustal structure.

In this study, we apply hierarchical agglomerative clustering to the shear wave velocity profiles obtained by Gilligan et. al. (2016) from the joint inversion of receiver functions and surface wave dispersion data at 59 sites surrounding Hudson Bay. This location provides an ideal natural laboratory to study Precambrian tectonic processes, including the 1.8Ga Trans-Hudson Orogen. We use Ward linkage to define the distance between clusters, as this gives the most physically realistic results, and after testing the number of clusters from 2 to 10 find there are 5 main stable clusters of velocity models. We then compare our results with different inversion parameters, clustering schemes (K-means and GMM), results obtained for Vp (P-wave velocity) and ρ (Density), as well as results obtained for profiles from receiver functions in different azimuths and found that, overall, the clustering results are consistent.

The clusters that form correlate well with the surface geology, crustal thickness, regional tectonics and previous geophysical studies concentrated on specific regions. The profiles in the Archean domains (Rae, Hearne and Superior) were clearly distinguished from the profiles in the Proterozoic domains (Southern Baffin Island and Ungava Peninsula). Further, the crust of Melville Peninsula is found to be in the same cluster as the crust of western coast of Ungava Peninsula, suggesting similar crustal structure. Our study shows the promising use of unsupervised machine learning in interpreting deep crustal structure to gain new geological insights.

How to cite: Kharita, A. and Gilligan, A.: Cluster Analysis of Velocity Profiles around Hudson Bay using Unsupervised Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9491, 2022.

EGU22-10828 | Presentations | SM5.4

Seismic Tomography of Peninsular Malaysia Inferred from Teleseismic Earthquake 

Abdul Halim Abdul Latiff

While there are several geological characterizations of Peninsular Malaysia based on the surface geological study, subsurface evaluation based on the seismic data is still lacking. In this work, tomography of the studied region is being investigated through teleseismic earthquake recorded by several seismic stations located along the peninsula. Throughout the tomography analysis, the 1D ak135 global velocity model is used for computing the travel times from the earthquake source to the edge of the 3-D model. In addition, a similar 1-D ak135 model also being used as the starting model for iterative tomography inversion within the 10.5°N to 0.5°S and 96.5°E to 108.0°E boundary region. The seismological data used for this tomography analysis was acquired from 11 stations that shared with International Seismological Centre (ISC) database and Malaysia Meteorological Department (MMD) respiratory. In total, there were 1598 teleseismic earthquakes events recorded in between 2005 to 2016 which satisfy the criteria of 6.0  or larger. Prior to the iterative travel-time computation, the model’s sensitivity and reliability towards the external changes in the data noise and initial conditions were evaluated through the checkerboard resolution test. The synthetic reconstruction images show that the pattern of the checkerboard anomaly is properly recovered at depth of 30 km, 60 km and 90 km with corresponding high and low wave speed have been recovered as per input model. From the 3580 P-wave arrival time, tomography output is generated at 30 km depth interval, from within the crustal layer of 30 km depth, till the uppermost mantle structure of 300 km depth. In addition, the North-South and East-West sections of the peninsula are produced for a better interpretation of the crustal and uppermost mantle layers in the region. In general, the variation from fast to slow wave speed is noticeable in the Northwards trend, apart from KGM station in the Southern Peninsular Malaysia where a slower velocity recorded compared to its surrounding. The Earth’s structure beneath the SRIT, SKLT, SURA, IPM and KUM stations are experiencing a relative negative wave speed perturbation, while the positive wave speed perturbation is recorded beneath JRM, KOM and BTDF stations. The slower wave speed is recorded in Southern Thailand region and continue southward to the North-West part of Peninsular Malaysia, indicated the sedimentation of Semanggol formation that consists of Carboniferous marine shales. It also concluded that Western-Eastern belt separation of the Malay Peninsula is clearly evident from the velocity contrast. In summary, the latest tomography analysis retrieve from teleseismic earthquake provides a new dimension of the subsurface analysis within the Malay Peninsula region.

How to cite: Abdul Latiff, A. H.: Seismic Tomography of Peninsular Malaysia Inferred from Teleseismic Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10828, 2022.

EGU22-10944 | Presentations | SM5.4

Active time-reverse imaging: Defect detection by coda waves in digital concrete physics 

Martin Balcewicz, Claudia Finger, and Erik H. Saenger

The localization of defects (i.e., fractures or damages) is essential in evaluating and assessing concrete in, for example, bridges. For this reason, this study presents a non-destructive testing method used primarily in passive seismology applied to active ultrasonic waveforms. Changes in the coda wave can provide information about the defect location by comparing two measurements with and without a defect.

The signal comparison of active transducer signals recorded with several receivers for material before and after an applied load is the basis of Active Time-Reverse Imaging (A-TRI). This study applies the TRI technique to the signal-based analysis of reinforced concrete specimens' acoustic emission (AE). Classical time-reverse modeling uses recorded passive signals, recorded laboratory, or field experiments as input. The recorded wavefield is reversed in time and backpropagated numerically through an adequate medium representation. The wavefield will then ideally focus on the original source location. In contrast to the standard passive TRI method, an active ultrasound method using the generated wavefield from an active source is used in A-TRI. The general workflow is divided into two basic steps: (1) Ultrasonic waves are emitted from single or multiple transducers on the surface and propagate through the original medium. Several receivers record the signals. (2) The experiment is repeated with precisely the same setting after a specific loading scenario. However, the potential damage is to be detected in this case. The difference of both signals is reversed in time and used as the input signal for a time-reverse simulation to locate the defect.

We see the A-TRI method as a complementary method to typically used coda-wave interferometry (CWI) to detect velocity changes in the medium. On the other hand, A-TRI can precisely determine the location of the defect. In the following, a feasibility study is presented in which the A-TRI method is applied to a synthetic data set to localize the defect.

How to cite: Balcewicz, M., Finger, C., and Saenger, E. H.: Active time-reverse imaging: Defect detection by coda waves in digital concrete physics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10944, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10944, 2022.

EGU22-11712 | Presentations | SM5.4

Crustal structure beneath northern Myanmar: preliminary results from ambient noise tomography 

Yanling Liang, Xiaohui Yuan, Bernd Schurr, Frederik Tilmann, Wei Li, and Oo Than

Adjoining the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis, linking to the Indian slab indentation northward and Andaman slab subduction eastward, Myanmar is one of the most complicated and active tectonic regions in the world, and exposed to a high seismic hazard. The Burmese arc consists of the Indo-Burman Ranges (IBR), an accretionary wedge in the west and the Central Myanmar Basin in the east. It is bounded in the east by the seismically active Sagaing Fault to the Shan Plateau which is part of the Asian plate. Intermediate-depth seismicity below Myanmar occurs at depths up to ~150 km, generally understood to be related to the subducting Burma slab.  An important open question concerns the transition from oceanic subduction to continental subduction/collision along the Burmense arc. The transition is also thought to affect the upper plate crust. In this study, we collected ambient noise data set based on a temporary seismic array in Myanmar in order to constrain the variation of crustal structure. The station array includes 30 broadband stations from a temporary network (code 6C 2019-2021) at GEOFON data center. They were deployed by the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) and the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of Myanmar (DMH) across the eastern IBR and Central Myanmar Basin in early 2019  with an average interstation distance of ~60 km and data are available to 2020 for most stations. We calculated the cross-correlations daily for all available station pairs through the NoisePy code and stacked further into yearly time-series. We measured Rayleigh wave group and phase velocity dispersions from cross-correlations by using the frequency-time analysis (FTAN) and calculated maps of phase dispersion. As a next step, we will construct a detailed crustal and upper mantle structure beneath Myanmar.

How to cite: Liang, Y., Yuan, X., Schurr, B., Tilmann, F., Li, W., and Than, O.: Crustal structure beneath northern Myanmar: preliminary results from ambient noise tomography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11712, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11712, 2022.

The imaging of volcanic structures by means of seismic techniques is aimed at the structural characterization and monitoring purposes. The quiescent volcano of the Solfatara belong to the caldera of the Campi Flegrei Italy, a resurgent nested caldera that has been extensively investigated through active seismic investigation.

The fumaroles of Bocca Grande and Bocca Nuova at the Solfatara volcano, represent some of the main markers of deep magmatic shallow hydrothermal activity. In this article we identify the gas accumulation zone using the attributes and scaled Poisson ratio extracted from multi-2D seismic profiles. The 400 m long profiles,  have been acquired during the active experiment RICEN (Repeated Induced Earthquake and Noise) performed in the context of the EU project MEDSUV between May and November 2014. The seismic arrays were deployed along the NE-SW and NW-SE directions within the crater across the zones of the fumaroles and the “fangaia”.

The time- and depth-sections are reconstructed after applying residual statics, DMO corrections, CMP gathering, and the post-stack Kirchhoff migration technique. The energy, root mean square, envelope, and sweetness attributes have been computed and extracted for determining the maximum and minimum values of amplitude zones on the migrated, post-stack seismic sections. Furthermore, we have investigated the time-gain attribute, which is used to interpret deep reflectors, and the variance attribute, that is a geometrical attribute providing information on location of faults, discontinuities, and chaotic zones. To better detail the reflectivity of shallow events, enhanced by the post stack attributes, the Amplitude Versus Offset (AVO) technique has also been used to discriminate and identify shallow gas pockets. The seismic profile, seismic attributes, and near-surface structural interpretation of the Solfatara volcano have been combined into a final structural image of the Solfatara subsoil. This show a clear evidence of the fluids trapping zones at 10-50 m depth beneath the crater's surface, as well as their migration paths down to 150 meters depth.

How to cite: Gammaldi, S., Ismail, A., and Zollo, A.: The updated multi-2D image of the gas accumulation zone inferred by seismic attributes and AVO analysis at the Solfatara Volcano, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11885, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11885, 2022.

EGU22-11919 | Presentations | SM5.4

Monitoring the b-value unravels critical stress-changes along magma pathways: results from Etna volcano 

Marco Firetto Carlino, Luciano Scarfì, Flavio Cannavò, Graziella Barberi, Domenico Patanè, and Mauro Coltelli

The analysis of the b-value, i.e. the slope of the Gutenberg & Richter frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes, provides the chance to investigate the local stress conditions with great resolution, especially in active volcanic areas, where seismic productivity is generally high.

In this work we investigated the seismicity of Mt. Etna between 2005 and 2019, focusing on one of the largest known episodes of unrest in December 2018, when most of the intruding magma aborted its ascent inside the volcano. We found a possible stress concentration zone along magma pathways that may have inhibited the occurrence of a larger, more complete eruption. The b-values time series strongly increase about 19 days before the December 2018 unrest event, while a sharp drop of b started 2 days in advance. 

Our results suggest that the study of the b-value, in broader correlation with other monitoring measurements, may offer an opportunity to investigate the volcano state and improve the assessment of impending volcanic eruptions.

How to cite: Firetto Carlino, M., Scarfì, L., Cannavò, F., Barberi, G., Patanè, D., and Coltelli, M.: Monitoring the b-value unravels critical stress-changes along magma pathways: results from Etna volcano, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11919, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11919, 2022.

EGU22-12205 | Presentations | SM5.4

Variation of crustal thickness in Borneo and Sulawesi 

Harry Telajan Linang, Amy Gilligan, Jennifer Jenkins, Simone Pilia, Tim Greenfield, Nicholas Rawlinson, Pepen Supendi, Felix Tongkul, and Sri Widiyantoro

The Southeast Asia (SEA) region is tectonically very active as it accommodates the northward movement of the Indo-Australian plate in the south and the westward movement of the Philippine Sea plate in the east. Borneo and Sulawesi are located in the centre of SEA, which is our area of interest. Borneo has an intraplate setting, while Sulawesi is situated above several microplate boundaries. For that reason, Sulawesi is seismically and volcanically more active than Borneo. The tectonic link and evolution between the two islands are not well understood as we are missing some fundamental knowledge, such as the variations in their crustal thickness and structure. This includes the provenance of their respective lithosphere, which may have Eurasian and/or East Gondwana origin.

Here, we show the results obtained from the receiver function (RF) study on seismic stations in the region to have a better understanding of the crust and mantle lithosphere beneath the two islands. The RF study includes H-k stacking, time-depth migration of the RF and inversion to estimate crustal thickness and the shear speed variation with depth. The finding from this study shows that the crust in Sulawesi is much more complex than that of Borneo. The crustal thickness gradually changes throughout Borneo, with northern Borneo having an overall thicker crust than other parts of the island. In Sulawesi, the crustal thickness is much more varied across small distances, especially along the northern and southern arms of the island.

We also show some results from the Virtual Deep Seismic Sounding (VDSS) method, which we only applied to the seismic stations in northern Borneo. We used VDSS on Northern Borneo to learn more about its complex tectonic history, such as the two subduction episodes and a continent-continent collision in a recent geological time scale. Our finding reveals a band of alternating thick and thin crust striking NE-SW in this region, which we believed resulted from extensional tectonics related to the Sulu Sea basin opening in the Miocene.

How to cite: Linang, H. T., Gilligan, A., Jenkins, J., Pilia, S., Greenfield, T., Rawlinson, N., Supendi, P., Tongkul, F., and Widiyantoro, S.: Variation of crustal thickness in Borneo and Sulawesi, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12205, 2022.

EGU22-540 | Presentations | GD7.2

3D Modeling of Crust-Mantle Dynamics on Cratonic Regions: Implications for the Deformation of North China Craton 

Açelya Ballı, Oğuz Göğüş, and Jeroen van Hunen

A number of geological, geochemical and seismological studies suggest that cratonic lithospheres may be associated with thinning and destruction. For such unique plate configurations, the most well-known example is the North China craton. Geological studies suggest that during the Mesozoic era (120-80 Ma), a surge of magmatism occurred across the North China Craton as a response to the removal of the portions of the lithosphere beneath it. However, the question of which processes control lithospheric thinning/removal is yet to be understood. The one that is the subject of this study is the deformation controlled by gravitational instabilities (convective removal), that develop because of density variations between the lithosphere and the underlying sub-lithospheric (asthenospheric) mantle.

In accordance with numerical model predictions conceptual geological hypotheses are inferred to invoke the phase transitions in the lower crust and densification of this layer through the transformation of the basalt to eclogite during late Jurassic where Pacific flat-slab subduction led to shortening in the continental back arc (e.g Andean type tectonics). The removal event possibly occurred following the plate shortening during Early Cretaceous and various surface geological features, for instance, normal faulting/extension and pull apart basins and are interpreted in the context of coupled crust-mantle dynamics. This research aims to facilitate new 3D modelling strategies to further explain how large-scale plate geodynamics may account for the geological-geophysical fingerprints of destruction at North China Craton. The problem of deformation of the North China Craton will be approached on a much broader aspect including the extensional events that took place in Cretaceous. The overarching goal of this work is to explain the first order geodynamic mechanism that possibly constrain the craton destructions not only under North China but also other areas where such mechanism has been postulated (e.g North America, South Africa). 

 

 

 

How to cite: Ballı, A., Göğüş, O., and van Hunen, J.: 3D Modeling of Crust-Mantle Dynamics on Cratonic Regions: Implications for the Deformation of North China Craton, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-540, 2022.

Despite the influence of several extrinsic parameters that inhibits the use of trace element composition of detrital zircon grains in inferring their host rocks, workers had overcome many related problems and particularly constrained zircon/bulk rock partition co-efficient at least for different granitoids, for example. Based on these kind of progress and few other fundamental works, we have tried to apply trace element composition of detrital zircon grains retrieved from some basal quartz pebble conglomerate units and orthoquartzites of Dharwar craton in studying the crustal evolution pattern of this craton, specifically in terms of its changing crustal thickness with time. In this study, after categorising the pristine zircon grains identified by their La>1, Pr>1 and LREE-I<30 values, the values of their LREE/HREE ratio (measured by their Lu/Nd ratio) are used to infer the temporal variation of crustal thickness within this craton. Here, the zircon grains show depressed values of LREE/HREE ratio manifested in their higher Lu/Nd ratio which possibly attests the absence of thicker continental crust in Dharwar craton between 3.4-3.1 Ga. We would also try to establish our observation regarding the secular evolution of crustal thickness of Dharwar craton with the help of other bivariate plots using the other trace elemental proxies. Our result stand in contradiction with the finding of other workers who, with the help of geophysical parameters, inferred the greater thickness of continental crust attested in WDC within the said time frame  

How to cite: Mitra, A. and Dey, S.: Tale of crustal evolution of western Dharwar craton in Paleo-to- Meso Archean time: Insights from trace elemental composition of detrital zircons of some selected quartzite units., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-609, 2022.

EGU22-2524 | Presentations | GD7.2

Evidence for a ca 1.86 Ga continental margin in the Baltic Sea region: rock chemistry, U-Pb ages, and Nd and Sr isotopic data 

Grazina Skridlaite, Laurynas Siliauskas, Martin Whitehouse, Åke Johansson, and Andrius Rimsa

The concealed basement of the Mid-Lithuanian domain (MLD) is considered to be part of a larger Precambrian unit within the western East European Craton (EEC), the Mid-Baltic belt (MBB), established by Bogdanova et al. (2015). New data on rock chemistry, U-Pb ages, and the Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr isotopic systems allow to subdivide the MLD into distinct parts, discuss their origin and correlate them with similar units on the Swedish side.

The MLD can be subdivided into two parts: NW and SE. The NW MLD magmatic rocks crystallized from 1.86 to 1.83 Ga and were subsequently intruded by 1.81-1.80 Ga granitoids and charnockitoids. The NW MLD samples have SiO2 contents between 48 and 71 wt.% but have similar initial εNd values at -1 to -2, while their initial Sr isotope ratios scatter. Nd isotope data suggest either an enriched mantle source, or a mantle magma that was mixed with older crustal material.

The SE MLD magmatic rocks originated from a slightly depleted mantle source from 1.87 to 1.82 Ga. At 1792±9 Ma, they were intruded by gabbronorites which in turn were crosscut by thin veinlets of microgabbronorite at 1758±11 Ma. The SE MLD rocks have positive εNd (+1 to +3) and undisturbed Rb/Sr systems suggesting mantle-derivation, with the variation in composition (mafic to felsic) due to fractionation rather than crustal contributions.

The SE MLD magmatic series with oceanic island arc affinity correlate well with the ca 1.85 Ga Fröderyd metavolcanics of the Vetlanda-Oskarshamn belt (Salin et al., 2021) in SE Sweden, while the NW MLD rocks are similar to the TIB-0 (1.86-1.85 Ga) Askersund granitoids (cf. Salin et al., 2021) in the southern Bergslagen area. The younger (1.81-1.79 Ga) intrusives in both areas are time-equivalents of the TIB-1 magmatism on the Swedish side. Thus, the MLD as well as its counterparts on the Swedish side of the Baltic Sea, the TIB-0 magmatism in the southern Bergslagen area and the Vetlanda-Oskarshamn belt, may be assigned to the same Mid-Baltic Belt, representing an active, south-facing continental margin established at ca. 1.86 Ga. The shape and outline of the Belt was affected by the Fennoscandia-Sarmatia collision at ca. 1.82-1.80 Ga, the 1.81-1.76 Ga TIB-1 magmatism, as well as by later Mesoproterozoic intraplate magmatism.

Bogdanova, S. et al., 2015. Precambrian Research 259, 5–33.

Salin, E. et al., 2019. Precambrian Research 328, 287–308.

Salin, E. et al., 2021. Precambrian Research 356, 106134

How to cite: Skridlaite, G., Siliauskas, L., Whitehouse, M., Johansson, Å., and Rimsa, A.: Evidence for a ca 1.86 Ga continental margin in the Baltic Sea region: rock chemistry, U-Pb ages, and Nd and Sr isotopic data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2524, 2022.

Deep-seated upwellings within the Earth’s mantle, also known as mantle plumes, affect the Earth’s surface by inducing (large-scale) volcanism, initiating continental breakup and increasing surface heat flow. Plume-lithosphere interaction may also generate lithospheric erosion at the base of the tectonic plates. It is therefore important to understand the past positions and movements of mantle plumes relative to the surface plates. However, while hotspot tracks beneath thin oceanic lithosphere are visible as volcanic island chains, the plume-lithosphere interaction for thick continental or cratonic lithosphere often remains hidden due to the lack of volcanism.

To identify plume tracks with missing volcanism, we characterize the relationship and timing between plume-lithosphere interaction and associated surface heat flux anomalies by using numerical models of mantle convection. Our results indicate a relation between lithospheric thinning and surface heat flux anomaly, which is independent of geometry and can be approximated analytically. We have confirmed this close link between basal erosion of the lithosphere and surface heat flux anomaly using an analytical expression form the time-dependence of heat transmission through convectively thinned lithosphere. Anomaly amplitudes primarily depend on the viscosity structure of the lower lithosphere and the asthenosphere, with a minor dependence on plume temperature. Lithospheric thinning is strongest around the time the plate is above the plume conduit, while the maximum heat flux anomaly occurs about 40-140 Myr later. Therefore, continental and cratonic plume tracks can be identified by lithospheric thinning, even if they lack extrusive and intrusive magmatism, followed by elevated surface heat flux several 10s of Myr later. This has important implications, especially for arctic settings such as Greenland or Antarctica, as ice melting rates might be affected by elevated heat flow long after the plume passage.

How to cite: Heyn, B. and Conrad, C.: Basal erosion and surface heat flux anomalies associated with plume-lithosphere interaction beneath continents, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2631, 2022.

EGU22-2977 | Presentations | GD7.2

Imaging the full extent of the Australian cratonic lithosphere using waveform tomography with massive datasets. 

Janneke de Laat, Sergei Lebedev, Bruna Chagas de Melo, Nicolas Celli, and Raffaele Bonadio

Australia has a long a complex geological history, spanning from the early Archean to the present day. Tomographic models can help us better understand the evolution of Australia by imaging the seismic structure of the crust and underlying mantle. We present a new S-wave tomographic model, Aus22, computed using a very large dataset of 0.9 million seismograms. The dataset includes all publicly available broadband data and yields the densest possible coverage across the hemisphere centred at the Australian continent, with sparser coverage elsewhere. Aus22 is computed using a three-step inversion procedure: 1. waveform inversion, 2. tomographic inversion and 3. outlier analysis. The model is validated by resolution tests and, for particular locations with notable differences with previous models, by independent inter-station measurements of surface-wave phase velocities. The new tomography resolves the structure of the Australian Plate and its boundaries in great detail. Cratonic lithosphere underlies nearly all of western and central Australia and shows substantial lateral heterogeneity. The highest seismic velocities are observed in the central-west portion of the continent, including the West and South Australian Craton. The North Australian Craton can be distinguished by a slightly lower seismic velocity, especially in its southern part. The cratonic lithosphere below the North Australian Craton extends northwards offshore through the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Arufa and Timor Sea and terminates at the southern Banda Arc and the New Guinea Fold-and-Thrust Belt, marking the northern boundary of the Australian Plate. The eastern boundary of the cratonic lithosphere is close, in most places, to the geologically defined Tasman Line and provides a new, deep-lithospheric definition of this line. East of this boundary, the lithosphere transitions to thin, warm lithosphere underlying the volcanically active east of the continent. This transition is sharp in the north, where it is located just west of the Georgetown Inlier, whereas an area of moderately thick, transitional lithosphere is present in the south-central part of the continent.

How to cite: de Laat, J., Lebedev, S., Chagas de Melo, B., Celli, N., and Bonadio, R.: Imaging the full extent of the Australian cratonic lithosphere using waveform tomography with massive datasets., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2977, 2022.

South African lithosphere is a mosaic of the best-preserved and exposed crustal blocks, assembled in the early to late Archean and then modified by a series of major tectono-thermal events, both of Precambrian and Phanerozoic age. Understanding the thermal and compositional structure of the South African lithosphere provides crucial information for the causes and processes of lithospheric stability and modification.

The lithosphere's effective elastic thickness (Te) is a proxy for mechanical strength that can be used to constrain lithospheric rheology and better understand how surface deformation affects deep Earth processes.

In this study, we calculate the admittance and coherence for southern Africa using topography and Bouguer gravity data from the GOCE satellite dataset. The admittance and coherence are then jointly inverted to estimate the spatial variations in southern African elastic thickness, by applying a wavelet transform in a probabilistic Bayesian framework.

Unlike other Cratonic regions, the low effective elastic thickness values and the shallow Curie depth estimated along the Kaapvaal Craton, demonstrate that lithospheric strength is influenced by regional thermo-chemical mantle upwelling dominated by composition, rather than just the continental geothermal state.

The lateral heterogeneity of Te across the Kaapvaal craton indicates that the Kaapvaal may not be a uniformly rigid craton and the modification is related to metasomatism and plume activity.

 

How to cite: Sobh, M., Gerhards, C., and Fadel, I.: Mechanical Strength of Southern African’s Lithosphere from a Joint Inversion of Bouguer Gravity and Topography and its Uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3561, 2022.

EGU22-5438 | Presentations | GD7.2

Crustal growth of Archean and early Proterozoic granitoids of the Ivindo region in the Souanké and Bomalinga areas from Congo Craton (North-West Republic of Congo) 

Rodeck Patrick Alan Loemba, Legran Juldit Espoir Plavy Ntsiele, Urbain Fiacre Opo, Carmel Bazebizonza Tchiguina, Hardy Medry Dieu-Veill Nkodia, and Florent Boudzoumou

Most interpretations of the Archean rocks in the Central Congo Craton have only focused on data from Cameroon and Gabon, few of them have included data from the Ivindo region in northwest Republic of Congo. This study presents for the first time a regional interpretation of the Archean rocks of the Congo craton from data on granitoids of the Ivindo region. Modal compositions vary between quartz-rich granitoids or pegmatite, granodiorites, granites and tonalites. These rocks are metaluminous and peraluminous (~0.8≤A/CNK≤~1.3) and define magmatic lineages that are predominantly calc-alkaline, tholeiitic, and rarely highly potassic calc-alkaline. REE diagrams show that these rocks are rich in rare earth elements (LREE) and large ionic lithophile (LILE), while exhibiting significant negative anomalies in Nb-Ta, and in Ti. Such geochemical signatures indicate that these granitoids formed possibly in a subduction tectonic setting. These geochemical signatures are comparable with the Dharwar, North China, and Pilbara cratons, also in similar Archean cratons.

The U-Pb ages based on zircon indicate that tonalites were amplaced at (2891.2 ± 10.6 and 2820.37 ± 6.23 Ma), pegmatite were amplaced at (2878.2 ± 13.6 and 2891.0 ± 12.6 Ma), granodiorite were ampleced at (2828. 98 ± 6.23 Ma) and granite were ampleced at (2430.19 ± 8.11 Ma). Thesse periods of magmatisme describe here revels the magmatic history of the Archean granitoids of the Congo craton in the Ivindo Bassement from 3085 ± 21.6 and 2430.19 ± 8.11 Ma.

Keywords: Archean, Crustal growth, Granitoids, Ivindo region, Congo craton, Republic of Congo.

 

 

How to cite: Loemba, R. P. A., Ntsiele, L. J. E. P., Opo, U. F., Bazebizonza Tchiguina, C., Nkodia, H. M. D.-V., and Boudzoumou, F.: Crustal growth of Archean and early Proterozoic granitoids of the Ivindo region in the Souanké and Bomalinga areas from Congo Craton (North-West Republic of Congo), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5438, 2022.

EGU22-6102 | Presentations | GD7.2 | Highlight

Nature vs. Nurture: Understanding the survival of Archean cratons 

Heather Bedle, Catherine Cooper, and Carol Frost

In a geodynamic, geological and geophysical review of global Archean cratons, we find that the survival of Archean cratons depends on the initial conditions of their formation, as well as the tectonic processes to which they were exposed.  In a sense, we must consider both their nature and how they were nurtured.  In a review of existing literature and models, we use stability regime diagrams to understand the factors that contribute to the intrinsic strength of a craton: buoyancy, viscosity, and relative integrated yield strength. We find that cratons formed in the Archean when thermal conditions enhanced extraction of large melt fractions and early cratonization promoted the formation of stable Archean cratonic lithosphere.  In terms of the cratons' nurturing, processes that may have modified and weaken cratonic lithosphere include subduction and slab rollback, rifting, and mantle plumes, as these processes introduced materials and conditions that warmed and metasomatized the lithosphere.  Examining four Archean cratons that are more stable, and four that are categorized as modified or destroyed, we note that continental lithosphere that was cratonized prior to the end of the Archean has more potential to survive deformation during the last 500 My. Although, the survivability of these cratons is highly dependent on their unique positions relative to larger scale tectonic processes, such as subduction.   We also observe that once an Archean craton begins to undergo even a small amount of modification, it is more likely to continue to be modified, as it loses the preservation advantage that it had upon birth.

How to cite: Bedle, H., Cooper, C., and Frost, C.: Nature vs. Nurture: Understanding the survival of Archean cratons, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6102, 2022.

EGU22-6661 | Presentations | GD7.2

Ocean break-up and related mountain rise controlled by a continentalcrustal root 

Anna Makushkina, Benoit Tauzin, Meghan S. Miller, Hrvoje Tkalčić, and Hans Thybo

Large-scale topography is thought to be mainly controlled by active tectonic processes. Fennoscandia is located far from any active tectonic setting and yet includes a mountain range along its passive North Atlantic margin. Models proposed to explain the origin of these enigmatic mountains are based on glacial isostatic adjustments, delamination, long-term isostatic equilibration, and dynamic support from the mantle, yet no consensus has been reached.

Here we demonstrate that Precambrian lithospheric structure of Fennoscandia controlled both Cenozoic oceanic breakup and recent mountain rise in the North Atlantic region. Fennoscandia formed by amalgamation of Proterozoic and Archean continental blocks; using both S- and P-receiver functions, we discovered that the Fennoscandian lithosphere still retains the original structural heterogeneity and its western margin is composed of three distinct blocks. The southern and northern blocks have relatively thin crust (~40-45 km), while the central block has thick crust (~60 km) that most likely was formed by crustal stacking during the Proterozoic amalgamation. The boundaries of the blocks continue into the oceanic crust as two major structural zones of the North-East Atlantic, suggesting that the Fennoscandian amalgamation structures determined the geometry of the ocean opening. We found no evidence for mountain root support or delamination in the areas of high topography that could be related to the mountain formation. Instead, our results suggest that the geometry of the observed features creates conditions favorable for edge-driven convection at the adjacent narrow margins that provides dynamic support for the mountains in Scandinavia.

How to cite: Makushkina, A., Tauzin, B., Miller, M. S., Tkalčić, H., and Thybo, H.: Ocean break-up and related mountain rise controlled by a continentalcrustal root, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6661, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6661, 2022.

EGU22-6819 | Presentations | GD7.2 | Highlight

What are cratons? 

Graham Pearson

The term craton has a complex and confused etymology. Despite originally specifying only strength and stability – of the crust – the term craton has seen widespread use as referring to a region characterised by crustal basement older than 2.5 Ga, despite the fact that some such “cratons” no longer possess their deep lithospheric root and have geological histories that contnue well beyond the Archean/Proterozoic boundary.  Viscous, buoyant lithospheric mantle roots are key to the survival and stability of continental crust. Here we use a revised craton definition (Pearson et al., 2021, Nature), that includes the requirement of a deep (~150 km or greater) and intact lithospheric root, to re-examine extent and character of regions defined as crtons. The revised definition has a nominal requirement for tectonic stability since ~ 1 Ga and recognises that some regions are “modified cratons” – having lost their deep roots, i.e., they may have behaved like cratons for an extended period but subsequently lost much of their stabilising mantle roots during major tectono-thermal events. In other words, despite being long-lived features, cratons are not all permanent. The 150 km lithospheric thickness cut-off provides an optimal match to crustal terranes with 1 Ga timescale stability.

We examine the processes involved in craton ormation and growth. Seismology can help to define the lateral extent of today’s cratons, but a detailed understanding of the regional geological history, kimberlite eruption ages and geothermal conditions is required to evaluate periods of past diamond potential, no-longer evident today. 

How to cite: Pearson, G.: What are cratons?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6819, 2022.

EGU22-6975 | Presentations | GD7.2

Geochronology of the unexposed crust within the Finnish Archean – insights from the Koillismaa Deep Hole in Kuusamo, northeastern Finland 

Matti Kurhila, Teemu Anttilainen, Tuomo Karinen, and Perttu Mikkola

A 3000 m deep hole is being drilled in the Archean Karelian Craton in northeastern Finland in an area where the granitoids dominating the surface have yielded Neoarchean ages (2.8–2.7 Ga). Archean greenstones and Paleoproterozoic dolerites are exposed within the domain as well. The drilling site lies between ca. 2.44 Ga Koillismaa and Näränkävaara mafic layered intrusions. This site was chosen based on gravimetric, magnetic, magnetotelluric and reflection seismic studies, which have revealed a deep anomaly that seems to connect the two mafic layered intrusions. Based on modelling of the geophysical data, the upper boundary of this ca. 60 km long, roughly E-W oriented anomaly lies at approximately 1.5 km depth.

We sampled various rock types from depths of ~40–1600 m for zircon U-Pb dating. The lithologies include leucogranites, tonalite gneiss, hornblende diabase, quartz diorite and granodiorite. Based on observations from the drill core extracted so far, the source of the anomaly is likely to be ultramafic cumulates. Also, presence of Paleoproterozoic granitoids is likely. We will perform the U-Pb analyses during the winter of 2022. The results are expected to confirm the interconnection of the two layered intrusions, clarify the age distribution of the granitoids in the region, and help to decipher the detailed tectonic evolution of the Archean Koillismaa area. 

How to cite: Kurhila, M., Anttilainen, T., Karinen, T., and Mikkola, P.: Geochronology of the unexposed crust within the Finnish Archean – insights from the Koillismaa Deep Hole in Kuusamo, northeastern Finland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6975, 2022.

EGU22-7310 | Presentations | GD7.2

Lithospheric domains of the West and Central African rift system based on Terracing and Cluster analysis 

Estelle Eric Fosso Teguia M, Jörg Ebbing, and Peter Haas

We present results of cluster analysis and geophysical modelling of the West and Central African rift system, where we integrate seismological and satellite data. For a description of lithospheric domains, two different methods based on seismic tomography and satellite gravity data have been used. First, the terracing method using the shape index, has been applied to the gravity field in order to enhance the signal of the large-scale tectonic units. In addition, the K-means cluster method (which is an unsupervised machine learning algorithm) has been applied to a seismic tomography model over the area.

Both models are compared and interpreted towards similarities and differences. The preliminary analysis based on K-means clustering of seismic tomography shows that the West and Central African rift system and its surroundings can be divided into at least three clearly distinct tectonic domains: The Northern part of the Congo craton, the Eastern part of the West African craton and an area in between. In addition, the preliminary analysis of the terracing of satellite gravity data, confirms the location of both the Congo and the West African craton, but also splits the area in between into two known tectonic units, the Southern part of the Saharan meta-craton and the West and Central African rift system in the center.

The cluster analysis is also pointing to differences at crustal and upper mantle level and is the first step towards the evolution of a lithospheric scale model. In the model, we integrate our tectonic domain analysis with the existing seismic Moho depths estimate and other information.

How to cite: Fosso Teguia M, E. E., Ebbing, J., and Haas, P.: Lithospheric domains of the West and Central African rift system based on Terracing and Cluster analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7310, 2022.

EGU22-8441 | Presentations | GD7.2

Detailed Structure of the South American Cratons Using Waveform Tomography 

Bruna Chagas de Melo, Sergei Lebedev, Nicolas Celli, and Marcelo Assumpção

South America presents a diverse tectonic set-up, with an active subduction margin on the western border and a stable continental interior to the east. In the ancient stable part, two main cratonic domains can be separated. The Amazonian, consolidated in Archean-Paleoproterozoic times, and the Brasiliano, marked by Neoproterozoic events related to the West Gondwana assembly. In each domain, geology and geophysical methods separate different cratonic nuclei. However, some nuclei's detailed lateral and vertical extent and even existence are debated.

In seismic tomography, we can define regions of cratonic lithosphere due to the shear wave sensitivity to temperature and composition. However, until recently, seismic data sampling in South America was highly scarce and uneven. Here, we assembled all freely available seismic data globally, with the addition of the FAPESP "3-Basins Thematic Project" temporary network. After selecting all paths crossing the hemisphere centred at South America and performing an automatic outlier rejection, we obtain a massive dataset of ~1 million waveform fits, constraining our final model.

We compute a new S-velocity tomographic model of the upper mantle of South America and surrounding oceans using the Automated Multimode Inversion of surface, S- and multiple S-waves. The increase in the data coverage of the model combined with the optimized tuning of the inversion parameters on the continent allows us to identify for the first time the fine details present in the cratonic structure. We observe that regions of thinner lithosphere inside cratons correspond to areas of rifting in previous tectonic cycles. Inside the boundaries of the Amazon craton, we image two cratonic blocks, separated by the Amazon basin. In this area, an aborted rift system preceded the formation of the Amazon basin in the Neoproterozoic, and rift reactivation occurred with the break-up of Pangea in the Mesozoic. Similarly, in the São Francisco Craton, we image a significantly thinner lithosphere in the Paramirim Aulacogen area, a Paleoproterozoic intracontinental rift system. These observations show that the continental lithospheric topography is closely related to upper mantle dynamic processes. We also image high-velocity lithospheric blocks under sedimentary basins. East of the Amazon craton, we image a high-velocity anomaly beneath the Parnaíba block, and under the Paraná basin the fragmented Paranapanema block lithosphere. Finally, by imaging the boundary of the cratonic units in detail, we can observe that magmatic events and large igneous provinces are distributed around the thick roots of the cratons, where the lithosphere is thinner.

How to cite: Chagas de Melo, B., Lebedev, S., Celli, N., and Assumpção, M.: Detailed Structure of the South American Cratons Using Waveform Tomography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8441, 2022.

EGU22-9048 | Presentations | GD7.2

Modelling petrogenesis of Meso- and Neoarchean andesitic rocks: an example from Singhbhum craton, India 

Avishek Adhikari, Ankita Nandi, Shreya Mukherjee, and Ravikant Vadlamani

Petrogenetic processes of the Archean (>2500 Ma) andesitic rocks are strongly debated because of their distinct geochemical similarities to the modern subduction zone andesites contrast with sparse evidence for Archean lithospheric subduction. Therefore, processes responsible for generation of the andesitic rocks preserved in an Archean craton would potentially place constraints on the Archean geodynamic process. The Western Iron Ore Group (W-IOG) volcano-sedimentary succession in Singhbhum craton is overlain by unmetamorphosed Jagannathpur amygdular volcanics (basaltic andesite – andesite). The W-IOG preserves deformed lower greenschist-facies tholeiitic basalt and calc-alkaline basaltic andesite interlayered with BIF and Fe-Mn-rich phyllite and shale. Previously, petrogenesis of the basaltic andesite in W-IOG was interpreted as having formed in a subduction zone whereas the origin of Jagannathpur volcanics has remained unclear. Therefore, geochemical modelling using trace elements and Sm–Nd geochronology of these basaltic-andesitic rocks were performed to constrain the petrogenetic process and timing of volcanic eruption of these metavolcanic rocks.

Primitive mantle-normalized trace element patterns, chondrite-normalized REE patterns and Nb/Th, Zr/Th ratios of the W-IOG and Jagannathpur basaltic andesite – andesite show enrichment in large ion lithophile elements (LILE), light rare earth elements (LREE), Zr and Th indicating incompatible trace element enrichment in their petrogenesis. The W-IOG tholeiitic basalt is depleted in LILE, LREE, Zr and Th and an absence of Nb-Ta-Ti anomalies that imply a depleted mantle source. The W-IOG basaltic andesite yield an isochron age of 3041±94 Ma (2SD) with Ndi = 0.50875±0.00009, MSWD = 0.62 (n=10) and εNd(T) = +1.1±1.6; whereas the tholeiitic basalt yielded an isochron age of 3050±71 Ma (2SD) with Ndi = 0.50885±0.00010, MSWD = 0.17 (n=10) and εNd(T) = +3.3±1.6. Geochemical modelling indicates that the W-IOG basaltic andesite could have been generated by 20-40% assimilation-fractional crystallization (AFC) (r=0.2, ratio of rate of assimilation to the rate of fractional crystallization) of primitive tholeiitic magma that is derived by 14% partial melting of depleted MORB-type mantle (DMM) under spinel lherzolite depth in an extensional setting. The Jagannathpur basaltic andesite – andesite yielded an Sm-Nd isochron age of 2799±67 Ma (2SD) with Ndi = 0.50895±0.00006, MSWD = 0.36 (n=16) and εNd(T) = -1.1±0.5 and represents one of the oldest Neoarchean intracratonic flood basaltic volcanism. These basaltic andesite – andesite could have been produced by 20-60% AFC (r=0.2) of hybrid magma during lithospheric extension. Generation of the hybrid magma has been modelled by two end member components involving ~18% partial melt of enriched-DMM that interacted with low degree (~5%) partial melt of metasomatised subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM). In addition, our geochemical model results suggest that Meso- to Neoarchean basaltic andesite – andesite rocks in Singhbhum craton were not generated by 1) assimilation of crustal material with primitive tholeiitic magma without fractional crystallization, 2) direct partial melting of different enriched mantle reservoirs (enriched-DMM, EM I, EM II) and mantle wedge peridotite in a subduction environment and 3) partial melting of solely metasomatised SCLM.

How to cite: Adhikari, A., Nandi, A., Mukherjee, S., and Vadlamani, R.: Modelling petrogenesis of Meso- and Neoarchean andesitic rocks: an example from Singhbhum craton, India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9048, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9048, 2022.

EGU22-10000 | Presentations | GD7.2

Effects of multi-extensional tectonics in a cratonic area: 3D numerical modeling and implications for the Congo Basin 

Magdala Tesauro, Francesca Maddaloni, Taras Gerya, Alberto Pastorutti, Carla Braitenberg, and Damien Delvaux

The Congo basin (CB), also named Cuvette Centrale for its bowl shape, occupies a large part of the Congo Craton, which is composed of several amalgamated Archean cratonic blocks, surrounded by Paleo- and Meso- Proterozoic mobile belts. It started to form from a rift phase, during the late Mesoproterozoic (about 1100 Myr). This age, obtained from the interpretation of the almost 3000 km of seismic reflection profiles, is older than that assumed in previous studies and corresponds to a time prior to that of Rodinia assembly. In this tectonic scenario, the CB formation can be related to one of the final phases of the supercontinent Columbia break-up, resulted in several-failed rift. The extensional phase that produced the formation of a very heterogeneous basement, characterized by several basins and highs, NW-SE aligned, could have been likely the effect of the action of a slow multi-divergent velocity (i.e., multi-directional extension) on a cratonic lithosphere, which have induced the initial subsidence of the CB in a weaker part of the craton. The amalgamation of the cratons, composing the basement of the CB, likely left a weak zone in the suture areas, corresponding to the central part of the CB, which could have been more easily deformed, under the influence of tectonic stresses.

We implemented 3D geodynamic models, using the thermomechanical I3ELVIS code to test the hypothesis that the complex structures of the CB basement are the product of a slow multi-divergent velocity, acting on a cratonic area. The results of the numerical models are used to implement forward gravity models to estimate the temporal variations of the gravity effect of the tectonic structures formed during the simulations. Finally, we compared the forward gravity models with the present-day gravity field, in order to demonstrate the consistency between the modelled and observed main structures of the CB. The main results, in terms of topography variations, well reproduce the first-order basement depth variations of the CB. In particular, they produce the formation of an almost circular depressed area in the central part of the model, intersected by two strongly subsided elongated structures, orthogonal each other, whose topography tend to increase with time. The comparison between the forward gravity models and the observed gravity anomalies (gravity disturbance variations), shows that two fields are characterized by a similar alternation of weak positive and strong negative gravity anomalies. However, the modelled anomalies show a smoother trend and higher amplitude, being related to the density and topography variations induced by the upwelling of the asthenosphere, while the observed gravity field is strongly influenced by the sedimentation not simulated in our model.

How to cite: Tesauro, M., Maddaloni, F., Gerya, T., Pastorutti, A., Braitenberg, C., and Delvaux, D.: Effects of multi-extensional tectonics in a cratonic area: 3D numerical modeling and implications for the Congo Basin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10000, 2022.

Lithosphere of cratons and orogens generally reacts differently to tectonic events. Although these differences are mostly clear during the orogenic phases, understanding how they respond to tectonic reactivation is still challenging. Here, we report the first detailed apatite fission-track (AFT) study pinpointing the gradual transition between cratonic and orogenic lithosphere, using the case study of the São Francisco craton (SFC) and the adjacent Araçuaí-West Congo Orogen (AWCO), eastern Brazil. The collision that built the AWCO partially affected the inherited rift structures of the Paramirim Aulacogen, embedded in the São Francisco-Congo paleocontinent. Our data reveal a differential Phanerozoic exhumation between closely interspaced areas affected and not affected by the AWCO deformation. Samples from the SFC present slow and protracted basement cooling during the Phanerozoic, while samples from the orogen display rapid exhumation since the Eocene. An intermediate ~N-S zone of c.40 km shows lower magnitude basement cooling during the Cenozoic, possibly because the propagation of AWCO deformation decreases towards the craton interior. Within the orogen, the Rio Pardo salient is the main reactive structure and probably results from the deformation of a master fault, inherited from its precursor rift. Here, we show how the magnitude of Phanerozoic denudation may be deeply associated with previous events of lithosphere weakening.

How to cite: Fonseca, A. C., Cruz, S., Novo, T., He, Z., and De Grave, J.: Differential exhumation of cratonic and non-cratonic lithosphere revealed by apatite fission-track thermochronology along the edge of the São Francisco craton, eastern Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13111, 2022.

EGU22-376 | Presentations | SM5.6

Three-dimensional electrical conductivity structure of the contiguous US from USArray MT data 

Federico Munch and Alexander Grayver

Knowledge about the electrical conductivity structure of the Earth's interior is a key to understanding its thermo-chemical state and evaluate the impact of space weather events. USMTArray is a high quality data set of magnetotelluric measurements that addresses both of these problems. Covering ~70% of the contiguous United States on a quasi-regular 70 km spaced grid, this unique publicly available data led to the development of several regional 3D electrical conductivity models. However, an inversion of the entire data set demands novel multi-scale imaging approaches that can handle and take advantage of a large range of spatial scales contained in the data. We present a 3D electrical conductivity model of the contiguous United States derived from the inversion of ~1100 USArray magnetotelluric stations. The use of state-of-the-art modeling techniques based on high-order finite-element methods allows us to take into account complex coastline and reconstruct Earth’s conductivity across many scales. The retrieved electrical conductivity variations are in overall agreement with well-known continental structures such as the active tectonic processes within the western United States (e.g., Yellowstone hotspot, Basin and Range extension, and subduction of the Juan de Fuca slab) as well as the presence of deep roots (~250 km) beneath cratons.

How to cite: Munch, F. and Grayver, A.: Three-dimensional electrical conductivity structure of the contiguous US from USArray MT data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-376, 2022.

EGU22-562 | Presentations | SM5.6

Toward a three-dimensional tomographic model of the Pacific upper mantle with full resolution and uncertainties 

Franck Latallerie, Christophe Zaroli, Sophie Lambotte, and Alessia Maggi

Tomographic models suffer from unevenly distributed noisy data and therefore have complicated resolution and uncertainties that can hinder their interpretation. Using linear Backus & Gilbert inversion, it is possible to obtain tomographic models with resolution and uncertainties in a single step. Using such a method, we aim to produce a three-dimensional tomographic model of the Pacific upper mantle from surface-wave data. To linearise the forward problem, we use finite-frequency theory to describe the sensitivity of surface-wave phase-delays to the three-dimensional shear-wave velocity. We build a data-base of phase-delay measurements for surface-waves that cross the Pacific Ocean. We estimate the data uncertainties caused by measurement errors using a multitaper technique and those caused by poor knowledge of the seismic source and crust by a Monte-Carlo method. Using the Backus & Gilbert approach, the phase-delay dataset, and the data uncertainty estimates, we obtain a model of the shear-wave velocity of the Pacific upper mantle together with its three-dimensional resolution and uncertainties. These allow us to discuss, using robust statistical arguments, the existence and the three-dimensional organisation of structures we expect to see in the Pacific upper mantle, such as plume-like upwellings or small-scale sub-lithospheric convections.

How to cite: Latallerie, F., Zaroli, C., Lambotte, S., and Maggi, A.: Toward a three-dimensional tomographic model of the Pacific upper mantle with full resolution and uncertainties, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-562, 2022.

EGU22-1567 | Presentations | SM5.6

LitMod3D_4inv: Multi-observable and multi-scale geophysical inversions for the physical state of the Earth. 

Ilya Fomin, Juan Afonso, and Constanza Manassero

Characterising the physical state of the Earth's interior with high resolution requires the joint inversion of complementary geophysical datasets. LitMod3D_4inv is a method/software that allows regional and continental scale joint inversions within a probabilistic framework for the 3D thermochemical structure of the lithosphere and upper mantle. The software can simultaneously invert gravity anomalies, geoid height, gravity gradients, Love and Rayleigh surface-wave dispersion curves, receiver functions, body-wave travel times, surface heat flow, absolute elevation and magnetotelluric data, or any combination of them. The result is a collection of Earth models (a probabilistic distribution) with exceptional explicative power and robust estimates for uncertainties.

We use equations of state and Gibbs free energy minimisation routines to produce self-consistent sets of the seismic velocities, densities, and other properties from the actual parameters (unknowns) of the inversion – mantle chemical compositions, thermal profiles, and properties of the crustal layers (thickness, reference densities, Vp/Vs). The code relies on highly-optimised solvers for gravity, seismic, and magnetotelluric forward problems and multi-level hybrid parallel architecture to make use of multiple interacting markov chains. The modular structure of the code allows for extending the set of solvers to include new observables or to implement new Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms.

In this presentation we will discuss recent developments in the LitMod3D_4inv suite and illustrate their performance with real examples in eastern Canada, in southern and central Africa, and north eastern Australia.

How to cite: Fomin, I., Afonso, J., and Manassero, C.: LitMod3D_4inv: Multi-observable and multi-scale geophysical inversions for the physical state of the Earth., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1567, 2022.

EGU22-1920 | Presentations | SM5.6

Imaging oceanic basins with wave equation and radiative transfer models 

Chiara Nardoni, Luca De Siena, Fabio Cammarano, Fabrizio Magrini, and Elisabetta Mattei

When seismic information is used to map Earth structures, a primary challenge is modelling the response of seismic wavefields to strong lateral variations in medium properties. These variations are especially relevant across oceanic basins with mixed continental-oceanic crust and including magmatic systems. These highly-scattering and absorption media produce stochastic signatures that are hard to separate from complex coherent reverberations due to shallow Moho. The discrimination between these two effects is fundamental for improving full-waveform techniques when imaging oceanic basins at regional and global scales. Here, we present a joint tomographic and modelling approach focusing on the ~1 Hz frequency band, where seismic scattering and attenuation mechanisms are predominantly resonant. Firstly, we image late-time coda attenuation as a marker of seismic absorption across the Italian peninsula and the Tyrrhenian Sea. Regional-scale data provide the ideal benchmark to explore the potential of attenuation imaging using radiative-transfer-derived sensitivity kernels in a mixed continental-oceanic crust. Then, we explore the response of seismic wavefield to structural variations combining coda-attenuation imaging with simulations based on radiative transfer and wave-equation modelling. The results provide evidence of intra-crustal reverberations and energy leakage in the mantle, finally being able to map Moho depths with regional earthquakes. This work is an ideal forward model of seismic wavefields recorded across the oceanic crust for future full-waveform inversions and imaging of crustal discontinuities.

How to cite: Nardoni, C., De Siena, L., Cammarano, F., Magrini, F., and Mattei, E.: Imaging oceanic basins with wave equation and radiative transfer models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1920, 2022.

EGU22-2459 | Presentations | SM5.6

Surface-wave tomography of the South-East Asia by joint inversion of Rayleigh and Love phase velocities from seismic ambient noise and teleseismic earthquakes 

Fabrizio Magrini, Luca De Siena, Simone Pilia, Nicholas Rawlinson, and Boris Kaus

South-East Asia hosts the largest and most complicated subduction system of our planet, associated with extensive volcanism and seismicity. Obtaining high-resolution seismic images of South-East Asia can provide important constraints on the lateral variations of physical parameters such as density, composition, temperature, and viscosity of this dynamic patchwork. In turn, this has relevant implications on our ability to forecast its geodynamic evolution by numerical modeling. In this study, we join all the publicly-available seismic data distributed across the Malay Peninsula, Sumatra, Java, Sulawesi, South Borneo, and North Australia (amounting of 468 broad-band seismic receivers) with the continuous seismograms from 70 receivers recently installed in North Borneo, resulting in an unprecedented seismic coverage of the region.
We first use such data to extract Rayleigh and Love phase velocities based on both seismic ambient noise and teleseismic earthquakes. Overall, we retrieve 14,036 Rayleigh- and 12,005 Love-wave dispersion curves, covering surface-wave periods between 3 and 150 s and sensitive to both the shallow crust and the upper mantle. We then invert the dispersion curves for phase-velocity maps at different periods, using a linearized-inversion algorithm based on the ray theory with a roughness damping constraint. In doing so, we adopt an adaptive parameterization, allowing for a finer resolution of the resulting maps in the areas characterized by a relatively high density of measurements. At relatively short periods (<20 s), the phase-velocity maps are characterized by strong lateral heterogeneities. We find, for example, relatively low velocities in correspondence of the Central- and South-Sumatra Basin, ascribed to thick sedimentary layers, and higher velocities in the (adjacent) Barisan Mountains. Low velocities also characterize a large region approximately centered onto the Merapi volcano (Central Java), the Mentawai islands (in correspondence of the Mentawai Fault System), the Sahul Shelf (including the East Timor island), and the marine region between east Borneo and Sulawesi. Relatively high velocities are found below the Banda Sea. The amplitude of such lateral variations quickly decreases at larger periods and, among the most pronounced features, we observe relatively low velocities in the north-east of Borneo (as opposed to its south-western part), and high velocities in the Celebes Sea (north of the North-Sulawesi Trench).
At the time of writing, we are planning to translate the phase-velocity maps thus retrieved into shear-wave velocity (Vs) as a function of depth. Specifically, we plan to extract one Rayleigh- and one Love-wave phase-velocity profile for each grid cell constituting our phase-velocity maps, and (non-linearly) jointly invert them for Vs using the neighbourhood algorithm. The resulting 3-D tomographic model will thus be interpreted in light of the existing literature on the study area, involving (but not limited to) geodynamic and geologic models, geophysical, geochemical, and geodetic observations.

How to cite: Magrini, F., De Siena, L., Pilia, S., Rawlinson, N., and Kaus, B.: Surface-wave tomography of the South-East Asia by joint inversion of Rayleigh and Love phase velocities from seismic ambient noise and teleseismic earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2459, 2022.

EGU22-2686 | Presentations | SM5.6

Scattering and Absorption Imaging of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, northern Turkey 

Panayiota Sketsiou, David Cornwell, and Luca De Siena

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a right-lateral, strike-slip fault in the northern part of the Anatolian peninsula. It is estimated to have a length of up to 1500 km, extending westwards between the Karliova Triple Junction, where it nucleates, to the Aegean Sea. In the west and close to the Sea of Marmara, the NAF splays into northern (NNAF) and southern (SNAF) strands. The splay of the western part of the NAF separates the area into three primary terranes: the Istanbul Zone (north of the northern strand), the Armutlu-Almacik Block (between the two strands of the fault) and the Sakarya Zone (south of the southern strand).

There have been a series of high-magnitude earthquakes along the NAF since the 1930s, migrating from east to west. In order to investigate the western part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), which is the most seismically active at the moment, the Dense Array for North Anatolia (DANA) temporary seismic network was deployed for 18 months between 2012 and 2013. A set of local earthquakes, recorded by DANA, were utilised to study the 2D scattering and coda attenuation structure in the western NAFZ, between 1 and 18 Hz. P-wave arrival times were manually picked and the events were re-located using the Non-Linear Location software. Peak-delay travel times were calculated as a measure of forward scattering, and the exponential decay of the coda wave envelopes was used to invert for the absorption structure using multiple scattering sensitivity kernels.

The obtained models are 2D averages of the first 10-15 km of the crust, where the majority of the seismic activity is located and they have been compared to recent geophysical studies in the same area. The scattering structure, between 1 and 6 Hz, highlights the three main tectonic units in the area. The absorption structure is generally more heterogeneous than the scattering structure, with the overall absorption decreasing as the frequency increases. The lithological variations and heterogeneity between and within the three terranes of the area, arising from the complex tectonic history of the region, are believed to be the main reasons for the scattering and absorption observations made. The high absorption zones observed along the two branches of the fault, and especially the southern branch, is a very important finding, as the signature of the southern branch in geophysical studies is often unclear.

How to cite: Sketsiou, P., Cornwell, D., and De Siena, L.: Scattering and Absorption Imaging of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, northern Turkey, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2686, 2022.

EGU22-3257 | Presentations | SM5.6

Using K-Means Clustering to Compare Adjoint Waveform Tomography Models of California and Nevada 

Claire Doody, Arthur Rodgers, Christian Boehm, Michael Afanasiev, Lion Krischer, Andrea Chiang, and Nathan Simmons

Full waveform inversion models by adjoint methods represent the most detailed seismic tomography models currently available for waveform simulations. However, the influence of starting models on final inversion results is rarely studied due to computational expense. To study this influence, we present three adjoint waveform tomography models of California and Nevada using three different starting models:  the SPiRaL global model (Simmons et al., 2021), the CSEM_NA model (Krischer et al., 2018), and the WUS256 model (Rodgers et al., 2021). Each model uses the same dataset of 103 events between magnitudes 4.5 and 6.5 that occurred from January 1, 2000 to October 31st, 2020. For each event, 175-475 stations record data, creating dense path coverage over California. The model iterations are computed using Salvus. We begin by  running iterations for each starting model at three period bands: 30-100 seconds, 25-100 seconds, and 20-100 seconds. For each period band, we run iterations until the average misfit for all events is no longer reduced; over all period bands, we run more than 55 iterations and see misfit reductions of up to 40% in some period bands. Each model shows velocity anomalies of up to 20%, but the difference in VS values between the models can be significant. Most of these differences seem to correlate with small-scale differences in the starting models. To test whether these differences between the models could affect the interpretation of their results, we utilize k-means clustering to analyze the similarities in large-scale structure in all three models (e.g. Lekic and Romanowicz, 2011). We separate each model into a crustal layer (0-30km depth) and uppermost mantle layer (30-150km), then run a k-means clustering algorithm on absolute Vs wavespeeds and anisotropy [(Vsh/Vsv)^2] separately. We show that regardless of the differences seen on visual inspection, all three models can resolve tectonic-scale structures equally.

 

This work was supported by LLNL Laboratory Directed Research and Development project 20-ERD-008. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-830615.

How to cite: Doody, C., Rodgers, A., Boehm, C., Afanasiev, M., Krischer, L., Chiang, A., and Simmons, N.: Using K-Means Clustering to Compare Adjoint Waveform Tomography Models of California and Nevada, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3257, 2022.

EGU22-3507 | Presentations | SM5.6

Seismotomographic structure of the central zone of Kamchatka suprasubduction complex according to the dense seismological networks data 

Natalia Bushenkova, Olga Bergal-Kuvikas, Evgeny I. Gordeev, Danila Chebrov, Ivan Koulakov, Ilyas Abkadyrov, Andrey Jakovlev, Tatiana Stupina, Angelika Novgorodova, and Svetlana Droznina

The strongest earthquakes and the largest explosive eruptions are confined to plate convergent boundaries. Many geodynamics aspects attract the scientific community's attention since answers to the most important questions cannot be obtained without reliable information about the deep structure. Geophysical studies of the crust and mantle provide essential information for lithospheric blocks interactions, mantle convection and fluid migration. This data is necessary to identify reliable criteria for assessing volcanic and seismic risk.

The studied area is central Kamchatka, where the cities of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Elizovo, and Vilyuchinks are located. It includes territory from the Gorely and Mutnovsky volcanoes in the south to the Bakening volcano and the Verkhneavachinskaya caldera in the north. It extends from the eastern to the western peninsula coasts. The study area includes the Avachinskaya group of volcanoes, the Vilyuchinsky and Zhupanovsky volcanoes, Karymshina caldera and a number of monogenic cinder cones. This region is assumed to be located at a transition between two principle different subduction regimes in the north and south of Kamchatka. Previous studies are sparse and have poor resolution due to the low density and uneven distribution of seismic stations.

In this study, we used a large dataset recorded by a new dense temporary network deployed in 2019-2020, which was specially designed for performing high-quality seismic tomographic studies of the suprasubduction complex structure (crust and upper mantle) beneath central Kamchatka. This dataset was supplemented by data recorded by (1) the temporary network operated on the Avachinskaya group of volcanoes in 2018-2019 and (2) the permanent stations Kamchatka branch of the Federal Research Center of the GS RAS. The seismic model is based on the data from 2687 local earthquakes that occurred during the operation of the mentioned temporary networks and were recorded by 134 regional stationary and temporary stations. In the tomographic inversion we used 59088 travel times of P-waves and 34697 of S-waves.

The new model makes it possible to trace zones of fluid and melt release from the slab, their migration in the mantle wedge and crust, and allows assessing their role in feeding the magmatic systems. Volcanoes of the Avachinskaya group have a common magma plumbing system at a depth more than 50 km, which could be traced from the slab. The Vilyuchinsky volcano feds through an intermediate large magma chamber located at a depth of 30-55 km, which is also related to the feeding of the Bolshebannaya hydrothermal system situated to the west. This large chamber fed from a conduit originated on the slab at more than 70 km depth. The feeding system of the Gorely and Mutnovsky volcanoes is traced to the slab at depths of more than 100 km.

This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project No. 22-27-00215) and the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (megagrant No. 14.W03.31.0033). 

How to cite: Bushenkova, N., Bergal-Kuvikas, O., Gordeev, E. I., Chebrov, D., Koulakov, I., Abkadyrov, I., Jakovlev, A., Stupina, T., Novgorodova, A., and Droznina, S.: Seismotomographic structure of the central zone of Kamchatka suprasubduction complex according to the dense seismological networks data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3507, 2022.

EGU22-3755 | Presentations | SM5.6

Receiver Function analysis of noise reduced OBS data recorded at the ultra-slow spreading Knipovich Ridge 

Theresa Rein, Zahra Zali, Frank Krüger, and Vera Schlindwein

Ultra-slow spreading ridges are characterized by huge volcanic complexes which are separated by up to 150 km long amagmatic segments. The mechanisms controlling the ultra-slow spreading ridges are not yet fully understood. With the aim to better understand the spreading mechanisms and the flow of the magma beneath the volcanic complexes an ocean-bottom array has been installed along a segment of the ultra-slow spreading Knipovich Ridge in the Greenland sea. The array consists of 23 LOBSTER-type ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) from the DEPAS pool and 5 LOBSTERs from the Institute of Geophysics of the Polish Academy of Sciences. We aim to constrain the crustal and mantle structure beneath the segment of the Knipovich Ridge by using receiver functions calculated from teleseismic events.

Seismic data, recorded on the ocean bottom, are highly contaminated by different noise sources, which are dominating at frequencies below 1 Hz. During the experiment the DEPAS-LOBSTERs were equipped with a MCS recorder and a Güralp CMG-40T seismometer (changed now to 6D6 recorder and Trillium Compact seismometer). This characteristic design introduces electronic noise at selected stations at frequencies below 0.2 Hz. Recently head-buoy-strumming has been identified as additional noise source at frequencies above 0.5 Hz during tidal currents. Hence, most teleseismic signals are masked by the high noise level, especially on the horizontal components. However, a good signal to noise ratio on both, the vertical and horizontal components is crucial for seismological analysis, especially the receiver function method. Applying the HPS noise reduction algorithm on OBS data, as shown by Zali et al (submitted in 2021), allows to separate percussive or transient signals, such as the teleseismic earthquake from more harmonic and monochromatic signals, such as most of the noise generated at the ocean bottom.

The results of the HPS noise reduction algorithm processing of selected KNIPAS station data show a significantly reduced noise level below 1 Hz on all seismogram components, especially on the horizontals. Here, the signal-to-noise ratio increased by up to 3.2-3.7 (average by 1.4-1.6). The increased signal-to-noise ratio on the noise reduced data allows for more reliable receiver function results and their interpretation. Here, we show the reduced noise level on the OBS data and compare the receiver function results calculated from original data with the results from noise-reduced data.

How to cite: Rein, T., Zali, Z., Krüger, F., and Schlindwein, V.: Receiver Function analysis of noise reduced OBS data recorded at the ultra-slow spreading Knipovich Ridge, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3755, 2022.

EGU22-3850 | Presentations | SM5.6

Joint Geophysical and Petrological Inversion to Image the Lithosphere and Asthenosphere Beneath Ireland and Britain 

Emma Chambers, Raffaele Bonadio, Sergei Lebedev, Javier Fullea, Duygu Kiyan, Christopher Bean, Brian O'Reilly, Patrick Meere, Meysam Rezaeifar, Gaurav Tomar, and Tao Ye and the DIG Team

DIG (De-risking Ireland’s Geothermal Potential) integrates inter-disciplinary and multi-scale datasets in order to investigate Ireland’s low-enthalpy geothermal energy potential. Recent deployments of broadband seismic stations and the output surface-wave measurements yield dense data sampling of the crust and mantle beneath Ireland and neighbouring Great Britain, which can be used to determine the lithospheric and asthenospheric structure at a regional scale. In addition, we integrate magnetotelluric measurements, forming the foundations for a region-scale, multi-parameter modelling of the thermal and compositional structure of the lithosphere.

In this study, we utilise the large seismic dataset and extract Rayleigh and Love-wave phase velocity dispersion curves, measured for pairs of stations across Ireland and Great Britain. The measurements were performed using two methods with complementary period ranges; the teleseismic cross-correlation method and the waveform inversion method, yielding a 4-500 s period range for the dispersion curves. The joint analysis of Rayleigh and Love measurements constrains the isotropic-average shear-wave velocity, relatable to temperature and composition, providing essential constraints on the thermal structure of the region’s lithosphere. We demonstrate this by inverting the data using an integrated joint geophysical-petrological thermodynamically self-consistent approach (Fullea et al., GJI 2021), where seismic velocities, electrical conductivity, and density are dependent on mineralogy, temperature, composition, water content, and the presence of melt. The multi-parameter models produced by the integrated inversions fit the surface-wave and other data, revealing the temperatures and geothermal gradients within the crust and mantle, which will be used for future geothermal exploration and utilisation.

The project is funded by the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland under the SEAI Research, Development & Demonstration Funding Programme 2019 (grant number 19/RDD/522) and by the Geological Survey of Ireland.

How to cite: Chambers, E., Bonadio, R., Lebedev, S., Fullea, J., Kiyan, D., Bean, C., O'Reilly, B., Meere, P., Rezaeifar, M., Tomar, G., and Ye, T. and the DIG Team: Joint Geophysical and Petrological Inversion to Image the Lithosphere and Asthenosphere Beneath Ireland and Britain, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3850, 2022.

EGU22-4037 | Presentations | SM5.6

Ray theoretical investigations using matching pursuits 

Volker Michel, Naomi Schneider, Karin Sigloch, and Eoghan Totten

The three-dimensional structure of the Earth's interior shapes its geomagnetic and gravity fields, and can thus be constrained by observing these fields. 3-D Earth structure also causes seismological observables to deviate from those predicted for approximated, spherically symmetrical reference models. Travel time tomography is the inverse problem that uses these observed differences to constrain the 3-D structure of the interior.
On the planetary scale, i.e. in a spherical geometry, this linearized inverse problem has been parameterized with a variety of basis systems, either global (e.g. spherical harmonics) or local (e.g. finite elements). The Geomathematics Group Siegen has developed alternative approximation methods for certain applications from the geosciences: the Inverse Problem Matching Pursuits (IPMPs). These methods combine different basis systems by calculating an approximation in a so-called best basis, which is chosen iteratively from a so-called dictionary, an intentionally overcomplete set of diverse trial functions. In each iteration, the choice of the next best basis element reduces the Tikhonov functional. A particular numerical expertise has been gained for applications on spheres or balls. Hence, the methods were successfully applied to, for instance, the downward continuation of the gravitational potential as well as the MEG-/EEG-problem from medical imaging.
Our aim is to remodel the IPMPs for travel time tomography. This includes developing the data-dependent operator, deciding for specific trial functions and applying the operator to them. We also have to define termination criteria and develop the regularization in theory and practice. We introduce the IPMPs and show results from our remodelling.

How to cite: Michel, V., Schneider, N., Sigloch, K., and Totten, E.: Ray theoretical investigations using matching pursuits, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4037, 2022.

EGU22-4477 | Presentations | SM5.6

Optimal resolution tomography with error tracking and the structure of the crust and upper mantle beneath Ireland and Britain 

Raffaele Bonadio, Sergei Lebedev, Thomas Meier, Pierre Arroucau, Andrew J. Schaeffer, Andrea Licciardi, Matthew R. Agius, Clare Horan, Louise Collins, Brian M. O'Really, Peter W. Readman, and Ireland Array Working Group

The maximum achievable resolution of a tomographic model varies spatially and depends on the data sampling and errors in the data. The significant and continual measurement-error decreases in seismology and data-redundancy increases have reduced the impact of random errors on tomographic models. Systematic errors, however, are resistant to data redundancy and their effect on the model is difficult to predict; often this results in models dominated by noise if the target resolution is too high. Here, we develop a method for finding the optimal resolving length at every point, implementing it for surface-wave tomography. As in the Backus-Gilbert method, every solution at a point results from an entire-system inversion, and the model error is reduced by increasing the model-parameter averaging. The key advantage of our method consists in its direct, empirical evaluation of the posterior model error at a point.

We first measure interstation phase velocities at simultaneously recording station pairs and compute phase-velocity maps at densely, logarithmically spaced periods. Numerous versions of the maps with varying smoothness are then computed, ranging from very rough to very smooth. Phase-velocity curves extracted from the maps at every point can be inverted for shear-velocity (VS) profiles. As we show, errors in these phase-velocity curves increase nearly monotonically with the map roughness. We evaluate the error by isolating the roughness of the phase-velocity curve that cannot be explained by any Earth structure and determine the optimal resolving length at a point such that the error of the local phase-velocity curve is below a threshold.

A 3-D VS model is then computed by the inversion of the composite phase-velocity maps with an optimal resolution at every point. Importantly, the optimal resolving length does not scale with the density of the data coverage: some of the best-sampled locations display relatively low lateral resolution, due to systematic errors in the data.

We apply this method to image the lithosphere and underlying mantle beneath Ireland and Britain. Our very large data produces a total of 11238 inter-station dispersion curves, spanning a very broad total period range (4–500 s), yielding unprecedented data coverage of the area and providing state-of-the-art regional resolution from the crust to the deep asthenosphere. Our tomography reveals pronounced, previously unknown variations in the lithospheric thickness beneath Ireland and Britain, with implications for their Caledonian assembly and for the mechanisms of the British Tertiary Igneous Province magmatism.

How to cite: Bonadio, R., Lebedev, S., Meier, T., Arroucau, P., Schaeffer, A. J., Licciardi, A., Agius, M. R., Horan, C., Collins, L., O'Really, B. M., Readman, P. W., and Working Group, I. A.: Optimal resolution tomography with error tracking and the structure of the crust and upper mantle beneath Ireland and Britain, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4477, 2022.

EGU22-4784 | Presentations | SM5.6

Seismic and multi-parameter 1D reference models of the upper mantle 

Chiara Civiero, Sergei Lebedev, Yihe Xu, Raffaele Bonadio, and Javier Fullea

1D reference Earth models are widely used by the geoscience community and include global, regional and tectonic-type reference models. Seismic 1D profiles are used routinely as reference in imaging studies. Multi-parameter models can also include density, composition, attenuation, lithospheric thickness and other parameters, of interest in a broad range of studies. The recent growth in the number of seismic stations worldwide has yielded a dramatic increase in the global sampling of the Earth with seismic data and presents an opportunity for an improvement in the global and tectonic-type reference models. Concurrent developments in computational petrology have provided methods to constrain self-consistent multi-parameter Earth models with seismic and other data. Here, we use a large global dataset of Love and Rayleigh fundamental mode, phase-velocity measurements, performed with multimode waveform inversion using all available broadband data since the 1990s, and compute phase-velocity maps at densely spaced periods in a broad, 17-310 s period range. We then invert the phase velocity curves averaged globally and across 8 tectonic environments (4 continental: Archean cratons, stable platforms, recently active continents, and active rift zones; and 4 oceanic: old, intermediate and young oceans, and backarc regions) for 1D reference models of the upper mantle. For each tectonic type, a multi-parameter 1D model is computed in a petrological inversion, where the lithospheric thickness and temperature at the bottom of the lithosphere and in the underlying mantle are the inversion parameters, and steady-state conductive lithospheric geotherms are assumed. Lithospheric and asthenospheric compositions are taken from geochemical databases, and seismic velocities, densities and Q are computed from composition, temperature and pressure using computational petrology and thermodynamic databases. The models quantify the age dependence of the lithospheric thickness and temperature in continents and oceans. Radial anisotropy is also determined and shows notable variations with depth and with tectonic environments. For most tectonic types, the smooth, accurate observed phase velocity curves can be fit by the 1D models with a misfit under 0.1-0.2% of the phase velocity value. Additionally, we compute models with minimal complexity of seismic velocity structure, also fitting the data but without a sub-lithospheric low-velocity zone as in the thermal multi-parameter models. These purely seismic models, similar in appearance to ak135, do not correspond to realistic geotherms but provide useful reference for seismic imaging studies in different environments.

How to cite: Civiero, C., Lebedev, S., Xu, Y., Bonadio, R., and Fullea, J.: Seismic and multi-parameter 1D reference models of the upper mantle, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4784, 2022.

EGU22-4870 | Presentations | SM5.6

Shear-velocity structure and dynamics beneath the Central Mediterranean inferred from seismic surface waves 

Matthew Agius, Fabrizio Magrini, Giovanni Diaferia, Emanuel Kastle, Fabio Cammarano, Claudio Faccenna, Francesca Funiciello, and Mark van der Meijde

The evolution of the Sicily Channel Rift Zone (SCRZ), located south of the Central Mediterranean, is thought to accommodate the regional tectonic stresses of the Calabrian subduction system. It is unclear whether the rifting of the SCRZ is passive from far-field extensional stresses or active from mantle upwelling beneath. To map the structure and dynamics of the region, we measure Rayleigh- and Love-wave phase velocities from ambient seismic noise and invert for an isotropic 3-D shear-velocity and radial anisotropic model. Variations of crustal S-velocities coincide with topographic and tectonic features: slow under high elevation, fast beneath deep sea. The Tyrrhenian Sea has a <10 km thin crust, followed by the SCRZ (∼20 km). The thickest crust is beneath the Apennine-Maghrebian mountains (∼50 km). Areas experiencing extension and intraplate volcanism have positive crustal radial anisotropy (VSH>VSV); areas experiencing compression and subduction-related volcanism have negative anisotropy (VSH<VSV). The crustal anisotropy across the Channel shows the extent of the SW-NE extension. Beneath the Tyrrhenian Sea, we find very low sub-Moho S-velocities. In contrast, the SCRZ has a thin mantle lithosphere underlain by a low-velocity zone. The lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary rises from 40-60 km depth beneath Sicily and Tunisia to ∼33 km beneath the SCRZ. Upper mantle, negative radial anisotropy beneath the SCRZ suggests vertical mantle flow. We hypothesize a more active mantle upwelling beneath the rift than previously thought from an interplay between poloidal and toroidal fluxes related to the Calabrian slab, which in turn produces uplift at the surface and induces volcanism.

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 843696.

How to cite: Agius, M., Magrini, F., Diaferia, G., Kastle, E., Cammarano, F., Faccenna, C., Funiciello, F., and van der Meijde, M.: Shear-velocity structure and dynamics beneath the Central Mediterranean inferred from seismic surface waves, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4870, 2022.

EGU22-5885 | Presentations | SM5.6

Seismic Attenuation of India, Himalaya and Tibet using Lg-coda waves 

Dibyajyoti Chaudhuri, Ayon Ghosh, Shubham Sharma, and Supriyo Mitra

We present maps to show the lateral variation of Lg coda attenuation at 1-Hz across India, Himalaya and Tibet. We use vertical component waveforms from regional earthquakes (epicentral distance<3500 km and Mw>5) recorded by the IISER-K seismological network, ones operated by the Indian Meteorological Department, and data acquired from the IRIS-DMC. Lg-coda waves are modeled as single back-scattered energy, sampling an ellipsoidal volume. The attenuation of Lg-coda is quantified using the quality factor (Q), which is frequency dependent. We use the stacked spectral ratio (SSR) method to calculate the single-trace Lg-coda Q at 1 Hz (Qo) and its frequency dependence (η). A moving-window stack of scaled-logarithmic ratios of spectral amplitudes, for window length of 25.6 s and different central lapse time, is computed for each frequency. Through a linear regression of log (stacked spectral ratio) and log (frequency), using least-squares fitting, we obtain (1-η) and log(Qo), respectively. Lg-coda is selected in a frequency range of 0.2-5 Hz, with coda window starting at 3.15 km/s. Our total coda window lengths vary between 140 s to 780 s. Our preliminary results show low Q values (~200-400) in the Eastern and Western Himalaya - possibly because of scattering of seismic energy from structural heterogeneities. Most of the Indian Shield and the intraplate regions of Shillong Plateau and Brahmaputra valley are characterized by intermediate to high Q values (~600-800), indicating fairly efficient propagation of seismic energy. Intermediate values of Q (~400-500) occur in the Indo-Burman Ranges which may be due to the cold elastic subducting oceanic lithosphere. Patches of low Q in the Tibetan Plateau (~200) are possibly the result of high temperatures and partial melts present in the crust. Our results show how the nature of the Indian Plate changes as we go from an active continent-continent collision zone in the north to eastward subduction of transitional material at the Indo-Burma ranges. Our plots of Qo and η as a function of epicentral distance, coda length and magnitude show no systematic variations.



How to cite: Chaudhuri, D., Ghosh, A., Sharma, S., and Mitra, S.: Seismic Attenuation of India, Himalaya and Tibet using Lg-coda waves, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5885, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5885, 2022.

EGU22-6235 | Presentations | SM5.6

Exploring the Earth's mantle structure based on joint gravimetric and seismometric group-velocity dispersion curves of Rayleigh waves 

Kamila Karkowska, Monika Wilde-Piórko, Przemysław Dykowski, Marcin Sękowski, and Marcin Polkowski

Gravimetric data show excellent capabilities in long-period seismology. Tidal gravimeters can detect surface waves of periods even up to 500-600 s, while a typical broad-band seismic sensor, due to its mechanical limitation, can detect them only up to the periods of 200-300 s. Consequently, gravimetric data can complement seismic recordings for longer periods, depending on what seismometer the station is equipped with and what seismometer’s cut-off period is. A superconducting gravimeter can act as a single-dimension (only vertical component) of a very broad-band seismometer. 

We selected over a dozen stations worldwide with co-located typical broad-band seismic sensors and superconducting gravimeters. A time series from broad-band seismometers have been downloaded from Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) database. The raw gravimetric data (1-Hz or 1-min) are available in the International Geodynamics and Earth Tide Service (IGETS) database. Some of the data were made available courtesy of the station’s operators. 

This study presents a joint analysis of the gravimetric and seismometric data to determine group-velocity dispersion curves of Rayleigh surface waves. We created a database of recordings of earthquakes for all stations and instruments. Following, we calculated the individual group-velocity dispersion curves of fundamental-mode Rayleigh waves. Simultaneous seismic and gravity recordings at the same location allow exploring a broader response for incoming seismic waves. In this way, one joint group-velocity dispersion curve of Rayleigh surface waves for a broader range of periods has been estimated for all stations. All curves were then inverted by linear inversion and Monte Carlo methods to calculate a distribution of shear-wave seismic velocity with depth in the Earth’s mantle.    

This work was done within the research project No. 2017/27/B/ST10/01600 financed from the Polish National Science Centre funds.

How to cite: Karkowska, K., Wilde-Piórko, M., Dykowski, P., Sękowski, M., and Polkowski, M.: Exploring the Earth's mantle structure based on joint gravimetric and seismometric group-velocity dispersion curves of Rayleigh waves, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6235, 2022.

EGU22-6399 | Presentations | SM5.6

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Inversion of Surface Wave Dispersion to Evaluate their Potential to Constrain the Density Distribution in the Earth. 

Ariane Lanteri, Lars Gebraad, Andrea Zunino, and Andreas Fichtner

We present a probabilistic approach to constrain the density distribution in the Earth based on surface wave dispersion. Despite its outstanding importance in studies of the Earth’s thermo-chemical state and dynamics, 3D density variations remain poorly known, thereby posing one of the major challenges in geophysics.

Since the sensitivity of most seismic data to density is small compared to sensitivity with respect to seismic velocities, regularisation in traditional deterministic inversion tends to bias the recovered density image significantly. To avoid this issue, we propose to solve a regularisation-free Bayesian inference problem using the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm.

In the interest of simplicity, we consider anisotropic stratified media, where dispersion curves and corresponding sensitivity kernels can be computed semi-analytically. Exploiting derivative information for efficient sampling, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo approximates the posterior probability density of all model parameters, namely the P-wave velocities vPV and vPH , the S-wave velocities vSV and vSH , the anisotropy parameter η, and, of course, density ρ.

The proposed method forms the foundation of an open-source tool box that can be used to assess the unbiased ability of surface wave dispersion data, characterised in terms of frequency and modal content, to constrain density variations and their trade-offs with other Earth model parameters.

How to cite: Lanteri, A., Gebraad, L., Zunino, A., and Fichtner, A.: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Inversion of Surface Wave Dispersion to Evaluate their Potential to Constrain the Density Distribution in the Earth., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6399, 2022.

EGU22-6428 | Presentations | SM5.6

Interrogating the volume of the East Irish Sea sedimentary basins using probabilistic tomographic results 

Xuebin Zhao, Andrew Curtis, and Xin Zhang
The ultimate goal of a scientific investigation is usually to find answers to specific questions: what is the size of a subsurface body? Does a hypothesised subsurface feature exist? Which competing model is most consistent with observations? The answers to these and many other questions are low-dimensional, yet must often be inferred from high-dimensional models and data. To address the questions, existing information is reviewed, an experiment is designed and performed to acquire new data, and the most likely answer is estimated. Typically the answer is interpreted from geological and geophysical data or models, but is biased because only one particular forward function (model-data relationship) is considered, one inversion method is applied, and because human interpretation is a biased process. Interrogation theory provides a systematic way to answer specific questions using statistically unbiased estimators. It combines forward, design, inverse and decision theory, and focuses them to maximise information on the space of possible answers.

This study estimates the volume of the East Irish Sea sedimentary basins in the UK using 3D shear wave speed models derived from surface wave dispersion inversions. In order to answer volume-related questions, it is first necessary to define a target function that translates any (high-dimensional) model into (1-dimensional) volumes of interest. A key revelation of this study is that while the majority of computation may be spent solving inverse problems probabilistically, much of the skill and human effort involved in answering real-world questions may be spent defining and calculating those target function values in a clear and unbiased manner.

How to cite: Zhao, X., Curtis, A., and Zhang, X.: Interrogating the volume of the East Irish Sea sedimentary basins using probabilistic tomographic results, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6428, 2022.

EGU22-6780 | Presentations | SM5.6

An unusually long eclogitic lower crustal body imaged by the Korean nuclear explosion 

Xiaoqing Zhang, Hans Thybo, Irina M. Artemieva, Tao Xu, and Zhiming Bai

The Sino-Korean Craton (SKC), which consists of the North China Craton (NCC) in China and North Korea, is one of the oldest cratons on earth. Since the Paleozoic, the SKC has experienced multiple subductions of the peripheral plates and the northeastern SKC is located in a junction area. Its characteristics are being investigated by geophysical and geochemical methods, which provides insights into the formation and subsequent evolution of the continental lithosphere.

We interpret the crustal structure of the northeastern SKC with the refraction/wide-angle reflection perspective using North Korean Nuclear Explosion sources recorded by 40 permanent and 7 temporary broadband stations, which were operated by the China Earthquake Administration and the Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Science, respectively.

Primary reflection phases from a discontinuity at 30km depth have an apparent velocity of about 6.2 km/s. This phase is observed to 1200km ultra-long offset, which shows that the average crustal velocity is extremely low. Another spectacular observation is of extremely strong phases which we interpret as Moho to surface multiples of all main phases in the seismic sections. Clear upper mantle refractions (Pn) are observed with an apparent velocity around 8.05 km/s as first arrivals over the offset range 300-1000 km. All observations show that the crust of northeastern SKC is very thin (about 30km), it has a low average crust velocity (6.2km/s), and the velocity contrast at the Moho discontinuity is extraordinarily strong.

We detect the “Seismic Moho” discontinuity, which is marked by a very strong and sharp increase in velocity. We interpret this “Seismic Moho” as the top of a layer consisting of the lower crust in eclogite facies. This “Seismic Moho” does not coincide with the true Crust-Mantle Boundary, which is defined by a change from felsic/intermediate/mafic crustal rocks to the dominantly ultramafic rocks of the upper mantle in petrological terms.

How to cite: Zhang, X., Thybo, H., Artemieva, I. M., Xu, T., and Bai, Z.: An unusually long eclogitic lower crustal body imaged by the Korean nuclear explosion, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6780, 2022.

We present the theory and applications of the Distributional Finite Difference Method (DFD). The DFD method is an efficient tool for modeling the propagation of elastic waves in heterogeneous media in the time domain. It decomposes the modeling domain into multiple elements that can have arbitrary sizes. When using large elements, the DFD algorithm resembles the finite difference method because the wavefield is updated using operations involving band diagonal matrices only. This makes the DFD method computationally efficient. When small elements are employed, the DFD method permits to mesh complicated structures as in the finite element or the spectral element methods. We present numerical examples showing that the proposed algorithm accurately accounts for free surfaces, solid-fluid interfaces and accommodates non-conformal meshes. Seismograms obtained using the proposed method are compared to those computed using analytical solutions and the spectral element method. The DFD method requires fewer points per wavelength (down to 3) than the spectral element method (5 points per wavelength) to achieve comparable accuracy. We present examples demonstrating the advantages of the DFD method for modeling wave propagation in the Earth at the global and regional scales. 

How to cite: masson, Y.: Modeling seismic wave propagation in the earth using the distributional finite difference method, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6893, 2022.

EGU22-7544 | Presentations | SM5.6

Global gravity gradient inversion reveals variability of cratonic crust 

Peter Haas, Jörg Ebbing, and Wolfgang Szwillus

In this contribution, we present a global estimate of crustal thickness with emphasis to cratons. In an inverse scheme, satellite gravity gradient data are inverted for the Moho depth, exploiting laterally variable density contrasts based on seismic tomography. Our results are constrained by an active source seismic data base, as well as a tectonic regionalization map, derived from seismic tomography. For the global analysis, we implement a moving window approach to perform the gravity inversion, followed by interpolating the estimated density contrasts of common tectonic units with a flood-fill algorithm.

The estimated Moho depth and density contrasts are especially interesting for the cratons of the Earth. Our results reveal a surprising variability of patterns with average Moho depth between 32-42 km, reflecting an individual tectonic history of each craton. Statistical patterns of Moho depth and density contrasts are discussed for the individual cratons and linked to their stabilization age. For example, Australia shows the lowest average Moho depth (32.7 km), indicating early stabilization in the Archean and removal of a dense lower protocrust. This observation matches well with receiver function studies. The globally inverted Moho depth is validated by gridded seismic Moho depth information, which shows that for many cratons the inverted Moho depth is within expected uncertainties of the seismic Moho depth. In addition, the formerly connected cratons of South America and Africa are analyzed and discussed in a Gondwana reconstruction. Here, the once-connected West African and Amazonian Cratons have a shallow Moho depth, indicating that only little tectonic activity occurred during the Phanerozoic. The tectonically-linked Congo and Sao Francisco Cratons have intermediate Moho depths, with the Congo Craton having a slightly shallower Moho depth. This could reflect dynamic support of the upper mantle on the African side.

How to cite: Haas, P., Ebbing, J., and Szwillus, W.: Global gravity gradient inversion reveals variability of cratonic crust, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7544, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7544, 2022.

EGU22-7668 | Presentations | SM5.6

Ambient noise tomography of post-subduction setting in northern Borneo enhanced with machine learning 

Joseph Fone, Simone Pilia, Nicholas Rawlinson, and Song Hou

Given that subduction is an important driver of plate tectonics on Earth, it is notable that the effects of subduction termination are often complex and poorly understood. Northern Borneo is a prime example of a post-subduction environment, where two subduction zones have terminated within the last 20 Ma. The region however has seen very few seismic studies likely due to the low levels of seismicity in the region compared to the rest of Southeast Asia and due to the challenging deployment environment. The goal of the northern Borneo Orogeny Seismic Survey (nBOSS) network, which operated between 2018 and 2020 and consisted of 47 broadband instruments, was to provide constraints and answer first order questions about the structure of the lithosphere and asthenosphere in this post-subduction setting. Waveform data from this network were supplemented with data recorded by 33 permanent instruments operated by the Malaysian meteorological authority, METMalaysia. In this study we produce the first model of the crustal shear wave velocity structure under northern Borneo using surface wave ambient noise tomography to try and better understand the effects of subduction termination on the crust and to better understand the present day structure of the crust in this region which has not been imaged in this way before. We use a trans-dimensional tomography to produce variable resolution 2D Rayleigh wave phase velocity maps in the period range 2-30 seconds sampled every 2 seconds. Then to produce the final 3D shear wave velocity model a series of 1D inversions were used in combination with a neural network that is trained to find a generalised solution to the 1D inverse problem for this data set. This helps to prevent artefacts forming in the final model as a result of there being no lateral correlations in the 1D inversions by providing the more region specific trained neural network to perform the bulk of the 1D inversions. The result is a model that shows a detailed 3D shear wave velocity structure of the crust that matches expected velocity anomalies from known geological features. This includes the large sedimentary basins in the region, which are revealed as large slow velocity anomalies. Our new model agrees with results from other methods used to study this region, including receiver functions and surface wave tomography.

How to cite: Fone, J., Pilia, S., Rawlinson, N., and Hou, S.: Ambient noise tomography of post-subduction setting in northern Borneo enhanced with machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7668, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7668, 2022.

EGU22-7767 | Presentations | SM5.6

A consistent full waveform inversion scheme for imaging heterogeneous isotropic elastic media 

Li-Yu Kan, Sébastien Chevrot, and Vadim Monteiller

Multi-parameter teleseismic full-waveform inversion (FWI) can provide key insights on the composition and thermal state of the lithosphere. In the isotropic version of such inversions, one classically inverts for a set of independent model parameters,  for example (density, Vp, Vs). In this study, we demonstrate that by introducing model covariance matrices with non-diagonal terms to FWI, i.e. accounting for the existing correlations between density, Vp, and Vs, has a dramatic impact on the quality of the reconstructed models. We perform synthetic tests using with a simple subduction model. The teleseismic and regional wavefields are computed with our FK-SEM hybrid method. We invert vertical and radial component P waveforms from four teleseismic events coming from different epicentral distances and azimuths. We use a hierarchical iterative l-BFGS inversion, starting at long period (T > 10 s) to obtain a long wavelength model, and then progressively decreasing the spatial smoothing and cut-off period to 5 s and then 2.5 s. We also demonstrate that a complete non-diagonal model covariance matrix allows us to make the inversion results consistent, i.e. independent of the model parameterization. The inversions which account for the correlations between model parameters provide better models especially for density and Vs, less numerical artifacts, and are characterized by a faster convergence rate compared to inversions performed by assuming that model parameters are independent.

How to cite: Kan, L.-Y., Chevrot, S., and Monteiller, V.: A consistent full waveform inversion scheme for imaging heterogeneous isotropic elastic media, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7767, 2022.

EGU22-8121 | Presentations | SM5.6

Subduction history of the Caribbean from upper-mantle seismic imaging and plate reconstruction 

Benedikt Braszus, Saskia Goes, Rob Allen, Andreas Rietbrock, and Jenny Collier and the VoiLA Team

Even though the Caribbean region is constantly struck by the impact of geological hazards, the details of the Caribbean plate's evolution are still not completely understood. This interdisciplinary study combines and jointly interprets seismic tomography data with trench positions derived from plate reconstruction which constrains some of the most important events governing the evolution of the Caribbean plate. 
Our new teleseismic P-wave tomography model of the upper mantle beneath the Caribbean includes manually processed and analysed data from 32 ocean-bottom seismometers installed for 16 months during the VoiLA experiment as well as recordings from 192 permanent and temporary land stations. Reconstruction tests show improved resolution compared to previous models and a sufficient recovery of a synthetic anomaly assimilating the Caribbean slab. 
Based on reconstructed trench positions we attribute slab fragments residing in depths of 700-1200km to 90–115 Myr old westward subduction along the Great Arc of the Caribbean (GAC) prior to Caribbean Large Igneous Province volcanism, rather than to eastward dipping Farallon subduction. 
In the mantle transition zone, the imaged slab coincides with predicted trench positions from 50-70 Ma with a slab window approximately at the location of the subducted Proto-Caribbean spreading ridge.
Along the otherwise continous slab in the shallow upper mantle from Hispanola to Grenada several tears are interpreted as ruptures along fault zones in the Proto-Caribbean crust as well as the subducted extinct Proto-Caribbean spreading ridge. 

How to cite: Braszus, B., Goes, S., Allen, R., Rietbrock, A., and Collier, J. and the VoiLA Team: Subduction history of the Caribbean from upper-mantle seismic imaging and plate reconstruction, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8121, 2022.

EGU22-8319 | Presentations | SM5.6

3D Variational Full-Waveform Inversion 

Xin Zhang, Muhong Zhou, Angus Lomas, York Zheng, and Andrew Curtis

Seismic full-waveform inversion (FWI) produces high resolution images of the subsurface by exploiting information in full seismic waveforms, and has been applied at global, regional and industrial spatial scales. FWI is traditionally solved by using optimization, in which one seeks a best model by minimizing the misfit between observed waveforms and model predicted waveforms. Due to the nonlinearity of the physical relationship between model parameters and waveforms, a good starting model is often required to produce a reasonable model. In addition, the optimization methods cannot produce accurate uncertainty estimates, which are required to better interpret the results.

To estimate uncertainties more accurately, nonlinear Bayesian methods have been deployed to solve the FWI problem. Monte Carlo sampling is one such algorithm but it is computationally expensive, and all Markov chain Monte Carlo-based methods are difficult to parallelise fully. Variational inference provides an efficient, fully parallelisable alternative methodology. This is a class of methods that optimize an approximation to a probability distribution describing post-inversion parameter uncertainties. Both Monte Carlo and variational full waveform inversion (VFWI) have been applied previously to solve 2D FWI problems, but neither of them have been applied to 3D FWI. In this study we apply the VFWI method to a 3D FWI problem. Specifically we use Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) method to solve the 3D Bayesian FWI problem and to obtain an optimised set of samples of the full posterior probability distribution. The aim of this study is to explore performance of the method in 3D, to assess the computational requirements and to provide useful information for practitioners. Our results demonstrate that the 3D VFWI is practical, at least for small problems, and can be applied to image the subsurface in reality.

How to cite: Zhang, X., Zhou, M., Lomas, A., Zheng, Y., and Curtis, A.: 3D Variational Full-Waveform Inversion, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8319, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8319, 2022.

EGU22-9636 | Presentations | SM5.6

Machine learning-based attenuation of steeply dipping events of seismic reflection image beneath the Korean Peninsula 

Youngseok Song, Joongmoo Byun, Sooyoon Kim, Yonggyu Choi, and Sungmyung Bae

Seismic reflection images derived by ambient-noise seismic interferometry (SI) can show subsurface structures without active sources. To image and interpret the upper mantle structures and tectonic boundaries beneath the southern part of Korean Peninsula, we applied SI method to seismic ambient noise data recorded at 119 seismic stations on the Korean Peninsula in 2014 (from the seismic network of the Korean Meteorological Administration). The factor that makes interpretation difficult is the steeply dipping events in reflection images. Most of these events of apparent steeply dips show as true reflection events from steep geologic boundaries. Therefore, we need to attenuate these events to interpret true reflection events. These events overlap many times. Also, the value of the slope has several values close to half of the Rayleigh waves or P waves. To attenuate these events with these complex features, we used machine learning techniques. We attenuated our steeply dipping events by applying the Extraction of diffractions method. As the steeply dipping events are attenuated, horizontal events were strengthened, and noises were attenuated. We can more clearly identify the reflection events of the Moho discontinuity and the lithosphere/asthenosphere (LAB) boundary near the two-way reflection times of 7-11 s and 17-22 s respectively.

How to cite: Song, Y., Byun, J., Kim, S., Choi, Y., and Bae, S.: Machine learning-based attenuation of steeply dipping events of seismic reflection image beneath the Korean Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9636, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9636, 2022.

EGU22-10232 | Presentations | SM5.6

A new Integrated lithological model of the Iberian crust 

Carlos Clemente-Gómez, Javier Fullea, and Mariano S. Arnaiz-Rodríguez

The Earth’s crust hosts most of the geo-resources of societal interests (e.g. minerals, geothermal energy etc.). Integrative approaches combining geophysical and petrological observations to study the mantle assuming thermodynamic equilibrium are relatively common nowadays. However, in contrast to the mantle, where thermodynamic equilibrium is prevalent, vast portions of the crust are thermodynamically metastable. This is because equilibration processes are essentially temperature activated and the temperature in the crust is usually too low to trigger them. Consequently, the mineralogical assemblage of crustal rocks is mostly decoupled from the in situ pressure and temperature conditions, reflecting instead the conditions present at the moment of rock formation. Here we present a new methodology for integrated geophysical-petrological multi-data modelling of the crust. Our primary constraining data are fundamental mode Rayleigh wave surface wave dispersion curves determined by interstation cross-correlation measurements and teleseisms, as well as surface elevation (isostasy) and heat flow. Additional prior information is provided by P-wave velocities coming from controlled source and body wave tomography data. The inversion is framed within an integrated geophysical-petrological setting where mantle seismic velocities and densities are computed thermodynamically as a function of the in situ temperature and compositional conditions. In this work we develop a new parameterization of the crust where we first invert following global statistical correlations between Vp, Vs and crustal densities for different lithologies in a two-layered model. In a second step we compute the rock physical properties for different metamorphic facies and water contents using computational petrology to derive a plausible and consistent lithological model. In order to optimize the inversion procedure, we perform a sensitivity  analysis assessing the resolution of the different data sets. The new methodology is applied to the Iberian Peninsula and adjacent margins where we jointly invert for both the crustal and lithospheric mantle structure.

How to cite: Clemente-Gómez, C., Fullea, J., and Arnaiz-Rodríguez, M. S.: A new Integrated lithological model of the Iberian crust, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10232, 2022.

The eastern Canadian Shield and its margins represent an excellent natural laboratory to study the formation and evolution of continental lithosphere, as the rocks and structures preserve approximately 4 billion years of geological history. The core of the continent is made up of several large Archean cratonic blocks and continental fragments, welded together by Paleoproterozoic mobile belts. Subsequent Proterozoic orogenesis added to the southern and eastern margins, building the Laurentian landmass, and a series of Wilson cycles established the form of the continent we see today. Laurentian lithosphere is characterized in seismic tomography by a thick, seismically fast continental keel, representing cold temperatures and a depleted composition, whereas the Phanerozoic margins have slower seismic wavespeeds and a thinner lithosphere.

Over the last several decades, numerous seismic anisotropy measurements have been used to investigate lithospheric and sublithospheric fabrics beneath the region. Shear wave splitting shows strong lateral variability in both the strength and fast-polarisation orientation of the anisotropy, and measurements at closely-spaced stations suggest a significant lithospheric component as well as a likely sublithospheric contribution. Recent regional and continental-scale surface wave tomography studies allow for some depth constraint on the azimuthal anisotropy, which appears pervasive, but varying, for different depth ranges within the lithosphere and asthenosphere.

We compare the measurements from shear wave splitting and surface wave tomography with several geological and geophysical observations that could relate to anisotropic fabric, such as surface tectonic boundaries, magnetic anomalies, absolute plate-motion directions and mantle flow patterns from global geodynamic models. We use these comparisons to investigate the relative contributions to the seismic anisotropy observed across the region from lithospheric deformation, basal shear of the North American plate, and active mantle convection.

How to cite: Darbyshire, F.: Evidence for lithospheric and sublithospheric anisotropy of the eastern Canadian Shield and its margins, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1781, 2022.

EGU22-2420 | Presentations | GD7.3

Constraining Upper Mantle Viscosity Using Temperature and Water Content Inferred from Seismic and Magnetotelluric Data 

Florence Ramirez, Kate Selway, Clint Conrad, and Carolina Lithgow-Bertelloni

Mantle viscosity controls a variety of geodynamic processes such as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), but it is poorly constrained because it cannot be measured directly from geophysical measurements. To improve viscosity estimates, we develop a method that computes viscosity using empirical viscosity flow laws and mantle parameters (temperature and water content) inferred from geophysical observations. We find that combining both seismic and magnetotelluric constraints allows us to place significantly tighter bounds on viscosity estimates compared to either geophysical observation by itself. In particular, electrical conductivity inferred from MT data can determine whether upper mantle minerals are hydrated, which is not seismically detectible but significantly reduces viscosity. Additionally, we show that rock composition should be considered when estimating viscosity from geophysical data because composition directly affects both seismic velocity and electrical conductivity. Therefore, temperature and water content is more uncertain for rocks of unknown composition, which makes viscosity also more uncertain. Furthermore, calculations that assume pure thermal control of seismic velocity may misinterpret compositional heterogeneity for temperature variations, producing erroneous predictions of mantle temperature and viscosity. Stress and grain size also affect the viscosity and its associated uncertainty, particularly via their controls on deformation regime. Overall, mantle viscosity can be estimated best when both seismic and MT data are available and the mantle composition, grain size and stress can be estimated. Collecting additional MT data probably offers the greatest opportunity to improve geodynamic or GIA models that rely on viscosity estimates.

How to cite: Ramirez, F., Selway, K., Conrad, C., and Lithgow-Bertelloni, C.: Constraining Upper Mantle Viscosity Using Temperature and Water Content Inferred from Seismic and Magnetotelluric Data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2420, 2022.

EGU22-3250 | Presentations | GD7.3

Dehydration-induced earthquakes and apparent slab pull in a subducted oceanic slab beneath Vrancea, Romania 

Thomas P. Ferrand, Elena Manea, Andreea Craiu, Johannes C. Vrijmoed, and Alexandru Marmureanu

Vrancea, Eastern Romania, presents a significant intermediate-depth seismicity, between 60 and 170 km depth, i.e. pressures from 2 to 6.5 GPa. A debate has been lasting for decades regarding the nature of the seismic volume, which could correspond to the remnant of a subducted slab of Tethyan lithosphere or a delamination of the Carpathians lithosphere. We present P-T diagrams showing to what extent these hypocentral conditions match the thermodynamic stability limits for minerals typical of the uppermost mantle, oceanic crust and lower continental crust.

Most triggering conditions match relatively well antigorite dehydration between 2 and 4.5 GPa; at higher pressures, the dehydration of the 10-Å phase provides the best fit. This demonstrates that the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismicity is evidence of the current dehydration of an oceanic slab beneath Romania. Our results are consistent with a recent rollback of a W-dipping oceanic slab, whose current location is explained by limited delamination of the continental Moesian lithosphere between the Tethyan suture zone and Vrancea.

In addition, we investigate the potential link between the triggering mechanisms and the retrieved focal mechanisms of 940 earthquakes, which allows interpreting the stress field distribution with depth. We observe a switch from collision to vertical extension between 100 and 130 km depth, where the Clapeyron slope of serpentine dehydration is negative. The negative volume change within dehydrating subhorizontal serpentinized faults (verticalized slab) likely explains the vertical extension recorded by the intermediate-depth seismicity. This apparent slab pull is accompanied with a rotation of the main compressive stress, which could favour slab detachments in actively subducting slabs.

How to cite: Ferrand, T. P., Manea, E., Craiu, A., Vrijmoed, J. C., and Marmureanu, A.: Dehydration-induced earthquakes and apparent slab pull in a subducted oceanic slab beneath Vrancea, Romania, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3250, 2022.

EGU22-3554 | Presentations | GD7.3

Towards waveform seismic filtering of mantle convection models 

Nobuaki Fuji, Nirmit Dhabaria, Giacomo Roncoroni, Robert Myhill, Stéphanie Durand, Anselme Borgeaud, Paul Tackley, Takashi Nakagawa, and Frédéric Deschamps

Earth science has been heavily data-driven due to the abundance in data. Yet, when there are relatively a small number of hypotheses to verify, the inverse problem becomes a classification problem. It is then worth directly examining observed seismic data against predicted data. Concretely, we chain forward modelling from geodynamics  to seismology. We call this process ‘waveform Seismic Low Filtering of Earth’s models’ (SeLFiE). We take seismic signals of the snapshots of forwardly generated Earth models with that of the actual Earth, as if we took a photo of ourselves. Although there have several studies on how the seismological tomographic technique can perceive the geodynamical models, there are few studies on the seismic waveform sensitivity to geodynamical or petrological parameters. A pilot test of our SeLFiE methodology was encouraging, since we used only one seismic station to constrain the melt transportation manner beneath the Réunion island (Franken et al. 2020). Here in this contribution we present our strategy and developed tools towards the waveform filtering that have been developed during and after the CLEEDI week in August, 2020.

How to cite: Fuji, N., Dhabaria, N., Roncoroni, G., Myhill, R., Durand, S., Borgeaud, A., Tackley, P., Nakagawa, T., and Deschamps, F.: Towards waveform seismic filtering of mantle convection models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3554, 2022.

EGU22-4306 | Presentations | GD7.3

Seismic Evidence for Partial Melt Below Tectonic Plates 

Thomas Bodin, Eric Debayle, Stephanie Durand, and Yanick Ricard

The seismic low-velocity zone (LVZ) of the upper mantle is generally associated with a low-viscosity asthenosphere that has a key role in decoupling tectonic plates from the mantle. However, the origin of the LVZ remains unclear. Some studies attribute its low seismic velocities to a small amount of partial melt of minerals in the mantle, whereas others attribute them to solid-state mechanisms near the solidus or the effect of its volatile contents. Observations of shear attenuation provide additional constraints on the origin of the LVZ. On the basis of the interpretation of global three-dimensional shear attenuation and velocity models, here we report partial melt occurring within the LVZ. We observe that partial melting down to 150–200 kilometres beneath mid-ocean ridges, major hotspots and back-arc regions feeds the asthenosphere. A small part of this melt (less than 0.3 per cent) remains trapped within the oceanic LVZ. Melt is mostly absent under continental regions. The amount of melt increases with plate velocity, increasing substantially for plate velocities of between 3 centimetres per year and 5 centimetres per year. This finding is consistent with previous observations of mantle crystal alignment underneath tectonic plates. Our observations suggest that by reducing viscosity melt facilitates plate motion and large-scale crystal alignment in the asthenosphere.

How to cite: Bodin, T., Debayle, E., Durand, S., and Ricard, Y.: Seismic Evidence for Partial Melt Below Tectonic Plates, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4306, 2022.

EGU22-4614 | Presentations | GD7.3

The role of buoyancy-driven flow at the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary: from mid-ocean ridge to old sub-lithosphere models 

Adina E. Pusok, Katherine Dale, Richard F. Katz, Dave A. May, and Yuan Li

The classic definition of plate tectonics suggests that mid-ocean ridges (MORs) are places of passive mantle upwelling driven by plate divergence, and that the oceanic lithosphere forms by conductive cooling away from the ridge. This model predicts the symmetry of the partially-molten region beneath the ridge axis, and the lithosphere thickening with age (i.e., half-space cooling model). New and classic observations show some inconsistency with these predictions. Here we present dynamic, two-phase flow numerical models of MORs that reconcile theory and observations by incorporating buoyancy-driven flow associated with temperature, composition and porosity.

First, geophysical observations at various MOR segments indicate strong asymmetry in melt production, upwelling and seamount distribution across the axis at fast spreading centers such as the MELT region (Melt Seismic Team, 1998), intermediate-spreading centers such as Juan de Fuca Ridge (Bell et al., 2016) and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (Wang et al., 2020), and slow-spreading centers such as the Mohns Ridge (Johansen et al., 2019). Passive flow models cannot explain this asymmetry, as they require unrealistically large forcing (Toomey et al., 2002).

Second, both seismic and electromagnetic studies have inferred variations in the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) and plate thickness that do not monotonically increase with age (e.g., Rychert et al., 2020). Sublithospheric small-scale convection (SSC) is generally the preferred explanation of these oscillations (e.g., Parsons and McKenzie, 1978, Likerman et al., 2021). However, seismic anomalies cannot be explained using solely solid-state thermal variations. While other mechanisms have been proposed to match the sharp discontinuities in seismic data, small amounts of melt (1-5.5%) could be the most straightforward explanation (Rychert et al., 2021). Sub-plate partial melt could also explain the cause of intraplate volcanism or petit-spot volcanoes observed on the outer rise in some subduction centers (Hirano et al., 2006). 

We show that melting-induced buoyancy effects may provide an explanation for both the asymmetric distribution of melt beneath the axis and LAB variations. Here, we extend our 2D mid-ocean ridge calculations to incorporate chemical (residue depletion) and thermal buoyancy, in order to investigate how the dynamics of melt generation and migration may influence small-scale convection at the LAB.

We run two types of models: closer to the ridge axis, where melt is generated over an extended region, and further away from the axis, where active flow may induce small amounts of partial-melting. Results show that MOR models with both chemical and porous buoyancy are sensitive to background forcing and can readily induce asymmetry and small-scale, time-dependent convection beneath the axis. Melting and crystallization of enriched material leads to a dynamic LAB closer to the ridge axis. Models of older oceanic LAB are more susceptible to the influence of thermal instabilities, which can erode the lithosphere and limit the base of the ocean lithosphere from cooling. 

References

Bell et al., 2016, DOI:10.1002/2016JB012990

Hirano et al., 2006, DOI:10.1126/science.1128235

Johansen et al., 2019, DOI:10.1038/s41586-019-1010-0

Likerman et al., 2021, DOI:10.1093/gji/ggab286

Melt Seismic Team, 1998, DOI:10.1126/science.280.5367.1215

Parsons and McKenzie, 1978, DOI:10.1029/JB083iB09p04485

Rychert et al., 2020, DOI:10.1029/2018JB016463

Rychert et al., 2021, DOI:10.1016/j.epsl.2021.116949

Toomey et al., 2002, DOI:10.1016/S0012-821X(02)00655-6

Wang et al., 2020, DOI:10.1029/2020GC009177

How to cite: Pusok, A. E., Dale, K., Katz, R. F., May, D. A., and Li, Y.: The role of buoyancy-driven flow at the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary: from mid-ocean ridge to old sub-lithosphere models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4614, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4614, 2022.

EGU22-4897 | Presentations | GD7.3

Large-scale variation in seismic anisotropy in the crust and upper mantle beneath Anatolia, Turkey 

Cedric Legendre, Li Zhao, and Tai-Lin Tseng

Seismic anisotropy beneath Anatolia is complex, with several layers of different anisotropy. 
The average anisotropy is well constrained by shear-wave splitting measurements [Kaviani et al., 2009], suggesting very strong anisotropy (over 1.5s delay time). However, the vertical layering of anisotropy and the contribution of each layer is still an open question. 

We construct anisotropic phase-velocity maps of fundamental-mode Rayleigh waves for the Anatolia region using records from several regional seismic stations, using both earthquake and ambient noise data. 
The collision between the Arabia and Eurasia plates leads to the westward extrusion (and EW anisotropy) of the Anatolian crust, consistent with the seismic anisotropy patterns we found in the crust (1%, EW fast axis) and with previous studies [Mutlu et al., 2011; Legendre et al., 2020].
The Aegean/Anatolian subduction system with slab tearing and breakoff induces a complex flow pattern and anisotropy in the upper mantle [van Hinsbergen et al., 2010; Kaviani et al., 2018].
This is in agreement with the anisotropy we image in the lithosphere (1%, N020E and N100E fast axes) and asthenosphere (1%, N120E). However, the anisotropy in these layers display limited amplitudes.
At deeper depth, remnant Bitlis and Tethyan slabs are lying flat above the 660-km discontinuity [Berk Biryol et al., 2011]. 

The uniform pattern of anisotropy from shear-wave splitting observations can not be explained solely by a single anisotropic layer, and is not consistent with the anisotropy observed in the crustl lithospheric and asthenospheric mantle. This suggests that main contribution of the anisotropy likely originates from a deep source around the mantle transition zone [Legendre et al., 2021].

How to cite: Legendre, C., Zhao, L., and Tseng, T.-L.: Large-scale variation in seismic anisotropy in the crust and upper mantle beneath Anatolia, Turkey, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4897, 2022.

EGU22-6274 | Presentations | GD7.3

What is a plate ? Dynamical definition of the transition between lithosphere and asthenosphere 

Fanny Garel and Catherine Thoraval

While the lateral limits of tectonic plates are well mapped by seismicity, the bottom boundary of the lithosphere, the uppermost rigid layer of the Earth comprising both crust and shallow mantle, remains elusive. Lithospheric plates are usually viewed as cold, rigid, internally undeformed blocks that translate coherently. The base of the lithosphere, designated as the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB), could thus theoretically be characterized from either temperature, viscosity, strain rate and horizontal velocity.

 

Several LABs as defined from these different fields are investigated here using thermo-mechanical models of plate and upper mantle dynamics, either in a transient subduction or in a steady-state plate-driven set-up. Mantle material is modelled as homogeneous in composition with a viscosity that depends on temperature, pressure and strain rate. In such systems, the thermo-mechanical transition between lithosphere and asthenosphere occurs over a finite depth interval in temperature, strain rate and velocity. We propose that the most useful dynamical LAB is defined as the base of a “constant-velocity” plate (i.e. the material translating at constant horizontal velocity). The bottom part of this plate deforms at strain rates comparable to those in the underlying asthenosphere mantle: the translating block is not fully rigid.

 

Thermal structure exerts a major control on this dynamical LAB, which deepens with increasing plate age. However, the surface plate velocity and more generally the asthenospheric flow geometry and magnitude also impact the depth of the dynamical LAB, as well as the thickness of the deformed region at the base of the constant-velocity plate. Moreover, the mechanical transitions from lithosphere to asthenosphere adjust when mantle dynamics evolves.

 

The dynamical and thermo-mechanical LABs occur within a thermal lithosphere-asthenophere gradual transition, in agreement with the results obtained from geophysical proxies. The concept of a constant-velocity plate can be extended to a constant-velocity subducting slab, which also deforms at its borders and drags the surrounding mantle. This dynamical definition of a lithospheric plate is relevant to interpret mantle seismic anisotropy in terms of (past) flow direction, and to quantify mass transport within the Earth’s mantle.

 

How to cite: Garel, F. and Thoraval, C.: What is a plate ? Dynamical definition of the transition between lithosphere and asthenosphere, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6274, 2022.

EGU22-6989 | Presentations | GD7.3

A naive Bayesian method to chase mantle plumes in global tomography models 

Olivier de Viron, Michel Van Camp, Ana M.G. Ferreira, and Olivier Verhoeven

We propose a quantitative approach to search for mantle plumes in global seismic tomography models without prior assumptions on the associated mantle velocity anomalies. We design detection tests with a reasonable detection threshold while keeping false detections at a level lower than 5%. This is based on naive Bayesian clustering analysis, which is possible thanks to the varimax principal component analysis that provides components that are much more independent than the original number of depths slices in the models. We find that using such independent components greatly reduces detection errors compared to using an arbitrary number of depth slices due to correlations between the different slices.

We detect a wide range of behaviour of the seismic velocity profiles underneath the hotspots investigated in this study. Moreover, we retrieve locations away from hotspots that have a similar seismic velocity profile signature to that underneath some hotspots. Hence, it is not possible to obtain a unique definition of seismic velocity anomalies that are associated with mantle plumes and thus care needs to be taken when searching for mantle plumes using prior assumptions about the velocity anomalies that might be associated with them. On the other hand, we identify a criterion that allows establishing a probability distribution of the seismic velocity profiles that is specific to a sub-list of hotspots and we show that this distribution does not occur significantly elsewhere. Overall, the mantle plume zones identified in our analysis do not appear to surround the Africa and Pacific large low shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs) but are rather within them. This supports the idea that LLSVPs may correspond to bundles of thermochemical mantle plumes rather than to compact, dense piles.

How to cite: de Viron, O., Van Camp, M., Ferreira, A. M. G., and Verhoeven, O.: A naive Bayesian method to chase mantle plumes in global tomography models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6989, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6989, 2022.

EGU22-7462 | Presentations | GD7.3

Seismological and petrophysical properties of the lithospheric mantle in a nascent rift 

Adeline Clutier, Stéphanie Gautier, Fleurice Parat, and Christel Tiberi

The North Tanzanian Divergence (NTD) is a rift initiation zone situated at the southern tip of the Eastern Branch of the East African Rift. This zone is a unique continental open-air laboratory to study the beginning of the continental break-up. The rift surface expression results from the interaction between tectonic and magmatic processes. However, the role of each process on the observed surface activity is still debated, as their respective signal is difficult to differentiate. In order to consider the various factors that may interact in this complex zone, a multi-disciplinary study was carried out, combining seismological and petrophysical approaches.

First, our recent development of a new hybrid tomographic method for both P and S-body waves permitted to image at depth the main suture zones between the inherited structures (Archean craton and Proterozoic orogenic belts) and the mantle plume extension (Clutier et al. 2021). We also inferred zones of fluid (melt or gas) presence from the Vp/Vs ratio maps deduced from these P and S independent inversions. Then, to quantify the proportion of fluid from the tomographic images, we carried out a petrophysical study on mantle xenoliths from the Pello Hills volcano, situated in the rift axis. The clinopyroxene-amphibole-phlogopite vein-bearing xenoliths allowed to compute, at a sample scale, the seismic properties of the mantle with and without crystallised or fluid-filled veins. By varying the composition and increasing the proportion veins in the samples, the P and S-wave maximum velocities can decrease from 9.2 down to 5.3 km/s and from 5.1 down to 3.1 km/s, respectively. Those velocity models point out anisotropy in the mantle below the NTD, and particularly in highly metasomatized zones. Finally, despite the difference in spatial and temporal scales between the petrological and geophysical studies, we managed to combine the tomographic velocity anomalies and the xenolith’s seismic properties to infer a maximum volume of fluid in the lithospheric mantle below Pello Hills volcano. This volume may be intermediate between 20% of clinopyroxene-phlogopite-amphibole crystallised vein and 10% melt/fluid-filled vein.

How to cite: Clutier, A., Gautier, S., Parat, F., and Tiberi, C.: Seismological and petrophysical properties of the lithospheric mantle in a nascent rift, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7462, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7462, 2022.

EGU22-8282 | Presentations | GD7.3

Spatial Correlation between Intraplate Volcanism and Thin Lithosphere in the Circum-Mediterranean: New Evidences from Surface Wave Tomography and Thermomechanical Modelling 

Amr El-Sharkawy, Thor Hansteen, Carlos Clemente-Gomez, Javier Fullea, Sergei Lebedev, and Thomas Meier

During the Cenozoic, the Circum-Mediterranean and its periphery have experienced extensive and widespread anorogenic igneous magmatism that reflects the response of the upper mantle to the geodynamic evolution of this area. The exact origin of the volcanic activities and its relation to the underlying thin lithosphere especially in the continental areas have been long-lasting debated. We investigate the structure of the Mediterranean lithosphere and the sub-lithospheric mantle by surface waves that are mainly sensitive to the 3-D S-wave velocity structure at those depths. A high-resolution tomographic study based on automated broad-band measurements of inter-station Rayleigh wave phase velocities down to about 300 km depth is presented. We identify shallow asthenospheric volumes, characterized by low S-wave velocities between about 70 km and 250 km depth, and distinguish between five major shallow asthenospheric volumes in the Circum-Mediterranean: the Middle East, the Anatolian-Aegean, the Pannonian, the Central European, and the Western Mediterranean Asthenosphere volumes. Remarkably, they form an almost continuous circular belt of asthenospheric areas interrupted only by the thick Permo-Carboniferous oceanic lithosphere in the eastern Mediterranean.

Integrated thermochemical modelling using surface wave phase velocities, topography, and heat flow as constraints indicates a remarkable variability of the lithospheric thickness across the area. Thick lithosphere is found in the Paris Basin, the East European Craton, and the eastern Mediterranean whereas thin lithosphere is found in areas of pronounced negative shear-wave anomalies at depth between 70 km and 200 km. Cenozoic intraplate volcanic fields are located in areas with thin lithosphere underlain by shallow asthenosphere. Thus, anorogenic intraplate volcanism in the Circum-Mediterranean appears to be associated with thin and hot lithospheric regions and low S-wave sublithospheric velocities. The distribution and properties of the shallow asthenosphere volumes in the region are discussed and related to the spatial-temporal occurrence of intraplate as well as subduction related volcanism in the western Mediterranean, central Europe, the Pannonian Basin, the Anatolian region and the Middle East.

How to cite: El-Sharkawy, A., Hansteen, T., Clemente-Gomez, C., Fullea, J., Lebedev, S., and Meier, T.: Spatial Correlation between Intraplate Volcanism and Thin Lithosphere in the Circum-Mediterranean: New Evidences from Surface Wave Tomography and Thermomechanical Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8282, 2022.

EGU22-8734 | Presentations | GD7.3

Normal mode models of the mantle using Backus-Gilbert tomography 

Federica Restelli, Paula Koelemeijer, and Christophe Zaroli

Seismic tomography is a powerful tool to study the deep Earth, given the lack of direct observations. Seismic structures can be interpreted together with constraints from other disciplines, such as geodynamics and mineral physics, to provides valuable information about the structure, dynamics and evolution of the mantle. Nevertheless, a robust physical interpretation of seismic images remains challenging as tomographic models typically lack uncertainty information and may have biased amplitudes due to uneven data coverage and regularisation.

We aim to build tomographic models of the mantle with associated uncertainties and unbiased amplitudes. For this, we use the SOLA method (Zaroli, 2016) applied to normal mode data, the Earth’s free oscillations. SOLA is based on a Backus-Gilbert approach, which explicitly constrains the amplitudes to be unbiased and inherently computes the model uncertainty and resolution. This approach enables us to perform meaningful physical interpretations of the imaged structures. By applying this method to normal modes, we obtain valuable insights on the long wavelength structure of the mantle. The use of normal modes also has several advantages: these data are sensitive to multiple parameters, including both Vs and Vp anisotropy as well as density, and they provide global data coverage.

Here, we report on our progress towards a new 3-D mantle model based on the inversion of normal mode splitting function data. We discuss initial results from synthetic tests and isotropic inversions in terms of model estimates, uncertainties and resolution.

How to cite: Restelli, F., Koelemeijer, P., and Zaroli, C.: Normal mode models of the mantle using Backus-Gilbert tomography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8734, 2022.

EGU22-11306 | Presentations | GD7.3

Southern Tibetan rifting controlled by basal shear and heterogeneities of the underthrusting Indian lithosphere 

Xuewei Bao, Bingfeng Zhang, Yixian Xu, and Wencai Yang

The dominant driving forces for the east-west extension of the Tibetan Plateau since the mid-late Miocene remain vigorously debated. Proposed hypotheses encounter difficulties in reconciling the geological observations of more developed north-trending rifts in southern Tibet as well as the discrepant extension magnitudes among them. With seismic recordings collected from our recently deployed and existing seismic arrays, we locate a mid-crustal simple shear zone characterized by convergence parallel anisotropy beneath the southern plateau, which is likely caused by the underthrusting of the Indian Plate. Furthermore, a zone of reduced S-wave velocity is also resolved between the two rifts with highest extension rate, indicative of the convective removal of the lower Indian mantle lithosphere. Taken together, our results suggest that the enhanced extension occurring in southern Tibet are controlled by both the shear tractions induced by the advancing Indian Plate and the increased buoyancy due to asthenospheric upwelling.

How to cite: Bao, X., Zhang, B., Xu, Y., and Yang, W.: Southern Tibetan rifting controlled by basal shear and heterogeneities of the underthrusting Indian lithosphere, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11306, 2022.

EGU22-11377 | Presentations | GD7.3

Seismic structure in the crust and upper mantle beneath the Hindu Kush and Pamir from Full Waveform Inversion 

Yajian Gao, Frederik Tilmann, Xiaohui Yuan, Bernd Schurr, Andreas Rietbrock, Andreas Fichtner, Wei Li, Felix Schneider, Sofia-Katerina Kufner, Solvi Thrastarson, and Dirk-Philip van Herwaarden

The Hindu-Kush and Pamir are located north of the western syntaxis of the Himalaya, representing one of the most active continental collision zones involving a complicated lithosphere deformation history. Based on the increased seismic data coverage in this region we employ the Multi-Scale Full Waveform Inversion Scheme (MSFWI) to investigate the seismic structure of the crust and uppermost mantle using earthquake waveforms (12-100s) and cross-correlation Green’s Function derived from ambient noise (10-80s). Through the MSFWI joint inversion, we provide high-resolution images for isotropic Vp and radial anisotropic Vs (Vsv and Vsh).

We image the subducting Hindu-Kush slab beneath the interaction zone of the Hindu-Kush and Tajik-Basin at depth and a thin and relatively low-velocity layer is detected on top of the subducting lithosphere, hosting the intense intermediate depth seismicity, indicating the subducting lower crust of the Hindu-Kush slab. The transition from relatively low-to-high velocity indicates the termination of eclogitization of the subducting crust accompanied by a gradual increase of negative buoyancy causing a slab break-off at a depth of around 150 km. This process is ongoing and accompanied by a deep seismicity cluster. Atop of the Hindu-Kush subducting system, low-velocities are imaged within the lower continental crust, dipping to the southeast. This gently dipping low-velocity layer connects the collision zone of the Hindu-Kush and Indian plate, hinting at a complicated lower crust subduction process, which is also accompanied by a very deep Moho up to 80 km.

Beneath the Central Pamir, a narrow low-velocity zone in the lower crust and uppermost mantle (down to 100 km) follows the curvature of the intermediate-depth seismicity and suture (and thrust faults), marking the active collision position of the Indian-Asian plates, which resulted in an exhumation and significant crustal thickening. The thin and southward dipping low-velocity zone in the uppermost mantle is also consistent with the intermediate seismicity, illuminating the subducting lower crust of the Asian plate while meeting the rigid Indian indentation. 

Meanwhile, a strong sharp transition from high-to-low velocity coinciding the Talas-Ferghana fault at mantle lithospheric depth delineates the transition from the Ferghana basin into the Central Tien Shan, indicating the large scale lithosphere delamination beneath the whole Central Tien Shan with some lithospheric remnants existing beneath the central part of Central Tien Shan. This remnant high-velocity lithosphere possibly indicates that the deformation for the Central Tien Shan mainly concentrated on the south and north end due to the compression from the Tarim basin and Kazakh Shield, respectively.

How to cite: Gao, Y., Tilmann, F., Yuan, X., Schurr, B., Rietbrock, A., Fichtner, A., Li, W., Schneider, F., Kufner, S.-K., Thrastarson, S., and van Herwaarden, D.-P.: Seismic structure in the crust and upper mantle beneath the Hindu Kush and Pamir from Full Waveform Inversion, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11377, 2022.

EGU22-12799 | Presentations | GD7.3

S-to-P Receiver Function Analysis of The New Zealand Subduction Zone 

William Buffett, Nicholas Harmon, Catherine Rychert, and Lisa McNeill

Subduction zone dynamics are important for a better understanding of a broad range of topics ranging from plate tectonics to natural hazards such as earthquakes and volcanoes. New Zealand is a seismically unique place, resting on the Hikurangi Subduction Zone. It experiences a large range of seismic phenomena from evidence of large megathrust events and slow slip activity, to active volcanism within the Taupo Volcanic Zone. Although much seismic imaging has been performed, S-to-P receiver functions can tightly constrain discontinuities and associated dynamics. Here we use S-to-P receiver functions to image lithospheric discontinuities beneath the North Island of New Zealand using IRIS-DMC and Geonet stations. We image the Moho at 15-25 km depth in the south by Wellington, with a second velocity increase with depth imaged just beneath at 40-50 km, possibly corresponding to the Moho of the downgoing plate. On the northern edge of the North Island by Auckland, the Moho is imaged at 20 +/- 5 km depth. Near Napier and Lake Taupo we image 2 positive discontinuities at 10 and 30 km depth, still beneath the upper plate potentially related to crustal layering or the magmatic plumbing system. This is in line with previous studies of the Moho, for example a collation of Moho estimates by Salmon et al. (2013) places the Moho in the region of 20-25 km depth for most of the North Island, except for some deeper phases in the very east and the most southwest. A negative phase corresponding to the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) of the upper plate is imaged at 60-70 km depth across portions of the North Island. The LAB of subducting Pacific Plate is imaged at 70-80 km with the exception of a gap in the LAB phase between 39° and 40° latitude and around 176° longitude corresponding to the mountain ranges of Kaweka Forest Park and Ruahīne Forest Park. We image a velocity increase directly beneath the LAB, potentially related to the base of a melt layer beneath the plate. Furthermore, this is consistent with the estimated thickness of the lithosphere (73 +/- 1 km), for instance from the active source estimates of Stern et al. (2015).

How to cite: Buffett, W., Harmon, N., Rychert, C., and McNeill, L.: S-to-P Receiver Function Analysis of The New Zealand Subduction Zone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12799, 2022.

EGU22-13373 | Presentations | GD7.3 | Highlight | GD Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture

Probing the rheology of the lithosphere using earthquake seismology 

Tim Craig

Earthquakes provide a crucial way of probing the deformation style, strength, and stress state of the lithosphere.  In this talk, I will outline ways in which we can use careful analysis and precise seismological observations of earthquakes, particularly those at moderate magnitudes (M ~5-6), to map out how stress is supported in the lithosphere, and how the rheology of the lithosphere can vary in both space and time, summarising our current understanding of the controls on the distribution of earthquakes.  I will draw on examples from a range of regional studies, and outline what conclusions we can draw about the geological and geodynamic controls on the distribution of earthquakes in each region, and the variation on the style of deformation within the lithosphere.  I will also discuss areas in which our current understanding of the distribution of earthquakes remains unable to explain some observations, and challenges for the future.

How to cite: Craig, T.: Probing the rheology of the lithosphere using earthquake seismology, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13373, 2022.

It is commonly assumed that intermediate-depth seismicity is in some way linked to dehydration reactions inside subducting oceanic lithosphere. There is growing evidence that the hydration state of an oceanic plate is controlled by its structure and degree of faulting at the outer rise, but we do not yet have a quantitative understanding of this relationship.

Double seismic zones offer the possibility of investigating changes in oceanic-plate hydration not only along strike but also with depth beneath the slab surface. To quantify the impact of oceanic-​plate structure and faulting on slab hydration and intermediate-depth seismicity, with a focus on the genesis of double seismic zones, we correlate high-resolution earthquake catalogs and seafloor maps of ship-based bathymetry for the northern Chilean and Japan Trench subduction zones. The correlations show only a weak influence of oceanic-plate structure and faulting on seismicity in the upper plane of the double seismic zone, which may imply that hydration is limited by slow reaction kinetics at low temperatures in the oceanic crust 5–7 km below the seafloor and by the finite amount of exposed wall rock in the outer-rise region. These factors seem to limit hydration even if abundant water is available.

Seismicity in the lower plane is, in contrast, substantially enhanced where deformation of the oceanic plate is high and distributed across intersecting faults. This likely leads to an increase in the volume of damaged wall rock around the faults, thereby promoting the circulation of water to mantle depths where serpentinization is faster due to elevated temperatures. Increased lower-plane seismicity around the projection of subducting oceanic features such as seamounts or fracture zones to depth may also be caused by enhanced faulting around these features. Our results provide a possible explanation for the globally observed presence of rather homogeneous upper-plane seismicity in double seismic zones as well as for the commonly patchy and inhomogeneous distribution of lower-plane seismicity.

How to cite: Sippl, C., Geersen, J., and Harmon, N.: Inferring the hydration of downgoing oceanic crust and lithospheric mantle from intermediate-depth earthquakes and outer rise faulting patterns, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13549, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13549, 2022.

Teleseismic body-wave tomography represents a powerful tool to study regional velocity structure of the upper mantle. Particularly, a need of retrieving anisotropic signal calls for processing of a huge amount of P-wave travel times (Munzarová et al., GJI 2018).  Therefore, automatic picking procedures are needed to supply tomography codes with a large amount of highly accurate absolute arrival times and/or travel-time residuals of body-wave propagation. We present and test a fully automated tool - TimePicker 2017 (Vecsey et al., 2021) for measuring P-wave arrival times on array recordings of passive experiments. The TimePicker 2017 is developed in the ObsPy/Python platform (Krischer et al., 2015) which combines picking, waveform cross-correlation and beamforming. The picker is based on two-step signal cross-correlations and allows us to measure absolute arrival times. Instead of a subjective selection of a reference trace, it cross-correlates all pairs of traces and forms a reference low-noise beam trace as a stack of the shifted traces at all stations. The picker cross-correlates all signals to the reference beam, automatically identifies outliers, and complements all picked absolute arrival times by their error estimates.

We applied the TimePicker 2017 on a set of seismograms from 1920 earthquakes from epicentral distances greater than 30° recorded at 240 temporary and permanent stations involved in the AlpArray experiments. We show uncertainties of measured P-wave arrivals, means and medians of uncertainties for both the complete dataset as well as for subset selected for tomography, and test effects of the standard selection of a reference trace vs. the low-noise beam trace as the reference trace in the TimePicker 2017.

How to cite: Vecsey, L. and Plomerová, J.: TimePicker 2017 – a fully automatic tool to extract P-wave arrivals for high-resolution unravelling structure and fabric of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13550, 2022.

EGU22-284 | Presentations | GD6.2

Imprints of Crust- and Mantle-Scale Deformation in Central Anatolide-Tauride Region: Exploiting Receiver Functions 

Derya Keleş, Tuna Eken, Andrea Licciardi, Christian Schiffer, and Tuncay Taymaz

Central Anatolia is a seismically active region with complex tectonic provinces and represents one of the significant regions experiencing active deformation in Turkey. It involves the Anatolide-Tauride Block settled in southern Anatolia that is separated from the Pontides by the İzmir-Ankara-Erzincan Suture Zone (IAESZ). In central Anatolia, the Kırşehir Massif mainly comprises complex crystalline metamorphic and plutonic rocks with obducted ophiolitic fragments. It is detached from the Anatolide-Tauride Block by the Intra-Tauride Suture (ITS). The ITS is thought to represent the footprint of subducted Neo-Tethyan ocean. This region further includes a number of active tectonic features, i.e., the Central Anatolian Fault Zone (CAFZ), the Tuz Gölü Fault (TGZ), the East Anatolian Fault zone (EAFZ), the Dead Sea Fault (DSF), and the Bitlis-Zagros Suture. In order to investigate the style of deformation of the region and its influence on the crustal and lithospheric structure and to better understand the relationship between tectonic features and regional deformation at different depth and tectonic features, we quantify the strength and orientation of seismic anisotropy. To achieve this, we focus on the directional dependence of P-to-S converted teleseismic waves (i.e., receiver functions) through the harmonic decomposition analysis. Our findings indicate that seismic anisotropy is mostly localized in the mid-crust (15-25 km) with an overall NE-SW and NNW-SSE orientation in the west and east portions of the study area which is present in the mid-crust (15-25 km). In the uppermost mantle, we observed NE-SW oriented and relatively strong anisotropy. This is compatible with fast shear wave azimuths inferred from SKS splitting measurements reported in previous studies and likely be associated with a sub-lithospheric origin. Anisotropic orientations found at crustal and upper mantle depths are consistent with a model of the ITS reaching to great depths suggest anisotropic fabrics in frozen related to past deformation events. We further perform a joint inversion of receiver functions with apparent S wave velocities to better constrain crustal thickness estimates derived from the harmonic decomposition analysis. The resulting crustal thicknesses vary from about 25-28 km nearby the EAFZ and DSF, and to ~35 and 40 km beneath the Kırşehir block and the Eastern Tauride Mountains.

How to cite: Keleş, D., Eken, T., Licciardi, A., Schiffer, C., and Taymaz, T.: Imprints of Crust- and Mantle-Scale Deformation in Central Anatolide-Tauride Region: Exploiting Receiver Functions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-284, 2022.

EGU22-370 | Presentations | GD6.2

Investigating the response of seismic anisotropy in the crust to the 2014–15 Bárðarbunga-Holuhraun dyke intrusion and eruption 

Conor Bacon, Elisavet Baltas, Jessica Johnson, Robert White, and Nicholas Rawlinson

Existing evidence points towards the evolution of magmatic intrusions being a complex function of both existing structures and the stress state within the crust. Consequently, developing means to make in-situ measurements and effective models of these two factors would provide crucial insight into the dynamics of volcanic systems, feeding forward to volcanic monitoring and crisis response agencies. Seismic anisotropy—the directional dependence of seismic wavespeeds—has been shown to be a direct proxy for the in-situ stress state of the crust, as well as the existing fabric, but its potential for further developing our general understanding of magmatic intrusions has yet to be realised. The wealth of geophysical data recorded during eruptions in the last decade presents a unique opportunity to explore these important natural phenomena in exceptional detail.

We first establish a general model for the bulk properties and structure of upper crust in the central highlands of Iceland by analysing shear-wave splitting (SWS), a common and near-unambiguous indicator of seismic anisotropy. Using this model as a starting point, we subsequently explore the evolution of seismic anisotropy before, during, and after the 2014–15 Bárðarbunga-Holuhraun dyke intrusion and eruption. Seismicity associated with this magmatic intrusion was used to capture the spatial evolution through time of this event in unprecedented detail. Persistent seismicity at “knot points” along the path of the dyke intrusion allow us to negate the effect of changes to source-receiver path on the measured variations in seismic anisotropic properties.

Our preliminary work suggests the far-field response of seismic anisotropy to the intrusion can be explained by existing models relating the stress field to the orientation of the fast direction. It is apparent, however, that this simple model fails to explain sufficiently our observations in the near field. Whether this is due to shortfalls in the stress modelling, the influence of the presence of melt along the raypath, or potentially a breakdown in the established relationship between stress and seismic anisotropy remains unclear.

How to cite: Bacon, C., Baltas, E., Johnson, J., White, R., and Rawlinson, N.: Investigating the response of seismic anisotropy in the crust to the 2014–15 Bárðarbunga-Holuhraun dyke intrusion and eruption, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-370, 2022.

EGU22-1166 | Presentations | GD6.2

On singularity point for acoustic orthorhombic model 

Alexey Stovas

The singularity points are very important for elastic waves propagation in low-symmetry anisotropic media (Stovas et al., 2021a). Being converted into the group velocity domain, they result in internal refraction cone with anomalous amplitudes and very complicated polarization fields. I analyze the conditional singularity point in acoustic orthorhombic (ORT) model which is very popular in processing and analysis of 3D seismic data. The elliptic ORT model has one singularity point in one of the symmetry planes (Stovas et al., 2021b). The elastic ORT model has 1 to 6 singularity points. It is shown that for acoustic ORT model the only one S1-S2 wave singularity point (per quadrant) can conditionally be defined in-between the symmetry planes. The required conditions and position of singularity point are computed. The projection of the slowness vector    for singularity point are given by

where are the elements of the stiffness coefficients matrix. I show that the singularity point for this model has the stable conical type of degeneracy (Shuvalov, 1998), which means that the internal refraction cone is always represented by ellipse in 3D space. The slowness surface for acoustic orthorhombic model that consists of three sheets corresponding to P (the inner one) and S1-S2 waves. The image of singularity point in the group domain and its three projections on the symmetry planes can be computed analytically.

 

References

Shuvalov, A.L., 1998, Topological features of the polarization fields of plane acoustic waves in anisotropic media, Proc. R. Soc. Lond., A., 454, 2911–2947.

Stovas, A., Roganov, Yu., and V. Roganov, 2021a, Geometrical characteristics of P and S wave phase and group velocity surfaces in anisotropic media, Geophysical Prospecting, 68(1), 53-69.

Stovas, A., Roganov, Yu., and V. Roganov, 2021b, Wave characteristics in elliptical orthorhombic medium, Geophysics, 86(3), C89-C99.

How to cite: Stovas, A.: On singularity point for acoustic orthorhombic model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1166, 2022.

Presence of the Etendeka continental flood basalts in northwestern Namibia, at the eastern extension of Walvis Ridge toward the African coast, is taken as evidence for the assumption that this region was affected by the Tristan da Cunha mantle plume during the rifting/break-up process between Africa and South America. Investigation of seismic anisotropy can provide further evidence for the cause-and-effect relationship between mantle flow, lithospheric deformation and surface structures. We investigate seismic anisotropy beneath NW Namibia by splitting analysis of core-refracted teleseismic shear waves (SKS family). The waveform data was obtained from two different GEOFON seismic networks in the region. The XC network with 5 stations, which has been operating for two years since 1998 and 6A network with 40 stations including both land and off-shore (OBS) stations, operated for longer than two years in 2010-2012.

The data was analyzed using the SplitRacer software and the results of joint splitting analysis assuming a one-layer of anisotropy are presented here. The less-noisy waveform data from the land stations provide reliable and consistent measurements. We obtained few reliable measurements from the OBS stations due to higher noise level and ambiguity about the sensor orientation. The majority of our fast directions exhibit an NE-SW direction consistent with the regional trend of seismic anisotropy in western Africa compatible with a model of large-scale mantle flow due to the NE-ward motion of the African plate. In the northern part of the study area, we observe an anti-clockwise rotation of the splitting polarization directions that seems to be caused by the Kaoko belt and the Puros shear zone. Based on the short-scale variation of the splitting parameters in this region, we believe that the cause of the lateral variation in SKS-splitting observation is the shallow lithospheric structure rather than a variation of deep mantle flow. Our results does not show any direct plume related observations in the study region.

How to cite: komeazi, A., Rümpker, G., and Kaviani, A.: Investigation of mantle anisotropy in NW Namibia by shear-wave splitting analysis: evidence for large-scale mantle flow and fossil-anisotropy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2576, 2022.

EGU22-3042 | Presentations | GD6.2

3D transversely isotropic shear-wave velocity structure of India and Tibet from joint modeling of Rayleigh and Love waves group velocity dispersion. 

Siddharth Dey, Monumoy Ghosh, Rupak Banerjee, Shubham Sharma, Supriyo Mitra, and Shankar Bhattacharya

We use regional Rayleigh and Love wave data, from 4750 earthquakes (M >= 4.0) recorded at 726 stations across India and Tibet, to compute fundamental mode group velocity dispersion between 10 s and 120 s, using the Multiple Filter Technique (MFA). These result in the dense coverage of 14,706 and 14,898 ray-paths for Rayleigh and Love waves, respectively. The dispersion data at discrete periods have been combined through a ray-theory based tomographic formulation to obtain 2D maps of lateral variation in group velocities, where the best resolution is upto 2.5° and 4° for Rayleigh and Love waves tomographic maps, respectively. The Peninsular Shield, the Himalayan foreland basin, the Himalayan collision-zone and the Tibetan Plateau, have been sampled at unprecedented detail. Rayleigh and Love wave dispersion curves, at each node point of the tomography, have been inverted for 1D isotropic shear-wave velocity structure of Vsv and Vsh, respectively, which are combined to obtain 3D Vsv and Vsh structures across India and Tibet. We jointly invert the two datasets at each node to obtain an isotropic 1D velocity structure. The isotropic inversion fits the two datasets reasonably well, however, the misfit in the dispersion dataset both at high and low periods is high. For this, we incorporate radial anisotropy in the velocity structure and parameterize the crust with three layers and upper mantle with two layers. Assuming this radially anisotropic earth structure, we use Genetic Algorithms (GA) to explore the model space extensively. The synthetic dispersion curves are computed using Thomson-Haskell method with reduced delta matrix. The free parameters used in the inversion are VPH and VSH, layer thickness (h) and Vs anisotropy represented by Xi (ξ=VSH/VSV)2. The non-linear inversion technique converges to a best-fitting model by iteratively minimising the misfit between the observed and the data. The 2D group velocity dispersion heterogeneities, the 3D structures of Vsv and Vsh (both isotropic and transversely isotropic) will be presented with a focus to characterize a) the structure of the Indian plate and it’s extent of underthrusting beneath Tibet, and b) to quantify the low-velocity zone at the base of the Himalayan wedge, across the basal decollement, which ruptures in megathrust earthquakes.

How to cite: Dey, S., Ghosh, M., Banerjee, R., Sharma, S., Mitra, S., and Bhattacharya, S.: 3D transversely isotropic shear-wave velocity structure of India and Tibet from joint modeling of Rayleigh and Love waves group velocity dispersion., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3042, 2022.

EGU22-3339 | Presentations | GD6.2

Evidence for Anisotropy in the Innermost Inner Core from the Earthquake Coda-correlation Wavefield 

Thuany Costa de Lima, Hrvoje Tkalčić, and Lauren Waszek

Progress on seismic imaging of the Earth’s inner core (IC) is fairly limited by the uneven distribution of sources and receivers; large earthquakes are primarily confined to plate margins, and seismic stations are unevenly deployed on the Earth’s surface. Advances in data processing techniques and new methods are required to bridge new opportunities to probe the centre of our planet and provide us with valuable information on the IC seismic structure and its surrounding dynamics. In this study, we present a newly-developed method based on the global earthquake coda-correlation wavefield to investigate the anisotropic structure of the IC. Anisotropy in seismic velocity is the directional dependence of seismic waves. Under IC pressure and temperature conditions, different phases of iron – the core’s main mineral constituent can stabilize and form elastic anisotropy. Thus, improved constraints on its strength and distribution are required to understand the crystallographic structure of iron in the IC, which is linked to the evolution of its solidification and deformation processes. Here, we stack the cross-correlation functions of the late-coda seismic wavefield (the correlation wavefield) that reverberates within the Earth up to 10 hours after large earthquakes. We analyse the travel times of the I2* correlation feature, a mathematical manifestation of similarity among IC seismic phases with the same slowness detected in global correlograms at small interstation distances (<10°). The I2* spatial sampling offers an unprecedented data coverage of the IC’s central portion, also known as the innermost IC (IMIC), which overcomes the shortage of the traditional approach using PKIKP ray paths sampling. By comparing the time residuals of different paths of I2* propagating through the IC, we confirm the presence of a deep IC structure with anisotropy fundamentally different from the IC’s outer layers. Our observations support an IMIC cylindrical anisotropy model with a slow direction oriented 55° from the Earth’s spin axis. This new evidence reinforces previous inferences on the existence of the IMIC, with implications for our understanding of the core’s geodynamical evolution. In the future, a similar approach could be applied to advance our understanding of anisotropy in the Earth’s mantle.

How to cite: Costa de Lima, T., Tkalčić, H., and Waszek, L.: Evidence for Anisotropy in the Innermost Inner Core from the Earthquake Coda-correlation Wavefield, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3339, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3339, 2022.

EGU22-5322 | Presentations | GD6.2 | Highlight

Constraining Seismic Anisotropy on Mars: New Challenges and First Detection 

Caroline Beghein, Jiaqi Li, James Wookey, Paul Davis, Philippe Lognonné, Martin Schimmel, Eléonore Stutzmann, Matthew Golombek, Jean-Paul Montagner, and William Banerdt

Seismic anisotropy is now commonly studied on Earth and has been detected at various depths, from the crust to the top of the lower mantle, in the lowermost mantle, and in the inner core. In the mantle, observations of seismic anisotropy are often taken as an indication of past or present deformation resulting in the preferential orientation of anisotropic minerals. In the crust, it can come from stress-induced oriented cracks, compositional layering, or crystallographic preferred orientation of minerals. 

While many questions remain regarding the presence and interpretation of seismic anisotropy on Earth, scientists are now faced with new, exciting challenges in trying to constrain the structure of other planetary bodies. One of the goals of NASA’s InSight mission, which landed on Mars in November 2018 and includes a very broadband seismometer, is to constrain Mars interior structure. Compared to seismic studies of Earth, which benefit from the availability of a wealth of high quality data recorded on many seismic stations, difficulties with InSight stem from having only one seismic instrument and only a few high quality events. 

In this study, we analyzed the horizontally polarized (SH)-wave reflections generated from the shallowest crustal layer (layer 1) detected at 8 ± 2 km beneath the InSight lander site by a previous receiver function (RF) study. From Sol 105, when the first low-frequency marsquake was recorded, to Sol 1094, a total of 83 broadband and low-frequency events were detected, but only nine are rated as quality-A with constraints on both their epicentral distance and back azimuth. Of those nine events, we selected four that did not show any interference with mantle triplications generated by the olivine to the wadsleyite phase transition and that had a clear signal after the direct SH phase. A model space search approach enabled us to obtain a range of acceptable SH-wave velocities and layer thicknesses, which we then compared with the RF models of Knapmeyer-Endrun et al. (2021). We found that the acceptable SH-wave speeds are systematically lower than those from the RF study. Since this RF analysis is sensitive to vertically polarized (SV)-waves, we interpret this difference as the signature of radial anisotropy with an anisotropy coefficient 𝜉=(𝑉𝑆𝐻/𝑉𝑆𝑉)2 between 0.7 and 0.9. Modeling of preferred alignment of inclusions shows that dry or fluid-filled cracks/fractures, and igneous inclusions can reproduce the observed radial anisotropy amplitude with VSV>VSH. 

How to cite: Beghein, C., Li, J., Wookey, J., Davis, P., Lognonné, P., Schimmel, M., Stutzmann, E., Golombek, M., Montagner, J.-P., and Banerdt, W.: Constraining Seismic Anisotropy on Mars: New Challenges and First Detection, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5322, 2022.

Teleseismic travel-time tomography remains one of the most popular methods for obtaining images of Earth's upper mantle. However, despite extensive evidence for a seismically anisotropic mantle, assuming an isotropic Earth remains commonplace in such imaging studies. This assumption can result in significant imaging artefacts which in turn may yield misguided inferences regarding mantle dynamics. Using realistic synthetic seismic datasets produced from waveform simulations through elastically anisotropic geodynamic models of subduction, I show how such artefacts manifest in teleseismic P- and S-wave tomography. The anisotropy-induced apparent anomalies are equally problematic in both shear and compressional body wave inversions and the nature of the shear velocity artefacts are dependent on the coordinate system in which the delay times are measured. In general, the isotropic assumption produces distortions in slab geometry and the appearance of large sub- and supra-slab low-velocity zones. I summarise new methods for inverting P- and S-delay times for both isotropic and anisotropic heterogeneity through the introduction of three anisotropic parameters that approximate P and S propagation velocities in arbitrarily orientated hexagonally symmetric elastic media. Through a series of synthetic tomographic inversions, I demonstrate that both teleseismic P- and S-wave delay time data can resolve complex anisotropic heterogeneity likely present in subduction environments. Moreover, including anisotropic parameters into the inversions improves the reconstruction of true isotropic anomalies. Particularly important to the removal of erroneous velocity structure is accounting for dipping fabrics as many imaging artefacts remain when simpler azimuthal anisotropy is assumed. I conclude by highlighting results from recent applications of the anisotropic imaging method to P-wave datasets in the Western US and Mediterranean.

How to cite: VanderBeek, B.: New imaging strategies for constraining upper mantle anisotropy with teleseismic P- and S-wave delay times, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5497, 2022.

Radial seismic anisotropy (RA) designates the difference between the speeds of vertically and horizontally polarized shear waves. RA in the crust can provide information on past tectonic events. Since the amplitude and impact of anisotropic are smaller than the variation of velocity, it is more difficult to distinguish whether radially anisotropic anomalies are driven by the structure or uncertainty. Hence, a lack of considering uncertainty and trade-off here may underestimate radial anisotropy and lead to divergent geodynamical interpretations. The hierarchical transdimensional Bayesian approach is able to provide uncertainty estimates taking fully into account the nonlinearity of the forward problem. Under the Bayesian framework, the mean and the variance of the ensemble containing a large set of models are interpreted as the reference solution and a measure of the model error respectively. 

In our study, we applied a two-step RA inversion of surface wave dispersion and receiver function based on a hierarchical transdimensional Bayesian Monte Carlo search with coupled uncertainty propagation to a temporary broadband array covering all of Sri Lanka. First, we constructed Rayleigh and Love wave phase velocity and errors maps at periods ranging from 0s to 20s. To remove outliers, data uncertainty distribution was expressed as a mixture of a Gaussian and uniform distribution. Next, we inverted local dispersion curves and receiver functions jointly to obtain 1D shear velocity and RA models. The method effectively quantifies the uncertainty of the final crustal shear wave velocity and RA model and shows robust results. The negative RA (Vsv > Vsh) anomalous with low uncertainty found in the mid-lower crust of Central Sri Lanka may show evidence that the charnockite inclusion is associated with the shear zones confined to the cores of some doubly-plunging synforms. In the east Highland Complex, the positive radial anisotropy (Vsh > Vsv) anomalous with low uncertainty may reveal the evidence for sub-horizontal shear zones along the thrust boundary.

How to cite: Ke, K.-Y., Tilmann, F., Ryberg, T., and Dreiling, J.: Radial anisotropy models and their uncertainties beneath Sri Lanka derived from joint inversion of surface wave dispersion and receiver functions using a Bayesian approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5526, 2022.

EGU22-6498 | Presentations | GD6.2

A hybrid computational Framework for 3D anisotropic full-Waveform inversion at a regional scale 

Foivos Karakostas, Andrea Morelli, Irene Molinari, Brandon VanderBeek, and Manuele Faccenda

Seismic anisotropy exists in various depths on Earth. However, computational complexities and limited data coverage often lead many seismic tomographic efforts to neglect it. This isotropic assumption can lead to various misinterpretations, which become more important when the spatial resolution is increased. 

In our project, we aim at constructing, through full-waveform inversion, a 3D seismic model of upper mantle anisotropic structure (approximately 500 km depth) below the Tyrrhenian Sea -- a region of great geodynamic interest mainly because of the Calabro-Ionian subduction zone. 

Here we present the framework and the forward modelling, based on the joint use of SPECFEM3D and AxiSEM software, for the implementation of the so-called "box tomography" [1]. By this, a 3D, anisotropic, model spans the region that we aim to resolve, whereas the rest of the globe is represented by a 1D model with lower resolution. This methodology allows the inclusion of teleseisms -- thus a much larger dataset than allowed by closed-domain modelling, as we can also use numerous seismic events out of the region of interest recorded by the dense network of stations within it. We show that this approach in fact highly improves the coverage of data, that can be used for inversion. 

We use SPECFEM3D for the region of interest and AxiSEM for the global simulation. We process the topography, seismic velocities and anisotropy, in order to construct a realistic 3D input model for the area of interest, that honours the Earth's curvature and transforms the geometry of an a priori model from geographical to Cartesian coordinates, with respect to a point of reference, situated in the middle of the top layer of the constructed mesh. We then process the waveforms, resulting from such forward simulation, with the application of a rotation from the Cartesian coordinates to the geographical ones, in order to perform the inversion with the use of real data of seismic recordings. The forward modelling is then to be used for computation of anisotropic Fréchet kernels and inversion. 

[1] Yder Masson, Barbara Romanowicz, Box tomography: localized imaging of remote targets buried in an unknown medium, a step forward for understanding key structures in the deep Earth, Geophysical Journal International, Volume 211, Issue 1, October 2017, Pages 141–163, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx141

How to cite: Karakostas, F., Morelli, A., Molinari, I., VanderBeek, B., and Faccenda, M.: A hybrid computational Framework for 3D anisotropic full-Waveform inversion at a regional scale, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6498, 2022.

EGU22-7184 | Presentations | GD6.2

Patchwork structure of continental lithosphere captured in 3D body-wave images of its anisotropic fabrics 

Jaroslava Plomerová, Helena Žlebčíková, and Luděk Vecsey

Seismic anisotropy, modelled from propagation of teleseismic longitudinal (P) and shear (S/SKS) waves, provides unique constraints on tectonic fabrics and character of past and present-day deformations of the continental lithosphere in different tectonic environments (e.g., Babuška and Plomerová, Solid Earth Sci. 2020). We evaluate body-wave anisotropic parameters (directional variations of velocities or shear-wave splitting) in 3D and invert for three-dimensional structure of the upper mantle (Munzarová et al., GJI 2018) with no limitation imposed on the symmetry axis orientation into the horizontal or vertical directions. Resulting models of the continental lithosphere are based on data from several passive seismic experiments in Archean, Proterozoic and a variety of Phanerozoic provinces of Europe. We emphasize the importance of the three-dimensional approach of modelling anisotropy to be able to detect tilts of symmetry axes in individual domains of the mantle lithosphere. The extent of the domains is delimited by changes in orientation and strength of anisotropy. Assuming only azimuthal anisotropy, similarly to only isotropy, may create artefacts and lead to spurious interpretations (e.g., VanderBeek and Faccenda, GJI 2021). Prevailingly sub-horizontal preferred orientation of olivine, the most abundant mantle mineral, arises from mantle convection in newly formed oceanic lithosphere on both sides of the mid-oceanic ridges. Systematically oriented dipping fabrics in domains of the continental mantle lithosphere reflect series of successive subductions of ancient oceanic plates and their accretions enlarging primordial continent cores. Consequent continental break-ups and assemblages of wandering micro-plates preserve “frozen” anisotropic fabrics and create patchwork structures of the present-day continents.

How to cite: Plomerová, J., Žlebčíková, H., and Vecsey, L.: Patchwork structure of continental lithosphere captured in 3D body-wave images of its anisotropic fabrics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7184, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7184, 2022.

EGU22-7201 | Presentations | GD6.2

Olivine texture evolution under simple deformation: Comparing different numerical methods for calculating LPO and anisotropic viscosity 

Yijun Wang, Ágnes Király, Clinton Phillips Conrad, Lars Hansen, and Menno Fraters

The development of olivine texture, or lattice preferred orientation (LPO), has been implemented in many numerical modelling tools to predict seismic anisotropy, which places constraints on mantle dynamics. However, a few recent studies have linked olivine texture development to its mechanical anisotropy, which in turn can affect deformation rates and also the resulting texture. To study the effect of anisotropic viscosity (AV) and LPO evolution in geodynamics processes, it is important to know the role of AV and LPO and the differences between the numerical methods that calculate them.

The modified director method parameterizes the olivine LPO formation as relative rotation rates along the slip systems that participate in the rotation of olivine grains due to finite deformation. When it is coupled with a micromechanical model for olivine AV, it allows the anisotropic texture to modify the viscosity. We compare the olivine textures predicted by the modified director method both with and without a coupled micromechanical model and textures predicted by the D-Rex LPO evolution model. To do this, we recalculate the texture observed in simple 3D models such as a shear box model and two other well-understood models: a corner flow model and a subduction model. 

In general, we observed that the D-Rex models predict a stronger anisotropic texture compared to the texture predicted by the modified director method both with and without the micromechanical model, in agreement with previous studies. When including the micromechanical model, the anisotropic texture changes the observed strain rates, which allows for a slightly faster texture evolution that is more similar to the D-Rex predictions than it is to those produced by the modified director method alone. We found that even for the simplest settings there is an increase of 10~15% in strain rate during deformation until a strain of 2.5. When shearing the asthenosphere over ~10 Myr, such anisotropy could modify the effective viscosity of the mantle,causing an up to 40% increase in plate velocity for the same applied stress. The anisotropy can also induce deformation in planes other than the initial shear plane, which can change the direction of the primary deformation.

Our ultimate goal is to understand the role of AV and LPO evolution in geodynamic processes by looking at deformation paths predicted by geodynamic models in ASPECTWith this initial test, we will gain a basic understanding of olivine AV behavior and LPO evolution under different deformation settings calculated with different numerical methods, which we will carry onto our next step of implementing anisotropic viscosity of olivine in 3D into ASPECT.

How to cite: Wang, Y., Király, Á., Conrad, C. P., Hansen, L., and Fraters, M.: Olivine texture evolution under simple deformation: Comparing different numerical methods for calculating LPO and anisotropic viscosity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7201, 2022.

EGU22-7807 | Presentations | GD6.2

New insights into tomographic image interpretation and upper mantle dynamics by combining geodynamic modelling and seismological methods 

Rosalia Lo Bue, Francesco Rappisi, Brandon Paul Vanderbeek, and Manuele Faccenda

Earth’s crust and upper mantle (above 400 km) exhibit strong anisotropic fabrics which reflect the strain history of the rocks and can provide important constraints on mantle dynamics and tectonics. Although the well-established anisotropic structure of Earth’s upper mantle, the influence of elastic anisotropy on the seismic tomography remains largely ignored. It is in fact commonplace to neglect the effects of seismic anisotropy in the construction of tomographic models assuming an isotropic Earth. This approximation certainly simplifies the computational approach but can introduce notable imaging artefacts hence errors in the interpretation of the tomographic results.

Here, we want to bring new insights into the 3D upper mantle structure and dynamics by combining geodynamic modelling and seismological methods taking into account seismic anisotropy.

An ideal environment for studying seismic anisotropy and related geodynamic processes is the Central-Western Mediterranean, that, in the last 20-30 million years, has experienced a complex tectonic activity characterized by back-arc extension related to slab retreat in the Liguro-Provençal, Alborean, Algerian and Tyrrhenian basins and episodes of slab break-off, lateral tearing and interactions between slabs.

Firstly, we apply the modelling methodology of Lo Bue et al., 2021 to reproduce the geodynamic evolution of the study region over the last ∼20-30 Myr. We validate this geodynamic model by comparing seismological synthetics (e.g., SKS splitting) and major tectonic features (i.e., slab and trench geometry) with observations. Next, we use the elastic tensors of the present-day modelled Mediterranean set-up to performed 3D P-wave anisotropic tomography by inverting synthetics delay times as in VanderBeek and Faccenda, 2021 validated through comparison with the geodynamic reference model.

In this work, we attempt to answer some fundamental questions. Compared to Lo Bue et al., 2021 how does using a more complex initial geometry affect the geodynamic modelling result? How well does P-wave anisotropic tomography recover the isotropic and anisotropic features? By performing purely isotropic inversions, which are the main artefacts introduced in the tomographic image by neglecting seismic anisotropy? How much the vertical smearing effect bias P-wave tomographic models?

 

References

Lo Bue, R., Faccenda, M., & Yang, J. (2021). The role of adria plate lithospheric structures on the recent dynamics of the central mediterranean region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 126(10), e2021JB022377.

VanderBeek, B. P., & Faccenda, M. (2021). Imaging upper mantle anisotropy with teleseismic p- wave delays: Insights from tomographic reconstructions of subduction simulations. Geophysical Journal International, 225(3), 2097–2119.

How to cite: Lo Bue, R., Rappisi, F., Vanderbeek, B. P., and Faccenda, M.: New insights into tomographic image interpretation and upper mantle dynamics by combining geodynamic modelling and seismological methods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7807, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7807, 2022.

For the understanding of deformational mechanism and geodynamics of a tectonic set up, the source localization and central depth of anisotropy plays a vital role. Though mantle dynamics and deformation patterns can be understood from studying the shear wave splitting mechanism, the true interpretation of under earth mechanism governing the geodynamics remains little biased and unrealistic without the  proper justification and identification of the source localization and depth of anisotropy. Our present study is focused on the possible central depth determination and source localization of anisotropy beneath the Sikkim Himalayan region based upon the well-established spatial coherency method of Splitting parameters, an improved and dynamic principle of grid search analysis based on the Fresnel zone concept. The principle is based upon the maximum coherency relation between the splitting parameters suggested by a minimization in the variation factor as a function of true depth of the anisotropy. Sikkim Himalaya, sandwiched between the central Nepal Himalaya and the eastern Bhutan Himalaya, demarcates the distinct change in the width of the Himalayan foreland basin and the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), which is a part of the active deforming eastern Himalayan fold axis and thrust belt. The Spatial coherency analysis of splitting parameters suggests the central depth of heterogeneity at around 130 km beneath this Sikkim Himalayan region as a consequence of the deformation patterns governed by the complex lithospheric mass at this particular depth.

 

KEYWORDS

Spatial coherency, Shear wave splitting, Sikkim Himalaya, lithosphere.

How to cite: Biswal, S., Dey, G., and Mohanty, D. D.: Implications on source localization and central depth of anisotropy beneath the Sikkim Himalaya: an appraisal on lithospheric deformation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9402, 2022.

EGU22-10088 | Presentations | GD6.2

Quantifying the effective seismic anisotropy produced by a ridge-transform model 

Thomas Bodin, Alexandre Janin, Milena Marjanovic, Cecile Prigent, Yann Capdeville, Sebastien Chevrot, and Stephanie Durand

Global tomographic models depict long-wavelength azimuthal anisotropy in the oceanic upper mantle, with a fast axis direction orthogonal to divergent plate boundaries. This anisotropy is usually attributed to the Lattice Preferred Orientation (LPO) of olivine due to asthenospheric mantle flow away from the ridge axis. In this work, we want to test an alternative hypothesis, whether this observed anisotropic signal could be partially explained by the presence of transform faults and associated fracture zones in the lithosphere. The transform plate boundaries represent sharp structures perpendicular to the ridge-axis with the wavelength (˜10 km), which is much smaller than the wavelength of seismic surface waves used to image the mantle (˜100 km). Therefore, transform faults could potentially result in an effective anisotropy in tomographic images through their Shape Preferred Orientation (SPO). We base our calculations on several thermo-chemical models that follow the observed ridge-transform geometry at different spreading rates. To produce the effective medium as seen by long-period waves, we use a non-periodic homogenization algorithm. The resulting seismic velocity field can be interpreted as the tomographic image that would be obtained after inverting long-period seismic data; it is smooth, fully anisotropic, and comparable to actual tomographic models.

How to cite: Bodin, T., Janin, A., Marjanovic, M., Prigent, C., Capdeville, Y., Chevrot, S., and Durand, S.: Quantifying the effective seismic anisotropy produced by a ridge-transform model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10088, 2022.

EGU22-11315 | Presentations | GD6.2

Differential SKS-SKKS splitting due to lowermost mantle anisotropy beneath North America measured from beamformed SmKS phases 

Jonathan Wolf, Maureen D Long, Daniel A Frost, Adeolu O Aderoju, Neala Creasy, Edward Garnero, and Ebru Bozdag

Differential SKS-SKKS splitting is often interpreted as evidence for lowermost mantle anisotropy, because while SKS and SKKS raypaths are very similar in the upper mantle, they diverge substantially in the lowermost mantle. While discrepant SKS-SKKS splitting is a valuable tool to probe D'' anisotropy, individual measurements are typically noisy and have large scatter, making interpretation challenging. Array techniques are commonly used in observational seismology to enhance signal-to-noise ratios and extract seismic phases that would not be reliably detectable in single seismograms. Such techniques, however, have rarely been applied to resolve seismic anisotropy via shear wave splitting. In this study, we apply stacking and beamforming for different subarrays across the USArray to analyze SKS-SKKS splitting discrepancies measured across the North American continent. A benchmarking exercise demonstrates that the effect of upper mantle anisotropy on the beamformed phases can be understood as a relatively simple average of splitting over different upper mantle volumes, and that discrepant measurements reflect a contribution from the lowermost mantle. We obtain robust differential splitting intensity measurements for beamformed data from a selection of events that occurred in the western Pacific and Scotia subduction zones. This approach yields a robust set of splitting intensity discrepancy values for phases that sample the lowermost mantle beneath North America and the surrounding region, with much less scatter than comparable datasets based on individual seismograms. We find evidence for several distinct regions with strong anisotropy at the base of the mantle beneath our study region, plausibly due to subduction-related lowermost mantle flow and deformation. 

How to cite: Wolf, J., Long, M. D., Frost, D. A., Aderoju, A. O., Creasy, N., Garnero, E., and Bozdag, E.: Differential SKS-SKKS splitting due to lowermost mantle anisotropy beneath North America measured from beamformed SmKS phases, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11315, 2022.

EGU22-11438 | Presentations | GD6.2

Numerical modelling of strain localization by anisotropy evolution during 2D viscous simple shearing 

William Halter, Emilie Macherel, Thibault Duretz, and Stefan M. Schmalholz

Strain localization and associated softening mechanisms in a deforming lithosphere are important for subduction initiation or the generation of tectonic nappes during orogeny. Many strain localization and softening mechanisms have been proposed as being important during the viscous, creeping, deformation of the lithosphere, such as thermal softening, grain size reduction, reaction-induced softening or anisotropy development. However, which localization mechanism is the controlling one and under which deformation conditions is still contentious. In this contribution, we focus on strain localization in viscous material due to the generation of anisotropy, for example due to the development of a foliation. We numerically model the generation and evolution of anisotropy during two-dimensional viscous simple shear in order to quantify the impact of anisotropy development on strain localization and on the effective softening. We calculate the finite strain ellipse during viscous deformation. The aspect ratio of the finite strain ellipse serves as proxy for the magnitude and evolution of anisotropy, which determines the ratio of normal to tangential viscosity. To track the orientation of the anisotropy during deformation we apply a director method. We benchmark our implementation of anisotropy by comparing results of two independently developed numerical algorithms based on the finite difference method: one algorithm employs a direct solver and the other a pseudo-transient iterative solver. We will present results of our numerical simulations and discuss their application to natural shear zones.

How to cite: Halter, W., Macherel, E., Duretz, T., and Schmalholz, S. M.: Numerical modelling of strain localization by anisotropy evolution during 2D viscous simple shearing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11438, 2022.

EGU22-12169 | Presentations | GD6.2

Surface wave detectability of transition zone anisotropy induced by non-Newtonian mantle flow 

John Keith Magali, Sébastien Merkel, and Estelle Ledoux

Large-scale anisotropy inferred from long-period seismic tomography mainly results from the crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO) of olivine aggregates due to mantle deformation. In the 410-km transition zone, the inclusion of wadsleyite CPO diminishes the overall anisotropy. This may predispose the latter below the seismic detection limit.  In this study, we attempt to assess the detectability of the anisotropy in the 410-km transition zone using surface wave dispersion measurements. Proceeding as a purely-forward approach, we consider non-Newtonian mantle flows reminiscent to the deformation by dislocation creep of olivine. A wadsleyite layer is imposed underneath the discontinuity down to a depth of 520 km. We model the CPO development in olivine and in wadsleyite using a visco-plastic self-consistent (VPSC) approach. Finally, we compute local surface wave dispersion curves and its azimuthal variations to study the surface imprint of transition zone anisotropy.  We anticipate the sensitivity kernels to as well provide key insights in evaluating its detectability.

How to cite: Magali, J. K., Merkel, S., and Ledoux, E.: Surface wave detectability of transition zone anisotropy induced by non-Newtonian mantle flow, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12169, 2022.

EGU22-13364 | Presentations | GD6.2

Seismic anisotropy beneath the western part of the Carpathian-Pannonianregion inferred from combined SKS splitting and mantle xenolith studies 

Nóra Liptai, Zoltán Gráczer, Gyöngyvér Szanyi, Bálint Süle, László Aradi, György Falus, Götz Bokelmann, Máté Timkó, Gábor Timár, Sierd Cloetingh, Csaba Szabó, and István Kovács and the AlpArray Working Group

Information on mantle anisotropy can be obtained from methods such as
studying the lattice-preferred orientation (LPO) in mantle peridotites,
or conducting shear-wave splitting (SKS) analyses which allow to
determine whether it is a single or multi-layered anisotropy and the
delay time of the fast and slow polarized wave can indicate the
thickness. In this study we provide a detailed SKS mapping on the
western part of the Carpathian-Pannonian region (CPR) using an increased
amount of splitting data, and compare the results with seismic
properties reported from mantle xenoliths to characterize the depth,
thickness, and regional differences of the anisotropic layer in the
mantle.
According to the combined SKS and xenolith data, mantle anisotropy is
different in the northern and the central/southern part of the western
CPR. In the northern part, the lack of azimuthal dependence of the fast
split S-wave indicates a single anisotropic layer, which agrees with
xenolith data from the Nógrád-Gömör volcanic field. In the central
areas, multiple anisotropic layers are suggested by systematic azimuthal
variations in several stations, which may be explained by two,
petrographically and LPO-wise different xenolith subgroups described in
the Bakony-Balaton Highland. The shallower layer is suggested to have a
‘fossilized’ lithospheric structure, which could account for the
occasionally detected E-W fast S-orientations, whereas the deeper one
reflects structures responsible for the regional NW-SE orientations
attributed to the present-day convergent tectonics. In the Styrian
Basin, results are ambiguous as SKS splitting data hints at the presence
of multiple anisotropic layers, however, it is not supported clearly by
xenolith data.
Spatial coherency analysis of the splitting parameters put the center of
the anisotropic layer at ~140-150 km depth under the Western
Carpathians, which implies a total thickness of ~220-240 km. Thickness
calculated from seismic properties of the xenoliths resulted in lower
values on average, which may be explained by heterogeneous sampling by
xenoliths, or the different orientation of the mineral deformation
structures (foliation and lineation).

How to cite: Liptai, N., Gráczer, Z., Szanyi, G., Süle, B., Aradi, L., Falus, G., Bokelmann, G., Timkó, M., Timár, G., Cloetingh, S., Szabó, C., and Kovács, I. and the AlpArray Working Group: Seismic anisotropy beneath the western part of the Carpathian-Pannonianregion inferred from combined SKS splitting and mantle xenolith studies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13364, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13364, 2022.

EGU22-574 | Presentations | CR2.1

Development of a permittivity sensor for melting probes to explore terrestrial and extraterrestrial cryospheres 

Fabian Becker, Pia Friend, and Klaus Helbing

We will present the design of a permittivity sensor that can be attached to a melting probe and measure the respective ice properties during the melting process, yielding in a comprehensive permittivity profile. Melting probes were already successfully applied in terrestrial cryospheres, such as alpine glaciers and Antarctica. Further applications to cross the ice shield on Dome C in Antarctica or even on icy moons in the outer solar system, such as Europa, are already planned e.g. within the TRIPLE project line funded by the German aerospace center. A sensor measuring the permittivity of the surrounding ice in situ during melting could provide valuable data about the ice properties. The respective density of the ice is correlated with the permittivity, or volcanic ash layers can be identified through permittivity measurements. Another usage of the data could be to correct distance measurements from radar travel times within the ice.

The sensor is designed to operate in the frequency range of 0.1 - 1.5 GHz and works in the range of the near field, which is defined to be within one wavelength, corresponding to the frequency. The concept of this sensor is based on an open coaxial probe, which is connected to the medium of interest. The measurement principle and calibration techniques, as well as first lab measurement results of ice and other materials will be presented. A comprehensive data set on effects of porosity, salinity and impurities of lab-manufactured ice samples on the permittivity will also be given. These data will help to interpret the taken permittivity profiles of glaciers on further missions.

We will also show how the device can be integrated into a melting probe, such as the TRIPLE melting probe. One major challenge is to ensure good contact to the ice during measurement. The diameter of a melting hole often results to be several cm larger in diameter than the melting probe itself. A mechanism that extends the sensors of the melting probe and press it onto the ice for measurements is being developed. 

How to cite: Becker, F., Friend, P., and Helbing, K.: Development of a permittivity sensor for melting probes to explore terrestrial and extraterrestrial cryospheres, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-574, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-574, 2022.

EGU22-612 | Presentations | CR2.1 | Highlight

Using offsets in airborne radar sounding and laser altimetry to characterize near-surface firn properties over the Greenland ice sheet 

Anja Rutishauser, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Robert S. Fausto, Nanna B. Karlsson, Baptiste Vandecrux, Kirk M. Scanlan, Ghislain Picard, and Signe B. Andersen

In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has experienced a significant increase in surface melting and meltwater runoff, which is now the main contributor to GrIS mass loss. In areas covered by firn, meltwater percolation and refreezing processes can significantly buffer meltwater runoff to the ocean. However, this process leads to the formation of ice layers and an overall firn densification, which is predicted to limit the firns’ meltwater storage capacity in the future. Additionally, the high spatial and temporal variability of ice layer formation and subsequent firn densification can cause large uncertainties in altimetry-derived mass balance estimates. Thus, understanding the spatial and vertical extent of ice layers in the firn is important to estimate the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise.

Due to limited direct observations of firn properties, modeling future meltwater runoff and processes over the rapidly changing GrIS firn facies remains challenging. Here, we present a prospective new technique that leverages concurrent airborne radar sounding and laser altimetry measurements to characterize near-surface firn over spatially extensive areas. We hypothesize that due to their different depth sensitivities, the presence of ice layers in the firn yields an offset between radar sounding- and laser-derived surface elevations (differential altimetry). We compare existing airborne radar and laser measurements to in-situ firn observations and use one-dimensional radar sounding simulations to investigate 1) the sensitivity of the differential altimetry technique to different firn facies, and 2) the techniques’ capability to estimate firn density and firn ice content. Preliminary results over the western GrIS show good correlations between differential altimetry signatures and areas of firn affected by percolation and refreezing processes.

Through this technique, we explore the potential to leverage a wealth of radar sounding measurements conducted at low frequencies (< 200 MHz), that typically do not resolve the firn structure, to derive near-surface firn properties. Finally, we apply the differential altimetry technique to data collected as part of NASA’s Operation IceBridge between 2009-2019 to derive spatio-temporal changes in the GrIS firn in response to climatic conditions, in particular the formation of ice layers and changes in firn ice content. Our results can help reduce uncertainties in satellite-derived mass balance measurements and improve firn models, which both contribute to reducing uncertainties in current and projected GrIS contributions to global sea-level rise.

How to cite: Rutishauser, A., Ahlstrøm, A. P., Fausto, R. S., Karlsson, N. B., Vandecrux, B., Scanlan, K. M., Picard, G., and Andersen, S. B.: Using offsets in airborne radar sounding and laser altimetry to characterize near-surface firn properties over the Greenland ice sheet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-612, 2022.

EGU22-942 | Presentations | CR2.1

Towards assembling the internal ice stratigraphy in coastal regions of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica 

Reinhard Drews, Inka Koch, Falk Oraschewski, Mohammadreza Ershadi, Leah Sophie Muhle, Heiko Spiegel, Vjeran Visnjevic, Guy Moss, Jakob Macke, Steven Franke, Daniela Jansen, Daniel Steinhage, and Olaf Eisen

The internal ice stratigraphy as imaged by radar is an integrated archive of the atmospheric- oceanographic, and ice-dynamic history that the ice sheet has experienced. It provides an observational constraint for ice flow modeling that has been used for instance to predict age-depth relationships at prospective ice-coring sites in Antarctica’s interior. The stratigraphy is typically more disturbed and more difficult to image in coastal regions due to faster ice flow. Yet, knowledge of ice stratigraphy across ice shelf grounding lines and further seawards is important to help constrain ocean-induced melting and associated stability.

Here, we present preliminary results of synthesizing information from radar stratigraphic characteristics from airborne and ground-based radar surveys that have been collected for specific projects starting from the 1990s onwards focusing on ice marginal zones of Antarctica. The key data is based on airborne surveys from the German Alfred Wegener Institute’s polar aircrafts equipped with a 150 MHz radar. In the meantime this system has been replaced by an ultra-wide band 150-520 MHz radar. The older data will provide a baseline with extensive coverage that can be used for model calibration and change detection over time. We aim to provide metrics of the radio stratigraphy (e.g. shape and slope of internal reflection horizons) as well as classified prevalent stratigraphy types that can be used to calibrate machine learning approaches such as simulation based inference. The data obtained will be integrated in coordination efforts within the SCAR AntArchitecture Action Group.

How to cite: Drews, R., Koch, I., Oraschewski, F., Ershadi, M., Muhle, L. S., Spiegel, H., Visnjevic, V., Moss, G., Macke, J., Franke, S., Jansen, D., Steinhage, D., and Eisen, O.: Towards assembling the internal ice stratigraphy in coastal regions of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-942, 2022.

EGU22-1002 | Presentations | CR2.1

Application of cosmic ray snow gauges to monitor the snow water equivalent on alpine glaciers 

Rebecca Gugerli, Darin Desilets, and Nadine Salzmann

Temporally continuous measurements of the snow water equivalent (SWE) are a key variable in many hydrological, meteorological and glaciological studies and are of particular importance in high mountain regions. Obtaining temporally continuous, accurate and reliable SWE observations in these harsh environments, however, remains a challenge. Recently, promising results have been achieved by using a neutronic cosmic ray snow gauge (n-CRSG). The n-CRSG device is deployed below the seasonal snowpack and counts fast neutrons from the secondary cascades of cosmic rays, which are efficiently moderated and absorbed by the hydrogen atoms contained in the snowpack. Based on the exponential relationship between neutrons and hydrogen atoms, we can infer SWE from the neutron count rate. We have installed and evaluated a n-CRSG on the Swiss Glacier de la Plaine Morte. Our validation with 22 manual measurements over five winter seasons (2016/17-2020/21) showed an average underestimation of -2% ±10% (one standard deviation).
In the present study, we explore the use of muons instead of neutrons to infer SWE. To this end, we deployed two muonic cosmic ray snow gauges (µ-CRSG), one below and one above the seasonal snowpack, for the winter season 2020/21 on the same glacier site in Switzerland. The difference in count rates between the top and bottom device can be related to the SWE of the snowpack. We derive a first-cut conversion function based on manual SWE observations by means of snow pits and snow cores. To evaluate the measurements by the µ-CRSG, we also compare them to SWE estimates by the n-CRSG. Over the winter season 2020/21, almost up to 2000 mm w.e. were observed. Overall, the µ-CRSG agrees well with the n-CRSG on the evolution of the snowpack at a high temporal resolution and thus demonstrates its great potential. Also, the inferred SWE measurements lie within the uncertainty of manual observations. Furthermore, the µ-CRSG has several advantages over the n-CRSG; It is cheaper, lighter and promises a higher measurement precision due to the improved counting statistics of the muon count rates. We conclude that the µ-CRSG has even greater potential than the n-CRSG to monitor SWE in remote high mountain environments.

How to cite: Gugerli, R., Desilets, D., and Salzmann, N.: Application of cosmic ray snow gauges to monitor the snow water equivalent on alpine glaciers, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1002, 2022.

EGU22-1021 | Presentations | CR2.1

Best practices for collecting polarimetric data with ApRES for constraining ice-fabric orientation and its spatial variability 

Olaf Eisen, Reza Ershadi, Reinhard Drews, Sophie Berger, Da Gong, Yazhou Li, Carlos Martin, and Ole Zeising

In recent years radar polarimetry has re-surfaced as an ideal tool to determine ice-fabric patterns and linked mechanical ice anisotropy. The leap forward was facilitated by coherent data processing often collected by phase-sensitive Radio-Echo-Sounding (pRES) systems at fixed locations. The polarimetric response can either be synthesized from a set of quad-polarimetric measurements or obtained by manually rotating the antennas. Specifics of the data collection in the field varied between the different surveys, and no set of best practices has yet emerged.  Here we present a systematic study that includes more than fifty different combinations of how polarimetric data can be acquired, including:

  • different distances between the transmitter and receiver (2, 4 and 8 m)
  • different combinations in polarization orientation (22.5 deg)
  • a comparison between discrete full azimuthal data collected every 22.5 degrees and synthesized data collected in a quad-pole setup
  • the effect of 180-degree polarization orientation on repeat measurements, e.g., basal melt rate and polarimetric analysis, e.g., coherence phase
  • definition of Horizontal (H) and Vertical (V) orientation is pRES antenna setup and its impact on synthesizing and analyzing data
  • 90-degree fabric orientation ambiguity in polarimetric data

This study aims to provide best practices, considering that observation time in the field is limited. Ideally, this will lead to a unified setup and nomenclature, facilitating better compatibility from data collected by different groups on ice sheets, shelves, and glaciers.

How to cite: Eisen, O., Ershadi, R., Drews, R., Berger, S., Gong, D., Li, Y., Martin, C., and Zeising, O.: Best practices for collecting polarimetric data with ApRES for constraining ice-fabric orientation and its spatial variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1021, 2022.

EGU22-1852 | Presentations | CR2.1

Changes in the internal structure of polythermal glaciers over the last decade: the case study of Fridtjofbreen and Erdmanbreen from 2010 to 2021, Svalbard 

Aleksandr Borisik, Aleksandr Novikov, Ivan Lavrentiev, and Andrey Glazovsky

Glaciers on Svalbard have been shrinking in recent decades in response to current climate change. Most of them have decreased in size, area and surface elevation with stable negative or even accelerated changes in mass balance. Many of them are of the polythermal type, and as they shrink, their thermal regime might also change significantly depending on climate and local parameters, such as distribution of ice facies, firn thickness, and other factors affecting hydrology and glacier movement. In this study, we used data from repeated GPR surveys in 2010/12 and 2020/21 to identify likely changes in the thermal regime of the two polythermal glaciers Fridtjovbreen and Erdmanbreen in the western part of the Nordenskiöldland. These changes we have identified by comparison of changes in the depth of the internal reflection horizon (IRH) which corresponds to the cold-temperate transition surface (CTS) in polythermal glaciers.

Comparison of radio-echo sounding (RES) data obtained along the same transverse and longitudinal transects shows that in the last decade the most prominent CTS changes have occurred in the upper western basin of the Fridtjovbreen, where the mean total ice thickness decreased with rate −0.76 m a-1 (from 151 to 144 m in 9 years), meanwhile the thickness of the temperate ice core decreased with rate −2.52 m a-1 (from 115 to 92 m). As a result, with a general reduction in the thickness of the glacier, its upper cold layer increased from 36 to 52 m. These changes we attribute to the reduction of the firn area in this basin, which resulted in less thermal insulation and water retention and internal refreezing, and, therefore, in the fast cold front penetration into the glacier body with rates more than 3 times higher than the glacier thinning.

How to cite: Borisik, A., Novikov, A., Lavrentiev, I., and Glazovsky, A.: Changes in the internal structure of polythermal glaciers over the last decade: the case study of Fridtjofbreen and Erdmanbreen from 2010 to 2021, Svalbard, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1852, 2022.

EGU22-3030 | Presentations | CR2.1

Arctic Sea-Ice Permittivity Derived from GNSS Reflectometry Data of the MOSAiC Expedition 

Maximilian Semmling, Jens Wickert, Frederik Kreß, Mainul Hoque, Dmitry Divine, Sebastian Gerland, and Gunnar Spreen

Sea ice is a crucial parameter of the Earth’s climate system. Its high albedo compared to water and its insulating effect between ocean and atmosphere influences the oceans’ radiation budget significantly. The importance of monitoring sea-ice properties arises from the high variability of sea ice induced by seasonal change and global warming. GNSS reflectometry can contribute to global monitoring of sea ice with high potential to extend the spatio-temporal coverage of today’s observation techniques. Properties like ice salinity, temperature, thickness and snow cover can affect the signal reflection. The MOSAiC expedition (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) gave us the opportunity to conduct reflectometry measurements under different sea-ice conditions in the central Arctic. A dedicated setup was mounted, in close cooperation with the Alfred-Wegener-Institute (AWI), on the German research icebreaker Polarstern that drifted for one year with the Arctic sea ice.

We present results from data recorded between autumn 2019 and spring 2020. The ship drifted in this period from the Siberian Sector of the Arctic (October 2019), over the central Arctic (November 2019 until May 2020) towards Fram Strait and Svalbard (reached in June 2020). Profiles of sea-ice reflectivity over elevation angle (range: 1° to 45°) are derived with daily resolution considering reflection data recorded at left-handed (LH) and right-handed (RH) circular polarization. Respective predictions of reflectivity are based on reflection models of bulk sea ice or a sea-ice slab. The latter allows to include the effect of signal penetration down to the underlying water. Results of comparison between LH profiles and bulk model confirm a reflectivity decrease (about 10 dB) when surrounding open water areas is reduced (by freezing) and the ship drifts in compact sea ice.

Further results comprise estimates of sea-ice permittivity from mid-elevation range reflectivity (10° to 30°). The median of estimated permittivity 2.4 (period of compact sea ice) lies in the expected range of reported old ice type (mostly second-year ice). The retrieved reflectivity in the low-elevation range (1° to 10°) give strong indication of signal penetration into the dominating second-year ice with influence of sea ice temperature and thickness. We conclude that sea-ice characterization in future can profit form GNSS reflectometry observations. The on-going study is currently extended to the further evolution of Arctic sea ice during winter and spring period of the MOSAiC expedition.

How to cite: Semmling, M., Wickert, J., Kreß, F., Hoque, M., Divine, D., Gerland, S., and Spreen, G.: Arctic Sea-Ice Permittivity Derived from GNSS Reflectometry Data of the MOSAiC Expedition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3030, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3030, 2022.

EGU22-3073 | Presentations | CR2.1 | Highlight

Drone-based GPR system for 4D glacier data acquisition 

Bastien Ruols, Ludovic Baron, and James Irving

Thanks to the excellent propagation characteristics of radar waves in ice, ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has been one of the key geophysical methods used in the field of glaciology over the last 50 years. Alpine glacier GPR surveys are typically performed either directly on the glacier surface (e.g., on foot, skis, or with snowmobiles), or by helicopter several tens of meters above the surface. Helicopter-based surveys allow the coverage of large areas safely and efficiently, but this comes at the expense of reduced resolution of glacier internal structures, particularly in the context of 3D surveys. On the other hand, ice-based acquisitions offer high-resolution opportunities, but are very time-consuming, often risky, and can be physically exhausting to perform. Recent advances in the development of drone technologies open new data acquisition possibilities for glacier GPR data, combining the advantages of both ice and air-based methods.

We have developed a drone-based GPR system that allows for safe and efficient high-resolution 3D and 4D data acquisition on alpine glaciers. Our custom-built GPR instrument uses real-time sampling to record traces of length 2800 ns, which corresponds to a depth of over 200 m in glacier ice. Each trace is stacked over 5000 times and acquired using a sampling frequency of 320 MHz, the latter of which is just enough to avoid aliasing with our single lightweight 70-MHz-center-frequency antenna. Traces are recorded at a rate of 14 Hz, meaning that a drone speed of at least 4 m/s can be considered while maintaining a sufficiently high trace density for high-resolution studies. This is at least four times faster than a conventional survey on foot. The total weight of our GPR system plus single transmit/receive antenna is around 2 kg. The drone used in our work has a maximum payload capacity of about 6 kg and is equipped with a radar-based ground sensor which enables us to follow the glacier surface topography during the flights. An independent differential GPS allows us to locate each recorded GPR trace with decimeter precision.

We performed initial testing of the above-described system in August 2021 on the Otemma glacier and successfully acquired around 70-line kilometers of 3D GPR data, over an 8-day period, covering a large portion of the glacier. In September 2021, we undertook additional fieldwork on the Tsanfleuron and Sex-Rouge glaciers and recorded 30-line kilometers of 3D GPR data in less than 3 days. We could then determine and model with high-precision the ice-thickness distribution over the Tsanfleuron pass. These first field results show the concrete benefit of drone-based GPR glacier surveys and motivate further development towards 3D and 4D studies.

How to cite: Ruols, B., Baron, L., and Irving, J.: Drone-based GPR system for 4D glacier data acquisition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3073, 2022.

EGU22-3192 | Presentations | CR2.1

Strong Ocean Influence on Seasonal Changes in Shallow Shear-Modulus Structure in Alaska 

Toshiro Tanimoto and Jiong Wang

We have developed a method to determine shear-modulus (rigidity) structure for the upper 20-50m of the Earth. The method is based on the analysis of co-located pressure and seismic instruments. We applied this method to about 200 (co-located) stations in Alaska and examined seasonal variation in shallow shear-modulus structure at each site; in this report we quantify this seasonal change by taking the ratio (R) of the highest shear-modulus to the lowest throughout a year and use it as a characteristic feature for each station.

R is smaller than 2 at many stations but there are some stations in and near the Arctic zone that have R larger than 10. Such a large seasonal change implies that there occurs massive melting of shallow permafrost and a significant development of the active layer every summer. As a side product, because of such a huge reduction in near-surface shear-modulus, horizontal amplitudes in seismic noise become 30 times larger in summer than amplitudes in winter.

These seasonal changes may not be surprising because thawing of ice is common every summer in the permafrost region. But regions with large R show a systematic geographic pattern on a large-scale map; large-R stations are typically found near the coast (ocean) and tend to decrease toward the interior of the continent (Alaska and NW Canada). Large R stations are found in the NW Territories in Canada, the North Slope region northern side of the Brooks Range, near the Seaward Peninsula (west), and the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (west). These locations suggest a strong influence by the nearby ocean on the climate at each station. Proximity to the ocean (coast) seems to be an important factor in evaluating periglacial hazards.

There are a few exceptions in the northernmost coastal stations as they show small R despite the fact that they are at the coast. But the ICEsat-2 (satellite) data show that sea ice seems to remain thick near the peninsula (near Barrow, Alaska) much longer than other coastal areas in this study; temperature is colder because of thicker sea ice and the amount of melting at these exception sites remains low. This would strengthen the hypothesis that near-coastal ocean has strong influence on the climate of continental interior.

How to cite: Tanimoto, T. and Wang, J.: Strong Ocean Influence on Seasonal Changes in Shallow Shear-Modulus Structure in Alaska, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3192, 2022.

EGU22-3205 | Presentations | CR2.1 | Highlight

Estimation of snow SWE using passive RFID tags as radar reflectors 

Mathieu Le Breton, Éric Larose, Laurent Baillet, Alec van Herwijnen, and Yves Lejeune

Estimation of snow SWE using passive RFID tags as radar reflectors

Mathieu Le Breton(1,2), Éric Larose(1), Laurent Baillet(1), Alec van Herwijnen(3), Yves Lejeune(4)

(1) Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, ISTerre, Grenoble, France
(2)
Géolithe Innov, Géolithe, Crolles, France
(3)
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
(4)
CEN-CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS, Saint Martin d’Heres, France

 

Passive radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags are used massively to remotely identify industrial goods, and their capabilities offer new ways to monitor the earth’s surface already applied to coarse sediments, landslides, rock fissures and soils (Le Breton et al., 2910, 2020, 2021b). We introduce a method to estimate the variations in snow water equivalent (SWE) of a snowpack using an 865–868 MHz (RFID) system based on commercial off-the-shelf devices. The system consists of a vertical profile of low-cost passive tags installed before the first snowfall, on a structure that is minimally disruptive to the snowpack. The tags are interrogated continuously and remotely by a fixed reader located above the snow. The key measured value is the increase of phase delay, induced by the new layers of fresh snow which slow down the propagation of the waves. The method is tested both in a controlled laboratory environment, and outdoors on the Col de Porte observation site, in order to cross-check the results with a well-documented reference dataset (Lejeune et al., 2019). The experiments demonstrate that SWE can be estimated by this non-contact and non-destructive RFID technique. However, multipath interferences in the snowpack can generate errors up to 40 mm of SWE. This error is mitigated by using multiple tags and antennas placed at different locations, allowing the RFID measurements to remain within +/-10% of the cumulated precipitations (outdoor) and snow weighting (laboratory). In complement, the system can also estimate whether the snow is wet or dry, using temperature sensors embedded in the tags combined with the received signal strength. Using this approach with a mobile reader could allow the non-destructive monitoring of snow properties with a large number of low-cost, passive sensing tags.

 

Publications related to the project:

Le Breton, M., Baillet, L., Larose, E., Rey, E., Benech, P., Jongmans, D., Guyoton, F., Jaboyedoff, M., 2019. Passive radio-frequency identification ranging, a dense and weather-robust technique for landslide displacement monitoring. Eng. Geol. 250, 1–10. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2018.12.027

Le Breton, M., Grunbaum, N., Baillet, L., Larose, É., 2021a. Monitoring rock displacement threshold with 1-bit sensing passive RFID tag (No. EGU21-15305). Presented at the EGU21, Copernicus Meetings. http://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15305

Le Breton, M., Liébault, F., Baillet, L., Charléty, A., Larose, É., Tedjini, S., 2021b. Dense and long-term monitoring of Earth surface processes with passive RFID -- a review. Submitted. Preprint at: https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.11965v1

Lejeune, Y., Dumont, M., Panel, J.-M., Lafaysse, M., Lapalus, P., Le Gac, E., Lesaffre, B., Morin, S., 2019. 57 years (1960–2017) of snow and meteorological observations from a mid-altitude mountain site (Col de Porte, France, 1325 m of altitude). Earth Syst. Sci. Data 11, 71–88. http://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-71-2019

How to cite: Le Breton, M., Larose, É., Baillet, L., van Herwijnen, A., and Lejeune, Y.: Estimation of snow SWE using passive RFID tags as radar reflectors, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3205, 2022.

EGU22-3248 | Presentations | CR2.1

Annual development of subalpine grassland observed with UAV: how NDVI evolution is controlled by snow melting 

Jesús Revuelto, Javier Sobrino, Daniel Gómez, Guillermo Rodriguez-López, Esteban Alonso-González, Francisco Rojas-Heredia, Eñaut Izagirre, Raquel Montorio-Lloveria, Fernando Pérez-Cabello, and Juan Ignacio López-Moreno

In the Pyrenees, as in other mid latitude mountain ranges, sub alpine areas have a long lasting snow cover that affect different mountain processes, including river discharge timing, soil erosion, primary production or animal and plant phenology. This work presents and analyzes a complete snow depth and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) spatial distribution dataset, generated by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) over two years. This study aims to increase the knowledge and understanding of the relationship of the duration and timing of snowmelt and vegetation cover and its annual cycle.

The dataset was obtained in Izas Experimental Catchment, a 55 ha study area located in Central Spanish Pyrenees ranging between 2000 to 2300 m a.s.l., which is mostly covered by grasslands. A total of 18 UAV snow depth and 14 NDVI observations were obtained by a fixed wing UAV equipped with RGB and multispectral cameras during 2020 and 2021. The melt out date for the different areas of the catchment has been obtained from the snow depth distribution dataset, which in turn has been used to analyze the NDVI evolution. The NDVI values for each UAV flight have been correlated with the snow depth distribution observed in previous dates and with different topographic variables as elevation, solar radiation, curvature (through the Topographic Position Index) or slope.

The maximum seasonal NDVI happens throughout the study area simultaneously in the entire study area; however those zones with the latest snow disappearance do not reach NDVI values as high as those observed in areas with earlier snow disappearance. Oppositely areas with the soonest snow melting (in late February) have lower maximum NDVI values that those observed in areas with snow melting occurring later (around May).  NDVI correlations have shown that the snow depth distribution observed about one month prior to each NDVI acquisition has a very important control on pasture phenology. This correlation is particularly evident on the free-snow areas during first melting weeks, with a lower influence in those areas where snow melts at the end of the snow season. This field study exemplifies how intensive UAV acquisitions allow understanding snow processes over extended areas with an unprecedented spatial resolution.

How to cite: Revuelto, J., Sobrino, J., Gómez, D., Rodriguez-López, G., Alonso-González, E., Rojas-Heredia, F., Izagirre, E., Montorio-Lloveria, R., Pérez-Cabello, F., and López-Moreno, J. I.: Annual development of subalpine grassland observed with UAV: how NDVI evolution is controlled by snow melting, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3248, 2022.

EGU22-4179 | Presentations | CR2.1

Hansbreen’s calving-driven ice loss derived from seismic data supported by millimetre-wave radar scans and neural networks 

Wojciech Gajek, William Harcourt, and Dannielle Pearce

Calving of tidewater glaciers is a key driver of glacier mass loss as well as a significant contribution towards sea level rise. However, this dynamic process is still challenging to quantify. In addition, there are very few direct measurements of calving activity in Svalbard at daily to sub-daily resolution due to the requirement of continuous human labour at the calving front for field studies. Seismic instruments in the vicinity of glaciers offer the potential to circumvent this issue since they record ground motion signals, including those generated by calving events, with an unprecedented sub-second resolution. Such data sets are not affected by site conditions like poor visibility or darkness and, in the case of permanent regional seismological stations, already offer long-term datasets. Despite this, a knowledge gap remains which prevents making a direct link between precise calving volumes and seismic records. This study presents our effort made towards obtaining an estimate of volumetric ice loss from integrating seismic records with 3D millimetre-wave radar measurements of a tidewater glacier calving front. In the summer of 2021, an 8-day long time series of integrated measurements was acquired at the calving front of Hansbreen, South Spitsbergen. It included remote sensing observations from a millimetre-wave radar (AVTIS2), Terrestrial Laser Scanner and time-lapse cameras correlated with a seismic dataset from two local arrays deployed at direct vicinity of calving front and a closeby regional permanent seismological station in Hornsund. Integrating these datasets brings an opportunity to correlate visual observations of calving including volumetric ice loss derived from radar scans with seismic signatures registered at nearby seismic arrays. We explore various parameters that characterize observed calving events and develop a model linking chosen parameters with ice loss using machine learning techniques. Local arrays were installed for a limited time and the calibrated parameters are expected to change spatially. Therefore, we further transfer our approach and integrate decade long records from nearby permanent seismological station. Limiting data to a single station record reduces both the accuracy of estimated ice volume and spatial resolution. However, it enables us to apply detection algorithm trained using observed calvings to decade long records and, consequently, to revisit a decade long history of Hansbreen's calving.

How to cite: Gajek, W., Harcourt, W., and Pearce, D.: Hansbreen’s calving-driven ice loss derived from seismic data supported by millimetre-wave radar scans and neural networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4179, 2022.

EGU22-4573 | Presentations | CR2.1

Single-frequency GNSS-IR for estimating snowpack height with consumer grade receivers and antennas 

Giulia Graldi, Simone Rover, and Alfonso Vitti

Ground and space based GNSS-IR (Interferometric Reflectometry) has been used in the last 20 years for characterizing the Earth Surface, together with other remote sensing techniques. Among the physical quantities which can be monitored using these techniques, the characterization of the snow cover is of particular interest since it is an important source of freshwater. The increase of the global temperature due to anthropogenic climate changes is threatening the seasonal recharging, and for this reason monitoring the snow cover is crucial. Ground based GNSS-IR can be used for obtaining information on the height of the snowpack, with a precision of 0.04 m by using geodetic-grade GNSS instruments (such those involved in Continuously Operating Reference Stations - CORS). In the present study, the sensitivity of the retrieval of the snowpack height from data acquired with low cost non-geodetic grade instruments with the GNSS-IR technique is evaluated. The analysis is applied to a flat alpine area in the Lavarone plateau in the Province of Trento, Italy (1400 m above sea level), where GNSS field campaigns were carried out in 2018, 2019 for short time periods (90, 120 minutes) due to constraints of the study area. Single-frequency GPS observations were collected with u-blox M8T GNSS receivers and patch u-blox and Tallysman antennas. Leica antenna and receiver were also used for collecting GPS data in double frequency, in order to acquire reference data with geodetic grade instruments. Given the characteristics of the area, it is possible to consider that GPS signals reflect with specular reflection, and thus modelling the Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) as a function of the distance between the reflecting snow surface above solid ground and the antenna. Multipath frequency associated with snowpack height is retrieved by applying the Lomb Scargle Periodogram on SNR data. The results show that, by applying GNSS-IR technique to data acquired with low-cost receivers and antennas, it is possible to retrieve the height of the snow pack with a standard deviation of about 0.05 m. This demonstrates the feasibility of GNSS-IR also with non-geodetic grade instruments.

How to cite: Graldi, G., Rover, S., and Vitti, A.: Single-frequency GNSS-IR for estimating snowpack height with consumer grade receivers and antennas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4573, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4573, 2022.

Ice thickness is a key parameter for predictive ice sheet modeling, geological interpretation of the underlying bed rock, and site selection for deep ice sheet and bed rock sampling.  However, the uncertainties typically reported are in terms of crossover statistics, and ice thickness uncertainties are generally not formally integrated into ice sheet models.  Here we examine what crossover statistics reveal and conceal for the actual uncertainty in reported ice thickness, examine the impact of system and geometric parameters on uncertainties, and place these parameters in the context of the observed subglacial roughness.  We provide a predictive model for uncertainties as a function of ice thickness, sensor height, and subglacial roughness parameters, evaluate it from the perspective of ground based, airborne and orbital sounding and make recommendations for parameters that should be reported in ice thickness data products.

How to cite: Young, D., Kempf, S., and Ng, G.: Beyond crossovers: Predicting ice thickness uncertainties in ice penetrating radar data from geometric controls, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5506, 2022.

EGU22-5865 | Presentations | CR2.1

Diffraction imaging of alpine glacier GPR data 

Johanna Klahold, Benjamin Schwarz, Alexander Bauer, and James Irving

Over the past decades, ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has become a fundamental tool in glaciological studies thanks to its tremendous capacity to provide high-resolution images in snow and ice. 3D acquisitions in particular can give detailed information on the internal structure, properties, and dynamics of glaciers. For imaging and highlighting important englacial and subglacial features such as meltwater tunnels and voids, an analysis of the spatial distribution of diffractions in the data holds great potential. However, the diffracted wavefield typically has low amplitude and is often masked by more prominent arrivals. Diffraction separation and imaging procedures have already become topics of significant interest in the field of exploration seismology, and may potentially open new possibilities for the analysis of glacier GPR data.

Here, we explore the potential of recent advances in diffraction imaging for the analysis of alpine glacier GPR data. To this end, we consider a 3D data set acquired on the Haut Glacier d’Arolla (Valais, Switzerland) using a 70-MHz single-antenna real-time-sampling GPR system. The approach we use coherently approximates the dominant reflected wavefield and subtracts it from the data. The remaining diffracted wavefield is then enhanced using local coherent stacking. We find that this methodology is highly effective at isolating diffractions in glacier GPR data and provides clean images of the diffracting structures. Current work includes investigation of the correlation between these structures and the englacial and subglacial hydrological network.

How to cite: Klahold, J., Schwarz, B., Bauer, A., and Irving, J.: Diffraction imaging of alpine glacier GPR data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5865, 2022.

The radar detection of bedrock interface and internal ice layers is a widely used technique for observing interiors and bottoms of ice sheets, which is also an important indicator of inferring the evolution of glaciers and explaining subglacial topographies. The conventional methods, such as the filtering denoise, are limited by the low contrast in ice radar image with noise and interferes and thus the automatic method in tracing and extracting layers' features is trapped. The manual and semiautomatic methods are widely applied but with large time-consuming especially for the large-scale radar image with continuous bedrock and internal layers. To extract and identify the bedrock interface and internal ice layers automatically, we propose EisNet, a fusion system consisting of three sub neural networks. Because of the limitations of conventional manual methods, it is relatively rare that the high-precision extraction of layer features, which can be applied as labels in training. To obtain sufficient radar images with high-quality training labels, we also propose a novel synthetic method to simulate the not only visual texture of the bedrock interface and internal layers but also the artifact noise and interference to match the feature in field data. EisNet is first verified on synthetic data and shows capacity on the extraction of multi types of layer targets. Second, the application on observational radar images reveals EisNet’s generalized performance from synthetic data to the CHINARE data. EisNet is also applied to extract bedrock interfaces from the radar film from the Antarctic. EisNet is now open open-accessing. We hope that EisNet could be applied in more ice radar images from other regions and different forms to promote glacial research.

How to cite: Dong, S., Tang, X., and Fu, L.: Using EisNet to Extract Bedrock and Internal layers from Digital and Analog Radiostratigraphy in Ice Sheets, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6377, 2022.

EGU22-6414 | Presentations | CR2.1

Ice layer detection, distribution, and thickness in the near-surface firn on Devon Ice Cap: a new dual-frequency radar characterization approach 

Kristian Chan, Cyril Grima, Anja Rutishauser, Duncan A. Young, Riley Culberg, and Donald D. Blankenship

Atmospheric warming has led to increased surface melting on glaciers in the Arctic. This meltwater can percolate into firn and refreeze to form ice layers. Depending on their thickness, low-permeability ice layers can act as barriers that inhibit subsequent vertical meltwater infiltration in deeper firn pore space and favor lateral meltwater runoff. Thus, characterizing ice layers in firn is key for understanding the near-surface hydrological conditions that could promote surface meltwater runoff and its contribution to sea level rise.

Airborne ice-penetrating radar (IPR) is a powerful tool for imaging subsurface structure, but only recently have these systems been applied to direct observations of the bulk properties of the near-surface. To evaluate the bulk permeability of the near-surface firn system of Devon Ice Cap (DIC), Canadian Arctic, we use the Radar Statistical Reconnaissance (RSR) technique, originally developed for accumulation studies in West Antarctica. This method utilizes both the coherent and incoherent components of the total surface return, which are predominately sensitive to near-surface permittivity/structure within the system’s vertical range resolution and surface roughness, respectively. Here, we apply RSR to IPR data collected over DIC with the High-Capability Airborne Radar Sounder 2 (HiCARS) system (60 MHz center-frequency, 15 MHz bandwidth), operated by the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics (UTIG). Guided by ground-based ice-penetrating radar data and firn core density measurements, we show that the near-surface heterogeneous firn structure, featuring ice layers, mainly affects the observed coherent component.

We further compare the coherent component of HiCARS with that derived from IPR data collected with the University of Kansas Multichannel Coherent Radar Depth Sounder (MCoRDS) 3 system (195 MHz center-frequency; 30 MHz bandwidth), to evaluate the utility of dual-frequency IPR for characterizing near-surface ice layers. We expect that each radar system is sensitive to a different scale of near-surface bulk properties (i.e., depth and thickness of ice layers of different vertical extents), governed by each radar systems’ center frequency and bandwidth-limited range resolution. We leverage these differences in range resolution to derive ice layer thickness constraints in the DIC firn zone containing meter-thick ice layers, which are consistent with ground-based observations. Our results suggest this dual-frequency approach does indeed show that ice layers are vertically resolvable, spatially extensive, and mostly impermeable to surface meltwater. Thus, we hypothesize that lateral flow over high elevation meter-thick ice layers may contribute to the total surface runoff routed through supraglacial rivers down-glacier in the ablation zone.

How to cite: Chan, K., Grima, C., Rutishauser, A., Young, D. A., Culberg, R., and Blankenship, D. D.: Ice layer detection, distribution, and thickness in the near-surface firn on Devon Ice Cap: a new dual-frequency radar characterization approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6414, 2022.

Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a geophysical method that produces an estimate of subsurface resistivity distribution, which can be used to infer the presence and extent of frozen ground. Repeated ERT surveys indicate how subsurface temperature and ground ice conditions are changing over time, which is particularly important for evaluating the changes and risks associated with climate change. However, there is no existing framework for sharing ERT data and datasets are rarely published, making it difficult to find and use historical data to assess subsurface changes. To facilitate data sharing, we are developing a Canadian database for ERT surveys of permafrost.

A key component of this project is the development of an automated ERT data processing workflow to prepare datasets. Establishing best practices for data processing ensures that ERT results are optimized and standardized, which is essential so that changes in subsurface conditions can be reasonably interpreted. We also present our web-based data visualization tool that allows for targeted searching of surveys and plotting of selected results. By storing ERT data in a standardized and accessible way, our goal is to facilitate interpretations of permafrost change on a range of spatial and temporal scales and guide future research in permafrost science.

How to cite: Herring, T. and Lewkowicz, A.: Creating a database of electrical resistivity tomography surveys of permafrost in Canada and establishing best practices for data processing and sharing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6575, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6575, 2022.

EGU22-7154 | Presentations | CR2.1

In-situ measurements of sediment temperature under shallow water bodies in Arctic environments 

Frederieke Miesner, William Cable, Julia Boike, and Pier Paul Overduin

The thermal regime under lakes, ponds, and shallow near shore zones in permafrost zones in the Arctic is predominantly determined by the temperature of the overlying water body throughout the year.   Where the temperatures of the water are warmer than the air, unfrozen zones within the permafrost, called taliks, can form below the water bodies.

However, the presence of bottom-fast ice can decrease the mean annual bed temperature in shallow water bodies and significantly slow down the thawing or even refreeze the lake or sea bed in winter. Small changes in water level have the potential to drastically alter the sub-bed thermal regime between permafrost-thawing and permafrost-forming. The temperature regime of lake sediments is a determining factor in the microbial activity that makes their taliks hot spots of methane gas emission. Measurements of the sediment temperature below shallow water bodies are scarce, and single temperature-chains in boreholes are not sufficient to map spatial variability.

We present a new device to measure in-situ temperature-depth profiles in saturated soils or sediments, adapting the functionality of classic Bullard-type heat flow probes to the special requirements of the Arctic. The measurement setup consists of 30 equally spaced (5cm) digital temperature sensors housed in a 1.5 m stainless steel lance. The lance is portable and can be pushed into the sediment by hand either from a wading position, a small boat or through a hole in the ice during the winter. Measurements are taken continuously and 15 minutes in the sediment are sufficient to acquire in-situ temperatures within the accuracy of the sensors (0.01K after calibration at 0°C). The spacing of the sensors yield a detailed temperature-depth-profile of the near-surface sediments, where small-scale changes in the bottom water changes dominate the temperature field of the sediment. The short time needed for a single measurement allows for fine-meshed surveys of the sediment in areas of interest, such as the transition zone from bottom-fast to free water.

 

Test campaigns in the Canadian Arctic and on Svalbard have proven  the device to be robust in a range of environments. We present data acquired during winter and summer, covering non-permafrost, thermokarst lake and offshore measurements.

How to cite: Miesner, F., Cable, W., Boike, J., and Overduin, P. P.: In-situ measurements of sediment temperature under shallow water bodies in Arctic environments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7154, 2022.

EGU22-7409 | Presentations | CR2.1

S-wave velocity profile of an Antarctic ice stream firn layer with ambient seismic recording using Distributed Acoustic Sensing 

Wen Zhou, Antony Butcher, J. Michael Kendall, Sofia-Katerina Kufner, and Alex Brisbourne

Measurements of the seismic properties of Antarctic ice streams are critical for constraining glacier dynamics and future sea-level rise contributions. In 2020, passive seismic data were acquired at the Rutford Ice Stream, West Antarctica, with the aim of imaging the near-surface firn layer. A DAS (distributed acoustic sensing) interrogator and 1 km of optic fibre were supplemented by 3-component geophones. Taking advantage of transient seismic energy from a petrol generator and seismicity near the ice stream shear margin (10s of km away from the DAS array), which dominated the ambient seismic noise field,  we retrieve Rayleigh wave signals from 3 to 50 Hz. The extracted dispersion curve for a linear fibre array shows excellent agreement with an active seismic surface wave survey (Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves) but with lower frequency content. We invert the dispersion curves for a 1D S-wave velocity profile through the firn layer, which shows good agreement with the previously acquired seismic refraction survey. Using a triangular-array geometry we repeat the procedure and find no evidence of seismic anisotropy at our study site. Our study presents challenges and solutions for processing noisy but densely sampled DAS data, for noise interferometry and imaging. 

How to cite: Zhou, W., Butcher, A., Kendall, J. M., Kufner, S.-K., and Brisbourne, A.: S-wave velocity profile of an Antarctic ice stream firn layer with ambient seismic recording using Distributed Acoustic Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7409, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7409, 2022.

EGU22-7447 | Presentations | CR2.1

Investigation of the induced polarization effect in transient electromagnetic soundings to characterize rock glaciers 

Lukas Aigner, Nathalie Roser, Clemens Moser, Theresa Maierhofer, Umberto Morra Di Cella, Christian Hauck, and Adrián Flores Orozco

Geophysical characterization of rock glaciers commonly relies on electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and seismic refraction tomography (SRT). Yet, large blocks make the installation of geophones and electrodes time consuming, while bad contacts lead to reduced signal-to-noise ratios in both methods. Additionally, ERT and SRT campaigns require rather heavy equipment and need long profiles to reach large depths of investigation. Transient electromagnetic (TEM) measurements offer diverse advantages, as they do not require a galvanic contact with the ground, and can be conducted with light instruments for simplified field procedures. We propose the application of TEM measurements with a single-loop configuration for the collection of extensive data sets in alpine environments. We hypothesize that TEM measurements provide the same information as SRT and ERT, yet field procedures of the TEM method are much more efficient permitting to cover larger areas in reduced time. In particular, we present investigations conducted on the Gran Sometta rock glacier (above Cervinia, Aosta Valley, Italian Alps). The study area consists of a large active rock glacier complex composed of two main lobes with varying ice content. Our surveys aimed at: (i) estimating the depth to the bedrock below the rock glacier, (ii) identifying the degree of weathering in the underlying bedrock, and (iii) evaluating spatial variations of ice content of the rock glacier. We collected TEM data with a TEM-FAST 48 system using 4 A current and a 50 m by 50 m single loop configuration. The experimental setup fits in a single backpack and our 3-person team covered an area of approximately 75’000 m² in 2.5 days, despite the difficult terrain. We measured 28 soundings distributed over the entire site and repeated two sounding locations with a larger 75 m square loop. Complementary spectral induced polarization (SIP) data were measured using 64 electrodes with a separation of 2.5 m between electrodes along two perpendicular profiles to validate our TEM results. We used separated transmitter and receiver instruments as well as cables to reduce EM coupling effects in our SIP data. TEM data reveal sign reversals, which are caused by the induced polarization effect due to the ice content in the rock glacier. We model the TEM response with the open-source algorithm empymod assuming a layered media. We observe that including a layer with a frequency-dependent polarization results in the signal reversals, while the geometry of such a layer also influences the TEM response. Furthermore, we observe that resistivity variations in the layer below the polarizable one can also be detected by the TEM data. Hence, our results demonstrate the applicability of TEM measurements to determine the geometry of the ice-rich layer in an active rock glacier, possible variations in ice content at the study area as well as the electrical properties of the underlying bedrock.

How to cite: Aigner, L., Roser, N., Moser, C., Maierhofer, T., Morra Di Cella, U., Hauck, C., and Flores Orozco, A.: Investigation of the induced polarization effect in transient electromagnetic soundings to characterize rock glaciers, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7447, 2022.

EGU22-7552 | Presentations | CR2.1

Assessment of ESA CryoSat-2 radar altimetry data using GNSSdata at three sites on the Greenland Ice Sheet 

Karina Hansen, Kristine M. Larson, Michael J. Willis, William Colgan, Veit Helm, and Shfaqat Abbas Khan

Ten-year records of ice surface elevation changes derived from three GNSS stations placed on the interior of the Greenland ice sheet are used to assess the ability of CryoSat-2 radar altimetry to capture surface elevation changes during 2010-2021. We use GNSS interferometric reflectometry (GNSS-IR) to derive time series of continuous daily surface elevations. The footprint of GNSS-IR is about 1000 m2 and the accuracy is ±2cm, making it an excellent tool to validate ice surface height from satellite altimetry. We compare GNSS-IR derived ice surface elevations with CryoSat-2 derived surface elevations and find Cryosat-2 performs best at the GNSS site furthest north (GLS3) with a maximum difference of 12cm. The other GNSS sites have a higher residual range because of poorer data availability and local surface variations. The number of Cryosat-2 data points are roughly doubled from GLS1 and GLS2 to GLS3. GLS3 Is located in a very flat area of the ice sheet only moving 55m during 2011-2020. In contrast GLS1 moved 292m in the same period, clearly indicating a steeper slope to the ice sheet at this location, which we have difficulty correcting for because digital elevation models are associated with high uncertainty on the interior of the ice sheet. The strength of this assessment method lies in the continuous daily time series of surface elevation change derived from GNSS, as they clearly capture extreme short-term changes, which otherwise might have been perceived as errors in the radar altimetry measurements.

How to cite: Hansen, K., Larson, K. M., Willis, M. J., Colgan, W., Helm, V., and Khan, S. A.: Assessment of ESA CryoSat-2 radar altimetry data using GNSSdata at three sites on the Greenland Ice Sheet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7552, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7552, 2022.

EGU22-7725 | Presentations | CR2.1

Illuminating the deeper radio-stratigraphy of an alpine glacier using SAR processing 

Falk Oraschewski, Inka Koch, Mohammadreza Ershadi, Jonathan Hawkins, and Reinhard Drews

The internal stratigraphy of alpine glaciers entails information about its past dynamics and accumulation rates. It further can be used for intercalibrating the age-depth scales of ice cores. The internal ice stratigraphy is often imaged using radar, but similar to polar ice sheets the deeper stratigraphy is often difficult to resolve with classical pulsed radar systems. For polar ice sheets, the introduction of phase coherent radars has illuminated this former echo-free zone (EFZ) and now patterns of folded, buckled and disrupted ice stratigraphy are clearly visible. Unfortunately, the new airborne and ground-based radar systems applied in polar regions are typically too heavy to be deployed in an alpine environment.

Here, we transfer the lightweight autonomous phase-sensitive radio-echo sounder (ApRES) to an alpine glacier targeting its echo-free zone (Colle Gnifetti, Italy/Switzerland). The ApRES is a coherent frequency modulated continuous wave radar with an integration time of 1 s per trace which we deployed in combination with a GNSS used in real time kinematic (RTK) mode. The latter allows repositioning of the antennas with sub-wavelength accuracy (approximately 5 cm) required to exploit the coherent signal. Like this, the radio-stratigraphy of the former EFZ at this site could be imaged using a matched filtering SAR method. The resulting radargrams cover former ice core sites (e.g., Ice Memory and KCC) and can be used to harmonize conflicting age-depth scales. This dataset will be analysed further in conjunction with ice-fabric measurements from ice cores to reveal how the anisotropic ice rheology imprints on the flow field of glaciers.

How to cite: Oraschewski, F., Koch, I., Ershadi, M., Hawkins, J., and Drews, R.: Illuminating the deeper radio-stratigraphy of an alpine glacier using SAR processing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7725, 2022.

EGU22-8245 | Presentations | CR2.1

A passive seismic approach including fiber-optic sensing for permafrost monitoring on Mt. Zugspitze (Germany) 

Fabian Lindner, Krystyna Smolinski, Jonas Igel, Daniel Bowden, Andreas Fichtner, and Joachim Wassermann

As observed elsewhere on a global scale, permafrost at Mt. Zugspitze (German/Austrian Alps) is warming in response to climate change. To monitor permafrost warming and thawing, which affect the rock slope stability and thus the hazard potential, borehole temperature logging and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) have been employed at Mt. Zugspitze for more than a decade. Furthermore, a recent study shows that the ambient seismic noise recordings of a single seismometer at the same site can be utilized to track permafrost changes over the past 15 years. This passive seismic approach is non-invasive, labour- and cost-effective and provides high temporal resolution. Together with recent advances in instrumentation allowing the measurement of seismic vibrations on a meter scale along a fiber-optic cable (known as distributed acoustic sensing), passive seismology provides unprecedented spatio-temporal resolution for monitoring applications.

 

Starting in July 2021, we extended the single-station deployment on Mt. Zugspitze with three small seismic arrays (six stations each, aperture ~25 m) along the permafrost-affected ridge. The stations are partly installed in a tunnel beneath the surface, which intersects a permafrost body, thus allowing in-situ observations of the frozen rock. We equipped the tunnel facilities with a fiber-optic cable, which we will interrogate on a regular basis, about once per quarter year, to resolve seasonal permafrost dynamics. A first 10-day data set of this monitoring element with seismic channel spacing of 2 m along a cable exceeding 1 km in length is already available and shows that artificial avalanche triggering explosions were successfully recorded. We present data and first results dedicated to permafrost monitoring along the fiber-optic cable and between pairs of seismic stations through cross-correlation of ambient seismic noise. In addition, the seismic arrays are designed to derive rotational ground motions, which we expect to be more sensitive to local subsurface/permafrost changes compared to the classical translational motion measurements. The experiment aims to explore the permafrost monitoring capabilities of passive seismology compared to more classical and established methods as ERT.

How to cite: Lindner, F., Smolinski, K., Igel, J., Bowden, D., Fichtner, A., and Wassermann, J.: A passive seismic approach including fiber-optic sensing for permafrost monitoring on Mt. Zugspitze (Germany), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8245, 2022.

EGU22-8555 | Presentations | CR2.1

Using different seismic approaches to detect submarine permafrost and gas hydrates on the continental Beaufort shelf of the Canadian Arctic 

Henrik Grob, Michael Riedel, Mathieu J. Duchesne, Sebastian Krastel, Jefferson Bustamante Restrepo, Gabriel Fabien-Ouellet, Dirk Kläschen, Jonas Preine, Young Keun Jin, and Jong Kuk Hong

In the Canadian Arctic, permafrost and permafrost-associated gas hydrates formed extensively during the last 1 Ma. After the last glaciation, a marine transgression followed and former terrestrially exposed shelf areas became submerged. Subaerial mean annual temperatures of -20°C or even less changed to present submarine bottom water temperatures near -1°C. The relict submarine permafrost and gas hydrates present in the Beaufort Sea still react to this ongoing thermal change which results in their continued degradation. Thawing permafrost and destabilisation of permafrost-associated gas hydrates may release previously trapped greenhouse gases and can lead to even further gas hydrate dissociation. Moreover, thawing permafrost poses a geohazard in form of landslides and ground collapses. Yet, both the extent of the submarine permafrost and the permafrost-associated gas hydrates are still not well known. Here, we present three different approaches using marine 2D multichannel seismic data to improve the current knowledge of the distribution of offshore permafrost and gas hydrates occurrences in the southern Canadian Beaufort Sea. The acoustic properties of permafrost are determined by the content of ice and unfrozen pore fluids. Changing permafrost conditions affect the elasticity of the medium making seismic methods appropriate for permafrost detection. First, we identify direct and indirect seismic reflection indicators from permafrost and gas hydrates by the presence of cross-cutting, polarity-reversed, and upward-bend reflections as well as velocity pull-ups and shallow pronounced high-amplitude reflections. Second, using diving-wave tomography provides insights into the near-surface permafrost structure by imaging the velocity structure in greater detail than achievable by standard velocity analyses.  And third, diffractions separated from the reflected wavefield yield insights into the sub-wavelength architecture of the permafrost realm on the southern Canadian Beaufort Shelf that may add information about weak phase-boundaries and small-scale heterogeneities. All methods are applied to seismic lines crossing the outer continental margin, where a maximum thermal effect of the transgression is expected, and thus a maximum lateral variation in permafrost and permafrost-associated gas hydrate phase boundaries is expected to be present. 

How to cite: Grob, H., Riedel, M., Duchesne, M. J., Krastel, S., Bustamante Restrepo, J., Fabien-Ouellet, G., Kläschen, D., Preine, J., Jin, Y. K., and Hong, J. K.: Using different seismic approaches to detect submarine permafrost and gas hydrates on the continental Beaufort shelf of the Canadian Arctic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8555, 2022.

EGU22-8588 | Presentations | CR2.1

3D Spectral Induced Polarization survey to evaluate a thawing permafrost endangered hut in the Italian Alps 

Clemens Moser, Theresa Maierhofer, Elisabetta Drigo, Umberto Morra Di Cella, Christian Hauck, and Adrian Flores Orozco

Due to generally rising air temperatures in the European Alps in context of climate change, large areas of mountain permafrost are thawing, and subsurface pore ice is melting. Consequently, the cohesion of rock masses decreases which can constitute a threat for infrastructure like mountain huts in alpine areas. One directly affected building is the Guide Val d'Ayas al Lambronecca, a hut on a rock ledge in the Italian Alps at 3400 m above sea level. During the last decade the ground directly underneath the hut sank of about 2 m, probably due to the melting of pore ice in the subsurface below the hut. In this study, we investigate the subsurface properties beneath the hut using a 3D geophysical survey. In particular, we deploy the spectral induced polarization (SIP) method, which has emerged as a promising tool to discriminate between ice-rich and ice-poor regions in the subsurface. Our investigation is built on the hypothesis that ice can be identified in electrical images due to its high electrical resistivity and polarization (i.e., capacitive) properties at frequencies above 10 Hz. In our survey, we conducted 2D SIP measurements in summer 2020 (between 0.5 and 225 Hz) along three profiles near the hut, while real 3D SIP measurements (in the range between 1 and 240 Hz) were conducted in summer 2021. For the 3D measurements, we deployed two parallel lines, one on the southern and one on the northern rock wall of the summit where the hut is located. To improve the data quality, we used coaxial cables for the 2D measurements in 2020, while data collected in 2021 were based on the actual separation of the transmitter and receiver (i.e., instrument and cables) to reduce the contamination of the data due to parasitic electromagnetic fields. Processing of the data was based on the statistical analysis of normal and reciprocal misfits. Inversion of the data was performed in 3D using ResIPy which uses complex calculus to simultaneously resolve for the conductive and capacitive properties. Our imaging results evidence a core of ice-filled pores corresponding to high resistivity values (>10 kΩm) directly underneath the hut, this structure is overlain by lower values (<1 kΩm) in near-surface areas representing the active layer. Images of the polarization effect confirm an anomaly due to high values at frequencies above 10 Hz in the center of the rock ledge. Our study demonstrates that 3D SIP measurements can be used to differentiate between ice-rich and ice-poor areas in high mountain permafrost sites with complex topography. Moreover, 3D SIP approaches enable a detection of electrical anomalies in all three dimensions and not only along one certain direction in the case of 2D profiles. This information can be used to assess the impact of permafrost degradation on infrastructure stability in mountain regions and to support restoration actions.

How to cite: Moser, C., Maierhofer, T., Drigo, E., Morra Di Cella, U., Hauck, C., and Flores Orozco, A.: 3D Spectral Induced Polarization survey to evaluate a thawing permafrost endangered hut in the Italian Alps, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8588, 2022.

EGU22-10159 | Presentations | CR2.1

Year-round high-resolution geoelectrical monitoring to improve the understanding of deglaciated soil evolution in the High Arctic 

Mihai O. Cimpoiasu, Harry Harrison, Philip Meldrum, Paul Wilkinson, Jonathan Chambers, James Bradley, Pacifica Sommers, Steven K. Schmidt, Trevor Irons, Dane Liljestrand, Carlos Oroza, and Oliver Kuras

High Arctic regions are experiencing an accelerated rise in temperatures, about three times more than the global average. As a result, the glacier coverage over these landscapes is reducing, uncovering soils which start their development by sustaining emergent microbial communities. These new systems will have a significant impact on the global carbon budget, thus monitoring and understanding their evolution becomes a necessity.

Geoelectrical methods have emerged as a fast, cost-effective and minimally invasive way of imaging soil moisture dynamics in the shallow subsurface. BGS PRIME technology is designed to facilitate low-power remote geoelectrical tomography by using an array of sensor electrodes. We are using such technology to monitor the year-round variability of soil electrical resistivity in 4D on a glacier forefield in the vicinity of Ny-Alesund, Svalbard. Until now, such assessment of soil properties was confined to the summer period due to harsh Arctic winter conditions making site access very difficult.

Two PRIME systems were deployed during the summer of 2021 on Midtre Lovénbreen glacier forefield, which exhibits a soil chronosequence extending from the youngest soils near the glacier snout up to soils of approximately 120 years old. The two geophysical systems are monitoring electrical resistivity within the top 2m of soil of approximately 5 and 60 years of age respectively, recording soil moisture and freeze-thaw dynamics within the active layer above the permafrost.

We present early results, a timeseries of 3D soil electrical resistivity models, that captured several precipitation events during the summer and the progression of the freezing front when soil temperatures dropped below 0 °C in October 2021. These results reveal differences in the hydrodynamic activity between the 5- and 60-year-old sites determined by soil properties and their location on the glacier forefield. In addition, soil cores were sampled from the vicinity of the PRIME systems. These were subsequently subjected to laboratory tests to describe the changes in electrical resistivity as a function of moisture content and during successive freeze-thaw cycles. Furthermore, we are working towards an integrated analysis and a more comprehensive model of soil evolution at our sites by combining geoelectrical measurements with point measurements of environmental parameters and microbiological activity.

How to cite: Cimpoiasu, M. O., Harrison, H., Meldrum, P., Wilkinson, P., Chambers, J., Bradley, J., Sommers, P., Schmidt, S. K., Irons, T., Liljestrand, D., Oroza, C., and Kuras, O.: Year-round high-resolution geoelectrical monitoring to improve the understanding of deglaciated soil evolution in the High Arctic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10159, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10159, 2022.

EGU22-10195 | Presentations | CR2.1

Investigation of ice with geophysical measurements during the transit of cryobots 

Marc S. Boxberg, Anna Simson, Qian Chen, and Julia Kowalski

Several icy moons of our Solar System like Jupiter’s moon Europa have a global ocean of liquid water below their icy crust. These ocean worlds are possible targets for space missions that aim to assess their potential for habitability or even to search for life. Cryobots (or ice melting probes) are suitable tools to reach the subglacial oceans for in-situ investigations. The necessary ice shell transit provides an excellent opportunity to investigate structure and composition of the ice itself by means of geophysical and other in-situ measurements. This will allow us to better understand the evolution of icy moons and their role in our solar system.

We present current ideas as well as first results from terrestrial analogue studies. Acoustic data obtained during a field test on Langenferner Glacier, Italy was used to conduct a travel time tomography, which yields insight into heterogeneities in the local acoustic wave propagation speed through the ice. The acoustic sensor set-up was originally designed for localization of the melting probe rather than an investigation of the ice structure. However, we can still show that such opportunity data can be used to obtain a wave velocity distribution which can be further interpreted with respect to ice properties like porosity.

While we already investigated the acoustic data, we evaluate the potential of other measurements. For example, Radar measurements in combination with the acoustics can be used to identify the ice-water boundary and, in addition, cracks and inclusions in the ice. Conductivity measurements provide information on the salinity. At ice-water interface regions, the salinity is in thermochemical equilibrium with the temperature and porosity of the ice. We present our concept for on-board electrical conductivity measurements and analyze its potential, for example, to constrain ice properties and to predict ice-water interfaces based on existing terrestrial field data and process models. Furthermore, some of the cryobot’s housekeeping data might be of interest for investigating the ambiance, too. For example, the temperature and the density of the ice affect the melting velocity of the cryobot, which constitutes an inverse problem to get further information on the ice.

How to cite: Boxberg, M. S., Simson, A., Chen, Q., and Kowalski, J.: Investigation of ice with geophysical measurements during the transit of cryobots, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10195, 2022.

EGU22-10565 | Presentations | CR2.1

Initiation of an international database of geoelectrical surveys on permafrost to promote data sharing, survey repetition and standardized data reprocessing 

Coline Mollaret, Christin Hilbich, Teddi Herring, Mohammad Farzamian, Johannes Buckel, Baptiste Dafflon, Daniel Draebing, Hannelore Fossaert, Rebecca Gugerli, Christian Hauck, Julius Kunz, Antoni Lewkowicz, Jonas K. Limbrock, Theresa Maierhofer, Florence Magnin, Cécile Pellet, Sebastian Pfaehler, Riccardo Scandroglio, and Sebastian Uhlemann and the IDGSP IPA Action Group

Geoelectrical methods are widely used for permafrost investigations by research groups, government agencies and industry. Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) surveys are typically performed only once to detect the presence or absence of permafrost. Exchange of data and expertise among users is limited and usually occurs bilaterally. Neither complete information about the existence of geophysical surveys on permafrost nor the data itself is available on a global scale. Given the potential gain for identifying permafrost evidence and their spatio-temporal changes, there is a strong need for coordinated efforts regarding data, metadata, guidelines, and expertise exchange. Repetition of ERT surveys is rare, even though it could provide a quantitative spatio-temporal measure of permafrost evolution, helping to quantify the effects of climate change at local (where the ERT survey takes place) and global scales (due to the inventory).

Our International Permafrost Association (IPA) action group (2021-2023) has the main objective of bringing together the international community interested in geoelectrical measurements on permafrost and laying the foundations for an operational International Database of Geoelectrical Surveys on Permafrost (IDGSP). Our contribution presents a new international database of electrical resistivity datasets on permafrost. The core members of our action group represent more than 10 research groups, who have already contributed their own metadata (currently > 200 profiles covering 15 countries). These metadata will be fully publicly accessible in the near future whereas access to the resistivity data may be either public or restricted. Thanks to this open-access policy, we aim at increasing the level of transparency, encouraging further data providers and fostering survey repetitions by new users.

The database is set up on a virtual machine hosted by the University of Fribourg. The advanced open-source relational database system PostgreSQL is used to program the database. Homogenization and standardization of a large number of data and metadata are among the greatest challenges, yet are essential to a structured relational database. In this contribution, we present the structure of the database, statistics of the metadata uploaded, as well as first results of repetitions from legacy geoelectrical measurements on permafrost. Guidelines and strategies are developed to handle repetition challenges such as changing survey configuration, changing geometry or inaccurate/missing metadata. First steps toward transparent and reproducible automated filtering and inversion of a great number of datasets will also be presented. By archiving geoelectrical data on permafrost, the ambition of this project is the reanalysis of the full database and its climatic interpretation.

How to cite: Mollaret, C., Hilbich, C., Herring, T., Farzamian, M., Buckel, J., Dafflon, B., Draebing, D., Fossaert, H., Gugerli, R., Hauck, C., Kunz, J., Lewkowicz, A., Limbrock, J. K., Maierhofer, T., Magnin, F., Pellet, C., Pfaehler, S., Scandroglio, R., and Uhlemann, S. and the IDGSP IPA Action Group: Initiation of an international database of geoelectrical surveys on permafrost to promote data sharing, survey repetition and standardized data reprocessing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10565, 2022.

EGU22-10835 | Presentations | CR2.1

Combined measurement of snow depth and sea ice thickness by helicopter EM bird in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica 

Wolfgang Rack, Adrian Tan, Christian Haas, Usama Farooq, Aston Taylor, Adriel Kind, Kelvin Barnsdale, and Greg Leonard

Snow on sea ice is a controlling factor for ocean-atmosphere heat flux and thus ice thickness growth, and surface albedo. Active and passive microwave remote sensing is the most promising way to estimate snow depths over large sea ice areas although improved validation is understood as a missing information to support further progress. However, severe limitations in the representative measurement of snow depth over sea ice persist, which exacerbates sea ice mass balance assessments as well as the indirect estimation of consolidated ice thickness from remotely sensed freeboard.

We have designed and flown a snow radar in combination with an electromagnetic induction device for sea ice thickness. The goal was the simultaneous measurement of both the consolidated sea ice thickness and the snow depth on top as a tool to derive snow and ice statistics for satellite validation. The snow radar was integrated into an EM-bird and flown about 15 m above the surface by suspending the instrument from a helicopter. The combination of the applied technologies hasn’t been deployed in this configuration before. The helicopter flight speed was around 70 knots, resulting in a snow measurement about every four meters. The EM instrument can detect ice thickness at 0.1m accuracy, whereas the snow radar is designed to measure snow depth at 0.05m accuracy.

Our field area was the land-fast sea ice and adjacent ice shelf in McMurdo Sound (Antarctica) in November 2021. During this time we found a relatively shallow but variable snow cover (up to about 0.3m) above sea ice of about 2m thickness. Deeper snow was only measured at the transition from the sea ice to the ice shelf, and on the ice shelf itself, where the maximum radar penetration in snow in ideal conditions is estimated to be around 2-3 meters.

We present first results of snow cover statistics in comparison to ground validation and observed snow characteristics, and we compare these results to airphotos and optical satellite imagery. We show that the measurement set-up meets the requirements for level ice and rough fast ice with patchy but dry snow cover. The system still needs to be tested over pack ice with potentially more complex snow morphology.

How to cite: Rack, W., Tan, A., Haas, C., Farooq, U., Taylor, A., Kind, A., Barnsdale, K., and Leonard, G.: Combined measurement of snow depth and sea ice thickness by helicopter EM bird in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10835, 2022.

Ground surface movements and snow cover during freeze/thaw cycles of permafrost are important variables for studying climate change. GPS-IR has emerged as an effective technique to estimate the relative elevation changes of ground surface such as the thaw subsidence of frozen ground and snow depth variations. In permafrost areas, the freezing process of the ground is always accompanied by the snow accumulations, making it hard for GPS-IR to separate these two distinct signals from the estimated elevation changes. In this study, using the Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) collected by a permafrost GPS site SG27 (Northern Alaska) in 2018, we proposed a physical model-based method to simultaneously estimate the daily snow depths and freezing-ground uplifts with GPS-IR. First, we applied GPS-IR to the SNR data to obtain the daily elevation changes of the ground surface from September 1 in 2018 to August 31 in 2019. The elevation change measurements indicate the onset of snow season on October 18 in 2018 and the end of snow-cover on June 15 in 2019. Second, we used the thermal index Accumulated Degree Days of Freezing (ADDF) calculated from the temperature records to determine the onset of the permafrost freezing season as of September 17 in 2018. Third, we fitted the Stefan function to the estimated elevation changes (i.e. freezing-ground uplifts) from September 17 to October 18 in 2018. The Stefan model agrees with the freezing uplifts with an R2 of 0.65. Forth, we extended the fitted model to the time when the ground was completely frozen (November 1) to estimate daily freezing-ground uplifts up to 1.75 cm under the snowpack. Last, we extracted the snow depths from the estimated elevation changes by subtracting the corresponding freezing-ground uplifts. Our study is the first attempt to simultaneously estimate the daily freezing-ground uplifts and snow depths over the permafrost area with GPS-IR, providing the measurements to understand the coupling effects of the permafrost and snow cover.

How to cite: Hu, Y. and Wang, J.: Simultaneous estimation of snow depth and freezing-ground uplift by GPS Interferometric Reflectometry over a permafrost area, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10858, 2022.

EGU22-12006 | Presentations | CR2.1

Characterising ice sheet properties using Rayleigh wave ellipticity 

Glenn Jones, Ana Ferreira, Bernd Kulessa, Martin Schimmel, Andrea Berbellini, and Andrea Morelli

The physical properties of the ice column are fundamental to the deformation and flow of glaciers and ice sheets. With a warming climate, surface meltwater is ever increasingly being routed and distributed throughout the ice column changing the mechanical and hence thermal properties of the ice and leading to accelerated ice flow and ice mass loss. Since the early 1990s, ice mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has contributed ~10% of the mean global sea level rise. Seismic waves have routinely been used to study the physical characteristics of glaciers and ice sheets due to their sensitivity to both mechanical and thermal properties of ice. Traditionally, reflection seismic surveys have been chosen as the primary seismic approach but this survey method can suffer from difficult logistics in polar regions. Recent advancements in ambient noise methods and the permanent installation of a seismic network in Greenland now permit the long term study of the ice properties of the GrIS.

Rayleigh wave ellipticity measurements (the horizontal-to-vertical ratio of Rayleigh wave particle motions) are particularly sensitive to the subsurface structure beneath a seismic station. Using the polarisation properties of seismic noise, we extract Rayleigh wave ellipticity measurements from the Earth’s ambient noise for on-ice stations deployed in Greenland from 2012-- 2018. For wave periods sensitive to the ice sheet (T ≤ 3.5 s), we observe significant deviation between ellipticity measurements extracted from noise and synthetic fundamental mode calculations using a single ice column. Using a forward modelling approach we show: (1) a slow seismic shear-wave velocity at the near surface, (2) seismic attenuation, quantified as the quality factor Q, is sensitive to the temperature, water content and density of the ice and (3) the excitation of Rayleigh wave overtones plays a leading role in perturbing the ellipticity. Our results highlight how the inclusion of Q and overtone information can fill important gaps in our knowledge of ice sheet temperature, density and water content, which are important for predictions of the future evolution of the GrIS.

How to cite: Jones, G., Ferreira, A., Kulessa, B., Schimmel, M., Berbellini, A., and Morelli, A.: Characterising ice sheet properties using Rayleigh wave ellipticity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12006, 2022.

EGU22-12082 | Presentations | CR2.1

Snow measurement campaign for snowpack model and satellite retrieval validation in Italian Central Apennines within SMIVIA project 

Edoardo Raparelli, Paolo Tuccella, Annalina Lombardi, Gianluca Palermo, Nancy Alvan Romero, Mario Papa, Errico Picciotti, Saverio Di Fabio, Elena Pettinelli, Elisabetta Mattei, Sebastian Lauro, Barbara Cosciotti, Chiara Petroselli, David Cappelletti, Massimo Pecci, and Frank SIlvio Marzano

The Apennine mountain range is the backbone of the Italian peninsula, crossing it from North-West to South-East for approximately 1200 km. The main peaks are found in Central Apennines, especially in the Gran Sasso d’Italia massif, which hosts the highest Apennines peak, named Corno Grande, with its 2912 m a.s.l. During the winter season, Central Apennines are typically covered with snow, with thickness that can vary between a few centimeters to several meters. Despite the historical presence of snow in these territories, the Apennine snowpack is poorly studied and weather data coming from automatic measurement stations and manual snow measurements hardly coexist. Thus, within the SMIVIA (Snow-mantle Modeling, Inversion and Validation using multi-frequency multi-mission InSAR in Central Apennines) project, we identified the measurement sites of Pietrattina, at 1459 m a.s.l, and Campo Felice, at 1545 m a.s.l., both located in Central Apennines. There we collected automatic measurements using ad hoc installed automatic weather-snow stations (AWSS) and where we performed systematic manual measurements of the snowpack properties, from November 2020 till April 2021. The AWSS measures every 5 minutes air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, incoming short-wave radiation, reflected short-wave radiation, soil surface temperature, snow surface temperature and snow height. The manual part of the campaign included the digging of 10 and 8 snow pits at Pietrattina and Campo Felice sites, respectively, to measure vertical profiles of snow density, temperature, grain shape, grain size and fractional content of light absorbing impurities. Manual snow measurements provide important information on the state of the snowpack, and give the opportunity to reconstruct the history of the snowpack. Their proximity to automatic weather stations let us evaluate the impact of the very local atmospheric conditions on the snowpack evolution. These measurements were performed within the SMIVIA project to: i) evaluate the ability of the snow cover model SNOWPACK to reproduce the observed snow cover properties; ii) verify the possibility to infer snow height and snow water equivalent from the data retrieved with Earth observation satellites; iii) investigate whether the use of a combination of snow numerical models and remote sensing data may provide better results compared to using each of the aforementioned approach, separately. Nevertheless, the data collected during the SMIVIA campaign at the measurement sites of Pietrattina and Campo Felice during season 2020-2021 can also provide precious information for other fields of study, like hydrology, biology and chemistry.

How to cite: Raparelli, E., Tuccella, P., Lombardi, A., Palermo, G., Alvan Romero, N., Papa, M., Picciotti, E., Di Fabio, S., Pettinelli, E., Mattei, E., Lauro, S., Cosciotti, B., Petroselli, C., Cappelletti, D., Pecci, M., and Marzano, F. S.: Snow measurement campaign for snowpack model and satellite retrieval validation in Italian Central Apennines within SMIVIA project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12082, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12082, 2022.

EGU22-12233 | Presentations | CR2.1 | Highlight

Monitoring lake ice with seismic and acoustic sensors 

Cedric Schmelzbach, Daniel May, Christoph Wetter, Simon Stähler, and John Clinton

Seismic monitoring of the thickness and elastic parameters of floating ice on lakes and the sea is of interest in understanding the climate change impact on Alpine and Arctic environments, assessing ice safety for recreational and engineering purposes, studying ice shelves as well as exploring possibilities for the future exploration of the icy crusts of ocean worlds in our solar system. Seismic data can provide an alternative to remote-sensing and ground-based radar measurements for estimation of ice thickness in cases where radar techniques fail. Because of the difficult access to Alpine and Arctic environments as well as seismic sensor coupling issues in ice environments, it is of interest to optimize the use of seismic instruments in terms of sensor type, sensor numbers and layouts.

With the motivation to monitor over time the seismic activity of the lake ice and the ice properties, we conducted a series of seismic experiments on frozen lake St. Moritz in the Swiss Alps during two consecutive winters. Arrangements of sensors ranging in numbers from 96 geophones in mini-arrays to installations of 8, 2 and 1 conventional seismic sensors were used to measure the seismic wavefield generated by ice quakes (cryoseisms), artificial sources like hammer strokes, and ambient vibrations. These data provide an impressive and rich insights into the growth of the ice and variations of seismic activity with time. Even recordings with only a single station enable the determination of ice parameters and location of ice seismicity. Furthermore, we are exploring the value of recording air-coupled waves with microphones as alternative contact-free measurements related to seismic wave propagation in the ice, possibly even with sensors placed on the lake shore.

How to cite: Schmelzbach, C., May, D., Wetter, C., Stähler, S., and Clinton, J.: Monitoring lake ice with seismic and acoustic sensors, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12233, 2022.

EGU22-12490 | Presentations | CR2.1

Exploring the potential of cosmic muon scattering to measure the snow water equivalent 

Aitor Orio, Esteban Alonso, Pablo Martínez, Carlos Díez, and Pablo Gómez

The seasonal snowpack influences the hydrology, ecology and economy of the areas where it is present. However, the real time monitoring of the seasonal snowpack is a still well known scientific challenge. In this study, we have explored the potential of muon scattering radiography (MSR) to infer the snow water equivalent (SWE) of the snowpack. We have used the energy and mass balance model Snowpack to realistically simulate the time evolution and microstructure of the snowpack. The ERA5-Land reanalysis was used as forcing of Snowpack, in a location close to the Monte Perdido massif (Central, Pyrenees) at an elevation of 2041m above sea level. The simulations cover the hydrologic year 2015/2016, approximately reaching up to 700mm of peak SWE. Then, we have coupled the Snowpack numerical simulations with the Geant4 model to simulate the propagation of the muons through the snow layers and to collect the deviation of the muon trajectories. We have measured these deviations with a virtual muon detector based in multiwire proportional chambers, replicating a real detection system designed by us. The obtained distributions of muon deviations have exhibited a strong correlation with the simulated SWE, showing a coefficient of determination of 0.99. This model presents a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 23.9mm in the SWE estimation. In order to validate the simulation analysis results, we have replicated the numerical experiments under controlled conditions, measuring three artificial snow samples ranging from 0 to 200 mm of SWE in our laboratory. We have measured the samples with an experimental setup composed of the real muon detector whose hardware was virtually replicated for the numerical experiments. Then, we have applied the model derived from the numerical simulations to the muon deviations measured in our laboratory. We have calibrated the real measurements and we have obtained a RMSE of 38.4mm in the SWE estimation. These results show that MSR is a promising non-destructive technique that can be used for the deployment of accurate SWE monitoring networks and can eventually provide information from the internal layered structure of the snowpack.

How to cite: Orio, A., Alonso, E., Martínez, P., Díez, C., and Gómez, P.: Exploring the potential of cosmic muon scattering to measure the snow water equivalent, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12490, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12490, 2022.

EGU22-1232 | Presentations | GD7.1

Preliminary airborne geophysical surveys over the Bou Azzer-El Graara inlier (Central Anti-Atlas, Morocco): implications for geodynamic model of the Anti-Atlas Pan-African belt 

Saïd Ilmen, Fouzia Anzar, Abderrahmane Soulaimani, Mohamed Jaffal, Amine Bajddi, Lhou Maacha, and Bouchra Baidada

The Anti-Atlas orogenic belt, located at the northwestern edge of West African Craton, hosts several Proterozoic antiformal inliers (Boutonnières) which crops out under a thick Paleozoic Cover. In its central part, along the Anti-Atlas Major Fault, the Siroua and Bou Azzer-El Graara inliers exhibit Neoproterozoic ophiolitic suture which subduction settings is still under debate. In the last two decades, huge scientific publications were done in this area, mainly focused on the structural, petrological and geochronological issues. Three broad tectonothermal events were recognized in the Pan-African cycle. The Tonian–Cryogenian period ends with the obduction of supra-subduction ophiolite and oceanic arc material at ca. 640 Ma. The Early Ediacaran period was marked by the development and subsequent closure of a wide marginal basin next to a likely Andean-type arc (Saghro Group). The Late Ediacaran period is recorded by subaerial molasse deposits associated with post-collisional high-K calc-alkaline to shoshonitic magmatism (Ouarzazate Group).This project aims to use the magnetic and electromagnetic data of the Bou Azzer-El Graara inlier, and to integrate their interpretations in the geodynamic model of the Anti-Atlas Pan-African belt. The preliminary interpretations of the available aeromagnetic data show high-level magnetic signature at the western part of the Bou Azzer inlier, while it is missing in the east of the CAMP Foum Zguid dyke. From the Bou Ofroukh at the western tip of the inlier to the Ait Abdellah village, the strength of the magnetic signal is related to the wide exposure of the ultramafic rocks along the Anti-Atlas Major Fault. A weakness of the magnetic signal is observed in the area situated between Bou Azzer and Aghbar mines. This weakness was interpreted as being due to the deeply buried serpentinites under the Ediacaran volcano-sedimentary sequence. However, filed maps and magnetic signature indicate the absence of magnetic signal and the ultramafic rocks at the eastern domain of the Bou Azzer-El Graara inlier from the Foum Zguid dyke eastward. Several pending questions should be emphasized on the structural framework and continuity of the Anti-Atlas Major Fault and the role played by this inherited NE-SW Fracture infilled by Lower Liassic dolerite during the Pangea breakup.

How to cite: Ilmen, S., Anzar, F., Soulaimani, A., Jaffal, M., Bajddi, A., Maacha, L., and Baidada, B.: Preliminary airborne geophysical surveys over the Bou Azzer-El Graara inlier (Central Anti-Atlas, Morocco): implications for geodynamic model of the Anti-Atlas Pan-African belt, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1232, 2022.

There are a large number of different collision zones on Earth, formed in different geodynamic settings as a result of the collision of continental plates of different shapes and sizes. Researchers often use one or a combination of methods to study one region. In this study, we propose to compare the models of P and S anomalies of several regions. In this study, vertical sections were built under the collision zones of the Caucasus, Eastern Anatolia, NW Himalayas and Tien Shan using the method of local seismic tomography. 3D models of crustal inhomogeneities down to ~ 60-150 km were constructed using the LOTOS algorithm [Koulakov, 2009].

The main characteristic feature of all crustal models of collisional zones is a clear differentiation of the velocity anomalies of the orogen, formed due to shortening, and the continental plates, participating in the collision. Thus, the Arabian, East European, Indian, Tarim plates are associated with high velocity anomalies, and mountain structures, for example, the Greater and Lesser Caucasus, the Himalayas, are characterized by low velocities.

Volcanism is another geological feature that shows up well in seismic tomographic models. Young volcanism (up to ~ 2.5Ma) characterized by low-velocity anomalies in the models, while the older one characterized by high-velocity anomalies. Thus, the volcanic area of Kazbegi province including a group of Quaternary volcanoes (455-30 Ka) in Great Caucasus match to the locations of low-velocities in the P- and S-seismic models. But the Eastern Anatolia younger magmatism (6–4 Ma) occurred in the south around Lake Van, stands out as high velocity anomalies.

It is known that there is the lithospheric window under Tien Shan and Anatolia which is filled with overheated asthenospheric material that reaches the bottom of the crust, thereby weakening and heating the lower crust. It is most likely that the upper crustal high-velocity anomaly corresponds to the strong upper crust which is compacted by solidified material from Neogene-Quaternary volcanism, while the low-velocity anomaly is associated with the weak heated lower crust.

Thus, comparison of seismic tomography models of different collision zones can be the key to better understanding the processes in the crust and lithosphere.

The reported study was funded by Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project number 19-35-60002.

How to cite: Medved, I.: Common features of lithosphere structures in various collision zones of Eurasia based on seismic tomography studies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1399, 2022.

Εpithermal and porphyry-type mineralization is genetically associated with acidic dyke rocks in a part of the supra-detachment Western Thrace Basin. 40Ar/39Ar ages on biotite of an andesitic lava dome and on K-feldspar of quartz-feldspar porphyritic dykes were determined and thus, new temporal constraints on the age of volcanism and mineralization were obtained.           

Biotite of an andesitic lava dome yields a 40Ar/39Ar plateau age of 33.05 ± 0.07 Ma (P=0.12). The dated andesite is considered as representative of the andesitic-dacitic rocks of large volcanic and subvolcanic bodies in the Western Thrace basin (Mavropetra Formation, Kirki area). Andesitic rocks indicate affinities of calc-alkaline to high-K calc-alkaline series magmatism. They are coeval to the high-K calc-alkaline magmatic suite of Leptokarya – Kirki, which forms an ENE-WSW 30 km long magmatic dome, developed between the Rhodope metamorphics extending northwards and the overlying detached Melia non-metamorphic formations and Middle-Upper Eocene molassic clastics, extending southwards.

Smaller bodies of acidic dyke rocks (rhyolite and quartz-feldspar porphyry), crosscut the overall dome structure with the andesitic-dacitic volcanics, the Middle-Upper Eocene clastic sediments, the mafic rocks of the Melia unit, the metamorphics of the Kechros Unit of Rhodope and the Leptokarya - Kirki granitoids. They appear with planar subvertical boundaries following a general NNW-SSE trend, perpendicular to the main ENE-WSW dome structure. They are concentrated along a major fault zone  (Ag. Filippos fault), with high- to intermediate sulfidation epithermal polymetallic sulfide mineralization, as well as in a roughly 8 km long and 1 km wide fracture zone to the east and northeast of Aisymi village with porphyry-type mineralization. Structural observations document the mega-tension gashes nature of the dykes with pronounced sinistral strike-slip kinematic indicators of the Kirki mineralized tectonic zone. K-feldspars from quartz-feldspar porphyritic dykes at Kirki yield a 40Ar/39Ar plateau age of a 31.89 ± 0.12 Ma (P=0.08).  The acidic dyke rocks contain calc-alkaline to high-K calc-alkaline differentiation trends. They exhibit marked enrichment of LREE relative to the HREE, flat HREE pattern, negative Eu anomaly and Eu/Eu* values ranging between 0.32 and 0.82.

In conclusion, the ENE-SSW Leptokarya - Kirki granitic dome was developed contemporaneously with the andesitic-dacitic volcanics at the contact between the Rhodope metamorphics and the detached Melia formations and Middle-Upper Eocene clastics at about 33 Ma, followed by the NNW-SSE transverse faults and acidic dykes with epithermal and porphyry-type mineralization at about 32 Ma.

 

How to cite: Skarpelis, N., Jourdan, F., and Papanikolaou, D.: New time constraints from 40Ar/39Ar geochronology on andesitic-dacitic lavas and acidic dyke rocks: An attempt to date the associated mineralization in the Western Thrace supra-detachment basin (Kirki, NE Greece), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2159, 2022.

This study focusses on the vein-hosted copper sulphide deposits in the Upper Palaeozoic Munster and South Munster Basins of southwest Ireland. Detailed mapping of the Allihies mine area (Beara Peninsula), have led to a new interpretation of the timing and development of mineralised quartz veins. Macro- and microstructural investigations reveal that the copper sulphide-bearing, mainly E-W striking quartz veins are directly related to early extensional, basinal normal faults. Molybdenite Re-Os dating of the main-stage Cu lode yield ages from 367.3 ± 5.5 to 366.4 ± 1.9 Ma. Bi-phase (LV) aqueous fluid inclusions associated with the mineralised quartz veins range from moderate salinity with high homogenisation temperatures (>3.2 wt% NaClequiv, Th < 314°C) to high salinities with very low homogenisation temperatures (<28.5 wt% NaClequiv, Th >74°C) The extensional faults and associated quartz veins experienced subsequent late Carboniferous Variscan deformation, including cleavage development, sinistral SW-NE strike slip faulting, cataclastic deformation and recrystallization of vein fills. Later fluids with low to moderate salinities and Th values of about 200°C were trapped in syn-Variscan quartz-chlorite saddle reefs and en echelon tension gash arrays in semi brittle shear zones. The new timing of Cu mineralisation in SW Ireland has major implications for its relationship to the base metal deposits of the Irish Midlands.

How to cite: Meere, P., Lang, J., and Unitt, R.: The Upper Palaeozoic Vein Hosted Copper Deposits of the Allihies Mining Area, Southwest Ireland – A New Structural and Chronological Evaluation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2811, 2022.

EGU22-3139 | Presentations | GD7.1

Crustal Structure across Central Scandinavia along the Silver-Road refraction profile 

Metin Kahraman, Hans Thybo, Irina Artemieva, Alexey Shulgin, Peter Hedin, and Rolf Mjelde

The Baltic Shield is located in the northern part of Europe. It formed by amalgamation of a series of terranes and microcontinents during the Archean to the Paleoproterozoic, followed by significant modification in Neoproterozoic to Paleozoic time by the Sveconorwegian (Grenvillian) and the Caledonian orogenies. The Baltic Shield includes an up to 2500 m high northeast-southwest oriented mountain range, the Scandes, which mainly coincides with the Caledonian and Sveconorwegian deformed parts along the western North Atlantic coast, despite being located far from any active plate boundary.

We present a crustal scale seismic model along the WNW to ESE directed Silver Road profile in northern Scandinavia between 8oE and 20oE. This profile extends south of Lofoten for ~300km across the Norwegian shelf in the Atlantic Ocean and for ~300km across the onshore Caledonides and Baltic Shield proper. The seismic data were acquired with 5 onshore explosive sources and offshore air gun shots from the vessel Hakon Mosby along the whole offshore profile. Data was acquired by 270 onshore stations at nominally 1.5 km distance and 16 ocean bottom seismometers on the shelf, slope and into the oceanic environment. The results of this experiment will provide information on the origin of the anomalous onshore topography and offshore bathymetry at the edge of the North Atlantic Ocean.

We present results from ray tracing modeling and tomographic inversion of the seismic velocity structure along the profile. The crustal structure is uniform with a thickness of 45 km along the whole onshore profile including both the Caledonides and the shield part. The crust thins abruptly to ~25 km thickness towards the shelf around the coastline. Pn velocity is only ~7.6-7.8 km/s below the high topography areas with Caledonian nappes, and extending into the offshore part, whereas it is 8.4 km/s below the shield proper. By gravity modelling we find that the low Pn zone has a low density of 3.20 g/cm3, which we interpret as partially eclogitizised lower crust. The Svecofennian unit has a very high density of 3.48 g/cm3 in the shield with low topography. Isostasy to 60 km depth, as suggested by Receiver Functions, indicates a ~2 km topography which is ~1 km higher than observed. However, recent results from high-resolution seismic tomography shows a velocity change between the two onshore zones down to 120 km depth. Including this observations into the calculations allows us to explain the observed topography by isostasy in the crust and lithospheric mantle.

How to cite: Kahraman, M., Thybo, H., Artemieva, I., Shulgin, A., Hedin, P., and Mjelde, R.: Crustal Structure across Central Scandinavia along the Silver-Road refraction profile, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3139, 2022.

EGU22-5722 | Presentations | GD7.1

Antarctica ice sheet basal melting enhanced by high mantle heat 

Irina M. Artemieva

Antarctica is losing ice mass by basal melting associated with processes in deep Earth and reflected in geothermal heat flux. The latter is poorly known and existing models based on disputed assumptions are controversial. Here I demonstrate that the rate of Antarctica ice basal melting is significantly underestimated: the area with high heat flux is double in size and the amplitude of the high heat flux anomalies is 20-30% higher than in previous results. Extremely high heat flux (>100 mW/m2) in almost all of West Antarctica, continuing to the South Pole region, and beneath the Lake Vostok region in East Antarctica requires a thin (<70 km) lithosphere and shallow mantle melting, caused by recent geodynamic activity. This high heat flux may promote sliding lubrication and result in dramatic reduction of ice mass. The results form basis for re-evaluation of the Antarctica ice-sheet dynamics models with consequences for global environmental changes. [Artemieva, I.M., 2022, Earth-Science Reviews]

How to cite: Artemieva, I. M.: Antarctica ice sheet basal melting enhanced by high mantle heat, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5722, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5722, 2022.

EGU22-5771 | Presentations | GD7.1

Lithospheric thermo-chemical heterogeneity and density structure of the Siberian craton 

Alexey Shulgin and Irina Artemieva

We present a new model for the density structure of the lithospheric upper mantle beneath the Siberian craton, based on a 3D tesseroid gravity modeling. Our model is based on a detailed crustal structural database SibCrust (Cherepanova et al., 2013) constrained by regional seismic data. The residual lithospheric mantle gravity anomalies are derived by removing the 3D gravitational effect of the crust. We next convert these anomalies to lithosphere mantle in situ densities. To evaluate chemical heterogeneities of the lithospheric mantle, thermal effects are removed based on the global continental thermal model TC1 (Artemieva, 2006). The resulting density model at SPT conditions shows a highly heterogeneous structure of the cratonic lithospheric mantle. Density heterogeneities reflect a complex geodynamic evolution of the craton, which still preserves parts of the pristine cratonic lithosphere in areas where the lithosphere has not been modified by metasomatism associated with the Siberian LIP, several pulses of kimberlite-type magmatism, and rifting at the peripheral parts.

How to cite: Shulgin, A. and Artemieva, I.: Lithospheric thermo-chemical heterogeneity and density structure of the Siberian craton, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5771, 2022.

EGU22-6210 | Presentations | GD7.1

Crustal structure in the central Tethys realm 

Vahid Teknik, Hans Thybo, Irina Artemieva, and Abdolreza Ghods

The central Tethys realm including Anatolia, Caucasus and Iran is one of the most
complex geodynamic settings within the Alpine-Himalayan belt. To investigate the
tectonics of this region, we estimate the depth to magnetic basement (DMB) as a
proxy for the shape of sedimentary basins, and average crustal magnetic
susceptibility (ACMS) by applying the fractal spectral method to aeromagnetic data.
Magnetic data is sensitive to the presence of iron-rich minerals in oceanic fragments
and mafic intrusions hidden beneath sedimentary sequences or overprinted by
younger tectono-magmatic events. Furthermore, a seismically constrained 2D
density-susceptibility model along Zagros is developed to study the depth extent of
the tectonic structure.
Comparison of DMB and ACMS demonstrates that the structural complexity
increases from the Iranian plateau into Anatolia.
Strong ACMS show lineaments coincides with known occurrences of Magmatic-
Ophiolite Arcs (MOA) and weak ACMS zones coincide with known sedimentary
basins in the study region, including Zagros. Based on strong ACMS anomalies, we
identify hitherto unknown MOAs below the sedimentary cover in eastern Iran and in
the SE part of Urima-Dokhtar Magmatic Arc (UDMA). Our results allow for
estimation of the dip of the related paleo-subduction zones. Known magmatic arcs
(Pontides and Urima-Dokhtar) have high-intensity heterogeneous ACMS. We
identify a 450 km-long buried (DMB &gt;6 km) magmatic arc or trapped oceanic crust
along the western margin of the Kirşehır massif in Anatolia from a strong ACMS
anomaly. We identify large, partially buried magmatic bodies in the Caucasus LIP at
the Transcaucasus and Lesser Caucasus and in NW Iran. Strong ACMS anomalies
coincides with tectonic boundaries and major faults within the Iranian plateau while
the ACMA signal is generally weak in Anatolia. The Cyprus subduction zone has a

strong magnetic signature which extends ca. 500 km into the Arabian plate to the
south of the Bitlis suture.
We derive a 2D crustal-scale density-susceptibility model of the NW Iranian plateau
along a 500 km long seismic profile across major tectonic provinces of Iran from the
Arabian plate to the South Caspian Basin (SCB). A seismic P-wave receiver function
section is used to constrain major crustal boundaries in the density model. We
demonstrate that the Main Zagros Reverse Fault (MZRF), between the Arabian and
the overriding Central Iran crust, dips at ~13° angle to the NE and extends to a depth
of ~40 km. The trace of MZRF suggests ~150 km underthrusting of the Arabian plate
beneath Central Iran. We identify a new crustal-scale suture beneath the Tarom
valley separating the South Caspian Basin crust from Central Iran. High density lower
crust beneath Alborz and Zagros may be related to partial eclogitization of crustal
roots at depths deeper than ~40 km.

How to cite: Teknik, V., Thybo, H., Artemieva, I., and Ghods, A.: Crustal structure in the central Tethys realm, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6210, 2022.

EGU22-6563 | Presentations | GD7.1

New global constraints on transition-zone topography from normal-mode tomography 

Rûna van Tent and Arwen Deuss

Lateral variations in the depths of the transition-zone discontinuities are generally attributed to variations in temperature, causing local changes in the depth of the dominant phase transition. At moderate temperatures the dominant phase transitions are those of olivine, characterized by a positive Clapeyron slope (dP/dT) at 410 km depth and a negative Clapeyron slope at 660 km depth. An anticorrelation between topography on the 410 and 660-km discontinuities is therefore expected in the absence of variations in chemical composition, as an increase in temperature would lower the 410-km discontinuity and elevate the 660-km discontinuity. Simultaneously, this temperature increase would result in a decrease in seismic velocity and density of the mantle material. Comparing models of transition-zone topography, seismic velocity and density therefore gives valuable insight into the nature of transition-zone discontinuities. Existing global models of transition-zone topography have been created using SS and PP precursor measurements, which need to be corrected for mantle velocity structure using an independent velocity model before the discontinuity depths can be calculated. Here, we present new global models of transition-zone topography and whole-mantle S-wave velocity, P-wave velocity and density that have been simultaneously inferred from a different type of seismic data: Earth’s normal modes. Normal modes are whole-Earth oscillations induced by large earthquakes (Mw≥7.5). We use our models, which can be readily compared to one another, to analyze the nature of the transition-zone discontinuities. We also discuss the trade-offs between the different model parameters and the model uncertainties, the latter of which is additional information provided by the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method used for our inversion. Finally, we compare our models to transition-zone topography obtained from SS precursor data.

How to cite: van Tent, R. and Deuss, A.: New global constraints on transition-zone topography from normal-mode tomography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6563, 2022.

EGU22-7161 | Presentations | GD7.1 | Highlight

Regional variability in the thermal structure of Tibetan Lithosphere 

Bing Xia, Irina Artemieva, Hans Thybo, and Simon Klemperer

We present a thermal model- of lithospheric thickness and surface heat flow in Tibet and adjacent regions (74-110o E, 26-42o N) based on topography and seismic Moho. We interpret strong heterogeneity in lithospheric thermal structure to be caused by longitudinal variations in the northern extent of the subducting Indian plate, southward subduction of the Asian plate beneath central Tibet, and possible preservation of fragmented Tethyan paleo-slabs. Cratonic-type cold and thick lithosphere (200-240 km) with a predicted surface heat flow of 40-50 mW/m2 typifies the Tarim Craton, the northwest Yangtze Craton, and most of the Lhasa Block that is likely refrigerated by underthrusting Indian lithosphere. We identify a ‘North Tibet anomaly’ (at 84-92o E, 33-38o N) with thin (<80 km) lithosphere and high surface heat flow (>80-100 mW/m2) in a region with anomalous seismic Sn and Pn propagation. We interpret this anomaly as the result of removal of lithospheric mantle and asthenospheric upwelling at the junction of the Indian and Asian slabs with opposite subduction polarities. Other parts of Tibet typically have intermediate lithosphere thickness of 120-160 km and a surface heat flow of 45-60 mW/m2, with patchy anomalies in eastern Tibet.

How to cite: Xia, B., Artemieva, I., Thybo, H., and Klemperer, S.: Regional variability in the thermal structure of Tibetan Lithosphere, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7161, 2022.

EGU22-9483 | Presentations | GD7.1

Upper mantle structure beneath Bulgaria obtained by receiver function analysis 

Gergana Georgieva, Lev Vinnik, Sergey Oreshin, Larissa Makeyeva, Dragomir Dragomirov, Valentin Buchakchiev, and Liliya Dimitrova

Deep structure beneath the central part of the Balkan Peninsula was studied using P and S receiver function technique. Data from seismic stations from the Bulgarian National Seismological Network and several stations from neighbouring countries were used. Depth of Mohorovicic discontinuity has been estimated between 28–30 km in northern and central Bulgaria to 50 km in southwestern of Bulgaria. The 410 km mantle boundary is uplifted by 10 km relative to nominal depth in the area of Rhodopean Massif. In northern Bulgaria, the boundary is lowered by 10 km. Indications of a low-velocity layer are present at a depth exceeding 410 km. The thickness of the asthenosphere is estimated as 50 km and the depth of lithosphere-asthenosphere (LAB) boundary varies between 40 and 60 km.

The results of this study have been published in Vinnik et. al., Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2021, Vol. 57, No. 6, pp. 849–863. This research has been carried out as part of a joint project supported by the National Science Foundation of Bulgaria (grant no. KP-06-RUSIA/27.09.2019) and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR, grant no. 19-55-18008 Bolg_a).

How to cite: Georgieva, G., Vinnik, L., Oreshin, S., Makeyeva, L., Dragomirov, D., Buchakchiev, V., and Dimitrova, L.: Upper mantle structure beneath Bulgaria obtained by receiver function analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9483, 2022.

EGU22-10022 | Presentations | GD7.1

Finite-Frequency Body-Wave Tomography in Scandinavia 

Nevra Bulut and Hans Thybo

We present a P-wave velocity model of the upper mantle, obtained from finite-frequency body wave tomography, to analyze the relationship between deep and surface structures in Fennoscandia, one of the most studied cratons on Earth. The large array aperture of 2000 km by 800 km allows us to image the velocity structure to 800 km depth at very high resolution. The velocity structure provides background for understanding the mechanisms responsible for the enigmatic and debated high topography in the Scandinavian mountain range far from any plate boundary. Our model shows exceptionally strong velocity anomalies with changes by up to 6% on a 200 km scale. We propose that a strong negative velocity anomaly down to 200 km depth along all of Norway provides isostatic support to the enigmatic topography, as we observe a linear correlation between hypsometry and uppermost mantle velocity anomalies to 150 km depth in central Fennoscandia. The model reveals low velocity anomaly below the mountains underlain by positive velocity anomalies, which we explain by preserved original Svecofennian and Archaean mantle below the Caledonian/Sveconorwegian deformed parts of Fennoscandia. Strong positive velocity anomalies to around 200 km depth around the southern Bothnian Bay and the Baltic Sea may be associated with pristine lithosphere of the present central and southern Fennoscandian craton that has been protected from modification since its formation. However, the Archaean domain in the north and the marginal parts of the Svecofennian domains appear to have experienced strong modification of the upper mantle. A pronounced north-dipping positive velocity anomaly in the southern Baltic Sea extends below Moho. It coincides in location and dip with a similar north-dipping structure in the crust and uppermost mantle to 80 km depth observed from high resolution, controlled source seismic data. We interpret this feature as the image of a Paleoproterozoic boundary which has been preserved for 1.8 Gy in the lithosphere.

How to cite: Bulut, N. and Thybo, H.: Finite-Frequency Body-Wave Tomography in Scandinavia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10022, 2022.

EGU22-10848 | Presentations | GD7.1

New constraints on the thermochemical properties of Earth’s upper and mid-mantle from ScS reverberation data 

Rashni Anandawansha, Lauren Waszek, and Benoit Tauzin

Seismic topography models reveal that both upwelling plumes and downgoing slabs are deflected or stagnate at various depths in Earth’s mantle transition zone (MTZ) and mid-mantle (MM). Deflection within the MTZ is associated with the mineral physics phase changes at 410 and 660-km depth, however the cause of deflection in the MM remains debated. There are no candidate mineral transformations to explain the varied MM reflectors that have been detected [Waszek et al., 2018], instead indicating widespread compositional heterogeneities. Furthermore, our recent thermal model [Waszek et al., 2021] reveals a link between high temperatures in the MTZ and surface activity, indicating that some plumes are able to traverse this region unimpeded. Illuminating the detailed seismic structures of the upper and mid-mantle is key to determine the link between reflectors, temperature, composition, and dynamics.

Here, we present a new large global dataset of ScS reverberations, compiled using an automatic waveform identification code based on Convolutional Neural Networks [Garcia et al., 2021]. Mantle discontinuities and reflectors generate precursors to ScSn phases, and postcursors to sScSn. Here, we present a new method to correct for 3D mantle structure in which we remove the symmetry problem suffered by most of these phases. The data are stacked to reveal the small amplitude reverberation signals, and our correction method allows us to stack for five ScSn and sScSn phases simultaneously to obtain the highest possible data coverage. For the global MTZ discontinuities, we use “adaptive stacking”. Based on Voronoi tessellation, the method automatically adjusts for topography, noise, and data coverage. Regional-scale fixed bin parameterisations of varying sizes are used to search for the intermittent MM reflectors.

We incorporate our seismic observations with mineral physics modelling, inverting for a realistic range of potential temperatures and basalt-harzburgite mixtures to obtain the best-matching thermochemical model for the MTZ. We first compare our new ScS MTZ model with its counterpart generated from SS and PP precursors [Waszek et al., 2021], to benchmark observational differences between data types. We next investigate the link or lack thereof between our MTZ model and detections of MM signals, to place improved constraints on variations in properties with depth. The final step is interpretation of our observations and modelling in the context of geodynamical simulations of mantle convection. Our outputs will contribute to greater understanding of the complex relationship between MTZ discontinuities and MM reflectors, with implications for global mantle circulation, compositional layering beneath the MTZ, and even surface activity. 

 

 

References:

Waszek, Schmerr, Ballmer. 2018.

Garcia, Waszek, Tauzin, Schmerr. 2021.

How to cite: Anandawansha, R., Waszek, L., and Tauzin, B.: New constraints on the thermochemical properties of Earth’s upper and mid-mantle from ScS reverberation data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10848, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10848, 2022.

EGU22-13229 | Presentations | GD7.1

Seismic evidence for a 1000-km mantle discontinuity under the Pacific 

Zhendong Zhang, Jessica Irving, Frederik Simons, and Tariq Alkhalifah

Seismic discontinuities in the mantle are indicators of its thermo-chemical state and offer clues
to its dynamics. Ray-based imaging methods, though limited by the approximations made, have
mapped mantle transition zone (MTZ) discontinuities in detail, but have yet to offer definitive
conclusions on the presence and nature of mid-mantle discontinuities. We use a waveequation-
based imaging method to image both MTZ and mid-mantle discontinuities, and
interpret their physical nature. We focus on precursors to the surface-reflected seismic phases
PP, SS, PS, and SP to produce images of deep reflectors using reverse-time migration (RTM),
employing the full-waveform tomographic model GLAD-M25 for wavefield extrapolation. Our
adjoint-based inverse modeling accounts for more of the physics of wave propagation than raybased
stacking methods, which leads to improved accuracy and realistic precision of the
obtained images. The relative amplitude and location of the imaged reflectors are indeed well
resolved, but an interpretation of absolute amplitudes in terms of reflection coefficients
remains elusive. We observe a thinned mantle transition zone southeast of Mauna Loa, Hawaii,
and a reduction in impedance contrast around 410 km depth in the same area. These
observations coincide with anomalously low S-wavespeeds in the background tomographic
model, suggesting a hotter-than-average mantle in the region. Our new images furthermore
reveal a 4000—5000 km-wide reflector in the mid mantle below the central Pacific, at 950—
1050 km depth. This discontinuity displays strong topography and is marked by a polarity
opposite to that of the 660-km discontinuity, implying an impedance reversal near 1000 km.
We speculate that this mid-mantle discontinuity is linked to the mantle plumes rising from the
large low shear-velocity province (LLSVP) at the base of the mantle below this region. Some
seismic tomography models are in support of this interpretation, while others remain at odds---
a discrepancy that our observations may help resolve.

How to cite: Zhang, Z., Irving, J., Simons, F., and Alkhalifah, T.: Seismic evidence for a 1000-km mantle discontinuity under the Pacific, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13229, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13229, 2022.

SM6 – Crustal Fluids & Seismic Activity (incl. induced & triggered seismicity, volcano seismology)

EGU22-462 | Presentations | SM6.1

Hydroacoustic observations of a seismic cluster at Melville Fracture Zone along the Southwest Indian Ridge in 2016-17 

Vaibhav Vijay Ingale, Sara Bazin, and Jean-Yves Royer

Seismic clusters of volcanic and tectonic events along mid-oceanic ridges are inherent to seafloor spreading. Due to the rapid attenuation of seismic waves in the solid Earth, land-based seismic networks lack the low-level seismicity associated with such clusters. However, regional studies using autonomous underwater hydrophones overcome this difficulty due to their sensitivity to low-frequency hydroacoustic waves, known as T-waves, that travel in the SOund Fixing And Ranging (SOFAR) channel over very long distances with little attenuation. Using hydroacoustic records from the temporary OHASISBIO network and permanent stations of the CTBT Organization, we have examined a seismic cluster near the Melville Fracture Zone (FZ) at 61°E along the ultraslow spreading Southwest Indian Ridge (spreading rate: 14-15 mm/yr).

Near 61°E, 259 events were reported in the International Seismological Center (ISC) catalogue between 9th June 2016 and 25th March 2017 in the region of 3 x 3 degrees in latitude and longitude around Melville Transform. Out of them, 17 events display normal faulting mechanisms parallel to the ridge axis (Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) solutions).

In the preliminary analysis, we have detected 4273 hydroacoustic events between 9th June and 11th July 2016, vs 28 events in the ISC catalogue, so with ~150-fold increase in the event detections. These events are mostly aligned parallelly to the ridge axis near its intersection with the Melville FZ. The event median uncertainties are ~4.7 km in latitude and longitude, and ~1.4 s in origin time. Their median acoustic magnitude or Source Level (SL) is 225.26 dB.

This seismic cluster includes several highly energetic and short duration (~10 s) impulsive events, located on the slopes of seamounts near the FZ at 61.2°E. These events are interpreted as thermal explosions resulting from direct magma supplies on the seafloor. Also, most of the hydroacoustic events are clustered around the same seamounts. There is no evidence for long mainshock-aftershock sequence at the onset of this seismic cluster. These observations point to a magmatic origin for this seismic cluster with an active source located near a chain of seamounts in the vicinity of Melville FZ.

How to cite: Ingale, V. V., Bazin, S., and Royer, J.-Y.: Hydroacoustic observations of a seismic cluster at Melville Fracture Zone along the Southwest Indian Ridge in 2016-17, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-462, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-462, 2022.

EGU22-1068 | Presentations | SM6.1

Injection-induced sequences give us insights about what is happening at depth during natural earthquake swarms 

Philippe Danre, Louis De Barros, and Frédéric Cappa

Natural earthquake swarms occur in various geological contexts, and are usually interpreted as driven by fluid pressure diffusion. However, little is known about their fluid-driving processes, as no direct observations of either fluid and deformation are possible at such depths. To improve our understanding of the processes involved in swarms, we develop a quantitative comparison between natural and injection-induced swarms. Fluid injections in the crust, for instance geothermal reservoir development or wastewater storage, are accompanied by a prolific seismicity, that can be related to the fluid-pressure perturbation and potentially in association with aseismic slip at depth. It is well-accepted that the released seismic moment scales with injected fluid volume, but proposed relations usually not consider the contribution of aseismic deformation. Constraining such a relation might provide information on what happens at depth during natural earthquake swarms. Indeed, based on the numerous similarities observed between natural and injection-induced swarms, we confirm that both types of sequences seem to obey the same physics. In our work, we establish a framework to relate seismic observables to the fluid volume circulating at depth. This allows us to quantify aseismic slip for all types of swarms, but also to estimate the volume of fluids circulating at depth during natural earthquake swarms. By focusing on several natural swarms, this sheds a new light on the processes driving swarms of seismicity.

How to cite: Danre, P., De Barros, L., and Cappa, F.: Injection-induced sequences give us insights about what is happening at depth during natural earthquake swarms, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1068, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1068, 2022.

EGU22-2319 | Presentations | SM6.1

Spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity in the northern Armutlu Peninsula (northwest Turkey) 

Gian Maria Bocchini, Patricia Martínez-Garzón, Alessandro Verdecchia, Rebecca M. Harrington, Marco Bohnhoff, Taylan Turkmen, and Murat Nurlu

The Armutlu Peninsula, bounded between two major sub-branches of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) at the eastern Sea of Marmara, hosts the only onshore NAF segment along the Marmara seismic gap. It also hosts intense seismic and hydrothermal activity and documented episodes of aseismic slip. Here, we investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity in the northern Armutlu Peninsula to identify primary deformational mechanisms (i.e. seismic vs aseismic) and investigate the processes driving the seismicity. We employ multi-station matched-filter techniques to generate an enhanced seismicity catalog using up to 30 seismic stations, including regional permanent stations augmented by temporary stations from the SMARTnet network. We detect 7,677 events between 2019.01.25 and 2020.02.10, and successfully relocate 4,182 of them using double-difference methods. The enhanced seismicity catalog reveals four week-long sequences with up to ~> 200 events per day alternating in month-long periods with only < 10-20 events per day. Earthquakes primarily concentrate within a narrow region of ~80 km2 between 40.540°-40.600° N and 28.920°-29.025° E, forming linear structures striking from NW-SE to N-S at 5-12 km depth. Nearest-neighbor cluster analysis shows a gradual decrease of the ratio between swarm-like and burst-like activity, accompanied by a decrease of the background activity rates from the first to the fourth seismic sequence. Periods with predominantly swarm-like behavior and increased background activity exhibit a higher b-value. We invert focal mechanism solutions of background seismicity and obtain an extensional stress regime for the broader Armutlu Peninsula and a transtensional stress regime for the narrow, most seismically active region. Within the narrow seismically most active region the minimum compressive stress (σ3) is approximately horizontal and well defined, while the maximum (σ1) and intermediate (σ2) compressive stresses are close in magnitude and less well constrained. Moreover, in the most seismically active region, we observe that the principal stress orientations obtained from aftershocks is similar to that estimated from background seismicity. In contrast, the respective orientations of σ1 and σ2 inferred from foreshocks switch from vertical and horizontal to horizontal and vertical. Clusters of both normal faulting and strike-slip events identified through waveform based clustering analysis are optimally oriented with respect to the regional stress field, where normal faulting kinematics are predominant. We observe negligible seismic activity associated with the onshore segment of the NAF in the Marmara seismic gap. In contrast, we observe seismicity at 5-12 km depth that highlights the geometry of a major normal fault structure, the Waterfall fault, in the northern Armutlu Peninsula. The seismicity distribution and stress-field orientation suggest that the Waterfall fault exerts a primary control in the deformation of the northern Armutlu Peninsula.

How to cite: Bocchini, G. M., Martínez-Garzón, P., Verdecchia, A., Harrington, R. M., Bohnhoff, M., Turkmen, T., and Nurlu, M.: Spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity in the northern Armutlu Peninsula (northwest Turkey), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2319, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2319, 2022.

Seismic swarms at volcanic regions are important manifestations of volcanic unrest. While they are often inferred to be related to fluid or magma movements, their underlying process remains an active research topic. In particular, quantifying the proportion of seismic swarms that are related to magma movement can potentially improve their utility for eruption forecasting. To better understand the relationship between seismic swarms and magma movement, we focus on the Akutan volcano where episodic inflations have been recorded every 2-3 years since 2002. We first applied template matching on continuous seismic waveforms between 2005-2017 to improve the earthquake catalog’s magnitude of completeness. We further classified the events as long-period (LP) or regular volcano-tectonic (VT) events based on their frequency content. After waveform-based double-difference relocation, we find that the VT and LP events are concentrated above and below the shallow magma reservoir respectively. We clustered the VT and LP events based on their spatiotemporal evolution and find that most clusters are swarm-like with no clear mainshock-aftershock sequences. Based on their temporal relation to the inflation episodes, we infer that the LP swarms are related to ascending magma into the shallow reservoir, which sometimes triggers VT swarms through stress transfer.

How to cite: Song, Z. and Tan, Y. J.: Relationship between seismic swarms and episodic inflations at Akutan Volcano in Alaska, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3364, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3364, 2022.

EGU22-3468 | Presentations | SM6.1 | Highlight

A massive earthquake swarm driven by magmatic intrusion at the Bransfield Strait, Antarctica 

Simone Cesca, Monica Sugan, Łukasz Rudzinski, Sanaz Vajedian, Peter Niemz, Simon Plank, Gesa Petersen, Zhiguo Deng, Eleonora Rivalta, Alessandro Vuan, Milton Percy Plasencia Linares, Sebastian Heimann, and Torsten Dahm

A swarm of ~85,000 volcano-tectonic earthquakes started in August 2020 at the Bransfield Strait, between the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula. The Bransfield Basin is a unique back-arc basin, where the past active subduction slowed down dramatically ~4 Ma, leaving a small remnant of the former Phoenix plate incorporated in the Antarctic plate. Today there is no clear evidence for recent normal seafloor spreading. Continental crust is thinning to develop oceanic crust and the current extension is either attributed to the Phoenix Block subduction and rollback or to shear between the Scotia and Antarctic plates. The 2020 seismicity occurred close to the Orca submarine volcano, previously considered inactive. Geodetic data reported a transient deformation with up to ~11 cm northwestward displacement over King George Island. We use a wide variety of geophysical data and methods to reveal the complex migration of seismicity, accompanying the intrusion of 0.26-0.56 km3of magma off the Orca seamount at ~20 km depth. Deeper, clustered strike-slip earthquakes mark the magmatic intrusion at depth, while shallower normal faulting events are induced by the growth of a lateral dike, extending ~20 km NE-SW. Seismicity abruptly decreased after the largest Mw 6.0 earthquake, suggesting the magmatic dike lost pressure with the slipping of a large fault and the opening of upward paths. A seafloor eruption is likely, but not confirmed by sea surface roughness or temperature anomalies. The unrest documents episodic magmatic intrusion in the Bransfield Strait and provides unique insights into active continental rifting.

How to cite: Cesca, S., Sugan, M., Rudzinski, Ł., Vajedian, S., Niemz, P., Plank, S., Petersen, G., Deng, Z., Rivalta, E., Vuan, A., Plasencia Linares, M. P., Heimann, S., and Dahm, T.: A massive earthquake swarm driven by magmatic intrusion at the Bransfield Strait, Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3468, 2022.

EGU22-5154 | Presentations | SM6.1

The nature of seismicity in a complex volcanic rift setting 

Miriam Christina Reiss, James Muirhead, Amani Laizer, Emmanuel Kazimoto, Cynthia Ebinger, Frederik Link, and Georg Rümpker

Deciphering the nature of seismicity in regions of active magmatic and tectonic areas is critical when examining the interplay between faulting, magmatism and magmatic fluids. Here, we present a rich seismic data set from a 15-month temporary network from the Natron basin of the East African Rift System, which provides an ideal location to study these processes owing to its recent magmatic-tectonic activity and ongoing active carbonatite volcanism at Oldoinyo Lengai. We report seismicity, seismic swarms and their fault plane solutions which we use to constrain the complex volcanic plumbing system and long-term tectonic processes.

Between March 2019 and May 2020, we locate ~10 000 earthquakes with ML -0.85 to 3.6. These are related to ongoing magmatic and volcanic activity in the region, as well as regional tectonic extension. We observe seismicity down to ~17 km depth north and south of Oldoinyo Lengai and shallow seismicity (3 - 10 km) beneath the inactive shield volcano Gelai, including two likely fluid driven swarms. The deepest seismicity (down to ~20 km) occurs above a previously imaged magma body below Naibor Soito volcanic field. These seismicity patterns reveal a detailed image of a complex volcanic plumbing system, supporting potential lateral and vertical connections between shallow- and deep-seated magmas, where fluid and melt transport to the surface is facilitated by intrusion of dikes and sills.

Focal mechanisms vary spatially and are a strong indicator for differences between magmatic and tectonic forces. T-axis trends reveal dominantly WNW-ESE extension near Gelai, while strike-slip mechanisms and a radial trend in P-axes are observed in the vicinity of Oldoinyo Lengai. These observations support local variations in the state of stress, resulting from a combination of volcanic edifice loading and magma-driven stress changes imposed on a regional extensional stress field. Our results indicate that the southern Natron basin is a segmented rift system, in which fluids preferentially percolate vertically and laterally in a region where strain transfers from a border fault to a developing magmatic rift segment.

How to cite: Reiss, M. C., Muirhead, J., Laizer, A., Kazimoto, E., Ebinger, C., Link, F., and Rümpker, G.: The nature of seismicity in a complex volcanic rift setting, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5154, 2022.

EGU22-5645 | Presentations | SM6.1

Spatiotemporal evolution of the 2020 Perachora peninsula earthquake sequence (East Corinth Rift, Greece) and its association with pore-fluid pressure diffusion 

Georgios Michas, Vasilis Kapetanidis, Ioannis Spingos, George Kaviris, and Filippos Vallianatos

In 2020, a pronounced earthquake sequence occurred at the Perachora peninsula, at the eastern edge of the active continental Corinth Rift (Greece). The sequence evolved as a swarm over the course of four months, with the largest magnitude event (Mw=3.7) occurring approximately 2 months after its initiation. The sequence was widely felt by the local population, rising public concern regarding its evolution and a possibly impending stronger and damaging event. Herein, we use seismic waveform data from the Hellenic Unified Seismic Network (HUSN) to decipher the spatiotemporal evolution of the sequence and to investigate the possible triggering mechanisms. We use a custom velocity model for the area and apply the double-difference algorithm to relocate earthquake hypocenters at the East Corinth Rift for the period January 2020 – June 2021. Although the area lacks a local dense network, the herein analysis is able to reduce the relative location uncertainties and to enhance the spatial resolution of the catalogue, providing clues on the activated structures at depth. The spatiotemporal evolution of the sequence presented distinct characteristics of earthquake migration. The Perachora earthquake swarm initiated at shallow depths at the easternmost side of the activated area and progressively migrated towards greater depths to the northwest and then west. The observed seismicity migration pattern is consistent with an expanding parabolic front of hydraulic diffusivity D=2.8 m2/s and an average velocity of 0.22 km/day, indicating pore-fluid pressure diffusion as the primary triggering mechanism. This result is further supported by the relatively high diffusion exponent of the sequence (α=0.89±0.06), which is consistent with anomalous fluid transport phenomena in heterogeneous and fractured media. Overall, the analysis and results demonstrate that the sequence was triggered by fluid overpressures. The source of fluids is likely the down-going flux of meteoric water, possibly combined with fluids of hydrothermal affinity due to the area’s proximity to the Sousaki geothermal system. The activated structures are linked with the Pisia Fault Zone, a major tectonic feature in the area that was activated during the 1981 Alkyonides earthquakes; a series of three Mw > 6 events within a period of few days, which caused severe damage and fatalities in the broader area, including Athens.          

Acknowledgements

The research project was supported by the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (H.F.R.I.) under the “2nd Call for H.F.R.I. Research Projects to support Post-Doctoral Researchers” (Project Number: 00256).

How to cite: Michas, G., Kapetanidis, V., Spingos, I., Kaviris, G., and Vallianatos, F.: Spatiotemporal evolution of the 2020 Perachora peninsula earthquake sequence (East Corinth Rift, Greece) and its association with pore-fluid pressure diffusion, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5645, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5645, 2022.

EGU22-5869 | Presentations | SM6.1

Analysis of fluid induced earthquake swarms in Northern Main Ethiopian Rift 

Martina Raggiunti, Derek Keir, Carolina Pagli, and Aude Lavayssière

An increase of fluid pressure can induce fault slip and therefore lead to the occurrence of earthquakes. The aim of our works is to investigate this phenomenon from a seismic point of view.

We analyzed the EAGLE seismic database, that includes the earthquakes that occurred in the Northern Main Ethiopian Rift (NMER) from October 2001 to February 2003, with the aim of achieving accurate earthquake locations that show subsurface fault structure and temporal behavior. The earthquakes in the database were relocated with a number different methods including double difference relative relocation following waveform cross correlation. We focus on the Fentale-Dofan magmatic segment, an area involved in the active rifting process with a widespread seismicity and with the presence of surface hydrothermal deposits that suggest ongoing hydrothermal activity. The earthquakes were first relocated with NonLinLoc using a non-linear method and the velocity model from controlled source seismology. The events relocated with NonLinLoc was divided in four distinct clusters, with three clusters in the rift and one cluster on the western border fault. Each cluster was then relocate separately with HypoDD double-difference location algorithm, including implementation of waveform cross correlation. From the earthquake magnitudes, b-values and seismic moment were also computed. Seismic data was interpreted with hydrothermal surface data obtained from automated remote mapping from Landasat 8 images.

The analysis of the temporal-spatial distribution of earthquakes shows that some of the clusters are strongly concentrated in time and in space, and therefore swarm-like. These swarms are characterized by events with similar waveforms. There is direct correlation between the increase of seismic rate in the cluster and the presence of families of similar earthquakes. The values found for the seismic moment suggest that the events are originated from activation of rift related structures. This is supported by the N to NE elongation strike of seismic clusters highlighted by the HypoDD location, in accordance with the tectonic setting of the area. The events are mostly localized in the top 15 km of the crust. The b-values calculated for the clusters are smaller than 1, with the exception for the cluster localized near Dofan volcanic complex. The hydrothermal deposits mapped by us are mainly focused in two areas: on the western side of Dofan volcanic complex, in an area intense faulted by NNE-SSW faults; and around the Fentale volcano with a circular pattern on southern side of volcanic edifice.

The no clear correlation between seismicity and mapped hydrothermal deposits suggesting that seismicity is not driven by shallow hydrothermal fluid flow. It is possible to conclude that these earthquakes have a component fluid induced, but the origin of these fluids are deeper than the fluids that feed the hydrothermal systems.

How to cite: Raggiunti, M., Keir, D., Pagli, C., and Lavayssière, A.: Analysis of fluid induced earthquake swarms in Northern Main Ethiopian Rift, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5869, 2022.

EGU22-6917 | Presentations | SM6.1

Aseismic slip and cascade triggering process of foreshocks leading to the 2021 Mw 6.1 Yangbi Earthquake 

Xiao Ge Liu, Wen Bin Xu, Zi Long He, Li Hua Fang, and Zhi Dan Chen

Understanding the nature of foreshock evolution is important for earthquake nucleation and hazard evaluation. Aseismic slip and cascade triggering processes are considered to be two end-member precursors in earthquake nucleation processes. However, to perceive the physical mechanisms of these precursors leading to the occurrence of large events is challenging. In this study, the relocated 2021 Yangbi earthquake sequences are observed to be aligned along the NW-SE direction and exhibit several evident spatial migration fronts towards the hypocenters of large events including the mainshock. An apparent static Coulomb stress increase on the mainshock hypocenter was detected, owing to the precursors. This suggests that the foreshocks are manifestations of aseismic transients that promote the cascade triggering of both the foreshocks and the eventual mainshock. The temporal depth of the brittle-ductile transition exhibit deepening, followed by shallowing during the foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequence. By jointly inverting both InSAR and GNSS data, we observe that the mainshock ruptured on a blind vertical fault with a peak slip of 0.8 m. Our results demonstrate that the lateral crustal extrusion and lower crustal flow are probably the major driving  mechanisms of mainshock. Additionally, the potential seismic hazards on the Weixi-Weishan and Red River faults deserve further attention

How to cite: Liu, X. G., Xu, W. B., He, Z. L., Fang, L. H., and Chen, Z. D.: Aseismic slip and cascade triggering process of foreshocks leading to the 2021 Mw 6.1 Yangbi Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6917, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6917, 2022.

EGU22-7757 | Presentations | SM6.1

Clustering and event similarity based fault characterization of post mining induced seismicity of Gardanne mine, France 

Dalija Namjesnik, Peter Niemz, Jannes Kinscher, Simone Cesca, Isabelle Contrucci, Pascal Dominique, and Hideo Aochi

In post-mining environments, seismic hazard is still not very well understood, as number of research studies remains limited. Seismicity is often considered in post-mining risk mitigation procedures as a precursory of failure initiation in rocks within the mining works leading to ground instabilities. However, flooding of the mines can also lead to perturbations of stress states and pore pressures within the rock mass leading to failure of pre-existing faults, which may have more important impact on public safety due to a potentially longer period of activity and possibly higher magnitudes of the induced seismic events depending on the fault size.  

In a former coal mine in Gardanne, France, which was abandoned in 2003 and flooded afterwards, seismicity started appearing and raising concerns since 2010, when flooding reached the center of the mining basin. The seismic activity has been occurring approximately every two years in the form of crises. Events were also felt by the local population. A sparse temporary monitoring network has been installed in 2013 in this seismically active area. Based on research results so far, seismicity originates from the reactivation of faults underlying the mining excavations and is influenced by flooding, pumping of the water, and seasonal meteorological conditions. 

We investigate the clustering behavior and multiplet occurrences within the seismic events recorded by the sparse temporary microseismic network between 2014 and 2017. Detailed cluster analyses, the spatio-temporal distribution, recurrence time patterns, and source parameters help to characterize seismically active structure(s) below the mining works. The triggering of the seismic activity in each cluster appears to be differently influenced by the hydro-meteorological conditions, with some clusters being more affected by rainfall, while other by dry period. The variations of the pumping rate strongly affect the rate of seismicity in this area as well. The analysis is complemented by incorporating a new dataset recorded by an enhanced monitoring network during 2019, which allows to follow the evolution of the cluster activity. 

How to cite: Namjesnik, D., Niemz, P., Kinscher, J., Cesca, S., Contrucci, I., Dominique, P., and Aochi, H.: Clustering and event similarity based fault characterization of post mining induced seismicity of Gardanne mine, France, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7757, 2022.

EGU22-8100 | Presentations | SM6.1

Insight into the mechanics of seismic swarms triggered by water-reservoir impoundment 

Beata Orlecka-Sikora, Grzegorz Lizurek, Łukasz Rudziński, Dorota Olszewska, and Taghi Shirzad

Water Reservoir Impoundment (WRI) can trigger swarms and strong earthquakes under favorable geological conditions. Although many studies have investigated the relationship between the pore pressure changes due to WRI and the observed seismicity, hydromechanical models that explain the observed processes are rare. We investigated the role of hydromechanical interactions in producing earthquake swarm bursts under pore pressure changes, using the Song Tranh 2 Water Reservoir Impoundment (WRI) in Vietnam as an example. Our work contributes to the investigation of the physical mechanisms responsible for earthquake swarms. We find that the seismic swarms accompanying WRI represent the shearing of a damage fault zone composed of multiple interfering surfaces. The source parameters of seismic swarms image the quasi-dynamic weakening of the fault damage zone. Fault weakening during the propagation of seismic rupture is a key process governing the earthquake rupture dynamics and energy partitioning. Quasi-dynamic weakening evolution means here that it captures histories of fault zone slip, including the seismic slip phases within this zone, and slip weakening shows a memory effect that fades with time. Based on the calculated traction evolution within the damage zones in ST2 we estimate the effective slip-weakening distance , which is a significant parameter for characterizing a fault-weakening process. The observed quasi-dynamic weakening process is fluid driven at slower migration velocity of the order of meters/day but over short duration the migration of seismicity accelerates to velocities of kms/day. We therefore conclude that the seismic swarms are driven by a combination of fluid pressurization and stress perturbation through aseismic slip induced by pore pressure changes.

This work was partially financed by National Statutory Activity of the Ministry of Education and Science of Poland No 3841/E-41/S/2021 (BOS, ŁR, TS, GL), and Polish National Science Centre grant No UMO-2017/27/B/ST10/01267 (GL), and co-financed by the European Union and the Polish European Regional Development Fund grant No POIR.04.02.00-14-A003/16 (DO)

How to cite: Orlecka-Sikora, B., Lizurek, G., Rudziński, Ł., Olszewska, D., and Shirzad, T.: Insight into the mechanics of seismic swarms triggered by water-reservoir impoundment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8100, 2022.

EGU22-9312 | Presentations | SM6.1

Triggered Earthquakes Reveal Hydraulic Properties of the Subsurface 

Andrew Delorey, Xioafei Ma, and Ting Chen

Seismicity both at The Geysers geothermal field (northern California) and in north-central Oklahoma is heavily influenced by industrial activities related to energy production, though the mechanism in which earthquakes are induced or triggered is different. At The Geysers, much of the seismicity is linked to thermoelastic stresses caused by injecting cold water into hot rocks, while in Oklahoma the seismicity is linked to a reduction of confining stress on faults due to increasing pore pressure resulting from wastewater injections. Here we show that these contrasting conditions are also evident in tidally-triggered earthquakes. At The Geysers, earthquakes preferentially occur during maximum extensional strain, which does not occur at the same time as maximum shear strain on optimally oriented faults in the regional stress field. In Oklahoma, earthquakes preferentially occur during maximum shear strain on optimally oriented faults, rather than maximum extensional strain. The magnitude of tidal extensional strain is naturally much greater than tidal shear strain. However, in a fluid saturated environment, pore pressure responds to changes in volume, which can counteract or reduce the effect of the applied stress. The difference in behavior at these two sites is indicative of the level of coupling between applied stress and pore pressure, corresponding to unsaturated conditions at The Geysers and high pore pressure in Oklahoma.

How to cite: Delorey, A., Ma, X., and Chen, T.: Triggered Earthquakes Reveal Hydraulic Properties of the Subsurface, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9312, 2022.

Earthquake swarms are generally interpreted as resulting from the redistribution of stresses within the crust. Swarms develop in response to fluid flow and poro-thermo-elastic stresses in reservoirs, aseismic slip on major faults, or during magmatic events in volcanic areas. However, our ability to quantify stress changes at depth from the observation of earthquake swarms is still very limited.  In his seminal study (Dieterich, 1994) was able to develop a model leading to a quantitative relationship between stress and seismicity rate. This model, based on non-interacting spring-and-slider systems undergoing rate-and-state friction was successful in determining stress conditions from seismicity rate in several active areas involving both tectonic and magmatic processes. This approach nevertheless relies on very strong assumptions, one of them being that no stress redistribution occurs following an earthquake. Stress redistributions are however known to drive earthquake sequences as observed during foreshock aftershock sequences. Ignoring this contribution might lead to wrong estimations of stress conditions at depth from seismicity rate.
In order to evaluate the role of stress redistribution in earthquake swarm dynamics, I present a new physics based earthquake simulator extending Dieterich's model. It consists of a set of planar rate-and-state frictional faults distributed in a 3D homogeneous elastic medium, and loaded by a prescribed stress history. Faults can have any size and orientation. Stress redistributions are thus fully accounted for.
The model is then used to investigate the relationship between seismicity rate and stressing history under different loading conditions (constant tectonic stressing, periodic loading) and fault properties (initial stress, frictional properties, relative distance between faults). In many cases, Dieterich's theory ignoring stress transfers captures many features of the seismicity rate patterns. This is particularly true for periodic loading, which generates frequency dependent seismicity modulation: at low frequency, seismicity rate scales exponentially with the loading stress, while at higher frequencies it tracks the stressing rate. The period separating the two modulation regimes is correctly predicted by Dieterich's theory. Under constant loading, seismicity rate is also constant (as predicted by Dieterich's theory) if the sequences are analysed over long enough time series involving several seismic cycles on each fault. At a shorter time scale however, significant clustering (not predicted by Dieterich's approach) arises, in particular for compact fault distributions enhancing the stress redistributions. 
More generally, the approach presented here allows to define the mechanical conditions leading to a significant contribution of stress transfers in the development of earthquake swarms.

How to cite: Dublanchet, P.: What is the contribution of stress redistribution in earthquake swarm dynamics?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10369, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10369, 2022.

EGU22-10517 | Presentations | SM6.1

Earthquake swarms and clusters in stable continental regions: a case study from Northern Norway 

Hasbi Ash Shiddiqi, Lars Ottemöller, Felix Halpaap, and Stéphane Rondenay

Parts of northern Norway, located between the rifted Mid Norwegian margin and the Northern Scandinavian mountains, are seismically active despite being situated in a stable continental region. Previously, seismic swarms have been observed in different places along the coast, but detailed studies on the swarms could not yet be carried out due to sparse seismic networks. During the last decade, the number of seismic stations has increased significantly, allowing for a more detailed study of the seismicity. Here, we develop a machine-learning-based earthquake catalog from eleven years of continuous data (2010-2021) and combine it with the earthquake catalog from the Norwegian National Seismic Network. To improve accuracy, we perform relative earthquake relocation using differential times, and clustering analysis based on waveform cross-correlation. The relocation results reveal distinct clusters of possibly repeating events and several swarm sequences. A prominent seismic swarm occurred in the Jektvik area between 2014 – 2016 with the largest magnitude of ML 3.2. We compare the spatio-temporal distribution, b-value, seismic moment rate, and seasonal variation of each sequence. The Jetkvik swarm exhibits a diffusive pattern, which together with a low VP anomaly found by a previous tomography study suggests that fluids may play a role in the source process. We find that the possibly repeating clusters are not as diffuse in space, and mostly spread along the vertical axis. These earthquake clusters may be attributed to fault intersections, and fluids may not be a major factor in their generation. 

How to cite: Shiddiqi, H. A., Ottemöller, L., Halpaap, F., and Rondenay, S.: Earthquake swarms and clusters in stable continental regions: a case study from Northern Norway, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10517, 2022.

EGU22-11943 | Presentations | SM6.1

Spatio-temporal patterns of fluid-driven aseismic slip transients: implications to seismic swarms 

Alexis Sáez and Brice Lecampion

Seismic swarms are often interpreted to be driven by natural fluid pressurization in the Earth’s crust, when seismicity is observed to spread away from a common origin and follows approximately a square-root-of-time pattern of growth. On the other hand, a growing body of literature suggests that aseismic fault slip seems to be a frequent result of fluid injections and may trigger seismicity due to the stress transfer of quasi-statically propagating ruptures in critically stressed regions. Although in some conditions a nominal pore pressure perturbation front may evolve proportionally to the square root of time, much less is known about the temporal patterns of fluid-driven aseismic slip fronts. The latter hinders efforts to distinguish whether some seismic swarms are driven by aseismic slip episodes or not. In this contribution, we provide an extensive set of physics-based solutions that describes the evolution of fluid-driven aseismic slip fronts for a wide range of conditions in terms of in-situ stress state and fluid flow. Our solutions show that fluid-driven aseismic slip fronts may result in many different patterns of propagation, depending on the characteristics of the fluid source (e.g., constant-pressure source, constant-rate source, among others) and also if simplified 2-D or fully 3-D elasticity is considered. Other parameters such as the initial stress state and fault hydraulic properties are also relevant in the propagation of the slip fronts. Our family of solutions includes cases in which aseismic slip fronts propagate following a square-root-of-time dependence, a linear expansion with time, power laws of time with exponents lower than ½, and some other more complex evolutions. These results are based on the model of a fluid-driven frictional shear crack that propagates on a planar fault interface characterized by a constant friction coefficient and a constant permeability, embedded in an infinite linearly elastic medium with an initially uniform state of stress. Although the basic assumptions of the model are simple, it results in a significant amount of complexity in terms of possible spatio-temporal patterns of rupture propagation. Since a constant friction coefficient corresponds to a fault interface with zero fracture energy, we show by analyzing the rupture-front energy balance of fluid-driven aseismic slip transients with non-zero fracture energy, that an asymptotic regime in which the fracture energy is negligible is always ultimately reached. This regime is approached asymptotically when the rupture has propagated over a distance larger than a characteristic length-scale depending on the frictional fracture energy and the in-situ stress state. We expect our results to provide a simple means to interpret observations of seismic swarms for which fluid-driven aseismic slip transients are thought to be a relevant mechanism in the triggering of seismicity.

How to cite: Sáez, A. and Lecampion, B.: Spatio-temporal patterns of fluid-driven aseismic slip transients: implications to seismic swarms, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11943, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11943, 2022.

EGU22-13176 | Presentations | SM6.1

March 2021 Thessaly, central Greece, seismic sequence:  domino effect of a complex normal fault system 

Vincenzo Convertito, Vincenzo De Novellis, Diego Reale, Guido Maria Adinolfi, and Eugenio Sansosti

The Thessaly seismic sequence (TSS) in Central Greece, started on 3 March 2021 with a Mw 6.3 event that struck an area located about 25 km WNW of the Larissa town. In the following days, TSS was affected by other two major events: An Mw 6.0 on March 4, localized about 7 km to the northwest of the first one, and a Mw 5.6 on March 12, located 12 km further towards the northwest of the second one. A large number of smaller events have been also recorded until mid-April when the sequence decreased in frequency and magnitude. The TSS represents the largest seismic sequence affecting a continental extensional domain in Greece that has been monitored by modern geodetic techniques. Thanks to the short satellite revisit time, InSAR measurements made it possible to isolate each contribution of the three major earthquakes of the sequence, thus allowing the study of their interactions. In addition, available geological data indicate that the northern sector of Thessaly represents a large seismic gap. This may be a direct consequence of the limited size of the faults (less than 20 km) and their intrinsic capability to originate earthquakes of small-to-moderate magnitude only. TSS, which finally filled the gap, confirmed this hypothesis.

We modelled the available InSAR deformation maps to retrieve the parameters characterizing some finite dislocation sources, which were used to perform a Coulomb stress transfer in order to investigate possible faults interactions. To constrain the geometry and location of the main fault structures involved during the TSS, we considered 1853 earthquakes occurred in the area from 28 February 2021 to 26 April 2021 with magnitude ranging between 0.2 and 6.3. Our model shows that the TSS has nucleated at shallow depths (<12 km) and is related to the activation of several blind, previously unknown, faults; moreover, the seismic sequence developed in a sort of domino effect involving a complex interaction among the normal faults within the activated crustal volume. As for the temporal evolution of the sequence, the delayed triggering of the Mw 6.0 earthquake can be explained by the distribution of the events occurred earlier, which encircle the asperities that will fail in the subsequent event together with a fluid diffusion in the seismogenic volume.

Finally, we highlight the key role played by the configuration of the Thessaly Basin characterized by blind faults interconnected at depth, particularly interesting from the neotectonics point of view. The used approach can help improving our knowledge on the seismic potential of the Thessaly region and refine the associated seismic hazard.

How to cite: Convertito, V., De Novellis, V., Reale, D., Adinolfi, G. M., and Sansosti, E.: March 2021 Thessaly, central Greece, seismic sequence:  domino effect of a complex normal fault system, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13176, 2022.

EGU22-16 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Statistical bounds on how induced seismicity stops 

Ryan Schultz, William Ellsworth, and Gregory Beroza

Earthquakes caused by human activities receive scrutiny due to the risks and hazards they pose.  Seismicity that occurs after the causative anthropogenic operation stops has been particularly problematic – both because of high-profile cases of damage caused by this trailing seismicity and due to the loss of control for risk management.  With this motivation, we undertake a statistical examination of how induced seismicity stops.  We borrow the concept of Båth’s law from tectonic aftershock sequences.  Båth’s law anticipates the difference between magnitudes in two subsets of seismicity as dependent on their population count ratio.  We test this concept for its applicability to induced seismicity, including ~80 cases of earthquakes caused by hydraulic fracturing, enhanced geothermal systems, and other fluid-injections with clear operational end points.  We find that induced seismicity obeys Båth’s law: both in terms of the magnitude-count-ratio relationship and the power law distribution of residuals.  Furthermore, the distribution of count ratios is skewed and heavy-tailed, with most earthquakes occur during stimulation/injection.  We discuss potential models to improve the characterization of these count ratios and propose a Seismogenic Fault Injection Test to measure their parameters in situ.  We conclude that Båth’s law quantifies the occurrence of earthquake magnitudes trailing anthropogenic operations.

How to cite: Schultz, R., Ellsworth, W., and Beroza, G.: Statistical bounds on how induced seismicity stops, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-16, 2022.

EGU22-2160 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Identification of The Processes Triggering Induced Seismicity at the Enhanced Geothermal System of Basel (Switzerland) 

Auregan Boyet, Silvia De Simone, and Vìctor Vilarrasa

Felt induced seismicity compromises the public perception on the deployment of geothermal power-plants in urban areas. Large induced earthquakes have led to the shutdown of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), such as Basel (Switzerland) and Pohang (Republic of Korea). In the majority of induced seismicity cases in EGS, the largest events occur after shut-in. Different mechanisms can trigger induced seismicity. Pore pressure diffusion is established as the most common triggering mechanism. It reduces the effective normal stress acting across pre-existing fault surfaces, weakening the shear resistance and allowing slip of faults. However, this is not the only triggering mechanisms and it cannot explain the large magnitude of post-injection induces seismicity. Additional influencing processes are poromechanical elastic stressing, shear stress transfer and local tectonic settings. Considering theses mechanisms simultaneously can provide a better understanding of the causes of post-injection seismicity and could allow to develop strategies to mitigate the occurrence of earthquakes with high magnitude. To explain these processes, we investigate the induced seismicity that led to the closure of the Basel EGS project. We set-up a hydro-mechanical finite element numerical model which contains faults corresponding with the clusters of induced events at Basel. We study the reactivation of these pre-existing fractures using a viscoplastic model. We are able to identify the process combinations bringing faults to failure. During injection, faults fail due to pore pressure diffusion in the vicinity of the well, and due to poroelastic stressing further in the reservoir. After the injection shut in, poroelastic stressing and shear stress transfer trigger seismicity, being the most relevant triggering mechanisms of post-injection induced seismicity.

How to cite: Boyet, A., De Simone, S., and Vilarrasa, V.: Identification of The Processes Triggering Induced Seismicity at the Enhanced Geothermal System of Basel (Switzerland), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2160, 2022.

Occurred in the Delaware Basin, western Texas, near the town of Mentone, the Mw 5.0 Mentone earthquake is one of the largest induced earthquakes in the central US. Within 25 km of the epicenter, there are a few deep injection wells to the northwest injecting in the high permeable limestone layer at about 22 km averagely, as well as a lot of shallow wells injecting in the upper high permeable sandstone layer at around 18 km averagely. Between the shallow sandstone and deep limestone layers is a thick shale layer with low permeability, which excludes the possibility of downward percolation of the injected fluid in the shallow injection layer. However, the cumulative injection volume of shallow injection wells is about five times as much as that of deep injection wells. Motivated by this, we investigate whether the shallow injection wells may play a role in triggering the Mw 5.0 Mentone earthquake through the injection-induced coupled poroelastic stress perturbations. We first perform focal mechanism inversion and earthquake relocation with the Cut and Paste (CAP) and hypoDD methods, respectively, to constrain the fault plane on which the Mw 5.0 event occurred. A south-facing fault plane with strike/dip of 81o/52o is successfully fitted. We then calculate the change of the Coulomb failure stress (ΔCFS) caused by the shallow injection wells at the mainshock location based on the linear fully coupled poroelastic stress model. The calculated ΔCFS of shallow injection wells is approximately 20 kPa and it is mostly contributed by the change in coupled poroelastic stress. Based on findings from other studies, this value of ΔCFS is sufficient in reactivating faults that are well aligned with the local stress field. Since we only account for about half of the total injection volume from the shallow wells in the calculation, we also hypothesize that the actual perturbations caused by shallow injection wells via the coupled poroelastic stress change would be more prominent. Our result reveals the vital role of injection-induced coupled poroelastic stress in triggering seismicity, especially in low permeable geologic settings.

How to cite: Tan, X. and Lui, S. K. Y.: The non-negligible contribution of shallow injection wells on the triggering of the Mw 5.0 Mentone earthquake via coupled poroelastic stress perturbations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3271, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3271, 2022.

EGU22-4117 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Acoustic Precursors to Laboratory Induced Fault Slip and Failure 

Aukje Veltmeijer, Milad Naderloo, and Auke Barnhoorn

With human activities in the subsurface increasing, so does the risk of induced seismicity. For mitigation of the seismic hazard and limiting the risk, monitoring and forecasting are essential. A laboratory study was performed to find precursors to fault failure. In this study, Red Pfaelzer sandstones samples were used, which are analog to the Groningen gas reservoir sandstones. A saw-cut fault was cut at 35 degrees, and the samples were saturated. Fault slip was induced by loading the sample at a constant strain rate, and simultaneously active acoustic transmission measurements were performed. Every 3 seconds 512 S-waves were sent, recorded, stacked to reduce the signal-to-noise ratio, and analyzed. The direct seismic wave velocity, coda wave velocity, and transmissivity were monitored before and during the reactivation of the faulted samples. Different loading patterns and confining pressures were investigated in combination with active acoustic monitoring. Velocity and amplitude variations were observed before the induced fault slip and can be used as precursory signals. Two methods to determine changing velocities were used. Direct S-wave velocities are compared to velocity change obtained by coda wave interferometry. Both analyses gave similar precursory signals, showing a clear change in slope, from increase to decreasing velocities and amplitudes prior to fault reactivation. Fault reactivation is preceded by fault creep and the destroying of some of the asperities on the fault plane, causing the seismic wave amplitude and velocity to decrease. Combining all precursors, the onset of fault slip can be determined and therefore upcoming slip can be forecasted in a laboratory setting. Our results show precursory changes in seismic properties under different loading situations and show a clear variation to the onset of fault reactivation. These results show the potential of continuous acoustic monitoring for detection and forecasting seismicity and help the mitigation of earthquakes.

How to cite: Veltmeijer, A., Naderloo, M., and Barnhoorn, A.: Acoustic Precursors to Laboratory Induced Fault Slip and Failure, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4117, 2022.

EGU22-4177 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Fault reactivation process in the laboratory: The role of stress cycling and pressurization rate 

Milad Naderloo, Aukje Veltmeijer, and Auke Barnhoorn

Over the last few decades, it has become apparent that different human activities in the subsurface, such as water waste injection, hydraulic fracturing, and geothermal energy production can lead to induced seismicity. Understanding the effects of fluid injection-related parameters on seismic response or evolution of it is essential for finding a method to manage and minimize the induced seismicity risk. Experimental and numerical studies indicate that varying injection patterns and rates can be used to effect and/or mitigate seismicity. However, most of the studies are for intact rock medium, and the mechanism of injection-induced seismicity of faulted rock medium is not clear yet. In this study, we performed fault reactivation experiments on faulted (saw-cut) Red Pfaelzer sandstones to provide new insight into the effect of stress/pressure cycling and rate on fault slip behavior and seismicity evolution. The saw-cut samples were subjected to two different reactivation mechanisms: 1) stress-driven and 2) injection-driven fault reactivation. Three different reactivation scenarios were performed during the stress-driven fault reactivation experiments: continuous sliding, cyclic sliding, and under-threshold cycling sliding. Ten AE transducers were used to detect microseismicity during the fault reactivation experiments, and consequently, different microseismic parameters, such as frequency-magnitude distribution (b-value), AE energy, and AE rate were estimated. Stress-driven fault reactivation experiments showed that (i) a below-threshold cycling scenario prevents seismicity and pure shear slip; however if the shear stress exceeds the previous maximum shear stress, seismicity risk increases drastically in terms of b-value, maximum AE energy, and magnitude. (ii) Compared to continuous sliding, cyclic sliding triggers less seismicity in terms of total b-value and large AE events due to the uniform reduction in roughness and asperity on the fault plane. (iii) By increasing the number of cycles, in general, the number of generated events and AE energy per cycle is reduced. Nevertheless, there is a risk of generating large AE events during the first cycles. In addition, results from the injection-driven fault reactivation experiments demonstrated that high injection rate results in higher peak slip velocity. Compared to the stepwise injection pattern, the cyclic recursive injection scenario showed higher peak slip velocity, due to the high hydraulic energy budget and fault compaction. A proper injection strategy needs to consider various factors, such as fault drainage, critical shear stress, injection rate, and injection pattern (frequency and amplitude). Our results demonstrate that selecting proper stress/pressure amplitude, and pressurization rate for the injection design strategy can help to reduce seismicity risk.  

How to cite: Naderloo, M., Veltmeijer, A., and Barnhoorn, A.: Fault reactivation process in the laboratory: The role of stress cycling and pressurization rate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4177, 2022.

EGU22-4204 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Injection-rate control on deformation and stress of an experimental fault in granite 

Yinlin Ji, Lei Wang, Hannes Hofmann, Grzegorz Kwiatek, and Georg Dresen

In this study, we conducted injection-driven shear tests on a sawcut fault in granite samples using a triaxial deformation apparatus. The granite samples were drilled from Odenwald basement rocks in Germany. The sawcut fault, inclined 30° to the sample axis, was ground using sandpaper with a particle size of 201 µm. Two boreholes (nominal diameter 1.8 mm) were drilled near the short edge of each sample half to allow direct fluid access to the fault surface. Eight strain gauges, and eight pairs of acoustic emission (AE) sensors attached on the sample surface were used to monitor the deformation, local strain and AE events. 

During the experiments, we first measured the peak shear strength of the faulted sample by advancing the axial piston at a constant rate of 1 µm/s under 36 MPa confining pressure and 1 MPa pore pressure. We then adjusted the shear stress to be 90% of the peak shear strength. Subsequently, the piston was fixed, and the first injection-driven shear test was initiated by injecting distilled water from the bottom borehole at a rate of 0.2 mL/min. We observed three full cycles of fast slip events until the injection pressure was increased up to approximately 18 MPa. We then reduced the pore pressure to the initial 1 MPa and the axial force was removed, followed by the second injection-driven shear test conducted at a higher injection rate of 0.8 mL/min using the same procedure as in the first test. We also observed three episodes of fast slip events until the injection pressure was increased to about 20 MPa. Fluid pressures were monitored continuously at the top and bottom boreholes. We employed a COMSOL model to obtain the time-dependent fluid pressure distribution along the sawcut fault during fluid injection.

For slow fluid injection, we find that the fault surface near the center experiences slight normal dilation and gradual shear stress release prior to the fast slip event. In contrast, for high-rate fluid injection, the same fault patch exhibits normal compaction and shear stress increase preceding fast slip. In both cases, significant normal dilation and abrupt shear stress drops were observed near the fault center during fast slip events. The distinct evolution of local fault deformation and stress are likely attributed to the distribution of slow slipping patches, as signified by the fluid pressure distribution and Mohr-Coulomb failure envelope. At slow injection rate, slow precursory slip may have occurred on the entire fault, initiating a fast slip event. In contrast, at higher rates, slow slip may have been localized around the injection port, resulting in local stress concentration beyond the slow slipping patch. Our results demonstrate that the evolution of local fault deformation and stress can be diverse in different fault patches, depending on the relative location to the fluid pressurized zone and the resulting slow slipping patch. This suggests that the strongly heterogeneous fault deformation should be considered when analyzing the precursors to injection-induced fault reactivation.

How to cite: Ji, Y., Wang, L., Hofmann, H., Kwiatek, G., and Dresen, G.: Injection-rate control on deformation and stress of an experimental fault in granite, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4204, 2022.

EGU22-4703 | Presentations | ERE5.1

The DEEP Project: Innovation for De-Risking Enhanced Geothermal Energy Projects 

Federica Lanza and Stefan Wiemer and the DEEP team

The Swiss Energy Strategy 2050 anticipates that by 2050 up to ~7% of the future energy production will come from deep geothermal energy. Likewise, many other countries worldwide are investigating the potential of harnessing deep geothermal energy as a renewable solution. However, seismic risk reduction and reservoir efficiency is the current major coupled problem faced by Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) reservoirs. Balancing risk and economic output is a key requirement in all EGS projects. The DEEP (Innovation for De-risking Enhanced geothermal Energy Projects) project is an international collaboration whose research-goal is to establish a full-scale protocol for real-time monitoring and risk analysis of potential seismicity triggered by EGS operations. To this end, the project will employ innovative seismic sensors, improved event-cataloguing techniques, fully probabilistic data-driven seismicity forecasts, and loss assessment strategies. In DEEP we plan to apply the so-called Adaptive Traffic Light System (ATLS) where forecasts are continuously updated with real-time data-feeds, providing an integrated and dynamic assessment of the seismic risk to the operators. Field test sites include the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) in Utah (USA), as well as at EGS sites in Germany and France. Parallel to the technology development, the project aims also at defining the next-generation good-practice guidelines and risk assessment procedures in order to reduce commercial costs and enhance the safety of future projects. Here, we will present an overview of the DEEP project to provide a framework for other DEEP presentations. We will also showcase a selection of results from new event detection and location algorithms based on machine learning and using Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), as well as the results from a pilot test of the ATLS workflow for seismicity forecast models for the upcoming FORGE stimulation strategy.

How to cite: Lanza, F. and Wiemer, S. and the DEEP team: The DEEP Project: Innovation for De-Risking Enhanced Geothermal Energy Projects, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4703, 2022.

EGU22-5332 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Thermal stressing is likely to reactivate distant faults in hot sedimentary aquifers 

Iman Rahimzadeh Kivi, Estanislao Pujades, Jonny Rutqvist, and Victor Vilarrasa

The widespread development of geothermal energy is deemed to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon future. Hot Sedimentary Aquifers (HSA) provide cost-effective and non-intermittent geothermal resources. However, HSA development has reportedly been associated with seismic events, harming the public perception of exploiting these resources. This work digs deeper into thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) mechanisms raised by water circulation in a HSA and their control on fault reactivation. We numerically simulate the problem by a 2D plane-strain model. The model consists of a porous and permeable hot aquifer sandwiched between the tight seal and base rocks and laterally bounded by two normal faults, representative of extensional tectonic environments. The horizontal injection-production well pairs are spaced 500 m apart at the middle of the aquifer, and the faults are located on each side of the doublet at a distance of 1 km. We consider two scenarios: low-permeability faults, mimicking a compartmentalized reservoir, and high-permeability faults, across which fluid flow takes place with further ease. We show that the fault permeability governs the hydraulic response of the reservoir. While the pore pressure slightly increases around the injector and decreases around the producer for the case of high-permeability faults, the compartmentalized reservoir experiences a global pore pressure decline. The latter is supported by the fact that the injected cold water is denser than the extracted hot water and occupies less space in the pore system. As soon as the thermal breakthrough occurs, which is after 12 years in the current setting, a more uniform temperature distribution across the doublet is established and the pressure begins to increase in the vicinity of the injector. Provided the high permeability of the reservoir rock, pore pressure and poroelastic stress perturbations impose rapid but minor effects on the fault stability. On the contrary, the cooling front formed around the injector lags much behind the pore pressure front toward the fault. The reservoir cooling contracts the rock and triggers stress reductions. Thermal stresses are transmitted much ahead of the cooled region and destabilize the fault located on the injection side. The fault begins to slip after 18 and 21 years of circulation for the high- and low-permeability scenarios, respectively. The reservoir pressure decrease in the latter case, attenuating the fault slip tendency, feeds into the observed difference in reactivation timings. Although thermal stresses initiate the slip, the static stress transfer jointly contributes to rupture nucleation along the fault. Interestingly, the slip-induced shear stress release, tied to a slip weakening frictional behavior, slows down elastic energy build-up on the other fault closer to the production well and impedes its reactivation. Our findings on the prolonged but dominant role of thermal stresses on the reactivation of distant faults have direct implications for safe and long-term production from geothermal systems.

How to cite: Rahimzadeh Kivi, I., Pujades, E., Rutqvist, J., and Vilarrasa, V.: Thermal stressing is likely to reactivate distant faults in hot sedimentary aquifers, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5332, 2022.

EGU22-5398 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Characterizing induced seismic events in the Groningen gas field using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler: a case study 

La Ode Marzujriban Masfara, Cornelis Weemstra, and Thomas Cullison

In May 2019, an earthquake with a magnitude of 3.4 (local magnitude) hit the area of the Westerwijtwerd village in the province of Groningen, the Netherlands. The event is the result of the gas extraction in the Groningen gas field and is one of the largest events to date. To better understand the source characteristics of the event, we apply a probabilistic full-waveform inversion technique that we recently developed to the event's recordings. Specifically, we use a variant of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm. When sampling high-dimensional model spaces, HMC is proven to be more efficient than the generic Metropolis-Hasting algorithm. Compared to probabilistic inversions of tectonic events, two main challenges arise while applying the algorithm. First, the prior information of the event is usually incomplete and inaccurate. That is, the only available information is (an estimate of) the hypocenter and origin time. Second, the frequency content of the induced event's seismograms is higher than that of typical tectonic events. This implies a higher non-linearity, which in turn complicates the ability of a probabilistic inversion algorithm to sample the model spaces, particularly when considering the first challenge. Consequently, to address both challenges, first, we develop a procedure to estimate the necessary prior information and use it as input to the HMC variant. Second, we run our HMC algorithm iteratively to mitigate the non-linearity. Using the relatively detailed velocity model of the Groningen gas field, we eventually estimate ten posteriors of the source parameters. The latter being the hypocenter (three parameters), the moment tensor (six independent parameters), and the origin time.  

How to cite: Masfara, L. O. M., Weemstra, C., and Cullison, T.: Characterizing induced seismic events in the Groningen gas field using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler: a case study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5398, 2022.

EGU22-5536 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Modeling of injection-induced seismicity in fractured rock masses with TOUGH3-seed hybrid solver 

Federico Ciardo and Antonio Pio Rinaldi

Injection of fluid in fractured reservoirs triggers seismicity that migrates away from injection point. The enlarging cloud of (micro-)seismicity can be driven by pore-fluid diffusion within fractured rock mass, thus propagating in space proportional to square root of time for an effective isotropic and homogenous medium, or by elastic-stress interactions between over-stressed pre-existing fractures.

In this contribution we adopt an hybrid approach to model seismicity evolution driven by pore-fluid propagation into a Discrete Fracture Network and apply it to a large-scale injection experiment at FORGE Test Site in Utah (USA). We couple a statistical seed model for seismicity with a physic-based solver for non-linear pore-fluid diffusion into a three-dimensional DFN (using TOUGH3). Local inelastic permeability changes mimick irreversible deformations and affect pore-fluid evolution and hence seismicity cloud.

Several synthetic catalogs are generated and compared with one generated with a pure physic-based numerical solver.

 

How to cite: Ciardo, F. and Rinaldi, A. P.: Modeling of injection-induced seismicity in fractured rock masses with TOUGH3-seed hybrid solver, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5536, 2022.

EGU22-5576 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Deciphering fluid extraction-induced earthquake nucleation in Groningen under rate-strengthening friction 

Meng Li, Andre R Niemeijer, Femke C Vossepoel, and Ylona van Dinther

Induced seismicity triggered by fluid injection or extraction has been studied extensively in recent years. However, models relying on a Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion for interseismic loading or using a linear slip-weakening friction law for dynamic earthquake rupture cannot quantify well how much aseismic slip accumulates prior to nucleation or how to explain nucleation. Instead, a rate-and-state friction law is extensively utilized in earthquake cycle models to resolve and understand earthquake nucleation. Moreover, laboratory experiments indicate that the relevant lithologies in the Groningen subsurface are velocity-strengthening under in-situ temperature, pressure and fluid chemistry conditions [1]. This property should in theory lead to a lower chance of earthquake nucleation, which makes it difficult to explain the occurrence of earthquakes in Groningen. We study how to explain earthquake nucleation under velocity-strengthening friction and how much aseismic slip can be expected. In this study, we model the normal-fault setup of the Groningen field under reservoir depletion with rate-and-state friction. Initial conditions are chosen to mimic healing over millions of years prior to gas production. We implement fault loading due to fluid pressure reduction and validate our loading stresses with analytical predictions in Jansen et al. [2]. We provide constraints on how much aseismic slip to expect during nucleation and evaluate its relevance to induced seismicity in Groningen. We systematically investigate scenarios with various fluid extraction rates and different rate-and-state friction properties (including rate-strengthening, rate-weakening and a mixture of both) of surrounding lithologies using constraints from laboratory observations. In this way we explore the rate of stress change needed for nucleation under rate-strengthening friction. Currently, we produced an event with slip rate below seismic rate. If seismic rates cannot be reached, we will add a second state variable describing cohesion weakening with time to assess how it affects earthquake nucleation. The impact of frictional property and stress rate to aseismic slip build-up and earthquake nucleation is compared to what is caused by varied reservoir off-set distance and fault dipping angle. Sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slips are studied to understand the long-term effect of fluid extraction, with the influence of the planned gas production termination taken into account. We find that during continuous fluid depletion earthquakes reoccur at increasing recurrence interval. Large dipping angle and relatively low Poisson ratio are necessary to achieve this if reservoir offset is zero. Slip or strain nucleation and distribution patterns produced by our models provide hints that can guide seismologists to identify aseismic slip from natural observations, which can in turn, support this study and constrain simulated fault properties. Ultimately, this will help to better understand the nucleation of induced seismicity with similar lithologies that are present across northwestern Europe and lead to a better understanding of the relevance of aseismic slip.

 

References

[1] Hunfeld, L. B., Niemeijer, A. R., & Spiers, C. J. (2017).  Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 122(11), 8969-8989.

[2] Jansen, J. D., Singhal, P., & Vossepoel, F. C. (2019).  Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 124, 7193– 7212.

 

How to cite: Li, M., Niemeijer, A. R., Vossepoel, F. C., and van Dinther, Y.: Deciphering fluid extraction-induced earthquake nucleation in Groningen under rate-strengthening friction, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5576, 2022.

EGU22-5699 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Seismic to aseismic slip scaling during fluid injection experiments 

Luigi Passarelli, Louis De Barros, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, and Stefan Wiemer

A growing number of direct and indirect measurements and observation indicates that aseismic slip transients are often induced during fluid injection operation alongside with swarm-like seismicity. The detection of fluid-induced aseismic slip has made a paradigm shift on our understanding of the spatio-temporal evolution of earthquake activity during injection operation, classically interpreted as triggered by a diffusive front of high pore pressure. Instead, unclamping of the fault by pressurization induced by fluid injection creates the condition to nucleate synchronous aseismic and seismic slip transients.  In this scenario, the spatio-temporal evolution of the induced seismicity is driven by the stressing rate imparted at the leading edges of the aseismic rupture front. However, the relationship between the magnitude of aseismic slip and the hydraulic energy input in the system remains still elusive. A similar mechanism has been proposed for natural earthquake swarms triggered by shallow (5-10 km depth) slow slip events (SSEs), for which a robust power-law scaling has been demonstrated between seismic and aseismic slip. Notably, the power-law moment scaling of shallow SEEs and associated earthquake swarms has been interpreted with a mechanism of fault pressurization enhanced by intense fracturing in a seismogenic volume with abundance of crustal fluids. Similar fault conditions are at play for fluid-induced seismicity. Here, we collected several case studies of recorded induced aseismic deformation during injection experiments together with the accompanying seismic activity. We investigated the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the seismicity with respect to the ongoing transient aseismic slip. We focused in particular on the seismic and aseismic slip budget of induced seismicity and compared it with previous scaling of SSEs. The aseismic and seismic moments of induced events are compatible with the power-law scaling of shallow natural earthquakes swarms triggered by SSEs, although a data gap exits for SSEs in 0-4 magnitude range, where no SSEs have never been recorded due to the low resolution of surface geodetic instrumentation. We performed also numerical simulation using a 3D hydro-mechanical model using realistic fault and hydraulic parameters in order to fill in the data gap. Our results serve as a basis to build up empirical models that incorporate aseismic slip together with injected volume and pressure to forecast seismicity during fluid-injection experiments.

How to cite: Passarelli, L., De Barros, L., Rinaldi, A. P., and Wiemer, S.: Seismic to aseismic slip scaling during fluid injection experiments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5699, 2022.

EGU22-6361 | Presentations | ERE5.1

A 3D ETAS model for forecasting spatio-temporal distribution of induced seismic events 

Hossein Ebrahimian, Fatemeh Jalayer, and Vincenzo Convertito

Methodology:

Induced earthquakes have peculiar characteristics such as, relatively shallow depths, small magnitude, correlation with field operations, non-GR recurrence law, and eventually non-homogenous Poisson recurrence time. Indeed, induced seismicity tends to cluster in limited volumes near the wells where field operations (e.g., fluids injection, extraction, fracking, etc.) are performed. A novel and fully-probabilistic simulation-based procedure is presented for providing temporal and volumetric predictions of induced events’ occurrence in a prescribed forecasting time interval (in the order of hours or days). The procedure aims at exploiting the information provided by the ongoing sequence in quasi-real time (even in the presence of very limited registered data) to adaptively update the seismicity forecasts based on the incoming information as it becomes available. The clustering of seismic events in volume (3D seismicity) and time is modelled based on an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. The proposed 3D ETAS model encompasses a decoupled depth-area volumetric probabilistic kernel that incorporates kernel density functions for areal extent as well as the focal depth. The ETAS parameters are going to be re-calibrated in order to take into account non-GR long-term temporal boundary conditions in case of induced seismicity. Moreover, exact spatial integrals will be used to consider the 3D boundary conditions. The proposed procedure considers the uncertainties in the earthquake occurrence model parameters in a Bayesian updating framework. Pairing up the Bayesian inference and the suitable efficient simulation schemes (using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation) provides the possibility of performing the forecasting procedure with minimum (or no) need of human interference.

Application:

The procedure is demonstrated through retrospective forecasting of induced seismicity recorded at the Geysers geothermal field in northern California in the time period of 2011-2015. Injection of cold water and heavier liquids in the hot reservoir caused induced earthquakes with moment magnitudes in the range of [0.0, 4.0] and depth ranging up to 5 km. The proposed procedure is examined for both Bayesian updating of the proposed 3D ETAS model parameters and forecasting of the number of events of interest expected to occur in various time intervals before and after a number of main events within the seismic sequence. The seismicity is predicted within a confidence interval from the mean estimate. Adding a kernel density for the focal depth and moving towards the 3D seismicity forecasting leads to the forecasted number of events that better match the events that actually took place in the forecasting interval, as compared to the 2D ETAS model. Therefore, it is concluded that the proposed 3D ETAS model is quite effective in case of induced seismicity.

How to cite: Ebrahimian, H., Jalayer, F., and Convertito, V.: A 3D ETAS model for forecasting spatio-temporal distribution of induced seismic events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6361, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6361, 2022.

EGU22-7486 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Magnitude estimates of earthquakes induced by the geothermal stimulations in Espoo/Helsinki, southern Finland: a comparison of different approaches 

Amir Sadeghi-Bagherabadi, Tom Eulenfeld, Tommi A.T. Vuorinen, Annukka E. Rintamäki, and Gregor Hillers

In 2018 and 2020, two weeks-long geothermal reservoir stimulations were performed some 6 km below the Helsinki capital area, Finland. The seismic activity was recorded by a set of surface broadband sensors and 100 geophones installed by the Institute of Seismology, University of Helsinki, as well as Finnish National Seismic Network stations. The local magnitudes (ML) of the recorded earthquakes are estimated using a Finnish local magnitude scale and the local magnitude of the largest induced event was 1.8. We apply three different approaches for estimation of moment magnitudes (MW) to a data base of ~400 induced seismic events from the 2018 stimulation to explore the variability and sensitivity of the magnitude estimates. This is important for real-time monitoring and decision making when the induced event magnitudes approach the pre-defined magnitude limit, and to assess which trends can be robustly associated to earthquake source physics. (1) We employ a time-domain calculation of source parameters based on the application of Parseval's theorem to the integrals of the squared spectral displacement and velocity for the horizontal S-wave trains. The time window between the S-wave arrival time and twice the length of the S-wave travel time is considered for the S-wave train isolation. (2) We obtain moment magnitude estimates from an inversion of 50 s long three-component envelopes based on radiative transfer. (3) We apply a moment tensor inversion to 0.71 s long P and 0.81 s long S-wave signals. We fit a linear ML-MW conversion model to the values obtained from the different approaches. Considering the available local magnitude range between –0.5 and 1.8, a comparison of the linear conversion models shows that the moment magnitudes form the envelope inversion are systematically larger by ~0.2 units compared to those obtained from the moment tensor inversion. While the moment magnitudes determined by the time-domain calculation consistently exceed those of the envelope inversion for small local magnitudes (by ~0.2 units), they tend to yield similar estimates towards the larger local magnitudes. Other source parameter systematics include that the smallest seismic moment is obtained with the moment tensor inversion, and the largest with the time-domain equivalent of the spectral integrals. An initial extension of the analysis to 2020 data yields ML-MW as well as corner frequency-MW scaling relations that are, interestingly, different compared to the 2018 results; we will present updated results that inform about the reliability of these trends.

How to cite: Sadeghi-Bagherabadi, A., Eulenfeld, T., Vuorinen, T. A. T., Rintamäki, A. E., and Hillers, G.: Magnitude estimates of earthquakes induced by the geothermal stimulations in Espoo/Helsinki, southern Finland: a comparison of different approaches, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7486, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7486, 2022.

EGU22-7900 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Seasonal stress inversion trends and Coulomb stress changes of RTS in Song Tranh2 reservoir, Vietnam 

Izabela Nowaczyńska and Grzegorz Lizurek

The Song Tranh 2 hydropower construction is located in the Quang Nam province (central Vietnam), it has a reservoir volume of 740 million cubic meters of water and a dam height of 96 m. The reservoir was filled to capacity for the first time in February 2011. The seismicity in the vicinity of reservoir is example of reservoir triggered seismicity (RTS).  The natural seismic activity of the Song Tranh 2 reservoir is very low. After the reservoir was filled, the seismic activity increased, and the number and frequency of the tremors also changed as the water level changed. Water level changes are accelerating the tectonic process leading the critically stressed faults to slip. Data suggest that reservoir exploitation stress field changes as triggering origin of this seismicity. The stress inversion method was used to check if there were any seasonal trends. The inverted stress tensor and, in particular, the stress ratio, which is very sensitive to data quality and scope and difficult to accurately retrieve, can be influenced by porous pressure changes. Has been checked, how the average annual seismic activity is related to the change of the water level and if it implies the orientation of the principal stress during high and low water levels in the reservoir.  The pore pressure changes and the stress ratio changes were also estimated in relation to the high and low water level periods. Coulomb stress transfer is a seismic-related geological process of stress changes to surrounding material caused by local discrete deformation events.Importantly, Coulomb stress changes have been applied to earthquake-forecasting models that have been used to assess potential hazards related to earthquake activity. It is also often assumed that changes in pore fluid pressure induced by changes in stress are proportional to the normal stress change across the fault plane. Coulomb stress changes was also calculated for low and high water period.

How to cite: Nowaczyńska, I. and Lizurek, G.: Seasonal stress inversion trends and Coulomb stress changes of RTS in Song Tranh2 reservoir, Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7900, 2022.

EGU22-7969 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Source mechanisms of earthquakes induced by the 2018 and 2020 geothermal stimulations in Espoo/Helsinki, southern Finland 

Annukka Rintamäki, Sebastian Heimann, Torsten Dahm, and Gregor Hillers

An experimental ~6 km deep enhanced geothermal system in Otaniemi, in the Helsinki capital region, southern Finland, was stimulated in 2018 and 2020. During the two stimulations that lasted seven and three weeks, respectively, signals of the induced earthquakes with a maximum local magnitude of 1.8 were recorded with dense and diverse seismic networks. The intraplate southern Finland setting of the experiment yields an intriguing opportunity to study earthquake and rock failure processes in the precambrian Fennoscandian Shield where the level of natural seismicity is comparatively low. The high confining pressure of 180 MPa at 6 km depth defines the key characteristics of the stress field, together with the previously estimated North-110-degrees-East direction of the maximum horizontal stress. The competent crystalline bedrock has very low attenuation, and yields high signal-to-noise ratio seismograms even at relatively high frequencies. We study the source mechanisms of ~250 induced earthquakes with Mw > 0.5. We perform probabilistic full moment tensor analysis with the Grond package of the software suite Pyrocko. We use data sets from the 2018 and 2020 stimulation experiments. Both experiments were monitored with more than 100 three-component surface stations operated by the Institute of Seismology, University of Helsinki, and 12 three-component borehole stations maintained by the St1 developer company installed at around 300 m depth. The diverse network elements help to evaluate the consistency of the results. We first present results of a detailed analysis of a small event subset characterized by the best data quality and solutions to assess the robustness of the different tensor components to different processing choices. This includes a comparison of surface and borehole sensor data. This allows us to conclude that the majority of the analysed earthquakes have a dominant reverse faulting mechanism and a small subset of events has strike slip mechanisms, which is compatible with solutions reported by the developer group. The predominant fault plane orientations are in agreement with the ambient stress conditions that also seem to control the thrust mechanism. Based on the best quality solutions we discuss the significance of the obtained non-double couple moment tensor components to assess if significant opening or closing elements in the induced earthquake source reflect genuine physical processes or spurious effects associated with imperfect resolution.

How to cite: Rintamäki, A., Heimann, S., Dahm, T., and Hillers, G.: Source mechanisms of earthquakes induced by the 2018 and 2020 geothermal stimulations in Espoo/Helsinki, southern Finland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7969, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7969, 2022.

EGU22-8224 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Broadband seismic instrumentation for monitoring CCS sites 

Will Reis, Marcella Cilia, Neil Watkiss, Sally Mohr, Rui Barbara, and Phil Hill

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) sites require microseismic monitoring before, during and after operations to ensure safety of operational personnel and the wider public.

The high dynamic range and low self-noise of broadband seismometers allows for the detection of low magnitude microseismic events which fall below the threshold of less sensitive geophones. Higher long-period sensitivity also allows the full source spectra of earthquakes to be accurately measured, resulting in more accurate magnitude estimations which improve the integrity of any microseismic monitoring system.

Borehole instruments such as the Güralp Radian are a natural fit for detecting low magnitude microseismic events. Optional high gain at the higher frequencies makes the Radian extremely suitable for monitoring low-magnitude induced events while retaining long-period sensitivity for larger ruptures. The slim form factor and omni-angle operation allows the instrument to easily be lowered into decommissioned wells with little information about the orientation at depth.

The Radian is currently being utilised by the British Geological Survey as part of the UK GeoEnergy Test Bed (GTB) to monitor and improve understanding of fluid flow through natural subsurface pathways. A string of 6 interconnected Radians provides vertical profiling around the injection site with a maximum of 8 units able to join in a single string. The Radian will detect and monitor small changes in the subsurface at the GTB as part of the suite of monitoring technologies deployed onsite. 

In addition to onshore networks, offshore depleted gas fields are becoming increasingly scrutinised for potential to store CO2. The advent of Güralp omnidirectional sensor technology combined with acoustic near-real-time data transmission means the Aquarius OBS provides a cost-effective solution for monitoring offshore CCS sites, with infrequent and rapid battery recharging and acoustic data extraction while the unit is still on the seafloor.

How to cite: Reis, W., Cilia, M., Watkiss, N., Mohr, S., Barbara, R., and Hill, P.: Broadband seismic instrumentation for monitoring CCS sites, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8224, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8224, 2022.

EGU22-8688 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of the seismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing operations in Preston New Road, UK 

Riccardo Minetto, Agnès Helmstetter, and Ben Edwards

In August 2019 an hydraulic fracturing operation was carried out at the PNR-2 well in Preston New Road, UK. Hydraulic fracturing caused abundant seismic activity that culminated with a ML 2.9 event. This event prompted the operator (Cuadrilla Resources Ltd.) to halt any further stimulation of the well. The seismic activity was recorded by a downhole array of 12 sensors located in a monitoring well (PNR-1z). The operator released a seismic catalog created in real time during the fracturing operation. The catalog consists of 55555 events detected and located with a coalescence microseismic mapping method. The catalog also reports moment magnitudes, but no precise information on the method and on the parameters used to estimate them is available. In our study, we attempt to improve the number of detections and the location accuracy of the events by applying template matching and a double-difference relocation method, respectively. We also recalculate moment magnitudes using spectral fitting to look for any inconsistencies in the real-time catalog. Finally, we use the new information to better understand the spatio-temporal evolution of the seismicity and the dynamics that led to the ML 2.9 event.

How to cite: Minetto, R., Helmstetter, A., and Edwards, B.: Analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of the seismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing operations in Preston New Road, UK, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8688, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8688, 2022.

EGU22-8716 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Numerical investigation of hydraulic stimulation strategies to mitigate post-injection seismicity in Enhanced Geothermal Systems 

Sri Kalyan Tangirala, Francesco Parisio, and Victor Vilarrasa

Enabling a widespread exploitation of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) around the world by tapping into the heat trapped by the radioactive granites demands a better understanding of the fluid-induced seismicity associated with their stimulation. Induced seismicity occurs not only during hydraulic stimulation, but also after shut-in. The induced earthquakes of Mw > 3 at Basel and Mw = 5.5 at Pohang are two well-known examples that have caused a negative public perception on EGS. Here, we numerically compare the effect of bleed-off on the mitigation of post-injection seismicity for three stimulation schemes: constant rate, step rate and cyclic injection. We find that applying bleed-off in the post-injection phase significantly reduces the post-injection induced seismicity when compared to not applying bleed-off in all the injection schemes.

How to cite: Tangirala, S. K., Parisio, F., and Vilarrasa, V.: Numerical investigation of hydraulic stimulation strategies to mitigate post-injection seismicity in Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8716, 2022.

EGU22-9233 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Analysis of the pico-seismic response of a fractured rock volume to fluid injections in the Bedretto Underground Laboratory, Switzerland 

Virginie Durand, Martina Rosskopf, Katrin Plenkers, Anne Obermann, Miriam Schwarz, Linus Villiger, Men-Andrin Meier, Hansruedi Maurer, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer and the Bedretto Team

The Bedretto Underground Laboratory for Geoenergies and Geosciences (BULGG) is a multidisciplinary laboratory on the hundred meter scale run by ETH Zurich. It is located in the Swiss Alps, in the middle of a 5.2km long horizontal tunnel, 1.0km below the surface. 
Seven 250-300m long boreholes have been equipped with different instruments: Acoustic Emission Sensors, Accelerometers, Fiber Optics (allowing simultaneous DTS, DSS and DAS measurements), Strainmeters and Pore Pressure Sensors. The variety of the instrumentation allows a multidisciplinary analysis of the response of the rock volume to fluid injections. The fluid injections are realized through a 400m injection borehole located in the center of the instrument network. It is divided into 14 intervals, allowing us to make injections at different depths.
We will first present the methods used to generate a pico-seismic catalog with precise locations and a magnitude of completeness as low as -5, and the associated challenges. Then, we show a preliminary analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of the pico-seismicity generated by different injection protocols. We interpret the evolution of the seismicity in comparison with the injection parameters (i.e., injection pressure and rate) and the stimulated intervals.

How to cite: Durand, V., Rosskopf, M., Plenkers, K., Obermann, A., Schwarz, M., Villiger, L., Meier, M.-A., Maurer, H., Giardini, D., and Wiemer, S. and the Bedretto Team: Analysis of the pico-seismic response of a fractured rock volume to fluid injections in the Bedretto Underground Laboratory, Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9233, 2022.

EGU22-9373 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Variation in induced seismicity productivity by alteration of injection parameters: a comparative case study at three hydraulic fracturing wells in the Kiskatinaw area, British Columbia, Canada 

Marco Pascal Roth, Kilian B Kemna, Alessandro Verdecchia, Ricarda M Wache, Andres F Pena Castro, Rebecca M Harrington, and Yajing Liu

The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) has experienced an increase in hydraulic fracturing (HF) operations in the last decade, accompanied by an increase in the number of felt earthquakes, including a Mw 4.6 on 17 August 2015 near Fort St. John and a ML 4.5 (Mw 4.2) on 30 November 2018 near Dawson Creek. While only a small percentage of HF operations induce seismicity, the majority of moderate-sized earthquakes occur in close spatial proximity to HF wells and temporal proximity to individual HF injection stages within the tight shale play of the Montney Formation. Whereas statistical analysis of an enhanced seismicity catalog suggests that the majority of seismicity occurs following HF operations in the relatively older and deeper compartments of the Montney Formation (Lower Montney; LM) and a low number of events are associated with the relatively younger and shallower layers (Upper Montney; UM), the detailed association and triggering mechanism(s) remains unclear.

In this study, we investigate induced earthquake source parameter variations resulting from spatial and/or temporal alteration of injection parameters, including injection time, depth, and volume, at three well pads operating between 2018 and 2020 in the Kiskatinaw area. We use dense local station coverage to create an enhanced seismicity catalog with double-difference relative hypocenter relocations to highlight potential fault orientations, confirmed by focal mechanism solutions. We estimate static stress drop values at the individual well pads and their variation over time as well as variation with the choice of empirical Greens function. We also investigate the temporal changes of the VP/VS-ratio in localized areas following HF operations as a proxy for increased fracture density and/or compliance.

The case study at three specific sites targeting both the UM and LM layers investigates the relative influence of a number of factors on the spatial and temporal distribution of source properties. Factors include the scale of HF injection parameters, the target formation layer, and site-specific factors, such as localized fluid accumulation. Preliminary results show that injection in the UM generally leads to significantly fewer earthquakes than injection in the LM, and that lateral variations in compartment properties may significantly influence the seismic response. Moreover, we investigate if repetitive injection at the same wellhead may repeatedly (re)activate sets of faults/fractures and lead to increased hydraulic connectivity between the target sedimentary layers and deeper, pre-existing basement faults. An increase in connectivity would imply an increased potential for triggering large mainshocks.

How to cite: Roth, M. P., Kemna, K. B., Verdecchia, A., Wache, R. M., Pena Castro, A. F., Harrington, R. M., and Liu, Y.: Variation in induced seismicity productivity by alteration of injection parameters: a comparative case study at three hydraulic fracturing wells in the Kiskatinaw area, British Columbia, Canada, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9373, 2022.

EGU22-9575 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Reservoir triggered seismicity in tectonically stable and seismically active areas of Vietnam 

Grzegorz Lizurek, Konstantinos Leptokaropoulos, Monika Staszek, Izabela Nowaczyńska, and Anna Tymińska

Water reservoirs play important role in energy production in Vietnam. Numerous dams were designed and built for hydropower plants and water storage during the wet season and its release during dry season. They were built in a different tectonic settings. We present our experience of several years of monitoring and research on two sites: first, tectonic active area of Lai Chau (North Vietnam) and relatively stable area of Song Tranh in Central Vietnam. We observed different seismicity patterns in this areas. Area of active tectonics in Lai Chau was less active in terms of reservoir triggering, while almost aseismic area of Song Tranh was highly active after reservoir impoundment. We proved, that this activity was related with seasonal water level changes in reservoir. Moreover, low water period during service works was proved to be more active and with significantly higher seismic hazard than during initial production regime and after the refilling. It suggests that decrease of water level and following pore-pressure change destabilize minor faults being closer to failure, than main faults in the area. We also found multiplet events triggered on minor normal faults in shallow depth despite the strike-slip regime of regional tectonic stress field. On the other hand in the active area of Lai Chau we observed triggering both on existing active strike-slip faults and minor normal fault discontinuities. However, the difference between seismic activity parameters before and after impoundment except spatial distribution directly after first filling didn’t differ substantially. We can conclude, that in stable tectonic setting triggering effect is clear and related with pore-pressure changes caused by reservoir water level fluctuations, which is main seismogenic factor. On the other hand in active seismic area reservoir water level fluctuation seems to be too small to significantly influence seismic activity in the long term.

This work was partially supported by the research project no. 2017/27/B/ST10/01267, funded by the National Science Centre, Poland under the agreement no. UMO-2017/27/B/ST10/01267 (GL and IN) and partially supported by the research project no. 2021/41/B/ST10/02618, funded by the National Science Centre, Poland under the agreement no. UMO-2021/41/B/ST10/02618 (GL and AT) and partially by National Statutory Activity of the Ministry of Education and Science of Poland No 3841/E-41/S/2022 (MS)

How to cite: Lizurek, G., Leptokaropoulos, K., Staszek, M., Nowaczyńska, I., and Tymińska, A.: Reservoir triggered seismicity in tectonically stable and seismically active areas of Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9575, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9575, 2022.

EGU22-9826 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Structurally controlled regional groundwater circulation: Origin of geothermal springs in Sri Lanka 

Dilshan Bandara, Thomas Heinze, Jeroen Smit, and Stefan Wohnlich

In the context of switching power generation towards renewable energy sources, the geothermal exploration of low enthalpy systems has gained interest also in regions with little to no recent tectonic or magmatic activity such as Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka has 9 low enthalpy systems with yet unknown heat generating mechanisms besides several existing hypotheses. Recent studies of such kind of low enthalpy geothermal systems hypothesize that fault network and recharge elevations are the main factors controlling the origin of the hot springs.

We studied the fault network, shear zones, and regional fracture networks to understand the heat flow causing the Sri Lankan hot springs. Remote sensing and geophysical methods were used to identify and analyze lineaments. We find that (1) The peak circulating temperatures of deeply circulating meteoric water depend on the elevation of the recharge zone for the corresponding hot spring. (2) Hot springs are formed in a terrain with a long fault / shear zone (starting from the highlands) when cross cuts with a regional fracture network occur in or near to the hot spring fields. (3) Highest number of hot springs in the country relates with the fault network that crosses the Mahaweli shear zone at the boundary of the two geological complexes Highland and Vijayan.

We conclude that the fault network that crosses both the central highlands and the Vijayan Complex plays a major role in the heating of deep percolating water, as it transports the water over more than hundred kilometers distance from the recharge zones to the hot springs. 

How to cite: Bandara, D., Heinze, T., Smit, J., and Wohnlich, S.: Structurally controlled regional groundwater circulation: Origin of geothermal springs in Sri Lanka, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9826, 2022.

EGU22-9880 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Numerical modelling of fluid-induced fault slip reactivation,application to Geo-Energy systems 

Jinlin Jiang, Pierre Dublanchet, Franҫois Passelègue, Dominique Bruel, and Frederic Pellet

Geothermal energy is one of the most promising techniques to exploit renewable energy resources from the Earth and to limit emissions of greenhouse gas. Deep geothermal exploitations are associated with long term fluid circulation and pressure perturbations at great depth, in fractured and faulted zones and are likely associated with a risk of triggering earthquakes. Such earthquakes are usually interpreted as the reactivation of rapid (m/s) shear slip on critically stressed faults caused by fluid flow and poroelastic stress changes. In some cases however, slow aseismic slip (m/d) can take place on faults in response to fluid flow. How fluid pressure perturbations reactivate aseimic or rapid slip still remains poorly understood. A better understanding of the hydromechanical processes controlling fault slip is therefore crucial to mitigate seismic hazards associated with geothermal exploitation.

In this framework, our study aims at constraining the influence of stress state, fluid injection rate, diffusivity and frictional failure criterion on the reactivation of slip on pre-existing faults through mechanical modelling of a set of laboratory experiments. The experiments consist of a fluid injection into a saw-cut rock sample loaded in a triaxial cell. Fault reactivation is triggered by injecting fluids through a borehole directly connected to the fault. This experimental setup is modelled by a 3D Finite Element Method (FEM) coupled with a solver of the fluid diffusion. The sample fault is modelled as a contact surface obeying slip-weakening Mohr-Coulomb friction law. This approach allows to compute slip and stress evolutions, as observed during the laboratory experiment. The FEM model is calibrated and is able to reproduce the experimental results. We show that fluid injection triggers a shear crack that propagates varying from 1 to 300 m/d along the fault. This approach can be used to investigate the relationship between fluid front and slip front during reactivation, which is an important issue to control the effects of fluid injections at depth.

How to cite: Jiang, J., Dublanchet, P., Passelègue, F., Bruel, D., and Pellet, F.: Numerical modelling of fluid-induced fault slip reactivation,application to Geo-Energy systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9880, 2022.

EGU22-10043 | Presentations | ERE5.1

The dynamic Coulomb stress changes caused by remoteearthquakes based on the borehole strainmeter data 

Fuzhen Li, TianXiang Ren, ShunLiang Chi, Huai Zhang, and YaoLin Shi

Sufficient shreds of evidence have proved the existence of the remote triggering effect of large earthquakes. To understand its mechanism, it is necessary to conduct detailed investigations on the influence of the far-field dynamic stress changes on the stress state of faults. As an important tool of ultra-broadband crustal stress monitoring, a four-component borehole strainmeter can directly record the dynamic changes of horizontal strain and stress caused by seismic waves. These data are of great importance to study the dynamic Coulomb stress changes and related triggering effects, but have not been paid sufficient attention to so far. This paper analyzes the data of the four-component borehole strainmeter at Gaotai and Tonghua stations, which recorded the far-field strain changes of four major earthquake events in the Pacific region in 2018. We successfully identify the seismic phases of P, S, and surface waves, and analyze the characteristics of different phases through the stress petal method. The dynamic stress changes are calculated, demonstrating the feasibility of using borehole strainmeter data to quantitatively study the triggering effect of teleseismic waves of earthquakes with different magnitudes at different epicentral distances. We find that the direction of the principal stress axis of the dynamic stress changes is generally consistent with the azimuth of the earthquake epicenter. We further discuss the Coulomb stress changes on the major faults near the stations. According to the results, the peak values of the dynamic Coulomb stress changes produced by four earthquakes on the fault planes near Gaotai and Tonghua stations are at the magnitude of hundreds of Pa, which are lower than the threshold value of dynamic triggering. This is also consistent with the observation that no dynamically triggered earthquakes are found on the faults. However, the idea and method of this paper provide useful insight into the detection of possible dynamic triggering of large earthquakes.

How to cite: Li, F., Ren, T., Chi, S., Zhang, H., and Shi, Y.: The dynamic Coulomb stress changes caused by remoteearthquakes based on the borehole strainmeter data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10043, 2022.

EGU22-10183 | Presentations | ERE5.1

The variability of seismo-acoustic nuisance patterns: a case study from the Helsinki geothermal stimulation 

Lukas Krenz, Sebastian Wolf, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Gregor Hillers, and Michael Bader

With this contribution, we expand the discussion of effects that earthquakes induced by geo-energy projects can have on local communities, and that should probably be considered in future legislation or permitting processes. Inspired by consistent reports of felt and heard disturbances associated with the weeks-long stimulation of a 6-km-deep geothermal system in 2018 below the Otaniemi district of Espoo, Helsinki, we conduct numerical simulations of wave propagation in the solid earth and the atmosphere to assess the sensitivity of the ground shaking and audible noise patterns to various parameters. We explore the effects of three different local velocity models, realistic topography, variations of the source mechanism, and earthquake size on the loudness of the synthetic waves at frequencies up to 20 Hz, therefore reaching the lower limit of human sound sensitivity. We discuss the results of 18 elastic-acoustic coupled scenario simulations conducted on the Mahti high-performance computing infrastructure of the Finnish IT Center for Science CSC using the SeisSol wavefield solver. The computationally challenging simulations target the Otaniemi case study, i.e., we discretize a 12 km x 12 km x 15 km domain with a 2 km thick air layer over the solid earth domain. The earthquake point source is located at the 6.5 km deep location of the largest M1.8 event induced by the stimulation. In the target central area, we use a mesh with element lengths of about 14 m in the air and 97 m in the solid earth. Inside each element, we approximate the solution by a fifth-degree polynomial, by which we achieve a resolution of roughly 2.3 m in the air and 16 m in the earth. We develop an interactive visualization to facilitate instant access to the results governed by the different parameter combinations, where the synthetics are shown on top of a map of the Helsinki metropolitan region. This tool facilitates “what-if” analyses by quickly comparing the effects of fault orientation, source mechanism, and the velocity model. This supports effective communication of physics-based nuisance analysis to decision-makers and stakeholders, not only in environments such as the case study where there is little experience with natural earthquake phenomena. Together, these results resolve for the first time synthetic nuisance sound patterns at the 50 – 100 m scale in a densely populated capital region. The study highlights the mostly disregarded spatially variable audible effects that can negatively impact the public attitude towards geothermal stimulations, even if the ground shaking limits are safe, and it provides first estimates of the resources needed for comprehensive scenarios for future stimulation projects.

How to cite: Krenz, L., Wolf, S., Gabriel, A.-A., Hillers, G., and Bader, M.: The variability of seismo-acoustic nuisance patterns: a case study from the Helsinki geothermal stimulation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10183, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10183, 2022.

EGU22-10392 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Modelling injection induced seismicity in the Hengill geothermal field 

Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Vanille Ritz, Shyam Nandan, Raymi Castilla, Dimitrios Karvounis, and Stefan Wiemer

The Hellisheiði Geothermal Field is situated in Southwest Iceland and composes the Southern part of the Hengill Volcanic System. This area is characterized by a complex triple junction between three tectonic features: the Reykanes Peninsula rifting, South Iceland Volcanic Zone and West Volcanic  Zone. Reinjection of spent geothermal fluids is distributed mostly in two areas (Gráuhnúkar and Húsmúli), comprising respectively 6 and 5 active injection wells. The Húsmúli reinjection area, commissioned in September 2011 and has seen significant seismicity associated with drilling and injection operations.
In the framework of the Geothermica project COSEISMIQ (http://www.coseismiq.ethz.ch/en/home/), a dense temporary network was installed to monitor the seismicity in the Hengill region between December 2018 and August 2021. With this enhanced network, novel analysis and relocation techniques, a high resolution relocated catalogue was curated and comprises over 3600 events in the Húsmúli area.
We use numerical models, some purely statistical (ETAS and Seismogenic index) and a hybrid model (TOUGH2-Seed) to reproduce observed seismicity in the Húsmúli reinjection area during the COSEISMIQ project. We employ a pseudo-forecasting approach and compare models performances
and fit to the recorded data.

How to cite: Rinaldi, A. P., Ritz, V., Nandan, S., Castilla, R., Karvounis, D., and Wiemer, S.: Modelling injection induced seismicity in the Hengill geothermal field, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10392, 2022.

Heightened seismic activity due to human activities, such as wastewater injection, carbon storage and geothermal energy production, has been a rising problem in recent years. Various injection parameters and geological conditions have been shown to affect fault behaviour differently when fluid is injected on the faults, although existing observational studies about their effects often show contradictory results. Aseismic slip is also known to affect seismicity, but its exact contribution remains elusive.

To address these, we perform numerical modelling to study the effects of various injection parameters on fault slip behaviour. Our fully dynamic fault model is governed by the rate-and-state friction laws and spontaneously resolves all stages of an earthquake cycle and long-term fault slip. Our results show several interesting observations on the role of injection volume and rate: First, the injected volume can advance or delay the next earthquake if no earthquakes are directly triggered during perturbation. Second, if earthquakes are triggered, the number of triggered earthquakes is controlled by the rate at which fluid is injected, while the timings of the triggered earthquakes are controlled by the injected volume. Large triggered earthquakes are usually preceded by smaller precursors. Third, the pore-pressure threshold at which earthquakes are triggered changes depending on the injection parameters. In most cases, it increases with the volume of injected fluid, but in some cases when the injection is slow, it can also depend on the rate of injection. The change with respect to injection rate is not a smooth positive trend, however, as increasing the rate causes aseismic transients to grow stronger and transition into seismic events, thus advancing the triggering time and causing decrease in the threshold pore pressure in the process. Overall, the effects of perturbation do not end as soon as injection stops. Instead, heightened aseismic activities, as well as oscillating earthquake timings and magnitudes occur for multiple seismic cycles after the end of pore-pressure perturbation. We also see large variations in aseismic moment release under different perturbation scenarios and its intricate relationship with the resulted seismicity pattern, which confirms the vital role of aseismic slip in earthquake triggering. Similar to previous studies, we find that energy on the fault is primarily released aseismically.

Our results thus far are based on spatially uniform pore-pressure evolution, and we are currently developing models that resemble environments with temporally and spatially heterogeneous pore pressure by coupling the temporal evolution of pore pressure with spatial diffusion. We are also incorporating geologic information of the crustal medium, which will be more fitting for modelling realistic scenarios such as the injection-induced earthquakes in Oklahoma.  

How to cite: Mandal, R. and Lui, S.: Quantifying the effects of injection parameters on fault response under spatially homogenous and heterogenous pore-fluid conditions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10601, 2022.

Seismicity in western Romania is the result of tectonic processes that continuously shaped the landscape generating a fractured crust, which showed significant movements as a result of overall tectonic stress in the area as well as secondary effects such as erosion or lateral density fluctuations. At the same time, this region has an important natural resource, being identified here various deposits that have been intensively explored lately. The exploitation of these resources, as well as the development of the infrastructure in the region, led to the generation of anthropogenic seismic events. Due to the recent improvement of the Romanian Seismic Network, the coverage with seismic stations increased and these events were detected and located as natural tectonic events, contaminating the Romanian earthquakes (ROMPLUS) catalog.

To eliminate anthropogenic event contamination in the ROMPLUS catalog, we ran a complex statistical approach on the catalog data. In addition, to build a robust discriminant, we further applied cross-correlation and spectral analysis algorithms on the seismic waveforms recorded between 2014 and 2021 by the Surduc (SURR) and Gura Zlata (GZR) stations, which are located in the proximity of the major clusters of seismic events.

Our results showed a good distinction between tectonic and anthropogenic events and revealed that most of the clustered events are located near the explorations sites. We also noted that most of the events occurred during working hours. At the same time, the high similarity among these events indicates the existence of repetitive seismic sources.

How to cite: Varzaru, L.-C. and Borleanu, F.: Identifying anthropogenic seismic events generated in western Romania using statistical approaches and novel waveform processing techniques, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10911, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10911, 2022.

EGU22-11183 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Detailing the relationship between hydraulic fracturing parameters and induced seismicity using small-magnitude earthquakes 

Rebecca M. Harrington, Kilian B. Kemna, Marco P. Roth, Ricarda M. Wache, and Yajing Liu

The extensive development over the last decade of low-permeability tight shale formations in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) using hydraulic fracturing (HF) techniques for oil and gas exploration has been associated with  an increasing number of M3+ earthquakes (e.g., ML 4.5 on 30 November 2018 near Dawson Creek, and a Mw 4.6 on 17 August 2016 near Fort St. John). Avoiding economic losses due to operational shutdowns and mitigating damage caused by ground shaking requires developing quantitative relationships between operational parameters and the rate of fault activation in areas of low historical seismicity rates such as the WCSB.

Here we present the first results of a detailed study of the relationship between earthquake occurrence and operational parameters using dense seismic array and the British Columbia Oil and Gas Commission operational database to quantitatively assess the relative influence of operational parameters and geological conditions on earthquake generation. We first enhance a local, automatically generated seismic catalog of > 8000 events in the Kiskatinaw (Montney Formation) in the time period between July 2017 -  December 2020 area using a multi-station matched-filter approach.  We then use a machine learning picker as an independent detection algorithm for the same time period and retain events with the best initial locations detected by both the matched-filter and machine-learning approaches. The combined approach leads to  > 30,000 additional earthquakes, which we relocate using a double-difference technique, lowering the magnitude of completeness Mc from ~1.3 to ~0.2.

As shown by several previous studies, while most earthquakes show a clear spatio-temporal correlation with HF operations, the majority of HF operations are not associated with felt earthquakes (e.g., M3+). To investigate the correlation between individual HF stage stimulation and earthquake occurrence, we correlate operational and geological characteristics with > 13000 HF stages. Geological data consists of the target formation for injection, which consists of either the Lower or Upper Montney Formations for the majority of stages. We then use a gradient-boosted decision tree machine learning algorithm combined with an approach to explain the model predictions to assess whether a specific stage is seismogenic. The decision-tree-algorithm allows us to estimate the importance of each injection parameter for the generation of seismicity. First results show that the target formation is the most influential parameter, where the Lower Montney Formation is more prone to higher rates of seismicity. In addition, the total pumped fluid volume and the maximum treating pressure are the important injection parameters that are positively correlated with seismicity. In contrast, the average injection rate and breakdown pressure may be relatively less influencial. We will present the results for specific stages and discuss the importance of their injection parameters in relation to seismicity. Our results could help to determine why only some HF wells are seismogenic.

How to cite: Harrington, R. M., Kemna, K. B., Roth, M. P., Wache, R. M., and Liu, Y.: Detailing the relationship between hydraulic fracturing parameters and induced seismicity using small-magnitude earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11183, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11183, 2022.

EGU22-11535 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Development of slow slip front during the nucleation of laboratory fluid-induced earthquakes 

Francois Passelegue and Pierre Dublanchet

Fluid injections are known to induce earthquakes in the upper crust. Recent studies have highlighted that fluid injections can contribute to the nucleation of instabilities close to or far from the injection site due to stress transfer induced by poroelastic processes. In addition, recent studies have suggested the maximum magnitude earthquake is expected to be a function of the volume injected. However, the development of the slip front related to the fluid pressure front, as well as its implications on the induced seismic sequence in time and space, remain poorly constrained in the laboratory and in natural fault systems.

Here, we investigated the influence of the initial normal stress (i.e., the permeability of the fault plane) and of the injection rate on the development of both the fluid pressure front and associated slip front during the nucleation stage of laboratory fluid-induced earthquakes. Experiments were conducted on saw cut samples of andesite, presenting a negligible bulk permeability compared to the fault plane one. Strain gauges were glued all around the fault surface to track, (i) the strain transfer associated with slip front propagation during injection and the rupture velocity during dynamic rupture propagation. The dynamics of the fluid pressure front was inverted from pore pressure measurements located at both edges of the fault. The evolution of the slip distribution due to the change in fluid pressure around the injection site was inverted from strain gauge measurements, assuming a 3D modelling of the sample specimen using the Finite Element Method. Our preliminary results show that the initial stress acting on the fault controls the development of the slip front during the nucleation of the instability. In addition, the larger the injection rate, and the faster the propagation of the slip front compared to the fluid pressure front. Finally, the scaling between the volume of fluid injected and the associated nucleation moment differs from the one relating the volume injected to the seismic moment.

 

How to cite: Passelegue, F. and Dublanchet, P.: Development of slow slip front during the nucleation of laboratory fluid-induced earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11535, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11535, 2022.

EGU22-11538 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Triggering mechanisms of the induced seismicity at the Underground Gas Storage of Castor, Spain 

Victor Vilarrasa, Silvia De Simone, Jesus Carrera, and Antonio Villaseñor

Cushion gas injection at the Underground Gas Storage (UGS) project of Castor, Spain, induced hundreds of events, including thirteen with magnitude higher than 3.5 that were felt by the local population and led to project cancellation. The sequence of felt events comprises the three largest earthquakes (M4.08, M4.01 and M3.97) ever induced by any of the more than 640 UGS facilities around the world. The largest earthquakes occurred 20 days after shut-in, when pore pressure buildup had already dissipated. The induced earthquakes nucleated at depths ranging from 4 to 10 km, significantly deeper than the storage formation, which is located at 1.7 km depth. These features of the induced seismicity disregard pore pressure buildup as the triggering mechanism. Our analyses show that seismicity was induced by gas injection, which reactivated the critically stressed Amposta fault. The Amposta fault, which bounds the storage formation, is a mature fault with very low permeability as a result of clay accumulation into its core resulting from its 1,000-m offset. Pore pressure buildup, but specially buoyancy of the gas, which continued to act after shut-in, destabilized the Amposta fault aseismically. The accumulation of aseismic slip caused stress transfer, destabilizing a deep critically stressed fault. Subsequently, shear slip stress transfer combined with slip-driven pore pressure changes, induced the sequence of felt earthquakes. We conclude that the induced earthquakes at Castor could have been avoided because fault stability analysis reveals the high risk of inducing seismicity.

 

Reference

Vilarrasa, V., De Simone, S., Carrera, J. and Villaseñor, A., 2021. Unravelling the causes of the seismicity induced by underground gas storage at Castor, Spain. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL092038

How to cite: Vilarrasa, V., De Simone, S., Carrera, J., and Villaseñor, A.: Triggering mechanisms of the induced seismicity at the Underground Gas Storage of Castor, Spain, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11538, 2022.

EGU22-12474 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Impact of fracture length distribution on the injection-induced seismicity in fractured rocks 

Mohammad Javad Afshari Moein and Qinghua lei

Induced seismicity is a major challenge for fluid injection operations performed by geo-energy industry to exploit the underground resources. Despite recent developments in the understanding of induced earthquakes, many high-pressure fluid injection operations can still trigger unexpectedly large-magnitude events. A physical understanding of geological parameters controlling the induced seismicity is of central importance for improving our ability to forecast and mitigate the risk of inducing large earthquakes. Current physics-based numerical models are typically based on some simplifications that disregard the multiphysical interactions among fractures and faults. Therefore, the physical linkage between geometrical attributes of the fracture system and the statistics of induced seismicity is poorly understood. The final objective of this research is to determine the impact of fracture network properties on the spatiotemporal evolution of injection-induced seismicity and the emergence of large earthquake events.  

Here, we numerically capture the occurrence of seismic and aseismic slips in fracture systems, represented as discrete fracture networks (DFNs), spanning over two orders of magnitude over the length scale (1-100 m). Then, a 2D finite element model is used to simulate the coupled hydraulic and mechanical processes during fluid injection and analyze the occurrence of earthquakes. We present some preliminary results of our numerical simulations based on synthetic fracture network realizations. We particularly focus on power-law exponent of fracture length distribution and analyze the potential controls on the magnitude frequency of induced seismic events. The results of the analysis could have significant implications injection-related activities such as enhanced geothermal systems.

How to cite: Afshari Moein, M. J. and lei, Q.: Impact of fracture length distribution on the injection-induced seismicity in fractured rocks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12474, 2022.

EGU22-12568 | Presentations | ERE5.1

Performance comparison of induced seismicity forecasting models with existing datasets 

Victor Clasen Repolles, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Federico Ciardo, and Luigi Passarelli

Within the workflow of Adaptive Traffic Light System, it is important to evaluate the performance of different induced seismicity forecasting models in order to properly weight the forecasts during seismic hazard calculation. In this respect, we propose a standardize test bench approach capable of comparing outputs’ models (in terms of seismicity rate) and their uncertainties in real time. We test this approach using different models that are trained using existing datasets from geothermal exploration campaigns. Notably, we use two statistical models that link injection volumetric rate to seismicity rate with the difference that a Bayesian approach (EM1_BH) additionally adds epistemic uncertainty to the aleatoric uncertainty introduced in a purely frequentist approach (EM1_MLE), one pressure-based seismicity model (HM0_CAPS) based on 1D analytical solution for linear pore-fluid diffusion and finally one hybrid 1D model that includes a physic-based module for linear and non-linear pore-fluid diffusion linked to a stochastic model for seismicity generation using a seed approach (HM0_SEED and HM1_SEED). By using these different models and their uncertainties in our numerical investigations, we show the robustness of the proposed testbench approach.

How to cite: Clasen Repolles, V., Rinaldi, A. P., Ciardo, F., and Passarelli, L.: Performance comparison of induced seismicity forecasting models with existing datasets, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12568, 2022.

EGU22-276 | Presentations | SM6.4 | Highlight

Application of Template Matching to OBS array observation in Orca Volcano (Bransfield Strait, Antarctica) 

Helena Seivane, Rosa Martín, Javier Almendros, William Wilcock, and Dax Soule

The temporary seismic network deployed from January 2019 to February 2020 in the Bransfield Strait as part of the BRAVOSEIS project has enabled the development of an earthquake catalogue for Orca submarine volcano. A STA/LTA algorithm, manual picking, and the HYPO71 location algorithm with a 1-D model based on previous studies was used to create a catalogue of 4988 earthquakes. The seismicity was characterized by low magnitude events (-1<ML<2.7) occurring mainly in the upper five-kilometers around Orca caldera. Declustering using the Gardner and Knopoff method, reduced the catalogue size by nearly 90%. The declustered catalogue is complete above a magnitude ML of 0.9 and the estimated b-value for the whole period studied is 1.03 +/- 0.18. Because of the noisy the oceanic environments, building the catalogue became an arduous task to perform manually even with a STA/LTA algorithm. Having catalogued such a numerous microseismic events and with the goal of enhancing the catalogue, we apply a super-efficient cross-correlation (SEC-C) method on the continuous network dataset. The effectiveness of SEC-C is soon corroborated by analysing the output of this template matching-based detector. A volcano-tectonic swarm previously catalogued manually between July and August 2019 is clearly identified by the preliminary results of the SEC-C method. The thresholds we imposed for the cross-correlation values and signal-to-noise ratios considered for the workflow from event detection to location were chosen to make the method as ‘blind’ as possible. More than six hundred events have been incorporated after the template matching procedure, considerably augmenting the catalogue.

How to cite: Seivane, H., Martín, R., Almendros, J., Wilcock, W., and Soule, D.: Application of Template Matching to OBS array observation in Orca Volcano (Bransfield Strait, Antarctica), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-276, 2022.

EGU22-9225 | Presentations | SM6.4 | Highlight

Temporal variations in fast shear-wave polarisation direction observed during and after the 2011-2012 El Hierro eruption from local shear-wave splitting 

David Schlaphorst, Graça Silveira, Ricardo S. Ramalho, Pablo J. González, and Resurrección Antón

The Canary Islands, in the eastern North Atlantic, result from volcanism that is thought to be driven by an underlying mantle upwelling. Due to the movement of islands relative to the hotspot, these get progressively younger from east to west, with La Palma and El Hierro, situated in the north- and south-west of the archipelago being the most recent ones. In addition, those islands have experienced the most recent volcanism in the area (El Hierro: 2011/2012; La Palma: 2021), which was accompanied by large clusters of local seismicity. In the years since the eruption, further seismic clusters could be detected on El Hierro. A better understanding of crustal stress changes can help to monitor ongoing subsurface processes associated with future volcanism.

In this study we present a detailed investigation of crustal seismic anisotropy using shear-wave splitting of local events to estimate splitting parameters and investigate features such as crustal structure or stress due to aligned cracks. The study of anisotropy through shear-wave splitting is a commonly used method to observe dynamic subsurface processes and their influence on the regional stress field. The abundance of data over the last decade allows for a detailed study of temporal variation. Accordingly, using 5 broadband three-component seismic island stations of the IGN network (Instituto Geográfico Nacional) we were able to collect over 200 high quality measurements from 2010 to 2019, the majority of which correspond to syn-eruptive events. Still, nearly half of the events were recorded after 2012, revealing ongoing dynamic crustal processes.

Over the decade, results derived from event clusters show variation of distinct locations around the island. Whereas before and during the eruption results were focused on the northern part of the island, newer clusters were observed on- and offshore to the south of the island. Furthermore, we observe significantly varying fast shear-wave polarisation direction, which in a volcanic environment can be attributed to stress changes due to magma influx as it alters local stress in the crust, or a fabric induced by the lateral intrusion of sills at crustal level and/or beneath the island edifice.

This is a contribution to project SIGHT (SeIsmic and Geochemical constraints on the Madeira HoTspot; Ref. PTDC/CTA-GEF/30264/2017). The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support FCT through project UIDB/50019/2020 – IDL.

How to cite: Schlaphorst, D., Silveira, G., Ramalho, R. S., González, P. J., and Antón, R.: Temporal variations in fast shear-wave polarisation direction observed during and after the 2011-2012 El Hierro eruption from local shear-wave splitting, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9225, 2022.

EGU22-9335 | Presentations | SM6.4

Ground motion and unrest triggering on volcanoes 

Eleanor Dunn, Chris Bean, and Andy Bell

Dynamic stress perturbations have triggered earthquakes thousands of kilometres away from the source. This process, known as dynamic triggering, occurs due to dynamic excitation from both local and regional earthquakes which trigger volcanic seismicity and can yield additional information about both the pre-eruptive state of volcanic systems and about material behaviour. Earthquakes are more likely to be triggered on faults already close to failure so dynamic triggering also offers a means to investigate the stress state of the subsurface. However, the mechanisms underpinning dynamic triggering remain enigmatic. Current understanding is confined to statistical studies of the response to many triggered earthquakes in many different crustal volumes with seismicity rates being used as a proxy for the state of stress. Generally, the background stress state does not change significantly during the window of seismic observation. This makes it difficult to study the same seismically active region over an extended period at different stress states. Volcanoes are ideal natural laboratories for studying the factors that influence dynamic triggering as they experience rapid, high-amplitude changes in stress due to magma accumulation and withdrawal. 
 One such example is Sierra Negra, Galápagos Islands, and utilising the current understanding of dynamic triggering observed prior to the 2018 eruption, Sierra Negra, this project aims to resolve some unanswered questions. These include: 1) What new evidence of dynamic triggering is there at Sierra Negra, post-2018 eruption? 2) Is there a critical stress which is reached when Sierra Negra is being reinflated, post-eruption, which leads to subsequent triggering? 3) Are there non-linear wave effects at work? 4) Is there the possibility to compare Sierra Negra to a volcano which may also be demonstrating signs of dynamic triggering e.g., Hekla, Iceland? A collection of seismic data from locations such as Sierra Negra and Hekla will be supported by numerical simulations of dynamic excitation. This project aims to better understand the role that the interplay between ground motion and the properties of a volcanic edifice play in a volcano’s pathway to eruption. This project is part of the Seismological Parameters and INstrumentation Innovative Training Network (SPIN-ITN) funded by the European Commission. The overarching goal of SPIN is to advance seismic observation, theory, and hazard assessment. SPIN is divided into 4 work packages (WP) with each WP consisting of 3-4 PhD projects, hosted at different beneficiary institutes. The majority of the SPIN projects began in September-October 2021.  

How to cite: Dunn, E., Bean, C., and Bell, A.: Ground motion and unrest triggering on volcanoes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9335, 2022.

EGU22-10076 | Presentations | SM6.4

3D Imaging of the crust and uppermost mantle of the Northeast Atlantic, from Madeira and Canaries to the Atlas-Gibraltar zone 

Graça Silveira, Joana Carvalho, Sergey Kiselev, Eleonore Stutzmann, and Martin Schimmel

Madeira and Canaries are two intraplate hotspots located in the Northeast Atlantic, west of the Moroccan coast.  Within project SIGHT (SeIsmic and Geochemical constraints on the Madeira HoTspot system) we propose to answer the following questions: a) Is Madeira´s volcanism fed by a deep-seated mantle plume? b) Do the Madeira and Canary hotspots have a common or distinct origin? and c) What is the lithospheric nature of the corridor between the Canaries and the Atlas-Gibraltar?

The recent work of Civiero et al. (2021), combining results from seismic tomography, shear-wave splitting and gravity along with plate reconstruction, revealed that differently evolved upwellings might exist below the volcanic Canary and Madeira islands, with the Madeira hotspot possibly fed by a later-stage plumelet. However, a clear picture of the crust and uppermost mantle is still missing, and questions about how thick the crust is and the eventual presence of crustal underplating still need to be answered. 

We performed an ambient noise tomography using data from 50 seismic stations that we selected carefully to obtain the best inter-station path coverage. We processed the data in the period band between 10 to 50 sec, which will allow us to get, for the first time, a crustal and uppermost mantle tomographic model for the study region. The daily traces were cross-correlated using the phase cross-correlation technique, followed by a time-frequency weighted stack methodology developed by Schimmel et al. (2011). After computing the Rayleigh-wave group-velocity measurements, we inverted them to obtain the 2D group-velocity maps for different periods. In the period band of 10 to
20 s, the velocity maps evince low velocities beneath Madeira and Canary Islands and the Gulf of Cadiz region. Higher velocities characterize the remaining oceanic area. When the period increases (36 s) , some of the Canary Islands show slightly higher velocities, whereas others still present lower velocities. As expected, the low-velocity anomaly beneath the Gulf of Cadiz becomes stronger while the ones beneath the islands become weaker. Even so, the islands still show low velocities.

To determine the depth structure beneath the study area, we extracted velocity values at the different points of the group-velocity maps at different periods. We will then invert them to build a 1D S-wave velocity profile for each grid point as a function of depth. We will discuss the obtained 3D shear-wave velocity maps in the area's geodynamic context.

This is a contribution to projects SIGHT (Ref. PTDC/CTA-GEF/30264/2017). The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support FCT through project UIDB/50019/2020 – IDL.

How to cite: Silveira, G., Carvalho, J., Kiselev, S., Stutzmann, E., and Schimmel, M.: 3D Imaging of the crust and uppermost mantle of the Northeast Atlantic, from Madeira and Canaries to the Atlas-Gibraltar zone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10076, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10076, 2022.

EGU22-10184 | Presentations | SM6.4

Unveiling the heterogeneous structure of the upper-mantle beneath the Canary and Madeira volcanic provinces 

Luciana Bonatto, David Schlaphorst, Graça Silveira, João Mata, Chiara Civiero, Claudia Piromallo, and Martin Schimmel

The Canary and Madeira archipelagos are two hotspots in the Eastern Atlantic (27º to 33º N) that are close (430 km) to each other. Their volcanism is thought to be caused by distinct mantle upwellings. Recent high resolution regional P-wave and S-SKS wave tomography images of the Ibero-western Maghrebian region show subvertical low velocity anomalies under the Canaries, the Atlas ranges and the Gibraltar Arc extending across all the upper mantle to the surface. The anomaly below the Canary archipelago and the Atlas are rooted beneath the mantle transition zone (MTZ) and appear to be connected to a broad and strong low-velocity anomaly in the lower mantle. Beneath Madeira, the slow anomaly has a blob-like shape and is only observed down to ~ 300 km depth, suggesting differences in the development stages of the upwellings at the origin of the two hotspots.

The  globally observed 410 and 660 upper-mantle seismic discontinuities are primarily linked to mineral phase transitions in olivine and the study of their local depth variations constrains the intra-mantle heat and mass transfer processes. The presence of discontinuities that are not globally observed may indicate the presence of compositional heterogeneities. For example, a sharp discontinuity has been detected at a depth of around 300 km (named the X discontinuity) beneath several hotspots (including the Canaries one) that could prove that the dominant peridotitic mantle mantle is locally enriched in basalt compositions. 

Here, we investigate the fine structure of the upper mantle beneath the Canary and Madeira volcanic provinces by means of P-to-S conversions at mantle discontinuities from teleseismic events recorded at 42 seismic stations (24 in the Canaries and 18 in Madeira). We compute 1304 high quality receiver functions (984 in the Canaries and 320 in Madeira) and stack them in the relative time-slowness domain to identify discontinuities in the 200-800 km depth range. Receiver functions are computed in different frequency bands to investigate the sharpness of the observed discontinuities. From the analysis of stacked receiver functions, we obtain robust and clear converted phases from the globally detected 410 and 660 discontinuities beneath both volcanic provinces. However, a reflector at ~300 km depth is only observed beneath the Canaries. For the Canary’s dataset we also detect multiples (Ppds, where d is the discontinuity depth) from the reflector at 300 km and from the 410 discontinuity while for the Madeira’s one, we only detect multiples from the 410. This study allows for a detailed comparison between the two archipelagos. The analysis of arrival times and amplitude of detected phases helps constraining the depth, width, and velocity jump of the observed discontinuities. These parameters and their interpretation based on mineral physics will add new constraints to the understanding of the geodynamical context of the Canary Island and Madeira hotspots. 

This is a contribution to project SIGHT (SeIsmic and Geochemical constraints on the Madeira HoTspot; Ref. PTDC/CTA-GEF/30264/2017). The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support of FCT through project UIDB/50019/2020 – IDL.

How to cite: Bonatto, L., Schlaphorst, D., Silveira, G., Mata, J., Civiero, C., Piromallo, C., and Schimmel, M.: Unveiling the heterogeneous structure of the upper-mantle beneath the Canary and Madeira volcanic provinces, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10184, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10184, 2022.

EGU22-10215 | Presentations | SM6.4

Crustal and uppermost mantle structure of Cape Verde from ambient noise tomography 

Joana Carvalho, Graça Silveira, Sergey Kiselev, Susana Custódio, Ricardo Ramalho, Eleonore Stutzmann, and Martin Schimmel

Using seismic data from 38 broadband seismic stations deployed across the volcanic islands of Cape Verde, we construct the first 3D-model of Sv-wave velocities for the uppermost 30 km of the region. We computed phase cross-correlations for vertical component recordings for all possible inter-island stations followed by a time-frequency phase-weighted stack to obtain robust Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion curves in the period band between 10 s and 24 s. Next, the dispersion curves were inverted, through the Fast Marching Surface Tomography package (FMST), in order to obtain the 2D group velocity-maps. We then inverted the group-velocity maps for the 3D shear-wave velocity structure of the crust and uppermost mantle beneath Cape Verde. As major features we considered the following: 1) low-velocity anomalies beneath and in the vicinities of the islands of Brava and Fogo, which we attribute to the predominance of melting pockets in these islands. Furthermore, the local seismicity also suggests the occurrence of ongoing intrusive processes beneath Fogo and Brava, which translates into a hotter, melt-rich upper crust and uppermost mantle 2) high-velocity anomalies in the northern islands, especially strong in the area surrounding the island of São Nicolau, that can reflect non-altered crust or remnants of magma chambers or solidified basaltic intrusions, which fed the ancient volcanism in these islands. The observed features are also distributed in three domains, according to the island volcanism age and latest major shield-building stages. If this is more than a coincidence, it can reflect different states of thermal maturity of the crust and uppermost mantle as a result of modification by magmatism and as a function of time. Our study, which allowed to image the crustal and uppermost mantle structure beneath Cape Verde, complements earlier deeper structure studies of the region and may also contribute to the characterization of the local seismicity by providing a new velocity model for structure.

How to cite: Carvalho, J., Silveira, G., Kiselev, S., Custódio, S., Ramalho, R., Stutzmann, E., and Schimmel, M.: Crustal and uppermost mantle structure of Cape Verde from ambient noise tomography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10215, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10215, 2022.

EGU22-10470 | Presentations | SM6.4

3D-ambient noise Rayleigh wave tomography of Fogo volcano, Cape Verde 

Stéphanie Dumont, Joana Carvalho, Graça Silveira, and Ricardo S. Ramalho

Fogo is a volcanic island located in the Cape Verde Archipelago and is one of the most active volcanoes on Earth, with numerous historical eruptions. Fogo has been widely studied from different perspectives, yet detailed characterization of its seismic structure is still missing, since previous seismic studies chiefly focused on regional features or on magmatic-induced seismicity.

Seismic tomography has proven to be a powerful tool to determine the velocity structure in volcanic environments. The energy necessary to perform such studies can be obtained from the seismicity in volcano's vicinity or from ambient seismic noise. At short periods, it is challenging to get good surface wave dispersion measurements on waveforms resultant from earthquakes due to attenuation and scattering; waveforms retrieved from ambient noise cross-correlations are, however, especially useful to image crustal structure.

In this study we used 14 seismic stations from three different networks deployed on Fogo. Ambient noise cross-correlations were computed for all possible inter-station pairs among the same network, through the phase cross-correlation technique. The empirical Green’s functions (EGF) were then obtained through the time-frequency phase-weighted stack. To decompose the EGFs in the time-frequency domain and thus obtain the dispersion curves of the Rayleigh waves, we applied the multiple filtering analysis (MFA). The Rayleigh wave fundamental mode group velocity curves were then picked manually and visually inspected for periods between 1 to 10 s. Tomographic inversions of the previously obtained group-velocity measurements were performed using the Fast Marching Surface Tomography package (FMST). To obtain the depth structure beneath Fogo, we extracted the values of velocity, from the set of 2D group-velocity maps, for 608 points of the grid, which are, in practical terms, local dispersion curves. The further inversion of these curves enables the construction of 1D S-wave velocity profiles for each node as a function of depth. The resulting 3D shear-wave velocity model shows two clear high-velocity anomalies: a stronger, well-defined tabular anomaly located between ~5 and 9 km of depth and beneath the entire island footprint, and a weaker but distinct anomaly located at 3–4 km of depth and only extending beneath the southwestern island sector, being absent in the northeast where the lowest velocities are attained. We interpret these positive anomalies as the result of intrusions of denser, now cooled sills, pervasively below the island edifice (whose base is located at ~5 km) and within the underlying seafloor sediments and crust (where rheological, density and thermal contrasts favor the emplacement of such intrusions), and higher up within the island edifice, beneath the southwestern sector. This latter positive anomaly is consistent with surface deformation represented by the NW-SE Galinheiros normal fault, which cuts across the island and exhibits ~150 m of vertical displacement, with the southwestern block being elevated relatively to the northeastern one. This study presents the first 3D shear-wave velocity model for Fogo, providing new and better insights into the local volcano-tectonic structure.

This is a contribution to project SIGHT (PTDC/CTA-GEF/30264/2017), RESTLESS (PTDC/CTA-GEF/6674/2020)  and UIDB/50019/2020 – IDL, both funded by FCT.

How to cite: Dumont, S., Carvalho, J., Silveira, G., and Ramalho, R. S.: 3D-ambient noise Rayleigh wave tomography of Fogo volcano, Cape Verde, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10470, 2022.

EGU22-10733 | Presentations | SM6.4

Investigating the seasonal triggering of earthquakes in the Azores 

Maria C. Neves, Ana Laura Dias, and Susana Custódio

The relationship between seismicity rates and water load variations has been recognized across the world at various spatial and temporal scales. In the oceans, one of the most notable such observations is that earthquakes at mid-ocean ridges tend to occur preferentially during low tide. In the region of the Azores triple junction, the analysis of a seismic catalogue from 2008 to 2018 revealed that earthquakes in the ocean present a genuine and statistically significant semi-annual seasonality, with more earthquakes occurring in the summer than in the winter. We have looked for mechanisms that could justify this observation. First, we assembled several geophysical time-series of regionally averaged variables that could constitute likely earth loading mechanisms, such as ocean bottom pressure anomalies, and performed a singular spectral analysis to identify and characterize their main modes of variability. Then, we computed the correlation between the possible loading mechanisms and the principal components of the seismicity rate. We found that the variable that best correlates with the seismicity rate (correlation coefficient of 0.9) is the sea level anomaly, which at the Azores latitude presents a marked seasonality related to the barotropic response to changes in wind stress. We therefore suggest that the seismicity peaks during low tide at mid-ocean ridges and the enhanced seismicity in the summer months in the Azores region share an analogous stress triggering mechanism. This work presents the results of Coulomb stress models that help to verify this hypothesis and better understand the relationship between the Earth's deformation and the annual ocean water load variations. The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support of FCT through project UIDB/50019/2020–IDL. This is a contribution to the RESTLESS project PTDC/CTA-GEF/6674/2020.

How to cite: Neves, M. C., Dias, A. L., and Custódio, S.: Investigating the seasonal triggering of earthquakes in the Azores, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10733, 2022.

EGU22-12002 | Presentations | SM6.4

Seismicity of the Terceira Island (Azores) recorded by a temporary seismic network  

João Fontiela, Nuno Afonso Dias, Graça Silveira, Mário Moreira, Fernando Carrilho, and Luís Matias
The last eruption in the Azores archipelago occurred in 1998-2000 and took place offshore, broadly 10 km WNW of Terceira. Terceira Island comprises four central polygenetic active volcanoes, Santa Bárbara, Pico Alto, Cinco Picos-Serra do Cume, Caldeira Guilherme Moniz, and a Basaltic Fissural zone. 
To study the seismicity at Terceira Island, we installed a dense seismic network with an average inter-station distance of 5 km. The total number of instruments in use were 31: 12 short-period (2 Hz) and five very short periods (4.5 Hz), both from Institute Dom Luiz (IDL), eight broadband (30s) from the University of Evora (UEv). The very short period instruments were installed around the Pico Alto geothermal power plant to improve the detectability of the micro-seismicity of the zone. The temporary seismic network operated at full capacity for 11 months and later with instruments from UEv and IPMA until the end of 2020. The permanent stations operated by the Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), namely two broadband (120s), two short period (5s) and two accelerometers, completed the temporary network. 
This work presents the preliminary results obtained with the seismic network. We detected some volcano-tectonic earthquakes in this period, mostly related to the Santa Bárbara Volcano and calculated the focal mechanism to the most energetic events. Behind the regular seismicity around the island, we observe an abnormal number of earthquakes in the stations installed in Pico Alto and central part regions.

Acknowledgments: This work is co-funded by national funds through FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P., under projects Ref UIDB/04683/2020, UIDB/50019/2020 e UIDP/04683/2020

How to cite: Fontiela, J., Afonso Dias, N., Silveira, G., Moreira, M., Carrilho, F., and Matias, L.: Seismicity of the Terceira Island (Azores) recorded by a temporary seismic network , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12002, 2022.

EGU22-12084 | Presentations | SM6.4 | Highlight

Automatic Detection and Location method of Tremor signals: A case study from East Java, Indonesia. 

Sergio Díaz, Valerie Maupin, Adriano Mazzini, Riccardo Minetto, Matteo Lupi, and Karyono Karyono

Mount Bromo is an andesitic stratovolcano in East Java, Indonesia, that entered into unrest between November 2015 and January 2016. The seismic activity was captured by the permanent seismic stations of the Indonesian seismological service (BMKG) and by a temporary (GIPP-provided) network deployed in the framework of the LusiLab Erc project. The goal of the temporary network deployed was to study the seismic signature of the newborn sediment-hosted geothermal system nicknamed LUSI. A preliminar inspection of the dataset showed that the activity of Bromo may have been recorded by stations of the temporary network. To investigate this further, we attempt an automatic detection and location of the impulsive and emergent signals recorded during Bromo’s eruption. We use the Recursive STA/LTA on each component of the stations and apply a coincidence trigger to adjust the pickings aside with a first-arrival validation through a polarization analysis. A total of 32.787 events were detected, and some of these are consistent with variations in the eruptive activity observed at Mt. Bromo. The accepted locations (RMS ≤ 1; 3.965 events) revealed multiple superficial sources, concentrated between 0 and 5 Km depth, originating from Mt. Bromo and 4 other main volcanic structures located in the surrounding region. Other sources were localized at greater depth, between 10 to 50 Km, and are attributed mainly to interactions between the magmatic chambers of the volcanoes, and movements in pre-existing sutures zones (faults) from overpressure of magmatic activity. Chronologically, a peak preceding the main eruption was found, characterized by an increase in Volcano-Tectonic-type (VT) signals beneath Mt. Bromo. This is consistent with other cases observed at similar strombolian-type volcanoes prior to eruptions. After an assessment of the automatic processing procedure used, we suggest improvements for future works by: 1) applying an association method based on the same principle as the coincidence trigger used in the detection step, and 2) using the polarization analysis in a sliding window along the event signal to re-pick the first-arrivals.

How to cite: Díaz, S., Maupin, V., Mazzini, A., Minetto, R., Lupi, M., and Karyono, K.: Automatic Detection and Location method of Tremor signals: A case study from East Java, Indonesia., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12084, 2022.

EGU22-12158 | Presentations | SM6.4 | Highlight

Evidence of seasonal modulation of seismic sequences in the Azores 

Ana Laura Lordi Dias, Maria C. Neves, Susana Custódio, and Stephanie Dumont

This work provides an assessment of cyclical variations in seismicity and their relationship with hydrological disturbances in the Azores Triple Junction, looking in particular for seasonal and inter-annual modulations of the earthquake occurrence rate caused by sea-level anomaly and total wave height variations. The work involves the manipulation and the statistical analysis of the Azores seismic catalogue (considering only oceanic events), from 2008 to 2018. We analyzed the seasonal variations of the ocean seismicity by computing the ratio of Winter/Spring (JFMA) events and Summer/Fall (JASO) events, following demonstrated methodologies applied in previous studies in continental areas such as the New Madrid seismic zone and the Himalayan mountains. The seismicity rates in the Azores are higher during Summer/fall (JASO) and lower during Winter/Spring (JFMA), with a ratio JFMA/JASO significantly lower than 1. Different months were also considered for the Winter/Summer ratio (NDJF/MJJA) to observe if the seasonal pattern is still present and statistically significant. The results show that the seasonal variations are better captured when considering the NDJF/MJJA ratio and regions with higher number of events, such as between the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and Faial and Pico islands. Monte Carlo simulations and the Jack-knife approach confirmed that the probability of observing such a seasonality by chance is less than 1% mainly for magnitudes from M3.2 to M5.0, and is not the consequence of extreme deviations. The connection between the seasonal modulation and the hydrological loads was investigated using the Singular Spectrum Analysis. The principal components of the ocean seismicity rate present a strong correlation with the total wave height, and mainly with the sea-level anomaly, which might be possible triggers of the ocean seismicity rate in the Azores region. The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support FCT through project UIDB/50019/2020 – IDL. This is a contribution to the RESTLESS project PTDC/CTA-GEF/6674/2020.

How to cite: Lordi Dias, A. L., Neves, M. C., Custódio, S., and Dumont, S.: Evidence of seasonal modulation of seismic sequences in the Azores, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12158, 2022.

Many studies highlight the benefits of using machine learning algorithms for the classification of volcano-seismic signals. However, when it comes to their widespread application, volcano observatories and researchers face two important challenges. i) The performance of these models highly depends on the size of the training set, where large amounts of labeled signals (thousands and sometimes even hundreds of thousands) are needed to get sufficient accuracy. ii) Most of them use data recorded by a single station and from only one component. This “master” station is generally one of the closest to the crater and, in volcanoes, it is common to face technical difficulties that interrupt the continuous recording, especially during periods of increased activity.

This strongly limits the possibility of applying machine learning approaches for efficient monitoring of volcanoes, especially during unrest periods.

Here, we show a simple method that addresses these difficulties using the information provided by the entire network of stations operating at Popocatepetl volcano (about 18 stations among permanent and temporal) and using all the components. Initially, we used a mid-size catalog of 507 single-channel labeled events recorded between 2019 and 2020. Later, to increase the size of our dataset and exploit the information provided by different channels, we added the signals of the three components of all the events, as well as signals of selected events recorded at different stations. This enlarged training set comprises 1725 signals of six classes: 345 noise, 324 explosions, 321 long periods (LP), 306 volcano-tectonics (VT), 264 tremors, and 165 regionals. To characterize the data, we used a previously proposed set of 102 features that describe the shape, statistics, and entropy of the signals. Then we applied two classification algorithms, random forest and support vector machines, to both our datasets. Our results show that the model of the enlarged dataset increases the overall accuracy by over 8% compared with the one produced using one station and only one component, with the additional benefit of guarantying continuous monitoring even when the “master” station is not working.

How to cite: Bernal Manzanilla, K. and Calò, M.: Automatic detection and classification of seismic signals of the Popocatepetl volcano, Mexico, using machine learning methods., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-225, 2022.

EGU22-447 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Eruption forecasting at Strokkur geyser, Iceland: An application of Permutation Entropy 

Maria Sudibyo, Eva P.S. Eibl, and Sebastian Hainzl

A volcanic eruption is usually preceded by increased seismic activity resulting from magma propagation. Although these precursors can be detected by a modern seismometer, it is still a challenge to answer whether they will be followed by an actual eruption and when the eruption will occur after precursors are detected. The time between the start of volcanic unrest and the actual eruption is crucial. Therefore, there is a need for an assessment tool that is applicable in real-time. Permutation Entropy (PE) has been recently suggested to be a promising tool for the prediction of volcanic eruptions. It is a robust yet simple tool to quantify the complexity of time series. We aim to find out whether there is a distinct feature in the temporal variation of PE that is useful for eruption forecasting. We performed several synthetic tests to understand how PE works and how to choose the optimum input parameters for a signal with certain properties. We then applied this knowledge to calculate PE of seismic data that recorded eruptions of Strokkur geyser, Iceland on the 10th of June 2018. 78 eruptions occurred within five hours of observation. We used this fast-repeating process to check if the eruptions cause a repetitive pattern of PE. The input parameters used for PE calculation are a window length of 1 second, an embedding dimension of 5, and a delay time of 0.067 seconds. Our results show a distinct, repeating pattern of the PE that is consistent with the phases in the eruptive cycle of Strokkur as described by Eibl et al. (2021). The PE drops in the stage of bubble accumulation at depth, then undergoes repeated increasing and decreasing patterns during regular bubble collapses at depth in the conduit, and finally continuously increases as a precursor towards the time of eruption on the surface. The average duration of this precursor to the eruption is about 10 seconds.

How to cite: Sudibyo, M., Eibl, E. P. S., and Hainzl, S.: Eruption forecasting at Strokkur geyser, Iceland: An application of Permutation Entropy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-447, 2022.

EGU22-992 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

The tensile strength of volcanic rocks 

Michael Heap, Andrea Aguilar Velasco, Patrick Baud, Lucille Carbillet, Frances Deegan, H. Albert Gilg, Luke Griffiths, Claire Harnett, Zhen Heng, Eoghan Holohan, Jean-Christophe Komorowski, Roberto Moretti, Thierry Reuschlé, Marina Rosas-Carbajal, Chun’an Tang, Valentin Troll, Emma Vairé, Marie Vistour, Fabian Wadsworth, and Tao Xu

The tensile strength of volcanic rock exerts control over several key volcanic processes, including fragmentation, magma chamber rupture, and dyke propagation. However, and despite this importance, values of tensile strength for volcanic rocks are relatively rare. It is also unclear how their tensile strength is modified by rock physical properties such as porosity, pore size, and pore shape and ongoing processes such as hydrothermal alteration. We present here the results of systematic laboratory and numerical experiments designed to better understand the influence of porosity, microstructural parameters (pore size, shape, and orientation), and hydrothermal alteration on the tensile strength of volcanic rocks. Our data show that tensile strength is reduced by up to an order of magnitude as porosity is increased from 0.01 to above 0.3, highlighting that porosity exerts a first-order control on the tensile strength of volcanic rocks. Our data also show that pore diameter, pore aspect ratio, and pore orientation can also influence tensile strength. Finally, our data show that hydrothermal alteration can decrease tensile strength if associated with mineral dissolution and weak secondary minerals, or increase tensile strength if associated with pore- and crack-filling mineral precipitation. We present a series of theoretical and semi-empirical constitutive models that can be used to estimate the tensile strength of volcanic rocks as a function of porosity or alteration intensity. To outline the implications of our data, we show how tensile strength estimations can influence predictions of magma overpressures and assessments of the volume and radius of a magma chamber, and we explore the influence of alteration using discrete element method modelling in which we model the amount and distribution of damage within variably-altered host-rock surrounding a pressurised dyke. It is our hope that the experiments, models, and understanding provided by our study prove useful for modellers that require the tensile strength of volcanic rocks for their models.

How to cite: Heap, M., Aguilar Velasco, A., Baud, P., Carbillet, L., Deegan, F., Gilg, H. A., Griffiths, L., Harnett, C., Heng, Z., Holohan, E., Komorowski, J.-C., Moretti, R., Reuschlé, T., Rosas-Carbajal, M., Tang, C., Troll, V., Vairé, E., Vistour, M., Wadsworth, F., and Xu, T.: The tensile strength of volcanic rocks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-992, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-992, 2022.

The Klyuchevskoy group of volcanoes (KGV) is a unique complex, which includes extremely productive volcanoes with variable composition and eruption regimes. During the past ten years, a considerable progress in understanding the deep processes beneath KGV was achieved owing to a number of seismic tomography studies based on data of permanent and temporary seismic networks. The purpose of this review consists in summarizing and systematizing these results and in building an integral model of volcano feeding systems beneath KGV.

The regional scale mantle tomography model shows the presence of high-velocity slabs beneath the Kamchatka and Aleutian arcs and a clearly pronounced gap between them. On a crustal scale, seismic velocity structures and seismicity highlight different types of feeding systems beneath separate volcanoes. Beneath Klyuchevskoy, the seismicity traces a "vertical pipe" that delivers magmatic material from a mantle source to the surface. A prominent low-velocity anomaly beneath Bezymianny represents an area of accumulation and fractioning of magma in the middle crust. Linear velocity anomalies and earthquake lineaments beneath the Tolbachinsky complex mark fault zones serving as pathways for rapid ascent of basaltic magma.

The detailed structure of the mantle wedge beneath the Klyuchevskoy group and surroundings was studied based on the data of a large temporary seismic network with more than a hundred seismic stations installed within the KISS Project. Beneath the Klyuchevskoy volcano, the Vp/Vs distribution reveals three flows of melts and volatiles coming out from the slab at depths of 100, 120, and 150 km. These flows unite at shallower depths and form a large reservoir at the base of the crust that feeds the Klyuchevskoy volcano. The low-velocity anomalies of the P and S waves in the mantle wedge indicate the hot asthenospheric flow vertically ascending through the slab window below Shiveluch volcano, and then spreading horizontally toward the volcanoes of the Klyuchevskoy Group. The presence of this flow together with active release of fluids from the slab are the main causes of the extremely high activity of the volcanoes of the Klyuchevskoy group.

The detailed structure of the magmatic system in the upper crust beneath Bezymianny was studied based on the data of a local seismic network, installed a few months before a strong explosive eruption occurred on December 20, 2017. The derived 3D seismic velocity distribution beneath Bezymianny illuminates its eruptive state days before the eruption. It infers the coexistence of magma and gas reservoirs revealed as anomalies of low (1.5) and high (2.0) Vp/Vs ratios, respectively, located at depths of 2-3 km and only 2 km apart. The reservoirs both control the current eruptive activity: while the magma reservoir is responsible for episodic dome growth and lava flow emplacements, the spatially separated gas reservoir may control short but powerful explosive eruptions of Bezymianny.

This research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant #20-17-00075.

How to cite: Koulakov, I.: Multiscale structure of magma feeding system between the Klyuchevskoy volcano group in Kamchatka, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1061, 2022.

EGU22-1151 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

A machine learning method for seismic signal monitoring: A contribution to the detection of the potential volcanic hazard on Etna, Italy 

Susanna Falsaperla, Horst Langer, Alfio Messina, and Salvatore Spampinato

The dynamics driving an eruption play a crucial role in the impact volcanic activity has on the community at large. The interpretation of geophysical and geochemical changes heralding a volcanic unrest is a fundamental key to forecasting upcoming phenomena. However, the style and intensity of the eruption are difficult to predict, even in open-conduit volcanoes where eruptions can be relatively frequent. This is the case of Etna, in Italy, one of the most active basaltic volcanoes in the world. In 2021, fifty-two lava fountains arose from its Southeast Crater accompanied by lava emissions and ash fallout, which disrupted air and road traffic in numerous Sicilian municipalities. Lava fountains are just one of the typical eruptive styles of Etna. Strombolian activity and lava flows are also relatively frequent here, each with its own characteristics in terms of intensity and social impact.
We developed a machine learning (ML) method for the analysis of the seismic data continuously acquired by the local stations of the Etna permanent seismic network, exploiting the spectral characteristics of the signal. Its design started from: i) the need to detect the volcanic hazard, and ii) provide timely and indicative information on possible eruptive scenarios to the Civil Protection and the Authorities. Besides the identification of anomalies in the data, which flag enhanced volcano dynamics in its early stages, we investigate on clues concerning the potential intensity level of eruptive phenomena. The method works in near real time and can effectively contribute to the multidisciplinary analysis of volcanic hazard.

How to cite: Falsaperla, S., Langer, H., Messina, A., and Spampinato, S.: A machine learning method for seismic signal monitoring: A contribution to the detection of the potential volcanic hazard on Etna, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1151, 2022.

EGU22-1862 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

The 2021 Activity of Kamchatkan Volcanoes and Danger to Aviation 

Olga Girina, Alexander Manevich, Dmitry Melnikov, Anton Nuzhdaev, Iraida Romanova, Evgeny Loupian, and Aleksei Sorokin

Strong explosive eruptions of volcanoes are the most dangerous for aircraft because they can produce in a few hours or days to the atmosphere and the stratosphere till several cubic kilometers of volcanic ash and aerosols. Ash plumes and the clouds, depending on the power of the eruption, the strength and wind speed, can travel thousands of kilometers from the volcano for several days, remaining hazardous to aircraft, as the melting temperature of small particles of ash below the operating temperature of jet engines.

There are 30 active volcanoes in the Kamchatka; scientists of KVERT monitor these volcanoes since 1993. Description of volcanic eruptions is based on video monitoring and various satellite data from the information system "Remote monitoring of the activity of volcanoes of the Kamchatka and the Kuriles" (VolSatView, http://kamchatka.volcanoes.smislab.ru). In 2021, three volcanoes (Sheveluch, Klyuchevskoy, and Karymsky) had eruptions.

The eruptive activity of Sheveluch (growth of the lava dome) is continuing since 1980. In 2021, explosions sent ash up to 7.5 km a.s.l. mainly in August and December; ash plumes were extending more 380 km to the different directions of the volcano. A new plastic lava block Dolphin-2 squeezed at the dome from February till July 2021. Resuspended ash was observed on 02-03 April, 06-07 July, 13-14 and 22 August, and 06-07 and 21 October: ash plumes were extending for 400 km to the east and southeast of the volcano. Satellite data by KVERT showed a thermal anomaly over the volcano all year. Activity of the volcano was dangerous to local aviation.

The terminal explosive-effusive eruptions of Klyuchevskoy volcano took place from 30 September, 2020 to 08 February, 2021. Explosions sent ash up to 8 km a.s.l., gas-steam plumes containing some amount of ash were extending for 500 km to the different directions of the volcano. The lava flows moved along Apakhonchichsky and Kozyrevsky chutes. Satellite data by KVERT showed a thermal anomaly over the volcano all year. The lateral break on the northwestern slope of Klyuchevskoy at an altitude of 2.8 km a.s.l. lasted from 17 February to 20 March, 2021: lava effused from two cracks, a cinder cone 60 m high was formed. By February 23, lava flows 1.2 km long reached the Erman glacier, mud flows passed about 30 km. Activity of the volcano was dangerous to international and local aviation.

Eruptive activity of Karymsky volcano was uneven in 2021. According to satellite data, the strong ash explosions were observed: on 04 April (8.5 km a.s.l.), 10 September (7 km a.s.l.), 03 November (11 km a.s.l.), and 06, 13, and 18 November (8 km a.s.l.); in the other months explosions sent ash up to 6 km a.s.l.; ash plumes and clouds drifted for 2700 km to the different directions from the volcano. The thermal anomaly over the volcano was recorded on satellite images from time to time. Activity of the volcano was dangerous to international and local aviation.

How to cite: Girina, O., Manevich, A., Melnikov, D., Nuzhdaev, A., Romanova, I., Loupian, E., and Sorokin, A.: The 2021 Activity of Kamchatkan Volcanoes and Danger to Aviation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1862, 2022.

EGU22-2115 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

The structure of the upper crust under the Kambalny volcano (Southern Kamchatka) according to the results of seismic tomography 

Viktoria Komzeleva, Ivan Koulakov, Sergey Rychagov, Evgeny Gordeev, Ilyas Abkadyrov, Tatiana Stupina, and Angelika Novgorodova

In this study we present the results of tomography studies for seismic velocity in the area of Kambalny volcano (Southern Kamchatka). After a long repose stage, on March 24, 2017, it produced a strong phreatic eruption, which ejected an ash cloud to the distance of up to 1000 km. We have obtained the first 3D model of seismic velocities beneath the area of Kambalny based on the data recorded by a temporal network of ten seismic stations installed for one year in 2018-2019. The distributions of velocities of the P and S seismic waves, and especially the Vp/Vs ratio, provide the information on the geometry of the plumbing system beneath the volcano in the upper crust down to ~10 km, which makes it possible to build a scenario of preparation and occurrence of the explosive eruption in 2017. We clearly identify an anomaly of high Vp/Vs ratio in the depth interval of 7-10 km, which is interpreted as a magma reservoir responsible for Holocene activity of Kambalny. This reservoir appears to be connected with the volcano edifice by a linear zone of high Vp/Vs ratio, which may represent a system of fractures originated during the eruption in March 2017 and served as a pathway for magma ascent. We propose that the interaction of hot magma with meteoric fluids in shallow layers caused active boiling and steam formation in a closed reservoir below the volcano. After exceeding a critical pressure, the steam escaped to the surface causing an explosive eruption. We also found evidence that geothermal fields located to the north and northwest of Kambalny might be fed from separate deep sources. The area of Kambalny is characterized by strong geothermal activity, most of which is located to the north and to the west of the volcano. The northern geothermal manifestations mostly occur on the northern part of the Kambalny Ridge and in the Pauzhetka depression. We found that the geothermal activity in these areas is likely associated with a deep source, which appears to be isolated from the magma reservoir below Kambalny volcano. A similar isolated anomaly is observed below geothermal fields in the area of the Koshelev volcano to the west, which may indicate that the geothermal activity appears to be independent of the magmatic system of Kambalny volcano, at least for its upper-crustal part.

This study was partially supported by the Russian Science Foundation project # 20-17-00075.

How to cite: Komzeleva, V., Koulakov, I., Rychagov, S., Gordeev, E., Abkadyrov, I., Stupina, T., and Novgorodova, A.: The structure of the upper crust under the Kambalny volcano (Southern Kamchatka) according to the results of seismic tomography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2115, 2022.

EGU22-2529 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Fibre-Optic Sensing for Volcano Monitoring on Grímsvötn, Iceland 

Sara Klaasen, Sölvi Thrastarson, Yeşim Çubuk-Sabuncu, Kristín Jónsdóttir, Lars Gebraad, and Andreas Fichtner

We present the results of an experiment with Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) on Grímsvötn in Iceland. DAS is a novel detection method that samples the strain wavefield due to ground motion along a fibre-optic cable with high temporal (kHz) and spatial (m) resolution. Consequently, it has the potential to increase our understanding of physical volcanic processes.

 

We deployed a 12 km long fibre-optic cable for one month (May 2021) on Grímsvötn, Iceland’s most active volcano, which is completely covered by the large Vatnajökull ice sheet. The cable was trenched 50 cm into the ice, following the caldera rim and ending near the central point of the caldera on top of a subglacial lake. A large number of hammer blow experiments allow us to estimate the Rayleigh wave dispersion curves, and thickness of the ice layer on top of the volcanic rock.

 

We have discovered previously undetected levels of seismicity, with up to several hundreds of local events per day, using an automated earthquake detection algorithm that is based on image processing techniques. First arrival picks are identified with an automated cross-correlation based algorithm, developed specifically for complex and local events recorded with DAS. The first arrival times, combined with a probabilistic interpretation and the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm, allow us to estimate event locations and their respective uncertainties, even in the absence of a detailed velocity model. The detection and localisation of the recorded events paints a differentiated picture of Grímsvötn’s volcano-seismicity.

 

The preliminary results of our experiment highlight the potential of DAS for studies of active volcanoes covered by glaciers, and we hope that this research will contribute to the fields of volcano monitoring and hazard assessment.

How to cite: Klaasen, S., Thrastarson, S., Çubuk-Sabuncu, Y., Jónsdóttir, K., Gebraad, L., and Fichtner, A.: Fibre-Optic Sensing for Volcano Monitoring on Grímsvötn, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2529, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2529, 2022.

EGU22-2846 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

S-wave velocity structure at the Galápagos Archipelago (Ecuador) using ambient seismic noise 

José Augusto Casas, Fabrizio Magrini, Boris Kaus, Gabriela Badi, Mario Z. Ruiz, Cynthia Ebinger, Deyan Draganov, and Luca De Siena

The Galápagos Archipelago originates from a plume-like structure that rises from the mantle about 250 km south of the islands. The Isabela Island, located on the western part of the Archipelago, contains several of the most active volcanoes in Galápagos, among them Alcedo, Cerro Azul, and Sierra Negra, whose last eruptions occurred in 1953, 2008, and 2018, respectively.

Several studies from different disciplines have been performed to image the subsurface structures at the volcanoes on Isabela. They report a melt-rich sill located at 2 km depth, a crystal-mush zone below Sierra Negra located at depths approximately between 8 to 15 km, and a magma intrusion for depths between the sill and the crystal mush before the 2010 eruption of Sierra Negra. However, the resolution of these studies is limited along many areas and depths because of multiple reasons, like non-ideal station distribution, limitations on the selected methodologies, or sparse earthquake locations.

Using seismic data recorded by two temporal seismic networks deployed in the Archipelago, we used the ambient seismic noise to obtain a 3D S-wave velocity model; we used this information to improve the understanding of the structure of the subsurface in the area. One of the networks -XE array- was composed of 18 stations deployed between July 2009 and June 2011; the second network -YH array, composed of 10 stations, was deployed between August 1999 and March 2003. Provided the distribution of the seismic stations, a higher resolution was obtained on Isabella Island. Therefore, we focused our analysis on the regional-scale feeding systems of the volcanoes in Isabela, in particular, Alcedo, Sierra Negra, and Cerro Azul volcanoes.

Through an iterative linear-least-squares inversion methodology, we obtained Rayleigh phase-velocity maps for periods in the range 2.5-25 s. Subsequently, we inverted the obtained tomographic maps for retrieving the S-wave velocity distribution as a function of depth. Our results indicate two main discontinuities, located at 3 and 11 km depth, agreeing with the expected depth for the discontinuity between old and new oceanic crust. The first layer presents an average S-wave velocity of 2.4 km/s, while the second and third layers - 3.0 km/s and 3.4 km/s, respectively. Our results show two relevant low-velocity zones in the subsurface: one is located between Sierra Negra and Alcedo volcanoes centered at 20 km depth, the second one is below Sierra Negra at 8 km depth, which we interpret as magma accumulation zones. In addition, our results show a high-velocity zone at 3 km depth, coincident with the previously reported melt-rich sill.

This work not only validates the results obtained by previous works but provides information with higher resolution for certain depths of the subsurface of hazardous volcanoes on Galápagos.

How to cite: Casas, J. A., Magrini, F., Kaus, B., Badi, G., Ruiz, M. Z., Ebinger, C., Draganov, D., and De Siena, L.: S-wave velocity structure at the Galápagos Archipelago (Ecuador) using ambient seismic noise, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2846, 2022.

EGU22-2972 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Using radio frequency signal classification to monitor explosive eruptive activity 

Sonja Behnke, Harald Edens, James Theiler, Diana Swanson, Seda Senay, Masato Iguchi, and Daisuke Miki

Explosive volcanic eruptions often produce a repeatable pattern of electrical activity that can be exploited for volcano hazard monitoring. First, a swarm of small “vent discharges” occurs within the gas thrust region of the plume starting at the onset of an explosion. Vent discharges often persist for several seconds, depending on the duration of the explosion. In addition, vent discharges are known to occur in high-intensity explosions involving the fragmentation of fresh magma. Several seconds after the onset of an explosion, lightning starts to occur throughout the eruption column as charge begins to separate. This chronological sequence of vent discharges followed by lightning has been observed during eruptions from several different volcanoes, including Augustine Volcano, Redoubt Volcano, Eyjafjallajokull, and Sakurajima. In this presentation we demonstrate a proof-of-concept method for an eruption detection algorithm that exploits this common and repeatable pattern. The algorithm leverages a logistic regression classifier to distinguish between radio frequency waveforms of vent discharges and lightning. To demonstrate our method, we use broadband (20-80 MHz) very high frequency (VHF) waveform data of explosive volcanic eruptions from the Minamidake crater of Sakurajima volcano in Japan collected between May 2019 and May 2020. We show that individual VHF impulses produced by vent discharges and lightning can be accurately classified due to differences in the amount of signal clutter surrounding each type of impulse. In particular, we show that impulses from vent discharges are more isolated in time compared to impulses from lightning. The results of the signal classifier are then used to identify the characteristic pattern of volcanic electrical activity to determine if an explosive event has occurred. Implementation of the detection algorithm on an agile and deployable VHF sensor would engender a new method of volcano hazard monitoring, and help facilitate the research necessary to operationalize measurements of volcanic electrical activity in order to inform an eruption response.

How to cite: Behnke, S., Edens, H., Theiler, J., Swanson, D., Senay, S., Iguchi, M., and Miki, D.: Using radio frequency signal classification to monitor explosive eruptive activity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2972, 2022.

EGU22-3187 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Using seismology to probe the modern magma reservoir at Taupō volcano, Aotearoa New Zealand 

Eleanor Mestel, Finnigan Illsley-Kemp, Martha Savage, Colin Wilson, and Bubs Smith

Taupō volcano, in the centre of North Island, Aotearoa New Zealand, is a frequently active rhyolitic caldera volcano that was the site of Earth’s most recent supereruption (Oruanui ~25 ka)1,2. It has erupted 28 times since then, and continues to display signs of unrest (seismicity and surface deformation), with periods of elevated unrest on roughly decadal timescales3. Any resumption of eruptive activity at the volcano poses a major source of hazard, and interactions between the magma reservoir and the regional tectonics that lead to unrest and possible eruption are not well understood. The location of the modern magma reservoir has been previously constrained by study of past eruptive products and some geophysical imaging (gravity, broad-scale tomography)2. Earthquake patterns during a 2019 unrest episode have also been used to infer the location and size (>~250 km3) of the modern-day reservoir4, but its location and extent have not yet been directly imaged. As part of the interdisciplinary ECLIPSE project, seismological methods are being used to investigate the Taupō reservoir, combining data from the national GeoNet seismic network with records from a temporary 13 broadband seismometer network. Development of the ECLIPSE network approximately doubles the number of seismic stations within 10 km of the lake shore.

We present here initial results on the characterisation of the seismicity in the Taupō region. These results include the improvement of earthquake locations with the addition of picks from the ECLIPSE stations and the use of automated machine learning phase picking and association techniques. We also present initial results from the cross correlation of ambient noise between stations in the ECLIPSE network for the use in ambient noise surface wave tomography, with many of the station pairs crossing the region most likely to contain the modern-day magma reservoir.

1 Wilson CJN J. Volcanol Geotherm Res 112, 133 (2001)
2 Barker SJ et al. NZ J Geol Geophys 64, 320 (2021)
3 Potter SH et al. Bull Volcanol 77, 78 (2015)
4 Illsley‐Kemp F et al. G-cubed 22, e2021GC009803 (2021)

How to cite: Mestel, E., Illsley-Kemp, F., Savage, M., Wilson, C., and Smith, B.: Using seismology to probe the modern magma reservoir at Taupō volcano, Aotearoa New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3187, 2022.

EGU22-4568 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Assessing the elements at risk in volcanic areas by combining deep convolutional neural network and multispectral satellite images 

Claudia Corradino, Anu Pious, Eleonora Amato, Federica Torrisi, Maide Bucolo, Luigi Fortuna, and Ciro Del Negro

Volcanic eruptions are spectacular but dangerous phenomena. Depending on their magnitude and location, they also have the potential for becoming major social and economic disasters. Some of the most important volcanic events include ash fallout, lava flows, and related phenomena, such as volcanic debris avalanches and tsunamis. The ongoing demographic congestion around volcanic structures, such as Mount Etna, increases the potential risks and costs that volcanic eruptions represent and leads to a growing demand for implementing effective risk mitigation measures. To fully evaluate the potential damage and losses that a volcanic eruption disaster may cause, the distribution and characterization of all the exposed elements must be considered. Over the past decades, advances in satellite remote sensing and geographic information system techniques have greatly assisted the collection of land cover data. However, assessment of the elements at risk is a lengthy and time-consuming process. In fact, usually data including all exposed elements and land uses are gathered from several Institutional web portals and very high-resolution satellite imagery, not freely available, manipulated by operators. Here, we propose a deep learning approach to automatically identify the elements at risk in high spatial resolution satellite images. In particular, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model is adopted to classify land use and land cover in volcanic areas thus allowing to carefully assess the total exposure by using freely available satellite images. A retrospective analysis is conducted on Mount Etna highlighting changes in the exposure over the last decade.

How to cite: Corradino, C., Pious, A., Amato, E., Torrisi, F., Bucolo, M., Fortuna, L., and Del Negro, C.: Assessing the elements at risk in volcanic areas by combining deep convolutional neural network and multispectral satellite images, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4568, 2022.

EGU22-5087 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

The complex plumbing system of Oldoinyo Lengai seen by 3D attenuation tomography 

Miriam Christina Reiss, Luca de Siena, and James Muirhead

Oldoinyo Lengai volcano, located in the Natron Basin (Tanzania), is the only active natrocarbonatite volcano worldwide. It thus represents an essential end-member magmatic system in a young rift segment (~3 Ma) of the East African Rift System. Following a period of relative quiescence after the 2007-08 explosive eruption and dike intrusions beneath the volcano itself and neighbouring inactive shield volcano Gelai, seismicity and effusive lava flows within the crater show a heightened level of activity since 2019. Employing data from a recent seismic experiment, Reiss et al. 2021 used seismicity and focal mechanisms patterns to map the complex volcanic plumbing system and its impact on rift processes.

Here, we use the recorded waveforms of local earthquakes to employ the newly developed 3D multi-scale reasonable attenuation tomography (MuRAT) to constrain the complex volcanic plumbing system in unprecedented detail. Our attenuation analysis measures peak delay and coda wave attenuation to separately measure seismic scattering, attenuation and absorption and model those parameters in 3D. Compared to a classical travel time tomography, this allows us to map seismic interfaces such as faults, fluid reservoirs and melt batches. We use over 20 000 waveforms and perform a separate inversion for coda wave attenuation and a regionalisation for peak delay measurements in different frequencies, which are sensitive to different structures and depths.

While the lower frequencies are sensitive to larger-scale features and structures close to the surface, the higher frequencies provide better resolution on smaller features and structures at depth. Accordingly, we map different aspects of the complex 3D plumbing system of Oldoinyo Lengai and the rift itself in different frequencies. Our results show strong scattering and attenuation near fluid-filled, deep-reaching faults, producing seismic swarms. We also detect the existence of previously unknown, small magma reservoirs in the shallowest part of the crust that might have fed previous dike intrusions and clearly shows an interconnected plumbing system stretching from the border fault across a developing magmatic rift segment.

How to cite: Reiss, M. C., de Siena, L., and Muirhead, J.: The complex plumbing system of Oldoinyo Lengai seen by 3D attenuation tomography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5087, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5087, 2022.

Long-period earthquakes and tremors are one of two main classes of volcano-seismic activity. Deep long-period (DLP) earthquakes are of particular interest because usually they are attributed to the processes occurring in the deep magma reservoirs close the crust–mantle boundary. The physical mechanism of generation of these earthquakes is still not fully understood. The hypotheses of the DLPs origin include thermomechanical stresses associated with cooling of deep intrusions, rapid CO2 degassing from the oversaturated basaltic magmas, and secondary boiling.

In this work, we study the long-period earthquakes that occur at the crust-mantle boundary beneath the Klyuchevskoy volcano group in Kamchatka in order to reconstruct their source mechanism. We considered three possible sources (single force, shear slip and tensile crack) that can produce DLPs. With given hypocentral location and radiation patterns we calculated synthetic seismograms for each of assumed mechanisms. Then, we compared obtained signals with real records measuring amplitudes of P and S waves at each channel and calculating their ratios. For each of he considered types of mechanisms, we perform a grid search in the parameter space and found an optimal solution that minimizes the misfit between the observations and the model predictions.

How to cite: Galina, N. and Shapiro, N.: Source Mechanisms of Deep Long Period Earthquakes beneath the Klyuchevskoy Volcano Group (Kamchatka, Russia) inferred from S-to-P amplitude ratios, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7394, 2022.

EGU22-7418 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Analysis of volcanic activity of Yasur volcano with long range infrasound observation 

Rebecca Sveva Morelli, Paola Campus, Diego Coppola, and Emanuele Marchetti

The atmospheric injection of gas and material produced by an explosive volcanic eruption determines a rapid compression of the atmosphere, which subsequently propagates as longitudinal elastic waves (sound). The size of the source, generally greater than tens of meters, and its duration, longer than few seconds, result into an emitted signal that is particularly rich in low frequency (f < 20 Hz), thus determining an efficient infrasound radiation. Thanks to the low spectral content and the reduced attenuation in the atmosphere, infrasound is capable of propagating for very large distances.

In this study we show how the infrasonic monitoring of volcanoes at regional distances (> 100 km) is efficient in recording and characterizing volcanic events. For the purpose of our study, detections from the Yasur volcano (Tanna Island, Vanuatu) registered at a source-to-receiver distance of 400 km by the IS22 infrasound array, located in New Caledonia and part of the Comprehensive nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) International Monitoring System (IMS), were studied for a period of eleven years (2008-2018). The predominantly explosive Strombolian activity of this volcano makes it a perfect subject to be studied by infrasound technology.

Detections of infrasound signals from Yasur volcano, that are modulated according to the seasonal variation of stratospheric winds, are corrected for attenuation accounting for real atmospheric specification between the source and the receiver to retrieve the pressure at the source: next, they are used to evaluate long term (yearly) and short term (hourly) variations of activity over the period of analysis. Results are eventually compared with thermal anomalies recorded by the MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) installed on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites and computed by the MIROVA hotspot detection system.

We show that even at regional (400 km) distances it is possible to follow the fluctuations of ordinary explosive activity during periods of optimal propagation of infrasonic waves in the atmosphere, In addition, we show that, when the signal is recorded, the time resolution retrieved from the analysis allows following variations of activity at hourly time scale, thus representing a valuable source of information, in particular in areas where local geophysical observation is missing.

How to cite: Morelli, R. S., Campus, P., Coppola, D., and Marchetti, E.: Analysis of volcanic activity of Yasur volcano with long range infrasound observation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7418, 2022.

EGU22-7523 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Quantifying lava temperature with a low-cost silicon-based thermal camera 

Joshua Marks, Jonas Kuhn, Christopher Fuchs, Nicole Bobrowski, and Ulrich Platt

An important characteristic quantity of volcanoes is the temperature of their magma. It depends on the magma composition, the volcanic activity, and partly affects the composition of magmatic gases that are later released to the atmosphere. Lava temperature measurements are thus desired for a manifold of volcanic studies at volcanoes including open magma-atmosphere interface (e.g. lava lakes).

The mostly used commercially available thermal cameras for the relevant temperature range (ca. 600-1200 °C) are still rather expensive, bulky, and have a limited spatial resolution.

We present an approach to use a compact (‘point and shoot’) consumer digital camera with a silicon based detector as a thermometer to record the spatial temperature distribution and variations of volcanic lava. Silicon detectors are commonly sensitive in the near infrared wavelength range (until ca. 1100 nm), which readily allows measurements of temperatures above ca. 500 °C. The camera is modified to block the visible spectrum and the remaining colour filter (Bayer filter) characteristics are used to infer the temperature from differential intensity measurements.

In the frame of this work, we performed a sensitivity study and calibrated the camera with a heated wire in the range of 600-1100 °C. Besides the advantages of the low costs, superior mobility and simple handling, the 16 megapixel spatial resolution of the temperature measurement allows resolving detailed temperature distributions in highly dynamic volcanic emission processes.

How to cite: Marks, J., Kuhn, J., Fuchs, C., Bobrowski, N., and Platt, U.: Quantifying lava temperature with a low-cost silicon-based thermal camera, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7523, 2022.

EGU22-8126 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Smart seismic instrumentation for volcanic networks 

Neil Watkiss, Rui Barbara, Marcella Cilia, Will Reis, Sally Mohr, and Phil Hill

Recent technological advances in broadband seismic instrumentation allow operators to increase station density and installation flexibility on active volcanoes while increasing the observable frequency bandwidth compared with traditional geophone arrays.

Large quantities of instruments increase the footprint or increase the density of an array due to reduced costs of sensors and improved power specifications requiring less auxiliary equipment. This also allows installation in previously inaccessible areas due to portability, widening the scope of array design.

Traditionally, the Güralp 6-series and 40-series instruments have often been popular on volcanic sites due to their ruggedness and simplicity to operate. Advances in Güralp’s pioneering engineering mean that operators are increasingly looking towards new instrumentation: Certimus and Certis.

This new family of instruments presents digital and analogue options of a triaxial broadband sensor that functions at any angle without any need for human intervention. This is especially useful for rapid installations where time is of the essence; there is no need to level the instrument during installation, vastly reducing field complications and deployment times. This feature has been extensively deployed in glacial regions of Iceland where instrument tilt would have prevented previous installations but where the Certimus has triumphed in providing data on sub-glacial volcanic activity.

A user-configurable long period corner between 120s, 10s and 1s allows the operator to alter the response of their instrument depending on the requirement after delivery. Therefore, an array of short-period sensors is immediately adjusted to become a long-period array either locally or remotely.

Sub-300mW power consumption means both Certimus and Certis can be deployed with very small batteries and solar panels. GSL has also developed a compact lithium-ion battery pack to be used with the instruments for the very purpose of remote installations where lead-acid batteries cannot be transported.

Beneath the surface, the same technology is deployed in boreholes and postholes through the narrow-diameter Radian seismometer. A network of 17 Radian instruments is deployed across Mount Teide on the island of Tenerife, cored into the volcano itself to improve noise performance in this remote area.

When utilising instruments such as Certis and Radian that require a datalogger, the Güralp Minimus provides scope for incorporating other auxiliary meteorological, geochemical or geophysical sensors into a single station. As standard, the Minimus increases the number of analogue input channels beyond what is required for a triaxial seismometer which in turn increases the possibility of an observatory-style station.

In addition to land-based technology, Güralp has supplied several Ocean Bottom Seismometer (“OBS”) systems to clients monitoring volcanic activity at axial seamounts. As well as using cabled OBS systems, autonomous units are deployed to increase the spatial footprint of volcanic island arrays and therefore gain greater understanding of volcanic structure at depth.

How to cite: Watkiss, N., Barbara, R., Cilia, M., Reis, W., Mohr, S., and Hill, P.: Smart seismic instrumentation for volcanic networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8126, 2022.

EGU22-8367 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Continuous measurement of carbon isotopic composition in soil gases at Cumbre Vieja volcano: a new frontier in volcano monitoring 

María Asensio-Ramos, Eleazar Padrón, José Barrancos, Pedro A. Hernández, Gladys V. Melián, Fátima Rodríguez, Germán D. Padilla, and Nemesio M. Pérez

In October 2017, two remarkable seismic swarms interrupted a 46-year seismic silence in Cumbre Vieja volcanic system, La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain. As a response to this seismic unrest episode, INVOLCAN strengthened the volcano monitoring in the island with the installation of a new automatic geochemical station in the municipality of Fuencaliente (LPG08) in the southern part of the island, which included a Delta RayTM Isotope Ratio Infrared Spectrometer (Thermo Fisher Scientific), to measure the content and isotopic composition (δ13C-CO2) of the soil gas CO2 using a PVC trap buried in the soil at 40 cm depth and transporting the gas through a polyamide pipe. After different seismic swarms occurred in the following years, a volcanic eruption started in Cumbre Vieja on September 19, 2021, lasting 85 days and 8 hours, the longest historical eruption in the island. On September 22, 2021, INVOLCAN installed an additional automatic geochemical station in the municipality of Los Llanos de Aridane (LPG10, around 5 km far from the eruption site) in the western part of the island, including another DeltaRayTM analyzer. In this work, we show the results from August 2020 to December 2021 measured at LPG08, and from September 2021 to January 2021 measured at LPG10. LPG08 data showed a range of δ13C-CO2 from -24.3 to -17.9‰ vs. VPDB (this last value just before the eruption started), with an average value of -20.9‰, during the study period. A clearly increasing trend to less negative values of δ13C-CO2 was detected from the beginning of 2021 to the moment when the eruption started, showing an increasing magmatic component in the soil CO2 measured, which was corroborated by plotting δ13C-CO2 vs. 1/[CO2] mean monthly values. During and after the eruptive period, the values showed a decreasing trend. Regarding LPG10, the values ranged from -18.8 to -7.3‰ vs. VPDB, with a mean value of -13.4‰. In this case, a general decrease trend of the δ13C-CO2 values to more negative values was observed after the eruption finished, while mean monthly values in the δ13C-CO2 vs. 1/[CO2] plot showed a shift from values ​​with a higher contribution of deep-seated CO2 at the beginning of the eruption to values ​​with a lower contribution at its end. This data demonstrates that the continuous measuring of carbon isotopic composition in soil gases before, during and after a volcanic eruption constitutes a powerful new tool for volcano monitoring.

How to cite: Asensio-Ramos, M., Padrón, E., Barrancos, J., Hernández, P. A., Melián, G. V., Rodríguez, F., Padilla, G. D., and Pérez, N. M.: Continuous measurement of carbon isotopic composition in soil gases at Cumbre Vieja volcano: a new frontier in volcano monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8367, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8367, 2022.

EGU22-9104 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Determination of eruption source parameters of the 2011-2013 and February 2021 Etna’s paroxysms using multi-sensor strategies. 

Valentin Freret-Lorgeril, Costanza Bonadonna, Daniele Carbone, Stefano Corradini, Franck Donnadieu, Lorenzo Guerrieri, Lucia Gurioli, Giorgio Lacanna, Jonathan Lemus, Frank Silvio Marzano, Luigi Mereu, Luca Merucci, Luigi Passarelli, Maurizio Ripepe, Eduardo Rossi, Simona Scollo, and Dario Stelitano

The determination of Eruptive Source Parameters (ESPs) is crucial especially for very active volcanoes whose eruptive intensity can vary significantly. In this aim, new strategies are being developed to determine in near real time the total erupted mass (TEM), total grain-size distribution (TGSD) and plume height from ground sampling and remote sensing methods. Since 2011, Etna volcano has produced about 100 paroxysmal episodes characterized by the emission of fountain-fed tephra plumes whose heights reached up to 15 km (above sea level). In this work, we present multi-sensor strategies based on data acquired by the complementary set of remote sensing systems available at Etna. In fact, multi-sensor strategies may help to refine and assess the uncertainty of ESP estimates made by individual sensors, which can present various limitations such as narrow field of views (e.g., visible imagery) and/or low temporal resolution (e.g., satellite-based infrared). First, we show how the combination between tephra-fallout deposit and satellite-based estimates, along with numerical modelling, can help to refine estimates of TEM and TGSD, especially for weak explosive eruption such as the 29 August 2011 paroxysm. We use the model TEPHRA2 and compute synthetic data of ground accumulation to successfully fill significant sampling gaps in the tephra-fallout deposits. Moreover, we find that the Rosin-Rammler equation can be used to inform on missing part of the TGSD, including the tail of very fine ash also detected by satellite-based platforms. Additionally, we compare all estimates of Mass Eruption Rates, Plume height and grain-size distributions made by all available methods including Doppler radar detection, visible and infrared imagery, infrasound arrays, gravimetric signals and tephra-fallout deposit sampling. Accordingly, based on each sensor limitation and capacities, we obtain new constraints on ESP estimates acquired during several paroxysms between 2011-2013 and February 2021. We also bring new insights into the differences and complementarities that exist between the available remote sensing methods, especially in the case of future eruptive events at Mount Etna.

How to cite: Freret-Lorgeril, V., Bonadonna, C., Carbone, D., Corradini, S., Donnadieu, F., Guerrieri, L., Gurioli, L., Lacanna, G., Lemus, J., Marzano, F. S., Mereu, L., Merucci, L., Passarelli, L., Ripepe, M., Rossi, E., Scollo, S., and Stelitano, D.: Determination of eruption source parameters of the 2011-2013 and February 2021 Etna’s paroxysms using multi-sensor strategies., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9104, 2022.

EGU22-9167 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Fumarolic degassing dynamics revealed by coupled seismo-acoustic observation (Pisciarelli, Campi Flegrei Caldera, Italy) 

Dario Delle Donne, Massimo Orazi, Lucia Nardone, Francesco Liguoro, Ciro Buonocunto, Stefano Caliro, Antonio Caputo, Flora Giudicepietro, Rosario Peluso, Giovanni Scarpato, Anna Tramelli, and Lucia Pappalardo

Hydrothermal activity is a natural manifestation of volcanic degassing at calderas, testified by the presence of fumarolic fields, boiling pools, steaming ground and soil diffuse degassing, which are of interest for volcano monitoring and surveillance as they can be related to the magma dynamics within the caldera reservoirs. Campi Flegrei (Italy) is a half submerged resurgent caldera with a nested structure located at the western edge of the bay of Naples. Since its last eruption in 1538, several episodes of ground uplift accompanied by seismic swarms and intense degassing have been reported. The last uplift phase started in 2005 and is still ongoing. The Pisciarelli fumarolic field is a key area of the Campi Flegrei caldera where a continuous and vigorous degassing of hydrothermal fluids, of magmatic origin, takes place. Such fumarolic degassing is associated with a persistent harmonic tremor showing within the last decade an increasing amplitude trend that correlates well with the geochemical and geodetic unrest indicators of the caldera. In the framework of the DPC-INGV 2012-2021 Agreement and the LOVE-CF Project, we investigated the seismo-acoustic wavefield produced by fumarolic degassing with the aim of characterizing the source process that produces the harmonic tremor, and to propose a potential seismo-acoustic based tool to estimate the fumarolic gas fluxes in real time.  At this aim, we performed a series of temporary geophysical experiments with the deployment of 4-element small aperture seismo-acoustic arrays equipped, at each array element, by a short-period three-component seismometer and a broadband infrasonic pressure sensor. We show that the harmonic tremor source is located within the fumarolic field at shallow depth (<100m) and is strongly controlled by the dynamics of the water level within the fumarolic conduits. We detected for the first time the nearly continuous acoustic wavefield produced by Pisciarelli’s degassing activity. We recognize two distinct acoustic sources that are active at the same time and associated with 1) the intense bubbling from a water pool and with 2) the over-pressurized vapour degassing from the fumarolic vents. Integration between acoustic and seismic observation allowed us to propose a potential mechanism for tremor generation through a bubble collapse as soon as the volcanic gas approaches the earth surface while ascending through the conduit. Coupled acoustic and seismic observation has brought to a better understanding on the dynamics of fumarolic degassing at Campi Flegrei, paving the way to the design of an innovative tool for the real time monitoring of the fumarolic degassing. This will improve our capability to assess the volcanic risk for the Campi Flegrei Caldera, as any changes in fumarolic degassing may be related to a change in the on-going unrest dynamics. 

How to cite: Delle Donne, D., Orazi, M., Nardone, L., Liguoro, F., Buonocunto, C., Caliro, S., Caputo, A., Giudicepietro, F., Peluso, R., Scarpato, G., Tramelli, A., and Pappalardo, L.: Fumarolic degassing dynamics revealed by coupled seismo-acoustic observation (Pisciarelli, Campi Flegrei Caldera, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9167, 2022.

EGU22-9304 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Tracking the evolution of the summit lava dome of Merapi volcano, between 2018-2019, using DEMs obtained from TanDEM-X and Pleiades data 

Shan Gremion, Virginie Pinel, François Beauducel, Tara Shreve, Raditya Putra, Akhmad Solikhin, Agus Budi Santoso, and Hanik Humaida

Located about 30 km North of the city of Yogyakarta on Java island, Merapi is considered one of the most dangerous dome building stratovolcanoes, as about 2 million people live less than 30 km away from the crater. Its recent eruptive activity consists in cyclic effusive growth of viscous lava domes, followed by partial or total destruction of domes. Dome destruction favors gravitational collapses (VEI 2) every 4-5 years, or bigger explosive eruptions (VEI 3-4) every 50-100 years resulting in pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) driven downhill at high velocities that are a major risk for surrounding population. Therefore, it is crucial to assess precisely the location, the shape, the thickness, and the volume of emplaced lava in order to prevent populations from sudden PDCs.

The last major explosive eruption (VEI 3-4) occurred in November 2010, resulting in a horseshoe-shaped crater of 500 m wide and 250 m depth hosting a lava dome shaped like a plateau. Within the crater, a new dome appeared on 11 August 2018 and was partially destroyed as of late 2019. In this study, we take advantage of 2 high resolution remote-sensing datasets, Pléiades (optical acquisitions in tri-stereo mode, 1 m resolution) and TanDEM-X (radar acquisitions in StripMap mode, 2 m resolution), to produce 19 Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) between July 2018 and December 2019. We calculate the difference in elevation between each DEM and a reference DEM derived from Pléiades images acquired in 2013 in order to track the evolution of the dome in the crater between 2018 and 2019. Uncertainties are quantified for each dataset. We show that the DEMs derived from Pléiades (optical) and TanDEM-X (radar) data are consistent with each other and provide good spatio-temporal constraints on the evolution of the dome. Furthermore, the remote-sensing estimate of lava volume is consistent with local drone measurements carried on by BPPTKG at the time of dome growth.

The time period covered by the TanDEM-X data is larger than that covered by the Pléiades acquisitions, allowing coverage of the growth and destruction of the dome. However, the Pléiades data allow us to evidence an accumulation zone below the crater that is not well imaged by TanDEM-X. We show the dome reached 40 meters (+-5 m) high and 0.5 Mm3 (+- 0.1Mm3 ) between August 2018 and February 2019, corresponding to an effusion rate of 3000 m3/day. Its shape was initially radial,then extended asymmetrically to the northwest and southeast from October 2018. From February 2019 onwards, the dome elevation remained constant, but lava was continuously emitted, as evidenced by TanDEM-X amplitude maps. Lava supply was balanced by destabilization southwards downhill in an accumulation zone of 400 meters long and 15 meters (+-5m) high maximum. In late 2019, several minor explosions partially destroyed the center of the dome. This study highlights the strong potential of the combination of TanDEM-X and Pléiades DEMs to quantitatively monitor domes at andesitic stratovolcanoes.

How to cite: Gremion, S., Pinel, V., Beauducel, F., Shreve, T., Putra, R., Solikhin, A., Santoso, A. B., and Humaida, H.: Tracking the evolution of the summit lava dome of Merapi volcano, between 2018-2019, using DEMs obtained from TanDEM-X and Pleiades data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9304, 2022.

EGU22-9711 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

STRALERT: STRain and wArning signaLs in nEar Real-Time at Etna for volcano surveillance operation 

Luigi Carleo, Alessandro Bonaccorso, Gilda Currenti, and Antonino Sicali

The Sacks-Evertson strainmeters are fundamental instruments to monitor deformation of the shallow crust produced by volcanic processes since they can record volumetric strain signals with a nominal high resolution of about 10-11. However, the recorded strain signal is affected by the effects of different disturbing sources such as earth tides, local barometric pressure variations, precipitations and underground water circulation. The disturbing signals (amplitude ranges 10-8-10-7) reduce the signal accuracy and can mask smaller strain transients (10-9-10-8) due to volcano processes [1] preventing thus the correct monitoring of the volcano activity.

The effects of the disturbing sources on the recorded strain signal can be filtered by employing dedicated softwares developed to this scope. However, such programs were not designed to be run automatically and thus cannot be directly employed for near real-time signal filtering. To fill this lack, we developed the software STRALERT (STRain and wArning signaLs in nEar Real-Time) to provide in near real-time both the strain signal recorded by a strainmeter station installed at the Etna volcano and the respective filtered signal to the Surveillance Room of the “Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia – Osservatorio Etneo”. The software embeds a modified version of the program BAYTAP-G [2] for the filtering operation that allows using a set of optimally defined filter parameters as inputs. The accuracy of the strain signal is improved reaching values of ≈10-10 and allowing thus the detection of ultra-small strain changes.

Examples of the output of STRALERT are presented for the 2021 period, when frequent eruptive events took place at the Etna volcano. Significant strain changes are clearly observed during the main lava fountain episodes. Thanks to the good accuracy warranted by STRALERT, it was also possible to unravel tiny strain changes due to weak eruptive activity that would have been completely hidden by the tidal and the pressure variations in the recorded raw signal. Moreover, the filtered signal better shows the onset and the end of the transient strain variations allowing to easily mark the timing of the associated eruptive events. Alert thresholds have been defined on the filtered signals to recognize these transient strain changes and automatically deliver a warning signal for the surveillance operations.     

 

[1] Currenti, G. and Bonaccorso A. (2019). Cyclic magma recharge pulses detected by high-precision strainmeter data: the case of 2017 inter-eruptive activity at Etna volcano, Sci. Rep.-Uk., 9(1), 1–7.

[2] Tamura, Y., T. Sato, M. Ooe and M. Ishiguro (1991). A procedure for tidal analysis with a Bayesian information criterion, Geophys. J. Int., 104(3), 507–516.

How to cite: Carleo, L., Bonaccorso, A., Currenti, G., and Sicali, A.: STRALERT: STRain and wArning signaLs in nEar Real-Time at Etna for volcano surveillance operation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9711, 2022.

EGU22-10458 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Correlation of Wind Speed and Eruption Frequency ofStrokkur Geyser, Iceland 

Shaig Hamzaliyev, Eva P.S. Eibl, Gylfi Páll Hersir, Guðrún Nína Petersen, and Torsten Dahm

A geyser is a multiphase geothermal feature that exhibits frequent, jetting
eruptions of hot water and non-condensable gases such as CO2. In Iceland it
was noted that Strokkur geyser erupts at regular intervals. Following single
eruptions the typical waiting time is for example 3.7 ± 0.9 min. However, we
noted that single eruptions are sometimes followed by an up to 7 min long
gap and are the first ones to investigate this in the context of the weather at
Strokkur.
A local broadband seismic network at Strokkur geyser, Iceland recorded more
than 300000 eruptions during 2017-2018 and 2020-2021. The hourly weather
data was acquired from the Hjardarland meteorological station at a few kilome-
ters distance from Strokkur maintained by the Icelandic Meteorological Office.
First we calculate the waiting time after eruptions and to make it comparable
with the hourly weather data we calculate hourly means. First we used a sim-
ple pearson correlation to calculate the correlation in different time windows.
As the time window increased the correlation between the waiting time and
wind speed increased. No substantial increase in the correlation coefficients was
visible for window lengths of more than 8 hours. So we chose an 8 hour long
time window for the further analysis. We compare the averaged waiting time
after eruptions, with wind speed, temperature, air pressure and humidity. To
understand the relation more deeply, we plot each weather parameter vs. the
waiting time average and fit linear and quadratic functions to the data. We
find a strong correlation with the wind speed and minor anticorrelation with
temperature and humidity. After calculating residuals the results indicate that
there is a quadratic relation between the waiting time and wind speed. This
highlights the sensitivity of the pool geyser with respect to environmental factors
interfering with the heat balance of the system.

How to cite: Hamzaliyev, S., Eibl, E. P. S., Hersir, G. P., Petersen, G. N., and Dahm, T.: Correlation of Wind Speed and Eruption Frequency ofStrokkur Geyser, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10458, 2022.

EGU22-10482 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Variations of Stromboli activity related to the 2019 paroxysmal phase revealed by SOM clustering of seismo-acoustic data and its comparison with video recordings and GBInSAR measurements 

Flora Giudicepietro, Sonia Calvari, Luca D'Auria, Federico Di Traglia, Lukas Layer, Giovanni Macedonio, Teresa Caputo, Walter De Cesare, Gaetana Ganci, Marcello Martini, Massimo Orazi, Rosario Peluso, Giovanni Scarpato, Laura Spina, Teresa Nolesini, Nicola Casagli, Anna Tramelli, and Antonietta M. Esposito

Two paroxysmal explosions occurred on Stromboli in the summer of 2019 (July 3 and August 28). The first of these explosions resulted in the death of one person. Furthermore, an effusive phase began on July 3 and lasted until August 30, 2019. This dangerous eruptive phase of Stromboli was not preceded by evident variations in the geophysical parameters routinely monitored, therefore the volcano was considered to be in a state of normal activity.

To investigate the precursors of the 2019 eruptive crisis and explain the absence of variations in the parameters routinely monitored, we analyzed the seismo-acoustic signals with an unsupervised neural network capable of discovering hidden structures of the data. We clustered about 14,200 seismo-acoustic events recorded in 10 months (November 15, 2018 - September 15, 2019) using a Self-Organizing Map (SOM). Then we compared the clustering result with the images of visible and thermal monitoring cameras, that were installed and managed by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy, and with the Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar displacement measurements of the summit area of the volcano recorded by BGInSAR devices, which were installed and managed by Università Degli Studi di Firenze, Italy.

The SOM analysis of the seismo-acoustic features associated with the selected dataset of explosions allowed us to recognize three main clusters in the period November 15, 2018 - September 15, 2019. We named these three clusters Red, Blue, and Green. The analysis of a subset of the selected explosions (approximately 180 events) through the videos of the visible and thermal monitoring cameras allowed us to associate distinct explosive types to the three main seismo-acoustic clusters. In particular, the cluster Red was associated with explosions characterized by well collimated oriented jets of ~ 200 m height, which eject incandescent ballistics and produce a significant infrasonic transient. The cluster Blue was associated with gas explosions with a height of 10 - 20 m and with little or no ash and pyroclastic fragment ejection. These types of explosions may not be detected by the camera recordings and infrasonic sensors. On the contrary, they are well recorded in the VLP seismic signals (filtered in the 0.05 - 0.5 Hz frequency band). The cluster Green includes explosions characterized by the emission of incandescent spatter-like fragments, with a wide range of ejection angles and hemispherical shape. The explosions of the cluster Red are mainly generated in the NE vent region, whereas the explosions of clusters Blue and Green are generally located in the central and SW vent regions.

Comparing these results with the temporal evolution of the displacement of the summit area measured by the GBInSAR device, we discovered that the variations of the eruptive style that were highlighted by the SOM clustering of the seismic-acoustic features are recognizable in the ground deformation temporal pattern. Our findings are relevant for the improvement of monitoring of volcanoes with persistent activity and volcano early warning.

How to cite: Giudicepietro, F., Calvari, S., D'Auria, L., Di Traglia, F., Layer, L., Macedonio, G., Caputo, T., De Cesare, W., Ganci, G., Martini, M., Orazi, M., Peluso, R., Scarpato, G., Spina, L., Nolesini, T., Casagli, N., Tramelli, A., and Esposito, A. M.: Variations of Stromboli activity related to the 2019 paroxysmal phase revealed by SOM clustering of seismo-acoustic data and its comparison with video recordings and GBInSAR measurements, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10482, 2022.

EGU22-10487 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Comparing satellite and ground-based measurements of low-lying SO2 plumes during the Kilauea 2018 and 2020 eruptions 

Juliette Delbrel, Mike Burton, Catherine Hayer, Ben Esse, and Matthew Varnam

Ground and satellite SO2 measurements have been extensively compared for high altitude volcanic emissions but far less for grounded plumes. The 2018 and 2020 Kilauea eruptions offered perfect opportunities to compare our TROPOMI results with ground measurements. Not only is Kilauea a very well monitored volcano, so the ground measurements are abundant and reliable, the SO2 plumes were big enough to be picked up by satellite. We compared the results to assess the efficacy of TROPOMI as a remote sensing tool applied at low-lying SO2 plumes. We concluded that the fluxes for both agreed provided the wind speed is the same for both. Remote sensing is therefore an important tool for effusive eruption monitoring and could be used on its own at remote volcanoes where ground instruments are sparse or lacking.

How to cite: Delbrel, J., Burton, M., Hayer, C., Esse, B., and Varnam, M.: Comparing satellite and ground-based measurements of low-lying SO2 plumes during the Kilauea 2018 and 2020 eruptions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10487, 2022.

EGU22-11325 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Water Fountain Speed and Height at Strokkur Geyser, Iceland, derived from Video Camera Data 

Sandeep Karmacharya, Eva P. S. Eibl, Alina Shevchenko, Thomas Walter, and Gylfi Páll Hersir

Strokkur geyser in Iceland is located in the Haukadalur valley, Iceland. It exhibits frequent, jetting eruptions of hot water and non-condensable gases such as CO2. In earlier studies we found that Strokkur geyser erupts at regular intervals and passes through typical phases in an eruptive cycle. This eruptive cycle consists of the eruption, conduit refilling with water, gas accumulation in a bubble trap and regular bubble collapses at depth in the conduit. In this presentation we focus on the blue bulge that forms at the beginning of an eruption and the water fountain itself.

To study this, we use video camera data from 2017 and 2020 in comparison with a local broadband seismic network. We assess the bulge height, fountain height, the bulge rising speed, water fountain rising speed and the associated seismic amplitude. Particularly, ImageJ with the MtrackJ plugin was used to assess the bulge height and fountain height. We find that upto 0.5 m high water bulge forms within 0.7 s at an average speed of 0.6 m/s. Water is then expelled into the air at a speed of 10 m/s reaching heights of up to 40 m. We compare the speeds measured on the surface with (i) expected rising speeds of gas bubbles in water given a certain diameter and (ii) migration speeds derived from migrating seismic source locations. We discuss the derived height with respect to seismic amplitudes to constrain the tremor generation and to finally assess whether the seismic amplitude (e. g. RMS) has any predictive power when it comes to eruption forecasting.

How to cite: Karmacharya, S., Eibl, E. P. S., Shevchenko, A., Walter, T., and Hersir, G. P.: Water Fountain Speed and Height at Strokkur Geyser, Iceland, derived from Video Camera Data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11325, 2022.

EGU22-11583 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Seismic signals of crater instability at Oldoinyo Lengai volcano, Tanzania 

Georg Rümpker, Ayoub Kaviani, Amani Laizer, Miriam Reiss, and Emmanuel Kazimoto

Oldoinyo Lengai in the North Tanzanian Divergence is one of the few highly active volcanoes in Africa. Its eruptive cycle is characterized by effusions of carbonatite lava and severe explosions. The most recent of these occurred in 2007 and left a circular crater nearly 400 wide and approximately 100 m deep. The crater is currently being filled with new lava which solidifies and has formed several characteristic hornitos. In 2019, we set up a temporary seismic network of 10 short-period stations, equipped with 4.5 Hz geophones, surrounding the crater area at altitudes between about 1990 and 2885 m to monitor the eruptive activity of the volcano. Seven of the stations were recovered in February 2020. The retrieval of the remaining stations was delayed due travel restrictions caused by the pandemic. However, in Sept. 2021, two of the missing stations were returned from the volcano. Due to the limited battery capacity, recordings were restricted to a period of about five weeks between 14/09 and 23/10/2019. Analysis of the data shows tremor activity and more than 80 distinct recordings of high-frequency seismic signals in the immediate vicinity of the network. However, the recordings lack clear S-wave arrivals, and the station configuration is unfavorable for the application of classical localization techniques based on iterative inversion. We, therefore, apply a grid-search approach based on a Bayesian formulation which also accounts for the topography and shape of the volcanic edifice. The results show that the events are located within or close to the circular crater rim. We argue that the events are caused by sliding segments of the crater wall which have become gravitationally unstable, possibly due to magmatic undermining. The interpretation is supported by surface observations of opening cracks at the outer base of the crater rim.

How to cite: Rümpker, G., Kaviani, A., Laizer, A., Reiss, M., and Kazimoto, E.: Seismic signals of crater instability at Oldoinyo Lengai volcano, Tanzania, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11583, 2022.

EGU22-12106 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Determining the vertical scale in videos of lava fountains from gravitational acceleration of single clasts at their zenith 

Ariane Loisel, Ed Llewellin, Caroline Tisdale, and Bruce Houghton

Videography is a popular tool for monitoring and characterising volcanic eruptions. Video records of lava fountaining episodes allow us to infer eruption parameters such as fountain heights, exit velocities, and pulse durations and frequencies, which may inform us on the subsurface processes that operate within the sub-volcanic plumbing system. However, the evolving shape and size of the natural features surrounding eruptive vent make it difficult to convert pixels in an image to meters in reality, due to the lack of fixed reference points with which to compare dimensions. Here we present a new method for determining the vertical scale in videos of lava fountains. We measure the vertical pixel-position of clasts near their zenith, over successive frames, and convert this to an acceleration. By assuming that the only force acting on single clasts near their zenith is gravity, we use the clast motion to determine the scale – mapping pixels to metres. Geometric considerations around the viewing angle and lens distortions are discussed and corrected for. We validate this method with laboratory experiments using water fountains and vertically projected light plastic balls, which act as analogues for lava fountains and single clasts, respectively. An example of field application is then provided from the 2018 fissure eruption at Kilauea (Hawaii, USA). This approach will be useful to physical volcanologists for monitoring the dynamics of eruptions that produce fountains and/or ballistics from video records, which are becoming increasingly available both from scientific teams and from a wider community of tourists and volcano-enthusiasts.

How to cite: Loisel, A., Llewellin, E., Tisdale, C., and Houghton, B.: Determining the vertical scale in videos of lava fountains from gravitational acceleration of single clasts at their zenith, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12106, 2022.

EGU22-12184 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Magma chamber imaged beneath an arc volcano 

Kajetan Chrapkiewicz, Michele Paulatto, Joanna Morgan, Benjamin Heath, Emilie Hooft, Paraskevi Nomikou, Constantinos Papazachos, Florian Schmid, Michael Warner, and Douglas Toomey
Arc volcanoes are underlain by complex systems of molten-rock reservoirs ranging from melt-poor mush zones to melt-rich magma chambers. Petrological and satellite data indicate that eruptible magma chambers form in the topmost few kilometres of the crust. However, no such a chamber has ever been imaged unambiguously, suggesting that large chambers responsible for caldera-forming eruptions are too short-lived to capture. Here we use a high-resolution imaging method based on finite-length seismic waveforms to detect a small, high-melt-fraction magma chamber embedded in a melt reservoir extending from ~2 to at least 4 km b.s.l. beneath Kolumbo – a submarine volcano near Santorini, Greece. The chamber coincides with the termination point of the recent earthquake swarms, and may be a missing link between a deeper melt reservoir and the high-temperature hydrothermal system venting at the crater floor. Though too small to be detected by standard seismic tomography, the chamber is large enough to threaten the nearby islands with tsunamigenic eruptions. Our results suggest that similar reservoirs (relatively small but high melt-fraction) may have gone undetected, and are yet to be discovered, at other active volcanoes.

How to cite: Chrapkiewicz, K., Paulatto, M., Morgan, J., Heath, B., Hooft, E., Nomikou, P., Papazachos, C., Schmid, F., Warner, M., and Toomey, D.: Magma chamber imaged beneath an arc volcano, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12184, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12184, 2022.

EGU22-12319 | Presentations | GMPV9.5

Volcanic harmonic tremors during a non-eruptive event, Torfajokull volcano, Iceland 

Joana Martins, Elmer Ruigrok, and Andrew Hooper

Harmonic tremor, ground vibrations captured by seismometers oscillating in different frequencies, has been widely identified as a result of distinct physical processes. In volcanic areas, the physical processes to explain the gliding spectral lines are usually identified preceding/accompanying eruptions. Less is known about harmonic tremor that occurs in active volcanic areas but does not end in an eruption.

 

In this study we analyse a harmonic tremor signal with a spectral behaviour that, to our knowledge, has not previously been observed. We observed the harmonic signal in the vertical component spectrogram of 22 out of the 24 broad-band seismometers placed around and within Torfajökull caldera, in Iceland. The discovery was made while estimating a tomographic image of the volcano using a network of seismometers operating for nearly 3 months in summer 2005. a function of frequency and time, the detected harmonic signal has a parabola structure (or a ‘V’ shape) with a fundamental frequency and a few overtones exhibiting higher energy. The fundamental mode glides upward from frequencies below 1Hz up to and above 25 Hz and can take up to 10h from the minimum to the maximum achieved frequency. A few low and high-frequency tremors also occurred during the gliding of the harmonic signal.

 

In an exploratory phase, we ruled out phenomena of anthropogenic (drilling, helicopters) and natural non-volcanic origins (colliding ice structures, tidal, magnetic field, rain, wind, aurora) due to the time and frequency characteristics of the signal. We then analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of the harmonic tremors (signal of interest). Automatic detection was leading to a large number of false positives and true negatives, therefore we performed a manual classification of daily spectrograms to detect the ‘V’ shaped signal. We select the events where the high amplitude spectra were reaching below 2 Hz. The occurrence and strength of the harmonic signal are variable in time and space. The spatial density of signal occurrence does not correlate with the location of the source of subsidence we estimate from InSAR; the detected subsidence of ~13 mm/year is confined to the caldera outline while the harmonic events were registered mostly at seismometers outside the volcano caldera. The detected signal does correlate well with areas of low topography and identified low-velocity S-wave anomalies from the derived ambient noise seismic tomography model using the same seismic network. While the correlation with low topography may indicate preferred water paths, the low S-wave velocity anomalies may indicate the presence of a heat source, leading to a water-magma interaction hypothesis. Finally, we tested for the hypothesis of a resonance set up in magmatic conduits after magma-water interaction and changes in speed flow through conduits assuming the geometries of dykes, tubes and cracks.

How to cite: Martins, J., Ruigrok, E., and Hooper, A.: Volcanic harmonic tremors during a non-eruptive event, Torfajokull volcano, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12319, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12319, 2022.

EGU22-2674 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Swarm seismicity illuminates stress transfer prior to the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland 

Tomas Fischer, Pavla Hrubcová, Ali Salama, Jana Doubravová, Josef Horálek, Thorbjorg Agustsdottir, Egill Gudnason, and Hersir Gylfi

 

The 6 months long effusive volcanic eruption of 19 March 2021 at Fagradalsfjall, Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland was preceded by an intensive earthquake swarm lasting one month, with several earthquakes exceeding ML 5. We analyse seismic data recorded by the Reykjanet local seismic network to trace the processes leading up to the eruption in order to understand the relation between seismic activity and magma accumulation.

 

The precise relocations show that the seismicity is located in two clusters in the depth range of 1-6 km. A NE-SW trending cluster maps the dyke propagation; a WSW-ENE trending cluster follows the plate boundary. In comparison, we relocated the preceding earthquake swarms of 2017, 2019 and 2020 and found that they form two branches along the plate boundary, coinciding with the 2021 WSW-ENE trending cluster. These branches form a stepover of about 1 km offset, forming a pull-apart basin structure at the intersection with the dyke. This is the exact location of the eruption site, which shows that magma erupted at the place of crustal weakening.

 

The 2021 earthquake swarm initiated by a ML 5.3 earthquake on 24 February, which triggered the aftershocks along the plate boundary and in the dyke segment, both occurring in an area of elevated Coulomb stress. The swarm seismicity shows complex propagation of the dyke, which started at its northern end, migrated south-westward and then jumped back to the central part where the effusive eruption eventually took place. The strike-slip focal mechanisms of the larger magnitude events, with N-S striking fault planes, are interpreted as right-lateral antithetic Riedel shears that accommodate the left lateral slip along the plate boundary. The fact that both seismic and magmatic activities occur at the same location shows that the past seismic activity weakened the crust in the area of the eruption site. We show that the ML 5.3 earthquake on 24 February 2021 triggered the whole seismic swarm and perturbed the magma pocket which eventually led to the 19 March Fagradalsfjall eruption.

 

How to cite: Fischer, T., Hrubcová, P., Salama, A., Doubravová, J., Horálek, J., Agustsdottir, T., Gudnason, E., and Gylfi, H.: Swarm seismicity illuminates stress transfer prior to the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2674, 2022.

EGU22-3140 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Crater Rim Collapses Affect the Lava Fountaining Frequency during the Fagradalsfjall Eruption, Iceland 2021 

Eva P. S. Eibl, Thorvaldur Thórðarson, Ármann Höskuldsson, Egill Á. Gudnason, Thoralf Dietrich, Gylfi Páll Hersir, and Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir

The Fagradalsfjall eruption on the Reykjanes peninsula, Iceland, lasted from 19 March to 18 September 2021. While it continuously effused lava at the beginning, it opened up 7 further vents in April and focused the activity from late April on Vent 5. Surprisingly the continuous effusion changed to pulses of lava effusion (as lava fountains or vigorous overflow) between 2 May and 14 June that was seismically recorded as tremor pulses. We examined the frequency of 6939 lava fountaining pulses based on seismological data recorded at NUPH at the SE corner of Núpshlíðarháls 5.5 km southeast of the active vent.

We subdivide the time period into 6 episodes based on sudden changes in the pattern. In this presentation we present the different fountaining patterns and systematic changes and discuss their origin. Our comparison with vent height, vent stability and lava effusion style, led us to conclude that the changes in the pulsing behaviour might be caused by collapses from the crater walls. The system is clearly unstable and evolving with time.

How to cite: Eibl, E. P. S., Thórðarson, T., Höskuldsson, Á., Gudnason, E. Á., Dietrich, T., Hersir, G. P., and Ágústsdóttir, T.: Crater Rim Collapses Affect the Lava Fountaining Frequency during the Fagradalsfjall Eruption, Iceland 2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3140, 2022.

EGU22-3149 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Shallow conduit processes and sulfur release in the phreatomagmatic stages of the 1211 CE Younger Stampar eruption, Iceland 

Jacqueline Grech Licari, William M. Moreland, Thorvaldur Thordarson, Bruce F. Houghton, and Enikö Bali

The 2021 Fagradalsfjall basaltic eruption in Iceland was effusive, but a different eruptive scenario could have unfolded if its location had been shifted a few kilometres to the south to an offshore setting. Namely a shallow marine event similar to the phreatomagmatic stages of the 1211 CE Younger Stampar eruption. The 1211 CE eruption was the initial event of the 1211-1240 Reykjanes Fires and its first stage was a Surtseyan eruption just offshore of the point of Reykjanes. It constructed the ~0.006 km3 Vatnsfellsgígur tuff cone that featured a short-lived dry phase towards the end. A second phreatomagmatic stage took place ca. 500 m off the current Reykjanes coastline to produce the larger Karlsgígur tuff cone (~0.044 km3), with a combined cone/tephra volume of ~0.15 km3. Later, the activity migrated onshore onto a 4km-long fissure with an effusive eruption that generated the Yngri-Stampar crater row and associated lava flow fields. The Vatnsfellsgígur and Karlsgígur tuff cones consist of alternating pyroclastic surge-tephra fall units, intercalated with units formed by simultaneous deposition from surge and fall. The 3.5m-thick Vatnsfellsgígur section is composed of 8 units, whereas the 5.5m-thick Karlsgígur section consists of 9 units. Chemical analysis reveals that the cones are tholeiitic basalt (MgO 6.0-7.5 wt%) with sporadic olivine phenocrysts (Fo78 to Fo84) and dispersed plagioclase macrocrysts with core composition of An87 to An91. Two compositionally distinct groups of plagioclase-hosted melt inclusions are identified: one with composition comparable to the host magma and another more primitive in composition with lower FeO, TiO2 and K2O and higher MgO (ranging from 9-10 wt% and 9-11.5 wt% for Vatnsfellsgígur and Karlsgígur, respectively). This suggests that whilst upper crustal storage zones may have facilitated melt evolution, the erupting magma originated from a deeper, crystal-mush-dominated storage zone. Original and residual sulfur contents of ~2221.7 ± 150 ppm and ~966.2 ± 120 ppm respectively, indicate that ~0.658 ± 0.034 Tg of SO2 were released into the atmosphere during these two stages of phreatomagmatic activity. Moreover, vesicularity measurements on lapilli reveal unimodal, left-skewed vesicularity distributions with modes of 90% and 95% and a range of ~40% for Vatnsfellsgígur and Karlsgígur, respectively. These results indicate that magma had gone through vesicle nucleation to free growth and coalescence and probably initial dry (magmatic) fragmentation prior to contact with external water. The evidence strongly suggests that expansion of exsolved magmatic gases was the driver of explosivity and that the role of external water in these phreatomagmatic stages of the 1211 CE eruption was confined to secondary quench granulation. The analysed juvenile clasts also displayed sharp-bound domains of contrasting vesicularity with boundaries that cross-cut the clast margins. This confirms early mingling of melt batches with different histories of ascent and/or stalling in the shallow conduit. Given such heterogeneity, regions of contrasting vesicularity were analysed separately to construct two vesicle size and number distribution (VSD/VND) datasets. Results from the ongoing micro-textural and additional analysis of volatile degassing shall also be presented here.

How to cite: Grech Licari, J., Moreland, W. M., Thordarson, T., Houghton, B. F., and Bali, E.: Shallow conduit processes and sulfur release in the phreatomagmatic stages of the 1211 CE Younger Stampar eruption, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3149, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3149, 2022.

EGU22-5649 | Presentations | GMPV9.1 | Highlight

Deep seismicity preceding and during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland 

Tim Greenfield, Thomas Winder, Nicholas Rawlinson, Esme Southern, Conor Bacon, Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir, Robert S. White, Bryndis Brandsdottir, John Maclennan, Josef Horalek, Egill Árni Gudnason, and Gylfi Páll Hersir

Using a dense network of seismometers located on the Reykjanes Peninsula of Iceland we image a cluster of earthquakes located at a depth of 10-15 km, beneath the brittle-ductile transition and active before and during the Fagradalsfjall eruption. The deep seismicity has markedly different properties to those earthquakes located in the upper, brittle crust with a lower frequency content and a high b-value suggesting that fluids and/or high temperature gradients could be involved in their initiation. Detailed relocation of the deep seismicity reveals that the locus of the activity shifts southwest after the onset of the eruption, suggesting that although the location of the deep seismicity is unlikely to be the source for the magma which erupted, nevertheless the eruption and the deep earthquakes are linked. We interpret the deep earthquakes to be induced by the intrusion of magma into the lower crust. In such an interpretation, the intruded region could be offset from the conduit that transports the magma from the source region near the base of the crust to the surface.  

How to cite: Greenfield, T., Winder, T., Rawlinson, N., Southern, E., Bacon, C., Ágústsdóttir, T., White, R. S., Brandsdottir, B., Maclennan, J., Horalek, J., Gudnason, E. Á., and Hersir, G. P.: Deep seismicity preceding and during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5649, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5649, 2022.

EGU22-8304 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

An overview of the geochemistry and petrology of the mantle-sourced Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland 

Edward Marshall, Maja Rasmussen, Saemundur Halldorsson, Simon Matthews, Eemu Ranta, Olgeir Sigmarsson, Jóhann Robin, Jaime Barnes, Enikö Bali, Alberto Caracciolo, Guðmundur Guðfinnsson, and Geoffrey Mibei

The recent eruption of the Fagradalsfjall complex in the Reykjanes Peninsula of Iceland represents incompletely mixed basaltic magma directly erupted from a sub-crustal storage region. The eruption comprises olivine tholeiite lava with whole rock MgO between 8.7 and 10.1 wt%. The macrocryst cargo comprises olivine up to Fo90, plagioclase up to An89, and Cr-rich clinopyroxene up to Mg# 89. Gabbro and anorthosite xenoliths are rare. Olivine-plagioclase-augite-melt (OPAM) barometry of the groundmass glass from tephra collected from 28th April to 6th May yield high equilibration pressures and suggest that this eruption is originally sourced from a deep (0.48±0.06 GPa) storage zone at the crust-mantle boundary.

 

Over the course of the eruption, Fagradalsfjall lavas have changed significantly in source signature. The first erupted lavas (mid-March) were more depleted (K2O/TiO2 ­= 0.14, La/Sm = 2.1, 87Sr/86Sr = 0.703108, 143Nd/144Nd = 0.513017, 206Pb/204Pb = 18.730) and similar in composition to basalts previously erupted on the Reykjanes Peninsula. As the eruption continued, the lavas became increasingly enriched and were most enriched in early May (K2O/TiO2 = 0.27, La/Sm = 3.1, 87Sr/86Sr = 0.703183, 143Nd/144Nd = 0.512949, 206Pb/204Pb = 18.839), having unusual compositions for Reykjanes Peninsula lavas and similar only to enriched Reykjanes melt inclusions. From early May until the end of the eruption (18th September), the lava K2O/TiO2 and La/Sm compositions displayed a sinuous wobble through time at lower amplitude than observed in the early part of the eruption. The enriched lavas produced later in the eruption are more enriched than lavas from Stapafell, a Reykjanes eruption thought to represent the enriched endmember on the Reykjanes. The full range of compositional variation observed in the eruption is large – about 2.5 times the combined variation of all other historic Reykjanes lavas.

 

The major, trace, and radiogenic isotope compositions indicate that binary mixing controls the erupted basalt compositions. The mixing endmembers appear to be depleted Reykjanes melts, and enriched melts with compositions similar to enriched Reykjanes melt inclusions or Snaefellsnes alkali basalts. The physical mechanism of mixing and the structure of the crust-mantle boundary magmatic system is a task for future study.

 

In contrast to the geochemical variations described above, the oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) of the groundmass glass (5.1±0.1‰) has little variation and is lower than MORB (~5.5‰). Olivine phenocrysts δ18O  values range from typical mantle peridotite values (5.1‰) to lower values (4.6‰), with the lower values in close equilibrium with the host melt. Given the crust-mantle boundary source of the eruption, these low δ18O values are unlikely to represent crustal contamination, and are more likely to represent an intrinsically low δ18O mantle beneath the Reykjanes Peninsula.

How to cite: Marshall, E., Rasmussen, M., Halldorsson, S., Matthews, S., Ranta, E., Sigmarsson, O., Robin, J., Barnes, J., Bali, E., Caracciolo, A., Guðfinnsson, G., and Mibei, G.: An overview of the geochemistry and petrology of the mantle-sourced Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8304, 2022.

EGU22-8479 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Basalt production controlled by mantle source fertility at Fagradalsfjall, Iceland 

Olgeir Sigmarsson, Edward W. Marshall, Chantal Bosq, Delphine Auclair, Maja B. Rasmussen, Barbara I. Kleine, Eemu J. Ranta, Simon Matthews, Sæmundur A. Halldórsson, Matthew G. Jackson, Gudmundur H. Gudfinnsson, Enikö Bali, Andri Stefánsson, and Magnús T. Gudmundsson

Mantle melting processes and the characteristics of the source lithologies are mostly derived from basalt compositions of the mid-ocean ridge system and from oceanic islands. However, these basalts are in most cases the products of crustal processes resulting from magma storage, mixing, differentiation and crustal interaction. In Iceland, magma mixing and homogenization in thoroughly stirred magma reservoirs appear to be the norm, leading to restricted variations of Sr and Nd isotope ratio for a given volcanic system. In contrast, more primitive basalts were erupted during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula with a large spread in isotope ratios. A strong negative correlation between Sr and Nd isotopes is observed from ratios that span a range from a depleted mantle composition to values akin to the Icelandic mantle such as that of the basalts of the Grímsvötn volcanic system. The isotope ratios are also correlated with the measured discharge rate during the eruption, with a depleted Sr isotope ratio appearing during the period of low discharge (around 5 m3/s) for the first month and a half of the eruption. In early May, the magma flux doubled and basalts with more radiogenic Sr isotope composition were produced. During the summer 2021, the Sr isotope ratios declined, due to lower proportions of melts from undepleted mantle source in the basalt mixture erupted. Whether the eruption ended when melts from the enriched mantle was exhausted or not remains to be elucidated, but clearly the highest eruption discharge rate resulted from melts of a more fertile mantle source.

The variable proportions of depleted versus enriched melts in the eruption products demonstrate the absence of a magma reservoir in which homogenization could take place, and from which decreasing discharge rate with time would be expected.  Instead, the initially low and steady and then increasing magma extrusion rate measured, strongly indicate direct mantle melt ascent to surface, which is also supported by the primitive mineralogy of the high-MgO basalt produced. Leaky-transform faults on the mid-ocean ridge system are characterized by eruptions of primitive basalts on intra-transform spreading centres (e.g. Garrett and Siqueiros fracture zones in the East Pacific). The Fagradalsfjall complex appears to be of similar nature, and the primitive magma and the important compositional and temporal variations demonstrate the effect of mantle source composition and associated processes on the eruption behaviour, as reflected in the magma discharge rate.

How to cite: Sigmarsson, O., Marshall, E. W., Bosq, C., Auclair, D., Rasmussen, M. B., Kleine, B. I., Ranta, E. J., Matthews, S., Halldórsson, S. A., Jackson, M. G., Gudfinnsson, G. H., Bali, E., Stefánsson, A., and Gudmundsson, M. T.: Basalt production controlled by mantle source fertility at Fagradalsfjall, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8479, 2022.

EGU22-8679 | Presentations | GMPV9.1 | Highlight

Conduits feeding new eruptive vents at Fagradajsfjall, Iceland, mapped by high-resolution ICEYE SAR satellite in a daily repeat orbit 

Vincent Drouin, Valentyn Tolpekin, Michelle Parks, Freysteinn Sigmundsson, Daniel Leeb, Shay Strong, Ásta Rut Hjartardóttir, Halldór Geirsson, Páll Einarsson, and Benedikt Gunnar Ófeigsson

Using ground deformation measurements of high spatial and temporal resolution SAR, the understanding of new vents created during volcanic eruptions can be improved with 3D mapping of the activated shallow magma plumbing system. Interferometric analysis of radar data from ICEYE X-band satellites with daily coherent ground track repeat (GTR) provides unprecedented time series of deformation in relation to the opening of 6 eruptive vents over 26 days in 2021, at Fagradalsfjall, Iceland. Unrest started in this location at the end of February and tens of thousands of earthquakes were recorded during the following four weeks. The seismicity was linked to gradual formation of a magma-filled dike in the crust and triggered seismicity along the plate boundary. On 19 March, an eruptive fissure opened near the center of the dyke. New vents and eruptive fissures opened on the 5th, 7th, 10th, and 13th April. The daily acquisition rate of the ICEYE satellite facilitated the observation of the ground openings associated with each new vents. Each event can be observed individually and with minimal loss of signal caused by new lava emplacement, which would occur if images were acquired at a slower rate. Being able to retrieve deformation near the edge of the fissure ensures that we have the optimal constraints needed for modelling the subsurface magma path. The ICEYE dataset consists of Stripmap acquisitions (30x50km) in the period 3-21 March, and Spotlight acquisitions (5x5 km) from 22 March and onward. Images have a resolution of about 2 m x 3 m, and 0.5 m x 0.25 m, respectively. The descending 1-day interferogram covering each individual event is used to invert for the distributed opening along the dike plane. We find that each fissure was associated with opening of up to 0.5 meters in the topmost 200 m of crust. The conduits propagated vertically at least 50–80 m/h. The new fissure locations were influenced by local conditions and induced stress changes within the shallow crust.

How to cite: Drouin, V., Tolpekin, V., Parks, M., Sigmundsson, F., Leeb, D., Strong, S., Hjartardóttir, Á. R., Geirsson, H., Einarsson, P., and Ófeigsson, B. G.: Conduits feeding new eruptive vents at Fagradajsfjall, Iceland, mapped by high-resolution ICEYE SAR satellite in a daily repeat orbit, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8679, 2022.

EGU22-8804 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Relatively-relocated seismicity during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall dyke intrusion, Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland: Detailed evolution of a lateral dyke, and comparison to Bárðarbunga-Holuhraun 

Esme Olivia Southern, Tim Greenfield, Tom Winder, Þorbjörg Ágústsdóttir, Bryndís Brandsdóttir, Tomas Fischer, Jana Doubravová, Nick Rawlinson, Robert White, Egill Árni Gudnason, Gylfi Páll Hersir, Pavla Hrubcova, and Conor Bacon

The 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption on Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula was preceded by more than 12 months of elevated activity, beginning around November 2019. This dominantly consisted of episodes of intense seismic swarms, but also featured inflationary episodes in both the Svartsengi and Krísuvík volcanic systems. On 24th February 2021, an exceptionally intense episode of seismicity covering the length of the Peninsula marked the initiation of a dyke intrusion, which continued to develop until the 19th of March, when melt first erupted at the surface. The fissure eruption lasted 6 months, ending on 18th September 2021.

During the intrusion, melt first propagated northeast towards Mt Keilir, then to the southwest, eventually forming a 10 km-long dyke. This was marked by more than 80,000 microearthquakes, recorded by a dense local seismic network and detected and located using QuakeMigrate[1].

We present high precision relative relocations of the seismicity, and tightly constrained focal mechanisms of earthquakes which are dominantly located along the base of the dyke. We compare the Fagradalsfjall seismicity to the 2014-2015 Bárðarbunga-Holuhraun intrusion and eruption seismicity [2], in the context of the contrasting tectonic settings, and markedly different precursory activity.

1: Winder, T., Bacon, C., Smith, J., Hudson, T., Greenfield, T. and White, R., 2020. QuakeMigrate: a Modular, Open-Source Python Package for Automatic Earthquake Detection and Location. https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10505850.1

2: Woods, J., Winder, T., White, R. S., and Brandsdóttir, B., 2019. Evolution of a lateral dike intrusion revealed by relatively-relocated dike-induced earthquakes: The 2014–15 Bárðarbunga–Holuhraun rifting event, Iceland. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2018.10.032

How to cite: Southern, E. O., Greenfield, T., Winder, T., Ágústsdóttir, Þ., Brandsdóttir, B., Fischer, T., Doubravová, J., Rawlinson, N., White, R., Gudnason, E. Á., Hersir, G. P., Hrubcova, P., and Bacon, C.: Relatively-relocated seismicity during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall dyke intrusion, Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland: Detailed evolution of a lateral dyke, and comparison to Bárðarbunga-Holuhraun, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8804, 2022.

EGU22-9207 | Presentations | GMPV9.1 | Highlight

Volume, effusion rate, and lava transport during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption: Results from near real-time photogrammetric monitoring 

Gro Pedersen, Joaquin M. C. Belart, Birgir Vilhelm Óskarsson, Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson, Nils Gies, Thórdís Högnadóttir, Ásta Rut Hjartardóttir, Virginie Pinel, Etienne Berthier, Tobias Dürig, Hannah Iona Reynolds, Christpher W. Hamilton, Guðmundur Valsson, Páll Einarsson, Daniel Ben-Yehoshua, Andri Gunnarsson, and Björn Oddsson

The basaltic effusive eruption at Mt. Fagradalsfjall began on March 19, 2021, ending a 781-year hiatus on Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland. At the time of writing (January 7, 2022), no eruptive activity has been observed since September 18, 2021. To monitor key eruption parameters (i.e., effusion rate and volume), near-real time photogrammetric monitoring was performed using a combination of satellite and airborne stereo images.

By late September 2021, 32 near real-time photogrammetric surveys were completed, usually processed within 3–6 hours. The results are a significant achievement in full-scale monitoring of a lava flow-field providing temporal data sets of lava volume, thickness, and effusion rate. This enabled rapid assessment of eruption evolution and hazards to populated areas, important infrastructure, and tourist centers.

The lava pathways and lava advancement were very complex and changeable as the lava filled and spilled from one valley into another and short-term prediction of the timing of overflow from one valley to another proved challenging. Analysis of thickness maps and thickness change maps show that the lava transport into different valleys varied up to 10 m3/s between surveys as lava transport rapidly switched between one valley to another.

By late September 2021, the mean lava thickness exceeded 30 m, covered 4.8 km2 and has a bulk volume of 150 ± 3 × 106 m3. Around the vent the thickness is up to 122 m. The March–September mean effusion rate is 9.5 ± 0.2 m3/s, ranging between 1–8 m3/s in March–April and increasing to 9–13 m3/s in May–September. This is uncommon for recent Icelandic eruptions, where the highest discharge usually occurs in the opening phase. This behavior may have been due to widening of the conduit by thermo-mechanical erosion with time, and not controlled by magma chamber pressure as is most common in the volcanic zones of Iceland.

How to cite: Pedersen, G., Belart, J. M. C., Óskarsson, B. V., Guðmundsson, M. T., Gies, N., Högnadóttir, T., Hjartardóttir, Á. R., Pinel, V., Berthier, E., Dürig, T., Reynolds, H. I., Hamilton, C. W., Valsson, G., Einarsson, P., Ben-Yehoshua, D., Gunnarsson, A., and Oddsson, B.: Volume, effusion rate, and lava transport during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption: Results from near real-time photogrammetric monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9207, 2022.

EGU22-9802 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

The REYKJANET local seismic network ideally placed for capturing the 2021 Fagradalsfjall pre-eruptive seismicity: in operation since 2013 

Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir, Josef Horálek, Egill Árni Gudnason, Jana Doubravová, Gylfi Páll Hersir, Jakub Klicpera, Fridgeir Pétursson, Rögnvaldur Líndal Magnússon, Jiri Málek, Lucia Fojtíková, Tomáš Fischer, Josef Vlček, and Ali Salama

The REYKJANET local seismic network was deployed on the Reykjanes Peninsula, SW Iceland, in 2013; funded by the Czech Academy of Science and supported by Iceland GeoSurvey. The network consists of 15 seismic stations, using Nanometrics Centaur digitizers sampling at a rate of 250 sps with a GPS timestamp. Additionally, 7 stations are equipped with microbarographs. In 2016, REYKJANET was substantially upgraded when short-period seismometers were replaced by Güralp CMG-3ESPC broadband seismometers (eigenperiod T0=30s). The instruments are buried in vaults on concrete pillars and are therefore well coupled with the bedrock. They are powered by batteries recharged by solar and wind power all year round, surviving harsh winter condition and corrosion from geothermal gases. These stations are deployed along the Reykjanes Peninsula, between the Svartsengi and Hengill high temperature geothermal fields, covering an area of about 60x20 km. In the summer of 2021 two new stations were deployed on the eastern part of the Peninsula, each consisting of a Güralp CMG-40T broadband seismometers and a Kinemetrics FBA ES-T EpiSensor also sampling at 250 sps with a GPS timestamp. Since early 2021, data from all REYKJANET stations are streamed in real-time to Iceland GeoSurvey and currently 8 of them are also streamed to the Icelandic Meteorological Office for improved earthquake locations for natural hazard monitoring purposes. Since the deployment of the network in 2013, it has been operated continuously and captured the largest seismic swarms on the Reykjanes Peninsula in 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2021.The REYKJANET network was ideally placed, as the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption occurred right in the central part of the network. Here we present the pre-eruptive seismicity of the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption in comparison to previous seismic swarms.

The maintenance of REYKJANET, data analysis and interpretation are currently done within the NASPMON project (NAtural Seismicity as a Prospecting and MONitoring tool for geothermal energy extraction), funded through EEA Grants and the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic within the KAPPA Programme.

How to cite: Ágústsdóttir, T., Horálek, J., Gudnason, E. Á., Doubravová, J., Hersir, G. P., Klicpera, J., Pétursson, F., Líndal Magnússon, R., Málek, J., Fojtíková, L., Fischer, T., Vlček, J., and Salama, A.: The REYKJANET local seismic network ideally placed for capturing the 2021 Fagradalsfjall pre-eruptive seismicity: in operation since 2013, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9802, 2022.

EGU22-9846 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Temporal Fe-Zn isotopic variations in the chemically heterogeneous Fagradalsfjall eruption, 2021 

Madeleine Stow, Julie Prytulak, Kevin Burton, Geoff Nowell, Edward Marshall, Maja Rasmussen, Simon Matthews, Eemu Ranta, and Alberto Caracciolo

Lavas from the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland, show remarkable, day to month scale temporal variations in trace element and radiogenic isotopic compositions. Changes have been attributed to variation in the depth and degree of melting and/or source lithology, with progressive melting of a deeper, more enriched source as the eruption proceeded [1]. Distinguishing melting processes from source composition can be difficult to untangle using trace elements alone. Radiogenic isotopes are unaffected by the melting processes, but pinpointing lithological variations requires that the radiogenic isotopic compositions of the (unknown) endmembers are distinct and fairly restricted to be able to calculate relative contribution(s) to a lava.

Stable isotopic composition may provide another perspective on the cause of the clear temporal chemical trends in the eruption. For example, it has been proposed that Fe stable isotopes may detect the contribution of distinct mantle lithologies to a lava, due to the contrasting bonding environment of Fe in mantle minerals. Both empirical and theoretical studies show that at equilibrium, pyroxenite should be enriched in heavy Fe isotopes compared to typical mantle peridotite [e.g. 2]. Due to limited (<0.1‰) isotopic fractionation during mantle melting, unevolved basalts should capture this lithological variation. However, more recent theoretical work has argued that unrealistically high proportions of pyroxenite are needed to cause resolvable variations in basalt Fe isotopic composition [3]. Zinc stable isotopes provide a complementary system, with variation in Zn isotopic composition detected between garnet and spinel bearing lithologies [4], and without the added complexities of redox-driven fractionation that may affect Fe isotopes. The basaltic Fagradalsfjall eruption thus provides a unique time series to test whether the changes in trace element chemistry of the erupted lavas is mirrored by Fe-Zn isotopic variation. Variation in degree of melting alone is not expected to cause significant Fe-Zn isotopic fractionation, whereas a change in contribution to the lavas from pyroxene and/or garnet bearing lithologies may be reflected in the Fe-Zn isotopic composition. By combining redox sensitive (Fe) and redox insensitive (Zn) isotope systems we can potentially investigate magmatic processes in terms of the redox evolution of the source. We will present the Fe and Zn isotopic compositions of 15 fresh, glassy basaltic lavas collected during the first 4 months of the eruption. We will discuss the possible cause(s) of isotopic variations and how this adds to our understanding of the Fagradalsfjall eruption, specifically. Finally, this timeseries allows us to re-visit and evaluate the efficacy of using Fe-Zn isotopes to determine variations in mantle lithology.

[1] Marshall et al. (2021), AGU FM Abstract [2] Williams and Bizimis (2014), EPSL, 404, 396-407 [3] Soderman et al. (2021), GCA, 318, 388-414 [4] Wang et al. (2017), GCA, 198, 151-167

How to cite: Stow, M., Prytulak, J., Burton, K., Nowell, G., Marshall, E., Rasmussen, M., Matthews, S., Ranta, E., and Caracciolo, A.: Temporal Fe-Zn isotopic variations in the chemically heterogeneous Fagradalsfjall eruption, 2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9846, 2022.

EGU22-10219 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

A comprehensive model of the precursors leading to the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption 

Ólafur Flóvenz, Rongjiang Wang, Gylfi Páll Hersir, Torsten Dahm, Sebastian Hainzl, Magdalena Vassileva, Vincent Drouin, Sebastian Heimann, Marius Paul Isken, Egill Árni Gudnason, Kristján Ágústsson, Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir, Josef Horálek, Mahdi Motagh, Thomas R Walter, Eleonora Rivalta, Philippe Jousset, Charlotte M Krawczyk, and Claus Milkereit

A period of intense seismicity started more than a year prior to the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption in Iceland. During the same period, repeated cycles of surface uplift and subsidence were observed in the Svartsengi and Krýsuvík high-temperature (HT) fields, about 8-10 km west and east of the eruption site in Fagradalsfjall, respectively. Such an uplift has never been observed during 40 years of surface deformation monitoring of the exploited Svartsengi HT field. However, cycles of uplift followed by subsidence have been observed earlier at the unexploited Krýsuvík HT field.

Shortly after the start of the unrest, a group of scientists from GFZ-Potsdam and ÍSOR installed additional seismometers, used an optical telecommunication cable to monitor the seismicity and performed gravity measurements in the unrest area.

The data was used for multidisciplinary modelling of the pre-eruption processes (see Flóvenz et al, 2022. Cyclical geothermal unrest as a precursor to Iceland's 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption. Nature Geoscience (in revision)). It included a poroelastic model that explains the repeated uplift and subsidence cycles at the Svartsengi HT field, by cyclic fluid intrusions into a permeable aquifer at 4 km depth at the observed brittle-ductile transition (BDT). The model gives a total injected volume of 0.11±0.05 km3. Constraining the intruded material jointly by the deformation and gravity data results in a density of 850±350 kg/m3. A high-resolution seismic catalogue of 39,500 events using the optical cable recordings was created, and the poroelastic model explains very well the observed spatiotemporal seismicity.

The geodetic, gravity, and seismic data are explained by ingression of magmatic CO2 into the aquifer. To explain the behaviour of cyclic fluid injections, a physical feeder-channel model is proposed.

The poroelastic model and the feeder-channel model are combined into a conceptual model that is consistent with the geochemical signature of the erupted magma. It explains the pre-eruption processes and gives estimates of the amount of magma involved.

The conceptual model incorporates a magmatic reservoir at 15-20 km depth, fed by slowly upwelling currents of mantle derived magma. Volatiles released from inflowing enriched magma into the sub-Moho reservoir migrated upwards. The volatiles were possibly trapped for weeks or months at the BDT at ~7 km depth beneath Fagradalsfjall, generating overpressure, but not high enough to lift the overburden (~220 MPa) and cause surface deformation. After reaching a certain limiting overpressure, or when a certain volume had accumulated, the magmatic volatiles were diverted upwards, just below the BDT towards the hydrostatic pressurized aquifer (~ 40 MPa) at 4 km depth at the bottom of the convective HT fields. They passed through the BDT and increased the pressure sufficiently (>110 MPa) to cause the uplift.

The lessons learned enlighten the most important factors to help detect precursory volcanic processes on the Reykjanes Peninsula; including detailed monitoring of seismicity, surface deformation, gravity changes and gas content in geothermal fluids. Furthermore, geophysical exploration of the deeper crust by seismic and resistivity measurements are crucial to map possible melt and possible pathways towards the surface.

How to cite: Flóvenz, Ó., Wang, R., Hersir, G. P., Dahm, T., Hainzl, S., Vassileva, M., Drouin, V., Heimann, S., Isken, M. P., Gudnason, E. Á., Ágústsson, K., Ágústsdóttir, T., Horálek, J., Motagh, M., Walter, T. R., Rivalta, E., Jousset, P., Krawczyk, C. M., and Milkereit, C.: A comprehensive model of the precursors leading to the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10219, 2022.

EGU22-10330 | Presentations | GMPV9.1 | Highlight

Eruptive vent openings during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland, and their relationship with pre-existing fractures 

Ásta Rut Hjartardóttir, Tobias Dürig, Michelle Parks, Vincent Drouin, Vigfús Eyjólfsson, Hannah Reynolds, Esther Hlíðar Jensen, Birgir Vilhelm Óskarsson, Joaquín M. C. Belart, Joël Ruch, Nils Gies, Gro B. M. Pedersen, and Páll Einarsson

The Fagradalsfjall eruption started on the 19th of March 2021 on a ~180 m long eruptive fissure, following a dike intrusion which had been ongoing for approximately three weeks. The eruption focused shortly thereafter on two eruptive vents. In April, new fissure openings occurred northeast of the initial eruption on the 5th, 6/7th, 10th, and 13th of April. The northernmost eruption occurred on the 5th of April, approximately 1 km northeast of the initial fissure, whereas the other fissure openings occurred between this and the initial eruptive vents. Stills from web cameras and time-lapse cameras are available for five of the fissure openings. These data show that the eruptions were preceded by steam emitted from cracks in the exact locations where the eruptions started. The time between the first steam observations and the visual appearance of glowing lava ranged between 15 seconds and 1.5 minutes during night observations and 9 to 23 minutes during daytime observations, the difference is likely explained by different lighting conditions. The eruptive vents are located where the north-easterly oriented dike intersected pre-existing north-south oriented strike-slip faults. These strike-slip faults could be identified on both pre-existing aerial photographs and digital elevation models. A high resolution ICEYE interferogram spanning the first day of the eruption in March reveals deformation where the later vent openings occurred in April. This indicates how Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar Analysis (InSAR) could be used to predict where subsequent vent openings are likely. This is of great importance for hazard assessment and defining exclusion zones during fissure eruptions.

How to cite: Hjartardóttir, Á. R., Dürig, T., Parks, M., Drouin, V., Eyjólfsson, V., Reynolds, H., Jensen, E. H., Óskarsson, B. V., Belart, J. M. C., Ruch, J., Gies, N., Pedersen, G. B. M., and Einarsson, P.: Eruptive vent openings during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland, and their relationship with pre-existing fractures, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10330, 2022.

EGU22-10343 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Sub-surface fault slip dynamics during the 2021 Reykjanes unrest (Iceland) 

Simon Bufféral, Elisabetta Panza, Stefano Mannini, and Joël Ruch

The dynamics of fault slip in the upper hundreds of meters of Earth’s crust has long been an open question, as their behavior differs from classical elastic dislocation models and their observation still raises challenges. Here, we analyze centimeter-scale ground resolution aerial optical images of the surface ruptures associated with the 8 Mw ≥ 5.0 sub-surface earthquakes that stroke during the Reykjanes seismo-tectonic unrest, starting on February 24, 2021, and ending with the start of an eruption at Fagradasfjall on March 19, 2021. For four major earthquakes, we apply a sub-pixel correlation technique of pre-, syn- and post-crisis aerial and drone orthomosaics to describe the displacement field on surface blocks. We find that surface offsets reached up to 50 cm, with almost pure dextral strike-slip in a NS direction. These orientations contrast with the overall NE-SW-oriented extensional structures originating from magmatic intrusions and appear as a bookshelf faulting system conjugated to the left-lateral strike-slip plate boundary, oriented ~N070.

On hard grounds (e.g.: lava flows), shallow ruptures reached the surface, reactivating pre-existing structures and displaying an en-échelon succession of hectometric-sized fractures. We believe these ruptures are representative of medium-sized faults behavior in the last few hundred meters of the crust. On soft grounds, however, the rupture was only betrayed by meter-sized en-échelon systems, evidenced by thousands of discrete sub-metric surface fractures we were able to observe in the field and map from the orthomosaics. The sharp deformation gradient we imaged indicates that the dislocation drastically decreased above ten to a few tens of meters below the surface. In this layer, diffuse deformation takes on most of the slip deficit, mainly through inelastic processes. As a result, evidence of the February 2021 earthquake did not endure erosion for more than a few months. Except for an isolated sinkhole which allowed us to assume that one fault pre-existed, there were no markers of its presence before the earthquake. We emphasize that this issue must frequently lead to an underestimation of the seismic hazard when performed from surface traces.

How to cite: Bufféral, S., Panza, E., Mannini, S., and Ruch, J.: Sub-surface fault slip dynamics during the 2021 Reykjanes unrest (Iceland), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10343, 2022.

EGU22-11386 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Real-time prediction trace gases from the Fagradalsfjall volcanic eruption 

Páll Einarsson, Ólafur Rögnvaldsson, and Haraldur Ólafsson

During the Fagradalsfjall volcanic eruption in Iceland in 2021, the atmospheric flow was simulated at high-spatial and temporal resolutions with the numerical system WRF, including the WRF-Chem for the simulation of trace gases and aerosols.  The output of the real-time simulations of SO2 has been compared to observations, showing that on time-scales of 12-24 hours, the numerical system has considerable skill, but moving to temporal scales shorter than 6 hours leads to substantial drop in the model performance.  The data and the model output suggest that there may be strong long-lasting horizontal gradients in the trace gases and limited horizontal mixing at times, calling for a more dense network of monitoring of gases from the volcano.  Wind variability on the time scale of minutes up to few hours remains a challenge.

How to cite: Einarsson, P., Rögnvaldsson, Ó., and Ólafsson, H.: Real-time prediction trace gases from the Fagradalsfjall volcanic eruption, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11386, 2022.

EGU22-11537 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Quantifying SO2 emissions from the 2021 eruption of Fagradalsfjall, Iceland, with TROPOMI and PlumeTraj 

Ben Esse, Mike Burton, Catherine Hayer, Sara Barsotti, and Melissa Pfeffer

Effusive eruptions are a significant source of volcanic volatile species, injecting various reactive and climate altering products into the atmosphere, while low-level emissions can be hazardous to human health due to the degradation of local or regional air quality. Quantification of the flux and composition of these emissions also offers an insight into the magmatic processes driving the eruption. These factors mean that gas flux measurements are a key monitoring tool for managing the response to such eruptions. The usual target species for gas flux measurements is sulphur dioxide (SO2) due to its high concentration in volcanic emissions but low ambient concentration, and its ability to be measured with UV and IR spectroscopy from both ground and space.

Fagradalsfjall volcano, Iceland, underwent an effusive eruption between March – September 2021, emitting over 100 million m3 of lava and producing significant SO2 emissions. The eruption progressed through several distinct phases in eruptive style, with different surface activity and gas emission behaviour for each. Satellite instruments have not traditionally been used for monitoring emissions from effusive eruptions such as this, as they often lack the spatial or temporal resolution to detect and quantify low-level effusive emissions. However, the launch of ESA’s Sentinel-5P, carrying the TROPOMI instrument, in October 2017 opened the door for such measurements, offering a step change in sensitivity to tropospheric emissions over previous missions.

Here, we will present measurements of altitude- and time-resolved SO2 fluxes from Fagradalsfjall by combining TROPOMI observations with a back-trajectory analysis toolkit called PlumeTraj. We compare the emissions with other geophysical monitoring streams throughout the eruption and explore changes across the different phases of the eruption. This will demonstrate the ability of TROPOMI and PlumeTraj for quantifying intra-day, low-level SO2 emissions and highlight the potential insight these measurements can provide for future effusive eruptions.

How to cite: Esse, B., Burton, M., Hayer, C., Barsotti, S., and Pfeffer, M.: Quantifying SO2 emissions from the 2021 eruption of Fagradalsfjall, Iceland, with TROPOMI and PlumeTraj, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11537, 2022.

EGU22-11995 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Widespread ground cracks generated during the 2021 Reykjanes oblique rifting event (SW Iceland) 

Joël Ruch, Simon Bufféral, Elisabetta Panza, Stefano Mannini, Birgir Oskarsson, Nils Gies, Celso Alvizuri, and Ásta Rut Hjartardóttir

The Reykjanes Peninsula has recently been subject to a seismo-tectonic unrest triggering widespread ground cracks. This started with a strong seismic swarm from 24 February to 17 March 2021 and culminated in a volcanic eruption on March 19, terminating an 800 years quiescence period in the region. The Peninsula hosts four overlapping and highly oblique rift zones. The structural relations between the plate boundary (N070), the rift zones (N030 to N040) and the barely visible fault zones oriented N175 are challenging to assess, as most structures, beside the rifts, are poorly preserved or absent in the landscape. 

To get the full picture of the fracture field generated by the 2021 Reykjanes rifting event, we collected an unprecedented amount of structural data, mapping almost the entire fresh fracture field. Field observations show widespread ground cracks in up to ~7 km distance from the intrusion area with en-echelon metrical segments with a right-lateral sense of shear. Most of these structures are not visible anymore, either covered by lava flows or eroded due to weathering. They are unique testimony of the strong seismicity preceding the eruption and would have remained unnoticed if not caught up by our fixed-wing drone, surveying an area of ~30 km2. We used the resulting high-resolution (<5 cm) orthomosaics and DEMs to study three main NS-oriented fracture zones of 3 to 4 kilometers long, mostly generated by ten earthquakes ranging from M5 to M5.6. Results show metric to decametric en-echelon structures with cracks of very limited extension, even in the vicinity of the eruption site. Two of the three main fracture zones clearly show fault reactivation, suggesting episodicity in the rifting processes. Apart from local sinkholes, the third area has probably also been reactivated, but the loose ground composition did not preserve previous structures.

We further used high-resolution optical image correlation technique to analyze aerial photos and drone imagery acquired before and after the large earthquakes sequence in the three fracture zones. Results show clear NS-oriented shear structures with a right-lateral sense of motion of up to 50 cm. This is in good agreement with moment tensors we computed from waveform data at seismic stations up to 1000 km distance. We observe consistent non-double-couple mechanisms, with tension-crack components oriented northwest-southeast. The orientations suggest strike-slip faulting with nodal planes oriented in the same direction as the main fault traces. We also found that the three fracture zones have sigmoid shapes and their overall extension bounds the near-field deformation of the plate boundary. These sigmoids may suggest a local high geothermal gradient and elasto-plastic deformation affecting the Reykjanes Peninsula, that further decreases toward the South Icelandic Seismic Zone.

How to cite: Ruch, J., Bufféral, S., Panza, E., Mannini, S., Oskarsson, B., Gies, N., Alvizuri, C., and Hjartardóttir, Á. R.: Widespread ground cracks generated during the 2021 Reykjanes oblique rifting event (SW Iceland), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11995, 2022.

EGU22-12260 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Monitoring volcanic plume height and fountain height using webcameras at the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption in Iceland 

Talfan Barnie, Manuel Titos, Tryggvi Hjörvar, Bergur Bergsson, Sighvatur Pálsson, Björn Oddson, Sara Barsotti, Melissa Pfeffer, Sibylle von Löwis of Menar, Eysteinn Sigurðsson, and Þórður Arason

The 2021 Fagradalsfjall basaltic fissural eruption in Iceland was closely studied due to its proximity to Reykjavík, which allowed easy installation and maintenance of monitoring equipment. Here we present the results from a network of calibrated webcameras maintained by the Icelandic Meteorological Office and Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management which were used to monitor volcanic plume height and fire fountain height. A number of different camera designs optimised for different power and communications constraints were used, some built in house at IMO, and they will be presented here. To make a 3D height measurement from a 2D web camera image requires extra geometric constraints, which are provided by assuming the vent location and wind direction, in a similar manner to the method applied at Etna. We have implemented this technique as a react.js single page app, which is kept updated by a messaging queue system which pushes new images through the servers at IMO. Additionally, the webcameras have to be calibrated, in that the geometry of the camera and lens distortion parameters have to be known - this is either perfomed in the laboratory, or where the cameras were not available before installation, using one of a number of vicarious calibration techniques developed for this purpose. The resulting plume heights were used to constrain SO2 dispersion models that were the basis for air quality forecasts during the eruption. 

How to cite: Barnie, T., Titos, M., Hjörvar, T., Bergsson, B., Pálsson, S., Oddson, B., Barsotti, S., Pfeffer, M., von Löwis of Menar, S., Sigurðsson, E., and Arason, Þ.: Monitoring volcanic plume height and fountain height using webcameras at the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption in Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12260, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12260, 2022.

EGU22-12435 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Co-eruptive subsidence during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption: geodetic constraints on magma source depths and stress changes 

Halldór Geirsson, Michelle Parks, Freysteinn Sigmundsson, Benedikt G. Ófeigsson, Vincent Drouin, Cécile Ducrocq, Hildur M. Friðriksdóttir, Sigrún Hreinsdóttir, and Andrew Hooper

Geodetic observations during volcanic eruptions are important to constrain from where the eruptive products originate in the sub-surface. Some eruptions are sourced from magma reservoirs shallow in the crust, whereas others may tap magma directly from the mantle. The 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption took place on the Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland, during March 19 to September 18, resulting in approximately 0.15 km3 of erupted basaltic lava. A wide-spread crustal subsidence and inward horizontal motion, centered on the eruptive site, was observed during the eruption. Nearest to the emplaced lava flows, additional localized subsidence is observed due to the loading of the lavas. The regional subsidence rate varied during the eruption: it was low in the beginning and then increased, in broad agreement with changes in the bulk effusive rate. In this study we use GNSS and InSAR data to model the deformation source(s) during different periods of the eruption, primarily aiming to resolve the depth and volume change of the magma source. We furthermore calculate crustal stress changes during the eruption and compare to the regional seismicity.

How to cite: Geirsson, H., Parks, M., Sigmundsson, F., Ófeigsson, B. G., Drouin, V., Ducrocq, C., Friðriksdóttir, H. M., Hreinsdóttir, S., and Hooper, A.: Co-eruptive subsidence during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption: geodetic constraints on magma source depths and stress changes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12435, 2022.

EGU22-12548 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Array observations of an oscillating seismic sequence in the Reykjanes Peninsula, SW-Iceland, in December 2021 

Hanna Blanck, Benedikt Halldórsson, and Kristín Vogfjord

In the evening hours of 21 December 2021, a seismic sequence started in south-central Reykjanes peninsula in SW-Iceland. Both the science community and the civil protection agency were alarmed due to the proximity of this sequence to the site of the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption (March – September 2021), especially as this was the most prominent sequence since the end of the eruption and it showed similar characteristic as the seismic activity that had been observed in the 3 weeks leading up to it. In addition, the December earthquake sequence was located along a NE-SW striking alignment which, together with GPS and InSAR measurements, has been interpreted as a dike intrusion, which also was the origin of the March eruption. We analyse the seismic activity using a small-aperture (D=1.7 km, d=0.5 km) urban seismic array, consisting of 5 Raspberry Shake 4D sensors (1 vertical geophone and 3 MEM accelerometric components) located in the nearby municipality of Grindavík about 10 km WSW from the former eruption site. During the first days of the seismic activity magnitudes reached up to ML 4.8 but on 30 December the activity subsided and then ceased, with only few events reaching more than ML 2, which coincides with the magnitude of completeness of the seismic array.  

We present the first insights into the spatiotemporal characteristics of the sequence provided by array processing of the most intense period of the sequence. To process the array data, we used the SeisComP module AUTOLAMBDA with both the FK and PMCC (Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation) method to obtain back azimuth and slowness pairs of incoming waves. During its first hours, the sequence showed a systematic behaviour in the back azimuthal distribution of the incoming waves. Namely, over a repeated interval of a couple of hours the back azimuthal estimates increase steadily at a rate of 5 to 12°/h after which the source of the activity appears to drop back to the initial azimuthal values, and the cycle repeats. Over the following days, these bursts of oscillating activity become less frequent with relatively calm phases between. These periods of oscillating behaviour show that the seismic activity was systematically migrating southwest to/from northeast and most likely is the signature of a pulsating magma pressure front in the dike itself. This behaviour is similar to some phases during the previous eruption when lava was actively erupting with hours of quiescence in between. These results show that the monitoring of automatic back azimuth and slowness estimates are a useful tool in revealing small-scale systematic behaviour of seismic sequences in the area in real-time. 

How to cite: Blanck, H., Halldórsson, B., and Vogfjord, K.: Array observations of an oscillating seismic sequence in the Reykjanes Peninsula, SW-Iceland, in December 2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12548, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12548, 2022.

EGU22-12772 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Origin of gabbro and anorthosite mineral clusters in Fagradalsfjall lavas 

William Wenrich, Eniko Bali, Edward W. Marshall, and Gudmundur Gudfinnssonn

The 2021 Fagradalsfjall lava brought a number of mineral clusters/xenoliths <6cm in diameter to the surface. Of the >40 samples collected from the field, eight xenoliths and one plagioclase megacryst were analyzed by stereo- and petrographic microscopes and the electron microprobe. In hand specimen, the xenoliths were sub-rounded to rounded, and were olivine and clinopyroxene bearing anorthositic gabbros and anorthosites. During thin section characterization, deformed and undeformed textural types were distinguished. In deformed xenoliths, deformation textures such as undulose extinction, deformed albite twinning, and triple junctions were observed in plagioclases. Plagioclase in deformed samples was typically unzoned and had bimodal crystal size distribution. Olivines had normal zoning where they were in contact with interstitial melt and more pronounced zoning was observed on the edges on the clusters. Undeformed samples did not show deformation features and had ophitic and poikilitic texture. Clinopyroxene in undeformed xenoliths was commonly observed interstitially as well as discrete subhedral crystals. The interstitial clinopyroxene resorbed the edges of plagioclase and olivine and had uniform extinction in all but one sample. 
Electron microprobe results show that the compositional variation of minerals within the xenoliths overlaps and exceeds the compositional variation of the host lava macrocryst cargo. Olivine forsterite, plag anorthite, Cpx Mg#, and Cr# content ranged from 80-89, 76-89, 82-87, and 6-18, respectively in mineral cores and 59-86, 65-86, 71-87, and 0.4-12, respectively, in zoned rims. Mineral compositions overlap in both deformed and undeformed samples. In general, undeformed samples cover a broader range compared to deformed ones, the latter being much more uniformly primitive. One deformed sample is an outlier with significantly lower forsterite (~73-79), anorthite (~66-71), and Mg# (~74) in clinopyroxene compared to the rest of the clusters and lava phenocrysts.
Plagioclases in most xenoliths contained devitrified silicate melt inclusions. Melt compositions after post entrapment corrections are in equilibrium with their host plagioclases according to Putirka (2008). The calculated temperatures based on plagioclase melt pairs indicate a difference in crystallization environment between the clusters that overlap the lava phenocrysts and the evolved outlier. The average crystallization temperatures for most xenoliths is 1222°C, whereas for the deformed one is 1191°C, respectively. With an error of ±23°C, these two temperatures could be from separate sources.

How to cite: Wenrich, W., Bali, E., Marshall, E. W., and Gudfinnssonn, G.: Origin of gabbro and anorthosite mineral clusters in Fagradalsfjall lavas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12772, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12772, 2022.

EGU22-13461 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Evolution of deformation and seismicity on the Reykjanes Peninsula, preceding the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland 

Michelle Parks, Kristín S. Vogfjörd, Freysteinn Sigmundsson, Andrew Hooper, Halldór Geirsson, Vincent Drouin, Benedikt G. Ófeigsson, Sigrún Hreinsdóttir, Sigurlaug Hjaltadóttir, Kristín Jónsdóttir, Páll Einarsson, Sara Barsotti, Josef Horálek, and Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir

The 2021 effusive eruption at Mt. Fagradalsfjall, on the Reykjanes Peninsula oblique rift in Iceland, was preceded by a 14-month long period of volcano-tectonic unrest (comprising both significant ground deformation and intense seismicity). A seismic swarm was initially detected in the Fagradalsfjall region between the 15th to 20th December 2019. Following a short quiescence, activity re-commenced on the 21st January 2020, with a small cluster of earthquakes near Grindavík (~ 10 km west of Fagradalsfjall). Concurrent deformation was detected on two GNSS stations in this area and on Sentinel-1 interferograms. Geodetic modelling of these observations indicated the deformation most likely resulted from the intrusion of a magmatic sill, directly west of Mt. Thorbjörn, at a depth of about 4 km. This was followed by two additional sill-type intrusions in a similar location, between 6th March - 17th April and 15th May - 22nd July 2020 respectively. The three intrusions comprised a total volume change of about 9 million cubic meters. In mid-July 2020, inflation was again detected on the Reykjanes Peninsula, this time in the Kýsuvík volcanic system to the east of Fagradalsfjall. This episode of inflation lasted several weeks and geodetic inversions indicated the observed signal was produced by the combination of a deflating sill-like source at a depth of ~16 km and inflation of a body at a depth of ~6 km. The latter, corresponding to a volume change of about 5 million cubic meters. During this period of intrusive activity, seismicity shifted along various regions across the Peninsula, in relation to a combination of processes – magma migration, triggered seismicity and tectonic earthquakes.

 

Intense seismic swarms commenced on the 24th February 2021, concentrated at both Fagradalsfjall and also extending across a 20 km segment along the plate boundary – including triggered strike-slip earthquakes up to Mw5.64. At the same time, deformation was detected on local GNSS stations, and subsequent Interferometric Sythethic Aperture Radar Analysis (InSAR) of Sentinel-1 data confirmed the observed deformation was primarily the result of a dike intrusion and slip along the plate boundary. Geodetic inversions indicated a ~9 km long dike with a total intruded volume of around 34 million cubic meters (Sigmundsson et al., in review). During this period, stored tectonic stress was systematically released, resulting in a decline in deformation and seismicity over several days preceding the eruption onset, on 19th March 2021 in Geldingadalir at Mt. Fagradalsfjall. The eruption continued until the 18th September 2021 and produced a lava field covering an area of 4.8 km2 with an extruded bulk volume of 150 ± 3 × 106 m3 (Pedersen et al., in review).

 

References

Sigmundsson et al. (in review). Deformation and seismicity decline preceding a rift zone eruption at Fagradalsfjall, Iceland.

 

Pedersen et al. (in review). Volume, effusion rate, and lava transport during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption: Results from near real-time photogrammetric monitoring. DOI:10.1002/essoar.10509177.1.

How to cite: Parks, M., Vogfjörd, K. S., Sigmundsson, F., Hooper, A., Geirsson, H., Drouin, V., Ófeigsson, B. G., Hreinsdóttir, S., Hjaltadóttir, S., Jónsdóttir, K., Einarsson, P., Barsotti, S., Horálek, J., and Ágústsdóttir, T.: Evolution of deformation and seismicity on the Reykjanes Peninsula, preceding the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13461, 2022.

EGU22-13504 | Presentations | GMPV9.1

Imaging the anisotropic structure of the Reykjanes Peninsula across the 2021 Fagradalsfjall dyke intrusion through local shear-wave splitting analysis 

Amber Parsons, Conor Bacon, Tim Greenfield, Tom Winder, Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir, Bryndís Brandsdóttir, Tomas Fischer, Jana Doubravová, Nicholas Rawlinson, Robert White, Egill Árni Gudnason, Gylfi Páll Hersir, and Pavla Hrubcova

Since late 2019, the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland has experienced elevated seismic activity, which culminated in a dyke intrusion beneath Fagradalsfjall on 24th February 2021, and an eruption on 19th March. Seismic anisotropy – the directional dependence of seismic wave speed – can be used to study structural properties of the crust, which may be controlled by the state of stress through preferential closure of micro-cracks. This provides an opportunity to investigate changes in crustal stress regime caused by a dyke intrusion, with potential applications in eruption monitoring and forecasting.

 

A dense seismic network spanning Fagradalsfjall recorded more than 130,000 earthquakes between June 2020 and August 2021; detected and located using QuakeMigrate1. From this dataset, we calculate the seismic anisotropy of the upper crust through shear-wave splitting analysis. Exceptional ray-path coverage allows for imaging at high spatial and temporal resolution. We present these results in relation to the regional stress regime and tectonic structure, and search for changes in anisotropy before, during, and after the dyke intrusion and eruption.

 

1: Winder, T., Bacon, C., Smith, J., Hudson, T., Greenfield, T. and White, R., 2020. QuakeMigrate: a Modular, Open-Source Python Package for Automatic Earthquake Detection and Location. https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10505850.1

How to cite: Parsons, A., Bacon, C., Greenfield, T., Winder, T., Ágústsdóttir, T., Brandsdóttir, B., Fischer, T., Doubravová, J., Rawlinson, N., White, R., Gudnason, E. Á., Hersir, G. P., and Hrubcova, P.: Imaging the anisotropic structure of the Reykjanes Peninsula across the 2021 Fagradalsfjall dyke intrusion through local shear-wave splitting analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13504, 2022.

SM7 – Seismic Hazard Assessment (earthquake forecasting, engineering seismology, seismic and/or multihazard probabilistic assessment)

EGU22-238 | Presentations | SM7.1

Lateral Variation of Shear Velocity and Lg Attenuation Structure along the Hi-CLIMB Profile in Tibet 

Banashree Sarma, Kajaljyoti Borah, Aakash Anand, and Saikat Santra

The Tibetan plateau, an uplifted topography situated to the north of the Himalayas, acts as a decisive region for interpretation of the mechanism of continent-continent collision between Indian and Eurasian plates. Sandwiched between the Tethyan Himalaya in the utmost south and Songpan-Gangze plate in the extreme north, the central Tibetan plateau is constructed of two major geological blocks named the Lhasa and Qiangtang terrane, which are detached by the Bangong-Nujiang suture belt. We have calculated Lg Q and shear velocity crustal structure across the ~900 km long Himalayan-Tibetan Continental Lithosphere during Mountain Building (Hi-CLIMB) profile using the decisive two-station method and joint inversion of receiver function and Rayleigh wave group velocity data. The vertical component of broadband seismograms of 37 regional earthquakes, well distributed in NE, SE, and NW backazimuths, recorded by 171 stations are refined to extricate the Lg amplitude spectra. The 1 Hz Lg Q (Q0) estimated between 29716 pairs of two stations and out of these estimates 2228 number of high trait interstation Q0 values are used as an input to the 1-D inversion done through singular value decomposition method with Tikhonov regularization to obtain a lateral variation of Lg Q along the profile. To reduce the inherent error in Q0 measurements, the maximum azimuthal difference between the source and two stations is set to 50 although a threshold of 150 is allowed. The inversion results provide Lg Q0 values ranging from 66 (parts of lesser Himalayas including Nepal) to 177 (Qiangtang terrane). Previous studies show that the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) underthrusting low-velocity sediments from the Ganges Basin manifest the ubiquity of water released from the underthrust sediments hence decreasing the fault strength and triggering large earthquakes. This instability in this part of the profile correlates well with extremely low values of Lg Q0Although inside the plateau Lg Q0 values are seen to be increased, we observe consistent low Q0 values across the profile which can be associated with a high Vp/Vs ratio, hence reflecting partial melt in the region. Based on our inversion, we estimated crustal thickness along the profile ranging from 45 km to 72 km (South to North) which is well correlated with the previous studies in this region as well as established a positive correlation with our measured Lg Q0 values. The most striking result is the high Q0 value in the Qiangtang terrane compared to the previous studies (Q0<100). The observed difference may be due to the use of a small number of earthquake data, data used from NE and NW backazimuths, use of the high azimuthal difference between the source and two stations (150), and due to the source/path effect, which is not completely removed in the two-station method. To reduce the attenuation-source tradeoffs and improve the resolution a joint tomography of single station and two stations method might be benevolent. The current study provides a new understanding of the region, improving our perception of the crustal formation of the region.

How to cite: Sarma, B., Borah, K., Anand, A., and Santra, S.: Lateral Variation of Shear Velocity and Lg Attenuation Structure along the Hi-CLIMB Profile in Tibet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-238, 2022.

EGU22-2096 | Presentations | SM7.1 | Highlight

Linking characteristics of debris flows to their high frequency seismic signature: insights from field measurements and model predictions 

Zhen Zhang, Fabian Walter, Brian McArdell, Tjalling de Haas, Michaela Wenner, Małgorzata Chmiel, and Siming He

Measuring debris-flow properties remains a significant challenge in studies of natural hazards. Recent works suggest that the seismic signals generated by debris flows can help analyze flow dynamics, but theoretical details for estimating bulk flow properties from seismic signals are not fully understood or comprehensively tested. Here, we invert basal force fluctuations on the torrent bed using high frequency seismic signals generated by 6 well-documented debris flows at Illgraben, Switzerland. Verified against independent measurements, our seismically-derived basal force fluctuations match well with the measured basal fluctuations at a force plate and correlate with the bulk flow properties, including flow depth and weight. We propose a physical model employing the multi-particle force chains and random single-particle impacts within a debris flow to simulate the generation of high frequency seismic signals. We find that the random impacts of single particles and of multi-particle force chains are active at the same time, and together they control the debris-flow’s basal force fluctuations. For different events and different positions within events, the relative contributions of single particle impacts and of multi-particle force chains dominating the basal fluctuations vary significantly and control the non-linear relation between the high-frequency seismic signal strength and the bulk flow characteristics. According to our model, fluctuating basal forces are strongly controlled by particle sizes and flow depth. Our results open new perspectives for the understanding of high frequency seismic signals generated by debris flows and the estimation of bulk flow characteristics, such as flow depth and weight.

How to cite: Zhang, Z., Walter, F., McArdell, B., de Haas, T., Wenner, M., Chmiel, M., and He, S.: Linking characteristics of debris flows to their high frequency seismic signature: insights from field measurements and model predictions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2096, 2022.

EGU22-2101 | Presentations | SM7.1

Research on the seismic signal characteristics of debris flow: an in-field monitoring approach 

kailai Zhou, Yifei Cui, Yan Yan, and Dingzhu Liu

Debris flow hazard often brings huge economic losses and fatalities downstream. Despite the traditional in-field monitoring system developed, the apparatus is vulnerable to being damaged in the process of hazards, resulting in limited in-situ data collected to analyze the dynamic process. Recently, with the development of seismology, the seismic signals from geophones become an effective method to analyze the process of debris flow for hazard assessment. The scientific challenge lies in how to get the seismic signals of the whole process of debris flow accurately for analyzing the seismic signal characteristics and of debris flow. In this study, two debris flow gullies (Er gully and Chediguan gully in Wenchuan county) are selected to install the monitoring apparatus after field investigation, and two monitoring sites are selected for each gully. The ground vibration monitoring system consists of geophone and Data-Cube. The geophone is fixed in the concrete base which is clinging to the bedrock firmly to collect the seismic signals and save the seismic signals in the Data-Cube. In addition, each monitoring site is equipped with an infrared camera for recording the geomorphologic changes of the monitoring section in the gully, and a rain gauge is installed at the monitoring site upstream of each gully to obtain rainfall information during the whole observation period. The ambient noise in raw seismic signals will be filtered out, and the filter seismic signals are combined with rainfall information to analyze the moment of potential hazards. Then identify debris flow by checking the video of the infrared camera and analyzing the spectrum, spectrogram, and power spectra density of these potential hazards. Finally, the seismic signal characteristics of the debris flow are extracted and analyzed. Based on this, the monitoring and early warning work of debris flow hazards can be guided.

How to cite: Zhou, K., Cui, Y., Yan, Y., and Liu, D.: Research on the seismic signal characteristics of debris flow: an in-field monitoring approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2101, 2022.

Geological hazards occur frequently in Qilian Mountain, causing economic losses and casualties, therefore, this scientific expedition mainly investigates the geological hazards in the Qilian Mountain where the distribution of hazards is uneven, mainly concentrating in the southeast. Due to the inaccuracy of remote sensing interpretation of hazard sites, it is necessary to combine field investigations to calibrate hazard distribution and development trend forecast. Through on-site survey and investigation of each hazard sites, field survey forms and hazard plane sketches should be finished on site. Through unmanned air vehicle survey and on-site sampling, the specific situation of the hazard sites can be acquired, and we can summarize the hazard data to obtain the distribution of hazard sites. We studied the damage forms and characteristics of engineering structures within the influence range of typical disaster chains, and analyzed the combined damage characteristics of different disaster chains and different engineering structures. We researched the possible development trends of potential disaster chains, and predicted their impact and damage on engineering structures. On-site investigation of hazard sites is of great significance in exploring the key links of disaster chain control and proposing monitoring measures for engineering hazard prevention and mitigation.

How to cite: Zeng, C. and Hu, S.: Distribution law and development trend forecast of geological hazards in Qilian Mountain, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2142, 2022.

EGU22-2417 | Presentations | SM7.1

Seismic data as an additional layer of information for large rockslide modelling through back analysis 

Giulia Bossi, Ricarda Gatter, Stefano Crema, and Marco Cavalli

When studying large landslides any data matters. In fact, in contrast to other scientific branches, data scarcity is a pressing issue especially for high altitude landslides. When large rockslides occur in steep valleys, long runouts can threaten buildings and infrastructures, even though the source area is well above the exposed elements. In such cases, usually no ground-truth monitoring data is available on site, which is needed to understand the causes and processes of the collapse.

Seismic data from a widespread network of seismographs can help to partially fill gaps in the characterization of the above mentioned processes. The most straightforward information that can be inferred from ground motion recordings is the duration of the event – or at least the duration of the most intense and violent phase of the runout. By coupling the velocity of the event with some topographic data leading to the estimation of the detached volume and the deposit distribution, the user may gather sufficient information to produce a satisfactory numerical model through back analysis. In case the topographic data are characterized by high uncertainty and/or poor resolution, seismic records are particularly useful for ground-truthing because they represent an independent source of data.

This study describes the modelling approach used to understand the dynamic of a 365,000 m3 rockslide in the Dolomites (UNESCO World Heritage, North-East Italy). The landslide detached from a steep slope located between 3100 and 2800 m a.s.l. and almost free fell for 600 m. Then it crashed and fragmented in a small rocky hanging valley of glacial origin, subsequently reaching 1400 m a.s.l. with a runout of approximately 2 km. For this area, pre-event and post-event DEMs were available but with different resolution, alignment and coverage. The comparison of pre- and post-event topography allowed the identification and quantification of erosional and depositional areas, the estimation of landslide volume and of the potential errors associated with this type of analysis.

A DAN3D numerical model of the landslide was calibrated using both DEM of Difference (DoD) maps and seismic data. The ground motion records proved to be remarkably useful, as they ensured the reliability of the model notwithstanding the DoD maps intrinsic uncertainties. The seismic data provide a new layer of information in a swiss cheese model of reliability focused on reducing model equifinality and on increasing the overall robustness of the analysis. This finding is fundamental as the results of the back analysis may be used to model and test future scenarios, which can be used to support risk assessment and mitigation.

How to cite: Bossi, G., Gatter, R., Crema, S., and Cavalli, M.: Seismic data as an additional layer of information for large rockslide modelling through back analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2417, 2022.

EGU22-2585 | Presentations | SM7.1 | Highlight

Recent Developments in Environmental Seismology 

Fabian Walter

Seismologists use elastic waves to probe and study the Earth’s interior. With the advent of more portable instrumentation and dense sensor coverage, recent attention has been directed to small scales near our planet’s surface. The resulting field of “environmental seismology” includes a particular focus on natural hazards and mass movements ranging from small rock falls to massive avalanches made up of snow, ice and/or rock. Local and regional seismic networks also capture seismic signatures of stable deformation including sliding and fracture signals accompanying glacier and landslide creep. With the help of passive interferometry, such data furthermore reveal structural changes of potentially unstable masses that may represent failure precursors.

Over the past 1-2 decades, numerous studies have revealed the usefulness of seismology in environmental studies. Consequently, seismic instrumentation is being introduced into monitoring infrastructure to improve warning capabilities and scientific research. This presentation discusses recent seismometer deployments and data mining approaches in environmental seismology. The focus is on Alpine terrain, where dense coverage of earthquake monitoring stations and other seismometers exist, which lends itself to environmental studies. Provided that specific challenges in sensor design and data processing are soon tackled, a range of pilot projects suggests that seismic techniques will soon be part of the next generation of operational monitoring and warning systems in Alpine terrain.

How to cite: Walter, F.: Recent Developments in Environmental Seismology, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2585, 2022.

EGU22-3172 | Presentations | SM7.1

A major update to the Exotic Seismic Events Catalog: A compilation of seismogenic mass movements 

Elaine Collins, Kate Allstadt, Charlotte Groult, Clément Hibert, Jean-Philippe Malet, Liam Toney, Erin Bessette-Kirton, Manoch Bahavar, and Mick Van Fossen

            We present an update to the collection of seismogenic mass movements that forms the basis of the Exotic Seismic Events Catalog (ESEC), doubling the number of events in the catalog from 121 to 242 while broadening the geographic distribution and range of event types. The ESEC is available online through the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) Searchable Product Depository (http://ds.iris.edu/spud/esec) or as a downloadable SQLite database from USGS ScienceBase. This update adds more instances of seismogenic landslides, debris flows, snow avalanches, outburst floods, and lahars as well as some new event types: two mine collapses, a submarine landslide, and a volcanic flank collapse. We also now incorporate infrasound detection. Whereas the first version of the catalog focused on mass movements located primarily in the Western United States and Canada, this update includes events from Europe and Pacific Islands. We only include events for which seismic data are openly available.

            We provide both basic seismic information (e.g., station detections on different frequency bands, seismic data location, etc.) and ancillary data such as geometric measurements, references, photographs, and satellite imagery. When available we use published values such as source location, drop height, runout distance, and volume, and when not documented, we estimate values from satellite imagery or photographs. Events are categorized in terms of the quality of the ancillary data, and we provide estimates of uncertainty on parameters such as location and volume. This update increases the availability of seismogenic mass movement data to the community to promote research that betters our understanding of event dynamics and improves methods for exotic event detection, classification, and characterization. Future updates could allow for the incorporation of other exotic event types like blasts and glacial events. The ESEC has a mechanism for community members to contribute events to the collection, so we encourage other researchers to join in the effort.

How to cite: Collins, E., Allstadt, K., Groult, C., Hibert, C., Malet, J.-P., Toney, L., Bessette-Kirton, E., Bahavar, M., and Van Fossen, M.: A major update to the Exotic Seismic Events Catalog: A compilation of seismogenic mass movements, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3172, 2022.

The high-speed landslide may result in varying degrees of damage to downstream, such as dammed lake and subsequent dam failure and outburst flood. Nowadays, the seismic station is able to records the seismic signals of the entire process of landslide, provides valuable data for understanding the landslide process. Meanwhile, numerical simulation can also simulate the entire landslide process. However, it is seriously affected by variability of input parameters. To tackle the scientific challenge, we comprehensively analyzed the 2018 Baige landslide by firstly performing a joint time-frequency domain transform of the seismic signal using short-time fourier transform. We then reconstruct the land slide force history using empirical Green’s function. We used the constructed landslide force history inversion to calibrate the numerical input parameters using Discrete Element Method. Finally, we use the calibrated parameters to construct the whole process of landslide numerically. This study provides a potential way that improves the rationality and reliability of the landslide reconstruction using multi-method joint analysis.

How to cite: Cui, Y.: Link Between the Landslides and the Generated Seismic Signals: Dynamic Inversion and Numerical Simulation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3347, 2022.

EGU22-3351 | Presentations | SM7.1

Identifiability of rheological models in landslides modeling: a 3D SPH study 

Shuai Li, Hui Tang, Chong Peng, Xiao-qing Chen, Hua-yong Chen, and Jian-gang Chen

Landslides are one of the most destructive geohazards due to their high mobility and long runout. Numerical prediction of their motion and deposit behavior is an effective method for quantitative hazard assessment. The numerical approaches can get more insight into the landslide dynamics such as displacement, momentum, and impact forces. One of the crucial aspects in the application of continuum models is how to choose an appropriate rheology law for the materials. However, this issue remains poorly addressed in the geo-hazards simulations community. In this study, two constitutive models are applied to interpret landslide materials that integrated within Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) scheme. The elastoplastic Drucker-Prager (DP) model from soil mechanics and its counterpart in fluid mechanics, the non-Newtonian rheological Drucker-Prager (RDP) model. The results indicate that both the soil mechanic model and the fluid model can reproduce key dynamic processes (e.g., acceleration, deceleration, rebound stages) and deposition morphology (e.g., deposit area and height), within different values of input parameters given equivalent burst simulations. There is no order of which is better than another, only the more appropriate model that depends on landslide characteristics.

How to cite: Li, S., Tang, H., Peng, C., Chen, X., Chen, H., and Chen, J.: Identifiability of rheological models in landslides modeling: a 3D SPH study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3351, 2022.

EGU22-3738 | Presentations | SM7.1

Thermoelastic effects on resonance frequency of rock columns at daily scale, and modeling by acousto-elasticity 

Antoine Guillemot, Laurent Baillet, Eric Larose, and Pierre Bottelin

Among slope instabilities, prone-to-fall rock columns are known to exhibit features of strong vibration modes. Corresponding resonance frequencies can be tracked by seismic instrumentation for monitoring column’s mechanical and structural properties, as well as preventing any irreversible failures. In previous studies, superficial thermoelastic effects were supposedly driving resonance frequencies daily fluctuations, but not qualitatively neither quantitively evidenced[1]. Our work corroborates this hypothesis and quantifies the physical processes involved. We interpret daily variations of resonance frequencies in Les Arches study site (Vercors, French Prealps) [2] through a thermo-mechanical model based on finite-element method. The fluctuations of modelled resonance frequencies along day match closely the observed ones, reproducing the frequency increase at daytime of around 2%. In addition, our model allows explaining the various behaviors observed across study sites: the frequency response strongly depends on solar exposition, as well as timing and intensity of both radiative and convective heat fluxes. For future instrumentation, we hence recommend the deployment of pyranometers on rocky sites in order to accurately invert acousto-elastic parameters along time, thus tracking rock fracturing through acousto-elasticity monitoring.


[1] Colombero, C., Jongmans, D., Fiolleau, S., Valentin, J., Baillet, L. & Bièvre, G. (2021) Seismic Noise Parameters as Indicators of Reversible Modifications in Slope Stability: A Review. Surv Geophys. doi:10.1007/s10712-021-09632-w

[2] Bottelin, P., Lévy, C., Baillet, L., Jongmans, D. & Guéguen, P. (2013) Modal and thermal analysis of Les Arches unstable rock column (Vercors massif, French Alps). Geophys J Int, 194, 849–858. doi:10.1093/gji/ggt046

How to cite: Guillemot, A., Baillet, L., Larose, E., and Bottelin, P.: Thermoelastic effects on resonance frequency of rock columns at daily scale, and modeling by acousto-elasticity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3738, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3738, 2022.

In recent decades, loess landslides (clusters) induced by agricultural irrigation activities are accelerating the evolution of the loess tableland. However, how loess landslides (clusters) remodel the tableland has not been fully discussed in the previous studies. The lack of such research hinders people’s understanding of the role and mechanism of landslides in the geomorphological evolution of the modern Loess Plateau. In this paper, taking South Jingyang Tableland, Shaanxi Province, China as an example, through remote sensing interpretation, landslide monitoring (including remote sensing satellite monitoring, remote online monitoring and 3D laser scanning), electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) survey, field survey and sampling, geomorphic change detection (GCD) and numerical simulation, we try to conduct multidisciplinary study to reveal the dynamic evolution of landslides (groups) in South Jingyang Tableland and their influence on the tableland landform. This study revealed the temporal and spatial distribution of landslides in the study area and the dynamic change of the tableland edge. It is found that since 1974, the area of the tableland eroded by landslides has reached 221, 320 m2, and the maximum retreat of the tableland edge is 139.6m and the maximum retreat rate is 2.97m/yr. The hydrogeological structure of five profiles was found out by means of ERT surveys, which provides important evidence for identifying the distribution and migration channels of the groundwater. We successfully monitored the processes of three landslides using multi-temporal data of terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) surveys and estimated the impact of these landslides on geomorphic changes. Using the on-line monitoring equipment installed at the top of L3 landslide, we realize that the tilt deformation process of L3 landslide top is not a single linear trend, but a complex deformation process. Finally, we use Massflow software to simulate the movement process of L3 landslide and reconstruct the likely stages of the L3 landslide development. On the one hand, this study provides a reference for the monitoring of landslides in loess tableland, on the other hand, it provides a scientific support for the study of interaction between loess landslides and geomorphic evolution. 

How to cite: Hu, S., Wang, X., and Wang, N.: Dynamic process, influence and triggering mechanism of remolding landform by landslide clusters in South Jingyang Tableland, China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3846, 2022.

EGU22-4111 | Presentations | SM7.1

Monitoring of landslide affecting factors using automatic microseismic location technology in Deda town, Tibet 

Yaojun Wang, Qian Qiu, Wei Zhang, Jun Zhou, and Peng Gao

Landslides are one of the most dangerous natural hazards. Despite several efforts to study this phenomenon, there is still little clarity regarding dynamic processes associated with landslides. Recently, seismic signals are used to analyze the dynamic properties of landslides, because seismograms provide time-series recordings of sliding during run out. One of the important steps is to achieve a microseismic location. By analyzing the source, the events and the magnitude of the microseismic generated by landslides can indicate the risk of the slip surface. In previous studies, many people have outstanding performance at one aspect of microseismic localization. But those methods often need too many specialist operations and are difficult to achieve real-time and automatic operation. In this paper, we proposed the automatic microseismic location technology by CNN and applied it to landslide monitoring at Deda town, Tibet.

This automatic microseismic location technology is mainly divided into four steps: signal classification, first picking, phase connection, and hypocentral location. Both signal classification and first picking are based on CNN, which can automatically extract waveform features and avoid the tedious parameter setting from traditional detection technology. CNN is also a key point of intelligent processing of microseismic signals. In our study, different network architectures are used to improve the accuracy of these two tasks. Signal classification focuses on the difference between microseismic signals and noise, while time pick-up is the identification of the first starting point of microseismic signals after obtaining effective microseismic signals. In microseismic phase connection, we modify the “coincidence_trigger” function provided by Obspy(a Python library for seismic) to adapt to CNN predictions. Events identified by CNN were saved as waveform fragments containing multiple stations after phase connection. Meanwhile, timestamps were also saved. In the last step, the Newton method was adopted for source location, which proved to be very reliable in accuracy and stability through experimental comparison. By loading the time of microseismic events and station positions, we can achieve location. Since the number of stations detected by each microseismic event was not the same, dynamic processing was also carried out here. Therefore, the whole process of microseismic positioning only needs to input waveform data obtained by geophone and corresponding station information, without the operation of experts.

We applied this scheme to the field data are collected from Deda town, which is located in Tibet. There are faults on both sides of the mountain slopes. A total of 76 microseismic events were detected in 27 days by using our automatic microseismic location technology. All the events were located near the faults, and some events happened near the slip surface. But the magnitude of almost all of the events is less than 0 so we think these events are related to the landslides' energy release.

How to cite: Wang, Y., Qiu, Q., Zhang, W., Zhou, J., and Gao, P.: Monitoring of landslide affecting factors using automatic microseismic location technology in Deda town, Tibet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4111, 2022.

Due to the construction of Three Gorges Dam, many old landslides have been revived with the impoundment of reservoir water, which pose great threaten to the lives of residents. Deformation observed in a reservoir landslide is the result of a complex multi-field and dynamic evolution process. In order to gain a comprehensive understanding of the deformation mechanism and evolution process of a reservoir landslide, multi-fields information need to be monitored. Taking Majiagou landslide located at Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) as an example, a Distributed fiber optic sensing (DFOS) based monitoring system was developed and implemented. The multi-fields information including seepage (rainfall, water level, pore water pressure), deformation and strain-stress variation were monitored in real time. Through analyzing the recorded data with grey correlation analysis method, the factors that trigger the deformation of Majiagou landslide were identified. By further linking the mechanical parameters of soil with seepage field, the deformation mechanism was revealed as well. This paper has provided an advanced multi-fields information monitoring and data interpretation method, which can be widely adopted in reservoir landslide study. 

How to cite: Zhang, L.: Triggers and deformation mechanism study of reservoir landslide through multi-fields information interpretation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4593, 2022.

Earthquakes–induced landslides generally provide abundant loose materials at hillslopes, possiblly triggering morphological reshaping processes at river channel and riverbed during the large flash flood hydrograph and bringing huge risk to downstream. Therefore, in a Wenchuan earthquake-affected catchment, the collected hydro-meteorological data and high-precision small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (sUAV) data were used to quantificationally analyze channel evolution by a large flash flood event on 25th and 26th June, 2018. It was found that the stable riverbed structure formed by the coarsening layer appeared in the tenth year after the Wenchuan earthquake. In confined channel, the layer can protect the channel and resist the drastic change after the flash flood event with only small bed elevtion from 0.2 m to 2 m. Without the protection of the coarsening layer, the change could reach 6 m in unconfined channnel. Meanwhile, more materials with deposition volume of 753,108 m3 from tributaries were generally taken to main channel,and more intense erosion with the volume of 1.0107 m3 mostly occurred in the downstream of tributaries. It was noted that, in the cross-section, the increased channel width could lead to the significant change with the large volume of 35 m3. Additionally, conceptual model of the generalized channel response to large flash floods was provided during multi-stage periods after the Wenchuan earthquake. It determined the rebalance processes of channel evolution in the tenth year after the earthquake. This study will contribute to understanding the post-earthquake long-term channel evolutions and could provide decision-makers of assessing the mitigation strategies for higher-magnitude flood disasters triggered by channel change in earthquake-affected watershed.

How to cite: Jin, W.: Channel evolution triggered by a large flash flood based on sUAV at an earthquake-affected catchment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4820, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4820, 2022.

EGU22-5685 | Presentations | SM7.1

On-ice seismicity of a rapidly-rising jökulhlaup cycle at the A.P. Olsen Ice Cap, NE-Greenland 

Daniel BInder, Stefan Mertl, Michele Citterio, Signe Hillerup-Larsen, Kirsty Langley, Fabian Walter, and Eva P. S. Eibl

Rapidly-rising jökulhlaups, or glacial outburst floods, are a phenomenon with a high potential for damage. The initiation and propagation processes of a rapidly-rising jökulhlaup are still not fully understood. Seismic monitoring can contribute to an improved process understanding, but comprehensive long-term seismic monitoring campaigns capturing the dynamics of a rapidly-rising jökulhlaup are rare. In 2012, we installed a seismic network at the marginal, ice-dammed lake of the A.P. Olsen Ice Cap in NE-Greenland. Episodic outbursts from the lake cause flood waves in the Zackenberg river, characterized by a rapid discharge increase within a few hours. We deployed industrial geophones (4.5 Hz) for the five on-ice stations. Two stations were designed as mini-arryas with three vertical sensors, and the remaining were equipped with three-component sensors. All sensors were sunk about 3 m into the ice. Our 6 months long seismic dataset comprises the whole fill-and-drain cycle of the ice-dammed lake in 2012 and includes one of the most destructive floods recorded so far for the Zackenberg river. Seismic event detection reveals periods of high seismicity during enhanced surface melting prior to the outburst flood. During the outburst itself the number of detected events dropped due to the elevated seismic noise level. Furthermore, different beamforming methods were tested to infer back azimuth changes during periods of elevated seismicity. We propose that the changes of back azimuth are related to the subglacial infiltration of water and evaluate the role of the ice-dammed lake within this context.

How to cite: BInder, D., Mertl, S., Citterio, M., Hillerup-Larsen, S., Langley, K., Walter, F., and Eibl, E. P. S.: On-ice seismicity of a rapidly-rising jökulhlaup cycle at the A.P. Olsen Ice Cap, NE-Greenland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5685, 2022.

EGU22-6348 | Presentations | SM7.1

Hydro-sediment-morphodynamic process of landslide-induced barrier lake 

Ji Li, Zhixian Cao, and Alistair Borthwick

A large landslide impacting a river may cause a multi-phase chain of hazards, comprising landslide-generated waves, inundation as a barrier lake develops upstream a landslide dam arising from rapid sediment deposition, and downstream flooding due to barrier lake outburst. Two major landslides (each of volume ~ 107 m3) occurred successively on 10th October and 3rd November 2018 at Baige village, Tibet, China. Both landslides led to a natural dam that completely blocked the Jinsha River, along with a barrier lake filled with upstream river inflow. Although the first barrier lake breached naturally, a significant quantity of residual material from the first landslide dam was left behind without being eroded. After the second landslide occurred, a flood channel was urgently constructed to facilitate an artificial breach of the barrier lake as it formed. Here a computational investigation is presented of the hydro-sediment-morphodynamic processes of the Baige barrier lake, using a recent 2D double layer-averaged two-phase flow model. This is the first modelling study of the whole field and whole processes for the formation and outburst of a landslide-induced barrier lake as well as the resultant floods, without evoking presumptions on dam breach (which have prevailed for decades and bear much uncertainty). The computed results agree well with field observations in terms of landslide-generated waves, landslide dam morphology, stage and discharge hydrographs at the dam site and downstream flood hydrographs. The artificial flood channel is shown to be effective for alleviating downstream inundation. Relatively low inflow discharge and large initial landslide volume favour landslide dam and barrier lake formation, but delay the outburst and downstream flood. The present 2D double layer-averaged two-phase model holds great promise for assessing future landslide-induced multi-hazard chains in rivers, and informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.

How to cite: Li, J., Cao, Z., and Borthwick, A.: Hydro-sediment-morphodynamic process of landslide-induced barrier lake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6348, 2022.

EGU22-7190 | Presentations | SM7.1

Advancing seismic processing of the Skaftá jökulhlaup in 2015, Iceland 

Thoralf Dietrich, Eva P.S. Eibl, Daniel Binder, Fabian Lindner, and Sebastian Heimann

Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a recurring hazard in Alpine environments and can occur in orogenies with steep topography and short subglacial flood paths. In Iceland, the topography can be more flat and longer distances can be travelled below the ice. There, the locally named jökulhlaups can propagate tens of kilometers before emerging to the surface. It is difficult to monitor remote places, especially water movement below extensive icecaps. Permanent monitoring stations on ice are difficult to maintain. Off the ice, the networks are too sparse. By contrast, temporarily installed seismic arrays provide a tool to locate the flood front and issue early warnings of the subsequent flood of areas below the glacier. This is possible, as the flood-associated seismic signals migrate significantly during the event.

Seismic array analysis is in general a suitable method to locate weak, distant seismic events and observe floods. However, locations of long-lasting, emergent signals such as tremor are difficult to analyze. Due to the lack of clear onsets, travel time estimates are usually not possible. The location depends on other methods and the azimuthal station coverage. From 30 September to 3 October 2015, a flood drained from the eastern Skaftá cauldron in Iceland, reaching a peak discharge of 3000 m3/s in the Skaftá river. The seismic data were analysed using classical fk-analysis (Eibl et al. 2020). Here we advance the seismic processing including Pyrocko-based modules cake and parstack, and matched-field processing that allows to mute for example dominant noise sources. This helps to address the following questions: Can we detect signals of the flood along the uppermost part of the flood path? Can we detect the seismic signal during the subglacial flood propagation on an array which is dominated by river noise? Can we enhance the characteristics when correlating in the time domain? Our goal is to refine the location of the seismic tremor to enhance our understanding on the tremor generation and flood propagation, but also to test whether the analysis is stable enough to apply it to other floods of similar systems e.g. Grimsvötn.

How to cite: Dietrich, T., Eibl, E. P. S., Binder, D., Lindner, F., and Heimann, S.: Advancing seismic processing of the Skaftá jökulhlaup in 2015, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7190, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7190, 2022.

EGU22-7701 | Presentations | SM7.1

Bayesian inversion of shear wave velocity profile based on dispersion curve 

Xuanhao Wang, Zijun Cao, and Wenqi Du

Dispersion curve inversion is a key step of analyzing data from multichannel surface wave method (MASW) for investigating the shear wave velocity-depth (vs-h) profile. The profile is usually simplified to be a stratification model consisting of horizontal and homogenous layers. Model parameters include the number (N) and thicknesses (h) of layers and shear wave velocity (vs) in each layer. The N represents model complexity. The larger N value is, the more complex the model is. A model that is too complex is prone to overfitting. The opposite is true for too simple models that underfit. Mathematically, the dispersion curve inversion problem is ill-posed, that is, there are a number of stratification models of the vs-h profile with different N, h, and vs values resulting in identical, or at least, similar dispersion curves. Because the N value is usually unknown during the inversion, the model selection is necessary in which a model fitting well with data and proper model complexity is identified in a pool of competitive models.

Nonetheless, research is rare that addresses the model selection issue in dispersion curve inversion problems. Bayesian framework can be used in model selection by quantifying the uncertainty in the stratification model. In this study, critical issues of Bayesian frameworks for quantifying the uncertainty in stratification model selection are discussed, including Bayesian inversion with a variable or a fixed number of layers in stratification models. Then, the major difficulties in computing the posterior distribution and Bayesian model evidence for determining N are demonstrated and discussed, which are mainly caused by the high-dimensional and highly nonlinear likelihood function. Finally, the sensitivity of model complexity to the error associated with the dispersion curve is explored preliminarily.

How to cite: Wang, X., Cao, Z., and Du, W.: Bayesian inversion of shear wave velocity profile based on dispersion curve, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7701, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7701, 2022.

EGU22-8074 | Presentations | SM7.1

Experimental study on the failure modes and process of the overtopping breaching of noncohesive landslide dams 

Xinghua Zhu, Yongchuang Kang, and Jinwen Kong

The failure of landslide dams is a sudden geological disaster, with its formation and failure greatly threatening the security of local people’s lives and property. In this research, we conducted 12 sets of model experiments, considering the influence of different angle of flume bed, dam heights, and downstream slopes on the process of overtopping breaching of noncohesive landslide dams. Based on these experimental results, we analyzed the characteristics of the longitudinal and transverse evolution, and outburst discharge of landslide dams in detail. At first, we divided the failure process of landslide dams into four stages, including initiation, headward erosion, downcutting erosion, and riverbed rebalancing. In addition, the quantitative analysis of breaching evolution model and the numerical method for simulating landslide dam failure due to overtopping has also been introduced in this research. This paper provides the research basis for the following two papers, which also provide a scientific reference for the prevention and mitigation of landslide dams.

How to cite: Zhu, X., Kang, Y., and Kong, J.: Experimental study on the failure modes and process of the overtopping breaching of noncohesive landslide dams, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8074, 2022.

EGU22-8259 | Presentations | SM7.1

Seismic Response of A Large Deep-seated Rock Slope Revealed by Seismic Monitoring and Geological Surveys 

Shenghua Cui, Xiangjun Pei, and Hui Wang

In order to better understand the influence factors of the seismic response of the deep-seated unstable rock slope, we installed four high-sensitivity three-component integrated seismometers on Shidaguan slope (SDG slope) in Mao County, Sichuan Province, China. One of the seismometers was located at the stable part of SDG slope and at the highest elevation, while the other three were located in the deformation area of SDG slope. Nearly 100 sets of shallow source seismic data were acquired over a three-year period of seismic monitoring. Meanwhile, we carried out a detailed geological surveys by electrical resistivity tomography and drilling. Taking the monitoring point located at the stable part as a reference point, the peak acceleration obtained by the three seismometers located in the deformed area was compared to it. By this way, it is revealed that the seismic response of the reference point was the weakest, although it was at the highest elevation. The same phenomenon was obtained using the spectral ratio horizontal-to-vertical component of the seismic records (referred to here as HVSR). This is because that the fractured rock mass can act as a resonator, causing standing waves to develop in the broken rock mass. And the surface, as a free face, could show the strong ground shaking response. At the same time, we found that the seismic response was different for the three monitoring points in the deformed area of SDG slope. The seismic response of the deformed body with large thickness is smaller than that of the deformed body with small thickness. In order to analyse the reasons for the different amplification, we discussed the relationship between the amplification and the physical properties of rock mass. Rock mass with low resistivity and RQD caused seismic response amplification. However, this amplification was suppressed by that rock mass which exhibits viscoelasticity. The amplification of the ground shaking response would be influenced by the lithofacies difference degree in unstable areas, which should be taken into account when constructing buildings in landslide-prone mountainous areas.

How to cite: Cui, S., Pei, X., and Wang, H.: Seismic Response of A Large Deep-seated Rock Slope Revealed by Seismic Monitoring and Geological Surveys, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8259, 2022.

EGU22-8573 | Presentations | SM7.1

Vp/Vs Temporal Variation as Precursor Anomalies for the 2018 Palu Earthquake 

Angga Setiyo Prayogo, Retno Agung Prasetyo, Yusuf Hadi Perdana, Agustya Adi Martha, Rahmat Setyo Yuliatmoko, Supriyanto Rohadi, Nelly Florida Riama, and Rahmat Triyono

The Palu earthquake on September 28, 2018 with a magnitude of Mw 7.5 was one of the most destructive earthquakes in Indonesia. This earthquake also caused an underwater avalanche and caused a tsunami along the coast of the Palu bay. The source of the earthquake was the tectonic activity of the Palukoro fault. Until now, several research methods on earthquake precursors around the world have tried to find out whether there are long-term and short-term natural clues before the occurrence of a large and destructive earthquake. In this study, we examined the precursor anomaly of the earthquake in the Palukoro fault area using the least squares calculation method to obtain Vp/Vs by referring to the Wadati diagram. We used detailed earthquake catalog data from the nearest BMKG Station from the source, namely data on the arrival time of P and S waves from all earthquake events in the Palukoro Fault area from 2017 to 2017. 2020. The results show an anomaly pattern on the monthly Vp/Vs chart. The decrease in the value of Vp/Vs by an average of 6% occurred within a span of 9 months before the main Palu earthquake. Vp/Vs variations are an indication of the presence of tectonic stress and strain forces before an earthquake so that it can be used as an indication of earthquake precursors.

How to cite: Prayogo, A. S., Prasetyo, R. A., Perdana, Y. H., Martha, A. A., Yuliatmoko, R. S., Rohadi, S., Riama, N. F., and Triyono, R.: Vp/Vs Temporal Variation as Precursor Anomalies for the 2018 Palu Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8573, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8573, 2022.

EGU22-9078 | Presentations | SM7.1

Accuracy of locating earthquakes and landslides in sparse seismic network with ambient noise Empirical Green’s Functions 

Shuofan Wang, Sidao Ni, Jun Xie, and Xiangfang Zeng

Earthquakes and landslides threaten the safety of human life and property. Fast and accurate location of earthquakes and landslides is critical to disaster mitigation and early warning of the secondary hazards. Hazards locating is a difficult issue in a remote region with sparse seismic network due to low resolution of the velocity structure model. Green’s functions from ambient seismic noises contain the information characterizing the anomalous velocity structure along the propagation path, and it can be used to calibrate effects due to the uncertainty of velocity structure, thereby improving the hazard location accuracy. In this study, we select the 2008 Wudu Ms5.5 earthquake, China, and a large landslide occurred in Nuugaatsiaq, Greenland, on 17 June 2017 as examples, to assess the accuracy of the relative location method based on Green’s functions from ambient seismic noises. The location result of the landslide is about 2.5 km away from the site given by satellite image, which is better than the result based on traditional location method, with a deviation up to ~17 km. Subsequently, we test some impact factors of the location accuracy via the 2008 Wudu earthquake, such as the epicentral distance of the reference stations and the networks with different sparseness. It shows that using a reference station within 30 km and about 4 remote stations for relocation, the relocation accuracy is about 5 km. Our results demonstrate that this algorithm can provide accurate location of earthquake and landslide with seismographic stations in global and regional networks, thus providing timely assistance to early warning of secondary hazards.

How to cite: Wang, S., Ni, S., Xie, J., and Zeng, X.: Accuracy of locating earthquakes and landslides in sparse seismic network with ambient noise Empirical Green’s Functions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9078, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9078, 2022.

EGU22-11066 | Presentations | SM7.1 | Highlight

Bridging the data gap: seismo-acoustic advances from ridgelines to rivers 

Danica Roth, Mel Zhang, Valerie Sahakian, Jill Marshall, Ge Jin, Aleksei Titov, Matthew Siegfried, Claire Masteller, and Hayden Jacobson

Continuous, high resolution records provided by seismo-acoustic data are particularly valuable in studying processes that occur stochastically or in settings that are traditionally challenging to observe. The scarcity of data on these processes and their controls is largely responsible for a longstanding gap between event-scale observations and our ability to predict landscape or system behavior over larger scales. In this contribution, we discuss two ongoing studies in which seismo-acoustic methods are beginning to bridge this gap to enable new insights on the coupling between surface or near-surface processes and environmental controls.

Heavily instrumented small-scale studies (e.g., Marshall, 2018) have recently demonstrated that transmission of wind energy by plant roots plays an important role in the mechanics of soil production on hillslopes. At present, however, this process is entirely unconstrained at larger scales, though vegetation is known to be a primary driver of physical and chemical bedrock weathering. Seismic monitoring may open the door to studying how interactions between wind and vegetation impact rock weathering at scales relevant to human infrastructure, hazards and the global cycling of biogeochemical mass fluxes. Here we use data recorded by the US Transportable Array in Alaska to build on previous work (Dietze et al, 2015) exploring the role of trees in moderating the relationship between wind speeds and seismic activity. We examine rain-free, high-wind events across variations in vegetation cover and lithology to isolate the seismic signature of trees blowing in the wind and ask how their contributions to regional weathering budgets may evolve in a changing climate. 

In contrast, river-generated signals recorded by riverbank seismometers have been far more extensively studied, but remain challenging to interpret due to the reach- or regional-scale integration of many sources, processes and materials that are spatially heterogeneous and may covary in time. Recent advances in fiber optic distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) technology show promise for addressing some of these challenges by resolving signal sources over smaller scales. DAS systems provide continuous records of ground motion similar to large-N arrays of single-component accelerometers or geophones, but can be tens of kilometers in length with spatial resolution of meters and frequencies from millihertz to kilohertz. We present the first report on a DAS deployment in a river, focusing on meter-scale spatial variations in the signal recorded by a cable submerged along the thalweg of Clear Creek in Golden, CO. We leverage this novel dataset to reveal new insight into the relationship between the turbulence-generated seismo-acoustic frequency spectrum and river morphology.

 

References

Dietze, M., Burtin, A., Simard, S., & Hovius, N. (2015). The mediating role of trees - transfer and feedback mechanisms of wind-driven seismic activity. EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (p. 5118).

Marshall, J.A. (2018). From ice to trees, surprising insights into past and present processes that sculpt our earth. AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (Vol. 2018, pp. EP44A-01).

How to cite: Roth, D., Zhang, M., Sahakian, V., Marshall, J., Jin, G., Titov, A., Siegfried, M., Masteller, C., and Jacobson, H.: Bridging the data gap: seismo-acoustic advances from ridgelines to rivers, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11066, 2022.

  Bhopya K., Ghosal D., Verma S., Srivastav H., Verma S., Vikas

 The ongoing collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates has been accumulating strain along the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) causing the Sub-Himalaya highly vulnerable to Earthquakes. To examine seismic vulnerability in a hazard-prone area,  a complete understanding on its lithological properties like resonance frequency, shear wave velocity, bedrock depth, and thickness of overlying soft sediments is essential. As the study area spans from Madarsa Darul Quran to Mohand along the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) and lies in an earthquake-prone area, we record seismic ambient noise over twelve measuring points using a three-component portable seismograph (Tromino) with the natural frequency of 0.1 Hz. We carry out the HVSR (horizontal to the vertical spectral ratio) study on the recorded data using the Nakamura Method which is a technique for estimating the resonance frequency and site amplification caused by different stratigraphic units underlain by the top of the bedrock. The variable resonance frequency has been identified in this region in the range of 0.42 to 4.8 Hz, which indicates this region is prone to site amplification as overlain by Doon fan deposits. We invert the P-velocity (Vp), S-velocity (Vs), and density (ρ) by using Monte Carlo Inversion Method and identified three different stratigraphic units in this region. The top has a thickness of 3 meters with a mean Vs, Vp, and ρ as 218 m/s, 385 m/s, and, respectively. The second layer has a thickness of 6 meters with a mean Vs, Vp, and ρ of 406 m/s, 725 m/s, and 1.7 g/cm3, respectively. The bedrock depth in this region is 127 meters with a mean Vs, Vp, and ρ of 582 m/s, 1238 m/s, and 1.8 g/cm3 , respectively. This study will further help in response analysis up to a depth of bedrock.

 

How to cite: Bhopya Naik, K.: Site Characterization of Mohand Region along Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) using passive HVSR method, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12520, 2022.

EGU22-135 | Presentations | NH9.2

Characterizing social vulnerability for climate impact assessment at global scale 

Lena Reimann, Elco Koks, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen Aerts

Every year, extreme events caused by climate-related hazards result in severe impacts globally. These impacts are expected to increase in the future due to both climate change and population growth in exposed locations. However, impacts are not only driven by exposure to extreme events, but also by the population’s vulnerability to these hazards, determined by individual characteristics such as age, gender, and income. Thus far, global-scale climate risk assessments account for social vulnerability to a limited degree. To address this gap, we produce spatially explicit global datasets of variables that can be used for characterizing social vulnerability. We further combine these data into a globally consistent and spatially explicit Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI), which will be made publicly available along with the input variables. To explore the value of the SoVI in characterizing social vulnerability, we validate it with the observed impacts (e.g., fatalities, damages) of past extreme events. To do so, we overlay the spatial vulnerability characteristics with recently published flood maps of observed flooding events across the globe, also testing how each vulnerability variable performs individually in explaining the observed impacts. Our analysis helps to develop a more in-depth understanding of the characteristics that drive social vulnerability globally, along with their spatial distribution. Therefore, our results can support decision-making in developing strategies that reduce social vulnerability to climate-related hazards, for instance related to spatial planning, socioeconomic development, and adaptation.

How to cite: Reimann, L., Koks, E., de Moel, H., and Aerts, J.: Characterizing social vulnerability for climate impact assessment at global scale, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-135, 2022.

EGU22-1073 | Presentations | NH9.2

Scenarios of social-environmental extremes 

Gabriele Messori, Maria Rusca, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre

In a rapidly changing world, what is today an unprecedented environmental extreme event may soon become the norm. Such unprecedented events, and the related disasters, will likely have highly unequal socio-economic impacts. We investigate the relation between genesis of unprecedented events, accumulation and distribution of risk, and recovery trajectories across different societal groups, thus conceptualising the events as social-environmental extremes. We specifically propose an analytical approach to unravel the complexity of future extremes and multiscalar societal responses-from households to national governments and from immediate impacts to longer term recovery. This combines the physical characteristics of the extremes with examinations of how culture, politics, power and policy visions shape societal responses to unprecedented events. As end result, we build scenarios of how different societal groups may be affected by, and recover from, plausible future unprecedented extreme events. This new approach, at the nexus between social and natural sciences, has the concrete advantage of providing an impact-focused vision of future social-environmental risks, beyond what is achievable within conventional disciplinary boundaries. In this presentation I will illustrate an application to a future extreme flooding event in Houston. However, the approach is flexible and applicable to a wide range of extreme events.

 

How to cite: Messori, G., Rusca, M., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Scenarios of social-environmental extremes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1073, 2022.

EGU22-2691 | Presentations | NH9.2

Public perceptions of flood and drought risk: Gender differences in Italy and Sweden 

Elena Mondino, Elena Raffetti, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre

Hydrological extremes still cause severe damage worldwide. Understanding people’s perceptions of drought and flood risk, and their changes over time, can help researchers, practitioners, and policymakers assist communities at risk. In particular, identifying and highlighting gender differences in the perception of hydrological risk is fundamental to promote fair disaster risk reduction policies which take such differences into account. To this end, we collected national survey data three times over a year on risk perception, knowledge, and preparedness in regard to floods and droughts in Italy and Sweden. Preliminary results show that: i) the perceptions of drought and flood risk are heavily intertwined; and ii) women show a higher fluctuation in perception over time compared to men, especially when it comes to floods. These results and their implications show how important it is to integrate gender into the management of floods and drought and into risk communication, as well as to promote policies that simultaneously address flood and drought risk.

How to cite: Mondino, E., Raffetti, E., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Public perceptions of flood and drought risk: Gender differences in Italy and Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2691, 2022.

EGU22-5347 | Presentations | NH9.2

Typologies of community risk to climate change: fostering climate adaption networks 

Nils Riach and Rüdiger Glaser

Adapting to the effects of climate change will increasingly become a task of municipal planning and implementation in the coming years. This ranges from the consideration of increasing heat days to the retention of heavy rainfall. Climate related hazards, together with their dynamic interplay of exposure and vulnerability pose considerable adverse consequences for municipalities and need to be addressed through risk management plans. While this is understood in research and is increasingly being implemented in cities, it is found that particularly small and medium-sized municipalities often lack (1) the necessary evidence base for planning, (2) adequate capacities to engage in adaptation, and (3) practical analytical tools and informal planning instruments for adapting to the unavoidable consequences of climate change. Identifying communities that are similarly impacted and thus show comparable adaption needs can help local stakeholders in forming climate adaption networks. Here they can pool resources, develop solutions and exchange knowledge on the highly contextual challenges of climate change adaptation.

We derive cluster based typologies of communities in the German state of Baden-Württemberg, which show assimilable characteristics in climatic hazards, exposure and vulnerability.   While cluster analysis is often used to differentiate patterns of climate change, few assessments have included societal variables. We therefore couple a ten-member regional climate model ensemble (RCP8.5, 1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100) with socio-economic data in so-called bivariate climate impact maps. This allows for statewide community specific conclusions on climate related risks. Statistical cluster analysis enables grouping of communities based on similar risks and adaption needs. Our approach provides a data driven basis for so-called climate adaption networks, which may foster the implementation of communal adaption efforts.

How to cite: Riach, N. and Glaser, R.: Typologies of community risk to climate change: fostering climate adaption networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5347, 2022.

EGU22-5537 | Presentations | NH9.2

Gender and social inclusion in disaster risk reduction and management: Key learning and effective practices 

Alison Sneddon, Mirianna Budimir, Sarah Brown, and Issy Nelder

Resilience to natural hazards varies widely within and between populations. People living in the same area affected by the same hazard event will experience it differently depending on their specific vulnerabilities and capacities. The social inequalities which drive differential resilience vary based on the norms of a given context, but result in resources being harder for some people to reach and use than others.

These inequalities are often invisible in traditional data, and therefore the needs of the most vulnerable are not addressed in disaster risk reduction and management policy and practice. The impacts of disasters therefore reinforce and worsen existing inequalities as already vulnerable people are left further and further behind.

This presentation will focus on new learning about the relationship between gender and social vulnerabilities and resilience to natural hazard-related disasters in a range of contexts with three key aims:

  • To share key learning about differential disaster resilience and requirements of early warning and disaster risk management implementation
  • To explore key tools which have been piloted, tested, and developed to improve knowledge and understanding of resilience
  • To discuss effective and practical ways to apply these tools going forward in research, policy, and practice.

The presentation will draw on experiences and findings from projects conducted in the Philippines, Bangladesh, Malawi, Nepal, and Dominica to research gender and social inclusion in relation to early warning systems, disaster preparedness and response, and disaster risk financing.

The session will examine the drivers of social inequalities and their impacts relating to risk knowledge, monitoring and warning, communication and dissemination, and response capability, sharing examples of the different needs, considerations, and priorities relating to early warning and disaster risk management within communities.

We’ll then explore approaches to data layering and our Missing Voices methodology as key tools to identify and understand factors, including intersectional factors, influencing social and economic resilience to natural hazards.

How to cite: Sneddon, A., Budimir, M., Brown, S., and Nelder, I.: Gender and social inclusion in disaster risk reduction and management: Key learning and effective practices, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5537, 2022.

EGU22-6022 | Presentations | NH9.2

Forensic disaster analysis of the 2021 summer floods in Western Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands – Findings from the PERC study 

Viktor Rözer, Jonathan Ulrich, Michael Szönyi, Francisco Ianni, Finn Laurien, Teresa Deubelli, Karen MacClune, and Rachel Norton

Severe flooding in Western Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands in July 2021, particularly along the rivers Erft, Ahr and Meuse rivers has led to more than 240 causalities and an estimated damage of 29,2 billion EUR in Germany alone. The high human and economic costs of the event brought systemic problems in the flood risk management system to light and raised questions about the limits of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. Using a forensic disaster analysis approach, the Post Event Review Capability (PERC), we systematically analyse the strengths and weaknesses of the flood risk management systems in the affected regions, the emergency response and recovery to draw lessons for future disaster risk management and climate change adaptation strategies. For that, PERC synthesizes existing information about the event from the hydro-meteorological characteristics of the physical impact and combines it with qualitative interviews with first responders, flood risk managers and other directly affected stakeholders. We will present key findings from the PERC study on the 2021 floods including the main drivers behind the high casualties and potential shortcomings in the emergency response and recovery as well as recommendations and opportunities for improvement.

How to cite: Rözer, V., Ulrich, J., Szönyi, M., Ianni, F., Laurien, F., Deubelli, T., MacClune, K., and Norton, R.: Forensic disaster analysis of the 2021 summer floods in Western Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands – Findings from the PERC study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6022, 2022.

Denmark is one of the most vulnerable countries in Europe with respect to increasing risk of sea surges. A two hundred year paradigm of land reclamation close to the sea must therefore be revisited with the intent of retaining flexibility and avoiding lock-ins while recognizing the unintended consequences of new adaptation strategies. Potential solutions continue to face considerable structural, spatial, temporal and definitional challenges requiring collaboration between communities, local actors and scientists. In the “Cities and rising sea levels” project scientists from different research disciplines including (landscape) architecture, regional and local planning, and hydrology collaborate with local actors in order to tackle these challenges. The aim is to establish a common terminology and identify common scenarios, strategies, and indicators of successful and less successful urban developments in coastal areas over space and time.

 

One of the objectives in the project is to establish a coherent, spatially explicit framework for assessing strategies for sustainable urban development (SUD) of coastal communities to facilitate mediation and decision-making for stakeholders involved in adaptation and urban planning processes. As a starting point, our study identified a total of >2200 indicators across 50 references on SUD and respective additional >1600 indicators across 28 references on coastal adaptation. By means of systemic reviews and analyses, the study builds upon previous reviews on indicators and expands beyond by laying a clear focus on sustainable adaptation in coastal areas.

 

Extracted indicators sets of SUD and coastal adaptation are compared and similarities as well as differences are pointed out and analysed. Interestingly none of the identified indicators of SUD include a direct representation of climate risks or determinants of risk i.e. vulnerability and exposure, neither as conceptual variables driving risk, nor the assessment of adaptive capacity. At the same time, indicators of coastal adaptation disregard liveability and human wellbeing as crucial aspects of urban planning, in contrast to SUD indicators where they represent guiding principles. This illustrates a clear gap between adaptation practices and other professions involved in urban planning processes.

 

In order to uncover sustainable pathways to adapt, adaptation must be an integral part of sustainable development. The study aims at understanding differences in performance assessments and to suggest steps forward to better integrate SUD and coastal adaptation. Here, the study will proceed by operationalizing a combined and integrated indicator framework in the form of spatio-temporal assessments. The first results of these assessments will be presented and synergies and tradeoffs between a risk lens and SUD will be highlighted.

How to cite: Eggert, A., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., and Löwe, R.: Comparative Analysis of Indicators for Sustainable Urban Development and Coastal Adaptation - Uncovering Barriers and Potentials of Integrated Assessments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6341, 2022.

EGU22-6600 | Presentations | NH9.2

Psychosocial response to risk mitigation measures in Iceland 

Stephanie Matti, Helga Ögmundardottír, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, and Uta Reichardt

Land use planning has been espoused as a key measure to decrease the risk of climate change-relatd disasters including landslides, however there is a dearth of research on how it affects the psychosocial wellbeing of affected people. This ethnographic study examines the risk management of the Svínafellsheiði fracture in south-east Iceland, where 60 to 100 million cubic metres of debris is predicted to fall onto the glacier below, and cause flooding from or a tsunami in the proglacial lake. A no-build zone was put in place between 2018 and 2020 to prevent a further increase in the number of people exposed to the hazard. Our results indicate that the no-build zone had both direct and indirect adverse effects on the psychosocial wellbeing of those affected. It caused frustration about a perceived inability to make changes to home and businesses, people feeling that their future was in limbo or on hold, and people questioning their future in the area. These direct psychosocial effects also had the knock-on effect of causing people to talk more about the risk, thereby undermining a key coping mechanism. 

 

How to cite: Matti, S., Ögmundardottír, H., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., and Reichardt, U.: Psychosocial response to risk mitigation measures in Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6600, 2022.

EGU22-10272 | Presentations | NH9.2

Structuring citizens’ risk perception and knowledge of flooding events for planning purposes: The case study of Brindisi, Italy 

Stefania Santoro, Vincenzo Totaro, Ruggiero Lovreglio, Domenico Camarda, Vito Iacobellis, and Umberto Fratino

The effects of flooding on urban environment and social vulnerability are challenging issues in flood risk management and long-term planning. Flood risk is among the main causes of social crisis, as it can drastically affect the socioeconomic status of a community and an increase in flood events can significantly inhibit the political system of land and emergency management, social security, human welfare, and the economy.

In recent decades, several studies have illustrated how the probability of occurrence of a flood event can be modified by human-dependent factors, such as, among others, climate and land-use changes. 

For this reason, flood risk management policies are evolving to redirect the actions of policymakers from purely physical defensive measures toward integrated management and planning strategies, placing greater emphasis on the complexity of the interaction between social and physical processes.

The complexity of physical processes lies in the wide variety of underlying phenomena that produce different types of flooding, while that of social processes can be reconducted to their characterization, given by human-related factors such as risk perception, emotions, bonds, context, and behaviors. Structuring the complexity of these two systems could support flood risk to define the elements/classes of citizens that make a social system vulnerable.

Based on these premises, the present work aims in modelling the relationship between flood risk and community, starting from an analysis of social perception and knowledge of protective measures, and exploiting a methodology based on an online survey used to collect data, and on Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests used for their analysis.

The methodology was experimentally applied to the city of Brindisi (Puglia region, Southern Italy), which is potentially subject to floods of different nature, as fluvial, coastal and pluvial floods and dam overflows.

The results suggest that perceptions of flood risk depend on intrinsic components of individuals, primarily related to dimensions of perception such as trust in public strategies and risk communication. Slightly higher perception emerged for those living in risk areas, but the results of the remainder show that there is a non-negligible perception even where there is apparently no source of risk. This is reflected in the varying nature of the flooding that has affected the city. The presence of disabled persons in the household does not act in any way neither in the perception nor in the knowledge of the measures; the previous experience seems to have little weight in reference to the perception and almost null on the knowledge of the measures. This element is probably linked to the temporal distance from the last event that caused serious damage to the community. Knowledge of protective measures appears to be uniformly low for each category of citizens and territorial area, in particular for adolescents, a recurring category also on other investigated dimensions.

This work represents the first step for the development of a multi-agent model, as developed by the science of intelligent systems, able to analyze more deeply the relationships between natural and social systems and to bring out elements to support flood risk management.

How to cite: Santoro, S., Totaro, V., Lovreglio, R., Camarda, D., Iacobellis, V., and Fratino, U.: Structuring citizens’ risk perception and knowledge of flooding events for planning purposes: The case study of Brindisi, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10272, 2022.

EGU22-11200 | Presentations | NH9.2

Inspecting the link between climate and human displacement with Explainable AI and Causal inference 

José María Tárraga Habas, Michele Ronco, Maria Teresa Miranda, Eva Sevillano Marco, Qiang Wang, María Piles, Jordi Muñoz, and Gustau Camps-Valls

On average, more than 21 million forced human displacements were reported as result of weather-related events between 2008 and 2020 worldwide. This is a major concern due to the increment trend in intensity and frequency of weather hazards. Breaking down the figures, the impact is more severe in low-middle income countries, where most of the natural hazards take place and adaptation strategies are lacking. Implementing efficient and operational policy responses requires a quantitative analysis of the nexus between climate-induced displacement. So far the study of this phenomenon has been often limited to qualitative assessments or to correlation measures from regression linear models, not accounting for the inherent complexity of the problem. The multicausal nature of human mobility and data availability present significant research challenges. We apply two methodological approaches that use machine-learning to close these gaps, namely addressing both rapid-onset (e.g. floods) and slow-onset (e.g. droughts) disaster types. The former uses the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) global database of displacements triggered by floods and storms at disaster level, socioeconomic (RWI Meta Data4Good, Global Human Modification Layer, Education Expenditure), and Earth-Observation variables: meteorological (CHIRPS, ERA5) and environmental (NASA ASTER SRTM DEM, MODIS NDVI vegetation index). Explainable AI techniques enable to open the black box of random forest models and were applied at the global scale: Shapley values are used to investigate the contributions of the main drivers thereby quantitatively addressing the climate-displacement nexus. Results are consistent with the hazard, exposure and vulnerability concept discussed in literature and findings reveal that socioeconomic factors greatly mediate displacement magnitudes. The slow-onset study is being explored at the local scale at district level, currently focused on the effects of droughts on displaced populations in Somalia using UNCHR PRMN displacement dataset, remote sensing variables (CHIRPS, MODIS LST), conflict (ACLED) and market prices time-series (FSNAU, WFP VAM Unit). Beyond correlations analysis, causation alongside time-lag effects for the drivers of drought-induced displacement are assessed using the PCMCI algorithm. Results in specific districts indicate that decreases in vegetation in conjunction with cattle price drops are driving drought displacement, revealing these factors are in need for targeted intervention. Albeit the same method applied to other districts in Somalia returns no causal link among considered variables, taking these findings into account, we are able to propose district-wise recommendations on how to improve the quality of the data: eg. field data collection guidelines, what other data input is required, and where sampling efforts should be directed. 

How to cite: Tárraga Habas, J. M., Ronco, M., Miranda, M. T., Sevillano Marco, E., Wang, Q., Piles, M., Muñoz, J., and Camps-Valls, G.: Inspecting the link between climate and human displacement with Explainable AI and Causal inference, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11200, 2022.

EGU22-11251 | Presentations | NH9.2

The use of impact chains and Bayesian Network Analysis to assess flood risk dynamics in the Lower Mono River Basin, Benin 

Mario Wetzel, Lorina Schudel, Adrian Almoradie, Kossi Komi, Julien Adounkpe, Yvonne Walz, and Michael Hagenlocher

River floods are a common and often devastating environmental hazard causing severe damages, loss of lives and livelihoods, notably for the most vulnerable. Understanding the root causes, drivers, patterns and dynamics of flood risks and associated uncertainties is important to inform adequate risk management. Yet, a lack of understanding the highly dynamic processes, interactions, uncertainties, and the inclusion of participatory methods and transdisciplinary approaches in risk assessments remains a limiting factor. In many flood-prone regions of the world, data scarcity poses another serious challenge for risk assessments. Addressing the above, we developed an impact chain via desk study and expert consultation to reveal key drivers of flood risk for agricultural livelihoods in the Lower Mono River Basin of Benin and their interlinkages – a region that is both highly prone to flooding and can be considered data-scarce. Particularly, the dynamic formation of vulnerability and its interplay with hazard and exposure components is highlighted.

Based on a simplified version of the impact chain which was validated in a participatory manner during a virtual expert workshop, an alpha-level Bayesian Network was created to further explore these interactions. The model was applied to an exemplary what-if scenario for the study area in Benin. Based on the above, this study critically evaluates the benefits and limitations of integrating the two methodological approaches to better understand and simulate risk dynamics in data scarce environments. The study finds that impact chains are a useful approach to conceptualize interactions of risk drivers. Particularly in combination with a Bayesian Network approach the method enables an improved understanding of how different risk drivers interact within the system and allows for dynamic assessments of what-if scenarios, for example, to inform resilience building strategies.

How to cite: Wetzel, M., Schudel, L., Almoradie, A., Komi, K., Adounkpe, J., Walz, Y., and Hagenlocher, M.: The use of impact chains and Bayesian Network Analysis to assess flood risk dynamics in the Lower Mono River Basin, Benin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11251, 2022.

EGU22-12884 | Presentations | NH9.2

What can we learn from previous generations? Álftaver’s experience of the 1918 Katla eruption 

Guðrún Gísladóttir, Deanne Bird, and Emmanuel Pagneux

Residents in Álftaver, south Iceland, are very familiar with the 1918 Katla volcanic eruption, which caused rapid and catastrophic glacial outburst flooding of the area. Descriptions of the 1918 events, passed down by older generations, have become an important part of the collective memory. Based on oral and written history, this paper provides a vivid account, including detailed maps, of what people experienced and felt during the 1918 Katla eruption. It also considers how these experiences influence current-day perceptions and the impact this may have on behavior in relation to emergency response strategies. Until now, much of this history has only been accessible in Icelandic text and through oral stories. The aim of this paper is to unlock these stories for an international audience in an effort to advance understanding of volcanic eruptions and their impacts and, inform future emergency planning. Importantly, these descriptions tell us about the nature of the glacial outburst flood, with a ‘pre-flood’ devoid of ice and travelling at a much faster rate than the ice-laden main flood. As a future eruption of Katla may impact Álftaver, emergency response plans for glacial outburst floods were developed, and in March 2006 preliminary plans were tested in a full-scale evacuation exercise involving residents and emergency response groups. But Álftaver residents questioned the plans and were reluctant to follow evacuation orders during the exercise, as they felt their knowledge and the experience of their relatives during the 1918 Katla eruption, had not been taken into consideration. Residents were concerned that flood hazards, as well as tephra and lightning, were not appropriately accounted for by officials. In response to residents’ concerns, officials developed an alternative evacuation plan (Plan B) that builds on some of the experience and knowledge of Álftaver residents. However, residents were not involved in the development of ‘Plan B’ and they are not aware of what it constitutes or when it is to be implemented. This paper argues that more needs to be done to promote inclusive dialogue and the co-production of knowledge to ensure emergency response strategies adequately reflect and accommodate local knowledge, perspectives and planned behavior.

How to cite: Gísladóttir, G., Bird, D., and Pagneux, E.: What can we learn from previous generations? Álftaver’s experience of the 1918 Katla eruption, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12884, 2022.

EGU22-13432 | Presentations | NH9.2

Revisiting risk in a multi-hazard setting: the case of Cyclone Amphan occurring within the COVID-19 pandemic in the Indian Sundarbans 

Sumana Banerjee, Himanshu Shekhar, Davide Cotti, Edward Sparkes, Saskia Werners, and Michael Hagenlocher

Amidst a period of complete lockdown due  to COVID-19, the severe cyclonic storm Amphan made landfall in the Indian Sundarbans on 20 May 2020. The occurrence of a cyclone during  the pandemic warranted investigation of interconnected risks and impacts in this climate hotspot and eco-critical region. Based on a desk study, field observations, key informant interviews and expert consultations, this research focussed on better understanding direct and cascading risks and the associated impacts from the concurrence of the two hazards occurring simultaneously. Our analysis reveals that although the region has not experienced a high number of COVID-cases between March and August 2020, the presence of underlying vulnerabilities exposed the population to cascading effects caused by the pandemic-induced lockdown along with the compounding effect of the Cyclone Amphan. In the Indian Sundarbans, COVID-19 acted as an exogenous shock, but its interplay with interconnected vulnerabilities resulted in the emergence of disruptions of a systemic nature. This was particularly the case in the economic domain, with cascading impacts observed across the welfare, education, and employment sectors.  Cyclone Amphan, led to additional cascading impacts on these sectors, and affected other sectors such as health and infrastructure as well as biodiversity. Interventions such as introduction of new social protection schemes and community participation in cyclone preparedness measures have helped the system from facing a total collapse. However, some interventions that were implemented to mitigate impacts of these two concurring hazards somewhat counteracted one another. For example, while stringent COVID-19 interventions stressed on safety norms (including social distancing and stay at home orders), the hazard response protocol for Cyclone Amphan directed communities to evacuate their homes and move to communal shelters which were being used as quarantine units for returning migrant workers till before the cyclone. This caused concerns among the evacuated population, thus undermining the efficacy of the response effort. This case study underpins the need for moving from hazard-by-hazard approaches of understanding and managing risks towards integrated approaches that consider interconnected vulnerabilities, risks and impacts based on a systems perspective. Further, it also provides lessons for risk management in a multi-hazard and multi-risk setting besides sharing recommendations for better risk management in the Indian Sundarbans.

How to cite: Banerjee, S., Shekhar, H., Cotti, D., Sparkes, E., Werners, S., and Hagenlocher, M.: Revisiting risk in a multi-hazard setting: the case of Cyclone Amphan occurring within the COVID-19 pandemic in the Indian Sundarbans, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13432, 2022.

EGU22-179 | Presentations | NH9.1

Enabling dynamic modelling of global coastal flooding by defining storm tide hydrographs 

Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Dirk Eilander, Philip Ward, and Jeroen Aerts

Coastal flooding is driven by strong winds and low pressures in tropical and extratropical cyclones that generate a storm surge, and high tides. The combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide is defined as the storm tide. Currently over 600 million people live in coastal areas below 10 m elevation worldwide which is projected to increase to more than 1 billion people by 2050 under all Shared Economic Pathways. Towards the end of the 21st century these growing coastal populations will be increasingly at risk of flooding due to SLR. To gain understanding into the threat imposed by coastal flooding and identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard.

There are three main types of inundation models with complexity levels ranging from simple, to semi-advanced to advanced. Models capable of simulating inundation at the global scale follow a simple static approach. These models, often referred to as bathtub models, delineate the inundation zone by raising maximum water levels, that correspond to a return period, on a coastal DEM and select all areas that are below the specified water level height. The main limitations of this type of model is that they implicitly assume an infinite flood duration and do not capture relevant physical processes. Regional comparisons have shown that dynamic inundation models are much more accurate than static models in terms of flood extent and depth, and they can provide information on the flood duration.

In this study we develop a global dataset of storm tide hydrographs. These hydrographs represent the typical shape of an extreme sea level event at a certain location along the global coastline and can be used as boundary conditions for dynamic inundation models. This way we can move away from static to more advanced dynamic inundation models. To assess how different assumptions used for generating hydrographs influence the inundation extent and depth we perform a sensitivity analysis for several coastal regions.

How to cite: Dullaart, J., Muis, S., de Moel, H., Eilander, D., Ward, P., and Aerts, J.: Enabling dynamic modelling of global coastal flooding by defining storm tide hydrographs, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-179, 2022.

EGU22-450 | Presentations | NH9.1

Conceptual Flood Inundation Modelling: Computationally Efficient Methods for Large Data-scarce River Basins 

S L Kesav Unnithan, Basudev Biswal, Christoph Rüdiger, and Amit Kumar Dubey

India is one of the world's most flood-prone countries, with 113 million people exposed to floods. Large-scale hydrological models integrated with complicated Navier–Stokes based hydraulic, and inundation models traditionally address flood preparedness, control, and mitigation. In addition to being highly data-intensive at the fine spatial and temporal resolution, this approach has a considerable computational cost that limits real-time applications. We employ the parameter-free Dynamic Budyko (DB) hydrological model to map observed precipitation with gridded runoff to overcome data scarcity. We propose a time-efficient Slope-corrected, Calibration-free, Iterative Flood Routing and Inundation Model (SCI-FRIM) framework that can be used with any hydrological model to generate a probability map of inundation. To model the catastrophic flood extents that the state of Kerala in India experienced during August 2018, we use gridded 0.25 deg × 0.25 deg IMD precipitation data. We use a parameter-free iterative approach to update flood velocity by assuming that river velocity does not fluctuate geographically across a particular river network at a given time instant. We pre-compute the iterative velocity and model the relationship between flood velocity-discharge and discharge-inundation height for each reach by combining the globally available SRTM/ASTER DEMs with empirically obtained river-reach geometry data (JPL). We compute the reach slope from the absolute vertical error-prone DEM by segmenting the river network into a series of independent channels and extracting the relationship between the channel pixel's elevation and the pixel's distance to the pour point. We use the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) to map the probabilistic spatial extent corresponding to an ensemble of derived reach inundation heights. We then compare the proposed model with observed flood data points provided by the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA). The model captures up to 52% of 370,000 flood data points in a single run for the peak flood day within 15 minutes on a desktop computer. With reliable estimates of empirical bankfull discharge, the proposed model can achieve higher accuracy in lesser time.

How to cite: Unnithan, S. L. K., Biswal, B., Rüdiger, C., and Dubey, A. K.: Conceptual Flood Inundation Modelling: Computationally Efficient Methods for Large Data-scarce River Basins, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-450, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-450, 2022.

EGU22-2338 | Presentations | NH9.1

Lower magnitude volcanic eruptions as Global Catastrophic Risks 

Lara Mani, Asaf Tzachor, and Paul Cole

Large-magnitude volcanic eruptions have long been considered to pose a threat to the continued flourishing of humanity. The dominant narrative focuses on the nuclear-winter climatic scenarios that may develop as a result of a large-magnitude eruption (magnitudes 7+ on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)) propelling large quantities of ash and gas into our upper atmosphere and devastating global crop production. However, the probability of such an event remains rare, and this narrative fails to fully consider the vulnerability component of the risk equation. We propose that volcanic eruptions of even moderate magnitudes (VEI 3-6) could constitute a global catastrophic risk (events that might inflict damage to human welfare on a global scale) where the impacts of the eruption are amplified through cascading critical system failures.

Increased globalisation in our modern world has resulted in our overreliance on global critical system – networks and supply chains vital to the support and continued development of our societies (e.g. submarine cables, global shipping routes, transport and trade networks). We observe that many of these critical infrastructures and networks converge in regions where they could be exposed to moderate-scale volcanic eruptions (VEI 3-6). These regions of intersection, or pinch points, present localities where we have prioritised efficiency over resilience, and manufactured a new GCR landscape, presenting a scenario for global risk propagation. We present seven global pinch points, including the Strait of Malacca and the Mediterranean, which represent localities where disruption to any of these systems can result in a cascade of global disruptions. This is exemplified by the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull VEI 4 eruption which resulted in the closure of European airspace and cascaded to cause global disruption to just-in-time supply chains and transportation networks.

We suggest that volcanic risk assessments should incorporate interdisciplinary systems thinking in order to increase our resilience to volcanic GCRs.

How to cite: Mani, L., Tzachor, A., and Cole, P.: Lower magnitude volcanic eruptions as Global Catastrophic Risks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2338, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2338, 2022.

EGU22-2871 | Presentations | NH9.1

Current and Future Flood Risk from Tropical Cyclones in Puerto Rico Under 1.5°C and 2°C Climate Change 

Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Jeison Sosa, and Dann Mitchell

Small Island Developing States are some of the most at risk places to flooding caused by tropical cyclone rainfall. However, there is a mismatch between existing flood risk assessment in small islands, and the increasing severity of projected tropical cyclone rainfall under current and future climate change. This research aims to address this gap by presenting the first application of an event-based rainfall-driven hydrodynamic model in a small island, for the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. Applying an event set of 59,000 synthetic hurricane rainfall events, we represent hurricane rainfall spatially (~10km) and temporally (2-hourly), estimating flood hazard and population exposure at the island scale (9,100km2) at 20m model resolution using hydrodynamic model LISFLOOD-FP. Using this event-based approach, we aim to understand: i) what are the current estimates of population exposure to flooding from hurricane rainfall in Puerto Rico; and ii) how do these risk estimates change under 1.5°C and 2°C climate scenarios. We find that current population exposure to flooding from hurricane rainfall in Puerto Rico is high (8-9.80% of the population every 5 years), with an increase in population exposure of 1.60-15.20% and 0.70-22.30% under 1.5°C and 2°C climate change. This has critical implications for adaptation to more extreme flood risk in Puerto Rico, as well as underlining the important implications of the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target for small islands – a finding that is likely to be applicable to other small islands affected by tropical cyclones.

 

How to cite: Archer, L., Neal, J., Bates, P., Vosper, E., Sosa, J., and Mitchell, D.: Current and Future Flood Risk from Tropical Cyclones in Puerto Rico Under 1.5°C and 2°C Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2871, 2022.

EGU22-2895 | Presentations | NH9.1

GIS automation of large-scale flood vulnerability analysis for drainage basins, based on a single Digital Elevation Model 

Andrei Enea, Marina Iosub, and Cristian Constantin Stoleriu

In the context of climate change, probability of risk phenomena occurrence is more frequent and with greater intensity. This is especially valid for floods which cause significantly more damage and casualties, as flood-inducing conditions are met more often. The risk is emphasized by the fact that countless human settlements are located on the floodplain of river courses of different sizes and flow rates. The current study aims to detail an automatic GIS model that can easily compare drainage sub-basins of similar order, according to Horton-Strahler hierarchical classification, at large scale, for a given basin, based on morphometric parameters. This implies the use of a digital elevation model (DEM) as the only input layer, and setting a few parameters, in order to extract several quantifiable hydrological indicators, relevant to flood analysis. Some of the most relevant ones from the list are the elongation ratio, circularity ratio, relief ratio, roughness number, drainage density etc. All the functions have been integrated into a GIS tool, that would automatically aid in the fast creation of a final vector layer, that discerns between drainage basins with higher and lower degrees of relative vulnerability. This layer contains an attribute table with all the relevant parameters, as well as the result of the formula that assigns flood vulnerability values to each drainage basin, making possible the quantitative comparison between all the drainage sub-basins. The resulting table analysis is conducted in the background, based on the calculation of normalized values for each parameter, which are encompassed into a final vulnerability score. The model is easily applicable to most types of raster elevation layers, as long as they are in a projected coordinate system, regardless of pixel size. Furthermore, several functions were added to the model to mitigate potential errors that can occur in isolated cases, where the topography is particularly difficult to interpret by some native GIS tools. Therefore, this model is an easy to apply tool, that automatically identifies more vulnerable sub-basins, from a large drainage basin, over extended areas, with limited user-input, facilitating decision making in flood management, while providing quantifiable flood vulnerability results, in a very short period of time, without requiring extensive knowledge from the user.

How to cite: Enea, A., Iosub, M., and Stoleriu, C. C.: GIS automation of large-scale flood vulnerability analysis for drainage basins, based on a single Digital Elevation Model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2895, 2022.

EGU22-3122 | Presentations | NH9.1

Linking the relative importance of input uncertainties of a flood risk model with basin characteristics. 

Georgios Sarailidis, Francesca Pianosi, Thorsten Wagener, Rob Lamb, Kirsty Styles, and Stephen Hutchings

Floods are extreme natural hazards often with disastrous impacts on the economy and society. Flood risk assessments are required to better manage risk associated with floods. Nowadays, numerous flood risk models are available at various scales, from catchment to regional or even global scale. They involve a complex modelling chain that estimates risk as the product of probability of occurrence of an event (hazard) with its footprint (exposure) and the consequences over society and economy (vulnerability). Each component of this chain contains uncertainties, that propagate and contribute to the uncertainty in the model outputs. Much effort has been made to quantify such output uncertainty and attribute it to the various uncertainty sources in the modelling chain. However, the key drivers of uncertainty in flood risk estimates are still unclear because previous studies have reached conflicting conclusions.  Two things could possibly explain these ambiguous outcomes. First, these studies were implemented with different models and with different data, as well as different assumptions for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Second, the studies were conducted at catchment and/or city scale with limited variability of physical and socio-economic characteristics within a study region, but with potentially large differences across study regions. In this project, we study the question of uncertainty quantification and attribution at much larger scale, namely the heterogeneous region of the Rhine River basin. In this way, we can identify spatial patterns of dominant input uncertainties and link them to characteristics, e.g. physical, socio-economic, in the different sub-basins. To this end, we use an industry flood risk model (catastrophe model) provided by JBA Risk Management which is capable of simulating flood risk across such a large region. Our ultimate goal is to provide evidence of how the importance of uncertainties varies across places with different climatic, hydrologic and socio-economic characteristics.

How to cite: Sarailidis, G., Pianosi, F., Wagener, T., Lamb, R., Styles, K., and Hutchings, S.: Linking the relative importance of input uncertainties of a flood risk model with basin characteristics., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3122, 2022.

EGU22-4950 | Presentations | NH9.1

Investigating the effect of spatial correlation on loss estimation in catastrophe models – a case study for Italy 

Svetlana Stripajova, Erika Schiappapietra, Peter Pazak, John Douglas, and Goran Trendafiloski

Catastrophe models are very important tool to provide proper assessment and financial management of earthquake-related emergencies, which still create the largest protection gap across all other perils. Earthquake catastrophe models contain three main components: earthquake hazard, vulnerability and exposure. Simulating spatially-distributed ground-motion fields within either deterministic or probabilistic seismic hazard assessments poses a major challenge when site-related financial protection products are required. Several authors have demonstrated that the spatial correlation of earthquake ground-motion is period-, regionally- and scenario-dependent, so that the implementation of a unique correlation model may represent an oversimplification.

In this framework, we have established a joint research project between the University of Strathclyde and Impact Forecasting, Aon’s catastrophe model development centre of excellence, in order to advance the understanding of spatial correlations within the catastrophe modelling process. We developed correlation models for northern, central and southern Italian regions using both ad hoc and existing ground-motion models calibrated on different databases. Thereafter, we performed both deterministic scenario and event-based probabilistic hazard and risk assessments for Italy using the 2020 European Seismic Hazard and Risk Models. We employed the OpenQuake-engine for our calculations, which is an open-source tool suitable for accounting for the spatial correlation of earthquake ground-motion residuals. The results demonstrate the importance of considering not only the ground-motion spatial correlation, but also its associated uncertainty in risk analyses. Our findings have implications for (re)insurance companies evaluating the risk to high-value civil engineering infrastructures.

How to cite: Stripajova, S., Schiappapietra, E., Pazak, P., Douglas, J., and Trendafiloski, G.: Investigating the effect of spatial correlation on loss estimation in catastrophe models – a case study for Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4950, 2022.

EGU22-5395 | Presentations | NH9.1

UK flood risk under a changing climate 

James Savage, Ollie Wing, Niall Quinn, Jeison Sosa, Andrew Smith, and Chris Sampson

This study presents a 30 m model of UK flood hazard that considers fluvial, pluvial and coastal sources of flooding. Each of the three sources of flooding are simulated through a hydrodynamic model utilising a number of methodologies and datasets developed in this study, including a new hydrography dataset for Great Britain, a blended Digital Terrain Model (DTM) consisting of LiDAR and open source terrain datasets and a new discharge model for Great Britain. Alongside these, the study incorporates leading datasets including sub-daily river, rainfall, tidal and sea level datasets alongside national flood defence datasets. A defence detection algorithm is also applied to identify flow control structures from high resolution LiDAR terrain data. Results from the hazard model are validated against national scale flood maps at both a building and footprint scale. Future rainfall estimates are then taken from the UK Climate Projections 18 (UKCP18) to directly estimate changes in rainfall for a number of future time horizons and climate scenarios. Hydrological models are then simulated to calculate changes in river discharge which are then used to perturb boundary conditions in the hydrodynamic model. Future estimates of sea level change are used to perturb the coastal boundary conditions. Combined, these future estimates allow us to directly model changes in UK flood risk for fluvial, pluvial and coastal flooding. We use these findings to identify parts of the UK that are expected to see the greatest changes in flood risk resulting from these future projections. 

How to cite: Savage, J., Wing, O., Quinn, N., Sosa, J., Smith, A., and Sampson, C.: UK flood risk under a changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5395, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5395, 2022.

EGU22-5608 | Presentations | NH9.1

A global-scale vulnerability assessment of human displacement for floods and tropical cyclones 

Benedikt Mester, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe

Floods and tropical cyclones displaced more than 275 million people between 2008 and 2020, with the two hazards together being responsible for 86% of all displacements. It is important to understand the socio-economic drivers of displacement vulnerability to quantify future changes in risk, for instance, due to climate change, economic development, or social inequities. Here, we investigate globally and event-by-event the displacement vulnerability due to flooding and tropical cyclones (TCs), using remote sensing-derived hazard data. We create a database of displacement events associated with spatially explicit flood or TC hazard, by matching displacement data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC) spatially and temporally with satellite imagery from the recently published Global Flood Database and a collection of tropical cyclone data. The resulting hazard footprints are overlaid with gridded population data to derive the number of affected people for each event, which is compared with estimated displacement to determine the event-specific vulnerability. Between and within continental regions, displacement vulnerability varies by several orders of magnitude. We generally find a negative trend between displacement vulnerability and increasing (socio-)economic prosperity indicators, such as GDP per capita or the Human Development Index (HDI). Indicator binning reveals further insights, for instance, a higher proportion of urbanization or female population tends to indicate a lower susceptibility towards TC impacts. We analyze the uncertainty associated with different population datasets and methods to compute the number of affected people. Our analysis provides new insights into patterns and potential drivers of displacement vulnerability across space and between socio-economic groups. To our knowledge, the usage of the extensive set of observational satellite imagery is an unprecedented approach for global flood vulnerability analysis, posing remote sensing as a suitable alternative for global models for future studies. 

How to cite: Mester, B., Frieler, K., and Schewe, J.: A global-scale vulnerability assessment of human displacement for floods and tropical cyclones, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5608, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5608, 2022.

EGU22-5679 | Presentations | NH9.1

Flood damage model bias caused by aggregation 

Seth Bryant, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz

Reducing flood risk through improved disaster planning and risk management requires accurate and reliable estimates of flood damages.  Damage models commonly provide such information through calculating the impacts or costs of flooding to exposed assets, such as buildings within a community. At large scales, computational constraints or data coarseness leads to the common practice of aggregating asset data using a single statistic (e.g., the mean) prior to applying non-linear damage models. While this simplification has been shown to bias model results in other fields, like ecology, the influence of object aggregation on flood damage models has so far not been investigated. This study quantifies such errors in 12 published damage function sets and three levels of aggregation using simulated water depths. Preliminary findings show bias as high as 20% (of the damage estimate), with most damage functions having a positive bias for shallower depths (< 1 m) and a negative bias for larger depths (> 1 m). In other words, compared to an analogous model with object-specific asset data, aggregated models overestimate damages at shallow depths and underestimate damages at large depths. These findings identify a potentially significant source of error in large-scale flood damage assessments introduced, not by data quality or model transfer, but by modelling approach. With this information, risk modellers can make more informed decisions about when, where, and to what extent aggregation is appropriate. 

How to cite: Bryant, S., Kreibich, H., and Merz, B.: Flood damage model bias caused by aggregation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5679, 2022.

EGU22-7130 | Presentations | NH9.1

A global analysis of economic inequality and flood losses 

Sara Lindersson, Elena Raffetti, Luigia Brandimarte, Johanna Mård, Maria Rusca, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre

Economic inequality is today increasing in many contexts. Its consequences are multifaceted and relate to questions of justice, welfare, human well-being and health. Economic inequality also affects (directly or indirectly) society’s vulnerability to flood disasters. Research has previously shown that the ex-ante economic distribution within a country may affect the disaster outcomes. For instance, unequal societies also tend to exhibit spatial marginalization. If these marginalized areas are burdened with neglected infrastructure they also have a lower ability to divert flood water.

Our work highlights the role that economic inequality plays in explaining human flood losses, worldwide. We perform a statistical analysis using data for over a hundred countries and illustrate the importance of considering income distribution when building flood resilient societies. We also show how our results vary between different levels of economic development and discuss implications of our results on disaster research and risk reduction. 

How to cite: Lindersson, S., Raffetti, E., Brandimarte, L., Mård, J., Rusca, M., and Di Baldassarre, G.: A global analysis of economic inequality and flood losses, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7130, 2022.

EGU22-7321 | Presentations | NH9.1

The Responsibilities of and Interactions between Tsunami Early Warning and Response Agencies in New Zealand 

Carina Fearnley, Rachel Hunt, Simon Day, and Mark Maslin

This research examines the responsibilities of and the interactions between the various research institutes, national agencies, regional groups, and local councils involved in monitoring, disseminating, and responding to official tsunami warnings in New Zealand. Specifically, the underlying issues within the separated structure of tsunami early warning and response in New Zealand is examined as to whether this enhances or restricts risk assessment.

In many countries, the same agency is responsible for both monitoring tsunami hazards and issuing tsunami warnings. However, in New Zealand, this process is split. GNS Science is the research institute responsible for monitoring tsunami hazards in New Zealand, if tsunami generation is confirmed GNS Science provides risk information to the nation’s official tsunami warning agency. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) is the national agency responsible for issuing tsunami warnings in New Zealand. NEMA communicates national tsunami warnings to regional response groups as well as the public and media. The Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) Groups are then responsible for coordinating regional tsunami evacuations, with New Zealand being split into 16 regional CDEM Groups. Within these regional groups, district and city councils can also tailor the evacuation information to communities at a local level.

Online social research methods were used to explore tsunami risk assessments in New Zealand. 106 documents and archives were collected and 57 semi-structured interviews conducted with tsunami researchers, warning specialists, and emergency managers. The majority of the interviewees were from New Zealand, with some participants also being recruited from Australia, the Pacific Islands, the UK, and the USA. This allowed for national, regional, and local responses in New Zealand to be compared to those in different countries to explore how warning systems operate in practice.

Key findings indicate that New Zealand having separate monitoring and warning agencies leads to the potential for error when passing information between organisations and delays can also be caused in disseminating official warnings. The warnings are communicated on a national scale, whilst the responses carried out vary between regions, having separate warning and evacuation agencies means there is a need for consistent messages and coordinated responses. GNS Science is capable of operating 24 hours per day, whereas NEMA and the CDEM Groups do not currently have this capacity. Again, this can cause delays in issuing and responding to official warnings. Variations in funding on a regional level also effect the number of staff and amount of resources in particular CDEM Groups.

These issues are underpinned by the ways in which knowledge is exchanged within the warning system and the lack of integration between national, regional, and local agencies. Tsunami researchers and warning specialists on a national level, and emergency managers on regional and local levels, must work together to effectively disseminate and respond to official tsunami warnings. This research concludes that the separated structure of tsunami early warning and response in New Zealand involves underlying issues which must be addressed in order to improve risk assessment.

How to cite: Fearnley, C., Hunt, R., Day, S., and Maslin, M.: The Responsibilities of and Interactions between Tsunami Early Warning and Response Agencies in New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7321, 2022.

Costal reclaimed farmlands are commonly threatened by saltwater intrusion and peat-driven salinity, resulting in low and unstable agricultural productions. Climatic variables have a great effect on soil moisture and salinity influencing crop production during the various growing seasons. For this reason, monitoring soil water and salinity dynamics in the root zone during the crop growing season is fundamental to conceive mitigation strategies (e.g., precision irrigation techniques). To this end, a monitoring network was installed in an agricultural field located at the southern margin of the Venice Lagoon. Three soil-stations were placed along the main sandy paleochannel crossing the farmland southwest to northeast (stations S1, S2, and S3), while stations S4 and S5 were placed in two silty-loamy areas with high peat content. Each station was equipped with three T4e tensiometers (UMS GmbH, Munchen, Germany) at 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7 m, four Teros 12 sensors (METER Group, Inc., Pullman, WA, USA) measuring volumetric water content, temperature, and electrical conductivity (ECb) at 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7 m. In addition, a 2 m deep piezometer was installed to monitor groundwater electrical conductivity (ECw) and depth to the water table. Soil samples were collected on each monitoring location and analyzed for texture, bulk density (BD), soil organic carbon (SOC), electrical conductivity (EC 1:5), pH, and cation exchange capacity (CEC). Moreover, a weather station was installed in the experimental field to accurately monitor the local meteorological conditions during the 2019 and 2020 growing seasons. The soil monitoring dataset shows that ECb increases with depth at all locations. Moreover, rainfall events higher than 10 mm/day caused an increase in the ECb at all layers and stations. The monitoring stations inside the paleochannel showed lower ECb if compared to station S4 and S5, probably due to the highest hydraulic conductivity and, consequently, the highest leaching capacity. S5 was characterized by the highest peat content and showed the highest salinity in both soil and groundwater. In general, soil ECb and groundwater ECw showed similar behavior in 2019 and 2020, except for S4 and S5 that were saltier in 2019. These preliminary analyses demonstrated a strong influence of rainfall events on salinity behavior and highlights how climatic variables, soil heterogeneity, and saltwater intrusion at depth play an important role in the complex salinity dynamics within the root zone.

How to cite: Teatini, P., Ester, Z., and Francesco, M.: Assessing the effects of climatic variables on soil and groundwater salinity in a low-lying agricultural field near the Venice Lagoon, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7756, 2022.

EGU22-7874 | Presentations | NH9.1

Geography of World’s Water Risks 

Olli Varis, Matti Kummu, and Maija Taka

Water risks are perennially identified among the planet’s most stunning and influential factors of insecurity and underdevelopment by institutions such as the United Nations and The World Economic Forum. Scholarly water risk literature, however, suffers from many inconsistencies and the alignment of basic water risk concepts with key policy protocols such as those of the United Nations Post-2015 Agenda is not mature. Therefore, macro-level understanding of world’s water risks is subjected to inconsistencies. We analyze a set of water risks with a global-scale interest, namely the 13 water risks of the Aqueduct data product. First, their statistical structure is analyzed, grouping them into clusters. Second, a new classification of water risks is produced and used in a global mapping analysis of how the water risks manifest across the latitudes, including their relation to climatic zones, population density and socioeconomic development. This is done by adopting the Sendai framework’s hazard-exposure-vulnerability risk concept. The results reveal the importance of distinguishing clearly between water hazards and water risks and specifying (usually situation-specific) relevant components of exposure and vulnerability that link those. Aqueduct, for instance, uses the word risk in many instances that are factually hazards, and a similar unambiguity is present very widely in water literature. The most remarkable geographic pattern that we detected is the strong dependency of water hazards on latitudes; those related to variability being fiercest along the tropics, and those to infrastructure centering around the equator. Many chronic hazards are most pronounced in crowded latitudes, whereas those related to hydrological extremes have similarities with the patterns of variability related hazards. Besides detecting these global hotspots, our study underlines the importance of clarifying and systematizing the use of concepts of water risks, water scarcity, water security and others, and harmonizing their use to policy protocols such as those of the United Nations. Due to the underlying importance of water risks, their interrelations, and unveiled geographic patterns, this is essential in improving the scientific and policy-related understanding, and the consequent reduction, of the planet’s water risks.

How to cite: Varis, O., Kummu, M., and Taka, M.: Geography of World’s Water Risks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7874, 2022.

EGU22-8609 | Presentations | NH9.1

Global Open Source Tools to Support Landslide Hazard and Impact Assessments 

Dalia Kirschbaum, Thomas Stanley, Robert Emberson, Pukar Amatya, Sana Khan, and Elijah Orland

Harnessing the power of remotely sensed data for landslide hazard assessment is critical for enabling regional and global applications. Open-source tools can expand the reach and utility of these assessments to motivate new studies and support the community. This work presents a suite of open-source tools designed to characterize the potential occurrence, impacts and locations for rainfall-triggered landslides across the globe.  

The Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides a suite of capabilities that consider landslide hazard leveraging primarily satellite and model products. LHASA Version 2 uses a machine learning model to bring in dynamic variables as well as additional static variables to better represent landslide hazard globally. Global rainfall forecasts are also being incorporated to provide a 1-3 day forecast of potential landslide activity, which ultimately will provide increased awareness for large storm systems that may cause landslide impacts in already susceptible areas. Finally, a new component of the LHASA model will account for the impact of recent burned areas to indicate areas where the cascading impacts of debris flows may be present. In addition to estimates of landslide hazard, this suite of tools incorporates dynamic estimates of exposure including population, roads and infrastructure to highlight the potential impacts of rainfall-triggered landslides. The ultimate goal of LHASA Version 2.0 is to approximate the relative probabilities of landslide hazard and exposure across different space and time scales to inform hazard assessment retrospectively over the past 20 years, in near real-time, and in the future. 

A complementary component of the suite of landslide tools is an open-source algorithm to map landslide locations. We have developed a Python-based landslide mapping framework known as the Semi-Automatic Landslide Detection (SALaD) system that uses Object-based Image Analysis and machine learning. For production of event-based inventories, SALaD was modified to include a change detection module (SALaD-CD). This system can be used with both commercial high resolution optical data as well as publicly available data including Landsat and Sentinel to rapidly provide distribution of landslide locations based on limited training. Building event-based inventories is both fundamental to training the LHASA model regionally and globally as well as to support the disaster management community. In total, this suite of tools and capabilities provide a foundation to improve and support situational awareness of landslide hazards and their impacts at local to global scales and at days to decades. Information on all these capabilities is available at: https://landslides.nasa.gov 

How to cite: Kirschbaum, D., Stanley, T., Emberson, R., Amatya, P., Khan, S., and Orland, E.: Global Open Source Tools to Support Landslide Hazard and Impact Assessments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8609, 2022.

EGU22-8673 | Presentations | NH9.1

Many-hazard Risk Assessment with the CLIMADA Data API 

Zélie Stalhandske, Emanuel Schmid, Carmen B. Steinmann, Chahan Kropf, and David N. Bresch

As the climate and the risks of extreme weather to society change, access to tools for researchers and decision makers to assess the possible evolution of impacts should be facilitated. The open-source modelling platform CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation) allows to investigate the present and future statistical risk of natural hazards to human and economic systems, from the local to the global scale. One of the latest additions to the platform is an Application Programming Interface (API) providing access to exposure and hazard data to perform risk assessments on a consistent 4km grid. Hazard sets for tropical cyclones, droughts, heat-waves, wildfires, river floods, and crop-yield are, or will imminently be available at a worldwide scale on the API. In addition, region-specific hazards such as European winter storms are available. As for the exposures at risk, both population count and assets can be considered based on the data produced trough the CLIMADA LitPop module.

Owing to the availability of globally consistent hazard and exposures datasets through the CLIMADA API, it is now possible to compute and combine the impacts from several hazards. In this first study making use of the API, we calculate global probabilistic economic impacts for tropical cyclones, river floods and reduced crop yields for historical data, as well as for future time steps based on the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. From these hazard sets, we compute probabilistic annual impact sets for each hazard. In the case that impacts are provided on an event-base and not on a yearly basis, the probabilistic annual impact sets are created by randomly sampling the number of events per year following a Poisson distribution. From the impact sets per hazard, we finally quantify the total combined cost in a same year and grid cell in order to investigate temporal and spatial correlations of the different hazards.

How to cite: Stalhandske, Z., Schmid, E., Steinmann, C. B., Kropf, C., and Bresch, D. N.: Many-hazard Risk Assessment with the CLIMADA Data API, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8673, 2022.

EGU22-8854 | Presentations | NH9.1

Downscaling global wildfire model output to a relevant scale for probabilistic wildfire risk assessment of economic impacts 

Carmen B. Steinmann, Samuel Lüthi, Samuel Gübeli, Benoît P. Guillod, and David N. Bresch

Accurately estimating wildfire risk is essential for many use cases, such as prioritizing adaptation resources or offering insurance coverage for these devastating events. In collaboration with the Zurich-based InsurTech company CelsiusPro we present a globally consistent, open-source wildfire hazard, based on state-of-the-art fire models and providing high-resolution, probabilistic fire seasons suitable for risk analysis and insurance coverage pricing.

For the probabilistic part, we build upon the existing wildfire hazard model available on the open-source climate risk modelling platform CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation). This model creates stochastic wildfire events at 1 km resolution using a random walk generator that assigns a grid-point specific fire ignition and propagation probability based on Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) satellite data and physical constraints such as population density and land cover. However, this model does not account for key physical drivers, such as wind.

On the other hand, data from state-of-the-art fire models are available through the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), which coordinates the evaluation and comparison of these models. While most available models account for the complexity of fire ignition and propagation including relevant physical drivers, their resolution (ranging from 0.5° to 2.8°) is too coarse for the assessment of economic impacts as needed for insurance coverage pricing. In addition, most models are not fully probabilistic, but provide their outputs for present and future climate conditions.

In this work, we combine the annual fraction of burnt area provided as FireMIP output with CLIMADA’s stochastic model, resulting in a probabilistic, high-resolution wildfire hazard model that is based on state-of-the-art fire modelling. This allows us to compute a globally consistent economic risk of wildfires to physical assets by combining the newly developed hazard with an exposure and vulnerability.

How to cite: Steinmann, C. B., Lüthi, S., Gübeli, S., Guillod, B. P., and Bresch, D. N.: Downscaling global wildfire model output to a relevant scale for probabilistic wildfire risk assessment of economic impacts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8854, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8854, 2022.

EGU22-9310 | Presentations | NH9.1

Can hydrological models be used to characterize spatial dependency in global stochastic flood modelling? 

Gaia Olcese, Paul Bates, Jeffrey Neal, Christopher Sampson, Oliver Wing, and Niall Quinn

Flood models typically produce flood maps with constant return periods in space, without considering the spatial structure of flood events. At a large scale, this can lead to a misestimation of flood risk and losses caused by extreme events. A stochastic approach to global flood modelling allows the simulation of sets of flood events with realistic spatial structure that can overcome this problem, but until recently this has been limited by the availability of gauge data. Previous research shows that simulated discharge data from global hydrological models can be used to develop a stochastic flood model of the United States (Wing et al., 2020) and suggests that the same approach can potentially be used to build large scale stochastic flood models elsewhere but this has not so far been tested.   

This research therefore focuses on using discharge hindcasts from global hydrological models to drive stochastic flood models in different areas of the world. By comparing the outputs of these simulations to a gauge-based approach, we analyse how a model-based approach can simulate spatial dependency in large scale flood modelling outside of well-gauged territories such as the US. Based on data availability we selected different areas in Australia, Southern Africa, Southeast Asia, South America and Europe for the analysis.

The results of this research show that the performance of a model-based approach in the different continents is promising and in most areas the errors are comparable to the results obtained in the United States by Wing et al. (2020). In the United States, with this magnitude of errors, the loss distribution obtained using the model-based approach is near identical to the one produced by the gauge-based method. This suggests that this method could be used in other regions to characterize losses. Using a network of synthetic gauges with data from global hydrological models would allow the development of a stochastic flood model with detailed spatial dependency, generating realistic event sets in data-scarce regions and loss exceedance curves where exposure and vulnerability data are available.

References

Wing, O. E. J., Quinn, N., Bates, P. D., Neal, J. C., Smith, A. M., Sampson, C. C., Coxon, G., Yamazaki, D., Sutanudjaja, E. H., & Alfieri, L. (2020). Toward Global Stochastic River Flood Modeling. Water Resources Research, 56(8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020wr027692

How to cite: Olcese, G., Bates, P., Neal, J., Sampson, C., Wing, O., and Quinn, N.: Can hydrological models be used to characterize spatial dependency in global stochastic flood modelling?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9310, 2022.

EGU22-9323 | Presentations | NH9.1

MYRIAD-EU: towards Disaster Risk Management pathways in multi-risk assessment 

Philip Ward and the MYRIAD-EU team

Whilst the last decades have seen a clear shift in emphasis from managing natural hazards to managing risk, the majority of natural hazard risk research still focuses on single hazards. Internationally, there are calls for more attention for multi-hazards and multi-risks. Within the EU-funded project MYRIAD-EU, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards. In this approach, the starting point is a specific sustainability challenge, rather than an individual hazard or sector, and trade-offs and synergies are examined across sectors, regions, and hazards. We argue for in-depth case studies in which various approaches for multi-hazard and multi-risk management are co-developed and tested in practice. In this contribution, we present this project, whose goal is to enable stakeholders to develop forward-looking disaster risk management pathways that assess trade-offs and synergies of various strategies across sectors, hazards, and scales.

How to cite: Ward, P. and the MYRIAD-EU team: MYRIAD-EU: towards Disaster Risk Management pathways in multi-risk assessment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9323, 2022.

EGU22-9586 | Presentations | NH9.1

Testing global geomorphological model as site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification 

Karina Loviknes and Fabrice Cotton

Estimating site amplification of earthquake ground shaking at new sites and sites without any direct geotechnical measurements of site parameters remains a large challenge in seismic hazard assessment. Currently, the standard procedure is to use site proxies inferred from topographic slope from digital elevation models (DEMs). In this study, we test a geomorphological model for inferred regolith, soil and sediment depth by Pelletier et al. (2016). This model was originally developed as input for hydrology and ecosystem models and is based on several global values in addition to the topographic slope, including geological maps and water table data.

To test the suitability of the geomorphological model for ground-shaking prediction we derive the empirical site amplification for sites in Japan, Italy and California using different regional and global seismological datasets. We use the observed shaking amplification to test the correlation between the observed ground-shaking site amplification and the inferred site proxies and test the performance of site amplification models based on geomorphological proxies. We find that the geomorphological model works equally well or slightly better than the traditional inferred proxies. We therefore argue that this model is a promising alternative proxy that can be used for predicting site amplification on new sites and regions for which no geotechnical information exists (i.e. on a global level). This result has important implications for the development of the new generation of ground-shaking models used for shake maps and seismic hazard models.

How to cite: Loviknes, K. and Cotton, F.: Testing global geomorphological model as site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9586, 2022.

EGU22-9606 | Presentations | NH9.1

FuturePop - Global Gridded Population Projections at 90m resolution 

Laurence Hawker, Paul Bates, and Jeffrey Neal

Population projections for alternative socio-economic scenarios are crucial to understand climate change impacts. Current global gridded population projections are only available at coarse resolutions (~1km) that are inconsistent with the latest hazard models. Thus, climate change impact studies often utilise sub-optimum datasets by using coarse resolution gridded population predictions or present day population, and therefore may not adequately represent future population. To fill this gap, we use the latest datasets that align with the policy relevant Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Scenarios and CMIP6 projections to create the first gridded population at ~90m resolution globally. We call this new dataset FuturePop. Projections are made at decadal intervals and extend to 2100 for each of the 5 SSP scenarios. Our method uses country level population and % urban projections from the SSP Database, redistributing population based on delineation of rural and urban areas. We add sophistication to our method by considering associated information such as travel time, and also include predictions of urban expansion. Comparison to existing global and regional datasets show FuturePop has considerable skill in predicting plausible population changes and redistribution. Lastly, we demonstrate the importance of using FuturePop for future flood risk compared to existing gridded population projections. Hazard footprints typically have horizontal length scales of tens to thousands of meters, thus it is crucial to depict populations at these scales to accurately estimate future flood exposure.

How to cite: Hawker, L., Bates, P., and Neal, J.: FuturePop - Global Gridded Population Projections at 90m resolution, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9606, 2022.

EGU22-10178 | Presentations | NH9.1

The development of a European flood catastrophe model 

Oliver Wing, Hessel Winsemius, Remi Meynadier, Hugo Rakotoarimanga, Mark Hegnauer, Hélène Boisgontier, Anna Weisman, Andy Smith, and Chris Sampson

To understand continental scale flood risks, including spatial and temporal coherence and cascading events, is of particular importance to the insurance industry. For this industry, an “event” entails a certain regulatory duration, and encompasses the spatial scale of the portfolio of the insurer. This requires a large catalogue of statistically well-sampled, climatologically realistic possible events, much longer than any historical record can provide. We hypothesize that events that might have occurred in the recent past, but did not occur, may be generated from shorter duration historical samples, by temporal resampling, and spatial reshuffling.

In this contribution, we present a model framework – developed by a consortium of Fathom, Deltares, and AXA – that can efficiently compute very large event sets, using synthetically sampled weather (up to many thousands of years) that simulates continuous daily weather and sub-daily (for small-scale pluvial flooding) weather statistics, a gridded hydrological model forced by the synthetic weather that produces long-term hydrological statistics, and a subcatchment-scale fluvial and pluvial flood model archive, produced from large amounts of simulations with the Fathom flood model engine. The framework is setup such that components within the framework can be easily improved or replaced by new components, e.g. providing updated historical baselines for weather generation, enhanced weather generation, enhanced flood maps, or improved hydrological relationships. We present our first simulations using a k-nearest-neighbour weather resampling, using Self-Organizing-Maps, 10,000 years of simulated weather and hydrology, and sampled flood statistics. In forthcoming work, we will improve weather generation mechanism by relaxing the spatial locations of weather systems, and implement climate change.

How to cite: Wing, O., Winsemius, H., Meynadier, R., Rakotoarimanga, H., Hegnauer, M., Boisgontier, H., Weisman, A., Smith, A., and Sampson, C.: The development of a European flood catastrophe model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10178, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10178, 2022.

EGU22-11682 | Presentations | NH9.1

Evaluating the next generation of global flood models in the Central Highlands of Vietnam 

Jeffrey Neal, Laurence Hawker, James Savage, Tom Kirkpatrick, Yanos Zylberberg, and Pham Khanh Nam

Global flood models have undergone rapid development over the past decade. However, with each new generation of model it is essential to systematically evaluate simulation performance for a range of tests and against multiple sources of data. It is also important to take stock, document lessons learnt and contribute to the formation of better practice and modelling standards in the field. Here we illustrate some of the progress being made in global flood modelling by evaluating the latest 30 m resolution implementation of the LISFLOOD-FP/Fathom global flood model over the Central Highlands of Vietnam, and benchmark it against several previous incarnations of the model.

Two independent data sources are used to evaluate the model. The first of these maps recent flood extents using remotely sensed data from the Sentinal-1 missions and compares them to global flood model outputs of commensurate return periods. The second data set identifies land parcels (properties and agricultural fields) that flooded during the same events from a household survey, where uniquely all household land parcels in four villages were sampled. The independence of the date sets also allowed for cross-validation of the observations.

Substantial simulation enhancements are associated with the transition from SRTM and MERIT DEM’s at 90 m resolution to FABDEM, a version of Copernicus DEM at 30 m with forests and buildings removed. In addition to improvements derived from the DEM, more accurate river location, river width and discharge estimates combined with the inversion of river bathymetry via gradually varied rather than uniform flow theory also have an impact on performance.

How to cite: Neal, J., Hawker, L., Savage, J., Kirkpatrick, T., Zylberberg, Y., and Nam, P. K.: Evaluating the next generation of global flood models in the Central Highlands of Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11682, 2022.

EGU22-12982 | Presentations | NH9.1

Multi-hazard open access software package review with the potential for conducting sectoral risk assessments on a European or local scale 

James Daniell, Andreas Schaefer, Marleen de Ruiter, Evelyne Foerster, Philip Ward, Johannes Brand, Bijan Khazai, Trevor Girard, and Friedemann Wenzel

As part of the NARSIS (New Approach to Reactor Safety ImprovementS, www.narsis.eu) project, and the MYRIAD-EU (Multi-hazard and sYstemic framework for enhancing Risk-Informed mAnagement and Decision-making in the EU, www.myriadproject.eu) project, a compendium of existing open access software packages for risk modelling of natural hazards, as well as a review of multi-hazard projects has been undertaken with a clear focus on assessments in Europe.

There have been over 200 open access software packages produced for the evaluation of singular natural hazards, combinations of natural hazards and multi-hazard identified either propagating through to risk, or calculating extensive hazard metrics. By far, the most have been built for floods, and earthquakes, however a number have been designed for multi-hazard (RiskSCAPE, HAZUS and variants, CLIMADA, NARSIS-MHE, InaSAFE to name a few).

In around 120 of them, they have moved through to risk assessment, with the calculation of risk metrics. Many of these have been designed for scenario analysis, but there are also many which employ probabilistic methods or stochastic models to evaluate risk. In this work, the classification of the open access software packages follows that of previous studies (Daniell et al., 2014), but with a focus on the use for multi-hazard assessment rather than singular hazards.

Moving through to multi-risk, a number include different interconnected systems for assets (OOFIMS for instance from the EU SYNER-G project). Although there are very few that deal with consecutive or coinciding hazards, a number can be adapted to do this, and some even have the ability to be used for cascading hazard analysis.

By understanding the state-of-the-art in existing software packages as of 2022, a multi-hazard framework can be produced for various economic sectors such as ecosystems and forestry, energy, finance, food and agriculture, infrastructure and transport, as well as tourism, to solve some of the missing links when looking at the impacts of consecutive, coinciding or cascading hazards. In addition, relevant software packages have been found to conduct assessments on the European scale, but also on the local scale for more detailed analyses.

How to cite: Daniell, J., Schaefer, A., de Ruiter, M., Foerster, E., Ward, P., Brand, J., Khazai, B., Girard, T., and Wenzel, F.: Multi-hazard open access software package review with the potential for conducting sectoral risk assessments on a European or local scale, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12982, 2022.

EGU22-114 | Presentations | NH4.2

Seismic intensity outside the earthquake focal zone 

Anastasia Nekrasova and Vladimir Kossobokov

We present an original method for determining the seismic impact outside the elliptical focal zone of an earthquake. The technique is based on the research of N.V. Shebalin (1927-1996) and generalizes the work of Russian and foreign seismologists, taking into account anisotropic concentration of seismic impact observed in nature in the direction of the source stretch. The macroseismic intensity is approximated by the function of magnitude, hypocentral distance and direction of the main axis of the focal zone taking into account the existing regional characteristics including information on active faults and earthquake focal mechanisms in the study area. The methodology can be used both in the operational assessment of damage from an earthquake immediately after its occurrence, and for the purposes of long-term general seismic zoning. The study was carried out as part of the Russian Federation State task of Scientific Research Works on "Seismic hazard assessment, development and testing of earthquake prediction methods" (No. 0143-2019-0006).

How to cite: Nekrasova, A. and Kossobokov, V.: Seismic intensity outside the earthquake focal zone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-114, 2022.

EGU22-604 | Presentations | NH4.2

Deterministic scenarios for seismic hazard assessment in the metropolitan area of San Jose, Costa Rica. First results of the Kuk-Ahpan Project. 

Adriana Fatima Ornelas Agrela, Belen Benito Oterino, Rebeca Franco Blanco, Carlos García Lanchares, Miguel Marchamalo Sacristan, Guillermo Alvarado, Alvaro Climent, Walter Montero, and Victor Schmidt

We present here the first results of the KUK-AHPAN Project: INTEGRATED REGIONAL STUDY OF STRUCTURE AND EVOLUTION 4D OF CENTRAL AMERICAN LITHOSPHERE. IMPLICATIONS IN SEISMIC HAZARD AND RISK CALCULATION). One of the main purposes of this project is to improve the knowledge of the seismic hazard in Central American countries, as well as the seismic risk in populations of the region.

An initial phase is addressed to define deterministic scenarios in the capital cities, giving the expected strong motion due to possible ruptures in local faults which may be critical for the risk of the population.

Preliminary results have already been found in the metropolitan area of San Jose (Costa Rica), affected by moderate-high seismicity due to a complex system of faults in the Valle Central in a local frame. In a regional context, the seismicity of the country is explained by the tectonic interaction between the Cocos and Caribbean plates.

We have identified three critical scenarios corresponding to events located in the Belo Horizonte, Rio Azul, and Cipreses faults. The strong motion for these scenarios has been estimated firstly in rock conditions, by application of different Ground Motion Prediction Equations. (GMPEs). In the second place, a microzonation map for San Jose is proposed, derived from data of isoperiods, lithology and other geotechnical information.  The amplification factor for the different soils has been extracted from NEHRP. Finally, we estimated the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and other spectral accelerations SA(T) including the local effects for each rupture scenario defined.

These deterministic scenarios will be compared with other results obtained with probabilistic approaches including modelization of faults in the definition of source models. A final goal is to improve the knowledge of the influence of the source models based on faults, not only in zones, in the hazard estimates.

How to cite: Ornelas Agrela, A. F., Benito Oterino, B., Franco Blanco, R., García Lanchares, C., Marchamalo Sacristan, M., Alvarado, G., Climent, A., Montero, W., and Schmidt, V.: Deterministic scenarios for seismic hazard assessment in the metropolitan area of San Jose, Costa Rica. First results of the Kuk-Ahpan Project., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-604, 2022.

To confirm the probabilistic hazard assessment proposed by the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM), we compared it with the strong ground motion observations. We accessed the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) database and reported the maximum ground shaking of each strong-motion station. Comparing the TSMIP observations and the TEM hazard model reveals similar spatial patterns. However, some records indicate significantly higher shaking levels than the model does due to the occurrence of some large events, for example, the 1999 Mw7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake. Such discrepancies cannot be explained by model parameter uncertainties but by unexpected events in the given short observation period. We have confirmed that although each seismogenic structure in Taiwan is unlikely to rupture within a short period, the summarized earthquake potentials from all the structures are significant. Additionally, we discuss the impacts of some model parameters, including epistemic uncertainties of source parameters, truncation of standard deviation for ground motion prediction equations, the Gutenberg-Richter law for area source, and the time-dependent seismicity rate model. The outcomes of this study provide not only crucial information for urban planning on a city scale and building code legislation on a national scale, but also suggestions for the next generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Taiwan as well as other regions.

How to cite: Chan, C.-H., Gao, J.-C., and Tseng, Y.-H.: Confirmation of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment by the Taiwan Earthquake Model through comparison with strong ground motion observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1472, 2022.

EGU22-2303 | Presentations | NH4.2

Time-dependent earthquake and tsunami hazard scenarios for the Adriatic region 

Antonella Peresan and Hany M. Hassan

During the last two decades, an operational procedure for time-dependent seismic hazard scenarios has been developed, which integrates fully formalized and validated earthquake forecasting information from pattern recognition analysis (e.g. by CN algorithm), with the realistic modelling of earthquake ground motion by the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA). The proposed methodology permits to define, both at regional and local scale, a set of scenarios of ground motion for the time interval for the time interval in which a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted areas. When dealing with offshore large earthquakes occurrence, this integrated approach can be naturally extended to the definition of time-dependent tsunami scenarios, based on physical scenario models of tsunami waves.

CN forecasts for the Italian territory and its surroundings, as well as the corresponding time-dependent ground motion scenarios associated with the alarmed areas, are regularly updated since about two decades (Peresan, 2018, Geophysical Monograph Series, 234, pp. 149–172 and references therein). We review the results obtained so far by rigorous prospective testing of the developed procedure, including analysis of the statistical significance of issued forecasts. Special emphasis is placed on the recent earthquakes that occurred in the Adriatic region, which support validation of the applied methodologies, and evidence the opportunity of developing time-dependent tsunamis scenarios, by integrating forecast information with the modelling of tsunami waves propagation.

In this study, tsunami modelling is performed by the NAMI DANCE software (Yalciner et al., 2006, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey), which allows us accounting for seismic source properties, variable bathymetry, and non-linear effects in waves propagation. Urban scale hazard scenarios for selected coastal sites are developed considering different potential tsunamigenic sources of tectonic origin, located in the Central and Southern Adriatic Sea. The results from parametric studies accounting for possible sources related to historical events, as well as for yet unobserved extreme events, are considered for this purpose. Their verification against recent earthquakes, allows us assessing the relevance of space-time information and uncertainties on source parameters, and their possible operational contribution towards effective tsunami warning system for the Adriatic Sea and in the whole Mediterranean area. 

How to cite: Peresan, A. and Hassan, H. M.: Time-dependent earthquake and tsunami hazard scenarios for the Adriatic region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2303, 2022.

EGU22-2378 | Presentations | NH4.2

Anatomy of seismicity clustering from parametric space-time analysis 

Giuliana Rossi, Gianni Bressan, Antonella Peresan, and Carla Barnaba

A multi-parametric approach, based on five different parameters quantifying seismicity, is proposed for investigating the space-time evolution of earthquakes occurrence in areas characterized by complex tectonics, namely by the interference of differently oriented faults and by the heterogeneous mechanical strength of the rocks. Specifically, the variations of entropy, the b-value from the Gutenberg-Richter law, the changes in fractal dimension, and the Nearest Neighbour distance (η) are used for assessing changes in the temporal patterns of seismicity. In parallel, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in 4D (space and time) is used to define the hypocentres distribution geometry and the propagation directions.

In particular, we applied the methods mentioned above in a multi-parametric study of the seismicity space-time evolution from 2015 to the beginning of 2020 in a well-focused area. The study area, centred on the town of Tolmezzo, in Northeastern Italy, between the Alps and the Prealps, is characterized by a complex tectonic pattern resulting from the interference of differently oriented fault systems and involving mechanically heterogeneous rocks. After a long period of low seismic activity, lasting about 15 years, in 2018–2019, the area experienced a significant increase of radiated seismic energy, spatially clustered, with four sequences induced by earthquakes with MD (coda-duration magnitude) from 3.7 to 4.0 (http://www.crs.inogs.it/bollettino/RSFVG). Notably, the most energetic events are located in correspondence with the sharp transitions from zones of low damage to zones of intermediate damage. Two distinct periods of the seismic activity are identified, as revealed by the b-value and the fractal dimension, which show relevant fluctuations since the beginning of 2017. The temporal variation of the b-value can be related to crustal stress changes in the medium, which is characterized by different mechanical properties. The fractal dimension time evolution indicates a prevailing clustering of the earthquakes with a tendency to propagate linearly. The temporal variations of the Shannon entropy and η quantify the evolving organization and correlation of seismicity within an area; hence, they reflect a process of damage evolution in heterogeneous rocks that changes with time due to continuous strain energy redistribution. According to this view, the Shannon entropy and η can be considered parameters related to each other that reflect the memory of past deformations. The recovery of Shannon entropy and η to values preceding the crisis of 2018–2019 suggests that the system has reached a temporary new equilibrium.

The solutions provided by the PCA analysis along a cross-section close to Tolmezzo confirm such observations. They reveal mostly vertical and sub-vertical planes changing orientation along the cross-section considered. The fracture propagates within the fracturing plane in the southernmost and northernmost parts of the cross-section. In contrast, the results suggest the activation of parallel planes in the central part of the section, closer to Tolmezzo. The orientation of the planes inferred from PCA analysis agrees with secondary NNE-SSW and E-W trends present in the region considered. 

How to cite: Rossi, G., Bressan, G., Peresan, A., and Barnaba, C.: Anatomy of seismicity clustering from parametric space-time analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2378, 2022.

EGU22-2526 | Presentations | NH4.2 | Highlight

Building typologies for Norway: a case study for Oslo using machine learning 

Federica Ghione, Steffen Mæland, Abdelghani Meslem, and Volker Oye

To evaluate potential human and economic losses in a seismic risk assessment, it is important to define an exposure model by defining building materials and characteristics. The common approach to develop an exposure model is to have a first overview of the area with Google Earth and to perform extensive fieldwork in representative areas of the city. This procedure is time and cost consuming, and it is also subject to personal interpretation. To mitigate these costs, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) is used to automatically identify the different building typologies in the city of Oslo, Norway, based on facade images taken from in-situ fieldwork and Google Street View.

The present article attempts to categorize Oslo’s building stock in five main building typologies: timber (T), unreinforced masonry (MUR), reinforced concrete (CR), composite (steel reinforced concrete) (SRC) and steel (S). This method shows good results for timber buildings with 91% accuracy score, but only 41% for steel reinforced concrete buildings. These variations can be explained by differences in the number of labelled images for each typology, comprising the training data, and differences in complexity between typologies.

This work is the first tentative to identify Norwegian building typologies: based on experts judgement, the five types observed in Oslo can be applicable at national level. In addition, this study shows that CNNs can significantly contribute in terms of developing a cost-effective exposure model.

How to cite: Ghione, F., Mæland, S., Meslem, A., and Oye, V.: Building typologies for Norway: a case study for Oslo using machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2526, 2022.

EGU22-2700 | Presentations | NH4.2

Investigating earthquake clusters complexity in Central Italy by network theory tools 

Elisa Varini and Antonella Peresan

Complex network theory has been recently applied to get new insights and a different perspective in the study of earthquake patterns. Several studies (see for instance Daskalaki et al., J Seismol, 2016; Telesca, Phys. Chem. Earth, 2015; Varini et al., J Geophys Res, 2020; Ebrahimi et al., Chaos Solitons Fractals, 2021, and references therein) were based on the preliminary mapping of the time series of earthquakes into networks, by applying visibility graph method or other clustering algorithms. In a second step, the topological properties of the obtained networks were analyze by exploiting tools of complex network theory with the aim of discovering possible precursory signatures of strong earthquakes or other features relevant to hazard assessment.

In this study we investigated the earthquake clusters extracted by two data-driven declustering algorithms: the nearest-neighbor, which classifies the earthquakes on the basis of a nearest-neighbor distance between events in the space-time-energy domain (Zaliapin and Ben-Zion, J Geophys Res, 2013), and the stochastic declustering, which is based on the space-time ETAS point process model (Zhuang et al., J Geophys Res, 2004). Case studies from selected sequences, occurred in Central Italy from 1985 to 2021, are examined in some detail.

The earthquake clusters extracted by the two declustering algorithms are compared by different tools, so as to assess the similarities and differences in their classification and characterization (Varini et al., J Geophys Res, 2020). The connections between events forming a cluster, as defined by the considered declustering method, allow us representing its hierarchical structure by means of a tree graph. The topological structure of the clusters is then investigated by means of centrality measures in the frame of Network analysis.

How to cite: Varini, E. and Peresan, A.: Investigating earthquake clusters complexity in Central Italy by network theory tools, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2700, 2022.

EGU22-3695 | Presentations | NH4.2

Seismic Intensity Estimation using Machine Learning for on-site Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) 

Sungmyung Bae, Yonggyu Choi, Youngseok Song, Joongmoo Byun, and Soon Jee Seol

Earthquake Early Warning System (EEW) is a technology that calculates earthquake parameter using P-wave that arrives earlier and warns the expected damage area before the arrival of destructive S wave. Therefore, many countries are operating EEW to mitigate damage from earthquake shaking. Especially an on-site EEW is drawn attention as it can reduce blind zones due to using only a single or minimum station. In the on-site EEW, it is important to quickly predict the seismic intensity, which indicates the degree of ground damage, response of structures and ground shaking felt by people at a given location, rather than information on the magnitude or distance of the earthquake.

In this study, we suggest a machine learning (ML) model that can directly estimate the seismic intensity scale from initial P-waveforms of three-component acceleration data measured at a single station. We used 1D-Convolutional Neural Networks (1D-CNN), which have been shown good performance in signal processing of speech and medical data which are similar to earthquake signals. K-Net and KiK-net datasets, recorded at stations in Japan, were used for training the ML model. Since the amount of data is enough and all of data are labeled with Japan Meteorological Agency Seismic Intensity Scale (IJMA), the datasets were used as training data in this study. The developed model produced fast and accurate results using only the three-component acceleration field data at a single station.

In order to test applicability of the trained model to the new dataset acquired from other regions, the trained model was applied to the STEAD data which were recorded at stations distributed globally. When the trained model was applied to STEAD data directly, the prediction results were worse than those of K-Net and KiK-net data. The reason is that the characteristics of the ground and waveforms are different depending on the region. Therefore, to solve this problem, transfer learning was applied, and only the parameters of a fully connected layer of pretrained ML model were fine-tuned using small number of both labeled target dataset and training dataset used for pretraining. Moreover, by considering the imbalance problem of the training data for transfer learning, it was able to obtain better prediction results. Ultimately, this study shows the pretrained model with a specific region dataset can provide reasonable prediction of seismic intensity to new dataset acquired from other regions using transfer learning.

How to cite: Bae, S., Choi, Y., Song, Y., Byun, J., and Seol, S. J.: Seismic Intensity Estimation using Machine Learning for on-site Earthquake Early Warning (EEW), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3695, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3695, 2022.

EGU22-4035 | Presentations | NH4.2

Using Negative Binomial Hidden Markov models to extrapolate past states of seismicity into the future 

Katerina Orfanogiannaki and Dimitris Karlis

Over the years numerous attempts have been made to obtain the distribution of earthquake numbers. The most popular distribution that has been widely used to describe earthquake numbers is the Poisson distribution due to its simplicity and relative ease of application. Another distribution that has been used to approximate the earthquake number distribution is the Negative Binomial. However, for small-time intervals, both the Poisson and Negative binomial distributions fail to fit observed earthquake frequencies. We propose an extension of mixture models that is Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) with Poisson and Negative Binomial state-specific probability distributions and thus derive Poisson (P-HMMs) and Negative Binomial Hidden Markov Models (NB-HMMs), respectively. We use the parametrization of the Negative Binomial distribution in which the probability density function is expressed in terms of the mean and the shape parameter. In this parametrization, a variance is a quadratic form of the mean and the Negative Binomial distribution tends to the Poisson distribution when the shape parameter tends to infinity. Three-time units have been selected to count the number of earthquakes, namely 1-day, 5-day, and 10-days counting intervals resulting in daily, 5-day, and 10-day time series.

The region of Killini, Western Greece has been selected to apply the proposed methodology. All earthquakes with Local Magnitude ML 3:2 have been selected in the time interval from 1990 to 2007, inclusive. This time interval is divided into two sub-intervals that correspond to the learning and the testing periods. In the learning period from 1990 to 2004, inclusive the parameters of the models are estimated while in the testing period from 2005 to 2007, inclusive the ability of the models is tested to extrapolate past states of seismicity into the future. We applied both models with a different number of states to the daily, 5-day and 10-day time series of earthquakes that occurred in the Killini region during the learning period. Based on the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for all three counting intervals the NB-HMMs model with three components was selected. The best-fitting model was used to estimate through simulations the number of earthquakes expected to occur in the study area during 1-day, 5-day, and 10-day intervals for the testing period. From the results obtained it appears that regardless of the selected time unit the models are able to capture the future variations
of seismic activity.

How to cite: Orfanogiannaki, K. and Karlis, D.: Using Negative Binomial Hidden Markov models to extrapolate past states of seismicity into the future, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4035, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4035, 2022.

EGU22-4093 | Presentations | NH4.2

Testing the applicability of GMPEs for the Hainaut region (Belgium) using macroseismic intensity data 

Kris Vanneste and Thierry Camelbeeck

In the area around Belgium, the Hainaut region is one of the most seismically active zones, behind the Roer Valley Graben (where seismicity is linked to known active faults) and the Eastern Ardennes (where the largest historical earthquake in NW Europe occurred). As a result, this comparatively small area stands out on most seismic hazard maps made during the past two decades. However, seismicity only started at the end of the 19th century and seems to decline gradually since the late 20th century. Historical earthquakes are not known in this area. This evolution is very similar to the history of coal mining in the area, which started in the 19th century, culminated in the 20th century and ceased in 1984, suggesting that the Hainaut seismicity may be induced. This seismicity is characterized by low to moderate magnitudes, up to MW= 4.1, but due to their shallow focal depth (< 6 km), many earthquakes caused damage with corresponding maximum intensities up to VII on the EMS-98 scale, as indicated by a recent compilation of all available macroseismic intensity data (Camelbeeck et al., 2021). This reassessment also showed that intensities in this region attenuate much faster with distance than in other parts of Belgium. This highlights the importance of selecting appropriate ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for seismic hazard assessment (SHA), which is the main objective of this study.

The past two decades, several metrics have been proposed to evaluate the goodness of fit between a GMPE and observed ground motion, such as the LH and LLH measures (Scherbaum et al., 2004; 2009) and Euclidean-based Distance Ranking (Kale & Akkar, 2013). Using macroseismic data to rank GMPEs requires an additional conversion of predicted ground motions to intensities using a ground-motion-to-intensity conversion equation (GMICE). Normalized residuals between observed and predicted intensities are then computed using the combined uncertainty of GMPE and GMICE (Villani et al., 2019). We evaluated different GMICEs and selected the relation by Atkinson & Kaka (2007) because it includes magnitude- and distance-dependent terms that result in better consistency between PGA and PGV than with the other relations. We made a selection of 20 recent GMPEs for the analysis, including newer versions of GMPEs used earlier in Belgium, GMPEs applied in recent SHAs in France, Germany and the UK, as well as two GMPEs developed specifically for induced earthquakes. Our preliminary results indicate that the latter GMPEs, in addition to the NGA-East GMPE by Atkinson & Boore (2006), show the best agreement with the data, although it should be noted that none of the tested GMPEs provides a really good match and none of the ranking methods considers the trend of residuals with distance. We also find that the scores based on PGV are significantly better than those based on PGA. The ranking results will be used to guide our selection of GMPEs for the new seismic hazard map of Belgium.

How to cite: Vanneste, K. and Camelbeeck, T.: Testing the applicability of GMPEs for the Hainaut region (Belgium) using macroseismic intensity data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4093, 2022.

EGU22-4746 | Presentations | NH4.2

Real-time global shear-traction model verification using atmospheric effects of radon activity 

Sergey Pulinets, Blaž Vičič, Pavel Budnikov, Jure Žalohar, Matic Potočnik, Marco Komac, and Matej Dolenec

Over the last 30 years, the Cosserat continuum has gained an importance in the description of physical properties of tectonic faulting. Using the sine-Gordon equation we show that kink and antikink solitary wave solutions can be used to describe propagation of the couple-stresses through the faulted medium of the Earth’s crust. Recently it was established that the shear-traction exerted on the tectonic faults by the couple-stresses correlates with radon degassing. Degassing is estimated through atmospheric effects due to air ionization expressed in the form of the atmospheric chemical potential (ACP), thus providing a direct and measurable proof for the existence propagating couple-stresses in the Earth’s crust. The positive and negative correlation corresponds to different faulting mechanism and thickness of the Earth’s crust. Positive correlation is observed in the regions characterized by thin crust, as well as in the normal and strike-slip faulting regimes. The negative correlation is observed in the regions characterized by thick crust as well as in the reverse faulting regimes, and along very long transform faults. Using together the shear-traction modeling and ACP measurements, we can identify critical zones prone to the earthquake triggering and calculate the time-dependent probability for the future earthquakes.

How to cite: Pulinets, S., Vičič, B., Budnikov, P., Žalohar, J., Potočnik, M., Komac, M., and Dolenec, M.: Real-time global shear-traction model verification using atmospheric effects of radon activity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4746, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4746, 2022.

EGU22-5838 | Presentations | NH4.2

A New Seismic Source Zone Model for Lesser Antilles Seismic Hazard Assessment 

Oceane Foix, Stephane Mazzotti, and Herve Jomard

Seismic hazard levels used as reference for the French Lesser Antilles are derived from probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies performed in 2002. However, our scientific knowledge has greatly increased over the past 20 years in this area. As part of a project linking the French Ministry of Ecological Transition and Solidarity, and the Seismicity Transverse Action of RéSiF (French seismological and geodetic network), we are developing a new seismotectonic model of the Lesser Antilles Subduction Zone (LASZ). The LASZ results from the subduction of the North and South American plates beneath the Caribbean plate since the Eocene. The boundary extends along 850 km in an ENE-WSW convergence direction at 18-20 mm/yr. Significant N-S variations in tectonic, seismic and volcanic activities raise questions on the undergoing geodynamic processes. Fractures and ridges entering into the subduction deform the trench, adding seismotectonic complexities. Several controversial hypothesis remain, such as the origins of the 1839 (Mw 7.5-8) and 1843 (Mw 8-8.5) earthquakes and the long term interseismic coupling, which is currently interpreted as being low. New seismic imageries and more complete seismic catalogs help to better constrain the slab and Moho shapes, as well as the hydrological behavior of the plate interface. In this study, we propose a compilation of existing data and hypothesis, completed by an analysis of focal mechanisms rupture types averaged on grid and strain tensor derived from GPS. For the first time, we add a particular attention in the role and influence of the mantle wedge seismicity, observed in only few subduction zones.

How to cite: Foix, O., Mazzotti, S., and Jomard, H.: A New Seismic Source Zone Model for Lesser Antilles Seismic Hazard Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5838, 2022.

EGU22-9029 | Presentations | NH4.2

Physics Based Seismicity Rate Computation For Northeast Himalaya, India 

Auchitya Kumar Pandey, Prasanta Chingtham, and Paresh Nath Singha Roy

The computation of probable occurrence of future large earthquakes is the prime objective of the present study in the Northeast Himalaya India. For this purpose, the physics based rate-and-state friction law is adopted for forecasting the seismicity rate changes for MW ≥ 5.0 during the period 2016-2020. The coulomb stress changes (ΔCFF) is consider as a principle component which associated with the earthquake ruptured from the receiver’s fault. The reason behind considering the coulomb stress changes lies on the fact that the seismicity rate increases where the stress increase and decrease where the stress decreases. Here, it has been observed that high ΔCFF values are found widespread along the Main Central Thrust. Moreover, highest b-value is found to be in and around the Sikkim Himalaya. However, the highest background seismicity rate is also obtained in the vicinity of Sikkim and Bhutan with values ranging from 0 to 3.6. Finally, we have considered the consecutive fault parameter (Aσ = 0.05 MPa) for computing the forecast model with variable ΔCFF and heterogeneous b-value. The different value of the constitutive parameter (Aσ = 0.01, 0.02, 0.09, and 0.30 MPa) is adopted to understand the contribution of this parameter in a sudden change of seismicity rate due to stress perturbations. Also, various friction coefficient values (μ' = 0.2, 0.5, 0.6 and 0.8) are considered to find out the variation of seismicity rate changes. Then, CSEP model have been explored to check the consistency between the observed earthquakes and forecasted seismicity rates. The result from the CSEP model approves that the observed earthquakes matches well with the forecasted seismicity rates, thereby showing the consistency and efficiency of our forecast model.

How to cite: Pandey, A. K., Chingtham, P., and Roy, P. N. S.: Physics Based Seismicity Rate Computation For Northeast Himalaya, India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9029, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9029, 2022.

EGU22-9041 | Presentations | NH4.2

Earthquake forecasting model in Albania 

Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma

Abstract
We proposed an earthquake forecasting model for Albania, one of the most seismic
regions in Europe, to give an overview of seismic activity by implementing area
source and smoothing approaches. The earthquake catalogue was firstly declustered
to evaluate the completeness time window and magnitude of completeness for shallow
events. Considering catalogue completeness, the events with M≥4.0 during the period
of time 1960 – 2006 were implemented for forecasting seismicity in 20 area sources
covering the region of study and each grid cell with a size of 0.2 x 0.2 degrees. Our
results from both models show a high seismic rate along the western coastline and
south part of the study area, consistent with previous studies and currently active
regions. To further evaluate the seismicity results from the models, we introduced a
Molchan diagram to investigate the correlation between a model and observations of
earthquake events. The catalogue from 1960 to 2006 is regarded as the “learning
period” for model construction, and the catalogue data covering the period of time
2018-2020 is the “testing period” for comparing and validating the results. The
Molchan diagram suggests that both models are significantly better than random
distributed, confirming their forecasting abilities. Our results could provide crucial
information for subsequent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment.


Keywords: area sources, declustering, earthquake catalogue, Molchan diagram,
probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, smoothing model,.

How to cite: Xhafaj, E., Chan, C.-H., and Ma, K.-F.: Earthquake forecasting model in Albania, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9041, 2022.

EGU22-9327 | Presentations | NH4.2

Seismic potential of the northern Chile region of the Nazca subduction zone 

Sylvain Michel, Romain Jolivet, Chris Rollins, and Jorge Jara

The northern Chile region of the Nazca subduction zone has hosted a Mw 8.5-9.0 earthquake in 1977 which induced a tsunami. The different magnitude estimates of this event are based on the evaluation of seismic intensities, tide gauge information and/or on the event’s inferred length, however, its actual along-strike extent is still under discussion. Based on geodetic data, former studies have also suggested this region awaits a Mw 8.6-8.8. In our study, we propose to revisit the evaluation of the seismic potential of the region, accounting for the fault’s moment deficit rate, earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution and earthquake physics. To do so, we combine an improved probabilistic estimate of moment deficit rate with results from dynamic models of the earthquake cycle, taking into account the influence of a potential barrier which could control the extent and therefore the magnitude of large events.

How to cite: Michel, S., Jolivet, R., Rollins, C., and Jara, J.: Seismic potential of the northern Chile region of the Nazca subduction zone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9327, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9327, 2022.

EGU22-10280 | Presentations | NH4.2

Assessment of the macroseismic/strong-ground motion distribution of the 2021 Crete (Arkalochori) earthquake sequence using a finite fault stochastic simulation approach 

Michail Ravnalis, Charalampos Kkallas, Constantinos Papazachos, and Christos Papaioannou

At 27/09/2021, 06:17 (UTC) a strong ground motion with moment magnitude M6.0 occurred on the island of Crete, approximately 25km SE of the city of Heraklion, near Arkalochori. The highest macroseismic intensity value was observed in the area of the central part of the peripheral unit of Heraklion (i.e., in the area of the Municipality of Minoa Pediada) and had a value of IMM = VII. The earthquake was also felt in the islands of the southern and eastern Aegean up to areas of Attica. We collected macroseismic data from EMSC considering a significant number of macroseismic testimonies and available strong motion information. The main goal was to perform a combined interpretation between observed and synthetic macroseismic data. In order to predict the expected ground motion measurements, for example peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), as a function of distance and magnitude we used the stochastic simulation approach. These simulations are performed with the EXSIM code (Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005), as described by Boore (2009) taking into account finite-fault effects in ground-motion modeling. Good knowledge of the detailed rupture process is essential for realistic simulations of strong ground motion. Earthquake relocations for this aftershock sequence suffer from poor knowledge of the local velocity structure, especially for the shallow part of the crust. This was an important factor in the case of this earthquake, as the permanent network is rather sparse in this area. We employed a Monte Carlo parametric search of the velocity model space, realized through an adapted neighborhood algorithm, as included in the Geopsy software, together with a conventional location code. In this approach, the regional 1D velocity model, together with appropriate station corrections, is simultaneously estimated (non-linear optimization) with the relocation of the complete seismic sequence. Finally, a good agreement of the spatial distribution of the initial and modeled simulated macroseismic intensities is observed, showing that can reliably reconstruct the main features of the damage distribution approach for this earthquake.

 

How to cite: Ravnalis, M., Kkallas, C., Papazachos, C., and Papaioannou, C.: Assessment of the macroseismic/strong-ground motion distribution of the 2021 Crete (Arkalochori) earthquake sequence using a finite fault stochastic simulation approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10280, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10280, 2022.

EGU22-11648 | Presentations | NH4.2 | Highlight

Seismic Vulnerability of a Slender Intact Stalagmite standing in a Karstic Cave 

Katalin Gribovszki, Piotr A. Bońkowski, Marcin A. Jaworski, and Zbigniew Zembaty

Recently, it has been argued that natural, intact stalagmites in caves give important constraints on seismic hazard since they have survived all earthquakes over their (rather long) life span. For this reason, applying detailed modelling methodologies to study the seismic motion of speleothems has special significance. Here we present a stalagmite-based study from the Little Carpathians of Slovakia, Plavecka priepast cave.

The seismic response of stalagmite is computed using a robust, a fully three-dimensional, Finite Element Method model calibrated from free vibration records by Hilbert-Huang modal extraction. It is demonstrated that the stalagmite vibrations consist of pairs of closely coupled flexural natural modes with a negligible role of vertical excitations.

An underground record of a moderate earthquake was applied to excite low intensity seismic vibrations. Particular attention was paid to observing the role of the vertical component of seismic ground motion. It is concluded that the failure mode of the stalagmite is driven by flexural vibrations. The safety margins of this stalagmite were assessed by analysing the tensile stress map from the seismic response computations. The location of the breaking point of the stalagmite is a result of a balance between the overturning bending moment and variations of horizontal cross-sections with height. The ultimate peak velocity of excitations equalling 3.2 mm/s is estimated.

The used input data and the animations are available on these web pages:

https://z.zembaty.po.opole.pl/SupplementaryStalagmite3Dview.html

https://z.zembaty.po.opole.pl/SupplementaryStalagmite.html

How to cite: Gribovszki, K., Bońkowski, P. A., Jaworski, M. A., and Zembaty, Z.: Seismic Vulnerability of a Slender Intact Stalagmite standing in a Karstic Cave, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11648, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11648, 2022.

EGU22-12835 | Presentations | NH4.2

The effects of large-scale geological characteristics on the average spatial pattern of earthquake-induced ground motions 

Karim Tarbali, John McCloskey, Himanshu Agrawal, and Carmine Galasso

This paper investigates the predominant effects of sub-surface geological characteristics on the earthquake-induced ground-motion properties relevant to the design of infrastructure systems in urban environments. By considering ensembles of different earthquake scenarios and conducting numerical simulations to generate surface ground motion realizations, the contributing factors of earthquake source and earth properties in shaping the spatial pattern of ground motion amplitudes are scrutinized. Physics-based ground-motion simulations are conducted for 28 earthquake scenarios with moment magnitudes of 5.0 and 6.0 triggered with different azimuthal and geometrical properties. The earth wave-propagation properties are defined by considering data and empirical relationships that represent a typical geological setting with depth crustal rock and soft sedimentary basin (including a river channel). The spatial pattern of ground motion intensity measures (defined as the geometrical mean of the two horizontal pseudo-spectral accelerations) is used to show the average spatial pattern of ground motion severity. The results demonstrate that, even though the spatial ground motion patterns for a specific scenario earthquake depend on both the sub-surface geology and the source properties, the sub-surface geological characteristics impose a deterministic impact on the average spatial pattern of ground motions regardless of the earthquake location, azimuthal and geometrical properties. This clearly indicates that the regional seismic hazard assessments should allocate further resources for determining the sub-surface earth properties as they can disproportionally alter urban designs in contrast to the conventional concern on determining the location of probable future earthquakes and their small-scale characteristics.

How to cite: Tarbali, K., McCloskey, J., Agrawal, H., and Galasso, C.: The effects of large-scale geological characteristics on the average spatial pattern of earthquake-induced ground motions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12835, 2022.

EGU22-13334 | Presentations | NH4.2 | Highlight

Scenario-based Earthquake Early Warning empowered by NDSHA 

Yan Zhang, Zhongliang Wu, Fabio Romanelli, Franco Vaccari, Changsheng Jiang, Shanghua Gao, Jiawei Li, Vladimir G. Kossobokov, and Giuliano F. Panza

For the concept of next-generation Early Earthquake Warning (EEW), the core idea is to combine EEW with seismic hazard assessment. In other words, to perform rapidly the computation of seismic hazard after the occurrence of an earthquake is detected and then to issue accurate warning, including lead time and potential seismic hazard level, to different end-users, e.g., railway system, working nuclear power plants and precision surgery in progress. We propose a scenario-based EEW by using the physics- and scenario-based hazard assessment, well known as Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA). NDSHA can reliably compute the physically possible maximum ground motion response, including Maximum Credible Earthquakes (MCEs). In the framework of NDSHA, the general unit of processing time ranges from minutes to seconds, depending on the size of the study area and on the amount of computations. When the structural spectral information is available, the processing time significantly drops to a few seconds. Accordingly, a NDSHA scenario-based EEW relies on a hazard database, made by a collection of Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) maps, prepared and stored in advance. The establishment of such a hazard database is to consider all possible earthquake scenarios around target source zones based on now-available geophysical knowledge. Taking Xianshuihe (XSH) fault as an example, the six steps of the procedure to build the necessary hazard database could be the following: (1) definition of seismogenic zone; (2) definition of the first scenario source; (3) determination of source parameters; (4) determination of structural models; (5) computation of synthetic seismograms from the first source; (6) repeat (1) ~ (5), to travel all sources. Steps 1 to 6 allows us to obtain final (3264 in our case) results, i.e., the MMI maps for the adopted earthquake scenarios, which should be well representative of the potential earthquakes related to XSH.

As a first-order approximation in the construction of the hazard database, we assigned a characteristic focal mechanism for each cellular scenario earthquake. Once the hazard database is available, effective warning can be quickly issued to different end-users by selecting the suitable MMI map in the hazard database.

How to cite: Zhang, Y., Wu, Z., Romanelli, F., Vaccari, F., Jiang, C., Gao, S., Li, J., Kossobokov, V. G., and Panza, G. F.: Scenario-based Earthquake Early Warning empowered by NDSHA, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13334, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13334, 2022.

EGU22-13415 | Presentations | NH4.2

Statistical methods for middle-term forecast of earthquake occurrences 

Renata Rotondi

Investigation into possible precursors of strong earthquakes constitutes a challenging research topic which is carried out mainly in two directions: the one based on the analysis of physical parameters and the one based on statistical methodologies. In the first, recent studies have shown significant correlation between major earthquakes and anomalies of different physical parameters measured in the atmosphere/ionosphere which cover time intervals of months.

On the contrary in this presentation we focus on the statistical modelling of the parameters that constitute an earthquake record in a catalog (location, time, magnitude) and we show that significant variations are observed in the months/years preceding a strong earthquake. In particular we consider the spatial distribution of a set of earthquakes and its temporal variations by modelling the area of Voronoi cells generated by the epicenters through a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Following the Bayesian paradigm we analyze the recent seismicity of the central Italy and we compare the posterior marginal likelihood of the most promising distributions in shifting time windows. We point out that the best fitting distribution varies over time and the trend of the GP distribution and of other distributions among the most studied in the literature converges to that of the exponential distribution a few months before the start of the preparatory phase to the main shock.

How to cite: Rotondi, R.: Statistical methods for middle-term forecast of earthquake occurrences, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13415, 2022.

SM8 – Computational, Theoretical Seismology and Big Data

The spectral boundary integral equation (SBIE) method is widely used for numerical modeling of earthquake ruptures at a planar interface between two elastic half-spaces. It was originally proposed by Geubelle and Rice (1995) based on the boundary integral formulation of Budiansky and Rice (1979). The distinguishing feature of the formulation is that it involves performing elastodynamic space-time convolution of the displacement discontinuities at the interface between the two solids. The method was extended to bi-material interfaces by Geubelle and Breitenfeld (1997) and Breitenfeld and Geubelle (1998). An alternative boundary integral formulation to that of Budiansky and Rice (1979) is that of Kostrov (1966), where the elastodynamic space-time convolution is done of the tractions at the interface between the two solids. A SBIE method based on the latter formulation was proposed by Ranjith (2015) for plane strain. In the present work, the SBIE method for antiplane strain based on the formulation of Kostrov (1966) is proposed and compared with other approaches. Illustrations of the use of the method for simulating dynamic antiplane ruptures at bi-material interfaces are given.

How to cite: Kunnath, R.: A new spectral boundary integral equation method for antiplane problems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9, 2022.

EGU22-349 | Presentations | SM8.1

Numerical Advances in Understanding the Behavior of Gravity Retaining Wall during Seismic Motions 

Prerna Singh, Priyanka Bhartiya, Tanusree Chakraborty, and Dipanjan Basu

The response of gravity retaining walls during ground motion is still a challenging field. Recent developments in computational methods have opened the possibility of enhancing the understanding of the non-linear nature of soil-structure systems, e.g., earth pressure thrust acting on the retaining wall, translational and rotational movements, propagation of waves in the soil more realistically and quickly. Till today, Mononobe Okabe (MO) method (pseudo-static) is the most used analytical method because of its simplicity. However, there are many limitations and gives over-conservative results in terms of earth pressure thrust, and many literatures have already justified such a response. Several improved studies are already available, but very few have considered proper soil-structure interaction, real-time input earthquake data (not sinusoidal), and a sufficient number of earthquakes to evaluate the response acting on the wall during dynamic loading.

We seek contribution by analyzing the problem numerically using FE software Plaxis 2D and studying the behavior of retaining wall during seismic loading (range of amax = 0.053g to 1.2g) in terms of acceleration, displacement, rotation, and earth pressure thrust of retaining wall. The main contribution observed is the acceleration was not uniform throughout the medium instead gets amplified up to around 0.6g and later gets attenuated with maximum amplification occurring at the top of the retaining wall followed by the top of backfill soil and base of the wall. The residual displacement and rotation showed an incremental trend with an increase in horizontal seismic coefficient (kh). The earth pressure thrust obtained using numerical analysis was comparatively less than predicted by the MO method.

Keywords: Gravity retaining wall; Acceleration amplification response; Earth pressure thrust; Finite element method; 

How to cite: Singh, P., Bhartiya, P., Chakraborty, T., and Basu, D.: Numerical Advances in Understanding the Behavior of Gravity Retaining Wall during Seismic Motions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-349, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-349, 2022.

EGU22-508 | Presentations | SM8.1

Do Large Earthquakes along Major Faults Synchronize in Time? 

Eyup Sopaci and Atilla Arda Özacar

The triggering mechanism of earthquakes and their synchronization in time and space can be considered the two sides of the same coin. Our previous studies on earthquake triggering reveal sensitive parameters affecting the triggering mechanism using simple spring slider systems. We pursue our previous analyses by considering a simulation set-up for synchronizing three strong asperity patches on a vertically oriented strike-slip fault with initial slip heterogeneity separated by barriers and strong creeping regions at the edges. This analogy intends to explore earthquake synchronization in time and mimic observed sequences of large earthquakes that ruptured most of the North Anatolian Fault within short time intervals. Using the quasi-dynamic and full-dynamic pseudo-spectral Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) method, we apply a periodic fault model governed with Rate-and-State Friction (RSF) law embedded in a 2.5D continuum. Simulation results so far using the quasi-dynamic approach revealed that the earthquake synchronization is mainly affected by direct velocity effect parameters, barrier dimension/properties, and RSF law (aging and slip law), particularly the weakening terms. Lower direct velocity effect parameters, state evolutions with a stronger weakening term such as slip law, and shorter barrier lengths promote better synchronization. In this respect, we observed fast, slow, or no synchronization depending on the parameter sets. It is also worth noting that slip localizes in the continuum at small critical slip distances, which cannot be inferred from simple 1D models, suggesting the size dependence. In order to minimize inherent non-uniqueness and uncertainties, the same set-up will also be simulated with the full-dynamic approach in which wave-mediated stress transfer is taken into account, and the long-term earthquake histories will be correlated with case-specific simulations.

How to cite: Sopaci, E. and Özacar, A. A.: Do Large Earthquakes along Major Faults Synchronize in Time?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-508, 2022.

It is widely accepted that the rupture area of earthquake is controlled by fault geometry and the interaction between segments. Besides, many earthquakes do not rupture the whole seismogenic depth but only some limited depth zone. It is not so often to observe that a moderate earthquake such as the 2019 Mw4.9 Le Teil, France, earthquake shows a clear surface rupture and the very shallow rupture area limited at the first 1-2 km depth. Aochi and Tsuda (EGU, 2021) propose the concept that the fault is not uniformly loaded along dip due to the 1D layered structure. Namely, the stress is loaded mainly on the stiff layers, while the soft layers play a role of barrier. We use a boundary element method and a spectral element method for simulating the dynamic rupture propagation and wave propagation. We then demonstrate that the shallowest soft layer can be slipped if the rupture at deeper portion is sufficiently developed. On the other hand, a depth soft layer is difficult to be ruptured, mainly because the absolute stress level is high. In our synthetic scenarios, we compare the ground motions around the fault. In the usual model where the stress is uniformly loaded on all the depths, we observe a strong coherent pulse as the rupture progresses fast to the ground surface. However, we observe more than one pulse in our setting. Such heterogeneous condition along dip should be important to investigate the causality of the seismic asperity and the influence on the resultant near-field ground motion.

How to cite: Aochi, H. and Tsuda, K.: Numerical simulation of dynamic rupture and ground motion on a fault non-uniformly loaded along dip, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1672, 2022.

Earthquakes occur by sudden slippage along pre-existing faults via a frictional instability. Laboratory-derived rate and state friction laws have emerged as powerful tools for investigating the mechanics of earthquakes. Two types of state‐variable evolution laws are commonly used to fit the experimental data, the aging and slip laws. The aging evolution law has been used extensively to model the earthquake cycle, including the nucleation, dynamic rupture propagation and arrest, and interseismic period. The slip law, which generally provides a better fit to rock friction experiments, has rarely been used in simulations of the whole seismic cycle. In addition, faults are zones with complex internal structure and non-planar geometry, which also affect the rupture process during the seismic cycle.

In this study, I examine the effects of fault geometry, state evolution law, and friction parameters on the earthquake source process with fully dynamic 2-D simulations of earthquake sequences on planar and non-planar faults. The numerical approach accounts for all stages in the seismic cycle and enables modeling slip that is comparable to the minimum wavelength of roughness. I test the statistics of the events in terms of static source parameters and analyze in detail the rupture process during the nucleation and dynamic propagation stages. For the same friction parameters and fault geometry, the slip law results in a more rapid weakening of the friction coefficient than the aging law. That leads to ruptures with smaller nucleation sizes, larger slip rates, and larger rupture speeds for the slip law, including transition to supershear. With the aging law, a small level of fault roughness is enough to introduce considerable complexity into the rupture process, with larger amount of aseismic slip and larger variability in earthquake sizes.  For the same level of roughness, those effects are significantly smaller in the case of the slip law.

How to cite: Tal, Y.: The Seismic Cycle on Rate and State Faults with Different Evolution Laws and Fault Geometries, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2368, 2022.

EGU22-2414 | Presentations | SM8.1

Epistemic uncertainty in fault geometry effects earthquake rupture behavior 

Olaf Zielke, Theodoros Aspiotis, and Paul Martin Mai

It is well established in the seismology community that geometric complexity plays an important role for a fault’s seismotectonic behavior. It affects the initiation, propagation and termination of an earthquake as well as influencing the stress-slip relationship, the size of fault segments, and the probability of multi-segment rupture. Consequently, fault geometric complexity is studied intensively and increasingly incorporated into computational earthquake rupture simulations. These efforts reveal a problem: While we may be able to constrain a natural fault’s geometry with a high level of detail at the surface (i.e., the fault trace), we cannot do the same for the buried portion of the fault -where most of the rupture takes place. How much does a fault’s seismotectonic behavior vary as a result of this epistemic uncertainty?

We address this question computationally with a physics-based multi-cycle earthquake rupture simulator (MCQsim), enabling us to investigate how (for example) earthquake recurrence, slip accumulation, magnitude-frequency distribution, and fault segmentation vary (looking at the entire fault as well as individual locations on the fault) as function of our insufficient knowledge about the fault’s geometric complexity. To simulate fault geometric complexity, we generate 2-D random fields, using the “random midpoint displacement” method (RMD), representing the fault’s non-planar, self-similar geometry. The advantage of using RMD is that it allows us to create a 2-D random field while also keeping one or more of the field’s edges at a prescribed value. Hence, this approach allows us to generate a random field to represent fault roughness while also allowing us to incorporate what is known about the fault geometry (i.e., the fault surface trace, representing one of the random field’s edges). In doing so, we can investigate how the aforementioned seismo-tectonic parameters vary as a function of fault roughness uncertainty.

For this purpose, we create 5000-year long earthquake catalogs for a 150x18km large strike slip fault that is parameterized by more than 40k fault cells (average cell size 0.07km^2), containing earthquakes with 3.5 < M < 7.8. We create these catalogs for 100 roughness realizations while keeping the simulated fault’s surface trace constant for all realizations. The results of these simulations will be presented in our presentation.

How to cite: Zielke, O., Aspiotis, T., and Mai, P. M.: Epistemic uncertainty in fault geometry effects earthquake rupture behavior, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2414, 2022.

EGU22-2676 | Presentations | SM8.1

Ground-motion simulation in the Calabrian accretionary prism (Southern Italy) using a 3D geologic-based velocity model 

Giulia Sgattoni, Irene Molinari, Lorenzo Lipparini, Licia Faenza, and Andrea Argnani

Ground motion prediction is one of the main goals in seismic hazard assessment. Empirical ground motion prediction equations may fail to reproduce the complexity of ground shaking in complex 3D media and therefore the use of full waveform modelling is increasingly adopted to model ground shaking. The knowledge of the 3D crustal structure in terms of geometries of the main discontinuities and velocities is fundamental to model wave propagation. However, we often lack detailed geological and geophysical information to build reliable models.

We exploit here a large set composed of high-resolution 2D and 3D seismic data and of about 40 wells with stratigraphic and velocity information, both onshore and offshore, to constrain a 3D crustal velocity model in a sector of the Calabrian accretionary prism (southern Italy). We interpret the main reflection discontinuities and constrain their depth at all available wells in the study area and we use well’s check-shots and velocity data to estimate interval-velocities of the main stratigraphic units. We then combine all depth and velocity information into a regional 3D crustal velocity model of the first 8-10 km. This is subsequently extended to a depth of ~50 km using available regional crustal models to obtain the final model used for ground motion simulation.

We implement our crustal model in the spectral-element code SPECFEM3D_Cartesian to simulate wave propagation in the 3D velocity model honoring surface topography. This allows reconstructing the low-frequency part of the waveforms (up to ~1 Hz), which is then combined with high-frequency seismograms obtained with a stochastic method following the hybrid broadband simulation approach by Graves and Pitarka (2010).

We evaluate the goodness of our model by simulating real earthquakes and comparing simulated and recorded waveforms at the available seismic stations in the area. We compare the results from our 3D model with the ones obtained using a local tomography model and the European crust model EPcrust. The maps of ground motion obtained from the simulated broadband waveforms are then compared with empirical ShakeMaps. These results will also be useful for earthquake scenario calculations, by simulating potential seismic sources identified from structural analysis of geological and seismic data.

How to cite: Sgattoni, G., Molinari, I., Lipparini, L., Faenza, L., and Argnani, A.: Ground-motion simulation in the Calabrian accretionary prism (Southern Italy) using a 3D geologic-based velocity model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2676, 2022.

EGU22-3110 | Presentations | SM8.1

Numerical Modeling of Cascading Foreshocks and Aftershocks in Discrete Fault Network 

Kyungjae Im and Jean-Philippe Avouac

Earthquakes often come in clusters formed of foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequences. This clustering is generally thought to result from a cascading process which is commonly modeled using either the phenomenological ETAS model or a stress-based model assuming an earthquake nucleation process governed by Coulomb stress changes and Rate-and-State friction (CRS). In this work, we numerically investigated the foreshock and aftershock sequence in a discrete fault network with rate and state friction law and compared the result with the ETAS model. We set a fault zone consisting of dense fault segments and an off-fault area consisting of sparsely distributed smaller faults in the simulation domain. The CRS simulations are conducted 100 times with 1000 discrete faults with randomly generated fault location, initial velocity, and fault length within the weighted distribution, yielding a Gutenberg-Richter law. The simulations produce realistic foreshocks and aftershocks sequences. Aftershocks occur in the area of increased Coulomb stress and decay following Omori law as observed in nature. Individual foreshock sequences do not show a clear trend, but once stacked, they show an apparent inverse-Omori law acceleration. The prediction from our CRS model can be fitted with the ETAS model. This is not surprising since ETAS incorporates the Omori and Gutenberg-Richter laws. However, our CRS model predicts significantly more foreshocks than would be expected from the ETAS model. This results from the fact that the triggering productivity is lower in the aftershock sequence than in the foreshocks due to the depletion of critically stressed faults in our simulations. In other words, the ETAS is not compatible with the CRS model because Coulomb stress changes result in a time advance (if positive) or delay (if negative). This clustering process is fundamentally different from the additive process assumed in ETAS. As a result, the claim made that foreshocks more frequent than expected based on ETAS imply pre-seismic slip might be incorrect. It could alternatively be a manifestation of the nucleation process.

How to cite: Im, K. and Avouac, J.-P.: Numerical Modeling of Cascading Foreshocks and Aftershocks in Discrete Fault Network, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3110, 2022.

EGU22-3555 | Presentations | SM8.1

Detection Limits and Near-Field Ground Motions of Fast and Slow Earthquakes 

Grzegorz Kwiatek and Yehuda Ben-Zion

We investigate theoretical limits to detection of fast and slow seismic events and discuss spatial variations of ground motion expected from an synthetic family of M6 earthquakes at short epicentral distances. The performed analyses are based on synthetic velocity seismograms calculated with the discrete wavenumber method assuming seismic velocities and attenuation properties of the crust in Southern California. The examined source properties include  magnitudes ranging from M -1.0 to M 6.0, static stress drops (0.1-10 MPa), and slow and fast ruptures (0.1-0.9 of shear wave velocity). For the M 6.0 events we also consider variations in rise times producing crack- and pulse-type events and different rupture directivities. We found slow events produce ground motions with considerably lower amplitude than corresponding regular fast earthquakes with the same magnitude, and hence are significantly more difficult to detect. The static stress drop and slip rise time also affect the maximum radiated seismic motion, and thus event detectability. Apart from geometrical factors, the saturation and depletion of seismic ground motion at short epicentral distances stem from radiation pattern, earthquake size (magnitude, stress drop), and rupture directivity. The rupture velocity, rise time and directivity affect significantly the spatial pattern of the ground motions. The results can help optimizing detection of slow and fast dynamic small earthquakes and understand the spatial distribution of ground motion generated by large events.

How to cite: Kwiatek, G. and Ben-Zion, Y.: Detection Limits and Near-Field Ground Motions of Fast and Slow Earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3555, 2022.

EGU22-4709 | Presentations | SM8.1

On the relation between the coefficient of friction of a fault and the variation of damage degree on the host rock: a numerical approach 

Ludovico Manna, Marcin Dabrowski, Matteo Maino, Leonardo Casini, Alessandro Reali, and Giovanni Toscani

We present a study on the dependence of the frictional properties of a fault rock on its degree of damage. The purpose is therefore to gain insight into frictional sliding, the governing force that controls earthquake nucleation, propagation and arrest. The focus on this topic is to try to find a reason for the experimental evidence that the friction coefficient seems to be almost independent on lithology. A possible explanation to investigate through the numerical modelling could be that the frictional properties of a realistic fault rock depend mostly on the concentration of micro- to macroscopic cracks and/or of lamellar phyllosilicates in the host rock, rather than on the composition of its bulk materials. The formalism of the Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) can quantitatively reproduce the stresses and the strains on the interface propagating frictional rupture. The purpose is to use a Finite Element Method (FEM) numerical code in order to simulate the plane strain elastic deformation of a two-dimensional medium crossed by elliptical fractures and weak anisotropic inclusions. The analysis of the distribution and orientation of the stresses resulting from the interaction of a system of randomly oriented elliptical fractures under different loading conditions could provide information on the onset and propagation of frictional ruptures, such as real contact area reduction, slip velocity, number and length of global sliding precursors. The magnitude and orientation of the principal stresses around the tips of elliptical voids are crucial for the understanding of fracture coalescence and frictional reactivation of shear cracks in an elastic rock, which in turn is one of the main factors that govern the seismic cycle of natural faults. 

How to cite: Manna, L., Dabrowski, M., Maino, M., Casini, L., Reali, A., and Toscani, G.: On the relation between the coefficient of friction of a fault and the variation of damage degree on the host rock: a numerical approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4709, 2022.

EGU22-5309 | Presentations | SM8.1

The onset of faulting around geometrically irregular faults 

Amir Sagy, Doron Morad, Yossef H. Hatzor, and Vladimir Lyakhovsky

Geological and geophysical observations indicate that fault geometry is nonplanar, includes irregularities in all directions at many scales. The geometrical heterogeneity of faults is particularly critical during the interseismic stage of the earthquake cycle because it perturbs the stress field and thus affects the rupture nucleation along the fault zone and around it. We present a new analytical solution for the static stress field around a rough interlocked interface obtained under compressional stresses, and discuss its applications to faulting and seismic hazards. The model outputs are the local stress field and the Failure-Ratio, defined here as the susceptibility to failure of the bulk material around the interface. The calculations are then obtained by the following steps: First, the interface geometry is represented by a Fourier series. Then, the stress components around the irregular interface are calculated analytically using perturbation theory for any two dimensional far-field stress tensor. Finally, the Failure Ratio at any location near the interface is estimated by adopting a Coulomb failure criterion for the bulk material.

The model results can be applied to faulting mechanics because they demonstrate how the elastic stress field around rough fault is controlled by the geometry and by the tectonic stresses. We find that under a given tectonic stress state, stress heterogeneity increases with roughness. Therefore, some zones near rough faults are expected to yield at lower tectonic shear stress comparing to zones nearby smooth ones. However, the magnitudes of these events are expected to be relatively small, as they nucleate under relatively low tectonic stresses and fail as they propagating immediately to a stress shadow. This stress distribution promotes small seismic events near rough fault and therefore we suggest that increasing heterogeneity of the surface, contributes to increasing of the b-value in Gutenberg-Richter earthquakes distribution.

We compare the model predictions with results of experiments performed on rough rock surfaces and find good agreement between the locations of off-fault deformation zones and the calculated high Failure-Ratio values. We further test the model implications for stresses and failure around a natural fault system – the San Andreas Fault and find a first-order agreement between Failure-Ratio values and earthquake distribution around this fault system. We conclude that the proposed analytical approach is a useful and practical tool for evaluating the contribution of fault geometry to the seismic hazard potential around it.

 

How to cite: Sagy, A., Morad, D., H. Hatzor, Y., and Lyakhovsky, V.: The onset of faulting around geometrically irregular faults, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5309, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5309, 2022.

EGU22-5432 | Presentations | SM8.1

Simulation of pure qP-wave in vertical transversely isotropic media 

Yi Zhang, Luca De Siena, and Boris Kaus

Acoustic wave equations are widely employed in wavefield extrapolation and inversion due to their simplicity compared to the elastic wave equations. In anisotropic media, qP- and qSV-waves are coupled. Multiple acoustic approximations in the vertical transversely isotropic (VTI) media have been proposed during the last decades. A classic way is to set the vertical S-wave velocity zero. As such, the S-wave artefacts still exist, whose amplitude increases with anisotropy. Setting S-wave velocity zero in all propagating directions tackles the issue. However, the higher-order spatial derivatives in the pure qP-wave equation make it hard to solve in the space domain. The spatial derivatives in the denominator of the pure qP-wave equation make the solution by the spatial-domain finite-difference unstable.  In this study, we employed the time-domain pseudospectral method to solve both the classic acoustic wave equation and the pure qP-wave equation in VTI media. Hybrid absorbing boundary conditions are used. Both equations are applied to reverse time migration (RTM) for the anisotropic Marmousi model. The new qP-wave equation outperformed the classic qP-wave equation regarding the computational time. Further work can be extended to waveform inversion with the pure qP-wave equation.

How to cite: Zhang, Y., De Siena, L., and Kaus, B.: Simulation of pure qP-wave in vertical transversely isotropic media, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5432, 2022.

The 2018 Mw 7.5 Palu earthquake struck the Sulawesi island, Indonesia, in 2018 and was followed by an unexpected tsunami. Using a physics-based, coupled earthquake-tsunami model, Ulrich et al. (2019) showed that direct earthquake-induced uplift could have sourced the tsunami. The 3D dynamic rupture model of the earthquake captures key observations, including the supershear rupture speed and the deformation pattern derived from satellite data. Stress state and fault conditions were tightly constrained by observations combined with simple static analyses based on Mohr-Coulomb theory of frictional failure and a few trial models. The earthquake scenario predicts a combination of up to 6 m of left-lateral slip and 2 m of normal slip on a straight fault segment dipping 65 degrees beneath Palu Bay.

While most studies (e.g. Bai et al., 2018, Ulrich et al., 2019, Oral et al., 2019) suggest a very early supershear transition, the exact timing of the onset of supershear rupture and the driving mechanism of the supershear transition are elusive. Here we revisit the earthquake dynamic rupture modeling based on new high-resolution near-fault deformation maps derived from correlation of optical satellite data. We vary nucleation radius, fault geometry, and off-fault plasticity parametrization to obtain alternative dynamic rupture scenarios. Specific inputs allow delayed transition to supershear. The obtained scenarios are evaluated based on near-fault damage inference.

Additionally, we revisit the tsunami model, adopting advanced strategies for earthquake-tsunami linking and tsunami modeling. In Ulrich et al. (2019), a one-way linking approach with a shallow water equations solver allowed translating the time-dependent seafloor displacements into a tsunami model with wave amplitudes and periods matching those measured at the Pantoloan wave gauge and inundation that is consistent with field survey data. Such modeling workflow yet neglects tsunami generation complexity, acoustic waves, and dispersion, and only approximates horizontal momentum transfer.  We present a 3D fully coupled earthquake-tsunami model (Krenz et al., 2021), that releases these limitations. This allows us to assess how the standard earthquake-tsunami workflow affects our results, and to revisit our conclusions.

How to cite: Ulrich, T., Marconato, L., Gabriel, A.-A., and Klinger, Y.: Revisiting earthquake-tsunami models of the 2018 Palu events using near-fault high-resolution imaging and 3D fully-coupled earthquake-tsunami modeling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5488, 2022.

EGU22-6897 | Presentations | SM8.1

Fluid-driven earthquake sequences and aseismic slip in a poro-visco-elasto-plastic fluid-bearing fault structure 

Luca Dal Zilio, Betti Hegyi, Whitney Behr, and Taras Gerya

There is a growing interest in understanding how geologic faults respond to transient sources of fluid. However, the spatio-temporal evolution of sequences of seismic and aseismic slip in response to pore-fluid evolution is still poorly constrained. In this study, we present H-MEC (Hydro-Mechanical Earthquake Cycles), a newly-developed two-phase flow numerical code — which couples solid rock deformation and pervasive fluid flow — to simulate how crustal stress and fluid pressure evolve during the earthquake cycle on a fluid-bearing fault structure. This unified 2D numerical framework accounts for full inertial (wave) effects and fluid flow in a finite difference method and poro-visco-elasto-plastic compressible medium with rate-dependent strength. An adaptive time stepping allows the correct resolution of both long- and short-time scales, ranging from years to milliseconds during the dynamic propagation of dynamic rupture. We present a comprehensive plane strain strike-slip setup in which we test analytical benchmarks of pore-fluid pressure diffusion from an injection point. We then investigate how pore-fluid pressure evolution and solid–fluid compressibility control sequences of seismic and aseismic slip on a finite fault width. While the onset of fluid-driven shear cracks is controlled by localized collapse of pores and dynamic self-pressurization of fluids inside the undrained fault zone, subsequent dynamic ruptures are driven by solitary pulse-like fluid pressure wave propagating at seismic speed. Furthermore, shear strength weakening associated with rapid self-pressurization of pore-fluid can account for the slip–fracture energy scaling observed in large earthquakes. This numerical framework provides a viable tool to better understand fluid-driven dynamic ruptures — either as a natural process or induced by human activities — and highlight the importance of considering the realistic hydro-mechanical structure of faults to investigate sequences of seismic and aseismic slip.

How to cite: Dal Zilio, L., Hegyi, B., Behr, W., and Gerya, T.: Fluid-driven earthquake sequences and aseismic slip in a poro-visco-elasto-plastic fluid-bearing fault structure, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6897, 2022.

EGU22-7558 | Presentations | SM8.1

First calibration of the physics-based ground motion model of the 2019 Mw4.9 Le Teil earthquake (France) 

Fanny Lehmann, Filippo Gatti, Michaël Bertin, and Didier Clouteau

The seismic risk in France, a region of low to moderate seismicity, is of paramount importance given the large number of industrial and nuclear installations. However, the large uncertainties on the geology and the poor knowledge of active faults make the seismic hazard estimation a challenging task. Despite being a promising tool to explore the underlying uncertainties, numerical simulations must be duly calibrated by reproducing specific events.

In this work, we considered the 2019 Mw4.9 earthquake that occurred at Le Teil village in southern France. This event was recorded by 17 stations of 3-component accelerometers, within an area of 50 km around the epicenter (French Accelerometric Network). We used these records to calibrate the numerical simulation. The seismological P- and S-wave speed profiles used result from a 3D weighted average model for Metropolitan France. In addition, the topography was included in the spatial discretization. The uncertainties on dip, strike, and rake angles were explored in order to calibrate the far-field synthetic ground motion model by determining the eigenquakes that efficiently span a large diversity of sources.

A good agreement between synthetic and recorded time histories was found, despite the simplicity of the geological and source model.

How to cite: Lehmann, F., Gatti, F., Bertin, M., and Clouteau, D.: First calibration of the physics-based ground motion model of the 2019 Mw4.9 Le Teil earthquake (France), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7558, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7558, 2022.

EGU22-7627 | Presentations | SM8.1

The role of rheological heterogeneities in postseismic deformation 

James Moore, Sambuddha Dhar, Jun Muto, Daisuke Sato, and Youichiro Takada

Advances in modelling and access to InSAR and GNSS observations have highlighted the role that rheological heterogeneities play in postseismic deformation. Here we discuss three recent studies (Muto et al. 2019, Sambuddha et al. 2022, and Takada et al. in prep) following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki and 2008 Iwate-Miyagi earthquakes, which reveal both localised and along-strike rheological heterogeneities. We construct a self-consistent physical model of the postseismic deformation for these two events using the Unicycle code (Moore et al. 2019, Barbot, Moore, and Lambert 2017), with which we consider coupled fault slip and viscoelastic flow utilising laboratory-derived constitutive laws to simulate the time series of geodetic observations. All three studies illuminate a crustal low viscosity rheological heterogeneity in the vicinity of Mt Kurikoma / Mt Naruko. This is perhaps to be expected, given the proximity to known active volcanic centres, and is commensurate with observations following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Moore et al. 2017) where we found low-viscosity anomalies beneath Mt Aso and Mt Kuju. However, the heterogeneities the data reveal are not restricted to known volcanic regions, because our results also suggest along-arc heterogeneity in the forearc mantle rheology of north-eastern Japan; specifically we find a narrower cold nose in the Miyagi region and wider for the Fukushima forearc. We also find evidence of interaction between the localized crustal heterogeneity and afterslip in both events, highlighting the importance of addressing mechanical coupling for long-term studies of postseismic relaxation. Variations in rheological properties in the lithosphere are not restricted to viscous and thermal effects, and observations of the Iwate-Miyagi earthquake suggest elastic heterogeneities may also play a role. We therefore conclude by presenting expressions for computing displacements and stress due to localised (faulting) and distributed inelastic deformation in heterogeneous elastic spaces with piece-wise constant homogeneous elastic subregions (Sato & Moore 2022), and their application in the context of the seismic cycle.

 

Muto J, Moore J D P, Barbot S, Iinuma T, Ohta Y, Horiuchi S, Hikaru I, 2019. Coupled afterslip and transient mantle flow after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Science Advances

Dhar S, Muto J, Ito Y, Muira S, Moore J D P, Ohta Y, Iinuma T, 2022. Along-Arc Heterogeneous Rheology Inferred from Postseismic deformation of the 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake.

Moore J D P, Barbot S, Feng L, Hang Y, Lambert V, Lindsey E, Masuti S, Matsuzawa T, Muto J, Nanjundiah P, Salman R, Sathiakumar S, & Sethi H, 2019. jdpmoore/unicycle: Unicycle. In Coupled afterslip and transient mantle flow after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Science Advances 2019. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5688288

Barbot S, Moore J D P, Lambert V, 2017. Displacements and stress associated with distributed anelastic deformation in a half-space. BSSA

Moore J D P, Yu H, Tang C, Wang T, Barbot S, Peng D, Masuti S, Dauwels J, Hsu Y, Lambert V, Nanjundiah P, Wei S, Lindsey E, Feng L, Shibazaki B, 2017. Imaging the distribution of transient viscosity after the 2016 Mw7.1 Kumamoto earthquake. Science

Sato D, Moore J D P, 2022. Displacements and stress associated with localised and distributed inelastic deformation with piecewise-constant elastic variations.

How to cite: Moore, J., Dhar, S., Muto, J., Sato, D., and Takada, Y.: The role of rheological heterogeneities in postseismic deformation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7627, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7627, 2022.

EGU22-8291 | Presentations | SM8.1

Seismic shaking scenarios for city of Dubrovnik, Croatia 

Helena Latečki, Marin Sečanj, Iva Dasović, and Josip Stipčević

The south-eastern part of Adriatic Sea is seismically highly active region where numerous strong events have occurred in historic times. Among these, the most significant is the infamous Great Dubrovnik earthquake of 1667. This event, whose magnitude was estimated to be in the vicinity of Mw 7.0, caused widespread devastation in the whole region. More recently, a large Mw 7.1 event happening in 1979 in Montenegro caused extensive damage along 100 km of coastline, including the area around Dubrovnik. From this it is obvious that the city of Dubrovnik is seismically highly vulnerable and that there is an acute need to better understand possible consequences if an event of such a magnitude would happen today.  
 
One of the major steps in reducing the seismic risk in any region is to simulate seismic shaking and to evaluate expected ground motion for plausible earthquake scenarios. Therefore, our aim in this work is to create several earthquake scenarios for the city of Dubrovnik and estimate seismically most endangered parts of the region. For that purpose, we first assemble a detailed 3D crustal model which includes information on physical parameters of interest (velocity and density) and which reflects all the important geological features of the studied area. Then, we test whether the model is suitable for simulation by computing and comparing broadband seismograms against the recorded data of several moderate events. We validate the results by assessing the goodness of fit for different metrics describing ground-motion. Next, by combining seismic and geophysical data, we define the geometry of the main active faults and parameters required for the rupture model used in the simulation. We calculate synthetic waveforms on a dense grid and then extract intensity measures to determine the expected ground-motion features of a strong seismic event such was The Great Dubrovnik earthquake.

How to cite: Latečki, H., Sečanj, M., Dasović, I., and Stipčević, J.: Seismic shaking scenarios for city of Dubrovnik, Croatia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8291, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8291, 2022.

EGU22-8698 | Presentations | SM8.1

Broadband strong ground motion modeling using planar dynamic rupture model with fractal parameters 

František Gallovič and Ľubica Valentová

Dynamic rupture modeling represents a preferable physics-based approach to strong ground motion simulations. However, its application in a broad frequency range (0-10Hz), interesting for engineering studies, is challenging. The main reason is that relatively simple models with smooth distributions of initial stress and frictional parameters on planar faults result in ground motions with depleted high-frequency content. Several studies suggested that nonplanar rupture surfaces can solve this issue. Nevertheless, fully accounting for rough ruptures typically requires supercomputers, preventing widespread use.

Here we test an efficient approach for the linear slip-weakening friction model on planar fault, based on the Ide and Aochi (2005) multiscale model, with a small-scale fractal distribution of the slip-weakening distance Dc. To intensify the incoherence of the rupture propagation, we also include a variation of the strength and initial stress correlated with Dc. We propose a way to combine the fractal variations of the dynamic parameters with a large-scale dynamic model. The planar fault assumption permits the use of the computationally very fast code FD3D_TSN (Premus et al., 2020). 

We illustrate the approach on a canonical elliptical model with linearly increasing fracture energy (i.e., constant rupture velocity) and the 2016 Mw6.2 Amatrice earthquake smooth rupture model from the dynamic source inversion by Gallovič et al. (2019). We demonstrate that the addition of the small-scale fractal properties results in sustained high-frequency radiation during the rupture propagation and omega-square (apparent) source time functions. The model improves the fit of the recordings of the Amatrice earthquake in the frequency range of 0-10Hz and generates synthetics agreeing with ground motion prediction equations up to 5Hz.

Our FD3D_TSN takes about 5 minutes to simulate the Mw6.2 rupture propagation on a single GPU. Nevertheless, the fractal dynamic model can be easily implemented in any dynamic rupture propagation code. This makes the proposed approach readily applicable in physics-based ground motion predictions for scenario earthquakes in seismic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Gallovič, F. and Valentová, Ľ.: Broadband strong ground motion modeling using planar dynamic rupture model with fractal parameters, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8698, 2022.

EGU22-10523 | Presentations | SM8.1

A Discontinuous-Galerkin approach to model non-classical nonlinearity observed from lab to global scales 

Zihua Niu, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Dave May, Christoph Sens-Schönfelder, and Heiner Igel

Under dynamic perturbations, it has been observed that materials like sedimentary rocks show complex mechanical behaviors. They include the simultaneous dependence of the elastic moduli and attenuation on strain at the same time scale of the perturbations, as well as the conditioning and recovery of the elastic moduli that may happen at time scales that are much larger. The latter cases were recently referred to as non-classical nonlinearity. Aside from laboratory experiments, comparable observations of the non-classical nonlinearity have been made in the field over the past two decades with the development of long-term continuous monitoring of the velocity field inside the Earth using methods such as ambient noise interferometry.

 

A variety of mathematical models that can potentially quantify the non-classical nonlinearity have already been proposed, e.g., the Damage–Breakage Rheology Model, the Internal Variable Model and the Godunov–Peshkov–Romenski model. However, implementing them in numerical schemes suitable to reproduce nonlinear effects in wave propagation on the local, regional, or global scale is challenging. This can be of interest for constraining a more realistic dynamic rheology for the Earth with the field observations.

 

In this work, wave propagation in different non-classical nonlinear models is implemented in FEniCS using the discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method in 1D. Behaviors of the different models are systematically studied and quantitatively compared against measurements. This work lays the foundation for an extension to the simulation of 2D/3D wave propagation in the Earth on the large-scale DG simulation frameworks, e.g., SeisSol and ExaHyPE.

How to cite: Niu, Z., Gabriel, A.-A., May, D., Sens-Schönfelder, C., and Igel, H.: A Discontinuous-Galerkin approach to model non-classical nonlinearity observed from lab to global scales, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10523, 2022.

EGU22-10798 | Presentations | SM8.1

Numerical analysis of the seismic hazard in Sichuan-Yunnan region 

Di Yin, PeiYu Dong, and YaoLin Shi

    The Sichuan-Yunnan region is located in the southern part of Chinese north-south seismic belt and has strong seismic activity. The prediction of future strong earthquake activity in this region has always been a research hotspot. In this study, firstly, we established a quasi-three-dimensional finite element elastic model, combined with the regional geological background and GPS observation data. Then, based on the information of 30 M>6.7 historical earthquakes that occurred in the region over the past 100 years, and constrained by the Coulomb-Mohr rupture criterion, we inverted a possible reasonable initial stress field at a specific time. Secondly, we simulated the development process of each historical earthquake and reproduced the 30 events orderly, by comprehensively considering the tectonic stress loading in the seismogenic stage and the stress change in the co-seismic adjustment stage. However, it is worth noting that there were some uncertainties in the numerical simulation process. We used Monte Carlo random experiments to obtain 5000 kinds of different possible initial values, which all can reproduce the development process of historical events. Then we got different current reginal stress values and calculated earthquake risk coefficient. Finally, we used mathematical methods to investigate the current seismic hazard of the different models, and assembled them into a probability distribution map of possible seismic risk in the region. The preliminary result shows that the seismic risk in the rupture zone of historical earthquakes is greatly reduced, which means relatively safe. Mainly due to the stress change caused by the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, the seismic probability in the northeastern segment of the Longmenshan fault is as high as 30%. At the junction of the southwestern section of the Longmenshan fault and the Xianshuihe fault zone, the seismic probability is about 15-20%. In addition, near the Longling Ruili fault and the Lancangjiang fault in southwestern Yunnan, the value is about 10-15%. In recent years, small earthquakes have occurred frequently in southwestern Yunnan, and the seismic risk in this area is also worth noting.

How to cite: Yin, D., Dong, P., and Shi, Y.: Numerical analysis of the seismic hazard in Sichuan-Yunnan region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10798, 2022.

EGU22-11092 | Presentations | SM8.1

Time-varying stick-slip behaviors described by dehydration kinetics of gypsum 

Mikihiro Kawabata, Yuto Sasaki, Masaaki Iwasaki, Rei Shiraishi, Jun Muto, and Hiroyuki Nagahama

Dehydration embrittlement was proposed to account for intermediate or deep earthquakes (e.g., Raleigh and Paterson, 1965). Many researchers have investigated the frictional instability induced by dehydration of hydrous minerals, such as gypsum (e.g., Milsch and Scholz, 2005; Brantut et al., 2011; Leclère et al., 2016). In addition, time dependence of dehydration of hydrous minerals has been studied based on reaction kinetics (e.g., Sawai et al., 2013). Since kinetics controls the dehydration rate, the effect of dehydration-derived pore fluid pressure on the mechanical strength of rocks can also be represented by kinetics. However, there is no experimental study to quantitatively investigate how pore fluid pressure builds up and controls the mechanical strength of fault gouges in terms of kinetics. Here, we derived time function of pore fluid pressure based on dehydration kinetics of simulated gypsum (bassanite) gouges. First, we conducted friction experiments of simulated gypsum gouges using gas apparatus under eight different conditions of pressures from 10 MPa to 200 MPa and temperatures from room temperature to 180 °C, spanning dehydration condition of gypsum. Each stress-strain curve showed stick-slip behaviors with almost constant stress drops and recurrence intervals depending on the effective pressures under the conditions of room temperature (RT): larger stress drops and longer intervals for higher effective stresses. On the other hand, stress drops and recurrence intervals gradually decrease with time under 200 MPa and 110 °C, close to the dehydration boundary. These results suggested that the elevated pore fluid pressure by dehydration decreases effective pressure and reduces the stress drops and the intervals. We tested this hypothesis as follows. Microstructural observations illuminated marked development of Riedel shears (R1 shear) in samples deformed under the stability field of gypsums (RT and 70 °C), while scarce development of Riedel shears in the sample deformed under 110 °C, being consistent with Leclère et al. (2016)’s observations on that the elevated pore pressure suppress the development of Riedel shears. Based on the equation of state for water (He and Zoller, 1991), we calculated the porosity of the sample deformed under 110 °C. Although the estimated value was smaller than that obtained from dehydration under hydrostatic conditions (Bedford et al., 2017), this result indicates that shear compaction may have occurred due to deformation caused by higher differential stress. Considering that the decrease in effective pressure modulates the amount of stress drops and recurrence intervals, we analyzed frictional coefficients with Mohr’s circle assuming pore fluid pressure. The estimated value of about 0.6 is consistent with Byerlee (1978)’s law. Based on the results, we created a time function for evolution of pore fluid pressure controlled by Avrami-type dehydration kinetics (Avrami, 1940). The estimated Avrami exponent, the important parameter for crystallization, of 3.121 indicated that the dehydration proceeded with nucleation and three-dimensional growth. This function enables more accurate prediction of pore fluid pressure evolution controlled by dehydration kinetics and may contribute to better understanding the effect of hydrous minerals on frequency of intermediate and deep earthquakes.

How to cite: Kawabata, M., Sasaki, Y., Iwasaki, M., Shiraishi, R., Muto, J., and Nagahama, H.: Time-varying stick-slip behaviors described by dehydration kinetics of gypsum, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11092, 2022.

We cross validate a numerical solver for wave propagation in 3-D elastic media written on Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) against the semi-analytical solver for earthquakes in axisymmetric media, using seismic full moment tensors as earthquakes sources, variable earthquake source durations, and comparing observed with synthetic seismograms. The GPU-based solver is based on a numerical formulation of elastodynamic wave equation and can capture isotropic and anisotropic media. The algorithm simulates wave propagation in elastic media in three dimensions and at very high spatial and temporal resolution, and can compute entire wavefields within seconds (Alkhimenkov et al., 2021). For example, the multi-GPU code for elastic wave propagation can compute the entire wavefield of a 1000^3 model (1 billion grid cells) in 40 seconds. We achieve a close-to-ideal parallel efficiency (98% and 96%) on weak scaling tests up to 128 GPUs by overlapping MPI communication and computations. Seismic full moment tensors are routinely used to model a range of seismic processes, natural and anthropogenic, including earthquakes (shear slip), volcanic events, explosions, cavity collapses, landslides, etc. The analytical solver is based on a Thompson-Haskell propagator matrix for layered axisymmetric media (Zhu and Rivera, 2002), with moment tensors as seismic sources, with seismic sources at depths 10s of km below the surface and seismic stations at distances over 2000 km, and has been successfully used in various earthquake source studies (e.g. Alvizuri et al 2018). We validate the GPU-based wave propagation solver through numerical experiments in homogeneous and in layered media, and with observed and synthetic seismograms for an M4.6 earthquake in Linthal, Switzerland on 2017-03-06 with seismic stations at distances up to 30 km. The seismograms from the numerical solver match the analytic and observed seismograms (within frequencies 0.02-0.10 Hz). In future work we will apply the solver to study earthquake source generation, wave propagation in anisotropic media, and seismic source determination.

References
Alkhimenkov, Y., Räss, L., Khakimova, L., Quintal, B., & Podladchikov, Y., 2021. Resolving wave propagation in anisotropic poroelastic media using graphical processing units (CPUs), J. Geophys. Res., 126, doi:10.1029/2020JB021175.
Alvizuri, C., Silwal, V., Krischer, L., & Tape, C., 2018. Estimation of full moment tensors, including uncertainties, for nuclear explosions, volcanic events, and earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 123, 5099–5119, doi:10.1029/2017JB015325.
Zhu, L. & Rivera, L. A., 2002. A note on the dynamic and static displacements from a point source in multilayered media, Geophys. J. Int., 148, 619–627, doi:10.1046/j.1365-246X.2002.01610.x.

How to cite: Alvizuri, C., Alkhimenkov, Y., and Podladchikov, Y.: Cross-validation of a GPU-based wave propagation solver and application to seismic waveform modeling of an M4.6 earthquake in Linthal, Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11592, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11592, 2022.

EGU22-11610 | Presentations | SM8.1

Broadband Dynamic Rupture and Ground Motion Simulations (up to 5 Hz) of the 2016 Mw 6.2 Amatrice, Italy Earthquake 

Taufiq Taufiqurrahman, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Thomas Ulrich, Lubica Valentová, and Frantisek Gallovič

Broadband earthquake ground motion simulations (>1 Hz) are of great interest to seismologists and the earthquake engineering community. The evolution of the earthquake ruptures related to the 2016 Mw 6.2 Amatrice earthquake and the uniquely dense seismological recordings provide an opportunity to understand better the processes controlling earthquake dynamics, strong ground motion, and the relation between earthquakes. We here propose a novel approach to design data-driven broadband (up to 5 Hz) dynamic rupture scenarios from 0.5-1 Hz Bayesian dynamic finite-fault inversion (Gallovič et al., 2019). We analyze the effects of enhancing the best-fitting smooth dynamic source inversion result by subsequent adding of complexity such as non-planar fault geometry (i.e., fault listricity and surface roughness), topography, inelastic off-fault rheology, and visco-elastic attenuation. We utilize the open-source software package SeisSol (www.seissol.org), suited explicitly for incorporating such geometrical complexities and high-resolution simulations performed on modern supercomputers. The obtained scenarios reproduce synthetics resembling the observations in terms of velocity and accelerations waveforms and Fourier-amplitude-spectra (FAS) up to 5 Hz. The simulated peak ground velocity (PGV) maps show de-amplification of ground motion amplitudes on the foot-wall and amplification on the hanging-wall as a consequence of the wave-focusing effect caused by the listric fault curvature. This effect is seen mainly for distances up to 10 km from the fault. Our study suggests that the complexity of the earthquake source should not be neglected for the seismic hazard assessment for regions adjacent to active faults.

How to cite: Taufiqurrahman, T., Gabriel, A.-A., Ulrich, T., Valentová, L., and Gallovič, F.: Broadband Dynamic Rupture and Ground Motion Simulations (up to 5 Hz) of the 2016 Mw 6.2 Amatrice, Italy Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11610, 2022.

Simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) including more than one fault, complex geometries and elastic heterogeneities are challenging. We present a symmetric interior penalty discontinuous Galerkin (SIPG) method accounting for the complex geometries and heterogeneity of the subsurface. The method accommodates two- and three-dimensional domains, is of arbitrary order, handles sub-element variations in material properties and supports isoparametric elements, i.e. high-order representations of the exterior and interior boundaries and interfaces including intersecting faults.

We provide an open-source reference implementation, Tandem, that utilises highly efficient kernels, is inherently parallel and well suited to perform high resolution simulations on large scale distributed memory architectures. Further flexibility is provided by optionally defining the displacement evaluation via a discrete Green's function, using algorithmically optimal and scalable sparse parallel solvers and preconditioners. We highlight the characteristics of the SIPG formulation via an extensive suite of verification problems (analytic, manufactured and code comparison) for elasto-static and seismic cycle problems. We demonstrate that high-order convergence of the discrete solution can be achieved in space and time for elasto-static and SEAS problems.

Lastly, we apply the method to realistic demonstration models consisting of a 2D SEAS multi-fault scenario on a shallowly-dipping normal fault with four curved splay faults, and a 3D multi-fault scenario of instantaneous displacement due to the 2019 Ridgecrest, CA, earthquake sequence. We exploit the curvilinear geometry representation in both application examples and elucidate the importance of accurate stresses (or displacement gradients) representations on-fault. Our results exploit advantages of both the boundary integral and volumetric methods and is an interesting avenue to pursue in the future for extreme scale 3D SEAS simulations.

How to cite: May, D., Uphoff, C., and Gabriel, A.-A.: A discontinuous Galerkin method for sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip on multiple faults using unstructured curvilinear grids, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12166, 2022.

EGU22-12539 | Presentations | SM8.1

Diffuse thick fault representation in 2D SEM for earthquake dynamic rupture simulations 

Jorge Nicolas Hayek Valencia, Dave May, Casper Pranger, and Alice-Agnes Gabriel

Natural fault system observations feature complexity that includes damage variation from the outer damage zone to the fault core and associated rheological degradation (e.g. variation in the frictional strength and spatio-temporal slip localisation). In earthquake dynamic rupture simulations, faults are typically treated as infinitesimally thin interfaces with distinct on- versus off-fault rheologies. Commonly, such faults are explicitly represented in the discretisation of the computational domain.

Here we present a diffuse interface approach for dynamic rupture modelling. We introduce a 2D spectral element method (SEM) with an embedded smeared discontinuity representing volumetric fault slip. Our diffuse fault SEM is inspired by the stress-glut method of Andrews, 1999. In our approach, a subdomain in which the tangential stresses are limited by a critical shear strength and an empirical friction law is embedded in a purely elastic domain, resembling classical discrete fault representations. Our approach is implemented on a structured quadrilateral mesh within an SEM framework for elastic wave propagation, with PETSc (Balay et al. 2019) as a linear algebra back-end.

Our method collapses volumetric complexities onto a distribution within a compact support instead of the traditional interface approach, making it a flexible inelastic zone alternative for mesh-independent fault representation in dynamic rupture simulations. We conduct 2D numerical experiments, including a kinematically driven Kostrov-like crack and spontaneous dynamic rupture as defined in SCEC community benchmarks (Harris et al., 2018) of increasing complexity. We extract the spectral response from seismograms at different receivers normal and along the fault. We also analyse the capacity of flexible fault representation by including mesh-independent fault geometries. 

Our approach will allow us to incorporate volumetric failure rheologies in SEM dynamic rupture simulations and is part of the TEAR ERC project (www.tear-erc.eu).

How to cite: Hayek Valencia, J. N., May, D., Pranger, C., and Gabriel, A.-A.: Diffuse thick fault representation in 2D SEM for earthquake dynamic rupture simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12539, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12539, 2022.

EGU22-12624 | Presentations | SM8.1

Estimation of Rupture Scenarios along the Cascadia Megathrust from Interseismic Locking Models 

Yuk Po Bowie Chan, Hongfeng Yang, and Suli Yao

In the West of Northern America, the Cascadia subduction zone that extends over one thousand kilometers has well-documented geological records of megathrust earthquakes. The most recent one occurred in 1700 AD with a moment magnitude of 9. Hence, it has been more than 300 years since the last earthquake, suggesting that Southern Cascadia is mature for the next large earthquake. Estimating future rupture scenarios is therefore crucial for earthquake hazard assessment in the region. Multiple interseismic locking distributions have been proposed for Cascadia. Since each locking model differs from another, it remains unclear how to estimate future rupture extents from interseismic locking distributions. Here, we use 3-D dynamic rupture simulations to investigate the potential rupture segmentation in Cascadia and test the dependency of rupture propagation on hypocenter, especially for the Southern Cascadia. We process the slip deficit distributions from locking models by interpolation and smoothening with a gaussian filter. We then calculate the corresponding stress changes with the assumption that all slip deficits would be released during a coseismic event and derive different initial stress distributions by prescribing constant dynamic stress. For the northern segment, the stress-shadowing (Lindsey et al. 2021) and the viscoelastic (Li et al. 2018) interseismic locking models based respectively on elastic and visco-elastic deformation have similar stress levels, lower than those derived from the Gamma model (Schmalzle et al. 2014). In addition, the Gamma model displays a distinct low-stress gap in the central segment but the stress-shadowing and viscoelastic models show smooth transition stress changes. Since the stress-shadowing and the viscoelastic locking models bear a resemblance, dynamic simulations are then developed based on the initial stress conditions derived from the viscoelastic and the Gamma models by prescribing artificial nucleation zones on the fault plane with varied hypocentre locations. Preliminary results demonstrate three major rupture scenario types - self-arrested, segmented, and full-margin ruptures for both stress models. Given the same conditions, both models indicate that Southern Cascadia with a shorter recurrence interval has a lower potential of growing into a margin-wide rupture compared to the central segment. The southern segment mainly hosts self-arrested and segmented ruptures with Mw ranging from ~6.7 to >7.3. Another finding is strong along-strike variations in stress distribution flavor segmented ruptures while homogeneous stress field promotes margin-wide ruptures. For ruptures initiating from the central segment, several segmented ruptures with Mw 8.14 to larger than 8.25 are observed from the Gamma model but such features are absent in the viscoelastic model. Apart from segmented ruptures, the margin-wide ruptures have amplitudes of ground surface vertical displacement comparable to the subsidence record in the A.D. 1700 megathrust earthquake, particularly for the along-strike variation in the Gamma model.

How to cite: Chan, Y. P. B., Yang, H., and Yao, S.: Estimation of Rupture Scenarios along the Cascadia Megathrust from Interseismic Locking Models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12624, 2022.

EGU22-13390 | Presentations | SM8.1

Influence of pre-stress conditions in 2D plane strain simulations of a dynamic rupture with off fault damage 

Louise Jeandet Ribes, Marion Thomas, and Harsha Bhat

Understanding the mechanical properties of the off-fault medium and its interactions with earthquake rupture is essential for a better understanding of the behavior of fault zones. In this framework, two-dimensional, plane strain models are often used to investigate the interplay between seismic rupture propagation and inelastic deformation in the damage zone. The role of pre-stress conditions for faulting and damage has been studied, in particular the influence of Y, the angle between the largest principal stress and the fault strike. However, in plane strain conditions, the out-of-plane stress is often ignored when setting up the initial stress field, and its influence on dynamic rupture and stress evolution has not been inferred. In this study, we explore the role of the out-of-plane pre-stress for a 2D in-plane model in plane strain conditions. We model a 1D right-lateral, strike-slip vertical fault featuring slip-weakening friction law. We first demonstrate theoretically that if the out- of-plane stress is not considered properly in the initial stress field, pre-stress conditions may not correspond to actual strike-slip faulting. We then investigate how changing the initial stress field can influence the rupture and the stress evolution in the off-fault medium. Our results show that if it does not influence significantly the rupture dynamics, the out-of-plane stress is essential in controlling the evolution of the off-fault medium, especially the localization and extend of areas affected by plastic yielding. Therefore, our results demonstrate the importance of considering properly the initial out-of-plane stress to infer the extend, magnitude and distribution of damage in 2D plane strain simulations with off fault plastic deformation.

How to cite: Jeandet Ribes, L., Thomas, M., and Bhat, H.: Influence of pre-stress conditions in 2D plane strain simulations of a dynamic rupture with off fault damage, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13390, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13390, 2022.

EGU22-13551 | Presentations | SM8.1

A unified model for thermally-activated fault weakening during nonlinear dynamic earthquake rupture and off-fault fracturing in 3D diffuse fault zones 

Duo Li, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Simone Chiocchetti, Maurizio Tavelli, Ilya Peshkov, Evgeniy Romenski, and Michael Dumbser

Earthquake fault zones are more complex, both geometrically and rheologically, than an idealized infinitely thin plane embedded in linear elastic material. Field and laboratory measurements have revealed intense fault weakening induced by flash heating and melting on natural fault (Di Toro et al., 2006; Goldsby & Tullis, 2011) and complex fault zone structure involving both tensile and shear fractures spanning a wide spectrum of length scales (e.g., Mitchell & Faulkner, 2009). Previous 2D numerical models explicitly accounting for off-fault fractures have demonstrated important feedback with rupture dynamics and ground motions (e.g., Thomas & Bhat 2018, Okubo et al., 2019). However, numerical studies of thermal-related weakening mechanisms usually avoid frictional melting due to the lack of the solid-fluid phase transition. 

In the work of Gabriel et al. (2021), we have presented our first-order hyperbolic and thermodynamically compatible mathematical model, namely the GPR model (Godunov & Romenski, 1972; Romenski, 1988), combined with a diffuse crack representation to incorporate finite strain nonlinear material behavior, natural complexities and multi-physics coupling within and outside of fault zones into dynamic earthquake rupture modeling. We compare our novel diffuse interface fault models of kinematic cracks, spontaneous dynamic rupture, and dynamically generated off-fault shear cracks to sharp interface reference models. Pre-damaged faults, as well as dynamically induced secondary cracks are therein described via a scalar function indicating the local level of material damage (Tavelli et al., 2020); arbitrarily complex geometries are represented via a diffuse interface approach based on a solid volume fraction function (Tavelli et al., 2019). 

Here we further extend the diffuse crack representation to more complicated scenarios including severe dynamic fault zone weakening as activated by flash heating, the effect of locally melting rocks, and off-fault cracks with complex topology in 3D materials, by taking advantage of adaptive Cartesian meshes (AMR) embedded in the extreme-scale hyperbolic PDE solver ExaHyPE (Reinarz et al., 2019). We intend to compare our thermally-weakened rupture in diffused fault zone with the semi-analytical thermal pressurization weakening implemented in the linear elastodynamic rupture on an infinitely-thin fault surface, using SeisSol (https://github.com/SeisSol). We will further qualitatively verify our model using the up-to-date observations in the 2020 M8.2 Chignik, Alaska, to illustrate the importance of thermal weakening on relatively deeper faults.

Our approach is part of the TEAR ERC project (www.tear-erc.eu) and will potentially allow to fully model volumetric fault zone shearing during earthquake rupture, which includes spontaneous partition of fault slip into intensely localized shear deformation within weaker (possibly cohesionless/ultracataclastic) fault-core gouge and more distributed damage within fault rocks and foliated gouges.

How to cite: Li, D., Gabriel, A.-A., Chiocchetti, S., Tavelli, M., Peshkov, I., Romenski, E., and Dumbser, M.: A unified model for thermally-activated fault weakening during nonlinear dynamic earthquake rupture and off-fault fracturing in 3D diffuse fault zones, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13551, 2022.

Central America is a seismically active region where five tectonic plates interact (North America, Caribbean, Coco, Nazca, and South America) in a subduction zone with transform faults and near to triple points. This complex tectonic setting makes the estimation of the seismic potential (maximum magnitude) a very important task. There are a series of empirical formulas and diagrams by means of which the seismic potential of faults can be estimated from rupture earthquake geometry parameters. In this study, some of these formulas were applied to approximate the magnitude of earthquakes occurred in Central America, comparing the estimated magnitudes with those observed instrumentally. This has been accomplished based on the most complete data set of relevant and better characterized earthquakes generated by faults in the region. The data set consists in a compilation of the seismic events and its relatively well-established rupture parameters (length, width, area, slip, magnitude) and characteristics (location, faults, or possible associated faults, as well as localized aftershocks). The slip rate was incorporated, when available, but considering the current lack of information and, in some cases, the high uncertainty in its estimation, the use of other simpler rupture parameters is more practical and applicable for the region. Based on this, we identified which of the current available formulas developed worldwide, estimate magnitudes in a better way for the Central American seismotectonic context. The preliminary results show a better fit with the instrumental data, when the empirical equations were used with the segmented fault length. These outcomes were specifically validated for lengths between 10 and 30 km, in which the database presents good information coverage. We found that some empirical relationships fit quite well the observed data, including the classical Wells & Coppersmith (1994) equations. Finally, according to our data set compilation, we will try to propose a new empirical specific earthquake scaling relationship for Central America to be included in future seismic hazard studies. Is recommended, when possible, complement these approaches with more detailed historical seismicity review and paleoseismological, geodetic and neotectonic studies, to determine more precisely and realistically the fault’s maximum magnitude. Also, we suggest make estimates of the magnitude using the maximum and the segmented fault length and differentiating between ruptures at depth in the seismogenic zone (smaller) and ruptures in surface (larger). This approach is relevant due to the selection of an earthquake scaling relationships for a specific region is typically an abbreviated component of seismic-hazard analysis, being an important issue for the definition of source models which are one of the main inputs in the hazard estimation.

How to cite: Arroyo Solórzano, M., Benito, B., Alvarado, G., and Climent, Á.: Analysis and proposal of empirical magnitude scaling relationships for the seismic potential of earthquakes in Central America: its application for seismic hazard studies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-295, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-295, 2022.

EGU22-479 | Presentations | NH4.3

Detecting the preparatory phase of induced earthquake at The Geysers (California) using K-means and LSTM 

Antonio Giovanni Iaccarino and Matteo Picozzi

What happens just before and generates a moderate to large earthquake is still on debate. Two different models are usually proposed. The first considers the main event as triggered by cascading effect from multiple random small earthquakes. The other one proposes the existence of a preparatory phase in which the seismicity slowly migrates towards the hypocentral zone loading stress on it, until the main event occurs.

In this work, we want to identify the preparatory process from catalogue data. We use data from The Geysers, a geothermal area in California (USA). Many studies showed that the seismicity of the area is triggered by the human activities related to the extraction of geo-energy.

Following the work done in Picozzi and Iaccarino (2021), we compute different features related to the seismicity around moderate events (M>3.5) and we use them as time-series. In this study, the features are computed following a fully causal procedure that make this analysis suitable for a real-time application. We apply both a supervised machine learning technique (LSTM Recurrent Neural Network) and an unsupervised clustering technique (K-means) to highlight the preparatory phase with respect to the background seismicity.

We show that, with both techniques, it is possible to identify a change in the seismicity just before most of the events studied. This confirms the existence, at least in some cases, of a preparatory phase for induced earthquakes at The Geysers.

How to cite: Iaccarino, A. G. and Picozzi, M.: Detecting the preparatory phase of induced earthquake at The Geysers (California) using K-means and LSTM, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-479, 2022.

EGU22-2043 | Presentations | NH4.3

Assessing crustal stability via fault stress perturbation analysis 

Davide Zaccagnino, Luciano Telesca, and Carlo Doglioni

Assessing the stability state of faults is a crucial issue not only for seismic hazard, but also for understanding how the earthquake machine works. A possible approach consists in perturbing fault systems and studying how seismicity changes after additional stress is provided: if the starting energy state is stable, it will oscillate around it; otherwise, the background seismic rate will be modified. Tides provide natural stress sources featured by a wide range of frequencies and amplitudes, which make them a suitable candidate for our needs.  Analyses prove that the brittle crust becomes more and more sensible to stress modulations as the critical breaking point comes close.  Especially, the correlation between the variation of Coulomb failure stress induced by tidal loading, ΔCFS, and seismic energy rate progressively increases as long as seismic stability is kept; conversely, abrupt drops are observed as foreshocks and preslip occur. A preparatory phase, featured by increasing correlation, is usually detected before large and intermediate (Mw > 5) shallow (depth < 50 km) earthquakes. The duration of the anomaly, T, is suggested to be related to the seismic moment M of the impending mainshock by T ∝ M^(1/3) for M < 10^19  N m. The same power exponent characterizes seismic nucleation scaling of single earthquakes. This analogy may be explained assuming that the physical mechanism behind both these phenomena is the same. Consequently, the anomalies we measure might be interpreted as diffuse nucleation phases throughout the crust. The scaling relation becomes T ∝ M^0.1 for M > 10^19 N m, probably because of preparation processes occurring contemporaneously in interacting faults.  We apply this method to dozens of seismic sequences which hit California, Greece, Iceland, Italy and New Zealand, we also analysed seismic activity jointly with slow slip events in the Cascadia subduction zone, Manawatu region and in the Nankai Trough. Even though it is unlikely that our results may ever be of practical use for seismic hazard, the procedure could illuminate slow hidden processes of destabilization taking place within the brittle crust.                                                             

How to cite: Zaccagnino, D., Telesca, L., and Doglioni, C.: Assessing crustal stability via fault stress perturbation analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2043, 2022.

In recent years, it became clear that the seismological community is adopting deep learning (DL) models for many diverse tasks such as problems of discrimination and classification of seismic events, earthquake detection and phase picking, generalised phase detection, earthquake early warning etc. Many models that have been developed and tested reach quite high accuracy values. However, it has been showed that their performances depend on the DL architecture, on the training hyperparameters and on the datasets that are used for training. To help the community to understand how final results and a model’s performance depend on each of these different aspects, we propose implementing some techniques that target the black-box nature of DL models. In this study we applied three visualisation technique to a convolutional neural network (CNN) classification model for the earthquake detection. The implemented techniques are: feature map visualisation, backward optimisation and layer-wise relevance propagation methods. These can help us answer questions such as: How is an earthquake represented within a CNN model? What is the optimal earthquake signal according to a CNN? Which parts of the earthquake signal are more relevant for the model to correctly classify an earthquake sample? These findings can help us understand why the model might fail, how to build better model architectures, but also whether there is a physical meaning embedded in a model from training samples. The CNN used in this study had been trained for single-station detection, where an input sample is a 25 seconds long three-component waveform. The model outputs a binary target: an earthquake (positive) and a noise (negative) class. Following our two output classes, our training database contains a balanced number of samples from both classes. The positive samples span a wide range of earthquakes, from local to teleseismic, with a focus on the local and regional ones. Our analysis showed that the CNN model correctly identifies earthquakes within the sample window, while the position of the earthquake in the window is not explicitly given (based on the high relevance values). The model handles well earthquakes of different distance and magnitude values, without having any physical information about them during the training process. Thus, the model constructs highly abstract latent space where different earthquakes can eventually fit (can be shown by visualising feature maps). We also notice that having non-filtered training samples with low signal to noise ratio does not disrupt the model to generate distinct feature maps, which is crucial for the successful earthquake detection process. Finally, interpretation techniques proved to be useful for having an insight of how the CNN model treats input samples, which is beneficial for understanding whether the architecture is well designed for this task. 

How to cite: Majstorovic, J., Giffard-Roisin, S., and Poli, P.: Post hoc visual interpretation of convolutional neural network model for earthquake detection using feature maps, optimal solutions, and relevance values, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2874, 2022.

We discuss recent results aimed at robust identification and quantification of space-time variations of earthquakes, with the ultimate goal of tracking preparation processes of large earthquakes. The first part focuses on progressive localization of seismicity, which corresponds to mechanical evolution of deformation from distributed failures in a rock volume to localized shear zones, culminating in generation of primary slip zones and large earthquakes. We present a methodology for estimation of localization using earthquake catalogs and acoustic emission experimental data, and showcase its applications to tracking localization processes of large failure events. This analysis is performed with declustered catalogs. The second part describes a technique to assess the degree of regional clustering of earthquakes, and justifies the need for declustering in localization and other analyses of seismicity. We demonstrate that events included in the existing short-duration instrumental catalogs are concentrated strongly within a very small fraction of the space-time volume, which is highly amplified by activity associated with the largest recorded events. The earthquakes that are included in instrumental catalogs are unlikely to be fully representative of the long-term behavior of regional seismicity, creating a bias in a range of seismicity analyses. Methodologically, both discussed topics are based on using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) framework. We demonstrate how this unified framework is adopted for diverse tasks, including assessment of coupled space-time clustering after controlling for space and time marginal inhomogeneities of earthquake rates, and tracking time-dependent transformations of a highly inhomogeneous earthquake space distribution. The examined data include crustal seismicity in California, Alaska and other regions, synthetic catalogs of the ETAS model, and acoustic emission data of laboratory fracturing experiments.

How to cite: Zaliapin, I. and Ben-Zion, Y.: Space-time variations of seismicity: quantitative assessment and systematic changes before large earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3136, 2022.

EGU22-3959 | Presentations | NH4.3

An optimized online version of NESTORE software package for the forecasting of strong aftershocks: an application to Italian clusters 

Stefania Gentili, Piero Brondi, and Rita Di Giovambattista

NESTORE (Next STrOng Related Earthquake) is a recently developed algorithm (Gentili & Di Giovambattista 2017, 2020) to recognize clusters in which a strong mainshock is followed by an aftershock of similar magnitude. Specifically, NESTORE labels clusters as type A if the magnitude difference between the mainshock and its strongest aftershock is less than or equal to 1, otherwise as type B. After an intense earthquake, the prediction of strong following events is strategic for civil protection purposes. In fact, already weakened structures may suffer further damage, increasing the risk of collapse and casualties. The goal of NESTORE is a near real-time estimation of the probability that the ongoing cluster is type A. The software is based on a set of parameters (features) of seismic clusters calculated at increasing time intervals after the mainshock. In particular, the algorithm exploits a training procedure with a feature-based machine learning approach. The features are related to the evolution of the number of events and their space-magnitude distribution over time. To make NESTORE a suitable software for online sharing, we optimized its structure. Specifically, some functions have been improved, further ones have been added, and a new name structure has been introduced to better characterize the three independent modules of NESTORE (cluster identification, training, and testing). This software renovation has been developed in the frame of project “Analysis of seismic sequences for strong aftershock forecasting” funded by a grant from the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation within the collaboration in science and technology between Italy and Japan. We applied this new version of NESTORE to Italian seismicity and in particular to North-Eastern Italy, and obtained information on the features with best performances in terms of type A and B cluster discrimination.

 

Funded by a grant from the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation

How to cite: Gentili, S., Brondi, P., and Di Giovambattista, R.: An optimized online version of NESTORE software package for the forecasting of strong aftershocks: an application to Italian clusters, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3959, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3959, 2022.

EGU22-4721 | Presentations | NH4.3

Structure of Motifs in Seismic Networks 

Gabriel Pană, Virgil Băran, and Alexandru Nicolin

We report detailed statistical results on the structure of motifs in seismic networks covering four distinct terrain regions. Our main finding is that all seismic networks under investigation display motifs which have a distinct scale-free-like structure. 

The seismic networks were constructed from public seismic data using a standard procedure which relies on splitting the seismic region into equally sized cubes, which are the nodes of the seismic network. Then, placing each earthquake, in chronological order, into the cube corresponding to its epicenter, we define a link between two nodes as a series of two subsequent earthquakes with epicenters in different cubes. Using these seismic networks we study the occurrence of 3-node and 4-node motifs, which are triangles and tetrahedrons of the network, and report a scale-free-like behavior of the area or volume of these motifs weighted by the total energy released by the earthquakes contained in the nodes of the motif.

The statistical properties of motifs, in particular the scaling exponents of the aforementioned scale-free-like distributions, can be used to assess the differences and similarities between different seismic regions, without taking into account the inner workings of the plate tectonics. Our approach is fully customizable as all relevant parameters of the network (e.g., size of the cubes, magnitude of earthquakes, considered timeframe, coordinates of epicenters) can be changed to accommodate virtually all seismic regions.  

How to cite: Pană, G., Băran, V., and Nicolin, A.: Structure of Motifs in Seismic Networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4721, 2022.

EGU22-4799 | Presentations | NH4.3

Comparing machine-learning based picking algorithms in a subduction setting 

Nooshin Najafipour and Christian Sippl

As the number of seismic stations and experiments greatly increases due to ever greater availability of instrumentation, automated data processing becomes more and more necessary and important. Machine Learning (ML)methods are becoming widespread in seismology, with programsthat identify signals and patterns or extract features that can eventually improve our understanding of ongoing physical processes. We here focus on comparing and testing a selection of currently available methods for machine-learning-based seismic event detection and arrival time picking, performing a comparative study of the two autopickers EQTransformer and GPD with seismic data from the IPOC deployment in Northern Chile within the open-source Seisbench framework.

As a small benchmark dataset, we chose a random day for which we handpicked all visually discernible events on the 16 IPOC stations, which led to 200 events from 450 extracted, comprising 1493 P and 1163 S-phases. These events cover a large range of hypocentral depths (surface to >200 km) as well as magnitudes (<1.5 to 4.5).

We present first results from the application of the two autopickers EQTransformer and GPD, which have been shown to be most suitable for our type of dataset in a recent study by Münchmeyer et al. (2021), to IPOC data. We use our small benchmark dataset to evaluate detection rate (missed events, false detections) as well as picking accuracy (residuals to handpicks), and also investigate the effect of using different training datasets.

The present study is the first step towards the design of an automated workflow that comprises event detection and phase picking, phase association and event location and will be used to evaluate subduction zone microseismicity in different locations.

How to cite: Najafipour, N. and Sippl, C.: Comparing machine-learning based picking algorithms in a subduction setting, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4799, 2022.

EGU22-4843 | Presentations | NH4.3

Exploring the performance of phase association algorithms 

Jorge Antonio Puente Huerta and Christian Sippl

Seismic phase association plays an important role in earthquake detection and location workflows as it links together seismic phases detected on different seismometers into individual earthquakes. Together with improved phase picking algorithms, a phase association algorithm can generate large earthquake phase data sets and earthquake catalogs when applied to dense permanent or temporary seismic networks. Recently, many efforts have been made on improving seismic phase association performance, such as developing machine learning approaches that are trained on millions of synthetic sequences of P and S arrival times, to generate more precise and complete catalogs including more small earthquakes.

As part of project MILESTONE, which aims at the automatic creation of large microseismicity catalogs in subduction settings, the present study evaluates the performance of the deep-learning based phase association algorithm PhaseLink (Ross et al. 2019) by comparison with a traditional grid-based method and a small handpicked benchmark dataset.

We used seismic data from the IPOC (Integrated Plate boundary Observatory Chile) permanent deployment of broadband stations in Northern Chile, dedicated to the study of earthquakes and deformation at the continental margin of Chile.

For an initial calibration, we manually picked P and S phases of raw waveforms on 15 stations on two randomly chosen days. All events that were visually recognizable were picked and located, which led to a dataset of 251 events comprising 1823 P and 1468 S picks, spanning a depth range from the surface down to 240 km. We use this handpicked dataset as ‘ground truth’, and evaluate the performance of PhaseLink and the grid-based method coupled with a STA/LTA trigger against this benchmark, considering both the numbers of (correctly/falsely) associated events and the number of constituent picks per event.

In a second experiment, we compare PhaseLink and conventional phase associator using a much larger set of STA/LTA alerts from the same region, but without the additional ground truth.

The presented research represents first steps towards an integrated automated workflow for detecting, picking, associating and locating microseismicity in subduction zone settings.

How to cite: Puente Huerta, J. A. and Sippl, C.: Exploring the performance of phase association algorithms, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4843, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4843, 2022.

EGU22-5805 | Presentations | NH4.3

Seismological investigation of Mw=7.3 Karmedec Islands (New Zealand) earthquake occurred on June 15, 2019 

Martina Orlando, Gianfranco Cianchini, Angelo De Santis, Loredana Perrone, Saioa Arquero Campuzano, Serena D'Arcangelo, Domenico Di Mauro, Dedalo Marchetti, Alessandro Piscini, Dario Sabbagh, and Maurizio Soldani

An Mw=7.3 earthquake occurred on June 15, 2019 in New Zealand, Kermadec Islands (30.644° S, 178.100° W, 46 km depth), in correspondence with the Tonga-Kermadec subduction zone, and was characterized by a tectonic setting of shallow reverse faulting.

We investigated the preparatory phase from a seismological point of view, focusing on the analysis of seismic data in the period between January 1, 2018 and June 14, 2019 in an area limited by the Dobrovolsky strain radius. Specifically, the data from the global United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the national New Zealand (GEONet) earthquake catalogues are used in this study.

To characterize the seismicity trend in terms of magnitude distribution variations and strain release with time, we made a two-step analysis. The first one was to calculate the magnitude of completeness (Mc), which is an important parameter when estimating b-values (Wiemer and Wyss, B. Seism. Soc. Am., 2000). After this preliminary step, we observed that the seismicity accelerated during the preparation phase of the earthquake through the Revised Accelerated Moment Release (R-AMR) method (De Santis et al., Tectonophysics, 2015).

Finally, we found that the seismological research of the preparation phase of this earthquake helped to understand, together with other observations from ground and satellite, the so-called Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) phenomena prior to the mainshock.

How to cite: Orlando, M., Cianchini, G., De Santis, A., Perrone, L., Arquero Campuzano, S., D'Arcangelo, S., Di Mauro, D., Marchetti, D., Piscini, A., Sabbagh, D., and Soldani, M.: Seismological investigation of Mw=7.3 Karmedec Islands (New Zealand) earthquake occurred on June 15, 2019, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5805, 2022.

EGU22-5907 | Presentations | NH4.3

Effects of Spatial Grid Resolution on the Statistical Power of Testing Earthquake Forecast Models 

Muhammad Asim Khawaja, Sebastian Hainzl, Pablo Iturrieta, and Danijel Schorlemmer

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is an international effort to independently evaluate earthquake forecasting models and to provide the cyber-infrastructure together with a suite of testing methods. For global forecasts, CSEP defines a grid-based format to describe the expected rate of earthquakes, which is composed of 6.48 million cells for a 0.1º spacing. The spatial performance of the forecast is tested using the Spatial test (S-test), based on joint log-likelihood evaluations. The high-resolution grid combined with sparse and inhomogeneous earthquake distributions leads to many empty cells that may never experience an earthquake, biasing the S-test results. To explore this issue, we conducted a global earthquake forecast experiment. We tested a spatially uniform forecast model, which is non-informative and should be rejected by the S-test. However, it is not rejected by the S-test when the spatial resolution is high enough to allocate each observed earthquake in individual cells, thus raising questions about the test statistical power.

The number of observed earthquakes used to evaluate global forecasts is usually only a few hundred, in contrast to the millions of spatial cells. Our analysis shows that for such disparity, the statistical power of tests for single-resolution grids also depends on the number of earthquakes available to evaluate a model. With few earthquakes, the S-test does not allow powerful testing.

We propose to use a multi-resolution grid to generate and test earthquake forecast models, in which the resolution can be set freely based on available data, e.g., by the number of earthquakes per cell. Data-driven multi-resolution grids demonstrate the ability to reject the uniform forecast, contrary to a high-resolution grid. Furthermore, multi-resolution grids offer powerful testing with as minimum as four earthquakes available in the test catalog. Therefore, we propose to use multi-resolution grids in future CSEP global forecast experiments and to further study its application in regional and local experiments, where such sparsity of observations is present.

How to cite: Khawaja, M. A., Hainzl, S., Iturrieta, P., and Schorlemmer, D.: Effects of Spatial Grid Resolution on the Statistical Power of Testing Earthquake Forecast Models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5907, 2022.

EGU22-6650 | Presentations | NH4.3

Nature of Deep Earthquakes in the Pacific Plate from Unsupervised Machine Learning 

Gilbert Mao, Thomas Ferrand, Jiaqi Li, Brian Zhu, Ziyi Xi, and Min Chen

Deep earthquakes, 300 to 700 km deep, have been observed for decades and shown to originate from major mineral transformations occurring at these depths, including phase transitions of olivine and pyroxenes. Yet, we still do not fully grasp their mechanism. Although transformational faulting in the rim of the metastable olivine wedge (MOW) is hypothesized as a triggering mechanism of deep-focus earthquakes, there is no direct seismic evidence of such rim. Variations of b-value – slope of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution – have been used to decipher triggering and rupture mechanisms of earthquakes. However, regarding deep-focus earthquakes the detection limit prevents full understanding of rupture nucleation at all sizes.

With one of the most complete catalogs, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalog, we estimate the b values of deep-focus earthquakes (> 300 km) of four clusters in the NW Pacific Plate based on unsupervised machine learning. The applied K-means, Spectral and Gaussian Mixture Models Clustering algorithms divide the events into four clusters. For the first time, we observe kinks in the b values with abrupt reductions from 1.5–1.8 down to 0.7–1.0 at a threshold Mw of 3.7–3.8 for the Honshu and Izu clusters, while normal constant b values (0.9–1.0) are observed for the Bonin and Kuril clusters.

The four clusters found by the algorithms actually correspond to events within four different segments of the sinking Pacific lithosphere, characterized by significant differences in hydration state prior to subduction. High b values (1.5–1.8) at low magnitudes (Mw < 3.7–3.8) correlate with highly hydrated slab portions. The hydrous defects would enhance the nucleation of small earthquakes via transformational faulting within the rim. Such mechanism operates for small events with a rupture length of less than 1 km, which would correspond to the thickness of the MOW rim.

Combining with the b-value analysis from the latest CMT catalog, the kink at Mw 6.7 suggests that the thermal runaway mechanism operates for larger earthquakes rupturing through and possibly propagating outside the MOW, with increased heterogeneity in the new rupture domain. The changes of controlling mechanism and rupture domain heterogeneity due to the slab hydrous state and thermal state can explain the spatially varying b values.

How to cite: Mao, G., Ferrand, T., Li, J., Zhu, B., Xi, Z., and Chen, M.: Nature of Deep Earthquakes in the Pacific Plate from Unsupervised Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6650, 2022.

Levels of artificial seismic noise are typically lower at night, when road and train traffic, industries and other human activities are decreased. Such a variable noise hampers detection of small earthquakes preferentially during daytime, so typically they are more frequently recorded at night. Small earthquakes are recorded in higher numbers during the weekends too, also due to the lower artificial noise. Daily variations of earthquake frequencies might also have natural causes, but higher numbers of earthquakes recorded during weekends are unequivocally artificial.

These variations of detection capabilities are usually not well taken into account when looking for natural periodicities of earthquake frequencies, for example when searching for correlations of earthquake occurrence with diurnal or semidiurnal tides.

Featuring examples from different, regional, earthquake catalogues, this presentation shows that using a magnitude of completeness (Mc) calculated from the whole catalogue can be misleading. The reason is that such a value is actually an average between lower Mc values reached during the night (and weekends) and higher ones reached during the day (and working days).

The solution proposed here is to use a high enough Mc value such as the artificial (daily and weekly) periodicities of earthquake frequencies are removed, considering not only the best estimate of Mc but also its uncertainty range.

How to cite: González, Á.: On artificial daily and weekly periodicities of recorded earthquake frequencies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6663, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6663, 2022.

EGU22-7239 | Presentations | NH4.3

A method for characterizing the earthquake-inducing capacity of hydraulic fracturing 

Jun Hu, Hongfeng Yang, Haijiang Zhang, and Yuyang Tan

The seismicity rate in the Southern Sichuan Basin, China (SSBC), has increased by orders of magnitude within the past a few years accompanying the rapidly growing hydraulic fracturing (HF) operations. However, there is currently no appropriate method to directly determine whether a HF platform has induced seismicity and to quantitatively describe its potential of inducing earthquakes. In this study, by taking advantage of a more complete seismic catalog constructed from temporary short-period seismic stations and broadband stations for two adjacent well pads in the SSBC, we investigate a new statistical metrics for detailed studies of earthquake clusters on the "pre- and post-fracture" time scales to characterize their earthquake-inducing capacity. After declustering the earthquake catalog, a small-scale “Spatiotemporal Association Filter (SAF)” is designed to obtain seismic data closely associated with six independent fracturing well groups, and an “Unit Seismic Energy Release (USER)” index is established to evaluate the potential to induce earthquakes. Comparing the differences in the index before and after fracturing, as well as the nonparametric statistical test of each well group’s “Interevent time (IET)” and historical IET, four of the well groups are considered “induced-seismic”, and the other two are “anti-seismic”. The HF well with the largest USER value has the largest inducing capacity. The paired result of the nonparametric test shows that the p values are less than 0.001, indicating significant statistical differences between the IET series before and after the HF process around the four induced-seismic wells. To sum up, our method can conveniently distinguish the earthquake-inducing capacity of different HF wells, and thus offer practical advice for HF operation in the SSBC.

How to cite: Hu, J., Yang, H., Zhang, H., and Tan, Y.: A method for characterizing the earthquake-inducing capacity of hydraulic fracturing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7239, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7239, 2022.

EGU22-7506 | Presentations | NH4.3

Predictive properties of an anisotropic ETAS Space-time model applied to Chilean seismicity 

Marcello Chiodi, Orietta Nicolis, Giada Adelfio, Giulia Marcon, Alex Gonzalez, and Antonino D'Alessandro
Seismic activity can be often described by a space-time ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences) model, which is composed of a background seismicity component (large scale) and a triggering one (small scale). Typically the large-scale component is a spatial inhomogeneous Poissonian process, whose intensity is usually estimated through non-parametric techniques: in the case of Chilean seismicity, the majority of events, with a greater magnitude, occur along the Nazca plate, due to the subduction process, so that the  anisotropic kernel estimates should better describe the background seismicity than the classical isotropic kernel estimates. Similar considerations could be made for triggered events.
In previous papers, we used the ETAS model, with the Forward Likelihood Predictive approach (FLP), with the triggered seismicity modeled with a parametric space-time function, using also some covariates together with the magnitude of the triggering events. From a statistical point of view, a forecast of triggered seismicity can be made in the days following a big event. In this work, we will explore the predictive properties of a new proposal of anisotropic ETAS model, with an extension of the semiparametric approach of etasFLP proposed by Chiodi, et al. (2021).
We used open-source software (R package etasFLP, Chiodi and Adelfio 
(2017, 2020)) to perform the semiparametric estimation of the ETAS model with covariates.
 

How to cite: Chiodi, M., Nicolis, O., Adelfio, G., Marcon, G., Gonzalez, A., and D'Alessandro, A.: Predictive properties of an anisotropic ETAS Space-time model applied to Chilean seismicity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7506, 2022.

EGU22-7510 | Presentations | NH4.3

Pattern analysis of seismicity around Mavrovo lake: a case study for the period July 2020 - November 2021 

Dragana Chernih-Anastasovska, Katerina Drogreshka, Jasmina Najdovska, Lazo Pekevski, and Cvetan Sinadinovski
Two moderate earthquakes with magnitude ML5.0 happened on the 11th of November 2020 near the Mavrovo lake in northwestern Macedonia. Mavrovo lake is an artificial lake with a dam built between 1947 and filled by 1953. Its maximum length is 10km, width is 5km and depth is 50m. We try to investigate the factors which might be causing earthquakes, for example, local geology and seismotectonic regime in the region.
Seismic events of such size can have various sequences of foreshocks and aftershocks, which mostly depend on the earthquake mechanism. In this case study, a numerical analysis was done for the first time from the list of events reported by the Skopje Seismological observatory, that occurred some six months prior to the main events and one year after, till November 2021.
 
A list of 180 earthquakes registered by the local and regional stations with magnitudes equal or greater than ML1.7 was analyzed in more detail in terms of temporal and spatial distribution around the lake, in a polygon area defined by geological features. No statistically significant clustering of events was noticed in the foreshock period from July 2020. In the aftershock period, the most numerous events lasted about a month after the main events. However, there was another period of increased seismicity during March 2021, followed by a gradual decrease onwards.

The preliminary distribution of epicenters was mainly along the terrain of Radika river and close monitoring continues to establish possible longer-term variations of seismicity. Comparative analysis with various periods will be also considered in order to determine any patterns of seismicity.

How to cite: Chernih-Anastasovska, D., Drogreshka, K., Najdovska, J., Pekevski, L., and Sinadinovski, C.: Pattern analysis of seismicity around Mavrovo lake: a case study for the period July 2020 - November 2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7510, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7510, 2022.

EGU22-7674 | Presentations | NH4.3

Advancing the ETAS Model to Improve Forecasts of Earthquake Sequences and Doublets 

Christian Grimm, Sebastian Hainzl, Martin Käser, Marco Pagani, and Helmut Küchenhoff

Earthquake sequences typically show distinct spatiotemporal patterns, characterized by a power-law decay
of aftershock times and elongated aftershock distributions around the (extended) rupture. A prominent approach to
model seismic clustering in space and time is the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model that differentiates
an independent background seismicity process from a branching tree process for triggered events. The conventional
ETAS approach shows three substantial biases: (1) The assumption of isotropic spatial distributions of aftershock
locations stands in contrast to observations and geophysical models for large mainshocks. (2) The unlimited spatial
distribution allows small events to trigger aftershocks at unrealistically large distances. (3) Short-term incomplete
event records after large mainshock events suggest supposedly smaller aftershock productivity and cluster sizes. The
above biases can lead to an underestimation of the aftershock productivity of strong events, and in consequence to
underpredicted cluster sizes, and to a miss-specification of the spatial aftershock distribution in the case of clearly ex-
tended ruptures. Here, we combine an ETAS-Incomplete model, accounting for short-term aftershock incompleteness,
with an ETAS approach applying anisotropic, spatially restricted distributions of aftershock locations. We evaluate
the benefits of these models by running forecast experiments for the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence and analyzing the oc-
currence frequencies of so-called Earthquake Doublets, i.e., sequences of two or more similarly strong earthquakes
within a small time-space window. The new model provides more realistic sequence forecasts and doublet predictions
and might be of particular interest for (short term) risk assessment units.

How to cite: Grimm, C., Hainzl, S., Käser, M., Pagani, M., and Küchenhoff, H.: Advancing the ETAS Model to Improve Forecasts of Earthquake Sequences and Doublets, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7674, 2022.

EGU22-7735 | Presentations | NH4.3

Sensitivity analysis using the TREMOL code for seismicity forecasting 

Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco and Natalia Zamora

Forecasting spatio-temporal occurrence of earthquakes is not a trivial step for the seismic and tsunami hazard assessments. Estimating earthquake rates depends on information of a nonlinear system that is poorly known including the source dimensions. Thus, these assessments rely on e.g. seismic catalogues, or geophysical and geological data that could portray the statistical and physical behaviour of the seismogenic zones. In particular, earthquakes could rupture along asperities or areas of the seismogenic zone with high stress accumulation.Those areas have different physical properties than the surrounding area, such as a high frictional strength and larger stress drop (e.g. Madariaga 1979, Corbi et al., 2017). In this work, we apply the TREMOL code (Monterrubio-Velasco et al., 2019), based on the Fiber Bundle Model, to validate it as a tool to reproduce the seismicity occurring by the rupture of large, in some cases, single asperities. We have selected four regions where large earthquakes have occurred: M8.8 Maule 2010 (Chile) earthquakes, M9.1 Tohoku 2011 (Japan), M7.6 Nicoya 2012 (Costa Rica) and M8.3 Coquimbo 2015 (Chile). In these tectonic regions, earthquake sequences are generated based on a discrete model of material failure used in TREMOL. One of the most notable results is that the maximum earthquakes of the real sequences are achieved. Also, in most cases, the magnitude - frequency distribution is similar to those of real data. While the outcomes of TREMOL are given in rupture areas, several area-magnitude scaling laws are employed to obtain moment magnitudes. By carrying out a sensitivity analysis of different scaling laws, we show the bias in the synthetic catalogues which is a critical input in seismic hazard assessment. It is shown that the synthetic seismicity using the Ramirez-Gaytan scaling law (Ramirez-Gaytan et al. 2014) is the best to fit the magnitude of the real series in most of the cases. Following the validation of TREMOL, we provide a new seismic scenario generator of future events to assist e.g. the Probabilistic Seismic/Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PSHA/PTHA) complementing the seismic forecast with other well known statistical tools. 

 

References

 

Corbi, F., Funiciello, F., Brizzi, S., Lallemand, S., and Rosenau, M. (2017). Control of asperities size and spacing on seismic behavior of subduction megathrusts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 8227– 8235, doi:10.1002/2017GL074182.



Madariaga, R. (1979). On the relation between seismic moment and stress drop in the presence of stress and strength heterogeneity, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 84, 2243–2250.





Monterrubio-Velasco et al., (2019). A stochastic rupture earthquake code based on the fiber bundle model (TREMOL v0.1): application to Mexican subduction earthquakes. Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1809–1831.

Ramírez-Gaytán, A., Aguirre, J., Jaimes, M. A., and Huérfano, V. (2014). Scaling relationships of source parameters of M w 6.9–8.1 earthquakes in the Cocos–Rivera–North American subduction zone, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104, 840–854.

 

How to cite: Monterrubio-Velasco, M. and Zamora, N.: Sensitivity analysis using the TREMOL code for seismicity forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7735, 2022.

EGU22-9181 | Presentations | NH4.3

Studying the stress field variations in the Vrancea-zone using clustering-based stress inversions 

Lili Czirok, Lukács Kuslits, István Bozsó, and Katalin Gribovszki

The SE-Carpathians indicate significant geodynamic activity, especially in the external part due to the current subduction processes. This part is the so-called Vrancea-zone where the distribution of the seismic events is quite dense considering the relatively small area (around 30*70 km).

The authors have carried out cluster analyses of the focal mechanism solutions and their inversions to support the recent and previously published studies in this region. They have applied different pre-existing clustering methods – e.g. HDBSCAN (hierarchical density-based clustering for applications with noise) and agglomerative hierarchical analysis – considering the geographical coordinates, focal depths and parameters of the focal mechanism solutions of the used seismic events, as well. Moreover, they have attempted to improve a fully-automated algorithm for the clustering of the earthquakes for the estimations. This algorithm has only one optional hyper-parameter which is eligible to detect the outliers from the input dataset. Due to this, it is possible to reduce the running time and subjectivity. In all cases, the calculated stress tensors are in close agreement with the previously published results.

How to cite: Czirok, L., Kuslits, L., Bozsó, I., and Gribovszki, K.: Studying the stress field variations in the Vrancea-zone using clustering-based stress inversions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9181, 2022.

EGU22-10324 | Presentations | NH4.3

An Ensemble Kalman Filter for Estimating Future Slow Slip Events and Earthquakes on 1D, 2D and 3D Synthetic Experiments 

Hamed Ali Diab Montero, Meng Li, Ylona van Dinther, and Femke C Vossepoel

Our ability to forecast future earthquakes is hampered by the very limited information on the fault slip that produce them. In particular the current state of stress, strength, and parameters governing the slip of the faults are highly uncertain. Ensemble data-assimilation methods provide a means to estimate these variables by combining physics-based models and observations while considering their uncertainties. Perfect model experiments with an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), connected with one-dimensional (1D), two-dimensional (2D), and three-dimensional (3D) earthquake cycle models, demonstrate the ability to estimate the state variables of shear stress, slip velocity, and state (θ) of a straight fault governed by rate-and-state friction surrounded by a homogeneous elastic medium. The models represent a direct-shear laboratory setup in one, two and three dimensions, with an array of shear-strain gauges and piezoelectric transducers located at a small distance to the fault. In this research, we compare the recurrence interval and earthquake occurrence of the EnKF across the different models to better understand the challenges associated with a space-time systems with increasing dimensions and increasingly complex earthquake sequences. The assimilation of synthetic shear-stress and slip-rate observations improves in particular the estimates of shear stress and slip rate on the fault, despite the very low accuracy of the observations. We get reasonable estimates when modelling long-duration earthquakes or slow slip events . Interestingly, we also obtain very good estimates when simulating earthquakes with fast slip rates (up to m/s). The large, nonlinear, changes in stress and velocitiy  during the fast transition from the interseismic to the coseismic phase cause the distributions of the state variables to become bi-modal. The EnKF still provides a reasonable estimate of the time of occurrence of the earthquakes in the synthetic experiments, despite the inherent assumption on the Gaussianity of these distributions.

How to cite: Diab Montero, H. A., Li, M., van Dinther, Y., and Vossepoel, F. C.: An Ensemble Kalman Filter for Estimating Future Slow Slip Events and Earthquakes on 1D, 2D and 3D Synthetic Experiments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10324, 2022.

EGU22-10382 | Presentations | NH4.3

Classifying earthquakes and mining activity with deep neural networks 

András Horváth, Máté Timkó, Márta Kiszely, Tamás Bozóki, István Bozsó, and Lukács Kuslits

Earthquake detection and phase picking are central problems of seismic activity analysis. Traditional approaches [1] and machine learning methods [2] are applied in this domain, typically performing well on commonly investigated standard datasets reaching above 99% accuracy in seismic activity detection.

 

Unfortunately, most databases in the literature contain only earthquake data as detectable activities and spurious activities such as mining are not included in these datasets. We have investigated a recently published deep neural network-based method [3] and found that these detectors are fooled by mining activity.

 

To solve this problem, we have created a complex dataset that contains 1200 independently recorded mining and earthquake activities from Central Europe. Our dataset poses a more complex problem than commonly investigated datasets such as the STanford EArthquake Dataset and can be viewed as an extension of that.

 

We have trained a convolutional neural network containing five convolutional and three fully-connected layers to classify these signals on this dataset and reached a 94% classification accuracy, which demonstrates that the categorization of mining activity and earthquakes is possible with modern machine learning approaches.



[1] Galiana-Merino, J. J., Rosa-Herranz, J. L., & Parolai, S. (2008). Seismic P Phase Picking Using a Kurtosis-Based Criterion in the Stationary Wavelet Domain. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 46(11), 3815-3826.

 

[2] Zhu, W., & Beroza, G. C. (2019). PhaseNet: a deep-neural-network-based seismic arrival-time picking method. Geophysical Journal International, 216(1), 261-273.

 

[3] Mousavi, S. M., Ellsworth, W. L., Zhu, W., Chuang, L. Y., & Beroza, G. C. (2020). Earthquake transformer—an attentive deep-learning model for simultaneous earthquake detection and phase picking. Nature communications, 11(1), 1-12.

How to cite: Horváth, A., Timkó, M., Kiszely, M., Bozóki, T., Bozsó, I., and Kuslits, L.: Classifying earthquakes and mining activity with deep neural networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10382, 2022.

EGU22-10503 | Presentations | NH4.3

Intraplate seismicity controlled by lithospheric-mantle strength: the Ireland and Britain case study 

Sergei Lebedev, Pierre Arroucau, James Grannell, and Raffaele Bonadio

Stable continental areas—those largely unaffected by currently active plate-boundary processes—undergo little deformation and feature low seismicity rates. Notable exceptions, such as the well-known large earthquakes in the central United States or the Fennoscandian Craton, are rare but highlight the importance of understanding the seismicity in low-strain regions. One long-standing question, debated for over a century, relates to the seismicity of Ireland. Why is it much lower than that in the neighbouring Britain, even though they were assembled in the same Caledonian orogeny, share many of the ancient tectonic boundaries, and are subjected to similar tectonic stresses? Our new catalogue of Ireland’s seismicity, produced using the greatly improved seismic station coverage of the island over the last decade, shows many more micro-earthquakes than known previously but confirms the much lower seismicity rates in Ireland compared to Britain.

Comparing the distribution of seismicity with high-resolution, surface-wave tomography (performed using the abundant new data) we observe that areas with thicker, colder lithosphere feature lower seismicity than those with thinner lithosphere. This must be because the thicker and colder lithosphere is mechanically stronger and less likely to deform, compared to the thinner and weaker lithosphere under the same tectonic stress. According to the new tomography, Ireland has thicker lithosphere than most of Britain, which can explain its lower seismicity rates. The thinnest lithosphere in Ireland is found in the north of the island, in Co Donegal, and this is where most of Ireland’s micro-seismicity occurs. A similar relationship between the lithospheric thickness and seismicity rates is observed in Britain, with the London Platform in the southeast of the island showing thick lithosphere and low seismicity.

Together, lithospheric tomography and seismicity maps thus offer a solution to a seismo-tectonic puzzle first formulated in the 19-th century. Evidence of the lithospheric mantle controls on earthquake occurrence can be seen elsewhere around the world as well. The improving accuracy of the tomographic imaging of the lithosphere presents a useful new line of evidence on the mechanisms that control the regional distributions of intraplate earthquakes.

How to cite: Lebedev, S., Arroucau, P., Grannell, J., and Bonadio, R.: Intraplate seismicity controlled by lithospheric-mantle strength: the Ireland and Britain case study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10503, 2022.

EGU22-10718 | Presentations | NH4.3

Relaxing ETAS’s Assumptions to Better Capture the Real Behavior of Seismicity 

Leila Mizrahi, Shyam Nandan, William Savran, Stefan Wiemer, and Yehuda Ben-Zion

When developing next-generation earthquake forecasting models, the key is to more carefully account for the real world (which has fault systems with different properties, site-specific properties, swarm-like episodes of temporally elevated seismicity, etc.), without constructing overly complicated models that are hard to comprehend and even harder to use. Finding the sweet spot between simplicity and accuracy is what constitutes the art of modelling. Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models, despite being introduced over three decades ago, are still the undisputed reference for earthquake forecasting methods – be it as a benchmark when testing novel forecasting techniques, or as the model of choice for operational earthquake forecasting around the world. ETAS models accurately describe the average behavior of aftershock triggering as a self-exciting point process based on few simple empirical principles, including the Omori-Utsu and Gutenberg-Richter laws.

With this in mind, we are proposing a new model which naturally captures the diversity of conditions under which earthquakes take place. Within the ETAS statistical framework, we relax the assumptions of parametrically defined aftershock productivity and background earthquake rates. Instead, both productivity and background rates are calibrated with data such that their variability is optimally represented by the model. This allows for an impartial view on the behavior of background and triggered seismicity in different regions, different time periods, or different sequences. We perform pseudo-prospective forecasting experiments for Southern California to evaluate models based on their accuracy at forecasting the next event. These experiments reveal when, where, and under which conditions our proposed model yields better forecasts than the standard ETAS null model. 

How to cite: Mizrahi, L., Nandan, S., Savran, W., Wiemer, S., and Ben-Zion, Y.: Relaxing ETAS’s Assumptions to Better Capture the Real Behavior of Seismicity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10718, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10718, 2022.

EGU22-11098 | Presentations | NH4.3

P- and S-wave arrival picking and epicentral distance estimation of earthquakes using convolutional neural networks 

Yonggyu Choi, Sungmyung Bae, Youngseok Song, Soon Jee Seol, and Joongmoo Byun

In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely applied in seismological data processing such as seismic event detection, phase picking, location, magnitude estimation, and further data analysis for determining source mechanisms. Especially in earthquake location, deep learning methods are used to reduce location errors compared to conventional algorithms.

In this study, we present a deep learning based epicentral distance estimation with two separate models using seismic data from two stations as input data. The first model is the P- and S-wave arrival time picking model and the second is the epicentral distance estimation model. Since the traditional epicentral distance estimation methods uses the difference in arrival times between P- and S-waves, the P- and S-wave arrival times were first predicted from three-component seismic data so that this information could be directly used as the next input data. This picking information is used as input data along with the station location in the epicentral distance estimation model to output the final epicentral distance. Since this method uses data from two stations, it has higher accuracy than epicentral distance estimation using data from a single station.

The P- and S-wave arrival time picking model was modified by referring to the ResUNet (Diakogiannis et al., 2020) structure to improve performance based on the seismic detection and phase picking model from the three-component acceleration data developed by Mousavi et al. (2020). This modified model performs feature extraction for P- and S-phase picking and includes a residual block and skip connection. The model for estimating the distance from the epicenter was constructed using a basic artificial neural network (ANN) architecture. As input data, a total of eight features were used by adding six combinations of the difference in arrival times of P-wave and S-wave in each component of the two stations and two values of the latitude and longitude difference between two stations. The ANN architecture consists of four hidden layers and the epicentral distances of the two stations are final output.

The STEAD data were used as training data and test data. The STEAD is a seismogram dataset recorded from about 450,000 global earthquakes, and among them, data with magnitudes greater than 2.5 and epicentral distances less than 400 km were selected and used. As a result of applying the trained model to the test data, the mean absolute error of the predicted epicentral distance was 6.5 km, which showed improved performance compared to the previous results. Also, since this method uses six time-differences as input data, it can provide more robust results even in the presence of random noise at the picked times.

How to cite: Choi, Y., Bae, S., Song, Y., Seol, S. J., and Byun, J.: P- and S-wave arrival picking and epicentral distance estimation of earthquakes using convolutional neural networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11098, 2022.

EGU22-11461 | Presentations | NH4.3

Seismogenic nodes in the Bulgarian territory, defined by pattern recognition 

Lyuba Dimova, Alexander Gorshkov, Olga Novikova, Sonya Dimitrova, and Reneta Raykova

Seismogenic nodes, able to locate earthquakes with magnitudes M equal or higher than 6 (M6+), are identified for the territory of Bulgaria and adjacent areas. Definition of nodes is based on morphostructural zonation. Pattern recognition algorithm Cora-3 is applied to identify the seismogenic nodes, characterized by specific geological, geophysical and morphological data. The pattern recognition algorithm is trained on information for 30 seismic events M6+ for the period 29 B.C. – 2020, selected from historical and instrumental Bulgarian earthquake catalogues. These events are associated with 16 "training" nodes. Totally we have recognized 56 seismogenic nodes, most of them in southwestern Bulgaria.

The analysis of the identified seismic nodes shows that in addition to the initial 16 "training" nodes, about 20 ones may be associated with the already observed seismicity. Some of these nodes may be related with documented seismicity, which is not taken into account to select the “training” nodes. Other seimogenic nodes are close to (but do not include) some historical earthquakes, whose location or magnitude is not precise enough.

There has not been registered seismic activity M6+ in the vicinity of other 20 seismogenic nodes. To consider a certain inaccuracy in the determination of the earthquake magnitudes, in the analysis of these seismogenic nodes we take into account earthquakes with M higher than 5.8. In such a way the number of “inactive” until now seismogenic nodes decrease further. Several nodes can be related to seismic activity in the past, established by geological research. But a significant part of seismic nodes remains, which cannot be associated with any seismic manifestations. This is a sign of possible future earthquakes M6+ near these nodes.

It should be noted that 3 of the earthquakes M6+ in the twentieth century were not close to any seismogenic node. This may be due to several reasons among which are: hidden tectonic structures, gaps in the morphostructural zonation or an inaccurate magnitude of the earthquake’s catalogue data.

Acknowledgements. This study is partly funded by Russian Foundation of Basic Research (RFBR) according to the research projects 20-55-18008 and by Bulgarian National Science Fund, research project KP-06-Russia-29/16.12.2020.

How to cite: Dimova, L., Gorshkov, A., Novikova, O., Dimitrova, S., and Raykova, R.: Seismogenic nodes in the Bulgarian territory, defined by pattern recognition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11461, 2022.

EGU22-11532 | Presentations | NH4.3

Evaluating injection strategies for EGS from the temporal evolution of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value. 

Vanille Ritz, Antonio P. Rinaldi, and Stefan Wiemer

Induced seismicity is a hot topic within geo-applications, however the physical mechanisms driving the induced ruptures is yet to be fully understood. The injection of fluid in the subsurface in particular has been shown to cause changes in the stress field leading to the induction of eqarthquakes. Recent events in Switzerland (Basel, Sankt-Gallen) and Korea (Pohang) have shown that such injection operations can have dramatic consequences. The hazard associated with these earthquakes thus needs to be managed to prevent infrastructure damages and protect both the population and viability of the project.

The Gutenberg-Richter b-value has been used as a proxy for the state of stress in the subsurface. The temporal evolution of the b-value provides statistical tools to estimate the seismic hazard posed by an earthquake sequence. Thus, monitoring and forecasting changes in the b-value could be used as a proxy in a near-real-time mitigation context (Adaptive Traffic Light System). Several studies have looked at the evolution of the b-value both in time and space, for example in Basel, where the observed b-value dropped before shut-in and further away from the injection well.

We present a numerical approach coupling a fluid flow simulator with a geomechanical-stochastic formulation (TOUGH2-Seed) to simulate injection-induced seismicity sequences. We model a Hot Dry Rock-type setting, and we investigate the variation of b-value during injection-induced seismic sequences with different injection scenarios and levels of complexity as to the geological features.

How to cite: Ritz, V., Rinaldi, A. P., and Wiemer, S.: Evaluating injection strategies for EGS from the temporal evolution of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11532, 2022.

EGU22-11800 | Presentations | NH4.3

Spatial distribution of the b-value in Southern California based on Gauss process inference with a geologically defined prior 

Sebastian von Specht, Matthias Holschneider, Khadidja Ferrat, Gert Zöller, Christian Molkenthin, and Sebastian Hainzl

As a population parameter, reliable estimation of the b-value is intrinsically complicated, particularly when spatial variability is considered. We approach this issue by treating the spatial b-value distribution as a non-stationary Gauss process for the underlying earthquake-realizing Poisson process. For Gauss process inference the covariance—which describes here the spatial correlation of the b-value—must be specified a priori. We base the covariance on the local fault structure, i.e. the covariance is anisotropic: elongated along the dominant fault strike and shortened when normal to the fault trace. This adaptive feature captures the geological structure better than an isotropic covariance or similarly defined and commonly used running-window estimates of the b-value.We demonstrate the Bayesian inference of the Gauss process b-value estimation for southern California based on the SCEDC earthquake catalog and with the covariance calibrated with the USGS fault model.Our model provides a continuous b-value estimate which reflects the local fault structure to a very high degree. Therefore, we are able to associate the b-value with the local seismicity distribution and can link it to the major Californian faults and geothermal areas. This technique, in its general formulation, can be applied to other non-stationary seismicity parameters, e.g. Omori’s law.

How to cite: von Specht, S., Holschneider, M., Ferrat, K., Zöller, G., Molkenthin, C., and Hainzl, S.: Spatial distribution of the b-value in Southern California based on Gauss process inference with a geologically defined prior, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11800, 2022.

EGU22-11803 | Presentations | NH4.3

Everything you always wanted to know about b-value* (*but were afraid to ask) 

Matteo Taroni, Jacopo Selva, Warner Marzocchi, and Jiancang Zhuang

The b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law is one of the most widely studied parameters regarding the distribution of earthquakes’ magnitude. The estimation of such a parameter and its uncertainty is critical, and it may become complex in the case of seismic catalogs with a non-uniform magnitude of completeness, or when different shapes of the Gutenberg-Richter relation (e.g. the tapered one) are adopted. Here we review recent results on the b-value estimation, also in the case of catalogs with multiple completeness levels, including the application of the weighted likelihood methodology, a method particularly suitable for spatial b-value mapping and for studying its temporal variations. These new techniques are applied to both global and regional seismic catalogs, in order to unveil the peculiarities of the b-value.

How to cite: Taroni, M., Selva, J., Marzocchi, W., and Zhuang, J.: Everything you always wanted to know about b-value* (*but were afraid to ask), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11803, 2022.

I summarize a broad suite of laboratory data sets showing that stick-slip failure events –lab earthquakes– are commonly preceded by both measurable changes in fault zone properties and acoustic emission (AE) events that foretell catastrophic failure.  These works show that both types of data can be used to predict labquakes with machine learning (ML) methods and deep learning (DL) approaches.  The first works used continuous measurements of AE to predict the timing of labquakes and the fault zone shear stress. Subsequent studies showed that catalogs of AE events could also predict labquakes and that ML approaches could also predict stress drop, peak fault slip velocity and the duration of failure. Recently, DL has been used to predict and autoregressively forecast labquakes and fault zone shear stress. Consistent with previous works, we see that seismic b-value begins to decrease as faults unlock and start to creep.  This provides a sensible connection between the ML-based predictions, fault zone elastic properties, and the physics of failure.  In the lab, AE events represent a form of foreshock and, not surprisingly, the rate of foreshock activity correlates with fault slip rate and its acceleration toward failure.  Our work shows precursory changes in wave speed prior to labquakes, consistent with many well known past studies, but the early studies did not provide a method to predict impending failure.  ML and DL predicts with fidelity the time of impending failure and other aspects of it. This suggests the possibility of physics-based models for prediction. We are working to connect ML prediction of labquakes with the evolution of fault zone elastic properties, frictional contact mechanics and constitutive laws.  A central goal is to learn from lab earthquake prediction to improve forecasts of earthquake precursors and tectonic faulting.

How to cite: Marone, C.: Machine Learning for Understanding Lab Earthquake Prediction and Precursors, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12022, 2022.

SM9 – Short Courses in seismology

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