Presentation type:
SM – Seismology

EGU26-4764 | Orals | MAL15-SM | Beno Gutenberg Medal Lecture

Rethinking Earthquakes 

Satoshi Ide

In Gutenberg’s era, earthquakes were understood primarily as phenomena involving the release and propagation of seismic wave energy. Since the 1960s, seismic wave radiation has been explained by fault slip, and various characteristics of earthquakes have been successfully described by slip processes governed by friction laws on fault surfaces. As a result, the view that “earthquakes are fault slip” became widely accepted, and earthquake size is now usually represented not by radiated seismic energy but by seismic moment, a measure of fault slip. However, while earthquakes certainly involve fault slip, it is incorrect to assume that all fault slip represents an earthquake.

The discovery and increasing understanding of slow earthquakes in recent decades have made it necessary to reconsider a fundamental question: What exactly is an earthquake? What distinguishes slow earthquakes from regular earthquakes? Under what conditions does this distinction arise? Do regular earthquakes begin in a universal manner? Addressing such questions leads to a view of earthquakes as a coupled process of rock fracture and wave radiation that cascades through hierarchical heterogeneities spanning a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. I aim to discuss approaches for understanding—and ultimately forecasting—such complex, multiscale phenomena.

How to cite: Ide, S.: Rethinking Earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4764, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4764, 2026.

Earthquake source processes are described based on friction laws on faults, bulk constitutive behavior of the surrounding medium, and the stress state of an intricate fault network, including off-fault damage. The combination of these components forms a dynamic earthquake rupture model that accounts for the seismological, geodetic, and geological observations, as well as enables estimation of the earthquake energy budget. While such models help clarify key factors characterizing earthquake source processes, trade-offs among these factors often prevent identifying the dominant physical mechanism. For example, enhanced near-field high-frequency radiation can be attributed to fault roughness, structural heterogeneity, or coseismic off-fault damage (Okubo et al., 2019), each of which can produce similar observational signatures.

To mitigate the modeling uncertainties, information available from laboratory experiments can be utilized, such as fault geometry, bulk elastic properties, stress state, and frictional conditions. Here, I demonstrate this concept through a laboratory study aimed at controlling the size and location of earthquake source patches on a laboratory fault (Okubo et al., in revision). This approach provides a predetermined source configuration that can be incorporated into a dynamic rupture model. Circular gouge patches as earthquake sources were placed on a 4-meter-long laboratory fault in a large-scale biaxial apparatus, generating microearthquakes during the evolution of preslip or afterslip on the entire fault in stick-slip experiments. Acoustic emission waveforms carefully corrected for instrumental response and attenuation suggest that these earthquake clusters exhibit non-self-similar scaling. Using the controlled source geometry and the observed source parameters, we developed a dynamic rupture model that is quantitatively consistent with laboratory observations. Although this model is not a unique solution for explaining the observed non-self-similar scaling, given the limited information available to fully resolve the rupture process even under laboratory conditions, it complements previously proposed models for non-self-similar earthquakes and provides a useful basis for interpreting natural earthquakes.

Close integration of experiments and modeling is key to updating previous findings by addressing limitations in existing modeling frameworks. Large-scale experiments allow for spatially dense measurement arrays relative to the characteristic length scales of dynamic ruptures. Models quantitatively constrained by these high-quality measurements help clarify the details in source processes and play an important role in determining which observables, and at what resolution, are required to effectively monitor faulting activity.

How to cite: Okubo, K.: Advancing Knowledge of Earthquake Source Processes Through Dynamic Rupture Modeling with Natural and Laboratory Observables, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14630, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14630, 2026.

EGU26-887 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS24

High-resolution relocation of seismic swarms using offshore DAS and onshore seismic data in north-central Chile 

Teresa Peralta, María Constaza Flores, Diane Rivet, Bertrand Potin, Marie Baillet, and Sergio Ruiz

North-central Chile is a highly seismically active region. While the last megathrust earthquake occurred in 1730, the area has also experienced large events in recent decades, such as the 2015 Illapel earthquake (Mw 8.3), as well as numerous seismic sequences and persistent swarms. Although these phenomena are widespread along the Chilean subduction margin, their dynamics and potential connection to major earthquakes remain poorly understood. 

Within this framework, the ABYSS project has deployed Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) interrogators along offshore telecommunication fiber-optic cables, complemented by temporary and permanent onshore seismic stations. This configuration offers a unique opportunity to monitor and investigate the offshore microseismicity in a region characterized by sparse permanent instrumentation and the absence of previous offshore sensors.

In this study, we develop a workflow to precisely relocate the seismicity recorded by the ABYSS network. We combine the probabilistic, non-linear hypocentral inversion using NonLinLoc with double-difference relocation using HypoDD, incorporating a 3D P- and S-wave velocity model and differential times derived from waveform cross-correlation on both DAS and onshore stations. Through this integrated approach, we identify and analyze clusters of seismicity associated with swarm activity and short-term seismic sequences. In particular, we apply the workflow to episodes such as the Tongoy swarm initiated on 30 December 2024, whose largest event reached Ml 5.3, and the offshore Ovalle sequence that occurred between October and November 2025.

Our goal is to precisely characterize these sequences by improving constraints on the geometry and spatio-temporal evolution, gaining insights into the processes driving this activity, and shedding light on how present-day swarm dynamics may relate to the occurrence of larger earthquakes along the Chilean subduction margin.

How to cite: Peralta, T., Flores, M. C., Rivet, D., Potin, B., Baillet, M., and Ruiz, S.: High-resolution relocation of seismic swarms using offshore DAS and onshore seismic data in north-central Chile, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-887, 2026.

EGU26-6568 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS24

Scaling of Stress Drop with Rate-and-State Frictional Parameters in Spring-Block Models 

Lin Chai and Feng Hu

Numerical simulations of earthquake cycles provide essential insights into fault mechanics and the physical interpretation of frictional parameters. Here, we utilize a spring-block system governed by rate-and-state friction to systematically compare earthquake cycle behaviors under quasi-dynamic and fully dynamic conditions. Our simulations demonstrate that for both approaches, the static stress drop, dynamic stress drop, and peak stress scale linearly with the logarithm of the loading rate [ln(Vpl/V0)]; however, the scaling coefficients are distinct and are modulated by both frictional parameters and the system stiffness. Specifically, we observe stress overshoot during the coseismic phase in dynamic models, contrasting with the undershoot observed in quasi-dynamic simulations. Additionally, parameter sweeps reveal that stress drops decrease as the stiffness ratio kc/k increases. This study highlights the importance of the inertial term effect in interpreting earthquake cycle behaviors.

How to cite: Chai, L. and Hu, F.: Scaling of Stress Drop with Rate-and-State Frictional Parameters in Spring-Block Models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6568, 2026.

EGU26-10972 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS24

Crustal Seismic anisotropy in Sikkim Himalaya: Implications for deformation 

Gaurav Kumar, Arun Singh, Chandrani Singh, Dipankar Saikia, and M Ravi Kumar

Collision and relentless underthrusting of India beneath Eurasia resulted in large-scale deformation of the Indian lithosphere. Anisotropic parameters serve as a good proxies to decipher deformation in such complex orogenic collision zones. In this study, we present anisotropy characteristics of the crust beneath Sikkim Himalaya using harmonic decomposition of P-to-S converted phases identified in P-wave receiver functions (P-RFs). Analysis of azimuthal variation of these phases enabled parameterizing the crustal anisotropic properties, with depth. Initially, 11,087 high quality P-RFs were computed using waveforms of teleseismic earthquakes having magnitude  ≥ 5.5 and signal to noise ratio  ≥ 2.5 within an epicentral distance range of 30° - 100°, recorded at a network of 38 seismic stations deployed in Sikkim Himalaya and the adjoining foreland basin. Analysis of the first three harmonic degrees (i.e. k= 0, 1 and 2) reveals that the upper crustal anisotropy is oriented WSW-ENE to E-W, coinciding well with the trends of crustal microcracks and fractures. The mid to lower crustal anisotropy aligns predominantly with the dipping decollement layer along which the Indian plate is underthrusting Tibet. An orthogonal reorientation is observed within the extent of the Dhubri-Chungthang Fault Zone authenticating its role in segmenting the orogen. The lower crustal anisotropy is highly perturbed signifying a highly heterogeneous nature of the Moho.  Existence of multiple layers of anisotropy possessing distinct geometries varying with depth could be an indication of a highly complex deformational regime resulting from active crustal shortening.

How to cite: Kumar, G., Singh, A., Singh, C., Saikia, D., and Kumar, M. R.: Crustal Seismic anisotropy in Sikkim Himalaya: Implications for deformation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10972, 2026.

Regular monitoring of small to moderate sources of continuous earthquake events in the complex tectonics of Himalayan region helps in clearly defining the ongoing seismotectonic process. The study of moment tensor inversion to decipher the fault planes responsible for current seismic activity in the Kishtwar region of Northwest part of Himalaya has been undertaken by establishing a six-station network in 2022 and among them 15 events of shallow origin with magnitude ranging from ML ~ 3.0 to 4.0 occurred in the local region of seismic network are used for the moment tensor inversion. A few number of studies didn’t able to clearly demarcate the actual scenario of seismotectonics in the northwest part of Himalaya due to its difficult terrain and complex geology. This area has been studied for fault plane solution by a software package ISOLA based on MATLAB programming environment. The source inversion is performed via iterative deconvolution method and synthetic seismogram is generated through green’s function computation via discrete wavenumber method using the regional crustal velocity model. However, the inversion is performed at several trial source position and at various frequency bands based on the epicenter distance and the magnitude of earthquake to find the best solution resulting from the maximum correlation between the recorded and synthetically generated waveforms. A 2D space-time grid search is performed for determining the optimal time and positon of earthquake generation. Perhaps calculating source parameters such as moment magnitude, centroid depth and fault parameters equally with describing uncertainty quantities such as variance reduction factor and condition number will deliver the reliability and stability to the solution. A strong follow-up uncertainty quantification can justify the best estimated fault plane solution. Quality of earthquake event can be calculated through their DC and CLVD percentage and maximum & minimum compression stress direction. Focal mechanism solution of these events following thrust with strike-slip focal mechanism and represents the compressional regime in north-northeastern direction. The centroid depth obtained by moment tensor inversion of all events falls within the depth zone of Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) suggesting seismicity is concentrated along the major detachment in the region.

How to cite: Tiwari, S. and Gupta, S. C.: Moment tensor analysis and uncertainty quantification of local earthquake events: tectonic implication in the northwestern Himalayan region, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13656, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13656, 2026.

With the popularization of dense seismic array observations, tomographic imaging of subsurface velocity structures using surface wave dispersion data extracted via subarray partitioning has emerged as a new trend. The primary advantages of subarray-based dispersion data extraction lie in its reduced susceptibility to the inhomogeneous distribution of noise sources, which yields more stable and reliable dispersion measurements. Additionally, this approach enhances the energy of higher-order modes, thereby providing tighter constraints on subsurface velocity structures. Compared with the higher-order modes of Rayleigh waves, both the fundamental and higher-order modes of Love waves exhibit simpler dispersion characteristics with fewer mode crossings and overlaps, making them more favorable for joint inversion to constrain subsurface SH-wave velocity structures.

Traditional subarray surface wave imaging methods (e.g., SSWI) typically perform 1D velocity structure inversion at individual locations first, followed by stitching all 1D models to generate pseudo-2D or 3D velocity models. Despite its simplicity and computational efficiency, this direct stitching strategy is highly vulnerable to uneven station distributions, and the resultant velocity models may suffer from artificial velocity jumps. To address these limitations, Luo & Yao (2025) proposed a direct subarray surface wave imaging method (SSWDI), which eliminates the stitching step inherent in traditional methods and incorporates spatial smoothness constraints on velocity structures, thus enabling more robust inversion of subarray-derived dispersion data for subsurface imaging. However, the SSWDI method originally focused exclusively on the fundamental mode of Rayleigh waves. In this study, we further extend the SSWDI framework to accommodate both fundamental and higher-order modes of Love waves, and validate the improved method using both numerical synthetic data and field observational data.

Reference

Luo, S., and H. Yao (2025), Direct Tomography of S-wave Structure Using Subarray Surface Wave Dispersion Data: Methodology and Validation, Geophysics, 1–60, doi:10.1190/geo-2024-0515.

How to cite: Luo, S.: 3D SH-wave Velocity Tomography via Direct Inversion of Multimode Love Wave Dispersion Curves from Seismic Subarrays, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16937, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16937, 2026.

EGU26-20741 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS24

A seismogenic modelling approach for rift-basin fault systems in slow-deforming regions: application to the western margin of the Valencia Trough 

Marc Ollé-López, Julián García-Mayordomo, Oona Scotti, and Eulàlia Masana

Seismic hazard assessment is crucial for the design of critical facilities, whose damage could lead to severe consequences. The design of such facilities typically requires the definition of seismic actions associated with recurrence periods on the order of 5,000-10,000 years. Earthquakes with such low frequencies are well documented in highly deforming regions, where paleoseismic records commonly encompass several seismic cycles of active faults. In contrast, in slow-deforming regions or areas of low seismicity, the scarcity of seismic data hinders the definition of seismogenic zones. In this context, geological studies of active seismogenic faults are essential, as they allow the characterisation of seismic behaviour over time spans far exceeding those covered by instrumental or historical records. These data can contribute to constraining fault’s seismic cycles and estimating earthquake magnitude–frequency distributions at the fault scale.

Despite their importance, the incorporation of faults into seismic hazard models remains challenging, particularly in low strain regions such as the western margin of the Valencia Trough. This region of the NE of Iberia (from the Vallès-Penedès Graben to the Valencia Depression) corresponds to a passive margin characterised by a basin-and-range structure, bounded by multiple NNE–SSW-oriented normal faults formed during the Neogene rifting episode. Those faults are usually associated with mountain fronts, although our recent studies have found some new faults crosscutting Pleistocene alluvial fans. These newly discovered faults are being studied by means of geomorphology, geophysics, paleoseismology and geochronology in order to estimate their seismic parameters. Several challenges arise when analysing these faults, including fault identification, incomplete geological records, and the need for complex dating techniques.

Moreover, in regions characterised by fault systems, fault interactions may play a significant role. In regions such as the studied area, these interactions may result in long quiescent periods followed by phases of increased activity or even cascading events. Under such conditions, distinguishing between quiescent and active phases is especially difficult, as recurrence intervals are expected to span several thousands of years in both cases.

In this work, we explore existing methodologies for the computation of seismic hazard incorporating geological data from faults and fault systems in slow-deforming regions, using the western margin of the Valencia Trough as a case study. To this end, a detailed geometric characterization of the fault system is carried out to establish the geometric relationships among faults. Recent morphotectonic analyses and newly acquired geological data are then used to constrain the seismic parameters of the studied faults and to estimate their earthquake frequency distributions. Finally, several alternative seismic source models are proposed, forming the basis for the construction of a logic tree for subsequent seismic hazard calculations. These
models, although in progress, provide a framework for improving seismic hazard assessments in slow-deforming regions, contributing to safer design of critical infrastructure.

How to cite: Ollé-López, M., García-Mayordomo, J., Scotti, O., and Masana, E.: A seismogenic modelling approach for rift-basin fault systems in slow-deforming regions: application to the western margin of the Valencia Trough, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20741, 2026.

EGU26-21099 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS24

Double-Couple and Full Moment Tensor Solutions of the 2015 Nepal Aftershocks 

Pankaj Lahon, Vipul Silwal, and Rinku Mahanta

The 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake was followed by numerous aftershocks that provided important information on active faulting in central Nepal. Accurate moment tensor estimations are essential for determining the source parameters of these seismic events. In this study, we determine double-couple and full moment tensor solutions for selected aftershocks of the 2015 Nepal earthquake sequence using a regional 1D velocity model.

The waveform data recorded by the temporary broadband network (NAMASTE) are used to analyse 51 aftershocks with M > 3.5. A library of Green’s functions is computed using the frequency–wavenumber method based on a 1D velocity model of the Nepal region. Synthetic waveforms derived from the Green’s functions are used to invert the waveform data for moment tensor estimation. Both body waves and surface waves are used in the inversion, and they contribute separately to the moment tensor solutions. The analysis focuses on regional waveforms in relatively higher frequency ranges.

Both double-couple–constrained and full moment tensor inversions are performed, and the resulting source parameters are examined in terms of waveform fit, centroid depth, and fault-plane orientation. This work presents a set of moment tensor solutions for the 2015 Nepal aftershocks using a 1D regional velocity model and provides a reference for future studies using more complex velocity structures.

How to cite: Lahon, P., Silwal, V., and Mahanta, R.: Double-Couple and Full Moment Tensor Solutions of the 2015 Nepal Aftershocks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21099, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21099, 2026.

EGU26-21425 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS24

Evaluating SASW/CSWS-Derived Proxies for Seismic Site Amplification 

Virendra Singh and Dilip Kumar Baidya

The alternative proxy parameters for seismic site amplification beyond the conventional time-averaged shear wave velocity of the upper 30 m (VS,30) are investigated in this study with a focus on quantities that can be derived or constrained from surface wave-based measurements such as Spectral Analysis of Surface Waves (SASW) and Continuous Surface Wave System (CSWS) testing. Surface wave methods provide dispersion curves that are inverted to obtain near-surface shear wave velocity profiles, which are then used to construct synthetic one-dimensional layered models for ground response analysis. For each profile, two different candidate site parameters are evaluated, including VS,30 and the impedance ratio between the surface layer and the underlying half-space. These parameters are chosen to reflect what can realistically be inferred from SASW/CSWS-derived velocity profiles, particularly the shallow stiffness and impedance contrasts that strongly influence amplification. Correlation analyses are carried out to quantify how well each parameter explains the variability in amplification across the synthetic suite. The results are used to assess whether the impedance ratio provides stronger or more consistent correlation with amplification than VS,30, thereby offering guidance on how surface wave–based site characterization can be better integrated into proxy-based amplification and site classification schemes in seismic design practice.

How to cite: Singh, V. and Baidya, D. K.: Evaluating SASW/CSWS-Derived Proxies for Seismic Site Amplification, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21425, 2026.

EGU26-22669 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS24

An integrated geodynamic analysis of seismic sources in the Eastern Rif: Insights from geological, seismological, gravimetric, and aeromagnetic data 

Hafid Iken, Abderrahime Nouayti, Nordine Nouayti, and Driss Khattach

The Rif’s belt is characterized by low to moderate seismic activity resulting from the continental collision between the African and Eurasian plates. This seismic activity, which involves devastation and human losses, requires an in-depth study of its origins and mechanisms. This study aims to identify the geological structures responsible for seismic activity in the eastern Rif by adopting an integrated methodological approach. The methodology relies on the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS) to process and analyze multiple geological, seismological, and geophysical datasets. Various filters were applied to magnetic and gravimetric data (vertical derivatives) to characterize the subsurface. The analysis of earthquake focal mechanisms helped identify active faults. The results show that the seismicity, with a NW-SE orientation, is localized within a fragile depression south of the city of Selouane. The final geological model highlights a system of faults and strike-slips oriented NE-SW and NW-SE. A significant spatial correlation is observed between epicenters and Messinian-aged NW-SE strike-slips, suggesting their reactivation. The analysis indicates that a system of dextral strike-slips is likely the source of this seismic activity. The proposed geodynamic model represents a major advancement in understanding local seismic activities and serves as an essential reference for future studies. These results significantly contribute to the assessment and management of seismic risks, thereby enhancing the safety and resilience of populations in this high-risk area.

KEYWORDS: Geodynamic model; Seismotectonic; Focal mechanism; Magnetic; Gravimetric; ·
Eastern Rif. 

How to cite: Iken, H., Nouayti, A., Nouayti, N., and Khattach, D.: An integrated geodynamic analysis of seismic sources in the Eastern Rif: Insights from geological, seismological, gravimetric, and aeromagnetic data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22669, 2026.

EGU26-938 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS25

Insights into the copper accumulation potential of magmas along the Sunda-Banda arc, Indonesia from apatite and its mineral hosts 

Sri Budhi Utami, Teresa Ubide, Gideon Rosenbaum, Weiran Li, Esti Handini, Sarah Wood, Heather Handley, and Louise Goode

Current demand for critical metals including Cu is outstripping current supply and will further escalate in the future. A significant source of Cu comes from porphyry deposits, which contribute to >60% of global Cu ore production. Many of these porphyry Cu deposits are found along convergent margins such as the Andes and the Sunda-Banda arc in Indonesia and these same arcs also host highly active volcanoes. Understanding the magmatic and geodynamic factors that contribute towards priming magmas for Cu fertility as opposed to volcanic eruptions can aid in identification of prospective targets for exploration.

Here we present analyses of apatite populations from known porphyry Cu deposits and active volcanoes along the Sunda-Banda arc in Indonesia. To gain a complete overview of the mineral associations and their information, we incorporate textural information to analyze both apatite inclusions and their mineral hosts, such as pyroxenes and amphiboles, as well as groundmass apatite. These mineral compositions will serve as input for thermodynamic models to constrain the volatile chemistry and budget, as well as the volatile saturation depths. The information gathered will be combined to test our working hypotheses that the magmas with high Cu fertility store at distinct depths, have geochemical signatures that suggest deep fractionation of garnet and amphibole, and are associated with anomalous geodynamic features such as slab tears.

Our ongoing work advances current understanding on magma storage and transfer along and across fertile magmatic arcs, aiming to better understand magmatic pre-conditioning for porphyry copper deposit formation to complement exploration efforts to find copper deposits in the geological records.

How to cite: Utami, S. B., Ubide, T., Rosenbaum, G., Li, W., Handini, E., Wood, S., Handley, H., and Goode, L.: Insights into the copper accumulation potential of magmas along the Sunda-Banda arc, Indonesia from apatite and its mineral hosts, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-938, 2026.

EGU26-1377 | Posters virtual | VPS25

Impact of segmentation pattern of the Pan-African trending strike-slip basement fault on the spatial distribution of hydrocarbon traps in SW Iran 

Bahman Soleimany, Zahra Tajmir Riahi, Gholam Reza Payrovian, and Susan Sepahvand

Abstract:

Strike-slip basement faults and their related segments are crucial for oil and gas exploration. These faults are considered favorable channels for hydrocarbon migration. The multistage activities of these faults influence the development of hydrocarbon-bearing structures. They can also produce fracture systems that enhance reservoir properties and boost oil and gas production. Understanding how strike-slip fault segments and their associated structures affect hydrocarbon accumulation is essential for geological research and exploration planning. This study aims to characterize the geometry and structural evolution of the strike-slip basement fault with Pan-African or Arabian trends, investigate the relationship between fault segments, and assess their impact on the distribution of hydrocarbon traps. This research focuses on the structural and tectono-sedimentary analyses of the Kazerun fault system based on processing and interpretation of the surface data (e.g., satellite images and aeromagnetic data) and the subsurface data (e.g., 2D and 3D seismic and well data) in the Zagros orogenic belt, SW Iran. The relationship between the segmented strike-slip fault zone and hydrocarbon reservoirs is analyzed through map view patterns and profile features. Results reveal that the Arabian-trending Kazerun fault system comprises segmented dextral strike-slip faults and is considered a transform and wrench fault. These faults display various planar configurations, including linear, en-echelon, horsetail splays, and irregular geometries in the map view. Based on the seismic data interpretation, three structural styles develop along the Kazerun strike-slip fault zone, including vertical or oblique, pull-apart (negative flower structure), and push-up (positive flower structure) segments. Releasing and restraining bends and oversteps formed at the tail end of the Kazerun strike-slip fault segments. In the study area, salt diapirism occurred along the pull-apart segment and the releasing bend. Hydrocarbon traps are developed in the push-up segment and the restraining bend. Fractures are less prominent in the vertical segments but more developed in push-up and pull-apart segments, which act as pathways for fluid migration and improving reservoir quality. The push-up segment and restraining bend exhibit a higher degree of branching fractures, making them the most significant for reservoir development. This research shows that strike-slip fault segmentation (in the form of fault overlapping or stepping) and their lateral linkage control the reservoir distribution and connectivity. Recognizing the growth and lateral connections of strike-slip fault segments is crucial for structural analysis and predicting fault-controlled reservoirs. These findings offer valuable insights into the structural characteristics of strike-slip fault zones and can enhance oil and gas exploration in the Zagros fold-and-thrust belt and other similar regions.

 

Keywords:

Strike-slip basement fault, Segmentation pattern, Oil/Gas fields, Zagros orogenic belt, SW Iran

 

How to cite: Soleimany, B., Tajmir Riahi, Z., Payrovian, G. R., and Sepahvand, S.: Impact of segmentation pattern of the Pan-African trending strike-slip basement fault on the spatial distribution of hydrocarbon traps in SW Iran, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1377, 2026.

Skarn-type Cu–Fe–Au mineralization in the Middle–Lower Yangtze River Metallogenic Belt (MLYRB) is closely associated with Early Cretaceous intermediate to felsic magmatism; however, the links between magmatic evolution and ore-forming efficiency remain poorly constrained. In the Tonglushan ore field, one of the largest Cu–Fe–Au skarn systems in eastern China, multiple intrusive phases are spatially distributed, providing an ideal opportunity to investigate how magmatic processes control metallogenic potential. Here we present new geochronological and geochemical constraints on quartz monzodiorite porphyry, quartz monzodiorite, quartz diorite, and their mafic microgranular enclaves (MMEs) from different sectors of the Tonglushan ore field.

Zircon U–Pb ages indicate synchronous emplacement of all intrusive phases and MMEs at ca. 142–140 Ma. Whole-rock geochemistry and Sr–Nd–Hf isotopes indicate that these intrusive rocks belong to a high-K calc-alkaline to weakly adakitic series and were derived from an enriched lithospheric mantle source modified by slab-derived components, followed by extensive fractional crystallization. The MMEs record efficient mixing between mafic and felsic magmas, highlighting the role of mafic recharge in supplying heat and metal components to the evolving system. Estimates of magmatic water contents and oxygen fugacity from zircon compositions reveal systematic variations among different intrusions. The Jiguanzui and Tonglushan quartz monzodiorite porphyries are characterized by high water contents and elevated oxidation states, consistent with intense Cu–Au and Cu–Fe–Au mineralization, whereas the weakly mineralized Zhengjiawan quartz diorite exhibits lower values. These observations suggest that, beyond structural controls, the metallogenic fertility of intrusions in the Tonglushan ore field was primarily governed by fractional crystallization, mafic magma input, and the development of highly hydrous and oxidized magmatic systems.

Our study demonstrates that integrated whole-rock and zircon geochemical indicators provide effective tools for evaluating the ore-forming potential of skarn-type Cu–Fe–Au mineralization related intrusions in the MLYRB.

How to cite: Zhang, M. and Tan, J.: Magmatic controls on skarn-type Cu–Fe–Au mineralization in the Tonglushan ore field, Middle–Lower Yangtze River Metallogenic Belt, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2162, 2026.

Low-temperature thermochronology provides key constraints on the post-mineralization exhumation and preservation of orogenic gold deposits. In this study, we investigate the exhumation histories of the Anjiayingzi and Jinchanggouliang gold deposits, located respectively in the Kalaqin metamorphic core complex (MCC) and the Nuluerhu magmatic dome within the Chifeng–Chaoyang metallogenic belt on the northern margin of the North China Craton.

Both deposits formed in the Early Cretaceous (~130 Ma), but at significantly different depths (5.6–7.1 km for Anjiayingzi and 1.0–2.6 km for Jinchanggouliang), and are currently exposed at the surface, implying differential post-mineralization exhumation. Zircon and apatite (U–Th)/He and fission-track analyses were conducted on ore-hosting rocks to reconstruct cooling and exhumation histories. Combined age–elevation relationships and thermal history modeling reveal that the Anjiayingzi deposit experienced multi-stage, rapid exhumation totaling ~6.75 km since mineralization, with the most intense exhumation occurring between 130 and 80 Ma. In contrast, the Jinchanggouliang deposit underwent slower and more limited exhumation, with a total exhumation of ~2.50 km over the same period.

The contrasting exhumation histories coincide with an Early Cretaceous regional extensional regime affecting the northern margin of the North China Craton. We suggest that tectonic setting plays a first-order role in controlling post-mineralization exhumation. Deposits hosted within MCCs are characterized by rapid extensional denudation related to detachment faulting, whereas deposits hosted in magmatic domes are mainly exhumed through regional uplift and surface erosion. These results emphasize the importance of structural architecture in governing the exhumation, preservation, and exposure of gold deposits in extensional orogenic systems.

How to cite: Li, A. and Fu, L.: Post-mineralization exhumation of gold deposits on the northern margin of the North China Craton: constraints from low-temperature thermochronology, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2243, 2026.

The Southeast Anatolian Suture Belt hosts the oceanic and continental remnants of the southern Neotethyan realm. During the Late Cretaceous, the southern Neotethyan domain experienced an Andean-type magmatism on its northern continental margin (the Tauride-Anatolide Platform), characterized by the Baskil Magmatics. The plutonic part of this unit is intruded by numerous dikes, which are the primary focus of this study. The U-Pb zircon dating of the dikes and their granodioritic host rocks indicates that their emplacement occurred within a narrow interval, between 81-79 Ma. The dikes vary chemically from basalt to dacite, while the host rocks range from andesitic to dacitic. On the normal mid-ocean ridge (N-MORB)-normalized plots, all samples exhibit negative Nb anomalies. Trace element systematics reveals that this dike system is chemically heterogeneous, consisting of five distinct chemical types. The elemental and isotope ratios indicate varying contributions from depleted and enriched components. All chemical types, with relative Nb depletion, suggest incorporation of slab-derived and/or crustal additions. This interpretation is further supported by the EM-2-like Pb isotopic ratios. Based on the variability in elemental and isotopic composition, this intrusive system appears highly heterogeneous, likely due to the combined effects of mantle source, crustal contamination, and fractional crystallization. The bulk geochemical characteristics of the studied dikes and their host rocks suggest that these intrusives formed at a continental arc. Considering the available paleontological and geochronological age data, it appears that the intraoceanic subduction and continental arc magmatism in the Southern Neotethys occurred simultaneously; the former created the Yüksekova arc-basin system, whereas the latter formed the Baskil Arc.

Note: This study was supported by project Fübap-MF.15.12.

How to cite: Ural, M., Sayit, K., Koralay, E., and Göncüoglu, M. C.: Geochemical and Geochronological approaches of Baskil Dikes (Elazığ, Eastern Turkey): Discrimination between the Late Cretaceous Continental and Oceanic Arc-related Magmatism in the Southern Neotethys, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2274, 2026.

EGU26-2923 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS25

Structure-controlled Uranium + REE mineralization in low temperature basinal brine hydrothermal system at the contact of Kaladgi Basin and Peninsular Gneissic Complex, South India 

Akash Mahanandia, Maneesh M. Lal, T Guneshwar Singh, Natarajan Nandhagopal, and Sahendra Singh

The Kaladgi Basin, an E–W trending intracratonic basin in the northern part of the Dharwar Craton, preserves favourable structural and stratigraphic conditions for sandstone-hosted and unconformity-related U–REE mineralization. In the study area, the Neoproterozoic Cave Temple Arenite (CTA) of the Badami Group unconformably overlies deformed Mesoproterozoic rocks of the Bagalkot Group. The crystalline basement of the Kaladgi Supergroup comprises Meso- to Neoarchaean Peninsular Gneiss and the Chitradurga Greenstone Belt. This association of cratonic basement, schist belt, and basin-margin fault and fold systems provides an excellent structural framework for hydrothermal fluid circulation and mineralization.

Detailed thematic mapping at 1:25,000 scale in the Ramdurg–Suriban sector reveals that NNW–SSE–oriented Dharwarian stress generated a series of anticlines and synclines involving the Saundatti Quartzite, Malaprabha Phyllite, and Yaragatti Argillite, as constrained by conjugate fracture analysis and S–C fabric development. An E–W trending tectonic fault defines the contact between the Peninsular Gneissic Complex and Saundatti Quartzite, with comparable faulted contacts also developed within the Bagalkot Group. Intense faulting resulted in silicification, chalcedonic brecciation, and pervasive hydrothermal alteration along these contact zones. Transverse normal faults with associated brecciation accommodate strain related to the main E–W structure and indicate episodic reactivation of the basin architecture.

Fusion ICP–MS analysis of 20 bedrock samples collected proximal to these fault zones shows U238 concentrations exceeding twice the threshold values of National Geochemical Mapping (NGCM) stream sediment sample. Uranium enrichment is spatially associated with Malaprabha Phyllite, first-cycle CTA, and silicified banded hematite quartzite veins of the Hiriyur Formation. Chondrite-normalized (La/Yb)n versus (Eu/Eu*)n systematics indicates a dominantly low-temperature basinal brine hydrothermal system characterized by low (La/Yb)n <25 and negative Eu anomalies. Redox-sensitive (Ce/Ce*)n versus (Eu/Eu*)n plots further indicate reducing fluid conditions. In contrast, quartz–chlorite veins developed within sheared Malaprabha Phyllite and younger dolerite record comparatively higher-temperature fluids, marked by Eu2+ mobilization ((Eu/Eu*)n > 0.8) and negative Ce anomalies. These results suggest that reactivated, structure-controlled tectonites acted as effective fluid pathways, with the TTG-dominated Peninsular Gneissic Complex serving as a likely uranium source and contributing to localized U–REE mineralization along the basin margin.

How to cite: Mahanandia, A., Lal, M. M., Singh, T. G., Nandhagopal, N., and Singh, S.: Structure-controlled Uranium + REE mineralization in low temperature basinal brine hydrothermal system at the contact of Kaladgi Basin and Peninsular Gneissic Complex, South India, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2923, 2026.

EGU26-3001 | Posters virtual | VPS25

Thermo-Poro-Elastic effects as hidden drivers of gravity signals in volcanic systems 

Massimo Nespoli, Maurizio Bonafede, and Maria Elina Belardinelli

Gravity observations are widely used in volcanic monitoring to infer subsurface mass redistributions, commonly interpreted in terms of magma intrusion. However, gravity changes may also arise from thermo-poro-elastic (TPE) processes associated with temperature and pore-pressure variations in fluid-saturated reservoirs. Neglecting these effects can lead to ambiguous or misleading interpretations of gravity signals during volcanic unrest.

The recent development of TPE inclusion models allows us to describe the mechanical fields induced by fluid-saturated rock volumes undergoing pore-pressure and temperature variations. These sources can coexist with magmatic sources within volcanic systems and are typically located at shallower depths than the deep magmatic reservoir, which acts as the primary engine by releasing hot fluids. These exsolved fluids rise from depth and either accumulate in, or migrate through, overlying brittle rock volumes, which respond to thermal and pore-pressure perturbations and therefore act as secondary sources of deformation and gravity change. In this work, we consider a disk-shaped TPE inclusion, a geometry that has been successfully applied in previous studies to represent deformation fields that are predominantly radial and associated with axisymmetric sources.

The results show that gravity variations induced by a TPE inclusion depend strongly on the fluid phase. Both liquid water and gaseous fluids can produce the same significant ground uplift, but lead to different gravity residuals: negative for liquid water and minor but positive for gaseous fluids. In contrast, condensation or vaporization of a thin layer near the surface can generate large gravity changes without notable deformation. As a result, heating and pressurization of a TPE inclusion can mask or weaken the gravitational signature of magma ascent, complicating the interpretation of gravity data and highlighting the need to account for hydrothermal effects when estimating magma volumes during unrest.

Gravity data collected over the past decades at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) provide an ideal test site for applying our model and offer intriguing insights into both past and current unrest phases, although our results are applicable to any volcanic system with an active hydrothermal system. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating TPE effects into gravity data interpretation and integrated volcano monitoring strategies. Accounting for them improves our ability to distinguish between magmatic and hydrothermal contributions, leading to more robust assessments of subsurface dynamics and volcanic hazards.

How to cite: Nespoli, M., Bonafede, M., and Belardinelli, M. E.: Thermo-Poro-Elastic effects as hidden drivers of gravity signals in volcanic systems, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3001, 2026.

EGU26-4327 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS25

The initial results about optimum the random walk process noise rate for GNSS tropospheric delay estimation 

Miaomiao Wang, Borui Lu, and Qingmin Zhong

Abstract: Unlike ionosphere, troposphere is nondispersive and delays cannot be determined from observations of signals at different radio frequencies. In GNSS data processing, station height, receiver clock error and tropospheric delay are highly correlated to each other, especially in kinematic situations. Although zenith hydrostatic delay can be provided with sufficient accuracy, zenith wet delay, which is more spatially and temporally varying than hydrostatic component, has to be carefully processed. Usually, temporal dependence of tropospheric delays at zenith is modeled as a random walk process with a solely given process noise rate σrw in GNSS processing. The usually used σrw is a constant throughout whole process session and is in range of 3~10 mm per sqrt hour. This setting is generally appropriate for desirable GNSS positioning estimation in normal conditions. However, modeling zenith tropospheric delay by using a constant σrw in whole session will be unsatisfactory in cases of special weather conditions, e.g., the shower case. The σrw is a measure of magnitude of typical variation of zenith path delay or its residual after calibration in a given time. Values of σrw that are too large could weaken strength for geodetic estimation, while values that are too small may introduce systematic errors, since a strong constraint for tropospheric unknowns is imposed to stabilize the system. The random walk model for wet delay must be constrained approximately to "correct" value to obtain optimum parameters estimates. Assuming temporal change of tropospheric delay at an arbitrary station can be described by random walk model, the process noise levels were calculated by some scholars. They employed water vapor radiometric, surface meteorological measurements and numerical weather model data set for optimum selection of σrw. In general, although a lot of efforts have made to optimize post-processing and/or real-time GNSS tropospheric delay estimation, stochastic modeling of zenith wet delay remains insufficiently investigated, especially for kinematic applications. Since temporal variation of zenith wet delay depends on water vapor content in atmosphere, it seems to be reasonable that constraints should be geographically and/or time dependent. In this work, we first investigate sensitivity of both station coordinates and zenith wet delay estimators on different σrw values, and then try to propose to take benefit from post-processed static or kinematic estimated tropospheric delay to obtain the optimum σrw. The general objective is that if zenith tropospheric delays are of different variation characteristic, e.g., relatively stable or rapid changing, then a varying σrw, e.g., small or large value, could be employed, which should be more theoretically feasible compared with a invariant σrw. The initial results show that the new method can efficiently obtain epoch-wise σrw values at different stations. Compared to results from conventional constant σrw value, time-varying noise rate can improve precision of PPP solutions. We note that this first results represent performance view at several selected stations, more works should be done to draw global or even long-term conclusions.

This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (42304010), Youth Foundation of Changzhou Institute of Technology (YN21046).

How to cite: Wang, M., Lu, B., and Zhong, Q.: The initial results about optimum the random walk process noise rate for GNSS tropospheric delay estimation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4327, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4327, 2026.

The Yanshan-Liaoning metallogenic belt (YLMB), the second-largest molybdenum deposit cluster in China, hosts over twenty porphyry molybdenum deposits, including the large-scale Caosiyao, Sadaigoumen, and Dasuji deposits, as well as the newly discovered medium- to large-scale Qiandongdamiao, Zhujiawa, and Taipingcun deposits. Geochronological data indicate that the duration of molybdenum mineralization spanned ca. 100 Myrs, from the Triassic to Early Cretaceous (240–140 Ma). However, the reasons for such a prolonged or multi-period metallogenic event, and the magmatic and geodynamic processes controlling the spatial–temporal distribution of these deposits, remain poorly understood.

Here we summarize the geological, chronological and geochemical data from selected molybdenum deposit to reconstruct the temporal–spatial distribution and tectonic setting of ore- metallogenic history in the YLMB. The formation of molybdenum deposit in the YLMB can be divided into three periods of 240–220 Ma, 185–180 Ma and 160–140 Ma. The ore-forming intrusions among these three periods illustrate an overall characteristic that metaluminous to peraluminous, high-K calc-alkalic to shoshonite series acidic rocks, and the source of intrusions is the Archaean–Paleoproterozoic lower crust. Through in-depth analysis of Sr-Nd-Hf isotopic data, we find that the magma source that during the 185-180 Ma stage is relatively younger, mainly reflecting the partial melting of Paleoproterozoic crust, whereas the magma source that during the 240–220 Ma and 160–140 Ma stages likely are contained both from the Paleoproterozoic and Neoarchean crust. Further calculations using trace element content ratios reveal a shallower magma source along the magma evolution during the 240–220 Ma period, which supported by the gradual decrease trend in crustal thickness. In contrast, the calculation of crustal thickness during the 185–180 Ma and 160–140 Ma stages show an increase trend, suggested an thicken process in the depth of the magma source.

Spatially, the porphyry molybdenum deposits formed during these three periods exhibit distinct geographic distributions. Deposits formed at 240–220 Ma are mainly located in the northern part of the YLMB, including the Chengde-Zhangbei-Fengning district. Those formed at 185–180 Ma are primarily located in the Liaoxi district, eastern part of the YLMB while deposits formed at 160–140 Ma are located in the southern part of the YLMB, particularly in the Xinghe-Zhangjiakou-Xinglong district. We propose that the variations of the spatial–temporal distribution and geochemical characteristics of the molybdenum deposit formed during different periods in the YLMB are controlled by variations of their geodynamic settings. The porphyry molybdenum deposits formed in 240–220 Ma are under the post-collision or post-orogenic extension environment between the North China Plate and the Siberian Plate in the Middle Triassic. Deposits formed in 185–180 Ma are under the extension environment in the early stage of the Yanshanian movement, and porphyry molybdenum deposits formed in 160–140 Ma are in the strong extrusion environment in the main stage of the Yanshanian movement.

Our findings demonstrate the multi-period metallogenic history of the YLMB, highlighting the critical role of magma source, storage depth, and geodynamic setting in controlling the formation of porphyry molybdenum deposits.

How to cite: Jiang, C., Liu, Q., Cao, L., Li, A., and Fu, L.: Magmatic and geodynamic processes control on the formation of porphyry molybdenum deposits: Insights from the Yanshan-Liaoning metallogenic belt, northern margin of North China Craton, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4396, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4396, 2026.

Microcontinents are isolated fragments of continental crust surrounded by oceanic lithosphere. They commonly occur in modern ocean and are also recognized in orogenic system. They can be accreted onto continental margins through collision and subduction during ocean-continent subduction process, and lead to migration of subduction zone toward the oceanic side. However, it is not well understood whether and how this process can be recorded by metamorphism. In this study, a high grade metamorphic-magmatic terrane is recognized along the previously defined Qilian block. The Datong-Mengyuan terrane (DMT) is separated from the low-medium grade metamorphic basement of the Qilian block (QLB) by dextral strike-slip ductile shear zone and ophiolite mélange. The petrology and texturally-controlled U-Pb multi-mineral geochronology reveal that the mafic and felsic granulites from the DMT record two significance events of metamorphism. The earlier event experienced a pressure and temperature conditions of 11.4–13.7 kbar and 735–805°C at ca. 500 Ma, and later stage records a pressure and temperature conditions of 5.5–9.6 kbar and 790–840°C at ca. 460 Ma. We suggest that the earlier Cambrian high pressure granulite facies metamorphism is resulted from collision and thickening related to the accretion of the DMT to the Qilian block, and the later low-medium pressure granulite facies overprinting formed by decompression heating, which happened in continental arc setting and is associated with shift of subduction zone toward the ocean. These findings provide a critical example of metamorphic record on the microcontinent accretion and convergent plate boundary dynamics.

How to cite: Mao, X. and Zhang, J.: Metamorphism records microcontinent accretion and subduction relocation: an example from early Paleozoic Qilian Orogenic Belt, NW China, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4872, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4872, 2026.

EGU26-4988 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS25

Adsorption of Helium and Argon on the (001) Surface of Periclase: A First-Principles Study 

Anjitha Karangara and Pratik Kumar Das

The distribution of rare gases within the Earth’s interior has caught the attention of scientists for the past few years. The inertness and volatility of noble gases make them excellent tracers for understanding the chemical evolution of Earth’s mantle and atmosphere. Previous studies indicate that noble gases can be found associated with clathrates, form their own oxides, or, in some cases, noble gases such as helium and xenon can even bond with Fe under extreme pressure (p) - temperature (T) conditions like those in Earth’s core. However, the ability of lower mantle mineral phases to house rare gases remains poorly understood, leaving important gaps in knowledge. Helium and argon are noble gases of interest in this study. The isotopes 4He and 40Ar are produced from the radioactive decay of 238U and 40K within the Earth’s interior, while 3He and 36Ar are regarded as primordial, introduced during the accretion of Earth. Dong et al. (2022) revealed that noble gases can become reactive under mantle pressure conditions. Still, their ability to be incorporated into mantle minerals via adsorption needs to be thoroughly studied, as there are many limitations in the experiments conducted to measure the solubility of noble gases in minerals under mantle p-T conditions. In this study, we investigated the adsorption behavior of helium and argon on the (001) plane of periclase (MgO) by employing first-principles density functional theory (DFT) calculations.

Adsorption energies were estimated across pressures ranging from 0 to 125 GPa, representative of conditions throughout Earth’s interior, i.e., approximately up to the Core Mantle Boundary (CMB). At ambient pressure, both helium and argon showed negative adsorption energies, indicating stable adsorption relative to isolated species (MgO, Ar, He). These energies became increasingly negative with pressure, becoming notably negative beyond 75 GPa which corresponds to lower mantle pressures. This may be due to the accelerated reactivity of noble gases at extreme pressure conditions, as reported in previous studies. Additionally, under all pressure conditions argon exhibited stronger adsorption than helium, indicating enhanced argon retention in lower mantle conditions. However, further investigations into the mechanical and dynamical stability of these adsorbed structures are required to completely understand the mechanisms governing noble gas occurrence in the Earth’s lower mantle.

How to cite: Karangara, A. and Kumar Das, P.: Adsorption of Helium and Argon on the (001) Surface of Periclase: A First-Principles Study, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4988, 2026.

EGU26-5147 | Posters virtual | VPS25

Soil CO₂ Emissions as Indicators of Fluid Pathways in Volcanic–Tectonic Environments: Insights from Vulcano Island 

Sofia De Gregorio, Marco Camarda, Giorgio Capasso, Roberto M.R. Di Martino, Antonino Pisciotta, and Vincenzo Prano

Soil CO₂ emission is a key proxy for investigating fluid migration processes associated with volcanic and tectonic activity. In particular, the analysis of the spatial distribution of geochemical anomalies represents an effective tool for identifying active structures and zones of ongoing deformation. Numerous studies have shown that faults and fracture systems play a fundamental role in controlling the localization and evolution of surface geochemical anomalies.

Vulcano Island (Aeolian Archipelago, Italy) is characterized by intense hydrothermal activity and persistent soil CO₂ emissions, providing a natural laboratory to investigate the relationships between fluid circulation and active tectonic structures. In this study, we present an integrated analysis of soil CO₂ fluxes based on results obtained from periodic surveys and continuous soil CO₂ flux records acquired at key sites across the island.

Periodic measurements are performed on fixed spatial grids, allowing the production of soil CO₂ flux maps and the identification of areas characterized by elevated degassing rates. At selected sites, the carbon isotopic composition of gases is analyzed to constrain gas sources.

These spatial datasets provide insights into the structural control exerted by the main tectonic lineaments on gas release at the surface. Continuous CO₂ flux monitoring enables the investigation of temporal variations and transient degassing signals potentially related to seismic and tectonic processes. In particular, the recent volcanic crisis at Vulcano Island, started on 2021, characterized by a marked increase in soil CO₂ flux, allowed a more detailed identification of preferential CO₂ emission pathways, highlighting zones of enhanced permeability associated with fault and fracture systems.

This work is carried out within the framework of the CAVEAT project (Central-southern Aeolian islands: Volcanism and tEArIng in the Tyrrhenian subduction system), which aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the current geodynamics of the southern Tyrrhenian region.

How to cite: De Gregorio, S., Camarda, M., Capasso, G., Di Martino, R. M. R., Pisciotta, A., and Prano, V.: Soil CO₂ Emissions as Indicators of Fluid Pathways in Volcanic–Tectonic Environments: Insights from Vulcano Island, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5147, 2026.

EGU26-6294 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS25

Temperature-dependence of CO2 drawdown into Mg-bearing minerals. 

Sumaila Z. Sulemana, Sasha Wilson, Annah Moyo, Shaheen Akhtar, Ian M. Power, and Sylvia Sleep

Mg-bearing minerals, including brucite [Mg(OH)2], lizardite [Mg₃(Si₂O₅)(OH)₄] and iowaite [Mg₆Fe³⁺₂(OH)₁₆Cl₂·4H₂O] are variably reactive with carbon dioxide (CO2) at Earth’s surface conditions and can be used to mineralize and sequester this greenhouse gas. Here, we assess the impact of temperature (5, 20 and 40 °C) on the rate of CO2 mineralization of these minerals. At each temperature, mineral powders (~100 mg ) were placed in a 7.5-litre flow-through reactor that was supplied with humidified laboratory air (0.042% CO2; 100% RH) at ~200 mL/min. Subsamples (n = 54) of each mineral were collected over 3 months and analyzed (XRD, TIC, BET) to ascertain the amount and rate of carbonation as a function of time, temperature, and mineral feedstock.

Preliminary X-ray diffraction (XRD) results show the formation of dypingite [Mg₅(CO₃)₄(OH)₂·5H₂O] and a decrease in the abundance of brucite over time. The 003 peak of iowaite shifted to smaller d-spacings, indicating replacement of chloride by carbonate ions and a transition to a more pyroaurite-rich [Mg₆Fe³⁺₂(CO₃)(OH)₁₆·4H₂O] composition. Total Inorganic Carbon (TIC) measurements were used to determine the amount and rate of carbonation as a function of time, temperature, and mineralogy.

The results of this study will help us estimate the carbonation kinetics of these minerals in ultramafic ores and mine tailings under different temperature conditions relevant to large-scale deployment of CO2 mineralization at mines across the globe.

How to cite: Sulemana, S. Z., Wilson, S., Moyo, A., Akhtar, S., Power, I. M., and Sleep, S.: Temperature-dependence of CO2 drawdown into Mg-bearing minerals., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6294, 2026.

The main focus of the study is to calibrate Sentinel-1 InSAR Line-of-Sight (LOS) velocities along a ~700 km North-South transect extending from the Black Sea coast (Kastamonu-Samsun) to the Mediterranean (Mersin-Gaziantep). This transect encompasses diverse tectonic regimes, including the North Anatolian Fault Zone, the Central Anatolian Block, and the junction of the East Anatolian Fault Zone. This complex structure of the transect requires detailed analysis of the GNSS-InSAR calibration procedure including validation. 

Across the study region, processed LiCSAR products are integrated with 3D velocities derived from the continuous local CORS network (21 stations) and an extensive campaign-based GNSS network (200 stations). For calibration, GNSS velocities are first projected into the satellite LOS geometry using LOS vectors derived from coherent InSAR pixels within a 1-km radius. The velocity bias (ΔVlos) is calculated at continuous GNSS locations. This correction surface is propagated using various conventional and Machine Learning techniques independently, including Kriging, Weighted Least Squares (WLS) based Quadratic Surface fitting, Thin Plate Spline (TPS) and Radial Basis Functions (Gaussian, Multiquadric, and Inverse Multiquadric). To address specific error sources, the contributions of topography-correlated atmospheric delays and local spatial trends are also analyzed by Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Random Forest regression. Cross-validation is applied to assess the quality of each model individually where spatial random sampling and plate boundaries are also considered. This study presents preliminary results for obtaining a validated basis for generating up-to-date velocity fields over Türkiye.

How to cite: Elvanlı, M. and Durmaz, M.: Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning and Geostatistical Approaches for GNSS-InSAR Integration: A Case Study in Anatolia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7178, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7178, 2026.

EGU26-7764 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS25

Impact of Storm-Adapted DORIS Processing on Orbit Quality and Earth Rotation Parameters During Geomagnetic Storms  

Vikash Kumar, Petr Stepanek, Vratislav Filler, Nagarajan Balasubramanian, and Onkar Dikshit

Geomagnetic storms (GS) significantly perturb the near-Earth environment, leading to enhanced thermosphere density, increased non-conservative forces, and degraded satellite orbit determination, particularly for Doppler-based techniques such as DORIS. In this study, we investigate and improve DORIS orbit determination performance during GS conditions by developing storm-adapted processing strategies. Storm days were classified using geomagnetic indices and categorized into moderate to severe storm levels (G3-G5).

Four distinct processing strategies were implemented and evaluated: a standard operational solution and three experimental storm-adapted solutions, designed through systematic modifications of drag constraints and observation-elimination criteria. These strategies were tested through targeted daily and weekly experiments conducted across multiple DORIS-equipped satellites, with a particular emphasis on periods of intense storms.

The storm-adapted strategies demonstrate clear performance improvements relative to the standard solution during geomagnetic storms. The modified strategies reduce orbit residual RMS in all orbital components, improve Length-of-Day (LOD) variance by approximately 40-80%, and decrease LOD mean biases by nearly 60%. Additionally, Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP) exhibit notable improvements, with reductions of approximately 22–25% in both bias and variability for the polar motion components (X/Y pole). Among the tested configurations, the combined strategy, particularly when applied with zero-rotation constraints, consistently delivers the best performance during intense storm conditions (Kp ≥ 8+). These results demonstrate that storm-adapted DORIS processing strategies significantly enhance orbit and geophysical parameter estimation during disturbed space-weather conditions.

How to cite: Kumar, V., Stepanek, P., Filler, V., Balasubramanian, N., and Dikshit, O.: Impact of Storm-Adapted DORIS Processing on Orbit Quality and Earth Rotation Parameters During Geomagnetic Storms , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7764, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7764, 2026.

EGU26-8505 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS25

Study on the Source of Ore-Forming Materials of the Sangmuchang Barite Deposit in Northern Guizhou 

Yunming Chen, Jian Wang, and Zhichen Liu

Abstract: The study of fluid inclusions and sulfur isotope characteristics of barite deposits is crucial for tracing the source of ore-forming materials and predicting prospecting targets. Current research indicate that the Sangmuchang barite deposit in northern Guizhou is primarily hosted within the joint fractures of dolomites in the Sinian Dengying Formation and Cambrian Qingxudong Formation. The contact between ore bodies and surrounding rocks is distinct, with the orebodies occurring as veins and lenticular. The ore textures are mainly veinlets, stockworks, massive, and banded, while the ore structures consist of inequigranular tabular-columnar blastic, fine-crystalline, and arenaceous texture.  Fluid inclusion studies reveal that  the inclusions are single-phase aqueous inclusions. Microthermometric measurements of 33 inclusions show that their homogenization temperatures range from 81°C to 182°C, with an average of 132°C; Salinity values vary from 9.61 wt.% NaCl eqv to 20.63 wt.% NaCl eqv, with an average of 17.53 wt.% NaCl eqv. Ten sulfur isotope analyses from the deposit show that the δ³⁴SV-CDT values range from 40.89‰ to 46.95‰, with a mean of +44.51‰.The characteristics of fluid inclusion salinity, temperature and sulfur isotopes suggest that the ore-forming fluids of this barite deposit are characterized by moderate-low temperature and moderate-high salinity. These ore-forming fluids were mainly derived from basin brines, with contributions from meteoric water. The significant enrichment of heavy sulfur isotopes and homogeneous sulfur isotope composition reveal that the sulfur source of ore-forming materials in this barite deposit is a relatively singular source for the sulfur in the ore-forming materials, which is similar to the δ³⁴S characteristics of Sinian marine evaporites, suggesting a close genetic relationship between the sulfur source and evaporites. Therefore, the Sangmuchang barite deposit is interpreted as a moderate-low temperature hydrothermal deposit.  It was formed by the migration of moderate -low temperature hydrothermal fluids in the sedimentary basin, which leached ore-forming materials from underlying and surrounding barium-rich evaporite sequences, followed by precipitation within structural fracture zones under the mixing of meteoric water. The structural fracture zones and areas indicative of fluid migration pathways along the basin margin are important targets for exploration prediction. Keywords: ore-forming fluid; fluid inclusion; sulfur isotope; barite; northern Guizhou

How to cite: Chen, Y., Wang, J., and Liu, Z.: Study on the Source of Ore-Forming Materials of the Sangmuchang Barite Deposit in Northern Guizhou, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8505, 2026.

EGU26-11094 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS25

Hydrothermal remobilization and redox trapping of uranium in metabasalts of the Bodal mine, Central India 

Swati Ganveer, Smruti Prakash Mallick, and Kamal Lochan Pruseth

Uranium is a strategically important metal with applications in nuclear energy, medicine, radiometric dating, food processing, industrial radiography, material sciences, and catalysis. This study presents a detailed microtextural and geochemical investigation of uranium mineralization from the Bodal uranium mine, Mohla-Manpur-Chowki, Central India. Uranium occurs as both crystalline and colloidal precipitates, with coffinite [U(SiO4)1-x(OH)4x] and gummite representing the dominant uranium-bearing phases. The mineralization is spatially and genetically associated with altered metabasalts. Petrographic and geochemical evidence indicates that late-stage hydrothermal alteration played a crucial role in uranium remobilization and ore enrichment. Sulphide minerals, including cobaltite (CoAsS), galena (PbS), arsenopyrite (FeAsS), and chalcopyrite (CuFeS2), are intimately associated with uranium phases and likely acted as effective reductants and sorption substrates, facilitating uranium precipitation under reducing conditions. The ore assemblage is accompanied by abundant accessory minerals such as zircon, allanite, and apatite. Substitution of U4+ for Zr4+ in zircon locally records uranium-rich hydrothermal fluids and contributes to zirconium enrichment. Collectively, these observations suggest that hydrothermal fluid–rock interaction and redox-controlled precipitation were the dominant processes responsible for uranium enrichment at the Bodal mine.

Keywords: Uranium mineralization; Hydrothermal alteration; Redox-controlled precipitation; Bodal mine; Central India

 

How to cite: Ganveer, S., Mallick, S. P., and Pruseth, K. L.: Hydrothermal remobilization and redox trapping of uranium in metabasalts of the Bodal mine, Central India, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11094, 2026.

The Kirazlı porphyry and high-sulfidation (HS) epithermal system is situated in the central Biga Peninsula of northwestern Türkiye, a region characterized by the protracted closure of the Tethyan oceanic branches and the subsequent collision of Gondwana-derived continental fragments with the Sakarya Zone. This geodynamic framework facilitated the development of diverse tectono-magmatic environments, leading to the formation of porphyry and associated hydrothermal mineralization during the Cenozoic. Based on established geochronological data, magmatism in the Biga Peninsula occurred in five discrete chronostratigraphic episodes: Paleocene to Early Eocene (65–49 Ma), Middle–Late Eocene (49–35 Ma), Late Eocene to Early Oligocene (35–23 Ma), Late Oligocene to Middle Miocene (~23–14 Ma), and Late Miocene to Pliocene (14–5 Ma). Mineralization within the Kirazlı district is temporally constrained to two primary intervals—Late Eocene to Early Oligocene and Oligocene to Early Miocene corresponding to specific magmatic pulses and structurally mediated by major regional shear zones.

Integration of the ages of fault-hosting lithologies, structural styles, fault geometries, and paleostress reconstructions indicates three distinct tectonic phases consistent with the regional Cenozoic evolution: (1) NW–SE extension (Phase-1), (2) NNE–SSW extension (Phase-2), and (3) NE–SW extension (Phase-3). Detailed field observations, petrographic analysis, and microstructural investigations of oriented samples demonstrate that the porphyry and HS-epithermal stages were governed by these shifting stress regimes. B- and D-veins associated with the porphyry stage exhibit preferred orientations along an ENE–WSW strike, consistent with the NW–SE extensional regime of Phase-1. In contrast, late-stage quartz veins within the HS-epithermal overprint formed under a NNE–SSW extensional stress field, aligning with the Phase-2 tectonic pulse.

Analysis of fault planes for both Phase-2 and Phase-3 indicates that ENE–WSW and NE–SW strike directions are common to both phases. Phase-3 displays kinematic and geometric features characteristic of the modern transtensional NE–SW and strike-slip regime currently active in the Biga Peninsula. Correlation of these structural data with magmatism–mineralization age constraints indicates that the porphyry and HS-epithermal components of the Kirazlı system were emplaced during distinct tectonic periods. This evolution reflects the transition from a post-collisional setting to the current extensional and strike-slip dominated regime of western Anatolia.

How to cite: Çam, M., Kuşcu, İ., and Kaymakcı, N.: Tectono-Magmatic Evolution and Structural Controls on the Kirazlı Porphyry-High Sulfidation Epithermal System, Biga Peninsula, NW Türkiye, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11195, 2026.

EGU26-15407 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS25

 Temporal evaluation of El Chichon´s geothermal potential in the period of 1983-2025.  

José Luis Salas Ferman, Mariana Patricia Jácome Paz, Robin Campion, María Aurora Armienta, and Salvatore Inguaggiato

El Chichón is an active volcano in Chiapas, Mexico, that features a hydrothermal system characterized by thermal springs, fumaroles and an acid crater lake. Many studies have focused on tracking the geochemical evolution of its fluids since its last eruption in 1982 and some have specifically aimed to evaluate the geothermal potential.  This work assesses the evolution of the geothermal potential through time using published geochemical data (1983-2025). We use geochemical diagrams, temperatures estimated with geothermometers and water-rock interaction analysis to identify the main system changes that influence the geothermal potential estimations. Given that El Chichón has been considered  a geothermal prospect since the 1980s, we discuss the possible uses of this resource in terms of its recent active seismicity, the risk scenarios and the local socio-cultural context. 

How to cite: Salas Ferman, J. L., Jácome Paz, M. P., Campion, R., Armienta, M. A., and Inguaggiato, S.:  Temporal evaluation of El Chichon´s geothermal potential in the period of 1983-2025. , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15407, 2026.

Traditional methods for determining geopotential and height require successive transfers of leveling and gravity measurements, which are prone to error accumulation, face challenges in transoceanic applications, and are generally time-consuming, labor-intensive, and inefficient. Based on the principles of general relativity, an alternative approach using high-precision time-frequency signals to determine geopotential can overcome these limitations. In this study, simulation experiments were conducted to determine geopotential differences using BDS and Galileo five-frequency undifferenced carrier phase time-frequency transfer technology. The simulations employed clocks with different performance characteristics, utilizing precise clock offsets and multi-frequency observation data from both systems. The results show that the frequency stability achieved by BDS and Galileo five-frequency undifferenced carrier phase time-frequency transfer can reach approximately 3×10⁻¹⁷. The root mean square of the determined geopotential differences corresponds to centimeter-level equivalent height accuracy, and the convergence accuracy of the geopotential difference by the final epoch can reach better than 3.0 m²·s⁻². Given the rapid development of GNSS multi-frequency signals and ongoing improvements in the precision of products such as code and phase biases, geopotential determination based on Galileo and BDS multi-frequency signals is expected to have broader application prospects in the future. This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China project (No. 42304095), the Key Project of Natural Science Research in Universities of Anhui Province (No. 2023AH051634), the Chuzhou University Research Initiation Fund Project (No. 2023qd07).

How to cite: Xu, W. and Song, J.: Geopotential Difference Determination via BDS and Galileo Multi-Frequency Time-Frequency Signals, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15725, 2026.

EGU26-15990 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS25

How Well Is the Mantle Sampled? A Global Voxel-Based Analysis of Residence Time and Flux from Forward- and Reverse-Time Mantle Convection 

Gabriel Johnston, Molly Anderson, Alessandro Forte, and Petar Glišović

How well mixed is Earth's mantle? Are there primordial reservoirs? What fraction of the mantle feeds surface volcanism? We attempt to address these questions using large-scale Lagrangian particle tracking in time-reversed and forward convection models. We track particles backward in time using a Back-and-Forth Nudging (BFN) method applied to time-reversed thermal convection, initialized with a present-day seismic–geodynamic–mineral physics model (Glisovic & Forte, 2016, 2025). We likewise carried out long-term (multi-hundred-million-year) forward-in-time mantle convection simulations initialized with present-day mantle structure inferred from tomography. In all cases, we employ mantle viscosity structure that has been independently constrained and verified against a wide suite of present-day geodynamic observables that include free-air gravity anomalies, dynamic surface topography, horizontal divergence of plate velocities, excess core-mantle boundary ellipticity, and glacial isostatic adjustment data. A voxel-based analysis quantifies sampling density, residence time, and flux throughout the mantle.

We use different particle starting conditions, each designed to address a specific aspect of mantle mixing. To identify long-lived isolated regions, we track uniformly distributed particles both forward and backward in time, calculating residence times to locate candidate reservoirs. To estimate the sampling of lower mantle material in the upper mantle, we initialize particles in the D" layer and track them forward to determine what fraction reaches the upper mantle. To address plume dynamics and sampling, we place cylindrical arrays of particles beneath present-day hotspots and track them backward, using the statistical evolution of their standard deviation to quantify mixing along transport pathways, with transit time, and voxel analysis. To measure upper-to-lower mantle exchange, we initialize particles uniformly in the upper mantle. By combining these approaches, we systematically identify regions of low flux and high residence time, candidates for reservoirs. We further take a statistical approach based on voxel density sampling to quantify mixing across the volume of the mantle.

How to cite: Johnston, G., Anderson, M., Forte, A., and Glišović, P.: How Well Is the Mantle Sampled? A Global Voxel-Based Analysis of Residence Time and Flux from Forward- and Reverse-Time Mantle Convection, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15990, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15990, 2026.

EGU26-16148 | Posters virtual | VPS25

Geodetic degree-based Models for Robust Regional Geoid Refinement 

Ahmed Abdalla and Curtis Dwira

Accurate geoid models are essential for converting GNSS-derived heights into physically meaningful elevations and for ensuring consistency in modern height reference systems. This study presents a unified geodetic framework for refining gravimetric geoids using GNSS/leveling residuals through physically interpretable fitting models. Five correction representations are evaluated, ranging from local Cartesian planar surfaces to geodetically consistent spherical formulations of increasing degree. The analysis demonstrates that low-order models effectively remove regional bias and tilt but show limited predictive stability. To enhance robustness, iteratively reweighted least squares is applied to mitigate the influence of outliers while preserving deterministic structure. Higher-order geodetic models are stabilized using ridge regularization, with the regularization strength selected objectively through leave-one-out cross-validation. This strategy ensures numerical conditioning while directly optimizing predictive performance. Results show that the full degree-2 geodetic model offers the best balance among accuracy, stability, and physical interpretability. It reduces long-wavelength distortions while maintaining consistent in-sample and cross-validated performance. The proposed approach supports reliable GNSS-based height determination in modern vertical datum realization and height modernization efforts.

How to cite: Abdalla, A. and Dwira, C.: Geodetic degree-based Models for Robust Regional Geoid Refinement, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16148, 2026.

EGU26-22040 | Posters virtual | VPS25

Magmatic sulfate‑melt exsolution as a mechanism for excess sulfur in porphyry systems 

Wenting Huang, Madeleine Humphreys, and Huaying Liang

Sulfur released by magmatic activity strongly impacts the climate and is essential for ore mineralisation. Many porphyry systems contain up to billions of tons of sulfur, far exceeding the sulfur capacity of silicate melt and therefore requiring an additional, efficient S‑transfer mechanism.

We present a unique mafic rock (SiO₂ = 53–59 wt.%, MgO = 5.3–7.3 wt.%) containing ~15–20 vol.% anhydrite, ~30–40 vol.% biotite and ~40–50 vol.% plagioclase from the largest porphyry–epithermal system in China. Magmatic anhydrite, indicated by textural relations and LREE‑rich compositions, yields bulk‑rock S contents of ~2–3 wt.%, far above experimental S solubilities.

Plagioclase shows sharp core–rim decreases from An₅₀–₇₀ to An₂₅–₄₅, recording strong CaO depletion caused by sulfate saturation. Extensive sulfate saturation also suppressed amphibole/orthopyroxene and removed a large proportion of LREEs from the melt, producing flat REE patterns in co-crystallised apatite. Biotite exhibits pronounced Ba depletion from core to rim. Because Ba partitions strongly into sulfate melt, not into anhydrite, this Ba zoning is best explained by the formation of a sulfate melt, rather than by crystallisation of anhydrite from a silicate melt.

Nd isotopic compositions (ԑNd(t) ≈ -1.0) indicate that the magma was derived from partial melting of the mantle wedge. We suggest that ascent of this oxidised, sulfur‑rich mafic magma led to decompression-driven oxidation of S²⁻ to S⁶⁺, sulfate saturation, and exsolution of an immiscible sulfate melt. This discrete sulfate‑melt migrated upward and provided an efficient pathway for long‑distance transfer of large amounts of sulfur to porphyry systems. This sulfate‑melt exsolution process is a previously unrecognised mechanism that relaxes the constraint imposed by the sulfur capacity of silicate melt, and LREE‑depleted apatite associated with abundant magmatic sulfate phases may serve as an indicator of sulfate‑melt exsolution and a proxy for porphyry mineralisation potential in the upper crust.

How to cite: Huang, W., Humphreys, M., and Liang, H.: Magmatic sulfate‑melt exsolution as a mechanism for excess sulfur in porphyry systems, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22040, 2026.

SM1 – General Seismology

EGU26-3299 | Posters on site | SM1.1

Discussion of Local Magnitude (ML) Scale for Deep Earthquakes in Taiwan 

Xin-Yu Lin and Yih-Min Wu

The Local Magnitude (ML), was the earliest proposed magnitude scale, allows for rapid determination based on observed amplitudes and a zero magnitude reference amplitudes (A0) derived from local events. However, the amplitudes are susceptible to external factors, the physically robust Moment Magnitude (Mw) was proposed. The previous studies showed a 1:1 relationship between ML and Mw for ML < 6.5 in Southern California; however, ML in Taiwan tend to overestimate when compare to Mw due to different regional attenuation characteristics. Although the previous study has recalibrated the logA0 attenuation model for shallow earthquakes in Taiwan, deep events exhibit an even more significant overestimation, averaging overestimate 0.528. Therefore, this study aims to discuss deep earthquakes in the Taiwan and establish a new logA0 attenuation model for deep events. Since models relying solely on hypocentral distance (R) result in depth-dependent residuals, a depth term (D) was incorporated to account for the physical characteristic of deep seismic waves often propagating through high-Q plates. The derived regression model is:

logA0 = 0.097 - 1.587logR - 0.0014R + 0.417logD ± 0.273

The results demonstrate that logA0 attenuation varies distinctly with distance at different depths, aligning with Richter mentioned that different depth events require distinct calibration. Furthermore, the logA0 value at a hypocentral distance 100 km differs from that of shallow event models, indicating the difference in attenuation properties. The recalibrated ML demonstrates no depth dependency and a consistent 1:1 relationship with Mw, with a standard deviation ±0.160. This study proposed model provides a rapid and precise ML calculation. This new model enhances the reliability of real-time hazard assessment and reduces magnitude conversion errors in catalog combination.

How to cite: Lin, X.-Y. and Wu, Y.-M.: Discussion of Local Magnitude (ML) Scale for Deep Earthquakes in Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3299, 2026.

Constraining seismic velocity discontinuities at depths of ~410 km (D410) and ~660 km (D660) is critical for understanding mantle dynamics. Receiver function (RF) studies have revealed the widespread presence of a low-velocity layer (LVL) immediately above D410, supporting the global water‐filter model. Numerical experiments further predict the occurrence of double LVLs above D410 under specific conditions. However, the relationship between LVL occurrence and underlying mantle processes remains poorly understood. Conventional RF analyses rely on careful selection of high-quality traces from multiple teleseismic events at individual stations, followed by slant stacking within a time window around the P-to-S converted phase (P410S) from D410. This approach reduces data coverage and reproducibility and depends on reference Earth velocity models to align RFs. Because true mantle velocity structure and discontinuity depths deviate from these models, slant stacking is often ineffective, particularly for weak and complex converted phases associated with LVLs above D410. In this study, we apply an automated, data-driven machine learning approach to delineate LVLs above D410 using RFs from global seismic stations. Our method aligns the P410S phase without invoking theoretical travel times, instead relying on patterns inherent in the data. We demonstrate that the resulting alignment is physically meaningful and directly reflects velocitystructure near D410. This automated framework significantly improves efficiency, objectivity, and reproducibility in RF analysis. Our results reveal three global patterns of seismic velocity structure near D410: (1) a thick LVL associated with cold mantle regions and subducting slabs; (2) a double LVL, with variable inter-layer spacing, linked to hot mantle and fast upwelling; and (3) a thin LVL correlated with slower upwelling. These observations indicate that LVLs above D410 are a global feature consistent with the water‐filter model, while their detailed characteristics reflect variations in mantle upwelling style beneath seismic stations. 

How to cite: Koireng, T. R. and Bharadwaj, P.: Spatial variations of the low-velocity layer above the 410-km discontinuity and their relationship to mantle dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7533, 2026.

EGU26-7814 | ECS | Posters on site | SM1.1

Source Characteristics of the 28 September 2025 Mw 5.5 Kutahya-Simav Earthquake Sequence in Western Turkiye 

Nurdeniz Altuntaş and Tuncay Taymaz

The Anatolian Plate has a complex tectonic structure. This is mainly caused by the northward movement of the Arabian Plate and subduction along the Hellenic Arc. Many large earthquakes in Türkiye occur along the right-lateral North Anatolian Fault and the left-lateral East Anatolian Fault. Western Anatolia is dominated by north-south extension. This extension formed the Aegean Extensional Province, which includes E-W trending grabens and NW-SE oriented active faults. One of the key structures in this area is the Simav Fault Zone (SFZ). In this study, we focused on the 28 September 2025 Kütahya-Simav (Mw 5.5) earthquake located on the SFZ. Earthquake catalogs provide basic source information. However, they are often not enough to fully describe fault geometry and fault segmentation. For this reason, a detailed source analysis is needed. In this study, we present a moment tensor solution for the 2025 Kütahya-Simav earthquake. The analysis is carried out using the ISOLA and regional waveform inversion. Broadband seismic data from the AFAD and KOERI networks are used. Both point-source and possible multiple-source inversions are performed. These inversions are used to estimate the focal mechanism, seismic moment, and centroid depth. The quality of the solutions is evaluated using Variance Reduction (VR) and Condition Number (CN) values. The results are compared with previous studies and historical data from the Simav Fault Zone. This allows us to obtain a more reliable solution than standard catalog results. The findings explain the present stress pattern and fault behavior in the Kütahya-Simav region.

How to cite: Altuntaş, N. and Taymaz, T.: Source Characteristics of the 28 September 2025 Mw 5.5 Kutahya-Simav Earthquake Sequence in Western Turkiye, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7814, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7814, 2026.

EGU26-8116 | Orals | SM1.1

Receiver Function Constraints in the Western ChurchillProvince, Northern Canada 

Sina Sabermahani, Andrew Frederiksen, and Derek Drayson

The Western Churchill Province (WCP) of northern Canada is a complex assemblage of Archean to Proterozoic crust, yet its lithospheric architecture remains incompletely constrained. We present a comprehensive receiver function study of crustal structure across the WCP using approximately 5,000 high-quality P-wave receiver functions recorded at 39 broadband seismic stations between 2000 and 2025. Data quality was ensured using DeepRFQC, a machine-learning–based automated quality control framework.

Crustal thickness and bulk composition were estimated through H–κ stacking, while harmonic decomposition and differential evolution inversion of receiver functions using RAYSUM were applied to investigate crustal anisotropy, dipping interfaces, and seismic velocity structure. The mean Moho depth across the WCP is 40 ± 5 km, with pronounced lateral variability. The deepest Moho is observed in the northernmost and southernmost regions, whereas the central WCP exhibits comparatively thinner crust.

Bulk VP/VS ratios are relatively uniform (1.76–1.79), consistent with predominantly felsic crust, although elevated values near northern Hudson Bay suggest localized mafic intrusions. Harmonic decomposition reveals coherent azimuthal patterns indicative of crustal anisotropy and dipping structures, with mid-crustal discontinuities identified at approximately 9 and 30 km depth.

The orientations of harmonic components correlate with regional magnetic anomalies and independent SKS shear-wave splitting measurements, implying strong coupling between crustal structure and lithospheric mantle fabric. Comparisons with Bouguer gravity anomalies indicate that gravity variations are primarily controlled by subsurface density variations, as reflected in VP/VS ratios, rather than by Moho topography. These results provide new constraints on the crustal architecture and lithospheric coherence of the Western Churchill Province.

How to cite: Sabermahani, S., Frederiksen, A., and Drayson, D.: Receiver Function Constraints in the Western ChurchillProvince, Northern Canada, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8116, 2026.

EGU26-8789 | Posters on site | SM1.1

Establishment of a precision post-earthquake analysis system and its application to major earthquake on the Korean Peninsula 

Ah-Hyun Byun, Eunyoung Jo, Mikyung Choi, Youngjae Choi, Kyungmin Min, and Sun-Cheon Park

Currently, when an earthquake with a magnitude (ML) of 3.5 or greater occurs ob the Korean Peninsula, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) performs a post-event precision analysis to address parameters not captured during the real-time detection phase. To ensure consistent and operationally application, we developed the Post-Earthquake Precision Analysis System, which standardizes the entire workflow from data input to staged outputs.The system enhances location accuracy through precise hypocenter relocation, including relative relocation, and characterizes rupture geometry and kinematics using P-wave first-motion polarity and waveform inversion for focal mechanism solutions. Additionally, spectrum-based source parameter analysis is integrated to quantify the physical characteristics of the seismic source. To improve the completeness of the aftershock catalog, the system employs template matching to detect micro-seismic events that often go unnoticed.The Post-Earthquake Precision Analysis System was applied to major seismic events in the Korean Peninsula, yielding high-precision relocated hypocenters, focal mechanisms, and source parameters. We also generated enhanced aftershock lists and systematically organized the spatio-temporal evolution of each sequence in a standardized format. This study presents an operationally-ready analytical workflow and a core output framework for the systematic post-earthquake precision analysis of domestic seismic activity.

How to cite: Byun, A.-H., Jo, E., Choi, M., Choi, Y., Min, K., and Park, S.-C.: Establishment of a precision post-earthquake analysis system and its application to major earthquake on the Korean Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8789, 2026.

EGU26-9652 | ECS | Posters on site | SM1.1

Seismic noise environment in and around Dhubri-Chungthang Fault Zone 

Sayan Bala, Chandrani Singh, and Arun Singh

A network of fourteen broadband seismic stations has been established in the foreland basin of the Bhutan Himalaya to investigate the seismically active Dhubri-Chungthang Fault Zone (DCFZ). To assess station reliability and data integrity, a detailed analysis of ambient noise was carried out. Power spectral density (PSD) estimates were generated for each site, and the recorded noise from January 2024 to December 2024 was compared with globally recognised reference models. The findings indicate that the observed noise levels remain consistently within the global limits. The study also reveals that the instrumental tilt exerts a significant influence on the horizontal channels of broadband sensors. Mapping noise across multiple period bands shows the impact of different noise sources, including human activity, surface and body waves, and atmospheric pressure variations. Temporal fluctuations in noise amplitudes reveal seasonal changes in the short-period, microseism, and long-period bands. Overall, the results characterise the spatial and temporal variability of ambient noise in the area while confirming the stability and robustness of the seismic installations.

How to cite: Bala, S., Singh, C., and Singh, A.: Seismic noise environment in and around Dhubri-Chungthang Fault Zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9652, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9652, 2026.

EGU26-10323 | Posters on site | SM1.1

Seismological and Geochemical Monitoring of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Lower Taylor Valley (McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica) 

Paola Baccheschi, Salomon Hailemikael, Alessandra Sciarra, Gary S Wilson, Fabio Florindo, Jackson Beagley, Claudio Mazzoli, Lucy Davidson, Caitlin Berquist, and Livio Ruggiero

The Lower Taylor Valley, owing to the McMurdo Dry Valleys, are one of the coldest and driest desert ecosystems on the planet and represent a key natural laboratory for investigating permafrost, glacier dynamics, and subsurface geochemical and geophysical processes. In recent years, a systematic and dense field measurements of soil gas concentrations and fluxes revealed an anomalous greenhouse gas concentration not randomly distributed, but forming an elongated E–W oriented zones that follow the main principal axes of the valley. To investigate the structure of the permafrost and shallower crustal layers,  as well as the preferential path controlling the multigas emissions, the geochemical surveys have been complemented, for the first time in this area, by passive seismic observations. To do that, a passive seismic experiment was carried out between December 24, 2024, and January 23, 2025, using an array of 15 three-component nodal sensors deployed in the central portion of the Lower Taylor Valley. The array geometry was designed in a spiral configuration to enhance azimuthal coverage, reaching a maximum aperture of 1.5 km. Despite the severe Antarctic environmental conditions, we successfully recorded about 25 days of continuous seismic data, constructing thus a dataset of high-quality recordings. Preliminary analyses revealed coherent seismic arrivals consistently recorded across the array. The signals are characterized by regular, high-frequency repeating peaks in the seismograms and were interpreted as icequakes originating from the Commonwealth Glacier at the northern boundary of the valley. Additionally, we also identified a variation in signal amplitude and frequency content among stations, suggesting a possible difference in local environmental conditions or subsurface properties affecting the seismic signal.

How to cite: Baccheschi, P., Hailemikael, S., Sciarra, A., Wilson, G. S., Florindo, F., Beagley, J., Mazzoli, C., Davidson, L., Berquist, C., and Ruggiero, L.: Seismological and Geochemical Monitoring of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Lower Taylor Valley (McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10323, 2026.

EGU26-10685 | Posters on site | SM1.1

Interlacing ruptures of the 2024 Wushi Mw 7.0 earthquake (Chinese Tian Shan) revealed by dense seismic array observations 

Xinzhong Yin, Tao Li, Huawei Cui, Jiuhui Chen, Jie Chen, and Biao Guo

The 22 January 2024 Mw 7.0 Wushi earthquake (WSEQ) struck the Wushi Basin along the southern margin of the Tian Shan, Xinjiang, China. As the largest earthquake in the region since the 1992 Mw 7.3 Suusamyr earthquake (Kyrgyzstan), the WSEQ is among the few large earthquakes captured by high-quality observational datasets—including the earthquake early warning network operated by China Earthquake Administration before and a dense temporary seismic array deployed immediately after the mainshock in the Tian Shan region. This provides a rare opportunity to investigate fault network activation and rupture behavior in the tectonically active southern Tian Shan.

We picked and associated Pg/Sg phases using a neural network and the REAL method, respectively, followed by relocating all events via NonLinLoc and the double-difference relocation method. Focal mechanisms were also determined for aftershocks with M ≥4.

Our results are as follows: 1) The seismogenic fault of the WSEQ strikes northwest, correponding to a moderately-dipping, oblique-reverse main-fault rupture; 2) The mainshock triggered reactivation of a series of small-scale faults, and aftershock distribution is closely linked to these active faults in the study area; 3) Aftershocks are concentrated on subfaults rather than the main fault; and a shallowly buried subfault produced distinct surface rupture whereas the main fault is completely blind. This fault network, misaligned with the prevailing background stress field, likely forms through a reactivation of inherited weak planes.

These results illustrate that structural inheritance strongly controls fault geometric architecture and underscores the complexity of seismic activity and rupture behavior within the active fault network.

How to cite: Yin, X., Li, T., Cui, H., Chen, J., Chen, J., and Guo, B.: Interlacing ruptures of the 2024 Wushi Mw 7.0 earthquake (Chinese Tian Shan) revealed by dense seismic array observations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10685, 2026.

Türkiye is one of the most seismically active regions due to the complex tectonic collisions relative to the Eurasian, African, and Arabian plates in the Eastern Mediterranean region. These tectonic motions have formed two major strike-slip structures: the right-lateral North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) and the left-lateral East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ). The province of Sındırgı-Balıkesir is located in the southern Marmara region at central-western Türkiye. It is positioned near the southern branches of the NAFZ and the Aegean graben system, where extensional forces in Western Anatolia are observed. In this region, the active faults generally exhibit NE-SW and NW-SE orientations. On October 27, 2025, a magnitude, Mw 6.0 earthquake occurred in Sındırgı-Aktaş near Balıkesir. Understanding the source characteristics of this event is crucial for defining the local fault mechanisms and tectonics, improving seismic hazard and risk assessments, and performing more accurate ground motion analyses in this region. This study aims to resolve the source parameters and rupture characteristics of this earthquake. The seismological waveform data retrieved from the national networks. operated by Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) and Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI). The earthquake source parameters were estimated using the ISOLA software package. To achieve high precision in estimating the seismic moment and focal mechanism, both point-source and potentially multiple-source inversions are performed. This comparison aims to better characterize the fault behaviour within the Sındırgı segment with respect to previously published PDE reports in the region.

How to cite: Küçük, D. and Taymaz, T.: Source Characteristics of the 27 October 2025 Mw 6.0 Sındırgı-Balıkesir Earthquake Sequence in Western Türkiye, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10736, 2026.

EGU26-10804 | Posters on site | SM1.1

Observation and analysis of core and secondary teleseismic phases at broadband stations in Germany using array methods 

Thomas Plenefisch, Stefanie Donner, Peter Gaebler, Gernot Hartmann, Ole Roß, Klaus Stammler, and Andreas Steinberg

In its routine analysis the Federal Seismological Survey at BGR evaluates local seismic earthquakes in Germany as well as teleseismic events. For the analysis of teleseismic events we use the seismic stations in Germany and in some cases stations from surrounding countries. Because the stations are far from the events, we apply array methods (f-k analysis) to identify distinct seismic phases and locate events. We use waveforms of the densely spaced Gräfenberg array sites (GRF) with an interstation distance of 10 to 15 km or of the large aperture German Regional Seismic Network (GRSN) stations if coherent phase picking is possible.
The majority of detected and evaluated phases are first-arriving phases, such as P phases and, at more distant epicentre distances, Pdiff and PKP phases. However, in the case of stronger events, we can also detect later phases, such as PP, PS, SS, PcP, ScS, SKS and others. These secondary phases are identified well via slowness, azimuth and travel time.
Here, we show some striking examples with PKP phases as well as later phases.
Events with PKP phases are numerous and mostly located within the subduction zones at Fiji and Tonga. Due to the epicentral distances of around 145 degrees the German stations are close to the caustic of PKP branches. Therefore, PKPdf, PKPbc, and PKPab often show strong amplitudes. In some cases all three branches as well as their corresponding depth phases are visible and can be picked.
Some of the later phases, such as SKP, are rarely observed. We investigate to what extent the magnitude, the focal depth and also the focal mechanism are responsible for the amplitude of the phase and thus for their visibility at German stations. In order to determine the influence of the focal mechanism, we use the solutions of international agencies and calculate radiation coefficients for the respective phase in the direction of the stations under consideration. This approach may help to decide whether an observed depth phase is a pP or sP phase, for example, and thus enables a better depth determination.
Another special feature are very late phases, such as PKKP. They run on the long path around the Earth to the station and have an azimuth shifted by 180 degrees to the short path. These phases may be misinterpreted as independent events. Here, we show an example.

How to cite: Plenefisch, T., Donner, S., Gaebler, P., Hartmann, G., Roß, O., Stammler, K., and Steinberg, A.: Observation and analysis of core and secondary teleseismic phases at broadband stations in Germany using array methods, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10804, 2026.

EGU26-11035 | ECS | Posters on site | SM1.1

 The Crustal Structure in the Hälsingland Region, Central Sweden, and Implications for Seismotectonics 

Esra Ak, Christian Schiffer, Björn Lund, and Gunnar Eggertsson

The Hälsingland region in central Sweden, within the Proterozoic Fennoscandian Shield, lies near a transition from relatively shallow Moho depths (<45 km) in the west to deeper Moho depths (>50 km) in the east. The region lies close to a broad east-west transition in lower-crustal seismic velocities reported in regional models. Furthermore, it is a seismically active region, host the southernmost surface scarp of a glacially triggered fault identified in Sweden, and therefore, represents a region of elevated seismic hazard. The reason for the elevated seismicity in the region is unknown, but it has been proposed that it is hosted by the postulated Hudiksvall fault crossing the region with an NNE-SSW orientation.

In this study, we employ inversion of teleseismic receiver functions (RFs) and apparent S-wave velocity (Vs_app) for 45 available permanent and temporary seismological stations between approximately 60–63°N to map key crustal discontinuities in the region, including the boundary between upper and lower crust, the thickness of high-velocity lower crust (HVLC), and the Moho depth.

We compare the crustal model to Bouguer gravity, aeromagnetic data, and seismicity, allowing us to test candidate structures that may correlate with the occurrence of earthquakes, such as the reported NNE–SSW-trending geophysical anomaly that has been interpreted as a possible crustal boundary and the postulated NW-dipping, NNE-striking Hudiksvall fault previously inferred from 3D geophysical-geological modelling. On a regional scale, our model is consistent with previous crustal models, showing thickening of the crust to the east and south. However, the increased station density due to new data from temporary stations in the area reveals finer-scale details. Comparison with the Swedish National Seismic Network earthquake catalogue shows that clusters of seismicity in the study area tend to occur preferentially near depth changes in crustal discontinuities. Most prominently, the seismicity localizes along the greatest change in crustal thickness, as well as upper crustal thickness while the relationship with lower crustal thickness is more complex. Our preliminary analysis suggests that seismicity is focused along major changes in crustal architecture. Whether these changes in crustal structure are related to the postulated Hudiksvall Fault can currently not be determined.

How to cite: Ak, E., Schiffer, C., Lund, B., and Eggertsson, G.:  The Crustal Structure in the Hälsingland Region, Central Sweden, and Implications for Seismotectonics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11035, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11035, 2026.

According to the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC), an MS6.8 earthquake occurred in Dingri County, Tibet Autonomous Region, China, on January 7, 2025, with a focal depth of 10 km. The epicenter was located in the southern part of the Tibetan Plateau. Due to the northward push of the Indian Plate, a series of north-south trending rifts have formed within the block containing the epicenter. The seismogenic fault is identified as the Dengmocuo Fault in the southern segment of the Shenzha-Dinggye Rift. Within one week after the mainshock, 55 earthquakes of MS≥3.0 were recorded, including one aftershock of MS≥5.0—an MS 5.0 event on January 13th. Focal mechanism solutions from different institutions consistently indicate that the mainshock was an extensional rupture event with a nearly north-south striking plane, essentially consistent with the trend of the Shenzha-Dinggye Rift. Based on the CENC catalog, earthquakes of ML≥3.0 within the aftershock zone are overall distributed along a north-south orientation. The epicentral distribution map shows that, bounded by latitudes 28.8°N and 28.6°N, the aftershock zone can be divided into three main areas: northern, central, and southern. The mainshock is located in the southern area. ML≥3.0 aftershocks are primarily distributed in the northern and southern areas, with fewer and more scattered events in the central area.

We collected waveform data for earthquakes of M≥3.0 within the aftershock zone from January 7 to 14. After quality screening, we determined the focal mechanism solutions for moderate and small earthquakes based on P-wave first motions, obtaining solutions for a total of 30 events. The results show that the focal mechanisms in the northern and central areas are predominantly strike-slip, although the number of solutions from the central area is limited. The focal mechanisms in the southern area are relatively complex, mainly characterized by extension with a subordinate strike-slip component. Subsequently, we inverted the regional stress field. Given that the aftershocks are basically aligned north-south with a narrow east-west distribution, we calculated the stress field from south to north at intervals of 0.2 degrees using a radius of 20 km. The calculation results show that the orientation of the maximum principal compressive stress (σ1) within the aftershock zone is essentially north-south, indicating that the overall rupture is dominated by east-west extension. Furthermore, the R-values from north to south are 0.8, 0.5, 0.1, and 0.2, respectively. This reveals a gradational stress pattern across the entire aftershock zone: "strong compression in the north → weak planar stress in the central area → weak compression in the south," with no abrupt changes. This suggests that the post-mainshock stress adjustment is continuous and controlled by the regional tectonic setting, with no significant stress discontinuity. A transition in the stress state from compression in the north to extension in the south is observed.

How to cite: Ma, Y. and Wang, Y.: Study on the Stress Characteristics of the Aftershock Sequence of the 2025 Dingri, Tibet MS6.8 Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11123, 2026.

EGU26-11569 | ECS | Posters on site | SM1.1 | Highlight

 Why is Eeyore talking about earthquakes? The fascinating seismology story behind Winnie-the-Pooh  

Iris van Zelst, Karen Lythgoe, Amy Gilligan, and Jenny Jenkins

In the classic children's story “The House At Pooh Corner” by A. A. Milne (1928), Eeyore is relieved that there has not been an earthquake lately in the Hundred Acre Wood. This statement has a seismological story behind it that we present here, such that other seismologists may use it in their seismology science communication efforts. We also have a corresponding science communication project ourselves: The Science Storyteller (see EOS2.1).  

Milne's Winnie-the-Pooh stories are largely autobiographical and inspired by the imaginary adventures of his son, Christopher Robin, and his stuffed animals. The book therefore takes place in Sussex (UK), where Milne lived. Large earthquakes are not common in the UK. Why then, is Eeyore talking about them? 

Diving into the historical earthquake databases of the UK (British Geological Survey) reveals that several earthquakes occurred in the region a couple of years before the publication of this second Winnie-the-Pooh novel. Three events are of particular interest: a 1926 Ml4.8 event in Ludlow, West Midlands, and Ml5.5 and Ml5.4 events in 1926 and 1927, respectively, near the Channel Islands. Calculating the intensity attenuation in the UK on the European Macroseismic Scale (Grünthal, 1998) reveals that the 1926 Ludlow and 1926, 1927 Channel Islands earthquakes could have been felt in Sussex (intensity 2.8, 3.6, and 3.5, respectively). Historical data also reveals a recording of intensity 5 in West Sussex for the Ml5.5 Channel Islands earthquake (Amorèse et al., 2020). The repeated and higher intensity Channel Islands events are therefore the most likely earthquakes to be felt by Milne.  Earthquakes in this intraplate setting are rare and likely due to reactivation of existing faults due to distant regional stresses. Eeyore's worry about the next earthquake is therefore fully justified - revealing a titbit of seismology history in this beloved story.  

 

References  

Amorèse, D., Benjumea, J., & Cara, M. (2020). Source parameters of the 1926 and 1927 Jersey earthquakes from historical, instrumental, and macroseismic data. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 300, 106420. 

Grünthal, G. (1998). European macroseismic scale 1998 (EMS-98). 

How to cite: van Zelst, I., Lythgoe, K., Gilligan, A., and Jenkins, J.:  Why is Eeyore talking about earthquakes? The fascinating seismology story behind Winnie-the-Pooh , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11569, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11569, 2026.

EGU26-11610 | Orals | SM1.1

Stress model of California: Fault–stress interactions across a complex plate boundary system from focal mechanisms of small earthquakes 

Yifang Cheng, Roland Bürgmann, Taka’aki Taira, Zonghu Liao, and Richard Allen

California, located along the transform boundary between the Pacific and North American plates, hosts a complex fault system, a long history of damaging earthquakes, and frequent small earthquakes. While earthquakes arise from the buildup and release of elastic stress, detailed knowledge of principal stress orientations, absolute stress magnitudes, and fault instability remains limited. Understanding stress distribution and its interaction with faults is key to assessing tectonic evolution and seismic hazards. Here we obtain 810,562 high-quality focal mechanisms in California combining machine-learning-based phase pickers and REFOC algorithm, representing 51.5% of all relocated earthquakes from 1981 to 2021. These mechanisms enable us to invert for 2D and 3D stress models of California’s crust, including principal stress orientations, faulting style, R-ratio, and fault instability (how close each fault’s orientation is to optimal failure) for 350 major faults. The results reveal a heterogeneous stress field: transpressional regimes dominate the northern and central San Andreas Fault (SAF) system, strike-slip regimes dominate the southern SAF system, and transtensional regimes prevail in the Walker Lane and Eastern California Shear Zone. Stress rotations over ~50 km are closely related to fault geometry, interactions, and strain partitioning. Most faults with low instability are either less optimally oriented to fail under the background stress field or located in areas with recent major ruptures. These findings underscore the tight coupling between stress and fault systems in California and the value of continuous stress monitoring and improved modeling for time-dependent seismic hazard assessments and understanding ongoing tectonic processes.

How to cite: Cheng, Y., Bürgmann, R., Taira, T., Liao, Z., and Allen, R.: Stress model of California: Fault–stress interactions across a complex plate boundary system from focal mechanisms of small earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11610, 2026.

EGU26-11852 | ECS | Orals | SM1.1

Relocation of a reference seismic events catalog: influence of 1D and 3D velocity models and location methods 

Laëtitia Pantobe, Gilles Mazet-Roux, Laurent Bollinger, Amaury Vallage, Michaël Bertin, and Jérome Vergne

Earthquake locations derived from seismic phase arrival times are highly dependent on the velocity model used to predict theoretical travel times. In operational monitoring, simplified 1D velocity models are commonly used to ensure rapid processing, but such approximations may introduce systematic biases in hypocentral estimations, particularly in regions characterized by strong lateral heterogeneities. This issue is especially relevant in mainland France, where complex crustal structure challenges standard localization strategies.

In this study, we focus on quantifying the impact of different velocity models on earthquake locations, with particular emphasis on the contribution of a national 3D velocity model derived from passive seismic imagery. To minimize the influence of network geometry and isolate the effect of velocity structure, we rely on a high-quality reference catalog extracted from more than 88 000 seismic events reported in the CEA catalog since 1963 (Mazet-Roux, 2025). Event selection is based on Ground Truth (GT) criteria, which assess epicentral location accuracy solely from network geometry (Bondár et al., 2001; Bondár et McLaughlin, 2009). The 22 000 events satisfying the GT5 95% criteria, associated with an epicentral accuracy better than 5 km with a 95% confidence level, define our reference event set.

We relocate this reference catalog using two advanced location algorithms capable of incorporating complex velocity structures. NonLinLoc performs a fully probabilistic search of the solution space and estimates full hypocentral uncertainty distributions (Lomax, 2008; Lomax et al., 2009), while iLoc applies a hybrid, iterative approach optimized for high-precision earthquake location (Bondár and McLaughlin, 2009; Bondár and Storchak, 2011). These methods are first compared using a common 1D velocity model (. The impact of a regional 3D velocity model, obtained through the homogenization of multiple regional models constrained by passive seismic tomography (Arroucau, 2020; Arroucau et al., 2021), is then assessed using the probabilistic NonLinLoc approach.

Regardless of the location algorithm or velocity model considered, more than 95% of the reference events exhibit epicentral differences smaller than 5 km, reflecting the robustness of the GT-based event selection. The differences mainly concern depth estimates and the associated uncertainties.

Indeed, using a common 1D velocity model, significant differences arise in depth determination and associated uncertainties. NonLinLoc systematically converges toward free-depth solutions with quantified uncertainties, whereas iLoc fixes the depth for more than 55% of the events when depth is poorly constrained.

The introduction of the 3D velocity model leads to systematic changes in hypocentral depths, with inversions yielding statistically deeper events on average and uncertainty ellipses becoming better constrained compared to 1D velocity model, despite a slight statistical increase in depth uncertainty for reference events. Differences in depth uncertainties seem to reveal regional variability and possible dependence on event depth. Comparisons with well-documented seismic sequences and previous studies are discussed to better interpret the observed differences between velocity models.

How to cite: Pantobe, L., Mazet-Roux, G., Bollinger, L., Vallage, A., Bertin, M., and Vergne, J.: Relocation of a reference seismic events catalog: influence of 1D and 3D velocity models and location methods, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11852, 2026.

EGU26-11950 | Posters on site | SM1.1

Local earthquake and ambient noise tomography of the northern Iberian Peninsula and Pyrenees  

Antonio Villaseñor and Sébastien Chevrot

We present new three-dimensional P- and S-wave velocity models of the northern Iberian Peninsula and Pyrenees using arrival times of local earthquakes and seismic ambient noise.

The arrival time dataset has been built in two steps. First, we have merged the existing seismic bulletins of permanent seismic networks in the region (IGN, ICGC, OMP). Second, we have compiled continuous waveforms of all temporary experiments in the region from 2010 to present and have been automatically picked using the deep-learning picker PhaseNet, substantially increasing data coverage in regions with sparse permanent instrumentation. Using this augmented arrival time dataset, we have inverted it simultaneously for P and S wave velocity structure and earthquake relocation. Since the region is too large for the flat-earth approximation used in the tomography code we have obtained multiple overlapping smaller models and calculated the final model by averaging the individual models.

To further enhance structural resolution, particularly in areas with limited earthquake ray coverage, we incorporated results from ambient noise tomography based on inter-station surface-wave dispersion measurements. These data provide complementary constraints on the shallow crust and improve lateral continuity of the velocity model, especially in aseismic regions and across major sedimentary basins.

The obtained P and S wave velocity models provide detailed images of the subsurface structure of the region, including parts that were poorly imaged before. The addition of arrival times picked at temporary stations has been of fundamental importance to illuminate the central part of the region, because of its low seismic activity and lack of permanent stations. Particularly well imaged are the sedimentary basins, including the southern Aquitaine basin, and the northern Ebro and Duero basins and their connection along the Rioja Trough.

How to cite: Villaseñor, A. and Chevrot, S.: Local earthquake and ambient noise tomography of the northern Iberian Peninsula and Pyrenees , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11950, 2026.

Repetitive rupture of the same asperity has been documented in various tectonic settings through the observation of highly correlated waveforms from co-located earthquakes. These events, known as repeaters, are of particular interest because they provide key constraints on small-scale fault processes and can be used to investigate slip rates on faults, aseismic deformation, earthquake nucleation... In fewer cases, highly similar earthquakes exhibiting polarity inversions at all recording stations have been identified. These so-called anti-repeaters are thought to rupture the same asperity with an inverted focal mechanism and are associated with specific driving processes. To our knowledge, no intermediate case involving rupture of the same asperity with a change in slip direction (rake) has been reported, despite the fact that such a scenario is theoretically plausible.

In this study, we search for such events within the aftershock sequence of the M7.1 Miyagi-Oki earthquake (26 May 2003), in the northeastern Japan subduction zone. This intermediate-depth intraslab sequence (70 km depth) exhibits a high seismicity rate and is well recorded by a dense seismic network. Using data from the 17 closest three-component broadband stations, we compute waveform coherence, cross-correlation and anti-correlation (flipped traces) for both P and S waves of close event pairs. We identify 40 pairs of highly similar earthquakes displaying polarity inversions at several (but not all) stations. After performing relative hypocenter relocation using correlation-derived time delays, we retain ten co-located pairs with high-quality waveform similarity and polarity inversion. By comparing measured amplitude ratios with synthetic radiation pattern ratios, we invert the rake change for each event pair.

At this stage, the physical mechanism responsible for this newly identified class of similar earthquakes, that we name ‘rake-changing repeaters’, is uncertain. A change in rake between successive ruptures of the same asperity likely reflects a highly localised modification of the stress field. It could be driven by transient pore-fluid pressure variations or stress perturbations induced with nearby moderate slip. The identification of rake-changing repeaters opens new perspectives for investigating the complexity of local faulting processes at depth, and complements existing insights from repeaters and anti-repeaters.

How to cite: Costes, L., Marsan, D., and Gardonio, B.: Rake-changing repeaters : a new class of co-localised similar earthquakes with both correlated and anti-correlated waveforms, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12485, 2026.

EGU26-12709 | ECS | Posters on site | SM1.1

Global full-waveform inversion using a surface wave orbital 

Carl Josef Schiller, Scott Keating, Michael Afanasiev, Patrick Marty, and Andreas Fichtner

Full-waveform inversion (FWI) has matured over the last decade to produce high-resolution global wavespeed models down to minimum periods of 30 s. While current models agree on large scales, they exhibit structural differences at shorter wavelengths depending on the assimilated data and inversion strategy. REVEAL is a global-scale FWI model utilizing a multi-scale, whole-waveform inversion strategy. To mitigate cycle-skipping, data is incrementally bandpass-filtered and inverted from long to short periods. Currently, REVEAL inverts all phase windows in 1-hour seismograms; this conservatively preserves known body-wave structure while incorporating new surface wave structure.

However, the use of 1-hour seismograms limits the model's sensitivity to the Southern Hemisphere, where receiver density is significantly lower than in the Northern Hemisphere. To address this, we present preliminary work on a next-generation model that incorporates 3.5-hour seismograms. These longer time series capture both minor- and major-arc surface wave arrivals. Including major-arc waves (epicentral distances > 180°) significantly increases sensitivity to structure in the Southern Hemisphere. Starting from the current REVEAL model, we revise the long-period structure (60–200 s) using a multi-scale approach, beginning with 100–200 s and terminating at 60–200 s. We simulate full viscoelastic wavefields using the spectral-element solver Salvus on global fourth-order cubed-sphere meshes. Adjoint sources are calculated using a time-frequency phase misfit, and optimization is performed via mini-batch stochastic trust-region L-BFGS.

How to cite: Schiller, C. J., Keating, S., Afanasiev, M., Marty, P., and Fichtner, A.: Global full-waveform inversion using a surface wave orbital, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12709, 2026.

EGU26-13130 | ECS | Orals | SM1.1

Sensitivity Kernels for Earthquake Coda-Correlation Wavefield Features and Applications to Global Seismology  

Zhi Wei, Sheng Wang, Thanh-Son Phạm, and Hrvoje Tkalčić

The global coda-correlation wavefield is a mathematical representation of the seismic wavefield generated by large earthquakes, computed by cross-correlating the long-lasting coda waves recorded by a worldwide network of seismometers. Unlike the common assumptions that the cross-correlation functions are Green’s functions between station pairs, earthquake coda-correlation features arise from cross-terms of in reverberating body waves of common slowness that share common slowness characteristics a subset of propagation legs (e.g., Hrvoje & Phạm, 2018; Phạm et al., 2018). This wavefield has offered new constrains on the deep Earth's interior (e.g., Hrvoje & Phạm, 2018; Ma & Tkalčić, 2024). However, quantitative interpretation of these features for tomographic imaging has been hindered by the lack of distributed sensitivity kernels relating observed correlation signals to Earth structure heterogeneities.

In this study, we develop a forward modeling framework for the earthquake coda-correlation wavefield bypassing conventional cross-correlation of late-coda waveforms. The forward-modeled correlograms reproduce features obtained through conventional stacking with a significantly improved signal-to-noise ratio. Building on this framework, we derive finite-frequency traveltime banana-doughnut sensitivity kernels using adjoint methods (e.g., Tromp et al., 2010; Fichtner, 2014), which quantify how traveltime measurements of correlation features depend on perturbations in P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity, and density.

We compute sensitivity kernels for prominent correlation features (P*, ScS*, and others) at station separations ranging from 30° to 180°. The kernels reveal extensive sampling of Earth's mantle, outer core, and inner core, with spatial-sensitivity patterns fundamentally different from those of body waves in direct seismic wavefield. For antipodal station pairs, correlation features exhibit strong sensitivity throughout the deep interior, including regions poorly sampled by traditional seismic phases. Our results confirm that correlation features form through constructive interference of body-wave pairs with similar slowness, rather than representing Green's functions between station pairs.

This work establishes the theoretical foundation for coda-correlation tomography, enabling future three-dimensional imaging of Earth’s internal structure with unprecedented sampling of the deep interior. The sensitivity kernels provide a pathway to exploit the wealth of information contained in earthquake coda for high-resolution mantle and core tomography.

Reference
Ma, X. & Tkalčić, H. (2024) Low seismic velocity torus in the Earth's outer core: Evidence from the coda correlation wavefield, Sci. Adv., 10, 35, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adn55.

Fichtner, A. (2014). Source and processing effects on noise correlations. Geophys. J. Int., 197(3), 1527-1531. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggu093 

Phạm, T-S., Tkalčić, H., Sambridge, M. & Kennett, B.L.N. (2018) The Earth's correlation wavefield: late coda correlation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, https://doi.org/10.1002/2018GL077244.

Tkalčić, H., & Phạm, T.-S. (2018). Shear properties of Earth's inner core constrained by a detection of J waves in global correlation wavefield. Science, 362, 329. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau7649

Tromp, J., Luo, Y., Hanasoge, S., & Peter, D. (2010). Noise cross-correlation sensitivity kernels. Geophys. J. Int.,183(2), 791-819. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04721.x 

How to cite: Wei, Z., Wang, S., Phạm, T.-S., and Tkalčić, H.: Sensitivity Kernels for Earthquake Coda-Correlation Wavefield Features and Applications to Global Seismology , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13130, 2026.

Two earthquakes with Mw 6.1 occurred in Sındırgı–Balıkesir, western Türkiye, within a few months (10 August 2025 and 27 October 2025). This short time separation provides a valuable opportunity to compare spatiotemporal changes in post-event seismicity and faulting parameters under broadly similar regional conditions, while also allowing potential differences in detection capability and catalogue completeness between the two periods to be handled explicitly.

In this study, a homogenised regional earthquake catalogue is analyzed within an explicit magnitude-of-completeness (Mc) framework to minimize bias arising from temporal variations in detectability when comparing the two post-event periods. Completeness is assessed in a time-dependent manner, and all subsequent analyses are conditioned on the estimated Mc to ensure a like-for-like comparison between the August and October sequences. The aftershock sequences are examined in both space and time, spatiotemporal clustering and migration patterns are evaluated from the mapped aftershock distributions, while temporal decay is characterized using the Omori–Utsu law by estimating and comparing sequence-specific decay parameters. In parallel, b-values are estimated from the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distribution and their spatial variations are evaluated to identify potential heterogeneity in the post-event stress state and rupture environment across the source region.

To link seismicity patterns with faulting behaviour, focal-mechanism solutions are used to determine the dominant faulting styles, the principal P- and T-axis orientations, and the regional stress regime associated with each sequence. The joint interpretation of aftershock decay, b-value variability, and mechanism-derived faulting characteristics provides an integrated, catalogue-consistent comparison of post-event behaviour for the August and October 2025 earthquakes, and yields a consolidated description of how seismicity and faulting evolve in the Sındırgı region of western Türkiye following closely spaced moderate–large events.

How to cite: Tamtaş, B. D.: Seismicity characteristics of Sındırgı-Balıkesir in western Türkiye in the context of the 10 August 2025 (Mw=6.1) and 27 October 2025 (Mw=6.1) earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13613, 2026.

EGU26-13717 | ECS | Orals | SM1.1

High-Resolution Crustal Imaging of Afghanistan from Earthquake Inter-Event Interferometry 

Mohsen Kazemnia Kakhki, Götz Bokelmann, Taghi Shirzad, Ahmad Sadidkhouy, and Clement Esteve

High-resolution imaging of crustal structure is critical for understanding deformation processes, lithospheric rheology, and seismic hazard in continental collision zones. Afghanistan and its surrounding regions lie at the junction of the Indian, Eurasian, and Arabian plates, hosting diverse tectonic environments that include major strike-slip fault systems, thick foreland and intracontinental basins, hot orogenic cores, and ongoing continental subduction beneath the Hindu Kush. Despite frequent damaging earthquakes, existing seismic velocity models are limited by sparse station coverage and the sensitivity of conventional methods to long wavelengths or near-vertical ray paths, resulting in poor resolution at seismogenic depths. Here, we address these limitations using earthquake inter-event interferometry, which exploits dense inter-source ray coverage to enhance lateral resolution in regions with uneven seismic networks and provides new constraints on crustal structure across Afghanistan and adjacent areas.

We analyzed a high-quality regional dataset of earthquakes recorded between 2006 and 2019 across Afghanistan, eastern Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Vertical-component seismograms were processed to retrieve empirical Green’s functions from both earthquake–station surface waves and inter-event correlations of Rayleigh-wave coda. Inter-event interferometry was applied under stationary-phase and minimum-separation conditions, and all paths were stacked using phase-weighted stacking to enhance signal coherence. Rayleigh-wave group velocities were measured with a multiple-filter technique and inverted for period-dependent two-dimensional group-velocity maps using fast-marching surface-wave tomography, with regularization optimized through L-curve analysis and resolution assessed by checkerboard tests. Local dispersion curves were then inverted for one-dimensional shear-wave velocity profiles and assembled into a quasi-three-dimensional Vs model extending to ~60 km depth.

The resulting shear-wave velocity model reveals pronounced lateral and vertical heterogeneity that closely tracks major tectonic provinces. Foreland and intracontinental basins appear as shallow low-velocity domains reflecting thick, weakly consolidated sediments, with contrasting depth evolution between rapidly strengthening foreland crust and basins that retain mid-crustal weakening near major fault systems. The Pamir and western Himalayan collision zone is characterized by a strong upper crust overlying laterally extensive middle- to lower-crustal low velocities, interpreted as thermally and fluid-weakened thickened crust associated with shortening, partial melting, and ductile flow. Farther east, the Hindu Kush exhibits narrow, localized low-velocity anomalies vertically linked to intense intermediate-depth seismicity, consistent with fluid-controlled weakening above the north-dipping Indian lithosphere. To the south, the Makran subduction zone forms the most vertically continuous low-velocity system, extending from the shallow accretionary prism to Moho-proximal depths and reflecting thick sediment accumulation, underplating, hydration, and high pore-fluid pressures above the subducting Arabian plate, bounded by a cold, mechanically strong backstop at the Sistan–Makran transition.

This study presents the first regional application of earthquake inter-event interferometry in Afghanistan, providing new constraints on crustal rheology, fault and suture architecture, and an improved seismic velocity framework for geodynamic analysis, earthquake location, and hazard assessment in a complex continental collision zone.

How to cite: Kazemnia Kakhki, M., Bokelmann, G., Shirzad, T., Sadidkhouy, A., and Esteve, C.: High-Resolution Crustal Imaging of Afghanistan from Earthquake Inter-Event Interferometry, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13717, 2026.

EGU26-14941 | Posters on site | SM1.1

Continuous Seismic Observation under Extreme Environmental Conditions  

Badr Alameri, Khalifa Alebri, Mouloud Hamidatou, Ahmed Alkaabi, and Ali Megahed

Jointly with the 33rd expedition of Bulgarian Antarctica institution, the National Center of Meteorology (United Arab Emirates) installed its first broadband seismic station in Livingstone Island in Antarctica. This deployment aims to detect earthquakes, ice sheet dynamics, and volcanic activities. In addition to the exciting seismic stations on the island, the seismic installation includes two advanced seismometers, Trillium 120 and Trillium 40 (Nanometric), to accurately detect local, regional and tele seismic events.

The seismic station will be added value to the existing networks on the island as well as covering the gap analysis for more accurate data collection. In addition, since the station located near to active volcanic eruption (Deception Island), It will provide crucial data to interpret the interactions between seismic, cryosphere changes, and volcanic activities.

The project highlights continuous and reliable seismic recording in harsh polar environments. During the Bulgarian Expedition 34 (2025–2026), the data were collected and analyzed, demonstrating that there were no gaps or interruptions throughout the entire year of 2025.

The station is expected to become a vital tool for future studies, potentially integrating high-resolution seismic monitoring with glaciological and meteorological data collection. This comprehensive approach will enhance our understanding of the dynamic relationships among tectonic, cryosphere, and volcanic processes.

How to cite: Alameri, B., Alebri, K., Hamidatou, M., Alkaabi, A., and Megahed, A.: Continuous Seismic Observation under Extreme Environmental Conditions , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14941, 2026.

Seismological signatures of aseismic slip include tectonic tremors, repeating earthquakes, and earthquake swarms. They are most commonly documented in subduction margins, where their depth distribution and temporal behavior reflect slab geometry, fluid release, and plate interface rheology. Their occurrence in continental collision belts, however, remains unclear. Taiwan provides a unique natural laboratory to address this gap. Here we investigate how earthquake swarms interact with repeating earthquakes (REs) and tectonic tremors, and how their coupling varies with depth along the west-dipping Central Range Fault.
Using a 24-year seismic catalog, we show that tremors (mostly >25 km), REs (15–25 km), and swarms (<20 km) align spatially along the same fault system but exhibit distinct recurrence behaviors and interaction thresholds. We find that temporal interaction among these phenomena is strongly depth-dependent and controlled by spatial overlap. Swarms and REs display the strongest coupling within shared fault segments, consistent with asperities being repeatedly loaded by surrounding aseismic creep and transient slip-rate accelerations, supported by the rapid diffusivity of catalogued swarms (several m²/s). In contrast, tremors occur in the lower crust under near-critical frictional conditions and generally interact with seismogenic activity only during periods of elevated aseismic slip, most notably following M6-class earthquakes. Tremors alone exhibit strong tidal modulation (~90% during increasing tidal levels), indicating markedly higher stress sensitivity at depth. Elevated Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs ratios further delineate a high-stiffness, high–pore-fluid-pressure lower-crustal environment that enables tremor generation beneath the mountain root. Overall, these observations indicate that swarms, REs, and tremors represent depth-stratified manifestations of aseismic slip, with interaction style and stress sensitivity systematically varying with depth.

How to cite: Peng, W. and Chen, K. H.: Depth-dependent interaction of tectonic tremors, repeating earthquakes, and earthquake swarms in a collision zone of Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15736, 2026.

EGU26-16016 | ECS | Posters on site | SM1.1

Subsurface geometry of the Miryang Fault, southeastern Korean Peninsula, inferred from high-precision earthquake relocation and focal mechanism analysis 

Dabeen Heo, Jongwon Han, Tae-Seob Kang, Seongryong Kim, and Junkee Rhie

The Miryang Fault is an inferred fault located in the southeastern Korean Peninsula and is a part of the Yangsan Fault System, which trends NNE-SSW. Although the Miryang Fault appears as a distinct topographic lineament, its activity and characteristics remain poorly constrained due to a scarcity of direct geological and seismological evidence. We investigated seismic activity along the Miryang Fault to delineate subsurface fault structures using earthquake detection, high-precision hypocenter relocation, and focal mechanism analysis. We employed energy-ratio-based automatic detection and determined relative hypocenter locations using the double-difference method. Focal mechanism solutions were derived using P-wave first-motion polarities. Epicenters are concentrated to the west of the surface trace of the Miryang Fault and generally align with its strike. The hypocenters exhibit a strongly linear spatial distribution, distinctively separated into northern and southern clusters. The seismicity tends to become more spatially scattered northward, particularly beyond the northern termination of the surface trace of the Miryang Fault. The southern cluster is characterized by a higher frequency of larger earthquakes and a lower Gutenberg–Richter b-value compared to the northern cluster. Focal depths range from 5 to 20 km, with the southern region showing a narrower range and a concentration at greater depths. Principal Component Analysis of the hypocentral distribution reveals that the fault geometries for both clusters trend NNE-SSW and dip nearly vertically. Both clusters extend approximately 30 km along the strike. Focal mechanisms indicate predominantly dextral strike-slip motion, with strike and dip consistent with the geometry inferred from the spatial distribution. These findings provide new insights into the seismotectonic characteristics of the Miryang Fault and underscore its potential role in the active tectonics of the southeastern Korean Peninsula.

How to cite: Heo, D., Han, J., Kang, T.-S., Kim, S., and Rhie, J.: Subsurface geometry of the Miryang Fault, southeastern Korean Peninsula, inferred from high-precision earthquake relocation and focal mechanism analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16016, 2026.

Dynamic processes operating at continental plate margins, including associated igneous activity, lead to progressive reactivation and modification of the lithosphere and are recorded in the evolving structure of the continental crust. Crustal evolution is strongly controlled by crust–mantle interaction at the Moho, where changes in temperature, composition, and density can be induced by underplating or lithospheric destruction. Consequently, the Moho represents a critical interface at which continental growth, mechanical weakening, and lithospheric removal may occur. Seismic imaging of the uppermost mantle therefore provides direct constraints on the processes governing lithospheric evolution. In this study, we present three-dimensional P- and S-wave tomography of the uppermost mantle beneath the southern Korean Peninsula, derived from Moho-refracted waves. The tomographic models are used to estimate thermal and compositional variations by comparing observed seismic velocities with petrological predictions. A basalt–harzburgite mechanical mixture (MM) was adopted as the baseline model, while an equilibrium assemblage (EA) and an orthopyroxene (Opx)-enriched mantle were additionally considered to evaluate the effects of compositional variability on seismic velocities.

The results showed pronounced regional contrasts in seismic velocity, temperature, and composition. The Gyeonggi Massif and Gyeongsang Basin are characterized by relatively low Vp (≈7.65 km/s) and low Vp/Vs (≈1.73), consistent with a hot, harzburgite-rich mantle and a thin lithosphere. In contrast, the Yeongnam Massif exhibits high Vp (≈7.89 km/s) and high Vp/Vs (≈1.76), indicating a relatively cold mantle with a higher basaltic fraction (40%) within a thick lithosphere. These characteristics are consistent with independent constraints on lithospheric thickness. The hot and thinned harzburgite-dominated mantle is interpreted as the result of lithospheric modification by delamination or thermal erosion. In contrast, basaltic components preserved within the cold and thick lithosphere are interpreted as basaltic underplating associated with Mesozoic subduction, maintained by a stabilized lithospheric root. However, the combination of low Vp (≈7.65 km/s) and exceptionally low Vp/Vs (≈1.70) observed in the western Gyeonggi Massif cannot be explained by either the MM or EA models, whose minimum Vp/Vs values are 1.74 and 1.73, respectively. This discrepancy requires anomalous mantle conditions, such as strong Opx enrichment or pronounced seismic anisotropy. Despite their close spatial proximity, these contrasting mantle properties indicate that distinct geological processes operated beneath different regions of the Korean Peninsula during the Mesozoic–Cenozoic, and that the resulting thermal and compositional signatures are preserved in the uppermost mantle.

How to cite: Kim, M., Song, J.-H., and Kim, S.: Crust–Mantle Evolution beneath the Korean Peninsula Constrained by Temperature and Composition Estimated from Uppermost Mantle Tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16313, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16313, 2026.

EGU26-17464 | Orals | SM1.1

The Chilean Mantle Wedge seismicity as a marker for serpentinization. 

Blandine Gardonio, Jannes Münchmeyer, Fabrice Brunet, Nicolás Hernández-Soto, Anne-Line Auzende, and Anne Socquet

The mantle wedge seismicity of the Atacama segment of the Northern Chilean subduction, a region with complex slab geometry, has recently been mapped in a high-density seismicity catalog. In order to better constrain the underlying mechanisms responsible for its occurrence, we investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of the seismicity along the plate interface and within the overriding (upper) plate. We find that the b-value of the mantle wedge seismicity is consistently greater than 1, averaging around 1.5, and that for earthquakes of similar magnitude, there are few, if any, aftershocks in the mantle wedge compared to the interface seismicity. We also estimate the seismic wave velocities Vp and Vs according to the amount of serpentinization and compare to the results of recent high quality tomography images. We estimate that the region of active seismicity, located mainly between 450-550°C isotherms, corresponds to a partially serpentinized part of the mantle wedge while the corner of the cold nose, which corresponds to a fully serpentinized zone, is deprived from earthquakes.

How to cite: Gardonio, B., Münchmeyer, J., Brunet, F., Hernández-Soto, N., Auzende, A.-L., and Socquet, A.: The Chilean Mantle Wedge seismicity as a marker for serpentinization., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17464, 2026.

EGU26-18156 | ECS | Posters on site | SM1.1

Joint inversion of a new global data set of teleseismic P and SV arrival times and the waveforms of surface and regional body waves 

Johannes Stampa, Sergei Lebedev, Thomas Meier, Henk Keers, and Julia Henriksen Krogh

Surface wave tomography yields high resolution models for the seismic velocities
in the earth’s upper mantle. To extend the imaging into the mantle transition
zone and into the lower mantle below, additional constraints from teleseismic
body waves, which probe these deeper regions, are needed. Here, we combine a
large new dataset of teleseismic P and SV travel times obtained via an automatic
picking algorithm (Stampa et al., 2024), with waveform fits from Automated
Multimode Inversion (AMI; e.g. Dou et al. (2024)) in a joint inversion. The
sensitivity volumes for the teleseismic body waves used in the inversion are
approximated using ray tracing in a spherically symmetric background model.
For the P and SV arrival-time data sets, travel-time corrections are calcu-
lated to account for the differences induced by the ellipticity of the earth. The
frequency-dependent effects of anelasticity on the propagation of the teleseismic
waves are estimated and accounted for, using the measured central frequencies
of the waves’ arrivals. Travel time anomalies resulting from crustal structure
are estimated and accounted for using the ECM1 crustal model.
The preliminary results show a marked improvement in the resolution of
structure at depths below 400 km, in particular in regions of dense station
coverage, including Europe, North America, and the subduction zone regions
around the Pacific Ocean.

 

References

Dou, H., Xu, Y., Lebedev, S., de Melo, B. C., van der Hilst, R. D., Wang, B., &
Wang, W., 2024. The upper mantle beneath Asia from seismic tomography,
with inferences for the mechanisms of tectonics, seismicity, and magmatism,
Earth-Science Reviews, 255, 104841.

Stampa, J., Eckel, F., Keers, H., Lebedev, S., Meier, T., & AlpArray and
SWATH-D Working Groups, 2024. Automated measurement of teleseismic
P-, SH-and SV-wave arrival times using autoregressive prediction and the
instantaneous phase of multicomponent waveforms, Geophysical Journal In-
ternational , 239(2), 936–949

How to cite: Stampa, J., Lebedev, S., Meier, T., Keers, H., and Henriksen Krogh, J.: Joint inversion of a new global data set of teleseismic P and SV arrival times and the waveforms of surface and regional body waves, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18156, 2026.

EGU26-18185 | Orals | SM1.1

Using Quantum Annealing for Identifying Plausible Earthquake Rupture Paths in Fault Networks 

Angela Stallone, Marcin Dukalski, Giovanni Diaferia, and Kevin Milner

Earthquake rupture forecasting is a critical component of seismic hazard analysis and requires identifying physically plausible rupture paths across complex fault networks. At its core, this task could be formulated as a large-scale combinatorial optimization problem, which involves selecting an optimal subset of fault segments from a set of candidates. Such problems pose significant challenges for traditional algorithms, as the number of admissible multi-fault ruptures grows combinatorially. Current operational workflows rely on locally applied plausibility filters. While computationally efficient, such greedy local heuristics risk excluding globally competitive rupture scenarios, particularly in regions with dense fault connectivity and competing rupture pathways. 

This work investigates whether quantum annealing hardware can serve as a sampling accelerator for exploring the ensemble of physically plausible ruptures beyond what is currently accessible to classical approaches. Designing a problem formulation that remains scientifically meaningful while respecting the constraints of current quantum hardware (size, noise, etc.) is nontrivial, and naïve encodings often collapse under these limitations. We encode rupture plausibility modeling as low energy solutions to a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) problem defined on a fault-network middle graph. Binary variables represent activated fault segments, while local interaction terms encode Coulomb stress transfer (as a proxy for pairwise rupture compatibility), continuity preferences, and branching behavior. Here, we adopt a classical-quantum hybrid workflow: the quantum annealer is used to sample globally competitive rupture candidates, while classical post-processing implements physical constraints to filter out non-physical ruptures. 

The workflow is demonstrated on a subset of the fault network used in the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model including over 200 fault segments, using both simulated thermal and quantum annealing on D-Wave hardware. Results show that our hardware-aware formulation and conditioning enable robust sampling on comparatively large fault-network instances. Views on quantum computing are polarized: some overstate its power, while others dismiss it as impractical. Our results help bridge this by establishing a concrete, testable pathway for integrating quantum annealing into rupture-modeling workflows on existing purpose-built quantum devices.

—---

This work is supported by the ICSC National Research Centre for High Performance Computing, Big Data and Quantum Computing (CN00000013, CUP D53C22001300005) within the European Union-NextGenerationEU program (National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) - Mission 4 Component 2 Investment 1.4.)

How to cite: Stallone, A., Dukalski, M., Diaferia, G., and Milner, K.: Using Quantum Annealing for Identifying Plausible Earthquake Rupture Paths in Fault Networks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18185, 2026.

EGU26-18563 | Orals | SM1.1

Obspy + WebAssembly: Running AI-Assisted Seismic Analysis in the Browser 

Matthias Meschede, Sylvain Corlay, and Thorsten Beier

We succeeded to run Obspy—the popular seismic Python toolkit—entirely in the browser using WebAssembly and a novel, package distribution called
emscripten-forge. This breakthrough eliminates the need for local installations or complex backends for small to medium sized data.

Now, anyone can perform core seismic data analysis—including reading, processing, and visualizing seismological data—directly in their web browser,
on many devices, from desktops to mobile phones. For developers, Obspy's capacities can be embedded in ordinary static web sites that are highly
scalable, without any complex backend to maintain. Additionally, Large Language Models (LLMs) can command Obspy directly in the browser, allowing to build seismic applications driven by natural language.

The implications are profound. The lack of complex installations, backend maintenance, or specialized deployments, drastically simplifies using and
building seismic data analysis tools. Educators can incorporate hands-on seismology into curricula without technical overhead. Researchers can share
apps or notebooks, and explore data without fighting non-reproducible compute environments. Engineers in remote settings gain access to powerful
analytical tools on mobile devices. Users can interact with seismic data in the browser in natural language, lowering the barrier for non-experts and
professionals alike.

We will demonstrate this with JupyterLite, showcasing a fully functional, Jupyter environment with Obspy and scientific Python tools running completely in the browser, without any server and with LLM assistance. We will also highlight the limitations of in-browser execution, particularly regarding multi-threading, memory constraints and compute overhead. All of the demonstrated technology is open source, published under permissive licenses, and therefore available for anyone to use, modify, and build upon.

How to cite: Meschede, M., Corlay, S., and Beier, T.: Obspy + WebAssembly: Running AI-Assisted Seismic Analysis in the Browser, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18563, 2026.

EGU26-18989 | Posters on site | SM1.1

Mapping the D” Seismic Reflector: Insights from Phase Transition Modelling and Global Seismic Observations 

Julia Pahlings, Christine Houser, John Hernlund, and Christine Thomas

The Core-Mantle Boundary (CMB) is a critical interface influencing
Earth’s thermal and chemical evolution. Among the various features
in the CMB region, the D” seismic reflector—located approximately
300 km above the CMB—is of particular interest. Mineral physics
links this reflector, which generates distinct P- and S-wave reflec-
tions and increases S-wave velocity by 2–3 % and P-wave velocity by
0.5–2 %, to a phase transition from bridgmanite to post-perovskite.
If these reflections stem from the phase transition, variations in re-
flector depth directly reflect lateral changes in temperature and rock
composition near the CMB. In this study, we modelled phase transi-
tions across a range of temperature–composition conditions to pro-
duce synthetic seismograms, demonstrating how these factors influ-
ence velocity jumps, reflector depth, and reflectivity. We also com-
piled data from over 65 previous studies measuring the D” reflector’s
depth, addressing the lack of a coherent global map since the identifi-
cation of post-perovskite in 2004. Our compilation shows that shal-
lower reflector depths are found in seismically fast (cold) regions,
while deeper reflectors are found in seismically slow (hot) regions,
consistent with theoretical predictions of post-perovskite occurrence.
This global map establishes a consistent framework for comparing
phase transition models with seismic observations.

How to cite: Pahlings, J., Houser, C., Hernlund, J., and Thomas, C.: Mapping the D” Seismic Reflector: Insights from Phase Transition Modelling and Global Seismic Observations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18989, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18989, 2026.

EGU26-19204 | ECS | Orals | SM1.1

Comparisons of Source Parameter Estimates Based on Moment Tensor and Coda Analysis Methods in the Sea of Marmara, NW Türkiye 

Berkan Özkan, Tuna Eken, Peter Gaebler, Seda Yolsal-Çevikbilen, and Tuncay Taymaz

Reliable, stable, and internally consistent moment magnitude (Mw) estimates are essential for seismic hazard assessment and earthquake source characterization. Full waveform inversion provides physically robust seismic moment estimates; however, its applicability is often constrained by data quality, network geometry, and modeling assumptions. Conversely, coda-based approaches are a more efficient alternative that are less sensitive to radiation pattern and path effects. This study presents a systematic comparison between coda-derived moment magnitudes (Mw-coda) estimated using the Qopen framework and those (Mw-ISOLA) obtained from moment tensor inversion conducted through the ISOLA software.

Analysis is based on the same dataset examined by Özkan et al. (2024), comprising 303 local earthquakes (2.5 ≤ ML ≤ 5.7) recorded by 49 broadband stations in the Sea of Marmara region, NW Türkiye. Qopen is utilized to jointly invert S-wave and coda-wave envelopes by employing Radiative Transfer Theory. This process yields frequency-dependent attenuation parameters and coda-derived source spectra, from which the Mw-coda is estimated. For a subset of these events with sufficient waveform quality and azimuthal coverage, independent seismic moment estimates are obtained through time-domain waveform inversion using ISOLA.

Overall, we aim to evaluate the agreement and consistency between Mw-coda and Mw-ISOLA in terms of magnitude scaling, scatter, and potential systematic bias, with particular emphasis on magnitude range, source depth, and signal-to-noise conditions in a tectonically complex region characterized by strong lateral heterogeneity and frequency-dependent attenuation.

How to cite: Özkan, B., Eken, T., Gaebler, P., Yolsal-Çevikbilen, S., and Taymaz, T.: Comparisons of Source Parameter Estimates Based on Moment Tensor and Coda Analysis Methods in the Sea of Marmara, NW Türkiye, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19204, 2026.

EGU26-19351 | ECS | Posters on site | SM1.1

Spatial and temporal evolution of the b-value: A comparative analysis across different tectonic settings 

Martina Orlando, Mariagrazia De Caro, and Caterina Montuori

The b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law represents a fundamental parameter for characterizing earthquake size distributions and assessing crustal stress conditions.

Numerous studies have demonstrated a significant relationship between the b-value and the tectonic stress regime. While low b-values are often associated with stress accumulation and potential precursors to large earthquakes, their applicability as universal precursors remains debated.

This study investigates the spatial and temporal evolution of the b-value preceding large earthquakes (M≥5.5) in regions characterized by contrasting tectonic settings and fault kinematics. We examine geographically and tectonically different areas—such us Italy, China, New Zealand, and Myanmar—which encompass different stress regimes and plate boundary configurations. By systematically analyzing local seismic catalogs from these contrasting regions, we assess whether b-value variations constitute a universal feature of the seismic cycle, or are primarily modulated by region-specific crustal properties.

Each study area is selected according to the seismogenic structures responsible for the target earthquakes. The completeness magnitude (Mc), defined as the lowest magnitude threshold above which the catalog reliably records all or nearly all earthquakes in the region, is rigorously determined as a function of time according to well-established methodologies.

We estimate Mc using the most appropriate method for each region, including either the maximum curvature method  or the 90% goodness-of-fit criteria, to ensure robust results.

The b-value is subsequently estimated using the maximum likelihood approach over appropriate spatiotemporal windows preceding each mainshock.

We present preliminary results showing that systematic b-value drops are observed in most cases. Our findings support the hypothesis that such variations represent a robust indicator of progressive stress accumulation. This comparative approach suggests that b-value monitoring can provide valuable precursory signals for seismic hazard assessment across different tectonic contexts.

How to cite: Orlando, M., De Caro, M., and Montuori, C.: Spatial and temporal evolution of the b-value: A comparative analysis across different tectonic settings, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19351, 2026.

EGU26-21737 | Orals | SM1.1

Direct estimation of earthquake source properties from a single CCTVcamera (2025 Mw 7.7 Mandalay earthquake, Myanmar) 

Soumaya Latour, Mathias Lebihain, Harsha S. Bhat, Cedric Twardzik, Quentin Bletery, Kenneth W. Hudnut, and Francois Passelègue

We present the analysis of the first known video of co-seismic slip on a natural fault. It was captured during the 2025 Mw 7.7 Mandalay earthquake (Myanmar) by a CCTV camera located a few meters away from the fault. By direct image analysis of the footage, we measure the slip and slip-rate functions from the natural coseismic rupture. The results show that the rupture propagated as a slip-pulse, with a local slip duration of 1.4 s and a maximum slip rate of 3.5 m/s ± 20%. We then fit two steady-state slip-pulse models to the measured slip-rate function, allowing us to estimate the mechanical properties of the fault: the slip-stress curve, the slip-weakening distance, the breakdown work and the energy release rate. This study shows the value of direct on-fault slip measurements for constraining those mechanical parameters, that are key inputs in dynamic rupture models.

How to cite: Latour, S., Lebihain, M., Bhat, H. S., Twardzik, C., Bletery, Q., Hudnut, K. W., and Passelègue, F.: Direct estimation of earthquake source properties from a single CCTVcamera (2025 Mw 7.7 Mandalay earthquake, Myanmar), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21737, 2026.

SM2 – Computational, Theoretical and Data-Intensive Seismology

EGU26-466 | Orals | SM2.1

Enhancing Earthquake Detection During the 2023 Reykjanes Swarm Using the Extended IPF Method 

Masumi Yamada, Kristín Jónsdóttir, and Pálmi Erlendsson

In late 2023, the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland experienced an intense seismic and volcanic episode. A major earthquake swarm began on 24 October 2023, driven by magmatic intrusion beneath the region, and its frequency and intensity escalated dramatically on 10 November. This activity culminated in the Sundhnúksgígar crater chain eruption on 18 December. During the November swarm, the high density of tremors caused significant challenges for the automatic earthquake location system, reducing its reliability. To address this issue, we applied the extended Integrated Particle Filter (IPFx) method to continuous seismic data recorded during the eruption period.

The IPFx method, originally developed for Japan’s Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system, integrates single-station P-wave detection with a network-based particle filter approach to estimate event locations and magnitudes in real time. It processes continuous waveform data from multiple stations, enabling rapid and accurate earthquake detection even during intense seismic sequences. We analyzed three days of continuous data (9–11 November 2023) and compared IPFx-derived locations with the manually reviewed catalog of the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO).

Initial application of the IPFx method using its default configuration—Japanese velocity structure and no historical seismicity—resulted in large offshore location uncertainties due to limited azimuthal coverage near the eruption site. To improve accuracy, we incorporated the South Iceland Lowland (SIL) velocity model used in Iceland and regional historical seismicity into the particle filter’s sampling and likelihood functions. These modifications reduced average location errors by approximately 50%. Furthermore, the IPFx method successfully distinguished multiple closely spaced events during periods of high seismicity, demonstrating its potential for generating reliable automatic earthquake catalogs under challenging conditions.

Our findings highlight the adaptability of the IPFx method for real-time seismic monitoring in volcanic regions with sparse station coverage. By improving earthquake location accuracy during swarm activity, this approach can enhance early warning capabilities and contribute to hazard mitigation efforts in Iceland and similar tectonic settings.

How to cite: Yamada, M., Jónsdóttir, K., and Erlendsson, P.: Enhancing Earthquake Detection During the 2023 Reykjanes Swarm Using the Extended IPF Method, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-466, 2026.

EGU26-5526 | ECS | Orals | SM2.1

Exploring wavefield-based location imaging in heterogeneous media: a borehole DAS example 

Abolfazl Komeazi, Georg rümpker, and Fabian Limberger

Earthquake localization using Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is challenging due to the single-component directional sensitivity of DAS systems. We propose a novel approach for localization that is based on dense DAS recordings and constraints from known structural heterogeneity of the subsurface. Our method employs full-waveform simulations to generate synthetic DAS wavefield images for a range of potential earthquake source locations. A deep convolutional neural network (CNN), based on a U-Net architecture, is trained on these images to map DAS-recorded wavefield patterns to earthquake source coordinates, without the need for identification and picking of P- and S-wave arrivals. We evaluate this wavefield-based localization technique using a challenging synthetic case study involving DAS recordings in a single vertical borehole, representative of monitoring configurations commonly deployed at geothermal platforms. We consider different velocity models of varying geological complexity. The results show that the CNN effectively learns location-specific wavefield signatures influenced by subsurface heterogeneity. Uncertainties can be reduced significantly by adding recordings from a second borehole. While the results are based on idealized 2D synthetic modeling, the method offers a promising approach for improving microseismic monitoring when detailed information on the heterogeneous velocity structure is available (such as that derived from seismic surveys).

How to cite: Komeazi, A., rümpker, G., and Limberger, F.: Exploring wavefield-based location imaging in heterogeneous media: a borehole DAS example, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5526, 2026.

EGU26-5599 | Posters on site | SM2.1

Passive seismological approaches for localizing near-surface fiber-optic cables with DAS 

Georg Rümpker, Fabian Limberger, and Abo Komeazi

Accurate knowledge of existing fiber-optic cable geometry is essential for applications of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), however the true positions of buried or installed fibers are often uncertain due to slack, bends, or deviations from documented routes. We present two passive, seismology-based approaches for cable localization that exploit information contained in DAS recordings. Case A employs ambient noise cross-correlations with reference points to estimate relative travel times, whereas Case B uses the differential arrivals of plane waves from distant earthquakes with linearly independent slowness vectors. Both approaches can be formulated in a least-squares framework that allows for the joint estimation of propagation velocity and geometry, thereby reducing biases from noise and model assumptions. Synthetic experiments show that cable positions can be recovered with an accuracy better than 100 m, even when apparent velocities are uncertain or the medium exhibits heterogeneity. The two methods provide independent geometric constraints that complement other sources of information on cable routing.

How to cite: Rümpker, G., Limberger, F., and Komeazi, A.: Passive seismological approaches for localizing near-surface fiber-optic cables with DAS, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5599, 2026.

EGU26-7124 | Orals | SM2.1

relMT – Software to Determine Relative Seismic Moment Tensors Illustrated with Tectonic and Induced Seismicity 

Wasja Bloch, Volker Oye, Doriane Drolet, Alexandre Plourde, and Michael Bostock

The seismic moment tensor (MT) delivers valuable information about the physical source process of a seismic event. It allows to distinguish between earthquakes, explosions and volcanic events, constraints the orientation of an earthquake rupture, and represents the most accurate estimate of the released seismic energy.

The computation of absolute MTs by waveform inversion is a data intensive task that is oftentimes feasible only for the largest events in a data set. Relative MTs rely on less subsurface information and may be computed for a large number of closely spaced weaker seismic events that are connected to an absolute MT through relative amplitude measurements. The relative MT method assumes that the Green’s functions between events is similar and that relative amplitudes are measured below the corner frequency of the largest event. Under these assumptions, the relative amplitude between seismograms can be attributed to the difference in moment tensor between events. Compared to absolute methods, path and site effects cancel out and do not need to be considered.

We here present relMT, an accessible, research-grade, open-source software package that facilitates computation of relative moment tensors for a large variety of data sets. The software takes as inputs seismic waveform, event locations, ray take-off angles, and a reference MT, as well as waveform headers and a configuration file. In synopsis, the similar waveforms are aligned to sub-sample accuracy under consideration of possible polarity reversals for P-waves and planar polarization of S-waves. Amplitude ratios between the aligned seismograms are measured on single seismic stations in a principal component framework. The relative amplitudes are combined mathematically with ray take-off angles, relative event distances and one absolute reference moment tensor in a linear system of equations. The solution of the equation system with algebraic methods yields all relative moment tensors at once. The uncertainty of the solutions is quantified using the bootstrap method. The software is under active development on GitHub (https://github.com/wasjabloch/relmt).

We illustrate the application of relMT using data sets of induced seismicity and tectonic aftershock seismicity. For the induced seismicity of the enhanced geothermal system in Helsinki, Finland, we are able to lower the magnitude threshold for which MTs can be computed from 0.5 to -0.5. For aftershocks in the Pamir highlands of Central Asia from 4.0 to 2.0.  For the data sets, this represents a 3- to 30-fold increase in the number of recovered MTs.

How to cite: Bloch, W., Oye, V., Drolet, D., Plourde, A., and Bostock, M.: relMT – Software to Determine Relative Seismic Moment Tensors Illustrated with Tectonic and Induced Seismicity, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7124, 2026.

EGU26-7959 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.1

From Machine-Learning detection to fault imaging: high-resolution seismology in the Val d'Agri (Southern Italy) 

Elisa Caredda, Simone Cesca, and Andrea Morelli

Recent advances in seismology, driven by the deployment of dense seismic networks and the development of machine-learning-based earthquake detection, have enabled the generation of high-quality seismic catalogs with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. These dense microseismic datasets provide a robust foundation for detailed waveform-based analyses, that allow individual earthquakes to be reliably linked to fault segments and enable constraints on fault geometry and slip style at fine spatial scales.

We present an integrated seismological workflow that starts from automated earthquake detection using machine-learning techniques (PhaseNet) applied to continuous seismic recordings in the Val d’Agri region (Southern Italy). The resulting high-resolution microseismic catalog is then analyzed through waveform similarity-based clustering to identify events associated with the same seismogenic structures, followed by high-precision relative relocation to delineate fault segments, and Bayesian moment tensor inversion to robustly characterize faulting style.

This waveform-based workflow enables the association of earthquakes with individual seismogenic structures, allowing to resolve fault geometries and slip styles at fine spatial scales. Results indicate that seismicity predominantly clusters on steeply southwest-dipping normal faults, with focal mechanisms consistent with the regional extensional stress regime.

These analyses illustrate how machine-learning-driven seismic monitoring combined with waveform-based analysis can bridge the gap between large microseismic datasets and fault-scale imaging. Beyond increasing detection rates, this workflow provides new insights into the geometry and kinematics of active faults in regions affected by diffuse seismicity.

How to cite: Caredda, E., Cesca, S., and Morelli, A.: From Machine-Learning detection to fault imaging: high-resolution seismology in the Val d'Agri (Southern Italy), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7959, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7959, 2026.

EGU26-8169 | Orals | SM2.1

DDSync: Denoising and outlier removal in differential travel-time observations using graph synchronization 

Elías Rafn Heimisson, Tom Winder, and Yifan Yu

Differential travel-time observations from waveform cross-correlation are among the most precise measurements in observational seismology and underpin high-resolution relative relocation. In large modern catalogs, however, HypoDD-style pair files (dt.cc) often contain outliers, cycle skipping, and internally inconsistent links that can bias downstream workflows, particularly cluster-based relocation pipelines. We present DDSync, a lightweight preprocessing method that treats the differential-time measurements for each station–phase as a weighted event graph and solves a graph synchronization problem to recover a self-consistent set of relative arrival-time proxies (one scalar per event and station–phase). The baseline estimator is a sparse weighted least-squares solution of a graph Laplacian system, which implicitly averages over redundant constraints in dense graphs and yields stable long-baseline differentials without enumerating paths.

DDSync adds two robustness layers. First, it computes an edgewise inconsistency diagnostic from the global fit (a loop-closure-style residual) and prunes grossly inconsistent links using a MAD-based threshold, with automatic re-identification of connected components. Second, it refines the solution using iteratively reweighted least squares, with a Huber loss to downweight remaining heavy tails while preserving connectivity. Beyond producing cleaned and synchronized dt.cc files, DDSync estimates uncertainty in the synchronized results by approximating per-event variance of the inferred potentials using a stochastic diagonal estimator of the inverse reduced Laplacian, and propagating these to conservative pairwise σ estimates and weights for downstream inversions.

We evaluate DDSync on the Ridgecrest synthetic benchmark of Yu et al. (2025), where differential times are perturbed with Laplacian-distributed errors and outliers added, and show near complete removal of gross outliers and strong tightening of residual distributions relative to ground truth, reducing error by about a factor of 5. The inferred uncertainty on the denoised observations capture station–phase and event-specific constraint quality and provide a practical, uncertainty-aware weighting scheme for relocation and related inverse problems. We also highlight a subglacial volcanic example with distinct event family types (icequake and VT events) where pruning preferentially removes inconsistent links that bridge otherwise separated event families, improving interpretability and robustness for analysis of dense catalogs.

How to cite: Heimisson, E. R., Winder, T., and Yu, Y.: DDSync: Denoising and outlier removal in differential travel-time observations using graph synchronization, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8169, 2026.

Local magnitude (ML) is widely used for reporting the size of small earthquakes, but to achieve consistent physical scaling and cross-regional comparability, moment magnitude (MW) and related source parameters such as corner frequency (fc) are required. Routine MW estimation for small events is often hampered by low signal-to-noise ratios and unstable spectral fitting in conventional frequency-domain approaches. Recent time-domain approaches have therefore estimated MW from peak S-wave displacement amplitudes measured in multiple narrow-band filters, but commonly rely on frequency and distance-dependent empirical attenuation curves that are inherently region specific. We present a generalized time-domain method that estimates moment magnitudes from peak S-wave displacement amplitudes measured on vertical-component seismograms filtered into ten fixed narrow bands with center frequencies spanning 0.1-30 Hz.

The method applies one-way Butterworth bandpass filters with constant bandwidth (0.2 Hz) and three poles, selected to provide stable spectral equivalence across center frequencies. For each band, the peak S-wave displacement is converted to an equivalent displacement spectral amplitude using a constant factor calibrated against Fourier displacement spectra. Source and path effects are corrected using geometrical spreading and intrinsic anelastic attenuation. Multi-band amplitudes are interpreted with a Brune source model (Brune, 1970) using a nested grid search to retrieve the long-period level (Ω0) and corner frequency (fc). MW is then calculated from the resulting seismic moment.

We validated the approach using 12,025 records from 490 earthquakes in and around the southern Korean Peninsula (2017–2022). The time-domain MW agrees closely with reference MW from displacement-spectral fitting with uncertainty assessment (R² = 0.97). To validate the generalization of our method, we applied it to a two-week subset of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence (4–18 July 2019), comprising 115,309 seismograms from 5,073 earthquakes. The resulting magnitudes also showed strong agreement with Trugman (2020) (R² = 0.91) without a region-specific correction curve.

The proposed method is directly compatible with real-time workflows, and we are integrating it into an Earthworm-based pipeline to output source parameter estimates shortly after S-wave arrival. To support this implementation, we developed modules for real-time IIR filtering and moment-magnitude estimation by adapting and extending Earthworm modules. This provides an efficient and practical route to real-time MW estimation in operational settings.

How to cite: Hong, Y., Doo, M., and Sheen, D.-H.: A generalized time-domain approach for routine moment magnitude estimation from S-wave peak displacement amplitudes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8875, 2026.

Deep learning methods have gained significant attention in seismic denoising due to their superior ability to extract weak signals from prestack data, which are often smoothed out by traditional techniques. While conventional convolutional neural networks can be trained in an end-to-end manner, they often fail to capture the underlying data distribution. Generative models are capable of reconstructing more realistic seismic signals by learning the distribution. The primary generative models include Variational Auto-Encoders (VAEs), Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), and the more recently proposed Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs). VAEs offer stable training but tend to yield results of limited quality. GANs can produce high-quality outputs via an adversarial discriminator but suffer from unstable training. DDPM could provide a favorable balance between output quality and training stability. However, the supervised training paradigm relies on high-quality labeled data, which is often scarce in geophysical applications. This limitation frequently leads to constrained generalization ability. Consequently, there is significant signal leakage for strong reflection events when applied to unseen data from different work areas.

To address this, we propose a novel discriminator-constrained diffusion model. Our key innovation is the integration of a discriminator into the DDPM framework. This adversarial component provides a powerful constraint during the training process. The hybrid training objective combines the standard diffusion loss with the adversarial loss, guiding the model to preserve critical reflections while removing noise.

We validate our method through comprehensive experiments. On synthetic data containing various noise intensities. Our method has an improvement of 0.7 dB for noisy data with 1% Gaussian noise compared to standard DDPM. More importantly, in cross-field tests, the proposed method has an improvement of 2 dB. Visualizations of denoised sections and difference profiles confirm that our approach better preserves reflections.

In conclusion, the incorporation of adversarial training into the diffusion process offers a robust solution to the generalization challenge in deep learning-based seismic denoising. Our work demonstrates a promising pathway for applying advanced generative models to practical geophysical data with limited labels.

 

How to cite: Zhang, Y.: Discriminator-Augmented Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models for Seismic Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10528, 2026.

EGU26-10958 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.1

Towards New Magnitude Models for Switzerland 

Abdullah Altindal, Carlo Cauzzi, Dino Bindi, Tobias Diehl, Nicholas Deichmann, John Clinton, and Stefan Wiemer

We present new local magnitude models for Switzerland, derived using a top-quality input dataset of ground-motion intensity measures, obtained through an automated and consistent waveform processing workflow (https://doi.org/10.1785/0120250032). The input dataset includes Wood-Anderson displacement response amplitudes calculated from 150,000 waveforms generated by about 15,000 earthquakes in the region of interest. This dataset is substantially larger than those used in previous magnitude studies in Switzerland and contains a large number of recordings at short distances for smaller events (about 5,000 earthquakes with magnitudes lower than 1, and about 1500 records at hypocentral distances shorter than 5 km), which were sparse in earlier studies. The parametrization of the local magnitude model is based on a detailed investigation of attenuation characteristics of the Wood-Anderson response amplitudes, comprising: (i) linear and logarithmic distance terms to represent different physical mechanisms of seismic wave propagation; (ii) hinge distances to allow modelling the effects of Moho reflections and the associated changes in attenuation rate; (iii) regional adjustments (Swiss Alps vs Swiss northern Foreland) based on the length and location of the surface projection of the source-to-site ray paths. Model coefficients are determined through mixed-effects regressions, thus allowing the derivation of station-magnitude correction terms consistent with the reference rock-like ground type used for mapping seismic hazard in Switzerland. We assess and validate the model’s performance via uncertainty analyses, validation against recent data not used in model calibration, validation against recordings of major Swiss events, and comparisons with results obtained from alternative, fully independent modelling approaches (including non-parametric and 2D cell-based methods). The new model yields systematically lower magnitudes, with an average difference of 0.1-0.2 magnitude units for smaller events with magnitudes below 2.5 and for earthquakes located in the Swiss northern Foreland, compared to the currently authoritative catalogue magnitudes. Based on the new candidate magnitude model, we present and discuss an updated empirical scaling relationship between local and moment magnitudes.

How to cite: Altindal, A., Cauzzi, C., Bindi, D., Diehl, T., Deichmann, N., Clinton, J., and Wiemer, S.: Towards New Magnitude Models for Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10958, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10958, 2026.

EGU26-11512 | ECS | Orals | SM2.1

The Impact of Probability Thresholds and Model Training on Phase Picking Performance 

Rossella Fonzetti, Daniele Bailo, Luisa Valoroso, Pasquale De Gori, and Claudio Chiarabba

The transition from manual to deep-learning automated seismic phase picking has revolutionized seismology applications such as seismic catalog building and fault structures analysis. However, the reliability of these AI-driven catalogs is often hindered by a "black-box" approach to model selection and decision thresholds. While deep learning models like PhaseNet (Zhu and Beroza, 2019) offer unprecedented efficiency, their performance is sensitive to the data they were trained on and to the probability thresholds used to define a "phase pick". 

In this work, we present a comparative study focused on the Amatrice–Visso–Norcia 2016-2017 seismic sequence in Central Italy. We investigate the influence of the training models and the threshold variation on the phase picking detections.  

In particular, we compare the performance of the default PhaseNet model (STEAD) against i) a model trained on the AQ2009 dataset (specific for the Central Apennines, from Bagagli et al., 2023) and ii) a model obtained through Transfer Learning on STEAD fine-tuned with the INSTANCE model (Michelini et al., 2021) via the SeisBench platform (Woollam et al., 2022). We also analyze how varying the confidence threshold (from 0.1 to 0.9) affects the final catalog's completeness and precision.

Preliminary results show that regional training significantly outperforms default models in specific noise conditions and that the optimal threshold is influenced by station geometry and signal-to-noise ratios. By providing a statistical framework for automated threshold calibration, this study offers a roadmap for more objective and reproducible signal detection, applicable not only to seismology but to any domain dealing with continuous time-series classification.

How to cite: Fonzetti, R., Bailo, D., Valoroso, L., De Gori, P., and Chiarabba, C.: The Impact of Probability Thresholds and Model Training on Phase Picking Performance, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11512, 2026.

EGU26-11625 | ECS | Orals | SM2.1

An enhanced catalog and earthquake source parameter estimations in the Lower-Rhine Embayment region, western Central Europe 

Xiang Chen, Sebastian Carrasco, Marco P. Roth, Gian Maria Bocchini, and Rebecca M. Harrington

A high-resolution earthquake catalog and detailed quantification of earthquake source parameters are essential for constraining fault structure and earthquake interactions. As a candidate site for the next-generation gravitational wave detector (i.e., Einstein Telescope), the Lower-Rhine Embayment region requires a comprehensive assessment of the fault distribution inferred through seismicity and earthquake source properties. In this study, we build an enhanced earthquake catalog using both permanent seismic stations and new data from temporary deployments together with AI-based techniques, including signal enhancement with a decoder-autoencoder denoiser, seismic phase detection using PhaseNet, and event association with PyOcto. We further refine earthquake locations with the NLL-SSST-coherence algorithm and then apply an automatic quality-control filter using event association to remove false detections resulting from the misinterpretation of teleseismic signals as local ones due to event denoising. We detect 3900 events for the period 2019 to 2025, with 2101 of them being classified as earthquakes. The enhanced catalog shows increased hypocentral depths along the NW-trending Sandgewand fault, with a maximum depth of 20 km at the southern end of the fault system. 

We also present the first results of a source-parameter catalog for earthquakes that occurred between 2000 and 2025 based on the dataset of Hinzen et al. (2021). Focal mechanisms for selected earthquakes in the region are determined with SKHASH by combining S/P ratios and first-motion polarities obtained from PhaseNet+. We fit individual earthquake spectral parameters, including corner frequency and seismic moment, and calculate stress-drop values for ML≥1.5 events based on a circular crack model. Preliminary results indicate a median stress-drop value of 2.5 MPa across the region, with slightly higher stress-drop values observed on the Sandgewand fault relative to the Rurrand fault. In addition, we use the Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) recordings to compute focal mechanism and corner frequency estimates and compare the results with broadband seismic stations for two earthquakes captured by DAS observations in the Netherlands in 2025. The enhanced spatial sampling density of DAS data provides additional constraints on earthquake source parameters and enables fault movement estimation that is difficult with seismic station data alone.

How to cite: Chen, X., Carrasco, S., Roth, M. P., Bocchini, G. M., and Harrington, R. M.: An enhanced catalog and earthquake source parameter estimations in the Lower-Rhine Embayment region, western Central Europe, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11625, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11625, 2026.

EGU26-13989 | ECS | Orals | SM2.1

Automated Extraction of Rayleigh Wave Dispersion Curves from DAS Railway Monitoring 

Shubham Shrivastava, Andrew Trafford, Muhammad Saqlain, and Shane Donohue

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) enables continuous assessment of transport infrastructure conditions through passive surface wave analysis. However, operational deployment may be problematic as the dispersion curves from thousands of frequency-velocity dispersion images are generated during routine monitoring. Passive DAS recordings from train-induced vibrations exhibit severe fragmentation, strong higher-mode interference, and temporal variability driven by seasonal moisture changes that consistently challenge manual or semi-automated picking methods. 

We present a training-free hybrid algorithm that combines marker-controlled watershed segmentation with physics-informed trajectory optimization to extract fundamental mode of dispersion curves from complex operational DAS data. Applied to a 15-month monitoring campaign on a 350 m railway embankment in the UK, the methodology operates directly on dispersion images exported from standard MASW processing software. The algorithm proceeds through five stages: (1) binary masking with morphological noise suppression establishes candidate energy regions; (2) watershed transformation with internal markers separates touching fragments that should constitute independent segments; (3) bidirectional amplitude-maximum propagation with adaptive vertical search radii extracts local trajectory estimates within each isolated fragment; (4) velocity band filtering combined with forward monotonic chaining reassembles disconnected segments by enforcing kinematic consistency and rejecting physically-implausible connections; and (5) global sigmoid fitting with constrained horizontal extension produces smooth, inversion-ready dispersion curves validated against aliasing boundaries. 

Validation against manual picking demonstrates that the algorithm bridges spectral gaps exceeding 5 Hz, correctly isolates fundamental from higher modes even when energy amplitudes are comparable, and maintains trajectory continuity through severe fragmentation where conventional peak-following methods fail. Beyond immediate operational utility, automated extraction from real-world DAS railway data enables generating computationally labeled training datasets that preserve physical consistency and interpretability. We demonstrate how this computer vision approach produces high-quality dispersion curve labels across diverse geological settings and complexity levels. 

How to cite: Shrivastava, S., Trafford, A., Saqlain, M., and Donohue, S.: Automated Extraction of Rayleigh Wave Dispersion Curves from DAS Railway Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13989, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13989, 2026.

EGU26-14439 | Posters on site | SM2.1

scoctoloc - A regional phase associator and locator module for SeisComP 

Joachim Saul, Jannes Münchmeyer, and Frederik Tilmann

The open-source, seismological software SeisComP is widely used for earthquake monitoring world-wide.  Its default automatic phase association and location module is scautoloc, which was originally developed to monitor large earthquakes with global or large-regional networks.  It detects and locates earthquakes iteratively, beginning with P picks from only the nearest stations and improving the earthquake location as additional picks arrive. This process may take more than 15 minutes and the availability of early intermediate results is therefore essential for time-critical applications like tsunami early warning.

Requirements for local earthquake monitoring are quite different.  The number of stations is usually smaller and the seismic wave travel times are typically below one minute. Small networks greatly benefit from the use of S picks and custom velocity models to optimize their locations, neither of which are currently supported by scautoloc.

In an effort to improve local and regional monitoring capabilities in SeisComP using only open-source software, we adapted the phase associator PyOcto [1, 2] to the SeisComP framework.  PyOcto was specifically designed for fast processing of large amounts of regional network picks. This is particularly important because of the vast improvements in the amount of picks obtained using machine learning techniques [3, 4].  Its efficient implementation and low computational overhead also make PyOcto a perfect phase associator for real-time earthquake monitoring.

The new SeisComP module scoctoloc [5] leverages the use of PyOcto to improve processing of local and regional network data in SeisComP. The ability to process both P and S picks and the convenient support for either homogeneous (0D) or custom layered (1D) velocity models overcome the main limitations of scautoloc. Small networks may choose to run scoctoloc as a drop-in replacement of scautoloc, though both modules may also be run in parallel.

The factors limiting the real-time processing speed are the network dimension (and hence seismic travel times) and pick latency. The latter depends on the latency of the data telemetry and on the processing delay imposed by the picking technique used.  In our real-time test setup, a virtual seismic network in Northern Chile, earthquake locations are usually produced within three minutes after an event using P and S picks produced by the scdlpicker module [4]. Where processing speed is more crucial than optimum pick accuracy, the standard SeisComP scautopick with S picking enabled is still the picker of choice.

The use case that PyOcto was developed for originally, the bulk processing of huge amounts of picks read from a database, is supported by scoctoloc as well.  In addition it is possible to run "pick playbacks" from a SeisComP database in order to simulate real-time operation. This mode is useful in order to fine-tune the configuration parameters relevant for real-time monitoring based on past events.

[1] Münchmeyer, J. (2024). PyOcto: A high-throughput seismic phase associator. Seismica. doi:10.26443/seismica.v3i1.1130.
[2] https://github.com/yetinam/pyocto
[3] Münchmeyer et al. (2022), https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB023499
[4] https://github.com/SeisComP/scdlpicker
[5] https://github.com/jsaul/scoctoloc

How to cite: Saul, J., Münchmeyer, J., and Tilmann, F.: scoctoloc - A regional phase associator and locator module for SeisComP, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14439, 2026.

EGU26-14799 | Posters on site | SM2.1

Towards an Improved Seismic Source Catalog for Switzerland 

Tobias Diehl, Julia Heilig, Abdullah Altindal, Sandro Truttmann, Carlo Cauzzi, Nicholas Deichmann, John Clinton, Marco Herwegh, and Stefan Wiemer

We present an updated and extended seismotectonic earthquake catalog of Switzerland and surrounding regions. This SECOS25 catalog serves as input for the seismic-source component of Switzerland’s next generation seismic hazard model to be developed by the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) over the coming years. The SECOS25 catalog includes 51 years of instrumental seismicity detected and located by the SED between 1975 and 2025. For the digital era of the SED catalog (phase picks and seismograms available in digital form) starting in 1984, hypocenters were consistently relocated in absolute terms using a recent 3D P and S-wave crustal velocity model. Starting from these improved hypocenters, double-difference relative relocations were performed at different scales (local clusters as well as regional scales), combining differential times from manual picks and waveform cross correlations. A merging procedure was developed that selects the preferred location method (bulletin location, absolute relocation, relative relocation) based on location-quality criteria for each hypocenter. The proposed procedure provides various hypocenter uncertainty measures and ensures the maximum possible hypocenter-location accuracy and precision for each event. Local magnitudes were revised using a new set of consistent amplitude measurements (doi.org/10.1785/0120250032) and a new magnitude model. For each earthquake, we provide moment magnitudes from native methods if available (either from moment tensors or spectral fitting) or revised scaling relationships. Finally, we link the hypocenters with catalogs of moment tensors (containing about 80 solutions) as well as first-motion focal mechanisms (containing about 600 solutions).

The SECOS25 catalog serves as a base for further down-stream seismotectonic components of the seismic-source model. This includes heat maps of seismic activity and moment release across Switzerland as well as maps of deformation regimes and stress orientations derived from the analysis and inversion of focal mechanisms. Finally, we apply an enhanced version of the HyFi method (doi.org/10.1029/2023JB026352) to the SECOS25 catalog to systematically identify previously unknown seismically active fault segments and their orientations. The derived information will contribute to a refined definition of seismic zonation as well as faulting styles and preferred rupture orientations required for hazard computations. The SECOS25 catalog and derived products therefore also contribute to an improved understanding of present-day seismotectonic processes in the Central Alpine region.

How to cite: Diehl, T., Heilig, J., Altindal, A., Truttmann, S., Cauzzi, C., Deichmann, N., Clinton, J., Herwegh, M., and Wiemer, S.: Towards an Improved Seismic Source Catalog for Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14799, 2026.

EGU26-15608 * | Orals | SM2.1 | Highlight

PetaScale Data-Driven Seismology: Geohazard Discovery via Large Array Data Mining at the Edge, on Premise, and on the Cloud 

Marine Denolle, Yiyu Ni, Qibin Shi, Alex Rose, and Brad Lipovsky

The accumulation of decades of continuous seismic observations, combined with the emergence of new sensing technologies (e.g., distributed acoustic sensing-DAS- and nodes) and novel computing infrastructure, presents both outstanding challenges and opportunities for the observational geophysical community to tackle data processing at petabytes scale. Methodologies, open-source software practices, and cyberinfrastructure have advanced to a point where mining petabyte-scale archives can be done within a single day of cloud computation (Ni et al, 2025a,b). This contribution reviews research workflows centered around seismic event monitoring with large-scale seismometers and regional DAS networks. We evaluate strategies for both cloud infrastructure (Ni et al, 2025) and edge DAS units (Shi et al, 2025a,b) for a seismic event monitoring pipeline that leverages deep learning for rapid feature extraction, such as classification of seismic source type and picking of P- and S-wave arrivals. Leveraging and advocating for open-source software, we discuss computational considerations and strategies to improve the performance of pre-trained deep learning models through transfer-learning and model architecture adaptation. We illustrate these findings with the United States NSF-National Geophysics Facility archive operated by the EarthScope Consortium, as well as diverse experiments from the University of Washington FiberLab.

How to cite: Denolle, M., Ni, Y., Shi, Q., Rose, A., and Lipovsky, B.: PetaScale Data-Driven Seismology: Geohazard Discovery via Large Array Data Mining at the Edge, on Premise, and on the Cloud, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15608, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15608, 2026.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is challenging in cratonic regions such as Sweden, where the characteristics of strong motion (detrimental for structures) are uncertain due to a lack of data. The current approach is therefore to use available data sets of small-to-moderate earthquakes to identify seismogenic areas and to adapt models from more seismically active regions. One issue encountered in this process is estimating the moment magnitude (Mw) of these earthquakes. In fact, evaluation of local magnitude (Ml) is preferred for magnitude <4 earthquakes due to the difficulty of deriving Mw using standard methods.

In this work, we propose to estimate the Mw of earthquakes in Sweden using a generalised inversion technique (GIT), and to investigate the uncertainty of this measurement in this seismic context. To do so, a ground-motion data set of Ml=0-4.1 earthquakes recorded by the Swedish National Seismological Network (SNSN) is compiled, and the non-parametric generalised inversion of Oth et al. (2011) is applied. This approach identifies the source spectrum of earthquakes, the apparent attenuation of the region and the site amplification of stations by performing a spectral decomposition of the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS). The parameters of the Brune (1970) source model and the frequency-dependent elastic and anelastic attenuation models are derived from these terms in post-inversion.

We present here the resulting source parameters (Mw and corner frequency fc) that are analysed and compared with the moment based Ml computed by the SNSN. The consistency of these estimates is then evaluated using higher-sample-rate recordings from a temporary network that was deployed for four years in Sweden’s most seismic active region. The 100 Hz sampling rate of the permanent stations limits the estimation of Mw and fc for earthquakes of magnitude <2, as their fc is expected to exceed the Nyquist frequency (~45 Hz). The 200 Hz sample rate set for the temporary network enables the source spectrum to be derived up to 90 Hz and therefore allows the veracity of the Brune (1970) model (which has been derived from a shorter frequency band) to be analysed.

Applying this inversion algorithm also provides new insights into anelastic attenuation in cratonic regions and into site amplification observed at hard rock/bedrock sites (which constitute the majority of SNSN installations). Knowing the apparent attenuation and site conditions is useful for future studies, especially for correcting the FAS at stations to measure Mw using other approaches or models, and for achieving a quasi real time estimate.

How to cite: Buscetti, M. and Lund, B.: Estimation of the moment magnitude and its uncertainty for small-to-moderate earthquakes in Sweden using a generalised inversion approach., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17337, 2026.

EGU26-18401 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.1

Relative stress drop and source parameters estimation from spectral ratio method 

Naossa Maille-Okada, Mariano Supino, Claudio Satriano, Takahiko Uchide, and Warner Marzocchi

Estimating the stress drop (Δσ) occurring during an earthquake allows us to characterize the mechanical state of the area surrounding its source. The magnitude (Mw) and the source radius (r) of an earthquake are usually assumed to scale such that Δσ is constant. We typically refer to this assumption as self-similarity of earthquakes.

However, estimates of Δσ can vary by at least four orders of magnitude (e.g., Cocco et al., 2016, DOI: 10.1007/s10950-016-9594-4). It is an open question to what extent this variability is caused by methodological and data uncertainties, or it is a manifestation of different physical processes (Abercrombie et al., 2025, DOI: 10.1785/0120240158). This is especially true for smaller events, due to a strong correlation between source and propagation terms in the waveform modeling.

In this study, we obtain precise relative source parameters (seismic moment, corner frequency and stress drop) estimates analyzing the spectral ratios of co-located events with similar source mechanisms. This allows us to get rid of the propagation term in the waveform modeling, and to focus on the effects of the assumed source model on the stress drop.

We analyze pairs of events recorded during 2017 in North Ibaraki region (Japan) by a high-resolution temporary seismic network operated by AIST and by Hi-net stations, and during Pawnee and Prague earthquakes in Oklahoma (2011 and 2016, respectively). Overall, we explore a range of magnitudes from M = 0.7 to M = 5.8.

We find that  source model and self-similarity are not always compatible and that in general a strong correlation exists between stress drop estimates and the source parameter γ that describes the decay of source spectrum at high frequencies (γ = 2 in the  model). This emphasizes the importance of considering γ as a free parameter when modeling earthquake source spectra.

Moreover, our approach allows us to investigate potential differences among catalog and moment magnitudes through the inferred relative seismic moment estimates.  For the small events in Ibaraki, we find differences larger than 0.5 units between local magnitude (Ml) and moment magnitude, supporting previous evidence of non-linear relationships between Ml and Mw (e.g., Uchide and Imanishi, 2018, DOI:10.1002/2017JB014697). This highlights the importance of expanding Mw catalogs to smaller magnitudes, as statistical analysis of Ml catalogs may be affected by systematic biases.

 

This study was supported by TRANSFORM², funded by the European Commission under project number 101188365 within the HORIZON-INFRA-2024-DEV-01-01 call.

How to cite: Maille-Okada, N., Supino, M., Satriano, C., Uchide, T., and Marzocchi, W.: Relative stress drop and source parameters estimation from spectral ratio method, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18401, 2026.

EGU26-19111 | Posters on site | SM2.1

Event classification and quality assessment for local seismic events using machine learning 

Rögnvaldur Líndal Magnússon

Automatic monitoring of local seismicity produces events of varying quality. Some events will be poorly located, and some event solutions will not represent a real seismic event, arising only due to noise. Noise events are removed and location quality improved during manual revision, but that is not always feasible for large catalogs. In cases with >10000 events manual review is not tenable, so an automatic quality score calculation is beneficial in improving catalog quality.

Machine learning methods are a useful tool for this purpose, both for classification and calculating a quality score. We explore machine learning methods for solutions to this problem, with a special focus on feature extraction from travel-time information.

The models are evaluated on data from three seismic networks in Iceland. The dataset contains both automatic and manual solutions for a large number of earthquakes, so direct comparisons between manual and automatic solutions can be made. The manual locations can then be used as a ground truth solution that the automatic solutions attempt to approximate. The models are ranked on their classification score as well as their ability to estimate the spatial distance from the ground truth solution.

How to cite: Magnússon, R. L.: Event classification and quality assessment for local seismic events using machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19111, 2026.

EGU26-19637 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.1

From Seismic Arrays to Single-Station Wavefield Gradiometry: Results from a Multi-Scale Experimental Campaign 

Manon Morin, Olivier Sèbe, Éric Beucler, Yann Capdeville, Guillaume Rouille, Daniel Boyer, Jean-Baptiste Decitre, Vincent Bremaud, Charly Lallemand, Fabrice Lepoint, and Garry Govindin

Seismological studies are traditionally based on the observation of ground motions recorded by translation sensors. However, to assess a comprehensive description of any wavefield produced by seismic sources, the three components of rotation are as important as the three translation components. Due to improvements in instrumentation through the last two decades, the ground rotational motion is now an observable. Several recent publications show that 6 degrees of freedom (-dof) seismic station, recording the 3 translation and 3 rotation components of the ground motion, provides valuable information to locate events or to infer their source mechanism.

Rotation motions can be recorded directly via dedicated sensors, or numerically derived via a dense array of seismometers. The formers primarily use technologies based on fiber optic gyroscopes, liquid-based systems, or mechanical principles. However, these broadband instruments do not have the high sensitivity required to detect "weak" ground movements. Conventional sensor arrays, on the other hand, use finite differences techniques to estimate reliable indirect rotation measurements, but these are limited at high frequencies (wavelength > 4 × array aperture).

Since the end of 2025, a temporary experimental campaign is set at the Low Noise Underground Laboratory (LSBB) in Rustrel, France. Two rotational rate sensors, namely a BlueSeis 3A and a Eentec R3, are deployed in the underground galleries, jointly with five seismometers which complete the permanent seismic array. The dense seismic array co-located around the rotation sensors is used to compute array derived rotations (ADR), and validate the direct observations of rotational ground motions. Furthermore, six seismometers are deployed at the surface to form an array with an aperture of around fifty kilometers. It has been designed for long-term observations of regional and global seismicity and array processing analysis, such as beamforming techniques. This campaign allows to compare the performance of classical seismic array processing with innovative gradiometric approaches based on a single 6-dof station, focusing on detection, location, and characterization of seismic events within a common frequency band. A sensitivity study on rotation signals, in terms of instrumental conditions (array geometry, station quality) and processing parameters (signal duration, filtering), is carried out with the help of numerical full waveform modelling in order to quantify the uncertainty of the estimated source parameters. We present the benefit of such multi-component seismic wavefield recording, illustrated on several events of interest such as the recent (2025/07/29) Kamchatka event (Mw 8.8).

How to cite: Morin, M., Sèbe, O., Beucler, É., Capdeville, Y., Rouille, G., Boyer, D., Decitre, J.-B., Bremaud, V., Lallemand, C., Lepoint, F., and Govindin, G.: From Seismic Arrays to Single-Station Wavefield Gradiometry: Results from a Multi-Scale Experimental Campaign, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19637, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19637, 2026.

EGU26-21190 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.1

A machine-learning workflow for event detection and relocation in the Gargano Promontory (Southern Italy) 

Andrea Pio Ferreri, Serena Panebiano, Claudio Satriano, Marilena Filippucci, Gianpaolo Cecere, Vincenco Serlenga, Tony Alfredo Stabile, Giulio Selvaggi, and Andrea Tallarico

In regions with limited tectonic information, dense deployments of local seismic networks significantly improve the detection of low-magnitude events. The consequent enrichment of seismic catalogs is proved to have a crucial role for understanding seismotectonic processes and assessing seismic hazards. This study evaluates the performance of machine learning algorithms (MLA) for P- and S-wave picking and event association, using data recorded between April 2013 and June 2025 by the OTRIONS seismic network (FDSN code OT), operating in the Gargano Promontory (GP, Southern Italy) since 2013.

The MLA workflow consists of PhaseNet, a deep learning-based phase picker, in combination with GaMMA, an association algorithm, were employed and approximately 27,000 seismic events were detected. NonLinLoc was employed for event locations. The visual inspection confirmed that about 51% of the events were local earthquakes, while the remainder events were classified as quarry blasts, false events, or events located outside the network. The visual revision procedure was essential at this step.

Compared to the previous manual catalog (based on the STA/LTA detection algorithm) in the same area, the MLA workflow brougth to a new enriched automatic catalog. The quality assessment of the new catalog indicates that the automatic picking is reliable and confirms the OT network’s ability to detect a high rate of low-magnitude seismicity. The NonLinLoc-SSST-Coherence algorithm was also applied to better identify the structures on which seismicity is accomodated and the results suggest that NonLinLoc-SSST-Coherence has better permormances when applied to small seismic sequences than to the widespread seismicity of GP. 

From a seismotectonic perspective, the already known seismogenic layer deepening northeasternward characterizing the GP seismicity here appears for the first time to be splitted in two structures located at different depth. This study highlights the crucial role of dense local networks and MLA tools in managing and analyzing large volumes of low-energy seismic data.

How to cite: Ferreri, A. P., Panebiano, S., Satriano, C., Filippucci, M., Cecere, G., Serlenga, V., Stabile, T. A., Selvaggi, G., and Tallarico, A.: A machine-learning workflow for event detection and relocation in the Gargano Promontory (Southern Italy), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21190, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21190, 2026.

EGU26-21600 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.1

Bayesian bootstrapping extension of GISOLA automatic moment tensor inversion software 

Vasilis Velentzas, Jiří Zahradník, Emmanouil Psarakis, Christos Evangelidis, and Efthimios Sokos

Moment tensor (MT) determination is a key component of real-time seismology, with applications in moment magnitude estimation, tsunami early warning, volcano monitoring and shake map generation. Despite its importance, the reliable inversion of MT components, especially the non-double-couple ones, presents significant challenges. Indeed, the non–DC components are highly sensitive and often exhibit large fluctuations, making reliable estimation of the full moment tensor difficult. These limitations highlight the need for robust uncertainty quantification of MTs.  To efficiently address this issue, we propose a Bayesian bootstrapping approach. The approach assumes that Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) is fair and the velocity model is not systematically biased. The method relies on a series of weighted inversions, in which station contributions are stochastically varied using Bayesian weights. This procedure produces an ensemble of plausible MT solutions enabling statistical characterization of the inversion results (e.g., median MT, confidence intervals of ISO and CLVD components, etc.). This approach, free of the assumption of Gaussianity of data error, provides meaningful uncertainty estimates and improves the interpretability of non–double-couple components. The proposed methodology has been integrated into GISOLA, an open-source, highly efficient near–real-time MT inversion software, currently in routine operation in several seismic networks. The resulting automated operational framework handles multiple data streams in heterogeneous formats, interfaces with diverse processing modules, applies a systematic preprocessing workflow to identify the most reliable stations and corresponding signals, performs parallelized inversions, and provides robust uncertainty quantification. This enhances the reliability of source characterization in operational environments and supports more informed use of MT results in time-critical seismic monitoring.

This work is supported by TRANSFORM²  which is funded by the European Union under project number 101188365 within the HORIZON-INFRA-2024-DEV-01-01 call

How to cite: Velentzas, V., Zahradník, J., Psarakis, E., Evangelidis, C., and Sokos, E.: Bayesian bootstrapping extension of GISOLA automatic moment tensor inversion software, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21600, 2026.

EGU26-3133 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.2

PHASER: A Deep Learning Model for Real-time Downhole Microseismic Event Picking 

Kelvis Leung, James Verdon, and Maximilian Werner

In this study we introduce PHASER, a seismic event picker developed specifically for downhole microseismic applications. In recent years, DL models have been extensively explored for automating phase-picking and/or event detection for seismic data, with most applications focusing on teleseismic/regional earthquake signals from surface arrays. Surface arrays require a generalizable solution across different array geometries. In contrast, downhole arrays used to monitor industrial activities such as geothermal, CCS and hydraulic fracturing are more standardized in receiver placement, but present unique challenges and opportunities. Seismic phases arrive coherently on closely-spaced downhole geophones. However, access to downhole data is also often limited, and such data are often available only as event-based traces, and labels are often incomplete or inaccurate. To address these constraints, PHASER is trained in a multi-stage framework that remains effective and generalizable even when catalogue labels are incomplete and limited. PHASER incorporates association filtering into its training; pick probabilities are matched with their respective association probabilities based on learned source-related feature embeddings for each P- and S- arrival. By using a learned extraction threshold, PHASER avoids the manual parameter tuning typically required for pick extraction. PHASER demonstrates better continuous monitoring performance on unseen sites than existing DL phase-pickers, achieving a 6-fold performance over PhaseNet in F1 score from 0.107 to 0.584 on an out of sample test dataset.

How to cite: Leung, K., Verdon, J., and Werner, M.: PHASER: A Deep Learning Model for Real-time Downhole Microseismic Event Picking, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3133, 2026.

EGU26-4281 | ECS | Orals | SM2.2

Volcanic Eruption Mass Estimation: A Machine Learning Approach 

Naeim Mousavi, Javier Fullea, and S. Mostafa Mousavi

Traditional volcano monitoring relies on dense ground-based instrumentation (e.g., seismic, gravity, and deformation measurements), which is available for only a small fraction of the world’s volcanoes. While satellite observations can complement these measurements, estimating total erupted mass—a primary metric of eruption magnitude—remains largely a post-eruption task. Consequently, erupted mass has been quantified for only ~100 of the 1,282 known volcanoes.

These limitations motivate the use of machine learning (ML) in volcanic prediction. Unlike traditional approaches, ML can integrate diverse, globally available datasets to generate predictive insights for volcanoes with limited or no time-dependent monitoring. This capability enables proactive risk assessment and hazard planning, offering a scalable, cost-effective, and globally applicable tool for volcanic risk mitigation. By capturing complex nonlinear relationships among static geophysical, petrological, and tectonic parameters, ML allows estimation of eruption magnitude prior to or early in eruptive activity, an outcome infeasible using classical approaches.

To demonstrate this potential, we present a ML framework to forecast a volcano’s potential erupted mass using static geophysical, petrological, and tectonic characteristics, together with eruption history. The model was trained on a dataset of 914 historical eruptions from 101 volcanoes and applied to estimate erupted mass for 135 globally distributed volcanoes active between 1982 and 2024, assuming a representative eruption duration of 225 days.

This approach provides the first global-scale erupted mass estimates that do not rely on high-resolution, time-dependent monitoring data (e.g., time-lapsed gravity, deformation, or seismicity). Feature importance and permutation analyses indicate that predictions are dominated by static geophysical parameters. The most influential predictors are eruption duration, elevation, gravity, and magnetic data. Parameters with intermediate influence include Moho depth, subsurface thermal indicators (e.g., depth to the Curie isotherm at ~580 °C and the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary at ~1330 °C), dominant rock type, last eruption, and surface heat flow. Volcano landform, eruption type and start date, host crustal type, and tectonic setting exhibit relatively minor predictive influence.

Our results demonstrate that comprehensive, globally available geophysical datasets can robustly constrain erupted mass for medium- to long-duration eruptions (>3 months), while short-duration eruptive behavior may be better captured through detailed historical eruption records.

How to cite: Mousavi, N., Fullea, J., and Mousavi, S. M.: Volcanic Eruption Mass Estimation: A Machine Learning Approach, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4281, 2026.

EGU26-4447 | ECS | Orals | SM2.2

A Data-Physics Dual-Constraint Framework for Intelligent Surface Wave Suppression 

Bingyu Wang, Yongxiang Shi, Jingchong Wen, and Jieyuan Ning

High-energy surface waves (ground roll) are a major source of coherent noise in land seismic data, often overlapping with reflections and degrading subsurface imaging quality. We propose an intelligent surface-wave suppression method based on a dual-constraint framework that integrates data-driven supervision with a physics-guided prior. A composite loss is constructed with (1) a data constraint in the time–space (t–x) domain, implemented as a supervised loss that compares the network output with the labeled targets, and (2) a physics constraint in the frequency–velocity (f–v) domain, where the surface-wave dispersion curve is exploited to delineate the physically plausible ground-roll region and to penalize residual energy inconsistent with the dispersion curve. We train UNet and TransUNet architectures on field datasets using this composite objective. Compared with purely data-driven training, the proposed dual-constraint loss reduces the dependence on potentially imperfect labels by enforcing dispersion-consistent behavior in the f–v domain, leading to lower residual surface-wave energy while maintaining reflection continuity. These results demonstrate that incorporating physically meaningful constraints into modern network architectures can improve robustness under imperfect supervision and enhance intelligent seismic surface-wave suppression.

How to cite: Wang, B., Shi, Y., Wen, J., and Ning, J.: A Data-Physics Dual-Constraint Framework for Intelligent Surface Wave Suppression, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4447, 2026.

EGU26-4942 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.2

Deep Learning Seismic Waveforms to Predict Sea Ice Properties 

Jonas Michael, Ludovic Moreau, and Marielle Malfante
Accurate and continuous estimates of sea-ice properties are essential for understanding the dynamics of a warming Arctic. In this context, seismic methods are promising tools for achieving high temporal and spatial resolution estimates of sea-ice thickness and mechanical parameters. However, current approaches rely on computationally expensive waveform inversions of icequakes, which prevents their application to real-time estimation of ice properties in the field.
 

To address this limitation, we explore replacing such inversions with convolutional neural networks (CNNs) trained on physically informed synthetic waveforms to infer sea-ice thickness. The synthetic icequake waveforms are generated by a one-dimensional forward model for flexural waves in floating ice that accounts for ice thickness, mechanical properties, and source–receiver distance. Realistic source spectra are incorporated using a library of field data.

On synthetic waveforms, the networks recover ice thickness and source distance with low error, indicating that the learned relationship between waveform characteristics and physical parameters captures the dominant dispersive physics. However, when applied directly to field icequake waveforms, the accuracy decreases, reflecting the limitations of using synthetic waveforms alone for training due to idealized model assumptions. Based on additional tests, we outline strategies to improve CNN performance and robustness when applied to field data.

How to cite: Michael, J., Moreau, L., and Malfante, M.: Deep Learning Seismic Waveforms to Predict Sea Ice Properties, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4942, 2026.

EGU26-5798 | Orals | SM2.2

Detection of Seismic Events Using Semi-Supervised Learning  

Anupa Chakraborty and Mukat Sharma

The continuous seismic monitoring provides numerous waveform signals that provide useful information about geological processes such as landslides and geohazard activities. In tectonically active zones like the Himalayan arc, mass-movement events often overlap with natural earthquakes, creating challenges for reliable event discrimination. This study presents a semi-supervised learning framework that detects landslides like debris flow, rockfall, as well as earthquakes, from continuous seismological data with the help of a small amount of labelled dataset, calculating physically interpretable attributes from waveforms. The waveform and spectrum-based 157 features were extracted from segmented seismic windows, representing temporal, spectral, energy, and morphological attributes. The workflow combines dimensionality reduction, density-based clustering, and graph-based label propagation to identify and classify seismic events. To evaluate methodological choices, two complementary studies were conducted. The model benchmarking study compared four combinations of embedding and clustering algorithms, and a parametric sensitivity analysis that investigated the influence of key hyperparameters of the embedding and clustering algorithms. Feature importance analysis using statistical and machine-learning-based techniques was integrated throughout the study to ensure physical interpretability and to identify attributes most relevant for source discrimination. In this study, three months of continuous seismological data of the Tehri region, Uttarakhand, were analysed and revealed many previously undetected events. Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) for dimensionality reduction, followed by Hierarchical Density-Based Spatial Clustering (HDBSCAN) for unsupervised event grouping, provided the best performance for seismic event detection. This approach effectively identified seismic events that would be difficult to observe using conventional methods. The proposed approach is well-suited for large-scale seismic monitoring applications where labelled data are limited and provides a broad application for geohazard detection and operational seismic analysis. 

How to cite: Chakraborty, A. and Sharma, M.: Detection of Seismic Events Using Semi-Supervised Learning , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5798, 2026.

EGU26-6122 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.2

Toward Robust Seismic Phase Picking in Realistic Multi-Event Scenarios 

Ching-Hung Wang, Wei-Hau Wang, and Hsue-Hyu Lu

Accurate and robust seismic phase picking remains a fundamental challenge in automated earthquake monitoring, particularly under complex waveform conditions. While recent deep learning models such as PhaseNet and EQTransformer have demonstrated strong performance on commonly used benchmark datasets, their architectural design choices introduce limitations in temporal resolution, sequence modeling, and generalization to more realistic seismic scenarios.

PhaseNet adopts a convolutional U-Net structure that is effective for waveform segmentation but is constrained by a fixed receptive field and limited dynamic temporal modeling. EQTransformer, in contrast, employs an encoder–attention–decoder architecture capable of capturing long-range dependencies, yet relies on aggressive temporal downsampling to alleviate the quadratic cost of self-attention. This heavy compression can discard fine-grained temporal information and degrade phase onset precision.

In this work, we present EQMamba, a sequence modeling framework for seismic phase picking that emphasizes temporal fidelity and efficient long-range dependency modeling. The proposed architecture integrates structured state-space models with efficient linear attention mechanisms, allowing long waveform sequences to be processed with minimal downsampling. By preserving high-resolution temporal information while maintaining computational tractability, EQMamba is designed to better reflect the continuous-time and dynamical nature of seismic signals.

Beyond controlled single-event settings, this study places particular emphasis on model behavior under more realistic waveform conditions, including event superposition, amplitude imbalance, and temporal interference between phases. We introduce a revised data construction and evaluation strategy to systematically probe robustness in multi-event and mainshock–aftershock scenarios, which are often underrepresented in standard benchmarks. Model performance is analyzed not only through conventional picking metrics, but also via error distributions, phase confusion patterns, and failure modes as waveform complexity increases.

 

How to cite: Wang, C.-H., Wang, W.-H., and Lu, H.-H.: Toward Robust Seismic Phase Picking in Realistic Multi-Event Scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6122, 2026.

EGU26-6784 | Posters on site | SM2.2

Machine learning to compute, from optical images, the horizontal ground displacement field caused by an earthquake 

Arthur Delorme, Ewelina Rupnik, Yann Klinger, and Marc Pierrot-Deseilligny

Optical images acquired by satellite are widely used to measure the displacement field caused by earthquakes co-seismic ruptures both in the near and the far field. So far, this technique relies mostly on image correlation to locate pixels from an image acquired before the event on another acquired after. However, such approach suffers from several limitations inherent in the correlation method used, such as the need for sufficient texture to make objects « recognizable » from one image to the other, or limited changes in the landscape over time, for the same reason. These limitations can lead to noisy results and even prevent any measurement from being made.
To overcome such limitations, machine learning can be used instead of correlation to train a model to compute displacement maps from a pair of images. Steady and significant progress have been made in machine learning technics, and especially for image processing and computer vision, in recent years, and they need to be adapted to our case study. First, a training dataset is carefully designed, to enable the network to learn how to measure pixel displacements in satellite images, with sub-pixel accuracy, in the most realistic way possible. Since no ground truth is available, we build synthetic examples, where a realistic and known deformation is applied to one of the images in a pair of 10-m-resolution Sentinel-2 satellite images, which originally contains no displacement. This realistic synthetic dataset is then used to feed a model.
Our network is capable of estimating a displacement field from images whose resolution differs signifiantly from that of the training dataset (for example, from a 0.5-m-resolution Pléiades image pair) and achieves results comparable to those of state-of-the-art methods, with even finer details, at both pixel and sub-pixel resolution levels. However, the ability of machine learning to overcome limitations due to landscape changes caused by time remains to be proven.

How to cite: Delorme, A., Rupnik, E., Klinger, Y., and Pierrot-Deseilligny, M.: Machine learning to compute, from optical images, the horizontal ground displacement field caused by an earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6784, 2026.

In a previous work, we established the predictive power of seismic statistical catalogue features for whole-region temporal forecasting. We here extend this framework to a spatiotemporal approach to assess localised seismic hazard in Japan and Chile. Using ensemble learning, we predict the occurrence of M>=5 earthquakes within a 15-day horizon across varying radial distances (r=3 to 24 km) to benchmark the framework's sensitivity as a proof-of-concept prior to scaling for larger magnitude hazards.

Results indicate robust predictive power, though performance is sensitive to the prediction radius. The Japan catalogue yields an AUC of 0.76 for predictions within 24 km. However, when the prediction radius is tightened to 12 km, while the model retains predictive power (AUC 0.62), the reduced performance underscores the challenge of highly localised forecasting. Crucially, we observe a distinct shift in feature importance as the spatial scale changes: parameters that track local variations in seismicity—specifically the b-value, within our feature set—rank significantly higher in localised models compared to whole-region baselines. This suggests that machine learning models can produce forecasts that reflect underlying physical fault processes.

We further present ongoing work regarding spatiotemporally overlapping predictions, testing the hypothesis that multiple alerts intersecting in both space and time indicate a compounded hazard probability. Finally, responding to the challenges of localised prediction, we introduce a novel experimental framework that augments our current statistical features by exploring additional spatial descriptors, including both deep learning representations and hand-crafted spatial features, designed to capture aspects of fault dynamics beyond standard catalogue statistics.

How to cite: Quan, W. and Gorse, D.: Leveraging the value of seismic catalogue features in building a spatiotemporal system to assess localised seismic hazard, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7938, 2026.

EGU26-8055 | Posters on site | SM2.2

QuakeMLab Phase I: Deep Learning-Based Automated Seismic Phase Picking Using PhaseNet 

Timur Tezel, Caner Erden, Hazal Arıkan, Muhammed Yusuf Küçükkara, Kenan Yanık, and Murat Utkucu

Phase picking in seismology is the first step of signal processing and locating a seismic event. At the beginning of seismological research, it is straightforward to manually pick P- and S-wave arrival times because the number of seismic stations is relatively small. Recently, instrumentation has improved, and the gap is lower than before. This widespread instrumentation creates problems for users who still have to pick manually, especially in national networks such as those in Türkiye. We used pre-trained deep learning models, trained on different seismic datasets, to estimate P- and S-wave arrival times for earthquakes in the Marmara Region, NW Türkiye. We compared these times with manual readings collected from the Ministry of Interior, the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, and the Earthquake Department (AFAD). The results indicate that PhaseNet produces arrival-time estimates that are largely consistent with expert manual readings, demonstrating its potential to substantially reduce analyst workload in large-scale seismic monitoring systems. The mean absolute error ranges from 6 to 14 seconds, and the number of total picks varies between 75,000 and 140,000 for both the P-wave and S-wave. This project has been supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye (TÜBİTAK) under grant 124E294, and the results have been shared on the website (https://quakemlab.sakarya.edu.tr)

How to cite: Tezel, T., Erden, C., Arıkan, H., Küçükkara, M. Y., Yanık, K., and Utkucu, M.: QuakeMLab Phase I: Deep Learning-Based Automated Seismic Phase Picking Using PhaseNet, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8055, 2026.

Seismic waveform tomography typically uses either traditional adjoint methods to compute gradients for model updates or neural-network-based (NN-based) methods to directly predict the model. However, adjoint methods require complex analytical derivations that must be reformulated for each combination of model parameters (velocity or attenuation), wave equations (elastic or viscoelastic), and misfit functions (waveform, travel time, differential time or amplitude). Here, we replace existing adjoint methods with automatic differentiation (AD), which computes accurate gradients of wave equation-based data misfits directly without any analytical derivations. Compared with NN-based methods (e.g. PINN or neural operator), our AD-based tomography framework is fully white-box and does not require any training datasets. We demonstrate both theoretically and numerically that gradients computed with AD are identical to those from adjoint methods, regardless of the domain, wave equation, or misfit function. For a field application, we apply ambient noise differential AD tomography to data from the Southeastern Suture of the Appalachian Margin Experiment (SESAME) and obtain three 2D Love-wave shear velocity (Vsh) models. The imaged Paleozoic suture zone, Mesozoic rift basins, and Moho interface are consistent with previous studies. Our results highlight the unifying role of AD in geophysical inverse problems beyond gradient computation, with promise for broader future applications across geoscience.

How to cite: Wang, X., Li, Z., and Liu, X.: A Unified Seismic Tomography Framework Using Automatic Differentiation Applied to the Southern Appalachian Array, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9203, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9203, 2026.

EGU26-10105 | ECS | Orals | SM2.2

Station-Level and Network-Wide SHAP Explanation of CNN Models for Seismic Cycle Monitoring: Evidence from Norcia 2016 

Francesco Marrocco, Michele Magrini, Laura Laurenti, Gabriele Paoletti, Elisa Tinti, and Chris Marone

Laboratory, theoretical and field data suggest that fault-zone properties should evolve during the seismic cycle as stress rises prior to failure and drops during earthquake rupture. Lab work shows systematic changes in elastic properties during the seismic cycle and that these changes can be used to predict lab earthquakes.  Recent work shows that in some cases these results are also applicable to tectonic faults. Seismic data show a clear distinction between fault zone properties pre and post mainshock, as well as post-seismic time-dependent changes in elastic properties. Here we extend these works by developing tools to distinguish seismic waves pre/post mainshock that are both predictive and physically interpretable. We train a convolutional neural network (CNN) on RGB spectrograms developed from three component seismograms recorded at seismic stations around the M6.5 2016 Norcia earthquake.  Our model can accurately distinguish foreshocks from aftershocks of the sequence. We train and test models on individual stations and also on all stations and subsets of the stations based on source-station geometry of the Norcia fault.  Models trained on the full set of stations achieve >99% accuracy for foreshock/aftershock classification and models trained on individual stations achieve higher accuracy in tests.  For each set we also performed the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) technique. We find that specific time-frequency signatures in the RGB spectrograms identify each class.  Here we extend that framework to a multi-station setting by training CNN models on spectrograms from several seismic stations surrounding the mainshock. While the multi-station model achieves high classification accuracy (about 97%), SHAP analysis reveals a substantial reorganization of feature importance, including strong station-dependent variability and a reduced contribution from aftershock-related regions.  Even for data from the reference station (NRCA), SHAP patterns differ markedly from those obtained in the single-station case, suggesting that heterogeneous training distributions alter global attribution mechanisms. To disentangle these effects, we additionally train station-wise CNN models, which achieve very high accuracy and produce more stable and physically coherent SHAP explanations. These results indicate that station-specific propagation effects play a key role in model interpretability and that caution is required when applying SHAP to models trained on spatially heterogeneous seismic datasets. The findings motivate future work toward hierarchical, region-aware, or physics-constrained interpretability frameworks.

How to cite: Marrocco, F., Magrini, M., Laurenti, L., Paoletti, G., Tinti, E., and Marone, C.: Station-Level and Network-Wide SHAP Explanation of CNN Models for Seismic Cycle Monitoring: Evidence from Norcia 2016, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10105, 2026.

EGU26-10510 | Posters on site | SM2.2

Stratigraphically Constrained Well-Log Data Augmentation for Angle-Stack AVO Forward Modelling 

Oleg Bokhonok, José Paulo Marchezi, Leidy Alexandra Delgado Blanco, Emilson Pereira Pereira Leite, Gelvam Hartman, and Alessandro Batezelli

Deep learning based seismic elastic inversion workflows strongly benefit from realistic synthetic angle-stack seismic data, especially where field data are limited or unavailable. This study presents a stratigraphically constrained workflow for exact Zoeppritz-based amplitude variation with offset (AVO) forward modelling using augmented well-log data. The methodology integrates P-wave velocity (Vp), S-wave velocity (Vs), and density (ρ) logs from real wells with interpreted seismic horizons to generate geologically consistent synthetic elastic models and angle-dependent seismic responses. Within each stratigraphic interval defined by seismic horizons, multivariate statistics of Vp, Vs, and ρ are estimated across all available wells, preserving intrinsic elastic parameter correlations. Synthetic wells are then generated through multivariate data augmentation conditioned to these statistics and constrained by the stratigraphic framework. The resulting well-log data are used for AVO forward modelling based on the exact Zoeppritz equations, computing angle-dependent P-wave reflection coefficients at elastic interfaces. These reflection coefficients are subsequently convolved with a seismic wavelet to generate synthetic angle stacks. The proposed workflow produces consistent sets of synthetic elastic wells logs and exact Zoeppritz-based angle-stack data, providing realistic and physically grounded training datasets for seismic elastic inversion.

How to cite: Bokhonok, O., Paulo Marchezi, J., Alexandra Delgado Blanco, L., Pereira Leite, E. P., Hartman, G., and Batezelli, A.: Stratigraphically Constrained Well-Log Data Augmentation for Angle-Stack AVO Forward Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10510, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10510, 2026.

EGU26-10548 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.2

Impact of Generative AI and Statistical Data Augmentation in Synthetic Well-Log Generation for Seismic Porosity Inversion: A Comparative Study 

José Paulo Marchezi, Emilson Leite, Oleg Bokhnok, Leidy Delgado, Gelvam Hartman, and Alessandro Batezelli

The characterization of reservoir properties from seismic data is often hindered by the scarcity and spatial bias of well-log data. To overcome these limitations, data augmentation (DA) has become essential for training robust Deep Learning models. This study presents a comparative analysis of three distinct DA approaches: Statistical Methods, Variational Autoencoders (VAE), and Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN. We synthesize well-log suites for training a UNet architecture dedicated to seismic-to-porosity prediction. Our workflow begins with real well logs, expanding the dataset through stochastic perturbations (Statistical), latent manifold sampling (VAE), and adversarial learning (GAN). To bridge the gap between 1-D well data and seismic volumes, we perform forward modeling on the augmented suites, generating synthetic seismograms via convolution with representative wavelets. A UNet-based convolutional neural network is then trained on these synthetic pairs to perform the non-linear mapping from seismic amplitudes to porosity. The performance of each method is evaluated through the geological plausibility of the generated logs and the inversion accuracy on a blind-test well. Preliminary results indicate that while statistical methods improve robustness against noise, generative models, particularly GANs, excel in capturing the multi-scale heterogeneity required for high-resolution reservoir characterization. This research demonstrates that the choice of DA is a critical geophysical decision; by integrating generative AI into the inversion workflow, we provide a scalable framework to improve porosity estimation in data-poor environments, ensuring that synthetic extensions remain grounded in petrophysical reality and stratigraphic consistency.

How to cite: Marchezi, J. P., Leite, E., Bokhnok, O., Delgado, L., Hartman, G., and Batezelli, A.: Impact of Generative AI and Statistical Data Augmentation in Synthetic Well-Log Generation for Seismic Porosity Inversion: A Comparative Study, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10548, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10548, 2026.

EGU26-10617 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.2

Earthquake phase picking in out-of-distribution data conditions: Can synthetic data from earthquake simulations help? 

Peifan Jiang, Janneke I. de Laat, Xuben Wang, and Islam Fadel

Deep learning has improved automated seismic phase picking in recent years. However, many pickers are trained on a single dataset and often fail to generalize when deployed on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Variations in earthquake magnitude, propagation distance, sensor instrumentation, and ambient noise between training and target domains lead to significant performance degradation under OOD conditions. To address this challenge, we propose a new framework to reduce performance degradation under OOD conditions based on a pipeline of seismic simulation -- phase labeling -- site-conditions simulation -- transfer learning. First, we use the seismic simulation tool AxiSEM3D to establish a 3-D waveform simulation, covering local, regional, and teleseismic scales. Next, we obtain precise P- and S-phase labels by computing theoretical arrival times from velocity models and refining these onsets with traditional automatic picking algorithms, ensuring high-fidelity phase annotations. Then, based on actual site conditions, we simulate instrument responses and synthesize ambient noise constrained by PPSD analysis. This gives us station-specific, noisy waveforms that closely match real observational conditions. Finally, we employ transfer learning to fine-tune a phase picker on this specific synthetic dataset, thereby enhancing the picker's performance in new conditions. The proposed framework aims to improve the ability of deep learning models to pick phases under OOD conditions. It enables reliable performance across regional variability and instrumentation differences without large-scale manual relabeling. It also reduces the amount of real data needed for training, making it useful for small datasets and leaving more data to analyse. Overall, this work introduces a transferable methodology for seismic phase picking under distribution shift and shows that physics-informed data augmentation combined with targeted transfer learning can effectively decrease OOD performance degradation, thereby increasing the applicability of deep-learning-based phase picking.

How to cite: Jiang, P., de Laat, J. I., Wang, X., and Fadel, I.: Earthquake phase picking in out-of-distribution data conditions: Can synthetic data from earthquake simulations help?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10617, 2026.

EGU26-10618 | Posters on site | SM2.2

Exploring Deep Learning Approaches for Seismic Detection and Discrimination in Norway 

Miguel Neves, Lars Ottemöller, and Stéphane Rondenay

Earthquake catalogs are essential for monitoring natural hazards and improving our understanding of seismic processes, which depend on accurate detection and classification of both natural earthquakes and anthropogenic signals. This is especially important in intraplate regions like Norway characterized by low to moderate earthquake activity, rare impactful earthquakes and widespread anthropogenic events such as quarry blasts. Nonetheless, traditional detection workflows have struggled to keep pace with the growing number of seismic stations and temporary deployments. Recent advances in machine learning offer promising solutions for efficient detection and discrimination tasks. Here, we present preliminary results toward a fully automated seismic detection and classification system for the Norwegian National Seismic Network (NNSN).

We first evaluate pre-trained deep learning-based phase detection models PhaseNet (Zhu & Beroza 2019) and Earthquake Transformer (EQT, Mousavi et al. 2020) using a catalog of 2567 events from the NNSN bulletin from 2008 to 2025, which includes 1144 earthquakes and 1423 blasts. We find the models can detect earthquake phases with F1-scores of 0.70 and 0.67, for the PhaseNet and EQT respectively, and 0.73 and 0.70 for blasts, revealing slightly higher sensitivity to blasts than earthquakes.

Building on this, and with the goal of developing a robust deep-learning earthquake detection workflow, we set out to quality-control our classification of earthquakes and blasts. We apply a self-supervised approach based on Bootstrap Your Own Latent (BYOL, Grill et al. 2020), which learns representations by aligning augmented views of the same signal, enabling learning without relying on potentially biased labels. The only information provided to the model are the training hyperparameters and the number of classes we aim to identify (two: earthquakes and blasts). Our method achieves an F1-score of 0.93 in distinguishing blasts from earthquakes using self-supervised representations, and up to 0.94 when incorporating an additional supervised layer. Analysis of the results reveals previously misclassified events, demonstrating the effectiveness of self-supervised methods even with limited or biased labeled datasets.

Future work will focus on retraining detection models using NNSN data after BYOL based classification. Additionally, we will analyze the BYOL learned features to gain insights on the physical differences between earthquake and blast signals.

How to cite: Neves, M., Ottemöller, L., and Rondenay, S.: Exploring Deep Learning Approaches for Seismic Detection and Discrimination in Norway, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10618, 2026.

EGU26-11584 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.2

Understanding Volcanic Seismic Patterns with Unsupervised ML Clustering: Application at Mount Etna volcano 

Waed Abed, Zahra Zali, Mariangela Sciotto, Ornella Cocina, Andrea Cannata, Matteo Picozzi, Patricia Martínez-Garzón, Alessandro Vuan, Angela Saraò, and Monica Sugan

Mount Etna, unlike many volcanoes that experience prolonged calm intervals, exhibits persistent and continuous activity characterized by frequent strombolian bursts, lava fountains, and effusive events. This study aims to automatically identify recurrent and distinctive patterns in seismic signals by extracting clusters of waveforms with similar spectral characteristics using a fully data-driven, unsupervised machine learning framework, and to assess their correspondence with observed volcanic activity.

We analyzed daily seismic spectrograms from two summit seismic stations, ECPN and ECNE, spanning November 2020 to November 2021, a period encompassing both quiet intervals and two major lava fountain cycles. For dimensionality reduction and feature extraction, we employed AutoencoderZ, an encoder–decoder model with skip connections, convolutional and fully connected layers, a bottleneck latent space, and transposed convolutions. This architecture compresses inputs while preserving critical spectral features for unsupervised clustering. Extracted features are optimized using the Relative Bias metric and clustered via Deep Embedded Clustering (DEC), enabling data-driven anomaly detection and pattern recognition by clustering similar waveforms.

The resulting clusters were compared with independent observational datasets and seismic related metrics, including lava fountain records, volcano-tectonic and long-period (LP) event catalogs, and root mean square (RMS) amplitude of volcanic tremor. This comparison demonstrates the approach’s ability to uncover hidden structures in the seismic data and highlight key temporal transitions associated with underlying processes such as magma and fluid dynamics . To improve robustness and reduce potential spatial bias, analyses were conducted using both single-station and dual-station approaches, providing a more reliable characterization of seismic variability.

Overall, this study highlights AutoencoderZ’s versatility in revealing complex patterns in Etna’s seismic activity.

How to cite: Abed, W., Zali, Z., Sciotto, M., Cocina, O., Cannata, A., Picozzi, M., Martínez-Garzón, P., Vuan, A., Saraò, A., and Sugan, M.: Understanding Volcanic Seismic Patterns with Unsupervised ML Clustering: Application at Mount Etna volcano, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11584, 2026.

EGU26-13291 | ECS | Orals | SM2.2

A Time-Series-Based Self-Supervised Learning Approach for the Exploration of Complex Seismological Datasets: Application to the Fani Maoré Submarine Volcano 

Joachim Rimpot, Lise Retailleau, Jean-Marie Saurel, Clément Hibert, Jean-Philippe Malet, Germain Forestier, and Jonathan Weber

The exploration and characterization of complex continuous seismological datasets remain challenging, particularly for highly active and/or noisy environments. Recently, several artificial intelligence based approaches have been proposed to facilitate the analysis of seismological data, either by characterizing detected events or continuous streams. Among these, we introduced an image-based self-supervised learning framework to explore continuous seismic records without requiring prior labeling or event detection. However, image-based representations may result in a loss of information, as they are derived transformations of the original raw seismic time series and may impact the discrimination of seismic events.

In this study, we adapted a self-supervised learning based clustering workflow to operate directly on multichannel seismic time series. The main challenge when using self-supervised contrastive learning approaches with time series is adapting the data augmentation techniques to ensure sufficient transformation without losing the physics contained in the seismological records. We leveraged the contrastive learning framework to analyse two months of continuous records from Ocean Bottom Seismometers deployed near the Fani Maoré submarine volcano, using data augmentation strategies consistent with seismological records, such as channel masking and window masking in the time and frequency domains. The model was trained using four-channel time series derived from the raw data (three-component seismometer and one hydrophone) using 60 s sliding windows with a 50% overlap, enabling the network to learn meaningful latent representations of the data. Clustering was then performed directly within the learned latent space, allowing the identification of distinct signal groups. Applied to the Fani Maoré dataset, this approach revealed several families of clusters, including very rare and previously undocumented events likely associated with the activity of the Fani Maoré submarine volcano.

How to cite: Rimpot, J., Retailleau, L., Saurel, J.-M., Hibert, C., Malet, J.-P., Forestier, G., and Weber, J.: A Time-Series-Based Self-Supervised Learning Approach for the Exploration of Complex Seismological Datasets: Application to the Fani Maoré Submarine Volcano, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13291, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13291, 2026.

EGU26-14499 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.2

Decoding the Dynamics of the 2021 Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba Submarine Eruption via Interpretable Spectral-Hilbert Representations (Spec2Vec) 

Sayan Swar, Tushar Mittal, and Tolulope Olugboji

Submarine volcanism represents one of the dominant forms of magmatic output on Earth, yet our understanding of the underlying eruptive processes remains limited compared to subaerial systems. The remote locations and lack of direct visual observations often obscure the dynamics of these eruptions, where the interaction with the hydrostatic load and phase changes (steam/water) creates distinct physical regimes. In the absence of near-field observations, far-field hydroacoustic records—propagated over thousands of kilometers in the SOFAR channel—provide a critical, high-temporal-resolution window into these deep-sea events. However, a significant challenge lies in processing the high volume of continuous data to categorize signals into physically meaningful regimes without relying on manual classification or subjective thresholds.

 

In this study, we present Spec2Vec, a novel framework for the unsupervised classification of hydroacoustic time series, applied to the major 2021 Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba shallow submarine eruption. Current unsupervised approaches in geo-acoustics often rely on decomposition methods like Non-Negative Matrix Factorization (e.g., SPECUFEX), Independent Component Analysis (ICA), the scattering transform, or latent representations from neural network auto-encoders. While effective, these methods can be computationally intensive or result in "black box" features lacking direct physical intuition. In contrast, Spec2Vec utilizes Hilbert space-filling curves to topologically map 2D time-frequency representations into a 1D sequence, strictly preserving multi-scale locality. From this linearized stream, we extract a compact set of entropy and scaling features. This approach captures the "texture" of the spectrogram—the specific arrangement of energy in time and frequency—more uniquely and efficiently than standard modal image features. The resulting feature space is fast to compute and highly interpretable, bridging the gap between raw acoustic data and physical source mechanics.

 

We evaluate this feature set by applying it to ten days of continuous hydroacoustic data from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) International Monitoring System (IMS), capturing the main eruption sequence as well as pre- and post-eruptive phases. Through unsupervised learning, Spec2Vec automatically organizes the complex acoustic stream into coherent clusters. To validate the physical interpretability of these clusters, we correlate the unsupervised classes with independent eruptive proxies, including satellite-derived lightning data, plume height, and mass eruption rates. Furthermore, we inject synthetic acoustic source models—simulating single bubble oscillations, turbulent jets, bubble plumes, hydroacoustic earthquakes, explosions, and volcanic tremor—into the dataset to map clusters to specific source mechanisms.

 

Our results offer a rare, data-driven characterization of the Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruption, identifying distinct phases of jetting and tremor that align with atmospheric observations. This demonstrates that Spec2Vec serves not merely as a feature generation tool, but as a generalizable engine for the automated discovery of physical processes in complex geophysical time series. This approach holds significant potential for scaling the analysis of global hydrophone datasets, enabling the systematic distinction and quantification of eruption rates and processes across the global submarine volcanic inventory.

How to cite: Swar, S., Mittal, T., and Olugboji, T.: Decoding the Dynamics of the 2021 Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba Submarine Eruption via Interpretable Spectral-Hilbert Representations (Spec2Vec), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14499, 2026.

EGU26-17302 | ECS | Orals | SM2.2

Towards Operational Earthquake Data Denoising 

Nikolaj Dahmen, John Clinton, Men-Andrin Meier, and Luca Scarabello

Earthquake catalogues are derived from continuous seismic recordings through signal detection, phase picking, association, location, and magnitude estimation, but pervasive noise still limits reliable automation, especially for small events and noisy stations, and often requires manual review. Building on the demonstration that deep-learning denoising can be applied to continuous data to improve network-wide earthquake monitoring (Dahmen et al., 2026), we advance toward operational deployment by (i) implementing denoising within the SeisComP ecosystem (Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, 2008), (ii)  evaluating on larger continuous datasets, and (iii) systematically comparing multiple denoising approaches and testing monitoring-driven methodological refinements.

We train and compare multiple denoising models using a dedicated, curated training and benchmarking dataset composed of earthquake signals and noise recordings from Switzerland and its border regions, with event waveforms pre-cleaned to enhance label quality. Denoised waveforms are then propagated through an end-to-end monitoring workflow spanning signal detection, continuous waveform denoising, phase picking with arrival-time uncertainty estimation and peak amplitude estimation, and final catalog generation. The performance is benchmarked with monitoring-relevant metrics such as signal detection capability, waveform fidelity, phase-pick quality, and the reliability of amplitude estimation, thereby quantifying, for each denoiser, the trade-offs and improvements relative to standard digital filters and relative to applying common phase pickers to raw versus denoised data.

A case study using continuous data in realistic settings shows that catalogues based on denoised data can contain significantly more detected events with more associated phase picks, improved location quality, and more reliable magnitude estimates than catalogs derived from raw data, ultimately extending catalogue depth toward smaller magnitudes while preserving reliability.

This work is carried out within TRANSFORM², funded by the European Commission under project number 101188365 within the HORIZON-INFRA-2024-DEV-01-01 call.

 

References:

Dahmen, N., J. Clinton, M.-A. Meier, and L. Scarabello, 2026, Toward Operational Earthquake Seismogram Denoising, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., XX, 1–23, doi: 10.1785/0120250198

Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (2008). The SeisComP seismological software package, GFZ Data Services.

How to cite: Dahmen, N., Clinton, J., Meier, M.-A., and Scarabello, L.: Towards Operational Earthquake Data Denoising, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17302, 2026.

Understanding earthquake rupture directivity is crucial for constraining source physics and improving seismic hazard assessment. In an ideal setting, one would analyze far-field seismograms free from subsurface scattering, travel-time uncertainties, and ambient noise, enabling direct inference of rupture directivity from the observed waveforms. In practice, however, recorded seismograms are strongly influenced by path effects, site responses, and additive noise, while station azimuthal coverage is often sparse and uneven. These limitations significantly complicate directivity analysis, particularly for 1) low-magnitude noisy events and 2) earthquakes with complex rupture processes, for which simple source–path deconvolution models are inadequate.

We employ a conditional Diffusion Transformer (DiT) to learn the dependence of far-field seismograms on the P-ray take-off direction. The DiT is trained on measured far-field seismograms from multiple earthquakes with moment magnitudes Mw ≥ 6.0. Once trained, the model generates virtual far-field seismograms conditioned on specified ray azimuth and take-off angle, while holding an empirical realization of the path effects fixed by conditioning on a reference observed seismogram. This enables controlled experiments in which variations attributable to source directivity can be examined independently of path-induced variability. In this sense, our approach closely mimics the idealized setting in which far-field seismograms vary only with source directivity and are free from complex path effects. In other words, this generative framework enables us to isolate and examine variations in the wavefield that are attributable solely to source directivity, while holding path effects constant. We demonstrate that this approach is particularly effective for earthquakes with complex multi-episode moment release. For all events considered, the generated wavefields vary smoothly with take-off direction, indicating physical consistency. Importantly, the DiT training is self-supervised, requiring neither synthetic earthquake simulations nor explicit correction for path effects. The proposed framework provides a scalable and physically consistent tool for investigating earthquake directivity and rupture complexity across a wide range of magnitudes.

How to cite: Gupta, P. and Bharadwaj, P.: Understanding the directivity of earthquakes by generating virtual far-field seismograms conditioned on the P-ray take-off direction  , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18002, 2026.

EGU26-18532 | Posters on site | SM2.2

Source Characterization via Deep Learning: Integrating Polarity Prediction and Focal Mechanism Estimation 

Flavia Tavani, Laura Scognamiglio, Pietro Artale Harris, and Men-Andrin Meier

In modern seismology, the rapid and accurate characterization of seismic sources following an earthquake is a fundamental task. Most observatories currently compute moment tensor solutions for events exceeding specific magnitude thresholds to ensure reliability. For instance, the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) provides routine solutions for moderate to large events (Mw​≥3.5) using established methods (Scognamiglio et al., 2009). However, characterizing smaller events remains challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios and the need of modeling high-frequency waveforms that requires detailed knowledge of the velocity model, which is rarely available.

Machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as powerful tools to address these limitations, particularly in improving the prediction of first-arrival seismic wave polarities. These ML-derived polarities can be effectively integrated into traditional frameworks to compute robust focal mechanisms. In this study, we implement a workflow that bridges deep learning polarity predictions with standard focal mechanism estimation techniques, focusing on the tectonic setting of the Italian Peninsula.

Our methodology consists of two primary stages. First, we trained a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for polarity prediction using the INSTANCE catalog (Michelini et al., 2021), which provides the high-quality, manually reviewed data essential for supervised learning. Second, we validated the model’s performance by analyzing approximately 4,700 earthquakes that occurred in Italy between January 1 2021, and January 1 2025, with magnitudes below 4.5.

To benchmark our results, we selected a subset of earthquakes with existing Time Domain Moment Tensor (TDMT) solutions (Scognamiglio et al., 2006). Using the polarities predicted by the CNN, we computed focal mechanisms using the SKHASH code (Skoumal et al., 2024). The accuracy of these solutions was then evaluated against the TDMT catalog using Kagan angle analysis (Kagan, 1991) to quantify the rotation between double-couple sources.

How to cite: Tavani, F., Scognamiglio, L., Artale Harris, P., and Meier, M.-A.: Source Characterization via Deep Learning: Integrating Polarity Prediction and Focal Mechanism Estimation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18532, 2026.

EGU26-18544 | Orals | SM2.2

Deep Learning Models for Seismic Continuous Data Analysis Developed in STAR-E Project 

Hiromichi Nagao, Gerardo Manuel Mendo Pérez, Shinya Katoh, and Toshiro Kusui

The STAR-E Project that aims to develop state-of-the-art information science techniques, including artificial intelligence, applicable in seismology is going on in Japan, supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). We introduce our various activities in the SYNTHA-Seis, which is one of the research teams in the STAR-E Project. We have been developing deep learning models to detect earthquake signals in seismic continuous waveforms, such as for phase-picking (Tokuda and Nagao, 2023; Katoh et al., 2025; Gerardo Mendo et al., submitted) and for P-wave polarity determination with UQ using the Monte Carlo dropout method (Katoh et al., 2025). We have also been developing methods to extract waveform features of low-frequency tremors (LFTs), such as a template matching technique to extract LFTs waveforms (Gerardo Mendo et al., 2025), a deep learning model to detect LFTs in historical paper records obtained by mechanical seismograms more than fifty years ago (Kaneko et al., 2023), and a deep learning technique to acquire a stochastic differential equation expression of LFTs (Kusui et al., 2025). We also discuss the future direction of AI seismology in Japan.

How to cite: Nagao, H., Mendo Pérez, G. M., Katoh, S., and Kusui, T.: Deep Learning Models for Seismic Continuous Data Analysis Developed in STAR-E Project, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18544, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18544, 2026.

EGU26-18748 | ECS | Orals | SM2.2

AI Framework for Ground-Motion Prediction Across the Italian Seismic Network 

Aurora Bassani, Daniele Trappolini, Alessandro Scifoni, Giulio Poggiali, Elisa Tinti, Fabio Galasso, Alberto Michelini, and Chris Marone

Estimating ground‐motion intensity at individual seismic stations is a fundamental task in seismology, with direct implications for seismic hazard assessment.
Ground‐motion intensity measures (IMs) such as Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), and Spectral Acceleration (SA) at selected periods are commonly used to quantify shaking severity and relate it to building structural response and seismic hazard.

Here, we present an AI-driven framework for predicting multiple IMs at the station level, building on previous graph-based approaches for the Italian seismic network.
Starting from the INSTANCE dataset, we applied filters on event magnitude (≥ 3) and waveform quality, resulting in 3076 events recorded across 565 stations. For waveform analysis, we used a 10-second time window starting 1 second before the first P-wave arrival, balancing prediction speed and accuracy.

Seismic waveforms are first encoded using a pre-trained PhaseNet model to extract compact temporal representations. Spatial dependencies are modeled with a masked Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) based on Delaunay triangulation, which links each station to its nearest neighbors while avoiding long or crossing edges. This structure allows identification of border stations (at mesh edges) and coastal stations (within 15 km of the coastline). A binary mask distinguishes these nodes, helping the model account for areas with high azimuthal gap, which can make IMs estimation more challenging.

Before the final prediction layer, the model concatenates the maximum waveform amplitude across stations with event metadata predicted by a fine-tuned LLM for magnitude and location estimation.
This enables joint exploitation of temporal waveform features, network geometry, and global event information.

The framework predicts PGA, PGV, and SA at periods of 0.3, 1, and 3 s at all stations. We obtained preliminary results for multiple configurations. The baseline model served as reference, which included waveform representations and the GCN but not LLM metadata, border features, or weighted loss. Including LLM-derived metadata consistently improved performance across all regions and parameters, reducing relative errors by 14% in Southern Italy and over 27% in Northern Italy. The addition of border and coastal features provided only minor improvements, confirming that metadata was the main factor driving gains.

Applying a weighted loss emphasizing stations closer to the epicenter further improved predictions, particularly in Northern and Southern Italy. In Central Italy, where network coverage is denser, improvements were smaller, suggesting that local contributions were already well captured. For the best configuration (LLM metadata and weighted loss), global mean absolute errors across stations were 0.511 (PGA), 0.423 (PGV), 0.514 (SA0.3), 0.447 (SA1.0), and 0.397 (SA3.0), demonstrating the model’s predictive accuracy.

Overall, these preliminary results show that combining waveform features, network topology, and LLM-informed event metadata can substantially enhance station-level IMs estimation, achieving better results in challenging conditions (north or south Italy) with respect to previous similar approaches. This method has potential for rapid earthquake characterization and early warning, where timely and accurate ground-motion predictions are essential.

How to cite: Bassani, A., Trappolini, D., Scifoni, A., Poggiali, G., Tinti, E., Galasso, F., Michelini, A., and Marone, C.: AI Framework for Ground-Motion Prediction Across the Italian Seismic Network, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18748, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18748, 2026.

EGU26-20316 | ECS | Orals | SM2.2

Physics-Informed U-Net Fourier Neural Operator for DAS Microseismic Localization at Utah FORGE 

Basem Al-Qadasi and Umair Bin Waheed

Microseismic source localization is a key diagnostic in stimulated reservoirs, supporting spa-
tiotemporal tracking of fracture activation, stress transfer, and operational risk. Distributed Acoustic
Sensing (DAS) provides dense strain-rate observations along fiber-optic cables, but the resulting data
volume and strong near-well heterogeneity motivate localization workflows that are both fast and
physically constrained. We present an Eikonal-regularized U-Net Fourier Neural Operator (U-FNO)
that predicts full first-arrival traveltime fields for a given source location in a known 2-D velocity
model. The architecture combines Fourier-domain operator learning to capture long-range kinematic
structure with a multiscale encoder–decoder to recover spatial detail. Training is guided by an
Eikonal-consistency loss, complemented by source anchoring and a non-negativity constraint to
encourage physically admissible solutions. We benchmark U-FNO against a vanilla FNO baseline
and fast-marching traveltime solutions across velocity models of increasing complexity (smooth
gradient, Marmousi, and Utah FORGE). In the FORGE model, U-FNO reduces traveltime RMSE
by up to 97% relative to the baseline and reaches comparable misfit in up to 50% fewer training time.
Field transferability is assessed using 15 DAS-recorded events from the Utah FORGE microseismic
catalogue. Models are fine-tuned on four events and evaluated on the remaining events. U-FNO converges
within 2 minutes (versus 45 minutes for FNO) and reduces the mean location error from 33.71 m to
29.28 m. These results indicate that physics-regularized neural operators with multiscale structure can
deliver accurate, scalable, near-real-time localization for high-volume DAS monitoring in complex
geothermal settings.

How to cite: Al-Qadasi, B. and Bin Waheed, U.: Physics-Informed U-Net Fourier Neural Operator for DAS Microseismic Localization at Utah FORGE, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20316, 2026.

EGU26-20854 | Posters on site | SM2.2

Completing Indonesia Earthquake Catalog for Better Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard Assessments 

Andrean V H Simanjuntak, Dwa Desa Warnana, Bayu Pranata, Pepen Supendi, Daryono Daryono, Martin Mai, Nelly F. Riama, and Kadek Hendrawan Palgunadi

Indonesia is located in one of the most seismically active regions in the world and is monitored by more than 550 broadband and short-period seismic sensors. On average, around 40,000 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 2 occur each year. However, this number of earthquakes with magnitudes larger than 2 has only been observable in recent years due to the significant expansion of the seismic network, for example in 2025. In earlier years, the recorded number of earthquakes was significantly lower, with the magnitude of completeness (Mc) reaching only about 4. Completing earthquake catalogs in a region is extremely important for revealing detailed main and secondary fault structures, which is essential for improved earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment. Recently, earthquake event recognition and phase picking using machine learning (ML) have proven highly successful in detecting smaller-magnitude earthquakes that are often overlooked by conventional methods such as STA/LTA. This study presents high-resolution earthquake catalogs generated using ML-based earthquake detection. The ML algorithms were pre-trained across various regions, tectonic settings, and environmental conditions using data from the last decade of combined BMKG and temporary seismic networks across Indonesia. We compare a three-catalog framework consisting of ML-derived, real-time, and analyst-reviewed catalogs. The results show that ML-based detection identifies significantly more earthquakes at lower magnitudes, with Mc reaching approximately 2, compared to real-time processing and human-reviewed catalogs. Using a recently published ML-based focal mechanism model, our results also show a substantially larger focal mechanism catalog, including many events with magnitudes smaller than 5 that are often not reviewed in conventional processing. This study demonstrates the importance of ML-based earthquake detection in improving the efficiency and completeness of earthquake detection and highlights its strong potential for operational integration into Indonesia’s seismic monitoring systems.

How to cite: Simanjuntak, A. V. H., Warnana, D. D., Pranata, B., Supendi, P., Daryono, D., Mai, M., Riama, N. F., and Palgunadi, K. H.: Completing Indonesia Earthquake Catalog for Better Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard Assessments, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20854, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20854, 2026.

EGU26-21987 | ECS | Orals | SM2.2

Joint Inversion of GPR and VES Data Using Physics-Guided Siamese Networks 

Hemen Gogoi, Probal Sengupta, Chiranjib Hazarika, and Ankit Dipta Dutta

Accurate delineation of subsurface lithological and structural characteristics is essential for applications ranging from groundwater exploration to environmental geophysics. Traditional single-modality inversion techniques often suffer from resolution trade-offs and ambiguity in petrophysical interpretation. In this work, we propose a novel multimodal deep learning framework for the joint inversion of Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) and Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) data, enabled through physics-informed Siamese neural network architecture. This network is explicitly designed to learn shared subsurface representations by encoding signal-specific features via dual 1D convolutional pathway, which are subsequently fused into a common latent embedding. From this shared space, the network predicts three key geophysical outputs: (i) layer-wise resistivity, (ii) normalized thicknesses , and (iii) geological model classification from eight lithological types.

To ensure physical consistency between modalities, the architecture incorporates an empirical dielectric–resistivity relationship derived from soil physics literature as a physics-informed regularization loss, coupling the inferred resistivity profile with dielectric behavior. The resistivity head uses a Huber loss on log-transformed outputs to reduce the effect of noise and outliers, while the thickness head is stabilized with Batch Normalization and dropout layers to prevent over fitting. A multi-class cross-entropy loss is used for geological classification, and a joint loss function ensures simultaneous optimization across modalities.

Training is conducted on a synthetically generated dataset comprising 24,000 4-layer models, covering diverse resistivity-thickness scenarios and geological facies. A dedicated subset includes thin-layer configurations, simulating challenging cases where GPR contributes enhanced resolution beyond VES capabilities. The network achieves a classification accuracy of 95.4%, a resistivity RMSE of 1.76 Ω·m, and thickness RMSE of 1.85 m on unseen validation data, validating its predictive performance. An ablation study with three independent random seeds (42, 123, 2025) confirms the network’s stability and generalizability.

Visual comparison of predicted vs. true resistivity and thickness profiles exhibits strong structural alignment, even in geologically complex models. Further, input-output attention diagnostics and multimodal fusion behavior reveal interpretable latent correlations between GPR and VES responses.

This work introduces a scalable and domain-aware inversion framework that learns geophysical realism, respects petrophysical coupling laws, and demonstrates potential for field-deployable AI-assisted subsurface mapping. The integration of empirical physics, attention mechanisms, and synthetic realism places this methodology at the frontier of modern geophysical inversion strategies.

How to cite: Gogoi, H., Sengupta, P., Hazarika, C., and Dutta, A. D.: Joint Inversion of GPR and VES Data Using Physics-Guided Siamese Networks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21987, 2026.

EGU26-780 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.3

Uncertainty Quantification in Full Waveform Inversion: Linearised versus Fully Nonlinear Methods 

Xuebin Zhao and Andrew Curtis

Seismic full waveform inversion (FWI) is a powerful technique that uses seismic waveform data to generate high resolution images of the Earth's interior. However, significant uncertainties exist in FWI solutions due to imperfect acquisition geometries, inherent noise in the data, and the nonlinearity of the forward problem. Probabilistic Bayesian FWI estimates the family of all possible model solutions and quantifies their uncertainties by calculating the so-called posterior probability density function (pdf) of model parameter values of interest. In a linearised framework, the posterior pdf can be represented as a Gaussian distribution centred around the maximum a posteriori (MAP) solution, and the associated uncertainties are described by an a posteriori covariance matrix derived from the inverse Hessian matrix. Recent advancements have introduced nonlinear methods, such as variational inference, to solve Bayesian FWI problems efficiently. Their solutions quantify full uncertainties including those created by the nonlinearity of the problem. In this study, we apply both linearised and fully nonlinear methods to 2D acoustic Bayesian FWI problems. In particular, we use a physically structured variational inference algorithm for the nonlinear case, in which a transformed Gaussian distribution is optimised to approximate the full posterior pdf, such that the results can be compared fairly with those from the linearised, Gaussian-based method. We also employ an independent nonlinear variational algorithm – Stein variational gradient descent – for validation. The results show that while both linearised and nonlinear methods adequately recover the posterior mean models, they exhibit significantly different posterior uncertainty structures, especially at layer interfaces, due to the linearisation of wave physics. In addition, we show that linearised uncertainties are inaccurate since they can not fit observed waveform data and they yield biased estimates of inferred meta-properties such as volumes of geological bodies. This work therefore justifies the application of fully nonlinear inversion methods in Bayesian FWI if accurate uncertainty estimates are needed.

How to cite: Zhao, X. and Curtis, A.: Uncertainty Quantification in Full Waveform Inversion: Linearised versus Fully Nonlinear Methods, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-780, 2026.

EGU26-1022 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.3

Bayesian Model Comparison of Inner Core Anisotropy Models 

Auggie Marignier, Ben Lambert, Malcolm Sambridge, and Paula Koelemeijer

Tomography models of the inner core commonly assume a model of anisotropy that is transversely isotropic with a fast direction parallel to the Earth's rotation axis.  However, decades of debate have proposed various forms of this anisotropy, including the presence of a distinct innermost inner core or rotations of the direction of the fast axis.  These assumputions have yet to be directly compared to determine which is best supported by the available data.  Bayesian model comparison via the Bayesian Evidence provides this assessment but has historically been difficult to calculate, particularly in high-dimesional settings, and thus largely ignored in seismic tomography. New machine learning-based techniques can now be used to estimate the Evidence with greater stability and less uncertainty. In this work I demonstrate various methods, including the Savage-Dickey Density Ratio, the learnt harmonic mean estimator and trans-conceptual sampling, applied to the comparison of inner core anisotropy tomography models.

How to cite: Marignier, A., Lambert, B., Sambridge, M., and Koelemeijer, P.: Bayesian Model Comparison of Inner Core Anisotropy Models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1022, 2026.

EGU26-1642 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.3

A Community Monte Carlo Approach for Quantifying Subjectivity-Driven Ensemble Uncertainty in Inverse Problems  

Noami Kaplunov and Andreas Fichtner

Solving inverse problems allows for the estimation of system properties or model parameters that cannot be measured directly. However, the models arising from various experts differ more than their individual uncertainty estimates might suggest [1]. A crucial reason for this is the combined impact of many small subjective choices undertaken during the inversion procedure. This includes a) the selected subset of data, b) the model space parametrisation, c) the type of forward model, d) the chosen numerical and optimisation methods, and e) regularisation.

In this work, we present an adapted Bayesian inference method that explicitly incorporates these subjective choices – collectively referred to as the control parameters – as a random variable to obtain estimates of ensemble statistics. It can be shown that, while the ensemble model me may be computed simply by averaging over N individual models mi (i = 1, 2, ..., N), the ensemble covariance Ce consists of a sum of two terms,

The first term represents the mean of individual posterior covariances Ci, and the second term represents the variance of the mean models.

The theoretical developments are illustrated with a novel small-scale "Community Monte Carlo" experiment, where a group of experts was asked to select suitable regularisation (tuning) parameters to obtain a solution to a linear straight-ray tomography problem. The regularisation parameters include, e.g., the data prior standard deviation σD and the model prior standard deviation σM.

Crucially, the computation of ensemble estimates reveals that the average of individual covariances – the first term in eq. (1) – dominates the ensemble covariance. This is due to individuals favouring smaller values of σM, resulting in similar-looking models that deviate minimally from the prior, and larger data errors σD, leading to comparatively large posterior covariance matrices tending towards the prior model covariance.

Our proof-of-concept suggests that the field of seismic tomography should not strive for consensus among models, which risks condensing the ensemble and producing overly optimistic uncertainty estimates. Instead, the diversity of expert-derived models can be seen as an opportunity for "Community Monte Carlo," emphasising the need to actively explore a broader range of plausible subjective choices and rigorously quantify their effect on model uncertainty.

References:

[1] Andreas Fichtner, Jeroen Ritsema, Solvi Thrastarson; A high-resolution discourse on seismic tomography. Proc. A 1 August 2025; 481 (2320): 20240955. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2024.0955

How to cite: Kaplunov, N. and Fichtner, A.: A Community Monte Carlo Approach for Quantifying Subjectivity-Driven Ensemble Uncertainty in Inverse Problems , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1642, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1642, 2026.

EGU26-2663 | Posters on site | SM2.3

Trans-Conceptual Inversion: Bayesian Inference with Competing Assumptions 

Malcolm Sambridge, Andrew Valentine, and Juerg Hauser

Over the past several decades Trans-dimensional Bayesian sampling has been widely applied in the geosciences. Most implementations have used the Reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (Rj-McMC) algorithm. This approach allows sampling across variably dimensioned model parameterizations and hierarchical noise models. Due to practical limitations Reversible-Jump is restricted to cases where the number of free parameters changes in a regular sequence, usually by addition or subtraction of a single variable. Furthermore, jumps between model dimensions rely on bespoke mathematical transformations that are only valid within a particular parametrization class. As a result, the range of model classes that can be practically considered is limited, and McMC balance conditions must be rederived for each class of problem. A framework for Trans-conceptual Bayesian sampling, which is a generalization of trans-dimensional sampling, is presented. Trans-C Bayesian inversion allows exploration across a finite, but arbitrary, set of conceptual models, i.e. ones where the number of variables, the type of model basis function, nature of the forward problem, and even assumptions on the class of measurement noise statistics, may all vary independently.

A key feature of the new framework is that it avoids parameter transformations and thereby lends itself to development of automatic McMC algorithms, i.e. where the details of the sampler do not require knowledge of the parameterization details. Algorithms implementing Bayesian conceptual model sampling are illustrated with examples drawn from geophysics, using real and synthetic data. Comparison with reversible-jump illustrates that trans-C sampling produces statistically identical results for situations where the former is applicable, but also allows sampling in situations where trans-D would be impractical, including asking the data to choose between competing forward models.

How to cite: Sambridge, M., Valentine, A., and Hauser, J.: Trans-Conceptual Inversion: Bayesian Inference with Competing Assumptions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2663, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2663, 2026.

EGU26-3644 | Posters on site | SM2.3

CoFI - The Common Framework for Inference: A software platform for experimentation, education and application of geophysical inversion tools 

Malcolm Sambridge, Jiawen He, Kit Chaivannacoopt, Juerg Hauser, Michael Koch, Fabrizio Magrini, Augustin Marignier, and Andrew Valentine

Inference problems within the geosciences vary considerably in terms of size and scope, ranging from the detection of changepoints in 1D time/depth models, to the construction of complex 3D or 4D models of the Earth. Solving an inverse problem typically requires fusing various classes of data, each associated with its own forward model. The choice of an appropriate inference method is itself not obvious. An investment of much time effort and is required in software development and education. Many researchers have developed bespoke inversion and parameter estimation algorithms tailored to their specific needs. Associated software is then typically bespoke to the particular application, often requiring significant investment by new researchers to master with minimal documentation. This is entirely understandable as generalisation and ongoing support of inference codes requires significant time and effort that is frequently beyond the primary objectives of the research. As a result the all important experimentation often required to choose an appropriate inversion method for a new data set or domain, is often not practical. Furthermore design choices made in existing software implementations often dictate those by subsequent researchers and influence the scientific direction taken.

 

The Common Framework for Inference, CoFI, is an open source project which aims to capture inherent commonalities present in all types of inverse problems, independent of the specific methods employed to solve them. CoFl is codifies the definition of an inference problem and then provides an interface to reliable and sophisticated third-party packages, such as SciPy and PyTorch, to tackle inverse problems across a broad range. The modular and object-oriented design of CoFI, supplemented by a comprehensive suite of tutorials and practical examples, ensures its accessibility to users of all skill levels, from experts to novices. This not only has the potential to streamline research and promote best practice but also to support education and STEM training. This poster gives an overview of CoFl through domain relevant examples, from optimisation to probabilistic sampling.  With a focus on CoFI’s modular approach we hope to foster collaboration centred around interaction by expanding the set of inference algorithms and domain-relevant examples.

 

How to cite: Sambridge, M., He, J., Chaivannacoopt, K., Hauser, J., Koch, M., Magrini, F., Marignier, A., and Valentine, A.: CoFI - The Common Framework for Inference: A software platform for experimentation, education and application of geophysical inversion tools, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3644, 2026.

EGU26-5013 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.3

Think first, discretize later 

Marin Adrian Mag, David Al-Attar, Paula Koelemeijer, and Christophe Zaroli

A fundamental challenge in inverse problems is non-uniqueness: many models may fit a given data set exactly, or within observational uncertainty. A common remedy is the introduction of additional constraints encoding prior beliefs about the true model. Such explicit regularization mechanisms typically receive the most attention in inverse-problem research. However, it is well known that inversions may also be influenced by implicit sources of regularization. Discretization is perhaps the most prominent example, often introducing unintended and opaque prior assumptions.

 

Discretizations are commonly adopted for computational convenience and to avoid the theoretical complexities associated with models defined as functions. This practice, if done too early, can obscure fundamental questions concerning probabilities, regularity, and boundary behavior of the model. Although discretization may appear to eliminate these difficulties, it in fact makes choices for us that are often left unexamined.

 

In this contribution, we demonstrate that for linear(ised) problems in seismology, the undiscretized formulation can be treated rigorously using well-established theoretical tools. This perspective exposes hidden assumptions embedded in standard inversion workflows and allows prior choices to be made explicit and transparent. Although discretization is unavoidable in practice, we show that how and when it is introduced plays a crucial role, both for ensuring correct convergence and for computational efficiency.

 

Rather than attempting a fully rigorous solution of infinite-dimensional inverse problems—which can be expensive—we focus instead on probabilistic linear inference. Unlike classical inversion, linear inference targets specific properties of the model rather than a particular model realization. These quantities of interest are exactly representable in finite-dimensional spaces without discretizing the model itself. As a result, our framework delivers complete and mathematically consistent answers at reduced computational cost. We illustrate the proposed approach with synthetic inversion and inference examples in 1D.

 

How to cite: Mag, M. A., Al-Attar, D., Koelemeijer, P., and Zaroli, C.: Think first, discretize later, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5013, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5013, 2026.

EGU26-7770 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.3

Earth’s Mid-mantle via Probabilistic Array Imaging  

Steve Carr and Tolulope Olugboji

The Earth’s mid-mantle (800–1200 km depth) hosts enigmatic seismic discontinuities whose physical origins remain debated. Competing hypotheses attribute these features to either thermal anomalies, such as partial melting due to volatile transport, or compositional heterogeneities associated with ancient subducted crust. However, distinguishing between these scenarios remains a challenge; standard imaging techniques often fail to robustly resolve the polarity of weak seismic reflections amidst noise and reverberations that contaminate mid-mantle reflections. Consequently, previous global surveys relying on linear time-domain stacking have yielded only a fragmented perspective, where the global connectivity, topography, and distinct physical origin of mid-mantle discontinuities remain debated. To address these limitations, we present a new global imaging framework that integrates curvelet-based wavefield separation and deconvolution, with probabilistic array processing. Rather than relying on traditional linear stacking, we develop "probabilistic vespagrams" that rigorously account for uncertainties in signal coherence and wavelet estimation. This approach allows us to distinguish robust structural features from processing artifacts. We apply this workflow to a global dataset of SS and PP precursors to construct a probability map of mid-mantle discontinuities. By systematically quantifying the likelihood of positive (eclogitic/compositional) versus negative (thermal/melt) impedance contrasts globally, we aim to resolve the global distribution of mid-mantle heterogeneities and determine the relative dominance of compositional stratification versus partial melting by water transport in controlling deep-Earth dynamics

How to cite: Carr, S. and Olugboji, T.: Earth’s Mid-mantle via Probabilistic Array Imaging , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7770, 2026.

EGU26-11966 | Posters on site | SM2.3

Reverend Bayes, we have a problem - and a solution 

Andrew Curtis, Klaus Mosegaard, and Xuebin Zhao

Geoscientists often solve inverse problems to estimate values of parameters of interest given relevant data sets. Bayesian inference solves these problems by combining probability distributions that describe uncertainties in both observations and unknown parameters, and we require that the solution provides unbiased uncertainty estimates in order to inform evidence- or risk-based decisions. It has been known for over a century that employing different, but equivalent parametrisations of the same information can yield conditional probabilities that are mathematically inconsistent, a property referred to as the BK-inconsistency. Recently this inconsistency was shown to invalidate the solutions to physical problems found using several well-established methods of Bayesian inference. This talk explores the extent to which this inconsistency affects solutions to common geophysical problems. We demonstrate that changes in parametrisations result in inconsistent conditional prior probability densities, even though they represent exactly the same prior information. These inconsistent prior distributions can change Bayesian posterior solutions dramatically across various geoscientific problems including seismic impedance inversion, surface wave dispersion inversion, and travel time tomography, using real and synthetic data. Significantly different posterior statistics are obtained, including for maximum a posteriori (MAP) solutions, mean estimates, standard deviations, and full posterior distributions. Given that deterministic inversion is often equivalent to finding the MAP solution to specific Bayesian problems (the mathematical equations to be solved are identical), the BK-inconsistency also results in inconsistent solutions to deterministic inverse problems. Indeed, we show that solutions can potentially be designed, simply by changing the parametrisation. This study highlights that a careful rethinking of Bayesian inference and deterministic inversion may be required in physical problems, and we present one possible consistent method of solution.

How to cite: Curtis, A., Mosegaard, K., and Zhao, X.: Reverend Bayes, we have a problem - and a solution, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11966, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11966, 2026.

EGU26-21245 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.3

A reverse-time source-point gather framework for evaluating 3-D crustal velocity models using ambient-noise surface waves 

Tong Li, Xi Li, Xinsong Wang, Wei Zhang, Ying Liu, and Huajian Yao

Reliable evaluation of three-dimensional seismic velocity models is critical for wave-propagation simulations and seismic hazard assessment, yet remains challenging in tectonically complex regions where source-related uncertainties and strong lateral heterogeneity limit conventional validation approaches. Here we present a propagation-centered framework for velocity-model evaluation based on reverse-time source-point gathers constructed from ambient-noise–derived surface waves.

Empirical Green’s functions are retrieved from ambient-noise cross correlations and reverse-time propagated under candidate velocity models to virtual source locations. If a velocity model adequately captures the kinematic characteristics of wave propagation, back-propagated wavefields from different azimuths and offsets refocus coherently near the zero-time reference. Systematic time shifts in the reverse-time source-point gathers indicate kinematic inconsistencies and reveal velocity biases. We quantify this behavior using the arrival-time deviation, Δt, and analyze its dependence on period, offset, and azimuth.

We apply this framework to evaluate four recently developed three-dimensional S-wave velocity models in the Sichuan–Yunnan region, southwest China. The results reveal clear model-dependent patterns in back-propagated arrivals across multiple period bands. At short periods (5–10 s), the back-propagated arrivals are more scattered in time and exhibit stronger directional variability, indicating that the tested velocity models still have limited accuracy in representing shallow structures and local-scale heterogeneity. In contrast, at longer-period waves (15–45 s), the back-propagated wavefields refocus more coherently at the virtual source, with arrival times clustering closer to zero, suggesting that the models are able to reproduce the large-scale characteristics of wave propagation more consistently. Consistent trends observed across multiple virtual source locations highlight both regional-scale performance differences and azimuth-dependent kinematic biases among the tested models.

The proposed reverse-time source-point gather approach offers a source-robust and physically intuitive perspective for velocity-model evaluation. By emphasizing kinematic self-consistency of wave propagation rather than detailed waveform matching, this framework complements existing evaluation methods and provides a flexible tool for diagnosing the strengths and limitations of three-dimensional velocity models in structurally complex regions.

How to cite: Li, T., Li, X., Wang, X., Zhang, W., Liu, Y., and Yao, H.: A reverse-time source-point gather framework for evaluating 3-D crustal velocity models using ambient-noise surface waves, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21245, 2026.

EGU26-21968 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.3

Rank-reduction based standard deviation estimation and shuttling for FWI 

Scott Keating, Andrea Zunino, and Andreas Fichtner

Full-waveform inversion (FWI) is capable of providing high-resolution Earth models, but quantifying uncertainty in these models remains a challenging and costly endeavour. The computational limitations of FWI mean that practical uncertainty estimates are necessarily based on highly incomplete information. This makes significant the difference between aggressive approaches, which systematically underestimate uncertainty, and conservative approaches, which systematically overestimate it. Here, we investigate an approach for inexpensive, conservative uncertainty quantification for high-dimensional FWI problems [1].  

 

This uncertainty quantification strategy is based on truncated singular value decomposition of the inverse problem Hessian. It takes as input a set of model and gradient pairs, which can, but do not have to be the inversion update history. This machinery can be used for both standard deviation estimation and hypothesis testing, using a targeted nullspace shuttling approach. In addition to its flexibility,  comparatively low cost and large-problem scaling, a key advantage of this approach is its conservativism; it provides a guarantee that the estimated uncertainty is greater than that which would be achieved with a full-rank Hessian estimate.

 

[1] Keating, S., Zunino, A., & Fichtner A, 2026. A comparison of rank-reduction strategies for uncertainty estimation in full-waveform inversion. Accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International

How to cite: Keating, S., Zunino, A., and Fichtner, A.: Rank-reduction based standard deviation estimation and shuttling for FWI, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21968, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21968, 2026.

EGU26-540 | Orals | SM2.4

Adapting CyberShake for Europe using OpenQuake-Derived Earthquake Rupture Forecasts 

Andrea Camila Riaño Escandon, Josep de la Puente, Laurentiu Danciu, and Scott Callaghan

Over the past two decades, seismic hazard modeling has advanced along two complementary frontiers: empirical probabilistic frameworks, which systematically capture uncertainty through statistical inference, and physics-based simulation platforms, which directly compute ground motions from the governing equations of wave propagation. This project seeks to unify these two worlds by developing an end-to-end integration between OpenQuake and CyberShake, thereby creating a new generation of seismic hazard models that are globally extensible, probabilistically complete, and physically consistent. CyberShake has been under active development for more than a decade, demonstrating its robustness and scientific maturity through extensive implementations in California. It performs a physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), replacing traditional empirical Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) with full 3D numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation. Built upon the UCERF2/3 Earthquake Rupture Forecasts, CyberShake computes hazard curves directly from synthetic seismograms generated via Strain Green’s Tensors and thousands of stochastic rupture variations. This approach enables non-ergodic, site-specific hazard estimation and has set a global benchmark for high-fidelity hazard computation. However, its application has remained geographically limited: both the ERF and 3D velocity models were designed specifically for California, requiring extensive datasets that are rarely available elsewhere. Conversely, OpenQuake, developed by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, provides a fully open-source, Python-based framework for probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis. It serves as the computational backbone of large-scale hazard models such as the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020 (ESHM20), which integrates decades of regional expertise into a unified and statistical representation. OpenQuake provides a complete probabilistic framework to build Earthquake Rupture Forecasts (ERFs) that combine declustered catalogs, background seismicity, and multi-branch logic trees, ensuring a balanced and uncertainty-aware representation of regional tectonics. Furthermore, its ecosystem extends seamlessly to vulnerability and exposure modules, enabling the translation of hazard into actionable risk assessments and resilience planning.

This project will establish a direct pipeline from OpenQuake’s event-based results to the generation of an ERF compatible with CyberShake’s simulation framework, ensuring moment–rate consistency. By doing so, it will enable CyberShake simulations to be performed for regions beyond California, extending its use to Europe based on the knowledge contained in the ESHM20. The first pilot region is Istanbul, Turkey, a densely populated metropolis located near the western termination of the North Anatolian Fault. Our initial results show that the workflow is already functioning at the prototype level: we have developed a unified 3D velocity model for the Istanbul region by combining available tomographic models with local datasets; generated preliminary event-based rupture catalogs from ESHM20 using OpenQuake; and demonstrated early convergence behavior in hazard curves, indicating that the rupture sampling strategy is statistically robust. These initial results demonstrate the feasibility of the integration approach and indicate that the essential elements needed for a CyberShake-ready ERF are already in place.

How to cite: Riaño Escandon, A. C., de la Puente, J., Danciu, L., and Callaghan, S.: Adapting CyberShake for Europe using OpenQuake-Derived Earthquake Rupture Forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-540, 2026.

EGU26-1665 | ECS | Orals | SM2.4

Integrated Stress Evolution and Multi-Segment Rupture Dynamics of the Main Marmara Fault After the 2025 Mw6.2 Marmara Sea Earthquake 

Yasemin Korkusuz Öztürk, Ali Özgün Konca, and Nurcan Meral Özel

The northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), the Main Marmara Fault (MMF), constitutes one of the most critical seismic hazards in the Eastern Mediterranean. This system currently hosts an ~120-km seismic gap bounded by the Mw 7.4 1912 Ganos and Mw 7.4 1999 İzmit earthquakes, and most recently accommodated the Mw 6.2 April 23, 2025 Marmara Sea Earthquake. The 2025 event ruptured the Kumburgaz segment, a key structural transition zone between the partially creeping Central Marmara Basin to the west and the fully coupled Çınarcık Basin to the east. Given the ~260-year seismic quiescence along this region of the MMF, understanding how the 2025 earthquake, together with the 1912 and 1999 events, has modified the regional stress field is essential for evaluating the likelihood and characteristics of a future large Marmara Sea earthquake.

In this study, we construct three complementary quasi-static block models to quantify stress evolution along the MMF: (1) a cumulative coseismic stress transfer model incorporating the 1912, 1999, and 2025 earthquakes; (2) a coseismic model isolating the effects of the 2025 rupture; and (3) an interseismic loading model constrained by GNSS observations. The two models enable a comparative assessment of static Coulomb stress changes on adjacent fault segments, illuminating how recent and historical ruptures collectively influence present-day stress accumulation patterns.

Building upon the quasi-static results, we generate new 3D dynamic rupture simulations using a 1D crustal velocity structure for the nonplanar multi-segment MMF, explicitly incorporating interseismic stress loading, coseismic stress perturbations, and the partially creeping behavior of the MMF. We further benchmark these new simulations against our earlier dynamic models that assumed a homogeneous velocity structure to evaluate the sensitivity of rupture dynamics to crustal heterogeneity and initial stress conditions.

Our integrated modeling framework reveals that, during a potential future large Marmara earthquake, rupture is likely to propagate westward through multiple MMF segments, while arresting near the eastern entrance of the İzmit Fault. New segmented rupture patterns are also observed as a result of using a 1D crustal structure instead of a homogeneous medium, together with the inclusion of coseismic stress transfer. The findings offer important insights into post-2025, post-1999, and post-1912 stress redistribution, fault-segment interactions, and rupture cascade potential across the Marmara region. Collectively, this work advances the scientific basis for earthquake hazard assessment in one of the world’s most densely populated and tectonically active metropolitan corridors.

How to cite: Korkusuz Öztürk, Y., Konca, A. Ö., and Meral Özel, N.: Integrated Stress Evolution and Multi-Segment Rupture Dynamics of the Main Marmara Fault After the 2025 Mw6.2 Marmara Sea Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1665, 2026.

Reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS) is a critical concern in geo-engineering, arising from the coupled interactions among in-situ stress, fluid flow, and fault mechanics, associated with reservoir impoundment. Improving our understanding of earthquake dynamics is therefore essential for elucidating the dynamics of rupture processes at RIS. In particular, understanding fault reactivation and the transition from quasi-static aseismic slip to dynamic rupture is crucial, as the nucleation phase may provide valuable information for detecting pre-seismic signals and estimating earthquake magnitudes.

We develop a novel two-dimensional, fully coupled poro-visco-elasto-dynamic finite-element model (implemented in COMSOL) to simulate RIS under reservoir impoundment in extensional tectonic settings. The porous medium is represented as a Kelvin–Voigt poro-visco-elastic solid to capture elastic deformation and intrinsic damping, while inertial effects are included to resolve rupture dynamics and seismic wave propagation. The fault is modeled as  non-penetrating surfaces enforced using an augmented Lagrangian contact formulation and governed by rate-and-state friction, where fault deformations are tolerated by using a virtual thin layer capability.

Model results show that when frictional and hydromechanical conditions permit fault reactivation, slip may become unstable and transition into a coseismic event, with rupture propagating along the fault in asymmetric two–crack-tip–like slip pattern emanating from the hypocenter. Rupture propagation speed is higher in the stiffer rock than in the softer one. Preferential flow induced by the reservoir impoundment forces the rupture nucleation earlier. Porosity and permeability of the fault damage zone decrease with depth (higher than that of the ambient rock at the upper part of the fault), providing the conduit for fluid flow over the fault and promoting longer rupture lengths at RIS.

These findings highlight the critical role of mechanical and hydraulic properties in controlling nucleation and rupture processes in RIS, with important implications for the design and management of reservoir impoundment.

How to cite: Zhou, X. and Katsman, R.: Reservoir Induced Seismicity Modelled Using a Fully Coupled Poro-Visco-Elasto-Dynamic Model with Frictional Contact and Rate-and-State Dependent Friction: Dynamics of Spontaneous Coseismic Rupture, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2242, 2026.

EGU26-2376 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.4

Linking off-fault strain to rate-and-state friction nucleation: Implications for monitoring precursory velocity changes 

Lin Zhang, Jean-Paul Ampuero, and Pierre Romanet

Precursory signals preceding large earthquakes are commonly attributed to the acceleration of localized slip during rupture nucleation, yet their spatial expression in the surrounding medium remains poorly constrained. Here, we model the evolution of off-fault strain during earthquake nucleation governed by rate-and-state friction. Our results show that strain accumulates gradually during the early nucleation phase and then accelerates sharply, exceeding a threshold of ε ~ 10-7—comparable to natural strain levels and detectable by modern strainmeters and geodetic instruments—tens to hundreds of days before instability, depending on the uncertainty in the characteristic slip distance Dc and effective normal stress σeff. Approximately 0.7 times the nucleation duration prior to failure, the strained region (ε > 10-7) extends to distances exceeding one nucleation length away from the fault and spans most of its entire length. We further show that σeff  controls both the magnitude and spatial distribution of strain, whereas Dc primarily influences the spatial extent of the strained region. Assuming a representative value for the sensitivity of seismic velocity changes to strain (η ≈ 104), the predicted strain amplitudes correspond to ~0.1%-100% changes in seismic velocity, well above the detection limits of ambient-noise monitoring. A comparison between strain footprints and seismic wavelengths further suggests that analysis of short-period noise (T = 0.1 - 1 s) would be most favorable for identifying these precursory signals. Together, these findings directly link nucleation theory to observable field-scale precursors and provide a physics-based framework for precursor identification in natural fault systems.

How to cite: Zhang, L., Ampuero, J.-P., and Romanet, P.: Linking off-fault strain to rate-and-state friction nucleation: Implications for monitoring precursory velocity changes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2376, 2026.

EGU26-2980 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.4

Toward physics-based PSHA study in northern Italy: 3D velocity model validation and broadband seismic signals synthesis. 

Chiara Saturnino, Luca De Siena, and Irene Molinari

Physics-based approaches are increasingly recognized as essential for improving seismic hazard assessment, however, no fully physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) exists for the Italian territory. This gap is particularly relevant in the Po Plain area in northern italy, where deep sedimentary deposits strongly amplify seismic waves and prolong shaking, even for moderate-magnitude events. In this context, broadband ground-motion simulations represent a key requirement for capturing both long-period basin effects and high-frequency scattering. In this study, we generate synthetic seismograms spanning the engineering-relevant 0.1–10 Hz bandwidth using a hybrid approach that combines deterministic low-frequency (<1 Hz) simulations with stochastically generated high-frequency (1–10 Hz) ground motion. The low-frequency component (<1 Hz) is computed using the SPECFEM3D Cartesian code, which implements the spectral element method to solve the full seismic wave equation in complex 3D media. A central goal of this work is the validation of the 3D MAMBo velocity model (Molinari et al., 2015). We test the model using several earthquakes and compare its performance against alternative candidate 1D and 3D velocity models, highlighting the critical role of a detailed 3D representation of basin geometry and major velocity discontinuities. The synthetic seismograms are quantitatively evaluated using time–frequency misfit and goodness-of-fit metrics. Our results show that the 3D characterization significantly improves the agreement with observed waveform shapes and durations, and they provide a foundation for future refinement of the regional velocity model. The resulting broadband synthetics are suitable for seismic-hazard analysis and engineering applications in the densely populated and economically important Po Plain. Overall, this study outlines a pathway toward fully physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in northern Italy, grounded on validated 3D structure and physics-based broadband ground-motion simulations.

How to cite: Saturnino, C., De Siena, L., and Molinari, I.: Toward physics-based PSHA study in northern Italy: 3D velocity model validation and broadband seismic signals synthesis., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2980, 2026.

EGU26-3216 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.4

Impact of Fault Geometry in dynamic modeling simulations: The case of the 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikoura. 

Emmanuel Caballero-Leyva, Duo Li, Ryosuke Ando, and Rafael Benites

The 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikoura earthquake presents one of most challenging natural events to model dynamically, with up to 21 faults involved in the full rupture, according to geological measurements of surface rupture ( e.g. Litchfield et al. 2018). However, most studies using static displacement observations do not resolve individual fault activation and their temporal connectivity at some parts of the fault range (e.g. Hamling et al. 2017), as suggested by the near-source strong motion data (REF). A more recent complete aftershock catalog provides improved seismological constraints on the rupture kinematics, offering new insights into the fault geometry and faulting mechanisms (Chamberlain et al. 2021). These advances motivate a re‑examination of the mysterious multi-fault rupture with complete seismological observation and physics-based dynamic rupture modeling for to better understand the governing mechanisms of multi-fault ruptures.

Compared to kinematic source inversions, dynamic modeling is a powerful numerical tool to compute realistic cases of earthquake occurrence due to complex ruptures. Yet, for earthquakes involving multiple interacting faults, even state-of-the-art dynamic models can lead to fundamentally different physical interpretations. On one hand, the corresponding dynamic modeling setup heavily depends on prior knowledge of the full system geometry, as well as on the stress-state and velocity model of the medium. On the other hand, due to the nonlinear nature of the problem, several models can produce similar results. Results show that for relatively simple ruptures, involving one or two fault planes, the solution is stable. However, when the rupture involves several faults, even minor changes to the dynamic setup result in instability and non-uniqueness of the solution.

To gain insight into how such extreme fault complexity controls rupture evolution, we perform the dynamic modeling of the 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikoura earthquake using the open-access SeisSol package. We use the New Zealand 3D velocity model and compare two different geometries. The first geometry uses the NZ Community Fault Model, while the second is based on a previously published rupture model (Ando & Kaneko 2018). For the first geometry, we analyze whether the rupture actually used secondary faults to continue its path, or if subsequent rupture was triggered by the generated wavefield. For the second geometry, we investigate the impact of rupture bifurcation onto two faults and assess whether this process generates identifiable seismic phases in the wavefield.

We analyze both dynamic scenarios using near-field and regional strong-motion records, which are expected to capture hidden features of the rupture. We further compare the simulated rupture evolution with previously published high-resolution earthquake catalogs to identify rupture patterns and evaluate potential changes in the stress field before and after the event. Our results highlight both the strengths and inherent ambiguities of dynamic rupture modeling for complex multi-fault earthquakes and provide new constraints on the physical processes governing the Kaikoura rupture.

How to cite: Caballero-Leyva, E., Li, D., Ando, R., and Benites, R.: Impact of Fault Geometry in dynamic modeling simulations: The case of the 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikoura., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3216, 2026.

EGU26-3583 | ECS | Orals | SM2.4

Characterizing Earthquake Rupture Directivity Using Apparent Source Spectra: A Case Study from Central Italy 

Edlira Xhafaj, Lorenzo Vitrano, Francesca Pacor, Sara Sgobba, and Giovanni Lanzano

This study investigates rupture directivity effects on source spectra of small-magnitude earthquakes in Central Italy, based on a dataset comprising 18,994 waveforms from 656 shallow crustal events recorded between 2008 and 2018. The Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT) is employed to isolate frequency-dependent source characteristics. Apparent Source Spectra (AppSS) exhibit clear azimuthal variations, indicating the presence of directivity effects, particularly in events associated with higher standard deviations. The source spectra are analyzed using multiple empirical models, allowing for the estimation of seismic moment and stress drop for 138 events. Model performance is evaluated through residual analysis across a frequency range of 0.5–25 Hz. Our findings indicate that the ω² source model fitting on the plateau (ωest²) provides a better fit to the observed spectra for the selected events in the dataset. Comparison with previous studies confirms the reliability of the spectral estimates and modeling approach. For the two selected events, spatial maps of ground motion are presented, offering valuable insights into the regional variability of shaking. The study results underscore the importance of incorporating rupture directivity in ground motion models, thereby reinforcing the robustness of empirical predictive approaches and their relevance for improving seismic hazard assessments.

How to cite: Xhafaj, E., Vitrano, L., Pacor, F., Sgobba, S., and Lanzano, G.: Characterizing Earthquake Rupture Directivity Using Apparent Source Spectra: A Case Study from Central Italy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3583, 2026.

EGU26-4273 | Posters on site | SM2.4

UrgentShake for Scenario-Based Ground Motion Simulations: Integrating Multiple Source Realizations with CyberShake 

Elisa Zuccolo, Natalia Zamora, and Chiara Scaini

UrgentShake is an urgent computing system developed by OGS (National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics) for the rapid generation of physics-based ground shaking scenarios. It employs a distributed architecture across High-Performance Computing (HPC) and cloud infrastructures to perform numerical simulations in near real-time, providing reliable estimates of ground motion following significant seismic events in Northeastern Italy, thereby supporting decision-making by emergency management authorities.

Although primarily designed for rapid response to earthquakes, UrgentShake’s flexible architecture also makes it suitable for non-real-time applications, such as Civil Protection exercises and risk analyses. In these contexts, a single realization of a specific seismic source is not sufficient; instead, a suite of plausible scenarios is needed to define median, minimum and maximum estimates of ground shaking and potential impacts.

To address this need, a feasibility study was conducted to demonstrate the potential integration of UrgentShake with CyberShake, a physics-based platform for seismic hazard modeling that simulates many rupture scenarios. CyberShake simulations for a representative earthquake scenario were performed using the Graves and Pitarka stochastic rupture generator and the Anelastic Wave Propagation code on HPC resources at the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre. By generating multiple independent source realizations with varying nucleation points, fault geometries and rupture characteristics, this proof of concept illustrates how source-related uncertainties can be incorporated into UrgentShake to produce robust ground shaking scenarios. These scenarios can support Civil Protection training and preparedness activities while enabling physics-based damage assessments to inform risk analyses.

How to cite: Zuccolo, E., Zamora, N., and Scaini, C.: UrgentShake for Scenario-Based Ground Motion Simulations: Integrating Multiple Source Realizations with CyberShake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4273, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4273, 2026.

Fault geometrical complexity is a first-order controlling factor on the extent of strike-slip fault surface rupture and earthquake magnitude, and step-over represents a key type of such complexity. The Banquan pull-apart basin along the Tanlu fault zone provides a natural example to investigate how tectonically evolved fault geometry influences dynamic rupture propagation across step-overs. We construct a 3-dimensional fault model that incorporates Y-shaped negative flower structure, connecting faults, and a sedimentary layer within the extensional step-over. The shallow fault geometry is constrained by surface geological observations, and the deep fault structure is informed by analogue experiments of pull-apart basin formation. Spontaneous coseismic dynamic rupture simulations are performed to examine the rupture behavior under these fault geometries. Our results show that when stress perturbation associated with stopping phases at the main fault termination is insufficient to trigger rupture on the secondary fault directly, the presence of connecting faults can act as a bridge to facilitate rupture propagation across the step-over. A deeper connecting fault can generate a stress shadow on the secondary fault, inhibiting local rupture propagation and potentially behaving as a barrier on the secondary fault, whereas shallow connecting faults have little influence on the rupture process. These findings provide insights into rupture jumping behavior in step-overs with similar fault structures and extend the existing interpretation of step-over triggering based on stopping phases with planar fault geometries. 

How to cite: Lu, Z. and Hu, F.: Effects of tectonic evolution informed fault geometry on dynamic rupture propagation across step-overs: A case study of the Banquan pull-apart basin, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4321, 2026.

EGU26-4671 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.4

Uncovering the stabilizing and destabilizing roles of aseismic creep in earthquake rupture 

Yanchuan Li and Xinjian Shan

Aseismic creep is widely recognized to influence earthquake rupture, but whether its role remains stationary in different earthquakes is poorly understood. In this study, we integrate GNSS/InSAR observations along the Xianshuihe fault in eastern Tibet and identify six aseismic creeping sections, which have been partially or fully involved in historical earthquakes. The creep exhibits spatiotemporal transient behavior. Using interseismic fault locking as a constraint, we performed 3D dynamic rupture simulations of the Xianshuihe fault. We demonstrate that aseismic creep exerts a dual role in earthquake rupture. On the stabilizing side, creeping sections terminate rupture propagation, with earthquakes that nucleate and are absorbed within the creeping zones further reinforcing their function as stable rupture barriers. Conversely, under favorable local stress conditions and modulated by transient aseismic slip migration and hypocenter location, creeping sections could promote rupture propagation, rendering their impact on rupture non-stationary in different earthquakes. These findings provide a plausible explanation for the pronounced variability of rupture segmentation and cascading on the geometrically simple Xianshuihe fault, and highlight the importance of incorporating both stabilizing and destabilizing effects of aseismic creep into seismic hazard assessments.

How to cite: Li, Y. and Shan, X.: Uncovering the stabilizing and destabilizing roles of aseismic creep in earthquake rupture, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4671, 2026.

EGU26-5554 | Orals | SM2.4

Accuracy of the Finite-difference Modeling of Seismic Motion – Wavenumber Limitation of Medium 

Jozef Kristek, Jaroslav Valovcan, Peter Moczo, Miriam Kristekova, Rune Mittet, and Martin Galis

Material interfaces play crucial role in forming seismic wavefield in local surface sedimentary structures and resulting free-surface motion. Multiple reverberations between the free surface and sediment-bedrock interface can lead to resonant amplifications and generation of local surface waves, and consequently to strong site effects of earthquakes.

It is therefore important to properly implement material interfaces in numerical modelling of seismic wave propagation and seismic motion. This has been well known for some time, and several approaches have been developed in variety of numerical methods.

The finite-difference (FD) method is still dominant method in numerical investigations of site effects of earthquakes. It applies relatively simple discretization in space to the material parameters and discretization in space and time to wavefield variables. Therefore, consequences of discretization must be analyzed in time, space, frequency and wavenumber domains.

Interestingly enough, the least attention has been paid to the wavenumber domain. Mittet (2017) and Moczo et al. (2022) recently demonstrated that, due to spatial discretization, a model of the medium must be wavenumber-limited by a wavenumber k smaller than the Nyquist wavenumber. Mittet (2021) and Valovcan et al. (2024) proved that the wavefield (numerically simulated or exact) in a medium limited by wavenumber k can only be accurate up to half this wavenumber. This has significant consequence for practical FD modelling of motion in realistic models of local structures.

We numerically demonstrate a perfect and unprecedented sub-cell resolution (capability to sense the position of interface within a grid cell) of FD modelling based on the wavenumber-limited medium using a finite spatial low-pass filter. The finding that it is possible to use a finite-length filter for wavenumber limitation of the medium is of key importance for the next development of the concept in terms of computational efficiency in modelling site effects.

How to cite: Kristek, J., Valovcan, J., Moczo, P., Kristekova, M., Mittet, R., and Galis, M.: Accuracy of the Finite-difference Modeling of Seismic Motion – Wavenumber Limitation of Medium, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5554, 2026.

The Gulf of Aqaba (GoA) fault system constitutes the southernmost segment of the Dead Sea Transform Fault (DSTF) and forms a ~180 km long left-lateral strike-slip plate boundary separating the Arabian Plate from the Sinai microplate.  As the most seismically active region of the Red Sea, the GoA has hosted multiple large historical earthquakes and poses significant seismic hazards to surrounding coastal communities. Increasing tourism activity and the infrastructural giga-project NEOM of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the vicinity of the GoA, highlight the need for advanced seismic hazard assessment (SHA). However, the offshore nature of the fault system and limited availability of observational data complicate the efforts. 

To assess earthquake potential and seismic hazard in the region, we construct multiple realizations of three-dimensional, multi-segment fault models representing alternative configurations of the GoA fault system. We constrain variations in 3D fault geometry with  recent high-resolution multibeam imaging and local seismicity, while explicitly accounting for uncertainties in seismogenic depth, initial stress conditions, and fault roughness. Incorporating off-fault plasticity along with realistic topography and bathymetry, we perform dynamic rupture simulations with varying hypocenter locations to investigate mechanically plausible rupture scenarios and the resulting ground motions in the GoA. Our physics-based simulations show that all considered model uncertainties, especially the fault geometry, prestress condition and hypocenter location, can strongly influence rupture dynamics, cascading, and segment interactions, determining how and if rupture propagates across the multi-segment GoA fault system. Beyond characterizing earthquake potential on individual fault segments, the simulations indicate that events as large as Mw 7.6 are possible if rupture extends along the full north–south length of the fault system. The resulting synthetic ground motions show attenuation properties consistent with empirical ground motion models, but display highly heterogeneous spatial patterns, including strong rupture-directivity effects during subshear propagation and pronounced off-fault Mach-front amplification for supershear rupture that significantly enhance ground shaking in coastal communities along this narrow gulf. These results underscore the substantial seismic hazard posed by large, dynamically complex earthquakes in the Gulf of Aqaba region and highlight the value of physics-based simulations in enhancing and complementing seismic hazard assessments.

How to cite: Li, B. and Mai, P. M.: Physics-based assessment of earthquake potential and ground motions in the Gulf of Aqaba, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5925, 2026.

EGU26-7716 | Posters on site | SM2.4

Rupture Speed Signatures of Near-fault Particle Motion in Large Strike-slip Earthquakes 

Suli Yao, Hongfeng Yang, Harsha Bhat, and Hideo Aochi

Earthquake rupture propagation speed is an essential source factor that largely controls hazard and risk. However, measuring rupture speeds of natural earthquakes is often challenging and ambiguous. Near-fault seismic waveforms (recorded within several km) are believed to have high capability for resolving rupture process. In this study, we probe the feasibility of using near-fault data signatures to directly infer rupture speeds in continental strike-slip earthquakes.

 

To thoroughly understand near-fault features, we synthesize the near-fault seismic waves for kinematic source models on a strike-slip fault under different rupture speeds in a 3D medium. We identify the dependence of velocity waveform and particle motion on rupture speed in both amplitude and shape. In addition, we compare our results with the analytical solution with steady-state constant rupture speed. The discrepancies between the kinematic model and the analytical model indicate the contribution of radiation from different configurations. With inspecting the near-fault dataset of eight M>7 strike-slip earthquakes, we find that instead of dealing with the velocity waveforms with multiple high-frequency spikes, the features of the particle motion shape are easier to identify. Then we apply the particle-motion-based criterion to identify signatures associated with supershear, subshear, and other complexities such as multiple rupture fronts and initial-stage rupture phase. Our study highlights the further application of near-fault seismic data in studying earthquake sources.

How to cite: Yao, S., Yang, H., Bhat, H., and Aochi, H.: Rupture Speed Signatures of Near-fault Particle Motion in Large Strike-slip Earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7716, 2026.

The Ryukyu subduction zone offshore eastern Taiwan possesses significant seismogenic potential, exemplified by the 1920 M8 earthquake. However, even to date, the scarcity of near-field data leaves the ground motion characteristics of such mega-earthquakes poorly constrained, posing a threat to seismic hazard assessments. To estimate potential ground motions in inland eastern Taiwan from future mega-earthquakes, we simulated an M8 scenario earthquake using characterized source models (CSMs) based on the "Recipe" procedure (Irikura and Miyake, 2011). We employed a 3-D finite-difference method to conduct 1,728 full-waveform simulations, incorporating kinematic fault-rupture parameters, including rupture directivity, rupture speed, source time function, and asperity distribution, along with two recent tomographic velocity models and topography. Synthetic waveforms generated at 4,950 virtual stations (about 1.5 km spacing) were analyzed using RotD50 spectral accelerations (SA) at 1, 3, and 5 s. Detailed analysis highlights two notable characteristics of the dataset: first, rupture speed and directivity primarily govern the spatial variability and intensity of ground motions; second, tests demonstrate that utilizing a Gaussian source time function with periods of 2, 5, and 9 s yields optimal performance for assessing SA at 1.0, 3.0, and 5.0 s, respectively. We further calculated non-ergodic terms based on the CH20 GMM (Chao et al., 2020). The patterns clearly delineate northeastern Taiwan's geological domains: high values in the Ilan area (SA 1.0 s) and Longitudinal Valley (SA 1.0, 3.0, 5.0 s), and low values in the Coastal Range. These patterns mirror the crustal velocity structure, highlighting the dominance of path effects over relatively weak source effects. Consequently, our extensive simulation datasets provide a foundation for refining current GMMs and facilitate the transition toward non-ergodic seismic hazard assessments, thereby improving the accuracy of ground motion predictions for future mega-earthquake scenarios in the region.

How to cite: Hsieh, M.-C., Sung, C.-H., and Yang, Y.-C.: 3-D Seismic Wave Simulations for Non-Ergodic Ground Motion Modeling: Source and Path Variability in an M8 Ryukyu Subduction Scenario, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8902, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8902, 2026.

EGU26-9624 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.4

Influence of Fault Roughness on Earthquake Rupture Parameters Correlations 

Pramod Kumar Vyas and Martin Galis

Geological observations show that fault surfaces are complex at both large scales (fault segmentation) and small scales (surface roughness). These geometric complexities strongly influence earthquake rupture behaviour, including slip, rupture speed, rise time, and peak slip velocity. Understanding how these rupture parameters are related to each other is essential for improving understanding of earthquake rupture physics and for developing synthetic rupture models that reproduce realistic dynamic behaviour within kinematic frameworks. Although earlier studies have examined these correlations, the effect of small-scale fault roughness is still not well understood. Therefore, this study focuses on understanding how fault roughness affects correlations among rupture parameters.

To address this problem, we use the dynamic rupture dataset of Mai et al. (2018), which includes twenty-one rupture models with different roughness realizations, roughness amplitudes, and hypocentre locations. Because dynamic slip-velocity functions have complex shapes, we simplify them by fitting the regularized Yoffe function proposed by Tinti et al. (2005). From these fits, we extract key kinematic parameters. We then examine correlations among eight parameters: slip, peak slip velocity, acceleration time, rise time, rupture speed, strike, dip, and rake.

Our results show that slip is positively correlated with rise time, but it does not show clear correlations with other rupture or geometry parameters. Peak slip velocity is negatively correlated with both acceleration time and rise time, and positively correlated with rupture speed. Importantly, as fault roughness increases, the correlation between peak slip velocity and rupture speed becomes weaker. Acceleration time is also negatively correlated with rupture speed, and this correlation also decreases with increasing fault roughness. In contrast, the geometry parameters strike and dip do not show significant correlations with any rupture parameters. Overall, fault roughness mainly affects the relationships between only two pairs of rupture parameters, whereas the correlations among other parameter pairs are not strongly affected.

Our findings provide important constraints for developing synthetic rupture models that can generate realistic high-frequency seismic radiation consistently with radiation of dynamic ruptures propagating on rough faults.

How to cite: Vyas, P. K. and Galis, M.: Influence of Fault Roughness on Earthquake Rupture Parameters Correlations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9624, 2026.

EGU26-9901 | ECS | Orals | SM2.4

Accelerating and scaling up SEAS simulations using GPUs in Julia 

Gabriele Benedetti and Elías Rafn Heimisson

Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip (SEAS) simulations focus on km scale models and consider all phases of faulting from aseismic slip to earthquake nucleation, propagation and termination. Many codes exist that use different approaches to tackle SEAS simulations; however, solutions designed to leverage the potential of GPUs to parallelize and speed up the simulation are limited (although recent examples are emerging such as PyQuake3D). In this work, we propose a GPU parallelized SEAS quasi-dynamic solver written in Julia adopting the Spectral Boundary Integral Method (SBIM). The SBIM approach is optimal for GPUs as it is more memory efficient in respect to other mesh-based solvers, thus enabling to efficiently run high resolution simulations with around 10 million nodes on the fault plane. We rearrange the rate-and-state equations to solve for the slip rate and adopt a slightly modified Newton-Raphson algorithm for root finding. We introduce elastic bulk by using an analytical stress-slip relationship in the Fourier/wavenumber domain. Most of the operations that are carried out in the solver are element wise and thus can be run in parallel on GPUs, significantly cutting down on computation time as the domain resolution increases. While FFT is inherently not fully parallelizable, GPU kernels are available to efficiently perform Fourier transforms on GPUs. Moreover, by using the FFT algorithm, the numerical complexity for calculating the stress is reduced from O(N²) to O(NlogN). To verify the correctness of our solver, we use the BP4-QD benchmark and show comparable results with other outputs hosted by SCEC. We then measure the runtime of the solver on CPU and 2 NVIDIA GPUs, the RTX4060 8GB and the A100 40GB, and show a x5 to x16 speedup for simulations depending on the GPU. Finally, we run the BP4-QD problem on the A100 GPU, decreasing the indicated node spacing and Dc values by an order of magnitude. This simulation yielded 36 events of Mw > 7 and 181 events of Mw between 5 and 6, showing emergence of complexity. Moreover, we observe that the earthquake’s nucleation points are distributed along the edges of the rate-weakening patch. The smaller events are mostly concentrated on the four corners and the two sides parallel to the slipping direction while the bigger events are distributed more uniformly all around the border.

How to cite: Benedetti, G. and Heimisson, E. R.: Accelerating and scaling up SEAS simulations using GPUs in Julia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9901, 2026.

EGU26-10178 | Posters on site | SM2.4

Postseismic and shallow slow slip events on the Izmit segment of the North Anatolian Fault controlled by depth-dependent frictional variations 

Cécile Doubre, Neyrinck Estelle, Rousset Baptiste, Wei Matt, and Kaneko Yoshihiro

Earthquake cycle modeling has enabled to reproduce the full spectrum of slip rates observed along fault segments, and refine our understanding of seismic cycle dynamics. However, key parameters controlling the occurrence of shallow slow slip events (SSE) such as those observed along strike-slip fault segments remain unclear, due to rare worldwide observations and the lack of long-lasting observations covering all phases of the seismic cycle. Here, we apply rate and state friction quasi-dynamic 1D models to explain the ensemble of observations along the Izmit segment of the North Anatolian Fault in Türkiye. This fault segment ruptured in 1999 with the magnitude 7.6 Izmit earthquake, and has been since then widely studied, providing constraints on most of the phases of the seismic cycle, from mainshock amplitude and recurrence times to afterslip logarithmic decay, and the occurrence of shallow SSEs. GNSS, InSAR and creepmeters geodetic data associated with seismological and paleoseismological data enable to describe the cumulative displacement during all phases of the seismic cycle. The comparison between model predictions and the observational time scales led to an optimal set of frictional models. First, the mainshocks maximum slip of ~6 m and return times of about ≥200 yrs are explained by an unstable seismogenic layer below 5.5 km depth with a thickness of 9.5 km and with frictional parameters a-b of about -0.004. The decadal afterslip, well constrained by a pair of campaign GNSS stations located on both sides of the fault, is mostly due to a stable layer located between 5.5 and 1.3 km depth, the lower limit being compatible with the aftershocks sequence limit. We compared model slip predictions and GNSS time series by computing Green's functions for a layered elastic half space medium. Model parameters for this intermediate layer explaining the observed relaxation time have frictional parameters a-b and critical distance of about 0.005 and 8 km, respectively. Finally, a shallow layer from the surface to 1.3 km depth with either a gradient of frictional parameters with depth or constant negative frictional parameters is needed to generate shallow SSEs 20 yrs after the main earthquakes. The shallow layer depth extent being compatible with the Izmit Quaternary sedimentary basin may suggest a key role of the sediments frictional properties to allow a velocity weakening behavior. Models with a gradient of apparent frictional properties throughout the basin may suggest the importance of pore-pressure variations as a function of the fault gouge depth.

How to cite: Doubre, C., Estelle, N., Baptiste, R., Matt, W., and Yoshihiro, K.: Postseismic and shallow slow slip events on the Izmit segment of the North Anatolian Fault controlled by depth-dependent frictional variations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10178, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10178, 2026.

This paper presents the quantification of site-city-interaction (SCI) effects on the dynamic response of buildings and free-field motion using domain reduction method. The simulated physics based broadband near-fault ground motion due to Mw6.5 strike-slip earthquake is being utilized to excite the site-city models using domain reduction method. The two step, domain reduction method, is utilized to reduce the exorbitant computational memory and speed as well as measures have been taken to preserve the ground motion characteristics. A building is incorporated in numerical grid as a building block model (BBM) and its dimension, different modes of vibrations and damping are as per the real building. The dynamic response of site-city models is simulated using both the pulse and non-pulse type motions. The analysis of simulated results reveals that the SCI study using realistic earthquake ground motion has caused a reduction of response of building and free field motion in a wide frequency bandwidth as well as its fundamental frequency. An increase of these reductions has been obtained with decrease of building-damping, fundamental frequency and impedance contrast between the BBM and the underlying sediment. A considerable difference in SCI effects is obtained when site-city model is excited with pulse and non-pulse type near-fault ground motions. Detailed study is carried out in order to find out the terms and conditions under which SCI is beneficial to all the buildings of the city.

How to cite: malik, S. and Narayan, J. P.: Quantification of site city interaction effect on Response of building in near fault region using Domain Reduction Method, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10205, 2026.

EGU26-10413 | Posters on site | SM2.4

Dynamic Rupture and Ground Motion Simulations of Potential Earthquake on the Tianzhu Seismic Gap 

Bihe Ren, Wenqiang Wang, and Hezhong Qiu

The Tianzhu seismic gap is an important segment of the Haiyuan fault system. In recent decades, earthquakes have occurred on most fault segments within this region, whereas the Jinqianghe–Maomaoshan fault has not experienced a major earthquake for an extended period. Given that this fault segment is widely regarded as having elevated potential seismic hazard, we conduct three-dimensional dynamic rupture and strong ground motion simulations using the curved grid finite difference method.To effectively constrain model input parameters, interseismic locking coefficients and slip deficit distributions inverted from InSAR and GPS observations are used to impose physically based constraints on the heterogeneous initial stress conditions along the fault. Simulation results indicate that the spatial distribution of locked regions plays a critical role in controlling rupture extent. Under locking-constrained conditions, scenario earthquakes with moment magnitudes of Mw 7.3–7.4 and maximum slip of approximately 5.5 m are generated. Further analyses show that larger accumulated slip deficits tend to promote higher earthquake magnitudes, whereas the surface seismic intensity does not exhibit a monotonic response to slip deficit.These results suggest that the Jinqianghe–Maomaoshan fault segment may be associated with elevated potential seismic hazard.

How to cite: Ren, B., Wang, W., and Qiu, H.: Dynamic Rupture and Ground Motion Simulations of Potential Earthquake on the Tianzhu Seismic Gap, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10413, 2026.

EGU26-11804 | Posters on site | SM2.4

A High-Efficiency and Low-Storage Algorithm for Seismic Simulation Using Half Precision and Scalable Vector Extension on ARM Platforms 

Wenqiang Wang, Bihe Ren, Juepeng Zheng, and Zhenguo Zhang

Seismic simulations are essential for ground motion characterization and seismic hazard mitigation. However, achieving accurate seismic modelling requires highly refined computational grids, which impose severe memory and computational challenges. Traditional seismic solvers based on single-precision floating-point 32-bit (FP32) arithmetic, suffer from excessive memory consumption, low-memory access efficiency and limited computational efficiency. In contrast, half-precision floating-point 16-bit (FP16) halves memory usage and effectively doubles memory access efficiency, making it attractive for large-scale seismic simulations. However, direct application of FP16 to classical elastic wave equations is challenging due to overflow and underflow caused by the wide dynamic range of physical variables. In this work, we reformulate the elastic wave equations by introducing three dimensionless scaling constants, Cv, Cs, and Cp, and derive an FP16-based elastic wave equation. Furthermore, we provided a practical strategy for determining these constants based on the source time function, ensuring that velocity and stress variables remain within the representable range of FP16. To maintain FP32-level accuracy, a mixed-precision strategy using “FP16 storage and FP32 arithmetic” is adopted. From a computational perspective, we further exploit the Scalable Vector Extension (SVE) on ARM architectures to accelerate stencil-based computations. However, effectively combining FP16 with SVE introduces additional challenges, including stencil restructuring for vectorization and data layout mismatches arising from “FP16 storage and FP32 arithmetic”. To overcome these challenges, this study develops three complementary seismic solvers on the ARM architecture: an FP16-based solver, an SVE-accelerated solver, and an FP16–SVE hybrid solver that integrates memory efficiency with vectorized computation. All three solvers are implemented, systematically validated, and benchmarked using both synthetic test cases and real earthquake simulations. Numerical results demonstrate near-identical agreement with a reference FP32 solver across diverse seismic scenarios. In particular, the FP16–SVE hybrid solver reduces memory consumption by approximately 50% and achieves up to a threefold speedup, delivering more than a 2.3× acceleration in real-world earthquake simulations. These results highlight the strong potential of the proposed FP16–SVE approach for enabling large-scale, high-efficiency, and near-real-time seismic simulations and earthquake hazard assessment on ARM-based platforms.

How to cite: Wang, W., Ren, B., Zheng, J., and Zhang, Z.: A High-Efficiency and Low-Storage Algorithm for Seismic Simulation Using Half Precision and Scalable Vector Extension on ARM Platforms, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11804, 2026.

EGU26-12099 | Posters on site | SM2.4

 The future Community-Driven SCEC SEAS Code Comparisons for [1] Three-Dimensional fluid injection and [2] a Two-Dimensional dipping fault with variable normal traction. 

Pierre Romanet, Eric Dunham, Brittany Erickson, Taeho Kim, Valère Lambert, and Prithvi Thakur

The Statewide California Earthquake Center (SCEC) sequence of earthquake and aseismic slip (SEAS) group has regularly developed and published benchmarks along the years to follow recent development in the modeling of sequences of aseismic slip and earthquakes, as well as progress in numerical methods. These benchmarks, as well as the results from the different groups are publicly available at: https://strike.scec.org/cvws/seas/. It provides both reference solutions for code verification and a framework for systematic comparison of different modeling approaches. Every group is welcomed to join this Community driven comparison.

Recent efforts have focused on adding physics to better reproduce earthquake cycle by considering 2-dimensional fault (Jiang et al., 2022), improve our understanding of fluid injection processes (Lambert et al., 2025), and the effect of free surface and dipping fault (Erickson et al., 2023).

To follow up these developments, the SCEC SEAS group is designing two new benchmarks, that will be released to the community soon:

[1] A generalization of our benchmark about fluid injection (BP6) from a 2-dimensional domain to 3-dimensional domain. In this benchmark pore fluid diffuses along a 2-dimensional fault, modifying the effective normal traction  through one-way hydromechanical coupling. The fluid is injected for 10 hours on a rate strengthening faut and then shut off. The benchmark is designed to admit an analytical formulation for pore fluid diffusion while avoiding numerical singularities that may occurred with point source injection. For this reason, fluid is injected along a Gaussian profile.

[2] An updated version of our previous dipping fault benchmark (BP3), in a two-dimensional medium with a free surface. Previous version assumed that the normal traction along the fault was constant.  This is obviously a strong assumption, because the normal traction should increase with depth. However, this has proven to be difficult to simulate numerically as the system is going stiffer with lower normal traction. This benchmark therefore aims at providing a more realistic simulation of a dipping fault with a free surface by introducing depth dependent normal traction while also testing the ability of different numerical code to circumvent the problem of stiffness. This benchmark will be a joint benchmark with CRESCENT (Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center).

This contribution will present the design of these forthcoming benchmarks and will provide an opportunity for the community to discuss about future benchmarks and directions for SEAS code comparison efforts.

How to cite: Romanet, P., Dunham, E., Erickson, B., Kim, T., Lambert, V., and Thakur, P.:  The future Community-Driven SCEC SEAS Code Comparisons for [1] Three-Dimensional fluid injection and [2] a Two-Dimensional dipping fault with variable normal traction., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12099, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12099, 2026.

EGU26-12115 | Orals | SM2.4

Dynamic rupture of a gouge layer in a meter-sized labquake: a coupled numerical model 

Guilhem Mollon and Nathalie Casas

Seismic waves originate from dynamic rupture propagation in faults. Seen from afar, faults are analogous to shear cracks, and their rupture can be analysed using the tools of fracture mechanics. However, a closer look reveals that faults can also be considered locally as a tribosystem, i.e. as a layered structure which accommodates deformation thought localized shearing in a thin granular layer of fault gouge. These two scales are equally important but are difficult to handle simultaneously in simulations.

In this communication, we propose a novel numerical model where this challenge is addressed. The gouge layer is represented using the Discrete Element Method, where each micrometric gouge grain (about 1 million of them in the present case) is explicitly represented and submitted to Newtonian dynamics, based on the forces it receives from its contacting neighbours. This layer is 2 mm-thick, and is confined between two continuum regions simulated using an explicit Meshfree Method. They receive the elastic properties of country rock, and are prestressed in the normal and tangential directions in order to bring the gouge layer just below its peak strength. The resulting fault system has a total length of 64 cm.

A labquake is then triggered from the central point of the fault, and the weakening rheology of the gouge layer allows it to propagate along two rupture fronts, which exhibit specific properties inherited from the frictional response and structure of the gouge. Inclined Riedel bands spontaneously develop at quasi-periodic intervals in the granular layer, and both rupture fronts propagate by leaps when successively activating slip in these structures. They both transition to a supershear regime after a certain sliding distance.

This model allows for the first time to observe the behaviour and response of the gouge layer as it endures the propagation of a rupture front. Localization patterns and granular complexity render the rupture irregular and heterogeneous, but a moving average in time in the frame of the crack tip allows to recover stress concentrations and slip velocity patterns which are consistent with the Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics predictions. Il allows to relate gouge frictional response and rupture dynamics without the need to prescribe an arbitrary friction law or to rely on separation of scales.

How to cite: Mollon, G. and Casas, N.: Dynamic rupture of a gouge layer in a meter-sized labquake: a coupled numerical model, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12115, 2026.

EGU26-12196 | ECS | Orals | SM2.4

Rupture Complexities of Slow Slip Events Controlled by Fault Friction Mechanics 

Yiran Shi and Huihui Weng

Slow slip events (SSEs) are usually observed in elongated transitional zones between the seismogenic and creeping regions of the subduction zones, with the potentials to trigger large subduction earthquakes. Geodetic observations of SSEs in the Cascadia subduction zone (Michel et al., 2019) reveal contrasting complexities of rupture segmentations in the northern and southern segments separated by 44°N, with the northern segment preferring longer ruptures and the southern part preferring shorter ruptures. However, it remains unclear what mechanisms control the observed contrasting rupture segmentations of SSEs. Additionally, understanding the mechanisms behind the rupture complexities of SSEs can provide physical insights into the processes governing characteristic or complex earthquakes. Here, we conduct numerical simulations of SSE cycles along an elongated fault with a finite width W , which is governed by the rate-and-state friction with velocity-strengthening. We find that the rupture complexities of SSEs on a fault – classified as characteristic ruptures, complex ruptures, or creeping – depend on two non-dimensional ratios  Lnuc/W and Lc/W, where Lnuc is the critical nucleation length and Lc is the critical cohesive zone length. When Lnuc/W  is larger than 0.5, the fault keeps creeping and cannot produce any SSEs, which is consistent with previous theoretical predictions of 0.5 to 1. In addition, we find that runaway characteristic ruptures are enabled if the fault satisfies the energy balance condition between the energy release rate G0 and the fracture energy Gc,, G0 = Gc, derived from the three-dimensional theory of dynamic fracture mechanics that accounts for finite rupture width (Weng and Ampuero, 2022). If G0 < Gc, ruptures prefer to arrest in a short distance and form complex events. This work proposes that a wide spectrum from creeping to characteristic ruptures is controlled by two length ratios in the framework of fracture mechanics, providing new physical insights into the mechanisms of SSEs.

References:

Michel, S., Gualandi, A., & Avouac, J.-P. (2019). Similar scaling laws for earthquakes and Cascadia slow-slip events. Nature, 574(7779), 522–526. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1673-6

Weng, H., & Ampuero, J.-P. (2022). Integrated rupture mechanics for slow slip events and earthquakes. Nature Communications, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34927-w

 

 

How to cite: Shi, Y. and Weng, H.: Rupture Complexities of Slow Slip Events Controlled by Fault Friction Mechanics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12196, 2026.

EGU26-12340 | Posters on site | SM2.4

Cluster Analysis of Fourier Amplitude Spectra Residuals for Ground Motion Characterization in Southern Italy. 

Paola Morasca, Maria Clara D'Amico, and Daniele Spallarossa

The main objective of this study is to identify clusters of seismic records with similar Fourier Amplitude Spectrum (FAS) shapes that can be associated with different tectonic domains, path attenuation properties, and site effects in Southern Italy. The analyzed dataset consists of FAS of S-wave windows, computed in the 0.5–25 Hz frequency range from accelerometric and velocimetric records available from EIDA and ITACA for 1349 events and 502 stations, with focal depths up to about 40 km.

We analyzed residuals between empirical FAS-based ground-motion models (GMMs), using ITA18 as reference, and observed spectral amplitudes through a mixed-effects regression framework. This allows us to decompose the total residuals into systematic contributions due to source (between-events term, δBe), path (systematic differences in attenuation, δWes), and site (site-to-site term, δS2S) effects, which are then grouped into clusters.

For the source terms δBe, four clusters are identified. Two of them are particularly interesting: one shows systematic amplification with increasing frequency, while the other shows systematic deamplification at high frequencies. The spatial distribution of the corresponding events highlights the Gargano and southeastern Sicily as regions characterized by amplified spectral amplitudes, whereas northeastern Sicily and the Aeolian area exhibit deamplified amplitudes. Additional insights are obtained by examining the dependence of these clusters on magnitude and focal depth; this analysis reveals that one of the source-related clusters is composed exclusively of shallow events (depth ≤ 10 km), which display distinctive spectral behaviors in specific crustal and volcanic domains.

For the path residuals δWes, four clusters are also recognized, revealing systematic differences in wave propagation across distinct crustal structures. The systematic site terms δS2S are grouped into three clusters: one identifies stations largely unaffected by significant soil amplification, while the other two show, respectively, systematic amplification and deamplification across the whole frequency band, with the clearest separation at intermediate frequencies (about 3–8 Hz).

These results provide a regional framework for ground-motion characterization in Southern Italy, supporting the identification of reference stations and of areas with distinct source and attenuation properties. This work is preparatory to future large-scale and local-scale Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT) studies aimed at the characterization of ground motion for shallow-crustal events and at the definition of key input parameters for earthquake simulations. In particular, the source-related clusters associated with volcanic areas reveal spectral features that deviate from classical ω² source models, pointing to processes likely controlled by complex fluid–rock interactions.

How to cite: Morasca, P., D'Amico, M. C., and Spallarossa, D.: Cluster Analysis of Fourier Amplitude Spectra Residuals for Ground Motion Characterization in Southern Italy., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12340, 2026.

EGU26-13053 | ECS | Orals | SM2.4

Bridging the Gap Between Millions of Years and Milliseconds: Modeling Earthquake Sequences, Slow Slip, and Splay Fault Rupture in Subduction Zones 

Alexander Koelzer, Mhina de Vos, Taras Gerya, and Ylona van Dinther

Earthquakes and tsunamis occur on a timescale of seconds and are experienced by humans as sudden devastating disasters. However, the tectonic systems that determine where they occur are shaped over millions of years. Deformation in subduction zones is characterized by visco-elasto-plastic interactions between the accretionary prism featuring splay faults, subducting and overriding plate, asthenosphere, and free surface. To understand the present-day seismicity, earthquake cycle, and splay faulting in particular, these deformation processes need to be considered across all time scales. However, numerical models have not been able to resolve the dynamics across both tectonic and earthquake time scales.

We present a novel numerical modeling technique that simulates fully dynamic earthquake sequences and slow slip events in a subduction zone described by a visco-elasto-plastic rheology. Faults form and evolve spontaneously according to heterogeneous, temperature-dependent material parameters and the local stress field during both the initial 4 million years of subduction and the subsequent seismic phase. We employ an invariant formulation of rate- and state-dependent friction and adaptive time stepping to fully resolve all phases of the seismic cycle.

We generate events covering the slip spectrum from aseismic creep to earthquakes with slip rates in the order of m/s and tens of meters of slip. We find that events are largely characteristic despite the potential for deviating rupture paths in the subduction channel. We find that splay faults need to be sufficiently weak to be activated during a megathrust earthquake, since they cannot accumulate stress over time because velocity-strengthening afterslip relaxes their stresses. Dynamic triggering of a splay fault can lead to an early arrest of the megathrust rupture. Such short-term effects alter the long-term deformation compared to a purely geodynamic model by increasing the importance of one splay fault over others. We also observe that trapped seismic waves significantly change the slip distribution in a similar manner as has been found using a dynamic rupture model.

We conclude that our model successfully combines aspects of established geodynamic models and dynamic rupture models, providing a missing link between the long-term and the short-term. When applying this modeling approach to a complex continental setting, the interaction of multiple faults results in further complexities such as clustering. This highlights the potential and versatility of the method for a wide range of tectonic settings.

How to cite: Koelzer, A., de Vos, M., Gerya, T., and van Dinther, Y.: Bridging the Gap Between Millions of Years and Milliseconds: Modeling Earthquake Sequences, Slow Slip, and Splay Fault Rupture in Subduction Zones, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13053, 2026.

EGU26-13780 | ECS | Orals | SM2.4

From uncertain velocity models to ensemble-based ground motion simulations 

Sam A. Scivier, Paula Koelemeijer, Adrian Marin Mag, and Tarje Nissen-Meyer

Physics-based earthquake wave propagation and ground motion simulations rely critically on three-dimensional seismic velocity models as inputs. These models may originate from seismic tomography, empirical regional compilations, geological constraints, or hybrid modelling approaches, and are commonly treated as deterministic representations of the subsurface. However, all such velocity models are affected by substantial epistemic uncertainty arising from limited data coverage, modelling assumptions, and methodological choices, and often disagree in overlapping regions. Neglecting this uncertainty obscures how variability in Earth structure propagates into simulated wavefields and ground motion estimates, limiting the interpretability and robustness of physics-based seismic hazard assessments.

We present a probabilistic framework to account for velocity model variability in physics-based ground motion predictions. Rather than selecting a single preferred velocity model, we represent model uncertainty through the fusion of multiple, spatially overlapping velocity models using scalable Gaussian process (GP) regression. Our approach treats existing velocity models as spatially correlated observations of an underlying velocity field and infers a continuous probability distribution that captures both shared structural features and model disagreement. The GP formulation thus preserves spatial coherence across scales and provides an interpretable description of uncertainty in terms of spatial covariance, characteristic length scales, and amplitude variability. This enables the generation of ensembles of physically plausible velocity model realisations for use in wave propagation solvers, thereby producing ground motion predictions that explicitly reflect velocity model uncertainty.

Using our framework and realistic 3D seismic velocity models in a regional case study, we generate an ensemble of velocity model realisations and propagate them through physics-based earthquake simulations. We show that uncertainty in velocity structure alone can produce substantial variability in simulated wavefields and predicted ground motions, even when all other aspects of the simulation are held fixed. These results highlight the sensitivity of physics-based ground motion estimates to uncertain subsurface structure and motivate the need to explicitly incorporate velocity model uncertainty in physics-based earthquake simulations.

While demonstrated here for seismic velocity models, the framework can readily incorporate additional geophysical parameters relevant to earthquake wave propagation, such as density and attenuation. This provides a practical route for incorporating epistemic Earth model uncertainty into physics-based seismic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Scivier, S. A., Koelemeijer, P., Mag, A. M., and Nissen-Meyer, T.: From uncertain velocity models to ensemble-based ground motion simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13780, 2026.

EGU26-14664 | ECS | Orals | SM2.4

Effects of the lower crust on slab detachment – a case study in the Hindu Kush 

Tatjana Weiler, Andrea Piccolo, Arne Spang, and Marcel Thielmann

Earthquake nests are defined as volumes of intense intermediate-depth seismicity which are isolated from any surrounding seismic activity. The high seismic activity within these earthquake nests occurs continuously and thus sets them apart from other seismic sequences such as earthquake swarms or aftershocks. These intermediate-depth earthquakes cannot be explained by the same causes as shallow earthquakes. Instead, they are often linked to slab detachment (e.g. in the Hindu Kush).

To constrain the conditions at which these large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur, numerical models are required to better understand their tectonic environment. Here, we use two-dimensional thermomechanical models with a nonlinear visco-elasto-plastic rheology were to determine the deformation state and the controlling mechanisms of the detachment process.

In this study, we focus on the question how the viscosity ratio (ηlithlc) between the lithosphere and the lower crust and the depth dlc to which lower crust may have been subducted influence the subduction process. Both is poorly constrained for the Hindu Kush. To this end, we varied the viscosity ratio ηlithlc between 0.01 and 1000 and the subduction depth of the lower crust dlc between 160 km and 240 km. We obtained detachment depths ranging from 110 km to 470 km, which fall within the range of the Hindu Kush earthquake nest, extending up to 280 km. The deformation behaviour from the 264 models can be classified into five different regimes based on stress, strain rate, detachment depth, and coupling between subducting and overriding plate. The five regimes represent the dependency of the detachment depth (ddet) to its viscosity ratio (ηlithlc). Detachment in regime two is enhanced via shear heating and detachment in the other regimes occurs via necking. The relationship between lower crustal depth and detachment depth varies by model category. This variability reflects the complex influence of the “lubrication effect” of a weak lower crust and the limitation of subduction depth governed by its rheological properties.

How to cite: Weiler, T., Piccolo, A., Spang, A., and Thielmann, M.: Effects of the lower crust on slab detachment – a case study in the Hindu Kush, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14664, 2026.

EGU26-14752 | ECS | Orals | SM2.4

Versatile Surrogate Inversion of Deformation Sources 

Kaan Çökerim and Jonathan Bedford

The amount of geodetic surface displacement observations from GNSS and InSAR has been growing in recent years yet exploring the model space of corresponding sub-surface deformation remains a complicated and computationally expensive exercise. This is especially the case when there is more than one source and is further complicated when there is a variety in source types, such as combinations of on-fault slip and off-fault mantle flow.  While analytical solutions exist for a variety of deformation types within elastic half-spaces (such as fault slip, tensile dislocation, volumetric strain, expansion/contraction) the optimization of source parameters beyond single source models is computationally burdensome due to the need to extensively search with forward passes of the numerical solutions.  In most kinematic modelling exercises, the strategy is to assume geometries of sources and solve for magnitude parameters in inversions or to let a Finite Elements simulation evolve from a starting static displacement.  Furthermore, there is no effective way to blindly discover the number of sources along with their respective modes of deformation.

Here we demonstrate a solution to these problems that uses surrogate cuboid anelastic deformation sources and sparsity. Cuboid surrogates, that are trained on analytical solutions of anelastic deformation in a half-space, provide a versatile parametrization capable of approximating a wide range of deformation styles - from volumes to faults - by collapsing the thickness towards a near-planar geometry.  Once trained, the model can be run in inversion mode so that parameters of the source, such as centroid, length, width, depth, and strain tensor can be optimized by means of a back-propagated loss between the measured surface displacement and surrogate model prediction.  Multiple sources can be added trivially, and a sparse solution found with an approximately sparse optimization strategy.

By replacing repeated forward evaluations with a trained surrogate model, the proposed framework enables rapid optimization directly from observed deformation fields without the need for assuming the types of deformations or number of sources. This combination of a flexible cuboid-based source representation and efficient surrogate modelling offers a practical route towards scalable discovery of sub-surface deformation features.

How to cite: Çökerim, K. and Bedford, J.: Versatile Surrogate Inversion of Deformation Sources, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14752, 2026.

EGU26-15115 | ECS | Orals | SM2.4

Mechanics-based simulation of aftershock sequences in complex 3D fault networks 

Wenbo Pan, Zixin Zhang, and Qinghua Lei

Understanding the physical mechanisms governing aftershock patterns and their evolution in fault networks is crucial for interpreting seismic catalogues and improving physics-based seismic hazard assessment. Here, we develop a mechanics-based modeling framework based on the discrete fracture network approach to explicitly simulate mainshock rupture, coseismic stress changes, and aftershock generation in complex 3D fault networks. The fault system that we model comprises a primary strike-slip fault surrounded by a network of thousands of secondary faults with sizes following a power-law distribution. Dynamic rupture nucleates within a localized patch on the primary fault and propagates spontaneously at a sub-Rayleigh speed, producing a Mw 7.6 mainshock. The model captures aftershock triggering driven by radiated seismic waves and/or permanent stress redistribution, and quantifies their combined effect using Coulomb failure stress changes. Fault slip is governed by a linear slip-weakening friction law, where the critical slip distance is varied over orders of magnitude to explore its influence on breakdown-zone size, fracture-energy dissipation, and rupture propensity on secondary faults. The simulations capture key emergent characteristics of aftershock sequences: spatially, aftershocks cluster within positive Coulomb stress lobes and are suppressed within stress shadows, with additional localization near fault intersections; statistically, the cumulative frequency–magnitude distributions follow Gutenberg–Richter scaling over a broad magnitude range. Importantly, the synthetic catalogues consistently exhibit a two-branch frequency–magnitude scaling behavior, in which the lower-magnitude branch is dominated by partial ruptures and premature arrest, whereas the higher-magnitude branch corresponds to self-sustained ruptures whose moment magnitudes scale with fault area and are therefore more strongly constrained by fault network geometry. We further show that the transition between these regimes is governed by fault criticality and fracture energy dissipation, providing an alternative mechanics-based explanation for the commonly observed roll-off in frequency–magnitude distribution. Overall, our framework mechanically connects fault network structure and rupture dynamics to explain aftershock statistics, enabling physics-based interpretation of seismic catalogues and supporting improved seismic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Pan, W., Zhang, Z., and Lei, Q.: Mechanics-based simulation of aftershock sequences in complex 3D fault networks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15115, 2026.

EGU26-15721 | ECS | Orals | SM2.4

Emergence of asperity-like energy concentration in a stochastic Langevin framework 

Tsung-Hsi Wu and Chien-Chih Chen

Modeling earthquake rupture dynamics often requires stochastic approaches to address the impracticality of obtaining analytical solutions for asymmetric many-body systems. Following Langevin's approach, we propose a stochastic dynamic model for the earthquake rupture process, where complexity in degrees of freedom is reduced by introducing a random force to account for uncertainties in fault plane heterogeneity and structural collisions. In this coarse-grained framework, the random term captures unresolved heterogeneity and interactions at a macroscopic system scale; it does not assert that rupture at the scale of specific fault patches is inherently random. Treating the tectonic process as a Coulomb friction process allows this Langevin equation to be viewed as a stochastic variant of Newton’s second law, attributing physical significance to the sample paths.

However, applying a zero-dimensional (0-D) stochastic framework to complex faulting raises a critical conceptual challenge: can a model lacking explicit spatial dimensions reproduce the highly heterogeneous energy distribution observed in nature? Intuition suggests that the exponential slip distribution derived from a 0-D process may not exhibit tail behavior sufficient to satisfy the standard asperity criterion, where a small fraction of the fault area releases most of the seismic energy. To validate the physical basis of the model, we first examine the spectral properties of the synthetic velocity fluctuations. Results demonstrate that the model output is not arbitrary white noise; rather, the velocity spectra exhibit a Lorentzian form characterized by a single corner frequency. This spectral structure indicates that system memory is governed by a characteristic timescale determined by the load ratio, reflecting a competition between frictional dissipation (which erases memory) and external driving (which sustains motion).

Furthermore, we evaluate the steady-state slip distribution derived from the corresponding Fokker–Planck equation against empirical scaling relations for asperities. Adopting the criterion which defines an asperity as regions where slip exceeds 1.5 times the average, and using squared slip as an upper-bound proxy for energy release under elastic loading, we calculate the theoretical energy concentration. The model predicts that the top ∼22% of the statistical "area" contributes ∼81% of the total energy. This theoretical prediction lies within the 20–30% range observed empirically for asperity area fractions. These findings suggest that the concentration of energy in asperities can emerge from stochastic frictional dynamics, arising from the exponential tail of the slip distribution without explicit modeling of spatial heterogeneity.

How to cite: Wu, T.-H. and Chen, C.-C.: Emergence of asperity-like energy concentration in a stochastic Langevin framework, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15721, 2026.

The excitation and propagation of multiple wave types, including seismic waves, ocean acoustic waves, and tsunamis triggered by earthquakes within the oceanic wavefield, constitute a problem of substantial scientific and practical challenge for both fundamental geophysical understanding and hazard assessment. While various numerical approaches have been proposed to model these full-coupled wavefields, the role of realistic seafloor topography in modulating wave propagation remains underexplored.

We present a novel earthquake-tsunami coupled simulation approach based on the spectral-element method (SEM), leveraging its robustness and accuracy in representing arbitrary fluid-solid interface geometries. The approach is quantitatively validated through comparisons of simulated permanent seafloor deformation and sea-surface displacement time series with benchmark finite-difference method (FDM) solutions, yielding an excellent correlation coefficient of 0.998 and negligible errors. Furthermore, we construct two distinct numerical models: one incorporating realistic seafloor topography and another assuming an idealized flat seafloor to investigate the effects of bathymetry on oceanic wavefield. Our analyses reveal that complex bathymetry profoundly alters the propagation of both seismic and tsunami waves, modifying amplitudes, arrival times, and spatial distribution patterns. By systematically separating the contributions of the overlying seawater and the underlying seafloor topography, we clarify their individual influences on the composite oceanic wavefield. We also investigate how variations in earthquake source location affect wave propagation waves, underscoring the necessity of accurate bathymetric representation for offshore events.

This SEM-based earthquake-tsunami coupling framework offers a robust tool for comprehensively understanding the oceanic wavefield under gravity and holds considerable promise for advancing earthquake and tsunami risk evaluation, especially when combined with seismological observational data.

How to cite: Hou, X., Zhang, L., and Xu, Y.: Coupled simulation of earthquake and tsunami by spectral-element method and effects of bathymetry on oceanic wavefield, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15953, 2026.

EGU26-17597 | Posters on site | SM2.4

Propagation Characteristics of Rotational Ground Motions in Layered Earth Media 

Anjali C. Dhabu, Aida Hejazi Nooghabi, and Céline Hadziioannou

Rotational ground motions have recently emerged as an important and independent observable in seismology, driven by advances in rotational seismometers and the growing availability of high-quality rotational datasets. These observations provide new insights towards understanding near-source and near-surface wave propagation beyond traditional translational measurement. To model rotational components, several analytical approaches have been proposed in the recent past. However, these formulations are typically restricted to idealized source representations and simplified Earth models, limiting their applicability to realistic geological settings accounting for three-dimensional complexities.

Finite-element modeling techniques provide a powerful alternative by enabling the simulation of seismic wavefields in complex media by incorporating heterogeneous velocity structures, layered stratigraphy, surface topography, and finite-fault earthquake sources. Despite this capability, commonly used ground motion simulation codes have not yet been adapted to compute rotational ground motions. In this study, we extend the spectral finite-element code SPECFEM3D to internally compute and output rotational ground motions alongside conventional translational components. The numerical implementation is validated against analytical solutions for two benchmark cases: (i) a homogeneous half-space and (ii) a three-layered velocity model, demonstrating excellent agreement in both amplitude and waveform characteristics. Following validation, the modified code is used to simulate rotational ground motions for a range of realistic scenarios, including layered representations of the subsurface and finite-fault source models. These simulations are used to investigate the generation and propagation characteristics of rotational motions and to examine their spatiotemporal relationship with translational ground motions. Differences in amplitude and propagation behavior between rotational and translational components are particularly analyzed in the present work.

Finally, we assess the potential implications of rotational ground motions for earthquake engineering by evaluating their relative amplitudes and propagation patterns under different source and structural conditions. The results provide a framework for identifying the source characteristics and conditions under which rotational components of ground motion may become significant and potentially influence structural response. These findings contribute to an improved understanding of whether, and under what circumstances, rotational ground motions should be considered in seismic analysis and earthquake-resistant design practice.

Keywords: Rotational ground motions, Seismic wave propagation, Numerical modeling, Earthquake engineering

How to cite: Dhabu, A. C., Hejazi Nooghabi, A., and Hadziioannou, C.: Propagation Characteristics of Rotational Ground Motions in Layered Earth Media, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17597, 2026.

EGU26-18857 | ECS | Posters on site | SM2.4

Towards physic-based ground-motion simulations for the Scutari-Pec Fault System, Eastern Adria 

Claudia Abril and Alice Gabriel

The Eastern Adriatic region has been historically affected by strong destructive earthquakes, including the M6.4 1667 Dubrovnik earthquake, the M6.6 1905 Shkodra event, and the M6.4 2019 Durrës earthquake. Some of those destructive events are associated with the Scutari-Pec Fault System (Albania). This tectonic structure extends sub-parallel to the coastline, in the SW-NE direction, through the Dinaride-Hellenide transition. This fault system corresponds to a compressive and transform fault system near the Adriatic Sea that changes the tectonics to an extensional regime towards the East. The distribution of focal mechanisms  of microseismicity recorded in the region (Serpelloni et al, 2007) evidences the complex tectonics (Grund et al., 2023). 

As part of the German SPP project DEFORM, we plan to simulate 3D dynamic earthquake scenarios to study the rupture propagation of large earthquakes across the Scutari-Pec Fault System. We apply the open-source SeisSol code to generate synthetic seismograms up to frequencies of 2 Hz. We will specifically investigate the effect of variability of locking depth as a crucial parameter for determining the earthquake potential of the fault system. Ground motion for dynamic rupture scenarios with characteristics similar to the destructive reported events will be  estimated, in particular for the most populated cities located within 50 km of the central fault system. This presentation is a first step toward these goals and  aims to provide relevant information for such simulations, which may complement seismic hazard assessment in the region.

How to cite: Abril, C. and Gabriel, A.: Towards physic-based ground-motion simulations for the Scutari-Pec Fault System, Eastern Adria, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18857, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18857, 2026.

EGU26-21376 | ECS | Orals | SM2.4

Validation of a 3-D Basin Velocity Model for Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Assessment: The Sulmona Basin, Central Italy 

Jon Bryan May, Vanja Kastelic, Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa, Rita de Nardis, and Emanuele Casarotti

Reliable physics-based seismic hazard assessment (PB-SHA) requires basin velocity models that accurately reproduce key characteristics of observed seismic wave propagation, which is critical for predicting ground-motion scenarios in complex sedimentary basins. We present a validation study of a three-dimensional basin model with depth-dependent P- and S-wave velocity profiles of the Sulmona Basin (central Italy), developed to represent basin-scale structures relevant for physics-based ground-motion simulations.

The model is implemented in the spectral-element code SPECFEM3D and evaluated through direct comparison of observed and synthetic seismograms at the available stations within the basin. Simulations are performed for selected regional earthquakes, with synthetic waveforms filtered to match the target frequency range of the model. Waveform misfit is quantified using the Pyflex framework, allowing an objective assessment of phase arrival times, waveform similarity, and amplitude differences across multiple stations.

The results show that the model reproduces basin-controlled wave-propagation characteristics, including waveform duration and spatial variability of ground-motion amplitudes. Amplitude variability and waveform agreement primarily reflect the depth-dependent velocity structure and 3D basin geometry, while localized misfits reflect unresolved features and the limited number and spatial coverage of recording sites.

Overall, this validation provides a first quantitative assessment of the Sulmona Basin velocity model, forming a foundation for subsequent work towards physics-based seismic hazard assessment and scenario modelling.

How to cite: May, J. B., Kastelic, V., Carafa, M. M. C., de Nardis, R., and Casarotti, E.: Validation of a 3-D Basin Velocity Model for Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Assessment: The Sulmona Basin, Central Italy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21376, 2026.

This study investigates the influence of surface-water-level fluctuations on seismicity in the upper crust, using the historic Dead Sea as a natural laboratory.  We apply a validated 2D poro-elasto-plastic coupling model in COMSOL Multiphysics. The model integrates coupled hydro-mechanical processes, including pore-pressure evolution, plastic strain localization, and permeability changes, to capture the interaction between surface loading and fault stability. Given reported challenges in capturing hydro-mechanical coupling and scaling behaviour in natural systems using the rate-and-state friction (RSF) formulation, this study adopts an alternative modelling framework that does not explicitly incorporate RSF. The study focuses on applying the model to reconstruct earthquake occurrence patterns associated with Dead Sea water-level variations over the past two millennia. Results demonstrate a strong correlation between relatively rapid water-level changes and increased seismic activity, highlighting the critical role of hydrological forcing in earthquake triggering. These findings provide new insights into reservoir-induced seismicity and underscore the importance of incorporating surface water dynamics into seismic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Belferman, M. and Agnon, A.:  Hydro-Mechanical numerical Modeling of Water-Level-Induced Seismicity: Insights from Historic Dead Sea Fluctuations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22999, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22999, 2026.

SM3 – Seismic Instrumentation and Infrastructure

EGU26-7345 * | Posters on site | SM3.1 | Highlight

Probing lithosphere and volcanoes of the French Massif Central using multiscale seismic experiments: the MACIV project 

Coralie Aubert, Guilhem Scheiblin, Sébastien Chevrot, Nicolas Cluzel, Aurélien Mordret, Hélène Pauchet, Anne Paul, Sandrine Roussel, Nikolaï Shapiro, Thierry Souriot, and Matthieu Sylvander and the MACIV-NODES Team

The French Massif Central (FMC) hosts a complex intraplate volcanic system that is probably influenced by deep mantle processes, Variscan inheritance, and Cenozoic rifting. To better understand the crustal and mantle structures of the FMC, a consortium of 4 French laboratories – ISTerre Grenoble, LMV Clermont-Ferrand, GET & IRAP Toulouse – has set up the MACIV project (2023–2027) based on multiscale seismic experiments combining regional-scale and dense local deployments. The regional scale is covered by 2 temporary networks of 100 broadband stations spanning the whole FMC for a duration of 3–4 years. The large-scale XP array of 35 stations complements the permanent networks to achieve homogeneous coverage with ~35 km spacing. It is France’s contribution to the European AdriaArray project. The XF network of 65 stations includes 3 quasi-linear profiles (N–S, E–W, NW–SE) that cross major volcanic areas and Variscan structures with inter-station spacing of 5–20 km.

In September 2025, the broadband arrays were supplemented by a month-long deployment of 2 dense arrays of 624 three-component short-period nodes (5 Hz) across an 80 km x 100 km area. The instruments were deployed in two nested networks : an ultra-dense network (inter-station distance 0.5–1.5 km) on an aperiodic grid covering the recent volcanoes of Chaîne des Puys and Mont-Dore/Sancy massif, and a larger-scale regular grid network (inter-station distance 3.5–7 km).

All MACIV data are or will be distributed by SI-S EPOS-France. Waveforms of the XP array are openly available in real-time since the acquisition started in 2023. XF and nodal data will be publicly available after July 1, 2026.

We will present an overview of the project objectives, the experimental setup designed to optimize performance and cost efficiency, as well as the innovative tools developed for dense network deployment, the data acquisition strategy, and preliminary results.

How to cite: Aubert, C., Scheiblin, G., Chevrot, S., Cluzel, N., Mordret, A., Pauchet, H., Paul, A., Roussel, S., Shapiro, N., Souriot, T., and Sylvander, M. and the MACIV-NODES Team: Probing lithosphere and volcanoes of the French Massif Central using multiscale seismic experiments: the MACIV project, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7345, 2026.

EGU26-7458 | Orals | SM3.1

Comparison of borehole seismic recordings from Distributed Acoustic Sensing and conventional 3C geophones: a VSP experiment at the PITOP testing site (OGS-ECCSEL) 

Andrea Travan, Fabio Meneghini, Cinzia Bellezza, Luigi Lucerna, Paolo Bernardi, Erika Barison, and Andrea Schleifer

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) based on fibre-optic technology is increasingly used in seismic monitoring and subsurface imaging, thanks to its dense spatial sampling, robustness, and operational flexibility. Despite its growing adoption, a detailed comparison with conventional borehole seismic sensors under controlled conditions remains essential to better understand the respective strengths, limitations, and complementarities of the two technologies.

This study presents a controlled Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) experiment carried out in the PITOP2 well at the PITOP geophysical testing site1, operated by OGS and part of the ECCSEL-ERIC facilities2. The experiment was performed within a Transnational Access framework funded by the Geo-INQUIRE project3. The acquisition was specifically designed to compare the seismic response of a non-permanent deployment of a borehole DAS fibre-optic cable with that of a co-located cemented array of three-component borehole geophones.

The seismic source consisted of a Vibroseis Minivib operating in P-mode, with three surface energization points located at offsets of 25, 50, and 75 m from the well. The DAS measurements were acquired using two different interrogators (Silixa iDAS and Carina®), enabling the assessment of DAS response consistency across interrogation systems. The borehole DAS cable and the Carina® interrogator were purchased thanks to PNRR ITINERIS4 funding.

The experiment benefits from the well-characterized subsurface conditions and permanent infrastructure available at PITOP, minimizing geological uncertainties and allowing the focus to be placed on instrumental and acquisition-related effects.

The results of this study enabled to draw technical and scientific evaluations on the experimental design, acquisition parameters and comparison strategy, outlining the analysis of waveform characteristics, frequency content, signal-to-noise ratio, and depth-dependent response.

All datasets of this experiment are openly available in SEG-Y format through the PITOP data portal1, in compliance with FAIR data principles, supporting transparency, reproducibility, and reuse by the scientific and industrial communities

The experiment builds upon previous geophysical investigations conducted at PITOP, as summarized in the recent publication “Geophysical exploration case histories at the PITOP geophysical test site – A key facility in the ECCSEL-ERIC consortium”5, further demonstrating the role of PITOP as a reference facility for testing emerging seismic technologies.

Acknowledgements:

Geo-INQUIRE is funded by the European Commission under project number 101058518 within the HORIZON-INFRA-2021-SERV-01 call.

ECCSEL ERIC was established by the European Commission implementing decision of 9 June 2017 (EU) 2017/996.

References:

  • OGS PITOP website: pitop.ogs.it - Transnational Access, SeisDAS Project 2025, EXP1, DOI: 10.13120/0DTM-JX93)
  • ECCSEL ERIC PITOP page: https://eccsel.eu/catalogue/facility/?id=126
  • Geo-INQUIRE website: https://www.geo-inquire.eu/
  • EU - Next Generation EU Mission 4, Component 2 - CUP B53C22002150006 - Project IR0000032 – ITINERIS - Italian Integrated Environmental Research Infrastructures System
  • Geophysical exploration case histories at the PITOP geophysical test site – A key facility in the ECCSEL-ERIC consortium: an overview. Bellezza et al., Bulletin of Geophysics and Oceanography, 2025

How to cite: Travan, A., Meneghini, F., Bellezza, C., Lucerna, L., Bernardi, P., Barison, E., and Schleifer, A.: Comparison of borehole seismic recordings from Distributed Acoustic Sensing and conventional 3C geophones: a VSP experiment at the PITOP testing site (OGS-ECCSEL), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7458, 2026.

EGU26-10595 | ECS | Orals | SM3.1

High-Resolution Glacier Bed Imaging with Passive Seismology Using a Novel Dense Seismic Array at Isunnguata Sermia, West Greenland 

Nicolas Paris, Florent Gimbert, Philippe Roux, Stephen J. Livingstone, Samuel H. Doyle, Alexandre Michel, Andrew J. Sole, Albanne Lecointre, Laura Pinzon-Rincon, Gregor Hillers, Roméo Courbis, and Guilhem Barruol and the SLIDE-REASSESS team

Accelerating mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet is strongly modulated by meltwater-driven changes of bed conditions in ice dynamics, but these processes remain poorly constrained due to limited high-resolution observations of glacier hydrological systems. Constraints on basal properties can be obtained from borehole measurements and active reflection seismic surveys; however, these methods are inherently limited by their localized spatial coverage and are time intensive. As a result, they are poorly suited to monitoring the subglacial hydrological system, which evolves over seasonal timescales and across spatial scales larger than can be practically sampled. Thus, dense seismic node arrays offer a powerful alternative, enabling passive, high-resolution imaging and continuous monitoring of englacial and subglacial processes over broad areas and extended time periods.

Here, we first present a dense seismic array experiment covering approximately 2.5 km² we conducted in the ablation zone of Isunnguata Sermia, West Greenland. The experiment comprised 82–117 autonomous seismic nodes deployed during one-month long monitoring periods in spring 2023 and in summer and fall 2024, complemented by multi-week surface Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) measurements conducted in 2024. We assess data quality using power spectral densities and ambient noise cross-correlations to detect sensor tilt and GPS timing desynchronization, which are critical issues for data quality in remote and highly dynamical glacial environments such as the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Then, we demonstrate we can use natural icequakes to perform seismic reflection analysis for bed mapping and interface property evaluation. We locate numerous natural seismic events with meter-scale resolution using Matched Field Processing (MFP) beamforming applied to array data in the 4–6 Hz frequency band. These events reveal a large population of near-surface sources associated with crevassing that generate both surface and body waves. We extract body waves and enable event stacking following a two-step synchronization procedure first synchronizing signals in the 4–6 Hz band dominated by surface waves, and subsequently refining timing in the 40–80 Hz band where P waves dominate. By sorting and stacking waveforms from these synchronized natural sources into common midpoint gathers, we identify high signal-to-noise ratio reflected P waves from the ice–bedrock interface at offsets of up to 1 km, significantly greater than those typically achieved in traditional active reflection seismic surveys on glaciers. This extended offset range makes the passive approach better suited for estimating basal conditions using classical amplitude-versus-offset (AVO) analyses due to the stronger dependence of reflectivity to bed properties at large incidence angles.

Finally, following a workflow analogous to active reflection seismology, we derive a two-dimensional map of ice thickness beneath the array with a vertical resolution of approximately 15 m, comparable to that of conventional active surveys. This ice-thickness model will serve as a critical constraint for future high-resolution surface-wave tomography, enabling improved imaging of glacier structure and basal conditions at depth.

How to cite: Paris, N., Gimbert, F., Roux, P., Livingstone, S. J., Doyle, S. H., Michel, A., Sole, A. J., Lecointre, A., Pinzon-Rincon, L., Hillers, G., Courbis, R., and Barruol, G. and the SLIDE-REASSESS team: High-Resolution Glacier Bed Imaging with Passive Seismology Using a Novel Dense Seismic Array at Isunnguata Sermia, West Greenland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10595, 2026.

EGU26-11433 | Orals | SM3.1

Artius: A revolutionary broadband node to enable passive seismology 

Jamie Calver, James Lindsey, Antoaneta Kerkenyakova, Neil Watkiss, Krystian Kitka, Philip Hill, and Federica Restelli

The Artius broadband node represents a transformative innovation in seismic instrumentation, designed to bridge the gap between traditional broadband seismometers and popular nodal systems. While broadband seismometers offer unparalleled sensitivity and frequency range, their cost and complexity often limit large-scale and dense deployments. Conversely, geophones provide cost-effective solutions for high-frequency applications but lack sensitivity to low-frequency seismic signals, which are critical for many research and monitoring purposes. Artius provides a cost-effective compromise, delivering the increased sensitivity and a true broadband frequency range at an economic price point.

Designed by Güralp Systems, Artius integrates a compact, highly sensitive broadband seismometer with an environmentally sealed anodised aluminium enclosure, ensuring optimal performance and robustness across diverse geophysical applications. Boasting a response of 30 seconds to 200 Hz, Artius greatly outperforms geophone-based systems while still being perfectly suited to rapid temporary deployments where it can be either pushed or staked into the ground and connected to an external power supply. Artius pushes the limits of versatility, facilitating real-time data monitoring, as well as passive data collection. Artius has an onboard SEEDlink server, compatible with all standard seismological monitoring techniques, truly setting it apart from anything on the current market.

Artius is designed to be docked into an eight-node capacity docking station for data validation and mass data download. The docking station also serves as a ‘huddle’ system for configuration and testing prior to deployment, ensuring each node is performing optimally. The Artius nodes are intended to be deployed in large arrays, perfect for passive seismology, ambient noise studies, and earthquake investigations.

How to cite: Calver, J., Lindsey, J., Kerkenyakova, A., Watkiss, N., Kitka, K., Hill, P., and Restelli, F.: Artius: A revolutionary broadband node to enable passive seismology, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11433, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11433, 2026.

EGU26-12341 | Orals | SM3.1

The FaultScan Long-Term Dense Nodal Array to Study the San Jacinto Fault (Southern California) 

Florent Brenguier, Quentin Higueret, Aurélien Mordret, Yixiao Sheng, Frank Vernon, Dan Hollis, Coralie Aubert, Laura Pinzon-ricon, Margot Vignon-livache, François Lavoué, Clark Capes, Marcela Pineda, Carl Hobkirk, Yusuke Kakiuchi, and Yehuda Ben-zion

Large earthquakes involve processes that occur primarily at seismogenic depths of 5-10 km or more and that are thus difficult to observe in detail with traditional seismic networks. The FaultScan project establishes the first long-term, dense nodal array experiment by acquiring continuous data at 300 stations along the San Jacinto Fault (SJF, South California) at the Piñon Flat Observatory for 2.5 years (April 2022-Nov. 2024).

We report on the experiment logistics, data quality and describe the characteristics of the High-Frequency (HF, >1 Hz) back-ground noise with a focus on incoherent wind generated noise, train traffic tremors and far distant coherent urban noise. We illustrate how these HF coherent noise sources recorded mostly as body-waves can be used to track velocity changes across the SJF by applying seismic interferometry between the array and nearby permanent seismic stations.

We further describe how much slant-stacking increases the level of signal to noise ratio for the detection of small earthquakes along the San Jacinto Fault and show how newly detected events improve our description of foreshock/aftershock patterns. Our search for tectonic tremors along the San Jacinto Fault turns up empty but we observe tremor-like signals, mostly T-phases coming exclusively from the Tonga subduction and one intriguing T-phase like sequence originating from the October 2023, offshore Japan volcanic crisis.

How to cite: Brenguier, F., Higueret, Q., Mordret, A., Sheng, Y., Vernon, F., Hollis, D., Aubert, C., Pinzon-ricon, L., Vignon-livache, M., Lavoué, F., Capes, C., Pineda, M., Hobkirk, C., Kakiuchi, Y., and Ben-zion, Y.: The FaultScan Long-Term Dense Nodal Array to Study the San Jacinto Fault (Southern California), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12341, 2026.

EGU26-12427 | Posters on site | SM3.1

Two years of DAS acquisitions at GEUS 

Aurélien Mordret, Emil Fønss Jensen, Tine Larsen, Peter Voss, Trine Dahl-Jensen, Nicolai Rinds, and Lukas Sólheim

Distributed Acoustic Sensing is a transformative technology rapidly advancing in seismology. It enables recording high-resolution seismic data in remote areas and is especially beneficial for seafloor sensing, where standard seismic instruments are complex to operate in real time.

Over the past two years, the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) has conducted continuous and campaign-based Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) acquisitions on terrestrial and submarine fiber-optic cables, exploring the potential of DAS as a complement to the national seismic monitoring infrastructure. Using two ASN C-band interrogators deployed in both permanent and mobile configurations, GEUS has collected tens of TB of DAS data, with applications ranging from earthquake monitoring and onshore active seismic experiments to the detection of anthropogenic and marine activities.

This exploration constitutes a steep learning curve for GEUS in field logistics (how to access dark fibers, how to trench our own fibers, ...), as well as in data acquisition, processing, and archiving. Here, we present lessons learned along the way from fieldwork operations and observations of regional and teleseismic earthquakes, quarry blasts, submarine explosions, controlled naval experiments, active seismic tests, and so on. 

Regional earthquakes recorded on submarine cables demonstrate DAS's sensitivity to S-waves even when P-wave signal-to-noise ratios are low. In contrast, teleseismic events (e.g., the M6.5 Jan Mayen earthquake) reveal complex wavefields that are strongly modulated by bathymetry and sedimentary structures. Comparative analyses across multiple cables highlight significant variations in signal quality and frequency content linked to cable type, installation conditions, and seafloor environment. Automatic phase picking using PhaseNet shows promising results, particularly when combining multiple pre-trained models, but also exposes key limitations related to strain-rate measurements, coupling variability, and absolute timing errors caused by the lack of GPS synchronization. Anthropogenic signals, including quarry blasts, anchor drops, vessel traffic, and rare submarine passages offshore, and active and passive seismic acquisition onshore, illustrate both the detection capabilities and the sensitivity to acquisition parameters.

Overall, this two-year dataset demonstrates that DAS can significantly enhance seismic and environmental monitoring, while also identifying critical technical challenges, data volume management, timing accuracy, and site-dependent coupling that must be addressed before DAS can be fully integrated into our operational seismological workflows.

How to cite: Mordret, A., Fønss Jensen, E., Larsen, T., Voss, P., Dahl-Jensen, T., Rinds, N., and Sólheim, L.: Two years of DAS acquisitions at GEUS, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12427, 2026.

EGU26-12768 | Posters on site | SM3.1

Studying the Norwegian Caledonides with ambient noise tomography: fieldwork lessons and preliminary results 

Sofie Gradmann, Aurelien Mordret, Kerstin Saalmann, Berrit Bredemeier, Belinda Flem, Ada Nesgaard, Anna Fauskanger, Marin Yanev, Alexander Moe, and Jonas Kvithyll Eriksen

The Norwegian Caledonides are well mapped at the surface, but their depth extent and subsurface geometry are poorly known. Renewed interest in mineral occurrences within the Caledonian nappes comes with the need to better understand the three-dimensional geometry of mineral bearing units and their tectonic history. A recurring discussion entails whether the nappe stack in central Norway forms a synclinal or anticlinal geometry.

To address these questions, we conducted an ambient noise tomography (ANT) survey aimed at imaging the 3D subsurface structure of the Caledonian nappes in central Norway. ANT provides a comparatively inexpensive and flexible method to investigate crustal structure, allowing us to distinguish high-velocity mineral bearing units from surrounding lower-velocity metasedimentary layers as well as the topography of the underlying crystalline basement. 

The survey was carried out in October 2025 over a three-week period and involved the deployment of 300 vertical component Sercel DFU seismic accelerometer nodes. A 3D-array of ca. 15x20 km, with about 0,6-1 km inter-station spacing was supplemented with a NW-SE trending profile of 30 nodes. The fieldwork in the rugged subarctic terrain was carried out by 3-4 teams of 2 people for the installation and retrieval of the array, for 5-6 days for each operation. About a third of the array was deployed by car along gravel roads, the rest was deployed either by e-bikes along large hiking and tractor trails or on foot for small hiking trails and off-trail sites. The planning and identification of the site access modes was paramount for the efficiency of the deployment. We used the Google Earth phone app as field deployment tool to automatically build the metadata of the array based on geo-localized pictures of the nodes and their serial numbers in the field, aided by an Optical Character Recognition algorithm. 

While the 2D profile cannot resolve lateral structures, its full extension and orientation toward the north-west and thereby toward the main ambient seismic noise sources of the North Atlantic should allow us to resolve the velocity contrast between basement and nappes and the nature of their geometry. 

We present the first results from both the 3D array and the 2D profile, providing new constraints on the depth extent and internal structure of the Caledonian nappes and contributing to the ongoing discussion of their subsurface geometry. 

 

How to cite: Gradmann, S., Mordret, A., Saalmann, K., Bredemeier, B., Flem, B., Nesgaard, A., Fauskanger, A., Yanev, M., Moe, A., and Kvithyll Eriksen, J.: Studying the Norwegian Caledonides with ambient noise tomography: fieldwork lessons and preliminary results, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12768, 2026.

EGU26-12779 | Orals | SM3.1

Modern Data Containers for Scalable Archiving and Access of Distributed Acoustic Sensing Data 

Javier Quinteros, Veronica Rodriguez Tribaldo, Christopher Wollin, and Angelo Strollo

In recent years, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) has emerged as a powerful technology in seismology, enabling the acquisition of high-resolution seismic data using optical fibers as sensors. As the number of DAS experiments continues to grow and DAS interrogators become able to record along ever longer fiber-optic cables, the volume of generated data is rapidly increasing, creating significant challenges for long-term archiving and efficient data access. These challenges include not only the storage of very large datasets—often on the order of hundreds of terabytes—but also the ability to fast random access and process subsets of the data.

Currently, the DAS ecosystem is dominated by proprietary data formats defined by individual vendors. While HDF5 is increasingly adopted as a more open alternative, it presents strong limitations regarding scalability in multi-threaded and multi-process environments. In contrast, modern data container formats such as Zarr and TileDB offer native support for parallel I/O and flexible storage backends, ranging from local file systems to on-premise and cloud-based object storage.

In this contribution, we present a comparative evaluation of these modern data formats for DAS applications, focusing on performance, scalability, and usability. We discuss the latest results obtained from the activities of the Geo-INQUIRE* project and assess the feasibility and potential benefits of their adoption for the long-term management and analysis of DAS datasets.

* Geo-INQUIRE is funded by the European Union (GA 101058518)

How to cite: Quinteros, J., Rodriguez Tribaldo, V., Wollin, C., and Strollo, A.: Modern Data Containers for Scalable Archiving and Access of Distributed Acoustic Sensing Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12779, 2026.

EGU26-18050 | Posters on site | SM3.1

Geophysical Instrument Pool Potsdam (GIPP): Enabling large-scale seismic projects for 30 years – experiences and challenges 

Britta Wawerzinek, Christian Haberland, Oliver Ritter, Benjamin Männel, and Charlotte M. Krawczyk

In addition to permanent geophysical observation networks, temporary field measurements are an important component of solid Earth research. In seismology in particular, there has been a steady increase in the number of measuring devices used within one deployment. This is mainly due to the fact that dense networks (as opposed to individual stations with large distances between them) allow wave fields to be recorded in their entirety enabling new processing methods and higher-resolution subsurface imaging.

Since the maintenance of such large numbers of devices required for dense networks is not a side issue, instrument pools are necessary to supply devices for the academic community. One of the largest instrument pools in Europe is the Geophysical Instrument Pool Potsdam (GIPP), which is operated by the GFZ (gipp.gfz.de). The GIPP provides geophysical and geodetic measurement technology (e.g., recorders and sensors) for temporary active seismic, passive seismological, electromagnetic, and GNSS experiments. The equipment is supplied for usage at universities and research institutes worldwide and free of charge for non-commercial experiments. We team up with our partners in Europe through the ORFEUS Mobile Pools Service Management Committee. Together we are working on improving the cooperation between the major European instrument pools and offering services that facilitate access to instruments, also within the EPOS-ON project.

Over the past 30 years, we have supported more than 500 geophysical field experiments. The data of these experiments is archived at GFZ and is made available to the public, e.g., via the GEOFON repository. The majority of the seismological experiments consists of fewer than 50 stations, but the number of large networks (with up to 500 devices) is increasing. These large networks are realized either in the form of rolling arrays or as temporary installations (LARGE-N), sometimes in collaboration with other providers.

In this presentation, we give an overview of the latest deployments, our data management approach, the challenges that we are facing due to the high demand of LARGE-N experiments, and technological advances in our equipment, particularly in robust node-type field recorders. Thereby, we want to discuss the challenges and potentials of such pools, making them best setup for future research.

How to cite: Wawerzinek, B., Haberland, C., Ritter, O., Männel, B., and Krawczyk, C. M.: Geophysical Instrument Pool Potsdam (GIPP): Enabling large-scale seismic projects for 30 years – experiences and challenges, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18050, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18050, 2026.

EGU26-19172 | ECS | Orals | SM3.1

Localization and Tracking of Incoherent Ship Signals Using Distributed Acoustic Sensing 

Hasse Bülow Pedersen, Henning Heiselberg, Kian Bostani Nezhad, Peder Heiselberg, and Kristian Aalling Sørensen

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) has emerged as a promising technology for large-scale, passive monitoring of acoustic sources in the marine environment. In this work, we investigate the feasibility of using DAS to track and localize surface vessels based on their continuously emitted signals. Ship-generated acoustic signals span a wide frequency range and are often characterized by periodic or quasi-periodic narrowband tonal components. Depending on the coupling conditions of the fiber cable, these signals may exhibit limited spatial coherence across the DAS array thereby reducing the reliability of conventional localization techniques, such as time-difference-of-arrival (TDOA) approaches. To address these challenges, we apply a combination of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) enhancement techniques and coherent signal processing methods to optimize signals. We further implement different localization techniques to assess their limitations and strengths.

To quantitatively assess the performance of the proposed methods, DAS-based localization results are fused and compared with Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. This enables evaluation of localization accuracy, tracking consistency, and uncertainty as a function of vessel range, signal strength, and environmental conditions. By quantifying these limitations and associated uncertainties, this study provides practical insight into the operational capabilities and constraints of DAS for maritime surveillance and monitoring applications.

How to cite: Bülow Pedersen, H., Heiselberg, H., Bostani Nezhad, K., Heiselberg, P., and Aalling Sørensen, K.: Localization and Tracking of Incoherent Ship Signals Using Distributed Acoustic Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19172, 2026.

EGU26-21518 | Orals | SM3.1

Utilizing DAS data in Earth Observation and Marine Traffic Monitoring 

Ahmet Anil Dindar, Süleyman Tunç, Aitaro Kato, Nurcan Meral Özel, Tuğçe Ergün, Ji Zhang, and Yoshiyuki Kaneda

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is a novel earth observation. Existing telecommunication cables, named dark fiber, are usually utilized as part of DAS network. Due to its inherent feature, high-frequency ambient motion is recorded along the length of the fiber optic cable for long distances. Since the dark fiber cables were placed without given care certain issues namely  ground coupling, the data acquired are excessively noisy compared to the conventional sensors particularly on land. However, the cables lay on the ocean bottom prone to less urban noise source. On the other hand, tha traces from the the marine traffic and water ocean motions are apparen in the DAS time series. This study exhibits the potential of DAS data in monitoring the marine traffic near the shoreline in addition to earth observations. A fiber optic cable with NEC interrogator has been studying since May 2024. A long term data in marine traffic with regular and irregular events were significantly emerged from the huge data with proper detection techniques. 

How to cite: Dindar, A. A., Tunç, S., Kato, A., Özel, N. M., Ergün, T., Zhang, J., and Kaneda, Y.: Utilizing DAS data in Earth Observation and Marine Traffic Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21518, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21518, 2026.

EGU26-22593 | Orals | SM3.1

Orientation to True North for Seismic Stations: Review of Field Practices and New Instruments to Improve Accuracy and Operational Efficiency 

Frédéric Guattari, Anthony Bercy, Arnaud Gaillot, Damien Ponceau, and Vincent Leray

Accurate horizontal orientation of three-component seismic sensors remains a persistent weakness in field deployments, despite its direct impact on modern seismological observables and advanced processing methods. While orientation is routinely performed using magnetic compasses for practicality, the effective accuracy achieved in the field is often insufficient and leads to systematic errors that propagate into receiver functions, amplitude and polarization analyses, propagation direction estimates, waveform separation, and moment tensor inversion. Large-scale surveys of permanent and temporary networks report frequent misorientations at the multi-degree level, with a worldwide dispersion typically on the order of several degrees, and a significant fraction of stations exhibiting errors well above 4–10°.

This contribution reviews current practices used to transfer the North direction to seismic stations, with emphasis on the real causes of misorientation in operational conditions: magnetic declination handling (including temporal drift of the magnetic pole), local magnetic disturbances (geology, infrastructure, reinforced concrete, metallic objects, and even the station itself), and the intrinsic limitations of visual alignment and reference transfer. Post-installation orientation estimation techniques, although valuable, often remain an additional and fragile processing step, not consistently preserved as station metadata and not always correctly exploited by end users.

A specific focus is placed on the orientation accuracy required to enable reliable array-derived rotation (ADR), which explicitly links field alignment to scientific performance. Building on published uncertainty analyses, we highlight that station misalignment is among the dominant contributors to ADR uncertainty, and that replacing magnetic compasses by gyrocompass-based procedures can reduce uncertainty by about one order of magnitude while extending the usable wavelength band toward longer periods—thereby unlocking higher-value array analyses.

To address this gap between scientific needs and field reality, we introduce the NJORD product line, designed specifically for seismic station orientation, from cost-effective solutions to higher-performance instruments compatible with static deployments and field. Among these, the Årian true-north finder is a compact, handheld static optical gyrocompass enabling rapid operation (alignment time < 4 minutes), one-day field autonomy, and an export-free approach requiring no aiding sensors (no GNSS, no magnetics), with a stated heading performance of 0.9° seclat RMS.

Årian is intented to shift field-deployment practice, enabling high-quality station orientation to become routine rather than exceptional, improving both data quality and operational efficiency at network scale.

How to cite: Guattari, F., Bercy, A., Gaillot, A., Ponceau, D., and Leray, V.: Orientation to True North for Seismic Stations: Review of Field Practices and New Instruments to Improve Accuracy and Operational Efficiency, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22593, 2026.

EGU26-23075 | Posters on site | SM3.1

Land-seismic capabilities at GEUS 

Marie Keiding, Lukas Sólheim, Aurélien Mordret, Peter Voss, Emil Fønss Jensen, Tine Larsen, Trine Dahl-Jensen, and Nicolai Rinds

The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) has recently expanded and modernised its land seismic equipment portfolio to support high-resolution seismic imaging and monitoring for research, public-sector tasks, and industry collaboration. This contribution presents the current land seismic capabilities at GEUS, acquired during late 2023 and early 2024, and highlights their applicability across a broad range of near-surface and crustal-scale investigations.

The source capability is centred on two modern vibroseis trucks (INOVA UV2), providing peak forces of up to 115 kN and a broad operational frequency range from below 1 Hz to 400 Hz. The units comply with EU Stage V emission standards, enabling environmentally responsible seismic acquisition in both urban and rural settings. Their flexibility makes them suitable for applications ranging from high-resolution near-surface surveys to deeper structural imaging and monitoring.

On the receiver side, GEUS operates an extensive wireless nodal system comprising 1200 Sercel WING digital field units equipped with one-component MEMS accelerometers. The system offers high timing accuracy via GPS synchronisation, bandwidth up to 400 Hz, and long battery autonomy (up to 50 days), allowing efficient large-scale 2D and 3D deployments as well as long-term passive or active monitoring campaigns. Additional sensors can be leased to further upscale acquisition geometries when required.

For rapid, high-resolution profiling, GEUS also maintains a 200 m landstreamer system (SeisMove) equipped with 100 three-component MEMS sensors at 2 m spacing. With bandwidths up to 800 Hz and sub-millisecond sampling options, this system is particularly well-suited for urban surveys, infrastructure studies, and near-surface characterisation where speed and data quality are critical.

These nodal capabilities are complemented by two ASN OptoDAS C01-S Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) interrogators, enabling the use of standard fibre-optic cables as dense, multi-kilometre seismic sensor arrays. The DAS systems significantly extend the receiver portfolio by allowing rapid deployment on existing dark fibers, ultra-dense spatial sampling, and continuous monitoring. They are particularly well-suited for infrastructure monitoring, near-surface studies, and emerging applications in geothermal energy and CO₂ storage surveillance. GEUS also possesses 4 km of its own armoured fiber-optic cable with 4 individual 9/125 μ single-mode OS1-grade fibers for local, high-signal-to-noise ratio deployments.

Together, these complementary systems position GEUS to deliver state-of-the-art land seismic imaging and monitoring solutions, supporting research in seismicity monitoring, groundwater, geohazards, infrastructure, geothermal energy, and CO₂ storage, as well as national and international collaborative projects.

How to cite: Keiding, M., Sólheim, L., Mordret, A., Voss, P., Fønss Jensen, E., Larsen, T., Dahl-Jensen, T., and Rinds, N.: Land-seismic capabilities at GEUS, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-23075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-23075, 2026.

EGU26-23154 | Posters on site | SM3.1

Operations and Organization of the Mobile Finnish Seismic Instrument Pool FINNSIP 

Gregor Hillers, Roméo Courbis, Suvi Heinonen, Tuija Luhta, Joni Mäkinen, Elena Kozlovskaya, Kari Moisi, Jussi Leveinen, Yinshuai Ding, Kari Komminaho, Tahvo Oksanen, and Jonathan Vänskä

We report on the operations and organizational structure of the mobile Finnish seismic instrument pool FINNSIP (https://finnsip.fi) that is jointly owned and operated by five Finnish academic and research institutions. The pool infrastructure was funded by the Research Council of Finland through the FLEX-EPOS project under the FIN-EPOS umbrella. Funding supported the build-up phase from 2021 to 2024, after which the pool continues operating as a national research infrastructure.

The seismic instrumentation includes 46 Güralp broadband seismometers, 4 Güralp accelerometers, 1166 Geospace three-component short-period geophones-digitizers pairs, 71 SmartSolo self-contained three-component short-period geophone units, and 50 Geospace digitizers with cellular connection. This makes it probably the largest coherent mobile seismic instrument pool in Europe in the public sector. Instrument pools, when coupled with efficient data storage and transmission and powerful computing resources, provide strong support for research activities of various institutions. The mobile Finnish seismic instrument pool actively engages with ORFEUS/EIDA and the Geo-INQUIRE project, contributing to the development of community solutions for data discovery and accessibility. Nevertheless, even in developed countries, it remains challenging for a single institution to acquire and maintain a sufficiently large mobile pool of instruments and ensure sustainable data production and distribution. Here we report on the pool’s governance structure, project management, and the challenges encountered in the daily operations. We discuss example of domestic and international collaborative projects of temporary deployments to enhance data-driven subsurface and environmental applications. We report statistics of deployments for active or passive experiments that can range from a few days up to a few years. Over the past 5 years, the pool has supported more than 40 projects and generated more than 110 TB of raw and curated data. Short-period sensors are used in most projects, and a quarter involves deployments of more than 500 nodes, highlighting the demand and interest in large-number nodal deployments.

How to cite: Hillers, G., Courbis, R., Heinonen, S., Luhta, T., Mäkinen, J., Kozlovskaya, E., Moisi, K., Leveinen, J., Ding, Y., Komminaho, K., Oksanen, T., and Vänskä, J.: Operations and Organization of the Mobile Finnish Seismic Instrument Pool FINNSIP, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-23154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-23154, 2026.

EGU26-3816 | ECS | Orals | SM3.2

A Graph-Based Approach for Resolving Conflicts in Underwater Acoustic Event Association for Systematic and Improved Trilateration 

Romain Safran, Pierre-Yves Raumer, Sara Bazin, Anne Briais, and Jean-Yves Royer

Underwater passive acoustics enables the detection of a wide range of sounds from diverse sources, including seismic T-waves. To locate these events, hydrophone arrays are deployed, requiring arrivals to be identified across multiple synchronized sensors. While manual picking is reliable, it is labor-intensive, time-consuming, and prone to human bias. Automated picking using neural networks significantly increases the number of detected events but introduces challenges such as false positives. The next challenge is to associate detections of the same events to locate their source by trilateration.

The recently published TAPAAS algorithm (Raumer et al., 2025) generates candidate associations for these detections. However, among the produced candidates, there is a substantial number of overlapping and subsets of detections leading to different event locations. Relying solely on least-squares cost or RMSE is insufficient to address these conflicts. To overcome this, we developed a systematic approach combining relocation and a graph-based review of conflicting events, which we validated using synthetic event datasets.

When applied to real data from OHASISBIO and CTBTO arrays of hydrophones in the Indian Ocean, our method successfully built comprehensive catalogs of events. In addition, with a sufficient number of hydrophones (> 4), it is possible to check and improve the instrument synchronization. Generally, autonomous instruments are synchronized with a GNSS clock at deployment and upon recovery, allowing to measure the clock drift (~1-2s/yr); but when hydrophones run out of battery before recovery, the final time information is lost (i.e. drift unknonw). We also found that, sometimes, real-time hydrophone clocks are reset. Our approach allowed us to identify and determine these unknown clock drifts or clock offsets, then correct the arrival-times, and iteratively improve the trilateration.

Raumer et al. (2025). Geochem., Geophys., Geosyst. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GC012572

How to cite: Safran, R., Raumer, P.-Y., Bazin, S., Briais, A., and Royer, J.-Y.: A Graph-Based Approach for Resolving Conflicts in Underwater Acoustic Event Association for Systematic and Improved Trilateration, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3816, 2026.

EGU26-5145 | ECS | Orals | SM3.2

Making Hydrophones Speak: Semi-Automated Hydroacoustic Monitoring of a Seafloor Spreading Event 

Pierre-Yves Raumer, Jean-Yves Royer, Bazin Sara, Retailleau Lise, Olive Jean-Arthur, Ballu Valérie, Briais Anne, and Lenhof Edgar and the OHA-GEODAMS Scientific party

In April 2024, a major submarine eruption occurred at the I1 segment of the Southeast Indian Ridge (SEIR), near Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean (see Royer et al., EGU26-GD5.1 and Olive et al., EGU26-GD5.1). Luckily, the OHA-GEODAMS Autonomous Hydrophone (AuH) network had been deployed a few weeks before the event and efficiently monitored the eruptive event. This work presents results from this hydroacoustic monitoring together with an innovative automatic cataloging pipeline that allowed to obtain a full spatio-temporal coverage of the event.

Thanks to the low attenuation of low-frequency hydroacoustic waves, hydroacoustics is known to be an efficient way to monitor earthquake swarms. In this case, the GEODAMS network efficiently monitored the eruptive swarm and detected both direct (P- and S-phases) and indirect (T-phases) seismic waves, as well as H-waves generated by interactions between lava and seawater.

During the first weeks of hydroacoustic activity, more than 500 T-waves and 200 H-waves were detected and their sources located. This enabled a precise relocation of the early swarm of strong, teleseismically-recorded earthquakes (Mw~5) that had been registered in the ISC and GCMT catalogs. It also enabled the detection of smaller events that had been missed by land stations. However, this initial analysis relied on manual annotation, a process that is particularly time-consuming and hinders the possibility to build reliable and near-exhaustive catalogs over extended time periods. To overcome this limitation, a fully automated cataloging pipeline was developed (Raumer et al., 2024 & 2025), enabling systematic detection, association, and location of hydroacoustic signals associated with the swarm. This methodology enabled us to estimate key parameters of the eruptive dynamics, such as the precise timing of sequential dyking events, and subsequent lava outpouring, which was later revealed by diachronous seafloor mapping. Moreover, the seismological catalog showed to be complementary with vertical deformation measurements (detailed in Ballu et al., EGU26-SM3.2).

Beyond its own geodynamical significance, the 2024 I1 eruption constitutes a relevant case study to demonstrate the strong potential of an automated approach for hydroacoustic earthquake monitoring. Future applications of this generic methodology should enable the extraction of geodynamical insights from past and potentially large-scale AuH observatories.

Raumer et al. (2024). Seismica. doi: 10.26443/seismica.v3i2.1344

Raumer et al. (2025). Geochem., Geophys., Geosys. doi: 10.1029/2025GC012572

How to cite: Raumer, P.-Y., Royer, J.-Y., Sara, B., Lise, R., Jean-Arthur, O., Valérie, B., Anne, B., and Edgar, L. and the OHA-GEODAMS Scientific party: Making Hydrophones Speak: Semi-Automated Hydroacoustic Monitoring of a Seafloor Spreading Event, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5145, 2026.

EGU26-5534 | Posters on site | SM3.2

Ocean-Bottom Seismology: Next-Generation Technology Solutions for Marine Monitoring 

Marián Jusko, Stuart Allardice, Ted Somerville, Geoff Bainbridge, and Michael Perlin

Researchers continue to intensify their focus on the seafloor to gain a deeper understanding of the Earth's structure, tectonic processes, and potential hazards through the acquisition of ocean-bottom seismic (OBS) data. However, the unique challenges of deep-sea environments require innovative, purpose-built engineering solutions and robust manufacturing techniques to safeguard data quality, data completeness and system reliability, while meeting scientific objectives and optimizing ease of deployment. A range of cabled and autonomous ocean bottom sensing solutions is now available, supporting the global community’s study of underwater ground motion, its dynamic properties, and natural or triggered events on the seafloor.

This poster presentation provides a comprehensive overview of the engineering challenges in the domain of OBS platforms, highlighting the advancements in technology and capability solutions that the Nanometrics team has developed to address those challenges for various configurations and use cases. With proven technologies such as integrated kinematic gimbals for levelling at all landing tilt angles, an integrated MEMS gyrocompass for precise orientation, and designs certified for deployment depths of up to 6,000 m, this poster will demonstrate that seamless multidisciplinary data collection across diverse marine environments is now more accessible than ever before. Recent technological advances include customer deliveries of both SMART cable seismic instrumentation and an integrated Cabled OBS observatory, expanding options to support a wide range of application-driven sensing instruments and dataloggers. This continuous innovation aims to facilitate further understanding of the dynamic properties in these challenging deep ocean environments.

How to cite: Jusko, M., Allardice, S., Somerville, T., Bainbridge, G., and Perlin, M.: Ocean-Bottom Seismology: Next-Generation Technology Solutions for Marine Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5534, 2026.

EGU26-6002 | Orals | SM3.2

Imaging Crustal Magma Systems and Mantle Dynamics with Large Amphibian OBS Arrays 

Emilie Hooft and the PROTEUS team & Marine IGUANA team

Amphibian geophysical experiments are transforming our ability to image Earth’s interior beneath the oceans, yet only a limited number of deployments have been designed at the scale and density required to address specific scientific questions from the crust to the mantle. In this invited talk, I synthesize results from two large ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) experiments, at Santorini and the Galápagos, that demonstrate a range of science questions, spatial scales, depth ranges, and physical targets.

To image magma transport throughout the entire crust at an arc volcano, the PROTEUS experiment deployed a uniquely dense amphibian short-period array of 89 OBS and 65 land stations at the Santorini-Kolumbo volcanic system. The design combined active-source and passive seismic observations to resolve crustal magma plumbing and volcanic structure at kilometer-scale resolution. The data revealed the depth, volume, and melt extent of shallow magma accumulation beneath the Santorini caldera and demonstrated that caldera-collapse structures formed during the Late Bronze Age Plinian eruption continue to control present-day magma recharge, including the 2011-2012 and 2024-2025 inflation episodes. Imaging further showed how the evolution of regional extension during the Neogene to Quaternary formed a complex of faulted basins.  This tectonic system has interacted with magmatism, influencing magma pathways, storage geometry, and anisotropic crustal structure.

A key advance was the discovery of a small, high–melt-fraction magma chamber beneath the adjacent Kolumbo volcano at ~2–4 km depth using full-waveform inversion; an approach enabled by the first use of dense source–receiver coverage at a volcanic system. The smaller size of this eruptible magma reservoir meant it could not be detected using traditional travel-time tomography. More recent tomography leverages the large aperture of the array to extend the velocity structure to greater depths, revealing a mid-crustal magma storage region (8-15 km depth) laterally offset from both Santorini and Kolumbo, as well as deep accumulation of mafic–ultramafic material that thickens the crust beneath Santorini. This crustal framework is central to interpreting the February 2025 seismic swarm, whose migration pattern is consistent with a substantial magma intrusion interacting with extensional faulting.

In contrast, the Marine IGUANA experiment was designed to address mantle-scale questions, including plume-ridge interaction and lithosphere-asthenosphere coupling beneath the Galápagos. These questions require broad spatial coverage and long-duration recordings of natural earthquakes, motivating a 15-month deployment of 53 broadband OBS spanning a ~650 × 800 km region around the archipelago and the nearby Galápagos Spreading Center. Preliminary results reveal low-velocity mantle structures in both P- and S-waves associated with hot plume material, high-velocity material consistent with foundering lithosphere, and plume transport to both the eastern and western Galápagos spreading centers. In addition, spatial variations in seismic anisotropy indicate mantle flow due to absolute plate motion that is modified by the mantle plume.

Together, these experiments illustrate how science-driven experimental design enables insights into processes ranging from crustal magma systems to mantle dynamics, highlighting the power of dense, large-aperture amphibian OBS arrays to address Earth science questions across different scales.

How to cite: Hooft, E. and the PROTEUS team & Marine IGUANA team: Imaging Crustal Magma Systems and Mantle Dynamics with Large Amphibian OBS Arrays, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6002, 2026.

EGU26-7119 | Posters on site | SM3.2

Introducing SEASMO: SEismo-Acoustic Submarine Mediterranean Observatory 

Sergio Sciré Scappuzzo and the SEASMO Team

The SEASMO (SEismo-Acoustic Submarine Mediterranean Observatory) platform represents a major technological advancement in deep-sea multidisciplinary monitoring. Situated in the Ionian Sea at a depth of 3,450 meters, approximately 80 km SE offshore from Portopalo di Capo Passero, Sicily, the observatory was successfully deployed in October 2024 as part of the “Marine Hazard” project. Having now surpassed its first year of continuous operation, SEASMO has established itself as a cornerstone of real-time scientific data acquisition and environmental risk mitigation within the Mediterranean basin.

This sophisticated facility is the result of a strategic collaboration between the National Institute for Nuclear Physics (INFN) and the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV). The platform leverages the world-class deep-sea neutrino telescope KM3NeT/IDMAR infrastructure, utilizing two primary 100 km electro-optical cables to provide robust connectivity. This high-bandwidth link connects a submarine network of junction boxes equipped with Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) mateable wet connectors to an onshore laboratory, ensuring a stable power supply and instantaneous telemetry for uninterrupted data transfer.

A key feature of SEASMO is its complete integration into global and national monitoring frameworks. It is officially registered in the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) database under the station code MHPPL, operating as part of the KM3NeT Seismic Network (K3). Beyond its registration, the station’s data stream is directly integrated into the INGV seismic monitoring system, significantly extending the reach of the national seismic network into the offshore environment. Furthermore, the observatory is currently being incorporated into the operational workflow of the Tsunami Alert Center (CAT-INGV), providing essential offshore data that enhances the accuracy and timeliness of natural hazard alerts for the region. This latter is particularly important given that some of the most damaging historical earthquakes in the Mediterranean realm were generated by offshore active faults located close to the Sicilian coastline, including the “1693 Val di Noto earthquake” and the “1908 Messina earthquake” (M > 7). Nonetheless, the observatory is also located close to the poorly constrained Ionian Subduction Zone, whose potential to generate subduction-related megathrust earthquakes remains unclear.

The scientific payload of the station is specifically designed for high-resolution environmental and geodynamic characterization. Central to its mission is a 120-second broadband Ocean Bottom Seismometer (OBS) and a high-resolution hydrophone, capable of detecting frequencies with a 12.8 kHz bandwidth down to  1 Hz. This combination allows for the precise monitoring of seismic activity and the characterization of both natural and anthropogenic acoustic sources, providing critical insights into the impact of human activities on marine ecosystems. Additionally, the suite includes a Conductivity, Temperature, and Depth (CTD) sensor for tracking physical-chemical shifts in the water column, as well as detecting  high-resolution temporal  sea-level anomalies.

Throughout its operation, SEASMO has demonstrated the reliability of its automated data-processing routines, providing 24/7 real-time monitoring of the deep Mediterranean and offering a unique window into its geodynamics and acoustic soundscape, with considerable implications for marine science and hazard prevention.

How to cite: Sciré Scappuzzo, S. and the SEASMO Team: Introducing SEASMO: SEismo-Acoustic Submarine Mediterranean Observatory, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7119, 2026.

EGU26-7689 | Posters on site | SM3.2

ECHO project: Multi-parameter calibration of the GeoLab DAS fibre, Madeira, Portugal 

Afonso Loureiro, David Schlaphorst, Carlos Corela, Luís Manuel Matias, Álvaro Peliz, Rita Ferreira, Andreia Pereira, and Jesus Reis

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) enables broadband strain measurements with exceptional spatial and temporal resolution, effectively transforming fibre-optic cables into dense sensor arrays. Its ability to operate continuously and cost-effectively in challenging environments makes DAS a powerful tool for geophysical, seismological, and oceanographic research. However, the lack of adequate transfer functions linking DAS strain measurements to true ground motion remains a key limitation for its reliable use in quantitative seismic analysis.

Project ECHO (Earthquakes, Currents, Hydroacoustics, and Oceanography) addresses this limitation by establishing local, empirically derived transfer functions for the GeoLab fibre. By deploying a suite of collocated reference instruments along the cable track, the project will characterize the contributions of ground motion, temperature, pressure, and oceanographic processes to the measured DAS strain, and also quantify cross-sensitivities between these parameters.

To constrain strain and ground motion, two ocean-bottom seismometers equipped with additional pressure and temperature sensors will be deployed at water depths exceeding 2000 m, complemented by a land-based seismic station. Oceanographic variability will be monitored using acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) and conductivity, temperature, depth (CTD) sensors. Hydrophones will serve as an independent reference for calibrating the DAS response to underwater acoustic signals, including marine mammal vocalizations and anthropogenic sound sources, with complementary confirmation of low frequency signals from the ocean-bottom seismometers.

Expected outcomes include segment-specific DAS transfer functions, a DAS-derived seismic catalogue, detection and classification of marine mammals from their vocalizations, the development of DAS-based proxies for sea-state variability, and an assessment of the feasibility of shear-wave splitting analysis given the existing cable geometry. Together, these results will advance understanding of regional seismicity, ocean dynamics from the coastal zone to the deep basin, and underwater acoustics, while substantially enhancing the scientific utility and applicability of DAS in Earth and marine sciences.

The richness of the multi-parameter datasets acquired within ECHO create significant opportunities for interdisciplinary collaboration, providing a unique framework for joint studies across seismology, physical oceanography, marine ecology, and fibre-optic sensing. This integrated approach is intended to foster collaboration within the broader scientific community and to stimulate the development of novel methodologies and applications beyond the immediate scope of the project.

All datasets generated by ECHO will be released under F.A.I.R. principles at the conclusion of the project.

This work is supported by the ECHO project (DOI: 10.54499/2024.13655.PEX), ARDITI - Agência Regional para o Desenvolvimento da lnvestigação, Tecnologia e lnovação, the SUBMERSE EU project (GA 101095055), and FCT, I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC): LA/P/0068/2020 (DOI:10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020), UID/50019/2025 (DOI: 10.54499/UID/50019/2025), UID/PRR2/50019/2025 (DOI: 10.54499/UID/PRR/50019/2025).

How to cite: Loureiro, A., Schlaphorst, D., Corela, C., Matias, L. M., Peliz, Á., Ferreira, R., Pereira, A., and Reis, J.: ECHO project: Multi-parameter calibration of the GeoLab DAS fibre, Madeira, Portugal, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7689, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7689, 2026.

EGU26-9061 | Posters on site | SM3.2

Challenges and rewards: a chronicle of vertical displacements during a seafloor spreading event at the Southeast Indian Ridge, from a seafloor pressure A0A recorder 

Valerie Ballu, Laurent Testut, Denis Dausse, Jean-Yves Royer, Jean-Arthur Olive, Yann-Treden Tranchant, Réjane Joyard, Angèle Laurent, Sara Bazin, Lise Retailleau, Anne Briais, Pierre-Yves Raumer, and Edgar Lenhof and the OHA-GEODAMS

Vertical ground deformation is a key parameter to document magmatic or tectonic processes occurring below the surface, such as magma movement, tectonic strain build-up or seismic rupture. When occurring underwater, vertical deformation can be quantified using ocean bottom pressure gauges. Although these gauges have an intrinsic resolution sufficient to document sub centimeter movements, the identification and precise quantification of vertical displacements face several challenges due to instrumental drift modeling, ocean dynamics or instrumental artefacts or orientation related sensitivity.

In 2024 and 2025, in the framework of the GEODAMS project (see related presentations Royer et al. and Olive et al., in session EGU26-GD5.1), we carried out repeated bathymetric surveys and deployed an A0A gauge - a bottom pressure recorder with a built-in drift controlling system - along with networks of seafloor acoustic transponders and moored hydrophones (Raumer et al., EGU26-SM3.2). This experiment allowed us to detect and characterize a major magmato-tectonic event which, luckily, occurred 2 months after the initial bathymetric survey and instrument installation. The detailed description of this unique event will be given in the presentation by Royer et al. (EGU26-GD5.1).

Our presentation will focus on the interpretation of the recorded pressure variations to derive a chronicle of vertical deformation, before, during and after the magmato-tectonic event. Although the instrument recorded a spectacular total subsidence close to 4 meters, the precise quantification of the deformation through the submarine eruption requires a precise modeling of the instrumental drift and changes in calibration parameters, which may be affected by likely changes in gauge orientation induced by the seafloor deformation.

How to cite: Ballu, V., Testut, L., Dausse, D., Royer, J.-Y., Olive, J.-A., Tranchant, Y.-T., Joyard, R., Laurent, A., Bazin, S., Retailleau, L., Briais, A., Raumer, P.-Y., and Lenhof, E. and the OHA-GEODAMS: Challenges and rewards: a chronicle of vertical displacements during a seafloor spreading event at the Southeast Indian Ridge, from a seafloor pressure A0A recorder, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9061, 2026.

EGU26-10836 | Orals | SM3.2

High Resolution Microseismicity in the İzmit Basin-Sea of Marmara from OBS Data 

Dr. Tuğçe Ergün, Nurcan Meral Özel, Yojiro Yamamoto, Narumi Takahashi, Remzi Polat, Uğur Mustafa Teoman, Fatih Turhan, Ahmet Anıl Dindar, Yoshiyuki Kaneda, and Kato Aitaro

The İzmit Basin, located at the easternmost part of the Sea of Marmara, constitutes a key segment of the North Anatolian Fault system where the main fault strand bifurcates into northern and southern branches. This structurally complex transition zone is characterized by interacting fault segments and distributed deformation, making it a critical area for investigating microseismic activity.  The dataset analyzed in this study was acquired by an ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) deployment in the İzmit Basin. Eight OBS stations equipped with 4.5 Hz geophones were deployed in September 2023 and recovered in July 2024, providing approximately 10 months of continuous three-component seismic recordings. The instruments recorded data at a sampling rate of 100 samples per second, enabling the detection of local microearthquakes with magnitudes down to approximately M 0.2.

Initial earthquake locations reveal dense microseismic activity distributed along both the northern and southern branches of the North Anatolian Fault, as well as within intervening fault segments and fracture zones connecting these branches. These preliminary patterns highlight active deformation within the basin but exhibit significant scatter in both epicentral location and hypocentral depth, primarily due to velocity-model uncertainties and sediment effects inherent to offshore OBS observations. Reliable earthquake locations, in both horizontal and vertical dimensions, are critical for resolving fault-specific seismicity patterns and for investigating depth-dependent variations in seismic parameters, such as b-values. To improve location accuracy, events were refined using VELEST (Kissling et al., 1994), which iteratively optimizes a one-dimensional P- and S-wave velocity model and relocates earthquakes by minimizing travel-time residuals.

The initial VELEST velocity models display substantial scatter at shallow depths, particularly within the upper 0–5 km, reflecting strong sediment-related velocity uncertainties typical of offshore OBS observations. Following iterative relocation and velocity model optimization, the final VELEST solutions show clear convergence of both P- and S-wave velocities. The most pronounced improvement is observed within the 3–12 km depth range, corresponding to the main seismogenic layer. At depths around 10 km, the optimized models yield Vp values of approximately 5.8–6.2 km/s and Vs values of approximately 3.3–3.6 km/s, consistent with previous studies in the Marmara region and indicating a physically meaningful, data-driven velocity structure. The VELEST-based iterative velocity model optimization substantially reduces velocity uncertainty within the seismogenic depth range (approximately 5–15 km), leading to improved hypocentral depth and overall location reliability. The refined locations delineate coherent patterns of microseismic activity along the fault branches and connecting structures, providing a high-resolution view of seismic deformation in the İzmit Basin.

How to cite: Ergün, Dr. T., Meral Özel, N., Yamamoto, Y., Takahashi, N., Polat, R., Teoman, U. M., Turhan, F., Dindar, A. A., Kaneda, Y., and Aitaro, K.: High Resolution Microseismicity in the İzmit Basin-Sea of Marmara from OBS Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10836, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10836, 2026.

EGU26-11722 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.2

A cabled, real time ocean bottom seismometer in the western Baltic Sea 

Lars Wiesenberg, Christian Weidle, Robert Mars, Mischa Schönke, Steffen Uhlmann, and Thomas Meier

Real-time seismic monitoring infrastructure requires permanent power and data transmission and therefore largely relies on land-based seismological stations. As a result, regional seismic monitoring of marine regions remains challenging with respect to event detection thresholds and hypocentral location accuracy. Particular challenges in seismic event monitoring in Northern Germany are the occurrence of both natural and anthropogenic events in the southern Baltic Sea and therefore the discrimination of event source types and, for tectonic events, hypocentral depth determination of earthquakes in the wider Tornquist zone region. Beyond that, seismic monitoring gained in recent years importance as an additional tool to monitor critical infrastructure as well as controlled and uncontrolled detonations of unexploded ordnance (UXO).

Recent advances in both offshore infrastructure and seismic offshore instrumentation systems provide a realistic opportunity to facilitate deployments of continuous, real-time ocean-bottom seismometers to significantly improve monitoring capabilities in offshore regions.

In summer 2025, we deployed a three component, cabled broad band Ocean Bottom Seismometer (Trillium Compact OBS) at the Darss Sill in the western Baltic Sea. At the site, the permanent MARNET monitoring station, operated by the Leibniz Institute of Baltic Sea Research in Warnemünde on behalf of the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) provides the infrastructure for a prototype deployment of a real-time OBS system. Seismic data is transmitted in near real-time to the data center at Kiel University and included in the real-time monitoring system. Over the past months, the OBS installation has been continuously improved, to enhance the data quality. The MARNET station also records oceanographic, biological and meteorological parameters that can be used to improve our understanding of ocean generated microseism with in situ data. While models and theories exist for microseism generation in the deep ocean, its generation mechanisms in coastal areas is still an open question.

We present first data observations and correlations and discuss challenges and opportunities for future offshore seismological monitoring in Northern Germany coastal region.

How to cite: Wiesenberg, L., Weidle, C., Mars, R., Schönke, M., Uhlmann, S., and Meier, T.: A cabled, real time ocean bottom seismometer in the western Baltic Sea, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11722, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11722, 2026.

EGU26-11873 | Posters on site | SM3.2

Güralp Ocean Bottom Monitoring Solutions: Autonomous Nodes, Cabled Observatories and SMART Cables 

James Lindsey, Neil Watkiss, Jamie Calver, Antoaneta Kerkenyakova, Krystian Kitka, Philip Hill, and Federica Restelli

Autonomous free-fall ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS) offer flexible deployment and redeployment options. The Güralp Aquarius operates at any orientation without a gimbal and can wirelessly transmit state-of-health (SOH) and seismic data to the surface via an integrated acoustic modem. This enables monitoring and partial real-time data transmission without offshore cabling, reducing logistical complexity while maintaining data accessibility. These capabilities make Aquarius well suited to OBS pool operations, including the National Facility for Seismic Imaging in Canada, one of the most recent large-scale OBS pools to become operational worldwide. In contrast, cabled observatory systems provide continuous, high-resolution real-time data via direct connections to onshore infrastructure. The Güralp Orcus is a compact underwater seismic station integrating a broadband seismometer and strong-motion accelerometer in a single package. The slimline Güralp Maris offers additional flexibility, using the same omnidirectional sensor as Aquarius and supporting deployment on the seabed or within narrow-diameter subsea boreholes. Both systems are deployed globally within multidisciplinary observatories, including the Neptune array operated by Ocean Networks Canada.

SMART Cables represent a promising pathway to expanding cabled ocean observatory networks at significantly reduced cost. By combining seismology, oceanography, and telecommunications within a single system, large-scale monitoring networks can be developed through shared logistics and funding across industries. Güralp has demonstrated this approach through a successful wet demonstration in the Ionian Sea, conducted in collaboration with the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), representing the first practical deployment of this technology. Future projects will leverage low-power, low-volume sensor and data acquisition designs to support both commercial SMART cable initiatives and science-driven observatories.

How to cite: Lindsey, J., Watkiss, N., Calver, J., Kerkenyakova, A., Kitka, K., Hill, P., and Restelli, F.: Güralp Ocean Bottom Monitoring Solutions: Autonomous Nodes, Cabled Observatories and SMART Cables, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11873, 2026.

EGU26-12651 | Orals | SM3.2

On the value of multiphysics instrumentation on the seafloor  

Tim Minshull, Gaye Bayrakci, Steven Constable, and Kyle Ivey and the UK Ocean Bottom Instrumentation Facility

It is well known that seismic and electromagnetic experiments provide complementary information regarding lithology and fluid content. There are many published examples where marine seismic and electromagnetic experiments have been conducted on the same geological target and their results combined to provide new insights, and a few where such pairs of experiments have been conducted on coincident profiles. For both techniques, normally the most time-consuming and therefore most expensive component is seabed instrument deployment and recovery. In 2023 we conducted a novel experiment that involved acquisition of both seismic and electromagnetic data using seafloor instruments equipped with both types of sensor that therefore only needed to be deployed once. We deployed 35 Scripps instruments equipped with orthogonal horizontal electrodes, orthogonal horizontal coil magnetometers and 14 instruments from the UK Ocean Bottom Instrumentation Facility equipped with orthogonal horizontal electrodes, three-component fluxgate magnetometers, hydrophones and short-period three-component geophone packages. These instruments were deployed for c. two weeks at c. 4-km intervals along a transect across the continent-ocean transition southwest of the UK. During this time, we shot two different airgun sources and then conducted a controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) experiment by towing Southampton’s deep-towed electromagnetic transmitter along the transect. Our transect coincided with a pre-existing seismic reflection profile collected with a 10-km streamer as part of an Irish government project (covering part of the transect) and a new profile with a 2-km streamer acquired during a test cruise by the National Oceanography Centre in 2024 (covering the remainder of the transect).

 

The resulting rich dataset allows a variety of analyses, some of which are only made possible by the multiphysics acquisition. Electromagnetic sensors are normally located by acoustic triangulation; these locations can be improved by using the airgun shots. The fluxgate magnetometers can be used as compasses to orient both the electromagnetic sensors and the horizontal geophones. At crustal level, the seismic and CSEM experiments allow us to obtain coincident P-wave velocity and resistivity models at similar resolution. Magnetotelluric data provide constraints on the mantle lithosphere and the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. Our seismic experiment is not designed to image at these depths, but there are some constraints from teleseismic events such as the 8th September Morocco earthquake, which is well recorded across our array. Additional constraints may come from ambient noise cross-correlation of hydrophone data, which extend to 10-12 s period. Airgun shots and the Morocco earthquake are well recorded by magnetometer channels and our electromagnetic transmitter is well recorded by geophone channels; these coupled signals may yield further complementary information about Earth structure.

How to cite: Minshull, T., Bayrakci, G., Constable, S., and Ivey, K. and the UK Ocean Bottom Instrumentation Facility: On the value of multiphysics instrumentation on the seafloor , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12651, 2026.

EGU26-13418 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.2

Investigating the nature of the Australian/Pacific plate boundary beneath Macquarie Island using teleseismic tomography 

Yingbo Li, Nicholas Rawlinson, ChuanChuan Lü, Thomas O'Hara, Tom Winder, Hrvoje Tkalcic, Mike Coffin, and Joann Stock

Macquarie Island is a small sliver of uplifted oceanic crust and mantle lying between New Zealand and Antarctica, near the middle of the Macquarie Ridge Complex (MRC) - a transpressional plate boundary that divides the Australian and Pacific plates. Evidence for subduction initiation has previously been found at both extremities of the MRC, yet subsurface information on its central portion near Macquarie Island remains limited. In this study, we extract teleseismic waveform data from ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) deployed around Macquarie Island between October 2020 and November 2021 in conjunction with a small number of temporary land stations and the permanent MCQ station in order to perform teleseismic tomography across the region. We apply a denoising scheme (ATaCR) to help extract as much usable data as possible from the noisy OBS recordings to produce a denoised dataset, which we intend on using to image subcrustal features in order to better understand the nature of this plate boundary.

How to cite: Li, Y., Rawlinson, N., Lü, C., O'Hara, T., Winder, T., Tkalcic, H., Coffin, M., and Stock, J.: Investigating the nature of the Australian/Pacific plate boundary beneath Macquarie Island using teleseismic tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13418, 2026.

EGU26-13683 | Posters on site | SM3.2

Moho Discontinuity Structure using Data from Land Stations and a Broad Atlantic OBS Network – Potential and Challenges 

David Schlaphorst, Graça Silveira, Ana Ferreira, Nuno Dias, and Miguel Miranda

In northern Macaronesia in the Atlantic the Azores, Canaries and Madeira are three mantle upwelling surface expressions. While Madeira and the Canaries are located on old oceanic crust as intraplate hotspots (~135 Ma and 150-180 Ma), the Azores result from interaction between a hotspot and the Mid-AtlanticRidge and sit on younger crust (<50 Ma). Mantle upwellings can influence the subsurface discontinuity structure, including shallow crustal contributions, in an area that reaches beyond the locations of the islands into the offshore oceanic subsurface. Therefore, an observation of seismic crust and upper mantle properties in the whole region is key to understanding mantle dynamics and its effect on volcanism.

Since seismic stations are mostly found on land, offshore seismic measurements are more challenging and globally sparse. From 2021 to 2022 an OBS network was deployed in the oceanic region of northern Macaronesia by the UPFLOW project. This deployment enables, for the first time in this region, the investigation of discontinuity variations over a broad offshore area and their comparison with land-station observations from the islands.

With P-S receiver functions we obtain high-resolution point measurements of the Moho and further intercrustal and upper mantle discontinuities beneath 43 stations. We use frequencies of 0.4 to 3 Hz, but add higher frequency ranges to investigate the robustness. Furthermore, we compare frequency- and time-domain deconvolution techniques. Moho depths vary between 5 to 12 km, in some places over short length-scales, which could be linked to melt generation and composition changes. The crustal structure is more complex around the Azores region, reflecting the complex dynamics around the mantle upwellings. Oceanic noise levels, shallow subsurface structure, and thick sediments – particularly in the southeastern part of the region – pose additional challenges by causing receiver-function polarity flips and less well-defined converted-phase arrivals, which complicate interpretation.

This contributes to projects AMULETO (2022.06660.CEECIND) and GEMMA (DOI:10.54499/PTDC/CTA-GEO/2083/2021). This work is supported by FCT, I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC): LA/P/0068/2020 - https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020 , UID/50019/2025,  https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/PRR/50019/2025, UID/PRR2/50019/2025.

How to cite: Schlaphorst, D., Silveira, G., Ferreira, A., Dias, N., and Miranda, M.: Moho Discontinuity Structure using Data from Land Stations and a Broad Atlantic OBS Network – Potential and Challenges, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13683, 2026.

EGU26-14832 | Posters on site | SM3.2

Updates to and New Applications of the ATaCR Package for Tilt and Compliance Removal 

Helen Janiszewski, Joshua Russell, Pascal Audet, and Yuechu Wu

Transfer function techniques are commonly used to remove tilt and compliance noise from broadband ocean bottom seismometers (BBOBS), particularly at periods longer than 10 s. Temporary deployments and cabled observatory installations utilizing BBOBS have increased in the past several years and involved a variety of different organizations globally. Furthermore, techniques utilizing non-traditional approaches, such as short-period ambient noise and the expanded use of horizontal-component seismic data, have also expanded. Here we present updates to the Automated Tilt and Compliance Removal (ATaCR) package, designed to help users both assess and remove noise from BBOBS projects. In particular, we have improved flexibility and assessment metrics to better meet the variety of approaches necessary for modern analyses. Notable additions include: (1) summary figures assessing tilt properties; (2) improved phase analyses to discriminate between microseismic and other sources of noise; (3) expanded flexibility to incorporate a variety of data and metadata, such as quality control metrics, and instrument handedness; (4) generalized TF removal algorithm to allow exploration of non-traditional correction sequences; (5) transfer function workflows for ambient noise imaging.

How to cite: Janiszewski, H., Russell, J., Audet, P., and Wu, Y.: Updates to and New Applications of the ATaCR Package for Tilt and Compliance Removal, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14832, 2026.

EGU26-15079 | Posters on site | SM3.2

UPFLOW 3-D mantle tomography from crust to core 

Ana MG Ferreira, Katrina Harris, Michael Witek, Sung-Joon Chang, Mohammad Veisi, Maria Tsekhmistrenko, and Miguel Miranda

As part of the ERC (European Research Council)-funded UPFLOW project (2021–2027), we conducted the largest passive seafoor seismic experiment to date in the Atlantic, focusing on the Azores-Madeira-Canary Islands region, a unique setting with multiple unresolved upwellings. Between June 2021 and August 2022, we deployed 50 and recovered 49 ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) across a ~1,000×2,000 area with ~110–160 km spacing. The data reveal a wealth of good quality seismic signals, enabling detailed imaging of mantle upwellings and opening avenues for interdisciplinary research in marine biology and oceanography.

We present our ongoing UPFLOW 3-D mantle model series, which uses a combination of massive global seismic datasets (millions of body wave travel-times, multimode surface wave dispersion data) with tens of thousands of measurements from UPFLOW's OBS waveforms. Various modelling approaches are used ranging from computationally efficient ray theory-based global inversions to finite-frequency and waveform approaches. We invert for a range of model parameters including shear- and P-wave speed, as well as for radial anisotropy.

Our images show complex 3-D structures from the upper mantle to the lowermost mantle. We also observe lateral links between low velocity anomalies beneath the Canary, Azores and Madeira Islands associated with positive radial anisotropy anomalies, which possibly indicate plume ponding and horizontal mantle flow. Moreover, low-velocity anomalies right beneath the Azores appear not to extend into the lower mantle; instead, they seem to spread laterally and connect to the lower mantle beneath the center of our study region. We discuss the resolution of our images and well as their scope and geodynamical implications.

How to cite: Ferreira, A. M., Harris, K., Witek, M., Chang, S.-J., Veisi, M., Tsekhmistrenko, M., and Miranda, M.: UPFLOW 3-D mantle tomography from crust to core, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15079, 2026.

EGU26-15093 | ECS | Orals | SM3.2

The Lower St. Lawrence Seismic Zone Ocean Bottom Seismometer Deployment 

Elahe Sirati, Alexandre Plourde, Yajing Liu, Justin Chien, Fiona Darbyshire, Mladen Nedimović, and Miao Zhang

The Lower St. Lawrence Seismic Zone, a paleorift zone in Quebec, is one of the most seismically active areas in eastern Canada. It underlies the St. Lawrence Estuary, which is itself an important habitat for endangered baleen whales. Between 2023 and 2025, we carried out two deployments of an amphibious seismic network with eight broadband ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS) and four coastal stations to monitor earthquakes and baleen whales. The OBS were deployed via free-fall; we present the required preliminary analysis including 1) clock-drift calculation using ambient noise cross-correlation, 2) tilt estimation using transfer functions, and 3) horizontal-component orientation using passing ships as a noise source. 

We apply machine learning pickers in combination with probabilistic earthquake phase association to construct an earthquake catalogue. Initial results indicate a detection rate of roughly twice that of the Canadian National Earthquake Database, although some detections may be rock blasts. Fin and blue whale calls are monitored using their characteristic internote intervals. An increase in vocal activity of both species is observed between the first (2023-24) and second (2024-25) deployments, despite the second being shorter in duration and missing the typically active month of October. In terms of per-OBS averages, fin whale activity increased from 63 active days to 97, and the number of detected calls per active day increased from 270 to 960, whereas blue whales remained more consistent in terms of active days (83 to 76) but the number of calls per active day increased from 106 to 173.

How to cite: Sirati, E., Plourde, A., Liu, Y., Chien, J., Darbyshire, F., Nedimović, M., and Zhang, M.: The Lower St. Lawrence Seismic Zone Ocean Bottom Seismometer Deployment, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15093, 2026.

The Queen Charlotte Triple Junction (QCTJ) is a complex plate boundary offshore British Columbia, Canada, linking the Cascadia subduction zone, the Queen Charlotte transform fault, and the Juan de Fuca Ridge through the Revere–Dellwood fault (RDF) system. This region accommodates marked changes in plate motion and deformation style over short spatial scales, yet its offshore structure and seismicity remain poorly constrained due to distant land-based seismic coverage. The Pacific Coast Seismic Assessment for Faults and Earthquakes (PACSAFE) is a multi-year Canadian ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) program designed to resolve this plate-boundary transition through dense, multi-deployment offshore monitoring.

During Leg 1 (October 2023-July 2024), 26 broadband OBS from the National Facility for Seismological Investigations (Dalhousie University) were deployed across the QCTJ and adjacent segments of the RDF and Explorer Ridge, and continental shelf break. During the deployment, two of these instruments located along the continental shelf break as well as one on the RDF prematurely released from the sea floor.  All remaining 23 instruments were successfully recovered. Clock drift corrections were applied by the NFSI technical team, then orientations of all instruments were computed using local and teleseismic waveforms. We then applied a deep-learned based approach to phase picking, utilizing the OBSTransformer on the 3-component data, resulting in ~1.23 million P phases and ~3.11 million S phases. These arrivals were associated and located using the maximum likelihood approach, to generate a catalog of ~11,000 events. These events were then reduced using additional quality control parameters, and double-difference relocated using both pick times and waveform cross correlations. The resulting relocated catalog contains more than 5,000 of the most robustly relocated events.

The catalog reveals dense, previously unobserved microseismicity that delineates near-vertical fault strands, fault-perpendicular seismicity lineations associated with the Revere-Dellwood transform and multiple seismicity strands associated with the northern Explorer ridge and transform system. Seismicity extends from near the seafloor to ~20 km depth, with most activity concentrated between 5 and 10 km. We provide new observations with unprecedented constraints on deformation and plate-boundary partitioning within the QCTJ. Ongoing analyses of focal mechanisms, seismicity, and tectonic context will further refine models of seismic and tsunami hazard for Canada’s Pacific margin.

How to cite: Schaeffer, A. and Bostock, M. and the PACSAFE Team: High-resolution seismicity and fault imaging of the Queen Charlotte Triple Junction region from the PACSAFE Leg1 ocean-bottom seismometer network, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15321, 2026.

EGU26-15400 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.2

Constraining shallow S-wave velocity structure beneath the Azores–Madeira–Canaries region from Rayleigh-wave ellipticity analysis using UPFLOW data 

Tae-shin Kim, Ana M.G. Ferreira, Glenn A. Jones, and Sung-Joon Chang

Seafloor sediment layers strongly influence seismic signals recorded by ocean-bottom seismometers through reverberations, velocity reduction, and waveform amplification. These effects can significantly bias seismic observations, limiting investigations of the oceanic crust and mantle. While direct drilling and active-source seismic surveys provide robust constraints on sediment structure, they are not always feasible in areas instrumented solely with passive seafloor seismometers. In this study, we estimate Rayleigh-wave ellipticity from both ambient seismic noise and earthquake recordings using a polarization-based H/V approach that isolates elliptically polarized Rayleigh waves. Rayleigh-wave ellipticity derived from OBS data shows clear correlations with water depth and sediment thickness. The combined ellipticity curves are inverted using the Neighbourhood Algorithm to constrain crustal shear-wave velocity structure beneath the OBS stations. Our inversion results indicate sedimentary cover thicker than ~2 km beneath the Madeira region, closer to the continent, whereas relatively thin sediment layers are observed near the Azores region. The resulting crustal thickness and shear-wave velocity models across the Azores–Madeira–Canaries region provide a useful reference for future seismic investigations in this region, including studies based on the UPFLOW data.

How to cite: Kim, T., Ferreira, A. M. G., Jones, G. A., and Chang, S.-J.: Constraining shallow S-wave velocity structure beneath the Azores–Madeira–Canaries region from Rayleigh-wave ellipticity analysis using UPFLOW data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15400, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15400, 2026.

EGU26-15728 | ECS | Orals | SM3.2

Evaluation of Self-Calibrating Pressure Gauges for Seafloor Geodesy: Instrument Comparison at Axial Seamount, Barkley Canyon, and the Endeavour Segment 

Yoichiro Dobashi, William Wilcock, Dana Manalang, Kira Smith, Liv Dentoni, Mark Zumberge, Glenn Sasagawa, Matthew Cook, Camille Sullivan, Scott Nooner, William Chadwick, Jeffrey Beeson, Martin Heesemann, and Angela Schlesinger

Seafloor quartz-resonant pressure gauges manufactured by Paroscientific have long been used to measure vertical seafloor deformation, yet the gauge-specific drift characteristics continue to hinder the precise identification of geodetic and oceanic signals. Recent self-calibrating pressure gauge designs address this limitation by housing an internal reference pressure standard that can be isolated from ambient seawater. Scheduled valve operations switch between ambient and reference pressures, thereby enabling in situ drift calibrations that are isolated from oceanographic variability and seafloor deformation. We evaluate four designs of self-calibrating pressure gauges. The University of Washington (UW) A-0-A, commercial Sonardyne Fetch AZA, and commercial RBR BPRzero use the internal pressure of the instrument housing, measured by a barometer, as a reference. In contrast, the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Cabled Self-Calibrating Pressure Recorder (CSCPR) uses a piston-cylinder system to generate a controlled reference pressure near ambient pressure reading. A-0-A, Fetch AZA, and CSCPR instruments are deployed at 1500 m depth on Axial Seamount at the Central Caldera site of the Ocean Observatories Initiative Regional Cabled Array. Additionally, a Fetch AZA is deployed at 400 m depth on the Barkley Canyon, and a BPRzero is deployed at 2200 m depth on the Endeavour segment on the Ocean Networks Canada NEPTUNE cabled observatory.

 At Axial Seamount, the instruments are within 50 m of one another and are adjacent to a conventional pressure gauge in a bottom pressure and tilt (BOTPT) instrument that has been deployed since 2014 and is well aged, with a small drift rate inferred from repeated mobile pressure recorder surveys. Assuming ocean-derived pressure fluctuations and volcanic deformation are spatially coherent across all sensors, each self-calibrating gauge is evaluated by (i) comparing its data with the BOTPT and other gauges to quantify post-calibration residuals, and (ii) assessing internal consistency for the UW A-0-A and CSCPR, which have two pressure gauges inside each unit. Our comparison shows that the self-calibrating pressure gauges generally agree within ±1.0 hPa/year (or 1.0 cm/year of water column height change) over multiple years of deployment. The one exception is the UW A-0-A system. Early in two deployments (2019-2022 and 2024-present), its two gauges are inconsistent with one another and other instruments by up to several hPa, but this bias diminishes within a year, and the records converge. We are evaluating the cause of this transient behavior by analyzing A-0-A calibration sequences. At Barkley Canyon and the Endeavour segment, we evaluate Fetch AZA and BPRzero in the same manner as at Axial Seamount, using several co-sited gauges within 3 km. Both commercial gauges agree with the independent co-sited gauge within ±1.0 hPa/year after applying drift corrections. Comparing data from co-sited sensors enables us to investigate the subtle features of each sensor's performance. All designs demonstrate the potential to reduce instrumental drift to less than 1.0 cm/year. Further evaluation across a wider range of ambient conditions and deployment configurations is warranted.

How to cite: Dobashi, Y., Wilcock, W., Manalang, D., Smith, K., Dentoni, L., Zumberge, M., Sasagawa, G., Cook, M., Sullivan, C., Nooner, S., Chadwick, W., Beeson, J., Heesemann, M., and Schlesinger, A.: Evaluation of Self-Calibrating Pressure Gauges for Seafloor Geodesy: Instrument Comparison at Axial Seamount, Barkley Canyon, and the Endeavour Segment, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15728, 2026.

EGU26-18632 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.2

Microseismicity Detection and Location along Oceanic Transform Faults 

Jianhua Gong

Oceanic transform faults (OTFs) are a major type of plate boundary on Earth. They are segmented into seismic and aseismic sections, with large earthquakes clustering on individual seismic segments. Some OTF segments even produce quasi-periodic large earthquakes, a behavior that is rarely observed on continental faults. Despite their remote locations, OTFs therefore provide a unique natural laboratory for understanding earthquake processes and faulting mechanisms.

Because OTFs are located on the seafloor, their internal structure and the ways in which they accommodate plate motion remain poorly understood. Over the past two decades, several ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) experiments have been conducted along OTFs. Microseismicity recorded by these experiments has revealed important and sometimes surprising properties, including the behavior of aseismic sections and deep-penetrating seismicity that has changed our understanding of OTF rheology. To further resolve fault structure and slip behavior, we need earthquake catalogs with both high-resolution locations and high completeness, so that we can interpret fault geometry and identify transient slip processes.

In recent years, machine-learning phase pickers have been increasingly applied to OBS data, greatly improving the efficiency of earthquake detection. However, major challenges remain in building high-quality catalogs, including uncertainties in phase picking, limitations of location algorithms, and the effects of station spacing and velocity models. In this study, we systematically evaluate key components of the data-processing workflow that control catalog quality, including the performance of different phase pickers, the impact of station coverage and velocity models, and the behavior of different earthquake location methods. We also discuss strategies for building multi-tier catalogs that balance location accuracy and catalog completeness, providing datasets that are suitable for both structural interpretation and studies of fault slip behavior.

How to cite: Gong, J.: Microseismicity Detection and Location along Oceanic Transform Faults, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18632, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18632, 2026.

EGU26-19552 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.2

Enhancement of Apparent Resistivity Sensitivity in Offshore DC Surveys Using Local Seafloor Insulation 

nourhan tartoussi, Sergio Palma Lopes, and Donatienne Leparoux

The global transition toward renewable energy has accelerated the deployment of offshore wind farms, where reliable mapping of the shallow subsurface is crucial for wind-turbine foundation design and installation. Detecting shallow structures and their lateral variability in marine sediments helps reduce geotechnical uncertainties related to subsoil heterogeneity, which strongly influence construction risks, performance, and costs. Among geophysical methods, Direct Current (DC) resistivity surveys are effective for lithological and structural characterization; however, their offshore application remains strongly limited by two main factors: current leakage into the highly conductive seawater column and the resulting reduction in apparent resistivity (ρₐ) sensitivity to seabed targets.

We present a marine acquisition enhancement technique that deploys an electrically insulating sheet directly above the electrode cable placed on the seafloor—a previously patented concept—to restrict vertical current leakage and promote lateral current diffusion along the seabed, thereby increasing electrical interaction with subsurface formations.

A numerical parametric study was conducted using the finite element method (COMSOL Multiphysics), followed by a comparison between insulated marine models and equivalent terrestrial reference models without seawater. The analysis investigated the effects of: (1) seawater depth (Wd) = 1–60 m, (2) seawater-to-subformation resistivity contrast (Cr) = 1.5–100, (3) Wenner electrode spacing (a) = 2–30 m, and (4) insulation width (L) = 1–100 m, symmetrically covering 30 electrodes with 2 m spacing (Fig. 1a).

For Cres = 1.5, conventional marine acquisition without insulation produces large ρₐ errors relative to the terrestrial reference (Fig. 1b), exceeding 20% at small spacings (a = 2–6 m) in shallow water (Wd = 1 m), and remaining between 50% and 60% for most spacings when Wd increases to 28–60 m. The insulating sheet significantly enhances sensitivity: in shallow water (Wd = 1 m), long sheets (L = 60–100 m) as well as intermediate coverage (L = 30 m) reduce ρₐ errors to less than 2% over the entire spacing range (a = 2–30 m), closely reproducing the terrestrial response. Shorter sheets (L ≤ 10 m) still reduce errors to below 10% at intermediate to large spacings.

As water depth increases (Wd = 28–60 m), resistivity recovery becomes partial: even long sheets reduce ρₐ errors to approximately 10% at a = 30 m, compared to more than 50% without insulation. The effectiveness of leakage control also decreases geometrically at larger spacings, where errors tend to stabilize or slightly increase. Furthermore, when Cres increases to 10, relative errors rise for all sheet lengths, reaching approximately 15% at a = 30 m even for L = 60–100 m. This behavior is attributed to stronger lateral current diffusion within the subsurface, which diminishes the influence of insulation on current pathways.

This comparative analysis confirms that seafloor insulation systematically improves ρₐ sensitivity relative to conventional marine acquisition, particularly for larger insulation coverage. The proposed technique provides an effective solution for enhancing shallow structural detection in offshore DC resistivity surveys and offers quantitative guidelines for optimized survey design in offshore wind-turbine foundation site investigations.

How to cite: tartoussi, N., Palma Lopes, S., and Leparoux, D.: Enhancement of Apparent Resistivity Sensitivity in Offshore DC Surveys Using Local Seafloor Insulation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19552, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19552, 2026.

EGU26-19750 | Posters on site | SM3.2

Establishing continuous seismic monitoring by DAS interrogation of submarine telecommunication cables in Europe with the SUBMERSE consortium: tools and use cases 

Frederik Tilmann, Christos Evangelidis, Ioannis Fountoulakis, Han Xiao, Jannes Münchmeyer, Andres Heinloo, Angelo Strollo, Laura Hillmann, Jan Petter Morten, Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Afonso Loureiro, Susana Custodio, and Chris Atherton

In the last years, fibre optic sensing methods, in particular Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), have been experimentally demonstrated to be suitable for monitoring Earth System parameters in submarine cables. The SUBMERSE project (SUBMarinE cables for ReSearch and Exploration) aims to develop blueprints for using telecommunication fibre optic cables as sensors by attaching fibre optic interrogators at selected landing stations, also building a data infrastructure for both temporary storage of full resolution data and permanent archival of reduced data sets.

We analyse data from interrogating the East/West oriented Ionian Submarine System cable from both end points, i.e., Preveza, Greece, and Crotone, Italy, along the same fibre. This cable is located to the north of the Kefalonia Transform Zone. This fault zone marks the western termination of the Hellenic subduction system and is one of the most active seismic zones in Greece, with large damaging earthquakes above M > 6 occurring every few years on average.

In addition to acquiring the full large dataset, decimated channels (~100 in each case) acted as virtual seismic stations offshore, acquired at the NOA datacenter for realtime monitoring purposes. We explored various approaches to automated phase picking and magnitude determination on a reduced data set as well as the full resolution data. We also consider other test sites on the Ellalink cable branches extending from Sines in southern Portugal and from Madeira.

In order to support these and other acquisitions, we have developed a range of tools that can be deployed at future sites. We have enabled real-time streaming of DAS data following the standard Seedlink protocol, which allows straightforward integration into existing workflows at earthquake observatories. We have developed an automated, machine-learning-based algorithm for analysing earthquake waveforms and assembled a benchmark data set of earthquake recordings from DAS cables worldwide with labels of P and S arrival times that can serve to further refine machine learning and other automated analysis approaches. Finally, leveraging the Xdas platform (Trabattoni et al. 2025), we have extended the popular SeisBench platform (Woollam et al, 2022) for machine learning in seismology with the ability to efficiently process dense DAS datasets with algorithms/machine learning models operating across either single or multiple channels.

How to cite: Tilmann, F., Evangelidis, C., Fountoulakis, I., Xiao, H., Münchmeyer, J., Heinloo, A., Strollo, A., Hillmann, L., Morten, J. P., Poggi, V., Parolai, S., Loureiro, A., Custodio, S., and Atherton, C.: Establishing continuous seismic monitoring by DAS interrogation of submarine telecommunication cables in Europe with the SUBMERSE consortium: tools and use cases, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19750, 2026.

EGU26-20259 | Posters on site | SM3.2

Towards permanent seismological monitoring in the Dutch North Sea: Progress and early results 

Islam Fadel, Stephen Akinremi, Janneke I. de Laat, Mechita C. Schmidt-Aursch, Christine Thomas, and Elmer Ruigrok

The North Sea is transitioning from a hydrocarbon province to a wind-turbine and CO2-sequestration hotspot. The latter activity needs assurance that the CO2 is kept within the envisioned subsurface containers. Microseismic monitoring is one of the methods to track the movement of the injected CO2. Additionally, the North Sea experiences both tectonic earthquakes and events that are related to gas production. To sufficiently detect, locate and characterize the different events, onshore sensors do not suffice. The seismic network thus needs to be expanded into the sea. The dynamic marine environment, characterized by shallow water, active sand dynamics, and diverse marine life, makes it unfavourable for standard seismological deployments.

In this work, we report a series of experiments toward deploying a seismometer in the Dutch North Sea. The experiments were conducted at shallow water depth (~2m) near the NIOZ harbour at Texel Island and at ~10m depth in the Wadden Sea. We have chosen to deploy a broadband seismometer, so that the acquired data is not only useful for local monitoring, but also for crustal studies using teleseismic earthquakes and teleseisms. We tested two designs, one with a sea-bottom seismometer and the other with a posthole one. Furthermore, we developed a full prototype for a stand-alone station setup, which has been tested in the Wadden Sea. The sea-bottom seismometer performed well at long periods > 10s, while the posthole version showed a higher signal-to-noise ratio at shorter periods, making it more stable for local seismicity detection and localisation. Due to active sand dynamics, the sea-bottom sensor showed a higher temporal variation with the sensors' masses, requiring mass balancing more frequently than the posthole version. The posthole sensor remained clean, whereas the sea-bottom sensor acted as a reef for all kinds of marine life.

How to cite: Fadel, I., Akinremi, S., de Laat, J. I., Schmidt-Aursch, M. C., Thomas, C., and Ruigrok, E.: Towards permanent seismological monitoring in the Dutch North Sea: Progress and early results, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20259, 2026.

EGU26-21055 | ECS | Orals | SM3.2

The RSBR-Mar Project: Monitoring Offshore Small-Magnitude Earthquakes in Southeastern Brazil with Marine and Land-Based Instrumentation 

Gilberto Leite Neto, André Nascimento, Diogo Coelho, Sergio Fontes, Ítalo Maurício, Alejandro Alfonzo, Carlos Chaves, Marcelo Bianchi, Aderson do Nascimento, George França, and Marcelo Rocha

Developed after the breakup of Gondwana in the Early Cretaceous, the southeastern margin of Brazil comprises a large, economically important hydrocarbon province that includes two of the world’s most prolific offshore sedimentary basins: Santos and Campos. At the same time, this passive margin hosts the country's main offshore seismic zone, characterised by frequent small-magnitude earthquakes and occasional larger events (M ≥ 4.8), occurring on average every 20-25 years, mostly within the extended and submerged continental crust. The larger events include the 1955 Vitória earthquake (mb 6.1), the 1939 Tubarão earthquake (mb 6.0), the 1972 Campos earthquake (M 4.8), the 1990 Porto Alegre earthquake (mR 5.2), and the 2008 São Vicente earthquake (mR 5.2). Due to insufficient instrumentation, limited to a few distant and unevenly distributed coastal stations of the Brazilian Seismographic Network (RSBR), and the low frequency of larger events, both the origin of this seismic activity and the risk it poses to key offshore infrastructure remain poorly understood. To better understand the processes related to the seismic activity in southeastern Brazil, the Brazilian Seismographic Network at the Sea Project (RSBR-Mar) intends to improve coverage by deploying: i - six temporary broadband coastal stations; ii - five Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBSs); and iii - eight Mobile Earthquake Recorder in Marine Areas by Independent Divers (MERMAIDs) between São Paulo and Espírito Santo states. To date, two temporary land stations have been installed in Espírito Santo in June 2025. During a cruise mission between late September and early October 2025, we deployed all five OBSs and eight MERMAIDs. The OBSs will be recovered by September 2026, after one year of data acquisition, at which time the batteries will be replaced and the OBSs redeployed for an additional year. MERMAIDs periodically surface and establish satellite communication, allowing them to send important data back to us, collected during each operational cycle. To date, we have collected 50 waveforms detected by the MERMAIDs. Although MERMAIDs were originally designed to record high-quality P-waveforms for teleseismic tomography, rather than to detect small local events, we will explore this possibility by requesting data stored in their one-year internal storage. If successful, MERMAIDs could improve the localisation of earthquakes recorded in continuous records from land stations and OBSs. First, we plan to automatically detect and locate earthquakes in continuous seismograms from land stations and OBSs using machine-learning-based algorithms (e.g., LOC-FLOW, MALMI). These preliminary locations allow us to identify which data windows to request for each MERMAID. Then, we can relocate the small earthquakes with the acoustic data. Finally, relocation methods may help us to delineate possible seismogenic offshore structures (e.g., HypoDD).

How to cite: Leite Neto, G., Nascimento, A., Coelho, D., Fontes, S., Maurício, Í., Alfonzo, A., Chaves, C., Bianchi, M., do Nascimento, A., França, G., and Rocha, M.: The RSBR-Mar Project: Monitoring Offshore Small-Magnitude Earthquakes in Southeastern Brazil with Marine and Land-Based Instrumentation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21055, 2026.

EGU26-21326 | Posters on site | SM3.2

Seismicity, Repeating Earthquakes,and Tomographic Imaging of the Blanco Transform Fault System, Northeast Pacific 

Dietrich Lange, Yu Ren, and Ingo Grevemeyer

The Blanco transform fault system (BTFS) represents an evolving transform plate boundary in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Its seismic behavior was captured with a dense network of 54 ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS) operated for one year. We created a high-resolution earthquake catalog based on different machine-learning onset pickers. The high-resolution seismicity catalog has 12,708 events outlining the current deformation and stress release. Seismicity indicates seismic and aseismic fault patches or segments, as well as complex along-strike and off-axis deformation, step-overs, and internal faulting within pull-apart basins. Along simple linear fault strands, earthquakes are localized within 2 km of the seafloor expression of the fault. By applying cross-correlation techniques, we identified bursts and repeaters along the BTFS. Most bursts have interevent times of less than five minutes. Repeaters are predominantly found in the west of the BTFS and along the Gorda Depression, and to a smaller extent beneath the eastern Blanco Ridge. Slip rates estimated from repeaters exceed the geological slip rate by approximately 4 times, suggesting small seismic patches that release their slip every ~4 years. Along the BTFS, fault coupling varies between fully locked and creeping. Local earthquake tomography shows elevated vp/vs values exceeding 2, suggesting significant serpentinization from seawater entering the transform faults, the oceanic crust, and the mantle. The study shows how modern machine learning pickers applied to OBS data yield essential insights into the physics of faulting along major plate boundary faults in time and space, including the partitioning of deformation between seismic and aseismic slip.

How to cite: Lange, D., Ren, Y., and Grevemeyer, I.: Seismicity, Repeating Earthquakes,and Tomographic Imaging of the Blanco Transform Fault System, Northeast Pacific, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21326, 2026.

EGU26-21714 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.2

The Central Macquarie Ridge Complex in 3D from Adjoint Waveform Tomography Using Ambient Seismic Noise 

Hrvoje Tkalčić, Zhi Wei, and Thanh-Son Pham and the MRC Team

The Macquarie Ridge Complex (MRC), situated at the the boundary between the Australian, Macquarie, and Pacific plates south of New Zealand, is presently understood to be a primarily transform boundary that originated as a mid-ocean ridge. Although the northern (Puysegur) and southern (Hjort) sections of the MRC are considered to be initiating subduction, the tectonic activity along its central portions (Macquarie and McDougall segments) remains ambiguous.

Macquarie Island is situated on the central segments of the MRC. The region is characterized by exceptionally rugged topography, a feature that can indicate the incipient subduction. Furthermore, the MRC has produced some of the most powerful intra-oceanic strike-slip earthquakes on record. Such significant seismic events in this area pose a potential tsunami hazard. Consequently, despite its isolation, detailed geophysical studies are warranted, which led to our deployment of an integrated network of ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) and seismometers on the island (Tkalčić et al., 2020; 2021). The primary aim of our research is therefore to employ seismological methods to advance the comprehension of the tectonic development of the Australian-Macquarie-Pacific plate boundary.

From 2020 to 2021, we installed a network comprising five land-based stations and 27 ocean bottom seismometers on and around Macquarie Island along the MRC in the Southern Ocean. Utilizing data from the successfully retrieved OBSs and island stations, including the permanent station MCQ, we applied an adjoint waveform tomography technique to surface waves (5-20 s period) extracted from ambient seismic noise. This process, conducted over five iterations, yielded a 3-D model of S-wave velocity for the crust and uppermost mantle. Our starting 3-D model incorporated accurate bathymetry, a water layer, and an optimized 1-D velocity structure. For the seismic wavefield simulations required in the inversion, we employed the spectral element method with Specfem3D_Cartesian (Komatitsch and Tromp, 1999). The resulting S-wave velocity model shows a marked velocity increase at crustal and uppermost mantle depths, between 7 and 12 kilometers. The presence of relatively high S-wave velocities (>3.8 km/s) in the shallow lithosphere aligns with upper mantle rocks being located at unusually shallow depths along the ridge. The extensive distribution of this high-velocity material suggests that the uppermost lithosphere has not undergone significant deformation during the process of obduction.

Reference
Tkalčić, H., Eakin, C., Rawlinson, N., Coffin, M. F., & Stock, J. (2020) Macquarie Ridge [Data set]. AusPass: The Australian Passive Seismic Server. https://doi.org/10.7914/SN/3F_2020

Tkalčić, H., Eakin, C., Coffin, M. F., Rawlinson, N. & Stock, J. (2021) Deploying a submarine seismic observatory in the Furious Fifties, Eos, 102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EO159537 

Komatitsch, D., & Tromp, J. (1999). Introduction to the spectral element method for three-dimensional seismic wave propagation. Geophysical Journal International, 139(3), 806-822. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246x.1999.00967.x

How to cite: Tkalčić, H., Wei, Z., and Pham, T.-S. and the MRC Team: The Central Macquarie Ridge Complex in 3D from Adjoint Waveform Tomography Using Ambient Seismic Noise, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21714, 2026.

EGU26-406 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.3

A Uniformly Processed Strong-Motion Flat-File for Crustal Earthquakes across the Indian Region 

Shikha Sharma, Omkar Omkar, Utsav Mannu, and Sanjay Bora

Strong-motion flat-files form the backbone of ground-motion modelling and seismic hazard assessment, yet India has long lacked a uniformly processed, comprehensive strong-motion database aligned with international standards. The study addresses this critical gap by developing a systematically processed ground-motion flat-file for earthquakes recorded across the Indian subcontinent, particularly for the Himalayan region where seismic hazard remains high and strong-motion data are sparse. The compiled flat-file includes 778 manually processed accelerograms from 195 earthquakes spanning the time period 1986-2018. These events, with moment magnitudes Mw ≥ 2.0 and epicentral distances Repi < 600 km, were recorded at 254 seismic stations. The diversity of source-to-site configurations captured in this dataset enhances its applicability for developing regionally representative GMMs and for examining spatial variations in ground-motion characteristics. The waveform processing followed a consistent step-by-step protocol involving baseline correction, tapering, filtering, windowing and signal-to-noise ratio. The resulting flat-file contains a comprehensive suite of Intensity Measures (IMs) including Peak Ground measures (PGA, PGV, PGD), Spectral Acceleration (SA), Fourier Amplitude Spectrum (FAS), Effective Amplitude Spectrum (EAS), Arias intensity (AI), Cumulative absolute velocity (CAV), Significant Duration (SD), Acceleration Spectrum Intensity (ASI), Velocity Spectrum Intensity (VSI), and Characteristic Intensity (Ic). The reliability of the processed IMs was validated through residual analysis of FAS against an empirical model. As the first uniformly processed strong-motion flat-file for India that includes both horizontal and vertical components, this dataset provides a much-needed foundation for advancing ground-motion modelling and seismic hazard assessment in the region. Overall, this flat-file significantly strengthens the database, evaluates attenuation behaviour, conducting parametric and near-field ground-motion studies, and supporting site-specific seismic hazard assessments across the Indian region.

How to cite: Sharma, S., Omkar, O., Mannu, U., and Bora, S.: A Uniformly Processed Strong-Motion Flat-File for Crustal Earthquakes across the Indian Region, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-406, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-406, 2026.

EGU26-5057 | Posters on site | SM3.3

SeedPSD: a web service for analyzing seismological station noise levels 

Laurent Stehly, Simon Panay, Philippe Bollard, Jonathan Schaeffer, and Helle Pedersen

We introduce SeedPSD, a web service designed to visualize precomputed Power Spectral Densities (PSDs) as PDFs and spectrograms. SeedPSD was initially deployed at the Epos-France EIDA node and has since been deployed across 12 nodes as of 2025.

PSDs are routinely employed to characterize seismological station sites and perform data quality control. Furthermore, seismic noise is now widely used for tomography, crustal monitoring, and investigating ocean-solid Earth coupling. An efficient means of retrieving or plotting spectrograms and PDFs for a given site is valuable for identifying stations that have recorded specific noise events (such as oceanic storms) and, more broadly, for understanding the noise wavefield.

Looking ahead, we are considering proposing jointly with Earthscope a new FDSN standard for a PSD web service. This service would enable users to access PSDs, as well as PSD-derived spectrograms and Probability Density Functions (PDFs), computed from continuous seismic data. This initiative is supported by EIDA, EarthScope, and Geo-INQUIRE.

How to cite: Stehly, L., Panay, S., Bollard, P., Schaeffer, J., and Pedersen, H.: SeedPSD: a web service for analyzing seismological station noise levels, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5057, 2026.

EGU26-6008 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.3

The Open Seismometer Network as a Collaborative P2P Infrastructure that is Scalable, Distributed and Robust 

Carlos García-Saura and Nahúm Méndez-Chazarra

Modern seismic networks have taken upon the crucial task of identifying geological risks to our increasingly dense civilization. Unfortunately, risk prevention and mitigation are still pending issues in many regions, specially in developing countries prone to geological disasters. This lack of proper monitoring infrastructure has been traditionally caused by the elevated costs of seismic equipment, mainly sustained due to commercial interests for its use in the oil&gas industry.

With the advent of the Open Seismometer design with performance comparable to state-of-the-art broadband stations, there is now the possibility to vastly increase seismic monitoring density in previously underrepresented regions. However, there were still unavoidable complexities regarding sensor deployment and infrastructure requirements that in practice limited their use to experts and large organizations.

We propose a new approach for a public Open Seismometer Network that simplifies the steps needed to deploy these optimized stations. The technical complexities of seismic infrastructure can be minimized now there is a base open-source seismometer design, as calibration is similar between units, and improvements are easily transferred back to all stations. Also, by leveraging open-source seismic software and P2P internet communication protocols it is possible to provide a distributed and scalable service without depending on a single server. And additionally, the transition to modern seismic formats such as Mseed3 and the cost of maintaining legacy Mseed2 streams can be simplified and reduced through an efficient data distribution and network design.

Building on open-source seismic solutions such as RingServer, combined with a novel P2P architecture, can finally provide a unified Seedlink service that transparently englobes a network of interconnected and independent servers. This enables field recovery of seismometer data in a reliable way, and at the same time can provide the real-time waveforms to a large body of users.

In today’s big-tech world, where it seems every technological solution is pushed to become a centralized subscription service, we believe it is specially crucial to make a stand and design a truly open seismic research environment. For this, the Open Seismometer Network aims to bridge the gap between novel low-cost seismic instrumentation and effective seismic networks.

How to cite: García-Saura, C. and Méndez-Chazarra, N.: The Open Seismometer Network as a Collaborative P2P Infrastructure that is Scalable, Distributed and Robust, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6008, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6008, 2026.

EGU26-7421 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.3

Upgrading the Ukrainian seismic network: first results of data processing and earthquake monitoring 

Tetiana Amashukeli, Liudmyla Farfuliak, Oleksandr Haniiev, Bogdan Kuplovskyi, Kostiantyn Petrenko, and Dmytro Levon

Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine is currently undertaking efforts to rebuild and modernize the national seismic network, aiming to improve earthquake monitoring and data quality across the country. With the support of international collaborations, including the ORFEUS Integration Grant and the SNEMU project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, several seismic stations have recently been upgraded, and new stations have been installed. Within the framework of the ORFEUS Integration Grant, five seismic stations in the Carpathian region were modernized, and waveform data from these upgraded stations have been integrated into the European Integrated Data Archive (EIDA). In parallel, four new seismic stations were installed as part of the SNEMU project, expanding the national network coverage. Data from these newly deployed stations are openly available through the EarthScope Data Management Center.

As part of this modernization process, we are implementing routine seismic data processing and event analysis using the SeisComP software framework. This work includes waveform quality control, phase picking, event localization, and the development of a preliminary earthquake catalogue based on data from the upgraded stations. We present first results from a pilot dataset processed using recordings from the newly modernized network. Although the resulting catalogue represents an initial stage of processing and includes a limited number of detected events, it demonstrates the operational capability of the upgraded infrastructure and provides a first overview of recent seismicity in Ukraine.

Until recently, seismic data acquisition within the IGPH network was operational, while systematic data processing was limited due to the ongoing situation in the country. Data from upgraded stations were primarily archived without routine analysis. Prior to 2022, earthquake detection at IGPH relied on continuous manual processing using outdated software. As part of the current modernization efforts, we have initiated the transition toward a modern, automated seismic data processing workflow for earthquake detection and cataloging, with SeisComP selected as the core processing framework. In parallel, further expansion of the seismic network through the installation of additional stations is planned for the coming years, although specific timelines remain uncertain.

Subbotin Institute of Geophysics acknowledges funding support from the Data Integration Grant (ORFEUS, Geo-INQUIRE, Grant Agreement 101058518). Instruments and technical support were provided by GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences and GIPP-GEOFON, GaiaCode and Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, Laboratoire Géoazur. The SNEMU project is implemented in partnership with the Science and Technology Center of Ukraine, the U.S. Department of Energy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Michigan State University, and the EarthScope Consortium. T. Amashukeli is supported by the Philipp Schwartz Initiative for Researchers at Risk.

How to cite: Amashukeli, T., Farfuliak, L., Haniiev, O., Kuplovskyi, B., Petrenko, K., and Levon, D.: Upgrading the Ukrainian seismic network: first results of data processing and earthquake monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7421, 2026.

EGU26-12355 | Posters on site | SM3.3

ORFEUS Seismological Data Resources and Community Services for the Euro-Mediterranean Region and Beyond 

Carlo Cauzzi, Wayne Crawford, Sebastiano D'Amico, Peter Danecek, Christos Evangelidis, Christian Haberland, Anastasia Kiratzi, Claudia Mascandola, Valerio Poggi, Zafeiria Roumelioti, Jonathan Schaeffer, Karin Sigloch, Reinoud Sleeman, and Angelo Strollo

ORFEUS (Observatories and Research Facilities for European Seismology, www.orfeus-eu.org; orfeus.readthedocs.io; forum.orfeus-eu.org) is a non-profit foundation that coordinates the collection, archival, and distribution of seismic waveform (meta)data, services and products based on international standards. It serves a broad community of seismological data users, on behalf of the Euro-Mediterranean seismic networks and monitoring agencies (orfeus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/governance.html). ORFEUS core domains comprise: (i) the European Integrated waveform Data Archive (EIDA; orfeus-eu.org/data/eida), providing access to raw seismic waveform data and basic station metadata; (ii) the European Strong-Motion databases (orfeus-eu.org/data/strong), offering automatically/manually processed waveforms, advanced station/site metadata, and associated products ; and iii) the European Mobile Instrument Pools (orfeus-eu.org/data/mobile), facilitating access to seismic instrumentation for temporary deployments. Currently, ORFEUS services distribute waveform data from more than  33,000 stations, including DAS deployments and dense temporary regional experiments (eg., orfeus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/adria_array_main.html), with an emphasis on FAIR principles, open access, and high data quality. ORFEUS services constitute a core component of EPOS (www.epos-eu.org/tcs/seismology) and are seamlessly integrated into the EPOS Data Access Portal (www.ics-c.epos-eu.org). Access to data and products relies on state-of-the-art information and communication technologies, with a strong emphasis on web services (www.orfeus-eu.org/data/eida/webservices; https://esm-db.eu/webservices) enabling programmatic interaction. ORFEUS promotes transparent data policies and licenses and acknowledges the indispensable contribution of data providers. Ongoing activities focus on further development of existing services and on facilitating access to massive and multidisciplinary datasets through collaboration with global and regional initiatives, including the FDSN (www.fdsn.org) and EarthScope (www.earthscope.org),  as well as  through support from EC-funded projects (e.g., www.geo-inquire.eu). ORFEUS implements community-oriented services that include software and travel grants, a sustained training/outreach programme of webinars and workshops (www.orfeus-eu.org/other/workshops), and editorial initiatives supporting best practices in seismological data use and dissemination.

How to cite: Cauzzi, C., Crawford, W., D'Amico, S., Danecek, P., Evangelidis, C., Haberland, C., Kiratzi, A., Mascandola, C., Poggi, V., Roumelioti, Z., Schaeffer, J., Sigloch, K., Sleeman, R., and Strollo, A.: ORFEUS Seismological Data Resources and Community Services for the Euro-Mediterranean Region and Beyond, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12355, 2026.

EGU26-12662 | Posters on site | SM3.3

Güralp Data Centre: Cloud-Based Data Acquisition and State-of-Health Monitoring for Seismic Networks 

Antoaneta Kerkenyakova, James Lindsey, Jamie Calver, Neil Watkiss, Krystian Kitka, Philip Hill, and Federica Restelli

Operational seismic networks are required to deliver reliable, low-latency data and timely earthquake information while managing heterogeneous instrumentation, long-term data archiving, and evolving network and operational demands. Beyond waveform acquisition, network operators require comprehensive visibility of network state-of-health (SOH), latency, and data continuity in order to maintain catalogue completeness and rapid response capabilities.

We present the Güralp Data Centre (GDC), a data acquisition and archiving platform designed to support operational network monitoring by providing centralized access to real-time and archived seismic data alongside integrated SOH analysis tools. GDC aggregates SEEDlink data streams from distributed stations and provides time-based data interrogation, long-term performance metrics, and automated SOH reporting to support both day-to-day operations and long-term network assessment. GDC can be deployed either on Güralp-hosted cloud infrastructure or within a customer-managed cloud environment, allowing users to balance redundancy, scalability, and data control requirements. When accessed through the Güralp Discovery platform, GDC enables automated instrument registration, remote firmware and configuration updates across networks, and traffic-light dashboards for rapid assessment of station health, latency, and outages. We discuss how these capabilities address common challenges in network seismology, including remote station management, near-real-time data availability, and long-term network performance monitoring, and consider lessons learned for improving the reliability and responsiveness of seismic monitoring systems.

How to cite: Kerkenyakova, A., Lindsey, J., Calver, J., Watkiss, N., Kitka, K., Hill, P., and Restelli, F.: Güralp Data Centre: Cloud-Based Data Acquisition and State-of-Health Monitoring for Seismic Networks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12662, 2026.

EGU26-12951 | Posters on site | SM3.3

Testing cloud-optimized formats for future data archival & distribution 

Jonathan Schaeffer, Albane Lecointre, Laura Ermert, Alex Hamilton, and Javier Quinteros

The seismological community is producing ever more datasets, and datasets themselves increase in size and complexity. To support the community in FAIRly archiving this data, seismological data centers must find solutions for the storage and distribution of such large and diverse data. Different aspects related to the FAIRness of these datasets are being considered, among others during the GeoInquire project: appropriate metadata to describe experiments, access control for both data and metadata, and improved data formats for raw data. For the first two topics, two proposals are currently under review by FDSN Working Groups, and a positive decision is expected in the coming months. Access control is particularly important for distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) data, given the sensitivity of the detailed cable location information.

Concerning improved raw data storage, one possible way forward is to combine cloud storage, already in place at several data centers, with asynchronous services that provide direct links to data. Ideally, this will allow users to load specific segments of data from the cloud storage using high-level languages like Python and massively parallelize their processing. In such a setting, analysis-ready, cloud-optimized data might provide advantages over traditional miniSEED archives; previous studies also suggest advantages over the HDF5 formats commonly output by distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) devices and currently used to store the majority of DAS data.

In this contribution, we report on ongoing collaborative work to systematically evaluate cloud-optimized formats on commercial and on-premise (university or institute) cloud storage services to evaluate their usability for archival, distribution and analysis-ready access to large datasets. We tested I/O performance and storage aspects in Zarr, tileDB and Apache Iceberg on AWS and self-hosted S3 buckets. We will report on test results and a first scientific use case that utilizes data on an on-premise cloud. We will also compare challenges and opportunities of these storage solutions for DAS and for large-N nodal data.

The zarr format is already used in the Earth Science community and, combined with rich metadata and the xarray library, turns out to provide very user-friendly access and data slicing for DAS data. The TileDB format provides similarly good access and slicing, but is less well known in the Earth Science community and requires careful engineering of data ingestion and maintenance. With this presentation, we aim to provide updates on the ongoing collaboration, show first usage examples for scientific workflows, and to stimulate discussion about future seismological data archives.

How to cite: Schaeffer, J., Lecointre, A., Ermert, L., Hamilton, A., and Quinteros, J.: Testing cloud-optimized formats for future data archival & distribution, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12951, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12951, 2026.

EGU26-13508 | Posters on site | SM3.3

Solving the Down-hole Installation Problem: A Self-Orienting Seismic System 

Steffen Uhlmann, Marián Jusko, Geoff Bainbridge, Michael Perlin, and Stuart Allardice

Orientation of a seismic sensor is a key item of metadata required for analysis, however this is often inaccurate or missing from stations where the operator cannot directly access the sensor to see its orientation, for example, in boreholes or on the ocean bottom.  Nanometrics has developed a unique, patented system incorporating a miniature MEMS gyrocompass in the seismometer to determine its orientation with an accuracy of +/-0.5 degrees, which is generally not achievable by other methods.  Software in the data recorder automatically queries this orientation and incorporates it in the channel metadata.  Seismometers incorporating this gyrocompass also have self-leveling functionality, so the tilt of the data is known as well as the orientation.  This North-finding capability was initially developed for ocean bottom use and is now being integrated into down-hole systems using the Trillium 120 Borehole or Posthole seismometer with the Centaur data recorder.

This self-orienting seismic system requires only a single software command to find its orientation and automatically incorporate it in the metadata.  It removes any concern about the accuracy of the orientation, since the gyrocompass measures the direction of the Earth’s axis of rotation, which is the definition of geographic North.  This is an improvement over a magnetic compass, which measures magnetic, not geographic, North and may not accurately measure magnetic North due to disturbances from nearby magnetic material, such as the borehole casing.  Furthermore, this North-finding capability eliminates the complex operations currently used to control the orientation of borehole sensors, such as installing a “bishop’s hat” fixture with expensive equipment or cross-correlating seismic data between the borehole sensor and a surface sensor.  The orientation determined by the gyrocompass will automatically accompany the seismic data to the data center, so it will always be available to the user.  Optionally, a rotation transform can be applied in the Centaur data recorder, to supply data that is already aligned to North.

How to cite: Uhlmann, S., Jusko, M., Bainbridge, G., Perlin, M., and Allardice, S.: Solving the Down-hole Installation Problem: A Self-Orienting Seismic System, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13508, 2026.

EGU26-13809 | Posters on site | SM3.3

Multidisciplinary Stations: A Next Generation Tool Kit for Geoscience 

Stuart Allardice, Marian Jusko, and Michael Perlin

As cross-disciplinary science becomes increasingly critical to understanding geophysical phenomena, a multidisciplinary approach is essential for integrating instrumentation and ensuring reliable and efficient data acquisition for successful scientific outcomes.

The scientific community requires adaptable solutions for the co-location of diverse sensor types. Deploying such instruments in remote, volatile environments while ensuring reliable, continuous data acquisition presents additional challenges. The complexity and cost associated with deploying, operating and maintaining remote stations are significantly increased if using multiple independent sensors, each with dedicated acquisition infrastructure. Recent efforts, such as the European Plate Observing System, aim to address this by integrating multidisciplinary geophysical applications into unified and efficient deployments.

Modern seismic data loggers, such as the Nanometrics Centaur Gen5, support integration of a wide range of sensing elements, while maintaining ultra-low power consumption, precise timing, local data storage and reliable real-time data transmission. Enhanced capabilities regarding customization and edge computing allow the implementation of functionality tailored to meet specific monitoring objectives for unique station configurations.

A case study is presented for a multidisciplinary geophysical monitoring station that leverages these capabilities to enable comprehensive, reliable and efficient data collection. The multidisciplinary station configuration and end-to-end data pipeline, from remote sensing to science doorstep in the data center, are discussed.

How to cite: Allardice, S., Jusko, M., and Perlin, M.: Multidisciplinary Stations: A Next Generation Tool Kit for Geoscience, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13809, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13809, 2026.

EGU26-14367 | Posters on site | SM3.3

Processing Strong and Weak Motion Data from a Combined Instrument to Verify Calibration and Maximize Dynamic Range 

Nicola Catalano, Marián Jusko, Geoff Bainbridge, Michael Perlin, Ted Somerville, and Stuart Allardice

Co-locating weak-motion seismometers with strong-motion accelerometers enables monitoring of seismicity at all scales, from the largest earthquakes to background-level microtremors.  However, a combined analysis depends on having comparable data from both instruments, installed at the same depth, accurately aligned in the same package, and precisely calibrated so they can produce equivalent data, i.e. the same ground motion velocity or acceleration signals after response correction.

 

We present data from recent earthquake sequences in the Hualien region of Taiwan, captured by dual downhole sensors (Cascadia Slim Posthole) in the Downhole Seismic Observation Network of Taiwan CWA.  In this example the seismometer and accelerometer signals match within 0.5% on average after response correction, allowing for the synthesis of a combined data stream with an unprecedented dynamic range of 220 dB.  Algorithms for optimal combination of the data are discussed and demonstrated.

This processing also enables a new quality assurance metric for calibration accuracy.  Previously, it has only been possible to verify this by running a calibration test procedure, typically no more often than once a year, since the test process is laborious and interrupts normal data collection.  However, in analyzing data from a dual instrument, the response-corrected amplitude ratio of the strong and weak-motion data streams can be continuously measured and reported as a state-of-health metric, to verify that the two instruments are operating correctly and measuring ground motion with the same accuracy in terms of sensitivity and frequency response.

How to cite: Catalano, N., Jusko, M., Bainbridge, G., Perlin, M., Somerville, T., and Allardice, S.: Processing Strong and Weak Motion Data from a Combined Instrument to Verify Calibration and Maximize Dynamic Range, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14367, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14367, 2026.

EGU26-16737 | Posters on site | SM3.3

Station Explorer: the new interactive EIDA web tool for seismic data discovery  

Heesun Joo, Peter L. Evans, Andres Heinloo, Javier Quinteros, and Angelo Strollo

The European Integrated Data Archive (EIDA) is a federation of 13 data centres dedicated to securely archiving seismic waveform data and providing seamless access to over 30,000 stations. For the past decade, EIDA’s holdings have been accessed through the WebDC3 interface. We are now replacing WebDC3 with a modern web application, "Station Explorer*," to address evolving requirements for interactive data discovery and secure, federated access.

Station Explorer provides unified access to data across all 13 federated data centres. Built with JavaScript and the Vue 3 framework, the interface features a modular architecture supporting both station-based and event-based workflows. Users can filter stations by time, network, region or distance/azimuth, while events can be refined by parameters such as time, region, magnitude, and depth. Data quality metrics from WFCatalog are visualised through interactive charts.

Authentication and Authorization Infrastructure (AAI) integration now supports both OAuth2 authentication flows and token-file uploads, enabling secure access to restricted data. To foster correct attribution practices, the interface now explicitly displays DOI information for networks and presents citation requirements within the download workflow. We also optimised performance through worker pools and parallel fetching to ensure a responsive user experience, implementing an 8-worker pool for details panel metrics and Web Workers for large inventory processing.

In this presentation, we will demonstrate the current implementation and new authentication workflows via a live demo including also power spectral density (PSD) visualization in the details view which is planned for integration as soon as rolled out throughout all EIDA nodes.

*https://dx.doi.org/10.5880/gfz.gfyb.2025.002

How to cite: Joo, H., L. Evans, P., Heinloo, A., Quinteros, J., and Strollo, A.: Station Explorer: the new interactive EIDA web tool for seismic data discovery , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16737, 2026.

EGU26-17285 | Posters on site | SM3.3

Earthquake Early Warning System for the Marmara Region 

Nurcan Meral Özel, Semih Ergintav, Fatih Turhan, Ali Özgün Konca, Doğan Aksarı, and Tuğçe Ergün

Earthquake early warning has been a longstanding effort of the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), beginning in 1998 with the establishment of the Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System. Building on this experience and benefiting from advances in seismic instrumentation and data transmission technologies, KOERI has recently developed a new-generation early warning system
(EEWS) that is currently operational across Türkiye; however, given  the high seismic hazard associated with the North Anatolian Fault and its offshore segments in the Sea of Marmara, the present current station density, spatial coverage, and communication latency characteristics, the generation of reliable and timely public warning messages is presently feasible primarily in the Marmara region.
Earthquake detection, location, and magnitude estimation are performed using the Virtual Seismologist algorithm developed within the TRANSFORM project (funded by the European Union under project number 101188365; Cua, 2005; Cua and Heaton, 2007; Cua et al., 2009). Alerts are issued once seismic signals are recorded at a minimum of four stations. System performance is evaluated using the 2 October 2025 Mw 5.0 Marmara Sea earthquake as a case study. The first early warning alert was issued 8.4 s after the earthquake origin time, providing more than 20 s of warning for the Anatolian side of Istanbul prior to the onset of strong ground shaking. The installation of real-time seafloor seismic stations in the Sea of Marmara is therefore expected to substantially reduce detection times and further enhance the overall effectiveness of the Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) in the Marmara Region. These results demonstrate the capability of the KOERI-EEWS to deliver timely alerts and highlight its potential to enhance seismic risk mitigation and the protection of critical infrastructure.

How to cite: Meral Özel, N., Ergintav, S., Turhan, F., Konca, A. Ö., Aksarı, D., and Ergün, T.: Earthquake Early Warning System for the Marmara Region, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17285, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17285, 2026.

EGU26-18191 | Posters on site | SM3.3

Real-time classification of Irish seismic events using supervised machine learning 

Patrick Smith, James Grannell, Martin Moelhoff, and Chris Bean

Seismic monitoring in areas of low natural seismicity is often complicated by anthropogenic signals which can have waveform characteristics similar to small magnitude earthquakes. In Ireland, quarry blasts make up the majority of signals detected by the Irish National Seismic Network (INSN), increasing analyst workload and making it difficult to produce reliable seismic catalogues.

Here we present an automated classification workflow for seismic events based on supervised machine learning methods that is suitable for operational use in discriminating between earthquakes, quarry blasts, and false detections. Instead of relying solely on waveform data, the classifier uses as input a combination of features derived from seismic waveforms plus event information, such as source parameters (e.g. depth, origin time, magnitude, number of phases) and location (e g. distance to the nearest known quarry).

Gradient-boosting classifiers, including XGBoost and CatBoost, were trained on a catalogue of more than 7,000 labelled events. Synthetic oversampling and hyperparameter optimisation were used to enhance robustness and reduce overfitting, and combining probabilistic outputs from multiple models was also explored. Our results show that by incorporating event information along with waveform features the accuracy and reliability of the classification was improved, with the final model achieving accuracies of more than 99% for quarry blasts and 95% for earthquakes, based on testing with unseen event data.

The trained classification tool has now been integrated into the INSN processing environment (SeisComP), and is currently being used to provide classification information for real-time alerts of automatically triggered events, as well as assisting in manual analysis. Although this work relies on the use of network-specific information, it demonstrates a transferable approach that can be used to integrate data-driven classifiers into operational geophysical monitoring systems. It also highlights the effectiveness of modern machine-learning techniques, supports the development of next-generation seismic data services and provides a practical example of how such tools can augment and complement traditional seismic monitoring workflows.

How to cite: Smith, P., Grannell, J., Moelhoff, M., and Bean, C.: Real-time classification of Irish seismic events using supervised machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18191, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18191, 2026.

EGU26-211 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Automatic detection and classification of Nanoseismicity in Distributed Acoustic Sensing data 

Dominic Seager, Jessica Johnson, Lidong Bie, Beatriz De La Iglesia, and Ben Milner

The detection of nanoseismicity (very tiny earthquakes sometimes associated with small cracks in rock, also called acoustic emissions) is an important area of research aiding in the understanding of geophysical processes, hazard detection, material failure and human-driven nanoseismicity. The high frequency and attenuation of nanoseismicity require high-frequency monitoring within metres of the source to capture the event. This has made them difficult to monitor in conditions outside of small-scale lab experiments, in which failure is intentionally induced. The development of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) as a new tool for seismic monitoring, however, has increased the feasibility of investigating such signals in the field due to its high temporal and spatial resolution. Manual picking of these events, while possible, is impractical for long-term deployments and for time-critical applications such as stability monitoring, which limits the utility of the technology. Automation of the detection of nanoseismic events within such data is therefore essential for the long-term processing of DAS data and real-time processing of data for use in stability monitoring.  

We have developed a pipeline for the automated extraction of nanoseismic events from DAS data, using a new, simple ratio technique called Spatial Short-Term Average (SSTA). The pipeline takes an input of DAS data and generates a series of windows within the data containing information about high amplitude signals relating to nanoseismicity.  

Using the automatically detected events, we labelled the windows to train a series of machine learning models to classify the different signals. Once trained, we evaluated the performance of the various models to select the most effective method for processing the collected data. The best performing models will then be tested at scale with the resulting classified dataset being plotted spatially along the length of the deployment to identify patterns of activity across space and time. 

How to cite: Seager, D., Johnson, J., Bie, L., De La Iglesia, B., and Milner, B.: Automatic detection and classification of Nanoseismicity in Distributed Acoustic Sensing data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-211, 2026.

EGU26-893 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Optical Interferometry-based seafloor cable Measurements for Rupture Imaging and Tsunami Signal Analysis in the Southwest Pacific 

Amin A. Naeini, Bill Fry, Giuseppe Marra, Max Tamussino, Johan Grand, Jennifer D. Eccles, Kasper van Wijk, Dean Veverka, and Ratnesh Pandit

Optical interferometry on submarine fiber-optic telecommunication cables offers a transformative opportunity for offshore geohazard monitoring by providing continuous measurements of seafloor perturbation at useful intervals over trans-oceanic distances (Marra et al., 2022). We analyze a southwest Pacific subset of data from a section of the Southern Cross NEXT cable connecting Auckland (New Zealand) to Alexandria (Australia). Using only cable-based measurements, we image the seismic rupture kinematics of the 17 December 2024 Mw 7.3 Vanuatu earthquake, the largest seismic event recorded on this cable since its installation.

 

We analyze measurements of a section of cable more than 1,000 km in length and comprising 18 inter-repeater spans including the section that runs roughly parallel to the Vanuatu subduction zone and the adjoining section extending southward toward New Zealand. The earthquake produces clear and coherent arrivals in the optical frequency deviation recorded across multiple spans, with well-defined signatures visible in both time series and spectrograms. We first extract earthquake-related strain signals in the 0.1-0.3 Hz frequency band and apply the Multiple Signal Classification (MUSIC) back-projection technique to recover the source-time evolution of the rupture. The inferred rupture is predominantly bilateral and consistent with the USGS finite-fault solution, confirming that interferometric submarine cables can function as effective regional seismic arrays for rapid characterization of offshore earthquakes.

 

These results further demonstrate the capability of submarine fiber-optic cables to image earthquake rupture processes using high-frequency strain signals, providing valuable monitoring coverage, especially in instrumentally sparse regions such as the southwest Pacific. By resolving rupture kinematics directly, cable-based observations offer a pathway toward improved tsunami early-warning strategies that rely less on empirical magnitude–scaling relations, which are uncertain for large earthquakes. Planned upgrades of the interrogating laser will allow the performance of this approach to be assessed at lower frequencies, where cable-based observations may provide direct constraints on tsunami propagation and other long-period geophysical processes.

How to cite: A. Naeini, A., Fry, B., Marra, G., Tamussino, M., Grand, J., D. Eccles, J., van Wijk, K., Veverka, D., and Pandit, R.: Optical Interferometry-based seafloor cable Measurements for Rupture Imaging and Tsunami Signal Analysis in the Southwest Pacific, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-893, 2026.

EGU26-1594 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Physics-based earthquake early warning using distributed acoustic sensing 

Itzhak Lior and Shahar Ben Zeev

We present a physics-based point source earthquake early warning system using distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) data. All core modules of the system are based on physical principles of wave propagation, and models that describe the earthquake source and far-field ground motion. The detection-location algorithm is based on time-domain delay-and-sum beamforming, and the magnitude estimation and ground motion prediction are performed using analytical equations based on the Brune omega squared model. We demonstrate the performance of the system in terms of magnitude estimation and ground motion prediction, and in terms of real-time computational feasibility using local 3.1 ≤ M ≤ 3.6 earthquakes. This DAS early warning system allows for fast deployment, circumventing some calibration phases that require gathering local DAS earthquake data before the system becomes operational.

How to cite: Lior, I. and Ben Zeev, S.: Physics-based earthquake early warning using distributed acoustic sensing, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1594, 2026.

EGU26-3915 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Quasi-static waveform inversion from DAS observations 

Le Tang, Etienne Bertrand, Eléonore Stutzmann, Luis Fabian Bonilla Hidalgo, Shoaib Ayjaz Mohammed, Céline Gélis, Sebastien Hok, Maximilien Lehujeur, Donatienne Leparoux, Gautier Gugole, and Olivier Durand

As a vehicle approaches the fiber-optic cable, the distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) records a broadband strain rate, which corresponds to propagating seismic waves at high frequencies (>1Hz) and to quasi-static strain fields at low frequencies (<1Hz). However, characterizing the subsurface media through quasi-static deformations remains challenging. Here, we propose a new method for imaging shallow urban subsurface structures using quasi-static strain waveforms, measured with fiber-optic cables. This technique utilizes the quasi-static waveform of a single DAS channel to generate a local 1D velocity model, thereby enabling high-resolution imaging of the underground using thousands of densely packed channels. We employed the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inversion strategy to investigate the depth range of inversion using car-induced quasi-static waveforms. The synthetic data demonstrates that the quasi-static strain field generated by a standard small car moving over the ground enables detailed imaging of structures at depths from 0 to 10 meters. Additionally, we conducted field experiments to measure the 2D shear-wave velocity model along a highway using quasi-static strain waveforms generated by a four-wheeled small car. The velocity structure we obtained is closely aligned with that derived from the classical surface-wave phase-velocity inversion. This consistency indicates that the inversion depth range is comparable to the simulation results, which confirms the applicability of this method to real data. In the future, we anticipate using the city's extensive fiber-optic communication network to record quasi-static deformations induced by various types of vehicles, thereby enabling imaging of the urban subsurface at a citywide scale. This will provide valuable insights for the design of urban underground infrastructure and for assessing urban hazards and risks.

How to cite: Tang, L., Bertrand, E., Stutzmann, E., Bonilla Hidalgo, L. F., Mohammed, S. A., Gélis, C., Hok, S., Lehujeur, M., Leparoux, D., Gugole, G., and Durand, O.: Quasi-static waveform inversion from DAS observations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3915, 2026.

EGU26-4163 | Orals | SM3.4

Seismic data telemetry system and precise hypocenter location for distributed acoustic sensing observation using seafloor cable off Sanriku, Japan 

Masanao Shinohara, Shun Fukushima, Kenji Uehira, Youichi Asano, Shinichi S. Tanaka, and Hironori Otsuka

A seismic observation using Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) using seafloor cable can provide spatially high-density data for a long distance in marine areas. A seafloor seismic and tsunami observation system using an optical fiber cable off Sanriku, northeastern Japan was deployed in 1996. Short-term DAS measurements were sporadically repeated since February 2019 using spare fibers of the Sanriku system (Shinohara et al., 2022). A total measurement length is approximately 100 km.  It has been concluded that measurement with a sampling frequency of 100 Hz, a ping rate of 500 Hz, gauge length of 100 m, and a spatial interval of 10 m is adequate for earthquake and tsunami observation.  From March 2025, we started a continuous DAS observation to observe seismic activity. When the continuous DAS observation was commenced, we developed quasi real time data transmission system through the internet. Because a DAS measurement generates a huge mount of data per unit time and capacity of internet is limited, decimation for spatial direction is adopted. In addition, data format is converted from HDF5 to conventional seismic data exchange format in Japan (win format). An interrogator generates a HDF5 file every 30 seconds. After the file generation, the telemetry system reads the HDF5 file, and decimates data for spatial domain. Then, the data format is changed to the win format and the data are sent to the internet. In other words, data transmission is delayed for a slightly greater than 30 seconds. Data with the win format can be applied to various seismic data processing which has been developed before. To locate a hypocenter using DAS data, seismic phases in DAS data must be identified. To evaluate performance of hypocenter location using DAS records, arrival times of P- and S-waves were picked up on the computer display for local earthquakes. Every 100 channel records on DAS data and data from surrounding ordinary seismic stations were used. Location program with absolute travel times and one-dimensional P-wave velocity structure was applied. Results of location of earthquakes were evaluated by mainly using location errors. Errors of the location with DAS data were smaller than those of the location without the DAS data. Increase of arrival data for DAS records seems to be efficient to improve a resolution. However, picking up signals for all channels (seismic station) manually are costly due to a large number of channels. To expand the location method, an improved automatic pick-up program using evaluation function from conventional seismic network data by seismometers for DAS data (Horiuchi et al., 2025) was applied to the DAS data obtained by the Sanriku system. As a result, arrivals time of P, S and converted PS waves can be precisely identified with high resolution. We have a plan to locate earthquakes using all DAS channels (seismic stations)  and surrounding ordinary marine and land seismic stations.

How to cite: Shinohara, M., Fukushima, S., Uehira, K., Asano, Y., Tanaka, S. S., and Otsuka, H.: Seismic data telemetry system and precise hypocenter location for distributed acoustic sensing observation using seafloor cable off Sanriku, Japan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4163, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4163, 2026.

EGU26-4254 | Orals | SM3.4

Using a hybrid seismic and Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) network to study microseismicity in high spatiotemporal resolution offshore of Kefalonia Island, Greece  

Rebecca M. Harrington, Gian Maria Bocchini, Emanuele Bozzi, Marco P. Roth, Sonja Gaviano, Giulio Pascucci, Francesco Grigoli, Ettore Biondi, and Efthimios Sokos

Combining traditional seismic networks with Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) to record ground-motion on telecommunications cables provides new opportunities to study small earthquakes with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. Here we present a detailed study of an earthquake sequence offshore northwest of Kefalonia island, Greece that began in March 2024 and returned to background levels by November–December. The sequence was recorded by both a permanent seismic network for its duration and by DAS on a fiber-optic telecommunications cable between 1 - 15 August 2024.  The two-week DAS dataset provides continuous strain measurements along ~15 km of optical fiber between northern Kefalonia and Ithaki during a period that captured elevated seismic activity. Combining seismic station and DAS data reveals distinct physical features of the sequence that are not observable with seismic stations alone, including details of mainshock-aftershock clustering and well-resolved source spectra at frequencies of up to ~50 Hz for M < 3 events. The signal-to-noise-ratio > 3 at frequencies of up to 50 Hz observed on DAS waveforms for a representative group of events suggests consistency with typical earthquake stress-drop values that range from 1-10 MPa. It further suggests that DAS data may be used to augment detailed studies of microearthquake source parameters.

We apply semblance-based detection to DAS waveforms and manually inspect 5,734 earthquakes that occurred within ~50 km of the fiber to build an initial earthquake catalog. We then combine DAS and seismic-station data to locate 284 events with high signal-to-noise ratios and compute their local magnitudes with seismic station data to create a detailed subset of the initial catalog. We apply waveform cross-correlation to offshore DAS data for events in the detailed catalog to associate unlocated detections with template events and estimate relative magnitudes from amplitude ratios and further enhance the detailed catalog. This approach adds an additional 2,496 earthquakes (2,780 events in total) with assigned locations and magnitudes and leads to an enhanced catalog with completeness magnitude Mc = -0.5. Most earthquakes (2,718 of 2780) cluster within a ~5 km radius approximately 10 km offshore of northwestern Kefalonia and exhibit local rates exceeding 100 events per hour.

Our enhanced catalog provides a detailed spatiotemporal record of seismicity in a region with limited station coverage and demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating DAS with seismic networks for earthquake monitoring of active seismic sequences. Furthermore, it resolves details of mainshock–aftershock clustering that would have otherwise likely have been erroneously classified as swarm-like with standard monitoring, highlighting how observational resolution influences the interpretation of the physics driving earthquake sequences.

How to cite: Harrington, R. M., Bocchini, G. M., Bozzi, E., Roth, M. P., Gaviano, S., Pascucci, G., Grigoli, F., Biondi, E., and Sokos, E.: Using a hybrid seismic and Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) network to study microseismicity in high spatiotemporal resolution offshore of Kefalonia Island, Greece , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4254, 2026.

The first commercially available fibre-optic Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) system, Cobolt, was released in 2004, with early uptake driven by applications in perimeter security, pipeline monitoring, and upstream oil and gas operations. Although these deployments demonstrated the disruptive potential of DAS, it is only within the past five years that the geoscience community has widely embraced the technology, exploiting its ability to deliver continuous, high-fidelity measurements with exceptional spatial and temporal resolution.

Historically, commercially available DAS systems were optimised for industrial monitoring rather than scientific metrology. As a result, key requirements of geoscience applications—such as quantitative accuracy, extreme sensitivity, extended range, and robustness in challenging environments—were not primary design drivers. This situation is now changing rapidly as geoscience applications mature and expand. This contribution reviews the principal performance characteristics that define the suitability of modern DAS systems for geoscience research and examines how recent technological developments are addressing these needs.

Five performance parameters are of particular importance. First, the transition from amplitude-based, qualitative DAS to phase-based, quantitative systems has enabled true strain-rate and strain measurements suitable for metrological applications. Second, instrument sensitivity has improved by several orders of magnitude, with contemporary systems achieving pico-strain-level detection along standard telecom fibre. Third, measurement range—ultimately limited by available backscattered photons in pulsed DAS—has been extended beyond 150 km through the adoption of spread-spectrum interrogation techniques. Fourth, spatial resolution continues to improve, with gauge lengths of ≤1 m and sampling intervals of ≤0.5 m now routinely achievable, and further reductions anticipated. Finally, dynamic range remains a critical consideration for high-amplitude signals such as earthquakes; however, reductions in gauge length provide a clear pathway to mitigating cycle-skipping limitations, supporting the future use of DAS in Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems.

Alongside raw performance, the ability to quantify and compare DAS system capabilities has become increasingly important. Industry-led efforts have resulted in well-defined test methodologies and performance metrics, providing a common framework for objective evaluation of DAS instruments used in scientific studies.

Practical deployment considerations are also shaping system design. Reduced size, weight, and power (SWaP) enable operation in remote and hostile environments, while improved reliability, passive cooling, and environmental sealing facilitate long-term field installations. These advances are particularly relevant to emerging marine and subsea applications, where low-power, marinised DAS systems are required for seabed deployment.

Finally, the growing complexity of DAS instrumentation places increasing emphasis on software. Automated configuration, intuitive user interfaces, and integrated edge-processing capabilities are becoming essential to ensure that non-specialist users can reliably extract high-quality scientific data.

Together, these developments signal a transition in DAS from an industrial monitoring tool to a mature geoscience instrument, with continued innovation expected to further expand its role across solid-Earth, cryospheric, and marine research over the coming decade.

How to cite: Hill, D.: DAS design features critical to geoscience applications, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4295, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4295, 2026.

EGU26-4413 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

Coherent Source Subsampling of Seismic Noise for Distributed Acoustic Sensing in the Swiss Alps 

Sanket Bajad, Daniel Bowden, Pawan Bharadwaj, Elliot James Fern, Andreas Fichtner, and Pascal Edme

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) provides dense measurements of seismic noise along fiber-optic cables and offers new opportunities for subsurface characterization. In environments where controlled sources are unavailable, conventional noise interferometry workflows for DAS construct virtual shot gathers via cross-correlation and average them over long time windows to obtain coherent surface waves for dispersion analysis and subsequent shear-wave velocity (Vs) inversion. In noise-based interferometric imaging, the distribution of noise sources controls the quality of the retrieved interstation response. In practice, seismic sources are highly anisotropic and intermittent, and so simply averaging all available time windows produces interferometric responses that are difficult to interpret and lead to unstable dispersion curves and biased Vs estimates. We present a data-driven coherent source subsampling (CSS) framework that automatically identifies and selects the time windows of seismic noise that contribute constructively to the physically interpretable interstation response.

We demonstrate the method using DAS data acquired along 30 km of pre-existing telecommunication fiber deployed by the Swiss Federal Railways (SBB) in a major alpine valley floor, recorded with a Sintela interrogator at 3 m channel spacing with 6 m gauge length. Our objective is to recover stable Rayleigh-wave dispersion curves and a shallow Vs structure in the upper 50 m. The fiber runs along the railway track in surface cable ducts, providing a realistic test bed with complex ambient noise, including car traffic, factories, quarry blasts, in addition to the train-generated signals. Subsampling strategies based on prior knowledge of the sources, such as train schedules or velocity-based filtering, can partly mitigate this problem. However, these strategies are tedious, strongly location-dependent along the fiber, and do not guarantee that the retained windows contribute coherently to the interstation response of the segment under investigation.

Here, we use a symmetric variational autoencoder (SymVAE) to perform coherent source subsampling. Trained on virtual shot gathers from multiple time windows, the SymVAE groups windows according to the similarity of their correlation wavefields and enables the selection of those windows that consistently exhibit symmetric surface-wave contributions on both the causal and acausal sides. Averaging only these subsampled windows yields interstation responses that are substantially denoised and symmetric. We interpret these cleaner and symmetric cross-correlations as being associated with the stationary-phase contributions for the fiber segment under investigation. The same framework also identifies fiber segments that lack coherent, dispersive Rayleigh waves, indicating where robust subsurface imaging is not feasible.

Applying CSS to the SBB DAS data produces stable Rayleigh-wave dispersion curves along the cable, which we invert for two-dimensional Vs profiles. Although demonstrated here on railway-generated noise, the proposed CSS framework can be extended to any uncontrolled settings, such as road-traffic-dominated areas, where source variability and non-uniformity may be even more severe.

  • 1Centre for Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India
  • 2Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
  • 3 SBB CFF FFS

 

How to cite: Bajad, S., Bowden, D., Bharadwaj, P., Fern, E. J., Fichtner, A., and Edme, P.: Coherent Source Subsampling of Seismic Noise for Distributed Acoustic Sensing in the Swiss Alps, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4413, 2026.

EGU26-4603 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

What Controls Variability in DAS Earthquake Observations? Implications for Ground-Motion Models 

Chen-Ray Lin, Sebastian von Specht, and Fabrice Cotton

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) provides dense, meter-scale ground-motion measurements along fiber-optic cables. However, developing ground-motion models (GMMs) from DAS data is challenging because observations are controlled by DAS-specific factors such as cable coupling, orientation, and channel correlation. In this study, we present the first regional, partially non-ergodic DAS-based GMM that explicitly identifies and quantifies cable-related contributions to ground-motion variability. We analyze strain-rate data from a 400-channel DAS array at the Milun campus in Hualien City, Taiwan, compiling peak strain rates and Fourier amplitudes (0.1–10 Hz) from 77 regional earthquakes (3<M<7, 45<R<170 km). Building on classical seismometer-based GMMs, we extend the variability framework to account for (1) cable coupling influenced by installation and environment types, (2) cable orientation, and (3) channel correlation inherent to DAS measurement principles and array geometry. Channel correlation is modeled using Matérn kernels parameterized by along-fiber and spatial proximity distances. The resulting DAS-based GMM shows magnitude-distance scaling comparable to classical models, while decomposing variability into physically interpretable components. Cable coupling emerges as a dominant broadband source of within-event variability, whereas orientation effects capture repeatable, frequency-dependent earthquake source radiation patterns. Modeling channel correlation significantly reduces channel-related standard deviations, demonstrating that treating DAS channels as independent observations biases uncertainty estimates. Overall, our results show that DAS-derived ground motions require a fundamentally different variability framework than that of classical GMMs, highlighting the importance of deployment metadata and correlation modeling. This approach provides a statistical and physical foundation for next-generation seismic hazard assessments using dense fiber-optic sensing.

How to cite: Lin, C.-R., von Specht, S., and Cotton, F.: What Controls Variability in DAS Earthquake Observations? Implications for Ground-Motion Models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4603, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4603, 2026.

Monitoring fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) vocalizations is of significant scientific importance and practical value for marine ecology, hydroacoustics, and geophysics. Conventional monitoring approaches, such as hydrophone arrays, ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS), and satellite tagging, are limited by sparse spatial coverage, potential biological disturbance, and high costs. Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) is an emerging technology that utilizes submarine optical cables as dense acoustic arrays, providing opportunities for large-scale, high-resolution monitoring of whale vocalizations. Here, we reveal the wavefield features of fin whale vocalizations by integrating DAS observational data combined with numerical simulations. Three distinct features—Insensitive response segment (IRS), high-frequency component loss, and acoustic notch—were identified in the observed wavefield. DAS response analysis via ray-acoustic modeling indicates that the length of the IRS is positively correlated with the vertical source-to-cable distance, while the gauge length is responsible for the high-frequency loss in Type-B calls. Furthermore, wavefield simulations using the spectral-element method (SEM) demonstrate that the acoustic notches represent transitions between transmission zones of waterborne multipath waves entering the seafloor, exhibiting high sensitivity to the seafloor P-wave velocity, water depth, and topography. These findings not only enhance our understanding of the DAS-observed wavefields, but also highlight the potential of utilizing DAS and acoustic notches for ocean environmental parameter estimation.

How to cite: Wang, Q.: Revealing the Wavefield Features of Fin Whale Vocalizations Observed by Distributed Acoustic Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4625, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4625, 2026.

This study aims to develop a system for the identification of vessels, seismic events, and volcanic activity through analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics of wavefields recorded by distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) using a submarine fiber-optic cable. DAS provides unprecedented spatial coverage and resolution, making it highly suitable for monitoring dense wavefield variations and anthropogenic activities, whereas traditional seismometers remain indispensable for quantitative seismic analysis and low-frequency observations. In this study, continuous DAS records acquired from a submarine fiber-optic cable located in the northeastern offshore region of Taiwan near Guishan Island, an active volcano. This region experiences frequent seismic activity due to the northwestward subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate. In addition, the passage of the Kuroshio Current, a warm ocean current, brings abundant fish resources, resulting in frequent activities of fishing vessels and whale-watching boats. Event detection is first carried out using the recursive short-time-average/long-time-average (STA/LTA) method which uses two time windows with different durations and computes the average signal amplitude within each window. When a signal arrives, the average amplitude within a short time window changes rapidly, thereby increasing the ratio of the short-time average to the long-time average. An event is detected when this ratio exceeds a predefined threshold and manual secondary inspected. However, low signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) can significantly reduce the sensitivity of STA/LTA-based detection, leading to missed events. To overcome this problem, signal processing adjustments were applied to enhance detection performance. To validate the detection performance, the detected ship-related events were compared with records from the Automatic Identification System (AIS), while earthquake events identified from the DAS data were compared with the earthquake catalog of Taiwan Seismological and Geophysical Data Management System (GDMS). Subsequently, a regression analysis of catalog magnitudes against hypocentral distance and maximum DAS-recorded amplitude was applied to determine the minimum detectable earthquake magnitude. The proposed framework demonstrates the potential of DAS as a complementary tool for offshore geophysical and maritime monitoring, providing a basis for future studies on vessel tracking, seafloor topography, and earthquake monitoring.

How to cite: Wei, Y. J. and Chan, C. H.: Application of Distributed Acoustic Sensing to Detect and Identify of Vessels and Natural Events in the Northeastern Offshore Region of Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4712, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4712, 2026.

EGU26-5156 * | Orals | SM3.4 | Highlight

Englacial ice quake cascades in the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream - Observations and implications of ice stream dynamics 

Andreas Fichtner, Coen Hofstede, Brian Kennett, Anders Svensson, Julien Westhoff, Fabian Walter, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Eliza Cook, Dimitri Zigone, Daniela Jansen, and Olaf Eisen

Ice streams are major contributors to ice sheet mass loss and critical regulators of sea level change. Despite their important, standard viscous flow simulations of ice stream deformation and evolution have limited predictive power, mostly because our understanding of the involved processes is limited. This leads, for instance, to widely varying predictions of sea level rise during the next decades.

 

Here we report on a Distributed Acoustic Sensing experiment conducted in the borehole of the East Greenland Ice Core Project (EastGRIP) on the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. For the first time, our observations reveal a brittle deformation mode that is incompatible with viscous flow over length scales similar to the resolution of modern ice sheet models: englacial ice quake cascades that are not being recorded at the surface. A comparison with ice core analyses shows that ice quakes preferentially nucleate near volcanism-related impurities, such as thin layers of tephra or sulfate anomalies. These are likely to promote grain boundary cracking, and appear as a macroscopic form of crystal-scale wild plasticity. A conservative estimate indicates that seismic cascades are likely to produce strain rates that are comparable in amplitude to those measured geodetically, thereby bridging the well-documented gap between current ice sheet models and observations.

How to cite: Fichtner, A., Hofstede, C., Kennett, B., Svensson, A., Westhoff, J., Walter, F., Ampuero, J.-P., Cook, E., Zigone, D., Jansen, D., and Eisen, O.: Englacial ice quake cascades in the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream - Observations and implications of ice stream dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5156, 2026.

We present a back-projection based earthquake location method tailored to Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) arrays, using short overlapping fiber segments and a combined P–S framework to reliably locate local earthquakes. A 66km quasi-linear telecommunication fiber in Israel was repurposed as a DAS array. We analyzed several local earthquakes with varying source–array geometries. We divided the fiber into overlapping 5.4 km segments and back-projected P- and S-wave strain-rate recordings using a local 1D velocity model over a regional grid of potential earthquake locations. Each grid point is assigned with P- and S-phase semblance, and the corresponding phase-specific origin times, associated with the timing of maximum semblance. Segment-specific P- and S-phase semblance maps and the difference between P and S origin times were combined through a weighting scheme that favors segments with spatially compact high-semblance regions. The objective is maximizing both P- and S-wave semblance and minimizing P- and S-wave origin time discrepancies. Results for the analyzed earthquakes reveal robust constraints on both azimuth and epicentral distance from the fiber, and demonstrate the ability to mitigate DAS-related artifacts associated with broadside sensitivity and reduced coherency. We demonstrated the potential of the approach for real-time earthquake location and showed its performance when only P-wave recordings are available, underscoring the method’s potential for future DAS-based earthquake early warning implementation.

How to cite: Noy, G., Ben Zeev, S., and Lior, I.: Earthquake Location using Back Projection with Distributed Acoustic Sensing with Implications for Earthquake Early Warning, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5259, 2026.

EGU26-5274 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Spectral analysis of background and transient signals at Mount Etna using rectilinear fibre-optic segments 

Hugo Latorre, Sergio Diaz-Meza, Philippe Jousset, Sergi Ventosa, Arantza Ugalde, Gilda Currenti, and Rafael Bartolomé

Etna is the largest, most active and closely monitored volcano in Europe,
making it a crucial study region for volcanology and geohazard assessment. In early
July 2019, a 1.5 km fibre-optic cable was deployed near the summit of Mount Etna
and interrogated for two months. The cable was divided into four main segments, two
of which point towards different active crater areas. Temporary seismic broadband
stations and infrasound sensors were also deployed along the cable. During the
experiment, three distinct eruptive events were recorded. The first two events are
characterised by a large number of explosions in the active crater area, together with
an increase in background tremor activity. The third event is characterised by a larger
increase in background tremor, but almost no explosions.

The continuous recordings are analysed in the frequency-wavenumber domain,
which reveals the features of the background tremor activity and the stacked transient
signals, such as explosions. During the first two eruptive events, the stack of
explosive sources is characterised by a non-dispersive arrival, travelling with
different apparent velocities along each segment, and a non-linear ground response up
to 25 Hz. These segments can be used as an antenna to estimate an average back-
azimuth for the explosions, which come from the same crater area during both
eruptive events.

Outside of the three eruptive events, the background tremor features two slow
dispersion modes, both well resolved on the raw recordings. The slowest mode is
affected by gauge-length attenuation at higher frequencies, due to its short
wavelength, but remains detectable up to 27 Hz, with group velocities as low as 170
m/s. These observations showcase the utility of simple, rectilinear geometries in
deployments despite their known shortcomings, such as in location procedures. For
known source regions, such as volcanoes, a well-oriented segment can leverage
continuous activity to record the incoming wavefield and extract dipersion curves
without the need to perform cross-correlations, simplifying the workflow.

How to cite: Latorre, H., Diaz-Meza, S., Jousset, P., Ventosa, S., Ugalde, A., Currenti, G., and Bartolomé, R.: Spectral analysis of background and transient signals at Mount Etna using rectilinear fibre-optic segments, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5274, 2026.

EGU26-5880 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

Enhancing High-frequency Ambient Noise for shallow subsurface imaging using urban ambient noise DAS recordings 

Leila Ehsaninezhad, Christopher Wollin, Verónica Rodríguez Tribaldos, and Charlotte Krawczyk

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) enables unused fiber optic cables in existing telecommunication networks, known as dark fibers, to function as dense arrays of virtual seismic receivers. Seismic waves generated by human activities and recorded by dense sensor networks provide an abundant, high-frequency energy source for high-resolution, non-invasive imaging of the urban subsurface. This approach enables detailed characterization of near-surface soils, sediments, and shallow geological structures with minimal surface impact, supporting applications such as groundwater management, site response and seismic amplification analysis, seismic hazard assessment, geothermal development, and urban planning. However, extracting coherent seismic signals from complex urban noise is challenging due to uneven source distribution, uncertain fiber deployment conditions, and variable coupling between the fiber and the ground. In particular, high-frequency range signals (e.g., above 4 Hz), needed to resolve shallow subsurface structures, are particularly difficult to recover. Two strategies can be used to address some of these challenges, by discarding poor quality seismic noise segments or by focusing on particularly favorable noise sources. In this study, we adopt the second approach and use vibrations generated by passing vehicles, particularly trains which are energetic sources that contain valuable high frequency information . Capturing and exploiting the seismic waves generated by these vehicles offers unique opportunities for efficient and high resolution urban seismic imaging.

We present an enhanced ambient noise interferometry workflow designed to exploit noise sources that are particularly favorable to the fiber geometry, i.e. transient and strong sources occurring at the edge of the fiber segment to be analyzed. The workflow is applied to traffic-dominated seismic noise recorded on a dark fiber deployed along a major urban road in Berlin, Germany. First, we select short seismic noise segments that contain signals from passing trains and then apply a frequency–wavenumber filter to isolate the targeted train-generated surface waves while suppressing other wavefield contributions. The filtered data is then processed using a standard interferometric approach based on cross-correlations to retrieve coherent seismic phases from ambient noise, producing virtual shot gathers. Finally, Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves is applied to derive one dimensional velocity models. This workflow targeted on specific transient sources reduces computational cost while enhancing dispersion measurements particularly at higher frequencies. By stacking the responses from tens of tracked vehicles, enhanced virtual shot gathers can be obtained and inverted to improve shallow subsurface models. This can be achieved with only a few hours of seismic noise recording, which is challenging using conventional ambient noise interferometry workflows.

How to cite: Ehsaninezhad, L., Wollin, C., Rodríguez Tribaldos, V., and Krawczyk, C.: Enhancing High-frequency Ambient Noise for shallow subsurface imaging using urban ambient noise DAS recordings, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5880, 2026.

EGU26-6600 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

Multi-fiber Distributed Acoustic Sensing for Urban Seismology in Athens, Greece 

Mohammed Almarzoug, Daniel Bowden, Nikolaos Melis, Pascal Edme, Adonis Bogris, Krystyna Smolinski, Angela Rigaux, Isha Lohan, Christos Simos, Iraklis Simos, Stavros Deligiannidis, and Andreas Fichtner

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) offers a promising approach for dense seismic recording in urban environments by repurposing existing telecommunication infrastructure. Athens presents an ideal setting for such an approach, as Greece is one of the most seismically active countries in Europe, and the Athens metropolitan area — home to nearly four million inhabitants — lies within a geologically complex basin whose vulnerability was demonstrated by the destructive 1999 Mw 5.9 Parnitha earthquake. Seismic hazard assessment requires accurate subsurface velocity models, but acquiring the data to build them in dense urban areas remains challenging.

We present results from a multi-fiber DAS experiment conducted in Athens, Greece, from 16 May to 30 June 2025, using four telecommunication fibers provided by the Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation (OTE). Two Sintela ONYX interrogators simultaneously interrogated the four fibers, which fan out from an OTE building with lengths of approximately 24, 38, 42, and 48 km, providing extensive azimuthal coverage of Athens. This makes the study one of the largest urban DAS campaigns ever performed.

Data were acquired in two configurations, a lower spatial resolution mode optimised for earthquake recording (~26 days) and a higher resolution mode for ambient noise interferometry (~19 days). To detect seismic events, we applied bandpass filtering followed by phase-weighted stacking across channels to enhance coherent arrivals. An STA/LTA (short-time average/long-time average) trigger was then used to identify candidate events. During the acquisition period, the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) recorded 2,645 events across the broader seismic network, of which 548 were detected on at least one fiber (368, 343, 328, and 322 on fibers 1–4, respectively). Detection capability depends on distance and magnitude — we achieve near-complete detection within ~20 km, while many events of ML ≥ 2 were recorded at distances exceeding 200 km. The array also captured small local events absent from the NOA catalogue, likely corresponding to local seismicity below the detection threshold of the sparser regional network. Characterising this unobserved local seismicity is one of the objectives of ongoing work.

For events within 50 km of the interrogator site, we pick P- and S-wave arrivals to constrain body-wave travel times. These picks are used to locate events in the NOA catalogue, which enables us to compare with network-derived hypocentres and allows us to assess potential improvement from the dense DAS coverage, before applying the approach to smaller events detected only by DAS. The travel-time data will also serve as input for 3D eikonal traveltime tomography to image subsurface velocity structure beneath metropolitan Athens.

How to cite: Almarzoug, M., Bowden, D., Melis, N., Edme, P., Bogris, A., Smolinski, K., Rigaux, A., Lohan, I., Simos, C., Simos, I., Deligiannidis, S., and Fichtner, A.: Multi-fiber Distributed Acoustic Sensing for Urban Seismology in Athens, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6600, 2026.

EGU26-6949 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

SAFE - Tsunami early warning system using available seafloor fiber cables with Chirped-pulse DAS 

Javier Preciado-Garbayo, Jaime A. Ramirez, Alejandro Godino-Moya, Jorge Canudo, Diego Gella, Jose Maria Garcia, Yuqing Xie, Jean Paul Ampuero, and Miguel Gonzalez-Herraez

Traditional tsunami early warning systems (TEWS) are typically expensive, have limited real-time availability, require continuous maintenance, and involve long deployment times. The SAFE project aims to overcome these limitations by developing a new tsunami warning technology based on Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), leveraging existing seafloor fiber optic cables. This approach offers continuous 24/7 monitoring, near-zero maintenance, faster response times, and ease of installation. The project includes contributions ranging from the development of a novel Chirped-pulse DAS interrogator (HDAS) with improved low-frequency performance to a novel post-processing software to obtain tide height from the measured seafloor strain and automatic detection and confirmation of a tsunami wave. All this has been implemented in a friendly user interface and is undergoing final evaluation by the tsunami warning authority in the NE Atlantic (the Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, IPMA).  

The validation is currently ongoing using the ALME subsea cable, which connects Almería and Melilla across the Alboran Sea. The interrogator has demonstrated the ability to detect swell waves with a maximum error of 20 cm in the deep sea and a post-processing response time of less than 90 seconds. It is expected that slower tsunami waves will yield more precise estimations of wave height.

Importantly, the technology could also successfully detect the 5.3 Mw earthquake near Cabo de Gata, Spain, on July 14, 2025, at a distance of only 40 km from the epicenter without major saturation. The extremely large dynamic range of the interrogator (approximately 10 times larger than a usual phase system) enables the system to monitor large-magnitude earthquakes without signal clipping. The SAFE system is capable of delivering critical seismic and hydrodynamic data within 5 minutes of an event, supporting early tsunami detection and rapid response.

How to cite: Preciado-Garbayo, J., A. Ramirez, J., Godino-Moya, A., Canudo, J., Gella, D., Garcia, J. M., Xie, Y., Ampuero, J. P., and Gonzalez-Herraez, M.: SAFE - Tsunami early warning system using available seafloor fiber cables with Chirped-pulse DAS, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6949, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6949, 2026.

EGU26-7247 * | ECS | Orals | SM3.4 | Highlight

Submarine Cable Optical Response to Seismic Waves: Insights from Controlled-Environment Tests 

Max Tamussino, David M. Fairweather, Ali Masoudi, Zitong Feng, Richard Barham, Neil Parkin, David Cornelius, Gilberto Brambilla, Andrew Curtis, and Giuseppe Marra

Fibre-optic sensing technology is transforming seafloor monitoring by enabling dense, continuous measurements across vast distances using existing telecommunication infrastructure. Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) and optical interferometry [1] have demonstrated remarkable potential for earthquake detection, ocean dynamics monitoring, and hazard early warning. However, for these technologies to be used for these applications, the transfer function between environmental perturbations and measured optical signal changes in submarine cables needs to be known.

We present the, to the best of our knowledge, first controlled-environment characterisation of submarine cable responses to active seismic and acoustic sources, comparing DAS and optical interferometry measurements with ground-truth data from 58 geophones, 20 three-component seismometers, and microphones [2]. Our results reveal three key findings:

  • In contrast with proposed theoretical models [3], our interferometric measurements show first-order sensitivity to broadside seismic sources, enabling localisation of arrivals along straight fibre links.
  • We identify a previously unreported fast-wave phenomenon, attributed to seismic energy coupling into the cable's metal armour and propagating at velocities exceeding 3.5 km/s, significantly altering recorded waveforms.
  • We compared measurements between adjacent fibres within the same cable. Results show significant discrepancies between the measured waveforms, which should be considered in applications operating in a similar frequency range as our tests.

These findings show the complexity of submarine cable mechanics and their impact on optical sensing performance. Understanding these processes is critical for calibrating transfer functions and improving the reliability of fibre-based geophysical observations.  In addition to these findings, we also discuss the limitations of our methodology, which primarily arise from the limited range of seismic source frequencies available. Our work presents a first step towards understanding the complex transfer function of environmental perturbations to optical signals in subsea cables, advancing the vision of large-scale, cost-effective Earth observation systems.

[1] Marra, G. et al. Optical interferometry–based array of seafloor environmental sensors using a transoceanic submarine cable. Science 376 (6595), 874–879 (2022)

[2] Fairweather, D.M., Tamussino, M., Masoudi, A. et al. Characterisation of the optical response to seismic waves of submarine telecommunications cables with distributed and integrated fibre-optic sensing. Sci Rep 14, 31843 (2024)

[3] Fichtner, A., Bogris, A., Nikas, T. et al. Theory of phase transmission fibre-optic deformation sensing. Geophysical Journal International, 231(2), 1031–1039, (2022)

 

How to cite: Tamussino, M., Fairweather, D. M., Masoudi, A., Feng, Z., Barham, R., Parkin, N., Cornelius, D., Brambilla, G., Curtis, A., and Marra, G.: Submarine Cable Optical Response to Seismic Waves: Insights from Controlled-Environment Tests, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7247, 2026.

EGU26-7298 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Coastal Ambient Noise and Microseismic Monitoring with Distributed Acoustic Sensing: a Case Study from Norfolk, UK 

Harry Whitelam, Lidong Bie, Jessica Johnson, Andres Payo Garcia, and Jonathan Chambers

Seismic ambient noise is a ubiquitous and constant resource, ideal for non-invasive investigations of the solid earth. Coastlines around the world are handling an increase in coastal erosion due to sea level rise and more energetic storms. Monitoring this is becoming an increasingly necessary task to protect coastal settlements. Using Distributed Acoustic Sensing in seismic monitoring has already shown incredible potential and offers the advantage of dense measurements. Our project seeks to identify the efficacy of Distributed Acoustic Sensing for monitoring subsurface changes which precede cliff failure. We present early findings from the first long-term deployment of a fibre optic cable along the coastline - North Sea, Norfolk, UK. We investigate differences in signal characteristics between conventional seismometers and Distributed Acoustic Sensing in this setting, and interpret the seismic signatures of key sources in the area. This deployment was recording for 22 months, allowing us to monitor both short-term and seasonal changes. We identify the frequency ranges excited by storm events (0.2 - 1 Hz), the dominance of short-period secondary microseismic activity, and the importance of local sea state and weather on influencing higher frequency signals. We also discuss limitations of Distributed Acoustic Sensing and the sources it can not reliably capture when compared to broadband seismometers and nodal geophones. We conclude by discussing how this noise analysis affects the use of ambient noise tomography for seismic velocity monitoring. Future research will test the efficacy of such applications, with the hope of providing better estimates of coastal recession and identifying hazardous areas on a metre-scale.

How to cite: Whitelam, H., Bie, L., Johnson, J., Payo Garcia, A., and Chambers, J.: Coastal Ambient Noise and Microseismic Monitoring with Distributed Acoustic Sensing: a Case Study from Norfolk, UK, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7298, 2026.

EGU26-7427 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Distributed Fiber-Optic Sensing for Strain and Temperature Monitoring in an Underground Mine to Enable Digital Twin Integration 

Michael Dieter Martin, Nils Nöther, Erik Farys, Massimo Facchini, and Jens-André Paffenholz

The aim of this study is to assess the potential of distributed fiber-optic sensors for measuring strain and temperature in order to monitor the structural integrity of underground mining drifts and chambers. The work is conducted within the framework of the project “Model coupling in the context of a virtual underground laboratory and its development process” (MOVIE). The overall MOVIE project aim is intended to support the creation of a digital twin, thereby improving safety and operational efficiency through enhanced digital planning across various mining environments. Time-dependent, spatially distributed temperature and rock deformation data will be recorded along fiber-optic sensing cables. These measurements will serve as boundary conditions for integrated geometrical and geomechanical models of the drift and chambers. In the initial phase, a 60-meter-long drift is instrumented using fiber-optic Brillouin-based Distributed Temperature and Strain Sensing (DTSS). Based on laboratory tests and considering the specific environmental conditions of the subsurface mine, i.e., ambient temperature variations, surface roughness, dust, and humidity, the optimal adhesive bonding materials and technique for direct cable installation on gneiss host rock was identified and successfully implemented. Following the initial monitoring setup, further experimental investigations are planned, including the monitoring of induced deformations in yielding arch support, rock bolts and the rock in contact with a hydraulic prop. The drift geometry and the spatial location of the fiber-optic cables within the drift are given by a 3D point cloud. Therefore, a 3D point cloud was captured after the fiber-optic cable installation using a high-end mobile mapping SLAM platform geo-referenced in a project-based coordinate frame. The locations of the geo-referenced fiber-optic cables will be correlated with the acquired DTSS measurements along the fiber-optic sensing cables. Ultimately, the meshed 3D point cloud will serve as foundational input for the combined geometrical and geomechanical model, forming the basis for a virtual reality-compatible digital twin enriched with real-time sensor data.

How to cite: Martin, M. D., Nöther, N., Farys, E., Facchini, M., and Paffenholz, J.-A.: Distributed Fiber-Optic Sensing for Strain and Temperature Monitoring in an Underground Mine to Enable Digital Twin Integration, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7427, 2026.

EGU26-7462 | Orals | SM3.4

Marine Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) for Detection of Submarine CO₂ Bubble Emissions: Insights from a Shallow-Water Volcanic Setting at Panarea (Italy) 

Cinzia Bellezza, Fabio Meneghini, Andrea Travan, Luca Baradello, Michele Deponte, and Andrea Schleifer

Fibre-optic sensing technologies are rapidly transforming geophysical monitoring by enabling spatially dense, temporally continuous observations of seismic and acoustic wavefields in environments that are difficult to instrument with conventional sensors. In marine settings, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) applied to seabed fibre-optic cables offers new opportunities for low-impact monitoring of fluid and gas migration processes, which are fundamental both to volcanic–hydrothermal systems and to emerging offshore carbon capture and storage (CCS) applications.

In this study, we investigate the feasibility of marine DAS for detecting natural and artificial CO₂ bubble emissions in a shallow-water volcanic environment offshore Panarea (Aeolian Islands, Italy). Panarea hosts the OGS NatLab Italy, part of ECCSEL-ERIC, thanks to its active submarine degassing associated with a hydrothermal system and therefore represents a natural laboratory and an analogue site for potential subseabed CO₂ leakage scenarios. A 1.1-km-long armored fibre-optic cable was deployed on the seabed and interrogated using two different DAS systems, providing continuous passive acoustic and seismic recordings. To support signal identification and interpretation, the DAS data were complemented by controlled gas releases from scuba tanks, by a High Resolution Seismic (boomer) survey and side-scan sonar imaging, to characterize seabed morphology and shallow subsurface structures along the cable route.

The DAS recordings revealed acoustic signatures associated with both natural CO₂ bubble emissions and controlled artificial releases. Bubble-related signals were detected as localized, temporally variable acoustic responses along the fibre, demonstrating the sensitivity of DAS to gas-driven processes at the seabed. The integration of passive DAS monitoring with active seismic imaging techniques enabled a more robust interpretation of observed signals and seabed processes.

From an Earth sciences perspective, these results demonstrate that marine DAS can serve as a low-impact, spatially continuous monitoring tool for submarine volcanic and hydrothermal systems, complementing traditional geochemical sampling and visual observations and offering new insights into the temporal variability of degassing activity. Beyond natural systems, the demonstrated capability of DAS to detect bubble-related acoustic signals has direct implications for offshore CCS, where early detection of CO₂ leakage is critical for storage integrity and environmental safety.

Overall, this field-scale experiment highlights the potential of fibre-optic sensing to address key challenges in marine monitoring, and underscores the value of integrated approaches for studying fluid and gas migration processes.

Acknowledgements:

  • ECCSELLENT project (“Development of ECCSEL - R.I. ItaLian facilities: usEr access, services and loNg-Term sustainability”)
  • ITINERIS - Italian Integrated Environmental Research Infrastructures System - Next Generation EU Mission 4, Component 2 - CUP B53C22002150006 - Project IR0000032
  • Panarea NatLab Italy: https://eccsel.eu/catalogue/facility/?id=124
  • ECCSEL: https://eccsel.eu/

 

References:

  • Detection of CO2 emissions from Panarea seabed with Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS): a preliminary investigation. Meneghini et al. OGS report (2025).
  • Marine Fiber-Optic Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) for Monitoring Natural CO₂ Emissions: A Case Study from Panarea (Aeolian Islands, Italy). Bellezza et al. Upon submission to Applied Sciences (2026).

How to cite: Bellezza, C., Meneghini, F., Travan, A., Baradello, L., Deponte, M., and Schleifer, A.: Marine Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) for Detection of Submarine CO₂ Bubble Emissions: Insights from a Shallow-Water Volcanic Setting at Panarea (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7462, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7462, 2026.

EGU26-7987 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Urban-Scale Seismic Imaging Using Ambient Noise and Dark Fiber Distributed Acoustic Sensing in Istanbul 

Laura Pinzon-Rincon, Verónica Rodríguez Tribaldos, Jordi Jordi Gómez Jodar, Patricia Martínez-Garzón, Laura Hillmann, Recai Feyiz Kartal, Tuğbay Kılıç, Marco Bohnhoff, and Charlotte Krawczyk

Urban areas are highly vulnerable to the impacts of geohazards due to their dense populations and complex infrastructure, with potentially severe consequences for human life and economic stability. Improving our knowledge of near-surface and shallow subsurface structures in urban environments is therefore essential for effective seismic hazard assessment and risk mitigation. However, conventional geophysical surveys in cities are often limited by logistical constraints, including strong anthropogenic activity, restricted access, legal limitations, and risks associated with instrument deployment. In this context, repurposing existing telecommunication optical fibers (so-called dark fibers) as dense seismic sensing arrays using Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) offers a powerful alternative for urban subsurface investigations. This approach enables continuous, high-resolution seismic monitoring without the need for extensive field instrumentation.

The megacity of Istanbul (Turkey) is located in one of the most tectonically active regions worldwide and is exposed to significant seismic hazard. Since May 2024, we have been continuously recording passive seismic data using Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) along an amphibious fiber-optic cable, is deployed in the urban district of Kartal (eastern region of Istanbul) and immediately offshore. In this study, we focus on the 3 km-long urban segments of the fiber. We analyze ambient seismic noise generated by various anthropogenic sources, such as train and vehicle traffic and other urban activities, and evaluate their suitability for high-frequency, DAS-based passive seismic interferometry in a complex and heterogeneous urban setting.

We develop and adapt processing strategies for ambient-noise interferometry that address the challenges of dense urban environments and DAS array geometries, including the identification of suitable fiber sections, channels, and source-receiver configurations, as well as preprocessing schemes designed for strongly anthropogenic noise.The objective is to retrieve high-resolution, urban-scale subsurface velocity models that improve our understanding of shallow structures and material properties relevant to seismic hazard. Ultimately, this work aims to establish efficient methodologies for imaging the urban subsurface using existing infrastructure, contributing to improved geohazard assessment and supporting sustainable urban development in seismically active regions.

How to cite: Pinzon-Rincon, L., Rodríguez Tribaldos, V., Jordi Gómez Jodar, J., Martínez-Garzón, P., Hillmann, L., Feyiz Kartal, R., Kılıç, T., Bohnhoff, M., and Krawczyk, C.: Urban-Scale Seismic Imaging Using Ambient Noise and Dark Fiber Distributed Acoustic Sensing in Istanbul, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7987, 2026.

Applied to existing but underutilized fiber-optic networks (dark fibers), Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) offers an attractive approach for large-scale seismic monitoring with minimal deployment effort. However, the approach introduces specific challenges, as existing infrastructures were not designed for this purpose, leading to constraints related to sensor coupling, heterogeneous installation conditions, and limited characterization of the measurement points. In the frame of the RUBADO project, we investigate the potential and limitations of DAS applied to dark fibers to provide seismic observations supporting both operational monitoring and characterization of deep geothermal reservoirs. The approach is implemented at multiple spatial scales within the Upper Rhine Graben, where several geothermal plants are currently operating, under development, or in the planning phase. In this context, research activities within the project specifically target key practical challenges related to the use of DAS on dark-fibers for the seismic monitoring of geothermal reservoirs.

Currently, data are recorded along a ~20 km fiber-optic line using the KIT infrastructure, which will support the monitoring of the drilling of a 1.4 km-deep geothermal well at KIT Campus North. We present early results from local and regional seismic monitoring and associated methodological approaches for signal enhancement and seismic event detection. We also introduce a framework for subsurface characterization that leverages the frequent vehicle-generated signals observed in the DAS recordings. We then outline planned measurements at the scale of the Upper Rhine Graben, where a key feature is the simultaneous use of multiple dark-fiber lines. Given the geometry of the planned dark-fiber network, DAS observations will enable the simultaneous monitoring of several geothermal sites with favorable spatial coverage.

How to cite: Azzola, J. and Gaucher, E.: Seismic monitoring of geothermal reservoirs using Distributed Acoustic Sensing on dark fibers: the RUBADO project, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8212, 2026.

EGU26-8268 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

Seismic monitoring of alpine lake ice with distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) and nodal arrays 

Ariana David, Cédric Schmelzbach, Thomas Hudson, John Clinton, Elisabetta Nanni, Pascal Edme, and Frederik Massin

Lake ice stability is critical for safe operations on mid- to high-altitude Alpine lakes, such as touristic activities. Existing lake-ice monitoring approaches like ground-penetrating radar and drilling are limited in their ability to resolve spatial variability and to enable continuous monitoring and require direct access to the ice for in situ measurements. Seismological methods offer a complementary approach by recording the wave field generated by lake-ice flexure and fracturing. Here, we assess Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) as a long-term seismic monitoring tool for Alpine lakes.

During Winter 2025, we deployed two complementary seismic sensing systems on frozen Lake Sankt Moritz in the Swiss Alps: a fibre-optic network for DAS measurements and an array of over 40 three-component conventional autonomous seismic nodes to benchmark performance. We installed more than 2 km of fibre-optic cable and connected two interrogators that recorded, over a few weeks, strain and strain-rate data in two cores within the same cable.

To characterise ice properties and icequakes, we implemented workflows for automated icequake detection and location using the waveform-coherency based QuakeMigrate framework, which does not require phase picking, alongside an approach based on semi-automatic phase identification and picking. We successfully detected and located events with both types of instrument networks. Using a baseline catalogue from the three-component node data, we evaluated the DAS performance and achieved location agreement within a few metres between different sensing systems, demonstrating that DAS can robustly capture and localise icequake activity on lake ice and is a promising tool for continuous ice-stability monitoring.

How to cite: David, A., Schmelzbach, C., Hudson, T., Clinton, J., Nanni, E., Edme, P., and Massin, F.: Seismic monitoring of alpine lake ice with distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) and nodal arrays, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8268, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8268, 2026.

EGU26-8383 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Distributed acoustic sensing of very long period strain signals from strombolian explosions 

Francesco Biagioli, Eléonore Stutzmann, Pascal Bernard, Jean-Philippe Métaxian, Valérie Cayol, Giorgio Lacanna, Dario Delle Donne, Yann Capdeville, and Maurizio Ripepe

Very long period (VLP; 0.01-0.2 Hz) seismicity is observed at many volcanoes worldwide, and provides key insights into magma and fluid dynamics within volcanic structures. VLPs are typically recorded by sparse networks of seismometers, which limits the ability to resolve the resulting displacement (or deformation) at fine spatial scales. Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) may help overcome this limitation by densely sampling the projection of the strain tensor along fibre-optic cables with high spatial and temporal resolution, enabling a more complete view of VLP-induced deformation. Here, we analyse VLP strain signals recorded by DAS at Stromboli volcano (Italy) in November 2022 along a 6-km dedicated fibre-optic cable. We designed the cable geometry to provide broad coverage of the craters and to sample the strain at multiple locations and along different directions. We focus on a dataset of approximately 200 VLP events recorded between November 13 and 14, 2022. The VLP strain signals correlate with explosive activity and show consistent features across multiple events, indicating a persistent, non-destructive source. Leveraging the distributed nature of DAS measurements, we recover the principal strain axes of VLPs and estimate both the location and the volumetric change of the source using a quasi-static deformation model. We retrieve the principal horizontal strains for each VLP by inverting strain amplitudes measured along three different fibre directions and at multiple locations along the cable, allowing us to resolve their spatial distribution. The resulting principal VLP strains exhibit radial and tangential orientations with respect to the craters, consistent with observed seismic particle motions and an axisymmetric source. We then model the VLP strain along the fibre using a point-like deformation source (Mogi). The optimal agreement between modeled and observed VLP strain averaged over the 200 events is for a point source located ~500 m beneath the active craters, with an estimated volumetric change of ~30 m³. Under the assumption of a spherical source with a radius of 87 m, the inferred volumetric change corresponds to a pressure change of ~19 kPa. These results are consistent with previous studies and highlight the capability of DAS to investigate volcano deformation at long periods.

How to cite: Biagioli, F., Stutzmann, E., Bernard, P., Métaxian, J.-P., Cayol, V., Lacanna, G., Delle Donne, D., Capdeville, Y., and Ripepe, M.: Distributed acoustic sensing of very long period strain signals from strombolian explosions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8383, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8383, 2026.

EGU26-8769 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

Analyzing volcanic-like earthquakes with distributed acoustic sensing using a short segment of the Tongan seafloor telecommunications cable 

Shunsuke Nakao, Mie Ichihara, Masaru Nakano, Taaniela Kula, Rennie Vaiomounga, and Masanao Shinohara

The January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano highlighted the critical challenges in monitoring remote submarine volcanic activity. Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) utilizing existing seafloor telecommunications cables offers a promising solution to bridge this observational gap. We analyzed a one-week DAS dataset recorded in February 2023, approximately one year after the eruption, using a segment of a domestic telecommunication cable in Tonga.

While a previous analysis of this dataset focused on relatively large events with clear phases, our objective was to comprehensively detect small and unclear seismic signals to evaluate the post-eruption activity. We developed a new "duration-based" detection method that identifies temporally sustained energy increases in the array's median power, effectively suppressing spatially incoherent noise. This method successfully detected 770 discrete events, revealing a stable seismicity rate of approximately 110 events per day, significantly more than those detected by conventional triggering algorithms.

To distinguish the origin of these events, we estimated the apparent slowness of the signals using a robust method combining 2D Normalized Cross-Correlation and linear fitting (RANSAC). The results showed that most events have positive apparent slowness values, corresponding to arrivals from the direction of the HTHH volcano, rather than the negative apparent slowness corresponding to tectonic earthquakes from the Tongan Trench. These findings indicate that the HTHH volcano or its surrounding magmatic system maintained a high level of seismic activity even one year after the large 2022 eruption. This study demonstrates the capability of DAS to monitor subtle volcanic seismicity in submarine environments where traditional sensors are absent.

How to cite: Nakao, S., Ichihara, M., Nakano, M., Kula, T., Vaiomounga, R., and Shinohara, M.: Analyzing volcanic-like earthquakes with distributed acoustic sensing using a short segment of the Tongan seafloor telecommunications cable, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8769, 2026.

EGU26-9174 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

Clustering of Large Distributed Acoustic Sensing Datasets 

Oliver Bölt, Conny Hammer, and Céline Hadziioannou

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) turns optical fibers into high resolution strain sensors by monitoring the scattering of light within the fiber. With channel distances in the order of a few meters and a typical sampling frequency of 1 kHz, DAS is capable of recording a wide range of natural and anthropogenic seismic signals. Furthermore, the optical fibers used for DAS can be several kilometers long and are suitable for long-term measurements over weeks, months or years. The datasets obtained by DAS can therefore be very large, with up to several terabytes of data per day. Due to this large amount of data, it is challenging to get a good overview of the different types of seismic signals contained in the data, since a manual inspection can become immensely time-consuming.

In this study we aim to automatize this process by clustering the data to detect and classify different types of seismic signals.  A two-dimensional windowed Fourier transform is used to automatically extract features from the data. In contrast to many other approaches, this allows to not only use temporal information, but to also include the spatial dimension to further distinguish between different seismic sources and wave types.

The clustering is performed in two steps. First, a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is used to cluster the feature set. Then, the final clusters are obtained by merging similar components of the GMM.

A key advantage of this method is that each final cluster represents a specific frequency distribution and can therefore be turned into a filter. While many clustering approaches only assign a list of labels or cluster memberships to the data, our method provides the ability to directly extract the characteristic seismic signals for each cluster. This helps greatly with cluster interpretation and can also be useful for further applications like event detection or denoising.

The proposed procedure is applied to different large DAS datasets, yielding a variety of different clusters. By filtering the data for each cluster and interpreting the obtained waveforms, as well as the long-term spatiotemporal amplitude patterns, different sources like traffic or machinery can be identified.

How to cite: Bölt, O., Hammer, C., and Hadziioannou, C.: Clustering of Large Distributed Acoustic Sensing Datasets, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9174, 2026.

EGU26-10581 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

Urban Seismology of a Popular Road Race Using Distributed Acoustic Sensing 

Jorge Canudo, Diego Gella, Pascual Sevillano, and Javier Preciado-Garbayo

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) has emerged as a powerful tool for monitoring human-induced seismic signals in urban environments, enabling dense, meter-scale observations of dynamic sources. Building on previous studies demonstrating the capability of DAS to image large public events, such as parades and other mass-participation activities, we present a novel experiment in which two different DAS technologies (ΦOTDR and Chirped-Pulse ΦOTDR) were simultaneously deployed to record a popular pedestrian road race held in the surroundings of the University of Zaragoza (Spain).

The experiment took advantage of an already deployed optical-fiber installation with a total effective length of approximately 2 km. The fiber layout captured three distinct geometrical configurations with respect to the race course: (1) a straight section coincident with the runners’ trajectory over the last 300 m of the first kilometer (outbound leg), (2) the same straight section during the return at kilometer 4 (inbound leg), and (3) a perpendicular crossing of the fiber with the race course at the finish line. This geometry provides a unique opportunity to analyze runner-induced ground vibrations under varying crowd densities, running speeds, and fiber–source orientations.

Waterfall representations of the strain-rate data reveal clear, coherent signatures associated with individual runners and runner groups in both DAS systems. Along the straight section, the outbound leg exhibits a compact, high-amplitude wavefield characterized by closely spaced, overlapping runner traces, consistent with the tightly packed peloton early in the race. In contrast, the inbound leg shows a markedly more dispersed pattern, reflecting the progressive spreading of participants according to performance and fatigue. These differences are consistently observed in both phase-based and chirped-pulse DAS data, although with distinct signal-to-noise characteristics across different frequency bands.

At the finish line, where the fiber crosses the race course perpendicularly, the DAS records provide exceptional temporal resolution of runner arrivals. The first five finishers are individually and unambiguously identified, with isolated signatures that can be robustly matched to official arrival times. This demonstrates the potential of DAS not only for bulk crowd characterization but also for resolving individual human-induced seismic sources in real-world conditions.

Our results highlight the complementarity of DAS technologies for urban seismology applications. The experiment underscores the sensitivity of DAS to subtle variations in crowd dynamics and source geometry and illustrates its potential for non-intrusive monitoring of mass-participation events, pedestrian flows, and urban activity. These observations contribute to the growing field of anthropogenic seismology and reinforce the role of optical fiber sensing as a scalable tool for high-resolution monitoring of human activity in cities.

How to cite: Canudo, J., Gella, D., Sevillano, P., and Preciado-Garbayo, J.: Urban Seismology of a Popular Road Race Using Distributed Acoustic Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10581, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10581, 2026.

EGU26-10676 | Orals | SM3.4

Storm Amy observations with fibre-optic DAS data at the Svelvik CO₂ Field Lab, Norway: Implications for Monitoring and Networks  

Claudia Pavez Orrego, Marcin Duda, Dias Urozayev, Bastien Dupuy, and Nicolas Barbosa

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) has become a powerful technique for high-resolution, continuous monitoring of near- and subsurface earth phenomena, with increasing applications in geohazards, seismology, and industry applications such as CO₂ storage monitoring. However, the sensitivity of DAS measurements to atmospheric forcing, particularly during extreme weather events, remains poorly understood. In this study, we investigate the response of a permanent, 1.2 km long straight fibre-optic array installed at the Svelvik CO₂ Field Laboratory (Norway), to intense wind conditions associated with the Amy Storm, which hit Norway from October 3-6, 2025. 

 

As part of efforts to understand passive methods to monitor CO2 migration in the subsurface, an Alcatel Submarine Networks (ASN) DAS system continuously recorded strain-rate data along a buried fibre that includes both near surface-installed sections and borehole down- and up-going segments reaching depths of approximately 100 m. The near-surface sections were installed inside protective pipes and were therefore not directly coupled to the surrounding ground. To characterise wind-induced seismic signatures, we analyse downsampled recordings using band-limited root-mean-square (RMS) amplitudes and spectral methods across three frequency ranges (0.1–1 Hz, 1–3 Hz, and 3–10 Hz) and time averages over 1 hr intervals. Time–frequency characteristics are examined using group-averaged spectrograms, and a Spectral Energy Index (SEI) is derived by integrating power spectral density within each frequency band. These seismic metrics are compared with near located meteorological observations, including mean wind speed, maximum mean wind speed, and maximum wind gusts. 

 

The results reveal a pronounced increase in DAS energy coincident with the maximum speed gusts of storm Amy, with the strongest responses observed at frequencies below 3 Hz. Correlation and lag analyses show that seismic energy variations are closely associated with periods of enhanced wind activity, particularly wind gusts, indicating a strong coupling between transient atmospheric forcing and ground vibrations. Importantly, the response differs significantly between surface and depth segments of the fibre. Surface-installed channels exhibit broadband amplitude increases correlated with direct wind–ground interaction, while depth channels display coherent low-frequency spectral patterns, suggesting excitation by wind-generated surface waves or distant secondary sources (e.g., waves from neighbouring fjord) rather than direct aerodynamic loading. 

 

These findings demonstrate that DAS arrays deployed at wells (abandoned or active) are sensitive to extreme meteorological forcing, which can imprint distinct and depth-dependent seismic signatures. Quantifying and distinguishing wind-induced signals is therefore critical for the robust interpretation of DAS data in long-term passive monitoring applications, particularly when subtle subsurface signals related to CO₂ injection, migration, or leakage must be detected in the presence of strong environmental noise. At the same time, this sensitivity highlights an additional benefit of such fibre-optic installations: DAS infrastructure deployed in future abandoned wells in the context of  Oil & Gas industry and their reutilization for CO2 capture and storage, can also provide valuable information for national seismic and environmental monitoring networks, extending their utility beyond site-specific applications. 

How to cite: Pavez Orrego, C., Duda, M., Urozayev, D., Dupuy, B., and Barbosa, N.: Storm Amy observations with fibre-optic DAS data at the Svelvik CO₂ Field Lab, Norway: Implications for Monitoring and Networks , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10676, 2026.

EGU26-10839 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

Fibre sensing at regional scales with telecom cables: the IMAGFib project 

Nicolas Luca Celli, Chris Bean, Adonis Bogris, Georgios Aias Karydis, Eoin Kenny, Rosa Vergara, Örn Jónsson, and Marco Ruffini

Fibre sensing technology can provide seismic data at a variety of scales, but, currently, the difficulty in accessing long telecom fibres, together with the novelty of the instruments, their range limitations and massive data output, mostly constrain its applications to fibre <100 km long.

In this study, we showcase the first results from the new project IMAGFib (multiscale seismic IMAGing with optical FlBre telecom cables), acquiring on-/offshore fibre sensing data on commercial telecom fibres in the North Atlantic Ocean, Irish Sea and across Ireland. This project combines utilising Distributed Strain Sensing (DSS, also known as DAS) on >400 km with 10 m spatial sampling with a new, distributed Microwave Frequency Fiber Interferometer (MFFI) capable sensing over 1700 km of submarine cables connecting Ireland to Iceland, albeit with a coarser 50-100 km spatial sampling. We use the acquired data to assess the performance of fibre sensing as a regional-to-continental scale seismic and ocean monitoring, and a future imaging tool, with a focus on low frequencies (<1 Hz).

By forging research collaborations with multiple telecom operators, we are able to perform DSS on multiple cable sections across the region, aiming to cover a continuous linear profile from Wales to the North Atlantic through different experiments (to be completed early 2026), part of which is performed on live, traffic-carrying telecom fibres. Our DSS results show that while having lower signal to noise ratios compared to nearby seismic stations, DSS on noisy telecom fibres can successfully record most Mw>6 teleseismic events worldwide, as well as microseisms originating in the North Atlantic and/or Irish Sea on all sections of the cable.

In order to extend fibre sensing far into the North Atlantic Ocean, we present the newly developed MFFI sensor, which uses optical interferometry in conjunction with high-loss loop backs at line amplifiers, turning each section of the cable between amplifiers (50-100 km) into independent strain sensors. For our experiment on the Ireland-Iceland cable, this yields 17 traces along the fibre. Ongoing recording in late 2025-early 2026 allows us to evaluate its capability to sense seismic signals, marine storms, currents and possibly ocean-bottom temperature variations across seasons.

With a strong focus on long-range and low-frequency sensing and integration with live telecom infrastructure, IMAGFib is centred on the establishment of fibre sensing as a global geo-sensing tool. Our successful results using DSS on live telecom fibres, and developing MFFI technology using affordable off-the-shelf components represent a key step in advancing the efforts to broaden trusted research utilising existing, commercial telecom cables.

How to cite: Celli, N. L., Bean, C., Bogris, A., Karydis, G. A., Kenny, E., Vergara, R., Jónsson, Ö., and Ruffini, M.: Fibre sensing at regional scales with telecom cables: the IMAGFib project, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10839, 2026.

EGU26-11265 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

SmartScape: Distributed Strain Sensing on Dublin City Telecom Fibre to Monitor Urban and Subsurface Dynamics for Smart City Applications 

Bruna Chagas de Melo, Christopher J. Bean, and Colm Browning

Rapid urban growth in Dublin is placing increasing pressure on transport systems, construction activity, and environmental management, creating a clear need for high-resolution observations of how the city operates at both surface and subsurface levels. This study presents the initial stage of a new project that explores the feasibility of using existing optical telecommunication infrastructure as a large-scale urban sensing platform through Distributed Strain Sensing (DSS). DSS converts optical fibres into dense seismic arrays by measuring strain-rate perturbations caused by ground vibrations, offering a cost-efficient approach to city-scale monitoring. This can have a potentially transformative impact on smart and sustainable city management, offering new data insights into urban dynamics while leveraging existing city-owned fibre infrastructure.

We report on a first pilot deployment on a dark ~80 km fibre ring crossing the city centre, residential neighbourhoods, surface tram lines, and an underground tunnel. A FEBUS-A1 interrogator was installed at a data centre in Dublin’s north side and operated for 23 days. Several acquisition configurations were tested, with the most stable setup recording ~60 km of fibre at 500 Hz sampling and 20 m gauge length for a continuous 10-day period. Remote access enabled iterative optimisation of acquisition parameters during the experiment.

The analysis presented here is preliminary and focuses on assessing data quality, signal content, and key technical limitations. Initial observations indicate that the DSS array captures clear signatures of moving vehicles with different velocities, rail-related activity, and teleseismic signals, including the October 10th M7.4 Mindanao, Philippines event. Signal quality progressively degrades beyond ~30 km from the interrogator, where noise becomes dominant, highlighting challenges associated with attenuation, coupling, and urban noise in long fibre links.

Ongoing work focuses on developing denoising and source-identification strategies, including cross-correlation approaches and unsupervised machine-learning, alongside accurate georeferencing of fibre channels onto detailed urban maps. These analyses will be integrated with independent datasets such as traffic records from Dublin City Council and existing environmental acoustic noise maps. Rather than delivering operational products, this study is intended to establish a robust baseline on data quality, signal content, and interpretability, defining what information can realistically be extracted from urban DSS deployments in Dublin at this early stage.

How to cite: Chagas de Melo, B., J. Bean, C., and Browning, C.: SmartScape: Distributed Strain Sensing on Dublin City Telecom Fibre to Monitor Urban and Subsurface Dynamics for Smart City Applications, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11265, 2026.

EGU26-11391 | Posters on site | SM3.4

Integrating Distributed Acoustic Sensing and borehole seismometer data for seismic velocity measurements and negative magnitude event location: a case study from the TABOO Near Fault Observatory (Northern Apennines, Italy) 

Nicola Piana Agostinetti, Federica Riva, Irene Molinari, Simone Salimbeni, Alberto Villa, Marta Arcangeli, Giulio Poggiali, Raffaello Pegna, Gilberto Saccorotti, Gaetano Festa, and Lauro Chiaraluce

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) technology makes use of fiber optic cables to sense vibrations, at the Earth’s surface, at unprecedented spatial resolution, less than one meter over distances of kilometres. DAS data have been used for monitoring both the Solid Earth (earthquakes, dyke intrusions and more) and the environment (landslides, snow avalanches, groundwater). Despite its wide application and the numerous, successful case-studies, DAS technology presents two significant limitations: the lower S/N ratio with respect to standard seismometers and the strong "directivity effect" (vibrations must propagate in the axial direction of the fiber optic cable). In this study, we illustrate how the integration of DAS and borehole seismometer data can be used to improve earthquake location and obtain novel information on seismic velocity of the buried rock mass. We analyse the DAS data recorded along a 1km fiber optic cable deployed in a full 3D geometry. The fiber optic cables have been installed in the framework of a surface and borehole very dense seismic array partaining to the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory (TABOO-NFO). The cable geometry covers two horizontal planes, off-set one from the other and at different altitudes, and a vertical borehole  going to 130m depth. The infrastructure has been installed across (from the hangingwal to the footwall) the Gubbio fault, a secondary fault segment antithetic to the main Alto Tiberina master fault bounding at depth a normal fault system. in the Alto Tiberina fault system (Northern Apennines, Italy). The center of the cable array coincides with a shallow borehole (130m deep)  instrumented with two short period seismometers, one at the surface and one at the bottom. The integration of the data from the seismometes and those recorded along such 3D geometry allows for a better recognition and location of very small seismic events occurring on the fault, which are going largely undetected by the local (dense) seismic network. Moreover, data from small size events (Mag > 1) can be used to estimate the P- and S- wave seismic velocity of the geological formation traversed by the borehole (namely, Maiolica fm and Marne a Fucoidi fm), defining precise measurements of such velocities at larger scale-length (10s of meters) with respect to measurements obtained on the same rock in the laboratory.

How to cite: Piana Agostinetti, N., Riva, F., Molinari, I., Salimbeni, S., Villa, A., Arcangeli, M., Poggiali, G., Pegna, R., Saccorotti, G., Festa, G., and Chiaraluce, L.: Integrating Distributed Acoustic Sensing and borehole seismometer data for seismic velocity measurements and negative magnitude event location: a case study from the TABOO Near Fault Observatory (Northern Apennines, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11391, 2026.

EGU26-11798 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

Distributed Acoustic Sensing of debris-flow activity in the Öschibach torrent (Swiss Alps) 

Juan Sebastian Osorno Bolivar, Malgorzata Chmiel, Fabian Walter, Felix Blumenschein, and Kevin Friedli

The slope instability of Spitze Stei supplies large sediment volumes that accumulate at the slope toe and are subsequently remobilized as debris flows and debris floods in the adjacent Öschibach torrent thus threatening the nearby village of Kandersteg, Switzerland. Since early 2020, continuous monitoring and preventive measures have been implemented in the area. While long-term monitoring has documented frequent torrential activity, the dynamic linkage between sediment supply from the rock slope and debris-flow activity in the torrent remains poorly constrained due to the spatial limitations of point sensors.

In summer 2025, we deployed a dense seismic array on the rock slope and interrogated an existing dark optical fiber running along the ~4 km-long Öschibach torrent using Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS). The DAS setup enabled spatially continuous strain-rate measurements at meter-scale resolution with a sampling frequency of ~600 Hz. For the three-month acquisition period, our aim is to detect and characterize debris-flow and debris-flood activity using DAS methods, supported by relative water-level time series and data from nearby seismic stations.

A catalog of possible debris flows and debris floods is generated leveraging an established pre-warning water-level increase threshold (set at 0.6 m), using moving average windowing and duration filtering. This discharge inventory was characterized using the DAS array, whose ~850 channels have been geolocalized with tap test, based on strain rate amplitudes visualized in logarithmic waterfall plots. Analysis of Power Spectral Density (PSD) for the corresponding DAS recordings reveals an increase in seismic energy at high frequencies (~20-40 Hz) concentrated on channels closest to the stream. Vertically offset waveform comparison plots demonstrate high coherence between DAS channels and wavefields recorded at the seismic stations, from which the apparent speed of seismic sources can be estimated. We also observe other coherent signals along the fiber, including mass movements from the Spitze Stei rock slope (e.g., rockfalls and granular flows), as well as local and tele-seismic earthquakes.

Our assessment of signal quality and coherence provides a basis for subsequent event detection, source location, and characterization using array-based methods, particularly during the event initiation phase. Our multisensor approach highlights the potential of DAS to provide spatially dense observations of torrential processes in steep Alpine catchments.

How to cite: Osorno Bolivar, J. S., Chmiel, M., Walter, F., Blumenschein, F., and Friedli, K.: Distributed Acoustic Sensing of debris-flow activity in the Öschibach torrent (Swiss Alps), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11798, 2026.

EGU26-12160 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Best Practices for Machine Learning based Icequake Picking with Distributed Acoustic Sensing 

Johanna Zitt, Marius Isken, Jannes Münchmeyer, Dominik Gräff, Andreas Fichtner, Fabian Walter, and Josefine Umlauft

Over the past years, a wide range of machine learning–based phase picking methods have been developed, primarily targeting three-component seismometer data from tectonic earthquakes. With the rapid growth of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) applications, diversification of use cases, and availability of increasingly large DAS datasets, these methods are now being applied to single-component DAS recordings. However, their optimal use for DAS data and for alternative signal types such as cryoseismological events, remains rarely explored.
In this study, we present a systematic analysis of the performance of machine learning–based phase picking methods pretrained on tectonic earthquakes on one-component cryoseismological DAS data obtained on the Rhône Glacier in the Swiss Alps in July 2020. We evaluate multiple strategies for generating pseudo-three-component data from the intrinsically single-component DAS strain-rate data, including zero-padding of missing components, duplication of the single component, and the use of consecutive DAS channels as surrogate components. In addition, we assess the phase-picking performance across different preprocessing schemes, comparing conservatively band-pass filtered data with denoised data obtained using a J-invariant  autoencoder specifically trained on cryoseismological DAS data. Finally, we analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of located events over the full observation period and across the entire glacier. Event clusters are correlated with weather conditions, daily cycles, and the geometry of the glacier bed to explore potential patterns in cryoseismic activity.
Our results indicate that treating consecutive DAS channels as surrogate components yields the most reliable phase-picking performance, whereas extensive denoising can degrade picking accuracy. We further discuss spatial clusters of event locations and their correlations with glacier topography and meteorological conditions.

How to cite: Zitt, J., Isken, M., Münchmeyer, J., Gräff, D., Fichtner, A., Walter, F., and Umlauft, J.: Best Practices for Machine Learning based Icequake Picking with Distributed Acoustic Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12160, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12160, 2026.

EGU26-12365 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) for Geothermal Applications: a Case Study Across Dublin City 

Eoghan Totten, Jean Baptiste Tary, and Bruna Chagas de Melo

Seismic monitoring plays an integral role in geothermal renewable energy projects for imaging, site-specific noise characterisation and hazard risk assessment purposes. The number of European geothermal energy projects is expected to rise over the next decade as efforts to mitigate for reliance on fossil fuel-derived energy sources continue. Related to this is the pressing need to prospect for and expand the use of geothermal energy in urban settings.

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is increasingly applied in lieu of geophone-based deployments. Instead of measuring seismic waves at a limited number of discrete points, DAS transforms fibre-optic cables into large and dense arrays of virtual sensors by measuring small changes in strain rate, with gauge length resolutions as small as 1-20 metres. DAS interferometry is able to capitalise on extant urban fibre-optic infrastructure, as well as exploit the diverse and passive seismic noise sources available in towns and cities.

Here we present in-progress DAS data analysis from an approximately 70-80km long cable crossing Dublin city (south to north) for three weeks of cumulative recording between September-October 2025. This cable tracks a large portion of the M50 ring road, the main arterial traffic route between north and south Dublin. We identify and characterise the main noise sources as a function of space and time, comparing DAS signals with temporally overlapping broadband seismometer data. We discuss possible approaches to suppress incoherent noise along the cable for future shallow and deep geothermal monitoring, as well as imaging applications using coherent noise.

This research feeds into the European Union-funded Clean Energy Transition partnership project, GEOTWINS, which seeks to extend the state-of-the-art in modular geothermal digital twins, for improved deep geothermal imaging methodologies, drilling risk mitigation and to progress societal acceptance.

How to cite: Totten, E., Tary, J. B., and Chagas de Melo, B.: Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) for Geothermal Applications: a Case Study Across Dublin City, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12365, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12365, 2026.

EGU26-12403 | Posters on site | SM3.4

Railway Distributed Acoustic Sensing data as an aid to earthquake monitoring in northernmost Sweden 

Björn Lund, Matti Rantatalo, Myrto Papadopoulou, Michael Roth, and Gunnar Eggertsson

The Swedish Transport Administration (STA) currently monitors the railway between Kiruna and the Swedish-Norwegian border with Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), a distance of approximately 130 km. In collaboration with STA and Luleå University of Technology, the Swedish National Seismic Network (SNSN) has established data transmission on a request basis from the interrogator. As the railway crosses the Pärvie fault, the largest known, and still very active, glacially triggered fault, we hope to significantly improve detection and analysis of small earthquakes on that section of the fault. In this presentation we will show how we define low noise sections of the cable, using local and teleseismic events, and then use these as individual seismic stations. Over the 130 km, as the railway winds its way across the mountains, the cable generally runs in directions from N-S via NW-SE to W-E, providing many possible incidence directions. We discuss the technicalities of the data sharing, the existing metadata problems, how the DAS data is analyzed and incorporated into the routine processing at SNSN.

How to cite: Lund, B., Rantatalo, M., Papadopoulou, M., Roth, M., and Eggertsson, G.: Railway Distributed Acoustic Sensing data as an aid to earthquake monitoring in northernmost Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12403, 2026.

EGU26-12609 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Understanding fiber optic sensitivity to a wavefield: A framework to separate site amplification from orientation effects 

Olivier Fontaine, Andreas Fichtner, Thomas Hudson, Thomas Lecocq, and Corentin Caudron

Interpreting amplitudes in Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) data is challenging because the recorded signal is influenced by multiple factors.

To differentiate the impact of fiber orientation from site effects, we develop expressions of axial strain for different body wave polarizations. These expressions consider a linear fiber segment with any orientation in space. From these we explore array geometry properties and the potential of the DAS transfer function as a polarization filter. This last property arises from the polarity inversion characteristic of shear waves and the averaging nature of the gauge length. If the gauge length is set to be a loop instead of a linear segment then the DAS will average all azimuth for a horizontal loop, canceling SH waves. For a vertical loop, all dips are averaged canceling SV waves traveling within the loop plane. These results could reflect a link between DAS and rotational seismology. 

From these transfers functions, we develop a low-cost forward model based on ray theory that predicts amplitude recorded in a DAS array. Differences in amplitude between the modeled and observed wavefields relate to local site amplification from which, we create an amplitude correction factor. We evaluated this method using active seismic experiments from the PoroTomo dataset, successfully identifying regions with anomalous high amplitude responses consistent with the recordings following a magnitude 4.3. 

The results, together with the main elements of our approach, are transferable in many new sensing strategies, including optimization of fiber deployment geometry, generations of synthetic data and the acceleration and improvement of existing location methods through DAS-specific amplitude and phase corrections.
In summary, by exploiting the known directional sensitivity of DAS, we draw new insights from amplitude variations along the fiber array, treating energy loss as equally informative as energy gain in interpreting the wavefield. 

How to cite: Fontaine, O., Fichtner, A., Hudson, T., Lecocq, T., and Caudron, C.: Understanding fiber optic sensitivity to a wavefield: A framework to separate site amplification from orientation effects, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12609, 2026.

EGU26-12675 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Strategies and Challenges in Applications of DAS-based Earthquake Early Warning Systems 

Claudio Strumia, Gaetano Festa, Alister Trabattoni, Diane Rivet, Luca Elia, Francesco Carotenuto, Simona Colombelli, Antonio Scala, Francesco Scotto di Uccio, and Anjali Suresh

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) transforms fiber-optic cables into ultra-dense strainmeter arrays, providing spatially and temporally continuous earthquake recordings. While its potential for offline seismic characterization is increasingly recognized, a key application of this sensing paradigm is real-time monitoring for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW). The use of existing fiber-optic infrastructures allows for sensing cables located close to seismogenic sources, such as offshore subduction zones, potentially extending the lead time of issued alerts. DAS deployments within Near Fault Observatories further provide dense spatial coverage of epicentral areas, favouring the rapid extraction of robust source information.

The application of DAS to EEW – alone or as a complement to standard accelerometers - has been recently explored, specifically focusing on the estimate of earthquake magnitude from the first seconds of recorded data. Existing approaches rely either on conversion strategies to ground-motion proxies or on direct analysis in the strain-rate domain. However, both the robustness of different conversion strategies and the selection of the most informative physical quantity for early magnitude estimation are not yet consolidated. In offshore environments, additional complexity arises from fiber-optic cables deployed on sediments, where strong converted phases often dominate early waveforms and hinder the direct P-wave signal traditionally used for EEW.

In this work, we analyse earthquakes recorded by the ABYSS network, supported by the ERC – starting program, consisting of 450 km of offshore telecommunication cables deployed along the Chilean subduction trench and interrogated by three DAS units. At this high-seismicity testbed, we develop a strategy for fast magnitude estimation with DAS. We show that converted Ps phases preceding S-wave arrivals carry significant information on earthquake magnitude. Furthermore, we investigated whether the use of time and space-integrated observables on DAS recordings can enhance the predictive power of amplitudes from the first seconds of seismic signals.

Finally, we assess the performance of a DAS-based EEW, grounded on the software PRESTo (Satriano et al., 2011). Using moderate-to-large offshore Chilean earthquakes, we highlight potential and limitations of DAS in regions with sparse conventional instrumentation. Complementary analyses using data from the Irpinia Near Fault Observatory demonstrate the benefits of jointly exploiting DAS and traditional seismic stations within dense monitoring networks, confirming the applicability of DAS-based EEW systems across different tectonic settings.

How to cite: Strumia, C., Festa, G., Trabattoni, A., Rivet, D., Elia, L., Carotenuto, F., Colombelli, S., Scala, A., Scotto di Uccio, F., and Suresh, A.: Strategies and Challenges in Applications of DAS-based Earthquake Early Warning Systems, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12675, 2026.

EGU26-13083 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Long range Coherent-Optical Frequency Domain Reflectometry for large scale distributed sensing 

Debanjan Show, Biplab Dutta, Maël Abdelhak, Olivier Lopez, Adèle Hilico, Anne Amy-Klein, Christian Chardonnet, Paul-Eric Pottie, and Etienne Cantin

Fig. 1: Map of the REFIMEVE network (green links) and its connection to European links.

In recent years, significant technological progress has demonstrated the feasibility of using the long distance fiber optic links as large scale distributed networks for environmental sensing [1]. Optical fibers are inherently sensitive to external perturbations: their mechanical structure responds to strain, while the light propagating within them undergoes measurable intensity and phase variation when subjected to vibration or seismic waves. A notable example is the French national research infrastructure REFIMEVE [2], which distributes ultrastable time and frequency references across more than 9000 km of fiber links connecting laboratories throughout France and Europe (see Fig. 1). The infrastructure has demonstrated strong potential for geophysical studies [3]. Applications such as earthquake detection, volcano monitoring, and environmental hazard surveillance are attracting increasing interest worldwide, particularly because they can leverage already existing fiber networks. In this context, the European project SENSEI (Smart European Networks for Sensing the Environment and Internet Quality) [4] aims to harness this potential by developing the next generation photonic technologies for detecting both natural phenomena, such as earthquakes, volcano activity, and anthropogenic events including construction activity or vehicular traffic.

Within this framework, one of our objectives is to develop a coherent optical frequency domain reflectometry (C-OFDR) [5]. Current systems are limited to approximately 100 km by the coherence length of the laser source.  Here, we take benefit from the low frequency noise laser source generated by REFIMEVE frequency reference in order to extend the sensing range. In our setup, the output of a low noise laser is frequency modulated and a fiber under test is studied in a Michelson interferometer configuration. By analyzing the Rayleigh backscattered signal along the fiber, the system enables detailed diagnostics of the fiber under test including the detection of localized fiber deformations, faulty connectors, attenuation variations, and disturbances induced by environmental vibrations. As a first demonstration, we tested a prototype over a long range fiber link made of laboratory spools extending up to 335 km. The system successfully identified the position of the optical amplifier and a PC connector placed at the end of the fiber with km scale spatial resolution. In addition, vibration induced perturbation was observed and is under study, highlighting the potential of this technique for seismic applications. In future work, we plan to deploy the C-OFDR system on the operational REFIMEVE fiber network to evaluate its performance under real field conditions. This approach positions C-OFDR as a powerful tool for telecommunication infrastructure monitoring and distributed geophysical sensing.  

References :

[1] G. Marra et al., Science 361 (2018), https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat4458

[2] REFIMEVE, https://www.refimeve.fr/en/homepage/

[3] M. B. K. Tønnes, PhD Thesis (2022), https://hal.science/tel-03984045v1

[4] SENSEI, https://senseiproject.eu/

[5] C. Liang et al., IEEE Access. 9 (2021), DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3061250

How to cite: Show, D., Dutta, B., Abdelhak, M., Lopez, O., Hilico, A., Amy-Klein, A., Chardonnet, C., Pottie, P.-E., and Cantin, E.: Long range Coherent-Optical Frequency Domain Reflectometry for large scale distributed sensing, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13083, 2026.

EGU26-13151 | Orals | SM3.4

Fiber optic cables (DAS) for seismic event detection – An underground case study 

Vincent Brémaud and Colin Madelaine

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), leveraging existing fiber optic infrastructure, represents a groundbreaking advancement in seismic monitoring. By converting telecommunication cables into dense arrays of virtual sensors, DAS enables continuous spatial coverage and enhanced sensitivity to seismic waves in remote or logistically constrained environments. This capability positions DAS as a complementary or alternative tool to traditional seismic networks, offering cost-effective, low-maintenance solutions for geophysical research and hazard monitoring.

This study focuses on the Premise-2 experiment, conducted at the Low-Noise Underground Laboratory (https://www.lsbb.eu/) in Rustrel, France, a site renowned for its low seismic noise. The experiment integrates active and passive seismic acquisitions, capturing both ambient noise and controlled seismic signals to assess DAS’s ability to detect and characterize events. Multiple fiber optic cable types and installation methods (laid on the ground, with sand bags, buried, or structurally attached) are evaluated to determine their impact on signal sensitivity, spatial resolution, and measurement robustness.

This study provides critical insights into optimal DAS deployment configurations for seismological applications while highlighting the challenges posed by large-scale data acquisition. The research underscores the need for advanced algorithms and specific workflows to fully exploit DAS’s potential. To characterized the events, we have used a workflow using automatic P and S arrival phases. We filtered these arrivals with an associator to select only detections that could be linked to an event. Then we tried different location algorithms to get a complete workflow from the acquisition to the location of the events.

How to cite: Brémaud, V. and Madelaine, C.: Fiber optic cables (DAS) for seismic event detection – An underground case study, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13151, 2026.

EGU26-13235 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Distributed Acoustic Sensing at the Engineering Scale: Experimental Insights from the PITOP Test Site 

Olga Nesterova, Luca Schenato, Alexis Constantinou, Thurian Le Dû, Fabio Meneghini, Andrea Travan, Cinzia Bellezza, Gwenola Michaud, Andrea Marzona, Alessandro Brovelli, Silvia Zampato, Giorgio Cassiani, Jacopo Boaga, and Ilaria Barone

The PITOP geophysical test site, operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS) in north-eastern Italy, provides a unique experimental environment for testing seismic acquisition technologies under realistic field conditions. Covering ~22,000 m², PITOP was established to support the development and validation of geophysical methods and instrumentation in both surface and borehole installations. Here, we evaluate PITOP’s potential for Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiments, focusing on small-scale seismic measurements relevant to urban settings and engineering applications. 

Five boreholes with distinct purposes and instrumentation are available at the PITOP site, including a water well (PITOP1), two 400-m-deep wells associated with geosteering research (PITOP2 and PITOP3), a 150-m-deep borehole permanently equipped with optical fibre for DAS measurements (PITOP4), and a recently drilled well dedicated to geoelectrical surveys (PITOP5). The site also hosts a surface-deployed fibre-optic cable, containing both linear and helicoidal fibers, and about 20 3C seismic nodes. Finally, several seismic sources are available, which are a borehole Sparker Pulse, suitable for crosshole VSP configurations, and two surface vibratory sources, the IVI MiniVib T-2500, which can generate sweeps in the 10–550 Hz frequency range, and the ElViS VII vibrator, designed for frequencies between 20 and 220 Hz.

We conducted three dedicated experiments:  (i) cross-hole measurements with sources in PITOP3 at depths of 10, 50, 75, and 100 m, and DAS recording in PITOP4; (ii) a vertical seismic profiling (VSP) survey using the MiniVib source close to the well head with DAS recording in PITOP4; and  (iii) recordings of the seismic wavefield generated by P- and S-wave vibratory sources using surface DAS arrays in linear and helicoidal configurations, together with co-located 3D geophones for comparison.

DAS data were acquired with multiple gauge lengths and acquisition settings. The resulting datasets enable a systematic evaluation of acquisition parameters selection and highlight processing strategies required for different DAS configurations. They provide a valuable basis for assessing optimal DAS acquisition strategies for small-scale seismic applications and for defining processing workflows adapted to diverse source and receiver geometries.

The present study is being carried out within the framework of the USES2 project, which receives funding from the EUROPEAN RESEARCH EXECUTIVE AGENCY (REA) under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 101072599.

This research has been supported by the Interdepartmental Research Center for Cultural Heritage CIBA (University of Padova) with the World Class Research Infrastructure (WCRI) SYCURI—SYnergic strategies for CUltural heritage at RIsk, funded by the University of Padova.

How to cite: Nesterova, O., Schenato, L., Constantinou, A., Le Dû, T., Meneghini, F., Travan, A., Bellezza, C., Michaud, G., Marzona, A., Brovelli, A., Zampato, S., Cassiani, G., Boaga, J., and Barone, I.: Distributed Acoustic Sensing at the Engineering Scale: Experimental Insights from the PITOP Test Site, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13235, 2026.

EGU26-13315 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Deep Learning-Based Earthquakes Localization at Campi Flegrei via Distributed Acoustic Sensing 

Miriana Corsaro, Léonard Seydoux, Gilda Currenti, Flavio Cannavò, Simone Palazzo, Martina Allegra, Philippe Jousset, Michele Prestifilippo, and Concetto Spampinato

The current phase of unrest of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), one of the most dangerous volcanic complexes in the world, requires increasingly rapid and high-resolution seismic monitoring solutions. In this context, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) has recently emerged as a highly innovative technology, enabling existing fiber-optic cables to be repurposed into ultra-dense seismic arrays capable of sampling the seismic wavefield with unprecedented spatial resolution.

In this study, we present a new earthquake-localization method that uses automatically identified P- and S-wave arrivals on DAS data to localize seismic events. Employing Transformer-based architectures designed to process DAS's high-dimensional strain data, our approach simultaneously estimates key source parameters, including hypocentral location, magnitude, and origin time. A comparative analysis against the official seismic catalogue reveals minimal residuals, validating the model's robustness. 

The model therefore represents a significant advancement, as it enables reliable earthquake localization in extremely short time frames using exclusively automatically picked data, while simultaneously overcoming the computational bottlenecks typical of traditional processing workflows. As a result, this methodology establishes a new benchmark for real-time monitoring of magmatic and hydrothermal systems, substantially contributing to improved seismic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Corsaro, M., Seydoux, L., Currenti, G., Cannavò, F., Palazzo, S., Allegra, M., Jousset, P., Prestifilippo, M., and Spampinato, C.: Deep Learning-Based Earthquakes Localization at Campi Flegrei via Distributed Acoustic Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13315, 2026.

EGU26-13382 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

Towards ambient noise tomography on long telecommunication cables: using DAS for characterisation of the seismo-acoustic soundscape in the Atlantic Ocean and Irish Sea 

Rosa Vergara González, Nicolas Luca Celli, Christopher J. Bean, Marco Ruffini, and Örn Jónsson

The oceans are a noisy place, where ships, waves, storms, currents, earthquakes and marine wildlife all leave their own seismo-acoustic signatures. Fibre sensing has the potential to allow researchers to utilise the thousands of sea-bottom telecommunication fibre-optic cables spread across the globe, and with them, we can record, characterise and monitor these signals from up close. However, at present sensing equipment limitations, lack of established fibre-sensing workflows and access to cables severely limit the use of this technology in the seas.

Here, we present and analyse Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) data newly recorded on long, telecom fibre-optic cables offshore through the east and west coasts of Ireland. The availability of these two different datasets allows us to compare different environments and physical phenomena across a large region. The eastern cable covers 118 km from Dublin, Ireland to Holyhead, Wales with 36 days of data recorded in Spring 2025, while the western one reaches 72 km offshore from Galway, with 60 days of data in Autumn 2025. These datasets form part of a much larger compendium, including data from approximately 300km of onshore fibre-optic cables between both shores. Thanks to the large cable lengths and long recording times, we observe a plethora of short-lived, high frequency signals such as ships, anthropogenic noise, and local earthquakes, as well as long-wavelength, long-period signals such as ocean storms and microseisms, tides, and teleseismic events.

To characterise observations in these noisy environments, we compare our observations with nearby land seismic stations and weather records to track storm systems and wave height. We identify and separate the different seismic and acoustic sources observed, resulting in a preliminary catalogue of dominant signal types observed along the cables. The results are utilised to highlight the differences between the two marine environments and separate marine, seismic and anthropic transient signals from ambient noise. This is key to improve our understanding of ocean processes and to build datasets suitable for deep Earth sensing through Ambient Noise Tomography. While our focus is seismic, characterising marine seismic and acoustic phenomena is key in applications well beyond this field, from telecommunication fibre cable safety, to marine biology and oceanographic applications.

How to cite: Vergara González, R., Celli, N. L., Bean, C. J., Ruffini, M., and Jónsson, Ö.: Towards ambient noise tomography on long telecommunication cables: using DAS for characterisation of the seismo-acoustic soundscape in the Atlantic Ocean and Irish Sea, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13382, 2026.

EGU26-13416 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

Temperature and strain monitoring in Reykjanes geothermal field, Iceland, using quasi-distributed fiber-optic sensing 

Julien Govoorts, Corentin Caudron, Jiaxuan Li, Haiyang Liao, Christophe Caucheteur, Yesim Çubuk-Sabuncu, Halldór Geirsson, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, Kristín Jónsdóttir, and Loic Peiffer

Since December 2023 and after 800 years of inactivity, recurrent volcanic eruptions are taking place at the Svartsengi volcanic system indicating the start of a new volcanic cycle. In contrast, the Reykjanes volcanic system, located to the west of Svartsengi, has remained dormant since the 13th century.  The Reykjanes geothermal area, in particular the Gunnuhver geothermal field, is located at the westernmost end of the Reykjanes Peninsula. This geothermal area is associated with the upflow of seawater-derived hydrothermal fluids and characterized by numerous geothermal features, including steam vents and steam-heated mud pools.

Since October 2022, this geothermal field has been continuously monitored using a variety of technologies to record parameters such as soil temperature, strain and electrical resistivity. The present study focuses primarily on the parameters gathered from August 2024 using the Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) technology, a point fiber-optic sensing approach. This technique utilizes wavelength-division multiplexing, meaning the fiber is capable of transmitting information at distinct wavelengths. Consequently, given that each FBG possesses its own wavelength, the fiber is transformed into a cost-effective and versatile quasi-distributed sensor.

Over the course of a year, the FBG interrogator deployed on-site has measured the wavelength changes at a sampling frequency ranging from 0.4Hz to 1Hz. These changes were recorded from 24 different temperature probes and 8 strain sensors both buried in-ground throughout the geothermal field. Most of the temperature sensors were installed in areas of the soil where no geothermal surface manifestation was present. These sensors recorded temperature changes primarily driven by variations in atmospheric temperature. In contrast, the remaining sensors were directly located in altered areas or close to steam vents. These sensors exhibit clear cooling patterns due to precipitation but do not show temperature changes that can be attributed to the eruption cycle. Additionally, the FBG temperature sensors allow the identification of fiber sections that are coupled to air temperature fluctuations along a telecom fiber deployed a few hundred meters north and monitored by a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) interrogator.

In addition to the temperature probes, the strain sensors have recorded signals ranging from periodic dynamic strain changes attributed to industrial processes, to static strain changes assigned to crustal deformation. On April 1, 2025, a volcanic eruption occurred in the Svartsengi volcanic system, resulting in strain variations observed 15 kilometers away from the eruption site using FBG and low-frequency components of DAS recordings. These variations were also observed in strain measurements obtained from permanent network GNSS stations. This experiment demonstrates the capacity and reliability of the FBG technology for monitoring temperature changes and deformation signals in an active geothermal environment.

How to cite: Govoorts, J., Caudron, C., Li, J., Liao, H., Caucheteur, C., Çubuk-Sabuncu, Y., Geirsson, H., Hjörleifsdóttir, V., Jónsdóttir, K., and Peiffer, L.: Temperature and strain monitoring in Reykjanes geothermal field, Iceland, using quasi-distributed fiber-optic sensing, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13416, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13416, 2026.

EGU26-13921 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Seismic Characterisation of an Arctic Glacier 

Tora Haugen Myklebust, Martin Landrø, Robin André Rørstadbotnen, and Calder Robinson

In recent years, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) has emerged as a cost-effective seismic monitoring tool for cryosphere research. Compared to conventional geophone arrays, the DAS system is compact, easy to transport, and can be rapidly deployed over large distances in glaciated environments.

Previous studies have demonstrated that DAS is a useful tool for ice-sheet imaging and monitoring glacier dynamics. For example, using borehole DAS in conjunction with surface explosives (e.g., Booth et al., 2022; Fitchner et al., 2023) or passive recordings using surface DAS (e.g., Walter et al., 2020; Gräff et al, 2025). Significant progress has been made in applying surface DAS for active marine subsurface imaging (e.g., Pedersen et al., 2022; Raknes et al., 2025). We extend this approach to active englacial and subglacial imaging on Slakbreen, Svalbard.

During a multi-geophysical field campaign in March 2025, we acquired seismic data using surface explosives along an approximately 2 km fibre co-located with a vertical-component geophone array. We process different reflected modes (PP and PS) recorded on the fibre and benchmark the imaging results against the equivalent PP-image from the geophone array. We evaluate differences in wavefield sensitivity across the three datasets and we will present how these can be used to characterise the state of the cryosphere and deeper sedimentary successions.

Despite the relative immaturity of DAS for glacier imaging and current limitations of the processing workflow, our results clearly establish surface DAS as a viable monitoring tool for seismic imaging of the cryosphere and as a potential enabler of large-scale seismic monitoring of glaciers and the subsurface.

 

References:

Booth, A. D., P. Christoffersen, A. Pretorius, J. Chapman, B. Hubbard, E. C. Smith, S. de Ridder, A. Nowacki, B. P. Lipovsky, and M. Denolle, 2022, Characterising sediment thickness beneath a greenlandic outlet glacier using distributed acoustic sensing: preliminary observations and progress towards an efficient machine learning approach: Annals of Glaciology, 63(87-89):79–82.                                                                                                                                                   

Fichtner, A., C. Hofstede, L. Gebraad, A. Zunino, D. Zigone, and O. Eisen, 2023, Borehole fibre-optic seismology inside the northeast greenland ice stream: Geo-physical Journal International, 235(3):2430–2441.

Gräff, D., B. P. Lipovsky, A. Vieli, A. Dachauer, R. Jackson, D. Farinotti, J. Schmale, J.-P. Ampuero, E. Berg, A. Dannowski, et al., 2025, Calving-driven fjord dynamics resolved by seafloor fibre sensing: Nature, 644(8076):404–412.

Pedersen, A., H. Westerdahl, M. Thompson, C. Sagary, and J. Brenne, 2022, A north sea case study: Does das have potential for permanent reservoir monitoring? In Proceedings of the 83rd EAGE Annual Conference & Exhibition, pages 1–5. European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers.

Raknes, E. B., B. Foseide, and G. Jansson, 2025, Acquisition and imaging of ocean-bottom fiber-optic distributed acoustic sensing data using a full-shot carpet from a conventional 3d survey: Geophysics, 90(5):P99–P112.

Walter, F., D. Gräff, F. Lindner, P. Paitz, M. Köpfli, M. Chmiel, and A. Fichtner,2020, Distributed acoustic sensing of microseismic sources and wave propagation in glaciated terrain: Nature communications, 11(1):2436.

How to cite: Myklebust, T. H., Landrø, M., Rørstadbotnen, R. A., and Robinson, C.: Seismic Characterisation of an Arctic Glacier, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13921, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13921, 2026.

EGU26-14230 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Unveiling type of fiber and coupling conditions effects on geophysical DAS measurements, results from underground experiments 

Vanessa Carrillo-Barra, Diego Mercerat, Vincent Brémaud, Anthony Sladen, Olivier Sèbe, Amaury Vallage, and Jean-Paul Ampuero

Optical fiber measurements have been demonstrated to be useful in assessing geophysical near-surface parameters and in detecting seismological events in newly accessible regions (e.g. cities, ocean floor, highways) by leveraging the existing fiber-optic infrastructure. In particular, laser interferometry performed with DAS systems (Distributed Acoustic Sensing) allows measuring the cable axial strain related to passing seismo-acoustic waves, at any point along the fiber and over tens of kilometers of cable.

However, compared to traditional seismic sensors the instrumental response of DAS remains unclear, and there is in particular a critical need to better understand how the measurements are influenced by the nature of the fiber optic cable and its coupling to the ground or medium under study. To explore this question, we present results from two active seismic campaigns carried out in the low-noise  underground tunnel LSBB (Laboratoire Souterrain à Bas Bruit), in southeastern France.

We recorded multiple active sources (TNT detonations and hammer shots) by a 10km and 2km long underground optical fiber set-ups and with conventional seismic sensors as well. We tested along both campaigns different optical fiber cable designs and different types of coupling conditions (sealed, sandbags weighted, freely posed) installed in parallel. This experimental setup provides a unique opportunity to examine in detail and quantify the possible variations in the strain signals recovered from DAS data.

Preliminary observations reveal significant discrepancies in the recorded data depending on the coupling conditions. The characteristics of the deployed source result in a signal that is primarily concentrated in the high-frequency range, for which the sealed fiber does not necessarily exhibit a significantly improved response. Additionally, the acoustic wave generated by the hammer-shot echo, propagating through the air, is strongly amplified in all cables covered by sandbags. We propose that the sandbags increase the interaction area between that signal and the cables, thereby enhancing reverberation.

Furthermore, we observe systematic differences in the maximum amplitudes recorded by the different cables tested, with the telecom cable consistently exhibiting lower amplitudes than other specialized cables, suggesting a lower sensitivity. However, this reduction is relatively modest, and when combined with the substantially lower cost of telecom cables, indicates that they remain a cost-efficient alternative for certain experiments. Additional observations and detailed analyses from this study will be presented.

 

Keywords: Coupling, fiber optics, DAS measurements, strain rate, active seismic, LSBB.

How to cite: Carrillo-Barra, V., Mercerat, D., Brémaud, V., Sladen, A., Sèbe, O., Vallage, A., and Ampuero, J.-P.: Unveiling type of fiber and coupling conditions effects on geophysical DAS measurements, results from underground experiments, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14230, 2026.

EGU26-15142 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Toward Global-Scale Submarine Fiber Sensing: Early Results from Multispan DAS at the OOI Regional Cabled Array 

Zoe Krauss, Bradley Lipovsky, Mikael Mazur, William Wilcock, Nicolas Fontaine, Roland Ryf, Alex Rose, William Dientsfrey, Shima Abadi, Marine Denolle, and Renate Hartog

A recently developed multispan distributed acoustic sensing (multispan-DAS) technique from Nokia Bell Labs enables strain measurements along submarine fiber-optic cables across multiple repeater-separated spans. By leveraging the high-loss loopback couplers within optical repeaters, this technique overcomes the long-standing limitation of conventional DAS to the first span of a repeated cable, typically < 100 km offshore. Dense, continuous arrays of seafloor strain sensors can now extend to hundreds or thousands of kilometers. This technique has been used to successfully record the 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka earthquake and tsunami at teleseismic range with a spatial resolution of ~100 m across 4400 km of a repeated submarine cable.

In November 2025, the multispan-DAS system from Nokia Bell Labs was deployed for three months on both repeated submarine cables of the Ocean Observatories Initiative Regional Cabled Array (OOI RCA) offshore Oregon. The deployment traverses the Cascadia subduction zone forearc and extends approximately 500 km offshore to Axial Seamount. During this period, the first span of the southern cable was simultaneously interrogated using a multiplexed conventional DAS unit, while data continued to stream from co-located cabled seismometers, hydrophones, and other oceanographic instruments on the OOI RCA.

The multispan-DAS system recorded a regional earthquake beyond the first repeater of both cables during testing as well as the ambient seafloor seismic wavefield, demonstrating sensitivity to a broad range of seismic, oceanographic, and acoustic signals. These observations provide a unique opportunity to directly compare multispan-DAS measurements with conventional DAS and established seafloor instrumentation across a large spatial extent. The resulting dataset will be publicly released following documentation and quality control. We will present preliminary results characterizing the noise floor, sensitivity, and signal fidelity of multispan-DAS relative to co-located sensors, and examine the consistency of observed seismic and oceanographic signals across measurement modalities. These results will highlight the potential of multispan-DAS for applications including routine earthquake monitoring, earthquake early warning, and broader seafloor observation, and represent an important step toward establishing this technique as a new tool for the seismological and oceanographic communities.

How to cite: Krauss, Z., Lipovsky, B., Mazur, M., Wilcock, W., Fontaine, N., Ryf, R., Rose, A., Dientsfrey, W., Abadi, S., Denolle, M., and Hartog, R.: Toward Global-Scale Submarine Fiber Sensing: Early Results from Multispan DAS at the OOI Regional Cabled Array, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15142, 2026.

EGU26-15227 | Posters on site | SM3.4

Enhancing Earthquake Location in the Central Apennines (Italy): A Hybrid Approach Combining Arrivals from Line-Sensor Telecom Fiber Interferometry and Traditional Point-sensors 

Diana Latorre, Cecilia Clivati, André Herrero, Anthony Lomax, Raffaele Di Stefano, Simone Donadello, Aladino Govoni, Maurizio Vassallo, and Lucia Margheriti

The integration of existing telecommunication fiber-optic infrastructure into seismic monitoring networks offers a transformative opportunity to densify observations in seismically active regions. We present the results of a multi-year monitoring experiment (2021–2026) utilizing a 39-km telecom fiber link from the Italian telecommunication company Open Fiber between Ascoli Piceno and Teramo in the Central Apennines, Italy. The system employs an ultra stable laser to measure seismic-induced deformation of the fiber, operating on a dedicated wavelength in coexistence with commercial data traffic.

A significant challenge in utilizing fiber-optic data for earthquake location is the transition from traditional point-sensor geometry to distributed sensing. To address this, we implemented a hybrid localization approach using a modified version of the NonLinLoc (NLL) algorithm. We move beyond traditional discrete measurements (point sensors) by treating the cable as a continuous "line sensor." Following the NLL algorithm, the most effective strategy is translating both point and line geometries into a unified framework of 3D travel-time maps. Once the sensors are translated into these maps, their combined use for location becomes independent of the sensor type, allowing for a seamless merging of traditional seismic station data and fiber-optic pickings. 

We applied this methodology to the real seismic catalog recorded from the fiber's installation in mid 2021 until January 2026 in the Ascoli-Teramo area, a region where the Italian seismic network is relatively sparse. Specifically, we analyzed signals from: 1) several small seismic sequences occurring at short distances (up to approximately 20 km) from the fiber cable, including the Civitella del Tronto (TE) sequence that followed a Mw 3.9 event (September 22, 2022); and 2) more distant earthquakes (ranging from approximately 20 to 50 km from the fiber) with local magnitudes exceeding ML 2.5, distributed along the Central Apennines axis. For events where the fiber signal allowed for the correct identification of P- and S-wave arrival times, we applied the NLL algorithm using the integrated network. In this work, we present several of these examples and associated tests to discuss how the inclusion of fiber-derived arrival times can provide further hypocentral constraints. This study aims to highlight the scalability of fiber interferometry combined with non-linear inversion as a robust tool for seismic surveillance in populated and high-risk tectonic environments.

How to cite: Latorre, D., Clivati, C., Herrero, A., Lomax, A., Di Stefano, R., Donadello, S., Govoni, A., Vassallo, M., and Margheriti, L.: Enhancing Earthquake Location in the Central Apennines (Italy): A Hybrid Approach Combining Arrivals from Line-Sensor Telecom Fiber Interferometry and Traditional Point-sensors, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15227, 2026.

EGU26-16522 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

Detecting Microseismic Events Using Cross-Fault Borehole DAS 

Chih-Chieh Tseng, Hao Kuo-Chen, Li-Yu Kan, Sheng-Yan Pan, Wei-Fang Sun, Chin-Shang Ku, and Ching-Chou Fu

Microseismic events account for the majority of seismicity, however, sparse station spacing hinders the detection of such small events. In recent decades, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has shown its power to provide a denser spatial sampling in an array sense, to resolve weak signals that are often missed by conventional seismometers. In eastern Taiwan, the Chihshang fault plays a key role in accommodating deformation along the Longitudinal Valley fault system, where frequent small earthquakes and fault creep occur. In this study, we develop a new workflow for microseismic event detection by integrating borehole DAS data with the deep-learning-based automatic phase picking model PhaseNet. An event is declared when more than 75% of channels record P-wave picks and more than 30% record S-wave picks within a 1-s time window. We analyzed three months of DAS data from March to July 2025. As a result, we identified approximately twice as many events as those reported in a deep-learning-based earthquake catalog constructed using only surface seismic stations. These results suggest that borehole DAS provides an effective complementary constraint for detecting earthquake-generated wave trains. This processing workflow can significantly improve the detection capability for microseismic events, leading to higher seismic catalog completeness and finer fault structure near the Chihshang region.

How to cite: Tseng, C.-C., Kuo-Chen, H., Kan, L.-Y., Pan, S.-Y., Sun, W.-F., Ku, C.-S., and Fu, C.-C.: Detecting Microseismic Events Using Cross-Fault Borehole DAS, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16522, 2026.

EGU26-16913 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

Cross-validating Distributed Acoustic Sensing and Seismic Records for Shallow Ground Motion and Near-Surface Properties 

Marco Pascal Roth, Xiang Chen, Gian Maria Bocchini, and Rebecca M Harrington

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) offers dense spatial sampling of ground motion and has the potential to perform detailed seismic monitoring and constrain shallow velocity structure. In this study, we analyze ground motion recorded by broadband seismometers and a fiber-optic interrogator of two shallow tectonic earthquakes in the Roerdalen region (The Netherlands–Germany border) with local magnitudes ML 2.2 (2025-09-09) and ML 1.9 (2025-09-15) and hypocentral depths of ~15 km to quantify the differences in sensitivity and magnitude estimates from each type of instrumentation. The Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) recordings consist of ground strain sampled at 250 Hz on a 30 km telecommunications dark-fiber with a channel spacing of 5 m and a gauge length of 50 m. Seismometer recordings consist of ground velocity sampled at 100 Hz on a Trillium Compact 20 s seismometer that has a flat frequency response up to ~100 Hz. Both types of sensors recorded the earthquakes with a minimum epicentral distance of ~20 and 10 km, respectively. We will present results showing the differences in frequency sensitivity, conversions to ground displacement, and estimated magnitudes, as well as an interpretation of differences based on the shallow ground velocity. 

We first convert DAS recordings that are initially measured in strain to ground displacement using a semblance-based approach, as well conventional seismic recordings initially recorded in velocity. We make a quantitative comparison of waveform characteristics, including amplitude-frequency dependence and its variability in space for point-wise seismic sensor measurements vs. DAS measurements. We will present an interpretation of the results based on the context of geological setting to identify spatial variations that cannot be resolved by the sparse seismic network alone. As DAS measurements reveal significant lateral variability in ground motion amplitudes that suggest a strong influence of near-surface conditions (density) and/or local coupling effects, we will also quantify the relative influence of each using a comparison of strain and converted ground displacement. In addition, we explore approaches to estimate earthquake magnitude from DAS data by relating observed strain amplitudes to ground-motion parameters derived from the co-located seismometer. Preliminary results suggest that DAS-based observations capture the relative scaling between the two events and show promise for magnitude estimation when calibrated against conventional seismic sensors. Our findings demonstrate the value of DAS for high-resolution observations of near surface properties and their influence on earthquake waveforms.  They also highlight the potential of DAS to complement existing seismic networks for monitoring small-magnitude earthquakes.  

How to cite: Roth, M. P., Chen, X., Bocchini, G. M., and Harrington, R. M.: Cross-validating Distributed Acoustic Sensing and Seismic Records for Shallow Ground Motion and Near-Surface Properties, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16913, 2026.

EGU26-17223 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Reimagining Seismic Array Processing with Fibre-Optic DAS: The NORFOX Array 

Antoine Turquet, Andreas Wuestefeld, Alan Baird, Kamran Iranpour, and Ravn Rydtun

NORFOX is a purpose-built fibre-optic Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) installation located in southeastern Norway, approximately 150 km north of Oslo. Beyond its primary function of monitoring earthquakes and explosions, the system captures a broad range of other signals, including aircraft, thunder, and atmospheric phenomena. A key advantage of NORFOX is its overlap with the co-located NORES seismometer array, which enables direct calibration of DAS measurements against conventional seismic recordings and supports method development under well-constrained ground-truth conditions. In this contribution, we introduce the NORFOX infrastructure and array layout, discuss key design choices, and summarize practical strengths and limitations using representative examples.

NORFOX is additionally equipped with all-sky cameras operated by Norsk Meteor Nettverk for meteor monitoring, which also capture nearby lightning activity. Lightning locations provide independent timing and spatial context that help interpretation coincident acoustic signatures observed on the fibre. Together with weather information, noise-floor characterization, and optical monitoring, these observations provide a benchmark dataset for both existing and future DAS installations and calibration

We also present in-house approaches to reduce noise, understanding signals, strategies on managing data volumes and edge-computing. Furthermore, we show and interpret signals from nearby quarry blasts, regional earthquakes, thunderstorms, and aircraft. Finally, we demonstrate and evaluate DAS array-processing methodologies for earthquake and explosion monitoring at NORFOX. Overall, dedicated research fibre arrays such as NORFOX provide a controlled environment to develop, benchmark, and calibrate DAS-based monitoring workflows in combination with co-located seismic instrumentation.

How to cite: Turquet, A., Wuestefeld, A., Baird, A., Iranpour, K., and Rydtun, R.: Reimagining Seismic Array Processing with Fibre-Optic DAS: The NORFOX Array, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17223, 2026.

EGU26-17496 | ECS | Orals | SM3.4

Privacy Concerns of DAS: Eavesdropping using Neural Network Transcription 

Jack Lee Smith, Karen Lythgoe, Andrew Curtis, Harry Whitelam, Dominic Seager, Jessica Johnson, and Mohammad Belal

Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has transformed geophysical, environmental, and infrastructure monitoring. However, the increasing bandwidth and sensitivity of modern interrogators now extend into the audio range, introducing a material privacy risk. Here we demonstrate, through in-situ experiments on live fibre deployments, that human speech, music, and other acoustic signals can be under certain acquisition conditions.

We show that intelligible speech can be accurately recovered and automatically transcribed using neural networks. Experiments were conducted on both linear and spooled fibre geometries, deployed as part of an ongoing geophysical survey. We find that coiled layouts, which are common in access networks (e.g., slack loops or storage spools), exhibit enhanced sensitivity to incident acoustic waves relative to linear layouts. Modelling indicates this arises from increased broadside sensitivity and reduced destructive interference for longer wavelength acoustic fields over the gauge length. We systematically assess how acquisition parameters, such as source-fibre offset, influence signal‑to‑noise ratio, spectral fidelity, and speech intelligibility of recorded audio. We further show that neural network based denoising strategies improves intelligibility and fidelity of recorded audio, thereby exacerbating privacy concerns.

These findings demonstrate that appropriate interrogation of existing fibre infrastructure - including fibre‑to‑the‑premises links, smart-city infrastructure, and research cables – can function as pervasive, passive wide-area acoustic receivers, creating a pathway for inadvertent or malicious eavesdropping. We discuss practical mitigation strategies spanning survey design, interrogation configuration, and data governance, and argue that the incorporation of privacy‑by‑design into deployment and processing is crucial to leverage the unique benefits of DAS while managing emerging ethical and legal risks.

How to cite: Smith, J. L., Lythgoe, K., Curtis, A., Whitelam, H., Seager, D., Johnson, J., and Belal, M.: Privacy Concerns of DAS: Eavesdropping using Neural Network Transcription, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17496, 2026.

EGU26-17601 | Posters on site | SM3.4

Ambient signals analysis and cable coupling characterisation from a DAS experiment offshore South Brittany 

Florian Le Pape, Stephan Ker, Shane Murphy, Philippe Schnurle, Mikael Evain, Pascal Pelleau, Alexis Constantinou, and Patrick Jousset

As fibre-sensing measurements on submarine fibre optic cables become more widely used in geophysical studies, new challenges arise that demand a deeper understanding of the collected data. In particular, characterisation of cable coupling to the seafloor as well as the response of local sediment under the cables is needed for a better quantification of external physical phenomena by fibre-sensing measurements.

FiberSCOPE is a research project aiming to implement an intelligent seabed monitoring system for studies in seismology, oceanography and the positioning of acoustic manmade sources (ships, AUVs, etc.) using existing submarine fiber-optic cables. One of the main objectives of the project is to define tools for remote evaluation of fibre optic cable coupling with the seabed using both Brillouin Optical Time Domain Reflectometry (BOTDR) and Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) measurements of ambient noise.

Within the project’s framework, passive and active seismic experiments were performed during March-April 2025 offshore south Brittany. The experiment included acquiring DAS measurements on the electro-optic cable connecting mainland France to Groix island, combined with the deployment of 10 seismic nodes near the cable. Preliminary results show that although ocean waves dominate the DAS signals, ocean wave induced microseisms events can be extracted as they fluctuate over the 18 days’ of the passive acquisition. Interestingly, despite the short distance covered by the offshore portion of the cable, spatial variations of those events are also observed and seem consistent between cable and nodes measurements. Finally, both ocean waves and microseism signals are used to further quantify the cable coupling with the seafloor and cable response connected to changes in seafloor structure.

How to cite: Le Pape, F., Ker, S., Murphy, S., Schnurle, P., Evain, M., Pelleau, P., Constantinou, A., and Jousset, P.: Ambient signals analysis and cable coupling characterisation from a DAS experiment offshore South Brittany, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17601, 2026.

EGU26-18270 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

Assessing the Seismic Sensitivity on a Submarine Optical Fiber Link between Malta and Catania (Sicily, Italy) 

Daniele Caruana, Matthew Agius, André Xuereb, Cecilia Clivati, Simone Donadello, Kristian Grixti, and Irena Schulten

Submarine regions remain sparsely instrumented, limiting the spatial coverage of seismic monitoring in offshore environments. Recent studies have shown that optical fibers, including those actively used for telecommunications, can detect ground motion through laser interferometry. We present an ongoing evaluation of the seismic sensitivity of a 260 km optical fiber link between Malta and Catania, predominantly submerged in the Ionian Sea and continuously carrying internet traffic.

The optical-fiber recordings were analysed for signals corresponding to the arrival times of ~1500 earthquakes listed in the INGV catalogue between January 2023 and March 2025. The waveforms were manually inspected for seismic arrivals and compared to seismic data recorded on nearby land stations on Malta and Sicily. Earthquakes ranging from magnitude 1.4 to 7.9 originating from distance of 3 to 16,000 km were successfully observed. Each event was assigned a category according to signal clarity and confidence, ranging from clearly visible arrivals (category A) to non-detectable signals (category E). Preliminary results indicate that <10% of events fall into category A, 10-15% in category B, 20-25% in category C, 20-25% in category D, and >30% in category E, providing an initial characterisation of the optical-fiber cable’s sensitivity. While a majority of observations fall within lower quality categories (D-E), at least 35% of the analysed events remain robustly identifiable, highlighting the contribution of the submarine fiber to existing land-based seismic networks and extending observational coverage in submarine regions. The sensitivity of the fiber strongly depends on the earthquake magnitude-distance relationship, as expected. We compare our results with previously reported measurements on terrestrial fibers (Donadello, et al., 2024), and show that the Malta-Catania submarine cable can be a reliable new seismic tool for a submarine environment, although recording fewer high-confidence events than onshore systems.

Noise in the fiber exhibits correlations with wind and with daytime anthropogenic activity. This reduces the signal-to-noise ratio and limits the detectability of earthquakes with M<2. Ongoing data acquisition will further refine sensitivity estimates and improve the characterisation of the fiber’s seismic performance.

This study is part of the Horizon Europe–funded SENSEI project, which aims to transform fibre-optic communication networks into distributed sensors for detecting environmental and geophysical signals, improving monitoring and early warning across Europe (Project ID 101189545).

How to cite: Caruana, D., Agius, M., Xuereb, A., Clivati, C., Donadello, S., Grixti, K., and Schulten, I.: Assessing the Seismic Sensitivity on a Submarine Optical Fiber Link between Malta and Catania (Sicily, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18270, 2026.

EGU26-19501 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.4

 Investigating subsea cable sensing for monitoring of marine life, detection of earthquakes and tsunamis with Research and Education network infrastructure 

Shima Ebrahimi, Layla Loffredo, Alexander van den Hil, and Richa Malhotra

Recent advances in fibre-optic sensing enable subsea telecommunication cables to function as large-scale, distributed environmental sensors. Techniques such as Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), State of Polarisation (SOP), and interferometry transform optical fibres into continuous arrays capable of detecting seismic, acoustic, and environmental signals, offering a complementary, future-proof  approach to sparsely deployed subsea instruments. This study, conducted by SURF, the Dutch National Research and Education Network (NREN), assesses the feasibility of leveraging existing and future subsea fibre-optic network infrastructure for scientific sensing within the research ecosystem. The analysis is based on an extensive data collection effort, including 55 semi-structured interviews with international experts across geoscience, marine science, networking, and technology domains, as well as a targeted survey of research institutions, which received 20 responses from 42 invited experts. Results indicate that dry-plant sensing techniques are sufficiently mature for near-term applications, with DAS enabling kilometre-scale seismic and acoustic monitoring, while SOP and interferometry support long-range sensing over thousands of kilometres. Wet-plant approaches, including SMART cables and Fiber Bragg Grating sensors, provide high-precision measurements at extreme depths but remain limited to new cable deployments due to cost and coordination requirements. Strong alignment is observed with current needs in seismology and geophysics, particularly for offshore seismic monitoring and subsurface deformation studies, while applications in oceanography and marine biology remain exploratory. Data volume, standardisation, and real-time processing emerge as key challenges. Research networking organisations play a critical role in enabling scalable, network-centric earth and ocean observation.

How to cite: Ebrahimi, S., Loffredo, L., van den Hil, A., and Malhotra, R.:  Investigating subsea cable sensing for monitoring of marine life, detection of earthquakes and tsunamis with Research and Education network infrastructure, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19501, 2026.

EGU26-20683 | Orals | SM3.4

Distributed acoustic fibre sensing for large scientific infrastructures: ocean microseism at the European XFEL 

Celine Hadziioannou, Erik Genthe, Svea Kreutzer, Holger Schlarb, Markus Hoffmann, Oliver Gerberding, and Katharina-Sophie Isleif and the the WAVE initiative

The WAVE seismic network is a dense, multi-instrument monitoring system deployed on a scientific campus in Hamburg, Germany. It combines seismometers, geophones, and a 19 km distributed acoustic sensing fiber loop installed in existing telecommunication infrastructure. The network covers large-scale research facilities including the European X-ray Free-Electron Laser (EuXFEL) and particle accelerators at DESY. Its primary goal is to characterise natural and anthropogenic ground vibrations and to quantify how these signals couple into ultra-precise measurement infrastructures that are limited by environmental noise. Beyond local applications, WAVE serves as a testbed for fibre-optic sensing concepts relevant to fundamental physics, including seismic and strain monitoring for gravitational wave detection.

The EuXFEL is a femtosecond X-ray light source designed for ultrafast imaging and spectroscopy. Its performance depends critically on precise timing and synchronisation of the electron bunches along the linear accelerator. Measurements of bunch arrival times reveal significant noise contributions in the 0.05–0.5 Hz frequency band, with peak-to-peak timing jitter of up to 25 femtoseconds. Using distributed acoustic sensing data, we demonstrate that this jitter is largely explained by secondary ocean-generated microseism, which is identified as a significant limiting factor for stable, high-precision XFEL operation in the sub-Hz regime. 

To assess the potential for prediction and mitigation, we investigate whether ocean wave activity in the North Atlantic can be used to anticipate microseismic signals observed at the EuXFEL site. Output from the WAVEWATCH III ocean wave model is used to generate synthetic Rayleigh wave spectrograms with the WMSAN framework. These are compared to seismic observations at the EuXFEL injector. By subdividing the North Atlantic into source regions, we evaluate their relative contributions to the observed seismic wavefield. While absolute amplitude prediction remains challenging, the modelling reproduces key spectral characteristics and temporal variability.

Our results demonstrate that combining dense fibre-optic sensing with physics-based ocean wave modelling provides a framework to characterise microseismic noise and assess its limiting impact on high-precision experiments. This approach supports noise mitigation efforts at high-precision accelerator facilities and is directly relevant to future ground-based gravitational wave detectors.

How to cite: Hadziioannou, C., Genthe, E., Kreutzer, S., Schlarb, H., Hoffmann, M., Gerberding, O., and Isleif, K.-S. and the the WAVE initiative: Distributed acoustic fibre sensing for large scientific infrastructures: ocean microseism at the European XFEL, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20683, 2026.

EGU26-21683 | Posters on site | SM3.4

Leveraging Railway Fiber-Optic Networks with DAS: Multi-Scale Opportunities 

Pascal Edme, Daniel Bowden, Frederick Massin, Anne Obermann, sanket Bajad, John Clinton, and James Fern

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) enables the acquisition of seismic data with unrivalled spatio-temporal resolution over very large distances. Railway fiber-optic networks, originally deployed for telecommunications, offer cost-effective opportunities to monitor and characterize the subsurface at multiple scales. Here, we present a project conducted with the Swiss Federal Railways (SBB) involving the interrogation of dark fibers running along two perpendicular railway tracks, each approximately 40 km long. Data were acquired over three months using a dual-channel Sintela Onyx interrogator, with variable acquisition setups (spatial sampling, gauge length, and sampling frequency) tailored to different scientific objectives described below.

The primary objective was to assess the feasibility of using pre-existing telecommunications fibers for structural track-bed monitoring, specifically shallow subsurface Vs characterization through inversion of Rayleigh-wave dispersion curves (MASW). This requires high spatial sampling and short gauge length (3 m and 6 m, respectively) to capture short wavelengths. Several ambient noise interferometry strategies were tested, including stacking (1) all available time windows with various preprocessing schemes, (2) only time windows exhibiting strong directional wavefields, and (3) a coherent-source subsampling approach based on a Symmetric Variational Autoencoder to identify time windows contributing the most useful seismic energy. Unsurprisingly, trains constitute the most energetic and reliable seismic sources, from which dense Vs profiles can be derived, demonstrating the effectiveness of both the processing and inversion workflows.

Beyond shallow characterization, the experiment also yielded valuable data to complement dense nodal arrays deployed near Lavey-les-Bains, a site of significant geothermal interest and complex geological structure. The main objectives in this context are to (1) help characterizing the subsurface over the first kilometers, (2) investigate its relationship to geothermal circulation, (3) evaluate the joint use of dense nodal and DAS data for imaging, and (4) establish a high-quality, open-access dataset to support the development of next-generation passive imaging methodologies.

Finally, at an even larger scale, the experiment provided the opportunity to explore how DAS data can be leveraged within the operational Swiss Seismological Service (SED) network and to assess whether DAS can augment standard seismicity catalogues. Lower-resolution data (100 m spatial sampling, 200 Hz sampling frequency) were streamed and converted in real time into standard seismic formats (miniSEED and StationXML), demonstrating the feasibility of integrating DAS data into SeisComP for both automatic and manual processing.

We will present the dataset along with key results relevant to the three purposes outlined above.

We acknowledge Allianz Fahrbahn (grant agreement No. 100 072 202) for enabling this study.

How to cite: Edme, P., Bowden, D., Massin, F., Obermann, A., Bajad, S., Clinton, J., and Fern, J.: Leveraging Railway Fiber-Optic Networks with DAS: Multi-Scale Opportunities, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21683, 2026.

EGU26-8920 | Posters on site | SM3.5

Towards universal PGD scaling law derived from GNSS and seismic data 

Jan Kapłon, Iwona Kudłacik, and Mattia Crespi

Peak Ground Displacement (PGD) plays a fundamental role in the description of strong ground motion and is increasingly important in earthquake early warning systems for real-time estimation of earthquake source parameters, including moment magnitude estimation. In this study, we aim to derive a universal PGD scaling law based on the integration and joint analysis of seismic and GNSS observations, under the explicit assumption that a physically consistent PGD scaling relationship should be valid across different sensor types. In other words, the same PGD scaling law is expected to describe observations from both GNSS receivers and seismometers, providing a unified framework for rapid moment magnitude estimation.
The dataset consists of more than 20,000 observations from strong motion sensors - ESM FlatFiles (Lanzano et al. 2019) and over 3,000 observations from GNSS receivers (Ruhl et al., 2018; DeGrande & Crowell, 2025; INGV, GEONET (GSI)), all thoroughly checked and rigorously filtered to remove erroneous and unreliable records. The data cover 1,802 earthquakes that occurred between 1969 and 2025, with moment magnitudes ranging from Mw 3.0 to 9.1. To our knowledge, this is the largest dataset ever used for the estimation of PGD scaling relationships.
The analysis is based on the PGD functional form originally proposed by Crowell et al. (2013), which serves as a reference model. In addition, two alternative PGD scaling models are introduced and evaluated. Special attention is given to the treatment of observational uncertainties: several observation-weighting strategies are tested, and systematic issues inherent in commonly used PGD weighting approaches are identified and discussed. The results demonstrate that the choice of weighting scheme has a significant impact on the estimated scaling parameters.
By combining high-quality seismic and GNSS data over an unprecedented range of magnitudes and distances, and by enforcing a unified description across sensor types, this study provides new constraints on PGD scaling behaviour and highlights methodological aspects that are critical for the development of robust, physically consistent, and transferable PGD scaling laws. The proposed approach delivers the moment magnitudes (Mw) from GNSS and/or strong motion sensors PGD observations with the average bias less than 0.02 and 0.23 RMSE. 

Crowell, B. W., D. Melgar, Y. Bock, J. S. Haase, and J. Geng (2013). Earthquake magnitude scaling using seismogeodetic data, Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 6089–6094, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058391

DeGrande, J. V., and B. W. Crowell (2025). A Combined PGD–PGV Scaling Law with Rproxy Distance for the G-FAST Earthquake Early Warning Module, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. XX, 1–16, doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120250168

Lanzano, G., Sgobba, S., Luzi, L. et al. (2019). The pan-European Engineering Strong Motion (ESM) flatfile: compilation criteria and data statistics. Bull Earthquake Eng 17, 561–582. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0480-z

Ruhl, C. J., Melgar, D., Geng,et al. (2018). A Global Database of Strong‐Motion Displacement GNSS Recordings and an Example Application to PGD Scaling. Seismological Research Letters 90 (1): 271–279. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180177

How to cite: Kapłon, J., Kudłacik, I., and Crespi, M.: Towards universal PGD scaling law derived from GNSS and seismic data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8920, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8920, 2026.

EGU26-10187 | Posters on site | SM3.5

Multi-Scale On-Fault Seismic Monitoring at the Bedretto Underground Laboratory: An Operational Framework 

Frederick Massin, Luca Scarabello, Martina Rosskopf, John Clinton, Men-Andrin Meier, Valentin Gischig, Mathilde Wimez, Katinka Tuinstra, Pascal Edme, Antonio Rinaldi, Giulio Poggiali, Elisa Tinti, Mariano Supino, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer and the BULGG team

The Bedretto Underground Laboratory for Geosciences and Geoenergies (BULGG, ETH Zurich) operates a dense, multi-scale seismic monitoring framework for on-fault observation of induced seismicity during underground stimulation experiments. The system integrates permanent seismic stations (500 to 10k samples per second, sps), high-rate experimental deployments (up to 200k sps), and distributed acoustic sensing (DAS; up to 4000 sps), providing high spatial and temporal data coverage at the reservoir and local scale. This contribution documents real-time seismic monitoring during underground experiments and the generation of associated post-processed earthquake catalogues.

The combined instrumentation is used for monitoring of hydraulic stimulation and geothermal project experiments, including the Fault Activation and Earthquake Rupture (FEAR) ERC project and Geothermal Test-Bed (GTB) activities. Permanent monitoring provides manually reviewed earthquake locations and magnitudes in a continuous reference earthquake catalogue, continuously updated since 2021. Experimental deployments enable near real-time event detection, characterization, and Traffic Light System (TLS) alerting, including borehole DAS observations since 2024.

For the FEAR and GTB experiments, additional post-processed catalogues provide optimal yet conventional event parameters based on the final instrumentation configuration, optimized phase picking and hypocenter locations. The resulting catalogues provide consistent absolute locations and high-resolution double-difference relocations based on fully repicked waveform data.

Event magnitudes are estimated using multiple complementary approaches. The backbone national network provides a Swiss-specific local magnitude (Mlhc) using station corrections, while the permanent BedrettoLab network applies conventional local magnitude (MLc) from Wood–Anderson amplitudes. Experimental catalogues include relative moment magnitudes derived from acoustic emission amplitude ratios (MwA) calibrated against collocated accelerometers. Ongoing developments include spectral moment magnitudes and DAS strain-rate-based magnitude estimates to improve characterization of small-magnitude events.

The BedrettoLab monitoring framework, implemented in SeisComP, addresses challenges such as electromagnetic noise, tunnel operations, and heterogeneous sensor coverage while ensuring continuous acquisition, archiving, and FDSN-compliant data access. Beyond Bedretto, this on-fault, densely instrumented approach demonstrates how integrated DAS, permanent, and experimental monitoring can substantially improve event detection, location accuracy, and magnitude estimation, providing a transferable framework for induced seismicity monitoring, operational decision-making, and risk mitigation in geothermal and underground engineering applications.

How to cite: Massin, F., Scarabello, L., Rosskopf, M., Clinton, J., Meier, M.-A., Gischig, V., Wimez, M., Tuinstra, K., Edme, P., Rinaldi, A., Poggiali, G., Tinti, E., Supino, M., Giardini, D., and Wiemer, S. and the BULGG team: Multi-Scale On-Fault Seismic Monitoring at the Bedretto Underground Laboratory: An Operational Framework, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10187, 2026.

EGU26-11585 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.5

Performance assessment of Deep Learning picking models at Mount Etna volcano 

Andrea Carducci, Ornella Cocina, Mariangela Sciotto, Andrea Cannata, Serafina Di Gioia, Alessandro Vuan, Angela Saraò, Ken Tanaka Hernández, and Monica Sugan

We benchmark several pre-trained deep learning models for automatic phase picking and discrimination of volcano-tectonic earthquakes from long-period events in the complex volcanic setting of Mount Etna, Italy. We used SeisBench, an open-source framework to evaluate PhaseNet and EQTransformer models trained on different datasets from both tectonic and volcanic environments. These configurations are integrated into an autonomous workflow for phase picking, event association, and event classification.

The tests use a dataset of seismic waveforms recorded between January 2019 and June 2020 by  INGV – Osservatorio Etneo network. Performance is assessed  throughout the workflow, using two human-compiled catalogs of volcano-tectonic earthquakes and long-period events as reference benchmarks. Event classification combines signal-to-noise analysis, network geometry, and the frequency content associated with each event.

Among the tested configurations, models trained on volcanic datasets achieved the highest accuracy in both phase picking and events association. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal distribution of classified events closely matches the patterns observed in the reference catalogs.

How to cite: Carducci, A., Cocina, O., Sciotto, M., Cannata, A., Di Gioia, S., Vuan, A., Saraò, A., Tanaka Hernández, K., and Sugan, M.: Performance assessment of Deep Learning picking models at Mount Etna volcano, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11585, 2026.

EGU26-12472 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.5

A Feasibility Study of Earthquake Early Warning at the NITRO Near-Fault Observatory 

Simone Francesco Fornasari and Giovanni Costa
The performance of earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) is strongly controlled by near-fault source processes, network geometry, and real-time data transmission, making feasibility assessments critical for the system implementation. The effectiveness of a network-based EEWS at the recently established Northeastern Italy Thrust Faults Observatory (NITRO), a near-fault infrastructure designed to monitor the active thrust fault systems responsible for the 1976 Mw 6.4 Friuli earthquake.
The analysis is built on numerical simulations using the PRESTo early-warning framework (Satriano et al., 2012) with realistic, station-specific telemetry latencies measured over six months, and offline replays of the 2024 Mw 4.1 Preone earthquake. Alert timeliness, available lead time, and blind zone extent have been considered as proxies for the system performance, considering multiple configuration scenarios.
Results show that, under the current network layout, the blind zone radius for local earthquakes typically exceeds 18–25 km, covering a substantial portion of sites expected to experience strong ground shaking. Scenario-based simulations constrained by historical macroseismic intensity (Locati et al., 2022) indicate that roughly half of the damaged locations would lie within the blind zone, while only a limited fraction would receive alerts with actionable lead times (on the order of a few seconds to several seconds, depending on source-site distance and telemetry delays). Offline replays confirm the simulated alert latencies while showing the progressive stabilisation of real-time source parameter estimates.
Although the results of the analysis indicate that a network-based EEWS at NITRO is technically feasible, its capability to deliver effective near-fault early warning is currently limited by both network geometry and real-time latencies. Nonetheless, consistent with recent interdisciplinary studies, such systems can still provide valuable, rapid post-event information to civil protection authorities and the public. When integrated within existing seismic monitoring and automated processing workflows, EEWS outputs can enhance situational awareness and support emergency response in tectonically active regions.

How to cite: Fornasari, S. F. and Costa, G.: A Feasibility Study of Earthquake Early Warning at the NITRO Near-Fault Observatory, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12472, 2026.

EGU26-12887 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.5

Ambient Noise Characterisation and Detection Threshold of the DAS System at the Irpinia Near Fault Observatory  

Anjali Suresh, Claudio Strumia, Francesco Scotto Di Uccio, Francesco Carotenuto, Luca Elia, Raffaello Pegna, Gilberto Saccorotti, and Gaetano Festa

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is an emerging technology that turns optical fibers into dense seismic arrays, offering dense spatial coverage for ground motion monitoring. However, DAS recordings are limited by instrumental noise, which can obscure weak seismic signals and ambient noise, and complicate interpretation. Understanding the characteristics of this noise, its variability, and its potential informational content is therefore a crucial step toward establishing DAS as a robust tool for seismology.  

We systematically analyse ambient seismic noise recorded by a ~22 km DAS array deployed in the Irpinia region of Southern Italy, under the Italian project MEET – Monitoring Earth Evolution and Tectonics. Using Power Spectral Density (PSD) analysis of continuous strain rate data, we quantify the spatial and temporal variability of noise along the fibre. A primary objective of this work is to characterise the noise floor of our DAS system and its dependence on frequency and channel positions. Our analysis reveals that noise levels even in the quietest fiber sections approach the converted Peterson High Noise Model, indicating that the DAS array along commercial cables exhibits higher noise levels than traditional seismometers, usually deployed in remote areas. Spatial variability in PSD shows that some sections exhibit a flat, low noise response (down to -200 dB), dominated by instrumental noise, whereas others are more sensitive to ambient noise. This substantial variation in noise levels, governed by cable deployment conditions, directly controls the sensitivity of individual DAS channels. 

Based on the statistical characterization of ambient noise, we estimate the detection threshold of the DAS array by comparing the observed noise spectra with the theoretical strain rate spectra. From this channel level analysis, we derived an integrated detection threshold curve for the entire array. We found that the DAS fiber can detect events with a minimum magnitude of Mw 1.75 at a hypocentral distance of 25 km, with the threshold increasing to Mw 2.5 at 60 km. This empirically derived threshold is validated by real seismicity. 

How to cite: Suresh, A., Strumia, C., Scotto Di Uccio, F., Carotenuto, F., Elia, L., Pegna, R., Saccorotti, G., and Festa, G.: Ambient Noise Characterisation and Detection Threshold of the DAS System at the Irpinia Near Fault Observatory , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12887, 2026.

EGU26-13733 | Posters on site | SM3.5

Earthquake detection and characterization with Distributed Acoustic Sensing at the Irpinia Near Fault Observatory 

Gaetano Festa, Claudio Strumia, Francesco Scotto di Uccio, Anjali Suresh, Alister Trabattoni, Luca Elia, Gilberto Saccorotti, Nicola Piana Agostinetti, Francesco Carotenuto, and Raffaello Pegna

The Irpinia Near Fault Observatory is a multiparametric infrastructure in the Southern Apennines dedicated to monitoring the seismicity associated with the fault system responsible for the destructive 1980, Mw 6.9 Irpinia earthquake. The observatory integrates seismic, geodetic, and geochemical measurements and has recently been enhanced with two Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) systems within the framework of the national PNRR MEET project (Monitoring Earth Evolution and Tectonics).

A first DAS interrogator has been operating for one year and half and is connected to a 20 km fiber-optic cable deployed in the southern Campania–Lucania Apennines. Eleven months later, a second 60 km–long cable was connected to the same interrogator, covering the central sector of the region and crossing the surface projection of the main fault segments of the 1980 event. Since its installation, the DAS network has recorded about 150 earthquakes, many of which are clearly observed along large portions of one or both cables.

We developed an automatic workflow for DAS data analysis that enables earthquake detection and characterization. Event detection and phase picking are performed using the deep-learning model PhaseNet, demonstrating the effective transferability of conventional seismic models to DAS data. Event association is carried out using at least 50 phase picks, and absolute locations are obtained with the NNLoc software. Local magnitude is estimated from strain-rate data converted to short-wavelength displacement and convolved with the Wood–Anderson response, while moment magnitude and source parameters are derived directly from native strain data. Estimated magnitudes are consistent with those obtained from the conventional seismic network. The ability of the DAS system to detect and characterize earthquakes is controlled by the signal-to-noise ratio variability along the cable and agrees with detection thresholds inferred from power spectral density (PSD) analysis. 

How to cite: Festa, G., Strumia, C., Scotto di Uccio, F., Suresh, A., Trabattoni, A., Elia, L., Saccorotti, G., Piana Agostinetti, N., Carotenuto, F., and Pegna, R.: Earthquake detection and characterization with Distributed Acoustic Sensing at the Irpinia Near Fault Observatory, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13733, 2026.

EGU26-14412 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.5

On-fault monitoring using Fibre-Optic Sensing: a multi-borehole network 

Katinka Tuinstra, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Pascal Edme, Frédérick Massin, John Clinton, Mathilde Wimez, Men-Andrin Meier, Marian Hertrich, Paul Selvadurai, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer and the BULGG team

As part of the Fault Activation and Earthquake Rupture (FEAR) experiment [1] at the Bedretto Underground Laboratory for Geosciences and Geoenergies (BULGG), a comprehensive monitoring network has been installed to observe fault activation and rupture processes during controlled, in-situ experiments. Within this framework, we planned and installed a dense fibre-optic sensing network that complements a wide range of geophysical, hydraulic, and geomechanical instrumentation. Our contribution focuses on providing continuous, high-resolution measurements of seismic and deformation signals with fibre-optic sensing techniques across and around the target fault zone.

The fibre-optic network consists of 1 km of sensing fibre cemented six boreholes intersecting and surrounding a well-characterised target fault zone, enabling distributed acoustic, temperature, and strain sensing (DAS, DTS, and DSS). To ensure mechanical coupling and long-term monitoring, fibre-optic cables were cemented along the borehole walls and inside the tunnel floor. This combined borehole–tunnel geometry enables dense spatial coverage of the fault zone, allowing the observation of both localized fault slip and more distributed deformation.

We present the design and installation strategy of the fibre-optic network, discuss coupling conditions in different installation environments, and evaluate data quality in relation to other co-located sensors at Bedretto, installed both in the tunnel and in boreholes. The resulting multi-borehole fibre-optic array is deployed directly on and around the target fault, forming one of the most densely and closely monitored fault zones instrumented to date. Integrated within a vast multi-sensor observatory, this network provides an exceptional in-situ experimental setting to observe seismicity and related processes at close range.

 

[1] Meier, Men-Andrin, et al. Activating a natural fault zone in the Swiss Alps, Seismica, 2024 (doi: 10.26443/seismica.v5i1.2065).

How to cite: Tuinstra, K., Rinaldi, A. P., Edme, P., Massin, F., Clinton, J., Wimez, M., Meier, M.-A., Hertrich, M., Selvadurai, P., Giardini, D., and Wiemer, S. and the BULGG team: On-fault monitoring using Fibre-Optic Sensing: a multi-borehole network, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14412, 2026.

EGU26-16237 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.5

From dense monitoring seismic infrastructures to DAS: bridging detection techniques over different monitoring scales 

Francesco Scotto di Uccio, Antonio Scala, Claudio Strumia, Matteo Picozzi, Titouan Muzellec, Grazia De Landro, Gregory Beroza, and Gaetano Festa

Conventional catalogs are limited in size, since many small events are hidden in the noise. Therefore, discovering such events requires advances in both earthquake detection techniques and monitoring infrastructures. Dense permanent multidisciplinary observatories have been deploying near active seismogenic areas (Near-Fault Observatories, NFO) collecting seismological, geodetic and geochemical data with the goal of understanding the physical processes governing earthquake rupture. Moreover, temporary integration of dense seismic arrays has been proposed to further decrease the detection threshold. Finally, the progressive adoption of fiber optic systems for earthquake monitoring offers a novel decametric resolution, providing a significantly larger number of observations for earthquake characterization. With the growth of data quality and quantity, advanced machine learning models and similarity-based approaches have been developed to systematically identify low-magnitude earthquakes, reconciling the needing of efficient and reliable strategies.

Here, we apply innovative strategies for generating enhanced microseismic catalogs within the Irpinia Near-Fault Observatory (Southern Italy), which monitors the area struck by the 1980 M6.9 Irpinia earthquake, collecting high-resolution seismic observations from the kilometric-scale of the permanent seismic network (ISNet) to the decametric resolution offered by two DAS systems.

We showcase how the integration of machine learning and similarity-based detection techniques can increase the content of seismic catalogs both for background seismicity and seismic sequences. Characterization of the seismic source reveals the activated fault patches, while constraining evolutive models for the seismic sequences. We confirmed the effectiveness of the integrated detection strategy with the integration of 200 stations in dense arrays for one year. We demonstrated the possibility to consistently detect small magnitude earthquakes with the use of dense arrays lowering the magnitude of completeness of seismic catalogs down to M 0. The new catalog enables to downscale the seismicity characteristics to small, decametric-size events, illuminating active seismogenic structures capable to generate events up to M 7. 

To exploit the novel resolution offered by DAS systems, we exported machine learning models for the identification of P and S waves on native DAS records, showing that existing models can effectively recognize phase arrival times on DAS records, with the integration of 2D cross-correlation techniques identifying lower magnitude earthquakes.  We integrated machine learning models for an automatic characterization of the earthquakes recorded by DAS operating in the Irpinia region, tackling earthquake detection, phase association and local magnitude estimation.

How to cite: Scotto di Uccio, F., Scala, A., Strumia, C., Picozzi, M., Muzellec, T., De Landro, G., Beroza, G., and Festa, G.: From dense monitoring seismic infrastructures to DAS: bridging detection techniques over different monitoring scales, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16237, 2026.

EGU26-16851 | Posters on site | SM3.5

From Current to Next-Generation NFOs: First-Year Achievements and Strategic Goals of the TRANSFORM² Horizon Europe Project 

Panagiotis Elias, John Clinton, Simona Colombelli, Mariano Supino, Alexandru Marmureanu, Dimitris Paronis, George Kaviris, Efthimios Sokos, Vassilis Karastathis, Pascal Bernard, Gaetano Festa, Christos Evangelidis, Alessandro Vuan, Jan Kaplon, Vladimir Plicka, Semih Ergintav, Giovanni Costa, Stanka Šebela, Nikolaos Theodoulidis, and Ilias Aliferis and the rest TRANSFORM² team

Near-Fault Observatories (NFOs) are natural laboratories located at or near active faults undergoing complex geophysical processes, often in proximity to densely populated urban areas.

Covering relatively small areas, NFOs provide researchers from multiple disciplines (e.g., geophysics, geodesy, geochemistry) accessing rich, reusable datasets for generating scientific outputss. This enables improved understanding of the multi-scale physical and chemical processes driving earthquake generation—a goal achieveable only through continuous, long-term, high-resolution multidisciplinary data acquisition and consistent application of state-of-the-art processing techniques.

Eight NFOs in Europe have been identified by the European Plate Observing System (EPOS) as long-term Research Infrastructures (RIs); one additional is in observer status. NFOs aim to enhance understanding of earthquake mechanics to unravel the anatomy of complex seismogenic faults.

The TRANSFORM² project has the ambitious goal of improving and transforming the existing NFOs, by integrating cutting-edge methodological and technological solutions, paving the way for the next generation of NFOs across Europe. This will be achieved by:

  • Evaluating state-of-the-art sensors through testing, horizon scanning, gap analysis, and user needs assessment for NFO deployment.
  • Accelerating development and field-testing of promising new sensors.
  • Developping ML-powered workflows for real-time detection, location, and characterization of seismicity.
  • Creating next-generation Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) paradigms, optimized for dense NFO networks and validating their societal impact.
  • Strengthening stakeholder & decision-maker engagement by better understanding their needs and demonstrating clear benefits from NFO data/products.
  • Positioning existing NFOs as open, high-quality test-beds for calibration and validation of new geophysical instruments and systems.
  • Identifying sustainable funding pathways and providing recommendations to national authorities and the European Commission for long-term RI support.

Following the first year of the project, the design and testing of cutting-edge sensors, along with the development of automatic workflows for the detection and characterisation of seismic events and sequences, and the implementation of Earthquake Early Warning systems, are actively being carried out and extended to a growing number of NFOs. Concurrent deployment of the principal sensors, vital for supporting and enabling these advancements, is already in progress.

Finally, a ‘white book’ will be made public to document how data, products and services from the next-generation RIs can be exploited for the benefit of different target stakeholders, such as the research community, local authorities, and society, and to propose ways for ensuring sustainable funding of the RIs in the future.

TRANSFORM² is funded by the European Union under project number 101188365 within the HORIZON-INFRA-2024-DEV-01-01 call.

How to cite: Elias, P., Clinton, J., Colombelli, S., Supino, M., Marmureanu, A., Paronis, D., Kaviris, G., Sokos, E., Karastathis, V., Bernard, P., Festa, G., Evangelidis, C., Vuan, A., Kaplon, J., Plicka, V., Ergintav, S., Costa, G., Šebela, S., Theodoulidis, N., and Aliferis, I. and the rest TRANSFORM² team: From Current to Next-Generation NFOs: First-Year Achievements and Strategic Goals of the TRANSFORM² Horizon Europe Project, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16851, 2026.

EGU26-17233 | ECS | Posters on site | SM3.5

Regional-scale seismic monitoring using distributed acoustic sensing on telecommunication fibers: the Friuli Venezia Giulia experience 

Giuseppe Davide Chiappetta, Valerio Poggi, Davide Cuzzolin, Francesco Fabbro, Paolo Perucci, Paolo Comelli, Stefano Parolai, Athena Chalari, and Matteo Picozzi

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is rapidly emerging as a powerful complement to conventional seismic networks, enabling dense and continuous ground-motion monitoring by exploiting existing fiber-optic telecommunication infrastructures. In this contribution we present the design, implementation, and first results of a regional-scale DAS seismic monitoring network deployed in Friuli Venezia Giulia (NE Italy), developed through a close collaboration between the regional authorities, the public ICT provider INSIEL, and the scientific community.

The DAS infrastructure is an integral part of the SMINO network, the multi-sensor seismic and geodetic monitoring system for north-eastern Italy operated by OGS, and is fully integrated within its operational framework. The network is based on five strategically distributed interrogation points across the region, collectively instrumenting nearly 250 km of telecommunication fibers belonging to the regional backbone. This configuration provides several tens of thousands of virtual sensing channels with meter-scale spatial sampling, covering urban areas, transportation corridors, and heterogeneous geological settings. To our knowledge, this represents one of the most extensive—and likely the largest—operational regional DAS seismic monitoring networks currently deployed in Europe.

We describe the criteria adopted for fiber selection, network geometry, and acquisition parameters, with particular emphasis on signal optimization, performance, and long-term operational robustness. Examples of recordings from local and regional earthquakes demonstrate the capability of the system to capture coherent seismic wavefields, clear phase arrivals, and spatial variability of ground motion. The network also systematically records anthropogenic signals, which are discussed both as a challenge for data quality control and as an opportunity for multi-purpose environmental monitoring.

Finally, we address the integration of DAS data into existing seismic and civil protection workflows, including real-time data streaming, event detection, and rapid situational awareness. The Friuli Venezia Giulia experience demonstrates the maturity and added value of fiber-optic sensing for operational seismology at regional scale.

How to cite: Chiappetta, G. D., Poggi, V., Cuzzolin, D., Fabbro, F., Perucci, P., Comelli, P., Parolai, S., Chalari, A., and Picozzi, M.: Regional-scale seismic monitoring using distributed acoustic sensing on telecommunication fibers: the Friuli Venezia Giulia experience, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17233, 2026.

SM4 – Earthquake Sources, Deformation and Faulting (incl. seismotectonics, geodynamics, earthquake source physics)

EGU26-325 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.1

A novel statistical method for detecting short-term slow slip events in GNSS time series 

Yiming Ma, Andreas Anastasiou, and Fabien Montiel

Slow slip events (SSEs), a type of slow earthquakes, generally recorded by the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), play an important role in releasing strain in subduction zones. Understanding the relationship between SSEs and damaging earthquakes in nearby velocity-weakening portions of the plate interface could provide a valuable tool for forecasting large earthquakes, thus aiding in hazard mitigation. Detecting accurately the occurrence times of SSEs is one prerequisite to illuminate their interactions with large earthquakes. However, robust detection methods remain limited. Most undetected SSEs in GNSS data are short-term SSEs, i.e. SSEs with short durations ranging from days to weeks, since the amplitude changes in the GNSS data trend from short-term SSEs are somewhat small, close to (or even lower than) the background noise. Therefore, more urgent efforts should be devoted to developing an automated detection method for short-term SSEs in GNSS data.

Both observed and simulated GNSS data containing SSEs exhibit a typical piecewise nonlinear trend. In periods without SSEs, the data generally follow a noisy linear process. When an SSE occurs, the trend shifts to a different trajectory and returns to its original state once the event concludes. In this context, the start and end of an SSE correspond to change points in statistics, which refer to the times when the underlying dynamics of the signal transition between regimes. Thus, detecting SSEs in GNSS data can be formulated as a change point detection problem for piecewise nonlinear signals. However, developing a nonparametric change point detection method specifically for SSEs is challenging because constructing a suitable contrast function requires knowledge of the exact piecewise structure, which is currently unknown. This limitation also prevents existing change point detection methods from being directly applied to detect SSEs.

In this study, we propose Singular Spectrum Analysis Isolate-Detect (SSAID), a novel change-point detection method for automatically estimating the start and end times of short-term SSEs in GNSS data. A key advantage of SSAID is that it does not require prior knowledge of the specific form of the underlying SSE signal. The core idea of SSAID is to obscure the differences between the nonlinear SSE signal and a piecewise-linear model, allowing existing change-point detection techniques for piecewise-linear signals to be directly applied for SSE detection. We evaluate SSAID through extensive simulations on both synthetic and observed SSE data, demonstrating its robustness across varying noise levels and its superior performance compared to two existing approaches: linear regression with AIC and the L-1 trend filtering method. Finally, we confirm the effectiveness of our detections in observed GNSS data via the co-occurrence of non-volcanic tremors, hypothesis tests, and fault estimation.

How to cite: Ma, Y., Anastasiou, A., and Montiel, F.: A novel statistical method for detecting short-term slow slip events in GNSS time series, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-325, 2026.

EGU26-1504 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.1

DeepGEM-EGF: A Bayesian strategy for joint estimates of source-time functions and empirical Green's functions 

Théa Ragon, Angela Gao, and Zach Ross

An earthquake record is the convolution of source radiation, path propagation and site effects, and instrument response. Isolating the source component requires solving an ill-posed inverse problem. Whether the instability of inferred source parameters arises from varying properties of the source, or from approximations we introduce in solving the problem, remains an open question. 
Such approximations often derive from limited knowledge of the forward problem. The Empirical Green’s function (EGF) approach offers a partial remedy, by approximating the forward response of large events using the records of smaller events. The choice of the « best » small event drastically influences the properties estimated for the larger earthquake. Discriminating variability in source properties from epistemic uncertainties, stemming from the forward problem or other modeling assumptions, requires us to reliably account for, and propagate, any bias or trade-off introduced in the problem. 
We propose a Bayesian inversion framework that aims at providing reliable and probabilistic estimates of source parameters (here, for the source-time function or STF), and their posterior uncertainty, in the time domain. We jointly solve for the best EGF using one or a few small events as prior EGF. Our approach expands on DeepGEM, an unsupervised generalized expectation-maximization framework for tomography (Gao et al., 2021). We demonstrate, with toy models and various applications to mainshocks of Mw ranging from ~4 to 6.3, the potential of DeepGEM-EGF to disentangle the variability of the seismic source from biases introduced by modeling assumptions. 

How to cite: Ragon, T., Gao, A., and Ross, Z.: DeepGEM-EGF: A Bayesian strategy for joint estimates of source-time functions and empirical Green's functions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1504, 2026.

EGU26-3206 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.1

Bimaterial Effect and Favorable Energy Ratio Enabled Supershear Rupture in the 2025 Mandalay Quake 

Liuwei Xu, Lingsen Meng, Zhang Yunjun, Yanchen Yang, Yidi Wang, Changyang Hu, Huihui Weng, Wenbin Xu, Elizabeth Su, and Chen Ji

Joint seismic and geodetic analyses reveal that the 2025 Mw 7.8 Mandalay, Myanmar earthquake ruptured ~510 km of the Sagaing Fault, including a sustained supershear rupture extending ~450 km along the southern branch and a shorter ~60 km subshear rupture to the north. The supershear nature of the southern rupture is independently confirmed by the observation of far-field Mach waves, comparisons between near-fault fault-parallel and fault-normal velocity components, and picks of ground-displacement onset times. This exceptionally long supershear rupture produced widespread building collapse, landslides, and soil liquefaction documented by satellite observations, highlighting the severe damage potential of such rupture modes in urban environments. We propose that the persistent supershear propagation was enabled by the fault’s linear geometry, prolonged interseismic quiescence, favorable energy ratio, and pronounced bimaterial contrasts across the fault interface. Together, these results emphasize the critical roles of fault structure, stress accumulation, and material contrasts in controlling rupture dynamics, and demonstrate that large-scale supershear propagation can occur on interplate continental strike-slip faults.

How to cite: Xu, L., Meng, L., Yunjun, Z., Yang, Y., Wang, Y., Hu, C., Weng, H., Xu, W., Su, E., and Ji, C.: Bimaterial Effect and Favorable Energy Ratio Enabled Supershear Rupture in the 2025 Mandalay Quake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3206, 2026.

EGU26-5024 | Posters on site | SM4.1

Scaling of rupture initiation from P-wave onset: insights from earthquakes and laboratory experiments 

Simona Colombelli, Valeria Longobardi, Stefano Aretusini, Chiara Cornelio, Akos Kiss, Elena Spagnuolo, and Aldo Zollo

Despite recent advances from real observations, laboratory experiments and numerical modelling, the mechanisms governing earthquake generation and wave propagation are still not fully understood. Theoretical analyses and laboratory experiments increasingly show that seismic ruptures begin with a process of quasi-static slip accumulation over a limited region of the fault (referred to as the preparatory phase). Here, when a critical dimension (or area) is reached, the slip rapidly accelerates (referred to as the break-out phase) and creates a rupture front which finally propagates dynamically. While the breakout phase is observed at laboratory scale, no direct evidence is available at the scale of real-earthquake data. The unresolved question is whether the breakout phase has an influence on the final size of the forthcoming event. In other words, it remains unclear whether all earthquakes begin through a similar process—characterized by the exceedance of a yield stress and influenced by local frictional properties or geometric complexities of the fault surface—with the rupture extent determined during propagation, or whether fundamentally different initiation mechanisms govern the generation of small and large events.  Within the framework of the ERC FORESEEING project (https://www.foreseeing.eu/), we use the P-waves to shed light onto the mechanism of generation of seismic ruptures and to constrain the role of the parameters involved in the process. We investigate the onset of P-waves across multiple datasets, focusing on natural earthquakes with magnitudes Mw 1–4 from four well-instrumented regions: the Campi Flegrei region (Southern Italy), the Irpinia Near Fault Observatory (Southern Italy), the TABOO network (Central Italy), and The Geysers geothermal field (USA), for a total of thousands of events and available waveforms.

Following the approach of Longobardi et al. (2025), we analyse the behaviour of the lowpass displacement vs. time curve (LPDT). We found that LPDT curves grows differently for micro (Mw 1-2) to small earthquakes (Mw 2-4), following a similar trend as observed for worldwide moderate-to-large events (Longobardi et al. 2025). For a limited number of events, we extended the analysis to laboratory scale - 300 mm fault length - experiments, where we use acoustic signals to investigate the relation between the LPDT and the seismic source allowing a direct comparison between elastic waves over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. We will discuss the scaling of LPDT curves across diverse seismic environments and magnitude ranges, and its potential use for rapid source characterization, in the context of Earthquake Early Warning applications.  

How to cite: Colombelli, S., Longobardi, V., Aretusini, S., Cornelio, C., Kiss, A., Spagnuolo, E., and Zollo, A.: Scaling of rupture initiation from P-wave onset: insights from earthquakes and laboratory experiments, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5024, 2026.

EGU26-5177 | ECS | Orals | SM4.1

The deterministic behaviour of earthquake rupture beginning 

Valeria Longobardi, Simona Colombelli, and Aldo Zollo

Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural hazards whose released energy can be quantified by their magnitude. Predicting how much energy will be released before the end of the rupture process represents a challenging question. The way earthquake ruptures grow, propagate and arrest determines the final size: small-to-moderate ruptures evolve in few seconds within few kilometers, while large-to-huge events develop in tens of seconds and several hundred kilometers. If the rupture process starts in the same way for small and large earthquakes, no deterministic prediction of the final size is feasible, until the process has completed. Instead, if the source mechanism starts differently from its beginning, real-time proxies can be measured on early radiated waves to discriminate the final event size. Here we show that the initial ground displacement grows differently for small and large earthquakes, based on the analysis of an unprecedented catalog of seismic waveforms from worldwide earthquakes. The result supports the hypothesis of early predictable magnitude for a wide range of different earthquakes in diverse geological settings. This study confirms that the initial growth of displacement can be used for a fast magnitude estimation, making it potentially feasible for future implementation in early warning systems.

How to cite: Longobardi, V., Colombelli, S., and Zollo, A.: The deterministic behaviour of earthquake rupture beginning, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5177, 2026.

On January 1, 2024, a Mw 7.5 earthquake struck the northern Noto Peninsula in Japan. Prior to the mainshock, an intense seismic swarm persisted for over three years—driven by fluid propagation and accumulation—and led to two large foreshocks: the Mj 5.4 event in 2022 and the Mj 6.5 event in 2023. High-resolution earthquake catalogs are essential for elucidating earthquake nucleation processes, but they provide only a limited view of the detailed faulting mechanisms, fault structures, and spatiotemporal stress changes involved. In contrast, focal-mechanism solutions for small earthquakes (e.g., M < 3)—which are challenging to obtain using traditional methods when station coverage is sparse—provide subtle, qualitative constraints on fault orientations and stress changes. In this study, we aim to deepen our understanding of the Noto Peninsula earthquake’s long-term nucleation by characterizing focal mechanisms of small foreshocks to reveal detailed stress evolution and infer associated fault structures.

We employ the recently developed, cross-correlation–based double-ratio inversion method FocMecDR to determine focal mechanisms of small earthquakes preceding the Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake. Analogous to the double-difference concept in earthquake location, FocMecDR uses a reference event with a known mechanism (i.e., strike, dip, and rake) and inverts nearby target events by (1) matching relative polarities for pairs of events via waveform cross-correlation and (2) minimizing the misfit between observed and theoretical P/S amplitude double ratios for pairs of events. We will first briefly introduce this method and validate its effectiveness using the well-studied 2019 Mw 6.4 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. For the Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake sequence and its foreshocks, we focused on the period from January 2020 to March 2024 using the FocMecDR and 135 F-net focal mechanisms as templates, and determined focal mechanisms for more than 1,000 M > 2 earthquakes. The detailed variations in focal mechanisms delineate the dipping angles of fine fault structures and the spatiotemporal evolution of stress. Most interestingly, we found reversed normal-faulting earthquakes following large thrust events. In this presentation, we will report these results and discuss the detailed nucleation process before the Mw 7.5 mainshock.

How to cite: Zhang, M. and Kato, A.: Characterization of Focal Mechanisms for Small Earthquakes Preceding the Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5734, 2026.

The repeating earthquake method constrains repeated rupture processes on the same or adjacent source patches of a fault by identifying small-magnitude earthquake events with highly similar source locations, focal mechanisms, and waveforms. This approach effectively captures information on seismic velocity variations and fault stress evolution and has been widely applied to studies of fault slip rates, strain accumulation, and earthquake preparation processes. The NE-striking Zhaotong-Ludian Fault Zone, located in the eastern segment of the Sichuan-Yunnan border region, has exhibited pronounced thrusting combined with right-lateral strike-slip motion since the Late Quaternary, shows a high degree of fault locking and significant strain accumulation potential, and hosted the 2014 Ludian MS 6.5 earthquake, making it an ideal case for investigating fault-zone velocity variations and earthquake preparation mechanisms using repeating earthquakes. In this study, we collected near-field three-component continuous seismic waveform data from January 2018 to March 2021 in the Zhaotong-Ludian Fault Zone, Yunnan Province, and identified a group of repeating earthquake events located on the eastern side of the fault zone through waveform cross-correlation analysis to investigate velocity structure variations within the fault zone. Analysis of repeating earthquake waveforms recorded at different stations shows that the three-component waveforms recorded at station YIL, which is located on the eastern side of the fault zone, exhibit a high degree of similarity, whereas waveforms recorded at station YUD on the western side of the fault zone remain generally consistent but display subtle differences within approximately 2-5s after the P-wave arrival. We further constrained seismic velocity variations within the fault zone by comparing observed waveforms of the repeating earthquakes with synthetic waveforms generated using a two-dimensional finite-difference method. The results indicate that when the P-wave velocity decreases by approximately 4% at depths of 6-12 km in the central portion of the fault zone, the synthetic waveforms successfully reproduce the phase delays observed in the recorded waveforms, with good agreement in both time shifts and waveform morphology. These findings not only quantitatively constrain the magnitude and spatial distribution of velocity variations within the fault zone, but also demonstrate the feasibility of identifying localized changes in velocity structure using waveform differences of repeating earthquakes, and they provide important insights into fault-zone fluid processes and their role in earthquake preparation.

How to cite: Wang, B., Zhou, Y., and Feng, J.: Determination of velocity structure variations within the Zhaotong-Ludian Fault Zone based on Repeating Earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6445, 2026.

EGU26-8401 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.1

Examining Spatial Variations in California Earthquake Dynamics Using a High- to Low-Frequency Spectral Ratio 

Ian Vandevert, Peter Shearer, and Wenyuan Fan

Earthquakes radiate varying amounts of high-frequency energy, reflecting differences in source dynamics, propagation and attenuation, and near-station site effects. Building on results from the Ridgecrest Stress Drop Validation Exercise, which revealed large uncertainties in stress drop estimates, we apply a new data-driven approach to measure differences in seismic radiation directly from the observations. We compute a ratio of high-frequency to low-frequency amplitude from individual spectra. By empirically correcting path, station, and magnitude effects, we measure the relative amount of high-frequency radiation in earthquakes compared to nearby calibration events. Our results show that this normalized spectra ratio is correlated with earthquake stress-drop estimates from previous studies of the 2019 Ridgecrest aftershock sequence, suggesting that it can be used to infer differences in source dynamics. We expand this approach to examine over 30 years of California seismicity, including hundreds of thousands of earthquakes, and identify spatial differences in high-frequency radiation and inferred source mechanics. Spatial variations in high-frequency radiation occur over both local and regional scales, and are visible within high-seismicity regions, including Parkfield, Geysers, and Mammoth Lakes. Our large-scale study of spatial differences in earthquake radiation offers an observation-based alternative to traditional stress-drop estimation methods, and we will discuss its implications for fault properties and strong ground motion prediction in California.

How to cite: Vandevert, I., Shearer, P., and Fan, W.: Examining Spatial Variations in California Earthquake Dynamics Using a High- to Low-Frequency Spectral Ratio, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8401, 2026.

On December 18, 2023, an Ms6.2 earthquake struck Jishishan County, Linxia Prefecture, Gansu Province, China. The earthquake occurred in the boundary area of Qilian orogenic belt and Bayanqala block in the northeast margin of Tibetan Plateau. Near the epicenter, the Laji Mountain fault, the Riyueshan fault and the north margin of the West Qinling fault developed. In this study, 598 aftershocks of the Ms6.2 earthquake sequence in Jishishan were relocated using the double difference positioning method. The main earthquake location was 102.826°E, 35.743°N, and the focal depth was 12.3 km. The main moment magnitude is 6.1, and the strike, dip and slip Angle of the fault plane are 162°, 44° and 122°, respectively. Combined with the results of relocation and focal mechanism solution, it is believed that the seismic fault of this earthquake is a hidden NNW-SSE trending NE-dip fault between the northern and southern margin faults of Laji Mountain. The fault located at the main earthquake mainly leans to the east, the aftershock extends to the northwest, and the fault changes from east dip to vertical dip to west dip to the north, with a transitional zone in between. The transformation form presents a "fan" shape, which intuitively shows the complexity of the tectonic environment in this area. From the source rupture inversion, the rupture is mainly an elliptical area with a long axis of about 10 km and a short axis of about 6 km in the northwest direction of the source, with a maximum error momentum of about 40 cm, located at a depth of about 14.5 km underground. From the perspective of the seismic rupture direction, the rupture mainly propagates along the direction of striking NWW, and the rupture maximum value appears at 2.2 seconds. The rupture velocity is about 1.5 km/s, and the rupture is mainly unilateral. The extreme earthquake area of strong ground motion estimated by finite fault model is up to Ⅸ degrees, which is consistent with the seismic field investigation results.

How to cite: Luo, Y. and Zhu, Y.: The seismic tectonics of the MS6.2 Jishishan Earthquake in Gansu Province on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau were analyzed based on the earthquake relocation, focal mechanism solution, and rupture process, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9316, 2026.

EGU26-12706 | Posters on site | SM4.1

Earthquake rupture models with very high spatial and temporal resolution: Data management and insight into co-seismic stress evolution 

Elizabeth Madden, Iris Christadler, Thomas Ulrich, and Alice-Agnes Gabriel

During an earthquake, fault slip and the passing of seismic waves perturb the stress field surrounding the ruptured fault or faults. Aftershocks with a variety of focal mechanisms have been used to interpret a complete stress drop that has permitted principal stresses to swap orientations. We test if this is required or if aftershock heterogeneity may be promoted by moderate stress decreases and principal stress rotations, in the absence of a complete stress drop and principal stress swapping. Three-dimensional (3D) simulations of dynamic earthquake ruptures at high temporal resolution provide a pathway for testing these alternatives, but are challenged by the computational cost and storage space required to run and analyze such models at high enough spatial and temporal resolutions to study co-seismic stress evolution. We were supported by the Geo-INQUIRE Transnational Access program to run a suite of megathrust earthquake scenarios based on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on CINECA’s Leonardo high performance computing (HPC) platform booster partition, currently ranked 10th in the Top500, the list of the fastest supercomputers in the world. These models are run with SeisSol, which solves for dynamic rupture on complex, three-dimensional faults and seismic wave propagation through heterogeneous media. Initial conditions for these scenarios vary in the amount of pore fluid pressure and how it is distributed with depth, the relative magnitudes of the principal stresses, and initial stress heterogeneity. As a result, the modeled earthquakes vary in magnitude, average stress drop magnitude, the distribution of stress drop along the main fault, and locations of peak slip and slip rate. We document the stress field at a central position along the rupture as it evolves from nucleation to earthquake end and share results for how different pre-earthquake conditions influence stress rotation magnitudes and orientations. While the results do not rule out complete stress drop and principal stress swapping as an explanation for aftershock heterogeneity, we find that stress rotations that occur along the megathrust and in the hanging wall support thrust, normal and strike-slip failure, even when a complete stress drop is not achieved. These models push the limits of HPC experimental dataset storage, transfer and analysis. We utilize the new Geo-INQUIRE Simulation Data Lake (SDL), which provides not only capacity to store terabytes of synthetic data, but also allows open and FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) sharing of the results through Digital Object Identifiers (DOIs) for each dataset and the accompanying model files. 

How to cite: Madden, E., Christadler, I., Ulrich, T., and Gabriel, A.-A.: Earthquake rupture models with very high spatial and temporal resolution: Data management and insight into co-seismic stress evolution, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12706, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12706, 2026.

EGU26-12759 | ECS | Orals | SM4.1

Structural and frictional controls on the nucleation, propagation, and arrest of the 2025 Mw 6.2 Central Marmara Earthquake, Türkiye 

Sebastián Núñez-Jara, Felipe Vera, Francesco Scotto di Uccio, Oliver Fabisch, Georg Dresen, Marco Bohnhoff, and Patricia Martínez-Garzón

How large earthquakes initiate, propagate, and ultimately arrest remains a central question in seismology, particularly in high-risk regions such as the Istanbul metropolitan area, home to more than 20 million people. The 2025 Mw 6.2 Central Marmara earthquake ruptured a ~20 km-long segment of the right-lateral east-west trending North Anatolian Fault Zone beneath the Sea of Marmara (hereafter NAFZ-Marmara), immediately adjacent to a long-recognized Istanbul seismic gap. The ruptured fault segment belongs to a complex, structurally heterogeneous system, bounded by a creeping segment to the west and a locked segment to the east. This setting allows us to investigate how slip heterogeneity may control rupture behavior.

Here, we combine newly derived seismicity and focal mechanism catalogs spanning both the pre- and post-mainshock periods with strong-motion back-projection imaging to constrain earthquake nucleation processes and to characterize rupture propagation, aftershock evolution, and triggered seismicity. We observe that roughly two weeks before the mainshock, seismicity subtly localized and migrated ~10 km toward the future epicentral area from the west, within a portion of the NAFZ-Marmara characterized by high creeping rates and the presence of repeating earthquakes. Back-projection reveals that the mainshock rupture propagated unilaterally ~24 km eastward through a sedimentary basin at velocities approaching the shear-wave speed, but without evidence of supershear behavior, before abruptly arresting upon reaching a topographic high. Notably, immediately ahead of the eastern rupture tip, aftershock activity is very sparse. In contrast, no evidence is found for rupture propagation toward the west, suggesting that the creeping segment inhibited rupture growth in that direction. This is further supported by the aftershock migration pattern to the west, which evolves approximately logarithmically with time, consistent with afterslip-driven aftershocks.

Despite the abrupt rupture arrest at the eastern rupture tip, the earthquake triggered intense seismicity in a region located ~15–20 km south of Istanbul, spatially disconnected from the actual rupture, but kinematically linked to the NAFZ-Marmara system. The timing and source kinematics of the triggered events, occurring within minutes to days and persisting for months after the mainshock, indicate a strong response of the surrounding fault network to the stress perturbations imposed by the rupture.

Our results show that the 2025 Mw 6.2 Central Marmara earthquake ruptured a complex fault system in which frictional and structural heterogeneities strongly modulated rupture nucleation,  propagation, arrest, and the spatiotemporal pattern of aftershocks and triggered seismicity. Finally, we highlight that the abrupt eastern rupture termination and the activation of faults immediately south of the Istanbul megacity are particularly significant in the context of the region’s seismic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Núñez-Jara, S., Vera, F., Scotto di Uccio, F., Fabisch, O., Dresen, G., Bohnhoff, M., and Martínez-Garzón, P.: Structural and frictional controls on the nucleation, propagation, and arrest of the 2025 Mw 6.2 Central Marmara Earthquake, Türkiye, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12759, 2026.

EGU26-12975 | ECS | Orals | SM4.1

Linking Fast and Slow Earthquakes: The Role of Subducting Seamounts 

Roos Verwijs and Camilla Cattania

Seamount subduction is thought to strongly influence the slip behavior of megathrust earthquakes, yet its role in hosting fast or slow earthquakes remains controversial. Seamounts alter fault stress, fluid flow, and upper plate structure, introducing heterogeneity to the subduction system.

Here we investigate how a subducting seamount affects the earthquake cycle by modulating normal stress along the megathrust. We combine  theoretical arguments based on energy balance (linear elastic fracture mechanics, LEFM) with numerical simulations. We use the efficient boundary element model FDRA, which simulates short-term earthquake cycles with rate-and-state friction. 

We first examine shallow seamounts and identify three regimes: (1) downdip-nucleated earthquakes that propagate through the seamount, (2) seamount-nucleated earthquakes that break the entire fault, and (3) alternating earthquake behavior, where the seamount hosts small, seamount-confined events as well as larger, system-wide ruptures. The transition between regimes (1) and (2) is controlled by the seamount’s stress perturbation and its distance from the loading boundary. Rupture arrest, and the transition to regime (3), are explained by energy balance at the crack tip (LEFM). Partial ruptures at the seamount occur when fracture toughness, enhanced by normal-stress heterogeneity, exceeds the stress intensity factor. At sufficiently high stress amplitudes, seamounts host slow slip events that are controlled by the nominal nucleation dimension and the seamount width

Next, we extend the model to the downdip brittle–ductile transition at 50 km depth to test the effect of deeper seamounts. Seismic cycles are dominated by downdip nucleation, with most ruptures arresting before the seamount, though some propagate through it. As a result, stress at the seamount is repeatedly reset by downdip ruptures, preventing seamount nucleation. A simple theoretical estimate shows that, without heterogeneity, homogeneous friction makes seamount nucleation unlikely due to a tradeoff between rupture propagation and nucleation: high fracture energy limits rupture propagation but also increases the seamount nucleation length.

Finally, we account for frictional heterogeneity by  implementing multiple hierarchical slip-weakening distance profiles and examine how this controls seismic behavior. Our results show that seamounts, even with small stress perturbations and at different depths, consistently promote slow slip in their stress shadow and increase earthquake activity at the stress shadow’s edges. Seamounts can act as rupture barriers, occasionally facilitate large system-wide ruptures, but they more commonly host smaller partial ruptures. 

Overall, our work demonstrates that seamounts can produce a rich variety of slip behavior, including slow slip, earthquake nucleation, partial and full ruptures, reconciling diverse observations across subduction zones worldwide. These regimes are well understood in terms of normal stress heterogeneity and prestress levels. A single seamount can produce different slip patterns throughout the seismic cycle, with important implications for seismic hazard.

How to cite: Verwijs, R. and Cattania, C.: Linking Fast and Slow Earthquakes: The Role of Subducting Seamounts, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12975, 2026.

EGU26-14302 | Orals | SM4.1

Could the complex rupture dynamics of the 2025 Mw 7.8 Myanmar Earthquake have been predicted?  

Thomas Ulrich, Xiaoyu Zou, Mathilde Marchandon, Nico Schliwa, Fengzhou Tan, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Wenyuan Fan, Peter Shearer, Myo Thant, Tha Zin Htet Tin, Eric O. Lindsey, and Yuri Fialko

The 2025 Mw 7.8 Myanmar earthquake produced one of the longest continental strike-slip ruptures ever recorded. Expanding beyond a known seismic gap, it struck a densely populated region with vulnerable infrastructure. Study of this earthquake is hampered by limited seismic data coverage, yet uniquely informed by exceptional CCTV footage, a near-fault station, and comprehensive satellite geodetic imagery.

To understand the earthquake’s dynamics, we explore hundreds of 3‑D dynamic rupture simulations, all informed by a static slip model on a helix‑shaped fault geometry, which we geodetically inferred from Sentinel-1A/2 and ALOS-2 satellite data. Exploring various fault friction‑initial stress combinations, we identify a family of models characterized by near-critical prestress, low strength drop, and short slip‑weakening distances proportional to slip. These unexpected dynamic parameters are required to reconcile the inferred fast rupture speed with the low crustal wave velocities and the low inferred stress drop of the event. These preferred dynamic rupture models can explain space‑geodetic fault offsets, CCTV‑derived on‑fault slip‑rates, teleseismic waveforms and back-projection, and a near‑fault strong‑motion record. They spontaneously initiate unilateral supershear rupture  shortly after nucleation, predominantly propagating at supershear speeds southward within a deep band.  In contrast, shallow rupture, although driven by the underlying faster supershear rupture, remains sub‑shear, causing strong curvature of the rupture front. This depth‑dependent rupture speed reconciles the fast average rupture speed imaged by teleseismic back‑projection and confirmed by the early S‑wave onset at station NPW, and the subshear pulse-like phase captured by CCTV. 

Our dynamic rupture models imply low fracture energy, characteristic of a structurally mature, clay‑rich fault zone, potentially facilitated by hydrothermal alteration and elevated pore-fluid pressure. Additional rupture models incorporating bimaterial effects show that while a bimaterial contrast may explain the subshear–supershear dichotomy between northward- and southward-propagating rupture, such a contrast is inconsistent with the NPW record, suggesting that bimaterial conditions were likely localized. Our results demonstrate that dynamic rupture ensembles informed from a static slip model and validated by interdisciplinary observations can offer a physically grounded route for earthquake characterization, complementary to kinematic modeling. Our results indicate that the Myanmar earthquake was critically influenced by spatial variations in frictional properties and fault stress across low-fracture-energy faults with important implications for assessing seismic hazard of major strike-slip faults.

How to cite: Ulrich, T., Zou, X., Marchandon, M., Schliwa, N., Tan, F., Gabriel, A.-A., Fan, W., Shearer, P., Thant, M., Tin, T. Z. H., Lindsey, E. O., and Fialko, Y.: Could the complex rupture dynamics of the 2025 Mw 7.8 Myanmar Earthquake have been predicted? , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14302, 2026.

EGU26-14544 | Orals | SM4.1

Analysis of the 2023 Mw6.8 Al-Haouz, Morroco, Earthquake using a Bayesian Inversion and an extensive seismic catalog. 

Hugo Sanchez-Reyes, Emmanuel Caballero, Mohamed Chlieh, and Nacer Jabour

Moderate earthquakes can be as destructive as large megathrust events, particularly when they occur close to metropolitan areas. On September 8, 2023, a moderate Mw 6.8 earthquake struck central Morocco, causing approximately 3,000 fatalities, mainly in the Marrakech region. The earthquake occurred in the High Atlas Mountains, an area characterized by relatively low seismic activity, where the largest previously reported events did not exceed Mb ≈ 5.5. Several questions remain open regarding the physics of this earthquake. The focal mechanism solutions indicate two possible fault geometries: one high-dip plane and one low-dip plane. Some studies suggesting a rupture on a low-dip plane, considering that the continental crust may not be able to host earthquakes at greater depths, while other studies propose that mantle upwelling could have trigger a rupture on a high-dip fault plane.

In this study, we investigate the possible physical processes underlying the 2023 Al Haouz earthquake using a high-resolution seismic catalog and a joint Bayesian kinematic inversion of the rupture history. The seismic catalog spans one year, from January to December 2023, , and was constructed using the PhaseNet framework together with a 1D velocity model. We perform a joint Bayesian kinematic inversion that incorporates previously published geodetic observations (InSAR) with the limited available near-field and regional seismic data, in order to constrain the rupture propagation.

Our earthquake catalog allows us to image seismicity aligned with the high-dip fault plane, providing additional constraints to distinguish between the two proposed fault geometries. In addition, we do not observe clear evidence of sustained seismic activity at greater depths either prior to or following the mainshock. This observation does not strongly support a hypothetical active upward migration of seismicity from depth, as might be expected in the presence of mantle upwelling. The joint inversion indicates a relatively simple rupture process, dominated by a single major slip patch that released most of the seismic energy before propagating away from the hypocenter. Our results suggest that tectonic loading mechanisms, alternative to mantle upwelling, could have acted as the primary source of stress accumulation in the region.

How to cite: Sanchez-Reyes, H., Caballero, E., Chlieh, M., and Jabour, N.: Analysis of the 2023 Mw6.8 Al-Haouz, Morroco, Earthquake using a Bayesian Inversion and an extensive seismic catalog., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14544, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14544, 2026.

This study shows evidence based on observations of near-fault ground motions and surface offset that regions with larger-than-average surface offset exhibit weaker ground motions for frequencies above 0.5 Hz. This negative correlation of surface offset and high-frequency ground motion is inconsistent with current scaling in kinematic rupture generators. Using rupture dynamic simulations with a linear slip-weakening rheology model combined with observed data enables us to define an input parameter space that is consistent with the observations. Given the multi-parameter nature of rupture dynamics, we focus on just two parameters: stress drop and the slip-weakening distance, Dc. Under this framework, the observed scaling can be explained if the stress drop is positively correlated with the slip-weakening distance. We explore the implications of our findings in kinematic source modeling constrained by our rupture dynamic simulations. We conclude that the ratio between the time of positive acceleration and the total rise time is negatively correlated with the total rise time, which contrasts with the current assumption of keeping this percentage fixed. Moreover, this study shows that regions with larger-than-average static stress drops tend to radiate weaker high-frequency energy and stronger low-frequency energy. 

How to cite: Pinilla-Ramos, C. and Abrahamson, N.: Constraining Rupture-Generator Scaling Using Measured Surface Offsets, Near-Fault Ground Motions and Rupture Dynamic Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15068, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15068, 2026.

EGU26-15900 | Orals | SM4.1

Sediment Yielding Amplifies Delocalization of Fault Deformation in the 2025Myanmar Earthquake 

Shengji Wei, Chenglong Li, Peng Zhai, Yihe Huang, Yann Klinger, Haomin Ji, Chenyu Ma, Guodong Bao, Zhikun Ren, Kai Sun, Tao Li, and Xianjian Shan

Global observations reveal faults respond to earthquake ruptures through localized on-fault slip and distributed off-fault deformation (OFD). Deformation becomes increasingly delocalized along faults that are immature or geometrically complex, rupture slowly, or propagate through sediment-rich regions. However, the physical processes by which sediments control this delocalization remain largely unresolved. Here we utilize high-resolution optical imagery to characterize surface rupture and OFD of the 2025 Mw 7.8 Myanmar earthquake, a supershear rupture event on a mature fault topping with thick sediments including the Quaternary alluvium and Irrawaddy Formation. Our results show averaging 32% OFD, far exceeding 13-19% expectation from global observations of such mature faults with simple geometry and supershear rupture speeds. Sediment-rich terrains along this rupture significantly amplify OFD to ~31-42%, nearly double the 19% observed in bedrock, and generate two highly diffused deformation sections lacking clear surface rupture. Dynamic rupture simulations incorporating variations in shear-wave velocity and frictional properties reproduce the observed OFD spectrum (from localized to fully delocalized deformation, revealing that plastic yielding of sediments dramatically delocalizes fault strain in the uppermost few hundreds of meters. We suggest such process should be integrated into models of shallow faulting and seismic hazard assessment in sediment-rich regions worldwide.

How to cite: Wei, S., Li, C., Zhai, P., Huang, Y., Klinger, Y., Ji, H., Ma, C., Bao, G., Ren, Z., Sun, K., Li, T., and Shan, X.: Sediment Yielding Amplifies Delocalization of Fault Deformation in the 2025Myanmar Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15900, 2026.

EGU26-16169 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.1

Impact of the 2020 Elazığ and 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes on the Palu–Ilıca–Karlıova Segments using InSAR, GNSS, and Seismotectonic Analyses 

Çağkan Serhun Zoroğlu, Tülay Kaya Eken, Mısra Gedik, Tuna Eken, and Haluk Özener

The left-lateral East Anatolian Fault (EAF) is one of the most active intracontinental plate-boundary faults, along with the right-lateral North Anatolian Fault (NAF), accommodating the westward movement of the Anatolian plate in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. The historical seismic records, indicating the large-magnitude earthquakes caused by the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), conflict with the region’s relative tectonic silence during the instrumental period. The largest known historical earthquakes along the EAFZ occurred in 995 (Ms 7 - 7.8), 1114 (M > 7.8), 1408 (Ms 7.2), 1513 (M > 7.4), 1789 (Ms > 7), 1822 (Ms > 7.4), 1872 (Ms > 7.2), 1874 (Ms > 7.1), 1893 (M > 7.1), 1905 (Ms 6.8), 1971 (Ms 6.8), 2020 (Mw 6.75) and 2023 (Mw 7.5). The 24 January 2020 Mw 6.7 Doğanyol-Sivrice Earthquake and the 6 February 2023 Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake Doublet have shown that the EAFZ, located in the middle of the continental collision zone, poses a significant potential to generate catastrophic earthquakes despite its long quiescence-period. Following the 2020 Mw 6.7 Doğanyol-Sivrice earthquake, studies that particularly focusing Coulomb stress change distribution indicated that the stress transfer along the EAF towards the northeast of Lake Hazar, in particular to the Palu, Ilıca, and Karlıova segments. Similarly, stress transfer following the February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes was towards both southwest, i.e., to the Amanos and Hacıpaşa segments, and to the northeast of the EAF. Although M<4 aftershocks from both activities extended to the end of the Karlıova segment where the Karlıova triple junction joins the NAF, there have been no M>5 earthquakes in the Palu, Ilıca, and Karlıova segments since 2010. Therefore, we selected the region covering these segments for the investigation since it is the relatively seismically inactive area of the EAF. Our major objective is to understand the impact of the 2020 Doğanyol-Sivrice and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes and subsequent post-seismic deformation period on the silent region through the analyses of InSAR (SBAS) and GNSS time series, incorporated with analyses of coseismic deformation, Coulomb Stress Change, and b-value variation. To achieve this aim, ISCE2 and Mintpy utilities were used in the calculation of the InSAR time-series and GAMIT/GLOBK is used to construct GNSS time-series. The results from multiple-data analyses enable a comprehensive understanding of the tectonic setting as well as to understand whether the segments in the region are locked or experiencing any creep activity.

How to cite: Zoroğlu, Ç. S., Kaya Eken, T., Gedik, M., Eken, T., and Özener, H.: Impact of the 2020 Elazığ and 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes on the Palu–Ilıca–Karlıova Segments using InSAR, GNSS, and Seismotectonic Analyses, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16169, 2026.

EGU26-16423 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.1

Unraveling Scaling Properties of Slow Slip Events through Kinematic Simulations 

Yu-Sheng Sun, Diego Melgar, and Amanda Thomas

A long-standing debate in geophysics concerns the moment–duration scaling of fast and slow earthquakes. While many studies suggest that slow slip events (SSEs) follow a linear moment–duration relationship, in contrast to the cubic scaling typical of regular earthquakes, some observational and modeling studies have reported cubic-like scaling in some SSEs, raising questions about the physical origin of these differences. In this study, we investigate the scaling properties of SSEs using kinematic simulations constrained by empirical source scaling relationships specific to slow slip, combined with stochastic kinematic approaches widely used for regular earthquake rupture modeling. The simulations are conducted on realistic fault geometry in the Cascadia subduction zone and incorporate kinematic constraints characteristic of slow slip. Synthetic SSE scenarios are generated over a wide range of moments and rupture dimensions, allowing systematic exploration of moment–duration behavior without prescribing rupture duration a priori. Our results are consistent with observations and show that the total duration of the simulated SSEs lies near the upper envelope of a cubic scaling trend (M ∝ T³) at smaller moments and gradually transitions toward a linear scaling (M ∝ T) with increasing moment magnitude. When event duration is identified using threshold-based criteria, the resulting moment–duration scaling appears predominantly linear. This finding suggests that biases introduced by observational criteria influence the inferred scaling relationships, providing an explanation for why some studies report linear scaling whereas others report cubic scaling. Furthermore, these results suggest that slow slip events involve rupture processes fundamentally distinct from those of regular earthquakes, as their apparent duration and scaling behavior emerge from kinematic constraints characteristic of slow slip.

How to cite: Sun, Y.-S., Melgar, D., and Thomas, A.: Unraveling Scaling Properties of Slow Slip Events through Kinematic Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16423, 2026.

EGU26-17270 | Orals | SM4.1

Fault Activation and Earthquake Ruptures at the BedrettoLab 

Men-Andrin Meier, Paul Selvadurai, Valentin Gischig, Marian Hertrich, Antonio Rinaldi, Alba Zappone, Elisa Tinti, Elena Spagnuolo, Reza Jalali, Florian Amann, Massimo Cocco, Stefan Wiemer, and Domenico Giardini and the Bedretto and FEAR teams

After more than 5 years of design, preparation and build-out, the Earthquake Physics Testbed at the Bedretto Underground Laboratory for Geosciences and Geoenergies ('BedrettoLab') is going into full operation in spring 2026. The testbed is being built for the Fault Activation and Earthquake Rupture (FEAR) project, around a carefully selected and heavily instrumented target fault zone at more than 1km depth. The fault is a steeply dipping, structurally immature fault and fracture zone, which, in the current stress field has oblique-normal faulting kinematics. To facilitate instrumentation, we have excavated a 110m long fault-parallel tunnel at a horizontal distance of 40 m from the fault. Using this access tunnel, we are densely instrumenting a volume of ca 100 x 100 x 200 m3 around the target fault zone, by placing over 200 sensors, of 25 different sensor types, and several hundred metres of fibre optics sensing cables, in over 40 boreholes.

Once completed, we will use multi-packer systems in 3 fault-crossing stimulation boreholes to re-activate the target fault with fluid injections. In a series of experiments we attempt to trigger dynamic ruptures with magnitudes of ~1.0, i.e. ruptures with fault dimensions of 10 - 100m. The goal is to resolve and study the micro-physical processes that govern fault preparation, earthquake nucleation, rupture dynamics and termination, as well as post-seismic processes, with a resolution and sensitivity that is not achievable for natural, tectonic earthquakes. In this talk we present the first results from the 'FEAR-2' experiment, the first experiment where we inject directly into the main segment of the target fault zone, and present the plans for more experiments in 2026 - 2027.

How to cite: Meier, M.-A., Selvadurai, P., Gischig, V., Hertrich, M., Rinaldi, A., Zappone, A., Tinti, E., Spagnuolo, E., Jalali, R., Amann, F., Cocco, M., Wiemer, S., and Giardini, D. and the Bedretto and FEAR teams: Fault Activation and Earthquake Ruptures at the BedrettoLab, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17270, 2026.

EGU26-20158 | ECS | Orals | SM4.1

What Do Early Source Time Functions Reveal About Rupture Dynamics in Laboratory Experiments?  

Feyza Arzu, Yuqing Xie, Cedric Twardzik, Barnaby Fryer, Federica Paglialunga, Jean Paul Ampuero, and François Passelègue

The predictability of the final size of an ongoing rupture remains a fundamental open question in earthquake physics. If small and large earthquakes differ during their earliest stages, then information contained in the initial part of the source time function (STF) could provide a clue about the final rupture size, representing a major potential improvement for early warning systems. Testing this hypothesis using natural earthquakes is challenging because STFs are indirectly inferred, rupture dimensions are uncertain, and observational catalogs are incomplete.

To overcome these limitations, we built a new experimental catalog of laboratory earthquakes with a wide range of contained rupture lengths. Laboratory earthquakes were conducted using a biaxial apparatus holding PMMA plates, allowing controlled conditions and direct observations of rupture processes. We compute STFs using three independent approaches: (1) true STFs obtained via digital image correlation using a high-speed camera, (2) inferred STFs from quasi-static spatio-temporal slip inversions using 20 near-field accelerometers, and (3) approximate STFs estimated using a far-field acoustic sensor.

Our results show no robust relationship between final rupture length and the initial slope of the STF. Instead, we observe a relationship between the initial slope of the STF and the rupture velocity: events with higher initial rupture velocities exhibit steeper initial slope of the STF. Our results are supported by analytical results. These observations suggest that the initial growth of the STF mainly reflects rupture dynamics and nucleation processes rather than the ultimate size of the event. In this laboratory system, any information about final rupture length appears to emerge in the STF only once the rupture has grown to a length that is significant compared to its final size.

How to cite: Arzu, F., Xie, Y., Twardzik, C., Fryer, B., Paglialunga, F., Ampuero, J. P., and Passelègue, F.: What Do Early Source Time Functions Reveal About Rupture Dynamics in Laboratory Experiments? , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20158, 2026.

EGU26-21439 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.1

Wasserstein Distance (W2) Gradient-based Multi-Point-Source (MPS) Inversion 

Yuan Yuan and Han Yue

In seismology, a misfit function is commonly used to quantify the similarity between recorded and model-predicted waveforms. In comparison with the L2 norm, the Wasserstein distance (W2 norm) mitigates the “cycle skipping” problem and offers a more effective waveform similarity measurement for optimization purposes. The W2 norm avoids local minima and enables efficient gradient-based methods to be adopted in waveform inversions. In this study, we develop an algorithm based on W2 norm for multi-point-source models of large earthquakes. We employ Basin Hopping and L-BFGS-B for global and local optimizations, respectively, to invert for the locations, times, moments, and focal mechanisms of multiple point sources to describe the rupture processes of large earthquakes.We develop a novel method that combines W2 and L2 norms to avoid non-uniqueness and enhance the robustness and accuracy of the inversion process. Comprehensive synthetic tests are conducted to demonstrate the good performance in waveform fitting accuracy, computational efficiency, and inversion stability for multi-point-source parameters. Application to the 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto earthquake shows promising results in effectively balancing accuracy and computational demands while characterizing the event's complex rupture process. Our inversion method provides a rapid and effective multi-point-source inversion tool that can deliver reliable constraints on earthquake rupture processes.

How to cite: Yuan, Y. and Yue, H.: Wasserstein Distance (W2) Gradient-based Multi-Point-Source (MPS) Inversion, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21439, 2026.

EGU26-21919 | ECS | Orals | SM4.1

Tidal and hydrological seismicity modulations reveal pore fluid diffusion during earthquake nucleation 

Zeyan Zhao, Lian Xue, Roland Bürgmann, Elías R. Heimisson, Weifan Lu, and Han Yue

The occurrence of seismic events can be modulated by external periodic stress perturbations, such as daily tidal stress and annual hydrological stress. Such periodic modulations are crucial for understanding earthquake triggering, yet their underlying physical mechanisms are not fully understood. Here, we find that ordinary earthquakes (OEs) and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) on the Central San Andreas Fault (CSAF) are more sensitive to the long-period hydrological and the short-period tidal loadings, respectively. These different frequency-dependent modulations suggest pore fluid diffusion during the noninstantaneous earthquake nucleation and confirm different nucleation times of OEs and LFEs. We constrain the depth-varying physical properties of the CSAF and reveal that fluid content distribution and loading conditions fundamentally control slow-to-fast fault slip behaviors. Our study provides an alternative perspective to understand earthquake nucleation by using the information in periodic seismicity modulations, which can be applicable to subduction zones where similar slip behavior transitions occur.

How to cite: Zhao, Z., Xue, L., Bürgmann, R., Heimisson, E. R., Lu, W., and Yue, H.: Tidal and hydrological seismicity modulations reveal pore fluid diffusion during earthquake nucleation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21919, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21919, 2026.

EGU26-2406 | ECS | Orals | SM4.3

Does the Tidal Sensitivity of Tectonic Tremors Constrain Local Stress Orientation? 

Ruyu Yan, Satoshi Ide, Xiaodong Chen, and Heping Sun

The activity of tectonic tremor, which is high-frequency endmember of slow earthquakes, is useful for gaining insights into the physical processes that govern slow slips and geodynamic activities along the plate boundary. While the focal mechanism of tremors is estimated from seismic waveforms, the stress states that trigger tremors are largely unknown in most areas. An exponential relationship exists between tremor rate and tidal shear stress, and the solution for a tidal sensitivity parameter can be determined using the maximum likelihood method. The likelihood function includes stress orientation, which can also be optimized. Therefore, the optimized stress orientation may have relation to their focal mechanism. In this study, we initially present a method for obtaining the optimal stress orientation with a double-couple constraint and illustrate its effectiveness by applying it to tectonic tremors in western Japan from 2004 to 2009. Our results show that, without any geometric constraints, the stress orientations derived from tidal sensitivity do not match those suggested by focal mechanisms. When we limit the analysis to a plane aligned with the local plate interface, however, some of the preferred orientations become consistent with the focal-mechanism solutions. This indicates that tidal sensitivity on its own cannot reliably determine the slip or stress orientations of slow deformation, because fault slip is guided by pre-existing weak planes rather than being free to occur in any direction. This approach introduces a novel perspective for investigating geodynamic processes occurring within active plate boundaries.

How to cite: Yan, R., Ide, S., Chen, X., and Sun, H.: Does the Tidal Sensitivity of Tectonic Tremors Constrain Local Stress Orientation?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2406, 2026.

Short-term slow slip events (S-SSEs) occur at depths greater than ~30 km along the Nankai subduction zone in southwest Japan. Previous studies have successfully detected these events using GNSS data and characterized their spatial distribution along the subduction interface. However, fundamental questions remain regarding their role in the slip budget: what fraction of accumulated interseismic strain do S-SSEs release, and does their behavior remain stationary over time? Addressing these questions requires resolving the temporal evolution of S-SSE slip patterns — an aspect that has remained largely unexplored.

Here, we analyze nearly two decades of GNSS data to quantify the slip contribution of S-SSEs and to investigate their temporal evolution. To resolve these small-amplitude, short-lived signals, we leverage the exceptional density of the GNSS network (>700 stations) by stacking time series from triplets of nearby stations, enhancing the signal-to-noise ratio. Using tremor and LFE timing to synchronize the detection, we measure offsets before and after each episode and infer local slip rates. By applying this approach across multiple successive time windows, which has not been done in Nankai or other subduction zones, we track how slip patterns evolve through time.

We find that S-SSEs release a significant fraction of accumulated slip within the tremor/LFEs zone (between 40 and 30%, which is consistent with the long-term coupling of 60%). Still, this contribution and the associated spatial slip pattern vary across different time periods. Our results reveal that S-SSE behavior is not stationary: the along-strike slip distribution and slip rates show systematic changes over multi-year timescales. We also observe that S-SSE slip occasionally extends to shallower depths, approaching the base of the seismogenic zone.

These spatio-temporal variations in slow slip provide new constraints on the evolution of interplate coupling and on how stress accumulation in the seismogenic zone may be modulated by deeper slow slip processes.

How to cite: Maubant, L., Itoh, Y., and Kato, A.:  Tracking short-term slow slip along Nankai with GNSS: temporal evolution of slip rate and interaction with the seismogenic zone , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3646, 2026.

EGU26-4076 | Posters on site | SM4.3

Improvements to Cross-Station Analysis of Tectonic Tremor  

Michael Bostock, Charles Sammis, and Nicolas Perez Estay

Cross-station analysis of tectonic tremor, as introduced by John Armbruster for long (150 s) windows and extended by Allan Rubin to short (4 s) windows, has afforded the highest precision mapping of tremor locations achieved to date. Cross-station locations have been used to a) reveal tremor epicentral distributions over broad (to ~104 km2) areas that are significantly sparser than those portrayed by more commonly used envelope-correlation methods; b) document a variety of tremor (and by inference slow-slip) propagation modes, and c) place tremor in a structural context leading to insights into its generation and that of slow slip more generally. In particular, our work on c) suggests that tremor occurs within the upper layer of oceanic metabasalt as the expression of disaggregation and comminution associated with underplating. The success of cross-station analysis in tremor characterization to date warrants further investigation and development of the methodology. In this presentation, we detail two improvements.  The first, applicable to both long and short windows, concerns the judicious analysis of traveltime circuits and binomial coefficients ("n choose 3") corresponding to triples of waveforms formed from many (n ≥ 4) stations. This leads to effective quality-control measures for balancing location precision versus accuracy and the leveraging of cross-event information. The second improvement concerns short windows and relies on low frequency earthquake template waveforms that characterize propagation characteristics between a localized tremor source region and surface stations. Past efforts at cross-station tremor detection have relied upon the similarity of tremor waveforms across stations. This condition can be relaxed through the use of phase normalization afforded by template waveforms thereby enabling inclusion of larger station complements and resulting in increased number and quality of detections. We demonstrate these improvements on deep tremor recordings from southern Vancouver Island between 2003-2006 and 2022-2025.

How to cite: Bostock, M., Sammis, C., and Perez Estay, N.: Improvements to Cross-Station Analysis of Tectonic Tremor , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4076, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4076, 2026.

EGU26-4734 | Posters on site | SM4.3

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Tectonic Tremor in California 

Satoshi Ide and Weifan Lu

California, as a transform plate boundary, provides a distinctive tectonic setting and an ideal natural laboratory for investigating tectonic tremor and the slow deformation associated with plate motion. By analyzing continuous seismic records across multiple stations with the envelope correlation method, we identified ∼66,000 tremor events from 2000 to 2024. These events exhibit waveform characteristics consistent with tectonic tremors observed elsewhere. Beyond the previously documented central section of the San Andreas fault, we identify several new tremor clusters, primarily concentrated near the Mendocino Triple Junction and within the Big Bend segment. Our results suggest that tremor events near the Mendocino Triple Junction may mark the southern edge of the Cascadia subduction zone, while tremor events in the Big Bend region, located within the rupture zone of the 1857 M7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake, could have implications for regional seismic hazard.

How to cite: Ide, S. and Lu, W.: Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Tectonic Tremor in California, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4734, 2026.

EGU26-6825 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.3

Probing the mechanism of slow slip events along the central North Anatolian Fault Zone 

Andrea Perez-Silva, Patricia Martínez-Garzón, and So Ozawa

Along the central section of North Anatolian Fault Zone, which marks the boundary between the Eurasian and Anatolian plates, subsurface creep has been detected since the 1970s. This creep localizes within a ~60-70 km-long segment along-strike, known as the Ismetpasa segment. Measurements from creepmeters, GNSS and InSAR, show that aseismic slip occurs as episodic events, or slow slip events (SSEs), that last a few weeks, occur approx. every 2.5 years, and extend to a depth of 5 – 6 km. Notably, the location of these SSEs coincides with a region of shallow locking depth.  Several mechanisms have proposed to explain their occurrence, including elevated pore-fluid pressure, variation in fault-zone composition, and changes in stressing rates associated with the shallower locking depth. To understand the mechanisms that govern these events, we carry out 3D numerical simulations using rate and state friction. In our model, we explore the effect of effective normal stress, long-term slip rate distribution and friction parameters on the resulting slip behavior. We consider a range of model setups and identify scenarios that reproduce the first-order characteristics of Ismetpasa SSEs. Our results provide insights into the conditions that promote shallow and deep slow-slip on continental strike-slip faults.

 

How to cite: Perez-Silva, A., Martínez-Garzón, P., and Ozawa, S.: Probing the mechanism of slow slip events along the central North Anatolian Fault Zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6825, 2026.

EGU26-9824 | Orals | SM4.3

Theoretical Constraints on Tidal Triggering of Slow Earthquakes 

Harsha Bhat, Yishuo Zhuo, Ankit Gupta, Hideo Aochi, Alexandre Schubnel, and Satoshi Ide

Tidal stress is a periodic stress acting globally on the Earth, driven primarily by
the gravitational forcing of the Moon and the Sun. Understanding how tidal
stress can trigger seismic events is essential for constraining tectonic
environments that are sensitive to small, periodic stress perturbations.
Here we investigate tidal triggering on stable sliding, velocity-weakening (VW)
rate-and-state frictional (RSF) faults using a spring-block framework. We first
apply idealized step-like and boxcar normal stress perturbations to
demonstrate a resonance-like amplification of slip rate when the perturbation
duration approaches the intrinsic RSF time scale. Building on this observation,
we perform non-dimensional analyses and numerical simulations with
sinusoidal tidal-like perturbations to identify the key parameters controlling
tidal triggering and their admissible ranges. We further characterize the
triggered events through observable quantities, including radiation efficiency
and tidal phase. Our results show that resonance effects allow tidal stress to trigger both
regular periodic and complex temporal slip events on otherwise stable sliding
VW faults. The triggering behavior is primarily controlled by two non-
dimensional parameters: the normalized perturbation period and the
normalized perturbation amplitude. Increasing the normalized period shifts
event timing from peak tidal stress toward the maximum stress rate, whereas
increasing the normalized amplitude promotes a transition from slow to fast
slip events. The parameter space permitting tidally triggered slip events
suggests that the RSF parameter,$a\sigma$, which characterizes the
instantaneous frictional strength of an interface, should not exceed tens to
hundreds of kilopascals, and that the characteristic slip distance for frictional
weakening is likely on the order of micrometers.

How to cite: Bhat, H., Zhuo, Y., Gupta, A., Aochi, H., Schubnel, A., and Ide, S.: Theoretical Constraints on Tidal Triggering of Slow Earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9824, 2026.

EGU26-10077 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.3

Constraining mechanisms for dynamically triggered Sudden Displacement Events (SDEs) in the northern Chilean Subduction Forearc using collocated creepmeter and broadband seismic data 

Ricarda M. Wache, Gian Maria Bocchini, Rebecca M. Harrington, Pia Victor, Yajing Liu, and Meng "Matt" Wei

The Atacama Fault System is located in the northern Chilean subduction forearc region and hosts a complex system of trench-parallel faults with mapped surface ruptures. Previous work based on continuous monitoring of aseismic fault slip by the IPOC Creepmeter Array over the last ~15 years has shown that the Chomache, Cerro Fortuna, Salar del Carmen, and Mejillones Faults host Sudden Displacement Events (SDEs) that are often triggered by passing seismic waves, showing a clear temporal correlation between SDE signals and local, as well as teleseismic, earthquakes. Here we present a new study using data from two creepmeter sites that are instrumented with two collocated broadband seismometers to investigate the correlation between SDEs, the ground motions of preceding earthquakes, and the consistency of transient stress changes with observed deformation inferred from the creepmeter time series.

Our analysis reveals two primary observations. First, we identify a seasonal trend in the polarity of SDEs, suggesting modulation of the system response over the annual cycle. Second, we observe a dependency between the peak ground velocity (PGV) of the preceding earthquakes recorded by the collocated seismometers and SDE occurrence. We observe an absence of SDEs below a PGV threshold of approximately 0.07–0.15 cm/s that suggests that the triggering mechanism is at least partly amplitude-controlled.

Based on the apparent seasonal polarity changes and dependence on ground shaking, we will present results that test whether SDEs reflect tectonic fault slip processes or a non-tectonic, seasonally modulated response of near-surface sediments to dynamic triggering. We will test the hypothesis using the back azimuth of triggering seismic waves to resolve the dynamic stresses imposed on the well-constrained geometry of the monitored fault planes in comparison to the volumetric changes in the surrounding fault zone. This study will contribute to a deeper understanding of dynamic triggering and the underlying processes that control fault behavior in forearc settings.

How to cite: Wache, R. M., Bocchini, G. M., Harrington, R. M., Victor, P., Liu, Y., and Wei, M. ".: Constraining mechanisms for dynamically triggered Sudden Displacement Events (SDEs) in the northern Chilean Subduction Forearc using collocated creepmeter and broadband seismic data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10077, 2026.

EGU26-10951 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.3

First look at seafloor geodetical pressure data acquired during a large 2024 Slow-Slip-Event at the Hikurangi Margin offshore New Zealand 

Johannes Gehrig, Ahyoung Ku, Laura Wallace, Spahr Webb, D. Randolph Watts, Ryota Hino, Yoshihiro Ito, Matt Wei, Neville Palmer, and Katie Jacobs

Over the last two decades, the importance of Slow Slip Events (SSEs) in the deformation and seismic cycle of subduction zones has become more widely recognized. Knowledge of the evolution and slip distribution during SSEs can provide key insights into processes that influence SSE occurrence and their relationship to seismic slip. However, the offshore nature of many SSEs makes them difficult to observe with onshore geodetic methods alone, necessitating the deployment of seafloor-geodetic instruments to detect seabed deformation.

The Hikurangi subduction zone offshore New Zealand is characterized by frequent, large SSEs, and previous experiments have shown that such events regularly produce up to a few centimetres of seabed uplift that is detectable using seafloor pressure data. We are presenting a first look on ocean bottom pressure data recovered from the most recent GONDOR deployment across the northern Hikurangi subduction zone. The 2022-2025 GONDOR project is the largest seafloor geodetic experiment to date at Hikurangi, with over 50 seafloor instruments deployed in a dense array with several kilometres spacing, of which 39 were fitted with Absolute Pressure Gauges (APG) to detect vertical displacement of the seabed. 13 of these instruments have self-calibrating A-0-A sensors, enabling mitigation of instrument drift from the pressure record. The deployment is collocated with an IODP CORK observatory, allowing for future ground truthing of the pressure data and includes two arrays of Direct-Path-Acoustic sensors, giving horizontal deformation information of SSEs. During the 2024/2025 period, at least three large SSEs have occurred beneath the array, one beneath the centre and one each beneath the northern and southern subarrays.

I will present preliminary results from our analysis of seafloor pressure data, using depth-matched reference sites to mitigate oceanographic noise. I will also outline a processing workflow for pressure data analysis, including improved drift-removal techniques that do not depend on prolonged periods of oceanographic calm and are robust to sensor vertical displacement during the initial deployment phase when drift is most rapid. Further, I will explore the advantages of interspersing A-0-A instruments with conventional APGs for more robust drift mitigation to enable resolution of SSE vertical displacement during the early deployment phase.

How to cite: Gehrig, J., Ku, A., Wallace, L., Webb, S., Watts, D. R., Hino, R., Ito, Y., Wei, M., Palmer, N., and Jacobs, K.: First look at seafloor geodetical pressure data acquired during a large 2024 Slow-Slip-Event at the Hikurangi Margin offshore New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10951, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10951, 2026.

EGU26-11003 | ECS | Orals | SM4.3

Automatic detection of slow slip events using InSAR data: Application to the North Anatolian Fault 

Estelle Neyrinck, Baptiste Rousset, Cécile Doubre, Luis Rivera, Cécile Lasserre, Marie-Pierre Doin, Philippe Durand, and Flatsim Team

A better understanding of aseismic slip dynamics throughout the seismic cycle is essential to refine seismic hazard estimates. Analysis of the Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time series in the last decades has proved its efficiency to detect and characterize slow slip events (SSE), especially on strike-slip segments. However, the implementation of automatic SSE detection methods is needed to overcome the large incoming flow of data. Here, we adapted the geodetic matched filter approach developed for GNSS time series by Rousset et al. (2017) to InSAR time series. The method is computing physics-based dislocation slip models corresponding to synthetic reconstructions of SSEs, that are correlated with InSAR time series, taking advantage of the high spatial density of InSAR observations. By comparing true and false detections on synthetic tests including InSAR realistic noise, we derive probabilistic estimates of the true detections as a function of SSE magnitudes and depths. We show that this method enables the detection with ≥ 90 % confidence of shallow SSEs with magnitudes larger than 4.5 using horizontal east-west InSAR time series. And it can detect events with magnitude larger than 4.25 with ≥ 45 % confidence. We applied this method along both creeping segments of the North Anatolian Fault - Izmit and Ismetpasa, by using the InSAR time series from 2016 to 2021 automatically processed in the framework of the FLATSIM project between CNES and FormaTerre by using Sentinel-1 SAR images and based on the NSBAS processing chain (Doin et al., 2011; Thollard et al., 2021). It detected without any prior knowledge three transient events already reported by previous studies along the Izmit segment (Aslan et al., 2019; Neyrinck et al., 2024), and two transient events also already reported by previous studies along the Ismetpasa one (Jolivet et al., 2023; Özdemir et al., 2025). Based on a weighted stacked time series associated with the detections, we estimate a magnitude for these events ranging from 4.0 to 5.0, also compatible with previous estimates. Applying this method on worldwide strike-slip fault segments may allow a rapid detection and a first order characterization of transient slip events.

How to cite: Neyrinck, E., Rousset, B., Doubre, C., Rivera, L., Lasserre, C., Doin, M.-P., Durand, P., and Team, F.: Automatic detection of slow slip events using InSAR data: Application to the North Anatolian Fault, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11003, 2026.

EGU26-11523 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.3

Role of Subducted Seamounts in Earthquake Rupture and Aseismic Slip: Insights from Multi-Cycle Simulations 

Yue Liu, Duo Li, Hongfeng Yang, Charles Williams, and Zhigang Shao

Shallow slow slip events (SSEs) within seismogenic zones have been increasingly reported to be related to subducted seamounts (Wang and Bilek, 2014; Vallée et al., 2013; Wallace et al., 2016; Yokota and Ishikawa, 2016). However, the underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon is unclear. Slow slip events are commonly inferred to occur under high pore-pressure conditions, based on analyses of low-frequency seismic spectra and numerical simulations (Rogers and Dragert, 2003; Shelly et al., 2006; Liu and Rice, 2009; Li and Liu, 2016). Investigating the role of seamounts in alternating shallow SSEs and coseismic rupture propagation will provide important insights into long-term fault slip budgets. Here we conduct numerical simulations in the framework of rate-and-state dependent friction with the “aging” evolution law, in which a curved interface representing the subducted seamount is set in a velocity weakening zone on a two-dimensional subducted fault model. Our preliminary results suggest: 1) Slow slip events and slow aseismic creep can appear in the seamount leading area, where coseismic slip is suppressed; 2) the seamount can play a crucial role in stopping large rupture propagation when it is located at intermediate depths within the velocity-weakening zone; 3) irregular geometry will introduce diversity in long-term slip partitioning on the subduction fault regardless of constant velocity-weakening friction and consistently effective normal stress. This study will provide invaluable insights on understanding the interactions between large earthquakes and aseismic slip, as well as the influence of fault geometry such as a subducted seamount.

Reference:

  • Li, D., and Y. Liu (2016), Spatiotemporal evolution of slow slip events in a nonplanar fault model for northern Cascadia subduction zone, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 121, 6828–6845.
  • Liu, Y., and J. R. Rice (2009), Slow slip predictions based on granite and gabbro friction data compared to GPS measurements in northern Cascadia, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 114(B9).
  • Rogers, G., and H. Dragert (2003), Episodic Tremor and Slip on the Cascadia Subduction Zone: The Chatter of Silent Slip. Science, 300, 1942-1943.
  • Shelly, D., Beroza, G., Ide, S., et al. (2006), Low-frequency earthquakes in Shikoku, Japan, and their relationship to episodic tremor and slip. Nature, 442, 188–191.
  • Vallée, M., Nocquet, J. M., Battaglia, J., et al. (2013), Intense interface seismicity triggered by a shallow slow slip event in the Central Ecuador subduction zone. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 118(6), 2965-2981.
  • Wallace, L. M., Webb, S. C., Ito, Y., et al. (2016), Slow slip near the trench at the Hikurangi subduction zone, New Zealand. Science, 352(6286), 701-704.
  • Wang, K., and S. L. Bilek (2014), Invited review paper: Fault creep caused by subduction of rough seafloor relief. Tectonophysics, 610, 1-24.
  • Yokota, Y., and T. Ishikawa (2020), Shallow slow slip events along the Nankai Trough detected by GNSS-A. Science Advance, 6 (3): eaay5786.

 

 

How to cite: Liu, Y., Li, D., Yang, H., Williams, C., and Shao, Z.: Role of Subducted Seamounts in Earthquake Rupture and Aseismic Slip: Insights from Multi-Cycle Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11523, 2026.

EGU26-15280 | Orals | SM4.3

Recent Advances in Tectonic Tremor Research  

Satoshi Ide

Since its discovery about 25 years ago, tectonic tremor has been identified in many subduction zones and transform plate boundaries worldwide, greatly advancing our understanding of regional tectonics and earthquake generation processes. Tremor detection and catalog construction continue to progress in many regions. In this presentation, I review recent advances made by our group over the past several years.

Regarding tremor detection methods, although the use of AI has become increasingly common, the envelope-based approach remains highly effective. The code developed by Mizuno and Ide (2019, EPS) is openly available on GitHub (https://github.com/not522/MizunoIde2019), and has facilitated new tremor detections in various regions. Using newly released continuous seismic data from Taiwan, Ide and Chen (2024, GRL) revealed extensive tremor activity beneath the Central Range. Azúa et al. (2025, GRL) demonstrated that tremor near the Chile Triple Junction occurs close to a slab window. Lu and Ide (2026, EGU) detected previously unrecognized tremor in California through a comprehensive analysis of statewide continuous seismic data, particularly near the Mendocino Triple Junction and the Big Bend of the San Andreas Fault. Although distinguishing tremor from regular earthquakes has long been difficult, Yano and Ide (2024, GRL) developed a clustering-based approach that discriminates tremor from ordinary earthquakes using waveform and hypocentral features.

Estimating source mechanisms is essential for assessing the tectonic roles of tremor. Since Ide and Yabe (2014), stacked tremor signals have been used to extract very low-frequency components and perform moment tensor analyses in several regions. This method becomes increasingly stable as more data accumulate. Utilizing a new Taiwan tremor catalog, Hua et al. (2026, Tectonophysics) showed that tremor beneath the Central Range exhibits reverse-faulting mechanisms consistent with active mountain building. Mechanism estimates near the Mendocino Triple Junction also suggest tremor occurring along the lateral surface of the subducting slab.

Probabilistic modeling of tremor occurrence is another important research direction. Ide and Nomura (2022, EPS) applied renewal processes to model tremor as a time series at a given location, but capturing the characteristic spatiotemporal migration of tremor required more complex models. Yano et al. (2026, JGR) developed a stochastic process model incorporating spatial interactions and demonstrated that it outperforms renewal-based models. Such standardized models provide a basis for relating tremor behavior to tectonic processes and for detecting anomalies in otherwise steady tremor activity.

 

How to cite: Ide, S.: Recent Advances in Tectonic Tremor Research , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15280, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15280, 2026.

EGU26-16342 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.3

Modelling the shallow crustal structure of the Guerrero seismic gap from gravity data 

Abraham Diaz de leon, Isaias Bañales, and Yoshihiro Ito

The subduction zone in the Mexican Pacific comprises a complex tectonic environment of interacting convergent active margin plates. Along the Middle American Trench (MAT), the Cocos and Rivera plates subduct beneath the North American and Caribbean plates, generating an irregular distribution of seismicity due to variations in the subduction angle of the slab. The Guerrero Seismic Gap (GGap) is a ~140 km segment at the Cocos-North America plate boundary. Since 1911 there has been no record of a large subduction thrust earthquake in the NW portion of the GGap, and taking into account the seismic evolution and subduction dynamics, specialists see a possible scenario of a Mw ~8.2 earthquake in the area. Therefore, understanding the nature of the rupture process in the crust is a fundamental question of this study.

Gravity techniques are accurate methods to investigate the crustal configuration and define the structure in the subducting slab. In this project, data from the global satellite model of Sandwell et al., 2014, we intend to generate a model of the density distribution in the shallow crust in the GGap area. The shallow crust is of particular interest because lateral heterogeneity in the slab zone modifies subduction dynamics. These heterogeneities comprise seafloor structures (e.g., seamounts) and may be key to studying the seismogenic zone of the Mexican subduction and better assessing its risk. Some studies show how the bathymetric relief on the seafloor, when it enters subduction, modifies the mechanical properties at the interface between the subducting plate and the overriding plate. This arrangement can be an important factor because it can affect the distribution of large earthquakes.

Gravimetric inversion methods can solve subsurface mapping problems by determining the density and/or depth of the layers that comprise it. Here, we will use statistical methods of gravity inversion to relate the parameters (density) to the observed data. To do this, we will use a Bayesian approach, defining our likelihood functions, evaluating the forward map, and our prior function, smoothed using Markov Random Fields, which restricts the field values to their neighboring dependencies.

The objective of this work is to conduct a detailed analysis of the surface crust, its configuration, and its relationship with seismicity in the area, in order to improve understanding of subduction dynamics and seismic risk assessment.

How to cite: Diaz de leon, A., Bañales, I., and Ito, Y.: Modelling the shallow crustal structure of the Guerrero seismic gap from gravity data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16342, 2026.

EGU26-16699 | Posters on site | SM4.3

A Continuum of Laboratory Fault Slip Reveals Distinct Seismic Energy Partitioning from Slow to Fast Slip 

Marco Maria Scuderi, Federico Pignalberi, Giacomo Mastella, Carolina Giorgetti, and Chris Marone

Understanding the physical controls on the transition between slow and fast earthquakes remains a fundamental challenge in earthquake physics. Here we show, through laboratory experiments on granular quartz gouge simulating natural fault zones, that both slow and fast slip can emerge on the same fault under identical stress conditions. The transition between slip modes is governed by the elastodynamic interaction between the fault and its surroundings. By systematically varying system stiffness at constant normal stress, we observe a continuous spectrum of slip behavior from stable sliding to slow events and ultimately fast rupture. Continuous acoustic monitoring reveals distinct seismic signatures: slow slip produces swarms of small events, while fast slip generates high-amplitude energy bursts. Continuous scaling of breakdown work with seismic moment supports a unified physical mechanism. Moment-duration scaling highlights a key transition in energy partitioning: in slow events, acoustic energy accounts for a minor portion of slip duration, whereas in fast events it contributes a much larger portion, indicating a shift in how seismic energy is radiated across slip modes. These findings suggest that slow and fast earthquakes are not distinct phenomena but reflect end-members of a fault slip continuum.

How to cite: Scuderi, M. M., Pignalberi, F., Mastella, G., Giorgetti, C., and Marone, C.: A Continuum of Laboratory Fault Slip Reveals Distinct Seismic Energy Partitioning from Slow to Fast Slip, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16699, 2026.

EGU26-16716 | ECS | Orals | SM4.3

Slow-slip and low-frequency earthquakes within the shallow, intraplate, Palghar seismic swarm in Western India 

Ratna Bhagat, Kattumadam M. Sreejith, Pathikrit Bhattacharya, Harsha S. Bhat, Claudio Satriano, and Vineet K. Gahalaut

At plate boundaries, the coexistence of classical earthquakes, low-frequency seismicity, and slow slip events is commonly attributed to depth-dependent frictional heterogeneity. Recent numerical studies demonstrate that similar complexity can also emerge from fault–fault interactions even in the absence of frictional heterogeneities. Here we show that this entire spectrum of plate-boundary-style slip processes occurs within an intraplate setting, confined to the upper ~8 km of the crust, during the Palghar earthquake swarm in western India.

Since late 2018, sustained seismicity has persisted within a spatially confined intraplate fault zone traditionally considered tectonically stable. By integrating data from two independent seismic networks (NGRI and NCS), we construct a unified, high-resolution earthquake catalog. Automated detection and precise relocations of 8,629 events with eight or more observations delineate two closely spaced, steeply dipping N–S–striking faults at depths of 6–8 km that host most of the seismicity. The same two fault structures are independently identified through the modeling of surface deformation data within the swarm duration from InSAR. The swarm exhibits broadband rupture behavior, showing both low-frequency events and classical earthquakes, and is characterized by a wide range of stress drops. Moment tensor solutions indicate predominantly normal faulting, consistent with the rake of geodetically inferred slip. InSAR observations further show that cumulative geodetic moment release exceeds the seismic moment by nearly two orders of magnitude, demonstrating that aseismic slip dominates the total strain budget. Both seismicity and slow slip initiate on the western fault and evolve coherently before migrating to the eastern structure. The high-resolution relocated seismicity aligns closely with the advancing front of aseismic slip on both faults, revealing a clear coevolution and coupled migration of seismicity and aseismic deformation. 

Together, these observations show that intraplate fault systems can host the same range of slip behaviors observed at plate boundaries, from classical earthquakes to slow slip, driven by migrating aseismic deformation and fault–fault interactions. Intraplate earthquake swarms, therefore, offer natural laboratories for understanding slip processes and fault interactions beyond plate boundaries.

How to cite: Bhagat, R., Sreejith, K. M., Bhattacharya, P., Bhat, H. S., Satriano, C., and Gahalaut, V. K.: Slow-slip and low-frequency earthquakes within the shallow, intraplate, Palghar seismic swarm in Western India, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16716, 2026.

EGU26-17731 | Orals | SM4.3

The gradual evolution of friction following a normal stress step reflects changes in contact strength, not contact area 

Pathikrit Bhattacharya, Terry E. Tullis, Allan M. Rubin, Nicholas M. Beeler, and Nir Z. Badt

The rate-state friction equations represent the most widely used framework to describe friction evolution in rocks and in models of earthquakes. Despite their popularity, the notion of ‘state’ evolution of the frictional interface within this framework has been relatively poorly understood for fifty years. Empirically, the state of a frictional interface has been found to evolve with slip and/or time, and in response to abrupt changes in normal stress, but the microprocesses responsible for this evolution are unclear. Under physical conditions relevant to most shallow crustal earthquakes, frictional interfaces are in contact only at numerous smaller regions called asperities, and the real contact area is expected to be a rather modest fraction of the nominal contact area. Frictional resistance results from the shear strength of only these contacting asperities. It is commonly presumed that changes in state are due primarily to changes in this real contact area under the low temperature plasticity regime assumed to operate around these highly stressed contact points. An alternative explanation is that changes in state are due to changes in some measure of the strength of the real contact area, for example due to changes in chemical bond strength or their area-averaged density. In this study, using data from 5% to ~100% normal stress step experiments, we show that the transient evolution of frictional strength with slip following medium-to-large normal stress steps cannot be understood in terms of changes in real contact area alone. Instead, changes in area-averaged contact strength play a more important role in this evolution. We formulate a framework of evolution equations for contact area, area-averaged contact strength and state that encodes contrasts in area-averaged strength between old and new regions of interfacial contact as a rate-state parameter and show that slip rate reductions of Westerly granite samples following these normal stress steps can be used to estimate this strength contrast consistently across all step sizes. For our experiments, the new contact area created rapidly by the abrupt increase in normal stress is found to be only 10-20% of the strength of the old contacts at the pre-step steady state and eventually evolves back to its pre-step steady-state strength value with slip. These experiments might lay the foundation for replacing our empirical descriptions of state evolution with an understanding of operative microprocesses that explicitly parametrizes the effect of changes in contact strength as well as contact area on frictional ‘state’ evolution.

How to cite: Bhattacharya, P., Tullis, T. E., Rubin, A. M., Beeler, N. M., and Badt, N. Z.: The gradual evolution of friction following a normal stress step reflects changes in contact strength, not contact area, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17731, 2026.

EGU26-18493 | ECS | Orals | SM4.3

Experimental studies on slow slip, fast failure, and episodic slip modulated by fluid pressure: implications for landslides and earthquakes 

Shaoyan Zhang, Wenping Gong, Yoshihiro Ito, Gonghui Wang, and Huiming Tang

Landslides and faults would slip in various slip patterns with an extensive velocity spectrum. The slow-moving landslides, catastrophic fast landslides, and intermittent-moving landslides share much similarity with some of the earthquake phenomena, such as the slow fault slip, fast earthquake, episodic slip. Moreover, both landslides and faults would be strongly controlled by their hydrogeology system and fluid pressure conditions. Herein, we conducted stress path- and fluid pressure-controlled triaxial shear experiments and ring-shear experiments on granular geomaterials. We reproduced diverse slip behaviors, including the slow slip, fast failure, episodic slip, under monotonic fluid overpressure and episodic fluid pressure within drained or undrained conditions. Our experiments suggest that the slip velocity might be controlled by stress drop and vice versa. The role of contraction/dilatation tendency, drained/undrained conditions, velocity-strengthening/weakening properties in determining slip pattern is systematically studied. And we adopted both active and passive seismic methods, such as seismic wave velocity and acoustic emission signal monitoring, to explore the failure precursors. Our studies could be valuable for understanding the slow to fast earthquake phenomena and providing an integrative view for multiple geohazards through linking landslides and earthquakes.

How to cite: Zhang, S., Gong, W., Ito, Y., Wang, G., and Tang, H.: Experimental studies on slow slip, fast failure, and episodic slip modulated by fluid pressure: implications for landslides and earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18493, 2026.

Very low frequency earthquakes (VLFEs) are generally absent from the standard seismicity catalogs because of their depleted seismic radiation at frequencies around and above 1Hz. With the aim of improving their detection, we have developed an approach where the continuous three-component records of a station pair are first template-matched with the corresponding surface-wave time windows of previously known regular earthquakes. As a time delay is allowed for one of the stations of the pair, detected events may be not collocated with their templates, and their epicenters can be determined as soon as a second pair is considered. In a second stage, based on their high-frequency radiation, we determine whether the detected events are standard earthquakes absent from the template catalog or VLFEs. This two-stage method, referred as VLFE_DRL (VLFE Detection and Relative Location), is applied to the southern Ryukyu subduction zone where VLFEs were already known to occur. Between 2004 and 2024, VLFE_DRL detects and locates there more than 160 VLFEs with moment magnitude (Mw) greater than 4, occurring in areas distinct from the standard interplate seismicity. Compared with existing VLFE catalogs of the area, VLFE_DRL detects more large magnitude events, and the VLFEs locations are more clustered in space.

How to cite: Vallée, M. and Delaporte, T.: Tracking Very Low Frequency Earthquakes into long continuous records : application to the Southern Ryukyu subduction zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20207, 2026.

EGU26-21784 | Posters on site | SM4.3

First direct geodetic evidence of precursory shallow slow-slip associated with seismic swarms on oceanic transform faults 

Xiaoge Liu, Passarelli Luigi, Barreto Alejandra, Benedikt Ófeigsson, Qiang Xu, and Sigurjón Jónsson*

Oceanic transform faults (OTFs) accommodate a significant portion of global plate motions, yet the physical mechanisms governing their characteristically low seismic coupling and the initiation of earthquake swarms remain poorly understood. Here, we provide the first direct geodetic evidence of shallow slow slip events (SSEs) on an OTF. By leveraging the increase of seismic activity during earthquake swarms as temporal constraints on high-resolution, land-based continuous GNSS data from near the just-offshore Húsavík-Flatey Fault (HFF) in North Iceland, we utilized a signal-stacking strategy to isolate ultra-slow transients from stochastic noise. This approach detected SSEs that are several weeks in duration and with an average moment magnitude of Mw 5.34, systematically preceding the seismic swarms. The marked spatial complementarity between SSEs and swarms, combined with their temporal synchronicity, seem to indicate that the aseismic transients act as a mechanical trigger for the swarm-like activity along the western portion of HFF. The pronounced contrast between the weakly coupled western segment of the HFF—characterized by concurrent SSEs and earthquake swarms—and the strongly coupled eastern segment, which lacks moderate to large earthquake clusters, reveals a fundamental along-strike heterogeneity in fault behavior. The evidence of systematic aseismic slip release along the HFF accompanying swarm activity indicates that the seismic moment deficit of OTFs can be reconciled by aseismic slip transients. Our results corroborate that OTFs are complex faults where rheological and geometrical segmentation result in a complex interplay of slow and fast slip release.

Acknowledgements: We gratefully acknowledge Baptiste Rousset and Estelle Neyrinck for generously sharing their geodetic matched filter code for this analysis.

How to cite: Liu, X., Luigi, P., Alejandra, B., Ófeigsson, B., Xu, Q., and Jónsson*, S.: First direct geodetic evidence of precursory shallow slow-slip associated with seismic swarms on oceanic transform faults, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21784, 2026.

EGU26-3364 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.4

Large Mendocino transform fault earthquakes’ foreshock and aftershock characteristics 

Min Liu, Hui Liu, and Yen Joe Tan

Compared to continental strike-slip faults, oceanic transform faults (OTFs) are thought to mainly slip aseismically and host significantly more foreshocks likely triggered by precursory aseismic slip which enhance the mainshocks' short-term predictability. However, long-term high-resolution observational constraints remain limited. In December 2024, one of the largest ever OTF earthquakes occurred offshore California on the Mendocino OTF. Here we show that compared to similar-magnitude continental strike-slip earthquakes, this moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 earthquake has an order of magnitude fewer aftershocks which suggests limited inter-event stress triggering. Nevertheless, the aftershock zone expanded with logarithmic time substantially beyond the mainshock's co-seismic rupture zone, hence likely reflects propagating aseismic slip transients. However, foreshock activity within the mainshock's rupture zone is limited and does not indicate any accelerating aseismic slip in the preceding 30 days. The 2016 Mw 6.6 and 1994 Mw 7.0 Mendocino OTF earthquakes share similar aftershock and foreshock characteristics. The 15 historical Mw>5.5 mainshocks also have few foreshocks on average. Our results demonstrate that low-seismic-coupling OTF segments can host aseismic slip transients triggered by earthquakes on neighboring segments while inhibiting these seismic ruptures’ propagation, and enhanced foreshock activity is not a general characteristic of OTFs despite prevalent aseismic slip.

How to cite: Liu, M., Liu, H., and Tan, Y. J.: Large Mendocino transform fault earthquakes’ foreshock and aftershock characteristics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3364, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3364, 2026.

EGU26-5817 | Posters on site | SM4.4

A Note on Empirical Scaling Laws for Tremor Swarms in Subduction Zones 

Charles Sammis and Michael Bostock

 

Tectonic tremor swarms are commonly observed at depths near the brittle-ductile transition at convergent plate boundaries. Composed of many temporally overlapping low frequency earthquakes (LFEs), these swarms extend over distances of 5 to 500 km and persist over times ranging from 1 to 1000 hours. The largest swarms have been correlated with slow slip earthquakes and we assume here that smaller swarms also serve as proxies for slow slip events. Swarms are characterized by their area A, their duration T, their scalar seismic moment 𝑀0 (and corresponding moment magnitude m), the number of their constituent LFEs 𝑁𝑒, and their along-strike propagation velocity 𝑣. These parameters have been linked in the literature by the following five scaling relations: 1) the scalar moment of a swarm is proportional to its duration, 𝑀0 ~ 𝑇,  2) the number of swarms 𝑁𝑠 follows the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) frequency-magnitude relation, 𝑁𝑠 = 10𝑎−𝑏𝑚 with b =1, 3) the number of swarms is a power law function of their duration, 𝑁𝑠 ~ 𝑇−2/3, 4) the number of swarms is a power law function of the number of events in a swarm, 𝑁𝑠 ~ 𝑁𝑒−2/3 , and 5) the along-strike velocity of a swarm scales with its duration 𝑣 ~ 𝑇−0.8. We demonstrate here that if scaling law (1) is correct then scaling law (3) is equivalent to the G-R distribution (2) with b = 1. If the moment is proportional the number of events in the swarm, 𝑀0 ~ 𝑁𝑒, then scaling law (4) is also equivalent to the G-R distribution (2) with b = 1. Further, if 𝑑̅ ~ 𝑀01/6, as observed for repeating earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault, then scaling law (5) can be written as 𝑑̅ ~ 𝐿 where 𝑑̅ is the average displacement and L is the along-strike fault length. The relation 𝑑̅ ~ 𝐿 implies that a slow earthquake behaves more like a crack than like a self-healing slip pulse often used to describe normal earthquakes, a result that is consistent with the observation of rapid tremor reversals. Finally, the emergent relation 𝑀0 ~ 𝑁𝑒 provides a possible explanation for scaling law (1) 𝑀0 ~ 𝑇, and a fractal distribution of swarm sizes with dimension D = 1.6 leads to the observed G-R relation with b = 1. This fractal dimension characterizes the early stages of fragmentation, consistent with the idea that tremor is the seismic signature of the breakup and underplating of subducting oceanic crust.

How to cite: Sammis, C. and Bostock, M.: A Note on Empirical Scaling Laws for Tremor Swarms in Subduction Zones, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5817, 2026.

EGU26-7390 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.4

From Foreshocks to Rupture: Transient Slip Controls on Nucleation 

Barnaby Fryer, Dmitry Garagash, Mathias Lebihain, and François Passelègue

Foreshocks are occasionally detected prior to earthquakes, but their influence on rupture nucleation is still poorly understood. Standard nucleation models generally attribute earthquake initiation to slow, quasi-static slip driven by fault weakening, and often disregard impulsive precursory slip events. In contrast, we demonstrate through laboratory experiments combined with a rate-and-state, Griffith-type rupture framework that foreshocks can exert a first-order control on earthquake initiation when they occur at, or during, the nucleation phase. Our results show that foreshock-induced slip bursts impose a transient sliding velocity, denoted Vmin​, whose amplitude depends on foreshock size and systematically governs both the duration and spatial extent of nucleation. Larger foreshocks produce higher Vmin​ values and promote a rapid progression toward dynamic rupture, whereas smaller foreshocks lead to prolonged quasi-static nucleation, and sufficiently weak perturbations result in complete rupture arrest. When extrapolated to tectonic fault conditions, the framework predicts that foreshock sequences and accompanying slow slip preceding natural earthquakes obey similar scaling relationships. These findings constrain characteristic nucleation slip distances to approximately 0.3–3 mm, substantially smaller than those typically inferred for dynamic rupture. Overall, our study indicates that transient slip induced by foreshocks controls the timing, evolution, and observability of earthquake nucleation.

How to cite: Fryer, B., Garagash, D., Lebihain, M., and Passelègue, F.: From Foreshocks to Rupture: Transient Slip Controls on Nucleation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7390, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7390, 2026.

EGU26-9848 | Posters on site | SM4.4

Tidal sensitivity of shallow tectonic tremors in northeastern Japan 

Yishuo Zhou, Hideo Aochi, Alexandre Schubnel, Satoshi Ide, Harsha Bhat, Weifan Lu, Seiya Yano, and Ankit Gupta

Shallow tectonic tremors along the northeastern Japan subduction zone show regional differences in their spatiotemporal evolution, raising the question of whether their response to tidal stressing also varies along strike. We analyze the tremor catalogue obtained by Sagae et al. (JGR, 2025, e2025JB031348)  for the period from August 2016 to August 2024. Based on their spatial distribution, tremor activity can be divided into three major regions: the southern end of the Kuril Trench (40.8–42°N; northern region), the northern Japan Trench (38.8–40.5°N; central region), and the southern Japan Trench (35–36.8°N; southern region). Here, we investigate the tidal sensitivity of tectonic tremors in these three regions. Our statistical analysis shows that tidal sensitivity is highest in the northern area, where tremors are clustered and occur in recurrent along-strike propagating bursts. Cluster-scale analyses in this northern region indicate that tidal sensitivity increases during the later stages of tremor clusters, consistent with the characteristics reported for deep tectonic tremors. Tidal sensitivity is intermediate in the southern area, where tremors appear more scattered. In the central region, where tremor activity has declined gradually since 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, tidal sensitivity is lowest. In this region however, tremors and fast earthquakes occur in close spatial proximity. There, we further examine the relationship between tremor activity, fast earthquakes and tidal stress to explore potential interactions between slow and fast earthquakes.

How to cite: Zhou, Y., Aochi, H., Schubnel, A., Ide, S., Bhat, H., Lu, W., Yano, S., and Gupta, A.: Tidal sensitivity of shallow tectonic tremors in northeastern Japan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9848, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9848, 2026.

EGU26-11136 | Posters on site | SM4.4

Fault volume digital twin to reproduce the full slip spectrum, scaling and statistical laws 

Navid Kheirdast, Michelle Almakari, Carlos Villafuerte, Marion Y. Thomas, Jinhui Cheng, Ankit Gupta, and Harsha S. Bhat
Seismological and geodetic observations of fault zones reveal diverse slip dynamics, scaling, and statistical laws. Existing mechanisms explain some but not all of these behaviors. We show that incorporating an off-fault damage zone—characterized by distributed fractures surrounding a main fault—can reproduce many key features observed in seismic and geodetic data. We model a 2D shear fault zone in which off-fault cracks follow power-law size and density distributions, and are oriented either optimally or parallel to the main fault. All fractures follow rate-and-state friction with parameters enabling slip instabilities. We do not introduce spatial heterogeneities in frictional properties. Using quasi-dynamic boundary integral simulations accelerated by hierarchical matrices, we simulate slip dynamics and analyze events produced both on and off the main fault. Despite spatially uniform frictional properties, we observe a natural continuum from slow to fast ruptures, as seen in nature. Our simulations reproduce the Omori law, inverse Omori law, Gutenberg-Richter scaling, and moment-duration scaling. We observe seismicity localizing toward the main fault before nucleation of main-fault events. During slow slip events, off-fault seismicity migrates in patterns resembling fluid diffusion fronts, despite the absence of fluids. We show that tremors, Very Low Frequency Earthquakes (VLFEs), Low Frequency Earthquakes (LFEs), Slow Slip Events (SSEs), and earthquakes can all emerge naturally within this fault volume framework, making it an ideal digital twin for testing hypotheses, performing ground-truth inversions, and probing mechanical properties inaccessible with natural observations.

How to cite: Kheirdast, N., Almakari, M., Villafuerte, C., Thomas, M. Y., Cheng, J., Gupta, A., and Bhat, H. S.: Fault volume digital twin to reproduce the full slip spectrum, scaling and statistical laws, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11136, 2026.

EGU26-11501 | Posters on site | SM4.4

How predictable are laboratory earthquakes? Insights from dense fault instrumentation and graph neural networks 

Francois Passelegue, Federica Paglialunga, Quentin Bletery, Barnaby Fryer, and Feyza Arzu

Earthquake prediction remains one of the most challenging problems in Earth science. Recent advances in physics-based fault modelling, high-resolution laboratory observations, and deep-learning frameworks have opened new opportunities to assess how predictable seismic processes may be in controlled environments.

Here, we present the analysis of more than 1,000 laboratory earthquakes produced in a biaxial apparatus hosting a 400 × 100 mm PMMA fault interface, allowing two-dimensional rupture propagation analogous to natural faults. The experimental setup is instrumented with 38 strain gauges distributed within the fault interface, 20 accelerometers located along both fault surfaces, and 14 acoustic emission (AE) sensors positioned at varying distances from the fault. The experiments were conducted under constant loading rate and normal stresses ranging from 50 to 250 bar. This dense instrumentation enables us to reconstruct, for each laboratory earthquake, the nucleation location, initiation time, rupture evolution, and final event magnitude. The resulting catalog spans nearly three orders of magnitude in seismic moment (from Mw=-6.5 for small ruptures to  Mw=-3.8 for the largest events).

Building on this comprehensive dataset, we explore the potential of Graph Neural Networks to predict the spatial and temporal occurrence of laboratory seismicity. The models are trained on a subset of experiments and tested on independent experiments not included in the training phase. We focus in particular on identifying the minimal set of observational features required for successful prediction, and on assessing the level of physical complexity that machine-learning algorithms trained on homogeneous laboratory faults can capture.

How to cite: Passelegue, F., Paglialunga, F., Bletery, Q., Fryer, B., and Arzu, F.: How predictable are laboratory earthquakes? Insights from dense fault instrumentation and graph neural networks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11501, 2026.

EGU26-12296 * | Posters on site | SM4.4 | Highlight

Experimental tectonic tremors triggered at subduction zone conditions  

Alexandre Schubnel, Petr Zverev, Seiya Yano, Julien Gasc, Timm John, Jorn Kummerow, Loïc Labrousse, and Satoshi Ide

The origin of tectonic tremors, low-amplitude and long-duration seismic signals, observed at depth greater than 20-30km at some of the world’s tectonic plate boundaries, remains enigmatic. Here, olivine + antigorite mineral assemblages, containing up to 75 vol.% of the hydrous bearing phase, thought as analogues for dry and water-rich subducting lithologies, were experimentally compressed along pressure-temperature (P-T) paths typical of hot subduction zones. During all experiments, ultrasonic acoustic monitoring of the compression was performed. At PT conditions below 1GPa and 500°C, earthquake-like signals were recorded, with a peak activity at 0.5GPa and 250°, ie. conditions coresponding to the base of the megathrust . Above these PT conditions, spectral analysis (corner frequency, stress drop, duration vs. moment) revealed that the recorded acoustic emissions (AE) signals shared striking similarities with natural tectonic tremors. In particular, stress drops of few kPa and linear moment release vs. duration scalings were observed. While nominally dry experiments confirmed that these tremor-like AEs originated from the viscous deformation of the dry matrix, hydrous mineral bearing experiments demonstrated that experimental tremors could be triggered in bursts at the onset of dehydration reactions, probaly via a mechanism compatible with dehydration stress transfer.

 

How to cite: Schubnel, A., Zverev, P., Yano, S., Gasc, J., John, T., Kummerow, J., Labrousse, L., and Ide, S.: Experimental tectonic tremors triggered at subduction zone conditions , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12296, 2026.

EGU26-18113 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.4

Automatic detection of atypical seismic events through machine learning models trained on modulation spectrum representations of OBS datasets 

Alexander Gillert, Jerome Lebrun, Audrey Galve, Yvonne Font, and Mireille Laigle

The Ecuadorian subduction zone is one of the few subduction zones where aseismic slip occurs in the shallow segment of the megathrust fault. This aseismic slip appears to be characterized by seismic swarms. So far, no non-volcanic tremor has been detected using classical methods. This may be partially attributed to the fact that the previous deployments were mainly on land and only sparsely offshore, away from the expected locus of potential tremors.

During the HIPER marine campaign (2022, 15/03-12/04), we deployed around 40 OBS on a 3D grid to  image the structure of the Ecuadorian subduction zone in the region of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales earthquake. 

An automatic machine-learning CNN model was developed, relying on modulation spectrum representations of the seismic signals acquired from the OBS network. This approach is rooted in the detection of typical/atypical patterns in animal vocalizations or human speech, as it has been demonstrated to be highly effective in profiling and detecting the "natural" variations from noise - how the modulation patterns (the “timbre” and “prosody”) evolve around the carrier frequency (the “pitch"). 

Thus, the representation dataset in our approach consists of streams of time-varying images 2D+t (carrier vs modulation frequencies) computed for each unidimensional directional seismic time series. This approach was tested and proved to be both discriminatory and efficient in validating the detection of tremors obtained on OBS seismic signals extracted from the SEIS-PNSN tremors dataset from the Cascadia subduction zone.

For the first time, we have recorded seismic activity on a dense offshore network over a one-month-long period, which will reveal whether tremors occurred in the region of the Pedernales earthquake, a region which is prone to aseismic and seismic slip.

How to cite: Gillert, A., Lebrun, J., Galve, A., Font, Y., and Laigle, M.: Automatic detection of atypical seismic events through machine learning models trained on modulation spectrum representations of OBS datasets, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18113, 2026.

EGU26-18211 | Posters on site | SM4.4

Repeated Burst Repeating Earthquakes in North Chile.        From long waiting times for short bursts. 

Jonas Folesky, Jörn Kummerow, and Kate Chen

Repeating earthquakes are pairs or families of events that rupture an identical patch of a fault repeatedly, having recurrence times from days to several years. 
They are to be distinguished from quasi-repeaters whose source areas are non or only partly overlapping. 
We report on a particular quasi-repeater phenomenon:  repeated burst repeaters, which we call raspberry repeaters. In contrast to regular repeater series, each rupture phase consists of multiple events (the burst) rather than just one event. 
In a burst phase, multiple events occur in a cascade over a short time period followed by a notably longer waiting time. In our case the waiting time between bursts range from weeks to years, while the activity during a burst is usually smaller than six hours. We identified over 20 of such raspberry repeater series in northern Chile. 
For multiple series we relocate the events and analyze their source properties as well as their inter-event interactions in detail. We find that they neither obey a classical mainshock-aftershock pattern, nor the diffuse pattern of earthquake swarms. Interestingly, several groups show remarkably consistent repeating pattern, i.e., their sub-cluster rupture order remains similar. 
The identification and description of raspberry repeater series can improve our understanding of subduction related failure and earthquake generation mechanisms, of stress transfer and triggering processes between earthquakes. 

How to cite: Folesky, J., Kummerow, J., and Chen, K.: Repeated Burst Repeating Earthquakes in North Chile.        From long waiting times for short bursts., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18211, 2026.

EGU26-18482 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.4

Depth-Dependent Recurrence and Slip-Rate Behavior of Repeating Earthquakes in Northern Chile 

Andrei Julian Carpio, Kate Huihsuan Chen, Wei Peng, and Jonas Folesky

Repeating earthquakes provide constraints on fault slip and loading processes along subduction zones. We analyze a comprehensive repeating earthquake catalog from northern Chile spanning more than two decades (Folesky et al., 2025), consisting of 3153 repeating earthquake sequences with magnitudes ranging from −0.3 to 4.7. These sequences cluster at two depth intervals: a shallow group (<70 km) and an intermediate-depth group (70–210 km), spanning from the plate interface to within the subducting slab.

We compare the recurrence behavior and slip-rate response of shallow and intermediate-depth repeating earthquakes. Shallow repeaters show strong sensitivity to large megathrust earthquakes. Following the 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake, inferred slip rates accelerated to peak values of up to 51.96 cm/yr, then decayed over approximately five years to a quasi-steady level of 3.3449 cm/yr, and eventually returned toward a background rate of 0.549 cm/yr. In contrast, intermediate-depth repeating earthquakes exhibit little systematic response to large megathrust events.

Despite these contrasting responses, both shallow and intermediate-depth repeaters record comparable background slip rates of ~0.5–1.0 cm/yr. Along-strike and space–time analyses further indicate that north–south variability at intermediate depth is expressed primarily in recurrence patterns rather than in slip-rate amplitude. These results demonstrate pronounced depth-dependent differences in repeating earthquake behavior and provide new observational constraints on fault slip processes from the shallow megathrust to intermediate depths.

How to cite: Carpio, A. J., Chen, K. H., Peng, W., and Folesky, J.: Depth-Dependent Recurrence and Slip-Rate Behavior of Repeating Earthquakes in Northern Chile, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18482, 2026.

EGU26-19567 | ECS | Posters on site | SM4.4

Tremor-informed kinematic slip modeling of the 2009-2010 slow-slip event doublet in the Mexican subduction zone 

Zaccaria El Yousfi, Mathilde Radiguet, Baptiste Rousset, and Dimitri Zigone

Slow-slip events (SSEs) release an important part of the accumulated strain at plate boundaries and can interact with large earthquakes. It is thus crucial to analyse in detail their temporal dynamics. While GNSS observations robustly capture the cumulative, static displacements associated with SSEs, their noise level limits the temporal resolution of transient, short-timescale potential variations in slip rate. In contrast, co-occurring tectonic tremor, sampled at much finer temporal resolution, reveals pronounced short-term intermittency within SSEs. Despite this, tremor-derived temporal variability has not yet been incorporated into kinematic SSE models, leaving the short-timescale dynamics largely unresolved.

 

In the Mexican subduction zone, large SSEs persist for several months,recur every few years, and GNSS-based kinematic models resolve only first-order spatiotemporal evolution at these long timescales. Here we investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of the 2009–2010 SSE sequence in Guerrero, Mexico. This sequence is of particular interest because it consists of two distinct sub-events, with the onset of the second coinciding with the occurrence of the distant Maule earthquake. A detailed kinematic analysis of this SSE, combining geodetic observations and tremor activity, therefore provides a unique opportunity to assess the potential role of dynamic stress perturbations during large SSEs.

We construct a tremor catalog covering the SSE sequence, using the temporary mini-array seismic network GGAP and a beamforming method at the tremor frequency band.

In parallel, we use GNSS time series from the local network, to jointly analyze the SSE crustal displacement signal with the resulting tremor catalog to observe the finer dynamics of the SSE sequence.

 

We develop two kinematic slip modeling schemes based on a least-squares formulation with regularization. In the first scheme, GNSS positions on fixed time windows are inverted sequentially as independent time steps. In the second scheme, the full GNSS time series are inverted simultaneously, which improves the recovery of displacement amplitudes and allows the incorporation of tremor-derived temporal constraints. Tremor burst timings are defined based on events clustering properties, and introduced as prior information in the kinematic inversion, allowing larger slip rates during tremor dense periods.

 

Our results show that the studied 2009-2010 SSE sequence includes 7 major tremor bursts that are accompanied by a slip acceleration. In 2009, two major episodes of tremor and slow-slip occurred in the westernmost part of Guerrero. Immediately following the 2010 Maule earthquake, a persistent and energetic tremor and slip episode was triggered, extending the slipping region eastward along strike, where multiple additional tremor and slip episodes were subsequently observed.

 

Although aseismic slip releases the largest moment, the accompanying tremor provides a high-resolution temporal proxy for fault slip. This enables improved temporal resolution in kinematic SSE models, and allows the identification of short-term slip accelerations that coincide with tremor timings. The complex 2009–2010 Guerrero slow-slip and tremor sequence analyzed here highlights the sensitivity of SSE slip rates and migration to far-field dynamic stress perturbations.

 

How to cite: El Yousfi, Z., Radiguet, M., Rousset, B., and Zigone, D.: Tremor-informed kinematic slip modeling of the 2009-2010 slow-slip event doublet in the Mexican subduction zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19567, 2026.

SM5 – Real-time and Time-dependent Seismology

EGU26-4217 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.1

Extending Long-Period Ambient Noise Surface-Wave Imaging in Small-Aperture Dense Arrays With Beamforming-Assisted Eikonal Tomography 

Chun-Fu Liao, Ying-Nien Chen, Yuancheng Gung, and Shu-Huei Hung

Extracting reliable long-period surface waves from ambient noise cross correlation functions (CCFs) remains challenging for small-aperture dense arrays, where the interstation distances are commonly shorter than the target wavelengths. This geometric limitation leads to unstable phase-delay estimates and labor-intensive, manual dispersion analysis. Here we present a beamforming-enabled Eikonal tomography framework that integrates array beamforming with interferometric surface-wave fields to stabilize and automate phase-velocity estimation at both short and long periods. Beamforming is first applied to the CCF wavefield at each period to estimate its dominant propagation direction and associated slowness, and the individual CCFs are subsequently aligned using the estimated slowness. Relative arrival-time fields derived from these aligned CCFs are then used as input for Eikonal tomography to recover spatially continuous phase-velocity maps across the array. This approach effectively extends the measurable period range beyond the conventional aperture-limited regime while preserving computational efficiency and minimizing subjective dispersion picking. Application to a ~96-station dense seismic network in Taiwan demonstrates the retrieval of coherent long-period phase-delay wavefields and substantially improved phase-velocity maps that more clearly delineate crustal and seismogenic structures compared with conventional ambient noise tomography. Our results indicate coupling beamforming with automated Eikonal tomography provides a transferable and robust pathway for long-period imaging using existing dense arrays, yielding better constraints on deep crustal structures that are essential for tectonic interpretation and regional seismic hazard assessment in complex geological settings.

How to cite: Liao, C.-F., Chen, Y.-N., Gung, Y., and Hung, S.-H.: Extending Long-Period Ambient Noise Surface-Wave Imaging in Small-Aperture Dense Arrays With Beamforming-Assisted Eikonal Tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4217, 2026.

EGU26-4798 | ECS | Orals | SM5.1

Source Variability as a Limiting Factor in Seismic Velocity Monitoring 

Yixiao Sheng and Kaixin Cai

Industrial facilities can act as persistent, high-energy seismic noise sources and are increasingly exploited for passive time-lapse monitoring. In geothermal settings, vibrations generated by power plants provide spatially stable sources that are well suited for long-term interferometric analyses. However, temporal variations in operational conditions may lead to changes in source spectral content, potentially biasing time-lapse measurements derived from ambient noise cross-correlation. Assessing and mitigating the effects of such source nonstationarity is therefore essential for reliable monitoring.

We investigate continuous seismic noise recorded in 2008 at the Salton Sea geothermal field (southern California) and apply a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to characterize temporal variability in source spectra. The VAE is trained on frequency spectra from relatively stable periods and subsequently used to identify time intervals exhibiting anomalous time–frequency behavior, interpreted as changes in the industrial noise source. We then compute noise cross-correlation functions and corresponding travel-time variations (dt) for both normal and anomalous periods.

Our analysis reveals systematic differences in dt behavior associated with source spectral changes, including abrupt offsets at transitions between normal and anomalous intervals and increased high-frequency fluctuations during anomalous periods. These effects occur despite stable source locations, demonstrating that spectral variability alone can significantly contaminate time-lapse measurements.

To reduce these biases, we construct separate correlation reference functions for distinct source regimes. This adaptive strategy suppresses spurious dt fluctuations during anomalous intervals and yields more physically interpretable travel-time variations. The results highlight the importance of explicit source characterization in passive seismic monitoring and demonstrate how machine learning–based approaches can enhance the robustness of time-lapse interferometry in geothermal fields and other environments dominated by industrial noise sources.

How to cite: Sheng, Y. and Cai, K.: Source Variability as a Limiting Factor in Seismic Velocity Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4798, 2026.

Fiber-optic telecommunication cables are commonly installed along major transport corridors such as highways and railways. Traffic along these infrastructures continuously excites the shallow subsurface, generating surface waves whose dispersive behavior can be analyzed to investigate near-surface structures. Applying Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) to dark fiber deployed along such corridors makes it possible to record these signals with dense spatial sampling over large distances, thereby offering new opportunities for passive imaging and/or monitoring of the shallow subsurface.

In this study, we investigate the potential of DAS recordings acquired on dark fiber to perform Multi-Channel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) using traffic-induced seismic sources. Our analysis is based on two independent datasets: one collected along a main road crossing the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) campus, and another acquired along a railway line. We introduce a comprehensive processing framework including (i) automated vehicle detection and tracking along the fiber, independent of prior knowledge of vehicle trajectories or source locations; (ii) surface-wave analysis based on cross-correlation to retrieve virtual shot gathers (VSGs); and (iii) a stacking strategy designed to enhance coherent surface-wave energy while suppressing noise, improving the resolution of dispersion spectra and enabling robust dispersion-curve estimation even in challenging, high-noise environments. The stacking strategy enables the analysis of temporal variations in the retrieved dispersion characteristics, beside resolving spatial variations along the cable.

How to cite: Proenca, T. and Azzola, J.: Using vehicle-induced DAS signals on dark fiber for MASW and monitoring of spatio-temporal variations of near-surface ground properties, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5539, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5539, 2026.

EGU26-6427 | Orals | SM5.1

Body wave reconstruction from the cross-correlation of high frequency seismic noise in the Alto Tiberina Fault zone, Italy 

Lucia Zaccarelli, Florent Brenguier, Eugenio Mandler, and Enrico Serpelloni

We deployed two dense nodal arrays in the area comprising the Alto Tiberina Fault (ATF) system, Northern Apennines of Italy. This area is characterized by high geodetic strain-rates, with ~3 mm/yr of SW-NE extension partially accommodated by aseismic creep on the low angle ATF and partially by seismic swarm occurrences on the synthetic and antithetic faults in the hanging wall. High angle hanging wall faults play a role in seismogenic ruptures and during the occurrence of seismic swarms. The two almost linear arrays were roughly pointing towards a cement factory whose mills (while operating) could produce a seismic noise in the range [3 10] Hz. Thanks to this continuous (at intervals) source we could reconstruct the Green function of the medium from cross-correlations, and thus identify the arrival of the body waves, firstly in the nodal, but successively also in the permanent station recordings.

Measuring temporal changes of seismic velocities on body-waves reconstructed from noise cross-correlations between stations separated by tens of km should allow us to gain new insights into the evolution of the ATF and its surrounding faults at seismogenic depths, and to improve our understanding of the earthquakes preparatory phase.

How to cite: Zaccarelli, L., Brenguier, F., Mandler, E., and Serpelloni, E.: Body wave reconstruction from the cross-correlation of high frequency seismic noise in the Alto Tiberina Fault zone, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6427, 2026.

Shallow subsurface velocity variations provide key constraints for understanding the migration of soil water and associate hydrological processes. In this study, we use a distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) unit to record high-frequency ambient noise and apply ballistic wave seismic monitoring (Mi et al., 2025) to retrieve velocity variations within the upper 10 m of the shallow subsurface in Hefei, Anhui Province, China, over a two-month period. During non-precipitation periods, low-frequency (< 22 Hz) phase velocities exhibit a negative correlation with temperature, whereas high-frequency (>22 Hz) phase velocities show a positive correlation. Following precipitation events, phase velocities decrease significantly across all frequencies. Based on a reference 1-D shear-wave velocity model, we further invert the time-dependent phase velocity perturbations to obtain depth-dependent shear-wave velocity variations (Haney and Tsai, 2017). Integration with borehole observations reveals contrasting responses between shallow (<5 m) and deeper (>5 m) layers to evaporation, infiltration, and loading: diurnal temperature variations regulate soil moisture and thereby control velocity changes during dry periods, while rainfall-induced infiltration becomes the dominant factor during precipitation. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of DAS-based time-lapse velocity monitoring for characterizing shallow soil water cycling and highlight its potential for high spatiotemporal resolution hydro-geophysical monitoring of the near surface.

Raeferences

Haney, M.M. & Tsai, V.C., 2017. Perturbational and nonperturbational inversion of Rayleigh-wave velocities, Geophysics, 82, F15–F28.

Mi, B., Xia, J. & Li, J., 2025. On the measurement of relative phase velocity changes for ballistic wave seismic monitoring, Geophysical Journal International, 234, 1-9.

How to cite: Guan, B., Yao, H., and Sheng, Y.: Shallow subsurface velocity changes and hydrological responses revealed by distributed acoustic sensing, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7049, 2026.

EGU26-7199 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.1

Challenges in fault detection using ambient noise in urban environments: Distinguishing structural scattering from source-induced artifacts through moveout and back-scattering analysis 

Yongki Andita Aiman, Richard Kramer, Clément Estève, Yang Lu, and Götz Bokelmann

Accurately mapping buried fault structures is essential for assessing seismic hazards and characterizing subsurface complexity. Many small or concealed faults lack surface expression or recorded seismicity, creating hidden risks that are difficult to identify with traditional methods. Consequently, there is a vital need for reliable detection tools in diverse environments, ranging from geothermal fields to urban centers. The analysis of back-scattered surface waves from ambient seismic noise has emerged as a promising method to fill this gap. However, while synthetic models often exhibit distinct V-shaped patterns in virtual source gathers, applying these techniques to complex geological settings like the Southern Vienna Basin presents significant practical challenges.

We conducted an comprehensive, gather-by-gather analysis of virtual shot gathers from a dense linear nodal array. By manually inspecting binned plots across multiple frequency bands, we identified distinct wavefield anomalies at suspected fault locations. Preliminary results reveal two distinct wavefield anomalies: a transition from normal moveout to nearly flat moveout in the 0.5–1 Hz range, and a transition of energy from the causal to the acausal time lag in the 2–3 Hz range at suspected fault locations.

While these "kinks" and moveout of surface waves appear to correlate with known geological faults, their proximity to urban infrastructure introduces significant interpretive ambiguity. At this preliminary stage, it remains unclear whether these features represent true structural back-scattering or are artifacts induced by localized anthropogenic noise sources acting as stationary phase points. This study highlights the inherent difficulties in urban seismic imaging and underscores the necessity of distinguishing between structural scattering and source-induced artifacts to reliably identify hidden fault risks.

How to cite: Aiman, Y. A., Kramer, R., Estève, C., Lu, Y., and Bokelmann, G.: Challenges in fault detection using ambient noise in urban environments: Distinguishing structural scattering from source-induced artifacts through moveout and back-scattering analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7199, 2026.

EGU26-7968 | ECS | Orals | SM5.1

Tracking Near-Surface Attenuation Changes Using Repetitive Anthropogenic Seismic Sources 

Laura Pinzon-Rincon, Destin Nziengui Bâ, Aurélien Mordret, Verónica Rodríguez Tribaldos, Olivier Coutant, and Florent Brenguier

Monitoring groundwater and near-surface processes at high temporal resolution remains challenging, particularly in urban environments. Recent advances in passive seismology have demonstrated the potential of anthropogenic seismic sources to act as stable and repeatable signals for monitoring temporal variations in seismic velocity. In this study, we extend these approaches by proposing a method to monitor near-surface seismic attenuation variations, an observable that is highly sensitive to water content and therefore particularly relevant for investigating groundwater dynamics.

We exploit train-generated seismic waves as repetitive anthropogenic sources to track temporal changes in near-surface attenuation. Using a single-station approach, we analyze variations in the frequency content and amplitudes of seismic signals generated by passing trains to infer relative changes in seismic attenuation. These variations are interpreted as proxies for changes in near-surface hydrological conditions, including water saturation and groundwater level fluctuations.

The methodology is applied to a managed water catchment in Lyon (France), where artificial recharge operations and natural hydrological events provide independent constraints on subsurface water storage. We compare the inferred attenuation variations with complementary hydrological and geophysical observations, including rainfall records, infiltration basin water levels, piezometric measurements, and seismic velocity changes derived from autocorrelation of train signals. The results reveal consistent temporal relationships between attenuation variations and groundwater system responses, highlighting the sensitivity of attenuation-based observables to hydrological processes.

Our findings demonstrate that repetitive anthropogenic seismic sources can be used as opportunistic source for monitoring seismic attenuation variations. This passive approach offers new perspectives for continuous monitoring of groundwater dynamics in urban environments. More generally, the methodology can be extended to other sites where stable anthropogenic seismic sources are available, opening new opportunities for investigating near-surface processes using attenuation-based seismic observables.

How to cite: Pinzon-Rincon, L., Nziengui Bâ, D., Mordret, A., Rodríguez Tribaldos, V., Coutant, O., and Brenguier, F.: Tracking Near-Surface Attenuation Changes Using Repetitive Anthropogenic Seismic Sources, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7968, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7968, 2026.

Primary microseisms are long-period seismic waves generated by the interaction of ocean surface gravity waves with the seafloor. Yet, the spatial distribution and excitation mechanisms of their sources remain poorly resolved. Here, we investigate the heterogeneous generation of primary microseisms associated with seasonal tropical cyclone activity and Cyclone Ita in North-east Australia (2014). Combining continuous seismic data from a regional network with high-resolution (30 m) bathymetric maps, we show that primary microseism excitation is highly localised in both time and space, and critically dependent on fine-scale seafloor roughness. Our analysis reveals that the most energetic Rayleigh wave bursts arise from regions with pronounced bathymetric variability, where coupling between ocean waves and the solid Earth is most efficient. The finding provides observational evidence to confirm the theoretical conjecture that topographic undulations at scales comparable to ocean wave wavelengths govern the strength of microseism sources in the 10 – 20 s period band. Our findings highlight the critical role of nearshore bathymetric roughness in shaping the spatial coherence of primary microseism excitation. The understandings are essential for guiding the future use of persistent seismic sources in seismic imaging of Earth’s near-surface structures and in monitoring the evolution of the seismic wavefield in near-future applications.

 

How to cite: Pandey, A., Pham, T.-S., and Tkalčić, H.: Seafloor Topography Controls Primary Microseism Generation: New Insights from Cyclone-Forced Seismic Observations in Northeastern Australia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8474, 2026.

EGU26-9258 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.1

Noise based tomography around the Asal Rift, Djibouti 

Iskandar Hassan, Dimitri Zigone, Cécile Doubre, Mohamed Jalludin, and Sylvie Leroy

Passive seismic methods have become increasingly important for investigating crustal structures in tectonically active regions. The Asal Rift, located in central Djibouti, is characterized by pronounced lithospheric thinning resulting from extensional processes accommodated by major normal faults and a high geothermal flux associated with mantle upwelling beneath the region.

In this study, we evaluate the contribution of passive seismology to the assessment of the geothermal potential of the Asal Rift. The dataset comes from a network of 31 short-period and broadband seismic stations deployed between 2009 and 2011 as part of the Dynamics of Rifting in Asal (DORA) Project. We performed ambient seismic noise cross-correlations, applied Frequency–Time Analysis to extract Rayleigh-wave dispersion curves within the 1–5 s period band and constructed group velocity maps of the region. From those group velocity maps we constructed a 3D shear-wave velocity model around the rift.  

The results reveal a significant decrease in seismic velocities within the rift zone, where several geothermal development projects are ongoing. These findings are interpreted as thermal anomalies that provide valuable insights for guiding future geothermal exploration and improving the understanding of crustal dynamics in the Asal Rift. Updated results will be presented at the meeting.

How to cite: Hassan, I., Zigone, D., Doubre, C., Jalludin, M., and Leroy, S.: Noise based tomography around the Asal Rift, Djibouti, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9258, 2026.

EGU26-9882 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.1

Crustal Structure Beneath Botswana from Ambient Seismic Noise Tomography 

Onkgopotse Ntibinyane, Ehsan Qorbani Chegeni, Clément Estève, Richard Kramer, and Götz Bokelmann

Botswana is situated in central Southern Africa and is characterized by diverse geology, including prominent cratons such as the Congo and Kalahari cratons, as well as two sedimentary basins. Previous studies of the crustal structure beneath Botswana have primarily relied on traditional regional and teleseismic earthquake tomography. In this study, we use ambient seismic noise tomography to image the crustal structure of Botswana and its surrounding region. Using two years of seismic data (2019–2020) from 40 broadband stations including stations from the Botswana Seismological Network (BSN) and neighbouring regions, cross-correlation functions (CCFs) are computed and used to reconstruct surface waves propagating between station pairs. Dispersions of the surface waves are extracted and used in a 2-D inversion to produce Rayleigh-wave group velocity maps of the region. Here, we present results including 2-D group-velocity maps across multiple periods and 1-D inversion results in the form of shear-velocity depth profiles derived from the dispersion measurements. We discuss these results and their implications for imaging crustal structure in this region and for developing detailed 3-D velocity models of Botswana's crust, providing new insights into the region's subsurface structure and geodynamics.

How to cite: Ntibinyane, O., Qorbani Chegeni, E., Estève, C., Kramer, R., and Bokelmann, G.: Crustal Structure Beneath Botswana from Ambient Seismic Noise Tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9882, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9882, 2026.

EGU26-10297 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.1

Coherent Source Subsampling for Ambient Noise Correlation Analysis: A Himalayan Case Study 

Pushkar Bharadwaj, Sanket Bajad, and Pawan Bharadwaj

Ambient noise interferometry enables the retrieval of inter-station surface wave responses through cross-correlation and linear averaging of continuous seismic response, under the assumption that the seismic wavefield is equipartitioned, with energy uniformly distributed over all propagation directions. In practice, however, ambient noise sources are highly non-uniform in both space and time, leading to biased estimates of the inter-station response between station pairs. If sources located within the stationary-phase zone can be identified and only the corresponding cross-correlation windows are selected for averaging, the inter-station response can be more accurately approximated, resulting in improved causal–acausal symmetry. Deep learning-based coherent source subsampling has been shown to effectively identify stationary-phase noise sources, thereby enhancing the recovery of physically meaningful inter-station surface wave responses.

In the Himalayan region, linear averaging of ambient-noise cross-correlations often does not yield causal–acausal symmetry and fails to recover inter-station surface wave response. In this study, we use data driven coherent source subsampling approach to systematically identify ambient-noise cross-correlations associated with stationary-zone sources prior to averaging. In this study, data from 19 stations deployed along a linear profile in the Kumaon–Garhwal Himalaya, spanning the periods 2005–2008 and 2011–2012, are analyzed. The continuous seismograms during the mentioned period were divided into 30-minute windows, and inter-station cross-correlations were computed for 167 station pairs. Using a symmetric variational autoencoder with discrete latent variables, we subsampled cross-correlation windows into distinct source states and select those corresponding to the stationary-phase zone, characterized by pronounced causal-acausal symmetry and maximum time lag. Averaging cross-correlations associated with the stationary-phase source state enhances the inter-station surface-wave dispersions, with causal and acausal branches yielding similar dispersions. These results show that coherent source subsampling provides an effective framework for improving ambient-noise interferometry in complex Himalayan geological settings.

How to cite: Bharadwaj, P., Bajad, S., and Bharadwaj, P.: Coherent Source Subsampling for Ambient Noise Correlation Analysis: A Himalayan Case Study, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10297, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10297, 2026.

EGU26-11685 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.1

Seismic interferometry under dominant anthropogenic noise 

Pilar Sánchez Sánchez-Pastor, Martin Schimmel, Samuel Jorde, Helena Seivane, Jordi Díaz, Abraham Balaguera, and Montserrat Torné

Seismic monitoring in active mining environments is strongly conditioned by the presence of intense and highly variable anthropogenic noise sources, which are often considered a limitation for conventional ambient-noise–based approaches. However, these sources also represent a persistent and information-rich wavefield that can be exploited if properly characterized and handled.

In this contribution, we focus on mining settings where seismic noise is dominated by anthropogenic activity (e.g., machinery, blasting-related processes, and operational cycles) and present a methodology specifically designed to turn these coherent but non-stationary sources into a useful signal for subsurface monitoring. The approach is based on seismic noise interferometry, combined with tailored preprocessing and source-selection strategies that enhance the stability and interpretability of the retrieved waveforms under strongly time-varying noise conditions.

We show how this method allows us to extract robust information on subsurface dynamics in mining-related contexts, with particular emphasis on applications such as tailings dam monitoring and near-surface mechanical stability. The results demonstrate that, rather than being an obstacle, anthropogenic noise can be systematically leveraged to improve seismic monitoring in active resource-extraction environments, opening new perspectives for environmental risk assessment and sustainable mining practices.

How to cite: Sánchez Sánchez-Pastor, P., Schimmel, M., Jorde, S., Seivane, H., Díaz, J., Balaguera, A., and Torné, M.: Seismic interferometry under dominant anthropogenic noise, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11685, 2026.

EGU26-13022 | ECS | Orals | SM5.1

Ambient Seismic Noise: From Characterization to Simulation 

Abdullah A. Abdulghany, Antonio Fuggi, Alessandro Brovelli, Giorgio Cassiani, and Ilaria Barone

Ambient seismic noise, traditionally viewed as undesired signal in seismic records, has increasingly gained importance as a source of information for site characterization and seismic monitoring. With the growing demand for exploitation of alternative energy resources (e.g. geothermal projects) in urban and suburban environments, understanding the spatial distribution and seismic noise levels - generated by both natural sources and anthropogenic sources - is critical for subsurface characterization as well as for optimizing microseismic monitoring networks.

In this work, we analyzed eight days of continuous recordings from a temporary seismic monitoring network in Switzerland. The main noise sources in the study area were identified through the analysis of satellite maps and their corresponding spectral characteristics were extracted from the passive seismic records. Seismic noise from the most powerful sources (trains) was used to derive the frequency-dependent attenuation coefficient (α). Moreover, seismic interferometry was applied to a subset of stations to estimate Rayleigh waves dispersion. These two pieces of information were combined to estimate the seismic quality factor (Q) of the subsurface.

We will highlight how the noise spectra database we built is a step toward optimizing several seismological applications. Specifically, it will reduce interpolation-related uncertainty in probabilistic power spectral density noise maps and will provide a first-order approximation of expected noise levels acting as a predictive tool in unmonitored areas.

 

This study was developed in the frame of “The Geosciences for Sustainable Development” project (Budget Ministero dell’Università e della Ricerca–Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2023–2027 C93C23002690001).

How to cite: Abdulghany, A. A., Fuggi, A., Brovelli, A., Cassiani, G., and Barone, I.: Ambient Seismic Noise: From Characterization to Simulation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13022, 2026.

EGU26-13369 | ECS | Orals | SM5.1

Shallow crustal seismic velocity variations in the Nagano region, Japan, imaged by ambient noise seismic interferometry 

Louisa Bagot, Bogdan Enescu, Florent Brenguier, Nicolas Paris, Quentin Higueret, Yusuke Kakiuchi, Masatoshi Miyazawa, Shiro Ohmi, Tetsuya Takeda, François Lavoué, and Aurélien Mordret

The magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake occurred on March 11, 2011, leading to a devastating tsunami, causing extensive damage and many casualties. It also triggered seismicity all over Japan, such as in the Nagano region, where the Mw 6.2 Northern Nagano earthquake occurred 13 hours later, or in the Mount Fuji area, where the Mw 6.0 East Shizuoka earthquake occurred on March 15. In this study, we focus on the Northern Nagano region, assessing the temporal evolution of the seismic wave velocity, using ambient noise seismic interferometry. By applying the same approach, we also estimate the seismic wave changes around Mount Fuji. Velocity changes can be caused by coseismic damage, so we compare these results with the distribution of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA).

   The method used in this study consists in correlating continuous noise recordings to estimate the temporal seismic velocity variations in the medium. We use the NIED Hi-net three components waveform data from 110 stations to compute daily cross-correlation functions, which are then averaged with a moving window of 30 days. We retrieve the components of the Green’s function of the medium between pairs of stations, for all the component combinations. Using the wavelet cross-spectrum analysis, we estimate the seismic wave velocity variations of all stations, for the period between January-August 2011, for 0.1-0.9Hz. The same approach is also applied around Mount Fuji area. We thus obtain the spatio-temporal distribution of seismic velocities for both Northen Nagano and Mount Fuji regions. We compare these velocity variations to the distribution of the PGA observed for both regions. Overall, areas with larger velocity decreases experienced larger PGA during the mainshocks. Nevertheless, some other patterns can also be observed; for example, we observe anomalously large velocity drops for some stations located near volcanoes, in line with previous observations.

  Our ongoing work aims to estimate the velocity variations from two events in the Kyūshū region: the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and the 2024 Hyūga-nada earthquake. We could then compare these non-triggered events, of smaller magnitudes, to events triggered by the Tohoku-oki earthquake, and this analysis may help identify similar patterns comparable with the Nagano area, especially near volcanoes.

How to cite: Bagot, L., Enescu, B., Brenguier, F., Paris, N., Higueret, Q., Kakiuchi, Y., Miyazawa, M., Ohmi, S., Takeda, T., Lavoué, F., and Mordret, A.: Shallow crustal seismic velocity variations in the Nagano region, Japan, imaged by ambient noise seismic interferometry, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13369, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13369, 2026.

EGU26-13619 | Posters on site | SM5.1

Secondary Microseism Propagation Across the Mid-Atlantic Ridge: Insights from 3D Seismo-Acoustic Modelling and OBS Observations 

Athira Vijayan, Florian Le Pape, Christopher J. Bean, and Sergei Lebedev

The North Atlantic Ocean has a significant role in the Earth’s climate and local weather conditions. Ocean wave-wave interactions generate seismo-acoustic noise known as secondary microseisms, which provide valuable information on storm activity, long-term climate variability, and ocean-land-atmosphere coupling. While terrestrial seismic stations have been shown to successfully detect and localize deep-ocean secondary microseism sources, the recorded wavefields are inevitably influenced by propagation effects along the source-receiver path, including attenuation, scattering, and interactions with complex Earth structures. The extent to which major tectonic features modify these signals remains an active area of research. 

This study investigates secondary microseism propagation effects in the North Atlantic with a focus on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, a major tectonic structure located along the path of microseisms generated south of Greenland as they propagate towards Europe. A combined approach is adopted using numerical simulations and ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) observations from the SEA-SEIS project in order to provide new constraints on microseism wave propagation in structurally complex oceanic environments that define mid-ocean ridges. A 3D seismo-acoustic model of the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge region is generated, incorporating realistic bathymetry and crustal structure. Synthetic seismograms reveal that the ridge strongly modifies seismic wave amplitudes and frequency content, with pronounced scattering and mode conversions observed near the ridge axis.  

The simulations further suggest a partial screening effect across the ridge, whereby signals from synthetic microseism sources located on one side of the ridge show reduced amplitudes at stations on the opposite side. This effect is likely associated with scattering from shallow bathymetric structure linked to the ridge’s complex morphology, while deeper structural heterogeneity and velocity variations also contribute. In addition, the analysis of the OBS stations in the Eastern Atlantic region reveal interesting patterns in ambient noise cross-correlations when combined with the expected microseisms source regions derived from ocean wave models. Preliminary results show that there seems to be no clear dominant propagation direction towards the East when sources are located south of Greenland, west of the ridge. These observations are consistent with the simulation results and indicate the significant influence of bathymetry on microseism propagation 

How to cite: Vijayan, A., Le Pape, F., Bean, C. J., and Lebedev, S.: Secondary Microseism Propagation Across the Mid-Atlantic Ridge: Insights from 3D Seismo-Acoustic Modelling and OBS Observations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13619, 2026.

EGU26-13967 | ECS | Orals | SM5.1

Locating Source Regions of Short-Period Secondary Microseisms 

Samuel Jorde, Martin Schimmel, Eleonore Stutzmann, Zongbo Xu, Pilar Sánchez-Pastor, Helena Seivane, and Jordi Dı́az

Primary and secondary microseisms are both generated by ocean wave interactions. It has been observed that, in some regions, the secondary microseism splits into long- and short-period bands. Short-period secondary microseism (SPSM) sources have traditionally been associated with nearby coastal segments, local storms or wave heights, and relatively constant offshore distances. However, the parameters controlling this split, as well as the precise spatial distribution of SPSM sources, remain poorly understood.

Motivated by the observation of a frequency bimodality in seismic noise cross-correlations in NE Iberia, we find evidence that the secondary microseism split occurs more broadly across the Mediterranean region. Using a combination of complementary and independent approaches, such as polarization analysis, source mechanism modeling, and attenuation assessment, we investigate possible variations in the location of source regions within the microseismic band. As a result, distinct source regions are consistently identified across all the methodologies employed, providing insight into the microseismic sources.

We further demonstrate that SPSM sources are well constrained, spatially localized, and highly dynamic. In this study, we reveal key variables directly related to the generation of SPSM sources, enhancing our understanding of the parameters controlling their spatial distribution. These findings are likely applicable to other regions with similar conditions.

How to cite: Jorde, S., Schimmel, M., Stutzmann, E., Xu, Z., Sánchez-Pastor, P., Seivane, H., and Dı́az, J.: Locating Source Regions of Short-Period Secondary Microseisms, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13967, 2026.

EGU26-14244 | Orals | SM5.1

Monitoring P- and S-wave velocity changes in the San Jacinto fault zone (Southern California) using train tremors recorded by a long-term, dense nodal array 

François Lavoué, Yixiao Sheng, Quentin Higueret, Florent Brenguier, Aurélien Mordret, Coralie Aubert, Dan Hollis, Frank Vernon, and Yehuda Ben-Zion

The San Jacinto fault is one of the most active faults in Southern California and a major cause of seismic hazard. Estimating its capability to generate large earthquakes requires a detailed understanding of its mechanical properties and of their temporal changes at seismogenic depths, which remain difficult to characterize with standard seismic data and methods. In this work, we use 2.5 years of seismic noise recorded by a dense array of 300 nodes deployed at the Piñon Flat Observatory (PFO) from April 2022 to October 2024 to monitor the San Jacinto fault zone with tremor-like signals generated by freight trains travelling in the nearby Coachella valley. Recent studies have shown that trains are powerful and repeatable sources of high-frequency (> 1 Hz) body waves that can be used for monitoring seismic velocity variations at seismogenic depths (5 - 10 km) by seismic interferometry, but they have only exploited P waves so far. Here we show that cross-correlating train tremors recorded on both sides of the San Jacinto fault zone enables us to retrieve both P and S waves, and therefore to measure relative changes of both VP and VS with time, from which we can derive relative changes of an effective VP/VS ratio in the sampled volume. While the 2.5-year-long observation period does not include significant earthquakes in the target area, our results show fluctuations of seismic velocities and of the derived VP/VS ratio, with long-term trends as well as more rapid changes. The quantitative interpretation of these variations remains to be specified, but they are likely related to changes in stress, porosity, or fluid pore pressure at depth. Combining these results with other observables (e.g., detailed catalogs of micro-seismicity) will provide valuable information on the dynamic mechanical behaviour of the San Jacinto fault, potentially yielding insights into the evolution of cracks and fluids in the fault zone.

How to cite: Lavoué, F., Sheng, Y., Higueret, Q., Brenguier, F., Mordret, A., Aubert, C., Hollis, D., Vernon, F., and Ben-Zion, Y.: Monitoring P- and S-wave velocity changes in the San Jacinto fault zone (Southern California) using train tremors recorded by a long-term, dense nodal array, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14244, 2026.

EGU26-15483 | Orals | SM5.1

Opportunistic and Exhaustive Full-Waveform Modeling using Seismic Interferometry 

Dirk-Jan van Manen, Giacomo Aloisi, and Johan Robertsson

Full-waveform modeling plays a critical role in many areas of seismology. After decades of research and technological progress, fundamentally, it remains computationally expensive. The largest computational models, on the biggest clusters, can take hours to simulate. This still puts full-waveform modeling out of reach for the most time-critical applications. It also means that whenever large regional or community datasets are computed, difficult choices have to be made regarding probable and preferred source and receiver locations.

 

For applications that rely on elastic models that are updated only every few months or years, the status quo does not have to be this way. We revisit an early interferometry idea that makes it possible to exhaustively compute full-waveforms for any given model, and to store and recall those waveforms efficiently. Based on elastodynamic reciprocity theorems of the correlation type, we present two variants of the approach; opportunistic and exhaustive modeling, both discussed in detail below. The former allows any user to benefit, indirectly, from simulations carried by any other user, by turning every source point ever used into a potential receiver location, while the latter could enable fast (sub-second) computation of full-waveforms for earthquakes with complex rupture types occurring anywhere in a 3D model.

 

Opportunistic full-waveform modeling exploits expressions for elastodynamic Green’s function retrieval between source points in the volume. Whenever a user submits a simulation for one or more sources in the interior, in addition to storing the wavefield at the user-designated receiver locations, the wavefield on the surrounding surface, just inside the PMLs, is also separately stored. By consistently and opportunistically doing this whenever users submit such computations, full-waveform Green’s functions can later be computed between any pair of source points for which the wavefield on the surrounding surface was stored. Over time, the number of full-waveforms that can be retrieved this way grows quadratically. The advantage of this approach is that it requires much less disk, and it does not require any sorting. The disadvantage is: only full-waveforms between previously visited source points can be computed.

 

Exhaustive modeling exploits the reciprocal expressions for elastodynamic Green’s function retrieval, i.e., between receivers in the volume. When discretising the wave equation using a full-waveform method, the wavefield in the interior is evaluated at every location and at every time step of the simulation. Thus, the cost of a receiver is mainly disk. By systematically illuminating the model from the surrounding surface and storing the wavefield in as many points as possible, it becomes possible to retrieve full-waveform data between any pair of points at which the wavefield was stored, using only crosscorrelations and summations. This makes sub-second full-waveform computation feasible for any pair of points, even in 3D.  

 

We demonstrate the exhaustive approach on the 2D elastic Marmousi model and the opportunistic approach on a 3D version of the same model. Among other things, we show, how a comprehensive 3.8 TB dataset allows retrieving an exhaustive 1B full-waveforms in the 2D model.

 

How to cite: van Manen, D.-J., Aloisi, G., and Robertsson, J.: Opportunistic and Exhaustive Full-Waveform Modeling using Seismic Interferometry, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15483, 2026.

EGU26-15840 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.1

Investigating body waves radiated by urbanized sedimentary basins for seismic monitoring 

Yusuke Kakiuchi, Florent Brenguier, François Lavoué, Quentin Higueret, Aurélien Mordret, Nicolas Paris, Louisa Bagot, and Margot Vignon-Livache

Seismic velocity monitoring using body waves has recently emerged as a promising approach to investigate temporal variations in crustal structures. In particular, body waves generated by specific, high-frequency (> 1 Hz) anthropic sources, such as train traffic, have been shown to provide stable and repeatable illumination of the crust at seismogenic depths (5 – 10 km). However, the applicability of this approach is geographically limited to targets located in the vicinity of these strong and continuous train-induced seismic sources. This limitation motivates the search for other opportune sources of continuous, high-frequency body waves for seismic monitoring.

To this end, we revisit the dense array data of the FaultScan experiment, originally deployed at the Piñon Flat Observatory (Southern California) to study the San Jacinto fault zone via seismicity analysis and velocity monitoring using train-induced signals. In this work, we look at quiet periods, in the absence of strong seismic events (no earthquakes, no train signals), in order to characterize the remaining ambient noise at high frequency (1 – 10 Hz), using beamforming and time-frequency analysis. During these quiet periods, we consistently observe body waves (both P and S waves) coming from the direction of the Los Angeles and Riverside urbanized sedimentary basins. The amplitude of these body waves exhibits a clear weekly pattern, suggesting that anthropogenic activity is their primary source mechanism. We hypothesize that anthropic sources within the basin may excite basin resonance and lead to the scattering of body waves at the basin-bedrock interface. We further demonstrate that these basin-radiated body waves can be successfully extracted by cross-correlation in the frequency band 2 – 6 Hz.

This wave field provides a good opportunity to investigate the characteristics of the basin resonance through seismic observations from outside the basins. Besides, by characterizing the spatiotemporal properties of body-wave energy from sedimentary basins, this study could extend the applicability of passive monitoring techniques using body waves to a wider range of tectonic and urban environments, including regions lacking strong specific anthropogenic sources such as trains.

How to cite: Kakiuchi, Y., Brenguier, F., Lavoué, F., Higueret, Q., Mordret, A., Paris, N., Bagot, L., and Vignon-Livache, M.: Investigating body waves radiated by urbanized sedimentary basins for seismic monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15840, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15840, 2026.

EGU26-16367 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.1

Urban Activity Monitoring in Multiple European Cities Using Ambient Seismic Noise 

Yu Hong, Jianghai Xia, Lapo Boschi, and Piero Poli

With the continuous growth of urban populations, monitoring human activity in urban areas is increasingly important for social stability, infrastructure management, and sustainable urban development. Conventional approaches for monitoring human activity, such as wearable devices, survey sensor networks, and satellite remote sensing, are often constrained by privacy concerns, data accessibility, or weather conditions (Chen and Xia, 2023). In this context, ambient seismic noise recorded by seismometers has emerged as a promising alternative for monitoring urban activity, offering high temporal resolution and robust, privacy-preserving observations (Lecocq et al., 2020; Poli et al., 2020). We analyze ambient seismic noise recorded at stations across multiple European cities and countries to investigate the relationship between human activity and seismic noise characteristics. The analysis focuses on frequency bands dominated by anthropogenic signals and examines temporal and spatial variations in seismic noise levels. The results demonstrate that urban ambient seismic noise contains rich information related to human activity and exhibits pronounced diurnal and weekly cycles, as well as variability associated with holidays, weather changes, and major societal disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate that seismic noise analysis can reveal how multiple factors jointly influence the spatiotemporal patterns of human activity in large urban regions. The results demonstrate the efficacy of ambient seismic observations in facilitating near-real-time monitoring of urban dynamics. Such an approach may provide valuable complementary information for governmental agencies and policymakers, supporting dynamic urban management and decision-making from a geophysical perspective.

How to cite: Hong, Y., Xia, J., Boschi, L., and Poli, P.: Urban Activity Monitoring in Multiple European Cities Using Ambient Seismic Noise, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16367, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16367, 2026.

EGU26-18764 | Posters on site | SM5.1

Combined ambient seismic noise tomography and H/V analysis to decipher the shallow subsurface in Saxon Lusatia (eastern Germany) 

Trond Ryberg, Christian Haberland, Andreas Rietbrock, Mike Lindner, and Sandro Körschner

Saxon Lusatia (eastern Germany) is considered a region with particularly low seismic background noise. It is therefore earmarked as a possible location for a so-called Low Seismic Lab as part of the newly founded German Center for Astrophysics (DZA) and for the Einstein Telescope, the new generation of gravitational wave detectors.

As part of the preliminary site investigations, several temporary seismic networks (a total of almost 400 stations) were operated in the area between Bautzen, Kamenz, and Hoyerswerda in 2024 and 2025. The main objectives were to create a 3D model of the subsurface (shear wave velocity; ambient noise tomography) using the seismic ambient noise field, and to investigate the spatial-temporal distribution of seismic noise (and noise sources).

Following the general approaches to analyzing ambient seismic noise, we started with a division of the data sets (vertical component data) into hourly segments, followed by bias removal and trend correction, as well as spectral brightening and 1-bit normalization. These pre-processed hourly segments were then used to calculate cross-correlations. Finally, these individual hourly cross-correlations were stacked to obtain the final empirical Green's functions for every station pair.

In the next step, the Rayleigh dispersion curves were determined interactively for a large number of cross-correlations. A general observation for the FTAN displays was that in almost all cases, the energy content of the selectable dispersion curves is very frequency-limited (typically 1.5–4 Hz) and that the data is noisy. This suggests that the tomographic resolution of the subsurface structures will be quite limited. Given the expected model complexity with a strongly varying layer of unconsolidated sediments of variable thickness (1–200 m) on top of high-velocity granodiorite, we focused our dispersion curve analysis on traces with offsets < 2 km.

The inversion was performed using a Bayesian statistical method, namely a transdimensional hierarchical Monte Carlo search using Markov chains and a Metropolis/Hastings sampler. This is a full tomographic inversion technique that can be used to derive the 3D distribution of shear wave velocity and the associated uncertainty. Given the difficult initial situation with regard to the data (noise, band-limited), we extended the inversion of the dispersion curves to include H/V data from 128 three-component stations.

Using seismic ambient noise data (dispersion curve and H/V data), we were able to successfully create a three-dimensional model of the shallow (<1 km) shear wave velocity structure beneath the Lausitz region. Lower velocities generally indicate softer, less consolidated, or more saturated (e.g., water-bearing) sediments near the surface. Higher velocities typically occur at greater depths, where the sediments are more compacted or transition into bedrock. The spatial distribution of the low-velocity layer corresponds very well with the distribution of granodiorite and greywacke outcrops, and the depth extent fits well with information from boreholes.

 

How to cite: Ryberg, T., Haberland, C., Rietbrock, A., Lindner, M., and Körschner, S.: Combined ambient seismic noise tomography and H/V analysis to decipher the shallow subsurface in Saxon Lusatia (eastern Germany), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18764, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18764, 2026.

EGU26-19161 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.1

Monitoring seismic velocity variations using DAS data: a workflow based on seismic swarm analysis 

Frichnel Wilma Mamfoumbi Ozoumet, Diane Rivet, Marie Baillet, and Alister Trabattoni

Monitoring temporal variations of seismic velocities (dv/v) is a key tool for investigating stress changes and damage processes in active tectonic regions. Traditional dv/v studies rely on dense seismic networks or on repeating earthquakes, which can limit their spatial resolution and applicability. Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), by providing continuous and densely sampled measurements of the seismic wavefield, offers new opportunities to overcome these limitations and to develop high-resolution velocity monitoring strategies.

In this study, we investigate how dv/v can be estimated from DAS data by focusing on the analysis of seismic swarms. We develop a processing workflow and apply it to DAS data acquired from three submarine telecommunication fiber-optic cables of ~150 km each, with ~10,000 sensing points per cable, deployed in the central part of Chile (Abyss network). We first identify seismic swarms and quantify waveform similarity between events using multi-channel cross-correlation analysis. We then select event pairs exhibiting high waveform similarity across multiple DAS channels for further analysis. We analyze coda waves using a cross-spectral approach to estimate coherence and phase delays between events, and we infer relative seismic velocity variations from a linear regression of the measured time delays over selected coda time windows starting a few seconds after the S-wave arrival.

Through this work, we present a systematic framework for estimating dv/v from DAS-recorded seismic swarms and assess its sensitivity to event similarity, frequency band, and coda window selection. This work shows that seismic swarms, when recorded by dense DAS arrays, provide a promising basis for developing high-resolution seismic velocity monitoring strategies.

How to cite: Mamfoumbi Ozoumet, F. W., Rivet, D., Baillet, M., and Trabattoni, A.: Monitoring seismic velocity variations using DAS data: a workflow based on seismic swarm analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19161, 2026.

Seismic While Drilling (SWD) offers the possibility of imaging the subsurface in real time by using the drill bit as a seismic source. This research is part of the Drilling the Ivrea-Verbano zonE (DIVE) project, run as ICDP expedition 5071, and it examines the feasibility of using a diamond core drill bit for SWD in two boreholes (5071_1_A and 5071_1_B) in hard-rock conditions. Continuous seismic data were recorded with three-component MEMS sensor arrays. The aim was to determine the detectability of weak seismic signals from the drill bit at the surface. Advanced processing techniques, such as noise suppression, wavefield separation and cross-coherence interferometry were deployed, but no drill-bit signals could be reliably detected. Noise from the drill rig, generators, mud pumps, and general site activity dominated the recordings. This result highlights the fundamental challenges of SWD with weak sources in hard-rock environments. It also provides important lessons for future SWD campaigns, such as the quantification of detection limits for diamond core drilling, the need for noise mitigation, and the likely requirement of near-bit or downhole sensors.

 

How to cite: Trabi, B., Bleibinhaus, F., and Greenwood, A.: Lessons Learned from Seismic While Drilling with Diamond Core Drill Bits from ICDP Expedition 5071 in the Ivrea-Verbano Zone (Western Alps, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19248, 2026.

EGU26-19450 | ECS | Orals | SM5.1

Nonlinear stress dependence from seismic interferometry for postseismic healing of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake 

Haidi Yang, Li-Yun Fu, Qing-Yu Wang, and Michel Campillo

Postseismic healing generally involves nonlinear mechanical deformations characterized by the strain-dependent changes of seismic velocities. Brenguier et al. (2008) documented postseismic seismic-velocity changes after the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and primarily compared dv/v with along-fault displacement; GPS-derived strain was discussed mainly at an order-of-magnitude level, suggesting a potential link between dv/v and strain without providing a detailed quantitative analysis. Here ambient noise studies using seismic interferometry reveal the stress-dependent change of seismic velocities during the fault healing. To quantify this coupling, we develop acoustoelastic seismic interferometry that couples ambient-noise Green’s-function reconstruction with an acoustoelastic stress–velocity mapping to convert interferometric dv/v into the spatiotemporal evolution of stress changes during healing. The mapping is evaluated using second- and third-order elastic constants taken from experimental studies with Snake River Plain Basalt (Wang and Schmitt, 2024). We validate the approach independently using coseismic stress-drop and postseismic stress-recovery constraints with active-source benchmarks reported by Niu et al. (2008). Applied to the Parkfield sequence, we analyze the dv/v recovery trend with the corresponding stress-recovery pattern. This provides a physics-based route from phenomenological dv/v monitoring to quantitative inference of fault-zone stress evolution. The theoretical framework can be extended to other fault systems to continuously image stress transfer and healing from ambient noise and to inform earthquake-cycle models.

References

Niu, F., Silver, P. G., Daley, T. M., Cheng, X., & Majer, E. L. (2008). Preseismic velocity changes observed from active source monitoring at the Parkfield SAFOD drill site. Nature, 454(7201), 204-208.

Wang, W., & Schmitt, D. R. (2024). Measurement of the static nonlinear third-order elastic moduli of rocks: Problems and applicability. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 129(10), e2024JB028784.

Brenguier, F., Campillo, M., Hadziioannou, C., Shapiro, N. M., Nadeau, R. M., & Larose, É. (2008). Postseismic relaxation along the San Andreas fault at Parkfield from continuous seismological observations. science, 321(5895), 1478-1481.

How to cite: Yang, H., Fu, L.-Y., Wang, Q.-Y., and Campillo, M.: Nonlinear stress dependence from seismic interferometry for postseismic healing of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19450, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19450, 2026.

EGU26-20009 | ECS | Orals | SM5.1

Temporal variation of seismic surface-wave properties and impact on exploration and monitoring of geothermal resources 

Claudia Finger, Saskia Neugebauer, Max Dormann, and Katrin Löer

Ambient seismic noise surface waves are routinely used to explore subsurface velocities. In contrast to active seismic exploration, seismic noise methods are cost-efficient, sensitive to shear velocities that can indicate fluid content, and can be repeated to highlight temporal variations.

Three-component ambient noise beamforming (B3AM) uses three-component sensor arrays to determine dominant wave types and their properties in small time windows at individual frequencies. Thus, wavefield composition, wavenumber, propagation direction, and Rayleigh wave ellipticities can be stacked for all times or analysed consecutively. To interpret temporal variations in these properties, the variations of noise sources need to be isolated from variations in the subsurface. We aim to understand the sensitivity of seismic surface waves to subsurface changes by analysing an existing ten-month long dataset in the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany, where during the recording time no significant subsurface changes can be anticipated.

Analysing the continuous timeseries with B3Am and stacking properties for a rolling five days, we found two prominent noise source directions active at different times during the year. Observing the surface wave properties over time jointly and separated by apparent noise sources revealed different scales of property variations. Small-scale sharp variations of a few days and long-term property changes over a few months were observed. Finally, dispersion curves show significant differences when observing different times of year but not when comparing different noise sources. This enables us to interpret the variations of surface-wave properties in the context of the local geological context and global noise source variations.

How to cite: Finger, C., Neugebauer, S., Dormann, M., and Löer, K.: Temporal variation of seismic surface-wave properties and impact on exploration and monitoring of geothermal resources, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20009, 2026.

EGU26-20526 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.1

Cyclone-Induced Microseismic Signals Recorded in Sumatra During Tropical Cyclone Senyar 

Kadek Hendrawan Palgunadi, Andrean V. Simanjuntak, Dwa Desa Warnana, Pepen Supendi, Bayu Pranata, Daryono Daryono, Nelly Florida, and Jean-Paul Montagner

On 27 November 2025, Tropical Cyclone (TC) Senyar impacted northeastern Sumatra, providing the first opportunity to study cyclone-induced microseismic signals in Indonesia. The characteristics of the cyclone were analyzed using continuous seismic data recorded between 24 and 30 November 2025 from the seismic network across Sumatra. Recent advances in noise interferometry allow the estimation of empirical Green’s functions through the calculation of cross-correlation tensors. These functions are dominated by surface waves, enabling the monitoring of seismic velocity and anisotropy through Horizontal Polarization Anomaly (HPA). In this study, we evaluate the seismic effects of TC Senyar on ambient seismic noise. The results show an amplification of ambient seismic noise dominated by microseismic activity in the frequency range of 0.10 to 0.25 Hz, characterized by an enveloped waveform associated with TC Senyar. Seismic displacement and energy were detected several hours after the cyclone passed near the observation area, at distances of approximately 20 to 30 km from the cyclone location. The cyclone reorganized the ocean wave field, and ocean wave–wave interactions likely generated multiple second order microseism sources. The observed HPA pulse reflects a temporary change in the ambient noise source, demonstrating the strong coupling between tropical cyclone dynamics and near-surface seismic observations in the Indonesian region.

How to cite: Palgunadi, K. H., Simanjuntak, A. V., Warnana, D. D., Supendi, P., Pranata, B., Daryono, D., Florida, N., and Montagner, J.-P.: Cyclone-Induced Microseismic Signals Recorded in Sumatra During Tropical Cyclone Senyar, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20526, 2026.

EGU26-21141 | Orals | SM5.1

Tracking groundwater level in the Perth Basin using WA-Array and passive seismic interferometry 

Erdinc Saygin, Peng Guo, and Haoran Lin

Groundwater level variations alter pore pressure within the rock formation and induce measurable changes in seismic velocity.  Using continuous passive seismic data from Phase 1 of the WA-Array, Western Australia, we estimated time-lapse velocity changes in the Perth Basin and used it for tracking groundwater level throughout 2023. By analysing early coda waves from ambient noise cross-correlations, we revealed shear-wave velocity changes (dv/v) up to 0.4% with an annual cycle. The velocity increases during summer and decreases in winter, corresponding to Perth’s dry and wet seasons. These temporal velocity variations show a clear inverse correlation with the groundwater level measurement from borehole, as higher groundwater levels increase pore pressure and reduces seismic velocities. Spatial mapping of the velocity changes using coda-wave sensitivity kernels shows in general consistent results, however, the resolution is limited by the large station spacing (~40 km). Complementary to traditional hydraulic-head observations, our results demonstrate the importance of having long-term seismic networks (arrays) in metropolitan area for cost-effective long-term groundwater level monitoring.

How to cite: Saygin, E., Guo, P., and Lin, H.: Tracking groundwater level in the Perth Basin using WA-Array and passive seismic interferometry, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21141, 2026.

EGU26-21232 | Posters on site | SM5.1

Trade-off between signal coherence and ambient noise (3C) beamforming results in a complex noise environment 

Dirk Becker, Hadrien Michel, Michael Kiehn, Shahar Shani-Kadmiel, Mike Tomassen, Soumen Koley, Frédéric Nguyen, Conny Hammer, and Céline Hadziioannou
Ambient seismic noise beamforming tries to identify the direction (traditional one component beamforming) or the direction and wavetype (three component beamforming) of the incoming ambient noise field. If the signal is weak, either taking longer time intervals or stacking several consecutive time windows is employed to obtain a sharper image of the underlying noise sources. However, this also reduces the temporal resolution of the noise sources and might prevent the identification of distinct sources in the case of a temporally highly variable noise field. In addition, the presence of very local, often station specific, noise sources can compromise the coherence of the seismic noise field, preventing the identification of noise sources. The identification and subsequent removal of either time intervals or single stations with exceptionally low signal correlation could thus also lead to an improvement in the temporal resolution of the seismic noise sources and the classification of the ambient seismic noise field.
In this study, we investigate the ambient seismic noise field recorded with different temporary short period seismic networks in the Euregio Meuse-Rhine (EMR). The region is a candidate site for the next generation gravitational wave telescope (Einstein telescope) and characterizing the anthropogenic ambient surface noise field with high spatial and temporal variability containing many different noise sources (e.g. highways, railway lines, industry, wind turbines, urban settlements) is essential. We investigate the spatio-temporal coherence of the seismic wavefield to identify time intervals and regions with high waveform coherence which are then investigated for possible ambient noise sources. The one component and three component (when available) beamforming results are compared with results from matched field processing (MFP) to validate that the sources are outside the recording network and to estimate the possible geographic source area.
We observe a clear diurnal character of the coherence of the ambient seismic noise field over a wide frequency range from about 2 to 20 Hz with significantly higher coherence values during night. This indicates the prevalence of very local noise contributions during working hours. In addition, a clear anti-correlation between wavefield coherence and wind speed also indicates the local character of wind generated noise. Limiting beamforming analysis to time windows and stations with high coherence improves the beamforming results and the temporal resolution during time intervals identified as coherent. Beamforming results during time intervals with high waveform coherence often show stable backazimuth directions indicating persistent ambient noise sources. The source location outside the recording network is confirmed by the results of the MFP analysis. This also holds for time intervals during working hours and can be confirmed by MFP processing. Results from such investigations might be used as best practices for the spatio-temporal characterization of ambient noise sources in the case of highly complex noise fields.

How to cite: Becker, D., Michel, H., Kiehn, M., Shani-Kadmiel, S., Tomassen, M., Koley, S., Nguyen, F., Hammer, C., and Hadziioannou, C.: Trade-off between signal coherence and ambient noise (3C) beamforming results in a complex noise environment, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21232, 2026.

EGU26-443 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.2

Monitoring subsidence in Mexico City with ambient noise 

Jianye Zong, Laura Ermert, Qingyu Wang, Dario Solano-Rojas, Xinlei Sun, Nikolai Shapiro, Enrique Cabral-Cano, Estelle Chaussard, Luis Quintanar, and Luis Eduardo Garcia Martinez

Located mainly on thick lacustrine sediment, pumping ground water has led to pronounced subsidence in Mexico City, with a rate of nearly 0.35m per year in the worst affected locations. The load of new infrastructure exacerbates the problem. Monitoring the subsidence is crucial for understanding the mechanism and hazard prevention. While InSAR and other methods have provided highly resolved subsidence maps, they lack depth resolution.

Seismic velocity, which reflects the state of the sediment (e.g. its stress, pore pressure, and other properties), will change with the compaction during the subsidence. Taking advantage of the omnipresent urban ambient noise recorded by the 30 broad band seismic stations in periods between 2010 and2021 around Mexico City, we calculate the cross correlations between different station pairs to determine the seismic velocity variations with coda wave interferometry in different frequency bands. We aim to obtain the spatial and depth distribution of seismic velocity variations using coda wave sensitivities and surface wave dispersion Previous studies have explained the long durations of ground-motion that has been observed during teleseismic and local earthquakes by higher-mode surface wave propagation in the competent rocks underneath the Mexico Basin, which has important implications for the depth sensitivity of any observed velocity changes.

To determine the precise relationship between the subsidence and seismic velocity variations, we will further analysis the tectonic and environment effects. Our study aims to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the subsidence in Mexico City.

How to cite: Zong, J., Ermert, L., Wang, Q., Solano-Rojas, D., Sun, X., Shapiro, N., Cabral-Cano, E., Chaussard, E., Quintanar, L., and Garcia Martinez, L. E.: Monitoring subsidence in Mexico City with ambient noise, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-443, 2026.

The ML 5.8 Gyeongju earthquake occurred on 12 September 2016 at 20:32:54 (KST), with a focal depth of approximately 15 km, along the Naenam Fault near Gyeongju, southeastern Korea. This event represents the strongest instrumentally recorded earthquake in southeastern Korea and has raised significant concerns regarding seismic hazards and associated hydrological responses in the Korean Peninsula. In this study, we investigate coseismic groundwater-level responses associated with the Gyeongju earthquake using data from the Korean National Groundwater Monitoring Network (NGMN). A total of 24 monitoring wells located within a 50 km radius of the epicenter were analyzed to assess the detectability and spatial characteristics of groundwater-level changes induced by the earthquake.

 

Most wells did not exhibit obvious groundwater-level responses at the time of the earthquake. This limited detectability is primarily attributed to two factors: (1) the earthquake occurred between scheduled measurement times of the National Groundwater Monitoring Network, which records groundwater levels only at hourly intervals, thereby preventing the capture of rapid coseismic fluctuations; and (2) coincident rainfall events likely masked subtle earthquake-induced groundwater-level changes, making it difficult to reliably identify wells exhibiting true coseismic responses. Nevertheless, after applying a moving-average filter to remove short-term noise, subtle but systematic groundwater-level changes were identified at four monitoring wells. Among these, three wells showed groundwater-level rises, while one well exhibited a groundwater-level decline.

 

To explore the physical mechanisms underlying these observations, static coseismic crustal strain fields were simulated using the Okada-based earthquake strain model. The resulting volumetric strain at a depth of 100 m was calculated and spatially mapped, and the magnitude and sign of the inferred poroelastic pressure responses to these volumetric strains were quantitatively compared with the observed equivalent groundwater-level changes at the monitoring wells. The results reveal a clear correspondence between the sign of coseismic strain and observed groundwater-level changes. Wells located in contraction-dominated regions experienced groundwater-level rises, whereas the well located in an extension-dominated region exhibited groundwater-level decline. This spatial consistency contrasts sharply with a previous study based on Coulomb stress change analyses, which reported no systematic relationship between earthquake-induced stress changes and groundwater-level variations in Korea.

 

Our findings provide compelling evidence that coseismic groundwater-level changes in Korea can be physically linked to elastic strain induced by earthquakes, even within a monitoring network not originally designed for high-frequency seismic-hydrologic studies. These results highlight the importance of identifying sensitive wells and upgrading the selected stations with high-resolution pressure transducers and minute-scale sampling intervals. Such improvements would significantly enhance the capability of the national monitoring system to capture earthquake–groundwater interactions and provide valuable data for assessing seismic hazards in southeastern Korea experiencing increasing seismic activity with events of MW ≥ 5.0.

How to cite: Lee, E. and Yeo, I. W.: Assessing Coseismic Groundwater-Level Responses to the 2016 ML 5.8 Gyeongju Earthquake: Implications for National Groundwater Monitoring Networks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6134, 2026.

EGU26-9944 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.2

Hydromechanical control of near-surface seismic velocity changes revealed by ambient seismic noise monitoring during groundwater pumping 

Richard Kramer, Han Bai, Xuan Feng, Clément Estève, Yang Lu, and Götz Bokelmann

Climate change and increasing water demand highlight the need for robust, spatially resolved monitoring of groundwater systems during pumping operations. Here we use ambient seismic noise for monitoring seismic velocity changes during a series of controlled groundwater pumping tests near Nickelsdorf, Burgenland (Austria; Kramer et al. 2026). Seismic noise was continuously recorded for about three months, covering periods before, during, and after pumping. We exploit train-dominated signals recorded during the experiment to reconstruct noise cross-correlations and estimate relative velocity changes (dv/v) from ballistic waves in multiple frequency bands. The dv/v time series show percent-level variations that closely follow the timing of the pumping and recovery phases and correlate with water-level fluctuations observed in the wells. To characterize the spatial structure of these changes, we invert dv/v along the profile. The inversion reveals both a smooth background trend along the profile and pronounced local anomalies near the pumping wells. We also introduce a hydromechanical dv/v–water-level coupling model that separates a slowly varying background response from well-specific local contributions and links near-surface seismic velocity changes to the underlying hydrological processes.

 

Kramer et al. (2026). Monitoring Groundwater Pumping Using Time-Lapse Tomography from Ambient Seismic Noise. Submitted to Water Resources Research.

How to cite: Kramer, R., Bai, H., Feng, X., Estève, C., Lu, Y., and Bokelmann, G.: Hydromechanical control of near-surface seismic velocity changes revealed by ambient seismic noise monitoring during groundwater pumping, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9944, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9944, 2026.

EGU26-12501 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.2

Passive seismic interferometry and the influence of environmental forcings across scales  

Laura Bogner, Richard Kramer, Charlotte Bruland, Céline Hadziioannou, Nadege Langet, and Anne Obermann

We explore the application of passive seismic interferometry across multiple spatial and temporal scales to investigate hydro-mechanical processes in mountainous terrain. At the larger scale, we analyze continuous seismic data from multiple stations in the Swiss Seismological Network spanning over two decades to investigate long-term trends and seasonal patterns in seismic velocity across the Swiss Alps. Our results reveal clear seasonal cycles for all investigated stations, likely due to environmental influences, such as temperature and precipitation, as well as coupled mechanisms that potentially influence subsurface water systems. These observations are part of an ongoing effort to establish an understanding of mass-balance changes driven by glacier retreat and altered precipitation patterns, which are directly affecting slope stability and groundwater recharge dynamics in a rapidly changing Alpine environment.

Complementing the insights of this large-scale study across Switzerland, we present a detailed case study from the Åknes rockslide in Western Norway, to highlight the potential of passive seismic interferometry (Bogner et al. 2026) to monitor rapid groundwater level rises and pore pressure induced reductions in rock mass stiffness. We show that a significant decrease in seismic velocity in 2024 correlates with accelerated displacement in the landslide shear zone, demonstrating the method’s sensitivity to both reversible environmental effects and irreversible structural changes.

Together, the studies are showing the versatility of passive seismic monitoring for hydro-mechanical processes from smaller scale site-specific hazard assessment to large-scale regional characterization of climate driven subsurface changes in the Alpes.

 

Bogner, L., Bruland, C., Hadziioannou, C., Obermann, A. and Langet, N. (2026). Seismic noise interferometry to disentangle environmental effects from irreversible subsurface changes at the Åknes rockslide in Western Norway. Submitted to Seismological Research Letters. Under review.

How to cite: Bogner, L., Kramer, R., Bruland, C., Hadziioannou, C., Langet, N., and Obermann, A.: Passive seismic interferometry and the influence of environmental forcings across scales , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12501, 2026.

EGU26-13994 | Posters on site | SM5.2

Passive seismic resonance monitoring of a tailings dam at the Pyhäsalmi mine, Finland 

Roméo Courbis, Yang Lu, and Raul Mollehuara Canales

Tailings dams are critical infrastructures whose failure can cause severe human, economic, and environmental damage. However, their internal state is typically monitored using sparse point measurements, resulting in limited spatial resolution. In this study, we investigate the internal structure and temporal dynamics of a tailings dam at the Pyhäsalmi mine (Finland) using passive seismic HVSR methods. The dataset was acquired within the Horizon Europe Mine.io project over approximately one month using 470 three-component nodal sensors deployed from the crest to the toe of the dam. Our results reveal a clear dominant resonance frequency, which we interpret as being controlled by the water table within the dam. Time-lapse analysis shows systematic temporal variations primarily correlated with weather events, while spatial patterns reveal non-negligible lateral heterogeneity in the internal structure. These findings show that passive seismic methods based on resonance frequency measurements provide a robust, non-invasive, and spatially resolved way to image and monitor tailings dams, complementing conventional measurements and supporting geohazard assessment in the mining context.

How to cite: Courbis, R., Lu, Y., and Mollehuara Canales, R.: Passive seismic resonance monitoring of a tailings dam at the Pyhäsalmi mine, Finland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13994, 2026.

EGU26-14765 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.2

Seismic Velocity Variations as Indicators of Hydromechanical Processes in the Séchilienne Landslide (France) 

Imme Wienk, Antoine Guillemot, Olivier Béjean-Maillard, Mathilde Radiguet, and Eric Larose

The Séchilienne landslide in the French Alps is a large, deep-seated landslide whose dynamics are strongly influenced by local hydro-geological conditions. The highly fractured moving zone has a higher hydraulic conductivity than the underlying stable bedrock, creating a perched aquifer. Below, the bedrock hosts a deep saturated zone. Between 2011 and 2016, the landslide underwent an active phase marked by an initial increase and a subsequent decrease of displacement rates. Since then, the landslide has remained largely stable. The site has been instrumented with a seismic network since 2012 [1], providing a unique opportunity to link relative seismic velocity changes to hydro-geological observations and landslide deformation. We use ambient seismic noise interferometry to compute depth-dependent relative seismic velocity changes (dV/V), reflecting variations in the elastic properties of the landslide.

We observe clear seasonal cycles in seismic velocities within the shallow, fractured part of the landslide. Velocities decrease during periods of elevated groundwater levels and increase during dry conditions, indicating a reversible response to water-table fluctuations in the perched aquifer. Superimposed on this seasonal behavior, dV/V shows a long-term trend during the active phase of the landslide. At shallow depths, dV/V decreases during periods of increasing displacement rates and increases as displacement rates decrease. At greater depths in the deep aquifer, dV/V decreases during the deceleration phase. During the stable period, dV/V shows almost no long-term trend. This behavior indicates sensitivity of dV/V to landslide kinematics and a possible coupling between the shallow and deep aquifers.

The results show that seismic interferometry captures both short-term hydrologically driven variations and longer-term changes connected to landslide kinematics, showing distinct responses at different depths. The approach provides valuable insight into hydromechanical processes governing landslide evolution and highlights the potential of continuous seismic monitoring for slope stability assessment.

[1] Seismic data have been acquired by the French National Landslide Observatory (OMIV), and are available at doi.org/10.15778/RESIF.FR and doi.org/10.15778/RESIF.MT

We acknowledge help from the ISTerre-SIG team for operating the seismic network. We acknowledge the support of the European Research Council (ERC) under the grant agreement no. 101142154 (Crack The Rock).

How to cite: Wienk, I., Guillemot, A., Béjean-Maillard, O., Radiguet, M., and Larose, E.: Seismic Velocity Variations as Indicators of Hydromechanical Processes in the Séchilienne Landslide (France), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14765, 2026.

EGU26-14801 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.2

Geophysical monitoring of soil moisture response to re-establishing river flow in an Agricultural setting 

Jennifer Jenkins, Josefina Maceiro, Sebastian Uhlemann, Catherine Hirst, Kevin Davidson, Karen Lythgoe, and James Hammond

We present initial results from a three-month-long geophysical monitoring campaign in an agricultural setting in Cumbria, NW England, aimed at assessing subsurface moisture response to the re-establishment of river flow.

Over the last five years the study area experienced persistent flooding and associated soil degradation, caused by a blocked outflow channel of the River Winster where it flows into Morecambe Bay. In September 2025, the river channel was cleared with the aim of re-establishing flow and reducing future flood events. To assess the impact of this intervention in the subsurface, seismic and electrical geophysical monitoring across four agricultural fields was carried out, spanning two weeks prior to 2.5 months post re-establishment of river flow.

This known hydrological change to the system provided a unique opportunity to explore the effectiveness of high-frequency ambient noise seismic interferometry at measuring changes in soil moisture content. A total of 180 seismic nodes were deployed in densely spaced (5 - 20 m) grids, across four fields with variable soil type and at varying distance along the river course. The project aimed to explore: 1) optimal network configurations, 2) consistency of a previously observed 50 Hz noise source thought to be generated by the national electrical grid, and 3) the effectiveness of the technique in various soil types.

Seismic results are compared to time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) profiles repeated at monthly intervals, and bench-marked against continuous soil temperature data, water-table loggers, precipitation, river-level and tidal data, and point measurements of soil moisture content.  

How to cite: Jenkins, J., Maceiro, J., Uhlemann, S., Hirst, C., Davidson, K., Lythgoe, K., and Hammond, J.: Geophysical monitoring of soil moisture response to re-establishing river flow in an Agricultural setting, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14801, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14801, 2026.

EGU26-16901 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.2

Stress-velocity relationship for hydro-seismological monitoring 

Eldert Fokker, Elmer Ruigrok, and Jeannot Trampert

Recent advances in hydro-seismology demonstrate that seismic velocity variations provide a sensitive probe of near-surface hydrological processes. Building on earlier physics-based formulations for stress-induced seismic velocity changes, we present a reasonable approximation that recasts these relationships in terms of the ratio μ′/μ, where μ is the shear modulus and μ′ its pressure derivative. This formulation highlights that explicit knowledge of μ′ is not required to obtain physically meaningful predictions of stress-driven seismic velocity variations. Instead, by combining basic geomechanical assumptions with plausible subsurface models for vp, vs, and density, μ′/μ can be approximated sufficiently well to enable robust forward modelling.

We show that this approximation unifies previous empirical observations of groundwater-related velocity changes by linking pore-pressure perturbations directly to effective-stress variations and their impact on elastic moduli. The updated framework allows hydro-seismological analyses to be performed in settings where detailed rock-physics constraints are unavailable, broadening its applicability from well-instrumented regions to sparse networks and shallow environmental studies.

This physics-based approach strengthens the foundation for using ambient noise monitoring, coda-wave interferometry, and surface-wave dispersion to track groundwater dynamics and (effective) stress transients. By reducing the dependency on poorly constrained elastic derivatives, the method supports more transferable hydro-seismological monitoring strategies and provides a pathway for integrating seismic observations with hydrological models.

How to cite: Fokker, E., Ruigrok, E., and Trampert, J.: Stress-velocity relationship for hydro-seismological monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16901, 2026.

EGU26-17378 | Posters on site | SM5.2

Seasonal variations in crustal surface wave attenuation 

Laura Ermert, Lapo Boschi, and Anne Obermann

Attenuation of seismic waves describes the loss of energy as waves travel through the medium. It is among others sensitive to fluids, making it a potentially important complementary observation in ambient noise monitoring. While seismic attenuation imaging with ambient noise yields convincing results at regional scale, time-dependent measurements of attenuation at this scale remain challenging. One of the challenges is the variability of ocean microseism sources, that leads to a variability of noise energy and measured seismic velocity in short-duration observations.

In this contribution, we investigate changes in surface wave attenuation from ambient seismic noise recorded at the Swiss Digital Seismic Network. We observe seasonal variations in Rayleigh wave attenuation, with local averages matching previous time-independent studies. Following this finding, we pursue two goals: a) ensuring the robustness of the time-varying attenuation signal, and b) seeking an interpretation.

In the Alpine region, energy from the secondary microseism drops noticeably during summer. Together with the geographical change in source distribution, this leads to seasonal variations in phase velocity estimates, which we account for when measuring attenuation; however, it may also lead to apparent changes in attenuation itself provided that source changes are not affecting the seismic stations uniformly. Using numerical modeling and an extended attenuation measurement, we test whether source distribution changes alone can account for the observed behavior.

The observations show stronger attenuation in summer, than in winter. Given the relatively low frequency band targeted here, a shallow origin of the variations, such as ground temperature or soil moisture variations, does not seem plausible. If robustness can be confirmed, we will investigate the hypothesis of crustal attenuation changes due to seasonal loading by precipitation.

How to cite: Ermert, L., Boschi, L., and Obermann, A.: Seasonal variations in crustal surface wave attenuation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17378, 2026.

EGU26-17586 | Posters on site | SM5.2

Integrating hydro-seismology and electromagnetic methods for enhanced groundwater monitoring  

Stefan Carpentier, Eldert Fokker, and Hen Brett

Monitoring groundwater levels and soil moisture content (SMC) is essential yet challenging, especially across large areas due to the logistics of intense surveying and repeatability. Advances in hydroseismology and near surface geophysics offer new possibilities for resolving subsurface dynamics at useful scales in space and time. Seismic velocity variations, sensitive to pore pressure and saturation, enable passive or repeat monitoring of groundwater changes accross large acreages and with sufficient spatial resolution. Electromagnetic induction (EMI) provides rapid, high-resolution mapping of shallow electrical conductivity, serving as a strong proxy for SMC. Combining seismic and EMI data leverages the wide spatial coverage of seismic methods with the detailed, near surface sensitivity and calibration of EMI. This integrated approach improves our ability to track hydrological processes, supporting better groundwater management and drought assessment in regions such as the Netherlands.

How to cite: Carpentier, S., Fokker, E., and Brett, H.: Integrating hydro-seismology and electromagnetic methods for enhanced groundwater monitoring , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17586, 2026.

EGU26-17617 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.2

Ambient Field Analysis Using Unsupervised Machine Learning and Blind Source Separation for Groundwater Monitoring in California 

Reza Esfahani, Leonard Seydoux, Shujuan Mao, and Michel Campillo

The ambient seismic field comprises waves generated by a wide range of tectonic, environmental, and anthropogenic processes, and they also encode information about the subsurface medium through which the waves propagate. Over the past two decades, ambient-field-based techniques have emerged as a powerful approach for monitoring temporal changes in the Earth’s subsurface properties. These methods exploit the statistical characteristics of continuous seismic records to detect subtle perturbations in the medium without relying on earthquake sources. 

Recently, Steinmann et al. (2022) proposed an alternative approach for monitoring the freezing of near-surface material. This approach is based on a statistical blind source separation and an unsupervised machine learning framework applied to continuous seismic data. We apply this method to groundwater monitoring in California using single-station seismic recording. The approach aims to disentangle overlapping seismic signatures from different sources and physical processes to isolate components related to hydrological variations. We will evaluate the performance and robustness of this method and discuss its potential for improved monitoring of groundwater-driven changes in subsurface seismic properties. 

How to cite: Esfahani, R., Seydoux, L., Mao, S., and Campillo, M.: Ambient Field Analysis Using Unsupervised Machine Learning and Blind Source Separation for Groundwater Monitoring in California, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17617, 2026.

EGU26-18794 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.2

Contribution of Dense Seismic Arrays to the Characterization of Hydrological Dynamics in Karst Systems 

Mathieu Herbelot, Stéphane Garambois, Laurent Stehly, Christophe Voisin, Aurélie Boura, and Véronique Léonardi

A significant proportion of the world’s water resources is stored in karst regions. To develop water management strategies adapted to karst hydrosystems under conditions of global change, it is essential to consider the specific characteristics of these systems, from infiltration zones to discharge points. This requires an improved understanding of groundwater recharge, water storage within the karst reservoir, and the transfer of water toward outlets. However, the strong structural heterogeneity of karst systems poses significant challenges for imaging and monitoring groundwater flow processes. Among the well-established hydrological and geophysical methods used to study subsurface water dynamics, our project focuses on integrating innovative seismic monitoring techniques with interdisciplinary approaches within a multi-scale framework.

To address these challenges, our study investigates hydrological flows along preferential pathways within a karst environment that recharge the Lez aquifer, a critical groundwater resource supplying drinking water to approximately 340,000 inhabitants in Montpellier and its surrounding areas.

As part of the multidisciplinary PEPR OneWater K3 project, we conducted ambient seismic noise monitoring using a dense array of 100 velocimeters deployed over one month across a 200 m × 1 km area encompassing fault zones and highly localized karst features. These continuous data are used both for imaging, via seismic tomography, and for monitoring purposes. For the latter, the primary objective is to produce dynamic maps of seismic velocity variations derived from autocorrelations and cross-correlations between stations. These localized variations are then correlated with a significant rainfall event and hydrological observations. We specifically aim to derive the hydrological properties controlling a synthetic model capable of reproducing seismic velocity responses to temperature and rainfall variations, with a spatial resolution that highlights distinct geological compartments. In a second step, the seismic network is used to detect seismic noise generated by fluid transfers, particularly within the most permeable zones.

Furthermore, the deployment of broadband seismic stations over a two-year period is expected to provide valuable insights into the long-term dynamics and seasonal variability of the Lez aquifer at a larger scale.

How to cite: Herbelot, M., Garambois, S., Stehly, L., Voisin, C., Boura, A., and Léonardi, V.: Contribution of Dense Seismic Arrays to the Characterization of Hydrological Dynamics in Karst Systems, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18794, 2026.

EGU26-18994 | Posters on site | SM5.2

Train-induced seismic interferometry for monitoring pore-water pressure changes along railway embankments 

Edwin Obando Hernandez, Eldert Fokker, Jeannot Trampert, and Brenda Buskes

This study investigates the feasibility of using train-induced seismic interferometry to monitor shallow subsurface pore-water pressure (PWP) variations of shallow soft soil conditions alongside railways embankments. The research was conducted at a dedicated test site equipped with an array of pore-water pressure transducers and a pair of tri-axial accelerometers, enabling simultaneous monitoring. The triaxial accelerometers and pore-water pressure transducers were installed at two locations, close to each other, along the railways to capture the effects of passing trains on the shallow subsurface. The accelerometers, placed at a depth of 3.6 meters, were used to monitor ground vibrations, specifically the propagation of Rayleigh waves in the 1–30 Hz frequency range. The pore-water pressure transducers were positioned at multiple depths between 2 and 7 meters, with approximately 1-meter intervals between them. These transducers recorded pore-water pressure (PWP) values every hour at each specific depth.

The methodology employs seismic interferometry to extract surface waves from ambient vibrations induced by passing trains. These velocity variations are then correlated with modeled PWP changes at different depths. The results demonstrate promising correlations between measured and modeled PWP, particularly at sensitive depths where soil behavior is most critical for infrastructure stability. While the approach successfully captures general trends in PWP dynamics, discrepancies in prediction accuracy were observed, primarily due to limitations in model parameterization, frequency band selection, and data resolution.

The findings highlight the potential of seismic interferometry as a non-invasive, scalable technique for geotechnical monitoring. However, improvements in several areas are recommended to enhance reliability. Refining model parameters to better represent site-specific soil properties, optimizing frequency selection to target depth-sensitive wave modes, and increasing temporal and spatial resolution of seismic data could significantly improve predictive performance.

Furthermore, integrating Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) technology offers an opportunity for real-time, large-scale monitoring by utilizing existing fiber-optic infrastructure. This integration could transform current practices by enabling continuous observation of soil-water interactions without the need for extensive sensor deployment.

This research demonstrates the viability of using train-induced seismic signals for monitoring subsurface hydromechanical processes, offering a practical alternative to conventional methods. By addressing current limitations and incorporating emerging technologies, the proposed framework has the potential to advance infrastructure monitoring, mitigate geotechnical risks, and support sustainable development in areas with challenging soil conditions.

How to cite: Obando Hernandez, E., Fokker, E., Trampert, J., and Buskes, B.: Train-induced seismic interferometry for monitoring pore-water pressure changes along railway embankments, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18994, 2026.

EGU26-19372 | ECS | Posters on site | SM5.2

Monitoring Seismic Noise for Groundwater Dynamics Using Machine Learning  

Karina Loviknes, John M. Aiken, Shujuan Mao, Akhilesh Nair, Lena M. Tallaksen, Björn Lund, and Francois Renard

Climate change has led to more frequent and widespread droughts motivating robust monitoring of groundwater resources. Ambient seismic noise interferometry allows to derive relative seismic velocity changes (Δv/v) over time and space in the subsurface. Δv/v correlates well with groundwater fluctuations. Traditional datasets used to monitor groundwater changes, such as groundwater level data from wells and GRACE satellite gravimetric data, are either spatially sparse or limited in spatial resolution. Seismic velocity changes offer an additional, high-resolution measure of groundwater changes. Here, we aim to enhance groundwater monitoring in central Scandinavia, which experienced severe droughts in 2018 and 2022, and increase understanding on how groundwater levels decrease during droughts and recharge during periods of higher precipitations. One challenge of the ambient seismic noise interferometry method is the assumption of uniform noise sources, which rarely applies to seismic stations in Norway and Sweden. In this study, we test several denoising and spatial inversion robustness methods, including denoising autoencoders, convolutional neural networks, and variational inference. Through the integration of seismic and hydrological data, complex signal enhancement, and probabilistic inversion, we develop a robust method for monitoring groundwater in areas with heterogeneous station spacing and non-uniform noise sources. 

How to cite: Loviknes, K., Aiken, J. M., Mao, S., Nair, A., Tallaksen, L. M., Lund, B., and Renard, F.: Monitoring Seismic Noise for Groundwater Dynamics Using Machine Learning , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19372, 2026.

EGU26-22344 | Posters on site | SM5.2

Exploring river dynamics through passive seismology: preliminary insights into flow and sediment transport in northern Spain 

María Elena Fernandez-Iglesias, Laro Incera, Gil González-Rodríguez, Daniel Vázquez-Tarrío, María Fernández-García, Rosana Menéndez-Duarte, Javier Álvarez Pulgar, Juan González-Cortina, David Pedreira, and Alba Díaz-González

We present preliminary observations from a passive seismic monitoring programme developed within the framework of the CANALAB project, applied to fluvial systems in northern Spain. The study is based on continuous recordings in the lower Nalón River since March 2022 and, since 2025, in a headwater catchment of the Nalón basin (Aller River). Seismic stations installed close to the active channel are used to explore how ground vibrations respond to changes in river dynamics. One year of data from the Nalón site was analysed using a General Additive Model (GAM) that integrates seismic amplitude with river discharge, wind speed and a day–night component related to anthropogenic noise.

Preliminary GAM outputs indicate that river discharge explains about 92% of the variability of the seismic signal, while wind and the systemic day–night component together account for less than 2%. During the flood events of March and April 2022 and January 2023, seismic energy increased markedly between 5 and 40 Hz, which is in agreement with peak discharges and with surrogate indicators of sediment transport derived from impact plates installed on the riverbed. When only low-flow periods without detected bedload transport are considered, seismic amplitude follows an almost linear relationship with discharge, whereas during floods an excess signal appears relative to the GAM prediction, which is interpreted as being potentially related to coarse bedload transport. The new installation in 2025 in the Aller headwaters extends this framework to upstream conditions and will allow comparison between lowland and headwater responses. These observations support the potential of passive seismology as a non-invasive and continuous tool to monitor both liquid discharge and sediment dynamics, complementing conventional methods.

How to cite: Fernandez-Iglesias, M. E., Incera, L., González-Rodríguez, G., Vázquez-Tarrío, D., Fernández-García, M., Menéndez-Duarte, R., Pulgar, J. Á., González-Cortina, J., Pedreira, D., and Díaz-González, A.: Exploring river dynamics through passive seismology: preliminary insights into flow and sediment transport in northern Spain, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22344, 2026.

SM6 – Seismic Imaging (from near-surface to global scale, incl. methodological developments)

EGU26-421 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.1

3D Crustal Density Distribution of Northeast India from Seismically-Constrained Gravity Inversion 

Priyank Pathak, Jörg Ebbing, Peter Haas, and William Kumar Mohanty

The Northeast India is a tectonically active region situated at the complex junction of the Indian, Eurasian, and Burmese plates. This area, encompassing the eastern Himalayas, the Indo-Burmese Ranges, the Shillong Plateau, the Assam Valley and Bengal Basin, exhibits a highly heterogeneous crustal structure and composition resulting from the continental collision and ongoing subduction of the Indian plate. The objective of this study is to present the first 3D crustal density model for northeast India, obtained through a novel tesseroid-based gravity inversion that accounts for the curvature of the Earth and utilises a Gauss-Newton optimization scheme. This framework is initialised and constrained by a local seismic tomography-based 3D reference density model. The inversion employs a tesseroid mesh parameterisation, in which each density contrast of the tesseroid is solved to minimise a composite objective function that balances data misfit, depth-weighted regularization, and 3D smoothness relative to the seismic reference model. The inversion utilizes the filtered residual gravity anomaly, derived by systematically removing the upper-mantle gravitational effects from the observed Bouguer anomaly and isolating the crustal signal using third-order regional-residual separation, enabling stable recovery of short-wavelength density contrasts.
The resulting 3D crustal density structure reveals: (i) High-density material within the upper crust (~10 km) and the lower crust of the Shillong Plateau indicates the presence of basic intrusions, while the uplifted structural configuration suggests a rigid Archean-Proterozoic basement of the Shillong Plateau exhumed through pop-up tectonics. (ii) Thickened, low-density crust beneath the Eastern Himalaya and Indo-Burmese Ranges reflects ongoing Indian-plate underthrusting and subduction, supported by density gradients that dip north to ~25°N and east to ~93°E, imaging the progressive burial of the Indian crust beneath the Eastern Himalayan arc and Indo-Burmese Ranges, respectively. (iii) Pronounced low-density zones beneath the Indo-Burmese Ranges, indicative of crustal weakening and hydrated fabrics. (iv) Adjacent low-density anomalies within the upper crust of the Assam Valley and the Bengal Basin clearly image the sedimentary fill, while high density at ~25 km depth beneath the Bengal Basin is associated with the presence of oceanic crust (or continental to oceanic transition). These contrasting signatures collectively highlight strong vertical and lateral density variations across the region.
These first-order results provide new quantitative constraints on the crustal density characteristics of major tectonic features in Northeast India, significantly contributing to the understanding of the regional stress field and geodynamic setting of this seismically active region.

How to cite: Pathak, P., Ebbing, J., Haas, P., and Mohanty, W. K.: 3D Crustal Density Distribution of Northeast India from Seismically-Constrained Gravity Inversion, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-421, 2026.

EGU26-769 | ECS | Orals | SM6.1

Crustal imaging of the seismic velocity structure in the Emilia region 

Majed Abyat, Debora Presti, Barbara Orecchio, Silvia Scolaro, and Cristina Totaro

The 2012 Emilia seismic sequence in the central sector of the Ferrara arc included the 20 May (Mw 6.1) and 29 May 2012 (Mw 6.0) mainshocks, followed by thousands of aftershocks, and ruptured thrust faults belonging to the Ferrara and Mirandola systems buried beneath the Po Plain (Carannante et al., 2015). Several studies have demonstrated the exceptional value of this sequence for crustal imaging: refined aftershock relocations highlighted the activation of adjacent blind thrusts and the structural complexity of the Apennines frontal belt (Govoni et al., 2014), while additional analyses revealed significant lateral heterogeneity along the Ferrara arc (Chiarabba et al., 2014). The dense permanent/temporary network deployed during the crisis produced one of the most complete seismic datasets for northern Italy.

Within this framework, we construct a new three-dimensional a-priori P-wave velocity model for the Emilia–Romagna region, spanning 10–13°E and 44–46°N and parametrised on a 15-km horizontal grid with 3-km vertical spacing. The workflow follows a multi-dataset integration strategy, in which velocity–depth functions are extracted at each node of a horizontal grid and lateral continuity is ensured through spatial smoothing. The model assimilates multiple complementary datasets: Vp control points from the 3-D Po Basin model of Molinari et al. (2015), regional geological cross-sections from the ER3D model (Klin et al., 2019) used as qualitative constraints on basin and thrust geometry, crustal and lithospheric information from published tomographic models (Di Stefano et al., 2011; De Gori et al., 2014) together with the recent adjoint tomography model of the Italian lithosphere (Im25; Magnoni et al., 2022), and structural and seismogenic constraints derived from analyses of the 2012 sequence (Govoni et al., 2014). This multi-source integration produces a geologically coherent three-dimensional starting model that better represents the strong lateral variations of the Po Plain than conventional one-dimensional or poorly constrained three-dimensional initial models.

The resulting model (the a-priori model) is employed as the initial structure for 3-D travel-time tomography, implemented through an iterative inversion approach adapted to the characteristics of the Emilia region. High-quality P- and S-wave arrival times recorded by the seismic network operating during the 2012 sequence offer favourable ray coverage especially in the upper and middle crust. This helps mitigate typical limitations introduced by sharp lateral velocity contrasts and irregular station spacing, improving the reliability and resolution of the final tomographic images.

This work contributes to refine seismic imaging and hazard assessment in the Po Plain. By demonstrating the advantages of constructing a detailed a-priori velocity model in a structurally complex region, it highlights the importance of integrating multiple geophysical datasets to obtain a stable foundation for tomographic inversion. A refined starting model enhances the ability to resolve lateral heterogeneities within the sedimentary basin and better define the geometry of deep thrust systems. The resulting framework supports future investigations of ground-motion amplification, fault interaction and crustal structure along the Apennines front in one of the most industrialised and densely populated regions of northern Italy.

How to cite: Abyat, M., Presti, D., Orecchio, B., Scolaro, S., and Totaro, C.: Crustal imaging of the seismic velocity structure in the Emilia region, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-769, 2026.

EGU26-829 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.1

Geoelectric Architecture of Eastern Ladakh: New Insights from Magnetotelluric Imaging Across the Trans-Himalayan Suture System 

Akashdeep Barman, Pavankumar Gayatri, Ajay Manglik, Demudu Babu Molli, Raj Sunil Kandregula, and Chakravarthi N Narasimha

The eastern Ladakh region, forming a key segment of the Trans-Himalaya, preserves the tectonic archive of the India–Eurasia collision that led to the closure of the Tethys Ocean, subduction of the Indian lithosphere, and subsequent growth of the Himalayan orogen. Despite its tectonic relevance and geothermal potential, the crustal geophysical framework of this region has remained poorly constrained. To fill this gap, we conducted detailed magnetotelluric (MT) investigations along two strategically positioned profiles: Ukdungle–Hanle–Koyul and the Tso Moriri–Pangong corridor, covering the major suture zones and associated lithotectonic units. Results from the Ukdungle–Hanle–Koyul profile delineate a steeply dipping Indus Suture Zone (ISZ), an 8–10 km thick Ladakh batholith, and a prominent ~6 km-wide conductive body at ~4 km depth beneath the Tso Moriri Crystalline (TMC) complex, with an upward extension along the ISZ. Three-dimensional modelling further reveals that these shallow conductors merge downward into a laterally extensive deep conductive zone interpreted as partial melt underlying southern Tibet and extending into eastern Ladakh. The second MT profile from the TMC complex toward the Pangong metamorphics highlights additional crustal transitions, including the shift from highly resistive Indian crust to moderately resistive crust across the ISZ, the deeper root of the Ladakh batholith at ~18–20 km, and a major 20–25 km deep conductor beneath the Shyok Suture Zone (SSZ), interpreted as a fossil magma chamber. A systematic geoelectric-strike rotation from NW–SE to E–W northward reflects the transition from Himalayan tectonics to the plateau-dominated regime of western Tibet. Together, the profiles also indicate an eastward thinning of the Ladakh batholith, refining the regional crustal architecture.
Keywords: Trans Himalaya, Tso Moriri Crystalline (TMC), Pangong metamorphics, Ladakh Batholith

How to cite: Barman, A., Gayatri, P., Manglik, A., Molli, D. B., Kandregula, R. S., and Narasimha, C. N.: Geoelectric Architecture of Eastern Ladakh: New Insights from Magnetotelluric Imaging Across the Trans-Himalayan Suture System, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-829, 2026.

EGU26-1378 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.1

 Crustal Structure Beneath the Carpathian–Pannonian Region Using Ambient Noise Tomography 

Hari Ram Thapa, Gordana Vlahovic, Shiba Subedi, and Lok Bijay Adhikari

The Carpathian–Pannonian Region (CPR) is one of the most seismically active areas in Central Europe, as evidenced by destructive events such as the Mw 7.7 Vrancea earthquake of 1940. Understanding the crustal structure beneath the CPR is essential for understanding earthquake processes, improving high-resolution earthquake location, and mitigating seismic hazard. In this study, we present a 3-D S-wave velocity model of the CPR obtained by jointly inverting group and phase velocity dispersion data using a trans-dimensional Bayesian approach. This method provides a more robust, well-resolved crustal and uppermost-mantle structure than previous studies relying solely on group-velocity inversion. Our results show low velocities at 5–10 km depth beneath the Pannonian Basin, and elevated velocities at ~30 km depth beneath the Great Hungarian Plain, while surrounding mountain regions exhibit relatively low velocities at ~40 km depth. Velocities become nearly uniform by a depth of 50 km. Cross-sections reveal a pronounced upper-crustal low-velocity zone beneath the basin and a mid-crustal low-velocity layer at ~20 km depth along the Tisza–Dacia profile, producing a layered geometry resembling the “crocodile” pattern reported in other tectonically complex regions. Importantly, the Moho is expressed at different S-wave velocity levels across the CPR: the 3.8 km/s isoline is close to the Moho beneath the basin, whereas the 4.2 km/s isoline better represents the deeper Moho beneath the surrounding mountains reported by previous studies (Thapa & Vlahovic, 2025). Identifying the Moho using region-appropriate Vs iso-velocity values highlights how variations in crustal composition and thermal structure influence the Moho’s seismic velocity signature. Our study provides a refined crustal framework of the CPR, providing critical constraints for understanding its tectonic evolution and improving regional seismic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Thapa, H. R., Vlahovic, G., Subedi, S., and Adhikari, L. B.:  Crustal Structure Beneath the Carpathian–Pannonian Region Using Ambient Noise Tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1378, 2026.

EGU26-2362 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.1

S-wave velocity and radial anisotropy structure of the Southern Italy from probabilistic tomography inversion 

Titouan Muzellec, Clément Estève, Richard Kramer, and Götz Bokelmann

Southern Italy is a tectonically active region presenting a high seismic risk. The convergence between the African and European plates has produced intense crustal deformation, widespread active faulting zones, and a highly complex tectonic architecture. Developing 3-D seismic tomography models in such a setting is essential for improving our understanding of the crustal heterogeneity and its impact on seismic hazard. Here we measure the dispersion properties of cross-correlation functions obtained from ambient noise interferometry for 69 broadband stations for the period between 2020 to 2024. To improve the azimuthal coverage and address data gaps, we extract group velocities of surface waves from 28 regional earthquakes (M>5). We jointly invert the earthquake and ambient noise dispersion data to obtain Rayleigh and Love wave group velocity maps at periods ranging from 5 to 23 s in a probabilistic framework. We then perform 1-D depth inversions of both surface wave types to retrieve depth-dependent isotropic Voigt velocity (VVoigt) and radial anisotropy models. The resulting surface-wave group velocity distributions, together with the 3D VVoigt and shear-wave radial anisotropy models, reveal pronounced seismic signatures associated with the Lagonegro Basin unit, located between the Apennine chain and the Apulian carbonate platforms. These findings provide new constraints on the crustal structure of Southern Italy and contribute to a more refined understanding of its tectonic and seismic behavior.

How to cite: Muzellec, T., Estève, C., Kramer, R., and Bokelmann, G.: S-wave velocity and radial anisotropy structure of the Southern Italy from probabilistic tomography inversion, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2362, 2026.

EGU26-3535 | Orals | SM6.1

The Lithosphere of the Mackenzie Mountains in northwest Canada 

Derek Schutt, Aziz Bankher, Sherif Sanusi, Naeim Mousavi, Clément Estève, Christian Schiffer, Javier Fullea, and Pascal Audet

The Mackenzie Mountains are an enigmatic mountain range in northwestern Canada.  Earthquake focal mechanisms show the mountain range is actively building, even though it is 700 km from the nearest plate boundary, and there is little deformation closer to the plate boundary.  In this study, we present new results from the region, including joint local, Pn and teleseismic P tomography, crustal thickness from the Virtual Deep Seismic Sounding method and joint ambient noise/receiver function inversion, and temperatures inferred from earthquake-based and ambient noise-based Rayleigh wave phase velocities.  We find a thin lithosphere under the Mackenzies surrounded by a thick lithosphere, suggesting that mantle viscosity variations are contributing to the ongoing deformation.  However, we also find only a small increase in crustal thickness in the area which suggests the Mackenzies have not experienced significant contraction, despite several instances of uplift since about 100 Ma.  Velocity structure shows a plume-like low velocity structure ascending under the central Mackenzies.  The nature of the plume remains a mystery, as it is continuous from the mantle into the crust, but there is no evidence of magmatism at the surface.   It may be fluids, magma that hasn’t reached the surface, or a sub-solidus thermal anomaly. 

How to cite: Schutt, D., Bankher, A., Sanusi, S., Mousavi, N., Estève, C., Schiffer, C., Fullea, J., and Audet, P.: The Lithosphere of the Mackenzie Mountains in northwest Canada, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3535, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3535, 2026.

Gangwon Province exhibits strong topographic relief and significant variations in Moho depth, necessitating the use of a 3D reference model for reliable crustal velocity imaging. To construct this model, we incorporated ETOPO1 topography, Moho depth estimates from receiver functions, and near-surface sedimentary layers constrained by P-wave polarization angle inversion essential for improved fitting of short-period dispersion curves. Rayleigh-wave phase and group velocities were measured from ambient-noise cross-correlation functions using data from 101 broadband seismometers and accelerometers for periods of 1–16 s. To extend sensitivity to deeper structures, we also included longer-period (10–40 s) Rayleigh-wave phase velocities derived from regional Helmholtz tomography. These three complementary datasets were jointly inverted to produce a high-resolution 3D S-wave crustal velocity model of Gangwon Province. The resulting model reveals pronounced low-velocity anomalies bounded by the Inje and Geumwang faults, suggesting the presence of compositional heterogeneity and mechanically weak zones. These results provide quantitative 3D constraints on major fault systems and crust–uppermost mantle structure in Gangwon Province.

How to cite: Kim, M., Chang, S.-J., Sohn, Y. J., and Kim, K.-H.: Joint Inversion of Rayleigh-Wave Phase/Group Velocities Using a 3D Reference Model for Crustal Velocity Structure of Gangwon Province in the Korean Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4724, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4724, 2026.

We present a joint full-waveform inversion (FWI) method that integrates ambient noise, teleseismic, and local earthquake data to image lithospheric structure. Synthetic experiments demonstrate that the joint inversion outperforms inversions using individual data types by leveraging the complementary sensitivities of surface waves, body waves and scattering waves, yielding a more coherent and internally consistent multiparameter lithospheric model that includes compressional-wave velocity (Vp), shear-wave velocity (Vs), and density.

We apply the joint inversion method to investigate the lithospheric structure beneath central California, producing a new three-dimensional shear-wave velocity (Vs) model that reaches a depth of 200 km. Our final model delineates a sharp crustal interface between the Great Valley (GV) and the western Sierra Nevada Batholith (SNB), and clearly images the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB) beneath the western coast. These large-scale structural features are in good agreement with recent receiver function and traveltime tomography studies, while our model further resolves small-scale heterogeneities that were poorly constrained in previous single-datatype inversions.

How to cite: Luo, Z. and Wang, K.: Joint Full-Waveform Inversion of Ambient Noise, Teleseismic, and Local Earthquake Data to image the Lithospheric Structure Beneath Central California, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6056, 2026.

Receiver functions derived from teleseismic events are sensitive to subsurface structural effects beneath a seismic station and are therefore useful for estimating crustal thickness. More than 300 seismometers have been installed on the Korean Peninsula since the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake (ML 5.8), the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the region. This monitoring environment is suitable for obtaining high-resolution estimates of Moho depth and Vp/Vs ratios, considering the spatial resolution of receiver function analysis. Receiver functions were computed from 2,361 teleseismic events (Mw 5.5–7.0; epicentral distances of 30°–90°) recorded between January 2003 and January 2024. Azimuthal corrections were applied to the receiver functions by searching for the direction that minimizes energy on the transverse component. For specific stations, temporal variations in the azimuth angle were observed. Consequently, a moving-average technique was applied, and only periods with stable azimuth angles were used for the analysis. Subsequently, the Moho depth and Vp/Vs ratio were determined at the location of the maximum stacking amplitude in the H–κ domain. For stations exhibiting double peaks in the H–κ domain, normalized receiver functions were clustered based on the sum of Euclidean distances, and the H–κ analysis was repeated. The derived Moho depths indicate that crustal thickness is thinnest (~30 km) beneath the Gyeonggi Massif and thickest (~34 km) beneath the Yeongnam Massif. In the eastern Korean Peninsula, the observed crustal thickness is inconsistent with isostatic equilibrium, suggesting the influence of dynamic-topography-related downwelling. A Moho depth exceeding 34 km is also observed in the southwestern Okcheon Belt. The Gyeonggi Massif shows the lowest Vp/Vs ratio (1.72), whereas higher values (>1.78) occur in the eastern Gyeongsang Basin and the northeastern Gyeonggi Massif. High Vp/Vs ratios are interpreted to be related to the emplacement of Cretaceous Bulguksa granites.

How to cite: Lee, D. and Kim, S.: Estimation of the high-resolution Moho discontinuity beneath the Korean peninsula by receiver function analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6423, 2026.

EGU26-6605 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.1

Crustal Structure of the Intra-cratonic Chhattisgarh Basin and the Adjacent Eastern Ghats Mobile Belt, East-Central India 

Miss Maitreyi, Arun Singh, and Chandrani Singh

The Chhattisgarh Basin in central India is one of the largest Meso-Neoproterozoic intra-cratonic Purana basins. This basin has long been the subject of debate concerning its origin and tectonic evolution. Although its geological and depositional framework are relatively well constrained, the deep crustal architecture and present-day tectonic setting remain less understood. In this study, we employ broadband seismic data from a temporary network of 30 seismic stations deployed across Chhattisgarh Basin and the adjoining Eastern Ghats Mobile Belt (EGMB) to investigate the crustal structure beneath the Chhattisgarh Basin, adjoining Gondwana sediments, the Bastar Craton and the EGMB. Receiver function analysis yields several key observations such as (a) a thin, sharp and nearly flat Moho beneath the Chhattisgarh Basin and Bastar Craton, with an average depth of ~ 37 km and clear multiples, indicating a relatively undisturbed crustal fabric; (b) seismic images beneath the Chhattisgarh Basin do not support models of intra-cratonic rifting or foreland basin development, but instead suggest that sedimentation was possibly due to sea-level fluctuations and the progressive infilling of localized topographic depressions within the Bastar Craton; (c) the Central Indian Shear (CIS) exerts a strong influence on Moho geometry, expressed as a gentle northward dip into the Archean craton segment across the basin–craton boundary, and slightly reduced average shear-wave velocities within the basin; (d) a gradational Moho is detected beneath Gondwana sediments along the north-eastern fringe of the basin; and (e) beneath the EGMB, pronounced Moho offsets of up to ~ 5 km and an eastward dipping gradational Moho delineate significant crustal heterogeneity and bear signatures of an ancient subduction system. These findings provide new constraints on the crustal architecture of the Chhattisgarh Basin and its adjoining tectonic domains, offering valuable insights into the geodynamic processes that shaped central India’s intra-cratonic basins.

How to cite: Maitreyi, M., Singh, A., and Singh, C.: Crustal Structure of the Intra-cratonic Chhattisgarh Basin and the Adjacent Eastern Ghats Mobile Belt, East-Central India, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6605, 2026.

EGU26-9653 * | Orals | SM6.1 | Highlight

GUESS: a 3D crustal model of Central Italy for geoneutrino physics 

Virginia Strati, Lorenzo Rossi, Alberta Albertella, Mauro Buttinelli, Martina Capponi, Paolo Conti, Andrea Ermini, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Roberta Maffucci, Fabio Mantovani, Luca Pagano, Sabah Ramouz, Kassandra Giulia Cristina Raptis, Mirko Reguzzoni, Riccardo Salvini, Daniele Sampietro, Pegah Solemani Dinani, and Mara Monica Tiberti

Geoneutrinos, electron antineutrinos produced by the radioactive decay of Uranium (U) and Thorium (Th), offer a unique real-time window into the Earth’s interior composition and radiogenic heat budget. These particles are detected by large-volume underground scintillators where cosmic ray backgrounds are minimized. However, the lack of directional sensitivity in current liquid scintillator detectors, such as Borexino (Gran Sasso massif, Italy), results in a signal degeneracy that necessitates highly accurate models of the local lithosphere to isolate the mantle contribution.

In the framework of the GUESS project (GeoneUtrinos: mESSengers of the Earth's interior), we present a high-resolution 3D geophysical model of Central Italy specifically tailored for geoneutrino signal prediction. Addressing the limitations of previous models, this work adopts a joint multi-disciplinary approach.

The "GUESS model" is computed inverting ground gravity data integrating heterogeneous datasets as prior information in a Bayesian framework. The geological and geophysical prior datasets include: 1D stratigraphic data from deep exploration wells; 2D interpreted seismic profiles and geological cross-sections; 3D passive seismic data (receiver functions) to constrain the Moho discontinuity. This probabilistic framework discretizes the crust into six lithological units, from Quaternary volcanics to the Lower Crust, and explores high-dimensional solution spaces in terms of both geometry and density distribution via simulated annealing. This methodology not only optimizes mass and volume estimates according to both gravity and geophysical data but also provides a quantification of estimation uncertainties by Monte Carlo samples. This workflow demonstrates how the integration of potential field data with seismic and geological constraints provides a robust, geodynamically realistic architecture, advancing both neutrino geoscience and our understanding of complex lithospheric structures.


This study was supported by the project GUESS (GeoneUtrinos: mESSengers of the Earth's interior) funded by European Union – NextGenerationEU, Missione 4, Componente 1(CUP: F53D23001280006).

How to cite: Strati, V., Rossi, L., Albertella, A., Buttinelli, M., Capponi, M., Conti, P., Ermini, A., Maesano, F. E., Maffucci, R., Mantovani, F., Pagano, L., Ramouz, S., Raptis, K. G. C., Reguzzoni, M., Salvini, R., Sampietro, D., Solemani Dinani, P., and Tiberti, M. M.: GUESS: a 3D crustal model of Central Italy for geoneutrino physics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9653, 2026.

EGU26-10874 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.1

High Resolution Joint Inversion of the Greater Alpine Region using the AlpArray Seismic and Gravity Datasets 

Ariane Maharaj, György Hetényi, and Steven Roecker

The Alps is a complex and dynamic region and although it has been extensively studied and has provided crucial information in understanding orogenic processes, there is still much that is continually debated in this region, such as the interactions and variations between crustal and mantle processes and structures. The AlpArray seismic network was deployed with the intention of providing a dataset that could help resolve some of these debates. It is made up of 628 stations (352 permanent and 276 temporary) deployed across 11 countries covering the greater Alpine region. The density and spatial consistency of this network provides a unique opportunity to examine the seismicity in the Alps as well as to apply geophysical methods such as tomography to provide high resolution images of this area allowing for a better understanding of these crustal and mantle dynamics. Previous studies have used this rich dataset to implement these methods such as local earthquake tomography, ambient noise tomography and teleseismic tomography. However, none have jointly inverted local and teleseismic datasets with gravity, which is what we undertake with this research. We are in the process of creating an augmented catalogue of P and S wave arrivals using an automated algorithm called REST which has already been successfully used in another orogenic region, the Andes. This catalogue will be used in the joint inversion with previously compiled teleseismic and gravity datasets to give a comprehensive image of the subsurface structure down to mantle depths consistent with these 3 datasets.

How to cite: Maharaj, A., Hetényi, G., and Roecker, S.: High Resolution Joint Inversion of the Greater Alpine Region using the AlpArray Seismic and Gravity Datasets, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10874, 2026.

Joint gravity–seismic inversion is a strong approach for imaging crustal and lithospheric structure, yet its success  highly depends on the formulation of the gravimetric direct problem and the quality of input datasets. Here, we investigate how commonly used global and regional grids affect forward gravimetric modelling and the subsequent interpretation of crustal structure in complex tectonic environments.

Following the methodology of Uieda et al. (2017), we construct forward gravimetric models for the Moho depth, based on multiple datasets: SGG-UGM2 gravity measurements, CRUST1.0 crustal thickness models, GlobSed sediment grids, and Gebco bathymetry. We explore the effects of grid resolution, interpolation strategies, and reference model choices on the gravity response, highlighting their influence on the information available to joint inversion schemes.

Previous applications to passive margins provide an example for assessing robustness and sensitivity of the forward-modelling strategy. Extending the approach to a tectonically and magmatically complex region – Azores triple junction – demonstrates how variations in input datasets reveal lateral and vertical heterogeneities. Forward-model experiments indicate which features of the crust are robustly resolvable and how gravity inversion with a seismic constraint can illuminate the nature of the crust, including magmatic additions and crustal thickening.

Our results emphasize that careful selection and treatment of gravity and auxiliary datasets is crucial to maximize geological information from inversions. Explicit consideration of forward-model assumptions, grid effects, and seismic constraints enhances confidence in inferred lithospheric structures, providing a practical framework for integrating multidisciplinary geophysical data in tectonically complex regions.

In addition to regional-scale studies, this methodology can be applied in platform extension projects, providing a cost- and time-efficient preliminary assessment of extensive areas. By highlighting lateral and vertical heterogeneities and identifying zones where gravity responses are most sensitive to subsurface structure, forward-model experiments can guide the prioritization of future data acquisition. Such an approach allows for targeted deployment of more detailed seismic or geophysical surveys, reducing overall exploration effort while maximizing geological insight across large and complex tectonic domains.

How to cite: Gonçalves, S. and Roque, C.: Limitations of gravimetric forward modelling in gravity inversion with seismic constraint: lithospheric studies, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12140, 2026.

EGU26-15602 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.1

Fluids Involved in the Occurrence of the 1975 Ms 7.3 Haicheng Earthquake Evidenced From Seismic Velocity Anomalies 

Junjie Hao, Haijiang Zhang, Yuqi Huang, Liang Wang, and Max Moorkamp

The 1975 Ms 7.3 Haicheng earthquake in the Liaodong Peninsula is well-known worldwide to be the first successful short-term earthquake prediction. To understand the physical basis why this earthquake can be predicted and to elucidate the detailed seismogenic structure of the Haicheng earthquake, in this study we incorporate the variation of information constraints (VI) into body-wave travel-time tomography to determine high-resolution Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs models around mainshock and aftershocks. Compared to previous tomographic methods, the VI-based method can enhance the intrinsic correlation between Vp and Vp/Vs models, thus better resolving regional geological processes and lithological compositions.

We assembled seismic arrival times recorded by permanent and temporary seismic stations in the region. Our results reveal pronounced low-velocity and high Vp/Vs anomalies in the middle to lower crust beneath the seismogenic fault, indicating a mechanically weakened zone likely associated with fluids. Seismic velocities along the fault plane further show that the mainshock nucleated within a transitional zone between brittle, competent granitic rocks featured by low Vp/Vs values and adjacent fluid-rich domains associated with high Vp/Vs values. The spatial distribution of aftershocks along the seismogenic fault shows a strong correlation with zones of high Vp/Vs anomalies. We propose that deep-sourced fluids, most likely originating from the upper mantle upwelling, migrated upward along pre-existing lithospheric-scale fault systems. This progressive fluid infiltration reduced the effective normal stress and mechanically weakened the fault zone. Under sustained tectonic loading, stress became locally concentrated on the strong blocks in the fault plane until fluid overpressure acted as an efficient trigger for rupture initiation. Before the mainshock, the infiltration of fluids can induce intensive foreshocks, which were used as precursors for the prediction of the Haicheng earthquake.

This study highlights the coupled effects of stress evolution, fluid migration, and fault structure in controlling intraplate earthquake occurrence, providing new insights into the physical mechanisms governing seismic hazard in continental interiors.

How to cite: Hao, J., Zhang, H., Huang, Y., Wang, L., and Moorkamp, M.: Fluids Involved in the Occurrence of the 1975 Ms 7.3 Haicheng Earthquake Evidenced From Seismic Velocity Anomalies, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15602, 2026.

The Changbaishan volcanic field (CVF), situated in the southeastern Central Asian Orogenic Belt, hosts a Cenozoic volcanic group including Changbaishan, Longgang, and Jingpohu volcanoes which exhibit distinct activities and surface rock compositions. To understand factors controlling their different behaviors, it is important to conduct integrated analysis of lithospheric thermal, compositional, and rheological structures. Here, we employ a probabilistic joint inversion incorporating surface heat flow, topography, geoid heights and Rayleigh wave phase and group velocity dispersion data to construct the thermal, compositional, and rheological structures of the lithosphere beneath the CVF. Joint inversion results indicate that lithospheric thickness beneath Changbaishan and Longgang volcanoes (~55 km) is significantly thinner than that beneath Jingpohu volcano (~85 km). In addition, a pronounced ~200 km wide asthenospheric thermal anomaly exists beneath the Changbaishan volcano, while it is absent beneath Longgang and Jingpohu volcanoes. Crustal compositions beneath the Changbaishan volcano are dominated by felsic rocks, while they are restricted to the lower crust beneath Jingpohu. Rheological weakening (viscosity <10²¹ Pa·s) extends from the crust to the upper mantle beneath the Changbaishan volcano, whereas the Jingpohu volcano exhibits weak zones only in the lower crust. We propose that the Changbaishan volcano retains a multilevel magmatic system linking the asthenosphere to the shallow crust, sustaining its high activity and diverse eruptive rocks. In contrast, Longgang and Jingpohu volcanoes lack sustained mantle-crust connectivity, resulting in low activity and predominantly alkali basalt eruptions.

How to cite: Zhou, W. and Zhang, H.: Thermal, compositional, and rheological structures of the lithosphere beneath the Changbaishan volcanic field and their controls on volcanic activity, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15689, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15689, 2026.

EGU26-17405 | ECS | Orals | SM6.1

Impact of thermal property variability and structural layering in the lower crust on the continental geotherm and heat flow estimates 

Kim Lemke, György Hetényi, Zheng Luo, Klaus Holliger, and Stefan Schmalholz

The thermal structure of the lower continental crust (LCC) is poorly constrained due to the lack of sufficient data on thermal properties, such as thermal conductivity (TC) and radiogenic heat production (A). However, this is essential for modelling the continental geotherm and heat flow as well as associated temperature-dependent processes and properties. Therefore, the few existing models that calculate the geotherm beneath the upper crustal level simplify the natural variability of TC and A of the lower crust by using averages of only few lithologies or even for an entire crustal section. Notably, individual crustal sections are defined as single thick layers, sometimes tens of km thick, which mismatch the evidence regarding the structure of the LCC. This makes heat flow and temperature calculations prone to errors and may lead to inaccurate and/or biased estimates of absolute values. A recent comprehensive study on the thermal properties of lower crustal lithologies (Lemke et al., 2026), carried out as part of the ICDP-DIVE (Drilling the Ivrea-Verbano zonE) project (Greenwood et al., 2025), fills this data gap and enables us to assess the impact of the variability of thermal properties in the LCC on geothermal and heat flow estimates.

 

To this end, we set up a 1D steady-state heat flow model of the continental crust, which is divided into an upper crust with constant properties and a lower crust with variable properties. The thermal property structure for the LCC is randomly drawn from lithology-specific A and TCdistributions (Lemke et al., 2026). Similarly, the thicknesses of the individual layers (d) are also drawn from predefined statistical distributions. Based on the available evidence, these distributions are typically Gaussian for the thermal properties (A, TC) and hyperbolic for the layer thicknesses (d), but we also test uniform distributions for these parameters. To assess the influence of the variabilities of TC, A, and d, model types are defined, for which each individual parameter as well as the combined effects of all three parameters are assessed. We compute geotherms upwards and downwards, starting with basal and surface heat flow values, respectively.  We test various lower crustal compositions: an intermediate one based on project DIVE as well as mafic and felsic endmembers. By performing numerous realisations for each model setup, the variability, as quantified by two standard deviations of temperature and heat flow is assessed.

 

The results show that the variability of thermal properties and layer thicknesses has a significant impact on temperature and heat flow. TC variability has the greatest influence on temperature uncertainties, while A variability has the greatest influence on heat flow uncertainties. Thicker layers, and layers with more widely varying thicknesses cause increasing uncertainties. The uncertainties reach ~10% for the heat flow while the temperature uncertainties are comparable to common corrections e.g. related to paleoclimatic signals. The chemical composition of the LCC determines the absolute value of the geotherm, but there is no significant impact on temperature variability. This work thus provides the basis for assessing geotherm and heat flow uncertainties in future models.

How to cite: Lemke, K., Hetényi, G., Luo, Z., Holliger, K., and Schmalholz, S.: Impact of thermal property variability and structural layering in the lower crust on the continental geotherm and heat flow estimates, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17405, 2026.

EGU26-17527 | ECS | Orals | SM6.1

Lithospheric density and thermal structure of the Tibetan Plateau 

Jiakuan Wan and Zhicai Luo

We developed a density model of the lithosphere beneath the Tibet Plateau using the joint inversion of gravity and seismic surface wave data. Based on density and seismic velocity, we revealed the lithospheric thermal structure. Simulation tests show that the lateral resolution of the density model from the joint inversion is 1°, which is higher than that from surface wave inversion. The lithospheric temperature field from the joint inversion of density and seismic velocity shows an uncertainty of ~50°C beneath the Tibetan Plateau, which is much lower than that constrained by seismic velocity alone. Our density and thermal models show that: (1) The lower crust of the Tibetan Plateau has a low density and a high temperature, indicating crustal partial melting and crustal flow. (2) The lithosphere mantle beneath the plateau shows high density and high temperature, indicating partial melting and underplating of the upper mantle. (3) Low-density anomalies appear in the lithospheric mantle of the Bangonghu-Nujiang and Longmucuo-Shuanghu sutures, consistent with low Vs anomalies, possibly caused by the hydration of peridotite in the lithospheric mantle. (4) Low-density and low-temperature anomalies are found in the lithospheric mantle beneath the Yungui Plateau, the Sichuan Basin and the Ordos Block. These anomalies are consistent with the characteristics of cratonic lithospheric mantle. 

How to cite: Wan, J. and Luo, Z.: Lithospheric density and thermal structure of the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17527, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17527, 2026.

EGU26-19008 | Posters on site | SM6.1

Imaging of Serpentinites beneath the Münchberg Massif (Germany) using Joint Gravity and Magnetic Inversion 

Peter Klitzke, Mohamed Sobh, Antonia Ruppel, Meike Bagge, Nikola Koglin, Maximilian Hasch, Rodolfo Christiansen, Hamed Fazlikhani, Jan-Felix Goldmann, Ingo Heyde, and Alexander Löwer

Serpentinisation is a water–rock reaction in ultramafic lithologies that can generate natural hydrogen and strongly modifies rock density and magnetic susceptibility. Quantifying the spatial distribution of serpentinized bodies is therefore essential for assessing the subsurface potential of natural hydrogen systems.

The Münchberg Massif (northern Bavaria, Germany) is an exhumed stack of tectonic nappes of different metamorphic grades that hosts several outcropping serpentinite bodies. This provides a rare opportunity to study serpentinisation in a setting that is typically buried at considerable crustal depths. The serpentinites are mainly exposed in the southern and southeastern part of the massif and coincide with pronounced, high-amplitude magnetic anomalies attributed to elevated magnetite contents. Despite detailed petrological and geochemical studies, the structural continuation of these bodies toward the north and northwest beneath overlying nappes remains poorly constrained.

We address this problem through joint inversion of gravity and magnetic data, exploiting the characteristic properties of reduced bulk density and elevated magnetic susceptibility in serpentinized ultramafic rocks relative to the surrounding crystalline basement. We integrate newly acquired high-resolution airborne gravity and magnetic observations with vintage seismic reflection constraints and site-specific petrophysical measurements (density and magnetic susceptibility) conducted on samples collected from surface outcrops. We used topography-aware forward modelling and wavelet compression to efficiently handle dense airborne datasets. Geological and petrophysical information is incorporated through bound/interval constraints, while seismic reflectors provide structural guidance to steer the inversion toward geologically plausible geometries and reduce non-uniqueness.

Preliminary joint inversion results of serpentinites reproduce the observed magnetic anomaly patterns consistent with outcrop-based measurements. First joint gravity–magnetic models indicate that combining density and susceptibility constraints with structural guidance from vintage seismic reflection data improves the robustness of inferred serpentinite geometries compared to magnetic-only inversions, particularly with respect to thickness distribution and subsurface continuity beneath the massif.

The Münchberg Massif thus serves as a natural test site for developing and validating geophysical workflows to characterize potential natural hydrogen systems in settings where serpentinites are concealed beneath crystalline or sedimentary cover.

How to cite: Klitzke, P., Sobh, M., Ruppel, A., Bagge, M., Koglin, N., Hasch, M., Christiansen, R., Fazlikhani, H., Goldmann, J.-F., Heyde, I., and Löwer, A.: Imaging of Serpentinites beneath the Münchberg Massif (Germany) using Joint Gravity and Magnetic Inversion, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19008, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19008, 2026.

EGU26-19424 | ECS | Orals | SM6.1

Delhi-Haridwar Ridge – from Foreland Basin to the Himalayan – an insight through Passive and Active Seismic study 

Aakash Anand, Kethavath B. Naik, and Dibakar Ghosal

The convergence of Delhi-Haridwar Ridge (DHR) plays a vital role in understanding the Delhi-Rohtak seismicity and plate segmentation along the Himalaya. The study focuses three segments adjacent to: (i)  Indo-Tibetan Suture Zone (ITSZ), (ii) Mohand anticline, (iii) Rohtak in Haryana. Near ITSZ, we have estimated Lithospheric shear-wave velocity (Vs) structure by jointly inverting receiver function, computed using earthquake data from 30 stations of Y2 network, with high-resolution group velocity dispersion data computed using ambient noise and earthquake tomography. A profile along the DHR shows the presence of high velocity material (Vs ~3.6 km/s) at ~38 km depth, with relatively steeper Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), providing the preliminary impression of the remnants of the ridge. Downwrapping of Moho along the eastern margin of DHR provides insights on the possible segmentation in the region. For Mohand anticline, we recorded seismic ambient noise using a three-component portable seismograph (Tromino) with a natural frequency of 0.1 Hz. We conduct an HVSR (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio) study on the recorded data using the Nakamura Method, a technique for estimating the resonance frequency and site amplification caused by different stratigraphic units underlain by the top of the bedrock. Using nine measuring points, variable resonance frequency has been identified in the range of 0.42 to 4.8 Hz, which indicates this region is prone to site amplification as overlain by Doon fan deposits. We further invert the P-velocity (Vp), S-velocity (Vs), and density (ρ) by using Monte Carlo inversion method and identify three different stratigraphic units. The top has a thickness of 3 m with a mean Vs, Vp, and ρ of 218 m/s, 385 m/s, and 1.17 g/cm3, respectively. The second layer has a thickness of 6 m with a mean Vs, Vp, and ρ of 406 m/s, 725 m/s, and 1.7 g/cm3, respectively. The bedrock depth in this region is 127 m with a mean Vs, Vp, and ρ of 582 m/s, 1238 m/s, and 1.8 g/cm3, respectively. Further south in the Rohtak region, we have conducted an active seismic study along five profiles over the DHR with a cumulative length of ~34 km. We have applied the conventional seismic processing techniques to produce the migrated image, in which we observe the presence of structural discontinuities associated with the buried faults. The findings from this study will be essential for seismic hazard assessment and able to explain the seismicity observed in the Delhi-Rohtak region.

How to cite: Anand, A., B. Naik, K., and Ghosal, D.: Delhi-Haridwar Ridge – from Foreland Basin to the Himalayan – an insight through Passive and Active Seismic study, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19424, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19424, 2026.

EGU26-21032 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.1

Sub-Basaltic Sediment Imaging with Teleseismic Earthquakes using a Transdimensional Bayesian Approach 

A Manikho Rajina and Satish Maurya

The thick Deccan Traps in the Saurashtra Peninsula pose significant challenges for sub-basaltic sediment imaging using conventional seismic methods. To offer a reliable alternative, we employed a transdimensional Bayesian joint inversion of teleseismic P-wave polarizations and receiver functions. Using Bayesian inversion, which offers greater flexibility in incorporating data variance into the objective function due to its probabilistic framework, we obtain 1-D velocity models beneath five broadband stations. The resulting 1-D shear-wave velocity models indicate sub-basaltic sediment thicknesses of ~1.3 km at KHER, 1.6 km at MANK, and 1.4 km at TANA, overlain by high-velocity shear-wave layers (Vs ~2.8–3.0 km/s) with thicknesses of ~0.7–0.9 km. In contrast, no evidence of sub-basaltic sediments was observed at SONT and MORK. The exceptionally low near-surface Vs (~0.85 km/s) and the gradual increase in Vs at SONT suggest the presence of unconsolidated thick sediments (~2.3 km) overlying high-velocity basement rocks (Vs ~3.4 km/s), likely corresponding to exposed Mesozoic formations with no indication of basaltic traps. Meanwhile, MORK exhibits relatively higher near-surface Vs (~2.2 km/s), indicating more compacted sediments with a thinner sediment layer (~0.8 km)  overlying ~1.4 km thick volcanic rocks (Vs ~3.1 km/s). This study highlights the potential of passive seismic exploration in imaging sedimentary formations hidden beneath thick volcanic rock layers, offering a cost-effective alternative to conventional geophysical methods.

How to cite: Rajina, A. M. and Maurya, S.: Sub-Basaltic Sediment Imaging with Teleseismic Earthquakes using a Transdimensional Bayesian Approach, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21032, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21032, 2026.

EGU26-21510 | ECS | Orals | SM6.1

Three-Dimensional Velocity Model Of Lake Van 

Mehveş Feyza Akkoyunlu, Bülent Kaypak, and Bülent Oruç

The Mw 7.1 earthquake east of Lake Van on 23 October 2011 triggered intense aftershock activity, with over 10,000 earthquakes recorded between 2011 and 2015. Accurate earthquake locations are essential for reliable seismological studies, and they depend on station coverage, phase-picking quality, and the use of robust velocity models. In this study, waveform data from temporary and permanent seismic networks were combined into a unified dataset. P- and S-wave phases were manually picked, and earthquakes were systematically relocated. A high-quality subset of events was used to derive a one-dimensional (1-D) velocity model, which served as the reference for three-dimensional (3-D) VP and VP/VS inversion. The resulting 3-D velocity models reveal strong lateral and vertical variations along fault zones. Near the mainshock, high- and low-velocity anomalies are observed at multiple depths and extend predominantly in east–west and NE–SW directions. These anomalies reflect the influence of the compressional tectonic regime, complex faulting, and magmatic structures in the region. Our results highlight the value of integrated earthquake relocation and 3-D velocity modeling for understanding seismicity and crustal structure in complex continental collision zones such as Lake Van. Keywords: Earthquake relocation, seismic tomography, inversion, three-dimensional velocity model, seismicity

How to cite: Akkoyunlu, M. F., Kaypak, B., and Oruç, B.: Three-Dimensional Velocity Model Of Lake Van, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21510, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21510, 2026.

EGU26-293 | ECS | Orals | SM6.2

INDOVSV24: A 3D shear wave velocity model of the Lithosphere-Asthenosphere system beneath the Indian Ocean 

Silpa Sundaran, Padma Rao Bommoju, and Satish Maurya

The structure of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system beneath the Indian Ocean remains one of the most enigmatic and relatively understudied among the world's ocean basins, mainly because of its complex geological settings and diverse seismotectonic features. Therefore, the present study aims to delineate the shear‐wave velocity structure of the Lithosphere–Asthenosphere System beneath the Indian Ocean using surface wave tomography. For this analysis, we considered waveforms from events sampling the study region with a magnitude ≥ 5.0, recorded at 856 selected seismic stations operated under 44 seismic networks, with epicentral distances between 20° and 100°. To ensure high data quality, only waveforms with a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) ≥ 2.5 were retained. Dispersion analysis was then performed on the pre-processed data to manually pick the dispersion curves. This procedure resulted in ~32,000 Rayleigh-wave dispersion curves, with periods ranging from 18 to 180 s. These high-quality dispersion measurements were used to derive regionalized Rayleigh‐wave group velocities, which were subsequently inverted using a trans-dimensional approach to obtain the shear wave velocities. The resulting 3D shear velocity model, INDOVSV24, provides an improved lateral resolution of 200 to 600 km down to depths of 300 km, significantly enhancing the resolution compared with previous studies. This model shows excellent correlation with surface tectonics and accurately delineates significant features such as mid-oceanic ridges and subduction zones. Intriguingly, our model and tectonic regionalization results identify a distinct low-velocity anomaly oriented in the SW-NE direction with a localized strong low-velocity anomaly/reservoir in the north-eastern side within the Indo-Australian Diffusion Plate Boundary (IADPB) zone. This observation aligns with seafloor age data, indicating a relatively younger age (~40 Ma) in this region compared to its surrounding areas. The strong low-velocity anomaly/reservoir (DPB_LVZ) within the IADPB zone on the western side of the Sunda subduction zone (SSZ) may result from the accumulation of asthenosphere material from the ridges near the sub-slab side of the subducting Sunda plate, along with upwellings facilitated from deeper sources. These seismological findings strongly suggest ongoing active dynamics in the Indo-Australian Diffusion Plate Boundary Zone.

How to cite: Sundaran, S., Bommoju, P. R., and Maurya, S.: INDOVSV24: A 3D shear wave velocity model of the Lithosphere-Asthenosphere system beneath the Indian Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-293, 2026.

EGU26-1192 | Posters on site | SM6.2

Multicomponent Ambient Noise Adjoint Tomography of the Main Himalayan Thrust 

Visrutha Chalakkatta, Arjun Datta, and Abhijit Ghosh

We construct a 3-D crustal shear wave velocity model of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) beneath central Nepal using ambient noise adjoint tomography. The MHT is the major plate boundary fault accommodating India–Eurasia convergence and was the source of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake. This full-waveform inversion method uses the spectral-element method (SEM) and updates shear wave velocity directly from multicomponent empirical Green’s functions (EGFs). Previous studies suggest that the MHT exhibits substantial lateral variation and consists of north-dipping, imbricate thrust faults forming a duplex structure. These faults influence strain accumulation and rupture dynamics but their geometries remain poorly constrained by ray-based seismological imaging methods. 

We analyze 11 months of continuous data from 42 stations of the NAMASTE (Nepal Array Measuring Aftershock Seismicity Trailing Earthquake) network, deployed about 50 days after the Gorkha earthquake and spanning the rupture zone with an average spacing of 20 km. From multicomponent ambient noise cross-correlations, we extract EGFs in the 5–40 s period band. Frequency-dependent traveltime misfits between EGFs and synthetic Green’s functions from SEM simulations are iteratively minimized using finite-frequency sensitivity kernels. The resulting model will provide improved constraints on MHT geometry and contribute to a better understanding of Himalayan tectonics and seismic hazard.

How to cite: Chalakkatta, V., Datta, A., and Ghosh, A.: Multicomponent Ambient Noise Adjoint Tomography of the Main Himalayan Thrust, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1192, 2026.

This study utilizes high-resolution multi-parameter full-waveform inversion (FWI) models to investigate the structure, evolution, and destabilization mechanisms of the continental lithosphere beneath North America and Europe. The results reveal the widespread presence of vertically oriented high-velocity anomalies extending from the base of the lithosphere into the mantle transition zone beneath stable cratons. Combined with geodynamic modeling, these features are interpreted as signatures of lithospheric dripping or delamination processes driven by large-scale mantle flow associated with subducted slabs. This suggests that even long-lived, stable cratonic roots can undergo passive erosion and removal under specific mantle flow conditions.

Detailed analysis of shear-wave velocity profiles and seismic anisotropy further reveals a depth-dependent strength stratification within the lithosphere. In oceanic regions, a low-velocity, weak asthenospheric layer appears between ~70–200 km depth, whereas in cratonic regions, velocities remain significantly higher than reference models (e.g., STW105) down to ~250 km, indicating a cold and rigid lithospheric root. Anisotropy profiles show contrasting deformation behaviors: oceanic lithosphere exhibits weak anisotropy at shallow levels but stronger anisotropy at depth, reflecting active mantle flow beneath a brittle lid; in contrast, cratonic regions show relatively weak anisotropy overall but enhanced signals in the lower crust, possibly due to fossil deformation fabrics.These findings support a “sandwich-like” strength model of the lithosphere, characterized by alternating brittle and ductile layers. The presence of lower-crustal anisotropy suggests significant viscous flow, while upper mantle anisotropy indicates alignment with mantle flow patterns. Similar features are observed in North America, including strong azimuthal anisotropy in both the lower crust and around 100 km depth beneath the craton, further supporting the existence of vertically distributed, rheologically distinct domains.

Overall, this work provides important seismic constraints on the internal structure and dynamics of continental lithosphere. It demonstrates that cratonic lithosphere is not universally stable and can undergo modification through deep mantle processes. It also clarifies the nature of strength layering, deformation mechanisms, and interactions between tectonically active zones and stable lithospheric domains—key insights for understanding continental evolution and intraplate seismicity.

 

How to cite: Zhu, H.:  Investigating continental lithospheric dripping and deformation-constraints from multi-parameter seismic models , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2126, 2026.

The Youjiang Basin at the junction of Yunnan–Guizhou–Guangxi in South China hosts a major Carlin-type gold province, yet the deep crustal architecture and magmatic system that control fluid pathways remain debated. We analyze continuous ambient seismic noise recorded by 114 broadband stations of a dense temporary array from May 2011 to January 2012 (~260 effective days). Interstation Green’s functions are retrieved, Rayleigh-wave dispersion is measured, and a three-dimensional shear-wave velocity model from 0 to ~50 km depth is obtained via direct inversion of surface-wave dispersion. The model shows strong lateral heterogeneity: a high-velocity domain in the northwest aligns with carbonate-platform facies, whereas a broad low-velocity domain in the southeast matches clastic basin facies. Between 104° and 105°E, a gently dipping low-velocity band corresponds to slope-facies strata and likely represents a mechanically weak, fluid-favorable unit. Several SW–NE and NW–SE trending, steeply dipping low-velocity corridors delineate major boundary and intra-basin fault systems, consistent with deep-reaching conduits for magma and hydrothermal fluids. At depth, a Moho-adjacent high-velocity anomaly at ~35–40 km suggests mafic underplating, while lens-shaped high-velocity bodies at ~15–20 km beneath the main ore field indicate solidified felsic intrusions and magma chambers. Together these features define a two-tier magmatic system linked by faults, providing a physically consistent deep-to-shallow metallogenic framework in which deep heat and magmatic inputs drive fluid generation, faults focus upward transport, and favorable stratigraphic units promote fluid–rock interaction and gold precipitation. This crustal image links basin segmentation, fault-controlled connectivity, and multi-level magmatism, offering new geophysical constraints on tectono-magmatic processes and associated mineralization in the Youjiang Basin.

How to cite: Jialiang, J.: Ambient-noise tomography links crustal faults and magma chambers beneath the Youjiang Basin: a metallogenic framework for Carlin-type gold, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2347, 2026.

Crustal anisotropy beneath a dense broadband seismic array across the Longmenshan fault belt is measured based on P-to-S converted phases from the Moho and an intra-crustal interface. The crustal thickness and the average Vp/Vs values are also estimated by a new H-k-c method. The crustal anisotropy in Aba sub-block mainly comes from the middle-lower crust and the NW-SE fast polarization directions (FPDs) may reflect the direction of the crustal flow. A sharp variation of FPDs is observed in the vicinity of the Longriba faults, combined with the Vp/Vs values and other geological and geophysical observations, we suggest the Longriba faults may block the eastward flow of crustal materials. East of the Longriba faults, the consistence between the FPDs and the direction of the maximum horizontal compression, and low Vp/Vs values indicated that the crustal thickening may be the dominant deformation mechanism in the Longmenshan sub-block. The crustal anisotropy in the Longmenshan fault belt is mainly manifested as fault-parallel FPDs, probably related to fluid-filled fractures in this area. The Sichuan basin is weakly anisotropic and the NE-SW FPDs may reflect the tectonic strike. Combined with previous observations, our results suggest that the crustal flow and crustal thickening are co-exist in the crustal deformation in eastern Tibet.

How to cite: Tan, P., Chen, Y., and Nie, S.: Crustal deformation in eastern margin of Tibetan Plateau from a dense linear seismic array, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2350, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2350, 2026.

Multimode surface-wave dispersion provides critical constraints on crustal and lithospheric velocity structures, with higher modes offering complementary sensitivity to different depth ranges compared to the fundamental mode. However, extracting reliable multimode information from seismic event records remains challenging under realistic observation conditions. Unlike ambient noise wavefields, seismic-event wavefields are strongly influenced by source radiation patterns, wavefront curvature, and complex angular structures, particularly when events occur within or near dense seismic arrays. Consequently, most existing multimode surface-wave methods rely on far-field plane-wave assumptions or azimuthal selection strategies, which limit their applicability for complex source–receiver geometries.

In this study, we propose a unified framework for extracting multimode surface-wave dispersion from seismic records by explicitly accounting for source radiation effects in the wavefield representation. Starting from a polar-coordinate description of the surface-wave displacement field, the wavefield is decomposed into angular components associated with different azimuthal orders, allowing isotropic and anisotropic contributions introduced by double-couple sources to be separated. This angular decomposition enables different Bessel-function components (e.g., zeroth- and higher-order terms) to be treated independently, thereby mitigating modal interference that commonly affects conventional frequency–Bessel approaches.

Furthermore, by exploiting the theoretical equivalence between the polar-coordinate formulation and a two-dimensional spatial Fourier transform, the proposed framework reformulates the conventional Bessel-integral representation into a unified and computationally efficient 2D Fourier-domain implementation. This transformation substantially simplifies the dispersion-spectrum calculation while preserving physical consistency, enabling robust multimode dispersion extraction under arbitrary array geometries without imposing far-field assumptions or azimuthal filtering.

Synthetic experiments and applications to dense-array seismic data demonstrate that the proposed method reliably retrieves both fundamental and higher-mode dispersion over a broad frequency range. The resulting multimode constraints provide improved resolution for seismic imaging of crustal and lithospheric structures, highlighting the potential of the framework for high-resolution studies using modern dense-array deployments.

How to cite: Han, W. and Laiyu, L.: A unified framework for extracting multimode surface-wave dispersion from seismic records accounting for source radiation patterns, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2399, 2026.

Ambient noise cross-correlations enable the extraction of multimodal surface waves, yet resolving their complex dispersion characteristics is essential for robust subsurface imaging. Using dense array data from the North China Plain, we resolve multicomponent multimodal Rayleigh and Love wave dispersion with unprecedented detail. The results reveal several distinct dispersion characteristics, including stronger excitation of higher modes on horizontal components, opposite polarity of the first higher mode on the ZR-RZ component, and a switching of the dominant Rayleigh mode between vertical and horizontal components at low frequencies. We also identify and confirm mode kissing between fundamental and first higher Rayleigh modes and guided P modes arising from normal mode and leaky mode coupling. These dispersion characteristics are primarily controlled by the shallow low-velocity sediments, which govern frequency-dependent mode excitation, polarity, and energy partitioning. Integrating these multicomponent multimodal observations improves the physical interpretability and reliability of subsurface imaging. 

How to cite: Yu, C. and Zhang, G.: Ambient-noise multicomponent multimodal dispersion characteristics in thick sedimentary basins, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2983, 2026.

EGU26-4201 | ECS | Orals | SM6.2

Lithospheric structure of the Kashmir basin and Panjal traps, western Himalaya: Insights from Seismic Imaging 

Gokul Saha, Imtiyaz A. Parvez, Vivek Kumar, Shyam S. Rai, and Vinod K. Gaur

We present a high-resolution image of the crust and lithospheric mantle beneath the Kashmir basin and surrounding Panjal traps of northern India that form the largest contiguous outcropping of the Permian (289 Ma) Himalayan volcanic groups, to a depth of 160 km, utilizing data from 22 seismological stations deployed in 3 phases between 2014 and 2024. The velocity structure is computed through joint inversion of receiver functions and Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion data (period of 5-100s), alongside structural imaging using common conversion point (CCP) migration. The velocity image reveals several important crustal features: (i) Compared to global continent crust, the Kashmir-Panjal crust is more felsic with velocity of ~3.5 km/s to a depth of 40 km (ii) An anomalous feature of this region is a 25-30 km thick underplated high velocity layer (Vs>4.0 km/s) at the base of the crust. (iii) Moho depth is ~75 km in the southwestern part of the Kashmir valley, whereas it is ~65 km in the northeastern part. (iv) The Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) is identified as a flat and low shear wave velocity (Vs ~3.1 and 3.4 km/s) structure located above crystalline Indian crust (Vs of ~3.6 km/s). In the shallow mantle, we observe a 30-40 km thick west dipping low velocity (4.3-4.4 km/s) channel at a depth of 90-120 km. This is the first report of such a low velocity channel in the western Himalaya. It’s genesis requires further investigation, currently in progress.

How to cite: Saha, G., Parvez, I. A., Kumar, V., Rai, S. S., and Gaur, V. K.: Lithospheric structure of the Kashmir basin and Panjal traps, western Himalaya: Insights from Seismic Imaging, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4201, 2026.

EGU26-4463 | Posters on site | SM6.2

Seismic evidence for lithospheric delamination-driven mantle upwelling beneath the northern Tibetan Plateau 

Wei Li, Xiaohui Yuan, Rizheng He, and Yun Chen

How the Tibetan Plateau grew farther north from the India-Asia collision boundary has profound implications for understanding the mechanics of continental deformation and accretion. Lithospheric delamination and associated mantle upwelling have been inferred beneath the northern Tibetan Plateau, supported by widespread active magmatism coeval with the rapid uplift of the Hoh-Xil Basin since the Miocene. However, in-situ seismic constraints have been limited due to the region’s inaccessibility. In this study, we combine ambient noise tomography and shear wave splitting analysis to investigate the structures of the crust and upper mantle, using recently available data from linear seismic arrays across the Hoh-Xil Basin. Our three-dimensional S-wave velocity model reveals a partially molten crust in the Hoh-Xil Basin, manifested as widespread low-VS anomalies, which is spatially correlated with strong uppermost mantle low-velocity anomalies and young exposed magmatic rocks. Our new shear wave splitting measurements across the Hoh-Xil Basin reveal significant E-W-oriented splittings reflecting variability in mantle dynamics, as indicated by the estimated anisotropy depth of 150−200 km and the alignment closely with the absolute plate motion of the Tibetan Plateau. The delay times of these splittings peak at ~1.8 s in the northern Qiangtang Terrane and gradually decrease as SKS travel-time residuals increase toward the northern margin of the plateau, coinciding with the northward migration of young magmatism. These findings provide compelling evidence for the mantle upwelling beneath the Hoh-Xil Basin driven by extreme lithospheric thinning, suggesting that the plateau grew northward through lithospheric mantle removal and subsequent magmatic accretion.

How to cite: Li, W., Yuan, X., He, R., and Chen, Y.: Seismic evidence for lithospheric delamination-driven mantle upwelling beneath the northern Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4463, 2026.

EGU26-5044 | Posters on site | SM6.2

Wedge-Shaped Structure and Its Implications for the Haiyuan-Liupan Shan Arcuate Tectonic Belt Revealed by High-Resolution Ambient Noise Tomography 

Panpan Zhao, Jiuhui Chen, Qiyuan Liu, Yuan Gao, Anhui Sun, Yifang Chen, Yong Chen, Shuncheng Li, and Wenze Deng

The Haiyuan-Liupan Shan (HY-LPS) arcuate tectonic belt, located at the junction of the growth front of the Tibetan Plateau and the North China Craton, serves as a natural laboratory for investigating continental collision. Investigating the fine structure and dynamic processes in this area not only deepens our understanding of the debated growth and deformation patterns of the plateau, but also clarifies the interactions between the plateau and the adjacent craton. In this study, we establish a high-resolution three-dimensional crustal shear-wave velocity structure surrounding the HY-LPS arcuate tectonic belt using the surface wave imaging technique, utilizing ambient noise data from 219 broadband stations. The shear-wave velocity structure in this region exhibits a strong correlation with geological tectonics, consistent with the transformation of boundary faults from strike-slip to thrust. Low-velocity bodies are extensively distributed in the middle crust of the Longxi block, which is located at the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. The formation of these low-velocity anomalies may result from multifactorial interactions. Our results indicate that the upper and lower crusts in the Longxi block are decoupled, and the mid-crustal low-velocity bodies act as a detachment layer. This decoupling mechanism facilitates the growth of the plateau margin by enabling the upper crust to overthrust onto the craton, thereby contributing to the formation of the Liupan Shan. Furthermore, the lower crust of the Longxi block is found thickened due to the obstruction imposed by the North China Craton and intruded into the cratonic lower crust. The cratonic crust has been compromised due to the combined effects of tectonic compression and thermal erosion associated with the northeastward expansion of the Tibetan Plateau, which has facilitated the development of wedge tectonics.

How to cite: Zhao, P., Chen, J., Liu, Q., Gao, Y., Sun, A., Chen, Y., Chen, Y., Li, S., and Deng, W.: Wedge-Shaped Structure and Its Implications for the Haiyuan-Liupan Shan Arcuate Tectonic Belt Revealed by High-Resolution Ambient Noise Tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5044, 2026.

EGU26-5125 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.2

The mantle transition zone structure beneath the Tarim Craton and deep-seated dynamics 

Yingkai Wu and Xuewei Bao

The deep-seated mantle dynamics beneath the Tarim Craton remain highly elusive. The active mantle plume model and passive mantle upwelling model caused by subduction and delamination have been suggested. In this research, we imaged the mantle transition zone (MTZ) structure beneath Tarim Craton using more than 50000 P-wave receiver functions obtained from the newly deployed seismic array in the basin and previously collected seismic data. To obtain the accurate true depths of the 410-km discontinuity (d410) and 660-km discontinuity (d660), we conduct crustal and mantle correction using several high-resolution 3-D crustal and mantle velocity models during time-to-depth migration. The depressed d410 (~10-15 km) and d660 are suggested by our previous research, which is interpreted to be caused by the mantle upwelling originating from the delaminated lithosphere stagnant near the d660 (Wu and Bao, 2024). However, the new preliminary results show a thinned MTZ beneath majority of the Tarim Craton, caused by the depressed d410 and uplifted d660. In the meanwhile, a thickened MTZ beneath the eastern Tarim Craton is imaged, resulting from the slightly depressed d410 and significantly depressed d660. Accordingly, the new results may indicate deep mantle upwelling beneath the Tarim Craton, consistent with the global-scale tomographic models. The lithospheric delamination near d660 beneath the eastern Tarim Craton is supported. But the origins and dynamics of the mantle upwelling and delamination should be further investigated using various methods such as thermo-mechanical numerical modeling.

 

Reference

Wu, Y., & Bao, X. (2024). The Mantle transition zone structure beneath the Pamir Plateau and western Tian Shan and adjacent regions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 129, e2023JB028129. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JB028129.

How to cite: Wu, Y. and Bao, X.: The mantle transition zone structure beneath the Tarim Craton and deep-seated dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5125, 2026.

EGU26-5358 | Orals | SM6.2

EPOS CSS - Facilitating the discovery and reuse of Controlled Source Seismic data 

Henning Lorenz and the EPOS CSS community

Controlled Source Seismic (CSS) data are key to understanding the structure and composition of the lithosphere at different scales. They are highly valuable both in their own right and as input to multidisciplinary studies and Earth system modelling. The challenge for scientists is to find existing data, assess their relevance for a particular purpose, and eventually get access and permission to reuse selected data sets.

The European research infrastructure for solid Earth sciences EPOS (European Plate Observing System) was designed to solve such problems. It is a multidisciplinary, distributed research infrastructure that facilitates the integrated use of data, data products, and facilities from the solid Earth science community. FAIR principles are put into practice, enabling access to data and products from hundreds of scientific data services across Europe. Data services provided by EPOS are defined in a bottom-up approach by the experts in the respective thematic communities. However, CSS data are not available through EPOS. Primarily, because EPOS was lacking the support of a dedicated CSS community.

At EGU24, a community building effort started with the aim of bringing CCS data to EPOS. Early on, the informal community defined two targets: Firstly, to develop a data model for data set discovery, as no existing standards or common practices for describing CSS data sets could be identified. Secondly, to develop and provide best practices for the publication of academic data sets. As of early 2026, a data service that works with an EPOS test-environment was implemented successfully, and the data model is being tested. Community and technical integration with EPOS will be discussed during SPM58 at EGU26.

This presentation focuses on the discovery data model (“scientific metadata”). Discovery data connect the user from a single entry point (the EPOS portal) with the data, which are distributed, i.e. stored at various locations. To make this practically feasible, the following requirements were established: i) sufficient detail to describe complex datasets, ii) a limited set of obligatory attributes, to avoid conflicts that could shut out potential data providers, and iii) the use of controlled vocabularies wherever possible. Core (obligatory) attributes state that a data set exists and includes information on survey and campaign names, year, geolocation, content, access via URI and license. These are supplemented by (optional) descriptive and technical attributes, which are meant to provide scientists with sufficient information for the selection of relevant data sets. The former include information on organisations, purpose, source and sensor types, scale, processing and description. The latter provide details like spacings, offsets, number of points and channels.

A successful data discovery is meant to conclude with accessing the selected data via the URI provided in the core attribute. These URIs resolve to a (human and machine-readable) landing page at the data repository that contains details on the mode of access, citation and other information that is regarded as relevant by the data provider.

The CSS community invites interested colleagues to participate and contribute (please contact the first author).

How to cite: Lorenz, H. and the EPOS CSS community: EPOS CSS - Facilitating the discovery and reuse of Controlled Source Seismic data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5358, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5358, 2026.

Several high quality reflection seismic profiles were acquired over the Siljan Ring impact structure in the mid- to late-1980s using an explosive source and 80 to 120 channels. Furthermore, two deep boreholes, Gravberg-1 and Stenberg-1, were drilled to more than 6 km depth in the area in search for abiogenic gas. Boreholes to these depths in Precambrian rock are rare and provide some ground truth for interpretation of the seismic data. Results from the seismic data have been presented in a number of publications where we have demonstrated that data have (1) helped to improve our understanding of the impact cratering process (Juhlin and Pedersen, 1987, 1993), (2) allowed us to identify the source of some of the seismic reflectivity in Precambrian basement (Juhlin, 1990; Papasikas and Juhlin, 1997) and (3) provided preliminary mapping of the Moho in the area with near vertical incidence seismic data (Juhojuntti and Juhlin, 1998). Even though these studies were initiated more than 40 years ago, the data can still provide new insight into crustal structure and the potential to image it in detail. Reprocessing of the data in a consistent manner with modern software and careful merging of the various profiles allows different perspectives of the data to emerge compared to earlier results. In particular, a strong band of reflectivity at about 5 s TWT (c. 15 km) is present throughout most of the area. Reflections from this band appear to be of a different nature from the shallower more distinct reflections that are known to originate from dolerites that have intruded into the surrounding granitic rock. Whether or not all the shallow reflections originate from dolerites is still an open question. I will present the latest results from the reprocessing, an expanded interpretation of the crustal structure and some suggestions for future research.

Juhlin C., 1990, Interpretation of reflections in the Siljan Ring area based on results from the Gravberg-1 borehole, Tectonophysics, 173, 345-360.

Juhlin C. and Pedersen L. B., 1987, Reflection seismic investigations of the Siljan impact structure, Sweden, J. Geophys. Res., 92, 14113-14122.

Juhlin C. and Pedersen L.B., 1993, Further constraints on the formation of the Siljan impact crater from seismic reflection studies, Geologiska Föreningens i Stockholm Förhandlingar 115, 151-158.

Juhojuntti N. and Juhlin C., 1998, Seismic lower crustal reflectivity and signal penetration in the Siljan Ring area, central Sweden, Tectonophysics, 288, 17-30.

Papasikas N. and Juhlin C., 1997, Interpretation of reflections from the central part of the Siljan Ring Impact structure based on results from the Stenberg-1 borehole, Tectonophysics, 269, 237-245.

How to cite: Juhlin, C.: Another look at reflection seismic data acquired over the Siljan Ring impact structure, central Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5596, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5596, 2026.

EGU26-6461 | Orals | SM6.2

Crustal geometry and anisotropic signature beneath NE Iberia 

Jordi Diaz, Joan-Anton Parera-Portell, David Cruset, Samuel Jorde, and Jaume Vergés

NE Iberia marks the transition between compressive tectonics in the Pyrenees and the extensional regime along the Gulf of Lion and the Valencia Trough, and includes the Catalan Volcanic Zone, an alkaline volcanic zone field, which represents the southern branch of the European Cenozoic Rift System (ECRIS). While the large-scale geometry of the crust and the general trend of the anisotropy pattern are known from previous studies, new data acquired in the framework of the EPYSIM project allow for a more detailed characterization of these features.

The transition from the central Pyrenees to the Valencia Trough and the Gulf of Lion is defined by an abrupt crustal thinning. New data from two 60 km long profiles, one oriented NE-SW, parallel to the coastline, and the other oriented orthogonally, has been used to construct detailed pseudo-migrated receiver function sections. The coast-orthogonal profile, broadly oriented NW-SE, shows a decrease in crustal thickness from 35 km northwest of the Garrotxa Volcanic Field to 28 km beneath the La Selva Basin, reaching approximately 25 km near the coastline. The coast-parallel profile shows crustal thickness around 30 km in the west, thinning to approximately 25 km to the east, near the Gulf of Roses. Additionally, data acquired by a network of 60 stations covering NE Iberia with interstation distances of about 8 km has been analyzed used using the H-K method, providing independent constrains on crustal geometry.

SKS splitting along these profiles confirms the general E-W orientation of the fast polarization direction (FPD). Projection of results to the piercing point at 200 km depth suggests subtle difference between the Catalan Volcanic Zone, where FPDs are close to the E-W direction, and the south-western area, where they exhibit slightly higher azimuths. This difference may reflect the extension beneath the Valencia Though. Recent estimates of azimuthal anisotropy at the crust and uppermost mantle from surface wave tomography and previous Pn tomography results derived indicate strong variations in FPD orientation at different depths beneath NE Iberia, suggesting that each dataset is sensitive to anisotropy of different origins (e.g., cracks, frozen-in fabrics, asthenospheric flow)

The updated crustal geometry derived from receiver functions analysis and the regional seismic anisotropy pattern will be compared with recent geological models that integrate petrological and geochemical results of volcanic rocks, along with geophysical, structural and geochronological data. These models suggest that volcanism in the Catalan Volcanic Zone is controlled by crustal thinning and development of the NW-SE oriented Transverse Fault System.

This work has been supported by the EPYSIM Project, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Ref.: PID2022-136981NB-I00).

How to cite: Diaz, J., Parera-Portell, J.-A., Cruset, D., Jorde, S., and Vergés, J.: Crustal geometry and anisotropic signature beneath NE Iberia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6461, 2026.

EGU26-6468 | Posters on site | SM6.2

Low-velocity layer atop the subducting Indian plate beneath the Burmese Arc constrained by guided waves 

Congyi Peng, Yuanze Zhou, and Jiayu Feng

The Burmese arc, located at the eastern Himalayan syntaxis formed by the collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates, is characterized by intense crustal deformation, active magmatic–metamorphic processes, and frequent seismicity. Imaging the low-velocity layer (LVL) atop the subducting Indian plate is crucial for understanding post-collisional magmatism and lithospheric dynamics in this region, yet its detailed structure remains poorly constrained. Using continuous seismic data recorded by the CMGSMO network between June 2016 and February 2018, we identified 11 intermediate-depth earthquakes within the subducting Indian plate beneath the central Burmese arc that exhibit prominent guided-wave signatures. We conducted two-dimensional finite-difference simulations for a representative event near 22°N and obtained a best-fitting velocity model through systematic comparisons between synthetic and observed seismograms, including waveform characteristics and arrival-time behavior of guided phases. The preferred model reveals a LVL atop the subducting plate, characterized by P-wave velocities of 6.4–6.9 km s⁻¹ and a thickness of 8–14 km. The observed spatial distribution of guided wave events further suggests lateral variability of the LVL, consistent with a localized tear zone in the subducting slab. We interpret the LVL as a partially molten layer generated by the combined effects of Monywa magmatism, thermally driven upwelling associated with slab tearing, and fluid release due to slab dehydration. These results highlight the role of slab tearing in controlling melt generation and transport beneath the Burmese arc and provide new seismic constraints on post-collisional lithospheric processes in the eastern Himalayan region.

How to cite: Peng, C., Zhou, Y., and Feng, J.: Low-velocity layer atop the subducting Indian plate beneath the Burmese Arc constrained by guided waves, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6468, 2026.

EGU26-7242 | Orals | SM6.2

New insights into the cooling of the oceanic lithosphere from surface-wave tomographic inferences 

Paula Koelemeijer, Franck Latallerie, Andrew Walker, Alessia Maggi, Sophie Lambotte, and Christophe Zaroli

How oceanic plates cool and thicken with age remains a subject to debate, with several thermal models supported by apparently contradictory data. Combining a novel imaging technique that balances resolution and uncertainty with finite-frequency surface-wave measurements (Latallerie et al., Seismica, 2025), we build tomographic model SS3DPacific to revisit the cooling style of the oceanic lithosphere beneath the Pacific ocean (Latallerie et al., GRL, 2026). Resolution analysis indicates a strong vertical smearing that biases estimates of the apparent lithospheric thickness, limiting the ability to discriminate between the half space and plate cooling models. Laterally, a pattern of anomalous bands in seismic velocity aligned with fracture zones points to additional lateral complexities in the lithosphere, complicating simple age-trend analyses.

How to cite: Koelemeijer, P., Latallerie, F., Walker, A., Maggi, A., Lambotte, S., and Zaroli, C.: New insights into the cooling of the oceanic lithosphere from surface-wave tomographic inferences, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7242, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7242, 2026.

EGU26-7323 | Orals | SM6.2

Towards thermo-chemical full-waveform inversion: integrating mineral physics and seismology 

Andrea Zunino, Federico Daniel Munch, Alessandro Ghirotto, Giacomo Aloisi, and Andreas Fichtner


Knowledge of planetary interior structure is essential for understanding the origin and evolution of the Solar System. Seismic full-waveform inversion (FWI) is currently the state-of-the-art method for imaging Earth's interior and has revealed mantle heterogeneities at increasingly finer scales. However, FWI solely images variations in seismic properties and, as a result, the thermal or/and chemical origin of such anomalies is poorly constrained. Mineral physics provides complementary constraints by linking seismic properties to temperature, pressure and composition through laboratory measurements. Over the past two decades, significant work has been done to integrate seismic observations with mineral physics predictions. Nevertheless, direct integration of FWI and thermodynamic calculations has not yet been achieved, limiting our ability to fully exploit the information contained in seismic waveforms to image changes in temperature and composition.

In this contribution, we present a novel framework that integrates state-of-the-art FWI techniques with mineral physics to directly invert seismic waveforms for mantle temperature and chemical composition. The forward model is based on pre-calculated tables of mantle properties, which provide the seismic properties to carry out wave propagation. The inverse problem is formulated as an optimisation problem where gradients of the objective function with respect to temperature and composition are required. For the seismic component, we employ the adjoint method. For the thermodynamic component, we developed a formalism accounting for the pressure–density coupling which is combined with the seismic part by exploiting the chain rule. This approach is tested on 2-D synthetic models containing thermal and compositional anomalies where P–SV elastic wave propagation is simulated. The optimisation problem is solved using the L-BFGS algorithm. The proposed framework successfully recovers anomalies in temperature and composition, while revealing a strong trade-off. Such non-uniqueness reflects the importance of taking into account both thermal and compositional variations and a priori information about them. The proposed framework enables the integration of diverse geophysical datasets as well as the incorporation of additional information on the potential origin of certain mantle anomalies based on petrological constraints, which are crucial to tackle the non-uniqueness of the inverse problem.

How to cite: Zunino, A., Munch, F. D., Ghirotto, A., Aloisi, G., and Fichtner, A.: Towards thermo-chemical full-waveform inversion: integrating mineral physics and seismology, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7323, 2026.

EGU26-7433 | Posters on site | SM6.2

Crustal and Upper-mantle Structure Beneath Pamir by Multi-Scale P-wave Traveltime Tomography 

Biao Guo, Jiuhui Chen, and Shuncheng Li

The Pamir, located northwest of Tibet, constitutes part of Earth's largest active continental collisional orogen and represents an ideal natural laboratory for studying continental subduction. Although numerous structural models have been proposed, the morphology of subducting Indian and Asian lithospheric slabs remains poorly constrained. Using a Multi-Scale Sparsity traveltime tomography method and a comprehensive P-wave traveltime database compiled from ISC bulletins and phase picks from temporary seismic arrays, we present new P-wave velocity models that image detailed mantle structure beneath the Pamir and illuminate the geometry of the subducted slabs.

Our tomographic results reveal: 1) At sub-Moho depths, a southward-dipping high-velocity slab beneath the eastern Pamir underlies intermediate-depth earthquakes; 2) At the top of the upper mantle, relatively low velocities are shown in the Fergana Basin and Tianshan orogenic belt, while high velocities are observed beneath the Pamir Plateau and Tarim Basin; 3) At depths of 200–300 km, low-velocity anomalies persist beneath the Pamir, whereas high-velocity features are displayed beneath the Tianshan and Fergana Basin; and 4) At 250–400 km depth, a high-velocity zone beneath the Eastern Pamir Plateau is interpreted as lithospheric delamination.

How to cite: Guo, B., Chen, J., and Li, S.: Crustal and Upper-mantle Structure Beneath Pamir by Multi-Scale P-wave Traveltime Tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7433, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7433, 2026.

EGU26-7706 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.2

Multi-scale Imaging of Iceland using Ambient Noise and Teleseismic Earthquakes 

Bernard Asare Owusu, Emma L. Chambers, Christopher J. Bean, and Kristín Jónsdóttir

Iceland is one the most active tectonic regions in the world. While previous seismic tomographic models have provided insights into subsurface structure, rifting and the presence of a mantle plume and melt, these models have lacked the multi-scale resolution to connect the near surface and crustal structure to the mantle. In order to advance our understanding on the lithospheric structure and how it relates to geothermal activity we require a high resolution full lithosphere model of Iceland.

 

Using recently acquired passive seismic data, we are constructing a new surface wave velocity model of Iceland by combining ambient noise and teleseismic earthquake data derived from phase velocity dispersion. We use a database of 205 seismic stations from a variety of permanent and temporary networks recorded between 1993 and 2024. We obtain  Rayleigh and Love phase velocity dispersion curves from the cross correlograms using SeisLib (Magrini et al., 2022). For teleseismic earthquakes, we measure phase variation between nearby stations using a waveform cross-correlation method. We perform strict quality control to ensure that the dispersion measurements are robust since the instruments used are of different sensitivities, affecting the dispersion measurements at longer periods. The dispersion curves and phase variations are inverted for phase velocity maps between 4 – 100 seconds period.

 

We observe low velocity in the upper and mid crust around the Western Volcanic Zone (WVZ), Eastern Volcanic Zone (EVZ) and Northern Volcanic Zone (NVZ) following closely with the rifts in Einarsson et al. (2006), and significantly lower velocity around the western edge of the Vatnajökull icecap. We also observe low velocity in central Iceland in the lower crust and upper mantle. We invert the phase velocity maps for shear velocity models of the lithosphere. This new model will contribute to providing high resolution imaging of the Icelandic lithosphere from the crust to mantle. We will in future jointly invert the velocity model with petrological data to model the geothermal structure of Iceland with a local focus at the Krafla volcanic complex.

How to cite: Owusu, B. A., Chambers, E. L., Bean, C. J., and Jónsdóttir, K.: Multi-scale Imaging of Iceland using Ambient Noise and Teleseismic Earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7706, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7706, 2026.

EGU26-7800 | ECS | Orals | SM6.2

Direct Surface-Wave Tomography of Azimuthal Anisotropy Using a Data-Adaptive Ensemble Approach 

Xin Liu, Huajian Yao, Hongjian Fang, and Ying Liu

Surface-wave azimuthal anisotropy provides important constraints on crustal deformation and stress fields. However, its imaging in direct surface-wave tomography remains challenging due to strong parameter trade-offs and the need for carefully tuned smoothing and damping in conventional grid-based inversions, particularly when isotropic velocity and anisotropic parameters are inverted simultaneously (e.g., Fang et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2019).

In this study, we extend the Poisson-Voronoi parameterization of Fang et al. (2020) to direct surface-wave azimuthal anisotropy tomography using a data-adaptive ensemble framework. Model parameters are represented on multiple Poisson-Voronoi realizations that are stochastically generated and subsequently refined according to raypath density, allowing the parameterization to adapt to spatial variations in data coverage. For each realization, the inversion is performed in a reduced parameter space, and individual solutions are combined through a misfit-based ensemble strategy in which poorly constrained realizations are down-weighted. This ensemble-based formulation requires only a limited number of control parameters, minimizes subjective regularization choices, and enables straightforward assessment of model uncertainty and stability across realizations, making the approach largely automated and accessible for users without extensive experience in inverse theory.

We apply the method to a dense seismic array deployed in southwestern China using Rayleigh-wave phase velocity dispersion measurements extracted from ambient noise interferometry. The resulting azimuthal anisotropy model reveals coherent and geologically interpretable patterns associated with major tectonic structures, demonstrating the effectiveness of data-adaptive Poisson-Voronoi ensemble inversion for imaging surface-wave azimuthal anisotropy in dense array settings.

References

Fang, H., Yao, H., Zhang, H., Huang, Y., & van der Hilst, R. (2015). Direct inversion of surface wave dispersion for three‐dimensional shallow crustal structure based on ray tracing: methodology and application. Geophysical Journal International, 201(3), 1251–1263. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggv080

Fang, H. et al. (2020) Parsimonious Seismic Tomography with Poisson Voronoi Projections: Methodology and Validation, Seismological Research Letters, 91(1), pp. 343–355. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190141.

Liu, C., Yao, H., Yang, H. Y., Shen, W., Fang, H., Hu, S., & Qiao, L. (2019). Direct Inversion for Three‐Dimensional Shear Wave Speed Azimuthal Anisotropy Based on Surface Wave Ray Tracing: Methodology and Application to Yunnan, Southwest China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 124(11), 1139411413.

How to cite: Liu, X., Yao, H., Fang, H., and Liu, Y.: Direct Surface-Wave Tomography of Azimuthal Anisotropy Using a Data-Adaptive Ensemble Approach, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7800, 2026.

The advanced imaging technique reverse time migration (RTM) requires solving the partial differential wave equation, for which an analytical solution is infeasible and numerical methods are necessary. A significant challenge in numerical methods arises from inaccuracies in derivatives approximation, making the wave's velocity frequency-dependent and causing numerical dispersion. It is an unphysical artifact that degrades modeling and imaging, particularly at higher frequencies and over time. Avoiding numerical dispersion at high frequencies requires finer spatial grids, which substantially increase computational costs to achieve high-resolution imaging results.
The modified nearly analytical discretization (MNAD) method reduces numerical dispersion by incorporating additional analytical relations through solving both the wavefield and its spatial gradient fields numerically, employing them in higher-order derivative approximations, and improving spatial derivative estimation via energy conservation optimization. 
MNAD is introduced for RTM in large-scale studies, where leveraging compact stencils and coarser spatial and temporal grids enables high-resolution imaging with substantially lower computational and memory costs compared to conventional finite difference (FD) methods. Furthermore, adjoint-state imaging is enhanced with a novel data boundary condition interpolation using MNAD gradient fields, mitigating aliasing effects in recovered images from data recorded at half the Nyquist rate. The proposed approach provides a powerful opportunity for imaging, reducing the required number of sources/receivers and alleviating acquisition costs.
Synthetic experiments validate the method's performance in modeling and imaging on coarser grids than FD methods and in maintaining stability over longer times. Further, the MNAD-based RTM application to ocean bottom seismometer (OBS) data in a large-scale study confirms its capability to achieve high-resolution images with reduced computational costs. Finally, imaging with data sampled at half the Nyquist rate highlights the potential of the proposed approach for minimizing acquisition costs without sacrificing resolution and suffering from aliasing.
These findings affirm MNAD as a robust and efficient alternative to FD methods for large-scale, high-resolution imaging, offering significant advantages in computation, storage, and acquisition efficiency.

 
 

How to cite: Zand, T.: Reverse Time Migration Using Modified Nearly Analytical Discretization for Large-Scale High-Resolution Imaging, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7954, 2026.

EGU26-7964 | ECS | Orals | SM6.2

Stability and numerical dispersion properties of the distributional finite-difference method 

Giacomo Aloisi, Andrea Zunino, Scott Keating, and Andreas Fichtner

Numerical methods for solving the wave equation have been widely adopted in seismology to simulate earthquakes and other seismic phenomena, with the goal of better understanding the underlying physical processes. Commonly used approaches, such as finite-difference methods and spectral element methods, have been extensively studied in terms of their numerical properties, computational cost, and accuracy in modelling the Earth’s response to seismic phenomena.

The recently introduced distributional finite-difference method (DFDM) is a novel approach to seismic wave modelling, aiming to combine advantages of established methods to achieve high accuracy at reduced computational cost. While recent studies have shown the accuracy of DFDM by comparing it to existing methods, a comprehensive investigation of the numerical properties governing its cost and accuracy in the context of solving the wave equation has not yet been carried out.

In this contribution, we focus on two key numerical properties: stability and numerical dispersion. We assess the trade-offs between time-step restrictions and accuracy, and introduce a cost metric to quantify the computational effort required to achieve a prescribed dispersion error threshold. Our results show that, although DFDM has more restrictive stability bounds, it provides superior dispersion performance at lower spatial resolutions compared to conventional methods. This makes DFDM particularly attractive for applications with stringent memory constraints, such as global-scale simulations or full-waveform inversion. These results provide practical guidance for selecting numerical methods in large-scale, physics-based wave simulations.

How to cite: Aloisi, G., Zunino, A., Keating, S., and Fichtner, A.: Stability and numerical dispersion properties of the distributional finite-difference method, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7964, 2026.

EGU26-8516 | Posters on site | SM6.2

Rayleigh Waves from the OHANA Project Indicate Low Mantle Velocities as well as Anisotropy in the Northeast Pacific 

Gabi Laske, John Collins, and Donna Blackman

The 2022-2023 OHANA OBS deployment in the northeast Pacific Ocean provides a rich dataset for comprehensive seismic studies to explore the crust, lithosphere and asthenosphere in a 600-km wide region west of the Moonless Mountains. The study area covers mainly 40-to-50 Myr old Pacific lithosphere. A fundamental question to be addressed is whether this particular area has the signature of a typical oceanic lithosphere that has a normal plate cooling history. Alternatively, we seek evidence for a previously proposed reheating process, e.g. resulting from small-scale shallow-mantle convection. Given its location, the OHANA experiment contributes crucial data to the Pacific Array initiative.

We present the analysis of path-averaged Rayleigh wave dispersion curves obtained from earthquake records. The average dispersion across the OHANA network indicates lower shear velocities than expected for a 50-Myr old crust and lithosphere. Velocities in the mid-to-lower lithosphere appear to be 2-3% lower than expected. Compared to other recent broadband OBS deployments in the Pacific Ocean, we image a profound reduction in shear velocity throughout the entire asthenosphere though imaging fidelity declines with depth.

We observe strong and internally consistent azimuthal anisotropy, where the ‘fast direction’ places between fossil and modern plate motion directions. This anisotropy dominates over isotropic lateral heterogeneity in the crust and lithosphere.  

How to cite: Laske, G., Collins, J., and Blackman, D.: Rayleigh Waves from the OHANA Project Indicate Low Mantle Velocities as well as Anisotropy in the Northeast Pacific, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8516, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8516, 2026.

The subduction zone in South America spans approximately 7500 km from around 10°N to about 60°S, making it the world’s longest continuous subduction zone. In this study, we focus on the northernmost part of the central Chile flat slab subduction zone, which stands out as one of the most prominent flat slabs in South America. Within this region, the Nazca plate subducts beneath the central Chile with a direction of N78°E at a convergence rate of 6.7 ± 0.2 cm a-1 and with a direction of N 78°E. To better understand factors controlling the distribution of volcanoes, plate coupling along the subducting plate interface, and the transition from normal to flat slab subduction, we have determined high-resolution Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs models in the central Chile subduction zone where normal slab subduction transits to flat slab subduction. In the study region spanning latitudes of 22° to 31°S, volcanoes to the north of latitude 25.5°S are underlaid by intensive intermediate-depth earthquakes, but those to the south are correlated with very few. Based on velocity features, we proposed that volcanoes to the north are likely caused by partial melting of mantle wedge by incorporation of fluids released during the dehydration reactions of various hydrous minerals in the slab that are responsible for inducing intermediate-depth earthquakes, while volcanoes to the south are likely caused by sub-slab hot materials migrating upwards through the tear or gap due to the transition from normal subduction to flat subduction. Along the plate surface constructed based on our inverted velocity models and relocated earthquakes, higher plate coupling is spatially correlated with lower Vp/Vs values and fewer earthquakes, whereas lower plate coupling is correlated with relatively higher Vp/Vs values and intensive small earthquakes. These features suggest that the plate coupling state is controlled by the existence of fluids along the plate interface, with high degree of fluids reducing plate coupling and causing the creep deformation. In the region where the flat slab subduction is evident, there exist apparent high velocity anomalies above the intraslab seismicity. This indicates that some buoyant materials such as oceanic plateaus, aseismic ridges and seamount chains that featured high velocity anomalies were subducted with the slab and caused the nominal flat subduction.

How to cite: Gao, L., Chen, Z., Liu, Y., and Zhang, H.: High-resolution seismic tomography of the transition zone from normal to flat slab subduction in central Chile: implications for volcanoes, plate coupling and flat subduction, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8666, 2026.

EGU26-8884 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.2

Imaging Anatolian Lithospheric Structures using High-Resolution Double-Beamforming Ambient Noise Surface-Wave Tomography 

Zahra Zarunizadeh, Kai Wang, Ramin Movaghari, vahid Teknik, and Yingjie Yang

The Anatolian Plateau is one of the most heterogeneous and seismically active segments of the Alpine–Himalayan orogenic belt. It was formed through the amalgamation of several microplates with the Eurasian Plate following the multi-episodic opening and closure of the Tethyan oceans. These complex tectonic processes have produced a highly heterogeneous lithospheric structure across Anatolia. Despite numerous local and regional scale tectonic and geophysical studies, a comprehensive and high-resolution image of the Anatolian lithosphere remains incomplete. To address this, we conducted ambient noise tomography to image the crust and upper mantle beneath the Anatolian Plateau using 2.5 years of continuous vertical-component seismic recordings from 135 broadband stations. By applying the double-beamforming method to cross-correlations, we extracted Rayleigh-wave phase velocities over periods of 8–120 s and group velocities over periods of 6–100s. Two-dimensional phase and group velocity maps are constructed using the Fast-Marching Surface Tomography (FMST) . To obtain a high-resolution three-dimensional shear-wave velocity model, a nonlinear Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach was applied. The resulting Vs model reveals several key features. A low-velocity layer at depths of 10–30 km likely reflects partial melting or thermally weakened crust. A high-velocity layer at depths of 50–80 km, interpreted as evidence for a thin and laterally variable mantle lithosphere, with lithospheric thickness in eastern and central Anatolia ranging from 60 to 70 km, while the thickest lithosphere (~120 km) is observed beneath western Anatolia and the eastern Taurus Mountains. . A pronounced upper-mantle low-velocity anomaly beneath eastern to central Anatolia is interpreted as asthenospheric upwelling or lateral flow. Finally, two deep high-velocity anomalies beneath the southern margin of Anatolia are attributed to the subducting African lithosphere along the Hellenic and Cyprus trenches.

How to cite: Zarunizadeh, Z., Wang, K., Movaghari, R., Teknik, V., and Yang, Y.: Imaging Anatolian Lithospheric Structures using High-Resolution Double-Beamforming Ambient Noise Surface-Wave Tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8884, 2026.

EGU26-8926 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.2

Mantle transition zone imaging beneath the East Sea (Sea of Japan) using teleseismic receiver functions 

Jeong-Yeon Hwang and Sung-Joon Chang

The mantle transition zone (MTZ), bounded by seismic discontinuities near 410 and 660 km depth, plays a key role in mantle convection by regulating heat and material exchange between the upper and lower mantle. In this study, we image the MTZ structure beneath the East Sea (Sea of Japan) using common conversion point (CCP) stacking of teleseismic receiver functions from a dense array of broadband stations located on the Korean Peninsula and the Japanese Islands. The resulting CCP-stacked images reveal a generally thickened MTZ, likely reflecting the presence of the stagnant Pacific slab at the base of the MTZ. In contrast, a near-normal MTZ thickness is observed beneath Ulleung Island, potentially indicating localized thermal or compositional heterogeneity. These findings allow us to assess the relationship between MTZ structure and major tectonic processes in East Asia, providing constraints on mantle temperature, composition, and volatile content.

How to cite: Hwang, J.-Y. and Chang, S.-J.: Mantle transition zone imaging beneath the East Sea (Sea of Japan) using teleseismic receiver functions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8926, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8926, 2026.

Petit-spot volcanoes are small-volume alkaline volcanic features that form on the seafloor of the outer-rise region of subduction zone. Their tectonic significance became evident in the early 2000s, when it was recognized that they are not related to mantle plumes or hotspots, but instead are likely associated with fracturing induced by plate flexure. The prevailing hypothesis suggests that as an oceanic plate approaches a subduction zone, it bends and undergoes extensional stress - particularly at its base - leading to the formation of deep-seated fractures. These fractures provide pathways for small volumes of melt to migrate upward and reach the seafloor. Petit-spot volcanoes also play an important role in modifying the physical and chemical parameters of the incoming plate. However, several aspects of their genesis remain uncertain, particularly how large-scale fractures develop within the lithosphere and how these structures manifest within the oceanic crust and uppermost mantle.

To gain insight into the geological architecture underlying the petit-spot volcanic province at the Japan Trench, we employ high-resolution seismic imaging techniques integrated with magnetic observations. Our analysis is based on a full-waveform inversion (FWI) velocity model constrained by ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) data, complemented by reverse time migration (RTM), kinematic migration (KM), bathymetry, and magnetic anomaly data.

The FWI velocity model forms the foundation of other imaging results and is rigorously validated through real-synthetic data fitting, which demonstrate a strong agreement between both waveforms. Compared to previous tomographic models for this region, the improved kinematic accuracy and resolution enable imaging at greater depths and allow the interpretation of fine-scale features, highlighting velocity contrasts and structural interfaces. Migration results further confirm the robustness of the velocity model by accurately positioning deep structures near the Moho discontinuity and providing improved images of fault-related structures that cut through the crust and locally disrupt the Moho.

The velocity model reveals a layered oceanic crust with pronounced lateral heterogeneity. We identify three prominent low-velocity zones (LVZs) within the crust. The westernmost LVZ extends laterally beneath a strongly reflective Moho and is interpreted as a hydrated and mechanically weakened lower crust associated with bending-related faulting. Two additional, more localized LVZs are bounded by steeply dipping discontinuities that extend from the seafloor into the upper mantle, indicating deep fault zones capable of channeling fluids. Beneath the Moho, reduced seismic velocities in the uppermost mantle near the trench suggest significant serpentinization, consistent with the presence of bending-related faults and proximity to the subduction zone. Farther seaward, mantle velocities increase, indicating reduced hydration. A distinct high-velocity mantle domain is identified farther east, separated by sharp discontinuities that correlate with variations in Moho reflectivity and magnetic anomaly patterns.

Comparison with bathymetric and magnetic data reveals that deep seismic structures align with intersections of bending-related normal faults and abyssal-hill faults, as well as with a fossil propagating spreading center. These observations demonstrate that inherited tectonic fabric exerts a strong control on fault penetration depth, mantle hydration, and the crust–mantle architecture of the petit-spot volcanic province at the Japan Trench.

 

How to cite: Górszczyk, A. and Amirzadeh, Y.: Crust–Mantle Architecture of the Pacific Plate Beneath the Japan Trench Petit-Spot Province Revealed by Seismic Imaging and Magnetic Anomalies, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9390, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9390, 2026.

Surface wave dispersion data, encompassing both fundamental modes and higher overtones, provide powerful constraints on the thermochemical structure of the upper mantle and mantle transition zone. Fundamental modes are predominantly sensitive to shallow structures within the lithosphere and upper asthenosphere, whereas higher overtones sample progressively greater depths, offering enhanced sensitivity to the mantle transition zone and the uppermost lower mantle. The joint utilization of fundamental and overtone dispersion therefore enables improved resolution of key mantle features, including the 410 km and 660 km discontinuities, and variations in thermal and compositional structure across depth.

We carried out an extensive sensitivity analysis. The results demonstrate that both fundamental and overtone dispersion curves exhibit strong sensitivity to upper mantle structure, with particularly pronounced responses at the 660 km discontinuity, where our thermodynamic models predict sharp contrasts in seismic velocity and density. In the uppermost lower mantle, extending to depths of approximately 1500 km, fundamental modes are significantly affected only at long periods (>200 s), whereas higher overtones show substantial sensitivity across a broad period range (20–150 s) with different behaviour for Rayleigh and Love waves.

A new machine learning strategy embedded within a thermodynamically self-consistent geophysical–petrological framework allows us to efficiently link thermochemical crustal and mantle structure and surface wave dispersion data (fundamental mode and overtones) preserving physically consistent relationships among temperature, composition, seismic velocities, and density. The machine learning algorithm is incorporated into an inversion strategy to image lithospheric, asthenospheric, transition zone and uppermost lower mantle thermochemical structure accounting for the topography associated with the 410 km and 660 km mineral phase transitions in a consistent manner.

These results highlight the critical role of overtone data in complementing fundamental mode observations and demonstrate that machine learning–based imaging substantially enhances the resolution of mantle transition zone models, particularly when the uppermost lower mantle is incorporated consistently within thermochemical frameworks. The machine learning framework also facilitates the incorporation of complex, non-linear relationships between seismic data and thermochemical properties.

How to cite: Mousavi, N., Fullea, J., Lebedev, S., and Bonadio, R.: Machine Learning–Based Imaging of the Upper Mantle and Transition Zone Using Fundamental and Overtone Surface Wave Dispersion within an Integrated Geophysical–Petrological Framework, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9566, 2026.

EGU26-9628 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.2

2D Synthetic Wave Propagation Forward Modeling Toward High-Resolution Tomography of Mount Fuji 

Hesaneh Mohammadi, nobuaki Fuji, and Stéphanie Durand

High-resolution imaging of volcanic structures relies on accurate forward modeling of teleseismic
wavefields. In general, full waveform inversion requires global wavefield simulations, which are compu-
tationally expensive. To reduce this cost, localized waveform inversion or “box” waveform tomography
approaches have been developed. These methods compute the global wavefield once and inject the re-
sulting displacement and stress fields at the boundaries of a local region of interest. However, even
this initial global simulation can remain computationally demanding and depends on the choice of a
background model, such as one-dimensional or three-dimensional long-wavelength tomographic models.
Monteiller et al. (2021) have shown that this step can be significantly sped up by substituting the full
wavefield with a single plane wave, which is a valid approximation for teleseismic earthquakes. Moti-
vated by these results and in the context of Mount Fuji, we further simplify the forward modeling by
considering small regions, typically 100 × 100 × 50 km, a scale at which incoming teleseismic P waves
are expected to be close to planar at the boundaries. We present a series of synthetic experiments in
a two-dimensional Cartesian framework, placing seismic sources at various locations outside the study
region. We simulate wave propagation in background media defined by one-dimensional Earth models,
onto which two-dimensional slab-like perturbations are added. From the resulting wavefields, we esti-
mate slowness vectors and apparent velocities at the boundaries of the box and quantify deviations from
an ideal planar arrival, which allows us to assess the validity of the plane wave approximation. Thus,
we provide an efficient forward modeling strategy for high-resolution imaging of Mount Fuji and similar
volcanic systems. More generally, our results enable us to define practical criteria under which plane
wave injection can be justified.

How to cite: Mohammadi, H., Fuji, N., and Durand, S.: 2D Synthetic Wave Propagation Forward Modeling Toward High-Resolution Tomography of Mount Fuji, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9628, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9628, 2026.

Imaging the anisotropic shear-velocity structure of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system is key to understanding the Earth’s internal dynamics and the mechanics of plate tectonics, whose nature and working mechanism remain debated across the geosciences. Global tomography robustly resolves long-wavelength shear-velocity structure, but the uneven distribution of earthquake sources and receivers reduces the capacity of current methods to resolve short-wavelength and shallow structure. Ambient noise offers an independent dataset that provides complementary path coverage for investigating Earth’s structure and enhances our understanding of the physical nature of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system by improving resolution in regions that remain insufficiently resolved.

In this work, we use the Earth’s hum at 30-270 s periods to produce a global probabilistic model of the shear-wave velocity of the upper mantle and its uncertainties. We extract empirical Green’s functions from 1989-2004 continuous records at 389 broadband stations using the wavelet-phase cross-correlation and time-scale phase-weighted stacking. Then, frequency-time analysis and the spectral method yield 55615 R1 and 23467 R2 group-velocity, and 56539 R1 phase-velocity Rayleigh-wave dispersion curves, primarily on new paths. Finally, we solve the inversion problem using the two-step method, employing probabilistic continuous inverse theory to construct phase- and group-velocity maps in the regionalization step, and transdimensional inference for the depth inversion.

The phase and group velocity maps we obtain compare well with velocity maps derived from earthquakes. Similar velocity anomalies are observed at all periods, including the cratons, the African rift system and the Pacific belt, and the mid-ocean ridges. Given the strong complementarity between the ambient-noise and earthquake datasets, and the fact that the model derived from ambient noise alone is already accurate, a joint inversion has the potential to enhance the imaging of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system in global mantle models.

How to cite: Ventosa, S. and Bodin, T.: A global Bayesian seismic shear-wave velocity model of the upper-mantle using seismic hum, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9674, 2026.

EGU26-10056 | ECS | Orals | SM6.2

Lithospheric Structure of the Makran Subduction Zone and Central Asian Microcontinents Based on Surface Wave Analysis 

Mohsen Ahmadzadeh Irandoust, Chunquan Yu, Farhad Sobouti, and Keith Priestley

The Zagros–Himalaya collision zone is among the most active and structurally complex convergent boundaries on Earth, making it a critical region for investigating plate tectonics, mountain-building processes, and seismic hazards. Despite substantial research on segments of this belt, significant gaps persist, particularly in understudied areas such as the Makran subduction zone and Central Asian microcontinents. In this study, we developed a high-resolution 3D shear-wave velocity (Vs) model to investigate the lithospheric structure of the Makran subduction zone and Central Asia. We analyzed fundamental-mode Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion curves from regional earthquakes within the period range of 6.5–80 s. Variations in velocity gradients across the Vs model enabled the estimation of spatial changes in key lithospheric discontinuities, including the sediment–basement interface and the Moho depth. The thickest sedimentary layer (15–20 km) occurs in the Makran Accretionary Wedge. Additional thick basins (>10 km) include the Jazmurian and Mashkel Depressions, the Amu Darya-Tajik Basin, and the southwestern Helmand Block. The thinnest continental crust (35–40 km) occurs beneath the Lut and Helmand Blocks that are surrounded by thicker, highly deformed crust (50–65 km) in the Zagros Collisional Belt and the Hindu Kush Mountains. The oceanic Moho depth beneath the Arabian Plate, within the Makran Accretionary Wedge, ranges from 20 to 30 km. The subduction angle of the Arabian slab steepens beneath the southern margins of the Jazmurian and Mashkel Depressions, reaching depths greater than 60 km beneath the Bazman–Sultan Volcanic Arc. Dominant low-Vs anomalies in the Hindu Kush and Central Asian regions indicate uppermost mantle deformation resulting from the ongoing convergence between the Arabian, Indian, and Eurasian Plates.

How to cite: Ahmadzadeh Irandoust, M., Yu, C., Sobouti, F., and Priestley, K.: Lithospheric Structure of the Makran Subduction Zone and Central Asian Microcontinents Based on Surface Wave Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10056, 2026.

EGU26-10603 | ECS | Orals | SM6.2

High-resolution Vp/Vs Tomography of the Crust and Uppermost Mantle beneath South China 

Guifang Zhang and Haijiang Zhang

Compared to separate Vp and Vs models, Vp/Vs model is more sensitive to fuilds, melts and rock compositions. For south China, many studies have created Vp and Vs models of different resolutions, but no high-resolution Vp/Vs models are available. In this study, to better constrain tectonics and presence of fluids and melts in the south China lithosphere, especially the control of lithospheric structure on the formation of metal minerals, we adopt a modified double-difference seismic tomography method for directly inverting for Vp/Vs using body wave P and S arrival times.  We assembled earthquake arrival times recorded by the China Seismic Network (CSN) between 2008 and 2018. A total of 25,023 earthquakes were analyzed within the study region (107°–123°E, 18°–35°N), recorded by 1,998 seismic stations. After strict quality control and phase picking by the deep-learning based USTCPicker that is retrained from PhaseNet, 617,143 P-wave and 583,628 S-wave arrival times were obtained. In addition, more than 14 million P- and S-wave differential travel times were constructed from event pairs recorded at common stations, providing strong constraints for earthquake locations and velocity structures around the source region.

The inversion started from the USTClitho2.0 lithospheric model, and the inversion is parameterized on a three-dimensional grid extending from the surface to 180 km depth with grid intervals of 1° in latitude and longitude. After 14 iterations, the root-mean-square travel-time residual is reduced from 1.59 s to 0.17 s, indicating a substantial improvement in data fit. Checkerboard resolution tests demonstrate that the Vp/Vs structure is well resolved throughout most of the crust and the uppermost mantle down to ~80 km depth. At the depth of 20 km, wide-spread high Vp/Vs values are imaged in the Jiangnan orogen. Which is consistent with the reworked crust regime delineated by medium zircon Hf isotope values. At the depth of 40 km, high Vp/Vs values are mostly distributed in the southeastern Cathaysia block and along the southeast coast, corresponding to juvenile crustal domain with high zircon Hf isotope values. These correlations indicate that the reworked crust mainly occurs in the middle curst while juvenile crust happens in the lower crust. These different processes actually have some control on the formation of different metal ores. Overall, the resulting Vp/Vs model offers new insights into the distribution of fluids, lithological variations, and tectonic processes in south China.

How to cite: Zhang, G. and Zhang, H.: High-resolution Vp/Vs Tomography of the Crust and Uppermost Mantle beneath South China, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10603, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10603, 2026.

We derive a regional 1-D attenuation (Q–1) model for the Dead Sea fault using moderate earthquakes (3.5 ≤ MW ≤ 4.5). QP and QS are estimated through spectral modeling of stations within 300 km, with corner frequencies independently constrained by the empirical Green’s function method to reduce parameter trade-offs. Q values are averaged across channels to examine distance dependence. We find a linear increase in Q with distance for both P and S waves, flattening beyond ~150 km, consistent with a crust–mantle phase transition. Deviations from this trend highlight low-Q zones along the plate boundary, associated with sedimentary basins. These results emphasize the crustal heterogeneity of the region and provide a foundation for future 3-D attenuation models.

How to cite: Wetzler, N. and J. Chaves, E.: Determination of regional attenuation using moderate earthquakes at the Dead Sea fault system, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12393, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12393, 2026.

EGU26-12638 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.2

Shear-Wave Velocity Models of the Subsurface Critical Zone at Mpala, Kenya, from Ambient Noise 

Emerald Awuor, Chenyu Li, Hasbi Shiddiqi, Laura Parisi, and P. Martin Mai

In this study, we develop 1D shallow subsurface velocity profiles from one year of ambient-noise measurements collected at the Mpala Research Centre, a nature and wildlife preservation area in Laikipia County, Kenya. The Mpala Research Centre is located in a rangeland shared by wildlife, livestock, and people, and experienced extreme drought in 2023. Water access in such times depends largely on shallow wells that are influenced by subsurface hydrogeology. In addition, there is growing interest in seismic wildlife monitoring based on interpreting ground-coupled animal vibrations whose amplitudes and dominant frequencies are shaped by local site effects. Both issues point to the need for information on the shallow subsurface structure. Mapping site specific shear-wave velocities (Vs) provides a common foundation to (i) relate stratigraphy to shallow groundwater availability and (ii) correct for spatial variability in amplification that biases wildlife signal detectability.

Motivated by these needs, we develop the first locally constrained Vs models in the Mpala area based on continuous seismic data (Jan 2023–Jan 2024) across a 15 broadband station array using ambient noise HVSR and passive seismic interferometry. The HVSR and Rayleigh wave dispersion measurements from the two methods are jointly inverted. The dispersion curves’ frequency band (≈ 2–9 Hz) provides depth sensitivity of ∼70–430 m, while HVSR constrains near-surface impedance contrasts. Across the station network, we estimate three consistent velocity contrasts in the upper 100 m, first at ∼ 1–4 m (Vs ∼ 280–500 m/s), then at ∼5–20 m (Vs ∼ 345–900 m/s), and finally at ∼ 15–50 m (Vs ∼ 1160–2600 m/s). The resulting Vs models support well siting and inform how to account for local site-amplifications effects for monitoring and modeling ground-coupled wildlife sensing at Mpala. For future work we recommend multi-scale seismic array configurations with both locally denser and targeted wider spacing to more reliably estimate both shallow depths and the overall geological structure. Improved dispersion-curve measurements help reduce uncertainty arising from the limited dispersion band, uneven station pair coverage, and capture possible lateral heterogeneity.

How to cite: Awuor, E., Li, C., Shiddiqi, H., Parisi, L., and Mai, P. M.: Shear-Wave Velocity Models of the Subsurface Critical Zone at Mpala, Kenya, from Ambient Noise, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12638, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12638, 2026.

EGU26-13543 | ECS | Orals | SM6.2

The Virtual Receiver Approach: Probing the Internal Structure of Large Low-Seismic-Velocity Provinces 

Chahana Nagesh, Rafael Abreu, and Mariano S. Arnaiz-Rodríguez
Understanding the internal structure of the Large Low-Seismic-Velocity Provinces (LLSVPs) is crucial for deciphering the convection system of the lower mantle. However, the exact origin, nature, and composition of the LLSVPs remain a subject of ongoing debate. Existing techniques, such as seismic tomography, have been highly successful in imaging large-scale structures of the Earth's mantle, including long-wave shear wave velocity anomalies, the geometries of subducting slabs, and the global extent of the LLSVPs. However, these techniques are less sensitive to small-scale variations and sharp lateral transitions, especially in the lower mantle, which makes it challenging to explore fine-scale heterogeneities and internal complexities. The newly developed Virtual Receiver Approach (VRA) provides a complementary framework to address these limitations by sampling velocity fields at depth using teleseismic data, thereby enabling the detection of subtle and spatially confined anomalies. VRA is a technique that leverages travel-time differences between closely spaced seismic stations to directly estimate local absolute velocities, independent of assumed Earth models. This independence from pre-assumed velocity structures provides a unique opportunity to investigate deep Earth features with minimal bias.
 
This study develops the mathematical framework for VRA and provides theoretical validation. Synthetic tests confirm the robustness of this approach. To test its application to real-world data, VRA was applied to teleseismic travel times of transversely polarised SH waves, while focusing on events with turning points located in the circum-Pacific region. A scatter of local velocity measurements beneath the Pacific Ocean, sampling the lower mantle, was obtained. Overlaying these on existing tomographic maps allowed for identification of significant features, such as the LLSVP boundaries, the Galapagos plume, and low- and high-velocity anomalies within the LLSVP. Though the majority of results agreed with the well-known slower nature of S-wave velocities inside the LLSVPs, distinct high-velocity anomalies were also observed. Results from petrological modelling suggest a correlation between these high-velocity anomalies and low FeO content, which potentially indicates the inclusion of post-perovskite material into the LLSVP through mantle convection. On the other hand, these could also be remnants of old subducted oceanic crust. High-velocity anomalies thus observed indicate lateral compositional variation within the LLSVP, making them more complex and heterogeneous than previously thought. 
 
The study demonstrates the potential of VRA as a high-resolution imaging tool. Ongoing studies aim to extend the current isotropic medium used in VRA to incorporate anisotropic properties, thereby enhancing its reliability and accuracy. The method's sensitivity to various properties is also under study. Such developments of newer and higher-resolution methods are crucial for furthering our understanding of deep Earth processes. 

How to cite: Nagesh, C., Abreu, R., and S. Arnaiz-Rodríguez, M.: The Virtual Receiver Approach: Probing the Internal Structure of Large Low-Seismic-Velocity Provinces, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13543, 2026.

EGU26-13694 | ECS | Orals | SM6.2

Early-Arrival 3D Acoustic Full Waveform Inversion at the Asse II Repository: A Case Study 

Arash Rezaei, Lars Houpt, and Thomas Bohlen

Reliable geological characterization is critical for the safety assessment and planned waste retrieval at the Asse II nuclear repository in Germany. Conventional seismic imaging provides structural information but lacks the resolution needed to resolve detailed variations in velocity. In this study, we apply 3D acoustic full waveform inversion (FWI) to a high-fold, wide-azimuth land seismic dataset acquired over the Asse II site. To reduce nonlinearity and cycle skipping, we focus on an early-arrival FWI strategy targeting refracted and diving waves, combined with careful data conditioning and a multiscale frequency inversion workflow. The inversion uses a First-arrival time tomography (FATT) P-wave velocity model as the initial model and inverts frequencies from 8 to 20 Hz. Gradient preconditioning, source wavelet estimation, offset muting and windowing are applied to stabilize convergence. The resulting 3D velocity model provides improved resolution and is consistent with the initial the established geological horizons of the area. These results provide a promising velocity model for our future investigations such as elastic FWI and support mine stability analysis, and long-term safety assessment of the Asse II repository.

How to cite: Rezaei, A., Houpt, L., and Bohlen, T.: Early-Arrival 3D Acoustic Full Waveform Inversion at the Asse II Repository: A Case Study, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13694, 2026.

Despite extensive studies have documented the structural styles of shallow thrust-nappe belts in the upper crust, the role of deep-seated inherited structures in foreland thrust evolution remains poorly constrained. This knowledge gap hinders in-depth investigations into the deep-shallow structural relationships and contact patterns between tectonic units in basin-range junction belt. The southern Tian Shan margin features extensive nappe-thrust belts with diverse deformation styles over >1000 km, offering an ideal natural laboratory to investigate this issue. We conducted a high-resolution crustal structure study in the southern margin of the western Tianshan, revealing the deep-shallow deformation architecture of the foreland thrust-nappe system. Three distinct units are identified: (1) The northern Tarim Basin exhibits high seismic velocities with a crustal thickness of ~45-48 km, where its lower crust intrudes into the Kashi fold-and-thrust belt (FTB); (2) Kashi FTB exhibits a crustal thickness of 53-70 km and is characterized by pronounced mid-lower crustal low-velocity zones (LVZs), indicating crustal thickening. The lower crust beneath northern Kashi FTB underthrust northward beneath the Tian Shan. (3) The southern Tian Shan margin has a crustal thickness of ~60 km, with velocity and discontinuity structures distinct from those in the Kashi FTB. The LVZ beneath the Kashi FTB not only accommodates significant crustal shortening but also facilitates the development of piedmont thrust-nappe structures. By serving as a detachment zone, it drives southward propagation of the nappes toward the northern Tarim Basin, forming basement-cored anticlines. Our findings reveal the complex crustal architecture of the southwestern Tian Shan,  demonstrating that inherited structures control the formation and evolution of piedmont thrust-nappe tectonics.

How to cite: Chen, Y.: Deep crustal structure controls the deformation style of the foreland fold-and-thrust belt in south Tian Shan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15526, 2026.

Tectonic tremors in subduction zones are commonly attributed to shear slip along the plate interface, but their potential link to fluid processes in the overriding crust remains debated. Here, we apply a novel elastic reverse-time migration method to teleseismic waveforms recorded by a quasi-linear dense seismic array in central Mexico to image subsurface fluid pathways with unprecedented resolution. Our results reveal two vertically oriented discontinuities featured with negative amplitudes—interpreted as low-velocity fluid-filled fracture networks—that connect the subducting Cocos slab to tremor source regions in the overriding plate to facilitate fluid migration upwards from slab dehydration. These fracture zones are spatially correlated with both northern and southern tremor clusters of the well-known “sweet spot.” It is also observed that some tremors have harmonic spectra, further supporting they are related to fluid resonance in the fracture zones of overriding plate. The findings demonstrate that crustal fractures, not only interface slip, govern tremor generation in weakly coupled flat slab systems. These findings redefine fluid-mediated tremor mechanisms in this flat-slab subduction zone and make it necessary to reassess seismic hazards in regions where deep fluid fluxes interact with overriding plate faults.

How to cite: Zou, P., Cheng, J., Zhang, H., and Wang, T.: Teleseismic Imaging Reveals Fluid Pathways Governing Tectonic Tremor Genesis in the Central Mexico Flat-Slab Subduction Zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15823, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15823, 2026.

EGU26-16537 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.2

Seismic Imaging of the Crust and Upper Mantle beneath Taiwan Using Full-Waveform Inversion of Teleseismic Body Waves 

Li-Yu Kan, Hao Kuo-Chen, Sebastien Chevrot, and Vadim Monteiller

The tectonics of Taiwan are characterized by the complex convergence of the Philippine Sea Plate (PSP) and the Eurasian Plate (EP). While the general orogenic structure is known, resolving the detailed morphology of the subducting slabs, the forearc basement, and shallow volcanic reservoir systems remains challenging with classical travel-time tomography. Here, we present high-resolution 3-D tomographic models of density, VP, VS, and the VP/VS ratio of Taiwan, obtained by inverting complete teleseismic waveforms from 36 P and 18 SH events. We utilized data from 240 broadband stations, including those from permanent networks and temporary experiments. In our final FWI model, the Eurasian slab is imaged as a continuous eastward-dipping high-velocity anomaly in southern Taiwan but exhibits a distinct slab gap north of 23.6°N at depths greater than 130 km. This discontinuity likely facilitates toroidal mantle flow around the slab edge, consistent with geodynamic models. A high-velocity body in the upper crust along the eastern Central Range is interpreted as the underthrusted forearc basement. Our model also identifies distinct low-velocity, high VP/VS bodies beneath the Tatun Volcano Group (TVG) and Turtle Island, indicative of crustal magma reservoirs. The reservoir beneath the TVG appears dome-shaped with an apex at ~6 km depth, while the reservoir beneath Turtle Island is volumetrically larger and connects to a hydrated mantle wedge, suggesting a fluid-rich magmatic source. These findings provide new constraints on the tectonic evolution, slab dynamics, and volcanic structures in Taiwan, and highlight the potential of teleseismic FWI for crust and upper-mantle imaging.

How to cite: Kan, L.-Y., Kuo-Chen, H., Chevrot, S., and Monteiller, V.: Seismic Imaging of the Crust and Upper Mantle beneath Taiwan Using Full-Waveform Inversion of Teleseismic Body Waves, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16537, 2026.

To understand the implication of geodynamics in intercontinental subduction of Indian plate and Burmese plate, sediment deposits in the North-East India, Indo-Burma Ranges (IBR) and surrounding regions, a better resolved image is needed to interpret the findings. The structure and geodynamics in North-East India and surrounding region are studied using the fundamental mode rayleigh wave group velocity tomography. As there is a good coverage of stations in and around the region resulting in dense source-receiver pair ray cross paths, we get a better resolution than previously reported studies. The tomographic results show thicker sediments in Bengal Basin thins from west to east and crustal nature varies from north to south as continental to oceanic. The southern IBR shows consistent lower group wave velocity at all periods. Comparing both Bengal Basin and IBR, the velocity variation reveals about the oblique subduction of Indian plate below the Burmese plate. The Shillong Plateau and Mikir hills show low velocity at lower periods, but at higher periods it exhibits high velocity indicating presence of sediments in upper layers.
 
We present preliminary constraints on crustal structure beneath the Indo-Burma Ranges (IBR) using receiver functions from the IK (IISER Kolkata) and XR (BIMA) seismic network. Stacked radial receiver functions from these stations yield clear Ps and multiple phases, allowing stable H–κ estimates. Crustal thickness and Vp/Vs variation indicates notable heterogeneity in along East-West and North-South trend of IBR. Thicker crust in the central IBR and comparatively thinner crust towards the frontal zone likely reflect variations in deformation, composition and Indian plate – IBR convergence dynamics. These first order results provide essential inputs for upcoming high resolution imaging of the region.

How to cite: Sahu, S. and Borah, K.: Crustal Structure and Geodynamic Implications of the Indo-Burma Ranges and Surrounding Regions from Surface Wave Tomography and Receiver Function Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16910, 2026.

EGU26-17055 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.2

Love Wave group Velocity tomography and Seismic b-Value Analysis of Northeast India 

Madhu Kumari, Sabyasachi Sahu, and Kajaljyoti Borah

Northeast India is among the most seismically vulnerable regions of the world due to its complex tectonic framework, high population density, and the presence of thick sedimentary layers that can strongly amplify seismic waves. As a result, even moderate earthquakes may cause substantial damage. Previous surface wave investigations in this region have been largely restricted to Rayleigh wave tomography. In this study, we present the first high resolution Love wave tomography of Northeast India, providing new insights into the shear wave velocity structure of the crust and upper mantle. Love wave dispersion data are used to derive one–dimensional (1D) shear wave velocity models, which are subsequently combined to construct a three dimensional (3D) shear wave velocity model of the region. The reliability of the imaged structures is evaluated through resolution analysis to ensure that observed velocity variations represent realistic subsurface features. Because Rayleigh and Love waves are sensitive to different components of shear wave velocity, discrepancies between their velocity structures are used to investigate radial anisotropy within the lithosphere. The combined analysis of Rayleigh and Love wave results provides important constraints on the anisotropic properties of the crust and upper mantle and their tectonic significance.

In addition to structural imaging, we assess the seismic hazard of Northeast India through estimation of the Gutenberg–Richter b–value, which reflects the relative occurrence of small and large earthquakes. The calculated b–values indicate generally high tectonic stress and an elevated potential for large earthquakes across the region. Within the Indo–Burma Ranges (IBR), the southern, central, and northern segments all exhibit b–values below 1.0, suggesting significant seismic hazard. The Mikir Hills show notably low b–values, lower than those reported in earlier studies, whereas the Shillong Plateau records b–values consistent with previous estimates. A depth dependent analysis reveals pronounced changes in b–values at specific depths, which appear to correlate with the Moho discontinuity. In the IBR, a marked transition occurs at approximately 50 km depth, while similar changes are observed at ~30 km beneath the Mikir Hills and ~35 km beneath the Shillong Plateau. These observations suggest a strong relationship between seismicity patterns and the crust–mantle boundary, highlighting the role of lithospheric structure in controlling earthquake generation.

Overall, this study integrates high resolution Love wave tomography with seismicity analysis to advance our understanding of the subsurface structure, radial anisotropy, and seismic hazard of Northeast India, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring and improved earthquake preparedness in this tectonically active region.

How to cite: Kumari, M., Sahu, S., and Borah, K.: Love Wave group Velocity tomography and Seismic b-Value Analysis of Northeast India, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17055, 2026.

EGU26-17111 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.2

High-resolution seismic imaging of the Koillismaa Layered Igneous Complex, Northern Finland 

Brij Singh, Andrzej Gόrszczyk, Michał Malinowski, and Tuomo Karinen

The demand for raw materials has scaled exponentially in recent times due to their applications in various areas, including finished goods, energy, electronics, and lithium-ion batteries. The Koillismaa Layered Igneous Complex (KLIC) in northern Finland holds great potential to host several critical raw materials such as cobalt, nickel, PGEs, etc. It is a mafic-ultramafic complex spanning over a distance of ~50-60 km and is linked by a high gravity and magnetic anomaly. Drilling in the area confirmed the presence of ultramafic rocks at a depth of ~1.4 km from the surface. Extensive petrophysical and lab studies were conducted, and a preliminary Common Earth Model (CEM) was made mainly based on the potential field data inversion with constraints from the borehole. Two regional 2D seismic profiles were acquired under the ERA-MIN 3 sponsored SEEMS DEEP Project (2022-2025) with the aim to map the regional seismic reflectivity in the area and to constrain the geometrical architecture of the KLIC. The processing of the 2D seismic data followed the standard workflow, e.g., dip-moveout followed by the post-stack time migration with constant velocity. This procedure is effective for simple geological settings, i.e., with gentle dips. In the case of KLIC, the subsurface geology is structurally complex; therefore a transition from the standard time-domain imaging to the depth-domain imaging is required. One of the main challenge in doing this is the unavailability of a robust velocity model. We used first-arrival traveltime tomography (FATT) and acoustic Full Waveform Inversion (FWI) to build the high-resolution velocity model. We used the steepest-descent optimization algorithm, optimal-transport objective function, and inverted for the P-waves only using the vertical-component data. The depth details for the FATT-derived velocity model were limited to a few tens of meters from the surface as compared to ~1 km for the FWI-derived velocity model. For migration, we performed prestack Kirchhoff depth migration (KPreSDM) with both FATT- and FWI-derived velocity models. In the latter case, we did not observe much uplift in terms of the overall imaging, partially may be due to the lesser sensitivity of the ray-based KPreSDM towards the input velocity model and limited velocity details with depth. Therefore, we also tested least-square KPreSDM to obtain the depth image with better amplitude fidelity. We then tested wave-equation based Reverse Time Migration (RTM) due to its ability to better handle the complex media using both the derived velocity models. RTM with FWI-derived velocity model provided us with the best imaging overall until a depth of ~5-6 km, establishing the merit of these advanced methods for high-resolution seismic imaging of the geologically complex settings such as the KLIC. The obtained results showed good correlation with the available petrophysical data, observed gravity & magnetic highs, available CEM, and the controlled source electromagnetics-derived resistivity model, which was also acquired during the SEESM DEEP project. Overthrusting with regional-scale faults was imaged, and a funnel-shaped geometry of the KLIC was established. Seismic imaging also suggested a more structural or compositional heterogeneity within the mafic-ultramafic KLIC body.

How to cite: Singh, B., Gόrszczyk, A., Malinowski, M., and Karinen, T.: High-resolution seismic imaging of the Koillismaa Layered Igneous Complex, Northern Finland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17111, 2026.

EGU26-17818 | Posters on site | SM6.2

Coupled Numerical Simulation of Teleseismic Wave Propagation Incorporating Local Structural Features 

Aida Hejazi Nooghabi, Anjali Dhabu, Vadim Monteiller, Nicolas Matthießen, and Céline Hadziioannou

Tomography and full waveform inversion studies are dependent on synthetic datasets. However, simulating teleseismic wave propagation in 3D remains computationally challenging, particularly when small-scale local structure is incorporated into the model. To overcome this issue, a range of strategies - including hybrid methods and coupling techniques - have been explored in recent years.

In this work, we evaluate RegHyM, an open-source package that couples AxiSEM with SPECFEM3D. Previous work using the package has demonstrated the feasibility of simulating P waves from explosive sources, but this has not been systematically validated. To expand the range of applications of the package for seismological studies, we model body and surface waves for earthquake sources and compare the synthetic waveforms with observed seismological data. In the present work, high-resolution 3D regional models are developed numerically accounting for surface topography and 3D velocity model. Simulations are carried out for the Alpine region as the region is not only seismically active but also hosts a widespread network of seismic stations with openly available data. Moreover, the region has been explicitly explored in the past to determine subsurface velocity models. The synthetic data simulated for different earthquakes is then validated through systematic comparison with real data up to frequency of 0.1 Hz.

In addition, we further extended the package to record spatial gradients of the wavefield, including strains and rotations, and present successful cases of these new capabilities within RegHyM. The complete package, now accompanied by a user manual, enables regional and teleseismic wave propagation at reduced computational cost, while preserving the detailed structure of the 3D local model.

Future work will focus on extending the validation of the package to telesismic wave propagation at higher frequencies and assessing the reliability of the synthetic surface waves through comparisons with seismological data.

 

How to cite: Hejazi Nooghabi, A., Dhabu, A., Monteiller, V., Matthießen, N., and Hadziioannou, C.: Coupled Numerical Simulation of Teleseismic Wave Propagation Incorporating Local Structural Features, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17818, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17818, 2026.

EGU26-18888 | ECS | Orals | SM6.2

Thermal structure of the lithosphere across Africa and its controls on the generation of carbonated igneous rocks and primary mineral deposits 

Siyuan Sui, Yihe Xu, Sergei Lebedev, Emilie Bowman, Javier Fullea, and Sally Gibson

Understanding how deep lithospheric processes govern the formation and distribution of critical raw materials is essential for supporting the energy transition. Carbonated mantle-derived magmas, particularly carbonatites, are the primary hosts of rare earth elements (REE) and critical metals such as Nb and Ta. Yet, the subsurface conditions that control their generation and emplacement remain unclear and are debated. Here, we present a continent-scale study linking lithospheric thermal structure, carbonated rocks, and primary mineral deposits across Africa.

We integrate state-of-the-art seismic tomography models with thermodynamic inversion (Lebedev et al. 2024; Xu et al. 2025) to construct a high-resolution (1° × 1°) temperature model of the African lithosphere and upper mantle down to 400 km depth. The map of the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB), defined by the 1290 °C isotherm, reveals the regional-scale structure of thick cratonic roots and lithospheric thinning beneath areas of rifting and basaltic volcanism.

Comparisons with extensive compilations of mantle-derived igneous rocks reveal a systematic relationship between the lithospheric thickness and magma composition: basalt (66.1 ± 21.27 km), nephelinite and melilitite (97.1 ± 33.00 km), carbonatite (126.2 ± 43.36 km) and kimberlite (184.4 ± 44.90 km; both diamondiferous and barren). The new thermal model and the lithospheric thickness-magmatism relationship also provide insights into the distribution of primary mineral deposits. The known REE and critical metal (i.e. Nb, Ta) deposits in Africa are found to have similar LAB depths (120.9 ± 42.42, 123.6 ± 30.75 km, respectively) to that of locations with carbonatites. LAB depth of known diamond mines (192.0 ± 42.67 km) is similar to that of kimberlites in general.

The consistency between the average mantle geotherms for each rock type and the lab-measured pressure-temperature (P-T) conditions of carbonated peridotite melt generation confirms and cross-validates the models of mantle temperature and those of the origin of the magmatism (e.g., Gibson et al. 2024). Our results highlight the role of the lithospheric thermal architecture in controlling deep carbonated fluid–melt systems and associated critical raw materials, providing a geophysically grounded framework for targeting future exploration.

References

Gibson, S., McKenzie, D. and Lebedev, S., 2024. The distribution and generation of carbonatites. Geology, 52(9), 667-671.

Lebedev, S., Fullea, J., Xu, Y. and Bonadio, R., 2024. Seismic thermography. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 114(3), 1227-1242.

Xu, Y., Lebedev, S. and Fullea, J., 2025. Average physical structure of cratonic lithosphere, from thermodynamic inversion of global surface-wave data. Mineralogy and Petrology, 119,  811–822.

 

How to cite: Sui, S., Xu, Y., Lebedev, S., Bowman, E., Fullea, J., and Gibson, S.: Thermal structure of the lithosphere across Africa and its controls on the generation of carbonated igneous rocks and primary mineral deposits, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18888, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18888, 2026.

First-arrival traveltime and slope tomography has been routinely applied to velocity imaging of marine seismic data, particularly for ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) surveys. However, strong seafloor undulations and the presence of a water layer introduce significant challenges for accurate traveltime modeling and reliable imaging of shallow subsurface structures. In particular, wave propagation through the water layer can substantially degrade seismic illumination and, consequently, reduce the resolution of sedimentary layers beneath the seafloor. In this study, we develop a topography-dependent first-arrival traveltime and slope tomography method based on a body-fitted curvilinear grid that explicitly accounts for complex seafloor topography. The subsurface velocity structure is inverted using first-arrival waves of OBS data, enabling robust imaging of the shallow crust beneath irregular bathymetry. To mitigate the adverse effects of the water layer, we further incorporate a redatuming strategy, in which observed data are downward continued to a virtual receiver surface located at the seafloor. This approach effectively suppresses water-layer interference and enhances subsurface illumination. Synthetic checkerboard tests demonstrate that redatuming significantly improves the recovery of velocity anomalies, particularly in shallow sedimentary layers where conventional slope tomography suffers from limited resolution. We further apply the proposed method to the GO_3D_OBS benchmark model. The results show a clear enhancement in the resolution and accuracy of shallow velocity structures after redatuming, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed workflow for OBS seismic imaging in the presence of complex bathymetry.

How to cite: Zhou, X., Gorszczyk, A., and Guo, G.: Topography-dependent first-arrival traveltime and slope tomography with redatuming for improved velocity imaging: applied to ocean-bottom seismometer data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18891, 2026.

EGU26-18960 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.2

Reflectivity Imaging and Impedance Inversion of Seismic Data from the Outer-Rise Area of the Japan Trench 

Yousef Amirzadeh, Andrzej Górszczyk, and Brij Singh

The geological structure of the Japan Trench outer-rise is complex due to the deformation of the subducting oceanic crust. This region underwent structural modification due to subduction-related plate flexure, which facilitated the development of bending-related faults and the formation of petit-spot volcanoes. These tectono-magmatic processes increased fracturing, hydration, and porosity and decreased the continuity of reflectors, all of which adversely affect seismic wave propagation. Additionally, the emplacement of these magmatic features, such as dikes and sills, introduces structural heterogeneities that scatter seismic energy, making the seismic imaging of this geological setting difficult.

In this study, we investigate the upper crustal structure of the oceanic plate at the Japan Trench outer-rise using two-dimensional multichannel seismic (MCS) reflection data acquired by JAMSTEC during cruise KR15-07 with a 6 km long, 444-channel streamer. The study area has a water depth of approximately 6 km, and this deep-water setting, combined with the limited streamer length, restricted offset coverage, and posed significant challenges for seismic reflector imaging in the upper oceanic crust.

The first goal of this study is to determine the depth of the sedimentary layers and to identify normal faults associated with the subduction of the oceanic plate. To achieve this, we first apply standard processing steps and prestack time migration, followed by the prestack depth migration to obtain the final reflectivity model.

As a second objective, we estimate an acoustic impedance model from the migrated reflectivity section using a regularized inversion framework. Acoustic impedance is known as an identifier of the subsurface properties that are related to lithology, porosity, pore filling, and other factors that characterize the subsurface. The problem of estimating acoustic impedance using reflection series data can be expressed as an inverse problem. In our case, the inversion incorporates a combined Tikhonov–Total Variation (TV) regularization scheme, optimized for reconstructing piecewise-smooth models. This formulation decomposes the impedance model into a smooth component, constrained by Tikhonov regularization, and a blocky component, constrained by the TV regularization. This hybrid approach mitigated the limitations of individual regularization methods.

According to the obtained results from reflectivity and the acoustic impedance models, bending-related normal faulting and petit-spot volcanism significantly modify the upper crust, producing strong lateral heterogeneities within the sedimentary section.

How to cite: Amirzadeh, Y., Górszczyk, A., and Singh, B.: Reflectivity Imaging and Impedance Inversion of Seismic Data from the Outer-Rise Area of the Japan Trench, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18960, 2026.

EGU26-19041 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.2

Combined inversion of active and passive seismic data based on optimized data point selection 

Kathrin Behnen, Hansruedi Maurer, Marian Hertrich, and Domenico Giardini

An accurate velocity model of the subsurface is required for many different applications and settings. Active and passive seismic data can both be used to derive meaningful seismic tomograms, but combining the two data sets remains challenging. In contrast to active seismic data, the hypocentral parameters of passive seismic data are not known and need to be considered during tomographic inversions.

Both, active and passive data sets have individual advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, combining them can be beneficial for obtaining a reliable velocity model. The spatial resolution and coverage of active seismic measurements can be tailored to specific applications and research questions, allowing targeted illumination of selected parts of the volume of interest with often relatively homogeneous ray density. However, the positioning of active sources and receivers is restricted to boreholes or the surface. In contrast, passive seismic data typically covers a larger volume and can illuminate regions that may not be accessible with active seismics, but the ray coverage of passive seismic data is often more heterogeneous, since seismic events commonly occur along fracture zones, leading to clustered source locations.

In our study, we show that a combined inversion of both data sets is feasible and allows their advantages to be exploited. The constraint provided by the active seismic data enables an iterative inversion of passive seismic source locations and seismic velocities using both data sets simultaneously. To combine the two data sets in a balanced and complementary way, we select only a subset of the passive seismic data for the inversion. This is achieved through a QR decomposition of the Jacobian, which ranks the information content of the passive seismic data relative to the information already provided by the active data set, thereby ensuring optimal complementarity. The method also enables an assessment of the appropriate amount of additional data to include in the inversion, helping to avoid overweighting densely sampled grid cells.

We apply this method to data from the BedrettoLab, an underground rock laboratory that serves as a testbed for geothermal injection experiments. From this test site, high-quality active and passive seismic data are available on a hectometer scale. With our approach, we increase the covered volume of the reservoir by a factor of 3 compared to the coverage purely based on active seismic data. We relocate the seismic events after each iteration, taking varying source locations due to the updated velocity model into account in the inversion. We further compare our results with a random data selection of passive seismic data, highlighting the importance of the optimized data selection, to maximize the illuminated volume.

How to cite: Behnen, K., Maurer, H., Hertrich, M., and Giardini, D.: Combined inversion of active and passive seismic data based on optimized data point selection, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19041, 2026.

EGU26-19051 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.2

An Efficient Dual-Space Formulation for Robust Crustal-Scale Full-Waveform Inversion 

Mahdi Sonbolestan, Toktam Zand, and Ali Gholami

Full-waveform inversion (FWI) has emerged as a powerful tool for high-resolution seismic imaging. However, its application to crustal-scale and long-offset problems remains severely challenged by strong nonlinearity arising from long propagation paths, pronounced velocity contrasts, and the lack of sufficiently low-frequency data. These factors exacerbate cycle skipping and often cause gradient-based optimization methods to stagnate. In practice, crustal-scale FWI is predominantly performed within the standard reduced-space time-domain formulation, largely due to its favorable memory requirements and the efficiency of time-stepping schemes for solving large-scale wave equations. Nevertheless, this memory efficiency comes at the cost of increased ill-conditioning of the inverse problem, which is difficult to address adequately within the reduced-space framework.

Extended-space formulations based on Lagrange multiplier methods have proven effective in alleviating ill-conditioning and mitigating cycle skipping in FWI. However, time-domain implementations of these multiplier-based approaches for large-scale crustal imaging can be computationally demanding, primarily due to the cost associated with constructing and inverting the data-space Hessian. Recent developments employing Fourier-domain block-diagonal approximations and direct inversion strategies have improved the tractability of time-domain extended FWI. Despite these advances, the approach remains computationally intensive for realistic crustal-scale applications, as the Hessian must typically be recomputed at each iteration.

In this work, we introduce a dual-space formulation that recasts the inversion in the data space to estimation data-side Lagrange multipliers, or dual variables. These variables encode the multiple-scattering components of the data that are neglected in the conventional first-order Born approximation. Unlike standard FWI approaches, which iteratively update the velocity model to reduce data misfit, the proposed method focuses on estimating the dual variables responsible for the mismatch while keeping the background model fixed. Once these dual variables are estimated, the data are matched and the inverse problem is effectively solved. A key advantage of this formulation is that the wave-equation operators and the associated Hessian remain fixed throughout the inversion and therefore need to be constructed only once prior to the iterations. As a result, each iteration requires only two wave-equation solves. Moreover, the use of the exact Hessian eliminates the need for step-length tuning and leads to more stable and accurate updates.

Numerical experiments on large-scale acoustic models demonstrate that the proposed method achieves rapid convergence, enhanced robustness against cycle skipping, and computational efficiency suitable for crustal-scale time-domain seismic imaging.

How to cite: Sonbolestan, M., Zand, T., and Gholami, A.: An Efficient Dual-Space Formulation for Robust Crustal-Scale Full-Waveform Inversion, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19051, 2026.

EGU26-19234 | ECS | Orals | SM6.2

Mantle Structure beneath East Asia from Seismic Full-Waveform Inversion: Implications for Tibetan Plateau Growth and Western Pacific Subduction 

Jincheng Ma, Xiaodong Song, Hans-Peter Bunge, and Andreas Fichtner

We have successfully developed a continental-scale multiparameter full-waveform tomographic model for China and adjacent areas, employing over 500,000 unique source-receiver pairs. Our model makes possible comprehensive characterization of structural heterogeneities within the lithosphere, asthenosphere, and mantle transition zone beneath this large region.  Here, we provide detailed tectonic interpretations of observed shear-wave velocity anomalies in the lithosphere and upper mantle beneath the Tibetan Plateau that are related to the India–Asia collision, and the western Pacific subduction zone.

The tectonic evolution of the Tibetan Plateau has been influenced by continental collision and postcollisional convergence of Indian and Eurasian plates, both of which have undoubtedly imposed their imprints on the lithosphere and upper-mantle structures beneath the collision zone. However, the mode by which the Indian Plate has subducted beneath Tibet, and its driving forces, have been highly uncertain. Here, our seismic evidence reveals flat subduction of the Indian Plate beneath nearly the entire plateau at ~300 km depth, implying that the slab may have transitioned to positive/neutral buoyancy and is no longer capable of supporting steep-angle deep subduction. The horizontal distance over which the flat slab slides northward increases from west (where it collides with the Tarim lithospheric keel) to east (where it has resided approximately north of the Songpan-Ganzi Fold Belt beyond the Qiangtang Block). The Asian lithosphere is subducting beneath northeastern Tibet without colliding with the Indian slab. The low-velocity zone, with a thickness of 50 to 110 km, sandwiched between the Tibetan crust and Indian slab, is positively correlated with the high-elevation, low-relief topography of Tibet, suggesting partial melting of the uppermost mantle that has facilitated the growth and flatness of the plateau by adding buoyant material to its base. We propose that deep mantle convective currents, traced to the Réunion plume and imaged as large-scale low-velocity anomalies from the upper mantle under the Indian Plate downward toward the uppermost lower mantle under the Baikal-Mongolia Plateau, are the primary force driving the ongoing India–Asia postcollisional convergence.

The mechanism behind intracontinental rifting far from plate boundaries remains a central question in geodynamics. The Baikal Rift Zone (BRZ), situated within the Eurasian continental interior, provides a critical case to investigate whether such rifting is a passive response to far-field tectonic stresses or an active process driven by mantle upwelling. Full-waveform tomographic results reveal that westward subduction and stagnation of the Pacific slab within the mantle transition zone have generated a big mantle wedge beneath East Asia, facilitating the development of large-aspect-ratio convection cells. This system produces focused asthenospheric upwelling, seismically characterized by significant negative radial anisotropy from the vertical mantle flow directly located beneath the BRZ beyond the western edge of the flat slab. The process provides primary buoyant forces that drive domal uplift, crustal extension, and ultimately localizes strain to initiate and sustain the continental rupture. The BRZ is a modern archetype of mantle-driven lithosphere-scale continental fracturing.

How to cite: Ma, J., Song, X., Bunge, H.-P., and Fichtner, A.: Mantle Structure beneath East Asia from Seismic Full-Waveform Inversion: Implications for Tibetan Plateau Growth and Western Pacific Subduction, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19234, 2026.

The Groningen region in the northern Netherlands has experienced significant induced seismicity over the past decade due to long-term gas extraction. In addition to hydrocarbon production, the area is considered promising for geothermal energy development and CO₂ storage, highlighting the need for a detailed understanding of the deep subsurface structure. Such knowledge is crucial for enhanced seismic hazard assessment and sustainable subsurface utilization.

We present a teleseismic P-wave tomographic study of the crust and upper mantle beneath the Groningen region, using data recorded by the regional seismic network over the past 6 years. Teleseismic P-wave arrivals are enhanced through stacking and alignment across the network to mitigate high noise levels and improve the accuracy of picking. The resulting first-arrival times form the input dataset for a tomographic inversion performed using FMTomo. Although the Groningen dataset is characterized by high noise levels, the large volume of available data combined with the stacking approach yields a robust set of arrivals suitable for inversion. Due to the dense dataset covering a relatively small region, the resulting model will offer a high-resolution P-wave velocity model of the crust and upper mantle beneath Groningen. This tomographic model provides a foundation for improved waveform simulations of induced seismicity, enhancing our understanding of seismic wave propagation and ground-motion patterns, and contributing to more accurate seismic risk evaluation for current and future subsurface activities.

How to cite: de Laat, J. and Fadel, I.: Revealing the seismic structure of the crust and upper mantle beneath Groningen (NL) through fine-scale teleseismic P-wave tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20388, 2026.

EGU26-20982 | ECS | Orals | SM6.2

Investigating Offshore Godavari Basin Morphotectonics using high-resolution seismic data 

Sarthak Papney, Dibakar Ghosal, and Duggirala Moses Nathaniel

The Offshore Godavari Basin, located along the Eastern Continental Margin of India (ECMI)), is a major pericratonic rift basin and an important location for hydrocarbon industries. In this study, we analyse a 50-km-long 2D seismic profile, acquired by Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC), from the KG-DWN-98/2 block within Godavari Basin. The profile traverses the continental shelf-slope transition, where seafloor water depth increases from ~100 m on the shelf to ~1.3 km in the slope region. The dataset comprises 861 air-gun shots, with each shot gather containing 955 traces. The shot spacing is 50 m, while the hydrophone group interval is 6.25 m, resulting in a CDP spacing of 3.125 m. We have processed the seismic data using a conventional workflow that included geometry merging, band-pass filtering, WEMA, CDP sorting, velocity analysis, NMO correction, Radon filtering, stacking, and post-stack time migration. Preliminary interpretation of the processed seismic section reveals a seafloor characterized by southward dipping uneven topography. A thick pile of sedimentary deposits overlie the southward dipping continental basement in which landward verging growth faults in the shelf region between CDPs 7000-15000 and large scale seaward verging thrusts in the slope region are developed from southern end of the profile to CDP-5000. A folded deposit composed of clay observed at TWT 5-6s of the slope region. The migrated section further illustrates shale diapirism wherein over-pressured shale rises through denser sedimentary deposits and uplifts the overlying formations, creating unique styled fault-bounded highs and anticlines. The process might have involved reactivation of the extensional faults at the basement, causing uplift of previously subsiding area. The study will finally sheds light upon the sea-level fluctuation and its relation with the sediment dynamics of the Godavari river and associated neotectonism.

How to cite: Papney, S., Ghosal, D., and Nathaniel, D. M.: Investigating Offshore Godavari Basin Morphotectonics using high-resolution seismic data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20982, 2026.

EGU26-22407 | Orals | SM6.2

New data on the crustal structure of the Cantabrian Mountains in the western continuation of the Pyrenees: receiver function results from the CANALAB project 

David Pedreira, Andrés Olivar-Castaño, Javier. A. Pulgar, Sergio Cabezas, Alba Díaz-González, Juan Manuel González-Cortina, and Jorge Gallastegui
Seismic profiling has revealed since the 1990s that the Iberian Moho deepens towards the north in the Cantabrian Mountains, as it does in the Pyrenees to the east. However, the crustal root is only robustly imaged by deep seismic sounding beneath the central part of the Cantabrian Mountains, and its maximum extent has only been inferred from unreversed wide-angle reflection data in ocean–land seismic experiments (ESCIN and MARCONI projects). This lack of strong constraints has opened the door to a wide variety of interpretations of Moho depths beneath the northern boundary of the Cantabrian Mountains, along the shoreline of the Bay of Biscay, ranging from ~14 to ~55 km.
One of the main objectives of the ongoing CANALAB project (PID2020-118228RB-C21, funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033) is to add more robust constraints on the lithospheric structure of the Pyrenean–Cantabrian mountain belt using passive seismic techniques. These techniques were applied in two successive deployments of broadband seismic stations: one following a N–S transect along the central Cantabrian Mountains (eastern border of the Asturian Paleozoic massif), and another following a NNE–SSW transect through the eastern Cantabrian Mountains (the Basque–Cantabrian Zone). This work presents the results from the first deployment, extending northwards and southwards the area imaged by the ESCIN-2 seismic reflection profile, in which the deepening of the Iberian Moho beneath the mountain range was previously identified. The new high-resolution passive seismic profile was obtained using 29 stations between the Cantabrian coast and the Duero Foreland Basin, with spacings of 2.2 to 5.5 km. The analysis of teleseismic receiver functions shows that the Iberian Moho sinks into the mantle towards the north to depths of at least 52 km below the coastline, an observation with important implications for the quantification of Alpine shortening and for the validation of the various tectonic models proposed for the area.

How to cite: Pedreira, D., Olivar-Castaño, A., Pulgar, J. A., Cabezas, S., Díaz-González, A., Manuel González-Cortina, J., and Gallastegui, J.: New data on the crustal structure of the Cantabrian Mountains in the western continuation of the Pyrenees: receiver function results from the CANALAB project, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22407, 2026.

EGU26-22737 | Orals | SM6.2

Advances in Array-based Overtone Surface Wave Imaging and Its Application to Lithospheric Structure Imaging 

Zhengbo Li, Juqing Chen, Caiwang Shi, and Xiaofei Chen

Surface wave imaging based on ambient noise cross-correlation technology is one of the most significant advancements in geophysical imaging over the past two decades, widely applied to shear wave velocity structure imaging from near-surface to lithospheric scales. In recent years, with breakthroughs in array-based surface wave techniques, ambient noise surface wave imaging has entered a new phase of studying overtone surface waves. The inclusion of overtone surface waves effectively enhances the ability of surface wave dispersion curve inversion to constrain subsurface structures, particularly low-velocity layers in the crust and lithosphere.

However, in three-dimensional imaging, array methods typically treat the velocity structure inverted from an array as a spatially averaged result, assigning it to the centroid of the array for interpolation. This approach introduces spatial averaging effects, which, to some extent, affect the accuracy of phase velocity and horizontal spatial resolution, while the size and shape of sub-arrays may also influence the results.

To address these issues, we recently developed a framework involving multiple random Voronoi polygon partitioning and spatial phase velocity re-inversion (SPFI). By generating a large number of observations of varying sizes and shapes using random methods, and establishing mathematical relationships between horizontal spatial distributions of phase velocity and observed dispersion curves, we successfully resolved the issues of adaptive partitioning in array-based surface wave methods and improved estimation of horizontal resolution. This report primarily introduces the aforementioned new array-based multi-mode surface wave method and its recent progress in imaging continental lithospheric structures.

How to cite: Li, Z., Chen, J., Shi, C., and Chen, X.: Advances in Array-based Overtone Surface Wave Imaging and Its Application to Lithospheric Structure Imaging, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22737, 2026.

EGU26-1163 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.3

Characterising vp/vs ratios beneath geothermal systems of the Hengill volcano in Iceland using a global-local approach 

Franck Latallerie, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, Marius Isken, Ettore Biondi, Anne Obermann, and Shi Peidong
The Hengill volcanic system in Iceland is of exceptional geological interest and energetic potential. Hengill sits on the mid-Atlantic ridge, on a triple junction, and close to the Icelandic hotspot. It also hosts strong geothermal activity, as apparent at the surface through pools of boiling water scattered across the flanks of the mountain (see figure attached). This geothermal activity has been exploited for electricity production and heating. 
 
While Hengill is of great geological and energetic interest, the geological processes occurring beneath the surface remain only partially understood. Recently, the site has been increasingly instrumented, in particular with large deployments of seismic nodes and with distributed fiber-optic sensing. These give us an unprecedented opportunity to understand processes at work beneath this exceptional volcanic system and shed light on new geothermal energy reservoirs. 
 
Due to their sensitivity to fluids, vp/vs ratios are a parameter of choice to characterise geothermal systems. However, for practical reasons, these ratios also prove difficult to estimate. In this study, we use two overlapping and complementary techniques to infer vp/vs ratios beneath the Hengill volcanic system. First, we use a 'local' technique: the method of double-differences to estimate vp/vs ratios within clusters of earthquakes. These estimates have great accuracy, but they are limited to the locations of the clusters, with a resolution the size of the clusters. Second, we use a 'global' technique: a multi-parameter implementation of Eikonal tomography to map the 3D distribution of vp/vs. This technique offers a global view at the scale of the volcanic system but suffers from resolution artefacts and uncertainty inherent to seismic tomography. These 'local' and 'global' approaches overlap, producing results that can be used to validate each other, and are complementary, allowing us to better characterise the Hengill geothermal system.

How to cite: Latallerie, F., Hjörleifsdóttir, V., Isken, M., Biondi, E., Obermann, A., and Peidong, S.: Characterising vp/vs ratios beneath geothermal systems of the Hengill volcano in Iceland using a global-local approach, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1163, 2026.

EGU26-5405 | Posters on site | SM6.3

Passive Array for Critical Minerals on the Island of Newfoundland (PACMIN) 

J. Kim Welford, Fiona Darbyshire, and Maureen Long

In the summer of 2025, the Passive Array for Critical Minerals on the Island of Newfoundland (PACMIN) project was launched. The deployed array comprises 22 broadband seismograph stations, which will record local, regional and global earthquakes as well as ambient ground vibrations for a period of two years. This experiment will yield the first ever detailed 3D lithospheric structure models of the entire island of Newfoundland from multiple types of seismic analysis. From these models, we will be able to investigate how the region was shaped by Appalachian mountain-building processes, while also exploring tectonic controls on the distribution of key mineral deposits such as gold and critical minerals. The onshore seismicity of Newfoundland, while low, will also be investigated to better understand and mitigate mining exploration/exploitation hazards. Improved detection and locating of small local earthquakes will also allow fault networks in the shallow crust to be mapped and assessed in terms of their potential as fluid pathways that may carry critical minerals. 

How to cite: Welford, J. K., Darbyshire, F., and Long, M.: Passive Array for Critical Minerals on the Island of Newfoundland (PACMIN), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5405, 2026.

EGU26-5919 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.3

Ambient Noise Beamforming with Joint DAS and Three-Component (3C) Seismic Arrays 

Sargun Kaur, Claudia Finger, and Erik H. Saenger

Seismic ambient noise analysis has become an important tool for subsurface characterization, offering a cost-effective alternative to active sources and enabling continuous monitoring. Array-based techniques such as beamforming are central to ambient noise analysis, allowing the estimation of wavefield properties such as propagation direction and phase velocity. Traditionally, beamforming has been applied either to vertical-component array data, particularly for surface-wave analysis, or to three-component (3C) seismic arrays, which allow for polarization and wave-type discrimination.

More recently, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has emerged as a powerful tool for ambient noise studies, providing dense spatial sampling and large apertures at relatively low per-channel cost. However, DAS measurements are primarily sensitive to axial strain and can therefore be interpreted as effectively single-component observations. As a result, DAS arrays deployed along a single line cannot leverage the benefits of 3C beamforming, such as polarization analysis and wave-type identification. Conversely, sparse 3C arrays provide polarization information but are often limited in wavenumber resolution due to restricted aperture and station spacing.

In this study, we develop and test a joint beamforming approach that combines DAS and 3C seismic observations in a unified framework. The joint beamformer is constructed by combining normalized beam power estimates from DAS-only and 3C-only beamforming, enhancing coherent signals that are consistent across both datasets while suppressing incoherent or aliased energy. The performance of the joint approach is evaluated using numerical simulations in layered elastic media. Systematic tests are carried out for different array geometries and station spacings to investigate their effects on aliasing, resolution, and information gain. The results show that the joint beamformer improves the stability of the results, particularly in cases where DAS-only or 3C-only beamforming suffers from aliasing or limited resolution. Finally, the method is applied to a real test dataset to demonstrate its applicability under realistic noise conditions.

Our study suggests that joint DAS–3C beamforming provides a robust framework for ambient noise analysis, offering improved wavefield characterization compared to single-sensor approaches and highlighting the potential of hybrid array designs for future seismic monitoring applications

How to cite: Kaur, S., Finger, C., and Saenger, E. H.: Ambient Noise Beamforming with Joint DAS and Three-Component (3C) Seismic Arrays, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5919, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5919, 2026.

EGU26-6450 | ECS | Orals | SM6.3

Probabilistic body wave tomography in a geothermal setting in Cornwall 

Sixtine Dromigny, Hao Yang, Paula Koelemeijer, Andrew Curtis, Thomas Hudson, Mike Kendall, and Xin Zhang

Geothermal systems provide a low-carbon, renewable source of heat, whose performance depends on the presence of permeable, fluid-filled rock at depth. Tomographic images of compressional and shear-wave velocities, Vp and Vs, and their ratio, Vp/Vs, are typically used to constrain the lithology, porosity, fluid content and extent of fracturing in such systems: contrasts in seismic velocity delineate lithological boundaries, identify zones of fracture damage or fluid saturation, and thereby indicate areas of elevated permeability.

Passive seismic acquisition is attractive for geothermal exploration, because it is minimally invasive and can exploit microseismicity recorded by dense nodal seismological arrays. Combining data recorded from microseismic events with Bayesian joint inversion of seismic velocity and source location – here implemented with stochastic Stein Variational Gradient Descent (sSVGD) and double difference tomography – yields relocated earthquake events and three-dimensional estimates of Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs together with their respective uncertainty. sSVGD approximates the statistical description of all possible models that fit the data, referred to as the posterior distribution, using an ensemble of particles or samples. These are initialized from a prior distribution, which encodes the prior information about the domain, and driven toward the posterior by iterative transforms that minimise the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the particle density and the posterior.

We apply this workflow to the Eden Project geothermal site (Cornwall, UK), using microseismic events recorded by an array of 450 STRYDE nodes deployed around the injection site. The objective is to recover mean models of Vp and Vs, and Vp/Vs with their corresponding uncertainty from passive sources alone, enabling probabilistic assessment of the subsurface structure and potential future well-placement targets.

Owing to the nodal geometry and the spatial distribution of microseismic sources, ray-path coverage is highly heterogeneous across the survey volume. Consequently, the posterior uncertainty is large over much of the domain and decreases substantially where ray coverage is dense – mostly around the geothermal well. Within this region, we observe velocity anomalies consistent with fractured and fluid-saturated rock, while regions distant from the well remain poorly constrained. By providing a clearer understanding of uncertainties inherent to tomographic inversions, the probabilistic imaging framework enables more robust and reliable analysis of the results, which is crucial in geothermal exploration.

How to cite: Dromigny, S., Yang, H., Koelemeijer, P., Curtis, A., Hudson, T., Kendall, M., and Zhang, X.: Probabilistic body wave tomography in a geothermal setting in Cornwall, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6450, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6450, 2026.

EGU26-10793 | ECS | Orals | SM6.3

Matched-Field Processing for Detecting Mofette Activity in the Western Eger Rift, Czechia 

Kurosh Karimi, Tomáš Fischer, Josef Vlček, Martin Mazanec, Jan Vilhelm, and Ali Masihi

Deep-derived carbon dioxide (CO₂) degassing is a globally important process linking crust–mantle fluid transport with atmospheric carbon budgets. Matched Field Processing-Bartlett Beamformer (MFP-BB) method offers a seismic approach for detecting tremor signals generated by these degassing centers (mofette). Its principle relies on comparing recorded wavefields with modeled replicas to identify the most likely source locations.

This study applies the MFP–BB technique to dense-array seismic noise data from three key mofette areas in the Cheb Basin, western Eger Rift—Bublák, Hartoušov, and Soos. We combine field observations with numerical simulations to evaluate the method’s performance. Synthetic tests with interfering noise-embedded sources (SNR = 5 dB) demonstrate that accurate localization is achievable with appropriate frequency selection, and that even 20% perturbations in the velocity model introduce only minor degradation.

Field data were processed through segmentation, noise filtering, and spectral analysis to determine persistent frequency bands used in the algorithm. Across all sites, MFP-BB energy concentrates near the surface, coinciding with known mofette fields and CO₂ discharge zones. These shallow anomalies reflect microtremors generated as ascending CO₂ interacts with groundwater and unconsolidated sediments; additional, weaker anomalies at depths < 200 m may also represent active gas migration.

How to cite: Karimi, K., Fischer, T., Vlček, J., Mazanec, M., Vilhelm, J., and Masihi, A.: Matched-Field Processing for Detecting Mofette Activity in the Western Eger Rift, Czechia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10793, 2026.

EGU26-11305 | Posters on site | SM6.3

Seismic While Drilling as a Passive Source for Imaging Deep Geothermal Systems  

Nadine Maatouk, Florian Cazenave, Laurent Gerbaud, Mark Noble, and Naveen Velmurugan
Deep high-enthalpy geothermal systems are typically developed in geologically complex settings characterized by strong structural heterogeneity and crystalline reservoirs. In such environments, conventional subsurface imaging methods are severely limited. High-resolution geophysical techniques that perform well in sedimentary basins, such as active surface seismic reflection, are often impractical or ineffective and fail to provide reliable images of deep geological structures. In addition, acquisition costs become prohibitive, particularly for three-dimensional surveys. 
These limitations can be partly overcome by passive seismic imaging approaches, including ambient-noise tomography based on surface waves and earthquake-based passive seismic tomography. These methods have demonstrated their operational robustness in complex geological contexts and at depths beyond the reach of conventional active techniques. However, although generally reliable, their spatial resolution remains limited and typically degrades with depth. 
At the drilling stage of deep geothermal projects, improved subsurface characterization is essential to reduce geological uncertainty, support accurate well trajectory planning, and mitigate drilling risks. Enhancing the resolution and relevance of passive seismic imaging in the vicinity of the borehole therefore represents a key methodological challenge for geothermal exploration and development. 
In this contribution, we present results from a passive seismic acquisition conducted during drilling in a deep high-enthalpy geothermal field in southern Tuscany (Italy). The study investigates the potential of exploiting seismic energy generated by the drill bit (Seismic While Drilling, SWD) as an additional method to complement and enhance subsurface imaging. Although SWD is not a new concept, only a limited number of studies have investigated its application at such depths and in geologically complex crystalline environments. 
For this experiment, a total of 65 seismic nodes, including both single-component and three-component sensors, were deployed around the drilling site, with rig–receiver offsets ranging from 150 m to 1700 m. Continuous recordings were acquired over a 10-day period at a sampling interval of 2 ms, during which drilling progressed from 3,200 m to 3,700 m depth. 
Data processing followed workflows commonly used in ambient-noise tomography. However, the drilling operations generated strong surface waves that required specific processing strategies. Several beamforming and wavefield-separation approaches were therefore applied to suppress surface-wave energy and enhance body-wave signals associated with the drill bit. 
Preliminary results show that body waves generated by the drill bit at depths between 3,200 m and 3,700 m are clearly recorded by surface sensors. These observations enable the extraction of detailed P-wave velocity information, providing higher-resolution constraints that complement other passive geophysical surveys such as ambient-noise tomography. 

How to cite: Maatouk, N., Cazenave, F., Gerbaud, L., Noble, M., and Velmurugan, N.: Seismic While Drilling as a Passive Source for Imaging Deep Geothermal Systems , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11305, 2026.

EGU26-13211 | Orals | SM6.3

Reflection Matrix Imaging of the Hengill Geothermal Field, Iceland 

Leon Berry-Walshe, Naiara Korta Martiartu, and Anne Obermann

Imaging the Earth’s subsurface is fundamental to a wide range of geophysical applications, including natural hazard assessment and mitigation, geothermal and mineral exploration, and crustal characterization. However, achieving reliable seismic images in strongly heterogeneous media remains a significant challenge. In such environments, conventional seismic imaging approaches, including tomography and migration, often perform poorly due to the prevalence of multiple scattering and high attenuation, which obscures primary reflections and degrades image quality.

While multiple scattering has traditionally been regarded as a major impediment to seismic imaging, recent advances have demonstrated that this scattered energy can instead be exploited to extract valuable information. One such approach is Reflection Matrix Imaging (RMI). RMI involves using seismic interferometry to construct a reflection matrix that contains the full wavefield response between virtual source–receiver pairs, allowing for the analysis of reflected energy generated by subsurface heterogeneities. From this, the distortions undergone by the incident and reflected waves  can be isolated and compensated for even with a rough estimate of the background seismic velocity. RMI has been shown to enhance imaging in complex geological settings, including volcanic environments, and has also been seen to be effective in 3D imaging applications in fields such as optical microscopy and medical ultrasound.

In this study, RMI is adapted to data from a dense seismic array deployed in the Hengill Geothermal Field, Iceland. The subset of the array considered here comprises 267 stations distributed over a rectangular approximately 5X10km2 , with continuous recordings spanning 2.5 months. Reflection matrices are constructed, and the applicability and performance of RMI in this highly heterogeneous geothermal setting are systematically evaluated.

How to cite: Berry-Walshe, L., Korta Martiartu, N., and Obermann, A.: Reflection Matrix Imaging of the Hengill Geothermal Field, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13211, 2026.

Mapping of fracture networks is critical to the exploration and responsible exploitation of geothermal resources. Fractures provide the permeable pathways required for efficient heat extraction and knowledge of their subsurface distribution is necessary for optimal well placement and reservoir modelling. Additionally, fractures play a significant role in induced seismic hazards both by decreasing rock strength and by providing hydraulic connections between fluid injection/extraction sites and surrounding fault networks that may slip in response to pore pressure perturbations. However, constraining fracture distributions in 3D can be challenging. Geologic mapping provides limited information regarding how these systems evolve with depth and exploratory drilling is expensive and only provides point-wise constraints that may not reflect larger-scale trends. Seismic imaging utilising local earthquakes provides a cost-effective means to overcome these issues and map fractures at the reservoir scale. In this contribution, we constrain the anisotropic P-wave velocity structure of the Hengill Geothermal Field (Iceland) using arrival times from natural and induced seismicity. A Bayesian Monte Carlo sampling approach is used to construct likely velocity models and posterior parameter distributions from which we evaluate hypotheses for fracture properties. The imaged slow P-wave propagation directions constrain the average 3D fracture plane orientations while the degree of alignment and extent of fracturing is inferred from the strength of velocity anisotropy. Our models reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in these fracture properties throughout the Hengill geothermal system. We explore possible mechanisms behind this heterogeneity (e.g. deformation related to topographic loading, tectonic and magmatic stresses, and geothermal energy production) and its relationship to local seismicity patterns.

How to cite: VanderBeek, B., Nowacki, A., and de Ridder, S.: Exploring fracture networks beneath the Hengill Geothermal Field (Iceland) through probabilistic anisotropic P-wave tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13292, 2026.

EGU26-14029 | Orals | SM6.3

Optimization of a land-based non-invasive passive seismic approach for the exploration of deep-seated critical raw materials in the North of Spain 

Patricia Cadenas, Javier Olona, Jorge Acevedo, Elena Fernández Martín, Alejandro Mazaira, Pablo Gallardo, Luis Villa, Manuel Cueto, Jose Antonio Marín, Modesto Agüera, Ramón Rodríguez, and Andrés Olivar-Castaño

A sustainable supply of critical and strategic raw materials, like copper, cobalt, lithium, or fluorite, amongst others, is a critical prerequisite for the decarbonisation of the economy and the successful implementation of the green transition. However, Europe currently lacks sufficient knowledge, exploration activity, and domestic supply of these commodities. To overcome these limitations, the DEXPLORE project aims at developing surface to subsurface sustainable cost-effective geological and geophysical techniques for mineral exploration using three pilot zones in Spain and Estonia. Within the framework of this project, we present an innovative non-invasive passive seismic exploration approach and a field test conducted to optimize acquisition and processing parameters. The main objective was to achieve sufficient resolution at prospect depths of 500-1000 m, enabling the identification of ore-associated geological structures in one of the pilot zones, corresponding to the Villabona Fluorite deposit in Asturias (northern Iberian Peninsula, Spain).   

The passive seismic methodology relies on the recording and processing of ambient seismic noise acquired by seismic nodes. We designed a preliminary configuration and workflow based on an extensive review of the passive seismic method to run a five-day small-scale field test in the Minersa Pilot Zone, located in the central part of Asturias (N Spain). In this area, the currently active Villabona Mine produces fluorite hosted by Mesozoic sediments affected by extensional faults on an epigenetic Mississippi-Valley-type ore deposit. The fieldwork encompassed the deployment of 38 seismic nodes along a profile with a total length of 3300 meters, with a sensor spacing of 90 meters. Five days of continuous passive data were acquired. Processing methods included the Extended Spatial Autocorrelation (ESPAC) methodology and the Ambient Noise Interferometry (ANI) procedure. The inversion of 31 dispersion curves enabled the construction of a 2-D S-wave velocity model extending to a maximum depth of 700 m. The model shows two velocity sectors separated by a low velocity corridor and identifies velocity anomalies that correspond with structural variations and major fault systems. These results validate the proposed ambient seismic noise workflow for imaging geological and structural features to depths of approximately 700 meters. Additionally, this study demonstrates that the ESPAC processing method enhances survey efficiency and flexibility, particularly when using irregular array configurations. The ESPAC method provided the most reliable results for developing an S-wave velocity model, with lateral resolution dependent on the number and spacing of seismic nodes. Future works include the development of additional passive seismic profiles in the Villabona Pilot Zone, together with planned tests in two additional pilot areas in Spain and Estonia. The main aim is to further validate and apply the passive seismic methodology across diverse geological settings characterized by variable ore deposit distribution and structural configurations.  

How to cite: Cadenas, P., Olona, J., Acevedo, J., Fernández Martín, E., Mazaira, A., Gallardo, P., Villa, L., Cueto, M., Marín, J. A., Agüera, M., Rodríguez, R., and Olivar-Castaño, A.: Optimization of a land-based non-invasive passive seismic approach for the exploration of deep-seated critical raw materials in the North of Spain, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14029, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14029, 2026.

EGU26-15245 | Orals | SM6.3

GEOthermal SEISmic AI Platform (GEOSEIS-AI) for Deep and Supercritical Geothermal Exploration 

Hao Kuo-Chen, Wei-Fang Sun, Zhuo-Kang Guan, Sheng-Yan Pan, Chao-Jui Chang, Yao-Hung Liu, and Takeshi Tsuji

In the pursuit of deep geothermal energy (depths exceeding 3 km), the limitations of traditional surface exploration often render the subsurface "invisible." This study presents an integrated seismic exploration framework: the GEOthermal SEISmic AI Platform (GEOSEIS-AI). This platform leverages high-density microseismic monitoring networks and advanced deep-learning (DL) techniques to resolve the "four pillars" essential for geothermal development: heat sources (temperature), stress states (pressure), fracture distributions (pathways), and fluid properties. Building upon the architecture of the Real-Time Microearthquake Monitoring System (RT-MEMS) (Sun et al., 2025), GEOSEIS-AI utilizes DL phase picking and earthquake localization to accelerate the processing of massive datasets. Key seismic observables—including seismicity, focal mechanism, shear-wave splitting, and seismic tomography—are employed to directly characterize these four parameters. We demonstrate the platform's capabilities through two distinct case studies: a metamorphic region in Taiwan focusing on deep geothermal potential (Huang et al., 2023) and a volcanic region in Japan targeting supercritical energy (Tsuji et al., 2025). By mapping the spatial distribution of microearthquakes, we identify the Brittle-Ductile Transition (BDT) interface. Since seismic activity ceases as rocks transition from brittle to plastic states at high temperatures (350-400°C), the "seismic-quiet zone" serves as a proxy for the top of the heat source. Identifying these thermal upwellings is essential for targeting high-enthalpy drilling sites. By analyzing P-wave first motions with DL techniques, we resolve the local stress field and faulting styles. This provides vital data for assessing wellbore stability and distinguishing between dilated, fluid-conductive faults and compressed, sealing structures. Utilizing shear-wave splitting technique, we quantify the density and orientation of subsurface fracture networks. This provides a "pre-drilling ultrasound" that identifies high-permeability zones and informs hydraulic fracturing strategies for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). Through Vp/Vs ratio analysis derived from seismic tomography, we can differentiate between solid lithology and fluid-filled pores, and more critically, the identification of fluid phases (liquid water, steam, or melt), where low and high Vp/Vs ratios act as indicators of geothermal steam and fluids, respectively. The results show that GEOSEIS-AI significantly enhances the resolution of reservoir imaging and also provides critical insights into induced seismicity monitoring for future geothermal hydrofracturing and CO2 injection of CCS operation.

Keywords: GEOSEIS-AI; Deep Geothermal Energy; Supercritical Energy; CCS; Deep Learning; Microseismic Monitoring; Seismicity; Focal Mechanism; Shear-Wave Splitting; Vp/Vs; Seismic Tomography.

References:

Sun, W.-F., S.-Y. Pan, Y.-H. Liu, H. Kuo-Chen, C.-S. Ku, C.-M. Lin, and C.-C.Fu  (2025). A Deep-Learning-Based Real-Time Microearthquake Monitoring System (RT-MEMS) for Taiwan. Sensors25(11), 3353. https://doi.org/10.3390/s25113353.

Tsuji ,T., R. Andajani, M. Kato, A. Hara, N. Aoki, S. Abe, H. Kuo-Chen, Z.-K. Guan, W.-F. Sun, S.-Y. Pan, Y.-H. Liu, K. Kitamura, J. Nishijima, and H. Inagaki  (2025) Supercritical fluid flow through permeable window and phase transitions at volcanic brittle–ductile transition zone, Commun. Earth Environ. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02774-4.

Huang S.-Y., W.-S. Chen, L.-H. Lin, H. Kuo-Chen, C.-W. Lin, W.-H. Hsu, Y.-H. Liou (2023). Geothermal characteristics of the Paolai Hot Spring area, Taiwan. 45th New Zealand Geothermal Workshop, Auckland, New Zealand.

 

How to cite: Kuo-Chen, H., Sun, W.-F., Guan, Z.-K., Pan, S.-Y., Chang, C.-J., Liu, Y.-H., and Tsuji, T.: GEOthermal SEISmic AI Platform (GEOSEIS-AI) for Deep and Supercritical Geothermal Exploration, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15245, 2026.

EGU26-15833 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.3

GEOthermal SEISmic AI Platform (GEOSEIS-AI): Shear-wave Splitting Analysis Module and A Case Study of Geothermal Site in Miaoli, Taiwan 

Chao-Jui Chang, Wei-Fang Sun, Yao-Hung Liu, Sheng-Yan Pan, and Hao Kuo-Chen

Shear-wave splitting analysis module is part of the GEOSEIS-AI platform, primarily utilized to characterize stress states and subsurface fracture distributions in geothermal sites. However, microseismic data in geothermal sites often face on inherent limitations, including low signal-to-noise ratios (SNR), cycle skipping, fast/slow wave misidentification, and null measurements, all of which compromise the accuracy of automated processing.

To solve these limitations, this study optimizes the pre-processing stage by utilizing adaptive time-window selection to maximize SNR. Furthermore, an automated quality-controlling workflow was developed, based on three diagnostic metrics: (1) peak-picking determination of fast and slow waves; (2) cross-correlation (CC) coefficients; and (3) the energy variation rate between the principal S-wave component and perpendicular component. These tests facilitate the robust identification and remove low-quality seismic events.

This methodology was validated using microseismic monitoring data from the geothermal site in Miaoli, Taiwan. The results reveal two predominant fracture sets oriented NW-SE and N-S. The NW-SE orientations align with the regional focal mechanism solutions, reflecting stress states, while the N-S trends correspond to surface-mapped fault orientations. This workflow was integrated into the GEOSEIS-AI Platform—alongside AI catalogs, focal mechanisms, and seismic tomography—to establish a reliable microseismic monitoring system for geothermal exploration.

Keywords: GEOSEIS-AI; Geothermal Energy; Microseismic Monitoring; Shear-Wave Splitting; fracture distribution.

How to cite: Chang, C.-J., Sun, W.-F., Liu, Y.-H., Pan, S.-Y., and Kuo-Chen, H.: GEOthermal SEISmic AI Platform (GEOSEIS-AI): Shear-wave Splitting Analysis Module and A Case Study of Geothermal Site in Miaoli, Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15833, 2026.

EGU26-16026 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.3

GEOthermal SEISmic AI Platform (GEOSEIS-AI): A Deep-Learning-Based Real-Time Microearthquake Monitoring System (RT-MEMS) for Taiwan 

Wei-Fang Sun, Sheng-Yan Pan, Yao-Hung Liu, Hao Kuo-Chen, Chin-Shang Ku, Che-Min Lin, Ching-Chou Fu, Strong Wen, and Yu-Ting Kuo

Establishing a real-time and high-resolution earthquake catalog is crucial for understanding the development process of earthquake sequences and conducting disaster risk assessment. This study developed a real-time microearthquake monitoring system (RT-MEMS) that integrates deep learning technology (Sun et al., 2025). After testing and verification, it was confirmed that the system can quickly and reliably provide earthquake activity information through a fully automated process. The main data processing process of the system includes: (1) using SeedLink to receive continuous waveform data from four broadband seismic networks, maintained by the Institute of Earth Sciences of Academia Sinica, the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, National Chung Cheng University, and National Taiwan University, and store and build a continuous waveform database; (2) using a deep learning model trained with Taiwan earthquake arrival data to identify and select P- and S-wave arrival times and store them in an arrival database; (3) selecting appropriate seismic station combinations according to the monitoring area, extracting corresponding P- and S-wave arrival times to associate and locate earthquake events, and generating a preliminary deep learning earthquake catalog; (4) preparing daily earthquake reports and sending them to relevant personnel via email, LINE, Discord etc. Compared with the existing seismic observation network, this system has shown advantages in microseismic detection and analysis capabilities and processing efficiency. It is particularly suitable for specific areas or fields that require intensive monitoring. Currently, three real-time microseismic monitoring systems have been established: 1. Chihshang real-time microearthquake monitoring system (2022CSN-RT-MEMS), which observes the background microseismic activity of the creeping segment of the Chihshang fault, including the 2022 M6.9 Chihshang earthquake sequence (Sun et al., 2024); 2. Hualien earthquake real-time microseismic monitoring system (2024HL-RT-MEMS), which continuously observes the changes in the aftershock sequence of the 2024 M7.2 Hualien earthquake; 3. the Chia-Nan real-time microseismic monitoring system (2025CN-RT-MEMS), that this system was established in early 2025 to observe the main aftershock sequence of medium and large earthquakes in the area including the 2025 M6.4 Dapu earthquake sequence (Kuo-Chen et al., 2025). RE-MEMS can quickly provide changes in seismic activity and establish a long-term earthquake catalog. After further data processing (such as absolute or relative relocation), the earthquake catalog will help the subsequent interpretation of earthquake tectonic structures and other earthquake parameter studies, such as focal mechanism, earthquake magnitude, and three-dimensional velocity model inversion. In summary, RT-MEMS serves as an effective reinforcement for the current earthquake observation network, significantly improving the timeliness and resolution of earthquake observation.

Keywords: real-time microearthquake monitoring system; deep learning; SeedLink; automated workflow; earthquake catalog

References

Kuo-Chen H., et al. (2025). Real-time earthquake monitoring with deep learning: A case study of the 2025 M6.4 Dapu earthquake and its fault system in southwestern Taiwan. The Seismic Record, 5(3), 320-329, https://doi.org/10.1785/0320250023.

Sun, W. F., et al. (2024). Deep learning-based earthquake catalog reveals the seismogenic structures of the 2022 MW 6.9 Chihshang earthquake sequence. Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 35, 5, https://doi.org/10.1007/s44195-024-00063-9.

Sun, W. F., et al. (2025). A Deep-Learning-Based Real-Time Microearthquake Monitoring System (RT-MEMS) for Taiwan. Sensors, 25(11), 3353. https://doi.org/10.3390/s25113353.

How to cite: Sun, W.-F., Pan, S.-Y., Liu, Y.-H., Kuo-Chen, H., Ku, C.-S., Lin, C.-M., Fu, C.-C., Wen, S., and Kuo, Y.-T.: GEOthermal SEISmic AI Platform (GEOSEIS-AI): A Deep-Learning-Based Real-Time Microearthquake Monitoring System (RT-MEMS) for Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16026, 2026.

Deep mineral exploration in high-altitude permafrost regions, such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, faces severe challenges due to complex topography, fragile ecosystems, and intense industrial noise. While passive seismic reflection imaging offers an eco-friendly alternative to active sources, its reliability is often compromised in active mining areas where the ambient noise field is strongly directional and non-stationary, violating the stationary phase assumption required for interferometry.

In this study, we present a successful application of passive seismic reflection imaging at the Huoshaoyun super-large lead-zinc deposit (>5,000 m elevation) in Xinjiang, China. To overcome the artifacts induced by strong directional noise (e.g., heavy mining trucks and machinery), we propose a novel wavefield reconstruction method based on Directional Energy Balancing in the frequency-wavenumber (f−k) domain. Unlike traditional linear stacking, our approach introduces a Directionality Index (DI) to quantify the energy asymmetry of noise slices. We implement a "bucket balancing" weighting strategy that actively screens and balances the noise energy flux, constructing a virtual isotropic illumination environment. This process effectively suppresses spurious artifacts and significantly enhances the signal-to-noise ratio of body-wave reflections.

Utilizing 31 days of continuous waveform data from a dense linear array of 500 short-period seismometers, we retrieved high-resolution reflection profiles reaching 2 km depth. The imaging results clearly reveal the spatial geometry of ore-controlling syncline structures and interlayer fracture zones. These geophysical interpretations were validated by subsequent drilling, demonstrating a high consistency with geological facts. Our findings indicate that the proposed directional balancing strategy can turn "noise into signal" even in strongly heterogeneous noise environments, providing a robust, low-cost, and non-invasive solution for deep resource exploration in extreme environments.

How to cite: Jin, Z. and Wang, Z.: Passive Seismic Reflection Imaging in Active Mining Environments: A Directional Energy Balancing Strategy Applied to the Huoshaoyun Deposit, Tibet Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16335, 2026.

EGU26-17354 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.3

GEOthermal SEISmic AI Platform (GEOSEIS-AI):AI-assisted Seismic Tomography for Geothermal Exploration in the Western Foothills of Taiwan 

Zhuo-Kang Guan, Hao Kuo-Chen, Wei-Fang Sun, and Sheng-Yan Pan

Geothermal exploration in tectonically active regions requires reliable imaging of subsurface structures, fracture systems, and potential heat sources. Seismic methods play a critical role in providing key constraints on buried fault geometry and geothermal-related structures.

This study applies an AI-assisted seismic workflow to seismic tomography for evaluating geothermal potential in the Western Foothills of Taiwan.Earthquake catalogs generated using AI-based detection and phase-picking algorithms were used as inputs for finite-difference travel-time tomography to construct three-dimensional P- and S-wave velocity models from the surface to 8 km depth, with an approximate spatial resolution of 1 km in the upper 6 km.

Two geothermal areas were investigated: the Tai’an area in central Taiwan and the Baolai area in southwestern Taiwan, both characterized by prominent hot spring outcroppings. A total of 63 and 49 seismic stations, respectively, recorded one month of continuous data in each area. The tomography results reveal shallow seismicity mainly distributed between 3 and 7 km depth, closely associated with mapped active faults from geological investigations. High-velocity anomalies (Vp > 5.2 km/s) observed at depths of 2–5 km are interpreted as uplifted crystalline basement or competent metamorphic rocks related to orogenic processes.

These shallow high-velocity bodies likely act as geothermal heat sources and structural controls for fluid circulation, explaining the development of surface hot springs. Our results demonstrate that AI-assisted seismic tomography provides an efficient and practical framework for geothermal exploration in complex tectonic environments.

How to cite: Guan, Z.-K., Kuo-Chen, H., Sun, W.-F., and Pan, S.-Y.: GEOthermal SEISmic AI Platform (GEOSEIS-AI):AI-assisted Seismic Tomography for Geothermal Exploration in the Western Foothills of Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17354, 2026.

EGU26-18122 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.3

Bayesian Inversion of H/V Spectral Ratios for Constraining Shallow Subsurface Structure in Geothermal Exploration 

Jonas Pätzel, Alexander Yates, Mathieu Depoorter, and Corentin Caudron

Accurate subsurface characterization is fundamental to the successful development of geothermal systems. Such comprehensive knowledge allows determining geological structures that govern local fluid circulation and heat transport. As drilling represents one of the largest cost factors in geothermal development, ensuring that wells target zones of high hydraulic conductivity and permeability can substantially reduce exploration risk and overall project costs. Passive seismic techniques, being both inexpensive and non-invasive, have proven to be effective tools for both geothermal exploration and monitoring. Among them, Horizontal-to-Vertical spectral ratios (H/V) are often used to map subsurface topography. Their interpretation and inversion, however, often rely on prior knowledge of local shear-wave velocity or subsurface layering.

In this case study we employ a trans-dimensional Bayesian framework to invert H/V curves from more than 70 survey points across a prospective aquifer thermal energy storage system in rural Belgium, which will supply about 160 housing units. Our approach enables the generation of pseudo-2D shear-wave velocity profiles across the site without requiring additional information to constrain the inversion. Low velocity zones are identified which can be related to karstification and geological layering suggested by geological maps. The results are further validated with direct field measurements. Borehole logs from exploration wells drilled on the basis of our results indicate high hydraulic conductivity and are supported by water table measurement from cone penetration testing. The derived profiles offer valuable information to guide well placement and optimize drilling decisions by reducing uncertainty in subsurface conditions. Our findings demonstrate that passive seismological techniques, combined with probabilistic inversion approaches can serve as a cost-effective tool in support of the energy transition.

How to cite: Pätzel, J., Yates, A., Depoorter, M., and Caudron, C.: Bayesian Inversion of H/V Spectral Ratios for Constraining Shallow Subsurface Structure in Geothermal Exploration, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18122, 2026.

EGU26-18228 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.3

GEOthermal SEISmic AI Platform (GEOSEIS-AI): P-wave First Motion Focal Mechanism Determination Module 

Sheng-Yan Pan, Wei-Fang Sun, Yao-Hung Liu, and Hao Kuo-Chen

Focal mechanism solutions serve as an effective observational tool for fracture detection in geothermal exploration and monitoring induced seismicity, aiding in the understanding of subsurface stress states. In these monitoring tasks, often involving high-density, small-scale networks, there is a critical need to generate real-time focal mechanism solutions for a large volume of microseismic events characterized by low signal-to-noise ratios. In this study, we develop an automated workflow integrating deep learning models to determine focal mechanisms. To resolve smaller seismic events (especially magnitude < 3), the P-wave first motion method is employed. Validation tests demonstrate that the workflow can rapidly provide a reliable catalog of focal mechanism solutions. The workflow includes: (1) performing signal-to-noise ratio threshold on P-waves to exclude phases with ambiguous polarities; (2) utilizing a suitable deep learning model, RPNet, to determine first-motion polarity, ensuring accurate identification even with arrival time offsets (about 0.02s), which is characteristic of deep learning-based seismic catalogs; and (3) calculating focal mechanisms using three distinct methods: HASH, FPFIT, and FOCMEC, to ensure solution stability, with the Kagan angle used to quantify consistency (smaller differences indicate higher stability). This workflow has been implemented at the Miaoli geothermal field in Taiwan. The resulting focal mechanisms are predominantly strike-slip; the P-axes exhibit a NW-SE orientation, while the T-axes show a NE-SW orientation, aligning with shear wave splitting results. This workflow has been integrated into the GEOSEIS-AI Platform, aiming to get focal mechanisms rapidly and reliably, enhancing our understanding to the seismogenic structure.

Keywords: GEOSEIS-AI; Deep Geothermal Energy; focal mechanisms; deep learning; automated workflow

How to cite: Pan, S.-Y., Sun, W.-F., Liu, Y.-H., and Kuo-Chen, H.: GEOthermal SEISmic AI Platform (GEOSEIS-AI): P-wave First Motion Focal Mechanism Determination Module, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18228, 2026.

EGU26-18875 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.3

High-resolution imaging of the Kuusamo Belt, northern Finland, from ambient noise tomography 

Emily Rodriguez, Christian Sippl, Tuija Luhta, Graham Hill, and Jochen Kamm

The Kuusamo Belt of northern Finland formed as an Early Proterozoic rift system within the Archean crust of the Fennoscandian Shield between ~2.5 and 2.0 Ga. Following its formation, it has recorded several major shortening episodes, resulting in a heavily folded medium-grade metamorphic belt. More recently, this region has garnered interest due to the presence of Au and Co deposits within the belt. As a part of the multidisciplinary project UNDERCOVER, we present a preliminary ambient noise tomography model of the region focused on the crustal architecture around these deposits, using 493 nodal seismometers that were deployed over a 35x35 km region from June to August 2025. This dense array was inset within a larger network of 35 broadband stations spanning 150x170 km. Combining these arrays, we extract path‐averaged Rayleigh wave phase‐velocity dispersion measurements for >130,000 interstation paths to constrain the shear wave velocity structure of the upper 40 km. Our preliminary model resolves the large-scale crustal structure with the bulk crust characterized by shear wave velocities >3.0 km/s up to very shallow depths, consistent with wavespeeds sampling Archean greenstones and Paleoproterozoic mafic rocks which outcrop within the study region. To first order, broad-scale velocity perturbations align well with the trend of large-scale folding in the region. Going forward, we hope to take advantage of the dense nodal array and incorporate high-frequency phase velocities in a single model to refine the shallow subsurface structure and better characterize the relationship between velocity anomalies, structural features, and mineralization.

This research has received funding from the European Union through the Horizon Europe project UNDERCOVER (Grant agreement No. 101177528).

How to cite: Rodriguez, E., Sippl, C., Luhta, T., Hill, G., and Kamm, J.: High-resolution imaging of the Kuusamo Belt, northern Finland, from ambient noise tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18875, 2026.

EGU26-23038 | ECS | Orals | SM6.3

Travel time tomography of Aluto-Langano Geothermal field in the Main Ethiopian Rift 

Tesfahiwet Yemane, John Michael Kendall, and Petros Bogiatzis

Understanding the structure of the crust and subsurface fluid distribution in volcanic systems is critical for geothermal energy development, volcanic hazard monitoring and mineral exploration. Seismic travel time tomography provides high-resolution images of the subsurface by mapping variations in P- and S-wave velocity structures and their ratio (Vp/Vs), offering insights into the internal structure of the volcano. In this study, we apply local earthquake travel time tomography at Aluto volcano, located in the central Main Ethiopian Rift (MER), and Ethiopia's first pilot site for geothermal energy development. 

We analyse seismic data recorded between January 2012 and January 2014, identifying 2,393 local earthquakes mainly along the central part of the caldera and the Wonji Fault Belt (WFB) using non-linear location methods. We selected events with low spatial errors and a signal-to-noise ratio threshold of three or higher for the 3D travel time tomography. By resolving P- and S-wave velocity variations, as well as Vp/Vs anomalies, we aim to delineate zones of fluid saturation and structural heterogeneity. We compute the complete model resolution matrix using direct sparse methods, enabling us to assess the reliability of the tomographic model. 

The results of this study are compared with previous studies on the attenuation and conductivity structure of Aluto, collectively providing new insights into the magmatic-hydrothermal system of the Aluto volcano. This study will help to refine geothermal exploration strategies and enhance our understanding of subsurface processes beneath the volcano. 

How to cite: Yemane, T., Kendall, J. M., and Bogiatzis, P.: Travel time tomography of Aluto-Langano Geothermal field in the Main Ethiopian Rift, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-23038, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-23038, 2026.

EGU26-1247 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.4

A 2D joint inversion method for Rayleigh wave phase velocity and attenuation coefficient 

Piao Yang and Youyi Ruan

Seismic attenuation is important to understand the thermal and compositional state of the lithosphere, therefore sheds light on its deformation process. However, measuring the attenuation coefficient of seismic waves is still a challenging task because the phase and amplitude can be affected by both elastic velocity structures and anelastic attenuation, let alone these effects are coupled. Here, we developed a 2D joint inversion T-matrix method for the Rayleigh-wave phase velocity and attenuation coefficient simultaneously. Using a matrix inversion calculation to update the background medium Green functions with scattering series, the scattered wavefield can be fully represented in the frequency domain. First, the T-matrix method takes the coupling of elasticity and attenuation on waveform into consideration by joint inversion. Secondly, by calculating the anelastic scattering effects, 2D distribution can be obtained even for weak attenuation, which is a step towards 3D Q structure. Without time domain wave propagation simulations, the method is affordable in regional problems. Therefore, the method can be used to invert 2D Rayleigh wave phase velocity and attenuation coefficients.

How to cite: Yang, P. and Ruan, Y.: A 2D joint inversion method for Rayleigh wave phase velocity and attenuation coefficient, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1247, 2026.

Characterizing high-frequency (~10 Hz) seismic wave propagation is essential for understanding strong ground motions and improving seismic hazard assessment. High-frequency components are strongly influenced not only by source processes but also by small-scale heterogeneity along the propagation path. In the crust, vertical layering coexists with lateral heterogeneity, which plays a key role in controlling the propagation and attenuation of seismic waves. During propagation, seismic energy is reduced by intrinsic attenuation, in which energy is dissipated into heat and acoustic energy, and by scattering due to heterogeneity, which can produce apparent attenuation or amplification. In this study, we analyze S-wave coda from the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake using Multiple Lapse Time Window Analysis (MLTWA) to estimate the intrinsic (Qi), scattering (Qs), and total (Qt) quality factors in discrete frequency bands. Over the central frequency range of 1.5–22 Hz, the inferred Qs values range from approximately 398 to 4399, Qi from 185 to 1390, and Qt from 120 to 1041, revealing a pronounced frequency dependence of attenuation. The observed Qs–frequency relationship is then interpreted using a von Kármán autocorrelation model, yielding crustal heterogeneity parameters ε = 0.048, κ = 0.32, and a = 8.0 km. These parameters reproduce the empirical Qs curve and are used to generate random heterogeneous media for numerical simulations of high-frequency wave propagation. By integrating observation-based heterogenous crustal modeling, this study quantitatively constrains the influence of crustal heterogeneity on high-frequency seismic wave propagation and provides a physical basis for refining strong ground motion prediction models and improving the reliability of seismic hazard assessments.

How to cite: Lee, S., Cho, C. S., and Song, S. G.: High-Frequency Seismic Wave Simulations in Qs-Constrained von Kármán Random Media for the 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake, South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2494, 2026.

EGU26-2933 | Orals | SM6.4

Integrating Seismic Anisotropy, Attenuation, and Machine Learning for Advanced Subsurface Characterization 

Fateh Bouchaala, Jun Matsushima, and Guibin Zhao

Seismic anisotropy and attenuation, often quantified by the inverse of the quality factor (), are powerful, but often underexploited, indicators of fracture architecture, fluid content, and small-scale heterogeneity in the subsurface. At the same time, machine-learning (ML) methods offer flexible, data-driven mappings between seismic attributes and subsurface properties yet are not often designed to exploit seismic anisotropy and attenuation. In this contribution, an integrated workflow that combines laboratory measurements, borehole and VSP data, and surface seismic attributes with ML modelling to achieve advanced subsurface characterization in fractured carbonate systems.

Seismic waveforms collected in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), were recorded at wide frequency range from Hertz to MHz, in the field and laboratory. The lithology of Abu Dhabi subsurface is dominated by carbonates, which are known by their high heterogeneity and multiple fracturing systems. To address the complexity caused by lithology, new methods and processing workflows have been developed and applied on the data. This includes new methods for calculating seismic attenuation from surface seismic, vertical seismic profiling (VSP), and sonic data, allowing an estimate of attenuation magnitude and its anisotropy, in addition to separating between scattering and intrinsic attenuation.

The study includes a suite of field and laboratory studies that quantify azimuthal P-wave attenuation, separate intrinsic and scattering contributions, and relate these to fracture systems and tar-mat occurrence in Abu Dhabi carbonate subsurface. These include multi-offset azimuthal VSP analyses that recover fracture strike and discriminate between open and cemented fractures using attenuation anisotropy, detailed attenuation-mode separation from VSP and sonic data, AVAz-based fracture characterization from 3D surface seismic, and ultrasonic measurements that document the sensitivity of  to petrophysical properties and saturation in carbonate core plugs. Building on this physical understanding, we extend recent work on ML-based prediction of Thomsen’s parameters from synthetic and VSP data to explicitly incorporate multi-scale attenuation attributes. Training data is generated by finite-difference modeling in anisotropic, fractured carbonate media constrained by well logs, FMI, and core information from an offshore Abu Dhabi oilfield. Input features include azimuthally dependent amplitudes of direct and reflected waves, frequency- and traveltime–derived attributes. We benchmark several ML regressors (support vector regression, extreme gradient boosting, multilayer perceptrons, and 1D convolutional neural networks) and use explainable AI tools to rank the relative importance of attenuation- versus kinematics-based features.

This study demonstrates that jointly exploiting anisotropy, attenuation, and ML substantially improves the interpretability and resolution of fracture and fluid systems in complex carbonate media. The proposed workflow is generic and can be transferred to other fractured and heterogeneous settings, offering a practical route to physics-aware, data-driven seismic characterization for reservoir development and monitoring. 

How to cite: Bouchaala, F., Matsushima, J., and Zhao, G.: Integrating Seismic Anisotropy, Attenuation, and Machine Learning for Advanced Subsurface Characterization, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2933, 2026.

EGU26-3654 | Posters on site | SM6.4

A high-resolution broadband crustal Lg attenuation model beneath Colombia and its implication for triple-junction tectonics 

Lian-Feng Zhao, Zhen Liu, Xiao-Bi Xie, Carlos A. Vargas, Baofeng Tian, and Zhen-Xing Yao

The existence of a typical triple junction in Colombia is crucial for understanding plate convergence and coupling among the South American Plate, the subducting Nazca Plate, and the Caribbean Plate. However, locating this triple junction is challenging due to complex geodynamic evolution and uncertainty in the slab boundaries. Here, we developed a high-resolution Lg-wave attenuation model for Colombia and surrounding areas to constrain crustal magmatic activity, link deep processes with surface volcanism, and identify potential slab boundaries. The area encompassing Central America, western Colombia, and Ecuador exhibits strong Lg attenuation and a concentration of volcanoes, indicating thermal anomalies in the crust. In line with the velocity structure, volcanism, seismicity, and isotopic dating, the thermal anomalies associated with the subducting Nazca and Caribbean slabs suggest the presence of three subducting slabs beneath the South American Plate, with a triple junction located at approximately 7.5°N, 77°W. This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42430306).

How to cite: Zhao, L.-F., Liu, Z., Xie, X.-B., Vargas, C. A., Tian, B., and Yao, Z.-X.: A high-resolution broadband crustal Lg attenuation model beneath Colombia and its implication for triple-junction tectonics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3654, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3654, 2026.

Anelasticity is an intrinsic property of Earth’s interior and it is closely associated with temperature, partial melt, and water content. To date, the development of seismic attenuation models has lagged behind that of velocity models, due to the difficulty in distinguishing attenuation effects from velocity heterogeneities in waveforms, as well as inconsistencies across inversion methods and their resulting attenuation structures. To address these challenges, we recently developed a novel anelastic scattering-integral-based full waveform inversion (FWI) method. Its effectiveness has been verified through numerical experiments using the Northwestern United States region as a realistic case study. Specially, the method can accurately solve 3D anelastic wave equation even in the presence of strong attenuation and computes full anelastic sensitivity kernels incorporating both effects of physical dispersion and dissipation. As an application, we utilize abundant seismic waveform data from the China National Seismic Network to establish, for the first time, a high-resolution 3D anelastic structure model of the lithosphere and asthenosphere in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Waveform comparisons and checkerboard tests verify the reliability of the inverted model, which achieves a maximum horizontal resolution of 0.6°×0.6°and a maximum vertical resolution of 25 km. This highly accurate anelastic model provides important structural constraints for understanding the deep processes of material extrusion at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau.

This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42204056).

How to cite: Wang, N.: 3D anelastic full waveform inversion and its application, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4131, 2026.

EGU26-4344 | Posters on site | SM6.4

Probing Mantle Deformation beneath the Southern Granulite Terrain Using Seismic Attenuation Anisotropy 

Ritima Das, Faris Hamza, and Utpal Saikia

The Southern Granulite Terrain (SGT) in peninsular India is a high-grade metamorphic region formed by intricate Precambrian tectonic processes, serves as a natural laboratory for examining the seismic properties of solid continental lithosphere. Attenuation anisotropy shows how seismic energy loss changes with direction, giving extra information beyond just how fast seismic waves move through rock. It is particularly good at showing processes like grain-boundary relaxation, dislocation creep, and fluid assisted deformation. We have measured the shear-wave splitting parameters (, ) and attenuation anisotropy (, ) for the SKS phases recorded at 13 stations spread over the SGT using the second eigenvalue minimisation method and the instantaneous frequency matching technique, respectively. The attenuation anisotropy parameters for each station, obtained through a weighted-stacking process, vary from 0.1s to 0.85s for differential attenuation () with an average of ~0.36s and -82° to 88° for fast polarisation direction (), with the apparent fast wave () attenuating more, indicating the presence of fluid-filled fractures. Removing the attenuation effects, the station-averaged delay time () lies between 0.73s and 1.27s, with an average of ~0.99s, and fast polarisation direction () lies between -87° and 58°. We further analysed the backazimuthal dependence of the splitting parameters. The melt inclusions and the anisotropic layers beneath each station are characterised using the squirt flow model. The fractures are striking at an angle between ~49° and ~306°, and dipping at an angle between ~36° and 50°. The anisotropic layer thickness varies from 33 km to 115 km beneath the stations. Variations in attenuation anisotropy across major shear zones, like the Palghat–Cauvery and Achankovil sutures, offer important information about reactivated shear deformation, fossil lithospheric fabrics, and potential asthenospheric contributions in the SGT. This information helps to clarify the tectonothermal evolution of this ancient crustal block.

How to cite: Das, R., Hamza, F., and Saikia, U.: Probing Mantle Deformation beneath the Southern Granulite Terrain Using Seismic Attenuation Anisotropy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4344, 2026.

EGU26-4670 | ECS | Orals | SM6.4

Crustal Lg and upper mantle Pn attenuation structure beneath the Yangtze craton and its implications for the ancient cratonic nucleus 

Lin Shen, Lian-Feng Zhao, Xu Chang, Xiao-Bi Xie, and Zhen-Xing Yao

Cratons are traditionally considered to be long-lived and stable owing to their great thickness and rigid lithospheric roots. However, increasing evidence suggests that some cratons have experienced significant lithospheric thinning and destruction. The Sichuan basin, a cratonic basin within the Yangtze Craton, is widely regarded as the cratonic nucleus owing to its long-term tectonic stability and continuous sedimentary subsidence. However, the oldest Archean basement of the Yangtze Craton, represented by the Kongling Complex, is mainly exposed in the eastern Sichuan Basin, raising the question of the spatial location of the ancient nucleus for the Yangtze Craton. Since the Mesozoic, the Yangtze Craton has been affected by the combined influences of Paleo-Pacific subduction and Cenozoic eastward extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau, and the preservation and spatial distribution of its deep lithospheric root remain poorly constrained by geophysical observations. Here, we constructed a high-resolution crustal-upper mantle attenuation model using regional Pn and Lg phases to constrain the coupling/decoupling characteristics between crust and upper mantle beneath the Yangtze Craton. The weak crustal Lg attenuation in the Sichuan Basin does not correspond to the weak Pn attenuation in the upper mantle, indicating that the lithospheric root may mechanically migrate to the eastern Sichuan Basin. The phenomenon is likely associated with the Cenozoic eastward extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau, yet the eastern Yangtze Craton appears to have undergone overall lithospheric thinning and destruction related to Mesozoic Paleo-Pacific subduction. This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42474084) and Deep Earth Probe and Mineral Resources Exploration-National Science and Technology Major Project (2025ZD1005302).

How to cite: Shen, L., Zhao, L.-F., Chang, X., Xie, X.-B., and Yao, Z.-X.: Crustal Lg and upper mantle Pn attenuation structure beneath the Yangtze craton and its implications for the ancient cratonic nucleus, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4670, 2026.

EGU26-4722 | Posters on site | SM6.4

Rayleigh-wave attenuation in the southern Korean Peninsula from Helmholtz tomography 

Seungwoo Park and Sung-Joon Chang

Seismic attenuation offers insights into subsurface material properties, which are independent of the velocity information obtained from seismic tomography. Because seismic‐wave amplitude attenuation is sensitive to several factors such as temperature, mineral grain size, partial melt, and compositional variations, quantitative attenuation analysis provides additional constraints on the thermal and rheological state of the Earth’s interior. However, compared to seismic imaging studies, attenuation characteristics of the subsurface beneath the southern Korean Peninsula remain poorly constrained. In this study, we analyze seismic waveforms recorded at approximately 40 broadband seismic stations deployed across the southern Korean Peninsula between 2009 and 2012, and derive preliminary Rayleigh-wave attenuation estimates over the period range of 20–120 s. The results show generally low attenuation at short periods (20–30 s), which are primarily sensitive to the crust and uppermost mantle, whereas relatively high attenuation is observed at longer periods (80–120 s), corresponding to asthenospheric depths. These patterns likely reflect increasing temperature and rheological heterogeneity in the upper mantle. Future work will expand station coverage and invert the attenuation measurements to construct a detailed depth‐dependent attenuation model beneath the southern Korean Peninsula.

How to cite: Park, S. and Chang, S.-J.: Rayleigh-wave attenuation in the southern Korean Peninsula from Helmholtz tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4722, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4722, 2026.

EGU26-5110 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.4

Multi-parameter seismic attenuation tomography of the Calabrian crust (Italy) using MuRAT3D 

Gaia Caporale, Mario La Rocca, Rita de Nardis, and Luca De Siena

Abstract

Seismic attenuation, controlled by scattering and intrinsic absorption processes, represents a fundamental property for investigating crustal heterogeneity, fracturing, and fluid distribution. Here we present results from 3D attenuation tomography in the Calabrian Arc (Southern Italy), based on a relocated local-earthquake dataset analyzed within the MuRAT3D framework (De Siena et al. 2014). The study relies on a dedicated dataset of ~490 local earthquakes recorded between 2016 and 2024 by integrating local and national seismic networks. Event selection was designed to ensure homogeneous spatial and depth coverage while limiting clustering effects. P- and S-wave arrivals were manually picked, and earthquakes were relocated using a combined deterministic–probabilistic approach, producing a robust dataset optimized for attenuation analysis (Schweitzer, 2001; Chiappetta and La Rocca, 2024).

MuRAT3D enables a multi-parameter characterization of seismic energy loss by exploiting different portions of the seismic waveform. Scattering is investigated through Peak Delay (PD) derived from envelope broadening, while total and intrinsic attenuation are described by the quality factors Q and Qc. Analyses were carried out at discrete frequencies (1.5, 3, 6, 12, and 18 Hz), showing that only specific frequency bands yield stable and physically consistent attenuation parameters, reflecting the validity limits of the underlying assumptions and different seismic wave propagation regimes. The resulting 3D attenuation images display coherent, laterally variable patterns, with strong contrasts between continental and offshore domains and localized anomalies related to pronounced crustal heterogeneities and possible interactions with deep structures.Ongoing analyses aim to further refine attenuation patterns and their geological interpretation.

How to cite: Caporale, G., La Rocca, M., de Nardis, R., and De Siena, L.: Multi-parameter seismic attenuation tomography of the Calabrian crust (Italy) using MuRAT3D, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5110, 2026.

EGU26-5341 | ECS | Orals | SM6.4

Pn-wave attenuation tomography in Anatolia and its implications for slab break-off, mantle upwelling, and plateau uplift 

Qing-Yang Cheng, Lian-Feng Zhao, Tuna Eken, Xiao-Bi Xie, Hong-Yi Li, and Zhen-Xing Yao

Within the collision zone between the Arabian and Eurasian plates, the Anatolian Plateau represents an early stage in the closure of the Neo-Tethys Ocean (Teknik et al., 2025). The uplift mechanism of the Anatolian Plateau remains debated, as the primary geodynamic drivers likely vary regionally. While upper-crustal shortening dominates the northern margin of Central Anatolia, slab break-off and mantle upwelling are key along the southern and interior margins (Şengör et al., 2008; Yildirim et al., 2011). These processes are not isolated but may be geodynamically linked through subsequent shifts in plate motion and mantle flow following slab break-off. The Pn wave is a seismic phase that propagates primarily within the uppermost mantle. Its attenuation characteristics serve as a proxy for physical properties such as temperature, pressure, and water content in this region. Therefore, high-resolution attenuation tomography of the uppermost mantle using Pn waves can provide key constraints on the tectonic evolution of the Anatolian Plateau. 

In this study, we collected 23,830 seismic waveform data from 853 events recorded by 717 seismic stations between July 1996 and August 2025. Using a joint inversion method (Zhao et al., 2015), we constructed a broadband (0.05 - 20.0 Hz) high-resolution (1.0  1.0) Pn-wave attenuation model for the Anatolian Plateau. A prominent high-Q region observed in the southwestern part of the study area represents the Aegean Slab while a localized high-Q zone surrounded by low-Q anomalies (at approximately 36°E, 39°N) correlates with volcanism in the Central Anatolian Plateau. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42430306).

How to cite: Cheng, Q.-Y., Zhao, L.-F., Eken, T., Xie, X.-B., Li, H.-Y., and Yao, Z.-X.: Pn-wave attenuation tomography in Anatolia and its implications for slab break-off, mantle upwelling, and plateau uplift, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5341, 2026.

Seismic attenuation provides key constraints on the thermo-mechanical state and small-scale heterogeneity of the crust, but high-frequency observations are strongly affected by the coupling between intrinsic attenuation (Qi) and scattering attenuation (Qsc). This coupling hampers conventional attenuation inversions, particularly in tectonically complex regions such as the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. High-frequency seismic coda wave envelopes provide critical insights into the influence of attenuation structures on energy evolution and serve as an essential data source for scattering studies.  In this study, we combine unsupervised machine learning and physics-based envelope modeling to investigate crustal intrinsic and scattering attenuation across the Longmenshan Fault Zone and adjacent regions. We first apply a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) to tens of thousands of high-frequency (2–4 Hz) P- and S-wave envelopes, including their coda, recorded by a regional seismic array. By conditioning on source–receiver distance, the CVAE suppresses geometric effects and extracts latent variables that characterize lateral and vertical variations in envelope shape. Two latent variables are sufficient to describe the dominant envelope features: the first is primarily associated with variations in P-to-S energy ratios and correlates with intrinsic attenuation, while the second reflects changes in envelope width and peak timing, consistent with scattering strength. The spatial distribution of the intrinsic-attenuation-related latent variable reveals a clear contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin, whereas scattering-related variations are mainly controlled by local small-scale heterogeneity and show no systematic dependence on large-scale tectonic units. Guided by these results, we further perform three-dimensional high-frequency envelope modeling using radiative transport theory on ~61,000 three-component seismograms. We constructed two-layer models of intrinsic attenuation and small-scale scattering structures for the crust of Sichuan Basin and Tibetan Plateau regions, respectively. The sedimentary layer of the Sichuan Basin displays strong scattering and intrinsic attenuation, suggesting a porous, potentially fluid-rich structure, which aligns with the presence of abundant oil and gas resources. The relatively weak scattering and intrinsic attenuation in the Sichuan Basin's crust indicate its nature as an ancient, stable geological block. The lower crust of the Tibetan Plateau shows stronger intrinsic attenuation than the upper crust but significantly weaker scattering, suggesting the presence of a high-temperature, viscous flow structure in the region. The upper crust of the Tibetan Plateau exhibits significantly stronger scattering and intrinsic attenuation compared to that of the Sichuan Basin, reflecting the extensively faulted and fractured structure due to ongoing tectonic collisions.

How to cite: Zhang, B., Li, J., Ni, S., and Zhang, H.: Crustal Scattering and Intrinsic Attenuation Across the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau Revealed by High-Frequency Coda Waves, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6112, 2026.

EGU26-6591 | ECS | Orals | SM6.4

Spatiotemporal monitoring of soil moisture dynamics from Rayleigh-wave attenuation: A controlled field experiment 

Xinyu Liu, Binbin Mi, Jianghai Xia, Jianbo Guan, Jie Zhou, and Haoyuan Sun

Seismic attenuation provides a highly sensitive constraint on fluid-driven processes in the shallow subsurface. These attenuation-derived spatiotemporal insights complement conventional seismic velocity monitoring and can be used for environmental monitoring and engineered subsurface infrastructure management. In this study, we implemented time-lapse Rayleigh-wave attenuation measurements during controlled shallow water injections to quantify the coupled evolution of seismic attenuation and pore-fluid infiltration. The monitoring experiment was conducted over a 14-day period at a localized test site where two vertical wells were hydraulically connected by a permeable pipeline. The frequency-dependent Rayleigh-wave attenuation coefficients are estimated from spectral-ratio slope fitting of multichannel active-source surface-wave records. These measurements are subsequently combined with phase velocities and S- and P-wave velocities to invert for depth-dependent energy dissipation factors  and  within a layered medium. The resulting attenuation variations are interpreted as proxies for changes in fluid saturation and hydrological properties in the shallow subsurface. The attenuation images clearly delineate the boundary between the pipeline and the surrounding medium and exhibit pronounced temporal variations driven by injection-induced fluid migration. Daily time-lapse variations of attenuation over the 14-day experiment reveal frequency-dependent responses to the intermittent injection schedule, with peak values near the period of maximum injection. These patterns reflect the migration and redistribution of pore fluids within the near-surface formation. The inverted Q images further identify localized low-Q zones around the pipeline and the two wells, indicating enhanced energy dissipation associated with fluid accumulation and increasing saturation. This study establishes a powerful framework for monitoring fluid migration and its physical impacts from time-lapse seismic attenuation. Our results highlight the importance of attenuation-based imaging for advancing high-resolution characterization of near-surface hydrological and engineered subsurface environments.

How to cite: Liu, X., Mi, B., Xia, J., Guan, J., Zhou, J., and Sun, H.: Spatiotemporal monitoring of soil moisture dynamics from Rayleigh-wave attenuation: A controlled field experiment, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6591, 2026.

We estimated shear-wave splitting parameters and splitting intensity using core-refracted phases (SKS and SKKS) recorded at 90 digital broadband seismic stations across the South Indian Shield, encompassing the Western Dharwar Craton (WDC), Eastern Dharwar Craton (EDC), and Southern Granulite Terrain (SGT). Observed delay times range from 0.4 to 1.5 s, with a mean of ~0.9 s, while fast polarization directions vary from NW to NE–NNE. Although delay times show no significant variation among the three tectonic domains, fast polarization directions exhibit pronounced spatial differences. The EDC is characterized predominantly by NE–NNE orientations, the WDC by N–S to NW directions, and the SGT by a mixed pattern ranging from NW to NE. The splitting intensity varies smoothly across the region, with values ranging from 0.8 to 1.0. These observations suggest that seismic anisotropy beneath the South Indian Shield reflects a complex interplay between the Archean lithospheric architecture and subsequent domain-specific deformation driven by deep Earth processes.

How to cite: Saikia, U., Shameer, S., and Das, R.: Seismic Anisotropy and Splitting Intensity Beneath the South Indian Shield: Evidence for Archean Lithospheric Fabric and Post-Archean Deformation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6793, 2026.

EGU26-6910 | Posters on site | SM6.4

A spectral-ratio-constrained joint inversion of source parameters and attenuation 

Xu Chang, Lin Shen, and Lian-Feng Zhao

Strong trade-offs between earthquake source and attenuation term remain a major challenge in source parameters inversion and attenuation structure. Spectral ratio methods alleviate this problem by using nearby small earthquakes with highly correlated waveforms as empirical Green’s functions (EGF), thereby reducing path and site effects and enabling robust relative estimation of source parameters, particularly corner frequency. However, limited signal-to-noise ratios and spikes at high frequencies significantly affect the estimation of corner frequency. In addition, different choices of EGF may further increase the uncertainty in corner frequency estimations. To reduce the effects of high-frequency spectral instability and EGF selection on spectral ratios, we first perform single-spectrum fitting to obtain physically constrained and smoothed amplitude spectra. These fitted spectra are then used to construct spectral ratios, from which corner frequencies can be robustly estimated. The source parameters constrained by the spectral ratio analysis are then incorporated as prior information, with the introduction of controlled perturbations, a joint inversion of the source parameters (M0 and fc) and the attenuation factor t* is carried out using single spectra fitting. We applied this method to earthquakes that occurred in the southern Sichuan Basin. We applied this method to 257 earthquakes with magnitudes ≥1.5 recorded in the Weiyuan area of the southern Sichuan Basin, China, between November 2015 and November 2016. Seismic moments and corner frequencies are obtained through the combined use of spectral ratio analysis and single spectral fitting, from which stress drops are estimated assuming a circular crack model. The resulting t* measurements are subsequently used to invert for the regional attenuation structure, providing an independent evaluation for the robustness of the inferred source parameters. This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42474084).

How to cite: Chang, X., Shen, L., and Zhao, L.-F.: A spectral-ratio-constrained joint inversion of source parameters and attenuation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6910, 2026.

EGU26-8977 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.4

Quantifying attenuation and scattering in skull-like phantoms using the spectral element method 

Isha Lohan, Patrick Marty, and Andreas Fichtner

In both geophysics and medical physics, the propagation of seismic waves through highly complex, heterogeneous viscoacoustic-viscoelastic media follows the same physical principles. The attenuation of seismic waves in the Earth's heterogeneous interior is identical to the way ultrasound waves behave when passing through the human skull or bones (transcranial ultrasound).
In this work, we utilize the core concepts of wave physics and spectral element method (SEM), a well-known numerical simulation technique within geophysics that is used to study the scattering and attenuation caused by the skull during transcranial ultrasound. In the Earth, P-waves can convert to S-waves at interfaces; similarly, at the interface of the skull, ultrasound undergo mode conversions, and also generates Lamb waves, which further complicates the energy transmission. Despite the massive difference in physical scale, both medical ultrasound and geophysics involve a similar number of wavelengths between the source and receiver.

The interface between the skull and soft brain tissue creates a high impedance contrast causing most of the energy to reflect and only a small amount of energy is transmitted through skull.
3D numerical phantoms replicating skull-like properties with varying thicknesses were constructed. SEM, a high-order numerical modeling technique, is used for full waveform modeling of both elastic-acoustic and viscoacoustic-viscoelastic waves through heterogeneous media. A conformal hexahedral mesh is implemented to precisely resolve the irregular geometry of the bone. This ensures that the simulated reflections and refractions are physically accurate and thereby avoid numerical staircasing artifacts. 

The difference in the amplitude and waveform propagation is studied between the acoustic-elastic and viscoacoustic-viscoelastic mediums. Elastic modeling assumes energy is conserved, while viscoelastic modeling incorporates the quality factor (Q) to simulate intrinsic attenuation. 
Amplitude decay measures the difference between the peak pressure value of the transmitted waves. Amplitude decay and difference between wavefields are analyzed to quantify how the heterogeneous internal structure affects the wavefront, and also demonstrating that SEM, a proven geophysical method, effectively simulates and quantifies medical ultrasound wave propagation.

How to cite: Lohan, I., Marty, P., and Fichtner, A.: Quantifying attenuation and scattering in skull-like phantoms using the spectral element method, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8977, 2026.

EGU26-9760 | ECS | Orals | SM6.4

Ambient Noise Tomography Reveals Heterogeneous Structure of the Igneous Rocks in Hong Kong’s Upper Crust 

Zhanwen Li, Xi Wang, Xin Liu, Hongfeng Yang, and Guochun Zhao

Hong Kong, one of the most densely populated financial centers in the world, has received limited attention in subsurface structure imaging due to its tectonic quiescence. However, it sits atop the core of the Lianhuashan Fault Zone and was a center of multiple super volcanic eruptions during Yanshanian movement. The complex fault systems and widespread geothermal resources in adjacent region are legacies of these intense tectonic events. We deployed a temporary array of 13 portable seismic nodal sensors covering Hong Kong core area and recorded 21-day seismic data. Using ambient noise adjoint tomography, we imaged the upper 8 km of the crust at high resolution. Significant fault-controlled heterogeneity revealed indicates both geothermal potential and seismic hazard. A deep-seated fault beneath Lantau Island experienced intense fault dilation and volcanic activity as it served as a main magma conduit during Mesozoic. It left behind fractured felsic rocks (low velocity) and rigid mafic intrusions (high velocity), forming a potential seismogenic structure. Pronounced low-velocity anomaly beneath Tai Mo Shan may reflect geothermal activity. Combined with pervasive fracturing and abundant precipitation in Hong Kong, this suggests the presence of an uplift-driven convective geothermal system in the region.

How to cite: Li, Z., Wang, X., Liu, X., Yang, H., and Zhao, G.: Ambient Noise Tomography Reveals Heterogeneous Structure of the Igneous Rocks in Hong Kong’s Upper Crust, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9760, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9760, 2026.

EGU26-10547 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.4

Lg Wave Attenuation across the Indo-Eurasian Collision Zone 

Shirish Bose, Chandrani Singh, and Arun Singh

The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates has resulted in one of the most tectonically active zones in the world. To characterize the crustal structure and thermal properties of the region, we present a high resolution Lg wave attenuation model along with Lg wave propagation efficiency map for the Indian Shield, the Himalayas, and the Tibetan Plateau and neighbouring areas. Using a dataset comprising more than 1,800 regional earthquakes recorded by 795 broadband seismic stations, we inverted spectral amplitudes using the least squares orthogonal factorization (LSQR) method to map the lateral variation of the Lg wave quality factor (QLg ) and its frequency dependence (η). The resulting tomographic images reveal a sharp contrast in crustal attenuation across the collision zone. The Indian Shield exhibits significant tectonic stability and low attenuation (high QLg ) along with high Lg wave propagation efficiency, consistent with the transmission of seismic energy through a rigid cratonic lithosphere. Conversely, the Tibetan Plateau is dominated by widespread high attenuation (low QLg ) and significantly reduced Lg wave propagation efficiency, with the lowest values observed beneath the Qiangtang and Songpan-Ganzi terranes. The variation in the η parameter highlights the distinction between intrinsic and scattering attenuation, correlating strongly with regional heat flow variations. We observe a clear spatial correlation between low QLg anomalies and the presence of partial melt or aqueous fluids within the Tibetan crust. These results provide new insights into the geophysical understanding of the collision zone and the geometry of the crustal structure.

How to cite: Bose, S., Singh, C., and Singh, A.: Lg Wave Attenuation across the Indo-Eurasian Collision Zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10547, 2026.

EGU26-12286 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.4

New Insight into the Indo-Burma Subduction Zone: Implications from Seismic Attenuation Tomography in Central Myanmar 

Yilin Feng, Yinshuang Ai, Zhuoran Zhang, Yumei He, Mingming Jiang, S. Shawn Wei, Chit Thet Mon, Myo Thant, and Kyaing Sein

Myanmar is located at the southeastern margin of the collision zone between the Indian and Eurasian plates, occupying a key position in the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis. It serves as a natural laboratory for studying oblique subduction, accretionary orogeny, and crust-mantle dynamics. However, the complex crust-mantle kinematic decoupling mechanism in this region, as well as the control of deep slab geometry on magmatic thermal evolution, remain subjects of debate. Since seismic attenuation is highly sensitive to temperature, partial melting, and fluid content, conducting high-resolution attenuation tomography is crucial for revealing the deep physical state of materials and geodynamic processes in this area. In this study, we performed high-resolution 3-D P-wave attenuation tomography of the Myanmar Orogen using seismic data recorded by 70 stations from the China-Myanmar Geophysical Survey in the Myanmar Orogen (CMGSMO I) between June 2016 and February 2018. We utilized 2,313 seismic events obtained from a deep-learning-based catalog and extracted 14,273 high-quality P-wave t* measurements. By employing the trans-dimensional Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, we constructed a high-precision 3-D attenuation model of the study region. The inversion results reveal two significant high-attenuation anomalies: a shallow high-attenuation zone beneath the Indo-Burma Ranges (IBR) at depths of 0–40 km, and a deep high-attenuation anomaly beneath the Central Basin at depths of 80–120 km. The shallow high-attenuation zone coincides well with low-velocity structures; we attribute this to high porosity and fluid saturation within the accretionary wedge sediments, as well as fluid overpressure and rheological weakening caused by deep metamorphic dehydration. This rheologically weak layer likely acts as a lower crustal detachment, facilitating kinematic decoupling between the upper crust and the underlying lithosphere. The deep high-attenuation anomaly reflects asthenospheric upwelling triggered by a "slab window" resulting from the tearing of the Indian Plate. The injection of high-temperature material into the mantle wedge induces partial melting and significantly enhances seismic wave attenuation.

How to cite: Feng, Y., Ai, Y., Zhang, Z., He, Y., Jiang, M., Wei, S. S., Mon, C. T., Thant, M., and Sein, K.: New Insight into the Indo-Burma Subduction Zone: Implications from Seismic Attenuation Tomography in Central Myanmar, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12286, 2026.

EGU26-13919 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.4

Attenuation Tomography Analysis in the Val d’Agri Oilfield 

Martina Avella, Luca De Siena, Alexander Garcia, and Lucia Zaccarelli

The Val d’Agri basin in southern Italy is largest onshore hydrocarbon systems in Europe and, at the same time, one of the most seismically active sedimentary basins in the Apennines. This area appears as an ideal natural laboratory for investigating how fluids, rock damage and stress interact in the shallow crust thanks to the production and fluid injection that take place in this oilfield.
We analyze a dense local earthquake dataset recorded in the Val d’Agri area using seismic attenuation tomography. Attenuation is imaged with the MuRAT workflow, a Matlab algorithm that exploits multi-frequency measurements of direct and coda-wave amplitudes to recover three-dimensional distributions of scattering and absorption. These parameters are highly sensitive to fracture density, lithology, and fluid saturation, and therefore provide a physically meaningful view of the reservoir and fault system.
The resulting attenuation volumes allow us to identify zones of strong energy loss and high heterogeneity that may correspond to highly fractured, fluid-rich areas within the sedimentary cover and along major fault systems. Such features are particularly relevant in a georesource context, as they can act both as preferential fluid pathways and as mechanically weak volumes prone to seismic activation. Results of these analyses provide new light on the internal structure of the reservoir and its surrounding fault network, while also highlighting their interaction with industrial operations.
Overall, this work demonstrates how seismic energy attenuation tomography can provide a powerful framework for imaging fluid–fault interactions in active hydrocarbon systems. The results offer new insights into the processes controlling induced and triggered seismicity in the Val d’Agri basin and contribute to the development of geophysically informed strategies for sustainable resource exploitation and seismic risk management.

How to cite: Avella, M., De Siena, L., Garcia, A., and Zaccarelli, L.: Attenuation Tomography Analysis in the Val d’Agri Oilfield, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13919, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13919, 2026.

EGU26-14980 | ECS | Orals | SM6.4

Experimental characterization of urban-like scattering and attenuation from a dense nodal array: implications for seismic ground motion 

Malcon Humberto Celorio Murillo, Philippe Guéguen, Rita Touma, and Philippe Roux

Attenuation is a fundamental process of seismic wave propagation, yet its role in site–city
interaction remains poorly constrained and rarely quantified. In particular, un- derstanding
how buildings collectively dissipate seismic energy through scattering and absorption is essential
for assessing earthquake impact in urban areas. Numerical studies have recently introduced the
concepts of urban attenuation and urban mean free path to describe these processes. However,
observational evidence based on real data is still lack- ing, leaving open questions about how
such mechanisms manifest in practice.
In this study, we address this gap using the META-FORET experiment, in which a dense
pine forest is considered as a natural analogue of an urban environment. Trees act as distributed
reso- nant scatterers, allowing us to investigate urban-like scattering and attenuation processes
under well-characterized and repeatable conditions. We analyze both ambient noise and active
shot data to extract key ground motion parameters that are directly relevant to seismic hazard
assessment, including horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (H/V), spatial variability of ground
motion, wave attenuation and intensity indices. Passive data reveal frequency-dependent
scattering signatures around tree resonances (20 and 50 Hz), includ- ing perturbations of H/V
curves, reduced coherence and absorption.
Active shot analyses further show a systematic reduction of Arias intensity and a strong
increase in Trifunac duration within the forest compared to the open field, especially near
resonance frequencies. These observations indicate that resonant scatterers redistribute seismic
energy, reducing direct-wave amplitudes while enhancing coda wave durations.
This study provides the first experimental quantification of urban-like scattering and
attenuation from real seismic data. By bridging fundamental wave physics and ground motion
indicators, we propose a noise-based technique to characterize seismic wave atten- uation in
urban environments.

Keywords: urban-like scattering, wavefield coherence, absorption, seismic attenuation,
spectral ratios.

How to cite: Celorio Murillo, M. H., Guéguen, P., Touma, R., and Roux, P.: Experimental characterization of urban-like scattering and attenuation from a dense nodal array: implications for seismic ground motion, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14980, 2026.

EGU26-15304 | Posters on site | SM6.4

Attenuation Tomography of the Baihetan Reservoir: Separating Fluids from Fractures in Induced Seismicity 

Yansong Hu, Luca De Siena, Ruifeng Liu, Xinjuan He, and Lisheng Xu

Impoundment of the Baihetan Reservoir has triggered intense micro-seismicity, raising questions about the underlying hydro-mechanical drivers. While stress drop variations suggest fluid lubrication reduces effective normal stress, distinguishing fluid-saturated conduits from dry fracture networks remains challenging with traditional tomography. Standard attenuation imaging (Qt-1) inherently conflates scattering (structural heterogeneity) and intrinsic absorption (anelastic loss), obscuring the true physical state of the subsurface.

To resolve this, we apply Multi-Resolution Attenuation Tomography (MuRAT) to a dense local seismic array dataset. By utilizing Radiative Transfer Theory, we independently invert for scattering (Qsc) and absorption (Qi) attenuation coefficients. Our results reveal a distinct spatial decoupling of these mechanisms. Scattering anomalies (low-Qsc) correlate strongly with the surface traces of the Zemuhe and Xiaojiang fault zones, effectively imaging the pre-existing fracture network. In contrast, intrinsic absorption anomalies (low-Qi) are concentrated at depths of 5–10 km. These high-absorption features are spatially consistent with theoretical zones of fluid infiltration. By separating structural damage from fluid presence, we provide independent geophysical constraints that support fluid-diffusion hypotheses derived from source parameter analysis.

 

How to cite: Hu, Y., De Siena, L., Liu, R., He, X., and Xu, L.: Attenuation Tomography of the Baihetan Reservoir: Separating Fluids from Fractures in Induced Seismicity, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15304, 2026.

EGU26-17001 | Orals | SM6.4

Crustal Weakening by Mantle Upwelling in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau 

Haijiang Zhang, Jiachen Wang, Zengqian Hou, Bo Xu, Hao Guo, Clifford Thurber, and Robert van der Hilst

The conspicuous eastward expansion of the Tibetan Plateau is evident and uncontroversial from geological surface expressions and remote sensing, but the mechanisms that cause it have remained enigmatic. The extrusion has been attributed to ductile deformation of a weak crust. This is consistent with the discovery of mid-lower crustal low (seismic) velocity zones (LVZs), but the cause of crustal weakness and the origin and nature of the LVZs are debated, with competing hypotheses including channel flow from central Tibet, local fluid content, and mantle-derived processes. We present a high-resolution 3D seismic attenuation (Qp) model of the crust and uppermost mantle in southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Our results reveal high-attenuation anomalies in the middle-lower crust that overlap with previously imaged LVZs but extend across the Moho into the uppermost mantle. These anomalies correlate spatially with Cenozoic magmatism, mantle-derived helium isotope signatures, Zircon Hf-isotopes, and major strike-slip faults. This suggests that the crust in southeastern Tibetan plateau is weakened from below, possibly by upwelling induced by tearing of the subducted Indian slab.

How to cite: Zhang, H., Wang, J., Hou, Z., Xu, B., Guo, H., Thurber, C., and van der Hilst, R.: Crustal Weakening by Mantle Upwelling in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17001, 2026.

EGU26-19330 | Posters on site | SM6.4

Magnitude and source spectra estimation using an elastic radiative transfer modelling of seismic wave-field attenuations: application to a French dataset.  

Grégoire Heller, Olivier Sèbe, Ludovic Margerin, Paola Traversa, Marie Calvet, and Jessie Mayor

Accurate magnitude estimates and reliable propagation models are essential for seismic hazard assessment. Unfortunately, the magnitudes of small earthquakes remain subject to significant uncertainties, primarily due to complex high-frequency propagation effects. Similarly, spatial variations in attenuation properties are crucial for refining ground motion models and reducing epistemic uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment. This study proposes (1) to map attenuation properties (scattering and absorption) in Metropolitan France using the radiative transfer theory of elastic waves, and (2) to simultaneously estimate source and site spectra through a generalized inversion. The recovered source spectra provide access to the moment magnitude Mw​, corner frequency fc​, and apparent stress σapp​.

We apply the entire inversion procedure to approximately 21,000 recordings from the EPOS-FR and CEA databases, including events with local magnitudes ML​ ranging from 2.0 to 5.9, and stations with hypocentral distances of less than 250 km. The estimated attenuation maps reveal strong spatial and frequency-dependent variations. Scattering dominates absorption at low frequencies (< 1 Hz), while absorption prevails at high frequencies. Strong scattering anomalies are concentrated in recent sedimentary basins at low frequencies and in deformed regions or deep sedimentary basins at medium and high frequencies. Conversely, Variscan units exhibit low scattering attenuation, especially at low frequencies. Absorption is highest in the French Alps and the western Pyrenees and lowest in the Armorican Massif. Concurrently, a catalog of 1,279 Mw​ magnitudes and 577 site terms is established for Metropolitan France. The obtained magnitudes are consistent with those in the unified Euro-Mediterranean catalog. Its comparison with the SI-Hex catalog highlights the importance for correcting the attenuation variations before extracting source parameters and especially the magnitude. The analysis of the apparent stress σapp​ reveals a moderate increase with the seismic moment M0​ (scaling exponent of 0.24±0.08), without any marked regional trend. Finally, we emphasize the importance of rigorously correcting for site effects, using reference stations on bedrock and of ensuring inter-event connectivity during the generalized inversion process through the existence of common stations across event records. The next step is to integrate this approach and related results in CEA seismic alert operational framework.

How to cite: Heller, G., Sèbe, O., Margerin, L., Traversa, P., Calvet, M., and Mayor, J.: Magnitude and source spectra estimation using an elastic radiative transfer modelling of seismic wave-field attenuations: application to a French dataset. , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19330, 2026.

EGU26-1162 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.5

2-D Acoustic Full Waveform Ambient Noise Inversion 

Aileni Mahesh and Arjun Datta

We present a 2-D ambient noise full waveform inversion technique based on noise

cross-correlation sensitivity kernels. These kernels are constructed through the adjoint state

method, using a time-domain finite-difference solver to simulate both forward and

adjoint acoustic wavefields. Both the ambient noise source distribution and velocity structure

are treated as unknown. The inversion for source, and then structure parameters is

carried out sequentially. This sequential inversion is based on waveform energy misfit in

the case of noise source and cross-correlation travel time misfit in the case of velocity

structure. The present study focuses on applying this ambient noise full waveform inversion

methodology at local scales.

We use this approach to image the velocity structure beneath the Lonar crater in India.

This basaltic impact crater has close geological analogs on the Moon, and its internal structure

provides an important benchmark for assessing geometric models of crater formation.

We compare the results from our inversion with those obtained using conventional ambient

noise interferometry, which relies on Green’s function retrieval.

How to cite: Mahesh, A. and Datta, A.: 2-D Acoustic Full Waveform Ambient Noise Inversion, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1162, 2026.

Detailed imaging of shallow architectural structures in sedimentary basins is critical for seismic hazard assessment, especially in regions with complex tectonic environments. The Handan area, located at the junction of the Taihang Mountain Piedmont Fault and the Yongnian-Cixian Fault, features significant variations in Quaternary sediment thickness and frequent seismicity. However, thick sedimentary cover often obscures basement faults, necessitating high-resolution geophysical methods for structural characterization. In this study, we utilize continuous waveform data from a dense array of 500 short-period seismometers (approx. 1 km spacing) deployed in the Handan region from August to September 2024. We present a joint investigative approach combining the Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) method and higher-mode surface wave analysis. First, the HVSR method was employed to extract fundamental resonance frequencies (f0), which reveal a strong spatial correlation with local topographic and tectonic features. Second, we implemented the subarray-based frequency-Bessel (F-J) transform method to extract higher-mode Rayleigh wave dispersion curves from ambient noise cross-correlation functions. The inclusion of higher modes significantly enhances the imaging resolution and provides stronger constraints on the velocity structure compared to fundamental-mode methods. By inverting these dispersion curves, we obtained a high-resolution 3D S-wave velocity (Vs) model extending to a depth of 1.5 km. The results reveal pronounced velocity contrasts across major fault zones, particularly the Taihang Piedmont Fault. Furthermore, by integrating the f0 data with the Vs model, we derived a precise regional sedimentary thickness map. The estimated thickness ranges from tens of meters in the western mountainous areas to over 800 meters in the eastern basins, aligning well with existing borehole data and geological frameworks. These findings provide quantifiable constraints for earthquake hazard assessment, urban planning, and the identification of concealed faults in the North China Plain.

How to cite: Zhang, Y., Miao, W., Li, Y., and Wang, X.: Unveiling sedimentary architecture and concealed faults in the Handan region through HVSR and high-mode surface wave analysis based on a dense array, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2654, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2654, 2026.

Interpretation of self-potential (SP) anomalies is challenging due to the presence of spatially coherent background noise that can obscure or distort the source signal. These systematic background effects, analogous to regional components in gravity or magnetic methods, arise from measurement errors, heterogeneous subsurface conditions, or interactions among multiple anomalous sources. They often exhibit non-linear behavior that cannot be adequately addressed using a constant or linear slope. Earlier approaches attempted to remove such coherent patterns through baseline corrections or linear de-trending.This study presents an incremental algorithmic development for the interpretation of SP anomalies associated with a 2D inclined thin-sheet structure, explicitly accounting for non-linear background contributions while jointly estimating source geometry. Using the metaheuristic technique of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), the background field is parameterized as a second-order polynomial, with coefficients representing a constant offset, linear gradient, and quadratic curvature. These coefficients are simultaneously optimized with the source parameters using an L2-norm type misfit. The method is particularly stable with respect to depth and half-width of causative body; however, dip, location, and electric dipole moment can become ambiguous in the presence of noise. Therefore, separation of background trends from the signal is crucial for recovering the actual source parameters accurately. To assess solution stability, the spread of solution ensemble obtained from multiple independent PSO runs under identical conditions is analyzed. To further evaluate parameter sensitivity and interdependence, a correlation matrix is computed and crossplots are plotted. Among the background components, quadratic curvature exhibits the strongest coupling with the recovered source parameters, whereas the constant offset shows minimal influence compared with source-only optimization.When extended to multiple-source SP anomaly data, quadratic background modeling proved inadequate. Using a single quadratic polynomial failed to capture complex regional–local interactions, while assigning separate quadratic backgrounds to individual sources unnecessarily increased the dimensionality of the model space. To address this problem, a residual-based higher-order background modeling approach is implemented. In this approach, source parameters are optimized first, and the resulting residual field is iteratively approximated using a polynomial of the lowest order necessary to capture systematic background effects within the optimization framework, thereby avoiding the enforcement of a fixed polynomial degree.The proposed method is evaluated using synthetic SP anomaly data under both noise-free and noisy conditions and is subsequently validated using field datasets, including a single-source anomaly from the Surda region, India, and a multiple-source anomaly from KTB region, Germany.

Overall, the proposed approach offers benefit in improved recovery of source parameters by effectively decoupling source and background responses. The polynomial background represents long-wavelength, spatially coherent variations of physical origin superimposed on target signal. However, this approach increases model dimensionality, may lead to overfitting if search bounds are not appropriately constrained, and may result in non-unique polynomial representations in multi-source cases.

Keywords: Self-Potential (SP) method, 2D inclined thin-sheet, Non-linear background, Particle Swarm Optimization, Residual modeling.

How to cite: Chakraborty, S. and Sharma, S. P.: Interpretation of Self-Potential Anomalies over 2D Inclined Thin Sheet structure using Particle Swarm Optimization with Non-linear Polynomial Modeling of Background Effects, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2715, 2026.

Magnetic gradient tensors obtained from multiple magnetic sensors have been increasingly applied in various near-surface explorations. Accurate interpretation of high-resolution magnetic gradient tensor data requires analytical expressions due to simple geometric bodies. In this study, analytical expressions for the magnetic field and magnetic gradient tensor responses due to an elliptical cylinder are derived. An elliptical cylinder is geologically relevant, as igneous intrusions such as kimberlite pipes commonly exhibit elliptical cross-sections with axial symmetry and anisotropic radial extents in the strike and transverse directions. The magnetic responses are obtained by transforming the previously derived gravity gradient tensor of an elliptical cylinder using Poisson’s relation. The gravitational potential, defined as a triple integral, is differentiated twice with respect to each coordinate axis to obtain the gravity gradient tensor. And the gravity gradient tensors are then converted into magnetic responses in the real domain. The magnetic gradient tensor expressions in the real domain are integrated along the symmetry axis (z-direction) to reduce them to double integrals. By introducing complex variables, the real double integrals are transformed into complex integrals. Finally, using the complex form of Green’s theorem, the magnetic gradient tensors due to the elliptical cylinder are expressed as a one-dimensional line integral evaluated along the elliptical boundary.

 Acknowledgements: This work was supported in part by research project from KIGAM and G-LAMP project based on a National Research Foundation of Korea grant from the Ministry of Education (No. RS-2023-00301938), S. Korea. 

How to cite: Rim, H.: Closed-form expressions of the magnetic and magnetic gradient tensor due to an elliptical cylinder, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3204, 2026.

EGU26-3855 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.5

Sediment Thickness of European Basins Inferred from P-to-S Receiver Functions 

Dániel Kalmár, Gergely Fodor, Auggie Marignier, and Attila Balázs

Sediment thickness is a key parameter in seismological studies, influencing seismic wave propagation, ground-motion amplification, and the interpretation of crustal and upper-mantle structure. Thick sedimentary cover, characterized by low seismic velocities, can strongly bias tomographic inversions if not properly accounted for. While receiver-function–based approaches have proven effective for estimating sediment thickness in Australia and North America, their systematic application across Europe has remained limited.

Here we test and refine a P-to-S receiver function (PRF)–based method for estimating sediment thickness in Central and Eastern Europe, focusing on major sedimentary basins including the Pannonian Basin, where sediment thickness locally exceeds 8 km. Additional analyses are carried out in the Vienna and Transylvanian basins to capture a wider range of geological settings. This method is controlled and compared to data derived from reflection seismic profiles and deep borehole data from the basins.

Using teleseismic PRFs, we measure the delay time of the P-to-S converted phase at the sediment–basement interface and relate it to sediment thickness through empirical fitting. The fitting accounts for multiple controlling parameters, including PRF delay time, basin-specific seismic velocity characteristics, and regional geological context. The study region represents an exceptional natural laboratory, as dense temporary and permanent seismic networks (e.g., AlpArray, PACASE, and AdriaArray) have been operating for nearly a decade, providing unprecedented data coverage.

Our results demonstrate that PRF-derived delay times reliably capture first-order variations in sediment thickness across structurally complex European basins. Our long-term goal is to extend this approach to the entire European continent, enabling a consistent, low-cost framework for mapping sediment thickness across diverse tectonic environments.

How to cite: Kalmár, D., Fodor, G., Marignier, A., and Balázs, A.: Sediment Thickness of European Basins Inferred from P-to-S Receiver Functions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3855, 2026.

Hydrothermal eruptions are a type of volcanic explosion that are less well known but not less important. They constitute a group of eruptions where no magma is expelled at the surface, and are characterized by the ejection of liquids and gasses, and possible fragments of host rock. Compared to the better-known, magmatic eruption, classic pre-eruptive signals like increased seismicity and ground deformation are not clearly present, making hydrothermal eruptions very unpredictable and hence extremely destructive. Some pre-eruptive signals have been defined, but they are very case-specific, and they can be inconsistent between eruptions. Hence, we want to explore the feasibility of geo-electrics as an additional tool to understand the dynamics of hydrothermal eruptions and better predict them in the future. Specifically, we explore the potential of Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) because of its sensitivity to temperature and saturation, the main parameters we expect to change prior to an eruption. Since volcanic processes can span over long time periods, we consider geysers as a natural laboratory to study hydrothermal eruptions. In this context, a geyser is essentially a mini-volcano that goes through a repeated cycle of boiling, gas accumulation, and over-pressurisation culminating in an eruption. Monitoring this with ERT contains some significant challenges compared to the slow-changing volcanic systems; the eruption cycle can be as short as a few minutes (e.g. Strokkur, Iceland), can take up to an hour (El Tatio Geysers, Chile), or even multiple hours to a few days (Yellowstone Geysers, USA).

Here we present data from two geyser monitoring campaigns: Strokkur, Iceland, and El Tatio, Chile, constituting a wide range of eruption dynamics. The main goal of our study is to capture the changes in temperature and saturation using ERT. From a monitoring perspective, each phase of the eruptive cycle needs to be imaged sufficiently to capture the system dynamics. Since a single ERT measurement can be time intensive, measurement protocols had to be designed that weigh time and resolution in an appropriate way tailored to the specific field conditions. We performed characterisation and monitoring using different configurations, including a traditional linear array and novel (concentric) circular arrays. The reservoir geometry can be well constrained due to a high contrast in temperature and salinity of the geothermal fluids and the surrounding host rock. Changes in the monitoring data are hypothesised to be related to the saturation and thus filling and emptying of the shallow reservoirs. To the author's knowledge, this is the first study using ERT to monitor geyser dynamics with a high temporal resolution. Survey design remains an obstacle due to tough meteorological conditions and quick subsurface dynamics, but the first results show there is great potential for ERT as a geyser, and by extension volcano monitoring tool.

How to cite: Vanhooren, L., Caudron, C., and Hermans, T.: High Resolution Geyser Monitoring using Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) – cases from Chile (El Tatio) and Iceland (Strokkur) , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3948, 2026.

EGU26-3956 | ECS | Orals | SM6.5

Discriminating dipole signals from geologically noisy electromagnetic induction data with convolutional neural networks 

Wouter Deleersnyder, Jorge Lopez-Alvis, Laurens Beran, and Lindsey Heagy

Historical unexploded ordnance (UXO) contamination is a widespread environmental challenge, leading to human casualties and chemical contamination. Electromagnetic induction (EMI) methods are commonly used to detect unexploded ordnance in both terrestrial and marine settings. Using traditional advanced geophysical classification, UXOs can be discriminated from other metallic clutter via a physics-based inversion approach that matches obtained polarizability curves from EMI data with a library of common UXO polarizabilities. This workflow requires identifying dipoles in the acquired dataset. Non-dipolar anomalies can complicate the identification of targets of interest. Some geological conditions, for example, in areas with strong magnetic soil responses and areas with metallic clutter, make it hard to discriminate between dipolar and non-dipolar anomalies.

In this work, we build on our previously developed convolutional neural network (CNN) that classifies UXO directly from EMI data [1]. Our CNN outputs a probability map that preserves the spatial dimensions of the input. We train the CNN using synthetic data generated with a dipole forward model that considers relevant UXO and clutter objects, and train it to discriminate those dipoles in field data. A key novelty is the interplay between (1) training the CNN to handle the expected noise levels in the field and (2) transferring the CNN to field sites with potential new or "unseen" types of (geological) noise. We demonstrate test procedures required to build trust in machine learning approaches for UXO classification, where false negatives can have a significant impact.

[1] Heagy, L., Lopez-Alvis, J., Oldenburg, D., Song, L.-P., and Billings, S.: Using convolutional neural networks to classify unexploded ordnance from multicomponent electromagnetic induction data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13722, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13722, 2025.

How to cite: Deleersnyder, W., Lopez-Alvis, J., Beran, L., and Heagy, L.: Discriminating dipole signals from geologically noisy electromagnetic induction data with convolutional neural networks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3956, 2026.

EGU26-4143 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.5

The seismogenic mechanism of the Luding MS6.8 earthquake revealed from preseismic S-wave velocity structure and b-value distribution of the epicenter area 

Qian Hua, Shunping Pei, Xiaotian Xue, Lei Li, Jiawei Li, and Hanlin Liu

    On 5 September 2022, an Ms6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding County, Garze Prefecture, Sichuan Province, which broke a "quiet period" of large earthquakes in the southeast section of the Xianshuihe fault and caused a major natural disaster. The seismogenic structure, seismicity and stress state in the epicenter area of the Luding earthquake plays an important role in understanding the seismogenic mechanism of strong earthquake. In this paper, based on the seismic waveform recorded from 50 short-period seismic stations deployed in the Luding area before the earthquake and the seismic travel time data collected from the regional seismic networks, we investigated high-resolution S-wave velocity structure, spatial earthquake distribution and b-value variation images of shallow crust in the Luding area before the earthquake by ambient noise tomography, double-difference relocation and improved b-value imaging method, respectively. The results show that the mainshock rupture of the Luding earthquake initiated from an asperity with high-velocity anomaly and high stress characteristics in the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault. On the west side of the mainshock, we revealed a hidden normal fault resulted from the largest M5.0 aftershock, which is concomitant branch fault within Xianshuihe Fault system. The mainshock ruptured  both a dominant asperity  and another smaller southeastern asperity with high-velocity, and caused clustered aftershocks there. These results indicate that the high-velocity "rivet" structures cross fault and high stress accumulation before the earthquake in the source area controlled the occurrences of the Luding mainshock as well as strong aftershocks in general. Identifying these special "rivet" structures through high-resolution structure imaging as well as high stress situation through b-value imaging can effectively evaluate the seismogenic capacity of faults, which is of great significance to seismic hazard assessment in key areas. 

How to cite: Hua, Q., Pei, S., Xue, X., Li, L., Li, J., and Liu, H.: The seismogenic mechanism of the Luding MS6.8 earthquake revealed from preseismic S-wave velocity structure and b-value distribution of the epicenter area, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4143, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4143, 2026.

Dispersion imaging is a key step in Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) for estimating the shear-wave velocity structure of the subsurface. High-resolution linear Radon transform (HRLRT) was introduced to improve spectral resolution; however, it is known to suffer from model-incompatibility and near-field effects. In this study, we show that even in the absence of near-field effects, the inner and outer iterative structure of HRLRT systematically modifies the low-frequency portion of the dispersion image. While high-frequency spectral energy in the wavenumber domain is improved, the low-frequency energy is distorted, leading to a shift in the extracted dispersion curves when compared with beamforming and other wavefield-transformation methods. This behaviour can introduce bias in phase-velocity picking and subsequently in shear-wave velocity inversion, particularly for deep layers controlled by low-frequency data. Our results highlight a trade-off between resolution and physical fidelity when using HRLRT for MASW dispersion analysis.

How to cite: Adari, S. and Naskar, T.: When High Resolution Goes Wrong: Low-Frequency Distortion in Linear Radon-Based Dispersion Imaging, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4390, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4390, 2026.

EGU26-4723 | Posters on site | SM6.5

Ambient Noise Full Waveform Inversion with Physics-Informed Generative Adversarial Networks 

Yulong Ma, Jianghai Xia, Feng Cheng, and Jianbo Guan

Extreme climate events and increasing geohazard risks require high-resolution near-surface seismic imaging to better characterize subsurface structures. Ambient seismic noise provides a cost-effective alternative to active-source surveys and has been widely used for S-wave velocity imaging through dispersion-based ambient-noise tomography. However, these approaches rely on accurate Green’s function retrieval, which assumes isotropic and uncorrelated noise sources—conditions rarely satisfied in real field environments. As a result, waveform distortions and resolution loss are common, limiting the quantitative interpretability of conventional ambient-noise imaging.

Ambient-noise full waveform inversion (FWI) offers a promising pathway to overcome these limitations by directly fitting cross-correlation waveforms and fully exploiting waveform information. Nevertheless, its application remains challenging due to strong trade-offs between subsurface structure and unknown noise source characteristics, severe nonlinearity and cycle-skipping, and the lack of reliable constraints on noise source distributions. These issues have so far hindered the practical implementation of ambient-noise FWI in complex near-surface settings.

To address these challenges, we develop a physics-informed generative adversarial network (PIGAN) framework for ambient-noise waveform inversion to accurately estimate physically consistent velocity models in a distributional sense. The wave-equation-based cross-correlation operator is embedded into the generator to ensure physical consistency, while a neural-network discriminator evaluates the mismatch between observed and simulated data. A one-dimensional Wasserstein distance is adopted to enhance robustness to noise and phase uncertainties. The proposed method organically integrates wave-equation constraints, deep learning, optimal transport metrics, and a minimax game formulation, combining the strengths of physics-informed modeling and data-driven representation. This framework enables joint inversion for subsurface velocity structure and ambient noise source characteristics, effectively mitigating source–structure trade-offs. Moreover, it does not require labeled datasets or network pretraining; therefore, the framework is flexible and enables inversion with minimal user interaction. Synthetic tests and field applications in the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor demonstrate improved resolution and deeper illumination, providing new constraints on fault zone structures and implications for geohazard assessment.

How to cite: Ma, Y., Xia, J., Cheng, F., and Guan, J.: Ambient Noise Full Waveform Inversion with Physics-Informed Generative Adversarial Networks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4723, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4723, 2026.

EGU26-4767 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.5

Multi-frequency P-wave polarization angle inversion for shallow crustal structure 

Kyungmin Kim and Sung-Joon Chang

P-wave polarization analysis provides valuable constraints on near-surface S-wave velocity by measuring the polarization angles of P-wave arrivals at seismic stations. However, the depth sensitivity of this method has not been well quantified, limiting its broader application to velocity structure estimation. In this study, we investigate the depth sensitivity of P-wave polarization angles across multiple frequency bands using numerical approaches based on the reflectivity method. Using the resulting frequency-dependent sensitivity kernels, we perform multi-frequency inversion of P-wave polarization angle measurements to estimate the shallow crustal S-wave velocity structure from the near-surface to the mid-crust. We apply this method to three-component seismic data recorded at hundreds of stations across the southern Korean Peninsula. The resulting velocity structures from 1 to 20 km depth show good agreement with receiver function results, while shallow structures within the upper 1 km are consistent with local site survey measurements. These results demonstrate that multi-frequency P-wave polarization angle inversion provides a complementary constraint on near-surface to mid-crustal S-wave velocity structure and can enhance the characterization of near-surface seismic properties.

How to cite: Kim, K. and Chang, S.-J.: Multi-frequency P-wave polarization angle inversion for shallow crustal structure, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4767, 2026.

Active seismic methods are widely used in near-surface geophysics for subsurface characterization, but existing processing softwares often present significant limitations. Proprietary packages are expensive, lack transparency in their processing algorithms, and often include extensive features unnecessary for near-surface applications, while open-source alternatives frequently suffer from limited file format support, slow performance when handling large datasets, complex installation procedures, and dependence on specific configuration files. We present PyCKSTER, an open-source PyQt5-based graphical user interface designed to address these challenges by providing an efficient and user-friendly solution for active seismic data workflows.

PyCKSTER uses ObsPy (Beyreuther et al., 2010; https://www.obspy.org) to handle standard seismic file formats (SEG2, SEGY, Seismic Unix), and relies on pyqtgraph (https://www.pyqtgraph.org) for optimized visualization. The software provides comprehensive data editing capabilities including batch header modification (source and trace coordinates,, delay, topography integration), trace manipulation (move, swap, mute, delete), and interactive quality control. Intuitive mouse-driven picking tools with multiple visualization options (source/geophone diagrams, hodochrones) facilitate traveltime analysis. Picked traveltimes are saved in pyGIMLi's unified format (Rücker et al., 2017; https://www.pygimli.org), enabling direct velocity model reconstruction through the integrated pyGIMLi inversion module or advanced processing using pyGIMLi's extended capabilities.

PyCKSTER also includes a surface wave processing module, addressing a common gap in near-surface seismology where body wave and surface wave analyses are typically performed separately due to limited tool availability and specialized expertise requirements. While both wave types are recorded in the same dataset, their joint processing enables comprehensive characterization through combined Vp and Vs analysis, ultimately allowing investigation of Vp/Vs and Poisson's ratio for improved lithological and hydrogeological interpretation. The software computes dispersion images using phase-shift transform developed in PAC (Cunha Teixeira et al., 2025) and offers interactive picking capabilities with windowing options. The tool also supports importing dispersion curves from the MATLAB package SWIP (Pasquet & Bodet, 2017; https://github.com/spasquet/SWIP), facilitating integration with existing workflows. Advanced dispersion windowing, stacking, and inversion capabilities are currently under development.

PyCKSTER is distributed under the GPLv3 license and available via PyPI, requiring no configuration files for standard use. We demonstrate the software's capabilities through field data examples and discuss ongoing developments.

Beyreuther, M., Barsch, R., Krischer, L., Megies, T., Behr, Y., Wassermann, J., 2010. ObsPy: A Python Toolbox for Seismology. Seismological Research Letters 81, 530–533. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.81.3.530

Cunha Teixeira, J., Burzawa, A., Bodet, L., Hallier, A., Decker, B., Lin, F., Dangeard, M., Boisson Gaboriau, J., Dhemaied, A., 2025. Passive and Active Computation of MASW (PAC). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17639980

Pasquet, S., Bodet, L., 2017. SWIP: An integrated workflow for surface-wave dispersion inversion and profiling. GEOPHYSICS 82, WB47–WB61. https://doi.org/10.1190/geo2016-0625.1

Rücker, C., Günther, T., Wagner, F.M., 2017. pyGIMLi: An open-source library for modelling and inversion in geophysics. Computers & Geosciences 109, 106–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2017.07.011

How to cite: Pasquet, S.: PyCKSTER: An open-source Python tool for interactive processing and analysis of active near-surface seismic data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5021, 2026.

EGU26-5634 | ECS | Orals | SM6.5

Large scale assessment of railway site conditions using broaDband resonance frequencies from DAS data 

Joseph Grand, Eleonore Stutzmann, and Luis-Fabian Bonilla

Modern French railway network is equipped with optical fibers dedicated to telecommunication purposes, among which some remain unused. These so-called dark fibers can be exploited using Distributed Acoustic Sensing technology (DAS) to provide an effective tool for rapid assessment and long-term monitoring of site conditions along railways tracks. We present a methodology applied to a 20 km long DAS array operating under normal railway traffic conditions, highlighting the capability to perform continuous spatial analysis at kilometer scale with measurements every 5 meters. Despite the limited coupling associated with the on-conduit installation, corresponding to the standard operational conditions without any modification to the existing infrastructure, time windows selected before and after train passages allow the extraction of the resonance frequencies at each DAS channel, overcoming the low signal to noise ratio of the installation setup. Variations of resonances frequencies along the railway reflect changes in near surface soil conditions, related either to shear wave velocity or to variation in impedance contrast depth, with rapid spatial variation observed in karstic areas over only a few tens of meters. The novelty of this work lies in the use of resonances frequencies as a stable and repeatable site parameter derived from DAS data on a large scale. While this information does not quantify site amplification, they provide direct information on the frequency ranges that may be preferentially amplified. This makes them well suited for long term monitoring and for tracking temporal or spatial changes in site conditions under linear infrastructures, and for supporting future strategies to manage infrastructure evolution and time dependent variability.

How to cite: Grand, J., Stutzmann, E., and Bonilla, L.-F.: Large scale assessment of railway site conditions using broaDband resonance frequencies from DAS data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5634, 2026.

The shallow subsurface media in urban areas are closely related to human life. Near-surface media generally exhibit characteristics such as lower seismic wave velocity, lower density, stronger absorption of seismic wave energy, and significant heterogeneity both laterally and vertically. When seismic waves propagate upward from the deeper high-impedance bedrock to the low-impedance loose overburden near the surface, influenced by energy conservation and strong impedance contrasts, significant ground motion amplification occurs, characterized by increased amplitude and prolonged vibration duration. This site effect can trigger resonance phenomena, exacerbate the destructive power of strong earthquakes, and lead to severe disasters. Therefore, acquiring high-resolution shallow shear-wave velocity structures through advanced imaging techniques is crucial for site response evaluation and seismic hazard risk prevention and control. As an ultra-dense seismic observation method, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) technology offers a sensor spacing of 1–10 meters, enabling higher-resolution imaging of near-surface structures at a lower cost. The Wenyu River area in Beijing features complex geological structures, including potential geological hazards such as ground fissures and land subsidence, which significantly impact urban planning and underground space construction in Beijing. This study utilizes data collected from a DAS system deployed in the Wenyu River area to conduct near-surface imaging research, obtaining a high-resolution two-dimensional shear-wave velocity structure within a depth of 80 meters. The results reveal significant vertical stratification in shear-wave velocity from 0 to 80 meters depth: a low-velocity zone with Vs < 150 m/s at 0–10 meters depth, likely caused by backfill during fiber optic installation; a gradual increase in shear-wave velocity from 150 m/s to 300 m/s at 10–40 meters depth; and increased medium stiffness at 40–80 meters depth, with shear-wave velocities reaching approximately 450 m/s, reflecting a lithological transition from loose fill and silty clay to dense sand-gravel layers. Local low-velocity anomalies observed in channels CH036 and CH131 are likely attributed to the cavity effect of underground drainage channels and reduced soil shear modulus due to water infiltration from an artificial lake, as confirmed by field investigations.

How to cite: Yu, X., Yang, J., and Zhang, W.: Ambient noise shallow structure imaging with distributed acoustic sensing: A case study in Wenyu River area, Beijing, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6349, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6349, 2026.

The uranium mineralization has been reported at multiple locations within the South Purulia Shear Zone (SPSZ), as well as in its north-eastern extension near Bari village, located approximately 19 km from the central SPSZ. To delineate the structural framework, depth extent, and potential uranium-bearing zones in this region, a comprehensive resistivity and induced polarization (IP) survey was conducted at different location in the vicinity of Bari region. The study involved 2D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) with multi-electrode Schlumberger and dipole–dipole arrays, induced polarization (IP) surveying using a multi-electrode Schlumberger array, and gradient resistivity profiling (GRP) along multiple parallel profiles perpendicular to the regional strike. This setup enabled detailed imaging of the subsurface resistivity distribution and identification of chargeable zones. Interpretation of the ERT and IP and GRP data revealed a prominent resistive body located at a depth of approximately 30–35m, extending laterally in the east-west direction. The high-resistivity zone observed in the ERT and GRP sections corresponded spatially with high-chargeability anomalies in the IP data, suggesting the presence of disseminated uranium mineralization zones. The coincident high resistivity and chargeability anomalies are indicative of potential uranium-bearing alteration zones hosted within muscovite quartz schist units. The integrated application of geophysical methods in this study significantly enhances the accuracy of target identification and facilitates the effective delineation of subsurface geological structures dimensions.

How to cite: Bar, H.: Integrated Electrical Resistivity and Induced Polarization Investigation of Uranium Mineralization in the North-Eastern Extension of the South Purulia Shear Zone, India, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7014, 2026.

EGU26-7411 | ECS | Orals | SM6.5

Joint reconstruction of icequake source mechanisms and 3D glacier structure from dense seismic array data 

Arthur Grange, Romain Brossier, and Ludovic Métivier

Glacio-seismology, which investigates the dynamics and processes of the cryosphere using seismic observations and methods, has strongly grown in interest over the past two decades in the context of global warming. To study the Argentière Glacier (French Alps), a dense array of 98 3-component seismic sensors was deployed in spring 2018 for 35 days. This period coincided with a temperature increase, which enhances the glacier’s seismic activity. The recordings bear the imprint of several thousand icequakes associated with ice-fracturing phenomena such as crevassing. We build a catalog of icequakes and their location using Matched Field Processing (MFP), which is a beamforming based approach.

Then, we jointly reconstruct icequake source mechanisms and the 3D glacier structure by exploiting the full waveform of the recorded 3-component data. The reconstruction relies on elastic wave modelling through numerical solution of the 3D elastodynamic equations using the Spectral Element Method (SEM). Accounting for the glacier surface topography is essential in order to correctly model surface waves, which mainly dominate the icequake data. We apply an alternating optimisation strategy that iterates between two sub-problems: estimating source mechanisms and updating glacier model parameters. The estimation of an icequake mechanism is formulated as the solution of a bi-quadratic minimisation problem depending on the moment tensor and the source wavelet. The model-parameter update is based on the application of a classical elastic Full Waveform Inversion (FWI).

This joint inversion strategy is applied to a set of selected icequakes with a high signal-to-noise ratio. We are able to reconstruct average model heterogeneities that align with the orientation of surface crevasses in several areas of the glacier. Some heterogeneities are reconstructed down to 100 m below the surface, enabling us to estimate the depth of crevasse fields surrounding the sensor network. Finally, we note a clear improvement in the reconstruction of the SH-wave in the updated model compared to what is obtained in a homogeneous medium. In the homogeneous approximation, the Rayleigh wave is reconstructed accurately, whereas the SH-wave is less well recovered. This improvement suggests that the SH-wave is strongly impacted by surface heterogeneities, more than the Rayleigh wave, and mainly drives the reconstruction of the structure. The estimated icequake source mechanisms do not appear to change significantly between the homogeneous model and the updated model obtained during the alternating strategy. This suggests a relative decoupling between source parameters and model parameters in the joint reconstruction problem, mediated by the Rayleigh and SH- waves. Such a decoupling is generally not observed in classical seismology, and therefore seems to be rather specific to the glacial context.

How to cite: Grange, A., Brossier, R., and Métivier, L.: Joint reconstruction of icequake source mechanisms and 3D glacier structure from dense seismic array data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7411, 2026.

EGU26-7503 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.5

Geophysical Monitoring of Environmentally Induced Changes in Dams, Embankments, Landslides, and Their Subsurface: Repeated Multi-Method Surveys 

Eslam Roshdy, Mariusz Majdanski, Szymon Oryński, Artur Marciniak, Sebastian Kowalczyk, Radosław Mieszkowski, Tomisław Gołebiowski, Zygmunt Trześniowski, Sebastian Długosz, Bartosz Bednarz, and Paweł Popielski

This presentation summarizes a project focused on the seismic imaging and time-lapse monitoring of dams, embankments, and landslides using seismic and complementary geophysical methods. These structures are particularly sensitive to environmentally induced changes, such as variations in water saturation driven by climate variability and human activity, which can significantly affect their stability and long-term performance.

This study presents the results of repeated geophysical surveys conducted in 2023 and 2024 to investigate seepage and under-seepage processes in critical infrastructure related to the Rybnik water reservoir in southern Poland. To analyse the state of the embankment and dam, we used a combination of seismic, CCR, and ERT methods, supported by observations with a DAS system and an innovative Spectral GPR. Using repeated surveys, we were able to image not only spatial inhomogeneities but also changes in the structure related to different water tables and water saturation in the studied Earth-filled objects. Moreover, between the two surveys, maintenance works were performed to limit excessive seepage in the embankment. This action reduced seepage by 30%, but geophysical data enabled a spatial evaluation of the works and identified areas that require future monitoring.

Besides standard analysis in the form of ERT and seismic tomography, we utilised high-resolution seismic data recorded at a 2 m horizontal spacing for reflection imaging. This allowed us to recognise geological structures below man-made structures and the effects of the old river bed located beneath the construction. An additional 3C geophone was used for the seismic survey, allowing for precise analysis of P and S waves. This resulted in Vp/Vs analysis of the objects. Moreover, the combination of P and S wave reflection images provides insight into detailed structures that cannot be recognised with standard methods.

Finally, we utilised the DAS system to further increase the spatial resolution of the seismic data. A comparison of DAS and horizontal geophone data shows that DAS provides long-term monitoring capabilities, essential for ongoing structural health assessments and geohazard detection. For example, the multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) using DAS data clearly identifies S-wave velocities down to 13 m with an RMS error of 3.26%, compared to an RMS error of 6.2% for geophone data.

In addition, seismic tomography was applied to the Cisiec landslide (Żywiec district, southern Poland), where time-lapse velocity models are used to track hydrologically driven changes in subsurface properties associated with slope instability.

This research was funded by National Science Centre, Poland (NCN) project number 2022/45/B/ST10/00658.

How to cite: Roshdy, E., Majdanski, M., Oryński, S., Marciniak, A., Kowalczyk, S., Mieszkowski, R., Gołebiowski, T., Trześniowski, Z., Długosz, S., Bednarz, B., and Popielski, P.: Geophysical Monitoring of Environmentally Induced Changes in Dams, Embankments, Landslides, and Their Subsurface: Repeated Multi-Method Surveys, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7503, 2026.

EGU26-7561 | ECS | Orals | SM6.5

Probabilistic modelling and mapping with electromagnetic data using pre-computed geological look-up tables as prior information 

Jesper Nørgaard, Thomas Mejer Hansen, Rasmus Bødker Madsen, Ingelise Møller, and Anne-Sophie Høyer and the INTEGRATE working group

Deterministic inversion of electromagnetic (EM) data yields a single best fitting resistivity model of the subsurface, which can be used to interpret the geological subsurface. Such a model fails to capture the uncertainty in both resistivity and geology. This limitation is critical, as multiple, geologically dissimilar subsurface configurations can yield equivalent EM responses, meaning a single model representation can be inaccurate or even misleading. Probabilistic inversion of the EM data provides a principled solution by characterizing the range of subsurface models consistent with data, and thereby explicitly quantifying uncertainty in both the geophysical and geological models.

Here we invert by rejection sampling of pre-computed geophysical and geological 1D prior models. This allows for fast and efficient probabilistic inversion of large-scale EM surveys containing thousands of soundings. An added benefit of using pre-computed geological models is the possibility to encode geological expert knowledge into the models as direct information. In this context expert knowledge can be many things, for example the resistivity-lithology relationship, the chronological sequence of geological units, or the relative occurrence of various lithologies to name a few.

In the presentation, we demonstrate how such a probabilistic inversion workflow can be set up and applied on towed transient EM data from geophysical surveys in varying geological settings. The required inputs are (i) a geophysical dataset consisting of EM soundings, and (ii) an expert-based assessment of the plausible geological subsurface architectures in the survey area. Optionally, geophysical and lithological well logging can be used to further constrain the inversion. We will highlight the tool/software (GeoPrior1D) we have developed to construct prior ensembles with encoded geological knowledge, especially suited for such a workflow. GeoPrior1D is an open-source tool for generating ensembles of one-dimensional geological and geophysical models that explicitly represent prior models for probabilistic inversion problems.

Finally, we present key outcomes of the probabilistic modelling. This includes resistivity models with uncertainty, lithological models with uncertainty (entropy), class probabilities, and various themed maps. The produced models and maps, always accompanied by rigorously quantified uncertainties, enable better and more reliable decision-making across applications such as geohazard risk assessment, resource volume estimates, groundwater modelling, and much more.

How to cite: Nørgaard, J., Hansen, T. M., Madsen, R. B., Møller, I., and Høyer, A.-S. and the INTEGRATE working group: Probabilistic modelling and mapping with electromagnetic data using pre-computed geological look-up tables as prior information, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7561, 2026.

Urbanization-driven demand for high-resolution near-surface imaging and monitoring has promoted the application of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) technology. However, DAS-based surface-wave velocity imaging faces challenges from low signal-to-noise ratios, strong lateral heterogeneity, and scale-dependent surface-wave sensitivity. To address these issues, we propose a multi-scale surface-wave inversion framework tailored for DAS observations, which inverts multi-scale and multi-mode sub-array dispersion curves simultaneously for the two-dimensional (2D) shear-wave velocity model. The method integrates three core technical components: multi-scale overlapping sub-array selection, frequency-Bessel (F-J) transform-based dispersion extraction (enabling reliable capture of both fundamental and higher-mode surface-wave energy), and a Poisson-Voronoi (PV) tessellation inversion strategy for dimensionality reduction. By integrating dispersion information across multiple frequency bands and multiple modes via multi-scale sub-arrays, the framework achieves complementary sensitivity to shallow and deeper subsurface structures. The PV tessellation stabilizes the inversion and avoids artificial lateral velocity variations inherent in conventional 1D inversion approaches. Synthetic tests confirm the method’s ability to reliably recover low- and high-velocity anomalies with improved lateral continuity and depth resolution. Application to urban DAS ambient noise data from Hefei, China, yields a geologically plausible 2D shear-wave velocity model. This study provides a robust methodological foundation for high-resolution near-surface imaging in complex urban environments using DAS technology.

How to cite: Zou, H. and Yao, H.: A Multi-Scale Poisson-Voronoi Inversion Framework with Joint Multi-Mode Surface Wave Dispersion for DAS-Based Near-Surface Imaging, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7597, 2026.

EGU26-7868 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.5

Single-Station Six-Component Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio Method for Subsurface Structure Inversion 

Zhengyu Huang, Ziqi Zhou, Yanjun Chen, and Zhengbin Li

In seismic exploration, subsurface structures are commonly investigated using dense sensor arrays. While effective, array-based observations require a large number of sensors, resulting in complex field deployment. Single-station seismic methods offer an attractive alternative by leveraging constraints among different seismic components at a single site. Nevertheless, existing single-station seismic methods do not fully utilize the complete six-component information provided by seismometers, and the extraction of dispersion curves is affected by instrument response, which limits the accuracy of single-station methods.

 

To overcome these limitations, we propose a single-station six-component Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio method (6-C HVSR). This method considers both translational HVSR and rotational HVSR, enabling it to eliminate curve distortion caused by instrument response. The proposed 6-C HVSR forward model can be directly constructed using existing surface-wave forward modeling frameworks, enabling subsurface structure inversion without introducing additional assumptions. Unlike traditional HVSR methods, the 6-C HVSR applicable to subsurface structure inversion has a clearer physical meaning.

 

By integrating both translational and rotational HVSR, the proposed method fully utilizes all six-component data and improves constraints on subsurface structures under single-station conditions. Moreover, it reduces requirements for measurement instruments and enables further improvements in measurement accuracy. Borehole comparison experiments demonstrate that the method can estimate subsurface structures using single-station observations.

How to cite: Huang, Z., Zhou, Z., Chen, Y., and Li, Z.: Single-Station Six-Component Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio Method for Subsurface Structure Inversion, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7868, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7868, 2026.

EGU26-9161 | ECS | Orals | SM6.5

From 1D Independence to 3D Coherence: Geostatistical Simulation of Probabilistic TEM Inversions 

Signe Nielsen, Rasmus Bødker Madsen, Anders Damsgaard, Thomas Mejer Hansen, Anker Lajer Højberg, Christopher Vincent Henri, Birgitte Hansen, Hyojin Kim, Jesper Nørgaard, and Ingelise Møller

Groundwater modelling relies on three-dimensional (3D) geological models as structural input to predict subsurface processes such as groundwater flow and contaminant transport. However, model uncertainty in the geological domain, originating from sparse data coverage and the inherent non-uniqueness of geophysical inverse problems, propagates into hydrological predictions and affects the model outcome. Accounting for this uncertainty is therefore essential. This requires methods that not only characterize the subsurface but also quantify and propagate uncertainty through the entire modelling workflow.

Probabilistic inversion of transient electromagnetic (TEM) data addresses the non-uniqueness of the inverse problem by yielding posterior samples containing hundreds of plausible one-dimensional (1D) models at each measurement location. This captures the range of subsurface structures consistent with the geophysical data and enables quantitative assessment of subsurface uncertainty. However, a critical challenge emerges: How do we transform these independent 1D posterior models into spatially coherent 3D subsurface realizations that preserve geological continuity? A simple approach would be to use the mode model, showing the most probable values. However, the mode is merely a statistical summary of the posterior, not an actual sample from it, and does not capture the uncertainty in the subsurface structure either. Alternatively, randomly selecting one posterior model at each location would result in geologically implausible 3D realizations due to lacking spatial structure and lateral correlation. Generating multiple internally consistent realizations is essential to capture the full range of plausible subsurface scenarios and quantify uncertainty. Yet, no standard algorithm currently exists to generate 3D realizations that both sample the posterior distribution and ensure geological continuity.

Existing geostatistical simulation methods are not well suited for this task. Gaussian-based approaches (e.g., sequential indicator simulation) cannot fully exploit the non-Gaussian posterior distributions from probabilistic inversion. Multiple-point statistical methods require training images that are difficult to obtain and may conflict with the prior information used in the inversion.

Here, we present a novel geostatistical simulation algorithm that generates spatially coherent 3D subsurface realizations directly from independent 1D posterior models. The algorithm directly combines 1D posterior realizations at data locations with 1D prior realizations elsewhere, using spatial correlation to generate coherent 3D structures without Gaussian assumptions or training images. We demonstrate the method using a TEM dataset, showing that the resulting realizations reproduce realistic spatial geological patterns and variability consistent with the underlying posterior information. The algorithm is computationally efficient, enabling generation of multiple realizations that in combination quantify subsurface uncertainty and provide a direct basis for propagating geological uncertainty into hydrological flow and transport simulations.

How to cite: Nielsen, S., Bødker Madsen, R., Damsgaard, A., Mejer Hansen, T., Lajer Højberg, A., Vincent Henri, C., Hansen, B., Kim, H., Nørgaard, J., and Møller, I.: From 1D Independence to 3D Coherence: Geostatistical Simulation of Probabilistic TEM Inversions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9161, 2026.

The hydrogeological setting of the Belgian coastal area near De Panne is characterized by the presence of an upper saline plume within the subterranean estuary. This salinity distribution can be imaged using Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), where the saline plume manifests as a zone of low electrical resistivity. However, a similar low-resistivity response may also arise from specific geological formations, such as clay layers. Therefore, lithological investigations are required to distinguish between low resistivity caused by saline groundwater and by geological heterogeneity, which strongly influences groundwater distribution.

Cone penetration tests (CPT), a direct-push method, are employed to characterize subsurface soil properties. In addition, CPT-based resistivity measurements (CPT-R) are used to discriminate between low-resistivity zones associated with lithology and those related to groundwater salinity. To improve ERT inversion results, CPT-R data are incorporated in several ways: as geostatistical constraints (using correlation lengths derived from geostatistical analysis), through joint inversion, and/or as reference models. This study therefore investigates how these different inversion setups influence the ERT inversion results, with a particular focus on the associated uncertainty.

An ensemble deterministic ERT inversion approach is adopted to assess the inversion uncertainty. Key inversion parameters are randomly varied across 100 realizations, which are subsequently combined into a single ensemble. In total, 12 ensembles are generated, representing different inversion strategies and each using the same set of randomly sampled parameters. These parameters include the regularization strategy (constant or optimized), the type of constraint (smoothness or geostatistical), the inversion approach (ERT-only or joint inversion), and the reference model (none, homogeneous, or heterogeneous). Heterogeneous reference models are constructed using sequential Gaussian simulations based on CPT-R data.

By comparing multiple inversion strategies and integrating CPT-R data within an ensemble framework, the uncertainty associated with resistivity models is systematically assessed. This study highlights how choices in ERT inversion setup directly influence model uncertainty, particularly when heterogeneity is neglected, leading to a strong underestimation of uncertainty.

How to cite: Vrancken, E., Paepen, M., and Hermans, T.: A deterministic ensemble inversion framework to assess the uncertainty of electrical resistivity tomography combined with cone penetration tests, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9419, 2026.

EGU26-9460 | ECS | Orals | SM6.5

The influence of the Electrodes-Spacing-to-Diameter-Ratio (ES2DR) on ERT measurements: an operational approach 

Agnese Innocenti, Gabriele Patrizi, Lorenzo Ciani, and Veronica Pazzi

Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) is widely used in archaeo-geophysics due to its capability to non-invasively detect buried structures and stratigraphic heterogeneities. However, when ERT is applied to shallow, small-scale archaeological targets requiring high spatial resolution, the finite geometry of electrodes and the reduced inter electrodes distance can introduce systematic errors that may be misinterpreted as cultural features. This study investigates the impact of the electrode spacing to diameter ratio (a/φ) on apparent resistivity measurements, with particular attention to conditions typical of archaeological prospection, where electrode spacing is often limited by site constraints and preservation requirements. Six electrode types with diameters ranging from 4 to 16 mm were tested using dipole–dipole and pole–dipole arrays at four electrode spacings (10, 30, 50, and 100 cm), generating 48 ERT datasets acquired over a mainly homogeneous test area, characterised by the presence of a higher resistive target. The analysis focused on apparent resistivity values to avoid uncertainties introduced by inversion procedures.

Results demonstrate that electrode material does not significantly influence resistivity measurements; instead, geometric factors dominate.  In particular, when a/φ il lower than 25 (φ/a ≥ 4%), corresponding to dense electrode setups frequently used in archaeological ERT, apparent resistivity is strongly affected, particularly at shallow depths and in the presence of resistive anomalies (e.g., conditions typical of buildings, voids, pavements, foundation remains, or anthropogenic stratigraphy). When a/φ is higher than 31.5 (φ/a ≤ 3.2%), electrode diameter has negligible impact, confirming that standard ERT configurations at meter-scale spacing are generally robust. Increased variability and systematic deviations were observed up to approximately three times the electrode spacing, potentially generating artificial resistive highs that could be erroneously interpreted as archaeological features. Intermediate spacing values (30–50 cm) show transitional behaviour, with distortions decreasing progressively with depth.

The study provides an operational framework for archaeo-geophysical practice: (1) electrode diameter becomes critical when small electrode spacing is required; (2) reliable shallow imaging in archaeological contexts demands maintaining sufficiently high a/φ ratios or explicitly modelling electrode geometry; and (3) resistive archaeological targets are most susceptible to artifact generation under inadequate a/φ conditions. These findings support improved survey design, more reliable interpretation of near-surface ERT data, and reduced risk of false positives in cultural heritage investigations.

How to cite: Innocenti, A., Patrizi, G., Ciani, L., and Pazzi, V.: The influence of the Electrodes-Spacing-to-Diameter-Ratio (ES2DR) on ERT measurements: an operational approach, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9460, 2026.

EGU26-10191 | Posters on site | SM6.5

Improved electrical resistivity tomography reveals near-surface structures beneath fumaroles at Tatun Volcano Group, Taiwan 

Hong-Jia Chen, Chien-Chih Chen, Guo-Teng Hong, and Wan-Chung Lu

The Tatun Volcano Group (TVG) in northern Taiwan is a potentially active volcanic system situated in close proximity to the Taipei metropolitan area and critical global infrastructure, including major semiconductor manufacturing facilities. While previous geophysical investigations have successfully delineated the TVG’s hydrothermal and magmatic reservoirs at the kilometer scale, a significant resolution gap remains regarding the near-surface (meters to hundreds of meters) structures that govern fluid migration and fumarolic activity. This study implements an improved Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) approach to characterize the fine-scale subsurface architecture beneath three prominent hydrothermal sites: Dayoukeng, Matsao, and Xiaoyoukeng.

To overcome the limitations of conventional ERT in rugged volcanic terrains, we utilized a Remote Resistivity Monitoring System (R2MS) equipped with a nontraditional hybrid electrode array and dense electrode spacings of less than 10 meters. A robust bootstrapping resampling workflow was developed to process massive datasets (approximately 180,000 points per line), allowing for the generation of median resistivity profiles and the quantification of model uncertainty through the Quartile Coefficient of Variation (QCV). This statistical framework ensures that identified anomalies are data-constrained rather than inversion artifacts.

Our results reveal distinct electrical signatures associated with varying degrees of hydrothermal maturation. Beneath Dayoukeng, we identified a prominent arch-shaped low-resistivity structure (1 to 10 Ohm-m), featuring a vertical active fluid conduit that facilitates the ascent of magmatic gases. In contrast, the Matsao area exhibits more scattered and diffuse low-resistivity anomalies (2 to 10 Ohm-m), suggesting a less advanced or currently less vigorous hydrothermal pathway compared to Dayoukeng. The Xiaoyoukeng profiles demonstrate a stratified resistivity structure, where high-resistivity shallow layers (300 to 2000 Ohm-m) overlie deeper low-resistivity zones (10 to 30 Ohm-m), showing strong correlation with lithological data from Borehole W1.

A critical scientific finding is the recurring "low-over-high" resistivity pattern observed in the vicinity of active vent holes. This signature, characterized by extremely conductive altered zones overlying more competent andesitic bedrock, provides a diagnostic geoelectrical indicator for identifying subsurface gas migration pathways. Furthermore, the study identifies "immature" conduits beneath certain profiles where fluids appear trapped under impermeable rock layers, potentially increasing internal pressure.

In conclusion, this research provides a high-resolution visualization of the TVG’s shallow plumbing system, offering new insights into the spatial heterogeneity of volcanic degassing. The integration of automated R2MS acquisition with statistical uncertainty quantification establishes a reliable framework for long-term volcanic monitoring. These findings are essential for refining risk assessments and enhancing disaster preparedness for future phreatic eruptions in northern Taiwan.

How to cite: Chen, H.-J., Chen, C.-C., Hong, G.-T., and Lu, W.-C.: Improved electrical resistivity tomography reveals near-surface structures beneath fumaroles at Tatun Volcano Group, Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10191, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10191, 2026.

EGU26-11031 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.5

From apparent to real moisture index in masonry through inversion of microwave data: a first attempt 

Mohammadreza Yousefi, Agnese Innocenti, Emanuele Marchetti, Riccardo Fanti, and Veronica Pazzi

Nowadays, the preservation of cultural heritage has become a matter of debate, as numerous factors contribute to its deterioration. In this case, water plays a key role, as it can cause significant damage to construction materials over time. Direct measurements of water content (WC) are not feasible in cultural heritage buildings because they are destructive. Therefore, it is essential to apply methods which are non-destructive and also highly sensitive to the presence of water.

Microwave-based moisture instruments utilize the transmission or reflection microwaves (i.e., electromagnetic waves in the frequency range: 0.3-300 GHz) to evaluate WC within materials. However, a major limitation of WC microwave measurements is that they provide cumulative moisture values that integrate the contribution of all material layers from the surface up to the probe’s penetration depth. As a result, previous studies have only relied on displaying cumulative moisture maps instead of the true ones.

This work addresses this limitation by a simple least squares (LS) inversion approach based on an average weighted function, since no information about the actual weighting function implemented in the device is available. The forward model was assumed that the cumulative measurement at each penetration depth is of a weighted linear combination of moisture contributions from successive layers. Then, the LS solution was computed through the Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse to lead to the real WC at discrete depths without physical sampling.

The method was applied to a real dataset acquired at the Certosa del Galluzzo (Florence, Italy), a 14th-century historical complex affected by moisture deterioration. The instrument used in this study was the Moist 350B sensor, designed by HF sensor GmbH (Leipzig, Germany). The device utilizes the transmission and reflection of electromagnetic waves in the range of microwave (approximately 2.45 GHz) to evaluate the WC within materials by measuring their dielectric permittivity. It is equipped with five interchangeable probes, which are used for detecting WC at different penetration depths: 3 cm, 7 cm, 11 cm, 30 cm, and 80 cm.

First, the interest zones were identified by infrared thermography (IRT). Subsequently, the microwave sensor with all probes was applied to acquire cumulative data in these areas. Finally, synthetic Gaussian noise with a standard deviation of 1.5% (on the basis of the manual) was added to the dataset to simulate realistic measurement uncertainty prior to the inversion.

The inverted data for the superficial layer (at 3 cm) reveal good agreement with the IRT results, whether the area is wet or dry. In addition, the results indicate that when a layer is highly saturated, the layer below will be significantly affected so that its moisture amount is lower compared to the acquired data. In fact, the presentation of raw data, especially in a highly saturated layer, causes the layer below to be considered overestimated compared to the real values. In summary, the proposed approach can effectively reconstruct the real distribution without any physical sampling.

How to cite: Yousefi, M., Innocenti, A., Marchetti, E., Fanti, R., and Pazzi, V.: From apparent to real moisture index in masonry through inversion of microwave data: a first attempt, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11031, 2026.

EGU26-11326 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.5

Vertical seismic profiling using distributed acoustic sensing in Weisweiler, Germany 

Marco Dietl, Claudia Finger, Thomas Reinsch, Stefan Hohage, Oliver Ritzmann, and Thomas Oswald

The Weisweiler region in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, offers promising potential for geothermal energy use. The respective geology in the Carboniferous and Devonian is rather unexplored, so seismological and geological exploration of the region was started recently. To create a shallow seismic velocity profile with high depth resolution that can serve as a basis for further research, we used a fiber optic cable in a 500 m deep exploration well in the center of the area to perform a vertical seismic profiling (VSP) campaign.

A VSP campaign with four dropped weight shot points was carried out in which we recorded the deformation along the cable caused by the seismic waves with a distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) interrogator. With a spatial resolution of approximately 0.8 m along the cable, we were able to resolve a total of 618 depth-averaged measurement points over the 500 m borehole depth. The gauge length was set to 10 m.

Interval velocity profiles were determined by manually detecting wave arrivals. P wave velocities were compared to sonic log velocities. In some depth sections, shear wave arrivals could be identified and shear wave velocity profiles and vP/vS ratios could be derived.

We show the measurement setup and processing steps, as well as the processed data, and present the resulting velocity profiles in comparison to previously available data sets of the region. Here, the measurement methodology also reveals its limitations, as the strain per measurement point in DAS is measured over a depth range of one gauge length, which limits the depth resolution. Nevertheless, the results correspond very well with previously known geological models and also coincide with the sonic log, while supplementing previous findings with a S wave velocity profile and a vP/vS ratio.

How to cite: Dietl, M., Finger, C., Reinsch, T., Hohage, S., Ritzmann, O., and Oswald, T.: Vertical seismic profiling using distributed acoustic sensing in Weisweiler, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11326, 2026.

EGU26-11601 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.5

Source-less marine seismic imaging using vessel noise: a feasibility study in the Port of Trieste, north east Italy 

Alice Affatati, Luca Baradello, Fabio Meneghini, Martina Busetti, and Jonathan Ford

Marine seismic reflection experiments typically use a towed streamer and impulsive acoustic sources (such as airguns, sparkers or boomers) to image sub-seafloor acoustic reflectivity. These sources emit high amplitude, short period signals designed to achieve good resolution and penetration. This causes correspondingly high Peak Sound Levels that can in some cases adversely affect marine fauna and contribute to background ocean noise. In recent years this has led to increasing environmental restrictions on seismic surveying, in addition to the existing operational complexity and cost of using active sources. 

We propose an alternative method, suited for shallow sub-seafloor characterisation, that uses the broadband noise generated by the acquisition vessel as the seismic source – eliminating the need for a dedicated active source. We use multichannel streamer recordings to estimate the vessel-generated acoustic wavefield, and cross-correlate this with the raw continuous recordings to produce virtual common shot gathers that are regularly sampled in space, compatible with conventional seismic imaging workflows. Here we present preliminary results of the SLIPSTREAM project, a pilot study conducted in September 2025 in the Port of Trieste, north east Italy, in shallow water (<20 m) using a multi-channel streamer (24 hydrophones spaced at 1 m). The project aimed to assess the feasibility of the source-less approach for research-scale, high-resolution 2-D seismic acquisition. We do this by assessing the quality of geophysical imaging and quantifying the reduction in impact to specific marine fauna that are common in the area, compared to a conventional active source “Boomer” acquisition. We demonstrate that the source-less data is able to image the boundaries and internal structure of several different shallow geological units, with a maximum penetration of around 40 m below the seafloor.

Future experiments will focus on improving the resolution and depth of investigation by controlling the vessel speed, as well as exploring the application of this method with larger vessels in deeper water. The overall goal is to acquire seismic images with sufficient quality for geological interpretation in locations where active sources may be restricted for environmental reasons.

How to cite: Affatati, A., Baradello, L., Meneghini, F., Busetti, M., and Ford, J.: Source-less marine seismic imaging using vessel noise: a feasibility study in the Port of Trieste, north east Italy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11601, 2026.

The subsurface is complex and heterogeneous, making its investigation very challenging. In this context, geophysical imaging methods can provide new insights on the spatial distribution of Earth physical properties. However, the imaging capacity of geophysical methods is limited by their indirect nature and the non-unicity of the solution of the inverse problem. In other words, the interpretation of geophysical data sets remains limited by their intrinsic uncertainty. On the one hand, deterministic methods fail to properly account for uncertainty. On the other hands, probabilistic approaches allowing uncertainty quantification, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) methods, are both time-consuming and difficult to tune to convergence in complex subsurface systems with many parameters. Some alternatives, such as Bayesian Evidential Learning (BEL), providing an approximation of the posterior distribution have been proposed. BEL learns a statistical relationship between data and model parameters from a training set sampled from the prior distribution. This prevents the use of forward models during the prediction of the posterior distribution. The applications of probabilistic approaches to geophysical imaging often supposes simplifications in the distribution of model parameters to reduce the number of parameters.

In this contribution, we acknowledge that geophysical imaging is often not the objective of geophysical data acquisition. Geologists are often more interested in some specific features such as the depth of the bedrock, the location and geometry of a fault, or the spatial variability of the fresh-saltwater interface. We therefore define the prior distribution of model parameters in a hierarchical way, where the feature of interest is defined first with hyperparameters, explicitly included during posterior inference. This approach allows to decouple the imaging process from any pre-defined inversion grid. We use BEL to calculate the posterior distribution. To deal with the strong non-linearity of the data-model relationship, we use a mixture-density network with two hidden layers allowing to estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters.

We demonstrate the approach on a synthetic electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) example in a saline context. The fresh-saltwater interface is characterized using a third degree polynomial (4 parameters) separating a saltwater aquifer from an overlying freshwater lens, both with uncertain electrical resistivity. 10000 models are sampled from the prior distribution to train the BEL-MDN model between the ERT pseudo-section and the model parameters. PyGimLi is used to solve the ERT forward problem. During MDN training, the first epochs use noise free data; noisy data are only introduced later in the training process, allowing to maximize learning efficiency. Comparison with McMC shows that BEL-MDN is successful in identifying the depth and shape of the interface at a fraction of the cost of McMC. However, BEL-MDN tends to overestimate the uncertainty when the interface lies at shallow depth, which requires further research. The method holds great potential to image specific (hydro-)geological features, especially for complex cases where McMC are too computationally expensive.   

How to cite: Hermans, T. and Mejer Hansen, T.: Fast stochastic inversion of geological interfaces from geophysical data using Bayesian Evidential Learning with Mixture Density Network, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11676, 2026.

EGU26-11780 | Orals | SM6.5

Geophysical imaging of a groundwater-dependent pond system: a combined electrical resistivity and seismic refraction tomography approach in the South-Albera Massif (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain) 

Joana Mencos, Mario Zarroca, Carles Roqué, Maria Casamitjana, Eduard Madaula, Gisela Gonzalvo, and Anna Menció

Ponds are small water bodies that play a crucial role in biodiversity conservation and act as key elements of blue landscape connectivity. Under increasing climate pressures, groundwater-dependent ponds can serve as ecological shelters for wildlife, livestock, and agriculture. Understanding their origin and hydrodynamics is essential for improving their management and protection strategies.

This study focuses on an aquifer–pond system located on the granite pediment of the South Albera Massif (Eastern Pyrenees, NE Spain), where a clustered network of weathering basins has developed, some of them hypogenic in origin. The bedrock of the pond system is formed by the Palaeozoic basement of the Pyrenees Range: metasedimentary schists, orthogneisses, and plutonic granodiorites and tonalites, as well as leucogranite dikes. The structure of the area is dominated by the presence of NW-SE trending shear zones, dipping NE 50° to 70°.

Here, we propose a multidisciplinary approach coupling hydrogeological, geomorphological, edaphological and ecological techniques, together with near-surface geophysics, for the characterisation of the pond system, aiming at advancing knowledge on such groundwater-dependent ecosystems and their resilience under climate change scenario.

We applied Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) to characterize the geo-electrical structure beneath temporary ponds and associated depressions, while Seismic Refraction Tomography (SRT) served to decipher the seismic velocity distribution in the subsurface. Independent and structurally coupled joint inversions were performed and compared to analyse the best data treatment method for detecting bedrock structure and the geometry of the pond sediments. The combination of these techniques has led to the 3D reconstruction of the subsurface pond features integrating surface and subsurface data, providing insights on its geomorphological origin and hydrodynamics. Data interpretation, inversion and geomodelling is based on opensource python-based programs and libraries such Refrapy, pyGIMLI and Gempy.

How to cite: Mencos, J., Zarroca, M., Roqué, C., Casamitjana, M., Madaula, E., Gonzalvo, G., and Menció, A.: Geophysical imaging of a groundwater-dependent pond system: a combined electrical resistivity and seismic refraction tomography approach in the South-Albera Massif (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11780, 2026.

EGU26-12921 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.5

Using sensitivity kernels in realistic borehole conditions for informing ahead-of-the-bit prediction of hard stringers 

Saygin Ileri, Ridvan Orsvuran, Alexey Pavlov, and Sigbjørn Sangesland

Drilling operations can unexpectedly encounter hard stringers-thin, high-strength inclusions/rock layers in a softer background-which cause drilling problems including stick-slip vibrations, near-bit inclination changes, and severe damage to drill-bit and bottomhole assembly (BHA), all leading to inefficient and costly drilling. Early detection of hard stringers allows drilling personnel to adjust parameters proactively, enhancing operational stability. In this study, we propose a methodology referred to as ahead-of-the-bit prediction (ABP) using drill-bit-generated noise as a seismic source and BHA-mounted sensors for cross-correlation analysis of recorded signals. We compute sensitivity kernels in a realistic borehole environment to identify the contributions from direct arrivals, stringer reflections, mud-induced guided waves, and to better understand the physics of the elastic wavefield. The results from this work will enable further development of our methodology for real-time early detection of hard stringers during drilling.

How to cite: Ileri, S., Orsvuran, R., Pavlov, A., and Sangesland, S.: Using sensitivity kernels in realistic borehole conditions for informing ahead-of-the-bit prediction of hard stringers, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12921, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12921, 2026.

EGU26-13360 | ECS | Orals | SM6.5

Investigating Landslide Behaviour Under Varying Environmental Pressure: A Multi‑Method Geophysical Approach 

Artur Marciniak, Szymon Oryński, Sebastian Kowalczyk, Adrian Flores-Orozco, Lukas Aigner, Andrzej Górszczyk, Wojciech Gajek, Sebastian Uhlemann, Justyna Cader-Marciniak, Eslam Roshdy, Emilia Karamuz, Adam Nawrot, and Mariusz Majdański

The long-term stability and reactivation potential of large landslides are primarily controlled by their deep internal structure, the geometry and connectivity of shear planes, fault systems, and subsurface hydraulic pathways. Despite their importance, these features remain difficult to investigate, and geophysical methodologies capable of resolving those at sufficient resolution and depth are still not fully established. This study addresses this challenge through a comprehensive, multi-method geophysical investigation of the Cisiec landslide, located in the Żywiec district of southern Poland.

The study area comprises a forested clearing surrounded by meadow terrain, with the landslide moving predominantly east–northeast and exhibiting an elevation difference of approximately 100 m between its crown and toe. Annual monitoring campaigns, including drone-based photogrammetry and laser scanning, as well as geophysical measurements like seismic or resistivity tomography, conducted between 2018 and 2022, provided valuable insights into the general geometry and kinematics of the landslide. Still, process-understanding of the complex and non-linear landslide behaviour could not be fully obtained. These datasets allowed the construction of a preliminary structural models and indicated temporal variability in displacement patterns; however, the nature of movement along individual slip surfaces remained unresolved. In particular, it was unclear whether deformation occurred as a coherent, uniform displacement or as a progressive, sequential sliding process involving multiple layers or discrete blocks. Furthermore, the role of groundwater circulation within the landslide body and its influence on mechanical stability could not be conclusively determined.

To overcome these limitations, we conducted advanced geophysical surveys during dedicated field campaigns in October 2024 and April 2025. The investigation integrated high-resolution seismic imaging based on Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) with Spectral Ground Penetrating Radar (SGPR) and a suite of electrical and electromagnetic methods, including Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), Frequency Domain Electromagnetics (FDEM), Time Domain Electromagnetic (TDEM) soundings, and Spectral Induced Polarization (SIP). Each technique was carefully selected and optimized to resolve complementary aspects of the landslide architecture, ranging from shallow deformation features to deeper structural controls and subsurface hydraulic pathways.

The combined dataset provided a detailed, multi-scale image of the landslide, revealing significant spatial heterogeneity in both mechanical and hydrogeological properties. Seismic imaging resolved fine-scale structural and geomechanical variations, while electrical and electromagnetic methods highlighted zones of enhanced moisture content and groundwater flow. The results confirm a division of the landslide into three distinct kinematic zones and reveal previously unresolved shallow slip surfaces and groundwater-related effects. Notable observations include focused groundwater discharge at the lower slope and an anomalous signal attenuation zone near the crown, interpreted as evidence of microseismic activity and the development of a potential new failure zone. These findings demonstrate the value of integrated, high-resolution geophysical approaches for improving conceptual models of complex landslide systems and for supporting long-term hazard assessment.

How to cite: Marciniak, A., Oryński, S., Kowalczyk, S., Flores-Orozco, A., Aigner, L., Górszczyk, A., Gajek, W., Uhlemann, S., Cader-Marciniak, J., Roshdy, E., Karamuz, E., Nawrot, A., and Majdański, M.: Investigating Landslide Behaviour Under Varying Environmental Pressure: A Multi‑Method Geophysical Approach, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13360, 2026.

EGU26-13946 | ECS | Orals | SM6.5

Time-Lapse Seismic Monitoring of a Railway Embankment Using Train-Induced Distributed Acoustic Sensing 

Muhammad Saqlain, Andrew Trafford, Shubham Shrivastava, Qasim Khan, and Shane Donohue

Aged railway embankments, constructed in the late 19th and early 20th centuries without modern engineering standards, are increasingly vulnerable to failure due to ageing, climate change, and rising transportation demands. Extreme weather events, particularly periods of prolonged wetting and drying, pose a significant risk to the structural resilience and serviceability of these earthworks. This study explores a novel passive monitoring framework at the Withy Bed site near London, UK, utilising Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) to capture the long-term seismic response of a live railway embankment. By leveraging train-induced vibrations as a continuous ambient seismic source, we provide a non-invasive and high-resolution assessment of the slope's condition. The site is further equipped with a suite of geotechnical sensors, including volumetric water content (VWC) and suction sensors, to provide direct measurement of the embankment's internal state. We present time-lapse results derived from a 350m fibre-optic cable buried within the embankment, with processed data spanning every month of the year. The findings demonstrate a clear correlation between shear wave velocity (Vs) and geotechnical sensor data, specifically, Vs decreases during periods of high water content and low suction, reflecting a reduction in soil stiffness during wet seasons. Conversely, during dry periods, the data indicate a significant increase in Vs as the water content decreases and soil suction increases, resulting in a measurable rise in the overall stiffness of the embankment. The results show clear month-to-month changes in dispersion trends and Vs, with significant percentage decreases in Vs during wetter months and a progressive recovery of stiffness during drier periods. These temporal changes are spatially coherent along the embankment and repeatable across successive train events, demonstrating the robustness of the passive approach. The time-lapse analysis confirms that train-induced seismic waves provide sufficient energy and consistency to resolve seasonal variations in near-surface stiffness without repeated active surveys. This work demonstrates that passive DAS provides a practical, non-intrusive, and scalable solution for continuous monitoring of railway embankments, supporting the early identification of condition changes and enhancing infrastructure asset management.

How to cite: Saqlain, M., Trafford, A., Shrivastava, S., Khan, Q., and Donohue, S.: Time-Lapse Seismic Monitoring of a Railway Embankment Using Train-Induced Distributed Acoustic Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13946, 2026.

EGU26-14747 | Orals | SM6.5

3D magnetic susceptibility imaging using EMI in-phase data: selected 3D inversion examples using small- and large-scale data sets 

Julien Guillemoteau, Philippe De Smedt, Francois-Xavier Simon, Alex Vauthier, Jens Tronicke, and Bertrand Dousteyssier

Rigid boom frequency-domain electromagnetic induction (FD-EMI) sensors based on a double magnetic dipole (loop–loop) geometry allows to rapidly characterize subsurface electrical and magnetic properties. Recent advances in instrumentation (including multi-configuration and multi-channel systems), high-resolution kinematic acquisition strategies, and fast 3D inversion algorithms allows the reconstruction of 3D subsurface models of electrical and magnetic properties with unprecedented detail.

In this study, we evaluate the potential of FD-EMI in-phase data for high-resolution 3D reconstruction of magnetic susceptibility (or permeability) using the recently developed 3D multi-channel deconvolution (MCD) approach. We tested the 3D MCD method on multiple data sets acquired in diverse igneous environments and with different FD-EMI systems in the context of archaeological prospection. Compared to conventional qualitative interpretation of FD-EMI in-phase data maps, the 3D MCD method significantly enhances the interpretability of the data by (1) enabling clear separation of subsurface features at different depth levels, (2) significantly improving lateral resolution and (3) revealing archaeological structures that remain invisible in the original measurements. These results highlight MCD as a key processing step that unlocks the full imaging potential of FD-EMI in-phase data.

How to cite: Guillemoteau, J., De Smedt, P., Simon, F.-X., Vauthier, A., Tronicke, J., and Dousteyssier, B.: 3D magnetic susceptibility imaging using EMI in-phase data: selected 3D inversion examples using small- and large-scale data sets, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14747, 2026.

EGU26-15649 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.5

Constraining Basal Conditions of the Greenland Ice Sheet Using Rayleigh-Wave Ellipticity From Ambient Seismic Noise Records 

Ci-Ru Cai, Wei-An Chao, Florent Gimbert, and Nicolas Paris

The physical conditions at the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) fundamentally dictate ice dynamics and its response to climate change. However, due to the limited spatial coverage of ice-penetrating radar surveys and borehole drilling observations, as well as the heavy reliance of thermo-mechanical ice-flow models on prescribed parameters, the shallow internal structure of the ice sheet and its basal environment remain insufficiently. Seismology provides an opportunity to constrain the depth of the ice–bedrock interface through the characterization of subsurface shear-wave velocity (Vs) structures.The study area is located northeast of Kangerlussuaq in Southwest Greenland. Previous studies show that long-term seismic velocity variations in this region are minimal, limiting the ability to infer basal frozen or thawed conditions from temporal changes alone. In addition, most investigations of the basal thermal state of the GrIS have focused on central and northern Greenland, leaving Southwest Greenland relatively under-explored. Although three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-flow models consistently predict thawed basal conditions here, these results rely primarily on numerical simulations and indirect constraints, highlighting the need for independent seismological validation.To address this, we analyze continuous ambient seismic noise recorded by 80 temporary seismic stations deployed across the study area. We apply the degree of polarization–ellipticity (DOP-E) method to measure Rayleigh-wave ellipticity and invert for shallow Vs structures within the priori knowledge of ice properties by using the neighborhood algorithm.This study provides seismological constraints on the internal and basal conditions of the GrIS in Southwest Greenland that complement existing radar observations and thermodynamic models, thereby establishing a new observational framework for investigating basal material properties and ice-dynamic processes in this region.

How to cite: Cai, C.-R., Chao, W.-A., Gimbert, F., and Paris, N.: Constraining Basal Conditions of the Greenland Ice Sheet Using Rayleigh-Wave Ellipticity From Ambient Seismic Noise Records, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15649, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15649, 2026.

Long-term monitoring of slopes is of significance for engineering geology research and geo-disaster prevention. There is a growing need to develop fast, nondestructive and affordable techniques that can detect gradual and cyclic changes inside slopes. For this purpose, we propose a fast and low-cost computational framework based on processing the single-point ambient seismic noise recordings by the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method. To test the efficiency of the proposed framework, we conduct a demonstration study in a road-cut slope in colluvium deposits in Southwest China. First, we carry out short-term ambient seismic noise surveys on the slope, delineate the shear wave velocity (Vs) structure of the slope, verify and establish this structure as the reference Vs model for the slope. Then we conduct the long-term monitoring of the ambient seismic noise on two profiles of the slope, calculate the HVSR curves and observe the time-dependent variations of the predominant peaks that reflect temporal changes of subsurface interfaces. Finally, we perform the Vs inversion to investigate changes in the Vs structure with rainfall. Through the monitoring, we identify the rainfall-induced slope failure and discover that both predominant frequency and shallow subsurface Vs of slope are negatively correlated with rainfall. The HVSR calculation, the predominant peak identification and the Vs inversion can all be implemented in minutes, which is much faster than the array-based surface wave method. The theoretical analysis and the demonstration application show that the framework we proposed in this study has great potential for monitoring changes in performance of slopes.

How to cite: Guo, Z.: Monitoring performance of slopes via ambient seismic noise recordings, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15710, 2026.

EGU26-16643 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.5

Multi-Scale Hydrogeophysical Integration: From Lab Calibration to Field Mapping of Unsaturated Soil Moisture in Peri-urban Slope Instabilities 

Luigi Martino, Giuseppe Calamita, Teodosio Lacava, Antonio Satriani, Sebastian Uhlemann, Filomena Canora, and Angela Perrone

The increasing frequency of extreme climatic events, from protracted droughts to high-intensity precipitation, necessitates robust frameworks for monitoring soil hydrological dynamics and associated geological risks. Hydrogeophysical methods, particularly when integrated with multi-sensory environmental arrays, offer a powerful means of capturing the spatiotemporal evolution of pore pressure, a key driver of slope instability. This study presents a multi-parametric, multi-scale monitoring strategy deployed at an open-air laboratory situated on a slow-moving peri-urban landslide in the southern Apennines (Basilicata, Italy) developed as part of the ITINERIS project (PNRR M4C2 Inv.3.1 IR EU’s Next Generation program).

We combine time-lapse Electrical Resistivity Tomography (tl-ERT) with a diverse hydrological sensor suite, including tensiometers, piezometers, soil temperature probes, and a non-invasive Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensing (CRNS) station for area-wide moisture estimation. To address the complexities of hydrogeological scaling, e.g., the dynamic nature of soil moisture patterns and their scale-dependent manifestations, we developed a customized laboratory framework designed to replicate field-scale coupled ERT and hydrological measurements. This dual-scale approach enables the derivation of site-specific petrophysical relations and facilitates the calibration of 2D/3D dynamic thermo-hydro-geophysical model.

This work focuses on the development of a robust data mining and processing workflow designed to harmonize heterogeneous geophysical, hydrological, and meteorological datasets. In this study, we present the validation of laboratory protocols alongside the preliminary setup of multi-scale field monitoring and field acquisition systems. By proposing inversion strategies and automated quality control, we aim to minimize interpretative ambiguity and move towards a more geologically consistent representation of vadose zone mechanisms. This integrated approach is establishing a preliminary foundation for future predictive modelling while offering a scalable solution for monitoring hydrogeological hazards in complex environments.

How to cite: Martino, L., Calamita, G., Lacava, T., Satriani, A., Uhlemann, S., Canora, F., and Perrone, A.: Multi-Scale Hydrogeophysical Integration: From Lab Calibration to Field Mapping of Unsaturated Soil Moisture in Peri-urban Slope Instabilities, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16643, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16643, 2026.

EGU26-16733 | Posters on site | SM6.5

Imaging Subsurface Cavities in Carbonate Rocks Using Electrical Resistivity Tomography 

Awais Akbar and Asif Ali

Urban development in central Saudi Arabia frequently encounters subsurface hazards associated with karstification, weathering, and fracturing of carbonate rocks. These features pose significant geotechnical risks for high-rise structures if not properly identified at the early design stage. This study presents the results of a high-resolution Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) survey conducted at the proposed King Fahad Tower site in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, aimed at detecting subsurface cavities and weak zones within shallow limestone formations.

The site is located on the Arabian Shelf and is underlain predominantly by sedimentary formations comprising limestone, dolomite, marl, and evaporites of Jurassic to Cenozoic age. A total of 25 ERT profiles were acquired using a multi-channel resistivity imaging system with a dipole-dipole electrode configuration. The survey achieved an investigation depth of approximately 10 m below ground level, providing detailed two-dimensional resistivity images of the shallow subsurface. Inverted resistivity models reveal a wide range of resistivity values, from as low as 2 Ω·m to greater than 600 Ω·m, reflecting strong subsurface heterogeneity. Very low resistivity anomalies (<20 Ω·m) are interpreted as zones of saturated cavities, clay-filled voids, or highly weathered and fractured limestone. Moderate resistivity values (20-150 Ω·m) likely correspond to weathered or partially saturated strata, while higher resistivity zones (>150 Ω·m) are associated with competent limestone bedrock. Several low-resistivity anomalies exhibit vertical continuity and lateral persistence, suggesting potential pathways for infiltration and zones susceptible to collapse.

Based on the integrated interpretation, a subsurface risk map was developed to delineate high-risk zones requiring verification and mitigation. The results demonstrate that ERT is an effective non-invasive tool for mapping shallow karst-related features in carbonate terrains and for optimizing intrusive investigations and ground improvement measures. This study highlights the importance of incorporating geophysical imaging into urban geotechnical site investigations to reduce construction risk and support safe foundation design in karst-prone regions.

How to cite: Akbar, A. and Ali, A.: Imaging Subsurface Cavities in Carbonate Rocks Using Electrical Resistivity Tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16733, 2026.

EGU26-16753 | ECS | Orals | SM6.5

A Novel Structural Geostatistical Constrained ERT Approach for Hydrogeophysical Characterization in Glacial Sedimentary settings 

Niloofar Alaei, Thomas Günther, Thomas Eckardt, Björn Stiller, Konstantin Scheihing, Renate Pechnig, and Gerald Gabriel

Effective groundwater exploration is fundamental to the identification and assessment of subsurface water resources, particularly in challenging geological conditions. In such cases, conventional drilling-based approaches are costly and provide only limited one-dimensional information for characterizing the three-dimensional subsurface. Hydrogeophysical techniques offer efficient, non-invasive means of imaging the subsurface and can significantly reduce the need for extensive drilling campaigns. Among these, Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) is one of the most widely used geophysical methods for investigating groundwater systems. However, conventional smoothness-constrained ERT inversion often fails to resolve sharp stratigraphic boundaries or represent internal heterogeneity, limiting its effectiveness in complex geological settings. Structural and geostatistical constraints have each been proposed as enhancements, but when applied separately, they often struggle to simultaneously achieve structural accuracy and inversion stability.

We introduce a novel inversion strategy that integrates seismic-derived structural horizons with unit-specific geostatistical constraints within the open-source PyGIMLi framework. This approach balances structural alignment and internal heterogeneity by enforcing sharp boundaries and applying region-specific spatial continuity models.

This hybrid strategy is evaluated at two glacially influenced groundwater study sites in northern Germany, where complex Quaternary deposits include interbedded sands, tills, and clays. Results demonstrate enhanced delineation of aquifers and aquitards, improved agreement with borehole resistivity logs, and a reduction in inversion artifacts such as over-smoothing or artificial layering. Compared to conventional and single-constraint inversions, the integrated method more effectively resolves thin confining units, anthropogenic disturbances, and laterally variable aquifer geometries with enhanced structural clarity.

This framework offers a transferable solution for hydrogeophysical characterization in heterogeneous environments, particularly where seismic or borehole data are available to guide inversion.

How to cite: Alaei, N., Günther, T., Eckardt, T., Stiller, B., Scheihing, K., Pechnig, R., and Gabriel, G.: A Novel Structural Geostatistical Constrained ERT Approach for Hydrogeophysical Characterization in Glacial Sedimentary settings, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16753, 2026.

EGU26-17678 | ECS | Orals | SM6.5

Imaging small-scale, fast subsurface flow processes: field examples and practical guidelines for GPR monitoring 

Sophie Stephan, Conrad Jackisch, Niklas Allroggen, and Jens Tronicke

Among the different near-surface geophysical methods, ground-penetrating radar (GPR) is particularly promising for investigating small-scale (centimeters to meters) and fast (seconds to minutes) subsurface flow processes. Technical developments in GPR systems and data acquisition, such as real-time signal digitization, real-time positioning techniques, and multichannel GPR systems, enable repeated 2D or 3D GPR measurements (2D/3D GPR monitoring) in various environments with a temporal resolution on orders of minutes and a spatial resolution of centimeters to decimeters. Another advantage of GPR is the ability to link temporal changes in the GPR signal to variations in soil water content, because the propagation velocity of the GPR signal depends on the dielectric permittivity and, thus, water content.

However, GPR monitoring experiments must be carefully designed to collect high-quality datasets. The experimental setup must provide accurate positioning, consistent high spatial and temporal sampling, and minimal variations in GPR antenna coupling. Furthermore, following a special data processing and data quality analyses schedule is important to obtain reliable interpretation results. Such a data analysis must focus on identifying, evaluating, and suppressing amplitude fluctuations and time shifts in the recorded GPR data that are unrelated to changes in the subsurface (time-lapse noise).

To provide a GPR monitoring strategy that incorporates all the aforementioned points, we present two field examples of GPR monitoring in combination with irrigation experiments to image subsurface flow processes: a 2D hill-slope scale experiment and 3D plot-scale experiment. These examples demonstrate our general measurement setup and schedule for repeatable GPR data collection and data analysis, as well as a first-order, attribute-based data interpretation. We also highlight important practical points to consider for performing and analyzing such GPR monitoring experiments.

Our field examples demonstrate the great potential of GPR monitoring to image and investigate subsurface flow processes. We also provide a practical guide for successfully performing GPR monitoring experiments to promote the application of GPR monitoring to study hydrological subsurface processes.

How to cite: Stephan, S., Jackisch, C., Allroggen, N., and Tronicke, J.: Imaging small-scale, fast subsurface flow processes: field examples and practical guidelines for GPR monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17678, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17678, 2026.

EGU26-18453 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.5

Extracting dispersion characteristics of the subsurface under a railway line from passively recorded DAS data 

Sverre Hassing, Deyan Draganov, Eric Verschuur, Joost van 't Schip, Erik Duijm, Schelto Crone, and Cees-Jan Mas

Two developments of this century have allowed for a greatly increased potential for monitoring of the near surface in geotechnical applications. First, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) allows glass fibre cables attached to an interrogator to be utilised for sensing seismic vibrations with dense spatial sampling. This allows for robust, permanent recording installations that cover large spreads. 

Second, the theory of seismic interferometry shows that with the use of ambient noise, under certain conditions, any recorded trace can be turned into a virtual-source position. In the most common application, the same event, recorded at multiple positions that share a travelpath, must be crosscorrelated to obtain a virtual shot. For the full response, this must be repeated for all sources on a surface effectively surrounding the medium of interest and the results stacked.

The combination of DAS and seismic interferometry for real-time monitoring require large amounts of passive data to be collected. This does mean that subsequent processing workflows have to be adapted according to computational capabilities. Even for relatively simple workflows, high-performance computing concepts must be applied to keep processing speed aligned with data collection.

Given the large amounts of recorded data, it becomes tempting to adopt the mindset that better results are obtained by simply stacking more data. However, for seismic interferometry, a proper selection of useful noise is essential in retrieving good results.

One of the proposed monitoring applications of seismic interferometry on DAS data is for monitoring the subsurface under railway lines. The shear modulus is used to monitor the strength of the soil. As such, surface-wave analysis methods are the seismic investigation method of choice. The advantage of monitoring close to active railway lines is that passing trains provide strong noise sources. When a train passes directly past the sensors, the wavefield is very complex, but waves generated by the train propagate both backwards and ahead. These waves can be used for seismic interferometry. As different trains generate different source spectra for the wavefield, multiple different trains must be included in the data and stacked after seismic interferometry to obtain a broader frequency band.

The dataset that we use is from an 8-km-long straight section of DAS cable along a rail line between Rotterdam and Delft in the Netherlands. We estimate the passage of a train along the DAS line with the envelope of the energy of the data. Then, we select windows ahead and behind the train that capture the generated waves. As the location of the train is known, we can use the trace closest to the train as a master trace and only the causal parts of the result are summed with the total stack. Finally, the dispersion spectrum is computed from the virtual shots to extract dispersion information along the line.

Together with intermediate results, we show that consideration of the noise sources that are present and how to utilise these leads to improved results. This requires more preprocessing but also finally decreases the amount of data that must be crosscorrelated.

How to cite: Hassing, S., Draganov, D., Verschuur, E., van 't Schip, J., Duijm, E., Crone, S., and Mas, C.-J.: Extracting dispersion characteristics of the subsurface under a railway line from passively recorded DAS data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18453, 2026.

EGU26-18528 | ECS | Orals | SM6.5

An iterative algorithm for estimating and accounting for 3D TEM modeling errors in 1D inversion 

Frederik Alexander Falk, Thomas Mejer Hansen, and Anders Vest Christiansen

Systematic modeling errors arising from incomplete forward modeling theory in transient electromagnetic (TEM) inversion, such as using a 1D forward model to interpret data from inherently 3D subsurface structures, bias inversion results. It is difficult to identify these errors as erroneous 1D models often fit the data within the assumed noise level. A solution is to perform the inversion in a full 3D framework. However, 3D inversion is constrained by several challenges, such as a high demand for computational resources and increased regularization requirements. These challenges typically result in simplistic or smooth inversion models, the exclusion of probabilistic approaches, and an inability to handle complex prior information. We present an algorithm that iteratively refines a nonlinear estimate of the 3D modeling error, enabling the continued use of flexible 1D TEM inversion schemes, such as Bayesian inversion with complex priors, even in the presence of 3D effects. The algorithm iteratively refines an estimate of the error by projecting the inversion model onto a coarse 3D mesh and simulating a 3D response. By simulating data for the corresponding laterally homogenous (1D) model, the 3D error can be estimated and used to correct the data. We test the algorithm on synthetic 3D TEM data, inverted using a 1D probabilistic framework while using the median posterior model for the error estimate. We also present a test on a real airborne TEM dataset from Denmark, and in both synthetic and real tests we use the residual between the observed data and the 3D response of the projected inversion model as a quantitative performance measure.  The results show that the algorithm consistently improves the agreement between observed and simulated 3D data while also either removing or significantly dampening 3D artifacts in the final 1D inversion model. This iterative approach provides a solution that is otherwise typically provided by full 3D inversion, while preserving the advantages of 1D frameworks and with promising implications for improved interpretability of 3D structures in 1D inversion frameworks.

How to cite: Falk, F. A., Hansen, T. M., and Christiansen, A. V.: An iterative algorithm for estimating and accounting for 3D TEM modeling errors in 1D inversion, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18528, 2026.

Probabilistic geophysical inversion methods increasingly provide ensembles of subsurface physical property models, offering valuable insight into data-driven uncertainty. However, the geological interpretation of such inversion results remains challenging, as uncertainty is typically quantified in terms of the physical parameter space rather than in terms of geological structure. Translating probabilistic inversion outcomes into consistent geological models is therefore still often performed in an ad hoc or deterministic manner.

We present the probabilistic data assimilation framework GeoBUS for the geological interpretation of geophysical inversion results. GeoBUS operates on scalar-field-based implicit geological models and treats geological structures as uncertain quantities that can be updated using observational constraints. The framework is independent of the specific geophysical inversion algorithm used and can assimilate probabilistic inversion results alongside other sources of geological information.

We test GeoBUS using a synthetic case study. A reference geological model is defined and used to generate corresponding electrical resistivity tomography data, which are subsequently inverted using a probabilistic inversion scheme to obtain an ensemble of resistivity models. These inversion results are then assimilated in GeoBUS through petrophysical consistency relationships, yielding posterior ensembles of geological scalar fields that can be directly compared to the known reference model for validation of the workflow.

In a second step, we extend the study by sequentially assimilating additional geological information. In this example, borehole interface depths are incorporated to illustrate how GeoBUS naturally accommodates heterogeneous observations and progressively reduces structural uncertainty. This demonstrates the flexibility of the framework and its potential for bridging the gap between probabilistic geophysical inversion and geological modeling in applied geophysics.

How to cite: Bobe, C., von Harten, J., and Wellmann, F.: GeoBUS: A Probabilistic Data Assimilation Framework for Geological Interpretation of Geophysical Inversion Results, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19498, 2026.

EGU26-19932 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.5

Assessing the Feasibility of Detecting Water-Filled Cavities Along Seismic Reflection Profiles: A Synthetic Study 

Somaye bayat, Tiernan Henry, and Christopher J Bean

The detection of underground cavities is important for geotechnical safety, groundwater assessment, and subsurface characterization. Fluid-filled cavities in karst areas can strongly influence seismic wavefields due to the contrast between the cavity contents and the surrounding rock. Interaction between seismic waves and cavities can lead to partial trapping of energy, producing reverberations and resonant signals that extend beyond the primary arrivals and appear as characteristic spectral peaks in the frequency domain.

In this study, we investigate the potential of seismic reflection data to identify deep (200m-800m) water-filled cavities (conduits) based on these characteristic responses observed along a seismic profile. Numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation are used to examine the development of cavity-induced resonances and their sensitivity to cavity properties and subsurface conditions. The results indicate that although cavity-induced resonance signatures are strongest at traces located directly above the cavity, they can still be used to determine the lateral position of the cavity along a seismic profile. We are using these numerical studies as a prelude to investigating deep ground water resources in Ireland’s extensive limestones, many of which exhibit karstification. In particular, we are developing spectral and other templates based on numerical simulations for expected deep conduit structures. These templates will be matched with real observations by re-examining existing deep reflection seismic data bases, in the search for deep water-bearing karst structures.

How to cite: bayat, S., Henry, T., and Bean, C. J.: Assessing the Feasibility of Detecting Water-Filled Cavities Along Seismic Reflection Profiles: A Synthetic Study, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19932, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19932, 2026.

EGU26-21694 | Orals | SM6.5

Rapid drone and ground magnetic mapping of subsurface fractures during a volcano-tectonic crisis in Grindavík, on the Reykjanes Peninsula SW Iceland 

Elisa Piispa, Catherine Gallagher, Sindri Bernholt, Gunnlaugur Einarsson, Ögmundur Erlendsson, Katrín Karlsdóttir, Magnús Sigurgeirsson, Robert Askew, Daniel Ben-Yehoshua, Birgir Óskarsson, Sydney Gunnarson, Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson, and Gunnlaugur Björnsson

We applied an integrated drone- and ground-based magnetometry workflow to map shallow subsurface fractures and cavities inside the town of Grindavík, during the 2023-2025 volcano-tectonic crisis on the Reykjanes Peninsula SW Iceland. Since10 November 2023 a total of 12 dike intrusions have occurred under the Sundhnúkur crater row from a shallow magma reservoir at Svartsengi, 9 of which resulted in fissure eruptions. Three of these dikes propagated underneath the town of Grindavík triggering widespread fault reactivation, fracturing, and surface deformation. Two main grabens formed above intrusions in the west and east of the town, with a maximum measured vertical displacement of 1.5 m. Short-wavelength linear and elliptical magnetic lows delineated open or partially open fractures and localized cavities hidden beneath the surface. These open fractures and cavities or void spaces were then verified with field observations, LiDAR surface deformation, and targeted shallow excavations. Comparison with historical aerial photographs indicates several anomalies correspond to reactivated, and further opened, pre-existing fractures along the main graben that cuts through the town. This integrated drone and ground-based approach enabled rapid mapping of the major fracture networks in inaccessible terrain, maintaining operator safety. In turn this guided near-real time hazard assessments, and supported stakeholder decision-making, by revealing fracture continuity, areas of sinkhole development within the fracture lineaments, as well as aperture variability and branching patterns along the fractures. Forward magnetic modelling shows that the anomaly shapes and amplitudes are compatible with fracture and void sources within the upper ~10-20 m of bedrock. This study demonstrates the first combined application of drone and ground magnetometry for rapid real-time fracture mapping in an urban post-volcano-tectonic crisis event setting which has affected the >3,700 local residents of the town of Grindavík.

How to cite: Piispa, E., Gallagher, C., Bernholt, S., Einarsson, G., Erlendsson, Ö., Karlsdóttir, K., Sigurgeirsson, M., Askew, R., Ben-Yehoshua, D., Óskarsson, B., Gunnarson, S., Guðmundsson, M. T., and Björnsson, G.: Rapid drone and ground magnetic mapping of subsurface fractures during a volcano-tectonic crisis in Grindavík, on the Reykjanes Peninsula SW Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21694, 2026.

EGU26-485 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.6

Reprocessing and interpretation of vintage seisimc reflection profiles in the offshore Campi Flegrei caldera 

Giuseppe Ferrara, Pier Paolo Bruno, and Mauro Antonio Di Vito

In this study, we reprocessed and interpreted seven vintage deep-seismic profiles acquired offshore Campi Flegrei by OGS in the 1970s (Finetti and Morelli, 1974), whose potential could not be fully exploited at the time due to technological limitations. The reprocessing of vintage seismic reflection data represents a valuable scientific opportunity, particularly in geologically complex settings such as the Campi Flegrei area. Despite the complexity of the subsurface, deep geophysical exploration in the area has thus far relied mainly on potential-field methods and passive-source seismic tomography, both of which lack the resolution required to unravel the subsurface architecture at depth. Our main goal was to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio and improve depth imaging of these offset-limited datasets using the Common Reflection Surface (CRS; Zhang et al., 2001; Deidda, 2012) method alongside pre-stack migration techniques (Yilmaz, 2001).

The CRS technique improves subsurface imaging by increasing the signal-to-noise ratio, reflector continuity, and the visibility of dipping events. Unlike traditional common-depth-point (CDP) stacking, it accounts for lateral heterogeneities and dipping structures by using additional kinematic parameters and integrating information from adjacent CDP gathers (Deidda, 2012). By summing amplitudes along reflector segments, CRS produces higher-quality common-offset gathers suitable for the application of pre-stack migration methods (Garabito et al., 2012), particularly when the aim is to improve overall depth imaging rather than resolve subtle details. This is especially relevant because pre-stack depth migration (PSDM; Yilmaz, 2001) yields more reliable seismic images in volcanic environments, where strong vertical and lateral velocity variations and structurally complex subsurface conditions make the assumptions underlying post-stack migration unrealistic. On the other hand, PSDM requires robust and well-constrained velocity models.

The initial velocity model for PSDM was subsequently refined using the iterative Deregowski Loop approach (Deregowski, 1985, 1990). This method relies on common-offset binning of pre-stack data to identify velocity errors and suppress noise and unwanted lateral reflections, followed by Kirchhoff depth migration. Starting from an initial velocity model, refinement is carried out through the analysis of Common Image Gathers (CIGs), where residual moveout (RMO) is evaluated using semblance functions.

The combined use of CRS and PSDM in this work proved particularly effective in improving the imaging quality of the vintage profiles. This approach enabled the construction of a consistent velocity model and the effective use of seismic data for a better understanding of the geological and structural framework of the study area. The integration of CRS and PSDM also ensured coherent results and good comparability among the different seismic lines, providing a robust basis for geological interpretation. The reprocessed data support a reconstruction of the subsurface at considerable depth, allowing the identification of fault structures, volcanic edifices, explosive eruptive sequences, and preferential gas-leakage pathways. Reliable seismic imaging from reflection-seismic exploration data is essential to avoid interpretative ambiguities in the Campi Flegrei caldera, a highly complex volcanic system influenced by rising magmatic fluids, pervasive faulting, and intrusive bodies buried beneath younger volcaniclastic deposits.

How to cite: Ferrara, G., Bruno, P. P., and Di Vito, M. A.: Reprocessing and interpretation of vintage seisimc reflection profiles in the offshore Campi Flegrei caldera, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-485, 2026.

EGU26-3857 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.6

High-Resolution Seismic Imaging of Vulcano Island Based on Matrix Imaging 

Iván Cabrera Pérez, Douglas Stumpp, Arnaud Burtin, Julien Sfalcin, and Matteo Lupi

Imaging the subsurface plumbing systems of active volcanoes is essential for understanding magmatic and fluid transport processes and for improving eruption forecasting. However, seismic imaging in volcanic environments is intrinsically challenging due to strong heterogeneities, intense wave scattering, and rapidly evolving geological conditions. These difficulties are often compounded by complex topography and logistical constraints, which limit the deployment of dense seismic networks and reduce the effectiveness of conventional source-based imaging approaches.

In this context, passive techniques exploiting incoherent seismic wavefields, particularly Ambient Noise Tomography (ANT), have become central tools for volcanic imaging. Since its introduction, ANT has enabled the retrieval of inter-station Green’s functions from ambient noise cross-correlations, allowing imaging of subsurface structures without active sources. While early applications focused mainly on shear-wave velocity (Vs) models, recent developments have demonstrated the potential of ambient noise data to constrain additional physical properties, including three-dimensional seismic attenuation.

Building on these advances, a matrix-based imaging framework has recently been introduced to seismology. Matrix Imaging exploits the array response matrix constructed from impulse responses between all receiver pairs, which can be obtained from ambient noise correlations. This approach allows the coherent extraction of scattered and reflected body-wave energy embedded in noise records, without requiring a detailed a priori velocity model, making it particularly well suited for sparse arrays in strongly heterogeneous volcanic settings.

We applied Matrix Imaging to ambient seismic noise data recorded at Vulcano Island (Italy), a volcano characterized by recurrent unrest episodes but no eruptions since 1888–1890. Previous studies suggest a deep magma reservoir at ~20 km depth and a possible shallow storage zone at ~2 km, overlain by an active hydrothermal system. Interpretations of recent unrest, including the 2021 episode, remain debated. This study aims to provide new constraints on the shallow structure of Vulcano Island and to assess the potential of matrix-based methods for high-resolution passive imaging of active volcanic systems.

How to cite: Cabrera Pérez, I., Stumpp, D., Burtin, A., Sfalcin, J., and Lupi, M.: High-Resolution Seismic Imaging of Vulcano Island Based on Matrix Imaging, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3857, 2026.

EGU26-5476 | ECS | Orals | SM6.6

Revealing Initial Explosive Eruptions in the Southern Pausanias Volcanic Field (Southern Aegean Volcanic Arc) from Seismic Reflection Data 

Carolin Egelhof, Christian Hübscher, Matthias Hartge, Annalena Friedrich, Jan Oliver Eisermann, and Felix Gross

The Pausanias volcanic field forms part of the South Aegean Volcanic Arc and is located within the Epidavros Basin west of Methana Island in the Saronic Gulf. Volcanic activity initiated around 450 ka, with the most recent eruption dated to approximately 14 ka. Given the close proximity of the volcanic field to the Greek mainland, eruption recurrence rates and eruptive styles—explosive versus effusive—are critical parameters for regional geohazard assessment. Previous studies were largely based on bathymetric data, unmigrated legacy seismic profiles, and petrochemical analyses of seafloor sediments and rock samples.

Seismic reflection data calibrated with results from IODP Expedition 398 now allow, for the first time, a systematic discrimination between effusive and explosive submarine volcanic products. This approach was applied to the Pausanias volcanic field using new high-resolution multichannel seismic data acquired during the MULTI-MAREX-2 expedition (MSM135) aboard RV MARIA S. MERIAN in spring 2025. MULTI-MAREX is a research initiative of the German Marine Research Alliance (DAM) aimed at improving the assessment of geomarine extreme events and supporting the development of mitigation strategies through a living-lab approach.

Our analysis focuses on five of the six previously identified volcanic edifices. The seismic sections resolve the internal architecture of the volcanic cones, enabling the identification of distinct constructional styles and eruptive phases. The two northern most volcanoes are characterized by complex channelized and ridge-like morphologies composed of multiple lava flows. Their internal reflection patterns are typical of effusive eruptions of low-viscosity lava which explains the ridge-dominated seafloor morphology. Vertically stacked edifices indicate a polygenetic evolutionary history.

In contrast, three of the southern volcanoes exhibit predominantly conical morphologies. Their lower edifices are characterized by outward-prograding, evenly stratified seismic reflections. Core–seismic integration of IODP Expedition 398 sediment data and seismic imagery from the Kolumbo volcanic chain indicates that such reflection patterns are typical of volcaniclastic deposits formed during explosive eruptions. The uppermost parts of the cones, however, display more chaotic, high-amplitude reflections, interpreted as coherent volcanic material such as lava flows or coarse tephra. This stratigraphic transition documents a temporal shift from predominantly explosive activity toward weakly explosive or effusive eruptions during the final constructional stages. The documented occurrence of explosive submarine eruptions significantly increases the geohazard potential of this densely populated region.

How to cite: Egelhof, C., Hübscher, C., Hartge, M., Friedrich, A., Eisermann, J. O., and Gross, F.: Revealing Initial Explosive Eruptions in the Southern Pausanias Volcanic Field (Southern Aegean Volcanic Arc) from Seismic Reflection Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5476, 2026.

EGU26-5699 | ECS | Orals | SM6.6

Anisotropic Seismic Imaging of Mount Etna: Interplay Between Tectonics and Magma Ascent 

Rosalia Lo Bue, Francesco Rappisi, Marco Firetto Carlino, Elisabetta Giampiccolo, Ornella Cocina, Brandon Paul Vanderbeek, and Manuele Faccenda

Understanding the crustal structure and magma migration pathways beneath Mt. Etna (Italy) is crucial for volcanic hazard assessment. While isotropic seismic models successfully image major velocity anomalies beneath the volcano, they often neglect the significant seismic anisotropy generated by aligned fractures, fault systems, and magmatic bodies, potentially biasing interpretations of the volcanic plumbing system. This work presents the first comprehensive 3D P-wave anisotropic tomography of Mt. Etna, obtained from the inversion of local earthquake P-wave travel times assuming a transversely isotropic medium with an arbitrarily oriented symmetry axis. By simultaneously recovering isotropic velocities and three anisotropic parameters (magnitude, azimuth, and dip), the inversion allows for a more physically consistent imaging of the crustal volume beneath Mt. Etna. The model reveals a high-velocity complex in the central-southern sector of the volcano, characterized by a distinctive anisotropic signature with slow axes arranged in a near-circular pattern. This configuration is interpreted as a system of radial fractures and dykes associated with the emplacement of solidified magmatic bodies. At greater depths, a high-velocity volume deepening toward the northwest corresponds to the Hyblean foreland crustal units, which confine a low-velocity anomaly interpreted as magmatic fluids stored within the crust. A major tectonic discontinuity within these units appears to act as a preferential pathway for magma ascent from depth to the surface. By explicitly accounting for crustal anisotropy, this study provides new insights into the structural conditions leading to the emplacement of Mt. Etna, highlighting the interplay between regional tectonics, local stress fields, and magma ascent processes. More broadly, the results underscore the potential of seismic imaging that accounts for anisotropy to investigate the internal architecture of volcanic systems and, from a monitoring perspective, to track the evolution of stress fields and magma migration within the crust.

How to cite: Lo Bue, R., Rappisi, F., Firetto Carlino, M., Giampiccolo, E., Cocina, O., Vanderbeek, B. P., and Faccenda, M.: Anisotropic Seismic Imaging of Mount Etna: Interplay Between Tectonics and Magma Ascent, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5699, 2026.

EGU26-5726 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.6

 Reconstructing the Magmatic and Volcanic Evolution of the Vesturdjúp Basin (Offshore Iceland) Using Reflection Seismic Imagery 

Maryse C. Schmidt, Christian Hübscher, Jonas Preine, Jonathan Ford, and Dominik Pałgan

Intraplate off-axis volcanism west of Iceland forms a volcanic province whose origin remains largely unexplored, despite extensive research on the nearby Reykjanes Ridge and onshore Iceland. Integrating 2950 km of multi-channel reflection seismic data with vertical gravity gradients, this study investigates the Vesturdjúp Basin (1000 – 2100 m water depth), where 43 volcanic edifices are preserved in the reflection seismic data. In the northern part of the basin, volcanic cones align along two perpendicular chains and a ridge-parallel lineament, while the southern part of the basin exhibits more dispersed volcanism.

Seismic facies analysis indicates a multi-stage magmatic evolution, shifting from early effusive flows to an explosive cone-building phase, before returning to effusive activity. Deep-water explosive volcanism is indicated by diatreme-like sub-surface geometries and outward-prograding flank reflections, interpreted as volcaniclastic aprons. Detailed seismostratigraphic reconstruction of representative edifices shows that construction progressed through repeated cycles of crater excavation and infill, accompanied by small-scale mass-transport deposits along the by oversteepened flanks.

Stratigraphic correlation suggests that volcanism was modulated by a pulsed magmatic regime. The timing of eruptive activity and intervening quiescence likely correlates with fluctuations in Iceland plume flux and regional tectonic reconfigurations. The spatial distribution of volcanic centres reflects the reactivation of inherited lithospheric weaknesses and rift-related discontinuities. These structural corridors may have provided pathways for plume-derived magma to ascend through the cooling off-axis lithosphere. Our results demonstrate how high-resolution seismic imaging can help to reconstruct the formation history of off-axis volcanism where structural inheritance and transient plume pulses overlap.

How to cite: Schmidt, M. C., Hübscher, C., Preine, J., Ford, J., and Pałgan, D.:  Reconstructing the Magmatic and Volcanic Evolution of the Vesturdjúp Basin (Offshore Iceland) Using Reflection Seismic Imagery, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5726, 2026.

EGU26-6577 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.6

Ambient Noise Cross-Correlations along Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) for Imaging the Subsurface at Stromboli Volcano  

Lilian Hebrard, Eléonore Stutzmann, Jean-Philippe Metaxian, Francesco Biagioli, Giorgio Lacanna, Fabian Bonilla, Martin Schimmel, Pascal Bernard, and Maurizio Ripepe

The deployment of dense seismic arrays on volcanoes has increased significantly over the past decades, enabling more precise monitoring of volcanic activity. While short-period sensors are commonly used, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) represents a promising complementary technology, providing high spatial resolution and remote location of the interrogator. Accurate monitoring requires a robust understanding of seismic wave propagation, particularly within the shallow subsurface beneath the sensors. On volcanic edifices, the distribution of eruptive deposits along the flanks can be highly heterogeneous, leading to strong lateral variations in physical properties that can significantly aFect seismic records.

In this study, we use ambient noise cross-correlation to characterize the subsurface velocity structure beneath a 3 km long DAS cable deployed on Stromboli volcano, Italy. We analyse two months of continuous strain rate data acquired on this persistently active volcano, which allows the application of a passive approach. Empirical Green’s Functions (EGFs) are retrieved using Phase Cross-Correlation and times-scale Phase Weighted Stack methods. They are validated through comparison with EGFs obtained from collocated short-period seismic sensors. Local phase and group velocities are then computed along the optical fiber and inverted to determine the 2D S-wave velocity profile. We clearly identify 2 distinct regions along the profile which are correlated with changes of local topography, eruptive activity and deposits.

How to cite: Hebrard, L., Stutzmann, E., Metaxian, J.-P., Biagioli, F., Lacanna, G., Bonilla, F., Schimmel, M., Bernard, P., and Ripepe, M.: Ambient Noise Cross-Correlations along Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) for Imaging the Subsurface at Stromboli Volcano , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6577, 2026.

EGU26-6897 | Posters on site | SM6.6

Mapping Crustal Structure and Stress in the Kivu Rift from Bayesian Anisotropic Tomography 

Adrien Oth, Francesco Rappisi, Julien Barrière, Nicolas d'Oreye, Delphine Smittarello, Manuele Faccenda, Gianmarco Del Piccolo, and Brandon P. Vanderbeek

We present a probabilistic anisotropic P-wave tomographic study of the Kivu segment of the western East African Rift, incorporating local seismicity recorded by the Kivu Seismic Network. Using a Bayesian inversion approach, we map both isotropic velocity variations and directional anisotropy, providing robust estimates of uncertainties. Our results reveal broad low-velocity zones (~–2%) likely associated with magma-rich regions, and fast domains corresponding to rigid crustal blocks. South of the Virunga Volcanic Province (VVP), fast anisotropic planes are predominantly rift-perpendicular, while rift-parallel orientations dominate in distal regions, especially in the easternmost sector. Numerical modelling indicates that volcanic and topographic loading can explain rift-perpendicular anisotropy near the VVP, but not the patterns observed farther from volcanic edifices, suggesting a combined influence of regional extension, magmatic activity, and long-lived structural inheritance. These findings provide new insights into the interplay between crustal structure, tectonic stress, and magmatism, with implications for rift evolution and regional seismic and volcanic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Oth, A., Rappisi, F., Barrière, J., d'Oreye, N., Smittarello, D., Faccenda, M., Del Piccolo, G., and Vanderbeek, B. P.: Mapping Crustal Structure and Stress in the Kivu Rift from Bayesian Anisotropic Tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6897, 2026.

EGU26-7944 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.6

New constraints on Vp/Vs ratios and stress distribution at Etna volcano from anisotropic joint P- and S-wave tomography 

Kira van Helden, Brandon Vanderbeek, Gianmarco Del Piccolo, Manuele Faccenda, Rosalia Lo Bue, Elisabetta Giampiccolo, Ornella Cocina, and Marco Firetto Carlino

The preferential alignment of eruptive fissures, dikes, sills, and (fluid-filled) microcracks with the local stress field - typical for the crust beneath volcanoes - causes the velocity of seismic waves to vary with propagation direction with respect to these aligned fractures (seismic anisotropy). Investigations based on shear wave splitting (Savage et al., 2010; Nardone et al., 2020; among others) and anisotropic P-wave tomography (Lo Bue et al., 2024; Del Piccolo et al., 2025) have demonstrated the presence of strong crustal anisotropy beneath Mt. Etna and other volcanic systems. However, the assumption of an isotropic crust is still common in seismic tomography, while methods for anisotropic tomography are still scarce and mostly limited to P-waves.

The well-established sensitivity of S-waves to anisotropy (shear wave splitting) suggests that extending anisotropic tomography methods to S-wave data may provide valuable new constraints on the anisotropic structure of volcanoes. Moreover, comparison of results of previous synthetic P- and S-wave tomography studies (Vanderbeek and Faccenda, 2021; Vanderbeek et al., 2023) indicates that S-wave data may be better capable of constraining shallow anisotropic heterogeneity. Additionally, Vp/Vs anomalies — often interpreted in terms of rock and fluid properties —exhibit a particularly strong directional dependence (Wang et al., 2012) in anisotropic media. This stresses the importance of coupling P- and S-wave data in anisotropic tomographic inversions.

We aim to show preliminary results of joint P- and S-wave anisotropic tomography, providing new constraints on the stress state and rock fluid properties of the crust beneath Mt. Etna. The method is an extension of the probabilistic anisotropic P-wave tomography method of Del Piccolo et al. (2025). Transdimensional Bayesian Monte Carlo sampling is applied to allow for robust uncertainty estimation, without the need for the subjective choice of damping and smoothing parameters that often limits more common deterministic tomography approaches.

How to cite: van Helden, K., Vanderbeek, B., Del Piccolo, G., Faccenda, M., Lo Bue, R., Giampiccolo, E., Cocina, O., and Firetto Carlino, M.: New constraints on Vp/Vs ratios and stress distribution at Etna volcano from anisotropic joint P- and S-wave tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7944, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7944, 2026.

EGU26-8151 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.6

Ambient noise surface wave tomography of Mt. Etna volcano structure during 2020-2021 

Simone Floridia, Sergio Carmelo Guglielmo Vinciguerra, Luca De Siena, and Guido Maria Adinolfi
Velocity tomography, superposed with local seismicity, provides key spatial constraints on the inner structure of an active Volcano such Mt. Etna Volcano. We present the results of an Ambient Noise Tomography carried out via SeisLib to retrieve Rayleigh surface-wave velocity models across the East Sicilian crust at multiple frequencies, each sampling different depth ranges.
Two years (2020-2021) of continuous vertical-component data from 12 INGV stations were analysed. Their spatial configuration minimizes volcanic tremor while maximizing interstation paths beneath Mt. Etna. The selected period is seasonally balanced and free of major eruptive activity. The frequency range (0.10-0.40Hz) for the Rayleigh-wave velocity models was chosen to isolate ambient noise generated by ocean-lithosphere interactions. For each frequency at which a Rayleigh-wave velocity model is retrieved, local seismicity within the corresponding depth range, identified through associated sensitivity kernels, are superposed.
Across the investigated depth range (2–24km), results reveal a low-velocity anomaly beneath Mt. Etna western flank, whose significance varies with depth. At shallow levels (<5km) it is in good agreement with the low-cohesion sediments of the Caltanissetta Basin. At 8–10km depth, the increasing temperature gradient suggests a possible ductile or partially molten volume trending northeastward. This volume remains largely aseismic down to ~18km, below which clustered seismicity is likely related to magma migration at ~23km.
Shallow low-velocity anomalies (~2–3km) beneath the Catania Plain are in good agreement with the hypothesized presence of hydrothermal fluids, supported by the Salinelle di Paternò mud volcanoes, while a moderately high-velocity anomaly beneath Mt. Etna is consistent with a mechanically stiff body, most likely an intrusively cooled magmatic intrusion. At intermediate depths (~5–10km), a low-velocity anomaly beneath the Nebrodi Chain, overlapping with seismicity, might reveal a fractured domain consistent with ongoing deformation processes. The southeastern sector is characterized by high seismic velocities, consistent to a mechanically rigid and thermally cold crust associated with extinct Hyblean volcanism.
Future developments will incorporate Love-wave dispersion to enable a joint Rayleigh–Love inversion, yielding a high-resolution Vs model with enhanced depth and lateral coverage. Coupling these results with constitutive-relation frameworks and computational thermodynamics will enable the development of a petrophysical inversion scheme, providing new constraints on the inner structure of Mt. Etna Volcano.

How to cite: Floridia, S., Vinciguerra, S. C. G., De Siena, L., and Adinolfi, G. M.: Ambient noise surface wave tomography of Mt. Etna volcano structure during 2020-2021, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8151, 2026.

EGU26-9240 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.6

Reassessing the volume of the Cape Riva eruption (Santorini) using integrated seismic imaging and marine sediment cores 

María Blanch Jover, Jens Karstens, Steffen Kutterolf, Willem Godert Maria van der Bilt, Aaron Arneke, Heidrun Kopp, Christian Berndt, Gareth J. Crutchley, Jonas Preine, and Paraskevi Nomikou

Explosive caldera-forming eruptions discharge large volumes of silicic magma and pose one of the greatest hazards to human population. Effective risk evaluation depends on detailed records of past events, however, accurately quantifying the volume of ejected material and therefore the magnitude of eruptions remains a challenge. This is particularly the case in marine settings, where much of the eruptive record is obscured or poorly preserved. Santorini in the Aegean Sea is one of the world’s most prominent calderas and the result of at least four caldera-forming eruptions. The 1600 BCE Minoan eruption represents the most recent caldera-forming event, and is among the most extensively studied eruptions worldwide. While recent marine geological and geophysical analyses enabled reconstruction of the 1600 BCE eruption volume and temporal evolution in greater detail, little is known about its predecessor, the caldera-forming Cape Riva eruption, which occurred at ~22 ka. Recent investigations of marine sediment cores suggest that the Cape Riva eruption produced a tephra volume comparable to or exceeding that of the Minoan eruption. In this study, we integrate for the first time high-resolution 2D and 3D seismic reflection data with sedimentological constraints from marine sediment cores to assess the volume of the Cape Riva eruption with high precision and compare it to the Minoan eruption. Our results reveal that the Cape Riva eruption emplaced, at least in near offshore areas, substantially thicker ignimbrite deposits than the Minoan eruption. These results imply that the Cape Riva eruption may have been larger than previously recognized and that previous offshore ignimbrite volumes attributed to the Minoan eruption may have been overestimated. Our study emphasizes the challenges of reconstructing large explosive eruptions in submarine environments, and highlights the importance of integrating high-resolution seismic imaging with marine sedimentological analyses to improve volume estimates.

How to cite: Blanch Jover, M., Karstens, J., Kutterolf, S., van der Bilt, W. G. M., Arneke, A., Kopp, H., Berndt, C., Crutchley, G. J., Preine, J., and Nomikou, P.: Reassessing the volume of the Cape Riva eruption (Santorini) using integrated seismic imaging and marine sediment cores, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9240, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9240, 2026.

EGU26-9371 | Orals | SM6.6

Melt re-injection into large magma reservoir at a shallow depth after giant caldera eruption at Kikai Caldera Volcano 

Nobukazu Seama, Akihiro Nagaya, Gou Fujie, Satoru Tanaka, Hiroko Sugioka, and Shuichi Kodaira

This study investigates the process of melt re-injection into a shallow, large magma reservoir after a giant caldera eruption, based on observational evidence. We chose the Kikai Caldera Volcano as our target because it experienced a giant caldera eruption, the Kikai-Akahoya (K-Ah) eruption, 7,300 years ago. High-resolution seismic reflection surveys and analyses of submarine deposits revealed that the uppermost seismic unit is a pyroclastic deposit produced by the K-Ah eruption, with its estimated volume of >71 km³ (Shimizu et al., 2024). The total bulk volume of the K-Ah eruption was then estimated to be 133–183 km³ in DRE (Dense Rock Equivalent), suggesting that it was probably the largest Holocene eruption. To investigate the current state of the magma reservoir beneath the Kikai Caldera Volcano, we conducted a seismic refraction survey using 39 ocean bottom seismometers and an airgun array along a 175 km survey line across the volcano. The results of the 2D P-wave velocity structure revealed a low-velocity anomaly with a reduction rate of over 15% (maximum 22%) directly beneath the volcano, indicating the existence of a large magma reservoir at a shallow depth of 2.5–6 km. This reservoir is approximately trapezoidal in shape, with a width at least equal to that of the inner caldera. The low-velocity anomaly enabled us to estimate the melt fraction to be 3–6%, but it could be limited to 10% at most. Integrating these results with petrological evidence allows us to propose a model of melt re-injection to form a magma reservoir in the same location as the shallow magma reservoir during the giant caldera eruption. The estimated magma depth during the K–Ah eruption period was 3–7 km (Saito et al., 2001, 2003), and the estimated magma depth for the post-caldera central lava dome formed after 3,900 years ago was 2–4 km (Hamada et al., 2023). These depths overlap with the 2.5–6 km depth of the present magma reservoir identified in this study. Furthermore, the central lava dome exceeds 32 km³ in volume and has a different rock composition from that of the K–Ah eruption magma (Tatsumi et al., 2018), suggesting that different melts were reinjected into the magma reservoir at the same location. The model suggests the following scenario: (1) the K–Ah eruption occurred 7,300 years ago, ejecting approximately 160 km³ of material; (2) caldera formation occurred immediately afterwards; (3) after 3,900 years ago, new melt was injected to form a shallow magma reservoir at the same location, with at least 32 km³ of lava reaching the surface to form the central dome; and (4) this is reflected in the current low-velocity anomaly, characterised by increased melting rates in the magma reservoir. This model may demonstrate a common feature of volcanoes that have experienced a giant caldera eruption, and the temporal variation in low-velocity anomalies in the shallow crust is a crucial indicator for eruption prediction.

How to cite: Seama, N., Nagaya, A., Fujie, G., Tanaka, S., Sugioka, H., and Kodaira, S.: Melt re-injection into large magma reservoir at a shallow depth after giant caldera eruption at Kikai Caldera Volcano, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9371, 2026.

EGU26-10379 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.6

Does Deep Magma Power the Campi Flegrei Caldera? Evidence from Seismic Tomography and Anisotropy 

Francesco Rappisi, Adrien Oth, Julien Barrière, Manuele Faccenda, Gianmarco Del Piccolo, and Rosalia Lo Bue

The Campi Flegrei caldera is currently experiencing significant ground deformation and bradyseismic activity, yet the subsurface processes driving this unrest remain debated. Competing interpretations invoke magmatic intrusion, hydrothermal circulation, or regional tectonic stress, with no consensus on the role of magma at depth.

Here, we present results from a new probabilistic high-resolution seismic tomography of the Campi Flegrei caldera, imaging both isotropic velocity structure and seismic anisotropy using P-wave arrival times from a recently published, machine-learning–derived seismic catalog (Tan et al., 2025). The model reveals a pronounced low-velocity volume extending from shallow levels down to approximately 7 km depth. Within this region, anisotropy patterns are characterized by vertically oriented fast axes and predominantly horizontal slow axes, consistent with aligned vertical cracks or dike-like structures. The magnitude and spatial coherence of the inferred anisotropy, together with the observed low velocities, are difficult to reconcile with purely hydrothermal or tectonic processes. Instead, they suggest a stress regime compatible with upward pressurization from depth, potentially associated with magmatic intrusion. These interpretations are further supported by numerical modeling that tests alternative source configurations and reproduces the observed anisotropy orientations only when deep magmatic pressurization is included. While alternative mechanisms cannot be fully excluded, our results indicate that magma may play an active role in driving the ongoing deformation of the Campi Flegrei caldera.

These findings provide new constraints on the physical processes underlying caldera unrest and have important implications for hazard assessment in one of the most densely populated volcanic regions in the world.

 

Tan, X., Tramelli, A., Gammaldi, S., Beroza, G. C., Ellsworth, W. L., & Marzocchi, W. (2025). A clearer view of the current phase of unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera. Science, 390(6768), 70-75.

How to cite: Rappisi, F., Oth, A., Barrière, J., Faccenda, M., Del Piccolo, G., and Lo Bue, R.: Does Deep Magma Power the Campi Flegrei Caldera? Evidence from Seismic Tomography and Anisotropy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10379, 2026.

EGU26-11160 | ECS | Orals | SM6.6

Earthquake Reflection Imaging and Migration of the Campi Flegrei Caldera from Passive Seismic Data 

Andrea Sollai, Aldo Zollo, Sahar Nazeri, Grazia De Landro, Toktam Zand, Xiawan Xhou, and Jean Virieux

Seismic imaging of active volcanic areas is crucial for characterizing subsurface structures that govern fluid circulation, deformation processes, and seismic hazard. In this study, we apply earthquake reflection imaging techniques to passive seismic data recorded at the Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy), one of the most active and densely populated volcanic areas in Europe. Building upon a methodology previously validated on synthetic datasets, we assess the capability of passive seismic migration to image crustal-scale reflectors from natural earthquake data.

The proposed approach adapts pre-stack depth Kirchhoff migration (Schneider, 1978) to passive seismic data by exploiting multiple earthquake-generated seismic phases (PP, SS, SP, and PS). To assess the effects of irregular source–receiver geometry, focal mechanism variability, and mixed P–S wavefields, the workflow was first tested on a synthetic dataset generated according to the Campi Flegrei source–station configuration and subsurface model. These tests demonstrate that, despite the lack of controlled acquisition geometry, coherent reflectors can be reliably recovered under realistic noise conditions and velocity uncertainties.

We then applied the validated procedure to real earthquake data recorded during the most recent phase of unrest at Campi Flegrei. From a catalogue of 3,900 high-precision relocated earthquakes (NLL-SSST-WC; Lomax et al., 2022) that occurred between January and September 2025, we constructed five vertical seismic profiles, each 1.5–3.5 km in length and extending to depths of approximately 13 km, by selecting subsets of well-aligned events and stations. Migration was performed using a velocity model derived from available seismic constraints (Zollo et al., 2008) and recent tomographic results (De Landro et al., 2025).

From the migrated sections obtained for the four seismic phases (PP, SP, SS, and PS) along five profiles with different orientations, we applied least-squares (LS) migration (Tarantola, 1984), combined with Shifted Total Variation (SVT) regularization (Zand et al., 2023) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA), to enhance and identify laterally continuous, high-amplitude features interpretable as subsurface interfaces. The results consistently reveal reflectors at depth of approximately 2.7 km, 5.0 km, 6.8 km, 9.5 km, and 11 km.

Our results demonstrate that earthquake-based reflection imaging is a powerful and promising approach for resolving the internal structure of active volcanic systems, even under highly irregular acquisition conditions. This study represents a first step toward the systematic application of passive seismic migration at Campi Flegrei, providing a new framework for imaging subsurface structures that are critical to understanding volcanic dynamics and hazard assessment.

How to cite: Sollai, A., Zollo, A., Nazeri, S., De Landro, G., Zand, T., Xhou, X., and Virieux, J.: Earthquake Reflection Imaging and Migration of the Campi Flegrei Caldera from Passive Seismic Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11160, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11160, 2026.

EGU26-12484 | Orals | SM6.6

Crustal deformation and deep magma source beneath the Eifel volcanic fields from Large-N seismic experiment 

Xiaohui Yuan, Torsten Dahm, Marius Isken, Claus Milkereit, Christoph Sens-Schönfelder, and Hao Zhang

The Eifel volcanic fields represent one of the most prominent expressions of the Cenozoic volcanism in Central Europe. Volcanic activity has occurred episodically since ~40 Ma, with the most recent major eruption at ~13 ka producing highly explosive, gas-rich magmas. The Eifel comprises two Quaternary subfields, each extending over approximately 60×40 km² and hosting numerous volcanic centers. The occurrence of deep low-frequency earthquakes, crustal seismicity, active degassing and continuous regional uplift indicate ongoing magmatic processes. Using data from the recently deployed Eifel Large-N passive-source seismic experiment, which involved ~500 seismic stations of different sensor types, we image the structure of the crust and mantle lithosphere beneath the Eifel volcanic fields using receiver functions. Our results reveal significantly lateral variations in crustal thickness that reflect Variscan orogenic structures subsequently modified by Cenozoic volcanism. The Moho depth decreases from northwest to southeast across the Siegen Thrust and is locally uplifted by up to ~5 km beneath the two Quaternary volcanic fields, reaching depths of ~28 km. The crystalline basement is elevated by ~3 km beneath the East Eifel, indicating substantial crustal exhumation. Beneath the East Eifel, the lithosphere is thinned to ~40 km and spatially correlates with the occurrence of deep low-frequency earthquakes. Together, these observations are consistent with asthenospheric upwelling, which likely facilitates magma generation and fluid migration associated with Eifel volcanism.

How to cite: Yuan, X., Dahm, T., Isken, M., Milkereit, C., Sens-Schönfelder, C., and Zhang, H.: Crustal deformation and deep magma source beneath the Eifel volcanic fields from Large-N seismic experiment, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12484, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12484, 2026.

EGU26-12743 * | Orals | SM6.6 | Highlight

New Explosive Shallow-Marine Volcanoes on the Milos Shelf and near Kos Revealed by Seismic Reflection Data 

Christian Hübscher, Jan Oliver Eisermann, Felix Gross, Janina Kreh, Carolin Egelhof, Annalena Friedrich, and Mathias Hartge

One of the objectives of MULTI-MAREX-2 expedition (MSM135) aboard RV MARIA S. MERIAN was to assess potential geohazards associated with shallow-marine explosive volcanism along the South Aegean Volcanic Arc. In this context, we identified two previously undocumented polygenetic shallow-water volcanic systems on the Milos shelf and in the area of the Kos–Nisyros–Yali island group, i.e. in proximity to two major volcanic centers.

Bathymetric data reveal a circular depression approximately 2 km in diameter at a water depth of ~200 m and south of Milos. Seismic reflection data show outward-prograding, upward-concave reflection geometries within an approximately 50 m thick outer ring, which we interpret as volcaniclastic deposits formed by an explosive eruption. The interpretation of this structure as a shallow-water volcano is supported by a ring-shaped positive magnetic anomaly. The volcano-forming eruption may be linked to the formation of the Green Lahar deposits on Milos (T. Cavailhes, pers. comm.). Beneath the main edifice, seismic data image additional outward-prograding sedimentary units, likewise interpreted as volcaniclastic deposits, indicating a polygenetic evolutionary history. Hydroacoustic data reveal gas flares in the water column, documenting ongoing hydrothermal activity that may be responsible for the formation of the mapped sinkholes in the area.

In Kefalos Bay and along the southern coast of Kos, multibeam bathymetry reveals another shallow-water volcano with a crater diameter of approximately 2 km at the seafloor. The southern flanks of this edifice are collapsed, most likely as a result of lateral spreading above mechanically weak volcaniclastic deposits related to the Kos Plateau Tuff eruption at 161 ka. The crater itself is infilled by younger volcaniclastic deposits with a flat top in a water depth of ca. 180 m.

These findings demonstrate that explosive shallow-marine volcanism has occurred at multiple locations along the South Aegean Volcanic Arc more frequently than previously thought, and represents an underestimated geohazard, particularly in coastal regions close to populated areas. This study also demonstrates that seismic data are required to distinguish between monogenetic and polygenetic submarine volcanoes.

How to cite: Hübscher, C., Eisermann, J. O., Gross, F., Kreh, J., Egelhof, C., Friedrich, A., and Hartge, M.: New Explosive Shallow-Marine Volcanoes on the Milos Shelf and near Kos Revealed by Seismic Reflection Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12743, 2026.

EGU26-13399 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.6

Dynamics of magma reservoir before and after volcanic eruptions at the Axial Volcano in the Eastern Pacific using time-lapse seismic imaging method 

Yan Zhao, Hélène Carton, Satish Singh, Maryam Ardalan, and Graham kent

Unraveling the nature (physical state) of magma reservoirs beneath active volcanoes is essential to understand their eruption potential. Magma can be in a pure melt state and hence it is more likely to erupt if supplied by fresh melt from below, or in a mush state that is less likely to erupt. However, imaging magma reservoirs on land and deciphering their physical properties is inherently difficult, but the submarine environment offers more favorable conditions and therefore magma reservoirs have been commonly imaged beneath fast and intermediate spreading centers. Moreover, when several collocated high-quality seismic datasets are available at different times, time-lapse seismic analysis, commonly used in industry, could be applied to study the evolution of the reservoir through multiple eruptions cycles.

The Axial Volcano is a large submarine volcano at the intersection of the Juan de Fuca Ridge and Cobb hotspot that hosts many hydrothermal vent fields and has erupted three times (1998, 2011 and 2015) in recent years. The volcano was the site of a seismic reflection survey in 2002 and some lines were reshot after the 2011 and 2015 eruptions, respectively in 2012 and in 2019. In this study, we focus on one NW-SE oriented profile and apply time-lapse techniques to investigate changes in the magma reservoir before and after the 2011 and 2015 eruptions. Time-lapse signals could be due to the change in depth of the top of magma reservoir and/or a change in the state (melt versus mush) of the magma. The three data vintages were first processed to remove the effect of the data acquisition footprint, which included deghosting, wavelet shaping, amplitude balancing, and time alignment. Dynamic time warping was applied to measure time shifts on stacked images, and amplitude energy changes (reflecting impedance contrast variations) were subsequently computed. In addition, absolute reflection coefficients were calculated to obtain indications on melt fraction evolution through time.

Preliminary analysis of time-lapse signals reveals inflation and deflation of the magma lens before and after eruptions on the scale of a few meters up to ~15 m. In comparison with 2002, one year after the 2011 eruption, the magma lens has inflated in its portion southeast of the caldera and deflated beneath the 2011 lava flow inside the caldera. Interestingly, the melt percentage has decreased everywhere. Then 4 years after the 2015 eruption, in comparison with 2012, the portion of the magma lens beneath the 2011 lava flow inside the caldera and southeast of the caldera has undergone deflation, whereas the portion beneath the 2015 lava flow inside the caldera has continued to inflate slightly, with melt fraction increasing in both regions. That we observe inflation associated with a decrease in melt fraction (and conversely) suggests that the vertical uplift of the top of the magma reservoir occurs with a temporal lag relative to melt migration along the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary into the shallow part of the reservoir.

In this contribution, we will present the details of our time-lapse methodology and insights gained about magma dynamics at Axial Volcano using our methodology.  

How to cite: Zhao, Y., Carton, H., Singh, S., Ardalan, M., and kent, G.: Dynamics of magma reservoir before and after volcanic eruptions at the Axial Volcano in the Eastern Pacific using time-lapse seismic imaging method, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13399, 2026.

Campi Flegrei caldera (Naples, Italy) is one of the most active volcanic systems worldwide, continuously monitored by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Osservatorio Vesuviano (INGV-OV). Intense hydrothermal activity, recurrent seismicity and significant episodes of ground uplift (bradyseism) peaking at the caldera centre over the last decades have been related to the dynamics of a complex magmatic-hydrothermal system. Previous studies indicate active fluid migration through the Solfatara-Pisciarelli hydrothermal system, as well as strong small-scale heterogeneities and gas accumulation and release in this area. In this work, we produced a time-dependent Rayleigh-wave tomography model of Campi Flegrei caldera using the Python Package SeisLib. We applied the method to three years of ambient noise data (from January 2022 to December 2024). This period corresponds to the most significant seismic unrest of the last 40 years, with a total of 37 seismic events with duration magnitude Md≥3.0 and a maximum magnitude of Md=4.4 on May 20, 2024. We used records of 18 seismic stations of the INGV-OV network, 17 from the IV network and 1 (CFB3) from the Medusa network. We processed the continuous seismic records using a standard ambient-noise processing workflow, including the removal of transient seismic swarms and band-pass filtering. Data were then resampled and cross-correlated for all available station pairs, knowing that cross-correlation of seismic ambient noise can be related to the surface-wave Green function between two points of observation. From these, we extracted Rayleigh-wave dispersion curves in order to produce phase-velocity maps at 0.25 Hz, 0.50 Hz, 0.75 Hz, 1.0 Hz, 1.25 Hz and 1.50 Hz. Here, we focused on the three highest frequencies (1.0 Hz, 1.25 Hz and 1.50 Hz), which provide the best resolution in the shallowest portion of the caldera. Inversions for Rayleigh-wave phase velocities reveal high-velocity anomalies in the Solfatara-Pisciarelli area, with values ∼100 m/s above average velocities, and sensitivity extending to a few hundred meters of depth. These velocities are consistent with the presence, below the Solfatara-Pisciarelli region, of a shallow hydrothermal system comprising an aquifer and shallow faults. The spatial distribution of the anomalies is also qualitatively consistent with geophysical models indicating the presence of a clay cap atop a highly resistive plume, constrained by faults, that feeds the fumaroles on the surface. High-frequency Rayleigh-wave phase velocities, obtained from the inversion, are also consistent with the presence of an elongated shallow zone of high rigidity. This transfer structure, formed by lateral stress accumulation in the crust, crosses the resistive plume that stores steam and gas beneath the Solfatara-Pisciarelli system. The results are also consistent with the interpretation that shallow faults in the Solfatara-Pisciarelli area act as preferential conduits for ascending gases and hydrothermal fluids.

How to cite: Di Dato, C., Tramelli, A., and De Siena, L.: Ambient Noise Tomography of Campi Flegrei caldera (Naples, Italy): High Frequency Phase-Velocity Anomalies beneath the Solfatara-Pisciarelli Hydrothermal System, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13821, 2026.

Plume-lithosphere interaction (PLI) is a fundamental geodynamic process linking deep mantle dynamics to surface volcanism and lithospheric evolution. The lithosphere serves as an archive of past modifications, where distinct tectonic settings undergo unique deformation histories that are manifested as variations in thickness and seismic velocity. To characterize the nature and variability of different PLI modes, we conduct a comparative study across three tectonic settings: Iceland (ridge-centered hotspot), Hawaii (oceanic intraplate hotspot), and Hainan Island (continental margin upwelling). Utilizing Ps and Sp receiver functions, we image crustal and upper-mantle discontinuities in each tectonic setting. By integrating Vp/Vs ratios with seismic velocity anomalies, we further constrain the distribution of potential melt within the lithosphere. This study tests the hypothesis that contrasting lithospheric structures arise from different PLI modes, which in turn regulate the ascent, emplacement, and storage of magma. This study aims to provide seismological constraints on the evolution of PLI, potentially offering new insights into the genesis of surface volcanism. The detailed results and ongoing progress will be presented at the meeting.

How to cite: Zhang, Z., Deng, Y., and Zhu, S.: Plume-Lithosphere Interaction Across Different Hotspots: A Comparative Study of Iceland, Hawaii, and Hainan Island, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15569, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15569, 2026.

EGU26-15618 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.6

A Vertically Connected Melt-Fluid-Rich Magma System Beneath the Tengchong Volcanic Field 

Yuqi Huang, HaiJiang Zhang, Junjie Hao, Ying Liu, and Max Moorkamp

        The growth of the Tibetan Plateau is resulted from the ongoing collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates since the Cenozoic. The western Yunnan region is located on the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and represents an important tectonic transition zone, characterized by outward material flow from the Tibetan Plateau, interactions among multiple tectonic blocks, and complex crust-mantle coupling processes. The Tengchong Volcanic Field (TCV), situated in western Yunnan, is the largest active volcanic field in China and is characterized by intense hydrothermal activity and frequent seismicity. Multiple geophysical observations indicate that low seismic velocities and low electrical resistivity at different depths in the crust beneath the TCV, which are commonly interpreted as the existence of magma chambers. However, how mantle-derived materials are transported upward and continuously supply the crustal magma system, as well as the specific pathways and dynamic mechanisms involved, remain poorly understood. Therefore, the crustal and uppermost mantle structure of the Tengchong magma system warrants further study.

          In this study, we develop a new joint inversion method that combines body-wave and surface-wave data. Using the chain rule, the sensitivity kernels of S-wave travel times and surface-wave dispersion with respect to Vs are transformed into sensitivity kernels for Vp and Vp/Vs, and S-P travel-time data are incorporated to further enhance constraints on the Vp/Vs structure. In addition, the variation of information constraint is introduced to strengthen the intrinsic coupling between the Vp and Vp/Vs models, and the objective function is efficiently solved using the L-BFGS optimization algorithm. Based on this approach, we obtain high-resolution three-dimensional Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs models beneath the TCV. The results reveal a spatially continuous low-Vs and high-Vp/Vs anomaly in the lower crust beneath the TCV, which extends upward from the lower crust and closely corresponds to the shallow seismicity and the location of the volcanic centers, indicating the presence of partially molten or fluid-rich materials. An overlying high-velocity layer above the lower-crustal low-velocity anomaly reflects relatively dense and mechanically strong middle-crustal material, which exerts mechanical sealing and lateral confinement on the underlying partially molten or fluid-rich zone. This structure effectively controls the ascent pathways of magma and the spatial distribution of shallow seismicity. Our results suggest that the Tengchong volcanic system is not controlled by an isolated shallow magma chamber but is instead governed by a vertically connected magma system dominated by a deep-seated weak zone or a melt-fluid-rich conduit.

How to cite: Huang, Y., Zhang, H., Hao, J., Liu, Y., and Moorkamp, M.: A Vertically Connected Melt-Fluid-Rich Magma System Beneath the Tengchong Volcanic Field, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15618, 2026.

The dynamic processes of magma replenishment and eruption of an active volcano are key to understanding the magma plumbing system and the mechanism of magma movement. Myriad studies focus on the long-term processes of melt accumulation and migration before the eruption, the transient and massive outflow and influx of magma during the eruption, and the associated mixing processes of melt and crystal mush are poorly resolved so far. Capturing the transient magma movement at depth is an important yet challenging task, for it can provide direct evidence of such a magmatic process. Shear-wave velocity is sensitive to the melt content and melt connectivity, therefore the velocity variation is a good proxy for detecting the interaction between fresh melts with the existing crystal mush.

            Axial Seamount (AS), located in the intersection of the Juan de Fuca ridge and the Cobb hotspot, is an active submarine volcano and has erupted in 1998, 2011, and 2015 in the past three decades. Significant effort has been made to use the ambient noise for continuous monitoring of magmatism at Axial Seamount. Unfortunately, none of the results so far can capture the change inside the reservoir during the eruption, either due to the lack of data or the lack of spatial sensitivity to the magma reservoir.

            Since 2014, the Ocean Observatory Institute (OOI) has running 7 cabled permanent ocean bottom seismometers around the caldera and a satellite seismometer approximately 25 km to the southeast, providing a great chance to resolve the magma movement inside the magma reservoir during the 2015 eruption. In this study, to investigate the magma movement inside the reservoir during the eruption, we calculated the empirical Green’s function along the long paths between satellite station AXBA1 and the caldera array and successfully extracted Rayleigh waves at periods of 4-6 s (0.16 – 0.25 Hz), which are most sensitive to the velocity in the depth range of the major magma reservoir (MMR) from 1.5-2.5 km. Given that a considerable portion of the paths lies outside the caldera region, the predominant velocity variation originating from the caldera area could be as large as 4%. The velocity decrease, which is significant enough (> 2sigma) from the background seasonal variation, occurred in a consequential manner from the central to the southwestern magma reservoir. We propose that the rapid influx of melt after the 2015 eruption caused a strong mixing of the fresh melt with the crystal mush in a time period of a few months, presenting a very different way of replenishment than the long-term trend.

How to cite: Ruan, Y.: Seismic observation of magma mixing inside the magma reservoir after the 2015 eruption of Axial Seamount, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16018, 2026.

EGU26-16965 | ECS | Orals | SM6.6

Crustal and Upper Mantle Architecture Beneath Vesuvius Revealed by Receiver Functions 

Víctor Ortega-Ramos, Luca D'Auria, Jose Luis Granja-Bruña, Iván Cabrera-Pérez, Vittorio Zanon, and Nemesio M. Pérez

Understanding volcanic systems requires the integration of multiple disciplines. Among them, the integration of seismology and petrology is advantageous. In this study, we investigate the crustal and upper-mantle structure beneath Mount Vesuvius using the Receiver Function (RF) technique. The Somma–Vesuvius volcanic complex has experienced both effusive and explosive eruptions over the past ~25 Ma. Because of the dense population surrounding the volcano, it is among the highest-risk volcanoes in Europe, making a detailed imaging of its internal structure essential for risk mitigation.

Receiver Functions are particularly sensitive to seismic velocity contrasts, allowing the identification of major discontinuities and providing constraints on P- and S-wave velocity variations at depth. Building on previous geophysical studies, our work integrates petrological constraints to improve the interpretation of seismic velocity anomalies and their relationship with the magmatic system beneath Vesuvius. This combined approach allows us to link observed seismic features with the physical state of magmatic reservoirs.

We analyzed seismic data from fourteen stations distributed around the volcanic edifice. RFs were computed using a multi-taper deconvolution technique to enhance signal stability. Subsequently, we applied the transdimensional Bayesian inversion method to retrieve probabilistic 1D velocity models and identify the most likely depths of seismic discontinuities. The integration of geophysics with petrological modeling was used to estimate melt fractions associated with the detected low-velocity zones.

Our preliminary results enabled us to correlate the various discontinuities with the stations we deployed around Vesuvius. We have observed at least three distinct layers, separated by discontinuities with marked changes in the Vs. These preliminary results highlight the effectiveness of combining seismic and petrological analyses to constrain the geometry and physical properties of the Vesuvius magmatic system. The identified velocity anomalies shed light on the interaction between crustal and upper-mantle structures and magmatic processes. These findings provide valuable information for ongoing volcanic monitoring and contribute to improving hazard assessment strategies for the Vesuvius area.

How to cite: Ortega-Ramos, V., D'Auria, L., Granja-Bruña, J. L., Cabrera-Pérez, I., Zanon, V., and Pérez, N. M.: Crustal and Upper Mantle Architecture Beneath Vesuvius Revealed by Receiver Functions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16965, 2026.

How structural elements govern magmatic differentiation in the crust remains unclear, particularly in volcanic systems that exhibit substantial lithological diversity. The Taupō Volcanic Zone of New Zealand represents a premier example of such complexity, as it displays pronounced spatial and temporal transitions between andesitic and silicic volcanism. However, a high-resolution seismic framework for its magmatic plumbing system remains elusive, hindering a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms driving these petrological shifts. Here, we examine crustal velocity structures beneath the Taupō Volcanic Zone by employing a new adjoint-state differential traveltime tomography method and an extensive dataset comprising traveltime picks accumulated over the past 40 years. Our final velocity model reveals the fundamental role of an intact and impermeable upper crustal lid in controlling the vertical distribution and maturation of magma in the crust. The mechanical state of this lid effectively dictates the storage levels of less-evolved melts, whereas its structural degradation due to extension and thermal erosion facilitates magma ascent and the subsequent development of more differentiated, shallow reservoirs. These findings provide a plausible framework for understanding the transition between different magmatic styles and offer new insights into the mechanisms driving the spatial and temporal evolution of arc and rift systems globally.

How to cite: Wu, S.: Crustal magma plumbing system beneath the Taupō Volcanic Zone of New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17891, 2026.

EGU26-19198 | ECS | Posters on site | SM6.6

Investigating Northern Ninety East Ridge (NER) using high-resolution Multichannel Seismic Reflection Data 

Prabhakar Kumar, Dibakar Ghosal, Satish Singh, Hélène Carton, and Nugroho Hananto

The Ninety East Ridge (NER) is a prominent linear intraplate volcanic ridge in the eastern Indian Ocean. Seismicity has long been recognized to occur along it in the context of the Indian Ocean intraplate deformation zone. At the latitude of northern Sumatra, the NER hosted moment release during the great Mw 8.6 Wharton Basin earthquake rupture, and several aftershocks with dominantly strike-slip mechanisms. However, its crustal architecture in that area, especially the extent of active faults at depth, is poorly known owing to a scarcity of active-source seismic data. In this study, we utilize a two-dimensional marine multichannel seismic (MCS) dataset acquired by the R/V Marion Dufresne (MIRAGE experiment) in the region of the 2012 rupture zone over northern NER (1.5-3N). An airgun source of 2750 in3 volume was fired at 50 m interval, and a streamer equipped with 720 hydrophone groups spaced at 6.25 m interval was used to record seismic data. We processed the MCS data using a conventional marine seismic processing workflow using successively a band-pass filter, an FK filter for coherent linear noise attenuation, several passes of velocity analyses, normal move-out correction, stacking, and finally post-stack time migration. We focus here on a 176-km long profile oriented N-S direction, along which the water depth varies between ~ 2 km in the north and 3 km in the south. The preliminary interpretation of the migrated image reveals several structural features indicating active deformation and segmentation along the profile. We find a veneer (200-300 m thick) of pelagic sediments underlain by 300-500 m thick volcanoclastic deposits over the acoustic basement. In the crust below the top of basement, we observed a low-frequency event, which could be due to the Layer 2A/2B boundary. The seafloor and sediments show signs of active deformation, possibly associated with NW-SE trending fault planes of strike-slip earthquakes. The presence of a couple of negative flower structures further supports strike-slip deformation on the NER. In this presentation, we will present results linking seismic reflection images with drilling results (DSDP Hole 216) and earthquakes on the NER to shed light on active deformation along the NER in this region.

How to cite: Kumar, P., Ghosal, D., Singh, S., Carton, H., and Hananto, N.: Investigating Northern Ninety East Ridge (NER) using high-resolution Multichannel Seismic Reflection Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19198, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19198, 2026.

SM7 – Crustal Fluids and Seismicity (incl. induced & triggered seismicity, volcano seismology

A portion of the central segment of the Himalayan orogen was partially ruptured across ~150 km during the 2015 Mw 7.9 Gorkha earthquake, which caused an overwhelming fatality of ~9000 lives. Study of the immediate aftershocks reported an eastward migration of the seismic front. Whereas, spatial average provided hints at fluid migration along the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) owing to the presence of a prominent low-velocity layer at MHT with fluctuating anisotropic directions. In this study, we employ the local and teleseismic earthquakes recorded at the year-long (2015-2016) deployment of seismic stations at the NAMASTE (Nepal Array Measuring Aftershock Seismicity Trailing Earthquake) network to investigate the temporal evolution of the aftershock sequence. The seismic front is observed to migrate eastwards immediately after the mainshock as reported, but analysis of the prolonged activity over the year reveals that the locus of seismicity migrates back from east to west towards the mainshock hypocenter. Shear wave splitting measurements extracted from local earthquakes indicate E-W realignment of the fast polarization direction of the aftershocks, as opposed to the initial NNW-SSE direction of the mainshock. A prominent low-velocity layer, discerned from receiver functions computed using teleseismic earthquakes, is observed to migrate along the rupture zone of the aftershock sequence. The changing direction of fluid migration along the low-velocity rupture zone at MHT could possibly be inciting the oscillation of anisotropic characteristic of the crust as the aftershock sequence evolves. We intend to further investigate and validate the observations through finite element modelling to constrain the variability of stress redistribution following a major earthquake, and gain insights on evolution of earthquake cycles in an orogenic setting.

How to cite: Uthaman, M. and Jana, N.: Evolution of the 2015 Mw 7.9 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal Himalaya: Insights from local and teleseismic earthquake analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-826, 2026.

EGU26-2207 | Orals | SM7.1

Interaction between Fluids and Faults Based on Seismicity: Case Studies in Western Yunnan, China 

Hongyi Li, Min Liu, Zeyu Ma, Yen Joe Tan, and Miao Zhang

Due to the collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates and the southeastward compression of the Tibetan Plateau, western Yunnan is one of the regions in China with the most active seismic and volcanic activities as well as the most complex fault structures. We first built a deep-learning-based high-precision earthquake catalog for the Tengchong volcanic field over the past decade and found that 1) ∼59% of the seismicity occurred as swarms but on faults aligned with the regional tectonic stress field; 2) all swarms contained fluid-diffusion-like migration fronts; and 3) a year-long swarm, including two ML 5.2 earthquakes within two months, revealed complex fluid-fault interaction. Combined with the historical occurrences of M >6 earthquake swarms around the Tengchong volcanic field, our observations suggest potential increased likelihood of swarms with large-magnitude earthquakes where large tectonic faults and magmatic systems intersect.

With the aid of machine-learning-based detection, we then outlined a complex 3D fault zone accommodating a small earthquake swarm near Yunlong city, western Yunnan, China from February to May 2013. Our results showed that the swarm initiated from a compressive stepover zone and subsequently activated a complex fault zone including six planar fault segments. The migration front of the swarm can be well-modeled by fluid diffusion, indicating the swarm was primarily driven by pressurized fluid. Within the stepover zone, complex and dense fractures act as conduits connecting the reservoir and fault zone, facilitating fluid flow. Meanwhile, the stress in the stepover zone tends to increase in response to the compression of the two boundary faults, which not only makes the stepover zone more susceptible to be triggered by those transient stresses but also forms a fluid pumping mechanism that drives fluids from the stepover zone into the complex fault zone.

By integrating a deep-learning-based phase picker and an improved match-and-locate algorithm, we constructed a high -precision foreshock catalogue for the 2021 Yangbi earthquake. Meanwhile, a high-resolution earthquake source region velocity structure for the 2021 Yangbi sequence was also inverted in our study. Our results suggest that natural fluid diffusion is likely a driver of the Yangbi foreshock sequence based on three lines of evidence: 1) regions with low Vs and relatively high Vp/Vs are widespread within the fault system; 2) earliest foreshocks exhibit diffusion-like migration front, and 3) foreshock evolution coincides with typical fault valving behavior, and a few low-frequency signals whose distribution coincides with high Vp/Vs patches was clearly identified, strongly suggesting that fluid diffusion influenced nucleation.

Therefore, we propose that the interaction between the widely distributed fluids and faults in western Yunnan may play a crucial role in the seismic activity.

How to cite: Li, H., Liu, M., Ma, Z., Tan, Y. J., and Zhang, M.: Interaction between Fluids and Faults Based on Seismicity: Case Studies in Western Yunnan, China, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2207, 2026.

EGU26-2824 | ECS | Posters on site | SM7.1

Microseismicity swarm activity in the East Eifel Volcanic Field - A response to magmatic processes? 

Gesa Petersen, Patrick Laumann, Marius Isken, Torsten Dahm, Zhiguo Deng, Heiko Woith, Christian Voigt, Martin Zimmer, Martin Hensch, Martin Zeckra, Bernd Schmidt, and Hao Zhang

The East Eifel Volcanic Field (EEVF) in Germany is a densely monitored yet dormant distributed volcanic field comprising hundreds of Quaternary volcanoes, including the most recent eruption of the Laacher See Volcano ~13,000 years ago. The GFZ's Central European Volcanic Province Observatory (CVO) integrates data delivered by multiple partners: Seismic data, GNSS, a superconducting gravimeter, and fluid monitoring sites to detect subtle signals of volcanic and tectonic activity. This study focuses on microseismic swarms observed within the EEVF since January 2020. We present a multidisciplinary analysis of selected swarm sequences, with particular emphasis on their spatial proximity to recently mapped crystal velocity anomalies, interpreted as potential melt reservoirs. Notably, the suspected locations of partial melt reservoirs beneath the EEVF correlate well with the location of the DLF earthquakes. Most recently, a swarm of approximately 120 locatable events (Mw < 1.6) occurred near the Laacher See Volcano in October 2025, prompting considerable public and media interest. Preliminary moment tensor inversion and cross-correlation-based clustering indicate a highly self-similar sequence with oblique normal faulting to strike-slip faulting mechanisms in agreement with the regional stress field. Although the EEVF is not typically characterized by extensive swarm activity, our analysis reveals tens of tiny swarm sequences over the past six years. The Oct-2025 swarm illustrated the feasibility of a quick, multidisciplinary assessment of the EEVF; during this swarm, no co-seismic changes in ground deformation, fluid properties, or gravity were detected. In our ongoing work, we explore several hypotheses linking the microseismic swarms to fluid-driven processes near potential melt reservoirs.

How to cite: Petersen, G., Laumann, P., Isken, M., Dahm, T., Deng, Z., Woith, H., Voigt, C., Zimmer, M., Hensch, M., Zeckra, M., Schmidt, B., and Zhang, H.: Microseismicity swarm activity in the East Eifel Volcanic Field - A response to magmatic processes?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2824, 2026.

EGU26-6631 | Posters on site | SM7.1

Detecting and characterizing swarm-like seismicity 

Luigi Passarelli, Gesa Petersen, Leila Mizrahi, and Simone Cesca

Tectonic earthquake swarms deviate significantly from the spatio-temporal evolution characteristic of mainshock-aftershock sequences. While earthquake sequences often begin with a dominant event called a mainshock, followed by a decaying rate of aftershocks governed by the Omori-Utsu law, earthquake swarms are defined by a gradual escalation of seismic activity lacking a singular, triggering large earthquake at the start of the cluster. In these sequences, peak magnitudes often emerge mid-sequence or later, frequently accompanied by distinct spatial migration and episodic bursts. This complex clustering evolution is driven by the interaction between steady tectonic loading and transient, short-term forcing mechanisms. Identifying these phenomena requires robust, unsupervised methodologies—a need that has spurred the development of various detection algorithms over recent decades.

This research provides a systematic evaluation of prevalent cluster-detection techniques and sequence characterization via the release of seismic moment over time. We apply four well-known (de-)clustering algorithms to identify clusters in space-time-magnitude space; subsequently, we evaluate each cluster using the statistical moment of the cluster source time function (i.e., the release of seismic moment over time). By utilizing thousands of synthetic catalogs generated through Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) modeling with time-varying background rates, we simulate realistic swarm behavior to test these tools. This synthetic framework allows us to define parametric boundaries that robustly differentiate swarms from mainshock-aftershock clusters. We then validate our findings against well-documented real-world datasets, including the 2010–2014 Pollino sequence and the Húsavík-Flatey transform fault in Northern Iceland. Additionally, show that the cluster classification to distinguish swarms from mainshock-aftershock sequences via the proposed statistics depends on the type of (de-)clustering algorithm used and, most importantly, on the cluster duration.  Accordingly, our results highlight that real-world application remains sensitive to algorithm choice and catalog completeness, suggesting that human oversight is still essential for precise swarm characterization and interpretation.

How to cite: Passarelli, L., Petersen, G., Mizrahi, L., and Cesca, S.: Detecting and characterizing swarm-like seismicity, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6631, 2026.

Intraplate earthquakes occurring in the Korean Peninsula provide an important opportunity to investigate how pre-existing faults respond to the current background stress field in a low-seismicity region. This study shows that earthquakes often form sparse and linear clusters, suggesting a potential link between observed seismicity and pre-existing tectonic boudaries in the southern Korean Peninsula. Based on the 2024 ML4.8 Buan earthquake sequence, this study extends the analysis to multiple linear earthquake clusters distributed across the southwestern Korean Peninsula. Using high-resolution earthquake catalogs via deep learning methods, waveform-based clustering, focal mechanism analyses, and rate-and-state friction (RSF) simulations, we examined the conditions under which these linear clusters become seismically active. The combined analyses highlight the roles of fault orientation, fault interaction, regional stress conditions, and frictional properties in controlling intraplate seismicity. Preliminary results indicate that faults favorably oriented with respect to the regional stress field are more likely to rupture, whereas unfavorably oriented faults may require additional factors (e.g., fault complexity, significantly reduced frictional conditions) to generate earthquakes. By extending RSF-based fault stability analyses to the southeastern Korean Peninsula, this study also emphasizes the importance of interactions within discrete fault networks in governing earthquake occurrence in low-strain-rate intraplate settings.

How to cite: Han, J., Kim, S., Heo, D., and Kang, T.-S.: Intraplate Fault Stability Analysis using Rate-and-State Friction Simulation: Case studies on Spatially Aligned Earthquake Clusters in the Southern Korean Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6653, 2026.

EGU26-7435 | ECS | Posters on site | SM7.1

Post- and inter-seismic behavior in the central Queen Charlotte fault: implications for earthquake cycle 

Yingchen Liu, Dietrich Lange, and Ingo Grevemeyer

The ~900 km long Queen Charlotte Fault (QCF), which separates the Pacific and North American plates, is the fastest-slipping oceanic–continental transform fault on Earth. Since the early 20th century, six major earthquakes with moment magnitudes greater than 7.0 have struck along the QCF, posing significant hazard threats to western America and Canada. The most recent event, the 2013 Mw 7.5 Craig earthquake, ruptured the central segment of the QCF and has been proposed as the first reported oceanic interplate earthquake exhibiting supershear rupture (Yue et al., 2013, JGR, 10.1002/2013JB010594), attracting widespread attention within the seismological community. Nevertheless, owing to the lack of long-term near-field monitoring, the seismic behavior of this region remains poorly understood.
In this study, we analyzed data from a dense ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) network (network code YI) deployed along the central QCF from late August 2021 to early September 2022. The network consists of 25 OBS stations with an average spacing of ~15 km, providing an exceptional opportunity to characterize microseismicity along the central QCF. Using PickBlue, a machine-learning–based phase picker trained on OBS data, we constructed a high-resolution seismicity catalog comprising 502 well-located earthquakes with moment magnitudes ranging from 1.0 to 3.3. Our catalog delineates a steeply dipping (75°–80°) subvertical fault plane and reveals distributed seismicity within the Pacific plate, suggesting that transpressive convergence along the central QCF is largely accommodated by slip on the dipping fault plane and by offshore deformation of the Pacific plate.
Furthermore, along the central QCF, a highly segmented seismic behavior was revealed. Two primary earthquake clusters were detected in the southern section near the epicenter of the 2013 Mw 7.5 Craig earthquake, whereas the northern section remains nearly aseismic. The most active cluster was located at the margin of the main coseismic rupture area and coincides with a slightly curved fault segment, which may have decelerated northward rupture propagation during the 2013 Craig earthquake while accommodating most deformation. Further south, in the largest coseismic slip region, an additional cluster is observed within the area of maximum coseismic slip, suggesting progressive stress reloading on the previously ruptured fault plane. To better understand the stress evolution of the 2013 Craig earthquake, we also relocated a 21-day local aftershock catalog recorded ~4 months after the mainshock (Walton et al., 2019, EPSL, 10.1016/j.epsl.2018.11.021). Notably, the spatial distributions of aftershocks and interseismic events display a pronounced complementary pattern in the largest coseismic slip region, with interseismic events distributed at the center of the rupture zone and aftershocks beautifully surrounding it. Together, these observations illuminate the stress evolution of the 2013 Craig earthquake from the postseismic to the interseismic period and provide new insights into understanding the seismic cycle.

How to cite: Liu, Y., Lange, D., and Grevemeyer, I.: Post- and inter-seismic behavior in the central Queen Charlotte fault: implications for earthquake cycle, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7435, 2026.

EGU26-8019 | Posters on site | SM7.1

Replacing spatial distance with waveform similarity in nearest-neighbour earthquake clustering  

Toni Kraft, Verena Simon, and Tania Toledo

Earthquake clustering methods based on nearest-neighbour distances provide a powerful framework for identifying seismic sequences and distinguishing clustered from background seismicity. Classical formulations rely on spatial proximity and therefore require accurate hypocentral locations, which limits their applicability to single-station template-matched catalogues with only a subset of located earthquakes. Here we introduce a new clustering approach that replaces spatial distance by waveform similarity, quantified through normalised cross-correlation, while retaining the established time–magnitude scaling of nearest-neighbour methods. Waveform similarity is treated as a distance in a feature space, and its effective dimension is estimated directly from the data using a maximum-likelihood intrinsic-dimension estimator. This allows the definition of a similarity-based nearest-neighbour distance with a clear statistical interpretation as the expected number of background events in time–similarity–magnitude space. 

The method is specifically designed for single-station template-matched catalogues, where waveform similarity provides constraints on source proximity and fault association. We test the approach on natural seismic sequences in Switzerland using template-matched catalogues and benchmark the results against clusters obtained from double-difference relocated catalogues. This study aims to assess whether waveform similarity can robustly replace spatial distance in nearest-neighbour clustering while preserving the statistical and physical interpretability of the method, and to evaluate its potential for the analysis of dense template-matched catalogues from sparse or single-station seismic deployments. 

How to cite: Kraft, T., Simon, V., and Toledo, T.: Replacing spatial distance with waveform similarity in nearest-neighbour earthquake clustering , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8019, 2026.

Deep low-frequency earthquakes (DLFs) have been observed at a depth of about 30 km near the Moho around active volcanoes. Source process of DLFs is thought to be related to the deep magma supply system (e.g., Nakamichi et al. 2003) and the number of them sometimes increase several months before an eruption. Therefore, DLFs is a key information for understanding the magma supply process from deep to shallow (e.g., Shapiro et al. 2017). The Iwate volcano, which located in Northeastern part of Japan, has experienced a volcanic unrest such as abnormal crustal deformation and increase of seismicity including DLFs since February 2024. In this study, we investigated the seismicity and focal mechanisms of DLFs in the Iwate volcano based on the matched filter method (e.g., Gibons and Ringdal, 2006) and waveform inversion.

We performed matched filter analysis for the period from January 2019 to December 2025. We used 175 template events relocated by Kurihara and Obara, (2021). This analysis detected approximately 8000 events over a 6-year period. The Iwate volcano has three DLF clusters: 10 km depth just beneath the volcano, 30 km depth of northern and southern parts of it. Among them, seismicity of DLFs in the north cluster has extremely increased since August 2024 and the number of them has also increased in the shallow cluster since three months after the activation of northern cluster. This result suggests the possibility that magma supply from deep to shallow areas has continued.

Then, we estimated source time functions and moment tensor components for template events based on the procedure of Aso and Ide (2014). Obtained moment tensors have various orientations and significant compensated linear vector dipole component, which is consistent with the previous study of DLFs in the Iwate volcano (Nakamichi et al. 2003). However, comparing focal mechanisms and seismicity, we found that DLF activity is mainly composed of events detected from specific templates. This result suggests the existence of a dominant local stress field such as the shape of stagnated magma near the Moho. As a preliminary interpretation, activation of DLFs can be caused by the volumetric deformation associated with intrusion into the magma.

How to cite: Oikawa, G.: Seismicity and focal mechanisms of deep low-frequency earthquakes in the Iwate Volcano, Northeast Japan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8624, 2026.

We have investigated the spatial and temporal variations in stress drop during a series of earthquakes, from the swarm to the early aftershocks in the Noto Peninsula, central Japan. The swarm began in 2018 and lasted more than five years until the devastating 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto earthquake. We estimated stress drop from a comparison between the observed and theoretical Frequency Index (FI). Employing a commonly used source model and the relations between corner frequency and stress drop, the theoretical FI is a function of S-wave velocity, attenuation factor, and stress drop. By assuming a S-wave velocity and using the separately measured attenuation factor, the theoretical FI depends solely on stress drop. We estimate the stress drop that minimizes the difference between the observed and theoretical FI. We validated the method by comparing the obtained stress drop with that from the ordinary method to measure the corner frequency. The result is consistent, though our method gives slightly higher stress drop than a one-to-one relationship. As long as we discuss the relative values of stress drop, this difference has little effect on subsequent observations and interpretations.

We estimated stress drop for 3,490 earthquakes with magnitudes from 1.5 to 4.0. The obtained stress drop shows an apparent spatial variation: Low-Stress-Drop Events (LSDEs) are dominant in the southern part of the swarm area, whereas both LSDEs and High-Stress-Drop Events (HSDEs) coexist in the northern part. Previous studies classified the swarm area into four subareas of S (southeast), W (southwest), N (northwest), and E (northeast). The swarm areas temporarily expanded, including subareas in this order. Our results show that earthquakes in the S subarea, where the swarm started, mostly have low stress drop. Some events with extremely low stress drop exhibit a unique waveform with a low-frequency band and a decaying amplitude over time, resembling volcanic low-frequency earthquakes. Previous studies have suggested that crustal fluids contribute to seismogenesis in the area. Our results give further and strong support for this suggestion. HSDEs mainly occurred in subarea N, with the highest seismicity, and in subarea E, which hosted many large swarm earthquakes. They are located sandwiched between and around the band of LSDEs. During the early aftershock stage, HSDEs are absent in these locations. The rupture of the mainshock originated in these subareas and was "quiet," with only minor moment release. Previous studies suggested that these subareas experienced strain release preceding the mainshock due to the swarm. The spatio-temporal variation of HSDEs is consistent with the interpretation. On the other hand, LSDEs in subarea S occurred during both the swarm and the aftershock sequences, implying continuous fluid supply from the anticipated fluid source beneath the swarm area. Our method of stress drop estimation does not aim for high accuracy, but rather to obtain estimates for many earthquakes with acceptable accuracy. The results of this study indicate that the approach works well to investigate the seismogenesis of complex earthquake sequences.

How to cite: Kosuga, M. and Maeda, T.:  Spatio-temporal evolution in stress drop during earthquake sequences from the swarm to aftershocks in the Noto Peninsula, central Japan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8786, 2026.

EGU26-10113 | Orals | SM7.1

Spatiotemporal patterns and nucleation of the 2020 Haenam earthquake sequence in the southwestern Korean Peninsula 

Bohyun Kim, Yoontaek Hong, Gunwoo Kim, and Dong-Hoon Sheen

In 2020, an earthquake sequence occurred in the Haenam area of the southwestern Korean Peninsula, where 74 cataloged earthquakes were recorded within two weeks (26 April–8 May 2020). The activity was concentrated at ~20 km depth, where seismicity is relatively uncommon on the Korean Peninsula, and it comprised an unusually persistent sequence with dozens to thousands of events occurring over the two-week period. In addition, the largest event (MW 3.2) occurred about one week after the first cataloged event rather than at the onset of the sequence. Previous studies reported that hundreds of additional microearthquakes occurred during the same period, and some interpreted the activity as a swarm, citing the lack of a clear mainshock–aftershock decay, distributed seismicity, and hypocentral migration consistent with fluid diffusion. Here, we focus on a spatiotemporal analysis of the Haenam sequence. To ensure catalog completeness, we applied an improved template matching technique, resulting in an enhanced dataset of 1,345 events. We performed precise relocation and magnitude calibration for a subset of well-recorded events. To place the catalog on a consistent magnitude scale, we estimated magnitudes for the remaining events from S-wave peak amplitude ratios using relative-magnitude scaling. Relocated hypocenters define an E–W striking plane (strike ~92°, dip ~62°) consistent with strike-slip faulting. Spatiotemporal clustering identifies five distinct clusters. Within each cluster, seismicity is largely confined to the estimated rupture radius of the largest event in each cluster, consistent with aftershock-like behavior. Successive clusters preferentially initiate near the edge of the preceding rupture area, suggesting cascade-like triggering. We further observed a brief deepening of seismicity to 21.3–21.5 km only immediately after the mainshock (MW 3.2), implying a transient downward extension of the effective lower cutoff of seismicity in the lower crust. Using magnitudes on a consistent MW scale, the enhanced catalog yields a b-value of 1.05 ± 0.03. We also estimated seismic moments from MW using the moment–magnitude relation and found that the largest earthquake accounts for ~39.4% of the total seismic moment released, indicating a mainshock-dominated sequence. Our results demonstrate how high-resolution spatiotemporal analyses and magnitude calibration can clarify the geometry, clustering, and nucleation of small intraplate sequences on the Korean Peninsula.

How to cite: Kim, B., Hong, Y., Kim, G., and Sheen, D.-H.: Spatiotemporal patterns and nucleation of the 2020 Haenam earthquake sequence in the southwestern Korean Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10113, 2026.

Klyuchevskoy Volcanic Group (KVG) is one of the World’s largest and most active clusters of subduction-zone volcanoes and hosts a large and very active trans-crustal magmatic system. In this study, we applied machine-learning–based detection to the data of the KISS temporary seismic experiment operated in 2015-2016 in order to obtain a detailed catalog of earthquakes associated with the KVG volcano-magmatic activity. Our approach resulted in more than 11,000 detections, approximately ten times more than the previous catalog based on manual picking.

The detected seismic activity is clustered in time and space with many earthquakes occurring in spatially localized swarms. Three main earthquakes clusters are clearly associated with major active volcanoes: Klyuchevskoy, Tolbachik, and Ushkovsky. We automatically classified earthquakes into volcano-tectonic (VT) and long-period (LP) events based on differences in their frequency content. All three clusters mentioned above are dominated by LP events. The largest cluster beneath Klyuchevskoy corresponds to the well-known KVG deep long-period (DLP) seismic activity. It is located at approximately 30 km below the surface (i.e., at the crust-mantle boundary) and contains more than 4,000 events that are strongly clustered in time. Two largest DLP bursts precede the re-activation of Klychevskoy in January 2016 and its eruption in April 2016. Two smaller clusters beneath Tolbachik, and Ushkovsky contain earthquakes located in the crust above 20 km depth. 

We also computed the frequency–magnitude distributions for each of these volcanic LP earthquake clusters and found that they differ from the Gutenberg–Richter power law typical for regular tectonic earthquakes. Volcanic LP earthquakes are deficient in larger-magnitude events and exhibit a much steeper decay in their magnitude distributions. These deviations likely reflect differences in source processes and mechanisms between volcanic and tectonic earthquakes.

We also compared our results with the previously established catalog of seismo-volcanic tremors and found that detections of earthquakes and tremors at first order are anti-correlated in time. Therefore, we suggest that a complete characterization of seismic response to re-activation of a trans-crustal magmatic system requires simultaneous analysis of “discrete” earthquakes and “continuous” tremors with the former providing a very detailed illumination during periods of “quiescence” and the latter containing the information during the periods of significant activity within the plumbing system.

Overall, our study demonstrates the potential of AI-based workflows to efficiently process seismic records from dense seismo-volcanic networks recording simultaneously occurring various types of seismo-volcanic events.

How to cite: Lu, W., Shapiro, N. M., and Münchmeyer, J.: Dense Array and Machine Learning Reveal Detailed Relationship between Seismicity and Volcano Magmatic Activity beneath Klyuchevskoy Volcanic Group, Kamchatka, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10327, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10327, 2026.

EGU26-13258 | Orals | SM7.1

Deciphering the complex spatiotemporal evolution of the 2025 Santorini - Amorgos seismic sequence 

Georgios Michas, Vassilis K. Karastathis, Evangelos Mouzakiotis, Fevronia Gkika, Eleni Daskalaki, and Konstantinos Chousianitis

At the end of January 2025 a unique seismic sequence, in terms of intensity and earthquake magnitudes, started to evolve in the offsore area between Santorini and Amorgos. At the same time, GNSS timeseries recorded at Santorini showed the initiation of a rapid surface deformation phase with subsidence motion, precisely succeeding the six-months inflation period in the intra-caldera region of Santorini. Starting from February 1st and for the next 12 days seismicity increased sharply in rates and magnitudes reaching or exceeding 5.0, registering more than 210 events of M≥4.0 in a period of two weeks, more than twice fold the annual rate in the broader area of Greece. Herein, we use a high-resolution relocated catalogue to decipher the complex spatiotemporal evolution of the sequence and the physical process at play. The catalogue consists of more than 22,500 events, including 8,200 events detected by the routine analysis of the National Observatoty of Athens (NOA) complemented by several more obtained with a machine learning detection algorithm. Phase data for all the detected earthquakes were manually picked by the scientific staff of NOA and then processed with NonLinLoc and a local velocity model to obtain initial locations. All events were then relocated using the hypoDD algorithm, further constraining their location solutions. The bulk of relocated seismicity is constrained in an elongated SW-NE zone between Santorini and Amorgos, consistent with regional tectonics, mainly at depths of 5-15 km. The sequence evolved as a swarm displaying some unique migration patterns classified in distinct main phases of onward and backward propagation episodes. Examining more closely the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity indicates a step-like propagation pattern characterized by secondary seismicity fronts trailed by aseismic backfronts. The main propagation front of seismicity is consistent with a model simulating lateral dyke propagation away from an over-pressurized magma chamber, while migration velocities versus duration for the various secondary fronts are comparable to the ones reported in a global dataset of various dyke-induced swarms that we compiled. The b-value spatial variations further indicate distinct high-low zones that can be induced by high differential stresses combined with higher crustal heterogeneities and increased pore-pressures at shallower depths. Overall, the analysis and results integrated with further observations are consistent with a lateral dyke intrusion in the Santorini-Amorgos rift zone facilitated by the regional tectonic fabric and inducing pronounced seismicity, with its finer details elucidating the dyke emplacement process.

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank all the personnel of the Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens and especially the seismic analysis team and the technical staff for their tireless efforts in monitoring and responding to the Santorini - Amorgos seismic crisis.  

How to cite: Michas, G., Karastathis, V. K., Mouzakiotis, E., Gkika, F., Daskalaki, E., and Chousianitis, K.: Deciphering the complex spatiotemporal evolution of the 2025 Santorini - Amorgos seismic sequence, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13258, 2026.

EGU26-14712 | ECS | Posters on site | SM7.1

Seismic Network in the Underexplored Central Iceland (SNUCI): Investigating Local Seismicity in the Langjökull and Hofsjökull volcanic systems  

Hanna-Riia Allas, Jennifer Jenkins, Tom Winder, Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir, Egill Árni Guðnason, Elías Rafn Heimisson, Bryndís Brandsdóttir, and Nick Rawlinson

The SNUCI seismic network was deployed in the Highlands of Central Iceland in July 2024, with the aim of investigating the crustal structure and local seismicity along the E-W aligned plate boundary segment between the Western and Eastern Volcanic rift Zones. The network consists of 15 broadband seismic sensors distributed over an area of ~75x150 km, surrounding the partially subglacial Langjökull and Hofsjökull volcanic systems. Complemented by stations operated by the Icelandic Meteorological Office and the University of Cambridge & University of Iceland, it is the densest local seismic array in the region to date and thus provides the opportunity to significantly improve our knowledge of crustal processes and monitor seismic activity within two large volcanic systems. Whereas the Langjökull system has exhibited sustained levels of seismicity detected by the national seismic monitoring network over the past decades, seismicity within the Hofsjökull system has increased markedly since 2020, prompting enhanced monitoring in the region.  

Here we present the seismic catalogue from the first year of the SNUCI deployment. Automated event detection, relative relocation and clustering analysis are applied to provide a detailed description of the seismicity distribution and event characteristics in different earthquake clusters. Source mechanisms for the highest-magnitude events are constrained by P-wave first-motion polarity inversion. The catalogue shows persistent seismicity both within and outside of the known volcanic systems. While most activity is concentrated in the shallow crust (<15 km), several deep event clusters are identified in the lower crust beneath the Hofsjökull volcanic system, extending down to ~30 km depth. Our new high-resolution dataset can provide novel insights into the ongoing volcano-tectonic processes in this understudied region. 

How to cite: Allas, H.-R., Jenkins, J., Winder, T., Ágústsdóttir, T., Guðnason, E. Á., Heimisson, E. R., Brandsdóttir, B., and Rawlinson, N.: Seismic Network in the Underexplored Central Iceland (SNUCI): Investigating Local Seismicity in the Langjökull and Hofsjökull volcanic systems , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14712, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14712, 2026.

EGU26-15500 | ECS | Posters on site | SM7.1

Deep crustal earthquake swarm and complex seismicity migrations in northern Yamaguchi, southwestern Japan 

Yuta Amezawa, Suguru Yabe, Yasunori Sawaki, Kazutoshi Imanishi, Masatoshi Miyazawa, Tomoaki Nishikawa, Takuya Nishimura, Airi Nagaoka, Rintaro Miyamachi, and Shiro Ohmi

This study focuses on a deep crustal earthquake swarm that has been occurring since February 2025 in northern Yamaguchi, southwestern Japan. The swarm is located at depths of 25–35 km, approximately 20 km deeper than typical earthquake swarms in Japan. Because direct geophysical observations in the lower crust are limited, deep crustal earthquake swarms provide an important observation for investigating seismogenesis in the deep crustal environment.

We performed hypocenter relocation of 3,886 earthquakes with M ≥ 0.0 that occurred between February and June 2025, using initial hypocenters from the Japan Meteorological Agency. The 3,871 relocated hypocenters show two north–south–aligned planar clusters over a spatial scale of ~5 km. The two clusters are separated by a ~1 km-wide low seismicity zone. Within each cluster, hypocenters are heterogeneously distributed, with localized dense and sparse regions.

To grasp the spatiotemporal characteristics in the swarm, we first investigated seismicity migrations along the strike and dip directions of each planar cluster. In both clusters, seismicity exhibits an overall migration from deeper to shallower areas. Along strike, migration is not simple but shows zigzag-like fluctuations, whereas along dip, seismicity typically migrates upward and downward at a rate of ~1 km/day.

Because seismicity migration appears to be active at ~14 days intervals, we qualitatively compared the timing of seismicity migration with tidal normal stress variations on the fitted planes. As a result, we found that periods of large temporal variations in normal stress, particularly between low tides, corresponded to episodes of seismicity migrations.

We further analyzed the multiple seismicity migrations. To evaluate multiple migration episodes, we treated each earthquake as a spatiotemporal origin and analyzed subsequent events within a fixed time window of several days. Almost all of the migration sequences can be explained by an isotropic pore-fluid pressure diffusion model. Estimated diffusivities of diffusive migrations range from 1.0 to 5.0 m2/s, comparable to values reported for volcanic earthquake swarms.

The Moho depth beneath the swarm area is estimated to be ~40 km, indicating that the swarm occurs in the lower crust just above the Moho. The swarm is located just beneath the Abu monogenic volcano group, where petrological studies suggest partial melting of the lower crust. Considering that the most recent eruption occurred ~8,800 years ago, fluids separated from a magma reservoir may persist and migrate upward. The complex deep to shallow seismicity migration, relatively large diffusivities, and tidal modulation suggest that this deep crustal earthquake swarm is driven by highly pressurized, low-viscosity fluids moving through a structurally and hydraulically heterogeneous swarm area in the lower crust, particularly during periods of tidal normal stress variations.

How to cite: Amezawa, Y., Yabe, S., Sawaki, Y., Imanishi, K., Miyazawa, M., Nishikawa, T., Nishimura, T., Nagaoka, A., Miyamachi, R., and Ohmi, S.: Deep crustal earthquake swarm and complex seismicity migrations in northern Yamaguchi, southwestern Japan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15500, 2026.

EGU26-16491 | ECS | Posters on site | SM7.1

Linking Environmental Controls to Seismicity at Ojos del Salado Volcano 

Louisa Murray-Bergquist, Martin Thorwart, Ayon Garcia Pina, Christopher Ulloa Correa, Janneke van Ginkel, and Anouk Beniest

The Ojos del Salado volcano is the highest active volcano in the world, located in the southern Puna Plateau in the high Andes, and at the southern end of the Central Andean Volcanic Zone. Ojos del Salado has erupted in the Holocene and appears to be geothermally active as it is the most likely source of the hot springs that feed into the nearby Laguna Verde. Despite the Ojos del Salado’s size and recent activity, it is not closely monitored and little is known about the current state of this quiet giant. To remedy this, we deployed a passive network of 29 geophones on the flanks of Ojos del Salado and down to the Laguna Verde to record seismic activity at and near the volcano for the month of February, 2024. This data provides insight into the level of seismic activity, and from this we can draw some conclusions about the volcanic activity present at Ojos. We used machine learning techniques to detect events, these were then manually checked and compiled into a SEISAN catalogue. Initially 345 local events and 129 regional events were detected. Taking only events that were recorded on at least eight stations and could be relocated within the network we found that there remained 152 local events within the network. These relocated events formed two main clusters, one on the western flank of the summit and one just north of the summit, between the Laguna Verde and the Ojos del Salado. The magnitude of completeness of this relocated catalogue was -0.3ML, and the local magnitudes ranged from -1ML to 2.8ML. The locations and fault plane solutions of the events at the summit suggest north south extension and generally follow mapped faults in the area, and agree with the main regional stress axes. The smaller cluster just north of the volcano are oriented differently, we suggest that this cluster, which mainly occurred as a swarm on February 8th following two days of heavy rainfall, may be due to stresses caused by an increase in geothermal fluids supplied in part by the heavy rains joining the geothermal system and increasing the local pore pressure. The passive data collection has also allowed us to analyze the continuous seismic signal which shows a periodicity of 12 hours and 24 hours in frequency bands from 1 to 10Hz. This could be an indication of the effect of solid earth tides, temperature, or even rainfall on the seismicity at the Ojos del Salado volcano.

How to cite: Murray-Bergquist, L., Thorwart, M., Garcia Pina, A., Ulloa Correa, C., van Ginkel, J., and Beniest, A.: Linking Environmental Controls to Seismicity at Ojos del Salado Volcano, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16491, 2026.

EGU26-17452 * | Orals | SM7.1 | Highlight

Unveiling the source of seismic swarms with Coulomb stress imaging: application to the 2025 Santorini-Amorgos, Greece seismic crisis 

Stephen Hicks, Anthony Lomax, Vasilis Anagnostou, Eleftheria Papadimitriou, and Vasileios Karakostas

For civil planning and hazard communication purposes, a central challenge during active seismic swarms is identifying the underlying causative source. This task is challenging because geodetic constraints on deformation at depth, especially in marine settings, are limited or poorly resolved. Therefore, it is essential to exploit the high spatial and temporal resolution provided by modern dense seismicity catalogues.

In early 2025, intense swarm seismicity between Santorini and Amorgos in the southern Aegean Sea triggered evacuations and heightened concern over volcanic and seismic hazards. The unrest occurred near the Santorini and Kolumbo volcanoes, and close to the rupture zone of the 1956 Mw 7.7 Amorgos earthquake, making it critical to determine whether the activity was driven by magmatic intrusion or tectonic fault slip.

We analysed ~25,000 earthquakes recorded over eight weeks using high-precision, machine learning–based relocation of seismic data. The resulting catalogue provides a detailed image of the space–time evolution of the swarm, including short-lived episodic tremor bursts. Relocated earthquakes are treated as virtual probes of stress change at depth to image candidate source processes under the assumption of Coulomb failure stress.

The seismicity defines a complex, migrating swarm at ~10 km depth. Dense swarm seismicity initiated northeast of Santorini and rapidly propagated ~20 km further northeast through mid-February, forming a widening, fan-shaped cloud. Coulomb stress imaging indicates horizontal magmatic dike propagation, rather than tectonic fault slip, as the dominant source of unrest. The intrusion is consistent with pump-like magma injections into newly opened dikes at ~12 km depth, producing multiscale, rebounding episodes of dike opening and triggered seismicity.

These results reveal a dynamic, feedback-driven mechanism for dike emplacement and demonstrate the potential of machine learning–enhanced stress imaging for tracking intrusions and improving eruption forecasting.

How to cite: Hicks, S., Lomax, A., Anagnostou, V., Papadimitriou, E., and Karakostas, V.: Unveiling the source of seismic swarms with Coulomb stress imaging: application to the 2025 Santorini-Amorgos, Greece seismic crisis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17452, 2026.

EGU26-17976 | ECS | Orals | SM7.1

Two-stage model of propagation and arrest explains ubiquitous patterns of dyke seismicity  

Tim Davis, Juliet Biggs, and Lin Way

Lateral dyke intrusions are magma-filled fractures that propagate horizontally through the Earth's crust, posing significant hazards to local populations. Since 2020, four major lateral dyking events have forced the evacuation of at least 10,000 people (Bato et al., 2021, Lewi et al., 2025). Although the underlying physical processes are well established, current models are complex, and it is unclear which factors control lateral propagation speed and the movement of magma within the dyke.  

By comparing data from intrusions from around the world, we show that the spatio-temporal patterns of seismicity and ground deformation are ubiquitous, and can be split into two phases:  

Lateral propagation: The seismic events migrate, delineating the location of the lateral dyke tip. The migration speed decays with time and the ground deforms along the entire length of the dyke.  

Widening post-arrest: After the dyke reaches its final lateral extent, it continues to open.  Seismicity propagates back into the previously quiet regions, and the ground deforms at the distal end only. 

We use these observations to motivate a two-stage model of dyke intrusion: lateral propagation followed by widening after arrest. The three-dimensional hydro-mechanical process associated with dyking can be reduced through scale separation to a single Partial Differential Equation (PDE) resembling the classical heat equation (Zia and Lecampion, 2020Nordgren, 1972). Scaling this shows that a dyke fed by a constant pressure source grows as t1/2 while those fed by a constant flux grow as t1/5 (Bunger et al., 2013). By solving the PDE we determine the time-dependent dyke opening distribution and the resulting stress field. We compare predictions of seismicity rates and changing surface deformation to observations from seismology and geodesy. We show that dykes are driven by a near-constant source pressure throughout lateral propagation and that patterns of seismicity and surface deformation are a result of the changing widths of the dyke both during propagation and after arrest. 

Once arrested, changes in the dyke's opening become confined to a zone near the lateral tip, shifting the observed ground deformation towards the distal end. We find static stress changes on faults surrounding the dyke cannot satisfactorily explain the observed spatio-temporal pattern of seismicity.  During rapid stressing, seismicity rates depend on both the magnitude and rate of stress change (Heimisson et al., 2022). The observed spatio-temporal seismicity pattern corresponds well with locations of positive of stress change rates, reflecting the combined influence of deviatoric stressing and early-time poroelastic effects. 

References: 

Bato, M.G. et al. 2021, Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2021GL092803. 

Lewi, E. et al. 2025, Bulletin of Volcanology, doi:10.1007/s00445-025-01852-x. 

Zia, H. & Lecampion, B.2020, Computer Physics Communications, doi:10.1016/j.cpc.2020.107368. 

Nordgren, R.P., 1972, Society of Petroleum Engineers Journal, doi:10.2118/3009-PA. 

Bunger, A.P. et al., 2013, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2013.05.044. 

Heimisson, E.R. et al.2022, Geophysical Journal International, doi:10.1093/gji/ggab467. 

How to cite: Davis, T., Biggs, J., and Way, L.: Two-stage model of propagation and arrest explains ubiquitous patterns of dyke seismicity , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17976, 2026.

Large earthquakes and the subsequent postseismic period are the most dramatic part of the seismic cycle that usually lasts hundreds to thousands of years. However, the fault dynamics which account for the postseismic events are yet to be fully understood. It is well known that aftershock evolutions can reveal the geometry and rupture process of the seismogenic fault. Repeating aftershock, a type of repeating earthquake, is an effective tool for studying the deep fault behavior after strong earthquakes. Here we selected templates from the National Earthquake Data Center catalog between three years before and one year after the mainshock origin time and then used the fast matched filter to detect missing earthquakes. Next we use the seismicity of repeating aftershock sequences (RASs) as a proxy to reveal postseismic slips following the four large earthquakes in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. We find 136 RASs after the Lushan, Jiuzhaigou, and Jinggu mainshocks, whereas only one RAS was detected after the Ludian mainshock that occurred on a conjugate fault. The seismicity shows the aftershock migrated couples of minutes after the mainshocks while the RAS occurred a few hours later. This observation suggests the brittle faulting preceeded to the deep creeps. The deep creeps mainly follow a velocity-strengthening friction mode and decay with an Omori-law p-value of ~1. The results may indicate that the combination of fault healing and geometry together controls the deep fault behaviors. We develop two models to explain the evolution of fault dynamics after large earthquakes. Our results provide new insights into spatiotemporal fault evolutions after large earthquakes.

How to cite: Liu, S., Tang, C.-C., and Shen, X.: Deep postseismic creep following large earthquakes revealed by repeating aftershocks in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18927, 2026.

EGU26-19158 | ECS | Posters on site | SM7.1

Seismic heterogeneity and earthquake clustering in the North-Central Chile subduction zone  

María Constaza Flores, Teresa Peralta, Bertrand Potin, Marie Baillet, David Ambrois, Diane Rivet, and Sergio Ruiz

In subduction zones, seismicity exhibits pronounced space–time heterogeneity that has not been fully explained. While many possible mechanisms, such as frictional heterogeneities, plate geometry, and stress distribution, can lead to contrasting slip behaviors, the precise origin of these slip heterogeneities and their manifestation in space–time distribution of seismicity remain open questions. This is partly due to observational resolution limitations that hinder the detection of fine-scale processes.

For this reason, the north-central zone of Chile is of particular interest: due to the heterogeneities present at the plate interface, associated with the Juan Fernandez Ridge and the Challenger Fracture, where both bathymetric anomalies affect seismic coupling and stress distribution. It is a structurally complex area with abundant seismicity, the occurrence of large interplate earthquakes in recent decades (e.g., the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake and the 1971 Mw 7.8 La Ligua earthquake), and the presence of multiple seismic sequences and persistent seismic activity.

In this study, we conduct a detailed spatiotemporal analysis of seismicity in the North-Central Chile subduction zone, with emphasis on the identification and characterization of seismic clusters using onland seismic time series  from the National Seismological Center (CSN), and from the S5 onland temporary seismic networks , and offshore Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) data , obtained from submarine telecommunications cables (Abyss network), we investigated the nature of these clusters and their possible classification as (foreshock–)mainshock–aftershock sequences, seismic swarms, or repetitive characteristic earthquakes.

By applying deep-learning techniques for seismic phase detection, together with unsupervised learning methods for seismic clustering, we explore the temporal evolution of seismicity and evaluate the existence of unique or recurrent characteristic events through time. Our results aim to elucidate why seismicity in this region is highly heterogeneous and to identify the physical processes that control this variability.

How to cite: Flores, M. C., Peralta, T., Potin, B., Baillet, M., Ambrois, D., Rivet, D., and Ruiz, S.: Seismic heterogeneity and earthquake clustering in the North-Central Chile subduction zone , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19158, 2026.

Machine learning has dramatically expanded earthquake catalogs, but efficiently extracting meaningful patterns from these datasets remains challenging. We present an automated workflow integrating clustering detection, sequence classification, and migration analysis with minimal manual intervention.

Our framework combines two clustering algorithms to identify spatiotemporal earthquake groupings, classifies sequences based on characteristic features, and detects migration patterns.

We apply this workflow to California catalogs (Southern California relocated catalog, Northern California catalog, and QTM template-matching catalog) and Japanese subduction zone catalog based on the S-net seafloor observatory network. Results demonstrate robust identification of diverse sequence types across different tectonic settings and spatial scales. Migration analysis reveals widespread fluid-driven characteristics in California earthquake swarms and potential fluid activity in the forearc region of the Japanese subduction zone.

This automated approach provides consistent, reproducible results while uncovering patterns potentially missed in manual analysis. The workflow enables rapid characterization of seismic sequences, which can improved seismic hazard assessment in tectonically active regions.

How to cite: Cui, X., Li, Z., de Barros, L., and Jean-Paul, A.: Automated Detection, Classification, and Migration Analysis of Earthquake Sequences: Applications to California and Japanese Subduction Zones, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19809, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19809, 2026.

EGU26-20161 | ECS | Posters on site | SM7.1

Resolving the final phase of the 2025 Santorini-Amorgos seismic swarm using a local ocean bottom seismometer array 

Emma Gregory, Gaye Bayrakci, Jean-Baptiste Tary, and Isobel Yeo

The Christiana-Santorini-Kolumbo volcanic field is the most volcanically active segment of the Aegean Arc, encompassing both the large, caldera system of Santorini, and the smaller, highly active submarine volcano Kolumbo to the northeast. In early 2025, the region experienced a strong seismic swarm, with activity concentrated in the Anydros area, between the islands of Santorini and Amorgos. The most widely accepted cause for the swarm so far is a dyke intrusion beneath the Anydros Ridge (e.g. 1, 2).

 

As part of the HYDROMOX project, the RRS Discovery conducted a multidisciplinary research cruise in March 2025, acquiring passive seismic data alongside heat flow measurements, hydrothermal fluid and gas samples, and ROV imagery across Santorini, Kolumbo, and the Anydros Ridge. Here, we present results from a local network of 25 short-period and broadband ocean bottom seismometers (OBS), deployed for approximately three weeks within the Santorini-Amorgos area during the waning phase of the seismic swarm in March 2025. Despite the swarm having peaked prior to deployment, the OBS array recorded over 140,000 seismic events across 23 days, resulting in ~20,000 well-located events. This local microseismic dataset allows the recording of smaller magnitude events with better spatial coverage than the land networks alone, particularly at shallow depths. Integrating these results with regional structural information and seismic velocity models allows us to further investigate the after-effects of the hypothesised dike intrusion and the activation of shallow fault networks. Our findings provide new insights into the post-peak dynamics of this complex volcano-tectonic seismic swarm in a densely populated and seismically active region of the Aegean.

 

References:

[1] Isken, M. P. et al. (2025). Volcanic crisis reveals coupled magma system at Santorini and Kolumbo. Nature 2025 645:8082, 645(8082), 939–945.

[2] Lomax, A. et al. (2025). The 2025 Santorini unrest unveiled: Rebounding magmatic dike intrusion with triggered seismicity. Science, 390(6775). 

How to cite: Gregory, E., Bayrakci, G., Tary, J.-B., and Yeo, I.: Resolving the final phase of the 2025 Santorini-Amorgos seismic swarm using a local ocean bottom seismometer array, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20161, 2026.

SM8 – Seismic Hazard (earthquake forecasting, engineering seismology, seismic and multi-hazard assessment)

EGU26-1217 | ECS | Posters on site | SM8.1

Seismological and Geodetic Insights on the North Anatolian Fault Zone through Coda Calibration and InSAR Techniques 

Gülşen Tekiroğlu, Tülay Kaya Eken, Kevin Mayeda, Jorge Roman-Nieves, and Tuna Eken

The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is a region of high seismic risk and significant tectonic complexity. In such regions, different magnitude scales provide complementary insights into the physical properties of seismic wave propagation. However, achieving reliable seismic hazard assessment remains challenging due to non-homogeneous magnitude reporting and the potential bias introduced by linking short-period magnitudes (ML​) to moment magnitude (Mw). To address these inconsistencies and improve source characterization, this study presents an integrated seismological and geodetic framework. Our primary objective is to develop a robust, homogeneous Mw​ catalog focusing on events ranging from Mw​ 3.5 to 6.0. To achieve this, we employ the Coda Calibration Tool (CCT), applying the empirical envelope-based method developed by Mayeda et al. (2003). Unlike traditional direct wave analysis, this method utilizes the stable, scattered energy of coda waves to effectively mitigate path and site effects caused by lateral heterogeneity in the crust across diverse tectonic settings. By constraining the calibration with independently derived Mw​ from moment tensor inversion for low frequencies and apparent stress (σA​) for high frequencies, we successfully lower the threshold for reliable Mw​ and radiated energy estimation. Moreover, we validate this seismological approach by conducting geodetic modeling for two significant events: the 23 November 2022 Mw​ 6.0 Düzce and the 18 April 2024 Mw​ 5.6 Tokat earthquakes. We perform Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) analysis using pre- and post-earthquake ascending and descending Sentinel-1 images to create a coseismic deformation map, invert using Okada elastic dislocation modeling to obtain source parameters such as fault slip distribution, and then calculate Mw. The results demonstrate remarkable consistency between Mw values derived from CCT and InSAR. Furthermore, our analysis reveals evidence for non-self-similar source scaling in the NAFZ. We observe that σA​ increases with seismic moment (M0​), suggesting that larger earthquakes radiate energy more efficiently. Additionally, the apparent stress estimates are systematically lower than in other active tectonic regions, indicating a potentially low-seismic-efficiency environment. This multi-physics framework thus produces a homogeneous catalog for refining seismic hazard assessments and provides fundamental new insights into the rupture physics of the NAFZ.

How to cite: Tekiroğlu, G., Kaya Eken, T., Mayeda, K., Roman-Nieves, J., and Eken, T.: Seismological and Geodetic Insights on the North Anatolian Fault Zone through Coda Calibration and InSAR Techniques, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1217, 2026.

EGU26-2193 | ECS | Posters on site | SM8.1

Comparison and reliability of declustering methods evaluated using an ETAS framework 

Omkar Omkar, Shikha Sharma, Shyam Nandan, and Utsav Mannu

Declustering of earthquake catalogs is a fundamental preprocessing step in seismicity analysis and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), as it aims to separate background, approximately Poissonian seismicity from dependent events such as foreshocks and aftershocks. The choice of declustering method can significantly influence estimated seismicity rates, b-values, spatial source models, and ultimately seismic hazard results. Despite its widespread use, there is no consensus on the most reliable declustering approach, and different algorithms often produce substantially different background catalogs for the same dataset. This study presents a systematic comparison of commonly used declustering techniques, including the window-based methods of Gardner and Knopoff, Uhrhammer, and Grünthal; the interaction-based Reasenberg algorithm; the nearest-neighbor clustering method of Zaliapin; and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) based stochastic declustering. All methods are applied to the same regional earthquake catalog with consistent magnitude completeness and spatial coverage to ensure a fair comparison. The resulting declustered catalogs are evaluated in terms of the fraction of events classified as background, their temporal and spatial distributions, and their impact on magnitude-frequency relationships. To assess the reliability of each declustering approach, we use the ETAS model as a reference framework. The comparison reveals pronounced method-dependent variability, particularly at short inter-event times and distances, with window-based methods generally removing a larger proportion of clustered events and interaction-based methods showing sensitivity to user-defined parameters. The Zaliapin method offers a data-driven alternative but may be influenced by spatial heterogeneity, while ETAS-based stochastic declustering provides a probabilistic and internally consistent representation of seismicity at the cost of higher computational and data-quality requirements. The results highlight the need for careful method selection and uncertainty-aware declustering in seismic hazard applications and demonstrate the value of ETAS-based diagnostics as an objective benchmark for evaluating declustering performance.

How to cite: Omkar, O., Sharma, S., Nandan, S., and Mannu, U.: Comparison and reliability of declustering methods evaluated using an ETAS framework, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2193, 2026.

EGU26-10544 | ECS | Posters on site | SM8.1

Controls of fault-system complexity and friction on seismicity in the El Salvador Fault Zone: results from physics-based earthquake cycle simulations 

Paula Herrero-Barbero, Jose A. Álvarez-Gómez, Olaf Zielke, José J. Martínez-Díaz, Jorge Alonso-Henar, Octavi Gómez-Novell, and Marta Béjar-Pizarro

Paleoseismological evidence along the El Salvador Fault Zone (ESFZ) suggests the potential occurrence of earthquakes exceeding Mw7, raising critical questions about the seismic hazard of this complex strike-slip fault system in Central America. Here, we present the first application of physics-based earthquake cycle modelling to this region, aiming to assess whether such large events are physically plausible and to explore how fault-system complexity and frictional properties control seismicity patterns.

We perform long-term earthquake simulations using the MCQsim code (Zielke and Mai, 2023) on three alternative 3D fault models of the ESFZ, characterized by increasing structural complexity. Fault geometries, slip rates, and rakes are constrained using published geodetic, geological, and geomorphological data. A systematic sensitivity analysis explores the role of the critical slip distance (Dc) and the dynamic friction coefficient (μd) into the simulated seismicity statistics. Synthetic seismic catalogues are analysed, globally and segment-by-segment, in terms of maximum magnitude, interevent times, and frequency-magnitude distributions. 

Preliminary results, illustrated here for the simplest fault model and based on 10,000-year-long simulations for a systematic sensitivity analysis, indicate that maximum earthquake magnitudes strongly depend on frictional properties, while the critical slip distance mainly controls seismicity rates. Earthquakes exceeding Mw 7 are obtained only for low dynamic friction, associated with larger stress drops and more energetic ruptures. Increasing Dc reduces the number of small and moderate events, leading to longer interevent times and frequency–magnitude distributions that tend toward a characteristic earthquake behaviour. 

Ongoing work focuses on validating preferred synthetic catalogues for the different fault system complexity against instrumental seismicity and paleoseismological constraints in the ESFZ, including frequency-magnitude relations, recurrence intervals, magnitude-slip scaling, and rupture characteristics of the 2001 Mw6.6 earthquake. Overall, this study provides new insights into fault segment interaction, rupture jumping, and stress transfer along the ESFZ, contributing to improved seismic hazard assessment and supporting emergency management strategies in El Salvador and the broader Central American region.

How to cite: Herrero-Barbero, P., Álvarez-Gómez, J. A., Zielke, O., Martínez-Díaz, J. J., Alonso-Henar, J., Gómez-Novell, O., and Béjar-Pizarro, M.: Controls of fault-system complexity and friction on seismicity in the El Salvador Fault Zone: results from physics-based earthquake cycle simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10544, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10544, 2026.

EGU26-11946 | Posters on site | SM8.1

Study on Co-seismic Response and Variation Mechanism of Water Level in the Myanmar Earthquake 

Lei Tian, Zhihua Zhou, Wei Yan, and Yawei Ma

Study on Co-seismic Response and Variation Mechanism of Water Level in the Myanmar Earthquake

Underground fluid is a kind of medium with fast flow, wide distribution and sensitive reaction stress change, which is also one of the main observation method of earthquake precursor. There are many anomalies in underground flow during earthquake pridiction. At the same time, the occurrence of earthquake also have a great impact on the observation of underground fluid. In particular, the larger the magnitude of the earthquake, the greater impact on the underground fluid.

Underground fluid observations near the epicenter, including observation wells, hot springs, and fault gas, show different changes after the major  earthquake. Some of these changes can recover to the normal observation values within minutes to days after the earthquake. However, other observation wells will show completely different changes from the previous observation value.

The MW7.8 magnitude earthquake that occurred in Myanmar on March 28, 2025, led to co-seismic response changes in water levels and temperatures in multiple observation wells in the Yunnan province of China. According to statistics, a total of 127 water level and 66 water temperature observation wells in the Chinese mainland showed different forms of co-seismic responses. Among the 127 water level co-seismic response changes, 92 showed fluctuations, 11 showed step decreases, and 24 showed step increases; among the 66 water temperature co-seismic responses, 33 showed fluctuations, 11 showed step decreases, and 22 showed step increases. Among these 68 step increase or step decrease changes, 21 had not returned to their original change patterns even one month after the earthquake.

These co-seismic response changes were mainly distributed in the southwestern region of China, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the Tan-Lu Fault Zone. These three regions all have the characteristics of enough observation wells and complex tectonics. Particularly in the Yunnan province, a concentrated distribution of co-seismic response step changes was observed in the area of Baoshan-Dali-Chuxiong, indicating a relatively significant change in the underground tectonic stress state environment. This can also serve as an important basis for predicting the location of future moderate to strong earthquakes. The 5.0 magnitude earthquake that occurred in Eryuan, Yunnan on June 5, 2025, happened within the concentrated area of co-seismic responses caused by the Myanmar earthquake, which confirmed this inference.

How to cite: Tian, L., Zhou, Z., Yan, W., and Ma, Y.: Study on Co-seismic Response and Variation Mechanism of Water Level in the Myanmar Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11946, 2026.

EGU26-16763 | ECS | Posters on site | SM8.1

Multi-rupture Fault-based Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Dauki Fault System, Northeastern India 

Abhishek Kumar Pandey, Rukmini Venkitanarayanan, and Mukat Lal Sharma

The east-west-trending, north-dipping Dauki Fault System (DFS) is among the well-identified active fault systems in the North-Eastern part of India, and it marks the southern geological boundary of the Shillong Plateau, separating it from the Bengal alluvium basin and Sylhet trough. With a length of about 350 km stretching from about 89.9° E to 93° E, DFS is reverse in nature and can be divided into 4 segments, namely, Western, Central, Eastern and Easternmost with variable dip and strike values. Mitra et al. (2018) has indicated that this fault can produce an Mw ∼8 earthquake.
Fault segmentation, fault connectivity, and multi-segment rupture scenarios have been explicitly incorporated into a fault-system-based probabilistic seismic hazard framework for the Dauki Fault System. The SHERIFS (Seismic Hazard and Earthquake Rates In Fault Systems) methodology has been employed to enforce a global magnitude–frequency distribution while converting geological and geodetic slip rates into earthquake rates at the system scale. To account for geometric complexities such as bends and step-overs, a range of rupture hypotheses has been explored, including single-segment ruptures, partial multi-segment ruptures, and through-going system-wide ruptures. Epistemic uncertainties associated with maximum magnitude, rupture connectivity, slip-rate variability, and off-fault seismicity have been quantified using a logic-tree approach.
The resulting earthquake rupture forecasts are tested against available seismicity data of the region. The findings underscore the critical role of fault interactions in determining the seismic hazard along the DFS and indicate the need for system-level modelling to provide a reliable assessment of seismic hazard.
This study is the first to offer a seismic hazard framework based on the multi-rupture scenario for the Dauki Fault System and it also contributes to the improvement of seismic risk assessment for northeastern India and the Indo–Burman–Shillong tectonic domain.

How to cite: Pandey, A. K., Venkitanarayanan, R., and Sharma, M. L.: Multi-rupture Fault-based Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Dauki Fault System, Northeastern India, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16763, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16763, 2026.

EGU26-18486 | ECS | Posters on site | SM8.1

3D full-waveform geoelectrical imaging of the Pantano di San Gregorio Magno basin (Irpinia region, Italy): constraining fault geometry for surface-rupture seismic hazard assessment 

Nunzia Lucci, Miller Zambrano, Pier Paolo Bruno, Tiziano Volatili, Humberto Arellano, Josè Eriza, Pietro Marincioni, Manuel Matarozzi, Yoan Mateus, Selenia Ramos, and Giuseppe Ferrara

The identification and characterization of active and capable faults are essential for subsurface modelling and seismic hazard assessment. In tectonically active areas such as the Southern Apennines, where large historical earthquakes have occurred (Mw ≥ 6.0), detailed fault investigations are critical.  Surface ruptures linked to the Monte Marzano Fault System were observed during the most significant earthquakes of the last century in this region, including the 1980 Ms 6.9 Irpinia earthquake. This study presents a geophysical investigation aimed at detecting fault segments crosscutting the Quaternary sediments that fill the Pantano di San Gregorio Magno (PSGM) intramountain basin, in the Irpinia region.

The geophysical survey targeted a depth range of 25–150 m to image the basin fill and underlying bedrock. The survey was conducted using the FullWaver System (IRIS® Instruments), marking the first time that a 3D FullWaver-based resistivity and induced-polarization survey has fully covered the PSGM basin. The equipment included wireless dual-channel digital receivers and a 5-kW time-domain induced-polarization transmitter, providing flexibility for data acquisition across rugged terrain and minimizing logistical constraints.

After an extensive statistical quality check, considering acquisition conditions and lithological responses, the data were filtered and a robust inversion was executed using ViewLab software. These processes produced a detailed 3D resistivity model of the basin, integrated with a geological model to deliver an accurate view of its architecture. The results enabled the detection of fault segments concealed beneath Quaternary deposits, in agreement with available reflection seismic data. Moreover, induced-polarization data confirmed earlier evidence of degasification anomalies along the surface rupture associated with the 1980 earthquake.

Our findings highlight the effectiveness of deep resistivity tomography performed with wireless acquisition systems as an effective approach for imaging intramountain basins. Beyond methodological advances, these results provide critical constraints for fault-based seismic hazard models, improving the characterization of fault geometry and potential rupture zones in carbonate-dominated settings.

How to cite: Lucci, N., Zambrano, M., Bruno, P. P., Volatili, T., Arellano, H., Eriza, J., Marincioni, P., Matarozzi, M., Mateus, Y., Ramos, S., and Ferrara, G.: 3D full-waveform geoelectrical imaging of the Pantano di San Gregorio Magno basin (Irpinia region, Italy): constraining fault geometry for surface-rupture seismic hazard assessment, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18486, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18486, 2026.

EGU26-18759 | Posters on site | SM8.1

When Earthquakes Cross the Gap: Physics-based Dynamic Modeling of Step-Over Jumps in Normal Faults. 

Sébastien Hok, Hugo Sanchez-Reyes, Oona Scotti, and Alice-Agnes Gabriel

Earthquake rupture propagation across step-overs plays a critical role in controlling the extent of multi-fault ruptures and the final earthquake magnitude. For normal-fault systems, however, the key factors governing rupture-jump potential remain far less investigated than for strike-slip or thrust faults. Assessing rupture behavior in normal fault systems is critical, particularly in tectonically  active regions such as Nevada (USA) (Wernicke et al., 1988), the Corinth Rift (Greece) (Bell et al., 2009), the East African Rift System (Ebinger and Sleep, 1998), and the Italian Apennines (Ghisetti and Vezzani, 2002; Faure Walker et al., 2021). These regions are characterized by damaging seismic activity involving multi-segment normal fault ruptures.

 

In segmented fault systems, rupture may initiate on one fault segment (the emitter) and potentially propagate onto a neighboring segment (the receiver) through dynamically evolving stress perturbations. Using a suite of three-dimensional dynamic rupture simulations performed with SeisSol (Gabriel et al., 2025), this study systematically explores the physical conditions that enable rupture jumps across normal-fault step-overs. We examine the influence of pre-stress level, fault spacing, relative fault positioning, and regional stress orientation. Our results show that rupture jumps across gaps of up to 5 km remain dynamically feasible, and that triggered secondary ruptures can evolve into sustained run-away events when fault segments overlap, even at low pre-stress levels. For such cases, the relative positioning between fault segments is fundamental. In contrast, non-overlapping fault configurations restrict successful rupture jumps to distances of less than 3 km. Fault overlap and proximity, however, introduce strong stress-shadowing effects that decrease slip and limit final earthquake magnitudes, revealing a fundamental trade-off between rupture-jump potential and energy release. Fault geometry exerts a first-order control: configurations in which the receiver fault lies within the hanging wall of the emitter fault consistently exhibit higher rupture-jump potential, more frequent sustained secondary ruptures, and larger magnitudes. Comparisons with static Coulomb stress-change predictions demonstrate that static criteria systematically overestimate rupture connectivity, as they fail to capture transient wave interactions, rapid stress reversals, depth-dependent sensitivity, and stopping-phase effects that govern dynamic triggering. These findings highlight the limitations of static stress-based approaches in seismic hazard assessment and underscore the necessity of dynamic modeling to realistically evaluate multi-fault rupture potential in normal-fault systems.

 

These results are partly motivated by the 2016 Amatrice-Norcia earthquake sequence in Central Italy. Our simplified fault configuration is inspired by the geometry of the Monte Vettore and Laga faults, which ruptured in two major events rather than as a single through-going rupture. In this configuration, the presence of a small gap (3-5 km between faults) and the absence of along-strike overlap between segments tend to inhibit rupture jumps, according to our simulations. As a result, dynamically triggered secondary ruptures occur only under favorable conditions and generally leads to self-arrested secondary ruptures. This provides a plausible dynamic explanation for why rupture did not propagate across the entire fault system in a single event, but instead occurred as a sequence of distinct earthquakes.

How to cite: Hok, S., Sanchez-Reyes, H., Scotti, O., and Gabriel, A.-A.: When Earthquakes Cross the Gap: Physics-based Dynamic Modeling of Step-Over Jumps in Normal Faults., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18759, 2026.

Taiwan is situated in a highly active tectonic zone where dense active faults pose significant risks of permanent ground deformation to critical infrastructure, particularly reservoirs and dams located in the near-fault domain. While Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) regarding ground motion is well-established in Taiwan, a systematic framework for Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis (PFDHA) remains to be developed. This study aims to establish a PFDHA framework tailored to Taiwan's geological setting by evaluating the applicability of existing international empirical models against local observation data and generating the first Fault Displacement Hazard Map for the region.

To select the most appropriate prediction models for Taiwan, we analyzed high-resolution surface rupture data from two significant recent events: the 2018 Mw 6.4 Hualien earthquake and the 2022 Mw 6.9 Chihshang (Taitung) earthquake. We compared these observations against a suite of international empirical prediction equations, ranging from established models (e.g., Petersen et al., 2011) to the most recent developments (e.g., Lavrentiadis et al., 2023; Kuehn et al., 2024; Visini et al., 2025; Chiou et al., 2025). Through statistical analysis, we evaluated the goodness-of-fit of these models across different fault types and magnitudes to identify those that best capture the rupture characteristics of Taiwan's complex fault systems.

Based on the model comparison results, we utilized the OpenQuake engine to compute a preliminary island-wide Fault Displacement Hazard Map for Taiwan. Furthermore, we conducted a site-specific PFDHA for a reservoir located adjacent to an active fault, deriving displacement hazard curves for engineering applications. This study highlights the comparative performance of cutting-edge international models in the Taiwan region and provides a crucial empirical foundation for future infrastructure design and risk mitigation in areas prone to fault displacement.

How to cite: Gao, J.-C., Chou, M.-L., and Chen, Y.-S.: Development of a PFDHA Framework for Taiwan: Comparative Assessment of Models using Recent Surface Ruptures and Hazard Mapping, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20126, 2026.

EGU26-20524 * | Posters on site | SM8.1 | Highlight

Towards a Unified PFDHA Platform: OpenQuake Engine Implementation 

Yen-Shin Chen, Marco Pagani, Laura Peruzza, and Hugo Fernandez

Surface fault displacement poses significant risks to critical infrastructure, including dams, pipelines, and nuclear facilities. Despite advances in probabilistic fault displacement hazard assessment (PFDHA) methodologies over the past two decades, the lack of unified, open-source computational platforms has hindered standardized application and reproducibility. This study presents a comprehensive PFDHA framework integrated within the OpenQuake Engine, providing a standardized platform for fault displacement hazard calculations.

The framework follows the earthquake approach proposed by Youngs et al. (2003), implementing four interchangeable computational modules: (1) primary surface rupture probability, (2) primary fault displacement, (3) secondary surface rupture probability, and (4) secondary fault displacement. This modular architecture enables flexible model selection and facilitates sensitivity analyses across different modeling assumptions.

The implementation integrates state-of-the-art models from diverse sources: models developed through the Fault Displacement Hazard Initiative (FDHI), global empirical regressions derived from updated worldwide databases, region-specific models calibrated for Japan, Australia, and the Western United States, and physics-based numerical approaches. The comprehensive model library comprises 25 models across four categories, validated against International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) benchmarking studies and applicable to normal, reverse, and strike-slip faulting mechanisms.

The framework produces hazard curves expressing annual frequency of exceedance versus displacement amplitude, and hazard maps depicting spatial distribution of displacement at specified return periods. Application to the Calabria region of Italy, including critical dam sites, demonstrates the platform's capability to assess both principal and distributed displacement hazards for infrastructure. Results highlight the dominant contribution of principal faulting near fault traces and the sensitivity of hazard estimates to model selection.

This work represents a significant step toward establishing a standardized, transparent, and reproducible platform for PFDHA, addressing the current lack of unified computational tools in the seismic hazard community.

How to cite: Chen, Y.-S., Pagani, M., Peruzza, L., and Fernandez, H.: Towards a Unified PFDHA Platform: OpenQuake Engine Implementation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20524, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20524, 2026.

EGU26-21248 | ECS | Posters on site | SM8.1

Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis study in northern Calabria (Italy) 

Hugo Fernandez, Yen-Shin Chen, Alessio Testa, Bruno Pace, Paolo Boncio, and Laura Peruzza

Northern Calabria (Italy) is an area with significant historical seismicity (Pollino / Sila Massif). While seismic hazard is now commonly assessed at both local and regional scales, fault displacement hazard also represents an important concern, particularly for critical infrastructure such as dams, bridges and nuclear facilities. In recent years, many efforts have focused on developing PFDHA (FDH initiative; IAEA benchmarks, etc.), leading to the development of several new prediction models.

In this study, we present a regional-scale assessment of fault displacement hazard, using an updated seismotectonic model derived from national fault databases (DISS, ITHACA) and published literature. We identify 11 potential seismogenic sources, of which 10 show normal kinematics and 1 is strike-slip. From these 11 potential sources, we explore 4 alternative source configurations, to account for uncertainty in fault activity. 

For the hazard calculations, we test various prediction models for surface rupture and surface displacement, for both ‘principal’ and ‘distributed' faulting. These models use different displacement metrics (AD/MD) and faulting definitions (principal, distributed, sum-of-principal, aggregated), making a direct inter-model comparison difficult. In addition to the regional-scale analysis and to overcome faulting definitions inconsistencies, we also investigate specific potentially critical sites (dams and bridges), enabling a more comprehensive comparison among models.

Results indicate that the fault displacement hazard is generally low, with return periods for significant displacement values (>10 cm) largely exceeding 10 kyr. The hazard is the highest along the surface fault traces (principal faulting) and decreases rapidly with distance from them (distributed faulting), emphasising the importance of having a reliable knowledge of surface traces of active and capable faults. We also highlight the high model variability, demonstrating the importance of using a logic-tree approach.

How to cite: Fernandez, H., Chen, Y.-S., Testa, A., Pace, B., Boncio, P., and Peruzza, L.: Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis study in northern Calabria (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21248, 2026.

EGU26-22133 | ECS | Posters on site | SM8.1

Multi-approach study for buried fault and its seismic risk assessment, Misis fault, Adana Türkiye 

Büşra Bihter Kurt, Şule Gürboğa, Şahin Doğan, Alper Kıyak, Serkan Köksal, Sevda Demir, Aydın Ayrancı, M. Levent Bakar, Yasin Yılmaz, Burak Kürkçüoğlu, Ömer Hacısalihoğlu, Gökhan Eren Karakulak, Berkan Öztürk, Erdi Apatay, Zeycan Akyol, Esra Ak, Erdener Izladı, Sonel Kaplan, Sinejan Şırayder Şirin, Elif Erol, Simay Can Turan, and Ferhat Emre Çetin

The inadequate characterization of buried faults may lead to unexpected damage resulting from the earthquakes they are capable of generating. Therefore, multi-disciplinary approaches that incorporate buried faults into seismic hazard and risk assessments have gained increasing attention both in national and international literature.  Post-earthquake investigations following the Van Earthquake and the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes in Türkiye indicate the necessity of characterization of tectonic structures.

This study aims to evaluate the potential buried continuation of the Misis Fault, one of the major elements influencing the structural evolution of the Adana Basin, based on geological and geophysical datasets. The investigation was carried out within the framework of the project entitled “Identification of Buried Faults Using Geophysical Methods”, conducted by the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA) of Türkiye. The geometry and spatial spatial extent of the fault were examined using multiple geophysical methods.

During the investigation process, surface observations related to the fault were evaluated to interpret its kinematic characteristics and possible activity from the geological point of view. Drone-borne magnetic surveys, high-resolution UAV-derived orthophotos and 2D seismic reflection data were combined together in the segments where surface morphology are limited. As a result of the integrated evaluation of field studies and geophysical data, outcomes suggesting the presence of structural discontinuities responsible for deformation within the Quaternary basin fill that are not directly observable at the surface. These discontinuities indicate a northward continuation of the Misis Fault beneath the Adana Basin. Furthermore, a previously unrecognized structure striking approximately N20ºW was identified within the basin based on the seismic profiles and orthophoto analyses. This structure, named the Tumlu Segment, is interpreted as a newly segment of the Misis Fault System.

In summary, the combined geological and geophysical results provide new insights into the buried continuation of the Misis Fault within the Adana basin. This finding should contribute to regional-scale seismic hazard and risk assessments.

Keywords: Buried faults, 2D seismic reflection, Drone-borne magnetic survey, orthophoto, Adana Basin, Misis Fault, Tumlu Segment

How to cite: Kurt, B. B., Gürboğa, Ş., Doğan, Ş., Kıyak, A., Köksal, S., Demir, S., Ayrancı, A., Bakar, M. L., Yılmaz, Y., Kürkçüoğlu, B., Hacısalihoğlu, Ö., Karakulak, G. E., Öztürk, B., Apatay, E., Akyol, Z., Ak, E., Izladı, E., Kaplan, S., Şırayder Şirin, S., Erol, E., Can Turan, S., and Çetin, F. E.: Multi-approach study for buried fault and its seismic risk assessment, Misis fault, Adana Türkiye, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22133, 2026.

EGU26-2319 | PICO | SM8.2

Evidence for virtual source-receiver refractions in cross correlations of infrasonic ambient noise 

Läslo G. Evers, Jelle D. Assink, and Julius T. Fricke

Seasonal variability in source activity and atmospheric temperature were retrieved from 11 years of infrasonic ambient noise. Variable lag times between an array (IMS array I53US) and single microbarometer (POKR, AK) were obtained from envelopes of cross-correlation functions. Beamforming and one-bit normalization significantly enhanced the stationary phase. Both microbaroms and surf appeared abundantly present, in the 0.1 to 2.0 Hz frequency band. Modeling revealed both tropospheric and stratospheric propagation of the infrasound, following traditional and more unconventional propagation mechanisms. Virtual source-receiver refractions from stratospheric altitudes appeared a plausible explanation for the unusual short lag times, which allows for new ways to passively probe the stratosphere.

Keypoints:

  • The cross correlation of infrasonic ambient revealed coherent energy from microbaroms and surf from a broad-band analysis
  • Seasonal variability was retrieved in source and medium variations in 11 years of microbarometer data
  • Stratospheric virtual source-receiver refractions can explain the unusual short lag times, providing new means to probe the upper atmosphere 

How to cite: Evers, L. G., Assink, J. D., and Fricke, J. T.: Evidence for virtual source-receiver refractions in cross correlations of infrasonic ambient noise, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2319, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2319, 2026.

A graph of body-wave magnitude (mb) against the logarithm of the announced yield was prepared for a subset of the Soviet peaceful nuclear explosions (PNEs) featured in Sultanov et al. (1999).  A magnitude-log(yield) relation was derived using linear regression. Explosions detonated in cavities or near the surface in cratering experiments were not used, so the resulting relation is for confined explosions in competent rock of various types.  The mb used was the robust network mb derived by the International Seismological Centre (ISC)’s revised procedures (Bondàr and Storchak 2011).  The effect of relocation of some of the epicentres by up to 90 km (difference between ISC revised location and ground truth from Mackey et al. 2017) on network mb values was found to be negligible at one decimal place.  The magnitude-log(yield) relation was determined by orthogonal regression, accounting for errors in both mb and yield.


UK Ministry of Defence © Crown Owned Copyright 2026/AWE.

How to cite: Peacock, S.: Magnitude-yield relation for Soviet Peaceful Nuclear Explosions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2533, 2026.

EGU26-2618 | PICO | SM8.2

Weak-shock analysis of the acoustic signals generated by the OSIRIS-REx re-entry 

Elizabeth Silber and Vedant Sawal

The OSIRIS-REx sample return capsule re-entry provided a unique, controlled opportunity to study atmospheric shock wave propagation from a high-altitude source. Unlike natural meteoroids, which often undergo complex fragmentation and ablation, the capsule offered a stable source for characterizing specific acoustic generation mechanisms. We utilize infrasound data recorded by a regional network of ground-based sensors to analyze the acoustic signature associated with the descent. This study employs a semi-analytical weak-shock approach developed for a cylindrical line source to evaluate signal evolution as the wavefront propagates through the atmosphere. We examine the applicability of established shock theories to the recorded data, comparing theoretical predictions with the observed waveforms. The analysis explores the relationship between source characteristics and observations, providing a framework for better understanding the physics of non-fragmenting and non-ablating entries. These findings have broader implications for the monitoring and characterization of space debris, artificial re-entries, and meteoroids using infrasound stations. 
SNL is managed and operated by NTESS under DOE NNSA contract DE-NA0003525. Cleared for release.

How to cite: Silber, E. and Sawal, V.: Weak-shock analysis of the acoustic signals generated by the OSIRIS-REx re-entry, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2618, 2026.

EGU26-4824 | PICO | SM8.2

Infrasound detection highlights of rockets from and to space 

Christoph Pilger and Patrick Hupe

This study focuses on the infrasound observation and case-based event analysis of recent and exceptional rocket launches for and reentries from space missions. Highlight cases of powerful launches and remarkable reentries are:

  • NASA’s Artemis 1 maiden flight in 2022 (and probably Artemis 2 in early 2026)
  • SpaceX’s Starship flight tests 1 to 11 from 2023 to 2025 (and probably Starship 12 in early 2026)
  • ESA’s Ariane 6 maiden flight in 2024 (and further launches in 2025+)
  • Blue Origin’s New Glenn maiden flight in 2025 (and further launches in 2025+)
  • Selected and detected reentries from Starship, New Glenn and Falcon 9 rockets

Rocket launches and reentries are powerful atmospheric noise sources detectable at infrasound arrays in hundreds to thousands of kilometers distance. Recorded signatures originate from the ignition, launch, supersonic movement, stage separation and reentry of rockets within the first about 100 kilometers of altitude of the atmosphere. Using microbarometer arrays of national observation networks and the International Monitoring System for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, such infrasound events can be remotely identified, localized and characterized.

How to cite: Pilger, C. and Hupe, P.: Infrasound detection highlights of rockets from and to space, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4824, 2026.

Mitigating Seismic Ground Vibration (SGV) near the EKA/AS104 array at Eskdalemuir is increasingly important as Scotland expands wind farm development to meet its 2045 Net Zero commitments. Based on concerns about potential impacts on CTBT monitoring, the UK MoD currently restricts wind farm development near the EKA array, based on an empirical seismic forecasting model. This model assumes a single point source and relies on empirical attenuation and seismic velocity models. In 2004, via a student research paper the UK-MoD also set a limit on the maximum rms ground displacement of 0.336 nm for wind farm development within 50km of EKA array. Our results show that background seismic noise has significantly increased in the last 20 years due to the development of commercial forestry and anthropogenic activity.

To provide an evidence based assessment, two independent studies were commissioned . The first deployed surface seismic stations in a linear array up to 10 km from an existing wind farm and measured SGV across wind speeds from 0 to over 20 m/s. The data show that no detectable turbine related background seismic noise beyond approximately 5.0 km, demonstrating that real-world conditions differ substantially from the assumptions in the MoD’s model.

A second study drilled and cased a 200 m borehole near the EKR4 array element and installed a modern broadband seismometer, along with two additional sensors at the wellhead for comparison. It is well known that borehole sensors—already standard at many CTBT stations—significantly reduce SGV noise and improves signal quality. Data collected throughout 2025 show reductions of ~10 dB on calm days, and up to 25 dB on windy days within the MoD bandwidth of interest (2 to 8 Hz). The borehole sensor shows a clear improvement in signal-to-noise ratios, resulting in clear P-wave arrivals for teleseismic events. Importantly, the study also found that the original MoD threshold of 0.336 nm limit is routinely exceeded due to forestry activities and other man-made sources.

Thus, these findings demonstrate that wind farms have minimal seismic impact beyond ~5 km of such wind farm and that borehole sensors can substantially enhance the array’s resilience to environmental noise. This evidence supports revising the current MoD moratorium to allow unrestricted wind farm development at distances of not less than ~5 km from the Array. The wind industry has offered to drill and install borehole seismic sensors to supplement EKA elements, further strengthening the array’s capability to detect clandestine nuclear tests in support of the CTBT and reducing SGV from other anthropogenic sources, ensuring the long-term operational integrity of the array.

How to cite: Hasting, M. and Suárez, G.: Evidence-Based Seismic Impact of Wind Farms and Borehole Sensor Performance at the EKA Array, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7897, 2026.

Through a cooperation between Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) and Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (IAG), a seismo-acoustic array was installed in Umnugovi area of the southern Govi, Mongolia in September, 2025 for studying regional earthquakes. The study area experienced two big magnitude earthquakes in 1903 and 1960. The magnitude of the former event was 7.5 and the later one was 7.0. Since the 1903 event occurred, lots of small and middle magnitude events have struck the area but the calculation for attaining precise information of seismic parameters such as epicenter, depth of event, origin time, magnitude was partially limited due to poor seismic network in the area. As an initial step to constrain the solutions for the parameters, a single array process is applied with a seismo-acoustic array named HEXAR which is composed of 10 seismometers, 4 Chaparral M21 acoustic sensors, and hose arrays for reducing background wind noise. HEXAR consists of a relatively large array of 2 km aperture as a hexagonal shape and a small seismo-acoustic array of 0.5 km-aperture inner triangular shape. The Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation (PMCC) method is used for the detection and analysis of regional earthquakes and artificial events. For a preliminary stage of the analysis, separating artificial events from natural earthquakes is processed with a discriminant utilizing short period Rayleigh wave and infrasound signal. In this study, clear features of man-made events from two mines in Umnugovi area is presented with the analysis on the detected Rg phase, infrasound signal and epicenter.

How to cite: Kim, T. S.: An analysis on the artificial events in Umnugovi area, Mongolia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8756, 2026.

A combined analysis of seismic and acoustic signal observations for tracking explosive sources generated by the bombardment and shelling during the Russia-Ukraine conflict is presented. Events reported in the bulletins provided by IDC/CTBTO are used to identifying and associating detections of stations of the Central east European Infrsound Network (CEEIN). Seismo-acoustic signature (signal shape and amplitude, frequency content), as well as the propagation path of infrasonic signals, were analysed. As direction and speed of stratospheric winds are subject to change with time, selected events were analysed regarding their yield equivalents under various atmospheric conditions. By using infraGA 2D ray tracer through NRL-G2S atmospheric model, stratospheric and thermosphere infrasonic phases were identified and the energy release, which is described by the equivalent of TNT yield, is estimated by the empirical scaling of Los Alamos National Laboratory, published by Whitaker et al. (2003).

How to cite: Mitterbauer, U. and Ghica, D.: Assessment of yield equivalents from seismo-acoustic records under various atmospheric conditions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9736, 2026.

EGU26-13766 * | ECS | PICO | SM8.2 | Highlight

Detection of Explosive Volcanic Activity through Infrasound: A Global Assessment Using the IMS Network (2011–2020) 

Sandro Matos, Paola Campus, Maurizio Ripepe, and Nicolau Wallenstein

According to the Global Volcanism Program (GVP) of the Smithsonian Institution 1,281 volcanoes are currently considered potentially active, although only a small fraction is monitored in real time. For distant or inaccessible volcanoes, remote monitoring techniques are the only effective mean for continuous observation.

This study assesses the effectiveness of remote detection of explosive volcanic activity through infrasound observations between 2011 and 2020. A detection algorithm has been developed and applied to eruptions recorded in the GVP database with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥ 3. The analysis has used data collected from 43 infrasound stations of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) International Monitoring System (IMS) worldwide network, with distances up to 4,500 km from the selected volcanoes.

The approach has combined event compilation, infrasound data processing and spatio-temporal correlation analysis to associate detections with explosive volcanic activity. The algorithm has been developed based on the Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation (PMCC) method, integrated with the atmospheric profile calculated at the time of each event: this has been realized by incorporating meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models ERA-Interim and ERA5 and the Ground-to-Space (G2S) empirical model.

Validation with event reports from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) International Data Centre (IDC) has demonstrated the robustness of the method. The algorithm has successfully identified 50 of the 67 eruptions and 128 of the 186 distinct explosive events (with VEI ≥ 3) at 30 volcanoes, representing detection efficiencies of 75% and 69%, respectively.

The results highlight that the described method, joint to the IMS global infrasound network capability of provide a reliable tool for remote monitoring of explosive volcanic activities: this, enhances the global early warning potential, in particular in remote areas where local monitoring networks are not available.

How to cite: Matos, S., Campus, P., Ripepe, M., and Wallenstein, N.: Detection of Explosive Volcanic Activity through Infrasound: A Global Assessment Using the IMS Network (2011–2020), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13766, 2026.

EGU26-13924 | PICO | SM8.2

Explosive yield estimates for shallow water explosions from moment magnitudes 

Andreas Steinberg, Christian Weidle, Trine Dahl-Jensen, and Björn Lund

The explosive yield- seismic magnitude relation of shallow submarine explosions are not well confined. Local agencies often use local seismic magnitude, such as the traditional richter scale, which are often not calibrated for submarine environments. The importance of an estimated explosive yield in TnT equivalent becomes obvious when security concerns arise. After the North Stream events a number of very differing magnitude were presented by several seismological surveys and therefore the related yield estimates varied a lot. This lead to derived estimates ranging from tens of kg to hundreds of kg TnT equivalent explosive used in the North Stream explosions, giving different plausible scenarios for potential perpetrators.

We present an relatively simple and fast approach to use the comparison of recorded and forward modelled envelope and cepstral information to derive the moment magnitude of several large and small submarine explosion in the Baltic sea. Moment magnitudes are more robust in comparison to local magnitudes. We asses the performance of this approach by relating the moment magnitudes to yield estimates from known explosive eventsWe use events from the Baltic sea, including events from offshore Bornholm from September 2025 with around 400kg TnT yield, recorded at local and regional distances up to 500km.

Infrasound recordings of stations in Germany are in good correlation with the seismic recordings, showing the possibility of combined energy release estimates. The strong importance of the source depth and shallow submarine geology is highlighted by the modelling results, providing still a large uncertainty range for unknown sources. We do find in general a good agreement between the estimated yield and actual yield for the known sources.

How to cite: Steinberg, A., Weidle, C., Dahl-Jensen, T., and Lund, B.: Explosive yield estimates for shallow water explosions from moment magnitudes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13924, 2026.

EGU26-17363 | ECS | PICO | SM8.2

Spatio-Temporal Variability of the Earthquake-Generated Ocean Soundscape: Decoupling Source Magnitude from Acoustic Conversion Efficiency 

Tolulope Olugboji, Tushar Mittal, Sayan Swar, and Kevin Heaney

Ocean soundscape analysis frequently relies on time-averaged metrics, treating geophony as a quasi-stationary background component. This approach obscures the stochastic, high-amplitude variability introduced by solid Earth seismicity, which dominates the low-frequency spectrum (<100 Hz) and exerts significant, transient environmental forcing. A fundamental knowledge gap remains regarding the transfer function between seismic ground motion and the resulting hydroacoustic pressure field. While T-phase excitation is known to occur via scattering at rough fluid-solid interfaces, the global scaling relationship between seismic source parameters (magnitude, depth, focal mechanism) and far-field acoustic intensity remains unconstrained. Specifically, it is unknown whether seismic-to-acoustic coupling is a globally constant scalar or a spatially variance function of local boundary conditions.

 

We present a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of the global earthquake soundscape, utilizing ten years (2015–2025) of continuous hydrophone records from the CTBTO International Monitoring System (Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans). Integrating IRIS seismic catalogs, we analyze over 10,000 events to quantify T-phase energy flux and duration. To isolate source mechanics from propagation effects, we correct for transmission loss using 3D ocean acoustic models and apply backprojection techniques to verify source azimuths. We employ a machine-learning framework to regress acoustic observations against high-resolution geophysical constraints, including Slab 2.0 geometry, slab thermal structure (controlling attenuation), global sediment thickness maps, and seafloor roughness metrics.

 

Our results challenge the assumption of a linear magnitude-loudness relationship. We identify significant spatial heterogeneity in T-phase generation, governed by a "Tectonic Efficiency" factor unique to specific margins. We demonstrate that acoustic amplitude and signal duration are strongly modulated by the incidence angle of P- and S-waves relative to the seafloor slope (conversion efficiency) and the scattering potential of the bathymetric interface. Furthermore, we find that thermal structure and sediment cover significantly damp high-frequency injection into the SOFAR channel at specific subduction zones. By resolving the physics of this coupling, we transform earthquake geophony from noise into a deterministic signal. This framework allows for the inversion of far-field hydroacoustic records to monitor changes in seafloor roughness and near-surface crustal properties, providing a novel remote sensing modality for the ocean floor.

How to cite: Olugboji, T., Mittal, T., Swar, S., and Heaney, K.: Spatio-Temporal Variability of the Earthquake-Generated Ocean Soundscape: Decoupling Source Magnitude from Acoustic Conversion Efficiency, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17363, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17363, 2026.

The estimation of seismic moment tensors for shallow sources is known to be highly sensitive to near-source conditions, including surface topography and shallow geological structure, which are often poorly constrained. In this contribution, we present a sensitivity analysis as part of a uncertainty quantification effort, aimed at assessing how uncertainties in near-source parameters propagate into uncertainties in inferred seismic moment tensors.
The study focuses on the Degelen Mountains dataset, which provides a well-documented setting with shallow explosive sources and complex near-surface geology.

Our methodology relies on high-fidelity 3D forward simulations of seismic wave propagation using the spectral element method, allowing accurate modeling of topographic effects and strong near-surface heterogeneities. Uncertainties in geological properties in the immediate vicinity of the source are represented using perturbations from stochastic parameterizations based on a correlation length setting, enabling the generation of physically consistent
realizations of the near-source medium. For each realization, synthetic waveforms are computed and used to perform moment tensor inversions, from which the variability of source parameters is quantified.

This framework allows us to systematically explore the sensitivity of moment tensor solutions to localized uncertainties and to identify the dominant contributors to source-related ambiguity and provide new insights into the robustness and limitations of moment tensor inversion for shallow seismic sources in complex environments.

How to cite: Burgos, G. and Guilllot, L.: Quantifying the impact of near-source uncertainties on seismic moment tensor inference, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17929, 2026.

Oceanic T-waves are sensitive to weak seismic and acoustic signals and hold significant advantages for constraining earthquake and tsunami characteristics, monitoring ocean temperature changes, and other marine environmental observations. However, the quantitative relationship between T-wave features and seismic source parameters remains unclear. This study analyzes the characteristics (e.g., arrival time, duration, energy) of T-waves excited by the 3 April 2024 Mw 7.3 Hualien, Taiwan mainshock and its aftershock sequence, using records from Pacific CTBTO hydrophone arrays and island-based seismic stations. The results indicate that the Hualien earthquake sequence generated prominent T-wave signals, whose excitation strength correlates positively with earthquake magnitude. Furthermore, systematic differences in energy were observed between T-waves excited by near-shore earthquakes and those from typical submarine earthquakes, suggesting that source location and mechanism play a critical role in T-wave generation efficiency. The analysis confirms that T-waves, even after long-distance propagation, retain high-frequency information from the source process. Their waveform characteristics can provide independent constraints on source parameters, offering valuable insights for utilizing T-waves in source parameter inversion.

How to cite: Zhou, Y., Zhang, Y., Xu, M., Ni, S., and Chu, R.: Characteristics of T-waves Excited by the 3 April 2024 Mw 7.3 Hualien, Taiwan, China Earthquake Sequence and Their Relationship with Source Parameters, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20149, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20149, 2026.

A network of radionuclide stations forms one part of the International Monitoring System (IMS) for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). These radionuclide stations are highly sensitive and continuously monitor the atmosphere for tiny traces of radioactive fission and activation products.  All IMS radionuclide stations have a high-volume sampler for detecting particulate radionuclides; some are also equipped with noble gas systems for measuring radioxenon. Specific radioactive xenon isotopes are more likely to escape from underground nuclear explosions and exhibit less complex atmospheric transport characteristics.

A central challenge of radioxenon monitoring for the CTBT is attributing and classifying detections originating from reactor sources. As was seen in the aftermath of the announced North Korean nuclear test explosions, atmospheric transport modelling is crucial for interpreting the spatial and temporal relevance of radioxenon detections in the context of potential CTBT non-compliance.

In this respect, the IMS noble gas system at RN38 in Takasaki, Japan, is very important due to its location downwind of the Korean Peninsula, particularly during the northern winter months. In summer, the influence of the East Asian monsoon leads to dynamic patterns that extend further north and north-east.

Several episodes of considerably high radioxenon activity concentrations in the range of tens of mBq/m³ were observed at RN38 in the years 2024 and 2025. These activity concentrations are ten to twenty times higher than those usually observed at comparable stations, but are still several orders of magnitude below levels of radiological concern. Backward atmospheric transport modelling investigates the potential source region of these detections by identifying areas of coincident atmospheric sensitivity. This enables a clear attribution to a common source region around Yongbyon. In particular, the North Korean nuclear test site can be excluded as the origin of the recurring detections. However, the potential blinding effect for telltale traces from nuclear tests, as well as their impact on other monitoring stations in the region and the IMS, is estimated by evaluation of forward ATM forecasts for hypothetical emissions from the North Korean test-site. 

How to cite: Ross, J. O., Brander, S., and Hupe, P.: Coincidence source localization by backward atmospheric transport modelling for a series of radioxenon detections at the IMS station RN 38, Takasaki, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21180, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21180, 2026.

Assessing the influence of local site conditions on seismic ground motion is crucial for seismic hazard analysis and earthquake engineering research and applications. This study analyzes site effects in the Kumamoto area, Japan, using 985 high-quality horizontal strong-motion records from 45 aftershocks (Mj = 2.7-4.9) recorded within 24 hours following the 2016 Kumamoto Mj 7.3 earthquake, as observed by 51 K-NET and KiK-net stations. For the generalized inversion technique (GIT), a reference station is required as a standard. In the GIT process, the number of events available for analysis is limited to those recorded by the reference station, and the stations whose site effects can be estimated are restricted to those that record common events with the reference station. To overcome this limitation, we apply the “transfer-station generalized inversion method (TSGI),” a modified GIT, to obtain the site responses for all stations and the average S-wave quality factor (QS) in the study area. It is found that QS is proportional to frequency in the 0.4-3 Hz range, while at frequencies above approximately 3 Hz, the dependence of QS on frequency becomes weak and QS can be regarded as constant. However, the results of GIT and TSGI are relative to the reference station, which may itself exhibit site effects. Therefore, we additionally apply a reference-independent technique, i.e., genetic algorithm (GA), to obtain the absolute site amplifications. Our result shows that at frequencies greater than about 1 Hz, the site response of the reference station is substantially lower than the theoretical amplification factor of 2, resulting in an overestimation of the site responses at other stations. When the results of GIT are corrected with the site response of the reference station obtained from GA, these two results agree very well for most of the stations. This indicates that the results of GIT are reliable if the reference station is an ideal surface rock station. The GA method yields accurate absolute site amplification factors for the stations investigated this study, demonstrating the effectiveness of GA in site effect analysis. In addition, we analyze the characteristics of S-wave high-frequency attenuation parameter (κ) in the Kumamoto area, and establish κ models for different site conditions and an empirical κ0-VS30 relationship.

How to cite: Zhang, W. and Zhou, T.: Estimation of site effects in the Kumamoto area, Japan, using aftershock acceleration records of the 2016 Kumamoto Mj 7.3 earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-222, 2026.

EGU26-1533 | ECS | Orals | SM8.3

ANN-Based Ground Motion Model for the Azores Plateau (Portugal) Using Stochastic Ground Motion Simulations 

Shaghayegh Karimzadeh, S. M. Sajad Hussaini, Daniel Caicedo, Amirhossein Mohammadi, Alexandra Carvalho, and Paulo B. Lourenço

Abstract:

This study develops an artificial neural network (ANN)-based ground motion model (GMM) for the Azores Plateau (Portugal) using a dataset generated through stochastic finite-fault simulations. The simulations are performed for both onshore and offshore rock-site scenarios, employing a dynamic corner-frequency algorithm. Randomized source and path parameters are incorporated to capture the aleatory variability of regional seismicity. The simulated ground motions are validated through a comprehensive statistical framework, confirming that the implemented randomization reproduces realistic variance and inter-period correlations observed in recorded data. The ANN-based GMM is trained using the simulated database to predict spectral acceleration across a wide range of magnitudes and source-to-site distances. The developed model and accompanying dataset together provide a reliable foundation for seismic hazard and risk assessments in the Azores Plateau region.

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN); Ground motion model (GMM); Stochastic finite-fault simulation; Onshore and offshore scenarios; Spectral acceleration prediction; Azores Plateau (Portugal).

Acknowledgments:

This work is financed by national funds through FCT – Foundation for Science and Technology, under grant agreement [2023.08982.CEECIND/CP2841/CT0033] attributed to the first author (https://doi.org/10.54499/2023.08982.CEECIND/CP2841/CT0033). This work was also supported by FCT/ Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior (MCTES) under the R&D Unit Institute for Sustainability and Innovation in Structural Engineering (ISISE), under the references UID/4029/2025 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/04029/2025) and UID/PRR/04029/2025 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/PRR/04029/2025), and under the Associate Laboratory Advanced Production and Intelligent Systems (ARISE) under reference LA/P/0112/2020. This work is partly financed by national funds through FCT (Foundation for Science and Technology), under grant agreement [UI/BD/153379/2022] attributed to the second author. This work is partly financed by national funds through FCT – Foundation for Science and Technology, under grant agreement [2023.01101.BD] attributed to the third author.

How to cite: Karimzadeh, S., Hussaini, S. M. S., Caicedo, D., Mohammadi, A., Carvalho, A., and Lourenço, P. B.: ANN-Based Ground Motion Model for the Azores Plateau (Portugal) Using Stochastic Ground Motion Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1533, 2026.

To evaluate the high seismic risk and structural health monitoring (SHM) on the Tainan tableland, we equipped a P-alert seismometer array in an academic building of the Department of Resources Engineering, National Cheng Kung University (NCKU). With the R-1 rotational seismometer deployed on the 12th floor, the vertical and horizontal arrays help us to resolve the rotation kinematics in seismic events. The SHM system recorded 65 earthquakes from April 2024 to December 2025, including the 2024 Hualien earthquake and the 2025 Dapu earthquakes. These records enable the systematic analysis of the rotation rate comparison of asymmetric high-rise buildings. Rotation rates were estimated from horizontal accelerations using an array-derivative formulation and were validated against the direct measurements from the R-1 rotational seismometer. In this study, the rotation rates are consistent with two equipment, and the maximum torsion was taking place in the location far away from the elevator due to the building asymmetry. Moreover, the varied, position-dependent rotation rates can be determined by the P-alert horizontal array. To address the site effect of the Tainan metropolitan area, two earthquakes recorded by the NCKU Distributed Acoustic Sensing (NCKUDAS) were used to understand the amplification effect that foundations exert on buildings during earthquakes. To utilize these observations, we propose a machine-learning framework to test the vulnerability of building with the event magnitude. This integrated study provides a robust methodology for torsion-aware SHM and performance-based retrofitting decisions in seismically active regions.    

How to cite: Wu, H.-Y., Yeh, Y.-T., and Huang, C.-Y.: Integrated Seismic Risk Assessment of Asymmetric High-Rise Structures: Insights from Building Array, Distributed Acoustic Sensing, and Machine Learning-Based Hazard Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2120, 2026.

The 3D bedrock geometry in the Firenze area was reconstructed from seismic noise measurements and borehole data. A total of ~ 300 measurements of seismic noise, collected since 2002 with various instruments (Le3D-Lite, Le3D-5sec, Tromino) were used to derive the fundamental frequency using the HVSR methodology. The fundamental frequencies obtained range from 0.4 to 12 Hz and provide robust constraints for site effect characterization. Using borehole data, the relationship between frequency and sediment thickness was quantified through nonlinear regression, yielding h= 137 f -1.147.  Among the investigated locations, the Mantignano area in western Florence was selected for detailed study with an array of 13 seismic stations equipped with Le3D-Lite seismometers, where inversion of HVSR spectra was performed and dispersion curve of surface wave was measured. For the HVSR inversion we employed the MATLAB- based OpenHVSR program. The inversion workflow incorporates an integrated misfit- minimization algorithm, allowing detailed reconstruction of the 3D subsurface structure at the Mantignano site. The results show that the bedrock position in Mantignano governs the stable low-frequency peak of all the HVSR curve, whereas the higher- frequency peaks reflect the near-surface horizons. 

Additionally, phase-velocity information from surface waves, obtained using both CPSD measurements and the theoretical Bessel J0 model, provides consistent constraints on frequency–velocity pairs, improving the reliability of the dispersion characteristics obtained from Cross Spectral phase data. 

How to cite: Ayoqi, N. and Marchetti, E.: Detailed 3D bedrock geometry in the Firenze area from HVSR seismic noise measurements, seismic noise inversion and dispersion curves of surface waves, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2237, 2026.

Soil liquefaction occurs when saturated soil loses strength due to excess pore pressure generated by seismic activity, often resulting in severe structural failures. Recent earthquakes have highlighted the need for accurate prediction and mitigation, especially in geotechnical engineering, where many interconnected parameters are difficult to define or model mathematically. Triggered by intense ground shaking, liquefaction can undermine the seismic response of urban infrastructure, making early prediction crucial for disaster resilience in densely populated areas. To address these challenges, Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques—particularly machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL)—offer a powerful alternative to traditional methods by effectively capturing complex, high-dimensional data patterns. In this study, we propose a hybrid framework combining the Jellyfish Search (JS) algorithm for hyperparameter optimization within an ensemble learning architecture. The model combines the feature-extraction capabilities of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) with the classification performance of eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB). Data from Cone Penetration Tests (CPT) obtained from the literature are converted into image-like formats to leverage CNN capabilities before classification by XGB. Performance evaluations compared the proposed models against both standalone and hybrid models documented in previous studies. Among individual machine learning models, XGB outperformed others, followed by Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN). The CNN model slightly exceeded existing standalone and hybrid ML-based models, including the Smart Firefly Algorithm with Least Squares SVM (SFA-LSSVM). When combined, the CNN-XGB model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy compared to either model used alone, highlighting the effectiveness of deep machine learning integration. The proposed JS-CNN-XGB model achieved the highest overall performance, with an additional 2.0% accuracy gain over the CNN-XGB model. These results indicate that XGB is the most robust predictive classification model, with CNN capturing complex features effectively, and that JS further enhances overall performance. Collectively, the JS-CNN-XGB model provides accurate and generalized predictions of liquefaction. Designed for civil engineers and construction risk managers, the system—featuring an embedded JS-CNN-XGB model—offers an intuitive interface and reliable analytical tools, functioning as a practical decision-support system for liquefaction risk assessment. Overall, these contributions emphasize the importance of integrating bio-inspired optimization with deep machine learning to address complex geotechnical challenges and turn research into practical solutions.

How to cite: Chou, J.-S. and Pham, T.-B.-Q.: A Hybrid Deep-Machine Learning Model with Bio-Inspired Optimization for Improved Soil Liquefaction Prediction, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2793, 2026.

EGU26-3507 | Orals | SM8.3

A New Seismic Hazard Map for Greenland 

Tine B. Larsen, Peter H. Voss, Brian Carlton, Trine Dahl-Jensen, Aurelien Mordret, Nicolai Rinds, and Emil Fønss Jensen

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was carried out for Greenland based on the revised earthquake catalogue of GEUS for the period 1974-2022. The analysis is based on more than 5.000 earthquakes. For the analysis Greenland has been divided into 9 areal zones, identical to the zones used in a previous study by Voss et al (2007). The zones are defined based on seismicity and geological provinces. The seismic network in Greenland is sparse and the configuration of the network changes significantly with time. During periods with large international projects the station network is densified, but hundreds of km between neighbouring stations is not uncommon. Some areas experience frequent earthquakes, especially in SE Greenland around the town of Tasiilaq, but most earthquakes in Greenland are less than Magnitude 4.5. The hazard analysis has been carried out using HAZ45.3 for Windows and the code has been validated against the 2007 study. Lacking local information on attenuation a global reference model for normal faults in hard rocks has been applied. Sufficient data were available to obtain robust hazard levels for 7 out of 9 areal zones. One zone in NW Greenland had too few recorded earthquakes for the analysis, and the zone defined by the inland ice was omitted as well. Most of coastal Greenland has peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard values around 0.04g, with slightly higher values up to 0.06g in SE Greenland for a return period of 475 years.

How to cite: Larsen, T. B., Voss, P. H., Carlton, B., Dahl-Jensen, T., Mordret, A., Rinds, N., and Fønss Jensen, E.: A New Seismic Hazard Map for Greenland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3507, 2026.

EGU26-3884 | Posters on site | SM8.3

Revealing the buried structure of Apennines intermontane basins through dense nodal microtremor surveys: the case of Colfiorito and Annifo basins (central Italy). 

Maurizio Ercoli, Giuseppe Di Giulio, Massimiliano Porreca, Elham Safarzadeh, Giorgio Alaia, and Carlo Alberto Brunori

Extensive microtremor surveys can provide valuable constraints on the deep structure of seismically active Quaternary intramontane basins. This study investigates two study areas, namely the Colfiorito and Annifo basins, which were affected by a seismic sequence during the years 1997–1998  [1]. Within the framework of the First ILGE Transnational Access (TNA) and National Open Access (NOA) Call (within the PNRR MEET WP3 project), a dense microtremors dataset was acquired in 2024 to improve the geological characterization of the two Quaternary basins. A total of 160 single-station microtremor measurements were collected over six days using 48 seismic nodes equipped with 4.5 Hz triaxial sensors, with recording time windows ranging from a few hours to two days. Two helicoidal nodal arrays were deployed in the northern Colfiorito plain and an additional one was installed in the southern area of the Annifo basin, to derive detailed shear-wave velocity profiles [2]. Moreover, two temporary stations equipped with 5-s Lennartz sensors and Reftek dataloggers were also operated for a few days. H/V spectral ratio analysis was carried out and revealed contrasting behaviors between the two basins. In Annifo, H/V peaks exceed 1.0 Hz, with the main depocenter located in the southern part of the basin. In Colfiorito, two main H/V frequency ranges have been observed: one is characterized by low-frequency peaks, between 0.6 and 1.0 Hz, located between the central and northeastern sectors of the basin, whilst a second, with frequencies between 1.0 and 6.0 Hz, characterizes the rest of the basin. In Colfiorito, the spatial distribution of resonant frequencies is consistent with a recent and independent gravimetric survey results [3], which identifyed two significant gravity minima in the central sector of the basin.

Acknowledgments

This publication results from work carried out under transnational     /national open access  (TNA/NOA) action under the support of WP3 ILGE - MEET project, PNRR - UE Next Generation Europe program, MUR grant number D53C22001400005.

References

[1] Messina, P.; Galadini, F.; Galli, P.; Sposato, A. Quaternary Basin Evolution and Present Tectonic Regime in the Area of the 1997–1998 Umbria–Marche Seismic Sequence (Central Italy). Geomorphology 2002, 42, 97–116, doi:10.1016/S0169-555X(01)00077-0.

[2] Di Giulio, G.; Cornou, C.; Ohrnberger, M.; Wathelet, M.; Rovelli, A. Deriving Wavefield Characteristics and Shear-Velocity Profiles from Two-Dimensional Small-Aperture Arrays Analysis of Ambient Vibrations in a Small-Size Alluvial Basin, Colfiorito, Italy. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2006, 96, 1915–1933.

[3] Di Filippo, M.; Mancinelli, P.; Cavinato, G.P.; Pauselli, C.; Sabatini, A.; Mirabella, F.; De Franco, R.; Barchi, M.R. Bouguer Gravity Anomaly in the Colfiorito Quaternary Continental Basin, Northern Apennines, Central Italy. Journal of Maps 2025, 21, 2503244, doi:10.1080/17445647.2025.2503244.

How to cite: Ercoli, M., Di Giulio, G., Porreca, M., Safarzadeh, E., Alaia, G., and Brunori, C. A.: Revealing the buried structure of Apennines intermontane basins through dense nodal microtremor surveys: the case of Colfiorito and Annifo basins (central Italy)., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3884, 2026.

EGU26-4355 | ECS | Posters on site | SM8.3

Improving Seismic Microzonation of the Taipei Basin Using Response Spectra and Geology Informed Interpolation 

Ciao-Huei Yang, Jia-Cian Gao, Jia-Jyun Dong, and Chyi-Tyi Lee

The seismic response of the Taipei Basin is heavily influenced by its basin geometry and thick sedimentary deposits. These conditions focus seismic energy and govern surface shaking, resulting in prolonged durations and enhanced long-period content that pose significant risks to high-rise buildings and critical infrastructure. In structural design, the corner period (T0) of the response spectrum is a concise measure of frequency content that integrates source, path, and site effects. With the basin's dense strong-motion network, this study directly derives T0 from observations to refine seismic microzonation and design evaluations.

This study compiled a comprehensive dataset of moderate-to-large earthquakes (MW ≥ 5 or local PGA ≥ 10 gal) recorded in Taiwan from 1992 to 2024. Records underwent a unified processing workflow of baseline correction, filtering, and 5%-damped response spectra generation, after which events were categorized into crustal, subduction-interface, and intraslab types. For each category, the T0 was determined using the mean plus one standard deviation spectrum as the target. Results indicate pronounced spatial variations in T0 for crustal and subduction-interface earthquakes. Values are longest in the northwestern to north-northeastern regions (exceeding 1.5 sec) and shortest along the southeastern region. In contrast, intraslab events exhibit minimal spatial variation. Correlation analysis confirms that T0 distribution is strongly controlled by geological conditions, specifically bedrock depth and sediment thickness. By incorporating these geological parameters into spatial interpolation, this study enhances the resolution and physical interpretability of the microzonation, providing a more robust and detailed reference for seismic design in the Taipei Basin.

How to cite: Yang, C.-H., Gao, J.-C., Dong, J.-J., and Lee, C.-T.: Improving Seismic Microzonation of the Taipei Basin Using Response Spectra and Geology Informed Interpolation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4355, 2026.

EGU26-6376 | Posters on site | SM8.3

Assessing Topographic Site Effects and Seismic Microzonation in Northern Croatia: Case Study Insights from the 2020 Earthquake Sequence 

Davor Stanko, Laura Novak, Jasmin Jug, Nikola Hrnčić, Snježana Markušić, and Marijan Kovačić

The 2020 earthquake sequence in Croatia caused significant damage, particularly to cultural assets and older masonry buildings in areas of pronounced topography in Northern Croatia (EMS intensity VI). The observed damage distribution aligns closely with topographical features, with higher intensities recorded in hilly areas—such as Hrvatsko Zagorje, Ivanščica, Kalnik, and Međimurje—compared to adjacent alluvial basins.

To investigate these phenomena, this study presents results from microtremor measurements using the Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) method across five localities characterised by distinct geological and morphological configurations. We integrated HVSR fundamental frequencies with local geological data to derive detailed seismic microzonation maps that quantify the terrain's resonance potential. These maps illustrate critical correlations between the slope/height of the dominant hill axis and the measured site frequencies.

Our analysis confirms that topographic site effects are primarily driven by the focusing of seismic waves at ridge crests, a process governed by diffraction, reflection, and wave type conversions. It is observed that amplification is highly frequency-dependent; resonance is strongest when the incoming wavelength aligns with the ridge’s frequency characteristics. Furthermore, the steepness of the topography plays a major role, with the uppermost portions of hills consistently showing stronger resonant motion than lower slopes.

Preliminary site amplification factors calculated for the 2020 earthquake scenarios (Zagreb Mw 5.4 and Petrinja Mw 6.4) reveal complex interactions between topographic irregularities and wave propagation. These findings underscore the necessity of explicitly incorporating topographic site effects into seismic microzonation studies. This approach is essential for producing reliable ground-shaking models and refining the local seismic-hazard assessment, particularly for preserving vulnerable historical structures in seismically active regions of Northern Croatia.

How to cite: Stanko, D., Novak, L., Jug, J., Hrnčić, N., Markušić, S., and Kovačić, M.: Assessing Topographic Site Effects and Seismic Microzonation in Northern Croatia: Case Study Insights from the 2020 Earthquake Sequence, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6376, 2026.

EGU26-6651 | ECS | Posters on site | SM8.3

Developing a seismic soil class map for Switzerland using geophysical parameters  

Janneke van Ginkel, Paulina Janusz, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, and Paolo Bergamo

We present the development of a nationwide seismic soil class map for Switzerland that implements the revised soil classification introduced in the new Eurocode 8 (EC8). In contrast to the current fragmented cantonal products, which are largely based on geological criteria and not directly compatible with EC8, the new scheme prioritizes geophysical descriptors of the subsurface, in particular average shear-wave velocity of the near surface (Vs30, vs,H) and the depth to engineering bedrock (H800). The resulting map will also support the updated national seismic hazard model.

 To enable a consistent national study, we assembled large-scale datasets. These include shear-wave profiles estimated at seismic stations and other sites, horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSR) analyses, standard- and cone penetration test datasets, and complementary geological information such as lithology, digital bedrock models, and borehole data. Together, these resources would allow mapping of shear-wave velocity structure and sediment thickness, which form the basis for the new EC8 classification.

 The project is currently in its initial stage. We design a workflow that integrates measured velocity and HVSR information, where available, and use lithological and geological classifications as proxies where coverage is sparse. Thereby shifting from a purely geological classification to one that privileges geophysical parameters prescribed by EC8. This contribution outlines the conceptual design, data resources, and preliminary implementation of this geophysics-driven national soil class map and highlights its relevance for seismic hazard assessment, engineering practice, and future updates as new data become available.

How to cite: van Ginkel, J., Janusz, P., Shynkarenko, A., and Bergamo, P.: Developing a seismic soil class map for Switzerland using geophysical parameters , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6651, 2026.

Assessing ground shaking at a high spatial resolution after a recent or future earthquake is crucial for a rapid impact assessment and risk management. This is particularly important in urban areas, where small-scale differences can significantly affect the impact of an earthquake on people and property. However, classical seismological networks are usually too sparse to capture the variability of ground shaking at such a high spatial resolution. In this study, we demonstrate how a multivariate spatial statistical model can enhance ShakeMaps by combining station data (e.g. peak ground accelerations) with information from Earthquake Network citizen science initiatives (e.g. smartphone accelerations). The statistical model accounts for the heterogeneity of the data sources in terms of spatial density, measurement uncertainty, and bias. The model achieves data fusion without the need for calibration relationships or co-located information and naturally provides ShakeMap uncertainty.

We apply our approach to the highly monitored area of Campi Flegrei in Italy, where the Earthquake Network initiative involves around 9,000 participants and smartphones. By combining the data gathered from multiple seismic events, we also demonstrate how to generate a high-resolution amplification map of the area, which is useful for enhancing ground motion models.

How to cite: Finazzi, F., Cotton, F., and Bossu, R.: Enhancing microzonation, ground motion models and ShakeMaps through the spatial statistical modelling of seismological station and crowdsourced smartphone data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9428, 2026.

EGU26-9740 | Orals | SM8.3

Polarization analysis of the seismic ambient noise in La Laguna Valley (Tenerife, Spain) and its relationship with the local seismic response 

David M. van Dorth, Iván Cabrera-Pérez, Luca D'Auria, Víctor Ortega-Ramos, Manuel Calderón-Delgado, Sergio de Armas-Rillo, Pablo López-Díaz, Rubén García-Hernández, Óscar Rodríguez, Aarón Álvarez-Hernández, and Nemesio M. Pérez

Ambient seismic noise analysis provides an interesting source of information to characterize the subsoil and to investigate local seismic site effects in urban areas. In this study, we present a polarization analysis of ambient noise data acquired in the Aguere Valley (Tenerife), an infilled basin characterized by soft clay-silt deposits and stacked lava flows with pyroclastic and scoria intercalations. We collected a total of 467 ambient noise measurements, covering the entire valley. This dataset has already been analyzed using the standard HVSR method. 

The analysis examines the directional properties of the seismic wavefield to identify preferential azimuths of ground motion and their possible relationship with local heterogeneities and basin geometry. Polarization characteristics are investigated by evaluating the azimuthal dependence of the Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) through systematic rotation of the horizontal components over the 0°–180° azimuthal range. This approach allows assessing the azimuthal variability in the H/V ratio and the identification of frequency-dependent polarization features, providing additional constraints on the directional behaviour in a geological complex valley within an urban area.  

The results show that polarization analysis often exhibits: 1) localized azimuthal maxima with high H/V values in a narrow angular range, and 2) broad azimuthal bands in the entire polarization angle range characterized by elevated H/V values without any well-defined preferential direction. In many cases, azimuthal features with elevated H/V values are observed between approximately 50° and 160° at frequencies between 1–3 Hz, forming an eye-shaped pattern in the azimuth–frequency domain. At higher frequencies, between 7 and 20 Hz, the H/V response typically exhibits bands with high values across most of the azimuthal range (0º–180º), indicating weak directional dependence.  

These features generally coincide with the main frequency peaks previously identified in the HVSR curves, suggesting a close relationship between polarization patterns and site resonance frequencies. The observed azimuthal variability likely reflects the complexity of the ambient seismic wavefield and its interaction with the local subsurface geology. 

How to cite: M. van Dorth, D., Cabrera-Pérez, I., D'Auria, L., Ortega-Ramos, V., Calderón-Delgado, M., de Armas-Rillo, S., López-Díaz, P., García-Hernández, R., Rodríguez, Ó., Álvarez-Hernández, A., and Pérez, N. M.: Polarization analysis of the seismic ambient noise in La Laguna Valley (Tenerife, Spain) and its relationship with the local seismic response, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9740, 2026.

EGU26-13214 | Posters on site | SM8.3

Estimating S-Wave Attenuation in Sediments by Deconvolution Analysis 

Gianlorenzo Franceschina and Alberto Tento

Seismic-wave attenuation in near-surface deposits is a key factor in site-effect modelling and local seismic hazard assessment. We investigate S-wave attenuation at station CTL8 of the Italian National Seismic Network, located in the Po Plain (northern Italy), by applying the borehole-to-surface deconvolution technique and comparing the results with estimates obtained using the kappa-based approach. The station is equipped with a surface accelerometer and a borehole velocimeter installed at 162 m depth, providing a suitable configuration for near-surface attenuation studies.

The analysed dataset consists of 109 pairs of surface and borehole recordings selected for their high signal-to-noise ratio, associated with local earthquakes with magnitudes between 3.0 and 5.8 and epicentral distances ranging from 36 to 256 km. Assuming predominantly vertical S-wave propagation between the borehole and the surface, identical time windows around the S-wave arrival were selected on the transverse component. The orientation of the borehole sensor was determined using tele-seismic events and corrected prior to the analysis.

Following the deconvolution procedure, up-going and down-going S-wave pulses were successfully isolated in the time domain. The spectral ratio between these pulses was used to estimate attenuation, yielding a surface-borehole kappa difference of Δκ162= (11.3 ± 1.1) ms. The time separation between the pulses also allowed the estimation of the time-averaged S-wave velocity between the borehole and the surface, resulting in Vs162 = (364 ± 7) m/s.

The results are consistent with previous estimates obtained at the same site using standard kappa-based methods and with synthetic deconvolution signals derived from a previously developed velocity profile. These findings indicate that borehole-to-surface deconvolution is a reliable and complementary tool for estimating near-surface attenuation and average S-wave velocity, provided that sufficient borehole depth and data quality allow a clear separation of the up-going and down-going wavefields.

How to cite: Franceschina, G. and Tento, A.: Estimating S-Wave Attenuation in Sediments by Deconvolution Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13214, 2026.

EGU26-13306 | ECS | Orals | SM8.3

Probabilistic Induced Seismicity Assessment (PISA): A THM-Coupled Sensitivity Analysis 

Sophie Decker, Mohammad Khasheei, Gregor Götzel, Thies Buchmann, Fabiola Boncecchio, Tao You, and Keita Yoshioka

The mitigation of seismic risk is a fundamental requirement for the successful development of geothermal projects. Fluid injection and extraction alter the subsurface stress field through pore pressure diffusion, poroelastic stressing, and thermal stressing. Historical cases, such as those in Basel (2006) and Pohang (2017), underscore the necessity for robust hazard assessment. However, predicting fault reactivation remains a challenge due to the complex interaction of thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes and inherent uncertainties in subsurface properties.

This study introduces PISA (Probabilistic Induced Seismicity Assessment), an open-source workflow developed to quantify these uncertainties. The tool integrates Gmsh for automated mesh generation and OpenGeoSys (OGS) for multi-physical simulations. Using a Design of Experiments (DoE) approach, we conduct a comprehensive sensitivity analysis involving 27 variable parameters to identify the key drivers for fault reactivation. The model is based on a simplified three-layer stratigraphy (overburden, aquifer, and underburden), focusing on a wide range of geomechanical and thermal properties, including initial stress state, Young’s modulus, Poisson’s ratio, Biot coefficient, specific heat capacity, and thermal expansivity.

The workflow simulates ten years of continuous injection and production within a fully coupled THM framework. A distinct methodological feature is the post-processing assessment of fault stability: fault planes are stochastically inserted into the simulated stress field, where the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion is applied to evaluate the destabilization of faults. This decoupling allows for a high-throughput screening of various geological scenarios. The primary objective is to identify which parameters, beyond operational variables such as flow rate and injection temperature, exert the greatest influence on fault stability, thereby enabling operators to prioritize critical subsurface characteristics during exploration prior to field development.

How to cite: Decker, S., Khasheei, M., Götzel, G., Buchmann, T., Boncecchio, F., You, T., and Yoshioka, K.: Probabilistic Induced Seismicity Assessment (PISA): A THM-Coupled Sensitivity Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13306, 2026.

Freestanding and rocking structural systems have long demonstrated remarkable seismic performance owing to their inherent rocking working principle such as self-centering capability and damage-avoidance behavior. In recent years, rocking-based isolation concepts have gained increasing attention in earthquake engineering as low-damage alternatives to conventional fixed-base systems. However, their seismic response remains strongly influenced by soil–structure interaction (SSI), impact phenomena, and near-fault ground motion characteristics, which can significantly affect stability and residual displacements.

This study aimed at exploring the potential role of hybrid soil–structure interaction mechanisms in altering the dynamic response of rocking systems. In particular, the combined influence of supplemental inertial effects and engineered soil layers, such as gravel–rubber mixture (GRM) foundations, is investigated from a conceptual and numerical perspective. These components are expected to alter the effective stiffness, damping, and energy dissipation characteristics of the soil–foundation–structure system, especially under pulse-type ground motions.

A simplified modeling framework is considered, in which rocking kinematics are coupled with soil compliance and additional inertial effects. Parametric numerical simulations are performed to investigate key response quantities, including uplift behavior, re-centering tendencies, and sensitivity to ground motion features and soil properties. The role of SSI in controlling rocking stability and modifying seismic demand is discussed.

The results provide insight into how hybrid soil and inerter-based mechanisms may enhance the seismic performance of rocking systems and highlight key parameters governing their effectiveness. The study aims to support future developments in performance-based design strategies for structures prone to rocking and soil-informed seismic isolation concepts, with potential relevance to both modern applications and the protection of freestanding structural systems.

How to cite: Toy, E.: Hybrid Soil–Structure Interaction Effects on Rocking Systems with Supplemental Inertial and Soil-Based Damping, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13340, 2026.

EGU26-13455 | ECS | Posters on site | SM8.3

Effects of subsurface heterogeneity on ground motion amplification in Groningen, the Netherlands 

Tarlan Khoveiledy, Islam Fadel, Ashok Dahal, and Mark van der Meijde

Gas extraction from the Groningen field has induced a substantial number of earthquakes that, despite their typically low magnitudes, produce notable ground motions at the surface due to their shallow depths of approximately 3 km. These ground motions pose risks to society and infrastructure. Therefore, an accurate ground motion simulation is essential for seismic hazard assessment. Previous studies have demonstrated that near-surface unconsolidated layers significantly influence ground motion amplification. However, less attention has been devoted to understanding the role of deeper structures. In the Groningen region, significant amplification and de-amplification effects are anticipated due to the complex subsurface, thickness variations across relatively short lateral distances, compositional heterogeneity within sedimentary sequences, and the presence of the Zechstein salt layer overlying the reservoir formation.

This study investigates how subsurface heterogeneity, both shallow and deep, affects seismic wave propagation and the corresponding ground motion observed at the surface. To analyze this, we employ 3D full waveform modeling using the spectral element method (SEM). First, to optimize mesh resolution, determined by the local S-wave velocity and the target design frequency, we conduct simulations across a range of frequencies and corresponding spatial resolutions to analyze their impact on wavefield accuracy and computational cost. Second, we simulate seismic wave propagation through a synthetic velocity model representative of the Groningen subsurface and compute Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for different earthquake scenarios using various Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) source solutions. Since amplification effects are highly location-dependent, we evaluate multiple earthquake scenarios with varying source characteristics and locations. We then compare these results with PGA values computed for a homogeneous half-space model that preserves the bulk elastic properties of the realistic heterogeneous model, using identical earthquake sources. This comparison produces amplification factor maps that reveal distinct spatial patterns of amplification and de-amplification across the study region. To isolate the contributions of individual factors, we examine the influence of source frequency, the depth and thickness of velocity layers, the presence of velocity inversions within the stratigraphic sequence, and subsurface interface topography.

These tests allow us to identify how each parameter contributes to the resulting amplification and de-amplification patterns. This framework can provide physical explanations for the spatial distribution of observed ground motion variations, offering valuable insights that are instrumental for current and future seismic hazard assessments in areas of subsurface resource exploitation throughout the Netherlands.

How to cite: Khoveiledy, T., Fadel, I., Dahal, A., and van der Meijde, M.: Effects of subsurface heterogeneity on ground motion amplification in Groningen, the Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13455, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13455, 2026.

EGU26-16008 | ECS | Orals | SM8.3

From Interseismic Coupling to Ground Motions: An Empirical Amplitude and Phase Approach for Megathrust Earthquake Simulations 

Javier Ojeda, Gonzalo Montalva, Maximiliano Osses-Valenzuela, Nicolás Bastías, Felipe Leyton, Pablo Heresi, Rosita Jünemann, and Sebastián Calderón

Time-dependent seismic hazard assessments require ground-motion models that capture source complexity, rupture timing, and the spatial variability of intensity measures, while remaining applicable to engineering practice. Here, we present a simulation framework that combines empirical models for the Effective Amplitude Spectrum (EAS) and the Group Delay Time (GDT) with physics-informed rupture scenarios to generate broadband ground-motion time histories for large interface earthquakes and potential future events based on interseismic coupling models. The empirical EAS and GDT models are derived from a curated strong-motion dataset from the Chilean subduction zone, encompassing relatively small events with magnitudes ranging from 4.6 to 7.0. To extend the approach to megathrust earthquakes, we adopt a rupture-decomposition strategy in which the total seismic moment is distributed among subevents with prescribed rupture and travel times. We first apply the framework to the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique, and 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquakes, using coseismic slip models and also interseismic coupling distributions, to examine whether coupling can serve as a proxy for earthquake ruptures. The observed-versus-predicted comparison of seismic intensities includes Fourier amplitudes, Arias intensity, pseudo-spectral acceleration ordinates, PGA, and PGV. Despite its relative simplicity, the approach reproduces the main amplitude and temporal characteristics of observed ground motions. Slip-based simulations tend to slightly overestimate shaking amplitudes, whereas coupling-based scenarios produce lower, more conservative ground motions while preserving realistic durations. Residual analyses show improved temporal coherence and spatial variability compared to commonly used predictive ground-motion models. In light of these results, we finally apply this approach to mature seismic gaps identified from geodetic coupling models along the Chilean margin, including the Atacama and Central Chile segments, last ruptured in 1922 (Mw~8.5) and 1730 (Mw~9.0), respectively. Simulations at virtual stations reveal high seismic intensities in densely populated cities such as Valparaíso and Santiago, underscoring the importance of integrating time-dependent exposure and vulnerability models to compute the seismic risk associated with the 1730-type scenario. These findings highlight the value of including coupling information into time-dependent ground-motion simulations and demonstrate how rupture timing and fault loading influence seismic hazard assessments. The proposed framework provides a physically consistent and engineering-relevant tool for seismic hazard analysis in subduction environments.

How to cite: Ojeda, J., Montalva, G., Osses-Valenzuela, M., Bastías, N., Leyton, F., Heresi, P., Jünemann, R., and Calderón, S.: From Interseismic Coupling to Ground Motions: An Empirical Amplitude and Phase Approach for Megathrust Earthquake Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16008, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16008, 2026.

EGU26-16063 | Posters on site | SM8.3

Optimising the Uttarakhand EEWS: A Hybrid Data and Next-Generation Algorithm Approach 

Sandeep Sandeep, Monika Monika, Pankaj Kumar, Nishtha Srivastava, Cyril Shaju, and Sural Kumar Pal

The Uttarakhand Himalaya, situated in the central seismic gap, is one of India’s most active earthquake zones. Although a state-specific Uttarakhand Earthquake Early Warning System (UEEWS) is currently operational, its dependence on generic magnitude scaling relations and the conventional STA/LTA algorithm for P-wave detection leaves room for enhancement in accuracy and speed—especially given the complex tectonic and site conditions of the Garhwal and Kumaon regions. This study presents a two-pronged strategy to strengthen the UEEWS. First, we develop region-specific magnitude scaling relations using a mixed dataset of observed and simulated seismograms, thereby reducing real-time magnitude estimation uncertainties by accounting for local attenuation and source properties. Second, we propose APPNA (Auto Picking of P-wave Onset using Next-Gen Algorithm), a novel computational method designed to improve onset detection accuracy, increase noise resilience, and reduce false triggers compared to the STA/LTA approach. Validated on both real and synthetic data, these advancements demonstrate that integrating tailored scaling relations with an improved picking algorithm can significantly optimize the performance of an earthquake early warning system in high-hazard regions. Our findings underscore the potential of leveraging UEEWS data, regionally calibrated relations, and innovative algorithms like APPNA to enhance the operational effectiveness of the Uttarakhand warning system

How to cite: Sandeep, S., Monika, M., Kumar, P., Srivastava, N., Shaju, C., and Pal, S. K.: Optimising the Uttarakhand EEWS: A Hybrid Data and Next-Generation Algorithm Approach, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16063, 2026.

Reliable shear-wave velocity (VS​) profiles and their quantified uncertainties are essential for the robust characterization of site conditions and the accurate interpretation of seismic waveforms. This study presents uncertainty-quantified VS​​ profiles extending from the surface to depths of approximately 1 km for 100 seismic strong-motion stations across the southern Korean Peninsula. At each site, active and passive surface-wave dispersion data were acquired via microtremor array measurements and multichannel analysis of surface waves, spanning a broad frequency range from ~1 to 10 Hz and ~5 to over 50 Hz, respectively. These datasets were jointly inverted using a trans-dimensional and hierarchical Bayesian framework, which treats the number of layers and dataset-specific error levels as unknown parameters. This approach yields an ensemble of VS​​ profiles for each station, which inherently captures depth-dependent uncertainties. From these ensembles, key seismic site parameters, including VS​30​, bedrock depth, and resonance frequency, were estimated with rigorous uncertainty bounds to construct a comprehensive site flatfile. The estimated profiles and parameters were validated against independent in-situ borehole data, showing high consistency within the quantified uncertainty intervals. Furthermore, we derived region-specific regression equations among the site parameters, facilitating the generation of high-resolution maps for site parameters and their associated uncertainties. These outputs provide a foundation for correcting site effects in seismic waveforms, refining site terms in ground-motion prediction equations, and supporting regional seismic hazard assessments.

How to cite: Jeon, Y. and Kim, S.: Uncertainty-Quantified VS​ Profiles for 100 Strong-Motion Stations and Regional Site-Parameter Maps in the Southern Korean Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16331, 2026.

EGU26-17735 | ECS | Posters on site | SM8.3

Comparative Evaluation of Machine-Learning Models and Recalibrated GMPEs for Ground-Motion Prediction 

Rimpy Taya, Himanshu Mittal, Atul Saini, and Rajiv Kumar

Accurate estimation of strong ground motion is important for seismic hazard assessment and for quickly evaluating earthquake impacts after an earthquake. In this study, data-driven ground-motion prediction models are developed using Japanese data to estimate peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), peak ground displacement (PGD), and spectral acceleration (SA) using machine-learning methods. Ensemble regression techniques, including Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), are trained using strong-motion records from the Kiban Kyoshin Network (KiK-net) and the Kyoshin Network (K-NET) collected between 1997 and
2025.
For comparison, PGA is also estimated using a conventional ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE). The functional form of Shoushtari et al. (2018) is adopted, and its coefficients are recalibrated using the same Japan dataset. The data are divided into training, validation, and testing sets, and model performance is evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and logarithmic residuals. Additional analyses, such as observed-versus-predicted comparisons and residual trends with distance, magnitude, focal depth, and VS30, are carried out to assess model behavior and identify possible biases.
The Random Forest model shows performance comparable to the recalibrated GMPE, suggesting that both approaches effectively capture the key effects of magnitude, distance, and site conditions on ground motion in Japan. Although the overall accuracy is similar, machine-learning models provide added advantages, including data-adaptive learning, stable residual patterns, and flexibility in predicting multiple ground-motion parameters. Therefore, machine learning can be considered a useful complementary approach that improves the robustness and applicability of ground-motion prediction for seismic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Taya, R., Mittal, H., Saini, A., and Kumar, R.: Comparative Evaluation of Machine-Learning Models and Recalibrated GMPEs for Ground-Motion Prediction, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17735, 2026.

EGU26-18842 | Posters on site | SM8.3

Active Faulting in Southeastern Spain: New Evidence from the Seismic Characterization of the Alhama de Murcia Fault 

Diana Núñez, Diana Roman, Carmen Martínez, Diego Córdoba, Rubén Carrillo, and José Fernández

The Alhama de Murcia Fault (AMF), located in southeastern Spain, is one of the most active and hazardous fault systems in the region due to its elevated tectonic activity and its capacity to generate damaging earthquakes. The most recent significant event, the 11 May 2011 Lorca earthquake (Mw 5.1), resulted in nine fatalities, numerous injuries, and substantial material losses. While some authors interpret this earthquake as a purely natural occurrence, others suggest that its rupture may have been influenced by crustal unloading processes associated with groundwater extraction, potentially affecting the timing of the event. This debate underscores the importance of distinguishing between natural and induced seismicity in regions with high societal vulnerability.

Previous studies on the AMF have focused on its structural characteristics, seismic activity, and hazard potential through various methodologies, including paleoseismology and satellite data. However, integrated multidisciplinary analyses remain limited.

As a part of the MADRIZ project, this study aims to advance the seismic characterization of the AMF by compiling and reanalyzing seismic data from the nearest stations of the Spanish National Seismic Network, accessible through the EPOS Data Portal, together with open-access data from additional seismic networks that operate in the region. By applying both one-dimensional and three-dimensional location methods in conjunction with digital waveform analysis, we obtain highly precise hypocentral locations. These solutions form the basis for calculating focal mechanisms to better constrain the geometry and kinematics of active faults in the study area.

This integrated approach provides new insights into the seismic behavior of the AMF, contributing to the ongoing discussion on the interplay between natural tectonic processes and potential anthropogenic influences, and ultimately supporting more refined seismic hazard assessments for southeastern Spain.

How to cite: Núñez, D., Roman, D., Martínez, C., Córdoba, D., Carrillo, R., and Fernández, J.: Active Faulting in Southeastern Spain: New Evidence from the Seismic Characterization of the Alhama de Murcia Fault, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18842, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18842, 2026.

EGU26-20333 | ECS | Orals | SM8.3

Source Parameters, Attenuation Characteristics and Site Effects Derived From The Non-Parametric Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT) For The MW 8.8 Maule Aftershock Sequence 

Rodrigo Flores Allende, Léonard Seydoux, Luis FabIán Bonilla, Dino Bindi, Eric Beaucé, and Philippe Gueguen

Ground motion records combine source, path, and site effects, and isolating them remains difficult, especially for small earthquakes. We apply a non-parametric generalized inversion technique (GIT) of S-wave spectra to the 2010 MW 8.8 Maule aftershock sequence in south-central Chile. The dataset includes about 7,000 events with ML 2.0–6.5 recorded over approximately ten months. To capture spatial variability across the broad rupture, we perform the inversion in local clusters of ~400 events. This strategy preserves lateral and depth heterogeneity and reduces bias from region-wide simplifications in the path and site terms. From the inverted source spectra we estimate seismic moment, corner frequency, stress drop, source kappa, and evaluate depth dependence and self-similarity. Preliminary results indicate an average stress drop of ~0.85 MPa, with weak depth dependence but higher values for larger events, suggesting a scaling with seismic moment. The mean source kappa is about 0.019 s. Path terms provide a frequency-dependent attenuation factor Q(f), while site terms yield frequency-dependent amplification functions that we compare with horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratios. We invert clusters independently, then merge the recovered source, path, and site terms into a single region-wide ensemble to verify consistency across cluster boundaries.

How to cite: Flores Allende, R., Seydoux, L., Bonilla, L. F., Bindi, D., Beaucé, E., and Gueguen, P.: Source Parameters, Attenuation Characteristics and Site Effects Derived From The Non-Parametric Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT) For The MW 8.8 Maule Aftershock Sequence, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20333, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20333, 2026.

EGU26-20513 | ECS | Orals | SM8.3

Understanding nonlinear ground response using air-to-ground wave interactions from explosions; an example from Mt. Etna, Sicily. 

Sergio Diaz-Meza, Nicolas Celli, Philippe Jousset, Gilda Currenti, and Charlotte M. Krawczyk

The near-surface can exhibit complex, nonlinear behavior when seismic wavefields interact with unconsolidated materials. Traditional linear site-effect models often fail to explain amplitude-dependent ground response, highlighting the need to resolve the physical mechanisms that control nonlinear processes. Improving this understanding is essential for predicting near-surface behavior during strong ground motions and other seismo-acoustic sources.

Here, we investigate the mechanism of nonlinear ground response using volcanic explosions at Mt. Etna (Sicily) as a natural laboratory. We deployed a multi-parameter network near the summit craters, consisting of broadband seismometers, infrasound sensors, and a buried fiber-optic cable at 30 cm depth for distributed dynamic strain sensing (DDSS). The observatiosn show how aereal explosion waves from Etna’s main vents couple into shallow, unconsolidated scoria deposits. The coupling generates a characteristic ground response signal marked by an amplification of emergent high-frequency energy (10–50 Hz) embedded by the predominantly low-frequency (<10 Hz) explosion waves.

To mechanically characterise the near surface under nonlinear excitation, we compiled a catalog of more than 8,000 volcanic explosions. We analise the relationship between peak-to-peak stress-rate amplitudes measured from infrasound recordings of the explosions, and peak-to-peak strain-rate amplitudes of the associated ground response measured with DDSS. This relationship reveals an hyperelastic behavior of the scoria deposits, expressed by three distinct, consecutive elastic stages: (i) semi-linear elasticity, (ii) softening, and (iii) subsequent stiffening.

The resulting hyperelastic curves allow us to estimate key nonlinear elastic parameters, to model the nonlinearity of the scoria using a lattice mesh. Wave-propagation simulations using this constitutive description reproduce the observed ground response at Mt. Etna. We further validate the approach by modeling explosion–ground interactions for events in which nonlinear ground response is not observed, using the same nonlinear material properties. Our results demonstrate that strain-rate measurements can be used to derive nonlinear near-surface properties of complex geomaterials. Such approach enables an improved modeling of ground behavior that cannot be captured by linear site-effect approaches.

How to cite: Diaz-Meza, S., Celli, N., Jousset, P., Currenti, G., and Krawczyk, C. M.: Understanding nonlinear ground response using air-to-ground wave interactions from explosions; an example from Mt. Etna, Sicily., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20513, 2026.

EGU26-398 | ECS | Posters on site | SM8.4

 Combined Geophysical Approaches for Urban Subsurface Exploration: A Case Study from Messina, Italy 

Malik Adam Alddoum Adam, Sebastiano DAmico, Domenica De Domenico, Francesco Panzera, Debora Presti, Silivia scolaro, and Cristina Totaro

In this study, we performed integrated geophysical surveys in the historical center of Messina, focusing on the area surrounding the Cathedral, where urban stratigraphy is strongly influenced by both natural and anthropogenic processes. The city of Messina, southern Italy, is characterized by high seismic hazard and complex near-surface conditions. Messina has been repeatedly struck by destructive earthquakes over the last centuries, most notably the M7.1 event of 1908, which caused near-total destruction. Reconstructions following these earthquakes generated thick and laterally non-uniform anthropogenic deposits (rubble and debris) that, combined with vertically heterogeneous stratigraphy, might pose significant challenges for accurate subsurface characterization and site response analysis. Ambient noise data were analyzed using the Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio technique to estimate fundamental resonance frequencies and delineate major impedance contrasts. Results from HVSR measurements revealed a predominant fundamental resonance peak around 1.0 Hz, with amplitude factors between 4–6, consistent with the impedance contrast between alluvial sediments and the underlying metamorphic basement.

To examine the spatial distribution, the HVSR data were organized along five survey profiles. The corresponding two-dimensional cross-sections were generated by interpolating more than five HVSR measurements for each profile. In addition, high-frequency peaks (>30 Hz) were detected and mapped laterally for more than 40 m, strongly suggesting the presence of heterogeneous anthropogenic layers formed after the 1908 earthquake, highlighting the significant role of shallow debris deposits in conditioning site response.

Active and passive surface-wave methods, including Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW), Extended Spatial Autocorrelation (ESAC) and (f-k) approaches, were employed to retrieve shear-wave velocity profiles at different depths. MASW results identify a 2–3 m low-Vs layer (150–200 m/s) overlying 350–450 m/s alluvial deposits, while array analyses (ESAC, f-k) extend the investigation depth to ~60 m. Joint HVSR–dispersion inversion constrains the main impedance contrast at 90–100 m, marking the transition to the metamorphic basement. Differences between MASW and joint inversion models highlight the importance of multi-method approaches when anthropogenic stratigraphy is present.

The joint analysis allowed the identification of key stratigraphic interfaces, the recognition of laterally variable anthropogenic fills and deposits, and the estimation of the main discontinuities within the uppermost layers. Importantly, the 2D HVSR cross-sections enabled mapping lateral variations in resonance frequencies, highlighting the spatial extent of post-1908 anthropogenic deposits. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of a multi-method approach in resolving shallow subsurface complexity in highly urbanized areas.

 

How to cite: Adam Alddoum Adam, M., DAmico, S., De Domenico, D., Panzera, F., Presti, D., scolaro, S., and Totaro, C.:  Combined Geophysical Approaches for Urban Subsurface Exploration: A Case Study from Messina, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-398, 2026.

The National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED) has created a shallow and deep integrated ground structure model (SD model) covering approximately one-third of Japan's land area for broadband strong ground motion evaluation. A portion of this model was released by Hedquater Eerthquake Reserch Promotion(HERP) and J-SHIS in March 2021. To create this ground model, over one million borehole data points have been collected and organized nationwide to date. Microtremor array observations and analysis have been conducted at approximately 60,000 locations spaced about 1 km apart (grid cells). Ground amplification coefficients based on AVS30, used to estimate ground amplification within Japan, are primarily calculated from PS logging results at seismic observation points operated by NIED, namely K-NET and KiK-net. However, K-NET has not conducted borehole surveys deeper than 20m in practice, and while KiK-net performs PS logging at depths exceeding 100m, the accuracy of near-surface stratigraphic data is not high. This study aims to verify the accuracy of AVS30-based amplification coefficients using the ground model and to achieve high-precision estimation of amplification coefficients without PS logging. To achieve this objective, microtremor array surveys (small-scale arrays) were conducted at approximately 2,500 sites distributed across K-NET, KiK-net, Japan Meteorological Agency, and municipal seismic observation points. Based on the S-wave velocity structure obtained from microtremor array observations at the aforementioned 60,000 sites, the relationship between AVS30 and ground amplification coefficients was evaluated.

How to cite: senna, S.: Study on Ground Amplification Characteristics Based on the Microtremor Observation Database in Japan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2052, 2026.

EGU26-5355 | Posters on site | SM8.4

Effect of a Strong Lateral Discontinuity on Translational and Rotational Motion – Comprehensive Analysis in the Time, Frequency and Time-frequency Domains 

Peter Moczo, Pierre-Yves Bard, Niloufar Babaadam, Jozef Kristek, Miriam Kristekova, and Martin Galis

Ground-shaking site effects cause localized anomalous macroseismic effects and are often responsible for the greatest damage observed during earthquakes and great loss of life. The best known are effects in surface sedimentary layers, sedimentary basins and valleys.

Less known and thus less investigated are specific site effects such as those related to lateral boundaries of sedimentary layers or sudden changes of the thickness of sedimentary layers. Pioneering numerical-modelling studies by Moczo and Bard (1993) and Kawase (1996) indicated interesting and important phenomena in the semi-infinite horizontal layers for the SH motion and P-SV motion, respectively, in relation to observed macroseismic effects.

We present a unified analysis of seismic motions due to incidence of plane SH, SV and P waves, by investigating simultaneously the translational motion, rotational motion and axial strain rate in the time, frequency and time-frequency domains. We pay a special attention to the effect of damping by considering frequency-independent as well as frequency-dependent attenuation in the sediment layer. We identify the main anomalous characteristics of seismic motion at the free surface of the sediment layer. Receivers located at short distances from the discontinuity undergo significantly larger translational motion than predicted by the local 1D response, and large rotational motion and axial strain rates. At longer distances (up to forty times the layer thickness), significant deviations from the pure 1D behaviour can be seen especially on the rotational motion and axial strain rate, and on the duration of translational motion as well.

How to cite: Moczo, P., Bard, P.-Y., Babaadam, N., Kristek, J., Kristekova, M., and Galis, M.: Effect of a Strong Lateral Discontinuity on Translational and Rotational Motion – Comprehensive Analysis in the Time, Frequency and Time-frequency Domains, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5355, 2026.

EGU26-5589 | Posters on site | SM8.4

Time-frequency Transfer Function – A New Tool for Modelling and Analysing Site Effects 

Miriam Kristekova, Peter Moczo, Jozef Kristek, Niloufar Babaadam, Pierre-Yves Bard, and Martin Galis

Standard Fourier transfer function (modulus of the complex Fourier transfer function) is widely accepted and used for both theoretical/numerical analyses and analyses of real recordings, especially for identifying resonance peaks and/or the amplified frequency bands. This is because it characterizes (linear, time-invariant) transfer properties of the medium between a source and receiver in the frequency domain. Being, however, just an amplitude Fourier spectrum of the time-domain impulse response, it cannot alone provide any information on temporal development of the response, that is, the temporal distribution of the different reverberations that cause amplifications, and therefore on their origin.

However, it is reasonable to assume that the missing information could be useful for interpreting complicated resulting motions in local surface structures because they are often due to multiple wave reflections and transmissions, conversions, interference, diffraction, scattering and resonance.

Therefore, we introduce a new tool for analysing seismic response including its temporal development – a time-frequency transfer function, TFTF, based on the continuous wavelet transform of the impulse response. Modulus of TFTF provides information on the temporal development of frequency-dependent amplification and its duration, linking amplified frequency bands to specific arrivals and reverberation trains rather than to spectral peaks alone.

We present numerical examples for several sedimentary structures close to pure 1D layers, proving that TFTF is much more informative than the standard Fourier transfer function: in particular, it allows to identify late arrivals and long-lasting reverberations, providing a deeper insight on their physical origin.

How to cite: Kristekova, M., Moczo, P., Kristek, J., Babaadam, N., Bard, P.-Y., and Galis, M.: Time-frequency Transfer Function – A New Tool for Modelling and Analysing Site Effects, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5589, 2026.

EGU26-5799 * | Posters on site | SM8.4 | Highlight

Theoretical Modeling of Secondary Microseisms Considering Source and Receiver Site Structures 

Eleonore Stutzmann, Zongbo Xu, Véronique Farra, Devapriyan Devapriyan, and Wayne Crawford

The continuous Earth’s seismic wave field is predominantly generated in the oceans through nonlinear interactions of ocean surface gravity waves. Using pressure sources close to the ocean surface derived from state-of-the-art ocean-wave model, we simulate secondary microseim surface waves.  Previous modeling approaches accounted only for an ocean layer of variable thickness overlying a homogeneous half-space at each source location.  Here, we incorporate spatially varying 1-D velocity models from CRUST1.0 at both source and receiver locations. Within this framework, we derive analytical expressions for source and receiver site coefficients that depend solely on local velocity model. Our results show that ocean-bottom sediments can strongly modulate the excitation and amplification of SM Rayleigh waves —by up to a factor 100— consistent with the observations. We further demonstrate that our modeling is valid for frequencies below 0.2 Hz; at higher frequencies, the contribution of Scholte modes must be taken into account to avoid misidentifications of surface wave modes. Finally, we show that this new modeling approach accurately reproduces SM amplitudes recorded both at the ocean bottom and on land.

How to cite: Stutzmann, E., Xu, Z., Farra, V., Devapriyan, D., and Crawford, W.: Theoretical Modeling of Secondary Microseisms Considering Source and Receiver Site Structures, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5799, 2026.

EGU26-6515 | Posters on site | SM8.4

Assessing the impact of noise source directivity and 3D basin structure on ambient seismic H/V ratios using numerical modelling 

David Gregor, Emmanuel Chaljub, Marc Wathelet, Fabrice Hollender, Vincent Perron, and Florent de Martin

Ambient seismic noise H/V spectral ratios are widely applied in the assessment of local site effects, particularly in sedimentary basins, yet their reliability can be compromised in the presence of strong lateral heterogeneity and non-uniform noise source distributions. Disentangling these contributions remains a key challenge for the interpretation of H/V measurements in complex geological settings. In this study, we use three-dimensional numerical modelling to investigate how basin structure and ambient noise source characteristics jointly control H/V amplitude and polarization.

The work is motivated by pronounced temporal variability observed in long-term H/V measurements at a station in the Mygdonian sedimentary basin (northern Greece), including strong changes in amplitude and polarization and occasional shifts in the dominant frequency. The station is located above a blind fault that separates a shallow northern basin from a deeper southern basin, making it a suitable test case for studying site effects in a laterally heterogeneous environment. We compute 3D viscoelastic Green’s functions for a simplified yet geologically representative basin model and exploit source–receiver reciprocity to simulate ambient seismic wavefields for a range of spatially variable surface noise source distributions.

Synthetic H/V ratios are analyzed at receivers located on both sides of the fault to evaluate the sensitivity of site-response indicators to structural contrasts and source directivity. The simulations show that lateral heterogeneities associated with basin geometry and faulting significantly affect H/V amplitudes and polarization patterns, with the strongest effects observed near the fault zone and within the deeper basin. Variations in the spatial distribution of noise sources are identified as a first-order control on H/V measurements and can apparent spatial or temporal variations that mimic structural effects. In particular, sources located in the shallow basin preferentially excite surface waves trapped in the upper layers that propagate toward the deeper basin, imprinting the shallow basin signature on deep basin H/V ratios, while the reciprocal effect is not observed.

Polarization analysis reveals systematic differences across the fault, with preferred orientations generally parallel to the fault trace in the deep basin and perpendicular in the shallow basin, reflecting the underlying structural control. However, strongly directional noise sources can partially obscure this signature, underlining the need for caution when interpreting polarization results based on short time windows of H/V ratios. Finally, comparison with elastic Diffuse Field Theory (DFT) shows reasonable agreement near the H/V peak frequency for isotropic source distributions, but significant deviations arise in the presence of attenuation and strong lateral contrasts. These findings demonstrate the importance of 3D numerical simulations in separating the effects of source distribution and basin structure on H/V measurements, and emphasize the benefit of extended, spatially dense ambient noise monitoring in complex geological settings.

How to cite: Gregor, D., Chaljub, E., Wathelet, M., Hollender, F., Perron, V., and de Martin, F.: Assessing the impact of noise source directivity and 3D basin structure on ambient seismic H/V ratios using numerical modelling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6515, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6515, 2026.

EGU26-16108 | ECS | Posters on site | SM8.4

Analysis of Shallow Velocity Characteristics Using Vs Inversion Constrained by Seismic Reflection 

Yu-Wei Juan and Chun-Hsiang Kuo

Understanding how seismic waves propagate through the subsurface is crucial for evaluating potential impacts on buildings and infrastructure. Velocity profiles provide essential information for seismic hazard mitigation, including estimation of average shear-wave velocity (i.e., VS30), assessment of nonlinear site effects, and numerical wave propagation simulations. These profiles can be obtained using various techniques, such as P-S logging, multiple-channel analysis of surface waves (MASW), and microtremor array analysis. However, differences in resolution and investigation depth among these methods can complicate their integration for geophysical and engineering applications.

In this study, we combine results derived from seismic reflection and microtremor array measurements (MAMs) to construct layered velocity models. Layered P-wave velocity (Vp) profiles are derived from seismic-reflection velocity analysis. The Dix equation is used to convert root-mean-square velocities into interval velocities for each layer. The depths of P-wave velocity interfaces are then used as constraints for S-wave velocity (Vs) inversion, performed using the software HV-Inv (García-Jerez et al., 2016). Monte Carlo sampling and the simplex downhill method are employed to generate ensembles of Vs, Vp, and density profiles, which are evaluated by Rayleigh-wave phase-velocity dispersion curves inversion.

The resulting layered Vp and Vs models enable investigation of the relationships between Vp, Vs, Vp/Vs, and Poisson’s ratio, as well as the factors controlling the variations in the shallow subsurface. These studies aim to provide a robust framework for integrating P-wave and S-wave velocity profiles to characterize shallow seismic site conditions.

How to cite: Juan, Y.-W. and Kuo, C.-H.: Analysis of Shallow Velocity Characteristics Using Vs Inversion Constrained by Seismic Reflection, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16108, 2026.

EGU26-21990 | ECS | Posters on site | SM8.4

Assessment of Seismic Site Effects in Aachen (Germany) to Support Seismic Microzonation: Geophysical Observations and Numerical Modeling 

Farkhod Hakimov, Jochen Hürtgen, Hans-Balder Havenith, and Klaus Reicherter

Accurate assessment of seismic hazard in urban areas requires a detailed characterization of local site effects controlled by near-surface geology, stratigraphy, and tectonic structures. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of seismic site conditions in the central part of Aachen (Germany), conducted to support future seismic microzonation, and covering an area of approximately 5 × 5 km², with particular focus on the previously underexplored southeastern, southwestern, and northeastern districts.
The investigation integrates a large multidisciplinary dataset, including 450 ambient noise horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) measurements, six microtremor array measurements (MAM) for shear-wave velocity (Vs) profiling, six electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) profiles for stratigraphic validation, and information from 175 geotechnical boreholes. The primary objectives were to characterize the spatial distribution of fundamental resonance frequency (f₀), site amplification effects, and Vs₃₀ values, which represent key input parameters for seismic hazard assessment and seismic microzonation studies.
Special emphasis was placed on the joint use of Rayleigh- and Love-wave dispersion curves and Rayleigh-wave ellipticity inversion to improve subsurface resolution at low frequencies (<1 Hz), allowing a more reliable estimation of sediment thickness and deep impedance contrasts. Along a southwest–northeast-oriented cross-section (A–A′), intersecting major tectonic features such as the Laurensberg Fault, 30 additional HVSR measurements reveal a strong correlation between f₀ variations, sedimentary geometry, and dynamic soil properties.
To investigate seismic wave propagation effects, two 2D numerical dynamic models were developed along cross-section A–A′. Profile 1 explicitly incorporates the Laurensberg Fault, constrained by HVSR results and geological data, whereas Profile 2 neglects fault structures to isolate their influence on seismic ground motion. Model results were validated using a 2D standard spectral ratio (SSR) analysis and systematically compared with HVSR observations along the same profile. This comparison enables the identification of peak ground acceleration (PGA) patterns, amplification zones, and fault-controlled energy redistribution effects.
The results demonstrate that local site response in Aachen is strongly influenced by both sedimentary structure and fault geometry, emphasizing the importance of accounting for tectonic features in site-effect studies, even in regions of moderate seismicity. The outcomes of this study provide a robust geophysical basis to support seismic microzonation efforts, future 3D numerical simulations, and seismic-informed urban planning in the Aachen urban area.

How to cite: Hakimov, F., Hürtgen, J., Havenith, H.-B., and Reicherter, K.: Assessment of Seismic Site Effects in Aachen (Germany) to Support Seismic Microzonation: Geophysical Observations and Numerical Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21990, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21990, 2026.

EGU26-22169 | Posters on site | SM8.4

Site characteristics of TSMIP strong-motion stations in Taiwan using the Horizontal‐to‐Vertical Spectral Ratio method 

Che-Min Lin, Chun-Hsiang Kuo, and Jyun-Yan Huang

The free-field strong earthquake stations of the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrument Program (TSMIP), distributed throughout Taiwan, have provided rich and high-quality seismic data over the years. Its data indirectly enhances Taiwan's earthquake-prevention and disaster-reduction capabilities. Due to the importance of seismic site effects in the research of strong-ground motion, the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE) cooperated with the Central Weathering Administration (CWA) to carry out the Engineering Geological Database for TSMIP (EGDT) containing three site parameters, including Vs30, Z1.0, and κ0, and site classification. However, the CWA gradually renewed TSMIP stations since 2017, leading to the establishment and elimination of some stations. The new stations lack any earthquake site characteristics or classification information, which will make future research and the application of various strong earthquakes difficult. Besides, while Taiwan has produced numerous site characteristic studies based on microtremor or earthquake HVSR analysis, a comprehensive and systematic study of HVSR site characteristics for TSMIP strong-motion stations has been lacking. This study uses continuous seismic data from the GDMS-2020 database of CWA to extract seismic ambient noise and earthquake data for assessing site characteristics and the predominant frequencies of each TSMIP station using HVSR analysis. By establishing representative HVSRs for different site classifications using stations with well-known site parameters, we evaluated the site classifications of new stations without site information. Finally, an HVSR site database of the new TSMIP network is established and comprehensively discussed.

How to cite: Lin, C.-M., Kuo, C.-H., and Huang, J.-Y.: Site characteristics of TSMIP strong-motion stations in Taiwan using the Horizontal‐to‐Vertical Spectral Ratio method, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22169, 2026.

SM9 – Co-organized Sessions

EGU26-2082 | ECS | Orals | EMRP1.3

Illuminating Fluid-Induced Fault Reactivation: Laboratory Insights into Injection-Rate Control on Slip Evolution and Seismic Nucleation 

Federico Pignalberi, Julian Osten, Paul Selvadurai, Elena Spagnuolo, Mohammadreza Jalali, and Florian Amann

Understanding how fluid injection perturbs stressed faults and triggers induced seismicity has become an urgent challenge in geophysics and hazard mitigation. Observations from subsurface fluid injection associated with geoenergy exploitation show that variations in injection pressure and rate and injected volume can strongly modulate seismicity rates and magnitudes. Yet, comparable injection operations may result in stable creep, slow slip, or dynamic rupture, highlighting persistent gaps in our understanding of the physical processes governing fluid-driven fault reactivation.

Here, we investigate fluid-induced fault reactivation through decimetric-scale laboratory experiments on granite samples containing a 45° precut fault. Experiments are conducted in a biaxial apparatus under critically stressed conditions at 3 MPa normal stress, with independent control of normal and shear stresses. Fluids are injected directly into the fault surface while fault slip is measured using fibre-optic sensors (mini-SIMFIP) installed across the fault. Seismic activity is monitored through passive acoustic emission recordings, and repeated active ultrasonic surveys are performed throughout the experiments to track wave velocity changes and map fluid diffusion along the fault.

By systematically varying the injection rate, we observe a clear transition from aseismic creep to slow slip and dynamic rupture. In all cases, fault slip nucleates at the injection point and subsequently propagates within the pressurized region of the fault. High injection rates generate localized overpressure near the injection point, triggering abrupt and seismic fault reactivation. During high-rate injection, we observe a pronounced drop in P-wave velocity, indicating strong mechanical perturbation of the fault zone, followed by a progressive velocity increase as fluids diffuse along the fault. In contrast, low injection rates lead to stable, aseismic slip confined to the pressurized zone, while intermediate rates produce a progressive reactivation sequence in which slip initiates aseismically, evolves into slow slip, and eventually transitions to dynamic rupture as the pressurized region expands.

Our results show that injection rate governs fault slip behavior by controlling where slip nucleates and whether it remains confined to, or propagates beyond, the pressurized zone and accelerates dynamically.

How to cite: Pignalberi, F., Osten, J., Selvadurai, P., Spagnuolo, E., Jalali, M., and Amann, F.: Illuminating Fluid-Induced Fault Reactivation: Laboratory Insights into Injection-Rate Control on Slip Evolution and Seismic Nucleation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2082, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2082, 2026.

EGU26-2718 | ECS | Posters on site | EMRP1.3

Development of hydrothermal high-velocity rotary shear apparatus in Kochi, Japan: towards understanding fault slip behavior in the seismogenic zone environment 

Hanaya Okuda, Wataru Tanikawa, Yohei Hamada, Keishi Okazaki, John Bedford, Miku Hidaka, and Takehiro Hirose

In Kochi, JAMSTEC, Japan, we have developed rotary shear apparatuses to understand fault slip behavior of geologic materials at coseismic slip rates. However, coseismic fault behavior under hydrothermal conditions has remained challenging to reproduce in the laboratory. To address this issue, we developed a novel apparatus (HDR: hydrothermal rotary shear apparatus) in 2017, which is capable of high-velocity slip (~2 m/s) at temperatures of up to 600 ℃ and pore fluid pressures of up to 120 MPa. Using this apparatus, we have successfully carried out hydrothermal high-velocity friction experiments on various types of materials, including bare gabbro surfaces and gouges derived from quartz, gabbro, granite, olivine, calcite, and clay minerals under a wide range of pressure-temperature-velocity conditions. The experimental data obtained under hydrothermal conditions are sometimes markedly different from those typically observed in room-temperature experiments due to dynamic changes in fluid properties and chemical reactions in supercritical water. Further understanding of coupled interactions between fault slip, frictional heat, fluid properties, chemical reactions, etc. under hydrothermal conditions will be essential for constraining fault slip behavior in seismogenic-zone settings. In this presentation, we introduce some of our latest results obtained using HDR.

How to cite: Okuda, H., Tanikawa, W., Hamada, Y., Okazaki, K., Bedford, J., Hidaka, M., and Hirose, T.: Development of hydrothermal high-velocity rotary shear apparatus in Kochi, Japan: towards understanding fault slip behavior in the seismogenic zone environment, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2718, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2718, 2026.

EGU26-3257 | ECS | Posters on site | EMRP1.3

Thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical modeling of synthetic wet gouges sheared at experimental seismic slip under fluid drainage conditions 

Yu-Qing Huang, Li-Wei Kuo, Chien-Cheng Hung, and Thi Trinh Nguyen

Understanding dynamic weakening is of paramount importance because it involves thermally triggered physical-chemical processes that reduce the fault frictional resistance and facilitate earthquake propagation. Investigating the evolution of temperature (T), pore fluid pressure (Pf), and chemical reactions during slip therefore allows exploration of dynamic weakening mechanisms. However, direct in situ measurements of T and Pf within slip zones remain technologically challenging in laboratory high-velocity rotary shear experiments. Consequently, numerical simulations constrained by mechanical data are essential for inferring these critical parameters. We utilize a series of rotary-shear mechanical data on a combination of kaolinite and quartz. The experiments are conducted under undrained/drained conditions with thermocouples for temperature measurements. On the basis of these data, we develop a Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC) modeling framework using COMSOL Multiphysics to estimate physical conditions within the Principal Slip Zone (PSZ) and to infer dynamic weakening mechanisms responsible for the observed frictional behavior. Under undrained conditions, the friction coefficient (µ) reaches a peak friction (µp) at ~0.28 and undergoes abrupt weakening, followed by a steady-state low-friction (µs) at ~0.1. This behavior corresponds to a measured T stabilizing at 320–360°C and a simulated Pf rapidly increasing and is maintained at ~2.4 MPa. It suggests that frictional heating induces pore water pressurization. Under drained conditions, µ reaches a µp ~0.3 at 0.7s and undergoes abrupt weakening during 1.2-1.7s, maintains µs ~0.17 between 2-4s and followed by a re-strengthening behavior at 4s. µ was accompanied by the changes of T and Pf. T increased to ~280°C at 1.2s, followed by a decrease to ~200°C. Meanwhile, the simulated Pf achieved the highest value (~1.9 MPa) at 1.2s and gradually decreased and reached a relatively lowest value (~0.3 MPa) at 4s due to the pore fluid drainage. Whether Pf is present is corresponding to the weakening and re-strengthening times. In addition, microstructural and mineralogical observations show thermal decomposition of kaolinite. Because thermal decomposition is a strong endothermic reaction, the temperature decreases during the later stages of the process due to the thermal decomposition of kaolinite. We suggest that thermal pressurization operates as the dynamic weakening mechanism during the initial slip stage, consistent with theoretical predictions and experimental documentation of thermal pressurization during rapid shear, as described by Rice (2006) and Ferri et al. (2010). Later, thermal pressurization ceases under drained conditions, resulting in complex frictional behavior. In general, our study provides essential insights into the dynamic weakening mechanism during experimental seismic slip. In addition, we suggest that drainage conditions may influence frictional behavior by affecting the generation and maintenance of pore fluid pressure during seismic slip.

How to cite: Huang, Y.-Q., Kuo, L.-W., Hung, C.-C., and Nguyen, T. T.: Thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical modeling of synthetic wet gouges sheared at experimental seismic slip under fluid drainage conditions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3257, 2026.

EGU26-4224 | ECS | Posters on site | EMRP1.3

Mechanisms of failure in a fluid-saturated fault gouge subject to cyclic pore-pressure oscillations 

Pritom Sarma, Stanislav Parez, Renaud Toussaint, and Einat Aharonov

While dynamic fluctuations in effective normal stress affecting fault zones are ubiquitous, arising from both complex natural phenomena like remote dynamic triggering of earthquakes and anthropogenic activities like industrial subsurface fluid injection, the precise influence of these perturbations and specifically their frequencies, on the macroscopic fault strength remains insufficiently characterized.The frequency of these pore-pressure variations is likely a key factor setting the timescale for the drained-to-undrained transition, thereby driving markedly different mechanical responses.

In this work, we present results from a coupled hydromechanical-discrete element model simulating a pre-stressed, fully saturated granular fault gouge subject to cyclic pore-pressure variations across three orders of magnitude in frequency. We observe that fault failure consistently occurs before the system reaches the traditional Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. This early failure indicates that additional dynamic mechanisms, often neglected in effective stress analyses, play a dominant role in triggering instability. We investigate the driving forces responsible for this pre-Mohr-Coulomb failure and find they evolve distinctly with frequency. We evaluate three primary candidates driving this behavior: 1) seepage forces arising from the pore-pressure gradients, 2) contact weakening induced by granular agitation (vibration), and 3) inertial effects driven by acceleration from cyclic pore-pressurization. Our analysis isolates the contribution of each mechanism across the frequency spectrum, offering a new physical basis for understanding why dynamic pore-pressure perturbations can trigger slip earlier than what static friction laws predict.

How to cite: Sarma, P., Parez, S., Toussaint, R., and Aharonov, E.: Mechanisms of failure in a fluid-saturated fault gouge subject to cyclic pore-pressure oscillations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4224, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4224, 2026.

EGU26-6001 | ECS | Orals | EMRP1.3

A Multi-Scale Approach to Fault-Valve Systems and Their Evolution 

Oussama Larkem, Luc Scholtès, and Fabrice Golfier

Cyclic fluid injection can promote repeated fault reactivation and transient permeability changes, a behavior often discussed within the fault-valve concept where faults alternate between acting as hydraulic barriers and conduits. Such cycles are relevant to both natural hydrothermal systems and industrial activities that modify pore pressure in the subsurface.

The complex evolution of fault permeability and strength during and after fault reactivation calls for a more complete description of the underlying physical processes. Current state-of-the-art fault reactivation models generally represent these weakening and strengthening mechanisms at the macroscopic scale using phenomenological laws, such as the widely used rate-and-state framework. Although these formulations have proven successful in reproducing some observed fault behaviors, they rely on empirically determined parameters and still leave part of the relevant physics insufficiently described.

Here we investigate these processes using a discrete element method (DEM) approach coupled with a pore-scale finite volume (PFV) scheme. Similarly to the framework proposed by Nguyen et al. (2021), the DEM models the granular gouge, while PFV simulates pore-pressure evolution and fluid flow through the evolving pore geometry, with full two-way coupling between solid deformation and fluid pressure, thus relating the macroscopic response of the system to the micromechanical phenomena at work.

Using this coupled approach, we simulate both monotonic and cyclic injection protocols designed to represent fault-valve cycles. We quantify how permeability evolves before, during, and after reactivation, and we explore the influence of key controlling factors: (i) initial permeability, (ii) initial stress state prior to injection, and (iii) confining stress. We also estimate seismic moments associated with individual reactivation events where the recovered moments remain bounded by the injected-volume constraint M0,max =GΔV  (McGarr, 2014). Overall, by adding grain-scale observations to trends reported in laboratory and in situ studies, this work helps interpret permeability transients and their implications for triggered seismicity, in order to provide more realistic models of fluid-induced fault reactivation.

References
Nguyen, H. N. G., Scholtès, L., Guglielmi, Y., Donzé, F. V., Ouraga, Z., & Souley, M. (2021). Micromechanics of sheared granular layers activated by fluid pressurization. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093222
McGarr, A. (2014). Maximum magnitude earthquakes induced by fluid injection. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 119, 1008–1019. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JB010597

How to cite: Larkem, O., Scholtès, L., and Golfier, F.: A Multi-Scale Approach to Fault-Valve Systems and Their Evolution, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6001, 2026.

EGU26-6574 | ECS | Orals | EMRP1.3

Filling a missing piece of the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake: Rupture characteristics and implications for regional seismic hazard 

Duo Li, Andrew Howell, Genevieve Coffey, Kate Clark, Nicola Litchfield, Rob Langridge, Emmanuel Caballero Leyva, Rafael Benites, Charles Williams, Sanjay Bora, and Matt Gerstenberger

How large earthquakes rupture across mechanically distinct fault systems remains a fundamental unresolved problem in seismology. New Zealand straddles the Australia–Pacific plate boundary, where relative plate motion is partitioned between deep Hikurangi subduction and widespread dextral strike-slip faulting in the upper plate, such as the Marlborough Fault System. This tectonic configuration favours complex, multi-fault earthquakes, as illustrated by the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake and the 2013 Mw 6.5 and Mw 6.6 Cook Strait sequence in central New Zealand. Investigating the source physics of such complex ruptures and their relationship to plate-boundary architecture will provide essential constraints on fault interaction processes and seismic hazard in large-scale convergent margins.

On the evening of 23 January 1855, a major earthquake struck central New Zealand with intense ground shaking across much of the North and South Island. Empirical ground intensity was estimated up to ten, and local tsunami waves reached nearly 10 m in the Cook Strait (Grapes and Downes, 1997; Clark et al., 2019). This event is remarkable for having generated significant uplift - maximum uplift of 6.4 m measured in the southern Wellington coast (McSaveney et al., 2006) - and extreme dextral slip, measured as ~18.7 m at Pigeon Bush along the Wairarapa fault (Rodgers and Little, 2006).  Seismological evidence suggests an offshore hypocentre at ~25 km depth and a magnitude exceeding 8.0; however, in the absence of instrumental observations, it remains unclear whether significant slip also occurred on the Hikurangi subduction interface  (Beavan & Darby, 2005). Resolving the role of the deeper Hikurangi megathrust, particularly its potential synchronous activation with upper-plate faults, is therefore crucial for understanding the rupture mechanics of this event and for improving seismic hazard assessments in densely populated plate-boundary regions.

In this study, we investigate the source complexity and associated ground motions of multi-fault earthquakes using physics-based dynamic rupture simulations of the 2016 Kaikōura and 1855 Wairarapa earthquakes in central New Zealand. We construct dynamic source models accounting for updated geological and seismological constraints, including regional tectonic stress fields (Townend et al., 2012), national fault networks (Seebeck et al., 2024), nonlinear rheology, and three-dimensional subsurface structures. These key geophysical constraints are essential in reproducing the instrumental observations in the case of the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake (e.g. Ulrich et al. 2019).  Rupture magnitude and ground shaking of historical earthquakes are validated against geological measurements, landslide inventories, and tsunami run-up. Beyond observation-driven scenarios, we systematically explore the sensitivity of rupture dynamics and ground motions to variations in tectonic conditions in historical earthquakes. These simulations will provide physical constraints on rupture kinematics and fault interactions, offering insights into improving near-source ground-motion models and regional seismic hazard assessments.

How to cite: Li, D., Howell, A., Coffey, G., Clark, K., Litchfield, N., Langridge, R., Caballero Leyva, E., Benites, R., Williams, C., Bora, S., and Gerstenberger, M.: Filling a missing piece of the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake: Rupture characteristics and implications for regional seismic hazard, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6574, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6574, 2026.

The Gutenberg-Richter law for the distribution of earthquake magnitude and the Omori law for the decay of aftershocks are two universal laws in seismicity. Although numerical models have been developed to reproduce these laws, they sometimes produce many more foreshocks and less aftershocks than observed. In this study, we simulate earthquake sequences on a 2D random fault network. The fault lengths follow a power-law distribution. Our simulations reproduce the Omori law, without producing many foreshocks. The event size distribution follows Gutenberg-Richter's law with the b-value expected from the fault length distribution, even though many earthquakes are multi-fault ruptures or partial ruptures. Ruptures sometimes propagate into other faults, though there are more partial ruptures than multi-fault ruptures. The frequency of partial and cascading ruptures increases with higher fault density or stronger velocity-weakening friction. Overall, this work illuminates how fault interaction controls the spatiotemporal pattern of seismicity.

How to cite: Ozawa, S.: Partial ruptures, cascading multi-fault ruptures, and aftershocks in 2D random fault network, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8601, 2026.

EGU26-8994 | Posters on site | EMRP1.3

Rupture termination controlled by tuned stress heterogeneity on a 6-m-long laboratory rock fault 

Futoshi Yamashita, Eiichi Fukuyama, Kurama Okubo, and Yoshiaki Matsumoto

Understanding where and how rupture terminates on a fault is crucial because it controls earthquake magnitude and associated damage. But the in situ stress state, which is one of the key parameters governing rupture dynamics, is not directly measurable on natural faults. Laboratory experiments therefore provide an essential approach for investigating rupture termination (e.g., Bayart et al., 2016, 2018; Ke et al., 2018). Previous studies showed that termination can often be interpreted using an energy balance at the rupture tip within linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM), while also suggesting that incorporating additional processes such as long-tailed weakening or rate-dependent friction may improve the description (e.g., Paglialunga et al., 2022; Brener and Bouchbinder, 2021). In order to deepen our understanding of rupture dynamics, including how they terminate, it should be efficient to conduct a systematic investigation that controls the stress state and resulting rupture behavior in the laboratory. From this point of view, we have started a large-scale rock friction experiment. In our experiments, two metagabbro specimens are stacked vertically within the experimental frame. The contacting nominal area is 6.0 m long by 0.5 m wide. Six hydraulic jacks apply normal load to the upper block, and a single hydraulic jack applies shear load to the lower block, which is supported on low-friction rollers. Strain gauge arrays along the fault measure local shear stress every 130 mm at a sampling rate of 1 MHz. In experiment GB01-051, we first imposed 5 mm of shear displacement under a macroscopic normal stress of 2.8 MPa, generating repeated stick-slip events that nucleated at either the leading or trailing edge. We then gradually reduced the normal load on one of the normal jacks on the trailing-edge side while maintaining the shear load. This procedure produced clear nucleation near the unloaded jack followed by a full rupture across the entire fault. After restoring the loads to near-critical conditions, we repeated the procedure at the leading-edge side to generate fault ruptures. In a subsequent trailing-edge attempt, however, rupture terminated approximately halfway along the fault, despite a similar macroscopic stress level. Local stress measurements indicate that previous ruptures reduced the shear stress on the leading-edge side, lowering the available energy release rate for propagation and promoting termination. These results demonstrate that rupture initiation and termination can be manipulated through the evolving stress heterogeneity. We also estimated a lower bound on fracture energy from the measured stress drop using LEFM. Accounting for uncertainty in the termination location, the inferred value ranges from 0.032 to 0.29 J/m², consistent with prior experiments on the same rock type (Xu et al., 2019). Ongoing work will further quantify how controlled stress heterogeneity governs rupture termination.

How to cite: Yamashita, F., Fukuyama, E., Okubo, K., and Matsumoto, Y.: Rupture termination controlled by tuned stress heterogeneity on a 6-m-long laboratory rock fault, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8994, 2026.

The critical nucleation length (Lc) is a fundamental parameter that characterizes the earthquake nucleation process and is theoretically proportional to the fracture energy and the inverse square of shear stress drop (Andrews, 1976, JGR). However, quantitative verification of this relationship has been limited due to difficulties in controlling the nucleation location and in achieving spatially dense measurements capable of resolving the nucleation extent and associated stress drop on the fault.

In this study, we conducted large-scale rock-friction experiments using the biaxial friction apparatus to investigate the scaling characteristics of the critical nucleation length Lc. The experimental configuration consists of vertically stacked Indian metagabbro blocks, comprising an upper block (L6.0 m × W0.5 m × H0.75 m ) and a lower block (L7.5 m × W0.5 m × H0.75 m ), forming a simulated fault with a nominal contact area of 6.0 m × 0.5 m. Strain gauges were installed at a distance of 15 mm from the fault surface with a spacing of 130 mm, and continuous measurements were recorded at a sampling rate of 1 MHz. Normal loading was applied using six independently controlled jacks, enabling controlled rupture nucleation confined within the fault and high-resolution measurements of local shear-stress time history.

To establish a robust measurement criterion for Lc based on rupture velocity evolution, we performed 2D dynamic rupture simulations using spectral boundary integral equation software UGUCA (Kammer et al., 2021) with a linear slip-weakening law. We compared the theoretical Lc predicted from the frictional parameters and prescribed initial stress with Lc inferred from rupture-velocity-based criteria. By varying the critical slip distance Dc, we simulated nucleation processes with different Lc values. The results show that the preslip extent at which the rupture velocity reaches approximately 0.06Vs (where Vs is shear-wave velocity) is in good agreement with the theoretically predicted Lc, supporting the use of this criterion for quantifying and discussing the scaling of Lc.

Applying this criterion to the laboratory experiments, the estimated Lc values range from 0.4 m to 4.0 m, spanning nearly one order of magnitude. The average local shear stress drop within the estimated nucleation region was evaluated as the difference between the initial and residual shear stresses measured before and after the main shock. We observed that Lc clearly scales with the inverse of the shear stress drop, rather than the inverse square, which persists under different normal stress conditions. This scaling is consistent with the observation that the initial shear stress is close to the peak strength in the nucleation region, under the assumption that Dc remains nearly constant among events (approximately 1 μm in this study). These findings provide insight into the quantitative dependence of Lc on the shear stress drop and place important constraints on our understanding of earthquake nucleation processes.

How to cite: Matsumoto, Y., Okubo, K., Yamashita, F., and Fukuyama, E.: Earthquake Source Processes inferred from a 6-meter-long laboratory fault (1) Quantitative Evaluation of Critical Nucleation Length under Variable Stress Drops, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9293, 2026.

EGU26-9616 | Posters on site | EMRP1.3

Micromechanical Investigation of Fault-Valving Cycles Using the Discrete Element Method 

Luc Scholtès, Oussama Larkem, and Fabrice Golfier

Fault zones play a fundamental role in controlling subsurface fluid circulation and mineralization. Their capacity to alternately behave as barriers or conduits—commonly conceptualized within the fault-valve model—results from complex interactions among multiphysical processes (thermal, hydraulic, mechanical, and chemical) acting across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales within the fault structure.

Focusing on the gouge scale, we investigate the hydromechanical behavior of faults using a three-dimensional pore-scale modeling framework that couples a Discrete Element Method (DEM) with a pore-scale finite volume (PFV) scheme. Building on the approach of Nguyen et al. (2021), the DEM is used to model the gouge material as a granular assembly, while the PFV method is used to model fluid flow within the evolving pore space.

Using this coupled approach, we simulate a sheared, fluid-saturated granular gouge subjected to hydromechanical loading through a controlled cyclic fluid injection protocol applied at constant shear stress. The DEM-PFV model captures emergent behaviors consistent with laboratory and in situ observations, and reveals pronounced cycle-to-cycle variability in both the onset of reactivation (Sarma et al., 2025) and the magnitude of slip under repeated pressurization and depressurization. In particular, some cycles produce large slip episodes whereas others exhibit comparatively small slip under similar loading conditions. To connect this macroscopic variability to micromechanics, we track the evolution of the force-chain population throughout the cycles using the characterization method proposed by Peters et al. (2005). The results provide grain-scale insights into how internal load-bearing structures reorganize across cycles and how these force-chain dynamics relate to the occurrence of large-slip events in fault-valving sequences.

References
Nguyen, H. N. G., Scholtès, L., Guglielmi, Y., Donzé, F. V., Ouraga, Z., & Souley, M. (2021). Micromechanics of sheared granular layers activated by fluid pressurization. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093222
Sarma, P., Aharonov, E., Toussaint, R., & Parez, S. (2025). Fault gouge failure induced by fluid injection: Hysteresis, delay and shear-strengthening. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030768
Peters, J., Muthuswamy, M., Wibowo, J., & Tordesillas, A. (2005). Characterization of force chains in granular material. Physical Review E. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.72.041307

How to cite: Scholtès, L., Larkem, O., and Golfier, F.: Micromechanical Investigation of Fault-Valving Cycles Using the Discrete Element Method, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9616, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9616, 2026.

EGU26-9839 | ECS | Posters on site | EMRP1.3

From thermal pressurization (TP) to dilatant strengthening (DS) during stick-slip ruptures on saturated saw-cut thermally cracked westerly granite 

Caiyuan Fan, Gang Lin, Jérôme Aubry, Damien Deldicque, Carolina Giorgetti, Harsha S. Bhat, and Alexandre Schubnel

In fluid-rich faults, thermal pressurization (TP) is theoretically predicted to induce rapid fault weakening and facilitate large earthquakes, whereas dilatant strengthening (DS) can counteract this process through pore-space expansion. This study experimentally investigates the relative efficiency and condition of TP and DS using triaxial stick-slip tests with on-fault pore pressure (Pp) measurements. Dynamic stick-slip events were generated on four saturated, saw-cut, thermally cracked Westerly granite samples under varying effective confining (30–60 MPa) and pore pressures (25–45 MPa). Results reveal a systematic rupture transition from co-seismic Pp rise (TP-type) at low shear stress to Pp drop (DS-type) at higher shear stress, accompanied by a coupled fast–slow spectrum: fast TP → slow TP → slow DS → fast DS. Fast events reach slip velocities up to three orders of magnitude higher (0.5–10 mm s-¹) than slow ones (0.001–0.5 mm s-¹). The TP model under undrained, adiabatic conditions reproduces the measured Pp evolution, indicating a progressive shear-zone widening (0.05–0.5 mm, as overestimated values) that reduces TP efficiency and promotes slow events. For DS sequences, an increasing dilatancy coefficient is inferred, consistent with enhanced Pp drops. Breakdown energy shows no clear difference between TP and DS events, suggesting similar rupture energetics despite opposite pore-pressure evolution. Overall, this study provides the first direct experimental evidence of TP–DS transitions, demonstrating that TP governs early-stage weakening but diminishes as the shear zone widens, allowing DS to dominate. These results imply that in mature fault zones, after several seismic cycles, fault weakening may be mainly governed by co-seismic dilatancy, although strong, fast ruptures can still occur when the dilatant strengthening is not sufficient to stop the on-going rupture.

How to cite: Fan, C., Lin, G., Aubry, J., Deldicque, D., Giorgetti, C., S. Bhat, H., and Schubnel, A.: From thermal pressurization (TP) to dilatant strengthening (DS) during stick-slip ruptures on saturated saw-cut thermally cracked westerly granite, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9839, 2026.

EGU26-12207 | ECS | Orals | EMRP1.3

Can Earthquake magnitude be predicted at rupture onset? insights from scaled seismotectonic models 

Silvio Pardo, Fabio Corbi, Simona Guastamacchia, Giacomo Mastella, Elisa Tinti, and Francesca Funiciello

The largest earthquakes on planet Earth occurred along the frictional interface between subducting and overriding plates (i.e., the megathrust) at convergent margins. Some of these destructive events have occurred over the last 20 years, such as the 2004 Mw 9.0 Sumatra‐Andaman, 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, and 2011 Mw 9.0 Tōhoku‐Oki earthquakes. These large events are among the most devastating expressions of Earth's dynamics and, along with tsunamis, they represent a major hazard to society. Therefore, it is crucial to understand to which extent it is possible to predict the final size of a large rupture from the early stage of its propagation. We studied analog earthquakes in an apparatus - Foamquake (Mastella et al., 2022) - in which we used foam rubber to reproduce the upper plate and a 1 cm thick layer of granular materials to reproduce the subduction channel. The set-up is made of an elastic foam wedge with a dimension of 145 × 90 × 20 cm3 (i.e., the overriding plate analog) that overlies a planar, 10° dipping, rigid plate. Along the plate, a basal conveyor belt is driven with constant velocity (0.01 cm/s), reproducing a steady, trench-orthogonal subduction. To constrain the dynamics of analog earthquakes, we used a network of 11 Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) accelerometers, distributed on the model surface, and measured the evolution of the trench orthogonal component of acceleration at 1 kHz. Additionally, we also used a top-view high-resolution camera (100 Hz), that allows us to derive surface displacements via Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV), that enables characterization of the final static rupture properties, while MEMS monitoring resolves the temporal evolution of spatiotemporal slip. We report 21 models with different frictional configurations of the analog megathrust, including asperities and barriers of varying dimensions, to produce thousands of events with different magnitudes. MEMS monitoring allows for characterization of the Source Time Function (STF) of each event. Preliminary analysis of the STFs indicates a weak correlation  (i.e., R2<0.2) between the moment accumulated over different time windows during the early stages of rupture propagation and the final size of individual events. These results contribute, from an experimental perspective, to the ongoing debate on the stochastic versus deterministic nature of earthquake rupture growth.

How to cite: Pardo, S., Corbi, F., Guastamacchia, S., Mastella, G., Tinti, E., and Funiciello, F.: Can Earthquake magnitude be predicted at rupture onset? insights from scaled seismotectonic models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12207, 2026.

EGU26-12872 | ECS | Orals | EMRP1.3

Fluid-assisted frictional healing revealed by ultrasonic waves 

Michele Mauro, Giovanni Guglielmi, Fabio Trippetta, and Marco Scuderi

The seismic potential of a fault is controlled by its ability to regain strength between earthquakes (fault healing). Variations in healing rate among different rock types can cause local locking and elastic strain energy accumulation, potentially leading to earthquake nucleation. The 2016 Mw 6.5 Norcia mainshock nucleated in the Triassic Evaporites, the seismogenic layer of central Italy, composed of dolostones and anhydrites. Despite its relevance, the mechanical behavior of anhydrite remains relatively less constrained compared to other common crustal lithologies. Only a limited number of studies have systematically investigated the frictional properties of anhydrite, suggesting that its mechanical behavior is strongly sensitive to boundary conditions.

We conducted room humidity (RH) and water-saturated (WS) Slide-Hold-Slide (SHS) friction experiments on anhydrite gouge to assess and isolate the role of water on its healing properties. To inform mechanical data with the microphysical evolution of the fault, we used piezoelectric (PZT) sensors in transmission mode, which record ultrasonic S-wave (UW) propagation through the sample. Finally, mechanical and ultrasonic measurements were complemented by microstructural analyses of the post-mortem sample.

Our results show that fault healing follows a log-linear dependence on hold time under both RH and WS conditions, but with markedly different magnitudes. Water-saturated experiments exhibit a healing rate nearly three times larger (β ~ 0.024) than RH experiments (β ~ 0.009). Ultrasonic measurements reveal a systematic log-linear increase in S-wave velocity during hold periods. This growth is significantly more pronounced in WS samples, where S-wave velocity increases by more than ~2.8% per decade of hold time, compared to ~1% in RH conditions. Microstructural observations indicate that RH samples deform through distributed cataclastic processes accommodated by multiple R-shear bands, whereas WS samples exhibit extreme strain localization along B-shear zones characterized by intense grain-size reduction and the development of a compressive foliation, consistent with semi-brittle deformation.

These results demonstrate that water fundamentally alters the healing efficiency and deformation style of anhydrite faults. Moreover, they show that ultrasonic wave measurements provide a powerful, independent tool to track fault restrengthening during simulated interseismic periods. The observed increase in S-wave velocity can be directly linked to an increase in the shear modulus of the gouge, which appears to be greater in the presence of water, probably due to fluid-assisted healing processes. Together, the high healing rates and the mechanical stiffening of the microstructure inferred from S-wave velocity measurements suggest that anhydrite gouge may be capable of efficiently accumulating elastic strain energy during interseismic periods. Our findings suggest that fluid-assisted healing in anhydrite-bearing fault zones may play a critical role in controlling fault stability and seismic behavior in natural settings.

How to cite: Mauro, M., Guglielmi, G., Trippetta, F., and Scuderi, M.: Fluid-assisted frictional healing revealed by ultrasonic waves, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12872, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12872, 2026.

In laboratory studies, the tendency for earthquake nucleation on major plate-boundary fault zones is typically evaluated by measuring the change in shear strength upon controlled step changes in driving velocity.  In such laboratory shear experiments simulating fault sliding, it is typical to neglect the cohesion and assume that all the measured shear strength is due to frictional resistance.  Therefore, the results of such experiments are evaluated in terms of a friction coefficient calculated as the ratio of the shear strength to effective normal stress, where the “velocity-dependent friction” is quantified by the parameter a-b.  However, previous work has shown that the sliding cohesion is not necessarily negligible, especially for water-saturated samples rich in clay-minerals.  This comes from recent experiments have shown that, using a single-direct type shear geometry, the cohesion can be directly measured as a peak shear strength with zero applied normal load (zero effective normal stress).  The technique can also be used for samples that have accumulated slip, thus providing a measure of the cohesion that exists during sliding or “sliding cohesion”.

Here, I use measurements of sliding cohesion to test the assumption that velocity-dependent fault strength is completely controlled by friction, and determine if cohesion plays a significant role.  For these tests I use water-saturated powdered illite-rich Rochester shale, a material that consistently exhibits velocity-strengthening behavior.  The velocity-dependent strength is first obtained with a series of standard 3-fold step increases in driving velocity in the range 0.1-100 μm/s under 10 MPa effective normal stress.  The sliding cohesion is then measured in a series of experiments in which the samples were sheared for 5 mm under 10 MPa effective stress, the normal stress subsequently removed, and then sheared at each of the velocities used in the velocity-step test.  From these tests, the velocity-dependent cohesion is calculated by substituting the cohesion for shear strength and calculating an equivalent “a-b” value that can be subtracted from the standard a-b value measured from the velocity step tests. 

Preliminary results show that velocity-dependent cohesion is of the same order as a-b values, and accounts for up to about a third of the measured a-b values.  The percentage of strength change related to cohesion rather than friction decreases as a function of increasing driving velocity.  Although cohesion is a significant proportion of the velocity-dependent strength changes, removing the velocity-dependence of cohesion is insufficient to cause negative a-b values.  However, this result can also be affected by the choice parameters used in the modeling technique that extracts the a-b values and must therefore be evaluated carefully.  The magnitude of velocity-dependent cohesion suggests that it may represent a signification proportion of velocity-dependent sliding strength.

How to cite: Ikari, M.: Considering velocity-dependent cohesion in fault sliding stability, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14228, 2026.

EGU26-14469 | Posters on site | EMRP1.3

Earthquake Source Processes inferred from a 6-meter-long laboratory fault (2): Fracture Energy Estimation from Dynamic Stress Fields 

Kurama Okubo, Futoshi Yamashita, Yoshiaki Matsumoto, and Eiichi Fukuyama

Fracture energy is a key scaling parameter governing the transition from quasi-static nucleation to dynamic rupture propagation, and it also controls the dynamic stress field around the rupture front. In principle, when fracture energy is uniform along a fault, a single intrinsic fracture energy should describe both quasi-static nucleation and the stress field during rupture propagation. However, this unifying role has not been fully validated experimentally, primarily because conventional laboratory faults are too small to capture the entire rupture process from nucleation to propagation toward limiting speed. Here, we compare the fracture energy evaluated from the shear stress changes associated with the dynamic rupture propagation (Γ) with that inferred from the independently observed critical nucleation length (GLc) on a 6-meter-long laboratory fault.

We conduct faulting experiments on a 6-meter-long laboratory fault and evaluate fracture energy by fitting a steady-state rupture model with a linear cohesive zone to local shear stress changes recorded 15 mm away from the fault. In the biaxial rock-friction apparatus, vertically stacked rock specimens form a simulated fault with dimensions of 6 m × 0.5 m. Six independently controlled jacks applying normal loading enable rupture nucleation at prescribed timing and location by unloading a selected jack while maintaining the shear stress near the peak frictional strength. Rupture velocity is constrained by cross-correlating shear stress histories between neighboring strain gauges spaced at 130 mm. Using the locally estimated rupture velocity, fracture energy Γ and cohesive zone size are determined by minimizing the residual between observed and modeled shear stress time histories.

Fracture energy inferred from critical nucleation length, GLc, is computed following the formulation of Palmer and Rice (1973) and Andrews (1976), using the critical nucleation length examined by Matsumoto et al. (2026, EGU) togather with the measured stress drops.

We analyze three nucleation-controlled events conducted under a macroscopic normal stress of 3 MPa. From local shear stress time histories associated with rupture velocities lower than 0.95 of the Rayleigh wave speed, we obtained an average fracture energy Γ of 0.04 ± 0.01 J/m². This value is consistent with GLc of 0.05 J/m², inferred from events with an average stress drop of 0.05 MPa. These results contribute to the quantitative interpretation of laboratory observations and to improved understanding of earthquake source processes on natural faults.

How to cite: Okubo, K., Yamashita, F., Matsumoto, Y., and Fukuyama, E.: Earthquake Source Processes inferred from a 6-meter-long laboratory fault (2): Fracture Energy Estimation from Dynamic Stress Fields, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14469, 2026.

EGU26-14558 | Orals | EMRP1.3

Heterogeneous Stress–Driven Shear Localization Governing Fault Slip in Decimeter-Scale Quartz Gouge under Variable Surrounding Stiffness 

Giacomo Mastella, Giuseppe Volpe, Martijn Van den Ende, Michele De Solda, Fabio Corbi, Francesca Funciciello, Chris Marone, and Scuderi Marco

Fault slip stability is governed by the competition between the elastic energy stored in the surrounding medium and the rate of frictional weakening of the fault, which depends on its constitutive frictional properties. Laboratory shear experiments validate this framework under simplified conditions and homogeneous boundary conditions. In contrast, natural faults are heterogeneous across multiple scales, with variations in stress, frictional properties, fault-zone structure, and elastic properties as documented in laboratory, numerical, and field studies. In gouge-filled faults,  heterogeneities are dynamically coupled: stress concentrations promote shear localization, which modifies gouge fabric that controls the frictional properties, ultimately dictating fault stability and rupture dynamics. Resolving how spatially heterogeneous stress and evolving fault-zone structure interact to control rupture nucleation and propagation therefore requires experimental approaches that move beyond homogeneous assumptions.

Here we present results from large-scale biaxial shear experiments on a quartz gouge–filled fault (75 cm × 8 cm) using two forcing-block materials—Nylon 6 and PMMA—with different elastic stiffnesses. The fault was densely instrumented to investigate how stress heterogeneity and evolving shear fabric control slip behavior under different nominal normal stresses from 3 to 10 MPa and a constant loading rate of 10 µm/s. Far-field stress and displacement were monitored using load cells and LVDTs (1 kHz), while forcing blocks deformation was measured using Digital Image Correlation (DIC, 2–30 Hz). During laboratory earthquakes, local fault slip and volumetric deformation were recorded using eddy-current displacement sensors (1.25 MHz) and high-speed DIC (10 kHz). Emitted acoustic waves were recorded at 3.125 MHz using an array of 33 piezoelectric sensors calibrated through ball-drop tests, active-ultrasonic survey, laser vibrometry, and spectral-element waveform modeling.

The experiments produce a broad spectrum of slip behaviors, from stable creep, slow ruptures to fast, dynamic events. Transitions from slow to fast slip are promoted by increasing normal stress and decreasing elastic stiffness. Co-seismic slip, peak slip velocity, and high-frequency acoustic energy increase systematically with cumulative fault slip, increasing normal stress, and decreasing loading stiffness. Direct measurements of slip enable estimation of the critical nucleation length, which decreases with increasing cumulative slip and normal stress, in agreement with theoretical predictions. Finite-element modeling shows that the experimental geometry induces heterogeneous stress distributions promoting the development of heterogeneous shear fabrics and spatially variable frictional responses. When shear fabric is well developed, normal stress is low, and the nucleation lengths are correspondingly large, stress heterogeneities have little impact  on slip dynamics, which is dominated by system spanning events with regular, periodic seismic cycles. Conversely, at higher normal stress—conditions associated with smaller nucleation lengths—and/or poorly developed shear fabric, stress heterogeneity drives complex slip behavior, including partial and full ruptures and rupture cascades characterized by strongly spatially variable stress drops. These results highlight how the coupled evolution of stress, shear fabric, and frictional heterogeneities controls slip dynamics in gouge-filled faults.



How to cite: Mastella, G., Volpe, G., Van den Ende, M., De Solda, M., Corbi, F., Funciciello, F., Marone, C., and Marco, S.: Heterogeneous Stress–Driven Shear Localization Governing Fault Slip in Decimeter-Scale Quartz Gouge under Variable Surrounding Stiffness, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14558, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14558, 2026.

EGU26-15062 | ECS | Orals | EMRP1.3

Bridging inner fault shear localisation and the propagation of earthquake rupture 

Fabian Barras and Nicolas Brantut
Earthquakes leave different types of records that help decipher their dynamics. At the large scale monitored by remote sensing and seismic data, earthquakes arise from the propagation of rapid slip along tectonic faults, exhibiting rupture dynamics reminiscent of those driving shear fracture or slip fronts in stick-slip experiments. At the scale of the fault core, fieldwork revealed how the zone actively deformed during an earthquake is often extremely thin and that shear strains are highly localised.
In this work, we numerically simulate shear ruptures using a dual-scale approach, allowing us to couple a sub-millimetre description of inner fault processes and kilometre‑scale elastodynamics. Our results demonstrate how rapid strain localisation across a layer of fault gouge creates a sudden drop in the shear stress bearing capacity, producing earthquake rupture that closely follows fracture mechanics description. We quantify how the fracture energy governing rupture propagation is substantially smaller than that predicted by models that do not account for strain localisation. We show the existence of a unique scaling law between the localised shearing width and the rupture speed. Our results bring new insights on the multiscale mechanics that produces seismic rupture and indicate that earthquakes are likely to be systematically associated to extreme strain localisation.

How to cite: Barras, F. and Brantut, N.: Bridging inner fault shear localisation and the propagation of earthquake rupture, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15062, 2026.

Earthquakes represent the most visible manifestation of tectonic stress accumulation and release within the Earth’s lithosphere. Despite their fundamental importance, the absolute stress levels that drive earthquake rupture remain poorly constrained. In particular, fault shear strength is strongly influenced by fluid pressure at depth, yet its magnitude and variability, especially within the locked zones of megathrusts and across different tectonic regimes, are still not well understood. In this study, I estimate the shear strength of the lithosphere by quantifying the total energy budget of large earthquake ruptures. The total released energy is partitioned into radiated energy and energy dissipated during fault slip, commonly referred to as breakdown (or fracture) energy (G). Radiated energy can be robustly estimated from seismic waveforms or earthquake source time functions. In contrast, reliable estimates of fracture energy are more challenging. To address this, I employ a finite-width slip-pulse model for steady-state dynamic rupture propagation (Rice et al., 2005), combined with heterogeneous kinematic rupture models of large earthquakes. The analysis is based on 208 finite-fault rupture models from the NEIC database, spanning Mw ≥ 7 earthquakes between 1990 and 2025. The adoption of a self-healing pulse rupture framework is motivated by the widely observed property that earthquake rise times are approximately an order of magnitude shorter than total rupture durations, on average about one-seventh of the rupture time in my database.

My results indicate that fracture energy (G) is strongly controlled by the heterogeneous distribution of rupture velocity, rise time, and slip during earthquake rupture. Fracture energy is underestimated by approximately a factor of five when heterogeneity in the rupture process of large earthquakes is neglected, and by nearly an order of magnitude when estimates are based on a classical crack rupture model. Assuming that megathrust earthquakes undergo an almost complete strength drop during rupture, as observed for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, our estimates represent lower bounds on fault shear strength across global subduction zones and the oceanic lithosphere. The results reveal pronounced fault weakening during megathrust ruptures, with a global average shear strength of approximately 6 MPa. Tsunami earthquakes correspond to the weakest faults, with shear strengths on the order of ~2 MPa, implying that fluid pressures are extremely elevated across most subduction interfaces worldwide. Using these shear strength estimates, I infer a global average pore-fluid pressure ratio (λ = Pf / σlith) of approximately 0.9 for subduction megathrusts. In contrast, the oceanic lithosphere at mid-ocean ridges, transform faults, and fracture zones is nearly an order of magnitude stronger, indicating fluid pressures close to hydrostatic conditions. These pronounced contrasts demonstrate that fluid pressure may play a first-order role in controlling the strength of the Earth’s lithosphere.

How to cite: Pulido, N.: Estimation of fault fracture energy and shear strength drop in large earthquakes: Implications for fluid pressure and tectonic regime, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16466, 2026.

EGU26-16867 | ECS | Posters on site | EMRP1.3

Microstructural and Frictional Consequences of Slip Velocity Variations: Insights from a single-asperity lab-fault experiment 

Adriane Clerc, Guilhem Mollon, Amandine Ferrieux, Lionel Lafarge, and Aurélien Saulot

Understanding earthquakes mechanisms still represents a challenge. The complexity of both the fault zone and the fault behaviour requires to make some simplifications and to downscale the studied system.

 In our work, we aim at creating a down-scaled experimental fault model where the behaviour of the asperities and the shearing of the granular gouge are both considered. In order to do so, we borrow from the tribological approach the pin-on-disk experiment: the original experimental apparatus consists in a centimetric pin with a hemispherical extremity representing the fault asperity while a large flat rotating disk stands for the opposite surface of the experimental fault. Both parts are made in the same carbonate rock with controlled roughness. Co-seismic conditions (Velocity in the range [0.001 – 1]  m/s, Normal stress in the range [4 – 400] MPa) are applied during the different experimental tests. A number of high-sampling-rate sensors are used to constrain the observation of the asperity-track contact during the simulated seismic events. Moreover, complete post-mortem analyses of the contact surfaces allow to quantify the mechanisms and to reconstruct friction scenarios in accordance with the time-series acquired during tests.

In a previous work, we determined the conditions most representative for a mature lab-fault. In the present study, we focus on the changes in wear and friction behaviours in the lab-fault linked to the slip velocity variations and the presence of granular gouge. Wear is mostly dependent on the slip velocity and the granular gouge layer thickness obtained at the mature conditions appears as an optimal thickness to limit wear. Here, velocity weakening is observed, with dramatic consequences on the microstructure of the contact surfaces. SEM and optical images show evidences of the combination of high stresses and heating on the first layer of minerals of the contact zone.

How to cite: Clerc, A., Mollon, G., Ferrieux, A., Lafarge, L., and Saulot, A.: Microstructural and Frictional Consequences of Slip Velocity Variations: Insights from a single-asperity lab-fault experiment, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16867, 2026.

EGU26-17231 | Posters on site | EMRP1.3

In-situ X-ray imaging of stick-slip behavior in small-scale polystyrene fault analogs 

Bastien Walter and Audrey Bonnelye

Understanding the mechanisms controlling fault slip requires dedicated experimental setups that bridge the gap between natural conditions and observable scales. These experiments may require the use of analogue materials adapted to the scale of the laboratory, which present interesting characteristics facilitating the observation of physical processes. Polystyrene, due to its low strength and elastic properties, and structure, offers an effective analog material to investigate mechanical fault processes at both large (metric) and small scales (cm). Its low elastic properties slows down deformation processes and enables in-situ small scale observations using X-ray microCT.

In this study, we performed uniaxial compression experiments on small polystyrene blocks with a pre-cut slip interface. Polystyrene of various initial densities were tested. Compression rates ranged from 0.1 to 1 mm/min to induce different slip modes, from slow slip to dynamic stick-slip events. Real-time 2D X-ray radiography was coupled with mechanical monitoring to capture the onset and evolution of slip along the interface. Additionally, 3D scans were acquired at various stages during compression, with the objective of evaluating the spatial distribution of deformation around the fault plane over time.

The aim of this study is to combine mechanical data and imaging in order to characterize internal density changes associated with deformation. Preliminary observations seem to highlight density contrasts in the bulk material around the fault plane, offering insight into potential precursory signs of slip.

This approach demonstrates the potential of X-ray microCT for high-resolution monitoring of analog fault models, with perspectives for quantifying strain localization and post-slip damage patterns. These results may contribute to the understanding of frictional behavior and rupture dynamics in scaled experiments.

How to cite: Walter, B. and Bonnelye, A.: In-situ X-ray imaging of stick-slip behavior in small-scale polystyrene fault analogs, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17231, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17231, 2026.

EGU26-17445 | ECS | Posters on site | EMRP1.3

Imaging and forecasting rupture dynamics of induced microearthquakes 

Nico Schliwa, Francesco Mosconi, Elisa Tinti, Aurora Lambiase, Katinka Tuinstra, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Men-Andrin Meier, Massimo Cocco, and Domenico Giardini

Understanding the faulting dynamics of natural earthquakes is fundamentally limited by the scarcity of near-source observations and the incompleteness of knowledge about in situ conditions at depth. The Bedretto Underground Laboratory for Geosciences and Geoenergies (BedrettoLab) in Switzerland addresses these limitations through controlled hydraulic stimulation experiments that generate seismicity beneath more than 1 km of rock overburden, thereby bridging the scale gap between laboratory studies and observed natural earthquakes. A key advantage of the BedrettoLab is the ability to characterize in situ conditions prior to seismicity induction. This includes imaging the geometry of the target fault, estimating the local stress state and pore fluid pressure, and examining host and fault rock properties.

Seismicity induced by controlled hydraulic stimulation is recorded by a comprehensive suite of near-source instrumentation, including strong-motion seismometers, borehole geophones and accelerometers, high-frequency acoustic emission sensors, and fibre-optic cables enabling Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) and Fibre Bragg Grating (FBG) measurements. Past experiments have successfully generated seismicity sequences with mainshock magnitudes between Mw −0.5 and 0.0. We construct dynamic rupture models for one such mainshock, constrained by the available near-source observations, to image slip distribution, rupture directivity, and rupture velocity at meter-scale resolution. We find that rupture directivity has a substantially stronger impact on spectral amplitudes than average stress drop. The inferred stress and friction drops are interpreted in terms of the maximum possible confining pressure, providing insights into dynamic weakening processes during earthquake rupture.

The next experiment aims to induce Mw 1.0 earthquakes along a selected fault zone. Using constraints from hydraulic fracture tests, fault geometry imaging, and injection protocols, we seek to forecast the potential rupture dynamics of the induced mainshock by generating a suite of dynamic rupture models representing plausible rupture scenarios, against which the observed mainshock dynamics can be evaluated. In particular, we assess how reliably pre-experiment slip tendency analyses translate into the actual rupture behavior under these controlled conditions. Ultimately, this research will advance our understanding of earthquake source physics and contribute to improved forecasting and mitigation of worst-case scenarios associated with hydraulic stimulation.

How to cite: Schliwa, N., Mosconi, F., Tinti, E., Lambiase, A., Tuinstra, K., Gabriel, A.-A., Rinaldi, A. P., Meier, M.-A., Cocco, M., and Giardini, D.: Imaging and forecasting rupture dynamics of induced microearthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17445, 2026.

EGU26-17533 | ECS | Posters on site | EMRP1.3

P- and S-wave precursors to lab earthquakes under variable drainage and fluid pressurization 

Raphael Affinito, Pengliang Yu, Derek Elsworth, and Chris Marone

Fault slip emerges from coupled frictional and hydromechanical processes, yet forecasting stress evolution remains challenging when fluid pressurization, drainage, and dilatancy modulate effective normal stress. We present laboratory double-direct shear experiments on quartz-rich natural fault gouge conducted under dry, 100% humidity, and constant fluid-pressure boundary conditions. Throughout quasi-periodic and irregular seismic cycles, we continuously acquire active-source ultrasonic waveforms transmitted across the gouge layer and derive cycle-resolved acoustic observables: P- and S-wave velocity changes and amplitude-based transmissivity metrics (band-limited RMS).

For our range of conditions, the acoustic properties exhibit robust, two-stage precursory evolution. During the early interseismic phase, acoustic transmissivity increases with contact stress, consistent with progressive asperity contact growth and rising contact stiffness (“healing”). This is followed by a late interseismic-to-preseismic transition characterized by gradual bulk velocity reduction, interpreted as distributed inelastic creep and microcrack growth within the gouge. For the 100% humidity condition, velocity changes track slip velocity, peaking as the fault locks and decreasing prior to dynamic slip. Under constant external fluid pressure, partial drainage and localized undrained behavior further modulate both elastic velocity and transmissivity through shear-induced porosity changes and associated pore-pressure transients. Localized slip regions can show transient acoustic velocity increases consistent with dilatancy hardening, while the bulk response trends toward overall velocity decrease as failure approaches.

We develop a mechanistic poromechanical framework that links the ultrasonic observables to evolving contact stiffness, porosity, and effective stress, providing a physical basis for interpreting travel-time and amplitude changes under fluid pressurization. As an additional validation, a lightweight sequence model trained on the acoustic observables can reconstruct cycle-scale shear-stress evolution and event timing, demonstrating that the acoustic measurements encode the state of the fault. These results highlight the role of fault zone elastic properties for detection of precursory processes prior to earthquake failure and illuminate the processes that occur during the preparatory stages of earthquake nucleation for fluid-saturated fault systems.

How to cite: Affinito, R., Yu, P., Elsworth, D., and Marone, C.: P- and S-wave precursors to lab earthquakes under variable drainage and fluid pressurization, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17533, 2026.

EGU26-18859 | ECS | Posters on site | EMRP1.3

Complex interaction between brittle and ductile rheologies in slow laboratory earthquakes 

Giovanni Guglielmi, Michele Mauro, Marco Scuderi, Cristiano Collettini, and Fabio Trippetta

Earthquakes originate from frictional instabilities that nucleate and propagate along faults cutting through a multilayered crust. Geological observations show that fault zones are complex structures often composed of heterogeneous mineral assemblages with contrasting frictional rheologies, whose interaction strongly influences slip behavior during fault reactivation. Two major earthquakes (Mmax > 6) that struck central Italy in the past 30 years–the 1997 Colfiorito and 2016 Norcia events–nucleated within Triassic Evaporites (TE) consisting of anhydrites and dolostones. Previous laboratory experiments on stick-slipping faults in TE gouges highlighted the key role of shear zone fabric in controlling breakdown processes and slip dynamics. However, the individual contribution of each lithology to frictional failure mode remains unclear.

Here we present preliminary results from laboratory friction experiments on powdered TE samples aimed at disentangling the role of anhydrite and dolostone in controlling fault slip behavior and dynamics in TE faults. We conducted double-direct shear experiments on three gouge compositions: 100% anhydrite, 50:50 anhydrite-dolostone, and 100% dolostone. The experimental procedure comprises two main stages: (i) a fabric development phase, in which the gouge is sheared under 50 MPa normal stress at a load-point velocity of 10 μm/s; and (ii) a fault reactivation phase at boundary conditions designed to enhance frictional instabilities that are: normal stress reduced to 30 MPa, a low-stiffness element inserted in series with the shear loading axis, and re-shearing at 1 μm/s. We also monitored the evolution of the fault physical properties from fabric development to stick-slip, via an ultrasonic system that continuously transmits and receives acoustic waves through the experimental fault.

During the fabric development stage, all three fault gouges display stable sliding with a friction coefficient μ of ~ 0.6. In the fault reactivation stage, anhydrite faults exhibit slow (v < 20 μm/s), repetitive stick-slip with small stress drops (Δ𝛕 < 0.1 MPa), whereas dolostone faults accommodate shear through stable sliding. Interestingly, the 50:50 anhydrite-dolostone mixture does not exhibit intermediate behavior between the two  end-members but instead develops larger (0.1 < Δ𝛕 < 0.4 MPa), yet generally slower (v < 10 μm/s), slip instabilities, indicating a nonlinear mechanical interaction between anhydrite and dolostone.

Post-experiment microstructural analyses reveal that single-component gouges deform via cataclastic flow and frictional sliding along boundary and Riedel shear bands. In contrast, the 50:50 mixture exhibits extremely localized boundary shear planes dominated by nanometric dolostone particles embedded within foliated anhydrite-dolostone S-C structures. These features suggest a significant contribution of ductile, distributed deformation to energy dissipation during slow frictional ruptures. Ongoing ultrasonic wave analyses aim to characterize the relationship between the evolution of the elastic properties of the fault gouge, its internal structure, and the resulting slip behavior.

Our results provide new insights into the complex interplay between different frictional rheologies within fault zones of the seismogenic layer of northern Apennines, and highlight the role of compositional heterogeneity in controlling fault slip dynamics and energy dissipation.

How to cite: Guglielmi, G., Mauro, M., Scuderi, M., Collettini, C., and Trippetta, F.: Complex interaction between brittle and ductile rheologies in slow laboratory earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18859, 2026.

EGU26-22410 | Posters on site | EMRP1.3

Effect of long preexisting fractures on fault nucleation processes 

Taka Kanaya

The physics underlying earthquake precursory phenomena remains poorly constrained, particularly in crustal materials containing long preexisting fractures.  We conduct axial compression experiments on pre-heated Fontainebleau sandstone with acoustic emission (AE) monitoring under confining and pore pressures of 30 and 5 MPa, respectively.  Preliminary results show no systematic differences in precursory AE behavior between pre-heated and as-is samples.  All samples exhibit b values between 0 and 1, with a wide range of overall b-value evolution toward failure, including both increasing and decreasing trends.  Despite this variability, many samples show a local decrease in b value immediately before and during failure, preceded by a local increase near peak stress.  These local b-value variations likely reflect distinct microfracturing processes in porous granular rocks, contrasting with the more monotonic b-value decrease commonly reported for crystalline rocks.  Our results suggest that subtle differences in initial granular microstructure promote diverse precursory behavior under otherwise identical experimental conditions.  Such variability may contribute to the range of precursory behavior observed in tectonic earthquakes, where many large events are not preceded by a decrease in b value.  To investigate the role of aseismic deformation in fault nucleation, we are currently quantifying the evolution of microfracture distributions in deformed samples.  In parallel, we are deforming samples containing long preexisting fractures by first pre-deforming them in the semibrittle regime at higher pressure–temperature conditions, followed by deformation to failure at lower pressure–temperature conditions.  These experiments constrain the evolution of seismic and aseismic precursory signals toward large earthquakes in highly fractured crust.

How to cite: Kanaya, T.: Effect of long preexisting fractures on fault nucleation processes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22410, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22410, 2026.

EGU26-1897 | ECS | Posters on site | EOS4.4

The Unreliable Narrator: LSTM Internal States Fluctuate with Software Environments Despite Robust Predictions 

Ryosuke Nagumo, Ross Woods, and Miguel Rico-Ramirez

Since the robust performance of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks was established, their physics-awareness and interpretability have become central topics in hydrology. Seminal works (e.g., Lees et al. (2022)) have argued that LSTM internal states spontaneously capture hydrological concepts, and suggested that cell states can represent soil moisture dynamics despite not being explicitly trained on such data. Conversely, more recent studies (e.g., Fuente et al. (2024)) demonstrated that mathematical equifinality causes non-unique LSTM representations with different initialisations.

In this work, we report an arguably more systematic "bug" in the software environment that causes instability in internal states. We initially aimed to investigate how internal states behave differently when trained with or without historical observation data. We encountered this issue while reassembling a computational stack and attempting to replicate the initial results, as the original Docker environment was not preserved. While random seeds have been indicated to lead to different internal state trajectories, we found the computational backend (e.g., changing CUDA versions, PyTorch releases, or dependent libraries) also produces them. These are the findings:

  • In gauged catchments: Discharge predictions remained stable (in one catchment, NSE was 0.88 ± 0.01) across computational environments, yet the internal temporal variations (e.g., silhouette, mean, and std of cell states) fluctuated noticeably.
  • In pseudo-ungauged scenarios: The prediction performance itself became more reliant on the computational environment (in the same catchment, NSE dropped to 0.31 ± 0.15), yet the internal temporal variations of the cell states fluctuated only as much as they did during the gauged scenario.

These findings suggests that instability in the computational environment poses not only a risk of altering interpretability in training (by altering internal states) but also casts doubt on reliability in extrapolation (by altering outputs).

It is worth mentioning that we confirmed this is not a replicability issue; completely identical cell states and predictions are produced when the computational environment, seeds, and training data are held constant. We argue that such stability must be established as a standard benchmark before assigning physical meaning to deep learning internals.

How to cite: Nagumo, R., Woods, R., and Rico-Ramirez, M.: The Unreliable Narrator: LSTM Internal States Fluctuate with Software Environments Despite Robust Predictions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1897, 2026.

EGU26-2771 | Posters on site | EOS4.4

New EGU Manuscript Types: Limitations, Errors, Surprises, and Shortcomings as Opportunities for New Science (LESSONS) 

John Hillier, Ulrike Proske, Stefan Gaillard, Theresa Blume, and Eduardo Queiroz Alves

Moments or periods of struggle not only propel scientists forward, but sharing these experiences can also provide valuable lessons for others. Indeed, the current bias towards only publishing ‘positive’ results arguably impedes scientific progress as mistakes that are not learnt from are simply repeated. Here we present a new article type in EGU journals covering LESSONS learnt to help overcome this publishing bias. LESSONS articles describe the Limitations, Errors, Surprises, Shortcomings, and Opportunities for New Science emerging from the scientific process, including non-confirmatory and null results. Unforeseen complications in investigations, plausible methods that failed, and technical issues are also in scope. LESSONS thus fit the content of the BUGS session and can provide an outlet for articles based on session contributions. Importantly, a LESSONS Report will offer a substantial, valuable insight. LESSONS Reports are typically short (1,000-2,000 words) to help lower the barrier to journal publication, whilst LESSONS Posts (not peer-reviewed, but with a DOI on EGUsphere) can be as short as 500 words to allow early-stage reporting. LESSONS aim to destigmatise limitations, errors, surprises and shortcomings and to add these to the published literature as opportunities for new science – we invite you to share your LESSONS learnt.

 

Finally, a big thank you from this paper’s ‘core’ writing team to the wider group who have helped shape the LESSONS idea since EGU GA in 2025, including PubCom and in particular its Chair Barbara Ervens.

How to cite: Hillier, J., Proske, U., Gaillard, S., Blume, T., and Queiroz Alves, E.: New EGU Manuscript Types: Limitations, Errors, Surprises, and Shortcomings as Opportunities for New Science (LESSONS), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2771, 2026.

EGU26-3077 | ECS | Posters on site | EOS4.4

False Starts and Silver Linings: A Photocatalytic Journey with Layered Double Hydroxides 

Anna Jędras and Jakub Matusik

Photocatalysis is frequently presented in the literature as a straightforward route toward efficient degradation of pollutants, provided that the “right” material is selected. Layered double hydroxides (LDH) are often highlighted as promising photocatalysts due to their tunable composition and reported activity in dye degradation. Motivated by these claims, this study evaluated LDH as mineral analogs for photocatalytic water treatment, ultimately uncovering a series of unexpected limitations, methodological pitfalls, and productive surprises.

In the first stage, Zn/Cr, Co/Cr, Cu/Cr, and Ni/Cr LDHs were synthesized and tested for photocatalytic degradation of methylene blue (0.02 mM) and Acid Blue Dye 129 (0.3 mM). Contrary to expectations,1 photocatalytic performance was consistently low. After one hour of irradiation, concentration losses attributable to photocatalysis did not exceed 15%, while most dye removal resulted from adsorption. Despite extensive efforts to optimize synthesis protocols, catalyst composition, and experimental conditions, this discrepancy with previously published studies could not be resolved.

To overcome limitations related to particle dispersion, surface accessibility, and charge-carrier separation, a second strategy was pursued by incorporating clay minerals as supports.2 Zn/Cr LDH, identified as the most active composition in preliminary tests, was coprecipitated with kaolinite, halloysite, and montmorillonite. Experiments with methylene blue (0.1 mM) and Acid Blue 129 (0.3 mM) demonstrated enhanced adsorption capacities. However, photocatalytic degradation efficiencies remained poor, typically below 10% after one hour, indicating that apparent performance gains were largely adsorption-driven rather than photochemical.

This failure proved to be a turning point. Instead of abandoning LDH entirely, they were combined with graphitic carbon nitride (GCN) to form a heterostructure.3 This approach resulted in a dramatic improvement: after optimization of the synthesis protocol, 99.5% of 1 ppm estrone was degraded within one hour.4 Further modifications were explored by introducing Cu, Fe, and Ag into the LDH/GCN system. While Cu and Fe suppressed photocatalytic activity, silver, at an optimized loading, reduced estrone concentrations below the detection limit within 40 minutes.5

This contribution presents a full experimental arc - from promising hypotheses that failed, through misleading adsorption-driven “successes,” to an ultimately effective but non-intuitive solution - highlighting the value of negative results and surprises as drivers of scientific progress.

This research was funded by the AGH University of Krakow, grant number 16.16.140.315.

Literature:

1            N. Baliarsingh, K. M. Parida and G. C. Pradhan, Ind. Eng. Chem. Res., 2014, 53, 3834–3841.

2            A. Í. S. Morais, W. V. Oliveira, V. V. De Oliveira, L. M. C. Honorio, F. P. Araujo, R. D. S. Bezerra, P. B. A. Fechine, B. C. Viana, M. B. Furtini,
              E. C. Silva-Filho and J. A. Osajima, Journal of Environmental Chemical Engineering, 2019, 7, 103431.

3            B. Song, Z. Zeng, G. Zeng, J. Gong, R. Xiao, S. Ye, M. Chen, C. Lai, P. Xu and X. Tang, Advances in Colloid and Interface Science, 2019, 272, 101999.

4            A. Jędras, J. Matusik, E. Dhanaraman, Y.-P. Fu and G. Cempura, Langmuir, 2024, 40, 18163–18175.

5            A. Jędras, J. Matusik, J. Kuncewicz and K. Sobańska, Catal. Sci. Technol., 2025, 15, 6792–6804.

How to cite: Jędras, A. and Matusik, J.: False Starts and Silver Linings: A Photocatalytic Journey with Layered Double Hydroxides, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3077, 2026.

EGU26-4074 | Orals | EOS4.4

Instructive surprises in the hydrological functioning of landscapes 

James Kirchner, Paolo Benettin, and Ilja van Meerveld

BUGS can arise in individual research projects, but also at the level of communities of researchers, leading to shifts in the scientific consensus.  These community-level BUGS typically arise from observations that are surprising to (or previously overlooked by) substantial fractions of the research community.  In this presentation, we summarize several community-level BUGS in our field: specifically, key surprises that have transformed the hydrological community's understanding of hillslope and catchment processes in recent decades.  

Here are some examples.  (1) Students used to learn (and some still do today) that storm runoff is dominated by overland flow.  But stable isotope tracers have convincingly shown instead that even during storm peaks, streamflow is composed mostly of water that has been stored in the landscape for weeks, months, or years.  (2) Maps, and most hydrological theories, have typically depicted streams as fixed features of the landscape.  But field mapping studies have shown that stream networks are surprisingly dynamic, with up to 80% of stream channels going dry sometime during the year.  (3) Textbooks have traditionally represented catchment storage as a well-mixed box.  But tracer time series show fractal scaling that cannot be generated by well-mixed boxes, forcing a re-think of our conceptualization of subsurface storage and mixing.  (4) Waters stored in aquifers, and the waters that drain from them, have traditionally been assumed to share the same age.  But tracers show that waters draining from aquifers are often much younger than the groundwaters that are left behind, and this was subsequently shown to be an inevitable result of aquifer heterogeneity. 

Several examples like these, and their implications, will be briefly discussed, with an eye to the question: how can we maximize the chances for future instructive surprises?

How to cite: Kirchner, J., Benettin, P., and van Meerveld, I.: Instructive surprises in the hydrological functioning of landscapes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4074, 2026.

Coming from geosciences, we hopefully know what we want to do. Coming from numerics, however, we often know quite well what we are able to do and look for a way to sell it to the community. A few years ago, deep-learning techniques brought new life into the glaciology community. These approaches  allowed for simulations of glacier dynamics at an unprecedented computational performance and motivated several researchers to tackle the numerous open questions about past and present glacier dynamics, particularly in alpine regions. From another point of view, however, it was also tempting to demonstrate that the human brain is still more powerful than artificial intelligence by developing a new classical numerical scheme that can compete with deep-learning techniques concerning its efficiency.

Starting point was, of course, the simplest approximation to the full 3-D Stokes equations, the so-called shallow ice approximation (SIA). Progress was fast and the numerical performance was even better than expected. The new numerical scheme enabled simulations with spatial resolutions of 25 m on a desktop PC, while previous schemes did not reach simulations below a few hundred meters.

However, the enthusiasm pushed the known limitations of the SIA a bit out of sight. Physically, the approximation is quite bad on rugged terrain, particularly in narrow valleys. So the previous computational limitations have been replaced by physical limitations since high resolutions are particularly useful for rugged topographies. In other words, a shabby house has a really good roof now.

What are the options in such a situation?

  • Accept that there is no free lunch and avoid contact to the glacialogy community in the future.
  • Continue the endless discussion about the reviewers' opinion that a spatial resolution of 1 km is better than 25 m.
  • Find a real-world data set that matches the results of the model and helps to talk the problems away.
  • Keep the roof and build a new house beneath. Practically, this would be developing a new approximation to the full 3-D Stokes equations that is compatible to the numerical scheme and reaches an accuracy similar to those of the existing approximations.
  • Take the roof and put it on one of the existing solid houses. Practically, this would be an extension of the numerical scheme towards more complicated systems of differential equations. Unfortunately, efficient numerical schemes are typically very specific. So the roof will not fit easily and it might leak.

The story is open-ended, but there will be at least a preliminary answer in the presentation.

 

How to cite: Hergarten, S.: How useful is a new roof on a shabby house? An example from glacier modeling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4196, 2026.

EGU26-4587 | Posters on site | EOS4.4

The importance of describing simple methods in climate sensitivity literature 

Anna Zehrung, Andrew King, Zebedee Nicholls, Mark Zelinka, and Malte Meinshausen

“Show your working!” – is the universal phrase drilled into science and maths students to show a clear demonstration of the steps and thought processes used to reach a solution (and to be awarded full marks on the exam). 

Beyond the classroom, “show your working” becomes the methods section on every scientific paper, and is critical for the transparency and replicability of the study. However, what happens if parts of the method are considered assumed knowledge, or cut in the interests of a word count? 

An inability to fully replicate the results of a study became the unexpected glitch at the start of my PhD. Eager to familiarise myself with global climate model datasets, I set out to replicate the results of a widely cited paper which calculates the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) across 27 climate models. The ECS is the theoretical global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 relative to preindustrial levels. A commonly used method to calculate the ECS is to apply an ordinary least squares regression to global annual mean temperature and radiative flux anomalies. 

Despite the simplicity of a linear regression between two variables, we obtained ECS estimates for some climate models that differed from those reported in the original study, even though we followed the described methodology. However, the methodology provided only limited detail on how the raw climate model output – available at regional and monthly scales – was processed to obtain global annual mean anomalies. Differences in these intermediate processing steps can, in turn, lead to differences in ECS estimates.

Limited reporting of data-processing steps is common in the ECS literature. Whether these steps are considered assumed knowledge or deemed too simple to warrant explicit description, we demonstrate that, for some models, they can materially affect the resulting ECS estimate. While the primary aim of our study is to recommend a standardised data-processing pathway for ECS calculations, a secondary aim is to highlight the lack of transparency in key methodological details across the literature. A central takeaway is the importance of clearly documenting all processing steps – effectively, to “show your working” – and to emphasise the critical role of a detailed methods section.

How to cite: Zehrung, A., King, A., Nicholls, Z., Zelinka, M., and Meinshausen, M.: The importance of describing simple methods in climate sensitivity literature, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4587, 2026.

Observation of atmospheric constituents and processes is not easy. As atmospheric chemists, we use sensitive equipment, for example mass spectrometers, that we often set up in a (remote) location or on a moving platform for a few-weeks campaign to make in-situ observations. All this with the goal of explaining more and more atmospheric processes, and to verify and improve atmospheric models. However, glitches can happen anywhere in an experiment, be it in the experimental design, setup, or instrumental performance. Thus, complete data coverage during such a campaign is not always a given, resulting in gaps in (published) datasets. And the issue with air is that you can never go back and measure the exact same air again. Here, I would like to share some stories behind such gaps, and what we learned from them. This presentation aims to encourage early career researchers who might be struggling with feelings of failure when bugs, blunders and glitches happen in their experiments - you are not alone! I will share what we learned from these setbacks and how each of them improved our experimental approaches.

How to cite: Pfannerstill, E. Y.: Why are there gaps in your measurements? Sharing the stories behind the missing datapoints, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5494, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5494, 2026.

Over a 24-year research period, three successive experimental investigations led to three publications, each of which falsified the author’s preceding hypothesis and proposed a revised conceptual framework. Despite an initial confidence in having identified definitive solutions, subsequent experimental evidence consistently demonstrated the limitations and inaccuracies of earlier interpretations. This iterative process ultimately revealed that samples, in particular geological reference materials, sharing identical petrographic or mineralogical descriptions are not necessarily chemically equivalent and can exhibit markedly different behaviors during chemical digestion procedures. These findings underscore the critical importance of continuous hypothesis testing, self-falsification, and experimental verification in scientific research, particularly when working with reference materials assumed to be identical. I will be presenting data on the analysis of platinum group elements (PGE) and osmium isotopes in geological reference materials (chromitites, ultramafic rocks and basalts), which demonstrates the need for challenging matrices for method validation. 

How to cite: Meisel, T. C.: Self-falsification as a driver of scientific progress: Insights from long-term experimental research, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5771, 2026.

EGU26-6794 | ECS | Orals | EOS4.4

Back to square one (again and again): Finding a bug in a complex global atmospheric model   

Nadja Omanovic, Sylvaine Ferrachat, and Ulrike Lohmann

In atmospheric sciences, a central tool to test hypotheses are numerical models, which aim to represent (part of) our environment. One such model is the weather and climate model ICON [1], which solves the Navier-Stokes equation for capturing the dynamics and parameterizes subgrid-scale processes, such as radiation, cloud microphysics, and aerosol processes. Specifically, for the latter exists the so-called Hamburg Aerosol Module (HAM [2]), which is coupled to ICON [3] and predicts the evolution of aerosol populations using two moments (mass mixing ratio and number concentration). The high complexity of aerosols is reflected in the number of aerosol species (total of 5), number of modes (total of 4), and their mixing state and solubility. The module calculates aerosol composition and number concentration, their optical properties, their sources and sinks, and their interactions with clouds via microphysical processes. Aerosol emissions are sector-specific and based on global emission inventories or dynamically computed.

Within our work, we stumbled upon an interesting pattern occurrence in our simulations upon changing/turning off single emission sectors. If we, e.g., removed black carbon from aircraft emissions, the strongest changes emerged over the African continent, which is not the region where we were expecting to see the strongest response. Further investigations revealed that this pattern emerges independently of the emission sector as well as species, confirming our suspicion that we are facing a bug within HAM. Here, we want to present how we approached the challenge of identifying and tackling a bug within a complex module with several thousand lines of code.

 

[1] G. Zängl, D. Reinert, P. Ripodas, and M. Baldauf, “The ICON (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic) modelling framework of DWD and MPI-M: Description of the non-hydrostatic dynamical core,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 141, no. 687, pp. 563–579, 2015, ISSN: 1477-870X. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2378

[2] P. Stier, J. Feichter, S. Kinne, S. Kloster, E. Vignati, J. Wilson, L. Ganzeveld, I. Tegen, M. Werner, Y. Balkanski, M. Schulz, O. Boucher, A. Minikin, and A. Petzold, “The aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2005. DOI: 10.5194/acp-5-1125-2005

[3] M. Salzmann, S. Ferrachat, C. Tully, S. M¨ unch, D. Watson-Parris, D. Neubauer, C. Siegenthaler-Le Drian, S. Rast, B. Heinold, T. Crueger, R. Brokopf, J. Mülmenstädt, J. Quaas, H. Wan, K. Zhang, U. Lohmann, P. Stier, and I. Tegen, “The Global Atmosphere-aerosol Model ICON-A-HAM2.3–Initial Model Evaluation and Effects of Radiation Balance Tuning on Aerosol Optical Thickness,” Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, vol. 14, no. 4,e2021MS002699, 2022, ISSN: 1942-2466. DOI: 10.1029/2021MS002699

How to cite: Omanovic, N., Ferrachat, S., and Lohmann, U.: Back to square one (again and again): Finding a bug in a complex global atmospheric model  , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6794, 2026.

In situ cloud measurements are essential for understanding atmospheric processes and establishing a reliable ground truth. Obtaining these data is rarely straightforward. Challenges range from accessing clouds in the first place to ensuring that the instrument or environment does not bias the sample. This contribution explores several blunders and unexpected glitches encountered over fifteen years of field campaigns.

I will share stories of mountain top observations where blowing snow was measured instead of cloud ice crystals and the ambitious but failed attempt to use motorized paragliders for sampling. I also reflect on winter campaigns where the primary obstacles were flooding and mud rather than cold and snow. While these experiences were often frustrating, they frequently yielded useful data or led to new insights. One such example is the realization that drone icing is not just a crash risk but can also serve as a method for measuring liquid water content. By highlighting these setbacks and the successful data that emerged despite them, I aim to foster a discussion on the value of trial and error and persistence in atmospheric physics.

How to cite: Henneberger, J.: How Not to Measure a Cloud: Lessons from Fifteen Years of Fieldwork Failures, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8228, 2026.

EGU26-8359 | ECS | Posters on site | EOS4.4

Do trees save lives under climate change? It’s complicated  

Nils Hohmuth, Nora L. S. Fahrenbach (presenting), Yibiao Zou (presenting), Josephine Reek, Felix Specker, Tom Crowther, and Constantin M. Zohner

Forests are powerful climate regulators: Their CO2 uptake provides a global biogeochemical cooling effect, and in the tropics, this cooling is further strengthened by evapotranspiration. Given that temperature-related mortality is a relevant global health burden, which is expected to increase under climate change, we set out to test what we thought was a promising hypothesis: Can forests reduce human temperature-related mortality from climate change? 

To test this, we used simulated temperature changes to reforestation from six different Earth System Models (ESMs) under a future high-emission scenario, and paired them with age-specific population data and three methodologically different temperature-mortality frameworks (Cromar et al. 2022, Lee et al. 2019, and Carleton et al. 2022). We expected to find a plausible range of temperature-related mortality outcomes attributable to global future forests conservation efforts.

Instead, our idea ran head-first into a messy reality. Firstly, rather than showing a clear consensus, the ESMs produced a wide range of temperature responses to reforestation, varying both in magnitude and sign. This is likely due to the albedo effect, varying climatological tree cover and land use processes implemented by the models, in addition to internal variability which we could not reduce due to the existence of only one ensemble member per model. Consequently, the models disagreed in many regions on whether global forest conservation and reforestation would increase or decrease temperature by the end of the century.

The uncertainties deepened when we incorporated the mortality data. Mortality estimates varied by up to a factor of 10 depending on the ESM and mortality framework used. Therefore, in the end, the models could not even agree on whether forests increased or decreased temperature-related mortality. We found ourselves with a pipeline that amplified uncertainties of both the ESM and mortality datasets.

For now, the question remains wide open: Do trees save us from temperature-related deaths in a warming world, and if so, by how much?

 

* The first two authors contributed equally to this work.

How to cite: Hohmuth, N., Fahrenbach (presenting), N. L. S., Zou (presenting), Y., Reek, J., Specker, F., Crowther, T., and Zohner, C. M.: Do trees save lives under climate change? It’s complicated , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8359, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8359, 2026.

EGU26-10401 | ECS | Orals | EOS4.4

The empty mine: Why better tools do not help you find new diamonds 

Ralf Loritz, Alexander Dolich, and Benedikt Heudorfer

Hydrological modelling has long been shaped by a steady drive toward ever more sophisticated models. In the era of machine learning, this race has turned into a relentless pursuit of complexity: deeper networks and ever more elaborate architectures that often feel outdated by the time the ink on the paper is dry. Motivated by a genuine belief in methodological progress, I, like many others, spent considerable effort exploring this direction, driven by the assumption that finding the “right” architecture or model would inevitably lead to better performance. This talk is a reflection on that journey; you could say my own Leidensweg. Over several years, together with excellent collaborators, I explored a wide range of state-of-the-art deep-learning approaches for rainfall–runoff modelling and other hydrological modelling challenges. Yet, regardless of the architecture or training strategy, I repeatedly encountered the same performance ceiling. In parallel, the literature appeared to tell a different story, with “new” models regularly claiming improvements over established baselines. A closer inspection, however, revealed that rigorous and standardized benchmarking is far from common practice in hydrology, making it difficult to disentangle genuine progress from artefacts of experimental design. What initially felt like a failure to improve my models turned out to be a confrontation with reality. The limiting factor was not the architecture, but the problem itself. We have reached a point where predictive skill is increasingly bounded by the information content of our benchmark datasets and maybe more importantly by the way we frame our modelling challenges, rather than by model design. Like many others, I have come to believe that if we want to move beyond the current performance plateau, the next breakthroughs are unlikely to come from ever more complex models alone. Instead, as a community, we need well-designed model challenges, better benchmarks, and datasets that meaningfully expand the information available to our models to make model comparisons more informative.

How to cite: Loritz, R., Dolich, A., and Heudorfer, B.: The empty mine: Why better tools do not help you find new diamonds, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10401, 2026.

EGU26-13630 | ECS | Orals | EOS4.4

How NOT to identify streamflow events? 

Larisa Tarasova and Paul Astagneau

Examining catchment response to precipitation at event scale is useful for understanding how various hydrological systems store and release water. Many of such event scale characteristics, for example event runoff coefficient and event time scale are also important engineering metrics used for design. However, deriving these characteristics requires identification of discrete precipitation-streamflow events from continuous hydrometeorological time series.

Event identification is not at all a trivial task. It becomes even more challenging when working with very large datasets that encompass a wide range of spatial and temporal dynamics. Approaches range from visual expert judgement to baseflow-separation-based methods and objective methods based on the coupled dynamics of precipitation and streamflow. Here, we would like to present our experience in the quest to devise the “ideal” method for large datasets – and trust us, we tried, a lot. We demonstrate that expert-based methods can be seriously flawed simply by changing a few meta parameters, such as the length of displayed periods, baseflow-separation-based methods deliver completely opposite results when different underlying separation methods are selected, and objective methods suddenly fail when dynamics with different temporal scales are simultaneously present.

Ultimately, we realized that finding a one-size-fits-all method was not possible and that compromises had to be made to select sufficiently representative events across large datasets. Therefore, we advocate for pragmatic case-specific evaluation criteria and for transparency in event identification to make study results reproducible and fit for purpose, if not perfect.

How to cite: Tarasova, L. and Astagneau, P.: How NOT to identify streamflow events?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13630, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13630, 2026.

EGU26-14148 | Orals | EOS4.4 | Highlight

Buggy benefits of more fundamental climate models 

Bjorn Stevens, Marco Giorgetta, and Hans Segura

A defining attribute of global-storm resolving models is that modelling is replaced by simulation.  In addition to overloading the word “model”  this avails the developer of a much larger variety of tests, and brings about a richer interplay with their intuition.  This has proven helpful in identifying and correcting many mistakes in global-storm resolving models that traditional climate models find difficult to identify, and usually compensate by “tuning.”  It also means that storm-resolving models are built and tested in a fundamentally different way than are traditional climate models. In this talk I will review the development of ICON as a global storm resolving model to illustrate how this feature, of trying to simulate rather than model the climate system, has helped identify a large number of long-standing bugs in code bases inherited from traditional models; how this can support open development; and how sometimes these advantages also prove to be buggy.

How to cite: Stevens, B., Giorgetta, M., and Segura, H.: Buggy benefits of more fundamental climate models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14148, 2026.

EGU26-14374 | Orals | EOS4.4

The dangerous temptation of optimality in hydrological and water resources modelling 

Thorsten Wagener and Francesca Pianosi

Hydrological and water systems modelling has long been driven by the search for better models. We do so by searching for models or at least parameter combinations that provide the best fit to given observations. We ourselves have contributed to this effort by developing new methods and by publishing diverse case studies. However, we repeatedly find that searching for and finding an optimal model is highly fraught in the presence of unclear signal-to-noise ratios in our observations, of incomplete models and of highly imbalanced databases. We present examples of our own work through which we have realized that achieving optimality was possible but futile unless we give equal consideration to issues of consistency, robustness and problem framing. We argue here that the strong focus on optimality continues to be a hindrance for advancing hydrologic science and for transferring research achievements into practice – probably more so than in other areas of the geosciences.

How to cite: Wagener, T. and Pianosi, F.: The dangerous temptation of optimality in hydrological and water resources modelling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14374, 2026.

Among soil physical analyses, determination of the soil particle-size distribution (PSD) is arguably the most fundamental. The standard methodology combines sieve analysis for sand fractions with sedimentation-based techniques for silt and clay. Established sedimentation methods include the pipette and hydrometer techniques. More recently, the Integral Suspension Pressure (ISP) method has become available, which derives PSD by inverse modeling of the temporal evolution of suspension pressure measured at a fixed depth in a sedimentation cylinder. Since ISP is based on the same physical principles as the pipette and hydrometer methods, their results should, in principle, agree.

The ISP methodology has been implemented in the commercial instrument PARIO (METER Group, Munich). While elegant, the method relies on pressure change measurements with a resolution of 0.1 Pa (equivalent to 0.01 mm of water column). Consequently, the PARIO manual strongly advises avoiding any mechanical disturbance such as thumping, bumping, clapping, vibration, or other shock events. This warning is essentially precautionary, because to date no systematic experimental investigation of such disturbances has been reported.

To explore this issue, we prepared a single 30 g soil sample following standard PSD procedures and subjected it to 26 PARIO repeated measurement runs over a period of five months, each run lasting 12 h. Between runs, the suspension was remixed but otherwise not altered. The first ten runs (over ten days) were conducted without intentional disturbance to establish baseline repeatability. This was followed by eight runs with deliberately imposed and timed disturbances that generated single or repeated vibrations (“rocking and shocking”). After approximately two and five months, we conducted additional sets of five and three undisturbed runs, respectively.

We report how these mechanical disturbances, along with temperature variations during measurement and the time elapsed since sample pre-treatment, affected the derived PSD. The results provide a first quantitative assessment of how fragile—or robust—the ISP method and PARIO system really are when reality refuses to sit perfectly still.

 

How to cite: Nemes, A. and Durner, W.: Rocking and Shocking the PARIOTM: How Sensitive Is ISP-Based Particle-Size Analysis to Mechanical Disturbance?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14763, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14763, 2026.

EGU26-14852 | Posters on site | EOS4.4

Some Norwegian soils behave differently: is it an inheritance from marine sedimentation? 

Attila Nemes, Pietro Bazzocchi, Sinja Weiland, and Martine van der Ploeg

Predicting soil hydraulic behavior is necessary for the modeling of catchments and agricultural planning, particularly for a country like Norway where only 3% of land is suitable for farming. Soil texture is an important and easily accessible parameter for the prediction of soil hydraulic behavior. However, some Norwegian farmland soils, which formed as glacio-marine sediments and are characterized by a medium texture, have shown the hydraulic behavior of heavy textured soils. Coined by the theory behind well-established sedimentation-enhancing technology used in waste water treatment, we hypothesized that sedimentation under marine conditions may result in specific particle sorting and as a result specific pore system characteristics. To test this, we designed four custom-built devices to produce artificially re-sedimented columns of soil material to help characterize the influence of sedimentation conditions. We successfully produced column samples of the same homogeneous mixture of fine-sand, silt, and clay particles obtained by physically crushing and sieving (< 200 µm) subsoil material collected at the Skuterud catchment in South-East Norway, differing only in sedimentation conditions (deionized water vs 35 g per liter NaCl solution). Then, the inability of standard laboratory methods to measure the saturated hydraulic conductivity of such fine material, led us to “MacGyver” (design and custom-build) two alternative methodologies to measure that property, i.e. i) by adapting a pressure plate extractor for a constant head measurement and ii) by building a 10 m tall pipe-system in a common open area of the office, in order to increase the hydraulic head on the samples. There was a learning curve with both of those methods, but we have found that the salt-water re-sedimented columns were about five times more permeable than the freshwater ones, which was the complete opposite of our expectations. However, an unexpected blunder in the conservation of our samples suggests that our hypothesis should be further explored rather than dismissed. These contributions hint about the mechanisms that may underlie the anomalous hydraulic behaviour of certain Norwegian soils and raise new questions on the formation of marine clays, improving knowledge available for land managers and modellers.

 

How to cite: Nemes, A., Bazzocchi, P., Weiland, S., and van der Ploeg, M.: Some Norwegian soils behave differently: is it an inheritance from marine sedimentation?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14852, 2026.

EGU26-16619 | Orals | EOS4.4

The unknown knowns – the inconvenient knowledge in hydrogeology we do not like to use 

Okke Batelaan, Joost Herweijer, Steven Young, and Phil Hayes

“It is in the tentative stage that the affections enter with their blinding influence. Love was long since represented as blind…The moment one has offered an original explanation for a phenomenon which seems satisfactory, that moment affection for his intellectual child springs into existence…To guard against this, the method of multiple working hypotheses is urged. … The effort is to bring up into view every rational explanation of new phenomena, and to develop every tenable hypothesis respecting their cause and history. The investigator thus becomes the parent of a family of hypothesis: and, by his parental relation to all, he is forbidden to fasten his affections unduly upon any one” (Chamberlin, 1890).

The MADE (macro-dispersion) natural-gradient tracer field experiments were conducted more than 35 years ago. It aimed to determine field-scale dispersion parameters based on detailed hydraulic conductivity measurements to support transport simulation. A decade of field experiments produced a 30-year paper trail of modelling studies with no clear resolution of a successful simulation approach for practical use in transport problems.  As a result, accurately simulating contaminant transport in the subsurface remains a formidable challenge in hydrogeology.

What went awry, and why do we often miss the mark?

Herweijer et al. (2026) conducted a ‘back to basics’ review of the original MADE reports and concluded that there are significant inconvenient and unexplored issues that influenced the migration of the tracer plume and or biased observations. These issues include unreliable measurement of hydraulic conductivity, biased tracer concentrations, and underestimation of sedimentological heterogeneity and non-stationarity of the flow field. Many studies simulating the tracer plumes appeared to have ignored, sidestepped, or been unaware of these issues, raising doubts about the validity of the results.

Our analysis shows that there is a persistent drive among researchers to conceptually oversimplify natural complexity to enable testing of single-method modelling, mostly driven by parametric stochastic approaches. Researchers tend to be anchored to a specialised, numerically driven methodology and have difficulty in unearthing highly relevant information from ‘unknown known’ data or applying approaches outside their own specialised scientific sub-discipline. Another important aspect of these ‘unkowns knowns’ is the tendency to accept published data verbatim. Too often, there is no rigorous investigation of the original measurement methods and reporting, and, if need be, additional testing to examine the root cause of data issues.

Following the good old advice of Chamberlin (1890), we used a knowledge framework to systematically assess knowns, unknowns, and associated confidence levels, yielding a set of multi-conceptual models. Based on identified 'unknowns', these multi-models can be tested against reliable 'knowns' such as piezometric data and mass balance calculations.  

Chamberlin, T.C., 1890, The method of multiple working hypotheses. Science 15(366): 92-96. doi:10.1126/science.ns-15.366.92.

Herweijer J.C., S. C Young, P. Hayes, and O. Batelaan, 2026, A multi-conceptual model approach to untangling the MADE experiment, Accepted for Publication in Groundwater.

How to cite: Batelaan, O., Herweijer, J., Young, S., and Hayes, P.: The unknown knowns – the inconvenient knowledge in hydrogeology we do not like to use, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16619, 2026.

EGU26-17373 | Posters on site | EOS4.4

The Hidden Propagator: How Free-Slip Boundaries Corrupt 3D Simulations 

Laetitia Le Pourhiet

Free-slip boundary conditions are routinely used in 3D geodynamic modelling because they reduce computational cost, avoid artificial shear zones at domain edges, and simplify the implementation of large-scale kinematic forcing. However, despite their apparent neutrality, our experiments show that free-slip boundaries systematically generate first-order artefacts that propagate deep into the model interior and can severely distort the interpretation of continental rifting simulations.

Here we present a set of 3D visco-plastic models inspired by the South China Sea (SCS) that were originally designed to study the effect of steady-state thermal inheritance and pluton-controlled crustal weakening. Unexpectedly, in all simulations except those with a very particular inverted rheological profile (POLC), the free-slip boundary on the “Vietnam side” of the domain generated a persistent secondary propagator, producing unrealistic amounts of lithospheric thinning in the southwest corner. This artefact appeared irrespective of crustal rheology, seeding strategy, or the presence of thermal heterogeneities.

We identify three systematic behaviours induced by free-slip boundaries in 3D:
(1) forced rift nucleation at boundary-adjacent thermal gradients,
(2) artificial propagator formation that competes with the intended first-order rifting, and
(3) rotation or shearing of micro-blocks not predicted by tectonic reconstructions.

These artefacts originate from the inability of free-slip boundaries to transmit shear traction, which artificially channels deformation parallel to the boundary when lateral thermal or mechanical contrasts exist. In 3D, unlike in 2D, the combination of oblique extension and boundary-parallel velocity freedom leads to emergent pseudo-transform behaviour that is entirely numerical.

Our results highlight a key negative outcome: free-slip boundaries cannot be assumed neutral in 3D rift models, especially when studying localisation, obliquity, multi-propagator dynamics, or the competition between structural and thermal inheritance. We argue that many published 3D rift models may unknowingly include such artefacts.

 

How to cite: Le Pourhiet, L.: The Hidden Propagator: How Free-Slip Boundaries Corrupt 3D Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17373, 2026.

EGU26-18600 | Posters on site | EOS4.4

Data Disaster to Data Resilience: Lessons from CEDA’s Data Recovery  

Edward Williamson, Matt Pritchard, Alan Iwi, Sam Pepler, and Graham Parton

On 18 November 2025, a small error during internal data migration of between storage systems of the JASMIN data analysis platform in the UK led to a substantial part of the CEDA Archive being made temporarily unavailable online (but not lost!). The unfortunate incident caused serious disruption to a large community of users (and additional workload and stress for the team), it provided important learning points for the team in terms of:  

  • enhancing data security,  
  • importance of mutual support among professional colleagues,  
  • the value of clear and transparent communications with your users 
  • a unique opportunity to showcase the capabilities of a cutting-edge digital research infrastructure in the recovery and return to service with this “unscheduled disaster recovery exercise”. 

 

We report on the circumstances leading to the incident, the lessons learned, and the technical capabilities employed in the recovery. One example shows, nearly 800 Terabytes of data transferred from a partner institution in the USA in just over 27 hours, at a rate of over 8 Gigabytes per second using Globus. The ability to orchestrate such a transfer is the result of many years of international collaboration to support large-scale environmental science, and highlights the benefits of a federated, replicated data infrastructure built on well-engineered technologies.

How to cite: Williamson, E., Pritchard, M., Iwi, A., Pepler, S., and Parton, G.: Data Disaster to Data Resilience: Lessons from CEDA’s Data Recovery , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18600, 2026.

EGU26-19755 | ECS | Posters on site | EOS4.4

Opposite cloud responses to extreme Arctic pollution: sensitivity to cloud microphysics, or a bug? 

Rémy Lapere, Ruth Price, Louis Marelle, Lucas Bastien, and Jennie Thomas

Aerosol-cloud interactions remain one of the largest uncertainties in global climate modelling. This uncertainty arises because of the dependence of aerosol-cloud interactions on many tightly coupled atmospheric processes; the non-linear response of clouds to aerosol perturbations across different regimes; and the challenge of extracting robust signals from noisy meteorological observations. The problem is particularly acute in the Arctic, where sparse observational coverage limits model constraints, pristine conditions can lead to unexpected behaviour, and key processes remain poorly understood.

A common way to tackle the challenge of uncertainties arising from aerosol-cloud interactions in climate simulations is to conduct sensitivity experiments using cloud and aerosol microphysics schemes based on different assumptions and parameterisations. By comparing these experiments, key results can be constrained by sampling the range of unavoidable structural uncertainties in the models. Here, we apply this approach to a case study of an extreme, polluted warm air mass in the Arctic that was measured during the MOSAiC Arctic expedition in 2020. We simulated the event in the WRF-Chem-Polar regional climate model both with and without the anthropogenic aerosols from the strong pollution event to study the response of clouds and surface radiative balance. To understand the sensitivity of our results to the choice of model configuration, we tested two distinct, widely-used cloud microphysics schemes.

Initial results showed that the two schemes simulated opposite cloud responses: one predicted a surface cooling from the pollution that was reasonably in line with our expectations of the event, while the other predicted the opposite behaviour in the cloud response and an associated surface warming. These opposing effects seemed to suggest that structural uncertainties in the two schemes relating to clean, Arctic conditions was so strong that it even obscured our ability to understand the overall sign of the surface radiative response to the pollution.

However, since significant model development was required to couple these two cloud microphysics schemes to the aerosol fields in our model, there was another explanation that we couldn’t rule out: a bug in the scheme that was producing the more unexpected results. In this talk, we will explore the challenges of simulating the Arctic climate with a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model and highlight how examples like this underscore the value of our recent efforts to align our collaborative model development with software engineering principles and Open Science best practices.

How to cite: Lapere, R., Price, R., Marelle, L., Bastien, L., and Thomas, J.: Opposite cloud responses to extreme Arctic pollution: sensitivity to cloud microphysics, or a bug?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19755, 2026.

All statistical tools come with assumptions. Yet many scientists treat statistics like a collection of black-box methods without learning the assumptions. Here I illustrate this problem using dozens of studies that claim to show that solar variability is a dominant driver of climate. I find that linear regression approaches are widely misused among these studies. In particular, they often violate the assumption of ‘no autocorrelation’ of the time series used, though it is common for studies to violate several or all of the assumptions of linear regression. The misuse of statistical tools has been a common problem across all fields of science for decades. This presentation serves as an important cautionary tale for the Earth Sciences and highlights the need for better statistical education and for statistical software that automatically checks input data for assumptions.

How to cite: Steiger, N.: Pervasive violation of statistical assumptions in studies linking solar variability to climate, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19776, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19776, 2026.

EGU26-20122 | ECS | Posters on site | EOS4.4

Developing Matrix-Matched Empirical Calibrations for EDXRF Analysis of Peat-Alternative Growth Media 

Thulani De Silva, Carmela Tupaz, Maame Croffie, Karen Daly, Michael Gaffney, Michael Stock, and Eoghan Corbett

A key reason for the widespread use of peat-based growth media in horticulture is their reliable nutrient availability when supplemented with fertilisers. However, due to environmental concerns over continued peat-extraction and use, peat-alternatives (e.g., coir, wood fibre, composted bark, biochar) are increasingly being used commercially. These alternative media often blend multiple materials, making it crucial to understand elemental composition and nutrient interactions between components. This study evaluates whether benchtop Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence (EDXRF) can provide a rapid method for determining the elemental composition of peat-alternative components.

Representative growing media components (peat, coir, wood fibre, composted bark, biochar, horticultural lime, perlite, slow-release fertilisers, and trace-element fertiliser) were blended in different ratios to generate industry-representative mixes. Individual components and prepared mixes were dried and milled to ≤80 μm. An industry-representative mix (QC-50: 50% peat, 30% wood fibre, 10% composted bark, 10% coir, with fertiliser and lime additions) and 100% peat were analysed by EDXRF (Rigaku NEX-CG) for P, K, Mg, Ca, S, Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu and Mo, and compared against ICP-OES reference measurements. The instrument’s fundamental parameters (FP) method using a plant-based organic materials library showed large discrepancies relative to ICP-OES (relative differences: 268–390 084%) for most elements in both QC-50 and peat, with the exception of Ca in QC-50 (11%). These results confirm that the FP approach combined with loose-powder preparation is unsuitable for accurate elemental analysis of organic growing media.

An empirical calibration was subsequently developed using 18 matrix-matched standards (CRMs, in-house growing media and individual component standards). Matrix matching is challenging because mixes are mostly organic by volume, yet variable inorganic amendments (e.g., lime, fertilisers, and sometimes perlite) can strongly influence XRF absorption/enhancement effects. Calibration performance was optimised iteratively using QC-50 as the validation sample, until relative differences were <15% for all elements. When applied to 100% peat, agreement with ICP-OES results improved substantially for some macro-elements (e.g. Mg 10%, Ca 1%, S 19%) but remained poor for most trace elements (28–96%), demonstrating limited transferability of this calibration method across different elements and matrices tested.

Overall, these results demonstrate that loose powder preparation does not provide sufficiently robust accuracy for EDXRF analysis of organic growing media even with meticulous empirical matrix-matched calibration. We are therefore developing a pressed pellet method using a low-cost wax binder to improve sample homogeneity (packing density) and calibration transferability. Twenty unknown mixes will be analysed using both loose powder and pressed-pellet calibrations, and agreement with reference data (ICP-OES) will confirm method validation, supporting the development of EDXRF as a novel approach for growing media analysis.

How to cite: De Silva, T., Tupaz, C., Croffie, M., Daly, K., Gaffney, M., Stock, M., and Corbett, E.: Developing Matrix-Matched Empirical Calibrations for EDXRF Analysis of Peat-Alternative Growth Media, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20122, 2026.

EGU26-20375 | ECS | Posters on site | EOS4.4

From Field to File: challenges and recommendations for handling hydrological data 

Karin Bremer, Maria Staudinger, Jan Seibert, and Ilja van Meerveld

In catchment hydrology, long-term data collection often starts as part of a (doctoral) research project. In some cases, the data collection continues on a limited budget, often using the field protocol and data management plan designed for the initial short-term project. Challenges and issues with the continued data collection are likely to arise, especially when there are multiple changes in the people involved. It is especially difficult for researchers who were not directly involved in the fieldwork to understand the data and must therefore rely on field notes and archived data. They then often encounter issues related to inconsistent metadata, such as inconsistent date-time formats and inconsistent or missing units, missing calibration files, and unclear file and processing script organization.

While the specific issues may sound very case-dependent, based on our own and other’s experiences from various research projects, it appears that many issues recur more frequently than one might expect (or be willing to admit). In this presentation, we will share our experiences with bringing spatially distributed groundwater level data collected in Sweden and Switzerland from the field to ready-to-use files. Additionally, we provide recommendations for overcoming the challenges during field data collection, data organization, documentation, and data processing using scripts. These include having a clear, detailed protocol for in the fieldwork and the data processing steps, and ensuring it is followed. Although protocols are often used, they are frequently not detailed enough or are not used as designed. The protocols might also not take into account the further use of the data, such as for hydrological modelling, beyond field collection. 

How to cite: Bremer, K., Staudinger, M., Seibert, J., and van Meerveld, I.: From Field to File: challenges and recommendations for handling hydrological data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20375, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20375, 2026.

In 2014 we developed the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS), a conceptual rainfall-runoff model for catchments with shallow groundwater. Water managers and consultants were involved in model development. In addition, they sponsored the steps necessary for application: making an R package, user manual and tutorial, publishing these on GitHub and organising user days. WALRUS is now used operationally by several Dutch water authorities and for scientific studies in the Netherlands and abroad. When developing the model, we made certain design choices. Now, after twelve years of application in water management, science and education, we re-evaluate the consequences of those choices.

The lessons can be divided into things we learned about the model’s functioning and things we learned from how people use the model. Concerning the model’s functioning, we found that keeping the model representation close to reality has advantages and disadvantages. It makes it easy to understand what happens and why, but it also causes unrealistic expectations. Certain physically based relations hampered model performance because they contained thresholds, and deriving parameter values from field observations resulted in uncertainty and discussions about spatial representativeness.

Concerning the practical use, we found that the easy-to-use, open source R package with manual was indispensable for new users. Nearly all users preferred default options over the implemented user-defined functions to allow tailor-made solutions. Parameter calibration was more difficult than expected because the feedbacks necessary to simulate the hydrological processes in lowlands increase the risk of equifinality. In addition, lack of suitable discharge data for calibration prompted the request for default parameter values. Finally, the model was subject to unintended model use, sometimes violating basic assumptions and sometimes showing unique opportunities we had not thought of ourselves.

C.C. Brauer, A.J. Teuling, P.J.J.F. Torfs, R. Uijlenhoet (2014): The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): a lumped rainfall-runoff model for catchments with shallow groundwater, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2313-2332, doi:10.5194/gmd-7-2313-2014

How to cite: Brauer, C.: Re-evaluating the WALRUS rainfall-runoff model design after twelve years of application, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21915, 2026.

Disaster and risk management has been a very necessary field of both debate and action initiatives in today tricky consequences of climate change. While some regions of the earth are affected by heavy drought, other regions are affected by heavy rains that cause damages on infrastructure, economy, ecosystem and human lives. This contribute to vulnerability of cities.

Nowadays, in many cities of DR Congo, there is increasing of flooding risk and hydrological risk associated like erosion, gully erosion. In DR Congo (a tropical context) the months of November and December and between January and April, heavy rains use to occur and cause severe damages to people and theirs goods in vulnerable zones for instance the  major river basin. Before the end of 2023 from December 24 to December 29, 2023 episodes of rains affected Bukavu and DRC cities like Kananga and Kinshasa. The different episodes of flooding raise the question of risk management. In this process a necessity to consider geoethics as interconnection of geosciences with social, philosophy, and politics may allow to reinforce the debate on flood risk management.

Taking account of the precedent issues, it is important to question: in which way geoethical values can help to understand the link between population representation and perception of flooding risk and disaster management in Bukavu, DR Congo? To respond to this, this reflection will scrutinize in one hand, the geoethical principles as the basis of understanding of flood risk perception and representation in Bukavu and on the other hand, it will analyze the implication of different actors in the awareness building on disaster management.

The investigation concerning population representation and perception of flood risk, will better inform on people resilience and adaptive actions and how they cope with their natural risks impacts. In this reflection, we bring into the consideration of geoethical values to better understand population representation and perception of flood risk.

Key words: Disaster and risk management, Geoethics, Flood risk, Geoethical values or Geoethical principles, Bukavu, DR Congo

How to cite: Nshokano Mweze, J.-R.: Geoethical Consideration in the Understanding of Population Representation and Perception of Flooding Risk Management in Bukavu, DR Congo, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-36, 2026.

EGU26-195 | Orals | EOS4.1

Paving the way for geoethics pedagogy in Ghana: what students’ geoethical reasoning reveals 

Samuel Nyarko, Yvonne Loh, Maame Opokua Debrah, and Gwyneth Gebhart

The fragmented way ethics is currently taught in geoscience, often limited to narrow issues such as academic honesty, plagiarism, or research integrity, demonstrates the urgent need for a dedicated pedagogical framework to ensure that students understand the deeper social responsibilities and ethical implications of geoscience research and practice. In Ghana, the lack of empirical research on how students understand and apply geoethical principles necessitates the design of curricula that match students’ conceptual readiness and learning needs to address this gap. Without this evidence, it is also difficult to identify contextual examples that connect geoethics to students lived experiences.  Thus, in this study, we use relational ethics theory to assess how students perceive the relevance of geoethics in geoscience research and practice and how they take responsibility for ethical decisions, which is an essential step for designing deliberate, contextual, participatory, reflective, and proactive curricula. Through a sequential explanatory mixed methods design that used 193 surveys and 11 theoretical interviews, we identified that almost half (45.6%) of Ghanaian students were unaware of the ethics applied to the geosciences. Students also mostly conceptualized geoethics as a set of codified guidelines and principles, emphasizing truthfulness, integrity, and respect. However, over 62% held the belief that ethical behavior preserves reputation, while violations erode respect, reflecting how geoethics is being internalized as reputation management rather than as a framework for navigating complex societal and environmental relationships. Similarly, the majority of students emphasis of geoethics as personal conduct rather than societal and environmental responsibilities indicates a gap in how students conceptualize these relationships. Finally, although 76% of students showed awareness of geoethics in sustainability and geoheritage, their emphasis on economic and cultural preservation benefits suggests that they may view community engagement and stewardship as instrumental goals rather than long-term ethical responsibilities rooted in reciprocity and accountability. We also provide pedagogical approaches that move beyond rule-based compliance and help students appreciate geoethics as a framework for engaging with communities, negotiating values, and making informed and responsible decisions in complex settings.

How to cite: Nyarko, S., Loh, Y., Opokua Debrah, M., and Gebhart, G.: Paving the way for geoethics pedagogy in Ghana: what students’ geoethical reasoning reveals, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-195, 2026.

EGU26-387 | ECS | Posters on site | EOS4.1

From play to principle or not: Geoethical aspects of climate change simulation/games 

Pimnutcha Promduangsri, Nicolas Becu, and David Crookall

Climate change (CC) is a global challenge.  It requires communication to drive societal action (IPCC, 2022).  However, conveying the complexity of climate science and its socio-economic implications remains difficult.  One method that is increasingly being used to communicate and educate about CC is simulation/games, a global activity.  The question that arises is: Are CC games geoethical, and in what ways?

The field of geoethics provides a powerful framework for attempting to answer this question.  Geoethics holds that geoscientists have an ethical responsibility to communicate knowledge accurately and responsibly (Peppoloni & Di Capua, 2022).

This presentation reports the findings of a study analysing CC simulation/games.  Our research has highlighted important deficits in existing resources, deficits that can be qualified as unethical or wanting geoethically.  More specifically, we have identified three areas that raise geoethical concerns in regard to three aspects of CC simulation/games.  These are:

  • Design and implementation of CC simulation/games.  This includes the unethical absence of structured debriefing materials and guidelines essential for geoethical communication.
  • CC content of simulation/games.  This includes the unethical omission of certain CC topics in the simulation/games that we examined, for instance, climate justice and health.
  • Geoethical issues.  This is the total absence of any discussion or treatment of the geoethics of CC.

We also offer recommendations for improving the geoethics of CC simulation/games.

How to cite: Promduangsri, P., Becu, N., and Crookall, D.: From play to principle or not: Geoethical aspects of climate change simulation/games, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-387, 2026.

EGU26-1463 | Posters on site | EOS4.1

Designing Geoethics for Cultural Milieus: The Inverse Problem 

Martin Bohle

Studies in geoethics offer normative frameworks for the responsible conduct of geoscientists and citizens in their interactions with Earth's telluric aspects [1]. While the expression telluric aspects refers to the material attributes of the planetary habitat, e.g., the lithosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, and cryosphere, the related expression tellurian aspects refers to Earth & World, including agents, institutions, and norms. Witnessing planetary-scale anthropogenic change, geoethics configure tellurian practices, that is, how people construct human niches within the planetary habitat. Hence, geoethics mediates between Earth-system knowledge and moral–political judgment, i.e., geoethics are epistemic–moral hybrids [2].  

Applying systemism and scientific realism as philosophical guidance, the design principle of geoethics is derived: consistent philosophical insights and geoscientific insights combine to geoethical tenets ({T_j}). Tellurian practices ({A_{j,k,i}}) emerge when a social group (V_k) applies geoethical tenets ({T_j}) to a given telluric attribute of the planetary habitat, i.e., a geoscientific issue (G_i). The regular problem of geoethics is posed: given ({T_j}) and (V_k) tellurian practices ({A_{j,k,i}}) are deduced for handling (G_i). These practices are means–end complexes specified by an axiology underpinning the philosophical insights, for example, human flourishing (knowledge, welfare, liberty, solidarity, justice). However, conflicts arise in plural societies because groups (W_m) may not accept the geoethical framing ({T_j}) and therefore enact practices ({B_{j,m,i}}) for (G_i). Subsequently, the inverse problem of geoethics is posed: given a desired practice ({A_{j,k,i}}) for a specific geoscientific issue (G_i), which geoethical framing would different cultural milieus be willing to embrace?

To operationalise insights into the inverse problem of geoethics, a typology of symbolic cultural universes, i.e. milieus, is used. These milieus differ in how they interpret "what the world is" and "what ought to be done". Subsequently, these milieus also vary in the uptake of geoethics (high, moderate, partial, or low) and the ways they deal with it (rules, trusted brokers, inclusion mechanisms, or defensive closure). How to tackle 'managed retreat' in response to the predicted rise of global mean sea level illustrates how the inverse problem of geoethics becomes practically urgent [3]. Its systemic relevance arises from understanding the planetary habitat as a single, integrated Earth System [4], which establishes that worldviews, cultures, philosophies, and ethics themselves must be treated as endogenous system attributes. Hence, variants of geoethics designed for cultural milieus are urgently needed to drive just and effective tellurian practices.

  • Peppoloni S, Di Capua G (2021) Current Definition and Vision of Geoethics. In: Geo-societal Narratives. Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp 17–28
  • Potthast T (2024) Epistemic-Moral Hybrids as a Heuristic for Normative Epistemology in Practice. In: Flemmer R, Gill B, Kosgei J (eds) Proximity as Method. Routledge India, London, pp 68–77
  • Bohle M, Marone E (2022) Phronesis at the Human-Earth Nexus: Managed Retreat. Front Polit Sci 4:1–13. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpos.2022.819930
  • Nightingale AJ, Eriksen S, Taylor M, et al (2020). Beyond Technical Fixes: climate solutions and the great derangement. Clim Dev 12:343–352. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2019.1624495

 

How to cite: Bohle, M.: Designing Geoethics for Cultural Milieus: The Inverse Problem, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1463, 2026.

Emerging biological approaches to climate intervention raise core geoethical questions as synthetic biology advances toward the release of engineered cyanobacteria and other organisms designed to enhance carbon sequestration. As biogeoengineering moves toward field-scale deployment, geoscientists will increasingly be responsible for modeling, assessing, and monitoring impacts across ocean biogeochemistry, ecological networks, and Earth-system processes. Because living organisms can reproduce, evolve, and spread unpredictably across ecological and political boundaries, biogeoengineering demands a dedicated geoethical framework distinct from those used for conventional, non-living geoengineering interventions.

This contribution offers an anticipatory geoethical framework for living climate interventions, drawing on comparative insights from biotechnology regulation, environmental law, and international maritime law, which provides both jurisdictional complexity and a normative anchor for geoethical oversight of ocean-based interventions. Its novelty lies in integrating governance approaches from biotechnology and geoscience, foregrounding Global South perspectives and Indigenous epistemologies, and specifying concrete geoscientific responsibilities that must accompany biological climate interventions. The framework identifies four interdependent governance mechanisms that can be built upon existing international treaties to create enforceable, rather than voluntary, accountability. These mechanisms include liability rules to address transboundary harm and geo-colonial risks; mandatory impact assessments that integrate ocean biogeochemistry, ecological modeling, and biosafety analysis; conditional authorizations tied to geoscientifically informed thresholds of environmental safety; and shared-governance structures determining who holds authority to release engineered organisms into international waters or manipulate ocean ecosystems.

These mechanisms depend on active engagement by geoscientists, whose professional obligations must extend beyond traditional observational roles. Geoscientists must establish baseline environmental conditions, design monitoring networks capable of detecting unintended ecological cascades or genetic dispersal, model uncertainties across interconnected ocean systems, and communicate risks transparently. Because biological interventions interact with complex marine processes that are only partially understood, these responsibilities also include ethical deliberation and the co-production of monitoring criteria with affected communities. Meaningful inclusion of local and Indigenous knowledge systems is essential to ensure that populations most vulnerable to potential harms exercise real, rather than symbolic, influence over decisions that may affect their environments and livelihoods.

The Cartagena Protocol’s procedures for the transboundary movement of genetically modified organisms provide an important precedent for biosafety oversight. Yet extending these principles to biogeoengineering requires clarifying whether climate-intervention organisms fall within existing definitions or necessitate new regulatory provisions, particularly given their release into maritime spaces governed by complex jurisdictional regimes. Given risks of ecological cascades, genetic contamination, and unequal distributions of harm across regions, binding safeguards are necessary for any intervention that modifies ocean ecosystems through engineered microbes or biologically driven processes.

By articulating a pathway for just and responsible stewardship, this framework advances SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 14 (Life Below Water), and SDG 16 (Strong Institutions). It also contributes directly to responsible geoscience practice by offering foundations for future codes of conduct, funding criteria, and international decision-making norms. Ultimately, it shifts the central question from whether to intervene to how to govern such interventions ethically, equitably, and with full recognition of their planetary-scale implications.

How to cite: Greenbaum, D.: Toward a Geoethical Framework for Living Climate Interventions under International Maritime Law, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1493, 2026.

EGU26-1584 | ECS | Orals | EOS4.1

Towards Inclusive and Ethical SRM Governance in Pakistan: Bridging Policy Gaps and Global South Representation  

Abdul Waheed, Athar Hussain, Hassaan Sipra, and Kanwal Latif

Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) is a promising yet controversial climate intervention with complex scientific, ethical, legal, and socio-political implications. Effective governance is essential to  address these challenges prior to any experimentation proceeds, particularly for countries in the Global  South, like Pakistan, where SRM could have profound public health and governance impacts. Global governance discussions are largely driven by Global North institutions, which often marginalize the  concerns of the Global South. This study assesses Pakistan's readiness for SRM governance by analyzing  the coherence of its existing climate change and health policies, alongside expert perceptions. Using a mixed-methods approach, including policy content analysis, expert focus group  discussions, and stakeholder engagement workshops to facilitate deliberation among policymakers, scientists, health professionals, legal experts, civil society, and youth. Additionally, the study analyzes 14 climate change and health policies and gathers feedback from 49 experts through workshops and roundtable discussions. Preliminary policy analysis findings highlight critical gaps in Pakistan’s Climate Change and Public Health governance, current policies fail to address SRM, lack cross-sectoral coordination, and do not include adequate risk assessments, stakeholder engagement, or ethical safeguards. Despite the presence of key policy instruments, Pakistan is unprepared for SRM research, reinforcing global power asymmetries between the Global North and Global South.   The feedback from 49 experts highlights key gaps in Pakistan's Climate Change and Public Health governance, with 53% reporting no prior involvement in SRM projects, underscoring a lack of expertise. 51% viewed SRM as having a moderate role in addressing health challenges, yet no experts saw it as a significant solution. 55% and 61% identified government ministries and provincial departments as crucial for SRM integration, while 39% emphasized the importance of NGOs and civil society. Despite 57% rating existing coordination between health and climate sectors as effective, unclear roles, insufficient resources, and limited capacity remain key barriers. The need for clear institutional mandates (35%) and cross-sectoral coordination (37%) was also stressed, highlighting critical gaps in SRM policy governance.  Experts emphasized the need for stronger coordination between government ministries, NGOs, and civil society, alongside clear institutional mandates, capacity-building, and funding for SRM related research. The analysis of policies further reveals the lack of alignment between climate change and public health frameworks, with experts highlighting the need for better integration and local capacity for research and monitoring.In conclusion, our finding emphasizes the importance of inclusive dialogue, ethical oversight, and institutional reform to ensure that Pakistan—and the broader Global South—are not excluded from shaping global SRM governance. The study argues for Global South representation, the integration of health and ethical considerations into SRM policy, and the establishment of participatory decision-making structures to promote fair, scientifically informed, and accountable governance at both national and international levels.

How to cite: Waheed, A., Hussain, A., Sipra, H., and Latif, K.: Towards Inclusive and Ethical SRM Governance in Pakistan: Bridging Policy Gaps and Global South Representation , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1584, 2026.

EGU26-1607 | Posters on site | EOS4.1

A Systemist’s and Agathonist’s Take on Geoethics 

Eduardo Marone, Luis Marone, and Martin Bohle

Geoethics is an epistemic-normative practice that dynamically integrates geoscientific knowledge with ethical reasoning to guide tellurian entanglements of people and Earth. It highlights agency, virtue, responsibility, and knowledge as core tenets1. When geoethical thought is extended to public issues, it supports civic participation while maintaining its foundation in Earth System Science2,3.

Analysing geoethics through the prism of systemism, scientific realism, praxeology (means–end analysis), and agathonism (human flourishing), this study explores mutual conceptual alignments of geoethical practice and Mario Bunge’s philosophical program4,5:

  • Systemism holds that every entity is part of a system, composed of components, relations, and mechanisms across levels, including non-mechanical ones such as algorithms or LLMs.
  • Scientific realism & fallibilism: truth is objective but partial; knowledge grows by conjecture, test and error correction.
  • Praxeology (means–end): responsible action pursues value-guided ends using empirically supported means, with consequences assessed—including long-term effects—and endorses equality, liberty, democracy, solidarity, justice, and competence for institutions.
  • Axiology—Agathonism: ethics aims to promote human flourishing (health, knowledge, solidarity, justice, freedom), rejecting radical moral relativism while allowing contextual trade-offs. Bunge, drawing in part on Max Weber, rejected the idea of an absolute moral code and developed a humanist ethics that evaluates actions by their consequences, integrating commitments to truth and human well-being. His central maxim—“Enjoy life and help others live”—unites personal and collective flourishing.

Initially, systemism reframes agency as capabilities embedded in multi-level socio-ecological systems, requiring explicit description of components, relations, and feedback across scales. Realism and praxeology upgrade virtue and responsibility from personal dispositions to rule-governed routines, such as open data, code and access, registration of interests and affiliations, independent replication, reviews, and audits. Finally, agathonism specifies non-relativist ends (knowledge, welfare, liberty, solidarity, justice) and converts universal rights into side-constraints and metrics for practical trade-offs.

A proposed alignment checklist follows:

-System model (Are components, relations, and cross-scale mechanisms explicit?),

Ends–means coherence (Do chosen means have evidence for and safety given uncertainties?),

-Value vector (How are welfare, knowledge, freedom, solidarity, and justice advanced or constrained?),

-Evidence protocol (What are the reproducibility and transparency provisions (data, methods, replication funding)?),

-Participation efficacy (What binding levers do non-expert stakeholders possess, and how is impact measured?),

-Responsibility pathway (Who is answerable for unintended effects, and what are remediation triggers and funds?).

Overall, the proposed conceptual alignment moves geoethical practice from laudable aspirations to evidence-led, publicly justifiable, and purpose-oriented designable mechanisms that support human flourishing within planetary boundaries.

1Di Capua, G., Peppoloni, S., Bobrowsky, P. (2017). The Cape Town Statement on Geoethics. Annals of Geophysics, 60(0), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-7553.

2Bohle, M., & Marone, E. (2022). Phronesis at the Human-Earth Nexus: Managed Retreat. Frontiers in Political Science, 4(February), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpos.2022.819930.

3Marone, E. & Marone, L. (2025). Enlightening the Anthropocene through Supradisciplinary Science and Education. In  Dialogues with the Earth Sciences. Bohle M. & Nauen C. eds.  Springer International Publishing 978-3-031-97445-8(ISBN).

4Bunge, M. A. (2001). Philosophy in Crisis: The Need for Reconstruction. Prometheus Books.

5Bunge, M. A. (2006). Chasing Reality (Toronto St). University of Toronto Press. https://doi.org/10.3138/9781442672857.

How to cite: Marone, E., Marone, L., and Bohle, M.: A Systemist’s and Agathonist’s Take on Geoethics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1607, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1607, 2026.

EGU26-1745 | Posters on site | EOS4.1

A Geoethics-Informed Flow Process for Applying the Relational Geoscientific Pragmatism (RGP) Framework 

Giuseppe Di Capua and Silvia Peppoloni

Geoethics examines the ethical, cultural, and social dimensions of human interaction with the Earth system, promoting responsible and sustainable stewardship (Peppoloni and Di Capua, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98044-3). To address escalating global socio-ecological crises, the Relational Geoscientific Pragmatism (RGP) framework is proposed (Peppoloni and Di Capua, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-03754-1_2). RGP advocates context-sensitive, pragmatic solutions that harmonize scientific understanding with ethical principles and societal values, drawing inspiration from Ecological Humanism, a worldview recognizing human-nature interdependence and promoting progress that respects both human needs and ecosystem limits.

RGP is a structured, values-driven pathway designed to respond responsibly to geoethical challenges. Rather than prescribing rigid methods, it operationalizes universal geoethical principles and shared values in ways sensitive to local contexts. By integrating geosciences with social and environmental responsibility, RGP provides guidance for navigating complex practical challenges while ensuring ecological integrity and the well-being of present and future generations.

The RGP framework can be applied through a five-phase flow process that consistently integrates scientific rigor and ethical considerations into decision-making:

  • Phase I: Foundation & Analysis (Geoscience). This phase establishes essential geoscientific and contextual understanding of the challenge. It involves gathering objective, verifiable, and up-to-date data, applying rigorous analysis, and exercising professional judgment. The goal is informed, evidence-based decision-making on issues such as resource management or disaster risk reduction.
  • Phase II: Integration & Scope (Interdisciplinarity). Environmental challenges are inherently complex, requiring holistic approaches. This phase integrates knowledge from geosciences, social sciences, economics, law, and philosophy. Emphasis is placed on relationality between disciplines, structuring interdisciplinary collaboration to address specific geoethical challenges effectively.
  • Phase III: Values & Stakeholders (Relationality). This phase centers social justice by identifying stakeholders, particularly marginalized communities, and clarifying relevant universal principles (dignity, freedom, responsibility) alongside aspirational principles (awareness, justice, respect). Relationality extends to future generations and non-human realms, promoting intergenerational and environmental responsibility.
  • Phase IV: Deliberation & Scenario (Pragmatism). Action-oriented and solution-focused, this phase critically analyzes ethical dilemmas in human-environment interactions. It develops potential future scenarios, evaluating outcomes through the lenses of sustainability, equity, and environmental integrity.
  • Phase V: Action & Evaluation (Pragmatism). The final phase ensures participatory, transparent implementation. Scientists, policymakers, and communities collaboratively assess solutions for technical feasibility and societal alignment, balancing ecological integrity with social well-being.

In conclusion, the RGP flow process provides decision-makers with a systematic methodology for addressing contemporary geoethical challenges. By integrating scientific rigor, ethical reflection, and stakeholder engagement, it fosters conscious, informed, and responsible planetary citizenship.

How to cite: Di Capua, G. and Peppoloni, S.: A Geoethics-Informed Flow Process for Applying the Relational Geoscientific Pragmatism (RGP) Framework, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1745, 2026.

EGU26-1896 * | Orals | EOS4.1 | Highlight

Fostering the ethical use of Artificial Intelligence in the Geosciences 

Paul Cleverley, Mrinalini Kochupillai, Mark Lindsay, and Emma Ruttkamp-Bloem

A set of practical and actionable recommendations for the ethical application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the geosciences is presented by the Task Group on AI Ethics in Geosciences under the IUGS Commission on Geoethics. While geoscientists have long used statistical and machine learning methods, the rapid adoption of frontier and generative AI introduces amplified risks alongside opportunities for scientific discovery and productivity. AI holds immense potential to support the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), for example by predicting natural resource locations, enhancing understanding of deep geological time, and assisting with natural hazard prediction such as earthquakes and landslides.

However, the rapid development and deployment of AI, combined with high-profile ethical concerns, demands clear, actionable guidance. Current high-level ethical frameworks, such as those from UNESCO, lack the practical detail needed for implementation in the geosciences. This report addresses that gap by providing guidance for academic, industry, governmental, and non-governmental geoscientists, society leaders, and policymakers.

The methodology adopted a robust approach informed by Critical Realism—encouraging attention to hidden structures and power dynamics—and Virtue Ethics—focusing on the character of a “good and wise geoscientist.” The investigation combined a literature review, longitudinal analysis of deployed AI systems, and counterfactual future thinking, all triangulated against the UNESCO Recommendations on AI Ethics and the International Science Council (ISC) AI Analytical Framework.

Eight key themes were identified to address current and anticipated ethical challenges in the geosciences. These recommendations aim to foster a responsible, just, and sustainable integration of AI that serves the public good and upholds scientific integrity:

  • Use AI Responsibly: Treat AI as a tool to support, not replace, geoscientist judgment, avoiding fully autonomous decisions that impact people or ecosystems.
  • Promote Transparency and Explainability: Ensure research is open, traceable, and reproducible, with clear disclosure of data sources, limitations, and uncertainties, particularly for “black box” models.
  • Consider Bias and Fairness: Use diverse, representative datasets and actively address biases that could affect marginalized or Indigenous communities.
  • Obtain Informed Consent and Protect Personal Data: Explicit consent is required for AI training data, and a privacy-by-design approach should be applied, especially for sensitive information.
  • Practice Participatory Design and Community Engagement: Engage meaningfully with communities affected by AI outputs, following the principle “Nothing about us without us.”
  • Advocate for Environmental Protection: Weigh the environmental costs of AI (energy, water, e-waste) against its scientific benefits, promoting sustainable practices such as energy-efficient algorithms.
  • Integrity in Science, Publishing, and Education: Disclose AI use in research, verify AI-generated assertions, and ensure AI does not undermine critical thinking or scientific honesty.
  • Consider Geopolitics: International institutions should remain neutral, avoiding endorsement of cloud platforms that centralize data and risk eroding data sovereignty or reinforcing inequities (“algorithmic colonization”).

The report (https://www.geoethics.org/_files/ugd/5195a5_5dcf66f87cca492c958319c3f4cdeffb.pdf) proposes a high-level roadmap for continuous improvement, including practical ethical impact and risk assessments. These recommendations serve as a call to action to safeguard geosciences and ensure responsible stewardship of the Earth.

How to cite: Cleverley, P., Kochupillai, M., Lindsay, M., and Ruttkamp-Bloem, E.: Fostering the ethical use of Artificial Intelligence in the Geosciences, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1896, 2026.

The European Union’s transition to a green, digital, and secure economy depends on reliable access to critical raw materials (CRMs), which are essential for technologies such as batteries, semiconductors, renewable energy systems, and defence equipment. Despite their strategic importance, the EU remains highly dependent on imports, sourcing 65–100% of many CRMs from non-EU countries, often from a small number of geopolitically sensitive suppliers. This concentration exposes Europe to significant economic and strategic risks.

Disruptions to CRM supply chains caused by geopolitical tensions, export restrictions, or trade conflicts could have severe consequences. The policy brief estimates potential annual economic losses of €100–200 billion across manufacturing, transport, and energy sectors. Even a 1% reduction in economic growth linked to supply chain instability would amount to approximately €175 billion in lost value per year. These risks threaten industrial competitiveness, employment, price stability, and the EU’s ability to meet climate and digital transition targets.

To address these vulnerabilities, the brief proposes four strategic policy pillars to strengthen the EU’s resilience to CRM supply disruptions.

The first pillar focuses on securing the value of resources at the point of production. It aims to increase domestic extraction, processing, and recycling of CRMs within the EU and trusted partner regions. Key recommendations include establishing a €500 billion European “Value of Resources” fund, accelerating permitting and co-funding of sustainable mining and refining projects under the Critical Raw Materials Act, and strengthening secondary raw materials markets through harmonised recycling standards and urban mining. Strategic stockpiling, circular economy measures, and the development of regional production clusters are also proposed, with the objective of increasing EU self-sufficiency by 20% by 2030.

The second pillar seeks to align the interests of rights-holders and stakeholders across the CRM value chain. It calls for transparent governance frameworks, including due diligence and traceability requirements under EU legislation, fair benefit-sharing with partner countries through Global Gateway investments, and stronger social licence to operate via robust CSR and ESG practices. Public–private coordination mechanisms, such as CRM roundtables, are recommended to align industrial needs with policy objectives.

The third pillar addresses risk management and opportunity capture. It proposes enhanced risk monitoring through the International Raw Materials Observatory, stronger screening of foreign investments in strategic CRM assets, and increased support for innovation, industrial pilots, and recycling technologies. Blended public and private financing is intended to diversify supply sources and build strategic reserves, reducing disruption risks.

The fourth pillar focuses on safeguarding knowledge, digital infrastructure, and communication. Protecting intellectual property, deploying EU-wide digital traceability systems, investing in skills and research networks, and improving public awareness are seen as essential to maintaining Europe’s technological leadership.

Overall, the brief concludes that CRM dependency represents a systemic risk comparable to energy insecurity. Implementing these four pillars would strengthen the EU’s strategic autonomy, economic resilience, and sustainable growth.

How to cite: Hermann, L. and Marijanski, M.: Four-pillar policy recommendation to increase the European Union’s critical raw material resilience, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2615, 2026.

EGU26-2863 | Orals | EOS4.1

ClimarisQ: What can we learn by playing a game for climate education? 

Davide Faranda, Lucas Taligrot, Pascal Yiou, and Nada Caud

ClimarisQ is both a web- and mobile-based game developed by the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace to support climate change communication through interactive decision-making. This paper presents an exploratory evaluation of the game based on a post-release questionnaire completed by 77 users. Respondents rated ClimarisQ positively in terms of usability and scientific credibility. Self-reported outcomes indicate that the game mainly supported reflection on the complexity, trade-offs, and uncertainty of climate-related decision-making, rather than the acquisition of factual knowledge, particularly among users with prior expertise. The respondent group was predominantly composed of highly educated and climate-aware adults, which limits generalization to other audiences. These results suggest that ClimarisQ can function as a complementary tool for climate education and outreach, especially when used in facilitated settings that encourage discussion and interpretation.

How to cite: Faranda, D., Taligrot, L., Yiou, P., and Caud, N.: ClimarisQ: What can we learn by playing a game for climate education?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2863, 2026.

EGU26-4110 | Orals | EOS4.1

Results of the Skeptical Science experiment and impacts on relaunched website 

Bärbel Winkler and John Cook

Skeptical Science is a highly-visited website featuring 250 rebuttals of misinformation about climate change and climate solutions. The rebuttals are written at multiple levels—basic, intermediate, and advanced—in order to reach as wide an audience as possible. Since November 2021, we have collected survey data from visitors, assessing the effectiveness of rebuttals in reducing acceptance in climate myths and increasing acceptance of climate facts. A key goal of misinformation interventions is to increase reader discernment, the difference between belief in facts and belief in myths. While there was overall an increase in discernment, with the decrease in agreement with myths greater than the decrease in agreement with facts, we also found that belief in climate facts decreased for at least some rebuttals - an unwelcome result running counter to Skeptical Science’s goals. Due to the survey design and not collecting any information about why readers selected a specific option, we can only make educated guesses about what may have led to selecting a specific option. In parallel to running the experiment on our website, we have also been working on a website relaunch project which will address some of the shortcomings already identified. One new feature will be the inclusion - where applicable - of logical fallacies used in climate myths, so that rebuttals will include all three elements of a successful debunking: fact, myth and fallacy. In my presentation, I'll also highlight some of the other updated or new features this website relaunch will include.

How to cite: Winkler, B. and Cook, J.: Results of the Skeptical Science experiment and impacts on relaunched website, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4110, 2026.

EGU26-4534 | Orals | EOS4.1

Ecological Moral Voluntarism is a Corollary of Ethical Education 

Jeannine G.M. de Caluwe, Guido J.M. Verstraeten, and Willem W. Verstraeten

Why should humans protect biodiversity? Is it only because nature is beautiful, or because every species plays a role in the ecosystem? Some argue that all living beings have inherent moral value, as proposed by Deep Ecology. However, scientific or philosophical arguments alone are often not enough to motivate people to care about nature. As David Hume suggested, morality is based more on feelings than on pure reason. Protecting ecosystems therefore depends on human choice and moral commitment. Since the Earth cannot defend its own inherent value, caring for the planet ultimately relies on human responsibility.

Both secular and religious forms of ethical education can help develop this sense of care for biodiversity. Secular ethics often emphasize considering the interests of all beings, while monotheistic religions such as Judaism, Christianity, and Islam stress responsibility toward creation through a covenant between humans and God.

To support this moral awareness, we have developed “Noah’s Ark” a cross-cultural and interreligious educational project for primary school children in Flanders. The project aims to encourage respect for all living and non-living parts of the environment and to promote dialogue between different cultural and religious backgrounds, using the story of Noah’s Ark as a shared symbol.

In the first step, children aged 7–8 chose which animals should be allowed on the ark. In addition to familiar and popular animals, they included less attractive species such as spiders, snakes, and bees, as well as animals considered unclean in some traditions, such as pigs. This showed an inclusive view of life.

Next, the children expressed their feelings through drawings of the ark during the flood. Although the storm was frightening, they saw the ark as a place of safety for all life. They then imagined daily life on the ark, which helped them feel connected not only to other humans but also to animals and the natural environment.

Finally, the children shared their thoughts and feelings with one another. This exchange helped them develop new attitudes of care and responsibility toward all life on Earth.

How to cite: de Caluwe, J. G. M., Verstraeten, G. J. M., and Verstraeten, W. W.: Ecological Moral Voluntarism is a Corollary of Ethical Education, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4534, 2026.

EGU26-5020 | Posters on site | EOS4.1

Transformative Agency in Climate Education (TRACE): A Project Linking Climate Literacy, Individual and Collective Action 

Thomas Schubatzky, Sarah Wildbichler, Matthias Fasching, Johanna Kranz, and Giulia Tasquier

Climate change education has made substantial progress in understanding how to foster students’ scientific understanding and individual pro-environmental engagement (Aeschbach et al., 2025; Wildbichler et al., 2025). At the same time, recent research points to a persistent tendency to frame climate action only as an individual responsibility, while collective, strategic, and political dimensions of agency remain underrepresented in formal education (Kranz et al., 2022). This narrow perspective risks depoliticising climate education and limiting students’ understanding of how individual and collective forms of action interact within democratic societies. The Erasmus+-Project TRACE (Transformative Agency in Climate Education) addresses this challenge by developing and empirically investigating an educational design that explicitly integrates individual and collective as well as strategic and political dimensions of climate action. Rather than positioning these forms of agency as competing or hierarchical, TRACE conceptualises them as complementary and mutually reinforcing components of climate action (Otto et al., 2020).

In the project, we develop a digital self-reflection tool that supports students’ metacognitive reflection on different climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, including individual, collective, strategic, and political actions. The tool is not intended to prescribe “better” forms of action, but to make students’ assumptions, uncertainties, stances, attitudes and knowledge gaps explicit and open to discussion. Building on these reflections, TRACE implements a modular student lab in which learners engage with climate science, emissions pathways, and decision-making processes through specifically designed activities. Particular emphasis is placed on connecting personal engagement with collective processes, such as policy-making, institutional change, and democratic participation. The project further investigates how such learning environments can be transferred into everyday school teaching through teacher professional development and open educational resources. By addressing the de-politicisation of climate education while avoiding simplistic dichotomies between individual and collective responsibility, TRACE aims to contribute to empirically grounded design principles for climate education that support informed, reflective, and democratically embedded climate agency.

The contribution presents the overall design and research logic of TRACE, including its theoretical grounding, methodology, and cross-national implementation. Particular emphasis is placed on the self-reflection tool, which is discussed in detail with regard to its conceptual framework, design features, and role within the broader learning environment.

How to cite: Schubatzky, T., Wildbichler, S., Fasching, M., Kranz, J., and Tasquier, G.: Transformative Agency in Climate Education (TRACE): A Project Linking Climate Literacy, Individual and Collective Action, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5020, 2026.

EGU26-5772 | Orals | EOS4.1

An Ethical Framework for Climate Intervention Research: Keeping Pace with Rapidly Evolving Needs  

Billy Williams, Mark Shimamoto, Janice Lachance, Lexi Shultz, and Hisayo Harlan

Climate change requires urgent and coordinated global action. Increasingly, the world is considering technology-based climate intervention approaches, often called geoengineering, for many different potential applications—from terrestrial, to oceans, to stratospheric research areas of interest. Many of these approaches are untested and the consequences are not yet well understood. While climate intervention research has been justified as necessary to expand the range of options available to policy makers in the future, many questions remain on efficacy, risks and potential harm versus potential benefits.

The need for an ethical framework to help guide this area of growing research interest has never been more acute, as both governmental and private sector funding has accelerated in this area over the past 18 months. This presentation will review recent developments in this field of climate geoengineering research and the continued challenges and opportunities for ensuring ethical research governance practices, in addition to the need to address emissions reduction.

We will discuss the foundations for the AGU Ethical Framework Principles for Climate Intervention Research (now available in 10 languages) the key principles, the process by which they were developed, and the ongoing process for global dissemination and engagement.

How to cite: Williams, B., Shimamoto, M., Lachance, J., Shultz, L., and Harlan, H.: An Ethical Framework for Climate Intervention Research: Keeping Pace with Rapidly Evolving Needs , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5772, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5772, 2026.

Despite the surge in enthusiasm for regenerative agriculture as a guiding concept, there has been very little conceptual or philosophical literature on the criteria for regenerative agriculture or its underlying rationale. Here, I provide a context-setting discussion of collected works on regenerative agriculture, noting their emphasis on specific agricultural practices rather than theoretical specification or defense of the concept. I then propose an approach that blends an ecological account of renewable elements in agricultural systems into a comprehensive ethics for evaluating alternative configurations of production. Conceptualized in this way, regenerative agriculture offers a framework that integrates two different disciplines—agricultural science and environmental ethics—leading us to a deeper understanding of the challenges and solutions towards more sustainable agriculture. This talk builds on two recent publications in npj Sustainable Agriculture (Congreves 2025a, 2025b) and examines the concept, definition, and philosophy. 

How to cite: Congreves, K.: Regenerative agriculture: searching for meaning via definition and philosophy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5948, 2026.

EGU26-7672 | Orals | EOS4.1

Meeting the Moment: Sustaining Climate Science and Engagement in Shifting Policy Environments 

Janice Lachance, Brandon Jones, and Mark Shimamoto

Rapid shifts in U.S. climate policy have introduced uncertainty around the continuity of national assessments and participation in international scientific processes, raising concerns about maintaining the evidence-base for informed decision-making. This presentation examines how scientific societies, research institutions, and individual researchers are coordinating across disciplinary and national boundaries to safeguard the integrity and accessibility of climate science during periods of geopolitical and policy volatility. It will highlight collaborative strategies that reinforce resilience across the climate enterprise. These include a new cross-society journal access initiative led by AGU and the American Meteorological Society, designed to ensure uninterrupted global access to peer-reviewed climate . The presentation also explores coordinated nomination pathways and access agreements that enable U.S. -based scientists to continue contributing to international assessment processes, such as IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report, despite shifting domestic policy priorities. Beyond these examples, the presentation situates these efforts within a broader framework of institutional coordination and transnational scientific networks. By leveraging partnerships across disciplinary and national boundaries, the research community is developing adaptive mechanisms to sustain engagement, preserve scientific continuity, and uphold the principles of open science. These practical models offer a roadmap for global research communities navigating similar disruptions, underscoring the critical role of scientific societies in bridging gaps between research, policy and international engagement.

How to cite: Lachance, J., Jones, B., and Shimamoto, M.: Meeting the Moment: Sustaining Climate Science and Engagement in Shifting Policy Environments, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7672, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7672, 2026.

EGU26-7691 | Posters on site | EOS4.1

From Training to Action: Building concrete pathways for Workplace Well-Being 

Agata Sangianantoni, Valeria De Paola, Giuliana Rubbia, and Giovanna Maracchia

Geoscientists contribute every day to advancing the understanding of the Earth and to supporting decisions that deeply affect people, communities, and ecosystems. Their responsibility extends beyond scientific excellence stricto sensu: it also involves ethical awareness, attention to social impacts and care for the human dimension of scientific practice.

In this context, training plays a fundamental role in fostering a healthy, safe and efficient working environment by promoting awareness, mutual respect and shared responsibility within the scientific community.

Organizational well-being is commonly defined as an organization’s ability to promote and maintain the physical, psychological and social well-being of its employees. Studies have shown that the most effective institutions are those characterized by satisfied staff and a welcoming, participatory internal climate. Motivation, collaboration, involvement, effective information flow, flexibility and trust contribute significantly to workers’ mental and physical health and, in a research environment, ultimately enhance the quality and societal impact of research. Achieving genuine well-being requires the combined contribution of multiple actors, policies and institutional frameworks.

At the European level, several initiatives and projects have paved the way for the implementation of concrete policies aimed at preventing gender-based violence, harassment and discrimination in research and higher education environments. In parallel, efforts within the Coalition for Advancing Research Assessment (CoARA) seek to reform research evaluation systems toward a more inclusive direction. These reforms aim to recognize a broader range of research outputs and professional profiles, valuing contributions beyond traditional publications, such as datasets, software, teaching, mentorship, and outreach, while striving for more transparent and bias-aware evaluation processes.

Within this framework, this contribution presents the case study of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), a leading Italian Research Institution that has undertaken targeted training initiatives addressing anti-discrimination, mobbing and workplace distress. These initiatives recognize education and capacity building as key drivers for well-being, inclusion, and organizational effectiveness. As part of this approach, two employees have completed dedicated training programs to serve as Confidential Counsellors and are engaged in continuous professional development to remain effective, responsive to emerging challenges, and aligned with evolving social, ethical and organizational contexts. Training has led to tangible outcomes by translating knowledge into practice and activating a collaborative internal network that supports concrete actions toward a healthier and more effective working environment.

Furthermore, a collaborative framework has been established among research institutions to enable the exchange of Confidential Counsellors, fostering mutual support, shared expertise and cross-institutional learning.

This document highlights the results of this cooperative network, emphasizing how the sharing of best practices and ethical principles can provide a robust support system for individuals experiencing harassment or workplace distress.

Synergies among well-being stakeholders have been further strengthened by organizing thematic information days and workshops, contributing to the development of a shared culture of respect and institutional health.

Ensuring dignity and protection in the workplace is not merely a legal obligation but a strategic investment. A research environment grounded in respect, transparency, and care fosters a more responsible scientific community and delivers long-term benefits to society as a whole.

How to cite: Sangianantoni, A., De Paola, V., Rubbia, G., and Maracchia, G.: From Training to Action: Building concrete pathways for Workplace Well-Being, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7691, 2026.

EGU26-8661 | ECS | Orals | EOS4.1

Best practices for geosciences in the time of crises 

Shahzad Gani

Geopolitical crises increasingly determine where geoscientists can work, who may collaborate, and which forms of knowledge are considered appropriate. In response, scientific institutions have refined best practices that enable engagement with war, displacement, and environmental harm while preserving neutrality, excellence, and uninterrupted research activity—without jeopardizing institutional rankings, benchmarking exercises, or global competitiveness indicators.

Three core guidelines are outlined. First, ethical engagement should be articulated through statements, panels, and codes of conduct that acknowledge suffering in general terms while avoiding reference to specific actors, histories, or responsibilities. Second, international collaboration should be promoted in principle, provided it remains compatible with security frameworks, funding rules, visa regimes, journal indices, and ranking-sensitive performance metrics. Third, moral and political tensions are most efficiently managed by delegating responsibility to individual researchers, early-career scientists, and affected communities, thereby allowing institutions to remain impartial while safeguarding reputation, citation aggregates, and position in global league tables.

Taken together, these practices demonstrate how geosciences can continue to produce knowledge during crises while carefully limiting institutional accountability. The framework highlights neutrality not as an ethical position, but as an optimized governance strategy for maintaining visibility, stability, and rank.

This is satire, or is it?

How to cite: Gani, S.: Best practices for geosciences in the time of crises, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8661, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8661, 2026.

EGU26-8782 | Orals | EOS4.1

Humanising Natural History Collections: Putting CARE principles into practice in the geosciences in Australia 

Simon Haberle, Annika Herbert, Simon Goring, and Jessica Blois

Australia's natural history collections represent irreplaceable scientific infrastructure that underpins our understanding of deep-time biological and geological diversity and environmental change. As we confront accelerating biodiversity loss and climate change, these collections provide essential baselines for understanding ecosystem responses to environmental stress. Combined with deep temporal perspectives offered by palaeoecological data, in this case held within the Indo-Pacific Pollen Database (IPPD - NEOTOMAdb), this information is particularly valuable for predicting future ecosystem dynamics and informing conservation strategies. This presentation will explore: (i) how Australia’s natural history collections serve as critical infrastructure for systematic palaeoecological research, highlighting their role in preserving Australia's environmental heritage while enabling cutting-edge research into past, present, and future ecosystem dynamics; (ii) pathways to adopt explicit CARE (Collective Benefit, Authority to Control, Responsibility, Ethics) principles that preference Indigenous Data Sovereignty in the governance of the collected biological or geological data; and (iii) examples of ongoing co-designed projects with Indigenous community partners that explicitly preference the rights of Indigenous Peoples to determine how data about them and their lands will be collected and used.

How to cite: Haberle, S., Herbert, A., Goring, S., and Blois, J.: Humanising Natural History Collections: Putting CARE principles into practice in the geosciences in Australia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8782, 2026.

EGU26-10555 | ECS | Orals | EOS4.1

Translating causal models into environmental practice 

Vasileios Sitokonstantinou

Many decisions in agriculture and environmental management now rely on digital information including satellite indicators, reanalysis climate datasets, in-situ sensors and analytics from digital farm platforms. These data are used in predictive models to forecast yields, detect crop stress or classify land use. Prediction is useful, but it does not answer a central question in many decision-making contexts: what would have happened if we acted differently?

Causal machine learning has been proposed as a way to address this gap (Sitokonstantinou et al., 2025). Instead of predicting outcomes, causal ML aims to estimate the effects of policies, management practices or climate shocks and to support decisions about interventions. In my own work, ranging from estimating the impact of humanitarian aid on food security to evaluating the heterogeneous effect of crop practices and digital agricultural advisory services on ecosystem services, causal ML offers a structured way to work with these questions.

At the same time, causal ML raises ethical and epistemic issues that are common across environmental data science. The causal questions that can be asked and the actions that appear reasonable, depend strongly on how socio-ecological processes are translated into variables, interventions and mechanisms. This contribution examines this process of translation in causal ML for environmental and agricultural applications and shows how it is shaped by ontological choices, data availability and institutional priorities.

Ontological choices affect how causal entities are defined. For example, in evaluations of digital agricultural advisory services, “adoption of advice” is often treated as a binary variable. This framing reduces complex farmer decision making, interpretation, partial use, experimentation and risk management, into a single model variable. As a result, the causal effect being estimated reflects the model’s definition of adoption rather than farmers’ actual behaviour.

Data availability further limits what can be studied causally. In analyses of crop diversification or rotation effects, Earth observation metrics such as vegetation indices are often used as proxies for management practices because detailed field level data are unavailable. Consequently, estimated treatment effects capture only the practices that leave a detectable signal in the data, while excluding important management choices that cannot be observed from space.

Institutional priorities also shape causal models. Agricultural research programs and policy initiatives often focus on certain crops or regions that are politically or economically prioritized, leaving smallholder farms or minor crops underrepresented. This means that the causal interventions included in the model reflect institutional focus rather than the full range of agronomic or environmental processes that may be important.

These modelling choices are not mistakes; they reflect real constraints in data and governance. However, they influence how causality, responsibility and intervention are understood. I argue for causal modelling practices that make these translation choices explicit and that pay closer attention to context, plurality and responsibility so causal ML can better support environmental decision-making.

 

Reference

Sitokonstantinou, V. et al. (2025). Causal machine learning for sustainable agriculture. NeurIPS 2025 Workshop: Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning. https://openreview.net/forum?id=CE5T6BPFBk

How to cite: Sitokonstantinou, V.: Translating causal models into environmental practice, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10555, 2026.

EGU26-10832 | Posters on site | EOS4.1

Geoethics across the Geoscience Curriculum 

Carl-Georg Bank

Practicing geoscience professionals, geoscience researchers, and any informed citizen should be aware of the ethical implications of their actions and intentionally counteract possible negative consequences. This mindset should become more prevalant despite current events. I am convinced that we, the geoscience community, can attract more students into geoscience if they see the ethical dimension of our field. I therefore advocate that instructors of geoscience courses discuss ethics with their students and not leave the teaching of ethical thinking just to dedicated courses that are often taught by philosophers. I posit that students need both a theoretical foundation of ethics, as well as role models that show that we care about ethics and how we address ethical questions in our work, to be able to make informed decisions later. Instructors in any geoscience course can encourage students to think through scenarios, including case studies and wicked problems. Examples range from more general (eg, representation of data, lab group dynamics, credits and authorship, possible conflict of interest) over field-work related and Indigenous questions (eg, inclusiveness, property owners' right to know, land rights, Indigenous knowledge) to politial issues with a geoscience component (eg, ethical mining, including in the deep ocean and space, nuclear waste disposal, green energy, disaster mitigation, cross-border water and resource questions) that can be integrated in overview as well as specialised geoscience courses. By making our students aware of the intersection between geoscience and ethics they will be better prepared to launch a fulfilling career.

How to cite: Bank, C.-G.: Geoethics across the Geoscience Curriculum, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10832, 2026.

EGU26-10881 | Posters on site | EOS4.1

How can education address the planetary crisis and steer it in a positive direction?  

Sjoerd Kluiving, Anouk Beniest, Karen Verduijn, Mario Torralba, Katinka Quintelier, Jorim Tielbeek, Sarah Foster, Lisa Ausic, Anco Lankreijer, Jaro Pichel, Wouter Buursma, Serxia Lagearias, Anders Schinkel, Ivar Maas, Scott Dalby, and Martin Bohle

“Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world1”. But how can educational methods and contents motivate and steer society in a positive direction, and how do we accelerate the educational reform process?

Here we present tools, projects, and movements from academic curricula, ranging from storytelling and experiential coursework to grassroots initiatives in green education.

  • For the UN climate conference COP28 in Dubai in 2023, students, employees, scientists, climate activists, writers and Indigenous authors spurred climate action beyond its walls and national borders through creative means. The outcome was a fluid book2 calling on politicians, policymakers and organisations to action.
  • At the Amsterdam University College (Netherlands), teachers (re-)designed, taught and coordinated the second-year bachelor course ‘Big Questions in the Anthropocene’. 250 students critically evaluated their planetary relationships and explored new ways to transform and sustain them. An experiential format asked students to design and guide a city-based excursion while reflecting on and reviewing that of their peers’ and developing an independent research project.
  • At the grassroots level, EDI (Equality, Diversion and Inclusion) Committees within the program Earth and Environmental Sciences organised lectures, workshops and information sessions on geoethical topics3. These committees connect through networking like national events, conferences and social media (e.g. ‘Earth Science for All 2025’), informing and activating peers around inclusive, cross-broder scientific collaboration and the deconstruction of colonial practices.
  • Plato’s Garden is a VU’s grassroots cross-faculty educators’ movement with interdisciplinary expertise spanning six VU faculties and collaborating with the University of Twente. The platform promotes and incorporates nature- and art-based pedagogic methods such as forest bathing, ecopedagogy exercises and nature walks into higher education.
  • In line with this, the Sustainability Education Hub is active in integrating sustainability into all VU programs.

The tools mentioned here showcase inspiration and creativity, providing fertile ground for the germination of new identities, ultimately blossoming into hands- and heart-type of activities that embed curricula and (non-)academic communities in nature. The challenge is that all these programs operate more in isolation than in collaboration, lacking an ecosystem to scale these initiatives.

Educational specialists and students need an infrastructure that supports their endeavours. This includes 1) formal embedding within university structures, 2) financial support from host institutes, 3) teachers and students with time to spend on those initiatives, 4) facilitating networking and 5) promoting active implementation in educational curricula.  

To stimulate meaningful transformation, we build on a collectivist approach rooted in existing (non-)academic settings and communities. Its strength lies in the diversity of geoethical practices and themes – such as climate action, digital transformation, and social justice – and their expression through educational programs and grassroots initiatives. Here, the classroom becomes a space of critical engagement, enabling us to confront the climate crisis as an ethical, social, and political condition that demands a lived, justice-oriented responsibility. This, in turn, supports an adaptive transformation toward a resilient and synergistic ecojust education.

1 quote attributed to Nelson Mandela

2 VU 2023, Fluidbook for COP28, www.vu.nl/cop28

3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoethics

How to cite: Kluiving, S., Beniest, A., Verduijn, K., Torralba, M., Quintelier, K., Tielbeek, J., Foster, S., Ausic, L., Lankreijer, A., Pichel, J., Buursma, W., Lagearias, S., Schinkel, A., Maas, I., Dalby, S., and Bohle, M.: How can education address the planetary crisis and steer it in a positive direction? , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10881, 2026.

EGU26-11674 | Posters on site | EOS4.1

Spatial quantification of the impact of the Russo–Ukrainian War on landscape fires and greenhouse gas emissions (2022-2025) 

Sergiy Zibtsev, Roman Vasylyshyn, Rostyslav Bun, Lennard de Klerk, Oleksandr Soshenskyi, Svitlana Krakovska, Linda See, Mykola Shlapak, Volodymyr Blyshchyk, Lidiia Kryshtop, Zoriana Romanchuk, Orysia Yashchun, Eugene Kalchuk, Yuriy Rymarenko, and Iryna Zibtseva

Military conflicts and wars can trigger landscape fires that cover large territories, leading to significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere and reducing the carbon sequestration capacity of the burned forests. Assessing the scale of this negative impact using ground-based methods is impossible due to contamination by Unexploded Ordnance (UXO) and landmines, the constant shelling, damage to monitoring systems, power outages, and a shortage of personnel. To spatially quantify the impact of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War on landscape fires, GHG emissions, and reductions in the carbon sequestration capacity of forests, we utilized remotely sensed data from 2022 to 2025 in combination with geoscientific approaches.

First, we identified the fire perimeters using satellite monitoring data and expert estimation. We then classified the burned areas into different land cover types: coniferous forests (Scots pine and spruce) and deciduous forests (common oak, beech, hornbeam, other hardwoods, and softwoods), croplands (wheat, barley, sunflower, and corn), and other landscapes (pastures, shrub vegetation, wetlands, and water vegetation). Using Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) for each land cover type summarizing by calendar seasons, we estimated the attribution factor spatially, which identifies the share of landscape fires that were war-related and not caused by natural factors or human activities typical of peacetime. The assumption was that under the no-war scenario, the same weather conditions (FWI) on the same type of land cover and in the same season should cause commensurate areas of fire across Ukraine.

To calculate the biomass losses due to war-related fires, we considered the land cover type, the species and age structure of the forest stands, the distribution of fires according to their intensity based on the differenced normalized burn ratio, their landscape-damaging severity, and the biomass content. On this basis, we estimated the immediate GHG emissions from war-related landscape fires as well as the longer-term biomass losses due to current forest fires and their corresponding GHG emissions.

Finally, we estimated the loss of carbon sequestration capacity in the burned forests and the associated uncertainty in the results achieved. Our study has demonstrated that during the first 3 years (2022–2024) of the Russo–Ukrainian War, the GHG emissions from war-related landscape fires, including forest, cropland, grassland, and wetland fires, have been substantial, and their spatial pattern has been significantly impacted by the location and intensity of the hostilities. The corresponding GHG emissions in the immediate term were estimated to be 14.18 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), and in the future (long-term), the biomass losses due to current forest fires and their corresponding GHG emissions were calculated to be 32.37 Mt CO2e.  

How to cite: Zibtsev, S., Vasylyshyn, R., Bun, R., de Klerk, L., Soshenskyi, O., Krakovska, S., See, L., Shlapak, M., Blyshchyk, V., Kryshtop, L., Romanchuk, Z., Yashchun, O., Kalchuk, E., Rymarenko, Y., and Zibtseva, I.: Spatial quantification of the impact of the Russo–Ukrainian War on landscape fires and greenhouse gas emissions (2022-2025), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11674, 2026.

EGU26-11682 | ECS | Posters on site | EOS4.1

Bridging science and education: The Handbook for Climate Change Adaptation Strategies 

Ana Madiedo Camelo, Ana Matias, A. Rita Carrasco, and Óscar Ferreira

Climate change is increasingly affecting nature and people everywhere. Despite the growing scientific evidence on climate effects, a significant gap persists between the produced scientific knowledge and public understanding. High schools act as critical hubs for climate action by increasing environmental literacy and fostering green skills. In the educational frame, it has been perceived that many teachers lack the tools and resources to confidently address and teach about climate change, its impacts, and adaptation. This study introduces a novel guide designed specifically to train teachers of students aged 12 to 18 on the impacts of climate change and effective adaptation strategies. Structured in a progressive sequence, from basic concepts to adaptation actions, the ‘Handbook for Climate Change Adaptation Strategies’ was developed under the CLARKS, ERASMUS+ project, through a co-creation process. Teachers’ feedback was incorporated to identify specific knowledge gaps and align the content with teaching needs, ensuring that it is understandable for teachers with diverse disciplinary backgrounds. During discussions teachers emphasized the need for the identification of climate change effects in everyday life and the distinction between mitigation and adaptation actions. The handbook was created based on the latest IPCC findings, as well as the European Climate Risk Assessment and other international reports. It focuses on the definition of climate change and how climate-related risks arise from the interplay between climate hazards, vulnerability, exposure, and adaptive capacity.

A target area refers to a system that is affected by climate change and is interconnected with other systems. In this handbook five overarching target areas were considered: ecosystems, food and water, human health, infrastructure, and socio-economics. The handbook describes how each system has been affected by climate hazards and presents proposed lines of adaptation for each target area to address ongoing and expected climate change impacts. These lines of adaptation are based on the national adaptation plans from Finland, Spain and Portugal (ERASMUS+ project partners), as well as on the European Union’s international strategies for climate change adaptation. By integrating scientific knowledge with practical educational guidance, this work contributes to strengthening climate change adaptation literacy across generations and supports the implementation of informed adaptation measures.

 
 
 

How to cite: Madiedo Camelo, A., Matias, A., Carrasco, A. R., and Ferreira, Ó.: Bridging science and education: The Handbook for Climate Change Adaptation Strategies, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11682, 2026.

EGU26-12580 | ECS | Orals | EOS4.1

Worker Co-operative Research Laboratories; An Alternative Model for Ambitious Science 

Jacqueline Campbell, Barbara Bertozzi, Paul Borne--Pons, Alistair Francis, and Mikolaj Czerkawski

Cutting edge scientific research is typically confined to three primary areas: university research groups, institutional laboratories and for-profit industry, each of which have their pros and cons. We had personally experienced the trade-offs researchers must make between scientific interests, economic needs, and personal stability, and wanted to create a different environment in which to carry out our work. That’s why in 2024, we founded the UK’s first worker-owned co-operative research organisation, Asterisk Labs [1], where we apply the principles of democratic worker control to the best aspects of traditional research environments; the freedom and scientific rigour of a university group, the stability and societal impact of institutional laboratories, and the speed of innovation in industry.   

We have no investors or shareholders, and are not-for-profit; all the money we make is reinvested back into the scientists and the science itself. We decide which contracts, awards and grants we apply for and accept, ensuring we are true to our ethical and scientific principles. We have a completely flat structure, meaning there is no CEO or hierarchy; all members are offered directorship, everyone is paid equally, and we make decisions collectively. We share the responsibility of the administrative, legal and financial management of the lab, reducing the cost of overheads, increasing transparency and allowing all members to gain experience in running a laboratory. We have a 4 day work week, remote and flexible working, 38 days leave and a competitive salary and pension, ensuring excellent work/life balance and working conditions. 

We are not the only worker owned research organisation, there are others such as Datlas [2] in France and NWRA in the USA [3]  but we hope to play a small part in showing it is possible to create an alternative structure in which scientists can thrive.

In this presentation we will talk about why we set up Asterisk Labs as a co-operative, how we did it, what projects we are working on, and our commitment to open science. We believe our model inherently lends itself to ethical, equitable and impactful scientific research and better working conditions for scientists. 

 

1. www.asterisk.coop

2. www.datlas.fr

3. www.nwra.com

How to cite: Campbell, J., Bertozzi, B., Borne--Pons, P., Francis, A., and Czerkawski, M.: Worker Co-operative Research Laboratories; An Alternative Model for Ambitious Science, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12580, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12580, 2026.

EGU26-14156 | Posters on site | EOS4.1

Building an Ethical and Responsible Workforce: An AI/ML Training Strategy for Earth System Science 

Rebecca Haacker, Thomas Hauser, Monica Morrison, and Mariana Cains

As Earth system science (ESS) institutions navigate the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in research and teaching, preparing the current and future workforce for AI/ML adoption has largely focused on developing technical skills for scientific applications. Many students, postdocs, and scientific staff are learning to use AI tools faster than they are learning to reflect on their implications. The ethical, societal, and educational dimensions of AI use remain comparatively underdeveloped, with important consequences for scientific integrity, public trust, and the long-term sustainability of research practices. If AI is to strengthen ESS research, we need to support researchers at all career stages, not only in how to use these tools, but in how to use them responsibly. This includes ethical decision-making, responsible data practices, transparency in publishing, and awareness of the environmental and societal impacts of increasing computing needs. This presentation describes a structured workforce development approach at the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) that aims to embed responsible AI education across the ESS research lifecycle, with specific attention to the needs of students, postdoctoral researchers, and early-career staff. The framework is built around three interconnected priorities. The first emphasizes foundational skill-building in ethical literacy, critical evaluation of AI outputs, bias awareness, and responsible data and publication practices. The second focuses on strengthening scientific reliability through training in reproducibility, uncertainty awareness, interpretability, and sustainable computing practices. The third addresses governance and ethical dissemination, establishing institutional structures that support transparency, accountability, and responsible use. We will share examples from NSF NCAR of how ethics are addressed in our training programs. Together, these efforts show how responsible AI education can be integrated into everyday research practice and support an ESS workforce that applies AI with rigor, responsibility, and societal awareness.

How to cite: Haacker, R., Hauser, T., Morrison, M., and Cains, M.: Building an Ethical and Responsible Workforce: An AI/ML Training Strategy for Earth System Science, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14156, 2026.

EGU26-14505 | Posters on site | EOS4.1

Scale matters, but not always by scaling up 

Cornelia E. Nauen

Humans have spread out of Africa into all continents, except Antarctica. Food availability and adaptability to diverse food were drivers for this expansion impacted by geological and climate processes. Humans themselves also shaped landscapes and biodiversity by eradicating many bigger species (Frankopan 2023). The industrial revolution with massive deployment of fossil energy replacing muscle power of humans and domesticated animals increased CO2 and methane emissions. The ‘great acceleration’ after WWII led to the well-known ‘hockey stick’ effect (Steffen et al. 2015). The massive upscaling through industrialisation transformed food production, distribution and consumption. The trend towards standardisation and spatial expansion of industrial agriculture generated increasingly highly processed food. Energy demand per unit output increased on land with reliance on artificial fertilizers, factory farming and intensive pest and disease control. Its pollution of surface, ground and coastal waters, industrial agriculture has contributed to breaching planetary boundaries.

A similar pattern has arisen in marine food production. While the ocean is one huge interconnected ecosystem, local and regional temperature, salinity and habitats create distinct floral and faunal niches. The scaling up of industrial fishing has, similar to earlier trends on land, significantly changed the faunal size distribution. Top predators that maintain marine food webs have declined, e.g. in the North Atlantic to less than 10% of their biomass a century ago (Christensen et al. 2003). Excessive, unselective extractions create waste and shrink global landings serving as nutritious food. Conversely, improved utilisation and management can increase nutritional effects. Here it is argued that phasing out unselective and particularly destructive forms of fishing and replacing them with local, low impact fisheries would climate proof marine harvesting and enhance justice by benefit sharing (Nauen et al. 2025). The appropriate harvesting scale uses basic principles: let juvenile fish grow to maturity; avoid fishing large, old females with the highest reproductive capacity; fish prey less than predators; harvest only what can regrow, shored up by strongly enforced protected areas. Such technical measures should be underpinned by inclusive management practices that are gender aware and value ecological knowledge of small-scale fishers and science. In many coastal areas scaling down or sideways towards local, low-impact, small-scale fisheries offers more cost-effective and environmentally benign, high quality nutrition and other social benefits. Increased ocean literacy combined with attention to social justice are major enabling factors for steering transitions towards viable regenerative food production systems.

References

Christensen, V. et al. (2003). Hundred-year decline of North Atlantic predatory fishes. Fish Fisheries, 4(1), 1-24 https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1467-2979.2003.00103.x

Francopan, P. (2023). The Earth Transformed. An Untold History. London, Oxford, New York, New Delhi, Sydney, Bloomsbury Publishing, 696 p. ISBN 978-1-5266-2255-5

Nauen, C.E. et al. (2025). Voices from the shorelines to navigate the anthropocene. Ch. 9 in M. Bohle and C.E. Nauen (eds.). Cross-Disciplinary Dialogues with the Earth Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-97445-8_9

Steffen, W. et al. (2015). The trajectory of the Anthropocene. The great acceleration. The Anthropocene Review, 2, 81-98. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053019614564785

How to cite: Nauen, C. E.: Scale matters, but not always by scaling up, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14505, 2026.

EGU26-17509 | Posters on site | EOS4.1

Sedimentologika 3 years after the opening : reflecting on diamond open access and scholarly-led ventures in scientific publishing  

Camille Thomas, Romain Vaucher, Maria-Cristina Arrieta-Martinez, Domenico Chiarella, Rebecca Englert, Jarred Lloyd, Victor Hême de Lacotte, Marta Marchegiano, Aurelia Privat, and Faizan Sabir

Sedimentologika (e-ISSN 2813-415X) is the community-driven, Diamond Open Access scientific journal dedicated to advancing the field of sedimentology. As a Diamond Open Access journal, the content is freely available to read and share, and the journal is free to publish in.

Sedimentologika is an international, broad-scope journal that publishes high-quality scientific research on sedimentology, stratigraphy, and related fields. The journal accepts research with widely applicable advances in sedimentology, as well as regional case studies of interest to the sedimentology community, regardless of spatial and temporal scales, on Earth or any other planetary body. It also encourages interdisciplinary studies that link sedimentology to geochemistry, palaeontology, microbiology, archaeology, geomorphology, meteorology, hydrology, paleoclimate, tectonics (amongst others), and transdisciplinary studies that encompass sedimentology in society, education, and technology. Finally, Sedimentologika also aims to foster an inclusive and diverse environment within sedimentology, stratigraphy, and related fields (Thomas et al., 2023).

Since its opening in fall 2022, it has published 4 issues and is growing slowly in the sedimentary sciences field. Its growth compares with other newly created and scholarly-led Diamond open access journals, reflecting a community that relies on society journals operating under hybrid or gold open access managed by large for profit publishing companies. While the growth is satisfactory in such environments, it relies on the increasing contribution of researchers, in a system where not all country value the inputs of scholarly-led ventures without impact factor, and where scientific publishing is seen more and more as a service, and less as a joint effort to strenghten a scientific field. In this way, reconsidering editorial, reviewing and copyediting contributions as part of an added value for a scholar career is essential and necessary if fairer modes of publications are to be achieved in a near future.

 

Thomas, C., Privat, A., Vaucher, R., Spychala, Y., Zuchuat, V., Marchegiano, M., Poyatos-Moré, M., Kane, I., & Chiarella, D. 2023: Sedimentologika : A community-driven diamond open access journal in sedimentology. Sedimentologika, 1.

How to cite: Thomas, C., Vaucher, R., Arrieta-Martinez, M.-C., Chiarella, D., Englert, R., Lloyd, J., Hême de Lacotte, V., Marchegiano, M., Privat, A., and Sabir, F.: Sedimentologika 3 years after the opening : reflecting on diamond open access and scholarly-led ventures in scientific publishing , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17509, 2026.

EGU26-20027 | ECS | Orals | EOS4.1

Critical Sustainability in Geosciences — A praxis 

Janne J. Salovaara and Katja Anniina Lauri

Our justification to critical sustainability in geosciences comes from years of experience in engaging with various branches of geo- and sustainability sciences, predominantly revolving around issues of climate change and aiming to tackle its problematique at the human end—be it, for example, educational or societal. Based on a typology formed we recognise three main classes of critical to consider when conducting research; that the state of the earth and its system is in a critical condition and appears to continue the uncomfortable trend at an accelerating speed; that the contemporary practices of sustainability have plenty to be critical about as the track record of the endeavour of sustainable development and sustainability science can be viewed as substandard; and that the history of science, research and other utilisable forms of knowledge- and sense-making offer countless critical approaches that when considering the two previous points begin to seem like a necessity. 

Based on this justification we suggest a two-fold focus for the initiation of a more critical approach in geosciences as it aims to address issues of sustainability. Firstly, the epistemic foundation of geosciences, again and especially in the context of sustainability, could reflect the empiric-historic roots to consider the ongoing unprecedented phenomena and understanding of it: the duality of historical and predictive is severely contested and limits of our understanding—grasping the unknown-unknowns—are put to task. While the previous point mostly pertains to the world-views on which our research is unboundedly built upon, the critical turn has significant relevance to the practice and aims of sustainability-orientated research, from our position: the praxis—the problems of practice. It appears that, while practising research, we simultaneously exemplify the ideals of science (and sustainability) in a manner where we fail to live up to them—partly as ideals are easily understood as utopian, but more deviantly so if we fail to be critical towards our own practice-shortcomings.  

To operationalise the suggested topic: elaborating on the active praxis of critical sustainability in geosciences, we observe a case of citizen climate change and sustainability responses and perceptions in Finland. Based on a (representative) national survey,  while almost 90% agree to mostly understand what climate change is about, only approximately 35% agree that they themselves are contributing to the problems or see that the challenges they face in their everyday life are related to climate change and sustainability. Here we suggest, as a hopeful initiation of a conversation, that geosciences could ponder on its roles and vices, but moreover the groundbreaking possibilities, when contributing to a critical, palatable and impactful understanding of the Earth System crisis we face and the methodological choices we make while labouring towards this understanding.

How to cite: Salovaara, J. J. and Lauri, K. A.: Critical Sustainability in Geosciences — A praxis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20027, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20027, 2026.

At a time when climate complexities, exposure to concomitant natural hazards, accruing physical vulnerabilities across the natural and built environments, and a whirlwind evolution of energy sources all pierce through layered societal fragilities and fraught global equilibria, identifying shared interests can appear a Herculean exercise. This is underscored by unexpected geopolitical tensions and strategic conundrums, bridging human safety and security and raising major questions about the present and future of the Earth system. Social and political polarisations, wavering international policies, and ageing demographics are not helpful.

Also, not only can the circuitous evolutions across the availability and location of natural resources, for today and tomorrow, appear both too “fast” and too “slow” (to either global citizens and/or involved stakeholders), but they reveal the inherent fragility of equilibria once socially assumed to be long-standing or “reliable”. The reality of the 21st century brings an indisputably more kaleidoscopic palette, concealing rising economic and social costs. As always throughout human history, many of these involve fundamental social commons, including seemingly far away or very near ones, like freshwater or critical minerals, whose search for and exploitation evoke vital resources and hidden hazards, often resulting in socio-economic complexities or tensions.

While acknowledging that novel mindsets are needed – now – to advance societies and protect human life, knowledge and cross-disciplinary insight can and should be strategic means to help design peaceful, fruitful prospects that lead to concrete cooperation, locally and beyond. Helping to build a socially aware approach to address the contrasts that energy, climate, and boundaries strain can be challenging but enriching, puzzling but revealing, and disconcerting but illuminating. Above all, contemporary crises at the nexus between climate and resources are multiple, exposing systemic fragilities and delicate, shifting boundaries across risks and resources.

How to cite: Fracassi, U.: Buy Hard: Climate, Hazards, and Natural Resources across Geopolitical fault lines, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20237, 2026.

It is common that research projects related to geoscience require a contribution to social impact. This is often especially true in relation to climate change mitigation and adaptation. From large-scale science-policy projects to participatory citizen workshops, scholars do their best to understand and professionally execute collaboration and outreach strategies. I argue that despite of the benefits, the process of social impact is largely misunderstood, undervalued and poorly resourced in academia. This can lead to negative effects on desired social impacts, on reseachers’ well-being, on stakeholder experiences and on resources aimed at important basic research. To improve the situation, social impact of research should not be diminished but rather rethought in a way that properly meets the standards of professional ethics and ethics related to collaboration between different sectors of society. The term impact washing (c.f. greenwashing) is used here to refer to providing false, ineffective, irrelevant and vague promises, information and actions to promote social impact to improve your own status, get funding and to distract attention away from concrete and sustainable action.

The topic is approached by providing examples of practical work with transdisciplinary projects in the Finnish academia and beyond, especially in the realm of geosciences and climate change. This presentation aims to act as a conversation starter and to focus on practical steps that we could take to improve social impact and move away from tick-the-box impact strategies. Such steps might include shifting the focus of implementing social impact work from researchers to professional facilitators and societal experts, education, and rethinking funding models and career paths in the academia. Coming from an ex-ethics researcher point of view, the presentation also provides simple tools that can help researchers rethink their work in the context of larger societal discussion and ethical questions. We will look into to this via questions such as: What is the resposibility of institutions and researchers in choosing which type of social impact to focus (or not focus) on? What consequences can false promises of social impact or poorly executed social impact initiatives have on climate change, policies and academia? What ethical concerns are related to interactions between disciplinaries, sectors, communities and individuals?  

How to cite: Rantanen, R.: Social impact or impact washing? The case for a deeper ethical understanding and concrete action , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20469, 2026.

EGU26-21044 | Orals | EOS4.1

Beyond Scientific Neutrality: Ethical Responsibility and Geopolitical Accountability in Public Research Institutions 

Stefano Corradini, Daniele Andronico, Carlo Alberto Brunori, Gianfilippo De Astis, Raffaele Di Stefano, Claudia D'Oriano, Valentino Lauciani, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Chiara Montagna, Rosa Nappi, Rosella Nave, Paolo Perfetti, Monia Procesi, Dario Stelitano, and Manuela Volpe

In the contemporary geopolitical landscape, the view of science as a "neutral" space, detached from political and ethical implications, is increasingly being challenged by members of the scientific community. This contribution analyzes the mobilization within the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) and other Public Research Institutions (EPRs) following the escalation of violence in Southwest Asia amid rising tensions across Eurasia and beyond.

Starting from an open letter signed by over 400 researchers and staff members, the movement demands a paradigm shift: from a passive "scientific diplomacy" to an active "ethical accountability". The proponents argue that research institutions have a direct responsibility in the construction of a democratic society that respects human rights and international law. The mobilization specifically addresses the contradictions of maintaining cooperation agreements with institutions directly or indirectly involved in documented violations of international humanitarian law, particularly in the context of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

Key issues raised include the need for:

Ethical Procurement and Due Diligence: Implementing protocols to prevent complicity with entities involved in conflicts condemned by the UN.

Institutional Accountability: Challenging the disparity in institutional responses to different global conflicts (e.g., Ukraine vs. Palestine).

Individual Conscience: Proposing the inclusion of "conscientious objection" for researchers regarding dual-use projects or collaborations with ethically compromised entities.

Scientific monitoring and long-term analysis: Using scientific expertise to monitor the direct effects of war and analyze its long-term consequences. This includes assessing the environmental legacy of conflict, such as the massive production of debris (estimated at more than 61 million tons in Gaza) and the severe contamination of soil and water resources.

Support and academic cooperation: Actively promoting collaborations, mobility, and specialization programs with academic communities (students, research groups, and faculty) in regions affected by conflict, political instability, or documented severe human rights violations, in line with the principles of international academic solidarity.

Through the lens of this institutional struggle, the presentation explores the tension between the "mission" of research entities (promotion of knowledge) and their ethical obligations as public actors. It concludes by proposing the establishment of independent Ethics Committees that go beyond "research integrity" (avoiding fraud) to ensure "research morality" (avoiding complicity). Scientific practice is never politically neutral and silence in the face of atrocities is a form of institutional connivance.

How to cite: Corradini, S., Andronico, D., Brunori, C. A., De Astis, G., Di Stefano, R., D'Oriano, C., Lauciani, V., Esposti Ongaro, T., Montagna, C., Nappi, R., Nave, R., Perfetti, P., Procesi, M., Stelitano, D., and Volpe, M.: Beyond Scientific Neutrality: Ethical Responsibility and Geopolitical Accountability in Public Research Institutions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21044, 2026.

EGU26-21402 | Posters on site | EOS4.1

Practicing geoethics in Earth system modeling 

Iris Ehlert

Geoethics is commonly discussed as a field concerned with principles, responsibilities, and normative guidance for geoscientists in their engagement with society and the environment. In this contribution, I take a complementary perspective and explore geoethics as it is lived and negotiated in everyday scientific coordination. Drawing on ethnographic insights from my work as process coordinator within the German Earth System Modeling initiative natESM, I approach geoethics as a situated practice that unfolds in concrete decisions, relationships, and institutional processes rather than as a fixed moral framework.

I focus on moments where technical, organizational, political, and ethical considerations intersect in particularly tangible ways. These include decisions about which numerical models can be sustainably supported within a national infrastructure, the deliberate shift of technical responsibility toward Research Software Engineers to ensure long-term maintainability, and the continuous effort to keep scientific communities involved even when specific models cannot be fully integrated. In this context, the sprint process becomes a central ethnographic site. It brings together different professional cultures, expectations, and temporalities, especially those of scientists and RSEs, and turns collaboration itself into a space where responsibility, care, and authority are constantly renegotiated.

Particular attention is given to the emotional and political work involved in communicating limits, such as defined breakpoints in projects, uncertainty about future trajectories, and the need for redirection. These moments are rarely framed as ethical decisions, yet they profoundly affect professional identities and senses of belonging within the Earth system modeling community. They gain further complexity in an international context shaped by instability and asymmetry, where long-standing partners may face institutional uncertainty while their expertise remains crucial for transnational collaboration.

From this perspective, geoethics appears less as a matter of compliance or formal codes of conduct and more as a form of relational and infrastructural work. It involves balancing care for people, responsibility for public resources, and commitments to scientific quality and sustainability in situations where no solution is purely technical.

By foregrounding coordination and sprint-based collaboration as ethnographic sites of ethical practice, I argue for a broadened understanding of geoethics that includes the mundane and often invisible labor of aligning infrastructures, expertise, and expectations in contemporary geoscience. I propose political ethnography as a way to make visible how ethical responsibility in large-scale scientific initiatives is not only articulated in principles, but enacted in processes.

How to cite: Ehlert, I.: Practicing geoethics in Earth system modeling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21402, 2026.

EGU26-21666 | Orals | EOS4.1

From Polar Science to Public Action: 30 Years of the Ukrainian Antarctic Station Akademik Vernadsky in Times of Polycrisis 

Svitlana Krakovska, Anastasiia Chyhareva, Olena Marushevska, Anna Torgonenko, and Evgen Dykyi

This year the Ukrainian Antarctic Station “Akademik Vernadsky” (UASAV) celebrates its 30-year anniversary as a Ukrainian research facility. Formerly the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) station Faraday, it hosts the longest uninterrupted meteorological observations in Antarctica, with records beginning in 1947. Ukraine assumed responsibility for the station in 1996 after signing a Memorandum with BAS committing to the continuation of core observations at least 10 years. Thereby preserving and enhancing one of the most valuable long-term climate datasets in the Southern Hemisphere.

Over three decades, UASAV has developed into a multidisciplinary research platform contributing to global understanding of interactions within climate system components: atmosphere–ocean–cryosphere-biosphere-lithosphere interactions. Particularly, Antarctic ecosystems are in focus of UASAV research.

Ukrainian scientists actively participate in major international initiatives. Engagement in YOPP-SH (Year of Polar Prediction – Southern Hemisphere) contributes to international efforts to improve weather and climate forecasting through coordinated polar observations particularly in winter with radio sounding of atmosphere which UASAV contributed over 10% of all additional launches among all Antarctic stations. Within HORIZON 2020 PolarRES, research focused on improving polar climate predictability and understanding polar feedbacks in the Earth system. The ongoing OCEAN ICE project addresses coupled ocean–sea ice processes and their role in climate regulation; as a Horizon 2020 project, it places strong emphasis on communication to demonstrate to European society the value of polar research for climate knowledge, environmental policy, and sustainability. Participation in ERASMUS+ project OPTIMA supported integrated Antarctic observations and modeling into Open Science standards particularly in displaced Ukrainian universities.

Despite the ongoing russian aggression against Ukraine and the broader context of global polycrisis, the National Antarctic Scientific Center (NASC) of Ukraine continues to ensure uninterrupted station operations, long-term observations, and international scientific cooperation, particularly within the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). The high level of Ukrainian Antarctic research is further supported by the research vessel Noosfera (formerly the British James Clark Ross), enabling marine expeditions, oceanographic measurements, and logistical independence.

Beyond research, NASC actively develops climate and polar science communication through traditional media and social platforms, organizes educational outreach with schools, and conducts national photo and video competitions. These activities engage younger generations, foster environmental awareness, and promote values of nature conservation and geoethical responsibility. The 30-year history of UASAV illustrates how sustained science, education, and communication can transform crisis into action and reinforce the societal relevance of polar research.

How to cite: Krakovska, S., Chyhareva, A., Marushevska, O., Torgonenko, A., and Dykyi, E.: From Polar Science to Public Action: 30 Years of the Ukrainian Antarctic Station Akademik Vernadsky in Times of Polycrisis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21666, 2026.

EGU26-21981 | ECS | Orals | EOS4.1

Political Education in Science: Two Years of Palestine Space Institute 

Divya M Persaud, Sahba El-Shawa, Aj Link, and Giuliana Rotola

The Palestine Space Institute (PSI) is a pioneering think tank established to challenge and disrupt the prevailing colonial and militaristic narrative in the space industry. An important aspect of this vision is to equip community members with cross-disciplinary tools to understand science in society and disentangle power, hierarchy, and the interplay between geopolitics and science. We propose an urgent reframing of science communication as political education, and offer reflections from PSI’s implementation of this approach since 2023 and the increasing need for such interventions due to current and emerging geopolitical conditions. These activities include seminars and discussion spaces with researchers, community partners, and global stakeholders; the launch of the Space and Military-Industrial Complex Database, a social-scientific resource built for scientists; an in-person community-building event; and research activities centered on material, ethical, and political examination of the dual-use paradigm in the space industry, including in the use of EO satellites and data. We also present how conceptual interventions, such as understanding, documenting, and obstructing “spacewashing,” can disrupt how science is used to manufacture consent for colonial violence.

PSI’s framework equips STEM practitioners, educators, students, and broader audiences with a holistic understanding of the geopolitical role of science, with participatory, action-centered, and community-building outcomes. This approach also applies characteristics of traditional science communication to improve political literacy for the public. We argue that intellectual resistance is a crucial component of resisting colonialism and neocolonialism, both of which are upheld by science and the false narrative of apolitical science and technology.

How to cite: Persaud, D. M., El-Shawa, S., Link, A., and Rotola, G.: Political Education in Science: Two Years of Palestine Space Institute, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21981, 2026.

EGU26-22232 | Posters on site | EOS4.1

Community-based propagation: Systems science insights for rapid scaling of climate action and cooperation 

Juliette Rooney-Varga, Lucia Cheney, Thysan Sam, and Sothea Chiemruom

Research shows that community-based propagation is the most effective strategy for scaling innovations in sustainability education in formal settings like universities. It builds a community of “ambassadors” who share the innovation with their social networks, for whom they serve as trusted messengers. A backbone organization facilitates and elevates ambassadors’ work, spurring interest in joining the community and thereby creating a reinforcing feedback loop that spreads the innovation.

Systems analysis shows that community-based propagation can generate exponential scaling of adoption when word-of-mouth diffusion and direct outreach have little impact. Like educational innovations, efforts to scale climate action via word-of-mouth and direct outreach often fail, even if those actions carry economic and health benefits.

Here, we share initial findings from an ongoing community-based propagation effort to accelerate participation in residential decarbonization among an immigrant community in the US. Working in partnership with a local civil society organization (CSO), we built a program that supports community members who learn about energy efficiency and decarbonization incentives, participate in them, and share their experiences with their own social networks in culturally and in the community’s primary language (here, Khmer). Ambassadors’ work is celebrated by their peers and the CSO, creating a reinforcing feedback loop that amplifies their efforts as more community members become interested in the ambassador program and its work.

We are currently assessing how this approach can be replicated and scaled to other communities and contexts. This largely bottom-up strategy builds trust and participation in climate solutions, which is critically important in a democracy. Perhaps equally importantly, it also strengthens social fabric and civic engagement, which, in turn, strengthen democracy.

How to cite: Rooney-Varga, J., Cheney, L., Sam, T., and Chiemruom, S.: Community-based propagation: Systems science insights for rapid scaling of climate action and cooperation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22232, 2026.

EGU26-22677 | Posters on site | EOS4.1

Designing for impact: How interactive climate simulations foster learning, engagement and action 

Florian Kapmeier, Andrew Jones, and John Sterman

Policy design in climate and sustainability is hindered by nonlinear feedbacks, long delays, and uncertainty that limit the effectiveness of traditional information‑centric communication. The manuscript examines how simulation models can be designed and deployed to support learning and decision‑making by integrating analytical rigor, model transparency, and structured stakeholder engagement. Using the C‑ROADS and En‑ROADS climate policy simulators and insights from the MIT Climate Pathways Project (CPP), the paper distills three design principles for impactful simulation‑based learning environments:

  • (1) rigorous, empirically grounded modeling with comprehensive simulator transparency;
  • (2) user‑centered interface design that scaffolds discovery while preserving access to underlying structure and assumptions; and
  • (3) facilitated, interactive engagements that enable participants to test mental models through experimentation and social learning.

First, rigorous modeling emphasizes the necessity of formal testing and documentation to build confidence in policy insights. En‑ROADS and C‑ROADS are developed iteratively, grounded in the scientific literature, are calibrated to historic data, and their future behavior is tested against the climate scenarios in the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) and other widely-used Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), GCAM, MESSAGE-GLOBIUM, and REMIND-MAgPIE. Multi‑layered documentation—including an online technical reference guide, simulator behavior comparisons, and easily accessible explanations—enables scrutiny of model mechanisms, parameters, and simulator behavior. Users can interrogate and vary assumptions to explore robustness and uncertainty.

Second, user-centered interface design concerns design for “guided discovery.” The simulator’s layered interface presents key outcomes and policy levers in an intuitive top layer while offering advanced controls (≈250 parameters) and extensive visualization (≈180 graphs). Real‑time, browser‑based computation supports rapid scenario exploration across devices and languages, enabling both individual and group use cases. Iterative usability testing ensures that the interface reduces cognitive load while preserving analytical depth.

Third, facilitated, interactive engagements include the design of engagement protocols that combine analytic reasoning with experiential, collaborative learning. We highlight three formats:

  • the World Climate Simulation with C‑ROADS;
  • the Climate Action Simulation with En‑ROADS; and
  • the En‑ROADS Climate Workshop for policy briefings.

These interactive engagements prompt participants to articulate expectations before running scenarios, confront divergences between expectations and simulated outcomes, and engage in structured discussion and reflection. Such practices surface misconceptions about leverage points (e.g., relative effects of pricing emissions, efficiency improvements, carbon dioxide removal, afforestation, or bioenergy), foster systems thinking, and support informed action.

The CPP and the broader community infrastructure amplify reach and consistency. As of December 2025, more than 472,000 participants in 183 countries—including over 23,000 leaders in government, business, and civil society—have engaged with the simulators. A global network of En‑ROADS Climate Ambassadors (over 940 in 90+ countries) has collectively engaged upwards of 354,000 people through a structured training and certification program, extending the implementation of the design principles in diverse contexts.

The paper concludes with a conceptual model for future empirical research that hypothesizes how model rigor and transparency and interface usability affect learning and action via the mediating mechanism of facilitated, interactive simulation‑based experience. This framework supports systematic evaluation of simulator design and engagement quality, informing the development of SD‑based tools and protocols that can strengthen climate literacy, improve policy reasoning, and support evidence‑based action.

How to cite: Kapmeier, F., Jones, A., and Sterman, J.: Designing for impact: How interactive climate simulations foster learning, engagement and action, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22677, 2026.

EGU26-22759 | Orals | EOS4.1

Interactive simulation with En-ROADS spurs climate action among decision-makers 

Juliette Rooney-Varga, Lucia Cheney, Rachel Coleman, Andrew Jones, Florian Kapmeier, Peyton Newsome, Krystal Noiseux, Bethany Patten, Kenneth Rath, and John Sterman

Effective climate mitigation requires rapid, evidence‑based decisions across government, business, and civil society. Yet widespread misconceptions, disinformation, and insufficient understanding of high‑impact climate solutions continue to impede meaningful action among leaders. Traditional risk communication approaches often fail to overcome these barriers, particularly where climate change is politically polarized or socially contested. Here, we investigate whether interactive climate policy simulations with the En‑ROADS model can strengthen leaders’ knowledge, affective engagement, and motivation to take climate action.

Using a mixed‑methods design, we engaged 949 participants in 37 En‑ROADS workshops and Climate Action Simulations, an interactive role-play designed around the En-ROADS simulator. Participants in the role-play are assigned to different delegations at a mock UN climate conference, including governments, representatives from conventional energy, clean tech, industry and finance, and forest and agriculture. Pre‑/post‑survey responses (N≈290 matched) and semi‑structured interviews (N=42) were used to evaluate changes in knowledge, affect, and intended actions.

Survey‑based results show that interactive engagements significantly improved participants’ understanding of which climate policies have high versus low mitigation impact. Participants made substantial gains in identifying high‑impact solutions such as carbon pricing, cutting methane and non‑CO₂ greenhouse gases, and improving building energy efficiency. Participants also improved their ability to identify which solutions have little impact, even when those solutions are commonly favored. Such low-impact solutions do little to reduce near-term emissions and include afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, and technological carbon removal.

Engagement with En‑ROADS also increased participants’ affective engagement with climate change. Participants reported statistically significant increases in both the personal importance they attach to the issue and their sense of empowerment to contribute to climate solutions. These effects were similar across virtual and in‑person workshops, indicating a potential to scale across formats.

Interview‑based analyses confirm the survey results. Interviewees described the simulation experience as improving their understanding of the urgency, scale, and systemic nature of the climate challenge. Many emphasized that En‑ROADS’s interactive features made complex dynamics of the climate and energy systems easier to grasp than other modes of learning. The workshops generated strong emotional responses, including a sense of urgency and hope, which, in turn, motivated participants to act. Social interactions during the sessions played a critical role: collaborative scenario development fostered a sense of collective efficacy, reinforcing participants’ willingness to advocate for organizational or policy change.

Most interviewees reported taking or planning climate‑related actions after to the workshop. These actions include reducing their personal emissions, strategic organizational changes (e.g., establishing an internal carbon price or shifting investment strategies), and advocating for governmental or corporate policy change. Participants who were focused on sustainability prior to En-ROADS simulations also made gains, reporting improved clarity on high‑impact solutions and a strengthened sense of collective efficacy for climate action.

Overall, the results demonstrate that interactive En‑ROADS workshops can improve leaders’ understanding of effective climate mitigation strategies, activate emotional engagement, and motivate both individual and institutional climate action. This suggests that simulation‑based approaches can help bridge the persistent gap between climate knowledge and climate action among key societal actors.

How to cite: Rooney-Varga, J., Cheney, L., Coleman, R., Jones, A., Kapmeier, F., Newsome, P., Noiseux, K., Patten, B., Rath, K., and Sterman, J.: Interactive simulation with En-ROADS spurs climate action among decision-makers, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22759, 2026.

EGU26-1317 | ECS | Posters on site | ERE5.1

Cumulative Controls on Intermediate-Field Seismic Migration: Comparative Evidence from Three Geothermal Stimulation Campaigns 

Zhiwei Wang, Kristine Pankow, Antonio Rinaldi, James Verdon, and Ian Main

Injection-induced seismicity in Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) can migrate hundreds of meters from the well and often persists after shut-in, raising operational and hazard concerns. Here we present a cross-site comparative analysis of three stimulation campaigns—Soultz-sous-Forêts (France, 1993), Basel (Switzerland, 2006), and Utah FORGE Stage 3 (USA, 2022)—to identify the dominant controls on intermediate-field seismic migration.

Using a unified dynamic time-windowing framework, we track seismic front evolution via three complementary distance metrics and evaluate their relationships with injection rate, wellhead pressure, cumulative injected volume, hydraulic energy, seismicity rate, and modeled pore pressure at the migration front. Across all sites, cumulative variables—particularly injected volume, hydraulic energy, and injection duration—show the strongest and most consistent correlations with seismic front expansion, whereas instantaneous parameters exhibit weaker or site-specific influence.

Post-injection behaviors distinguish three migration regimes: (i) a pressure-limited regime at Soultz, where the front halts immediately after shut-in; (ii) a diffusion-dominated regime at Basel, with continued post-shut-in propagation; and (iii) a stress-sensitive, limited-diffusion regime at Utah FORGE, characterized by rapid early migration followed by stagnation. Building on these contrasts, we introduce a six-indicator radar classification that quantitatively distinguishes the three regimes.

Our results show that cumulative hydraulic forcing provides transferable, physically interpretable predictors of intermediate-field migration and that distinct post-shut-in signatures reflect underlying connectivity and stress conditions. This comparative framework supports improved seismic hazard assessment and operational planning for geothermal reservoir stimulation.

How to cite: Wang, Z., Pankow, K., Rinaldi, A., Verdon, J., and Main, I.: Cumulative Controls on Intermediate-Field Seismic Migration: Comparative Evidence from Three Geothermal Stimulation Campaigns, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1317, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1317, 2026.

EGU26-1912 | ECS | Orals | ERE5.1

Assessing induced seismicity risk for the Lower Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower complex 

Haonan Wang, Shemin Ge, and Xiaodong Ma

A large hydropower complex is planned on the Lower Yarlung Tsangpo (YT) with an expected output roughly three times that of the Three Gorges Project. The planned hydropower complex lies in the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, which is characteristic of intricate fault systems, high tectonic strain rates, and strong topographic variations. Reservoir impoundment in such a geologic setting may lead to unintended consequences such as induced seismicity and landslides. A pre-impoundment risk assessment is imperative for the region and the project. With regional faults and stress information, we perform an analysis to identify the fault segments that may be affected by reservoir impoundment and lead to seismicity.
The existing observations from hydraulic fracturing tests indicate that the rotation of SHmax orientation shows similarities with the changes in the YT course. To obtain abundant and diverse stress information, we compiled 145 focal mechanisms for the study area covering the period of 2000 - 2023. Moment magnitudes concentrate around 1.5 - 4, and hypocenter depths are in the upper crust (≤ 15 km). Given the complexity of the fault system and the pronounced heterogeneity in the number and distribution of focal mechanisms, we partitioned the study area into four subregions and performed focal mechanism stress inversions separately for each subregion. The inversion results reveal a strike-slip regime in three subregions and a thrust faulting regime in one subregion. The stress ratios for all subregions lie in the range 0.6 - 0.8. The inverted SHmax orientations differ markedly between subregions, with a maximum discrepancy of ~58.5°.
To quantify fault destabilization risk, we employ a parameter termed ‘fault instability’ (FI). The FI range is from 0 to 1, ‘0’ for the most stable fault, while ‘1’ for the most unstable fault. It is quantified by fault frictional coefficient μf, fault strike and dip, stress field, and pore pressure. To consider the uncertainty in these input parameters, the Monte Carlo sampling is used to constrain the FI. Different fault segments exhibit markedly different FI values. Seismicity over the 23-year period predominantly occur on faults with high FI values, corroborating the qualification of the FI. FI distribution can inform dam siting and tunnel routing. We plan to build a 3D hydro-mechanical model that couples observed and inverted geological data, simulate pore pressure diffusion and water loading effects on Coulomb stress, and assess the resulting changes in FI and induced seismicity risk.

How to cite: Wang, H., Ge, S., and Ma, X.: Assessing induced seismicity risk for the Lower Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower complex, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1912, 2026.

EGU26-2227 | ECS | Posters on site | ERE5.1

 The Dual Role of Ductile Barriers: From Stress-Concentrating Seals to Coseismic Valves in Induced Seismicity 

Junhao Tao, Xinxing Chen, Diai Liu, Haichao Chen, Yang Zhao, Fenglin Niu, and Laibin Zhang

Hydraulic fracturing often induces complex seismic sequences that migrate across stratigraphically distinct formations. However, the mechanisms governing delayed triggering and vertical interaction through lithological boundaries remain poorly understood. In this study, we report a novel "coseismic valve" mechanism observed in the Weiyuan shale gas field, southern Sichuan Basin, where the multi-stage evolution of seismicity was strictly governed by pre-existing 3D mechanical stratigraphy.

Using a dense local monitoring array, we constructed a high-resolution catalog by the deep-learning-based LOC-FLOW workflow. This catalog revealed a vertically partitioned fault system, where the deep and shallow seismicity clusters are distinctly separated by a ~400 m thick low-velocity ductile barrier.This barrier mechanically isolated a deep, critically stressed segment (characterized by a low b-value) from a shallower, compliant damage zone. Our analysis reveals a paradox in the role of ductile layers: initially, the barrier acted as a "pressure seal," preventing fluid leak-off and facilitating high differential stress accumulation in the underlying reservoir. This confinement culminated in the nucleation of an Mw 3.6 mainshock with an anomalously high stress drop.

Crucially, finite fault inversion and isochrone back-projection demonstrate that the mainshock rupture propagated upward, dynamically breaching the ductile barrier. This mechanical breach effectively functioned as a valve, establishing a vertical conduit for hydraulic connectivity. Following a distinct 6-day delay, a diffusive seismic swarm erupted in the previously quiescent shallow segment, driven by the upward surge of overpressured fluids through the newly created fracture network.

Our findings challenge the conventional view of ductile layers merely as passive aseismic buffers. We demonstrate that they can play a dual role: serving as stress-concentrating seals that prime the system for nucleation, and as structural valves that, once ruptured, enable cascading seismic hazards. This dynamic interaction highlights the necessity of integrating 3D structural frameworks into seismic risk assessment for geo-energy projects.

How to cite: Tao, J., Chen, X., Liu, D., Chen, H., Zhao, Y., Niu, F., and Zhang, L.:  The Dual Role of Ductile Barriers: From Stress-Concentrating Seals to Coseismic Valves in Induced Seismicity, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2227, 2026.

Hydraulic fracturing operations in the Southern Sichuan Basin have generated significant induced seismicity, raising important questions about the underlying rupture processes. We analyze stress drops of 3,369 induced earthquakes (ML > 0.5) using a non-parametric generalized inversion technique with rigorous reference-station corrections. Our analysis reveals two key characteristics of these induced events: first, they exhibit systematically low stress drops (median 0.07 MPa) that show positive scaling with seismic moment, challenging classical self-similarity assumptions; second, we observe pronounced spatial variations in stress release that correlate with depth and fault structure. Notably, fluid diffusion drives rapid activation of fault asperities, resulting in repeated high-stress-drop ruptures (0.3-6.0 MPa) within short timescales of days. This accelerated rupture cycle differs fundamentally from tectonic earthquake recurrence patterns. Our findings demonstrate that induced earthquake rupture dynamics are controlled by the interplay of heterogeneous fault strength and rapid fluid pressurization, providing critical insights for developing targeted hazard assessment strategies in energy-producing regions.

How to cite: Chen, X., Tao, J., Liu, D., and Chen, H.: Stress Drop Variability and Rapid Fault Activation in Hydraulic-Fracturing-Induced Earthquakes: Insights from the Southern Sichuan Basin, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2228, 2026.

During the siting of hydraulic-fracturing (HF) wells within industrial activity areas, identifying potential seismogenic faults and effectively avoiding them is critical for mitigating induced seismicity risk. Meanwhile, characterizing the fine-scale structures of seismogenic faults provides the essential foundation for analyses of the mechanisms and rupture processes of induced earthquakes. However, multiple case studies have demonstrated that, even where seismic reflection data are available, it remains difficult to identify small-displacement seismogenic faults, particularly those dominated by strike-slip faults. Consistently, the four representative M5+ induced earthquakes in the Changning and Weiyuan shale gas blocks of the Sichuan Basin also exhibit difficulties in identifying the seismogenic faults from seismic reflection data. Moreover, the scales of faults that can be identified through seismic reflection data and related interpretation methods, and their corresponding seismogenic potential, remain to be systematically defined and quantitatively constrained. This study integrates spatiotemporal data from HF operations, seismicity data, and high-resolution 3D seismic reflection data, together with surface deformation measurements, to address the above questions.

The results show that potential seismogenic faults with moment magnitude (Mw) greater than approximately 3.3 that displace strong reflection horizons can be effectively identified using high-resolution 3D seismic reflection data. In addition, the associated structures of small-displacement strike-slip faults facilitate their recognition in seismic reflection profiles. A common feature of the seismogenic fault systems of the four representative earthquakes is that small-displacement subsidiary faults (including strike-slip faults) intersect the fracturing wells within the reservoir interval, forming downward migration pathways for fracturing fluids and thereby activating the underlying thrust or strike-slip seismogenic faults. More importantly, such small-displacement faults are widely developed within the fractured intervals of the Sichuan Basin shale gas fields, yet their identification remains challenging. As a result, numerous horizontal wells intersect these faults, constituting a key reason for the frequent occurrence of induced seismicity in these areas. The most effective approach to recognizing these faults is to trace multiple strong reflection horizons to construct structural maps. By applying multi-azimuth illumination and vertical stretching, fault traces can be visualized more clearly, in combination with various types of seismic reflection attribute volumes.

Beyond the Sichuan Basin, injection-induced earthquakes in most shale gas fields worldwide are also closely associated with small-displacement faults, particularly strike-slip faults. The failure to avoid such faults during the siting of HF wells is also likely a major reason for the frequent occurrence of induced seismicity in these areas. The small-displacement fault identification techniques presented in this study facilitate a more precise delineation of seismogenic fault system structure. More importantly, during well site selection, from the perspective of fault identification and avoidance based on 3D seismic reflection data, this study provides theoretical support and practical strategies for preventing induced earthquakes with a magnitude (Mw) greater than approximately 3.3. These findings also offer significant implications for the prevention of induced seismicity caused by fluid/gas injection in a broader range of applications.

How to cite: Ye, Y. and Lu, R.: Identification and Impacts of Small-Displacement Faults in Industry-induced earthquake: Insights from the Southern Sichuan Shale Gas Field, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2497, 2026.

Identifying and distinguishing induced seismicity from background regional tectonic activity remains a major challenge within tectonically active settings, due to the overlap between natural seismicity and seismicity potentially triggered by human activities. Induced seismicity refers to earthquakes generated or modulated by anthropogenic processes such as reservoir impoundment, fluid injection or extraction, and mining. While mining-induced seismicity has been shown to increase seismicity rates and magnitudes in tectonically stable regions, fundamental uncertainties remain regarding the spatial extent of mining influence and its detectability in areas with high background tectonic activity. The case of study is in the Central Andes (18-36°S), in the Chilean Andean Margin. Here, long-lived subduction has shaped well-defined metallogenic belts hosting major metallic ore deposits, within which Chile has developed a long history of open-pit and underground mining across diverse geological and operational settings. We use regional crustal seismicity from a recently published regional seismic catalog, together with a database of large-scale open-pit and underground mining operations in Chile, to systematically evaluate spatial and statistical relationships between seismicity patterns and mining activity. Specifically, we apply a three-phase framework to identify seismic events with a higher likelihood of mining-induced origin. We first define a 15 km depth threshold to separate shallow seismicity potentially influenced by mining from deeper regional tectonic events, and distinguish near-field from far-field seismicity based on proximity to mining operations. We then apply a nearest-neighbor clustering method to identify stochastically independent events, which are more likely to be induced. Finally, distance to mines and clustering information are combined into a linear weighted metric that quantifies the likelihood of induced seismicity. The results reveal a marked daily temporal anomaly in shallow seismic behavior (depth < 15 km), where an increase in activity is observed in the near field of mines between 16:00 and 22:00, aligning with the mines’ primary operational windows and blasting schedules. Within this time window, the probability of events belonging to a tectonic cluster decreases, thereby increasing the likelihood that they are induced seismicity rather than aftershock sequences. The primary finding highlights a daily six-hour window that concentrates 70% of the total seismic activity in the near field of mines. This represents a concentration 2.8 times higher than normal compared to regional seismicity, which lacks a preferred time frame. These observations indicate that mining activities can impose a measurable temporal signature on seismicity, even within a tectonically active subduction margin, contributing to the broader understanding of how anthropogenic processes interact with natural seismic systems.

How to cite: Ravest, B. and Roquer, T.: Spatial and Temporal Metrics for the Identification of Mining-Induced Seismicity: The Case of the Chilean Andean Margin, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4084, 2026.

EGU26-6012 | Orals | ERE5.1

Shear slip and opening of existing faults during fluid injection: insights from tilt measurements 

Saeed Salimzadeh, Aurora Lambiase, Valentin Gischig, Dane Kasperczyk, Men-Andrin Meier, Marian Hertrich, and Antonio Rinaldi

Fluid injection in the subsurface for the purpose of CO2 sequestration, geothermal heat extraction or energy storage has frequently caused faults activation and seismicity, raised the communities’ concerns and ultimately resulted in project shutdown. In order to understand earthquakes, a set of unique experiments are being conducted in Bedretto Underground Laboratory for Geosciences and Geoenergy located at 1,000 m depth under the Swiss Alps. In these suites of experiments, small-scale non-damaging earthquakes are induced via water injection into a well-known and well-characterised fault.

A set of three borehole tiltmeters were deployed in the vicinity of the injection borehole and its data were used for analysing the fault’s behaviour during and after injection. A 3D finite element model (CSMP-HF) was utilised to predict the tilt vectors at specified stations from a set of prescribed input data (geometry, loading, stiffness, etc.), and a residual (cost) function was defined based on Bayesian framework to evaluate the closeness of the model predictions to the field measurements. Finally, a Differential Evolution optimisation technique was used to locate the global minima of the residual (cost) function, corresponding to the best set of input data. The inversion model results confirmed that both shear slip and opening (dilation) deformations occurred not only on the target fault, but also on another transverse fault. The inversion model was capable of accurately finding the location of “unknown” secondary fault which was consistent with log data gathered from another observation wellbore. The shear slippage consisted of both dip-slip (vertical) and strike-slip (horizontal) deformation, consistent with measured in-situ stresses.

How to cite: Salimzadeh, S., Lambiase, A., Gischig, V., Kasperczyk, D., Meier, M.-A., Hertrich, M., and Rinaldi, A.: Shear slip and opening of existing faults during fluid injection: insights from tilt measurements, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6012, 2026.

EGU26-7196 | ECS | Orals | ERE5.1

Multi-scale Characterization of Seismic Noise and Signals in an Underground Coal Mine 

Patchamatla V M V Prasada Raju and Paresh Nath Singha Roy

Seismic monitoring in underground coal mining environments is influenced by various anthropogenic and natural noise sources. The background noise, predominantly of mechanical origin, shows strong spatial and temporal variability. Some highly impulsive sources share common characteristics with genuine seismic events. Routine blasting activities within the mine and from surrounding regions also contribute significantly to the recorded data. Mining-triggered sources such as microseismicity, subsidence, roof falls, and occasional sensing of tectonic earthquakes originating from distant locations further contribute to the recorded data. The combined influence of these sources strongly affects the performance of conventional processing workflows, frequently resulting in false detections and event misclassifications.

In this study, continuous seismic data recorded in an underground coal mine using eight short-period seismometers over a six-month duration are analysed to characterise signal and noise properties across temporal, spectral, and spatial domains. Spectral persistence, correlation metrics, and multichannel signal-processing techniques are used to identify dominant noise sources and assess their influence on the recorded waveforms. Persistent mechanical activity is shown to dominate the spectrum, with numerous harmonics and broadband noise, motivating the use of multiscale decomposition methods.

We evaluate the performance of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) for multiscale analysis. Our results show that EMD can introduce spurious low-frequency modes that are absent from the original signals and can therefore be misinterpreted. In contrast, VMD’s constrained-bandwidth formulation yields more physically meaningful scale separation. The multivariate extension of VMD (MVMD) has been used for better mode alignment and correlation across channels.

Overall, these results demonstrate the advantages of constrained, multivariate multiscale methods for the characterization of signal and noise with implications for improving seismic monitoring and event classification in complex environments.

 

How to cite: Prasada Raju, P. V. M. V. and Roy, P. N. S.: Multi-scale Characterization of Seismic Noise and Signals in an Underground Coal Mine, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7196, 2026.

EGU26-8098 | ECS | Posters on site | ERE5.1

Characterization of microseismicity at the Húsmúli reinjection area, Hengill Geothermal Field, Southwest Iceland​ 

Sargun Kaur, Tania Toledo, Toni Kraft, and Verena Simon

Induced seismicity remains a major challenge for geothermal projects, with implications for public acceptance and operational risk management. Understanding how fluid injection interacts with fault structures to generate seismicity is therefore essential. The Húsmúli reinjection area in the Hengill geothermal field (SW Iceland) provides an ideal setting to investigate these processes due to its sustained induced seismicity and long operational history. Here, we present an improved seismicity catalog (2018–2021; COSEISMIQ project) and a waveform-based detection workflow that substantially increases catalog completeness and enhances spatiotemporal resolution.

We first improve the initial automatic catalog by re-picking events with unrealistic Vp/Vs ratios (Wadati analysis), high RMS location misfits, or unrealistic depths (e.g., airquakes). Phase picks are then refined using a cross-correlation (CC)-based repicking approach: events are clustered into waveform-similar families, traces are aligned and stacked to increase signal-to-noise, and consistent arrival times are obtained from a single-family reference pick. Missing picks are recovered by inspecting waveforms around the expected arrival time window and estimating phase onsets, accepting only traces with  CC ≥ 0.65 with respect to other family members.

3D spatial clustering of the refined catalog reveals NE–SW oriented seismic lineaments consistent with mapped faults and inferred fluid migration pathways. In contrast, nearby E-W structures show little to no seismicity, suggesting permeability barriers and reservoir compartmentalization. Repeating earthquakes occur along narrow fault segments, indicating repeated rupture of localized slip patches. To further enhance detection, we use QuakeMatch, a single-station template matching workflow using high-SNR events as templates at the station with the best waveform quality and data completeness. This expands the catalog from 3,647 to 12,899 events, lowering the magnitude of completeness and revealing numerous low-magnitude earthquakes previously missed by the automatic STA/LTA processing due to low signal-to-noise or waveform overlap. The resulting catalog shows swarm-like activity typical of fluid-driven seismicity and episodic bursts. A prominent sequence on 15 November 2020 (MLX  = 4.08) is preceded by foreshocks and followed by multiple MLX ≥ 3.0 aftershocks. Gutenberg–Richter analysis indicates a decrease in b-values prior to the mainshock, consistent with stress build-up and suggesting potential precursory behaviour relevant for operational monitoring.

How to cite: Kaur, S., Toledo, T., Kraft, T., and Simon, V.: Characterization of microseismicity at the Húsmúli reinjection area, Hengill Geothermal Field, Southwest Iceland​, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8098, 2026.

EGU26-8208 | ECS | Orals | ERE5.1

Nucleation and rupture of induced earthquakes in Groningen confined to the gas reservoir 

Meng Li, Andre R Niemeijer, Femke C Vossepoel, and Ylona van Dinther

To assess seismic hazard in the Groningen gas field, it is crucial to understand earthquake source processes, including the locations of nucleation and possible arrest. These fundamental characteristics, however, remain poorly constrained by seismological observations due to limited resolution. Interpretations of seismological observations are often inconsistent because the focal depth inversion uncertainty (~300 m) is comparable to reservoir thickness (50-300 m). Two fault segments, the velocity-weakening anhydrite layer within the caprock sequence and the velocity-strengthening sandstone reservoir experiencing substantial healing, are suggested to be seismogenic [1]. However, their respective roles in nucleation and rupture remain unclear. Additionally, whether ruptures can propagate into the over- and underburden layers is also debated, yet this is a key constraint for the maximum possible earthquake magnitude (Mmax).

 

Here, we use physics-based earthquake sequence simulations to investigate how stratigraphic layering, lithology-dependent elastic and frictional properties, and long-term fault healing govern rupture behavior. We find that earthquake nucleation consistently occurs within the sandstone reservoir, even when velocity-weakening friction is assigned to the overlying anhydrite caprock. Rupture propagation is predominantly confined to the reservoir thickness, with only limited penetration into adjacent formations. The anhydrite can only be activated, in rare cases, through rupture propagation. Introducing mechanical heterogeneity exerts a dominant control on rupture behavior by substantially suppressing slip rates and limiting rupture extent, whereas frictional heterogeneity has a comparatively minor effect in the opposite sense. Fully runaway rupture into the underburden is exceedingly rare. It only occurs in one out of 2,000 simulations and requires an extreme and unlikely combination of geometric, mechanical, and frictional conditions. Statistical mapping of simulation outcomes onto the Groningen fault network indicates that most fault segments have 5% or less likelihood of rupture propagating over a distance larger than the reservoir thickness. The likelihood of fully runaway rupture is 0.3%–1% only in a few peripheral regions beyond the locus of recorded earthquake occurrence and below 0.3% elsewhere. Together, these results demonstrate that lithological heterogeneity imposes strong physical constraints on rupture extent, providing robust, physics-based limits on Mmax and improving seismic hazard assessment for Groningen and other energy-producing regions.

 

[1] Li, M., Niemeijer, A., Van Dinther, Y. (2025, Nat. Comm.) https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-63482-3.

How to cite: Li, M., Niemeijer, A. R., Vossepoel, F. C., and van Dinther, Y.: Nucleation and rupture of induced earthquakes in Groningen confined to the gas reservoir, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8208, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8208, 2026.

EGU26-8567 | Orals | ERE5.1

Elevated in-situ Vp/Vs preceding M > 3 hydraulic-fracturing induced earthquakes  

Jian Xu, Yajing Liu, Junlun Li, Marco Roth, Rebecca Harrington, and Yicheng He

Hydraulic-fracturing (HF) induced seismicity has attracted growing global attention, with the recorded maximum magnitudes reaching up to M6.0 in the southern Sichuan basin, China. How to mitigate the induced seismic hazard is key for safe energy development. Three mechanisms are proposed to explain earthquake triggering during HF: fluid diffusion, poroelastic stress perturbations, and aseismic slip, which can act individually or in combination. Although fluid diffusion is widely regarded as the primary driver, tracking pore-pressure evolution in near real time and quantifying its role in the nucleation of moderate-to-strong earthquakes remains challenging. Here we apply a non-tomographic Vp/Vs method (Lin and Shearer, 2007) to the southern Sichuan Basin, China and analyze the spatiotemporal variations of near-source Vp/Vs during three moderate M3-M4 HF induced earthquake sequences. Benefiting from abundant clustered induced seismicity and dense seismic arrays, we resolve Vp/Vs changes at a high resolution of ~2 days and ~150 m. We observe a consistent increase in Vp/Vs from ~1.73 to ~1.80 prior to the moderate-sized earthquakes, suggesting progressive pore-pressure buildup that culminates in seismic slip. In addition, the elevated pore pressure precedes eventual seismic slip by ~5–10 days, highlighting a preparatory phase for earthquake nucleation, which could be a valuable time window for making injection parameter adjustments to mitigate seismic hazard. The ability to resolve observable changes that precede moderate seismic events on such time scales suggests that the in-situ Vp/Vs approach offers a promising near-real-time monitoring strategy for seismic hazard assessment in a HF setting.

How to cite: Xu, J., Liu, Y., Li, J., Roth, M., Harrington, R., and He, Y.: Elevated in-situ Vp/Vs preceding M > 3 hydraulic-fracturing induced earthquakes , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8567, 2026.

EGU26-8716 | ECS | Posters on site | ERE5.1

HydroMech3D: physics-based earthquake-cycle modeling of fluid-driven fault slip with realistic fault geometry 

Zhenhuan Wang, Luca Dal Zilio, Federico Ciardo, and Antonio Rinaldi

Fluid injection associated with geoenergy applications such as geothermal energy, CO2 sequestration, and hydraulic fracturing can alter fault stability through a combination of coupled hydro-mechanical processes. Laboratory experiments and underground observatories have provided valuable constraints on fault friction and near-fault pressure evolution, yet translating these observations to field-scale behavior requires physics-based numerical models that can resolve fault slip under realistic geometrical and mechanical conditions.

A major limitation of existing modeling approaches is the high computational cost of fully coupled three-dimensional simulations. As a result, many studies rely on one-dimensional fault representations or simplified elastic and hydraulic coupling. While such models have provided important insights into key physical mechanisms, they are not well suited to support the design, interpretation, and long-term forecasting of modern injection experiments equipped with dense monitoring systems. These experimental settings increasingly demand three-dimensional models capable of capturing realistic fault geometry, spatially variable frictional and hydraulic properties, and stress interactions beyond reduced-dimensional assumptions.

Here we present HydroMech3D, a physics-based numerical framework designed to efficiently simulate fluid-driven fault slip over earthquake-cycle timescales in three dimensions. The model employs a quasi-dynamic Boundary Element Method, discretizing only the fault surface embedded in elastic medium, thereby avoiding volumetric meshing. Fault slip is governed by rate-and-state friction and coupled to pore-pressure diffusion along the fault. Computational efficiency is achieved through a C++ implementation accelerated by hierarchical matrix from the Bigwham Library, enabling large-scale simulations with realistic fault geometry.

This framework allows systematic investigation of fault-scale heterogeneity, including asperities with contrasting frictional and hydraulic properties, and provides a platform to explore how three-dimensional fault structure influences aseismic slip, stress transfer, and earthquake nucleation during fluid injection. Benchmarking against established earthquake-cycle test cases validates the mechanical solver and establishes a baseline for ongoing fully coupled simulations. HydroMech3D offers a computationally efficient open-source tool to support experiment design, interpretation of near-fault observations, and assessment of induced seismicity in geoenergy applications.

How to cite: Wang, Z., Dal Zilio, L., Ciardo, F., and Rinaldi, A.: HydroMech3D: physics-based earthquake-cycle modeling of fluid-driven fault slip with realistic fault geometry, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8716, 2026.

EGU26-9185 | Posters on site | ERE5.1

Variability of the Seismic Response of the Rittershoffen Geothermal Reservoir to the Series of GRT-1 Stimulations 

Emmanuel Gaucher, Olivier Lengliné, and Jean Schmittbuhl

Between April and June 2013, the GRT-1 well at the Rittershoffen geothermal site in the Upper Rhine Valley (France) underwent three distinct stimulation phases: first a thermal stimulation, then a chemical stimulation, and finally a hydraulic stimulation. These fluid injections significantly enhanced the injectivity index of the well, rendering it suitable for economic exploitation. Throughout these operations, a local surface seismic network continuously monitored the site, recording thousands of unfelt seismic events.

This study builds upon and refines the findings of Lengliné et al. (2017), who focused solely on the hydraulic stimulation of GRT-1, and Maurer et al. (2020), whose interpretations were constrained by uncertain absolute locations of seismic events, particularly in terms of depth. By employing an improved template matching technique and a relative location method, we established a comprehensive seismic event catalog comprising over 3,000 events.

This reliable catalog enables precise tracking of the reservoir’s seismogenic response to the successive yet distinct stimulation types, with high spatial and temporal resolution. Consequently, it allows for an investigation into the potential seismic interplay between these stimulations. Our analysis examines the evolution of key characteristics, including event distribution and clustering, b-value, and seismic injection efficiency across the stimulation phases. The observed differences prompt critical questions regarding the reliability of using responses from prior stimulations to forecast seismogenic behavior during subsequent operations, even for the same site.

How to cite: Gaucher, E., Lengliné, O., and Schmittbuhl, J.: Variability of the Seismic Response of the Rittershoffen Geothermal Reservoir to the Series of GRT-1 Stimulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9185, 2026.

EGU26-9772 | ECS | Posters on site | ERE5.1

Injection-induced seismicity fronts and stress distribution on rough faults 

Hsiao-Fan Lin, Thibault Candela, and Jean-Paul Ampuero

The increasing occurrence of injection-induced earthquakes has raised public concern and highlighted the importance of understanding subsurface processes to assess induced seismic hazards and risks. A feature of natural faults that has not received sufficient attention in induced seismicity modeling is their geometric roughness. We develop a simple physics-based model to investigate how fault roughness can control induced seismicity during fluid injection.

The first approach to modeling along-fault stresses prior to injection is to project the background stress tensor onto the rough fault. In this case, our models and theoretical analysis show that the apparent diffusivity of seismicity fronts can deviate significantly from the hydraulic diffusivity. Faults with realistic roughness generally display slow seismicity migration, producing apparent diffusivities far below the hydraulic values. Thus, seismicity fronts often lag behind the pressure front, especially at low background stresses and small roughness amplitudes. Only in the rare case of very rough faults stressed very close to failure, apparent diffusivity can exceed the hydraulic diffusivity, leading to seismicity fronts that outpace pressure fronts. 

The second approach to modeling along-fault stresses prior to injection is to simulate stress evolution after multiple tectonic rupture cycles. This ongoing work explores the resulting stress heterogeneity after multiple tectonic rupture cycles and examines whether seismicity migration follows the same trend as in the first approach, i.e., whether seismicity migration is generally slower than the pressure front on rough faults.

Apart from seismicity migration, the magnitude-frequency statistics are also analyzed. Along this single rough fault the frequency-magnitude distribution is bimodal. These results demonstrate how fault roughness and stress conditions control the induced seismicity through their influence on the criticality of the fault and stress transfer, and link long-term fault loading processes with short-term seismicity migration patterns in fluid injection scenarios.

How to cite: Lin, H.-F., Candela, T., and Ampuero, J.-P.: Injection-induced seismicity fronts and stress distribution on rough faults, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9772, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9772, 2026.

EGU26-11254 | ECS | Orals | ERE5.1

Investigating fracture and stress controls on induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs with a coupled THM model 

Gaëlle Toussaint, Stephen A. Miller, and Benoît Valley

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) aim to provide sustainable energy by increasing the permeability of deep, low-productivity reservoirs through hydraulic stimulation. While micro-seismicity is an expected outcome of stimulation, larger induced earthquakes such as those recorded in Basel (2006) and Pohang (2017) remain a major challenge for the safe deployment of deep geothermal projects. This highlights the need for physics-based models capable of resolving the coupled processes and fault behavior that control induced seismicity, and of assessing how reservoir properties and stimulation strategies influence seismicity rates and maximum magnitudes.

We present a numerical framework designed to investigate how coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes govern fault reactivation and induced seismicity in EGS. The model explicitly couples fluid flow, heat transfer, and stress evolution, and incorporates stress-dependent deformation, fault reactivation, and a built-in earthquake detection algorithm based on deviatoric strain rate. This approach enables consistent identification of induced events within simulations and quantification of their magnitudes, providing a process-based framework to explore the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity. To resolve fault complexity and process coupling at high spatial and temporal resolution, the model is implemented using high-performance computing tools, enabling efficient exploration of a wide range of scenarios.

Preliminary simulations of the 2006 Basel project reproduce key seismic characteristics, including b-values and maximum magnitudes consistent with observations. Early tests on different fracture networks indicate that fracture size strongly influences the resulting seismicity. Ongoing work systematically investigates the roles of fracture size, fracture criticality, and stress ratio in controlling induced seismic behavior. Overall, this modelling framework provides a flexible tool to explore the physical mechanisms driving induced seismicity in EGS and to support the development of safer stimulation strategies.

How to cite: Toussaint, G., Miller, S. A., and Valley, B.: Investigating fracture and stress controls on induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs with a coupled THM model, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11254, 2026.

EGU26-11445 | Orals | ERE5.1

Sedimentary heterogeneity and rock mechanical controls on reservoir compaction in the Groningen gas field 

Johannes Miocic, Sebastian Mulder, and Dmitry Bublik

Induced seismicity associated with gas production in the Groningen gas field, north-eastern Netherlands, underscores the need for improved forecasting of reservoir compaction and stress redistribution during long-term subsurface exploitation. While current geomechanical models typically assume laterally homogeneous reservoir properties, growing evidence suggests that sedimentary heterogeneity exerts a first-order control on sandstone compactional behaviour. This contribution integrates field-scale petrographic analysis with laboratory geomechanical experiments to quantify how inherited geological heterogeneity governs the mechanical response of the Permian Rotliegend reservoir.

A quantitative petrographic dataset of more than 300 samples from fifteen wells demonstrates that porosity loss across the field is overwhelmingly dominated by mechanical compaction associated with rapid Late Permian burial beneath the Zechstein evaporites, accounting for 55–95% of total porosity reduction. However, compaction efficiency varies systematically with depositional texture and early cementation rather than burial depth alone. Grain size, sorting, lamination, and early dolomite and anhydrite cementation controlled initial packing density and grain-contact geometry, leading to strong spatial heterogeneity in preserved intergranular volume and inferred mechanical properties.

To directly test the mechanical implications of this heterogeneity, we conducted triaxial deformation experiments on Rotliegend sandstones with comparable porosity (~12%) but contrasting cementation styles and clay contents. Experiments performed under reservoir-relevant stress and temperature conditions show that approximately 30% of total strain is inelastic, with time-dependent deformation occurring during stress relaxation phases. Samples containing higher clay contents accumulated the largest inelastic strain, while strongly dolomite- and quartz–anhydrite-cemented sandstones exhibited higher stiffness but still significant non-elastic deformation. Microstructural analyses using SEM reveal grain-scale damage patterns consistent with cement- and clay-controlled deformation mechanisms.

Together, these results demonstrate that reservoir compaction in Groningen is strongly conditioned by inherited sedimentary and diagenetic heterogeneity that is not captured in conventional homogeneous models. Incorporating these controls into geomechanical frameworks is essential for more realistic prediction of reservoir deformation and associated induced seismic hazard during subsurface resource exploitation.

How to cite: Miocic, J., Mulder, S., and Bublik, D.: Sedimentary heterogeneity and rock mechanical controls on reservoir compaction in the Groningen gas field, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11445, 2026.

EGU26-12093 | ECS | Orals | ERE5.1

Time-Lapse HVSR Analysis for Shallow Subsurface Monitoring at the CaMI.FRS CO2 Sequestration Site  

Tianyang Li, Tao Yu, Nian Yu, Yichun Yang, and Yu Jeffrey Gu

Seismic monitoring is a critical component of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects, ensuring the containment security of injected fluids and assessing the risks associated with induced seismicity. While fluid injection is known to alter effective stress and pore pressure—potentially inducing velocity changes or fault reactivation—distinguishing these deep subsurface signals from near-surface environmental variations remains a significant challenge. This study utilizes the passive source Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) method to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of site response at the CO2 Containment and Monitoring Institute Field Research Station (CaMI.FRS) in Alberta, Canada, providing a robust baseline for long-term integrity monitoring. We analyzed continuous ambient noise data collected between September 2019 and October 2020 from a dense array of short-period seismic stations deployed around the injection well. The injection targets the Basal Belly River Formation at a depth of 300 m. Data processing involved dividing daily records into 150-second windows with 50% overlap, followed by bandpass filtering (0.2–20 Hz) and Konno-Ohmachi smoothing to calculate daily stability-weighted HVSR curves. The results reveal a consistent fundamental resonance frequency (f0) centered at approximately 2 Hz across the study area, corresponding to a soft sediment thickness of 100–150 m overlying the bedrock. While f0 remained relatively stable throughout the monitoring period, the H/V peak amplitude (amplification factor) exhibited significant seasonal time-varying characteristics. Specifically, a strong positive correlation was observed between the amplification factor and environmental variables, including atmospheric temperature, precipitation, and groundwater levels. The amplification factor reached its annual maximum (~2.5–2.6) during the warm, wet summer months (June–August) and dropped to its minimum (~1.5–1.8) during the frozen winter months. These findings suggest that variations in near-surface saturation and soil properties, driven by seasonal climate cycles, significantly modulate seismic site response. Consequently, for effective HVSR-based monitoring of deep CO2 plumes or leakage pathways, it is imperative to decouple these shallow environmental effects from the signals of deep geological alterations. This study demonstrates the efficacy of time-lapse HVSR as a low-cost, non-invasive tool for characterizing site response dynamics and highlights the necessity of multi-physics environmental calibration in CCS monitoring protocols.

How to cite: Li, T., Yu, T., Yu, N., Yang, Y., and Gu, Y. J.: Time-Lapse HVSR Analysis for Shallow Subsurface Monitoring at the CaMI.FRS CO2 Sequestration Site , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12093, 2026.

Underground mining induces seismicity and surface displacement. In Poland, in the Legnica Glogow Copper District near Wroclaw, induced earthquakes are particularly frequent with earthquakes of Mw3 and larger occurring many times a year. These earthquakes have shallow hypocentres of often less than 1 km and mostly above the mined copper layer.

The area around the mines also experiences a fast continuous surface subsidence of several millimeters per year caused by rock as well as groundwater extraction. This surface motion is observed through geodetic measurements on the ground and from space. The rate of surface motion is spatially very heterogeneous. Across wide areas above the active mining it even exceeds 10 mm/yr. Also sudden coseismic acceleration of surface motion is observed at the time of the larger earthquakes through space-borne InSAR. In these cases we often observe motion of several centimeters within a few days and with spatial extensions reaching a few kilometers.

Despite safety measures, the occurrence of some, also larger earthquakes is unexpected in space and time, which poses a particular threat to workers in the mines and but also to the subsurface mine structures as well as generally to the people, settlements and infrastructure above ground.

 

Our study investigates a number of larger events of the recent years by analyzing the locally recorded seismic waveforms jointly with measurements of the surface displacements based on InSAR and partly GNSS measurements. We aim to precisely locate the source processes of larger induced earthquakes and to characterize them as an interplay between shear-failure and collapse using full moment tensor models in a fully Bayesian inference framework. Potentially we can relate collapse and failure to the mining activities or other influences and improve our understanding of these unwanted events for mitigation measures.

The observations are best explained by large negative isotropic components accompanied by apparently significant shear failure mechanisms. Another finding is that our moment estimates systematically exceed the local catalog values. Challenges to be discussed are the impact of our single short-duration source model for possibly an accumulation of multiple events, possibly involving a larger volume and a longer duration, and the potential bias introduced by a simplified velocity model.

How to cite: Sudhaus, H., Witkowski, W., and Moser, S.: Investigating the source processes of underground-mining induced earthquakes based on geodetic and seismic observations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12114, 2026.

EGU26-12236 | ECS | Posters on site | ERE5.1

Fault Network Activation During Controlled Hydraulic Stimulation Experiments in the BedrettoLab 

Martina Rosskopf, Anne Obermann, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Kai Bröker, Linus Villiger, and Domenico Giardini

Understanding how faults are activated and earthquakes are triggered is still a central challenge in seismology and seismic hazard assessment. Controlled hydraulic stimulation experiments offer a valuable opportunity to study these processes under well-constrained conditions and at spatial and temporal resolutions that are rarely achievable in natural settings. In this study, we present the results of three hydraulic stimulations experiments conducted at the Bedretto Underground Laboratory and monitored by a dense, high-sensitivity seismic network.

These experiments revealed a complex spatio-temporal evolution of induced seismicity, characterized by the activation of a multi-segment fault network. Two dominant seismic clusters were activated early on and show a clear spatial connection to the injection borehole, suggesting that pore pressure is the main driver of seismicity within these clusters. At later stages, a third cluster with a different orientation was activated, despite showing no obvious direct hydraulic connection to the injection interval. Seismicity within this cluster occurred with a temporal delay compared to the other two clusters. This suggests that the fault activation was likely driven by indirect processes such as aseismic deformation, stress transfer, and delayed fluid migration.

The observed fault network activation closely resembles patterns commonly reported in natural earthquake sequences. These findings suggest that the physical mechanisms controlling fault reactivation and earthquake triggering are largely independent of scale, linking controlled field experiments and natural earthquakes. Our results emphasize the importance of fault network geometry and stress interactions in understanding induced and natural seismicity.

How to cite: Rosskopf, M., Obermann, A., Rinaldi, A. P., Bröker, K., Villiger, L., and Giardini, D.: Fault Network Activation During Controlled Hydraulic Stimulation Experiments in the BedrettoLab, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12236, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12236, 2026.

EGU26-12316 | ECS | Posters on site | ERE5.1

Frictional properties and fluid-induced reactivation of fault rocks from a granitic EGS reservoir 

Sangwoo Woo, Giuseppe Volpe, Luca Coppola, Cristiano Collettini, and Moon Son

In 2017, an MW 5.5 earthquake struck the Pohang region, representing the most damaging seismic event in South Korea, and has been linked in previous studies to hydraulic stimulation at the Pohang Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) site. However, the relative roles of fluid injection, imposed stress state and fault-zone structure in nucleating this event remain a matter of debate, and the laboratory results presented here are intended to illuminate one mechanically plausible scenario rather than provide a unique causal explanation. Despite the scientific and societal importance of this earthquake, the frictional properties of rocks from the Pohang system are still poorly constrained. Here we experimentally characterize the frictional properties and slip behavior during fluid-induced reactivation of granodiorite wall rock powder and fault gouge recovered from the Pohang PX-2 borehole (~3.8 km depth). We first assessed the mineralogical assemblages of the two fault materials, which consist of mixtures of quartz, K-feldspar, plagioclase and phyllosilicates (mostly chlorite), with phyllosilicate contents varying between 15% and 23% for the wall rock and the fault gouge, respectively. We then measured friction, healing rate and the velocity dependence of friction for both materials under water-saturated conditions at normal stresses of 20–100 MPa using the BRAVA apparatus hosted at the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV). We performed frictional experiments in a double-direct-shear configuration, using a protocol consisting of a run-in at 10 µm/s, slide-hold-slide tests (SHS; hold times ranging between 3 and 3000 s), velocity-stepping tests (VS; velocities ranging between 0.3 and 300 μm/s), and fluid-injection tests (pore-pressure increases of 0.25 MPa every 5 min). Steady-state friction coefficients for both materials fall within the Byerlee range (μ ≈ 0.55–0.62). SHS tests reveal that both fault gouge and wall rock exhibit relatively high healing, with β in the range ≈ 0.0046–0.0092. Conversely, velocity-stepping tests reveal that, over the tested stress and velocity range, the wall rock has a slightly velocity-weakening to neutral behavior (a–b = −0.0007 to 0.0020), while fault gouge is predominantly velocity-neutral to strengthening (a–b = 0.0005 to 0.0028). Additional fluid-injection experiments indicate that, despite these slight differences in frictional properties, both the fault gouge and the wall rock can be reactivated under elevated pore pressure, with slip accelerating from creep to millimetre-per-second rates. Accompanying microstructural observations will examine whether differences in grain-size reduction, shear localization, or porosity evolution account for the similar reactivation behavior despite the slightly contrasting frictional properties. Overall, these measurements will help quantify how lithological heterogeneity, rate-and-state parameters, and pore-pressure evolution govern slip stability and the nucleation potential of injection-induced earthquakes in geothermal settings, with important implications for induced-seismicity hazard assessment in granitic EGS reservoirs.

How to cite: Woo, S., Volpe, G., Coppola, L., Collettini, C., and Son, M.: Frictional properties and fluid-induced reactivation of fault rocks from a granitic EGS reservoir, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12316, 2026.

EGU26-12815 | ECS | Posters on site | ERE5.1

Application of Data Science and Machine Learning Techniques for the Prediction of Induced Seismicity 

Leticia Raquel Garay Romero, Licia Faenza, Alex Garcia-Aristizabal, and Anna Maria Lombardi

The prediction of induced seismicity is a critical challenge for geological risk management and the safe operation of industrial facilities, such as geothermal projects. This study focuses on the Cooper Basin in Australia. We applied data science and machine learning techniques to analyze seismic time series, integrating two data sources: discrete seismological events (23,285 events) and continuous operational data sampled every 2 minutes (33,839 records).

The main objective was to develop machine learning models to predict, in future time windows of 10, 30, 60, and 90 minutes, two key variables: the number of seismic events or the maximum magnitude. The XGBoost and Random Forest algorithms were trained and compared. Model performance was evaluated using the , RMSE, and MAE metrics, and their interpretability was analyzed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).

The results demonstrate that both models generate predictions consistent with the observations, showing better predictive performance in the longer time windows (60 and 90 minutes). This approach provides a valuable framework for the monitoring and proactive risk assessment of geothermal operations.

How to cite: Garay Romero, L. R., Faenza, L., Garcia-Aristizabal, A., and Lombardi, A. M.: Application of Data Science and Machine Learning Techniques for the Prediction of Induced Seismicity, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12815, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12815, 2026.

EGU26-13011 | Posters on site | ERE5.1

Enhancing Long-Term Seismic Analysis of Swiss Geothermal Projects through Waveform Similarity 

Tania Toledo, Verena Simon, Toni Kraft, and Tobias Diehl

Induced seismicity remains a significant challenge for the development of deep geothermal energy projects, with continued challenges at both the scientific and operational levels. 

Scientific level: Seismic monitoring at geothermal sites is commonly limited to periods of active operations such as hydraulic stimulation and testing, whereas datasets documenting the seismic response during shut-in and post-operational phases remain scarce. However, larger-magnitude earthquakes have been observed during shut-in phases, and in some cases months later, despite limited information on seismic activity during the active period. As a result, the processes governing delayed, larger-magnitude induced earthquakes remain poorly understood. 

Operational level: During active operations, the spatio-temporal evolution of induced seismicity provides one of the few direct indicators of subsurface processes. Real-time insight into whether seismicity evolves as expected or migrates toward potentially hazardous structures is essential for timely mitigation. Advanced Traffic Light Systems (ATLS) assess seismic hazard and risk based on observed seismic responses and rely on statistical and hydromechanical models to forecast the likelihood of induced events over the following hours to days. The reliability of these forecasts critically depends on the quality of the underlying earthquake catalog. Improved detection and location of small events and more robust magnitude estimates can substantially enhance hazard assessments and operational decision-making. 

To address these challenges, we introduce QuakeMatch (QM), a toolbox that leverages waveform similarity to improve seismic monitoring in both real-time and long-term applications. The workflow employs template matching based on events from a manually revised catalog, followed by refined magnitude estimation, event relocation of assembled events, and statistical analysis. 

We demonstrate the application of QM using the case studies from the Basel and Haute-Sorne deep geothermal projects. The Basel case is currently covered by earthquake catalogs with strongly varying location precision and completeness. A template-matched catalog by Herrmann et al. (2019), covering the period 2006–2019, does not include relocations and has not been updated since its publication. Here, QM is used to build a homogeneous long-term catalog of consistently high-precision earthquake locations that will improve our ability to assess the long-term response of this field over two decades up to the present day. For the Haute-Sorne case, we demonstrate the real-time application of QM, illustrating its potential to better inform advanced induced-seismicity-mitigation procedures (e.g., ATLS) with more reliable, consistent, and sensitive earthquake catalogs. Together, these examples illustrate the potential of combining long-term catalog enhancement with real-time monitoring to support safer and more informed geothermal operations. 

How to cite: Toledo, T., Simon, V., Kraft, T., and Diehl, T.: Enhancing Long-Term Seismic Analysis of Swiss Geothermal Projects through Waveform Similarity, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13011, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13011, 2026.

EGU26-13423 | ECS | Orals | ERE5.1 | ERE Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture

Understanding fluid injection-induced earthquakes: From causal mechanisms to fault frictional slip 

Wenzhuo Cao

The global energy transition increasingly relies on the sustainable use of the subsurface, which commonly involves fluid injection. Such injection can induce earthquakes, posing significant challenges to the safety and operability of geo-energy applications. Addressing these challenges requires a geomechanical understanding of induced seismicity and the coupled subsurface processes that govern it. This Award Lecture introduces recent research on fluid injection-induced earthquakes, spanning the evaluation of causal mechanisms to an in-depth understanding of the fault-slip processes that control earthquake magnitude and frequency.

The first part of the presentation focuses on identifying and evaluating the causal mechanisms for injection-induced earthquakes. The problem is formulated as assessing the susceptibility of fracture and fault slip driven by coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes in fractured porous media. Through several geo-energy case studies, it is demonstrated that induced seismicity commonly results from fracture and fault reactivation through multiple, co-occurring mechanisms. The relative contribution of these mechanisms largely depends on regional geology, fracture and fault properties, ambient stress conditions, and operational parameters. Fluid overpressure typically develops rapidly following injection and may influence a large area, depending on hydraulic connectivity and fault permeability. Poroelastic stressing accompanies fluid pressurisation, with its contributions controlled by the distance to susceptible faults and fault orientation relative to the ambient stress field. Thermal stressing is generally more spatially localised around injection wells but can become dominant over longer timescales. In addition, fault slip-induced stress transfer can explain seismicity beyond the region affected by fluid pressure and poroelastic stress changes. Understanding these mechanisms enables the development of physics-based approaches for induced seismicity hazard assessment that explicitly account for both geological conditions and operational strategies.

The second part of the presentation addresses fault frictional slip processes that ultimately control the earthquake magnitude and frequency. Three key governing processes are identified for injection-induced fault slip: fluid pressurisation, hydraulic diffusion, and frictional nucleation, each characterised by a distinct timescale. Their interactions give rise to a wide range of induced earthquake behaviours. To disentangle their combined effects, a coupled hydro-mechanical-frictional modelling framework was developed that integrates frictional contact models for faults with poroelastic models for surrounding rocks. The results have shown that frictional properties exert first-order control on fault slip regimes and the maximum earthquake magnitude, whilst fluid pressurisation primarily governs earthquake frequency and also influences the maximum magnitude through poroelastic stressing. These effects are further modulated by hydraulic diffusion, highlighting the role of reservoir hydraulic conductivity in controlling how injected fluids interact with distant faults. Building upon this understanding, this contribution illustrates how fluid pressurisation rate influences induced earthquake magnitude and frequency, and discusses the implications for designing injection strategies that minimise seismic risk while maintaining operational efficiency.

Acknowledgement: I gratefully acknowledge the support and nomination by Prof. Sevket Durucan, Dr. Suzanne Hangx, Prof. Chris Spiers, Prof. Paul Glover, and Prof. Keita Yoshioka, and the many collaborators who contributed to the research presented.

How to cite: Cao, W.: Understanding fluid injection-induced earthquakes: From causal mechanisms to fault frictional slip, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13423, 2026.

EGU26-14235 | ECS | Orals | ERE5.1

Signatures of flow path creation in isotropic components of microseismic moment tensors at Utah FORGE 

Peter Niemz, Gesa Petersen, Jim Rutledge, Katherine Whidden, and Kris Pankow

The Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) is a field-scale laboratory for the study of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) in low-permeable granitic and metamorphic basement rocks. Utah FORGE comprises a highly deviated injection–production well pair reaching a depth of ~2.5km and temperatures above 220°C. The site is monitored by multiple comprehensive microseismic networks with sensors installed at the surface, in shallow boreholes, and in deep boreholes at reservoir level. Following high-pressure hydraulic stimulation campaigns in 2022 and 2024, the wells were successfully connected through at least two principal fracture zones.

We study the induced microseismicity and its relation to flow path creation processes by performing waveform-based full moment tensor (MT) inversions for >180 events (local magnitude ML 0.0–1.9) recorded during the 2024 stimulations. Including non–double–couple (non-DC) or, more specifically, isotropic components helps characterize a complex reservoir development. Locally, most events exhibit highly similar strike-slip mechanisms consistent with the regional stress field, though minor rotations are observed between different fractured zones. We interpret well-resolved positive isotropic components as indicators for tensile opening components in the microseismic events. The maximum isotropic component increases with cumulative injected volume. Interestingly, the tensile components are more pronounced in areas dominated by fault reactivation compared to zones characterized by the opening of new hydraulic fractures and fracture networks. Our analysis highlights the complex interplay between the hydraulic activation of pre-existing fractures and the hydraulic opening of newly formed macrofractures during the stimulations at Utah FORGE. While resolving microseismic non-DC components requires a thorough, challenging analysis of resolution and uncertainties, their inclusion in routine monitoring can help illuminate not only where the reservoir is breaking but also how the hydraulic connection is established.

How to cite: Niemz, P., Petersen, G., Rutledge, J., Whidden, K., and Pankow, K.: Signatures of flow path creation in isotropic components of microseismic moment tensors at Utah FORGE, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14235, 2026.

EGU26-14295 | ECS | Posters on site | ERE5.1

Investigating the Correlation Between Post-Injection Trailing Seismicity and Wellhead Pressure Decay in Enhanced Geothermal Systems 

Riccardo Minetto, Zhiwei Wang, Olivier Lengliné, and Jean Schmittbuhl

Injection of fluids during reservoir stimulation aims to enhance reservoir permeability but induces seismic activity that persists for several hours to several months after injection has ceased. Physical and hybrid models have been successfully applied to reproduce and forecast observed seismicity rates during and after injection. However, these models are typically site-dependent, raising the question of whether a general relationship between pressure and seismicity decay can be observed across different sites and operations.

In this study, we investigate the correlation between post-injection pore pressure decay and the decrease in seismicity rate using data from multiple EGS injection operations that share similar properties. First, the performance of several empirical statistical models is evaluated to describe the decrease in seismicity rate. Second, wellhead pressure decay is shown to be best described by a simple exponential model. Lastly, we introduce a time-to-fraction metric to compare the pressure and seismicity evolution after shut-in. We show that the times required to reach a given fraction of the initial rate for both pressure and seismicity are correlated, with pressure evolution being slower than seismicity rate evolution. No correlation is observed between seismicity decay and injection parameters such as injected volume, average injection pressure, or injection duration. These observations suggest that pore pressure has a limited influence on seismicity decay, which has strong implications for reservoir management.

How to cite: Minetto, R., Wang, Z., Lengliné, O., and Schmittbuhl, J.: Investigating the Correlation Between Post-Injection Trailing Seismicity and Wellhead Pressure Decay in Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14295, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14295, 2026.

EGU26-14814 | Orals | ERE5.1

Micro-seismicity in the Hverahlíð high-temperature geothermal field, Hengill, SW-Iceland 

Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir, Ásdís Benediktsdóttir, Egill Árni Gudnason, Rögnvaldur Líndal Magnússon, Sæunn Halldórsdóttir, Gudni Axelsson, Helga Margrét Helgadóttir, and Sveinborg H. Gunnarsdóttir

The Hverahlíð high-temperature geothermal field is located in the southern part of the Hengill volcanic complex in southwest Iceland. Prior to the onset of geothermal production in 2016, seismic activity in the area was limited. Since then, persistent micro-seismicity has been detected, characterised by a diffuse spatial pattern and only minor swarm activity. Despite covering just ~2 km², Hverahlíð hosts some of Iceland’s most productive geothermal wells, with measured temperature exceeding 300°C at around 1.5 km depth.

In this study, we analyse seismicity in Hverahlíð from 2016 to 2025, recorded by a varying number of seismometers (14 to 40) deployed across the wider Hengill area. The core network consists of permanent stations operated by Iceland GeoSurvey (ÍSOR) for ON Power, supplemented by the regional SIL-network of the Icelandic Meteorological Office. Additionally, 30 temporary stations were installed during the COSEISMIQ project (2018–2021), significantly improving the local detection capability and spatial resolution.

Seismicity in Hverahlíð is dominantly micro-seismicity, with ~90% of the activity of ML < 1.0, and a magnitude range of ML -0.3 to 3.5. High-resolution relative relocations show that seismicity is confined to 2-3.5 km depth below sea level, i.e., located slightly below the bottom of the production wells and organised in one main cluster and another significantly smaller cluster, both trending NNE-SSW within the production area.

Although the Hverahlíð area is highly fractured with cross-cutting faults trending from NNE-SSW to ENE-WSW, the observed seismicity does not directly illuminate known surface faults. Instead, the earthquake distribution reflects the geothermal production zone, closely matching the geometry of the geothermal system as inferred from existing resistivity models. The earthquake depth distribution may reflect, at least partially, cooling and thermal contraction of the hot host rock induced by deep fluid convection linked to the heat source of the geothermal system. Comparison with other high-temperature geothermal systems in Iceland suggests that the seismicity may delineate the base of a highly permeable convective geothermal reservoir.

Despite considerable production driven pressure draw-down in Hverahlíð, only around 18% of earthquake source mechanisms show pure normal faulting, whereas 55% show pure strike-slip faulting. As the production area will grow in lateral extent in coming years through planned step-out-wells, a corresponding increase in the lateral extent of seismicity is possible.

How to cite: Ágústsdóttir, T., Benediktsdóttir, Á., Gudnason, E. Á., Magnússon, R. L., Halldórsdóttir, S., Axelsson, G., Helgadóttir, H. M., and Gunnarsdóttir, S. H.: Micro-seismicity in the Hverahlíð high-temperature geothermal field, Hengill, SW-Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14814, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14814, 2026.

The injection of produced water back into producing permeable formations is regarded to be of low risk of inducing earthquakes because injection into producing conventional reservoirs generally does not lead to a net increase in reservoir pressure. The rise of production from tight unconventional reservoirs, on the other hand, required injection into non-producing aquifers. While unsurprising in hindsight, the concomitant increase in induced seismicity was unexpected based on the assumption, later shown to be false, that faults in stable cratonic sedimentary basins such as those in Texas and Oklahoma are not critically stressed. Complicating matters more, seismicity preferentially occurred in crystalline basement well below the injection target. Geomechanical models demonstrate that this response can be attributed to poroelastic stresses that are active over a larger distance and greater depth than the direct pore pressure disturbance. Our fully coupled poroelastic finite element simulations also demonstrated that in basins of large-volume injection, stress changes cannot be attributed to a single well or injection operation but reflect the cumulative effect of multiple disposal and production wells on a regional scale, making mitigation significantly more challenging. The difficulty of hindcasting observed seismic events on known and well-instrumented faults also demonstrated that effective forecasting of a seismic response would be difficult. This presentation will discuss viable approaches to mitigating the induced seismicity risk, concluding that active pressure management and avoiding injection in close vicinity to known large faults or close to infrastructure are perhaps the most effective approaches for mitigating earthquake risk associated with large-volume injection of wastewater and CO2 into aquifers.

How to cite: Eichhubl, P., Haddad, M., and Bump, A.: The geomechanics of induced seismicity associated with large-volume fluid injection—implications for risk mitigation , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15038, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15038, 2026.

EGU26-16611 | ECS | Posters on site | ERE5.1

Stress perturbations and fault reactivation during cold fluid Injection - impact of hydraulic anisotropy  

Tatia Sharia, Birgit Müller, and Andreas Rietbrock

Cold fluid injection into a hot subsurface reservoir alters the in situ temperature, pore pressure, and stress fields through multiple interacting physical mechanisms. Poroelastic stress changes arise from pressure diffusion, whereas thermomechanical stresses are driven by reservoir cooling and associated thermal contraction. In this study, we investigate how hydraulic anisotropy in the reservoir controls the spatio-temporal evolution of these stress perturbations and related failure potential. We present results from fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) simulations using a three-dimensional reservoir-scale generic model, considering different injection scenarios, including single injection wells and doublets, as well as isotropic and anisotropic hydraulic properties. In general, both temperature and pore pressure variations affect the radial and tangential stress components relative to the injection site in distinct ways, even under isotropic material conditions. This distinction is critical for evaluating slip tendency and calculating Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) for the faults in the vicinity of the injection well. For anisotropic reservoir conditions, we compare the temporal evolution of pore pressure and temperature during single-well injection against isotropic reference cases and assess the implications for ΔCFS. For 20 years of continuous injection and permeability anisotropy factor of 10, the temperature front propagates approximately 20 times faster along the high-permeability direction. While the rate of pressure diffusion scales with the permeability component in the direction of propagation, the resulting pressure magnitude is governed by permeability components in the perpendicular directions. Similarly, thermally induced stresses evolve more rapidly in high-permeability directions and more slowly in low-permeability directions, as well as producing different magnitude changes in radial and tangential stress components. The modeled ΔCFS indicates that although fault orientation influences the calculated stress changes, the dominant control arises from directional fluid flow associated with hydraulic anisotropy. In conclusion, hydraulic anisotropy exerts a first-order control on the spatial and temporal distribution of pressure and temperature perturbations, leading to pronounced directional variations in induced stress fields and the corresponding Coulomb failure stress evolution in the vicinity of geothermal boreholes. These results provide a basis for optimized drill site selection and well orientation strategies aimed at minimizing fault reactivation and reducing the risk of injection-induced seismicity. 

 

How to cite: Sharia, T., Müller, B., and Rietbrock, A.: Stress perturbations and fault reactivation during cold fluid Injection - impact of hydraulic anisotropy , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16611, 2026.

EGU26-17447 | ECS | Posters on site | ERE5.1

Understanding the Non-Stationary Nature of Human-Induced Earthquakes and its Impact on Geothermal Energy Production 

Lada Dvornik, Annemarie Muntendam-Bos, Jan Dirk Jansen, and Loes Buijze

Anthropogenic activity in the subsurface causes stress perturbations which can lead to the onset of seismicity. One of the notorious examples is the Groningen gas field in the northeast part of the Netherlands which is among the largest in Europe. Hydrocarbons have been produced there since 1963 until the field’s ultimate shutdown in October 2023. From December 1991 until January 1st, 2026, total of 1561 events have been recorded in this area, with magnitude ranging from  to . The  events caused extensive damage to buildings and quite a societal unrest as well as scepticism towards subsurface operations in general. Considering, it is crucial to identify an envelope for safe utilization of the subsurface to be able to continue its usage for energy transition while limiting the risk of induced seismicity.

To be able to limit the risk of seismicity from subsurface operations, it is necessary to understand the non-stationary nature of induced seismicity, meaning the underlying physical causes of the observed spatial and temporal variations in event locations and frequency-magnitude distribution. This research is based on the hypothesis that the fault spatial distribution and geometry (dip angle, offset) in conjunction with operational parameters (pressure history, rates, injection temperatures) are the causal processes of the temporal and spatial variations in the Gutenberg-Richter parameters.

I will present the results from modelling production induced seismicity using the Groningen field as a study area. The results include synthetic earthquake catalogues obtained by modelling the event nucleation and magnitudes using a semi-analytical approach of slip weakening faults. For this model, fault geometry and pressure history serve as input. In order to obtain multiple catalogues spanning the full range of uncertainty, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis is conducted for different reservoir and fault properties. Subsequently, several statistical comparison tests of the simulated catalogue with the observed seismicity allows us to derive posterior estimates for our properties and provide crucial insight into how we are doing solving the puzzle of what is causing the observed spatiotemporal behaviour of induced earthquakes.

How to cite: Dvornik, L., Muntendam-Bos, A., Jansen, J. D., and Buijze, L.: Understanding the Non-Stationary Nature of Human-Induced Earthquakes and its Impact on Geothermal Energy Production, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17447, 2026.

EGU26-17827 | ECS | Posters on site | ERE5.1

3D Modeling of fluid-induced seismicity on fault with heterogeneous frictional asperities 

Jiayi Ye, Zhenhuan Wang, Federico Ciardo, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Luca Dal Zilio, and Domenico Giardini

A key challenge in induced seismicity is that fluid injection perturbs stress and pore pressure on faults with heterogeneous properties, leading to complex earthquake nucleation, migration and magnitude. The BedrettoLab (Bedretto Underground Laboratory for Geosciences and Geoenergies), located in the Swiss Alps, provides a unique natural testbed to study how these coupled hydro-mechanical processes interact with fault heterogeneity under controlled injection conditions, with direct access to well-characterized and densely instrumented fault zones. Previous characterization of the target MC fault zone at BedrettoLab show that layers of frictional velocity-strengthening (VS) fault gouge are embedded within velocity-weakening (VW) granitic bare rock, forming a strongly heterogeneous frictional architecture. However, how this frictional partitioning controls fault slip behavior and the magnitude of induced seismicity remains unclear. In this study, we use the newly developed 3D hydro-mechanical model HydroMech3D to explore the interplay between frictional heterogeneity and seismicity in fluid injection simulations, governed by rate- and state-dependent friction. We simulate injection scenarios using parameters and conditions derived from the ongoing FEAR (Fault Activation and Earthquake Rupture) experiments at Bedretto. Our simulations investigate how the spatial distribution of VS and VW patches control seismicity magnitude. By systematically changing the partition of VS and VW patches, we explore its influence on event size distributions and maximum magnitudes. Further simulations are conducted under various hydro-mechanical pre-conditioning conditions, by pre-determining the pressurized patch on the fault via the injection protocol prior to the main injection. These simulations allow us to understand whether fault pre-conditioning may influence the maximum magnitude of induced seismicity. Our results emphasize the critical role of frictional heterogeneity and injection strategy in fault dynamics, providing new insights into the hydro-mechanical behavior of complex fault zones during fluid injection and improving seismic risk assessment and mitigation strategies.

How to cite: Ye, J., Wang, Z., Ciardo, F., Rinaldi, A. P., Dal Zilio, L., and Giardini, D.: 3D Modeling of fluid-induced seismicity on fault with heterogeneous frictional asperities, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17827, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17827, 2026.

EGU26-17977 | Posters on site | ERE5.1

A Hybrid Implicit–Explicit XFEM Framework for Fully Coupled Hydro-Mechanical Dynamic Simulation of Injection-Induced Seismicity 

Mohammad Sabah, Mauro Cacace, Hannes Hofmann, Guido Blöcher, Mohammad Reza Jalali, and Iman R. Kivi

Accurate simulation of injection-induced seismicity requires to solve for strongly coupled hydro-mechanical physics describing processes acting over widely separated spatiotemporal scales, ranging from reservoir scale fluid diffusion to fault nucleation and rapid dynamic rupture. In this study, we present a monolithic hydro-mechanical dynamic framework based on the extended finite element method (XFEM) for modeling fluid-induced fault reactivation governed by rate-and-state friction. Faults are represented as embedded displacement discontinuities within a poroviscoelastic medium, enabling a consistent treatment of fault slip, unilateral contact constraints, stress-dependent permeability evolution, and fluid exchange between the fault and the surrounding porous matrix.

To overcome the computational cost associated with fully implicit time integration, we develop a hybrid implicit–explicit (IMEX) time-integration strategy. The implicit solver is employed during the quasi-static and nucleation phase, while an explicit scheme is activated only during the coseismic stage, once a prescribed slip-velocity threshold is exceeded. This adaptive solver switching allows accurate resolution of the dynamic rupture with substantial reduction of the computational effort. The approach is combined with adaptive time stepping to efficiently capture both slow interseismic evolution and fast seismic transients within a unified framework.

Numerical simulations of fluid injection into a faulted reservoir demonstrate that, despite unconditional stability, fully implicit schemes require minimum time steps comparable to the Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy limit to accurately resolve rupture nucleation and propagation. In contrast, the proposed IMEX formulation can reproduce fault slip evolution, stress redistribution, frictional weakening, seismic moment, and event magnitude with high fidelity, while reducing computational cost by approximately 60–77% relative to fully implicit simulations. Differences between the two approaches are primarily limited to peak slip velocities and rupture speeds, whereas rupture timing, accumulated slip and event-scale seismic metrics remain consistent.

The proposed XFEM-based IMEX framework provides a robust and computationally efficient tool for simulating injection-induced seismicity, offering a practical pathway toward reservoir scale simulations of coupled fault–fluid systems relevant to geo-energy applications and seismic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Sabah, M., Cacace, M., Hofmann, H., Blöcher, G., Reza Jalali, M., and R. Kivi, I.: A Hybrid Implicit–Explicit XFEM Framework for Fully Coupled Hydro-Mechanical Dynamic Simulation of Injection-Induced Seismicity, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17977, 2026.

Mining districts in Chile are located within one of the most seismically active tectonic environments on Earth, which makes it challenging to distinguish between natural crustal seismicity and seismicity potentially influenced by mining. A key open question is whether large-scale mining operations produce a measurable and spatially coherent statistical signature in the surrounding shallow crust. In this study, we evaluate this hypothesis using the Gutenberg–Richter b-value as a quantitative proxy for local stress conditions and the degree of rock mass damage and fracturing. We focus on the seismic environment surrounding major mining districts in Chile, restricting the analysis to shallow crustal events with depths shallower than 10 km. This depth filter aims to isolate the seismic response of the upper crust that is most likely to be affected by mining-related stress perturbations, while reducing the contribution of deeper subduction-driven tectonic seismicity. To resolve spatial variations at kilometer scale, we implement a high-resolution concentric-ring analysis centered on each mining district, using 1 km radial bins extending outward from the extraction centers. To ensure statistical robustness and comparability across sites, the magnitude of completeness (Mc) is estimated dynamically using the maximum curvature method, yielding reference values close to ML ≈ 1.87 for the analyzed catalog. The Gutenberg–Richter b-value is then computed using the Aki–Utsu maximum-likelihood estimator, providing a rigorous and stable framework for inter-site comparisons under contrasting geomechanical and operational settings. The analysis reveals clear and systematic differences depending on the mining method. Underground mining environments show a pronounced increase in b-value (b > 1.5) within the first ~5 km, consistent with elevated rates of microseismicity and enhanced brittle damage associated with caving-related processes. In contrast, open-pit operations exhibit a comparatively stable b-value pattern with lower spatial dispersion. In both settings, b-values progressively converge toward the regional tectonic reference level (b ≈ 1.0) with increasing distance from the extraction centers, suggesting a characteristic radius of direct mining influence on the order of ~15–20 km. These preliminary results show that kilometer-scale mapping of the Gutenberg–Richter b-value provides a sensitive and interpretable metric to quantify the spatial footprint of mining-related seismic perturbations in the shallow crust. The observed b-value gradients offer a practical tool for regional-scale geomechanical monitoring, supporting the discrimination between background tectonic seismicity and elastic stress changes induced by excavation and/or large-volume rock mass caving in Chilean mining districts.

How to cite: Roquer, T. and Ravest, B.: Mining-Related b-Value Anomalies in the Upper Crust: A High-Resolution Ring Analysis Across Chilean Mining Districts , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20770, 2026.

EGU26-21070 | ECS | Orals | ERE5.1

Network Performance Evaluation workflow and test for seismic monitoring of geothermal projects in Switzerland 

Verónica Antunes, Verena Simon, Tania Toledo, and Toni Kraft
Switzerland is investing in geothermal energy solutions to decrease CO2 emissions by 2050. However, geothermal energy exploration can carry the risk of induced seismicity. Adequately managing seismic risk is key to establishing safe and economically viable geothermal projects. To monitor possible induced seismicity, dedicated seismic networks in the vicinity of the monitored projects have to be in place. These networks must be sensitive enough to follow the evolution of the microseismicity and allow the operators to run traffic-light systems and take actions before larger events occur. Current geothermal guidelines establish the minimum monitoring requirements of such networks, providing specific values for Magnitude of Completeness (Mc) and location accuracies.
To adequately monitor geothermal projects in Switzerland, we developed a workflow that goes from network geometry planning to its final installation (Antunes et al., 2025). This workflow includes network performance and evaluation procedures in order to ensure the minimum monitoring requirements proposed in the Good Practice Guide for managing induced seismicity in Switzerland (Kraft et al., 2025). To evaluate beforehand the detection sensitivity of a seismic network, we estimate the Bayesian Magnitude of Completeness (BMC), optimised for Switzerland. We additionally estimate the theoretical location uncertainties inside the network by generating and locating a synthetic catalogue of events, using the 3D velocity model for Switzerland. Both approaches consider the background noise level at the stations and the specific network geometry.
In December 2017, a seismic network was installed to monitor the geothermal activities of the AGEPP project in Lavey-les-Bains, Switzerland. This seismic network was in operation until mid 2023, acquiring the natural seismicity of this active alpine area. We use the public seismic catalogue as input for a template matching (QuakeMatch, Toledo et al., 2024) scan to increase the sensitivity, reducing the initial Mc by 2 orders of magnitude. We evaluate and test the network performance tools of our workflow by comparing the results of our numerical estimations with the resulting seismic catalogues (Mc and location errors). Our results show good agreement between the theoretical methods' estimations and the catalogue data registered with the network, proving that our numerical tools are a good approach to estimate the performance of a network when no earthquake information is available, e.g., right after a network installation.
 
References:
Antunes, V., Kraft, T., Toledo Zambrano, T. A., Reyes, C. G., Megies, T., & Wiemer, S. (2025). Optimising Seismic Networks for Enhanced Monitoring of Deep Geothermal Projects in Switzerland. In Proceedings of the European Geothermal Congress 2025. European Geothermal Energy Council. https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-c-000791611
Kraft, T., Roth, P., Ritz, V., Antunes, V., Toledo Zambrano, T. A., & Wiemer, S. (2025). Good-Practice Guide for Managing Induced Seismicity in Deep Geothermal Energy Projects in Switzerland. ETH Zurich. https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000714220
Toledo, T., Simon, V., Kraft, T., Antunes, V., Herrmann, M., Diehl, T., & Villiger, L. (2024). The QuakeMatch Toolbox: Using waveform similarity to enhance the analysis of microearthquake sequences at Swiss geothermal projects (No. EGU24-13824). Copernicus Meetings. https:.//doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13824

How to cite: Antunes, V., Simon, V., Toledo, T., and Kraft, T.: Network Performance Evaluation workflow and test for seismic monitoring of geothermal projects in Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21070, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21070, 2026.

EGU26-3821 | Orals | ESSI2.7

Reproducible and Scalable cloud-native EO data analysis using openEO  

Pratichhya Sharma, Hans Vanrompay, and Jeroen Dries

Earth Observation (EO) data plays a crucial role in research and applications related to environmental monitoring, enabling informed decision-making. However, the continuously increasing volume and diversity of EO data, distributed across multiple platforms and varying formats, pose challenges for easy access and the development of scalable and reproducible workflows.

openEO addresses these challenges by providing a community-driven, open standard for unified access to EO data and cloud-native processing capabilities. It supports researchers to develop interoperable, scalable and reproducible workflows that can be executed using various programming languages (Python, R or JavaScript).

openEO has become a cornerstone technology across major initiatives in agriculture, natural capital accounting, and land-cover monitoring. In ESA’s WorldCereal project, it provides the scalable framework needed to process global Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 time series and integrate advanced machine-learning models, enabling dynamic 10-meter cropland and crop-type maps. It also supports the Copernicus Global Land Cover service and its tropical forestry component by delivering consistent and repeatable processing chains for annual 10-meter land-cover products, which are crucial for policy reporting and SDG monitoring. Beyond land cover, openEO supports efforts like ESA's World Ecosystem Extent Dynamics project by creating reproducible ecosystem-extent mapping and change detection maps — key elements for biodiversity and environmental management.

Building on this foundation, the openEO Federation, now integrated within the Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (CDSE), provides seamless access to distributed Earth observation data and processing resources through a single, unified interface. By connecting multiple backends, it removes the need to juggle separate accounts or APIs and enables cross-platform workflows over datasets hosted by platforms such as Terrascope and CDSE.

openEO also strongly supports FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) principles. It exposes rich metadata, relies on standardised processes, and encourages the use of reusable workflow definitions. This promotes transparency, reproducibility, and the sharing of algorithms and data across research and operational communities. The approach has been validated in several large-scale implementations, including ESA’s WorldCereal and the JRC’s Copernicus Global Land Cover and Tropical Forestry Mapping and Monitoring Service (LCFM), demonstrating its maturity for both research and production environments.

By enabling reusable, federated, and reproducible Earth observation workflows, openEO is helping to build a more interoperable and efficient computational ecosystem, one that supports scalable innovation, collaboration, and long-term operational monitoring. Therefore, in this session, we aim to spark discussion on how openEO enables federated, FAIR-compliant, and reproducible workflow approaches for large-scale Earth observation applications.

How to cite: Sharma, P., Vanrompay, H., and Dries, J.: Reproducible and Scalable cloud-native EO data analysis using openEO , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3821, 2026.

EGU26-5728 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI2.7

Parallel HPC workflow orchestration with Nextflow, supported by CI/CD and containerization tools for global high resolution evaporation modelling 

Joppe Massant, Oscar Baez-Villanueva, Kwint Delbaere, Diego Fernandez Prieto, and Diego Miralles

The Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) estimates daily land evaporation using a wide range Earth observation forcing datasets. In the project GLEAM-HR funded by the European Space Agency (ESA), we aim to create a global high-resolution daily evaporation dataset at 1 km for a period of eight years (2016–2023). To produce high-resolution evaporation estimates, all forcing data must be processed at 1 km resolution, requiring substantial computational resources. As the complete high-resolution forcing data no longer fits within the memory capacity of single HPC nodes, parallelization tools are necessary. To achieve this parallelization in a seamless way, a workflow orchestration ecosystem is designed that leverages the use of Zarr, Apptainer and Nextflow.

The Zarr ecosystem allows for easily writing to a dataset in parallel. Nextflow is an orchestration tool that allows dynamic job submissions, where the configuration of jobs can depend on the outcome of earlier jobs, such as the spatial domain to be processed. Apptainer is a containerization tool developed for HPC environments, allowing a “build once, deploy anywhere” approach. Combining these tools allows building a workflow orchestration environment that enables the automation of these parallel workflows while optimizing the job sizes for a given HPC environment.

The use of containers allows this workflow to be ported to different hardware without the need to set up all the environments again, making the designed workflow fully reproducible independent of the computing environment. Combining this with Continuous Integration and Continuous Delivery (CI/CD) practices to automate the container building and deployment, code development and workflow execution can be cleanly separated.

In a first test case, this processing workflow is used to produce global datasets of LAI, FPAR and vegetation cover fractions at 1 km resolution.  Future work focuses on the extension of this workflow to the other forcing datasets and the entire pipeline execution.

How to cite: Massant, J., Baez-Villanueva, O., Delbaere, K., Fernandez Prieto, D., and Miralles, D.: Parallel HPC workflow orchestration with Nextflow, supported by CI/CD and containerization tools for global high resolution evaporation modelling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5728, 2026.

EGU26-6238 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI2.7

A prototype Open-Source data-processing pipeline to efficiently combine in-situ data with remote-sensing observations of the Earth 

Robert Reinecke, Annemarie Bäthge, David Noack, Matthias Zink, Simon Mischel, and Stephan Dietrich

In situ and remote sensing data are crucial in earth sciences, as they provide complementary perspectives on environmental phenomena. In situ data, collected directly from the Earth’s surface, offer high accuracy and detailed insights into local conditions, enabling precise measurements of variables such as soil moisture, temperature, and pollutant levels. Conversely, remote sensing data provides for extensive spatial coverage and the ability to monitor changes over time across vast areas, capturing large-scale patterns and trends that in situ data alone cannot reveal. By combining these two data sources and automatically preprocessing them into Analysis-Ready Data, researchers can enhance scientific insights, improve the robustness of machine learning applications, and refine models used to predict environmental changes or assess the impacts of human activity on natural systems. This integrated approach promotes a more comprehensive understanding of complex Earth processes, enabling better-informed decision-making and effective management strategies for sustainable development. However, preprocessing and combining in situ data from different sources can be highly complex, especially for global datasets. Joining this data with remotely sensed products may require substantial computational resources, given the increased number of observational records and high temporal resolutions. Here, we present a prototype of such a pipeline, CULTIVATE, an open-source data-processing pipeline that efficiently cleans in situ records and combines them with remote sensing data to create an automatically curated database. As new in situ data records are inserted, CULTIVATE updates only those records in the final database. In this presentation, we showcase CULTIVATE for over 200,000 global groundwater well observation time series that are merged with an extensive list of other time-series products, and we show how data curators can interact with the data processing pipeline. We further discuss how this prototype can serve as a blueprint for future architecture development for Research Data Infrastructures, how we can implement and enforce international standards, and how we can enable global datacenters to utilize automated data preparation in operational settings.

How to cite: Reinecke, R., Bäthge, A., Noack, D., Zink, M., Mischel, S., and Dietrich, S.: A prototype Open-Source data-processing pipeline to efficiently combine in-situ data with remote-sensing observations of the Earth, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6238, 2026.

EGU26-7115 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI2.7

STeMP: Spatio-Temporal Modelling Protocol 

Jan Linnenbrink, Jakub Nowosad, Marvin Ludwig, and Hanna Meyer

Spatio-temporal predictive modelling is a key method in the geosciences. Often, machine-learning, which can be applied to complex, non-linear and interacting relationships, is preferred over classical (geo)statistical models. However, machine-learning models are often perceived as "black boxes", meaning that it is hard to understand their inner workings. Furthermore, there are several pitfalls associated with the application of machine-learning models in general, and spatio-temporal machine-learning models in particular. This might, e.g., concern the spatial autocorrelation inherent in spatial data, which complicates data splitting for model validation. 

Following from this, it is key to transparently report spatio-temporal models. Transparent reporting can facilitate interpreting, evaluating and reproducing spatio-temporal models, and can be used to determine their suitability for a specific research question. Standardized model protocols are particularly valuable in this context, as they document model parameters, decisions and assumptions. While such protocols exist for machine-learning models in general (e.g., Model Cards, REFORMs), as well as for specific domains like species distribution modelling (ODMAP), such protocols are lacking in the general field of spatio-temporal modelling. 

Here, we present ideas for STeMP (Spatio-Temporal Modelling Protocol), a protocol for spatio-temporal models that fills this gap. The protocol is designed to be beneficial for all parties involved in the modeling process, including model developers, maintainers, reviewers, and end-users. The protocol is implemented as a web application and is structured in three sections: Overview, Model and Prediction. The Overview section contains general metadata, while the following two sections go into more detail. The Model section includes modules describing, for example, the predictors, model validation procedures, and software. The optional Prediction section contains information about the prediction domain, map evaluation, and uncertainty assessment.

To make the protocol useful during model development, warnings are raised when common pitfalls are encountered (e.g., if an unsuitable cross-validation strategy is used). These warnings can be automatically retrieved from a filled protocol, spotlighting potential issues and helping authors and reviewers. Moreover, we provide the optional possibility to generate automated reports and also inspection figures from user-provided inputs (e.g., from model objects as well as from training and test data sets). The protocol is hosted on GitHub (https://github.com/LOEK-RS/STeMP) and hence open to flexible incorporation of feedback from the broader community.

With our presentation, we aim to encourage the discussion of our proposed model report in the spatio-temporal modelling community.

How to cite: Linnenbrink, J., Nowosad, J., Ludwig, M., and Meyer, H.: STeMP: Spatio-Temporal Modelling Protocol, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7115, 2026.

EGU26-9928 | Orals | ESSI2.7

Research data infrastructure evolution for handling km scale simulations of a warming world 

Kameswarrao Modali, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Fabian Wachsmann, Florian Ziemen, Carsten Hinz, Rajveer Saini, and Siddhant Tibrewal

With the advancement of technical capabilities, Earth System Models (ESM) are rapidly moving toward much higher spatial resolutions - down to kilometer scale - to better capture key processes and feedbacks needed for robust climate impact assessments. This growing model complexity places significant demands on data infrastructures, which must evolve to support widespread application of  high-resolution simulations.

This evolution is needed across various stages of the ESM simulation data life cycle, right from the choice of the variables that need to be part of the simulation output, the format of the output, residence period and transfer of the data across various active storage tiers and the final movement to the cold storage tier (tapes) for long time archival. Also tools to handle the discoverability of these data must be developed and implemented. The evolution of the infrastructure also must take hardware constraints into account and should ideally be in line with the FAIR principles.

As part of the Warm World Easier project, these developments were the adaptation of the model output to zarr, a cloud native format, the development of bespoke tools like ‘zarranalyzer’ to handle the movement of the data across storage tiers by creating tarballs suitable also for the tapes, creating reference files for these tarballs in parquet format to summarize the entire dataset and the inception of these into a metadata catalog following the SpatioTemporal Asset Catalog (STAC) standard. Finally, a virtual machine to host the STAC catalog with appropriate access rights for the data providers and data curators within the federated structure, as well as the end users, was set up. 

Applying this data handling concept to km-scale ESM data bridges the gap between infrastructures that produce flagship datasets and those that enable their efficient and reliable reuse by the community. For example, data generated at large, compute-focused HPC centers with limited storage could be transferred to partner centers that provide specialized data services for long-term access and reuse. 

Through the federated and seamless setup of the research data infrastructure, data handling matters are abstracted away from the data users. Hence, the developed setup provides an end to end solution, achieving the objective of providing the km scale ESM simulation output to a broader scientific community tackling the urgent societal problems arising due to a warming planet.

How to cite: Modali, K., Peters-von Gehlen, K., Wachsmann, F., Ziemen, F., Hinz, C., Saini, R., and Tibrewal, S.: Research data infrastructure evolution for handling km scale simulations of a warming world, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9928, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9928, 2026.

EGU26-11128 | Orals | ESSI2.7

Antflow: Simplifying Workflow Sharing and Execution for Digital Twins 

Nicolas Choplain and Gaudissart Vincent

Antflow is a next-generation orchestration and publication framework designed to streamline the operational deployment of Earth Observation (EO) processing workflows, particularly within Digital Twin environments. By automating the transformation of scientific code into interoperable, shareable, and scalable services, Antflow removes the traditional barriers between algorithm development and production-grade execution.

At its core, Antflow enables scientists and developers to publish complex workflows directly from their Git repositories, using OGC Earth Observation Application Packages (EOAP) as the workflow definition mechanism. These EOAP descriptions allow Antflow to instantly expose workflows as OGC API Processes services, enriched with dynamic user interfaces and STAC-compliant cataloguing of outputs. This ensures that every workflow - no matter how experimental or mature - can be discovered, reused, and integrated across Digital Twin platforms.

Antflow’s hybrid orchestration engine distributes tasks across heterogeneous computing environments, from HPC clusters to cloud-native nodes. Git-based lineage guarantees traceability and scientific integrity, while integrated multi-provider retrieval mechanisms (EODAG) simplify access to EO data sources.

A key strength of Antflow is its ability to generate interactive user interfaces automatically. These interfaces allow domain experts, integrators, and end-users to parameterize, run, and monitor workflows through clean, intuitive views.

Antflow is currently used across several projects (CNES Digital Twin Factory, OGC Open Science Persistent Demonstrator). It acts as a middleware layer that bridges algorithm design, operational integration, and stakeholder consumption. By standardizing workflow publication, ensuring reproducibility, and supporting scalable execution, it accelerates the deployment of modelling chains such as 3D environmental reconstruction, forecasting, and multi-sensor analysis workflows.

How to cite: Choplain, N. and Vincent, G.: Antflow: Simplifying Workflow Sharing and Execution for Digital Twins, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11128, 2026.

EGU26-11759 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI2.7

Accelerating Earth System Workflows with In Situ Workflow Task Management 

Manuel Giménez de Castro Marciani, Mario Acosta, Gladys Utrera, Miguel Castrillo, and Mohamed Wahib

Modern experimentation with Earth System Models (ESMs) is accelerated by the employment of automated workflows to handle the multiple steps such as simulation execution, post-processing, and cleaning, all while being portable and tracking provenance. And when executing on shared HPC platforms, users usually face long queue times, which increase the time to solution. The community has proposed to aggregate workflow tasks into a single submission in order to save in queue time with promising results. But by doing this the workflow manager has to deal with the remote task execution that otherwise would have been done by the HPC scheduler.

Therefore, we propose to integrate two workflow managers to create a versatile and general solution for the execution of these aggregated workflows: one that orchestrates the workflow globally and another that is in charge of running tasks within an allocation, which we refer to as "in situ."

In this work, we performed a qualitative and quantitative comparison of three suitable and representative workflow and workload managers running in situ, HyperQueue, Flux, and PyCOMPSs, on three of the top 20 HPCs: Lumi, MareNostrum 5, and Fugaku. We evaluated the portability and setup, failure tolerance, programmability, and provenance tracking of each of the tools in the qualitative part. In the quantitative part, we measured total runtime, task runtime, CPU and memory usage, disk write, and node imbalance of workflows running a memory-bound, a CPU-bound, and an IO-intensive application.

Our initial results yield recommendations to the community as to which workflow manager to use in situ. HyperQueue's easy installation and portability makes it the best solution for non-x86 platforms. Flux had the easiest running setup due to its preparedness to run nested in Slurm. Finally, PyCOMPSs is the only tool out of the three to provide provenance tracking with RO-Crates.

How to cite: Giménez de Castro Marciani, M., Acosta, M., Utrera, G., Castrillo, M., and Wahib, M.: Accelerating Earth System Workflows with In Situ Workflow Task Management, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11759, 2026.

EGU26-12058 | ECS | Orals | ESSI2.7

Optimizing the Destination Earth Workflow with in situ HPC Task Orchestration 

Pablo Goitia, Manuel Giménez de Castro Marciani, and Miguel Castrillo

Traditionally, climate simulations are executed on High-Performance Computing (HPC) platforms, organized in workflows that involve all the steps for the complete execution of the model, data processing, and management tasks. With the sustained increase in the computing capacity of these machines over the years, the accuracy and resolution of climate simulations have reached levels never seen before.

In this context, the European Commission launched the Destination Earth initiative, aimed at developing a digital twin of the Earth for the adaptation to climate change. This initiative seeks to operationalize the running of very high-resolution climate simulations that are coupled with applications that consume their data as it is produced. In order to address the challenge of processing the hundreds of terabytes that each single simulation involves, the ClimateDT project implemented a data streaming approach. This means that any delay between the production time of the climate model data and the subsequent consumption by the post-processing applications results in a workflow misalignment, leading to unacceptable delays in the total execution time. This poses unprecedented challenges on the workflow management side.

One of the main causes of the misalignments that commonly occur lies in the long time that each of the many thousands of tasks of the workflow spends in the queues of the HPC job schedulers, such as Slurm. To address this issue, the community proposed to aggregate workflow tasks into a single submission to the HPC without altering their execution logic—a technique known as task aggregation. Previous studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of this approach for climate workflows, yielding promising results. However, the current implementation is limited, as the task execution within an allocation still relies on the workflow manager, which is not able to perform the fine-grained workflow orchestration that a dedicated tool could do in a convenient way.

To overcome this limitation, we propose in this work to integrate existing HPC software into the Autosubmit Workflow Manager to enable in situ orchestration of aggregated tasks, such as the renowned Flux Framework and Parsl. This integration aims to abstract both developers and users from the complexity of managing supercomputing resources, providing an easy-to-use interface. The proposed approach is validated using the Destination Earth workflow to enable more complex, structured forms of task aggregation while reducing queue times in large-scale simulations.

How to cite: Goitia, P., Giménez de Castro Marciani, M., and Castrillo, M.: Optimizing the Destination Earth Workflow with in situ HPC Task Orchestration, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12058, 2026.

EGU26-14853 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI2.7

AutoML: A Flexible and Scalable HPC Framework for Efficient Machine Learning in Atmospheric Modelling 

Isidre Mas Magre, Hervé Petetin, Alessio Melli, James Petticrew, Michael Orieux, Miguel Hortelano, Luiggi Tenorio, and David Mathas

The integration of Machine Learning (ML) into Earth System Sciences has revolutionized predictive modeling. However, the transition from local prototyping to large-scale deployment is often hindered by fragmented codebases and the manual overhead of managing complex hyperparameter tuning on High-Performance Computing (HPC) clusters. We present AutoML, a framework developed to automate and standardize the ML lifecycle in HPC environments by leveraging the open-source Autosubmit workflow manager.

AutoML employs a configuration-driven architecture that decouples model logic from workflow execution. By utilizing Autosubmit’s proven capability to handle complex dependencies and remote HPC environments, AutoML allows researchers to scale experiments—from initial prototyping to production-level global pipelines—through a single configuration file. This approach directly addresses the challenge of experiment reproducibility and efficiency within ML projects. The framework automates critical steps in the typical ML workflow, including hyperparameter search space optimization, multi-node distributed training, and dynamic resource allocation on heterogeneous HPC architectures.

We demonstrate the framework’s utility through Atmospheric Composition applications at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC). By providing a standardized structural template AutoML fosters collaboration and ensures that advancements in machine learning for atmospheric science are scalable, computationally efficient, and transferable across research lines.

How to cite: Mas Magre, I., Petetin, H., Melli, A., Petticrew, J., Orieux, M., Hortelano, M., Tenorio, L., and Mathas, D.: AutoML: A Flexible and Scalable HPC Framework for Efficient Machine Learning in Atmospheric Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14853, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14853, 2026.

EGU26-15002 | Orals | ESSI2.7

Toward Federated Agentic Workflows for Numerical Weather Prediction With Chiltepin 

Christopher Harrop and Isidora Jankov

The development of efficient, scalable, and interoperable workflow management systems is critical for supporting reproducible research to drive the scientific advancement of earth system modeling capabilities. Many workflow systems targeted for earth system science have been developed to meet that challenge, each having similar capabilities as well as some unique strengths. However, the earth system modeling community now faces additional challenges that impose new requirements. The landscapes of both high performance computing (HPC) environments and numerical modeling are evolving rapidly. HPC systems are composed of a growing diversity of hardware architectures that may be hosted on-prem or by a variety of cloud vendors. Earth model system components are also increasing in diversity as research to augment or replace traditional physics based models with machine learning models progresses. Additionally, a growing diversity of end-users with varying levels of knowledge and expertise require agentic workflows that can respond to their requests. A consequence of this rapid growth in diversity is a growing need to run workflows that span multiple systems in order to optimize data locality and access to resources that maximize performance of specific model components. The availability of, and requirement for, diversity naturally leads to a requirement for federated workflows that effectively harness the computational power of a diverse set of resources distributed both geographically and across multiple administrative domains. In this presentation, we introduce and report our progress with the development of Chiltepin, the first known federated numerical weather prediction workflow system within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Chiltepin is designed to address key challenges in numerical modeling, particularly those related to sustainable progress in a changing NWP landscape characterized by increasing diversity of technologies and use of high-performance computing resources distributed across both geographical and administrative boundaries.

How to cite: Harrop, C. and Jankov, I.: Toward Federated Agentic Workflows for Numerical Weather Prediction With Chiltepin, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15002, 2026.

EGU26-17077 | Posters on site | ESSI2.7

ARCA: A Scalable and Reproducible AI-Driven Workflow Platform for Climate Change and Natural Hazard Applications 

Maria Mirto, Marco De Carlo, Shahbaz Alvi, Shadi Danhash, Antonio Aloisio, and Paola Nassisi

Earth System Sciences (ESS) are increasingly characterized by large data volumes and high computational demands, which make complex analyses difficult to manage using ad hoc or manual solutions. This challenge is amplified when heterogeneous data sources, such as Internet of Things (IoT) infrastructures including wireless sensor networks, video cameras and drones, must be combined with high-performance computing (HPC) environments for climate modelling and advanced artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms.

The ARCA (Artificial Intelligence Platform to Prevent Climate Change and Natural Hazards) project, funded by the Interreg IPA ADRION Programme, was designed to respond to these challenges by providing a practical, workflow-based platform aimed at supporting climate change and natural hazard applications and, ultimately, reducing their impacts. The main objective of ARCA is to strengthen the cross-border operational capacity of stakeholders across the Adriatic–Ionian region, involving Italy, Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, Serbia and Greece. The platform supports the monitoring of forest ecosystems through AI-based tools, enabling continuous observation of forest areas and the prediction of multiple natural hazards, including droughts, wildfires and windstorms.

ARCA is built on a modular architecture centered on scientific workflows, which orchestrate multiple-type data ingestion, processing, analysis and AI model execution in a consistent and reproducible manner. The platform integrates big data technologies, workflow management systems and AI components, allowing complex processing chains to be automated while ensuring full traceability of data provenance, computational steps and model configurations. This approach supports FAIR principles and promotes the reuse of data and workflows across different applications and computing environments.

A key strength of ARCA lies in its ability to shield users from much of the underlying technical complexity, such as heterogeneous computing resources, access constraints and large data volumes, while still enabling scalable AI-driven analyses. As a result, researchers and practitioners can focus on scientific and operational questions related to climate impacts and hazard prevention rather than on low-level technical orchestration. In this contribution, we present the overall ARCA architecture together with selected use cases, illustrating how workflow-based approaches can effectively support scalable, transparent and reproducible ESS research in a multinational and federated context like the Adriatic–Ionian region.

How to cite: Mirto, M., De Carlo, M., Alvi, S., Danhash, S., Aloisio, A., and Nassisi, P.: ARCA: A Scalable and Reproducible AI-Driven Workflow Platform for Climate Change and Natural Hazard Applications, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17077, 2026.

EGU26-17974 | Orals | ESSI2.7

Multi-target process dispatch on the European Digital Twin of the Ocean  

stella valentina Paronuzzi ticco, Quentin Gaudel, Alain Arnaud, Jerome Gasperi, Mathis Bertin, and Victor Gaubin

The EDITO platform serves as the foundational framework for building the European Digital Twin of the Ocean. It seamlessly integrates oceanographic data and computational processes (non-interactive remote functions that take input and produce output) on a single platform that relies on both cloud and HPC (EuroHPC) resources. In this context, EDITO already provides many processes, such as OceanBench model evaluation and the ML-based GLONET 10-day forecast. To make scientists' work easier, we have developed a new way of generating processes on EDITO. We will use OceanBench evaluation as an example of a process that can be dispatched by the user on multiple targets, seamlessly handling the technical complexity of dealing with different hardware (cloud CPUs/GPUs, HPC, etc.). In our presentation we will explain how EDITO contributors will benefit from this new method of generating processes.   

How to cite: Paronuzzi ticco, S. V., Gaudel, Q., Arnaud, A., Gasperi, J., Bertin, M., and Gaubin, V.: Multi-target process dispatch on the European Digital Twin of the Ocean , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17974, 2026.

EGU26-18841 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI2.7

Efficient large-scale data structuring to support Earth System Science analytics workflows 

Donatello Elia, Gabriele Tramonte, Cosimo Palazzo, Valentina Scardigno, and Paola Nassisi

The amount of data produced by Earth System Model (ESM) is continuously growing, driven by their higher resolution and complexity. Approaches for efficient data access, management, and analysis are, thus, needed now more than ever to tackle the challenges related to these large volumes. Moreover, data generated by ESM simulations could be organized in a way that is not the most effective for data analytics, slowing down scientists’ productivity. In this context, novel data formats and proper chunking strategies can significantly speed up access and processing of Earth system data and, in turn, the whole analysis workflow. 

In the scope of ESiWACE3 - Centre of Excellence in Simulation of Weather and Climate in Europe - we experimented the impact of different data formats and chunking configurations on high-performance data analytics operations/workflows. In particular, we evaluated performance of the well-known NetCDF format and the more recent cloud-native Zarr format, which is being increasingly used in Earth Science data analytics workflows and machine learning applications. Results show that the use of a proper data format and structure can noticeably reduce the time required for executing these analytics workflows, provided the structure is carefully tuned (e.g., chunking).

The work presents the main outcomes of such evaluation and how we are exploiting this knowledge to enhance Earth system data management workflows. In particular, the results achieved have contributed to enabling a more efficient access, delivery and analysis of large-scale data in CMCC’s tools and services, which are involved in different initiatives, including the ICSC - National Centre on High Performance Computing, Big Data and Quantum Computing.

How to cite: Elia, D., Tramonte, G., Palazzo, C., Scardigno, V., and Nassisi, P.: Efficient large-scale data structuring to support Earth System Science analytics workflows, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18841, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18841, 2026.

EGU26-19451 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI2.7

Making Kilometer-Scale Earth System Model (ESM) simulations usable: A workflow approach from European Eddy RIch ESMs (EERIE) project. 

Chathurika Wickramage, Fabian Wachsmann, Jürgen Kröger, Rohith Ghosh, and Matthias Aengenheyster

Kilometer-scale global climate simulations are now generating petabytes of output at such a rapid pace that data production is surpassing data standardization. Central ESM infrastructures have traditionally followed a “data warehouse” approach: extensive preprocessing, quality control, and formatting are performed before users receive self-describing, FAIR-aligned files. While this delivers highly standardized and interoperable products, it also creates a growing bottleneck, computationally and organizationally, so that routine actions like checking variables, extracting a region and time slice, or comparing experiments can become slow, and hard to reproduce in practice. The EERIE project (https://eerie-project.eu/about/) is a clear example: its eddy-rich Earth System Models generate detailed and valuable output, but at a scale and pace that overwhelms traditional file-by-file workflows and delays usable access.

At DKRZ, we address this with an end-to-end workflow that transforms raw EERIE model output into analysis-ready datasets (ARD) that are easy to discover, subset, and analyze without requiring users to copy or download terabytes of files. The central element of this workflow is to create virtual Zarr datasets of the raw model output received from the modeling groups, by extracting chunk information and storing them in the kerchunk format with VirtualiZarr (https://virtualizarr.readthedocs.io/en/stable/index.html). These native-grid virtual datasets are published through both an intake catalog (https://github.com/eerie-project/intake_catalogues) and a STAC (SpatioTemporal Asset Catalog; https://discover.dkrz.de/external/stac2.cloud.dkrz.de/fastapi/collections/eerie?.language=en) interface, enabling users to examine variables, time period, regions etc., and retrieve only the subset they need while the bulk remains in place. Alongside native model-grid resolution, the data is also provided on a common ¼ degree regular grid to facilitate inter-model comparison.  Finally, we employ widely used standards and publish standardized products through established climate-data services (ESGF; https://esgf-metagrid.cloud.dkrz.de/search and WDCC; https://www.wdc-climate.de/ui/project?acronym=EERIE). We also aim to publish the processing scripts used throughout the pipeline, enabling others to build on the lessons learned from the EERIE approach.

How to cite: Wickramage, C., Wachsmann, F., Kröger, J., Ghosh, R., and Aengenheyster, M.: Making Kilometer-Scale Earth System Model (ESM) simulations usable: A workflow approach from European Eddy RIch ESMs (EERIE) project., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19451, 2026.

EGU26-20269 | Posters on site | ESSI2.7

Federated AI-Cubes: Towards Democratizing Big Earth Datacube Analytics 

Peter Baumann, Dimitar Misev, Bang Pham Huu, and Vlad Merticariu

Datacubes are an acknowledged cornerstone for analysis-ready Big Earth Data as they allow more intuitive, powerful services than zillions of "scenes". By abstracting from technical pains they offer two main advantages: for users, it gets more convenient; servers can dynamically optimize, orchestrate, and distribute processing.
We propose a combination of datacube service enhancements which we consider critical for making data exploitation more open to non-experts and more powerful, summarized as "Federated AI-Cubes": 

  • Location-transparent federation allows users and tools to perceive all datacube assets as a single dataspace, making distributed data fusion a commodity. Instrumental for this is automatic data homogenization performed at import and at query time, based on the open Coverage standards.
  • High-level datacube query languages, such as SQL/MDA and ISO/OGC WCPS, simplify analysis and open up data exploitation to non-programmers. Server-side optimization can automatically generate the individually best distributed workflow for every incoming query. At the same time, queries document workflows without low-level technical garbage, making them reproducible. 
  • The seamless integration of AI into datacube analytics plus AI-assisted query writing open up new opportunities for zero-coding exploitation. By not hardwiring a particular model a platform for easy-to-use model sharing emerges. Model Fencing, a new research direction, aims at enabling the server to estimate accuracy of ML model inference embedded in datacube queries. 
  • Standards-based interoperability allows users to remain in the comfort zone of their well-known clients, from map browsing over QGIS and ArcGIS up to openEO, R, and python frontends.
  • Cloud/edge integration opens up opportunities for seamless federation of data centers with moving data sources, such as satellites, including flexible onboard processing.

In summary, these capabilities together have potential for empowering non-experts and making experts more productive, ultimately democratizing Big Earth Data exploitation and widening Open Science.
In our talk, we discuss these techniques based on their implementation in the rasdaman Array DBMS, the pioneer datacube engine, which is operational on multi-Petabyte global assets contributed by research centers in Europe, USA, and Asia. We present challenges and results, supported by live demos many of which are public. Additionally, being editor of the OGC and ISO coverage standards suite, we provide an update on recent progress and future developments.
This research is being co-funded by the European Commission through EFRE projects FAIRgeo and SkyFed.

How to cite: Baumann, P., Misev, D., Pham Huu, B., and Merticariu, V.: Federated AI-Cubes: Towards Democratizing Big Earth Datacube Analytics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20269, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20269, 2026.

EGU26-21194 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI2.7

PHENOMENA: a modular HPC model to facilitate automatic high-resolution greenhouse gas emission monitoring 

Carmen Piñero-Megías, Laura Herrero, Artur Viñas, Johanna Gehlen, Luca Rizza, Ivan Lombardich, Oliver Legarreta, Òscar Collado, Paula Camps, Aina Gaya-Àvila, Marc Guevara, Paula Castesana, and Carles Tena

This work presents the sPanisH EmissioN mOnitoring systeM for grEeNhouse gAses (PHENOMENA), a python-based, open-source, multiscale emission model that computes high resolution (up to 1km2 and daily) and low latency greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for Spain. The system uses a bottom-up approach, based on emission factors and activity data, and consists of four different modules: First, the downloading module retrieves low latency activity data from multiple sources, including APIs, open data repositories, websites, and private providers, with error handling and automatic retrials to minimize manual intervention. Next, the preprocessing module standardizes the data and applies quality-control checks. The activity data is then combined with emission factors in the calculation module, which covers 11 emission sectors. Finally, the resulting emissions are post-processed to meet the requirements of an open web platform where the results are displayed.

PHENOMENA is based on the OOP paradigm and designed to run on High Performance Computing (HPC) infrastructures. While each one of the emission sectors can run in parallel using MPI strategies, it is still not feasible to run all of them at the same time or download all the activity data at once, as different data providers have different temporal availability. Thanks to the modularity of the system, it can be split into different HPC jobs to handle the heterogeneous data frequencies, increase robustness through automatic retrials, run different instances at the same time and automatize monthly uploads to the web portal, using the Autosubmit workflow manager.

The resulting product is a web app which provides daily 1 km x 1 km gridded emission maps and emission totals aggregated per region and sector. The system's latency is determined by the availability of the activity data from external providers, ranging from daily updates to delays of up to four months.

PHENOMENA allows monitoring low-latency GHG emissions for Spain at high temporal and spatial resolution, providing information in an accessible way to support national to local policymakers. The system is scalable, robust against failures, and easily adaptable to new data providers, regions and emission sectors.

How to cite: Piñero-Megías, C., Herrero, L., Viñas, A., Gehlen, J., Rizza, L., Lombardich, I., Legarreta, O., Collado, Ò., Camps, P., Gaya-Àvila, A., Guevara, M., Castesana, P., and Tena, C.: PHENOMENA: a modular HPC model to facilitate automatic high-resolution greenhouse gas emission monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21194, 2026.

The current era of Earth Observation (EO) is marked by an unprecedented increase in data volume and a growing number of satellite missions, driving a transition from dedicated processing infrastructure to cloud-native, distributed, and scalable orchestration. As Earth System Science, industry, and society increasingly rely on near-real-time EO data, efficient processing and workflow management have become critical components of modern ground segments. This presentation introduces an operational framework designed to meet the challenges of large-scale EO data processing. Examples from the Copernicus Sentinel programme and ESA’s Earth Explorer missions illustrate the framework’s scalable cloud deployment and operational performance. Common challenges - such as handling geospatial data formats, managing ground-segment anomalies, ensuring cybersecurity, providing standardized service interfaces, and leveraging public-cloud infrastructure - are addressed through a unified workflow approach. Operational experience from Copernicus payload data ground segment services, including monitoring via dashboards and control procedures, serves as a model for scientific missions and initiatives adopting these proven concepts. Scalability has emerged as a key feature, enabling efficient data transfers for the Copernicus Long-Term Archive, data access for Copernicus services, and higher-level processing workflows for scientific missions like BIOMASS. These orchestration strategies optimize resource use and energy efficiency for on-demand processing. The generic processing concepts demonstrated in the Copernicus and Earth Explorer programmes offer inspiration for new applications within the Earth System Science community, including hybrid approaches that integrate observations and simulation data.

How to cite: Hofmeister, R.:  A unified framework for large-scale, operational data processing in Earth Observation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21804, 2026.

EGU26-21909 | ECS | Orals | ESSI2.7

Workflow Modernization for Open and Scalable Access to Operational NWP Data 

Nina Burgdorfer, Christian Kanesan, Victoria Cherkas, Noemi Nellen, Carlos Osuna, Katrin Ehlert, and Oliver Fuhrer

Operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) workflows are increasingly challenged by rapidly growing data volumes, expanding product diversity, and the need for timely and scalable access to model data. At the same time, modern Earth system services are evolving toward open data policies that require not only standardized access to model output for internal and external users, but also flexible mechanisms to extract and process relevant information in a FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) manner. In this context, MeteoSwiss, in collaboration with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), is developing a modernized data workflow to improve access to NWP model data for internal and external downstream users. 

The redesigned workflow shifts from a product-centric dissemination model toward a scalable data-as-a-service approach. Rather than relying on the generation and distribution of numerous predefined products, recent ICON forecast output is organized in the Field Database (FDB) and exposed through Polytope, which provides semantic data access and feature extraction capabilities. The workflow automates the ingestion, indexing, access control, and on-demand extraction of forecast fields, and integrates these steps into existing HPC-based production workflows and downstream processing pipelines. By replacing file-based product generation with database-backed access, the workflow enables deterministic data extraction, explicit provenance tracking, and consistent versioning of datasets, so that identical data requests can be reproduced reliably across time and environments. We present recent developments in Earthkit and Polytope that, for the first time, enable such automated workflows on the icosahedral grids used by ICON. Standardized interfaces and modern processing tools from the Earthkit Python ecosystem enable downstream users and applications to retrieve and process tailored subsets of NWP data on demand. 

Our use of open-source, community-developed software (FDB, Polytope, Earthkit) as core workflow components illustrates how ECMWF technologies can be integrated into national weather service environments. Operational experience gained in this context contributes to improving the maturity and usability of these tools and supports their broader adoption by other ECMWF Member States, facilitating the transfer of FAIR, workflow-based data access concepts across the weather and climate community. 

How to cite: Burgdorfer, N., Kanesan, C., Cherkas, V., Nellen, N., Osuna, C., Ehlert, K., and Fuhrer, O.: Workflow Modernization for Open and Scalable Access to Operational NWP Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21909, 2026.

EGU26-22151 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI2.7

Earthscope Seafloor Geodesy Tools 

Franklyn Dunbar, Mike Gottlieb, Rachel Akie, and David Mencin

Earth System Science increasingly depends on scalable, reproducible computational workflows to manage complex data processing across heterogeneous environments and cloud infrastructure. In seafloor geodesy — a domain where high-resolution geodetic time series and acoustic ranging techniques are essential for understanding submarine tectonic and deformation processes — the need for robust, automated tooling is acute. We present Earthscope Seafloor Geodesy Tools, an open-source Python library developed by Earthscope consortium that supports preprocessing and GNSS-A processing workflows for seafloor geodesy data collected via autonomous wave glider platforms.
Earthscope Seafloor Geodesy Tools, provides modular utilities to translate, organize, validate, and prepare raw observational data for integration with GNSS-A positional solver inversion software (e.g., GARPOS), enabling reproducible, data pipelines within research and operational contexts. By encapsulating domain-specific processing steps into composable components, Earthscope Seafloor Geodesy Tools, enables workflow orchestration and large scale data processing across environments (i.e. local vs remote) and reproducibility of results.

How to cite: Dunbar, F., Gottlieb, M., Akie, R., and Mencin, D.: Earthscope Seafloor Geodesy Tools, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22151, 2026.

EGU26-1564 | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

Managing your drone data through the data life cycle: RDA guidelines for FAIR and responsible UAV Use 

Alice Fremand, Jens Klump, Sarah Manthorpe, Mari Whitelaw, France Gerard, Wendy Garland, Charles George, and Thabo Semong

The use of Remotely Piloted Aerial Systems (RPAS), also referenced as Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and more generally as drones, is increasingly prevalent across various scientific disciplines, enabling the collection of large volumes of data for diverse research applications. These technologies are revolutionising data collection by offering higher temporal and spatial resolutions and enabling data collection in hazardous and inaccessible areas. However, the volume of data generated and the absence of standardised workflows to document operations and data processing often complicate data sharing and publication. 

As part of the Research Data Alliance (RDA) Small Uncrewed Aircraft and Autonomous Platforms Data Working Group, we have developed guidelines on how best to improve the Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability and Reusability (FAIR, Wilkinson et al. 2016) of these data and processing workflows. The working group compiled use cases showcasing RPAS applications across various research disciplines, documenting best practices and identifying gaps and challenges researchers have while handling their RPAS-derived data. We paid specific attention to legal, privacy and ethical considerations. Drawing on these insights, the group has now developed guidelines and recommendations to improve RPAS data management throughout the research life cycle, from mission planning to data publication and archiving, linking to existing resources and examples from the scientific community.

How to cite: Fremand, A., Klump, J., Manthorpe, S., Whitelaw, M., Gerard, F., Garland, W., George, C., and Semong, T.: Managing your drone data through the data life cycle: RDA guidelines for FAIR and responsible UAV Use, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1564, 2026.

EGU26-3136 | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

Data Access Made Easy: flexible, on the fly data standardization and processing 

Mathias Bavay, Patrick Leibersperger, and Øystein Godøy

Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) deployed in the context of research projects provide very valuable point data thanks to the flexibility they offer in term of measured meteorological parameters and setup. However this flexibility is a challenge in terms of metadata and data management. Traditional approaches based on networks of standard stations struggle to accommodate these needs, leading to wasted data periods because of difficult data reuse, low reactivity in identifying potential measurement problems, and lack of metadata to document what happened.

The Data Access Made Easy (DAME) effort is our answer to these challenges. At its core, it relies on the mature and flexible open source MeteoIO meteorological pre-processing library. Originally developed for the needs of numerical models consuming meteorological data it has expanded as a data standardization engine for the Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). For each AWS, a single configuration file describes how to read and parse the data, defines a mapping between the available fields and a set of standardized names and provides relevant Attribute Conventions Dataset Discovery (ACDD) metadata fields. Low level data editing is also available, such as excluding a given sensor, swapping sensors or merging data from another AWS, for any given time period. Moreover an arbitrary number of filters can be applied on each meteorological parameter, restricted to specific time periods if required. This allows to describe the whole history of an AWS within a single configuration file and to deliver a single, consistent, standardized output file possibly spanning many years, many input data files and many changes both in format and available sensors.

Through the EU project Arctic Passion, a web interface has been developed that allows data owners to manage the configuration files for their stations, refresh their data at regular intervals, inspect the data QA log files, receive notification emails and allow on-demand data generation. The same interface allows other users to request data on-demand for any time period.

How to cite: Bavay, M., Leibersperger, P., and Godøy, Ø.: Data Access Made Easy: flexible, on the fly data standardization and processing, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3136, 2026.

In recent years, significant progress has been made in digitizing natural history collections using increasingly industrialized workflows involving conveyor belts, digital camera setups, robotics and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Also, new technologies became available to analyse the specimens. Analysis of both biodiversity and geodiversity samples has shifted from destructive analysis to non-destructive, high-resolution, and automated techniques accelerating the creation of new information.However, the resulting data is often fragmented across systems and repositories. Efforts to reconnect these data to the original specimen or derived samples frequently fail because identifiers were missing at the time of analysis, are not globally unique, change over time, or are referenced incorrectly. These issues can be solved by maintaining a digital object on the internet that is created at the time of collecting the sample, which contains contextual information and (links to) its derived data as this becomes available. This is called a Digital Specimen and different entities(human or machine) who create an analysis can add information to the digital object. A one-to-one relationship between the physical sample preserved as a specimen can be kept by giving the physical objecta persistent identifier like an IGSN, International Generic Sample Number. The digital object also gets a persistent identifier: a Digital Specimen identifier in the form of a FAIR Digital Object compliant DOI (Digital Object Identifier).

The Digital Specimen is a citable, machine-actionable proxy for physical specimens that is FAIR by design (FAIR Digital Object compliant) and has a Persistent Identifier (PID) in the form of a DOI to create a self-contained unit of knowledge. This design enables seamless linkage to derived data—such as chemical analysis, digital media, and publications. To implement this, DiSSCo (Distributed System of Scientific Collections) developed the open Digital Specimen (openDS) specification. By integrating community standards like Darwin Core with W3C PROV-O and JSON-LD, openDS provides a common semantic language for global interoperability.

DiSSCo is currently in transition from its project phase into becoming an operational European Research infrastructure. It has already created the first millions of FDO-compliant Digital Specimens and has developed infrastructure to allow the annotation of these digital objects with new data or improvements, either by humans or machines. AI fueled Machine Annotation Services (MAS) developed by third parties can operate in the infrastructure for analysis of the data or knowledge extraction from specimen images. 

In the presentation we will show how the FDO design supports advanced capabilities like multiple redirect to different digital representations for either human or machine, versioning and provenance to allow mutable objects, tooltips in journal systems that show contextual information about a referred sample in a publication through the PID record, and machine actionable metadata that supports machines to act on the data.

How to cite: Addink, W. and Islam, S.: DiSSCo's Vision Applied: (Re-)connecting Fragmented Specimen Data through FAIR Digital Objects, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3293, 2026.

EGU26-4891 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

A FAIR Protocol for Hybrid Models and Data in Hydrology 

Akash Koppa, Son Pham-Ba, Felix Bauer, Olivier Bonte, Oscar Baez-Villanueva, Reda El Ghawi, Alexander Winkler, Diego G. Miralles, Fabrizio Fenicia, Charlotte Gisèle Weil, and Sara Bonetti

Hybrid modeling, which integrates physics-based and machine learning (ML) components, is a growing research area in hydrology and the broader Earth Science community. By combining the interpretability of process-based models with the predictive power of data-driven algorithms, these hybrid architectures offer improved accuracy and representation of complex environmental processes. However, their adoption is currently constrained by significant challenges regarding FAIR principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) . Unlike traditional physics-based models, the reusability of hybrid systems is frequently hindered by the dynamic nature of ML components, which are inextricably linked to specific training datasets and hyperparameter configurations. Furthermore, existing data data and model repositories are rarely designed to host such models.

To address these systemic barriers, we collaboratively designed and implemented a standardized FAIR protocol specifically tailored for hydrological hybrid models. This framework, termed as FRAME, consists of three critical components: (a) a set of interoperability coding standards for the physics and ML modules, (b) a unified metadata specification that captures the disparate requirements of both physics-based parameters and ML architectures, and (c) a specialized online repository designed for the persistent hosting and sharing of integrated hybrid assets. To facilitate user adoption, we developed an associated command line interface (CLI) for automated retrieval and setup of these models. To ensure the long-term impact and scalability of this protocol, we are actively soliciting participation from the global hydrologic modeling community. By establishing a community-driven standard, this protocol aims to provide a robust foundation for the transparent, reproducible, and collaborative advancement of hybrid modeling in hydrology.

How to cite: Koppa, A., Pham-Ba, S., Bauer, F., Bonte, O., Baez-Villanueva, O., El Ghawi, R., Winkler, A., G. Miralles, D., Fenicia, F., Gisèle Weil, C., and Bonetti, S.: A FAIR Protocol for Hybrid Models and Data in Hydrology, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4891, 2026.

EGU26-5023 | Orals | ESSI3.2

Using “Data Agreements” in universities to clarify research data rights of use 

María Piquer-Rodríguez, Esther Asef, Sophia Reitzug, and Andreas Hübner

The Earth, Space, and Environmental Sciences are research disciplines in which a large amount of research data is generated and in which the principles of FAIR and open data are now receiving considerable attention.

Both FAIR and open data aim to enable and enhance the reusability of data, but before research data can be made available for broad reuse, it is essential to clarify rights and permissions: who is authorized to share the data and with whom, who may publish it, how credit for data-related work will be attributed, and what arrangements apply if a researcher transfers to another institution.

Concrete regulation of usage rights for research data continues to pose major challenges for researchers and research institutions alike. There are legal uncertainties due to room for interpretation in the general legal requirements, and in many cases, there are no systematised workflows for defining usage rights. To close this gap, a working group at the Department of Earth Sciences at Freie Universität Berlin has developed and implemented a ‘Data Agreement’ that provides clarity on the exercise of usage rights to research data within the group (for students and researchers) and also helps to operationalise FAIR and CARE principles in everyday research practice.

The ‘Data Agreements’ are used as an opportunity to discuss expectations regarding data management and to define and agree on binding rights of use for research data with each new member of the group or student´s thesis projects. We present the key aspects of the ‘Data Agreements’ and report on practical experiences with their use. We show how it not only facilitates clear agreements and prevent subsequent disagreements. In addition to legal aspects, practical aspects such as backup strategies or storage locations can also be specified within this process and thus improve the data management practice within the group.

The ‘Data Agreements’ [1] were developed in the working group together with the Research Data Management team and the university's legal office and are available under CC0 for reuse in other research groups or institutions. While the agreements were developed within a university context and relate to German academic practice and law, they may be reused or serve as templates for other research institutions, in other national or international contexts, and over a wide variety of Earth, Space, and Environmental Sciences disciplines and beyond.

[1] http://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-46356

How to cite: Piquer-Rodríguez, M., Asef, E., Reitzug, S., and Hübner, A.: Using “Data Agreements” in universities to clarify research data rights of use, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5023, 2026.

AQUARIUS is an ongoing Horizon Europe funded project. An impressive range of 57 research infrastructure services is made available by Transnational Access (TA) Calls to include research vessels, mobile marine observation platforms, fixed marine facilities, experimental research facilities, river & basin supersites, aircraft, drones, satellite services, and sophisticated data infrastructures.

As a result of the TA projects, many new data sets in a large variety of data types are being collected by TA teams, using and combining multiple and different observation installations. A major aim of AQUARIUS is supporting the EU Mission to Restore our Ocean and waters by 2030, and other marine initiatives, including contributing to the European Digital Twin of the Ocean and the UN Decade for Ocean Sciences.

There is a strong effort in AQUARIUS to get the maximum return of investment from the TA activities. An open data policy has been adopted, implemented with a dedicated Data Management approach, to ensure that all gathered metadata and data are managed in line with the FAIR principles. They should become part of the repositories managed and operated by leading European data management infrastructures, such as SeaDataNet, EurOBIS, ELIXIR-ENA, ICOS-Ocean, and Copernicus INSTAC, for quality assurance, long term stewardship, and wide access and use. These infrastructures in turn are feeding into EMODnet, Copernicus Marine, Blue-Cloud (EOSC), Digital Twin of the Ocean (DTO) developments, and globally to e.g. GEOSS, and the UN-IOC Ocean Decade programme.

To achieve a maximum result, the TA scientific teams are being supported by data centres, experienced in marine data management, and well connected to the European data management infrastructures. Most of them are National Oceanographic Data Centres (NODCs). They provide training and coach the TA teams during the AQUARIUS data management flow scheme. This includes steps from planning to training to deployment to publishing, and a number of instruments. One of those is the AQUARIUS TA Data Summary Log App which is used by PIs of TA projects to keep an overview and index of the data collection events. It produces a list for the data centres to know what data to expect from where and who and as a checklist for the next steps. The AQUARIUS TA Data Summary Log contains only metadata and no data. As follow-up, the TA teams and assigned data centres will work on elaborating the collected data to prevailing standards and inclusion in the European repositories. That progress is made visible through the AQUARIUS Dataflow Dashboard (ADD), integrated in the AQUARIUS website. It follows the progress from planning stage through to publishing of results for each awarded TA project. The ultimate goal is to give discovery and public access to research data sets as collected and processed and data products as generated by the TA research teams as part of the AQUARIUS TA projects.

The presentation will provide more background information on the AQUARIUS project and will highlight more details about the data management approach.

How to cite: Ni Chonghaile, B., Schaap, D., and Fitzgerald, A.: AQUARIUS, Integrating Research Infrastructures, Connecting Scientists, and Enabling Transnational Access for Healthy and Sustainable Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5326, 2026.

SeaDataNet is a major pan-European infrastructure for managing and providing access to marine data sets, acquired by European organisations from research cruises and other observational activities in European coastal marine waters, regional seas and the global ocean. Founding partners are National Oceanographic Data Centres (NODCs), and major marine research institutes. The SeaDataNet network gradually expanded its network of data centres and infrastructure, during a series of dedicated EU RTD projects, and by engaging as core data management infrastructure and network in leading European Commission initiatives such as the European Marine Observation and Data network (EMODnet), Copernicus Marine Service (CMS), and the European Open Science Cloud (EOSC).

SeaDataNet develops, governs and promotes common standards, vocabularies, software tools, and services for marine data management, which are widely adopted. A core service is the CDI data discovery and access service which provides online unified discovery and access to vast resources of data sets, managed by 115+ connected SeaDataNet data centres from 34 countries around European seas, both from research and monitoring organisations. Currently, it gives access to more than 3 Million data sets, originating from 1000+ organisations in Europe, covering physical, geological, chemical, biological and geophysical data, acquired in European waters and global oceans. Standard metadata and data formats are used, supported by an ever-increasing set of controlled vocabularies, resulting in rich and highly FAIR metadata and data sets. SeaDataNet provides core services in EMODnet Chemistry, Bathymetry, and Physics for bringing together and harmonizing large amounts of marine data sets, which are used by EMODnet groups for generating thematic data products.

EMODnet Bathymetry is active since 2008 and maintains a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) for the European seas. This is published every 2 years, each time extending coverage, and improving quality and precision. The DTMs are produced from surveys and aggregated data sets that are referenced with metadata via the SeaDataNet Catalogue services. Bathymetric survey data sets are gathered and populated by national hydrographic services, marine research institutes, and companies in the SeaDataNet CDI Data Discovery & Access service. Currently, this amounts to more than 45.000 datasets from 78 data providers. A major selection of these datasets has been used for preparing the 2024 release of the EMODnet DTM for all European waters and Caribbean, which has been published on the EMODnet portal. Currently, work is ongoing for a new 2026 version. 

The EMODnet DTM has a grid resolution of 1/16 * 1/16 arc minutes (circa 115 * 115 m), covering all European seas. It is based upon circa 22.000+ in situ datasets. It can be downloaded in tiles and viewed as map layers in the EMODnet portal. The maps are derived from EMODnet Bathymetry OGC WMS, WMTS, and WFS services. The EMODnet Bathymetry products are very popular and in 2024 – 2025 more than 100.000 EMODnet DTM files were downloaded, and more than 60 million OGC service requests were registered over the 2 years. EMODnet Bathymetry is also managing the European contribution to the international Seabed 2030 project.

How to cite: Schaap, D. M. A., Scory, S., Piel, S., and Schmitt, T.: SeaDataNet, pan-European infrastructure for marine and ocean data management and major pillar under EMODnet Bathymetry for generating the best Digital Bathymetry for European Seas   , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5581, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5581, 2026.

EGU26-5601 | ECS | Orals | ESSI3.2

Providing analysis-ready campaign data via the InterPlanetary File System 

Lukas Kluft and Tobias Kölling

During field campaigns, timely data sharing across distributed teams is essential, yet access to central repositories is often constrained by limited bandwidth. As a result, preliminary datasets are frequently exchanged offline, which commonly leads to confusion about dataset versions once post-campaign releases occur.

We present a proof-of-concept to campaign data dissemination based on content-addressable storage. During the ORCESTRA campaign, observations were converted into analysis-ready Zarr stores and published via the InterPlanetary File System (IPFS). By accessing data through immutable content identifiers (CIDs), teams can use datasets offline in the field while ensuring that the exact same, verifiable data objects remain accessible after the campaign.

To improve discoverability and usability, we developed the ORCESTRA Data Browser, which dynamically generates dataset landing pages by fetching metadata client-side directly from IPFS. Together, these components demonstrate how decentralized, content-addressed data access can support version clarity, reproducibility, and robust data sharing for field campaigns and beyond.

How to cite: Kluft, L. and Kölling, T.: Providing analysis-ready campaign data via the InterPlanetary File System, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5601, 2026.

EGU26-5819 | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

Making FAIRness Visible: Practical FAIR Assessment for Earth System Science Data 

Heinrich Widmann, Andrea Lammert, Eileen Hertwig, Beate Krüss, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, and Hannes Thiemann

The FAIR-by-design approach pursued by most repositories and data services today requires significant and sustained effort in the curation and quality assurance of both data and metadata. Beyond providing research data that complies with the FAIR principles, it is essential that the level of FAIRness is transparently apparent to users from the metadata prior to data access and download. FAIRness indicators benefit both data providers and reusers by rewarding high-quality curation and supporting informed data selection in  complex, data-intensive Earth System Science (ESS) workflows.

In practice, making FAIRness levels visible requires repository data managers to perform  FAIR evaluation, either through manual assessment or by using established FAIR assessment tools. At the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) the fully automated F-UJI tool is applied in operational practice to assess and expose FAIRness levels across large collections of climate data.

F-UJI is a web based service that programmatically assess FAIRness of research data objects at the dataset level based on the FAIRsFAIR Data Object Assessment Metrics. Its   automated and machine-aided analytics are well suited for the large amounts of datasets archived in WDCC and reflect established repository practices such as the assignment of DataCite DOIs and the provision of rich, standardised metadata. At the same time, automated assessment relies on clearly machine-assessable criteria, and thus can not fully capture FAIR aspects that require human interpretation, such as reuse relevance or domain-specific semantics. In addition, FAIRness results depend on the machine-detectability of persistent identifiers resolving directly to datasets, which are not always available at higher levels of data collection hierarchies.

Based on our operational experience, we compare F-UJI results with other FAIR assessment approaches, building on findings from a previous comparative study evaluating FAIR assessment methods for WDCC datasets (Peters-von Gehlen et al., 2022). This comparison shows that automated, manual, and hybrid FAIR evaluation approaches each have distinct strengths: automated methods focus on standardised, machine-actionable criteria, while manual assessments capture contextual aspects relevant for data reuse; hybrid approaches combine these advantages and mitigate the limitations of purely automated or manual methods.

This poster shares practical experiences from conducting operational FAIRness assessment at a climate data repository and discusses benefits, limitations, and best practices of automated and hybrid FAIR evaluation approaches in Earth System Science.

How to cite: Widmann, H., Lammert, A., Hertwig, E., Krüss, B., Peters-von Gehlen, K., and Thiemann, H.: Making FAIRness Visible: Practical FAIR Assessment for Earth System Science Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5819, 2026.

EGU26-6870 | ECS | Orals | ESSI3.2

FAIRness and Openness Commitments as a catalyst for cultural change in research organisations 

Daniel Nüst, Anne Sennhenn, Jörg Seegert, Andreas Hübner, Khabat Vahabi, Stephan Hachinger, Markus Möller, Carsten Hoffmann, Lars Bernard, James M. Anderson, Sarah Fischer, Markus Reichstein, Mélanie Weynants, Carsten Keßler, Katharina Koch, Klaus-Peter Wenz, Nicole van Dam, and Babette Regierer

Many research communities and disciplines undergo a transformation towards promoting, facilitating, and recognising FAIRness (Wilkinson et al., 2016; https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2016.18) and Openness in Research Data Management (RDM) practices. These transformations require buy-in from stakeholders at multiple levels and warrant many conversations between all roles to be sustainable. One approach to facilitate  and document the requested stakeholders’ ownership is the use of so-called commitments, where public endorsements by individuals or organisations serve as a driver to normalize desirable practices and offerings. Commitments can establish a community norm, whose practices may eventually turn into standards, requirements and guarantees.

The Earth System Sciences (ESS) consortium of the German Research Data Infrastructure (NFDI) programme, NFDI4Earth (https://nfdi4earth.de/), and the NFDI consortium for the agrosystems research community, FAIRagro (https://fairagro.net), take deliberate steps to initialize cultural change in the form of commitments. The NFDI4Earth and FAIRagro FAIRness and Openness Commitments (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10123880, published in September 2024; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14925202 from February 2025) help to start conversations about changing the way that research data is collected, created, published, used, and recognised and request institutions to engage in the implementation and operation of FAIR RDM and related services. The signature of members and representatives of the respective communities signals agreement with the goals and values of the Commitments and with the consortias’ missions, products, and services. The signatories build a community of practice that takes into account diverse expertises, roles, and user groups for a sustainable shift towards more and diversified FAIR research outputs, and increasing adoption of Open Science and Open Research principles and practices.

The Commitments consist of two matching main statements and twelve supporting statements. The main statements are: (1) We commit to advance FAIRness and Openness in Earth System Science/Agricultural Sciences and beyond. (2) We value data infrastructures and data experts. The supporting statements concretise the engagement and give starting points for the implementation. Changes in the supporting statements enabled FAIRagro to incorporate community-specific aspects in its adoption of the NFDI4Earth Commitment. The NFDI4Earth and FAIRagro commitments have 8 and 7 institutional signatories, respectively, and 70 and 54 group or individual signatories, correspondingly (https://nfdi4earth.de/commitment, https://fairagro.net/en/commitment/).

In this work, we present the two Commitments and recap the process for their creation (cf. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14456), their differences, and lessons learned. We report on the interactions sparked by the Commitments with community stakeholders. We focus on the role of organisations and groups, because they are crucial to implement cultural change: they can set requirements, provide incentives for their members, and match these with supporting services and infrastructures. Specifically, we report from an exchange of experiences between representatives of institutional and group signatories from a workshop that connected institutions, created a space for open exchange, and laid a foundation for generalisable approaches.

How to cite: Nüst, D., Sennhenn, A., Seegert, J., Hübner, A., Vahabi, K., Hachinger, S., Möller, M., Hoffmann, C., Bernard, L., Anderson, J. M., Fischer, S., Reichstein, M., Weynants, M., Keßler, C., Koch, K., Wenz, K.-P., van Dam, N., and Regierer, B.: FAIRness and Openness Commitments as a catalyst for cultural change in research organisations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6870, 2026.

EGU26-7107 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

Automated workflows for ever-growing, analysis-ready datasets at the Barbados Cloud Observatory 

Rowan Orlijan-Rhyne, Lukas Kluft, and Tobias Kölling

The Barbados Cloud Observatory (BCO), in continuous operation by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, offers an extensive record of clouds in the trade wind region since its birth in 2010. In the form of public, analysis-ready zarr stores processed with automated workflows, the record can be studied at time scales from seconds to years and serves to drive theoretical and model advancements. As an important geoscientific research asset, data from the BCO is trustable, reproducible, and versioned, but also easily available.

BCO data processing employs Apache Airflow’s automated workflows which append to zarr stores whenever new data arrives. Management of dynamic and growing datasets—as opposed to static (e.g. campaign) datasets—permits many versions, all of which are accurate and can be automatically regenerated. In shepherding the data, we choose our own unique keys, including dataset version numbering, which make up an intake catalog. We also implement quality control of dataset metadata and encodings with in-house tools.

By allowing for rolling processing of the data, often at daily intervals, our products can be easily probed for scientific, technical, and other use. For instance, we develop a javascript viewer which allows users to quickly and easily visualize data from many instruments. Additionally, by providing raw (i.e. directly from the instrument, as format permits), time-aggregated, commonly gridded, and sitewide 'best estimate' datasets, we also iterate on levels of processing complexity for a host of needs. These usability advantages are consequences of our technical approach, namely automated workflows and analysis-ready zarr stores.

How to cite: Orlijan-Rhyne, R., Kluft, L., and Kölling, T.: Automated workflows for ever-growing, analysis-ready datasets at the Barbados Cloud Observatory, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7107, 2026.

EGU26-7717 | Orals | ESSI3.2

Integrating biodiversity in Situ data, Earth observation and stakeholder engagement - from machine- to policy-actionability 

Claus Weiland, Lena Perzlmaier, Daniel Bauer, Jonas Grieb, Julian Oeser, Taimur Khan, Sharif Islam, and Niels Raes

The EU’s Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, a core part of the European Green Deal, addresses the complex relationship between human society and its environment by prioritizing the restoration of ecosystems and building resilience against climate change, deforestation, and biodiversity loss.

These environmental stressors do more than just degrade ecosystems; they create a pressing need for policymakers, researchers, and society to actively track and mitigate ecological shifts. In order to design effective mitigation strategies, new political frameworks and massive simulation infrastructures are being developed with the aim to establish a common European Green Deal Data Space. The involved initiatives rely on the integration and standardization of diverse, large-scale datasets, ranging from long-term biodiversity records (e.g., eDNA) to real-time IoT sensor data (e.g., camera traps) and global Earth observation (EO) data combined with model-derived reanalysis datasets like ERA5.

‘Biodiversity Meets Data’ (BMD) is a Horizon Europe project delivering a unified access point for AI-assisted biodiversity monitoring and cross-realm (terrestrial, marine, freshwater) analysis tools representing a key contribution to the thematic expansion of the European Green Deal Data Space ecosystem. By providing a robust technical infrastructure, BMD facilitates the quantification of diverse ecological pressures - ranging from climate change to land-use shifts - on biodiversity. The project is strategically focused on the EU Natura 2000 network, equipping stakeholders such as conservation managers and policy makers with the necessary tools to implement and evaluate EU Nature Directives such as the Birds and Habitats Directives.

In this talk, we will present how BMD leverages FAIR Digital Objects (FDOs) and data space concepts around governance, licensing, and provenance tracking to synthesize computational workflows and diverse datasets into actionable knowledge units (“Workflow Run RO-Crate”, Figure 1). We will demonstrate our implementation path for such data-rich, self-contained digital containers building on web-based technologies such as RO-Crate (lightweight data packages) and FAIR Signposting (machine-interpretable layer describing resources). Those webby FDOs are designed to bridge the gap between practical needs of conservation stakeholders such as supporting data-driven decision making and technical capabilities of the Green Deal Data Space ecosystem.

Integration of targeted feedback from stakeholders, notably Natura 2000 site managers, into our development process ensures that the FAIR-compliant data products and FDO service framework are not only technically robust, but also socially and politically actionable.

 

Figure 1. Throughout its life cycle in the BMD data space, data is represented as RO-Crate. Initially (left), the data and the computational workflow are bundled as Workflow RO-Crate. Following processing, this is combined with the results and enriched with retrospective provenance and metadata to form a Workflow Run RO-Crate (right). Finally, these are presented as webby FAIR Digital Objects, incorporating a machine-interpretable layer based on FAIR Signposting (bottom).

 

How to cite: Weiland, C., Perzlmaier, L., Bauer, D., Grieb, J., Oeser, J., Khan, T., Islam, S., and Raes, N.: Integrating biodiversity in Situ data, Earth observation and stakeholder engagement - from machine- to policy-actionability, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7717, 2026.

EGU26-7771 | ECS | Orals | ESSI3.2

Standardizing and encouraging best practices in tephra sample and data collection 

Abigail Nalesnik, Kristi Wallace, Andrei Kurbatov, Kerstin Lehnert, and Stephen Kuehn

The tephra research community spans diverse disciplines—from volcanology to archaeology—but faces persistent challenges due to fragmented databases and limited data accessibility. To address these issues, the global tephra community has developed best practices for standardized data collection and reporting, documented in Wallace et al. (2022; zenodo.org/records/6568306). These guidelines and templates for physical and geochemical datasets promote FAIR principles by improving data consistency, discoverability, and interoperability. Implementing these practices can significantly enhance multidisciplinary research and foster collaboration.

To advance data discovery and accessibility, the tephra community has partnered with the Interdisciplinary Earth Data Alliance (IEDA²) to create the Tephra Information Portal (TIP). TIP serves as an integrated framework that connects tephra data from existing cyberinfrastructures—such as EarthChem, PetDB, GeoDIVA, SESAR, TephraBase, and StraboSpot—allowing users to search across tephra platforms using common criteria, enhancing data findability and reuse. Standardized data submissions to these platforms are therefore critical for improving the findability of samples and datasets through TIP, and their adoption is strongly encouraged by the tephra community.

How to cite: Nalesnik, A., Wallace, K., Kurbatov, A., Lehnert, K., and Kuehn, S.: Standardizing and encouraging best practices in tephra sample and data collection, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7771, 2026.

EGU26-7777 | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

Reproducible, transparent and traceable cleaning of IOC Tide Gauge Data 

Thomas Saillour and Panagiotis Mavrogiorgos

Accurate tide gauge records are essential for coastal monitoring, sea level analysis, and the calibration and validation of numerical models. However, global sea level data providers such as the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)1 often contain inconsistencies related to vertical datums, step changes, sensor noise, and undocumented interventions, which limit their direct applicability for modelling and validation purposes.

We present ioc_cleanup (github.com/oceanmodeling/ioc_cleanup) , an open-source Python repository designed to clean tide gauge time series using a reproducible and transparent workflow defined in structured JSON files. All transformations are traceable, version-controlled using Git, allowing for consistent quality control, peer-review and community-driven improvements. The framework explicitly addresses common data quality issues, including spikes, sensor noise, sensor replacement or substitution, and step changes, as well as the challenge of distinguishing bad data from genuine physical events such as storm-driven sea level extremes or tsunamis.

The cleaned datasets have been used for the calibration and validation of a global barotropic model, revealing systematic data quality patterns across stations and regions. While the framework is applied here to sea level data, the methodology is provider-agnostic and applicable to other geophysical time series.

By formalising expert-driven flagging and corrections in a transparent manner, ioc_cleanup provides a foundation for future developments, including the potential use of machine learning techniques to assist data flagging, reduce operator subjectivity, and extend spatial and temporal coverage. The framework offers a scalable contribution to other datasets (such as GESLA42) and supports reproducible coastal data curation.

Citations:
[1] Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ); Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) (2025): Sea level station monitoring facility. Accessed at https://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org/ on 2025-12-15 at VLIZ. DOI: 10.14284/482

[2] Haigh, I.D., Marcos, M., Talke, S.A., Woodworth, P.L., Hunter, J.R. & Hague, B.S. et al. (2023) GESLA Version 3: A major update to the global higher-frequency sea-level dataset. Geoscience Data Journal, 10, 293–314. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.174

How to cite: Saillour, T. and Mavrogiorgos, P.: Reproducible, transparent and traceable cleaning of IOC Tide Gauge Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7777, 2026.

EGU26-9152 | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

istSOS4Things - FAIR & Open Source IoT platform for Open Science 

Massimiliano Cannata, Daniele Strigaro, and Claudio Primerano

Sensor-based environmental monitoring is increasingly vital for research and decision-making, yet the current web standards used to share these data streams, such as the OGC SensorThings API (STA), do not fully support scientific reproducibility, data provenance, or data sovereignty. To meet reproducibility requirements, researchers often resort to downloading and archiving static snapshots of evolving time-series datasets, leading to unnecessary data duplication, loss of linkage with live sources, and inefficient data management.

IstSOS4Things (www.istsos.org) aims to close this critical gap by extending the STA standard with versioning and time-travel capabilities, enabling data auditing and persistent, immutable access to historical states of sensor observations through persistent URL. Much like Git allows access to past versions of code, the proposed STA-traveltime extension let users cite, query and extract the exact dataset used in a study, even years later.

This breakthrough addresses a long-standing limitation of geospatial web services and paves the way for fully FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) and reproducible research. In parallel, istSOS4Things introduces mechanisms for fine-grained access control embedded within the web service itself, empowering researchers and institutions to share their data in accordance with the principle of “as open as possible, as closed as necessary.” This helps overcome common hesitations for data sharing, ensuring trust, transparency, and legal compliance.

How to cite: Cannata, M., Strigaro, D., and Primerano, C.: istSOS4Things - FAIR & Open Source IoT platform for Open Science, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9152, 2026.

EGU26-9158 | Orals | ESSI3.2

Making STAC FDO-ready: A Practical Path toward FAIR Digital Objects in Geoscientific Data Spaces 

Hannes Thiemann, Ivonne Anders, Marco Kulueke, Beate Kruess, and Karsten Peters-von Gehlen

FAIR Digital Objects (FDOs) provide an actionable framework for implementing the FAIR principles by combining persistent identifiers with machine-readable metadata, explicit typing, and structured relations. The FDO Forum, as an open, community-driven initiative, develops and coordinates specifications and reference concepts to support interoperable digital objects across infrastructures. A key challenge, however, is demonstrating how these specifications can be applied in practice within existing data ecosystems, where established domain standards and evolving collections must be integrated rather than replaced.

In this contribution, a practical implementation of FDO specifications is presented using the SpatioTemporal Asset Catalog (STAC) as an example. As a widely adopted standard for spatio-temporal data, STAC's modular design makes it an ideal bridge between established community practices and the FDO paradigm. The demonstration shows how STAC objects are transformed into typed FDOs using Handle-based PIDs and registered object types via a Data Type Registry (DTR). This approach enables machine-actiolnable navigation and interpretation that transcends domain-specific tooling.

The approach is illustrated using a STAC-based catalog developed at the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ), reflecting typical characteristics of climate research and climate modelling data, such as evolving and versioned collections and multiple levels of aggregation. The focus is on the practical application of FDO specifications, illustrating how typing, identifiers, and relations can be introduced in a standards-compliant manner without disrupting existing infrastructures, while enabling stable referencing, automated discovery, and seamless integration into data-processing workflows.

The results show that implementing FDO specifications through STAC is a pragmatic and transferable pathway from specification-level concepts to operational adoption. The implementation enables the creation of interoperable, machine-actionable data spaces while building on established standards and tooling, and provides lessons learned for other infrastructures aiming to operationalize FAIR Digital Objects in practice.

How to cite: Thiemann, H., Anders, I., Kulueke, M., Kruess, B., and Peters-von Gehlen, K.: Making STAC FDO-ready: A Practical Path toward FAIR Digital Objects in Geoscientific Data Spaces, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9158, 2026.

EGU26-9202 | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

PID-Driven Global Access to Flagship km-scale Climate Simulation Data 

Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Kameswar Rao Modali, Florian Ziemen, Martin Bergemann, Christopher Kadow, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Siddhant Tibrewal, Ivonne Anders, Katharina Berger, Tobias Kölling, Lukas Kluft, Marco Kulüke, and Fabian Wachsmann

Climate science enterprise both produces and depends on extremely large datasets in order to meet the needs of diverse scientific and downstream user communities, especially as climate models are increasingly run at kilometre-scale resolutions, resulting in rapidly growing data volumes which increase demands on data handling infrastructures. Individual flagship simulations are no longer used by a single research group, but are routinely reused by dozens or even hundreds of researchers globally. Consequently, data findability, accessibility and reuse must be straightforward, data provenance must be transparent, and the full heritage of simulation data should be preserved in a machine-actionable manner to ensure scientific rigour, explainability and reproducibility.

In this contribution, we present a conceptual infrastructure-level approach developed within the WarmWorld project based on leveraging the versatility of globally unique persistent identifiers (PIDs) to address these challenges. Specifically, we illustrate that by assigning handles to simulation datasets already at the point of production, simulation data stored locally at a HPC data center can become part of a globally interoperable data ecosystem. In our concept, handle profiles contain an URL at which the dataset can be opened. Further, machine-actionable metadata, such as the detailed provenance information describing the employed model configuration or a data reuse license and citation, would be available from the handle landing page. Thus, the motivation behind the approach we follow here is akin to that of the FDO specifications.

Finalized simulation datasets would be exposed through globally accessible SpatioTemporal Asset Catalogs (STAC), where PIDs serve as the authoritative entry point for discovery and access. Data access would be handled by system libraries that resolve storage locations across heterogeneous storage tiers. Crucially, data access shall be designed to be globally open without the need for credentials, reflecting a strong demand from the climate research community, as clearly demonstrated during the WCRP kilometre-scale hackathon (May 2025).

Systematic assignment and pragmatic leveraging of handles assigned to locally stored datasets can thus enable scalable and interoperable access to flagship climate datasets across infrastructures and communities, effectively integrating traditionally closed HPC data environments into the global data space and facilitating interoperability with other large-scale data holdings.

How to cite: Peters-von Gehlen, K., Modali, K. R., Ziemen, F., Bergemann, M., Kadow, C., Wieners, K.-H., Tibrewal, S., Anders, I., Berger, K., Kölling, T., Kluft, L., Kulüke, M., and Wachsmann, F.: PID-Driven Global Access to Flagship km-scale Climate Simulation Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9202, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9202, 2026.

EGU26-9425 | ECS | Orals | ESSI3.2

Advancing FAIR Digital Objects for Machine-Actionable Research: Integrating Semantic Enrichment in Research Object Ecosystems 

Adam Rynkiewicz, Raul Palma, Paulina Poniatowska-Rynkiewicz, and Malgorzata Wolniewicz

Achieving higher levels of FAIR-ness for research artefacts demands not only structured packaging but also semantic enrichment that links textual resources to knowledge bases. ROHub, a reference platform implementing the Research Object paradigm, enables scientists to package and share research outputs as structured Research Object Crates (RO-Crates) - combining data, methods, software, and associated metadata into a unified, machine-processable entity. 

While RO-Crates inherently improve metadata richness and FAIR compliance by aggregating diverse resources with persistent identifiers and schema-based annotations, many research outputs still contain unlinked textual artefacts (e.g., reports, questionnaires, narratives) whose contextual semantics remain underutilized. Manual semantic annotation to link these textual elements to external knowledge bases - such as domain ontologies or vocabularies - is time-consuming and error-prone, yet crucial for enhancing findability, semantic interoperability, and machine-actionability. 

To address this gap, we extend ROHub with an automated semantic annotation service that identifies entities within text resources and links them to relevant knowledge bases, producing enriched metadata that feeds back into the RO-Crate structure. This service integrates entity linking techniques to reduce manual curation overhead and systematically increase the FAIRness and discoverability of research objects - making them more accountable to machine discovery, integration, and automated workflows. The result is a FAIR research object ecosystem where textual content, semantic context, and structured metadata co-exist in a machine-processable form, enhancing both human and computational reuse.

How to cite: Rynkiewicz, A., Palma, R., Poniatowska-Rynkiewicz, P., and Wolniewicz, M.: Advancing FAIR Digital Objects for Machine-Actionable Research: Integrating Semantic Enrichment in Research Object Ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9425, 2026.

EGU26-10308 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

Interoperable CSV for Environmental Data Archival and Exchange– iCSV 

Patrick Leibersperger, Mathias Bavay, Ionut Iosifescu Enescu, and Chase Núñez

Environmental research relies on seamless data exchange between institutions globally, but inade-
quate documentation and complex formats hinder collaboration. We introduce iCSV, a self-describing,
human-readable format that combines the simplicity of CSV with the metadata richness of NetCD-
F/CF. iCSV ensures long-term interpretability, interoperability and user accessibility, addressing
key challenges in environmental data stewardship. By embedding structured metadata directly in a
human-readable text file, iCSV enables automated validation, supports FAIR principles and lowers
the barrier to data sharing and reuse while ensuring data remains interpretable for future users and
maintaining broad compatibility with existing software. This work motivates the need for a simple,
self-describing tabular format for environmental time series, presents the iCSV specification, positions
it within existing binary and human-readable format ecosystems through comparative analysis, and
discusses current limitations with directions for future improvements.

How to cite: Leibersperger, P., Bavay, M., Enescu, I. I., and Núñez, C.: Interoperable CSV for Environmental Data Archival and Exchange– iCSV, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10308, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10308, 2026.

EGU26-10344 | Orals | ESSI3.2

FAIR Assessment in Geo-INQUIRE: Lessons Learned from Two Years of Experience 

Otto Lange, Laurens Samshuijzen, Enoc Martinez, Javier Quinteros, Helle Pedersen, Angelo Strollo, Carine Bruyninx, Florian Haslinger, Marc Urvois, Danciu LAurentiu, and Anna Miglio

The Geo-INQUIRE* project concerns an initiative in which, in a cross-domain setting, the European ESFRI landmark environmental research infrastructures EPOS, EMSO, ECCSEL, the Center of Excellence for Exascale Computing ChEESE, and the ARISE infrasound community, exploit innovative techniques to meet their FAIR data ambitions. At EGU25 we informed the audience about the project’s data management objectives and the strategies that were applied to translate the abstract concept FAIRness into practices that could widely be adopted in a large heterogeneous landscape of data producers. Specifically, we demonstrated how we established a pipeline for the assessment of levels of FAIRness with the integration of the F-UJI tool. This Geo-INQUIRE FAIRness Assessment Pipeline (GiFAP) is in use now for a period of about two years, in which it has proven to be a valuable instrument for the ongoing evaluation of the FAIRness of multiple datasets over time. However, interpreting and comparing snapshots of the value collections is by no means trivial and must be managed and communicated with care.

Because the integration of an assessment tool like F-UJI at the time always involves the adoption of a solution which itself is under active development and as such can hinder the reproducibility of outcomes, special care must be taken with respect to the versions used of both the tool itself and the underlying metrics framework. It is also essential to understand the effect of choices made during repeated assessment across time on the FAIR scores and their subsequent interpretation. The practical use of the overall pipeline as a tool to guide improvements in the FAIRness of data, mainly by adapting and improving the metadata, has revealed valuable insights in the subtleties of applying the FAIR data concept in different communities and to different data types.

As an important real-world example of applying the FAIR concept in a complex dynamic data-lifecycle setting we will explain how we technically integrated the F-UJI instrument in the existing infrastructure. A special focus will be put on possible pitfalls and their solutions regarding versioning issues that naturally arise when comparisons will be made over a longer period of time. The importance of managing expectations, the dependency on data managers, and the interference with applications for long tail researchers will be discussed and we will explain how we covered these within the project. Finally, we will explain how the Geo-INQUIRE solution could be adopted for comparable scenarios. 

* Geo-INQUIRE is funded by the European Union (GA 101058518)



How to cite: Lange, O., Samshuijzen, L., Martinez, E., Quinteros, J., Pedersen, H., Strollo, A., Bruyninx, C., Haslinger, F., Urvois, M., LAurentiu, D., and Miglio, A.: FAIR Assessment in Geo-INQUIRE: Lessons Learned from Two Years of Experience, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10344, 2026.

EGU26-11300 | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

FAIR-compliant infrastructure based on istSOS for high-resolution rainfall monitoring and alerting 

Daniele Strigaro, Massimiliano Cannata, Claudio Primerano, and Andrea Salvetti

In Switzerland, short-duration and spatially concentrated rainfall events increasingly affect small catchments, where limited response times can lead to flash floods and debris flows with significant impacts on local infrastructure. These phenomena typically develop at spatial and temporal scales that are not fully captured by conventional meteorological monitoring networks.

Recent events in Southern Switzerland, including in the municipality of Lumino, have shown how localized precipitation can rapidly overload drainage systems and watercourses. Such situations highlight the need for rainfall observations with higher spatial density and minute-scale temporal resolution, able to complement regional forecasting and warning services.

National early warning systems, including those provided by MeteoSwiss, form a key component of flood risk management but may not resolve precipitation variability at local scales. To complement these systems, SUPSI and the Canton Ticino’s Ufficio dei corsi d’acqua (UCA) are testing a denser rainfall monitoring network based on rain gauges delivering one-minute data streams in near real time.

The monitoring infrastructure is designed according to FAIR data principles, ensuring that observations are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. Data are managed through a cloud-based, event-driven architecture built on open geospatial standards, notably the OGC SensorThings API, implemented using the istSOS framework. Incoming data streams are processed on a computing cluster to derive cumulative rainfall indicators at multiple temporal scales (10-minute, hourly, and three-hourly), which are used to support threshold-based alerting mechanisms.

By combining high-resolution observations with open, standards-based data services, the system enables real-time visualization, automated notifications, and seamless integration with existing hydrological and risk management workflows. This approach demonstrates how FAIR-by-design monitoring infrastructures can bridge the gap between regional forecasts and local-scale observations, strengthening early warning capabilities and supporting more resilient flood risk management in a changing climate.

How to cite: Strigaro, D., Cannata, M., Primerano, C., and Salvetti, A.: FAIR-compliant infrastructure based on istSOS for high-resolution rainfall monitoring and alerting, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11300, 2026.

EGU26-11768 | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

A Cloud-Native GNSS Data Lakehouse for Scalable Ingestion, Processing, and Analysis 

Nils Brinckmann and Markus Bradke

The rapid growth of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, driven by dense station networks, high-rate data streams, and the modernisation of satellite constellations places increasing demands on data centers in terms of scalability, reliability, and reproducibility. Traditional monolithic GNSS data management systems are often difficult to scale and adapt to evolving processing and analysis workflows. To address these challenges, we are developing a cloud-native GNSS data center architecture based on container orchestration and streaming technologies.

Our system is built on Kubernetes to enable flexible deployment, horizontal scalability, and fault tolerance of GNSS services. Data ingestion is handled through Apache Kafka, which provides a robust, high-throughput messaging backbone for streaming GNSS observations from heterogeneous sources. This approach decouples data producers and consumers, allowing independent scaling of ingestion, processing, and downstream analytics.

For long-term storage and analytical access, GNSS data are ingested via ETL pipelines into an Apache Iceberg data lakehouse. Iceberg provides schema evolution, partition management, and ACID (Atomicity, Consistency, Isolation, and Durability) guarantees, enabling efficient access to large, time-series GNSS datasets for both batch and interactive analysis.

System performance, data flow, and service health are continuously monitored using Prometheus, with operational and scientific metrics visualized through Grafana dashboards. This monitoring framework facilitates operational stability, performance optimization, and transparent reporting of data latency and availability.

We present the overall system design, implementation details, and initial performance results, and discuss how this architecture improves scalability, resilience, and reproducibility compared to conventional GNSS data centers. The proposed approach provides a flexible foundation for next-generation GNSS services and can be extended to other geodetic and Earth observation data streams.

How to cite: Brinckmann, N. and Bradke, M.: A Cloud-Native GNSS Data Lakehouse for Scalable Ingestion, Processing, and Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11768, 2026.

EGU26-13109 | ECS | Orals | ESSI3.2

A harmonized, modular data quality framework facilitating cross-disciplinary usage and time-efficient evaluation of geospatial data 

Barbara Riedler, Sophia Klaußner, Stefan Lang, and Khizer Zakir

The increasing availability of spatial data coupled with the utilization of artificial intelligence, makes it essential to focus on the evaluation of data quality. At the same time, the fragmentation of existing quality frameworks hinders the attainment of comparable assessment results. We introduce a novel, modular framework for the evaluation of geospatial data quality with particular emphasis on FAIRness, transferability, reusability and spatial consistency. The framework thereby accommodates data of differing data processing levels, types and contexts. The hierarchical structure integrates common quality dimensions (e.g., completeness, accuracy, consistency) with new dimensions emphasizing upstream validity (metadata, traceability of input data, reproducibility) and downstream usability (applicability, transferability). Additionally, the framework enables the evaluation of two interlinked concepts: general data quality (DQ) and data adequacy (DA). The latter incorporates the relevance of data and the fit to use case-specific requirements. DQ and DA are measured through a combination of machine-evaluable metrics and structured expert judgment, aggregated as indicators on dimension and domain level. The assessment protocol is implemented in form of a spreadsheet and a web-based survey tool. The overall objectives of this development are (1) to achieve harmonization of existing quality concepts to facilitate cross-disciplinary data integration; (2) to support data selection processes in geospatial applications which involve multiple data sources and/or time-critical situations, through the reusability of evaluation results; and (3) to leverage the reflected data usage and integration into operational workflows through the consideration of spatial uncertainties and the implementation of aspects of FAIRness.

How to cite: Riedler, B., Klaußner, S., Lang, S., and Zakir, K.: A harmonized, modular data quality framework facilitating cross-disciplinary usage and time-efficient evaluation of geospatial data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13109, 2026.

EGU26-13278 | Orals | ESSI3.2

Is FAIR Sufficient for Interactive Data Services? Ensuring Sustainability and Reliability of the IPCC WGI Interactive Atlas 

Martina Stockhause, José Manuel Gutiérrez, Ezequiel Cimadevilla Alvarez, Maialen Iturbide, Lina Sitz, and Antonio S. Cofiño

The FAIR principles — Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable — underpin Open Science but does not fully ensure the long-term usability of interactive data services like the IPCC WGI Interactive Atlas. Drawing on lessons learned from developing and operating the Interactive Atlas, this presentation explores the challenges of sustaining such services, which rely not only on FAIR-compliant data and software but also on continuous stewardship, infrastructure maintenance, and institutional commitment.

Scientific quality and transparency of the Interactive Atlas are supported through expert assessment by the IPCC authors, provenance documentation, and Complex Citation, which combine the attribution of credit for assessed digital objects with the traceability of digital IPCC results. Yet, sustaining reliability requires ongoing stewardship of both data and software to prevent degradation and preserve reproducibility. Addressing these needs demands joint efforts of the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC) Partners to maintain data, documentation, and interactive components for a diverse user community. FAIR alone is not enough — long-term data preservation and infrastructure maintenance are essential to ensure the sustainability and trustworthiness of interactive data services in Earth system science.

By reflecting on both the successes and limitations of the Interactive Atlas, this contribution offers insights relevant to other Earth system science communities developing interactive or service-oriented data products. These approaches are also applicable to fields beyond Earth system science. 

How to cite: Stockhause, M., Gutiérrez, J. M., Cimadevilla Alvarez, E., Iturbide, M., Sitz, L., and Cofiño, A. S.: Is FAIR Sufficient for Interactive Data Services? Ensuring Sustainability and Reliability of the IPCC WGI Interactive Atlas, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13278, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13278, 2026.

EGU26-13673 | Orals | ESSI3.2

Bridging fragmented terminologies: advancing vocabulary harmonization in Seismology through AI and community co-creation 

Juliano Ramanantsoa, Angelo Strollo, Florian Haslinger, Javier Quinteros, Daniele Bailo, Otto Lange, Samshuijzen Laurens, Sven Peter Naesholm, and Mathilde B. Sørensen

The conceptual clarity of any scientific field depends fundamentally on the precision and standardisation of its terminology. Prior studies have shown that an absence of standardized terminologies can lead to interpretive ambiguity, imprecise outputs, and divergent interpretations across research communities. In seismology, terminologies remain scattered across institutional glossaries, impeding data FAIRness (Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reusability), metadata consistency, and collaboration with adjacent fields such as  transdisciplinary research and AI engineering.

This work, carried out within the Geo-INQUIRE* project, introduces a vocabulary generation framework and a prototype database implementing three integrated innovations that consolidate the sparse seismological terminologies into a structured, machine-readable format: i) authority-first retrieval, ii) AI-mediated semantic triangulation, and iii) participatory expert governance.

The authority-first pathway performs weighted, priority-ranked extraction from eight expert-curated data centre sources (including FDSN, USGS, EarthScope, EPOS, and other relevant documents from the community), ensuring that the definitions originate from trusted references. The AI fallback pathway is activated only when authoritative retrieval fails, employing a semantic triangulation method in which three large language models - such as OpenAI's GPT-5.2, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5, and Google's Gemini 3 - independently generate candidate definitions. Embedding-based similarity analysis determines synthesis eligibility; if cross-model agreement falls below 50 percent, an expert flag is raised to prevent semantic uncertainty. When synthesis proceeds, a transparent concept-merging process extracts common and unique contributions from each model, recording all reasoning steps and preserving full provenance, overcoming a critical limitation of black-box AI knowledge generation.

Beyond technical generation, this work embeds vocabulary development within a participatory framework that transforms terminology from static definitions into community-validated knowledge. Through structured digital deliberation involving more than ten domain experts via a GitHub-based workflow, the approach delivers transparency, auditability, and collective ownership. Experts validate AI-retrieved content, resolve edge cases, and steward terminology evolution through documented discussion threads, ensuring definitions reflect both institutional authority and practitioner consensus while fostering public trust in seismology.

The system produces vocabulary encoding scheme-compliant entries with dual definitions: an authoritative version weighted by source priority, and an AI-synthesized alternative with full provenance. The source-weighting mechanism is fully flexible ensuring the reusability of the framework. Applied to over 500 terms across 4 thematic clusters, this framework demonstrates that AI can systematically extend vocabulary completeness while participatory governance safeguards epistemic integrity. By coupling algorithmic precision with community oversight, this framework strengthens data discovery, metadata coherence, and research infrastructure interoperability across European and international seismological networks that advance transparent, reproducible, and interoperable seismological science.

*Geo-INQUIRE (Geosphere INfrastructures for QUestions into Integrated REsearch) is funded by the European Union (GA 101058518).

 

 

How to cite: Ramanantsoa, J., Strollo, A., Haslinger, F., Quinteros, J., Bailo, D., Lange, O., Laurens, S., Naesholm, S. P., and Sørensen, M. B.: Bridging fragmented terminologies: advancing vocabulary harmonization in Seismology through AI and community co-creation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13673, 2026.

EGU26-14101 | ECS | Orals | ESSI3.2

Embedding Indigenous Data Governance in Research Data Infrastructures through Local Contexts 

Sarvenaz Ghafourian, Sean Tippett, and Chantel Ridsdale

Indigenous Data Sovereignty reflects the inherent rights of Indigenous Peoples to govern data relating to their communities, lands, and knowledge, while Indigenous Data Governance concerns how these rights are enacted within data systems. Translating this into practice within large-scale environmental data infrastructures remains a challenge.

Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) hosts long-term, near real-time coastal and oceanographic datasets that are widely reused across research, operational, and increasingly automated and machine-assisted workflows. In this context, ensuring that Indigenous governance expectations are clearly communicated and respected throughout the data lifecycle is critical. This work presents ONC’s ongoing efforts to implement Local Contexts Traditional Knowledge and Biocultural Labels and Notices as part of its research data management infrastructure, bridging ethical principles with operational practice.

We describe how Local Contexts information is being integrated into ONC’s metadata profiles, dataset landing pages, and persistent identifier workflows using established standards such as ISO 19115 and DataCite, making the metadata human- and machine-readable. This approach ensures that governance signals, including community-defined use expectations and restrictions, remain visible and interpretable to both human and machine users as data moves through downstream discovery platforms and reuse pathways.

This work is being undertaken as a pilot project and proof of concept, using ONC-owned datasets within the Local Contexts Test Hub. Due to capacity constraints faced by many Indigenous communities, full implementation with community-generated labels is not yet in place. Instead, this pilot allows ONC to explore technical integration pathways, identify challenges related to metadata standardization and machine-readability, and develop documentation, guidance, and technical support in advance. This approach is intentionally designed to ensure that, when communities are ready to engage, they are provided with clear resources and meaningful options for participation without undue technical burden.

This case study demonstrates how Indigenous Data Sovereignty can be meaningfully embedded into existing Earth science data infrastructures without compromising FAIR principles or interoperability. By operationalizing CARE-aligned governance within metadata and identifier systems, this work offers a practical, scalable model for repositories seeking to support ethical, transparent, and community-centred data reuse in the Earth and environmental sciences.

How to cite: Ghafourian, S., Tippett, S., and Ridsdale, C.: Embedding Indigenous Data Governance in Research Data Infrastructures through Local Contexts, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14101, 2026.

EGU26-14565 | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

From Assessment to Action: ODATIS's Progressive Journey Toward FAIR Implementation in Ocean Sciences 

Erwann Quimbert and the ODATIS team

ODATIS, the ocean data hub within France's Data Terra research infrastructure, demonstrates how systematic progression from assessment through certification to innovation translates FAIR principles into sustainable community practices. Through three interconnected initiatives, ODATIS provides a replicable model for implementing FAIR while respecting domain-specific requirements.

Infrastructure Foundation

ODATIS operates through ten specialized Data and Service Centers (DSC) serving 130+ French research entities in physical oceanography, biogeochemistry, coastal observations, seafloor mapping, and marine ecosystems. This territorial network connecting national research infrastructure with local researchers provides the organizational foundation for systematic FAIR adoption. Two platforms anchor the infrastructure: SEANOE, a certified repository providing DOIs and preservation, and Sextant, a geographic catalog implementing ISO 19115 and OGC standards.

Assessment: The COPILOTE Project

Before imposing solutions, ODATIS assessed current capabilities through COPILOTE using the FAIR Data Maturity Model (FDMM). Evaluations revealed heterogeneous maturity levels and identified barriers: insufficient metadata, limited controlled vocabularies, unclear licensing, and inadequate provenance tracking. Participatory assessment engaged data managers and researchers in structured dialogue, transforming abstract FAIR concepts into concrete criteria. COPILOTE produced tailored improvement roadmaps demonstrating how standardized frameworks can respect institutional diversity while driving collective progress.

Certification: CoreTrustSeal Achievement

Building on assessment findings, ODATIS DSC pursued CoreTrustSeal certification, documenting organizational infrastructure, digital object management, and preservation capabilities. Successfully certified repositories including SEANOE achieved formal recognition of their trustworthiness, providing researchers with confidence in long-term data preservation and accessibility.

Innovation: The SO'Odatis Project

Funded by France's National Fund for Open Science, SO'Odatis develops integrated services making FAIR intrinsic to workflows. Four initiatives include: launching a diamond open-access journal linking publications with datasets and software; extending Sextant to catalog software with DOIs and Software Heritage integration; developing automated data paper generation from metadata; implementing comprehensive training through the correspondent network.

Cross-Disciplinary Lessons

ODATIS's journey demonstrates critical principles. Assessment before intervention reveals actual barriers and capabilities, preventing misdirected effort. Formal certification embeds FAIR into organizational culture beyond projects. Sustainable adoption requires reducing researcher burden through automation and workflow integration, not adding compliance tasks. Territorial networks enable bidirectional knowledge flow between infrastructure and communities. Critically, FAIR implementation is iterative, each phase builds on previous achievements while identifying new opportunities.

ODATIS offers a concrete roadmap: rigorous assessment identifies gaps; certification drives organizational maturity; innovation develops enabling tools; community engagement ensures relevance. This progression provides a replicable model for infrastructures translating FAIR principles into community-supported practices across Earth and environmental sciences.

How to cite: Quimbert, E. and the ODATIS team: From Assessment to Action: ODATIS's Progressive Journey Toward FAIR Implementation in Ocean Sciences, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14565, 2026.

EGU26-15996 | Orals | ESSI3.2

Enhancing discoverability and impact of dispersed data through persistent identifiers in Australia 

Julia Martin, Kerry Levett, and Hamish Holewa

Australian environmental, biodiversity and climate research generates vast and diverse datasets from a wide variety of organisations across the research, government, public and private sectors: all with significant potential to inform research, management and policy. However, these data are frequently stored across multiple institutional and government repositories that lack consistent governance, adequate rich metadata and consistent application of externally-agreed community standards that are fundamental to machine-to-machine discovery and interoperability. As a result, valuable long-tail data remain difficult to find, access and reuse, limiting their impact and hindering translation into decision-making and environmental management. National consultation led by the Australian Research Data Commons (ARDC) confirmed that poor discoverability of domain-specific data is a major barrier to research progress and evidence-based decision-making .

The Domain Data Portals (DDP) program, delivered through the ARDC Planet Research Data Commons, addresses this challenge by improving access to FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable) environmental and climate data held in distributed repositories. The program equips data stewards with tools and capabilities to make long-tail datasets FAIR for knowledge creation. This program partners with the National Environmental Science Program (NESP), Australia’s longest-running environmental research initiative, and the Australian Plant Phenomics Network (APPN). NESP is led by the Australian Government Department of Environment, Climate Change, Energy and Water (DCCEEW) and has 29 research partner organisations. NESP has four hubs in different environmental disciplines: 1)marine and coastal, 2) terrestrial ecology, 3) waste and sustainability, and 4) climate systems. APPN is an Australian National  Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy (NCRIS) Facility with nine research nodes. The DDP program is working with data managers across the nodes and disciplines to harmonise data formats and workflows while respecting domain-specific requirements.

The program is delivering cohesive, domain-level discovery of NESP and APPN research outputs through a dedicated portal within ARDC Research Data Australia, which is a metadata aggregation service that enables findability, accessibility, and reuse of data for research from over one hundred Australian research organisations, government agencies, and cultural institutions. To enable Research Data Australia to programmatically harvest the NESP and APPN metadata into the relevant portal, ARDC and the DDP project leads have worked with the  institutions and repositories in scope to develop guidelines on how to include relevant Persistent Identifiers in the metadata for their funded research outputs and ensure rich FAIR-compliant metadata. By developing rich, standardised metadata for all project outputs and leveraging national infrastructure, including persistent identifiers, controlled vocabularies and data publishing services, the DDP program enables robust, efficient aggregation and national discoverability of datasets.

This approach supports consistent adoption of community standards and enhances data visibility, integration and reuse. The Domain Data Portals approach can be applied to other research communities in Australia to make their data FAIR, leveraging components of ARDC’s national information infrastructure.

How to cite: Martin, J., Levett, K., and Holewa, H.: Enhancing discoverability and impact of dispersed data through persistent identifiers in Australia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15996, 2026.

EGU26-16338 | Orals | ESSI3.2

Today’s research for tomorrow’s challenges – building national research infrastructure across the full data life cycle 

Tim Rawling, Angus Nixon, Bryant Ware, Alex Hunt, Jens Klump, Anusuriya Devaraju, Rebecca Farrington, and Lesley Wyborn

As the volume and complexity of Earth science data continues to grow, driven by the availability of advanced instrumentation and requirement for new approaches to address geoscience questions and challenges, there is an increasing need for robust, end-to-end approaches to data management across the full data life cycle. Earth science datasets are, however, notoriously heterogeneous, spanning disciplines from geochemistry to geophysics and Earth observation, at observation levels from nanoscale to global, and amassing data volumes from megabytes to multi-petabyte collections. Yet for the vast majority of these datasets, the ‘raw’ observations collected by instrumentation, or Primary Observational Datasets (PODs), are not routinely reported or associated with the downstream, analysis-ready data products used to inform scientific or policy decisions. To enable reproducible and repurposable science particularly in a context where technical advances continue to push the data requirements upstream towards the primary observations, these PODs must be preserved for potential future applications and linked with the outputs they underpin.  

AuScope is Australia’s national geoscience research infrastructure funded through the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy (NCRIS), supports the geoscience community by providing data, data products, and software that align with the FAIR and CARE principles. Recognising that a single, monolithic repository cannot serve all disciplines, data types, or user communities, AuScope is developing an Earth Science Data Ecosystem that enables seamless access to PODs hosted across high-performance compute–data (HPC-D) and cloud environments, and provides pathways to connect raw observational data with curated, analysis-ready products delivered through distributed platforms and portals. A critical component of this ecosystem is strengthening digital infrastructure at the point of data generation and associating that primary observation with the published output. To address persistent challenges associated with manual data transfer, incomplete metadata capture, and limited long-term reuse, AuScope has embarked on the scoping and implementation of an Australian-first repository and capture system for PODs in geochemistry. By strengthening digital infrastructure at the point of data generation and embedding standards throughout the data life cycle, this work supports more efficient, interoperable, and collaborative Earth science research, maximising the long-term value of publicly funded data. 

How to cite: Rawling, T., Nixon, A., Ware, B., Hunt, A., Klump, J., Devaraju, A., Farrington, R., and Wyborn, L.: Today’s research for tomorrow’s challenges – building national research infrastructure across the full data life cycle, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16338, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16338, 2026.

EGU26-16876 | Orals | ESSI3.2

What happens when FAIR is built in from the start? Insights from the GOYAS Project 

Fernando Aguilar Gómez, Daniel García Díaz, Antonio López, Aina García-Espriu, and Cristina González-Haro

The Geospatial Open Science Yielding Applications (GOYAS) project, developed under the Horizon Europe OSCARS framework, demonstrates a comprehensive pathway from FAIR principles to operational practice for Earth observation (EO) data products. While the FAIR principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) are widely endorsed by research data communities, translating them into reproducible and scalable workflows across heterogeneous data providers remains challenging. This contribution presents concrete results and lessons learned from GOYAS project, which has developed and implemented a FAIR-by-design system that supports community adoption and cross-disciplinary data reuse.

At its core, GOYAS comprises a set of customized software components, including an automated data production pipeline, a georeferenced data repository, and an OGC-standard API endpoint. The data ingestion pipeline integrates automation that reduces the initial effort required from data producers to generate FAIR data, by automatically producing standardized metadata, provenance information, and quality metrics as a by-product of routine processing. This approach enables transparency, consistency, and long-term reuse across all stages of the data lifecycle. To enforce the “F” of Findability, persistent identifiers (PIDs) are minted for mature data products using EOSC-Beyond services, ensuring persistent, machine-actionable references and reliable data product traceability.

A key outcome of GOYAS is the implementation of a validation framework that acts as a prerequisite for the publication of final data products, whereby persistent identifiers are assigned only to validated outputs. Each product undergoes:

  • Metadata standard validation, ensuring compliance with agreed schemas and machine-readability requirements (ISO 19139);

  • INSPIRE alignment, verifying that spatial data components meet European geospatial interoperability standards;

  • FAIRness evaluation using FAIR EVA (Evaluator, Validator and Advisor), assessing the degree to which products comply with FAIR principles through automated tests.

Only when all validation checks are successfully passed is a product considered mature for publication and assigned a persistent identifier (PID), thereby guaranteeing discoverability and long-term referenceability within EOSC and beyond.

We discuss how FAIR-by-design principles were embedded at key architectural layers, including metadata generation, PID minting, and automated quality assessment, and how these design choices support not only technical interoperability but also community adoption. Lessons learned highlight the importance of early integration of FAIR requirements into workflow design, the practical challenges of harmonizing cross-domain standards (FAIR and INSPIRE), and the role of automation in enabling scalable FAIR implementations without imposing additional effort on data producers.

By providing a documented and operational model that combines FAIR principles, persistent identification, standards compliance, and automated validation, GOYAS advances the practical implementation of FAIR and open data management in environmental sciences and offers transferable insights for related research communities.

How to cite: Aguilar Gómez, F., García Díaz, D., López, A., García-Espriu, A., and González-Haro, C.: What happens when FAIR is built in from the start? Insights from the GOYAS Project, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16876, 2026.

EGU26-18803 | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

Operationalizing Data Fitness-for-Purpose Through Standardized Metrics, Local Uncertainty, and LLM-Extracted Quality Reasoning  

Markus Möller, Mahdi Hedayat Mahmoudi, and Paul Peschel

Making geospatial data FAIR requires more than metadata standardization - it demands transparent, structured reporting of data quality and uncertainty that allows researchers to assess fitness-for-purpose across diverse applications. Yet most FAIR implementations still treat quality as a generic metadata field, while uncertainty and fitness‑for‑purpose remain buried in narrative documentation and disciplinary tacit knowledge.

In the FAIRagro consortium, we operationalize an application‑oriented quality framework using the example of  Germany‑wide phenology time series (1 km, 1993-2022) by combining three components: (1) standardized producer‑side quality metrics (global R² and RMSE following ISO 19157‑1 for each crop, phase, and year), (2) spatially explicit local uncertainty layers, and (3) a machine‑actionable, application‑specific data quality matrix (AS‑DQM) that captures documented use contexts, validation strategies, limitations, and fitness‑for‑purpose statements from existing publications and workflow descriptions. Large Language Models (LLMs) are central to this workflow: after structure‑preserving conversion of PDFs to enriched Markdown, multimodal LLMs extract quality‑relevant concepts from text, tables, and figures, normalize them against a formal schema, and generate provenance‑linked AS‑DQM JSON profiles that can be queried and reused across applications.

These quality, uncertainty, and fitness profiles are then packaged as FAIR Digital Objects using interoperable containers (ARCs) for version‑controlled, reproducible workflows and RO‑CRATE standards for structured research object metadata - enabling seamless integration with research data management infrastructure and discovery systems. This approach ensures that quality reasoning, local uncertainty estimates, and application contexts travel together with phenology data through the research lifecycle, preserving provenance and enabling automated quality‑aware dataset selection.

This poster represents a transferable template for domain-specific FAIR implementation, demonstrating that structured uncertainty reporting, ISO-compliant quality metrics, LLM-assisted formalization of fitness-for-purpose information, and user-centered fitness-for-purpose assessments are essential bridges between abstract FAIR principles and practical, cross-disciplinary data reuse. For application, users can query not only "where are data FAIR?" but "where are data sufficiently accurate, well‑validated, and uncertainty‑constrained for this specific decision context?". By embedding LLM‑derived quality knowledge, uncertainty products, and an application matrix into machine‑actionable FAIR Digital Objects, we move from static compliance towards dynamic, evidence‑based fitness‑for‑purpose assessment - thereby strengthening trust in public data sets.

How to cite: Möller, M., Hedayat Mahmoudi, M., and Peschel, P.: Operationalizing Data Fitness-for-Purpose Through Standardized Metrics, Local Uncertainty, and LLM-Extracted Quality Reasoning , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18803, 2026.

EGU26-18884 | Orals | ESSI3.2

Scaling FAIR Data Practices in Climate Modelling  

Kelsey Druken, Joshua Torrance, Romain Beucher, Martin Dix, Aidan Heerdegen, Paige Martin, Charles Turner, and Spencer Wong

Making research data Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR) is now widely recognised as essential for open and reproducible science. In practice, however, translating FAIR principles into everyday data management remains challenging, particularly in climate modelling, which involves large data volumes and complex software and data environments on high-performance computing (HPC) platforms. Research rarely follows a simple path from data generation to publication, and FAIR is still often treated as a final, optional step rather than as a set of practices embedded and maintained throughout scientific workflows. 

We present a case study from Australia’s Climate Simulator (ACCESS-NRI) that examines how FAIR principles can be advanced through two complementary approaches applied in parallel. One focuses on the social and practical aspects of FAIR, supporting researchers to apply FAIR practices as part of their everyday research activities. The other centres on embedding FAIR directly into tools and processes, thereby reducing reliance on manual effort and helping to minimise the errors and inconsistencies that naturally arise in complex, collaborative environments. 

Through an open, merit-allocation based approach, ACCESS-NRI provides multiple data sharing pathways, from shorter-term spaces that support active development and collaboration to more curated, publication-ready datasets for longer-term access. This staged model supports the progressive application and uplift of FAIR practices as data are generated, shared, and refined over time, substantially streamlining later curation. Alongside this, we have also focused on improving the consistency and standardisation of ACCESS model outputs by embedding established community conventions and defined data specifications directly in the ACCESS software and release processes. This helps reduce variation across model outputs, supports reuse across tools and researchers, and shifts FAIR from a largely manual effort towards standard practice. 

This case study demonstrates how FAIR principles can be advanced through practical, community-aligned approaches that fit within real research contexts. For ACCESS-NRI, these efforts provide a foundation for tackling deeper FAIR data challenges, with lessons that are relevant to other Earth and environmental science domains facing similar constraints. 

How to cite: Druken, K., Torrance, J., Beucher, R., Dix, M., Heerdegen, A., Martin, P., Turner, C., and Wong, S.: Scaling FAIR Data Practices in Climate Modelling , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18884, 2026.

EGU26-18954 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

EOPF Toolkit: Engaging the Sentinel community to adopt the EOPF Zarr data format 

Gisela Romero Candanedo, Julia Wagemann, Sabrina H. Szeto, Emmanuel Mathot, Felix Delattre, Ciaran Sweet, James Banting, Sharla Gelfand, and Tom Christian

The European Space Agency (ESA), through the Earth Observation Processor Framework (EOPF), is reprocessing Sentinel-1, -2, and -3 archives into the cloud-optimised format Zarr. Through the EOPF Sentinel Zarr Samples Service, Sentinel data users can get early access to sample data in the new EOPF Zarr format.

The ESA-funded EOPF Toolkit project supports users transitioning from the legacy .SAFE Sentinel format to the cloud-optimised EOPF Zarr standard. The core development is EOPF 101, a comprehensive online resource designed to help users explore EOPF Sentinel Zarr data in the cloud. Through step-by-step and hands-on tutorials, Sentinel data users learn how to effectively use EOPF Sentinel Zarr products and build Earth Observation workflows that scale.

Chapter 1 - About to EOPF provides a high-level, easy-to-understand overview of the EOPF project by ESA. Chapter 2 - About EOPF Zarr provides a practical introduction to the cloud-optimised Zarr data format. It shows the benefits of the format, gives an overview of the data structure and includes performance comparisons with other formats. Chapter 3 - About Chunking provides an introduction to the chunking paradigm and lets users explore how to optimise their workflow. Chapter 4 - About EOPF STAC gives easy-to-understand practical examples on how to discover and access data with the EOPF STAC catalog. Chapter 5 - Tools to work with Zarr provides a collection of practical examples of languages, libraries and plug-ins that support users in working with data from the EOPF Samples Service. Chapter 5 - EOPF in Action is a collection of hands-on, practical end-to-end workflows featuring the use of EOPF Zarr data in different application areas.

Besides EOPF 101, the project had additional community engagement activities such as a notebook competition and a collaboration with Champion Users. The notebook competition took place between October 2025 and January 2026. During this period, the Sentinel data community was invited to try out the new EOPF Zarr data format themselves and share their workflows in the form of Jupyter Notebooks. The project further engaged with five organisations (Champion Users) to develop end-to-end workflows in different application domains

The EOPF Toolkit bridges the gap between data provision and practical application through three pillars of engagement: structured learning, expert guidance, and competitive innovation. While the EOPF 101  provides the foundational roadmap, Champion Users offer expert-level insights, and the notebook competition builds a library of community-sourced examples. Together, these initiatives create a feedback loop that transforms new adopters into active contributors, reducing the time-to-insight to the EOPF Zarr data format.

In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the community resources developed under the EOPF Toolkit and will share lessons learned from the community engagement activities.

How to cite: Romero Candanedo, G., Wagemann, J., H. Szeto, S., Mathot, E., Delattre, F., Sweet, C., Banting, J., Gelfand, S., and Christian, T.: EOPF Toolkit: Engaging the Sentinel community to adopt the EOPF Zarr data format, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18954, 2026.

EGU26-19834 | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

EMODnet Chemistry and FAIR principles; evaluating and updating vocabularies 

Megan Anne French, Blakeman Samantha, Alessandra Giorgetti, Hans Mose Hansen, Marina Lipizer, Maria Eugenia Molina Jack, Gwenaelle Moncoiffe, Anna Osypchuk, and Matteo Vinci

The European Marine Observation and Data Network (EMODnet) was established in 2009 and is proposed as the European Commission (EC) in situ marine data service of the EC Directorate-General Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (DG MARE). EMODnet represents a network of organisations providing free access to European marine data available as interoperable data layers and data products for seven themes: Bathymetry, Geology, Physics, Chemistry, Biology, Seabed habitats, and Human activities. EMODnet Chemistry makes aggregated data collections and products available for contaminants, eutrophication, and marine litter following the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) principles (Wilkinson et al., 2016); for instance, the use of standardised vocabularies supports findability, interoperability, and reuse. EMODnet Chemistry uses the standardised, hierarchically mapped vocabularies of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Vocabulary Server (NVS, managed by the British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC)) for indexing and annotating meta(data). For example, the BODC Parameter Usage Vocabulary (P01, https://vocab.nerc.ac.uk/search_nvs/P01/) is used to describe variables by providing detailed information on the target chemical object (S27 vocabulary) or property and the matrix/medium including phase, while the SeaDataNet Parameter Discovery Vocabulary (P02, https://vocab.nerc.ac.uk/search_nvs/P02/) and EMODnet Chemistry chemical groups (P36, https://vocab.nerc.ac.uk/search_nvs/P36/) are used to group P01s. Recently, working group activities evaluated EMODnet Chemistry vocabulary issues and needs and proposed improvements; for example, deprecating and replacing the P36 for polychlorinated biphenyls with a new P36 for organohalogens. Thus, some new P36 vocabularies were created/deprecated and the names and definitions of other P36 chemical groups were revised for correctness and to ensure that lower-level vocabularies could be mapped. This work resolved numerous mapping issues for EMODnet Chemistry, allowing all chemical substances to be mapped, making more data findable and interoperable in EMODnet. It also increased alignment with the vocabularies of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). Overall, these efforts improve EU marine data management and support alignment with other EU frameworks.

 

Reference

Wilkinson et al., 2016. The FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship. 10.1038/sdata.2016.18

How to cite: French, M. A., Samantha, B., Giorgetti, A., Hansen, H. M., Lipizer, M., Molina Jack, M. E., Moncoiffe, G., Osypchuk, A., and Vinci, M.: EMODnet Chemistry and FAIR principles; evaluating and updating vocabularies, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19834, 2026.

EGU26-20023 | Orals | ESSI3.2

Paving the Road to FAIR – Strategies and Considerations to activate PIDs in a large Organization 

Emanuel Soeding, Dorothee Kottmeier, Andrea Poersch, Stanislav Malinovschii, Johann Wurz, and Sören Lorenz

At the Helmholtz Association, we aim to establish a harmonized data space that connects information across distributed infrastructures. Ideally, this should work within and beyond our organization. Achieving requires standardizing dataset descriptions using suitable metadata. A handy strategy is, to use persistent identifiers (PIDs) and their metadata records to harmonize central parts of the metadata. This will ensure a first level of interoperability and machine actionability even between discipline-unrelated datasets.

While harmonizing PID metadata is a key step, practical implementation depends on a number of factors: 1. Leadership, to support the necessary change processes, 2. A general awareness of roles and responsibilities across the whole research organization, 3. An implementation plan that prioritizes tasks, identifies the right people and interfaces, and specifies the tools and services required to record metadata. 4. An implementation group comprising people with the relevant expertise to implement and communicate the change process, 5. Informational material and training, to onboard the ones who are affected by change, 6. an organization's management supporting the upcoming change, and 7. Funding to be able to overcome the initial obstacles and get everything up and running.

For example, ORCID identifies research contributors. While often associated with publishing scientists, other contributors—such as technicians, data managers, and administrative staff—also play vital roles. Their contributions are often overlooked or not systematically recorded. To change this, PID workflows should begin early, ideally at the hiring stage, to ensure people's roles are captured and linked to datasets.

Similarly, the PIDINST system—developed by an RDA working group—provides unique identifiers for scientific instruments. It includes a simple schema for recording key metadata about instruments, enabling the reliable identification of measurements made with specific devices. Here, workflows should begin with instrument acquisition and include responsibilities for updating metadata, typically assigned to technicians.

In this presentation, we propose tailored PID workflows involving key stakeholder groups within Helmholtz. We outline strategies for implementing ORCID, ROR, PIDINST, IGDS, DataCite and CrossRef DOIs and assign responsibilities for metadata curation. Our goal is to embed PID usage in day-to-day research processes across all centers of our organization and clarify stakeholder roles, thereby strengthening metadata quality and data interoperability of our metadata.

How to cite: Soeding, E., Kottmeier, D., Poersch, A., Malinovschii, S., Wurz, J., and Lorenz, S.: Paving the Road to FAIR – Strategies and Considerations to activate PIDs in a large Organization, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20023, 2026.

EGU26-20356 | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

The role of domain repositories in sustaining high-quality data publications: researcher-oriented tools and strategies under limited resources  

Kirsten Elger, Alexander Brauser, Holger Ehrmann, Ali Mohammed, and Melanie Lorenz

In the geosciences, most research results are supported by data. These data are measured, collected, generated or compiled by humans or machines (including numerical modelling) and they represent an increasingly important part of the research outcome. They should be made available and shared in openly in a reusable format wherever possible, while fully acknowledging the contributions of the individual researchers and institutions that collected or generated the data.

Research data repositories are permanent archives that provide access to data, metadata to related physical samples, as well as scientific software. An increasing number of repositories are assigning digital object identifier (DOI) to the data stored in their archives. The range of services offered includes fully self-service DOIs at large generic repositories, to institutional repositories that are open to institutional members only, and curated data publications by domain repositories specialising in data from a specific scientific field.

The involvement of skilled data curators, who are often also domain researchers, makes domain repositories the preferred destination for the publication of well-documented and reusable data. The generic metadata required for DOI registration is complemented by extensive, domain-specific metadata properties, such as the information on the temporal and geospatial domains, mineral or rock names, instruments and analytical methods. Ideally, this information derives from embedded controlled vocabularies or ontologies, which increase the discoverability of the data for humans and machines. During curation, author information is also supplemented with ORCID and ROR identifiers, and the published data is digitally connected to related research articles, datasets, software, and the physical samples from which the data were obtained. However, they are facing challenges due to insufficient staff to uphold these high publication standards. Unfortunately, the resulting delay in processing requests directs many researchers to generic repositories offering self-service DOIs that do not provide any data curation.

To address these challenges, GFZ Data Services provides intuitive tools for collecting rich metadata (metadata editors), data description templates with extensive explanations and online instructions on recommended file formats, for example. These tools enable researchers to provide high-quality metadata from the outset, thereby reducing the workload and time required for data curation.

In November 2025, GFZ Data Services launched ELMO, the fully revised and modernised version of our metadata editor. ELMO is not only a new web interface, but also contains many new features that improve the quality of metadata and the FAIRness of the data it describes, while simplifying the entry of information for researchers. For example, authors' names and institutions can be automatically entered by entering the ORCID; affiliations can be selected from a drop-down menu linked to the Registry of Research Institutions (ROR); and the controlled, linked data vocabularies already in use (e.g., GCMD and geosciML) are directly connected to the vocabulary services API, thus ensuring they are always up to date.

This presentation will outline the advantages and disadvantages of domain repositories, and introduce our new metadata editor ELMO.

How to cite: Elger, K., Brauser, A., Ehrmann, H., Mohammed, A., and Lorenz, M.: The role of domain repositories in sustaining high-quality data publications: researcher-oriented tools and strategies under limited resources , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20356, 2026.

Making research data Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) is widely recognised as essential for open and reproducible science. However, researchers often face a gap between FAIR-compliant datasets and data that are actually fit for specific scientific or operational applications. This gap arises because data quality is inherently application-dependent, while critical assumptions, limitations, and uncertainty characteristics are frequently documented only implicitly across publications, dataset metadata, and workflow descriptions. 

We present a document-driven, application-oriented approach to data quality assessment developed within the FAIRagro initiative. 
The method uses the \textbf{Application-Specific Data Quality Matrix (AS-DQM)}, which systematically captures reasoning linking documented data characteristics—such as spatial and temporal resolution, validation strategies, and known limitations—to application requirements and explicit fitness-for-Purpose statements (\href{https://zenodo.org/records/17981173}{FAIRagro resources}). Rather than computing new quality metrics, the AS-DQM formalizes existing knowledge already generated by research communities, reduces barriers to adoption, and supports responsible data reuse. 

The approach is illustrated using a Germany-wide phenology time series as a pilot example. By analysing dataset documentation together with a concrete phenology-based scientific studies, the AS-DQM demonstrates how application-specific quality requirements—such as acceptable temporal uncertainty, spatial aggregation assumptions, and suitability for regional-scale analyses—can be systematically extracted and made explicit. Comparing the resulting application-level quality profile with the dataset-level documentation shows how fitness-for-Purpose emerges from the interaction between data characteristics and application context, highlighting cases where datasets are conditionally suitable or explicitly unsuitable for specific analyses. 

We discuss strengths, limitations, and adoption challenges of document-driven, application-oriented data quality reasoning, emphasizing its broad relevance across Earth and environmental sciences and its role in fostering sustainable, community-driven FAIR data practices.

How to cite: Hedayat Mahmoudi, M. and Möller, M.: From FAIR Principles to Fitness-for-Purpose: Document-Driven, Application-Oriented Data Quality in Agrosystem Research, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21042, 2026.

EGU26-21662 | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

Integration of TERENO into the DataHub Digital Ecosystem 

Ralf Kunkel, Marc Hanisch, Christof Lorenz, Ulrich Loup, David Schäfer, Thomas Schnicke, and Jürgen Sorg

In Earth sciences, there is an increasing demand for long-term observation data related to the hydrosphere, pedosphere, biosphere, and lower atmosphere across multiple spatial and temporal scales. In parallel, standardized methods to manage, find, access, provide interoperability, and reuse these data (FAIR) have been developed. Numerous centralized or distributed data infrastructures (thematic silos) exist, often with similar architectures but with a diversity of access methods, vocabularies for description, and frameworks for handling data and data flows.

DataHub is an initiative of the German Helmholtz Research Field Earth and Environment (E&U) with the aim of developing and operating a scalable, FAIR, and distributed digital research infrastructure to link research data from all compartments of the Earth system. By coordinating vocabularies, persistent identifiers (PIDs), and a common nomenclature across centres, DataHub ensures interoperability with national and international systems. The goal is the transition from isolated silos to interdisciplinary infrastructures. This is achieved by creating a community-driven digital research data ecosystem characterized by collaborative software development; the provision and use of products under a common open-source license model; a harmonized architecture of data management systems; connectivity of data via standardized interfaces (e.g., OGC STA, CSW, WMS); and, most importantly, the harmonization of data descriptions and data flows. As a first step, existing data infrastructures are integrated into the jointly developed DataHub environment.

TERENO (TERrestrial ENvironmental Observatories) is used as a reference implementation for the integration of an existing distributed data infrastructure into DataHub. TERENO is an interdisciplinary, long-term research program involving five centres of the German Helmholtz Association (FZJ, GFZ, UFZ, KIT, DLR). Running since 2008, it comprises an Earth observation network across Germany and provides long-term environmental data at multiple spatial and temporal scales to study the long-term impacts of land-use and climate change. It provides more than 3.3 billion observations from over 900 sites.

During the last decade, several drawbacks have been identified in the operation of TERENO, such as inhomogeneities in metadata describing measurement instrumentation and the observed data themselves. Moreover, different data quality routines and assessment schemes are applied.

How to cite: Kunkel, R., Hanisch, M., Lorenz, C., Loup, U., Schäfer, D., Schnicke, T., and Sorg, J.: Integration of TERENO into the DataHub Digital Ecosystem, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21662, 2026.

EGU26-21754 | Orals | ESSI3.2

Collaborative Governance Solutions for NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Data, Information, and Software 

Kaylin Bugbee, Deborah Smith, Emma Koontz, Rhea Bridgeland, Emily Foshee, Jaclyn Stursma, Dhanur Sharma, Rishab Dey, and Fred Kepner

Effective data governance requires a collective approach rather than isolated efforts. To achieve this, the NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) governance team—part of the Data and Analysis Services Project (DASP)—is implementing a strategy to support the Chief Science Data Officer’s vision for interdisciplinary, interoperable open science. The DASP governance team focuses on several key functions. First, the governance team has developed a framework to create governance and guidance for the data, information, and software used across the SMD community to ensure compliance with agency and government policies. The current governance model employs a rapid-response approach, using focused initiatives to identify high-priority needs and develop practical solutions. Second, the DASP governance team works to streamline operations and reduce friction for scientists and data stewards by utilizing automation and targeted training. Third, the DASP governance team is building a robust community of data repositories to empower open science and foster collaboration between divisions. To enhance these efforts, DASP has launched a centralized online hub designed to strengthen connections between SMD data stewards. This centralized platform allows for governance initiative reviews, community updates and sharing of relevant resources. This presentation will share the high-level SMD governance process, the development of the centralized governance community platform, and lessons learned from the first initiatives developed via the governance process. 

How to cite: Bugbee, K., Smith, D., Koontz, E., Bridgeland, R., Foshee, E., Stursma, J., Sharma, D., Dey, R., and Kepner, F.: Collaborative Governance Solutions for NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Data, Information, and Software, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21754, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21754, 2026.

Abstract Text (235 words):
Making marine geospatial data Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) remains challenging for researchers and policy implementors, particularly in integrating geological and biological datasets for Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) management. This contribution shares experiences developing domain-specific FAIR workflows for west coast Ireland SACs (Porcupine Seabight, Belgica Mound, Inisheer Island), harmonizing INFOMAR multibeam data, EMODnet Geology, OBIS biodiversity, and Copernicus currents via the European Digital Twin Ocean (EDITO) and Destination Earth (DestinE) platforms (and others).

Seabed integrity metrics (e.g., Bedrock Suitability Index information) and substrate maps (85% accuracy, Random Forest classification) will be processed on available platforms, e.g., EDITO and DestinE HPC, post-QC for best possible and valid geometries and INSPIRE compliance. Biodiversity connectivity matrices (previous published work and code from the coastalNet R package will be cited and explored), pairwise probabilities e.g., 0.35 Belgica-to-Porcupine) overlay oceanographic simulations (e.g., ESRI EMUs), deposited as interoperable WMS layers on Figshare DOIs with plain-language metadata and APIs.

Specific challenges include integrating "dark" datasets and bridging technical-policy gaps; solutions involved AI-driven summarization, automated versioning, and user-centric pilots (e.g., co-design workshops, tracking download rates, policy citations). Additional challenges include alignment with MSFD thresholds (>25% degraded seabeds) and OSPAR goals fostered adoption, with sensitivity analyses (low BSI reduces connectivity 20-40%) potentially useful for informing trawling vignettes and conservation and restoration efforts (reefs on BSI>0.7).

This approach respects ocean science needs while promoting cross-disciplinary understanding and reuse (e.g., hydrology via sediment mobility), demonstrating cultural shifts through stakeholder panels and GDPR-compliant training toolkits. Outcomes advance RDA ESES goals by scaling FAIR practices for real-time AI dashboards, inviting dialogue on community-driven refinement.

How to cite: Auerbach, J. and Crowley, Q.: FAIR Marine Data Workflows for Policy: Unifying Seabed Integrity and Connectivity in Irish SACs via EDITO and DestinE, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21811, 2026.

EGU26-22121 | Posters on site | ESSI3.2

Translating FAIR Principles into Practice: Lessons from Four Decades of Cryospheric Data Stewardship 

Donna Scott, Siri Jodha Singh Khalsa, Shannon Leslie, Amanda Leon, Amy Steiker, and Ann Windnagel

Applying the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) principles to enable open and reproducible science is now a core goal across research communities. Yet, for well-established data centers and specialized domains, translating these principles into everyday, sustainable practice remains a significant challenge. Using the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) as a case study—founded in 1976 as the World Data Center for Glaciology—we examine how legacy data holdings, evolving research practices, and emerging standards converge in the pursuit of FAIR-aligned stewardship.

This presentation highlights both progress and hurdles in modernizing four decades of passive microwave snow and ice data records from SMMR, SSM/I, and SSMIS sensors managed by the NSIDC Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) and NOAA@NSIDC data programs. Many of these data products predate mature standards for metadata, provenance, and interoperability standards, originally distributed in basic binary formats with limited documentation and access options. We describe efforts to migrate these legacy products to self-describing formats, enhance provenance, improve transparency, broaden accessibility and services, and align repository operations with contemporary expectations for FAIR and Open Science.

 

Equally important are the cultural and organizational shifts needed to foster engagement among  researchers, data producers, and data managers in adopting and refining best practices that serve the cryospheric community’s specific needs. We share strategies for balancing standardization with domain-specific requirements, and reflect on how lessons learned from cryospheric data stewardship may inform broader FAIR implementation across the Earth sciences. By sharing these experiences, we hope to contribute to interdisciplinary dialogue on building sustainable, community-driven data ecosystems that support open and reproducible scientific research.

How to cite: Scott, D., Khalsa, S. J. S., Leslie, S., Leon, A., Steiker, A., and Windnagel, A.: Translating FAIR Principles into Practice: Lessons from Four Decades of Cryospheric Data Stewardship, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22121, 2026.

EGU26-22747 | Orals | ESSI3.2

Fostering cross-disciplinary dialogue and credit attribution practices through Science Explorer, a digital library that tracks impact of literature, software and data 

Anna Kelbert, Alberto Accomazzi, Edwin Henneken, Kelly Lockhart, Jennifer Bartlett, and Michael Kurtz
The NASA-funded Science Explorer (SciX) is an open, curated information discovery platform for Earth and space science providing trusted access to interdisciplinary scientific resources. Developed as an extension of the Astrophysics Data System (ADS), a cornerstone of scholarly communication in astrophysics, SciX is designed to serve a broader scientific community, with a strong focus on supporting Earth science research, applications, and societal decision-making.
 
At the heart of SciX is a carefully curated database, where all indexed content (literature, datasets, and software) is sourced from reputable, authoritative providers. This ensures that users engage only with credible scientific information, making SciX a trusted environment for
discovery and decision support. The system integrates peer-reviewed research, preprints, conference and meeting abstracts, funded projects, mission and archival datasets, and software tools across domains, fostering connections between Earth and space sciences. This multidisciplinarity is essential for addressing complex societal challenges such as climate adaptation, disaster resilience, as well as larger research questions such as the origin of the solar system and the presence of life in the universe. The key ingredient that SciX is providing is a unified and precise, full-text search across these curated resources. We discuss our efforts to enrich these resources with common disciplinary and cross-disciplinary controlled vocabularies
to enhance findability and cross-disciplinary dialogue.
 
We also discuss our efforts to build a knowledge graph at SciX that connects the literature and the data and software resources, exposing the use of data and software in research and tracking the impact of these resources. In doing so, we hope to facilitate a cultural shift in the Earth and space science communities to streamline adoption of data and software citations, and to better align academic incentives with FAIR practices that have broad societal impact, such as metadata transparency, and resource accessibility and reuse.

How to cite: Kelbert, A., Accomazzi, A., Henneken, E., Lockhart, K., Bartlett, J., and Kurtz, M.: Fostering cross-disciplinary dialogue and credit attribution practices through Science Explorer, a digital library that tracks impact of literature, software and data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22747, 2026.

EGU26-255 | Orals | GD1.1

Geomagnetic jerks as core surface flow acceleration pulses – observations and simulations. 

Frederik Madsen, Kathy Whaler, Will Brown, Ciarán Beggan, and Richard Holme

Geomagnetic jerks are the fastest variations we observe in secular variation (SV) of the internal geomagnetic field. They have been deemed spatiotemporally unpredictable, and thus make it difficult to forecast magnetic field changes. Recent core surface flow-inversions of satellite SV data show that pulses in modelled azimuthal flow acceleration are contemporaneous with localised low latitude jerks observed in the Atlantic and Pacific from 2000—2024.

In order to explore to what extent such pulses might be responsible for observed geomagnetic jerks, we simulate them with synthetic flow models. We use a Fisher–Von Mises probability distribution to spatially define the pulse, which ensures that its spherical harmonic expansion in terms of poloidal and toroidal spherical harmonic coefficients converges. To recover a dynamic flow, we add uncorrelated noise to these toroidal and poloidal acceleration coefficients.  After this, we obtain SV from flow acceleration using the diffusionless induction equation, investigating a variety of background flows and core-surface magnetic field structures with our flow-acceleration pulse. Finally, we plot the expected SV at the Earth’s surface.

We successfully generate geomagnetic jerks, similar to those observed by CHAMP in the Atlantic in 2003.5 and 2007, and Swarm in the Pacific in 2017 and 2020. This pulse-like simulator for low-latitude jerks is in agreement with results from numerical dynamo simulations, which suggest that jerks originate from Alfvén wave packets emitted from the inner-outer core boundary. Our results further suggest that there is no need for waves longitudinally propagating along the outer core surface for jerks to occur.

How to cite: Madsen, F., Whaler, K., Brown, W., Beggan, C., and Holme, R.: Geomagnetic jerks as core surface flow acceleration pulses – observations and simulations., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-255, 2026.

EGU26-2141 | Orals | GD1.1

Patches of negative core-mantle boundary heat flux: simulations of mantle convection and implications for core dynamics 

Frederic Deschamps, Joshua Guerrero, Hagay Amit, Filipe Terra-nova, and Wen-Pin Hsieh

Heat flux at the Earth’s core-mantle boundary (CMB) partially controls the outer core dynamics and its associated geodynamo. On the mantle side, lateral variations in temperature above the CMB trigger lateral variations in heat flux with low temperature (typically, in and around subducted slabs) and high temperatures (at plumes roots and beneath hot thermo-chemical piles) areas being associated with high and low heat flux regions, respectively. Spatial and temporal variations in temperature are, in turn, controlled by details of mantle convection and mantle material properties. Here, we investigate the influence on CMB heat flux of two key parameters: the excess internal heating within piles of hot, dense material (also referred to as primordial material) modelling the large low shear-wave velocity provinces (LLSVPs) observed by global seismic tomography maps; and the temperature-dependence of thermal conductivity. For this, we perform a series of high-resolution numerical simulations of thermo-chemical convection in spherical annulus geometry using the code StagYY. Importantly, the total heating rate within the mantle is fixed, meaning that an excess heating within piles is balanced by a reduced heat released elsewhere. The initial condition on composition consists in a thin basal layer of chemically denser material, which subsequently evolves into piles of hot, primordial material on the top of which plumes are being generated. Our simulations show that the CMB heat flux is lower than the core adiabatic heat flux throughout the base of primordial material piles, and that it can be locally negative, i.e., heat flows from the mantle to the core. We further investigated the conditions needed for such patches to appear. As one would expect, a larger internal heating excess and a stronger temperature dependence of thermal conductivity both favor the development of negative heat flux patches. However, patches disappear if the piles excess heating gets too large. In this case, heat released in the regular mantle is strongly reduced, allowing plumes generated at the top of piles to extract more heat from these piles. Finally, our simulations predict relatively large CMB heat flux spatial heterogeneity, together with substantial temporal variations in this heterogeneity. Our findings have strong implications for core dynamics. In particular, they support the hypothesis that partial stratification at the top of the core can occur beneath LLSVPs, reconciling geomagnetic and seismic observations. In addition, and based on core dynamics studies, the CMB heat flux heterogeneity and temporal variations predicted by our simulations may play a key role in the occurrence of geomagnetic superchrons.

How to cite: Deschamps, F., Guerrero, J., Amit, H., Terra-nova, F., and Hsieh, W.-P.: Patches of negative core-mantle boundary heat flux: simulations of mantle convection and implications for core dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2141, 2026.

EGU26-2437 | ECS | Orals | GD1.1

Geomagnetic data assimilation utilizing the ensemble Kalman smoother 

Zeng Zhipeng and Lin Yufeng

In data assimilation, smoothers improve estimates of the system state by incorporating future observations. However, in geomagnetic data assimilation, the application of smoothers requires solving complex adjoint operators associated with the full nonlinear MHD equations, and the computation of gradients of the objective function is computationally expensive. Here, we employ the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS), which exploits ensemble-based statistical correlations across different times and thereby avoids the explicit construction of adjoint operators. We evaluate the performance of EnKS using synthetic observation experiments in moderately nonlinear models and compare it with Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The results show that both methods recover similar velocity field structures. EnKS exhibits velocity intensities closer to the reference model and performs better in the recovery of the surface flows. However, EnKS is more sensitive to sampling errors, which lead to filter divergence in the magnetic field. We further examine the impact of model error on EnKS, where the model error only arises from variations in viscous effects. The results show that model error causes the loss recovery of some dominant velocity field modes in the recovered solution and ultimately leads to filter divergence. Overall, our results indicate that EnKS can further improve recovery quality in regimes where EnKF already achieves reasonable performance, but may perform worse in regions strongly affected by sampling errors.

How to cite: Zhipeng, Z. and Yufeng, L.: Geomagnetic data assimilation utilizing the ensemble Kalman smoother, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2437, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2437, 2026.

EGU26-2575 | Orals | GD1.1

Ancient geodynamo driven by lunar tides beneath a basal magma ocean 

Richard F. Katz, Murray B.C. Kiernan, Hamish C.F.C. Hay, David W. Rees Jones, and James F.J. Bryson

Dynamo action in Earth's liquid-iron core has generated a magnetic field for at least 3.4 billion years. Prior the onset of solidification that formed the inner core at about 1 Ga, the energy source driving the geodynamo is unknown. Contemporaneously, the bottom of the mantle may have been fully molten, forming a basal magma ocean. We propose that the boundary between this silicate magma and the immiscible, liquid core was susceptible to tides driven by the Moon’s gravity. We present theoretical predictions for the laminar component of this tidal flow. Our results indicate that a tidal resonance provided enough energy to sustain dynamo action for ~3.5 Gyr by turbulent magnetic induction. Lunar tides may thus have played a key role in generating Earth's ancient magnetic field, which shielded early life from solar radiation.

How to cite: Katz, R. F., Kiernan, M. B. C., Hay, H. C. F. C., Rees Jones, D. W., and Bryson, J. F. J.: Ancient geodynamo driven by lunar tides beneath a basal magma ocean, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2575, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2575, 2026.

Slab pull has come to be widely regarded as a dominant driver of plate motions. The nature of slab–plate coupling is typically conceptualised in terms of the Orowan–Elsasser stress-guide model, in which the capacity of the slab to support a differential stress results in a tension-like force transmitted through the subduction hinge, providing an edge force on the trailing plate. Meanwhile, advances in geodynamic modelling now allow subduction to be simulated using increasingly Earth-like constitutive behaviour and, critically, permit the internal force balance to be examined explicitly. While the forces driving tectonic plates on Earth remain debated, the force balance within any given numerical model should be unambiguous.  I discuss results from a vertically integrated horizontal force balance applied to a suite of numerical subduction models. I focus on a particularly useful decomposition that highlights the role of topographic (or gravitational potential energy–related) forces, including ridge push, plate tilting driven by asthenospheric pressure gradients, and—critically—the influence of non-isostatic trench topography. Each of these topographic forces can be expressed in terms of differences in the integrated vertical normal stress - a proxy for the topographic-related pressure gradients in the boundary layer. The trench topographic force,   or trench pull force, is of special interest because it mediates the coupling between predominantly vertical loading imparted by the slab and a horizontal force (pressure gradient) acting on the trailing plate.  Numerical models suggest that a tension-like formulation of net slab pull plays at most a secondary role. Instead, it is primarily through the trench topographic force (trench pull) that the slab induces a net horizontal force on the trailing plate. Numerical models provide a direct means to isolate, compare, and quantify the trench topographic force relative to a tension-like edge force, and to establish quantitative bounds that can guide future analytical investigation of trench topographic forces. 

How to cite: Sandiford, D.: Re-examining Slab Pull: Trench Topography and Trailing Plate Force Balance in Numerical Subduction Models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2649, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2649, 2026.

EGU26-2743 | Orals | GD1.1

Physics of the flattening of ocean floor depth and heat flow records 

Olga Aryasova and Yakov Khazan

Oceanic lithospheric plates form from hot mantle material ascending along the axis of mid-ocean ridges (MORs). As newly formed lithosphere moves away from the ridge, it cools from the surface, leading to progressive deepening of the ocean floor due to thermal contraction and to a decrease in surface heat flow. Turcotte and Oxburgh (1967) proposed a model in which the lithosphere is treated as a cooling half-space with a uniform initial temperature and purely conductive heat transport. Assuming constant thermophysical properties, this model predicts that heat flow and seafloor depth vary linearly with age¹² and age¹², respectively. Observations of ocean floor topography and heat flow follow these trends up to ages of approximately 50–60 Myr. For older lithosphere, however, the agreement breaks down: observed heat flow is higher and seafloor depth is shallower than predicted by the half-space model.

Several models have been proposed to account for this discrepancy, but all of them are purely kinematic in nature. For example, the widely used “plate model” assumes that temperature is fixed at a certain depth within the mantle. At young ages, the solution coincides with the half-space model, whereas at greater ages it asymptotically approaches the prescribed basal temperature. Although both the basal temperature and the depth of the thermal boundary can be adjusted to fit observations, no known physical mechanism can sustain the boundary condition assumed by this model.

In contrast, we demonstrate that a rheological instability developing within the cooled upper part of the lithospheric plate explains the observations both qualitatively and quantitatively. The key point is that such an instability inevitably arises in a plate cooled from above. Our quantitative analysis is based on experimentally determined non-Newtonian rock viscosity (Hirth and Kohlstedt, 2003) and on the formulation of the Rayleigh number for Arrhenius-type rheology (Solomatov, 1995; Korenaga, 2009). We show that the characteristic Rayleigh number of the instability increases as surface heat flow decreases. Owing to the strong temperature dependence of viscosity, only the lower part of the cooled lithosphere is potentially unstable. For a given heat flow, the thickness of this deformable layer is self-consistently determined by the condition of maximum Rayleigh number. Once the Rayleigh number reaches its critical value, an instability develops that supplies heat to the oceanic lithosphere, inhibits further cooling, and results in the observed flattening of heat flow and seafloor depth records with age.

How to cite: Aryasova, O. and Khazan, Y.: Physics of the flattening of ocean floor depth and heat flow records, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2743, 2026.

EGU26-3465 | Orals | GD1.1

Core-surface kinematic control of polarity reversals in advanced geodynamo simulations 

Julien Aubert, Maylis Landeau, Alexandre Fournier, and Thomas Gastine

The geomagnetic field has undergone hundreds of polarity reversals over Earth's history, at a variable pace. In numerical models of Earth's core dynamics, reversals occur with increasing frequency when the convective forcing is increased past a critical level. This transition has previously been related to the influence of inertia in the force balance. Because this force is subdominant in Earth's core, concerns have been raised regarding the geophysical applicability of this paradigm. Reproducing the reversal rate of the past million years also requires forcing conditions that do not guarantee that the rest of the geomagnetic variation spectrum is reproduced. These issues motivate the search for alternative reversal mechanisms. Using a suite of numerical models where buoyancy is provided at the bottom of the core by inner-core freezing, we show that the magnetic dipole amplitude is controlled by the relative strength of subsurface upwellings and horizontal circulation at the core surface. A relative weakening of upwellings brings the system from a stable to a reversing dipole state. This mechanism is purely kinematic because it operates irrespectively of the interior force balance. It is therefore expected to apply at the physical conditions of Earth's core. Subsurface upwellings may be impeded by stable stratification in the outermost core. We show that with weak stratification levels corresponding to a nearly adiabatic core surface heat flow, a single model reproduces the observed geomagnetic variations ranging from decades to millions of years. In contrast with the existing paradigm, reversals caused by this stable top core mechanism become more frequent when the level of stratification increases i.e. when the core heat flow decreases. This suggests that the link between mantle dynamics and magnetic reversal frequency needs to be reexamined.

How to cite: Aubert, J., Landeau, M., Fournier, A., and Gastine, T.: Core-surface kinematic control of polarity reversals in advanced geodynamo simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3465, 2026.

EGU26-3504 | ECS | Posters on site | GD1.1

Thermal Conductivity of Iron and Iron Alloys at Planetary Core Conditions 

Eric Edmund

The thermal conductivity of iron and iron alloys play a key role in determining how telluric planetary cores cool over time. The thermal conductivity of core-forming alloys is needed to establish the heat budget for core and mantle processes. This budget in turn controls the characteristics of core and mantle dynamics, as well as the geologic timescales over which they are active. However, there is little consensus on the effect of composition on the thermal conductivity of iron at conditions relevant to planetary interiors. Here I present the results of recent experimental investigations to understand how the thermal conductivity varies for iron and iron alloys varies at extreme pressures and temperatures, providing quantitative insight into the transport properties of core-forming alloys.

How to cite: Edmund, E.: Thermal Conductivity of Iron and Iron Alloys at Planetary Core Conditions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3504, 2026.

Sub-plate mantle flow traction (MFT) has been considered as a major driving force for plate motion; however, the force acting on the overlying plate is difficult to constrain. One of the reasons lies in the variable rheological flow laws of mantle rocks, e.g. linear versus power-law rheology, applied in previous studies. Here, systematic numerical models are conducted to evaluate MFT under variable rheological, geometrical and kinematic conditions. The results indicate that MFT with power-law rheology is much lower than that with linear rheology under the same mantle/plate velocity contrast. In addition, existence of a lithospheric root in the overlying plate could enhance MFT, where integrated normal force acting on the vertical walls of lithospheric root is much lower than the shear force in a large-scale domain. In a regime of several thousand kilometers, MFT with power-law rheology is comparable to the ridge push of about 3×1012N/m, whereas that with linear rheology is comparable to the slab pull of about 3×1013 N/m. The roles of MFT in driving plate motion are further analyzed for the Tethyan evolution. It indicates that MFT with power-law rheology could partially support the cyclic Wilson cycles experienced in the Tethyan system, whereas that with linear rheology could easily dominate any kinds of plate tectonic evolutions. The quantitative evaluation of MFT in this study clarifies the roles of rheological flow laws on MFT and could help to better understand the contrasting results in previous numerical studies.

How to cite: Cui, F., Li, Z.-H., and Fu, H.-Y.: Quantitative evaluation of mantle flow traction on overlying tectonic plate: Linear versus power-law mantle rheology, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3641, 2026.

Subduction is considered the primary driver of plate tectonics, which is sometimes accompanied by back-arc spreading. Back-arc deformation on Earth exhibits substantial variability, ranging from compressional regimes in the Japan Sea to rapid spreading with rates up to 15 cm/yr in the Lau Basin. Even within a single subduction zone, back-arc basins can exhibit significant spatial and temporal variability in spreading rates along the trench. The mechanisms underlying this variability remain inadequately understood. To address this issue, we compiled global back-arc deformation rates and quantified slab area penetration into the deeper mantle. Additionally, we conducted a series of numerical simulations to elucidate the factors that govern back-arc deformation rate. Our global back-arc compilation and numerical models reveals a robust negative correlation between back-arc spreading rate and slab penetration into the deeper mantle, highlighting the initial stage of subduction as the peak phase of back-arc spreading. Furthermore, numerical simulations offer insights into the underlying dynamic mechanisms, demonstrating that slab-driven poloidal flow play a dominant role in governing back-arc deformation rates.

How to cite: Jian, H.: Evolution of slab-driven poloidal flow symmetry governs back-arc deformation rates, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3957, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3957, 2026.

EGU26-4040 | ECS | Posters on site | GD1.1

Global Mapping of Small-Scale Heterogeneities at the Core-Mantle Boundary: Insights from Deep Learning Analysis of PKP Precursors 

Yurui Guan, Juan Li, Zhuowei Xiao, Wei Wang, and Tao Xu

Small-scale lateral heterogeneities at the lowermost mantle are fundamental to understanding mantle convection dynamics and core-mantle interactions. PKP precursors, generated by seismic scattering from fine-scale structures near the core-mantle boundary (CMB), provide a powerful yet underutilized probe for imaging deep Earth heterogeneities. However, the manual identification of these weak signals is inefficient, subjective, and inadequate for the vast volumes of modern seismic data.
We present a comprehensive analysis of global PKP precursor observations using a supervised deep learning framework combined with iterative human-guided optimization. Processing over 2 million vertical-component waveforms from earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6.0) recorded between 1990 and 2024, we automatically identified 227,770 high-quality PKP precursor signals—an order of magnitude increase compared to previous global compilations. This unprecedented dataset, termed DeepScatter-PKP, provides the densest and most spatially complete observational foundation for characterizing CMB scattering structures to date.
To systematically evaluate the stability and spatial distribution of scattering signals, we developed a dual-probability framework integrating precursor occurrence probability (Pocc) and scatterer location probability (Pscat). This approach enables simultaneous assessment of broad-area scattering stability and precise localization of strong scatterers. Our significantly enhanced sampling density and coverage connect previously isolated scattering patches into continuous anomaly belts, notably beneath the Pan-American region and the western Pacific margin.
Cross-validation with independent seismic phases confirms the robust embedding of multiple ultra-low velocity zones (ULVZs) within diverse velocity heterogeneity backgrounds, suggesting thermochemical origins involving remnants of multi-episode subducted slabs, partial melting, and interactions with large low-velocity provinces (LLVPs). Extension to undersampled regions reveals six previously unidentified high-potential strong scattering zones, including beneath the South Atlantic, high-latitude Eurasia, and circum-Antarctic domains.
Our results demonstrate that small-scale scatterers occur in both high-velocity and low-velocity domains, highlighting the diversity and independence of their origins beyond LLSVP boundaries. The DeepScatter-PKP dataset and dual-probability framework establish priority targets for future multi-phase joint inversions and high-resolution CMB imaging, offering new constraints on the thermochemical state and dynamic evolution of Earth's deep interior.

How to cite: Guan, Y., Li, J., Xiao, Z., Wang, W., and Xu, T.: Global Mapping of Small-Scale Heterogeneities at the Core-Mantle Boundary: Insights from Deep Learning Analysis of PKP Precursors, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4040, 2026.

EGU26-4065 | ECS | Posters on site | GD1.1

Signal separation of temporal gravity signals for low-amplitude signal detection 

Darsana Lekshmy Raj, Roland Pail, and Betty Heller-Kaikov

Lithospheric uplift, once attributed mainly to plate tectonic and isostatic processes, is now recognized to be strongly influenced by convective processes in the Earth's mantle. Advances in satellite observations and data analysis have strengthened geodetic constraints on geodynamic models, specifically through satellite gravimetry. However, the superposition of mass change signals driven by different Earth processes requires robust signal separation to quantify the contributions of individual processes in the data.

Signal separation is a fundamental challenge in geodetic datasets, which commonly represent the superposition of multiple physical signals. Previous studies have explored isolating solid-Earth signals due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) [1] applying a neural network–based signal separation method to simulated temporal gravity data. The neural network (NN) was trained to recognize and separate individual signal components by exploiting prior knowledge about their characteristic spatiotemporal behavior, derived from forward-modeled time-variable gravity data and additional constraints.

The employed NN architecture is a multi-channel U-Net designed to separate superimposed temporal gravity signals arising from mass redistribution in the atmosphere and oceans, continental hydrosphere, cryosphere, and solid Earth. The network separates these combined inputs into their constituent sub-components. The framework is generally applicable to signal separation in any three-axis dataset (e.g., latitude, longitude, and time), using a sampling strategy in which the data are partitioned along one axis to determine the optimal two-axis combination for training [2].

This work presents progress towards extracting signals originating from deep-Earth processes, particularly mantle convection signals, from time-variable gravity data such as observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE-Follow on (GRACE-FO) satellite missions. In this context, NN-based signal separation has been demonstrated primarily for signals with comparably large amplitudes. In contrast, time-variable gravity signals caused by processes in the Earth's mantle are approximately three orders of magnitude weaker than signals related to surface processes, rendering their detection and separation particularly challenging. The current study therefore focuses on enhancing sensitivity to low-amplitude mantle signals by leveraging the ability of machine learning methodologies to learn subtle spatiotemporal patterns.

For application to real data from the GRACE/-FO missions or the upcoming Mass-Change and Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC), we propose training the framework on representative forward-modeled signals and simulated noise and subsequently applying the trained separation model to observational time-variable gravity data.

 

References:

  • Heller-Kaikov B, Karimi H, Lekshmy Raj D, Pail R, Hugentobler U, Werner M. 2025 Signal separation in geodetic observations: satellite gravimetry. Proc. R. Soc. A 481: 20240820.
  • Heller-Kaikov B, Pail R, Werner M. 2025, Neural network-based framework for signal separation in spatio-temporal gravity data Computers & Geosciences, Volume 207, 2026, 106057, ISSN 0098-3004.

How to cite: Lekshmy Raj, D., Pail, R., and Heller-Kaikov, B.: Signal separation of temporal gravity signals for low-amplitude signal detection, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4065, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4065, 2026.

EGU26-4320 | ECS | Posters on site | GD1.1

Stable continental-scale drainage of North America reveals hydrated upper mantle anomaly due to long-lived oceanic subduction  

Xi Jin, Lijun Liu, Zebin Cao, Hao Dong, Rong Yang, Alison M Anders, and Chunyang Gao

Seismic tomography provides critical insights into Earth’s evolution, yet the origin of deep-mantle seismic velocity anomalies—particularly slow anomalies—remains debated. Here we constrain the nature of the slow anomalies within the mantle transition zone (MTZ) beneath eastern North America by quantifying their dynamic impact on continental-scale drainage evolution and offshore sedimentation since the Miocene using coupled mantle–surface process modeling. We show that reproducing the observed stability of the Mississippi River basin, the long-term subsidence of the eastern North American margin, and the sedimentary record of the Gulf of Mexico requires a dynamic-topography scenario consistent with neutral net buoyancy of these slow anomalies. Independent geophysical observations further support this interpretation: the MTZ slow anomalies spatially correlate with the remnant Farallon slab within the lower mantle, and coincide with regions of elevated electrical conductivity. This implies that the slow seismic anomalies beneath eastern North America are best explained by hydratedcompositional heterogeneity associated with long-lived Farallon subduction, rather than by a purely thermal origin. Our results further support regional buoyancy compensation, in which dense melts above the MTZ are offset by buoyant hydrous and/or thermal contributions, yielding neutral buoyancy at long wavelengths despite strong seismic velocity reduction. Finally, the predicted trajectories of subducted slabs and mantle flow from data assimilation models indicate that the MTZ slow anomalies mostly likely represent dehydration of the Mesozoic Farallon slab within the lower mantle, providing a long-lived source ofmantle volatile circulation.

How to cite: Jin, X., Liu, L., Cao, Z., Dong, H., Yang, R., Anders, A. M., and Gao, C.: Stable continental-scale drainage of North America reveals hydrated upper mantle anomaly due to long-lived oceanic subduction , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4320, 2026.

I present the results of a series of numerical experiments, based on a visco-elasto-plastic rheological model of the lithosphere, aimed at studying the interplay between mantle convection and tectonic processes at continental margins. In these experiments, the reference thermal states of the oceanic and continental lithospheres are described by a plate cooling model and by the solutions of the steady heat equation, respectively, while a small non-adiabatic temperature gradient is assumed for the asthenosphere and transition zone. The resulting thermo-mechanical model incorporates both vertical (Rayleigh-Benard) and horizontal (small-scale) convection and allows to predict the state of stress across continental margins, as well as some tectonic processes that are observed in these regions. Small-scale convection arises from lateral temperature gradients. It always develops along passive margins, where the thermal regime of the oceanic lithosphere meets the downward-dipping isotherms of the continental lithosphere. This form of horizontal convection has the potential to deform the lower part of the continental lithosphere, generate Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities, and produce up to ~50 MPa of compressional stress across continental margins. The formation of Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities is accompanied by lithospheric thinning, which in turn induces negative thermal anomalies that contribute to the maintenance of isostatic equilibrium by increasing the density of the residual lithosphere. These anomalies propagate towards the interior of the continental lithosphere, until the increased rheological strength associated with lower temperatures is sufficient to prevent further delamination. Therefore, the lower continental lithosphere is always colder than predicted by steady-state solutions of the heat equation. Basal landward traction along passive margins, resulting from small-scale convection, is further enhanced when the oceanic lithosphere adjacent to the continental margin is bounded by a spreading ridge. In this instance, numerical experiments consistently show the existence of an active spreading component, up to 5 mm/yr, which generates additional traction below the continental margins and contributes to a compressive stress regime in these regions. Consequently, a net horizontal landward push develops along the continental margins of a tectonic plate, which combines with other driving forces to determine the plate kinematics. Finally, numerical experiments show that non-adiabatic vertical temperature gradients drive the formation of Rayleigh-Benard convective cells with a wavelength of 600-700 km and a height 500-600 km.

How to cite: Schettino, A.: Sea-floor spreading, small-scale convection, and passive margins: Interplay and effect on the driving forces of Plate Tectonics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4362, 2026.

EGU26-4939 | ECS | Posters on site | GD1.1

Mapping geological hiatus using a manual and a digital approach: A case study from China 

Berta Vilacís, Sara Carena, Jorge N. Hayek, Gabriel Robl, Hans-Peter Bunge, and Jincheng Ma

Dynamic topography is a crucial geodynamic observable that emerges as a consequence of flow in the mantle. Buoyancies associated with mantle convection induce vertical deflections at the Earth's surface. Negative surface deflections create depositional environments and allow sedimentation to occur, while positive surface deflections create erosional/non-depositional environments, that induce gaps (hiatuses) in the geological record. The temporal and spatial extent of these gaps can be mapped using geological maps and regional studies, thus providing a means of tracking mantle processes through geological time.
Here, we compare a manual and digital extraction of hiatus distributions in China. We utilise a manually compiled dataset of un/conformable contacts and compare it to a digital contact extraction using the recently published digital geological map of China. The digital approach is limited to surface data, whereas the manual approach allows the utilisation of subsurface information. We find that the digital approach is substantially faster than the manual extraction. Our results indicate that the optimal methodology combines digital processing with refinement of manual subsurface information. Furthermore, we observe that mapping the absence and presence of a geological series shows very similar results when processed using either approach. The current limitation to a wider application of this approach is the limited availability of digital geological maps. A standardised digital database of geological maps enhanced with subsurface information (i.e., covered geological maps) is necessary to promote the use of geological data within the wider Earth science community, and would increase the opportunities for interdisciplinary collaboration.

How to cite: Vilacís, B., Carena, S., Hayek, J. N., Robl, G., Bunge, H.-P., and Ma, J.: Mapping geological hiatus using a manual and a digital approach: A case study from China, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4939, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4939, 2026.

EGU26-5753 | ECS | Posters on site | GD1.1

First results for experiments on inner core attenuation 

Léo Carin, Sanjay Manda, Efim Kolesnikov, Julien Chantel, Nadège Hilairet, and Sébastien Merkel

The Earth’s inner core is made of a solid iron alloy. Seismic observations suggest a structure and an anisotropy which leads to variations in both the velocity and the attenuation of the seismic waves. Attenuation is the loss of energy during the propagation of the seismic waves. Whether this attenuation arises from intrinsic properties of the iron alloys or extrinsic origins remains an open question. In this context, studying attenuation in metallic alloys could help improving our knowledge about the physical properties and the geodynamic of the inner core.

Extrinsic attenuation is linked to external environment that impact the wave propagation, such as scattering or heterogeneities. Intrinsic sources are related to the properties of the material itself such as its viscoelastic behavior. This work focuses on the latter and particularly on the anelastic relaxation, which is one of the sources of internal friction.

In this work, we seek to understand attenuation mechanisms in metals at high temperature. The experiments are conducted on a dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) instrument with control of temperature and oxygen fugacity albeit at ambient pressure. We use a Mg alloy as analogous material to that of the inner core, which presents similar crystallographic structure and is expected to behave the same way.

Here, we will present some results and hypotheses derived from temperature, frequency, and strain sweeps realized with DMA. These analyses allow us to investigate viscoelastic values like internal friction, storage and loss modulus at different conditions. Results show a temperature-dependent behavior that can be related to the underlying mechanisms. Scanning electron microscopy analyses (electron back scattered diffraction) were performed to further assess the attenuation mechanisms involved in our experiments. Grain size, texture or grain boundaries were analyzed to understand our analogous material. These experiments are led in conditions which could allow us to discuss attenuation in the inner core.

How to cite: Carin, L., Manda, S., Kolesnikov, E., Chantel, J., Hilairet, N., and Merkel, S.: First results for experiments on inner core attenuation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5753, 2026.

EGU26-5754 | ECS | Posters on site | GD1.1

Understanding Relaxation Mechanisms in Metals: Application to Earth’s Inner Core  

Sanjay Manda, Léo Carin, Efim Kolesnikov, Julien Chantel, Nadege Hilairet, and Sébastien Merkel

The majority of metallic materials exhibit viscoelastic or anelastic behavior when subjected to elastic cyclic loading under specific temperature and frequency conditions. This anelastic nature is commonly characterized by the dissipation or loss of mechanical energy, manifested as a hysteresis loop between stress-strain signals. The energy loss is quantified by the loss tangent (tanδ) or the inverse of quality factor (Q-1). The origin of this dissipation is associated with internal variables, particularly the microstructure, and this phenomenon is referred to as internal friction. The microstructures are inherently complex, and their overall response is governed by multiple factors such as solute type and content, crystallographic texture, dislocation density, residual stresses, and grain boundary characteristics. Consequently, any modification in microstructure directly influences the internal friction behavior. Additionally, the operating temperature and imposed frequency strongly affect the magnitude of  tanδ. This work provides a comprehensive summary of the role of microstructural parameters on the viscoelastic behavior of various metals over a wide range of length and time scales and over an extensive temperature range.

Subsequently, the understanding of internal friction in metallic materials is extended to the earth’s inner core. It is well established that inner core exists under extreme conditions, with very high temperatures (~5700 K) and extremely high pressures (~330 GPa). Under such conditions, reliable estimates of seismic wave dissipation or attenuation are not readily available. At same time, the underlying mechanisms governing seismic wave propagation remain unclear. This study provides a summary and proposes plausible attenuation mechanisms in the earth’s inner core over a range of testing conditions. These are supported by dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) experiments and atomistic simulations. 

 

How to cite: Manda, S., Carin, L., Kolesnikov, E., Chantel, J., Hilairet, N., and Merkel, S.: Understanding Relaxation Mechanisms in Metals: Application to Earth’s Inner Core , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5754, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5754, 2026.

EGU26-5779 | ECS | Orals | GD1.1

Implications of post-perovskite on the density of lowermost mantle structures based on geoid and core-mantle boundary topography observations 

Justin Leung, Andrew M. Walker, Paula Koelemeijer, and D. Rhodri Davies

The origin of the two large low-velocity provinces (LLVPs) remains debated today. The debate has often focused on their density, which can provide us insight into their origin. For example, if LLVPs were long-lived features, they would require a higher intrinsic density (the difference in density to the background mantle under the same temperature and pressure) than their surroundings to negate their positive thermal buoyancy and to remain physically stable at the base of the mantle for billions of years. Better constraints on the origin of LLVPs would provide further insight into dynamic processes at the lower boundary of the mantle. This has implications for how the deep mantle impacts Earth’s surface.

Long-wavelength observations of the geoid and core-mantle boundary (CMB) topography are particularly sensitive to the lowermost mantle. These observables have therefore been used to infer the density of LLVPs, often attributing a higher intrinsic density, if any, to chemical heterogeneity. Yet, many of these studies have not jointly considered the effects of chemical composition with the transition from bridgmanite to post-perovskite on lowermost mantle density. This phase transition is associated with a 1-2% increase in density, but occurs primarily in cold regions, thus impacting the amplitude and spatial patterns of the geoid and CMB topography. Therefore, the presence of post-perovskite can affect inferences of LLVP chemical composition and density from geodetic observables. It is therefore important to take the presence of post-perovskite into account when inferring LLVP density and chemical composition from geoid and CMB topography observations.      

Here, we investigate the geodetic signatures expected from a range of scenarios related to the distribution of post-perovskite within different models of lowermost mantle temperature and composition. We calculate synthetic density fields from existing temperature and compositional fields as predicted by geodynamic simulations and a recent thermodynamic database. These density fields are then convolved with kernels derived from models of instantaneous mantle flow to obtain synthetic geodetic observables. We show that the effect of a higher post-perovskite density alone produces a comparable effect to chemical heterogeneity on the geoid and CMB topography. This implies that the effects of post-perovskite need to be taken into account when modelling dynamic processes and inferring physical properties in the deep mantle.

How to cite: Leung, J., Walker, A. M., Koelemeijer, P., and Davies, D. R.: Implications of post-perovskite on the density of lowermost mantle structures based on geoid and core-mantle boundary topography observations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5779, 2026.

EGU26-6077 | ECS | Orals | GD1.1

Resolving the Iron Phase Stability Debate in Earth's Inner Core: A Consistent Thermodynamic Benchmark 

Hua Yang, Lei Wan, Yunguo Li, Lidunka Vočadlo, and John Brodholt

Understanding the stable phase of iron under Earth's inner core conditions is fundamental to interpreting its composition, evolution, and dynamics. Despite its importance, the stability of candidate phases (e.g., bcc, fcc, hcp) remains contentious due to the extreme pressure-temperature conditions and the meagre free energy differences (~10 meV/atom) between them. This has resulted in conflicting predictions from ab initio, force field, and machine learning approaches. To resolve this discrepancy, we introduce a Bain-path thermodynamic integration (BP-TI) method that directly computes free energy differences from the work performed by internal stress along a transformation path. This approach eliminates the need for an external reference system and avoids the uncertainties associated with conventional entropy calculations. Applying this rigorous benchmark with strict convergence criteria, we find that hcp Fe is the thermodynamically stable phase with the highest melting temperature under inner core conditions. In contrast, bcc Fe is consistently shown to be metastable across all tested interatomic potentials and computational methods. This metastability is intrinsic, persisting independent of simulation cell size and thus is not a finite-size artifact. Our findings reconcile previous disparities and provide a robust thermodynamic foundation for future studies of inner-core properties and dynamics.

How to cite: Yang, H., Wan, L., Li, Y., Vočadlo, L., and Brodholt, J.: Resolving the Iron Phase Stability Debate in Earth's Inner Core: A Consistent Thermodynamic Benchmark, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6077, 2026.

EGU26-6533 | ECS | Posters on site | GD1.1

High‑Spin Antiferromagnetic B1‑Phase FeO: Implications for the Martian Inner core 

Zhongxu Pan, Wenzhong Wang, and Zhongqing Wu

Seismic data from the InSight mission reveal that Mars possesses a structure comprising a crust, mantle, and core, with recent studies indicating the existence of a solid inner core. While the composition of the inner core of Mars remains unclear, but some scholars argue that it might be FeO and/or Fe3C. Here, the thermoelastic properties of high‑spin antiferromagnetic B1‑phase FeO was derived from first‑principles calculations, and the composition of the core was inverted by combining with the previous experimental data. Additionally, the possible light element components in the Martian outer core have also been restricted. These results provide a new starting point for the composition of the Martian core and might have implications for understanding the chemical composition and magnetic evolution of the Mars.

How to cite: Pan, Z., Wang, W., and Wu, Z.: High‑Spin Antiferromagnetic B1‑Phase FeO: Implications for the Martian Inner core, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6533, 2026.

EGU26-6558 | ECS | Orals | GD1.1

Constraining iron content in the lower mantle through electrical conductivity of bridgmanite 

Kui Han, Sinan Özaydın, Hongzhan Fei, Lianjie Man, Fei Wang, Artem Chanyshev, Anthony Withers, Alexander Grayver, and Tomoo Katsura

Iron content in the lower mantle significantly influences mineral density and mantle convection dynamics. Electrical conductivity, an important physical property of minerals and rocks, is highly sensitive to iron content. Ground-based and satellite geomagnetic observations reveal radial and lateral variations in electrical conductivity in the lower mantle, where some conductive anomalies are up to one order of magnitude higher than the ambient mantle. However, the poorly understood quantitative correlation between iron content and electrical conductivity hinders our ability to decipher the composition of the lower mantle. We systematically measured the electrical conductivity of Al-bearing bridgmanite, the most abundant mineral in the lower mantle, as a function of iron content (XFe= 0.1–0.37) at 27 GPa and temperatures up to 2000 K, corresponding to conditions in the uppermost lower mantle. Our results demonstrate that bridgmanite conductivity increases substantially with iron content while exhibiting minimal temperature dependence. This remarkable sensitivity of bridgmanite conductivity to iron content enables us to constrain the iron content of the lower mantle through geomagnetic observations.

How to cite: Han, K., Özaydın, S., Fei, H., Man, L., Wang, F., Chanyshev, A., Withers, A., Grayver, A., and Katsura, T.: Constraining iron content in the lower mantle through electrical conductivity of bridgmanite, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6558, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6558, 2026.

High-frequency seismic scattered waves provide unique sensitivity to small-scale heterogeneity in the lowermost mantle and at the core mantle boundary (CMB), but their interpretation is challenged by wavefront healing and the huge cost of full-waveform simulations at frequencies above about 1 Hz. We evaluate the precision of radiative transfer equation (RTE) modelling compared with wave equation (WE) modelling to establish a basis for future coupled RTE-WE approaches to high-frequency seismic scattering at the CMB.

We have used the RTE based on the Monte Carlo method to efficiently simulate the global transport of seismic energy with a 1D spherical symmetrical model and reproduced scattered waves, such as PKP precursors and Pdiff coda. Now, WE simulations are employed in localised CMB domains to resolve deterministic wave structure interactions, including scattering, interference, and diffraction. Forward models are constructed from the CMB and D” layer, including layered structures, CMB topography, ultra-low velocity zones, and distributed volumetric heterogeneity. We analyse full waveform simulations in terms of their associated energy distributions and envelopes, and explore how these waveform-derived quantities can be related to seismic intensities modelled by RTE under different structural cases. This framework provides a way toward coupling RTE simulations with WE modelling in further studies, enabling detailed investigation of CMB structure using localised wave equation modelling while substantially reducing the computational cost of global high-frequency simulations.

How to cite: Zhang, T. and Sens-Schönfelder, C.: High-Frequency Seismic Scattering at the Core Mantle Boundary: Insights from Radiative Transfer Equation and Wave Equation Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7762, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7762, 2026.

The emergence of plate-like surface motion in self-consistent mantle convection models is a key behaviour requiring detection in numerical experiment results featuring terrestrial characteristics. However, the identification and verification of candidate plates is a challenging task, in practice. On Earth, narrow divergent, convergent, and strike-slip plate boundaries as well as regions exhibiting widespread diffuse deformation, comprise roughly 10 to 20% of the lithosphere that does not adhere to rigid body motion. Accordingly, the detection of candidate plates must be performed in light of the existence of diffuse deformation occurring regularly as a tectonic characteristic. To address this challenge, we have recently developed a new plate detection tool, `platerecipy`, that utilizes the Random Walker (RW) segmentation algorithm to identify candidate plates in both mantle convection model output as well as global geophysical data sets and terrestrial measurements. We describe how the discrete probability solution arising from RW can be used to both assess confidence in the association of each location with a distinct rigid plate, and to identify diffuse surface regions. Furthermore, we show how utilizing the RW probabilities can significantly improve Euler vector inversion for fitting the plate motion as a probability field allows for a systematic means of incorporating uncertainties inherent to the plate detection process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by applying it to the surface of a mantle convection model and a terrestrial strain-rate dataset. We show how our findings can be used for an Euler vector inversion that allows plate rigidity analysis.

How to cite: Javaheri, P. and Lowman, J.: Implementing Platerecipy: an open access tool utilizing a graph theory method for detecting tectonic plate boundaries in geophysical data sets and numerical model output, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8360, 2026.

EGU26-8727 | ECS | Posters on site | GD1.1

Geodynamic Validation and Scalability of TerraNeo: Matrix-Free Mantle Convection Framework 

Ponsuganth Ilangovan, Gabriel Robl, Fatemeh Rezaei, Berta Vilacis, Andreas Burkhart, Nils Kohl, Marcus Mohr, and Hans-Peter Bunge

Mantle convection models are of utmost importance in understanding the physics governing major geological processes of our planet such as earthquakes, mountain building, etc. The TerraNeo framework is focussed on creating extreme-scale high-resolution geodynamic models which it achieves
with the massively parallel matrix-free finite element package HyTeG. To handle the Stokes system which arises from the conservation of mass and
momentum equations, a multigrid preconditioned Krylov subspace solver is used, whereas to handle the advection term in the conservation of energy
equation, an operator splitting approach based on the modified method of characteristics (particles) is used.

We first present standard numerical benchmark experiments for geodynamic validation of the framework against other community codes. In addition, we verify order of convergence of error in velocity and pressure against highly accurate solutions for the Stokes system computed with the propagator matrix method for radially varying viscosity and density cases. Next, a mantle circulation model with spatially varying physical parameters (viscosity and density) and assimilated plate velocities is simulated from a past physical state to present day and assessed for geodynamic correctness. Finally, we present scalability studies performed on the supercomputer SuperMUC-NG Phase 1 at LRZ (91st in TOP500, Nov’ 25). In these experiments, we were able to scale the framework to a global model resolution of ≃ 7.5 km on > 300, 000 MPI processes. These results combined with the numerical benchmarking of the framework clearly show that TerraNeo is well suited for creating large-scale geodynamic models.

How to cite: Ilangovan, P., Robl, G., Rezaei, F., Vilacis, B., Burkhart, A., Kohl, N., Mohr, M., and Bunge, H.-P.: Geodynamic Validation and Scalability of TerraNeo: Matrix-Free Mantle Convection Framework, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8727, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8727, 2026.

Cratons such as the Guiana Shield are often considered as stable regions, undergoing long-term emergence and denudation due to buoyancy. However, by integrating geological and geomorphological observations with apatite fission-track analysis, we define a history involving repeated episodes of burial and exhumation over the last 500 Myr.

Over much of the shield, the thermal history is dominated by the effects of earliest Jurassic magmatism, followed by Early Cretaceous exhumation coincident with the onset of seafloor spreading in the southern South Atlantic when South America was driven westward by mantle flow from the hot, upwelling upper mantle in the southeast toward the downwelling, pre-Andean subduction zone in the west.

Further episodes of regional exhumation occurred in Aptian-Albian time coincident with a global-scale plate reorganization and in Eocene times coincident with a slowdown in the movement of the South American plate. Results from the Amazon Basin also define these four episodes.

Thermal data from a deep well in the Amazon Basin show that the Early Cretaceous and Eocene exhumation episodes were preceded by burial by kilometre-scale thicknesses of cover, subsequently removed. Continuity of data from basin to shield suggests that burial extended across the shield. Early Cretaceous exhumation led to formation of a base-Cretaceous peneplain across the entire continent, from the Andes (during post-orogenic collapse) to the Amazon Basin and the Guiana Shield. This peneplain was then buried beneath Cretaceous–Paleogene sediments prior to the onset of Eocene exhumation, which also extended into in the offshore. The Eocene episode also correlates with post-orogenic collapse of the Andes.

Miocene exhumation correlates with a regional, late Miocene unconformity, onshore and offshore, coincident with a slowdown in the movement of the South American plate. This episode resulted in the formation of a vast coastal planation surface, along the Guyanas Atlantic margin and in the incision of the present-day valley along the Amazon River, leading to the reversal of the Amazon River.

The history of repeated burial and exhumation defined for the Guiana Shield appears to be a common property of supposedly stable cratons. The correlation between Andean tectonics, episodes of exhumation and changes in the motion of the South American plate, shows that sub-lithospheric forces and intra-plate stress governed the vertical movements across the continent.

 

References

Baby et al., 2025. The Northern Central Andes and Andean tectonic evolution revisited: an integrated stratigraphic and structural model of three superimposed orogens. Earth Sci. Rev. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. earscirev.2024.104998

Japsen et al., 2025. Ups and downs of the Guiana Shield and Amazon Basin over the last 500 Myr. Gondw. Res. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2025.06.020

Stotz et al., 2023. Plume driven plate motion changes: New insights from the South Atlantic realm. J. S. Am. Earth Sci. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsames.2023.104257

Szatmari & Milani, 2016. Tectonic control of the oil-rich large igneous-carbonate- salt province of the South Atlantic rift. Mar. Pet. Geol. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2016.06.004

How to cite: Japsen, P., Green, P. F., and Bonow, J. M.: Ups and downs of the Guiana Shield and Amazon Basin driven by sub-lithospheric forces and intra-plate stress, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8912, 2026.

EGU26-9286 | Orals | GD1.1

Upper Mantle Controls on the Phanerozoic Evolution of Western and Central Europe  

Judith Bott, Magdalena Scheck-Wenderoth, Tilman May, and Mauro Cacace

Shear-wave tomography models of the upper mantle below Western and Central Europe are indicative of a thermally very heterogeneous lithosphere-asthenosphere system. High shear-wave velocities indicate a deep 1300 °C isotherm and thus a thick (ca. 200 km) lithosphere in the southwestern North Sea and the Paris Basin. This contrasts with a shallower (< 120 km) lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary across the European Cenozoic Rift System and much of the British Isles. These major, long-wavelength thickness fluctuations of the thermal boundary layer are locally superposed by a number of smaller-scale thermal anomalies reaching into the lithospheric mantle (such as the Eifel mantle thermal anomaly). Previous work indicates that the distribution of earthquakes in this region is related to density and strength variations inside the mantle lithosphere that affect the localization of present-day crustal deformation. With this contribution, we explore and discuss the potential ages of the imaged upper mantle thermal anomalies in an attempt to delineate their roles in the geological past. Thereby we make use of the multiphase tectonic evolution recorded in the overlying sedimentary systems and crystalline crust. To evaluate if and where the upper mantle structure may have controlled Paleozoic to Cenozoic crustal deformation phases, we investigate spatial correlations between upper mantle temperature variations as derived from shear-wave tomography models with major crustal structures of known geological age and tectonic setting. Our new findings provide important observational constraints for geodynamic models of Western and Central Europe – a region affected by glacial isostatic adjustment, foreland orogenic processes as well as extensional and passive margin tectonics.

How to cite: Bott, J., Scheck-Wenderoth, M., May, T., and Cacace, M.: Upper Mantle Controls on the Phanerozoic Evolution of Western and Central Europe , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9286, 2026.

The Hawaiian–Emperor Seamount Chain (HESC) is the longest volcanic island chain in the world, which is formed by the thermal erosion of the Pacific Plate by a hot mantle plume. The HESC has two major characteristics. First, it features an approximately 60° bend formed around 47 million years ago (Ma), giving rise to its distinctive geometry. Second, over the past ~2 million years (Myr), the HESC has developed into two sub-parallel Loa-Kea trends that exhibit markedly different incompatible element and isotopic signatures, resulting in its distinctive geochemical characteristics. The causes of the two features remain vigorously debated. Here, we use global-scale geodynamic models to investigate their formation mechanisms. We find that intra-oceanic subduction systems existed in the North Pacific from the Jurassic to the Eocene, exerting significant influences on Pacific Plate motion and the thermo-chemical evolution of the Hawaiian plume from its generation at the Large Low–Velocity Provinces (LLVPs), to its drift beneath the plate, and finally its structural evolution throughout the mantle.
We quantitatively resolve the relative contributions of Pacific Plate rotation and Hawaiian hotspot drift to the formation of the Hawaiian-Emperor Bend (HEB). We propose that the demise of the Kronotsky intra-oceanic subduction system was the primary driver of a major rotational reorganization of the Pacific Plate at ~47 Ma, which our numerical simulations quantify as a ~30° rotation. Using global mantle convection models, we successfully reproduce the slab structures, the basal thermochemical anomalies including the LLVPs and an intermediate-scale anomaly (the Kamchatka anomaly) beneath the northwestern Pacific, and more importantly the present-day location of the Hawaiian hotspot. Our model predicts a predominantly southwestward migration of hotspot over the past ~80 Myr. This hotspot trajectory is consistent with plate kinematic constraints, but differs substantially from those of earlier geodynamic models that predict a predominantly southward or southeastward hotspot motion. We find the westward component of the hotspot motion is crucial for the formation of HEB. Further analysis suggests that an Late Jurassic-Cretaceous intra-oceanic subduction system in the northeast Pacific provided the forcing necessary to drive this westward hotspot migration. Combined with modeled Pacific Plate motion, we have fully reproduced the observed ~60° HEB. Furthermore, subduction activity in the North Pacific influenced the structural evolution of the Hawaiian plume, triggering a bottom-up splitting of the plume conduit. This splitting generated internal material zoning, which is expressed at the surface as parallel Loa–Kea geochemical trends. These findings not only explain the geometry and geochemistry of the HESC, but also provide insights on the tectonic evolution of the North Pacific.

How to cite: Zhang, J. and Hu, J.: Geometry and Geochemistry of the Hawaiian–Emperor Seamount Chain reproduced by global plate-mantle coupling geodynamic models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9615, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9615, 2026.

EGU26-9724 | Orals | GD1.1

Plume-driven rapid paleo stress field changes in western Europe since Mid-Cretaceous inferred from analytic upper mantle flow models 

Hans-Peter Bunge, Jorge Nicolas Hayek, Ingo Leonardo Stotz, Beth Kahle, and Berta Vilacis

We derive global stress fields through time using an analytical asthenospheric flow estimation that involves plate motions, subduction geometry, and time-variable plume flux. Among these, the most effective way to drive rapid regional stress changes in the continents is by varying plume flux, especially when more than one plume is present, as is the case for Europe. We apply our paleostress model to the case study of western Europe, a region that experienced rapid, substantial, and large-scale lithospheric stress changes in the Late Mesozoic and Cenozoic. We find that the behaviour of pressure-driven asthenosphere flow, resulting from variations in plume flux, dominates the rapidly temporo-spatially varying stress signal. Given the potential causes of stress change in this particular region, we further interpret the tectonic changes in the context of dynamic topography as expressed by the stratigraphic record, shifts in plate motion, paleostress indicators, and past interpretations of the tectonic evolution of Europe. Through this approach we move away from the paradigm of stress changes being driven by plate-boundary or body forces in the lithosphere, and emphasize the active role of the mantle and the importance of interpreting models in relation to multiple process-linked observations.

How to cite: Bunge, H.-P., Hayek, J. N., Stotz, I. L., Kahle, B., and Vilacis, B.: Plume-driven rapid paleo stress field changes in western Europe since Mid-Cretaceous inferred from analytic upper mantle flow models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9724, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9724, 2026.

EGU26-9778 | Orals | GD1.1

Stratigraphic and fission track evidence for the rising Iceland Plume in the Maastrichtian  

James Chalmers, Peter Japsen, and Paul Green

Stratigraphic evidence shows the presence of an unconformity starting at 68 Ma (Maastrichtian) in the Canadian archipelago, on- and off-shore west and north Greenland, in Svalbard, on the Lomonosov Ridge, in East Greenland, on- and off-shore Norway and the Faroe Basin (Japsen et al., 2023). These observations are consistent with interpretation of apatite fission track data in the same areas. We suggest that this unconformity reflects doming above the rising head of the Iceland Plume in the upper mantle and prior to its impact at the base of the lithosphere at 62 Ma, 6 Myr later. These observations are consistent with the predictions of Campbell (2007) who showed evidence that pre-impact doming can become evident 3 to 10 Myr before plume impact, and that the diameter of the dome can be of the order of 1000 to 2000 km.

References.

Campbell, 2007. Testing the plume theory. Chem. Geol. 241, 153–1117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2007.01.024

Japsen, Green, Chalmers, 2023. Synchronous exhumation episodes across Arctic Canada, North Greenland and Svalbard in relation to the Eurekan Orogeny. Gondwana Research, 117, 207-229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2023.01.011

How to cite: Chalmers, J., Japsen, P., and Green, P.: Stratigraphic and fission track evidence for the rising Iceland Plume in the Maastrichtian , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9778, 2026.

EGU26-10169 | ECS | Posters on site | GD1.1

3DSlabs – a global tomography-based upper mantle slab geometry model 

Yi-Wei Chen and Jyun-Ling Wang

Subducting slabs play a fundamental role in controlling mantle circulation, plate motions, and surface tectonics. Global slab geometry models such as Slab2 provide an essential community reference by integrating seismicity to describe the geometry of subduction zones worldwide. In many regions, however, slabs are inferred to extend beyond the depth range of seismicity, motivating the incorporation of complementary constraints from seismic tomography.

Here we introduce 3DSlabs, a new global three-dimensional upper mantle slab geometry model constructed from seismic tomography. Following the workflow of Wu et al. (2016), fast tomographic velocity anomalies are interpreted and mapped into continuous three-dimensional slab surfaces using GOCAD. Unlike automated iso-surfacing, this approach allows complex variations in slab dip and curvature to be represented with high fidelity. Furthermore, by mapping seismic velocity directly onto the slab surfaces, 3DSlabs facilitates the identification and tracking of subducted buoyancy anomalies, such as aseismic ridges, plateaus, and hotspot tracks.

To maximize utility for the community, 3DSlabs is integrated with the Geodynamic World Builder (GWB), ensuring direct compatibility with geodynamic codes such as ASPECT. The resulting high-fidelity model is well suited for instantaneous mantle flow modeling and investigations of slab–mantle interaction. The inferred subducted features mapped onto these surfaces further provide new opportunities to investigate how along-slab heterogeneities influence subduction dynamics.

How to cite: Chen, Y.-W. and Wang, J.-L.: 3DSlabs – a global tomography-based upper mantle slab geometry model, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10169, 2026.

EGU26-10499 | Posters on site | GD1.1

Analysis of Seismic Cycle Deformation for the Ms7.1 Wushi Earthquake in Xinjiang Based on Geodetic Data 

zhang qingyun, xie quancai, and zhu shuang

On January 23, 2024, an Ms7.1 earthquake struck Wushi County, Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang. While resulting in relatively limited casualties and economic losses, the event posed a certain threat to the geological safety of the Tianshan region. The Tianshan seismic belt has a history of intense seismic activity, with 17 recorded earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater since 1716, including four exceeding magnitude 8. Notably, the Wushi earthquake is the largest event in this belt since the 1992 Ms7.3 Suusamyr earthquake in Kyrgyzstan. The 1992 Suusamyr earthquake was the first in the Tianshan region recorded by broadband digital seismographs, whereas the recent Wushi earthquake presents a valuable opportunity for a detailed case study using modern high-precision geodetic techniques. Occurring at the junction of the South Tianshan and the Wushi Basin, this event provides a crucial chance to investigate the deformation characteristics of strong earthquakes within the Tianshan seismic belt and to reveal the associated seismogenic structures and mechanisms. This research carries significant implications for understanding fault activity absorption mechanisms within the Tianshan Mountains and the characteristics of active deformation along the boundary between the Tianshan orogen and its foreland basin.

For the Wushi earthquake area, we acquired Sentinel-1 satellite data and GNSS data covering the region. Pre-seismic data collection included 200 frames from Sentinel-1 ascending track (T56) and 208 frames from descending track (T136). For co-seismic deformation analysis, data from tracks T56, T136, and T34 were utilized. Post-seismic data comprised 44 frames from track T56 and 36 frames from track T136. Time-series InSAR and D-InSAR methods were employed to derive regional deformation. The co-seismic results show significant line-of-sight surface deformation in both ascending and descending tracks, with a maximum displacement of approximately 75 cm. Fault slip distribution inversion indicates that the earthquake occurred on a northwest-dipping, left-lateral strike-slip fault with a variable strike and a thrust component. Co-seismic slip was primarily concentrated at depths between 4 and 25 km. Post-seismic deformation results suggest that short-term deformation was mainly induced by an Ms5.7 aftershock. Pre-seismic GNSS deformation results reveal differential crustal activity between the eastern and western sections of the Maidan Fault Zone within the study area, with higher activity observed in the eastern segment where the Wushi earthquake occurred.

Future work will involve analyzing pre-seismic InSAR deformation results to obtain long-term, large-scale seismic cycle deformation fields for the Tianshan earthquake region. The co-seismic slip motion consistency model will be applied to analyze the seismogenic structure and mechanism of the Wushi earthquake. Furthermore, numerical simulations will be employed to elucidate the coupling mechanisms of various post-seismic deformation effects, such as afterslip, viscoelastic relaxation, and pore rebound, following the Wushi earthquake. This integrated approach aims to establish a more systematic understanding of the earthquake's seismogenic mechanism and its post-seismic deformation processes.

 

How to cite: qingyun, Z., quancai, X., and shuang, Z.: Analysis of Seismic Cycle Deformation for the Ms7.1 Wushi Earthquake in Xinjiang Based on Geodetic Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10499, 2026.

Histories of vertical lithospheric motion preserved in sedimentary basins provide constraints on evolving mantle buoyancy and convection histories. We present a quantitative analysis of subsidence, exhumation and stratigraphic hiatuses to constrain mantle dynamics during the Cretaceous–Cenozoic, illustrated by case studies from northwestern Australia. Basin analysis across multiple basins from this region calculates the continental-scale vertical response to evolving geodynamic forces, from Jurassic–Cretaceous subsidence during sub-basin development associated with rifting and Gondwana breakup to the recent northeastward tilting of Australia driven by dynamic topography linked to slab subduction beneath the Indonesian margin.

In particular, our kinematic reconstructions of the Northern Carnarvon Basin quantify Jurassic–Cretaceous nearshore intraplate rift-extension rates (~8 mm/yr), with rift cessations at ~155 and ~120 Ma coinciding with major Gondwana breakup events. This temporal correspondence demonstrates strong coupling between far-field plate reorganisations and regional vertical and lateral motions and constrains lithospheric controls on strain localisation during Gondwana breakup events.

Integration of compaction and paleothermal data identifies two significant Mesozoic exhumation episodes that correlate spatially with mapped magmatic bodies, implying that thermal perturbations from sub-lithospheric sources drove regional uplift. Jurassic–Early Cretaceous NE–SW gradients in uplift and exhumation shoe dynamically evolving magmatic systems, associated with the Kerguelen and Exmouth plumes. In addition, we present uncertainty propagation analysis. This analysis indicates that robust coverage and high-quality data on the Northwest Shelf reduces uncertainty in subsidence and exhumation estimates, thereby increasing our confidence in the results and conclusions from this study.

How to cite: Clark, S., Makuluni, P., and Hauser, J.: Dynamic Reconstructions of Basins in Australia: Stratigraphic Constraints on Cretaceous to Cenozoic Mantle Convection, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10561, 2026.

EGU26-10775 | Posters on site | GD1.1

Constraining properties of mantle circulation models using disparate observations 

J. Huw Davies, James Panton, Abigail Plimmer, Paul Beguelin, Morton Andersen, Andy Nowacki, Stepehn Mason, Chris Davies, Bob Myhill, Tim Elliott, James Wookey, Gareth Roberts, Conor O'Malley, Ana Ferreira, William Sturgeon, Oli Shorttle, Walker Andrew, Paula Koelemeijer, Franck Latallerie, and Andy Biggin

Properties of the mantle are difficult to constrain and critical for controlling mantle evolution and dynamics. We attempt to constrain these properties by comparing the outputs from mantle circulation models (MCMs) to 9 disparate observations.  Over 250 MCMs driven at the surface by 1 Ga of plate motion history are considered. A metric is developed to quantify the fit/misfit between each observation and MCM prediction. The observations include, global seismic tomography, SOLA seismic inference of the Pacific upper mantle, global surface wave phase velocity data set, gradients of seismic velocity in the deep mantle, dynamic topography, geoid, geomagnetic reversals, temperature difference between MORB and OIB source regions, and the difference in amount of recycled oceanic crust in MORB versus OIB source regions. The comparisons are done with (i) heatmaps of each metric for each MCM, (ii) correlation between the metrics and input parameters, (iii) analyses of sub-sets where only a single MCM parameter is changed, (iv) random forest analysis where the importance and partial dependence plot of MCM parameters are produced for each metric. From this analysis we find that parameters can be constrained, including for example the temperature at the core mantle boundary, the preferred equation of state, the preferred plate motion history model, the presence of a basal layer, the buoyancy number of the recycled basalt, viscosity profile. For example the MCMs prefer a cooler core-mantle boundary, a mantle reference frame-based plate motion history, a Murnaghan EoS and a basalt buoyancy number in the lower mantle of around 0.4-0.5. Methods, analyses and further results will be presented.

How to cite: Davies, J. H., Panton, J., Plimmer, A., Beguelin, P., Andersen, M., Nowacki, A., Mason, S., Davies, C., Myhill, B., Elliott, T., Wookey, J., Roberts, G., O'Malley, C., Ferreira, A., Sturgeon, W., Shorttle, O., Andrew, W., Koelemeijer, P., Latallerie, F., and Biggin, A.: Constraining properties of mantle circulation models using disparate observations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10775, 2026.

EGU26-11226 | Orals | GD1.1

Insights on mantle convection from global tomography 

Eric Debayle, Durand Stéphanie, Shuyang Sun, and Yanick Ricard

In this presentation, I will review some of our recent global tomography results, that provide constraints on the Earth mantle structure and mantle convection.

In the upper mantle, we have recently constructed global tomographic models of SV wave velocity, 𝑉𝑠𝑣, and radial anisotropy, 𝜉, using the same tomographic approach, with similar regularization and smoothing for the Rayleigh and Love wave data. We also use Rayleigh waves to constrain the azimuthal anisotropy, the quality factor 𝑄 and the melt content. We find that a 1-D model of radial anisotropy, close to PREM, but including a 3D crustal structure, explains the Love/Rayleigh differences almost everywhere, except in oldest parts of the continents and youngest parts of the Pacific ridge. No age dependence of the radial anisotropy 𝜉 in the oceanic upper mantle is required, while age is the main parameter controlling 𝑉𝑠𝑣, melt content and azimuthal anisotropy. In the asthenosphere, azimuthal anisotropy aligns on a large scale with present  plate motion only for fast plates (> ∼4 cmyr−1), suggesting that only fast-moving plates produce sufficient shearing at their base, to organize the flow on the scale of the entire tectonic plates. Part of the azimuthal anisotropy is also frozen in the shallow oceanic lithosphere. The presence of a small amount of partial melt, by reducing mantle viscosity, facilitates plate motion and large-scale crystal alignment in the asthenosphere.

We have also built global shear tomographic models of the whole mantle for the shear velocity (SEISGLOB2) and attenuation (QL3D). In the lower mantle, SEISGLOB2 has revealed a change in the shear velocity spectrum at around 1000 km depth. The spectrum is the flattest (i.e. richest in "short" wavelengths corresponding to spherical harmonic degrees greater than 10) around 1000 km depth and this flattening occurs between 670 and 1500 km depth. QL3D combines various S-phase measurements, including surface waves, direct (S, SS, SSS, SSSS), core-reflected (ScS, ScSScS, ScSScSScS), diffracted (S𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓) and their depth phases (e.g., sS, sScS, sS𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓), providing extensive depth and spatial coverage. A high attenuation zone highlights the peculiar nature of the mantle around 1000 km depth. This may indicate the presence of a global low-viscosity layer, in a region that roughly corresponds to the upper boundary of the Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces (LLSVPs), and where various changes in the continuity of slabs and mantle plumes have been observed. Our 3D shear quality factor model also confirms that the LLSVPs are attenuating, at least for body waves with periods near  35 s. The correlation between strong attenuation and low shear velocities within these regions suggests that the shear quality factor mostly captures the thermal signature of the LLSVP.

How to cite: Debayle, E., Stéphanie, D., Sun, S., and Ricard, Y.: Insights on mantle convection from global tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11226, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11226, 2026.

EGU26-12125 | Orals | GD1.1

The Réunion Island mantle plume – isotopic constraints on core addition or ancient silicate component? 

Matthias Willbold, Nils Messling, Xiguang Huang, and Dirk Hoffmann

The geochemical composition of ocean island basalts (OIB) from Réunion Island has been controversially interpreted as recording either interaction between the mantle and Earth’s core [1] or the preservation of an ancient, Hadean silicate reservoir isolated since early Earth differentiation [2,3]. Resolving this debate bears directly on the nature of deep mantle heterogeneity, the longevity of early-formed reservoirs, and the efficiency of whole-mantle mixing through time. In particular, the extinct 182Hf-182W decay system provides a powerful tracer of both, core contribution due to the strong siderophile behaviour of W during core formation as well as early silicate differentiation processes because of the short half-life of 182Hf.

Here we present new high-precision radiogenic W isotope data (μ182W) for 39 basaltic lavas from Réunion Island, complemented by major and trace element compositions and long-lived radiogenic isotope ratios including 143Nd/144Nd, 87Sr/86Sr, and 206,207,208Pb/204Pb. Measured μ182W values range from 0 to –11, fully overlapping with the range reported in previous studies of Réunion and related plume products [1–3]. These results confirm that the Réunion mantle source is isotopically heterogeneous and requires the involvement of a geochemically distinct component not represented in depleted upper mantle reservoirs.

By integrating short-lived and long-lived isotope systematics with trace element constraints, we evaluate the origin of this component and its implications for deep Earth processes. In particular, we assess whether the observed μ182W anomalies are more consistent with contributions from an early-formed silicate reservoir that avoided complete mantle homogenization, or with addition of core-derived material to the mantle plume source. Our dataset is discussed in the context of isotopic findings that provide compelling evidence for ongoing or episodic core–mantle chemical exchange recorded in OIB sources [4].

The combined data of Réunion basalts indicate that core addition is the most likely process to explain the chemical and isotopic observations. Our findings allow qualitative constraints on the mass exchange between the Earth’s core and mantel and highlight the importance of integrating multiple isotope systems to disentangle the complex history of mantle plume sources and their role in recording the mass exchange from core to surface on Earth.

References:

[1] Rizo et al. (2019) Geochemical Perspectives Letters, 6–11.

[2] Peters et al. (2018) Nature, 555, 89–93.

[3] Pakulla et al. (2025) Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 653.

[4] Messling et al. (2025) Nature, 642, 376–380.

How to cite: Willbold, M., Messling, N., Huang, X., and Hoffmann, D.: The Réunion Island mantle plume – isotopic constraints on core addition or ancient silicate component?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12125, 2026.

EGU26-12227 | ECS | Orals | GD1.1

On the role of tomographic resolution and uncertainty in reconstructing past mantle flow 

Roman Freissler, Bernhard S.A. Schuberth, Ingo L. Stotz, Christophe Zaroli, and Hans-Peter Bunge

Tomographic images play a crucial role in estimating the thermodynamic state of Earth's mantle, yet reliable quantification of their uncertainties is essential for drawing robust conclusions in geodynamics. In particular, reconstructions of past mantle flow that rely on tomographic inputs require a practical handling of the difference in spatial scales between predictions from fluid dynamics and the heterogeneities observable through seismology. This scale discrepancy can indeed already be addressed through so-called tomographic filtering as a post-processing step applied to standard forward models of mantle circulation. However, integrating such approaches technically into adjoint or inverse modeling frameworks—used in data-driven mantle flow reconstructions—remains to be thoroughly explored.

Here, we perform a fully synthetic experiment to highlight the difficulties in quantitatively linking tomographic images with geodynamic models. Specifically, we employ the Subtractive Optimally Localized Averages (SOLA) method—a linear Backus–Gilbert-type inversion technique—to image a reference mantle circulation model. The SOLA inversions are based on finite-frequency traveltime residuals derived from full-waveform numerical seismograms computed for the geodynamic reference model.

Drawing on the insights provided by this synthetic experiment, we propose a workflow for adjoint-based mantle flow reconstructions that aims to leverage the tools provided by the SOLA approach. For the tomographic component, this involves generating spatially optimized averaging kernels that characterize local resolution (i.e. the specific tomographic filter), along with rigorous uncertainty estimates for parameter averages obtained by the propagation of data errors (both being built-in features of SOLA). On the geodynamic side, one should first aim to incorporate measures of tomographic resolution directly into the misfit/cost function of the adjoint method. This step is critical because the adjoint model validation compares observed surface dynamic topography in time with its prediction from the reconstructed flow history, which is highly sensitive to the tomographic input.  Once resolution-related biases are factored in, small model ensembles should make it possible to practically account for stochastic uncertainties, eventually yielding more robust constraints on mantle flow history. We suggest that the success of a specific misfit function and the realization of model ensembles can be assessed with dedicated synthetic closed-loop experiments, prior to their actual application.

Overall, our results offer practical guidance towards a strategy that integrates the complete tomographic information, including resolution and uncertainty, into fully operational reconstructions of past mantle flow.

How to cite: Freissler, R., Schuberth, B. S. A., Stotz, I. L., Zaroli, C., and Bunge, H.-P.: On the role of tomographic resolution and uncertainty in reconstructing past mantle flow, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12227, 2026.

EGU26-12420 | ECS | Orals | GD1.1

Rapid mass redistributions in the deep mantle from satellite gravity and interactions with core flows 

Charlotte Gaugne Gouranton, Isabelle Panet, Mioara Mandea, Marianne Greff-Lefftz, and Séverine Rosat

Constraining the transport of mass in the Earth’s mantle over a broad range of timescales is a key step in order to understand the mantle convection and its dynamic interactions with tectonic plates and core flows. Mapped with high accuracy all over the globe from GRACE and GRACE Follow-On satellite missions, the temporal variations of the gravity field can provide unique information on potential rapid mass redistributions within the Earth’s deep interior, even if their separation with the signals from the Earth’s fluid enveloppe is challenging. In the present study, we focus on the base of the mantle and the boundary with the core (CMB). Applying dedicated methods of space-time patterns recognition in the gravity field, we identify a rapid, anomalous north-south oriented gravity signal at large spatial scales across the Eastern Atlantic ocean in January 2007, which evolves over months to years. We show that this signal likely originates, at least partly, from the solid Earth ; it appears concomittant, both spatially and temporally, with the 2007 geomagnetic jerk. We hypothesize that it may be induced by vertical displacements of the perovskite to post-perovskite phase transition, caused by moving thermal anomalies near the base of the African Large Low Shear Velocity Province. This may result in the creation of a decimetric dynamic CMB topography over a timespan of a few years. To assess a potential link with the 2007 geomagnetic jerk, we finally investigate the impact of these changes in core-mantle boundary topography on the flow and the geomagnetic field in a thin layer at the top of the core. These results stress the interest of satellite gravimetry for providing novel insights into the dynamical interactions between the mantle and the core.

How to cite: Gaugne Gouranton, C., Panet, I., Mandea, M., Greff-Lefftz, M., and Rosat, S.: Rapid mass redistributions in the deep mantle from satellite gravity and interactions with core flows, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12420, 2026.

EGU26-12612 | ECS | Orals | GD1.1

Core–mantle coupling: New insights into the magnetic and thermal evolution of Earth 

Louis Müller, Kristina Kislyakova, Lena Noack, Evelyn Macdonald, Gwenaëlle Van Looveren, and Anuja Raorane

The Earth has possessed a magnetic field for at least ~4.3 Ga, as indicated by paleomagnetic data. To constrain Earth’s thermal and magnetic evolution, parameterized core models have traditionally relied on a parameterized mantle assumed to be vigorously convecting due to plate tectonics. By neglecting spatial variations in mantle temperature and viscosity, these models typically predict an inner core nucleation (ICN) age of 0.5–0.8 Ga, which requires a thermally driven dynamo prior to that time. Recent experimental constraints indicating higher core thermal conductivities have therefore led to the “new core paradox,” in which sub-adiabatic conditions can result in gigayear-long interruptions of the modeled geodynamo.

Alternatively, studies that couple higher-dimensional mantle convection models with parameterized core evolution have found that hot initial core temperatures and an insulating primordial lid above the core–mantle boundary (CMB) are required to reproduce the present-day inner core size, with minimal influence from the surface tectonic regime. However, these studies did not predict magnetic field strengths and showed that the available magnetic dissipation overestimates Earth’s magnetic field in the early evolution and underestimates it at later times.

Here, we present a new two-dimensional mantle convection model coupled to a core evolution model that incorporates state-of-the-art mineral physics data and magnetic field strength scaling laws. Our results require a ~200 km thick primordial dense layer and the presence of the post-perovskite phase at the base of the mantle, forming a CMB thermal lid that inhibits strong early core-cooling. By varying surface plasticity and the maximum density contrast of the lower mantle relative to the ambient mantle, we identify best-fit models that reproduce both inner core growth and the secular variation of the magnetic field.

Assuming a bulk silicate Earth (BSE) composition, 12 wt.% light elements in the core, a core thermal conductivity of 125 W m⁻¹ K⁻¹, an initial CMB temperature of 4564 K, and a CMB lid that is 7% denser than peridotite, ICN occurs at ~1.3 Ga, while the thermal dynamo ceases after ~3 Ga. Future constraints on the presence and evolution of a thermally stable layer in the core will further refine models of Earth’s magnetic field evolution.

How to cite: Müller, L., Kislyakova, K., Noack, L., Macdonald, E., Van Looveren, G., and Raorane, A.: Core–mantle coupling: New insights into the magnetic and thermal evolution of Earth, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12612, 2026.

EGU26-13060 | ECS | Orals | GD1.1

A late onset of plate tectonics as a solution of the New Core Paradox. 

Valentin Bonnet Gibet and Nicola Tosi

The Earth has sustained a magnetic field for at least 3.4 billion years, generated by convective motions of liquid iron within the outer core. Maintaining such a long-lived geodynamo requires efficient cooling of the core. However, a high core thermal conductivity as suggested by experiments and theoretical calculations reduces the convective power available prior to inner-core nucleation, making the continuous persistence of the magnetic field more difficult. This apparent incompatibility between high thermal conductivity estimates and evidence for a ~3.4 Ga-long geodynamo is known as the “New Core Paradox”. Because core cooling is primarily controlled by heat transfer through the overlying solid mantle, an accurate quantification of the heat extracted from the core via mantle convection is therefore essential to resolving this paradox.

Today, the mantle cools efficiently mainly through plate tectonics, via subduction of cold large plates. But when plate tectonics actually began is still debated. Did it start soon after Earth formed, around 4.5 billion years ago? Did it appear later, between 4 and 3 billion years ago? Or is it a more recent process, less than a billion years old?

We explored how different styles of mantle cooling would have influenced Earth’s thermal and magnetic history. We explored either a mobile surface like modern plate tectonics (i.e. mobile lid) or a less efficient, stagnant-lid-like regime (where the surface doesn’t move), or a transition from stagnant- to mobile-lid regime at a given time and with a given duration. This is important because how Earth’s mantle cooled over time is closely tied to its ability to keep generating a magnetic field.

We built a global model for the Earth coupling a core model including inner core formation and the possibility to form stably stratified layers, with a mantle model simulating different convective (hence cooling) regimes.

We performed a Markov Chain-Monte Carlo inversion using as constraints the present-day size of the inner core, the continuous 3.4 billion years old magnetic record, and the mantle potential temperature record. We inverted the viscosity parameters, tectonic transition parameters and core thermal conductivity. Our models successfully reproduce all the constraints for an onset between 4.0 Ga and 2.5 Ga, with a bimodal distribution characterized by a relatively early onset of mobile-lid convection with a long-duration transition, or a later onset with a more rapid transition to a mobile-lid regime. Our result show that the late and rapid transition case allows for a core thermal conductivity up to 110 W/m/K, providing a possible solution to the New Core Paradox.

How to cite: Bonnet Gibet, V. and Tosi, N.: A late onset of plate tectonics as a solution of the New Core Paradox., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13060, 2026.

Light elements are thought to be essential components of liquid cores in terrestrial planets and play a key role in core formation, chemical evolution, and the generation of planetary magnetic fields. In multicomponent iron–light element (Fe–LE) systems, when multiple light elements coexist in liquid iron, their solubilities are mutually constrained, forming an anti-correlated solubility relationship, referred to here as simultaneous solubility.

Here we investigate the simultaneous solubility and exsolution behavior of light elements in the Fe–Si–C–(H) system using a combination of high-pressure and high-temperature experiments and machine-learning force field accelerated molecular dynamics (MLFF-MD) simulations. Multi-anvil experiments conducted at pressures of 9–21 GPa and temperatures of 1400–2200 °C reveal that these light elements can dissolve simultaneously in liquid iron and exhibit simultaneous solubility limits, with exsolution of Si, C, and H observed during melting and quenching. Complementary MLFF-MD simulations of the Fe–Si–C system provide atomic-scale insights into light element interactions in metallic melts and reproduce the experimentally observed anti-correlated solubility trends under core-relevant conditions.

By combining experimental and computational results, we derive simultaneous solubility relationships in the Fe–Si–C–(H) system and show how they vary with temperature and pressure. These results suggest that in reduced planetary cores, such as those of Mercury and Earth, Si, C, and H may coexist as simultaneously dissolved light elements. As the liquid core cools, the progressive decrease in simultaneous solubility drives continuous exsolution of light elements, providing an additional potential energy source for core dynamics and offering a potential explanation for chemical heterogeneity at the core–mantle boundary (CMB).

How to cite: Li, Y. and Zhu, F.:  Light Elements Exsolution in the Fe–Si–C–(H) System of Terrestrial Planet Liquid Cores, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13280, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13280, 2026.

EGU26-13514 | ECS | Orals | GD1.1

High pressure melting of Fe-Si alloys with applications to the lunar core composition and dynamo processes 

Ben Kalman, Wenjun Yong, and Richard Secco

Earth’s magnetosphere is generated by convective dynamo action within its liquid metallic outer core. This same core-driven dynamo process has been inferred for other terrestrial planetary bodies which either presently possess a magnetosphere, or may have in the past. These bodies include Ganymede, Mercury, the Moon, and Asteroid 4 Vesta. However, understanding these core processes requires that the core composition be known. By experimentally determining the solid-liquid phase transitions of core-relevant alloys, the likely compositions of these terrestrial cores may be constrained.

            Experiments were conducted on 8 Fe-Si alloys in the range of Fe-5 wt% Si to Fe-33 wt% Si (FeSi) using a 1000-ton cubic anvil press, at pressures of 3-5 GPa and temperatures into the liquid state. A central 5-hole BN cylinder held 5 different Fe-Si sample compositions simultaneously with a thermocouple located at the base of the BN cylinder, and was surrounded by a graphite furnace within a pyrophyllite cubic pressure cell. Following quenching of each experiment, the samples were analysed by electron microprobe for composition and texture. From these analyses, the solidus and liquidus boundaries were mapped across the aforementioned compositional range at of 3, 4, and 5 GPa.

            It was determined that the melting boundary for 3-5 GPa was roughly 50-150 K higher than that of 1 atm, with a eutectic composition of Fe-20 wt% Si. Across the 3-5 GPa range, there was an increase in the melting boundary of roughly 50-75 K. Using pressure and temperature estimates from previous core modelling studies, a range of approximately 10-15 wt% Si was suggested for the core of the Moon.

How to cite: Kalman, B., Yong, W., and Secco, R.: High pressure melting of Fe-Si alloys with applications to the lunar core composition and dynamo processes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13514, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13514, 2026.

The structure of the Earth's deep mantle is a result of complex processes that are influenced by surface tectonics through the subduction of oceanic lithosphere and by core dynamics through the heat flow across the core-mantle-boundary. The other way around the structures in the deep mantle affect the Earth's surface by feeding mantle plumes that sustain volcanism. By modulating the heat flow at the CMB the mantle also affects the dynamics of the core and the magnetic field.

These processes focus in the D'' layer that marks the mysterious few hundred kilometers directly above the core-mantle-boundary which contain dominant features like the Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces and features with rather extreme properties like the Ultra Low Velocity Zones. Knowledge of the structural features in the D'' layer is of importance for the understanding of long- and short-term processes in our direct environment at the surface of the Earth.

The remoteness of D'' layer more than 2,500 kilometers below the surface poses challenges for geophysical investigations and limits the resolution of seismological imaging. Seismic tomography with surface waves and normal modes therefor locate the large scale features, only. Detailed wavefield analysis and modeling of particular seismic phases, often based on array observations provide more detailed information about locally dominating structures and their contrasts. For the characterization of distributed small scale structures that can be referred to as heterogeneity even wavefield analysis fails due to the superposition of waves scattered at different locations of the heterogeneous material. Such heterogeneity can for instance represent remnants of oceanic crust that has been subducted down to the CMB.

Despite the complexity of signals generated by distributed heterogeneity the analysis of high frequency scattered waves provides constraints on the presence structures at short length scales of a few kilometers in the deep mantle. I review the theoretical basics of scattering theory and the observational evidence for deep Earth distributed heterogeneity. I discuss new observations of high frequency seismic waves scattered in the deep mantle together with limitations in the interpretation imposed by the nature of the scattered wavefield.

How to cite: Sens-Schönfelder, C.: Investigating small-scale deep-mantle structure, the stories told by high frequency scattered waves, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14881, 2026.

EGU26-15073 | Orals | GD1.1

 Persistent Geochemical Zonation (“Striping”) within the Galápagos Mantle Plume 

Mark Richards, Matthew Gleeson, Cinzia Farnetani, Kaj Hoernle, and Sally Gibson

Some hotspot tracks, such as those formed by the Hawai’i and Galápagos mantle plumes, exhibit long-lived cross-track isotopic zonation, thought to reflect the streaking out of heterogeneous material in the plume conduit during upwelling. In lavas associated with the Galápagos mantle plume, three geochemical domains, present for at least 15 Myr, have been identified: northern, southern and central. The most extreme isotopic enrichments are observed in the northern domain of the Cocos Ridge at ~15 Ma, and in the southern domain of the Galápagos Archipelago at the present day. Owing to the northward migration of the Galápagos Spreading Center above the plume at ~5-10 Ma, this relationship suggests that geochemical enrichment in the Galápagos basalts is greatest above the region of the plume furthest from the nearby mid-ocean ridge. We examine the hypothesis that these temporal and spatial variations in geochemical enrichment reflect a ''shallow mantle control'', associated with differences in the mean depth of melting. We conducted forward melting models of a mixed peridotite-pyroxenite mantle to calculate the isotopic composition of the resulting melts formed under two different mantle flow regimes. Our results demonstrate that variations in the average pressure of melt generation, due to the influence of the nearby ridge axis, may explain the range of isotopic compositions across ~15 Ma of Galápagos plume-related volcanism. The patterns of isotopic zonation observed along the hotspot track confirm the paradigm of persistent plume striping, with variations in the degree of geochemical enrichment modulated by shallow mantle processes.

How to cite: Richards, M., Gleeson, M., Farnetani, C., Hoernle, K., and Gibson, S.:  Persistent Geochemical Zonation (“Striping”) within the Galápagos Mantle Plume, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15073, 2026.

EGU26-15113 | Orals | GD1.1

 Geophysically Determined Island Habitat History and Colonization of the Galápagos Islands by Central American Iguanas 

Mark Richards, Gabriele Gentile, Kristopher Karnauskas, and Felipe Orellana-Rovirosa

The Galápagos Islands’ unique endemic flora and fauna originated mainly from colonization from South and Central America, including the famous Galápagos iguanas. Genetic analysis suggests that these iguanas arrived from Central America ~5-12 Ma million years ago (Late Miocene) or even earlier, yet the oldest of the present-day islands were formed at ~3.5 Ma. Recent geophysical analysis shows that now-submerged islands along the Cocos Ridge (Galápagos hotspot track) provided terrestrial habitat for colonization and differentiation during the time frame ~6-18 Ma. Remarkably, this was also a time window during which ocean currents and winds were much more favorable for transport from mainland Central America to these ancient islands, prior to the closing of the Isthmus of Panama at ~3-5 Ma due to regional plate tectonic forces. Thus, we can explain both the colonization timing and provenance of Galápagos iguanas in a framework that shows much promise for understanding the origins of other unique Galápagos species.

How to cite: Richards, M., Gentile, G., Karnauskas, K., and Orellana-Rovirosa, F.:  Geophysically Determined Island Habitat History and Colonization of the Galápagos Islands by Central American Iguanas, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15113, 2026.

EGU26-15485 | ECS | Posters on site | GD1.1

New measurements of inner core attenuation 

Carl Martin and Hrvoje Tkalčić

The nature and properties of the inner core has been a topic of keen interest since its discovery as a solid body by Lehmann in 1936. Since then, there have been numerous studies into its (isotropic and anisotropic) velocity and attenuation structure. These models typically feature strong hemispherical and layered structures, which dominate the interpretations of these models.

In this study, we focus on the attenuation structure of the inner core: energy that is lost inelastically, i.e. not through elastic scattering or redistribution. Here, we will demonstrate the progress we have made in creating a data set of new measurements of attenuation in the inner core from a variety of seismic phases (but especially PKPdf-PKPbc) with a focus on improving the spatial distribution of observations from previous studies using earthquakes from 2018--2025. We go on to benchmark our results against those of Pejic et al (2017), who used 400 high quality dt* measurements to invert for attenuation structure in the uppermost 400 km of the inner core.

How to cite: Martin, C. and Tkalčić, H.: New measurements of inner core attenuation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15485, 2026.

During the last 7 years several groups have reported paleomagnetic data documenting an unprecedented interval during the Ediacaran Period when the global geomagnetic field strength was only 10 to 3 percent of the present-day value, defining an ultra-low time-averaged field interval (UL-TAFI) from 591 to 565 Ma. Moreover, the EMANATE hypothesis suggests that atmospheric H loss to space through the UL-TAFI weak magnetosphere led to increased oxygenation, assisting the Avalon explosion of animal life (Tarduno et al., 2025). A relatively rapid increase in field strengths after the UL-TAFI has been suggested to record the onset of inner core nucleation; the return of magnetic shielding may have assisted subsequent Cambrian evolution. Herein, we present new data that suggest: 1. the UL-TAFI was at least 90 million years long, beginning in the Cryogenian Period and, 2. the field may have completely collapsed to zero during events as long as 200 kyr within the UL-TAFI. While the existence of the UL-TAFI does not comment on the need for core supercooling for inner core nucleation, the extended duration defined here is compatible with some models for such a process.  Variations of the field strength and dipolarity within the UL-TAFI may record bistability between the weak and strong field branches of the geodynamo as seen in some numerical simulations. This bistability, proposed to characterize the very start of the geodynamo, may have also been the underlying nature of the field during late Neoproterozoic times, explaining seemingly anomalous magnetic directions from global sites. The extended duration of the UL-TAFI, and the episodic complete collapse of the dynamo, support the hypothesis that H loss and increased oxygenation of the atmosphere and ocean, enabled the radiation of macroscopic Ediacaran animal life.

How to cite: Tarduno, J., Blackman, E., Schneider, J., and Cottrell, R.: A fibrillating Cryogenian-Ediacaran magnetic field: Implications for the nature of the dynamo, inner core nucleation, and the Avalon explosion of life, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15540, 2026.

EGU26-15742 | Orals | GD1.1

A North-Pacific slab-flux pulse drove the ~50 Ma TPW reversal 

Alessandro Forte, Petar Glišović, Marianne Greff-Lefftz, David Rowley (Deceased), and Shayan Kamali Lima

True polar wander (TPW) records displacements of Earth’s rotation axis induced by mantle convective redistribution of internal mass anomalies. A TPW reversal near ~50 Ma inferred from paleomagnetic data remains debated, particularly its cause and its robustness across reference frames. We present 70-million-year, tomography-assimilative mantle-convection reconstructions that evolve present-day seismic structure backwards in time, with an energy-consistent flow formulation, yielding time-dependent density, inertia tensor, and TPW. Three independent diagnostics converge on a single, time-localized driver: (i) maps of the long-wavelength geoid-rate (∂N/∂t) show a focused Aleutian–Kamchatka lobe at 50 Ma; (ii) off-diagonal inertia-tensor time derivatives peak contemporaneously at this time; and (iii) cap-blanking experiments that zero anomalies within a 30–40° North-Pacific cap erase the U-turn, whereas comparable caps elsewhere do not. We interpret the causative structure as a coherent North-Pacific (“Kula–Izanagi” sensu lato) slab-flux pulse entering the lower mantle.

Predicted TPW paths quantitatively match palaeomagnetic trajectories across multiple mantle frames (reduced χ² ≈ 0.6; mean path-averaged angular misfit ≈ 1.7°) and reproduce the observed ~50 Ma U-turn bracketed by twin maxima in TPW speed. Present-day mantle-driven TPW rates of 0.2–0.4° Ma-1 imply ~20–40% of the 20th-century geodetic rate. In head-to-head tests, slab-history reconstructions (with or without hotspot-fixed “domes”) differ markedly in azimuth and TPW-speed evolution, tend to distribute path reorientation over 60–45 Ma, and yield substantially larger misfits to the same data.

These results (i) isolate a geographically localized, time-specific mantle driver of the ~50 Ma TPW reversal, (ii) demonstrate reference-frame robustness using explicit misfit metrics, and (iii) provide a transferable workflow – geoid-rate mapping, inertia-tensor derivatives, and cap-blanking – for attributing TPW events to concrete mantle processes.

How to cite: Forte, A., Glišović, P., Greff-Lefftz, M., Rowley (Deceased), D., and Kamali Lima, S.: A North-Pacific slab-flux pulse drove the ~50 Ma TPW reversal, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15742, 2026.

With the plans of the MAGIC/NGGM mission approved, there will be several decades of satellite gravity  data available. Both periodic and secular mass changes can be studied with this data, mostly surface mass changes like hydrology, ice melt, glacial isostatic adjustment, and large earthquakes. With the increasing time period of the gravity data set, smaller processes in the signal can be detected. Therefore, we conduct sensitivity analysis on small temporal gravity signals which can be related to mass change due to mantle convection.

We perform various sensitivity analysis studies to understand the added benefit of detecting mantle flow with satellite gravity change observations. A fast stoke solver (FLAPS) is developed that is based on an axisymmetric half annulus geometry. The model evolves over 50 years after which the difference between the initial and final state to compute the rate of change. Realistic Earth models (PREM) as well as synthetic models are tested to better understand the sensitivity of the gravity change data. To understand 3D variations in structure and viscosity, we use the open-source mantle flow software ASPECT and incorporate interior models related to ESA's 4D Dynamic Earth project. For the upper mantle the WINTERC-G model incorporates multi data types information in a joint inversion. New analysis show data sensitivity down to the transition zone. For the lower mantle, we use available global tomography models.

The gravity change observations are sensitive to the absolute viscosity state of the mantle. This is contrary to dynamic topography and geoid data, which do not have this sensitivity and studies using these data always have an ambiguity wrt. viscosity state. Moreover, it seems that the gravity change data is more sensitive to the lower mantle of the Earth. 3D calculations need HPC resources and we show that the mesh resolution needs high computational demands to consistently account for the temporal gravity due to mantle flow. Nevertheless, the modelled magnitude of the gravity change linked to global mantle convection seems to be larger than the formal error estimates of the GRACE and GRACE-FO instrumentation. A longer acquisition period will reduce the secular errors in the ocean, atmosphere and tidal correction models, such that eventually mantle convection can be studied directly by satellite gravimetry.

How to cite: Root, B. and Thieulot, C.: Global simulations of temporal gravity due to mantle flow and their sensitivity to the mantle rheology, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16730, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16730, 2026.

EGU26-16736 | Orals | GD1.1

Vertical motions and Cretaceous basin evolution of the Barents Sea Basin in relation to mantle-induced dynamic topography 

Elena Babina, Berta Vilacís, Patrick Makuluni, and Stuart Clark

The geological evolution of the Barents Sea Basin in the Arctic region during the Cretaceous reflects a complex interplay between subsidence and uplift processes. In this study, we analyse well lithostratigraphic data to identify hiatuses, unconformities and depositional periods, assess their spatial distribution, and quantify subsidence using the backstripping technique. Our results reveal episodic deposition and hiatuses across all wells during the Early Cretaceous, followed by a dominant basin-wide hiatus in the Late Cretaceous. Early Cretaceous subsidence was spatially variable, the southeastern parts of the Barents Sea Basin experienced more intensive subsidence compared to other areas. These observations could be linked to the influence of mantle-driven dynamic topography on basin evolution in relation with the High Arctic Large Igneous Province. The results indicate the importance of geodynamic processes in controlling basin architecture and stratigraphic development, with implications for understanding sedimentary evolution and hydrocarbon prospectivity in the Barents Sea.

How to cite: Babina, E., Vilacís, B., Makuluni, P., and Clark, S.: Vertical motions and Cretaceous basin evolution of the Barents Sea Basin in relation to mantle-induced dynamic topography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16736, 2026.

EGU26-17051 | ECS | Posters on site | GD1.1

Geomagnetic Field Dynamics During Excursions and Reversals 

Sunaina Shinu, Ahmed Nasser Mahgoub Ahmed, and Monika Korte

The geomagnetic field undergoes both long-term and short-term deviations from its predominantly dipolar configuration, expressed as polarity reversals and geomagnetic excursions. These episodes are characterized by significant drops in field intensity and an increase in the paleosecular variation index (PSV index), reflecting changes in the underlying geodynamo. This work focuses on analysing the temporal evolution of the field during these events in order to better constrain the dynamics of the geodynamo.

We utilized some of the most reliable paleomagnetic data-based models such as LSMOD.2, GGFSS70, GGFMB and PADM2M, encompassing different time periods to analyse the rate of change in the dipole moment and the PSV index. A sawtooth pattern of gradual dipole decay followed by rapid recovery during reversals, as proposed by past studies, has been observed in our study on the Matuyama Brunhes reversal. But, in contrast, we observed an opposite behavior of fast decay and slow recovery during most of the excursions. Accordingly, the PSV index exhibited a slow growth–fast recovery pattern during the reversal and a fast decay–slow recovery pattern during many excursions, although the PSV index results vary more than the dipole moment results. In this study, we test whether similar or distinct asymmetries characterize the Gauss–Matuyama reversal. The preliminary outputs from the newly developing Gauss–Matuyama field model were made use for that. Here, we will report the results of this ongoing work.

How to cite: Shinu, S., Nasser Mahgoub Ahmed, A., and Korte, M.: Geomagnetic Field Dynamics During Excursions and Reversals, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17051, 2026.

EGU26-17109 | ECS | Posters on site | GD1.1

Constraining deep mantle thermal evolution by linking geodynamic modelling, absolute plate motions and normal mode seismology 

Anna Schneider, Bernhard Schuberth, Paula Koelemeijer, Alex Myhill, and David Al-Attar

The frequency of geomagnetic field reversals varies on time scales of tens of millions of years, reflecting mantle-controlled changes in outer core flow that sustains the geodynamo. Accurate knowledge of lateral heat flow variations across the core–mantle boundary (CMB) and their evolution over geologic time is therefore fundamental to understanding the long-term geodynamo behaviour.

Here, we aim at generating robust predictions of lower mantle thermal evolution based on compressible high-resolution mantle circulation models (MCM). By assimilating 410 million years of plate motion history, which coincides roughly with two mantle overturns, the time span of geologically-informed structure above the CMB covers the Cretaceous normal superchron and beyond. To estimate uncertainties in lower mantle thermal evolution, we will employ systematic variations of model parameters, with a focus on uncertainties in the underlying absolute plate motion reference frame. Appraisal of the MCMs will be performed by predicting seismic data that can be compared to observations. Long-period normal mode data are particularly suited in this context, as they provide global constraints. In addition, splitting functions show high sensitivity to variations in the absolute reference frame. The realistic histories of mantle thermal evolution and CMB heat flux that we aim for in this project can in future be linked to geodynamo models and thus be used to predict time-series of Earth's magnetic field behaviour.

How to cite: Schneider, A., Schuberth, B., Koelemeijer, P., Myhill, A., and Al-Attar, D.: Constraining deep mantle thermal evolution by linking geodynamic modelling, absolute plate motions and normal mode seismology, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17109, 2026.

Within the DFG Priority Program 2404 'Reconstructing the Deep Dynamics of Planet Earth over Geologic Time' (DeepDyn, https://www.geo.lmu.de/deepdyn/en/) we investigate possible seismic signatures related to deep Earth processes. Specifically, we investigate seismic anisotropy, by measuring shear wave splitting (SWS) of SKS, SKKS, and PKS phases. Thereby, we determine the splitting parameters, the fast polarization direction Φ and the delay time δt, using both the energy-minimization and the rotation-correlation methods. Especially, we search for phase pair discrepancies based on the observation type (null vs. split) between SKS and SKKS phases. Such discrepancies are indications for a lowermost mantle contribution to the splitting signal because these phases propagate along different paths after leaving the core. Besides using own measurements, we complement our database with measurements from Wolf et al., GJI, 2025. In two regions, beneath Siberia and North America, we find laterally varying values for Φ, in the D’’ layer just above the core-mantle boundary. The preferred directions of Φ are thought to be due to the alignment of minerals resulting from shear in a material flow. In the centers of the study regions, where high seismic velocity is present in global seismic tomography models, mainly null measurements are retrieved whereas systematic variations of Φ seem to dominate at the edges of the high seismic velocity anomalies which are often interpreted as remnants of slabs. A preliminary interpretation for our observations may be that the sinking slab material pushes local mantle material aside, inducing a flow pattern which causes an alignment of minerals and thereby seismic anisotropy.

How to cite: Ritter, J. and Dresler-Dorn, F.: Mantle flow pattern from seismic anisotropy above the core-mantle boundary underneath Siberia and North America, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17168, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17168, 2026.

EGU26-17208 | ECS | Orals | GD1.1 | Highlight

Unraveling the composition and structure of the Earth's outer core 

Federico Daniel Munch, Jack van Driel, Amir Khan, John Brodholt, and Lidunka Vocadlo

The structure of Earth's crust, mantle, and core holds clues to its thermal state and chemical composition, and, in turn, its origin and evolution. Geophysical techniques, and seismology in particular, have proved successful at probing Earth's deep interior and have done much to advance our understanding of its inner workings from mantle convection to crystallization and solidification of Earth’s liquid core. As the outer core cools and solidifies, light elements, such as Si, S, C, O and H, preferentially partition in the fluid outer core. However, the exact composition and thermal state of the outer core remains unknown. Traditionally, the composition of the core has been determined by performing theoretical ab initio calculations on candidate compositions and comparing the results for Vp, Vs and density to seismic reference models (e.g., PREM). Instead, we determine structure, composition and thermal state of Earth's outer core by inverting a plethora of short- and long-period seismic and astronomic-geodetic data in combination with new density functional theory calculations that are fit to a novel Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) equation of state (EoS). The GPR-EoS allows us to self-consistently compute thermo-elastic properties of liquid multi-component mixing models in the Fe-Ni-Si-S-C-O-H system along outer-core adiabats and across its entire pressure and temperature range. By mapping out the thermo-chemical model space of Earth’s outer core that match the seismic and geophysical data within uncertainties, we find two families of solutions characterised by: 1) Si (~4 wt%) and negligible amounts of H and C and 2) C and H (both 0.5 wt%) and smaller amounts of Si (<1 wt%). A correlation between H content and outer-core thermal structure is apparent, such that solutions with little-to-no H correspond to relatively high CMB and ICB temperatures (4100--4400~K and 5750–6000 K, respectively), whereas models with large amounts of H are characterised by lower CMB and ICB temperatures (~3600 K and 4750 K).

How to cite: Munch, F. D., van Driel, J., Khan, A., Brodholt, J., and Vocadlo, L.: Unraveling the composition and structure of the Earth's outer core, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17208, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17208, 2026.

EGU26-17266 | ECS | Posters on site | GD1.1

Assessing the effect of weak tectonic plate boundaries in 3D global mantle circulation models 

Fatemeh Rezaei, Hans-Peter Bunge, Ponsuganth Ilangovan Ponkumar Ilango, Berta Vilacís, Gabriel Robl, Nils Kohl, and Marcus Mohr

A key characteristic of plate tectonics is strain localization along narrow, weak boundaries between otherwise rigid tectonic plates. This localization enables efficient deformation, subduction, and plate motion, and plays a central role in the dynamic evolution of Earth. However, in mantle circulation models, plate velocities are often assimilated as surface boundary conditions without accounting for the rheological weakness of plate boundaries, relative to the surrounding lithosphere.

Weak plate boundaries can be reproduced via sophisticated strain weakening rheologies. While effective, this strategy makes the Stokes system nonlinear and incurs substantial computational cost.

Here, we exploit the fact that data assimilation implies that the locations of plate boundaries are known a priori and introduce specifically prescribed weak zones along plate boundaries in the models. These low-viscosity zones allow us to mimic the natural strain localization of Earth’s lithosphere, allowing deformation to focus at plate margins. We show that this approach can provide a computationally efficient and robust framework for bridging the gap between simplified convection models and the complex tectonic behavior of the real Earth.

How to cite: Rezaei, F., Bunge, H.-P., Ponkumar Ilango, P. I., Vilacís, B., Robl, G., Kohl, N., and Mohr, M.: Assessing the effect of weak tectonic plate boundaries in 3D global mantle circulation models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17266, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17266, 2026.

EGU26-17485 | Orals | GD1.1 | Highlight

Predicting present-day Earth’s lithospheric stress using analytical upper mantle flow models 

Ingo L. Stotz, Jorge Nicolas Hayek, Hans-Peter Bunge, and Sara Carena

Understanding the internal dynamics, structure, and composition of our planet is a fundamental goal of Earth science, and geodynamic modelling has been central to this effort by providing a theoretical window into mantle convection. Moreover, the asthenosphere plays a key role in linking mantle dynamics to surface observations; its channelized nature allows it to be described analytically within the framework of Couette and Poiseuille flow regimes.

Using this framework, we predict global stress fields and compare them directly with observations from the World Stress Map (WSM), a global compilation of crustal stress indicators. Our approach enables fast hypothesis testing and the development of first-order expectations for how different mantle flow states influence surface stress patterns. It also identifies three distinct basal shear traction regimes, depending on whether the asthenosphere locally moves faster than, slower than, or at the same velocity as the overlying plate. As a result, some regions experience driving tractions, others resisting tractions, while some are nearly traction-free. These results show that stress field patterns cannot be explained without realistic upper mantle flow geometries, particularly the spatial distribution and combined effects of plumes, slabs, and plate-driven flow.

 

How to cite: Stotz, I. L., Hayek, J. N., Bunge, H.-P., and Carena, S.: Predicting present-day Earth’s lithospheric stress using analytical upper mantle flow models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17485, 2026.

EGU26-18500 | ECS | Posters on site | GD1.1

Mantle temperatures from global seismic models: Uncertainties and limitations 

Gabriel Robl, Bernhard S.A. Schuberth, Isabel Papanagnou, and Christine Thomas

Many geophysical studies require knowledge on the present-day temperature distribution in Earth’s mantle, which can be estimated from seismic velocity perturbations imaged by tomography in combination with thermodynamic models of mantle mineralogy. However, even in the case of (assumed) known chemical composition, both the seismic and the mineralogical information are significantly affected by inherent limitations and different sources of uncertainty. We investigate the theoretical ability to estimate the thermal state of the mantle from tomographic models in a synthetic closed-loop experiment and quantify the interplay of tomographically damped and blurred seismic heterogeneity in combination with different approximations for the mineralogical conversion from seismic velocities to temperature. Our results highlight that, given the limitations of tomography and the incomplete knowledge of mantle mineralogy, magnitudes and spatial scales of a temperature field obtained from global seismic models deviate significantly from the true state. The average deviations from the reference model are on the order of 50–100 K in the upper mantle and can increase with depth to values of up to 200 K, depending on the resolving capabilities of the respective tomography. Furthermore, large systematic errors exist in the vicinity of phase transitions due to the associated mineralogical complexities. When used to constrain buoyancy forces in time-dependent geodynamic simulations, errors in the temperature field might grow non-linearly due to the chaotic nature of mantle flow. This could be particularly problematic in combination with advanced implementations of compressibility, in which densities are extracted from thermodynamic mineralogical models with temperature-dependent phase assemblages. Erroneous temperatures in this case might activate ‘wrong’ phase transitions and potentially flip the sign of the associated Clapeyron slopes, thereby considerably altering the model evolution. Overall, the strategy to estimate the present-day thermodynamic state of the mantle must be selected carefully to minimize the influence of the collective set of uncertainties.

How to cite: Robl, G., Schuberth, B. S. A., Papanagnou, I., and Thomas, C.: Mantle temperatures from global seismic models: Uncertainties and limitations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18500, 2026.

Reconstructing the thermo-chemical evolution of Earth’s mantle across geological time is a central challenge in the geosciences. Addressing this problem increasingly relies on adjoint-based approaches, which cast mantle convection modelling as an inverse problem and enable the systematic assimilation of observational data into time-dependent simulations. Such methods underpin emerging efforts to build a digital twin of Earth’s mantle: a dynamic, physics-based representation constrained by diverse geological and geophysical observations.

To date, adjoint geodynamic inversions have primarily relied on constraints that act at the beginning or end of model evolution, or at Earth’s surface only, such as plate motions, geodesy, or seismic tomography. However, these datasets provide limited leverage on the evolving thermal and chemical structure of the mantle through time. Intra-plate volcanic lavas offer an underexploited observational constraint, as their major- and trace-element geochemistry records the pressure, temperature, and composition of mantle melting at the time of eruption, providing direct insight into past lithospheric thickness, plume excess temperature, and mantle source heterogeneity.

Here, we present an integrated framework for assimilating geochemical information from ocean island basalts into adjoint models of mantle convection using the Geoscientific ADjoint Optimisation PlaTform (G-ADOPT). Using simulation-informed inversions of rare earth element concentrations, we demonstrate the power of geochemical data to recover the thermal structure of plume melting regions, including lithospheric thickness and plume excess temperature. We then use synthetic experiments to show how these geochemically derived constraints on melting conditions can be incorporated into adjoint reconstructions, substantially improving recovery of mantle temperature fields and flow trajectories relative to inversions based on surface or boundary constraints alone.

By explicitly linking geochemical observables to mantle thermal structure and flow, this approach reduces non-uniqueness in time-dependent inversions and strengthens the ability of adjoint models to retrodict mantle evolution. More broadly, it highlights the transformative potential of integrating geochemistry into data-assimilative geodynamic frameworks and represents a key step toward a fully constrained digital twin of Earth’s interior.

How to cite: Davies, R. and Ghelichkhan, S.: Assimilating Intra-Plate Lava Geochemistry into Adjoint Reconstructions of Earth’s Mantle Evolution, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19074, 2026.

EGU26-20350 | ECS | Orals | GD1.1

Reconstructing Cenozoic Dynamic Topography 

Sia Ghelichkhan and Rhodri Davies

Dynamic topography, the transient deflection of Earth's surface driven by mantle convection, exerts a first-order control on continental flooding, sedimentary basin subsidence, and long-term eustatic sea level. Changes in dynamic topography have been invoked to explain the widespread Cretaceous marine transgression, the subsequent retreat of epicontinental seas, and regional patterns of uplift and subsidence that cannot be attributed to tectonics alone.

Here I present global, high-resolution retrodictions of dynamic topography evolution over the Cenozoic, constrained by seismic tomography, plate kinematic reconstructions, and geological proxies of past surface elevation. These models reveal how migrating mantle upwellings and downwellings have driven substantial changes in surface elevation across multiple continents throughout the Cenozoic. The retrodicted patterns of dynamic topography change provide estimates of mantle-driven sea level contributions, offering new constraints on interpreting the stratigraphic and palaeogeographic record in terms of deep Earth processes.

How to cite: Ghelichkhan, S. and Davies, R.: Reconstructing Cenozoic Dynamic Topography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20350, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20350, 2026.

Recent advances in geodynamo modelling have been very successful in explaining many features of the geo-
magnetic field, including the field reversals and excursions. Previous studies have shown that the dynamics 
of these features depend on spatial variation in the core-mantle boundary (CMB) heat flux pattern. Contrary to 
previous studies, an up-to-date mantle reconstruction for the last 200 Myr provides patterns with a higher degree 
of complexity, featuring a network of interconnected regions with subadiabatic heat flow. We use these patterns 
as outer boundary conditions for dynamo simulation in order to explore whether its evolution can explain the 
observed variation in reversal rate. While the impact of large-scale structures at the core-mantle boundary has 
been thoroughly explored by Frasson et al. (2025), the contribution of smaller scales remains poorly constrained, 
which we aim to cover within the scope of these studies.

For our study, we apply the codensity approach which combines the effects of thermal and compositional density 
to represent both thermally driven convection and the enrichment of the outer core with light elements due to 
the inner core solidification. We first investigate the relative impact of thermal and compositional convection 
a for patterns with various degrees of complexity, defined by the spherical harmonics degree truncation lmax
Our models indicate that the field dynamics, including the reversal rate, depends on the truncation lmax, with 
solutions for lmax = 8 and lmax = 16 exhibiting more reversals than higher truncation degrees. This effect is 
present in models with mixed convection (a = 0.33 and a = 0.66). However, when compositional convection 
clearly dominates (a = 0.99), the pattern has no impact on the reversal behaviour, and the model evolves 
similarly to the homogeneous case. We also observe the emergence of subsurface low-radial-velocity regions, 
reminiscent of the stably-stratified lenses discussed by Mound et al. (2019). Our models also show strong 
zonal flows comparable to those discussed in Frasson et al. (2025). Our ongoing work focuses on comparing 
simulations for the CMB heat flux pattern at the present-day time and during the CNS.

How to cite: Lohay, I. and Wicht, J.: Influence of Small-Scale Core-Mantle Boundary Structures on the Dynamics of the Earth’s Outer Core, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20825, 2026.

The investigation of geomagnetic variations has revealed the presence in Earth's core of a planetary-scale, axially columnar and eccentric gyre flow. Together with the magnetic anomaly of low intensity presently seen beneath the South Atlantic, these structures show that longitudinal hemisphericity is a common feature of the geodynamo. Here, we propose that these hemispherical features result from the onset properties of spherical shell rotating convection in presence of an imposed axial magnetic field, with spatially homogeneous fixed-flux thermal boundary conditions. For an Earth-like range of background magnetic field amplitudes, we find hemispherical critical convection modes that are largely supported by a magneto-Archimedes-Coriolis (MAC) balance and where viscosity plays a secondary role. Pursuing this analysis with fully developed, turbulent self-sustained dynamo simulations, we find that hemispherical modes inherited from convection onset can be maintained if the MAC balance is not perturbed by inertia, the force coming at the next order in the force balance. The presence of the eccentric gyre is therefore conditioned to the magnetic energy matching or exceeding the kinetic energy in the system, the so-called strong-field dynamo regime. The simulations also feature low magnetic intensity anomalies that rotate westward together with the gyre flow.  We highlight a strong correlation between the gyre longitudinal position, the low intensity focus of magnetic intensity, and the eccentricity of the dynamo-generated dipole, showing that these hemispherical structures are indeed linked by the properties of magnetic induction.

How to cite: Grasset, L.: Longitudinally hemispheric structures in the geodynamo : from their physical origin to their geomagnetic consequences, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21834, 2026.

EGU26-83 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

Sagduction: Could This Explain Early Earth Tectonics? A Modeling Perspective 

Poulami Roy, Jeroen van Hunen, and Michael Pons

Sagduction, the downward movement of dense crustal material into the underlying mantle, is considered one of the plausible tectonic mechanisms operating during the Archean time, when the lithosphere was hotter and weaker than today (Bedard, 2006; Johnson et al., 2014; Sizova et al., 2015; Sizova et al., 2018; Piccolo et al., 2019). Understanding the physical conditions that enable sagduction is key to deciphering the early evolution of Earth’s crust and mantle lithosphere.

In this study, we employ a suite of 2D numerical models using ASPECT code, to systematically investigate the dynamics of sagduction under varying rheological and thermal conditions. We vary the viscosity structure and the depth at which lower crustal metamorphism initiates, to test how mantle’s viscosity and metamorphic density changes influence the style and efficiency of sagduction. Our results reveal how the interplay between viscosity layering and metamorphic phase transitions controls the timing and extent of downward crustal recycling.

We further examine how these parameters influence the long-term evolution of the lower crust and the mantle lithosphere beneath it. Our findings provide new insight into the dynamics of Archean lithosphere and the mechanisms that may have governed early continental differentiation.

 

References

Bedard, J.H., 2006. A catalytic delamination-driven model for coupled genesis of Archaean crust and sub-continental lithospheric mantle. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 70, 1188–1214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2005.11.008.

 

Johnson, T., Brown, M., Kaus, B., van Tongeren, J., 2014. Delamination and recycling of Archaean crust caused by gravitational instabilities. Nat. Geosci. 7, 47–52. https:// doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2019.

 

 

Sizova, E., Gerya, T., Stüwea, K., Brown, M., 2015. Generation of felsic crust in the Archean: A geodynamic modeling perspective. Precambr. Res. 271, 198–224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.precamres.2015.10.005.

 

Sizova, E., Gerya, T., Brown, M., Stüwea, K., 2018. What drives metamorphism in early Archean greenstone belts? Insights from numerical modeling, Tectonophysics 746, 587–601. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2017.07.020.

 

 

Piccolo, A., Palin, R., & B.J.P. Kaus, R.W. (2019), Generation of Earth’s Early Continents From a Relatively Cool Archean Mantle, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 20, 1679–1697, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GC008079.

 

How to cite: Roy, P., van Hunen, J., and Pons, M.: Sagduction: Could This Explain Early Earth Tectonics? A Modeling Perspective, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-83, 2026.

EGU26-416 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

Flexure Modeling of Plume Ascension on Mars 

Allie North, Adrien Broquet, and Ana-Catalina Plesa

Near the equator of Mars, between the branched valleys of Noctis Labyrinthus and Valles Marineris, a large rift system, lies a heavily fractured and eroded region, whose tectonic history is poorly constrained. In this region, an eroded shield volcano, named ‘Noctis Mons’, was recently identified through satellite imaging (Lee & Shubham, 2024). Its complex topography makes it difficult to provide a clear chronology of events that led to its formation and erosion. Processes such as plume uplift, fracturing and interaction with the Valles Marineris rift system, gravitational collapse, and the contact of hot volcanic materials with shallow subsurface ice likely played an important role for shaping this volcanic construct. 

In this work, we test the hypothesis that an ascending mantle plume is responsible for the unique features of Noctis Mons.  We first model a rising plume using the geodynamic code GAIA (Hüttig et al., 2013). The Tharsis province represents a large-scale and thick regional crustal thickness anomaly that we incorporate into our plume model by adding a step-like function to evaluate the influence of varying crustal thickness on an ascending plume. We further test several parameters that control the plume dynamics and morphology, including the distribution of heat sources between the mantle and crust, the thermal conductivity of the crust and mantle, the depth-dependence of the viscosity, as well as the consideration of partial melting and melt extraction. Once the plume reaches the base of the lithosphere, we use the GAIA-generated plume temperature distribution to compute crustal deformation. We evaluate flexural uplift and strains in response to this plume to identify regions of extension using a methodology similar to (Broquet & Andrews-Hanna, 2023). The density variations of the plume generated by our geodynamical models is used to solve a system of flexure equations for dynamic uplift, accounting for horizontal and vertical loading as well as self-gravity effects. We iterate both the plume characteristics produced by the geodynamical model and its induced crustal deformation until we find an optimal scenario that reproduces Noctis Mons’ topography and predicts extensional features similar to Noctis-related graben systems seen in satellite images and topography. We also analyze present-day gravity and topography to characterize the rigidity of the lithosphere and the density of the materials composing Noctis Mons.

With our computational framework we aim to constrain the magmatic behavior as well as thermophysical and rheological parameters for the crust and mantle that led to the complexity of tectonic features observed at Noctis Mons, informing our understanding of the formation and evolution of volcanic constructs on Mars.  

Studying plume ascent near Noctis Mons further informs our understanding of volcanism on Mars in its early history. Recent seismic recordings from the InSight lander reported activity in Elysium Planitia, indicating a potential upturn in tectonic activity. We will apply our ascending mantle plume model to Elysium Planitia, a region near Mars’ equator, that potentially hosts a giant and presently active mantle plume (Broquet & Andrews-Hanna, 2023).

How to cite: North, A., Broquet, A., and Plesa, A.-C.: Flexure Modeling of Plume Ascension on Mars, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-416, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-416, 2026.

EGU26-720 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

New Scaling between Plume Buoyancy Fluxes and Dynamic Topography from Numerical Modelling 

Ziqi Ma, Maxim Ballmer, and Antonio Manjón-Cabeza Córdoba

Mantle plumes are hot upwellings that transport heat from the core to the base of the lithosphere, and sample lowermost-mantle chemical structure. Plume buoyancy flux QB measures the vigor of upwellings, which relates to the mass and heat fluxes that mantle plumes convey to sub-lithospheric depths. Hotspot swells are broad regions of anomalous topography generated by the interaction between mantle plumes and the overlying lithosphere, yet the links between plume properties and swell morphology remain poorly understood.

Traditional approaches to measure QB are based on two assumptions: (1) the asthenosphere moves at the same speed as the overriding plate; (2) hotspot swells are fully isostatically compensated, in other words, the seafloor is uplifted due to the isostatic effect of replacing ”normal” asthenosphere with hot plume material. However, at least some plumes (e.g., Iceland) can spread laterally faster at the base of the lithosphere than the corresponding plate motion. Also, hotspot swells are partly dynamically compensated. With increasingly accurate observational constraints on dynamic seafloor topography, it is the time to update plume buoyancy fluxes globally and build a scaling law between the surface dynamic topography and plume buoyancy flux.

Here, we conduct thermomechanical models to study plume-lithosphere interaction and hotspot swell support. We use the finite-element code ASPECT in a high-resolution, regional, 3D Cartesian framework. We consider composite diffusion-dislocation creep rheology, and a free-surface boundary at the top. We systematically investigate the effects of plume excess temperature (∆T), plume radius (rp), plate velocity (vp), plate age, and mantle rheological parameters. From these results, we develop a scaling law that relates swell geometry to plume parameters. We find that swell height and cross-sectional area (Aswell) have a robust power-law relationship with QB. Aswell shows an almost linear dependence and provides the most reliable geometric indicator of QB. Empirical fitting further reveals that rp has a dominantly positive correlation with swell height, width, and Aswell, while ∆T contributes secondarily. On the contrary, vp has a relatively small (and mostly negative) effect on swell parameters. Higher viscosities in the asthenosphere lead to wider swells, higher Aswell andQswell. Applying these empirical fits to Hawaii indicates a minimum QB of ~3,860 kg/s.

Figure 1. Results of example cases at 300 Myr. Each row represents the cases A2, A7, and C7. The left column displays the potential temperature isosurface (contours at 1500K and 1700K), while the right column presents the dynamic topography.

We demonstrate that previous swell-geometry-based estimates underestimate the true buoyancy fluxes of the underlying upwelling, partly because plumes spread faster than plate motion for high QB and low vp. The empirical fits developed here highlight the need for future models to incorporate melting, compositional effects, and variable lithospheric structure.

As a final step, we invert these predictive fittings and apply them to intraplate hotspot swells in all ocean basins to quantify the heat and material fluxes carried by plumes on Earth. This effort will help to inform the Core-Mantle Boundary heat flux.

How to cite: Ma, Z., Ballmer, M., and Manjón-Cabeza Córdoba, A.: New Scaling between Plume Buoyancy Fluxes and Dynamic Topography from Numerical Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-720, 2026.

EGU26-2256 | PICO | GD1.2

Seismic signatures: mixing with a tomographic filter and identifying with cluster analysis 

Sheng-An Shih, Frederic Deschamps, and Jun Su

During the past 2 decades, data coverage and methodological developments have considerably improved the resolution of seismic tomography maps, refining our mapping of the deep Earth’s mantle structure. Nevertheless, the uneven distributions in sources (the earthquakes) and receptors (the seismic stations) leads to non-uniqueness of the solution and requires the prescription of a priori information (mostly damping and smoothing), the effect of which is to smear out seismic images and degrade their effective resolution. Alternatively, statistical quantities have been used to investigate the nature, purely thermal or thermo-chemical, of the structures observed by seismic tomography. In particular, it has long been recognized that the statistical distribution of shear-velocity anomalies (dlnVS) in the lowermost mantle shows some degree of asymmetry in the form of a slow velocity tail, and that this slow tail is associated with the large low shear-wave velocity provinces (LLSVPs), the prominent feature on lowermost mantle tomographic maps. This bimodal distribution appears from around 2200 km and persists towards the deeper mantle. Yet, the phase transition to post-perovskite (PPv) at depth ~2700 km, if not happens globally, implies a trimodal distribution for dlnVS. Here, we bring new insights on these questions. First, we investigate the effect of the seismic tomography ‘operator’ on seismic velocity anomalies triggered by different possible lowermost mantle thermo-chemical structures. For this, we first run simulations of thermal and thermo-chemical convection including or not the post-perovskite phase, and we calculate synthetic velocity anomalies predicted by these simulations. We then apply to these synthetic velocity anomalies a tomographic filter built for the tomographic model HMSL-SP06. We show that seismic signatures corresponding to different materials (regular mantle, thermo-chemical piles and PPv) are clearly distinct on statistical distribution of unfiltered shear-and compressional velocity anomalies, dlnVS and dlnVP, but get mixed or partially mixed after applying the filter. Interestingly, for synthetic velocity anomalies built from thermo-chemical simulations, a low velocity tail clearly appears on dlnVS histograms, but not on dlnVP histograms, similar to what is observed in real seismic tomography maps. For synthetic velocity anomalies built from purely thermal simulations, dlnVS histograms do not feature any low velocity tail, and distribution histograms for both dlnVS and dlnVP are fairly Gaussian. Overall, our results therefore support the hypothesis that the LLSVPs observed at the bottom of the mantle are composed of hot, chemically differentiated material. They further show that the mixing of seismic signatures due to tomographic filter, implying the statistical distribution of dlnVS and dlnVP may be richer and more complex than it appears to be from seismic tomography models. Acknowledging the mixing of seismic signatures inherent to tomography models, we then apply cluster analysis with trimodal distribution to four recent tomographic models: GLAD-M35, REVEAL, SPiRaL-1.4, and TX2019slab.  We identify three velocity clusters, slow, neutral, and fast, which we associate with thermo-chemical piles, regular mantle, and PPv. Based on this analysis, we provide a probability map of the three clusters, which may be used to better understand the lowermost mantle structure and facilitate future geodynamic studies. 

How to cite: Shih, S.-A., Deschamps, F., and Su, J.: Seismic signatures: mixing with a tomographic filter and identifying with cluster analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2256, 2026.

EGU26-2345 | PICO | GD1.2

Research progress with Thermal Lattice Boltzmann Method to study early Earth 

Peter Mora, Gabriele Morra, Leila Honarbakh, Colin Jackson, and Biyaya Karki

The Thermal Lattice Boltzmann Method (TLBM) models finite Prandtl number thermal convection and multiphase flow at high Rayleigh numbers in the turbulent regime. As such, it offers a powerful means to study early earth which was shaped by magma oceans (MOs) where turbulent convection governed the transport of heat, silicates and volatiles. Ab-initio molecular dynamics shows that pressure and temperature dependent viscosity of silicates can vary by many orders of magnitude resulting in stratified Prandtl numbers ranging from much lower to much higher than unity spanning up to 3 – 5 orders of magnitude. We incorporated such P-T dependent viscosity into the Thermal LBM to explore the impact of stratified Pr on the convective dynamics of turbulent magma oceans. We find that the Pr stratification has a dramatic influence on turbulent flow, with strong vorticity only occurring at shallower depths above 1000 km for colder adiabats which implies greater chemical equilibration. We also combined the TLBM and multiphase LBM to model iron-silicate segregation due to large iron-rich impactors in a 3000 km thick magma ocean with a Prandtl number of unity. These studies indicate that thermal convection exerts only a modest influence on the spatial distribution of iron in MOs. Our results reveal that the time for iron droplets to fully settle lies in the range 15 – 30 days, and that vigorous thermal convection tends to confine fragments of smaller impactors to deeper regions of the MO, whereas, fragments of larger impactors disperse throughout all depths of the MO.

How to cite: Mora, P., Morra, G., Honarbakh, L., Jackson, C., and Karki, B.: Research progress with Thermal Lattice Boltzmann Method to study early Earth, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2345, 2026.

EGU26-2595 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

The Mantle Fe3+/ΣFe Ratio Has Doubled Since the Early Archean 

Wenyong Duan, Xiaoxi Zhu, Taras Gerya, Xin Zhou, and Jiacheng Tian

The mantle’s redox properties play a pivotal role in regulating the exchange of redox budget between Earth’s deep interior and surface, ultimately influencing the accumulation of atmospheric oxygen and the evolution of life. However, how mantle redox state developed, particularly the mantle source associated with mid-ocean ridge-like settings, remains a subject of ongoing debate. Here, we employed thermodynamic-thermomechanical numerical simulations to explore the redox properties of melts formed under mid-ocean ridge-like settings in both Archean and modern conditions. The results of these simulations were systematically compared with an extensive database of mid-ocean ridge-like rocks, dating back as far as 3.8 Ga, to reconstruct the mantle’s redox evolution since the early Archean. This reconstruction utilized a novel and reliable redox proxy, the whole-rock Fe3+/ΣFe ratio, by integrating forward numerical modeling with thermodynamic inversion based on natural observations. This ratio is defined as the primary proxy for redox budget variations under mantle reference conditions, especially when the influence of other minor redox-sensitive elements (e.g., carbon, sulfur) is negligible. Our findings demonstrate that the mantle’s average Fe3+/ΣFe ratio has approximately doubled since the early Archean. Moreover, our calculations suggest that the ancient ultra-low-oxygen-fugacity mantle found in modern oceanic lithosphere results from an initially reduced origin, rather than deep and hot partial melting. By linking the non-monotonic evolution to geological evidence of tectonic activity, we suggest that the mantle’s redox history may reflect significant tectonic reorganization events. Our findings highlight the intrinsic coupling between Earth’s oxygen-rich environment and tectono-magmatic processes.

How to cite: Duan, W., Zhu, X., Gerya, T., Zhou, X., and Tian, J.: The Mantle Fe3+/ΣFe Ratio Has Doubled Since the Early Archean, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2595, 2026.

EGU26-2708 | PICO | GD1.2

Stability of thermochemical piles of different origins 

Claudia Stein, Henry W. Sitte, Carolin Weber, and Ulrich Hansen

As the origin of the stable large low shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs) beneath Africa and the Pacific is still unclear, we numerically consider two possible scenarios. Structures can form either from a primordial layer or a growing layer above the core-mantle boundary (CMB). The primordial layer is considered as a remnant of the early magma ocean phase, while the growing layer results from core-mantle interaction. In our 2D Cartesian study we analyze a diffusive influx of iron-rich core material.

We investigate the temporal and spatial stability of thermochemical piles under the influence of rheological parameters. Our model rheology is given by a viscosity depending on temperature, stress, depth and composition. Furthermore, we also investigate the effect of a depth-dependent thermal expansion coefficient. As all these parameters affect the strength of convection, they ultimately also have an impact on the stability of piles. Increasing the ratio between the top and bottom viscosity or expansivity leads to longer pile lifetimes and more stable piles. Therefore, piles can have formed in the Archean mantle but will have broadened and stabilized in time with the cooling of the mantle.

Typically, we find that these piles anchor thermochemical plumes, so that long-lived plumes exist in the center of piles. Less stable plumes occur at the edges of piles for a few million years as piles move and merge. The movement of piles results is a consequence of slabs pushing them around or of thermal plumes attracting dense piles.

How to cite: Stein, C., Sitte, H. W., Weber, C., and Hansen, U.: Stability of thermochemical piles of different origins, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2708, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2708, 2026.

EGU26-2842 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

Thermal Lattice Boltzmann Modeling of Archean Continent Formation Using a Rothman–Keller Multiphase Framework 

Amen Bargees, Simone Pilia, Peter Mora, Gabriele Morra, Jian Kuang, and Leila Honarbakh

The formation and stabilization of continental crust during the Archean remains a fundamental problem in Earth sciences, requiring numerical models that can self-consistently capture multiphase flow, melt segregation, and thermochemical buoyancy within a convecting mantle. Here, we employ a thermal Lattice Boltzmann Method (TLBM) based on the Rothman–Keller multiphase formulation to investigate continent formation in a dynamically evolving Archean mantle. The model resolves two interacting lithological components representing basaltic crust and peridotitic mantle, coupled to a thermal field through the Boussinesq approximation. Melt generation, extraction, and retention are explicitly incorporated, allowing density and viscosity to evolve continuously as functions of temperature, melt fraction, and composition. Melt extracted from basalt is treated as an immiscible, low-density phase representing Tonalite–Trondhjemite–Granodiorite (TTG) crust. Unlike traditional marker-based or fixed-density approaches, this framework enables self-consistent tracking of compositional evolution without prescribing rigid phase boundaries. Simulations are conducted in annular geometry to approximate spherical curvature while retaining computational efficiency, with spatial resolution ranging from ∼15 km near the surface to ∼8 km at the core–mantle boundary (CMB). Results show that thermally driven melt production and compositional differentiation naturally generate buoyant, long-lived TTG crust that thickens and stabilizes against recycling. Residual basalt forms a denser layer beneath the TTG crust, contributing to lithospheric stabilization while remaining susceptible to recycling under cold, dense conditions.

How to cite: Bargees, A., Pilia, S., Mora, P., Morra, G., Kuang, J., and Honarbakh, L.: Thermal Lattice Boltzmann Modeling of Archean Continent Formation Using a Rothman–Keller Multiphase Framework, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2842, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2842, 2026.

The existence and eruptibility of mantle plumes in the Hadean-early Archean mantle are fundamental to interpreting the scarcity and timing of komatiites and other ultramafic magmas. Existing approaches often rely on parameterized thermal evolution or idealized forced-plume setups, so they rarely test plume eruptibility in fully convecting, high-Rayleigh whole-mantle dynamics. We use a thermal lattice-Boltzmann mantle convection approach with a multiphase formulation to test whether thermochemical plumes in a hot, vigorous, post-magma-ocean mantle can dynamically reach the surface, and under which conditions they are expected to erupt rather than stall and pond.

We simulate whole-mantle convection in annular geometry, solving Boussinesq Stokes flow coupled to heat advection-diffusion, and explore Hadean-like thermal structures at high Rayleigh numbers. Deformation is governed by nonlinear, visco-plastic rheology with Reynolds temperature-dependent viscosity, allowing transitions between weak- and strong-lid regimes via depth-dependent yield stress. Thermochemical plumes are represented by introducing a dense (e.g., eclogite-rich) component in the deep mantle that can be entrained into rising hot material, enabling us to quantify how compositional loading modifies plume ascent, head-tail structure, and interaction with the lithosphere. Melting is implemented within the simulations: melt generation, extraction, and retention are explicitly coupled so that density and viscosity evolve continuously as function of temperature, melt fraction, and composition.

Across the parameter suite, we track plume head trajectories, maximum ascent depth, and the spatiotemporal distribution of melt production/extraction to map an “eruption window” in Rayleigh-rheology-composition space. We compare this dynamical window with the observed timing and abundance of komatiites, and infer how thermochemical structure near the core-mantle boundary may have regulated the longevity and eruptibility of early Earth plumes.

 

How to cite: Pilia, S., Bargees, A., Mora, P., and Morra, G.: Can Hadean thermochemical plumes erupt? Insights from a high-Rayleigh number thermal lattice-Boltzmann mantle convection model, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4360, 2026.

EGU26-4522 | PICO | GD1.2

Dynamical layering in planetary mantles 

Ulrich Hansen and Sabine Dude

The thermal history of the Earth, it’s chemical differentiation and also the reaction of the interior with the

atmosphere is largely determined by convective processes within the Earth’s mantle. A simple physical model,

resembling the situation,shortly after core formation, consists of a compositionally stable stratified mantle, as

resulting from fractional crystallization of the magma ocean. The early mantle is subject to heating from below

by the Earth’s core and cooling from the top through the atmosphere. Additionally internal heat sources will

serve to power the mantle dynamics. Under such circumstances double diffusive convection will eventually lead

to self organized layer formation, even without the preexisting jumps is material properties. We have conducted

2D and 3D numerical experiments in Cartesian and spherical geometry, taking into account mantle realistic

values, especially a strong temperature dependent viscosity and a pressure dependent thermal expansivity . The

experiments show that in a wide parameter range. distinct convective layers evolve in this scenario. The layering

strongly controls the heat loss from the core and decouples the dynamics in the lower mantle from the upper

part. With time, individual layers grow on the expense of others and merging of layers does occur. We observe

several events of intermittent breakdown of individual layers. Altogether an evolution emerges, characterized by

continuous but also spontaneous changes in the mantle structure, ranging from multiple to single layer flow. Such

an evolutionary path of mantle convection allows to interpret phenomena ranging from stagnation of slabs at

various depth to variations in the chemical signature of mantle upwellings in a new framework

How to cite: Hansen, U. and Dude, S.: Dynamical layering in planetary mantles, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4522, 2026.

EGU26-4906 | PICO | GD1.2

Whence the Missing Hadean Rock Record? 

Stephen J. Mojzsis

Do the various continental crustal growth curves formulated from disparate geochemical models robustly inform us as to why the Hadean (pre-4 Ga) rock record is basically non-existent? Is its absence due to extrinsic effects (bombardment)? Or, could it be that little or no continental crust existed at first? On the other hand, was this record essentially lost over time by recycling processes? For instance, the biggest problem with searching for any information about the history of plate tectonics is that the process erases evidence of its own existence. The age of oceanic crust averages about 70 Ma and is not older than 200 Ma because plate tectonics keeps recycling it (except for some old ophiolites). Most of the crust by surface area is oceanic, whereas most crust by volume is continental. The mean age of continental crust (ca. 2 Ga) is 36× greater than that of oceanic crust because its buoyancy prevents it from subducting except for loss to subduction via erosion. The overall decline in preserved continental crust based simply on the detrital zircon record shows a roughly 1.4 Gyr e-folding time. The residence time of the lithosphere is the average length of time that it will remain as a geochemical entity; this is estimated to be about 500-750 Myr. The value is about half of the observed e-folding time for the pre-Phanerozoic (>542 Ma) continental crust, but is close to the average mixing timescale since the Archean of about 420-440 Myr for primitive mantle, recycled continental crust and mantle residue. Assuming the residence time of 750 Myr is a good estimate for the half-life of continental crust, then the e-folding time is in broad agreement with both the zircon record and model calculations of crustal reworking. The zircon record is strongly biased to continental crust, because zircon is most commonly found in granites and granitoids, which constitute the major rock fraction of the continents.  The trends in the detrital zircon data can be interpreted to represent decreasing preservation rather than increasing production, of continental crust. 

How to cite: Mojzsis, S. J.: Whence the Missing Hadean Rock Record?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4906, 2026.

EGU26-5529 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

Formation of calcium silicate perovskite above the core-mantle boundary during solidification of Earth’s magma ocean 

Tianhua Wang, James Badro, Razvan Caracas, Héloïse Gendre, and Cécile Hébert

Calcium silicate perovskite (CaPv) is the host for many large ion lithophile elements including the heat-producing elements in the lower mantle. Whether, when, and where it forms during the solidification of the magma ocean is fundamental to understanding the geochemical and geodynamical evolution of the early Earth and the trace element distribution in the lower mantle. In this study, we performed first-principles molecular dynamics simulations to investigate the partitioning behavior of Ca (alongside other alkali-earth elements, Sr and Ba) between bridgmanite and molten pyrolite. Our results show that the bridgmanite-melt partition coefficient of Ca remains smaller than 1 along the liquidus across the lower mantle, and decreases further between the magma ocean liquidus and solidus, indicating that Ca is incompatible in bridgmanite at all relevant crystallization conditions in the lower mantle. This results in a progressive enrichment of Ca in the magma ocean as it solidifies, leading unavoidably to the crystallization of CaPv during the final stages of solidification in the deep mantle. Laser-heated diamond anvil cell experiments performed to replicate the crystallization of pyrolitic melt in the same conditions as our simulations confirm the crystallization of CaPv in the last stages of solidification. From Ca to Sr to Ba, the bridgmanite-melt partition coefficients decrease by orders of magnitude, indicating a significant enrichment of these large ion lithophile trace elements in the residual melt. Combined with previous experimental studies at lower P-T conditions, our findings infer that both large ion lithophile elements and their host, CaPv, will be concentrated in the deep mantle at the end of magma ocean solidification.

How to cite: Wang, T., Badro, J., Caracas, R., Gendre, H., and Hébert, C.: Formation of calcium silicate perovskite above the core-mantle boundary during solidification of Earth’s magma ocean, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5529, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5529, 2026.

EGU26-5569 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

Redox Controls on Sulfur Degassing in the Magma Ocean 

Dong Wang, Wenzhong Wang, Zhongqing Wu, and Razvan Caracas

Degassing of the magma ocean shaped the Earth’s early atmosphere and volatile budget. Despite its fundamental importance, the oxidation conditions of the magma ocean and the associated degassing processes remain poorly constrained. Sulfur, an abundant volatile element with multiple valence states, provides a sensitive tracer of redox-dependent degassing, making it an ideal probe for these processes.

Here, we present the first systematic investigation of sulfur degassing under realistic magma ocean conditions typical of the beginning of the Haden, using ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. Our results reveal that sulfur volatility and its speciation in the gas phase are strongly controlled by redox conditions: oxidizing conditions make sulfur highly volatile as sulfur oxides, reducing conditions keep it bound to the silicate melt. In view of our results, the observations of sulfur depletion in the Earth today, can be explained if degassing of the early magmas from planetesimals during accretion occurred under relatively reducing conditions. Sulfur degassing at the magma ocean stage of the early Earth brought reducing species to the early atmosphere, with the sulfur vapor phases being favorable for the prebiotic synthesis of amino acids. Our sulfur degassing results establish a direct link between the depletion of volatile elements, the redox state of the magma ocean, and the composition of the early atmosphere, providing new insights into the evolution of early Earth.

How to cite: Wang, D., Wang, W., Wu, Z., and Caracas, R.: Redox Controls on Sulfur Degassing in the Magma Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5569, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5569, 2026.

Cooling of the core provides a substantial part of the mantle heat budget, while mantle convection determines the heat flux across the core-mantle boundary, hence the existence or not of a planetary dynamo. Thus, the thermal evolutions of core and mantle should be treated in a coupled manner. To accomplish this, the core has normally been coupled into mantle convection simulations assuming that it has an adiabatic temperature profile and can thus be characterized by single temperature (e.g. the CMB temperature) (e.g. Nakagawa & Tackley, 2014 GCubed), allowing a simple 0-dimensional parameterization such as a uniform "heat bath" or one including inner core growth (e.g. Buffett et al, 1996 JGR).

However, when the CMB heat flux FCMB becomes lower than adiabatic, core convection no longer occurs (as evidenced by no magnetic field on Venus and Mars) and thus the core temperature profile is not adiabatic. FCMB can even become negative in models with a layer of dense heat-producing-element (HPE)-enriched material above the CMB: assuming this heats the entire core uniformly is unrealistic as heating from above is a very inefficient way of heating a layer. Another end-member approximation is to decouple the core and mantle temperatures in the latter case (Cheng et al, 2025 JGR).

To treat cases where FCMB is sub-adiabatic or negative, a 1-D conductive core model is presented. When the temperature profile is adiabatic to super-adiabatic, an eddy diffusivity acting on the super-adiabatic temperature parameterizes heat transport by turbulent convection and keeps the temperature profile very close to adiabatic (see Abe, 1997 PEPI). When the temperature profile is sub-adiabatic, normal thermal diffusion is the dominant heat transport process. Compressibility, crystallization of an inner core and the presence of light elements are included.

A MATLAB implementation is presented. Then, results from coupling this 1-D core model to 2-D thermo-chemical mantle evolution models using StagYY (Tackley, 2008 PEPI) are presented. When FCMB is always super-adiabatic, similar results are obtained for 1-D and 0-D models, but:

(i) Results for a post-giant-impact core superadiabatic temperature profile with the outermost core extremely hot were presented by Tackley (2025 AGU Meeting; https://agu.confex.com/agu/agu25/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1909859). A thin, convecting layer forms at the top of the core and rapidly thickens until the whole core becomes adiabatic again.

(ii) For an HPE-enriched dense layer above the core-mantle boundary the layer and CMB temperatures to rise quickly if the core is decoupled from the mantle, slowly for a 0-D coupled core model, and at an intermediate rate with this 1-D core model. The layer temperature has implications for the formation of plumes, as well as other thermal evolution characteristics.

In conclusion, the new 1-D core model facilitates more realistic core-mantle coupled evolution simulations in the case that CMB heat flux is lower than that conducted down the core adiabat or even into the core.

How to cite: Tackley, P. J.: A one-dimensional core model for coupling to mantle convection simulations: Equations and results, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5829, 2026.

EGU26-5902 | PICO | GD1.2

The shaping of the terrestrial planet’s interiors by late accretions 

Simone Marchi and Jun Korenaga

Terrestrial planets—Mercury, Venus, Earth and Mars—formed by the accretion of smaller objects, each planet with their own timescale. The Earth was probably the latest terrestrial planet to form and reached about 99% of its final mass within about 60–100 Myr after condensation of the first solids in the Solar System. This contribution examines the disproportionate role of the last approximately 1% of Earth’s growth, or late accretion, in controlling its long-term interior evolution, and in particular metal-silicate mixing and bulk volatile budget. 

The coupling of impact and geodynamical simulations reveals underappreciated consequences of Earth’s late accretion with implications for a correct interpretation of the geochemical and geodynamical properties of the present Earth’s mantle. Similar implications are expected for Venus and Mars, and are also likely to occur and modulate the interior evolution of rocky exoplanets.

How to cite: Marchi, S. and Korenaga, J.: The shaping of the terrestrial planet’s interiors by late accretions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5902, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5902, 2026.

EGU26-7052 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

Fate of primordial noble gases during core-mantle differentiation from ab initio simulations 

Yajie Zhao, Tianhua Wang, Razvan Caracas, Wenzhong Wang, and Zhongqing Wu

Early planetary accretion and giant impacts likely generated a global magma ocean on the proto-Earth, enabling extensive dissolution of primordial volatiles from the solar nebula into silicate melts. During subsequent core-mantle differentiation, the partitioning of noble gases between pyrolitic silicate melts and iron-sulfur (Fe-S) melts would have controlled their redistribution and long-term preservation in Earth’s deep interior. The contrasting noble gas signatures observed in mid-ocean ridge basalts and mantle plume sources, particularly in He/Ne ratios, motivated the existence of a deep primitive reservoir potentially linked to early core-mantle differentiation. Here, we use ab initio molecular dynamics simulations combined with thermodynamic integration to quantify the partition coefficients of He, Ne, Ar, Kr, and Xe between pyrolitic silicate melts and Fe-S melts. We further assess the effects of melt composition by comparing pyrolite with MgSiO3 melts and Fe-S with metallic iron melts. Our results reveal systematic variations in noble gas partitioning with atomic size and melt chemistry. Based on these partitioning coefficients, we estimate the potential noble gas inventories preserved in the mantle and core. These results provide new quantitative constraints on the fate of primordial noble gases and the origin of deep-mantle volatile reservoirs.

How to cite: Zhao, Y., Wang, T., Caracas, R., Wang, W., and Wu, Z.: Fate of primordial noble gases during core-mantle differentiation from ab initio simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7052, 2026.

Geodynamic models require constraints from phase equilibria to infer how changes in phase abundance and composition affect physical properties. When applying such models on a planetary scale, performance becomes especially crucial. Therefore, computationally costly methods, such as Gibbs free energy minimisation, are no longer a viable option for predicting phase equilibria directly. We present a machine learning (ML) surrogate that can approximate phase equilibrium predictions for silicate mantles of rocky planets. ML surrogates have proven to be useful tools for approximating complex physics-based simulations in various fields, as they are computationally efficient, highly scalable, and fully compliant with GPU-based computation in high-performance computing clusters and automatic differentiation.

We calibrated a neural network surrogate on a large synthetic dataset (n = 2.0×106) generated using MAGEMin (Riel et al., 2022) and the thermodynamic dataset from Stixrude and Lithgow-Bertelloni (2022). The training dataset ranges over typical upper to transition-zone mantle conditions in terms of pressure, temperature, and bulk rock composition. The model architecture and calibration strategy presented can accurately predict the molar proportions and molar oxide composition of multicomponent solid solutions from pressure, temperature, and bulk rock composition. Constraints on mass balance and closure of compositional variables are actively enforced during calibration through additional physics-informed misfits, in addition to the data-driven convergence. Evaluation of the model indicates uncertainties of less than ±0.02 molmol-1 for the prediction of phase fractions and less than ±0.005 molmol-1 for most compositional variables within solid solutions for the phases considered. The performance assessment shows a systematic increase in computational speed of two orders of magnitude when comparing the prediction between the ML surrogate and MAGEMin. Moving the computation to a GPU can improve performance by up to 5 orders of magnitude, <100ns per point, for large data sets of 10⁵ points, compared to the Gibbs free energy minimiser.

In this presentation, the ML surrogate will be used to map the stability of wadsleyite, ringwoodite and akimotoite within the Martian mantle. This ultra-fast prediction method enables the incorporation of poorly constrained minor components (e.g. Na₂O) using a Monte Carlo approach. Our results demonstrate the significant influence of these minor components on phase stability. This, in turn, determines seismic velocities and can be associated with water storage in nominally anhydrous minerals.

 

[1] Riel, N., Kaus, B. J. P., Green, E. C. R., & Berlie, N. (2022). MAGEMin, an efficient Gibbs energy minimizer: Application to igneous systems. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 23.

[2] Stixrude, L. & Lithgow-Bertelloni, C. (2022), Thermal expansivity, heat capacity and bulk modulus of the mantle, Geophysical Journal International, 228 (2), 1119–1149. 

How to cite: Hartmeier, P. and Lanari, P.: Machine learning is all you need: A surrogate model for phase equilibrium prediction for planetary-scale models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7087, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7087, 2026.

EGU26-7098 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

Efficient volatile exchange between atmosphere and magma ocean 

Xuecheng Yang, Cédric Gillmann, and Paul Tackley

The formation and earliest evolution of a secondary atmosphere is tightly linked to its underlying magma ocean. Our current understanding of this coupled evolution is mainly built on thermal evolution coupled to chemical equilibrium models, which inherently assumes instant chemical exchange between the atmosphere and magma ocean. However, some recent numerical models [1,2] have challenged this assumption.  In this work, we address the issue both theoretically and numerically.

Volatile transport within the bulk of the magma ocean can, to a certain extent, be approximated as a passive particle diffusion process. Even when the buoyancy of volatiles is neglected, we demonstrate through two complementary approaches that the bulk transport is rapid. First, we extend a theoretical model for turbulent diffusion whose predictions align well with numerical simulations, which enables to replace empirical constants with more fundamental parameters. When extrapolated to magma ocean conditions, the characteristic diffusion timescale is found to be significantly shorter than the expected lifetime of the magma ocean. Second, we perform numerical experiments by initializing a passive scalar field at mid-depth in a statistically steady-state turbulent convection simulation. The evolution of its distribution, governed by an advection-diffusion equation, shows that the initial central peak flattens within just a few free-fall time units, which is a direct indicator of vigorous turbulent mixing.

The seemingly inefficient transport observed in some recent studies may be attributed to the behavior of a compositional boundary layer, which forms in conjunction with a laminar velocity boundary layer near the top surface. We analytically derive the composition flux across a no-slip boundary layer, which is supposed to scale with the chemical diffusivity and the square root of a characteristic Reynolds number. Numerical simulations show good agreement with this prediction. Nonetheless, this boundary-layer bottleneck is unlikely to significantly limit vertical volatile transport under realistic magma ocean conditions, for several reasons:
- Volatile parcels could grow in size as they approach the boundary layer, when buoyancy becomes significant and  the "passive particles" assumption no longer holds
- Even a no-slip boundary layer can be turbulent at the relevant extremely high Rayleigh number, where vertical transport is much more efficient than in a low-Ra laminar boundary layer
- The atmosphere-magma ocean interface is a free-surface, instead of a no-slip or free-slip wall

Building on recent findings that rotation significantly alters magma ocean dynamics (e.g., [3]), our future research will incorporate rotational effects to develop a more comprehensive understanding of volatile transport efficiency.

References:
[1] Salvador, A. & Samuel, H.  Icarus 390, 115265 (2023).
[2] Walbecq, A., Samuel, H. & Limare, A. Icarus 434, 116513 (2025).
[3] Maas, C. & Hansen, U. EPSL 513, 81–94 (2019).

How to cite: Yang, X., Gillmann, C., and Tackley, P.: Efficient volatile exchange between atmosphere and magma ocean, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7098, 2026.

EGU26-7328 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

The Formation of Mars' Basal Melt Layer 

Kang Wei Lim, Charles-Édouard Boukaré, Henri Samuel, and James Badro

Recent analyses of seismic data recorded on Mars suggests a heterogeneous mantle where a global molten silicate layer lies above the core, followed by a partially crystallized layer (Samuel et al., 2023). The formation of such mantle structure is inherently link to the planet's early evolution when a global magma ocean was present and its crystallization process. Previous studies have shown that mantle overturn events during/after crystallization can produce a silicate layer enriched in iron and heat-producing elements that resides above the core-mantle boundary (CMB) (e.g., Tosi et al., 2013; Plesa et al., 2014; Samuel et al., 2021). However, processes such as melt transport, phase change, and chemical fractionation are not accounted for which are important in the describing the mantle's long-term evolution. By accounting for the aforementioned processes (Boukaré et al., 2025), we show that for the first time, a stratified melt layer can be formed and preserved over geological timescales in a self-consistent model. We observe that during the early stages of solidification, iron-rich silicates produced by chemical fractionation at the shallow mantle are delivered to the CMB. The presence of iron-rich materials at the CMB not only reduces the melting temperature of the silicates, but also produces a stably stratified melt structure at the bottom of the mantle that is resistant to chemical and thermal erosion over long timescales.

How to cite: Lim, K. W., Boukaré, C.-É., Samuel, H., and Badro, J.: The Formation of Mars' Basal Melt Layer, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7328, 2026.

EGU26-7578 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

Evolution of deep mantle reservoirs after the magma ocean: the influence of melt extraction 

Laura Lark, Charles-Edouard Boukaré, James Badro, and Henri Samuel

Evolution of deep mantle reservoirs after the magma ocean: the influence of melt extraction

Laura Lark, ChEd Boukaré, James Badro, Henri Samuel

 

Earth’s magma ocean stage and aftermath likely produced a reservoir of iron and trace element enriched silicate melt at the base of the mantle, termed a “basal magma ocean” (BMO) (Boukaré et al., 2025; Labrosse et al., 2007). As the BMO crystallized, its cumulates would likely be buoyant both because iron would behave somewhat incompatibly and because melt under extreme pressure is compressed to similar (or even higher) density than crystal of the same composition (Caracas et al., 2019). Consequentially, BMO crystallization would have been self-limiting, in that heat loss is necessary for crystallization to progress, but crystallization forms a layer of cumulates which insulate the BMO, reducing heat loss. Therefore, the evolution of the cumulates of the BMO interacting with convection in the overlying mantle is extremely important for the thermal evolution of the deep planet, with implications for BMO longevity and core dynamo generation.

 

We investigate the co-evolution of the BMO, its cumulates, and the overlying mantle with the fluid dynamics code Bambari (Boukaré, 2025) which incorporates melting, melt-crystal fractionation, and melt migration into a mantle convection model with coupled core (0-D heat reservoir). We are exploring the evolution of cumulates from the freezing BMO and how this affects BMO heat loss. For example, we vary the initial concentration of heat-producing elements in the BMO vs. solid mantle (γ) and observe that piles form preferentially in models with a more strongly heated basal magma ocean. At the base of piles, melting and drainage of iron-rich melts results in overall depletion of iron from piles. The lower density reinforces piling behavior, which strengthens melting and iron drainage (Figure 1). We are continuing to evaluate regimes of piling and implications for heat loss and interaction with the overlying mantle.

Figure 1. Snapshots of model mantle composition, cropped to show deep mantle only. Piles in convecting mantle overlie freezing basal magma ocean (white above melt fraction of 0.9). Model with more strongly heated BMO (higher ) shows more depleted upwellings within piles (yellow arrows).

 

References

Boukaré, C.-É., Badro, J., & Samuel, H. (2025). Solidification of Earth’s mantle led inevitably to a basal magma ocean. Nature, 640(8057), 114–119. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08701-z

Caracas, R., Hirose, K., Nomura, R., & Ballmer, M. D. (2019). Melt–crystal density crossover in a deep magma ocean. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 516, 202–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2019.03.031

Labrosse, S., Hernlund, J. W., & Coltice, N. (2007). A crystallizing dense magma ocean at the base of the Earth’s mantle. Nature, 450(7171), 866–869. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06355

How to cite: Lark, L., Boukaré, C.-E., Badro, J., and Samuel, H.: Evolution of deep mantle reservoirs after the magma ocean: the influence of melt extraction, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7578, 2026.

EGU26-7700 | PICO | GD1.2 | Highlight

Tide-Driven Magma Ocean Convection as the Origin of the Lunar Crustal Dichotomy 

Daniel Astudillo, Paul Tackley, and Diogo Lourenço

The Lunar crustal dichotomy, expressed in farside-nearside differences in crustal thickness, volcanism and surface composition, does not yet have a well-established origin. Multiple mechanisms proposed in the literature can explain some aspects of the dichotomy; however no single model is able to fully explain the entirety of its observed features. We hypothesize that all aspects of the dichotomy are related and originate from the solidification of the Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO). Given that the dichotomy is aligned in reference to Earth, we investigate if Earth’s tidal influence on the LMO, when the Moon was in proximity to the Roche limit, can explain this dichotomy.

We investigate this hypothesis with numerical models of lunar evolution, using a modified version of StagYY (Tackley, 2008) that includes three-dimensional gravity accounting for tidal effects. We model the LMO solidification starting from a fully molten Moon, followed by the onset of solid-state mantle convection.  

Our models show that an asymmetric degree-two convection pattern can emerge during the early stages of the LMO solidification. This tide-driven magma ocean convection is characterized by two large plumes on the nearside and farside, with downwelling in the perpendicular plane at the poles. The nearside plume upwells faster than the farside plume given the asymmetries in the tidal forces between each side of the Moon. This convection pattern inhibits both the solidification of the LMO, and the compaction of the solid fraction, resulting in a convecting mush. Melt segregates towards the sides of the plume heads, where velocities are lowest, forming a low crystallinity magma ocean that is continuously replenished by decompression melting of the mostly solidified mantle that rises through the plumes. The LMO solidifies near the surface as material travels towards the perpendicular plane and subducts, creating a barrier that isolates the two hemispheres. Differences in the timing of melt segregation and the rate of decompressive melting eventually create significant hemispheric chemical contrasts, which ultimately can lead to all observed aspects of the crustal dichotomy of the Moon.

Reference

Tackley, P. J. (2008). Modelling compressible mantle convection with large viscosity contrasts in a three-dimensional spherical shell using the yin-yang grid. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 171(1-4), 7-18.

How to cite: Astudillo, D., Tackley, P., and Lourenço, D.: Tide-Driven Magma Ocean Convection as the Origin of the Lunar Crustal Dichotomy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7700, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7700, 2026.

EGU26-7793 | PICO | GD1.2

The role of the mantle decompaction layer in Hadean volcanism 

Yusuke Kubota, John Rudge, and Bradford Foley

How the very early Earth lost its internal heat remains a subject of debate. Early Earth may have been characterized by extensive magmatism due to a hot mantle, which then acted as the primary heat loss mechanism, or been more volcanically quiescent, where heat conduction through the lithosphere served as the primary heat loss mechanism. The primary mode of early Earth heat loss would then strongly influence tectonics and crust formation, the long-term thermal evolution of the interior, and surface environments where life could originate in the Hadean or Eoarchean.

Our recent crustal evolution model suggests that mantle melt production and mafic extrusive volcanism must have been limited prior to 3.6 Ga to remain consistent with Hf isotope data. We hypothesized that these geochemical constraints require a 'quiescent Earth' with a low melt production rate (<0.6 mm/yr). However, the actual magma supply is governed by complex geodynamic factors: specifically, the mechanics of melt generation, ascent, and accumulation at the mantle-crust boundary. Understanding these physical mechanisms is critical, particularly when evaluating high-flux regimes such as heat-pipe tectonics, which may be incompatible with the low rates inferred from the geochemical record.

A critical phenomenon affecting this supply is the formation of a decompaction layer beneath the mantle-crust interface (Sparks and Parmentier, 1991). Since the crust acts as a rigid thermal boundary, temperatures drop rapidly near this interface. Consequently, ascending melt encounters a freezing horizon that acts as a permeability barrier, causing it to accumulate. Within this zone, the decompaction layer and accumulated magma generate significant melt overpressure relative to the solid matrix, driving magma into the plumbing system and initiating ascent. Therefore, characterizing the dynamics of the decompaction layer is crucial for understanding the physical controls on melt supply.

Recent numerical modeling of Io, an active heat-pipe body (OReilly and Davies, 1981), demonstrates that crustal thermal structure is controlled by the physics of two-phase melt transport (Spencer et al., 2020). This model suggests that magma transport is driven by mantle overpressure at the decompaction layer but limited by solidification within the plumbing system. Applying this physical framework to the Hadean, we tested which mantle dynamics and temperature ranges are compatible with the restricted melt fluxes required by the geochemical record. Preliminary results demonstrate the existence of a decompaction layer, where both effective pressure and extraction rates increase significantly with porosity. By systematically exploring the parameter space, we identify the specific mantle geodynamic conditions required to align plateau melting tectonics with the Hf isotope constraints.

How to cite: Kubota, Y., Rudge, J., and Foley, B.: The role of the mantle decompaction layer in Hadean volcanism, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7793, 2026.

EGU26-8347 | PICO | GD1.2

Effects of Surface Mobility on Relevant Mantle H2O - C Fluxes and Distribution 

Nickolas Moccetti Bardi and Paul Tackley

Through Gibbs free energy solvers combined with published experimental data, we assess the structurally bound water capacity (sH2O) of nominally anhydrous minerals, together with low and high pressure hydrous phases. These maps are implemented into a global mantle convection model to investigate the long-term evolution of the mantle water content (cH2O). A parameter study spanning a range of yield stresses is performed, with particular emphasis on the role of surface mobility in controlling volatile exchange fluxes between the mantle and the atmosphere. Across multiple simulation ensembles, surface mobility emerges as the primary control on the intensity of ingassing between the two reservoirs. Time-series autocorrelation analysis of reservoir H2O mass indicates that the mantle transition zone (MTZ) behaves as a transient, high-sH2O layer that is unable to sustain long-lived hydrated states in the absence of frequent water-rich slabs penetrating beyond 410 km depth. Principal component analysis reveals divergence in simulation evolution as a function of surface yield stress, leading to distinct H2O partitioning regimes between the MTZ and the lower mantle, with coupled increase in upper mantle cH2O dominance. This highlights the tendency of episodic or stagnant-lid regimes to sequester water at greater mantle depths relative to tectonically active planets. Bottom-up integration of our model profiles suggests a total stored mantle H2O in the order of 1–1.5 ocean masses, an amount significantly lower than previous estimates, resulting from the rapid decrease of sH2O beyond 660 km depth and subsequent ease of outgassing. Because supercriticality-enhanced extraction processes are not included and a depth-dependent background permeability restricts vertical transport, this estimate should be regarded as an upper bound. We further find that the sH2O associated with the perovskite phase is of first-order importance in determining total mantle water storage. Low convective velocities maintain relative water enrichment within the perovskite-dominated region, implying that deviations from the commonly assumed dry-perovskite composition may increase estimated storage by non-negligible amounts.

In addition, recent advances in high-pressure thermodynamic databases enable the assessment of oxygen fugacity profiles down to core–mantle boundary depths. Building on this framework, a separate suite of simulations explores a new carbon-tracking scheme that accounts for solid and molten reservoirs, redox-dependent melting interactions, and enhanced shallow magmatism, with the ultimate objective of coupling the deep carbon and water cycles.

How to cite: Moccetti Bardi, N. and Tackley, P.: Effects of Surface Mobility on Relevant Mantle H2O - C Fluxes and Distribution, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8347, 2026.

EGU26-8865 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

Assessing the effects of heat-producing element enrichment and mantle thermal conductivity on the stability of primordial reservoirs 

Joshua Guerrero, Frederic Deschamps, Wen-Pin Hsieh, and Paul Tackley

Thermo-chemical mantle convection models featuring heterogeneous thermal conductivity indicate that heat-producing element (HPE) enrichment in large low shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs) significantly impacts the long-term stability of these regions. Because the rate of internal heating was more significant in the past, thermal conductivity's influence on thermal buoyancy (and bulk erosion) must have also been more substantial. Consequently, their initial volume may have been significantly larger than their present-day volume. Energy balance calculations suggest that a smaller initial mantle volume fraction of LLSVPs material supports more HPE enrichment than a larger mantle volume fraction to maintain the mantle's internal heat budget. For example, an initial layer thickness of 160km (~3% mantle volume) implies present-day HPE enrichment factors greater than ~45 times the ambient mantle heating rate (compared with more conservative factors of 10 to 20 for similar initial conditions employed in previous studies of thermo-chemical pile stability). Thus, HPE enrichment may have been significantly underestimated in earlier models of LLSVPs evolution. Conversely, and assuming that LLSVPs formed from a much larger reservoir, HPE enrichment may be overestimated based on the present-day LLSVPs volume. Our study considers LLSVPs with a primordial geochemical reservoir composition (consistent with an undegassed 4He/3He signature and HPE enrichment). We present thermo-chemical mantle convection models that feature time-dependent internal heating rates and HPE enrichment (implied by initial mantle volume fraction). In this new context, we re-examine, in particular, the impact of a fully heterogeneous thermal conductivity, including a radiative conductivity, on the stability of LLSVPs. We then calculate synthetic seismic shear-wave velocity anomalies from the final distributions in temperature and composition tomographic of our simulations, filter these anomalies with a tomographic filter built from tomographic model HMSL-SPP06, and examine their distribution together with the heat-flux patterns at the core-mantle boundary. Using LLSVPs' present-day volume and core-mantle boundary coverage as a constraint, we finally discuss potential initial conditions, heating scenarios, and thermal conductivity for an Earth-like model.

How to cite: Guerrero, J., Deschamps, F., Hsieh, W.-P., and Tackley, P.: Assessing the effects of heat-producing element enrichment and mantle thermal conductivity on the stability of primordial reservoirs, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8865, 2026.

EGU26-9605 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

Tectonic Reorganizations and Multistability of the Mantle-Plate System 

Ilyas Jaah, Nicolas Coltice, Alexandre Janin, and Nicolas Flament

The geological record indicates that Earth has experienced rapid and drastic tectonic reorganizations, such as the breakup of Pangea and the global event at ∼50 Ma marked by the Hawaiian–Emperor bend and synchronous kinematic shifts across all major plates (Whittaker et al., 2007). The mantle lithosphere system is a complex nonlinear dynamical system (Coltice, 2023) that can produce such tectonic transitions (Janin et al., 2025; Guerrero et al., 2025). By analogy with the climate system, which alternates between icehouse and hothouse states, a fundamental question arises: can plate tectonics exhibit multistability, and if so, does the whole mantle-lithosphere system as well?

Here we investigate dynamical transitions in mantle convection with self-consistent plate tectonics using tools from dynamical systems theory. We analyze outputs from 3D spherical mantle convection model of Coltice et al. (2019), which reproduces major tectonic features of Earth. From a 850 Myr long simulation, we construct a database of tectonic and physical variables, including plate-boundary lengths, number of plates, proportion of deforming lithosphere, global and surface root-mean-square velocities, surface and core–mantle boundary heat fluxes, mean mantle temperature, number of mantle plumes, and lithospheric net rotation rate.

We apply two complementary methods to detect dynamical transitions: (1) sample-based tests using Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD; Gretton et al., 2012), which identify statistical discontinuities in multidimensional distributions, and (2) Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA; Eckmann et al., 1987), which characterizes changes in recurrence patterns within the system’s phase space. We perform analyses separately on surface variables, mantle variables, and the combined dataset.

We identify four statistically significant transitions. Some coincide with major tectonic reorganizations, such as supercontinent assembly and breakup or global kinematic shifts, while others reflect intrinsic changes in convective or tectonic regimes. Certain transitions affect both mantle and surface dynamics synchronously, whereas others are confined to either the lithosphere or mantle flow. To interpret these transitions, we combine Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with spectral analyses of mantle thermal heterogeneity. In this framework, detected transitions correspond to shifts in one or more principal components representing distinct tectonic, thermal, and kinematic states of the system, providing quantitative evidence for multistability in mantle-plate dynamics.

How to cite: Jaah, I., Coltice, N., Janin, A., and Flament, N.: Tectonic Reorganizations and Multistability of the Mantle-Plate System, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9605, 2026.

EGU26-9998 | PICO | GD1.2

Influence of composite rheology on planetary dynamics 

Charitra Jain and Stephan Sobolev

Rock-deformation laboratory experiments have shown that upper mantle flows with a combination of different creep mechanisms making its rheology composite (Karato & Wu, 1993; Hirth & Kohlstedt, 2003). At low stress levels in the cold and deep upper mantle, deformation occurs by diffusion creep where diffusive mass transport happens between grain boundaries. Whereas at relatively high stress levels in the hot regions of the uppermost mantle, deformation occurs by dislocation creep where crystalline dislocations move between grains. Although composite rheology has been considered in some recent global-scale geodynamical studies of rocky planets (e.g., Dannberg et al., 2017; Schierjott et al., 2020; Tian et al., 2023; Arnould et al., 2023), its influence on the thermo-compositional evolution and tectonic regime of early Earth remains unexplored.

In this study, the code StagYY (Tackley, 2008) is used to model the thermochemical evolution of solid Earth with three different rheological setups. In the first rheological setup, viscous deformation includes only diffusion creep. In the second setup, deformation is accommodated by a combination of diffusion creep and stress-dependent dislocation creep. In the third setup, a proxy for dislocation creep viscosity is used, which resembles temperature- and pressure-dependent Newtonian flow viscosity, where activation energy and activation volume relate to laboratory-estimated dislocation activation parameters divided by the stress exponent, representing dislocation creep with a constant strain rate. Such an approximation has been demonstrated to be a reasonable proxy of power-law viscosity in the classical modelling work by U. Christensen (1983, 1984).

These models self-consistently generate oceanic and continental crust, consider both plutonic and volcanic magmatism and incorporate pressure-, temperature-, and composition-dependent water solubility maps. Irrespective of the rheology considered, models exhibit mobile-lid regime with high mobility (ratio of rms surface velocity to rms velocity of mantle) with plume-induced lithospheric subduction for the initial 200-300 Myr. Afterwards, they transition to episodic-lid or ridge-only regime and are characterised by global resurfacing events. When compared to models with only diffusion creep rheology, models with composite rheology (either as stress dependent dislocation creep or dislocation creep proxy) have higher surface mobilities, experience resurfacings more frequently, produce more continental crust, and are more efficient at planetary cooling. These trends stay similar even in models that do not consider melting. In terms of code performance, computations with composite rheology take longer than just with diffusion creep. However, dislocation creep proxy models are faster than stress-dependent dislocation creep models by a factor of ~1.6x. In summary, a combination of diffusion and dislocation creep proxy is a viable formulation to realistically model long-term thermochemical planetary evolution with relatively low additional computational expense.

How to cite: Jain, C. and Sobolev, S.: Influence of composite rheology on planetary dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9998, 2026.

EGU26-11141 | PICO | GD1.2

Sulfur-in-clinopyroxene: tracing potential volcanic winters in deep time from a within-magma perspective 

Sara Callegaro, Don R. Baker, Kalotina Geraki, Angelo De Min, Leone Melluso, Andrea Marzoli, Manfredo Capriolo, Frances M Deegan, Francesco Caraffini, Jean Bédard, Joshua H. F. L. Davies, Andrea Boscaini, and Paul R. Renne

Large Igneous Province (LIP) volcanism is a major driver of past global change via degassing of large volumes of climate-altering and poisonous gases (such as H₂O, CO₂, CH₄, SO2). These volatile species can produce contrasting effects on the atmosphere, from long-term global warming to short-lived volcanic winters. We know from historical cases (e.g., the 1783–84 Laki fires, the 1991 Pinatubo eruption) that sulfur-rich eruptions can produce global cooling with societal consequences. In deep time, repeated volcanic winters occurring during LIP emplacement, superimposed on long-term warming, could have stressed ecosystems and contributed to mass extinction, but their short duration makes them difficult to detect in the stratigraphic record (Callegaro et al., 2020; 2023; Kent et al., 2024). Sedimentary proxies of short-term cooling such as glendonite crystallization are being explored, but their signals remain ambiguous (Vickers et al., 2020). We propose a complementary, “within-magma” approach for tracing sulfur-rich magmatic pulses capable of generating volcanic winters. Using synchrotron X-ray microfluorescence, we measure sulfur concentrations in clinopyroxene from LIP magmas, and calculate equilibrium melt concentrations with established partition coefficients. Since clinopyroxene is an early and almost ubiquitous phase in LIPs magmas, this method allows the detection of variations in sulfur budgets throughout the stratigraphy of a lava pile, identifying intervals of sulfur-rich lavas as potential drivers of volcanic winters. We discuss future developments of the method, and results obtained for magmas of the Deccan Traps (Western Ghats lava pile, India), and Franklin large igneous province.

 

Callegaro, S., Geraki, K., Marzoli, A., De Min, A., Maneta, V. & Baker, D. R., 2020. The quintet completed: The partitioning of sulfur between nominally volatile-free minerals and silicate melts. American Mineralogist 105, 697–707.

Callegaro, S., Baker, D. R., Renne, P. R., Melluso, L., Geraki, K., Whitehouse, M. J., De Min, A. & Marzoli, A., 2023. Recurring volcanic winters during the latest Cretaceous : Sulfur and fluorine budgets of Deccan Traps lavas. Science Advances 9, 1–12.

Kent D.V., Olsen, P.E., Wang, H., Schaller, M.F., Et-Touhami, M. 2024. Correlation of sub-centennial-scale pulses of initial Central Atlantic Magmatic Province lavas and the end-Triassic extinctions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences U.S.A. 121, e2415486121.

Vickers M.L., Lengger, S.K., Bernasconi, S.M., et al., 2020. Cold spells in the Nordic Seas during the early Eocene Greenhouse. Nature Communications, 11, 4713.

How to cite: Callegaro, S., Baker, D. R., Geraki, K., De Min, A., Melluso, L., Marzoli, A., Capriolo, M., Deegan, F. M., Caraffini, F., Bédard, J., Davies, J. H. F. L., Boscaini, A., and Renne, P. R.: Sulfur-in-clinopyroxene: tracing potential volcanic winters in deep time from a within-magma perspective, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11141, 2026.

The solubility of various volatiles in magma oceans plays a significant role in the formation and evolution of planetary atmospheres. Using ab initio molecular dynamics simulations, we investigate the dissolution of various volatiles in a magma ocean with bulk silicate Earth composition under conditions relevant to both early Earth and exoplanetary systems.

We find that hydrogen is highly soluble in silicate magma oceans, and its solubility increases dramatically with pressure and temperature. In particular for exoplanets, like sub-Neptunes, this solubility influences the structure and functioning of the entire planet. It significantly alters the redox state of the system and causes a massive outflux of oxygen. The results are large-scale formation of water vapor and the release of other complex chemical species. This process profoundly impacts the thermal and chemical evolution of exoplanets, particularly sub-Neptunes, whose atmospheres may show observable spectral signatures linked to magma ocean interactions. At conditions characteristic to the beginning of the Hadean, the Earth’s magma ocean could have easily dissolved large amounts of hydrogen. As a result, the amount of water present in the early atmosphere was determined by a fine balance between water degassing and hydrogen solubility. Changes in the redox state of the magma at shallow conditions would further influence this balance.

With regard to noble gases and CO/CO2, our simulations show that they are profoundly incompatible in silicate melts. They easily degas under lower pressure conditions, particularly when they are present jointly in the melt. The partial pressures of either of these gases need to reach at least a couple GPa to prevent degassing. These results suggest that the magma ocean contributed to the CO2-reach atmosphere of the Hadean, by both limited ingassing in the aftermath of the giant impact, and by massive outgassing, once the magma ocean was put in place.

 

How to cite: Caracas, R.: Outgassing of the Hadean magma ocean: a computational perspective , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12545, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12545, 2026.

EGU26-12628 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

Centrifugal force drives the formation of the antipodal basal mantle structures 

Zhidong Shi, Yang Li, and Rixiang Zhu

Large low shear-wave velocity provinces (LLSVPs) are degree-2, antipodal structures in Earth’s lowermost mantle that may play a key role in mantle convection and plate tectonics. However, the origin and timing of their degree-2 configuration remain poorly understood due to the lack of geological constraints (McNamara, 2019). Tidal evolution models predict that Earth’s length of day (L.O.D) increased from ~6 h to 24 h over geological time (Farhat et al., 2022), suggesting that centrifugal force could have significantly influenced early LLSVPs evolution. Here, we investigate this mechanism using 3D self-consistent thermochemical mantle convection models that incorporate centrifugal force, implemented with the code StagYY. In our models, L.O.D increases linearly from 6 h to 24 h over the full 4.56 Gyrs model time. We assume that LLSVPs originate from a uniform basal dense layer that are results of either magma ocean crystallization (Labrosse et al., 2007) or the Moon-forming giant impact (Yuan et al., 2023). We find that centrifugal force substantially accelerates the formation of degree-2 basal mantle structures. A subduction girdle centered at the equator and two basal mantle structures centered at the poles are observed in our models. These degree-2 structures emerge consistently across experiments with varying yield stresses and corresponding plate tectonic configurations. Thus, our simulations demonstrate that centrifugal force drives the formation of antipodal LLSVPs, further suggesting that the polar LLSVPs may subsequently migrate through true polar wander.

 

References:

Farhat, M., Auclair-Desrotour, P., Boué, G., Laskar, J., 2022. The resonant tidal evolution of the Earth-Moon distance. Astronomy & Astrophysics 665.

Labrosse, S., Hernlund, J.W., Coltice, N., 2007. A crystallizing dense magma ocean at the base of the Earth’s mantle. Nature 450, 866-869.

McNamara, A.K., 2019. A review of large low shear velocity provinces and ultra low velocity zones. Tectonophysics 760, 199-220.

Yuan, Q., Li, M., Desch, S.J., Ko, B., Deng, H., Garnero, E.J., Gabriel, T.S.J., Kegerreis, J.A., Miyazaki, Y., Eke, V., Asimow, P.D., 2023. Moon-forming impactor as a source of Earth’s basal mantle anomalies. Nature 623, 95-99.

How to cite: Shi, Z., Li, Y., and Zhu, R.: Centrifugal force drives the formation of the antipodal basal mantle structures, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12628, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12628, 2026.

EGU26-14260 | PICO | GD1.2

Mixing of a passive heterogeneity by mantle convection 

Renaud Deguen

Accretion and early differentiation processes have left Earth's mantle in a chemically heterogeneous state at the end of the Hadean. Since then, these primordial heterogeneities have been progressively erased by mantle convection stirring. This is well-illustrated by short lived isotopic systems such as 146Sm-142Nd: mantle-derived rocks 2.7 to 4.0 Gy old have been found with measurable anomalies in 142Nd/144Nd, while younger rocks show no detectable deviations from the mantle average. This indicates that convective stirring within the mantle has reduced the level of heterogeneities below the instrumental detection limit in ~1.8 Gy since Earth's formation. These observations have the potential of giving constraints on the mantle stirring rate in the Archean, and therefore on the mantle's dynamical state. However, the survival time of an heterogeneity depends not only on the mixing rate, but also on the initial level of heterogeneity and instrumental detection limit. For these reasons, and also because of the relative scarcity of available data, the observed survival time cannot be simply translated into a mantle stirring time. A quantitative interpretation of the geochemical data in terms of stirring rate requires comparison with a model that can predict the evolution of the probability density function (PDF) of the abundance of a geochemical tracer (or, equivalently, histograms of concentration), as a function of the convective regime and characteristics of the initial heterogeneity. We present here an analytical model for the time evolution of the PDF of a chemical tracer that is initially heterogeneously distributed. The model predictions compare very well with results from numerical simulations. This provides a solid physical basis for interpreting 142Nd/144Nd variations in terms of mantle dynamical state.

How to cite: Deguen, R.: Mixing of a passive heterogeneity by mantle convection, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14260, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14260, 2026.

EGU26-14754 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

The Effect of Temperature-dependent Strength of Lithosphere on the Earth's Tectonic Evolution 

Po Wang Lam, Maxim Ballmer, and Aleksander Zarebski

Plate tectonics is a characteristic feature of Earth, but its initiation and early evolution remain debated. Geological and geochemical evidence suggests that plate tectonics was initiated from a stagnant-lid regime in the Archaean, however mechanisms associated with this transition are unclear. Previous geodynamic models, which typically assume fixed lithospheric strength, require a low effective yield-stress rheology to obtain plate-like behaviour, inconsistent with laboratory measurements. Here, we apply a global-scale mantle convection model that incorporates a temperature-dependent friction coefficient, representing thermodynamic weakening on fault planes during rapid slip (Brantut & Platt, 2017), to study the tectonic evolution of Earth-like planets. As the timescales of geodynamic models and fault motion differ by several orders of magnitude, a simplified step-function approach is adopted, where reduced friction coefficients of 0.01~0.1 are applied below the temperature threshold to mimic unstable fault motion (Karato & Barbot, 2018). Our results show that temperature-dependent weakening does not systematically promote stagnant-to-mobile lid transitions. Instead, plume-induced subduction serves as the dominant process to transition from an initial stagnant phase to plate-like lithospheric behaviour (mobile lid). We find that temperature-dependent friction coefficients can act as an additional weakening mechanism to promote subduction even at high lithospheric strengths. Unlike earlier models, which produced mobile-lid behaviour only under lithospheric strengths much lower than laboratory estimates, these findings demonstrate that more realistic rheological parameters can sustain mobile-lid behaviour when dynamic weakening is considered. We also find that subduction-zone locations are stabilised over time in cases with temperature-dependent friction coefficients. This behaviour is associated with localised lithospheric weakening in cold downwellings, and consistent with the stability of trench locations in plate reconstructions (Müller et al., 2019) as well as of seismically-observed lower-mantle structures (Torsvik et al., 2010). Our results provide a possible explanation for why plume-induced subduction on Venus, where high surface temperatures inhibit dynamic weakening, remains short-lived and localised, preventing plate tectonics.

References

Brantut, N., & Platt, J. D. (2017). https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119156895.ch9

Karato, S., & Barbot, S. (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30174-6

Müller, R. D., Zahirovic, S., Williams, S. E., Cannon, J., Seton, M., Bower, D. J., Tetley, M. G., Heine, C., Le Breton, E., Liu, S., Russell, S. H. J., Yang, T., Leonard, J., & Gurnis, M. (2019). https://doi.org/10.1029/2018TC005462

Torsvik, T. H., Burke, K., Steinberger, B., Webb, S. J., & Ashwal, L. D. (2010). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09216

How to cite: Lam, P. W., Ballmer, M., and Zarebski, A.: The Effect of Temperature-dependent Strength of Lithosphere on the Earth's Tectonic Evolution, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14754, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14754, 2026.

EGU26-18147 | PICO | GD1.2

Planetary controls on magma ocean crystallisation, re-melting and overturn 

Antonio Manjón-Cabeza Córdoba, Maxim D. Ballmer, and Oliver Shorttle

In their hot initial phase, rocky planetary bodies undergo a magma ocean (MO) stage. Crystallisation of this magma ocean sets the initial structure of planetary mantles, and thus determines the early stages, and long term evolution, of solid-state mantle convection, thus regulating the litrhospheric tectonic, core convection and associated magnetic field. This major planetary differentiation process also controls the outgassing of the primary atmosphere, and therefore the long-term surface evolution and habitability. While several studies have addressed this crystallisation process from a mass-balance or a dynamical point of view, few have studied remelting of the convecting solid mantle while a magma ocean was still present. We here present spherical annulus numerical calculations of mantle convection and melting under a magma ocean to address the role of heterogeneity and dynamic recrystallisation on remelting and differentiation. Results indicate that the parameters that typically impact mantle convection (viscosity, density anomaly, etc) also impact the differentiation of the magma ocean. In particular, dynamic topography has a great influence on the composition of the magma ocean and its differentiation, as it conditions both, excess melting above upwellings (e.g. Figure 1) and excess crystallisation above downwellings. These topography effects are greater the closest the system is to a magma ocean overturn. Our findings can help to understand the differences between solar system bodies, such as the presence or absence of basal magma oceans in terrestrial bodies, or to predict the convective evolution of rocky exoplanets.

Figure 1: Effects of different MO density on mantle upwellings, the greater topography due to higher density of the MO  causes increased excess melting.

 

How to cite: Manjón-Cabeza Córdoba, A., Ballmer, M. D., and Shorttle, O.: Planetary controls on magma ocean crystallisation, re-melting and overturn, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18147, 2026.

EGU26-18572 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

Rheological Controls on the Plate-Mantle System: Self-Consistent vs. Kinematically Constrained Models 

Marla Metternich, Paul Tackley, Maëlis Arnould, and Alexandre Janin

Earth’s interior plays a fundamental role in the long-term evolution of the surface, climate, and biosphere. However, Earth's mantle evolution remains largely ambiguous, as imaging techniques are limited to present-day observations and geochemical or geological constraints apply to a non-global scale. Plate tectonic reconstructions coupled with convection models could provide constraints on the evolution of mantle structure. In this study, we employ both fully self-consistent and kinematically constrained mantle convection models[1]. The mantle rheology is temperature-, pressure-, phase-, and stress-dependent, with the latter represented through pseudo-plasticity. The novelty of this work lies in employing a composite rheology with “realistic” rheological parameters[2] in a fully three-dimensional geometry. By using both fully self-consistent models and plate-driven models, we aim to address the discrepancies in terms of long-term convective and tectonic behaviour that arise when forcing plate velocities onto the surface. The latter is done by imposing time-dependent surface velocity boundary conditions provided by a plate tectonic reconstruction[3].

To evaluate the extent to which the models reproduce plate-like tectonics, we explore several independent constraints. In particular, we compute slab sinking rates and compare them to estimates inferred from seismic tomography[4]. Slab sinking rates in self-consistent models provide insight into the mantle’s rheology. For example, sinking rates that are lower than those based on tomographic and geological data may indicate an overly viscous mantle. Our results show that the slab sinking rate is generally higher in models with imposed plate velocities compared to fully self-consistent models. Furthermore, a tessellation algorithm[5] will be applied to the surface of the models to detect plates in the self-consistent models with plate-like behaviour. Based on these results, a plate-size frequency distribution can be calculated and compared to present-day Earth[6]. Results show that low yield stresses generate too many small plates, and too few large plates [Fig. 1]. In order to generate Earth-like plate tectonics, yield stress needs to be sufficiently high to reproduce the plate-size frequency distribution of present-day Earth, but also sufficiently low to facilitate a long-term mobile lid regime.

[1] Tackley, P. J. (2008). Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 171, 1–4.

[2] Tackley, P. J., Ammann, M., Brodholt, J. P., Dobson, D. P., & Valencia, D. (2013). Icarus 225, 50–61.

[3] Merdith, A. S., Williams, S. E., Collins, A. S., et al. (2021). Earth-Sci. Rev. 214, 103477.

[4] Van der Meer, D. G., van Hinsbergen, D. J. J., & Spakman, W. (2018). Tectonophysics 723, 309–448.

[5] Janin, A., Coltice, N., Chamot-Rooke, N., & Tierny, J. (2025). Nat. Geosci. 18, 1041–1047.

[6] Bird, P. (2003). Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 4, 2001GC000252.

How to cite: Metternich, M., Tackley, P., Arnould, M., and Janin, A.: Rheological Controls on the Plate-Mantle System: Self-Consistent vs. Kinematically Constrained Models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18572, 2026.

EGU26-20916 | PICO | GD1.2

Impact of Heat-Producing Elements in the Core on Super-Earth Evolution and Dynamics 

Diogo Lourenço and Paul Tackley

Radiogenic heating plays a crucial role in shaping a planet’s evolution and dynamics. On Earth, ~50% of surface heat loss originates from the decay of three long-lived, heat-producing elements (HPEs): potassium, thorium, and uranium. These elements are strongly lithophile and preferentially concentrate in the silicate mantle of planets. However, a recent study by Luo et al. (Science Advances, 2024) suggests that under the high-pressure, high-temperature conditions of core formation in large rocky planets (so-called super-Earths), these HPEs may become siderophile, partitioning preferentially into the iron core. The presence of HPEs in the mantles of super-Earths plays a crucial role in their internal dynamics. A feedback loop between internal heating, temperature, and viscosity regulates mantle temperature, adjusting viscosity to the value needed to facilitate convective loss of the radiogenic heat (Tackley et al., Icarus 2013). However, if these sources of radiogenic heat partition into the core, mantle convection in super-Earths becomes dominated by heat flowing from the core rather than by a mix of internal heating and cooling from above (as in Earth). Using 1D, parameterized mantle evolution models, Luo et al. (Science Advances, 2024) show that this shift leads to a sharp rise in core-mantle boundary (CMB) temperatures and an increase in total CMB heat flow, with significant implications for volcanism and magnetic field generation.

In this study, we perform mantle convection simulations using the StagYY code (Tackley, PEPI 2008), extending the models of Tackley et al. (Icarus, 2013) to include HPEs in the core, as suggested by Luo et al. (Science Advances, 2024). Our models are run in a 2D spherical annulus geometry and allow for melting at all mantle depths. We test different planetary masses, from 1 to 10 Earth masses, as well as different post-perovskite rheologies, (upper- and lower-bound, following Tackley et al. 2013, and interstitial rheology following Karato 2011), two tectonic regimes (stagnant and mobile-lid), and three mantle-to-core partitioning ratios of HPEs (0.1, 1, and 10). This work contributes to the growing understanding of the interior dynamics of super-Earths, and their implications on surface and atmospheric conditions, the presence of a magnetic field, and habitability potential.

How to cite: Lourenço, D. and Tackley, P.: Impact of Heat-Producing Elements in the Core on Super-Earth Evolution and Dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20916, 2026.

EGU26-22000 | ECS | PICO | GD1.2

Impact of out-of-equilibrium degassing of magma oceans on volatile trapping, solidification time and habitability 

Alexandre de Larminat, Henri Samuel, and Angela Limare

Rocky planets such as the Earth or Venus likely experienced at least one magma ocean (MO) episode, during which the silicate mantle was molten in part or in full due to the heat generated by accretion and radioactive heating. During this MO stage, volatile elements present in the magma degassed to form the secondary atmosphere. Better understanding this degassing process can help us constrain the duration of the MO stage, the volatile enrichment of the subsequent mantle and the conditions for habitability. 

The degassing process is typically assumed to be efficient, in equilibrium with the atmosphere: instant degassing of oversaturated fluid parcels in a well-mixed magma ocean. However, MO parcels may experience considerable delay in reaching the shallow pressures where bubbles can form and degas into the atmosphere.

We take into account this out-of-equilibrium degassing in a 1D interior model coupled to a radiative-convective CO2/H2O atmosphere. The model is parameterized using scaling laws derived from joint laboratory and numerical experiments. We explore a broad range of planet sizes, stellar radiation and CO2 and H2O initial concentrations, and examine the impact of rapid rotation akin to that of the early Earth.

Using this coupled model, we explore the impact of out-of-equilibrium degassing on atmospheric composition and habitability, the cooling time of the MO, and the volatiles trapped in the mantle.

How to cite: de Larminat, A., Samuel, H., and Limare, A.: Impact of out-of-equilibrium degassing of magma oceans on volatile trapping, solidification time and habitability, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22000, 2026.

EGU26-268 | ECS | Orals | GD2.1

Quantitative Estimation of Leucosome Volume in Migmatized Eclogite and Implications for Exhumation Dynamics of Mafic Crust 

Chao Yan, Lu Wang, Zhe Chen, Michael Brown, Xiandeng Yang, and Mengwei Zhang

Numerical experiments have shown that the presence of fluid or melt during exhumation of deeply subducted ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) eclogite significantly reduces the bulk strength and density, promoting exhumation. However, quantitative studies of the leucosome volume in natural migmatitic eclogites as a proxy for the amount of melt present during exhumation are rare, hindering a deeper understanding of exhumation dynamics of mafic crust. Here, we report results of a systematic study from an extensive outcrop of migmatized eclogite within host gneisses at General's Hill in the Sulu belt, China. Two types of leucosome are distinguished at outcrop and thin-section scales: one type was derived exclusively from UHP eclogite and the other represents a blend of melts derived from both eclogite and host gneiss. We develop a comprehensive set of quantitative methods to estimate the total leucosome volume and the proportion derived from eclogite, and to evaluate the density change of mafic crust due to the presence of melt and effects of retrogression during exhumation. First, we identified leucosome types, subsequently verified by petrographic analysis, and estimated leucosome proportion along one-dimensional transects totaling ~239 meters in length. Second, we estimated the area of different leucosome types using two-dimensional drone-based orthophotos covering ~4000 m2 in area. Based on linear proportion or area as a proxy for volume, the total leucosome amount in the migmatized mafic crust varies from 20 to 30 vol.% with ~83% of the leucosome sourced from eclogite. Retrogression during exhumation leads to between 5 and 19% density reduction of the eclogites on a per sample basis compared to representative unmigmatized UHP eclogites from the adjacent Yangkou Bay outcrop, and overall, the presence of leucosome leads to between 18 and 20% density reduction of the local mafic crust investigated in this study. These results provide critical parameterized constraints for use in geodynamic models of exhumation of eclogite-dominated tectonic units in continental subduction zones.

How to cite: Yan, C., Wang, L., Chen, Z., Brown, M., Yang, X., and Zhang, M.: Quantitative Estimation of Leucosome Volume in Migmatized Eclogite and Implications for Exhumation Dynamics of Mafic Crust, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-268, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-268, 2026.

The Mantle Transition Zone (MTZ) is a geophysically and geochemically significant yet incompletely constrained region of Earth’s interior. Among the high-pressure mineral phases stable under MTZ conditions, akimotoite is especially relevant in the context of cold subducting slabs. The phase transition between akimotoite and bridgmanite near the 660 km discontinuity is thought to influence slab behaviour and associated mantle features. Experimental and meteoritic studies have shown that akimotoite can incorporate a range of cations, such as Fe and Al, which may significantly affect its phase stability and the pressure–temperature conditions governing its transformation to bridgmanite. In this study, we employ first-principles calculations within the quasi-harmonic approximation to quantify the thermodynamic and thermoelastic effects of cationic substitution on the akimotoite-to-bridgmanite transition. To capture realistic mantle compositional variability, we construct a two-phase coexisting region for Fe- and Al-bearing systems to better constrain the solid solution effect in this regime. Our results demonstrate that increasing Fe2+ content significantly decreases the akimotoite–bridgmanite transition pressure and enhances the acoustic velocity contrast across the boundary. The associated modification of the Clapeyron slope implies possible changes in slab buoyancy and stagnation behaviour near the 660-km discontinuity (Pandit et al., 2025). These results underscore the importance of compositional effects in modulating phase stability and provide new constraints on the role of the akimotoite–bridgmanite transition in MTZ subduction dynamics.

 

Reference:

Pandit, P., Chandrashekhar, P., Sharma, S., & Shukla, G. (2025). Effect of Fe2+ on akimotoite to bridgmanite transition: Its implication on subduction dynamics. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems26(3), e2024GC012010.

How to cite: Pandit, P. and Shukla, G.: Compositional Effects on the Akimotoite–Bridgmanite Phase Transition and Their Significance for Subducting Slab Behavior, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-590, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-590, 2026.

EGU26-684 | ECS | Orals | GD2.1

Plagiogranites derived from high-Mg Andesitic magmas: An example from the Andaman Ophiolite 

Sree Bhuvan Gandrapu, Jyotiranjan S Ray, and Rajneesh Bhutani

Plagiogranites are the felsic plutonic rocks occurring amidst a suite of predominantly mafic and ultramafic rocks. Their occurrence ranges from newly formed oceanic crust to Archean ophiolites, and they are usually associated with the crustal section, i.e., gabbros and sheeted dykes. Sometimes, they have been observed in the mantle sections as well. The Andaman ophiolite (AO) is a dismembered ophiolite suite located on the forearc of the Andaman subduction zone, where the Indian plate obliquely subducts beneath the Burma microplate. Plagiogranites of the AO are found to be intruding into gabbros and serpentinized mantle peridotites. They have been dated to 98-93Ma, and are contemporaneous with the other rocks of the ophiolite. Earlier studies propose that these have been generated by crystal fractionation or an immiscible separation from a parental basaltic magma. In this study, we utilize new whole-rock geochemical data and Sr-Nd isotopic ratios of these rocks to constrain their petrogenesis. Geochemically, these rocks are classified as diorites to tonalites-trondhjemites, characterized by plagioclase+amphibole+quartz assemblage. Petrographic observations reveal that euhedral plagioclase and amphiboles were the early crystallizing phases, while anhedral quartz crystallized later in the sequence. The plagiogranites exhibit LREE-enriched patterns on chondrite-normalized plots and negative Nb-Ta and Zr-Hf anomalies on primitive mantle-normalized plots, suggesting derivation from a metasomatized source. Sr-Nd isotopic compositions strongly overlap with other rocks of the ophiolite suite, pointing to a common mantle parentage. Low TiO2 contents, overlapping trace element patterns with the mafic rocks of the AO, and REE-SiO2 systematics negate the possibility of plagiogranite formation by fractional crystallization from a basaltic magma. The occurrence of amphiboles in the plagiogranites suggests that the parent magma was hydrous, implying that liquid immiscibility was not the genetic mechanism. Therefore, we explore the possibility that they are crystallized products of a high-magnesian andesitic magma (HMA) derived by the partial melting of a metasomatized mantle source at low pressure, followed by fractional crystallization of plagioclase±amphibole, to explain their genesis and the observed compositional variation. We demonstrate, using the results of alphaMELTS simulations, that compositional variation and the mineral assemblages observed in the plagiogranites of the AO can be explained by this model and suggest that derivation from HMAs is a viable mechanism for the genesis of plagiogranites in similar settings. We propose that the plagiogranites of AO have formed during the initiation of an intra-oceanic subduction, which can explain their geochemical features and geochronological results.

How to cite: Gandrapu, S. B., Ray, J. S., and Bhutani, R.: Plagiogranites derived from high-Mg Andesitic magmas: An example from the Andaman Ophiolite, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-684, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-684, 2026.

Ophiolites, as fragments of ancient oceanic lithosphere emplaced onto continental margins, offer a valuable record of the magmatic, tectonic, and mantle processes that shaped former oceanic basins. This study investigates crust–mantle interactions within ophiolite complexes of the northeastern Himalaya using a multi-proxy geochemical approach that integrates whole-rock major and trace element chemistry, mineral chemistry, isotopic signatures, and Platinum Group Element (PGE) systematics. PGEs provide a robust means of tracing mantle processes due to their sensitivity to degrees of partial melting, sulphur saturation, and redox conditions. By examining PGEs in mantle-derived peridotites, chromitites, and associated crustal rocks, this research aims to delineate the roles of partial melting, fractional crystallization, and post-magmatic alteration in shaping the composition of ophiolitic sequences. The study further assesses how variations in PGE distribution reflect differences in tectonic setting, from mid-ocean ridge to supra-subduction zone environments. Through comparative analysis of ophiolites formed in diverse geodynamic contexts, this work addresses existing gaps in understanding the processes governing ophiolite genesis and emplacement during subduction, obduction, and continental collision. The results are expected to refine current models of oceanic lithosphere formation, improve constraints on mantle melting regimes, and enhance interpretations of crust–mantle evolution in convergent margin systems. Overall, this research contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of mantle geochemistry, magmatic differentiation, and tectonic reconstruction in the northeastern Himalayan region.

How to cite: Chaubey, M.: Exploring Crust–Mantle Relationships in Northeastern Himalayan Ophiolites Through Integrated Geochemical and PGE Systematics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-978, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-978, 2026.

Olivine, as the first crystallization product from basaltic melt, provides important information about the magma origin. Here we provide a detailed textural, major and trace element, and noble gas isotope compositional data for a alkaline basalt suite from the Persani volcanic field (PVF) of the Carpathian-Pannonian Region. This is the youngest monogenetic volcanic field (1,3 Ma - 0,6 Ma) formed in a geodynamically still active zone. A descending, vertical lithospheric slab result in frequent earthquakes, whereas nearby, another young volcanic system is found (Ciomadul). The alkali basalt magmas were formed due to decompression melting in the asthenosphere, at 60–80 km depth.

Thus, olivine composition can be used to characterize the nature of asthenospheric mantle in a postcollisional area. Noble gas isotope ratios, especially the 3He/4He, are sensisitve indicators of the mantle composition. There are relatively comprehensive data on mantle xenoliths, however, only sporadic data are from olivine crystals of basalts. This is due the challenge of such studies, because of the need of clean olivine separates and detection of low amount of gases from the primary fluid inclusions.

In the Carpathian-Pannonian Region, we firstly detected noble gas isotopes from phenocrysts of basaltic rocks. We sampled different eruption products of the PVF from different eruption episodes. Following a multi-step sample preparation process, we analysed the olivine separates with noble gas mass spectrometer. Petrographic characteristics and major element composition of most olivine phenocrysts suggest crystallization from primary basaltic magma. Due to fast magma ascent, the olivine crystals preserved the original noble gas isotope ratios in their primary fluid inclusions in most samples.

We got relatively low, ~2-5 R/Ra values (3He/4He of the sample divided by 3He/4He of the atmosphere) which are lower than the R/Ra values obtained from the olivine and pyroxene crystals of lithospheric mantle xenoliths in the PVF alkaline basalts (~6 R/Ra), suggesting geochemical differences between the local asthenospheric and lithospheric mantle. Our results are also significantly lower than the usual R/Ra of the depleted mantle (~8 R/Ra). The low values can be explained by metasomatism of the asthenospheric magma source region with crustal fluids during former subduction and/or 4He addition to the asthenosphere from the radioactive decay of U and Th originated from the subducted lithospheric slab. Another possible explanation could be the lithologic heterogeneity of the magma source region. The Mn, Ca and Zn content of olivine autocrysts also indicate the presence of recycled crustal material in the mantle source, in agreement with the noble gas isotope compositional data. Our results suggest that in a postcollisional setting the asthenosphere is contaminated by recycled crustal material and subduction-related fluids.

How to cite: Pánczél, E., Harangi, S., Molnár, K., Czuppon, G., and Lukács, R.: Major, trace element and noble gas isotope composition of olivine from the alkaline basalts of the Persani Volcanic Field, Romania: constraints on the magma source region, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1256, 2026.

EGU26-1461 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.1

Compositions of basaltic arc lavas track temporal changes in the global Sr cycle  

Paul Sotiriou, Marcel Regelous, and Karsten Haase

Active arc basalts have higher Sr/Nd ratios than the bulk continental crust. The significant delamination of low-density Sr-bearing plagioclase-rich lower arc crust cumulates is unlikely. Here, we compile geochemical data from 1875 – 0 Ma arc basalts (5.5-6.5 wt.% MgO) and demonstrate that Phanerozoic fossil (6.2 – 52.8; average: (26.5 ± 11.5 (1 σ)) and active (27.8 – 67.9; average: 42.1 ± 9.8 (1 σ)) arc basalts have higher average Sr6/Nd6 ratios than those of Proterozoic fossil arcs (6.6 – 45.4; average: 16.9 ± 9.8 (1 σ)). There were increases in the average Sr6/Nd6 ratios of arc basalts at 800 – 600 and 150 – 100 Ma. The average Sr/Nd ratios of global subducting sediment (12) and depleted mantle (14) are considerably lower than those of active arc basalts. The Sr6/Nd6 ratios of active arc basalts do not correlate with Th6/La6, 143Nd/144Nd and 87Sr/86Sr and crustal thickness. Active arc basalts have high Nd6/Sr6 and Sr6/Th6 and low 87Sr/86Sr ratios. This indicates the high Sr6/Nd6 ratios are not influenced by crustal thickness or siliciclastic sediment subduction but rather slab-derived fluids. Higher Sr contents in seawater due to increased continental weathering associated with the rise of the continents in the Neoproterozoic, and increases in the amount of abiogenic and biogenic carbonate being subducted at 800 and 150 Ma, respectively, led to the high Sr6/Nd6 ratios of basalts from Phanerozoic fossil and active arcs. The increase in the Sr contents of seawater led to the generation of more Sr-rich basaltic magmas following the dehydration and/or melting of altered oceanic crust. The subduction of pelagic carbonates after 150 Ma resulted in the generation of the high Sr6/Nd6 of basaltic lavas from active arcs. Therefore, the compositions of basaltic arc lavas track temporal changes in the global Sr and C cycles.

How to cite: Sotiriou, P., Regelous, M., and Haase, K.: Compositions of basaltic arc lavas track temporal changes in the global Sr cycle , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1461, 2026.

EGU26-3055 | Posters on site | GD2.1

Transient water storage in the mantle transition zone governed by subduction and water-induced buoyancy 

Taras Gerya, Nickolas Moccetti Bardi, Shun-ichiro Karato, and Motohiko Murakami

The nominally unhydrous wadsleyite and ringwoodite present in the mantle transition zone (MTZ), can contain up to 1–2 wt% of water, which creates large potential water storage capacity of this upper mantle zone. However, whether these water reservoirs in the MTZ can be eventually filled remains debatable. We developed new empirical model of deep hydrous mantle melting and performed systematic investigation of water dynamics in the MTZ by using new 2D thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) upper mantle models. Our results suggest that relatively cold solid-state mantle upwellings can start from thermally relaxed hydrated stagnant subducted slabs present at the bottom of the MTZ. These water-bearing plumes rise to and interact with the wadsleyite-olivine phase transition. Depending on the water content and temperature of these thermal-chemical plumes, they may trigger hydrous melting by water release from the wadsleyite upon its conversion to olivine. The hydrous melts are less dense than the solid matrix and rise upward in the form of either melt diapirs or porosity waives. Similar dehydration-induced melting process is also documented for subducting slabs crossing the lower MTZ boundary, where they can generate buoyant melt diapirs rising through the MTZ. Based on the investigated water dynamics, we propose that relatively small amounts of water (<0.1 wt%, <0.2 ocean masses) and a geologically moderate duration (<500 Myr) of the transient water residence should be characteristic for the MTZ. These findings also have implications for the long-term stability of the surface ocean mass on Earth and Earth-like rocky exoplanets due to rather small dynamic water storage in the MTZ.

 

How to cite: Gerya, T., Moccetti Bardi, N., Karato, S., and Murakami, M.: Transient water storage in the mantle transition zone governed by subduction and water-induced buoyancy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3055, 2026.

EGU26-3122 | ECS | Orals | GD2.1

Hydration at the Base of the Mantle Transition Zone by Ancient Subductions in Asia 

Jiyu Liu, Zhongqing Wu, Wenzhong Wang, Wenjiao Xiao, and Zhu Mao

Whether and how subduction results in water enrichment at the base of the mantle transition zone (MTZ) remain elusive. The major orogenic belts of the Asian continent, including the Central Asian, Tethyan, and Alpine–Himalayan belts, which record extensive subduction processes, offer an ideal target to address the hydration of the MTZ and its relationship with subduction. Here, we map water content at the MTZ base by combing mineral physics constraints on hydrous pyrolite and global seismic observations of velocity structure and 660-km discontinuity topography. Our results indicate an average global water content of approximately 0.13 wt%, with pronounced hydration anomalies in parts of Asia. Linking these anomalies with reconstructions of past subduction events since 410 Ma reveals extensive water delivery to the MTZ, particularly beneath the Baikal region and across northwestern China, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and western Pakistan, where water content exceeds 0.5 wt%. These results connect ancient subduction history to present-day mantle hydration, offering new insights into Earth’s deep water cycle and highlighting the MTZ as a key reservoir for water.

How to cite: Liu, J., Wu, Z., Wang, W., Xiao, W., and Mao, Z.: Hydration at the Base of the Mantle Transition Zone by Ancient Subductions in Asia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3122, 2026.

EGU26-4050 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.1

Preconditioning of subduction zone initiation at passive margins by gravitational instabilities 

Valeria Fedeli, Alessandro Regorda, and Anna Maria Marotta

Subduction zone initiation (SZI) represents a critical step in the evolution of plate tectonics, yet its controlling mechanisms remain debated. While SZI is commonly classified as induced or spontaneous depending on the dominance of far-field convergence or local buoyancy forces (Stern, 2004; Stern and Gerya, 2018), geological and numerical studies suggest that purely spontaneous subduction at passive margins is unlikely under present-day conditions (Arcay et al., 2020; Lallemand and Arcay, 2021). Nevertheless, passive margins are characterised by strong lateral contrasts in density, rheology, thermal structure and sedimentary loading, which may generate gravitational instabilities capable of locally weakening the lithosphere.

In this study, we investigate whether gravitational instabilities at passive margins can act as a preconditioning mechanism for subduction, facilitating induced SZI and influencing the early evolution and geometry of the subduction zone once convergence is applied. We perform several hundred two-dimensional thermo-mechanical simulations using the finite-element code FALCON (Regorda et al., 2023), modelling a passive margin.

The models include an initial gravitational phase, followed by an induced convergence phase with velocities ranging from 0.01 to 1 cm/yr. To systematically explore lithospheric weakening, we vary viscous weakening intervals and plastic weakening laws, allowing us to quantify deformation localization through strain-rate analysis near the margin.

Our results show that, for sufficiently weak rheological configurations, gravitational instabilities lead to transient strain-rate localization within the passive margin, controlled by plastic weakening at shallow levels and viscous weakening at depth. The mechanically damaged zone may be efficiently reactivated when convergence starts. In these cases, subduction initiates and develops readily into a coherent subduction interface, particularly at moderate to high convergence rates.

References  

Arcay, Diane, Serge Lallemand, Sarah Abecassis, and Fanny Garel (2020). “Can subduction initiation at a transform fault be spontaneous?” In: Solid Earth 11. DOI: 10.5194/se-11-37-2020. 

Lallemand, Serge and Diane Arcay (2021). “Subduction initiation from the earliest stages to self-sustained subduction: Insights from the analysis of 70 Cenozoic sites”. In: Earth-Science Reviews 221. DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103779. 

Regorda, Alessandro, Cedric Thieulot, Iris van Zelst, Zoltán Erdős, Julia Maia, and Susanne Buiter (2023). “Rifting Venus: Insights From Numerical Modeling”. In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets 128. DOI: 10.1029/2022JE007588. 

Stern, Robert J. (2004). “Subduction initiation: Spontaneous and induced”. In: Earth and Planetary Science Letters 226. DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2004.08.007. 

Stern, Robert J. and Taras Gerya (2018). “Subduction initiation in nature and models: A review”. In: Tectonophysics 746. DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2017.10.014. 

How to cite: Fedeli, V., Regorda, A., and Marotta, A. M.: Preconditioning of subduction zone initiation at passive margins by gravitational instabilities, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4050, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4050, 2026.

EGU26-4702 | ECS | Orals | GD2.1

Slab Breakoff Induced by Weak Crustal-Scale Heterogeneities 

Madhusudan Sharma, Ivone Jiménez-Munt, Ana María Negredo Moreno, Ángela María Gómez-García, Michael Pons, Claudio Faccenna, Jaume Vergés, Montserrat Torne, Wentao Zhang, and Daniel García-Castellanos

Slab breakoff is most commonly associated with continental collision. However, recent geodynamic studies have documented slab breakoff in non-collisional subduction settings, indicating that additional mechanisms may facilitate slab failure. The processes enabling breakoff in the absence of pronounced buoyancy contrasts remain poorly understood. Here, we use two-dimensional thermo-mechanical numerical models to investigate the role of weak crustal-scale heterogeneities embedded within a subducting oceanic plate on slab breakoff dynamics. The models are developed using the ASPECT code coupled with the Geodynamic World Builder for the setting of the initial geometry of the models. We systematically vary the viscosity, length, and distance to trench of weak crustal strips representing inherited compositional heterogeneities, such as sedimentary depocenters. Our results suggest that in models where the subducting slab is fixed or subjected to slow push from the lateral boundary, low-viscosity heterogeneities strongly localize deformation at the subduction interface. Meanwhile, the slab may stretch within the asthenosphere and accelerate as it sinks, ultimately leading to slab necking and breakoff. We identify a clear relationship between slab breakoff depth and the distance of the weak strip from the trench, with breakoff occurring at shallower depths for more trench-distal heterogeneities. This behaviour arises from the combined effects of enhanced slab pull and the presence of weak material farther from the trench, which localizes deformation at shallower depths and promotes shallow slab breakoff. Following slab breakoff, subduction commonly resumes when remnants of the weak strip remain at the plate interface, initiating a second phase of subduction. In addition, we find that the presence of a weak strip increases trench retreat velocities by up to a factor of two compared to a homogeneous reference model. These results demonstrate that relatively small-scale variations in oceanic crustal strength can precondition subducting slabs for breakoff without the need for continental collision, providing a viable explanation for episodic slab detachment observed in natural subduction zones.

How to cite: Sharma, M., Jiménez-Munt, I., María Negredo Moreno, A., María Gómez-García, Á., Pons, M., Faccenna, C., Vergés, J., Torne, M., Zhang, W., and García-Castellanos, D.: Slab Breakoff Induced by Weak Crustal-Scale Heterogeneities, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4702, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4702, 2026.

EGU26-4812 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.1

Effects of surface processes on nature of arc magmas in subduction zones revealed by Mo-Zn isotopes 

Wushuang Zhang, Jie Tang, Wenliang Xu, Feng Wang, and Kechun Hong

The subduction zones are vital places for material cycling and energy exchange between the Earth's surface and interior. Previous researches mainly focuses on the effects of deep magma activities in controlling surface processes. However, the influence of surface processes on the nature of arc magmas in subduction zones remains poorly understood. Nevertheless, subducted sediments may preserve records of surface climatic fluctuations, leading to distinct chemical heterogeneities in Earth's interior. Northeast (NE) Asia, as a typical region of sequential tectonic regimes, provides potential in studying various influences of surface processes on the nature of arc magmas in subduction zones owing to occurrence of Permian and early Mesozoic mafic arc rocks with different geochemical features.

Previous studies suggest that the early Permian calc-alkaline volcanic rocks in the eastern margin of the Jiamusi Massif, together with the Yuejinshan accretionary complex, reveal that westward subduction of the Paleo-Asian oceanic plate occurred beneath the Jiamusi Massif, whereas the Late Triassic and Early Jurassic calc-alkaline igneous rocks, along with the coeval porphyry-type Cu-Mo deposits and Jurassic accretionary complexes in eastern Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces (NE China), indicate that the initial subduction of the Paleo-Pacific plate beneath Eurasia took place during the Late Triassic-Early Jurassic.

New whole-rock Mo-Zn-Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic data for these early Permian (293 Ma) and the Late Triassic (202–213 Ma)-Early Jurassic (183–185 Ma) mafic igneous rocks indicate: 1) that the synergistic changes in Sr-Nd-Pb isotope compositions have revealed the contribution of global subducting sediments (GLOSS); 2) that the consistent Zn isotopic compositions (δ66Zn = 0.20‰ to 0.30‰), similar to those of mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB, δ66Zn = 0.28‰ ± 0.06‰; Wang et al., 2017), excluded the potential contribution of carbonates (generally low δ66Zn) and the mantle partial melting (no correlations with MgO); 3) that the early Permian basaltic rocks exhibit generally lighter Mo isotopic signatures (δ98Mo = -0.99‰ to -0.07‰) compared to the depleted MORB mantle (DMM, δ98Mo = -0.204‰ ± 0.008‰; McCoy-West et al., 2019), suggesting that the early Permian mafic arc magmas were sourced from a lithospheric mantle modified by oxidized sediment; and 4) that the Late Triassic-Early Jurassic gabbros display generally heavier Mo isotopic compositions (δ98Mo = -0.18‰ to 0.54‰) than DMM, suggesting the Late Triassic-Early Jurassic gabbros were sourced from a lithospheric mantle modified by reduced sediment. Taken together, we conclude that the lithospheric mantle in NE Asia experienced the transformation from oxidized to reduced sediment modifications during early Permian to early Mesozoic and that different surface processes control nature of arc magmas in subduction zones. These conclusions are also supported by the late Paleozoic-early Mesozoic stratigraphic records. In summary, our investigation demonstrates that arc magmas exhibit limited geochemical variability in non-redox-sensitive elemental signature despite extreme environmental perturbations, but redox-sensitive isotopes (such as Mo) could serve as sensitive tracers of recording climatic fluctuations, especially in paleo-surface redox events.

This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant: U2244201).

  • Wang et al. (2017). Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 198, 151–167.
  • McCoy-West et al. (2019). Nature Geoscience, 12, 946–951.

How to cite: Zhang, W., Tang, J., Xu, W., Wang, F., and Hong, K.: Effects of surface processes on nature of arc magmas in subduction zones revealed by Mo-Zn isotopes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4812, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4812, 2026.

Fluid production from dehydration reactions and fluid migration in the subducting slab impact various subduction processes, including intraslab and megathrust earthquakes, episodic tremor and slip, mantle wedge metasomatism, and arc-magma genesis. To better understand these processes, it is crucial to determine the migration and the resulting distribution of fluids within the slab and along the slab surface.

A variety of geophysical observations and field studies suggest that intraslab updip fluid migration is plausible, yet quantitative numerical investigations of this process remain limited. So far, only models that incorporate compaction pressure gradients generated by fluids released during dehydration reactions have offered a convincing mechanism [1]. These models, however, are still not widely explored, and the influence of pre-subduction hydration of the oceanic mantle is particularly poorly constrained. In our study [2], we use a 2-D two-phase flow model to investigate this effect under various initial slab-mantle hydration states and slab thermal conditions, both of which impact the depth extent of the stability of hydrous minerals. We focus on the lateral shift between the site of dehydration reactions and the location of fluid outflux at the top of the slab due to intraslab updip migration. Our simulations indicate that prominent updip pathways develop along the segments of antigorite and chlorite breakdown fronts that run sub-parallel to the slab interface. The resulting updip fluid migration to depths as shallow as 30–40 km increases the volume of fluids that flux out across the slab surface at relatively shallow depths. Such behavior is most pronounced in young (< ~30 Ma), warm slabs, where the stability zones of hydrous phases in the incoming oceanic mantle are relatively thin (< ~20-km thick), enabling the development of the slab-parallel dehydration fronts that enhance updip flow.

 

[1] Wison et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.05.052
[2] Cerpa & Wada, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030609

How to cite: Cerpa, N. and Wada, I.: Hydration state of the incoming plate and updip fluid migration in the slab mantle, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5051, 2026.

EGU26-6115 | Posters on site | GD2.1

Spatial clustering of deep earthquakes controlled by water carriers 

Feng Wang and Wen-Yuan Zhao

Deep earthquakes within subducting slab into the mantle transition zone (MTZ) often exhibit spatial variations along the strike of the slab. Existing mechanisms, including dehydration embrittlement, transformational faulting, and thermal shear instability, have been proposed to explain the cause of deep earthquakes; however, these hypotheses fail to account for the deep earthquake cluster within stagnant slab. Given that variable water input plays a crucial role in the distribution of seismicity within the arc system, spatial variations in the transport of subducted water could potentially control the clustering of deep-focus earthquakes in the MTZ. Northeast (NE) Asia is an ideal region to investigate this problem, where the Pacific slab stagnates continuously from north to south and extends westward for <1000 km in the MTZ, with deep seismicity occurring in clusters in the MTZ. Meanwhile, previous studies have shown that surficial water can be transported to the MTZ in this region (Xing et al., 2024), and the thermal state of subducting slab beneath NE Japan exhibits along-strike variability, with slab temperature decreasing gradually from north to south (Wada et al., 2015), implying the potential spatial variations in deep water cycling.

Here, we report major and trace element compositions, together with Sr-Nd-B isotopic data of basalts in NE Asia to trace deep water cycling and investigate the spatial co-variations between water carriers and deep earthquakes in Northeast Asia. Our results reveal prominent along-strike differences in B isotopic compositions. Northern arc basalts from Hokkaido show heavy and variable δ11B values (−14.55‰ to +6.47‰), whereas associated intraplate basalts have light δ11B values (−10.44‰ to −5.15‰). In contrast, southern arc basalts from Honshu display homogeneous and light δ11B values (−4.7‰ to −3.1‰; Moriguti et al., 2004), against variable intraplate region (−8.42‰ to +7.71‰). These contrasts reflect distinct carriers transporting water into the MTZ. In the north, dehydration of hydrous minerals leaves minimal water carried by nominally anhydrous minerals, which corresponds to the absence of deep-focus earthquakes in the MTZ. Conversely, dense hydrous magnesium silicates transport large amounts of water into the MTZ in the south, consistent with a notable cluster of deep-focus earthquakes. Therefore, we conclude that water carriers into the MTZ critically control along-strike earthquake clustering.

This work was financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant 2022YFF0801002) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42372065).

 

References:

Wada et al., 2015, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 426, p. 76-88.

Moriguti et al., 2004, Chemical Geology, v. 212, p. 81-100.

Xing et al., 2024, Nature Geoscience, v. 17, p. 579-585.

How to cite: Wang, F. and Zhao, W.-Y.: Spatial clustering of deep earthquakes controlled by water carriers, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6115, 2026.

EGU26-6193 | Orals | GD2.1

Revisiting the temporal evolution of oceanic subduction 

Lijun Liu, Zebin Cao, Yanchong Li, Xinyu Li, Hao Dong, and Diandian Peng

Although based off the elegant theory of thermal boundary layer, the evolution of oceanic plate remains debated, especially regarding its fate after subduction. Traditional geodynamic exercises tend to approximate oceanic subduction using regional 2D or 3D models, but models that evaluate the full history of subduction are still rare, largely due to the challenge in reproducing realistic Earth subduction and unaffordable computational costs. In recent years, we devoted to the development of multi-scale subduction models with data assimilation that simultaneously simulate all relevant subduction processes through geological history while taking various observational constraints into account. Based on these models, we revisited several aspects of the evolving oceanic slabs within the convective mantle. For example, we examined the trajectory of subducted slabs over time, quantified the sinking rate of slabs, as well as reevaluated the driving forces of plate motion, the asthenosphere-lithosphere interaction, and associated plume dynamics. In this presentation, we will share our recent progress on these topics.

How to cite: Liu, L., Cao, Z., Li, Y., Li, X., Dong, H., and Peng, D.: Revisiting the temporal evolution of oceanic subduction, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6193, 2026.

Trench curvature, as the surface expression of the three-dimensional subduction system, has a close affinity with the subduction dynamics; however, the underlying mechanisms remain enigmatic. Back-arc basins, as natural products of subduction zone evolution, record the development of arcuate trenches. Most modern back-arc basins occur in the western Pacific, where subduction zone trenches commonly exhibit no-linear geometries. Among them, the Japan Sea represents a typical example, characterized by the trench convex toward the subducting plate.

Here, we present major and trace element together with Sr-Nd-Mg isotopic data of back-arc basalts (BABB) drilled along strike in the Japan Sea to explore the potential link between trench curvature and lateral variations in subducted materials. The Nb/Zr ratios of BABB in the central segment increase and subsequently decrease, whereas those in the north show a markedly delayed decrease, which indicates that the central back-arc basin had reached a mature spreading stage. In addition, Nd isotopic values of central BABB show higher than those in the south, indicating a negligible contribution from slab-derived components. This implies that the central back-arc basin is located far away from the trench and experienced nearly complete extension. These observations reveal pronounced along-strike variations in the extent of back-arc spreading, with the northern basin remaining nascent, whereas the central segment has evolved to a mature stage. This is consistent with the observation that the central segment of the trench develops a progressive curvature toward the subducting plate, suggesting that the evolution of back-arc spreading exerts a primary control on trench curvature. In particular, along-strike changes in Mg isotopes reveal the lateral variations in volatile cycling. BABB from the northern region with limited spreading exhibit extremely heavy δ26Mg values (−0.30‰ to +0.34‰), suggesting contributions of water-dominated fluids derived from serpentinite. In contrast, BABB from the central region with mature back-arc spreading show relatively light δ26Mg values (-0.57‰ to 0.06‰), primarily reflecting the involvement of deep subducted carbonates.

The spatial variations in volatile cycling correlate well with the extent of back-arc spreading. Volatiles reduce mantle viscosity and weaken the overlying mantle wedge, thereby regulating mantle rheology. It is noted that the magnitude of this effect varies substantially among different volatile species. Among them, carbon exerts a stronger influence on mantle rheology than water (Fei et al., 2013; Kono et al., 2014). This is consistent with the greater extent of back-arc spreading in the central segment, suggesting that along-strike variations in volatile cycling modulate the mantle rheology, thereby governing the evolution of trench curvature.

This work was financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant 2022YFF0801002) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42372065).

References:

Fei et al., 2013, Nature, v. 498, p.213-215.

Kono et al., 2014, Nature Communications, v. 5, p.5091.

How to cite: Zhao, W.-Y. and Wang, F.: Along-strike variations in volatile cycling control trench curvature associated with back-arc spreading, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6329, 2026.

Preserving vital insights into deep-crustal processes and the tectonic evolution of the Tonian northwestern Yangtze Block, the Liujiaping intrusive complex remains enigmatic regarding its precise petrogenesis and tectonic context. Herein, we present new data on petrography, zircon U–Pb geochronology, zircon Hf isotopes, whole-rock major and trace elements, whole-rock Sr–Nd isotopes and mineral chemistry of the Xiangfengkou granodiorite, the Maoping granite and the Chenjiagou granite from the Liujiaping batholith. LA–ICP–MS zircon U–Pb dating reveals their crystallization ages at ca. 802–796 Ma in the Tonian. The Xiangfengkou granodiorite is characterized by high A/CNK ratios of 1.00–1.10 and molar (Fe+Mg) values of 0.08–0.11. Zircons exhibit εHf(t) values of −0.39 to +6.79, while the whole rocks have initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios of 0.707189–0.708169 and εNd(t) values of −1.07 to +0.55. The Maoping and Chenjiagou granites show similar geochemical compositions (A/CNK=0.94–1.09, molar Fe+Mg=0.03–0.05), with zircon εHf(t) values ranging from +1.26 to +7.93, initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios of 0.706313–0.706315, and εNd(t) values of 0.00 to +0.32. All samples display a pronounced negative correlation between A/CNK and Fe + Mg, indicative of the typical high-mafic I-type granitoid characteristics. Combined mineralogical and geochemical data suggest that these granitoids were mainly generated by the partial melting of a newly formed mafic lower crust. The notably high Fe, Mg, Ti and Ca contents further imply the entrainment of Fe-Mg-Ti-Ca-rich minerals during melt segregation. Strong positive correlations between Ti and Ca contents with maficity, as well as a negative correlation between A/CNK and maficity, indicate that a peritectic assemblage entrainment process involving transitional minerals (e.g., clinopyroxene, plagioclase and ilmenite) occurred during biotite-hornblende coupled melting. The geochemical, isotopic and mineralogical evidence collectively support the view that the Liujiaping granitoids formed in a subduction-related active continental margin setting. Together with previous studies, these results further demonstrate that the northwestern to western margin of the Yangtze Block was part of a long-lived subduction-related active continental margin, consistent with its tectonic position along the periphery of the Rodinia supercontinent.

How to cite: Li, Y.: Tonian crustal melting triggered by subduction along the Rodinia periphery: Evidence from the Liujiaping batholith, NW Yangtze Block, South China, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6351, 2026.

EGU26-6355 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.1

Lithospheric mantle multi-stage metasomatism: Constraints from Sr-Nd-Pb-Mo isotopes of Mesozoic basaltic andesites in the Xing'an Massif 

Yiting Xue, Jie Tang, Wenliang Xu, Feng Wang, and Zhigao Wang

Subduction zones represent primary sites for material exchange between the mantle and crust. Over the long course of geological history, the mantle is frequently subjected to superimposed reworking by materials derived from distinct subduction zones. However, relatively few studies have focused on mantle multi-stage metasomatism driven by different tectonic systems. The Xing’an Massif, situated in the eastern segment of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt, was influenced by the Mongol-Okhotsk and Paleo-Pacific tectonic systems during the Mesozoic. Consequently, systematic analysis of spatiotemporal geochemical variations in Mesozoic igneous rocks across this region provides valuable constraints for deciphering mantle multi-stage metasomatism. Here, we report integrated elemental and Sr-Nd-Pb-Mo isotopic analyses of the Late Triassic and late Early Cretaceous basaltic andesites from the Xing’an Massif. The Late Triassic samples exhibit elevated δ98/95Mo values (+0.49‰ to +0.56‰), which are significantly higher than the normal mantle value of -0.20‰ ±0.01‰. They also show enrichment in fluid-mobile elements (e.g., Ba, Cs) and high Sr/Nd ratios (34 to 36). Combined with high Ce/Mo ratios (115 to 145) and moderately enriched Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic compositions, these features indicate the mantle source originated from the partial melting of a mantle wedge metasomatized by both serpentinite-derived fluids and sediment-derived melts during the southward subduction of the Mongol-Okhotsk oceanic plate. The late Early Cretaceous basaltic andesites exhibit high δ98/95Mo values (-0.13‰ to +0.70‰) and pronounced enrichment in fluid-mobile elements, demonstrating geochemical affinities to the Late Triassic rocks. This similarity implies that the late Early Cretaceous mantle source components were inherited from pre-existing Late Triassic metasomatized mantle domains. However, their more enriched Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic compositions than those of Late Triassic counterparts suggest the addition of subsequent sediment melts contributed to their mantle source. Magmatism, tectonism, and paleomagnetic evidence indicate that the eastern segment of the Mongol-Okhotsk Ocean closed during the Middle Jurassic to Early Cretaceous. Therefore, these additional sediment melts should have been derived from the Paleo-Pacific Plate. Collectively, this study identifies the multi-stage metasomatism of mantle by materials derived from different subduction zones, thereby providing new constraints for reconstructing the multi-stage tectonic transition processes and the spatiotemporal extent of their impacts in Northeast Asia.

This work was financially supported by the China National Science and Technology Major Project (No. 2024ZD1001104) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. U2244201).

How to cite: Xue, Y., Tang, J., Xu, W., Wang, F., and Wang, Z.: Lithospheric mantle multi-stage metasomatism: Constraints from Sr-Nd-Pb-Mo isotopes of Mesozoic basaltic andesites in the Xing'an Massif, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6355, 2026.

EGU26-6402 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.1

The conditions for Oligocene diapiric melting of the subducted mélange in the NE Asia 

Kechun Hong, Feng Wang, and Wenliang Xu

Subduction zones are the main sites of surficial material transfer from subducted slab into the mantle wedge. Increasing numbers of studies have proposed a material-transport models that subducted mélanges detach as solid-state diapirs from the slab-top and then partially melt at higher temperatures as they ascend through the mantle wedge (Nielsen and Marschall, 2017). While the ability to diapiric melting of subducted mélanges was previously constrained in experimental and numerical models, the conditions for its formation were poorly investigated in actual subduction zones.

Here, we report major- and trace-element, and Sr-Nd-Mg-Zn isotopic results for the Oligocene syenites in NE Asia, inferring their affinity with diapiric melting of subducted mélanges as well as mantle dynamics. Furthermore, we investigate the partial melting behaviors of natural mélanges at estimated P-T conditions at which mélange melting begins. These syenites exhibit Hf-Nd fractionation but little variation in Nd isotopes (Nielsen and Marschall, 2017). Moreover, these syenites have heavy Mg isotopic compositions (δ26Mg=−0.02‰~+0.57‰), consistent with the inferred residual components of mélange after dehydration, jointly supporting the mélange-diapir melting model. Our results and the tectonic setting indicate that melting of mélange diapirs occurred pref­erentially during tectonic transitions, such as the formation of a back-arc basin triggered by trench-perpendicular mantle flow. The low-viscosity mantle with an incompressible stress field triggered melting of the mélange diapirs. We roughly constrain the P-T conditions at which mélange melting begins. These syenites have higher LREEs and HFSEs contents than the experimental melts of subducted mélange, which is consistent with the addition of the carbonated silicate melts derived from the carbonated peridotites. The Zn-Sr-Nd isotopic compositions of syenites exhibit trends toward carbonated peridotites, jointly indicating the interaction between molten subducted mélange and carbonated peridotites. Generation of carbonated silicate melts occurs at ≤6 GPa. Moreover, magnesite was involved in the magmatic processes of carbonated peridotites, as recorded by relatively heavy Zn isotopic compositions with depleted Sr and Nd isotopic compositions. Magnesite is stable at pressures of ≥4.5 GPa. Therefore, the Oligocene mélange diapiric melting possibly occurred at the asthenospheric depths assumed by the seismic tomography (Tamura et al., 2002; Hong et al., 2024).

We further investigate the partial melting behaviors on natural sediment-dominated mélange materials from the NE Asian Margin. We performed a series of three melting experiments using large-volume press at estimated P-T conditions (4-6 GPa, 1300-1400 ℃). Partial melts produced in our experiments have trace-element abundance patterns that are typical of alkaline arc lavas, such as enrichment in LILEs and depletion in Nb and Ta. The major- and trace-element compositions of experimental melts are consistent with the Oligocene syenites in NE Asia. These findings confirmed that mélange diapiric melting more possibly occurred in asthenosphere, which is deeper than the depth inferred in previous studies.

This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42372065 and 424B2017).

 

References:

Hong, et al., 2024, Geology, v. 52, p. 539-544.

Nielsen, and Marschall, 2017, Science Advances, v. 3.

Tamura, et al., 2002, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 197, p. 105-116.

How to cite: Hong, K., Wang, F., and Xu, W.: The conditions for Oligocene diapiric melting of the subducted mélange in the NE Asia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6402, 2026.

EGU26-6502 | ECS | Orals | GD2.1

Evaluating the role of the overriding-plate tectonics on the position of arc volcanism 

Lorine Bonnamy, Nestor Cerpa, Serge Lallemand, and Diane Arcay

The mechanisms that have been proposed to control the position of volcanic arcs in subduction zones can be broadly divided into two categories. Geophysical and geodynamical studies emphasize a “deep-thermal control” related to the thermal state of the subducting plate and the mantle wedge, whereas field-based regional studies highlight a “tectonic control” driven by deformation and the tectonic configuration of the overriding plate. While the deep-thermal controls have been widely investigated statistically at the global scale, the influence of overriding-plate tectonics on arc position remains underexplored. 

In this study, we investigate both perspectives for the majority of present-day subduction zones, with a particular focus on tectonic controls. We first build an accurate dataset of the position of the Holocene arc volcanoes, using the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program, with respect to the subducting plate as defined by the Slab2.0 model (Hayes et al., 2018). We then construct a dataset describing the mean tectonic regime of arc regions by inverting the stress state from focal mechanisms compiled from global and regional catalogs, complemented by information on major active geological structures near the arc. These two datasets, arc location relative to the subducting plate and tectonic regime in the arc vicinity, are combined to address the dominant control on the volcanic arc position. 

In regions such as those spanning from the Mariana Islands to the southern Kuril Islands and the Tonga-Kermadec subduction zones, we find that slab-top depth beneath the volcanic front (i.e., the volcanoes closest to the trench, HVF) increases with slab age and decreases with increasing subduction velocity. These trends are consistent with the volcanic front position being primarily controlled by the thermal state near the slab top or within the proximal mantle wedge. 

In contrast, in regions lacking trends indicative of deep-thermal controls (i.e., Indonesia), another control likely dominates. In particular, we show that in Mexico-Central America and the Ryukyu-Nankai subduction zones, HVF values vary with the tectonic regime: HVF tends to be slightly lower in extensional settings than in compressional ones. Our interpretation is that, in these regions, deep-thermal controls are overprinted by the tectonic regime of the overriding plate. 

For a large subset of regions, including the Andes and the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zones, we do not identify any clear signal.

At the global scale, arcs governed by deep-thermal controls seem to occur mostly where the overriding plate is oceanic, whereas those whose position varies with the tectonic regime are mainly found in continental settings, suggesting the influence of the overriding-plate nature.



How to cite: Bonnamy, L., Cerpa, N., Lallemand, S., and Arcay, D.: Evaluating the role of the overriding-plate tectonics on the position of arc volcanism, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6502, 2026.

EGU26-6886 | ECS | Orals | GD2.1

Beyond Equilibrium: Kinetic Thresholds and Rheological Feedbacks Create a Potentially Complex 410 in Slab Regions 

Buchanan Kerswell, John Wheeler, Rene Gassmöller, J. Huw Davies, Isabel Papanagnou, and Sanne Cottaar

The seismic expression of Earth's 410 km discontinuity varies across tectonic settings, from sharp, high-amplitude interfaces to broad transitions—patterns that cannot be explained by equilibrium thermodynamics without invoking large-scale thermal or compositional heterogeneities. Laboratory experiments show the olivine ⇔ wadsleyite phase transition responsible for the 410 is rate-limited, yet previous numerical studies have not directly evaluated the sensitivity of 410 structure to kinetic and rheological factors. Here we investigate these relationships by coupling a grain-scale, interface-controlled olivine ⇔ wadsleyite growth model to compressible simulations of mantle plumes and subducting slabs. We vary kinetic parameters across seven orders of magnitude and quantify the resulting 410 displacements and widths. Our results reveal an asymmetry between hot and cold environments. In plumes, high temperatures produce sharp 410s (2–3 km wide) regardless of kinetics. In slabs, kinetics exert first-order control on 410 structure through three regimes: (1) quasi-equilibrium conditions producing narrow, uplifted 410s and continuous slab descent; (2) intermediate reaction rates generating broader, deeper 410s with metastable olivine wedges resisting downward slab motion; and (3) ultra-sluggish reaction rates causing slab stagnation with re-sharpened, deeply displaced 410s (< 100 km). Rheological contrasts modulate these kinetic effects by controlling slab geometry and residence time in the phase transition zone. These findings demonstrate that reaction rates strongly influence 410 structure in subduction zones, establishing the 410 as a potential seismological constraint on upper mantle kinetic processes, particularly in cold environments where disequilibrium effects are amplified.

How to cite: Kerswell, B., Wheeler, J., Gassmöller, R., Davies, J. H., Papanagnou, I., and Cottaar, S.: Beyond Equilibrium: Kinetic Thresholds and Rheological Feedbacks Create a Potentially Complex 410 in Slab Regions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6886, 2026.

EGU26-7076 | ECS | Orals | GD2.1

Tin isotope fractionation in arc magmas controlled by degassing and slab input 

Weicheng Jiang, Jiaxin She, Alexandra Davidson, Chunfei Chen, Chris Firth, Simon Turner, Weiqiang Li, Trevor Ireland, Paolo Sossi, Jinghua Wu, and Shane Cronin

Arc magmatism plays a critical role in continental crustal growth and the formation of significant metal deposits, including granite-related tin (Sn) systems. However, the mechanisms governing Sn transport and isotopic fractionation at convergent margins remain poorly constrained due to a lack of systematic studies across spatial variations (arc-front to rear-arc) and magmatic-hydrothermal transitions. In this study, we present high-precision Sn isotopic data for lavas, pumices, and hydrothermal products from Whakaari (arc-front) and Taranaki (rear-arc) in the Kermadec system, alongside magmatic H2O concentrations estimated from clinopyroxene. Whakaari lavas exhibit significant variation (δ122/118Sn = –0.241‰ to 0.361‰). The heaviest values are attributed to extensive shallow degassing (>40%), with Rayleigh modeling indicating the preferential partitioning of light Sn isotopes into the vapor phase—a process corroborated by low magmatic water contents (avg. 0.83 wt.%). In contrast, Taranaki samples show limited variation (δ122/118Sn = 0.124 to 0.235‰). While amphibole and titanomagnetite fractionation may lower bulk-rock values, these processes cannot explain why both volcanoes are isotopically lighter than MORB (0.367 ± 0.087‰).

We propose that this light Sn signature originates from the subducted slab. Simulations suggest that the addition of 5–20% reduced, Cl-rich fluids derived from altered oceanic crust (AOC) can effectively lower arc magma δ122/118Sn. Regardless of the specific redox mechanism, slab-derived fluids dominate the Sn budget of the mantle wedge and the resulting arc magmas. Our results suggest that widespread light Sn isotope signatures serve as a diagnostic feature of fluid-mediated mass transfer in subduction zones. By combining spatial variations from arc-front to rear-arc, this study provides a robust geochemical framework to decipher slab-mantle interactions and the dynamic cycling of metals at convergent margins.

How to cite: Jiang, W., She, J., Davidson, A., Chen, C., Firth, C., Turner, S., Li, W., Ireland, T., Sossi, P., Wu, J., and Cronin, S.: Tin isotope fractionation in arc magmas controlled by degassing and slab input, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7076, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7076, 2026.

We present new zircon U–Pb–Hf and whole-rock geochemical data for Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous volcanic rocks of the Great Xing’an Range, NE China, to constrain the influence of overprinting by the Mongol–Okhotsk and Paleo-Pacific tectonic regimes on NE Asia. The results of SIMS and LA–ICP–MS zircon U–Pb dating indicate that the late Mesozoic volcanism in the Great Xing’an Range occurred in three stages: Late Jurassic (158–153 Ma), early Early Cretaceous (ca. 141 Ma), and late Early Cretaceous (131–130 Ma). Based on our results and data from the literature, we revise the late Mesozoic stratigraphic framework of the Great Xing’an Range. The Middle Jurassic hiatus in the northern part of the range suggests crustal thickening related to the closure of the Mongol–Okhotsk Ocean. Late Jurassic andesites are geochemically similar to adakites generated by partial melting of delaminated lower crust. The early Early Cretaceous volcanic rocks are dominated by A-type rhyolites with zircon eHf(t) values of + 5.3 to + 10.1 and TDM2 ages of 857–498 Ma, which suggest that the primary magma was derived via partial melting of newly accreted crust. The Late Jurassic–early Early Cretaceous volcanic rocks were formed in an extensional environment related to the collapse of thickened lithosphere after the closure of the Mongol–Okhotsk Ocean. The late Early Cretaceous A-type rhyolites, bimodal volcanic rocks, and coeval rift basins were formed in an extensional setting related to westward subduction of the Paleo-Pacific Plate.

How to cite: Li, Y.: Late Mesozoic stratigraphic framework of the Great Xing’an Range, NEChina, and overprinting by the Mongol–Okhotsk and Paleo-Pacifictectonic regimes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7429, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7429, 2026.

EGU26-7936 | Orals | GD2.1

Metasomatization of the mantle by slab-derived silicic- and carbonate-rich fluids: a record from the world’s youngest UHP terrane, Papua New Guinea 

Stacia M. Gordon, Joel W. DesOrmeau, Roberto F. Weinberg, Chris M. Fisher, Johannes Hammerli, Anthony I.S. Kemp, Jessie Shields, Timothy A. Little, and Andrew Tomkins

Fluids from subducted slabs are thought to play a major role in mass transfer between the solid Earth and the atmosphere, yet their properties are typically inferred rather than observed. Direct evidence is rare because of their transient properties and later melting and tectonism overwriting their signatures. The active Woodlark rift in southeastern Papua New Guinea exposes the youngest known (ca. 5 Ma) ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) terrane on Earth. Structural data indicates that the PNG UHP terrane was exhumed as a diapir that rose through the former mantle wedge within the active continental rift. Multiple eclogites within the UHP terrane preserve evidence for metasomatic interaction with a fluid that crystallized apatite+Fe-rich dolomite+zircon+rutile+multiple sulfur phases (pyrite, anhydrite, barite) in a vein-like network within the matrix. The zircon associated with the fluid also contain abundant multi-phase solid inclusions, including nanogranite and carbonate-bearing assemblages, plus omphacite and anhydrite+pyrite inclusions that suggest crystallization at high-pressures (>1.6 GPa). To investigate the source and composition of the fluid, we collected major- and trace-element data and Sr-Nd isotopes from apatite and dolomite and trace-element data from rutile in the vein network. Apatite is more enriched in F and OH, compared to Cl, and also is enriched in SO3 and Sr. Apatite yields uniform εNdi = ~+3 and initial 87Sr/86Sr = ~0.70427. Dolomite is enriched in Sr and LREE and yields 87Sr/86Sr = ~0.70424. Finally, rutile yields Nb/Ta of 15–26, falling mostly within chondritic- to superchondritic values. The mineral assemblage and their trace-element signatures indicate the phases crystallized out of a fluid at eclogite-facies conditions, likely during early exhumation, and that overall, the fluid was volatile-rich (C-O-H-S-F) and transported abundant incompatible (Zr, Hf, Ti, Nb, Ta) and heat-producing (K, U, Th) elements. The fluid is interpreted to be sourced from subducted, carbonate-rich sediments from earlier subducted oceanic crust. The fluid ascended from the downgoing plate to metasomatize sub-arc mantle. Subsequently, the UHP terrane was subducted and then interacted with fluids derived from this metasomatized mantle, as both the UHP terrane and former mantle wedge underwent near isothermal-decompression within the active rift. The results have multiple implications. Fluids with this composition can lead to the formation of exotic lava/magma compositions, such as ultrapotassic and alkaline lavas. In addition, the presence of sulfate phases and the elevated SO3 content in apatite indicates the fluid was oxidized, which enhances the potential to form porphyry copper-gold deposits commonly associated with arc systems. Finally, the superchrondritic Nb/Ta values observed in the rutile crystallized from the fluid indicate that some of the missing elements of the Nb-Ta paradox are likely stored within the metasomatized mantle. This study is the first to directly sample the composition of these fluids captured by subducted crustal rocks moving through a former mantle wedge, rather than relying on inferences from exhumed peridotites or volcanic rock compositions.

How to cite: Gordon, S. M., DesOrmeau, J. W., Weinberg, R. F., Fisher, C. M., Hammerli, J., Kemp, A. I. S., Shields, J., Little, T. A., and Tomkins, A.: Metasomatization of the mantle by slab-derived silicic- and carbonate-rich fluids: a record from the world’s youngest UHP terrane, Papua New Guinea, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7936, 2026.

EGU26-7953 | Orals | GD2.1 | Highlight

Subduction invasion of the Atlantic 

João C. Duarte, Nicolas Riel, Wouter P. Schellart, Filipe Rosas, and Jaime Almeida

Subduction initiation in Atlantic-type oceans is a fundamental process in the evolution of oceanic basins, described by the Wilson cycle. However, it is widely known that subduction zones are not easy to initiate and require a combination of factors, including forcing from nearby active subduction zones. There are currently three subduction systems in the Atlantic: the Lesser Antilles, Scotia and Gibraltar arcs. In recent years, these subduction systems have been studied using a combination of methods, including advanced numerical models that have yielded new insights into the dynamics of subduction initiation. Both the Scotia and Lesser Antilles arcs seem to be cases of subduction transfer from the Pacific into the Atlantic, while the Gibraltar Arc may constitute a case of a direct invasion of a Mediterranean slab. Here, we will briefly review the main characteristics of these arcs and present recent geodynamic models of their evolution. Models show that, while these arcs share some commonalities, they are also fundamentally different. These results suggest that despite subduction initiation being a non-trivial process, it is an unescapable outcome of the Earth’s oceans evolution.

 

This work is supported by FCT, I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC): LA/P/0068/2020 - https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020, UID/50019/2025, https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/PRR/50019/2025, UID/PRR2/50019/2025

 

How to cite: Duarte, J. C., Riel, N., Schellart, W. P., Rosas, F., and Almeida, J.: Subduction invasion of the Atlantic, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7953, 2026.

EGU26-8436 | Posters on site | GD2.1

Morphological and geothermal features around subducted seamount in Hyuga-Nada, western Nankai Trough 

Masataka Kinoshita, Yoshitaka Hashimoto, Yohei Hamada, Tomohiro Toki, and Rie Nakata

The interaction between subducting seamounts and overriding sediments perturbs the stress field and effective strength, affecting the conditions for megathrust earthquake generation and likely weakens interplate coupling. In the westernmost Nankai Trough around Hyuga-nada, M8-class earthquakes have not been reported yet. The Kyushu–Palau Ridge (KPR), marking the boundary between the Shikoku Basin and the West Philippine Basin (WPB), is subducting beneath Hyuga-nada. Slow earthquakes are frequently observed around the subducted KPR (sKPR). Key controlling factors for earthquake generation include seamount geometry, stress perturbations induced by subduction, and weakening plus permeability enhancement due to fracturing of the overriding strata.

In addition to estimating the BSR-derived heat flow, we conducted seafloor heat flow measurements, combined with interpretation of reflection seismic data, to delineate the morphology of the overriding plate and near-surface deformation structures. The sKPR lies beneath the Toi Seamount (Tsmt, exposed above the seafloor). Its eastern and western edges coincide with magnetic anomaly boundaries, while its northern edge corresponds to the northern slope of Tsmt. The coincidence between steep basement slopes and areas of frequent low-frequency tremors (LFTs) suggests that LFT activity is controlled by the “edges” of sKPR.

The influence of KPR subduction is evident in seafloor morphology and deformation structures. Numerous faults and lineaments are identified beneath the seafloor, with compressional structures dominant to the N–NW and extensional structures to SE. In the N–NW, multiple NE–SW trending ridges are present, and thrusts formed during accretionary prism development may have been exhumed by seamount collision. In contrast, the SE side is characterized by abundant collapse and landslide deposits.

Heat flow estimated from BSR depths around sKPR is ~40 mW/m² or lower, consistent with surface heat flow measurements, reflecting the cold (old) nature of the subducted sKPR and WPB. On the northern (leading) side, BSR-derived heat flow is lower (~25 mW/m²) above SW–NE trending thrust faults. This is likely due to seamount-driven compression and thickening of sediments, and reducing the thermal gradient. Blockage of sediment transport by Tsmt, also promotes thickening and cooling. Conversely, surface heat flows exceeding 300 mW/m² were observed near thrusts in front of Tsmt. While water temperature fluctuations, deep-sea turbidites, or slope erosion may contribute, the proximity to the base of a thrust-fault scarp, the identification of a low-velocity zone near the LFT cluster from OBS data, and chemical anomalies in pore waters suggest fluid expulsion along fault conduits under frontal compression. Poroealstic modeling supports this interpretation, showing pore fluid circulation induced by seamount loading if high permeability around the KPR is assumed. The fluid discharge is driven by the horizontal compression leading to overpressure and the fault pathway formation. However, the number of data points remains limited, alternative explanations cannot be excluded. Direct evidence of fluid discharge (e.g., biological communities) is lacking. Verification must therefore await future investigations.

How to cite: Kinoshita, M., Hashimoto, Y., Hamada, Y., Toki, T., and Nakata, R.: Morphological and geothermal features around subducted seamount in Hyuga-Nada, western Nankai Trough, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8436, 2026.

EGU26-9603 | ECS | Orals | GD2.1

Proxying Archean subduction using Phanerozoic I-type magmatism 

Daniel Gómez-Frutos and Hugo Moreira

Modern day crustal evolution is controlled by plate tectonics. I-type magmatism dominates Phanerozoic crustal growth and has been extensively used to study modern subduction systems and slab-mantle interactions. In contrast, Archean geodynamics remain poorly constrained, with no consensus on the existence of a primitive form of plate tectonics or subduction. This uncertainty largely results from a preservation bias: most Archean crust has been destroyed, and the surviving rock record shows an overprint of billions of years of overlapping, non-mutually exclusive processes such as metamorphism or hydrothermal alteration. As a result, identifying primary geochemical signatures indicative of specific Archean geodynamic mechanisms is not straightforward. In this work, we present a viable Phanerozoic proxy to Archean geodynamics using a global assessment of geochemical and experimental data. A comparison between Phanerozoic post-collisional magmatism and the Archean sanukitoid suite reveals a conspicuous geochemical resemblance based on major and trace element criteria. This common signature is coherent with derivation from a metasomatized-mantle source. The requirement for mantle metasomatism by felsic, upper-crustal material implies a mechanism capable of juxtaposing upper crust with the lithospheric mantle, potentially through continental subduction. Although this geochemical parallel does not necessarily imply a tectonic analogy, it demands active geodynamics during the Archean capable of generating hybrid lithospheric sources. Together, these observations support the use of Phanerozoic magmatic analogues as a framework for investigating Archean geodynamic processes.

How to cite: Gómez-Frutos, D. and Moreira, H.: Proxying Archean subduction using Phanerozoic I-type magmatism, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9603, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9603, 2026.

EGU26-9783 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.1

Slab dip angle variation controlled by evolving lateral pressure gradients 

Xiaoyi Li and Lijun Liu

The dip angle of subducting slabs is one of the key factors controlling mantle flow and upper-plate tectonic evolution. In the extreme case, flat subduction forms when the dip angle of the slab is less than 15°. Although this scenario accounts for only about 10% of the present-day global subduction system, it has profound geological significance for continental tectonic evolution, magmatic activities, and mantle–crust interactions. Previous studies have proposed multiple mechanisms influencing the evolution of slab dip, with the proposed controlling factors including the properties of the overriding plate, the buoyancy of the subducting slab, and plate convergence rates; however, a unified dynamical understanding has not yet been established. Based on a global geodynamical model with data assimilation that systematically simulates subduction evolution over the past 200 Ma, we quantitatively investigate the relationship between slab dip and its dynamical origin. We select representative subduction systems in East Asia, South America, and North America to analyze the evolution of slab dip over time from subduction initiation to termination.

The results reveal a new mechanism controlling slab dip angle: dynamic pressure in the mantle wedge. As subduction proceeds, the dynamic pressure in the mantle wedge generally decreases, leading to an increasing pressure difference across the subducting slab; this directly reduces the slab dip angle over time, as confirmed from all subduction zones considered. More tests show that the lateral pressure difference also fluctuates with time, with the slab dip angle demonstrating the same variation, further confirming their causal relationship. We conclude that this lateral force represents an important new mechanism driving changes in slab dip.

How to cite: Li, X. and Liu, L.: Slab dip angle variation controlled by evolving lateral pressure gradients, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9783, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9783, 2026.

EGU26-10032 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.1

Can subducting slab dynamics induce intraplate shortening at the trailing passive margins? 

Guy Fisch, Sascha Brune, Michael Pons, and Roi Granot

The pull force exerted by the down-going subducting oceanic slabs is the primary force driving the motion of the tectonic plates. This force has been shown to generate tensional stresses within the trailing part of subducting plates, which can induce extensional reactivation of inherited discontinuities and weaknesses, such as passive margins. Surprisingly, compressive intraplate stress conditions have also developed during subduction at the trailing passive margins, such as in northern Africa, resulting in spectacular geological fold-and-thrust belts. Whether these compressional features were formed due to the processes acting at the subduction plate boundary (e.g., the arrival of continental fragments into the subduction zone) or, instead, are related to the dynamics of the leading oceanic slab (e.g., the arrival of the down-going slab to the 660-km-deep mantle discontinuity) is unclear.

            Here we present a series of 2D numerical subduction models, utilizing the ASPECT geodynamic code. The models are kinematically driven, mimicking the far-field boundary forces acting on the subducting plate. We track the evolution of stresses and strains within the trailing passive margins, incorporated as a weak and thin crust between the oceanic and continental domains. Our preliminary results suggest that the stress field in the trailing passive margin responds to the behavior of the slab at depth. During the slab’s free sinking phase or during slab rollback, slab sinking rates across the upper mantle exceed the prescribed plate velocity, resulting in extensional stresses that are transmitted to, and concentrated at, the passive margin. In contrast, during the anchoring of the slab to the lower mantle (i.e., at 670 km depth) and during slab folding, the rates at which the leading slab is sinking in the upper mantle are lower than the prescribed plate velocity, inducing intraplate shortening at the trailing passive margin. The timescales and temporal behavior of passive margin deformation match those of slab dynamics, with fast slab buckling behavior leading to likewise fast oscillating stress changes in the margins. Our results may help explain the observed switches between tensional and compressional phases at the northern African passive margins and the overall heterogeneity of passive margin deformation styles within subducting plates, ranging from normal faulting and magmatism to shortening and folding.

How to cite: Fisch, G., Brune, S., Pons, M., and Granot, R.: Can subducting slab dynamics induce intraplate shortening at the trailing passive margins?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10032, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10032, 2026.

The pressure-temperature (P-T) evolution of subduction‐zone plate interfaces controls metamorphism, fluid flow, deformation, and seismicity. However, temperature estimates derived from exhumed rocks frequently exceed those predicted by subduction models, particularly at pressures below ~2.5 GPa. There are two main types of numerical subduction models: models that simulate subduction only without exhumation and models that simulate subduction and simultaneously ongoing exhumation. To investigate the discrepancy between modelled and rock-based temperature estimates, published numerical models that simulate both subduction and rock exhumation are re-examined. The analysis demonstrates that, at equivalent pressure, subduction plate interface temperatures are substantially lower during pure subduction (without exhumation) than during later stages when subduction and exhumation occur simultaneously. This increase in temperature results from advective heat transport, whereby exhuming rocks transfer heat from deeper, hotter regions to shallower levels of the subduction interface. Clockwise P-T paths recorded by exhumed rocks are consistent with this mechanism. Accounting for exhumation-related heat advection significantly improves agreement between modeled interface temperatures and rock-based P-T estimates. This heat advection effect is illustrated using as representative example the two-dimensional petrological-thermo-mechanical model of Vaughan-Hammon et al. (2022), which successfully reproduces P-T paths and metamorphic facies distributions in the Western Alps. Comparisons between interface P-T profiles during pure subduction and during combined subduction-exhumation stages show that interface temperatures at a given pressure can be elevated by more than 200 °C once exhumation initiates. A scaling analysis based on the Péclet number (Pe) combined with systematic two-dimensional numerical simulations of heat advection and diffusion along a channel generalize these results and provide a criterion for assessing the thermal impact of exhumation. Where exhumation occurs along the subduction interface and Pe > 1, advective heat transport can substantially raise interface temperatures. This framework applies to both oceanic and continental subduction zones and offers a potential explanation for the long-standing mismatch between subduction model temperature predictions and rock-based P-T data, particularly those associated with clockwise P-T paths.

Reference

Vaughan‐Hammon, J. D., Candioti, L. G., Duretz, T., & Schmalholz, S. M. (2022). Metamorphic facies distribution in the Western Alps predicted by petrological‐thermomechanical models of syn‐convergent exhumation. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 23(8), e2021GC009898, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GC009898.

How to cite: Schmalholz, S. M.: Heat advection during exhumation can explain high temperatures along the subduction plate interface, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10328, 2026.

EGU26-10383 | Posters on site | GD2.1

Coupled Serpentinization and Carbonation in the Outer-Rise Mantle: Implications for Slab Volatile Budgets 

Rui Zhang, Jianfeng Yang, and Liang Zhao

Volatile cycling in subduction zones plays a pivotal role in regulating long-term carbon storage and the habitability of Earth's deep biosphere. In particular, serpentinization of the subducting lithospheric mantle at outer-rise regions plays a pivotal role in shallow volatile cycling, facilitating both carbonation and the production of reduced volatiles such as hydrogen and methane. These reactions not only contribute to deep carbon storage but also provide chemical energy for sustaining subsurface microbial ecosystems. However, volatile fluxes associated with this process remain poorly constrained, primarily due to the inaccessibility of the outer-rise mantle, the scarcity of direct samples, and the inherent limitations of geophysical resolution at depth. Consequently, the partitioning and fate of slab-derived volatiles prior to deep subduction remain critical unknowns. Here, we present high-resolution two-dimensional visco-elasto-plastic models that simulate coupled serpentinization and carbonation within the faulted oceanic mantle seaward of the trench. Our results show that carbonation efficiency is primarily governed by the degree of serpentinization and the partial pressure of CO₂ in infiltrating fluids. These findings provide quantitative constraints on volatile processing in the shallow slab mantle and underscore the role of tectonically focused hydration in shaping deep carbon fluxes. More broadly, they highlight how slab deformation influences the geochemical and energetic architecture of Earth's deep subsurface.

How to cite: Zhang, R., Yang, J., and Zhao, L.: Coupled Serpentinization and Carbonation in the Outer-Rise Mantle: Implications for Slab Volatile Budgets, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10383, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10383, 2026.

EGU26-10759 | ECS | Orals | GD2.1

Interactions between spatial-dislocated mantle plumes and subduction plates 

Zhuo Fan, Jie Liao, and Zewei Wang

Plumes ascending from deep mantle and subducting plates sinking from lithosphere play vital roles in the recycling of the Earth system. Although mantle plumes and subduction zones are considered independent in their spatial distribution, many geophysical and geochemical investigations suggest frequent interactions between them (Fletcher & Wyman, 2015; Saki et al., 2024). Furthermore, increasing tomography research have shown globally widespread low-velocity anomalies beneath the subduction zones (Amaru, 2007; Lu et al., 2019; Yang et al., 2025). These observations and evidence lead us to a conjecture: Is there a mutual attraction between mantle plume and subducting plates?

To verify our hypothesis, we use geodynamic modeling to investigate the long-distance interactions between the spatial-dislocated plume and subduction zones. The results show that plate subductions will always try to capture upwelling plumes, even with an evident spatial dislocation. The main insights from the numerical experiments are as follows: (a) Attraction between subducting plate and mantle plume is mainly achieved by the horizontal movement of the upwelling plume, which will result in tilted upwelling channels of them. (b) Interactions between the spatial-dislocated plumes and subduction zones show different patterns depending on whether the plate motions of the subduction plates have evolved. (c) Stronger plume (with greater volume or excess temperature) and faster plate subduction will enhance the interactions between them. And therefore, change their geodynamic processes and responses.

The geodynamic models present fine agreements with the tomography investigations in different subduction zones, which can be used to interpret the morphological characteristics of both the plumes and the slabs. The mechanism revealed by our research suggests a widespread attraction between mantle plumes and subduction plates, which also proposes a possible contributing factor of the spatial distribution for certain hotspots.

 

References

Amaru, M., 2007. Global travel time tomography with 3-D reference models. Doctoral Thesis, Utrecht University.

Fletcher, M., & Wyman, D., 2015. Mantle plume–subduction zone interactions over the past 60 Ma. Lithos, 233:162-173. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lithos.2015.06.026

Lu, C., Grand, S. P., Lai, H., & Garnero, E. J., 2019. TX2019slab: a new P and S tomography model incorporating subducting slabs. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 124: 11549-11567. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB017448

Saki, M., Wirp, S. A., Billen, M., & Thomas, C., 2024. Seismic evidence for possible entrainment of rising plumes by subducting slab induced flow in three subduction zones surrounding the Caribbean Plate. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 352: 107212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2024.107212

Yang, J., Faccenda, M., Chen, L., Wang, X., Shen, H., VanderBeek, B. P., & Zhao, L., 2025. The origin and fate of subslab partial melts at convergent margins. National Science Review, 12: nwaf314. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwaf314

How to cite: Fan, Z., Liao, J., and Wang, Z.: Interactions between spatial-dislocated mantle plumes and subduction plates, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10759, 2026.

EGU26-11741 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.1

Diachronous slab break-off in oppositely-dipping double subduction system: Insights from 3D numerical experiments 

Giridas Maiti, Nevena Andrić-Tomašević, Alexander Koptev, Claudio Faccenna, and Taras Gerya

Diachronous slab break-off around the Adriatic microplate is inferred to occur with contrasting timing and kinematics on its western (Apennine) and eastern (Dinaride–Hellenide) margins. While the Apennines exhibit long-lived slab rollback followed by laterally migrating slab break-off, the eastern margin appears to have experienced earlier continental-collision-related shortening and slab break-off. To investigate the controlling factors on slab break-off and tearing in such a double-sided, oppositely dipping subduction system, we conduct 3D thermo-mechanical numerical experiments in which two subduction zones interact through a shared lower plate. We vary three key parameters: (1) the initial length of the oceanic lithosphere, (2) the initial subduction trench obliquities on each side (symmetric vs. asymmetric), and (3) oceanic plate ages, which collectively control the slab rollback velocity, trench rotation, interacting mantle flow, slab break-off, and tear propagation. In a symmetric reference experiment (with identical initial trench obliquity and oceanic plate length on both sides), closure of the short oceanic segment does not immediately trigger slab break-off. Instead, oceanic subduction evolves into intra-continental subduction, followed by a late-stage slab break-off. In contrast, on the longer oceanic segment, slab rollback drives trench retreat and rotation, causing progressive lateral plate decoupling that propagates along strike, and slab break-off initiates after the retreating trench meets the continent, long before continental collision. Asymmetric experiments (with different initial trench obliquity and oceanic plate length) demonstrate diachronous slab break-off on opposite sides. Here, on the shorter oceanic domain with lower trench obliquity, earlier continental collision and slab break-off occur, whereas on the longer oceanic domain with higher trench obliquity, slab rollback persists for a longer duration, accompanied by pronounced trench rotation, resulting in delayed slab break-off and tear propagation. Overall, our results indicate that (1) oceanic closure alone is not always sufficient to trigger slab break-off, (2) trench rotation linked to obliquity is a key factor controlling delayed slab break-off and tear propagation, and (3) a shorter oceanic domain with lower margin obliquity facilitates earlier continental collision and slab break-off. We propose that the tectonics around the Adriatic microplate can be interpreted as an interactive two-sided asymmetric subduction system in which the western margin evolves through obliquity-driven trench rotation and delayed slab break-off propagation, whereas the eastern margin experiences earlier slab break-off due to continental collision.

How to cite: Maiti, G., Andrić-Tomašević, N., Koptev, A., Faccenna, C., and Gerya, T.: Diachronous slab break-off in oppositely-dipping double subduction system: Insights from 3D numerical experiments, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11741, 2026.

EGU26-12482 | ECS | Orals | GD2.1

Investigating the Role of Fluid–Solid Coupling on Subduction Dynamics and Fluid Pathways 

Daniel Douglas, Frederick LaCombe, Liang Xue, John Naliboff, Juliane Dannberg, and Robert Myhill

Constraining the complex nonlinear feedbacks between patterns of fluid transport and solid deformation in subduction systems remains a key area of research towards understanding subduction zone seismicity, magmatism, and volatile cycling. In this study, we use 2D geodynamic simulations to constrain how distinct physical approximations for reactive volatile transport and fluid-solid coupling affect both long-term subduction dynamics and fluid transport pathways. 

The simulations use the open-source geodynamic software package ASPECT, which provides a framework for modeling coupled nonlinear viscoplastic deformation and reactive fluid transport in combination with a free surface, adaptive mesh refinement, advanced nonlinear solvers, and massive parallel scaling. Fluid–rock interaction follows a previously published parameterization of volatile–rock interaction within subduction systems (Tian et al., 2019), which provides an analytical solution for water partitioning between bound and free water phases across pressure–temperature space for sediment, mid-ocean ridge basalt, gabbro, and peridotite lithologies. We simulate fluid transport as either partially coupled Darcy flow (ignoring compaction terms) or fully coupled two-phase flow following the McKenzie equations (including compaction terms) (McKenzie 1984). In both cases, fluid–solid coupling also occurs through exponential reduction of the solid viscosity as a function of the volume of free-water. Furthermore, we examine the additional fluid-solid coupling through a reduction in the brittle strength of the solid in the presence of free-water and of the solid viscosity as a function of the bound H2O content.

Consistent with previous work, our model results demonstrate that the choice of partially or fully coupled two-phase flow significantly impacts fluid pathways, and that increased fluid–solid coupling leads to increased convergence rates between the subducting and overriding plates. When ignoring compaction terms, the partially coupled Darcy models promote vertical fluid pathways as the slab dehydrates, while including compaction prevents immediate release of the fluid from the subducting plate, promoting updip fluid pathways within the slab before fluids are released into the mantle wedge. Significantly, fluid release into the mantle wedge in the deeper and mechanically strong portions of the slab does not occur until a sufficiently high porosity is reached to locally reduce the solid viscosity and thereby enable the compaction pressure to overcome compaction viscosities. 

Extensive serpentinization of the subducting mantle lithosphere enables the transport of large fluid volumes to beyond the arc. When including the full degree of fluid–solid coupling (including additional brittle and ductile weakening), this large volume of fluid carried to the back-arc promotes sufficient weakening of the overriding plate to drive the dynamic initiation of back-arc spreading. In contrast, reduced degrees of serpentinization inhibit back-arc rifting. We propose that variations in mantle lithosphere hydration provide a fundamental control on the occurrence of back-arc spreading, with less hydrated subducting plates corresponding to subduction zones lacking back-arc extension.

How to cite: Douglas, D., LaCombe, F., Xue, L., Naliboff, J., Dannberg, J., and Myhill, R.: Investigating the Role of Fluid–Solid Coupling on Subduction Dynamics and Fluid Pathways, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12482, 2026.

EGU26-12622 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.1

Testing the link between Panthalassa tectonic evolution and subduction-modified mantle heterogeneity 

Chia Yu Yeh, Jeremy Tsung-Jui Wu, and Eh Tan

Subduction zones provide a structured pathway for the transfer of Earth-surface materials into the mantle, whereby slab dehydration and melting release water-rich components primarily into the mantle wedge, regulating their initial entry into the convecting upper mantle.

Recent studies (e.g., Yang et al., 2021) suggest that the upper mantle can be broadly divided into subduction-modified and subduction-unmodified domains at a global scale. The former is widely distributed in the Indian Ocean and in parts of the Atlantic, reflecting the asthenospheric metasomatism and recycling associated with subducted materials. In contrast, the subduction-unmodified domain is largely restricted to the Pacific basin and shows little evidence for the involvement of subducted components. This contrast highlights the critical role of circum-Pacific region, which has experienced nearly continuous subduction for at least the past 200 Myr, and may have acted as a long-existing “subduction shield”, limiting the dispersal of slab-derived materials into the Pacific mantle, and providing an ideal setting to examine how long-term subduction processes have contributed to upper mantle heterogeneity.  However, whether such large-scale geometry patterns can be reproduced dynamically, and whether it is geodynamically reasonable to classify the upper mantle into subduction-modified and subduction-unmodified domains mantle, remain open questions.

In this study, we employ CitcomS, a finite-element geodynamic code that solves thermo-chemical convection in a spherical shell, to simulate mantle convection and examine the transport of subduction-modified material through the upper mantle, constrained by GPlates-derived plate velocities based on published plate tectonic reconstruction model. Passive tracers are introduced to track material transport over time. By identifying tracers that pass through the mantle wedge, we determine materials acquire subduction signals and evaluate how they are redistributed within the convective mantle.

This analysis provides a quantitative framework for accessing whether the modeled mantle can be conceptually classified into subduction-modified and subduction-unmodified regions, and for investigating how long-term subduction contributes to global upper-mantle heterogeneity. More broadly, our results offer a new perspective for investigating the long-term dynamic evolution of the circum-Pacific subduction system and its role in shaping mantle structure.

How to cite: Yeh, C. Y., Wu, J. T.-J., and Tan, E.: Testing the link between Panthalassa tectonic evolution and subduction-modified mantle heterogeneity, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12622, 2026.

There are three main types of volcanism on Earth: rifting volcanism at diverging plate margins (e.g. mid-ocean ridges), arc volcanism at converging plate margins (e.g. Japan and the Andes), and intraplate volcanism occurring relatively far from plate boundaries. Identifying the source of intraplate volcanism, however, remains one of the most challenging problems in geoscience.

Intra-oceanic volcanoes (e.g. Hawaii) are generally attributed to the ascent of hot and buoyant mantle material (plumes) rising from the core–mantle boundary (CMB). These volcanoes are characterised by frequent eruptions (every few years), a clear age progression (volcanic landforms are older away from the active eruption centre), sub-alkaline tholeiitic magmas, and high 3He/4He ratios, indicating a deep mantle source.

In contrast, intraplate continental volcanoes are more enigmatic. They typically display sporadic eruptions (every few thousand years), no systematic age progression, alkaline and SiO2-undersaturated magmas, and low 3He/4He ratios, which exclude a deep mantle reservoir. Several volcanic provinces in the Mediterranean region exhibit these features.

Among them, a group of provinces located north of the Alps constitutes the European Cenozoic Rift System (ECRiS): (1) Massif Central (France), (2) Eifel (Germany), (3) Eger Rift (Czech Republic), and (4) Pannonian Basin (Hungary). Seismic tomography beneath these regions reveals slow seismic velocity anomalies in the upper mantle, interpreted as warm or partially molten material, overlying fast velocity anomalies in the mantle transition zone (MTZ). These fast anomalies are commonly interpreted as cold, stagnant slabs subducted during the closure of the Tethys Ocean.

Plumes rising from the MTZ differ fundamentally from those originating at the CMB. Their ascent is thought to be driven primarily by the chemical buoyancy of relatively light and possibly volatile-rich material, whereas CMB plumes (e.g. Hawaii and Iceland) are driven by the thermal buoyancy of very hot mantle material (>3000 K). A recent hypothesis proposes that intraplate volcanism within the ECRiS is caused by hydrous plumes generated by flux melting of the subducted Tethyan oceanic crust, now stagnating in the MTZ beneath Europe. This geodynamic setting is referred to as a Big Mantle Wedge (BMW).

How to cite: Marzotto, E.: Unravelling the Origin of European Cenozoic Rift System (ECRiS) Intra-Continental Volcanism, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12955, 2026.

EGU26-13587 | ECS | Orals | GD2.1

Towards a Reconstruction of the Magmatic and Tectonic Evolution of the Demise of the Antarctic Peninsula Subduction Zone 

Katie Lucas, Tiffany Barry, Catherine Greenfield, Teal Riley, Phil Leat, and John Smellie

The Antarctic Peninsula preserves the life cycle of a subduction zone from initiation to demise. The Antarctic-Phoenix subduction zone was active from the Late Jurassic till the initiation of its demise, 53Ma1. This demise was triggered by the collision of the Antarctic-Phoenix spreading ridge with the subduction zone trench, leading to the development of a slab window. This ridge crest-trench interaction occurred segmentally from the southern end of the arc to the northern end. Today three segments of the mid-ocean ridge exist west of the South Shetland Islands, but there is no longer any subduction, leaving a paleo-subduction zone. The progressive shut down and subsequent lack of overprinting or tectonic events, allows an assessment of the stages of collision and slab-window formation, and the impact this has had on the magma generation and volcanism.

Limited work has been conducted on linking the evolution of the volcanism with the evolution of the subduction zone, however, recent efforts have worked to classify different geochemical groups within the subduction volcanism and to assess the spread of geochronological data2,3. From this, it has been possible to highlight some key questions which warrant further data collection and analysis.

This work focusses on the assessment of a potential migration of the volcanic axis trench-wards in response to the approaching mid-ocean ridge. It also works to marry the spatial and temporal assessment with a geochemical analysis. With the aim to observe changes in mantle conditions and magma generation through the evolving geochemistry of the volcanic activity and link it to the changing tectonic setting.

To achieve this, 64 additional major and trace element analysis, and 14 new U-Pb dates have been collected. Which have been applied to a spatial analysis and detailed tectonic/coastal reconstruction. From this a new look at the structure, evolution and impact of subduction demise and slab-window formation within the Antarctic Peninsula can be gleaned.

References:
[1] Smellie, et al. (2021), Geological Society of London, Memoirs, https://doi.org/10.1144/M55-2020-14
[2] Leat and Riley (2021a), Geological Society of London, Memoirs, https://doi.org/10.1144/m55-2018-68
[3] Leat and Riley (2021b), Geological Society of London, Memoirs, https://doi.org/10.1144/m55-2018-52

How to cite: Lucas, K., Barry, T., Greenfield, C., Riley, T., Leat, P., and Smellie, J.: Towards a Reconstruction of the Magmatic and Tectonic Evolution of the Demise of the Antarctic Peninsula Subduction Zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13587, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13587, 2026.

EGU26-14019 | Orals | GD2.1

Geodynamic Modelling of Passive Margin Stability with Grain Damage: Conditions for Subduction Initiation 

Juliane Dannberg, Arushi Saxena, Rene Gassmöller, Menno Fraters, and Ranpeng Li

Subduction initiation remains a key open problem in geodynamics. One hypothesis for the spontaneous initiation of subduction is passive margin collapse triggered by grain damage: a rapid plunge in grain size in the lower parts of the lithosphere leads to strong rheological weakening and the formation of a localised shear zone that facilitates subduction. This mechanism has been proposed and tested in 1D models (Mulyukova & Bercovici, 2018), but has not been incorporated into fully dynamic subduction models because grain-size-dependent rheologies have a high complexity and computational cost. As a result, its viability as a trigger for subduction initiation remains uncertain.

Here we present high-resolution 2-D thermo-mechanical models that test whether grain damage can enable passive margin collapse and subduction initiation. We model the life cycle of an entire oceanic plate from mid-ocean ridge formation to the potential collapse at the passive margin (or stable evolution if no collapse occurs). The lithosphere is represented as a two-phase assemblage of 60% olivine and 40% pyroxene, which are well-mixed at the grain scale. Because grains of each phase impede the growth of the other through Zener pinning, grain growth is suppressed relative to single-phase compositions. This promotes strain localisation due to grain size reduction. Simulating this process requires accurate tracking of the mineral grain size, which is both history-dependent and sensitive to stress changes. Recent advancements in the community code ASPECT, including a higher-order particle method and adaptive time stepping for the grain-size evolution equation via the ARKode solver, now make this feasible.

Our models demonstrate that subduction initiation by grain damage is possible, but only within a narrow range of grain size evolution parameters. Passive margin collapse requires that a large fraction of deformational work in cold lithospheric regions is partitioned into interface damage rather than dissipated as shear heating. Even under these favourable conditions, additional weakening is needed to break the upper ≥15 km of the plate. In our models, we impose a narrow, weak zone to represent this shallow weakening. Elevated stresses in and around the weak zone promote grain damage, producing a grain size plunge and associated viscosity drop at mid- to lower-lithosphere depths. The resulting zone of small grain size propagates downward through the lower lithosphere until a narrow, continuous shear zone forms that enables passive margin collapse. However, the same imposed weak zone does not lead to subduction initiation in otherwise identical models with a fixed grain size.

These results indicate that grain damage alone is unlikely to be the primary trigger for passive margin collapse, but that it can substantially enhance strain localisation and modulate the conditions for subduction initiation when combined with additional weakening mechanisms.

 

References: Mulyukova, E., & Bercovici, D. (2018). Collapse of passive margins by lithospheric damage and plunging grain size. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 484, 341-352.

How to cite: Dannberg, J., Saxena, A., Gassmöller, R., Fraters, M., and Li, R.: Geodynamic Modelling of Passive Margin Stability with Grain Damage: Conditions for Subduction Initiation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14019, 2026.

EGU26-16495 | ECS | Orals | GD2.1

Incompatible trace element transport in phosphorus enriched peridotitic mantle across the upper to lower mantle boundary 

Tristan Pausch, Bastian Joachim-Mrosko, Thomas Ludwig, and Jürgen Konzett

Increasing pressure and temperature causes progressive dehydration of subducted oceanic lithosphere. This process generates incompatible trace element and halogen-enriched fluids that migrate into the mantle wedge, thereby causing metasomatism across a large depth range. Apatite is a common constituent of metasomatic assemblages in mantle wedge peridotites and melange zones, indicating that phosphorus is a significant component of the trace element flux directed into the mantle wedge. During progressive subduction, tuite [γ-Ca3(PO4)2] forms from apatite at depths of ~220-230 km (7-7.5 GPa) and ~250-280 km (8-9 GPa) in basaltic and peridotitic lithologies, respectively, thereby replacing apatite as phosphorus-saturating phase and major carrier of Y+REE, LILE, U and Th. The significance of Ca-phosphates compared to silicates for phosphorus and incompatible trace element storage and transport is expected to evolve with increasing depth and temperature. Upon crossing the upper-to-lower mantle boundary, major phosphorus and/or LREE carriers such as majoritic garnet and ringwoodite disappear, while new competitors for LILE-LREE-HFSE storage, such as davemaoite, the CAS-phase, and K-hollandite emerge (e.g. Hirose et al., 2004; Suzuki et al., 2012). No experimental data are currently available on the distribution of incompatible trace elements in Ca-phosphate-bearing assemblages at P-T conditions covering this depth interval. This study aims to address the gap in our understanding of upper-to-lower mantle trace element fluxes (1) by determining incompatible trace element concentrations in tuite and its coexisting phases within a peridotite bulk composition at pressures straddling the upper-to-lower mantle transition, and (2) by assessing the role of tuite in trace element storage and transport across this boundary. For this purpose, multi anvil experiments were performed at 15 to 25 GPa and 1600 to 2000°C, using a moderately fertile peridotite doped with 3% synthetic β-Ca3(PO4)2, approximately 2200 µg/g Cl and Br, each, and 1% of a trace element mix containing Y+REE along with selected LILE, HFSE and light elements (Li, B, Be) with concentrations in the range 1-230 µg/g.

In metasomatized peridotites, Ca-phosphates are stable only if the bulk phosphorus concentration exceeds the saturation capacity of the coexisting silicate-(oxide) assemblage. In this case, apatite and tuite can be present throughout the upper and in the uppermost lower mantle and constitute principal hosts of REE, LILE, U, and Th in this depth range. Upon entry of peridotite into the lower mantle, the breakdown of Ca-P-bearing majorite leads to the formation of davemaoite and tuite, both phases becoming the dominant incompatible trace element carriers. In the absence of Ca-phosphates, clinopyroxene, majoritic garnet and davemaoite dominate incompatible trace element storage in the upper and uppermost lower mantle.

Hirose, K. et al., (2004) Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 146, 249-260.

Suzuki, T. et al., (2012) Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 208-209, 59-73.

How to cite: Pausch, T., Joachim-Mrosko, B., Ludwig, T., and Konzett, J.: Incompatible trace element transport in phosphorus enriched peridotitic mantle across the upper to lower mantle boundary, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16495, 2026.

EGU26-16907 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.1

Geochemical Evidence for Island Arc Subduction Beneath the New Hebrides Island Arc 

Nils B. Baumann, Karsten M. Haase, Kathrin P. Schneider, Marcel Regelous, and Allan R. Chivas

The tectonic history of the New Hebrides Island Arc (NHIA) is complex and characterized by collisions of oceanic plateaus, subduction interface rotation, as well as fragmentation and ultimately subduction polarity changes. Despite the intricate tecto-magmatic evolution of the NHIA, geochemical data are sparse and the geodynamic processes governing magmatism in the NHIA are poorly understood.

Between 14° and 17° South, along the New Hebrides Trench, collision and subsequent subduction of the d’Entrecasteaux Zone (DEZ) with the NHIA results in various erosional and accretionary processes. The DEZ encompasses the North d’Entrecasteaux Ridge (NDR) and Bougainville Guyot, which represent the immediate interface of the collision zone. In the vicinity of New Caledonia, the DEZ was previously interpreted as a horst-graben system, while the Bougainville Guyot is commonly referred to as part of a southern seamount chain.

Here, we present new geochemical and Sr-Nd-Hf-Pb isotopic data on volcanic rocks from drill sites 831 (Bougainville Guyot), 828 (NDR), 829 (NHIA fore-arc), as well as from the island of Espiritu Santo which formed in the Miocene Melanesian island arc. Drill site and volcanic arc samples differ distinctly in Nd-Hf isotopic records, indicating that fore-arc samples from drill site 829 comprise accreted material from the subducting plate, while the island arc samples exhibit a mantle source consistent with previous arc formation above Indian MORB-like mantle.

In addition, our new data suggest a strong slab-derived fluid influence on the chemical composition of samples from all locations. Relatively radiogenic Sr isotopic records together with negative Nb-Ta anomalies and positive Pb anomalies in samples originating the d’Entrecasteaux Zone, support the model that the DEZ represents a fossil island arc.

We refine the understanding of the tectonic evolution of the NHIA by providing further geochemical constraints on the mantle composition and magma genesis of arc, fore-arc as well as of the subducting DEZ. Isotope and trace element data of the NDR and Bougainville Guyot resemble island arc tholeiites from the Mariana and Kermadec island arcs. Thus, the DEZ probably represents an immature island arc, implying that such magmatically thickened and therefore buoyant structures can be subducted.

How to cite: Baumann, N. B., Haase, K. M., Schneider, K. P., Regelous, M., and Chivas, A. R.: Geochemical Evidence for Island Arc Subduction Beneath the New Hebrides Island Arc, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16907, 2026.

EGU26-17281 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.1

Geochemical and Isotopic Constraints on the Genesis of Granitoids in the Aegean Subduction Zone 

Julian Wolf, Karsten M. Haase, Marcel Regelous, Christina Stouraiti, Michael Bröcker, Esther M. Hars, and Panagiotis C. Voudouris

Granitoid magmas are abundant in subduction zones and form large portions of the upper continental crust. However, the formation of granitoid magmas remains debated, with models proposing (1) evolution from mantle-derived mafic melts by assimilation-fractional crystallization (AFC), (2) partial melting of lower to middle continental crust induced by mafic underplating, and (3) partial melting of metasomatized pyroxenite in the mantle. Since the Oligocene, slab rollback and trench retreat have caused the Aegean subduction zone to migrate approximately 350 km southwestward, resulting in extensive mafic to felsic magmatism with numerous granitoid intrusions in the region. We present new whole-rock major and trace element data together with Sr-Nd-Pb isotope compositions for the 15 to 8 Ma granitoids from Tinos, Mykonos, Naxos, Paros, Lavrion, and Serifos, as well as metasedimentary rocks of the Cycladic Blueschist Unit (CBU) from Tinos, Syros, Andros, and Sifnos. The CBU metamorphic rocks comprise low-grade metamorphic schists, marbles, and high-pressure mélanges and were subducted at the Aegean subduction zone. The metasediments received a high-pressure metamorphic imprint between 55 and 30 Ma. They exhibit element compositions similar to modern Eastern Mediterranean sediments, but many have higher initial 207Pb/204Pb and 208Pb/204Pb than the sediments from the Hellenic Trench. These differences indicate that the composition of subducted sediments changed over time at the Aegean subduction zone. Most granitoids display geochemical signatures characteristic of arc magmas and represent an isotopic end-member of Aegean magmatism in Sr-Nd-Pb isotope space. The isotopic compositions of many granitoids overlap with those of sediments and CBU metasediments, whereas others display distinctly more radiogenic (Pb) signatures. The Cyclades Continental Basement has much higher Sr isotope ratios than the granitoids. Consequently, the isotope composition of the granitoids does not support partial melting of lower continental crustal rocks. Partial melting of metasomatized pyroxenite is unlikely, as most granitoids lie on fractional crystallization trends. The high Th/Nd and low Ce/Pb of the granitoids indicate a fractionation of these elements by accessory minerals during partial melting of the upper crustal rocks. We propose that most granitoid magmas in the Aegean form by fractional crystallization of mafic magmas derived from mantle sources modified by subducted upper continental crustal components. The granitoids require a more radiogenic (Sr and Pb) subducted component than observed in the CBU metasediments or modern sediments, possibly related to the subduction of microcontinental fragments.

How to cite: Wolf, J., Haase, K. M., Regelous, M., Stouraiti, C., Bröcker, M., Hars, E. M., and Voudouris, P. C.: Geochemical and Isotopic Constraints on the Genesis of Granitoids in the Aegean Subduction Zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17281, 2026.

EGU26-19998 | Orals | GD2.1

Subduction segmentation induced by along-strike variations in overriding plate structure 

Ana M. Negredo, Pedro J. Gea, Flor dL. Mancilla, Haoyuan Li, and Magali I. Billen

Subduction zones are inherently three-dimensional systems and exhibit pronounced trench-parallel variability in key observables, including the deformation style of the overriding plate, trench migration rates, slab geometry, and mantle flow patterns. Geodynamic models typically invoke external mantle flow and/or along-strike variations in the properties of the subducting slab to explain this variability, often neglecting the influence of the overriding plate, despite growing evidence of its strong control on subduction dynamics. In this study, we use self-consistent three-dimensional numerical models to explore how along-strike heterogeneities in the overriding plate structure can generate significant variations in subduction dynamics and mantle flow. Our results demonstrate that trench-parallel variations in overriding plate thickness produce large along-strike differences in trench retreat velocities, leading to strongly arcuate trench geometries.

We further conducted a suite of models incorporating a mechanically weak zone in the subducting plate, representing the subduction of a transform fault oriented perpendicular to the trench. These experiments show that along-strike variations in overriding plate thickness can promote vertical slab tearing and segmentation of the subduction system into distinct slab segments. Slab tearing facilitates focused mantle upwelling through the tear, potentially triggering tear-related magmatism during slab rollback. Natural examples of subduction zones characterized by vertical slab tears include the Melanesian subduction system, the South Shetland margin and the Tyrrhenian–Apennines collision system. We propose that the interplay between overriding plate heterogeneity and the subduction of transform faults has been a key factor controlling oroclinal bending and subduction segmentation in the Mediterranean region.

How to cite: Negredo, A. M., Gea, P. J., Mancilla, F. dL., Li, H., and Billen, M. I.: Subduction segmentation induced by along-strike variations in overriding plate structure, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19998, 2026.

EGU26-20466 | ECS | Orals | GD2.1

Massive Mg-rich fluid release across the brucite + serpentine reaction in subduction zones 

Emma Legros, Benjamin Malvoisin, Fabrice Brunet, Zaccaria El Yousfi, Valentina Batanova, Alexander Sobolev, and Anne-Line Auzende

The dehydration of altered oceanic lithosphere is a source of aqueous fluids in subduction zones. Serpentine minerals, hosting ~ 13 wt.% H2O, are one of the main water carriers of the hydrated oceanic mantle. Antigorite, the stable serpentine mineral in deep subduction conditions, breaks down at temperature above 600 °C (Atg-out reaction), releasing free aqueous fluid. Compilation of bulk compositions of oceanic and exhumed subduction-collision zones serpentinites from the literature indicates that brucite (Brc) should also be an important hydrous (30 wt.% H2O) component of the oceanic lithosphere. Thermodynamic modeling with an updated thermochemical database shows that the Brc + Atg = Ol + H2O reaction (Atg-Brc reaction) occurs at lower temperature and can even produce more fluid than the Atg-out reaction. Moreover, the Atg-Brc reaction occurs in a narrow temperature range (< 10 °C), implying relatively high dehydration rates in the slab. Furthermore, the released aqueous fluid is calculated to be highly magnesian (> 1 mol/kg) with MgOaq as the dominant aqueous species. We studied the products of the Atg-Brc reaction in Zermatt-Saas (Swiss Alps) and Mont Avic (Italian Alps) meta-ophiolites, involved in the Alpine subduction. The development of metamorphic olivine and Ti-clinohumite veins within metamorphic serpentinites crosscut by pure magnesian brucite (Mg# > 99) indicates strong magnesian segregation, in agreement with thermodynamic modeling. From the size of the segregation, it is estimated that a Mg-rich fluid interacted with the host rock for around a hundred years before being drained. Finally, based on the idea that dehydration reactions can trigger seismicity in subduction zones, we located in a PT diagram the Low-Frequency Earthquakes (LFE) recorded in present-day subduction zones (Mexican, Nankai and Cascadia). The conditions under which these LFE are generated coincide with the PT conditions of the Atg-Brc dehydration reaction, supporting its central role as a main source of aqueous fluid in subduction zones.

How to cite: Legros, E., Malvoisin, B., Brunet, F., El Yousfi, Z., Batanova, V., Sobolev, A., and Auzende, A.-L.: Massive Mg-rich fluid release across the brucite + serpentine reaction in subduction zones, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20466, 2026.

EGU26-21443 | Orals | GD2.1

Slab Tearing, Fluid Pathways, and Seismic Segmentation in the Hellenic–Aegean Subduction Zone Revealed by Receiver Functions and OBS Tomography 

Maria Sachpazi, Mireille Laigle, Vasileios Kapetanidis, Jordi Diaz, Alexandrine Gerset, Audrey Galve, Marinos Charalampakis, and Edi Kissling

The Hellenic–Aegean subduction zone is a key natural laboratory for studying convergent margin dynamics, with well-documented surface deformation, upper-crustal geology, and deep mantle processes such as slab rollback. The architecture of the subduction system at intermediate depths (∼50–150 km), however, still remains insufficiently resolved.

Using receiver-function analyses from a dense seismic network deployed across the Peloponnesus and central Greece within the EU-funded THALES WAS RIGHT project, we have resolved the three-dimensional geometry of the subducting slab Moho in unprecedented detail. These studies revealed a systematic segmentation of the Ionian oceanic lithosphere by nine trench-normal, subvertical fault zones that remain seismically active at intermediate depths beneath the entire Peloponnesus and the marine forearc domain. This fault-controlled architecture provided compelling evidence for slab tearing and highlights the role of internal slab deformation. Clustered seismicity in the mantle wedge above the tear faults suggests their potential role as pathways for fluid migration.

These slab faults appear to influence seismicity up to the forearc backstop. New results from ocean-bottom seismometer local tomography in the forearc domain further illuminate upper plate structural segmentation. We image a strongly imbricated upper-crustal wedge composed of blocks with contrasted P-wave velocities overlying the megathrust down to ~30 km depth. These blocks likely correspond to accreted terranes previously inferred from geological reconstructions but never imaged seismically. Beyond their geodynamic significance, this segmentation may modulate megathrust slip behaviour, as illustrated by our study of the Methoni earthquake. We propose that in the southwestern Hellenic subduction zone, megathrust rupture propagation is limited by the combined effects of small-scale upper-plate discontinuities and larger-scale lower-plate segmentation associated with slab tearing.

Complementary receiver-function results reveal a low-velocity layer -over 200km wide- located within the mantle wedge, below the shallow Aegean Moho and above the slab top at depths of ~50–70 km. Owing to the dense 2-D profile coverage, we resolve that this layer is segmented into distinct panels that closely mirror the along-strike segmentation of the retreating slab. This layer may represent inherited underplated material accreted during earlier subduction episodes, in a process analogous to the accretion of the Hellenic tectonostratigraphic terranes. Our observation of slab-parallel segmentation provides a key constraint on mantle wedge rheology, implying that slab faulting not only governs slab dynamics, associated upper plate deformation and fluid flow pathways but also structurally organizes the mantle wedge. Future finer scale imaging derived from multiscale analysis methods and synthetic modelling are planned to better constrain the nature of this layer and its role in fluid transfer and mantle wedge seismicity.

How to cite: Sachpazi, M., Laigle, M., Kapetanidis, V., Diaz, J., Gerset, A., Galve, A., Charalampakis, M., and Kissling, E.: Slab Tearing, Fluid Pathways, and Seismic Segmentation in the Hellenic–Aegean Subduction Zone Revealed by Receiver Functions and OBS Tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21443, 2026.

The increase in space geodetic measurements for examining plate motion in the past three decades has significantly advanced our understanding of complex deformation processes in subduction zones throughout the earthquake cycle. We now recognize a spectrum of seismic and aseismic behaviors, including slow slip events, non-volcanic tremor, low-frequency earthquakes, fault creep, episodic tremor and slip (ETS), postseismic afterslip, and viscoelastic mantle flow transients. Notably, Materna et al. (2019) observed dynamically triggered increases and decreases in plate coupling associated with nearby earthquakes in southern Cascadia. We have reproduced and extended these findings using an improved semi-automated detection method, which reveals additional examples of time-dependent coupling changes in the region. 

This study applies our method to the Chilean subduction zone to investigate similar temporal variability in plate coupling changes. In southern Chile, Klein et al. (2016) and Melnick et al. (2017) documented GNSS velocity increases near the boundaries of the unruptured segments following the 2010 Maule earthquake. GNSS rates south of 21°S accelerate up to 10 mm/year in the second year following the 2014 Iquique earthquake, potentially reflecting a coupling increase (Hoffmann et al., 2018). Additionally, Luo et al. (2020) reported a systematic decrease in seaward velocities from 2010–2019 across the southern half of the great 1960 Valdivia rupture zone. Our ongoing work seeks to detect and characterize such abrupt GNSS velocity changes in Chile using our semi-automated approach and to better understand the underlying physical mechanisms. In particular, we aim to constrain the recently identified phenomenon of dynamically triggered coupling changes, with implications for earthquake cycle models and seismic hazard assessment across global subduction zones.

How to cite: Roy, A. and Jackson, N. M.: The Search for Time-Dependent Coupling Changes on the Plate Interface following the Great Earthquakes of Chile, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-866, 2026.

EGU26-1489 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.4

A dense focal mechanisms catalogue for the Atacama segment in Chile (24◦S - 31◦S) using deep learning polarity picking 

Tatiana Kartseva, Jannes Münchmeyer, Blandine Gardonio, Agnès Helmstetter, David Marsan, and Anne Socquet

The Atacama segment in Northern Chile, a persistent seismic gap since 1922, represents a complex and highly active subduction zone. The region’s seismicity spans a broad magnitude range (M -0.8 to 6.2) and encompasses diverse sources including intraslab, interface, upper-mantle, and outer-rise events. While a dense earthquake catalog exists, systematic information on focal mechanisms has remained sparse, limiting detailed understanding of stress distribution and seismotectonic processes.

Here, we construct a comprehensive focal mechanism catalog for the Atacama seismic gap using P-wave polarity inversions implemented via the SKHASH algorithm based on a grid-search of nodal planes. First-motion polarities were automatically picked using a CNN model trained on 3 millions human-picked examples from diverse tectonic settings to improve cross-regional transferability. Rigorous quality selection was applied, accounting for signal-to-noise ratio, azimuthal coverage and minimum allowed number of polarities, ensuring robust mechanism determination. Under current network configuration and resolution constraints, around ~30% of the catalog (initially counting ~166 000 events) can be resolved. 

The resulting catalog provides a detailed statistical overview of mechanisms across different seismic classes and magnitudes. Particular attention is given to markers of slab stress state - along-dip compressions and tensions, its distribution across the double plane seismicity zone, and to mechanisms of upper-plate seismicity, which may reflect fluid transfer and crustal heterogeneities. 

How to cite: Kartseva, T., Münchmeyer, J., Gardonio, B., Helmstetter, A., Marsan, D., and Socquet, A.: A dense focal mechanisms catalogue for the Atacama segment in Chile (24◦S - 31◦S) using deep learning polarity picking, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1489, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1489, 2026.

EGU26-1674 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.4

Detrital zircon mixing and sediment-routing partitioning from rivers to coastal and canyon–fan systems along the Colombian Caribbean margin 

Estefany Villanueva-García, Yamirka Rojas-Agramonte, Daniel Rincón-Martínez, Óscar Álvarez-Silva, Delia Rösel, Andres Mora, and Christian Winter

The tectonically active northern Colombian Caribbean margin, where the Magdalena Canyons System (MCS) lies adjacent to the structurally confined La Aguja Canyon (LAC), provides an exceptional natural laboratory to investigate sediment mixing and the partitioning of transport pathways between coastal and deep-marine environments. Here, we integrate new detrital zircon U–Pb geochronology from 18 coastal and offshore samples (~1,900 grains) with published river and coastal datasets to assess how provenance signals are transferred from onshore sources through submarine canyon systems into offshore depocenters. Detrital zircon ages span from <1 Ma to ~2700 Ma.

Our dataset includes 10 offshore samples distributed across the MCS, LAC, and distal sectors of the Magdalena Submarine Fan, together with 8 newly analyzed coastal samples. The coastal samples capture sediment supplied by two contrasting source regions: the Magdalena River, which delivers the largest sediment load to the Caribbean and carries a characteristically multimodal Andean-derived zircon signature, and rivers draining the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta (SNSM), which provide a lower sediment flux but a compositionally distinct crystalline signal directly to the coast. All samples were analyzed using detrital zircon U–Pb geochronology (LA-ICP-MS), complemented by grain-size analysis, cathodoluminescence imaging, and bulk mineralogical characterization by X-ray diffraction. Detrital zircon U–Pb age distributions were evaluated using kernel density estimates, multidimensional scaling, and inverse mixing models.

River and coastal datasets define two robust provenance end members. Sediments associated with the Magdalena River exhibit a multimodal Andean-derived age spectrum characterized by Neogene–Quaternary (<8 Ma), Jurassic–Cretaceous (~75–180 Ma), and Neoproterozoic (~990 Ma) populations. In contrast, sediments sourced from the SNSM display a narrower Paleogene–Jurassic–Proterozoic spectrum, with prominent peaks at ~50 Ma, ~180 Ma, and ~990 Ma. Offshore samples reflect this partitioning across distinct canyon domains: MCS samples retain the multimodal Magdalena signature, whereas LAC samples preserve the restricted SNSM signal. Distal fan samples integrate both age populations, delineating a downslope mixing zone where sediment contributions from both canyon systems may converge. Statistical analyses consistently support this sediment-routing partitioning, indicating dominant Magdalena-derived input to the MCS and distal fan, and a strongly confined SNSM signal within the LAC with limited distal transfer.

These results demonstrate that sediment routing along the northern Colombian Caribbean margin is strongly partitioned between adjacent submarine canyon systems, yet becomes progressively integrated downslope within the Magdalena Submarine Fan. While Magdalena-derived sediments are routed through the MCS and SNSM-derived material remains largely confined within the LAC at proximal and canyon scales, their provenance signals converge and mix within distal fan depocenters. This transition from canyon-scale partitioning to fan-scale mixing, controlled by tectonic confinement, source-area configuration, and canyon morphology, illustrates how sediment-routing systems operate in tectonically complex, actively deforming continental margins worldwide.

Keywords: detrital zircon U-Pb geochronology, source-to-sink systems, submarine canyons, marine sediment provenance, Caribbean margin

How to cite: Villanueva-García, E., Rojas-Agramonte, Y., Rincón-Martínez, D., Álvarez-Silva, Ó., Rösel, D., Mora, A., and Winter, C.: Detrital zircon mixing and sediment-routing partitioning from rivers to coastal and canyon–fan systems along the Colombian Caribbean margin, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1674, 2026.

EGU26-5379 | ECS | Orals | GD2.4

Active tectonics of Central Andes from GNSS and InSAR time series 

Bertrand Lovery, Mohamed Chlieh, Mathilde Radiguet, Marie-Pierre Doin, Juan Carlos Villegas-Lanza, Laurence Audin, Caroline Chalumeau, Edmundo Norabuena, Hernando Tavera, Philippe Durand, and Anne Socquet

The Central Andes are a place of considerable interest for the study of the physical processes involved in subduction. Indeed, it hosts significant seismic events relatively frequently, with four earthquakes of magnitude greater than eight in the last three decades: the 1995 Mw8.0 Antofagasta, the 2001 Mw8.4 Arequipa, the 2007 Mw8.0 Pisco, and the 2014 Mw8.1 Iquique earthquakes. In addition, structural heterogeneities, such as the Nazca and Perdida oceanic ridges, appear to segment seismic ruptures along the Peru-Chile trench. Estimating the seismogenic potential of the Central Andes, particularly in Southern Peru, where the amount of geodetic data available has increased considerably in recent years, is therefore a key issue.

Using 200+ GNSS sites, and InSAR mean velocity maps (2015-2021) processed in the framework of the FLATSIM Andes project (FormaTerre, 2020), we measured the deformation of the overriding plate on the horizontal and vertical components. In order to model interseismic and postseismic processes with a realistic structure and rheology, we developed a finite element method model of the subduction, featuring Newtonian viscoelastic Burgers rheology in the asthenosphere and an elastic cold nose. Accounting for the postseismic displacements associated with great subduction earthquakes, we propose a viscoelastic interseismic coupling model with unprecedented resolution in the area. This model shows significant heterogeneity, with high coupling off the coast of South Peru and Chile, and weaker coupling where oceanic structures, notably the Nazca Ridge and the Nazca Fracture Zone, subduct beneath the South American continent.

The spatial resolution provided by InSAR, notably on the vertical component, is of great interest to investigate the partitioning of the deformation in the upper plate, which is a fundamental aspect in the perspective of a unified interseismic coupling model at the scale of Peru and Chile. For this purpose, we quantified the East and vertical displacements across the Cuzco fault system (up to 3 mm/yr and 2 mm/yr on the East and vertical components respectively) and the Cordillera Blanca (up to 1.5 mm/yr and 3 mm/yr on the East and vertical components respectively), which have been proposed by Villegas-Lanza et al., 2016 to delimitate a rigid block motion referred as the Peruvian Sliver. In addition to this partitioning at crustal structures, primary (3-4 mm/yr) and secondary (2 mm/yr) zones of uplift are observed in Peru and Chile, at about 130 and 250 km from the trench, respectively. The secondary zone of uplift is associated with high topography, suggesting partial interseismic plastic deformation of the upper plate. Also, the secondary uplift zone in Peru is primarily observed in the flat-slab region and tapers with the transition to dipping-slab. Both the primary and secondary uplift zones are collocated with trench-parallel stripes of intraslab seismicity, which could be linked to fluid migration processes or fracturing of the slab.

How to cite: Lovery, B., Chlieh, M., Radiguet, M., Doin, M.-P., Villegas-Lanza, J. C., Audin, L., Chalumeau, C., Norabuena, E., Tavera, H., Durand, P., and Socquet, A.: Active tectonics of Central Andes from GNSS and InSAR time series, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5379, 2026.

EGU26-5993 | Orals | GD2.4 | Highlight

Subduction zone obliquity and rheology dictate global trench-parallel inner forearc deformation 

Kristin Morell, Theron Finley, and Andrew Newman

Subduction zones are defined by plate convergence, yet their upper plates exhibit a wide range of deformation styles globally. While various hypotheses have been proposed to explain this global variability, the controlling factors remain poorly understood. We analyzed ~24,000 km of active global subduction zones to investigate how subduction obliquity influences trench-parallel and horizontal deformation in the terrestrial inner forearc overriding plate. Using global datasets of GNSS velocities and active fault catalogs, we examined inner deformation across 13 forearcs on both short (decadal) timescales, captured by GNSS, and long (millennial to million-year) timescales, inferred from trench-parallel active strike-slip faults. Our results reveal a strong link between subduction zone obliquity and both the sense and magnitude of upper plate rotation observed in GNSS data, as well as the sense and rate of deformation along trench-parallel strike-slip faults. Unlike earlier studies suggesting that obliquity influences deformation only above a certain threshold, we find that even low to moderate obliquity affects forearc behavior. High-obliquity margins, such as New Zealand and the Philippines, show the highest GNSS-derived vorticity and cumulative slip rates on trench-parallel strike-slip faults. In contrast, lower-obliquity regions, like portions of Cascadia and Peru, exhibit reduced vorticity and either diffuse strike-slip faulting or broadly distributed deformation. Across all forearcs, we find strong correlations between obliquity and both GNSS vorticity and trench-parallel fault slip rates in the inner forearc.

Beyond controlling the magnitude and sense of inner forearc deformation, our results suggest that rheologic factors also influence how trench-parallel shear is accommodated within the inner forearc. We observe a continuum of trench-parallel strike-slip deformation styles within the inner forearc, ranging from motion accommodated on a single, through-going sliver fault with high slip rates to more distributed deformation expressed across multiple shorter strike-slip faults with lower slip rates. Emerging results suggest that this variability is linked to the distance between the down-dip extent of megathrust locking and the volcanic arc. Subduction segments with a short trench-to–locked-zone distance preferentially develop coherent sliver faulting, whereas those with a greater distance between the down-dip locking limit and the arc tend to exhibit more distributed strike-slip deformation across the forearc. We interpret this pattern to reflect a rheological control on how trench-parallel shear is accommodated. If shear strain is concentrated near the down-dip edge of locking, as predicted by simple elastic models, deformation localizes above this region. Where this localization occurs within or near the arc, conditions favor development of a single, through-going strike-slip fault. In contrast, when the locus of strain concentration lies farther trenchward within the forearc, deformation is more likely to be partitioned across pre-existing structures, resulting in distributed strike-slip faulting. These results suggest that while subduction obliquity exerts a first-order control on the sense and magnitude of inner forearc deformation, additional geometric and rheologic factors govern the style of trench-parallel inner forearc strain accommodation.

How to cite: Morell, K., Finley, T., and Newman, A.: Subduction zone obliquity and rheology dictate global trench-parallel inner forearc deformation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5993, 2026.

EGU26-6298 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.4

Dynamics of slab-plume interaction in Central America 

Jian Wang, Lijun Liu, Zebin Cao, and Hao Dong

Subducting slabs and mantle plumes are two end-member mechanisms for driving vertical flow inside the Earth. However, their mutual interactions remain underexplored. One example is the potential interaction between the Galápagos plume and the Cocos slab in Central America. This region hosts many abnormal tectonic features, such as dramatic along-trench variations in heat flow and surface topography, which may represent surface responses to the interacting Cocos slab and Galápagos plume at depth. The slab is found to be torn in tomographic studies and may provide a channel for plume material to travel from the Pacific to the Caribbean mantle. We design 3D finite-element subduction models using the code CitcomS to study the plausible geodynamic processes. In our initial experiments, we find that the evolution of the subducting Cocos slab is strongly influenced by far-field forces associated with the ancient Farallon slab. As the Farallon slab below the eastern Caribbean continues to sink, the increasing lateral pressure gradient across the Cocos trench induces repeated episodes of slab tearing and renewed subduction of the Cocos slab. This process ultimately leads to the formation of an imbricate slab geometry, consistent with structures observed in seismic tomography. After incorporating the Galápagos plume into our model, hot plume material ascends through the tear in the Cocos slab and enters the Central American mantle wedge. The resulting present-day distribution of plume material shows a strong spatial correlation with regions of elevated heat flow and high topography in Central America. These results suggest that that slab–plume interaction dynamically enhances surface heat flow and contributes to regional topographic uplift. Our study provides new insights into slab–mantle dynamics in other subduction systems around the Pacific where nearby hotspots are present.

 

How to cite: Wang, J., Liu, L., Cao, Z., and Dong, H.: Dynamics of slab-plume interaction in Central America, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6298, 2026.

EGU26-6387 | Posters on site | GD2.4

Thermal Segmentation, Interplate Coupling Variability, and Fluid Circulation in the Ecuadorian Subduction Zone  

Frederique Rolandone, Boris Marcaillou, Jeffrey Poort, François Michaud, and Jean-Noël Proust

In the Ecuadorian subduction zone, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements indicate significant spatial variations in the interseismic coupling of the interplate contact, along with diverse seismic and aseismic slip behaviors. These variations are likely linked to local differences in the thermo-mechanical properties of the Ecuadorian margin. The thermal and rheological characteristics of the subducting Nazca plate depend on multiple factors, including lithology, sediment thickness, fracturing degree, structural heterogeneities, frictional properties, and fluid circulation. Surface heat flow variations provide indirect insights into some of these deep-seated features. Heat flow profiles derived from "Bottom Simulating Reflectors" (BSRs) reveal a clear north-south thermal segmentation of the Ecuadorian margin. These profiles consistently show a decrease in heat flow on the accretionary prism with increasing distance from the deformation front, stabilizing at approximately ~40 mW.m−2 along the upper slope. However, heat flow values at the deformation front display significant heterogeneity, ranging from ~60 mW.m−2 to ~160 mW.m−2. During the SUPER-MOUV campaign, 18 heat flow measurements were collected to address the following objectives: 1- To evaluate the reliability of heat flow estimations derived from BSRs in Ecuador by conducting direct measurements at the margin front, allowing for a comparison between in-situ data and BSR-derived values. 2- To measure heat flow within the trench, a region where BSRs are absent. 3- To assess heat flow on the Nazca plate before subduction, an area also lacking BSRs, for which no heat flow data exist within 200 km of the deformation front, and for which numerous seamounts, potential sites of fluid circulation, have been identified near the Ecuadorian margin.

How to cite: Rolandone, F., Marcaillou, B., Poort, J., Michaud, F., and Proust, J.-N.: Thermal Segmentation, Interplate Coupling Variability, and Fluid Circulation in the Ecuadorian Subduction Zone , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6387, 2026.

EGU26-7483 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.4

3D P-wave velocity structure of the Northern Ecuadorian seismogenic zone, host to the 2016 M7.8 Pedernales earthquake. 

Arnaud Delsuc, Audrey Galvé, Mireille Laigle, Janis Heuel, Michael Frietsch, and Andreas Rietbrock

In Ecuador, in the vicinity of the seismic rupture of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales earthquake, the megathrust fault is also affected by aseismic slip at shallow depths, including slow earthquakes and post-seismic slow slip. 

The Ecuadorian margin is an exceptional natural laboratory. Its relatively narrow marine forearc and shallow megathrust make it an ideal location for studying the relationship between ongoing subduction of topographic highs, such as ridge and seamount, and seismic and aseismic slip behaviour on the plate interface.

The HIPER Project (2020–2022), which aims to better characterize the 3D structure of the Ecuadorian forearc domain, is based on an international collaboration funded by the French Oceanographic Fleet, the French ANR, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT, Germany), American NSF and IG-EPN (Ecuador). We successfully deployed a large number of OBSs (47), land stations (~200) and nodes (~500) to record both R/V L’Atalante shots and seismic activity.

Here, we present preliminary results from a 3D inversion of P-wave refraction and reflection data, which was performed with TOMO3D. Thanks to our newly developed semi-automatic picking tool, DeepFB, we were able to efficiently compile the catalogue of ~230,000 picks.. DeepFB is a U-Net based neural network designed for robust automatic first-break picking in active-source seismic data. It was extensively applied to our dataset and accounts for approximately 50% of the picked first arrivals. The resulting 3D P-wave velocity model provides new insights into the lateral velocity variations of the Ecuadorian margin and the subducting plate along the trench between latitudes 1°25′N and 0°10′S.

How to cite: Delsuc, A., Galvé, A., Laigle, M., Heuel, J., Frietsch, M., and Rietbrock, A.: 3D P-wave velocity structure of the Northern Ecuadorian seismogenic zone, host to the 2016 M7.8 Pedernales earthquake., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7483, 2026.

EGU26-8350 | Posters on site | GD2.4

The MUSICA Seismic Deployment: Illuminating subduction complexities at the northern end of the South American Cordillera 

Lara Wagner, Gaspar Monsalve, Christopher Carchedi, and David Avellaneda-Jiménez

The northern end of the South American convergent margin is influenced by the interplay between the Nazca, South American, and Caribbean plates. The relatively recently (Miocene) accretion of the Panama arc along the western margin of northernmost South America adds further uncertainty to an already complex tectonic region. Of note is the offset in the Wadati Benioff Zone (WBZ) at ~5.5° N, often referred to as the “Caldas Tear”. The shallowest (50-60 km depth) reach of the northern WBZ lies over 400 km from the nearest plate boundary, an observation that requires one or more subducting slabs to be horizontally emplaced (a.k.a. “flat slab”). But which plate (or plates) comprises this northern WBZ? We know that both the Caribbean and Nazca plates are subducting, but the spatial extent of each plate and their resultant interactions remain unclear. To address these (and many other questions) about this complex region, we installed a temporary array of 66 broadband seismometers straddling the Caldas Tear north-to-south and extending across both WBZs east-to-west as part of the NSF-funded Modeling, Uplift, Seismology, and Igneous geochemistry in the Colombian Andes (MUSICA) project. This deployment was installed in phases from July 2022 to July 2023. The full array was in place from July 2023 until June 2025. Preliminary results of our novel dataset indicate the presence of complex crustal and slab structures, as well as indications of the mantle’s response to the multiple downgoing slabs. Here we present information about our deployment (including the use of direct burial seismometers and Carnegie Quick-Deploy Boxes), as well as early insights from preliminary results.

How to cite: Wagner, L., Monsalve, G., Carchedi, C., and Avellaneda-Jiménez, D.: The MUSICA Seismic Deployment: Illuminating subduction complexities at the northern end of the South American Cordillera, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8350, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8350, 2026.

EGU26-9352 | ECS | Orals | GD2.4

Influence of ridge subduction on seismicity in South Peru 

Caroline Chalumeau, Hugo Sanchez Reyes, Jannes Münchmeyer, Mickael Langlais, Juan Carlos Villegas Lanza, Alex Gonzales, Edmundo Norabuena, Hernando Tavera, and Anne Socquet

The South Peru subduction zone is a complex, highly active region, where the flat slab associated with the Nazca Ridge subduction in the North transitions to a much steeper subduction in the South. This transition not only causes the slab to contort, but affects seismicity patterns in the region. Here we use data from 26 seismic stations active from March 2022 to December 2024 as part of the DEEPTrigger project, along with 16 permanent Peruvian stations and 15 permanent Chilean stations, to create a 3-year seismicity catalogue of South Peru. Using PhaseNet for phase picking and PyOcto for phase association, we obtain a total of 166 971 events. These earthquakes are located with NonLinLoc-SSST using a new 3-D P and S-wave velocity model of the region obtained from full-waveform inversion (Kan et al., 2025), then relocated using double difference methods with cross-correlation times to obtain precise locations. We thus obtain the first dense and precisely-located earthquake catalog of the region.

With this new catalog, we are able to demonstrate the influence of the Nazca Ridge on seismicity patterns. We find numerous shallow seismic swarms where the ridge enters subduction, while they are absent from the rest of the margin. In combination with GPS records of nearby stations, they hint at the likely presence of slow slip. We also find that the edge of the Nazca Ridge is particularly active, down to depths below 80 km. This same edge was activated by the Mw 7.2 Acari earthquake which occurred on June 28th 2024 at the plate interface, and was preceded by a Mw 6.0 intraslab foreshock on June 16th 2024. The Acari mainshock triggered a large aftershock expansion towards the northwest where the Nazca Ridge subducts, and a triggered swarm and possible SSE in that region. It also caused an increase of intraplate seismicity directly downdip along the Nazca Ridge edge, demonstrating the ridge’s ability to concentrate stress. 

How to cite: Chalumeau, C., Sanchez Reyes, H., Münchmeyer, J., Langlais, M., Villegas Lanza, J. C., Gonzales, A., Norabuena, E., Tavera, H., and Socquet, A.: Influence of ridge subduction on seismicity in South Peru, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9352, 2026.

EGU26-10298 | Posters on site | GD2.4

Impact of seamount subduction on margin fluid dynamics: distribution, seafloor emissions, and upwards migration pathways at the northern Ecuador continental shelf (SUPER-MOUV cruise, 2024) 

François Michaud, Mireille Laigle, Maria Fernanda Ramirez Parrales, Jean-Yves Collot, Alexandre Caplette, Audrey Galvé, Laure Schenini, Jean Frederic Lebrun, Clara Lebourgois, Boris Marcaillou, Gueorgui Ratzov, Cédric Boulart, Laura Noël, Aurélien Gay, and Jean Noel Proust

Fluid circulation along active margins represents a key geological process that influences geochemical cycles, sedimentary dynamics and the occurrence of seismic activity and associated natural hazards. The SUPER-MOUV oceanographic cruise (January–February 2024) aimed to investigate seafloor manifestations of these fluid circulations and their relationship with seismic activity along the active margin of northern Ecuador. Multibeam data (bathymetry), water column data (seismic profiles and bathymetry), high-resolution seismic profiles, and in-situ observations from the Nautile submersible were combined to complement data from the HIPER cruises (bathymetry, deep seismic imaging) and a dense grid of industrial seismic profiles. This dataset allows us to reveal seabed fluid manifestations in areas where topographic irregularities, such as seamounts, subduct and create preferential pathways for fluid migration within the upper plate. At approximately latitude ~0°15’N latitude, the subduction of the Atacames seamounts oceanic topography carried by the Nazca plate correlates spatially with extensive seabed fields of carbonate mounds (up to 300 meters long and 15 meters high) build on the continental shelf, the majority of which is associated with active fluid emissions in the water column. Samples collected by the Nautile submersible reveal that these concretions incorporate centimetric clasts containing Eocene foraminifers. This finding suggests a vigorous, “mud-volcano-type” fluid circulation event, which was capable of transporting clasts from the earliest sedimentary deposits resting on the oceanic basement of the Ecuadorian forearc basins, to the seabed surface. Seismic profiles interpretation, including seismic attribute analysis, enabled the characterization of fluid accumulations at depths and highlight their circulation pathways associated with faults, fractures, diapirs and litho-stratigraphic discontinuities. Notably, some diapiric structures, located directly beneath seabed fluid emissions, root as deep as 3 seconds two-way travel time (TWT) into a highly fractured acoustic basement, consistent with the presence of Eocene clasts on the seafloor and suggests the existence of a potentially deeper fluid source.

How to cite: Michaud, F., Laigle, M., Ramirez Parrales, M. F., Collot, J.-Y., Caplette, A., Galvé, A., Schenini, L., Lebrun, J. F., Lebourgois, C., Marcaillou, B., Ratzov, G., Boulart, C., Noël, L., Gay, A., and Proust, J. N.: Impact of seamount subduction on margin fluid dynamics: distribution, seafloor emissions, and upwards migration pathways at the northern Ecuador continental shelf (SUPER-MOUV cruise, 2024), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10298, 2026.

EGU26-11901 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.4

Variable detachment strength along the Peruvian margin estimated from Critical Taper Analysis 

Florian Kusche and Nina Kukowski

Along the Peruvian margin, the subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the South American Plate shows significant along-strike variability, including changes in slab dip and the subduction of major bathymetric features such as the Nazca Ridge and several fault zones. Seismic behavior along the Peruvian margin is likewise highly variable, ranging from frequent large megathrust earthquakes in southern Peru to comparably low seismicity in the north, where tsunami earthquakes have nevertheless caused significant historical damage.

To investigate the mechanical strength of the Peruvian forearc, we perform an areal critical taper analysis based on gridded surface slope and slab dip data. The results reveal significant spatial variations in detachment strength along the margin. South of the Nazca Ridge (~15°S), the forearc is characterized by a relatively strong detachment. The central segment (15°S–10°S) shows moderate to weak detachment strength, with particularly weak conditions near the trench. In northern Peru (10°S–4°S), the detachment is generally weak across the entire forearc. Overall, detachment strength tends to decrease toward the trench, except in the region affected by the subducting Nazca Ridge, where an increase in strength is observed.

The long-time-scale spatial variability in detachment strength correlates fairly well with interseismic coupling patterns derived from short-time-scale geodetic observations, with locked portions of the subduction interface generally characterized by higher detachment strength. In our study, we address the question of whether and how short-term seismic behavior is controlled by the long-term mechanical properties of the Peruvian forearc.

How to cite: Kusche, F. and Kukowski, N.: Variable detachment strength along the Peruvian margin estimated from Critical Taper Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11901, 2026.

EGU26-12561 | ECS | Orals | GD2.4

Revisiting force balance on subduction zones: the missing bridge to numerical simulations 

Jorge Sanhueza and Samuel Angiboust

Subduction zone geodynamics have been a primary area of focus since the early days of plate tectonics theory. Initial approaches using analytical solutions sought to understand the fundamental driving forces, moment balances, and energetics governing oceanic plate subduction. Despite the limitations of scarce geophysical imaging, limited geological sampling, and emerging numerical techniques, these studies provided the foundations of modern geodynamics. As numerical techniques improved, power-law rheologies and complex geological processes were integrated into various codes. These provided more realistic simulations to understand a wide variety of regions on Earth, but they are rarely presented in the context of classical physical approaches. Nowadays, a unique opportunity exists to revisit these classical frameworks, aided by improved subducting slab imaging, an excellent geological record, and a deeper understanding of slab dynamics across active and ancient subduction zones.

In this work, a simplified but physically transparent framework is developed to revisit the force/moment balance, energetic conditions, and dissipation analyses governing slab dynamics. For this purpose, three representative slab geometries (steep, normal, and flat) were selected based on their dip below 40 km depth, where slab behavior is dominated by internal negative buoyancy and viscous lifting forces from the mantle. Slab pull was estimated by varying density contrasts and thickness, while viscous forces were derived from semi-analytical Stokes flow solutions to resolve pressure distributions along the slab surface. Gravitational potential energy changes were calculated to test whether internal density variations (e.g., eclogitization) and crustal thickening from oceanic plateaus drive changes in geometry.

Results show that mantle wedge suction can counteract slab weight in a flat subduction setting, while increased density from eclogitization destabilizes flat slabs and promotes steepening, linking moment balance and buoyancy to the global diversity of slab dips. Total energy dissipation is mainly controlled by mantle wedge flow, with low-angle and flat subduction representing the most dissipative configurations. Once moment balance allows, these tend to evolve toward steeper, more energetically stable states. Slab flattening occurs with increased buoyancy, higher convergence velocities, and greater mantle viscosities, producing flattening within 10–30 Myr. Conversely, reduced buoyancy, slower convergence, and lower viscosities favor steepening and slab rollback on comparable or shorter timescales of 5–10 Myr. This integrated and physically transparent analysis is consistent with the development of arc magmas on western margins of the Americas and provides a clear perspective to explain the diverse slab morphologies observed on Earth.

How to cite: Sanhueza, J. and Angiboust, S.: Revisiting force balance on subduction zones: the missing bridge to numerical simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12561, 2026.

EGU26-12929 | Orals | GD2.4

Hydration clues from the Nazca plate subduction zone in the northern part of the Ecuadorian subduction zone 

Mireille Laigle, Audrey Galve, François Michaud, Alexandra Skrubej, Laure Schenini, Alessandra Ribodetti, Arnaud Delsuc, Anaïs Erb, Constance Duclos, Monica Segovia, Sandro Vaca, Anca Higaki, Yvonne Font, Marc Régnier, David Ambrois, Jérôme Chèze, and Andreas Rietbrock

Fluid circulation through the Earth system plays a particularly important role in subduction zones, where it has a significant influence on seismic activity and metamorphic processes. Fluid circulation around the shallow seismogenic zone is considered to promote episodes of seismic/aseismic slips on the megathrust fault plane as well as on active satellite faults, leading in earthquakes, slow slips, clusters, repeaters, non-volcanic tremors activity.

Recent marine surveys conducted along the Ecuadorian margin, as part of the Fluid2Slip ANR project, have collected bathymetric dataset focusing on the Pedernales segment that ruptured during the M7.8 earthquake in 2016 (HiPER 2020 & 2022, SUPER-MOUV 2024). These data, combined with seismic reflection and refraction profiles, as well as seismological data from temporary dense deployments, provide preliminary insights on the structures potentially involved in the hydration hints of the Nazca oceanic plate.

Interpretation of MCS profiles enables the identification of the network of bending faults along the trench outer-wall and the characterization of the geometry of these faults. These faults exhibit vertical offsets of up to 300 m at the seafloor and, in some cases, shift the oceanic Moho, which may facilitate the hydration of the relatively young Nazca Plate in this area (< 15 Myr).

For the first time, a trench-normal dense OBS profile north of the Atacames seamounts characterizes the geometry and structure of the northern flank area of the Carnegie Ridge. We were able to show that the oceanic crust in this area is significantly thicker than expected (>12 km), well beyond the topographic signature of the Carnegie Ridge. By recording converted P-to-S waves along this OBS profile, we were able to quantify the P and S velocities of the oceanic crust at the trench. Local seismicity detected by the OBS refraction grid in the plate bending area close to the trench provides highlights to the in-depth crustal structure.

This work is complemented by the 3D tomographic inversion of HIPER2 cruise and by new hints on fluid pathways through the margin by the SUPER-MOUV cruise, both presented in the same session.

How to cite: Laigle, M., Galve, A., Michaud, F., Skrubej, A., Schenini, L., Ribodetti, A., Delsuc, A., Erb, A., Duclos, C., Segovia, M., Vaca, S., Higaki, A., Font, Y., Régnier, M., Ambrois, D., Chèze, J., and Rietbrock, A.: Hydration clues from the Nazca plate subduction zone in the northern part of the Ecuadorian subduction zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12929, 2026.

EGU26-14468 | ECS | Orals | GD2.4

Interseismic Strain Accumulation and Partitioning in Hispaniola from GNSS and InSAR 

Christian Emmanuel, Bryan Raimbault, Eric Calais, and Romain Jolivet

The northeastern Caribbean plate boundary provides a natural laboratory to investigate strain partitioning, fault slip rates, and crustal rheology in an actively deforming tectonic setting, where seismic hazard is a major concern. In this study, we combine GNSS and InSAR observations to improve our understanding of how strain is accommodated and how slip rates are distributed across this plate boundary, with a specific focus on the island of Hispaniola. The inclusion of InSAR data substantially mitigates the effects of the sparse and uneven spatial distribution of GNSS stations that limited earlier models. 

Using the combined GNSS-InSAR velocity field, we propose a new kinematic model that allows for internal deformation within selected tectonic blocks, incorporating InSAR-derived velocities for the first time in this type of modeling for the region. While our results are broadly consistent with previous studies, they identify and quantify compressional deformation within the Gulf of Gon\^ave, consistent with independent offshore observations.

We identify and quantify the impact of spatially correlated noise in the InSAR measurements, which is especially significant in this tropical, topographically complex region, where atmospheric artifacts can compete with or obscure the tectonic signal. We ultimately estimate surface strain rates and their associated uncertainties and compare these results with the geometry of faults imposed in block models as well as with the spatial distribution of current seismicity.

Our results confirm that the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden Fault Zone in southern Haiti is dominated by localized strike-slip motion. In contrast, deformation along the Septentrional Fault Zone in the Dominican Republic appears more distributed, suggesting that strain is accommodated by multiple fault strands rather than a single localized structure.

How to cite: Emmanuel, C., Raimbault, B., Calais, E., and Jolivet, R.: Interseismic Strain Accumulation and Partitioning in Hispaniola from GNSS and InSAR, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14468, 2026.

EGU26-14677 | Posters on site | GD2.4

Crustal and Mantle Structure Across Puerto Rico —From the Caribbean Plate to the Puerto Rico Trench— From an Onshore-Offshore Wide-Angle Seismic Transect  

Juan Pablo Canales, Elizabeth Vanacore, Claudia Flores, Shuoshuo Han, Uri ten Brink, and Ingo Grevemeyer

The Puerto Rico Trench (PRT) marks the oblique subduction of the North American Plate under the Greater Antilles Island Arc and the Caribbean Plate. In 2023 we conducted a geophysical survey of the PRT and across the island of Puerto Rico (PR) using the RV Langseth (cruises MGL2315 and MGL2316). PRISTINA (Puerto RIco Subduction Tectonics seismic INvestigAtion) consists of: a) 2D ultra-long-offset (13.65 km) multichannel seismic (MCS) reflection data; b) a N-S island-crossing wide-angle seismic profile sampling the incoming plate, PRT, Puerto Rico, Muertos thrust belt and Caribbean Plate instrumented with nodal land stations and ocean bottom seismometers (OBS); c) a wide-angle OBS profile crossing the PRT north of the British Virgin Islands; d) Four wide-angle fan profiles; e) Underway bathymetry, gravity and magnetics; and f) a temporary deployment of broadband stations in Puerto Rico.

Here we present a 2-D P-wave velocity (Vp) model along a 310-km-long, North-South-trending seismic transect at Longitude 66°30’W that illuminates the crustal and mantle structure of the Muertos Trough south of PR on the Caribbean Plate, the island of PR, and the PRT. The model is derived from traveltime tomography of active-source wide-angle data acquired with 30 ocean bottom seismometers (nominal spacing of 5-10 km), a temporary land deployment of 48 short-period nodal seismometers (nominal spacing of ~1 km), and 4 permanent broadband stations, all of which recorded marine airgun shots.

Our preliminary results show that along the southern section of the transect, an ~11.5-km-thick Caribbean crust underthrusts the frontal ~30 km of the Muertos Thrust Belt where 2-7-km-thick sediments (Vp<4 km/s) have been accreted against a crystalline terrain (Vp~5.5 km/s) forming the southern submarine slope of PR. Beneath Central-Southern PR, velocities of 6.5 kms are not reached until ~22 km depth, and Vp of 7 km/s at 32 km depth, suggesting an island arc crust of normal thickness but abnormally low Vp. Beneath Central-Northern PR high velocities (6.5-7 km/s) are found at 4-10 km depth, similar to global averages of island arc crustal structure. Along the northern section of the transect beneath the PRT, a narrow sedimentary wedge with very low Vp (3 km/s at 5 km depth) overlies a heavily faulted Cretaceous Atlantic lithosphere shallowly subducting (9°) beneath the northern submarine flank of PR, where Vp of 5-7 km/s suggests a crystalline nature.

How to cite: Canales, J. P., Vanacore, E., Flores, C., Han, S., ten Brink, U., and Grevemeyer, I.: Crustal and Mantle Structure Across Puerto Rico —From the Caribbean Plate to the Puerto Rico Trench— From an Onshore-Offshore Wide-Angle Seismic Transect , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14677, 2026.

EGU26-15337 | Posters on site | GD2.4

Relationship between magnitudes commonly calculated by the French observatories and the moment magnitude Mw, and variability of stress drop in the Lesser Antilles subduction zone 

Jordane Corbeau, O'Leary Gonzalez, Claudio Satriano, Jean-Marie Saurel, Marie-Paule Bouin, and Arnaud Lemarchand

Published catalog of instrumental seismicity from French observatories in the Lesser Antilles (OVSG in Guadeloupe and OVSM in Martinique) ranging from 2014 to 2022 is very extensive in space and time but the computed magnitudes are based on various local scales (Saurel et al., 2022; 2024), a common issue for hazard assessment studies. The aim of this study is to unify the magnitudes of this catalog, by establishing a regression relationship between the magnitudes commonly calculated by the observatories and the moment magnitude Mw, and studying the variability of stress drop depending on the tectonic context from trench to depth. The catalog contains 18,784 earthquakes recorded by, with small variations, the same regional seismic stations during the whole period, and with magnitudes ranging from -2.0 to 6.2. Completeness analysis for the entire Lesser Antilles arc reveals two main maximum values: one at M = -0.2, related to volcanic earthquakes from active volcanoes; another at M = 2.5, indicating the approximate completeness magnitude threshold for earthquakes of tectonic origin. In this study we focus on 8,569 earthquakes with M > 2.0. Moment magnitudes Mw were estimated using SourceSpec codes (SSp) (Satriano et al., 2016; 2025), which performs spectral inversion of S-wave displacement spectra. The inversion also provides key parameters such as corner frequency, seismic moment, radiated energy, static stress drop, and apparent stress. Mw values calculated with SSp are consistent with Mw calculated by moment tensor inversion with the Isola software or reported by international agencies, and may support the retroactive inclusion of Mw in older catalogues. Finally, magnitudes Mw computed with SSp codes were validated for 4,238 earthquakes. The relationship between magnitudes does not appear to be linear for the entire M range, and variations in slope and intercept values are observed with depth. Several orthogonal distance regressions with exponential models were then computed for each type of magnitude and for different range of magnitudes and depths. Md appears less stable and, where possible, should be avoided in earthquake location analyses. Uncertainties in magnitude estimations coming from the original catalog were incorporated in the regressions to enhance the results. The different final laws will enable the conversion and incorporation of additional data from instrumental data before 2014. Regarding the preliminary observations of variability of median stress drop values, we observe small differences between the seismotectonic domains from trench to depth. 

How to cite: Corbeau, J., Gonzalez, O., Satriano, C., Saurel, J.-M., Bouin, M.-P., and Lemarchand, A.: Relationship between magnitudes commonly calculated by the French observatories and the moment magnitude Mw, and variability of stress drop in the Lesser Antilles subduction zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15337, 2026.

EGU26-15378 | Posters on site | GD2.4

Evaluating Tectonic Models for the Pelona, Orocopia, and Rand schists in the Southwestern USA 

Harold Stowell, Nikki Seymour, Suzanne Autrey, and Connor Gregory

Flat slab subduction has been proposed along the southwestern U.S. margin during the Late Cretaceous. The model is partly based on exposures of garnet-bearing Pelona, Orocopia, and Rand schists (PORS), which crop out in isolated mountain ranges extending from the Los Angeles California area eastward >400 km into western Arizona. These chlorite+muscovite+/-biotite+/-garnet schists have distinctive characteristics that include graphitic inclusions in albite porphyroblasts, interlayering with mafic schists of MORB composition and Mn-rich siliceous marbles and cherts, and local blocks of metasomatized mantle peridotite. The flat slab model interprets the PORS association as oceanic sediment underplated to North American crust and subsequently exhumed by Basin and Range extension. Other models of the tectonic development of the western US call this interpretation into question. Ongoing research focuses on using Quartz-in-Garnet elastic geobarometry (QuiG), elemental exchange thermometry (e.g., GArnet-BIotite - GABI), Phase Diagram Sections (PhaDS), and garnet Sm-Nd geochronology to construct new Pressure-Temperature-time (P-T-t) paths for select PORS rocks along a west-east transect to evaluate the tectono-metamorphic history of this assemblage. We report temperature estimates of 603, 627, and 620°C (±25°C GABI) obtained from the San Emigdio, Portal Ridge, and Plomosa mountains, respectively. QuiG pressure estimates of 0.72-0.97 GPa at 627°C were obtained from Portal Ridge. These new results are consistent with PhaDS models that predict <0.9 GPa for equilibrium of quartz + plagioclase + muscovite + biotite + chlorite + magnetite + ilmenite. We interpret the results from Portal Ridge and the San Emigdios, the two westernmost sites in this study, to indicate shallow depths of 28-38 km of overlying crust. These crustal thicknesses are significantly lower than ~70 km estimates for North American crustal thickness during the Late Cretaceous. Future P-T-t paths, including garnet Sm-Nd ages, will provide a critical test for models of accretion to the base of the western Cordilleran continental crust by shallow/flat slab subduction of the Farallon oceanic plate.

How to cite: Stowell, H., Seymour, N., Autrey, S., and Gregory, C.: Evaluating Tectonic Models for the Pelona, Orocopia, and Rand schists in the Southwestern USA, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15378, 2026.

EGU26-15914 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.4

From ductile shearing to brittle reactivation of a tectonic suture: The evolution of the Cauca–Romeral Fault System, Northern Andes  

Laura Cristina Calderón Díaz, Sebastian Zapata, Agustín Cardona, Mauricio Parra, Daniel Ortiz, Sara Villa, and Veronica Paverelli

Andean-type orogens are characterized by prolonged subduction, in which the upper plate can record alternation between contractional and extensional phases. Subduction may involve the accretion of anomalies in the subducted slab, resulting in upper plate deformation and mountain building. The collision of the Caribbean Large Igneous Province (CLIP) with the western margin of South America between 75 - 62 Ma marked the evolution of the Northern Andes.

Despite this structure playing a fundamental role as an inherited structure that could control reactivations during the construction of the Northern Andes, the timing of this collisional event has been constrained through field-based structural observations and cross-cutting relationships. There is still no direct dating of the deformation, nor an understanding of the deformation mechanisms and metamorphic conditions of the shear zone during the collision and the subsequent reactivations. To address this, we propose an integrated study combining field observations, petrographic, geochronological, and mineral chemical analysis.

Extending approximately 2,000 km from Colombia to Ecuador, the Cauca–Romeral Fault System (CRFS) is the tectonic suture between the continental basement of South America and allochthonous oceanic terranes associated with the Caribbean Plate. Along this system, a mylonitic belt with well-developed ductile fabrics locally overprinted by brittle structures reflects a complex history of deformation and reactivation, which is used in this work to constrain the timing and conditions of the deformational phases.

Field relationships and petrographic observations suggest multiple deformation phases, including at least two ductile events and brittle reactivations. The ductile deformation is evidenced by shear zones with well-developed mylonitic fabrics affecting both oceanic and continental domains. The mylonites exhibit a first fabric defined by rotated and fractured hornblende and plagioclase porphyroclasts, with grain boundary migration (GBM) textures in quartz. This fabric is overprinted by a second foliation with neoformed chlorite and titanite, and subgrain rotation (SGR) textures in quartz. Both ductile fabrics are cross-cut by multiple fracture sets filled with epidote and calcite, which are fractured and displaced, as well as by extensive feldspar alteration to sericite, associated with brittle conditions.

These observations are consistent with the chemical compositions of chlorite, which indicate deformation under greenschist facies conditions, whereas hornblende porphyroclasts preserve inherited chemical signatures from the protolith or earlier metamorphic stages.

Apatite fission-track ages of 27.1 ± 1.6 and 28.0 ± 1.57 Ma from mylonites in the western fault of the CRFS suggest that the hanging wall of this fault reached temperatures above ~120°C before the Miocene.

The CRFS records a polyphase deformational history marked by ductile shearing and subsequent brittle reactivation. Textural and chemical evidence in quartz, hornblende, and chlorite suggest that the mylonitic deformation occurred under amphibolite facies conditions (~600°C), possibly associated with the collision of the CLIP, and was subsequently overprinted by lower-temperature deformation under greenschist facies (~350-450°C). These phases are overprinted by hydrothermal alteration, veining, and faulting, reflecting brittle deformation, which can be related to the AFT ages that indicate cooling to shallow crustal levels by the Oligocene.

This work is part of project 111193, funded by Minciencias, Colombia.

How to cite: Calderón Díaz, L. C., Zapata, S., Cardona, A., Parra, M., Ortiz, D., Villa, S., and Paverelli, V.: From ductile shearing to brittle reactivation of a tectonic suture: The evolution of the Cauca–Romeral Fault System, Northern Andes , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15914, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15914, 2026.

Volcanoes, earthquakes and natural resources along the margins of the Caribbean plate have been shaped by a history of subduction. In this presentation I will provide an overview how a dense deployment of Broadband Ocean Bottom Seismometer (BOBS) helped us to investigate several fundamental processes caused by the subduction of lithospheric crust and mantle through the upper mantel down to the mantle transition zone (MTZ). Using teleseismic tomography and plate reconstruction techniques we unraveled the tectonic history of the Caribbean plate showing clear evidence of a slab window and tear along the subducted Proto-Caribbean ridge, which also hosted one of the largest intermediate depth earthquakes in the region. Using local earthquake tomography, we developed a new slab model for the region and combining travel time and attenuation tomography we were able to identify melt ponds under the upper plate. We also found that serpentine most likely residing along major fracture zones is the dominant supplier of subducted water in the central arc of the Caribbean. Finally, by using P-to-S receiver functions to image the slab and the mantle transition zone beneath the Lesser Antilles we find that the slab flows directly though the mantle transition zone exhibiting super-deep (>700 km) discontinuities caused by a large basalt-rich chemical anomaly. All our findings point in the direction that the tectonic history of the subducting lithospheric crust and mantle has a strong influence on the observed geodynamic processes we image with geophysical techniques in subduction zone settings. 

How to cite: Rietbrock, A.:  Imaging subduction zone processes along the Lesser Antilles using a broadband ocean bottom seismometer network: The VoiLA experiment , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16545, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16545, 2026.

EGU26-17108 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.4

Shallow crustal imaging with distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) offshore central Chile 

Clara Vernet, Diane Rivet, Alister Trabattoni, and Marie Baillet

In subduction zones, shallow crustal faults accommodate a fraction of the tectonic deformation and modulate the distribution of marine sediments. The interplay between active faults and sedimentary basins influences seismic hazards and the potential for submarine landslides. Imaging these active structures is crucial for constraining their geometry, physical properties, and contributions to regional geodynamic processes. Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) offers an opportunity to passively image shallow offshore sediments at high spatial resolution, by converting preexisting submarine telecommunication cables into dense seismic arrays. Using hundreds of kilometers of submarine fibers, DAS enables ambient seismic noise tomography with resolutions of a few hundred meters near the coastline, sufficient to resolve detailed sedimentary velocity structures beneath the cables. Beyond velocity imaging, identifying strong impedance contrasts enables the localization of diffracting structures, such as faults and sedimentary basin edges.

In this study, we present a set of complementary imaging approaches based on both ambient noise and earthquake records, which we use to investigate shallow marine sediments offshore central Chile. Our analysis uses over two years of continuous DAS recordings from three submarine cables located within the study area. Firstly, we apply wavefield separation to the earthquake recordings within a local back-projection framework in order to image fault-related structures at sub-kilometer scales, identifying scattered wavefields that are consistent with fault zones intersecting the cables. Secondly, we use the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of ambient seismic noise to image strong impedance contrasts and reveal sedimentary basin edges along the three cables. Thirdly, we analyze high-resolution power spectral density using earthquakes, ambient noise, and autocorrelation functions to investigate the relationship between high-frequency resonances, shallow sedimentary deposits, local attenuation, and basin-edge effects. These are all key factors in quantifying site response offshore. Finally, we validate our interpretations using numerical wave propagation simulations, which show good agreement with the observed DAS data.

Together, these methods reveal sedimentary accumulations within basins and fault-related structures that are consistent with regional geological constraints. Although variability in coupling and the use of two-dimensional models limit full structural characterization, our results demonstrate the ability of DAS to resolve fine-scale offshore structures and highlight its potential for studying offshore faulting, sediment dynamics, and site effects along the central Chilean margin.

How to cite: Vernet, C., Rivet, D., Trabattoni, A., and Baillet, M.: Shallow crustal imaging with distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) offshore central Chile, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17108, 2026.

EGU26-17997 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.4

Surface deformation of the Eastern Central Andes, observed by wide-swath radar interferometric time-series. 

Blanca Symmes Lopetegui, Sabrina Metzger, Bodo Bookhagen, and Laura Giambiagi

Active deformation in the Eastern Central Andes backarc involves ongoing east-west shortening, and crustal strain with the potential to trigger a Mw 7.8 earthquake is accumulating, as indicated by geological records and geodetic data. We focus on the sparsely instrumented northwestern Argentina and southwestern Bolivia to quantify and localize ongoing E–W shortening of the Eastern Andes, and to characterize localized deformation related to other active processes in the backarc. 

We analyzed ten years of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data to measure rates of surface deformation and generate time series. We rely on descending ALOS-2 radar imagery (L-band) and wide-swath (~350 km) ScanSAR mode. We used the “alos2stack” workflow in the ISCE-2 software, and substantially downsampled the interferograms to suppress noise, resulting in a ground-range pixel spacing of ~136 m. We then generated deformation time-series with the MintPy software and applied corrections for topography, solid Earth tides, and stratified tropospheric signal delay using ERA5 weather models. We further applied a range split-spectrum method to suppress the ionospheric phase contribution.  

The resulting surface deformation rate maps are complemented by pointwise displacement rates from accurate positioning (GNSS), projected into the satellite line-of-sight (LOS). We also compare InSAR-derived rate maps and LOS gradients along multiple cross-orogen transects with geologic fault maps, seismicity, and topography. 

The resulting rates describe the kinematics from the Puna Plateau through the Eastern Cordillera to the highly vegetated Subandes, including the frontal Mandeyapecua thrust. They reveal a variety of active processes in the Central Andean backarc: The long-wavelength E–W crustal shortening signal (~1 cm/yr LOS) is overlaid by local processes like inflation at Cerro Overo volcano (~1.5 cm/yr LOS), the dynamics of salars such as the Salar de Arizaro (~0.5 cm/yr LOS), coseismic displacement of ~8 cm associated with the 2020 Mw 5.8 Humahuaca earthquake, and several landslides.  

 

How to cite: Symmes Lopetegui, B., Metzger, S., Bookhagen, B., and Giambiagi, L.: Surface deformation of the Eastern Central Andes, observed by wide-swath radar interferometric time-series., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17997, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17997, 2026.

EGU26-18593 | Posters on site | GD2.4

Lesser Antilles instrumental seismic catalog from the French observatories for seismic hazard assessment 

Jean-Marie Saurel, Jordane Corbeau, O'Leary Gonzalez, and Claudio Satriano

With the upcoming adoption of a new version of the European construction codes, the French agency for risk mitigation (DGPR) has initiated the update of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) on its territories. For the French Lesser Antilles territories of Martinique, Guadeloupe, Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélémy islands, this PSHA update is done in the framework of the ATLAS project. Long period and broad coverage seismic catalogs with homogeneous magnitude estimates are needed as input in PSHA calculation. In the French Antilles, IPGP volcanological and seismological observatories in Martinique (OVSM) and Guadeloupe (OVSG) locate all events seen by their seismic networks since 1981. In 2013, in the framework of the CDSA regional project (centre de données sismologique des Antilles), Massin et al has merged all phases bulletin and location from different agencies, including OVSM and OVSG to produce a multi-origin, automatic relocated catalog available in QuakeML format.

Since 2014 and the completion of the WI VSAT regional network, IPGP publishes every year a validated and unique catalog with the data from both IPGP observatories. In 2025, this catalog between 2014  and 2022 was processed by Gonzalez et al to compute moment magnitudes and establish robust regression laws between Mw and the most commonly used local magnitude scales in OVSM and OVSG.

Based on those two previous studies, we were able to retrieve the original manually validated OVSM and OVSG catalogs from the CDSA database in QuakeML format. We then applied the same validation process we are using to produce the unique yearly catalog since 2014. This process includes identifying and merging events that were located by both observatories, selecting the best solution. A thorough manual review is performed to eliminate any false or badly located event and to ensure no significant events were missed. All events without any magnitude are removed from the database.

Prior to 2013, only one magnitude was used in routine at the observatory, consistently since 1981: the duration magnitude. However, for significant events, this magnitude which saturates around M 4 was replaced by local or moment magnitude from international agencies. For events with magnitude higher than 4, we then look in the ISC earthquake database to replace the local magnitude by GCMT Mw magnitude if it exists, or to tag the observatory magnitude as local. Finally, we apply the regression laws established by Gonzalez et al to produce a final catalog with all magnitude either in calculated Mw or in converted Mw.

This validated catalog of more than 30 000 events covers the central portion of the Lesser Antilles between 1981 and 2013. In addition to the PSHA studies performed in the framework of the ATLAS project, this reference catalog can be used for numerous studies, such as long-term seismo-tectonic variations of the subduction and crustal faults.

How to cite: Saurel, J.-M., Corbeau, J., Gonzalez, O., and Satriano, C.: Lesser Antilles instrumental seismic catalog from the French observatories for seismic hazard assessment, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18593, 2026.

EGU26-19381 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.4

Structure and evolution of the Cayman Trough oriental margin : Legacy seismic data and samples 

Thomas Joyeux, Sylvie Leroy, Nicolas Saspiturry, Philippe Munch, Yamirka Rojas-Agramonte, Mélody Philippon, Elia d'Acremont, and Bernard Mercier de Lepinay

The Northern boundary of the Caribbean plate, and more specifically the Gonâve microplate, is the locus of intense tectonic activity partly accommodated by two strike-slip fault systems (the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden Fault Zone (EPGFZ) to the south and the Septentrional-Oriente Fault Zone (SOFZ) to the North) and by the opening of the Cayman Trough to the west and the Haitian fold-and-thrust belt in the east. This region has been extensively studied for several years since the earthquake of 12 January 2010; however, the deformation in the Gonâve Gulf to the west of Hispaniola island has not yet been well characterised. Multibeam bathymetric and seismic reflection data from multiple oceanographic campaigns in the study area have enabled us to identify tilted blocks from the eastern Cayman Through continental margin with low-angle normal faults. Seismic horizons allow us to identify the roof of syn-rift units in the Gonâve Gulf with an initiation of the rifting between 49 and 56 My.

New Ar/Ar dating of granodiorites recovered during submersible dives (CAYVIC cruise) on tilted blocks in the distal part of the margin, together with the interpretation of newly processed seismic profiles from the CASIS oceanographic campaign crossing the Ocean Continent transition, provide the timing and geometry of the tectonic structures of the eastern continental margin. Extending from north of Jamaica to at least the eastern part of the Gonâve Gulf, with a length of 450 km, the continental margin appears relatively classical, with a beta factor of 2.7.

NE-SW compression in the Gonâve Gulf, linked to the collision with the North American plate, reactivates the extensive structures and creates new compressive structures. We propose a spatio-temporal evolution of tectonic structures from the formation of the Eastern Cayman trough margin to the west to its reactivation in the Haitian fold-and-thrust belt to the east.

How to cite: Joyeux, T., Leroy, S., Saspiturry, N., Munch, P., Rojas-Agramonte, Y., Philippon, M., d'Acremont, E., and Mercier de Lepinay, B.: Structure and evolution of the Cayman Trough oriental margin : Legacy seismic data and samples, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19381, 2026.

EGU26-19696 | Orals | GD2.4

Linking Postseismic Deformation and Slab Rheology to Seismic Segmentation in Central Chile 

Diego Molina, Bertrand Lovery, Mathilde Radiguet, Marie Pierre, and Anne Socquet

Understanding the rheological structure of the lithosphere and the frictional behavior of the interface is essential to evaluate the mechanisms controlling surface deformation and seismic behavior along subduction margins. Postseismic deformation following large megathrust earthquakes provides a unique opportunity to constrain these properties, as it is strongly influenced by afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation processes.

In this study, we analyze the postseismic deformation associated with the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake in Central Chile by jointly exploiting GNSS and InSAR time series spanning up to eight years after the event. While GNSS data offer high temporal resolution, InSAR provides continuous spatial coverage, allowing us to characterize postseismic deformation at both local and regional scales. To separate the contributions of different deformation processes, we perform an Independent Component Analysis (ICA) on GNSS time series, and a pixel-by-pixel parametric decomposition on InSAR data.

Our results reveal two main postseismic deformation patterns. The first one is spatially correlated with the coseismic rupture area and displays a logarithmic temporal decay, consistent with afterslip-driven deformation. The second pattern is located north of the main rupture zone and is characterized by a nearly linear temporal evolution. This signal spatially coincides with a region of persistently low interseismic coupling, suggesting a distinct physical origin.

Based on these observations, we perform numerical modeling using the finite-element solver PyLith to investigate the potential sources of deformation. The models incorporate realistic fault geometry and rheological layering, and are driven by the imposed coseismic slip distribution. Our results indicate that the observed deformation patterns are best explained by the presence of a low-viscosity channel at a ~40 km depth, located at the base of the slab interface. This rheological anomaly spatially correlates with the subduction of the Challenger Fracture Zone (~30°S).

We propose that the subduction of this bathymetric anomaly enhances fluid release, which, through serpentinization processes, reduces the effective viscosity of the medium. These findings have important implications for seismic segmentation and earthquake behavior, as this region commonly acts as a boundary for the rupture of large megathrust earthquakes.

 

How to cite: Molina, D., Lovery, B., Radiguet, M., Pierre, M., and Socquet, A.: Linking Postseismic Deformation and Slab Rheology to Seismic Segmentation in Central Chile, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19696, 2026.

EGU26-19752 | ECS | Orals | GD2.4

From Elastic Strain to Permanent Uplift Along the North Chilean Forearc 

Ehsan Kosari, Sabrina Metzger, Victor Navarro-Sanchez, Onno Oncken, Bernd Schurr, Matthias Rosenau, Pia Victor, Christian Sippl, and Ylona van Dinther

Along-strike variations in megathrust coupling modulate forearc deformation through both elastic, seismic-cycle processes and permanent tectonic uplift. Yet the degree to which short-term interseismic deformation is translated into long-term geomorphic expression remains poorly constrained. We investigate this relationship along the hyperarid North Chilean forearc using Sentinel-1 InSAR time series and a set of geomorphic uplift proxies, including marine terraces, coastal topography, and alluvial fan slopes. The preservation of landforms allows direct comparison between geodetic and geomorphic signals across spatial and temporal scales.

The relationship between geodetic uplift rates and long-term uplift indicators varies along strike and becomes weak or alternates between positive and negative correlations in the Mejillones Peninsula region. This peninsula constitutes a tectonic hinge separating two seismotectonic segments characterized by distinct deformation patterns. Alternating correlations and anticorrelations between geodetic uplift and uplifted marine traces imply episodic uplift governed by the interplay of interseismic and coseismic vertical motions. Coastal alluvial fan slopes correlate with geodetic uplift only in the  segment north of Mejillones towards the north, whereas south of it their independence from uplift suggests a dominant climatic control. The geodetic uplift rates and coastal topography preserve similar large-scale trends while differing in finer-scale, and the local correlation remains mostly positive across the latitude range. Upper-plate faults align with the north–south aligned inflection zone of geodetic uplift, suggesting that their geometry and distribution may be influenced by regional bending and strain gradients across the uplift–subsidence transition. Their low slip-rates may indicate that these faults do not accommodate significant long-term plate motion; instead, they remain largely quiescent interseismically and are preferentially activated during megathrust earthquakes through transient stress transfer. Our results suggest that long-wavelength, long-term deformation dominates forearc topography, whereas short-wavelength, seismic-cycle deformation adds variability that may be preserved differently across geomorphic features. 

How to cite: Kosari, E., Metzger, S., Navarro-Sanchez, V., Oncken, O., Schurr, B., Rosenau, M., Victor, P., Sippl, C., and van Dinther, Y.: From Elastic Strain to Permanent Uplift Along the North Chilean Forearc, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19752, 2026.

EGU26-20693 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.4

New Bathymetric and Seismic Reflection Data along the Northern Haiti Margin: Preliminary Results on the Active Geological Processes 

Marina Rueda-Fort, José-Luis Granja-Bruña, Alfonso Muñoz-Martín, Miguel-Ángel De la Fuente-Oliver, María Berriolópez-Llamosas, Alfonso Muñoz-Cemillán, and Francisco-José Martínez-Moreno and the GEOMARHIS

The convergence of the North American plate with Caribbean plate occurs at a rate of 20.0 ± 0.4 mm/yr towards 254 ± 1º. This results in a highly oblique convergence (20-10º), which is accommodated in the Hispaniola Island by means of strain partitioning, represented in its northern margin by the Northern Hispaniola Deformed Belt (NHDB), accommodating the normal shortening, and the Septentrional Fault Zone (SFZ), which accommodates the along-strike convergence component. Here, we show the preliminary results of an integrated multiscale analysis based on new data acquired at the end of 2025, during the GEOMARHIS marine geophysical cruise, onboard the RRS James Cook. These new data include swath bathymetry data and a dense set of 2D seismic reflection profiles comprising medium, high and ultra high-resolution data. The integration and combined interpretation allow for an identification of the along-strike variability of fault geometry and sediment deformation along the northern Haiti margin. New data reveal active N-verging thrusts and fault-propagation folds in the NHDB, sub-vertical faults associated with the SFZ that produce seafloor scarps, and an extensive field of irregular-shaped seafloor depressions. These features suggest a complex interaction between tectonic, gravitational, and oceanographic processes. This continuous multi-scale approach will advance our understanding of active tectonic and sedimentary processes, which will help future studies assess seismic and tsunami risks in the region.

How to cite: Rueda-Fort, M., Granja-Bruña, J.-L., Muñoz-Martín, A., De la Fuente-Oliver, M.-Á., Berriolópez-Llamosas, M., Muñoz-Cemillán, A., and Martínez-Moreno, F.-J. and the GEOMARHIS: New Bathymetric and Seismic Reflection Data along the Northern Haiti Margin: Preliminary Results on the Active Geological Processes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20693, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20693, 2026.

EGU26-20993 | Posters on site | GD2.4

New multi-scale geophysical data in the northern Hispaniola offshore margin (GEOMARHIS experiment): Preliminary results on oblique tectonics, strain partitioning and associated geological hazards. 

Jose-Luis Granja-Bruña, Alfonso Muñoz-Martín, Marina Rueda-Fort, Miguel Ángel De la Fuente-Oliver, Irene Díez-García, Natalia Martínez-Carreño, Julián Fiz Barrena, María Berriolópez Llamosas, Alfonso Muñoz-Cemillán, Thomas Joyeux, and Francisco José Martínez-Moreno and the GEOMARHIS TEAM

Geophysical and geological records attest that the Northern Hispaniola margin poses major earthquake and tsunami hazards for the Greater Antilles. Along this margin it is located the oblique boundary between the Caribbean and the North American plates. This boundary plate is characterized by the coexistence of seismogenic compressive deformed belts and the strike-slip fault zones that represent a strain partitioning model. Between December 3rd of 2025 and January 3rd of 2026, we carried out a multi-scale controlled-seismic source marine survey between Puerto Rico and Cuba (GEOMARHIS experiment). During the marine cruise we acquired multi-channel seismic reflection profiles along- and across-strike of plate boundary using several experimental setups: 1) 2000 km seismic profiles using a 3 km-long streamer of 240 channels (12.5 m-interval) and a 1760 ci airgun array, 900 km of high-resolution seismic profiles using a streamer of 40 channels (6.25 m-interval), and a 420 ci airgun array and a 3.6 kJ sparker sources. In addition, we acquired systematic continuous ultra-high-resolution seismic data, swath bathymetry-backscatter, gravity and magnetics. Here, we show a preliminary interpretation of the tectonic structure based the new data that will provide key information to assess the seismic and tsunami hazard for Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba. 

How to cite: Granja-Bruña, J.-L., Muñoz-Martín, A., Rueda-Fort, M., De la Fuente-Oliver, M. Á., Díez-García, I., Martínez-Carreño, N., Fiz Barrena, J., Berriolópez Llamosas, M., Muñoz-Cemillán, A., Joyeux, T., and Martínez-Moreno, F. J. and the GEOMARHIS TEAM: New multi-scale geophysical data in the northern Hispaniola offshore margin (GEOMARHIS experiment): Preliminary results on oblique tectonics, strain partitioning and associated geological hazards., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20993, 2026.

EGU26-21390 | Posters on site | GD2.4

Tectonic Reorganization and Transient Connectivity in the Northeastern Caribbean 

Mélody Philippon, Leny Montheil, Douwe van Hinsbergen, Jean-Jacques Cornée, Franck Audemard, Sylvie Leroy, and Simon Bufferal

The northeastern Caribbean is a key region for understanding how subduction dynamics, internal plate deformation, and paleogeographic change interact to shape long-term Earth surface systems. Traditionally modeled as part of a rigid Caribbean plate, this region is now recognized as having undergone substantial internal deformation since the Eocene. Integrating paleomagnetic constraints with kinematic and paleogeographic reconstructions reveals a far more dynamic tectonic evolution than previously assumed. Significant vertical-axis rotations and relative translations affected major tectonic domains of the northeastern Caribbean throughout the Cenozoic. These rotations, reaching several tens of degrees, occurred in multiple phases and reflect the cumulative effects of oblique subduction, arc-parallel shearing, and progressive reorganization of plate-boundary structures. Deformation was distributed across rotating blocks rather than localized along discrete plate boundaries, fundamentally modifying regional geometry and challenging rigid-plate models. Incorporating these kinematic constraints into plate reconstructions highlights a highly variable paleogeographic history. Subduction-related uplift, subsidence, and arc migration episodically altered the extent and connectivity of emerged landmasses in the eastern Caribbean. During the Eocene and Oligocene, tectonic uplift and shallow platforms likely formed transient land connections or island chains between northern South America and the northern Caribbean islands. These connections were later disrupted by tectonic fragmentation and subsidence as convergence dynamics evolved. Overall, this integrated framework demonstrates that deep geodynamic processes exert a first-order control on Caribbean landscape evolution and ecological connectivity, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary approaches linking tectonics, paleogeography, and Earth surface processes.

How to cite: Philippon, M., Montheil, L., van Hinsbergen, D., Cornée, J.-J., Audemard, F., Leroy, S., and Bufferal, S.: Tectonic Reorganization and Transient Connectivity in the Northeastern Caribbean, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21390, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21390, 2026.

EGU26-22363 | ECS | Orals | GD2.4

Reconstructing Caribbean Landscapes to Understand Biodiversity Patterns 

Simon Bufféral, Melody Philippon, Douwe van Hinsbergen, Dupont-Nivet Guillaume, Cornée Jean-Jacques, and Montheil Leny

Integrating dynamic paleogeographic reconstructions into biodiversity studies reveals that Caribbean patterns of diversity, endemism, and biotic assembly arose through a combination of geodynamic processes rather than solely through long-distance overwater dispersal across a stable archipelago. Present-day biodiversity reflects the cumulative imprint of long-term geodynamic processes that continuously reshaped the region’s landscapes throughout the Cenozoic. Geodynamic reconstructions that integrate plate kinematics, subduction dynamics, and intraplate deformation show that the Caribbean evolved through successive phases of uplift, subsidence, rotation, and fragmentation, producing a highly dynamic configuration, extent, and connectivity of emerged landmasses. Subduction-related uplift and arc migration periodically generated shallow platforms, emergent volcanic arcs, and island chains that temporarily reduced marine barriers between the American continents and Caribbean islands. Conversely, tectonic reorganization and subsidence fragmented these connections, isolating landmasses and reorganizing drainage systems. These alternations between connectivity and isolation are central to understanding the timing and pathways of biotic dispersal and diversification. By explicitly incorporating block rotations, vertical motions, and plate-boundary reconfigurations, geodynamic reconstructions provide physical constraints on when and where terrestrial and freshwater dispersal routes existed. These reconstructions therefore offer a critical temporal and spatial framework for interpreting phylogenetic divergence times, colonization pulses, and patterns of endemism across the Caribbean biodiversity hotspot. In particular, they help reconcile apparent mismatches between biological and geological timescales by identifying short-lived but recurrent windows of connectivity that facilitated biotic exchange. This integrated geodynamic-biogeographic perspective underscores that Caribbean biodiversity is inseparable from the region’s tectonic evolution: deep Earth processes governed the emergence and disappearance of habitats, structured ecological connectivity, and ultimately shaped the assembly of one of the world’s most diverse and endemic island systems.

How to cite: Bufféral, S., Philippon, M., van Hinsbergen, D., Guillaume, D.-N., Jean-Jacques, C., and Leny, M.: Reconstructing Caribbean Landscapes to Understand Biodiversity Patterns, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22363, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22363, 2026.

EGU26-22939 | ECS | Posters on site | GD2.4

Varying fault patterns and the role of proto-thrusts in strain accommodation along the northern Cascadia subduction zone 

Wiebke Schäfer, Michael Riedel, Gareth Crutchley, and Heidrun Kopp

Large subduction earthquakes and associated tsunamis pose major hazards to coastal regions worldwide. The Cascadia subduction zone, where the Juan de Fuca plate subducts beneath North America, has historically experienced several devastating megathrust earthquakes (MW > 8.5), most recently in 1700 CE. Nowadays, the Cascadia margin is considered to be in a late stage of the interseismic period and therefore one of the regions in the world, that is most prone to a major subduction earthquake in the foreseeable future. However, despite its high seismic potential, deformation processes at the Cascadia deformation front remain incompletely understood. In this study, we focus on the northern Cascadia margin and perform a systematic analysis of structural variations and fault patterns along the margin, using 14 newly acquired high-resolution 2D multichannel seismic data oriented perpendicular to the deformation front offshore Vancouver Island. These data are complemented by legacy seismic profiles that provide improved velocity constraints as well as high-resolution bathymetric data. Our results show that the deformation front is well marked by a series of bathymetric ridges and is segmented into sections of 4–10 km length. The main frontal thrust is traceable throughout the profiles and changes vergence from mostly seaward verging in the north to a landward verging segment, before swapping back to seaward verging in the south. The high-resolution data enables us to image proto-thrust zones in northern Cascadia for the first time and reveals a link between the occurrence and geometry of these proto-thrusts and the frontal thrust vergence. Landward-verging frontal thrusts are associated with wide proto-thrust zones characterized by mixed vergence, whereas seaward-verging frontal thrusts exhibit sparse, predominantly seaward-verging proto-thrusts both landward and seaward of the main frontal thrust. Velocity analyses reveal compaction-related velocity increases seaward of the deformation front exclusively in areas with well-developed proto-thrust zones, indicating that the proto-thrusts have accommodated a significant amount of strain prior to frontal accretion and play an important role in frontal deformation processes. We will compare our findings to other subduction zones and discuss them in the context of hazard potential expected from potential future megathrust earthquakes in the area.

How to cite: Schäfer, W., Riedel, M., Crutchley, G., and Kopp, H.: Varying fault patterns and the role of proto-thrusts in strain accommodation along the northern Cascadia subduction zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22939, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22939, 2026.

EGU26-1431 | ECS | Posters on site | GD3.1

Flow through a slab tear? Lateral variations in seismic anisotropy beneath the Colombian Andes 

Christopher Carchedi, Lara Wagner, and Gaspar Monsalve

Slab tears are observed around the globe with increasing frequency as datasets and imaging methodologies improve, though the interactions between slab tears and the surrounding mantle flow remain enigmatic. Constraints on mantle flow around and through slab tears are crucial to a comprehensive understanding of slab-mantle interactions, as (1) cross-tear flow may allow mixing between upper mantle reservoirs otherwise separated by subducting slabs, and (2) cross-tear flow may impact the strength of nearby corner flow and therefore influence regional dynamic topography. However, the ability to study slab tears and their impact on mantle flow is limited by the number of slabs with clearly observed tearing and sufficient measurement density to capture lateral variations in mantle flow across the tear. On both counts, the Colombian Andes serve as an ideal region to study the interplay between slab tears and mantle dynamics.

The Colombian Andes are shaped by complex interactions between the subducting Nazca and Caribbean plates, as most clearly manifested by the Caldas Tear—a sharp lateral offset in slab seismicity near 5.5°N spanning more than 150 km. Using data collected across this boundary during the recent MUSICA (Modeling, Uplift, Seismicity, and Igneous geochemistry of the Colombian Andes) broadband seismic deployment, we investigate lateral variations in seismic anisotropy across the Colombian Andes by measuring shear-wave splitting of SKS and SKKS phases from teleseismic earthquakes.

Measurements of shear-wave splitting offer direct observational constraints on seismic anisotropy. Seismic anisotropy in the upper mantle forms primarily from the deformation-induced alignment of intrinsically anisotropic olivine crystals. Under various ambient stress and hydration conditions, different olivine petrofabrics develop that relate the bulk anisotropic fast direction to the orientation of maximum extensional strain. By inferring petrofabric type, shear-wave splitting measurements can directly constrain the geometry of deformation in the upper mantle and thus provide insight into the impact of complex slab geometry on mantle dynamics.

Our findings detail a complex regional pattern of mantle flow as the result of three interacting flow components: (1) entrained trench-perpendicular corner flow in the mantle wedges above sinking plates, (2) mantle flow through the Caldas Tear, and (3) trench-parallel flow far east of both subducting plates. Measured splitting delay times far exceed those expected from lithospheric anisotropy alone and thus support a deeper anisotropic source. Additionally, we observe strong back azimuthal variations in splitting measurement quality and quantity that demand further investigation. Future work will explore constraining lateral and vertical anisotropic complexity simultaneously using splitting intensity tomography.

How to cite: Carchedi, C., Wagner, L., and Monsalve, G.: Flow through a slab tear? Lateral variations in seismic anisotropy beneath the Colombian Andes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1431, 2026.

EGU26-2307 | ECS | Orals | GD3.1

Depth rotations of azimuthal seismic anisotropy associated with relative importance of Couette/Poiseuille flow in the asthenosphere 

Zhirui Ray Wang, Clinton P. Conrad, Sergei Lebedev, Giampiero Iaffaldano, and John R. Hopper

Azimuthal seismic anisotropy in the upper mantle is crucial for understanding the spatial patterns of past and present upper mantle deformation. Traditional interpretation of such anisotropy attributes to relative shear between surface plates and mantle. This requires the orientation of anisotropy azimuths to remain constant with depth. However, inferences of azimuthal anisotropy based on surface wave tomographic models often reveals depth-dependent azimuths. To this end, the existence of mechanically weak, thin asthenosphere beneath the lithosphere facilitates the channelization of plate-driven Couette flow and pressure-driven Poiseuille flow. The combination of two flows, especially when misaligned, yields depth rotations of asthenospheric shear. This provides a geodynamically plausible link between asthenospheric flow properties and depth rotations of azimuthal seismic anisotropy. In this submission, we utilize publicly available azimuthal seismic anisotropy models together with predictions from a global mantle flow model that incorporates Couette/Poiseuille flow. We find that Poiseuille flow profoundly affects depth rotations of seismically inferred azimuthal anisotropy. Prominent depth rotations are under the Atlantic basin and the Nazca plate, where Poiseuille flow dominates the modeled asthenospheric flow regime. Significant Poiseuille flow may exist beneath the Indian basin, yet with small depth rotation, probably because of its directional alignment with Couette flow. Our results indicate that interpretation of azimuthal seismic anisotropy cannot be simply tied to relative shearing between plates and mantle. Instead, the relative importance of Couette and Poiseuille flows must be taken into account.

How to cite: Wang, Z. R., Conrad, C. P., Lebedev, S., Iaffaldano, G., and Hopper, J. R.: Depth rotations of azimuthal seismic anisotropy associated with relative importance of Couette/Poiseuille flow in the asthenosphere, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2307, 2026.

EGU26-3092 | Orals | GD3.1 | Highlight

Seismic anisotropy measurements within AdriaArray: a review of previous and new data 

Silvia Pondrelli, Julia Rewers, Piotr Środa, Katarina Zailac, Josip Stipčević, and Simone Salimbeni

The central Mediterranean area is a place where seismic anisotropy measurements have been collected for years, mainly along the Italian peninsula. Several different techniques have been applied to obtain this information, that carries relevant indications on the state of deformation at depth, both in the Earth’s crust and in the mantle. The most common type of measurements comes from the analysis of shear wave splitting of core phases (*KS), and from splitting intensity measurements. Seismic anisotropy patterns are a major support in answering questions such as where tectonic plates are actively deforming and which processes drive plate deformation. These are some of the questions addressed by the AdriaArray project. The seismic experiment AdriaArray aimed to densify the collection of seismographic data to the east with respect to the Adriatic microplate. The area covered by the project spans from southern France to the Black Sea in longitude and from Central Europe to the central Mediterranean in latitude, reaching the Sicily channel and the Hellenic Trench. Part of this wide area is already well studied for seismic anisotropy, as previously obtained data show. However, AdriaArray acquired data from 950 permanent and temporary broad-band stations thanks to the cooperation of nearly 40 institutions (https://orfeus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/adria_array_main.html) and most of them, located in the eastern part of AdriaArray study region, are now under analysis. Within the project, a Collaborative Research Group dedicated to seismic anisotropy has been created. It is working on building a dataset of shear-wave splitting measurements by improving already produced results with new data. The same has been done with splitting intensity measurements, with ongoing analyses for regions such as Sardinia, the eastern Adriatic coast and further east.

How to cite: Pondrelli, S., Rewers, J., Środa, P., Zailac, K., Stipčević, J., and Salimbeni, S.: Seismic anisotropy measurements within AdriaArray: a review of previous and new data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3092, 2026.

The Slave craton in northwest Canada is characterized by thick, cold, depleted lithosphere, and its surface geology includes some of the oldest rocks on the planet. In addition, the central Slave has proven economic importance, with a thriving diamond industry fed by suites of Miocene kimberlites. Previous studies of Slave craton architecture and anisotropy suggested a stratified lithosphere within the central Slave, likely associated with craton formation processes and subsequent metasomatism.

Since the original shear-wave splitting studies carried out in the central Slave craton, new seismograph installations have been carried out which permit an expanded view of the architecture of the craton as a whole, as well as its margins. Here we measure (or remeasure) shear wave splitting parameters for the complete dataset, which spans up to three decades for the longest-running stations. This systematic approach allows for a comprehensive comparison of anisotropic parameters across the craton.

Preliminary results suggest that NE-SW fast-polarization orientations dominate the craton at a large scale, though with significant local variability in the central Slave, suggesting lateral variability in lithospheric properties. We look for azimuthal variations in splitting measurements that may indicate stratified anisotropy, and we compare the results with models of azimuthal anisotropy from recent surface wave tomography studies.

How to cite: Darbyshire, F. and Dave, R.: Seismic anisotropy in the Slave craton, northern Canada: inferences from a new shear-wave splitting compilation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3197, 2026.

EGU26-3264 | Posters on site | GD3.1

Crustal structural and anisotropy in northeastern Tibetan Plateau from receiver functions 

Ruiqing Zhang and Yixiong Hua

Abstract

Deformation in northern (NE) Tibet is essential for understanding the geodynamic processes of crustal thickening and outward growth associated with the Indo-Asian collision. We analyze receiver function data recorded by the regional seismic array of ChinArray-Ⅱ and permanent stations of the study region. The crustal thickness and Vp/Vs ratio are estimated using the H–κ grid searching technique (Zhu et al., 2000) . We also perform a joint analysis of Pms from radial and tangential receiver functions to measure fast polarization direction and splitting time (Liu et al., 2012). The harmonic analysis is adopted to obtain reliable crustal azimuthal anisotropy (Sun et al., 2012). Our result shows that the crust is significantly thickened (≥50 km) west of ~103°, while the Vp/Vs ratio is relatively low (~1.73) beneath the Qilian orogeny. We also found measurements of crustal azimuthal anisotropy beneath 71 stations in which the Pms arrivals with a dominant degree-2 back azimuth variations. The crustal anisotropy shows a north-south change across the Longshoushan fault. The measured splitting time in the region south of the Longshoushan fault is 0.22-1.02 s (with an average of 0.46 s). The fast direction mainly along the NW direction is roughly close to the fast polarization from XKS (Chang et al., 2021), which is parallel to the trending of the Qian orogenic belt, indicating a vertically coherent lithospheric deformation beneath the NE Tibet. To the north, the Alxa block exhibits a NNE-NE fast polarization with an average delay time of ~0.47s. Such observation differs from the fast-axis direction of mantle anisotropy, indicating that the crust and lithospheric mantle are decoupled. The north-south variation in crustal anisotropy of our study area may suggest that the growth front of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau may have extended to the Longshoushan fault.

 

Acknowledgments

Seismic data of the ChinArray was provided by the International Earthquake Science Data Center at Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration (https://doi.org/10.11998/ IESDC). Seismic waveforms recorded by the permanent stations of the China National Seismic Networks can be downloaded from the National Earthquake Data Center, China Earthquake Administration (https://data.earthquake.cn/) (Zheng et al., 2010). This research was supported by the NSF of China (42030310, 42474133).

 

References

Zhu, L., & Kanamori, H. 2000. Moho depth variation in southern California from teleseismic receiver functions. J. Geophys. Res., 105(B2), 2969–2980.

Liu H., Niu F., 2012. Estimating crustal seismic anisotropy with a joint analysis of radial and transverse receiver function data. Geophys. J. Int., 188: 144–164.

Sun Y., Niu F., Liu H., et al. 2012. Crustal structure and deformation of the SE Tibetan plateau revealed by receiver function data. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 349-350: 186–197.

Chang L., Ding Z., Wang C., 2021. Upper mantle anisotropy and implications beneath the central and western North China and the NE margin of Tibetan Plateau. Chin. J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 64(1):114-130.

How to cite: Zhang, R. and Hua, Y.: Crustal structural and anisotropy in northeastern Tibetan Plateau from receiver functions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3264, 2026.

EGU26-3503 | Posters on site | GD3.1

Singularity points in multi-layered anisotropic medium  

Alexey Stovas

The slowness surfaces for P, S1 and S2 waves in anisotropic medium are defined by solving the Christoffel equation. The regular point on the slowness surface can be mapped on corresponding group velocity surface. The irregular (singularity) point on the slowness surface results in the plane curve in the group velocity domain (Stovas et al., 2024).

The characteristic equations for double and triple singularity points define the tangent cone of second and third order, respectively. If the plane wave passes through singularity points in some layers of multilayered model, the effective characteristic equation has order given by product of orders of characteristic equations from individual layers. Therefore, the order of effective characteristic equation can be computed as N=2K3L, where K and L are the number of layers with double and triple singularity points, respectively. The effective characteristic polynomial FN(Δp1,Δp2,Δp3)  (the N-th order tangential cone) for multi-layered model can be computed by resultant of individual characteristic polynomials,where Δpj,j=1,2,3, are the increments in slowness projections.The number of individual branches is given by J=Floor[(N+1)/2]. The dual curve ΦM (V1,V2,V3)=0 is the group velocity umage of Nth-order singularity point, where M=N(N-1)-2n-3c (Quine, 1982), with n and c being respectively the number of nodes and cusps for curve FN=0. It is shown that the tangential cone does not have cusps (c=0) but can have nodes if N≥6. The inflection points and bitangents for curve FN=0 respectively result in cusps and nodes for dual curve ΦM=0. The cusps affect the Gaussian curvature computed in vicinity of singularity point (Stovas et al., 2025). The irregularities in phase and group domain are illustrated in Figure by dots for two-layer model with double singularity points in both layers (N=4, J=2, n=2 and M=8).

Figure. Two-layer model with double singularity points. a) Curve F4=0 in affine plane (phase domain). Four inflection points on converted wave branch are shown by black dots. Two bitangents are shown by dotted lines limited by gray dots. b) Group velocity image (Φ8=0) of quartic singularity point (dual curve). Four cusps are shown by black dots, and two nodes are shown by gray dots. Solid and dashed lines stand for pure wave modes (S1S1 and S2S2) and converted (S1S2 and S2S1) waves, respectively.

References

Stovas, A., Roganov, Yu., and V. Roganov, 2024, Singularity points and their degeneracies in anisotropic media, Geophysical Journal International 238 (2), 881- 901.

Stovas, A., Roganov, Yu., and V. Roganov, 2025, Gaussian curvature of the slowness surface in vicinity of singularity point in anisotropic media, Geophysical Journal International 240 (3), 1917-1934.                                                                    

Quine, J.R., 1982, A Plücker equation for curves in real projective space, Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society, 85, no.1, 103-107.

How to cite: Stovas, A.: Singularity points in multi-layered anisotropic medium , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3503, 2026.

EGU26-4099 | Orals | GD3.1

Mapping upper-mantle fabric at continental scale: frozen tectonics and active flow patterns in western Canada 

Andrew Frederiksen, Christian Phillips, and Yu Gu

Teleseismic shear-wave splitting is a widely-used technique for measuring oriented fabric in the crust and upper mantle; such fabric is an important marker for current or past deformation. The technique yields both the orientation (fast direction) and cumulative intensity (split time) of the net fabric. However, published splitting results, particularly split times, can have puzzling inconsistencies that make mapping splitting over large areas challenging; semivariograms of compiled splitting results show a lack of spatial coherence in split time measurement when studies using different methods are combined. I present modelling work that demonstrates that these inconsistencies result from an inherent bias in splitting measurement, particularly pronounced for split time, that is sensitive to details of the data processing methods and is amplified by averaging single-event measurements. With a correct choice of averaging method (error-surface stacking), this bias can be mitigated sufficiently to allow split time to be mapped over large areas, as demonstrated using compiled data from western Canada. The results show strong spatially-coherent variations along the strike of the Cordillera, which may represent regions of dominant vertical vs. horizontal flow in the upper mantle, driven by complex Cordilleran active tectonics.

How to cite: Frederiksen, A., Phillips, C., and Gu, Y.: Mapping upper-mantle fabric at continental scale: frozen tectonics and active flow patterns in western Canada, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4099, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4099, 2026.

EGU26-4243 | Orals | GD3.1

Subslab flow beneath subduction zones revealed by multiple-layer shear wave splitting inversion 

Ban-Yuan Kuo, Cheng-Chien Peng, and Jean-Paul Montagner

Shear wave splitting is widely used to probe seismic anisotropy, but its depth resolution is limited. Building on the formulation of Silver and Savage (1994), we apply a Bayesian inversion that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in shear-wave polarization orientation (θ) to resolve multilayer anisotropy from splitting parameters. We apply this approach to source-side S and SKS data from the Cocos subduction zone, and to SKS data from station NNA above the South America subduction zone and station SNZO at the southern Hikurangi margin. Subduction in all three regions is shallow to flat, minimizing dip-angle effects on SKS. The inversion yields tightly constrained fast directions for both upper and lower anisotropic layers. Three-layer inversions show progressive rotation with depth consistent with two-layer solutions, but are not required by the data. In the Cocos system, the upper-layer fast direction is unambiguously aligned with Cocos plate motion in the NNR reference frame, consistent with subduction-entrained flow. In contrast, beneath NNA and SNZO, the upper and lower layers exhibit trench-subparallel and trench-normal anisotropy, respectively—opposite in layering sense to the poloidal–toroidal flow structure predicted by dynamic models. If both layers reside in the subslab mantle, the trench-parallel upper layer flow would decouple the deeper mantle from the slab, raising questions about how the apparent subduction-driven flow is maintained at depth. Alternatively, the upper layer may reflect deformation within or above the slab. Possible sources of trench-parallel anisotropy include frozen-in oceanic lithospheric fabrics, trench-parallel mantle-wedge flow, or inherited fabrics related to nearby continental shear zones. These results highlight the complexity of subslab dynamics and demonstrate the value of probabilistic multilayer inversion for interpreting shear-wave splitting.

 

How to cite: Kuo, B.-Y., Peng, C.-C., and Montagner, J.-P.: Subslab flow beneath subduction zones revealed by multiple-layer shear wave splitting inversion, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4243, 2026.

The recent increase in seismic activity in the southern Sichuan Basin has attracted substantial public interest and simultaneously provides an important opportunity to investigate upper crustal anisotropy, which offers key constraints on the regional stress field and crustal deformation. In this study, we obtained 1,845 high-quality local shear-wave splitting measurements from 15 stations, along with 2,027 null measurements from 19 stations. The results reveal a single anisotropic layer characterized by a horizontal symmetry axis at depths of approximately 3–7 km. The fast polarization directions exhibit clear spatial variability, which is primarily controlled by the spatial distribution of earthquakes rather than temporal evolution. Near the Baimazhen Syncline, the fast polarization directions align with the strike of the strata and form a circular pattern around the synclinal core, indicating that the anisotropy in this region is dominantly structure-controlled. In contrast, stations located in the southern Weiyuan Anticline and the western Baimazhen Syncline display fast directions of N171.7°E and N45.9°E, respectively. These orientations are consistent with the P axes derived from earthquake focal mechanisms, suggesting that anisotropy in these areas is primarily governed by the regional stress field. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of the complex geological framework of the southern Sichuan Basin and underscores the need for caution when interpreting potential temporal variations in seismic anisotropy in future investigations. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42374124).

How to cite: Qiang, Z., Wu, Q., and Li, Y.: Spatial Heterogeneity of Upper Crustal Anisotropy in the Southern Sichuan Basin (China) Revealed by Local Shear-Wave Splitting, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4419, 2026.

EGU26-4571 | ECS | Posters on site | GD3.1

Seismic anisotropy analysis across Southwestern Australia reveals ENE‐trending lithospheric architecture linked to Archean Yilgarn Craton formation 

Miriam Gauntlett, Caroline Eakin, Nitarani Bishoyi, Ping Zhang, John-Paul O'Donnell, Ruth Murdie, Meghan Miller, Robert Pickle, and Reza Ebrahimi

The southwest region of Western Australia is one of the oldest continental regions on Earth, hosting the Archean Yilgarn Craton, bounded by the Proterozoic Albany-Fraser and Pinjarra orogens. Here we calculate shear wave splitting of the PKS and SKS teleseismic phases using stations from Phases 1 and 2 of the WA Array (average station spacing 40 km), as well as other temporary and permanent networks in the study region. We find evidence for coherent seismic anisotropy, with the regional average delay time (1.24 ± 0.62 s) comparable to the global average, δt = 1 s. Although fast polarization orientations show variation, they are not aligned with current plate motion and the expected asthenospheric flow direction. In the South West Terrane, fast polarization orientations match the trend of ancient structural faults. By contrast, structural faults in the Youanmi Terrane and the Eastern Goldfields Superterrane are oriented at an angle compared to the E–W and NE–SW fast polarizations. Instead, the seismic anisotropy pattern shows a striking similarity to E–W trending Precambrian (2.42 Ga) dykes that extend uninterrupted across the Yilgarn Craton. We propose that lithospheric fabrics frozen-in at the time of craton formation (~2.76–2.65 Ga) generated a mechanical weakness which subsequently influenced the orientation and emplacement of the dykes. Further evidence for a similar, ancient (~2.73 Ga) architectural fabric comes from recent isotope geochemistry analysis of primary ENE-trends within the Yilgarn Craton. Overall, these results point toward large-scale, fossilized lithospheric fabric within the Yilgarn Craton, preserved for over two billion years, offering a unique window into the formation and early evolution of the continent. 

How to cite: Gauntlett, M., Eakin, C., Bishoyi, N., Zhang, P., O'Donnell, J.-P., Murdie, R., Miller, M., Pickle, R., and Ebrahimi, R.: Seismic anisotropy analysis across Southwestern Australia reveals ENE‐trending lithospheric architecture linked to Archean Yilgarn Craton formation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4571, 2026.

EGU26-5755 | Posters on site | GD3.1

Mapping the Ivrea Geophysical Body and its anisotropic properties beneath the Western Alps using receiver functions analysis 

Judith Confal, Silvia Pondrelli, Simone Salimbeni, and Nicola Piana Agostinetti

We constrain the extent and anisotropic properties of the Ivrea Geophysical Body (IGB) beneath the Western Alps using receiver function (RF) analysis of 66 teleseismic datasets. The IGB represents one of the most prominent examples of shallow mantle material within continental crust, yet its geometry, composition, and tectonic significance remain debated beyond its well-known positive gravity anomaly. Using teleseismic waves recorded from temporary seismic deployments and permanent seismic networks across the western Alps, we perform a comprehensive receiver function (RF) analysis that indicates the presence of anisotropic mantle materials at shallow depth, associated with the occurrence of the IGB, in terms of P-to-s converted energy out of the radial plane. We characterise the anisotropic rock volumes solving an inverse problem using a Neighbourhood Algorithm. The results indicate that 35 out of 66 RF data-sets from this study, together with five additional stations from a previous study, display coherent anisotropic characteristics directly above the high-gravity anomaly and can be associated with the IGB. These stations exhibit strong anisotropy (~15%) and a coherent fast-axis pattern that systematically rotates from south to north, following the arcuate geometry of the Alpine trench. The depth distribution of the anisotropic interfaces constrains the IGB as a continuous lithospheric-scale body approximately 170 km long, 30-50 km wide, and 20-45 km thick, with its upper boundary as shallow as 1 km depth. The whole body is slightly dipping towards the East. Seismic velocities and anisotropy magnitudes indicate a dominantly mantle-derived composition, consistent with a peridotitic protolith variably overprinted by serpentinite-rich shear zones. Our results refine the three-dimensional extent of the IGB and demonstrate that its anisotropic fabric records the deformation associated with Alpine subduction, slab rollback, and subsequent exhumation, providing new constraints on the tectonic evolution of the western Alpine lithosphere.

How to cite: Confal, J., Pondrelli, S., Salimbeni, S., and Piana Agostinetti, N.: Mapping the Ivrea Geophysical Body and its anisotropic properties beneath the Western Alps using receiver functions analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5755, 2026.

EGU26-5995 | Orals | GD3.1

Radial anisotropy of the upper mantle 

Sergei Lebedev, François Lavoué, Nicolas L. Celli, and Andrew J. Schaeffer

The enigmatic radial anisotropy of the upper mantle remains difficult to resolve. Recent global models show strong disagreements and suggest different inferences on mantle dynamics and evolution. Here, we present a new radially and azimuthally anisotropic shear-wave velocity model of the upper mantle, LLCS-2026, and validate its key patterns using independent seismic and thermodynamic phase-velocity inversions for tectonic-type-average 1D profiles. LLCS-2026 is computed using waveform fits of 1,630,432 seismograms (1,252,717 vertical; 377,715 transverse components). Automated multimode waveform inversion is used to extract structural information from surface and S waveforms in very broad period ranges, from 11 to 450 s, with most data sampling in the 20–350 s period range. The vertical and transverse component waveforms are jointly inverted for the isotropic average shear-wave velocities, their pi-periodic and pi/2-periodic azimuthal anisotropy, and radial anisotropy. Statistical and manual outlier analysis yields a final dataset of 1,009,038 seismograms (765,302 vertical, 243,736 transverse components) that constrains the final model, which captures complex patterns of seismic isotropic and anisotropic structure within the Earth. In agreement with previously published models, prominent low-velocity anomalies indicative of thin lithosphere and partial melting are observed at 20-150 km depth beneath mid-ocean ridges. At 300-400 km, however, high isotropic-average velocities are present in the vicinity of some of the ridges in the Indian and Atlantic oceans. They suggest drips of cold, lithospheric mantle material, probably related to rapid lithospheric cooling in the complex 3D context of triple junctions and ridge-hotspot systems. Radial anisotropy is positive (Vsh > Vsv) at 100-150 km depth everywhere in the mantle, with cratons showing smaller anisotropy compared to other units. Below 200-250 km depth, radial anisotropy is negative (Vsv > Vsh) nearly everywhere. The depth at which the anisotropy sign changes varies with tectonic region. The anisotropy sign flips at the shallowest depth (~200 km) beneath young oceans and continents and at the greatest depth (~250 km, on average) beneath cratons. Radial anisotropy is also negative in the top 50 km of the oceanic lithosphere. Together with azimuthal anisotropy observations, this indicates a complex pattern of crystallographic preferred orientations created by mantle flow beneath mid-ocean ridges, with an interplay between the alignment of crystals due to the vertical flow below the ridge and the lateral flow away from it. Independent seismic (Civiero et al. 2024) and thermodynamic (Lebedev et al. 2024; Xu et al. 2025) inversions of phase-velocity data confirm and validate the anisotropy-sign-flip observations and inferences.

References

Civiero, C., Lebedev, S., Xu, Y., Bonadio, R. and Lavoué, F., 2024. Toward tectonic‐type and global 1D seismic models of the upper mantle constrained by broadband surface waves. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 114, 1321-1346.

Lebedev, S., Fullea, J., Xu, Y. and Bonadio, R., 2024. Seismic thermography. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 114, 1227-1242.

Xu, Y., Lebedev, S. and Fullea, J., 2025. Average physical structure of cratonic lithosphere, from thermodynamic inversion of global surface-wave data. Mineralogy and Petrology, 1-12.

How to cite: Lebedev, S., Lavoué, F., Celli, N. L., and Schaeffer, A. J.: Radial anisotropy of the upper mantle, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5995, 2026.

EGU26-7464 | Posters on site | GD3.1

AlpRA25: a new radial anisotropy model of the Alps from ambient noise and earthquake surface waves 

Thomas Meier, Henrique Berger Roisenberg, Felix Eckel, Amr El-Sharkawy, Claudio Rosenberg, Lapo Boschi, and Fabio Cammarano

The Alps, together with the Northern Apennines and the Northern Dinarides, represent one of the most complex and best-studied examples of continental collision in the world. Over the years, several active and passive seismic experiments have been deployed in the Alpine region. More recently, the installation of large and dense seismic arrays, such as AlpArray and AdriaArray, has provided unprecedented spatial coverage, enabling the development of increasingly detailed seismic velocity models. However, most existing regional models of the Alps primarily rely on isotropic seismic velocities. Radially anisotropic models, which map the parameter ξ = Vsh²/Vsv², provide complementary information by revealing the preferential orientation of anisotropic minerals and structural fabrics produced by past and ongoing tectonic processes.

In this study, we combine ambient noise and earthquake surface-wave data from more than 3,300 permanent and temporary broadband seismic stations to construct a high-resolution Alpine Radial Anisotropy model (AlpRA25) of the crust and upper mantle. Ambient noise data collected between 2017 and 2019 from approximately 700 seismic stations were used to calculate ~46,000 Rayleigh- and ~40,000 Love-wave dispersion curves. These were merged with ~295,000 Rayleigh- and ~200,000 Love-wave dispersion curves obtained from about 6,000 earthquakes recorded at approximately 3,300 broadband seismic stations between 1990 and 2022, resulting in a total of ~295,000 Rayleigh and ~240,000 Love dispersion curves spanning periods from 3 to 250 s.

These data were inverted for phase-velocity maps using a least-squares algorithm with an average knot spacing of 30 km. An a posteriori outlier analysis discarded 15% of the interstation measurements with the highest residuals, after which the model was recomputed. Local dispersion curves were then extracted at each grid node and evaluated for their frequency-dependent roughness. The Rayleigh and Love local dispersion curves were jointly inverted for 1-D shear-wave velocity structure using a particle swarm optimization algorithm, yielding vertical and horizontal shear-wave velocities (Vsv and Vsh, respectively). The final AlpRA25 model is a high-resolution 3-D model of Vsv, Vsh, and ξ from 5 to 250 km depth, covering the Alps, the Northern Apennines, the Northern Dinarides, and the adjacent foreland and back-arc basins. AlpRA25 provides new constraints on the lithospheric architecture and deformation of the Alpine region, highlighting the role of radial anisotropy in imaging tectonic processes from the crust to the upper mantle.

How to cite: Meier, T., Berger Roisenberg, H., Eckel, F., El-Sharkawy, A., Rosenberg, C., Boschi, L., and Cammarano, F.: AlpRA25: a new radial anisotropy model of the Alps from ambient noise and earthquake surface waves, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7464, 2026.

The Haiyuan Fault, a major strike-slip structure in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau margin, is bounded by the first-order Tibetan Plateau and South China blocks, plus the second-order Ordos and Alxa blocks. Seismic anisotropy serves as a robust proxy for probing deep crustal deformation, geodynamic processes, and subsurface seismic structures. We conducted receiver function analyses on teleseismic data from two dense profiles and five broadband stations across the study area; crustal thickness (42–56 km) and Vp/Vs ratios (1.60–1.88) were quantified by the H-κ domain search algorithm, while common conversion point (CCP) imaging delineated the Moho discontinuity across the Haiyuan Arc Fault Zone. Crustal thickening reflects shortening driven by Tibetan-Eurasian collision, with the Haiyuan tectonic evolution linked to high-temperature/pressure regimes induced by Indo-Asian convergence. CCP images reveal a distinct Moho offset and ambiguous continuity beneath the fault zone, confirming it as a Moho-penetrating transcrustal structure associated with intense crustal extrusion from the plateau interior. We characterized multi-scale crustal anisotropy via shear-wave splitting (SWS) analysis of local earthquake data. SWS parameters exhibit clear zoning controlled by the Haiyuan Fault: fast polarization orientations are NNE–NE north of the fault and WNW–EW south of it. Within ~10 km of the fault, fast orientations align with the fault strike (WNW), indicating the fault’s stress influence range spans dozens of kilometers. Enhanced normalized time-delays near the fault signal stronger anisotropy along this strike-slip belt. Upper crustal anisotropy likely arises from crack-induced fabric, whereas middle-lower crustal anisotropy reflects deformation-controlled fabric. Spatial anisotropy patterns imply the combined effects of stress, faulting, and local tectonics. Notably, SWS results suggest the Haiyuan Fault constitutes the actual crustal boundary of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, ~200 km north of the previously reported plateau block boundary.

How to cite: Shi, Y. and Gao, Y.: Crustal Deformation of the Haiyuan Fault Zone Inferred from Dense Seismic Array Observations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8643, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8643, 2026.

EGU26-8791 | Posters on site | GD3.1

Crustal Anisotropy Characteristics in the North China Craton 

Qiong Wang, Yuan Gao, and Geng Liu

    The North China Craton (NCC) exhibits a marked east-west contrast in its present-day tectonic framework. The eastern region  features a thinned lithosphere hosting extensional basins like the Zhangjiakou-Bohai seismic belt and the Shanxi Graben. This area experiences intense crustal deformation and frequent seismicity. Conversely, the western region possesses a thicker lithosphere, greater crustal stability, and weak seismic activity. The central orogenic belt acts as a transitional zone in crust-mantle structure, characterized by dramatic crustal thickness variations, evidence of lithospheric modification, remnants of ancient structures, and is key for studying crust-mantle coupling/decoupling. 
    Crustal anisotropy serves as a crucial indicator for revealing lithospheric deformation. Analysis of seismic wave velocity anisotropy quantitatively constrains crustal stress, assesses fault activity, and infers deep material flow. This provides  essential constraints for seismic hazard assessment and tectonic dynamics research.
    This study utilized local-earthquake data (M>1) from the National Fixed Seismic Network to investigate crustal anisotropy across the NCC using the SAM (Shear-wave splitting Analysis Method) method. The extensive dataset, covering multiple temporal windows of seismic activity, provides strong temporal continuity and spatial coverage for analyzing anisotropy characteristics. Results reveal complex fast-wave polarization directions (FPDs) across the study area. The average FPD (~73°) aligns well with the regional mean maximum horizontal compressive stress (SHmax) direction in the NCC. However, the FPDs also display distinct local features correlating with specific structures, indicating significant local variability in the regional stress field. This manifestation of localized crustal anisotropy characteristics is vital for understanding the region's geodynamic activity. The local stress field variations suggest a heterogeneous crustal stress distribution, likely influenced by multiple geological factors.

How to cite: Wang, Q., Gao, Y., and Liu, G.: Crustal Anisotropy Characteristics in the North China Craton, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8791, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8791, 2026.

EGU26-9651 | ECS | Orals | GD3.1

Multi-scale Seismic Anisotropy of the Rotondo Granite: Linking Deformation Fabrics to Wave Propagation 

Emily Hinshaw, Alberto Ceccato, Alba Zappone, Whitney Behr, and Anne Obermann

We investigate the seismic anisotropy of the Rotondo granite (Gotthard Massif, Swiss Alps) by integrating geological and geophysical data from lab to field scale. We compare our modeled anisotropic properties with decameter measurements from boreholes and kilometer-scale regional seismicity data from the Bedretto Underground Laboratory for Geosciences and Geoenergies, demonstrating clear links between deformation fabrics and observed seismic anisotropy across scales. 

Using field- and micro-scale analyses of deformation styles and fabric orientations, we delineate discrete structural domains characterized by varying strain intensities and fabric types, ranging from isotropic granite to fractured zones or proto-mylonitic shear zones. Proto-mylonitic zones exhibit strong phyllosilicate SPO and higher percentage of Vp anisotropy (~8-27%, range is dependent on compositional variations). Fractured zones vary in frequency within the Rotondo massif and also exhibit elevated Vp anisotropy (>7.5%). For each structural domain, we compute effective elastic stiffness tensors (or 'rock recipes') to characterize their intrinsic seismic velocities. We introduce a new approach for combining multiple lithological “rock recipes” that emphasizes collective impact on bulk anisotropy and spatial context, rather than volume-weighted averaging. 

We observe a scale-dependent shift in anisotropic influence, where the control of ductile fabrics (<20 m) is progressively superseded by fractures as the observational scale increases. When these heterogeneous fabrics are aggregated, destructive interference among strongly anisotropic components reduces the bulk anisotropy to ~2.5%, which is below laboratory measured values. We find good agreement between our theoretical results and cross-borehole effective Vp measurements within the Bedretto Lab. We also find qualitative evidence for anisotropy between event relocation models (e.g. Double Difference or NonLinLoc) of background seismicity in the region at the 1-5 kilometer scale. These results demonstrate consistency in seismic anisotropy estimation across methods and scales, and show the utility of geologically-based anisotropy characterization.

How to cite: Hinshaw, E., Ceccato, A., Zappone, A., Behr, W., and Obermann, A.: Multi-scale Seismic Anisotropy of the Rotondo Granite: Linking Deformation Fabrics to Wave Propagation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9651, 2026.

EGU26-10259 | ECS | Orals | GD3.1

Seismic Anisotropy in the Subducting Slab and Mantle Wedge of the Western Hellenic Subduction Zone from Receiver Functions 

Josefine Ziegler, Stéphane Rondenay, and Nicola Piana Agostinetti

The Western Hellenic Subduction Zone is characterized by a transition from oceanic to continental subduction. The change occurs at the Kephalonian transform fault. However, how this transition takes place at depth remains a topic of discussion. This setting thus provides us with an ideal natural laboratory to investigate how differences in subduction regimes affect the structure and dynamics of the system.
To this end, we compute receiver functions across two seismic arrays from the MEDUSA broadband network, one imaging the oceanic subduction and the other imaging the continental subduction. We computed teleseismic receiver functions and performed harmonic decomposition along both lines. We then inverted these results to image the overriding crust, mantle wedge and slab, in terms of their velocity and anisotropic properties. By comparing the seismic properties of the continental and oceanic slabs, we aim to identify key differences in slab structure, seismic anisotropy, dehydration, and metamorphism between the two subduction regimes.
Preliminary results confirm a dipping low velocity zone in both regimes, corresponding to the slab's crust. Its signal is lost below 60 km in the isotropic component but remains visible to greater depths in the anisotropic component. Furthermore, we identify a low velocity layer within the mantle wedge which could resemble the altered LAB of the overriding plate. What sets the two domains apart is the cutoff depth of the isotropic component of the slab – it can be traced 10 km deeper in the South than in the North – and a generally lower anisotropy in the southern mantle wedge.
Until now the LAB has rarely been observed through conventional receiver function analysis or tomography in subduction zones. We therefore suggest that anisotropic inversion may provide unique insight into the structure of the mantle wedge and the subducting slab.

How to cite: Ziegler, J., Rondenay, S., and Piana Agostinetti, N.: Seismic Anisotropy in the Subducting Slab and Mantle Wedge of the Western Hellenic Subduction Zone from Receiver Functions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10259, 2026.

EGU26-10489 | ECS | Posters on site | GD3.1

3-D Anisotropic Structure of the Upper Mantle beneath the Iranian Plateau Using SKS Splitting Intensity Tomography 

Shiva Arvin, Haiqiang Lan, Ling Chen, Zhaoke Ke, Yi Lin, Li Zhao, and Morteza Talebian

The Iranian plateau, characterized by the Arabia-Eurasia continental collision in the Zagros and the Makran oceanic subduction system, presents a unique opportunity to investigate the underlying processes of lithospheric deformation and upper-mantle dynamics. Previous studies of upper mantle seismic anisotropy, mostly using SK(K)S splitting and occasionally direct S waves revealed complex patterns for the fast axes. The observed rotations of fast axis obtained from S and SK(K)S waves along different tectonic setting, the difference in fast directions between S and SK(K)S phases in central Iran, evidence for two-layer anisotropy, and ambiguity regarding the depth origin of observed anisotropy emphasize the need for further studies. These challenges, together with the pronounced tectonic heterogeneity of the Iranian plateau, call for tomographic approaches that allows for the localization of anisotropic structure. In this study, we utilize SKS splitting intensity tomography to elucidate the depth distribution of the anisotropic properties of the upper mantle beneath the Iranian plateau. Our dataset includes teleseismic events with magnitude above 5.5 and epicentral distances between 90 and 130 degrees recorded by 151 permanent (2015-2021) and 296 temporary seismic stations (2003-2021). We employ a three-dimensional full-wave anisotropy tomography method using splitting intensity, which provides enhanced depth resolution compared to traditional shear wave splitting methods. This method utilizes perturbation theory to establish the linear relationship between splitting intensity and anisotropic parameters, including the azimuth of fast axis and anisotropy strength, and incorporates Green's function databases to efficiently compute the sensitivity or Fréchet kernels. Splitting intensity measurements are inverted to construct a three-dimensional model of upper-mantle azimuthally anisotropic structure beneath the study area. Results show clear lateral differences in anisotropic strength and fast-axis orientation specifically between the Zagros and Alborz regions, as well as the adjacent domains. Vertical profiles illustrate depth-dependent heterogeneous anisotropic structures across the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary into the asthenospheric upper mantle. These variations likely reflect the combined influence of regional tectonic processes, continental collision, lithospheric deformation, and present-day mantle flow patterns beneath the Iranian plateau. Our results highlight the potential of SKS splitting intensity tomography to resolve complex mantle anisotropy and shed new light on the three-dimensional deformation structure of the upper mantle. The observed lateral and depth variations in anisotropy provide new insights into how the relationship between surface tectonics and upper-mantle deformation varies spatially across major tectonic domains such as the Zagros, Makran, Central Iran, and the Alborz.

How to cite: Arvin, S., Lan, H., Chen, L., Ke, Z., Lin, Y., Zhao, L., and Talebian, M.: 3-D Anisotropic Structure of the Upper Mantle beneath the Iranian Plateau Using SKS Splitting Intensity Tomography, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10489, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10489, 2026.

EGU26-10589 | ECS | Posters on site | GD3.1

Seismic Anisotropy Beneath the Dinarides: Implications for Adria-Eurasia Convergence 

Katarina Zailac, Silvia Pondrelli, Simone Salimbeni, and Josip Stipčević

Seismic anisotropy can provide important constraints about deformation processes within the lithosphere and underlying asthenosphere, as well as mantle flow patterns in tectonically complex regions. This study presents observations of seismic anisotropy in the upper mantle beneath the Dinarides and adjacent regions based on teleseismic SKS phase recordings from the AdriaArray temporary deployment, complemented by selected stations from the Croatian permanent seismic network and other available stations in the region. The combined datasets provide improved spatial coverage and allow for a more continuous regional assessment of anisotropic structure beneath the Dinarides.

Seismic anisotropy is investigated using a splitting-intensity approach, applied to teleseismic SKS phases. The splitting intensity quantifies the relative amplitude of the transverse component with respect to the radial component and provides a more robust measure of anisotropic effects. From the azimuthal variation of splitting intensity, the splitting parameters, fast-axis orientation and delay time, can be estimated, enabling direct comparison with earlier shear-wave splitting studies.

The inferred anisotropic pattern beneath the southern Dinarides is regionally coherent with fast axes in the direction perpendicular to the strike of the mountain chain. The fast axes in the Internal Dinarides, on the other hand, are generally pointing in the direction parallel to the strike of the mountain chain, which is also supporting previously published results. New and previously unpublished measurements are presented for stations in the northern Dinarides and in the transitional zone between the Dinarides and the Pannonian Basin, providing improved spatial coverage across this geodynamically important boundary.

This study highlights the importance of dense seismic observations and complementary analysis approaches for resolving anisotropic structures in complex orogenic settings. The expanded dataset and inclusion of splitting intensity measurements provide new constraints on upper-mantle deformation beneath the Dinarides and contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the coupling between lithospheric tectonics and mantle dynamics in the central Mediterranean region. 

How to cite: Zailac, K., Pondrelli, S., Salimbeni, S., and Stipčević, J.: Seismic Anisotropy Beneath the Dinarides: Implications for Adria-Eurasia Convergence, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10589, 2026.

EGU26-11156 | Orals | GD3.1

A review of the sensitivity of seismic wave velocity and attenuation to fracturing 

Nicolas Barbosa, German Rubino, Eva Caspari, and Klaus Holliger

Fractures are ubiquitous throughout the Earth’s upper crust, spanning scales from microscopic cracks to large fault systems. Their hydromechanical behavior plays a critical role in controlling fluid migration in hydrocarbon, geothermal, and groundwater reservoirs, which, in turn, makes fracture detection, characterization, and monitoring an important objective in geoscience and engineering applications. Seismic methods, as indirect and non-invasive tools, have become central to this effort due to their ability to probe fractured media with adequate resolution and depth penetration. This work synthesizes our recent experimental and theoretical advances in the study of seismic characterization of fractured rocks, driven by several key observations. First, most fractured reservoirs exhibit effective seismic anisotropy because fractures often develop preferentially aligned with the local principal stress directions, leading to direction-dependent wave propagation. This anisotropy can be estimated using techniques such as shear-wave splitting, azimuthal velocity variations, and amplitude variations with offset and azimuth. Furthermore, we show that incorporating both fracture-induced and intrinsic background anisotropy, a rather common scenario in fractured environments, into inversion workflows is essential for a robust interpretation. Second, when a seismic wave propagates through a fluid-saturated fractured reservoir, it will be significantly attenuated and dispersed as a result of multiple intrinsic (e.g., inelastic effects due to solid and/or fluid friction effects) and extrinsic (e.g., geometrical spreading) mechanisms. In particular, when a seismic wave propagates through a fluid-saturated porous rock containing fractures, it produces fluid pressure gradients between the more compliant fractures and the stiffer embedding rock as well as between hydraulically connected fractures with different orientations and/or properties. Consequently, fluid flows until the pressure equilibrates, a phenomenon commonly referred to as wave-induced fluid flow (WIFF). This mechanism can alter the effective compliance of the fractures. Such compliance changes can significantly influence velocity and attenuation anisotropy across the seismic frequency range. The dependence of this type of mechanism on the petrophysical properties, fracture-geometry, and distribution makes the analysis of frequency-dependent seismic attributes particularly informative with regard to the hydromechanical properties. [NB2] Third, seismic responses in fractured media are highly sensitive to changes in their stress state, fluid saturation, and geometrical properties, thus, facilitating corresponding monitoring efforts through time-lapse seismic surveys. Finally, highly permeable fractures can often be directly imaged since open fractures with partial surface contacts generally have large mechanical compliance, which, in turn, produces strong scattering of seismic waves. Indeed, there is evidence from full-waveform sonic log data to suggest that the fracture mechanical compliance obtained from P-wave velocity changes and transmission losses correlates with the degree to which fractures are hydraulically open.

How to cite: Barbosa, N., Rubino, G., Caspari, E., and Holliger, K.: A review of the sensitivity of seismic wave velocity and attenuation to fracturing, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11156, 2026.

EGU26-12795 | ECS | Posters on site | GD3.1

Crustal Anisotropy Variations Revealed by Local S-wave Splitting in the Source Region of 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes along the East Anatolian Fault Zone 

Ceyhun Erman, Paola Baccheschi, Seda Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Tuna Eken, and Tuncay Taymaz

The 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet (Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.7) produced an extensive rupture along several segments of the East Anatolian Faults (EAF), and triggered intense aftershock activity in southeastern Türkiye. This seismic sequence therefore provides an exceptional dataset to investigate the crustal anisotropy in such a complex tectonic area. In this study, we evaluated the crustal anisotropy in the source region of these catastrophic earthquakes by conducting a detailed local S-wave splitting (SWS) analysis on a relocated earthquake catalogue. We have performed shear-wave splitting measurements over several thousand local-S waveforms recordings of 31 permanent broadband seismic stations operated by AFAD (Turkish Earthquake Data Center) that were extracted using precise relocation of aftershock activity. After a visual quality control procedure for each splitting analysis, a total of 486 high-quality measurements were obtained. The results reveal a highly heterogeneous anisotropic pattern, with fast direction oriented from N80°W to N79°E and mean fast direction for the whole dataset of N16°E, reflecting the lateral variations in the regional stress field along the EAF, the Sürgü-Çardak Fault (SÇF), and the Malatya Fault. A transition between stress-induced and structure-related anisotropy is clearly identified across different segments of the EAF. Stations in close proximity to the EAF exhibit a dominant structure-induced anisotropic signature, characterized by the strict alignment of FPDs parallel to the fault geometry. Overall, the obtained results provide a comprehensive perspective on how the upper crust responds to substantial stress release, thus offering critical insights into the mechanical behaviour of complex fault networks where the regional collisional stress regimes and strike-slip faulting systems converge.

How to cite: Erman, C., Baccheschi, P., Yolsal-Çevikbilen, S., Eken, T., and Taymaz, T.: Crustal Anisotropy Variations Revealed by Local S-wave Splitting in the Source Region of 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes along the East Anatolian Fault Zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12795, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12795, 2026.

EGU26-13229 | ECS | Posters on site | GD3.1

Joint body- and surface-wave probabilistic transdimensional tomography of upper mantle seismic anisotropy 

Gianmarco Del Piccolo, Joseph Byrnes, James Gaherty, Brandon VanderBeek, Manuele Faccenda, and Andrea Morelli

Body- and surface-wave seismic data provide complementary sensitivities to the anisotropic elastic structure of the Earth, and the potential constraints of a simultaneous inversion would extend significantly beyond those of the individual phases. However, joint body- and surface-wave anisotropic imaging remains limited, mainly because of the high nonlinearity of the problem and the different inversion methods traditionally adopted for body- and surface-wave phases. Here, we implement a nonlinear transdimensional stochastic solver based on the reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm to simultaneously invert P-, S- and Rayleigh-wave data. By sampling irregularly meshed anisotropic velocity models for the upper mantle, with different mesh configurations and complexities adaptable to the heterogeneous data constraints, we populate an ensemble of variable solutions describing the data within the uncertainties. The method is validated using independent synthetic seismograms simulated with SPECFEM3D Globe in an anisotropic upper mantle plume model. We show how the different sensitivities of the data translate into different constraints on upper mantle seismic structure, and we analyze metrics to quantitatively assess uncertainties in the inferred solutions.

How to cite: Del Piccolo, G., Byrnes, J., Gaherty, J., VanderBeek, B., Faccenda, M., and Morelli, A.: Joint body- and surface-wave probabilistic transdimensional tomography of upper mantle seismic anisotropy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13229, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13229, 2026.

Bridgmanite is the most abundant intrinsically-anisotropic constituent of the lower mantle. Its deformation, thus, potentially translates to large-scale anisotropy that would accumulate in high-stress regions, particularly the interaction between subducted materials and the surrounding mantle. While most of the lower mantle is generally considered well-mixed, recent observations suggest structures at mid-mantle depths (800 – 1500 km). Their origin, however, often remains enigmatic. Recent state-of-the-art deformation experiments in bridgmanite at lower-mantle temperatures and pressures reveal a depth-dependent behavior of anisotropy. Coupled with realistic geodynamic models of mantle convection, the large-scale imprint of the depth-dependent fabric reveals a purely deformation-driven seismic discontinuity between 1000 – 1400 km depth that matches observations. The discontinuity appears sharpest in actively deforming regions, and becomes negligible closer to neutral ones. In this work, we investigate its seismic detectability around a subduction zone using three-dimensional global waveform modeling via AxiSEM3D. Given its likely presence across a broad range of frequencies, we assess the suitability of SS precursors for detecting this feature. Enhanced using array seismological methods, results show the presence of SS precursors in the transverse component generated by the anisotropic discontinuity. In addition, a flattened slab geometry produces a shallower SS precursor due to the interface formed between an overlying isotropic slab and an underlying strongly anisotropic (VSH>VSV) layer. We examine the azimuthal dependence of precursor amplitudes and their frequency dependence, with particular emphasis on the microseismic frequency band (~0.05 – 0.25 Hz). In light of these recent findings, we discuss its implications on the nature and origin of mid-mantle discontinuities.

How to cite: Magali, J. K., Yuan, Y., and Thomas, C.: Seismic detectability of a deformation-induced anisotropic discontinuity in the Earth’s lower mantle around a subduction zone using synthetic global modeling of SS precursors, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19103, 2026.

  The conventional hydrocarbon accumulation model in the Xihu Depression is predominantly characterized by “late-stage accumulation.” However, with advancing exploration, the potential occurrence of commercially significant early hydrocarbon charging events in the Paleogene Pinghu Formation has become a subject of considerable debate. This study examines the accumulation mechanisms of natural gas in the Pinghu Formation through an integrated approach incorporating scanning electron microscopy (SEM), systematic fluid inclusion analysis, and natural gas carbon isotope geochemistry, with a particular focus on the evolutionary patterns of authigenic illite within the reservoir.

  SEM observations reveal three distinct morphological types of authigenic illite in the Pinghu Formation reservoirs: honeycomb, bridge-like, and fibrous. The crystallization of these illite types is primarily governed by diagenetic temperature and pore fluid pH: honeycomb illite forms at low temperatures (60 to 110°C) via smectite transformation; bridge-like illite develops at 120 to 140°C in association with acidic dissolution of K-feldspar; and fibrous illite requires temperatures above 140°C and alkaline conditions for the illitization of kaolinite. A key anomaly contradicting conventional diagenetic sequences was identified: in the shallower and cooler Huagang Formation reservoirs, fibrous illite constitutes up to 76% of the illite assemblage, whereas in the deeper and presumably hotter Pinghu Formation reservoirs, honeycomb and bridge-like types dominate (collectively 65%), with markedly reduced overall abundance. This inverse distribution with depth is interpreted as evidence of early hydrocarbon charging during deep burial of the Pinghu Formation. The introduction of acidic hydrocarbons inhibited the transformation of kaolinite to fibrous illite, thereby preserving the earlier illite morphologies and providing direct mineralogical evidence for an early accumulation event during the Huagang Movement.

  Geological analysis further supports the coupling of key elements conducive to early accumulation: during the Huagang Movement, source rocks had reached burial depths sufficient for hydrocarbon generation (Ro ≥ 0.5%), providing a material basis for large-scale expulsion. Concurrently, the superposition of the Yuquan and Huagang movements facilitated the development of structural–lithologic traps. At this stage, the average porosity of the Pinghu Formation reservoirs was approximately 21%, not yet entering the tightening phase, providing high-quality reservoir space for early hydrocarbon filling and accumulation.

  Fluid geochemical data provide additional robust evidence: hydrocarbon inclusions exhibiting yellow fluorescence with homogenization temperatures peaking between 105 and 135°C record an early hydrocarbon charging event. Furthermore, the methane δ¹³C values of Pinghu Formation natural gas (–38‰ to -34‰) are significantly lighter than those of the overlying Huagang Formation (–34‰ to 29‰), consistent with an early-generated, low-maturity gas source, effectively distinguishing fluid origins between early and late accumulation phases.

  Based on the above research, an early accumulation model governed by the combined effects of “paleo-highs and high-quality reservoirs” is established for the Pinghu Formation. This provides a key predictive model for early-stage reservoir exploration in basins with similar geological conditions worldwide, thereby further expanding new exploration frontiers.

How to cite: Li, L. and chen, Z.: Evidence from Illite Crystal Evolution: Exposing the Early Phases and Patterns of Hydrocarbon Accumulation in the Pinghu Formation of the Xihu Depression in the East China Sea., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-58, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-58, 2026.

Rare-earth elements (REE) form indispensable components of daily life, as they are essential constituents of the modern high-technology applications, including clean energy, high-tech electronics, and ultimately to achieve the sustainable development goals of the United Nations. With a growth rate of approximately 10–15% per year, the demand for REE has been increased significantly. However, production and supply chains of REEs are very limited, especially due to the rare occurrences and/or discoveries of REE-enriched deposits. It also invokes an alarming situation, since the REE industry is largely controlled by a small number of countries across the globe, with one holding the dominant position in both mining and processing. Consequently, there is an increasing interest in the REE exploration studies across the globe for finding out new potential sources.

Granitic pegmatites are considered as important sources of rare metals, such as REEs, and other high-field strength elements (HSFE) such as U, Th, Y, Zr, Hf, Nb, Ta and large-ion lithophile element (LILE) such as Li, Rb, and Cs. Here, we report the occurrence of rare-metal granitic pegmatites associated with alkaline granite complex of Munnar in the southern Indian shield. The mineralized pegmatites are intruded along and across the shear planes of granites. The pegmatites are composed of quartz, K-feldspar, plagioclase, biotite and muscovite. Several veins also contain magnetite, pyrite and pyrrhotite. They are characterized by high ΣREEs contents ranging from 1318 ppm to 7682 (avge. 3992 ppm). The chondrite-normalized REE patterns of the pegmatites are characterized by a strong enrichment of LREE over HREE, with a (La/Yb)N ratio between 42 and 1000, with characteristic negative Eu anomalies. The ΣREE of host granites ranges between118 and 6502 ppm. The REE patterns of the pegmatites suggest that the pegmatites are formed from LREE enriched melt, generated possibly during the shearing of host granitic rock. During this process the incompatible REEs are concentrated in the melt causing LREE enrichment, which eventually intruded into the lower curst as granitic pegmatites. This indicates enhanced mobility of REE during alteration of host granites. Thus, the study imposes important insights into the sources and enrichment mechanisms of REEs in the parent rocks as well as their remobilization during alteration processes forming ion-adsorption REE deposits in their weathered crusts.

How to cite: Chettootty, S., Sivankutty, R., and Vasundharan, K.: Rare earth element (REE) enriched granitic pegmatites associated with alkaline granite complex of southern India: Source characteristics, enrichment mechanisms, and insights into potential ion-adsorption REE deposits, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-790, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-790, 2026.

EGU26-3352 | Orals | GD4.2

Numerical geodynamic modelling for natural H2 resource exploration 

Frank Zwaan, Anne C. Glerum, Sascha Brune, Dylan A. Vasey, John B. Naliboff, Gianreto Manatschal, and Eric C. Gaucher

A key challenge in the 21st century is the successful implementation of the energy transition, which hinges on the development of sustainable (energy) resources. In this context, hydrogen gas (H2) generated by natural processes is a promising source of clean energy. However, we urgently need to develop the concepts and exploration strategies for this promise of natural H2 energy to become a reality.

The most likely mechanism of large-scale natural H2 generation in nature is the serpentinization of ultramafic mantle rocks during their chemical reaction with water. In order to predict the bulk serpentinization and natural H2 generation that may lead to the development of exploitable H2 deposits, we consider the following “recipe” for efficient serpentinization, which involves three main ingredients: (1) (fresh) mantle rocks that need to be at (2) optimal temperatures between ca. 200-350˚C (the serpentinization window), and (3) in contact with ample water for the reaction to take place. The serpentinization window can be expected at 8-12 kilometers below the Earth’s surface. However, mantle rocks are normally found at much greater depth; thus these rocks must be brought closer to the surface (exhumed) through geodynamic processes. Moreover, water needs to reach such depths along large faults or other structures that cut into the exhumed mantle. The challenge we are faced with is to understand where (and when) these ingredients may come together in nature, and how much natural H2 may be generated.

Numerical geodynamic modelling is an ideal means to tackle this issue since it allows us not only to test how mantle rocks can be exhumed, but also to trace the temperature conditions and potential water availabilitiy (Zwaan et al. 2025). By combining this information, we assess favorable settings and timing of bulk natural H2 generation in different geodynamic systems. Subsequently, we consider where the natural H2 could be exploited. The serpentinizing mantle source rocks at 8-12 km depth cannot be directly targeted. Ideally, the natural H2 would instead migrate and accumulate in sedimentary reservoir rocks at depths of only a couple of kilometers that are connected with the mantle source rocks via migration pathways (e.g., faults). Importantly, all key elements need to be in place for the system to work.

Our first-order modelling work and the development of natural H2 system concepts greatly helps to direct natural H2 resource exploration efforts, for example in the Alps and Pyrenees. Moreover, substantial opportunity lies in refining both the geodynamic modelling and natural H2 system analysis, in field- and laboratory testing of our H2 system concepts, and in extending such a “mineral system” modelling approach to other types of natural resources that are crucial to the energy transition. 

Reference:

Zwaan, F., Brune, S., Glerum, A.C., Vasey, D.A., Naliboff, J.B., Manatschal, G., & Gaucher, E.C. 2025: Rift-inversion orogens are potential hot spots for natural H2 generation, Science Advances, 11, eadr3418. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adr3418

How to cite: Zwaan, F., Glerum, A. C., Brune, S., Vasey, D. A., Naliboff, J. B., Manatschal, G., and Gaucher, E. C.: Numerical geodynamic modelling for natural H2 resource exploration, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3352, 2026.

EGU26-5509 | ECS | Orals | GD4.2

Numerical modeling of magma migration in lithospheric rocks 

Nima Hosseinian, Juan Carlos Afonso, Alberto García-González, and Sergio Zlotnik

Magma migration is a complex natural process that controls volcanism, the formation of many types of ore deposits, the development of geothermal reservoirs and the thermal structure, and long-term evolution of the lithosphere [1-3]. Because the dynamics of magma migration are difficult to observe directly, numerical simulations provide a powerful tool to investigate magmatic systems, the coupled physiochemical processes involved, and the range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes operate.

In this study, we present a new multi-phase numerical framework to study magma migration within the Earth, with a particular emphasis on the mechanical interactions between melt and solid. The framework is based on multiphase flow in porous media and it incorporates realistic rheological descriptions of lithospheric rocks, including visco-elasto-viscoplastic behavior, damage, strain weakening and the generation of porosity due to plastic deformation. Interaction between the fluid (magma) and solid (host rock) phases are described via a set of equations derived from a formal phase-averaging framework. An arbitrary Eulerian-Lagrangian solver is used to discretize the equations and solve the fully-coupled system. The validity of the model, and its potential to study multi-scale magmatic systems, are demonstrated using well-known benchmark tests and targeted numerical experiments.

Keywords: Dynamics of lithosphere and mantle, Mechanics, Numerical modeling, Physics of magma, Plasticity

REFERENCES

  • [1] Keller, D. A. May, and B. J. Kaus, “Numerical modelling of magma dynamics coupled to tectonic deformation of lithosphere and crust,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol. 195, pp. 1406-1442, (2013).
  • [2] Li, A. E. Pusok, T. Davis, D. A. May, and R. F. Katz, “Continuum approximation of dyking with a theory for poro-viscoelastic-viscoplastic deformation,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol. 234, pp. 2007-2031, (2023).
  • [3] Oliveira, J. C. Afonso, S. Zlotnik, and P. Diez, “Numerical modelling of multiphase multicomponent reactive transport in the Earth’s interior,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol. 212, pp. 345-388, (2018).

 

Acknowledgment

EarthSafe Doctoral Network has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 101120556.

How to cite: Hosseinian, N., Afonso, J. C., García-González, A., and Zlotnik, S.: Numerical modeling of magma migration in lithospheric rocks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5509, 2026.

Eduardo Monsalvea, Claudia Pavez-Orregob, Ángela Floresa, Nicolás Barbosab, Eckner Chaljuba, Rodrigo Palma-Behnkea, Nikolai H. Gaukåsd, Didrik R. Småbråtend, Diana Comtec*.

  • a) Department of Electrical Engineering / Energy Center, Faculty of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
  • b) Department of Applied Geosciences, Geophysics, SINTEF Industry, Trondheim, Norway
  • c) Advanced Mining Technology Center, Faculty of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
  • d) Department of Sustainable Energy Technology, SINTEF Industry, Oslo, Norway

In a global context marked by increasing energy demand and growing constraints on the large-scale deployment of conventional renewable sources, the exploration of alternative energy pathways has become increasingly relevant. Within this framework, vibrational energy harvesting (VEH) has garnered attention due to its potential to exploit ambient energy sources that are typically overlooked, such as mechanical vibrations. In particular, seismic vibrations, both natural and anthropogenic, represent a persistent and spatially distributed energy resource in regions characterized by intense industrial activity and significant seismicity.

This study presents a systematic and replicable methodology for assessing the energy harvesting potential from real seismic vibrations, with a specific focus on high-vibration environments, such as mining areas and urban settings. The proposed framework aims to quantify both the theoretical potential of the vibrational resource, understood as the maximum energy available in the environment, and the technical potential, defined by the current capability of electromagnetic energy harvesters (EMEHs) to capture and convert this energy into usable electrical power.

The developed methodology consists of six main stages: (i) seismic data acquisition, (ii) signal preprocessing, (iii) event identification, (iv) event characterization and classification, (v) device selection, and (vi) dynamic simulation for harvested power estimation. Continuous seismic records are analyzed to detect and isolate energetically relevant events of both natural and anthropogenic origin, including earthquakes, microseisms, blasting activities, and vehicular traffic. These events are characterized in terms of amplitude, frequency content, and duration, providing objective criteria to evaluate their relevance for energy harvesting applications. Representative seismic excitations are subsequently used as non-stationary inputs to a dynamic model of an EMH, enabling the estimation of the harvested power associated with each event type without parameter optimization. This approach allows for a direct comparison between different vibrational sources under realistic operating conditions and highlights the influence of site-specific factors such as local geology, proximity to vibration sources, and spectral characteristics of ground motion.

The application of the proposed framework to a mining environment in northern Chile reveals distinct, yet partially overlapping, ranges of harvestable power across different classes of seismic events. The results demonstrate a strong spatial dependence on the vibrational energy resource and emphasize the necessity of localized assessments when evaluating the feasibility and robustness of vibrational energy harvesting systems. This work contributes a methodological foundation for resource-oriented evaluation, providing quantitative insight into whether seismic vibrations can realistically support low-power applications such as autonomous sensors and monitoring systems.

How to cite: Monsalve, E.: Evaluating Seismic Vibrations as an Energy Resource in Mining and Urban Environments, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5931, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5931, 2026.

EGU26-6024 | ECS | Orals | GD4.2

Toward Efficient Stokes Flow Simulations in Multi-Observable Thermo-Chemical Tomography Using Model Order Reduction 

Mustafa Ramadan, Federico Pichi, and Gianluigi Rozza

The prevalence of viscous-dominated regimes within the Earth’s interior gives rise to Stokes-like flow systems in numerous geodynamical applications. A prominent example is sublithospheric mantle convection, which constitutes the primary driving mechanism behind the evolution of dynamic topography. In this context, numerical simulations provide more physically consistent estimates of the Lithosphere–Asthenosphere Boundary (LAB) depth than those derived from first-order isostatic approximations [1].

However, the associated computational overburden is exceptionally high, particularly when accounting for material nonlinearities. The challenge is further complicated when attempting to incorporate them within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework that requires an exceptionally large number of evaluations [2], limiting their applicability to large-scale studies and underscores the need for novel and computationally efficient Reduced-Order Modeling (ROM) methodologies [3].

Results from linear Model Order Reduction (MOR) techniques indicate that the complexity of the problem surpasses the capabilities of projection-based ROMs designed to produce globally accurate solutions. This work introduces a localized, goal-oriented criterion to enhance linear reducibility and employs Neural Network (NN) surrogates to replace high-fidelity solver evaluations. These methodological advances jointly underpin the development of a hybrid offline–online reduction framework that efficiently reduces computational complexity while preserving the required levels of accuracy, enabling seamless model updates during parameter-space exploration.

 

REFERENCES

[1] Afonso, J. C., Rawlinson, N., Yang, Y., Schutt, D. L., Jones, A. G., Fullea, J., & Griffin, W. L. (2016). 3-D multiobservable probabilistic inversion for the compositional and thermal structure of the lithosphere and upper mantle: III. Thermochemical tomography in the Western-Central U.S. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 121(10), 7337–7370. https://doi.org/10. 1002/2016jb013049

[2] Ortega-Gelabert, O., Zlotnik, S., Afonso, J. C., & Diez, P. (2020). Fast Stokes Flow Simulations for Geophysical-Geodynamic Inverse Problems and Sensitivity Analyses Based on Reduced Order Modeling. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 125(3). https://doi.org/10.1029/ 2019jb018314

[3] Hesthaven, J.S., Rozza, G., Stamm, B. (2015). Certified Reduced Basis Methods for Parametrized Partial Differential Equations. SpringerBriefs in Mathematics. Springer International Publishing AG, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-22470-1

How to cite: Ramadan, M., Pichi, F., and Rozza, G.: Toward Efficient Stokes Flow Simulations in Multi-Observable Thermo-Chemical Tomography Using Model Order Reduction, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6024, 2026.

EGU26-8341 | ECS | Orals | GD4.2

Coupling Bayesian Inversion and Reduced-Order Modeling: Application to Lithosphere–Asthenosphere Boundary Estimation 

Mir Shahzaib, Pedro Díez, Sergio Zlotnik, Alba Muixí, and Macarena Amaya

Geophysical inverse problems are inherently ill-posed due to sparse, noisy, and indirect observations, making Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) a fundamental requirement for reliable subsurface characterization. Bayesian inversion provides a comprehensive probabilistic framework for inferring subsurface parameters by coherently combining prior knowledge with observational data through the likelihood function. However, the practical deployment of Bayesian methods in large-scale geophysical settings is often hampered by the prohibitive computational cost of repeated forward model evaluations. In this context, uncertainty is often not solely driven by observational noise; a substantial and sometimes dominant contribution arises from model error, resulting from simplified physical descriptions, numerical discretization, and uncertain boundary conditions. When these sources of uncertainty are neglected or inadequately represented, Bayesian inversions may yield biased posterior estimates and unrealistically narrow uncertainty bounds. These limitations are particularly acute in deep Earth applications, where complex rheologies, poorly constrained geometries, and computationally intensive forward models coexist.

A key challenge is the accurate delineation of the Lithosphere–Asthenosphere Boundary (LAB), which plays a central role in controlling mantle dynamics, lithospheric deformation, and deep geothermal processes. Despite the necessity of relying on Bayesian approaches to estimate the LAB and its associated uncertainties, the high computational cost of repeated evaluations of the forward solver makes this unfeasible within realistic time frames [1]. To address these limitations, this work investigates Reduced-Order Modeling (ROM) techniques to enable efficient Bayesian inversion of LAB geometry in geodynamical Stokes flow models. ROMs construct low-dimensional surrogates of high-fidelity solvers, allowing rapid forward simulations while preserving the dominant physical behavior of mantle flow. By integrating ROMs with Bayesian inference, the proposed framework enables effective and reliable UQ for LAB characterization.
Keywords: Geophysical inverse problems; Bayesian inversion; Uncertainty Quantification; Reduced-Order Modeling; Lithosphere–Asthenosphere Boundary

Acknowledgement This research was conducted within the EarthSafe Doctoral Network and has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 101120556.

References [1] Olga Ortega-Gelabert, Sergio Zlotnik, Juan Carlos Afonso, and Pedro D´ıez. Fast stokes flow simulations for geophysical-geodynamic inverse problems and sensitivity analyses based on reduced order modeling. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 125(3):e2019JB018314, 2020.

How to cite: Shahzaib, M., Díez, P., Zlotnik, S., Muixí, A., and Amaya, M.: Coupling Bayesian Inversion and Reduced-Order Modeling: Application to Lithosphere–Asthenosphere Boundary Estimation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8341, 2026.

EGU26-9853 | ECS | Posters on site | GD4.2

Toward integrated geodynamic-petrological modelling: coupling ASPECT with thermodynamic calculations  

Arijit Chakraborty, Jeroen van Hunen, Andrew Valentine, Sergio Zlotnik, and Alberto García González

The concentration of critical minerals and metals occurs within 200 km of the transition between thick and thin lithosphere(Hoggard et al., 2020). Understanding the mechanisms behind this distribution requires characterizing a variety of deep Earth processes of different scales and nature. Among these processes, mantle melting is a critical initial step, controlling compositions of early melts and to the stability of cratonic lithosphere. These melting processes are governed by complex phase equilibria which determines proportions and compositions of mineral assemblages, depending on pressure, temperature and bulk composition. 

 We investigate computational strategies for coupling mantle convection codes such as ASPECT with thermodynamic equilibrium calculations tools like MAGEMin. While a direct coupling would provide accurate phase equilibria predictions, it comes at a significant computational cost for large-scale geodynamic models. Our research explores developing surrogate models using machine learning and neural network techniques to approximate these thermodynamic calculations more efficiently. 

We present our preliminary research involving methodological approaches and discuss the computational trade-offs involved in different coupling strategies. A simplified geodynamic model demonstrates potential workflows for this approach. This research is a step towards a more integrated computational framework for a thermo-chemical geodynamic model, which will have important implications for modelling critical mineral formation in complex geodynamic settings. 

References:

  • Hoggard, Mark J., Karol Czarnota, Fred D. Richards, David L. Huston, A. Lynton Jaques, and Sia Ghelichkhan. “Global Distribution of Sediment-Hosted Metals Controlled by Craton Edge Stability.” Nature Geoscience 13, no. 7 (July 2020):504–10.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0593-2 

How to cite: Chakraborty, A., van Hunen, J., Valentine, A., Zlotnik, S., and García González, A.: Toward integrated geodynamic-petrological modelling: coupling ASPECT with thermodynamic calculations , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9853, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9853, 2026.

EGU26-10570 | ECS | Orals | GD4.2

Reducing Computational Costs in 3D Magnetotelluric Simulations via Domain Decomposition and Reduced-Order Modeling 

Luis Tao, Sergio Zlotnik, Alba Muixí, Fabio Ivan Zyserman, Juan Carlos Afonso, and Pedro Diez

Three-dimensional (3D) Magnetotelluric (MT) probabilistic inversion remains rare in real-world applications because it requires solving the forward problem thousands to millions of times, often making the computational cost prohibitive. Since the total duration of an inversion is directly controlled by the performance of the forward solver, the high computational overhead of 3D MT modeling remains a significant challenge, particularly for large-scale problems requiring high mesh resolutions. To address the poor scaling of existing strategies, we introduce DD–POD, a hybrid framework that integrates Domain Decomposition (DD) with Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD). The DD formulation partitions the global problem into subdomains, bypassing the memory limitations of traditional direct solvers and enabling simulations with substantially finer discretizations. Implementing this distributed architecture alone yields simulations that are at least 50% faster than global full-order approaches. Building on this foundation, the integration of POD eliminates the need for repeated large-scale linear system solves within the iterative DD process, delivering total forward-solver speed-ups exceeding 90%. Benchmark experiments and a real-world case study demonstrate that DD–POD consistently outperforms standard global POD strategies in computational efficiency with an acceptable trade-off in numerical accuracy.

(This work was supported by the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions (Doctoral Network with Grant agreement No. 101120556))

How to cite: Tao, L., Zlotnik, S., Muixí, A., Zyserman, F. I., Afonso, J. C., and Diez, P.: Reducing Computational Costs in 3D Magnetotelluric Simulations via Domain Decomposition and Reduced-Order Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10570, 2026.

EGU26-12436 | ECS | Orals | GD4.2

Adaptive parameterization in Bayesian inversions using transdimensional methods 

Arnau Dols, Macarena Amaya, Sergio Zlotnik, and Pedro Díez

Geothermal energy is a crucial component of the global transition to sustainable and green energy systems due to its renewable and long-term availability. In order to study potential resources, we need to describe the subsurface by solving inverse problems. The complexity and uncertainty of these problems require the use of probabilistic inversion approaches that repeatedly solve partial differential equations over a grid of parameters describing the subsurface domain. Frequently, the high dimensionality of the parameter space to be inferred implies prohibitive computational times and reduces the sensitivity of each parameter as the grid is refined. In this work, we implement and discuss adaptive parametrization strategies in Bayesian inversions. We model the thermal conductivity structure of 2D sections of the Earth's upper mantle and perform Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inversions to recover the thermal conductivity as a probability distribution based on the likelihood of the temperature measurements. To verify the solution, we first parametrize the physical properties of the subsurface domain equal to the high-dimensional finite element grid. In order to determine the optimal metaparameters on the run we rely on adaptive MCMC techniques that accelerate the convergence and reduce the risk of getting trapped in local minima. We then use a new parametrization based on the physical structure of the geological faults of the mantle that reduces the dimensionality of the problem. By relying on transdimensional sampling through reversible-jump MCMC, we consider the number of parameters as an unknown of the inversion. In these methods, the algorithm is allowed to increase the number of parameters to invert when the solutions found are not accurate enough and to decrease it when the accuracy of the solution is not significantly affected. Our results show that we recover the thermal conductivity structure both with and without adaptive parametrization, and the performance is improved when using transdimensionality. Moreover, the proposed transdimensional inversion decreases or increases the number of parameters locally, thereby providing an efficient and robust method for addressing the often challenging lack of information on subsurface heterogeneity.

Keywords: geothermal energy; Markov chain Monte Carlo; reversible jump MCMC; transdimensional inversion; adaptive parametrization; finite elements; Poisson equation.

How to cite: Dols, A., Amaya, M., Zlotnik, S., and Díez, P.: Adaptive parameterization in Bayesian inversions using transdimensional methods, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12436, 2026.

EGU26-13256 | Orals | GD4.2

Non-Intrusive POD–RBF Reduced OrderModeling for Parametric and Transient MantleConvection 

Qusain Haider, Niccolò Tonicello, Michele Girfoglio, and Gianluigi Rozza

Mantle convection plays a fundamental role in governing the thermal and dynamical
evolution of terrestrial planets, yet its numerical simulation remains computationally ex-
pensive due to strong nonlinearities, high Rayleigh numbers, and the presence of thin
thermal boundary layers. In this work, we present a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling
(ROM) framework for two-dimensional mantle convection based on Proper Orthogonal
Decomposition combined with Radial Basis Function interpolation (POD–RBF).
High-fidelity full-order model (FOM) simulations are first performed using a finite-
volume discretization of the incompressible Boussinesq equations under the infinite-Prandtl-
number approximation. The FOM is carefully validated across a wide range of Rayleigh
numbers. Particular attention is devoted to high-Rayleigh-number regimes, where mesh
refinement studies are conducted to improve accuracy and ensure reliable reference solu-
tions.
The ROM is constructed from snapshot data of velocity and temperature fields. POD
analysis reveals a rapid decay of singular values, indicating a low-dimensional structure
of the solution manifold. The parametric dependence of the reduced coefficients is recon-
structed using RBF interpolation, yielding a fully data-driven and non-intrusive ROM.
To rigorously assess predictive capability, the ROM is validated using test points ex-
cluded from the training dataset. Leave-One-Out cross-validation demonstrates that the
ROM accurately predicts unseen solutions across the parameter space, with low relative
L2 errors for both velocity and temperature fields. Field-level comparisons confirm that
the dominant flow structures and thermal patterns are faithfully reproduced.
The framework is further extended to transient simulations, where both time and
Rayleigh number are treated as parameters. This two-dimensional parametric unsteady
ROM successfully captures time-dependent dynamics while providing significant compu-
tational speed-up. The proposed approach offers a robust and efficient tool for parametric
mantle convection modeling and provides a solid basis for future extensions toward three-
dimensional configurations and uncertainty quantification.

How to cite: Haider, Q., Tonicello, N., Girfoglio, M., and Rozza, G.: Non-Intrusive POD–RBF Reduced OrderModeling for Parametric and Transient MantleConvection, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13256, 2026.

EGU26-13298 | ECS | Orals | GD4.2

Enabling Probabilistic Full Waveform Inversion in Multi-Observable Thermochemical Tomography through Reduced-Order Spectral Element Modeling 

Ali Jamasb, Juan-Carlos Afonso, Alberto Garcia Gonzalez, Gianluigi Rozza, Federico Pichi, Sergio Zlotnik, Mark van der Meijde, and Islam Fadel

Multi-Observable Thermochemical Tomography (MTT) is a simulation-driven, joint probabilistic inversion framework designed to estimate the thermochemical state of the Earth’s lithosphere by integrating geophysical datasets with complementary sensitivities. By jointly inverting observables such as gravity and geoid anomalies, surface heat flow, seismic dispersion, body-wave data, and magnetotelluric responses, MTT directly estimates primary thermodynamic variables, including temperature, pressure, and bulk composition, from which all secondary physical properties are derived through internally consistent thermodynamic models. This bottom-up approach provides physically-consistent constraints on lithospheric structure across regional to prospect scales.

Within this framework, MTT offers a powerful basis for characterizing lithospheric architecture and compositional domains that are commonly examined in mineral systems studies. In particular, MTT can help delineate major crustal- and lithospheric-scale structures, identify metasomatized/altered domains, and map thermochemical contrasts that serve as lithospheric-scale proxies commonly associated with specific classes of magmatic and hydrothermal mineral systems.

Despite recent advances incorporating ray-based seismic tomography solvers (Fomin, I., Afonso, J. C., Gorbatov, A., Salajegheh, F., Dave, R., Darbyshire, F. A., et al. (2026). Multi-observable thermochemical tomography: New advances and applications to the superior and North Australian cratons. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 131, e2025JB031939. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JB031939 ), the integration of full-waveform seismic solvers within the MTT framework has not yet been achieved. Full-waveform inversion (FWI) offers enhanced sensitivity to both seismic velocity and density and the potential for improved spatial resolution relative to traditional tomography approaches. However, the computational cost of FWI remains prohibitive, particularly in probabilistic or ensemble-based inversion settings required for uncertainty quantification.

This contribution presents a computational strategy aimed at reducing the cost of full wavefield simulations to enable probabilistic seismic FWI within the MTT framework. We extend reduced-order modeling (ROM) techniques to the spectral element method (SEM), which is widely used for accurate time-domain seismic wave propagation in complex geological settings. Specifically, we consider projection (Galerkin)–based ROMs in which the SEM wavefield is approximated in a low-dimensional reduced basis constructed from representative high-fidelity solutions. While ROM approaches are well established for simpler formulations, their application to SEM-based elastic wave simulations remains challenging due to the method’s high dimensionality and complex operator structure. Beyond MTT, such reductions are also relevant to SEM-based workflows that require large numbers of forward simulations, including ground motion studies and FWI with many sources at regional-to-global scales.

We develop and test a reduced-order SEM formulation using synthetic benchmark models relevant to lithospheric-scale imaging. Results demonstrate computational speed-ups of up to two orders of magnitude relative to full SEM simulations, while retaining sufficient accuracy in simulated wavefields for inversion purposes. These results represent a first proof of concept toward incorporating probabilistic FWI into multi-observable thermochemical tomography and reducing a key computational barrier to uncertainty-aware, physics-based lithospheric imaging.

How to cite: Jamasb, A., Afonso, J.-C., Garcia Gonzalez, A., Rozza, G., Pichi, F., Zlotnik, S., Meijde, M. V. D., and Fadel, I.: Enabling Probabilistic Full Waveform Inversion in Multi-Observable Thermochemical Tomography through Reduced-Order Spectral Element Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13298, 2026.

EGU26-13600 | Posters on site | GD4.2

 Hydro-mechanical parameter estimation in earthfill dams using reduced-order models 

Sergio Zlotnik, Jan Schrader, Jarin Beatrice, Alberto García González, and Alba Muixí

The identification of hydro-mechanical parameters governing earthfill dam behaviour under transient loading conditions is essential for reliable interpretation of monitoring data and predictive analysis. Although coupled flow–deformation models can represent these processes in detail, their direct use in inverse analyses is often prohibitive due to the large number of forward simulations required. This work addresses the efficient estimation of material parameters in earthfill dams by integrating a reduced-order formulation of the problem into an inverse strategy.

A transient, nonlinear hydro-mechanical model for unsaturated soils is considered in the context of a sensor-driven inverse problem, where piezometric measurements are used to constrain model parameters. Reduced-order models based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) are introduced to enable repeated model evaluations within the inversion procedure while retaining the key features of the hydro-mechanical response. The framework targets the estimation of relevant soil properties, such as hydraulic conductivity, water retention characteristics, and mechanical stiffness, and is illustrated using both synthetic observations and field piezometer data from the Glen Shira dam during rapid drawdown events.

REFERENCES

[1]  Pinyol, N. M., Alonso, E. E., Olivella, S. (2008). Rapid drawdown in slopes and embankments. Water Resources Resarch, 44(5). doi: 10.1029/2007WR006525

[2]   Nasika, C., Díez, P., Gerard, P., Massart, T.J., Zlotnik, S. (2022). Towards real time assessment of earthfill dams via Model Order Reduction. Finite Elements in Analysis & Design, 199: 103666. doi: 10.1016/j.finel.2021.103666

How to cite: Zlotnik, S., Schrader, J., Beatrice, J., García González, A., and Muixí, A.:  Hydro-mechanical parameter estimation in earthfill dams using reduced-order models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13600, 2026.

EGU26-13610 | ECS | Posters on site | GD4.2

Hyper-reduced POD formulation for the hydro-mechanical assessment of tailings dams 

Alba Muixí, Lluís Monforte, Alberto García-González, and Sergio Zlotnik

The reliable assessment of tailings dam response under transient hydro-mechanical loading is a key challenge for mining infrastructure safety and risk management. High-fidelity numerical models capable of representing coupled groundwater flow and deformation in partially saturated soils provide valuable insight into internal states of the dam, but their computational demands often limit their use in operational settings, such as scenario analysis or near–real-time monitoring.

We consider a transient, nonlinear hydro-mechanical finite element model describing groundwater flow in unsaturated soils and apply a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD)–based reduced-basis formulation to accelerate simulations. While POD effectively reduces the number of unknowns, the computational cost of assembling nonlinear operators remains tied to the full-order mesh dimension, limiting efficiency gains. To address this bottleneck, hyper-reduction techniques are investigated that construct reduced approximation spaces for the nonlinear terms themselves, with the goal of alleviating computational cost relative to standard full-order finite element simulations.

How to cite: Muixí, A., Monforte, L., García-González, A., and Zlotnik, S.: Hyper-reduced POD formulation for the hydro-mechanical assessment of tailings dams, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13610, 2026.

EGU26-15494 | ECS | Posters on site | GD4.2

Seismic Super-resolution Leveraging Machine Learning Techniques  

Mukthar Opeyemi Mahmud, Andrew P. Valentine, Anne K. Reinarz, and Jeroen van Hunen

Earth imaging is central to our ability to understand our planet and is important for exploration of critical minerals, geothermal energy resources detection, and mitigation of natural hazards such as earthquakes and the study of plate tectonics. As a result, there is a need for more precise images of the earth’s interior. However, as this imaging process is ill-posed and lossy, the images obtained are inevitably a blurry version of the truth. This makes it challenging to robustly interpret results and draw inferences about geophysical systems.  

 

The full waveform inversion (FWI) has been the state-of -the-art for high-fidelity and physically consistent subsurface imaging, however, its computational expense has driven exploration into machine learning (ML) techniques. These data-driven ML techniques can perform seismic inversion, directly mapping seismic data to subsurface properties without executing the iterative physics modelling loop of FWI. While their success is highly dependent on the availability of comprehensive, high-quality training data, they have proven capable of delivering subsurface predictions orders of magnitude faster than traditional methods.

 

In our attempt to obtain physically consistent subsurface images while ensuring cheap inferences, we will explore opportunities for ‘seismic super-resolution’: generation of higher-resolution images by combining observed data with prior knowledge about likely structures and the physics of wave propagation. Our approach involves the combination of machine learning techniques for numerical upscaling and physics – informed neural networks ensuring that the underlying laws of physics are embedded within results.  

 

In this presentation, we will highlight some of the challenges and opportunities in this approach  

and present some early results from numerical experiments.

How to cite: Mahmud, M. O., Valentine, A. P., Reinarz, A. K., and Hunen, J. V.: Seismic Super-resolution Leveraging Machine Learning Techniques , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15494, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15494, 2026.

In mineral exploration, on-site analytical techniques provide tools for real-time data acquisition, supporting informed decision-making. Portable instruments such as handheld X-ray fluorescence (pXRF) and short-wave infrared (SWIR) hyperspectral spectrometers enable rapid, non-destructive collection of geochemical and mineralogical information directly from drill cores. When effectively integrated and interpreted, these datasets offer powerful tools for advancing geological understanding and refining 3D models, ultimately improving vectoring toward mineralization and supporting more efficient, sustainable exploration

Where traditional interpretation methods are often subjective and time-consuming, data-driven approaches, particularly machine learning, can identify patterns and correlations within large datasets, accelerating analysis. In this study, we propose a machine learning framework for fusing drill-core hyperspectral and geochemical point data to enhance geological modeling.

Methodologies were applied and tested in two gold target sites hosted by an Archean Ilomantsi Greenstone Belt in eastern Finland. The geology at the selected sites is dominated by visually homogeneous schistose metasediments exhibiting intense sericite–chlorite alteration. Hence, these target areas provide an ideal natural environment for evaluating machine-learning approaches aimed at refining lithological and lithogeochemical discrimination and alteration mineralogy interpretations. The data-fusion and predictive modeling approach has the potential to significantly extend the data-driven geological models in 3D to enhance geological understanding and controls of the Au mineralization.

Lithogeochemical data were first partitioned into distinct compositional groups using the K-means clustering algorithm. The resulting cluster assignments served as training labels for a supervised learning framework aimed at linking geochemical classes to hyperspectral signatures. Selected SWIR spectral parameters corresponding to geochemical sampling points, together with their assigned labels, were used to train a Random Forest (RT) classifier. The trained model was applied to unclassified spectral data to infer lithogeochemical classes to produce a predictive model.

Despite the generally noisy nature of both pXRF and spectral point data and overall, rather poor probability measures of the RT model (< 50% for most classes), in 3D, a clear and spatially reasonable model is produced. Along-strike continuation of lithogeochemical stratigraphy provides a validation argument supporting the success of the predictive model beyond areas with both lithogeochemical and hyperspectral data.

This approach leverages existing drill holes in a fast and cost-efficient manner by utilizing portable data-acquisition technologies. Machine-learning-based integration of multi-sourced datasets is demonstrated to improve lithological/lithogeochemical discrimination and predict subsurface geological features. This aids in the delineation of drilling targets more accurately, supporting dynamic, data-driven decision-making in mineral exploration.

How to cite: Luolavirta, K. and Ojala, J.: Machine learning framework for the integration of drill-core hyperspectral and geochemical point data to enhance geological modeling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19052, 2026.

EGU26-304 | ECS | Orals | GI2.1

Detecting Fin Whale Calls from Ocean-Bottom Seismometer Data with Deep Learning 

Jocelyn Japnanto, Alex Saoulis, Miriam Romagosa, Rita Leitão, Mónica A. Silva, Matt Graham, and Ana M. G. Ferreira

Fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) produce low-frequency vocalisations that propagate efficiently through the ocean and seafloor, making them detectable on broadband ocean bottom seismometers (OBS). While primarily deployed for seismic studies, OBSs offer a unique and cost-effective opportunity for passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) of marine mammals in remote regions over extended periods. Traditional detection and classification of whale calls have relied on energy thresholding, cross-correlation, or matched filtering techniques. These approaches, however, may falter in performance in high-noise environments typical of OBS datasets and often require extensive manual post-processing, making them a labour-intensive process. These limitations motivate automated, noise-robust approaches capable of exploiting the growing volume of seismic data now available.

We present a deep learning framework for detecting fin whale calls from broadband OBSs surrounding the São Jorge Island in the Azores, as well as up to twenty stations of the wider UPFLOW array spanning the Azores–Madeira–Canaries region. Our method uses a semantic segmentation model that operates on spectrogram representations between 12–35 Hz, a frequency band encompassing the classic ‘20-Hz’ fin whale note and the lower frequency ‘backbeat’. The model architecture includes a ResNet-18 encoder pretrained on ImageNet with a U-Net decoder to identify calls in both time and frequency. Training was conducted on a dataset comprising of ~6 days of manually annotated spectrograms and an additional ~6 days of background-only spectrograms. Performance was evaluated using mean Intersection-over-Union and F1-score, achieving 0.65 and 0.80 respectively.

Once validated, the model was applied to months- to year-long OBS records across the region. Fin whale calls were detected at all stations, with clear seasonal patterns showing peak calling activity between October and February, consistent with known migratory patterns in the North Atlantic. Spatial differences in call characteristics and temporal patterns further revealed potential regional variations in vocal behaviour, offering insights into song plasticity and complexity.

By applying a deep learning-based detector on OBS data, we show that machine learning provides a powerful and efficient approach to automating fin whale call detection at scale. Our method processed hundreds of thousands of hours of OBS recordings and identified nearly a million calls across all stations. This large-scale detection unlocks detailed analyses of vocal behaviour, spatial distribution, and seasonal trends, deepening our understanding of their behaviour in the north-east Atlantic. Our findings not only highlight the interdisciplinary value of OBS datasets, but also the potential of machine learning in supporting PAM efforts for the conservation and management of wide-ranging marine species.

How to cite: Japnanto, J., Saoulis, A., Romagosa, M., Leitão, R., Silva, M. A., Graham, M., and Ferreira, A. M. G.: Detecting Fin Whale Calls from Ocean-Bottom Seismometer Data with Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-304, 2026.

EGU26-716 * | ECS | Orals | GI2.1 | Highlight

An Integrated Digital Framework for Multi-Scale Water Security in Africa. 

Samuel Berchie Morfo and Nana Kwame Osei Bamfo

This presentation outlines a comprehensive framework of multi-scale digital solutions designed to address Africa's pressing water challenges. We explore the integration of advanced physical modelling with a diverse suite of next-generation hydrologic observations from remote sensing and in-situ networks to crowd-sourced data. The core of our approach lies in automated systems for data fusion, processing, and assimilation, leveraging machine learning and hybrid techniques to enhance model accuracy. Critically, we incorporate robust uncertainty quantification to ensure reliable outputs. These integrated components enable the development of actionable, real-time forecasting and decision support systems for water resources allocation and disaster management. We will demonstrate practical applications, including autonomous processes and embedded devices, showcasing a transformative pathway towards proactive, data-driven water governance across the African continent.

How to cite: Berchie Morfo, S. and Bamfo, N. K. O.: An Integrated Digital Framework for Multi-Scale Water Security in Africa., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-716, 2026.

The Gross Calorific Value (GCV) indicates coal quality by measuring the total heat released during the complete combustion of the coal. Accurate GCV estimation is crucial for efficient pricing, processing, and energy performance assessment in industries. Conventional oxygen bomb calorimetry, though precise, is relatively slow and expensive for large-scale analyses. Since coal’s organic and elemental composition strongly affects its heating value, understanding this relationship can help with reliable GCV evaluation. In this study, we analyzed the mid-infrared FTIR spectra of coal and selected 56 absorption bands associated with the relevant organic and elemental constituents of coal. These were used as input features for various machine learning (ML) models to predict the GCV of coal from the Johilla coal basin in India. The ML models tested included piecewise linear regression (PLR), partial least squares regression (PLSR), support vector regression (SVR), random forest regression (RFR), artificial neural networks (ANN), and extreme gradient boosting regression (XGB). By combining the predictions from the three models (PLSR, RFR, and XGB) through a simple average, we achieved the highest accuracy (R² = 0.951, RMSE = 19.05%, MBE = 1.42%, MAE = 4.053 cal/g), indicating strong agreement between the predicted and measured values. Overall, the FTIR-based method yields results that match or surpass those of traditional laboratory techniques reported in earlier research. The GCV values predicted from the FTIR models were statistically tested using t-tests (test for mean) and F-tests (test for variance) at a 1% significance level and were found to be statistically similar to the results from the standard bomb calorimeter method. The study demonstrates that the FTIR-based approach is independent and reliable and can be used as a faster and more convenient alternative method for determining GCV, making it highly useful for quick coal quality analysis in industry.

How to cite: Vinod, A., Prasad, A. K., and Varma, A. K.: A novel method for rapid and reliable estimation of Gross Calorific Value (GCV) of Coal using mid-infrared FTIR Spectroscopy and a multi-model Machine Learning Approach, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1075, 2026.

EGU26-1760 | ECS | Orals | GI2.1

Toward Robust Three-Dimensional Magnetic and Gravity Inversion Using Deep Learning 

Shiva Tirdad, Gilles Bellefleur, Fidele Yrro, Mojtaba Bavand Savadkoohi, and Erwan Gloaguen

Magnetic and gravity surveys remain among the most cost-effective geophysical tools for investigating the subsurface. They provide information on rock geometry and bulk properties at regional to deposit scale, and they have long been used to guide mineral exploration. However, turning geophysical anomalies into reliable three-dimensional property models requires inversion, a process that is inherently non-unique: multiple subsurface distributions can explain the same anomaly. Conventional approaches, such as least-squares or Bayesian inversion, can produce valuable results; however, they remain computationally demanding for large 3D models and require strong regularization choices that may bias geological interpretation.
Over the last decade, geoscientists have explored machine learning as an alternative approach. Instead of repeatedly solving forward equations, machine learning methods learn a mapping between geophysical anomalies and subsurface properties using large training libraries of synthetic examples. Early work with convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and U-Net architectures showed the concept is viable for electromagnetic and seismic data. More recent studies have shown that deep neural networks can recover magnetic susceptibility distributions from magnetic data and, in some cases, perform joint inversion of gravity and magnetic observations. Nevertheless, purely convolutional architectures often struggle to preserve long-range spatial relationships in fully three-dimensional volumes, resulting in blurred boundaries and reduced geological interpretability.
Recent advances in deep learning offer new opportunities to address these limitations. Emerging models are designed to capture long-range dependencies and preserve sharper boundaries. They have been effective in other 3D volumetric fields, such as medical imaging and seismic interpretation, but have yet to be explored for potential-field inversion.
In this study, we develop a deep-learning-based inversion method for magnetic and gravity data aimed at critical mineral exploration. The approach targets mineral systems with distinct geophysical signatures, with a focus on volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) environments. By combining data-driven learning with physics-informed training, the method produces reproducible three-dimensional susceptibility and density models that reduce ambiguity in subsurface interpretation. The workflow is tested using data from the Flin Flon VMS district in Manitoba, Canada, demonstrating its potential to improve targeting of buried copper-zinc mineralization and to support the integration of advanced AI methods into geoscience workflows.

 

How to cite: Tirdad, S., Bellefleur, G., Yrro, F., Bavand Savadkoohi, M., and Gloaguen, E.: Toward Robust Three-Dimensional Magnetic and Gravity Inversion Using Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1760, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1760, 2026.

EGU26-3405 | Orals | GI2.1

SatWellMCQ: A Vision–Language Satellite Datasetfor MCQ-Based Image Grounding of Oil Wells 

Ahmed Emam, Sultan Alrowili, Mathan K. Eswaran, Romeo Kinzler, and Younes Samih

Monitoring oil and gas wells is essential for assessing environmental degradation and long-term impacts such as methane emissions from abandoned and orphaned wells. Satellite imagery combined with machine learning offers scalable capabilities for detecting and characterizing oil and gas infrastructure, yet progress remains constrained by the lack of multimodal, multiple-choice (MCQ) vision-language datasets that enable structured evaluation and post-training of vision-language models (VLMs) for oil well scene grounding. Existing resources are predominantly visual-only and therefore provide limited support for image grounding from satellite imagery.

To address this gap, we introduce SatWellMCQ, a vision-language dataset of expert-verified satellite imagery paired with natural-language descriptions and multiple-choice supervision for image-grounded identification and localization of oil wells. SatWellMCQ uses high-resolution multispectral Planet imagery (RGB and infrared) and text annotations that describe well type and spatial context. Each sample includes one expert-verified correct description and three semantically plausible distractor descriptions drawn from other samples, enabling structured MCQ evaluation. All samples were manually verified by a senior domain expert with 100% intra-expert agreement, ensuring accurate alignment between images, labels, and text. The dataset covers four categories relevant to oil well monitoring: active wells, suspended wells, abandoned wells, and control samples without visible wells, yielding a balanced distribution for training and evaluation. We publicly release SatWellMCQ to support research on image grounding and vision-language adaptation in satellite imagery of oil wells.

We evaluate SatWellMCQ across state-of-the-art VLMs in zero-shot and supervised fine-tuning (SFT) settings. In the zero-shot setup, performance is moderate only for large-scale models, with the best result achieved by Qwen3-VL-235B at 0.670 accuracy. Compact models transfer poorly in zero-shot evaluation (e.g., Granite~3.3~2B at 0.422 and Phi-4-multimodal-instruct~6B at 0.376), highlighting the difficulty of domain-specific oil well analysis without targeted supervision. Supervised fine-tuning on SatWellMCQ yields substantial gains for compact models: Granite~3.3~2B improves to 0.722 and Phi-4-multimodal-instruct~6B reaches 0.730, surpassing all zero-shot baselines. These results show that SatWellMCQ poses a challenging benchmark for current VLMs while enabling effective domain adaptation through structured MCQ supervision.

Overall, SatWellMCQ provides a resource for post-training and benchmarking VLMs on image grounding of oil wells in satellite imagery and supports  geoscientific monitoring tasks relevant to environmental impact assessment and methane mitigation.

How to cite: Emam, A., Alrowili, S., Eswaran, M. K., Kinzler, R., and Samih, Y.: SatWellMCQ: A Vision–Language Satellite Datasetfor MCQ-Based Image Grounding of Oil Wells, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3405, 2026.

EGU26-4011 | ECS | Orals | GI2.1

Identifying valuable forest habitats for conservation in north-western Germany using AI and citizen science 

Katharina Horn, Daniele Silvestro, Christine Wallis, Pedro J. Leitao, Ender Daldaban, and Annette Rudolph

Around the globe we experience a significant biodiversity loss, mainly driven by direct anthropogenic exploitation, land use changes, and climate change. The most effective strategy to limit biodiversity loss is the designation and management of protected areas. Consequently, the European Union has adopted the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, aiming to protect 30% of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems by 2030. However, a consistent framework to designate protected areas across all EU member states is lacking. Additionally, the monitoring of biodiversity is challenged by the dynamic nature of the biological system, exacerbated by ongoing climate change, putting additional pressure on the member states in the identification of suitable areas for conservation. 

In contrast, the increasing amount of detailed geospatial and climatic data contains valuable information that can be used to optimise protected area designation. Recent developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning now provide us with powerful tools to best utilise these vast amounts of data. In this study, we develop a transparent and reproducible framework to prioritise protected areas in forests. Here we apply the CAPTAIN framework based on reinforcement learning (RL) to identify valuable forest habitats for conservation in the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany. First, we model habitats of ten forest bird indicator species across the period of 2016-2024. Second, we use the changing habitat patterns to train a RL model that identifies 30% of the most valuable forest sites in the federal state. Finally, we model valuable forest sites under different policies (e.g., including or excluding opportunity costs for nature conservation) to illustrate how potential limitations of nature conservation management can be addressed. Our results indicate that forest sites in the south-east of NRW are most suitable for conservation. Furthermore, we find that including opportunity costs for nature conservation in the model predictions produces similarly strong outcomes for safeguarding the most endangered bird species. The framework makes use of open-source data and can be applied to any other region or country to support strategic nature conservation management.

How to cite: Horn, K., Silvestro, D., Wallis, C., Leitao, P. J., Daldaban, E., and Rudolph, A.: Identifying valuable forest habitats for conservation in north-western Germany using AI and citizen science, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4011, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4011, 2026.

Geological mapping in complex metallogenic provinces often relies on band ratios and thresholding techniques. While effective for simple targets, these traditional methods struggle to capture non-linear spectral associations inherent in natural mineral mixtures and require significant prior knowledge of the target mineralogy. This study introduces a novel, data-driven unsupervised pipeline for mineral target generation, applied to the Aït Saoun region in the Moroccan Anti-Atlas, a strategic zone characterized by polymetallic occurrences (Cu, Co, Fe, Mn).

We leverage the full spectral topology of ASTER satellite imagery (VNIR-SWIR bands) rather than reduced indices. Our approach integrates topological manifold learning to reduce the high-dimensional spectral space, followed by density-based spatial clustering to delineate mineral clusters. This combination allows for the preservation of local data structure and the automated rejection of noise without human supervision.

The pipeline successfully identified spatially coherent clusters corresponding to specific hydrothermal alteration zones. It autonomously distinguished between structural iron-manganese anomalies and lithology-controlled copper mineralization a nuance often missed by standard linear ratios. The metallogenic relevance of these spectral clusters was rigorously validated through field mapping and geochemical analysis using Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS). Results confirmed economic grades in the predicted zones, yielding Copper concentrations up to 2.60% in propylitic alteration zones and Iron-Manganese oxide grades (21.94% Fe, 1.80% Mn) in tectonic corridors. Furthermore, the detection of distal barite anomalies highlights the method’s capability to map complete hydrothermal zonations.

These findings demonstrate that topological machine learning offers a robust, superior alternative to conventional remote sensing techniques for vectoring exploration targets in arid environments. By converting raw spectral data into validated metallogenic maps, this pipeline provides a scalable tool for de-risking early-stage mineral exploration in the Anti-Atlas.

How to cite: Elomairi, M. A. and El GAROUANI, A.: Automated Mineral Cluster Detection in ASTER Data Using Topological Machine Learning: A Novel Data-Driven Approach for Geological Exploration in Ait Saoun, Anti Atlas, Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4179, 2026.

EGU26-4956 | ECS | Posters on site | GI2.1

Electromagnetic & Cone Penetration Test Data Fusion on Soil Characterization 

Dimitrios Madelis, Marios Karaoulis, and Philippe De Smedt

Defining subsurface soil conditions in complex coastal settings requires the use of both geophysical and geotechnical datasets, each with different resolution and sensitivity. This study combined helicopter-borne electromagnetic (HEM) data, where large areas are spatially covered with limitations to vertical resolution, with cone penetration test (CPT) data, where high resolution can be achieved while the spatial resolution often is very sparse due to drilling associated costs. Τo formulate a continuous three-dimensional model of subsurface soil properties for levee risk assessment, these datasets were integrated. HEM data provides extensive covering resistivity profiles, while CPT provides high resolution, spatially limited measurements of mechanical soil behaviour.
It is known that resistivity as a soil property depends on many parameters (mostly water quality and soil type), and there is no straightforward method to directly translate it to soil, hence the use of ML. To deal with these complexities, we employed machine learning methods – Random Forests and neural networks – to merge heterogeneous datasets and predict continuous soil behaviour indices and discrete lithological types. We propose the use of multiple features, such as spatial coordinates, depths, distance from coast, soil types and local geological conditions. After pre-processing, machine-learning models were trained to fuse the datasets to ensure spatial consistency in the coastal environment. Afterwards, the Soil Behaviour Type Index (SBT) (Robertson, 1990) was calculated using the CPT measurements and then was discretized into lithological units.
A classical machine learning algorithm (Random Forest) and a PyTorch-based neural network were trained for regression (predicting the continuous SBT index) and classification (predicting soil types) tasks, and their performance was evaluated using standard statistical and visual metrics. Final models were retrained on the full dataset to increase generalizability and robustness. The final product is to map 𝐼𝑐 values and lithological classes at every HEM point and ultimately to make a 3D subsurface soil model. The outcome for each process was validated against an 80%-20% test to ensure reasonable results.
While regression models had similar RMSE scores, classification models generally produced models with greater accuracy of dominant soil types but captured fewer underrepresented mixed lithologies. This work focuses on the interpretability of soil models through integrating data (i.e., not just purely statistical but spatial output) and ultimately continuity in the spatial domain (where engineers are most concerned). The goal of this study is to develop a framework where continuous geophysical data, collected either by helicopters or drones can be combined with additional geological boreholes and CPTs and other geotechnical information, to enable us to image the subsurface beyond resistivity. One of the products of this study serves to represent an approach to providing a better product to those grappling with levee design and safety.

How to cite: Madelis, D., Karaoulis, M., and De Smedt, P.: Electromagnetic & Cone Penetration Test Data Fusion on Soil Characterization, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4956, 2026.

EGU26-5687 | ECS | Orals | GI2.1

Application of Gaussian Mixture Models for Geochemical Anomaly Detection 

Judith Jaeger, José I. Barquero, Julio A. López-Gómez, and Pablo Higueras

Geochemical prospecting is a fundamental tool in mineral exploration. Traditionally, the interpretation of geochemical data has relied on classical statistical methods, which in many cases are univariate or linear in nature and may fail to adequately capture the complex multivariate relationships among geochemical parameters. In this context, machine learning approaches offer an alternative framework for the integrated analysis of multivariate data and the identification of hidden patterns. 

This study evaluates the application of a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) as an unsupervised method for the identification of geochemical anomalies of potential geological interest. The analysis was conducted on a dataset of 114 soil samples collected from the southwestern sector of the province of Ciudad Real. Before the application of the GMM, an exploratory statistical analysis was performed, including the Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin (KMO) test and the Measure of Sampling Adequacy (MSA), aimed to assess the suitability of the variables for multivariate analysis. 

After conducting several experiments, the results indicate that the Gaussian Mixture Model can identify zones with anomalous values consistent with geological interest, highlighting its potential as a supportive tool in geochemical prospecting. 

How to cite: Jaeger, J., Barquero, J. I., López-Gómez, J. A., and Higueras, P.: Application of Gaussian Mixture Models for Geochemical Anomaly Detection, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5687, 2026.

EGU26-6107 | ECS | Posters on site | GI2.1

Forecasting Offshore Caisson Tilt via Deep Learning: A Numerical Simulation-Based Approach Accounting for Geotechnical Uncertainty 

Saeyon Kim, Jingi Hong, Inyoung Huh, and Heejung Youn

This study presents a comparative analysis of time-series forecasting models to predict caisson tilt using early-stage monitoring data. To establish a training dataset that accounts for inherent geotechnical uncertainty, 1,000 2D numerical simulations were performed using PLAXIS2D, based on an actual design case in South Korea. To incorporate spatial variability, the subsurface was discretized into 61 independent zones: Deep Cement Mixing (33 zones), foundation rubble (6 zones), backfill rubble (10 zones), and underlying heaving soil (12 zones). Geotechnical parameters including elastic modulus (E), undrained shear strength (Su), and interface strength reduction factor (Rinter), were varied by up to 50% of their design values. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) was used to assign geotechnical properties to each zone. Each case simulated a 28-stage construction sequence, with caisson tilt extracted at each stage to generate time-series data.

Four forecasting models such as ARIMA, LSTM, Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), and an encoder-only Transformer, were evaluated. The dataset was split into 680 simulations for training, 170 for validation, and 150 for testing. Forecasting performance was assessed across varying initial observation lengths (cut = 3, 5, 10, 15, and 20 stages) to predict all remaining future stages. Results indicate that while the statistical baseline (ARIMA) showed consistently high errors regardless of observation length, with RMSE values of approximately 0.09 at cut = 3 and 0.08 at cut = 10. In contrast, deep learning models exhibited clear error reductions as more initial observations became available. Among the tested models, the TCN achieved the highest accuracy, with RMSE values of approximately 0.006 at cut = 10 and 0.004 at cut = 15. The encoder-only Transformer model also maintained stable performance for cut ≥ 10, with RMSE values below 0.01.

Acknowledgements This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (No. 2023R1A2C1007635).

How to cite: Kim, S., Hong, J., Huh, I., and Youn, H.: Forecasting Offshore Caisson Tilt via Deep Learning: A Numerical Simulation-Based Approach Accounting for Geotechnical Uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6107, 2026.

EGU26-6766 | ECS | Posters on site | GI2.1

Rapid Bayesian Geophysical Inversion Using General Geophysical Neural Operator 

heng zhang and yixian xu

Bayesian inversion provides a rigorous framework for uncertainty quantification in geophysics, but is often computationally prohibitive due to the reliance on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, which requires massive numbers of forward simulations. While deep learning surrogate models offer acceleration, existing architectures (e.g., CNNs, FNO, DeepONet) often struggle with fixed discretization constraints and cannot flexibly handle the irregular observation coordinates typical in field surveys.

To address these challenges, we propose the General Geophysical Neural Operator (GGNO), a novel Transformer-based architecture designed for mesh-independent operator learning. This design fulfills three fundamental requirements for forward solvers in the context of practical inversion: (1) Discretization-invariant, allowing the processing of input models with different mesh resolutions; (2) Prediction-free, enabling direct solution querying at arbitrary spatio-temporal coordinates; and (3) Domain-independent, decoupling input and output discretizations. 

We validate GGNO on Magnetotelluric (MT) forward modeling, demonstrating exceptional generalization while achieving accuracy two orders of magnitude higher than traditional methods. By integrating GGNO into a Bayesian framework, we achieve highly efficient MCMC sampling, reducing the computational time from tens of days to a few minutes, which allows for a comprehensive exploration of the posterior distribution. Applied to field data, this approach successfully recovers complex subsurface resistivity structures with rigorous uncertainty bounds. These results highlight GGNO's potential to enable high-precision subsurface imaging and robust probabilistic interpretation for complex geophysical exploration.

How to cite: zhang, H. and xu, Y.: Rapid Bayesian Geophysical Inversion Using General Geophysical Neural Operator, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6766, 2026.

EGU26-7774 | ECS | Posters on site | GI2.1

Probabilistic Reconstruction of Sentinel-2 Satellite Image Time Series Using Multi-Sensor Gaussian Process Models 

Bastien Nespoulous, Alexandre Constantin, Dawa Derksen, and Veronique Defonte

Satellite Image Time Series (SITS) are a cornerstone of Earth observation, enabling long-term monitoring of environmental processes such as vegetation dynamics, land-use change, and natural hazards. However, optical satellite time series, including Sentinel-2, are frequently irregular and incomplete due to cloud cover, atmospheric effects, and acquisition constraints, which strongly limit their usability in operational monitoring systems. In contrast, Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) provides regular observations for any weather condition and offers complementary information for mitigating optical sensor limitations. Generating dense and reliable Sentinel-2 time series from multi-sensor observations therefore remains a critical challenge.

This work investigates Gaussian Process (GP) based statistical models for the reconstruction and densification of Sentinel-2 image time series by jointly exploiting Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data. Gaussian Processes offer a flexible Bayesian framework for pixel interpolation and extrapolation. We explore GP formulations capable of handling irregular temporal sampling, multi-output dependencies, and latent variable structures, enabling the fusion of heterogeneous optical and radar observations.

An in-depth analysis of the state-of-the-art is conducted, covering multi-output Gaussian Processes, sparse and variational approximations for scalability, latent variable models (including hierarchical GP-LVMs), and inverse GP approaches based on shared latent spaces. These methods are evaluated with respect to three key challenges: ensuring spatio-temporal coherence of reconstructed images, fusing asynchronous multi-sensor observations, and maintaining computational tractability for large-scale satellite datasets.

To support experimental investigations, a representative multi-regional dataset is constructed over mainland France and overseas territories, capturing diverse climatic patterns, land-cover types, and cloud conditions, including extreme events such as flooding. 

This study establishes the methodological foundations for reconstructing dense Sentinel-2 time series conditioned on Sentinel-1 observations, with explicit uncertainty quantification. By leveraging Sentinel-1 data, the approach effectively imputes missing Sentinel-2 values while providing consistent average pixel estimates with associated uncertainty, which is critical for geoscience applications. The proposed framework contributes toward more robust Earth observation monitoring systems and the development of reliable geospatial digital twins.

How to cite: Nespoulous, B., Constantin, A., Derksen, D., and Defonte, V.: Probabilistic Reconstruction of Sentinel-2 Satellite Image Time Series Using Multi-Sensor Gaussian Process Models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7774, 2026.

EGU26-7860 | Posters on site | GI2.1

Densification and forecasting of Sentinel-2 time series from multimodal SAR and optical satellite data using deep generative models 

Véronique Defonte, Dawa Derksen, Alexandre Constantin, and Bastien Nespoulous

Sentinel-2 optical image time series are a key source of information for many Earth observation applications, including climate monitoring, agriculture, ecosystem dynamics, and land surface change analysis. Dense and regular observations are essential to accurately capture seasonal patterns, abrupt events, and long-term trends. However, in practice, Sentinel-2 time series are often sparse and irregular due to cloud cover and varying acquisition conditions. These limitations significantly complicate continuous monitoring and the analysis of surface dynamics. Moreover, beyond time series densification, there is a growing need to anticipate future optical observations to support scenario analysis, early warning systems, and predictive environmental monitoring.

To address these challenges, we propose a deep learning–based framework for densifying Sentinel-2 time series by generating plausible optical images at arbitrary past or future dates. The approach relies on multimodal satellite observations, jointly exploiting optical Sentinel-2 and radar Sentinel-1 data. Indeed, SAR measurements are insensitive to cloud cover and provide complementary structural and temporal information. This multimodal setting enables the reconstruction of missing observations and the prediction of future optical states while preserving realistic spatio-temporal dynamics.

From a methodological perspective, the model is explicitly designed to handle sparse, incomplete, and temporally misaligned multimodal time series. It operates on temporal sets of Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-1 images acquired at irregular dates around a target time. A cross-attention mechanism is used to explicitly model interactions across time and modalities, allowing the network to identify and weight the most relevant observations for generating a Sentinel-2 image at a given target date.

In addition, the proposed framework incorporates a probabilistic decoder that estimates not only the predicted Sentinel-2 image but also an associated uncertainty map. This uncertainty estimation provides valuable insight into the confidence of the generated pixels, which is particularly important for downstream applications such as anomaly detection, risk assessment, and decision-making support.

The model is evaluated across multiple geographical regions and land-cover types, demonstrating strong performance in both densification and forecasting tasks. Results show that the proposed approach successfully preserves the temporal dynamics of the scenes, notably by accurately reproducing vegetation phenology as reflected in NDVI time series. Forecasting experiments further highlight the importance of radar information: Sentinel-1 observations close to the target date allow the model to detect surface changes occurring after the last available optical image, thereby improving future predictions. Overall, the proposed method represents a step towards the densification and forecasting of Sentinel-2 time series, offering a promising direction for future methodologies aimed at continuous Earth surface monitoring and predictive analysis.

How to cite: Defonte, V., Derksen, D., Constantin, A., and Nespoulous, B.: Densification and forecasting of Sentinel-2 time series from multimodal SAR and optical satellite data using deep generative models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7860, 2026.

EGU26-8542 | Orals | GI2.1

A Big Data and Text Mining–Based Media Analysis Framework for Disaster Cause Investigation 

Jin Eun Kim, Heeyoung Shin, and Sengyong Choi

 As similar disasters and accidents continue to occur, public concern about the limitations of existing disaster response systems and the need for institutional improvement is increasing. The National Disaster Management Research Institute of Korea conducts disaster cause investigations as part of its statutory responsibilities, examining problems observed before and after disasters, institutional weaknesses, and public demands for improvement. In this context, news data provide valuable unstructured information that reflects on-site conditions, response activities, policy debates, and public opinion, and thus complement official investigation records in understanding institutional and managerial factors related to disasters.


 This study aims to develop a media analysis framework based on big data and text mining for use in disaster cause investigations. Disaster-related news articles were first collected, and a large language model (Gemini) was applied to identify and extract sentences that describe problems and suggested improvements in the stages of disaster occurrence and response. The extracted sentences were then processed using natural language processing techniques, including stopword removal and the merging of duplicate and semantically similar sentences. Based on semantic similarity, the remaining sentences were grouped to organize major issues. In addition, nouns were extracted and their frequencies were analyzed by year to identify key terms and to examine changes in topics emphasized in media coverage.
 

 Applying the proposed framework to the disaster cause investigation of the 2023 Osong Underpass Flooding Disaster conducted in 2025, we identified 21 problem items grouped into seven categories, such as insufficient pre-closure of the underpass and inadequate maintenance of river embankments. In addition, 17 improvement measures were derived in six categories, including improvements to underpass closure criteria and flood risk grading, as well as the strengthening of river management practices, and were systematically organized and proposed. The results indicate that combining news big data, text mining, and large language models can effectively structure key issues and institutional weaknesses, and can serve as a useful analytical tool for strengthening the evidence base and explanatory power of disaster cause investigations.

How to cite: Kim, J. E., Shin, H., and Choi, S.: A Big Data and Text Mining–Based Media Analysis Framework for Disaster Cause Investigation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8542, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8542, 2026.

EGU26-10174 | ECS | Orals | GI2.1

A global–hierarchical–categorical alignment framework to address sample scarcity and domain shift in crop mapping 

Jingya Yang, Qiong Hu, Mariana Belgiu, and Wenbin Wu

The scarcity and high acquisition cost of field crop samples remain a major bottleneck for applying Artificial Intelligence (AI)–driven supervised learning methods in large-scale geoscientific applications such as crop type mapping. Meanwhile, crop phenology and, consequently, spectra-temporal characteristics of the same crop type present significant interannual and regional variations due to the differences in local conditions and human activities, such as climatic, soil properties and farming practices. This causes the “domain shift” challenge. Therefore, directly applying a classification model trained in a specific region and year to a new region or year inevitably leads to poor prediction performance. The gap between the abundant availability of Earth Observations imagery and the limited accessibility of training crop samples hider efficient mapping of varied crop types across large regions. To address training sample scarcity and cross-region/year domain shift in large-scale crop type mapping, we propose a transferable crop mapping method named Global-Hierarchical-Categorical feature Alignment (GHCA). GHCA integrates unsupervised domain adaptation, contrastive learning, and pseudo-labeling to achieve multi-dimensional alignment between source domain and target domain at global, hierarchical and categorical levels. The developed method enables accurate and transferable crop mapping across diverse agricultural landscapes with minimum field survey requirements. The main contributions of our study can be summarized as follows: (1) A global feature pre-alignment mechanism is introduced by calculating the Multi-Kernel Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MK-MMD) metric across different hierarchical features to align source and target domains in global and hierarchical feature spaces. This mechanism substantially improves the initial reliability of pseudo-labels generated for the target domain, providing a reliable foundation for subsequent fine-grained categorical level feature alignment; (2) A robust pseudo-label generation strategy is developed by jointly considering prediction confidence, prediction certainty, and prediction stability. Reliable pseudo-labels for target domain are selected by calculating model prediction probabilities and predictive uncertainty estimates through teacher-student model. Moreover, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) strategy is adopted to updated model parameters in the teacher path to enable the acquisition of obtaining more stable pseudo-labels; (3) Category-wise feature alignment is achieved by integrating pseudo-labeling with contrastive learning, which explicitly pulls intra-class feature closer for the same crop types across source and target domains, while pushing inter-class feature apart for different crop types. The effectiveness of the proposed GHCA method for both cross-region and cross-year crop mapping was evaluated across five regions in China and the U.S. over a two-year timeframe. GHCA was compared with a machine learning method (RF), supervised deep learning models (DCM, Transformer, and PhenoCropNet), and transfer learning methods (DACCN, PAN, and CSTN) for cross‑year and cross‑region crop mapping. Experimental results showed that GHCA outperformed other models in most transfer cases, with OA ranging from 0.82 to 0.95 (cross-region) and 0.89 to 0.98 (cross-year), achieving an average OA increase of 6.2% and 3.5% in cross-region and cross-year experiments, respectively. These results highlight the strong potential of advanced AI methodologies to deliver robust, quantitative, and transferable solutions for complex geoscientific problems using large Earth observation datasets.

How to cite: Yang, J., Hu, Q., Belgiu, M., and Wu, W.: A global–hierarchical–categorical alignment framework to address sample scarcity and domain shift in crop mapping, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10174, 2026.

This study introduces an innovative methodology for generating realistic soil prediction maps that visualise the spatial distribution of specific chemicals, achieved through the rigorous evaluation and comparison of advanced modelling techniques, including innovative modelling techniques based on the use of neural networks and multilayer perceptrons (MLPs). The Drava River floodplain was selected as the primary case study based on stringent criteria: a) intensive historical metal ore mining and metallurgical processing activities, which have left a legacy of contamination; b) distinctive geomorphological features, such as dynamic floodplains and sediment deposition zones; and c) diverse geological settings that facilitate reliable model calibration across transboundary reaches. Soil measurements were integrated with diverse geospatial datasets—derived from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), land cover classifications, and remote sensing imagery—to enable high-resolution mapping of contaminant distributions via sophisticated predictive modelling powered by neural networks and MLPs. A novel, holistic approach was applied to simultaneously reconstruct multiple influencing processes, including erosion, sediment transport, and pollutant dispersion, across the entire study area. This comprehensive framework not only advances contamination mapping practices but also empowers the developed models to trace primary distribution pathways, quantify the true extent of affected zones, enhance data interpretability, and inform evidence-based decisions on land-use planning, remediation strategies, and environmental management in mining-impacted regions.

How to cite: Alijagić, J. and Šajn, R.: Advanced AI Soil Mapping Techniques and Transboundary Risk Assessment for the Drava River Floodplain , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10465, 2026.

EGU26-11012 | Posters on site | GI2.1

Deep-learning based large-scale automated observation of earthquake surface ruptures 

Xin Liu, Shirou Wang, Xuhua Shi, Cheng Su, Yann Klinger, Arthur Delorme, Haibing Li, Jiawei Pan, and Hanlin Chen

Rapid and objective mapping of co-seismic surface ruptures is essential for post-earthquake impact assessment and for improving our understanding of fault geometry, stress transfer, and rupture processes that inform longer-term seismic hazard analyses. However, rupture mapping has traditionally relied on manual interpretation of field observations or remote-sensing data, which is time-consuming and difficult to extend consistently to large spatial extents, multiple earthquakes, and diverse data sources. Here we present an automated deep-learning framework—the Deep Rupture Mapping Network (DRMNet)—a convolutional neural network designed for end-to-end, high-precision detection of co-seismic surface ruptures from multi-sensor imagery. DRMNet is applied to four large continental earthquakes: the 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo, 2022 Mw 6.9 Menyuan, 2001 Mw 7.8 Kokoxili, and 1905 Mw ~8 Bulnay (Mongolia) events. The framework consistently delineates both primary and subsidiary rupture structures across centimetre-scale drone imagery and metre-scale satellite data. Across diverse tectonic settings, image resolutions, and preservation states, DRMNet achieves precisions approaching or exceeding 90%. By enabling consistent rupture recognition across multiple events, sensors, and timescales, the proposed framework overcomes the event-specific and local-scale limitations of previous approaches, supporting both rapid post-earthquake response and retrospective rupture reconstruction, and laying the groundwork for standardized global surface-rupture inventories.

How to cite: Liu, X., Wang, S., Shi, X., Su, C., Klinger, Y., Delorme, A., Li, H., Pan, J., and Chen, H.: Deep-learning based large-scale automated observation of earthquake surface ruptures, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11012, 2026.

EGU26-12550 | ECS | Posters on site | GI2.1

Identifying zircon provenances using domain-adversarial neural network 

Mengwei Zhang, Guoxiong Chen, Timothy Kusky, Mark Harrison, Qiuming Cheng, and Lu Wang
  • Zircon trace element geochemistry is a pivotal tool for unraveling petrogenesis and the evolutionary history of the Earth’s crust. While two-dimensional (2D) discriminant diagrams are conventionally used to identify parent rock types, the emergence of machine learning (ML) has introduced a transformative research paradigm. ML not only enhances classification accuracy but also resolves the inherent ambiguities found in traditional geochemical diagrams. However, the reliability of current ML models typically depends on the vast archives of labeled samples from the Phanerozoic. When extending research to “deep-time” samples, such as Hadean zircons, the scarcity of labeled data often forces researchers to rely on models trained exclusively on Phanerozoic datasets. This approach is prone to misclassification due to “domain shift,” caused by systematic variations in zircon trace element distributions across different geological eons. To address this challenge, we propose a Domain Adversarial Neural Network (DANN) framework tailored for zircon trace element analysis. By aligning the feature distributions of the source domain (Phanerozoic) and the target domain (Precambrian), the DANN extracts “domain-invariant yet geologically significant” high-dimensional feature representations, effectively mitigating the effects of temporal data bias. Our results demonstrate that DANN significantly outperforms traditional machine learning methods across multiple performance metrics. Furthermore, t-SNE visualization confirms that the source and target domains are effectively aligned within the feature space. When applied to ~4.3 Ga zircon samples from the Jack Hills, the model achieved a classification accuracy of 0.923. This high level of performance underscores the framework’s exceptional generalization capability for identifying unlabeled deep-time samples and its potential for broader applications in Precambrian geology. This study develops a transferable, data‑driven framework for inferring deep‑time geological processes, providing a novel methodology to address the limitations inherent in the traditional principle of uniformitarianism. Furthermore, the framework is extensible to other mineral systems (e.g., apatite, monazite), thereby opening new avenues for quantitatively reconstructing the dynamic evolution of the early Earth.

How to cite: Zhang, M., Chen, G., Kusky, T., Harrison, M., Cheng, Q., and Wang, L.: Identifying zircon provenances using domain-adversarial neural network, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12550, 2026.

EGU26-13366 | ECS | Orals | GI2.1

Spatial Downscaling of Land Surface Temperature Using Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 Data Fusion for Agricultural Applications 

Bouchra Boufous, Fatima Ben zhair, and Salwa Belaqziz

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key variable for assessing crop thermal stress and supporting precision agriculture. However, thermal satellite products often involve a trade-off between spatial and temporal resolution. Sentinel-3 provides frequent LST observations, but its coarse spatial resolution limits its use for field-scale agricultural monitoring.

This study proposes a spatial downscaling approach for LST based on the fusion of Sentinel-3 thermal data with high-resolution multispectral information from Sentinel-2. The method exploits the inverse relationship between surface temperature and vegetation cover through the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A linear regression model was developed to estimate LST at a spatial resolution of 10 m using Sentinel-2 NDVI as the primary predictor.

The approach was applied over the agricultural site of El Ghaba in the Marrakech–Safi region (Morocco), covering different crop types, including annual cereals (barley, wheat, and kerenza) and perennial olive orchards. Results show a clear negative correlation between NDVI and LST, confirming the regulatory role of vegetation on surface temperature. The downscaled LST maps reveal fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that is not detectable in the original Sentinel-3 product.

Quantitative evaluation indicates low absolute errors for annual crops (generally below 0.5 °C), demonstrating the robustness of the proposed method, while higher discrepancies observed for olive orchards highlight the complexity of perennial crop thermal behavior. This work enhances the spatial usability of satellite thermal data for agricultural monitoring and crop stress assessment.

How to cite: Boufous, B., Ben zhair, F., and Belaqziz, S.: Spatial Downscaling of Land Surface Temperature Using Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 Data Fusion for Agricultural Applications, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13366, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13366, 2026.

EGU26-13941 | Orals | GI2.1

Why Automated Mineralogy needed an upgrade 

Rich Taylor

Automated Mineralogy – the past

The automated classification of mineral phases in rocks has been a mainstay of the Geoscience analytical community for over 40 years. While we have seen great leaps forward in AI in µCT and light microscopy/petrography, the automated capabilities for the SEM have progressed and changed very little in decades, relying heavily on outdated methods that were available at the time.

The technology come with several significant problems moving forward, including excessive hardware-software dependencies, complex mineral libraries and classifications, inconsistent user experience, and difficult workflows outside their intended use.

 

Recent technological advances

There are two broad shifts that are taking place across a number of microscopy and microanalysis techniques – the acquisition of more quantitative data, and the application of deep learning neural networks. As a general trend this can be thought of as building better datasets, and building bigger datasets.

EDS as a SEM-based technique is fertile territory for both of these shifts. As an analytical technique EDS is commonly applied qualitatively, or as an image based method for distinguishing regions based on chemical maps. In recent years it has become easier than ever before to calibrate systems and detectors for concentration data, meaning the SEM can generate more robust datasets without having to fall back on other techniques.

Deep Learning is a topic that covers a broad range of mathematical applications to everything from the acquisition of microscopy datasets, through to data processing and interpretation across almost all sciences. There are many different flavours of deep learning neural network (DLNN) and each type lends itself to different applications, particularly in the varied data rich environments of microscopy. DLNN are inherently hard to track exactly how they operate, but at their best should be easy to use, and easy to understand how they’ve been applied to a scientific problem.

 

Automated Mineralogy – the future

The introduction of both quantitative mineral chemistry and DLNN to automated mineral classification is a huge leap forward, solving many of the problems of traditional software. Detaching data acquisition from processing removes software dependencies and frees users to build their ideal system. An DLNN-driven, unsupervised data processing approach can be data led rather than user led, making it more robust and consistent across instruments and facilities. Quantitative analysis can build on the DLNN approach by allowing a “best fit” classification, removing the need for constant modification of mineral libraries, and simply allowing “textbook” globally consistent mineral compositions to drive the labelling of segmented data.

How to cite: Taylor, R.: Why Automated Mineralogy needed an upgrade, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13941, 2026.

EGU26-14415 | ECS | Orals | GI2.1

Multi-agent Geochemical Literature Data Mining System 

Tianyu Yang, Karim Elezabawy, Daniel Kurzawe, Leander Kallas, Marie Traun, Bärbel Sarbas, Adrian Sturm, Stefan Möller-McNett, Matthias Willbold, and Gerhard Wörner

The increasing volume and complexity of geochemical literature pose major challenges for the sustainable curation of domain-specific databases such as GEOROC (Geochemistry of Rocks of the Oceans and Continents), the world’s largest repository of geochemical and isotopic data from igneous and metamorphic rocks and minerals, aggregating more than 41 million values from over 23,000 publications. Although GEOROC underpins a wide range of geoscientific research, the extraction and harmonization of metadata from publications still relies heavily on manual effort, which significantly limits the scalability.

In this contribution, we present a novel information extraction architecture that moves beyond linear processing pipelines toward an Large Language Model (LLM)-based multi-agent system combining document layout analysis, schema-driven reasoning, and modality-aware extraction. Unlike generic LLM approaches that treat documents as continuous text streams, our architecture adopts a "Visual-First" strategy. We utilize a layout-aware backbone (MinerU, Niu et al., 2025) to decompose PDF manuscripts into a sequence of geometrically grounded primitive blocks, each representing a localized document region with associated visual and typographic features, preserving the geometric grounding essential for interpreting complex data tables. A routing agent subsequently validates and refines the initial layout classification, dynamically dispatching blocks to specialized downstream agents for text, table, or figure processing. This adaptive routing strategy improves robustness against layout variability across journals, publication years, and formatting styles.

Central to the framework is an active schema agent that operationalizes the GEOROC metadata model. Rather than treating the database schema as a static template, this agent continuously provides extraction targets, normalization rules, unit standards, and conflict-resolution policies that guide all subsequent processing steps. Text blocks are handled by an  Optical Character Recognition (OCR) driven information extraction agent, table blocks by a table parsing agent capable of reconstructing complex table structures, and figure blocks by a visual reasoning agent designed to interpret diagrams and digitize plotted values. Each agent produces structured candidate values enriched with confidence estimates and fine-grained provenance, including page-level and bounding-box references to the original document.

The outputs of these modality-specific agents are consolidated by a merge-and-judge agent, which goes beyond simple aggregation. This agent performs cross-modal arbitration, unit harmonization, and deduplication, resolving conflicts between heterogeneous sources according to schema-defined priorities and data-quality criteria. The final result is a machine-readable JSON representation that preserves both extracted values and their evidential context.

By combining layout grounding, adaptive routing, schema-driven reasoning, and judgment-based integration, this system delivers a robust and extensible approach to large-scale metadata extraction. The framework substantially supports the curation process and strengthens GEOROC’s role as a FAIR-compliant reference infrastructure by enabling more efficient reuse of published geochemical data in future geochemical research.

References:

Niu, J., Liu, Z., Gu, Z., Wang, B., Ouyang, L., Zhao, Z., ... & He, C. (2025). Mineru2. 5: A decoupled vision-language model for efficient high-resolution document parsing. arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.22186.

How to cite: Yang, T., Elezabawy, K., Kurzawe, D., Kallas, L., Traun, M., Sarbas, B., Sturm, A., Möller-McNett, S., Willbold, M., and Wörner, G.: Multi-agent Geochemical Literature Data Mining System, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14415, 2026.

EGU26-14874 | ECS | Posters on site | GI2.1

Quartz grain microtexture analysis using Artificial Intelligence: application to tsunami and storm deposits provenance studies 

Natércia Marques, Pedro Costa, and Pedro Pina

Quartz grain surface microtextures observed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) provide important information on sediment transport history, depositional processes and sediment provenance. Traditionally, the interpretation of these features has relied upon qualitative visual assessment—an approach deeply rooted in expert judgement and cumulative experience. While fundamental, this methodology is inherently susceptible to subjectivity and inter-analyst variability. To counter balance this problem, we explore image-based classification approaches (utilizing Deep Learning frameworks) as a tool to support quartz microtextural analysis and assist in the identification of likely depositional environments thus establishing sediment provenance relationships.

A dataset of 3 367 SEM images was compiled, spanning a diverse range of sedimentary contexts: aeolian dunes, beach faces’, alluvial systems, basal sands, and nearshore, alongside with high-energy deposits from storm and tsunami events. Based on this dataset, five classification models were developed. Three were designed to discriminate between the full set of seven depositional classes, while two focused on a reduced classification scheme comprising four classes (alluvial, beach, dune and nearshore). All models were optimised using an increasing number of training epochs to assess the stability and evolution of classification performance. The results obtained were further examined in comparison with SandAI, an existing tool for microtexture classification, to evaluate its behaviour when applied to new sedimentary contexts and datasets acquired under different conditions.

The most consistent classification results were obtained for environments characterised by well-preserved and distinctive mechanical microtextures (e.g. aeolian sediments). Conversely, while environments defined by overlapping processes occasionally yielded higher nominal accuracies in QzTexNet (CNN-based models developed within the scope of this work), this is potentially attributed to their over-representation in the dataset. Analysis of classification outcomes indicates that microtextural overprinting, dataset imbalance and variations in image quality reduced the visibility of diagnostic features, thereby complicating the differentiation of depositional settings. Nevertheless, the data suggests that our models successfully capture sedimentologically meaningful patterns when surface textures remain clear. While SandAI showed stable performance within its original scope, its accuracy was limited, peaking at 47% for its target environments and dropping significantly when faced with complex deposits like tsunami or nearshore grains. In contrast, the newly developed QzTexNet models showed slightly more encouraging results, reaching accuracies of around 55% and demonstrating a steady improvement through successive refinements.

Ultimately, these findings demonstrate that automated classification offers a powerful complement to traditional analysis, particularly in ensuring reproducibility across large-scale datasets. Solely based on our database, it was observed that challenges regarding dataset equilibrium and textural complexity persist, targeted methodological refinements and supervised training hold significant potential. Such advancements represent a promising frontier in sedimentary provenance studies, particularly for the rigorous identification of deposits linked to extreme geological events.

This work is supported by FCT, I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC): LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020), UID/50019/2025(https://doi.org /10.54499/UID/PRR/50019/2025), UID/PRR2/50019/2025). Finally this work is a contribution to project iCoast (project 14796 COMPETE2030-FEDER-00930000).

How to cite: Marques, N., Costa, P., and Pina, P.: Quartz grain microtexture analysis using Artificial Intelligence: application to tsunami and storm deposits provenance studies, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14874, 2026.

Wildfires are increasingly reshaping landscapes across the U.S., disrupting hydrogeologic processes such as runoff, infiltration, and sediment transport—posing major challenges for streamflow prediction and water resource management. Traditional conceptual and physically based hydrologic models often struggle to capture these disturbance-driven dynamics. In this study, we explore the potential of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, a type of recurrent neural network, to simulate post-fire streamflow across 1,082 fire-affected basins spanning the contiguous U.S.—representing the first near-continental-scale application of LSTMs for wildfire-related hydrologic prediction. 

Three LSTM models were trained on different temporal splits of fifteen-year datasets containing wildfire events: one using pre-fire data, one using post-fire data, and one using the full dataset. Models were evaluated on unseen basins in both pre- and post-fire windows. Results show that the model trained on the full dataset consistently outperformed the others, underscoring the importance of temporally diverse training data that include disturbance events. Importantly, LSTMs demonstrated strong generalization across disturbed and undisturbed environments, highlighting their ability to learn hydrologic patterns beyond the constraints of traditional process-based modeling frameworks. 

Feature importance analysis revealed that topographic variables (e.g., elevation and slope) were most influential, followed by soil/geologic and vegetation characteristics, while fire-specific indicators (e.g., burn severity) ranked surprisingly low. This suggests that the LSTMs internalized key controls on streamflow response without heavy reliance on the explicit disturbance metrics included. To further isolate the model’s learned response to wildfire, simulations were performed with synthetic unburned conditions for each disturbed basin and compared against burned scenarios. Spatial analysis by EPA Level II ecoregion revealed that in the Southeastern U.S., Ozark/Appalachian Forests, and Mediterranean California, the model identified a persistent, multi-year increase in streamflow-lasting up to three years after wildfire. These regions share ecological characteristics such as high vegetation biomass, seasonal climate regimes, and terrain-driven hydrologic gradients that collectively amplify post-fire reductions in evapotranspiration and enhance runoff generation. In contrast, no significant streamflow change was detected in the Western Cordillera, South Central Prairies or Cold Desert ecoregions, where water-limited climates and lower fuel loads results in a dual-action response of hydrologic buffering and constrained post-fire increases in water yield.    

Together, these findings demonstrate that LSTMs can detect regionally coherent hydrologic responses to wildfire even in the absence of strong dependence on explicit disturbance features, highlighting the promise of AI-driven, data-centric approaches for modeling hydrologic change in an era of increasing disturbances. As wildfires and other extreme events become more frequent, integrating machine learning into hydrologic prediction frameworks offers a powerful pathway toward adaptive water resource management and improved resilience across diverse ecohydrologic settings. 

How to cite: Hogue, T., Moon, C., and Corona, C.: Quantifying Post‑Wildfire Hydrologic Response Using LSTMs: Ecoregion Patterns Across the Contiguous United States, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15295, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15295, 2026.

EGU26-15913 | ECS | Posters on site | GI2.1

AI-assisted Remote Sensing Screening of Potential Natural Hydrogen Seepage Features in Alta Guajira, Northern Colombia 

Miguel Angel Monterroza Montes, Stephanie San Martín Cañas, Boris Lora-Ariza, and Leonardo David Donado

Natural (geological) hydrogen refers to molecular hydrogen produced in the subsurface through abiotic and biogenic pathways, which may migrate, accumulate transiently, be consumed by secondary reactions, or escape to the surface. Increasing evidence indicates that such systems could be a strategic low-carbon energy source, but their exploration is limited as regional-scale, data-driven approaches to identify mechanisms of active or fossil migration in geologically complex environments are lacking. Surface expressions such as circular and sub-circular depressions associated with soil and vegetation anomalies have been reported worldwide as indirect indicators of hydrogen migration and leakage. However, their detection remains limited to either local reconnaissance of the field or manual interpretation of remote-sensing data. In this research, we present an AI-assisted remote sensing framework to conduct a regional screening based on the potential for natural hydrogen seepage patterns to enhance early-stage exploration and improve the quantitative characterization of surface indicators linked to subsurface energy systems. Deep-learning–based computer vision models are used to study high-resolution satellite imagery and automatically identify and classify circular and sub-circular geomorphological features that could correspond to hydrogen exudation. The resulting detections are integrated into a GIS framework for the extraction of morphometric and spatial statistics, providing a formal analytical benchmark to relate surface structures to lithology, structural configuration, and the regional tectonic setting. The workflow is applied to the Alta Guajira region (in northern Colombia), a geologically complex segment of the Caribbean margin characterized by accreted oceanic crust, major fault systems, and sedimentary depocenters that may favor hydrogen generation and migration. Using an AI-based approach allows the construction of a regional inventory of candidate seepage-related structures while significantly reducing false positives associated with purely morphology-based analyses. The results support the prioritization of targets for future field verification, geochemical sampling, and subsurface investigations. Beyond its implications for natural hydrogen prospectivity, the proposed methodology demonstrates how artificial intelligence can translate qualitative geological observations into quantitative, reproducible screening tools. By providing a transparent and spatially explicit representation of subsurface energy systems, AI-assisted screening also facilitates communication with stakeholders and local communities, contributing to informed public perception of emerging sustainable subsurface energy resources in data-limited regions such as Alta Guajira.

The researchers thank the SHATKI Research Project (code 110563), Contingent Recovery Contract No. 112721-042-2025, funded by the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (Minciencias) and the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH).

How to cite: Monterroza Montes, M. A., San Martín Cañas, S., Lora-Ariza, B., and Donado, L. D.: AI-assisted Remote Sensing Screening of Potential Natural Hydrogen Seepage Features in Alta Guajira, Northern Colombia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15913, 2026.

EGU26-16953 | ECS | Orals | GI2.1

Local Similarity-Driven Refinement for Model-Agnostic Ground-Based Cloud Detection 

Yangfan Hu, Pinglv Yang, Zeming Zhou, Ran Bo, Shuyuan Yang, and Guangyang Zhang

Cloud cover estimation is of crucial significance in meteorological observations and short-term/long-term weather forecasting, as it directly affects the accuracy of radiation balance assessment, precipitation prediction, and climate change modeling. Ground-based automated cloud quantification observation instruments enable continuous, high-resolution cloud monitoring with spatial-temporal continuity that satellite remote sensing cannot fully achieve, highlighting the immense value of ground-based cloud image processing for practical meteorological applications. However, existing cloud detection methods predominantly rely on supervised training with ground truth masks, which overlook the rich contextual information and inherent regularization constraints embedded in original cloud images. This oversight frequently results in mismatched cloud boundaries, inadequate model interpretability, and poor adaptability to complex cloud morphologies—particularly for thin clouds and cirrus clouds characterized by weak grayscale contrast, sparse texture, and irregular shapes. Consequently, these limitations lead to suboptimal detection performance, including under-segmentation or over-segmentation, and further induce inaccuracies in quantitative cloud cover estimation.

To address the aforementioned issues and achieve accurate cloud cover detection results, this study proposes a model-agnostic refinement method designed to optimize the coarse detection masks generated by any pre-trained cloud detection model. The framework is jointly optimized by three loss functions: a local similarity descriptor, total variation (TV) regularization, and a traditional detection loss (e.g., cross-entropy). Specifically, the local similarity descriptor is defined as the difference between two terms: the average grayscale difference of each pixel and cloud region and background pixels within a local window. This descriptor effectively enhances the discriminability between cloud and non-cloud regions at the local level. The total variation regularization term is introduced to maintain the smoothness of the detection boundary and suppress spurious noise. The cross-entropy loss ensures the overall consistency between the refined result and the ground truth.

Minimizing the combined loss function drives the coarse detection result to evolve adaptively along the actual cloud boundary, thereby achieving more precise alignment with the true cloud contours. Notably, the proposed framework elevates the detection of thin clouds and cirrus clouds, effectively mitigating missed detection areas in these tenuous cloud structures. Furthermore, the integrated loss function enhances model interpretability: the local similarity descriptor explicitly quantifies the differences within local window, and minimizing this term inherently refines the detection by strengthening the distinction between cloud and background regions. Ultimately, the refined detection results substantially improve the accuracy of cloud cover estimation, laying a solid foundation for reliable meteorological observations and weather forecasting applications.

How to cite: Hu, Y., Yang, P., Zhou, Z., Bo, R., Yang, S., and Zhang, G.: Local Similarity-Driven Refinement for Model-Agnostic Ground-Based Cloud Detection, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16953, 2026.

Earth Observation (EO) is an essential source of information for most geosciences. However, high costs, large data volumes, and difficult access constrained its use for decades. Open data programs like Copernicus have reduced costs, and cloud access via the Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (CDSE) has made local processing largely obsolete. In fact, API (Application Programming Interface)-based cloud access, analysis-ready mosaics and calibrated Copernicus Land Monitoring Service data products have made Sentinel data AI-ready. But despite these advances, the requirement for complex programming skills remained a significant barrier until recently. Here, we demonstrate how cloud-native processing APIs and generative artificial intelligence (AI) are removing this obstacle by enabling the "vibe coding" paradigm shift. Vibe coding is an approach to software development where the researcher focuses on the high-level logic, the functional vision, and the end product, while the syntax and code are generated and refined by AI.
Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem facilitates this transition through three key features: (1) the abstraction of EO analysis pipelines via RESTful APIs, which reduces tasks to a series of mathematical operations on pixel values; (2) the availability of intuitive web browser visualization for rapid prototyping and debugging; and (3) an extensive body of open documentation and code examples that serve as a robust training foundation for generative AI.
On CDSE, the Sentinel Hub API family utilizes "custom scripts" (or "evalscripts") — modular JavaScript files defining data inputs, outputs, calculations, and visualizations. The openEO API uses "process graphs", JSON representations of the processing steps in a unified structure as a series of nodes. Because the backend manages big data optimization and the browser handles rendering, these scripts are concise enough for AI assistants to generate, adapt, and debug effectively. The Sentinel Hub Custom Script Repository, containing over 200 community-contributed scripts, and the openEO community examples repository and CDSE "Algorithm Plaza" have laid the foundation for this approach. Neither of these advances was intentionally created to support AI, but rather to simplify programming for humans; however, combined, they enable a breakthrough in code development. We demonstrate how AI tools can efficiently adapt scripts across different satellite sensors, combine spectral indices into decision trees, and produce scalable quantitative outputs. This allows researchers not specialized in remote sensing to utilize existing code modules and natural language prompts to create meaningful results for their specific fields. Beyond the capabilities of Sentinel Hub, OpenEO supports joint analysis of data from multiple back-ends and the application of user-defined external code, such as biophysical models or pre-trained ONNX deep learning networks. While this added complexity presents a higher technical threshold, it also creates a massive opportunity for AI-driven automation. Ultimately, in combination with the public data space approach, generative AI further democratizes Earth Observation, transforming it from a specialist-only domain into an integrated component of all geoscience research workflows.

How to cite: Zlinszky, A.: From natural language to quantitative satellite imagery analysis: Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem and AI enable vibe coding of custom scripts, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18394, 2026.

EGU26-18939 | ECS | Posters on site | GI2.1

Evaluating Fractional Vegetation Cover using Multimodal Large Language Models: A Comparative study with Human Observations 

Omar A. Lopez Camargo, Mariana Elias Lara, Marcel El Hajj, Hua Cheng, Dario Scilla, Victor Angulo, Areej Al wahas, Kasper Johansen, and Matthew F. McCabe

Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC) is a key ecological variable for monitoring ecosystem health, land degradation, and vegetation dynamics in dryland environments. While satellite and UAV observations enable scalable FVC estimation over large spatial extents, the accuracy and robustness of these models remain strongly dependent on high-quality field-based reference data for calibration and validation. Traditional in-situ methods, including visual estimates using transect-based surveys, remain widely used but are labor-intensive and inherently subjective. Digital photography has emerged as a practical alternative, typically analyzed using index-based computer vision techniques or deep learning models. However, these methods are highly sensitive to background variability and therefore rely on massive labeled datasets. Recent advances in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) suggest a potential paradigm shift, as these models combine visual perception with high-level reasoning and benefit from diverse pre-training that enables conceptual knowledge transfer across tasks. In this study, we evaluate the feasibility of using MLLMs for direct estimation of FVC from ground-level photographs without task-specific training. We collected and compiled a dataset of more than 1,100 quadrat pictures from across 26 dryland sites in Saudi Arabia, spanning a wide range of surface conditions from bare soil to sparsely vegetated rangelands. Each picture corresponded to a 1 m × 1 m quadrat with FVC estimated independently by two experts, whose average was used as reference data for assessment of model predictions. Six state-of-the-art multimodal large language models, including Qwen2.5-VL, Mistral-Small-3.2, LLaMA-4-Maverick, LLaMA-4-Scout, and two Gemma-3 variants, were evaluated using four prompt designs that varied in length, ecological context, and methodological detail. Across all models and prompts, MLLMs achieved a mean absolute error of approximately 7.8%, demonstrating competitive performance relative to traditional image-based methods. The best-performing model-prompt combinations achieved mean absolute error values below 5%, with low systematic bias. Short and ecologically explicit prompts consistently outperformed more complex prompt designs, achieving an average reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) of approximately 1.3–1.4 percentage points compared to visually guided or highly structured prompts (MAE ≈ 6.9% versus 8.2–8.4%). Overall performance was more sensitive to model choice than to prompt structure, with mean MAE varying from approximately 5.6% to 10.0% across models, compared to a narrower range across prompts. The highest accuracy was obtained using the Qwen2.5-VL model with an ecologically detailed prompt, which achieved a mean absolute error of 4.9%, near-zero bias, and an RMSE of 8.4%. Across all prompt designs, Qwen2.5-VL and Mistral-Small-3.2 consistently delivered the best overall performance, both maintaining mean MAE values below 6% and exhibiting stable behavior across prompt variations, indicating robustness to prompt design. These results demonstrate that MLLMs can provide accurate and scalable FVC estimates directly from field photographs, without requiring specialized training datasets. This approach offers a promising alternative for rapid field surveys and reference data generation, particularly in dryland ecosystems where background complexity and data scarcity limit the effectiveness of conventional methods.

How to cite: Lopez Camargo, O. A., Elias Lara, M., El Hajj, M., Cheng, H., Scilla, D., Angulo, V., Al wahas, A., Johansen, K., and McCabe, M. F.: Evaluating Fractional Vegetation Cover using Multimodal Large Language Models: A Comparative study with Human Observations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18939, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18939, 2026.

Earth system is characterized by intricate interactions between human activities and natural processes, where stochastic dynamics, nonlinear feedbacks, and emergent behaviors collectively determine system evolution and sustainability outcomes. Despite significant advances in Earth system science, two fundamental challenges persist: the insufficient integration of physical process models with observational data, and the lack of interpretable frameworks for simulating coupled human-Earth dynamics and optimizing governance strategies. These limitations critically impede our ability to conduct effective Earth system governance and guide human-environment interactions toward sustainable development pathways. To overcome these challenges, this study proposes an innovative framework that synergistically integrates data assimilation and reinforcement learning to enhance both predictability and decision-making capabilities in the complex Earth system. Data assimilation, as a well-established methodology in Earth system science, systematically combines dynamic models with multi-source observations to improve system observability and forecast accuracy. Reinforcement learning, grounded in the Bellman equation and Markov decision processes, provides a natural paradigm for modeling adaptive human-environment interactions and deriving optimal strategies through sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Building upon these complementary methodologies, we develop a Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning (MADRL) framework that employs the Markov decision process as the theoretical foundation, integrates agent-based modeling to represent heterogeneous stakeholder behaviors across multiple organizational levels, utilizes deep neural networks to handle high-dimensional state-action spaces, and incorporates data assimilation techniques to continuously update system states and reduce forecast uncertainties. This integrated framework is specifically designed to address fundamental Earth system governance challenges by capturing emergent phenomena arising from complex human-environment interactions, enabling the exploration of intervention mechanisms such as economic incentives, regulatory policies, and cooperative arrangements, and providing interpretable decision pathways that balance economic development with environmental sustainability. Through this integration, our framework offers a systematic approach to tackle classical problems in Earth system governance, from the tragedy of the commons to planetary boundaries, ultimately advancing our capacity to navigate toward sustainable development trajectories in an increasingly coupled human-Earth system.

How to cite: Yuan, S. and Li, X.: Generalizing human-Earth systems modeling and decision-making: A multi-agent deep reinforcement learning framework, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19409, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19409, 2026.

EGU26-19427 | Posters on site | GI2.1

Improving the seismic catalogue completeness of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain) through deep learning 

Manuel Calderón-Delgado, Luca D’Auria, Aarón Álvarez-Hernández, Rubén García-Hernández, Víctor Ortega-Ramos, David M. van Dorth, Sergio de Armas-Rillo, Pablo López-Díaz, and Nemesio M. Pérez

The volcanic island of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain) is characterized by low-magnitude background seismicity associated with local hydrothermal and volcano-tectonic processes. The island has been experiencing, since 2016, a slight increase in seismic activity, with earthquakes generally having magnitudes below 2. For this reason, we are revising the seismic catalogue using deep learning tools to improve its completeness.

Over the last decade, machine learning methods—particularly deep learning approaches—have gained traction across multiple disciplines due to their increased computational efficiency, high accuracy, and reduced need for manual supervision. One such method, PhaseNet [1], is a deep convolutional neural network based on the U-Net architecture [2] that has shown strong performance in waveform-based seismic phase detection. Its ability to process large volumes of seismic data and automatically identify relevant signal features represents a significant opportunity to enhance the quality and completeness of seismic catalogs. Nevertheless, applying a neural network to data with a different nature from that used for its training phase can lead to a substantial decrease in performance. In particular, PhaseNet was primarily trained on tectonic seismicity, whereas seismic events in Tenerife are predominantly volcanic-hydrothermal. Consequently, retraining the network on waveforms representative of the target seismicity is essential to ensure a reliable inference.

Using PhaseNet as a baseline, we conducted an extensive comparative analysis of several training configurations to adapt the original network to the seismic data from the Canary Islands (Tenerife). Our study focused on four key aspects: model initialization, learning rate selection, data clustering strategies, and model partitioning. The model initialization strategies include fine-tuning from pre-trained weights and training from randomly initialized weights. Regarding model partitioning, we evaluated a global model (a single model trained on all data), local models (one model per station), and cluster-based models (trained on groups of stations with similar characteristics). The performance of each configuration was evaluated on an independent dataset using multiple metrics to provide a comprehensive assessment. Specifically, we analyzed precision, recall, and ROC curves to identify suitable trade-offs between detection sensitivity and specificity.

These preliminary results will be beneficial for subsequent analysis aimed at a better characterization of the island's microseismicity and its relationship with the activity of its volcanic-hydrothermal system.

References:

  • [1] Zhu and G. C. Beroza, “PhaseNet: a Deep-Neural-Network-Based seismic arrival time picking method,” Geophysical Journal International, Oct. 2018, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggy423.
  • [2] O. Ronneberger, P. Fischer, and T. Brox, “U-NET: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation,” in Lecture notes in computer science, 2015, pp. 234–241. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-24574-4_28.

 

How to cite: Calderón-Delgado, M., D’Auria, L., Álvarez-Hernández, A., García-Hernández, R., Ortega-Ramos, V., M. van Dorth, D., de Armas-Rillo, S., López-Díaz, P., and M. Pérez, N.: Improving the seismic catalogue completeness of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain) through deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19427, 2026.

EGU26-19439 | ECS | Posters on site | GI2.1

Onboard Hybrid Orbit Prediction with Lightweight Machine-Learning Error Correction 

Benedikt Aigner, Fabian Dallinger, Thomas Andert, and Benjamin Haser

Autonomous spacecraft operations are increasingly important as missions grow more complex, ground contact opportunities remain limited, and the number of LEO satellites continue to rise. Reliable onboard orbit determination (OD) and orbit prediction (OP) are essential for mission planning, resource allocation, and communication scheduling. Operational OD/OP typically relies on physics-based models that estimate parameters (initial state, drag coefficient, etc.) from tracking data. However, environmental modeling is not perfect, and uncertainties in atmospheric density can cause prediction errors to grow rapidly. This limits OP reliability.

We present an onboard-oriented hybrid OD/OP concept that augments a classical physics-based OD/OP chain with a lightweight machine-learning (ML) correction module to compensate for systematic OP errors in real time. While data-driven correction of propagator errors has been explored previously, this work emphasizes the tight integration of a compact correction model into an operational workflow under onboard constraints. The implementation is based on the Python OD/OP toolbox Artificial Intelligence for Precise Orbit Determination (AI4POD) and targets deployment within the Autonomous Space Operations Planner and Scheduler (ASOPS) experiment, that is planned for validation on the ATHENE-1 satellite.

The approach is demonstrated using simulated GPS-like tracking data generated with a high-fidelity reference model, while OD/OP are performed with a reduced-complexity model representative of onboard settings. A compact artificial neural network (ANN) is trained to predict OP errors in the RSW frame from available onboard data, reducing the maximum three-day along-track error from ~5 km to ~1.2 km.

To assess operational robustness, we complement the baseline results with a statistical consistency check of the residuals across all prediction cases and outline planned tests with additional ML/DL correction models.

How to cite: Aigner, B., Dallinger, F., Andert, T., and Haser, B.: Onboard Hybrid Orbit Prediction with Lightweight Machine-Learning Error Correction, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19439, 2026.

EGU26-19927 | ECS | Posters on site | GI2.1

Single- vs. Multilayer Physics-Informed Extreme Learning Machines for Orbit Determination 

Fabian Dallinger, Benedikt Aigner, Thomas Andert, and Benjamin Haser

Orbit Determination (OD) is commonly addressed with classical estimators such as Weighted Least Squares, which are statistically well founded but can be sensitive to poor initialization and may degrade when the initial state is weakly known. Physics-Informed Machine Learning offers an alternative by embedding orbital dynamics directly into the estimation process. In this work, Physics-Informed Extreme Learning Machines (PIELMs) are investigated as fast OD models that do not require a high-quality initial guess, since the output layer is obtained from a physics-based training objective that enforces consistency with both measurements and dynamics.

While single-layer PIELMs can achieve high accuracy, they may exhibit reduced stability in regimes with limited measurement support. To improve representational capacity and generalization, the Deep PIELM augments the model with an autoencoder-based feature hierarchy that is pretrained efficiently via the Moore–Penrose pseudoinverse, followed by physics-informed nonlinear least-squares optimization of the final layer.

Comparative results highlight the trade-offs among classical least squares, single-layer PIELM, and Deep PIELM in terms of OD accuracy, robustness under poor initialization, and computational efficiency under sparse optical and range measurements from a limited set of ground stations. For suitable hyperparameter configurations, the multilayer architecture provides improved stability and accuracy over the single-layer variant while retaining low training times, positioning Deep PIELMs as an effective complement to classical least-squares OD when robust performance without reliable initial guesses is required. The presented work is part of the Artificial Intelligence for Precise Orbit Determination project.

How to cite: Dallinger, F., Aigner, B., Andert, T., and Haser, B.: Single- vs. Multilayer Physics-Informed Extreme Learning Machines for Orbit Determination, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19927, 2026.

EGU26-20311 | ECS | Orals | GI2.1

Performance Comparison of Some Artificial Intelligence Algorithms for Metallic Mineral Deposits: A Case from Türkiye 

Gizem Karakas, Bahunur Civci, Birgul Topal, Candan Gokceoglu, Ahmet Ozcan, Cagri Erbasli, F. Sumeyye Cebeloglu, Murat Koruyucu, and Banu Ebru Binal

Recent advances in artificial intelligence and geospatial data analytics have led to an increasing adoption of data-driven approaches in the identification and prediction of mineral deposits. Traditional mineral exploration methods often rely on single data sources or expert-driven interpretations and may therefore be inadequate in regions where geological information is limited or spatially complex. In contrast, artificial intelligence–based approaches enable the quantitative assessment of mineral potential and the identification of spatial patterns associated with mineralization by jointly integrating multi-source geological, geophysical, and remote sensing data. Therefore, the comparative evaluation of different artificial intelligence algorithms using approaches that account for spatial dependence is critical for selecting reliable and interpretable models in early-stage mineral exploration conducted under data-limited conditions.

This study focuses on a comparative evaluation of artificial intelligence algorithms for predicting potential iron (Fe) mineralization under limited geological data conditions in a region with metallic mineralization potential in Türkiye. The study area covers approximately 2,340 km². A total of seven predictor variables were incorporated into the modeling, classified into geological (lithology, geological age, formation type), structural (fault density), geophysical (magnetic anomaly and gravity-tilt features), and remote sensing–based datasets (iron oxide potantial zones derived from ASTER imagery). The mineralization inventory is highly sparse, comprising only 15 iron occurrences and 24 non-iron reference points selected by geologists To address this limitation, a spatially aware hard negative mining strategy was applied, in which negative samples were preferentially selected from areas spatially proximal to known mineralization occurrences. Model performance was evaluated using GroupKFold-based spatial cross-validation to minimize bias arising from spatial autocorrelation, within which the Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost (XGB) algorithms were compared. The obtained results show that the RF and XGB models achieved mean Area Under Curve (AUC) values of 0.85 and 0.89, respectively. According to the generated mineral prospectivity maps, the Random Forest model delineates approximately 207.02 km² of high-potential areas (probability ≥ 0.90), while the XGBoost model identifies high-potential areas covering approximately 404.04 km² at the same probability threshold. These results indicate that there are pronounced differences in the spatial distribution of high-potential areas depending on the algorithm used. Additionally, the feature importance analysis revealed that geological age, magnetic anomaly, formation type, and gravity-tilt features are the primary controlling factors influencing the spatial distribution of iron mineralization.

This study outcomes revealed the importance of algorithm selection and spatially aware validation strategies in artificial intelligence–based mineral exploration. The findings indicate that reliable mineral prospectivity assessments can be achieved even under limited geological data conditions. Furthermore, in early-stage exploration programs, these approaches strengthen effective target area prioritization and decision-support processes and contribute to cost reduction through more efficient planning of exploration activities.

How to cite: Karakas, G., Civci, B., Topal, B., Gokceoglu, C., Ozcan, A., Erbasli, C., Cebeloglu, F. S., Koruyucu, M., and Binal, B. E.: Performance Comparison of Some Artificial Intelligence Algorithms for Metallic Mineral Deposits: A Case from Türkiye, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20311, 2026.

EGU26-20838 | ECS | Orals | GI2.1

AI-Based Quantification of Crack Geometry on Retaining Walls from Mobile Earth-Observation Imagery 

Yen-Chun Chiang, Shao-Chin Chu, and Guan-Wei Lin

Cracks on retaining walls and road surfaces can reveal the early warning signs of geohazards such as landslides or slumps in rural areas. However, even today, many governments still rely on manual visual inspection to identify and evaluate cracks, which is time-consuming, subjective, and highly dependent on individual experience. Artificial intelligence (AI) applied to Earth-observation imagery not only enables the detection of potentially dangerous cracks but also makes it possible to quantify their geometric properties, providing a more objective and quantitative basis for infrastructure monitoring and geohazard risk management.

Nevertheless, several key challenges remain. First, although recent studies have developed many advanced algorithms for crack detection and segmentation, methods for measuring crack width, length ,and area are still insufficient. Second, most existing models are designed for road cracks, while cracks on retaining walls present more complex textures, illumination conditions, and background noise, requiring dedicated model fine-tuning. Third, in regions with dense vegetation, branches, leaves, and shadows often produce false detections, making it difficult for AI models to distinguish real cracks from environmental interference.

In this study, we aim to quantify crack geometry from mobile panoramic Earth-observation imagery and to develop an AI model optimized for cracks on retaining walls in complex environments. A multi-stage approach is used to combine YOLO-based crack detection with 3D geospatial information for estimating the length, width, and area of individual cracks. By focusing on real cracks under vegetation-rich and noisy conditions, this approach advances AI-based quantitative analysis of surface degradation. These crack metrics provide a foundation for future retaining wall stability assessment and risk-informed infrastructure management.

How to cite: Chiang, Y.-C., Chu, S.-C., and Lin, G.-W.: AI-Based Quantification of Crack Geometry on Retaining Walls from Mobile Earth-Observation Imagery, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20838, 2026.

EGU26-22777 | Posters on site | GI2.1

AETHER: AI Enhancement for Third-gen Earth observing ImageR. Reaching 3x spatial upsampling and 10x temporal upsampling from existing MTG-I products. 

Nicolas Dublé, Sylvain Tanguy, Lucas Arsene, Vincent Poulain, Danaele Puechmaille, Oriol Hinojo Comellas, and Miruna Stoicescu

The Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) mission represents a major step forward in geostationary meteorological observation by combining, onboard Meteosat-12, multiple instruments with highly complementary characteristics. Among them, the Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) provides multispectral images of the full Earth disk every ten minutes with a spatial resolution reaching 1 km at nadir, while the Lightning Imager (LI) observes the same scene at a much higher temporal sampling, but with a coarser spatial resolution of approximately 4.5 km at nadir. Although designed for distinct operational purposes, these two sensors offer a unique opportunity for joint exploitation, as they observe identical atmospheric phenomena under fundamentally different spatio-temporal trade-offs. In this context, Thales investigates the use of artificial intelligence techniques to leverage this complementarity and generate enhanced observation products from existing MTG-I data. 

The core hypothesis of this work is that the high temporal density of LI observations implicitly encodes fine-scale spatial information. In other words, temporal correlations within LI time series can partially compensate for the sensor’s lower spatial resolution. By exploiting these correlations, fine spatial features can be reconstructed from high temporal frequencies. The availability of reference matching high resolution data enables to consider this process without the need for artificially degraded training data. 

To implement this hypothesis, a hybrid deep learning architecture combining convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and Transformers is proposed. CNN components are used to efficiently extract local spatial structures, such as gradients, cloud edges, and internal texture patterns, while Transformer-based attention mechanisms model short- and long-range temporal dependencies across successive LI acquisitions. This combination enables a joint representation of spatial detail and temporal coherence, while remaining compatible with large data volumes and near-operational processing constraints. 

The proposed approach is evaluated along two complementary scientific tasks. The first focuses on spatial super-resolution of LI images using LI temporal sequences alone. The second addresses the fusion of FCI and LI data to generate a product combining high spatial resolution with high temporal frequency. In both cases, the results are conclusive. The use of FCI images as a cross-reference makes it possible to assess the physical consistency of reconstructed features and to prevent the introduction of spurious, non-physical details. The super-resolved products remain radiometrically consistent with the input observations, with low radiance discrepancies (RMSE below 1), while recovering finer spatial structures than those achievable through conventional interpolation methods. Compared to standard SISR (Single Image Super Resolution), CNN + Temporal Conv1D, CNN + sparse Conv3D approaches, the hybrid CNN–Transformer model achieves the best overall performance. 

As a perspective, the proposed method shows strong potential for operational deployment. Its computational efficiency allows approximately one hour of MTG data—corresponding to about sixty full-disk Earth images—to be processed in less than five minutes on standard computing infrastructure with one Nvidia H-100 configuration, paving the way for the routine generation of high-resolution, high-frequency products from existing geostationary missions. 

How to cite: Dublé, N., Tanguy, S., Arsene, L., Poulain, V., Puechmaille, D., Hinojo Comellas, O., and Stoicescu, M.: AETHER: AI Enhancement for Third-gen Earth observing ImageR. Reaching 3x spatial upsampling and 10x temporal upsampling from existing MTG-I products., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22777, 2026.

Using a new global seismological analysis technique designed to detect long-lasting coherent signals, we identify both previously known and entirely unrecognized resonant-like seismic emissions at periods longer than 10 seconds. A detailed examination of these signals allows us to locate their sources with remarkable precision. Strikingly, they cluster in offshore sedimentary basins near major river fans and beneath ice-covered regions. Although their resonant character resembles classic volcanic tremor, the source locations indicate that they are not associated with any known volcanic system.

A careful analysis of their frequency content, spatial distribution, and radiation patterns instead suggests that these signals may originate from the resonance of fluids within shallow subsurface reservoirs. This interpretation aligns with the presence of large volumes of gas, oil, and water in thick sedimentary basins, and with seafloor seepage structures that release substantial amounts of naturally generated fluids from depths of roughly 5–10 km.

By tracking the temporal evolution of these signals, we also identify a pronounced seasonal modulation that mirrors oceanic variability. This observation points to a significant coupling between the oceans and the solid Earth, potentially mediated by static or dynamic stress transfer.

The detection of these newly recognized signals opens a promising path toward probing the largely unexplored dynamics of sedimentary layers and their sensitivity to external environmental forcing. More broadly, these findings introduce a new class of geophysical observables capable of revealing how the shallow lithosphere responds to, and interacts with, oceanic processes on seasonal to long-term timescales.

How to cite: Poli, P. and Takano, T.: Detection and characterization of resonant signals in global seismology: Evidence for shallow fluid reservoirs and their interaction with the oceans, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1453, 2026.

EGU26-4482 | ECS | Orals | GM2.1

Frequency-Resolved Seismic Source Localization in Fluvial Settings Using Dense Arrays 

Samidha Venkatesh Revankar, Florent Gimbert, and Alain Recking

Monitoring dynamic surface processes such as sediment transport and turbulence during high-flow events remains a major challenge in fluvial geomorphology. Seismic methods provide a non-invasive alternative, but robust source localisation is challenged by the distributed nature of fluvial sources, heterogeneous shallow structures, and the broadband character of the signals they produce. Because turbulence and bedload dominate different parts of the spectrum, we require broadband analysis. We establish a generalised framework for frequency-resolved seismic source localisation using dense arrays and matched field processing. We introduce a hybrid processing strategy that exploits the array differently across frequencies: full-network matched field processing at low frequencies, where coherence spans the entire aperture, and sub-array averaging at higher frequencies, where coherence is confined to local scales. We apply the framework to a field case, where we retrieve frequency-dependent source regions across the active channel and separate low-frequency turbulent noise from higher-frequency bedload impacts. We conduct synthetic tests to quantify localisation uncertainty as a function of frequency, sensor density, and signal-to-noise ratio. Across the 2-40 Hz range, we find that localisation uncertainty varies from a few metres at low frequencies to more than 100 m at high frequencies, reflecting the expected loss of resolution at shorter wavelengths. By quantifying these trade-offs, we provide practical guidance for future deployments, including sensor spacing and array geometry required to achieve a target resolution.

How to cite: Venkatesh Revankar, S., Gimbert, F., and Recking, A.: Frequency-Resolved Seismic Source Localization in Fluvial Settings Using Dense Arrays, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4482, 2026.

EGU26-5278 | ECS | Posters on site | GM2.1

Spatiotemporally evolving particle impact rates in sediment-generated acoustic signals 

Zheng Chen, Dieter Rickenmann, Fabian Walter, Brian McArdell, Jiahui Kang, Christoph Wetter, and Alexandre Badoux

High-frequency acoustic and seismic signals generated by granular flows, such as bedload transport and debris flows, provide valuable information on sediment dynamics, yet the physical interpretation remains challenging. In dense or partially dense solid-fluid granular flows, signal generation is controlled not only by particle-bed impacts but also by frequent inter-particle collisions within the actively shearing layer. These collisions are shear-driven and evolve rapidly in time and space, with impact rates being highly sensitive to shear strain rate, time, and granular layer thickness. However, most existing particle impact rate models assume stationary conditions and neglect the spatiotemporal variability inherent in natural geophysical flows, limiting the ability to explain observed non-stationary spectral signatures. Here, we develop a new analytical framework for particle impact rate in solid-fluid two-phase granular flows based on non-equilibrium thermodynamics. The model explicitly links collision rate to shear strain rate, granular state variables, and the thickness of the basal shearing layer, allowing impact rates to evolve dynamically in time and space. Reformulating the model in the frequency domain provides a direct theoretical connection between evolving collision rates and the spectral properties of the generated acoustic and seismic signals. For saturated channel beds, we further investigate the two-way coupling between pore water pressure and particle impacts in signal generation. Particle impacts are conceptualized as transient mechanical sources that locally compact the granular skeleton, reduce pore volume, and generate excess pore pressure, which in turn feeds back on particle impacts. Analytical solutions demonstrate that the amplitude and persistence of impact-induced pore pressure perturbations are controlled by bed permeability, shear strain rate, and the thickness of the basal shear layer. An increase in pore pressure reduces effective stress and feeds back on collision dynamics, introducing an additional control on signal generation. Building on these results, we extend existing power spectral density formulations to show that temporally evolving particle impact rates modulate frequency spectra by redistributing spectral power across frequences, resulting in departures from classical spectral scaling. Pore pressure effects further modify spectral amplitudes and attenuation. The proposed framework offers new physical insights into sediment-generated signals, enabling improved interpretation of evolving particle impact rates and pore pressure related effects in bedload transport and debris flows.

How to cite: Chen, Z., Rickenmann, D., Walter, F., McArdell, B., Kang, J., Wetter, C., and Badoux, A.: Spatiotemporally evolving particle impact rates in sediment-generated acoustic signals, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5278, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5278, 2026.

EGU26-6957 | Posters on site | GM2.1

Seismic signatures of large river dynamics revealed by a dense seismic array at the Tiger Leaping Gorge of the Jinsha River, SE Tibet 

Xiaodong Yan, Hui Tang, Jing Liu-Zeng, Jens Turowski, Yan Wang, Jinglei Yang, Jichuan Wang, and Qi Zhou

Fluvial seismology is an emerging field that exploits seismic signals generated by fluvial processes to monitor bedload transport and flow turbulence. Currently, most previous studies have focused on small mountain rivers, while seismic signatures from large rivers remain poorly explored. The Tiger Leaping Gorge is a deeply incised, narrow gorge in the upper Yangtze River characterized by extreme topographic relief and intense fluvial incision. Over a river length of approximately 20 km, the riverbed elevation drops by ~200 m, and the maximum discharge can reach ~5000 m³ s⁻¹, making the gorge an exceptional natural laboratory for investigating the coupling between seismic signals and hydrodynamic processes in large rivers. Until March 2022, we deployed 35 seismic stations along the riverbanks of the Tiger Leaping Gorge to continuously monitor the actively incising river segment.

We analyzed eight months of continuous seismic data along the river channel. In contrast to observations from small rivers, we identify two distinct and well-separated seismic energy bands at most stations. Temporal variations in both frequency bands show strong correlations with river discharge. We interpret the higher-frequency energy band as being primarily generated by small-scale eddy interacting with a rough riverbed, a process that appears to be particularly pronounced in large rivers. Building on existing models of turbulence-generated and bedload-generated seismic signals, we further tested different inversion approaches and applied them to all stations in the array. This allowed us to reconstruct the spatiotemporal variations in river stage and bedload transport across the study area.

Our results reveal that large rivers exhibit seismic signal characteristics controlled by distinct flow-related mechanisms, a phenomenon that has not been fully recognized in previous studies of small-scale rivers. Moreover, this study demonstrates that dense seismic arrays can resolve river dynamic processes at high spatial and temporal resolution, highlighting the potential of fluvial seismology for monitoring large river systems.

How to cite: Yan, X., Tang, H., Liu-Zeng, J., Turowski, J., Wang, Y., Yang, J., Wang, J., and Zhou, Q.: Seismic signatures of large river dynamics revealed by a dense seismic array at the Tiger Leaping Gorge of the Jinsha River, SE Tibet, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6957, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6957, 2026.

EGU26-9430 | Posters on site | GM2.1

Seismic monitoring of sediment transport during flash floods:  Case studies of Storms Alex and Aline on the Roya river, France 

Marie-Odile Dib, Malgorzata Chmiel, Margot Chapuis, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Morgan Abily, Diego Mercerat, and Françoise Courboulex

In mountain catchments, floods can mobilize large amounts of sediment, yet monitoring these events remains a major challenge. Understanding the processes governing sediment transport during extreme floods, such as flood waves and sediment pulses, is key to improving our understanding of rapid erosion dynamics. Environmental seismology offers a powerful approach to detect and quantify these processes remotely and continuously with high temporal resolution.

The Mediterranean basin is characterized by a climate and topography prone to flash floods. The objective of this work is to quantify the sediment transport that occurred during the extreme flooding associated with Storm Alex (October 2020), and the subsequent major flood caused by Storm Aline (October 2023), on the Roya River in southeast France.

To address this objective, we use seismic measurements from a single-component geophone (natural frequency of 4.5 Hz) installed at 5 m from the Roya River. We apply previously developed physical models describing the seismic power generated by river bedload transport (saltation model) and turbulent flow. Comparison with model predictions suggests that, at such short distances, the recorded seismic power is dominated by the bedload process, allowing us to focus on the saltation model.

To quantify the sediment transport during periods of peak seismic amplitude, we calibrate the parameters of the saltation model to the Roya River context. Although the resulting volumetric sediment flux is consistent in order of magnitude with theoretical and empirical estimates, the complexity of the physical environment calls for further investigation. Seismic parameters of the riverbed, realistic grain size distributions of transported sediments, and local hydrometric data remain difficult to constrain directly. We address these uncertainties through sensitivity analyses, which show that seismic medium parameters mainly control the shape of the seismic spectrum. We therefore explore the use of real data that we obtain from an active and passive seismic experiment to adjust those parameters

Water depth is another key parameter of the saltation model, as it controls the basal shear stress. We estimate flow depth using upstream discharge measurements and local discharge modeling with simplified theoretical relationships between flow depth, river width, and discharge. Ongoing and future work includes seismic array measurements and local hydraulic modelling to further constrain model parameters. Overall, our results highlight the potential of environmental seismology to quantify sediment transport during extreme flash floods and to improve process-based understanding of sediment transfer in steep Mediterranean river systems.

How to cite: Dib, M.-O., Chmiel, M., Chapuis, M., Ampuero, J.-P., Abily, M., Mercerat, D., and Courboulex, F.: Seismic monitoring of sediment transport during flash floods:  Case studies of Storms Alex and Aline on the Roya river, France, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9430, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9430, 2026.

EGU26-9446 | ECS | Posters on site | GM2.1

Liquefied Deposition Layers Modulate Seismic Wave Propagation in Surge-type Debris Flows 

Fengrun Jiang and Dongri Song

Surge-type debris flows advance through successive surges, during which in-channel deposition layers progressively develop between surges and continuously modify basal conditions. Seismic observations from Jiangjia Ravine show that ground vibration amplitudes systematically weaken as surge sequences evolve, even when successive surges exhibit similar flow magnitudes, implying a breakdown in the conventional scaling between flow intensity and seismic response. This phenomenon is interpreted as a consequence of the progressive buildup and partial liquefaction of inter-surge deposition layers, rather than the influence of static, pre-existing bed deposits. To represent this process quantitatively, we introduce an effective transmission parameter (ξ) into a fluvial seismology framework and establish a sigmoid relationship between ξ and the normalized thickness of the deposition layer (H*). Incorporating this relationship substantially enhances the ability to reproduce observed variations in seismic power spectral density (PSD) across surge sequences and offers a transferable means of capturing subsurface flow–bed coupling. These results highlight the importance of dynamic bed evolution in controlling debris-flow-generated seismic signals and provide new insights for improving real-time monitoring and early-warning strategies in sediment-laden mountain catchments.

How to cite: Jiang, F. and Song, D.: Liquefied Deposition Layers Modulate Seismic Wave Propagation in Surge-type Debris Flows, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9446, 2026.

EGU26-9607 | ECS | Posters on site | GM2.1

Typhoon-driven Near-surface Groundwater Dynamics Revealed by Ambient Noise in the Mountain Watershed 

Cheng-Hua Tsai, Ci‐Jian Yang, Luc Illien, and Li-Wei Chen

Near-surface groundwater dynamics (NSGD) reflect residence and recharge of the terrestrial water and control the water resource of the downstream area. Environmental seismology, using seismic velocity changes (dv/v), provides a non-invasive approach to observe NSGD. Here, we use ambient seismic noise at four seismic stations, hydraulic, and meteorological records from the Liwu watershed, Taiwan, following Typhoon Kompasu in 2021 to investigate NSGD in response to typhoon rainfall. We used the single-station cross-component (SC) method to construct daily correlation functions, and dv/v was computed by the stretching method in the frequency band of 4–8 Hz. Moreover, we simulated dv/v using a near-surface layer of limited storage capacity and adjusted hydraulic conductivity (Ks). Our results indicate that peak dv/v at the downstream station was about four times that at the divide, with recovery to pre-typhoon levels taking 29 days, compared to 8 days at the divide station. Simulated Ks shows that hydraulic conductivity values higher than borehole-derived estimates are required to best capture the observed dv/v responses, indicating the preferential flow may be via colluvium and fractured bedrock in the study site. In short, a five-day typhoon produced nearly one month of NSGD, demonstrating that near-surface groundwater may function as a temporary storage zone for deep groundwater. These results demonstrate that ambient seismic noise can resolve short-term subsurface water dynamics during extreme events, offering new constraints on water residence times and aquifer structure that are relevant for disaster management and biogeochemical studies in mountainous watersheds.

How to cite: Tsai, C.-H., Yang, C., Illien, L., and Chen, L.-W.: Typhoon-driven Near-surface Groundwater Dynamics Revealed by Ambient Noise in the Mountain Watershed, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9607, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9607, 2026.

EGU26-9649 | ECS | Orals | GM2.1

 Observing subglacial bedload transport dynamics with on-ice seismic networks on Glacier d’Otemma, Switzerland 

Eva Wolf, Davide Mancini, Michael Dietze, Eleonore Stutzmann, Jean-Philippe Metaxian, and Stuart Lane

The manner by which glaciers evacuate the products of erosion is poorly known, especially for the coarser-sized sediments produced by plucking and quarrying, that is the bedload fraction. It has traditionally been assumed that bedload export from Alpine glaciers is relatively efficient. However, continuous, seismic measurements of bedload transport at glacier portals question this assumption as do the results of numerical modelling experiments. There are a number of possible hypotheses to explain such inefficiency, including the structure and geometry of subglacial channels, periodic variation in discharge due to diurnal melt cycles and near-ice margin effects. The problem remains, however, that there are no published datasets on subglacial bedload transport to investigate the effects, not surprising because of the challenges associated with measuring it. The aim of this research is to harness environmental seismology to quantify subglacial bedload transport rates for the first time using on-ice measurements.

In the first part of the project, we traced the location and development of two subglacial channels of Glacier d’Otemma, Valais, Switzerland. In this study, we investigate the discharge and sediment traveling in our identified channels. With the help of thirty seismic sensors on the glacier surface and at the glacial terminus, we record the seismic activity of Glacier d’Otemma during its melt season in 2024. We trace the path the sediment takes underneath the glacier with seismic beamforming techniques and relate it to the previously identified shape of the subglacial drainage system. A line of seismic sensors along the glacier was able to record waves of bedload as they travel underneath the ice. With the help of physical models, the spectral information of the ground motion data is translated into sediment transport and discharge quantities. The project contributes to reveal the interaction of sediment and the characteristics of subglacial drainage system in alpine glaciers, giving further insights into erosion mechanisms at play.

How to cite: Wolf, E., Mancini, D., Dietze, M., Stutzmann, E., Metaxian, J.-P., and Lane, S.:  Observing subglacial bedload transport dynamics with on-ice seismic networks on Glacier d’Otemma, Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9649, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9649, 2026.

EGU26-9781 | ECS | Orals | GM2.1

A Robust Framework for Clustering Variable-Length Seismic Events: A Cryogenic Case Study  

Antonia Kiel, Conny Hammer, and Vera Schlindwein

Long-term seismic monitoring provides a unique insight into glacier and ice-shelf dynamics. However, the extraction of meaningful cryoseismic information from continuous multi-year records remains challenging. Icequake events frequently show unclear or overlapping signals due to harsh environmental conditions and persistent background activity. While the utilisation of variable event lengths can be instrumental in the avoidance of merging multiple events into a single window, most unsupervised learning methods require fixed input durations. This emphasises the necessity for a novel unsupervised clustering approach that can handle time-variant events of varying lengths while robustly detecting outliers. The method should be physics-based to accommodate the limited prior knowledge of icequake characteristics. It should also operate directly on large event catalogues, without reliance on handcrafted features.

To address this issue, the incrementally buffered dynamic time warping clustering is introduced. This is a new approach to clustering dynamic time warping (DTW) distances of events and it incorporates the requirements stated above. The method starts with an initial k-medoids clustering on a pairwise DTW distance matrix of a subset of events, thereby generating initial k clusters. The subsequent addition of new samples is based on a statistically robust distance threshold from the distribution in within-cluster distances of the initial step. Each event is compared only to existing medoids, assigned to the nearest cluster if the DTW distance falls below the threshold, or temporarily placed in a buffer when classified as an outlier. The promotion of buffered events to new clusters is only permitted when the criteria for similarity and minimum sample count are met, thus preventing the formation of spurious clusters from isolated noise events. Lastly, a final global reassignment step is performed. This step involves the recomputation of all event-to-medoid distances. The purpose of this is to stabilise cluster boundaries and refine the catalogue. The combination of these steps results in a scalable and transparent algorithm that is well-suited to the analysis of extensive environmental time-series data.

The present study applies this framework to a time span of several years of vertical-component seismic data from the 16-sensor Watzmann array at Neumayer Station III, Antarctica. Preliminary results indicate the presence of numerous persistent families of icequakes. These are analysed with regard to their correlation with environmental conditions, including tidal modulation and wind.

How to cite: Kiel, A., Hammer, C., and Schlindwein, V.: A Robust Framework for Clustering Variable-Length Seismic Events: A Cryogenic Case Study , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9781, 2026.

EGU26-10606 | Posters on site | GM2.1

Surveying and modelling the distributed effects of wind and rain 

Michael Dietze

Atmospheric effects, specifically wind and precipitation, are often considered as dominant sources of noise in seismic records, both in the high frequency and ultra low frequency domain. However, those two processes are also important drivers of geomorphic activity: wind causing advective processes, aeolian transport and erosion, tree uprooting, and energy transfer from the atmosphere to the ground. Precipitation, specifically rain, controls splash erosion, surface sealing through puddling, soil moisture, groundwater fluctuations, and importantly, the initiation of surface flow and resulting flood and sediment transport waves. Despite their widespread reflection in seismic data sets, especially in the context of environmental seismology studies, there is surprisingly little valorisation of the signal content associated with these two environmental variables. Here, I show case study based examples of the different signatures of wind and rain in seismic data sets to illustrate the systematic variability arising from different process modes, intensities and types of interaction with elements of the Critical Zone. I make use of physical models of rainfall and modified models of wind interaction with open ground and trees, to explore the information that can be extracted from seismic data sets by inverting those models in combination.

How to cite: Dietze, M.: Surveying and modelling the distributed effects of wind and rain, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10606, 2026.

EGU26-11529 | ECS | Orals | GM2.1

Seismoacoustic Localization and Source Level Estimation of Blue Whale Calls in the Gulf of St. Lawrence 

Eva Goblot, Romina Gehrmann, David Barclay, Katherine Indeck, Alexandre Plourde, Elahe Sirati, and Mladen Nedimović

Quantifying the source levels and localizing blue whale vocalizations in the Gulf of St. Lawrence is essential for effective management of this endangered population in a region of intense shipping activity. We present an innovative study leveraging data from diverse observational platforms, i.e., ocean bottom seismometers and underwater gliders. Since 2019, gliders equipped with hydrophones have been deployed every summer in the Honguedo Strait shipping lane between Gaspé and Anticosti Island, in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, to trigger mitigation measures when detecting North Atlantic right whales. These platforms have recorded acoustic signals produced by many other whale species, including the endangered Northwest Atlantic (NWA) blue whale, for which similar mitigation measures have not been established. This is because the source level of NWA blue whale vocalizations (e.g. Arch calls) and their detection range from gliders in the region remain unquantified. Yet, these parameters are necessary for cetacean density estimation and for evaluating the feasibility of using this call type for dynamic management frameworks. We take advantage of four ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) on which NWA blue whale calls were detected. We analyse a 1-hour subset of 79 Arch calls that were co-detected on glider and OBS data. The vocalizing whale is localized using a time-difference-of-arrival approach with a coupled ocean-acoustic model that incorporated spatially varying bathymetry, sound speed, and sediment properties. Received levels at each OBS were calibrated using a transfer function, derived from simultaneous particle-velocity and pressure measurements, to quantify the response of the seismometer to the waterborne acoustic wave. Source levels were then estimated using the calibrated received levels and a parabolic equation transmission loss model configured to the environment along the source-receiver path. Preliminary results from our case study demonstrate that Arch calls can be detected in the Northwest Gulf up to 125 km and 150 km from an OBS and glider, respectively, where the difference is primarily explained by the receiver’s position in the water column. The measured acoustic features of Arch calls suggest propagation similarities to infrasonic blue whale vocalizations (i.e., songs). These findings have ecological implications and can inform management strategies in an area heavily used by both whales and vessels.

How to cite: Goblot, E., Gehrmann, R., Barclay, D., Indeck, K., Plourde, A., Sirati, E., and Nedimović, M.: Seismoacoustic Localization and Source Level Estimation of Blue Whale Calls in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11529, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11529, 2026.

EGU26-12096 | ECS | Posters on site | GM2.1

Seismic Transients of Internal Deformation in an Active Rockslide (Spitze Stei, Switzerland): First Insights from a Dense Seismic Nodal Array  

Bivas Das, Małgorzata Chmiel, Francoise Courboulex, Fabian Walter, Xavier Martin, Juan-Sebastián Osorno-Bolívar, Christian Kienholz, Gabriela Arias, and Martijn van den Ende

The unstable rock slope "Spitze Stei" (Kandersteg, Switzerland) has shown significantly increased activity for several years. Since 2018, observed displacement rates can exceed 40 cm per day seasonally. The instability covers a total area of ​​approximately half a square km. The volume of the moving rock and debris mass is ~16 million m3, distributed across several rock compartments. Driven by degrading permafrost and enhanced gliding planes, these primary gravitational instabilities result in secondary, often destructive, debris flows into the Oeschibach channel. While continuous monitoring is essential for risk management, traditional visual and radar methods are often constrained by adverse weather conditions, limited temporal resolution and limited sensitivity to subsurface processes. To overcome these limitations and monitor rockslide internal deformation, material damage, and ongoing mass-movement processes at high spatial resolution, a dense temporary seismic network consisting of 64 SmartSolo nodes (natural frequency 5 Hz) were deployed across the slope at the end of June 2025 and operated for nearly three months. This dataset is complemented by recordings from three semi-permanent seismometers that have been operating since October 2021, providing a longer-term reference for background seismicity and site-specific noise characteristics.

We analyze the continuous seismic records to detect and characterize signals from a variety of mass-movement phenomena, including rockfalls, granular flows, debris flows and avalanche-related activity. Signals are evaluated based on waveform properties, duration, amplitude evolution, and spectral content, with comparisons across sensor types and periods. A key objective is to isolate and cluster internal microseismic activity, distinguishing it from background noise, external sources (e.g., icequakes), and transient permafrost-related signals.

Our preliminary results highlight a diverse set of seismic signal types linked to both surface processes and internal rockslide dynamics. This observed variability suggests changes in deformation style across different rock compartments, demonstrating the potential of dense nodal seismic arrays to resolve internal rockslide processes relevant for hazard monitoring.

How to cite: Das, B., Chmiel, M., Courboulex, F., Walter, F., Martin, X., Osorno-Bolívar, J.-S., Kienholz, C., Arias, G., and van den Ende, M.: Seismic Transients of Internal Deformation in an Active Rockslide (Spitze Stei, Switzerland): First Insights from a Dense Seismic Nodal Array , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12096, 2026.

EGU26-12146 | ECS | Posters on site | GM2.1

Building a Demonstration Tsunami alert system in the Uummannaq fjord, Greenland 

Dario Jozinović, John Clinton, Frédérick Massin, Leonard Seydoux, Eva Mätzler, and Jonas Petersen

Iceberg calving and near-shore landslides in Greenland produces seiches in the fjords - standing tsunami-like waves on the order of minutes of period that resonate for hours (or even days in extreme cases, see Svennevig et al., 2024), and can pose danger to the population and cause damage to infrastructure in the villages. For more than a decade, it has been known that broadband seismic sensors on-shore are sensitive to the ground tilt induced by these waves (Amundsen et al., 2012). Seiches are typically seen in seismic data as very long period waves that last tens of minutes to hours. This means that a network of on-shore seismic sensors can be employed to provide a tsunami early warning (TEW) system for both on-site and network-wide TEW. A major advantage of seismic networks over pressure gauges is the fact that the sensors are not exposed to the destructive forces of sea ice and icebergs, which are abundant in many regions of Greenland. In this work we demonstrate how a seismic network in the Uummannaq fjord (Greenland) can be used to provide TEW to the villages in the fjord. We further demonstrate an algorithm that allows detecting seiches and discriminating them from other sources of long-period signals (mostly large teleseismic earthquakes). Such an algorithm, however, can be significantly affected by corrupted data (spikes, steps, etc.), which produce false alarms. We then demonstrate how we can remove these false triggers using a deep scattering network (Seydoux et al., 2020). Our results show that we can detect seiches with little false alarms and provide timely TEW in the Uummannaq fjord, including the 2017 Nuugatsiaq landslide. We also demonstrate our implementation of the developed TEW algorithm into a real-time system in SeisComP. 

How to cite: Jozinović, D., Clinton, J., Massin, F., Seydoux, L., Mätzler, E., and Petersen, J.: Building a Demonstration Tsunami alert system in the Uummannaq fjord, Greenland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12146, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12146, 2026.

EGU26-12535 | ECS | Posters on site | GM2.1

Frequency-dependent seismic response to hydrological and bedload forcing in a glacier-fed stream 

Flavia Marini, Marco Piantini, Francesco Comiti, Matteo Bertagni, and Carlo Camporeale

Proglacial streams that drain Alpine glaciers are characterized by variable hydrological forcing and highly intermittent sediment transport, making continuous monitoring of hydro-sedimentary processes necessary to understand their dynamics. Near-field seismic monitoring has recently been established as a valid non-invasive approach to studying river dynamics, since ground vibrations are sensitive to both flow turbulence and bedload transport.

In this study, we analyse the seismic response of a proglacial stream fed by the Rutor Glacier, the sixth-largest glacier in the Italian Alps, integrating passive seismic monitoring with hydrological and climatic observations. Three geophones were installed close to the active channel and continuously recorded ground vibrations at 200 Hz during the 2025 ablation season (June–September). The seismic power spectral density was analysed across different frequency bands. Water level was monitored using pressure sensors, while discharge was estimated using saline dilution tests, allowing the relationship between seismic signals and hydrological forcing to be investigated.

The preliminary results show marked diurnal fluctuations in water level driven by glacial melt. At low frequencies (5–15 Hz), seismic power increases predominantly linearly with water level, suggesting a dominant control by water flow turbulence. In contrast, at relatively high frequencies (30–40 Hz), the seismic response becomes nonlinear and exhibits a clear change in slope when a critical water level is exceeded, suggesting the activation and/or intensification of bedload transport superimposed on the hydraulic signal.

This study highlights the potential of environmental seismology as a non-invasive and continuous monitoring approach to investigate hydro-sedimentary dynamics in highly variable proglacial environments.

How to cite: Marini, F., Piantini, M., Comiti, F., Bertagni, M., and Camporeale, C.: Frequency-dependent seismic response to hydrological and bedload forcing in a glacier-fed stream, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12535, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12535, 2026.

EGU26-15481 | Posters on site | GM2.1

Field-scale artificial channel experiments for fluvial DAS observations 

Wei-An Chao, Chi-Yao Hung, Yu-Shiu Chen, and Su-Chin Chen

Understanding river sediment transport, and bedrock incision remains a major challenge in fluvial geomorphology Capturing their full temporal dynamics requires long-term monitoring of experimental catchments. This study explores the potential of Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) technology to advance our understanding of fluvial sediment transport and riverbed evolution. DAS not only records strain or strain rates at meter-scale resolutions, similar to riverine dense geophone arrays but also captures a broad frequency range (mHz to kHz), comparable to hydrophones. Two experiments were conducted in meandering and straight artificial channels, with boundaries lined by waterproof membranes and stone protections, allowing for systematic effects of boundary and meandering shape. The experimental channels had a trapezoidal cross section, with widths ranging from approximately 2 to 4 m and bed slopes of 4–5°. During the experiments, the maximum flow depth reached about 0.3–0.4 m, the discharge ranged between 0.5 and 1 m³ s⁻¹, and the median grain size (D50) was approximately 10–20 mm. The experiments were monitored using a synchronized multi-sensor framework that combined UAV- and ground-based photogrammetry, particle tracking velocimetry, water-level gauges, stand-alone hydroacoustic sensor, riverine seismic dense array and DAS monitoring. Two fiber-optic burial configurations were examined for strain-rate sensing: (1) burial within a 30 cm thick sediment layer, and (2) installation beneath the armored riverbed (riprap) layer, allowing assessment of coupling conditions. Two-gauge lengths (2 m and 10 m) were also tested to evaluate their influence on strain-rate measurements. In our artificial channel experiments, the DAS measurements successfully captured high–spatiotemporal-resolution riverbed erosion and deposition dynamics. Fibers buried beneath the armored riverbed layer exhibited less sensitivity to riverbed morphological changes compared to those embedded within the sediment layer. In addition, the integration of DAS strain-rate, hydrophone, and riverbank seismic array data provided a comprehensive characterization of sediment transport processes across the channel. This study demonstrated that fluvial DAS enables continuous, high–spatiotemporal-resolution monitoring of sediment transport and riverbed evolution.

 

How to cite: Chao, W.-A., Hung, C.-Y., Chen, Y.-S., and Chen, S.-C.: Field-scale artificial channel experiments for fluvial DAS observations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15481, 2026.

EGU26-16077 | ECS | Orals | GM2.1

How farming practices reshape soil hydrodynamics 

Qibin Shi, Marine Denolle, David Montgomery, Abigail Swann, Nicoleta Cristea, Ethan Williams, Nan You, Joe Collins, Ana Prada Barrio, Simon Jeffery, Paula Misiewicz, and Tarje Nissen-Meyer

Farming practices reshape soil hydrodynamics by altering near-surface structure, mechanical stiffness, and water transport pathways, yet their impacts remain difficult to observe at field scale and high temporal resolution. Here we combine distributed acoustic sensing with physics-based hydromechanical modeling to quantify how tillage systems and soil compaction influences minute-scale, meter-scale seismic and hydrological responses in agricultural soils. We show that dynamic capillary effects govern transient soil stiffness and moisture redistribution following rainfall, with disturbed soils exhibiting sharp post-rain seismic velocity reductions associated with near-surface saturation. These responses are followed by pronounced hysteretic velocity recoveries driven by evapotranspiration, revealing strong memory effects in soil–water dynamics. Seismically inverted estimates of soil saturation demonstrate how farming-induced disturbance reshapes water flux partitioning and subsurface storage. Our results provide direct observational evidence that farming practices fundamentally reorganize soil hydrodynamics and establish distributed seismic sensing as a scalable, non-invasive approach for observing  soil processes relevant to land–atmosphere exchange, Earth system modeling, and resilience to hydrological extremes.

How to cite: Shi, Q., Denolle, M., Montgomery, D., Swann, A., Cristea, N., Williams, E., You, N., Collins, J., Prada Barrio, A., Jeffery, S., Misiewicz, P., and Nissen-Meyer, T.: How farming practices reshape soil hydrodynamics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16077, 2026.

EGU26-16328 | Posters on site | GM2.1

Seismic Monitoring of Rockfalls Enhanced by LiDAR and Photogrammetric Data: Towards Automatic Detection and Early Warning. 

Mar Tapia, Marta Guinau, Xabier Blanch, Antonio Abellan, Bixen Telletxea, Jana Martín, and Francesc Meneses

Continuous seismic monitoring has proven effective for detecting rockfalls, yet most studies rely on multiple stations or dense arrays, increasing cost and complexity. This study demonstrates that a single seismic station, located approximately 100 m from the event site, can detect small rockfalls (<0.005 m³), characterize their dynamics, and estimate their volumes.

The approach relies on careful signal processing, combining STA/LTA analysis, envelope calculation, and parameters such as amplitude, duration, and frequency, to reveal distinctive features of rockfall events. This methodology emphasizes the quality of extracted information over the quantity of data, enabling real-time identification of minor precursory events even amidst diverse environmental and anthropogenic noise.

LiDAR and photogrammetry provide high-resolution spatial data to calibrate and validate detections, but their limited temporal resolution prevents continuous monitoring. Controlled block-fall experiments further optimized station placement and confirmed the system’s sensitivity. These results demonstrate the potential of cost-effective, single-station seismic monitoring for automatic rockfall detection and early warning, offering a practical solution for hazardous mountainous regions.

How to cite: Tapia, M., Guinau, M., Blanch, X., Abellan, A., Telletxea, B., Martín, J., and Meneses, F.: Seismic Monitoring of Rockfalls Enhanced by LiDAR and Photogrammetric Data: Towards Automatic Detection and Early Warning., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16328, 2026.

EGU26-16347 | ECS | Posters on site | GM2.1

Using flexural waves recorded by distributed acoustic sensing to infer the ice thickness and water depth of a frozen lake 

Eduardo Valero Cano, Ludovic Moreau, Felix Strobel, and Gregor Hillers

Information about frozen lakes, including ice rigidity, ice thickness, and water depth, is essential for environmental studies and practical applications. Although these properties can be measured in the field, such measurements are labor-intensive and spatially limited, motivating the development of alternative observation methods. Seismic waves provide an effective approach to studying frozen lakes, as their propagation velocity depends on the physical properties of the ice–water system, including the elastic moduli and thickness of the ice, and water column depth. In this study, we investigate the use of wind-driven flexural waves recorded by a distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) system to infer ice thickness and water depth beneath a 1000 m fiber-optic cable installed on Lake Pääjärvi, southern Finland. We identify wind-induced flexural waves in the 0.01-0.5 Hz frequency band, extract their dispersion curves, and invert them using a grid search to estimate effective ice thickness and water depth under four cable intervals. Our estimates indicate effective ice thicknesses ranging from 22 to 34 cm and effective water depths ranging from 0.8 to 31 m. Absolute differences between effective estimates and arithmetic averages of field measurements range from 0.5 to 8.6 cm for ice thickness and 1.2 to 10.3 m for water depth. Our estimates reproduce the observed dispersion curves and agree with field measurements, demonstrating that it is possible to obtain first-order information about ice thickness and water depth in frozen lake environments. However, the robustness of water depth estimates is limited by the wavenumber content of the flexural waves. In our case, the uncertainty of the water depth estimates increases from 0.43 to 12.05 m as water depth increases because low-wavenumber flexural waves, which are most sensitive to the water column, are not resolved by the dispersion curves. Another important observation is that refraction of flexural waves toward shallower water must be considered when converting apparent velocities measured along the cable to true velocities. If this effect is neglected, dispersion curves and the estimated parameters can be biased.

How to cite: Valero Cano, E., Moreau, L., Strobel, F., and Hillers, G.: Using flexural waves recorded by distributed acoustic sensing to infer the ice thickness and water depth of a frozen lake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16347, 2026.

EGU26-17225 | ECS | Orals | GM2.1

A seismic shift for soil health monitoring: scalable, non-invasive seismology at the decimetre scale. 

Matteo Bagagli, Kevin Davidson, Maria Tsekhmistrenko, Joe Collins, Morine Wangechi, Peter Mosongo, Kuangdai Leng, Jiayao Meng, Yder Masson, Simon Jeffery, and Tarje Nissen-Meyer

Soil is a complex ecosystem at the heart of survival for all life on land. Harbouring more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation combined, it is home to more than 60% of Earth's species and delivers 99% of calories for the human food system. Despite growing demands, more than 70% of global arable land is classified as degraded. Monitoring soils and thereby improving soil health at scale is difficult due to their multiscale heterogeneity, limited accessibility of remote sensing techniques, and destructive, labour-intensive nature of soil coring, on the other hand. Geophysical techniques offer a tangible alternative. To date, active seismics have scarcely been considered for the living topsoil, a layer mere 10-50 cm below our feet.

We show how seismology with ultrahigh frequency wavefields above 500 Hz generated by hammer strikes and recorded by cheap, bespoke geophones should allow us to infer on a variety of crucial soil health parameters, such as bulk density, soil moisture, topsoil depth, soil carbon, and more, which collectively give rise to determining soil function and health. We present consistently high data quality up to 1500 Hz collected across three continents in more than 10 ecosystems and crop types, showcase a pathway for automated data processing and inference, introduce novel low-cost MEMS sensors, and highlight emerging AI engines.

Our non-profit organisation, Earth Rover Program, is tasked with implementing the vision towards a global soil health assessment of unprecedented resolution and coverage. This, in turn, can eventually equip farmers with spatially explicit, local knowledge of their soils’ state and suggest remedial measures based on this novel data, with the potential to reduce environmental pressures and agricultural costs while increasing long-term yields.

How to cite: Bagagli, M., Davidson, K., Tsekhmistrenko, M., Collins, J., Wangechi, M., Mosongo, P., Leng, K., Meng, J., Masson, Y., Jeffery, S., and Nissen-Meyer, T.: A seismic shift for soil health monitoring: scalable, non-invasive seismology at the decimetre scale., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17225, 2026.

EGU26-17386 | ECS | Orals | GM2.1

Estimation of Frost-Induced Stress Using Time-Lapse Ultrasonic Testing and their Effect on the Dynamics of an Alpine Rock Pillar 

Romain Rousseau, Juliane Starke, Pierre Bottelin, Ludovic Moreau, Laurent Baillet, and Eric Larose

Rock fracturing plays a key role in the formation of mountain landscapes and natural hazards. Freezing is one of the main triggers of erosion and fracturing in the Alps. However, questions remain about the impact of freezing on the resonance frequency of rock pillars and the quantification of mechanical stress generated by ice in natural cliffs. 

To better understand the effect of frost at the centimeter and meter scale, long-term recordings were made using repeatable ultrasonic signals to measure both sound velocity and waveform changes. These observations are combined with the measurement of the pillar's fundamental resonance frequency. The investigated Tête Noire rock pillar consists of micaschist and is instably hanging above the city of Trient in the western Swiss Alps. 

The results show that during freezing, the fundamental resonance frequency increases by 50 %, the P-wave velocity increases by 17 %, and for later arrivals (coda wave) velocity increases by 4 %. After the freezing period, a irreversible drop in P-wave and coda wave velocities is visible, but not in the fundamental resonance frequency which is coming back to its initial value. This decrease in velocity is accompanied by a decorrelation of the ultrasonic waveforms. Reproducing the observed P wave velocity changes on 0.5m thick layer on a finite element COMSOL simulations of the pillar, we determine that the changes in velocity in the rock do not explain the fundamental resonance frequency changes. We therefore propose that the increase in fundamental resonance frequency results from ice filling the rear crack, and we estimate an order of magnitude of about 1.7 m for the ice height, compared with the initial crack size of 10 m. 

To estimate the freezing stress, from the measured velocity changes, we determined the acousto-elastic constant of the Tête Noire micaschist on a representative laboratory sample using uniaxial compression experiments. Those results reveal that the generated freezing induced stress are in the subcritical regime with an order of magnitude of a few tens MPa and are, hence able to damage slightly the rock, irreversibly. The drop in correlation coefficient and in the waves velocity support this conclusion. 

This work was funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under grant No. 101142154 - Crack The Rock project

How to cite: Rousseau, R., Starke, J., Bottelin, P., Moreau, L., Baillet, L., and Larose, E.: Estimation of Frost-Induced Stress Using Time-Lapse Ultrasonic Testing and their Effect on the Dynamics of an Alpine Rock Pillar, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17386, 2026.

EGU26-17578 | ECS | Posters on site | GM2.1

Seismic events classification using language syntax and biomimesis 

Stefania Ursica and Niels Hovius

The planet’s surface is a restless orator: its fractures, failures and flows in response to climatic, tectonic and anthropogenic forcing inscribe narratives in seismic waveforms. Our limited success in decoding these narratives by classification and attribution of complex, incognito signals, threatens to leave Environmental Seismology data-rich but epistemologically impoverished. We propose that geomorphic signals can be formalized as language and tracked as evolving lineages. Hence, we develop a self-organizing, classification method with comprehension, resulting in an explainable, evolving phylogenetic tree. Unlike supervised classification methods that require exhaustive labels or clustering algorithms that conflate statistical similarity with physical kinship, our classification tool learns without labels, generalizes without forgetting physics, and explains without obfuscation.

We present a “glass-box” classifier, unsupervised in perception but supervised in its definition, that treats seismic data not as flat feature vectors but as structured, generative text, translating ground motion into a lexicon of geomorphic processes. Our system discovers its own alphabet, syntax, and semantics: autonomously constructing a taxonomic tree for seismic events while remaining interpretable. To do so, we break down the continuous seismic signal into discrete "phonemes." Multi-scale temporal descriptors, impulsive micro-textures (1.25 s), meso-scale envelope dynamics (5 s) and slow background trends (20 s), compose a multi-metric feature suite. These windows are fused into a tensor encoding nonlinear force interactions, then discretized through RVQ into context-aware symbols. Thus, we replace the geometric rigidity of static clustering with a dynamic evolutionary state space where signal classes behave as adapted species (rockfalls, landslides, debris flows, mine collapses, volcanic tremors, GLOFs, tectonic and glacial earthquakes, nuclear explosions, anthropogenic noise), governed by the Free Energy Principle. Similarity of process signals is tripartite: syntactic (grammar divergence), information-theoretic (surprisal), and algorithmic (NCD). This distinguishes events that look alike but have differing mechanisms: a debris flow and lahar may share "rumble" words, yet obey distinct physical grammars.

Modeled on Darwinian phylodynamics, the spectral species defined by their grammatical structure (causality), "metabolize" incoming data by minimizing thermodynamic surprise. The populations undergo sympatric speciation, hybridization, commensalism, and extinction, disentangling the "phylogenetic distance" (similarity) between superficially similar signals, and ultimately resulting in optimized classification. The algorithmic biomimicry of our approach outperforms static taxonomies that fail in non-stationary Earth systems without retraining.

Applied to a global, geologically heterogeneous inventory of >6000 curated records, preliminary results show phonemes reliability reaches 94–98% across stations and a >50% drop in articulation-structure complexity from noise to geomorphic events. The inferred phylogeny is physically meaningful, decoupling categories in distinct topological manifolds, allowing the classifier to reject false positives without supervision. Uncertainty is metabolized: high-aleatoric/low-epistemic signals (inherent noise) separate from low-aleatoric/high-epistemic anomalies (black swans: candidate new species). Free Energy scores, combine complexity and inaccuracy, outperform baselines in robustness to gaps, clipping, and dropout by over 20%.

The model is self-interpreting; rather than an opaque class label, it outputs a semantic sentence, exposing the decision path to a physically meaningful event classification, whilst also encapsulating information unique to specific events. Legible, self-improving classification turns detection into naming, and identity into process understanding.

How to cite: Ursica, S. and Hovius, N.: Seismic events classification using language syntax and biomimesis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17578, 2026.

EGU26-17665 * | Orals | GM2.1 | Highlight

Seismic observations and modelling of the August 2025 Tracy Arm, Alaska landslide, megatsunami, precursory seismicity, and seiche 

Stephen Hicks, Dan Shugar, Mira Berdahl, Jacqueline Caplan-Auerbach, Göran Ekström, Aram Fathian, Marten Geertsema, Bretwood Higman, Ezgi Karasozen, Patrick Lynett, Thomas Monahan, Gerard Roe, Kristian Svennevig, Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, and Michael West

On 10 August 2025, a large landslide (>64×10⁶ m³) collapsed more than 1,000 m onto South Sawyer Glacier and into Tracy Arm fjord in Southeast Alaska. The resulting tsunami ran up the opposing fjord wall to a height of 480 m, the second-highest tsunami ever recorded.

The landslide was preceded by more than 24 hours of repeated microseismicity (up to M~2), with event rates increasing until ~1 hour before failure, signalling a transition to continuous slip of the overall rock mass.

The landslide generated globally observed body and long-period seismic waves equivalent to an Mw 5.4 earthquake, making it one of the largest-magnitude landslides in decades. From regional and global seismic data, we infer a total mass of ~370 million metric tons, exceeding estimates from remote sensing and DEM analysis. This discrepancy suggests that water displacement during the initial tsunami contributed to the long-period global seismic signal.

Following the landslide signal, we observe monochromatic seismic waves worldwide with dominant periods of 50, 52, 66, and 86 s. The 66 s mode is strongest and persists for >36 hours at regional stations. Surface-wave radiation patterns, numerical tsunami modelling, and SWOT satellite water-height observations support the genesis of a fjord-transverse landslide-induced seiche (LIS) in the central fjord. However, seismic radiation is more complex than that of the 2023 Dickson Fjord, Greenland LIS event, likely reflecting differences in the landslide location and its direction, fjord geometry, and interaction of multiple seiche modes.

Despite heavy summer vessel traffic in Tracy Arm, there were no fatalities, making this a near miss. Seismic observations, combined with remote sensing, provide a critical pathway for forecasting and early warning of cascading landslide–tsunami events and for understanding ice–land–water interactions in polar environments.

How to cite: Hicks, S., Shugar, D., Berdahl, M., Caplan-Auerbach, J., Ekström, G., Fathian, A., Geertsema, M., Higman, B., Karasozen, E., Lynett, P., Monahan, T., Roe, G., Svennevig, K., Van Wyk de Vries, M., and West, M.: Seismic observations and modelling of the August 2025 Tracy Arm, Alaska landslide, megatsunami, precursory seismicity, and seiche, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17665, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17665, 2026.

EGU26-18176 | ECS | Posters on site | GM2.1

Low frequency icequakes as the signature of transient subglacial water flow underneath the Greenland Ice Sheet 

Hugo Rousseau, Jules Le Bot, Florent Gimbert, Reza Esfahani, Michel Campillo, Samuel H. Doyle, Stephen Livingstone, Andrew Sole, Alexandre Michel, Nicolas Paris, and Tifenn Le Bris

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. However, predicting its future contribution remains complicated due to large uncertainties in modeling seasonal velocity variations. One of the key challenges is to better constrain the role of isolated subglacial water cavities. Over the melting season, water pressure within these cavities fluctuates, causing the glacier base to be coupled or decoupled from the bedrock. This process modulates basal friction, thereby influencing the velocity of the glacier.
Yet, the mechanisms by which these cavities depressurize by connecting to efficient drainage systems remain poorly understood, particularly for rapid drainage events where viscous creep cannot play a role (Mejia et al., 2021).
To investigate this phenomenon and identify key hydrological parameters, a dense seismic array (Gimbert et al., 2021; Nanni et al., 2021) and a GNSS station was deployed over purported subglacial lakes at Isunguata Sermia, West Greenland. In early September, the GNSS station highlighted a sharp decrease in ice surface elevation, accompanied by intense seismicity at the ice-bed interface. We used unsupervised machine learning to explore recorded seismic signals and identified Low-Frequency Icequakes (LFI), which do not follow classical rupture scaling laws. Additionally, many of these events were followed by a tremor with very low frequencies (~2 Hz). These tremors migrated spatially over time, following a diffusion pattern correlated with the ice surface subsidence, suggesting water migration at the ice-bed interface and thus, a lake drainage. However, the estimated diffusion coefficient is two orders of magnitude higher than predicted by Darcy's flow law. This suggests a hydrofracturing mechanism, facilitating rapid connections between multiple isolated cavities rather than a simple, localized lake drainage process.
Unlike previous interpretations of LFIs observed on glaciers (Thelen et al., 2013; Helmstetter, 2022), our findings suggest that these events do not represent stick-slip mechanisms at the glacier base but are instead, generated by fluid pressure diffusion due to the pressure difference between two isolated cavities. To further support this idea, we propose a theoretical forward model for seismic noise generation driven by pressure diffusion. The model is based on the geometric and hydrological characteristics of the cavities, including cavity width, inter-cavity spacing, the diffusion coefficient and the water volume. Accurate identification of these parameters, based on observations allows us to reproduce the key features of the observed power spectrum.

How to cite: Rousseau, H., Le Bot, J., Gimbert, F., Esfahani, R., Campillo, M., Doyle, S. H., Livingstone, S., Sole, A., Michel, A., Paris, N., and Le Bris, T.: Low frequency icequakes as the signature of transient subglacial water flow underneath the Greenland Ice Sheet, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18176, 2026.

EGU26-18499 | ECS | Posters on site | GM2.1

Evaluating Frequency Band and Stretching Time Window Effects on Noise-Based dv/v for Subsurface Hydrological Monitoring 

Laura Rossana Fracica Gonzalez, Christoff Andermann, Benoit Abadie, John Armitage, Elisabeth Dietze, Niels Hovius, Luc Illien, Birgitta Putzenlechner, and Michael Dietze

Environmental seismology increasingly employs relative changes in seismic velocity (dv/v) with time, derived from continuous seismometer recordings, to infer temporal variations in ground properties such as soil moisture and groundwater dynamics. However, despite that widespread use, there is no consensus on optimal frequency bands and stretching time windows used to extract reliable dv/v time series. Previous studies addressing deep, and shallow groundwater dynamics each applied distinct combinations of frequency bands and stretching time windows, raising the key question: how comparable are dv/v results derived from different parameter choices, and how consistently do they represent subsurface hydrological variability?

This work presents an intercomparison of commonly used noise-based dv/v combinations of frequency bands and stretching time windows across two hydrological domains: (1) groundwater at depth, and (2) shallow critical zone hydrology. For each domain, we review and implement published combinations of the previous parameters and assess their influence on the resulting dv/v time series.

To evaluate their methodological impact, we compare the different dv/v estimates amongst themselves and against independent environmental control datasets, including groundwater levels, soil moisture time series, and additional hydroclimatic observations. For both domains, we complement literature case studies with our own two field datasets from Germany, one in the Eifel and one in the Harz region. In the Eifel region, a network of ten seismic stations has been deployed across two sub-catchments in the upper Ahr Valley, composed of intensively folded and fractured Devonian mudstone and carbonate rocks. Continuous seismic records are paired soil moisture sensors at depths down to 40 cm and groundwater well measurements from nearby monitoring sites. In the Harz Mountains, we use additional seismic, top soil moisture, and hydrological observations to extend the comparison to a geologically and hydroclimatically distinct setting, with variable soil cover on weathered granite boulders creating abundant water flow in the shallow subsurface.

We hypothesize that different combinations of frequency bands and stretching time windows will produce systematically distinct dv/v patterns, even when applied to the same dataset, and that their sensitivity will vary across deep groundwater systems and shallow surface hydrology. By identifying parameter combinations that enhance or mask relations with the independently sensed environmental variables, this study aims to better understand methodological controls between these parameters and contribute towards a more consistent and comparable practice for environmental applications.

How to cite: Fracica Gonzalez, L. R., Andermann, C., Abadie, B., Armitage, J., Dietze, E., Hovius, N., Illien, L., Putzenlechner, B., and Dietze, M.: Evaluating Frequency Band and Stretching Time Window Effects on Noise-Based dv/v for Subsurface Hydrological Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18499, 2026.

EGU26-18667 | ECS | Posters on site | GM2.1

Resolving environmental processes by imaging and monitoring lake ice properties of the boreal Lake Pääjärvi, southern Finland 

Felix Strobel, Gregor Hillers, Tom Jilbert, John Loehr, Christian Stranne, Tahvo Oksanen, Jonathan Vänskä, Roméo Courbis, Annukka Rintamäki, Amir Sadeghi-Bagherabadi, Lasse Weißgräber, Yinshuai Ding, Marc de Langenhagen, Eduardo Valero Cano, Aurélien Mordret, Cédric Schmelzbach, Ludovic Moreau, Olivier Coutant, and Céline Hadziioannou and the DYNALake deployment team

The composition, structure, and dynamics of a transient ice sheet that forms and disintegrates on a boreal lake is influenced by meteorological and environmental processes. This includes trapping of upwelling methane from the lake sediments, which is in turn affected by eutrophication in the catchment area. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, yet documented sources and sinks to the atmospheric budget are highly unbalanced. Here we explore a novel approach for quantifying methane ebullition from a boreal lake that combines seismic methods together with interdisciplinary observation methods.

 

The DYNALake project centerpiece is an array of ~210 seismic geophones arranged in an aperiodic tiling configuration that we deployed in February 2025 on the ~20 cm thick ice of Lake Pääjärvi some 100 km north of Helsinki. The 10-km scale lake array is complemented by a sparser network of 31 land-based sensors installed around the lake between fall 2024 and spring 2025, three dense circular arrays enabling local beamforming and estimating array derived rotation, a DAS system with a 1 km-long fibre optic cable, an underwater echosounder to monitor potential methane ebullition, a rotational seismometer, a microphone to record seismo-acoustic waves, a Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) survey, water chemistry measurements, manual ice thickness sampling and ice coring, and meteorological data. The project popularizes the subarctic wintertime fieldwork and the science by making a professional documentary for science communication, outreach, and education.

 

We present initial results on spatial and temporal variations in lake-ice thickness and on the quality and characteristics of the recorded seismic data. The observations include distinct ice-guided wavefield signatures, including QS₀ (quasi-symmetric) and SH₀ (horizontally polarized shear) modes used to estimate elastic parameters such as Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio, as well as the dispersive QS (quasi-Scholte) mode that is primarily sensitive to ice thickness at higher frequencies. We compare signals from natural sources and hammer shots across the different sensor types. We show examples of noise correlation wavefields, beamforming results, and seismo-acoustic records that can be used to characterize seismic activity patterns and resolve variable ice properties. Seismic activity in the 0.03–0.2 Hz band increases during high-wind episodes, while higher-frequency signals (0.1–1000 Hz) correlate with rapid air-temperature cooling events. The GPR profile images the spatial ice variability across the lake that is compatible with the in situ measurements. The geochemical water sample analysis suggests Lake Pääjärvi is a source of methane.

 

We discuss the potential of the data quality and the sensor configuration for signal detection and for icequake and passive tomography lake ice images to resolve spatially variable air and gas bubble properties that are controlled by environmental processes. This synthesis demonstrates that the application of environmental seismology concepts can form a bridge between bottom-up ebullition monitoring and remote-sensing approaches.

How to cite: Strobel, F., Hillers, G., Jilbert, T., Loehr, J., Stranne, C., Oksanen, T., Vänskä, J., Courbis, R., Rintamäki, A., Sadeghi-Bagherabadi, A., Weißgräber, L., Ding, Y., de Langenhagen, M., Valero Cano, E., Mordret, A., Schmelzbach, C., Moreau, L., Coutant, O., and Hadziioannou, C. and the DYNALake deployment team: Resolving environmental processes by imaging and monitoring lake ice properties of the boreal Lake Pääjärvi, southern Finland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18667, 2026.

EGU26-18693 | ECS | Posters on site | GM2.1

Fibre-Optic Monitoring of An Alpine Slope Instability Using Seismic Events: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis 

Tjeerd Kiers, Cédric Schmelzbach, Julius Grimm, Florian Amann, Hansruedi Maurer, Pascal Edme, Yves Bonanomi, and Johan Robertsson

Slope instabilities pose an increasing threat to populations and infrastructure across various regions worldwide. Therefore, a fundamental understanding of processes governing slope failure is critical for improving hazard mitigation. While remote-sensing and synthetic aperture radar methods effectively capture surface displacement, they provide limited information on subsurface dynamics. Seismic monitoring and imaging techniques can provide valuable complementary information on the internal structure, material properties, and time-dependent processes associated with unstable slopes.

We present a large-scale application of long-term Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) measurements to investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of microseismicity at Cuolm da Vi (Central Switzerland), one of the largest active slope instabilities in the Alps. We deployed a 6.5 km long fibre-optic array to record continuous DAS data over a five-month period in spring 2023. Using a coherence-based detection method that exploits the dense spatial sampling of DAS, we identified 1,277 local seismic events. Event locations were obtained by adapting a matched field processing (MFP) approach to DAS observations, resulting in a comprehensive microseismic catalogue. The localisation workflow was validated through a controlled-source experiment and by comparison with a traveltime inversion of manually picked arrivals for selected events.

The resulting event distribution shows a pronounced spatial correspondence with known tectonic structures at Cuolm da Vi, particularly steeply dipping fracture systems, suggesting that much of the observed seismicity is linked to internal deformation processes related to a toppling movement. Clusters of elevated event density coincide with regions of reduced seismic velocities or strong velocity contrasts inferred from an independently derived three-dimensional velocity model. During the five-month observation time, the seismicity exhibits three distinct phases of elevated activity, with the first two closely following periods of intense precipitation and snowmelt. In addition, distinct spatial migration patterns of seismic activity emerge across different timescales.

The findings of our study demonstrate that DAS enables long-term monitoring of microseismic activity over spatially extensive and challenging Alpine terrain. The results provide new constraints on the internal structure and evolving dynamics of the Cuolm da Vi instability and additionally, highlight the potential of DAS-based seismic monitoring to improve hazard assessment and advance our understanding of deep-seated slope failure processes.

How to cite: Kiers, T., Schmelzbach, C., Grimm, J., Amann, F., Maurer, H., Edme, P., Bonanomi, Y., and Robertsson, J.: Fibre-Optic Monitoring of An Alpine Slope Instability Using Seismic Events: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18693, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18693, 2026.

EGU26-21031 | ECS | Posters on site | GM2.1

Landslide Monitoring in Joshimath through Passive Seismology and SAR Interferometry 

Shubham Mishra and Satish Maurya

Landslides remain one of the most pervasive natural hazards in the Himalayan region, exacerbated by intense rainfall, steep topography, and anthropogenic activity. Accurate detection, monitoring, and hazard zoning of these slope failures are essential for mitigating their impact on communities and infrastructure. This research integrates Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) with Seismic Ambient Noise Interferometry (SANI) monitoring to provide a comprehensive assessment of landslide-prone regions. Using time-series InSAR techniques such as Persistent Scatterer (PS-InSAR) and Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) interferometry, implemented through open-source tools like OpenSAR Lab, MintPy, LiCSBAS, and StaMPS, we processed multi-temporal SAR datasets from January 2020 to December 2024 to retrieve surface deformation rates. This analysis enabled the identification of both active and slowly deforming landslides across the study area. 

The seismic velocity change was computed to monitor subsurface behavior from 17th June 2024 to 17th July 2024 using three seismic stations, viz AULI, CHAD, and KVSJ, located in Joshimath, Chamoli. The dv/v calculate for KVSJ shows a prominent velocity drop on July 5th, 2024. The landslides occurred on the 9th and 10th of July 2024. The drop in velocity can be attributed to increased moisture due to precipitation, which results in rigidity loss. The observed velocity drop may be interpreted as a precursor signal to landslide occurrence. However, the dv/v plots for the AULI and CHAD do not show any prominent drop in the velocity. The one possible reason could be the aspect of the downslope area that orients to a relatively stable valley bottom. As the region hosts metasedimentary rock, the subsurface response to the infiltration of rainwater could also have contributed to the different behavior of these two stations, and this is to be further investigated to identify the plausible causes.

The integrated methodology presented in this work demonstrates that the synergy between InSAR and passive seismology not only improves landslide detection and monitoring capabilities but also contributes to more informed early warning systems and risk reduction strategies. This study contributes to the broader goal of disaster-resilient infrastructure planning in mountainous terrains.

How to cite: Mishra, S. and Maurya, S.: Landslide Monitoring in Joshimath through Passive Seismology and SAR Interferometry, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21031, 2026.

EGU26-21131 | ECS | Posters on site | GM2.1

Can we track the up-glacier migration of a subglacial channelized drainage system by means of environmental seismology? 

Daniel Binder, Stefan Mertl, Signe Hillerup Larsen, and Eva P.S. Eibl

During the melt season, subglacial drainage systems typically evolve from a high-pressure, distributed system to a low-pressure, channelized network that progressively extends up-glacier from the terminus in response to meltwater availability. Resolving the spatial and temporal evolution of this transition remains challenging, particularly with small seismological networks, or even single stations.In spring 2023, we deployed three seismological stations along the central flow line of the southeast outlet glacier of the A. P. Olsen Ice Cap, northeast Greenland. The stations spanned the full vertical extent of the ablation zone and continuously recorded throughout the 2023 melt season.We apply and compare different seismological analysis techniques with the potential to detect changes in subglacial hydrological conditions. The seismic observations are interpreted in conjunction with meteorological data from two automatic weather stations located in the lower and upper ablation zone. We assess the capability of environmental seismological monitoring with single stations to track drainage system development in space and time.

How to cite: Binder, D., Mertl, S., Larsen, S. H., and Eibl, E. P. S.: Can we track the up-glacier migration of a subglacial channelized drainage system by means of environmental seismology?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21131, 2026.

EGU26-22884 | ECS | Orals | GM2.1

An earthquake-triggered rock avalanche on Jan Mayen Island conditioned by Arctic warming 

Guilherme W. S. de Melo, Reginald Hermanns, Jacob M. Bendle, Ingo Grevemeyer, Simone Cesca, Aderson F. do Nascimento, Lars Ottemöller, Gökhan Aslan, Quentin Brissaud, Volker Oye, and Heidrun Kopp

Large earthquakes can trigger cascading environmental impacts in continent (e.g. 1964 Mw 9.2 Alaska and 2015 Mw 7.9 Nepal earthquakes), yet such processes remain poorly documented in oceanic and polar settings. Here, we present a multidisciplinary investigation of the 2025 Mw 6.5 oceanic strike-slip earthquake that occurred on 10 March 2025 along the Jan Mayen oceanic transform fault, Arctic Ocean, and its surface and cryospheric impacts on local Jan Mayen Island. Using relocated local seismicity, regional waveform modelling, GNSS time series, seismic noise interferometry, infrasound observations, high-resolution optical satellite imagery, and long-term air-temperature records, we reconstruct the sequence of events linking the earthquake rupture to a major rock-slope failure. The earthquake, which ruptured for ~40 km long in transform faulting, triggered a rock avalanche from a steep, glacier-adjacent volcanic slope, depositing 0.8-1.2x106 m3 of debris material over ~0.9 km2 of the Kjerulf Glacier and reaching the coastline. Infrasound signals constrain the timing of slope failure to within minutes of the mainshock, supporting a co-seismic trigger. Satellite imagery further reveals contemporaneous calving at the Weyprecht Glacier. We observed from pre-2025 satellite imagery that multiple smaller rock-slope failures between 2019 and 2024, indicating progressive slope weakening prior to the earthquake. Also, long-term air-temperature records show a marked warming trend over recent decades, including the near absence of extreme cold winters since the late 1990s and an increasing frequency of anomalously warm summer days, consistent with Arctic amplification. We interpret the 2025 rock failure at Kjerulf Glacier as an earthquake-triggered collapse of a slope preconditioned by permafrost degradation associated with this warming trend. Our results demonstrate that oceanic strike-slip earthquakes can generate significant onshore geohazards in polar environments and highlight the importance of integrated geophysical and remote-sensing approaches for monitoring earthquake-climate-cryosphere interactions in the Arctic.

How to cite: de Melo, G. W. S., Hermanns, R., Bendle, J. M., Grevemeyer, I., Cesca, S., do Nascimento, A. F., Ottemöller, L., Aslan, G., Brissaud, Q., Oye, V., and Kopp, H.: An earthquake-triggered rock avalanche on Jan Mayen Island conditioned by Arctic warming, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22884, 2026.

EGU26-388 | ECS | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Shannon Entropy as an eruptive precursor: a practical study on Hawai‘i Island from 2017 to 2025 

Ismael Santos Campos, Luca D'Auria, Aarón Álvarez-Hernández, Pablo Rey-Devesa, Jesús M. Ibáñez, Janire Prudencio, Manuel Titos, and Carmen Benítez

The search for reliable eruptive precursors is a central challenge in volcano monitoring, essential for optimizing volcanic early-warning systems. Recent studies have shown that the Shannon entropy of seismic signals is a promising precursor, capable of forecasting imminent eruptions with high reliability. In addition, cross entropy computed between pairs of seismic stations can help pinpoint the location of an impending eruptive vent.

In this study, we analyse the behaviour of these two entropy measures for the Island of Hawai‘i from 2017 to 2025. We examine eruptions from both Mauna Loa and Kīlauea, yielding forecast lead times of 30 minutes to 24 hours. Differences in these lead times may reflect the complexity of the volcano-structural setting of the island and its underlying volcanic plumbing systems. Highly fractured areas may favour rapid magma ascent, leading to a short eruption warning. Heat maps of cross-entropy across all station pairs in the network enabled precise forecasting of the locations of forthcoming eruptive sources, except when the new vent formed outside the seismic network.

How to cite: Santos Campos, I., D'Auria, L., Álvarez-Hernández, A., Rey-Devesa, P., Ibáñez, J. M., Prudencio, J., Titos, M., and Benítez, C.: Shannon Entropy as an eruptive precursor: a practical study on Hawai‘i Island from 2017 to 2025, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-388, 2026.

EGU26-1110 | ECS | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

High-Resolution Microseismicity Provides Insights into Ring-Fault Geometry at the Re-inflating Bárðarbunga Caldera, Iceland 

Tom Winder, Elías Rafn Heimisson, Nick Rawlinson, Bryndís Brandsdóttir, Kristín Jónsdóttir, and Robert S. White

In 2014-15, the subglacial Bárðarbunga caldera collapsed, subsiding 65 metres as magma flowed out from beneath it to feed a fissure eruption at Holuhraun. Subsequently, the caldera has been re-inflating, indicating recharge of the crustal magma reservoir. Sustained seismicity along the caldera ring faults – but with reversed focal mechanism polarity compared to the eruption period – further supports its ongoing resurgence. In summer 2021, 2024 and 2025 we installed temporary broadband seismic arrays on the ice cap above Bárðarbunga, to provide improved constraints on earthquake hypocentres and focal mechanisms.

We use QuakeMigrate to produce catalogues of microseismicity, with 8,500 and 19,500 events located in the campaigns in 2021 and 2024, respectively. The magnitude of completeness, MC is ~ -1. Relative relocation reveals a sharply defined ring fault, consistent in geometry with geodetic constraints obtained during the 2014-15 collapse, thus providing strong evidence that the same structure is being reactivated as the caldera re-inflates. Tightly constrained focal mechanisms show excellent agreement with the local ring-fault geometry defined by the relocated microseismicity, and steep dip-slip faulting corresponding to uplift of the caldera floor. Low frequency earthquakes observed between 15 - 25 km depth in the normally ductile part of the crust below Bárðarbunga, and at around 6 km depth below the caldera, signify activity in the deeper plumbing system of the volcano, which may indicate magma ascent pathways. These events contribute to excellent ray coverage for tomography, which we will use to image the shallow melt reservoir and its geometry relative to the ring-fault.

How to cite: Winder, T., Heimisson, E. R., Rawlinson, N., Brandsdóttir, B., Jónsdóttir, K., and White, R. S.: High-Resolution Microseismicity Provides Insights into Ring-Fault Geometry at the Re-inflating Bárðarbunga Caldera, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1110, 2026.

EGU26-2705 | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Temporal Variations in Earthquake Triggering Mechanisms in the Tatun Volcano Group 

Hsin-Chieh Pu, Cheng-Horng Lin, Ya-Chuan Lai, and Min-Hung Shih

The Tatun Volcano Group (TVG), adjacent to the densely populated Taipei metropolitan region in northern Taiwan, is an active volcanic system where a large number of earthquakes have been observed. Although the previous studies have reported that volcanic fluids exist beneath the surface, how these fluids change over time and influence local earthquakes has remained unclear. In this study, we examined more than 12,000 earthquakes recorded between 2014 and 2021 to explore how the behavior of earthquakes and the physical properties of the seismogenic zone vary with time. By analyzing patterns in frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes and seismic wave velocities within the seismogenic zone, we found that the triggering mechanisms for earthquakes in the TVG shift over time, possibly due to the varying influence of volcanic gases, hydrothermal waters, and stress. This study deciphers the dynamic nature of the TVG and improves our understanding of the volcanic risk near the Taipei metropolis.

How to cite: Pu, H.-C., Lin, C.-H., Lai, Y.-C., and Shih, M.-H.: Temporal Variations in Earthquake Triggering Mechanisms in the Tatun Volcano Group, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2705, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2705, 2026.

EGU26-5530 | ECS | Orals | GMPV11.3

Multiple Scattering of Seismic Waves in a Heterogeneous Magmatic System and Spectral Characteristics of Long Period Volcanic Earthquakes 

Mirko Bracale, Michel Campillo, Nikolai M. Shapiro, Romain Brossier, and Oleg Melnik

The spectral stability commonly observed in volcanic tremor signals is usually interpreted as reflecting a stable source mechanism. In this study, we investigate the role of seismic wave propagation within a magmatic plumbing system derived from thermoelastic simulations, using 2D elastic numerical simulations based on the Spectral Element Method. The modeled medium is grounded in the most recent understanding of the thermo-mechanical effects of magma injections into crustal rocks. Our wave propagation simulations demonstrate that such structures generate strong seismic wave scattering. We identify two primary mechanisms responsible for spectral stability and for generating a characteristic spectral signature: the interference of multiply scattered waves along the source-receiver paths, and the trapping of waves within the volcanic structure. In the latter case, we show that wave trapping can lead to local resonance and that its spectral signature appears clearly in the coda of volcanic signals. The observed link between frequency content and the elastic and scattering properties of the source region implies that structural changes may be characterized through the study of the spectral characteristics of volcanic recordings and their variations. Overall, our findings emphasize the fundamental importance of multiple seismic wave scattering in volcanic environments.

How to cite: Bracale, M., Campillo, M., Shapiro, N. M., Brossier, R., and Melnik, O.: Multiple Scattering of Seismic Waves in a Heterogeneous Magmatic System and Spectral Characteristics of Long Period Volcanic Earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5530, 2026.

EGU26-7083 | ECS | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Unsupervised Machine Learning for Analyzing Continuous Seismic Recordings: Insights from Piton de la Fournaise Volcano 

Marie A. Gärtner, Michel Campillo, and Nikolai Shapiro

Seismograms recorded near active volcanoes contain numerous volcanic earthquakes and tremors that capture signatures of diverse volcanic processes and offer insights into the state of the volcano’s plumbing system and its underlying physical mechanisms. However, the strong variability of the seismo-volcanic signals makes their interpretation in terms of associated physical processes difficult. To address this, we employ unsupervised machine learning techniques, specifically, the scattering transform and Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP), to extract statistically significant features from continuous seismograms and to identify meaningful patterns related to volcanic activity. This approach eliminates the need for discrete event catalogs, enabling a comprehensive analysis of seismic manifestations of the volcanic activity.

Our study focuses on Piton de la Fournaise (PdF), a highly active basaltic volcano on La Réunion island, France, which erupted 25 times between 2014 and 2024. As one of the world’s best-monitored volcanoes, PdF represents an ideal natural laboratory for testing and refining our methodology. We analyze three-component seismograms from multiple stations and validate our findings using complementary datasets, including eruption, earthquake, and tremor catalogs.

The two-dimensional UMAP representation of the analyzed seismic data reveals distinct patterns that correlate with volcanic activity. The resulting seismogram atlas shows isolated clusters of points forming continuous features, which correspond to co-eruptive tremors. During non-eruptive periods, the analyzed time windows accumulate in a dense point cloud. Within this cloud, a predominantly random distribution of points is evident. However, some points form nearly linear, continuous pathways within the cloud, correlating with periods of magmatic intrusions. Adjacent to the dense point cloud, pre-eruptive seismic swarms are grouped in a specific region of the UMAP space, suggesting a common underlying mechanism.

How to cite: Gärtner, M. A., Campillo, M., and Shapiro, N.: Unsupervised Machine Learning for Analyzing Continuous Seismic Recordings: Insights from Piton de la Fournaise Volcano, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7083, 2026.

EGU26-7373 | ECS | Orals | GMPV11.3

Multi-volcano observations of coupled tremor spectra and subsurface velocity changes 

Alexander Yates, Corentin Caudron, Silvana Hidalgo, Jean Battaglia, Luciano Zuccarello, Silvio De Angelis, Henriette Bakkar Hindeleh, and Waldo Taylor-Castillo

Episodes of volcanic tremor provide valuable insights into subsurface processes at active volcanoes, yet the physical origin of temporal variations in tremor spectra remains debated. Previous work at Mt. Etna (Italy) demonstrated a strong correlation between relative frequency changes (df/f) during broadband volcanic tremor and seismic velocity changes (dv/v) derived from passive seismic interferometry. Such correspondence suggests that tremor spectra are responding to changes in medium properties rather than variations in the tremor source.

Here, we extend this observation beyond Etna to include Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador) and Rincón de la Vieja volcano (Costa Rica). At both volcanoes, we observe consistent correlations between df/f extracted from broadband tremor and dv/v. At Tungurahua, these changes are linked to earthquake-induced damage and meteorological processes, once again suggesting that their modulation reflects changes in the phase velocity within near-surface layers.

The persistent relationship between dv/v and df/f at both Tungurahua and Rincón de la Vieja not only supports previous interpretations at Etna, but shows that such a relationship is present across varied volcanic systems. This strengthens the case for using df/f during broadband tremor as a proxy for tracking subsurface changes within volcanic systems, particularly where using traditional methods may be challenging. Furthermore, our results highlight the need to clarify the respective roles of source, path, and site effects in shaping the recorded seismic wavefield in volcanic environments. Doing so avoids misattributing spectral changes as source-driven, and opens the door to exploiting tremor spectra for monitoring purposes.

How to cite: Yates, A., Caudron, C., Hidalgo, S., Battaglia, J., Zuccarello, L., De Angelis, S., Bakkar Hindeleh, H., and Taylor-Castillo, W.: Multi-volcano observations of coupled tremor spectra and subsurface velocity changes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7373, 2026.

Infrasound has been widely applied to the remote monitoring of explosive volcanic eruptions. Although no active volcanoes are currently present within South Korea, explosive activity in neighboring regions can still generate transboundary hazards that require effective remote monitoring. In this context, we present a quantitative assessment of volcanic eruption detectability using the Korea Infrasound Network (KIN).

The KIN has been operated for more than two decades and was originally established to monitor local and regional acoustic sources and to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic signals. The network consists of Chaparral M2 infrasound sensors, each of which has a flat response from 0.1 to 200 Hz. Since 2011, eight infrasound arrays with apertures ranging from 0.15 to 1.68 km have been fully operational. We evaluate the detectability of eruptions with VEI ≥ 3 that have occurred since 2011, examining detection characteristics as a function of distance, azimuth, and atmospheric propagation conditions. Detection was performed using the Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation (PMCC) algorithm to identify coherent infrasound signals.

Many eruption signals recorded by the KIN extend into frequencies below the nominal flat-response bandwidth and are often obscured by persistent microbarom noise. Despite these limitations, volcanic eruptions were conditionally detected depending on eruption size and atmospheric propagation conditions. The analyzed cases include the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption (VEI 5), the 2020 Taal and 2021 Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruptions (VEI 4), and several VEI 3 eruptions such as Asosan, Kirishimayama, and Raikoke.

Our results indicate that automated eruption detection using KIN is feasible, particularly at the TJIAR array in central South Korea. A long-term PMCC detection catalog spanning approximately 15 years (since 2011) was compiled for TJIAR and compared with independent eruption records from the Tokyo Volcano Ash Advisory Center and the Global Volcanism Program to assess detection reliability. This study represents the first long-term assessment of volcanic infrasound detectability based on the KIN. In addition, low-frequency infrasound sensors (MB3d) with an extended dynamic range were collocated at one of the KIN arrays in 2025 to improve low-frequency detectability. Ongoing work focuses on assessing improvements in eruption detectability through comparisons between legacy and upgraded sensor configurations, with implications for the development of an infrasound-based automated eruption detection and long-term monitoring of explosive volcanic eruptions in East Asia.

How to cite: Park, I. and Che, I.-Y.: Quantitative Assessment of Remote Volcanic Eruption Detectability Using the Korea Infrasound Network, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8960, 2026.

EGU26-9631 | ECS | Orals | GMPV11.3

Distinguishing the wavefield of volcano-seismic events on Mt. Etna: Achieving wavefield separation combining a seismic array and a rotational sensor 

Nele. I. K. Vesely, Eva P. S. Eibl, Gilda Currenti, Mariangela Sciotto, Giuseppe Di Grazia, Matthias Ohrnberger, and Philippe Jousset

Mt. Etna volcano is Europe’s most active volcano, showing pre- and co-eruptive seismic signals as tremor and long-period (LP) events. Understanding those signals contributes to hazard assessment and risk management during volcanic eruptions. In our study we examine the wavefield composition of LP events and volcanic tremor on Mt. Etna. Both are characteristic seismic signals generated by fluid-driven volcanic activity. By combining results from a seismic array and a rotational sensor co-located with a seismometer (6C station), we decipher their wavefield.

For seismic data from August - September 2019 we calculate and compare directional and phase velocity estimates. Back azimuths (BAz) of LP events and tremor from the seismometer array and the 6C station are compared to reference network BAzs which are obtained from locations estimated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) on Mt. Etna.

We observe varying seismic tremor and surface activity which we associate with different eruption phases. During these tremor phases, either the array or 6C BAz estimates agree well with the INGV-OE reference. LP event BAz directions from both methods show a southward shift in comparison with the INGV-OE reference. Local heterogeneities might cause the larger southward deviation of the 6C BAz results in comparison with the array.

Array slowness results indicate that tremor and LP events were primarily composed of surface waves. Rotational sensor recordings further indicate a wavefield dominated by SH-type waves. Together with the array results, this suggests a Love-wave dominated wavefield. The combination of rotational sensors with seismic arrays significantly enhances our ability to constrain the wavefield in complex volcanic settings.

How to cite: Vesely, N. I. K., Eibl, E. P. S., Currenti, G., Sciotto, M., Di Grazia, G., Ohrnberger, M., and Jousset, P.: Distinguishing the wavefield of volcano-seismic events on Mt. Etna: Achieving wavefield separation combining a seismic array and a rotational sensor, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9631, 2026.

EGU26-10062 * | Orals | GMPV11.3 | Highlight

The details of the 2021 Nyiragongo eruption using infrasound 

Julien Barrière, Adrien Oth, Jelle Assink, Nicolas d'Oreye, and Läslo Evers

Eruptions at continental basaltic volcanoes can take and combine various forms, including lava lakes, lava flows and fountaining, explosions or structural collapses. Recording seismicity is widely recognized as essential for tracking magma movements at depth but must be complemented with other observations for monitoring eruptions, which are by essence atmospheric processes. Aside from a few well-instrumented cases worldwide, accurately reconstructing the precise eruptive mechanisms and chronology is hampered by the lack of detailed visual observations in space and time. However, because they emit low-pitched inaudible sounds, called infrasounds, any changing and potentially hazardous eruptive activity can be inferred with specialised microphones.

On 22 May 2021 in D.R. Congo, the drainage of Nyiragongo’s long-lived and world’s largest lava lake was accompanied by lava flows from eruptive fissures toward a one-million urban area composed of the cities of Goma (D.R. Congo) and Gisenyi (Rwanda). After 1977 and 2002, this was the third known flank eruption and the first one adequately monitored with seismic and geodetic instruments to understand magma movements at depth. A probable scenario supported by these geophysical observations is the rupture of the edifice, starting around 15:57 UTC, draining the lava lake during a short-term (~6 hours) flank eruption and initiating a week-long magmatic intrusion (dyke) in the Earth’s crust.

Using acoustic numerical modeling, we converted infrasound records from local distance (< 20 km) up to Kenya (more than 800 km away from Nyiragongo) into high-resolution time-lapse observations of this catastrophic lava-lake drainage. The emitted infrasounds also provided unprecedented insights into the timing of fissure openings and lava eruptions on the volcanic flank, occurring simultaneously with the lava lake drainage. This striking example highlights how decoding each specific volcano’s acoustic signature provides unique information inaccessible to other ground-based instruments, which can be integrated to monitoring and multi-hazard early warning systems.

How to cite: Barrière, J., Oth, A., Assink, J., d'Oreye, N., and Evers, L.: The details of the 2021 Nyiragongo eruption using infrasound, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10062, 2026.

EGU26-10295 | ECS | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Direct seismic data inversion for volcanoes using machine learning: a comparison of 2D and 3D cases 

Conall Evans, Ivan Lokmer, Chris Bean, and Eoghan Totten

Imaging volcanic interiors is of paramount importance for understanding volcano-seismic signals and their underlying sources. However, determining fine scale structure in highly heterogeneous media is a significant challenge using traditional imaging approaches. Furthermore, modelling and inversion tools often employ cumbersome and lengthy procedures, which can be slow to implement, especially during volcanic crises when results are needed swiftly as large data volumes  arrive at Volcano Observatories. Machine-learning (ML) methods, which have experienced rapid growth over the last decade, have strong potential to address this challenge due to their suitability for complementing physics-based numerical simulations and inversion. In particular, we examine the feasibility of imaging small-scale heterogeneities beneath volcanoes, such as propagating individual dykes, directly from seismic data using rapid ML-based imaging.

Here we build on previous work where a large suite (> 5000) of seismic earthquake gathers (i.e. seismic records from individual earthquakes) derived from numerical simulations in highly heterogeneous 2D velocity models, were used to train a Fourier Neural Operator (FNO). Subsequently that FNO was used to invert for complex structure in previously unseen geologically realistic 2D models. As the training procedure is extremely computationally expensive, and is likely prohibitive in 3D, here we ask: “can meaningful information be retrieved from seismic data derived from 3D simulations, based on an FNO that was trained only on 2D seismic data”?  We see the answer to this question as important, as it helps determine the nature of the FNO training required in order to apply this new methodology beyond the numerical domain into the 3D physical world.

We build 3D models that are consistent with the 2D models used for machine learning training. Seismic data are generated from these models, and we evaluate how well a 2D pre-trained algorithm can recover geological structures and velocity characteristics from the 3D data.

How to cite: Evans, C., Lokmer, I., Bean, C., and Totten, E.: Direct seismic data inversion for volcanoes using machine learning: a comparison of 2D and 3D cases, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10295, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10295, 2026.

EGU26-10412 | ECS | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

More Than Shaking: What Rotations and Strain Reveal About Volcanic Unrest at Mt. Etna 

Gizem Izgi, Gilda Currenti, Eva P.S. Eibl, Daniel Vollmer, Daniele Pellegrino, Mario Pulvirenti, Salvatore Alparone, Graziano Larocca, and Phillippe Jousset

Monitoring volcanic unrest at complex volcanoes such as Mt. Etna remains challenging due to the coexistence of diverse seismic sources, including volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes, sustained tremor and strong scattering in heterogeneous structures. Traditionally, such processes are investigated using translational seismometers alone, potentially limiting the characterization of the underlying wavefield and its physical interpretation.

In this study, we explore the added value of combining translational, rotational, and distributed dynamic strain sensing (DDSS) observations to investigate seismic activity during the December 2025/ January 2026 eruptive activity of Mt. Etna. We analyze six-component ground-motion recordings from a rotational sensor co-located with a conventional seismometer, complemented by DDSS measurements along a nearby fiber-optic cable. Using root-mean-square (RMS) amplitude analyses we examine the temporal evolution of seismic energy associated with tremor and VT activity across the different sensing modalities.

Preliminary results indicate that rotational and translational measurements capture complementary aspects of the volcanic wavefield, with rotational data emphasizing continuous, wavefield-dominated energy components, while translational recordings highlight both impulsive and sustained signals. DDSS observations provide dense spatial sampling, offering additional constraints on signal coherence, propagation characteristics, and source localization. When analyzed jointly, these datasets reveal a more coherent and interpretable picture of volcanic unrest than any single sensor type alone.

Our observations suggest that multi-sensor seismic monitoring, integrating translational, rotational, and DDSS measurements, is particularly advantageous in complex volcanic environments where scattering, anisotropy, and mixed source processes complicate traditional analyses. This work highlights the potential of such integrated approaches for improving the detection, characterization, and interpretation of volcanic seismicity and motivates their broader application in future volcano monitoring strategies.

How to cite: Izgi, G., Currenti, G., Eibl, E. P. S., Vollmer, D., Pellegrino, D., Pulvirenti, M., Alparone, S., Larocca, G., and Jousset, P.: More Than Shaking: What Rotations and Strain Reveal About Volcanic Unrest at Mt. Etna, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10412, 2026.

EGU26-10564 | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

A high‑resolution water fountain catalogue reveals an abrupt hydrothermal change at Strokkur geyser, Iceland 

Eva P. S. Eibl, Gizem Izgi, Thomas R. Walter, Sebastian Heimann, Gylfi Páll Hersir, Karl Jóhann Guðnason, and Valdimar Kristjánsson

Strokkur geyser in the Haukadalir valley in south Iceland is an erupting hot spring that allows studying hydrothermal processes. Since March 2020, we have continuously monitored Strokkur using three seismometers located ~40 m from the conduit. This long-term dataset has enabled the creation of a high‑resolution catalogue containing more than 760,000 individual water‑fountain events, which has previously been used to investigate eruption types, driving mechanisms, and the influence of air temperature and wind on geyser dynamics.

In this contribution, we present a striking change in Strokkur’s behaviour that occurred on 18 October 2024 at 18:00. Following this moment, the geyser began producing a larger number of water fountains per eruption, more water fountains per hour and exhibited a markedly shorter recharge cycle. Simultaneously, several neighbouring hot springs activated or increased their activity. Because the onset of this transition was captured seismically, the dataset offers a rare opportunity to examine the triggering mechanism and its implications for subsurface fluid pathways.

By analysing the spatio‑temporal evolution of seismic signals associated with this behavioural shift, we explore the underlying processes driving the system’s reorganisation. The study highlights the value of dense seismic monitoring and detailed event catalogues for understanding hydrothermal dynamics, and it provides insights into geothermal systems and their time‑dependent changes.

How to cite: Eibl, E. P. S., Izgi, G., Walter, T. R., Heimann, S., Hersir, G. P., Guðnason, K. J., and Kristjánsson, V.: A high‑resolution water fountain catalogue reveals an abrupt hydrothermal change at Strokkur geyser, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10564, 2026.

EGU26-10750 | ECS | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Seismic, acoustic, and visual observations of ash-rich plume events during the Geldingadalir eruption, Iceland 

Alea Joachim, Sebastian Heimann, Oliver D. Lamb, Eva P. S. Eibl, Talfan Barnie, Egill Á. Gudnason, Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir, Thor Thordason, Gylfi P. Hersir, Tom Winder, Nicholas Rawlinson, Tomáš Fischer, Jana Doubravová, and Jan Burjánek

In 2021, an eruption began in the Geldingadalir valley in southwest Iceland, lasting six months. This eruption exhibited a constantly changing eruption dynamic recorded as volcanic tremor of varying duration and amplitude. In May 2021 a transition occurred, from continuous tremor in the early phase of the eruption, to minute-long tremor episodes. Throughout this period the vent featured an active lava lake. On 2 July, the lava lake drained and several ash-rich plumes rose from the crater between 3:00 and 5:00 am. The plumes were accompanied by several transient seismic and acoustic signals. Following these events, the volcanic tremor shifted from minute-long to hour-long episodes. 

Here, we use a multidisciplinary approach combining video footage with seismic and acoustic data to investigate the source process and its potential link to the observed tremor transition. We performed a source inversion of the seismically strongest event using seismometers within 6-8 km distance from the active crater. We tested different source models and compared the simulated waveforms to those that were observed to constrain the source. In addition, we calculated the Volcanic Acoustic–Seismic Ratio (VASR) using seismic and acoustic tremor recordings. The VASR reveals a decrease over time. The local webcam footage provides an insight into surface processes including inner crater collapses preceding several ash-rich plumes. This observation suggests a potential link between shallow collapses, plume generation and seismic and acoustic signals. These collapses may have modified the shallow conduit and caused the transition from minute-long to hour-long episodes.

How to cite: Joachim, A., Heimann, S., Lamb, O. D., Eibl, E. P. S., Barnie, T., Gudnason, E. Á., Ágústsdóttir, T., Thordason, T., Hersir, G. P., Winder, T., Rawlinson, N., Fischer, T., Doubravová, J., and Burjánek, J.: Seismic, acoustic, and visual observations of ash-rich plume events during the Geldingadalir eruption, Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10750, 2026.

EGU26-10978 | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

First insights into the 2023 Piton de la Fournaise eruption: Revealing two distinct tremor signals 

Matthias Ohrnberger, Nele I. K. Vesely, Eva P. S. Eibl, Cyril Journeau, Zacharie Duputel, Daniel Vollmer, Christophe Brunet, Frédéric Lauret, and Valérie Ferrazzini

Piton de la Fournaise volcano on La Réunion island is a shield volcano that showed annual eruptive behavior since 2014. Following the last eruption of this eruptive cycle in 2023, only seismic crises were detected, but no eruption occurred until the time of writing, making the analysis of the 2023 eruption especially important. The 2023 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise volcano began on 2 July with two fissure openings on the northeastern flank, followed by a third eruptive vent on the southeastern flank that lasted until 10 August. We analyze data from a temporary seismic array on the western flank within Enclos Fouqué Caldera and the permanent network from the Volcanological Observatory of Piton de la Fournaise (OVPF-IPGP) to investigate the eruption dynamics.

The tremor frequency range varies slightly between the three fissure activity periods but is mostly concentrated between 0.8 and 4 Hz. Tremor amplitude and GNSS measurements at the summit crater show similar changes for the start and towards the end of the eruption as previously observed at the volcano. While the network analysis provides highly accurate locations for the three distinct fissures, we only obtain well fitting back azimuths (BAz) for specific times from the seismic array. Slowness results from the array however help distinguish the tremor signal into surface and body waves, and for certain phases even indicate the existence of two distinct tremor sources.

The deviating array back azimuths that are observed for the surface waves are interpreted to be related to the medium heterogeneity within the crater region including topographic effects. Our preliminary results, combining two different methods allow the determination of two tremor signals for one fissure site that exhibit different frequency ranges and amplitudes and possibly originate from both subsurface and surface sources. We assume that surface activity is dominating the analysis, but once decreased, a weaker tremor signal at depths becomes visible.

How to cite: Ohrnberger, M., Vesely, N. I. K., Eibl, E. P. S., Journeau, C., Duputel, Z., Vollmer, D., Brunet, C., Lauret, F., and Ferrazzini, V.: First insights into the 2023 Piton de la Fournaise eruption: Revealing two distinct tremor signals, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10978, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10978, 2026.

EGU26-11324 | ECS | Orals | GMPV11.3

An enhanced catalogue of ring fault seismicity at Bárðarbunga caldera since the start of the 2014 Holuhraun eruption  

Ylse Anna de Vries, Elías Rafn Heimisson, and Tom Winder

The 2014-2015 Bárðarbunga dike intrusion and caldera collapse, leading to the six-month Holuhraun eruption, featured more than 80 recurring Mw ≥ 5 earthquakes located on the caldera ring fault. The caldera floor, covered by the Vatnajökull ice cap, subsided by 65 meters during the eruptive period. Continuous monitoring using an extensive seismic network has shown evidence of fault slip reversal and repeating earthquakes. The sequence of moderate-sized ring fault earthquakes resumed in 2017, suggesting a continuation of the same type of fault slip behaviour in response to the reversal of the collapse.  

We re-examine the data prior and post fault slip reversal in the 2014-2016 period to improve our understanding of the processes governing the recurring earthquake sequence observed since the eruption starting in 2014. 

We use the seismic data collected since 2014 to build a new earthquake catalogue for the caldera ring faultWe use template matching to detect previously undetected lomagnitude earthquakes. We developed a tailored data processing pipeline, leveraging the Icelandic HPC computing cluster and its GPU nodes, to optimize template matching and earthquake cross correlations, with an emphasis on finding repeating earthquakes on the caldera ring fault. We additionally carry out double difference relocation.  

We present an enhanced earthquake catalogue for the 2014-2016 period, with particular focus on the post-eruptive fault slip reversalincluding a repeating earthquake analysis. We achieve a fourfold increase in the number of events in the catalogue and can detect events up to 1 ML lower than the input catalogue. Using parallelisation, we can speed up our processing by up to 16 times on the HPC clusters. With new better-constrained catalogues generated using dense temporary networks from recent field campaigns, we are working towards improving locations for catalogues based on older data using double-difference relocation techniques.  

When the resurgence period is included, the Bárðarbunga caldera collapse event has effectively lasted for almost 12 years and includes more than 100 Mw ≥ 5 earthquakes. Re-examining older data with state-of-the-art processing techniques and computing resources offers a unique opportunity to build further context and aid holistic interpretation for the on-going events at the caldera, as well as to increase our broader understanding of faults undergoing large slip movements and the evolution of caldera collapse cycles. 

How to cite: de Vries, Y. A., Heimisson, E. R., and Winder, T.: An enhanced catalogue of ring fault seismicity at Bárðarbunga caldera since the start of the 2014 Holuhraun eruption , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11324, 2026.

Volcano seismology and acoustics have advanced rapidly in recent years, significantly improving our ability to observe and interpret volcanic processes across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. This talk will provide a broad overview of currently relevant topics in these fields, with an emphasis on how seismic and acoustic observations jointly constrain magma, gas, and fluid dynamics within volcanic systems. Key themes include evolving interpretations of volcanic tremor, long-period seismicity, and infrasound as expressions of coupled conduit flow, degassing, and fragmentation processes. The growing use of dense seismic and infrasound arrays has enabled improved source localization and characterization, particularly during explosive and transitional eruptive activity, and improved tomographic characterization of trans-crustal magmatic systems. Data-driven approaches, including machine learning, are increasingly applied to detection, classification, and forecasting, complementing physics-based models that link observed signals to underlying processes. This talk will also highlight the expanding role of volcano acoustics, from near-field infrasound and resonance phenomena to atmosphere–volcano coupling, alongside advances in sensor technology and deployment strategies. Finally, I will also discuss implications for hazard assessment and operational monitoring, emphasizing the value of integrated, interdisciplinary approaches and expanded monitoring in understudied volcanic regions.

How to cite: Roman, D.: Listening to Volcanoes: Current Frontiers in Volcano Seismology and Acoustics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11755, 2026.

EGU26-11833 | ECS | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

New images of volcanic systems on the Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland, from ambient noise tomography using a regional node array  

William Pizii, Nicholas Rawlinson, Tom Winder, Robert S. White, Bryndís Brandsdóttir, Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir, Jana Doubravová, and Jan Burjánek

Unrest has been ongoing on the Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland, since 2019, with inflation in the Fagradalsfjall and Eldvörp-Svartsengi volcanic centres resulting in a series of volcanic eruptions beginning in 2021. We have operated a permanent broadband seismometer network on the peninsula since June 2020, complemented by networks run by several other groups. Recently, these were supplemented by 24 three-component nodes for two months starting in September 2025, which provided improved coverage in the western part of the peninsula, and further enhanced both the spatial footprint and density of the combined arrays.

Using this new dataset, and taking advantage of a period of relative volcanic and seismic quiescence, a new 3D shear wave velocity model for the peninsula is constructed from inter-station surface wave dispersion curves extracted from ambient seismic noise cross-correlations. The dense node deployment also allows analysis of shallow crustal anisotropy, thus helping to pinpoint magmatic storage regions and areas of shallow fractures. The final model spans the shallow crust from the surface to 8 km depth, with lateral model resolution approaching 1 km above the brittle-ductile transition. This allows imaging of the Reykjanes, Fagradalsfjall and Eldvörp-Svartsengi volcanic systems, as well as of geothermal fields on the peninsula.

How to cite: Pizii, W., Rawlinson, N., Winder, T., White, R. S., Brandsdóttir, B., Ágústsdóttir, T., Doubravová, J., and Burjánek, J.: New images of volcanic systems on the Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland, from ambient noise tomography using a regional node array , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11833, 2026.

EGU26-13331 | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Integrated Seismic Monitoring of Tenerife and Gran Canaria: Insights from OBS and Land-Based Networks 

Itahiza Francisco Domínguez Cerdeña, Antonio Villaseñor, Carmen del Fresno, Rafael Bartolomé, Eduardo D. Suárez, Jaime Barco, Enrique Alonso, Francisco Manuel Pérez-Frías, Ignacio Martínez, José Miguel Carrasco, Belén Gómez-Liste, Violeta Paloma Rechcigyer, María Victoria Manzanedo, Jorge Pereda de Pablo, and Adrián Martín Silván

Understanding geodynamic processes between Tenerife and Gran Canaria is essential for assessing seismic and volcanic hazards in the Canary Islands. The GUANCHE project characterizes seismicity, subsurface structure, and related phenomena through an integrated approach, combining land-based and ocean-bottom seismic networks.

The land-based campaign ran from April 2023 to December 2024, with 13 temporary stations across Gran Canaria transmitting real-time data to the IGN analysis center. Three high-quality sites were upgraded to permanent IGN stations after the campaign, ensuring continued seismic monitoring of the area. The marine component, using ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS), was deployed in January 2024, with data collected in June 2024. Observations from these temporary networks were integrated with the existing permanent network in Tenerife and Gran Canaria to provide a comprehensive dataset for seismic investigations.

This integrated network improves detection and localization of low-magnitude seismic events. A 3D velocity model derived from project data was applied to refine earthquake locations, providing the basis for clustering, which reveals distinct seismogenic zones and a complex pattern of activity at multiple depths. Focal mechanisms were determined for the largest earthquakes (Mw > 3.5) using TMS inversion, offering additional constraints on active faulting and regional stress.

These results highlight the value of integrated seismic monitoring for understanding seismicity patterns and geodynamic processes. This study is a collaborative effort between the Instituto Geográfico Nacional (IGN) and the Instituto de Ciencias del Mar (ICM), combining expertise in seismic monitoring and marine seismici

How to cite: Domínguez Cerdeña, I. F., Villaseñor, A., del Fresno, C., Bartolomé, R., Suárez, E. D., Barco, J., Alonso, E., Pérez-Frías, F. M., Martínez, I., Carrasco, J. M., Gómez-Liste, B., Rechcigyer, V. P., Manzanedo, M. V., Pereda de Pablo, J., and Martín Silván, A.: Integrated Seismic Monitoring of Tenerife and Gran Canaria: Insights from OBS and Land-Based Networks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13331, 2026.

EGU26-13414 | ECS | Orals | GMPV11.3

More than a drumbeat – Towards a new suite of periodic patterns in volcano-seismology 

Bastian Steinke, Corentin Caudron, and Shane Cronin

Volcano observatories often rely on their ability to accurately decipher volcano-seismic signals to assess the state of a specific volcanic system. For this purpose, well-established patterns such as VT and LP event sequences during pre-eruptive unrest phases – or their periodic manifestation as ‘drumbeats’ – constitute a trusted and reasonably well-understood parameter. We present a suite of similarly distinct, but less commonly observed periodic patterns recorded at various volcanic systems, notably consisting of stable and dynamic drumbeat-like seismicity, as well as pulsed and spiked tremor episodes. Within that, we focus on a long-term pulsed tremor signal recorded during a rare dome-extrusion phase at Whakaari/White Island (New Zealand). Considering the resemblance between this and other instances of pulsed tremor observed at comparably phreatic systems in Indonesia and Costa Rica, we interpret the occurrence of such periodic seismicity as the mechanical response of partially sealed hydrothermal systems upon the influx of magmatic and non-magmatic fluids. These often short-lived patterns are very hard to trace using conventional Volcano Observatory monitoring tools, such as EQ detectors and tremor-based metrics (e.g., RSAM, SSAM, DSAR), and their significance for volcanic hazard assessment is largely unknown. As Machine Learning techniques are becoming increasingly accessible, we explore in how far they constitute an opportunity to track these elusive seismic patterns. Using this case study as a starting point, we push towards further investigation of similar periodic signals and their underlying physical source processes. We seek to discuss how common such subtle patterns are, and how they can be detected and interpreted within their respective volcano-environmental contexts.

How to cite: Steinke, B., Caudron, C., and Cronin, S.: More than a drumbeat – Towards a new suite of periodic patterns in volcano-seismology, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13414, 2026.

EGU26-13585 | ECS | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Implications for existing tremor generation models on volcanoes through newly observed high-frequency tremor on Mt. Etna 

Maurice Weber, Christopher Bean, Jean Baptiste Tary, Jean Soubestre, Ivan Lokmer, Silvio De Angelis, Luciano Zuccarello, and Patrick Smith

Seismic tremor is widely monitored for eruption forecasting, yet its use requires improved understanding of its source processes, which remain debated. Tremor is commonly attributed to magma transport or fluid-induced resonance within volcanic plumbing systems. However, alternative studies suggest that fluids may not be required: weak, unconsolidated edifice materials geomechanically near the brittle–ductile transition can undergo diffusive brittle failure at room temperature, producing numerous low-amplitude, small-stress-drop seismic events that merge into tremor. Minor stress perturbations—caused by magma flow, gas influx, or gravitational loading—may be sufficient to trigger such dry mechanical failure.

Here, we investigate episodic high-frequency tremor (10–20 Hz) recorded at the summit of Mt. Etna during a dense seismo-acoustic deployment in summer 2022. Despite strong attenuation and scattering at these frequencies, we show that variations in the seismo-acoustic energy ratio across tremor episodes reveal differing conditions under which tremor is produced. Using multi-array beamforming and 3D grid-search techniques, we locate tremor sources in multiple regions, including both degassing-related and non-degassing areas. Synthetic tests indicate that some tremor episodes likely comprise multiple simultaneous sources, consistent with diffusive brittle failure. Frequency–magnitude analyses further support a model in which tremor arises from sequences of small-magnitude, very low stress-drop events merging into tremor due to the cumulative scaling observed and comparison with previous numerical work on seismic event population. Together, our results indicate that volcanic tremor does not necessarily require fluid movement and may also be generated by dry brittle failure processes.

How to cite: Weber, M., Bean, C., Tary, J. B., Soubestre, J., Lokmer, I., De Angelis, S., Zuccarello, L., and Smith, P.: Implications for existing tremor generation models on volcanoes through newly observed high-frequency tremor on Mt. Etna, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13585, 2026.

EGU26-13765 | ECS | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Azores Infrasound Network: Analysis of background noise 

Linda Inês Silva, Sandro Matos, Emanuele Marchetti, and Nicolau Wallenstein

In 2010, the station IS42 was the first infrasound station to be installed in the Azores, located on Graciosa Island in the central group of the Azores archipelago, in the middle of the North Atlantic. This station integrates the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). Although the mission of the CTBTO is to put an end to nuclear tests, the long-term infrasound data recorded by IMS have proven to be very valuable for monitoring and understanding natural phenomena, including seismo-volcanic activity in the Azores.

With the aim of monitoring the 2022 seismo-volcanic crisis on São Jorge Island, a first portable infrasound array was deployed to complement the data recorded from the permanent IMS station and enrich the archipelago’s monitoring network. A second portable array was subsequently deployed on Terceira Island, and an additional array is planned for deployment on Faial Island later this year, further strengthening the Azores infrasound monitoring network.

This study analyses the performance and behaviour of the portable arrays, using IS42 as a reference station. We applied a multi-channel correlation analysis in the time domain to evaluate the influence of background noise on the recorded signals and assess the impact of station location and environmental conditions on the detections. Root-mean-square (RMS) noise analyses were combined with source direction estimates based on the detections’ back azimuths. Seasonal analyses of the detections revealed a strong influence of atmospheric conditions on noise levels and, consequently, on back azimuth directions. These results highlight the importance of noise characterisation of integrated infrasound observations in oceanic islands.

How to cite: Silva, L. I., Matos, S., Marchetti, E., and Wallenstein, N.: Azores Infrasound Network: Analysis of background noise, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13765, 2026.

EGU26-14232 | Orals | GMPV11.3

Tracking Tremor and Drumbeat Locations during the 2022 Unrest Episode of Ruapehu volcano, Aotearoa New Zealand 

Oliver Lamb, Miriam Reiss, Finnigan Illsley-Kemp, Liam Bramwell, Christine Moutell, Corentin Caudron, and Alexander Yates

Ruapehu is one of the most active volcanoes in Aotearoa New Zealand, with over 100 eruptive events over the last 135 years. In 2022, the volcano underwent a significant period of unrest which included a new heating phase in the summit crater lake, increases in gas emissions, and strong levels of seismic tremor, the most intense observed at the volcano for nearly 30 years. The tremor was also notable for featuring a sequence of highly-periodic low frequency “drumbeats”. Both tremor and drumbeats were hypothesised to originate from within a shallow hydrothermal system but a sparse seismic network precluded accurate location information. Here we utilised the network covariance matrix approach to map the location of tremor within the Ruapehu volcanic system before and during the 2022 unrest episode. We find low level tremor is detectable up to three months before the unrest begins, beginning shortly before a small sub-summit earthquake swarm approximately 3 - 4 km below the summit. Tremor during the unrest period is primarily located at shallow depths, within 500 m of the summit vent, suggesting a mechanism within the shallow hydrothermal system. This study was the first to apply the network covariance method for studying tremor at Ruapehu and demonstrates the technique’s value as an effective tool for real-time volcanic tremor monitoring in Aotearoa New Zealand.

How to cite: Lamb, O., Reiss, M., Illsley-Kemp, F., Bramwell, L., Moutell, C., Caudron, C., and Yates, A.: Tracking Tremor and Drumbeat Locations during the 2022 Unrest Episode of Ruapehu volcano, Aotearoa New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14232, 2026.

EGU26-14560 | ECS | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Characterisation of the 2022–23 unrest episode at Taupō volcano, Aotearoa New Zealand 

Eleanor Mestel, Finnigan Illsley-Kemp, Martha Savage, Colin Wilson, and Sigrún Hreinsdóttir

Taupō volcano is a frequently active rhyolitic caldera volcano in the central North Island of Aotearoa New Zealand that was the site of Earth’s most recent supereruption (Ōruanui, ∼25.5 ka), as well as one of the most violent eruptions globally of the last 5000 years (Taupō, 232±10 CE). Taupō has erupted 28 times since the Ōruanui event and displays unrest activity (seismicity and surface deformation) on roughly decadal timescales. In 2022–23, Taupō volcano underwent a period of unrest with elevated levels of earthquakes and ground deformation, including a M 5.7 earthquake that caused a tsunami within Lake Taupō. This elevated activity resulted in the Volcanic Alert Level for Taupō being raised to Level 1 for the first time. Here, we present results from a detailed characterisation of the activity beneath Taupō throughout the year-long unrest episode including a catalogue of earthquake locations; relative relocations; magnitudes; and focal mechanisms. We focus particularly on the detail in the catalogue that reveal the processes, state and structure of the modern magma reservoir beneath Taupō and builds our ability to interpret future unrest and possible eruption at the volcano. 

How to cite: Mestel, E., Illsley-Kemp, F., Savage, M., Wilson, C., and Hreinsdóttir, S.: Characterisation of the 2022–23 unrest episode at Taupō volcano, Aotearoa New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14560, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14560, 2026.

EGU26-14959 | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Seismic characterization of pre- and post-fountaining phenomena during the 2024-2026 Kīlauea eruption sequence 

Diana Roman, Miriam Reiss, and Corentin Caudron

The ongoing (2024-) eruption sequence at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai’i, has comprised 40 (as of mid-January, 2026) episodes of high fire fountaining, as well as episodes of dome fountaining, effusive eruption, and gas pistoning (series of cyclical overflows and drain-back of lava). While many episodes of gas pistoning are visually apparent in webcam footage, seismic characterization of gas pistoning and VLP swarms allows for an objective analysis of pistoning frequency, amplitude, and duration, providing greater insight into the gas ascent and escape process and its relationship to fire fountaining episodes. We thus analyze continuous RSAM to quantify the timing, duration, frequency, and amplitude of gas pistoning throughout the 2024-2026 eruption sequence and its relationship to fire fountain heights and durations.

 

Gas pistoning was first observed in March of 2025 as an immediate precursor to fire fountaining, and post-March fire fountains have generally been preceded by gas pistoning. The onset of precursory gas pistoning corresponds to a shift to shorter-lived fire fountains, suggesting that precursory gas pistoning contributes to the duration of fire fountain episodes. However, beginning in late May, gas pistoning became more decoupled from high fountaining, with a marked delay between the end of gas pistoning and the high fountain onset. The fountains that follow a delay after pistoning are among the highest in the eruption sequence, suggesting that a short-term sealing of gas pathways contributes to greater fountain heights. The most recent (November 2025 onwards) episodes of fire fountaining have also been followed by swarms of repeating VLP events or by additional gas-pistoning tremor, suggesting ongoing gas escape following the end of high fire fountaining. Overall, seismic observations indicating increased precursory and post-fountaining degassing suggest increasing degrees of vertical connectivity in Kīlauea’s magma transport system.

How to cite: Roman, D., Reiss, M., and Caudron, C.: Seismic characterization of pre- and post-fountaining phenomena during the 2024-2026 Kīlauea eruption sequence, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14959, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14959, 2026.

EGU26-15346 | ECS | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Magma Migration at Laguna Del Maule, Chile, Using Well Constrained Seismicity and Receiver Function Imaging 

Jim Bradford, Sankha Mahanti, Eric Kiser, Susan Beck, Martin Fernandez, Ryan Porter, Ariane Maharaj, Hannah Howe, Gustavo Ortiz, and Mauro Saez

Continental volcanic arcs are driven by melting in the mantle wedge between a subducting oceanic plate and overriding continental plate. These melts are emplaced within the continental crust where they then fractionate and evolve, producing silicic volcanic rocks. From observations of these systems globally, we understood them to have magmatic plumbing networks organized into transcrustal systems, and while the geometries of these systems are somewhat constrained, the links between magma storage regions, melt migration and surface unrest remains poorly understood. At Laguna Del Maule (LdM) in central Chile, where volcanic unrest is being currently monitored, we use two densely deployed seismic datasets of nodal and broadband seismometers to study these connections in detail. Here, we present interpretations using well constrained earthquake locations and high resolution crustal-scale seismic imaging using Receiver Functions (RFs), to infer the magma plumbing network and interconnectivity within this modern arc volcano setting.

Over 4300 events were detected within the periods between 2015-2018 and 2022-2024 and are divided into shallow and deep groups. Shallow seismicity is separated into clusters consistent with prior observations that link fault activity to shallow magma intrusion. Those events occurring within the deep crust (~12-30 km) are a new observation, containing a mixture of high and low frequency earthquakes. Through Frequency Index Analysis, we classify those deep events with low frequencies as Deep Long Period earthquakes (DLP). These have been observed in other volcanic arcs, but this data contains the first evidence of DLP seismicity within the Andes. The deep higher frequency events are provided in a pronounced one-day swarm of activity in 2018, all with similar magnitude and frequency index. The swarm has a vertical extent between ~21-26 km depth, and we interpret this activity to be a Volcano-Tectonic swarm (VT) related to magma migration within the middle-lower crust. In the RF images, the VT swarm is located between the top of a low velocity zone (LVZ) in the lower crust, and the base of an upper crust LVZ. The lower crust LVZ likely represents an area of deep magma storage that intermittently incubates the upper crust system with batches of basic magmas. RF images of the upper crust LVZ are consistent with prior geophysical estimates of the geometry and approximate spatial extent of LdMs shallow magma chamber.

Three months following the deep VT swarm, vertical surface uplift in the local GPS record accelerates. We therefore infer that the VT swarm was driven by the delivery of a new batch of magma from lower to upper crustal magma reservoirs. This applied additional pressure to the base of the upper crustal reservoir, leading to a surficial response in a lag-time consistent with the systems hydraulic diffusivity (~20 m2/s). Since this inflation rate has been maintained at least until 2020, the VT swarm may represent the establishment of a new preferred magma ascent path. These results indicate that volcanic unrest is preceded months in advance by seismic activity occurring within the middle-lower crust, applying bottom-up reservoir pressurization in arc volcanoes. 

How to cite: Bradford, J., Mahanti, S., Kiser, E., Beck, S., Fernandez, M., Porter, R., Maharaj, A., Howe, H., Ortiz, G., and Saez, M.: Magma Migration at Laguna Del Maule, Chile, Using Well Constrained Seismicity and Receiver Function Imaging, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15346, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15346, 2026.

EGU26-16967 | ECS | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Eruption Forecasting Using Random Forest on Single-Component Seismic Data: Insights from Three Indonesian Volcanoes (Semeru, Lewotobi Laki-laki, and Ruang) 

Martanto Martanto, Corentin Caudron, Thomas Lecocq, Devy Kamil Syahbana, and Andri Dian Nugraha

This research employs a Random Forest machine learning method to forecast eruption probability for three Indonesian volcanoes: Semeru, Lewotobi Laki-laki, and Ruang. The primary objectives are to (1) evaluate model performance under varying data quality conditions and (2) test the transferability of forecasting models between different volcanic systems. We compare three scenarios: Semeru's major eruptions (December 2020 and 2021) with significant data gaps, Lewotobi Laki-laki's seven major eruptions (March - August 2025) with high data completeness, and Ruang's eruption (April 2024).

Seismic data from the vertical component (Z) were processed using Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM), Displacement Seismic Amplitude Ratio (DSAR), and MSNoise to monitor seismic amplitude variations and relative velocity changes. Statistical methods extracted an initial set of 768 features from these processed signals. After removing highly correlated features, the top 20 most relevant features were selected for model training.

For Semeru, a model trained on the 2020 eruption successfully forecasted the 2021 eruption, with forecast probability exceeding the 0.7 threshold 12 hours prior to the eruption. For Lewotobi Laki-laki, models trained on earlier eruptions (March-April 2025) successfully forecasted subsequent event in May 2025, achieving lead times ranging from 6 hours to 1 day. Cross-volcano testing revealed that the Semeru-trained model failed to forecast the Ruang eruption, likely due to data incompleteness. In contrast, the Lewotobi Laki-laki model successfully forecasted the Ruang eruption 6 hours in advance, demonstrating successful model transferability. These results highlight the critical importance of data completeness for developing robust, transferable eruption forecasting systems.

How to cite: Martanto, M., Caudron, C., Lecocq, T., Syahbana, D. K., and Nugraha, A. D.: Eruption Forecasting Using Random Forest on Single-Component Seismic Data: Insights from Three Indonesian Volcanoes (Semeru, Lewotobi Laki-laki, and Ruang), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16967, 2026.

EGU26-17156 | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Conduit resonance modulation of volcanic puffing (and maybe more) 

Laura Spina, Jacopo Taddeucci, Francesca Iezzi, Clothilde Biensan, Francesco Penacchia, Maurice Weber, Luciano Zuccarello, Silvio De Angelis, Danilo Palladino, and Piergiorgio Scarlato

Regularly pulsating emissions are frequent during volcanic activity, especially at open vent mafic systems. Most typical of such emissions is puffing, i.e., the intermittent or periodic emission of pressurized gas volumes from a vent, with or without the ejection of pyroclasts. Puffing is usually interpreted as the result of the explosion of gas bubbles at the surface of a static magma column. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that a steady gas flux can be transformed into a pulsating flux by closed pipe resonance, and provide field evidence for this process occurring at Mt. Etna volcano (Italy) in 2023. In laboratory, we inject pressurized air through a valve system and into a pipe of variable length and 4 cm in diameter. At certain inlet pressures, pipe resonance is triggered and the air flow from the pipe opening (nozzle), visualized by the injection of fog, pulsates. In particular, high-speed imaging at the nozzle revealed the repeated formation of vortex rings alternating with air re-entering the pipe nozzle in a kind of ‘backwash’. Video analysis reveals that air fluctuations at the nozzle have characteristic resonance frequencies that agree with the closed-pipe resonant frequency of the pipe. The same frequencies appear in the power spectrum of the acoustic signal from the experiment, supporting the notion that standing pressure waves in the pipe control the temporal flux of outgoing air flow. Puffing activity at Etna in 2023 produced volcanic vortex rings (VVR) alternating with ‘backwash’ phases. Thermal video imagery displays two characteristic frequencies of temperature changes above the vent, at 0.25 and 0.5 Hz, with a possible third one at 0.75 Hz, in agreement with a resonance process. No peak appears at these frequencies in the spectrum of the infrasonic signal associated with puffing. We conclude that puffing activity and VVR emission at Etna was controlled by conduit resonance that modulated the flux from a steady source of volcanic gases. As far as we can tell from the volcanology literature, despite organ-pipe resonance invoked to explain seismic harmonic tremor and acoustic signals, this the first time that conduit resonance is observed to control volcanic emissions. Resonance modulation may potentially extend to other pressure-controlled volcanic processes, such as bubble explosion, fumarolic activity or control the unsteady flux of erupted material during sustained and larger explosive eruptions, thus representing a key factor to be considered in future investigations.

How to cite: Spina, L., Taddeucci, J., Iezzi, F., Biensan, C., Penacchia, F., Weber, M., Zuccarello, L., De Angelis, S., Palladino, D., and Scarlato, P.: Conduit resonance modulation of volcanic puffing (and maybe more), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17156, 2026.

EGU26-17603 | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Seismic velocity changes during the 2024-26 fountaining sequence at Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi 

Corentin Caudron, Miriam Christina Reiss, Ninfa Bennington, Alicia Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia Rohnacher, Federica Lanza, Christoph Sens-Schönfelder, Arthur D Jolly, Diana Roman, Christelle Wauthier, Arthur Wan Ki Lo, Kyle Anderson, and Ashton Flinders

Kīlauea, Hawaii, one of the world's most active volcanoes, has experienced numerous (>40) eruptive episodes since December 2024 with remarkable lava fountain heights (up to 450m) in Halemaʻumaʻu crater. Following a dike intrusion within the Halemaʻumaʻu crater in December 2024, the eruption entered a stable pressurization and release pattern from January 2025 onwards with lava flows during the sequence confined to Halemaʻumaʻu crater.

We study the 2024-26 sequence focusing on relative seismic velocity changes (dv/v). We use ~20 seismic stations located within 10 km of the Halemaʻumaʻu crater and process the data using the traditional cross-station and less conventional single-station approach and estimate the dv/v using the wavelet approach. The dv/v patterns highlight at least three distinct phases of activity during the 2024-26 eruption sequence, as well as some interesting velocity decreases prior to the onset of the sequence in December 2024 although these are spatially confined. 

We inspect the differences between our new results with previous seismic velocity patterns (2015-2024) and explore the nature of the changes using complementary observations (seismic and geodetic data), as well as numerical modeling. Our study suggests a change in strain patterns at the shallow Halemaʻumaʻu reservoir which implies a dynamic evolution of the magmatic system feeding the eruption. Additionally, we show how deformation (deflation) of the deeper South Caldera reservoir contributes to the observed dv/v patterns. Our study sheds light on the dynamics between different magma reservoirs and links to surface processes.

How to cite: Caudron, C., Reiss, M. C., Bennington, N., Hotovec-Ellis, A., Rohnacher, A., Lanza, F., Sens-Schönfelder, C., Jolly, A. D., Roman, D., Wauthier, C., Lo, A. W. K., Anderson, K., and Flinders, A.: Seismic velocity changes during the 2024-26 fountaining sequence at Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17603, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17603, 2026.

EGU26-18405 | ECS | Orals | GMPV11.3

 An Overview of Seismo-Acoustic and Eruptive Activity at Rincón de la Vieja Volcano 

Henriette Bakkar Hindeleh, Corentin Caudron, Finnigan Illsley-Kemp, Javier F. Pacheco, Leonardo van der Laat, Waldo Taylor, Guillermo E. Alvarado, Mauricio M. Mora, J. Maarten de Moor, Jessica Salas-Navarro, Alejandro Rodríguez, Cyril Muller, Geoffroy Avard, and María Martínez

Rincón de la Vieja is a complex stratovolcano characterized by a persistently active magmatic-hydrothermal system that hosts a hyperacid crater lake with a long record of phreatic and phreatomagmatic activity. This study synthesizes volcanic behavior from 2014 to 2025 using continuous seismo-acoustic monitoring, supported by detailed eruption chronologies, analysis of discrete seismic signals (VTs, tornillos, LPs, banded tremor, and VLPs), and identification of pre-eruptive trends. By combining these observations with ground deformation and SO2 emission measurements, we characterize the evolution of the magmatic–hydrothermal systems . 

Results suggest a shift from a mineralogically sealed system to repeated episodes of conduit opening, culminating in the lowest crater-lake levels observed in the past 20 years in May 2024. We propose two dominant processes governing major eruptive episodes: 1) the buildup of magmatic gases beneath a shallow sealing zone and 2) variations in permeability within the magmatic-hydrothermal system. Both mechanisms regulate eruptive intensity and account for elevated gas output despite declining eruptive energy. The interaction of these processes also defines the primary volcanic hazards, particularly lahars and pyroclastic density currents. This integrative approach enhances our overall understanding of wet volcanic systems and offers a practical framework for improving monitoring strategies, eruption forecasting, and hazard mitigation at highly active volcanoes such as Rincón de la Vieja.

How to cite: Bakkar Hindeleh, H., Caudron, C., Illsley-Kemp, F., Pacheco, J. F., van der Laat, L., Taylor, W., Alvarado, G. E., Mora, M. M., de Moor, J. M., Salas-Navarro, J., Rodríguez, A., Muller, C., Avard, G., and Martínez, M.:  An Overview of Seismo-Acoustic and Eruptive Activity at Rincón de la Vieja Volcano, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18405, 2026.

EGU26-18644 | ECS | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Preliminary imaging of the Eifel Volcanic Field from seismic scattering  

Liam Bramwell, Miriam Reiss, and Luca De Siena

The Eifel region (southwest Germany) is an intracontinental volcanic field of distributed explosive centers, with the last major eruption occurring at the actively degassing Laacher See volcano in 13ka. The temporary Eifel large-N seismic network was deployed here between September 2022 and August 2023, which significantly increased station coverage allowing for a detailed study of the subsurface magmatic system. We use local earthquakes to study the attenuation properties of  the subsurface structure, targeting Laacher See volcano and its surroundings. 

Starting with an automatically derived earthquake catalog, we first perform a number of quality checks to ensure we only use the cleanest waveform traces and picks. Then, we estimate scattering from peak-delay measurements, i.e. the delay of the maximum energy after the S-wave. Our preliminary findings suggest the presence of two upper crustal structures beneath Laacher See, outlined by areas of high scattering, which are typically associated with the presence of small-scale heterogeneities or mechanical discontinuities (e.g. fractures, faults) and range from the surface to 8 and 13 km below sea level. Their proximity to Laacher See suggests that the rise of fluids may be facilitated by these structures. Further analysis will have to show whether the data can also be used to quantify absorption, which would shed even more light on fluid pathways.

How to cite: Bramwell, L., Reiss, M., and De Siena, L.: Preliminary imaging of the Eifel Volcanic Field from seismic scattering , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18644, 2026.

EGU26-19356 | ECS | Orals | GMPV11.3

How do temporal patterns in volcanic seismicity relate to the dynamics between volcanic processes at Mt Etna? 

Jade Eyles, William Frank, Piero Poli, and Salvatore Alparone

Volcanic seismicity is a powerful indicator of activity at volcanoes worldwide, providing information on volcanic structures and subsurface processes such as magmatic fluid transport. Volcanic systems produce a range of eruptive styles and durations; determining whether future eruptions will be explosive or effusive is key for reducing the hazards faced by local communities. Mt. Etna is the largest volcano in Europe and is continuously monitored by a substantial seismic network providing an ideal location to quantitatively constrain links between eruptive styles and seismicity.

During periods of intense volcanic activity, many seismic events will go undetected. A matched filter search identifies repeats of template events, including those which are hidden behind the noise, and can increase a seismic catalogue by a factor of 10. Additionally, it categorises seismic events into families of similar waveforms, implying shared source characteristics and locations. This establishes a framework for investigating how seismic sources evolve that can be linked to subsurface processes and structures, providing a quantitative comparison with the vast and complex eruptive history of Mt. Etna.

Here we focus on the December 2018 flank eruption at Mt Etna, using template events from INGV’s seismic catalogue for a matched filter search across four years of continuous data. We investigate spatial, temporal and waveform trends of individual families, to track how the seismic signal evolves over time - providing a quantitative framework to interpret subsurface processes and eruptive styles at Mt. Etna. Initial results highlight several families that are triggered during different stages of the eruption, coincident with variations seen in GPS and gas emissions during this time frame. This categorisation of seismicity allows finer details to be unveiled that were previously not seen in the original seismic catalogue.

How to cite: Eyles, J., Frank, W., Poli, P., and Alparone, S.: How do temporal patterns in volcanic seismicity relate to the dynamics between volcanic processes at Mt Etna?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19356, 2026.

EGU26-19911 | ECS | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Real-time monitoring of seismic velocity variations during the 2025 Aegean Sea seismic swarm 

Eugenio Mandler, Lucia Zaccarelli, Licia Faenza, and Nikolaos Melis

Monitoring seismic velocity variations in the shallow crust using noise-based techniques has emerged as an effective approach for tracking temporal changes in the local stress field. Despite their potential, real-time implementations of these methods have so far been mostly restricted to volcanic areas and are operational at only a limited number of volcano observatories due to the relative simplicity and speed of application in those contexts. In this work, we present the first real-time monitoring of seismic velocity variations applied to a tectonic seismic swarm in the Aegean Sea, which initiated on January 31, 2025. We introduce objective and rapid procedures to identify the key parameters necessary for the analysis and to compute the probability that new observations belong to the same statistical distribution as the background, allowing us to highlight potential anomalies as they occur. Finally, we interpret the processes driving the Aegean seismic swarm and suggest the presence of distinct recovery patterns in relative velocity variations following the abrupt drops typically observed during co-seismic effects.

 

How to cite: Mandler, E., Zaccarelli, L., Faenza, L., and Melis, N.: Real-time monitoring of seismic velocity variations during the 2025 Aegean Sea seismic swarm, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19911, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19911, 2026.

EGU26-22899 | Posters on site | GMPV11.3

Towards detecting, classifying, locating and leveraging distributed events in strongly scattering media 

Julien Chaput, Iliana Galvan, Rachelle Reisinger, Richard Aster, and Ronni Grapenthin

This study consists of one branch of an ongoing push to understand, locate, and leverage distributed local events on volcanoes with the dual goal of segmenting volcanic and non-volcanic activity and directly imaging the shallow volcanic edifice. Typically, locating small events on volcanoes is particularly difficult due to their emergent appearance and lack of discernable ballistic waves, precluding any metrics related to travel time. Furthermore, edifice imaging through passive approaches is generally limited due to a lack of stable frequency information above ~1 Hz, truncating surface wave sensitivity to mid-crustal scales. Here, we show a two-pronged approach to tackling these problems: 1) The scattering structure of the volcano is studied in detail using active sources and lava lake eruptions coupled with Monte Carlo Radiative Transfer simulations, permitting a full understanding of seismogram envelopes for a given source location. 2) Coda correlations of distributed icequakes and eruptions have been shown to yield very high-quality Green’s functions at frequencies up to 10 Hz. Beyond cutting scatter-based imaging, these can be used to greatly extend the frequency range of dispersion curves, and thus yield valuable upper edifice information that can be coupled with matrix-based scattering imaging effort.

How to cite: Chaput, J., Galvan, I., Reisinger, R., Aster, R., and Grapenthin, R.: Towards detecting, classifying, locating and leveraging distributed events in strongly scattering media, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22899, 2026.

Landslides are among the most destructive natural hazards in Türkiye, where high susceptibility is linked to active tectonic structures, steep topography, and complex climatic conditions. For instance, the Eastern Anatolian Region is recognized as a high-risk zone regarding seismicity and vast mass movements; therefore, reliable predictive tools for hazard mitigation are needed. Although several studies have already applied Machine Learning (ML) methodology for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (LSM) problems in Türkiye, no systematic comparative evaluation of different modelling hierarchies has been performed so far for this particular area in a tectonically complex environment.

This study attempts to fill this gap by developing and rigorously comparing three disparate modeling methods: a statistical baseline, Logistic Regression (LR); an ensemble, Random Forest (RF); and a state-of-the-art deep learning method, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). The study was conducted using a landslide inventory and twelve landslide conditioning factor layers, including topographic data: DEM, Slope, Curvature, TWI; geological data: Lithology and Distance to Fault; environmental data: NDVI and Land Cover.

The core methodology embraced a systematic optimization of dataset splitting, whereby model performance was compared across different test/train ratios in order to identify the most stable and accurate data partition. Results are presented using key statistical metrics, including Accuracy and the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC), for LR, RF, and CNN. The best-performing model and its corresponding optimal test/train ratio were used to generate the final high-resolution LSM map for the Muş-Bingöl area. This forms a scientifically validated tool that can be used for regional land-use planning and risk management.

How to cite: Erdoğan, N. and Akgün, H.: Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Muş-Bingöl region: a comparative analysis and optimization of machine learning models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-498, 2026.

INTRODUCTION

Underground mining frequently leads to surface instability such as subsidence, sinkholes, and landslides. In the Bulqiza chrome mine in Albania, decades of extraction and the transition from cut-and-fill to sublevel stoping have increased rock-mass deformation, resulting in fissures, caving, and surface failures. This study focuses on Profile XIV, where both continuous subsidence and a sinkhole are present, in order to evaluate the accuracy of predictive methods used to assess mining-induced deformation.

AIM

This study aims to assess the surface impacts of underground mining in the Bulqiza district by applying both empirical subsidence modelling and numerical simulations using Finite Element Methods. The study compares predicted results with observed deformation, evaluates the influence of caved zones (goaf) and tectonic structures, and verifies the suitability of using a combined empirical and numerical approach for deformation assessment.

METHODS

Geological and mechanical properties were defined through field investigations and archived mine data. An empirical model with a subsidence coefficient of K = 0.9 was used to calculate the critical collapse depth (Hcal) and compare it with the effective mining depth (Hfac). Numerical simulations were then performed with the Rocscience FEM software for two surface-deformation profiles: one exhibiting continuous subsidence and the other featuring a surface sinkhole. Each profile was modelled under different conditions, including the presence or absence of goaf and the inclusion or exclusion of tectonic influence. Surface displacement was used as the main indicator for assessing deformation.

RESULTS

The empirical model indicated a low likelihood of funnel formation in the subsidence profile, where Hcal was smaller than Hfac, while in the sinkhole profile, Hcal exceeded Hfac, confirming a high probability of collapse consistent with field observations. Numerical modelling supported these findings. In the subsidence profile, vertical displacement remained small around 14 mm regardless of whether the goaf was included, and no funnel formation was predicted. In the sinkhole profile, displacement increased to 24.3 mm when the goaf was considered without tectonics. When tectonic effects were included, displacement increased substantially to values between 40.4 and 61 mm, closely reproducing the actual sinkhole conditions. These results show that tectonics strongly amplifies surface deformation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that both empirical and numerical methods effectively reproduce the types and magnitudes of surface deformation observed in the Bulqiza mine. Numerical modelling closely matched actual conditions, particularly when tectonic effects were incorporated. While goaf conditions had little effect in the subsidence zone, they significantly increased deformation in the sinkhole area. The findings confirm that tectonic structures are a major factor controlling surface collapse and that a combined empirical and numerical approach provides a reliable method for assessing mining-induced surface impacts in Bulqiza and comparable underground mining environments.

How to cite: Belba, P.: Surface Deformation Assessment in the Bulqiza Chrome Mine Using Empirical and Numerical Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-798, 2026.

In recent years, extreme climate events characterized by heavy rainfall and seismic activity have significantly intensified the risks of slope disasters in Taiwan's mountainous regions. This study focuses on Zhongxing Village, Liugui District, Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, an area marked by steep topography and a recurrent history of severe landslides and debris flows. The primary objective is to evaluate slope stability under diverse environmental scenarios using numerical simulation. The methodology utilizes the STEDwin slope stability analysis software, specifically employing the Bishop method, which is based on limit equilibrium theory. A representative geographic profile near Shanping Villa was established, with soil parameters calibrated from 16 localized borehole records obtained from engineering geological databases. The analysis examines three critical conditions: normal, heavy rain, and earthquake. The findings indicate that under normal conditions, the factor of safety (FS) is 1.30, which falls short of the official standard threshold of 1.5 for permanent slope structures. Under the heavy rain scenario (with groundwater at the surface), the FS drops drastically to 0.66, representing a critical 49.23% reduction in stability. In the earthquake scenario, incorporating parameters from the 2016 Meinong earthquake, the FS reached 1.01. These results align closely with historical records from Typhoons Morakot and Kaemi, highlighting significant risks to Shanping Villa, Shanping Forest Road, and Highway 27. In conclusion, the drastic rise in the groundwater level is the primary driver of slope failure in this region. The study recommends the prioritized implementation of deep drainage systems, such as drainage galleries, to enhance soil effective stress. Furthermore, establishing a real-time monitoring and early warning system is essential to facilitate mandatory evacuations during extreme rainfall, thereby ensuring public safety and infrastructure resilience.

How to cite: Hsu, H.-H., Deng, X.-X., Chen, Y.-H., Chang, Y.-C., and Chen, Y.-H.: Slope Stability Analysis and Hazard Potential Assessment in Zhongxing Village, Kaohsiung City: Numerical Simulation under Extreme Rainfall and Earthquake Scenarios Using STEDwin, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2417, 2026.

An increase in soil water content (SWC) from rainfall infiltration reduces the matric suction and shear strength; hence, rainfall is a primary trigger of shallow landslides. While accurate SWC monitoring is critical for predicting slope failure, traditional point-based sensors lack the spatial resolution required for effective field-scale assessment. This study aims to bridge this gap by integrating hyperspectral and multispectral imaging technologies with advanced machine learning (ML) models. Based on 114 in-situ soil samples collected from landslide-affected areas across South Korea, correlations between physical soil properties (e.g., void ratio, soil color) and hyperspectral data in the visible and near-infrared (Vis-NIR) regions were analyzed. Two ML algorithms, Random Forest (RF) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), were employed to develop predictive models for SWC. In this study, statistical evaluation indicated that the RF model demonstrated superior accuracy and robustness in handling high-dimensional spectral data compared to the MLP model. To validate the method's applicability for landslide monitoring, field tests were conducted in the mountainous region of Pyeongchang, South Korea, using a multispectral camera mounted on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The RF model successfully predicted the spatial distribution of SWC using spectral reflectance and geotechnical parameters. Although the model showed limitations in extrapolating beyond the training data range, it effectively captured critical variations in soil moisture relevant to slope stability. These results suggest that integrating UAV-based remote sensing with ML offers a promising, non-contact approach for high-resolution monitoring of shallow landslides, contributing to more proactive disaster prevention strategies.

How to cite: Lim, H.-H., Cheon, E., and Lee, S.-R.: UAV-Based Multispectral Assessment of Soil Water Content for Shallow Landslide Monitoring: A Machine Learning Approach, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2879, 2026.

EGU26-2976 | ECS | Posters on site | NH3.3

Beyond Coarse Data: Soil Thickness and Rainfall forLandslide Hazard Modelling 

Paula Cortes, Johnny Vega, Robert Reinecke, and Ugur Ozturk

An increasing population in mountainous regions, where gentle and stable topography is scarce, drives residents to settle on steep slopes. These slopes are particularly prone to shallow landslides, which involve the displacement of the upper soil layers and are more easily triggered by rainfall. Therefore, accurate landslide hazard models are needed to safeguard populations.

These models typically include spatial data, such as soil thickness and rainfall. However, the lack of detailed inputs often means that models operate at coarse scales, which can mask local variability and potentially underestimate hazard levels. To address this gap, our research question is whether simulations of shallow landslides can be improved by enhancing the spatial resolution of two critical variables derived from coarse satellite data: (i) soil thickness determining the volume of material available for sliding, and (ii) rainfall controlling soil saturation and pore-water pressure dynamics.  

To demonstrate the scalability and applicability of the method to other regions prone to landslides, we tested this approach in La Estrella, Colombia, a municipality with a long history of landslides and rapid population growth on steep slopes. For soil thickness, we applied a geomorphological model that relates soil depth to slope angle and distance to the drainage network. We validated the estimates against borehole measurements, finding strong agreement at three of five test sites. For rainfall, we integrated CHIRPS with local rain-gauge data, using spatial interpolation and regression-based downscaling to produce high-resolution rainfall fields. The downscaling model was then evaluated using statistical metrics, including the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), bias, and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE).

In the next step, we will feed these two outputs into a Landlab shallow landslide probability model that couples hydrological response with soil mechanical stability. This will allow us to quantify the influence of input resolution on predicted landslide probability patterns.

How to cite: Cortes, P., Vega, J., Reinecke, R., and Ozturk, U.: Beyond Coarse Data: Soil Thickness and Rainfall forLandslide Hazard Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2976, 2026.

EGU26-3757 | ECS | Orals | NH3.3

Environmental Controls on Post-Little Ice Age Landslide Distribution Around the South Patagonian Icefield 

Gernot Seier, Matěj Slíva, Tomáš Pánek, and Diego Winocur

Understanding landslide (LS) distribution in deglaciated mountains is key to landscape evolution and geohazard risk. We present an orogen-scale assessment of 1,691 Post-Little Ice Age (LIA) LSs (91% shallow) along the South Patagonian Icefield (SPI, 48–52°S) margins. Mapped via high-resolution multitemporal imagery (2010–2025) and multi-operator validated, kernel densities (10 km bandwidth) show clustering in western and southern SPI—central peak, northwest secondary—amid ~20% ice loss (since the end of the LIA) and uplift >40 mm/yr.

Environmental variables from LS/non-LS areas fed Bayesian horseshoe variable selection. Sparse Gaussian process regression (R2=0.96, SPAEF ≥0.85) identified precipitation, fault density, and uplift as dominant controls. Precipitation destabilizes slopes via pore pressures, triggering shallow LSs (positive correlation); fault density signals structural weakness/seismic facilitation; uplift shows complex negative LS correlation, as active deformation/steep slopes favor erosion over accumulation, reducing LS buildup. Lithology, permafrost, retreat rates exert weaker, context-dependent influences. LS versus non-LS distinctions underscore the value of integrating correlation-based and predictive approaches. Coupled climate-deglaciation-tectonics govern landslide distribution in the SPI.

Critically, ~17% of LSs overlap glacial lake upslope areas (30 m buffer), preconditioning glacier lake outburst flood risks at, e.g. Torre Glacier's ~8 Mm³ failure—shallow dominance may temper severity, sea-proximal cases extend threats. Findings illuminate paraglacial responses to glacier retreat, offering predictive hazard frameworks for warming cryosphere.

How to cite: Seier, G., Slíva, M., Pánek, T., and Winocur, D.: Environmental Controls on Post-Little Ice Age Landslide Distribution Around the South Patagonian Icefield, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3757, 2026.

Road construction on hillslopes has increased explosively due to the rapid socioeconomic development in China’s mountainous areas. The exposure of steep and rapidly weathering slopes caused by road construction accelerates slope movements, especially roads building on residual soil. Residual soil slopes are prone to slow movements and may evolve to failure in response to infiltration of rainwater. Engineering works on residual soil (e.g., excavation, filling for buildings and roads) exacerbate these problems through altering the internal and external stress of slopes. Yet our understanding of the interactive effects of rainfall and road construction on slope dynamics or even failure in subtropical residual soils remains elusive. Here, we used three-decadal radar remote sensing data to quantify the time series deformation before a catastrophic slope failure, occurring at Meida Highway in China that caused 52 fatalities. Physics-based decomposition of the time series movements over the past 8 years reveals that there is a constant seasonal movement related to rainfall and a precursory accelerated movement triggered by slope reinforced measures before failure occurrence in May 2024. Emergency mitigations of reinforced measures modified the infiltrates and routes of surface and subsurface water, leading to an adverse impact of reducing slope failure risk. Analysis of numerical simulation indicates that rainfall-induced pore water pressure reduced the shear strength of granite residual soils, ultimately triggering slope failure. This improved understanding of the slope dynamics in response to different forces will be important to avoid economic and life loss, strengthen emergency planning and identify potential risks.

How to cite: Huang, X. and Ma, P.: Satellite images reveal progressive slope deformation triggered by mountainous road construction in subtropical South China, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4787, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4787, 2026.

EGU26-6955 | ECS | Orals | NH3.3

Cormons landslide characterization using Lidar and remote sensed data. 

alessia scalabrini, simone francesco fornasari, and giovanni costa

Landslides are a global phenomenon occurring in several climatic and geomorphologic contexts, generating billions in economic losses and causing thousand of causalities each year. This phenomenon is often characterized as a local problem, but its effect and cost frequently cross local jurisdiction and may become a national problem [1]. Landslides, resulting from disturbance in slope equilibrium induced by the movement of a mass of rock, debris or earth down a slope and pose a significant threat to landscapes, infrastructure and human life [2]. Landslides can be labelled into different categories depending on the type of movement and the type of material involved. They may be triggered by several phenomena; the primary are seismic activities and heavy rainfall. More precisely, rainfall-induced landslides typically occur in regions prone to heavy precipitation, with steep slopes and poorly consolidated soil or rock [2]. In Italy, the most recent case study, is the Cormons (Gorizia, Italy) landslide occurred on November 17th 2025. Here, intense rainfalls caused a mud-flow inducing the collapse of several buildings and two casualties. In this area, landslides are the most frequent type of instability. These are mostly small and medium-sized landslides, located on flyschoid hills, affecting vineyards and only locally affecting roads and rural settlements [3]. Identifying these phenomena through satellite-based remote sensing techniques offers essential data and insight for landslide studies. Information regarding timing, location and spatial extent of detected landslides, along with changes in surface materials, plays a key role in risk and susceptibility assessments as well as in effective disaster management, monitoring and response activities. For the purpose of this work, optical satellite images provided by Sentinel-2, together with the Lidar provided by the Italian Civil Defense have been used with the aim to identifying the Cormons landslide and its characteristics in terms of dimensions, shape and amount of material moved during the event. The use of optical imagery from Sentinel-2 it’s been used to evaluate spectral indices like Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and Bare Soil Index (BSI). Instead Lidar and DEM have been used to define the ground changes in terms of elevation and also the amount of material involved in the event. From the GIS analysis, the results confirm the presence of a mudflow within a watershed located in the Cormons area. Additionally, from the Lidar other small collapse features have been highlighted in the surrounding area.

 

REFERENCES:

  • Highland, L. M., & Bobrowsky, P. (2008). The landslide handbook-A guide to understanding landslides(No. 1325). US Geological Survey.
  • Peters, S., Liu, J., Keppel, G., Wendleder, A., & Xu, P. (2024). Detecting coseismic landslides in GEE using machine learning algorithms on combined optical and radar imagery. Remote Sensing16(10), 1722.
  • https://www.isprambiente.gov.it/files/pubblicazioni/rapporti/rapporto-frane-2007/Capitolo_11_Friuli_Venezia_Giulia.pdf

 

How to cite: scalabrini, A., fornasari, S. F., and costa, G.: Cormons landslide characterization using Lidar and remote sensed data., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6955, 2026.

EGU26-7148 | ECS | Orals | NH3.3

Automated quasi-3D reconstruction of landslide slip surfaces using UAV-derived surface displacement 

Shigeru Ogita, Shoutarou Sanuki, Kazunori Hayashi, Keita Itou, Shinro Abe, Dang Dai Nam Nguyen, and Ching-Ying Tsou

Rapid and safe identification of slip-surface geometry is essential for efficient landslide investigation and mitigation. Conventional approaches to slip-surface determination rely primarily on borehole surveys and in situ instrumentation; however, these methods require long investigation periods and substantial labor.

In this study, we propose a new method that automates slip-surface reconstruction using high-density ground-surface displacement vectors derived from multi-temporal topographic data collected by a laser-equipped UAV at two landslides developed in Neogene formations in northeastern Japan. The analysis estimates two-dimensional slip-surface profiles along multiple cross sections (following Ogita et al., 2024), which are subsequently integrated to construct a quasi–three-dimensional slip-surface geometry. For validation, the landslide moving mass volumes estimated using the proposed method were compared with those identified from dense borehole data. The results show agreement rates of 87% and 96%, respectively. These findings demonstrate that the proposed method achieves sufficient accuracy for practical application in future landslide mitigation planning.

 

References:

OGITA, S., HAYASHI, K., ABE, S., TSOU, C.-Y. (2024): Estimation of slip surface geometry from vectors of ground surface displacement using airborne laser data : case studies of the Jimba and Tozawa landslides in Akita Prefecture, Journal of the Japan Landslide Society, 61(4) 123-129 (in Japanese with English abstract).

How to cite: Ogita, S., Sanuki, S., Hayashi, K., Itou, K., Abe, S., Nguyen, D. D. N., and Tsou, C.-Y.: Automated quasi-3D reconstruction of landslide slip surfaces using UAV-derived surface displacement, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7148, 2026.

EGU26-9556 | Orals | NH3.3

Framework for early detection and characterisation of hydraulically induced shallow landslides 

Mateja Jemec Auflič, Matej Maček, Jasna Smolar, Karin Kure, Tina Peternel, Helena Grčman, Rok Turniški, Marko Zupan, Vesna Zupanc, Luka Žvokelj, and Boštjan Pulko

Shallow landslides triggered by intense and prolonged precipitation represent a major geohazard in many soil-dominated landscapes. This study presents the development of an integrated monitoring and modelling framework for the early detection and characterisation of hydraulically induced shallow landslides. The approach is based on the selection of three representative pilot sites and the implementation of comprehensive field investigations (engineering-geological, pedological, geotechnical, hydrological) and laboratory testing to determine the chemical, physical, and mechanical properties of characteristic soil horizons. A real-time monitoring system has been established to continuously record  soil volumetric water content and suction, together with precipitation, providing high-resolution hydro-meteorological and hydrological data. Geoelectrical measurements and field investigations were applied to characterise soil structure and depth, and to establish relationships between geophysical parameters and physico-mechanical soil properties. These analyses enable the development of a non-invasive monitoring approach capable of diagnosing landslide initiation, delineating landslide geometry, and estimating potentially unstable volumes. Based on the monitoring data obtained at pilot sites, hydro-meteorological thresholds and critical soil parameters controlling shallow landslide occurrence are derived for key soil types. Safety factors and probabilistic landslide occurrence models are developed to identify dominant triggering mechanisms. The results contribute to a national-scale framework for shallow landslide susceptibility mapping and provide a transferable methodology for operational landslide early-warning systems. This research is supported by the Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency through research projects: A holistic approach to Earth surface processes driven by extreme weather events (J7-60124) and Geospatial information technologies for a resilient and sustainable society (GC-0006).

How to cite: Jemec Auflič, M., Maček, M., Smolar, J., Kure, K., Peternel, T., Grčman, H., Turniški, R., Zupan, M., Zupanc, V., Žvokelj, L., and Pulko, B.: Framework for early detection and characterisation of hydraulically induced shallow landslides, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9556, 2026.

EGU26-10241 | Posters on site | NH3.3

Multi-instrument geophysical monitoring of a km-scale slow-moving landslide in Nepal: Technical insights and preliminary results 

Maxime Jaspard, Jérôme Lave, Bhairab Sitaula, Julien Barrière, Ananta Gajurel, and Tanka Paudel and the Team Slide

Himalayan slopes are highly exposed to landslides, primarily triggered by earthquakes and monsoon precipitation. Satellite methods offer unrivalled spatial coverage of surface displacements on a weekly scale. However, they do not directly provide details of deformation at depth, nor do they offer sufficient temporal resolution to elucidate the continuity or intermittent nature of the landslide deformation during phases of heavy rainfall, strong rise in the water table or during intermediate seismic shaking. To address these issues in the context of the ANR/FNR project "SLIDE", we have recently deployed in late October 2025 a geophysical network at the level of one active, km-scale cultivated landslide in Nepal consisting in 16 co-located seismic and GNSS stations and one metereological station.

In this presentation, we will present the practical aspects of deploying and maintaining these instruments in remote Himalayan terrain. Each system required specific installation techniques and careful site selection to ensure stable measurements and long-term performance. Field operations were challenged by difficult access, variable road conditions, limited power availability, and unpredictable weather. Beyond technical challenges, community engagement is essential and close collaboration with local residents guided several site choices. We will also show the preliminary analysis of seismic, GNSS and meteorological data over the first 6 months of operation, which will be applied in the next three years to derive temporal and spatial changes of the landslide properties.

How to cite: Jaspard, M., Lave, J., Sitaula, B., Barrière, J., Gajurel, A., and Paudel, T. and the Team Slide: Multi-instrument geophysical monitoring of a km-scale slow-moving landslide in Nepal: Technical insights and preliminary results, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10241, 2026.

EGU26-10608 | Orals | NH3.3

Deep Learning-Based Assessment of Slope Creep Vulnerability Using Geophysical Survey Data 

Taeho Bong, Jihun Jeon, Eunsoo Jeong, Sieun Lee, Joon Heo, and Jungil Seo

Slope creep refers to the imperceptibly slow and gradual downslope movement of soil and rock driven by gravity. It is mainly driven by moisture-induced expansion of clay-rich materials and the resulting decrease in shear strength. Although subsurface conditions can influence slope creep vulnerability, identifying their effects remains challenging. In recent years, electrical resistivity and seismic surveys have been widely used to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of subsurface soil properties. These geophysical methods provide a non-destructive means of investigating subsurface physical characteristics. In this study, electrical resistivity and seismic surveys were conducted to assess slope creep vulnerability associated with subsurface conditions. Geophysical survey data were obtained from 124 slope sites, and their slope creep vulnerability was classified into two groups (low and high) based on field investigations. Cross-plot analysis was applied to integrate electrical resistivity and seismic velocity, and the resulting data points were classified into four quadrants according to threshold values of seismic velocity and electrical resistivity. The threshold values were statistically determined using a t-test. The composition ratios of the four quadrants were used as input variables for deep learning training, and the bedrock proportion based on seismic velocity included as an additional input. As a result, a total of five input variables were used, and deep learning training was performed by classifying slope creep vulnerability into two groups. As a result, a total of five input variables were used to train a deep learning model for classification of slope creep vulnerability into two groups. Due to the limited dataset size, five-fold cross-validation was applied for model evaluation. As a result, the deep learning model achieved an accuracy of 81.5% and a recall of 83.0% in classifying slope creep vulnerability, indicating its effectiveness in identifying slope creep–prone areas.

 

Acknowledgments: This study was carried out with the support of ´R&D Program for Forest Science Technology (RS-2025-02213490)´ provided by Korea Forest Service (Korea Forestry Promotion Institute).

 

How to cite: Bong, T., Jeon, J., Jeong, E., Lee, S., Heo, J., and Seo, J.: Deep Learning-Based Assessment of Slope Creep Vulnerability Using Geophysical Survey Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10608, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10608, 2026.

Under the combined effects of Tibetan Plateau uplift and global climate warming, the transition zone between the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and the Loess Plateau has become one of the most landslide-prone regions worldwide. Intense tectonics, abundant material supply, and densely developed faults produce landslides with large volumes, multi-stage evolution, and complex failure mechanisms, posing severe threats to infrastructure and human safety. However, progressive deformation processes and multi-scale controls remain poorly understood.

This study investigates the Lade–Lijiaxia landslide using an integrated “space–air–ground–subsurface” framework. Field investigations, systematic mapping of cracks and rupture surfaces, high-resolution remote sensing, SBAS-InSAR monitoring (140 SAR images), XRD mineralogical analysis, and SEM observations are combined to elucidate the landslide’s structural features, time-dependent deformation, and material basis.

Results indicate: (1) The landslide’s spatial distribution, boundaries, and internal structure are strongly controlled by regional tectonics. It develops along tectonically weakened zones, with the main sliding direction aligned with dominant lineaments. The landslide comprises a distinct sliding block and a creeping block (~1.5 × 10⁸ m³), representing a tectonically controlled progressive failure mode; (2) Crack and rupture surface analysis shows dominant crack orientations of ~30° and 125°, and rupture dip directions of 130°, 310°, and 20°, reflecting rear scarp tension, internal creep, and sliding surface geometry; (3) SBAS-InSAR indicates slow deformation, with the creeping block reaching ~170 mm/yr, accelerating seasonally during summer–autumn and warm spring due to rainfall and freeze–thaw cycles; (4) XRD reveals vertical heterogeneity: clay content is ~22% in the upper Quaternary deposits and ~38% in underlying Miocene mudstone, dominated by illite. SEM shows localized clay enrichment, fragmented microstructures, and well-developed pores, providing microstructural evidence for long-term creep and strength reduction.

Overall, long-term deformation is primarily controlled by deep-seated tectonics and lithology, while shallow deformation is triggered by seasonal hydrothermal processes. These results improve understanding of progressive failure and creep evolution of large landslides at the northeastern Tibetan Plateau margin and provide insights for hazard assessment and long-term monitoring in the plateau–loess transition zone.

Map of Location Study Area

Geological Map of Study Area

How to cite: Jingqi, Z. and Genhou, W.: Deformation Characteristics and Mechanisms of a Large Landslide at the Northeastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau Based on Multi-source Data Integration: A Case Study of the Lade–Lijiaxia Landslide, Qinghai Province, China, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11055, 2026.

EGU26-11274 | ECS | Orals | NH3.3

Exploring the stability of shallow landslides through global sensitivity analysis: a proof of concept from western Rwanda 

Martina Zanetti, Alberto Armigliato, Cesare Angeli, Filippo Zaniboni, Sylvain Barayagwiza, and Catherine Meriaux

Shallow landslides represent a major hazard in western Rwanda, where steep slopes, deeply weathered materials and intense precipitation frequently interact. This study, carried out in the framework of the WALL project (Grant ID: GCRW-CL001, https://www.wallatrwanda.org/), focuses on a landslide-prone area within the Karongi District and presents a proof-of-concept analysis aimed at investigating the sensitivity of slope stability to key geotechnical and pore pressure–related parameters.

Slope stability is analysed using Scoops 3D (Reid et al., 2015), which implements three-dimensional limit-equilibrium methods (LEM) and evaluates slope stability by testing a large number of potential spherical trial failure surfaces. This approach allows for a systematic exploration of potential instability mechanisms while maintaining a computationally efficient framework suitable for regional-scale and data-scarce applications. Due to the limited availability of site-specific geotechnical data, model parameters are defined within plausible ranges derived from published literature and regional information.

Under these conditions, a global sensitivity analysis based on Sobol indices (Saltelli and Sobol, 1995) represents a suitable and robust strategy to investigate model behaviour and uncertainty. The Sobol analysis is applied to investigate the influence of key geotechnical parameters, including cohesion, internal friction angle and unit weight, and additional pore pressure accounting for hydrological conditions on slope stability results. Both first-order effects and higher-order interaction terms are analysed, providing insights into the combined mechanical and hydraulic controls on slope stability.

The proposed workflow identifies the dominant sources of variability on the output and offers a structured basis for prioritizing the quantification of geotechnical parameters in future data acquisition and model refinement, also in connection with specific triggering factors relevant for the studied area, such as rainfall.

 

 

REFERENCES

Reid, M. E., Christian, S. B., Brien, D. L., & Henderson, S. T. (2015). Scoops3D: software to analyze 3D slope stability throughout a digital landscape (No. 14-A1). US Geological Survey.

Saltelli, A., Sobol’, I. M. (1995). Sensitivity analysis for nonlinear mathematical models: numerical experience. Matematicheskoe Modelirovanie, 7(11), 16–28.

How to cite: Zanetti, M., Armigliato, A., Angeli, C., Zaniboni, F., Barayagwiza, S., and Meriaux, C.: Exploring the stability of shallow landslides through global sensitivity analysis: a proof of concept from western Rwanda, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11274, 2026.

EGU26-13251 | ECS | Posters on site | NH3.3

Multi-methodology characterisation  of low energy landslide : Example of Blamécourt (Vexin region, France) 

Gautier Vandecapelle, Philippe Robion, Raphael Antoine, Pauline Souloumiac, Cecile Finco, Frederic Lacquement, Pascale Leturmy, Francois Betard, and Dominique Frizon-de-Lamotte

Landslides are commonly investigated in mountainous regions characterized by steep slopes. In contrast, the low-plateau region of the French Vexin (Paris Basin) is shaped by slopes resulting from  ancient low-energy mass movements. The objective of this study is to describe the geometry and outcrops of an ancient landslide in order to obtain data to geologically characterize its dynamics and processes. In the French Vexin area, valleys are incised into a limestone plateau whose multilayered stratigraphy - comprising coarse limestone, fine sand and clay - controls the water table position. This water table can induce  seepage erosion within the sand layers  beneath  the limestone layers and can be considered as a predisposing factor. This leads to their fragmentation (rotational blocks) and/or their progressive dipping (i.e. cambering) towards the valley bottoms to adapt to the topography subjected to gravitational constraints. 

Recent studies conducted in a similar geological setting in the Champagne vineyards in France have improved our understanding of the links between these mass movements, substrate properties and hydrogeological conditions. However, the French Vexin region exhibits distinctive characteristics: the upper limestone layer is particularly thick and densely fractured, resulting in slope shapes that have never been studied before. 

A representative site in Blamécourt (Magny-en-Vexin, Val d’Oise) was investigated to develop methodology for characterizing slope processes and their geological context. The area includes  three disused quarries, multiple outcrops and a complex morphology. Field observations, high-resolution LiDAR, GIS mapping and electrical geophysical data were combined to analyse this complex landslide. Detailed morphological studies and characterization of geological structures in quarries beneath the plateau have revealed the state of the rock without the influence of the valley. The limestone blocks are fractured in two directions of tectonic origin, corresponding to the regional structural directions. From the plateau edge, a third structural trend aligned with the valley orientation is observed. These three structural directions persist downslope to the base of the slope, as confirmed by field observations and structural analysis. The limestone blocks covering the slope have therefore been affected by gravitational movements, whose structural boundaries result from the combined influence of inherited faults and newly formed structures.

How to cite: Vandecapelle, G., Robion, P., Antoine, R., Souloumiac, P., Finco, C., Lacquement, F., Leturmy, P., Betard, F., and Frizon-de-Lamotte, D.: Multi-methodology characterisation  of low energy landslide : Example of Blamécourt (Vexin region, France), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13251, 2026.

EGU26-13476 | ECS | Posters on site | NH3.3

Hydrological links between shallow and deep zones in a flysch landslide revealed by repeated FDEM surveys and 3D AMT imaging 

Szymon Oryński, Artur Marciniak, Sebastian Kowalczyk, Adrian Flores-Orozco, and Mariusz Majdański

The interplay between internal structure, deformation mechanisms, and subsurface hydrogeological processes controls the long-term stability of large landslides. A key unresolved issue is whether infiltrating groundwater is confined to the landslide body or can migrate into the underlying bedrock along deep-seated structural discontinuities. This problem is particularly relevant in areas underlain by steeply dipping flysch formations, where structural anisotropy may promote vertical groundwater connectivity and influence landslide reactivation. This study focuses on the Cisiec landslide in the Żywiec district of southern Poland, aiming to identify groundwater percolation pathways and their relationship to slope deformation. The landslide affects a ski slope located in a forest–meadow transition zone and moves predominantly east–northeast, with an elevation difference of approximately 100 m. Previous monitoring indicated complex kinematics but did not resolve the depth extent of groundwater infiltration or its coupling with deep geological structures.

We apply an integrated electromagnetic approach explicitly designed to resolve processes across complementary depth ranges. Shallow groundwater dynamics were monitored using time-lapse Frequency Domain Electromagnetics (FDEM), which is sensitive to depths of approximately 0–3 m and was repeated over a three-year interval. FDEM conductivity variations were used to map spatial and temporal patterns of near-surface water percolation within the landslide body. In addition, the in-phase component of the FDEM signal was exploited to detect positional changes of buried infrastructure on the ski slope. When combined with high-precision Differential GPS (DGPS) measurements, these data provided quantitative constraints on surface displacement and landslide activity. To resolve the intermediate-depth range and provide robust constraints for deep imaging, Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) was conducted along five profiles across the landslide. The resulting resistivity sections, which image the subsurface to approximately 30 m depth, were incorporated as a priori resistivity constraints and starting models for the inversion of Audio-Magnetotelluric (AMT) data. This constrained inversion strategy significantly reduced ambiguity in the AMT results and ensured consistency between shallow, intermediate, and deep resistivity structures.

AMT imaging extended the investigation below 30 m depth and enabled the construction of a three-dimensional resistivity anomaly model of the landslide and its geological basement. The model reveals pronounced, near-vertical resistivity structures associated with the Carpathian flysch beneath the landslide, interpreted as preferential pathways for deep groundwater migration. The integrated interpretation of FDEM, ERT, and AMT data indicates that infiltrating groundwater is not restricted to the landslide mass but can penetrate into the bedrock along steeply oriented discontinuities. This hydrogeological connectivity between shallow infiltration zones and deep structural features provides a plausible mechanism for delayed landslide reactivation and long-term slope instability. The study highlights the importance of multi-scale, constraint-driven electromagnetic imaging for improving hazard-relevant conceptual models of complex landslide systems.

How to cite: Oryński, S., Marciniak, A., Kowalczyk, S., Flores-Orozco, A., and Majdański, M.: Hydrological links between shallow and deep zones in a flysch landslide revealed by repeated FDEM surveys and 3D AMT imaging, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13476, 2026.

EGU26-14001 | Posters on site | NH3.3

The 3-D anatomy of the Cuolm da Vi slope instability 

Cedric Schmelzbach, Tjeerd Kiers, Nils Chudalla, Florian Amann, and Yves Bonanomi

Cuolm da Vi (CdV) is a deep-seated gravitational slope deformation in central Switzerland with an estimated unstable volume of around 150 million m3. In the central part, surface displacement rates are on the order of 10 to 20 cm/yr. The ongoing south-westward deformation, which is dominated by toppling, is expressed by scarps, graben-like structures, tension cracks, and local instabilities. These landforms suggest gravitational movement guided by inherited tectonic structures. Despite detailed geomorphological mapping, geological-geotechnical investigations, and more than two decades of surface-displacement monitoring, fundamental uncertainties remain regarding, for example, the maximum depth of the unstable mass and the internal deformation processes.

Here, we integrate multiple geophysical and geological constraints into a 3-D structural model of the instability. To establish the model, we combined a 3-D P-wave velocity volume from first-arrival travel-time tomography, microseismicity detected during five months of continuous distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) monitoring, and distributed strain sensing (DSS) observations from around two years of periodic measurements, together with detailed mapping of tectonic features and available geotechnical information. We feed the geophysical and geological data into a 3-D structural and probabilistic geological modelling framework to establish a complex model of the structural features of CdV. The model covers about 1 km² at the surface and extends to a few hundred meters depth.

Low P-wave velocities (Vp < 2000 m/s) spatially coincide with mapped unstable terrain, indicating that velocity variations can help delineating comparatively intact versus more fractured/damaged rock volumes. Based on the geometry of the low-velocity domain, the maximum depth of the unstable mass in the central part is estimated at about 180-200 m. Microseismicity is concentrated within low-velocity regions and clusters near mapped tectonic features, consistent with deformation localized on key planar discontinuities. Key tectonic features are also associated with distinct DSS strain events. The resulting 3-D “static” model provides a quantitative framework for future analyses of temporal changes in microseismicity, with direct relevance for process understanding and the continued development of early-warning strategies at CdV.

How to cite: Schmelzbach, C., Kiers, T., Chudalla, N., Amann, F., and Bonanomi, Y.: The 3-D anatomy of the Cuolm da Vi slope instability, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14001, 2026.

EGU26-14514 | ECS | Orals | NH3.3

From Sliding to Flowing: Integrating Geotechnical, Mineralogical, and Rheological Controls on Earthflow Mobility 

Mariagiulia Annibali Corona, Domenico Calcaterra, Nicola Antonio Di Spirito, Francesco Izzo, Alessio Langella, Mariano Mercurio, Rossana Pasquino, Giacomo Russo, Enza Vitale, and Luigi Guerriero

Earthflows are flow-like landslides involving fine-grained, clay-rich materials that exhibit complex kinematics, long-term activity, and alternating phases of slow movement and sudden acceleration. Although their flow-like behaviour is commonly attributed to distributed internal deformation and plastic rheology, the mechanisms governing the transition from solid-like sliding to fluid-like flowing remain poorly understood, particularly with respect to boundary conditions and material properties. This transition is critical, as it may lead to surging events associated with high mobility and significant hazard.
This study investigates the role of mineralogical, geotechnical, rheological, and geomorphological factors in controlling earthflow mobility and material fluidization. A set of representative earthflows located in the southern Apennines was selected, covering a wide range of geological settings and morphological characteristics. Laboratory analyses were conducted on samples collected from different sectors of the landslides, including grain size distribution, Atterberg limits, mechanical behaviour, quantitative mineralogical composition. Moreover, rheometrical analysis of the fine fractions under controlled shear conditions were also performed. These data were integrated with long-term geomorphological analyses based on satellite imagery and morphometric reconstructions of landslide geometry.
Earthflow behaviour was analysed using a one-dimensional framework based on a Herschel–Bulkley viscoplastic rheological model, aimed at reproducing internal kinematic compartmentalisation in relation to variable water content.
The influence of water content variations, as a function of rainfall-induced infiltration conditions, on rheological parameters and mechanical response was investigated. The results highlight strong correlations between plasticity, occurrence of expandable clay minerals, rheology, and mobility, emphasizing the key role of fine-grained materials in promoting solid–fluid transitions. 
By integrating multi disciplinary datasets, this work advances the understanding and prediction of earthflow fluidization and mobility-processes for which current forecasting capabilities remain notably limited.

How to cite: Annibali Corona, M., Calcaterra, D., Di Spirito, N. A., Izzo, F., Langella, A., Mercurio, M., Pasquino, R., Russo, G., Vitale, E., and Guerriero, L.: From Sliding to Flowing: Integrating Geotechnical, Mineralogical, and Rheological Controls on Earthflow Mobility, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14514, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14514, 2026.

EGU26-14669 | ECS | Orals | NH3.3

Experimental constraints on the slip response of a slow-moving landslide to rainfall driven pore pressure changes 

Kaitlin Schaible, Demian Saffer, and Noah Finnegan

Landslide motion spans a continuum from slow, steady creep to rapid catastrophic failure. However, the mechanisms controlling the timing, rate, and nature of sliding, the sensitivity of motion to perturbations driven by precipitation or human activity, and potential transitions from creep to catastrophic failure all remain poorly understood. The response of landslide basal shear zones to rainfall-driven changes in pore pressure and thus effective stress can be interpreted using rate and state friction, a framework that describes the constitutive behavior and sliding stability of frictional shear zones, and is widely applied to earthquake mechanics. Laboratory experiments provide direct constraints on these frictional properties, and thus hold the potential to illuminate the material properties and conditions that control basal slip. We investigate the frictional behavior of Oak Ridge earthflow, a slow-moving landslide in the Coast Ranges of central California hosted within a clay-rich mélange. We conduct a suite of direct shear experiments to characterize its frictional rheology, including both (1) the velocity dependence of friction measured from velocity step tests; and (2) frictional healing, or time-dependent restrengthening between slip events, measured via slide-hold-slide tests. Experiments are conducted across a range of normal stresses approximating the in-situ conditions of the active shear plane (0.3 – 2 MPa) and at sliding velocities that span the range of observed landslide creep (0.001 – 30 𝜇m/s).

The shear plane material exhibits uniformly velocity strengthening behavior, characterized by a positive rate parameter (a-b), indicating that friction increases with increased slip rate, and is consistent with stable sliding. The values of (a-b) from laboratory experiments ranges from 0.001 – 0.015, in agreement with values inferred from coupled field observations of slide motion and pore pressure. Our results suggest that velocity strengthening friction, combined with modulation of effective stress through pore pressure, can generate slip transients, providing a direct mechanistic link between laboratory scale behavior and field observations of landslide motion.

We also find that the clay rich materials entrained along the base of the slide exhibit little to no healing (𝛽 ≈ 0). Near zero healing implies that the slide does not restrengthen during extended periods of low water pressure during the dry California summer. In the absence of healing, slip velocity responds directly and immediately to changes in pore pressure, independent of the duration of dry periods. Taken together, velocity strengthening friction and little to no healing are consistent with the persistent creep observed in the field, where the slip rate is governed by the stress state, pore pressure, and rate dependence of friction. Notably, Oak Ridge earthflow has been active since at least the 1930’s (the date of first air photos). The laboratory derived frictional rheology provides a quantitative framework to explain the observed landslide slip response to changes in pore pressure and suggests that friction laws can be used not only to interpret past slide behavior, but potentially to predict landslide responses to future climate-driven hydrologic forcing or other external perturbations.

How to cite: Schaible, K., Saffer, D., and Finnegan, N.: Experimental constraints on the slip response of a slow-moving landslide to rainfall driven pore pressure changes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14669, 2026.

Relative seismic velocity changes (dv/v) derived from ambient noise interferometry serve as a proxy for the internal rigidity or structural health of landslide materials. Strong ground motion often induces coseismic velocity drops, indicating damage within the shallow crust or the landslide body. This study focuses on the deep-seated, slow-moving Wuhe landslide in eastern Taiwan, which exhibits stable creeping with daily displacement rates ranging from 4 mm to 25 mm(Weng et al., 2025), to investigate its response to the September 2022 earthquake sequence, specifically the ML 6.6 Guanshan and ML 6.8 Chihshang earthquakes.To monitor temporal variations in the landslide's internal state, we applied the single-station cross-component (SC) technique to the Wuhe landslide using continuous ambient noise records. The seismic monitoring network comprises one geophone installed directly on the sliding mass and three reference stations located on stable bedrock outside the landslide area. This configuration aims to differentiate between landslide-specific structural changes and regional reference variations. The preliminary results showed that a clear seismic velocity reduction was found spatially within the landslide area. Through dv/v measurements with in-situ real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS data and strong-motion records, the coseismic velocity drops are in response to the accelerating surface displacement and strong ground shaking, and the spatial relationships between dv/v, surface movement and peak-ground acceleration (PGA) are systematically compared . In fact, the earthquake did not trigger catastrophic landsliding at the Wuhe site, Thus, we further investigate the recovery of landslide material properties following strong ground shaking. The post-seismic recovery duration captured by dv/v observations can help us to better understanding recovery mechanism of landslide material after earthquakes.

How to cite: Weng, H.-K. and Chao, W.-A.: Coseismic Seismic Velocity Variations of a Deep-Seated Landslide Caused by Two M6.5+ Earthquakes in Eastern Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15810, 2026.

EGU26-16829 | Orals | NH3.3

Linking Hydrological Forcing to Seismic Sensitivity in an Unsaturated Slope Using Physics-Based Modelling 

Thomas Dylan Mikesell, Emma Brennvall Lorentzen, Luca Piciullo, and Mathilde Bøttger Sørensen

With intensifying precipitation events, landslides pose increasing environmental hazards. Unsaturated slopes are key monitoring targets due to their rapid, and sometimes severe, response to rainfall. This study investigates how hydrological changes in an unsaturated slope in Eidsvoll (Norway) influence seismic velocities through time and space using a physics-based modelling framework. Vertical effective stress and density fields from hydromechanical simulations in GeoStudio are used as inputs to the Biot-Gassmann relationship to estimate time-varying P- and S-wave velocities. These velocities are used to compute Rayleigh wave phase velocity dispersion curves and sensitivity kernels for selected days throughout a 250-day (September 2019-May 2020) simulation period. The results reveal a strong coupling between infiltration, effective stress, and seismic velocities, especially in the upper part of the unsaturated slope. Rayliegh wave sensitivity is highly frequency- and depth- dependent: high frequencies (above 60 Hz) are sensitive to near-surface changes, while lower frequencies probe deeper layers. A persistent blind zone in an intermediate high-velocity layer limits the surface waves sensitivity to certain depths, underscoring the importance of survey design and the usefulness of surface waves depending on the geologic scenario. This forward modelling approach enables identification of optimal frequency ranges and target depths, providing critical input for future field investigations. These findings contribute to the development of focused site-specific seismic monitoring strategies, including passive surveys using anthropogenic noise sources or active source MASW. By bridging hydromechanical modelling and the associated seismic response using slope-scale physical processes, this approach can support early warning systems and landslide hazard assessment under changing climate conditions.

How to cite: Mikesell, T. D., Lorentzen, E. B., Piciullo, L., and Sørensen, M. B.: Linking Hydrological Forcing to Seismic Sensitivity in an Unsaturated Slope Using Physics-Based Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16829, 2026.

EGU26-17167 | ECS | Posters on site | NH3.3

Unveiling the role of seepage forces in the acceleration of frictional creep in fluid-saturated shear zone 

Fabian Barras, Andreas Aspaas, Einat Aharonov, and François Renard

How fluid impact frictional slip is a central question in various geological settings, from tectonic faults to friction at the base of glaciers. In this work, we study the impact of fluid infiltration on the creep dynamics of the shear zone located at the base of a densely monitored landslide in Western Norway. In Åknes, approximately 50 million cubic meter of rock mass continuously creeps over a shear zone made of rock fragments, with seasonal accelerations that strongly correlate with rainfall. In this natural laboratory for fluid-induced frictional creep, unprecedented monitoring equipment reveals low fluid pressure across the shear zone, thereby challenging the conventional theory of fluid-driven instability in landslides. Here, we show that a generic micromechanical model can disentangle the effects of fluid flow from those of fluid pressure, and demonstrate that seepage forces applied by channelized flow along the shear zone are the main driver of creep accelerations. We conclude by discussing the significance of seepage forces, the implications for hazard mitigation and the broader applicability of our model to various geological contexts governed by friction across saturated shear zones.

How to cite: Barras, F., Aspaas, A., Aharonov, E., and Renard, F.: Unveiling the role of seepage forces in the acceleration of frictional creep in fluid-saturated shear zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17167, 2026.

EGU26-17252 | Posters on site | NH3.3

Rapid estimation of block volumes from seismic noise measurements and an eigenfrequency abacus  

Veronica Pazzi, Simone Francesco Fornasari, Stefano Devoto, Giovanni Costa, and Emanuele Forte

Estimating the volume of potentially unstable rock masses is a critical yet challenging task in landslide characterization. Traditional methods often struggle to accurately define the height and actual separation of rock blocks because of the hidden nature of fracture persistence. In engineering geology and geophysics, natural frequency (f0) refers to the fundamental modes of vibration of materials, rock masses, soil layers, entire slopes, as well as different man-made structures. A variety of studies have explored the natural frequency and resonance phenomena across contexts using both experimental and numerical approaches.

This work is based on the principle that specific peaks in the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral ratio (H/V) curves of rock blocks are linked to their eigenfrequencies rather than stratigraphic resonance proposes. These frequencies are characterized by strong polarization and linearity normal to the fracture network. Thus, the frequency (fHV) estimated from H/V measurements, is considered a good approximation/estimator of f0 (the block eigenfrequency) and an innovative approach to estimate block volumes from an abacus is proposed. The eigenfrequency-volume abacus was build using Finite Element Method (FEM) simulations. Rock blocks were modelled as rectangular cuboids with fixed boundary conditions at the base, similar to an Euler–Bernoulli cantilever. The simulations integrated site-specific mechanical parameters (Young’s modulus, density, and Poisson’s ratio) consistent with a S-wave velocity of approximately 850 m/s.

The procedure was validated using seismic noise datasets from two test sites on Malta Island (Anchor Bay and Il-Qarraba), where independent volume data from UAV-Digital Photogrammetry and satellite imagery were available. The proposed six-step workflow - ranging from data acquisition to the integration into the abacus of fHV with independent surface area (A) measurements - provides a reliable approximation of the volume's order of magnitude, even with errors in frequency selection.

A key advantage of this method is the ability to use easily obtainable seismic noise data to infer structural properties. Furthermore, discrepancies between abacus-derived volumes (Vest) and field-calculated volumes (Vcalc) can serve as indicators of fracture persistence: Vest < Vcalc suggests fractures are less persistent than they appear, while Vest > Vcalc indicates higher isolation from the rock mass. While the current abacus is site-specific, the methodology is adaptable to different geological backgrounds. This tool represents a significant step forward for rapid, non-invasive rockfall hazard assessment and the characterization of block-release susceptibility.

How to cite: Pazzi, V., Fornasari, S. F., Devoto, S., Costa, G., and Forte, E.: Rapid estimation of block volumes from seismic noise measurements and an eigenfrequency abacus , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17252, 2026.

EGU26-17460 | ECS | Orals | NH3.3

3D structure and deformation evolution of a large deep-seated toppling revealed by GMM-based multi-source geophysical integration 

Hui Wang, Xiangjun Pei, Zhanjun Quan, Shenghua Cui, Shiping Xing, and Yu Wang

Exploring the internal structure of large landslides is crucial for understanding their deformation mechanisms and conducting stability assessments. However, traditional exploration methods, such as drilling, provide only localized information and fail to reflect the spatial continuity of subsurface structures. Single geophysical methods also face challenges in accurately characterizing deep-seated structures due to inversion non-uniqueness and interpretative ambiguity. Multi-source geophysical data fusion is considered an important approach to reduce ambiguity and improve modeling reliability, but existing research largely focuses on shallow landslides, lacking effective methods for the three-dimensional reconstruction of large deep-seated rock landslides. Taking the Tizicao deep-seated toppling on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau as an example, this study proposes a multi-source geophysical data fusion modeling method based on the Gaussian mixture model (GMM). This method comprehensively utilizes electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), multi-channel surface wave exploration (MASW), the horizontal and vertical spectral ratio method (HVSR) for ambient noise, and UAV photogrammetry to achieve the fusion and classification of multiple parameters such as resistivity, shear wave velocity, and structural depth. By automatically partitioning the geophysical feature space using GMM, a three-dimensional model of the Tizicao toppling is constructed. The three-dimensional model is highly consistent with the borehole results, verifying the reliability of the fusion modeling method. In addition, the deep-seated structure revealed by the three-dimensional model plays a key controlling role in the initiation of slope instability. Overall, the proposed GMM-based multi-source geophysical fusion method not only enables accurate reconstruction of the internal structure of large deep-seated rock landslides but also provides a new technical pathway for mechanism analysis and hazard prediction of large deep-seated landslides.

Keywords: Deep-seated toppling; Multi-source geophysical integration; Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM); 3D structural modeling; Deformation evolution.

How to cite: Wang, H., Pei, X., Quan, Z., Cui, S., Xing, S., and Wang, Y.: 3D structure and deformation evolution of a large deep-seated toppling revealed by GMM-based multi-source geophysical integration, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17460, 2026.

Global warming has accelerated glacier retreat and permafrost degradation in high-elevation regions, significantly increasing the frequency and magnitude of glacier-related debris flows. This study focuses on Tianmogou, a debris-flow-prone catchment on the Tibetan Plateau, where three broadband seismometers were deployed for continuous monitoring during the active period. Using ambient noise interferometry, relative seismic velocity changes (dv/v) and the effective decorrelation coefficient (dCe) were calculated to achieve high-resolution characterization of the temporal evolution of subsurface mechanical properties.

The results show that dv/v exhibits pronounced seasonal variations and is significantly negatively correlated with soil temperature, while short-term hydrological processes, such as intense rainfall and snowmelt, lead to rapid dv/v decreases accompanied by marked dCe increases. Notably, several hours prior to multiple debris-flow events, persistent dv/v reductions and rapid dCe increases were consistently observed as precursory signals, with rainfall-triggered events (e.g., 10 July 2020) displaying particularly prominent precursory characteristics. By jointly analyzing seismic velocity changes, precipitation, and soil moisture, this study reveals the progressive degradation of subsurface media during debris-flow initiation and demonstrates the potential of seismic methods for long-term hazard monitoring in glacial and periglacial environments.

How to cite: Lyu, A. and He, S.: Seismic Precursory Velocity Changes Associated with Debris Flows in Tianmogou Inferred from Ambient Noise Interferometry, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17858, 2026.

EGU26-17967 | Orals | NH3.3

Assessing Climate-Driven Changes in Rainfall-Induced Landslide Probability Using Distributed Hydrological Modeling 

Elisa Arnone, Juby Thomas, Diego Ciriminna, and Antonio Francipane

Rainfall-induced shallow landslides represent a critical natural hazard in mountainous regions, with their frequency controlled by hydrological processes. Climate change is expected to alter both precipitation patterns and soil moisture dynamics but quantifying these impacts on landslide susceptibility remains challenging.

In this study, we integrate physically-based stability thresholds with distributed hydrological modeling to assess future landslide hazard evolution under multiple climate scenarios. The study is conducted for a small basin (~28 km2) located in the north-eastern Friuli Venezia Giulia (Italy).

Spatially explicit Critical Soil Moisture (CSM) and Critical Wetness Index (CWI) thresholds at 50 m resolution were derived in a previous effort for multiple failure depths (0.75 to 2.00 m) by inverting the infinite slope stability analysis. The thresholds represent hydrological conditions at which slope failure may initiate through either unsaturated zone processes or groundwater table rise. These thresholds were coupled with a calibrated distributed and physically-based hydrological model, the Triangulated Irregular Network‐based real‐time integrated basin simulator (tRIBS), which simulates hourly soil moisture and groundwater dynamics, to assess the occurrence of failure over 100-year periods for three synthetically generated climate scenarios: current conditions, moderate emissions (RCP4.5, 2050), and high emissions (RCP8.5, 2050). The synthetic series of meteorological variables, and particularly precipitation, were generated by combining the AWE-GEN (Advanced WEather GENerator) model with a procedure to correct the distribution of extreme events.

We quantify exceedance frequencies, i.e., the proportion of time during which CSM and CWI thresholds are exceeded, as a measure of temporal exposure to landslide-conducive conditions. Results reveal that, under RCP4.5, exceedance frequencies decrease by up to 14.6% (CWI) and 10.9% (CSM), due to a reduction in annual precipitation despite an increase in mean intensity per event. In contrast, RCP8.5 shows bidirectional patterns, with maximum increases reaching 5.1% (CWI) and 3.6% (CSM), indicating that precipitation intensification begins to overcome the reduction in annual precipitation. Critically, climate impacts amplify with failure depth; the 2.00 m failure depth exhibits changes in magnitude up to three times greater than those at 0.75 m, suggesting that deeper failures become disproportionately more sensitive to climate change.

This research received funding from European Union NextGenerationEU – National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.1 -PRIN 2022 – 2022ZC2522 - CUP G53D23001400006.

How to cite: Arnone, E., Thomas, J., Ciriminna, D., and Francipane, A.: Assessing Climate-Driven Changes in Rainfall-Induced Landslide Probability Using Distributed Hydrological Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17967, 2026.

EGU26-19557 | ECS | Posters on site | NH3.3

Reconstructing rainfall-induced landslides at the global scale 

Yi Xia and Ke Zhang

Rainfall-induced landslides are among the most widespread and destructive natural hazards, yet their physical reconstruction has rarely been explored beyond local or regional scales. We present a simplified slope-stability framework driven entirely by globally available rainfall, soil, and topographic datasets, and demonstrate its ability to reproduce thousands of rainfall-triggered landslides documented in the Global Landslide Catalog (GLC).By avoiding computationally intensive hydrological simulations while retaining physical interpretability, the proposed approach enables large-scale reconstruction of rainfall-induced slope failures across diverse environmental settings. Sensitivity analyses indicate that slope geometry and rainfall forcing primarily control proximity to failure and its timing, whereas soil bulk density exerts a disproportionate influence on model uncertainty due to its structural role in both mechanical resistance and hydrological response.Model performance is strongest in tropical and temperate regions, while reduced skill is observed in arid and cold climates, where failures tend to be conservatively predicted, favouring early-warning applications. Under scenarios characterised by intensified extreme rainfall, the framework suggests an overall increase in global slope instability. These results demonstrate the feasibility of reconstructing rainfall-induced landslides at the global scale using simplified physical representations, and highlight key directions for further improvement, including vegetation effects, subsurface heterogeneity, and hydrological process representation.

How to cite: Xia, Y. and Zhang, K.: Reconstructing rainfall-induced landslides at the global scale, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19557, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19557, 2026.

EGU26-19964 | ECS | Posters on site | NH3.3

Sensitivity Analysis of Physically-based 3D Landslide Susceptibility Model from Variation of Input Parameters 

Enok Cheon, Marie Gotaas, Sivert Pettersen, Emir Ahmet Oguz, Amanda DiBiagio, and Luca Piciullo

Shallow landslides frequently occur on natural slopes and cause flow-like disasters. The authors have previously developed 3-Dimensional Translational Slide (3DTS), a physically-based 3D shallow landslide susceptibility model accounting for side resistance and vegetation effects, to efficiently evaluate the slope stability in terms of the factor of safety (FS) over a regional scale. Traditionally, a deterministic slope stability analysis was performed by assigning representative values to rainfall history, soil layers, and soil properties; however, new design standards demand reliability-based analyses that account for the uncertainty and variation in precipitation, subsurface conditions, soil hydro-geotechnical properties, and vegetation root reinforcement. Therefore, this research proposes extending the developed model into a 3-Dimensional Translational Slide-Probabilistic (3DTSP) model to enable reliability-based landslide susceptibility assessment. The developed 3DTSP model combines the generalized Green-Ampt infiltration model and the 3D Janbu simplified slope stability model. The 3D slope stability analysis accounts for additional soil frictional resistance at the side regions in translational slides and additional reinforcements from tree roots. The 3DTSP model uses a Monte Carlo simulation with a random-field approach to determine the FS statistical distribution from variations in the following input parameters: soil thickness, hydraulic properties, Mohr-Coulomb criterion-based shear strength properties, unsaturated soil strength properties, and vegetation resistance properties. Based on the statistical distribution and characteristic length, the model generates a random field of input parameters that accounts for spatial variation in the horizontal direction. For each Monte Carlo simulation iteration, a new random input field is generated to compute FS. The performance and applicability of the developed 3DTSP for probabilistic assessment of landslide susceptibility over regional scales were demonstrated by analyzing landslide case studies. A sensitivity study was conducted to assess the sensitivity of FS to variations in soil thickness, soil properties, and vegetation properties.

How to cite: Cheon, E., Gotaas, M., Pettersen, S., Oguz, E. A., DiBiagio, A., and Piciullo, L.: Sensitivity Analysis of Physically-based 3D Landslide Susceptibility Model from Variation of Input Parameters, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19964, 2026.

EGU26-21563 | Posters on site | NH3.3

Mapping Landslide Susceptibility in the Moldavian Plain, Romania 

Radu Irimia, Ionut Sandric, and Viorel Ilinca

Shallow landslides represent a frequent geomorphological process in the study region, located in northeastern Romania. The area is characterized by gently undulating interfluves, fragmented slopes, and deeply incised valleys, developed predominantly on clayey substrates. These predominantly shallow slope failures have significant impacts on intensive agriculture, rural infrastructure, and slope stability. Recent climatic variability and anthropogenic modifications of land use amplify the vulnerability of this geomorphological unit. This study presents a detailed assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility through the integration of an extensive landslide inventory with conditioning factors derived from high-resolution geospatial data. The landslide inventory was developed predominantly using digital elevation models generated from LiDAR data (1–2 m resolution), complemented by current orthophotos, drone aerial imagery, slope maps, and selective field validation. The use of LiDAR data substantially improves the precision of delineating shallow unstable features and reduces propagation errors associated with conventional lower-resolution DEMs. This methodology enabled the precise delineation of hundreds of active and relict shallow landslide features, surpassing the limitations of traditional inventories based on photogrammetry or global DEMs.
Relevant conditioning factors for slope dynamics in this region included slope angle, aspect, plan and profile curvature, lithological units (predominantly Miocene-Pliocene clayey deposits), land use, and distance to the drainage network. The dataset was divided into 70% for calibration and 30% for independent validation. The Presence Only Model performance was evaluated through ROC curves and AUC metrics, with values consistently demonstrating excellent predictive performance of the hybrid approach employed.
Results highlight zones of high and very high susceptibility to shallow landslides concentrated along major valleys and their tributaries, and on slopes exceeding 12–15°, where favourable lithological conditions overlap with intensive agricultural land uses or reduced vegetation cover. Methodologically, this study aligns with established international approaches for landslide susceptibility assessment but distinguishes itself through the use of high-resolution LiDAR data (1–2 m), specifically adapted to the morphological context of the region—an area with gently rolling relief and deeply incised valleys. This choice enables substantial reduction of topographic uncertainties inherent in models based on medium or low-resolution DEMs, thereby improving the precision of shallow instability feature delineation and the robustness of local predictions. The result is a susceptibility model with high transferability potential to other similar geomorphological units in plain-to-hill transition zones affected by shallow landsliding.

How to cite: Irimia, R., Sandric, I., and Ilinca, V.: Mapping Landslide Susceptibility in the Moldavian Plain, Romania, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21563, 2026.

EGU26-22967 | ECS | Orals | NH3.3

Understanding and Zoning Rainfall-Induced Landslide Hazards in Indonesia: Insights from Observation to Forecasting 

Lisa Agustina, Christian Arnhardt, Maximillian Van Wyk De Vries, Ekbal Hussain, David Large, and Barbara Turnbull
As one of the most destructive natural hazards, landslides pose persistent threats to human life, property, and critical infrastructure in Indonesia, where intense rainfall and steep, complex terrain strongly control landslide occurrence and impacts. Although landslides may be triggered by multiple factors, including earthquakes and prolonged rainfall, rainfall remains the only trigger that can be forecasted, making it central to operational landslide early warning. Between 2019 and 2024, based on Indonesian Disaster Information Database (DIBI–BNPB), more than 4,000 landslides were recorded across Indonesia, causing substantial loss of life and widespread damage to housing and public infrastructure.
At present, landslide early warning in Indonesia relies on a single nationwide rainfall threshold, which may limit forecast accuracy and reliability given the country’s strong spatial variability in rainfall patterns and geomorphological conditions. Developing rainfall thresholds at large spatial scales is therefore challenging. To address this limitation, this study adopts a zoning approach that prioritises areas with high landslide susceptibility and potentially severe impacts, providing a targeted basis for subsequent threshold development.
Landslide susceptibility maps are produced using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), chosen in preference to data-driven methods due to biases and incompleteness in the available landslide inventory, which tends to reflect population distribution rather than true landslide source areas. Two provinces, Central Java and South Sulawesi, are selected as initial case studies. According to the data from Local Indonesian Disaster Management (BPBD), more than 2,000 landslides were recorded in Central Java between 2016 and 2025, while over 500 events were documented in South Sulawesi between 2021 and 2025.
Population density, building distribution, landslide susceptibility, and landslide runout probability are integrated to identify zones with the highest potential impacts. These high-impact zones serve as priority areas for developing more representative rainfall thresholds, with the aim of improving landslide forecasting and risk reduction in Indonesia.

How to cite: Agustina, L., Arnhardt, C., Van Wyk De Vries, M., Hussain, E., Large, D., and Turnbull, B.: Understanding and Zoning Rainfall-Induced Landslide Hazards in Indonesia: Insights from Observation to Forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22967, 2026.

We applied the machine-learning–based probabilistic forecasting algorithm NESTORE (NExt STRong Related Earthquake) to the seismicity of New Zealand. NESTORE analyses nine features describing aftershock occurrence, source area evolution, and temporal trends in magnitude and radiated energy, computed over progressively increasing time windows following the mainshock. These features enable the algorithm to estimate the probability that a mainshock of magnitude Mm will be followed by a subsequent event of magnitude ≥ Mm–1 within the space-time domain of the associated  eismic cluster. Clusters in which such a strong aftershock occurs are classified as “Type A,” indicating higher potential hazard, while others are classified as “Type B.” For each cluster, the algorithm outputs the corresponding probability of belonging to Type A.

New Zealand’s position along the boundary between the Australian and Pacific plates results in widespread, complex deformation and a relevant  seismic activity, including major events up to magnitude 7.8. This setting makes the region an ideal testing ground for operational, data-driven forecasting tools such as NESTORE. Understanding and forecasting seismic activity is critical for rapid hazard assessment and mitigation efforts.

To evaluate NESTORE’s performance, we employed two testing strategies. The first was a chronological approach, in which the algorithm was trained using seismic clusters occurring before a chosen cutoff time and then used to retrospectively forecast cluster behaviour after that time. The second approach employed stratified k-fold cross-validation, allowing us to assess model generalization across multiple randomized data partitions. To further enhance training quality, we applied the outlier-detection procedure REPENESE (RElevant features, PErcentage class weighting, NEighborhood detection and SElection).

Our results show that the k-fold validation approach provides a more robust and stable performance evaluation than the chronological approach,  although changes in the catalogue may make the more recent clusters a more reliable test set. NESTORE correctly classified 88% of seismic clusters 18 hours after the mainshock, including 77% of Type A clusters and 92% of Type B clusters. Notably, the Canterbury/Christchurch 2010–2011 sequence, a critical and highly destructive Type A cluster, was correctly classified by the algorithm.

Overall, the results of this work underscore the potential for use of NESTORE for short-term aftershock forecasting in New Zealand.

How to cite: Caravella, L. and Gentili, S.: Forecasting strong aftershocks in New Zealand with the machine-learning NESTORE algorithm: two different testing approaches, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-524, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-524, 2026.

The East African Rift System (EARS) is an active continental rift that experiences frequent earthquakes, yet seismic hazard assessment across the region remains difficult. Challenges stem from sparse monitoring networks, the absence of standardized guidelines, and numerous active faults that remain unmapped or poorly characterized. In addition, regional earthquake catalogs are incomplete and often depend on limited data, introducing considerable uncertainty into seismic hazard estimates. Despite these issues, conventional least-squares regression methods are still commonly used for magnitude conversion, even though they are sensitive to outliers, rely on assumptions that are made but rarely validated, and possess several limitations. These limitations constrain the generation of reliable homogenized earthquake catalogs essential for seismicity, seismotectonic, and hazard assessments.

This study proposes a robust statistical framework for deriving regional magnitude conversion relationships using the Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) estimation method. REML is particularly advantageous for data-scarce regions such as EARS, as it explicitly accounts for measurement uncertainties, non-constant variance, and the prevalence of outliers common in mixed-magnitude earthquake catalogs. The methodology incorporates rigorous statistical tests, including Box–Cox transformations for date normality, residual diagnostics, and variance stability evaluations.

To demonstrate its usefulness, the proposed framework is applied to catalogs from three regions along the EARS: (1) the Main Ethiopian Rift (Eastern Branch), (2) Sudan (a tectonically stable region), and (3) Malawi (Western Branch). The resulting magnitude conversion relationships exhibit significantly reduced uncertainty and provide confidence bounds, thereby enhancing the reliability of homogenized earthquake catalogs. The proposed approach strengthens the consistency of earthquake datasets across East Africa and offers a valuable tool for improving seismic hazard and risk assessments in similar data- limited regions worldwide.

How to cite: Al-Ajamee, M.: A Restricted Maximum Likelihood Framework for Earthquake Magnitude Conversion in Data-limited Regions of the East African Rift, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-664, 2026.

EGU26-1005 | ECS | Posters on site | NH4.8

Predicting Earthquakes Across The Anatolian Plate Through Machine Learning Algorithms 

Alperen Gülümsek, Oğuz Hakan Göğüş, Mehmet Tolga Kılınçkaya, and Ömer Bodur

Situated along three major plate boundaries, Anatolian plate is represented by major destructive earthquakes exceeding Mw > 7.  Accurate forecasting of earthquake epicenters is crucial for both structural resilience and efficient risk reduction. In this work, we develop a machine-learning based epicenter prediction framework covering the entire territory of Türkiye, using the national seismic catalogue provided by KOERİ and AFAD. The dataset in particular is partitioned into four consistent clusters derived from localized strain fields estimated through integrated InSAR and GNSS observations (e.g Weiss et al 2020). For training the models, we removed the background max shear strain < 50 nanostrain/year and consider, namely, the North Anatolian fault system, East Anatolian fault system, western Anatolian extensional region, and East Anatolian shortening zone.  In addition, all earthquakes are classified as large or medium using a magnitude threshold of Mw ≥ 5, yielding eight distinct datasets. For each dataset, we train and evaluate seven machine-learning models—Linear Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)—to predict future epicenters (latitude and longitude) from historical spatiotemporal information. Comparing all models within each geodetic cluster allows us to identify which model families perform better under specific tectonic deformation regimes, while simultaneously revealing which regions exhibit higher predictability. This multi-model, multi-region evaluation provides new insights into data-driven seismic forecasting across the Anatolian plate where the role of various plate boundary scale faults (shear zones) are associated with destructive earthquakes.

How to cite: Gülümsek, A., Göğüş, O. H., Kılınçkaya, M. T., and Bodur, Ö.: Predicting Earthquakes Across The Anatolian Plate Through Machine Learning Algorithms, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1005, 2026.

EGU26-1006 | ECS | Posters on site | NH4.8

Federated Learning–Based Earthquake Forecasting in the Western Anatolia-Aegean Extensional Province 

Mehmet Tolga Kılınçkaya, Oğuz Hakan Göğüş, Alperen Gülümsek, and Ömer Bodur

The Western Anatolia-Aegean region is dominated by active lithospheric extension, magmatism and widespread seismicity (including Samos earthquake Mw=7.0, 30.10. 2020). However, its complex tectonic setting including continuum/distributed mode of deformation rather than block type (more localized), and uneven station coverage highlight the limitations of traditional centralized machine-learning approaches. Notably, owing to data-sharing restrictions and the lack of regionally representative training datasets there are substantial challenges for developing reliable short-term earthquake forecasting models. To address these issues, we develop a federated learning (FL) framework that enables multiple seismic agencies and stations to collaboratively train predictive models without exchanging raw waveform data. Our dataset integrates multi-station acceleration and INSAR-GPS based displacement time-series, regional geological parameters, and spatiotemporal feature windows derived from AFAD, KOERI, IRIS, and USGS archives. Within this framework, we formulate two forecasting tasks: (i) classification of the likelihood of an earthquake exceeding a magnitude threshold within 24–72 hours, and (ii) regression-based estimation of short-term seismic intensity. Several deep-learning architectures, including 1D-CNN, LSTM, and CNN–LSTM hybrids, are implemented under both centralized and federated training schemes to systematically evaluate the effect of non-IID data distributions, communication constraints, and regional variability on forecasting skill. Comparative experiments show that FL preserves most of the predictive performance of centralized models while providing critical advantages in data privacy, scalability, and institutional participation. These results highlight the potential role of federated machine learning to support next-generation seismic forecasting systems, foster cross-institutional collaboration, and facilitate operational earthquake preparedness across data-restricted regions.

How to cite: Kılınçkaya, M. T., Göğüş, O. H., Gülümsek, A., and Bodur, Ö.: Federated Learning–Based Earthquake Forecasting in the Western Anatolia-Aegean Extensional Province, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1006, 2026.

1 Research Objectives and Methods

To clarify the sequence characteristics and post-earthquake trend of the Ms 7.3 earthquake in the sea area off Hualien County, Taiwan, on April 3, 2024 (focal depth 12 km, epicenter at 23.81°N latitude and 121.74°E longitude), this study is based on observational data from the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC), combined with the regional geological and tectonic background. Selecting seismic catalog data from November 2023 to December 2024, systematic analysis was conducted on the spatiotemporal distribution, intensity variation, frequency characteristics and dynamic evolution law of the earthquake using analytical tools such as M-T diagrams, H-T diagrams, h-value curves, b-value curves and creep curves.

2 Study Area Characteristics and Seismic Sequence Analysis

2.1 Tectonic setting and spatial distribution of seismic activity: The study area is located at the subduction boundary between the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate, controlled by the tectonic background of the northern segment of the Huadong Valley Fault Zone. Seismic activity features a spatial pattern of "stronger and denser in the east, weaker and sparser in the west". Epicenters are concentrated within the range of 121-123°E longitude and 23-25°N latitude, showing an overall northeast-southwest trend.

2.2 Seismic sequence type and source characteristics: The earthquake sequence is a typical mainshock-aftershock type, with the mainshock releasing 98.2% of the total energy of the sequence. Aftershocks are active after the mainshock, and their attenuation follows the modified Omori formula. Shallow-focus earthquakes (0-50 km) dominate, which are highly destructive; a small number of deep-focus earthquakes also occur, reflecting stress adjustment processes at different crustal levels.

2.3 Seismic sequence parameter analysis: Analysis of the seismic sequence parameters reveals that the post-earthquake h-value is 1.1 (faster than the conventional attenuation rate), and the b-value is 1.0166 (with a higher proportion of small and medium-sized earthquakes). There is a significant linear correlation between magnitude and logarithmic frequency, consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter law. The creep curve clearly shows a three-stage evolutionary characteristic: "strain accumulation — mainshock release — post-earthquake adjustment".

3 Post-Earthquake Trend Determination and Research Significance

3.1 Post-earthquake trend judgment: The intensity and frequency of aftershock activity will continue to attenuate, and the probability of a magnitude 7.0 or above strong earthquake occurring in the short term (within several months) is extremely low. However, deep-seated stress adjustment in the region is not yet complete; special attention should be paid to stress transfer in the unruptured area of the northern segment of the Huadong Valley Fault Zone to prevent the occurrence of delayed strong aftershocks.

3.2 Research significance: The conclusions of this study provide scientific support for the research on earthquake mechanisms and disaster prevention and control work in eastern Taiwan.

How to cite: Wu, B.: Characteristics of the Seismic Sequence and Determination of Post-Earthquake Trends for the MS 7.3 Earthquake in the Sea Area Off Hualien County, Taiwan, April 3, 2024, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2107, 2026.

Earthquake sequences exhibit intricate space–time–magnitude patterns that have motivated the use of statistical methods to uncover properties and relationships that standard time-series analysis techniques are unable to capture. Although these methods have made it possible to highlight properties such as clustering, scaling, long-range dependencies and related features, appropriate analyses of the complexity of the seismic phenomenon have not yet been developed or applied.
Since Bandt and Pompe’s seminal work, the permutation entropy and statistical complexity form the basis for constructing the so-called complexity–entropy causality plane (CECP). Permutation entropy and statistical complexity provide insight into two different aspects of a dataset. Permutation entropy measures the level of intrinsic randomness: data that are more predictable and tend to repeat a limited number of ordinal patterns exhibit lower permutation entropy, whereas data with a greater variety of patterns and less predictability show higher values. For a fixed value of permutation entropy, statistical complexity indicates the extent to which certain ordinal patterns are favored over others. In other words, higher complexity—at a given entropy level—reflects a greater deviation from a uniform distribution, suggesting that some ordinal patterns occur more frequently than others. By computing both measures for a time series, one can simultaneously assess the randomness of the data and the degree of structural or correlational organization within its fluctuations. 
While the CECP has been widely used to investigate the complex patterns of continuous time series, it has yet to be applied to analyze point processes, particularly in the context of seismic events. Thus, the present paper aims at analyzing the dynamics of seismic point processes in the CECP, offering new insights into their underlying patterns and behaviors. 
We first analyzed in the CECP the magnitude series generated by the physics-based numerical model developed by Olami, Feder, and Christensen (OFC) in 1992. Although introduced several decades ago, the OFC model remains a robust framework, successfully reproducing key qualitative features of real-world seismicity, such as the Gutenberg-Richter law, the Omori law, and the Ruff–Kanamori diagram.
We further investigated magnitude sequences from Italian seismic regions affected by the strongest earthquakes since 1985. Our results indicate that these magnitude sequences display in the CECP a pattern that aligns very well with that observed in the OFC model and apparently correlated with the magnitude of the strongest events. 
Although preliminary, these results underscore the potential of CECP analysis for seismicity studies, providing new and diverse ways to describe, interpret, and explore earthquake dynamics.

How to cite: Telesca, L.: Permutation Entropy and Statistical Complexity Analysis of earthquake sequences, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3734, 2026.

The Western Quebec Seismic Zone (WQSZ) is an intraplate region of Canada that experiences an unusual amount of earthquake activity far from plate boundaries. Over the past 40 years, more than 2000 earthquakes have been recorded in the WQSZ. Although the majority of earthquakes occur at relatively low magnitudes (between M 2-3), Canada’s national capital, Ottawa, and its second-largest city, Montréal, are both located within the WQSZ. As a result of their political and economic importance, the Canadian Government implemented an Earthquake Early Warning system to the region in late 2025.

Previous studies have primarily focused on potential faulting mechanisms and/or large earthquakes in the region (M > 5). However, the WQSZ is relatively understudied, with limited modern data science techniques applied to the seismic database. Given the wide surface area covered by the region and the regularity of events (i.e. an earthquake every 6.5 days), there is an urgent need to better understand the spatial and temporal patterns of seismicity across the WQSZ to further inform the hazards on a more local scale.

Clustering analysis is used to help group data into spatial patterns where the relationship is previously unknown. In this study, we apply an unsupervised machine learning clustering algorithm, Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN), to analyze seismicity in the WQSZ and to delineate distinct spatial clusters. However, the output of the clustering analysis through DBSCAN is dependent on the choice of values for key parameters. To address this, a wide range of parameter values are tested to create a broad suite of cluster patterns and a statistical framework is developed to help identify the most robust patterns that best represent the geological and geophysical context for the region.

Our framework combines DBSCAN patterns with temporal, statistical and geological analysis to create a new high-resolution spatio-temporal characterization of seismicity in the WQSZ. These findings not only improve the understanding of localized seismic risk in Western Québec but also provide an application of cluster analysis to real-world logistical issues of seismic hazard analysis, including identifying areas of highest risk for earthquake preparedness and emergency planning in the region.

How to cite: Yasokaran, O. and Heron, P.: Determining the spatio-temporal patterns of intraplate earthquakes of the Western Quebec Seismic Zone using clustering analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8153, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8153, 2026.

EGU26-8613 | ECS | Orals | NH4.8

b-transD: Spatial and temporal variation of b-value and their uncertainty using Bayesian trans-dimensional inference 

Catalina Morales-Yañéz, Roberto Benavente, and Fernanda Bonilla-Contreras
The b-value corresponds to the slope of the Gutenberg–Richter law, which relates the number of earthquakes to their magnitude. Several authors agree that the changepoints of the b-value (i.e., the places where the b-value varies) show more valuable information than the value itself. Spatial and temporal changes in the b-value have been linked to stress variation, fluid processes, geological structures, and earthquake hazard estimation. Given this parameter's importance, robustly retrieving and characterizing b-values and their changepoints is essential.  
In general, most b-value retrieval methodologies fix the spatial or temporal window of the seismic catalog (i.e., binning) and/or use optimization methods to estimate b-values, thereby introducing methodological bias into the solutions.  
In this work, we focus on determining the spatial and temporal variations in b-value to characterize seismic evolution across different regions. On one hand, to explore possible changes in the b-value across space, we use the TransTessellate2D algorithm for 2D Cartesian problems with Voronoi cells, on the other hand, for b-value variation in time, we use the reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm, which allows us to model changes in a single dimension, both algortithm are implemented with a Bayesian trans-dimensional inference methodology.  
The Bayesian transdimensional inversion enables the simultaneous retrieval of both the b-value and the number of b-values necessary to explain the data. It allows for a self-defined seismic domain based on seismic catalog information, eliminating the need to prescribe domain locations and extents. This methodology furthermore has intrinsic parsimony, meaning simple solutions will be chosen over complex ones. As a Bayesian inference method, it also allows for obtaining all the statistical analyses of the solution, including uncertainty and confidence intervals. For all these reasons, it is a perfect tool for retrieving spatial and temporal b-value variation.  
This methodology has been successfully implemented in central-northern Chile and California, helping us characterize the mechanical behavior at the plate interface of subduction and cortical zones. We also apply the methodology to areas with large-magnitude earthquakes and their precursor events (e.g., the 2011 Tohoku, 2015 Illapel, and 2025 Kamchatka earthquakes). Finally, we use both methodologies to obtain results in three dimensions.
Our results show the method's capability to retrieve b-value changes both spatially and temporally. We observe a strong dependence on the number of earthquakes, their distribution, and proximity to obtain a solution with low uncertainty. However, the solutions are consistent with previous studies, further strengthening the reliability of the Bayesian transdimensional method for robustly capturing b-value variations.

How to cite: Morales-Yañéz, C., Benavente, R., and Bonilla-Contreras, F.: b-transD: Spatial and temporal variation of b-value and their uncertainty using Bayesian trans-dimensional inference, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8613, 2026.

EGU26-10805 | Posters on site | NH4.8

Spatiotemporal distribution, Coulomb stress changes, and temporal variations in Vp/Vs ratio during the 2025 Santorini-Amorgos seismic swarm. 

Kyriaki Pavlou, Eirini Sardeli, Andreas Karakonstantis, Sokratis Pappas, Alexandros Athanasopoulos, Antonis Tomaras, Anatoli-Anastasia Kazakou, Chrysoula Travlostathi, and Filippos Vallianatos

Since January 27, 2025, intense seismic activity has been recorded in the offshore area between Santorini and Amorgos, with more than 4,500 events. The sequence began inside the Santorini caldera and gradually migrated northeast. The strongest earthquake was an ML 5.3 event on February 10, 2025. In this study offers a seismological analysis that integrates patterns of seismic activity over space and time, static Coulomb failure stress changes, and shifts in seismic velocity structure to explore the mechanisms behind the swarm's development.

The analysis is based on seismological data from the NKUA monitoring network for the period from 1 January to 3 March 2025. Coulomb stress changes were computed for events with Mw ≥ 4.7 using elastic half-space modelling, while a modified Wadati method was applied to a subset of well-located events to estimate the regional average Vp/Vs ratio. The results reveal a northeastward migration of seismicity, closely aligned with NE–SW-oriented fault structures in the Santorini–Amorgos area.

Coulomb stress modelling for the events of magnitude Mw > 4.8 reveals predominantly positive stress changes at the hypocenters of subsequent earthquakes, suggesting that static stress transfer contributed significantly to the progressive activation of neighboring faults. At the same time, the estimated Vp/Vs ratio of approximately 1.75 is consistent with a fluid-influenced seismogenic environment, supporting the involvement of crustal heterogeneities and possible fluid-related processes during the swarm.

The combined observations suggest that the 2025 Santorini–Amorgos seismic sequence was controlled by the interaction between fault-driven stress redistribution and variations in crustal properties. This approach provides new insights into earthquake triggering mechanisms in complex volcanic–tectonic settings of the South Aegean and highlights the importance of multidisciplinary analyses for seismic hazard assessment.

 

How to cite: Pavlou, K., Sardeli, E., Karakonstantis, A., Pappas, S., Athanasopoulos, A., Tomaras, A., Kazakou, A.-A., Travlostathi, C., and Vallianatos, F.: Spatiotemporal distribution, Coulomb stress changes, and temporal variations in Vp/Vs ratio during the 2025 Santorini-Amorgos seismic swarm., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10805, 2026.

EGU26-10943 | Orals | NH4.8

SPDE–ETAS: Fast and Accurate Bayesian Inference for the Spatio-Temporal Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) Model 

Sofiane Taki-Eddine Rahmani, Gert Zöller, and Sebastian Hainzl

We propose a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) formulation of the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model for efficient Bayesian inference of spatially varying background seismicity. While recent Bayesian ETAS formulations already model the background rate using Gaussian Process priors, their application to large earthquake catalogs is limited by the associated dense covariance structure. Using synthetic earthquake catalogs, we demonstrate that the proposed SPDE–ETAS model accurately recovers both background and triggering parameters, achieving estimation performance comparable to previous Gaussian Process–based Bayesian ETAS models and superior stability relative to kernel-based approaches. The sparse precision matrix induced by the SPDE representation leads to substantial reductions in computational cost and memory usage, enabling scalable inference without compromising accuracy. Application to the Italian earthquake catalog (1960–2025) reveals spatially coherent background seismicity patterns aligned with major tectonic features, and provides robust and well-constrained Bayesian estimates of ETAS triggering parameters. These results establish the SPDE–ETAS framework as a computationally efficient and flexible alternative for Bayesian earthquake modeling, particularly suited for large and high-resolution seismic catalogs.

How to cite: Rahmani, S. T.-E., Zöller, G., and Hainzl, S.: SPDE–ETAS: Fast and Accurate Bayesian Inference for the Spatio-Temporal Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) Model, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10943, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10943, 2026.

EGU26-11349 | Orals | NH4.8

Clues on the ongoing unrest at Campi Flegrei from the high-definition seismic 2022-2025 catalogue 

Jacopo Selva, Ester Piegari, Jacopo Natale, Stefano Vitale, Giovanni Chiodini, Stefano Caliro, and Warner Marzocchi

The statistical analysis of the recently published high-resolution seismic catalogue for Campi Flegrei (January 2022–March 2025, Tan et al. 2025) reveals that deep-sourced degassing controls Campi Flegrei seismicity, illuminating pathways to the surface along a subset of permeable structures and generating seismicity only in specific volumes. Analysing the catalogue using machine learning cluster analysis to identify objective volumetric seismicity sources, two main seismogenic volumes emerge: a deep ring of cigar-shaped 1D source volumes, and a cloud of shallower 1D/3D source volumes connecting the ring's northern sector to the surface. The found clusters were compared with other existing information about the caldera structure (e.g. known faults, deep and surficial tomography studies of different nature, geochemical data), showing that ring seismicity encircles a potential primary volcanic source (main degassing zone) and occurs at the intersection between pre-existing faults and a sub-horizontal south-dipping rheological interface, while the cloud track the main gas plumes detaching from the ring and infiltrating through faults into the shallowest seismic volumes below Accademia, Solfatara-Piscarelli and Rione Terra. Interesting spatio-temporal variations in the rate of activity of the different sources seem to track pressurization cycles, leading to the activation of new volumes during high activity periods.

 

Xing Tan, A. Tramelli, S. Gammaldi, G.C. Beroza, W.L. Ellsworth, W. Marzocchi, A clearer view of the current phase of unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera. Science 390, 70-75 (2025). doi:10.1126/science.adw9038

How to cite: Selva, J., Piegari, E., Natale, J., Vitale, S., Chiodini, G., Caliro, S., and Marzocchi, W.: Clues on the ongoing unrest at Campi Flegrei from the high-definition seismic 2022-2025 catalogue, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11349, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11349, 2026.

EGU26-11466 | ECS | Posters on site | NH4.8

Seismicity and active tectonics of northern Borneo  

wuttinan tonprasert and Nicholas Rawlinson

Sabah, the easternmost state of Malaysia, is the most tectonically active region of Borneo despite being distant from  active plate boundaries. Global earthquake catalogues record recurrent earthquakes of Mw ≈ 5.0 at roughly five-year intervals, primarily concentrated along the northwestern and southeastern flanks of Sabah. Seismicity along the northwestern flank is particularly focused around Mount Kinabalu and the offshore Baram Delta, where normal faulting and half-graben basin development coexist with thrust faulting. In contrast, seismicity along the southeastern flank is dominated by thrust-faulting earthquakes at  depths up to 30-40 km. Numerous studies suggest that this intraplate seismicity reflects the reactivation of post-subduction structures inherited from the Proto–South China Sea subduction and subsequent Celebes Sea subduction beneath Sabah in the Neogene. Despite this activity, detailed seismicity studies remain sparse due to historically limited seismic station coverage. Recent expansion of the Malaysian National Seismic Network and the temporary Northern Borneo Seismic Network (nBOSS) between 2018-202  provide new opportunities to develop an enhanced earthquake catalogue with improved source characterisation. This study aims to produce a refined earthquake catalogue for Sabah, with particular focus on the Mount Kinabalu and Darvel Bay regions. We integrate machine-learning-based tools, including PhaseNet, together with in-house software (QuakeMigrate and MTfit), to automatically analyse spatial and temporal patterns of seismicity and focal mechanisms. The goal is to improve our understanding of the active tectonics of northern Borneo and assess the implications for regional seismic hazard in this post-subduction setting.

How to cite: tonprasert, W. and Rawlinson, N.: Seismicity and active tectonics of northern Borneo , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11466, 2026.

EGU26-11541 | Posters on site | NH4.8

The largest earthquakes recorded for over a century significantly depart from a simple Gutenberg-Richter distribution 

Álvaro González, Álvaro Corral, and Isabel Serra

Beno Gutenberg and Charles F. Richter (1941) already hypothesized that their exponential relation between the magnitude and occurrence frequency of earthquakes would not be valid for the largest ones, as there should be a maximum limit to the earthquake size. This departure would have profound implications for global seismic hazard assessment, as there would actually be fewer large earthquakes than extrapolated from the distribution of smaller ones.

But statistically proving or disproving this hypothesis has been elusive, and a debate is ongoing on whether a statistically significant departure can be observed in the available global data. It was first necessary to develop a magnitude scale reliable up to the largest earthquake sizes (moment magnitude Mw, in the 1970s) and gathering ever-increasing earthquake catalogues (especially since the 1980s).

Not all statistical tests may identify a given departure as significant, because the largest earthquakes are infrequent, so their sample size is small. Recently it has been proposed that the whole observed distribution is still a simple exponential (Taroni, 2025). But several earlier results already had already identified a significant departure by which the tail of the distribution decays faster (Yoder et al., 2012, Serra & Corral, 2017, Corral & González, 2019).

To settle this question, here we use the largest available dataset: the ISC-GEM catalogue (International Seismological Centre, 2026) since the early XX century. In the analysis, we explicitly account for the magnitude uncertainties (substantial before the advent of the World-Wide Standardized Seismograph Network in the late 1960s).

This approach allows us considering the largest earthquakes ever instrumentally recorded and about triples the number of large earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6.5) available for analysis, compared to considering only the seismicity since the 1980s as typically done.

Using robust statistical tests, we show that the observed departure from a single Gutenberg-Richter law (clearly visible for Mw larger than ~7.6) is statistically significant, and examine the shape of this tail and its persistence in time.

 

References cited

Corral, Á., González, Á. (2019). Power law size distributions in geoscience revisited. Earth and Space Science, 6, 673–697. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ea000479

Gutenberg, B. & Richter, C. F. (1941). Seismicity of the Earth. Geological Society of America Special Papers, number 34. 131 p.

International Seismological Centre (2026). ISC-GEM Earthquake Catalogue, https://doi.org/10.31905/d808b825

Serra, I., & Corral, A. (2017). Deviation from power law of the global seismic moment distribution. Scientific Reports, 7, 40045. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep40045

Taroni, M. (2025). The Gutenberg–Richter law strikes back: the exponentiality of magnitudes is confirmed by worldwide seismicity. Geophysical Journal International, 243 (2), ggaf366, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaf366

Yoder, M. R., Holliday, J. R., Turcotte, D. L., & Rundle, J. B. (2012). A geometric frequency-magnitude scaling transition: Measuring b = 1.5 for large earthquakes. Tectonophysics, 532-535, 167–174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2012.01.034

How to cite: González, Á., Corral, Á., and Serra, I.: The largest earthquakes recorded for over a century significantly depart from a simple Gutenberg-Richter distribution, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11541, 2026.

EGU26-12197 | ECS | Orals | NH4.8

Elliptic Triggering Kernels and Adaptive Productivity in European OEF 

Marta Han, Leila Mizrahi, and Stefan Wiemer

Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) predominantly relies on Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models for short-term seismicity forecasts. We first develop and calibrate a baseline ETAS model for the European region, systematically exploring parameterisations that include alternative productivity laws and spatially variable background rates informed by the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20). These extensions provide a consistent reference framework for regional-scale OEF. Building on this baseline, we improve the spatial triggering component by replacing isotropic kernels with event-specific elliptic kernels that incorporate directional information inferred from aftershock distributions. In near-real-time forecasting, the estimation of kernel orientations introduces a latency, as directional information becomes available only after sufficient aftershocks have occurred. However, our model leads to improved performance in pseudo-prospective forecasts, highlighting the relevance of spatial anisotropy in triggered seismicity. We also find reduced bias in ETAS parameters, primarily the productivity law. 

We further investigate mismatches between expected and observed aftershock productivity by proposing simple productivity updates based on residuals between predicted and observed aftershock counts, yielding modest positive information gain on average. A sequence-by-sequence analysis reveals, however, that some sequences transition from early underestimation to later overestimation, or vice versa, limiting the effectiveness of uniform adaptive schemes. We therefore explore whether early sequence behaviour and covariates such as tectonic regime, location, and geophysical features can help anticipate subsequent productivity evolution. Finally, we assess the practical value of increasing model complexity for OEF, questioning whether statistically significant performance gains translate into meaningful improvements over simpler forecasting approaches. 

How to cite: Han, M., Mizrahi, L., and Wiemer, S.: Elliptic Triggering Kernels and Adaptive Productivity in European OEF, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12197, 2026.

The territory of Caucasus is a seismo-active region affected by the tectonic interaction of Arabian and Eurasian plates. The strong deformation processes developed here cause the accumulation of tectonic energy - stress, which discharges by the occurrence of numerous earthquakes. The monitoring and study of earthquake precursors represent the task of global importance.

It is known that there are number of earthquakes’ precursors, which can be registered in various geophysical fields (geomagnetic, hydrogeodeformation), but in order to consider the precursors registered before the activation of tectonic processes as a reliable earthquake indicators, it is necessary to reveal the solid connection between the seismic activity and the variation of the parameters, characterizing various geophysical fields. 

      The existing modern multiparametric monitoring system in Georgia, allow us to conduct a probabilistic assessment of expected earthquake magnitudes in different locations across Georgia, using modern Machine Learning (ML) methods, namely deep neural networks (DNN) technology, applied to experimental monitoring data on water level in boreholes and geomagnetic data.

During observation we consider the earthquake forecast as a binary problem of machine learning on the imbalanced data base applied to five regions of Georgia. For the training we used the geophysical data base collected in 2020-2024, namely, variations of statistical characteristics of geomagnetic field components, seismic activity, water level in deep boreholes and tides.

 In the present study, special attention is paid to the identification of stable precursor patterns by integrating multiple geophysical parameters within a unified analytical framework. Feature engineering and normalization techniques were applied to reduce noise and enhance the sensitivity of weak pre-seismic signals. The performance of the developed ML models was evaluated using standard classification metrics, including precision, recall, F1-score, and probability gain, demonstrating an improvement in detection capability compared to single-parameter approaches. The preliminary results indicate that joint analysis of geomagnetic, hydrogeological, and tidal data increases the reliability of probabilistic seismic forecasting and provides a promising basis for the development of an operational early-warning support system for seismically active regions of Georgia.  

How to cite: Jimsheladze, T.: Preliminary results on variation of geophysical parameters during preparation of seismic events in Georgia using Machine Learning tools, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12516, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12516, 2026.

EGU26-13017 | ECS | Posters on site | NH4.8

Machine learning-based seismic event classification at selected stations of the Czech Regional Seismic Network 

Michael Skotnica, Marek Pecha, Jana Pazdírková, Jana Rušajová, and Bohdan Rieznikov

The Czech Republic is a moderately active seismic region. Although most recorded earthquakes are weak, some events are strong enough to be felt by the population (e.g. Hlučín, December 2017, ML 3.5; West Bohemia, December 2025, ML 2.5 – 3.0). The majority of seismicity is mining-induced; however, areas of natural seismicity also exist, such as the Opava region and West Bohemia.

Seismic activity in the Czech Republic is monitored by several seismic networks, with the Czech Regional Seismic Network (CRSN) serving as the primary system. Seismic monitoring includes rigorous event classification, i.e. distinguishing between natural and induced seismicity as well as between earthquakes and surface explosions recorded by seismic stations.

With the growing volume of seismic data, semi-automated seismic event processing has become increasingly necessary. Automatic seismic event classification based on seismic signals represents a key step toward this goal. In previous work, we achieved promising results using machine learning (ML) techniques applied to data from the Ostrava-Krásné Pole station (OKC), which monitors the northeastern Czech Republic, an area with historically significant mining activity.

In this study, we extend seismic event classification to stations with a different instrumentation and apply newer ML approaches. Namely, we analyze data from the Moravský Beroun (MORC) and Vranov (VRAC) stations of the CRSN, both equipped with broadband STS-2 sensors with a lower corner period of 120 s and recording continuous seismic waveforms at 100 Hz. The studied dataset used for binary classification consists of records of mining-induced seismic events (8,338 from MORC, 4,085 from VRAC) and quarry blasts (4,193 from MORC, 3,041 from VRAC), which were localized in the Czech Republic and its neighbouring countries in 2023 – 2025. Induced events with known P- and S-wave arrivals and explosions with known P-wave arrivals were selected. The P-wave and S-wave arrival times were taken from bulletins provided by the Institute of Physics of the Earth.

Each processed event record includes 1 s before the P-wave arrival and either 20 s after the S-wave arrival (if available) or 30 s after the P-wave arrival. Data preprocessing included Z-score normalization and time-frequency transformation of the seismic signals.

We evaluated several models, including LSTM, LSTM-FCN, LSTM with an attention block, a hybrid CNN-Vision Transformer (CNN-ViT) neural networks, and XGBoost. The evaluated models achieved F1-scores of 0.92 (LSTM-based), 0.94 (XGBoost), and 0.96 (CNN-ViT), with comparable performance for MORC-only, VRAC-only, and combined datasets.

Furthermore, we combined data from the MORC and VRAC stations with records from the OKC station in a multimodal approach (37,561 events). Despite differences in instrumentation (e.g. lower corner periods of 120 s versus 30 s), the models achieved consistently high performance, with F1-scores ranging from 0.92 to 0.96 (CNN-ViT model yielding the best results).

These results demonstrate that machine learning models represent a promising step toward automated seismic event classification and more efficient seismic signal processing.

How to cite: Skotnica, M., Pecha, M., Pazdírková, J., Rušajová, J., and Rieznikov, B.: Machine learning-based seismic event classification at selected stations of the Czech Regional Seismic Network, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13017, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13017, 2026.

EGU26-13268 | ECS | Orals | NH4.8

Analysis of Foreshocks and Aftershocks in a microseismic sequence in Switzerland using Explainable AI 

Laura Laurenti, Verena Melanie Simon, Tania Andrea Toledo Zambrano, Toni Kraft, Men-Andrin Meier, Michele Magrini, Francesco Marrocco, Gabriele Paoletti, Elisa Tinti, and Chris Marone

Fault zone properties evolve throughout the seismic cycle, reflecting variations in stress conditions and progressive damage. Recent studies applying explainable machine learning to the 2016–2017 Norcia, central Italy, earthquake sequence have demonstrated that these temporal variations can be detected directly from seismic waveforms (Laurenti et al. 2024 doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54153-w). Here, we extend this approach to investigate whether similar signatures can be identified at a different spatial and magnitude scale.

In this work, we study a microseismic sequence close to the village Diemtigen in central Switzerland that occurred between April 2014 to September 2015. The dataset includes 4 main events with magnitudes between ML 2.7 and 3.2, along with the earthquakes recorded before and after each main event. The high-resolution dataset was assembled using template-matching analysis (Simon et al., 2021 doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093783).

We train a convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify foreshocks and aftershocks, and we use SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to interpret the results. The CNN is trained on spectrograms derived from raw waveforms. SHAP provides pixel-level attribution maps for each spectrogram, allowing us to identify which frequency-time components contribute most to the predictions. The CNN distinguishes between seismic traces before and after a main event, even if the waveform is pure seismic noise, without any earthquake recording. When classifying earthquake traces, SHAP analysis highlights key features in foreshocks in correspondence to the P-S arrival in the frequency range of 30-40 Hz. This observation is consistent with previous results from the Norcia earthquake sequence (Magrini et al. 2026 doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-10185-3_25), where the same method identified comparable time-frequency features associated with foreshock activity.

This framework offers new physics-based insight into the evolution of fault zones. It demonstrates the potential of Explainable AI to complement classical earthquake sequence analysis by revealing subtle, physically meaningful signatures directly from seismic data, and thereby bridging data-driven approaches with seismological understanding.

How to cite: Laurenti, L., Simon, V. M., Toledo Zambrano, T. A., Kraft, T., Meier, M.-A., Magrini, M., Marrocco, F., Paoletti, G., Tinti, E., and Marone, C.: Analysis of Foreshocks and Aftershocks in a microseismic sequence in Switzerland using Explainable AI, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13268, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13268, 2026.

The b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law is crucial for modern hazard models and seismicity forecasting. It quantifies the relative frequency of small earthquakes vs. infrequent large events. A growing number of studies suggest that the b-value changes with factors such as time (Gulia et al., 2018), differential stress (Scholz, 2015), and thermal regime (Nishikawa and Ide, 2014). However, translating the knowledge of such b-value variation into measurable  improvements of earthquake forecasting capabilities has not been convincingly achieved yet (e.g., Iturrieta et al., 2024).

In this work, we investigate whether a temporally changing b-value can improve our ability to forecast future magnitudes. For this, we implement a method to estimate temporally and spatially changing b-values, with a given time- and length-scale, together with a measure of how strong the variation is (b-significant, Mirwald et al., 2024). Further, we develop a method to evaluate the information gain (IG) that is more robust in the presence of short-term aftershock incompleteness.

We apply these methods to the 2016-2017 central Italy earthquake sequence, using a machine-learning-enhanced earthquake catalog containing >900k events (Tan et al., 2021). Specifically, we first estimate the optimal temporal, spatial, and combined spatiotemporal scales for forecasting future seismicity using the first half of the dataset. Using the second half of the dataset, we then assess pseudoprospectively if a varying b-value, estimated with the parameters obtained in the first step , results in a positive information gain compared to a stationary reference model.

References

Gulia, L., Rinaldi, A.P., Tormann, T., Vannucci, G., Enescu, B., Wiemer, S., 2018. The Effect of a Mainshock on the Size Distribution of the Aftershocks. Geophysical Research Letters 45, 13,277-13,287. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080619

Iturrieta, P., Bayona, J.A., Werner, M.J., Schorlemmer, D., Taroni, M., Falcone, G., Cotton, F., Khawaja, A.M., Savran, W.H., Marzocchi, W., 2024. Evaluation of a Decade-Long Prospective Earthquake Forecasting Experiment in Italy. Seismological Research Letters 95, 3174–3191. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220230247

Mirwald, A., Mizrahi, L., Wiemer, S., 2024. How to b -Significant When Analyzing b -Value Variations. Seismological Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240190

Nishikawa, T., Ide, S., 2014. Earthquake size distribution in subduction zones linked to slab buoyancy. Nature Geosci 7, 904–908. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2279

Scholz, C.H., 2015. On the stress dependence of the earthquake b value. Geophysical Research Letters 42, 1399–1402. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062863

Tan, Y.J., Waldhauser, F., Ellsworth, W.L., Zhang, M., Zhu, W., Michele, M., Chiaraluce, L., Beroza, G.C., Segou, M., 2021. Machine-Learning-Based High-Resolution Earthquake Catalog Reveals How Complex Fault Structures Were Activated during the 2016–2017 Central Italy Sequence. The Seismic Record 1, 11–19. https://doi.org/10.1785/0320210001

 

How to cite: Mirwald, A., Mizrahi, L., Meier, M.-A., and Wiemer, S.: Can temporally and spatially varying b-values improve earthquake forecasts? Insights from a machine-learning-enhanced catalog in central Italy., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13557, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13557, 2026.

In previous studies (Rotondi et al., Geophys J Int 2022) we examined the seismic sequences related to the strong earthquakes that occurred in central Italy at L'Aquila in 2009 and at Amatrice-Norcia in 2016, estimating the q-exponential probability distribution of the magnitude. Specifically, we considered events with Mw 2+ recorded in the intervals (2005-2009) for the L’Aquila case and (2014-2018) for the Amatrice-Norcia case in order to explore the link between changes in magnitude distribution and various  seismic phases.
The temporal variations were noted in the values of the Tsallis entropy and of the corresponding q entropic index estimate when we evaluated them on time windows with a fixed number of data, that shift at each new event, making inference according to Bayesian MCMC methods (Rotondi et al., Seismol Res Lett 2025). These analyses revealed a link between changes in q and different phases of seismic activity, with low q values potentially marking the preparatory phase preceding strong events.
In the present work, this approach is extended by analyzing all seismic events recorded in Central Italy between 2005 and 2024 as a single unified sequence, and drawing data both from the Italian Seismological Instrumental and Parametric Database (ISIDe) and from the HOmogenized instRUmental Seismic catalog (HORUS), which provides more accurate and homogeneous moment magnitude estimates.
Our goal is to determine whether the temporal variations in Tsallis entropy and its parameter q identified in our previous work truly act as both sufficient and necessary precursory signals of strong earthquakes. It turns out that variations in the q-index alone are not a sufficiently reliable seismic precursor, as low q values may not be followed by strong events.
However, a more reliable identification of periods of heightened seismic activity is achieved by jointly analyzing q and the parameter β, which is physically related to the expected released energy. In particular, the correlation between q and β evaluated through a moving correlation analysis allows the identification of periods of intense seismic activity. A persistent and significant decrease in q, combined with a positive correlation between q and β, suggests the onset of a preparatory phase for an impending seismic event. The use of the HORUS catalog has further strengthened the significance of these conclusions.
This research is supported by ICSC National Research Centre for High Performance Computing, Big Data and Quantum Computing (CN00000013, CUP B93C22000620006) within the European Union-NextGenerationEU program.

How to cite: Varini, E., Rotondi, R., and González Fuentes, A.: Tracking seismic regime changes in Central Italy (2005-2024) through variations in the parameters of the q-exponential magnitude distribution, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13822, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13822, 2026.

       In January 2025, the area between Santorini and Amorgos experienced the onset of intense seismic activity, with more than 8,500 seismic events of local magnitude ML ≥ 1.5 recorded, and a maximum‑magnitude event of Mw = 5.2. The swarm developed within a complex seismotectonic regime and attracted significant scientific interest because of its proximity to densely populated islands.

In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal evolution and statistical properties of the seismic swarm to better understand the underlying physical processes, using a dataset extracted from the high-resolution catalogue developed by Fountoulakis et al. (2025), covering the period from 27/01/2025 to 04/03/2025 and including seismic events of magnitude ML ≥ 1.5. The seismic activity initiated beneath the Santorini caldera and progressively migrated northeast towards the Kolumbo submarine volcano and the offshore region of Amorgos, following a NE–SW-trending extensional fault system approximately 60 km long.

    The spatiotemporal analysis revealed two distinct phases of activity, separated by a short transition period (Zaccagnino et al., 2025). The primary phase, from 1 to 9 February 2025, is characterised by rapid spatial expansion and an abrupt increase in the seismicity rate. The secondary phase, from 11 February to 4 March 2025, shows a more coherent migration pattern and a normal decay in the seismicity rate. Using non-additive statistical physics, we estimated the entropic parameters of the inter-event times and distances for both phases and found that they were well described by q-exponential distributions, with entropic parameters qT=1.15, Tq=3.453sec (R2=0.953), qD=0.8 and Dq=4.225Km (R2=0.998) for the primary phase, and qT=1.54, Tq=4.357sec (R2=0.924) and qD=0.72, Dq=8.791Km (R2=0.999) for the secondary phase. These results demonstrate that the 2025 Santorini Amorgos seismic sequence was governed by a non‑additive dynamics, with distinct physical characteristics between the two phases of activity.

References 

Fountoulakis, I., Evangelidis, C. P. (2025). The 2024–2025 seismic sequence in the Santorini-Amorgos region: Insights into volcano-tectonic activity through high-resolution seismic monitoring. Seismica, 4 (1). https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v4i1.1663

Zaccagnino, D., Michas, D., Telesca, L., Vallianatos, F. (2025). Precursory patterns, evolution and physical interpretation of the 2025 Santorini-Amorgos seismic sequence, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 671, 119656. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2025.119656.

How to cite: Vallianatos, F. and Pavlou, K.: Spatiotemporal pattern of the Santorini - Amorgos 2025 seismic sequence in terms of non additive statistical mechanics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13885, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13885, 2026.

EGU26-16116 | ECS | Posters on site | NH4.8

Earthquake Catalog Declustering in Southern California Using a Probabilistic Random Forest Approach 

Aditi Seal and Niptika Jana

 

Several machine learning algorithms have been developed for earthquake catalog declustering and have demonstrated high accuracy, particularly for the well-studied Southern California region. This study applies a machine learning–based Probabilistic Random Forest (PRF) approach to earthquake declustering and compares its performance with that of the Random Forest (RF) method in the Southern California region by introducing noise into the dataset. Although the Southern California dataset is of high quality due to a dense seismic network, inherent observational and instrumental noise can still affect model performance. Five features are considered, each describing a different aspect of the space–time–magnitude interactions inherent in seismicity. The rescaled time (T*) represents the temporal interval between consecutive seismic events, while the rescaled distance (R*) quantifies their spatial separation. The magnitude difference is expressed as Δmj = mi − mj, where i denotes the nearest neighbor, and generally attains larger values when event j is an aftershock of a stronger mainshock. The number of siblings refers to the count of events that share the same nearest neighbor as event j, with higher values indicating multiple aftershocks associated with a common parent event. The number of offspring denotes the number of subsequent events that identify event j as their nearest neighbor, thereby reflecting its triggering potential. For training and testing the RF and PRF algorithms, the original dataset was supplied to the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for parameter estimation using the maximum likelihood method. Based on the estimated parameters, 100 different realizations of the combined background–cluster labeled dataset were generated using the thinning algorithm. Background events were labeled as “0”, whereas clustered events were labeled as “1” in the synthetic dataset. Three types of feature noise are introduced to assess model robustness: Type-I applies uniform Gaussian noise across all objects and features, Type-II assigns different noise levels to randomly grouped objects and features, and Type-III applies independent noise levels to training and testing datasets. Noise magnitudes are controlled by feature-wise standard deviations and an overall noise factor, with noisy values sampled from Gaussian distributions. For the synthetic datasets, figure illustrates the difference in declustering accuracy between the Probabilistic Random Forest (PRF) and standard Random Forest (RF) models across the three types of noise. For Type I noise, the maximum accuracy improvement is approximately 2%, while Type II noise shows an increase of around 2.5%. Type III noise, which represents a more complex noise scenario, exhibits a moderate accuracy gain of about 1.5%. For the real seismic datasets, the accuracy differences between PRF and RF are generally higher. As shown in figure, Type I noise leads to an accuracy improvement of nearly 2%, Type II noise also shows an enhancement of about 2%, while Type III noise, representing the most complex scenario, exhibits a substantial improvement of nearly 6%. The results demonstrate that as noise complexity increases particularly when the correlation within the noise becomes weaker, the PRF model consistently outperforms the standard RF classification.

 

How to cite: Seal, A. and Jana, N.: Earthquake Catalog Declustering in Southern California Using a Probabilistic Random Forest Approach, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16116, 2026.

EGU26-16529 | Posters on site | NH4.8

ST-DBSCAN vs Window-Based Methods: A Comparative Cluster Analysis of the New Zealand Earthquake Catalog 

Ester Piegari, Stefania Gentili, and Letizia Caravella

Seismic catalogs combine background seismicity driven by tectonic loading with clustered earthquakes that reveal stress transfer and fault interactions. Both components are essential for seismic hazard models, which require accurate declustering.

Traditionally, declustering relies on window-based methods widely used in operational seismology for their simplicity and real-time efficiency. However, these methods suffer from rigid geometric constraints, depend on mainshock identification, and are highly sensitive to parameter choices, which may lead to over- or underestimation of earthquake cluster size. Machine learning-based approaches can mitigate these limitations by adapting flexibly to data patterns without rigid geometric or mainshock assumptions. Density-based algorithms such as DBSCAN and OPTICS identify spatial clusters effectively but struggle with spatiotemporal aftershock sequences because they treat time independently from space. ST-DBSCAN addresses this by using separate spatial and temporal radii, enabling flexible space-time clustering critical for aftershock analysis.

In this comparative study, we applied both approaches – ST-DBSCAN and window-based methods – to the New Zealand earthquake catalog to highlight the strengths and limitations of each, analyzing 15 overlapping clusters (>100 events, centroids <10 km apart). We found that ST-DBSCAN better captures fine-scale structures, whereas window-based methods produce more compact large-scale groupings. We analyze in detail the 2010–2013 Canterbury–Christchurch sequence, validating cluster membership against an independent dataset of approximately 150 earthquakes (Mw > 3.5), which reveals methodological differences in spatiotemporal resolution.

How to cite: Piegari, E., Gentili, S., and Caravella, L.: ST-DBSCAN vs Window-Based Methods: A Comparative Cluster Analysis of the New Zealand Earthquake Catalog, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16529, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16529, 2026.

EGU26-16933 | Orals | NH4.8

Virtual Real-Time (VRT) forecasting of the Kamchatka 29 July 2025 mega earthquake (Mw8.8) based on foreshock activity 

Ioanna Triantafyllou, Alexey Zavyalov, Gerassimos Papadopoulos, Constantinos Siettos, and Konstantinos Spiliotis

Foreshocks, aftershocks, and swarms are common types of seismicity clusters. Foreshock patterns are recognized as of special value for earthquake forecasting. Beforehand discrimination of foreshocks from other clusters and from background seismicity is of great importance for short-term hazard assessment, but it remains a challenge. A promising prospect is that different seismicity clusters are characterized by distinct patterns in space, time, and magnitude, thus reflecting different underlying geophysical processes. In foreshocks, the count number increases at the inverse of time, but usually an activity lull is observed a few days before the mainshock; the b-value drops, while epicenters usually move towards the mainshock epicenter. In aftershocks, the epicenters expand away from the mainshock epicenter, the event count decreases exponentially with time, and the b-value increases. Swarms are not associated with specific patterns of epicentral and temporal distributions, while the b-value usually increases. On-time identification of statistically significant seismicity changes could be supportive towards real-time discrimination between different types of clusters. This approach was tested with the seismic sequence of the Mw8.8 megathrust mainshock that ruptured the subduction interface off eastern Kamchatka on 29 July 2025, based on classic earthquake statistics and advanced complex network tools. On 20 July 2025 an earthquake of Mw7.4 occurred; many smaller shocks followed. However, the foreshock sequence was only recognized a posteriori. We investigated if the foreshock sequence could be detectable beforehand. To examine this crucial issue, we introduced the concept of Virtual Real-Time (VRT) analysis, which is different from usual retrospective analysis because VRT utilizes incomplete knowledge of the earthquake sequence, i.e., the catalogue and other data available only up to each point of time T of the ongoing seismic sequence. This means the analysis is performed as if we were in the actual conditions of the sequence. VRT analysis was combined with a decision matrix based on the different patterns of different clusters and on testing appropriate null hypotheses. Considering 20 July 2025 as Τf=1 day, the VRT analysis detected the transition from the state of background seismicity to that of foreshocks on Τf=3 (23 July), if not earlier, and persistently on every subsequent day prior to the mainshock up to Τf=9 days (29 July). The imminence of an even larger earthquake became evident from the foreshock lull in about Τf=7 days, while its magnitude was approximated by an empirical relationship between magnitude and the area covered by the foreshocks. Setting the mega earthquake at time Τa=1 day, the transition from the state of foreshocks to that of aftershocks was detectable at Ta=2 days and at every subsequent day, thus signifying that the mega earthquake was the mainshock. All seismicity changes from one state to the other were found to be highly significant. The results obtained underline the important capabilities for earthquake forecasting from the recognition of foreshocks beforehand. The data used in this work were obtained from the large-scale research facilities «Seismic infrasound array for monitoring Arctic cryolithozone and continuous seismic monitoring of the Russian Federation, neighboring territories, and the world» (https://ckp-rf.ru/usu/507436/). 

How to cite: Triantafyllou, I., Zavyalov, A., Papadopoulos, G., Siettos, C., and Spiliotis, K.: Virtual Real-Time (VRT) forecasting of the Kamchatka 29 July 2025 mega earthquake (Mw8.8) based on foreshock activity, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16933, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16933, 2026.

EGU26-16943 | Posters on site | NH4.8

Multi-Parameter Controls on Megathrust Earthquakes Revealed by Explainable Artificial Intelligence in a Complex Orogenic System 

Rohit Ghosh, Priyank Pathak, and William Kumar Mohanty

The North-Eastern Himalaya, Indo-Burma Ranges, and Andaman-Nicobar together form one of the most seismically active and structurally intricate tectonic regions in the world, hosting numerous Mw ≥ 6.5 earthquakes throughout recorded history. Understanding the physical controls for the occurrence of such high-magnitude events is vital for improving hazard assessment and the prediction of possible regions of future earthquakes. Conventional methods often struggle to integrate a large number of geological, geodetic, and geophysical factors that influence earthquake generation, as all these factors together play a role in masking and amplifying the effects of one another. In this study, we address this challenge by developing a multi-parameter, explainable artificial intelligence (XAI)-based approach to identify the dominant factors influencing megathrust earthquakes in this region. We have used a clustering technique to compile 16 different parameters, like gravity anomalies, plate convergence rate, accumulated strain, sediment cover, slab geometry, crustal thickness, slab age, and seismic attenuation factor, to form a comprehensive input to the model. Since the study region represents two different tectonic setups- continent-continent collision zone in the Himalayan and the Andaman Arakan ocean-continent subduction zone in the Indo-Burmese ranges, therefore the dataset was separated based on their tectonic characteristics. A Fully Connected Neural Network (FCN) has been trained and deployed to classify earthquakes into Class 1 (Mw ≥ 6.5) and Class 0 (Mw < 6.5). An XAI technique, Layerwise Relevance Propagation (LRP), was applied to determine which of the parameters are heavily influencing the classification or model's predictions. LRP is an XAI method that traces a model’s prediction backward through the network and redistributes the output score with respect to input features to show which parts contributed the most.

LRP research reveals distinct and geologically consistent elements that determine the major players for the occurrence of earthquakes in the two tectonic regimes. In the continent–continent collision zone, composite strain, composite plate convergence velocity, gravity anomalies (Bouguer and free-air), and slab depth emerge as the dominant parameters influencing earthquake classification. Conversely, the oceanic subduction regime is primarily controlled by sediment thickness, gravity gradient, slab age, along with composite velocity and composite strain. Notably, higher values of composite velocity and composite strain are consistently associated with the occurrence of megathrust earthquakes in both tectonic settings, highlighting their fundamental role in strain accumulation and seismic rupture processes. The significance of sediment thickness may be understood by its influence on the roughness of the subduction interface. A thicker sediment cover makes subduction smoother by making the slab bathymetric imperfections less noticeable, whereas a thinner sediment cover makes the interface rougher, which causes more strain to build up along the megathrust. This process aligns with the frequent occurrence of megathrust earthquakes in the area, such as the 2004 Great Sumatra earthquake. The proposed model successfully captures this relationship between sediment thickness, strain accumulation, and seismic potential.

This first-order study demonstrates that combining XAI with multi-parameter tectonic datasets establishes a robust framework for identifying and understanding the primary causes of seismicity in complex orogenic/geodynamic systems.

How to cite: Ghosh, R., Pathak, P., and Mohanty, W. K.: Multi-Parameter Controls on Megathrust Earthquakes Revealed by Explainable Artificial Intelligence in a Complex Orogenic System, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16943, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16943, 2026.

EGU26-17786 | Orals | NH4.8

Correcting the exponentiality test applied to binned earthquake magnitudes 

Ilaria Spassiani and Angela Stallone

The Lilliefors test is commonly applied to assess the exponentiality of earthquake magnitudes and, consequently, to estimate the minimum threshold above which seismic events are completely recorded (the completeness magnitude). In theory, the test assumes continuously distributed exponential data; however, real earthquake catalogs typically report magnitudes with finite resolution, resulting in a discrete (geometric) distribution. To address this mismatch, standard practice adds uniform noise to the data prior to testing for exponentiality. 

In this work, we analytically demonstrate that uniform dithering cannot recover the exponential distribution from its geometric counterpart. Instead, it produces a piecewise-constant residual lifetime distribution, whose deviation from the exponential model becomes increasingly detectable as the catalog size or bin width increases, as confirmed also by numerical experiments. We further prove that an exponential distribution truncated over the bin interval is the exact noise distribution required to correctly restore the continuous exponential distribution over the whole magnitude range. Numerical tests also show that this correction yields Lilliefors rejection rates consistent with the significance level for all bin widths and catalog sizes. 

Correcting the exponentiality test for binned magnitudes according to these results ensures a more reliable estimation of the completeness threshold, particularly in the case of high-resolution earthquake catalogs.

How to cite: Spassiani, I. and Stallone, A.: Correcting the exponentiality test applied to binned earthquake magnitudes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17786, 2026.

EGU26-18336 | ECS | Orals | NH4.8

RECOVAR: An unsupervised deep learning approach to seismic event detection by training on continuous waveform data 

Ege Adıgüzel, Onur Efe, Arkadas Ozakin, Ali Ozgun Konca, and Semih Ergintav

State-of-the-art machine learning models for seismic event detection, such as EQTransformer and PhaseNet, use supervised learning, which requires labeled event catalogs and curated waveforms. This dependence creates two fundamental limitations: the cost of preparing  high-quality datasets, and an annotation bias which limits the model training to event types well represented in existing catalogs. Unsupervised deep learning has the potential to overcome these limitations, but despite its prevalence in other domains, this approach remains rather under-explored for the problem of seismic event detection.

We present RECOVAR, an unsupervised deep learning method that trains directly on continuous waveform data, requiring no labeling or catalog preparation. The architecture consists of an ensemble of convolutional autoencoders, each trained independently. Detection exploits how these latent representations differ for signal versus noise: coherent seismic arrivals produce convergent representations with high cross-covariance, while stochastic noise produces uncorrelated representations. 

Since continuous recordings are dominated by noise, a naive approach to training on continuous waveforms ends up creating a model that focuses excessively on representing noise, and results in quite good but suboptimal event detection. We introduce a dynamic training pipeline that preferentially resamples low-scoring segments using the model's own cross-covariance scores, which results in strong detection performance.

RECOVAR achieves event detection ROC AUC scores of 0.97-0.99 on the STEAD and INSTANCE benchmarks, comparable to PhaseNet and EQTransformer. We demonstrate a regional application to the 2019 Istanbul Silivri earthquake sequence, training directly on continuous waveforms without any catalog preparation. We show the utility of RECOVAR as a post processing tool that filters picks by supervised methods, retaining 99% of true picks by PhaseNet while filtering half of the false positives, and with less conservative settings, removing 83% of false positives while retaining 84% of true detections.

RECOVAR provides an unsupervised deep learning alternative for seismic detection. Training directly on continuous data without labels avoids the annotation bias that is inherent to supervised methods, which potentially opens the door to detecting rare event types absent from established catalogs. As demonstrated by its post-filter performance, RECOVAR also integrates naturally within existing detection pipelines.

How to cite: Adıgüzel, E., Efe, O., Ozakin, A., Konca, A. O., and Ergintav, S.: RECOVAR: An unsupervised deep learning approach to seismic event detection by training on continuous waveform data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18336, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18336, 2026.

EGU26-21142 | ECS | Posters on site | NH4.8

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Background Seismicity Using Gaussian Processes 

Yuanyuan Niu and Jiancang Zhuang

The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, a widely used self-exciting, marked Hawkes process, has become a standard tool in statistical seismology. However, the standard ETAS formulation assumes a stationary background seismicity rate and therefore lacks the ability to capture the spatiotemporal structure of background seismicity. In this study, we extend the GP-ETAS model proposed by Molkenthin (2022) to incorporate a spatiotemporally varying background rate. We use nonparametric Gaussian process (GP) priors to describe spatiotemporal background seismicity and estimate them using a Bayesian inference framework with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques. We apply the extended GP-ETAS model to regions affected by Slow Slip Events (SSEs), which are known to generate stress changes that are both spatially and temporally heterogeneous, significantly influencing background seismicity patterns. The extended GP-ETAS model enables quantitative spatiotemporal analysis of SSE-driven variations in background seismicity.

How to cite: Niu, Y. and Zhuang, J.: Spatiotemporal Modeling of Background Seismicity Using Gaussian Processes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21142, 2026.

EGU26-21656 | ECS | Orals | NH4.8

A decade-long pseudo-prospective evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS next-day seismicity forecasts 

Francesco Serafini, José A. Bayona, Fabio Silva, Kevin Milner, Ned Field, and Maximilian J. Werner

Rigorous evaluation of earthquakes forecasts is a crucial step in understanding and improving the capabilities of earthquakes forecasting models. The UCERF3-ETAS model is currently the most advanced seismicity model combining a long-term seismicity model incorporating hypotheses of fault rupture dynamics and elastic rebounding with an Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model for short-term seismicity. UCERF3-ETAS has also been used on demand for operational earthquake forecasting of important seismic sequences like the 2019 Ridgecrest one. Here, we have evaluated a very large database of UCERF3-ETAS next-day forecasts for California from 1 August 2008 to 31 August 2018. Each next-day forecast is composed of 100,000 synthetic catalogs generated by the model. The synthetic catalogs comprise events with magnitude $M_w \geq 2.5$, start at 00:00:00 UTC, last 24 hours, and include all events prior to midnight in the history for generating the next day’s forecasts. We evaluate the consistency of the model against 17,655 $M_w \geq 2.5$ earthquakes that occurred in California in the period 2007-2018 using the statistical tests for catalogue based forecasts developed by the Collaboratory Study of Earthquake Predictability. We find that the number of events provided by the forecast is generally consistent with the observations, especially during relevant seismic sequences such as the $7.2 M_w$ El-Mayor Cucapah, while swarm type sequences are more challenging. The magnitude distribution is also consistent overall. We also study the spatial evolution of the magnitude distribution to highlight regions where the model is expecting large earthquakes to happen and find that they are coherent with observed seismicity. Finally, we compare UCERF3-ETAS forecasts against fully prospective next-day forecasts produced by 27 different models operated by CSEP during between 2007 and 2018, and collected in a openly available database which constitutes a natural benchmark for the problem. We find that UCERF3-ETAS improves upon older models by providing positive information gains in most periods. The information gain tends to be zero or negative during swarms when UCERF3-ETAS is compared against models having a non-parametric component signaling possible benefits of including one to better describe this type of seismic sequences. 

How to cite: Serafini, F., Bayona, J. A., Silva, F., Milner, K., Field, N., and Werner, M. J.: A decade-long pseudo-prospective evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS next-day seismicity forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21656, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21656, 2026.

EGU26-156 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Reconstruction of exhumation history along magma-poor rifted margins - Insights from numerical models 

João Pedro Macedo Silva, Victor Sacek, Gianreto Manatschal, and Carlos Eduardo Ganade

Continental rifting gives rise to margins with variable magmatic budgets, producing endmembers that range from magma-poor to magma-rich. At some magma-poor rifted margins like Australia-Antarctica conjugate margins and fossil margins seafloor preserved in Western Alps, portions of the lithospheric mantle were exhumed to the surface during the late phases of rifting. However, the key factors controlling this exhumation remain poorly constrained. From thermomechanical numerical scenarios, we investigated the controlling factors of the mantle exhumation process during rifting by varying crustal thickness, lithospheric mantle structure and rifting velocity. The results show that lower crustal strength and consequent lithospheric coupling drive the formation of exhumed mantle domains at magma-poor rifted margins. The exhumation process distributes different portions of lithospheric mantle along the rifted margins where at the most distal regions corresponding to initially deeper portions of lithospheric mantle. Factor as crustal thickness and mantle lithospheric structure affected the width of exhumed mantle domains. We observe that the stretching processes can exhume mantle particles from different lithospheric depths, sampling both shallow particles near the base of the crust and deeper portions of the lithosphere, especially in scenarios with an initially high degree of coupling between crust and lithospheric mantle. We also tracked the P-T-t paths of lithospheric mantle particles and our results agree with P-T-t paths from Iberian Margin, Diamantina Zone at SW Australian Margin and also from fossil rifted margins of the Western Tethys in the Alps and P-T estimation data for exhumed mantle samples from Newfoundland Margin and Terre Adélie seamount B at Antarctic Margin showing the potential of numerical models to explore the exhumation process in the context of magma-poor rifted margins.

How to cite: Macedo Silva, J. P., Sacek, V., Manatschal, G., and Ganade, C. E.: Reconstruction of exhumation history along magma-poor rifted margins - Insights from numerical models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-156, 2026.

EGU26-979 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Flat Moho beneath orogens and extensional regions: What controls it? 

Ömer Bodur, Oğuz Hakan Göğüş, Elif Nihan Çavdar, and Gökhan Çalınak

Flat Moho is a characteristic feature beneath extended continental lithosphere and orogenic plateaus; however, the physical processes that govern their formation remain poorly understood. In particular, the mechanical conditions required for lower crustal flow to effectively suppress Moho deflection are still debated. It has been proposed that lower crustal flow may facilitate lateral mass redistribution, thereby limiting Moho deflection and Moho relief during extension. Here, we compare seismological (receiver function) and gravity data and geodynamic models to identify the controls of Moho variation across various tectonic regions. Namely, we perform two suites of two-dimensional visco-plastic numerical models using the finite element code ASPECT with systematically vary (1) the minimum effective viscosity of the lower crust, and (2) its brittle strength, represented by cohesion. Each model simulates the extension of a 50 km-thick crust overlying a previously thinned lithospheric mantle, allowing us to isolate the rheological controls on Moho geometry and crustal deformation. Our results show that the primary factor governing Moho topography is the viscosity of the lower crust. When the lower crust is weak (≤ 10¹⁸ Pa·s), the viscous flow efficiently redistributes the material, leading to diffuse deformation and flat Moho (ΔMoho < 5 km). In contrast, high-viscosity models (≥ 10²¹ Pa·s) exhibit localized crustal thinning and pronounced Moho deflection, with relief up to 50 km and slopes exceeding 0.04 km/km. Varying the cohesion of the upper crust influences the distribution of brittle strain, but has a limited effect on Moho morphology. We conclude that flat Moho geometries arise from the integrated mechanical response of the crustal column where a sufficiently weak lower crust accommodates crust-mantle decoupling. These findings provide a quantitative framework to interpret observed flat Moho patterns in extensional settings such as the western Anatolia, the Basin and Range Province, and Tibetan Plateau.

How to cite: Bodur, Ö., Göğüş, O. H., Çavdar, E. N., and Çalınak, G.: Flat Moho beneath orogens and extensional regions: What controls it?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-979, 2026.

EGU26-1035 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Neotectonics of the Central Kenya Rift 

Daniel Botha, Alastair Sloan, Simon Kübler, and Beth Kahle

The Central Kenya RIft (CKR) is one of the fastest deforming sections of the Eastern African Rift System (EARS). Extensive tectonic research has been performed on the rift in northern and southern Kenya, but the modern tectonic geomorphology of the CKR remains understudied. Existing fault maps show a change in the orientation of the EARS within the CKR, although faults have not been mapped in detail with modern techniques. Despite the numerous fault scarps that offset the rift floor, few large earthquakes have been recorded in the recent past, with the exception of a MS 6.9 event in 1928. Maturing rifts demonstrate a shift from border fault seismicity to increased aseismic deformation dsitributed along intra-rift faults. This study aims to map active fault scarps within the CKR to better understand the modern tectonics, which may give insights into seismic hazard for an area with a high population growth rate. Rigorous examination of the high resolution TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to formulate a digital fault database, which includes attributes about individual fault lengths and orientations. The NNW-SSE orientated CKR represents an intersection between NNE-SSW orientated EARS rifts to the north and south, and older NNW-SSE orientated structural fabrics. While the CKR itself shows a traditional mature rift morphology containing a developed inner graben with recent volcanism, the junction between the CKR and Northern Kenya Rift appears to be less mature. The 1928 earthquake, which occurred along a border fault in this junction, challenges the theory of axial strain concentration in an aging rift. Calculations on the balance of extension accommodated by larger border faults vs younger intra-rift grid faults allows for the possibility of continued border fault slip. The lack of large earthquakes in the CKR itself suggests an aseismic model to describe deformation, while seismic hazard appears to be greater in the junctions between rift segments of alternate orientations. 

How to cite: Botha, D., Sloan, A., Kübler, S., and Kahle, B.: Neotectonics of the Central Kenya Rift, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1035, 2026.

EGU26-1953 | Orals | TS2.1

Diagnostic criteria for mapping rifted margin architecture using seismic reflection profiles 

Gianreto Manatschal and Gwenn Peron-Pinvidic

Rifted margins result from the complex interaction between tectonic, magmatic and sedimentary processes. Conceptual models explaining their evolution have changed considerably over the last few decades, moving from simple stretching models to more complex polyphase rift models that distinguish between structural domains (proximal, necking, distal) and distinct rift modes. Advances in dynamic numerical modelling have made it possible to not only reproduce the predicted sequential evolution of rift modes and the related rift domains, but also to create complex 2D and even 3D computer-generated simulations, which must be compared with real world examples. While increasingly sophisticated 2D and 3D seismic images of rifted margins allow theoretically to rigorously test and calibrate the models, the problem resides that their geological interpretations are none unique. It is therefore more important than ever to develop a ‘protocol’ which allows for objective, verifiable, consistent and reproducible geological interpretations of seismic data.

 

Rifted margins present, indeed, first- and second-order diagnostic geometries and seismic facies that can be mapped on seismic reflection profiles. Our contribution aims to synthesise current knowledge on margin architecture and present a systematic approach to seismic interpretation, supported by representative “champion” seismic lines. For each domain, we describe the main structural and stratigraphic characteristics and provide diagnostic criteria commonly observable on seismic reflection profiles. Rather than revisiting the mechanisms of margin formation, we assess whether first- and second-order observational features capture the full range of architectures between existing endmember models. While using the magma-rich/magma-poor dichotomy aids communication, natural rift systems span a continuum of intermediate and hybrid configurations. Our approach accommodates this variability and promotes standardized, reproducible interpretations, allowing to close the loop between increasingly sophisticated modelling and imaging techniques and their testable, reproducible, across-scales coherent geological interpretation.

How to cite: Manatschal, G. and Peron-Pinvidic, G.: Diagnostic criteria for mapping rifted margin architecture using seismic reflection profiles, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1953, 2026.

Many rift-related triple-junctions from various geological periods have been previously investigated worldwide. Some of these large extensional lithospheric phenomena even involved complex circular configurations composed of numerous omnidirectionally spaced radial and arcuate elements, thereby having a general multi-junction character. Although pointing to close association of horizontal plate kinematics with centrally directed vertical updoming as two conjugated significant geodynamic phenomena, such annular dichotomy of features penetrating and segmenting the surrounding upper Earth's mass has yet been addressed only poorly.

Based on spatial analysis of regional topography and/or hydrography, an extensive Cenozoic circular structure (> 6,000 km in diameter) even including recently active tectonic elements appears to have developed in whole Europe and some adjacent areas of Africa and Asia centred at a common intersection point of the Upper Rhine Graben, Lower Rhine grabens (with significant Roer structure), Hessian grabens (involving Leine structure), and more distant Eger Graben current axes. The pervasive surface fracturing of both higher / lower topographic levels was taken into account (numerous concentric boundaries between mountain summit blocks visualized by closed contours / ubiquitous multi-arc- and fan-shaped geometries within piedmonts and lowlands indicated in continental river network, less along important block-bounding slopes, and locally on sea floor). The fairly regular annular lithospheric fragmentation is expressed by a wide-scale spectrum of features from general mountain or basin belt orientations through trends of circumferential, centrifugal, or centripetal river sections and corresponding valleys to consistent sets of sharp stream bends.

Using a similar research approach, several analogous circular phenomena were detected within the Red Sea rift system. Despite possible links to various known geometrically consistent geological structures including magma plumbings or mantle plumes, it is yet hard to determine the main evolutionary processes and the closer time constraints of the circular systems. Their role should be considered and discussed on a broad disciplinary basis, among others, because similar surface configurations seem to exist in different tectonic settings such as large uplifting basement massifs or arcuate orogenic belts and intermontane basins. An attempt to invoke related communication is made also by means of this contribution.

How to cite: Roštínský, P.: Rhine Graben rift system-related multi-junction and other analogs: Large-scale circular lithospheric segmentation indicated in regional topographic and hydrographic data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2582, 2026.

The massive Orphan Basin, offshore Newfoundland, preserves evidence of a complex, multiphase rift history influenced by structural inheritance tied to the Appalachian-Caledonian orogen. Despite recent advances in plate kinematic reconstructions of the Southern North Atlantic, the tectonic evolution of the Orphan Basin remains poorly constrained, largely due to limited seismic and well coverage. As a result, the contributions of structural constraints on deformation have been oversimplified, leading to the misrepresentation of their influence on continental breakup.

This study prioritizes the interpretation of recently available 2D seismic reflection datasets acquired by TGS/PGS and ION Geophysical, developing stratigraphic and structural constraints to inform plate kinematic modelling. An analysis of the spatial distribution of Jurassic to Early Cretaceous syn-rift sediments and the geometries of major fault systems provide new insights into rift migration and the temporal variability of strain localization in the Orphan Basin during continental breakup.

Seismic interpretation and fault analysis identify two temporally distinct hyperextended rift basins separated by a region of thick crust, highlighting the importance of mechanically rigid blocks, such as the Orphan Knoll, in focusing strain, controlling basin development, and influencing the timing and geometry of rift propagation. While previous reconstructions have represented extension within the Orphan Basin as continuous and uniform, our analysis indicates that strain was instead focused within discrete extensional corridors controlled by large detachment faults.

Using GPlates, these seismic constraints are integrated into a deformable plate tectonic reconstruction, refining the kinematic plate model of the Southern North Atlantic while improving its geological accuracy and reducing the reliance on uniform crustal stretching assumptions. The updated reconstruction aims to provide a significant step towards a reproducible analogue model for hyperextended rift basins during magma-poor continental breakup. 

How to cite: Nickson, T. and Welford, J. K.: Integrating Seismic Interpretation of the Orphan Basin, Offshore Newfoundland, with Deformable Plate Tectonic Modelling of the Southern North Atlantic, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3101, 2026.

Stretching of the crust, seafloor spreading, and volcanism commonly affect the overriding plate above retreating slabs in subduction settings. The Vavilov Basin (Tyrrhenian Sea) is a Pliocene–Quaternary back-arc basin formed in response to the eastward rollback of the Apennine–Tyrrhenian subduction system. The basin has a roughly triangular shape and it is bounded by major escarpments (e.g. the Selli Line) separating it from the continental margins (Cornaglia Terrace, De Marchi Seamount and Flavio Gioia Seamount). Its western sector is characterized by N–S–oriented ridges interpreted as the surface expression of basaltic magma injections during, or shortly after, mantle exhumation (e.g. the Gortani and the D’Ancona Ridges).

Near the centre of the basin, the Vavilov Volcano (VAV), a large volcanic edifice ~60 km long and ~32 km wide, rises from ~3600 m below sea level (b.s.l.) to a minimum depth of ~795 m b.s.l. The VAV consists of three main volcanic units: (i) west-tilted pillow lava flows below ~1500 m b.s.l., (ii) radial lava flows between ~1500 and 1000 m b.s.l., and (iii) scoriaceous lava flows from ~1000 m b.s.l. to the summit. K–Ar dating of pillow lavas sampled along the eastern flank at ~1000 m depth yields Pleistocene ages of 0.37 and 0.09 Ma, consistent with the observed magnetic pattern. Magnetic data show a positive anomaly over the shallow part of the volcano related to the Brunhes geomagnetic chron, and contrasting with negative anomalies on the outer flanks and surrounding basin.

Here we present an integrated magnetic and morphologic analysis of VAV aimed at constraining its internal plumbing system and the relationship with surface volcanic and tectonic structures. We develop an inverse magnetic model that images subsurface structural elements related to both an early spreading ridge and a later central volcanic system. Our results indicate that intervening intrusive ridges in small back-arc basins may evolve following a polyphasic evolution with a transition from fissural to central-type volcanism and developing a multi-level plumbing system. The VAV morphological asymmetry reflects an eastward migration of volcanic activity through time, possibly associated with asymmetric basin opening. The shallow plumbing system comprises: (a) an early NNE–SSW–elongated dike sheet feeding fissural volcanism along the summit ridge, and (b) a younger central magma reservoir beneath the summit feeding central vents. A NW–SE–oriented apophysis extending southeastward from the central reservoir likely supplied volcanic cones on the eastern flank.

 

How to cite: Cocchi, L., Muccini, F., Palmiotto, C., and Ventura, G.: Reconstructing the plumbing system of the Vavilov Seamount (southern Tyrrhenian Sea): insights into the transition from fissural to central-type volcanism back-arcs , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3400, 2026.

EGU26-4342 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Geological structure related to the Mienhua Submarine Volcano in southern Okinawa Trough from High-Resolution Sparker Seismic profiles  

Hsin-Wen Li, Shu-Kun Hsu, Lien-Kai Lin, and Ching-Hui Tsai

Located in the northern margin of the southern Okinawa Trough, the Mienhua Submarine Volcano (MSV) is probably formed during the post-collision of the former Taiwan orogeny. The MSV is accompanied by vigorous hydrothermal activities. To understand the related tectonic faults, volcanic intrusions, and hydrothermal activity of the MSV, we have collected several high-resolution sparker seismic profiles surrounding the MSV. Our results show that the east and west sides of the MSV show different features. In the east side, we have found unconformities, high-amplitude seismic reflectors, and acoustic blanking zones. The acoustic blanking zones indicate that hydrothermal fluid has penetrated the strata and migrated upwards and laterally. Many hydrothermal plumes are also found in the water column. In other words, hydrothermal activity is active in the eastern region. In contrast, in the west side of MSV, few unconformities or hydrothermal activities were found. Besides, large-scale mass-transport deposits (MTDs) are formed, possibly due to submarine landslides.

How to cite: Li, H.-W., Hsu, S.-K., Lin, L.-K., and Tsai, C.-H.: Geological structure related to the Mienhua Submarine Volcano in southern Okinawa Trough from High-Resolution Sparker Seismic profiles , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4342, 2026.

We present a new first-approach methodology, applicable to thermally re-equilibrated rifted margins, to determine margin crustal architecture and magmatic type from the TWTT of top basement of time-domain seismic reflection data. The method invokes Warner’s 10s Moho rule (Warner, 1987) to give the TWTT crustal basement thickness from top basement TWTT from which we determine crustal basement thickness. It does not require the Moho to be seismically imaged or sediment thickness to be known.

Determining rifted margin crustal thickness and assessing whether a margin is magma-normal, magma-starved or magma-rich is fundamental to understanding margin structure and formation processes. This is often a difficult task compounded by the absence of clear or unambiguous seismic Moho.

Warner observed that, for a thermally re-equilibrated margin, the Moho seismic reflection is approximately flat at ~10s TWTT and is constant irrespective of the complexity of geology above. Moho TWTT is at 10s for unthinned continental crust, oceanic crust, and for crust in between, and applies equally to magma-rich, magma-starved and magma-normal rifted margins.

We apply the new methodology using Warner’s 10s Moho rule to map crustal basement thickness for the Campos and Santos rifted margins offshore Brazil from TWTT of top basement observed on seismic reflection data. We show that the resulting map of crustal thickness determined from top basement TWTT shows a good correlation with that determined using gravity inversion.

Modelling shows that different magmatic-margin types have distinct shapes of top basement TWTT that is independent of sediment thickness. The lateral transition from downward-sloping to flat top basement TWTT corresponds to the oceanward taper of thinned continental crust to boxed-shaped oceanic crust, providing an estimate of the landward-limit of oceanic crust (LaLOC). Magma-starved margins show a step-up of top basement TWTT onto oceanic crust. For margins with magma, lateral inflections in the TWTT of base sediment provide information of the onset of magmatic-volcanic addition and the formation of hybrid crust consisting of thinned continental crust plus new magmatic crust. For magma-normal margins this lateral inflections of TWTT corresponds to the start of deep-water volcanics (SDRs) at 6-7s TWTT. For magma-rich margins (with sub-aerially erupted volcanic SDRs) this TWTT inflection occurs at 2-3s.

We interpret the top basement TWTT profiles on the Southern Campos Margin to indicate a slightly magma-poor margin. The thinnest crust occurs between thinned continental crust and normal-thickness oceanic crust, consistent with a simple isostatic model where maximum decompression melting to form oceanic crust does not occur until after continental crust separation.

On the SW Santos Margin, we interpret the top basement TWTT profiles to indicate a slightly magma-rich margin. A broad region separates the end of the crustal thinning taper and the LaLOC. A simple isostatic model can generate this top basement TWTT shape as a broad region of hybrid crust or thicker-than-normal early oceanic crust.

Top basement TWTT cannot reliably identify the margin domain transition between the necking zone and hyperextended crust. This transition coincides with the onset of normal decompression melting and the start of hybrid crust.

How to cite: Graça, M., Kusznir, N., and Manatschal, G.: Rifted Margin Crustal Architecture and Magmatic Type from Time-Domain Seismic Reflection Data Using the Warner 10 second Moho TWTT Rule: A New First-Approach Methodology , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4961, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4961, 2026.

The Newfoundland rifted margin (NLRM) exhibits complex lithospheric features, including failed rifts, continental ribbons, transfer zones, and along-strike segmentation. Although the spatial variability of these tectonic features is central to understanding the region’s tectonic evolution, their interactions and broader implications remain debated. In this study, drawing on an unprecedented deep multichannel seismic dataset, we interpret a grid of margin-scale seismic reflection profiles to examine the variability of crustal necking and rift domain architectures along the NLRM and the associated Orphan Basin–Flemish Pass failed rift. Our interpretation reveals asymmetrical crustal necking on the conjugate sides of the failed rift, consistent with published numerical modelling studies, which suggest that asymmetric rifting is an early-stage process, potentially occurring before the necking phase. We observe more gradual crustal necking in regions of thinned and inferred weaker crust. In contrast, more abrupt crustal necking is associated with areas of thicker, inferred stronger crust, where transcrustal faults extending to depths greater than 20 km are imaged. Mantle serpentinization interpreted beneath both the NLRM and the failed rift zone indicates that serpentinization is not contingent on rift success or failure but is primarily governed by rheology and the availability of transcrustal faults. For magma-poor rifted margins, in contrast to magma-assisted rifting, transcrustal faulting linked with mantle serpentinization appears to facilitate continental breakup. Our systematic mapping reveals pronounced across-strike and along-strike variations in rift domain distributions, predominantly controlled by inherited transfer zones that segment the margin and that range from localized to diffuse, accommodating extension and giving rise to alternating strong and weak margin segments.  

How to cite: Alehegn, W. N. and Welford, J. K.: Nature of Crustal Necking and Rift Domain Architecture Along the Newfoundland Margin, Eastern Canada: Improved Seismic Perspectives and Interpretational Uncertainties, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5349, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5349, 2026.

Tectonic inheritance often plays a significant role in the evolution from continental rifts to passive rifted margins in extensional settings. Continental ribbons, which constitute intact continental fragments that remain tethered to their parent plates within rift systems, can form through interacting propagating rifts in pristine lithosphere but can also represent the lasting manifestation of pre-rift lithospheric heterogeneity. In the southern North Atlantic rift system, which transects the vestiges of the older Paleozoic Appalachian-Caledonian orogen, large continental ribbons are plentiful, arguably more so than anywhere else in the entire Atlantic Ocean. The spatial distribution of these ribbons, wrenched away from the North American, European, and Iberian plates during Mesozoic rifting and breakup of the Pangean supercontinent, provides insights into the pre-rift orogenic architecture of the lithosphere. This complex inheritance would go on to influence strain partitioning and sedimentary basin evolution during subsequent rifting and extensional reactivation. Studying these key components of rift systems and their consequences is often complicated by sparse seismic coverage due to their limited resource potential and their more distal locations. Yet, the characterization of continental ribbons at the lithospheric scale is necessary for their faithful incorporation into basin and plate reconstructions. To that end, alternate and complementary geophysical methodologies, such as potential field analysis, are needed to infill sparse seismic constraints and properly capture the physical characteristics of these impactful features. In this presentation, I will discuss the continental ribbons of the southern North Atlantic, the methods used to characterize their attributes, their likely tectonic origins, and how this information can be used to improve and quantify their contribution to reconstructions of the region.

How to cite: Welford, J. K.: Continental ribbons within the southern North Atlantic rift system: attributes, origins, and consequences, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5429, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5429, 2026.

EGU26-5886 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Unified Mapping of the African Rift System: Lithospheric Strength and Magmatic Evolution 

Margaret Maenner, Jean-Joel Legre, D Sarah Stamps, Aubreya Adams, and Tolulope Olugboji

The interaction between mantle plumes and continental lithosphere results in a complex spectrum of rifting outcomes, ranging from magma-rich breakups to failed rifts. Current research in the Turkana Depression posits a "Refractory Paradox," suggesting that failed rifts like the Anza Graben remain "dead zones" because prior melting events extracted volatiles, leaving behind a mechanically strong, dried-out lithosphere resistant to modification. However, it remains unclear if this "baked-dry" signature is a global requirement for rift failure or a local anomaly. We investigate this hypothesis by mapping the subtle architectural differences—specifically Moho sharpness and seismic lid preservation—that distinguish magma-poor regions from their magma-rich counterparts. To overcome the limitations of standard receiver function (RF) analysis, which is often degraded by noise and reverberations, we apply a rigorous, high-resolution workflow. We first denoise seismic data using the CRISP-RF algorithm, employing sparsity-promoting Radon transforms to suppress incoherent noise while preserving full-wavefield phases. These clean data are then inverted alongside surface wave dispersion measurements using a transdimensional probabilistic Bayesian  framework. This approach allows us to quantify non-uniqueness and robustly constrain multi-layered crustal properties (Vp/Vs ratios) and lithospheric velocity structure without placing limiting assumptions on elastic properties. By integrating these refined seismic constraints with common-conversion-point (CCP) stacking, we resolve the trade-off between magmatic underplating (gradational Moho, Vp/Vs > 1.8) and tectonic thinning (sharp Moho, Vp/Vs ~1.74). Finally, we pair these structural observations with thermo-chemical modeling (WINTERC-G/PerPleX) to convert velocities into temperature and composition. This study aims to determine if the lithospheric strength beneath the African Rift is governed by volatile depletion or alternative weakening mechanisms, such as anisotropy or eclogitization.

How to cite: Maenner, M., Legre, J.-J., Stamps, D. S., Adams, A., and Olugboji, T.: Unified Mapping of the African Rift System: Lithospheric Strength and Magmatic Evolution, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5886, 2026.

The Continent-Ocean Transition (COT) in the young Tyrrhenian basin documents mantle exhumation punctuated with multiple episodes of discrete oceanic crust formation. This observation challenges prevailing models of magma-poor COTs, which typically describe mantle exhumation preceding the emplacement of oceanic crust. Notably, this COT developed without the conventional conditions associated with magma-poor rifted margins, such as slow rifting velocities and chemically depleted mantle sources. A key observation is the low shear-wave velocity observed in the uppermost mantle of the Tyrrhenian basin and its adjacent onshore regions correlates with subduction-related volcanism, suggesting the presence of a hydrated mantle wedge with low rheological strength. Here we show that, based on 3D magmatic-thermomechanical numerical modeling, the episodic formation of oceanic crust within the Tyrrhenian basin’s COT results from the mechanical weakness of the mantle. The lithospheric mantle is exhumed to the surface through exhumation channels initiated within the weak mantle zone. The subsequent flow of partially molten mantle toward these channels leads to the development of multiple short-lived spreading centers. Our findings shed light on characteristics and mechanisms shaping the COT of marginal basins, where their opening is influenced by subduction processes.

How to cite: Su, H. and Leng, W.: Weak mantle wedge causes mantle exhumation punctuated with discrete oceanic crust in the Tyrrhenian basin, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7005, 2026.

EGU26-7229 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

New constraints on active normal faulting in the South Gulf of Evia, Greece 

Saoirse Coveney, Alex Whittaker, Rebecca Bell, James Wood, Haris Kranis, and Athanassios Ganas

In many areas of active faulting, the continuity of normal faults with a short or incomplete historical earthquake record and subtle topographic expression is not fully understood: as a result the seismic potential of these faults is often underestimated. The Southern Gulf of Evia rift, Greece is an example of a poorly explored normal fault bounded system, where the location and spatiotemporal evolution of the major basin bounding faults is not well constrained. We integrate geomorphic and structural field data, topographic analyses and geodetic data to constrain the locations, footwall geometries and structural evolution of 8 major extensional structures bounding the Southern margin of the South Gulf of Evia. We propose that this fault system comprises two isolated fault groups containing both partially and fully linked segments. These fault linkage scenarios suggest that the eastern fault group may have a total linked length of ca. 40 km with a maximum credible earthquake size of Mw 7.0. Further, we reconcile new analysis of vintage sparker seismic reflection data previously acquired and interpreted in the 1980s, with onshore geomorphic indicators of tectonic uplift to provide new constraints on the continuity of active normal faults offshore, including the major normal fault zones bounding the northern margin of the rift. By comparing our reconstructions of footwall relief with the seismic reflection and Ocean Bottom Seismometer (OBS) data, we suggest footwall uplift to hanging wall subsidence ratios of 1:2-1:3 and total slip rates in the order of 2-3 mm/yr. Finally, based on the correlation of seismic stratigraphy with a global eustatic sea level curve and a comparison of estimated sediment fluxes into the Gulf with measured sediment volumes in the South Gulf, we propose updated Pleistocene-Holocene ages for the basin stratigraphy and suggest possible timescales for fault evolution and linkage along the rift margins.

How to cite: Coveney, S., Whittaker, A., Bell, R., Wood, J., Kranis, H., and Ganas, A.: New constraints on active normal faulting in the South Gulf of Evia, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7229, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7229, 2026.

EGU26-7348 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Normal fault migration and basin evolution in complex rift settings: insights from the North Gulf of Evia, Central Greece 

James Wood, Rebecca Bell, Alexander Whittaker, Saoirse Coveney, Frank Chanier, Fabien Caroir, Haralambos Kranis, and Athanassios Ganas

The North Gulf of Evia is a young, active continental rift system located in Central Greece. Extension of 2-4 mm/yr is accommodated by large normal fault systems, such as the onshore Coastal Faults near Kammena Vourla, but slip rates and timing of initiation of these structures and intrabasinal offshore faults are poorly constrained. Extension is also coupled with strong rotational and strike-slip influence from the westward-propagating North Anatolian Fault, providing contrast to the nearby, orthogonal rifting in the Gulf of Corinth. The geodynamic setting of the rift has resulted in a complex configuration of normal, oblique and strike-slip faults across the North Gulf of Evia rift system. Detailed, high resolution study of faulting processes (initiation, linkage and migration) and the temporal evolution of such systems requires a high-resolution age model of syn-kinematic sedimentation. To date, no pre-Holocene sedimentary correlation has been proposed for the North Gulf of Evia, restricting the temporal scope of evolutionary studies.

We aim to unlock the temporal evolution of late-Quaternary (0-~325 ka) sedimentation and faulting in the North Gulf of Evia through the development of a syn-tectonic depositional age model for the Western Basin of the Gulf. To do this, we exploit a high resolution, high density 2D seismic reflection dataset (WATER I and II) to identify three key mappable horizons across the semi-enclosed basin using seismic stratigraphic principles including reflection terminations and onlap relationships. Based on observed late-Pleistocene deltaic clinoform packages, ages of ~12 ka (MIS 2), ~130 ka (MIS 6) and ~325 ka (MIS 9) are attributed to these horizons within our sequence stratigraphic model. The age model is applied across the Western Basin alongside a new network of offshore faults to determine the major structural components, depocentres and evolutionary history of the rift system for the first time.

We resolve the major modern structural controls on the basin to be the Kalypso Fault at the southern margin of the rift and the axial Central Graben. Holocene throw on the extensional Kalypso Fault is ~3.75 mm/yr with faults of the Central Graben deforming at throw rates of ~0.9 - 1.7 mm/yr. We show that the Kalypso Fault is linked to the western part of the onshore Coastal Fault System, widely considered the most active fault zone of the North Gulf of Evia and uplifts the hanging wall of the active Arkitsa Fault, where a sequence of uplifted Pleistocene marine terraces is preserved. Initiation of the Kalypso Fault is temporally constrained to ~325 ka from thickening relationships of syn-kinematic sediment packages following a strain migration event from the Arkitsa Fault. This migration event occurs across non-parallel structures with evolving strike of >20°, likely reflecting the regional rotational influence of the North Anatolian Fault on Central Greece. The Kalypso Fault represents the most active resolved normal fault in the Western North Gulf of Evia and presents significant, previously unrecognised seismic hazard.

How to cite: Wood, J., Bell, R., Whittaker, A., Coveney, S., Chanier, F., Caroir, F., Kranis, H., and Ganas, A.: Normal fault migration and basin evolution in complex rift settings: insights from the North Gulf of Evia, Central Greece, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7348, 2026.

EGU26-7459 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Basement Inheritance and Its Influence on Rift Evolution and Rifted Margin Architecture: The North Sea and Mid-Norwegian Margin. 

Chloé Castagné, Gwenn Péron-Pinvidic, and Gianreto Manatschal

The Mid-Norwegian margin and the North Sea rift are among the most extensively studied regions in the world, owing to their abundant geological and geophysical datasets. Their basement architecture is complex, having been shaped by the Silurian Caledonian orogeny and subsequent gravitational collapse during the Devonian. This was followed by multiple rifting episodes, separated by periods of tectonic quiescence. While the North Sea subsequently entered a post-rift phase dominated by thermal subsidence, rifting along the Mid-Norwegian margin persisted until continental breakup in the early Eocene.

Despite these studies, the mechanisms by which remnants of the Caledonian orogeny influenced later rifting stages remain unclear. For many years, seismic imaging could not penetrate to the depths required to investigate the complete basement architecture. Recent advances in seismic reflection imaging, however, have enabled the acquisition of long-offset, deep, high-resolution profiles extending up to 16 seconds two-way travel time (s-TWTT). The GeoexMCG Regional Deep Imaging (RDI) dataset thus provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the entire basement architecture, including the lower crust and lithospheric mantle.

This contribution summarizes the first results of a PhD study focused on a large-scale interpretation of the RDI dataset, supported by offshore-onshore geological correlations and gravity and magnetic modelling. Units with distinct seismic facies -i.e., zones of consistent reflectivity characterized by amplitude, frequency, and continuity - were defined in Petrel after multiple mapping iterations. Based on these results, the aim of the PhD study is to explore how inherited basement structures influence continental rifting and the formation of rifted margins at large scales.

How to cite: Castagné, C., Péron-Pinvidic, G., and Manatschal, G.: Basement Inheritance and Its Influence on Rift Evolution and Rifted Margin Architecture: The North Sea and Mid-Norwegian Margin., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7459, 2026.

Plate motion directions, and the orientations of rift zones and oceanic spreading ridges, and of transform faults and fracture zones that are perpendicular to these ridges, are generally controlled by tectonic forces such as slab pull, mantle convection, and mantle plumes. Here, it is hypothesized that within the confines of these general orientations, the exact orientations of these structures, and therefore plate motion directions, are partially controlled by suitably oriented sets of steep continental lithospheric discontinuities (CLDs), which work in concert with these larger tectonic forces.

Previously, the observation has been made that oceanic fracture zones are contiguous with CLDs, such as suture zones and other lithospheric fault zones. Based on high-resolution bathymetry, geological and geophysical data, it is demonstrated here that continents have multiple sets of lineaments parallel to such CLDs, or contiguous with CLDs where they occur farther inland and do not reach the ocean. Published analog experiments suggest that the orientations of transform faults and fracture zones are controlled by these CLDs if the angle between the spreading direction and the CLDs is no more than ~45°. Spreading ridge segments evolve in an orientation perpendicular to these transform faults and fracture zones, so that the spreading direction becomes parallel to the transform faults and fracture zones. The implication is that the exact plate motion directions are controlled by CLDs, if a set of CLDs is orientated at low angle with the spreading direction. When plate motion directions need to change due to tectonic forces, the new hypothesis predicts that the exact directions may be controlled by a different set of suitably orientated CLDs. During later stages of oceanic spreading, the larger tectonic forces such as slab pull, mantle convection, and mantle plumes become increasingly dominant and plate motion directions may no longer be controlled by the CLDs.

While the hypothesis needs further testing, it has potentially far-reaching implications. For example, Euler pole reconstructions are commonly based on small circle patterns formed by fracture zones and transform faults in the oceanic lithosphere. Oceanic crust older than ~200 Ma is typically destroyed by subduction, and pre-Mesozoic Euler poles can therefore not be reconstructed based on that method. If the hypothesis presented above is correct, the orientations of CLDs and associated lineament sets may be used as proxies for orientations of past transform faults and fracture zones, at least during early oceanic spreading. The locations of past Euler poles may thus be better estimated based on these CLDs and lineaments, and pre-Mesozoic plate tectonic reconstructions may be much improved in deep geologic time.

How to cite: Kuiper, Y.: Do continental lithospheric discontinuities exert control on tectonic plate motion directions?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8469, 2026.

The Meso-Neoproterozoic period is sometimes referred to as the “Boring Billion” or “Earth’s Middle Age,” spanning the time between the formation of the Columbia supercontinent and the Rodinia supercontinent. This period records a key transition in the supercontinent cycle, shaping the global tectonic regime and paleogeographic pattern. In this study, laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) zircon U-Pb geochronological analysis was conducted on five sandstone samples from the Ordos Rift Zone in the western North China Craton to constrain the regional tectonic evolution and basin development processes. The detrital zircon ages can be divided into multiple age groups, with zircon grains older than 1.8 Ga derived from the basement of the North China Craton, while the younger zircon populations (< 1.8 Ga) are associated with Mesoproterozoic magmatic events. Through an integrated approach combining zircon geochronology, major and trace element analysis, and sandstone modal analysis, the tectonic setting and parent rock properties of the provenance area were identified. The tripartite sedimentary cycle of volcanic rocks, continental-margin clastic rocks, and marine carbonate rocks in the Changcheng Period of the Ordos Rift Zone was finely delineated, and the response times (2.0  Ga, 1.8  Ga, and 1.6  Ga) of the assembly, consolidation, and breakup processes of the Columbia supercontinent in the western North China Craton were calibrated, respectively. The results show that the vertical sedimentary sequence of the Changcheng System in the Ordos Rift Zone corresponds to the rift evolution stages, forming a tripartite evolutionary cycle of igneous rocks–continental-margin clastic rocks–marine carbonate rocks, which records the transition process of tectonic activity from intense to stable. Three distinct stages of basin evolution during 1.8–1.4 Ga were defined: the initial rift stage and the rift expansion stage correspond to the disintegration of the Columbia supercontinent (1.8–1.6 Ga), and the passive continental margin stage coincides with a slowdown of the late supercontinent breakup rate (1.6–1.4 Ga). The detailed characterization of the regional tectonic evolution and rift zone sedimentary filling process during the Changcheng Period in the Ordos Basin reveals the source‑to‑sink spatiotemporal sedimentary pattern controlled by the rift system, providing key constraints for the evolution of the western margin of the North China Craton during the Precambrian supercontinent transition and offering new insights into the response of the North China Craton to global-scale geodynamic processes.

How to cite: Liu, G.: Detrital Zircon Records and Tectono-Sedimentary Evolution of the Mesoproterozoic Changcheng Period Strata in the Ordos Rift Zone, Western North China Craton, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8574, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8574, 2026.

EGU26-8746 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Effects of inheritance and surface processes on strain localization during the early stages of the Corinth Rift system development  

Ingra Barbosa, Ritske Huismans, Casey Nixon, Robert Gawthorpe, and Delphine Rouby

From 5 to ca. 2 million years ago, faulting in the Corinth Rift, in central Greece, was concentrated onshore, to the south of the present-day Gulf of Corinth. Between 2 to 1.8 Ma the active fault network migrated northward, accompanied by footwall uplift, which led to active faulting and the rift being localized offshore in the present-day Gulf of Corinth. The factors controlling this fault migration remain unknown. Overall rift evolution is controlled by tectonics, but climate-driven surface processes affect rift topography, the development and longevity of normal faults, and overall rift evolution. A simple yet effective method for assessing strain distribution within a fractured region is the Kuiper’s test, which quantifies how much a line sampled through a faulted area deviates from a uniform distribution. By calculating the cumulative extension of faults distributed along a line, it is possible to infer if the strain in this section is distributed homogeneously throughout the fractures (values close to the uniform distribution) or if the strain is localized in few large faults (large departure of the uniform distribution), and whether this variation is statistically significant. We use the finite element thermo‐mechanical numerical model Fantom-2D coupled with the landscape evolution model FastScape to investigate how inheritance and surface processes control rift faulting and progressive localization during the early stages of continental rift evolution. We test different values of crustal strength and of frictional-plastic strain weakening to evaluate the response of the models. We tested each model without surface processes, and with different aggradation and progradation rates. We evaluated fault distribution, depocenter migration and rift localization through time and compared them to high resolution datasets from the present-day Corinth Rift and central Greece. The degree of localization obtained through the Kuiper’s test for five regions in the Corinth Rift were used to further validate the models. Using datasets of a rift system with a relatively simple extension history such as the Corinth Rift helps to better constrain numerical modelling parameters and improve rift evolution models.

How to cite: Barbosa, I., Huismans, R., Nixon, C., Gawthorpe, R., and Rouby, D.: Effects of inheritance and surface processes on strain localization during the early stages of the Corinth Rift system development , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8746, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8746, 2026.

EGU26-9303 | Posters on site | TS2.1

A New Approach to Rift Kinematics During the Formation of the Black Sea Basin 

Armagan Kaykun and Russell Pysklywec

As recent hydrocarbon discoveries rekindle exploration activities in the Black Sea Basin (BSB), efforts to understand the geodynamic processes that led to the formation and evolution of the basin have started to play a significant role in understanding the structural trends formed during rifting. The debate on whether the basin rifted open as one east-west oriented basin, or as two separate basins named the Eastern and Western Black Sea Basins, has been discussed in numerous models. Evidence for the two-basin hypothesis focuses on the basin's semi-parallel ridge and depression architecture, which trends NW-SE in the east and W-E in the west. Conversely, the single-basin model is supported by the correspondence between the regional structure and geodynamic rifting models, specifically those involving an asymmetrical rift pivoting on an eastern hinge caused by slab roll-back of the subducting plate located in the south of the basin.
To address existing tectonic uncertainties, we established a new structural framework for the BSB by reinterpreting 24 long-offset 2D seismic lines. These structural constraints enabled the development of two 2D computational models, allowing us to simulate the distinct kinematic evolution of the basin's western and eastern sections. Our 2D sectioned models show that rift velocities vary significantly in the east-west direction. This contradicts previous analog models showing that the formation of the BSB was related to a simple asymmetrical rift with constantly increasing velocities towards the west from a hinge point located at the eastern margin of the basin. The complex velocity changes throughout the rift axis suggest an uneven movement throughout the subduction zone that drives the back-arc rift. Ultimately, proposing a new complex kinematic history during the evolution of the rift and alternating rift velocities throughout the rift axis, provide a better understanding of the timing of all tectonic events and the final ridge depression geometry observed throughout the BSB.

How to cite: Kaykun, A. and Pysklywec, R.: A New Approach to Rift Kinematics During the Formation of the Black Sea Basin, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9303, 2026.

The kinematic of the southern North Atlantic is still debated and new kinematic markers are needed to improve our knowledge of the earliest movements. In this frame, we focus on the location of the first evidence of steady-state oceanic spreading offshore Galicia Bank. Such marker is a spatial criterion that can be used to propose refined new kinematic models. Galicia Bank is part of the magma-poor rifted margins of the southern North Atlantic. The margin is located west of Iberia and is conjugated to the southeastern margin of Flemish Cap. These plate corners are key for understanding the kinematics of the Iberia plate, as they are suspected to act as microplates with complex movements during the Late Jurassic – Early Cretaceous. Studies already proposed domains of exhumed continental and oceanic mantle along a seismic reflection and wide-angle profile offshore Galicia Bank (Dean et al., 2015; Davy et al., 2016) but this boundary is poorly defined on a large scale along the margin. As rift phases occurred during the ‘Cretaceous Quiet Zone’ (118–83 Ma), it is not possible to identify the first oceanic crust using Earth's magnetic field reversal. We propose to interpret several E/W to NW/SE oriented seismic reflection profiles from the BREOGHAM-2005 cruise (P.I. Luis Somoza) to better constrain these areas of exhumed mantle. We based our interpretation method on previous studies of the eastern part of the Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR) that described a domain of exhumed mantle with successive detachment faults on either side of the ridge axis occurring over the last 11 million years (e.g. Sauter et al., 2013; Reston et al., 2018). In addition, recent seismic reflection data allowed the definition of new criteria for characterising ultra-slow nearly amagmatic spreading ridges. We therefore map these criteria in order to locate this domain along the West Iberia margin. We provide new spatial observations of landward-dipping reflectors and exhumed mantle ridges. They are interpreted as seismic indicators of the presence of flipping detachments. A new boundary is thus proposed along the West Iberia margin separating continental mantle exhumation from steady-state ultra-slow oceanic spreading, which could serve as a constraint in kinematic constructions. The indicators of early steady-state oceanic spreading may be applied to other magma-poor rifted margins. This study may indeed be supported by the presence of the same flip-flop structures in symmetry offshore the Flemish Cap southeast margin.

How to cite: Etcheverry, L., Autin, J., and Somoza, L.: Localisation of steady-state ultra-slow oceanic spreading along magma-poor rifted margins: Case example offshore Galicia Bank (West Iberia)., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9482, 2026.

EGU26-9582 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Integrated Seismic–Potential Field Constraints on the Evolution of the Dniepr–Donets Rift Basin 

Ali Nasiri, Randell Stephenson, Sergiy Stovba, Sergey Drachev, Łukasz Słonka, and Stanisław Mazur

The Dniepr–Donets Basin (DDB) is one of the largest and best-preserved intracontinental rift systems in Europe, yet the geodynamic processes responsible for its formation remain uncertain. There are two end-member models possible: (1) passive rifting driven by far-field tectonic stresses transmitted through the lithosphere, such as back-arc extension or plate boundary forces, and (2) active rifting associated with localized thermal anomalies in the mantle, potentially linked to plume-like upwellings. Distinguishing between these mechanisms is important for understanding why some continental rifts evolve toward oceanic break-up, whereas others, such as the DDB, remain confined within continental interiors.

This study aims to reassess the tectonic evolution of the DDB by integrating regional-scale seismic, borehole, gravity, and magnetic datasets into a coherent crustal and lithospheric framework. The core of the analysis is based on the interpretation of approximately 40 regional seismic reflection and refraction profiles, including classical and widely used datasets such as DOBRE’99 and Georift-2013. These seismic data are calibrated using stratigraphic, lithological, and velocity information from nearly 1,900 boreholes distributed across the basin. Fourteen key stratigraphic horizons are mapped consistently throughout the DDB, covering an area of ~76,900 km² and spanning the pre-rift, syn-rift, and post-rift sedimentary sequences.

Seismic interpretation is complemented by gravity and magnetic anomaly data, which are used to refine the geometry and continuity of major fault systems and crustal domains. The combined datasets allow the timing and kinematics of major faulting episodes and regional unconformities to be constrained with improved confidence. Balanced cross-section analysis along selected regional profiles provides quantitative estimates of crustal extension, fault displacement, and basin asymmetry, offering direct tests of competing rift models.

A three-dimensional structural model of the DDB that integrates seismic surfaces with borehole stratigraphy and velocity data is a key outcome of the work. Although still under development, this model reveals the three-dimensional architecture of the basin, including variations in sediment thickness, fault segmentation, and structural asymmetry along strike. Particular attention is paid to identifying systematic asymmetries in fault geometry and basin fill, which may indicate simple-shear deformation and lithospheric-scale detachment processes commonly associated with passive rifting. Linking shallow geological observations with deep crustal reflectivity patterns enables a more robust reconstruction of the basin’s long-term evolution.

Potential field data further provide constraints on the role of mantle processes during rifting. Spatial variations in gravity and magnetic anomalies are analyzed to detect possible mafic intrusions, high-density lower-crustal bodies, or anomalous mantle domains. These observations are used to evaluate whether thermal weakening of the lithosphere and magmatic underplating played a primary role, or whether rifting was dominated by mechanical stretching of a relatively cold lithosphere.

Overall, this ongoing research integrates crustal- and mantle-scale observations to explore the interplay between mantle dynamics, faulting, sedimentation, and basin subsidence. The results are expected to refine models of intracontinental rifting and clarify the conditions under which continental rifts either progress toward break-up or remain long-lived but abortive systems, as exemplified by the Dniepr–Donets Basin.

How to cite: Nasiri, A., Stephenson, R., Stovba, S., Drachev, S., Słonka, Ł., and Mazur, S.: Integrated Seismic–Potential Field Constraints on the Evolution of the Dniepr–Donets Rift Basin, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9582, 2026.

EGU26-9953 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Controls on the spatio-temporal distribution of plume-related excess melting during continental rifting 

Abigail Plimmer, Ritske Huismans, and Sebastian Wolf

The complexity in the relationship between mantle and lithosphere processes may be most directly exemplified in the coupling between upwelling plumes and extending lithosphere at rifted margins, and the distribution of excess melting across these regions through space and time. Rifted margins are often described in two end-member classes; magma-rich and magma-poor, typified by the emplacement of seaward dipping reflector sequences (SDRs) and high velocity lower crustal bodies (HVLC) or the exhumation of serpentinised mantle with little extrusive melt, respectively. Previous studies have linked margin architecture and magmatic budget to extension velocity, lithosphere thickness, and rheology. The role of mantle plumes remains poorly constrained, with plumes associated with both magma-poor and magma-rich margins, implying that their influence on excess melt production is not straightforward. Our study aims to better constrain the relationship between mantle plumes and excess melting at rifted margins by exploring the interaction of plumes originating from the mantle transition zone and rifting.

We present two-dimensional numerical simulations to investigate how mantle plumes interact with lithosphere extension during continental rifting. Rifting is simulation using the ALE finite-element code FANTOM, incorporating a thermal anomaly at the base of the upper mantle to represent a stalled plume source. We systematically vary velocity, plume temperature anomaly, and plume position relative to the rift axis to explore how these parameters control the timing, magnitude, and spatial distribution of excess melting during breakup.

Our results indicate that excess melting associated with mantle plumes is both transient and spatially distributed. The timing, magnitude and lateral distribution of excess melting depends non-linearly on the interaction between plume buoyancy and lithospheric extension rate, with the strongest plume influence occurring at intermediate extension velocities. Plumes residing directly beneath the rift axis focus melt, producing temporally concentrated, focussed melt zones that promote earlier rift breakup whereas plumes which lie adjacent to the rift axis produce spatially offset and temporally delayed melt focussing, resulting in narrower but less efficiently coupled melt zones. These results demonstrate that plume-driven excess melting may be highly time-dependent with an evolving spatial distribution that reflects the efficiency of melt focussing relative to the thinning lithosphere.

How to cite: Plimmer, A., Huismans, R., and Wolf, S.: Controls on the spatio-temporal distribution of plume-related excess melting during continental rifting, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9953, 2026.

EGU26-10165 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Fault activity along the western margin of the Argos Gulf (Peloponnese, Greece) revealed by tectonic geomorphology analysis 

Amélie Viger, Haralambos Kranis, Alexander Whittaker, Rebecca Bell, and Athanassios Ganas

The Gulf of Argos, Greece, is a post-Miocene basin at the north-western extremity of the Cretan Sea (southern Aegean). Its formation is attributed to NE-SW-oriented back-arc extension, induced by rollback of the subducting slab in the Hellenic arc.

The western margin of the Gulf of Argos is marked by the almost linear coastline of the eastern Peloponnese, and is related to a c.100 km long, NNW-SSE normal fault system, stretching from Kiveri to Ariana. Despite it being a recognizable structure, there are few, if any, constraints related to its degree of activity, possible segmentation, and seismic hazard potential. The immediate footwall to this fault system, which we name Western Argos Fault System (WAFS), hosts several similarly striking high-angle normal faults, whose Quaternary degree of activity is also poorly understood.

To better understand fault activity and evolution in the Gulf of Argos, we study the mid- to long-term (several kyr to a few Myr) development of the footwall of the West Argos Fault System. Our study focuses on how drainage river long profiles and footwall relief have responded dynamically to tectonic activity. We estimate an uplift rate for each footwall catchment along the WAFS from knickpoint analysis and estimates of bedrock erodibility. We then compare these results with vertical motion data collected in the field and topographical data along the western margin of the Gulf of Argos.

We propose a throw rate of 0.9-2.4 mm/yr along the WAFS, which comprises at least four segments and an overall southward migration of fault activity, as the northernmost segments appear to be significantly less active than the southern ones.

How to cite: Viger, A., Kranis, H., Whittaker, A., Bell, R., and Ganas, A.: Fault activity along the western margin of the Argos Gulf (Peloponnese, Greece) revealed by tectonic geomorphology analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10165, 2026.

EGU26-10868 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Early opening of the Central Atlantic and its connection to the Western Tethys 

Benjamin Heudes, Julie Tugend, Geoffroy Mohn, and Nick Kusznir

                Deciphering the dynamics of continental breakup is fundamental to understanding how oceanic basins initiate, segment, propagate and connect to the global oceanic system. However, constraining the spatial and temporal evolution of continental rupture is challenging as it precedes the establishment of continuous oceanic spreading and reliable kinematic markers such as marine magnetic anomalies. Here we focus on the earliest stage of Pangea breakup, with the aim of constraining basin segmentation during the initial opening of the Central Atlantic Ocean (CAO), prior to its connection with the main Panthalassa Ocean through the Western Tethys.

                The CAO corresponds to the earliest opened branch of the Atlantic.  The timing of its continental breakup and onset of oceanic spreading remains debated, with proposed breakup ages ranging from 195 Ma to 175 Ma. This uncertainty leads to major ambiguities in the geodynamic context of continental rupture, with consequences for the interpretation of rifted and nascent oceanic basins segmentation, connectivity, and associated depositional environments. It also affects the interpretation of major Jurassic magnetic anomalies identified across the CAO: the East Coast Magnetic Anomaly (ECMA) and Blake Spur Magnetic Anomaly (BSMA), which are commonly used as kinematic markers in early Atlantic reconstruction.

                To address these issues, we have compiled a regional database to integrate major rift structures and basins, Upper Triassic salt distribution, and variations in the nature of the ocean-continent-transition and magmatic type. We present interpretations of seismic reflection data along the Central Atlantic rifted margins, calibrated using available drilling results. These data allow us to constrain rift basin age and architecture, fault system development and the distribution of rift-related salt provinces. In parallel, regional crustal thickness maps derived from gravity inversion are used to investigate along-strike variations in magmatic budget during continental breakup and the early stages of oceanic accretion, relation with the spatial distribution of the ECMA and BSMA.

                Our first results confirm pronounced along-strike variations in magmatic volumes emplaced during continental breakup and the initial phases of oceanic spreading. The newly compiled database will provide key constraints for paleogeographic reconstructions, with the aim of clarifying the duration of oceanic basin isolation, the timing of basin connectivity through the Western Tethys and sedimentation pathways associated with the early Atlantic evolution.

How to cite: Heudes, B., Tugend, J., Mohn, G., and Kusznir, N.: Early opening of the Central Atlantic and its connection to the Western Tethys, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10868, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10868, 2026.

EGU26-11130 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Strain partitioning in the Natron Basin, East African Rift: Insights from geodetic and seismic moment rates. 

Ivan Navarrete, Jean-Arthur Olive, Eric Calais, Derek Keir, and Manon Dalaison

The Natron Basin is located within the eastern branch of the East African Rift, a segment characterized by greater magmatic activity compared to the western branch. This activity has been shown to play a key role in accommodating deformation in the eastern rift, alongside crustal-scale faulting. The Natron Basin represents a particularly suitable natural laboratory to investigate the interaction between active tectonic and magmatic deformation, as previous studies have documented magmatic intrusion events associated with active rifting episodes in the region.

In this study, we use new geodetic observations acquired during a GNSS campaign conducted in the Natron Basin in summer 2025, and started in 2013, to investigate present-day deformation patterns. Campaign-derived horizontal (and vertical) velocities are used to estimate regional strain rates and to derive geodetic moment rates under standard mechanical assumptions. These geodetic estimates provide an integrated measure of ongoing extension across the basin.

To assess how this deformation is released seismically, we compare geodetic moment rates with seismic moment rates inferred from global earthquake catalogs, including NEIC and ISC; over comparable spatial and temporal scales. This comparison allows us to place bounds on the seismic coupling coefficient of rift normal faults.

The observed mismatch between geodetic and seismic moment rates suggest that a significant fraction of present-day deformation in the Natron Basin is accommodated though aseismic processes. These may include distributed crustal deformation and contributions from magma intrusions, which are known to influence rift evolution in magma-rich segments of the East African Rift. These observations illustrate the potential of combined geodetic and seismic analyses to investigate strain partitioning in magma-rich segments of continental rifts.

How to cite: Navarrete, I., Olive, J.-A., Calais, E., Keir, D., and Dalaison, M.: Strain partitioning in the Natron Basin, East African Rift: Insights from geodetic and seismic moment rates., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11130, 2026.

EGU26-11281 | Orals | TS2.1

Reassessing modes of Plume-Rift Magmatism 

Jason P. Morgan and César R. Ranero

Several types of magmatism are typically associated with continental stretching and rift formation. The South Atlantic Rifted Margin is a particularly well-studied system that exhibits: (1) Thousands-km-long massive dike swarms – likely linked to the Tristan Plume/hotspot; (2) the Parana-Etendeka continental flood basalt (CFB); and (3) the formation of extensive seaward dipping reflector sequences (SDRs) along the southern portion of this rifted margin. Here we review the distribution, timing, and volumes of these different modes of rift-related magmatism in relation to rift evolution.

Great dike swarms formed prior to, during, and soon after the Parana-Etendeka flood basalt event at 136.5-135.5 Ma. Although comparable in spatial extent and volume to the well-known Proterozoic Mackenzie dike swarm that similarly extended from a continental flood basalt, summed dike volumes appear to only be ~10% (0.15e6 km^3) of the Parana CFB magmatism (~1.5e6) and ~2% of total magmatism (~6e6) associated with South Atlantic Rifting including SDR provinces.

The defining characteristic of the CFB event is that it occurred very rapidly, which appears most consistent with a sudden lithospheric thinning event (e.g. lower lithospheric delamination) in the presence of hot plume material. A plume-head rising under thick continental lithosphere simply could not create this sudden burst of volcanic activity, thus an abrupt lithospheric thinning event appears needed to explain this melting anomaly. Note that there is seismic evidence consistent with such a delamination event both in the thinned lower lithosphere beneath Parana and the presence of a delaminated lithospheric fragment in the transition zone near the site of the modern Tristan Plume.

Finally, the largest volcanism associated with South Atlantic rifting is linked to the SDR province including associated underplated magmas offshore the southern margins of South American and Africa. This post-CFB magmatic activity can be quantitatively explained by more extensive melting of southward flowing Tristan Plume material after extensive rifting has thinned the extending lithosphere to <~80km. The later timing of this activity (~130-125 Ma) relative to the CFB (136.5-135.5 Ma) suggests that it, too, was not linked to the arrival of a plume head, but rather the persistent ‘tail’ of the Tristan Plume.  We will also briefly discuss potential implications for the epeirogeny linked to plume-rift evolution.

 

How to cite: Morgan, J. P. and Ranero, C. R.: Reassessing modes of Plume-Rift Magmatism, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11281, 2026.

EGU26-11555 | Orals | TS2.1

Styles of extensional reactivation in rifted margins – comparing numerical modeling results to nature 

Zoltán Erdős, Gwenn Peron-Pinvidic, Susanne Buiter, and Joya Tetreault

Many rifted margins develop in regions that previously experienced oceanic subduction and continent–continent collision. This implies that continental rifting commonly occurs in a lithosphere that contains significant inherited features, rather than in a homogeneous medium. Such inheritance can be broadly classified into three categories – structural, rheological, and thermal – which typically coexist. Inherited features may strongly influence rift evolution and resulting margin architecture.

In this study, we use 2D thermo-mechanical numerical models to investigate how complex inheritance, featuring structural, rheological and thermal components, affects subsequent phases of continental rifting. Our models simulate rifting following orogenesis that occurs through oceanic subduction, microcontinent accretion, and continental collision. By varying the size and complexity of the pre-rift orogen, we evaluate the relative importance of different types of inheritance in the development of rifted margins. We compare the resulting margin architectures with natural examples.

We find that a dynamic interplay exists between structural, rheological, and thermal inheritance, strongly influencing the resulting rifted margin architectures. In small, cold orogens, structural inheritance is predominant, whereas in large, warm orogens, thermal and rheological inheritance play more significant roles. The relative importance of thermal and rheological inheritance is particularly challenging to assess, but we propose that the former plays the more prominent role. To illustrate these contrasts, we compare conjugate rifted margin architectures of two end-member models with natural examples from the opening of the North and South Atlantic Oceans. Our experiments reproduce a diverse array of features observed in the natural examples, including the formation of continental fragments and allochthons. They illustrate the complex deformation pathways through which rifted margin structures may have been achieved. Our results thus highlight the critical role of deformation history in shaping the evolution of continental rifting.

How to cite: Erdős, Z., Peron-Pinvidic, G., Buiter, S., and Tetreault, J.: Styles of extensional reactivation in rifted margins – comparing numerical modeling results to nature, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11555, 2026.

EGU26-12670 | Posters on site | TS2.1

Intermediate-complexity modeling of magma–tectonic interaction in continental rifts 

Menno Fraters, Sascha Brune, Eleonora Rivalta, Rene Gassmöller, Sibiao Liu, Ameha Atnafu Muluneh, and Cedric Thieulot

Continental rifting often induces decompression melting and the ascent of magma that intrudes into the brittle crust in the form of dikes and sills and that extrudes along volcanic fields. At the same time, continental rifts experience stress from topographic loading due to rift flank uplift. It is clear that these two processes interact in magmatic rifts such as the Kenya Rift, the Main Ethiopian Rift, the Afar triple junction, and at the Icelandic plate boundary. However, separating the interplay between tectonic and magmatic processes, the evolving topography and the rift-related stress field, as well as the impact of these processes on dike-fault interactions from field observations alone remains difficult.


Previous modeling studies of time-dependent magma-tectonic interactions in extensional tectonic settings generally fall into two categories: (1) Simple models (e.g. Buck et al., 2005) represent diking by a prescribed fixed rectangular zone of horizontal divergence. While this approach can be applied to model tens of millions of years of dike injection along spreading ridges, its simplicity prevents applications to continental rifts where magmatism manifests over broad areas. (2) More complex setups simulating magma ascent via porous flow and fluid-driven fracture (e.g., Li et al. 2023). This approach allows to study the evolution of individual dikes, but its computational costs prevent application to lithosphere-scale rifts over geological time scales. 

Here, we present a numerical workflow that can be categorized as a model of intermediate complexity. The dikes are nucleated at the brittle-ductile transition above zones of partial melt. They are then propagated perpendicular to the minimum compressive stress, similar to the approach of Maccaferri et al. (2014), until they reach their freezing depth or the surface. In this presentation, we show how we  approach this problem and how we implement it in the open-source community geodynamics model ASPECT. We demonstrate that the generated dikes are being focused in specific regions, and how the directional dilation and heat injection during magma intrusion through dikes influence the long-term rifting evolution. 

References:

Buck, W. Roger, Luc L. Lavier, and Alexei N. B. Poliakov. “Modes of Faulting at Mid-Ocean Ridges.” Nature 434, no. 7034 (April 2005): 719–23. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03358.

Li, Yuan, Adina E Pusok, Timothy Davis, Dave A May, and Richard F Katz. “Continuum Approximation of Dyking with a Theory for Poro-Viscoelastic–Viscoplastic Deformation.” Geophysical Journal International 234, no. 3 (September 1, 2023): 2007–31. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad173.

Maccaferri, Francesco, Eleonora Rivalta, Derek Keir, and Valerio Acocella. “Off-Rift Volcanism in Rift Zones Determined by Crustal Unloading.” Nature Geoscience 7, no. 4 (April 2014): 297–300. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2110.

How to cite: Fraters, M., Brune, S., Rivalta, E., Gassmöller, R., Liu, S., Muluneh, A. A., and Thieulot, C.: Intermediate-complexity modeling of magma–tectonic interaction in continental rifts, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12670, 2026.

The presence of pre- to early synrift salt leads to varying degrees of decoupling between supra- and subsalt deformation during rifting. Decoupling is favored by thick salt or small fault displacement. This has been examined in detail in low-𝛽settings such as the southern and central North Sea and is applicable to the proximal domains of rifted margins. In addition, the role of late syn-rift salt on margins has been extensively studied. But the behavior of pre- to early synrift salt in the high-𝛽 necking, hyperextended, and exhumed mantle domains remains poorly understood.

A common suprasalt geometry in the necking and hyperextended domains of the western Iberian margin is that of strata that dip and thicken basinward. These might be mistaken for growth strata adjacent to a landward-dipping fault bounding a horst or for salt evacuation structures in a half graben, with both interpretations invoking low-𝛽, high-angle normal faults. However, they more likely record extension associated with large-offset detachment faults, but with thickening onto the top of the hanging wall instead of the fault. Slip ceases on the low-angle, basinward-dipping fault between the hanging- and footwall cutoffs of the salt, with continued extension on the deeper part of the fault transferred to slip on the steeper, landward-dipping hanging-wall salt in a zig-zag pattern like that of fish-tail thrusts. This simple concept can guide interpretations in areas with inadequate imaging.

The same idea also explains the presence of significant volumes of pre- to early synrift salt in the exhumed mantle domain, as seen in the Mauléon Basin of the NW Pyrenees. This relationship is enigmatic because mantle represents new real estate that formed after salt deposition and, moreover, any salt should be highly attenuated. The solution is that as mantle is exhumed from beneath the upper plate, extension on the landward-dipping exhumation detachment is transferred to the basinward-dipping salt detachment on that upper plate, thereby generating a zig-zag fault geometry. Effectively, the upper plate moves out from between both detachments, which merge at the hanging-wall cutoff of the upper plate such that salt and suprasalt strata end up juxtaposed above the footwall of the exhumation detachment. That part of the detachment becomes locked and the salt above the mantle does not get attenuated by further extension.

How to cite: Rowan, M., Chenin, P., and Manatschal, G.: Using stratal geometries above prerift to early synrift salt to constrain crustal fault interpretations in the distal domains of magma-poor rifted margins, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12780, 2026.

The Meso-Neoproterozoic Yanliao Aulacogen in the northern North China Craton (NCC) preserves a critical sedimentary record of the Columbia supercontinent breakup. However, the geodynamic mechanism driving its episodic subsidence and distinct asymmetric architecture (e.g., the "north-faulted, south-overlapping" geometry) remains debated. Specifically, how the rigid cratonic lithosphere accommodated significant extension under the hotter thermal conditions of the Mesoproterozoic represents a geodynamic paradox. To address this, we integrate geological prototype basin reconstruction with 2D thermo-mechanical modeling (ASPECT).

Constrained by stratigraphic correlations and detrital zircon provenance data from the Yanliao and Liaodong areas, we performed a systematic parametric study to test the sensitivity of rift evolution to mantle potential temperature (Tp) and lithospheric rheology. Our reconstruction reveals a rapid subsidence phase coincident with regional magmatism (~1.38 Ga). Correspondingly, numerical results indicate that simple mechanical stretching is insufficient to localize strain within the thick cratonic keel. Instead, a melt- or fluid-induced rheological weakening mechanism is required to reproduce the observed lithospheric thinning and basin depth. We propose that the Yanliao Aulacogen marks a transition in tectonic style, where the interplay between a hot, weak lower crust and magmatic pulses controlled basin evolution. This study provides new quantitative constraints on the geodynamic regime of NCC and highlights the necessity of incorporating Precambrian-specific rheological laws in ancient basin analysis. It not only reconstructs the paleogeography of the Yanliao Aulacogen but also provides quantitative constraints on the geodynamic regime of the NCC during the supercontinent cycle.

How to cite: Liu, J.: Rheological Controls on Intracratonic Rifting: Insights from Stratigraphic Reconstruction and Geodynamic Modeling of the Mesoproterozoic Yanliao Aulacogen, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13025, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13025, 2026.

EGU26-13086 | Posters on site | TS2.1

Magma-poor spreading at the Southwest Indian ridge: new insights from multichannel seismic reflection data and implications for magma-poor rifted margins 

Julia Autin, Daniel Sauter, Sylvie Leroy, Mathilde Cannat, and Victor Cabiativa Pico

Observations at active magma-poor mid-oceanic ridges during ultraslow spreading (< 20 km/Myr full rate) are crucial for understanding the oceanization processes taking place during tectonic plate breakup. Particularly along magma-poor rifted margins, where subcontinental mantle is exhumed prior to the onset of oceanic spreading. It is hypothesized that this exhumation, occurring along detachment faults, is accompanied by a progressive increase in the magmatic budget, ultimately leading to the formation of a spreading ridge. These exhumation processes are believed to be similar to those observed in magma-poor areas along ultra-slow-spreading ridges, such as the easternmost part of the Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR).

There, dredging revealed an oceanic basement composed of serpentinized exhumed mantle intruded by gabbros and locally overlain by variable amounts of basalts (Sauter et al., 2013). The morphology of the serpentinite ridges allowed to propose a "flip-flop" evolution of the detachment faults, characterized by alternating fault vergences. In this study, we analyse large-scale seismic reflection profiles of the Sismosmooth cruise (2014), over a series of peridotite ridges formed by flip-flop detachment processes. The absence of sedimentary cover allows for direct observation and ground-truthing of the nature of the exhumed basement at the seafloor (dredges, sub-marine images, bathymetry, TOBI side-scan sonar data). However, seismic reflection data are challenging to interpret due to the high impedance contrast between the water column and the basement, which limits wave penetration in the basement (Canales et al., 2004).

Our objective is to identify new criteria for identifying flip-flop detachment faults in contexts where the basement surface is covered by sediments, i.e. at continental margins. We also aim at identifying differences between flip-flop faulting at mid-ocean ridges and magma-poor rifted-margins. Detachment fault blocks in the easternmost SWIR form large amplitude, regularly spaced (11-18 km), mostly rounded and asymmetric ridges that expose serpentinized peridotites, locally with a thin basaltic cover. Seismic reflection data shows that the reflective top basement is locally affected by normal faults dipping mostly toward the ridge axis. Deep reflectors parallel to the top basement (~0.8 s TWT below top basement) occur locally, mostly beneath the inward-facing slopes of ridges, where the basement top is concave. We propose that they result from magma entrapment in the axial rift, when a new, antithetic, detachment fault cuts the previous one. Higher heat flow and hydrothermalism in the fault damage zone could prevent melt ascension to the seafloor.

We next look for these features (smooth reflective top basement ridges and reflectors ~0.8 s TWT below top basement) in seismic reflection profiles acquired across magma-poor rifted margins where flip-flop processes are suspected. We propose an interpretation of smooth basement ridges in the most distal magma-poor rifted margins as proto-oceanic or oceanic domains. We apply this approach to the Iberia and Antarctica fossil margins and show how this new criteria, allowing us to propose that flip-flop detachment processes took place during or directly after the final breakup of the lithospheric mantle, may help map and interpret key domains of the most distal part of magma-poor rifted margins.

How to cite: Autin, J., Sauter, D., Leroy, S., Cannat, M., and Cabiativa Pico, V.: Magma-poor spreading at the Southwest Indian ridge: new insights from multichannel seismic reflection data and implications for magma-poor rifted margins, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13086, 2026.

EGU26-13194 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Mapping the Moho Geometry around the exhumated mantle in the Tyrrhenian Sea: A Synthesis of Multi-vintage Seismic Data and DSDP/ODP/IODP Drilling Results 

Lining Yang, Manel Prada, César R. Ranero, Maria Filomena Loreto, and Nevio Zitellini

The Tyrrhenian Sea is a young back-arc basin that began to open in the Langhian/Serravallian (15.97-13.82 Ma). Its formation was driven by the eastward roll-back of the Apennine-Maghrebide subduction system, leading to the exhumation of the mantle in the Vavilov Basin. The spatio-temporal evolution of this exhumation occurred just after the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC). Consequently, the distribution and thickness of Messinian evaporites (5.97–5.33 Ma) provide a chronostratigraphic marker to constrain the transition from continental rifting to mantle exhumation. Within this framework, the present study aims to reconstruct a refined 3D Moho topography to reveal the relationship between crustal thinning and mantle exhumation.

In the Tyrrhenian Sea, we analysed a comprehensive suite of legacy seismic lines, including the SITHERE (1985), CS (1989), CROP (1995), and MEDOC and CHIANTI (2010 and 2015) surveys. We then converted Two-Way Travel time (TWT) into depth, integrating a robust velocity-depth model generated from five 2D seismic reflection profiles with coincident refraction data collected during the Spanish Survey MEDOC/CHIANTI. The resulting Moho geometry and the boundaries of mantle exhumation are validated and constrained by a synthesis of borehole data from DSDP, ODP (Sites 651 and 655), and the recent IODP Expedition 402 (Sites U1612, U1615, and U1616).

Our mapping reveals that a prominent, high-amplitude reflector is consistently observed across the region, typically occurring around 7s TWT. Once converted into depth, this interface deepens toward the continental margins and shallows toward the basin centres. In the Vavilov Basin, where mantle exhumation has been confirmed by drilling (U1614, U1616, and 651), we have identified reflectors within the exhumed basement. Notably, as imaged by the MEDOC-9 seismic profile crossing the heterogeneous exhumed domain at IODP Site U1612, one of these reflectors is sub-horizontal and truncates a set of rotated reflectors, suggesting a possible complex fault-like feature within the mantle.

The identified reflectors occurring within the mantle may be either a tectonic or hydrothermal boundary, such as a serpentinization front or a major detachment fault within the exhumed domains. Spatial correlations between Moho shallowing and the thinning of Messinian units indicate that the most intense phase of crustal thinning and mantle exhumation in the Vavilov Basin occurred shortly after the Messinian. Our new 3D Moho contour map provides a refined geodynamic framework for constraining the timing and magnitude of lithospheric extension in this back-arc region and for guiding future geodynamic modelling.   

How to cite: Yang, L., Prada, M., Ranero, C. R., Loreto, M. F., and Zitellini, N.: Mapping the Moho Geometry around the exhumated mantle in the Tyrrhenian Sea: A Synthesis of Multi-vintage Seismic Data and DSDP/ODP/IODP Drilling Results, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13194, 2026.

EGU26-13499 | Posters on site | TS2.1

Consequences of Elevated Pre-Rift Lithosphere Geotherm on the Rifting and Breakup of the South China Sea 

Nick Kusznir, Brian Taylor, Francois Sapin, Cuimei Zhang, Gianreto Manatschal, and Pauline Chenin

Before Oligocene continental breakup at ~30 Ma, the South China Sea (SCS) lithosphere had an elevated geotherm following Cretaceous northward subduction of Pacific or Proto-SCS oceanic lithosphere under the continental South China block resulting in an Andean style orogeny and volcanic arc. We examine the consequences of this elevated geotherm on SCS crustal thickness determined from gravity inversion and determine the amount of lithosphere extension required for continental breakup and sea-floor spreading initiation.

Subsidence analysis of the northern SCS rifted margin shows up to 2 km subsidence of the base Oligocene unconformity to the present day that cannot be explained by observed extensional faulting and that we attribute to thermal subsidence from a very large pre-breakup lithosphere thermal perturbation. Parameterising the magnitude of this thermal perturbation by a McKenzie β factor requires a very large β factor > 4.

SCS crustal thickness predicted from gravity inversion incorporating an elevated pre-Oligocene lithosphere geotherm (GI model P3) is compared with that produced using an equilibrium initial lithosphere (GI model K1b). For very thinned continental crust and oceanic crust, GI models K1b and P3 give similar Moho depths that calibrate well against seismic reflection Moho depth. GI model K1b produces Moho depths consistently too deep (~ 5 km) for the northern SCS margin. In contrast GI model P3 with an elevated pre-rift geotherm produces Moho depths that calibrate well against seismic observations.

We examine profiles crossing the SCS to determine how much extension is required to stretch and thin continental lithosphere to generate continental breakup and initiate sea-floor spreading? Cumulative extension is calculated by integrating lithosphere thinning factor (1-1/β) determined by gravity inversion using GI model P3. Measured lithosphere extension prior to continental breakup and sea-floor spreading initiation in the SCS ranges between 303 km in the east and 558 km in the west predicted by GI model P3. In contrast measured lithosphere extension prior to rupture and separation of continental crust on the Iberia-Newfoundland conjugate rifted margins is 180 +/-20 km. Substantially more extension of continental crust (>200%) occurs before continental crustal breakup in the SCS compared with that between the Iberia and Newfoundland Atlantic margins

Our gravity inversion predicts a very wide region of continental crust with thicknesses between 25 and 10 km in the SCS, very much wider than for Atlantic type margins, due to a weak inherited SCS lithosphere rheology. The hot lithosphere geotherm prior to rifting and breakup gives a weak lithosphere rheology favouring extensional boudinage of the continental crust rather than crustal rupture and separation. Hot SCS lithosphere deformation contrasts with colder Atlantic Ocean type margins (e.g. Iberia-Newfoundland) where colder and stronger lithosphere rheology generates necking and focussing of lithosphere stretching and thinning.

How to cite: Kusznir, N., Taylor, B., Sapin, F., Zhang, C., Manatschal, G., and Chenin, P.: Consequences of Elevated Pre-Rift Lithosphere Geotherm on the Rifting and Breakup of the South China Sea, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13499, 2026.

EGU26-13577 | Posters on site | TS2.1

SOSEM, South Santos Seismic and modelling experiment: analyzing rift-plume interaction during break-up - Preliminary results. 

Marta Perez-Gussinye, Jenny S. Collier, Yuhan Li, Tim Minshull, Jenny Duckworth, Yuan Nie, Sergio Fontes, Adelvison Alves, Gilberto Neto, Ingo Grevemeyer, Mario Araujo, Maryline Moulin, and Daniel Aslanian

What are the factors that control the generation and emplacement of magma during the rifting and breakup of continents? The Southeastern margin of Brazil along the South Atlantic Ocean offers an unprecedented opportunity to analyze this question. Here, the Tristan mantle plume appears to have exerted a significant influence on the magmatic processes associated with rifting. Yet, the influence of the plume on magmatism was spatially variable and heterogeneous along the margin. The basins south of the Rio Grande Fracture Zone (RGFZ) show clear evidence of magma-rich rifting, characterised by seaward-dipping reflectors and lower crustal magmatic intrusions emplaced during rifting. However, to the north of the RGFZ, the Santos and Campos Basins, generally lack the typical features of magma-rich margins. This asymmetric distribution of magmatism around the original plume head, differs from the classical view of plume-rift interaction which assumes that volcanism should be symmetrically distributed with respect to the plume head, as observed in the North Atlantic1.

To unravel the geological controls on the spatio-temporal distribution of magmatism during rifting, we carried out a wide-angle seismic experiment across the transitional zone between the Santos and Pelotas basins in November 2025. This area has been well-imaged with deep commercial MCS imaging (e.g. [2]). However, information on the nature of the crust is currently lacking and questions persist on the compositional nature of the São Paulo plateau, which has been interpreted as either extended and potentially intruded continental crust (e.g. [3], [4]) or as an oceanic plateau5.

During cruise MSM141 on board the R/V Maria S. Merian we acquired three wide-angle lines overlapping with pre-existing ION-GXT multichannel seismic lines 150 and 140 across the margin and 220 across the RGFZ. In total, 126 stations were deployed at ~8.5 km spacing. Simultaneously, 29 onshore stations were deployed along a ~200-km-long transect aligned with line 150. These three-component broadband stations were spaced 5-10 km apart and operated continuously at 250 Hz for up to 42 days. During shooting, an airgun array with a total volume of 64 L (4,160 in3) was used as the seismic source. The seismic experiment aims to reveal how magmatism changed with distance from the RGFZ, and the crustal nature of the Abimael Ridge and of the São Paulo Plateau. Our specific goals are to understand the 3D kinematic history of the area, and the role of the preexisting lithospheric structure and the RGFZ in controlling the spatio-temporal distribution of magmatism. The project has been funded by DFG and Petrobras and will include seismic tomography of the wide angle data and numerical modelling of the opening of this area of the South Atlantic.

References

Morgan, J. P. et al. (2020). PNAS, 117(45), 27877-27883. doi:10.1073/pnas.2012246117

McDermott et al. (2019). EPSL, 521, 14-24. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2019.05.049

Evain et al., 2015. JGR, v. 120, p. 5401–5431.

Araujo et al. (2022). Geol. Soc. Lon. Spec. Publ., 524(1). doi:10.1144/SP524-2021-123

Karner et al. 2021, in Marcio R. Mello, Pinar O. Yilmaz, and Barry J. Katz, eds., AAPG Memoir 124, p.215–256.

How to cite: Perez-Gussinye, M., Collier, J. S., Li, Y., Minshull, T., Duckworth, J., Nie, Y., Fontes, S., Alves, A., Neto, G., Grevemeyer, I., Araujo, M., Moulin, M., and Aslanian, D.: SOSEM, South Santos Seismic and modelling experiment: analyzing rift-plume interaction during break-up - Preliminary results., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13577, 2026.

EGU26-13740 | Orals | TS2.1

Multi-Physics Imaging of the Goban Spur Magma-Poor Rifted Margin: New Constraints on Breakup Processes Across the Continent–Ocean Transition 

Gaye Bayrakci, Tim A. Minshull, Steven Constable, Kyle Ivey, Raghu Ram, Alexander Lane, Marta Perez-Gussinye, and Javier Garcia-Pintado

Magma-poor rifted margins record late-stage continental breakup characterised by extreme thinning, mantle exhumation and serpentinisation, and variable magmatic addition across the continent–ocean transition. Disentangling these processes remains challenging using seismic P-wave velocities alone, because serpentinisation and mafic additions can produce overlapping velocity signatures. Electrical resistivity provides a complementary constraint because serpentinisation is thought to increase conductivity, while mafic additions are expected to generate resistive structures.

In September 2023, we acquired a ~200 km multi-physics geophysical profile across the Goban Spur magma-poor rifted margin offshore Ireland, which records continental breakup and the opening of the Atlantic basin at ~100–125 Ma. We deployed 49 multi-sensor seafloor instruments, most of which recorded wide-angle controlled-source seismic, controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM), and magnetotelluric (MT) data. All data were sampled at 250 Hz. The profile is collinear with two high-quality multichannel seismic (MCS) reflection profiles acquired in 2013 and 2024.

Seismic traveltime tomography images a sharp transition from >10 km-thick continental crust to an exhumed mantle domain where pristine peridotite velocities are reached at ~4 km below the seabed, implying the presence of a ~3-4 km-thick zone comprising of serpentinised peridotite beneath the thin (< 1 km) sediment cover. Additional tomographic constraints come from refracted arrivals in the MCS streamer data. This transition coincides with a lateral decrease in resistivity inferred from MT inversions. Toward the oceanward end of the profile, magnetic anomaly C33r marks the transition to oceanic crust; oceanward of C33r, velocities indicate a more complex structure than typical mature oceanic crust, remaining similar to those in the exhumed mantle domain. MT inversions at the oceanward end further reveal a shallow lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB) at ~55–60 km depth expressed as a sharp increase in conductivity, which we interpret as due to the presence of partial melt. This shallow LAB is consistent with independent surface-wave constraints and is potentially sustained by ongoing small-scale convection as suggested by geodynamic modelling. These multi-physics results provide new constraints on lithospheric structure and breakup processes at a magma-poor rifted margin.

How to cite: Bayrakci, G., Minshull, T. A., Constable, S., Ivey, K., Ram, R., Lane, A., Perez-Gussinye, M., and Garcia-Pintado, J.: Multi-Physics Imaging of the Goban Spur Magma-Poor Rifted Margin: New Constraints on Breakup Processes Across the Continent–Ocean Transition, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13740, 2026.

EGU26-13752 | ECS | Orals | TS2.1

Along-rift variations in magma system geometry observed using Sentinel-1 InSAR data from the East African Rift System 

Ben Ireland, Juliet Biggs, Fabien Albino, and William Hutchison

Volcano deformation signals detected using InSAR can be used to infer and contrast magmatic system geometry between volcanoes, although their observations present only a brief ‘snapshot’ of the system in geological time. Thus, whilst varying deformation signals may reflect ‘permanent’ differences in magmatic system architecture between systems, they may also simply reflect temporal variability in activity within otherwise similar systems. On geological timescales, magmatic system processes are controlled by tectonics, chiefly crustal properties and mantle melt supply, whereas their shorter-term activity is controlled by the relative strengths of the interacting mafic, tectonic, and silicic parts of the system, varying on timescales of 10s, 100s and 1000s of years, respectively.

Here, using this framework, we combine systematic InSAR-based analytical modelling with additional geochemical and geophysical observations to 16 deforming volcanoes in the Eastern Branch of the East African Rift System (EARS), to assess the prevalence and ‘permanence’ of along-rift variations in magma system geometry. The EARS is characterised by a wide variety of volcanism, rift tectonics, and deformation signals; mature continental rifts with large, central silicic caldera systems, thick crust (25-40 km), and low spreading rates (2-5 mm/yr) further south give way to nascent seafloor spreading ridges further north predominantly mafic volcanism, thinner crust (15-25 km), and higher spreading rates (10-17 mm/yr). The impacts of these variations on volcano deformation signals are important for understanding how architecture and activity of magmatic systems varies along-rift, and for the first time, routinely acquired and processed Sentinel-1 InSAR data presents the opportunity assess them.

To model each signal, we compare up to 9 possible source geometries, assessing model preference using Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The modelled deformation sources show a systematic change in melt geometry from dominantly horizontal in the mature continental rifts to vertical in the Erta Ale Volcanic Range (EAVR), indicating structural differences in magmatic system architecture. The extent and magnitude of deformation signals in the Kenyan Rift and Central Main Ethiopian Rift (MER) are also generally larger than in the EAVR during this period. Elsewhere, differences between the Northern and Central MER are attributed to temporal variability. Overall, along-rift differences in deformation patterns are attributed to both temporal variability and permanent differences in magmatic system architecture, with the latter influenced by crustal thickness and melt supply, impacting melt residence times and fractionation.

How to cite: Ireland, B., Biggs, J., Albino, F., and Hutchison, W.: Along-rift variations in magma system geometry observed using Sentinel-1 InSAR data from the East African Rift System, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13752, 2026.

EGU26-13890 | Orals | TS2.1

A method to check the structural coherence of magma-poor rifted margins seismic interpretations: application to the Iberian margin 

Pauline Chenin, Nick J. Kusznir, Mark G. Rowan, and Gianreto Manatschal

During continental rifting, two main types of faults accommodate crustal extension and thinning, namely high-angle normal faults and large-offset (“low-angle”) detachment faults. Classical interpretations of Atlantic-type rifted margins assume a predominance of high-angle normal faults in the proximal margin and of extensional detachment faults in the most distal domain; however, the structural interpretation of the so-called necking domain in between remains disputed.

Identifying high-angle faults and extensional detachment faults at rifted margins is challenging because: (1) seismic reflection images may not allow interpreters to indisputably locate the top basement and/or recognize syn-tectonic sedimentary sequences; and (2) the interpretation of extensional detachment faults is often debatable due to their faint topographic and stratigraphic expressions and the common overprint of their exhumed footwall by high-angle normal faults or erosion. Yet, the accurate identification of high-angle and extensional detachment faults is crucial for understanding the stratigraphic, thermal and isostatic evolutions of rift systems, all of which are fundamental to successful predictions.

We present a methodology to interpret crustal-scale seismic reflection images of magma-poor rifted margins and test the reliability of structural interpretations via geometrical criteria. We use TGS line 140 located offshore Portugal, north of the Peniche peninsula, as a case study. 

How to cite: Chenin, P., Kusznir, N. J., Rowan, M. G., and Manatschal, G.: A method to check the structural coherence of magma-poor rifted margins seismic interpretations: application to the Iberian margin, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13890, 2026.

EGU26-14128 | Posters on site | TS2.1

 The Newfoundland margin crust: Understanding the Atlantic rifting. 

Laura Gómez de la Peña, César R. Ranero, Manel Prada, Irene Merino, Donna Shillington, and Valentí Sallarès

The structure of the Newfoundland–West Iberian conjugate margins has been extensively studied during the past 50 years in hundreds of papers. The crustal structure has been evaluated through seismic surveys and drilling expeditions, but those are not equally distributed in Iberia and Newfoundland. More work, and in particular recent studies on the West Iberian margin, have identified a complex crustal architecture characterised by continental, oceanic, and exhumed mantle domains that vary along the margin. This structural complexity has only been recently documented with modern data that allow to image the basement domains in detail.

In contrast, the Newfoundland basement remains comparatively less well understood due to a relative scarcity of seismic and drilling data. The main wide-angle and streamer data for this area, the SCREECH survey, were acquired in 2000 and modelled under the computational limitations of that time. The resulting models and images have been subject to debate and failed to unequivocally define the nature of the basement domains of the margins. This uncertainty has left open key questions regarding the evolution of deformation during rifting and, thus, also the degree of symmetry of this conjugate pair of margins.

The SCREECH acquisition parameters were similar to modern marine acquisition standards. We leveraged their inherent data quality with the current computational facilities and up-to-date methodologies to re-process the data, imaging the structure and modelling seismic phases. Recent advancements in parallel computing and novel geophysical techniques now allow for enhanced-resolution seismic models and a mathematically robust uncertainty analysis—tasks that were previously very computationally demanding.

Our study utilises the original SCREECH field data, consisting of three transects with coincident multichannel seismic (MCS) reflection data (6-km streamer) and wide-angle data recorded by short-period OBS and OBH stations at ~15 km spacing. By performing a joint inversion of the streamer and wide-angle data (utilising both reflection and refraction arrivals), we significantly improved the definition of geological units and the spatial resolution of the velocity models. A statistical uncertainty analysis was conducted to validate the reliability of these observed features.

Our findings reveal previously unrecognised crustal heterogeneity at the Newfoundland margin, including significant variations in thickness and composition along the margin. Notably, we challenge prior classifications of the crustal domains and the location and dimensions of the Continent-Ocean Transition (COT). Previous models identified an intra-basement deep reflector as the Moho, defining a 4–5 km thick layer interpreted as continental crust. However, our results suggest this reflector may not represent the Moho, as the observed crustal properties are inconsistent with typical continental or oceanic crust, and rather support a COT formed by >250 km of exhumed mantle. By integrating MCS imagery with these new velocity models, we provide a re-interpretation of the margin’s crustal structure and propose a refined evolutionary model for the West Iberian–Newfoundland conjugate system.

How to cite: Gómez de la Peña, L., R. Ranero, C., Prada, M., Merino, I., Shillington, D., and Sallarès, V.:  The Newfoundland margin crust: Understanding the Atlantic rifting., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14128, 2026.

We investigate the magnetic structure of the M-series and J-anomaly oceanic crust in the Central Atlantic with the integration of seismic data in magnetic anomaly modelling. We find that traditional magnetic models of oceanic crust, which assume uniform layers with constant magnetization and geomagnetic polarity reversals, fail to explain the observed anomalies, especially the lack of high-frequency reversals. This suggests that the complex 3D crustal structure created at slow to intermediate spreading rates plays a significant role in the anomaly patterns, because faulting and magmatic processes act as geological filters. Our new modelling approach includes defining the magnetic structure using the crustal seismic structure to adjust the magnetic layer thickness, and laterally varying the magnetization intensity. We explain the high amplitude of the J-anomaly due to a Fe-Ti enrichment in the magma and not to increases in layer thickness as previously proposed. We also discover a previously unrecognized K-anomaly, younger than the J-anomaly. We provide a new kinematic reconstruction of the central Atlantic showing asymmetry in the magnetic and crustal structure between the African and American plates. These findings emphasize the importance of combining seismic data to realistically model magnetic data and better understand crustal formation at slow-spreading ridges.

This work has been funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation MCIN/AEI under project ATLANTIS (ref. PID2019-109559RB-I00), and by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia FCT, I.P. / MCTES under project LISA (https://doi.org/10.54499/PTDC/CTA-GEF/1666/2020) and through national funds (PIDDAC): LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020), UID/50019/2025  (https://doi.org /10.54499/UID/PRR/50019/2025), UID/PRR2/50019/2025.

How to cite: Neres, M. and Ranero, C.: Magnetic modelling of the J-anomaly in the Central Atlantic constrains the structure of slow-spreading oceanic crust, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15111, 2026.

As the proximal zone of the passive continental margin in the northern South China Sea, the Zhu I Depression developed on the complex basement of the pre-Cenozoic active continental margin. It has long been located at the intersection of the West Pacific and Paleo-Tethys tectonic domains, characterized by a complex basin-forming setting, multiple stages of tectonic evolution, and significant spatiotemporal differences in its fault system. Based on seismic data interpretation, tectonic physical modeling, and regional tectonic analysis, this study systematically explores the controlling effect of the matching relationship between pre-existing faults and late-stage Cenozoic regional stress field on the fault system. Results show that: (1) Multiple superimposed "compression-extension-strike-slip" tectonic movements during the Mesozoic Indosinian and Yanshanian periods generated NE- and NW-trending pre-existing faults in the Cenozoic basement of the Zhu I Depression. The distribution density and strike of these basement faults controlled the spatial pattern of the Cenozoic fault system, with pre-existing faults being "dense in the east and sparse in the west" and Cenozoic faults "abundant in the northeast and scarce in the southwest", showing an orderly strike transition from NE to E-W to NWW from southwest to northeast. (2) The Cenozoic regional stress field of the Zhu I Depression underwent a clockwise transition: NW-SE extensional (Eocene) → nearly N-S extensional (early Oligocene) → NE-SW extensional (post-late Oligocene). Correspondingly, the dominant strike of the fault system changed from NE (Eocene) to nearly E-W (early Oligocene) and then to NW (post-late Oligocene). (3) Tectonic physical modeling reveals that stage-specific and direction-selective reactivation of NE- and NW-trending pre-existing faults under varying regional stress conditions caused the spatiotemporal differences in the Cenozoic fault system. Under Eocene NW-SE extension, NE-trending pre-existing faults were reactivated as depression-controlling faults, while NW-trending basement faults acted as weak vertical transfer zones, leading to segmented NE-trending faults with slight strike-slip components.During early Oligocene nearly N-S extension, NE-trending faults continued normal faulting with weakened intensity, while NW-trending faults intensified. Under oblique extension, both showed combined strike-slip-extensional characteristics, with new nearly E-W extensional faults or "arc-shaped" faults formed at conjugate positions. Post-late Oligocene, with NE-SW extension, NW-trending faults became dominant with enhanced activity, while NE- and NEE-trending faults diminished and became extinct.This indicates that selective reactivation of NE- and NW-trending basement pre-existing faults during the clockwise transition of the regional stress field from the Wenchang to Enping periods is the primary factor controlling the differential development of the Cenozoic fault system in the Zhu I Depression.

How to cite: Ma, C. and Wu, Z.: Matching Relationship Between Pre-existing Faults and Regional Stress Field Controls the Differential Development of the Cenozoic Fault System in the Zhu I Depression, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15587, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15587, 2026.

   The growth and linkage of basin-bounding normal faults play a pivotal role in controlling the structural architecture and tectono-stratigraphic evolution of rift basins. High quality, well-constrained 3D seismic data from the Xihu sag, East China Sea Basin document the growth history and transtensional reactivation of the basin-bounding fault system along the Western Slope Zone. The Pinghu fault system in the Xihu Sag is characterized by pronounced segmentation and progressive segment linkage, comprising six major fault segments that together define an overall “X”-shaped fault zone. 
   Our analysis identifies three distinct evolutionary stages: (1) isolated segment growth, characterized by independently evolving NNE-striking segments; (2) soft linkage, during which interactions between overlapping segments led to the formation of relay ramps; and (3) hard linkage, when continued displacement accumulation resulted in the breaching of relay ramps and the development of a through-going basin-bounding fault zone. This multi-stage fault evolution was jointly controlled by segmented fault growth during Eocene rifting and subsequent rotation of the regional stress field.
   The spatiotemporal evolution of the Pinghu fault exerted a first-order control on syn-rift sedimentation within the Pinghu Formation. During the fault linkage stage, intact relay ramps functioned as a key sediment entry pathways, channeling sediment supply into the basin and controlling the distribution of deltaic sandbodies. Progressive fault growth and linkage strongly influenced syn-depositional architectures: variations in thickness and facies within the Pinghu Formation record shifting depocenters and sedimentary responses to evolving fault activity.
   This study demonstrates the critical importance of basin-bounding fault segmentation and linkage histories in controlling sand-body distribution and understanding the tectono-sedimentary coupling processes in continental marginal rift basins.

How to cite: Zheng, J., Wu, Z., and Miocic, J.: Growth and Linkage of a Basin-Bounding Normal Fault System: Insights from the Pinghu Fault, Xihu Sag, East China Sea Basin, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16764, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16764, 2026.

EGU26-16781 | ECS | Orals | TS2.1 | Highlight

The Importance of Past Rifting in Large Igneous Province Development: Insights from the Turkana Depression, East Africa  

Rita Kounoudis, Ian Bastow, Cindy Ebinger, Saskia Goes, Pengzhe Zhou, Martin Musila, Christopher Ogden, and Atalay Ayele

Lithospheric thin zones, such as recently failed rifts, are generally assumed to be weak spots where magmatism and deformation can concentrate during rifting and large igneous province development. Yet, the Turkana Depression in East Africa, the site of the failed 66-million-year-old Anza Rift, did not experience the widespread flood magmatism seen on the adjacent Ethiopian Plateau, despite being a lithospheric thin spot when the region encountered hot plume material around 45 million years ago. Using data from the 2019-2021 Turkana Rift Arrays Investigating Lithospheric Structure (TRAILS) project and surrounding seismograph networks we jointly invert surface-wave and receiver function data to constrain crustal and upper-mantle seismic structure and evaluate lithospheric thermo-mechanical modification. Evidence for thick lower crustal intrusions, ubiquitous below the uplifted Ethiopian Plateau, is comparatively lacking below the Depression’s failed Anza Rift system, which ongoing East African rifting is circumnavigating, not exploiting. The mantle lithosphere below the Depression has also retained its cool, fast-wavespeed ‘lid’ character, contrasting the Ethiopian Plateau. Volatile depletion during failed Anza rifting probably rendered the thinned lithosphere refractory without later rejuvenation. Subsequent rifting and magmatism thus initiated away from the still-thin Anza Rift, in regions where fertile lithosphere enabled melting and the sufficient lowering of plate yield strength. Areas of thinned lithosphere are thus not necessarily persistent weak zones where significant extension and magmatic provinces will develop.

 

Kounoudis, R., Bastow, I.D., Ebinger, C.J. et al. The importance of past rifting in large igneous province development. Nature 647, 115–120 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09668-7

How to cite: Kounoudis, R., Bastow, I., Ebinger, C., Goes, S., Zhou, P., Musila, M., Ogden, C., and Ayele, A.: The Importance of Past Rifting in Large Igneous Province Development: Insights from the Turkana Depression, East Africa , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16781, 2026.

EGU26-17705 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

LAB depth constraints from the Turkana Depression, East African Rift: implications for rifting and magmatism development in lithospheric thin spots, from S-to-p receiver functions 

Laurene Ville, Ian Bastow, Meghan Miller, Rita Kounoudis, Bryony Renwick, and Cynthia Ebinger

The East African Rift provides a natural laboratory to study the influence of pre-existing lithospheric thin spots on the development of rifting and hotspot tectonism. Below the Ethiopian Rift and elevated Ethiopian Plateau, extensive magmatic and thermal modification due to Eocene-Oligocene flood basalt magmatism and Miocene-Recent rifting has resulted in slow lithospheric mantle velocities (< 4.1km/s; Dugda et al., 2007, JGR). In contrast, below the previously rifted, lower-lying Turkana Depression to the south, the lithospheric mantle appears relatively unmodified (4.2-4.8 km/s; Kounoudis et al., 2023, EPSL), despite being underlain by hot, mantle plume material. Important in this picture are detailed constraints on the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB).

Why the Turkana Depression, and particularly the failed Anza Rift terranes, remained resistant to thermal and magmatic modification, is debated. Although the Turkana Depression was a lithospheric thin spot at the onset of plume magmatism, Cenozoic rifting is now circumnavigating, not exploiting, the Anza Rift terranes (Musila et al., 2023, G3). Lithospheric thin spots therefore don't necessarily mark weak zones that are exploited by subsequent rifting and magmatism. One hypothesis for the apparently refractory nature of the Anza lithosphere is that Mesozoic rifting removed easily fusible phases, suppressing subsequent melting and associated strain localisation (Kounoudis et al., 2025, Nature).

To test this geodynamic scenario, we calculated teleseismic S-to-p receiver functions and examined lithospheric thickness variations in the Turkana Depression, where the contrast between fast, relatively unmodified lithospheric mantle and slow, partially molten, plume-infiltrated asthenosphere is expected to provide impulsive S-to-p conversions at the LAB. We observe that the least impulsive and shallowest LAB conversions are associated with Miocene-Recent rift zones, and isolated shield volcanoes. Elsewhere, sharper and deeper S-to-p conversions attest to a lithosphere that has resisted thermo-mechanical modification.

How to cite: Ville, L., Bastow, I., Miller, M., Kounoudis, R., Renwick, B., and Ebinger, C.: LAB depth constraints from the Turkana Depression, East African Rift: implications for rifting and magmatism development in lithospheric thin spots, from S-to-p receiver functions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17705, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17705, 2026.

EGU26-17798 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Global rift analysis of tectonic and magmatic characteristics: towards constraining rift-related CO₂ degassing over geological timescales 

Luisa Hirche, Sascha Brune, Christian Heine, Simon Williams, and Anna Jentsch

The release of carbon at plate boundaries strongly influences Earth’s long-term climate over geological timescales. Continental rifts, in particular, are thought to play a major role in CO₂ degassing by activating carbon reservoirs in the deep lithosphere, with magmatic rifting enabling efficient CO₂ transport via carbonate-rich melts, especially during the early stages of rift development (Foley and Fischer, 2017). Substantial uncertainties in global degassing rates remain, as the incomplete geological record limits precise constraints on the timing, magnitude, and controlling factors of rift-related CO₂ release.

To reduce these uncertainties and enable time-dependent estimates of CO₂ degassing at continental rifts worldwide, we quantify first-order rift characteristics that are expected to control CO₂ degassing. Our analysis employs automated geoinformation workflows and builds on a newly compiled global database of more than 1500 Phanerozoic rifting events, providing a systematic framework for quantifying rift properties.

Here, we focus on three key characteristics: (I) proximity to cratonic lithosphere as an indicator of access to deep carbon reservoirs, (II) crustal thickness as a proxy for rift maturity and tectonic evolution, and (III) the distinction between magmatic and non-magmatic rifting styles, as provided by the global rift database, reflecting differences in the role of magma and volatile transport pathways. Crustal thickness and craton proximity are evaluated using multiple global crustal models and alternative craton boundary interpretations. These characteristics are linked to published present-day CO₂ flux measurements from active rift systems to derive relationships between rift properties and degassing rates. In the future, we aim to use these relationships in conjunction with plate tectonic reconstructions to derive global, time-dependent CO₂ degassing estimates throughout Phanerozoic times.

 

References:
Foley, S. F., & Fischer, T. P. (2017). An essential role for continental rifts and lithosphere in the deep carbon cycle. Nature Geoscience, 1. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0002-7

How to cite: Hirche, L., Brune, S., Heine, C., Williams, S., and Jentsch, A.: Global rift analysis of tectonic and magmatic characteristics: towards constraining rift-related CO₂ degassing over geological timescales, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17798, 2026.

EGU26-18129 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Factors controlling the rift basin formation in the Black sea region inferred from geodynamic models 

Ceyda Tonguç, Oğuz Hakan Göğüş, Ömer Bodur, Elif Nihan Çavdar, Can Aslan, and Özge Dinç Göğüş

Geodynamic modeling studies have shown that rift basin formation and their transition to sea floor spreading is controlled by tectonic deformation and surface processes. Furthermore, models are used to identify the controlling factors of symmetric vs asymmetric characteristics of the rift basins and the fault network patterns. Here, we use Black sea rift basin as a case study to test how varying model parameters can help to understand rapid subsidence and crustal stretching as well as up to 14 km of sediment thickness in the region. Namely,  we use high-resolution 2D geodynamic models (ASPECT) coupled with a landscape evolution code (FastScape) to investigate rift development under changing model parameters. We also reconcile model results against a number of geological and seismic reflection data where different types of stretching modes, such as pure vs simple have been described in the eastern and western sub basins. Our geodynamic model results provide important insight into how rifting has evolved in the black sea where thick sedimentary deposits are accumulated and possibly delayed continental break up.  That is, the thick sedimentary cover (Maykop) probably impeded serpentinization (sediment blanket) by modifying thermal structure of the crust. Models also explain the pure shear stretching (basin symmetry) in the eastern sub-basin compared to the west where migration of rift axis has been suggested and causing a broad zone of hyperextended crust.

How to cite: Tonguç, C., Göğüş, O. H., Bodur, Ö., Çavdar, E. N., Aslan, C., and Dinç Göğüş, Ö.: Factors controlling the rift basin formation in the Black sea region inferred from geodynamic models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18129, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18129, 2026.

EGU26-18234 | Orals | TS2.1

Magmatic-tectonic interactions in the Natron rift revealed by seismic anisotropy 

Frederik Link and Miriam Christina Reiss

Oldoinyo Lengai volcano is located the Natron Basin, a young (~3 Ma) magmatic rift segment of the East African Rift System. In this setting, magma transport, lithospheric deformation, and stress distribution are closely coupled, yet their relative roles in controlling volcanic and tectonic processes remain poorly constrained. The coexistence of an unusual natrocarbonatitic magmatic system with nearby silicic and basaltic volcanism points to a complex and evolving magma plumbing architecture that may both respond to and modify the regional stress field. Seismic anisotropy provides a sensitive indicator of stress-aligned fabric, deformation, and melt distribution within the crust and uppermost mantle.

Here, we combine local shear-wave splitting measurements with an inversion of anisotropic receiver functions to investigate stress modification and lithospheric deformation beneath Oldoinyo Lengai and the Natron Rift. We use data from the dense SEISVOL seismic network, spanning the region from Lake Natron to the extinct Gelai shield volcano, the monogentetic cone field Naibor Soito and active Oldoinyo Lengai volcano. We use the eigenvalue minimization method to analyze shear wave splitting of over ~10 000 volcano tectonic earthquakes. This provides a unique data set of shallow crustal anisotropy at unprecedented resolution. Azimuthally varying receiver-function signals are decomposed using harmonic regression and inverted within a probabilistic Bayesian framework, allowing us to resolve complex anisotropic layering and quantify uncertainties.

Our results reveal distinct anisotropic domains within the upper and mid-crust. Across much of the study area, fast-axis orientations align parallel to the rift axis, consistent with regional extensional stress. In contrast, pronounced lateral and depth-dependent variations in fast-axis orientation are observed beneath Oldoinyo Lengai and above a previously imaged sill complex underneath Naibor Soito, indicating localized stress perturbations associated with magmatic processes. These patterns closely correspond to the tension axes derived from focal mechanism solutions and stress modeling. However, local shear-wave splitting provides a much better spatial resolution of stress orientations at the scale of individual earthquake–station pairs and may even be susceptible to temporal changes of the magmatic plumbing system. Together, the combined anisotropic observations provide new constraints on the interaction between rift-related deformation and magmatic plumbing in the Natron Basin highlighting how seismic anisotropy offers substantial advantages to study these processes at high spatial and temporal resolution.

How to cite: Link, F. and Reiss, M. C.: Magmatic-tectonic interactions in the Natron rift revealed by seismic anisotropy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18234, 2026.

EGU26-18425 | ECS | Orals | TS2.1

Early development of a transform fault in a young ocean basin: insights from the Zabargad Fracture Zone, Northern Red Sea 

Margherita Fittipaldi, Adrien Moulin, Daniele Trippanera, Nico Augustin, Froukje van der Zwan, Laura Parisi, Hasbi Shiddiqi, and Sigurjon Jónsson

The Red Sea hosts a young (< 13 Ma) ultra-slow spreading ridge organized into right-stepping segments. The largest ridge offset, about 100 km in the N–S direction, occurs at the transition between the northern and central Red Sea and is known as the Zabargad Fracture Zone (ZFZ). However, its precise geometry and tectonic structure remain poorly determined owing to widespread Miocene evaporites that obscure basement structures. This limited knowledge prevents addressing first-order questions such as: What can we learn about the early development of large ridge offsets from the structure of the ZFZ and its relationships with inherited continental fabrics? What is the seismic hazard posed by this structure for coastal communities, and how does it relate to a reported Mw ~6.5 historical earthquake? To address these questions, we acquired new high-resolution bathymetric data of the ZFZ seafloor, performed detailed mapping of a range of different seafloor structures, and analyzed the outcome in combination with existing geophysical and geological studies. Our results indicate that the ZFZ is composed of one 50-km-long and seismically active transform fault along with smaller non-transform offsets that gradually connect to the Mabahiss Deep spreading center in the northern Red Sea. Moreover, the transform fault runs in continuity with a seismically inactive shear zone that is marked by highly deformed seafloor and extends towards the Saudi coastline before apparently connecting with an inherited Proterozoic shear zone onshore. We propose that this inactive shear zone acted as a transfer zone during the continental rifting phase of the Red Sea. We further reconstructed the early development of the ZFZ by sequentially restoring the oceanic basin to specific time periods. This reconstruction suggests that the initiation of the transform fault was delayed by a few million years relative to the onset of oceanic spreading along nearby ridge segments, an interval during which plate motion was accommodated through an evolving ridge-offset geometry initiated from the transfer zone.

How to cite: Fittipaldi, M., Moulin, A., Trippanera, D., Augustin, N., van der Zwan, F., Parisi, L., Shiddiqi, H., and Jónsson, S.: Early development of a transform fault in a young ocean basin: insights from the Zabargad Fracture Zone, Northern Red Sea, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18425, 2026.

EGU26-19254 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Dynamics of detachment faulting at North Atlantic magma-poor rifted margins 

Irene Merino and Leila Mezri

At continent–ocean transition zones (COTs) of magma-poor rifted margins, the basement is typically shaped by highs and large domes with variable elevation and spacing. These features expose large portions of serpentinized mantle, locally intruded by variable volumes of gabbroic bodies. In these environments, the mantle is exhumed to the seafloor through detachment faulting, which promotes deep hydrothermal fluid circulation and pervasive alteration. However, how hydrothermal processes, magmatic accretion, and detachment faulting interact and evolve over geological timescales remains poorly understood. We address this problem using a 2-D geodynamic model coupled with thermodynamic calculations of water–rock interactions. The model accounts for sedimentation, magmatic accretion, and hydrothermal processes. We focus on the well-documented magma-poor Iberia margin, one of the best documented COTs, supported by extensive geophysical data and deep drilling results. Our simulations reproduce the observed basement morphology through successive episodes of detachment faulting. We find, however, that the development of multiple detachments does not necessarily take place following a flip-flop mode, in which, alternately, oppositely dipping detachments sequentially cut through their predecessors. Instead, deformation may evolve through sequential non-flipping detachment faulting, where polarity remains constant. While the flip-flop mode leads to a geologically symmetrical architecture between conjugate margins, the sequential non-flipping mode results in an asymmetric lithosphere structure, characterized by larger volumes of gabbros on one conjugate margin. The development of one mode or the other depends on the depth at which magma is partitioned across the lithosphere axis and on how faulting redistributes accreted magma and weaker serpentinized mantle. Model predictions for both symmetric (flip-flop) and asymmetric (sequential non-flipping) deformation modes closely match observations, reproducing basement morphology, P-wave velocity (Vp) structure, and the petrological architecture consistent with geological IODP samples from Iberia. This suggests that, in magma-poor settings, first-order Vp variations within the oceanic crust primarily reflect alteration paragenesis and fault geometries rather than mafic-ultramafic distinctions. Consequently, alteration may mask underlying geological differences, with a potentially non-flipping detachment mode that leads to widely spaced domes of exhumed serpentinized mantle at COTs. The choice between these modes hinges on the long-term interplay of axial magma-partitioning, detachment faulting, and hydration processes.

How to cite: Merino, I. and Mezri, L.: Dynamics of detachment faulting at North Atlantic magma-poor rifted margins, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19254, 2026.

The Permo-Triassic Gondwana rift basins of Eastern India formed after the East Gondwana amalgamation, resulting from the collision of India, East Antarctica, and Australia. This study investigates the roles of longitudinal and transverse drainages in supplying Permo-Triassic sediments and delineates the sources that contributed towards sedimentation. Paleocurrent data, petrography of sandstones, heavy mineral chemistry, and monazite geochronology track the axial drainage to the Shillong-Meghalaya Complex, southwest Australia, and transverse drainage to the Chhotanagpur Gneissic Complex, East Antarctica, and Eastern Ghat Metamorphic Belt. Modal analysis of sandstones, along with the mineral chemistry of detrital rutile, tourmaline, and garnet, suggests that granitoids and metamorphic rocks are the primary sources of sediment. The detrital garnet of almandine variety exhibits maximum similarity with that of the Shillong-Meghalaya Complex, East Antarctica, and southwest Australia. The detrital tourmalines of the dravite variety show compositional similarity with the Chhotanagpur Gneissic Complex. The detrital monazites give four age populations: 500-400 Ma, 700-600 Ma, 900-800 Ma, and 1100-1000 Ma. The 900-800 Ma age population is dominant and occurs in all the formations. The 1100-1000 Ma and 500-400 Ma age populations are the second most abundant and show considerable variation in appearance. The age populations of detrital monazite from 500-400 Ma and 1100-900 Ma, as well as the similarity in garnet chemistry with the Shillong Meghalaya Granite Complex in East Antarctica and southwestern Australia, indicate that the sediment supply was dominated by longitudinal drainage during the early Permian Barakar Formation. The absence of 500-400 Ma age groups in the overlying middle Permian Barren Measures Formations suggests that supply from longitudinal drainage became subordinate. The late Permian Raniganj Formation, with the reappearance of Cambrian ages, indicates axial drainage became active again. The Triassic Panchet Formation, with age groups of 500-400 Ma, 700-600 Ma, and 1100-900 Ma, suggests that supply came from both proximal and distal sources actively. This study, therefore, establishes that the interplay of axial and transverse drainages brought sediments into the Permo-Triassic Gondwana Basins of Eastern India from a unified East Gondwana.

How to cite: Dutta, A. and Banerjee, S.: Role of axial and transverse drainages in sedimentation of the Permo-Triassic rift basins at the eastern continental margin of India: Implications for East-Gondwana reconstruction, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20195, 2026.

EGU26-21605 | Posters on site | TS2.1

Current and past state of the Reykjanes ridge, from Bight to Langjökull SW Iceland. Magmatic and tectonic evolution 

Armann Hoskuldsson, Fernando Martinez, Ingibjörg Jónsdóttir, and Þorvaldur Þordarson

In this presentation, we shall present results from studies of the Reykjanes Ridge (RR). RR is a continuous plate boundary extending some 1200 km from the Bight in the south to the north of Langjökull, Iceland. The boundary is oblique to the current plate motion. The RR has been mapped by multibeam techniques from the Bight fracture zone in the south to the Reykjanes peninsula. On land, however, the part of it that includes Reykjanes and extends to the Langjökull area in SW Iceland has been mapped by satellite techniques and photogrammetry. Thus, we have compiled all data for a morphometric study of its evolution. In this presentation, we shall focus on the past 1 Ma. The southernmost part of RR is characterised by a deep, well-defined rift valley, about 15 km wide, populated by en-echelon AVRs, extending to about 59° north. From there to Reykjanes (63.8° north), rift valleys are discontinuous and shallow, with densely populated and overlapping AVRs. On Reykjanes itself, the plate boundary becomes highly oblique, characterised by en-echelon fissures and AVRs, until it reaches the Hengill area (64° north). From Hengill to Langjökull (64.9° north), the system comprises shallow-to-deep rift valleys that widen to the north (13 → 30 km wide), with parallel AVRs. North of Langjökull, there is no clear evidence of RR continuation. The heading of different segments of the RR varies: from Bight to the Icelandic continental shelf at ~36°, on the continental shelf at ~50°, on the Reykjanes peninsula at ~65°, and from Hengill to its end at ~36°. At the same time, the spreading along the RR is at ~99°. The number of AVRs and thus magma production varies along the RR, being smallest in the south and increasing towards the north.

How to cite: Hoskuldsson, A., Martinez, F., Jónsdóttir, I., and Þordarson, Þ.: Current and past state of the Reykjanes ridge, from Bight to Langjökull SW Iceland. Magmatic and tectonic evolution, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21605, 2026.

EGU26-23214 | ECS | Posters on site | TS2.1

Mechanical evolution of the wide diamond-shaped Española linkage zone, Rio Grande Rift: insights from structural analysis and analogue modelling 

Nicolas Dall Asta, Yoann Denèle, Monica Hernandez Leal, Vincent Regard, Anne Frayssignes, Bastien Hermant, Stéphane Bonnet, Mael Derian, Delphine Rouby, Paul Angrand, and Mathieu Bellanger

In heterogeneous continental lithosphere, rifts propagate by growth and linkage of discrete segments. Linkage zone geometries reflect this process with different segment overlaps, kinematics, and mechanical properties. Recently, analogue and numerical models compared to natural examples (East African and West European rifts) have allowed significant progresses in understanding the localized transfer zones. Here, we focus instead on wide linkage zones in exceptionally hot crust settings, which is relevant for geothermal exploration.

The Rio Grande Rift is a relatively narrow intra-mountainous system, active since the Miocene, contemporaneous with the Basin and Range extension. Despite substantial extension, rift basins remain at high elevations (>1000 m) with inherited rift shoulders reaching up to ~3700 m. These high elevations and Moho temperatures (800-900°C), indicate significant dynamic support.

To investigate linkage kinematics and strain distribution, we compared analogue models inspired from and structural analysis from DEM-derived fault trajectories and published slip data of the Española basin, a 60-km-wide linkage zone connecting the San Luis and Albuquerque segments. We tested various model rheologies (sand-silicone ratios) and extension velocities to assess their impact on the rift architecture, strain partitioning and fault network.  Our approach aims to constrain the 3D strain field evolution in the linkage zones and highlight the role of crustal rheology and inherited structures on the linkage zone geometry.

The NE-SW trending Española basin comprises early-rift grabens and half-grabens preserved, beneath younger volcano-sedimentary deposits, as ‘embayments’ along the basin margins. Seismic data reveals a two-stage evolution. The early wide rift stage (30-15 Ma) produced distributed shallow basins above low-angle normal faults, consistent with the extension of a thermally weakened crust after the Oligocene magmatism. The late narrow-rift stage (15 Ma-present) showed higher extension rates and high-angle normal faults, with thicker and narrower basins. Española basin is bounded by the NE-SW trending Embudo and Tijeras left-lateral fault systems. Within the linkage zone, fault traces are both concave and convex, indicating a rotational strain component. Late-rift faulting forms multi-scale en-echelon patterns resulting from interaction between the N-S intra-basin faults and the oblique border faults.

Xenolith studies documented Miocene crustal rheological changes: Oligocene crustal melting produced progressive granulitization and mechanical strengthening of the lower crust, which could have caused the localization of deformation during late rifting.

Analogue sand-silicone models with a brittle-ductile transition at 5-10 km depth reproduced the Española basin architecture. The distributed deformation across then multiple N-S to NE-SW sub-basins, matching the observed alternation of narrow half-graben and graben tips forming ‘embayment’. Rotational strain in the linkage zone, produce convex-concave faults similar to those observed in the Española basin. Increasing extension velocity promotes strain localization, particularly along the NE-SW left-lateral fault, replicating the present-day strain pattern.

These results demonstrate that the Española basin formed by rift segment linkage under simple orthogonal extension with increasing strain rate and progressive strengthening of the crust. Segment propagation drove a progressive tip rotation, oblique faulting, and localized strike-slip motion. The models reveal high fault connectivity within the linkage zones, with significant implications for geothermal exploration.

How to cite: Dall Asta, N., Denèle, Y., Hernandez Leal, M., Regard, V., Frayssignes, A., Hermant, B., Bonnet, S., Derian, M., Rouby, D., Angrand, P., and Bellanger, M.: Mechanical evolution of the wide diamond-shaped Española linkage zone, Rio Grande Rift: insights from structural analysis and analogue modelling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-23214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-23214, 2026.

EGU26-477 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

Stress interactions in seismogenic faults through the lens of physics-based earthquake cycle simulations 

Constanza Rodriguez Piceda, Zoë Mildon, Billy Andrews, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Martijn van den Ende, Yifan Yin, Claudia Sgambato, and Francesco Visini

Recurrence intervals and magnitude distributions of earthquakes are key parameters in probabilistic and time-dependent seismic hazard assessments, yet they are difficult to constrain because the time window of instrumental and paleoseismic records often capture only a smaller fraction of the earthquake cycle of large earthquakes. Physics-based seismic cycle simulators can help to overcome these limitations by generating synthetic catalogues that span thousands of years, offering valuable insights into the statistical behaviour of fault networks. Despite the increasing use of these simulators, the physical mechanisms governing earthquake timing and size distributions remain incompletely understood, in particular the role of fault interactions and spatial variations in long-term slip rates.
Here we use the boundary-element code QDYN to simulate earthquake cycles on normal fault networks of increasing geological complexity, ranging from simplified two-fault configurations to realistic fault networks derived from field data in the Central and Southern Apennines (Italy). Our results show that both fault geometry and slip-rate variability critically influence earthquake recurrence and magnitude distributions. Networks with multiple across-strike interactions produce more complex seismic sequences, irregular recurrence intervals, and broader ranges of rupture sizes and moment magnitudes (Mw) compared to simpler configurations. Similarly, spatially variable slip-rate profiles promote diverse rupture behaviours, including partial ruptures and slow-slip events, that increase variability in stress redistribution, magnitude-frequency relationships and recurrence times. In contrast, models using uniform slip-rate profiles tend to produce regular recurrence patterns and characteristic earthquake magnitudes. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating realistic fault geometries and spatially variable slip rates in physics-based earthquake simulators used to inform seismic hazard assessments.

How to cite: Rodriguez Piceda, C., Mildon, Z., Andrews, B., Ampuero, J.-P., van den Ende, M., Yin, Y., Sgambato, C., and Visini, F.: Stress interactions in seismogenic faults through the lens of physics-based earthquake cycle simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-477, 2026.

EGU26-1206 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.2

Quantifying Off-Fault Plastic Strain in 3D Dynamic Rupture Models: Insights from the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake 

Rachel Preca Trapani, Yann Klinger, Mathilde Marchandon, Sébastien Hok, Oona Scotti, and Alice-Agnes Gabriel

The 2023 Turkey earthquake sequence generated widespread off-fault deformation. Recent 3D InSAR analyses of the doublet sequence show that ~35% of coseismic slip was accommodated by off-fault deformation extending up to 5 – 7 km from the fault (Liu et al., 2025). These observations, coined Absent Surface Displacement (ASD), may highlight the complex interplay between off-fault deformation, geometric fault complexity, and near-surface off-fault material properties. Quantifying how such deformation patterns emerge, and whether numerical earthquake models can capture their spatial organisation, remains an open question. 

In this study, we investigate the relationship between InSAR-derived ASD patterns from the MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş rupture and synthetic off-fault plastic strain fields, which represent distributed inelastic yielding of the surrounding medium under dynamic rupture loading. This is generated in a suite of six different 3D dynamic rupture simulations with non-associative off-fault Drucker-Prager plasticity. These models extend on those presented in Gabriel et al. (2023) and incorporate varying on-fault frictional and structural complexities, such as fault roughness or fault waviness, variable fracture energy through different frictional parameters, and supershear initiation rupture speeds. We analyse fault-normal profiles along the geometrically complex rupture trace, and explore approaches for quantifying along-strike variability in inelastic yielding regions, plastic strain distribution and deformation asymmetry. Our analysis focuses on exploring whether off-fault plasticity can serve as a proxy for ASD and how geometric complexities and different dynamic rupture model ingredients influence the distribution and magnitude of off-fault deformation. This work provides an initial step toward constraining the consistency between observed and modelled near-fault deformation, and toward improving the representation of off-fault processes in physics-based earthquake rupture simulations.

How to cite: Preca Trapani, R., Klinger, Y., Marchandon, M., Hok, S., Scotti, O., and Gabriel, A.-A.: Quantifying Off-Fault Plastic Strain in 3D Dynamic Rupture Models: Insights from the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1206, 2026.

EGU26-1323 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.2

Postseismic evolution and megathrust re-coupling revealed by the spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity after the 2010 Maule earthquake 

Camila Monge, Marcos Moreno, and Valeria Becerra-Carreño

The 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake is one the largest and the best-instrumented megathrust ruptures worldwide, with extensive seismic and geodetic observations spanning its interseismic, coseismic, and postseismic phases, making it an exceptional case for understanding how a subduction interface relaxes and recouples after a great earthquake. In this study, we investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity with a focus on moderate-to-large seismic events (M ≥ 6) that occurred between 2010 and 2022 in the northern half of the Maule rupture and analyze how their deformation patterns reflect postseismic stress redistribution. While shallow aftershocks dominated the first two years following Maule, later seismicity concentrated around the margins of the main slip patch, where both afterslip and Coulomb stress changes were greatest. Only three M ≥ 6 earthquakes recorded in this interval generated measurable surface deformation: the 2012 Mw 7.1 Constitución, 2017 Mw 6.9 Valparaíso, and 2019 Mw 6.8 Pichilemu earthquakes. GNSS trajectory modeling combined with InSAR observations were used to characterize their coseismic deformation fields and invert for slip on the megathrust, revealing rupture patches consistent with independent constraints on Maule coupling and coseismic slip. The Constitución earthquake activated a deep asperity down-dip of the Maule high-slip zone, in a region that accumulated stress during early postseismic relaxation; the Valparaíso rupture occurred within a strongly coupled segment north of the Maule rupture that experienced enhanced loading and was preceded by a slow-slip episode; and the Pichilemu earthquake ruptured a shallow zone that underwent rapid afterslip before gradually re-locking. Together, these earthquakes demarcate a decade-long transition from afterslip-dominated deformation to the re-establishment of heterogeneous coupling along the megathrust, revealing that the Maule rupture continued to control regional tectonics long after the mainshock. These findings emphasize that moderate-magnitude events are key markers of ongoing stress redistribution and must be included to fully resolve the postseismic stage of the seismic cycle in one of the most active seismogenic subduction zones on Earth.

How to cite: Monge, C., Moreno, M., and Becerra-Carreño, V.: Postseismic evolution and megathrust re-coupling revealed by the spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity after the 2010 Maule earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1323, 2026.

EGU26-1374 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.2

Limited near-trench slip of the 2025 Mw 8.7-8.8 Kamchatka earthquake from geodetic and tsunami data 

Chi-Hsien Tang, Yo Fukushima, Yutaro Okada, and Ayumu Mizutani

The Kamchatka subduction zone marks one of the most tectonically active regions in the world. Along the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench, the dense, cold Pacific plate subducts beneath the Okhotsk plate, accommodating a shortening rate of ~80 mm/yr along a direction almost perpendicular to the trench. Numerous tsunamigenic earthquakes have been documented along this subduction zone, including the 1952 Mw 8.8-9.0 megathrust earthquake that remains one of the largest events ever recorded by modern instruments. Similar megathrust events are suspected to have occurred in 1737 and 1841, although the observations from those times are scarce. On 29 July 2025, a Mw 8.7-8.8 earthquake occurred offshore Kamchatka, generating a tsunami that traveled across the Pacific. The 2025 epicenter lies less than 40 km from that of the 1952 earthquake and is accompanied by an aftershock distribution of comparable extent. The 2025 event therefore presents a rare opportunity to study the megathrust rupture on the Kamchatka plate interface using modern satellite-based geodesy.

We analyzed coseismic deformation of the 2025 Kamchatka earthquake using InSAR from multiple satellites and GNSS. InSAR images show deformation concentrated in the southern Kamchatka Peninsula, with amplitudes increasing progressively from inland areas toward the coast. The GNSS station on Paramushir Island recorded the maximum GNSS displacement, with seaward horizontal and downward vertical motions of ~1.7 m and ~0.2 m, respectively. Slip inversions suggest that the rupture propagated unilaterally from the epicenter to the southwest for ~480 km, broadly consistent with the aftershock distribution. The coseismic slip extended downdip to a depth of ~46 km, where the satellite-based geodetic data provide sufficient resolution. However, we found that inland geodetic measurements are insensitive to near-trench slip. Therefore, we generated three geodetic slip models with extreme, moderate, and zero shallow slip, and used DART tsunami observations to evaluate them. As a result, the model with zero shallow slip best reproduces the tsunami arrival times at DART stations, supporting the absence of significant near-trench rupture during the mainshock. The main rupture was confined to depths of 13-46 km, with a peak slip of ~9 m and a geodetic moment magnitude of Mw 8.7. The updip shallow portion of the 2025 rupture zone and the northern adjacent section may pose an elevated tsunami risk due to stress transfer. This work further underscores the crucial role of seafloor observations, as inland data typically offer limited insight into the shallow slip behavior of subduction interfaces.

How to cite: Tang, C.-H., Fukushima, Y., Okada, Y., and Mizutani, A.: Limited near-trench slip of the 2025 Mw 8.7-8.8 Kamchatka earthquake from geodetic and tsunami data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1374, 2026.

EGU26-1855 | Orals | TS3.2

Is long-term PSHA time-dependent? Insights from SimplETAS model 

Annamaria Pane, Francesco Visini, Simone Mancini, and Warner Marzocchi

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) traditionally assumes time-invariant Poisson processes over mainshocks, while removing aftershocks through non-objective declustering procedures. This may underestimate seismic hazard, as recent sequences demonstrate significant ground-shaking contributions from aftershocks. Models for cluster correction (e.g., Marzocchi and Taroni, 2014; MT14) incorporate aftershock productivity but maintain temporally constant rates. While these models improve hazard estimates, the temporal persistence of conditioning effects in long-term forecasts remains poorly quantified.

This study investigates how long-term SimplETAS-based seismic hazard is affected by forecast initialization time, considering two scenarios: (i) an unconditional PSHA, i.e. not conditioned on a specific earthquake sequence, and (ii) a conditional PSHA initialized immediately after the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake sequence. We aim to assess whether 50-year PSHA remains consistent across different initialization times, which is typically assumed sufficient for the stationarity of the hazard process.

We employ the SimplETAS algorithm to generate two sets of 100,000 synthetic catalogs spanning 50 years: one set starting in 2024 (unconditional) and one starting immediately after the 2009 L’Aquila seismic sequence (conditional). For each earthquake in the synthetic catalogs, we assign a plausible seismogenic structure and compute fault-to-site distances for ground motion prediction using the GMPEs. Hazard curves are calculated empirically as the fraction of catalogs exceeding given PGA thresholds, without relying on the Poisson distribution. We analyze four Italian cities with varying seismicity levels: L’Aquila, Reggio Calabria, Firenze, and Milano. In the unconditional scenario, we compute 50-year hazard curves for all four cities. In the conditional scenario, we compute hazard curves for the same four cities to identify a conditioning effect only on the affected site of L’Aquila. Additionally, for that site, we quantify the temporal decay of conditioning by computing hazard curves over multiple time windows (1, 5, 10, and 50 years) and comparing them with the corresponding unconditional PSHA.

Unconditional PSHA shows good agreement with the reclustered version of the official Italian seismic hazard model (MPS19_cluster) across all four cities and different return periods, corroborating the use of SimplETAS-based approach for long-term PSHA, and the suitability of the MT14's PSHA correction across different return periods. The results of the conditional analysis reveal that L’Aquila exhibits differences of about 10-20% between conditional and unconditional PSHA even over the 50-year window, while Firenze, Milano, and Reggio Calabria remain essentially unchanged. The temporal decay analysis at L’Aquila shows how conditioning effects progressively decrease over longer periods, though the average effect remains detectable in a 50 years time window.

How to cite: Pane, A., Visini, F., Mancini, S., and Marzocchi, W.: Is long-term PSHA time-dependent? Insights from SimplETAS model, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1855, 2026.

EGU26-2471 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.2

Revisiting the early postseismic deformation of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake 

Yuji Itoh, Cédric Twardzik, Mathilde Vergnolle, and Louise Maubant

A logarithmic function is the popular model of temporal evolution of afterslip, derived from the rate-and-state friction law (RSF) under the steady-state assumption (Marone+1991JGR). Relaxing this assumption, self-accelerating aseismic slip is predicted prior to subsequent decay even with velocity velocity-strengthening setting (i.e., a–b> 0; PerfettiniAmpuero2008JGR). The only natural observation example of such an accelerating stage of afterslip following large earthquakes is the case of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M 8.0) in Japan, presented by Fukuda2009JGR (F09) with the data analysis performed by LarsonMiyazaki2008EPS (LM08). They reported that the early postseismic deformation emerged ~1 hour after the mainshock. We revisit this earthquake’s early postseismic deformation with a modern kinematic GNSS processing workflow by Gipsy-X v2.3 because many default and/or recommended settings and products have evolved from the time when these previous works were carried out. This revisit will align the Tokachi-oki case with other earthquake cases analyzed by GNSS processing strategies closer to ours than LM08’s.

Among all the parameters/settings of GNSS processing we tested, the most impactful parameter was the position random walk (RW) parameter. We tested a wide range of values from 1 to 1e-5 m/sqrt(s) for this parameter with switching to the white noise during the mainshock and the M 7.1 largest aftershock (1.3-h later). Comparing our test results with F09’s dataset, the largest mismatch was found between the mainshock and the 7.1 largest aftershock when we attempted to reproduce F09’s cumulative displacements. During this interevent window, F09’s dataset shows tiny deformation, while our solutions show significant deformation. On the other hand, our test solutions exhibit the acceleration at similar timings as F09’s, with the RW parameter same as F09’s (1e-5 m/sqrt(s)), but our cumulative displacements are much smaller than F09’s after the largest aftershock coseismic step was removed. This is because of a trade-off between early postseismic deformation and the largest aftershock step, caused by the very tight RW not allowing sites to move other than at the coseismic timing. Therefore, we recommend careful testing position RW parameter to accurately resolve early postseismic deformation, rather than taking a value introduced in other studies. With our test results, we concluded that no parameters could satisfactorily reproduce the early postseismic deformation presented in F09; in other words, the acceleration of early afterslip reported in F09 was absent in our solutions. Our results imply that the transition between the interseismic and postseismic stage of velocity strengthening faults would happen within several minutes at the longest, implying that the very beginning of afterslip is concurrent with the dynamic ruptures of the mainshock.

How to cite: Itoh, Y., Twardzik, C., Vergnolle, M., and Maubant, L.: Revisiting the early postseismic deformation of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2471, 2026.

Seismogenic depth is a fundamental parameter in seismic hazard assessment and is commonly inferred from kinematic approaches that rely on empirically defined thresholds. However, these observational estimates require validation and calibration against physics-based earthquake cycle models. Here we focus on the San Andreas Fault system in California, where high-quality geodetic, seismicity, and geothermal datasets are available. We construct a geodetically derived fault-coupling model for the entire fault system and systematically compare seismogenic depths inferred from fault coupling with those constrained by earthquake depth distributions. Our results show that a geodetic seismogenic depth defined by a coupling ratio of 0.45 provides the closest agreement with the depth enclosing 90% of the observed seismicity. This correspondence is quantitatively consistent with predictions from thermally constrained rate-and-state friction models, although the numerically inferred seismogenic depths are systematically shallower. Along-strike variations in seismogenic depth obtained from all approaches exhibit similar spatial patterns and correlate strongly with geothermal gradients, indicating that temperature is the primary controlling factor. These results establish a quantitative link between seismogenic depths derived from observational constraints and physics-based numerical models, thereby providing a stronger physical basis for incorporating geodetically inferred coupling models into seismic hazard assessments.

How to cite: Xu, X., Zhao, X., and Weng, H.: Discrepancies and controlling factors of rupture depths inffered from geodesy, seismicity and thermally constrained rate-and-state friction models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2700, 2026.

EGU26-3040 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.2

Machine Learning for Liquefaction Hazard Mapping: A Case Study for New Zealand  

Denisa Tami, Roberto Gentile, Saurabh Prabhu, and Marco Carenzo

Earthquake-induced soil liquefaction poses significant risks to urban infrastructure in seismically active regions. Recent events, notably the 2011 Christchurch earthquake in New Zealand, demonstrate that liquefaction-induced damage can exceed that from ground shaking. This emphasises the need for scalable liquefaction hazard assessment tools. Traditional assessment methods that rely on cone penetration tests (CPT) and standard penetration tests are impractical for large-scale applications (e.g., regional hazard mapping or insurance portfolio analysis). This research develops a machine learning (ML) model that serves as a cost-effective proxy for traditional geotechnical testing.

Using CPT data from the New Zealand Geotechnical Database (NZGD), this study implements the state-of-practice Boulanger and Idriss (2016) methodology to calculate Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) values for 5,879 unique locations across five Holocene geological units in New Zealand (i.e., windblown, human-made, estuary, river, and swamp deposits). ML models were trained separately for each geological unit to predict CPT-derived LPI, using three primary features: earthquake magnitude (Mw 5.0-8.0), peak ground acceleration (PGA) (0.05-1.2g), and groundwater table depth (0.5-15.0m). For each CPT location, the LPI was recomputed under sampled Mw-PGA-GWT combinations to create an expanded training set spanning plausible hazard and groundwater states. Using this training dataset, several ML methods were initially tested (i.e., gradient boosting, XGBoost, LightGBM, neural network, support vector machine), finally selecting LightGBM based on the best accuracy-training time trade-off. 

Model performance varied by geological unit: windblown deposits were captured well, achieving R2= 0.854, whereas river deposits reached only R2= 0.555, despite the latter having more training data. This finding demonstrates that depositional homogeneity, rather than data volume, can be more influential on ML performance in geotechnical applications. Feature importance analysis revealed balanced contributions to influencing predictions (i.e., magnitude: 33.7%, PGA: 34.5%, groundwater table depth: 31.8%), indicating the need to represent groundwater variability rather than treating shaking intensity as the sole dominant control. Validation against analytical LPI calculations for a synthetic scenario representing fully saturated conditions (Mw = 6.5, PGA = 0.4g, GWT = 0m) yields moderate agreement (R2= 0.491). The models tend to produce more conservative estimates for LPI < 5 and slightly underpredict for LPI > 40, likely reflecting systematic biases in the training data distribution, where extreme cases are underrepresented. Real-world application was also assessed by comparing predicted patterns with observed liquefaction manifestations during the 2011 Christchurch event from NZGD, independent of the training dataset. Comparisons observed good qualitative agreement with known high-susceptibility areas in eastern Christchurch, including zones near the Avon River and coastal margins. The proposed framework provides a scalable alternative to traditional CPT-based assessments, particularly for large-scale regional applications.

How to cite: Tami, D., Gentile, R., Prabhu, S., and Carenzo, M.: Machine Learning for Liquefaction Hazard Mapping: A Case Study for New Zealand , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3040, 2026.

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis (PSRA) integrates seismic hazard with the vulnerability of exposed assets; however, the full propagation of uncertainties across this chain is still rarely examined. Although uncertainties affect hazard, vulnerability, and exposure models, most studies only partially address them, and end-to-end assessments remain limited. Epistemic uncertainty, arising from incomplete knowledge, is commonly represented through logic trees, which encode alternative modelling assumptions (e.g., recurrence models, maximum magnitudes) and define a discrete probability distribution over mutually exclusive options.

Previous studies suggest that hazard-related uncertainties often dominate seismic risk estimates, but few studies quantify this systematically, and is largely based on case studies from California. Within the TREAD project (tread-horizon.eu), we extend this understanding by applying a comprehensive framework to evaluate multiple sources of epistemic uncertainty using Italy, an earthquake-prone region, as both a national and regional case study.

We employ two alternative logic-tree structures: an area-source model with 540 branches and a combined fault-based plus smoothed-seismicity model with 243 branches. These configurations allow us to isolate the impact of choices related to slip rates, ground-motion models, scaling relations, recurrence behaviour, maximum-magnitude values, completeness methodologies, and site-specific assumptions.

Risk calculations are performed using the OpenQuake Engine, with structural economic losses adopted as the risk metric. Our results indicate that the dominant sources of epistemic uncertainty vary with the return period, implying that priorities for data acquisition and scientific investment should depend on the intended application of the risk results. Although ground-motion models often represent the largest contributor to epistemic uncertainty, our findings show that this assumption does not hold consistently across regions or return periods.

How to cite: Montejo, J., Silva, V., and Pace, B.: Influence of sources of epistemic uncertainties in hazard modeling on risk assessment: a regional assessment in Italy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3229, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3229, 2026.

EGU26-3242 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

Scaling of Permeability Within Faults Across Nine Orders of Magnitude of Displacement  

Mohammadreza Akbariforouz, Qi Zhao, Chunmiao Zheng, and Daniel Faulkner

Faults are ubiquitous structures, ranging in length from millimeters to thousands of kilometers, with significant variations in permeability that regulate regional fluid flow, solute transport, seismicity, and hydrothermal circulation within the crust. Measurement of in situ fault permeability is challenging due to drilling difficulties and the risk of hydraulic fracturing. Moreover, existing scaling laws of laboratory permeability or fracturing intensity within faults are site-specific, highlighting the need for universal laws. Furthermore, damage zone permeabilities (kDZ) normalized to the protolith permeability (kNDZ) are typically high, while normalized fault core permeability (kNC) varies. We analyzed 752 in situ injection tests and 967 geomechanical experiments on seven faults with shear displacements (D) ranging from 1 to 5 m in the Asmari–Jahrum Formation (AJF), Iran. The AJF database was supplemented with 334 kDZ and 64 kNC datasets from the literature, covering 245 faults and spanning nine orders of magnitude in D. We quantified the hydraulic roles of fault cores as conduits (kNC>1) or barriers (kNC<1) based on porosity changes. We also developed kNC scaling laws using displacement divided by fault core thickness within a fuzzy-logic framework. A universal kNDZ law was established using distance from the fault core, damage zone thickness, and geomechanical parameters through kriging analysis. The universal material- and fault-dependent kNDZ and kNC laws indicate variations up to ten orders of magnitude in permeability. These findings enhance our understanding of fault hydrology and offer predictive tools for estimating fault permeability.

How to cite: Akbariforouz, M., Zhao, Q., Zheng, C., and Faulkner, D.: Scaling of Permeability Within Faults Across Nine Orders of Magnitude of Displacement , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3242, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3242, 2026.

EGU26-4289 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

Exploring Fault Behaviour and Seismic Hazard in the Central Apennines through Earthquake Simulations 

Khatereh Saghatforoush, Bruno Pace, Alessandro Verdecchia, Francesco Visini, Octavi Gomez Novell, Olaf Zielke, and Laura Peruzza

The Central Apennines (Italy) are characterized by moderate seismicity and active fault systems capable of generating damaging earthquakes. However, the limited duration of historical and paleoseismic records restrict our understanding of long-term fault behaviour. In this study, we use the Multi-Cycle Earthquake Rupture Simulator (MCQsim) to construct a 3D model of 42 active normal faults and to generate multiple 100,000-year-long synthetic earthquake catalogues. We systematically vary key model parameters, including dynamic friction and fault strength heterogeneity, to assess their influence on earthquake occurrence rates, magnitudefrequency distributions, and rupture scaling.


The simulations reproduce the regional Gutenberg–Richter trend and show magnitude–average slip and magnitude–rupture area relationships consistent with empirical scaling laws and the available historical catalogue. Seismic productivity and rupture characteristics are most sensitive to variations in dynamic friction and fault heterogeneity. Although uncertainties arise from simplified fault geometries and assumptions about seismogenic depth, the overall agreement between synthetic and observed seismicity suggests that MCQsim effectively captures key aspects of long-term fault-system behaviour. These results indicate that physics-based synthetic earthquake catalogues can improve constraints on earthquake recurrence and rupture scenarios, providing valuable input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in regions characterized by moderate seismicity, complex active fault systems, and sparse observational data.

How to cite: Saghatforoush, K., Pace, B., Verdecchia, A., Visini, F., Novell, O. G., Zielke, O., and Peruzza, L.: Exploring Fault Behaviour and Seismic Hazard in the Central Apennines through Earthquake Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4289, 2026.

EGU26-6377 | Posters on site | TS3.2

10Be-Based indentification of Paleoearthquake event on the Huashan Piedmont Fault 

Jinhui Yin, Wei Xu, Wenfang Shi, Jie Chen, and Marc Caffee

Over the past few decades, reconstructing paleoseismic sequences using in situ cosmogenic 36Cl exposure ages has proven effective in numerous countries and regions, greatly enhancing our quantitative understanding of active faults (Akçar et al., 2012; Benedetti et al., 2002; Goodall et al., 2021; Mitchell et al., 2001; Mouslopoulou et al., 2014). However, in China, where normal fault bedrock exposures are typically rich in quartz, 10Be is the optimal nuclide for dating fault scarps, offering a better fit to the local geological context than 36Cl. Despite this, only a handful of  10Be studies have reconstructed earthquake slip histories for large events (M>7) using the relationship between exposure ages and height on cumulative scarps (Lunina et al., 2020; Shen et al., 2016).
This study investigates the bedrock fault scarp at Duyu, situated along the Huashan Piedmont Fault (HPF)—the source of the AD 1556 M 8½ earthquake—using 10Be concentration profiling to identify paleoearthquake events. Our analysis confirms a strong earthquake occurred prior to the 1556 event, dated to 3092 ± 383 years ago. This finding bridges a significant gap in the paleoseismic record for this interval, which was previously undetected by traditional trenching methods. The HPF exhibits a quasi-periodic recurrence pattern with an estimated interval of 2623 ± 383 years. During the late Holocene, the fault maintained a vertical slip rate of 2.0 to 2.7 mm/yr, with individual events generating coseismic vertical displacements of 6 ± 0.5 m. These results demonstrate the value of in situ10Be exposure dating as a robust method for reconstructing the seismic histories of normal faults in tectonically similar regions globally.

How to cite: Yin, J., Xu, W., Shi, W., Chen, J., and Caffee, M.: 10Be-Based indentification of Paleoearthquake event on the Huashan Piedmont Fault, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6377, 2026.

EGU26-7786 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

Direct marine geophysical constraints on the rupture of the 2012 Mw 8.6 Wharton basin earthquake 

Saksham Rohilla, Hélène Carton, Satish Singh, Muriel Laurencin, Nugroho Hananto, Mihai Roharik, Yanfang Qin, Sudipta Sarkar, Mark Noble, Mari Hamahashi, and Paul Tapponnier

Current understanding of earthquake rupture and earthquake cycles is largely derived from continental fault systems, implicitly assuming their applicability to oceanic lithosphere. Futhermore, the limited geological and geophysical constraints on large oceanic earthquakes hinder robust assessment of how deformation, fault growth, and stress accumulation takes place in the oceanic lithosphere. The 2012 Mw 8.6 Wharton Basin earthquake, the largest instrumentally recorded strike-slip event, challenged prevailing views of intraplate deformation in the Indian Ocean by rupturing a complex network of faults at high angles to one another. Seismological and geodetic analyses revealed a deep centroid depth, high stress drop, and multi-fault rupture, yet the offshore setting severely limited constraints on fault geometry and rupture propagation. Here, we bridge short- and long-term deformation processes by integrating high-resolution bathymetry, multichannel seismic reflection, and sub-bottom profiler data. We present the surface and near-surface deformation along one of the faults ruptured during the Mw 8.6 earthquake, which runs ESE-WNW and initiates near the epicenter of the Mw 8.2 aftershock. The ~100-km-long fault displays well-preserved dextral offsets accumulated since ~4 - 5 Ma and an en-echelon segmented pattern forming a positive flower structure rooted in the oceanic mantle. We estimate slip rates of ~0.4 to 0.8 mm/yr suggest long recurrence intervals for large intraplate earthquakes. Coulomb stress modelling indicates substantial coseismic stress loading on the N-S fault that subsequently ruptured during the Mw 8.2 earthquake, thus establishing a mechanical relationship between the two events. Overall, our study shows that the oceanic lithosphere can deform slowly and extensively over long time scales, accumulating strain along slow-slipping faults that can produce very large, cascade-style earthquakes. Furthermore, our study offers key inputs for earthquake cycle and dynamic rupture models in oceanic settings by providing geological constraints on fault geometry and slip rates.

How to cite: Rohilla, S., Carton, H., Singh, S., Laurencin, M., Hananto, N., Roharik, M., Qin, Y., Sarkar, S., Noble, M., Hamahashi, M., and Tapponnier, P.: Direct marine geophysical constraints on the rupture of the 2012 Mw 8.6 Wharton basin earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7786, 2026.

EGU26-8066 | Orals | TS3.2

Why closed seismic cycles matter for time-dependent seismic hazard: Lessons from global paleoearthquake records  

Vasiliki Mouslopoulou, Andy Nicol, Andy Howell, and Jon Griffin

The timing and size of the past large earthquakes that ruptured active faults are important to better understand seismic processes and time-dependent seismic hazards. A recent study highlights the rarity of ‘overdue’ earthquakes for New Zealand faults, a finding that directly contrasts observations from California, which indicate an unlikely long period of seismic quiescence. Here, we analyze paleoearthquake and historic records from 210 faults globally, including California, to test the international applicability of the findings for the New Zealand faults against a global active fault dataset. By comparing earthquake-elapsed and mean-recurrence data that derive from end-member fault systems, we explore the factors that control the shape of recurrence-interval distributions on different regions, and assess whether existing paleoearthquake and historical data can be used for estimating time-dependent seismic hazard. Our analysis: 1) demonstrates that the regions examined generally behave similarly for interevent and elapsed times, except for California which forms an outlier. This dissimilarity is important as faults in California have been commonly used to inform earthquake forecast models; 2) supports recurrence-interval distributions that are consistent with positively-skewed renewal models; and 3) proposes an improved approach for defining recurrence-interval distributions that involves the closed elapsed times constrained by historic ruptures and their penultimate events.

How to cite: Mouslopoulou, V., Nicol, A., Howell, A., and Griffin, J.: Why closed seismic cycles matter for time-dependent seismic hazard: Lessons from global paleoearthquake records , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8066, 2026.

EGU26-8422 | Orals | TS3.2

The anatomy of a strike-slip plate boundary fault in a pull-apart basin – The Motagua Fault in Guatemala 

Christoph Grützner, Tina Niemi, Omar Flores, Carlos Perez Arias, Aleigha Dollens, Jeremy Maurer, and Jonathan Obrist-Farner

Off-fault deformation in surface-rupturing earthquakes can be detected using geodetical methods, but field evidence is rare. Here we present data from the North American-Caribbean Plate boundary, documenting off-fault deformation in the geological record in great detail.

The Motagua Fault in Guatemala is part of the plate boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates. It ruptured in a M7.5 earthquake in 1976, producing a 230 km-long surface rupture with an average slip of about 1 m. At the Estanzuela site, the fault-parallel, elongated topographic depression “Laguneta Los Yajes” is about 2 m lower than its surroundings as revealed by new airborne LiDAR data. It is interpreted as a pull-apart basin, either caused by a fault stepover or by a fault bend. Since it was seasonally filled with water, the surface rupture of the 1976 Earthquake could not be mapped precisely here. We trenched the northern topographic scarp of the depression to investigate the boundary fault but did not encounter a distinct major shear zone. Instead, we found distributed deformation manifested as fractures. Two additional trenches in the center of the depression found the main fault zone and additional structures that accommodate distributed shear. We interpret the fault geometry to be a fault bend rather than a stepover, and we document the evidence for off-fault deformation over 80 m around the main strand at this site. These data shed light on the anatomy of the plate boundary and its associated off-fault deformation.

How to cite: Grützner, C., Niemi, T., Flores, O., Perez Arias, C., Dollens, A., Maurer, J., and Obrist-Farner, J.: The anatomy of a strike-slip plate boundary fault in a pull-apart basin – The Motagua Fault in Guatemala, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8422, 2026.

EGU26-8590 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.2

Could Surface Precipitations Destabilize a Craton? 

Haibin Yang and Siyuan Zhao

The high integrated brittle strength of cratons with a cool and thick lithosphere protects cratonic interiors from tectonic deformation. High strain rates (>10-15 s-1) at plate boundaries facilitate enhanced faulting. However, cratons are not immuned from seismic activities. Intraplate earthquakes have caused more fatalities than interplate earthquakes. For example, the 1556 Huaxian earthquake (M 8.0), the deadliest earthquake in human history that killed 830,000 people, occurred in the middle of continental China. Seismic quiescent may in some stable continent relate to short instrumental histories (< ~150 years) with respect to the earthquake cycles (>104 years) and the limited resolution of geodetic surveys for fault motions in stable cratons. The extremely long earthquake cycles in stable continents make it hard to be detected due to surface erosional processes, particularly for those ‘one-off’ events. Classical seismic hazard estimation based on slip deficit calculations may not apply to earthquakes in stable continents when the last destructive earthquake occurred in history is unknown. To quantify the impact of seasonal hydrological cycles on seismicity in stable cratons, we integrate seismic catalogs with GRACE(-FO) data, borehole water levels, precipitation records, and InSAR observations from the Pilbara and Yilgarn cratons in Australia. Our analysis tests whether seismic responses to hydrological stress are consistent across cratons and assesses whether these perturbations induce temporary or permanent changes in craton stability.

How to cite: Yang, H. and Zhao, S.: Could Surface Precipitations Destabilize a Craton?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8590, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8590, 2026.

EGU26-10254 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.2

Formation of Fault Damage Zones in Carbonates and Their Role in the Seismic Cycle 

Daniel Dreier, Mathilde Marchandon, Michele Fondriest, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, and Giulio Di Toro

Probably the most impressive geological feature of active fault zones hosted in carbonate rocks is the presence of several hundreds of meters thick damage zones, often composed of in-situ shattered rocks (ISRs, i.e. rocks fragmented into clasts < 1 cm in size). Despite their abundance, it remains unknown how ISRs form (during the propagation of seismic ruptures?), and how their presence affects (1) the propagation of individual mainshock seismic ruptures, (2) the near field wave radiation and associated strong ground motions, and (3) the evolution in space and time of aftershock seismic sequences. In this contribution, we will present preliminary results of a three-year Ph.D. project aimed at addressing these issues through an integrated field geology and numerical modelling approach.

We exploit existing and newly acquired field geology data on fault damage zone distributions in the Central Apennines (Italy), and perform dynamic rupture earthquake sequence simulations with SeisSol (https://seissol.org). The fully-dynamic individual earthquake simulations with SeisSol rely on the discontinuous Galerkin method, which allows treating complex 3D geological structures, nonlinear rheologies (including off-fault plastic yielding) and high-order accurate propagation of seismic waves (Käser et al., 2010). The earthquake modelling simulations integrate laboratory-derived frictional constitutive laws with simplified and realistic representations of fault zone geometry and surface topography. Currently, our study is focused on the 25 km long Campo Imperatore fault system in the Gran Sasso Massif area (Italian Central Apennines) where the damage zones are pronounced and well mapped (Demurtas et al., 2016; Fondriest et al., 2020).

We aim at using the dynamic rupture earthquake modelling simulations to discuss the formation and distribution of ISRs with respect to (1) the maximum magnitude (Mw 7.0) of the earthquake associated with the studied fault, (2) fault geometry (length, presence of step overs, fault bends, etc.), (3) topographic effects (valleys, etc.), and (4) lithology (limestones, dolostones, etc.) of the wall rocks. This approach is expected to identify the physical, geological, and loading conditions controlling seismic rupture propagation and the development of fault damage zones. The physically based, fully dynamic 3D simulations will also provide estimates of earthquake source parameters (e.g., fracture energy and seismic moment release rate) and synthetic seismograms (strong ground motions), which will be compared with seismological and strong-motion data from earthquakes in the Central Apennines.

 

References

 

Demurtas, M., Fondriest, M., Balsamo, F., Clemenzi, L., Storti, F., Bistacchi, A., & Di Toro, G. (2016). Structure of a normal seismogenic fault zone in carbonates: The Vado di Corno Fault, Campo Imperatore, Central Apennines (Italy). Journal of Structural Geology, 90, 185–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2016.08.004

Fondriest, M., Balsamo, F., Bistacchi, A., Clemenzi, L., Demurtas, M., Storti, F., & Di Toro, G. (2020). Structural Complexity and Mechanics of a Shallow Crustal Seismogenic Source (Vado di Corno Fault Zone, Italy). Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 125(9), e2019JB018926. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB018926

Käser, M., Castro, C., Hermann, V., & Pelties, C. (2010). SeisSol – A Software for Seismic Wave Propagation Simulations. In High Performance Computing in Science and Engineering, Garching/Munich 2009 (pp. 281–292). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-13872-0_24

How to cite: Dreier, D., Marchandon, M., Fondriest, M., Gabriel, A.-A., and Di Toro, G.: Formation of Fault Damage Zones in Carbonates and Their Role in the Seismic Cycle, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10254, 2026.

EGU26-10477 | Orals | TS3.2

Seismic gap breached by the 2025 Mw 7.7 Mandalay (Myanmar) earthquake 

P. Martin Mai, Sigurjón Jónsson, Bo Li, Cahli Suhendi, Jihong Liu, Duo Li, Arthur Delorme, and Yann Klinger

Seismic gaps are fault sections that have not hosted a large earthquake for a long time compared to neighbouring segments, making them likely sites for future large events. The 2025 Mw 7.7 Mandalay (Myanmar) earthquake, on the central section of the Sagaing Fault, ruptured through a known seismic gap and ~160 km beyond it, resulting in an exceptionally long rupture of ~460 km. Here we investigate the rupture process of this event and the factors that enabled it to breach the seismic gap by integrating satellite synthetic aperture radar observations, seismic waveform back-projection, Bayesian finite-fault inversion and dynamic rupture simulations. We identify a two-stage earthquake rupture comprising initial bilateral subshear propagation for ~20 s followed by unilateral supershear rupture for ~70 s. Simulation-based sensitivity tests suggest that the seismic gap boundary was not a strong mechanical barrier in terms of frictional strength, and that nucleation of the earthquake far from the gap boundary, rather than its supershear speed, allowed the rupture to outgrow the gap and propagate far beyond it. Hence, we conclude that the dimension of seismic gaps may not reflect the magnitude of future earthquakes. Instead, ruptures may cascade through multiple fault sections to generate larger and potentially more damaging events.

How to cite: Mai, P. M., Jónsson, S., Li, B., Suhendi, C., Liu, J., Li, D., Delorme, A., and Klinger, Y.: Seismic gap breached by the 2025 Mw 7.7 Mandalay (Myanmar) earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10477, 2026.

EGU26-10546 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

Three-dimensional anisotropy of seismite deformation constrains seismogenic fault location 

Xiao Yang, Xuhua Shi, Haibin Yang, Yann Klinger, Hanlin Chen, Jin Ge, Feng Li, Xin Liu, Yixi Yan, and Zhuona Bai

Earthquake ground motion is inherently directional and governs deformation in near-surface sediments, yet whether this directional information is preserved in geological archives remains poorly constrained. Soft-sediment deformation structures produced by earthquakes (seismites) are widely used to reconstruct past earthquake catalogues but are generally assumed to lack information on seismic-wave direction, limiting their ability to identify seismogenic faults. Here we develop a three-dimensional physical framework integrating numerical simulations with field observations to resolve how different seismic-wave components control deformation anisotropy in water-saturated sediments. We show that horizontally polarized shear waves dominate anisotropic deformation, producing systematically stronger shear and folding on planes oriented perpendicular to wave propagation. This behaviour is quantified using a dimensionless deformation index and fold counts measured on orthogonal profiles. Applying this framework to a well-preserved three-dimensional seismite in the Pamir region, we demonstrate that contrasts in deformation intensity robustly record seismic source direction and enable identification of causative seismogenic faults, together with reconstruction of a sequence of paleo-earthquakes when integrated with chronological constraints. These results establish that near-surface geological deformation can preserve directional information on seismic-wave propagation, opening new opportunities to reconstruct seismic source direction from sedimentary cores and outcrop-scale geological records worldwide.

How to cite: Yang, X., Shi, X., Yang, H., Klinger, Y., Chen, H., Ge, J., Li, F., Liu, X., Yan, Y., and Bai, Z.: Three-dimensional anisotropy of seismite deformation constrains seismogenic fault location, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10546, 2026.

EGU26-10634 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

Dating Hanging-Wall Colluvial Breccia to Reconstruct the Long-term Normal Fault Evolution in Carbonate Terrains 

Gali Shraiber, Shalev Siman-Tov, Ari Matmon, Tzahi Golan, Naomi Porat, Yael Jacobi, and Perach Nuriel

Normal fault systems within extensional domains often create steep mountain fronts and associated colluvial breccia deposits. These deposits hold an archive of long-term fault activity and landscape evolution, yet they are rarely used to quantify fault slip histories due to their complex nature and dating challenges. In this study, we investigate the Zurim Escarpment in northern Israel, focusing on the Sajur Fault, to reconstruct the long-term morphotectonic history from syn-tectonic colluvial breccia units on the hanging-wall. We integrate U-Pb dating of calcite precipitates and luminescence dating of quartz grains within the breccia matrix to constrain the timing of two breccia depositional phases. Dating results constrain the age of the older breccia phase to ~2.5 Ma, and the younger phase to at least 1.2 Ma. The presence of colluvial breccia at ~2.5 Ma indicates that relief had already developed, constraining the minimum age of escarpment formation. Through clast provenance analysis, we link breccia deposition to the progressive exhumation of the fault footwall. This yielded a long-term slip rate of 0.14±0.02 to 0.15±0.02 mm/yr over the past 2.5 million years, lower than short-term rates derived from cosmogenic dating of fault scraps (0.2–0.5 mm/yr). This discrepancy reflects the temporal dependence of fault slip rates calculations, with values decreasing and stabilizing over longer timescales as they capture the full ratio of seismically active periods to intervening quiescent periods. Our results underscore the potential of syn-tectonic colluvial breccia as a long-term archive for fault activity and landscape evolution in carbonate terrains.

How to cite: Shraiber, G., Siman-Tov, S., Matmon, A., Golan, T., Porat, N., Jacobi, Y., and Nuriel, P.: Dating Hanging-Wall Colluvial Breccia to Reconstruct the Long-term Normal Fault Evolution in Carbonate Terrains, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10634, 2026.

EGU26-10939 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

Earthquake rupture in a strike slip experiment  

Louis Demange, Pauline Souloumiac, Bertrand Maillot, Salah-Eddine Hebaz, and Yann Klinger

Seismotectonic analogue models provide a valuable complement to seismological, geodetic and paleoseismological-geomorphological approaches for investigating the earthquake cycle. Physical models mainly made with elastic and frictional materials, allow the simulation of multiple seismic cycles under controlled laboratory conditions. Such physical models can reproduce interseismic, coseismic and postseismic deformation. However, all those models include a pre-existing fault, and thus do not necessarily model realistic fault geometries. As a consequence, the influence of geometric complexity—such as fault segmentation, bends, and step-overs—on rupture dynamics and seismic cycle behaviour remains poorly explored in those seismotectonic models.

Here, we present a new analogue seismotectonic model of a strike-slip fault system that allows complex fault geometries to emerge and evolve while producing multiple seismic cycle. The experimental setup consists of two juxtaposed horizontal PVC plates separated by a straight velocity discontinuity, with one plate fixed and the other moving at constant velocity, simulating a vertical basement fault. The overlying medium is composed of three granular layers:  a basal layer of rubber pellets that stores elastic strain, an intermediate rice layer that exhibits stick–slip behavior and represents the seismogenic crust, and an upper frictionally stable sand layer mimicking a non-seismogenic shallow crust.

Surface deformation is monitored with photographs acquired every 2 seconds, corresponding to 25 μm of displacement for the basal plate , and processed using image correlation and dense optical flow methods. Seismic events are detected when surface displacement exceed the imposed basal plate displacement. In addition, recordings made with a high-speed camera at 100 frames per second capture transient surface deformation during rupture propagation. A total of 23 high-speed sequences, each lasting 10 seconds, document coseismic surface deformation associated with earthquake propagation.

We explore the potential of this experimental setup to investigate how rupture characteristics—such as rupture velocity, nucleation and arrest processes— may depend on the evolution of fault geometry and associated off-fault deformation. By quantifying the spatiotemporal distribution of surface deformation and seismic events along evolving fault networks, this approach allows us to investigate how fault segments are activated, temporarily locked, or interact throughout successive stages of the seismic cycle. Moreover, we examine how interseismic deformation reflects the evolving mechanical state and geometry of the fault system, and how this state influences subsequent earthquakes.

How to cite: Demange, L., Souloumiac, P., Maillot, B., Hebaz, S.-E., and Klinger, Y.: Earthquake rupture in a strike slip experiment , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10939, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10939, 2026.

EGU26-10956 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

Insights into fault evolution and rupture dynamics in a strike-slip context from 3D Discrete Element models 

Adélaïde Allemand, Yann Klinger, and Luc Scholtès

Strike-slip continental faults often show complex geometries, inherited from their past history. More particularly, they display branches, bends, and steps, also referred to as geometric asperities. Thus, far from being straight-lined, continental strike-slip faults are characterised by disconnected and misaligned sections, whose length and separating distance vary as the faults mature in time.

The presence of those discontinuities (or complexities) along the fault could affect earthquake rupture dynamics; indeed, the extensional or compressional nature of these discontinuities results in stress heterogeneities along the fault system. In addition, depending on the degree of development of the latter, the deformation at fault complexities can show various levels of localisation, balancing between fault segments well connected by fractures and fault portions dominated by damaged zones where the deformation is distributed. As a consequence, fault complexities often act as nucleation- or end-points for seismic ruptures.

In order to study the effect of fault geometry on earthquake ruptures, we developed a 3D numerical model of an evolving continental strike-slip fault, based on the Discrete Element Method (DEM).

In this model, an initially intact medium is subjected to a strike-slip tectonic regime and, thanks to the DEM capability to explicitly describe progressive failure mechanisms, it evolves through different stages of deformation that eventually lead to the emergence of a structure presenting complexities similar to that of natural faults. We are thus able to analyse the relationship between fault maturity and fault geometry. In addition, multiple local ruptures occur along the fault. Therefore, we can characterise the evolution of the earthquake cycles with geological history: on one hand, for each earthquake, we explore how the rupture is spatially affected by fault complexities; on the other hand, we look at the way successive earthquakes progressively modify the geometry of the fault system. Finally, we compare those observations with natural cases.

How to cite: Allemand, A., Klinger, Y., and Scholtès, L.: Insights into fault evolution and rupture dynamics in a strike-slip context from 3D Discrete Element models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10956, 2026.

Seismic hazard models increasingly rely on detailed active fault databases to explicitly represent earthquake sources and their complex geometries. However, transforming fault-based information into consistent and physically plausible inputs for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) remains a non-trivial and often fragmented task. We present NEXTQUAKE, a modular MATLAB tool designed to bridge this gap by converting an active fault database into a complete, internally consistent seismic hazard input. The first core component of NEXTQUAKE generates a comprehensive catalog of earthquake ruptures starting from the geometry of an active fault system. The algorithm constructs single-fault and multi-fault ruptures while enforcing physical plausibility through a fault-to-fault and subsection-to-subsection connectivity framework. Multi-fault ruptures are generated only among geometrically and kinematically connected faults, dramatically reducing the combinatorial space and ensuring realistic rupture scenarios. Each rupture is described in terms of geometry, area, and magnitude, and is encoded through a sparse subsection–rupture incidence matrix that enables efficient downstream processing. The second component performs an inversion to estimate the expected occurrence rates of all generated ruptures. The inversion integrates geological and geophysical constraints, such as long-term slip rates, and provides a self-consistent set of rupture rates compatible with the fault database. This step allows the direct use of fault-based information within probabilistic frameworks without relying on simplified or ad hoc assumptions. Finally, the third component of NEXTQUAKE translates the rupture catalog and associated rates into fully compliant input files for OpenQuake, enabling seamless integration with state-of-the-art PSHA engines. By automating the entire workflow, NEXTQUAKE offers a transparent, reproducible, and extensible framework for fault-based seismic hazard modeling. NEXTQUAKE is particularly suited for regional-scale applications and for exploring the impact of rupture connectivity assumptions on seismic hazard results.

How to cite: Valentini, A.: NEXTQUAKE: a MATLAB tool to transform an active fault database into seismic hazard input, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11056, 2026.

EGU26-11337 | Orals | TS3.2

Viscoelastic Stress Loading Following the 1999 Earthquakes and Late-Stage Seismicity in the Marmara Sea 

Süleyman S. Nalbant, Fatih Uzunca, Murat Utkucu, and Hatice Durmuş

The 17 August 1999 İzmit (M7.4) and 12 November 1999 Düzce (M7.2) earthquakes ruptured the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in northwestern Türkiye and caused catastrophic damage. The offshore extensions of the central and northern strands of the NAFZ beneath the Sea of Marmara remain seismically active, having produced several Mw≥ 5.0 earthquakes since 2005. In this study, we analyse the spatiotemporal evolution of Coulomb stress changes following the 1999 earthquake doublet and examine their relationship to subsequent moderate earthquakes, including the 2006 Gemlik (Mw5.0), 2019 Silivri (Mw5.7), 2023 Mudanya (Mw5.0), and 2025 Silivri (Mw6.2) events.

Our models indicate that for the 2006 Gemlik and 2023 Mudanya earthquakes, coseismically imposed stress shadows generated by the 1999 ruptures were progressively erased and reversed to positive values by viscoelastic postseismic relaxation in the lower crust and upper mantle. In contrast, at the locations of the 2019 and 2025 Silivri earthquakes, positive coseismic stress changes were substantially amplified by subsequent viscoelastic processes. These results demonstrate that stress perturbations associated with the 1999 mainshocks continue to modulate seismicity along offshore Marmara fault segments over decadal timescales.

In the broader context of the seismic cycle of the Main Marmara Segment, which last ruptured in 1766, the increasing occurrence of moderate-magnitude earthquakes may reflect a transition toward a late-stage, critically stressed regime. Our results suggest that long-lived viscoelastic stress transfer following the 1999 earthquakes has imposed an additional stress load on an already mature seismic cycle, potentially accelerating its progression toward failure. Accounting for such persistent, time-dependent stress interactions is therefore essential for refining time-dependent earthquake hazard assessments in this densely populated region.

How to cite: Nalbant, S. S., Uzunca, F., Utkucu, M., and Durmuş, H.: Viscoelastic Stress Loading Following the 1999 Earthquakes and Late-Stage Seismicity in the Marmara Sea, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11337, 2026.

EGU26-11580 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.2

Numerical Modelling of Fault-Slip-Induced Satellite Gravity Signals in a 3D Viscoelastic Earth: Application to the Japanese Subduction System 

Rajesh Parla, Isabelle Panet, Hom Nath Gharti, Roland Martin, Dominique Remy, and Bastien Plazolles

The spatio-temporal variations of the Earth’s gravity field recorded by satellites have been shown to provide unique insight into mass redistributions during and after major subduction-zone earthquakes, and to reveal anomalous signals preceeding two great ruptures, attributed to rapid aseismic deformations of subducted plates. Understanding these gravity signatures is important for studying subduction system dynamics throughout the earthquake cycle and for improving regional seismic risk assessment. Physics-based numerical simulations are therefore needed in order to model pre- to post-seismic satellite gravity signals, taking into account the 3D structure of the subducting zone, including lateral heterogeneities in the mantle rheology and lateral variations in crustal thickness. In this study, we apply a novel numerical approach to simulate gravity perturbations induced by fault dislocations in a 3D viscoelastic Earth using a Spectral-Infinite-Element (SIE) method, implemented in the SPECFEM-X numerical code. Considering examples of dislocation within a subducted slab, we examine the sensitivity of the surface gravity signals to 3D slab geometry and material structure, including the effects of low-viscosity layers, mantle wedge and cold nose. This approach enables us to investigate the sources of the pre-seismic gravity anomalies prior to the 2011 Mw 9.1 Tohoku earthquake through realistic 3D Earth models and state-of-the-art simulation setups. The findings of this study underscore the importance of numerical simulations in gravitational geodesy as well as in seismic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Parla, R., Panet, I., Gharti, H. N., Martin, R., Remy, D., and Plazolles, B.: Numerical Modelling of Fault-Slip-Induced Satellite Gravity Signals in a 3D Viscoelastic Earth: Application to the Japanese Subduction System, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11580, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11580, 2026.

EGU26-11605 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.2

Coseismic Surface Deformation Characteristics of the 1915 M7.0 Sangri Earthquake in Tibet 

Junxiang Qiao, Haoyue Sun, and Xin Wang

The spatial distribution and deformation characteristics of coseismic surface rupture zones are fundamental to understanding the rupture behavior of strong earthquakes. They provide critical insights for predicting the extent, scale, and degree of deformation of future events, which is of great significance for assessing the magnitude of potential seismic hazards.

The December 3, 1915, M7.0 Sangri earthquake in the Woka Graben (northern Cona-Woka Rift) is the region’s most recent major seismic event. Historical records place the epicenter near Zangga, identifying the Eastern Boundary Fault (EBF) as the primary seismogenic structure. However, its remote, high-altitude location and coarse legacy satellite imagery have left details undocumented and source parameters poorly constrained. To address this, we integrated UAV-derived centimeter-scale Digital Surface Models (DSM), orthomosaics, and field investigations. This enabled multi-scale, multi-perspective analysis of fault traces, surface rupture geometry, and coseismic deformation.

Refined mapping reveals that the seismogenic EBF manifests as a continuous, single-branch structure with a total length of approximately 60 km. The fault trace is well-defined and can be divided into northern and southern segments by the Delimuqu River. The northern segment extends ~29km in a nearly N-S direction with a westward dip, while the southern segment extends ~31 km with a NNE strike and a NW dip. A distinct coseismic surface rupture zone, ~35 km in length, developed primarily along the entire northern segment and the northern part of the southern segment of the EBF. Field measurements revealed a maximum coseismic vertical displacement of ~2.1m.

Furthermore, we utilized a MATLAB-based displacement measurement program to perform quantitative extraction of cumulative offsets and Cumulative Offset Probability Density (COPD) analysis across 225 investigation sites, yielding an average coseismic vertical displacement of ~0.79 m. Additionally, a fault scarp diffusion age modeling program was employed to constrain the extent of the coseismic surface rupture based on morphological degradation. Analysis of 362 measurement sites via COPD indicated an average diffusion age of 2.05 ± 0.88 kt for the coseismic scarps. The integration of spatial distributions for minimum mean diffusion ages and cumulative vertical displacements allowed us to quantitatively define the coseismic surface rupture length to ~32 km. This result is in excellent agreement with the ~35 km length derived from remote sensing interpretation, validating the reliability of the estimated rupture scale. Using empirical scaling relationships based on the obtained rupture length and the average/maximum vertical displacements, we re-estimated the earthquake magnitude to be Mw 6.71~6.84, highlighting the high seismic potential of the EBF. This study fills a critical gap in the detailed investigation of the coseismic surface rupture of the 1915 Sangri earthquake and underscores the significant utility of high-resolution topographic data in active tectonics research.

How to cite: Qiao, J., Sun, H., and Wang, X.: Coseismic Surface Deformation Characteristics of the 1915 M7.0 Sangri Earthquake in Tibet, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11605, 2026.

EGU26-12056 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.2

3-D Discrete Element Modeling of Continental Fault System Evolution Under Oblique Boundary Conditions 

Adarsh Dwivedi, Yann Klinger, and Luc Scholtès

Oblique displacement in continental tectonic setting often leads to complex fault systems that incorporate both dip-slip and strike-slip motion, with fault geometry and seismic activity developing across subsequent earthquake cycles. Understanding how boundary conditions influence fault growth, rupture dynamics, and off-fault deformation is an ongoing challenge in tectonics and earthquake physics. In this study, we are using three-dimensional discrete element models to analyze the evolution of continental fault systems under oblique boundary conditions.Specifically, we employ a numerical sandbox that represents the continental crust as a brittle layer where deformation can localize as a result of fracture nucleation, propagation and coalescence, without any a priori assumptions on its spatio-temporal evolution. Transtensional and transpressional loadings are applied through combined normal and shear components of deformation. Our simulations show cyclic stick-slip behavior, defined by periods of elastic responses followed by fault ruptures. Thanks to the model’s capability, we analyze the evolution of the emerging fault geometry, the ruptures extent, as well as slip partitioning throughout the simulated earthquake cycles. Particular emphasis is placed on the spatial distribution of damage, the development of fault-related topography on the surface, and the role of obliquity in controlling rupture propagation. Our findings show strong relationships between imposed boundary conditions, fault system configuration, and seismic rupture characteristics.

How to cite: Dwivedi, A., Klinger, Y., and Scholtès, L.: 3-D Discrete Element Modeling of Continental Fault System Evolution Under Oblique Boundary Conditions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12056, 2026.

EGU26-13346 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

Afterslip following the 2023 Mw7.8 and Mw7.6 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes: observations and modeling 

Cyril Lacroix, Baptiste Rousset, Frédéric Masson, Paul Dérand, Romain Jolivet, Ali Özkan, and Hakan Hasan Yavaşoğlu

On February 6, 2023, two earthquakes of magnitude Mw7.8 and Mw7.6 struck in South Türkiye. The first mainshock occurred along the East Anatolian fault, at the boundary between the Anatolian and Arabian plates, and was followed 9 hours later by a second one on a secondary fault system to the North. The importance of such continental earthquakes and the relatively good data coverage of the region present an unique opportunity to investigate post-seismic deformation.

To study afterslip, corresponding to post-seismic transient aseismic slip, we use a combination of ground deformation measurements, including Sentinel-1 InSAR timeseries (6 tracks covering almost 2 years after the earthquakes) and GNSS (more than 40 permanent stations and 60 campaign sites). The cities of Hassa and Gölbaşı, located on the East Anatolian fault, are investigated in detail using 8 continuous GNSS stations installed across the fault 6 months after the earthquakes.

While the large surface imprint of the surface deformation, with significant displacements more than 200 km away from the fault, and our inability to model it with fault slip points toward the dominance of a visco-elastic processus, clear markers of shallow afterslip are visible. In the Pütürge segment, located at the tip of the first earthquake’s coseismic rupture, InSAR data reveals a cumulative surface offset 20 months after the earthquake of about 10 cm due to shallow afterslip. Other segments affected with afterslip have been identified in the eastern part of the rupture of the second earthquake, accounting for several centimeters of slip over 20 months. Our local GNSS networks in Hassa and Gölbaşı reveal the smaller scale complexity of post-seismic surface deformation near the fault. In Gölbaşı, subsidence of more than 2 cm/year is highlighted in the pull-apart basin, while horizontal GNSS displacements suggest possible shallow aseismic slip happening at the southern end of the basin.

We model afterslip on the fault by jointly inverting InSAR and GNSS data, minimizing the least squares criterion. Afterslip is concentrated around the coseismic rupture zone, accompanied by important aftershock activity. The Pütürge segment appears as a seismic barrier, having stopped both Mw6.8 2020 Elazığ earthquake to the East and Mw7.8 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake to the West, possibly because of the fault geometry and/or heterogeneous coupling. Future efforts will be directed towards the evolution of afterslip with time and its interplay with aftershocks, including visco-elastic relaxation models. These results help us better understand the relationship between the different phases of the seismic cycle.

How to cite: Lacroix, C., Rousset, B., Masson, F., Dérand, P., Jolivet, R., Özkan, A., and Yavaşoğlu, H. H.: Afterslip following the 2023 Mw7.8 and Mw7.6 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes: observations and modeling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13346, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13346, 2026.

EGU26-14323 | Orals | TS3.2

Burstiness and memory of large subduction earthquakes: insights from paleoseismology and analogue modelling 

Fabio Corbi, Elvira Latypova, Giacomo Mastella, Francesca Funiciello, Silvia Brizzi, and Simona Guastamacchia

Constraining the timing of large subduction earthquakes remains a fundamental yet unresolved problem in seismic hazard assessment. Although paleoseismic records from many subduction margins suggest predominantly quasi-periodic recurrence of great earthquakes, the large variability observed among different segments and regions raises the question of whether such patterns reflect intrinsic megathrust behavior or, instead, the limitations of the available records. Here we investigate the robustness and interpretability of earthquake recurrence metrics by combining global paleoseismic datasets with scaled seismotectonic models of the subduction megathrust seismic cycle.

We characterize earthquake recurrence using two complementary statistics: burstiness (B), which quantifies the degree of periodicity and clustering of inter-event times, and the memory coefficient (M), which captures temporal correlations between consecutive recurrence intervals. Mapping paleoseismic records from multiple subduction zones onto the M–B plane reveals that most segments exhibit quasi-periodic behavior (B < 0), but span a wide range of memory values, from strongly negative to strongly positive. Notably, this diversity shows no systematic dependence on subduction rate, earthquake rate, or record length, and adjacent segments along the same margin may occupy markedly different regions of the M–B plane.

To assess whether this apparent variability reflects differences in fault dynamics or observational bias, we analyze long, continuous earthquake sequences generated by scaled seismotectonic models. Despite large contrasts in asperity number, size, and along-strike strength heterogeneity, experimental sequences cluster within a relatively narrow domain of the M–B plane. Through controlled subsampling tests, we show that catalog incompleteness, limited along-strike coverage, and short observation windows can substantially shift M and, to a lesser extent, B. 

The analysis of experimental data provides useful constraints on the limits of our ability to infer long-term earthquake recurrence from paleoseismic records, with important implications for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Corbi, F., Latypova, E., Mastella, G., Funiciello, F., Brizzi, S., and Guastamacchia, S.: Burstiness and memory of large subduction earthquakes: insights from paleoseismology and analogue modelling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14323, 2026.

EGU26-15813 | Orals | TS3.2

DEM Modelling-Based Insights into the Controlling Factors of Strike-Slip Fault Segmentation 

Liqing Jiao, Yang Jiao, and Yueqiao Zhang

Strike-slip shearing is widespread in the brittle crust and is typically expressed as segmented rupture zones with characteristic spacing. Yet, the key factors controlling this geometric pattern remain poorly understood. In this study, we use discrete element method (DEM) simulations to systematically explore the fundamental physical and tectonic controls on fault segment spacing in strike-slip systems. Our results show that spacing is influenced by both physical and tectonic factors. Physically, spacing increases with crustal thickness and strength, but decreases with density and gravitational acceleration. A near-linear relationship emerges between the ratio of spacing length to thickness and the ratio of strength to the combined effects of density, gravity, and thickness. Tectonically, spacing is reduced by increasing thrust components but enlarged by extensional components. Pre-existing weak zones strongly localize rupture, while surface topography modulates rupture propagation, with segments preferentially forming in lower-elevation areas. These results offer new insights into the mechanics of segmented strike-slip ruptures on Earth and other planetary bodies and provide a framework for better assessing natural hazard risks.

How to cite: Jiao, L., Jiao, Y., and Zhang, Y.: DEM Modelling-Based Insights into the Controlling Factors of Strike-Slip Fault Segmentation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15813, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15813, 2026.

EGU26-15880 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.2

High-resolution Coral Geodesy in the Solomon Islands 

Mehmet Ege Karaesmen, Luc Lavier, and Frederick Taylor

The classical earthquake cycle is commonly described as alternating between long periods (decades to centuries) of interseismic locking and brief episodes (seconds) of coseismic rupture. However, increasingly dense geodetic observations from recent megathrust earthquakes reveal a more complex spectrum of transient deformation processes that challenge this binary framework. The New Georgia Group in the Solomon Islands provides a unique natural laboratory to investigate these processes, where the Woodlark Basin subducts beneath the Solomon Arc and has generated large megathrust earthquakes, including the 1936 Mw 7.9 and 2007 Mw 8.1 events.

The close proximity of the islands to the trench allows Porites corals to serve as high-resolution recorders of vertical ground motion. While coral morphology has long been used to identify coseismic uplift, we introduce a novel approach that combines coral morphology with stable isotope analysis (δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O) to quantify relative sea-level (RSL) variations at annual resolution. We first assess the robustness of the relationship between coral water depth and δ¹³C using 141 new samples collected across a range of depths formed within the same time interval. For depths between 170 and 110 cm below sea level, δ¹³C exhibits a strong linear correlation with water depth (R² = 0.982), while shallower samples display a non-linear response.

We then apply this RSL proxy to a 692-sample coral time series spanning 1928–2012 and validate the reconstructed RSL against available tide-gauge records. The 2007 Mw 8.1 earthquake is clearly resolved, with coral morphology recording ~70 cm of coseismic uplift expressed as a pronounced die-down surface, accompanied by a δ¹³C excursion exceeding 2‰. The 1936 Mw 7.9 event is similarly captured by a distinct δ¹⁸O anomaly, with postseismic relaxation observed consistently along two independent drilling transects.

Beyond discrete coseismic signals, the record reveals multi-year to decadal periods of uplift and subsidence that we interpret as complex interseismic deformation. In particular, we identify intervals consistent with slow slip activity during 1955–1964, 1977–1986, and 1999–2002. These results demonstrate that stable isotope measurements in corals provide a powerful bridge between instrumental geodesy and paleoseismology, enabling a continuous, high-resolution view of subduction-zone deformation and stress evolution across the full earthquake cycle.

How to cite: Karaesmen, M. E., Lavier, L., and Taylor, F.: High-resolution Coral Geodesy in the Solomon Islands, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15880, 2026.

EGU26-17057 | Posters on site | TS3.2

Linking Fault Geometric Complexity and Cumulative Displacement with Seismic Behavior: Insights from the Gran Sasso Fault System (Central Apennines, Italy) 

houda delleci, Lucilla Benedetti, Magali Riesner, Giulio Di Toro, Michele Fondriest, and John Gallego Montoya

Active normal faults in the Central Apennines accommodate ongoing crustal extension and have generated significant earthquakes (up to Mw ~7) during historical and instrumental times. However, several fault systems, including the Gran Sasso fault system (GSFS), lack documented surface-rupturing earthquakes, raising questions about their structural maturity, role in accommodating the extension in this region, and their potential to generate future large-magnitude events.

Here, we investigate the relationship between fault geometry, cumulative displacement, and slip rate along the Gran Sasso fault system located 19km north of L’Aquila, a system consisting of two major normal faults with an overall length of ~46 km. These include(i) the Campo Imperatore fault, consisting of two segments measuring roughly 20 km and 8 km, and (ii) the Assergi fault, which extends about 18 km along the western flank of the Gran Sasso massif. Both faults exhibit a consistent average W-E orientation with secondary structure tending WNW-ESE. Our aim is to assess the structural maturity and seismic significance of the GSFS within the broader Apennine fault network.

Using high-resolution Pleiades satellite imagery combined with existing geological maps and field observation, we mapped in detail the active fault trace and identified displaced geomorphic markers. The analysis focuses on two main fault segments, the Campo Imperatore and Assergi segments, along which a well-preserved Holocene fault scarp is continuously expressed. Scarp height was measured accurately along strike using several complementary approaches, including field-based observations, topographic profiles extracted from high-resolution DEMs, and the automated ScarpLearn algorithm (Pousse et al., 2022), which identifies and quantifies fault scarp morphology together with associated uncertainties. Preliminary results indicate that vertical displacement varies between ~2 and 16 m, locally reaching up to ~20 m along the Campo Imperatore segment. These results are analyzed in relation to fault architecture to assess how geometric complexities, such as relay zones and step-overs, influence displacement distribution along strike

Field investigations and detailed mapping along the Campo Imperatore fault allowed the identification of three key sites where fluvial terraces and glacial moraines are displaced and can be used as geomorphic markers of fault slip. Samples were collected for ^36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating of these surfaces. When combined with measured offsets, these exposure ages provide constraints on average late Quaternary slip rates and on the long-term activity of the fault, under the assumption that the dated surfaces record cumulative displacement since their abandonment.

How to cite: delleci, H., Benedetti, L., Riesner, M., Di Toro, G., Fondriest, M., and Montoya, J. G.: Linking Fault Geometric Complexity and Cumulative Displacement with Seismic Behavior: Insights from the Gran Sasso Fault System (Central Apennines, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17057, 2026.

EGU26-17450 | Posters on site | TS3.2

Paleoseismology of the Roccapreturo Fault (Central Apennines): Insights from Antithetic Fault Trenching and Image-Enhanced Analysis 

Magali Riesner, John Gallego-Montoya, Lucilla Benedetti, Stefano Pucci, Francesca Romana Cinti, Paolo Boncio, Daniela Pantosti, Alessio Testa, Matthieu Ferry, Stephane Baize, and Bruno Pace

The Roccapreturo Fault (RF) is a 9 km-long NW-SE normal fault forming one of the major segments of the Middle Aterno Valley Fault system, located 20 km south of L’Aquila in the Central Apennines (Italy). Despite its clear seismogenic potential, no earthquakes have been documented in historical sources. Large earthquakes on such structures typically have time intervals of several millennia, making paleoseismology crucial for constraining their long-term seismic behavior. The RF exhibits 150–250 m-high triangular facets and a 10 m-high semi-vertical fault scarp that cuts the Cretaceous limestone sedimentary sequence and delineates the main fault trace. North of Roccapreturo village, Quaternary colluvial deposits and alluvial fans feed a small intermontane basin, bounded by a 25-m-high ridge most probably related to the cumulative displacement along an antithetic fault subparallel to the main fault. We excavated two paleoseismological trenches across this antithetic fault, where a refined sedimentary record enhances the preservation of coseismic deformation. An additional trench was excavated ~1 km south, at the base of the main fault scarp.

Trenches were logged using standard stratigraphic, structural, and event-identification criteria. Event ages were constrained through radiocarbon dating of 23 bulk-sediment and charcoal samples. To complement conventional trench analysis, we implemented an integrated workflow combining conventional paleoseismology with pixel-based image enhancement. This approach exploits multi-temporal orthophotography datasets acquired at different spatial resolutions and times. Photogrammetric products (orthomosaics, true- and false-color RGB composites, 3D textured point clouds, and raster derivatives) were integrated into a georeferenced multi-layer stack to support post-field interpretation and independent validation of trench observations.

In the trenches across the antithetic fault, the basal stratigraphy consists of fine-grained marsh deposits faulted and folded against fractured and brecciated limestone bedrock. These units are overlain by clast-supported colluvial sequences containing wedges that record cumulative vertical displacements of up to ~70 cm, defining multiple paleoearthquake horizons. Three to four surface-rupturing events were identified in the antithetic fault trenches, with clustered ages of 0–1.7 ka, 4–8 ka, 8–13 ka, and 15–21 ka. In contrast, the trench excavated at the base of the main scarp preserves only a single recent event within colluvial deposits, consistent with the youngest event recorded in the antithetic fault trenches.

Previous studies along the main RF focused on cosmogenic dating of the bedrock scarp, estimating Middle Pleistocene slip rates of 0.2–0.3 mm/yr, and on trenching at alluvial-fan intersections. Two Holocene surface-rupturing events (2–8 ka) were identified, indicating a recurrence of about 2 ka and magnitudes up to Mw 6.5. The earthquake events that yielded in our trenches correlate well with previous results, extending the seismic record of the RF into the Late Pleistocene. Together, these results are crucial for constraining the timing and recurrence of surface-rupturing events and for assessing the role of antithetic faults in accommodating distributed deformation within the fault system. In addition, integrating image-enhancement techniques improves the visualization of subtle deformation and stratigraphic relationships, reduces interpretative uncertainty, and provides a scalable, reproducible framework that effectively complements classical paleoseismological trenching.

How to cite: Riesner, M., Gallego-Montoya, J., Benedetti, L., Pucci, S., Cinti, F. R., Boncio, P., Pantosti, D., Testa, A., Ferry, M., Baize, S., and Pace, B.: Paleoseismology of the Roccapreturo Fault (Central Apennines): Insights from Antithetic Fault Trenching and Image-Enhanced Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17450, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17450, 2026.

EGU26-18093 | Orals | TS3.2

When subduction changes its grip: cycle-to-cycle variability in interseismic coupling and coseismic slip 

Elvira Latypova, Jonathan Bedford, Fabio Corbi, Giacomo Mastella, Francesca Funiciello, Simona Guastamacchia, and Silvio Pardo

Identifying frictionally locked regions of subduction megathrusts from geodetic observations remains a challenging task in tectonic geodesy. Natural geodetic records typically capture only a fraction of seismic cycles, restricting our ability to assess temporal variations in interseismic coupling and their relationship to frictionally locked regions on subduction interfaces, commonly referred to as asperities. Clarifying this relationship is important, because interseismic coupling is widely used as an indicator of seismic potential, but coupled regions may include both mechanically locked asperities and surrounding unlocked regions. 

Scaled seismotectonic models provide an effective framework to investigate these processes, by simulating hundreds of seismic cycles within a short time interval under controlled laboratory conditions, with predefined asperity distributions and high-resolution deformation monitoring. 

Here, we explore the spatiotemporal variability of interseismic coupling, coseismic slip and their connection to predefined asperities using Foamquake, a well-established 3D seismotectonic model, which simulates megathrust seismic cycles.

Through kinematic inversions of surface deformation, we derive cycle-by-cycle maps of interseismic coupling and coseismic slip and analyse their statistical behavior across models with different asperity configurations and applied normal stress. Our results show pronounced cycle-to-cycle variability in interseismic coupling, even within asperity regions, with highly coupled areas systematically extending beyond the asperity boundaries. Coseismic slip shows a positive but highly scattered correlation with preceding interseismic coupling, suggesting that while coupling is a necessary condition for large slip, it alone does not determine rupture magnitude.

How to cite: Latypova, E., Bedford, J., Corbi, F., Mastella, G., Funiciello, F., Guastamacchia, S., and Pardo, S.: When subduction changes its grip: cycle-to-cycle variability in interseismic coupling and coseismic slip, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18093, 2026.

EGU26-18225 | Posters on site | TS3.2

How to define the earthquake loading medium: an interdisciplinary approach 

Carolina Giorgetti and Cristiano Collettini

Since Reid formulated the elastic rebound theory in the early 20th century to describe earthquakes in brittle faulting, fault systems have been widely represented by spring–slider models, both in theoretical frameworks and laboratory experiments. From a different perspective, structural geology has long documented fault systems as geometrically complex structures, reflecting the heterogeneous physical properties of different lithologies. These systems are characterised by multiple slip surfaces and secondary fault splays and comprise large volumes of highly damaged rocks. Such damaged volumes are effectively part of the loading medium that is commonly conceptualised, in simplified models, as an elastic spring.

Over the past decades, a wealth of seismological and geodetic observations has shown that these damaged crustal volumes actively deform inelastically during the seismic cycle, rather than merely storing elastic energy. In parallel, numerical models indicate that off-fault damage can account for a significant portion of the earthquake energy budget. Together, these observations challenge the classical representation of the fault loading medium as purely elastic.

Here, we integrate observations spanning outcropping fault-zone descriptions, seismicity catalogues, and laboratory observations to explore how the earthquake loading medium could be more realistically defined and described in natural fault systems. We focus on well-studied seismogenic normal faults in Italy, namely the Gubbio and Norcia faults, where a long-standing and extensive knowledge of the involved lithologies is combined with a high-resolution fault image obtained by both high-quality outcrop exposure and enhanced seismological catalogues, and where the involved rocks have been extensively studied in the laboratory. By adopting this interdisciplinary perspective, we aim to better constrain the nature of the loading medium toward a better estimation of the forcing imbalance that is fundamental to earthquake nucleation.

How to cite: Giorgetti, C. and Collettini, C.: How to define the earthquake loading medium: an interdisciplinary approach, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18225, 2026.

EGU26-18883 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

FASTDASH: an implementation of 3-D earthquake cycle simulation on complex fault systems using the boundary element method accelerated by H-matrices 

Michelle Almakari, Jinhui Cheng, Harsha Bhat, Brice Lecampion, and Carlo Peruzzo

Major fault systems are inherently complex, including geometric features such as multiple interacting fault segments and variations in strike, dip, and depth. Fault geometries can be effectively reconstructed through field observations and seismic monitoring. Many studies have demonstrated that this geometric complexity plays an important role in controlling the initiation, arrest, and recurrence of both seismic and aseismic slip. In particular, 3D variations in fault geometry cannot be neglected.

However, the vast majority of slip-dynamics models are conducted on planar faults due to algorithmic limitations. To overcome this restriction, we develop a 3D quasi-dynamic slip-dynamics model capable of simulating arbitrarily complex fault geometries. In boundary-element methods, the elastic response to fault slip is computed through the multiplication of a dense matrix with a slip rate vector, which are computationally expensive. We accelerate these calculations using hierarchical matrices (H-matrices), reducing the computational complexity from O(N^2) to O(NlogN), where N is the number of elements. The H-matrix parameters provide explicit control over the trade-off between computational efficiency and accuracy.

In our framework, fault geometry is fully arbitrary and discretized using triangular elements. Fault slip is governed by rate-and-state friction laws and loaded by either stressing rates or plate rate. This approach enables efficient simulation of the spatiotemporal evolution of slip and stress on complex fault systems over multiple earthquake cycles.

We validate the model against analytical solutions for static cracks and through a numerical benchmark (SCEC SEAS BP4). Finally, we apply the method to a realistic fault system with complex geometry that was reactivated during the 2023 Kahramanmaraş–Türkiye earthquake doublet. The results highlight the model’s ability to generate complex earthquake sequences driven solely by fault geometry, without including additional complexities such as rheological, frictional, or fluid-interaction effects.

How to cite: Almakari, M., Cheng, J., Bhat, H., Lecampion, B., and Peruzzo, C.: FASTDASH: an implementation of 3-D earthquake cycle simulation on complex fault systems using the boundary element method accelerated by H-matrices, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18883, 2026.

EGU26-19222 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.2

Quality evaluation of assimilation-based forecast of rate-and-state governed fault analog 

Bharath Shanmugasundaram, Harsha Bhat, and Romain Jolivet

During an earthquake, the frictional resistance of a fault suddenly drops to release the elastic energy that has been accumulating over decades to centuries. In addition to the steady increase of stress on faults due to tectonics, external perturbations have been shown to modulate the fault behavior over a wide range of time scales. The spring block slider model following rate-and-state friction framework with velocity-weakening behavior undergoing periodic perturbations has been known to host complex stick-slip events ranging from fast earthquakes to slow earthquakes, making it a good analog of a simple fault. Accurate characterization of system state and tidal forcing parameters is critical for understanding the triggering mechanisms and ultimately improving seismic hazard assessment. In this work, we employ ensemble-based data assimilation techniques to carry out state and joint state-parameter estimation in a tidal modulated spring slider. We perform twin experiments to estimate the tidal perturbation parameters such as period and amplitude. In this scenario, we compare the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (I-EnKS) with ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) variants for joint state-parameter estimation. Using the smoothed estimates, we assess forecast quality by evaluating prediction accuracy over multiple recurrence intervals. To account for model uncertainties, we incorporate additive stochastic forcing to examine its effect on state-parameter estimation and forecast accuracy.

How to cite: Shanmugasundaram, B., Bhat, H., and Jolivet, R.: Quality evaluation of assimilation-based forecast of rate-and-state governed fault analog, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19222, 2026.

EGU26-19316 | Posters on site | TS3.2

Active Tectonics and Paleoseismology of an Extensional Basin: Implications from the Büyük Menderes Graben (Western Anatolia, Türkiye) 

Akın Kürçer, Çağatay Çal, Oğuzhan Yalvaç, Halil Gürsoy, and Hasan Elmacı

Western Anatolia represents one of the most active continental extensional domains within the Alpine–Himalayan orogenic system. Ongoing NNE–SSW extension has produced a system of E–W–trending grabens and half-grabens controlled by active normal faults. These basins provide natural laboratories to investigate the interaction between fault-controlled deformation, sedimentary basin evolution, and seismic hazard. A key characteristic of such extensional basins is the presence of thick, unconsolidated basin fills overlying competent basement rocks. This strong mechanical contrast promotes seismic wave trapping and amplification, leading to prolonged ground-motion duration and increased shaking intensity. Similar basin-related effects have been documented in other extensional and transtensional settings worldwide (e.g., the Basin and Range Province, Central Apennines, and the Aegean region), highlighting their importance for seismic risk in densely populated areas.

The Büyük Menderes Graben is one of the largest and most mature extensional basins in Western Anatolia and hosts several major population centers. Paleoseismological investigations carried out on the main basin-bounding normal faults reveal repeated surface-rupturing earthquakes during the Holocene. These data show that fault segmentation, fault length, and basin geometry play a primary role in controlling earthquake magnitude, rupture characteristics, and recurrence patterns. At a regional scale (~100 km), several active faults have the potential to generate moderate to large earthquakes (Mw ~6.0–7.1). The combined effects of distributed fault deformation and basin amplification imply that seismic hazard in extensional provinces cannot be assessed solely based on proximity to individual faults. Instead, an integrated approach that considers fault interaction, basin geometry, and site effects is required.

In this study, trench-based paleoseismological investigations were carried out along the İncirliova, Umurlu, and Atça segments forming the northern margin of the Büyük Menderes Graben (BMG). In trenches excavated along all three segments, strong evidence was obtained for Holocene earthquakes that produced surface faulting. Preliminary findings suggest that the 22 February 1653 Menderes Valley earthquake (Ms6.7) may have originated from the İncirliova Segment, whereas the 20 September 1899 Menderes Valley earthquake (Ms6.9) was likely generated by the Umurlu and Atça Segments.

This study synthesizes active tectonic observations, paleoseismological trench data, and basin-scale geological constraints from the Büyük Menderes Graben to highlight how extensional basins amplify seismic risk beyond simple fault-based models. The results have broader implications for seismic hazard assessment in other active continental rift and graben systems worldwide, particularly where rapidly growing urban areas are built on young sedimentary basins.

How to cite: Kürçer, A., Çal, Ç., Yalvaç, O., Gürsoy, H., and Elmacı, H.: Active Tectonics and Paleoseismology of an Extensional Basin: Implications from the Büyük Menderes Graben (Western Anatolia, Türkiye), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19316, 2026.

EGU26-19344 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

Using dense 36Cl profiles to assess the seismic history of the Roccapreturo Fault (Italy)  

Maureen Llinares, Lucilla Benedetti, Ghislain Gassier, and Magali Riesner

The Roccapreturo fault, part of the Middle Aterno Valley Fault system in the central Apennines (Italy), is a key structure for understanding the region’s seismic hazard. Despite evidence of Quaternary activity, its Holocene seismic history remains poorly constrained, with no historical earthquakes directly attributed to this fault. In this study, high- and low-resolution 36Cl cosmogenic nuclide profiles from five sites along the Roccapreturo limestone fault scarp were used to reconstruct the seismic history of this fault. The seismic history was constrained using PyMDS inversion algorithm (Llinares et al., 2025), which relies on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to infer the timing and slip of past surface-rupturing earthquakes.

Our results indicate at least five major seismic events over the last ~18,000 years, with coherent clusters at ~5 ka, ~3.5 ka, ~2–3 ka, ~1 ka, and <0.5 ka BP on at least two sites. The most recent event, dated at ~300 years BP, could correspond to a previously unattributed historical earthquake. Slip Rates (SRs) over the Pleistocene, estimated from high resolution profiles, range from 0.1 to 0.4 mm/yr, which is consistent with previous studies (Falcucci et al., 2015; Tesson et al., 2020) and InSAR data (Daout et al., 2023).  SRs over the Holocene are higher (~1–2 mm/yr), suggesting temporal variability. The study also discusses methodological advances, including the value of dense sampling, the use of statistical changepoint detection, and the integration of fuzzy statistics to address uncertainties in seismic history derived from 36Cl dataset from limestone fault scarp.

These findings provide new constraints on the seismic behavior of the Roccapreturo fault, highlight the importance of multi-site and high-resolution approaches, and underscore the need for further paleoseismological and historical investigations to refine the seismic hazard assessment in the central Apennines.

How to cite: Llinares, M., Benedetti, L., Gassier, G., and Riesner, M.: Using dense 36Cl profiles to assess the seismic history of the Roccapreturo Fault (Italy) , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19344, 2026.

EGU26-19393 | Posters on site | TS3.2

Velocity-Dependent Friction and Its Role in the Evolution of Surface Deformation and Topography in Strike-Slip Fault Systems 

Ernst Willingshofer, Ehsan Kosari, Lise Wassens, and Ylona van Dinther

Strike-slip faults accommodate plate motion through a coupled spectrum of abrupt seismic rupture and distributed, aseismic creep that coexist and interact within the same fault system. Yet the surface expression of these behaviours remains poorly constrained, largely because the short-term physics of frictional instability and the long-term construction of fault-zone morphology are rarely observed within a single framework. Here, we address this gap using seismotectonic analogue experiments designed to isolate how velocity-dependent (velocity-weakening and velocity-strengthening) and neutral frictional regimes govern both transient and cumulative deformation in strike-slip systems. The experiments reproduce hundreds of analogue earthquake cycles along a laboratory strike-slip fault system to build topography while simultaneously measuring shear force, acoustic emissions, and full-field surface displacements. By systematically modifying fault material properties and boundary conditions, we analyse their mechanical and geometric consequences.

We argue that the distinction between velocity-weakening, neutral, and strengthening friction is not merely a control on whether earthquakes occur but also organizes fault-zone architecture. In the velocity-weakening zone, deformation is expected to concentrate episodically into narrow, migrating shear bands that imprint discontinuous, step-like surface relief. In contrast, velocity-strengthening and velocity-neutral regimes should promote diffuse surface strain, topographic gradients, and a cumulative memory of stable slip. Investigating the interaction between these regimes provides a mechanical explanation for natural strike-slip faults that often display coexisting seismic segments and creeping sections. By linking fault frictional heterogeneity to measurable surface deformation patterns, we aim to contribute to presenting a mechanical and morphological framework for strike-slip fault evolution.

How to cite: Willingshofer, E., Kosari, E., Wassens, L., and van Dinther, Y.: Velocity-Dependent Friction and Its Role in the Evolution of Surface Deformation and Topography in Strike-Slip Fault Systems, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19393, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19393, 2026.

EGU26-19397 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

Advancing Paleoseismology with Integrated Hyperspectral and Multi-Sensor Approaches: Enhanced Interpretation of Trenches and Active Fault Scarps in Spain and Italy 

John Jairo Gallego Montoya, María Ortuño, Lucilla Benedetti, Moritz Kirsch, Samuel Thiele, David Garcia-Sellés, Magali Riesner, Eduardo García-Meléndez, and Marc Ollé-López

Paleoseismology extends earthquake records by documenting geological evidence of past surface-rupturing events, providing constraints for seismic source characterization, and improving the understanding of fault behavior. The reliability of paleoseismological interpretations depends on observational data and analytical methods. Conventional trenching and bedrock-scarp studies face uncertainties, as surface processes can obscure subtle deformation, and chronological correlations between units are often poorly constrained. Ground-based remote and direct sensing techniques now enable centimeter-scale multi-sensor datasets that significantly enhance observation and documentation of paleoseismic evidence.

This study builds on established methodologies to explore the integration of ground-based hyperspectral imaging, LiDAR, photogrammetry, and direct field measurements for improved detection of coseismic deformation, paleoearthquake identification, and 2D–3D reconstructions of fault displacement (for slip-rate estimation). The approach is applied to two active tectonic settings in the western Mediterranean: the Alhama de Murcia Fault within the Eastern Betics (SE Spain), with dominant transpression, and the Southern Fucino Fault System, Central Apennines (Italy), with dominant extension. At first, paleoseismological trenches were studied in alluvial sediments at the Saltador site. Second, an exhumed limestone fault scarp was analyzed at the San Sebastiano site.

At the Saltador site, 13 wall trenches excavated parallel and perpendicular to the fault, together with a natural outcrop, were logged using conventional paleoseismology and combined with remote sensing to reconstruct 2D–3D fault deformation and identify displaced alluvial-channel piercing points for slip-rate estimation. At San Sebastiano, LiDAR and photogrammetric data were combined with direct field measurements (spectroradiometry and Schmidt hammer rebound values) to characterize fault-surface roughness, mineralogical variability, and rock mass properties, to detect progressive scarp exhumation, building on existing 36Cl cosmogenic constraints. Hyperspectral imagery was acquired using an AISA Fenix 1K (400–2500 nm) at the Saltador and SPECIM FX10/FX17 (400–1700 nm) at San Sebastiano. Radiometric correction, co-registration with point clouds, and illumination modeling were performed using the hylite package. Subsequent processing included dimensionality reduction (MNF, PCA) and mineral-sensitive band ratios for lithological and structural discrimination.

The integration of hyperspectral data enhanced paleoseismological interpretations in both study areas by reducing uncertainties in coseismic deformation and surface rupture detection. At the Saltador site, previously unrecognized secondary faults and surface ruptures within alluvial sediments were revealed. Spectral band ratios improved the discrimination of sedimentary facies and erosional contacts, strengthening the identification of piercing points and deformation patterns. At least three paleoearthquake events over the past ~34 ka were confirmed, enabling refined 3D reconstructions of offset deposits and an estimated horizontal slip rate of ~0.2 mm/yr for the studied fault branch.

At San Sebastiano, visible to near-infrared hyperspectral data captured spatial variability in alteration minerals (e.g., hematite–goethite and, possibly, hydrated clay minerals), delineating vertical spectral zones that correspond to 36Cl-dated exhumation clusters, suggesting a link between mineralogical variability and progressive scarp exhumation. Combined with roughness and rock-strength measurements, these results could help to refine scarp exhumation rates, surface-rupturing earthquake sequences, and spatial variability in fault-rock exposure.

Overall, hyperspectral and multi-sensor ground-based techniques can enhance the reliability, reproducibility, and robustness of paleoseismological analyses in complex tectonic settings.

How to cite: Gallego Montoya, J. J., Ortuño, M., Benedetti, L., Kirsch, M., Thiele, S., Garcia-Sellés, D., Riesner, M., García-Meléndez, E., and Ollé-López, M.: Advancing Paleoseismology with Integrated Hyperspectral and Multi-Sensor Approaches: Enhanced Interpretation of Trenches and Active Fault Scarps in Spain and Italy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19397, 2026.

EGU26-19444 | Orals | TS3.2

 The Dual Role of Low-Plasticity Fines in the Cyclic Behaviour of Sand–Clay Mixtures 

Vedran Jagodnik, Kamil Bekir Afacan, James Leak, and Davor Marušić

Understanding how sand–fines mixtures respond cyclically is crucial for assessing liquefaction risks and how soil stiffness decreases under seismic forces. Fines, especially low-plasticity clays, greatly influence the buildup of excess pore pressure and strain during cyclic loading. However, their mechanical role at moderate fines levels is not yet fully understood.

This study presents findings from a series of stress-controlled undrained cyclic triaxial tests performed on clean sand and sand–clay mixtures. The base material consisted of a uniformly graded sand combined with low-plasticity kaolinite clay, with fines content of 10% and 15% by dry weight. In order to accurately determine the full role of fines content on the mechanical response, grading entropy coordinates where calculated for each mixture.

Cyclic loading involved applying a sinusoidal deviator stress of constant amplitude under undrained conditions. Throughout the tests, axial strain development and excess pore pressure were continuously monitored. Liquefaction was identified using two complementary criteria: (i) initial liquefaction, indicated by the complete loss of effective stress caused by excess pore pressure, and (ii) strain-based criteria, which relied on different double-amplitude axial strain thresholds.

The results demonstrate that higher fines content slows the development of excess pore pressure and delays the onset of liquefaction compared to clean sand. Both sand–clay mixtures showed less strain accumulation during initial cyclic loading, due to changes in pore space compressibility and drainage caused by low-plasticity clay. Nevertheless, at higher strain levels, significant cyclic softening, notable stiffness loss, and increased residual pore pressures were observed.

The findings emphasise the dual role of low-plasticity fines: moderate fines levels can improve cyclic resistance, while higher fines contents may weaken the granular framework and hinder effective stress transfer. The study underscores the importance of detailed analysis of void ratio and soil structure for accurately assessing the cyclic behaviour and liquefaction potential of sand–fines mixtures.

How to cite: Jagodnik, V., Bekir Afacan, K., Leak, J., and Marušić, D.:  The Dual Role of Low-Plasticity Fines in the Cyclic Behaviour of Sand–Clay Mixtures, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19444, 2026.

EGU26-19479 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

Seismic imaging in the laboratory: Reframing fault stability using elastic-wave observables 

Michele De Solda, Giacomo Mastella, Michele Mauro, Giovanni Guglielmi, and Marco Maria Scuderi

A growing body of geophysical observations, numerical simulations, and theoretical studies indicates that the evolution of the internal structure of fault zones strongly influences fault slip behavior. However, the theoretical frameworks most commonly used to describe fault stability—such as rate-and-state friction—were originally formulated to represent frictional sliding at idealized laboratory interfaces, in which the fault is treated as an effectively two-dimensional boundary with implicitly prescribed contact-scale processes. As a result, these models do not explicitly account for the space–time evolution of fault-zone structure, including damage, granular reorganization, and fluid-mediated processes. Moreover, the state variables used to represent contact evolution are phenomenological and are only weakly constrained by seismological observations, limiting the ability of these formulations to be rigorously applied across spatial and temporal scales.

Here, we propose an experimentally derived theoretical framework that reformulates fault stability in terms of internal variables directly linked to elastic-wave observables. Using double direct shear experiments on gouge layers under controlled boundary conditions, we combine mechanical measurements with active ultrasonic probing. Full waveform inversion is employed to reconstruct one-dimensional profiles of shear modulus and attenuation across the entire sample during normal and shear loading, stable sliding, and stick–slip events.

Ultrasonic waves induce only a small perturbation in strain and therefore probe the linearized constitutive response of the system without modifying its internal state. In this context, effective elastic stiffness and attenuation can be treated as internal variables that encode the evolving fabric and organization of the fault zone. The inverted profiles reveal spatially localized regions within the gouge where elastic properties evolve during slip instabilities, enabling a data-driven identification of the dynamically active fault region, distinct from the mechanically inactive surrounding material.

Based on these observations, we reframe the classical stiffness competition problem that defines the criteria for slip instability entirely in terms of observable quantities. Specifically, we propose to substitute the phenomenological state variable with the retrieved effective viscoelastic properties. Because elastic wave propagation obeys the same governing equations across laboratory and geophysical scales, this framework provides a physically grounded pathway for connecting laboratory experiments, numerical models, and seismological imaging of natural faults. More broadly, it represents a step toward a theory of fault mechanics grounded in seismological observables and geologically relevant fault-zone structures.

How to cite: De Solda, M., Mastella, G., Mauro, M., Guglielmi, G., and Scuderi, M. M.: Seismic imaging in the laboratory: Reframing fault stability using elastic-wave observables, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19479, 2026.

EGU26-19796 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

Multi-segmented rupture, coseismically-triggered aseismic slip, and shallow rake rotation during the 2025 Mw 7.1 Tingri, South Tibet, earthquake 

Mathilde Marchandon, Yohai Magen, James Hollingsworth, and Alice-Agnes Gabriel

On January 5, 2025, the Mw 7.0 Tingri earthquake ruptured the Dingmuco fault in the Xainza-Dinggye rift, Southern Tibet. This event was the largest normal-faulting earthquake recorded in the slowly deforming Southern Tibetan rift system and is among the largest continental normal-faulting earthquakes worldwide. Understanding the mechanics of the Tingri earthquake provides a unique opportunity to understand the regional tectonics and the rupture processes of large continental normal-faulting earthquakes in evolving rift systems. 

Here, we combine space geodetic analysis and 3D dynamic rupture simulations to investigate the earthquake. Our geodetic analysis, based on near-fault 3D optical displacement measurements and a joint optical-InSAR-SAR fault slip inversion, indicates oblique normal-left-lateral slip on a west-dipping fault that steepens toward the surface, with an average slip of 1.8 m and a shallow slip deficit of 60%. Both our fault zone width estimates and our geodetic slip model show an increase in slip-obliquity toward the surface, with left-lateral slip reaching the surface more efficiently than dip-slip, a pattern consistent with shallow rake rotation. Our geodetic analysis also reveals 0.5 m of shallow normal slip on a secondary antithetic fault located 20 km west of the main fault, which did not host aftershocks.

Next, we perform 3D dynamic rupture simulations with the open-source software SeisSol, incorporating geodetically constrained main and antithetic fault geometries, heterogeneous initial stress and fast velocity-weakening rate-and-state friction. A preferred dynamic rupture scenario that reproduces the observations suggests pulse-like, subshear rupture, with a modeled average stress drop of 6.3 MPa, higher than the observationally inferred average for normal faulting earthquakes.  A strong velocity-weakening behavior at depth, characterized by a large negative stability parameter (a − b) = −0.009, transitioning to velocity-strengthening behavior in the shallowest ~2 km is required to reproduce the observed slip distribution and moment rate release. None of our dynamic rupture scenarios dynamically triggers slip on the antithetic fault. The maximum positive dynamic and static  stress changes due to rupture on the main fault occur at shallow depths of the antithetic fault, where it is expected to be governed by velocity-strengthening friction. Together with the shallow geodetically inferred slip and the absence of aftershocks, these results indicate that slip on the antithetic fault might have occurred aseismically. However, future events across the same fault system may involve deeper coseismic slip on both faults. The high stress drop and large shallow slip deficit are characteristics of rupture on an immature fault such as the Dingmuco fault. Our study demonstrates that combining geodetic analysis with dynamic rupture simulations can shed light on  the physical processes governing seismic and aseismic slip in continental rift systems. 

How to cite: Marchandon, M., Magen, Y., Hollingsworth, J., and Gabriel, A.-A.: Multi-segmented rupture, coseismically-triggered aseismic slip, and shallow rake rotation during the 2025 Mw 7.1 Tingri, South Tibet, earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19796, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19796, 2026.

EGU26-19962 | Posters on site | TS3.2

Surface rupture characteristics and macroseismic effects of the 2025 Mw 7.7 Sagaing fault earthquake in central Myanmar 

Lin Thu Aung, Soe Min, Khaing Nyein Htay, Toe Naing Mann, Chit San Maung, Htin Aung Kyaw, Aung Kyaw, Sang-Ho Yun, and Aron J. Meltzner

The 2025 M 7.7 Myanmar earthquake affected over 30 million people across Myanmar and the broader Asian region. The earthquake caused over 5,000 fatalities, injured thousands, and left several hundred people missing. Damage extended across Myanmar, Thailand, and China, with strong shaking felt throughout Southeast Asia. The rupture propagated for over 450 km, one of the longest strike-slip earthquake ruptures worldwide, cutting through densely populated and economically important regions of central Myanmar. However, the ongoing military coup and subsequent civil conflict between the central army and People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) severely limited rescue operations and ground-based field investigations. As a result, the assessment of rupture characteristics and, slip distribution, remains limited due to gaps in ground observations.

In this study, we investigate rupture characteristics and coseismic offsets using ground-based field survey data integrated with remote-sensing observations and social media-derived felt reports and rupture information. Near the northern rupture termination, which coincides with an active conflict area, we mapped rupture patterns using newly updated Google Earth imagery, validated through reports of rupture posted by locals on social media (Facebook). Along the inferred 1839 M7+ rupture segment, details of the surface rupture were documented using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and tape-and-compass surveys. In the restricted regions controlled by the central army, from Nay Pyi Taw to the southern rupture termination, coseismic offsets were measured using tape-and-compass methods only.

Slip amounts measured from ground-based surveys south of Mandalay systematically underestimate offsets determined from remote sensing, suggesting a significant fraction of the deformation occurred beyond a few meters of the main fault zone. Nonetheless, our mapping indicates that the 2025 surface rupture partially or fully overlapped multiple earlier historical Sagaing fault ruptures, including those in 1839 (Mw 7+), 1956 (Mw 7.1), 1929 (Mw ~7.0), 1930 (Mw 7.3) and 2012 (Mw 6.8). The observed macroseismic effects are comparable to those inferred for the 1839 Ava earthquake, which was poorly understood due to limited historical data. These ground-based data provide critical insights into the rupture behaviour over multiple earthquake cycles of fault segments that, at least in 2025, are inferred to have produced supershear rupture.

How to cite: Aung, L. T., Min, S., Htay, K. N., Mann, T. N., Maung, C. S., Kyaw, H. A., Kyaw, A., Yun, S.-H., and Meltzner, A. J.: Surface rupture characteristics and macroseismic effects of the 2025 Mw 7.7 Sagaing fault earthquake in central Myanmar, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19962, 2026.

EGU26-20257 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.2

Rupture Jumping Across Fault Stepovers: An Extension of Rupture-Tip Theory of Elongated Earthquakes 

Vincent van der Heiden, Huihui Weng, Jean-Paul Ampuero, and Ylona van Dinther

Stepovers between fault segments are a key structural control on rupture propagation, often determining whether ruptures terminate or cascade into large, multi-segment earthquakes. These dynamics critically influence earthquake magnitude and seismic hazard. Theoretical models, in particular the rupture-tip equation of motion for elongated ruptures (Weng & Ampuero, 2019), describe rupture growth along planar faults of finite widths. However, they do not account for the potential of rupture jumping across geometric discontinuities or frictional barriers. In this study, we use 2.5D dynamic rupture simulations with the spectral element method (SEM2DPACK software) to determine how the critical distance Hc for rupture jumping across stepovers in elongated fault systems of two parallel normal faults depends on prestress level S’ and seismogenic width W (Fig. a). We simulate dynamic rupture on a primary fault and record the resulting stress perturbations on a locked secondary fault. The critical stepover distance Hc​ is determined by computing the strength excess required for Coulomb failure on the secondary fault over a static process zone Lc. This approach is validated by complete dynamic rupture simulations in a selected set of fault stepover cases. For two co-planar faults we find a Hc/W ~ 1/S’n scaling relationship with n=2 for short Hc (near-field) and n=1/2 for large Hc (far-field) (Fig. b), consistent with dynamic nucleation thresholds with stepovers. For non-co-planar faults we find a Hc/W ~ 1/S’n scaling relationship with n=1 for near-field transitioning to n=2 for far-field (Fig. c). This transition is governed by the angular dependence of the stopping phase emitted by rupture arrest on the primary fault and the resulting dynamic trigger. These scaling relationships for co-planar and non-co-planar faults will be incorporated into the rupture-tip equation of motion, extending its applicability to segmented fault systems. The updated framework will improve assessment of rupture potential in complex fault networks, such as the 2023 Kahramanmaraş sequence (strike-slip), the 2010 Maule earthquake (subduction zone), and the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake (multifault rupture), as well as for induced earthquakes (e.g., the Groningen gas field). Particularly, extrapolating our results suggests that faults with small W need to be highly critically stressed to jump over even short distances (e.g., >94% stressed to jump over 300 m in Groningen’s 300 m wide gas reservoir). Since fault slip is expected to occur locally before reaching such high averaged stresses, this implies that rupture jumping in induced seismicity settings with small W is highly unlikely. These findings contribute to a unified theory of rupture propagation incorporating complex segmented systems.

How to cite: van der Heiden, V., Weng, H., Ampuero, J.-P., and van Dinther, Y.: Rupture Jumping Across Fault Stepovers: An Extension of Rupture-Tip Theory of Elongated Earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20257, 2026.

EGU26-20817 | Posters on site | TS3.2

Assessing the longevity and stationarity of surface velocities for seismic hazard in the central Apennines (Italy) by combining InSAR and fully dynamic earthquake cycle modeling 

Erwan Pathier, Maaike Fonteijn, Alexander Koelzer, Anne Socquet, Niek van Veenhuizen, and Ylona van Dinther

The central Apennines (Italy) are characterized by active normal faulting that is largely clustered in space and time, as documented by both historical and paleoseismic records. The 2016-2017 central Italy earthquake sequence, comprising a series of Mw 5 to Mw 6.5 events within half a year, exemplifies this behavior. Over longer timescales, 36Cl dating of Holocene fault scarps reveals earthquake clustering in the Fucino basin. Although the central Apennines have dense geodetic and seismological observations, these instrumental datasets only cover a small portion of the seismic cycle. This raises fundamental questions about how representative the present-day deformation signals are of long-term tectonic loading and seismic hazard. Here, we address the following questions: How representative is the current geodetic signal over multiple earthquake cycles in an area characterized by a dense fault network? How do surface velocities evolve through the earthquake cycle, and how does the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes relate to this evolution?

We combine new InSAR observations with newly developed seismo-thermo-mechanical models with an invariant rate-and-state friction (STM-RSF) and a visco-elasto-plastic rheology in a geodynamic framework. This fully dynamic earthquake cycle model resolves the inter-, post- and co-seismic periods, as well as cumulative deformation over several seismic cycles. We build on previous STM modeling in the central Apennines (Fonteijn et al., in prep). Faulting is localized on pre-defined weak zones from geology and the Fault2SHA active faults database, but can also occur outside the weak zones.

We analyzed InSAR time-series to study interseismic surface deformation in the central Apennines. We detect significant short wavelength velocity variations across faults of 0.5 to 2 mm/yr, which could possibly be explained by bookshelf faulting. Additionally, we simulated an earthquake sequence of six large normal-faulting earthquakes over ~8000 years in the central Apennines. These earthquakes occur on different normal faults in sequence before faults are reactivated, with rupture on one fault transferring stresses to adjacent faults. We also find rupture of a spontaneously arising antithetic fault and accumulated vertical displacement shows block-faulting behavior. We assess the variability of interseismic surface displacements and compare with InSAR interseismic displacements. Preliminary results show significant variations in vertical velocities in both duration and intensity over 8000 years, with alternating periods of subsidence and uplift in the orogen. This new modelling approach for the first time allows for a comparison of surface displacements over multiple earthquake cycles with short-term geodetic observations. The outcome of this study will have important implications for how to use geodetic data for seismic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Pathier, E., Fonteijn, M., Koelzer, A., Socquet, A., van Veenhuizen, N., and van Dinther, Y.: Assessing the longevity and stationarity of surface velocities for seismic hazard in the central Apennines (Italy) by combining InSAR and fully dynamic earthquake cycle modeling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20817, 2026.

EGU26-20840 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.2

Improving Real-Time Earthquake Source Characterization Using Diffusion Model Based Broadband Envelope Synthetics 

Francesco Alexandr Colosimo, Dario Jozinović, and Maren Böse

Reliable real-time earthquake source characterization requires the rapid selection of solutions from competing algorithms while minimizing false alarms. To address this challenge, Jozinović et al. (2024) have proposed a ground-motion-envelope-based goodness-of-fit approach that  ranks candidate source solutions using amplitude ratios and cross-correlation between observed and predicted waveform envelopes. In its current implementation, however, this approach relies on the ground motion envelope prediction model of Cua (2005), which is limited to small-to-moderate sized  earthquakes. 

In this work, we explore the benefits and limitations of replacing this empirical model with envelopes derived from machine-learning-generated broadband (up to 50 Hz) synthetic waveforms (Palgunadi et al., 2025). These synthetics are generated using a conditional denoising diffusion model, conditioned on preliminary source parameters (magnitude, hypocentral distance, depth), and site effects. For large magnitude events, we superpose point-source synthetics to produce realistic finite-fault rupture waveforms using the  SWEET workflow (Colosimo, MSc thesis).

We find that the diffusion-based synthetics extrapolate realistically across a broader magnitude range and reproduce observed envelope characteristics as well as, or even better than, the empirical prediction model. This capability has the potential to enable  earlier and more reliable identification of correct source solutions, reduce magnitude and location bias, and improve robustness for larger events.

 

How to cite: Colosimo, F. A., Jozinović, D., and Böse, M.: Improving Real-Time Earthquake Source Characterization Using Diffusion Model Based Broadband Envelope Synthetics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20840, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20840, 2026.

EGU26-21171 | Posters on site | TS3.2

Modelling complex fault systems with the Particle Finite Element Method (P-FEM) 

Andrea Bistacchi, Matteo Ciantia, Riccardo Castellanza, Silvia Mittempergher, and Federico Agliardi

Developing numerical models of faulting in the upper crust remains a challenge due to limitations in numerical algorithms and problems in choosing realistic constitutive models. This results in strong limitations when trying to model the strain and stress fields, and elastic and plastic energy release (i.e. stress times strain), under realistic parametrization obtained from lab experiments, particularly regarding mechanical and chemical weakening that leads to localization as observed in nature.

Here we explore applications of the Geotechnical Particle Finite Element Method (P-FEM), a large-deformation numerical tool developed to capture detailed progressive failure and fracturing using a non-local formulation.

P-FEM allows modelling localized shear bands that naturally emerge independent of mesh discretization, both in thickness and orientation. Moreover, continuous remeshing in a Lagrangian framework enables modeling of large deformations, and techniques used to minimize numerical diffusion help produce realistic localized shear/fault zone patterns.

The elastoplastic constitutive models can be calibrated using multi-method lab tests (e.g. monoaxial, triaxial, Brazilian, oedometer, etc.) to include complex non-linear effects, such as strain weakening and softening, poroelasticity, strength envelopes with a cap (i.e. porosity collapse in compression), and mechano-chemical degradation. This allows for realistic simulations of geo-materials with contrasting properties, including non- or weakly-cohesive fault gouges, weak porous rocks, and stronger brittle frictional-plastic materials.

After an overview of the method, we will show how P-FEM is particularly suited for investigating deformation in the upper crust including (i) fault nucleation and growth in mechanically layered materials, (ii) the interplay between faulting and folding in thrust belts, and (iii) the development of fault damage and/or process zones in materials with heterogeneous mechanical properties.

How to cite: Bistacchi, A., Ciantia, M., Castellanza, R., Mittempergher, S., and Agliardi, F.: Modelling complex fault systems with the Particle Finite Element Method (P-FEM), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21171, 2026.

EGU26-21225 | Posters on site | TS3.2

Integrating Structural, Geomechanical, and Passive Seismic Data to Investigate Site Effects along an Active Normal Fault Zone 

Alberto Pizzi, Silvia Giallini, Maurizio Simionato, Chiara Puricelli, and Alessandro Pagliaroli

Understanding earthquake site effects in fault-controlled geological settings remains a key challenge for seismic hazard assessment, particularly in intramontane basins affected by active normal faulting. In these settings, fault-zone site effects are expected due to the abrupt contact between thick soft and/or granular sedimentary basin-fill and the carbonate bedrock, which is characterized by highly variable fracture intensity and orientation.

In this study, we present the results of a multidisciplinary investigation aimed at characterizing fault-related site effects along the Monte Morrone fault system, a major Quaternary normal fault bounding the eastern margin of the Sulmona intramontane basin (Central Apennines, Italy) and recognized as a key seismogenic structure in the region.

A passive seismic survey was conducted at three sites located along the fault zone: Eremo di Sant’Onofrio, Roccacasale North, and Roccacasale South. The two Roccacasale sites are structurally located within the fault core and damage zone of the Monte Morrone fault system, characterized by intense deformation and pervasive fracturing. Ambient noise data were acquired and processed using the Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio (H/V) technique to investigate resonance frequencies and potential directional amplification effects. Where suitable reference conditions were identified, the data were further analyzed using the Standard Spectral Ratio (SSR) technique to provide a more robust estimate of relative amplification.

Geophysical observations were integrated with detailed structural and geomechanical field measurements. These include fault architecture mapping, fracture density and fracture orientation analysis, and in-situ rock mass characterization through Schmidt hammer rebound measurements. The combined dataset highlights significant lateral variations in seismic response between the investigated sites, which can be directly related to the features of the fault-zone structures, damage intensity, and rock mass stiffness. Directional amplification patterns observed in H/V are consistent with the dominant orientation of fault-related discontinuities, suggesting a strong structural control on local seismic response.

Our results are consistent with previous studies documenting fault-controlled site effects and directional amplification within active fault zones in the central Apennines (e.g., Pischiutta et al., 2013, Vignaroli et al., 2019), and further emphasize the role of fault-core properties and damage-zone architecture in modulating seismic ground motion. These findings support the growing evidence that structural heterogeneities within regional fault zones play a key role in controlling seismic wave propagation and site effects, even at rock sites traditionally considered mechanically homogeneous. Our results suggest that fault cores and associated damage zones should be treated as mechanically distinct domains, characterized by stiffness contrasts and velocity anisotropies capable of modifying the amplitude, frequency content, and directionality of seismic ground motion.

From an application perspective, the multidisciplinary dataset presented here provides further evidence of the importance of correctly representing fault zones in two-dimensional subsurface models for numerical simulations of local seismic response. Explicitly considering the internal architecture of faulted rock masses, rather than assuming uniform "bedrock" conditions, can significantly improve ground motion modeling and help reduce uncertainties in seismic microzonation studies in tectonically active regions.

References

Vignaroli et al., 2019 Domains of seismic noise... BEGE, doi.org/10.1007/s10064-018-1276

Pischiutta et al., 2017. Structural control on the directional.. EPSL, doi:10. 1016/j.epsl.2017.04.017

How to cite: Pizzi, A., Giallini, S., Simionato, M., Puricelli, C., and Pagliaroli, A.: Integrating Structural, Geomechanical, and Passive Seismic Data to Investigate Site Effects along an Active Normal Fault Zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21225, 2026.

The Yingjing-Mabian-Yanjin tectonic blet (YMYTB) serves as a critical boundary structure between the southeastern margin of the Tibet Plateau and the Sichuan Basin. Although seismicities has been frequent since the late Quaternary, the activity of individual faults within the tectonic belt remains unclear, introducing significant uncertainty in understanding and assessing the current regional crustal deformation patterns and seismic hazards. Particularly, the southern segment of the tectonic belt near the Leibo fault has experienced the 1216 Mahu M7 earthquake and several strong earthquake swarms of magnitude 6 or above. However, research on this fault zone is limited, and there is still a lack of reliable evidence to determine its most recent activity period and its relationship with nearby major earthquakes.

To address this issue, this study conducted paleoseismic trenches on the northern, central, and southern branches of the Leibo fault, based on the interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing imagery and field geological-geomorphological investigations. The following conclusions were drawn:

(1) Based on paleoseismic event identification markers, three, three, and five paleoseismic events were revealed on the three branch faults, respectively. Dating results of radiocarbon samples constrained the occurrence times of the three paleoseismic events on the northern branch fault to 21,190–20,590 BC (EP1), 20,550–12,120 BC (EP2), and after 12,090 BC (EP3). The timings of the three strong seismic activities on the central branch fault were 7,400–6,320 BC (EY1), 5,690–2,620 BC (EY2), and 2,220 BC–170 AD (EY3). The occurrence times of the five surface-rupturing seismic events on the southern branch fault were 14,660–9,300 BC (ES1), 9,270–7,560 BC (ES2), 600–640 AD (ES3), 740–1,440 AD (ES4), and 1,650–1,900 AD (ES5). The paleoseismic results indicate that all branch faults of the Leibo fault zone are Holocene active faults.

By comparing the occurrence times of paleoseismic events on each branch fault, it is determined that the Leibo fault zone has experienced at least 10 surface-rupturing paleoseismic events since the Late Pleistocene. The corresponding age ranges are 21,190–20,590 BC (E1), 14,600–9,300 BC (E2), 12,090–11,820 BC (E3), 9,270–7,560 BC (E4), 7,400–6,320 BC (E5), 5,690–2,620 BC (E6), 2,220 BC–170 AD (E7), 600–640 AD (E8), 740–1,440 AD (E9), and 1,650–1,900 AD (E10). The paleoseismic history of the Leibo fault zone reveals that the strong seismicities of the three branch faults exhibit significant spatial independence and temporal clustering, indicating that the branch faults of the Leibo fault zone are independent seismogenic structures.

(3) Based on historical earthquake records and paleoseismic research results, this study proposes that the seismogenic structure of the 1216 Mahu M7 earthquake is the southern branch of the Leibo fault. Additionally, the Leibo fault likely participated in the rupture of the 1935–1936 Mabian M6¾ earthquake swarm.

(4) By collecting and analyzing the magnitudes of strike-slip earthquake events that generated surface ruptures in western China since 1920, it is inferred that the lower limit of the magnitudes of paleoseismic events revealed on the Leibo fault zone is 6.5. Furthermore, based on the fault length and empirical relationship, it is estimated that the Leibo fault has the capability to generate earthquakes with magnitudes of 7.0 or higher.

How to cite: Sun, H.: Late Quaternary Strong Earthquake History of the Leibo Fault on the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21381, 2026.

EGU26-21777 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

Structural controls on normal fault synchronization and simultaneous earthquake clustering 

Francesco Iezzi, Sgambato Claudia, Gerald Roberts, Zoe Mildon, Jenni Robertson, Joanna Faure Walker, ioannis Papanikolaou, Alessandro Maria Michetti, Sam Mitchell, Richard Shanks, Richard Phillips, Kenneth McCaffrey, and Eutizio Vittori

Slip-rate variations over multiple seismic cycles play a fundamental role in controlling the behaviour of active fault systems, as they are linked to spatio-temporal earthquake clustering and can influence the recurrence patterns of adjacent faults. However, processes that produce slip-rate fluctuations are yet to be fully defined. Despite their importance, the physical mechanisms responsible for such slip-rate fluctuations remain only partially understood. In this study, we investigate whether interactions between neighbouring along-strike brittle faults and their underlying viscous shear zones can generate slip-rate variability associated with synchronous earthquake clustering and fault system synchronization. We focus on nine normal faults and related shear zones within the Central Apennines fault system (Italy), arranged in six along-strike fault pairs characterized by different fault spacings and strike geometries. We integrate cosmogenic 36Cl dating of tectonically exhumed fault scarps with numerical modelling of differential stress transfer between interacting fault–shear-zone pairs. The results identify a mechanism capable of producing simultaneous earthquake clusters, driven by the synchronization of high driving stresses within the viscous shear zones beneath the brittle faults. This behaviour is strongly modulated by along-strike fault spacing and strike variations. In settings with closely spaced fault pairs and limited strike variations, earthquake clusters induce positive differential stress variations on neighbouring shear-zones of sufficient magnitude to induce positive slip-rate variations on their overlying brittle faults. This produces positive feedback mechanism that sustains the occurrence of earthquake clusters that will continue to positively load the neighbouring shear zones. These findings provide new insights into fault system dynamics across multiple timescales and have important implications for seismic hazard evaluation.

How to cite: Iezzi, F., Claudia, S., Roberts, G., Mildon, Z., Robertson, J., Faure Walker, J., Papanikolaou, I., Michetti, A. M., Mitchell, S., Shanks, R., Phillips, R., McCaffrey, K., and Vittori, E.: Structural controls on normal fault synchronization and simultaneous earthquake clustering, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21777, 2026.

EGU26-22278 | ECS | Orals | TS3.2

One Big Earthquake or Many? Fault Segmentation in the Eastern Precordillera, western Argentina 

Shreya Arora, Drew Cochran, Erik Janson, Gustavo Federico Ortiz, Jeremy Rimando, Nathan Brown, Melina Villalobos, Raul Gomez, and Yann Klinger

Why do some earthquakes repeatedly rupture discrete fault segments, while others rupture entire

faults? Answering this remains fundamental to improving seismic hazard analysis and, in turn, to

hazard preparedness and mitigation efforts. Over the past two decades, several mechanisms for

rupture termination and propagation have been proposed, including variation in geometric,

structural, and geologic characteristics of faults (Aki, 1979; King and Nabelek, 1985). In this study

we investigated the Eastern Precordillera (EPC) of the Andes Mountain in Argentina which is

classified into three segments: Villicum, Las Tapias, and Zonda–Pedernal (Siame et al., 2002) to

determine whether the historical surface ruptures associated with major earthquakes crossed the

segment boundaries, or whether rupture propagation was arrested by structural asperities

indicating an asperity-controlled behavior. To address this, we conducted a new paleoseismic

investigation at this site to complement and integrated with the preexisting dataset to evaluate the

extent of past surface ruptures in relation to fault geometry and structural segmentation. We have

complied earthquake timing of six earthquakes. Preliminary results suggest that, of the six

identified events, only one earthquake appears to have ruptured across an ~18 km-long segment

gap, including a ~4 km stepover and notable lithologic variation evidence consistent with a multi-

segment rupture event.

How to cite: Arora, S., Cochran, D., Janson, E., Ortiz, G. F., Rimando, J., Brown, N., Villalobos, M., Gomez, R., and Klinger, Y.: One Big Earthquake or Many? Fault Segmentation in the Eastern Precordillera, western Argentina, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22278, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22278, 2026.

EGU26-23007 | Posters on site | TS3.2

Interseismic Slip Rates of the Sındırgı Fault Forecast Extensional Kinematics During the 2025 M6+ Earthquakes 

Sevil Cansu Yavuz, Rahmi Nurhan Çelik, and Fatih Bulut

We investigated the geometry and the kinematics of the Sındırgı fault, which was activated during the two M6+ earthquakes (10.08.2025 and 27.10.2025) and their aftershocks. We analyzed all available seismographs from KOERI (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) and AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Authority) to identify fault geometry, earthquake locations, and focal mechanisms. We analyzed P-wave initial polarities and arrival times of a total of 43 M4+ earthquakes including two mainshocks (waveforms from KOERI and AFAD). Fault plane solutions as well as the accurate hypocenter locations indicate that the majority of the mainshocks and the aftershocks activated a south dipping fault. The results indicate an average strike of 110 ± 5.6°, a dip of 61.6 ± 4.4°, and rake a rake -124.6 ± 2.3°. Additionally, we investigated inter-seismic slip rates using 2D dislocation model analyzing the GNSS velocity field. We transformed the most recent velocity field into Anatolian-fixed reference frame. We decomposed GNSS velocities into fault-parallel and fault-perpendicular components and applied 2D arctan curve fitting to simultaneously determine the slip rates and the fault locking depths. Bootstrap error analysis was performed (1σ) to assess error bounds. The lateral motion is nearly negligibly small; however, fault-perpendicular velocities indicate the extension along the Sındırgı fault at 2.34 ± 0.69 mm/y slip rate. Inter-seismic slip rates suggest a rake of -95.2°, a nearly pure normal fault, which is consistent with average mainshock-aftershock rakes. In this context, GNSS-derived interseismic slip rates are capable of forecasting the extensional kinematics of the Sındırgı fault that generated two predominantly normal-faulting M 6+ earthquakes in 2025.

How to cite: Yavuz, S. C., Çelik, R. N., and Bulut, F.: Interseismic Slip Rates of the Sındırgı Fault Forecast Extensional Kinematics During the 2025 M6+ Earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-23007, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-23007, 2026.

On February 6, 2023, two significant earthquakes (MW 7.8 and MW 7.6) impacted the Kahramanmaras region, rupturing 340 km of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) and 150 km of the Cardak Fault (CF). To investigate the relationship between pre-event fault coupling and coseismic slip, a three-dimensional kinematic model comprising 38 blocks was developed, incorporating mesh-based representations of the EAF and CF. The model utilizes approximately 50,000 InSAR velocities and represents slip rates using distance-weighted eigenmodes. Coupling is estimated through bounded quadratic programming. Pearson and Procrustes analyses are employed to compare pre-event coupling with observed coseismic slip. Along the western, approximately 75% of the EAF rupture, correlation is higher than in the easternmost 25% (east of the Surgu fault at 38.2 degrees longitude). Alignment tests indicate that the offsets required to maximize correlation vary along the fault, suggesting imperfect alignment of kinematic model patterns. Consequently, the actual correlation between coseismic slip and interseismic coupling remains equivocal.

How to cite: Carrero Mustelier, E. and Meade, B.: Spatial relations between pre-event interseismic fault coupling and coseismic fault slip associated with the 2023 Turkey-Syria Earthquake sequence., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-220, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-220, 2026.

A major open question in earthquake science is how crustal deformation is partitioned between elastic strain accumulation on known faults and distributed deformation in the surrounding crust throughout the earthquake cycle. This distinction is critical for seismic hazard assessment but remains difficult to resolve because surface deformation reflects contributions from both sources. Here, we implement a framework that jointly estimates slip deficit rates on three dimensional faults and distributed moment rate sources in the crust, providing internally consistent estimates of their relative contributions and posterior uncertainties. Applying this approach across the western United States, eastern Mediterranean, Tibet, and New Zealand reveals a systematic dependence of deformation partitioning on fault system complexity. Mature, localized fault systems, including the Main Himalayan Thrust, San Andreas, North Anatolian, and Alpine faults, accommodate 70 to 90 percent of deformation between earthquakes on faults. In contrast, immature or diffuse systems, such as the Basin and Range, Tibetan Plateau, Intermountain Seismic Belt, western Anatolia, and northern New Zealand, accommodate only 30 to 60 percent on faults, with the remainder distributed off-fault. These results demonstrate that off-fault deformation is a fundamental component of geodetic strain rates, with its relative contribution governed by fault system complexity. Moreover, in light of recent evidence that cumulative fault-length distributions follow a power law with an exponent near -2 (Zou and Fialko, 2024), our results suggest that a significant fraction of off-fault deformation may be accommodated aseismically throughout the earthquake cycle.

How to cite: Castro-Perdomo, N. and Johnson, K.: Global evidence that fault complexity controls on-fault and off-fault deformation partitioning throughout the earthquake cycle, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-259, 2026.

EGU26-759 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.6

Rheological Segmentation and Distributed Strain Partitioning in the Korean Peninsula Revealed by Fusion of InSAR–GNSS Velocity Fields 

Raj Sunil Kandregula, Sang-Yeol Bae, Jun-Yeop Kim, and Young-Seog Kim

The Korean Peninsula provides a unique natural setting to investigate intraplate deformation driven by far-field Pacific and Philippine Sea plate forces. Despite its location along the nominally stable interior of the Eurasian Plate, the region hosts frequent seismicity and historical Mw ≥ 5.5 earthquakes, yet the spatial distribution and mechanisms of strain accumulation remain insufficiently constrained. Here we fuse multi-frame Sentinel-1 InSAR time series with dense GNSS observations (2017–2024) to produce a peninsula-scale, three-component surface deformation field. After rigorous frame corrections, GPS filtering, and removal of the Eurasia-fixed plate motion, the resulting velocity field reveals a sharp rheological and kinematic segmentation across the peninsula.

The fused horizontal field identifies a rigid western domain—the Gyeonggi Massif and western Okcheon Belt—with negligible residual motion, contrasted by a kinematically mobile southeastern domain (Yeongnam Massif and Gyeongsang Basin) showing coherent SW–WSW residual flow up to 3.5 mm/yr. Independent InSAR-derived vertical and E–W velocity components exhibit strong lateral gradients that correspond with mapped active faults and clusters of seismicity. Strain-tensor inversion indicates peninsula-wide ENE–WSW shortening, locally partitioned into dextral transpression along the Yangsan Fault System and distributed shear throughout the southeastern crust.

Integrating these geodetic observations with published crustal seismic-velocity models, we propose a rheology-driven strain-partitioning mechanism. The western peninsula is underlain by strong, felsic, low-Vp/Vs crust and acts as a continental backstop, whereas the southeastern block comprises weaker, mafic and magmatically modified crust that responds more readily to far-field compression. This lithospheric contrast explains the concentration of deformation, shear localization, and seismic strain accumulation within the southeastern block.

Our findings demonstrate that inherited crustal rheology—not block rotation alone—controls present-day intraplate deformation in Korea, offering a unified framework for understanding its seismicity distribution and improving seismic hazard assessment in slowly deforming continental interiors.

How to cite: Kandregula, R. S., Bae, S.-Y., Kim, J.-Y., and Kim, Y.-S.: Rheological Segmentation and Distributed Strain Partitioning in the Korean Peninsula Revealed by Fusion of InSAR–GNSS Velocity Fields, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-759, 2026.

EGU26-2883 | Orals | TS3.6

Seafloor deformation in Taiwan revealed by GNSS-acoustic measurements  

Ya-Ju Hsu, Hsin Tung, Chi-Hsien Tang, Horng-Yue Chen, Ryoya Ikuta, and Motoyuki Kido

Taiwan sits at the junction of the Ryukyu and Manila subduction zones, where a rapid convergence rate of ~90 mm/yr drives intense seismic and tsunami hazards. However, land-based geodetic networks provide insufficient resolution for monitoring offshore deformation. To address this, we have developed and deployed GNSS-Acoustic (GNSS-A) systems to monitor seafloor deformation. A total of six GNSS-A sites were established along the southern Ryukyu subduction zone near Taiwan, with three additional sites located near the northern tip of the Manila Trench. GNSS-A data in the southernmost Ryukyu margin reveal an eastward increase in convergence rate, from 92 mm/yr offshore Hualien to 123 mm/yr near the Gagua Ridge, indicating the potential to generate Mw 7.5–8.4 earthquakes. The 2024 Mw 7.3 Hualien earthquake ruptured a deep 70° east-dipping Longitudinal Valley fault and a 35° west-dipping offshore fault. At seafloor site ORY2, ~ 40 km east of the epicenter, we recorded coseismic displacements of 9.1±12.1 cm eastward and 12.3±11.4 cm southward motions, along with 52.9±13.5 cm uplift. These observations are consistent with coseismic dislocation modeling results. Additionally, multiple slow slip events on fault systems in eastern Taiwan appear to have preceded the 2024 Mw 7.3 Hualien earthquake.

Offshore southern Taiwan, geodetic data reveal N–S-oriented extension in the Tainan Basin and NE–SW extension between the northern Manila Trench and the North Luzon Trough. These strain axes align with the focal mechanisms of the 1994 M 6.5 and 2006 Mw 7.0 earthquakes. Notably, deformation and seismicity patterns shift distinctly across the Eurasian Plate–South China Sea continent–ocean boundary near 20°N. Together, these integrated observations provide new insights into fault segmentation, strain accumulation, and regional seismic and tsunami hazards.

How to cite: Hsu, Y.-J., Tung, H., Tang, C.-H., Chen, H.-Y., Ikuta, R., and Kido, M.: Seafloor deformation in Taiwan revealed by GNSS-acoustic measurements , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2883, 2026.

EGU26-3318 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.6

High-Definition Strain-Rate Mapping of Japan from a Public–Private GNSS Network  

Miku Ohtate, Yusaku Ohta, Mako Ohzono, and Hiroaki Takahashi

The interseismic crustal strain-rate distribution in Japan has traditionally been estimated from coordinate time series derived from GEONET, the nationwide GNSS network operated by the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI). Beginning with Sagiya et al. (2000) and subsequent studies, these analyses have revealed the existence and broad extent of inland strain-concentration zones. However, because the average spacing of GEONET stations is ~20 km, its ability to resolve highly localized deformation, such as strain accumulation associated with individual active faults, has remained limited.

In contrast, SoftBank Corp. (hereafter SoftBank), a Japanese telecommunications company, has operated an independent nationwide GNSS network of more than 3,300 stations since late 2019, nearly three times the number of GEONET stations. The suitability of SoftBank stations for crustal deformation monitoring was demonstrated by Ohta and Ohzono (2022).

By integrating GNSS data from GEONET and SoftBank, we constructed an unprecedentedly dense observation network and estimated interseismic crustal strain-rate fields at substantially higher spatial resolution. The integrated network achieves an effective station spacing of <10 km, enabling us to resolve localized strain features that are not captured by GEONET-only solutions. For example, our results suggest that the Niigata–Kobe Tectonic Zone, previously interpreted as a continuous belt, may instead comprise a series of smaller, spatially localized strain-concentration zones.

Moreover, the improved resolution enables a more direct comparison between the strain-rate field and the spatial distribution of earthquake epicenters. We find that seismicity tends to be more active along the margins of strain-concentration zones rather than directly above their cores. This pattern is consistent with the interpretation of Hasegawa et al. (2004), which proposes that stress preferentially accumulates at boundaries between regions undergoing rapid inelastic deformation and surrounding regions deforming more slowly, thereby promoting earthquake occurrence along the edges of strain-concentration zones. 

Acknowledgments: The SoftBank's GNSS observation data used in this study was provided by SoftBank Corp. and ALES Corp. through the framework of the "Consortium to utilize the SoftBank original reference sites for Earth and Space Science".

How to cite: Ohtate, M., Ohta, Y., Ohzono, M., and Takahashi, H.: High-Definition Strain-Rate Mapping of Japan from a Public–Private GNSS Network , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3318, 2026.

EGU26-3716 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.6 | Highlight

Hydrologically induced crustal stress changes and their impact on seismicity in Greece 

Batakrushna Senapati and Konstantinos Konstantinou

The response of seismic activity to external stress perturbations provides important insights into the physical processes governing earthquake triggering, nucleation, and rupture. Among various perturbations, annual hydrological loading is ubiquitous and offers an opportunity for investigating earthquake triggering processes. However, the physical mechanisms governing seismic responses to such periodic stress variations are not yet fully understood. Here, we explore the hydrologically induced crustal stress changes and their impact on seismicity in Greece by integrating a ~14-year earthquake catalog, GNSS time series, and GRACE-derived hydrological loading. We find that a significant variation in the rate of seismicity in Mainland Greece at annual time scale coincide with hydrological loading. The surface displacements predicted from GRACE-based loading models show good agreement with observed GNSS displacements, confirming that hydrological mass redistribution produces geodetically detectable crustal deformation. Our results demonstrate that hydrological loading produces geodetically observable surface deformation and induces stress perturbations that, although small in amplitude, modulate seismicity rates in Mainland Greece. We further find that historical earthquakes from 424 BC to 1903 (Mw > 5) exhibit a seasonal pattern, with peak seismicity occurring during the May–June period, consistent with the present-day seismicity modulation. The observed correlation among surface deformation, hydrological loading, and seismicity rates indicates that elastic stresses induced by hydrological loading play a key role in modulating seismic activity in Mainland Greece.

How to cite: Senapati, B. and Konstantinou, K.: Hydrologically induced crustal stress changes and their impact on seismicity in Greece, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3716, 2026.

The 2025 MW 7.0 Dingri earthquake in southern Tibet provides a unique opportunity to investigate normal-faulting mechanisms within an active rift zone. By integrating geodetic (GNSS and InSAR) and field observations, we investigate the event’s interseismic and coseismic deformation and quantify the impact of the 2015 MW 7.8 Gorkha earthquake. Our principal findings are: (1) The epicentral extensional strain rate is (1.5 ± 0.2) × 10-8/yr, notably lower than in the northern aftershock zone, indicating strain partitioning. (2) The coseismic slip model reveals a graben structure formed by two near N-S striking normal faults, with a maximum slip of 4.1 m and a seismic moment of 4.2×1019 N·m. (3) Field measurements confirm a segmented surface rupture, where the central segment’s vertical slip (2.1–2.2 m) aligns precisely with the InSAR-derived Line-of-Sight deformation maximum (2.04 m), validating the geodetic model. (4) Critically, deformation analysis demonstrates that the 2015 Gorkha earthquake significantly promoted the rupture of the Dingri earthquake, potentially accelerating its seismic cycle by ~20 years. This event exemplifies rift propagation along the Shenzha-Dingjie system and offers crucial insights into post-seismic stress transfer, rift evolution, and deep crustal processes in southern Tibet.

How to cite: Guo, N.: Deformation Process and Mechanism of the 2025 Ms 6.8 Dingri Earthquake in Southern Tibet constrained by GNSS and InSAR, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4673, 2026.

EGU26-4678 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.6

Evidence of strong plate coupling in the Uttarakhand Himalayas: Constraints from GNSS and ALOS-2 InSAR observations 

Dibyashakti Panda, Mridul Yadav, Eric O. Lindsey, and G Srinivasa Rao

Long-term convergence across the Himalayan megathrust continues to pose a significant seismic threat to the adjoining Indo-Gangetic plains, one of the world’s most densely populated regions. Parts of the megathrust have not ruptured in the last 200 years and have been identified as seismic gaps. The Uttarakhand Himalayas are considered part of the central Himalayan seismic gap, and differing opinions exist on the strength of interseismic plate coupling along the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). This has led to varying assessments of the associated seismic hazards. The present study focuses on the kinematic status of the MHT in the Uttarakhand Himalaya using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data, along with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) satellite imagery, to estimate the elastic strain accumulation. GNSS-derived horizontal displacements indicate a slip deficit of ~18 mm/year, with an MHT that is locked up to a width of ~115 km. ALOS-2 InSAR imagery shows interseismic vertical deformation with a peak uplift of 4–6 mm/year. Consideration of an Elastic Subducting Plate Model (ESPM) predicts well both horizontal and vertical displacement without introducing any artifacts. Both the GNSS and InSAR measurements indicate that the megathrust across the Uttarakhand Himalaya is highly coupled, and the accumulated strain energy is equivalent to one Mw 8.1 megathrust earthquake every 100 years.

How to cite: Panda, D., Yadav, M., Lindsey, E. O., and Rao, G. S.: Evidence of strong plate coupling in the Uttarakhand Himalayas: Constraints from GNSS and ALOS-2 InSAR observations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4678, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4678, 2026.

EGU26-5297 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.6

Influence of temperature-controlled non-linear viscoelastic rheology on interseismic surface deformation signals in subduction zones. 

Lucas Crisosto, Carlos Peña, Oliver Heidbach, David Schmidt, Andrés Tassara, and Fabrice Cotton

The earthquake seismic cycle consists of the gradual accumulation of elastic energy at plate boundaries during the interseismic period, followed by its release mainly during the coseismic and postseismic stages. Therefore, for the evaluation of the seismic moment accumulate rate along the plate boundary, we need to quantify the processes and rheologies that control the interseismic surface deformation that is observed by GNSS stations. 

Recent studies have shown that during the late interseismic phase, the GNSS-observed surface velocities can be explained by a combination of aseismic fault slip and viscoelastic deformation in the upper mantle. These works also demonstrate that the vertical GNSS component is particularly crucial for distinguishing between different rheological processes acting at depth. However, most of these deformation studies neglect the thermal structure of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system and its impact on the viscoelastic deformation processes in the upper mantle, and especially within the lower continental crust.

To explore the impact of the temperature field, we investigate four subduction zones with contrasting incoming plate geometries, ages, dips, and convergence rates. We use 2D interseismic deformation models  based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) with temperature-controlled viscoelastic power-law rheology that represent the Nankai, Japan, Cascadia, and northern Chile subduction systems.  We systematically compare linear and nonlinear rheological formulations across distinct thermal and tectonic environments to assess their impact on the interseismic deformation process. Our preliminary results indicate that thermally-controlled nonlinear viscoelasticity can alter both the magnitude and spatial distribution of vertical interseismic deformation. In regions with higher temperatures in the continental mantle (e.g., Nankai, Japan, and northern Chile) the nonlinear rheology can produce uplift and subsidence patterns that diverge from those predicted by linear viscoelastic models. This highlights the sensitivity of vertical deformation to the chosen rheological formulation and suggests that models with linear viscoelastic rheology may not always be sufficient to represent the details of the processes controlling the interseismic deformation signal. However, when the interseismic deformation signal is small (e.g. Cascadia), the difference between linear and non-linear rheology is too little to be resolved within the GNSS data uncertainty. 

Furthermore, our models predict differences in vertical surface deformation of ~20% near the trench and exceeding 100% in the far-field back-arc region between linear and nonlinear viscoelastic models, regions where GNSS data are generally absent or where there is poor coverage. Here seafloor geodetic observations from acoustic-GNSS and pressure gauges are especially valuable, as they provide direct constraints on near-trench deformation that cannot be resolved from land-based networks alone.

In this context, our models can help in identifying regions where nonlinear rheological effects are most likely to be observable and therefore offer guidance for the strategic deployment of offshore geodetic instrumentation to better resolve interseismic deformation processes in subduction zones.

How to cite: Crisosto, L., Peña, C., Heidbach, O., Schmidt, D., Tassara, A., and Cotton, F.: Influence of temperature-controlled non-linear viscoelastic rheology on interseismic surface deformation signals in subduction zones., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5297, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5297, 2026.

The lack of dense geodetic data near the trench of most subduction zones has made it challenging to accurately infer the pattern of interseismic deformation and, consequently, seismic and tsunami hazard estimates. Most kinematic coupling models ignore the effects of realistic boundary conditions and material properties. Here, we develop a 2D finite element model that incorporates realistic slab thickness and variable shear modulus values to quantify potential biases in these models.

We show that models that do not incorporate a finite slab thickness and variable material properties potentially under-estimate uncertainty about shallow creep rates compared to a more realistic model, while exhibiting a bias toward shallower locking, especially on megathrusts that lack offshore geodetic data. This observation potentially explains a reported gap between the inferred down-dip edge of kinematic locking and the location of episodic tremor and slip in Cascadia. These results highlight the importance of using realistic material properties when estimating the pattern of locking on megathrusts.

How to cite: Chong, J. H. and Lindsey, E.: Improving geodetic constraints on subduction zone coupling using accurate physics-based models with variable elastic properties , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5733, 2026.

EGU26-6624 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.6

Stress regimes analysis in Northeast India, Indo-Burma Ranges: Stress field implications based on Moment Tensor solution data 

Ravi Ranjan, Mohd Shahabuddin, and William Kumar Mohanty

The Northeast India plate boundary is a globally significant convergence zone where the Indian, Eurasian, and Burmese plates interact. This area comprises two tectonic regions: the Himalayan collision zone in the north and the Indo-Burma Ranges to the east. Numerous major earthquakes have struck this region, such as the 1897 Shillong event (Mw ≥ 8.1) and 1950 Assam-Tibet earthquake (Mw ≥ 8.6). Despite its high seismicity, a comprehensive depth resolved stress analysis, across the area remains poorly defined. This research fills the gap by performing seismotectonic stress analysis using 377 focal mechanism solutions (Mw ≥ 4.0) between 1950 and 2025 gathered from global earthquake catalogues and major published sources. To identify lateral and vertical variations in the stress field, the study region (85°E-98°E, 13°N-31°N) was spatially subdivided into 21 seismotectonic zones based on seismicity clustering, focal depth distribution, slab geometry, and structural boundaries. The Hardebeck-Michael method is applied for linear stress tensor inversion, resolving fault plane uncertainty by rotational optimization and Mohr-Coulomb instability criteria. Iterative inversion was performed with Shape ratio (R)=0-1 and Friction coefficient (μ)=0.2-0.8, retaining only solutions where misfit angles are less than 45°, ensuring accurate determination of principal stress axes and Maximum horizontal compressive stress (SHmax) directions. The results indicate a N-S compressional stress regime extending from the Eastern Himalayas to the Bengal Basin aligning with the India-Eurasia convergence. This stress state is associated with major tectonic structures including the Main Central Thrust (MCT), the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT), the Dauki Fault, and Brahmaputra Fault. However, the Indo-Burma Ranges show strong depth-dependent stress heterogeneity. Shallow to intermediate depth earthquakes exhibit arc-perpendicular extension (ENE-WSW to ESE-WNW), interpreted as a response to slab pull and upward convex bending of the subducting Indian lithosphere. Deep focus events (>70 km) indicate slab parallel N-S compression, which shows lithospheric shortening within the descending plate rather than solely due to India-Eurasia collision. A separate NE-SW compressional regime appears in the northern Indo-Burma arc and Sagaing Fault region, indicating stress-strain partitioning between Indian, Burmese, and Sunda plates. The clockwise rotation of SHmax along the arc from NNE-SSW in the inner segment to ENE-WSW in the outer foreland supports a transition from dextral strike slip motion to arc-perpendicular shortening. In the Shillong Plateau and Assam Valley, the coexistence of N-S and E-W compression indicates eastward extrusion of a crustal block, consistent with geodetic measurements and borehole breakout results. The results indicate that the stress regime is influenced not only by India-Eurasia convergence, but also by slab geometry, crust-mantle interaction, and block extrusion processes. These insights will be helpful for seismic hazard assessment and tectonic modelling in one of the most seismically active complex convergent plate boundary zones.

How to cite: Ranjan, R., Shahabuddin, M., and Kumar Mohanty, W.: Stress regimes analysis in Northeast India, Indo-Burma Ranges: Stress field implications based on Moment Tensor solution data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6624, 2026.

EGU26-8420 | Orals | TS3.6

Seeing Japan's Crust in Finer Detail with Ultra-Dense GNSS Networks 

Yusaku Ohta and Miku Ohtate

Monitoring Earth’s surface deformation is fundamental to many areas of geoscience. To support such monitoring, GNSS networks have been deployed worldwide at national and regional scales. In Japan, the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan operates the GNSS Earth Observation Network System (GEONET), a continuous nationwide array that has underpinned a wide range of Earth-science advances. However, the typical spacing of GEONET stations can limit our ability to resolve deformation signals with short spatial wavelengths.

Over the last decade, Japanese mobile network operators have also constructed their own GNSS reference-site networks, primarily to improve positioning services. Ohta and Ohzono (Earth, Planets and Space, 2022) evaluated the SoftBank Corp. network from the perspective of crustal deformation monitoring. With more than 3,300 sites, about 2.5 times as many as GEONET, the network offers an exceptionally dense sampling of the Japanese islands. Their study showed that, with appropriate quality control, private-sector GNSS data can provide robust information for geodetic applications.

Building on these efforts, the Graduate School of Science at Tohoku University, together with SoftBank Corp. and ALES Corporation, launched an academic–industry consortium, “the Consortium to Utilize the SoftBank Original Reference Sites for Earth and Space Science”, to facilitate geoscientific use of SoftBank GNSS observations. Results obtained through this framework demonstrate the value of ultra-dense GNSS coverage for capturing diverse deformation processes, including aseismic deformation in the Noto Peninsula (Nishimura et al., Sci. Rep., 2023), coseismic slip associated with the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake (Yamada et al., EPS, 2025), and afterslip off western Sado Island (Ohtate et al., EPS, 2025). The same dense coverage is also enabling unusually detailed characterization of interseismic strain accumulation across Japan (Ohtate et al., in revision). In addition, a comprehensive assessment of the accuracy of the underlying coordinate time series has been conducted, demonstrating that the quality of the daily coordinates from GEONET and the SoftBank network is nearly equivalent (Ohta and Ohtate, EPS, 2026).

In this presentation, we summarize these recent outcomes and discuss how ultra-dense GNSS networks can expand the scope and resolution of crustal deformation research.

Acknowledgments: The SoftBank's GNSS observation data used in this study was provided by SoftBank Corp. and ALES Corp. through the framework of the "Consortium to utilize the SoftBank original reference sites for Earth and Space Science".

How to cite: Ohta, Y. and Ohtate, M.: Seeing Japan's Crust in Finer Detail with Ultra-Dense GNSS Networks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8420, 2026.

EGU26-8897 | Posters on site | TS3.6

Assessing small-scale Surface Deformation zones in Europe 

Benjamin Männel and Cornelis Kreemer

Dense GNSS station networks and derived highly accurate 3D velocities offer the potential to image small-scale surface deformation fields. The robustness and sensitivity of the applied algorithm are crucial for the reliable detection of local and potentially small horizontal or vertical deformation zones. Based on a multivariate median estimation of strain rate and plate rotation, the imaging approach R3DI (Robust 3D Imaging) enables robust estimation, with the achieved spatial resolution dependent solely on the density of the station network and the local strain rate.

In this contribution we will discuss the impact of significance tests applied to the second invariant of the strain rate tensor and to the dilatational rate. The achievable spatial resolutions will be tested using synthetic deformation patterns (checkerboard tests) and real GNSS velocity fields in Europe. In a second step, the optimal grid spacing as trade-off between surface deformation recovery, density of the GNSS station network, and computational costs will be investigated.

How to cite: Männel, B. and Kreemer, C.: Assessing small-scale Surface Deformation zones in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8897, 2026.

EGU26-11881 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.6

Tectonic stress estimates for Europe through Bayesian inversion of GNSS velocities 

Renato Gutierrez Escobar and Rob Govers

Natural stress magnitudes are a basis for informed decisions on the safety of underground activities, but they are incompletely constrained. As natural stresses are the consequence of tectonic processes, a physically consistent force model of the entire Eurasian lithosphere is used to constrain the intraplate stress field based on observed GNSS velocities.

We consider forces due to lateral gradients in gravitational potential energy, tractions by bounding plates, and mantle convective tractions. Our thin sheet model includes variable lithosphere thickness, major fault zones and viscoelastic geological provinces. We use a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to sample fault resistive shear tractions, slip rates, viscosities and magnitudes of driving and resistive tractions.

Our median model fits observed velocities well in many regions. Trench suction along the Ryukyu and Hellenic forearcs in conjunction with resistive shear tractions on the Makran, Himalayan, Sumatra, Philippine and Nankai megathrust reproduce the complex observed velocities in these regions. However, significant misfit remains in other regions. Fault slip rakes and rates agree with observations along most fault zones. The satisfactory fit in Western Europe can be attributed to plate boundary tractions from Nubia convergence.

Some model parameters are well constrained. Low resistive shear traction rates (<3 MPa/m) are obtained for faults involved in the clockwise velocity rotation of the East Himalayan Syntaxis (Xianshuihe, Kunlun and Sagain). Higher resistive shear traction rates (>8 MPa/m) are estimated for faults that accommodate the India-Eurasia convergence (Karakorum, Main Pamir, and Altyn Tagh).

The median model matches maximum horizontal compressive directions from the World Stress Map fairly well. It shows high maximum shear stresses (50 MPa) in the Pannonian-Aegean-Anatolian region and Fennoscandian shield. Contrasting lithospheric thicknesses between the East European Craton and western Europe result in a stress contrast. Low maximum shear stresses (10 MPa) are estimated in the Pyrenees region, Ligurian-Provençal basin, Northern Apennines, Armoriscan massif, and the Massif central.

How to cite: Gutierrez Escobar, R. and Govers, R.: Tectonic stress estimates for Europe through Bayesian inversion of GNSS velocities, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11881, 2026.

EGU26-12465 | ECS | Orals | TS3.6

Bayesian inference of interseismic coupling along the East Anatolian Fault using geodetic data 

Emile Denise, Romain Jolivet, Volkan Özbey, Paul Dérand, and Angélique Marck

Historically, the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) has regularly produced MW ~ 7 earthquakes, but has also occasionally ruptured in MW ~ 8 events. After a century without any significant earthquake, the MW 6.8 Elazığ (24 Jan. 2020), MW 7.8 and MW 7.6 Kahramanmaraş (6 Feb. 2023) events occured in a new sequence of major earthquakes. Understanding the recurrence pattern of earthquakes in this complex fault network, as well as assessing seismic hazard and strain accumulation in the region, requires careful estimation of the spatial distribution of interseismic coupling (defined as the degree of locking of a fault between earthquakes) along the EAFZ. Previous attempts focus on restricted segments of the fault system or did not include all available geodetic data.

We use GNSS and InSAR interseismic velocity fields to derive a map of interseismic coupling along the EAFZ applying the linear elastic block modelling framework. The GNSS velocity field is a combination of previous compilations (Ergintav et al., 2023; Özbey et al., 2024). We obtained InSAR velocities by postprocessing time series computed by the FLATSIM initiative (Thollard et al., 2021), to remove coseismic signals and seasonal oscillations. We use a Bayesian approach to invert for interseismic coupling to carefully quantify associated uncertainties and assess the minimum complexity required for the block model.

We find that eastern Anatolia mostly behaves as a unique block with slip rates standing out of uncertainties for a limited number of identified active faults. The portions of the EAFZ that ruptured during the Elazığ and Kahramanmaraş earthquakes are strongly locked during the interseismic period, as expected. The inferred locked asperities are also consistent with evidence for large historical earthquakes. To the north, the EAFZ is mostly weakly coupled and exhibits shallow creeping segments that delimit the northern boundaries of the 2020 and 2023 ruptures. As creeping segments may be related to the initiation and termination of seismic ruptures, it is crucial to estimate these sections precisely to fully assess the earthquake potential of a fault.

How to cite: Denise, E., Jolivet, R., Özbey, V., Dérand, P., and Marck, A.: Bayesian inference of interseismic coupling along the East Anatolian Fault using geodetic data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12465, 2026.

EGU26-13054 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.6

Block Kinematics and Interseismic Coupling of Major Subduction Systems in the Central Mediterranean 

Riccardo Nucci, Enrico Serpelloni, and Alberto Armigliato

The Mediterranean is a broad continental deformation zone at the junction between the African and Eurasian plates, where plate convergence is accommodated by distributed faulting, subduction, and transform systems associated with significant seismic and tsunami hazard. Despite the rapid densification of GNSS networks, how plate motion is partitioned into elastic strain accumulation versus aseismic deformation across this region remains unresolved or largely debated, particularly along offshore subduction interfaces, such as the Hellenic and Calabrian subduction zones, and the Dinarides-Albanides thrust front. We present a new regional kinematic block model constrained by an integrated horizontal GNSS velocity field obtained by merging multiple solutions to achieve dense, homogeneous spatial coverage. We implement three-dimensional geometries of the subduction interfaces and thrust systems within a unified block-model framework, allowing surface velocities to be jointly inverted for rigid block rotations, fault slip rates, volcanic deformation, and interseismic coupling (IC), enabling a regional-scale assessment of where elastic strain accumulates along major plate-boundary structures. The model is more detailed in the southern Adriatic and Ionian domains and across the Calabrian and Aegean arcs, including the Albanides–Dinarides margin. We present a first attempt toward a synoptic mapping of interseismic coupling for the Central Mediterranean, providing new insights into strain buildup and associated seismogenic potential of the involved structures. Low but non-zero coupling is inferred along the Hellenic subduction zone beneath Crete, while higher coupling patches are identified along the Cephalonia Transform Fault, and locally along the Albanian and Montenegrin coasts. These regions represent zones of enhanced elastic strain accumulation with implications for future earthquake and tsunami potential. IC along the Calabrian subduction zone is also investigated; however, its spatial distribution remains weakly constrained due to the lack of offshore geodetic observations. Our results highlight the critical role of the poorly defined Nubia–Apulia plate boundary in controlling block kinematics, strain partitioning, and coupling patterns in the Calabrian subduction zone.

How to cite: Nucci, R., Serpelloni, E., and Armigliato, A.: Block Kinematics and Interseismic Coupling of Major Subduction Systems in the Central Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13054, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13054, 2026.

EGU26-13446 | ECS | Orals | TS3.6

Extension of Tian Shan along a nascent shear zone 

Qi Ou, John Elliott, Yasser Maghsoudi, Chris Rollins, Milan Lazecky, and Tim Wright

Our understanding of the dynamics of mountain belt growth is hampered by the lack of high-resolution kinematic observations spanning entire orogenic belts. This is particularly the case for the structurally complex and nascent Tian Shan plateau. Here we use 8 years of Sentinel-1 data across 2 million square kilometres of the Tian Shan to show that the mountain range is extending along its strike, predominantly by shearing along a newly identified northeast-trending distributed shear zone. This zone is conjugate to the range strike but aligned with fast axes of shear-wave splitting measurements and a band of strike-slip earthquakes. We interpret this broad zone of shear be resulting from the rotation of the indenting Tarim Basin, facilitated by the conjugate strike-slip components on numerous basin-bounding faults with favourable strikes. The present-day vertical deformation of Tian Shan results from a mix of tectonic, climatic, and anthropogenic forcings, with uplift of the highest peak facilitated by thrust along a south-dipping Nalati fault that could be promoted by deglaciation.

How to cite: Ou, Q., Elliott, J., Maghsoudi, Y., Rollins, C., Lazecky, M., and Wright, T.: Extension of Tian Shan along a nascent shear zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13446, 2026.

The Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) is a strongly coupled continental megathrust that accommodates India-Eurasia convergence and drives the largest seismic hazard across the Himalayan arc. Existing geodetic coupling models broadly agree that the shallow MHT is highly locked, but they make conflicting inferences about (i) the downdip extent and sharpness of the locking-creep transition and (ii) along-strike segmentation, differences that largely reflect assumed block kinematics, inversion regularization, and the frequent neglect of time-dependent lower-crustal and mantle deformation. Given these divergent inferences, key questions remain about which portions of the fault interface are truly locked and whether viscous flow beneath the Himalaya-southern Tibet systematically biases geodetic coupling estimates. We re-evaluate MHT interseismic coupling by inverting GNSS baseline length-change rates for the depths of the upper and lower locked boundaries, using a physically constrained, boundary-based inversion that permits non-stationary locking by gradual erosion of locked areas through creep-front propagation, represented by negative stressing rates (Johnson & Sherrill, 2026 in prep.). Using interseismic GNSS velocities from Lindsey et al. (2018) and a viscoelastic earthquake-cycle model, we invert for the locked-zone boundaries, spatially variable interseismic creep, and creep-front-driven stress-drop rates along the locked-zone edges. We couple this physics-regularized kinematic locking model to a viscoelastic earthquake-cycle framework to capture interseismic stress redistribution by Maxwell relaxation in the lower crust and upper mantle. Uncertainties and epistemic tradeoffs are quantified with Bayesian MCMC and a 20-model ensemble spanning published block-kinematic configurations and viscosity structures (10¹⁹-10²¹ Pa·s). Across the ensemble, coupling is consistently concentrated above mid-crustal ramp-flat transitions, with robust locking to ~15–20 km depth, most strongly between ~77° and 86°E, and limited evidence for significant locking below ~20 km. Lower viscosities favor shallower, narrower locked zones, whereas higher viscosities permit deeper and wider locking. The non-stationary creep-front models better reproduce observed baseline rates than a stationary locking model (reduced χ² ≈ 1.17 vs. 1.58) and predict peak creep rates near the downdip edge of locked asperities, where seismicity is concentrated. These results present a physically grounded interseismic coupling model with quantified uncertainties that refines Himalayan seismic moment budgets. The inferred locked zone accumulates moment at ~ 5-15*1019 N·m/yr, consistent with the long-term potential for an Mw>9 earthquake on a 1000-year recurrence interval, and delineates persistently locked segments, particularly in western Nepal, capable of hosting future great megathrust ruptures.

How to cite: Acharya, D., Johnson, K., and Sherrill, E.: Non-Stationary Locked-Boundary Inversions for the Main Himalayan Thrust: Creep-Front Propagation and Viscoelastic Stress Redistribution, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13954, 2026.

EGU26-14372 | Posters on site | TS3.6

Non-stationary Creep Modeling on the Northern California Fault Systems  

Kaj Johnson and Durga Acharya

Fault creep along Northern California strike-slip faults is widespread but strongly variable in space and time. This heterogeneity complicates seismic-hazard models that assume steady interseismic coupling derived from kinematically smoothed slip inversions. Commonly used steady-state, stress-controlled creep formulations (e.g., Johnson et al., 2022) assume stressing rate is either zero or positive and tend to favor gradual spatial creep rate variations and therefore do not easily represent abrupt locking-creep transitions. This is a problem for capturing abrupt changes in creep rate due to creep fronts intruding into the locked zone, generating locally negative stress-rate changes. Independent observations and physical arguments suggest that transitions from locked to creeping behavior can be sharp, for example, through progressive asperity erosion. Here, we apply the asperity-erosion, non-stationary asperity inversion framework of Johnson and Sherrill (2026) to jointly estimate interseismic creep rates and distributions of locked asperities on the central San Andreas, Hayward, and Maacama faults. We integrate GNSS velocities and surface creep rates from InSAR, creepmeter records, and alignment array measurements, following the observational dataset used by Johnson et al. (2022). Fault geometry is represented with triangulated dislocation surfaces in an elastic half-space and evaluated using a backslip formulation. Physics-regularized constraints on locking-stress evolution allow for creep fronts to erode locked regions through time. The models reproduce the observed along-strike variability in surface creep rates and fit the GNSS-derived velocities with residuals generally below 3 mm/yr. Compared with steady-state approaches, the non-stationary inversion resolves larger locked areas and quantifies their uncertainties, consistent with recent applications of similar physics-regularized frameworks in subduction and continental collision environments (Acharya et al., 2026, in prep.; Johnson & Sherrill, 2026, in prep.). Interseismic creep varies widely with depth along strike, reaching more than 30 mm/yr on actively creeping sections of the Central San Andreas faults. At the same time, we resolve discrete embedded eroding asperities that persist at depths of roughly 10-20 km on the Hayward and Central San Andreas faults. These asperities show high locking probabilities (>0.8) and host localized slip-deficit accumulation that is low across most creeping reaches but increases to about 20-30 mm/yr within locked patches and near segment transitions. On the Hayward Fault, our results indicate a persistent central low-slip patch accompanied by enhanced shallow creep to the north, consistent with mixed locked-creeping behavior. By explicitly mapping where and how slip deficit concentrates within dominantly creeping fault systems, this approach refines moment-deficit estimates relative to steady-state creep models. 

How to cite: Johnson, K. and Acharya, D.: Non-stationary Creep Modeling on the Northern California Fault Systems , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14372, 2026.

EGU26-14539 | ECS | Orals | TS3.6

Quantifying plate interface coupling in the Mexican subduction zone from InSAR and GNSS using Bayesian inversion methods 

Islam Touzout, Mathilde Radiguet, Erwan Pathier, Thea Ragon, Vladimir Kostoglodov, and Ekaterina Kazachkina

The Mexican subduction zone, characterized by intense tectonic activity, constitutes a natural laboratory for investigating the mechanisms controlling seismic-cycle dynamics. This margin has experienced both large, devastating earthquakes (e.g., Michoacán 1985 ; Tehuantepec 2017) and frequent episodes of slow slip. Quantifying interseismic coupling along the subduction interface is therefore essential to better understand the interaction between seismic and aseismic processes and to refine seismic hazard assessment models.

In this study, we establish an interseismic coupling map over nearly 1000 km of the Mexican subduction margin using six years of geodetic observations (2015–2022). Our analysis relies on the joint integration of GNSS velocities from 72 carefully selected stations and ten Sentinel-1 tracks (descending andascending) covering the subduction zone from Jalisco to Oaxaca. Velocity maps derived from FLATSIM (ForM@Ter LArge-scale multi-Temporal Sentinel-1 InterferoMetry) processing were corrected for coseismic offsets, cleaned of non-tectonic signals, and referenced to GNSS interseismic velocities. To reduce noise and computational cost while preserving essential information, the InSAR data were spatially downsampled.

The resulting interseismic velocities were then used as input for a joint coupling inversion.The inversion is performed within a Bayesian framework (AlTar/CATMIP) and relies on a forward model of dislocations in a homogeneous elastic medium, with a 3D subduction interface discretized into triangular elements. Data uncertainties are incorporated through the covariance matrix, enhancing the robustness of the results. This probabilistic approach, applied for the first time to this study area, allows exploration of the model space and estimation of both the most probable coupling distribution and its posterior uncertainties.

The results reveal strong and well-constrained coupling in the Jalisco and Michoacán regions, indicating high seismogenic potential. In contrast, coupling in the Guerrero and Oaxaca regions is more heterogeneous and locally appears negative over the observation period, due to the presence of recurrent slow-slip events and post-seismic deformation, whose transient contributions may exceed the plate-convergence rate.

How to cite: Touzout, I., Radiguet, M., Pathier, E., Ragon, T., Kostoglodov, V., and Kazachkina, E.: Quantifying plate interface coupling in the Mexican subduction zone from InSAR and GNSS using Bayesian inversion methods, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14539, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14539, 2026.

It is well established that we can estimate the spatially continuous 3D velocity field of the Earth’s surface by combining InSAR and GNSS. One notable example is the VELMAP1 approach which solves for the surface 3D motions in addition to reference frame alignment parameters and topography-correlated atmospheric noise. With this 3D surface velocity model, it is then a trivial step to convert to a strain map containing the spatial details of tectonic processes. One key challenge for our community is to extend such strain analysis as a function of time. This is because we know that tectonic velocities change significantly over human observable timescales, especially after moderate to large earthquakes and sometimes during interseismic periods.

In this EGU 2026 contribution, I will be showing the progress made in characterizing continental surface strain as a function of time by applying trajectory models2 and a variation of the VELMAP approach to time series of InSAR displacements and GNSS coordinates. InSAR displacements come from the multi-interferogram time series processing of the European Ground Motion Service3, while the GNSS coordinates come from the European Plate Observing System GNSS community (EPOS-GNSS4).

 

References:

[1] Wang, H. and Wright, T.J., 2012. Satellite geodetic imaging reveals internal deformation of western Tibet. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(7).

[2] Bedford, J. and Bevis, M., 2018. Greedy automatic signal decomposition and its application to daily GPS time series. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 123(8), pp.6992-7003.  [https://github.com/TectonicGeodesy-RUB/Gratsid]

[3] European Ground Motion Service: Basic 2019-2023 (vector), Europe, yearly. European Union's Copernicus Land Monitoring Service information, https://land.copernicus.eu/en/products/european-ground-motion-service/egms-basic (Accessed on 15.01.2026). DOI: doi 10.2909/7eb207d6-0a62-4280-b1ca-f4ad1d9f91c3

[4] Fernandes, R., Bruyninx, C., Crocker, P., Menut, J.L., Socquet, A., Vergnolle, M., Avallone, A., Bos, M., Bruni, S., Cardoso, R. and Carvalho, L., 2022. A new European service to share GNSS Data and Products. Annals of Geophysics, 65(3), p.DM317.

How to cite: Bedford, J.: Tracking tectonic strain changes over time using InSAR, GNSS, and trajectory models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15224, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15224, 2026.

EGU26-18409 | Posters on site | TS3.6

Loading rate changes following megathrust earthquakes explored with viscoelastic models 

Mathilde Radiguet, Juliette Cresseaux, Bertrand Lovery, Marcos Moreno, and Anne Socquet

Viscoelastic relaxation following large subduction earthquakes is known to last from years to decades, and affect the interseismic loading rate up to hundreds of kilometers in the trench perpendicular direction. Post seismic relaxation also generates a rotation pattern close to the edges of the ruptured asperity. Recently, several observations reported an accelerated loading rate coeval with megathrust ruptures, at along-trench distances from the epicenter of hundreds of kilometers.

Proposed models involved so far viscoelastic relaxation in the mantle wedge and the oceanic mantle, as well as a weak oceanic LAB layer. However those models often fail to explain simultaneously the amplitude and the spatio-temporal patterns of the observations.

Here, we perform 3D viscoelastic models of post seismic relaxation and explore a range of structural and rheological settings to investigate the mechanisms responsible for the complex loading variations observed. The tested scenarios include a Burgers rheology, viscosity contrasts between the continental and oceanic mantles, a weak LAB, and a low-viscosity layer overlying the subducting slab.

The relevance of these different models is evaluated by comparing their predictions with geodetic observations following several large earthquakes along the Chile–Peru subduction zone, allowing us to assess to assess the relative importance of the proposed mechanisms.

How to cite: Radiguet, M., Cresseaux, J., Lovery, B., Moreno, M., and Socquet, A.: Loading rate changes following megathrust earthquakes explored with viscoelastic models, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18409, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18409, 2026.

EGU26-21446 | Posters on site | TS3.6

Exploring tectonic strain accumulation and release patterns in the Pamir region using Sentinel-1 InSAR data 

Robert Zinke, Sabrina Metzger, Claudio Faccenna, Giorgio Gomba, and Lisa Mollinnier

The Pamir Range in Central Asia accommodates a significant portion of deformation resulting from the ongoing collision of India with Eurasia. The region hosts active faults that are fast-slipping and geomorphically well-expressed, and that have witnessed large- and moderate-magnitude earthquakes during the instrumental period. For example, the Vakhsh and Darvaz faults that bound the Pamir to the north and west, respectively, are characterized by some of the fastest slip rates in continental Asia (> 10 mm/year during Holocene time). Several large-magnitude earthquakes have been recorded within the Pamir, including the 1911 M 7.7 Sarez Lake and 2015 M 7.2 Sarez/Murghab earthquakes. These features and events present a natural laboratory in which to test fundamental questions regarding the nature of strain accumulation and release at collisional plate boundaries. Yet the region remains under-explored from both ground-based and remote sensing perspectives due to its relative inaccessibility, steep terrain, and seasonal changes in snow cover. In this study, we use 7 years of Copernicus Sentinel-1 satellite radar interferometry (InSAR) data processed using a combined permanent scatterer (PS) and distributed scatterer (DS) approach. This approach is more robust in the Pamir ranges where areas of low coherence (e.g., due to snow) can lead to errors in the timeseries displacement measurements.

We use the ground surface velocity maps (averaged over the 7-year observation period) computed from the InSAR data to explore tectonic strain accumulation and release patterns. Spatial patterns of deformation will better constrain the kinematics and relative activity of different faults in the region. Comparison of the geodetic data to paleoseismic earthquake records and offset geomorphic features will provide insights into the temporal behavior the fault network. These combined datasets will address questions including: What portion of the India-Eurasia strain budget is accommodated on mapped, throughgoing tectonic structures such as the Vakhsh and Darvaz faults? What effects have recent, large-magnitude earthquakes (e.g., along the Sarez-Karakul fault system) had on the interseismic strain accumulation rates of surrounding faults? Have the faults experienced significant changes in strain accumulation and release rates over time, as indicated by discrepancies between geodetic and geologic slip rates?

How to cite: Zinke, R., Metzger, S., Faccenna, C., Gomba, G., and Mollinnier, L.: Exploring tectonic strain accumulation and release patterns in the Pamir region using Sentinel-1 InSAR data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21446, 2026.

EGU26-22101 | ECS | Orals | TS3.6

Consistency between a Strain Rate Model and the ESHM20Earthquake Rate Forecast in Europe: insights for seismic hazard 

Bénédicte Donniol Jouve, Anne Socquet, Céline Beauval, Jesus Piña Valdès, and Laurentiu Danciu

Most national and international seismic regulations require quantifying seismic hazard based on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) methods. The probabilities of exceeding ground-motion levels at sites of interest over a future time window are determined by combining a source model and a ground-motion model. Earthquake catalogs, merging instrumental and historical data, are usually used to establish earthquake recurrence models. Although these catalogs extend over several centuries, the observation time windows are often short with respect to the recurrence times of moderate-to-large events and in some regions the recurrence models can be weakly constrained.

In the present work, we take advantage of two new studies conducted at the scale of Europe: the latest release of the probabilistic seismic hazard model for Europe (ESHM20, Danciu et al. 2021); and the strain rate maps computed by Piña-Valdés et al. (2022). Our objective is to test the compatibility between the ESHM20 model and the geodetic dataset from a moment comparison perspective, examining how geodetically-observed deformation relates to seismic strain release.

We computed the seismic and geodetic moment distributions, as well as the overlap between them in polygons, called source zones, defined in ESHM20. We assume that an overlap higher than 35% indicates compatibility between the two models.

Our results show that in areas characterized by high activity, such as the Betics, the Apennines, the Dinarides, and the eastern Mediterranean, the moment rates derived by both methods are generally compatible. In these regions, the different spatial scales between geodesy and seismicity can trigger local incompatibility, but this effect can be neglected with the use of wider zones.

However, areas characterized by low to moderate activity show different behavior. In the Fennoscandia source zones affected by GIA, the two models are not compatible. In the rest of intracontinental Europe, the compatibility between the two models depends on whether they are well-constrained or not.

These findings contribute to understanding what portion of tectonic deformation results in earthquakes across different tectonic contexts, and how spatial scale and data constraints affect this assessment.

 

How to cite: Donniol Jouve, B., Socquet, A., Beauval, C., Piña Valdès, J., and Danciu, L.: Consistency between a Strain Rate Model and the ESHM20Earthquake Rate Forecast in Europe: insights for seismic hazard, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22101, 2026.

EGU26-441 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

A Surface-Breaking Capable Fault in the Greater Caucasus: New Evidence from the 123-km-Long Kur Fault, Azerbaijan 

Giovanni Piccio, Tomáš Pánek, Federico Pasquarè Mariotto, Michal Břežný, Valentina Alice Bracchi, Elisa Dell'Era, Laura Panzeri, Anna Galli, Gulam Babayev, and Alessandro Tibaldi

In this work, we present the results of a structural and geological investigation carried out along the 123-km-long Kur Fault, the frontal structure of the Kura Fold-and-Thrust Belt (Greater Caucasus, Azerbaijan). For the first time, field surveys and paleoseismological trenching revealed a fault plane that reaches the surface along this regional structure, exposing a clear tectonic contact where Lower Pleistocene deposits overthrust Holocene sediments. This observation is crucial, as it demonstrates that the frontal fault of the Greater Caucasus is a capable fault, despite the lack of strong historical earthquakes reported in the area.

In addition to the tectonic contact described above, the Lower Pleistocene deposits exposed in the trench are cut by numerous fault planes, allowing us to reconstruct a stress tensor indicating a purely compressive regime, characterised by reverse dip-slip motion and a horizontal σ₁ oriented NNE–SSW. The orientation of this σ₁ is parallel to both the GPS velocity vectors and the P-axes of available focal mechanisms, suggesting that a NNE–SSW compressional stress field has remained stable from the Pleistocene to the present day. This σ₁ direction is also orthogonal to the regional strike of the Kur Fault (WNW–ESE) and matches the orientation observed at the trench site.

In the same area of the trench site, we identified three distinct river terraces associated with the Kura River. The uppermost and oldest terrace is currently uplifted to 37 m above the modern river level and has been dated to 10 kyr using the OSL method; it displays a tilting of about 5°, consistent with the kinematics of the Kur Fault. The most recent and lowest terrace lies 4–6 m above the present river level, also indicating recent uplift and tilting of the palaeoterraces as a result of active tectonics along the Kur Fault.

Geological evidence from the trench site, combined with uplift data from the river terraces, indicate an average Holocene shortening rate that is greater than the value inferred from GPS measurements. Additionally, the exposed fault plane corresponds to a ~31-km-long segment of the Kur Fault which, based on empirical scaling relationships, is capable of generating an earthquake of approximately M 6.8.

The work was carried out entirely through field data collected during two dedicated campaigns within the framework of the NATO Project G5907 – Science for Peace and Security Programme, which focuses on geohazard assessment around the Shamkir Hydroelectric Power Station (https://shamkirproject.unimib.it/).

How to cite: Piccio, G., Pánek, T., Pasquarè Mariotto, F., Břežný, M., Bracchi, V. A., Dell'Era, E., Panzeri, L., Galli, A., Babayev, G., and Tibaldi, A.: A Surface-Breaking Capable Fault in the Greater Caucasus: New Evidence from the 123-km-Long Kur Fault, Azerbaijan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-441, 2026.

EGU26-753 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Integrated Seismological and Geodetic Analysis of the 2025 Balıkesir–Sındırgı Earthquakes 

Mısra Gedik, Tülay Kaya Eken, Çağkan Serhun Zoroğlu, and Haluk Özener

Western Türkiye, situated on the westward-extruding Anatolian Plate, is one of the most actively deforming regions of the Eurasian-Arabian-African tectonic system. The shear regime of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) Zone to the north and subduction of the Hellenic Trench to the south together drive significant N–S extension across western Türkiye. This extension is accommodated by major E-W-trending graben systems, including Gediz, Simav, and Menderes, making the region an excellent natural laboratory for studying stress transfer and seismic hazard. This tectonic setting, together with elevated heat flow and locally high crustal permeability, gives rise to a highly complex seismotectonic environment with multiple active fault systems in the Balıkesir–Sındırgı region. In 2025, two earthquakes (Mw 6.1 and Mw 6.0) ruptured the Balıkesir–Sındırgı segment of the Simav Fault Zone (SFZ) in this region, initiating an intense aftershock sequence characterized by Mw 3–4 events and several Mw ≥ 5 shocks. This short, spatially clustered sequence offers an opportunity to investigate the stress transfer, seismic productivity, and coseismic deformation in this complex extensional domain. In this study, to understand these processes better, both historical and instrumental period events are compiled and analyzed to describe the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes before and after the 2025 events. Coseismic Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFS) are computed for each mainshock, and the results are compared with the aftershock distribution. A regional ΔCFS analysis is also performed to assess cumulative loading on neighboring fault segments. To evaluate seismic productivity and magnitude–frequency characteristics, a- and b-values are estimated using the Gutenberg–Richter relationship, and spatial variations in b-values are compared with the ΔCFS models. Furthermore, Sentinel-1 SAR images are analyzed with the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technique to map coseismic deformation and to define the source geometry and slip behaviour. Finally, these results are discussed in conjunction with published seismic velocity, magnetotelluric, and geothermal studies, which together indicate a relatively thin and thermally elevated crust that may facilitate shallow normal/oblique faulting and efficient stress transfer.

How to cite: Gedik, M., Kaya Eken, T., Zoroğlu, Ç. S., and Özener, H.: Integrated Seismological and Geodetic Analysis of the 2025 Balıkesir–Sındırgı Earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-753, 2026.

EGU26-779 | ECS | Orals | TS3.1

Reconstructing Quaternary Fault System Geometry and Kinematics in the Campania–Lucania Apennines: a comprehensive perspective 

Ambra Palmucci, Francesco Brozzetti, Assel Akimbekova, Simone Bello, Maurizio Ercoli, Cristina Pauselli, Filippo Carboni, Massimiliano Rinaldo Barchi, Giusy Lavecchia, Gabriela Fernández Viejo, Patricia Cadenas Martínez, and Daniele Cirillo

The Campania-Lucania Apennines represent one of the most structurally complex sectors of the Apennines, characterized by composite stratigraphy, recurrent seismicity, and significant tectonic activity. Historical and instrumental earthquakes, including the 1980 Irpinia event (Mw 6.9), highlight the region’s active deformation. Previous studies attribute much of this seismicity to extensional tectonics associated with Pleistocene-Holocene normal faults, dipping both eastward and westward, which have contributed to the formation of NW-SE-oriented continental basins.
This work investigates whether the extensional deformation pattern observed in the northeastern Alburni Mts – dominated by east-dipping normal faults splaying upward from a regional synthetic detachment plane – extends across the broader internal sector of the Campania-Lucania arc, from the Sele Plain to Agri Valley. To address this issue, we integrate geological and geophysical datasets to reconstruct the trajectory and kinematics of the extensional faults and the subsurface geometry of the associated syntectonic basins.
The present study relies on a multidisciplinary approach. Field surveys and reprocessed published seismic data were combined to produce a regional-scale geological–structural map covering ~9,000 km², from the southern Picentini Mts to the northwestern slopes of Mt. Pollino. These surface constraints supported the construction of four shallow geological cross-sections.
The subsurface interpretation followed a structured workflow that included calibration – throughout synthetic seismogram generation using available well sonic logs in the study area – of seismic data interpreted on twelve commercial 2D seismic lines provided by Eni S.p.A (Italian energy company) and additional seismic profiles from the ViDEPI database, incorporated after being digitized from pdf format into SEG-Y to ensure compatibility and consistent quality of interpreted grids. Seismic interpretation employed multiple techniques, including literature analysis and the digitization of vintage seismic profiles, through raster-to-SEG-Y conversion, for subsequent processing in Move® and Kingdom® platforms, enabling methodological refinement through cross-comparison for this highly complex region.
Depth conversion of the resulted seismic interpretation from two-way travel time to depth, advanced the generation of crustal-scale model. This allowed comparison of contractional and extensional structures and supported 2D restoration analyses to quantify the elongation associated to Quaternary extension, along transects. The resulting 3D model, built from depth-converted  seismic transects down to the Apulian Platform roof, reveals key structural features as: i) the geometry of extensional fault systems and the depth to detachment, ii) hierarchical relationships between normal and reverse faults, and iii) the morphology of Quaternary syntectonic basins with their sedimentary infill. These findings contribute to a comprehensive 3D representation of active extensional faults in the southern Apennines, developed within the framework of the MUSE 4D PRIN project.
This integrated approach demonstrates the value of combining geological field observations with seismic interpretation and well data to constrain fault architecture and basin evolution in highly complex tectonic settings. The results provide new insights into the structural framework of the Campania-Lucania Apennines, with implications for seismic hazard assessment and geodynamic models of the southern Apennines.

How to cite: Palmucci, A., Brozzetti, F., Akimbekova, A., Bello, S., Ercoli, M., Pauselli, C., Carboni, F., Barchi, M. R., Lavecchia, G., Fernández Viejo, G., Cadenas Martínez, P., and Cirillo, D.: Reconstructing Quaternary Fault System Geometry and Kinematics in the Campania–Lucania Apennines: a comprehensive perspective, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-779, 2026.

EGU26-1240 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

The 2025 Sındırgı Earthquake Sequence: Linking Fault Geometry, Stress Transfer and Deep Structure 

Hilal Yalcin, Akın Kürçer, Ozan Karayazı, Oğuzhan Yalvaç, and Çağatay Çal

The 10 August 2025 Mw 6.0 Sındırgı earthquake occurred in one of the most tectonically complex regions of Inner Western Anatolia, where Aegean extension interacts with the westward extrusion of the Anatolian microplate. Despite initial reports indicating a NW–SE–oriented normal-faulting mechanism, the spatial distribution of aftershocks and early field observations point to a more intricate rupture behaviour. Rapid field investigations by the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA) on 11 August 2025 revealed no evidence of surface rupture or localized coseismic deformation along the Sındırgı, Düvertepe or Gelenbe fault zones.

Full-waveform moment tensor inversion of the mainshock and 31 aftershocks yielded robust, well-constrained focal mechanisms. The mainshock exhibits a NW–SE striking oblique-reverse faulting mechanism, with ~90% double-couple content and a centroid depth of approximately 10 km. Aftershock mechanisms display a clear spatial partitioning: reverse and strike-slip components dominate south of the Sındırgı Segment, whereas normal faulting is prevalent to the north. The aftershock sequence further demonstrates a pronounced eastward migration pattern.

Statistical analysis of 6,711 earthquakes recorded between 20 July and 1 September 2025 indicates low regional b-values (0.60–0.70), suggesting elevated differential stress. Following the mainshock, b-values increase toward the eastern portion of the aftershock zone (0.75–0.80), reflecting evolving stress conditions. The Omori p-value (~0.18) indicates an unusually slow decay of aftershocks, consistent with a prolonged period of seismic activation. Stress tensor inversion of 32 focal mechanisms reveals a strike-slip–dominated regime with NE–SW–oriented maximum compression, in agreement with the regional tectonic pattern.

Integration of regional magnetotelluric (MT) profiles shows that the 2025 Sındırgı sequence coincides with deep, low-resistivity zones interpreted as thermally weakened or partially molten lithospheric domains beneath the Simav–İzmir–Balıkesir structural corridor. These MT-based lithospheric anomalies spatially correlate with previous major earthquake sequences, including the 2011 Simav and 2020 Akhisar events, implying a persistent lithospheric control on fault kinematics, stress localization and seismogenesis.

Overall, the 2025 Sındırgı earthquake sequence highlights the combined role of structural complexity and deep lithospheric processes in determining seismic behaviour in Inner Western Anatolia. The integration of seismological, geological and geophysical datasets provides a comprehensive framework for understanding rupture dynamics in this long-lived, active deformation zone.

Keywords :Sındırgı Earthquake Sequence; Moment tensor; Stress tensor inversion; b-value; Aftershock migration; Western Anatolia; Magnetotellurics; Active tectonics.

 

How to cite: Yalcin, H., Kürçer, A., Karayazı, O., Yalvaç, O., and Çal, Ç.: The 2025 Sındırgı Earthquake Sequence: Linking Fault Geometry, Stress Transfer and Deep Structure, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1240, 2026.

EGU26-1476 | Orals | TS3.1

Tectonic Geomorphology of the Batee Fault Inferred from LiDAR: Implications for Fault Kinematics and Segment Linkage in the Great Sumatran Fault System 

Gayatri Indah Marliyani, Yann Klinger, Hurien Helmi, Wenqian Yao, Rahmat Triyono, Jimmi Nugraha, and Andi Azhar Rusdin

The Batee Fault in northern Sumatra represents one of the most enigmatic structures within the Great Sumatran Fault System (GSFS), where fault connectivity, kinematic transitions, and segment boundaries remain poorly understood. Its subdued geomorphic expression, dense vegetation, and limited previous mapping have contributed to long-standing uncertainty regarding its role in accommodating strain in the northern portion of the system. To address this gap, we present the first systematic tectonic geomorphology analysis of the Batee Fault using newly acquired high-resolution airborne LiDAR data. The LiDAR-derived bare-earth DEM (1 m resolution) reveals a continuous but internally complex right-lateral strike-slip fault trace marked by offset and deflected drainages, shutter ridges, linear valleys, pressure ridges, and localized sag depressions. These features allow us to refine the fault geometry, delineate distributed deformation zones, and distinguish between primary and secondary strands. We integrate geomorphic mapping with structural measurements and regional tectonic context to assess fault kinematics and potential linkages to adjacent GSFS segments. This study provides the most detailed surface characterization of the Batee Fault to date and highlight the value of high-resolution LiDAR in resolving fault traces in tropical, low-relief environments. The improved understanding of the Batee Fault’s geometry and kinematics contributes to refining GSFS segmentation models and enhancing seismic hazard assessments in this tectonically active region.

How to cite: Marliyani, G. I., Klinger, Y., Helmi, H., Yao, W., Triyono, R., Nugraha, J., and Rusdin, A. A.: Tectonic Geomorphology of the Batee Fault Inferred from LiDAR: Implications for Fault Kinematics and Segment Linkage in the Great Sumatran Fault System, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1476, 2026.

EGU26-3241 | Posters on site | TS3.1

LiDAR-Based Geological Mapping of the Central Coastal Range, Taiwan: New Constraints on Fault Systems and Arc Deformation 

Yu-Chang Chan, Yu-Cheng Hsu, Po-Lien Chao, Ting-Yu Pai, Cheng-Wei Sun, Chih-Tung Chen, and Jyr-Ching Hu

We present a high-resolution geological reinterpretation of the central Coastal Range of Taiwan based on newly produced LiDAR-assisted geological maps integrated with targeted field verification. LiDAR-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) overcome limitations imposed by poor exposure and dense vegetation and allow systematic mapping of stratigraphic boundaries and fault geometries in this key segment of the Taiwan subduction–collision system. The new maps reveal several previously unrecognized structural features. The Tuluanshan volcanic sequence contains laterally continuous, thick shear zones expressed by aligned geomorphic lineaments and systematic topographic offsets. These shear zones demonstrate significant internal deformation of the volcanic rocks, indicating that the Tuluanshan Formation actively accommodated strain rather than behaving as a rigid volcanic block. Along the western margin of the central Coastal Range, normal faults are commonly observed and consistently occur adjacent to contractional structures. Their spatial association with a major west-verging fault suggests that extension postdated major thrusting and records post-thrust extensional deformation, potentially driven by gravitational collapse or internal reorganization of the Coastal Range wedge. LiDAR-based mapping also significantly refines the distribution of the Lichi Mélange. Mélange boundaries are sharply delineated, and exotic blocks within the Lichi Formation are systematically documented, providing new constraints on mélange formation and transport and underscoring its structural importance in the collision zone. In addition, several previously unrecognized north–south–trending thrust faults are identified, separating sedimentary basins from the Tuluanshan volcanic sequence and defining fundamental tectonic boundaries that segment deformation within the central Coastal Range. These results demonstrate the critical role of LiDAR-based geological mapping in resolving complex structural relationships and provide new constraints on deformation processes during arc–continent collision in Taiwan.

How to cite: Chan, Y.-C., Hsu, Y.-C., Chao, P.-L., Pai, T.-Y., Sun, C.-W., Chen, C.-T., and Hu, J.-C.: LiDAR-Based Geological Mapping of the Central Coastal Range, Taiwan: New Constraints on Fault Systems and Arc Deformation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3241, 2026.

EGU26-3681 | ECS | Orals | TS3.1

Distributed right-lateral strain at the northern boundary of the Quito-Latacunga microblock influenced by arc-volcanism? 

Nicolas Harrichhausen, Léo Marconato, Laurence Audin, Pierre Lacan, Stéphane Baize, Hervé Jomard, Alexandra Alvarado, James Hollingsworth, Pierre-Henri Blard, Patricia Ann Mothes, Frédérique Rolandoné, and Iván Dario Ortiz Martin

Remote sensing and field data indicate distributed right-lateral faulting at the northern edge of the geodetically defined Quito-Latacunga microblock where recent volcanic inflation and seismicity have also been recorded.  Off the west coast of Ecuador and Colombia, oblique subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the South America plate induces northeastward motion of the Northern Andean Sliver relative to stable South America. Recent geodetic studies show this sliver comprises several independent microblocks, with strain accommodated at each of their boundaries. The Quito-Latacunga microblock, located in the densely populated Interandean valley, shows approximately 3 mm/yr of right-lateral strain at its northern boundary. We use available digital terrain models (DTMs), local DTMs derived from Pleiades satellite stereo-imagery, InSAR, Google Earth imagery, and field surveys to demonstrate deformation at the northern boundary is distributed across several northeast-striking right-lateral faults in Ecuador and Colombia. InSAR shows that a recent 2022 M 5.7 earthquake resulted in line-of-sight displacement of 5 cm to 13 cm along one of the east-northeast striking, right-lateral faults. Offset sediments and glacial features indicate recent earthquakes on two other faults north of and subparallel with this rupture. Displaced glacial landforms along one of these faults show slip rates between 0.8 and 6.1 mm/yr, suggesting geologic slip rates that could be higher than geodetic ones. We suggest that ongoing volcanic activity at the nearby Chile-Cerro Negro volcano, and potentially Galeras volcano to the north may influence earthquakes on these faults, enhancing slip and earthquake rates and localizing deformation.

How to cite: Harrichhausen, N., Marconato, L., Audin, L., Lacan, P., Baize, S., Jomard, H., Alvarado, A., Hollingsworth, J., Blard, P.-H., Mothes, P. A., Rolandoné, F., and Ortiz Martin, I. D.: Distributed right-lateral strain at the northern boundary of the Quito-Latacunga microblock influenced by arc-volcanism?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3681, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3681, 2026.

The ML 6.4 Dapu earthquake, which struck southwestern Taiwan on January 20, 2025, occurred in the western foothills belt, an area characterized by folds and thrust faults. The earthquake sequence exhibits intricate fault interactions, with recent observations suggesting a conjugate rupture pattern involving both east-dipping detachment faults and west-dipping basement structures. However, the detailed subsurface structure remains poorly constrained due to the lack of a high-resolution 3D velocity model in this region. To elucidate the seismogenic structure, we conducted a joint inversion of seismic arrival times and gravity data. We utilized a comprehensive dataset integrating: (1) long-term background seismicity recorded by the Central Weather Administration (CWA) from 2012 to 2020, (2) the 2025 Dapu mainshock and its aftershock sequence, and (3) dense gravity observation data in the study area. By incorporating gravity data, our model provides enhanced resolution for shallow crustal structures and density constraints that complement traditional seismic tomography. We focus on imaging the high-resolution 3D velocity and density structures to identify the specific lithological or structural boundaries governing the rupture. Furthermore, we investigate the temporal variations in seismic velocity structure before and after the mainshock to detect potential stress relaxation or fluid migration processes. In this presentation, we will demonstrate the correlation between the derived structural heterogeneity and the aftershock distribution, providing new physical constraints on the seismotectonics of the Dapu earthquake sequence.

How to cite: Kao, T.-W., Yen, H.-Y., and Lo, Y.-T.: Seismogenic Structure and Temporal Velocity Variations of the 2025 ML 6.4 Dapu Earthquake (Taiwan): Insights from Joint Inversion of Seismic and Gravity Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3754, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3754, 2026.

The Hualien area, situated at the collision boundary between the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate, is the most seismically active region in Taiwan. Despite numerous studies, the detailed subsurface geometry and fault distribution remain incompletely resolved due to the complex tectonic interactions between the plates. This study aims to refine the 3D velocity structure using seismic data collected by the Central Weather Administration Seismological Network (CWASN) and the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) from 2012 to 2024. To handle the massive dataset and improve catalog completeness, we employed deep-learning algorithms—using EQTransformer (Mousavi et al., 2020) for phase picking and GaMMA (Zhu et al., 2022) for phase association. Subsequently, we applied the double-difference tomography method (TomoDD; Zhang and Thurber, 2003), incorporating gravity constraints to better resolve shallow velocities. We performed a sequential inversion to obtain high-resolution P- and S-wave velocity structures with a grid spacing of 5 km. Our preliminary static inversion results demonstrate high resolution in onshore regions and reveal critical structural features within the collision zone. These structural geometries are generally consistent with previous tomographic models (e.g., Huang et al., 2014), ensuring the reliability of our static velocity baseline. Building on this reliable static baseline (derived from 2012–2020 data), we further investigate temporal velocity variations (4D tomography) by integrating subsequent data from 2021–2024. By integrating the refined velocity models with relocated seismicity, we aim to provide a more detailed characterization of the complex subsurface structures and their spatiotemporal variations in this active collision zone.

How to cite: Hsu, C.-W., Yen, H.-Y., and Lo, Y.-T.: Investigating Spatiotemporal Variations of Subsurface Velocity Structure in the Hualien Area, Taiwan: Insights from AI-Enhanced Seismic Tomography (2012–2024), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3755, 2026.

EGU26-5215 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Near-surface shear-wave velocity heterogeneity and site effects along the intraplate Hockai Fault Zone (Eastern Belgium) from ambient noise measurements 

Sonia Devi, Hans-Balder Havenith, Valmy Dorival, and Helosie Jordans

The Hockai Fault Zone (HFZ) is a ~42 km-long intraplate fault system in eastern Belgium, located within the Rhenohercynian Zone of the Variscan orogenic belt. It has produced the strongest historical earthquake in the region (Mw 6.3, 1692 Verviers). It is also associated with clusters of slow-moving and reactivated landslides. Despite this relevance, the geometry of the HFZ, its terminations and its influence on near-surface mechanical properties remain insufficiently constrained.

In this study, we present a dense ambient noise dataset and ongoing quantitative modeling aimed at resolving site-specific seismic response and shallow subsurface structure. Multiple field campaigns were conducted along and across the HFZ using broadband (Guralp 6TD) and short-period (Lennartz LE-3D/5s) sensors. Single-station horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) analysis was performed following established SESAME-type criteria, including time-window selection, stability tests, and frequency-dependent uncertainty assessment. The resulting HVSR curves display well-defined and spatially variable fundamental resonance frequencies, indicating strong lateral heterogeneity in near-surface conditions.

To quantitatively interpret these observations, HVSR curve inversion was initiated to derive 1D Vs models, constrained by local geological information. Preliminary results reveal pronounced impedance contrasts within the upper tens of meters, interpreted as the combined effect of weathered bedrock, sedimentary pockets, and fault-related damage zones. These velocity contrasts are expected to exert a first-order control on seismic amplification along the HFZ.

Ongoing HVSR inversions, constrained by local geology, reveal strong shear-wave velocity contrasts within the upper tens of meters, attributed to weathered bedrock, sedimentary pockets, and fault-related damage. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of passive seismic methods for site-response characterization in low-seismicity intraplate regions and provides new constraints relevant for seismic hazard and landslide assessment along the HFZ.

How to cite: Devi, S., Havenith, H.-B., Dorival, V., and Jordans, H.: Near-surface shear-wave velocity heterogeneity and site effects along the intraplate Hockai Fault Zone (Eastern Belgium) from ambient noise measurements, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5215, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5215, 2026.

The Bayan Har block, located in the central part of the Tibet Plateau, is a key region characterized by intense tectonic activity and frequent major earthquakes within the plateau. It also serves as a crucial pathway for the eastward extrusion of the Tibet Plateau and continental shortening deformation. Systematically characterizing the current deformation and strain distribution of this block holds significant scientific value for understanding the plateau's tectonic deformation mechanisms and potential seismic hazards. Utilizing Sentinel-1 satellite data from 2015-2025 and integrating GNSS data, we obtained high-resolution three-dimensional deformation and strain rate fields for the Bayan Har block. The results reveal that the east-west component of the 3D velocity field exhibits significant cross-fault velocity discontinuities and gradients near the East Kunlun Fault, Xianshuihe Fault, and some secondary faults, reflecting the dominant deformation features of the overall eastward escape of the Bayan Har block and its boundary strike-slip faults. The north-south component is relatively smooth, primarily reflecting block-scale differential motion and GNSS interpolation constraints. The vertical component is dominated by slow subsidence, with localized patchy anomalies closely related to non-tectonic signals such as permafrost, hydrology, and surface processes. Current strain in the Bayan Har block is significantly concentrated along its boundaries and several major strike-slip fault zones. High shear strain rate belts spatially coincide with large faults like the East Kunlun and Xianshuihe faults, while areal strain rates reveal a mixed tectonic environment dominated by compression around strike-slip faults, with localized extension. Given that the InSAR observation period includes postseismic recovery processes from strong earthquakes such as the 2001 Kunlun Mountains and 2021 Maduo events, the high strain rates and pronounced cross-fault gradients along the faults reflect the combined effects of transient postseismic deformation and interseismic steady-state locking.

How to cite: Qu, C. and Chen, H.: Observation and Study on High Resolution Deformation and Strain Field Characteristics of the Bayan Har Block in the Central Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5281, 2026.

EGU26-5531 | Posters on site | TS3.1

Geophysical evidence of neotectonic activity on the Aller Valley Fault system in northern Germany 

David Tanner, Christian Brandes, Ulrich Polom, Jan Igel, Jutta Winsemann, and Sumiko Tsukamoto

Northern Germany is commonly regarded as a low seismicity area, but a number of historic earthquakes with intensities of up to VII have occurred in this region during the last 1200 years. The Aller Valley fault system, with a length of about 250 km, is one of the major fault systems in northern Germany. It strikes NW-SE and extends from the Magdeburg area over Wolfsburg across Lower Saxony to the area of Bremen and Oldenburg, close to the border to the Netherlands. This fault was highly active in the Mesozoic. Reflection seismic profiles of the petroleum industry show that during the Triassic it was a normal growth fault, which was inverted during Late Cretaceous compression. In addition, a large number of earthquakes have occurred close to the Aller Valley Fault system between AD997 and 1576.

We carried out seven, high-resolution, shear(S)-wave reflection seismic profiles accompanied by georadar in an area of the Aller Valley Fault system near Lehringen in Lower Saxony. Shear waves propagate up to twelve times slower than P-waves in unconsolidated sediments, making it the ideal tool to investigate the near-surface. The geological map displays a rhomboidal outcrop of Eemian sediments in this area, which we hypothese is a pull-apart basin.

The S-wave seismic profiles image a number of Eemian and Weichselian depocentres at depths of 10-30 m that are progressively displaced north-eastwards by a series of steep to vertical faults that propagate from depth. The georadar data provide a high-resolution imaging of the upper 5 m of the Weichselian sediments and support the findings of the seismics. In some georadar profiles, fault structures in the Weichselian sediments are imaged, indicating that the faults must still have been active after sedimentation. OSL-dating of a hand drill core has substantiated the geological interpretation. We postulate that the recent fault activity is due to glacial isostatic adjustment.

How to cite: Tanner, D., Brandes, C., Polom, U., Igel, J., Winsemann, J., and Tsukamoto, S.: Geophysical evidence of neotectonic activity on the Aller Valley Fault system in northern Germany, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5531, 2026.

EGU26-6444 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Assessing the feasibility of DInSAR for detecting coseismic deformation in small-magnitude earthquakes: the 2023 ML 4.4 Umbertide earthquake (Central Italy) 

Riccardo Gaspari, Martina Occhipinti, Claudio De Luca, Fernando Monterroso, Federica Riva, Ioannis Doukakos, Shaila Amorini, Giacomo Cenci, Massimiliano Rinaldo Barchi, and Massimiliano Porreca

Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) techniques are largely used to detect coseismic deformation patterns associated with large-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes. In contrast, small earthquakes (M<5), although far more frequent and potentially crucial for understanding regional stress regimes and active faulting, generally produce weak surface deformation that is difficult to detect using remote sensing approaches.

In this work, we integrate relocated seismicity, observed DInSAR deformation, and the Okada elastic dislocation model to infer insights into the geometry and mechanics of the causative fault of the 2023 ML 4.4 Umbertide extensional earthquake in Central Italy. The seismicity was relocated using the Non-Linear Earthquake Location Algorithm in combination with the three-dimensional velocity model developed specifically for the area.

We benefited of Sentinel-1 Line Of Sight (LOS) displacement maps generated over ascending and descending orbits through the EPOSAR service of the European Plate Observing System (EPOS) Research Infrastructure. These data were exploited to derive the vertical and east-west deformation components using a recently developed open-source Python tool capable of combining multiple LOS displacement maps. The results reveal up to ~2 cm of subsidence and ~1.5 cm of eastward motion in the epicentral area, suggesting the activation of a NE-dipping normal fault, consistent with the relocated seismicity distribution.

The focal mechanism parameters of this plane were adopted for the Okada modeling. According to the maximum-likelihood solution of the ML 4.4 mainshock relocation, the source was modeled at 3.5 km of depth. The best-fitting solution between the modeled and observed deformation is a rectangular planar fault measuring 2.3 × 2.7 km (L × W), with a maximum slip of 20 cm.

Despite the earthquake’s limited magnitude and the surface deformation signal being partially affected by atmospheric disturbances, properly applied DInSAR techniques can provide a detailed estimation of surface displacement. The results demonstrate DInSAR’s ability to detect deformation induced by small-magnitude earthquakes in a seismically active region, with the potential to improve active fault mapping and seismic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Gaspari, R., Occhipinti, M., De Luca, C., Monterroso, F., Riva, F., Doukakos, I., Amorini, S., Cenci, G., Barchi, M. R., and Porreca, M.: Assessing the feasibility of DInSAR for detecting coseismic deformation in small-magnitude earthquakes: the 2023 ML 4.4 Umbertide earthquake (Central Italy), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6444, 2026.

At the present stage of tectogenesis, the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus reveals itself by relatively higher seismic activity within Azerbaijan territory, where more than 80 earthquakes with M ≥ 4 took place over the past century, whereas 20 of them was with M ≥ 5. Seismic activity in this region is associated with ongoing, intense structural restructuring here with significant amplitudes of recent movements in the underthrust-thrust interaction zone of the South and North Caucasian continental blocks (microplates) within the boundaries of the collisional interaction of the Eurasian and Afro-Arabian continents. The Earth crust of the region is characterized by tectonic heterogeneity, expressed by the complex relationships between its constituent structural-formational units with different lithological-stratigraphic sections, deformation patterns, and geological development history.

With this study we analyze active tectonics of the region from the viewpoint of the mechanism of the ongoing pseudosubduction process within convergence zone of the south and north Caucasian microplates. We have also analyzed and interpreted seismological data along with GPS monitoring results in relation to geodynamic activity with determining of correlations with deep structure peculiarities. An analysis of the distribution of earthquake foci indicates the existence of structural-dynamic relationships between them and subvertical and subhorizontal contacts in the earth's crust.   During the continental stage of Alpine tectogenesis (since the end of the Miocene), intensive lateral compression process was caused by intrusion of the frontal wedge of the Arabian indenter into the buffer structures of the southern frame of Eurasia. This geodynamic phenomenon is actual also for present day time. This fact evidenced by GPS measurements on recent geodynamic activity, which demonstrates intensive (up to 20 mm/year) movement of the Southern Caucasus block toward Northern Caucasus microplate. It is suggested that this process led to observed seismic activity from historical period, where the earthquakes occurred mainly in the southern slope’s accretionary prism area and the adjacent strip of the Southern Caucasus microplate.  

Likewise, we also analyzed and correlated some range of strong (M>5.0) seismic events that occurred within study area until 2026, involving their fault plane solutions. The focal mechanisms of the earthquakes reveal various types of mechanisms, but mostly near-vertical, normal and strike-slip faulting mechanisms. As a result of our study, we have also generated a digital 3-D tectonic-geodynamic model of the geological environment along with earthquakes’ in-depth distribution, which in turn explains from geological point of view the causes of ongoing seismic activity within study area.

How to cite: Aliyev, F. and Kangarli, T.: Tectono-Geodynamic model of the earthquake’s foci zones of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus (within Azerbaijan) , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6996, 2026.

EGU26-7303 | ECS | Orals | TS3.1

Seismic imaging across a rupture-limiting section boundary of the Alpine Fault, New Zealand  

Karen Lythgoe, Ben Farrar, Jack-Andrew Smith, Andrew Curtis, John Townend, Calum Chamberlain, Emily Warren-Smith, and Jennifer Jenkins

The Alpine Fault in Aotearoa New Zealand is a major plate boundary strike-slip fault, that has hosted great earthquakes in the past and is forecast to have a high chance of hosting an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater in the next fifty years. The fault is thought to be segmented based on changes in fault geometry and kinematics, with sections rupturing both individually and in combination. We focus on an area where the fault is thought to transition between a vertical geometry to a dipping geometry, which has been a rupture boundary in past earthquakes. Specifically, surface mapping indicates that the fault changes from a near-vertical orientation in the South Westland Section, to dipping ~60-45° to the SE in the Central Section, but it is unclear how this change is accommodated in the subsurface.

 

We image the subsurface at this section boundary using both a temporary seismic array deployed along the fault and long-term seismic stations. We use teleseismic earthquakes to generate receiver functions which are sensitive to crustal structure below seismic stations. Using both velocity inversion and common conversion point stacking, we find there are distinct crustal structures on either side of the surface fault trace. Our results indicate that the southern vertical fault section may continue to the north past the segment boundary, and that both a vertical and dipping fault may co-exist beyond the segment boundary. This is consistent with microseismicity and previous tectonic studies, and has implications for fault rupture scenarios.

How to cite: Lythgoe, K., Farrar, B., Smith, J.-A., Curtis, A., Townend, J., Chamberlain, C., Warren-Smith, E., and Jenkins, J.: Seismic imaging across a rupture-limiting section boundary of the Alpine Fault, New Zealand , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7303, 2026.

EGU26-7388 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Identification of active fault traces of the Abra River fault system, northwestern Luzon, Philippines, from tectonic geomorphic features 

Chun-Chi Chen, J. Bruce H. Shyu, and Noelynna T. Ramos

The Philippine fault system is characterized by primarily sinistral fault segments and traverses the entire Philippine archipelago. On the populous Luzon Island, the northern segment of this active fault system poses significant seismic hazards, as evidenced by the 1990 MW 7.7 Luzon earthquake in central Luzon and the 2022 MW 7.0 Abra earthquake in northwestern Luzon. However, the precise location and characteristics of the fault traces along some of the fault’s segments still remain poorly understood, such as the Abra River fault system (ARFS) in the Abra Province. Therefore, this study aims to identify and characterize the active fault traces of the ARFS on the basis of tectonic geomorphic features related to strike-slip faulting using a 5-m resolution DEM, augmented by field investigations.

Based on geomorphic manifestations and results from our field investigations, we identified at least three major sinistral fault traces of the ARFS along the Abra River valley. Although our mapping results are generally consistent with the published map by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), the new mapping provides better constraints and information for several fault segments that were previously uncertain. Along the fault traces, numerous offset channels, offset alluvial fans, and offset bedrock ridges indicate that the ARFS exhibits primarily left-lateral motion. During field investigation, we found two fault zone outcrops aligned with offset geomorphic features with vertical fault plane and horizontal slickensides, consistent with strike-slip faulting of the ARFS. Flexural scarps and pressure ridges that deform Quaternary fluvial sediments show that these ARFS traces are active. The predominantly sinistral motion of the ARFS is not consistent with the focal mechanism of the 2022 Abra earthquake, which is characterized by reverse motion on a gently dipping fault plane. This suggests the ARFS is not the seismogenic fault of the 2022 event, and the accumulated strain along this structure may have not yet been fully released within the time period of written history. As a result, the ARFS poses a great seismic hazard for the area, and it is necessary to further understand its earthquake behavior and paleoseismic characteristics.

How to cite: Chen, C.-C., Shyu, J. B. H., and Ramos, N. T.: Identification of active fault traces of the Abra River fault system, northwestern Luzon, Philippines, from tectonic geomorphic features, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7388, 2026.

EGU26-7851 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Late Quaternary fault evolution at the Sierra de Aconquija, Argentina, characterized from 10Be and drone-based topographic data 

Alex Hughes, Taylor Schildgen, Mitch D'Arcy, Henry Crawford, Hella Wittmann, and Sascha Brune

Quantifying fault evolution in time and space is essential for characterising earthquake hazards and understanding landscape evolution. For a complete picture of Quaternary fault evolution, slip rates calculated from geomorphic strain markers bridge the gap between long-term rates from geological data and contemporary data from seismicity or geodesy. Here, we present a high-resolution record of fault slip rates from the Sierra de Aconquija (SdA), northwest Argentina, based on 10Be surface exposure dating of boulders and cm-scale topographic data derived from drone-based photogrammetry. Located at the broken foreland of the southern-central Andes, the SdA overlies a transition zone from dipping to flat-slab subduction and therefore provides an opportunity to investigate how complex slab interactions at depth manifest in upper-crustal fault slip. Coalesced alluvial fans have been deposited on the western flank of the SdA, which preserve at least seven aggraded depositional units up to ~300 ka and display scarps associated with east-dipping, range-bounding, reverse faults. We present 55 new cosmogenic 10Be surface exposure ages from boulders deposited on the fan surfaces. These ages extend an existing fan chronology of 43 ages to cover ~55 km along strike. To measure fault slip, we flew 54 drone surveys to collect photogrammetry data from which we generated 14, centimetre-scale, digital-elevation models using structure-from-motion techniques. Preliminary slip rates span 0.06–2.22 mm/yr. Our data indicate that a fault strand propagated outward from the range front around ~200 ka, which exhibits comparable average slip rates to a parallel strand at the range front. The slowest rates of ~0.06 mm/yr are from the end of this outbound strand and the fastest rates of 1.23–2.22 mm/yr are at the southern end of the Aconquija fault, where deformation is focused on a single range-front strand. Long-term slip rates decrease around a pronounced bend in the fault, suggesting rupture segmentation and ongoing fault linkage. Overall, late Quaternary deformation along the western SdA is evolving both outwards from the range front, and southwards along the range front. This pattern supports existing models of landscape evolution and drainage divide migration linked to Quaternary slip on predominantly east-dipping faults. Ongoing work aims to integrate these findings into a broader context of tectonic and landscape evolution in the Andean foreland.

How to cite: Hughes, A., Schildgen, T., D'Arcy, M., Crawford, H., Wittmann, H., and Brune, S.: Late Quaternary fault evolution at the Sierra de Aconquija, Argentina, characterized from 10Be and drone-based topographic data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7851, 2026.

EGU26-8576 | Orals | TS3.1

Seismic evidence for a Holocene Mw 6.5-7.1 earthquake along the Littoral Fault Zone, off the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area 

Yingci Feng, Jiaxian Huang, Xiaodong Yang, Jian Li, Jie Sun, and Wenhuan Zhan

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is one of the most economically developing and densely populated areas in China. It is spatially only ~20-100 km north of the central segment of the largest regional seismogenic fault-the Littoral Fault Zone. However, this segment is absent of major earthquakes with Mw =>7 in documented history (since 1600) while the west and east segments of Littoral Fault Zone have experienced several Mw=>7 events, it remains unclear whether this segment is aseismic, or has longer earthquake recurrence interval. The answer to this question matters greatly to the precise assessment of earthquake potential for the GBA. To address this issue, we used newly acquired >4000-km-long seismic reflection profiles, in combination with 1 shallow borehole data, to examine the detailed fault structures and evaluate the Holocene activity of the Littoral Fault Zone central segment. Our new results show that this central segment is approximately 157-km long with decreasing width from 25 km to 6 km westward. It comprises a NEE-trending and SE-dipping main fault with two sub-segment and a series of secondary normal faults. In the west sub-segment of the main fault, the 115-km en-echelon segmented sidewall faults consist of the 80-km segmented late Pleistocene faults and the 35-km Holocene fault, with maximum 2.7 m displacement of the Holocene activity. In its east sub-segment, the main fault is a 42-km strike-slip fault (transtensional faults) with negative flower structures and a fault bend transitioning from the NEE trend (N70°) to the SEE trend (N110°). The Holocene fault directly cuts through the Holocene strata with tips reaching 6.6 m from the seafloor, while the Late Pleistocene faults cause the overlying strata to be deformed and folded. Based on the Holocene rupture displacement and active length, we estimated that the main fault may have triggered earthquakes with magnitude up to Mw 6.6-7.1.

How to cite: Feng, Y., Huang, J., Yang, X., Li, J., Sun, J., and Zhan, W.: Seismic evidence for a Holocene Mw 6.5-7.1 earthquake along the Littoral Fault Zone, off the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8576, 2026.

Determining slip rates along the tectonic fault is essential for understanding its deformation mode and assessing the future seismic hazard. Benefited from the Copernicus Sentinel-1 series mission, we are now able to derive large-scale, high-resolution, and three-dimensional velocity fields by integrating Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). The East Kunlun Fault is the northern border of the Bayan Har Block in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, which is approximately 1500 kilometers long and has hosted 4 M>6 earthquakes in the past century, including the 2001 Mw 7.8 Kokoxili earthquake. There are two seismic gaps on this fault, raising our concerns regarding its future earthquake hazard.

Here, we process 10 years (2014–2024) of Sentinel-1 SAR data to obtain the line-of-sight (LOS) velocity fileds covering ~0.65 million km2, using the COMET LiCSAR automated processing system. The InSAR velocities are transformed into the fixed Eurasian reference frame by fitting a planer ramp to the differences between InSAR and GNSS LOS velocities. We develop an algorithm to tie InSAR velocity frames together in regions lacking efficient GNSS observations. Using the GNSS-interpolated north velocities as prior constraints, we decompose InSAR ascending and descending velocities into east and vertical components. We observe long-wavelength tectonic signals from InSAR east velocity map, including clear slip gradient across the East Kunlun Fault, and postseismic deformation associated with the Kokoxili earthquake.

We apply four analytical models within a Bayesian inversion framework to estimate slip rates along the East Kunlun Fault: a simple screw dislocation model, an interseismic and afterslip coupling model, a shallow and deep creeping coupling model and a shear zone model. Our results indicate up to 26.4 mm/yr postseismic slip in western segment of the fault, and 1.3–2.4 mm/yr shallow creep in the eastern segment. The InSAR east velocity show a slip decrease from the west to east, with the magnitude from ~14.5 mm/yr to ~4.5 mm/yr, in agreement with some geological slip rates. Additionally, our results suggest the presence of a potential shear zone beneath the fault, with a width of up to ~100 kilometers. Further investigation is required  to determine the mechanisms of the shear zone: whether it results from postseismic deformation or reflects underlying geological processes.

How to cite: Gao, Y. and Lu, Z.: Slip variability along the East Kunlun Fault in eastern Tibet, revealed by InSAR and GNSS, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8714, 2026.

EGU26-9200 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Quaternary Faulting and Fault-Related Geomorphology along the Orogenic Retro Arc Wedge-Front Structure of the Central Andes: The Mandeyapecua Thrust System, Southeastern Bolivia 

Magda Patyniak, Ahmad Arnous, Victoria Alvarellos, Lucía Jagoe, Alana M. Williams, Jose M. Guerra Colque, Osvaldo A. Rosales Sadud, Frank Preusser, J Ramon Arrowsmith, Bodo Bookhagen, and Manfred Strecker

Actively deforming orogens are significant seismic hazard zones, especially in areas with steadily growing populations and infrastructure. An essential and yet oftentimes poorly understood attribute for a coherent hazard and risk assessment is whether the responsible tectonic fault systems are subject to permanent, creeping deformation or episodic, seismogenic rupture processes. In the southern Bolivian Subandes recent regional geodetic surface velocities measurements indicate that the décollement beneath the eastern orogen is the primary contributor to its lateral and vertical growth. Its surface manifestation is the Mandeyapecua Thrust Fault System (MTFS), which marks the active front of the Subandean fold-and-thrust belt in the Chaco foreland basin of Bolivia. Despite significant surface offsets within Quaternary landforms its geomorphic features and tectonic activity remain poorly understood. This study focuses on its longest fault segment – the ~300 km-long Mandeyapecua Fault (MF) located between 19° and 21°S. To evaluate its role in accommodating Quaternary deformation we used high-resolution DEMs, field-based mapping, and morphometric analyses, to document uplifted terraces, drainage anomalies, and fault-related landforms indicative of Quaternary tectonic activity. Electrical Resistivity Tomography surveys at two key sites reveal near-surface structures consistent with blind thrusting and folding. Where faults have reached the surface, the expressions of scarps suggest that the Mandeyapecua Fault (MF) may be segmented. Geochronological data along the front indicate fault activity during the past 12,000 years, with ruptures possibly spanning ~100 km, but the complex, distributed surface deformation indicates that the MF might not fit a standard thrust-fault model.

How to cite: Patyniak, M., Arnous, A., Alvarellos, V., Jagoe, L., Williams, A. M., Guerra Colque, J. M., Rosales Sadud, O. A., Preusser, F., Arrowsmith, J. R., Bookhagen, B., and Strecker, M.: Quaternary Faulting and Fault-Related Geomorphology along the Orogenic Retro Arc Wedge-Front Structure of the Central Andes: The Mandeyapecua Thrust System, Southeastern Bolivia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9200, 2026.

EGU26-9399 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Characterization of crustal physical properties in the Montello-Collalto area (eastern Southern Alps, Italy) 

Gemma Maria Cipressi, Claudio Madonna, Vincenzo Picotti, and Maria Adelaide Romano

The Montello–Collalto area is located along the outer front of the eastern Southern Alps (Italy), within a fold-and-thrust belt that has been active since the Middle Miocene (Picotti et al., 2022). The region is characterized by a medium-to-high seismic hazard, as demonstrated by historically significant earthquakes such as the 1695 Asolo event (Mw 6.5). Despite this, the causative fault system remains poorly constrained, mainly because most tectonic structures, including the Montello thrust system, are buried beneath recent sediments, and the overall seismicity rate is generally low

At a depth of approximately 1.5 km within the Montello anticline, an Underground Gas Storage (UGS) facility is in operation. The site is continuously monitored by the National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics (OGS) through both regional and dedicated local seismic networks (Priolo et al., 2015). By collecting the seismological data acquired over the years from these two networks and other passive seismic experiments, Cipressi et al. (2025) recently compiled a new uniform seismic catalog for the area. It includes 4802 earthquakes (-0.9 ≤ ML ≤ 3.9) that occurred between 1977 and 2023, all relocated using the same code (NonLinLoc, by Lomax et al., 2001) and velocity model (Romano et al., 2019).

To better characterize the 3D seismic velocity structure of the area, a new velocity model was developed, based directly on laboratory measurements performed on rock samples representative of the local stratigraphic sequence. Through a fieldwork conducted in the study area, a total of 22 samples were collected and subjected to VP and VS measurements at ETH Zürich using the pulse-transmission method (Birch, 1960). Overall, the measurements were performed under varying confining pressures, during both loading and unloading phases, ranging from 5 MPa to 200 MPa to simulate different depth conditions.

The laboratory-derived values were scaled for better corresponding to the lithological volumes and implemented within a dedicated 3D geological model of the study area, based on the structural interpretation by Picotti et al. (2022) and constructed using Midland Valley’s 3D Move software. This approach allows for a detailed and physically constrained characterization of seismic velocities in the upper ~10 km of the crust, which represents the depth range most relevant for the UGS monitoring.

The newly developed 3D velocity model will be tested and validated by relocating the seismic events included in the updated seismic catalog (Cipressi et al., 2025). Through the analysis of the travel time residuals we will assess whether velocity models derived from geological and laboratory data can effectively constrain seismic velocities and improve earthquake locations. Ultimately, this approach may also help refine the current geological interpretation of the area and improve understanding of the seismic behaviour of the main seismogenic structures.

How to cite: Cipressi, G. M., Madonna, C., Picotti, V., and Romano, M. A.: Characterization of crustal physical properties in the Montello-Collalto area (eastern Southern Alps, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9399, 2026.

EGU26-9518 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Active structures in the Rioni foreland basin, Georgia 

Demur Merkviladze, Anzor Giorgadze, and Nino Kvavadze

The Rioni foreland basin system lies between the Greater and Lesser Caucasus orogens and is 
located in the far-field part of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone. Deformation of the Rioni 
double flexural foreland basin was controlled by the action of two opposing orogenic fronts, 
the Lesser Caucasus retro-wedge to the south and the Greater Caucasus pro-wedge to the 
north (e.g., Alania et al., 2022; Banks et al., 1997; Tibaldi et al., 2017).  


Recent GPS and earthquake data indicate that the Rioni foreland basin is still tectonically 
active (e.g., Sokhadze et al., 2018; Tibaldi et al., 2020). Historical and instrumental seismic 
activity is concentrated along the frontal thrusts located along the northern and southern 
borders of the Greater and Lesser Caucasus orogens, and in the core of this foreland basin. 
All the focal mechanism solutions within the study area have a reverse and thrust fault 
kinematics (Tibaldi et al., 2020; Tsereteli et al., 2016). 


Fault-related folding and wedge thrust folding theories (Shaw et al., 2005) were employed in 
the interpretation of seismic reflection profiles and the construction of regional structural 
cross-sections across the Rioni foreland basin. Seismic profiles and structural cross-sections 
show that most earthquakes in the Rioni foreland basin occur at depths of 5-10 km.  In the 
Rioni foreland basin, fault planes do not necessarily reach the surface, and some active 
structures can be regarded as blind thrust faults, fault-bend and fault-propagation folds, 
duplexes, and these structures are mainly located at the frontal part of the Lesser Caucasus 
retro-wedge and the Greater Caucasus pro-wedge. 

How to cite: Merkviladze, D., Giorgadze, A., and Kvavadze, N.: Active structures in the Rioni foreland basin, Georgia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9518, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9518, 2026.

EGU26-9533 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Seismically active thrust faults and wedge structures beneath the western Greater Caucasus orogen pro-wedge, Georgia 

Nino Kvavadze, Victor Alania, Onise Enukidze, Archil Magalashvili, Alexander Razmadze, and Demur Merkviladze

The Greater Caucasus is a typical active double wedge orogen that accommodates the crustal shortening due to far-field effects of the collision between the Arabian and Eurasian plates. Our study area is the western part of the Greater Caucasus pro-wedge, represented by the central and northern parts of the Rioni Foreland basin and the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus. Here, we present a new structural model based on interpreted seismic profiles, regional structural cross-sections, and earthquake focal mechanisms. From SSW to NNE, serial structural cross-sections reveal: (1) basement-involved thrust faults and thick-skinned fault-bend folds, and (2) thin-skinned structures expressed as duplexes and imbricate fault-propagation folds. The dominant compressional structural styles are controlled by multiple detachment horizons.

According to the presented serial structural cross-sections, the Enguri HPP dam is located on top of the triangle zone. Major basement-involved thrusts produce first-order thick-skinned fault-bend folds, which move southward, creating second-order fault-propagation folds and duplexes in the sedimentary cover. Preexisting, basement-involved extensional faults inverted during compressive deformation produced basement-cored uplifts that transferred thick-skinned shortening southward onto the thin-skinned structures detached above the basement.

The correlation of earthquake hypocenters and focal mechanisms with faults interpreted from 3D structural models enables the identification of active structures. Five potentially active thrust faults are recognized within the study area. Four of these structures are south-vergent thrusts, whereas one corresponds to an out-of-sequence thrust.

Acknowledgments. This work was funded by Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation (SRNSF) (grant# FR-23-8896).

How to cite: Kvavadze, N., Alania, V., Enukidze, O., Magalashvili, A., Razmadze, A., and Merkviladze, D.: Seismically active thrust faults and wedge structures beneath the western Greater Caucasus orogen pro-wedge, Georgia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9533, 2026.

EGU26-9794 | Posters on site | TS3.1

Structural model of the Mtskheta 1275 (Mw=6.5) historical earthquake epicentral area using seismic profiles, Georgia 

Alexander Razmadze, Nino Kvavadze, and Tamar Shikhashvili

We have presented a new structural model of the Mtskheta 1275 (Mw=6.5) historical earthquake epicentral area. The Mtskheta historical earthquake is located in the frontal part of the Lesser Caucasus orogen pro-wedge (Alania, V., et al., 2023). The frontal part of the Lesser Caucasus orogen is characterized by moderate seismic activity (e.g., Tsereteli et al., 2016). From the determination of the deep structure of the Mtskheta 1275 (Mw=6.5) historical earthquake epicentral area, we use seismic reflection profiles. Seismic reflection profiles show north-vergent duplexes, and structural wedge at the triangle zone beneath the thrust front monocline and is represented by Cretaceous-Neogene strata. In the southern part of the Kura foreland basin, the Oligocene-Lower Miocene strata have been deformed and uplifted by passive-back thrusting at the triangle zone. Based on the new structural model, it has been suggested that the Mtskheta 1275 (Mw=6.5) historical earthquake was related to structural wedge. The results of our subsurface interpretations have important implications for how this fold-and-thrust belt formed, in addition to the effect of structural style on active tectonics in the retro-wedge of the Lesser Caucasus orogen.

Acknowledgments. This work was funded by Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation (SRNSF) (grant# FR-23-8896).

How to cite: Razmadze, A., Kvavadze, N., and Shikhashvili, T.: Structural model of the Mtskheta 1275 (Mw=6.5) historical earthquake epicentral area using seismic profiles, Georgia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9794, 2026.

EGU26-9814 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Assessing fault-earthquake relationships for low-grade seismic sequences (ML<4.5): examples from the extensional belt of central Italy 

Federica Riva, Simone Marzorati, Diana Latorre, and Massimiliano Rinaldo Barchi

In northern Umbria (central Italy), the region between the Tiber Valley, Gubbio, and the main Apennine ridge is affected by persistent microseismicity (ML < 3.0), occurring at an average rate of ~3 events per day. A significant portion of this activity is associated with the Alto Tiberina Fault (ATF), a ~60 km-long, low-angle normal fault that has been active since the Late Pliocene–Early Pleistocene. Within this tectonic framework, we analyse seven low-magnitude seismic sequences (ML < 4.5) that occurred between 2010 and 2023 within the ATF hanging wall. These sequences are not linked to surface-exposed faults, raising questions about the nature and distribution of the seismogenic sources.

The main objectives of this study are to: (1) determine whether the observed seismicity is concentrated along discrete fault planes or instead distributed within fractured rock volumes; and (2) define the geometry and kinematics of the causative faults and assess their correspondence with structures imaged in available 2D seismic reflection profiles. Earthquakes were relocated using a high-resolution 3D velocity model and projected onto depth-converted seismic reflection sections.  Consequently, this work presents a methodological framework for analyzing low-magnitude seismic sequences by integrating active and passive seismic data.

Our results indicate that most ruptures occurred on high-angle normal faults that branch upward from the ATF detachment. The geometry of these faults is consistently constrained by both the depth distribution of relocated seismicity and the corresponding reflectors imaged in the seismic profiles, while their kinematic behaviour is compatible with that inferred for the mainshocks. The aftershock areas range from ~1 to 15 km², suggesting that the mainshocks ruptured only limited portions of larger fault segments. Additionally, the behaviour of these minor sequences, particularly in terms of rupture localization and aftershock spatial patterns, closely mirrors that observed for higher-magnitude sequences in the same region, indicating that similar seismotectonic processes operate across different magnitude scales.

How to cite: Riva, F., Marzorati, S., Latorre, D., and Barchi, M. R.: Assessing fault-earthquake relationships for low-grade seismic sequences (ML<4.5): examples from the extensional belt of central Italy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9814, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9814, 2026.

Resolving and characterizing the geometry and kinematics of blind thrusts is a primary challenge in active tectonic settings, notably where seismicity nucleates at depths beyond the resolution of industrial seismic reflection profiles and borehole data. In this context, the Emilian Thrust System represents a significant case study. As one of the three arcuate thrust fronts constituting the fold and thrust belt of the Northern Apennines (Italy), it exemplifies the complex interplay between deep-seated thrusting and shallower extension that drives crustal shortening in Plio–Quaternary basins. Despite this active deformation, the lack of surface constraints and the occurrence of seismicity at depths where standard geophysical imaging fails (20 – 25 km) create a critical knowledge gap.

This work aims to overcome these observational limitations by employing high-resolution microseismicity to decipher the hidden structural architecture of the arc. To address this, we performed a critical re-evaluation of the crustal velocity structure, as existing 1D and 3D regional models often provide discordant depth estimates, introducing significant uncertainties in hypocentral locations. By optimizing these models through the Velest algorithm, we were able to minimize depth location artifacts and better constrain the seismogenic volumes. Our new velocity model provided a robust basis for high-precision relocation via the NonLinLoc code. In order to isolate significant spatio–temporal clusters from the 2008–2024 background seismicity (0.4 ≤ ML ≤ 5.1), we utilized Kernel Density Estimation and β-statistics. The resulting dataset, together with the 2024 Langhirano sequence (comprising over 350 events), were relocated using the updated velocity model. In addition, to further enhance the kinematic framework, we improved the completeness of the existing dataset by computing new focal mechanism solutions for events with 2.5 ≤ ML ≤ 3.9 using the FPFIT software. Relocated hypocentral depths are primarily concentrated between 15 and 30 km, and focal mechanisms indicate kinematics ranging from compressional to strike‑slip.

Our results reveal that current seismicity is predominantly accommodated by a system of antithetic structures to the basal thrusts, spanning depths between 15 and 25 km. While the basal thrust remains largely seismically silent at these depths, the high-resolution definition of these previously unrecognized antithetic faults provides a novel perspective on the structural partitioning of the arc. Stress inversion results support this framework, indicating a prevailing compressive regime with a sub-horizontal σ1 reflecting ongoing crustal shortening. These findings suggest complex seismotectonic behavior where moderate-to-small magnitude events illuminate secondary structures, potentially acting as a release for internal deformation within the wedge. This complexity is further evidenced by the SHmax orientation, which rotates from a N–S trend to approximately NE–SW in the proximity of the intersection between the Emilia and Ferrara arcs.

This integrated approach allows for a refined 3D characterization of blind active faults while offering a critical perspective on deep crustal features. Such results contribute to a better definition of the seismotectonic potential of the region, providing fundamental insights for seismic risk assessment in this strategic industrial and residential area.

How to cite: Lelj, G., Talone, D., and Latorre, D.: Seismotectonic insights into the Emilia Arc: high-resolution earthquake relocation and 3D characterization of the 2024 Langhirano sequence, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10069, 2026.

EGU26-10680 | ECS | Orals | TS3.1

Seismotectonics and the pattern of active deformation from collision to subduction in the Zagros – Makran transition zone 

Mir Ali Hassanzadeh, Esmaeil Shabanian, Shiva Arvin, Mohammadreza Jamalreyhani, and Naif Al Mamaari

The transition between the active Makran subduction and the Zagros continental collision exhibits significant differences on either side, making the Zagros-Makran Transition Zone (ZMTZ) a natural laboratory to study seismotectonic processes. This study investigates the active deformation patterns and their links to deep seismogenic structures, aiming to define the main active structures of the ZMTZ. We focus on seismicity of the Goharan area, the only cluster in the region, with its main event (Mw = 6.2) occurring on May 11, 2013. The Hypocentroidal Decomposition Algorithm used for multiple event relocation analysis. By incorporating data from 46 seismic stations belong to different seismic networks, we were able to minimize the azimuthal gap and reduce the potential biases in location. The relocation results reveal an east-west lineament in the Goharan cluster, consistent with InSAR observations. The seismicity (Ml > 4) recorded from 2006-2021 by 44 permanent broad-band seismic stations of the Iran and Oman network was used to perform the moment tensor inversion using the probabilistic inversion method. Also, a stress inversion of the focal mechanisms was performed to acquire the present-day stress regime and fault planes from nodal planes of the earthquake focal mechanisms of the region. The obtained results provided Quaternary stress tensors, revealing the active stress field and fault mechanisms in the region. High-resolution satellite imagery, combined with geological and seismological data reveal that active deformation is mainly accommodated by a series of ENE-trending sinistral faults, which are in close interaction with almost N-S dextral faults. These conjugate fault networks intersect pre-Quaternary structures and are independent of structural processes that directly affect the MZP and Makran subduction zones. ENE-trending sinistral faults are accompanied by steep structural steps in the North Makran thrust boundaries and correspond to the locations where the inner Makran zone narrows westward to its wedge despair. These observations indicate that (1) sinistral faults west of 61°E have been active since the initial formation of the Makran wedge, (2) interacting with the dextral conjugate series, these Quaternary structures accommodate part of NNE-SSW shortening due to the convergence of the Arabia–Lut block, transferring some deformation northward without major folding or thrusting, and (3) the existence of these strike-slip faults in this part of the Makran wedge define distinct seismotectonic zones capable of hosting moderate to large continental earthquakes, with a significant impact on seismic hazard. This study reveals that structural interactions in complex tectonic settings can produce deformation patterns not predicted by classical geological models for the region. The surface deformation in the ZMTZ is influenced by two main deep structures; Arabian underthrusting and the Makran subduction zone. Integrating seismological and geological results provides a new description of the ZMTZ as a triple-junction area between Makran, Zagros, and Central Iran. The outcomes of this project can contribute to a better understanding of crustal deformation in similar cases.

How to cite: Hassanzadeh, M. A., Shabanian, E., Arvin, S., Jamalreyhani, M., and Al Mamaari, N.: Seismotectonics and the pattern of active deformation from collision to subduction in the Zagros – Makran transition zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10680, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10680, 2026.

The Tanlu Fault Zone, extending approximately 2400 km in a NNE orientation, constitutes the most extensive fault system in eastern China and has undergone complex multi-stage tectonic evolution since the Mesozoic. Notwithstanding substantial geological and geophysical investigations, the shallow crustal deformation characteristics across distinct segments and their intrinsic relationship with seismicity distribution remain inadequately constrained. This study presents high-resolution three-dimensional S-wave velocity and azimuthal anisotropy models for the Suqian and Zhangbaling segments, utilizing Rayleigh wave dispersion data extracted from ambient noise recordings acquired by dense portable seismic arrays comprising 238 and 192 short-period seismometers, respectively.


Ambient noise cross-correlation techniques were employed to extract inter-station Rayleigh wave empirical Green's functions, with phase velocity dispersion curves measured across the period range of 0.5 to 8.8 seconds. The DAzimSurfTomo direct inversion method was applied to jointly determine three-dimensional isotropic shear-wave velocity structures and azimuthal anisotropy distributions within the shallow crust at depths of 0 to 8 kilometers. Checkerboard and recovery tests demonstrate that the obtained azimuthal anisotropy models possess reliable resolution capability in regions with adequate ray path coverage.


The inversion results reveal velocity structures corresponding to distinct tectonic units, with high-velocity anomalies associated with uplifted regions and low-velocity anomalies with sedimentary basins. The Suqian segment exhibits systematic depth-dependent variations in fast-wave directions: NNE orientations parallel to the fault strike at shallow depths of 1 to 3 kilometers, transitioning to NE orientations at greater depths of 4 to 8 kilometers, with anisotropic magnitude of 2% to 3%. The Zhangbaling segment displays pronounced anisotropic contrasts between tectonic units, characterized by NE fast-wave directions in the Zhangbaling uplift and NW directions in the Hefei Basin, reflecting fundamentally different deformation characteristics between the North China Plate and South China Plate. Notably, fast-wave directions at the fault-uplift interface exhibit complex depth-dependent variations, progressing from NE (1 to 3 kilometers) to NNE (3 to 6 kilometers) and reverting to NE (6 to 10 kilometers).


Pronounced spatial correlations between anisotropic structure and earthquake distribution indicate that pre-existing crustal fabric exerts primary control on contemporary rupture patterns, with seismicity concentrated at depths of 3 to 5 kilometers where anisotropic transitions occur. The two segments manifest contrasting deformation characteristics: distributed deformation in Suqian versus localized deformation along the sharp anisotropic boundary in Zhangbaling, reflecting distinct evolutionary stages and present-day tectonic regimes. These depth-dependent anisotropic patterns preserve signatures of multi-stage tectonic evolution encompassing early sinistral strike-slip motion, subsequent extensional deformation, and recent compressional tectonics, thereby providing novel constraints on deformation processes and the contemporary stress field within this significant intracontinental fault system.

How to cite: Zhang, B. and Yao, H.: Three-Dimensional Crustal Azimuthal Anisotropy Reveals Multi-Stage Deformation in the Suqian and Zhangbaling Segments of the Tanlu Fault Zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10885, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10885, 2026.

EGU26-11021 | ECS | Orals | TS3.1

Reconstructing the 1947 Manix Earthquake (California) using Historical Aerial Imagery and Optical Image Correlation  

Cecilia Martinelli, James Hollingsworth, and Roland Burgmann

Constraints on rupture geometry and fault slip distribution are typically lacking for historical earthquakes due to limited (or non-existent) seismic and geodetic data, potential lack of field surveys made soon after the earthquake, and the degradation of field evidence over time. However, archival aerial photography can aid in the retrospective analysis of surface deformation using Optical Image Correlation (OIC) for mid-20th century events when pre and post-earthquake imagery is available.  

We focus here on the 1947 Manix earthquake (ML 6.2), which was one of the first known surface rupturing earthquakes documented in the Mojave Desert block of California, and which originally highlighted that this region was capable of hosting large surface rupturing earthquakes. Situated midway between the San Andreas and Garlock faults, this block currently accommodates ~25% (10-14 mm/yr) of the total right-lateral shear associated with the motion between the Pacific and North American Plates. More recent large earthquakes in the region include the 1992 Landers, 1999 Hector Mine, and 2019 Ridgecrest sequences. Nevertheless, the earlier Manix event remains poorly studied, or how this event may have promoted slip on these neighboring faults through stress redistribution. While previous studies describe two shallow sub-events rupturing a conjugate strike-slip fault system (including the Manix fault; Richter, 1947; Doser, 1990), confirmation of exactly which fault ruptured, and the extent of any surface displacement remains unclear.  

Here, we use OIC techniques to quantify the co-seismic displacement field using newly scanned pre- and post-event aerial photos from a variety of surveys. This technique enables us to recover a spatially dense 3D displacement field (with sub-pixel precision), revealing signals previously overlooked by field geologists following the earthquake. We first use Ames Stereo Pipeline to build an internally consistent camera network for each survey, from which we generate a coherent high resolution digital elevation model (DEM) and ortho-mosaic. These are then correlated using COSI-Corr to retrieve the 2D displacement field, while the vertical displacements are obtained from differencing the DEMs while accounting for the horizontal displacement. We provide new quantitative constraints on the surface.

How to cite: Martinelli, C., Hollingsworth, J., and Burgmann, R.: Reconstructing the 1947 Manix Earthquake (California) using Historical Aerial Imagery and Optical Image Correlation , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11021, 2026.

A 271 m-deep borehole was drilled within the town of Avezzano, near the NW margin of the Fucino basin, in the core of the central Apennines of Italy. The basin is a post-orogenic extensional structure controlled by two, nearly orthogonal normal fault systems: one along the northern side of the basin, SSE-dipping, and one along the eastern side of the basin, SW-dipping. The SW-dipping normal fault system sourced the devastating 1915 M7.0 Fucino earthquake. This investigation, conducted as part of a seismic microzonation study, provides critical insights into the temporal evolution of post-orogenic extension and active tectonics in the central Apennines.

In W-E direction, seismic reflection data reveal a semi-graben geometry characterized by a wedge-shaped sedimentary infill thickening eastward toward the main SW-dipping normal fault. The borehole penetrated the western, thinner sector of this sedimentary wedge, reaching the pre-graben bedrock at approximately 270 m depth. The succession comprises continental deposits extending to at least 255 m depth, underlain by marine siliciclastic bedrock. From the surface to ~140 m, continuous and well-preserved lacustrine deposits were recovered. Between 140 and 186 m, core recovery was discontinuous, revealing low-energy lacustrine sediments interbedded with coarser layers. Below 186 m, predominantly coarse-grained deposits caused difficult core recovery. The bedrock, encountered at 269.5-271 m, consists of overconsolidated clays with thin sandy interbeds displaying ~45° dipping bedding planes characteristic of flysch-like rocks.

Comprehensive lithostratigraphic, tephrochronologic, paleomagnetic, and palynological analyses were conducted. Nine tephra layers were identified within the uppermost 40 m, three of which were numerically dated. Paleomagnetic and palynologic sampling was performed at high resolution (2-10 cm intervals), complemented by magnetic susceptibility measurements at 2 cm resolution.

The integrated multiproxy dataset yields a preliminary age model indicating that the lacustrine basin is at least 4.6 Ma old, providing unprecedented temporal constraints on the onset of post-orogenic extension in the central Apennines. This age significantly predates previous estimates. The chronostratigraphic model enables reconstruction of the sedimentary infill history and constrains variations in the activity of the Fucino fault systems through time, providing data for evaluating the temporal evolution and long-term behavior of post-orogenic normal faulting over a multi-Ma timeframe. Micropaleontological analyses of the bedrock core helps in bracketing the age of the transition from compressional tectonics to post-orogenic extension. The results have implications for assessing long-term activity, slip rate and slip rate variability for the active fault system, for seismic hazard applications, while offering insights into the broader late- and post-orogenic evolution of the Apennines. These data support the ICDP Fucino paleolake project proposal MEME (Giaccio and the MEME Team, EGU 2026 Session ITS5.1/CL0.6).

How to cite: Boncio, P. and the 'Avezzano drilling for MEME' Team: The multi-Ma history of the Fucino lacustrine basin (Central Apennines, Italy) inferred from the cores of the deep Avezzano borehole: implications for post-orogenic extension and active tectonics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11634, 2026.

EGU26-11802 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Faults like to hide: subsurface evidence of poorly known and possibly active normal faults at the border between central and southern Apennines (Italy) 

Marco Battistelli, Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa, Francesco Brozzetti, and Federica Ferrarini

The Italian Apennines are among the Mediterranean areas with the highest seismic hazard. Geodetic data show that the belt is experiencing slow deformation rates (3-4 mm/yr, D’Agostino, 2014; Carafa et al., 2020), with a prevalent SW-NE extension. Tectonic activity is expressed by well-exposed normal-fault planes dissecting the carbonate ridges. To infer the activity of these faults, several investigations using morphotectonic, paleoseismological, geophysical, and field survey techniques have been applied, leading to a robust literature in which the active structures are characterized and parametrized. Also, in recent times strong earthquakes with extensional kinematics struck the belt (e.g., 2009 L’Aquila, Mw 6.1; 2016 Norcia, Mw 6.5).

This work focuses on the sector between the central and southern Apennines, the Abruzzo-Molise region boundary (AMB), bordered to NW and SE by well-known active normal fault systems with opposite dip (SW-dipping and NE-dipping, respectively). AMB is characterized by a seismic gap and a complex lithological arrangement composed of prevalent flysch-like and clayey-marls outcrops, whose thickness reaches 2.5 km, which hamper the recognition of active faults at the surface. In a recent study, taking advantage of morphotectonic and remote sensing analysis, Battistelli et al. (2025) highlighted the presence of an organized strip of slope instabilities that could represent the surface expression of unknown normal faults, possibly active from the Late Quaternary to present. The structures align with the fault systems outcropping at the AMB border and define a 10 km wide corridor marked by subtle evidence of recent tectonic activity, such as linear scarps and crest offsets (Castel di Sangro-Rionero Sannitico corridor, CaS-RS).

With this contribution, we made a step forward to constrain the aforementioned lineaments also in the subsurface by interpreting two commercial seismic reflection profiles (that cross-cut the CaS-RS) calibrated by two deep well (ViDEPI Project). Three geological cross sections were also drawn to cross-check the subsurface with the available geological and structural maps.

Seismic line interpretation and time-to-depth conversion pointed out normal faults that align well with the lineaments highlighted by Battistelli et al. (2025), and thus also the presence of minor extensional structures that do not seem to directly affect the topography. The estimated fault offsets range between 100 and 400 m, and increase moving from NW to SE. Tentatively assuming an age of 120-750 kyr for these offsets, the resulting fault slip rates range from 0.1 to 0.9 mm/yr.

In this peculiar geo-lithological context, we propose that faulting can be strongly influenced by the mechanical stratigraphy, producing, at the shallower structural levels, a wide area marked out by diffuse and partly off-fault deformation (sensu Ferrill et al., 2017). A complementary interpretation envisages the possibility that the CaS-RS corridor could represent a linkage zone, between fault systems with opposite dip, whose evolutionary stage has not yet led to well-developed normal fault structures and related basins.

 

Battistelli et al., 2025. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17142491

Carafa et al., 2020. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB018956

D'Agostino, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059230  

Ferrill et al., 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2016.11.010

How to cite: Battistelli, M., Carafa, M. M. C., Brozzetti, F., and Ferrarini, F.: Faults like to hide: subsurface evidence of poorly known and possibly active normal faults at the border between central and southern Apennines (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11802, 2026.

EGU26-12293 | ECS | Orals | TS3.1

New paleoseismological evidence of Late Quaternary to historical activity along the outer thrust front of the eastern Southern Alps (Polcenigo, NE Italy)  

Angela Franceschet, Maria Eliana Poli, Giulia Patricelli, Andrea Marchesini, and Giovanni Paiero

New paleoseismological and geological investigations were carried out at the Pliocene-Quaternary front of the eastern Southern Alps (ESA, NE Italy) to better constraints the activity of thrust systems propagating toward the Friuli Plain. The study focused on the Polcenigo area, located at the western margin of the Carnic Prealps, in the outer sector of the ESA, a S-SE verging active thrust-and-fold belt, in evolution from the Middle Miocene to the Present (Castellarin & Cantelli, 2000). The Carnic Prealps are characterized by a system of arched SW-NE to WSW-ENE trending, S-verging thrusts that accommodate ongoing crustal shortening of about 2-3mm/yr, as estimated by geodetic data (Serpelloni et al., 2005).

The area is characterized by moderate to high seismic hazard and risk, and experienced some historical earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6, including the earthquake of Alpago of 29th June 1873 (Imax=X MCS e Mw=6.3) and the one of Cansiglio of 18th October 1936 (Imax=VIII MCS e Mw=6.1) (Rovida et al., 2022). However, the seismogenic sources responsible for these earthquakes remain debated.

Whitin the framework of the third level Caneva-Polcenigo Seismic Microzonation Project, some paleoseismological investigations were performed along the Cansiglio-Col Longone thrust system, whose Late Quaternary tectonic activity is documented by the displacement of thick pre-LGM conglomerates (Poli et al., 2015). A trench excavated at the boundary between the LGM slope deposits of the Coltura fan and the Upper Miocene-Pliocene Molasse of the Col del Cao hill, exposed a high angle tectonic contact between the sub-horizontal Lower Molasse (Cavanella Group, Lower-Middle Miocene) and the sub-vertical Upper Molasse (Conegliano Unit, Pliocene). This structure is consistent with the Col Longone fault, interpreted as the transpressive left-lateral closure of the Caneva-Cansiglio thrust-system (280/65 dipping). The fault affects not only molasse deposits but also upper trench units dated between the XVII and the XIX sec. AD, indicating that the co-seismic effect of an historical earthquake may have been recorded in the trench stratigraphy, coherently with paleoliquefaction evidences documented in the nearby lacustrine succession of the Palù di Livenza basin (Early Holocene) (Monegato et al., 2023).

These results provide new evidence for Late Quaternary to historical activity of the outer ESA thrust front and highlight the seismogenic potential of tectonic structures at the prealpine piedmont plain, with important implications for seismic hazard assessment in the Friuli Plain.

REFERENCE

Castellarin and Cantelli (2000). Neo-Alpine evolution of the Southern Eastern Alps. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-3707(99)00036-8

Monegato et al. (2023). LGM glacial and glaciofluvial environments in a tectonically active area (southeastern Alps). https://doi.org/10.3301/GFT.2023.07

Poli et al. (2015). Seismotectonic characterization of the western Carnic pre-alpine area between Caneva and Meduno (Ne Italy, Friuli). DPC-INGV-S1 Project.

Rovida et al. (2022). Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani (CPTI15), versione 4.0. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). https://doi.org/10.13127/CPTI/CPTI15.4

Serpelloni et al. (2005). Crustal velocity and strain-rate fields in Italy and surrounding regions: new results from the analysis of permanent and non-permanent GPS networks. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02618.x

How to cite: Franceschet, A., Poli, M. E., Patricelli, G., Marchesini, A., and Paiero, G.: New paleoseismological evidence of Late Quaternary to historical activity along the outer thrust front of the eastern Southern Alps (Polcenigo, NE Italy) , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12293, 2026.

Large earthquakes in slowly deforming collision zones often occur in regions where dense near-fault seismic networks are absent at the time of rupture. As a result, the most critical events for understanding deep seismogenic processes are frequently those for which observational constraints are intrinsically limited. The Mw 6.4 Durrës earthquake of 26 November 2019, at the eastern front of the Adria–Eurasia collision in Albania, is a prime example: it occurred beneath a complex foreland basin system, with a sparse and asymmetric station geometry that challenges conventional earthquake location methods.

In this study, we address the central question: how robustly can the geometry and depth of a deep seismogenic source be constrained when observational conditions cannot be improved retroactively? We relocate the full 2019–2020 Durrës sequence (foreshocks, mainshock, and aftershocks) using the hypoDD algorithm applied to catalog differential travel times. While no waveform cross-correlation data are available, the network of differential-time links is internally well-connected, allowing relative event positions to be resolved far more precisely than absolute hypocenters.

To obtain physically meaningful uncertainty estimates beyond formal inversion errors, we adopt a stepwise pre-relocation approach, including depth quality control and jackknife station weighting. A bootstrap resampling of the differential-time equations (200 realizations) is then applied to derive full spatial probability clouds for each event. This approach reveals a fundamental asymmetry in what the data can and cannot resolve: epicentral positions and along-strike geometry are highly stable, forming a compact NW–SE-oriented cluster, whereas individual event depths are less tightly constrained. Importantly, however, the bootstrap distributions are unimodal and consistently centered at ~18–23 km, demonstrating that the sequence is rooted in a deep seismogenic layer despite kilometer-scale depth uncertainty for single events. These results show that, even under unfavorable network conditions, a combination of differential-time relocation and uncertainty-aware resampling can robustly identify the depth range, orientation, and spatial coherence of an active fault system. In the case of Durrës earthquake, this supports a deep, NE-dipping blind fault associated with the collision-front architecture of Adria beneath the Periadriatic Depression.

Beyond the specific case study, our analysis provides a framework for translating limited coseismic datasets into actionable tectonic insight and for guiding the design of future seismic and geodetic monitoring strategies in regions where damaging earthquakes have long recurrence intervals but high societal impact.

How to cite: Dushi, E. and Kastelic, V.: Robust Imaging of Deep Seismogenic Fault Geometry through Earthquake Relocation: The 2019 Durrës Sequence, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12495, 2026.

EGU26-13158 | Orals | TS3.1

From depth to surface of the 2016-2017 Central Italy earthquake sequence: integrating subsurface geology, seismicity and satellite observations 

Massimiliano Porreca, Giacomo Cenci, Riccardo Gaspari, Filippo Carboni, Maurizio Ercoli, Massimiliano Rinaldo Barchi, Claudio De Luca, Riccardo Lanari, Maddalena Michele, and Lauro Chiaraluce

The 2016-2017 Central Italy earthquake sequence offers a unique opportunity to investigate the complex interplay between deep crustal structures, seismic activity, and surface deformation. A decade after the event, we attempt to synthesize all the available multidisciplinary observations describing the evolution of the mainshocks: the Mw 6.0 Amatrice earthquake in August 2016, the Mw 6.5 Norcia and Mw 5.9 Visso earthquakes in October 2016 and the Mw 5.5 Campotosto earthquake in January 2017. This cascade of shocks activated an 80-km long system of SW-dipping normal faults, breaking the entire upper crust from 12 km depth to the surface.

We integrate multidisciplinary datasets to observe the fault system from different perspectives, spanning from deep crustal processes (seismicity) and tectonic architecture (subsurface geology) to surface expressions (outcropping geology and surface ruptures), and satellite-based observations (SAR-based techniques). The data are jointly used to investigate the structural framework, fault kinematics and deformation pattern along the fault system.

High-detailed DInSAR-based deformation maps of the three largest earthquakes are reconstructed to characterize both surface ruptures associated with major fault segments and off-fault deformation. The geometry of the main seismogenic faults at depth are reconstructed using seismicity distribution and cross-section balancing, while at surface we retrieve geological constraints including coseismic ruptures. The analysis highlights distinct rupture behaviors of individual fault segments and their specific contributions to the observed ground deformation.

Post-seismic deformation is instead investigated analyzing SBAS-DInSAR time series, together with the spatial distribution of seismicity that occurred following the sequence onset, until 2025. The results show how the hanging wall of the active fault system underwent sustained subsidence during this period, characterized by spatially variable rates.

By bridging insights from the deep subsurface to satellite-based remote sensing, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of the processes driving the 2016-2017 Central Italy earthquakes and its temporal evolution in the last decade.

How to cite: Porreca, M., Cenci, G., Gaspari, R., Carboni, F., Ercoli, M., Barchi, M. R., De Luca, C., Lanari, R., Michele, M., and Chiaraluce, L.: From depth to surface of the 2016-2017 Central Italy earthquake sequence: integrating subsurface geology, seismicity and satellite observations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13158, 2026.

Fault systems are inherently heterogeneous, with barriers and asperities exerting a first-order control on rupture propagation and on the spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity. The persistence of long-lived seismicity raises questions about whether earthquake activity is primarily governed by local structural complexities or by large-scale tectonic loading acting on simplified, homogeneous fault surfaces.

In this study, we report persistent mid-crustal seismicity in Eastern-Central Italy along the Adriatic Basal Thrust (ABT), a major compressional structure deepening westward from the Adriatic offshore to the Apennine Foothills. Its 3D geometric and kinematic architecture was reconstructed combining geological information and a high-resolution seismological dataset of relocated earthquakes and focal mechanisms (de Nardis et al., 2022). Specifically, the seismic catalogue was refined using recordings from the ReSIICO seismic network and a 3D velocity model (Cattaneo et al., 2019). The ABT extends ~210 km along strike and dips at ~20°, with its main internal splay corresponding to the Near Coast Thrust (NCT). Seismicity is unevenly distributed; while the northern sector hosts instrumental earthquakes mainly at upper crustal levels, the southern sector appears locked at the surface but accounts for ~75% of the total deep seismicity, dominated by low-magnitude events (ML mode ~0.8–0.9).

To extend the temporal perspective, we analyzed the Italian seismic catalogue over 40 years (1985–2024) (https://terremoti.ingv.it/). Fractal analysis and space–time clustering identify three persistent seismicity clusters: two shallow clusters likely related to anthropogenic processes (i.e., quarry blasts) and a third, dominant cluster consistently associated with the ABT. The spatio-temporal analysis reveals that within this tectonic cluster, ~76% of seismicity consists of non-triggered events representing background tectonic loading, with only a few moderate episodes of spatio-temporal clustering.

The remarkable long-term persistence of this activity prompted a deeper investigation into the underlying fault architecture through the high-resolution seismic catalogue. This analysis revealed that the seismicity highlights a complex structural duplex acting as a geometric asperity in the linkage zone between the ABT and the internal splay. This mid-crustal segment consists of two low-angle, west-dipping splays interconnected by high-angle ramps, forming a structural knot that hinders smooth slip. Overall, the spatial persistence, depth distribution, and geometric complexity of the microseismicity indicate that fault-scale heterogeneities and structural jams dominate over large-scale regional coupling. This implies that the continuous release of seismic energy within these complex structural nodes acts as a mechanical accommodation process, effectively controlling the segmentation and the maximum rupture potential of the entire fault system.

Cattaneo, M., Frapiccini, M., Ladina, C., Marzorati, S. & Monachesi, G. A mixed automatic-manual seismic catalog for Central-Eastern Italy: Analysis of homogeneity. Ann. Geophys. (2017).

de Nardis, R., Pandolfi, C., Cattaneo, M. et al. Lithospheric double shear zone unveiled by microseismicity in a region of slow deformation. Sci Rep 12, 21066 (2022).

How to cite: de Nardis, R. and Lavecchia, G.: Persistent Seismicity in Eastern-Central Italy: Evidence for a Complex Structural Asperity Dominating Mid-Crustal Deformation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13568, 2026.

EGU26-13980 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Influence of Source Representation on Damage Scenarios: Comparison Between Point and Finite Sources in the Intermediate Field 

Armando Garofalo, Donato Talone, Deborah Di Naccio, Angela Stallone, and Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa

This work aims to perform ground motion simulations using a simplified approach that allows fast yet accurate estimation of intensity measures (PGA, PGV, SA). The approach presented can be applied a few minutes after a strong earthquake, when knowledge of source parameters is still limited, or during the pre-emergency phase, contributing to more effective territorial planning. A similar goal can be achieved using physics-based models that account for source uncertainty. However, due to the limited time and data available immediately after an earthquake, physics-based models are not suitable for urgent computing (Stallone et al., 2025). The proposed method is based on two Python codes: HypoSmoothFaultSimulation (Di Naccio et al., 2025), a soon-to-be-released open-access software, which generates an ensemble of rupture scenarios starting from geometric and kinematic properties of the fault (length, strike, dip, depth, rake), and seismotectonic potential (magnitude). The second software, ProbShakemap (Stallone et al., 2025) computes ground shaking at different points of interest (POIs) by implementing one or more Ground Motion Models (GMMs), starting from the plausible hypocenters generated by HypoSmoothFaultSimulation. The latter code accounts for source parameter uncertainty by defining smoothed boxcar probability density functions (PDFs), which are subsequently sampled to generate the rupture scenarios. ProbShakemap accounts for both source-related and GMM-related uncertainties, producing multiple ground-shaking estimates for each POI. As a case study, the method was applied to the central Apennines, focusing on a representative sample of faults, by computing PGA maps on a regular grid, or at the location of RSN and RAN seismic stations. For the same sample of faults, the stochastic code EXSIM (Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005), which requires more detailed knowledge of source parameters and wave propagation effects, was also applied. These comparisons aim to highlight the differences between the proposed method and more complex physics-based models. It should be noted that the proposed method cannot provide reliable ground motion estimates in the near field, due to source-related effects such as velocity pulses, large peak accelerations and the effect of the vertical component, which strongly influence ground shaking close to the fault. However, the method is applicable in the intermediate field, which is still characterized by significant ground shaking during large earthquakes. Overall, this approach allows ground motion estimates to be obtained from a limited number of initial parameters while accounting for their associated uncertainty, enabling fast and simplified computation suitable for application before or immediately after a strong earthquake.

Bibliography

  • DI NACCIO, Deborah; STALLONE, Angela; MC CARAFA, Michele. The Mt. Morrone seismotectonic source: analysis of fault model uncertainty for Ground Motion Prediction. In: EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts. 2025. p. EGU25-12632.
  • Motazedian, D., Atkinson, 2005. Stochastic Finite-Fault Modeling Based on a Dynamic Corner Frequency. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 95, 995–1010. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120030207
  • STALLONE, Angela, et al. ProbShakemap: A Python toolbox propagating source uncertainty to ground motion prediction for urgent computing applications. Computers & Geosciences, 2025, 195: 105748.

How to cite: Garofalo, A., Talone, D., Di Naccio, D., Stallone, A., and Carafa, M. M. C.: Influence of Source Representation on Damage Scenarios: Comparison Between Point and Finite Sources in the Intermediate Field, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13980, 2026.

EGU26-14657 | ECS | Orals | TS3.1

3D geological and velocity modeling of the Northern Adriatic region for seismic hazard assessment 

Sarah Carcano, Lorenzo Lipparini, Irene Molinari, Giulia Sgattoni, and Licia Faenza

The Marche offshore, situated at the leading edge of the Northern Apennines compressional structures, is a key area for investigating seismic activity and its interplay with offshore operations. The Mw 5.5 earthquake of November 9, 2022, and the most recent Mw 4.2 of October 6, 2025, brought renewed attention to this region, highlighting the ongoing seismicity along frontal thrusts and reinforcing the need for detailed seismic hazard investigations in the area.

Within the framework of the SPIN project (Test delle buone pratiche per lo Studio della Potenziale INterazione tra attività offshore e pericolosità naturali - Best practice testing for the Study of Potential INteractions between offshore activities and natural hazards), the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) has built an unprecedented, high-resolution 3D geological and velocity model of the whole Northern Adriatic basin and its adjoining onshore domains.

The study adopts an integrated workflow that combines various data types, including publicly available data and, primarily, confidential 2D and 3D seismic surveys and well-log data granted by ENI S.p.A., as well as geological maps and technical reports.  Interval velocities for key seismic-stratigraphic units were estimated through analysis of check-shot and well-log velocity data, enabling a robust depth conversion. The resulting 3D geological model extends to depths of up to ~70 km, incorporating regional tomographic studies and crustal-scale geodynamic reconstructions

This comprehensive three-dimensional framework provides a precise reconstruction of the geometry and kinematics of the northern Apennine thrust front, allowing also the evaluation of the interaction between Mesozoic inherited structures and more recent compressional fault systems. This approach provides new insights into the segmentation of the thrust front and the spatial distribution of potentially seismogenic structures in this sector of the Adriatic domain.

Using the identified fault systems, the mapped surfaces, and the velocity model, seismic shaking scenarios were generated through standard ShakeMap simulations and advanced hybrid numerical methods for broadband wave propagation in heterogeneous 3D media.

The study demonstrates that multidisciplinary modeling at the crustal scale is essential for improving the reliability of seismic simulations and refining seismic hazard assessments in complex offshore-onshore contexts.

How to cite: Carcano, S., Lipparini, L., Molinari, I., Sgattoni, G., and Faenza, L.: 3D geological and velocity modeling of the Northern Adriatic region for seismic hazard assessment, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14657, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14657, 2026.

EGU26-14678 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Seismicity-Driven Insights into the Extensional Architecture of the Northern Apennines, Italy 

Marco Di Gregorio, Alessandro Vuan, Giorgia Lelj, Donato Talone, and Diana Latorre

Understanding the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity is essential for unveiling the seismotectonic architecture of active regions, as it links earthquake occurrence with the geometry, kinematics, and origin of seismogenic processes.

We investigate persistent microseismic and moderate seismic activity in the central–northern Apennines (Italy) using the CLASS (Italian Absolute Seismic Catalogue), which is based on a 3D velocity model, and applying a template matching technique following seismic clustering. From an initial dataset of ~230.000 events, we analyse a subset of 69.875 seismic events (0.0 < ML < 4.8) recorded between 2010 and 2023. Seismicity within the well-known 2016–2017 Amatrice–Visso–Norcia seismic sequence, the 2013–2015 Gubbio seismic activity and events classified as anthropogenic are excluded.

Seismic clusters are identified using the HDBSCAN algorithm, a hierarchical density-based clustering method that extends DBSCAN and is well suited for detecting clusters with variable density and shape in extensive spatial datasets. By introducing the temporal component, it is observed that HDBSCAN may produce clustering artefacts if applied to large datasets spanning long time intervals (14 years). To mitigate this effect, a Kernel Density Estimation is additionally applied to obtain more robust and well-defined spatio-temporal clusters. The analysis is performed by dividing the study area into six equal-area subregions and seven non-overlapping two-year time windows.

The resulting spatio-temporal clustering identifies 78 clusters, primarily classified as seismic swarms, distributed across the study area, with magnitudes up to ML 4.8. Most clusters exhibit spatial patterns and focal mechanisms consistent with known active faults documented in the QUIN database (QUaternary fault strain INdicator). Conversely, three groups of clusters occur in the upper crust and align along an ~100 km-long arcuate trend between the foothills south of Bologna and the Apennines west of Pesaro. In this sector, lithological conditions may hinder fault outcropping, suggesting the presence of blind faults whose activity is expressed mainly at depth, near fault roots. These clusters refine the complex architecture of the extensional domain and may indicate previously unrecognized southwest-dipping blind normal faults, or structural complexities (e.g., synthetic or antithetic structures) within the basal detachment.

The envelope of the seismic clusters reveals that the front of the Apenninic extensional domain, hosting the most significant historical and instrumental earthquakes, extends eastward beyond the outcropping west–southwest-dipping normal faults. This finding has important implications for seismic hazard assessment in the densely populated foothill areas of the Northern Apennines and contributes to a better understanding of the architecture of low-angle normal fault systems.

How to cite: Di Gregorio, M., Vuan, A., Lelj, G., Talone, D., and Latorre, D.: Seismicity-Driven Insights into the Extensional Architecture of the Northern Apennines, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14678, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14678, 2026.

EGU26-14680 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Moment Tensor Inversion Using Empirical Green’s Functions: a Methodological Approach in Complex Media for Seismotectonic and Volcanic Studies 

Anna Susini, Guido Maria Adinolfi, Francisca Guinez-Rivas, Donato Talone, and Sergio Carmelo Vinciguerra

Obtaining reliable moment tensor (MT) solutions for earthquakes is particularly challenging due to their strong dependence on station geometry, accurate hypocentral locations, and a well-constrained seismic velocity model. The estimation of seismic moment and magnitude, as well as the decomposition of the source mechanism into double-couple (DC), isotropic (ISO), and compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD) components, strongly depend on the assumed velocity model, which also controls the minimum resolvable magnitude. The limited availability of detailed three-dimensional crustal models often restricts MT inversions to low-frequency data, reducing resolution and negatively affecting both source parameter accuracy and inversion stability.

Recent improvements in seismic network coverage and instrument sensitivity have increased the resolving power, leading to a growing demand for MT solutions of progressively lower-magnitude earthquakes. This evolution imposes stricter requirements on the accuracy of 3D velocity models, which must properly represent small-scale heterogeneities, attenuation, and seismic anisotropy. In this context, Empirical Green’s Functions (EGFs) provide a practical approach to reduce the impact of simplified velocity models, empirically incorporating path and site effects, and improving high-frequency waveform fits.

In this study, we propose a methodological approach for earthquake MT inversion that includes EGFs into time-domain waveform inversion using the ISOLA code (Zahradník and Sokos, 2018). The methodology is based on the concept introduced by Plicka and Zahradník (1998), which enables the estimation of spatial derivatives of the EGF tensor directly from seismic observations, without requiring an a priori similarity among the focal mechanisms of weak earthquakes. Within this conceptual framework, a selected set of well-recorded small earthquakes within the same focal volume is first inverted for MTs using a standard waveform inversion procedure. These independently obtained MT solutions are combined with the corresponding observed waveforms to retrieve empirical Green’s tensor spatial derivatives, which are subsequently used to invert other earthquakes occurring in the same source region.

Within this framework, the use of EGFs significantly reduces modeling errors associated with simplified velocity structures and unresolved small-scale heterogeneities, while preserving sufficient resolution capability to extend MT analysis toward lower-magnitude earthquakes. The ISOLA code further enables systematic exploration of source parameters, quantitative assessment of solution quality through variance reduction and stability analysis, and consistent comparison among different inversion setups, providing an additional criterion for evaluating the reliability of the obtained solutions.

The proposed methodology is applied to the 2024–2025 seismic crisis at Campi Flegrei, a volcanically active area in Southern Italy, characterized by strong lateral heterogeneity and complex wave propagation effects. This dataset provides a representative test case to evaluate and validate the robustness of this approach under challenging geological and observational conditions, where complex rupture processes may be influenced by crustal fluids.

References

Plicka, V., and J. Zahradník (1998). Inverting seismograms of weak events for empirical Green’s tensor derivatives, Geophys. J. Int. 132, 471–478.

Zahradník, J., & Sokos, E. (2018). ISOLA code for multiple-point source modeling. In Moment tensor solutions: A useful tool for seismotectonics (pp. 1-28). Cham: Springer International Publishing.

How to cite: Susini, A., Adinolfi, G. M., Guinez-Rivas, F., Talone, D., and Vinciguerra, S. C.: Moment Tensor Inversion Using Empirical Green’s Functions: a Methodological Approach in Complex Media for Seismotectonic and Volcanic Studies, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14680, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14680, 2026.

EGU26-15087 | Posters on site | TS3.1

Seismic Array Study of the Tectonic of the Tianzhu Seismic Gap and the Deep Characteristics of the Laohushan and Maomaoshan fault 

Jiuhui Chen, Shuncheng Li, Biao Guo, Yifang Chen, and Xinzhong Yin

The Gulang Ms 8.0 strong earthquake that occurred in 1927 claimed the lives of more than 40,000 people in the surrounding areas. Geological studies have shown that the occurrence of the Gulang earthquake did not reduce the seismic hazard of the Laohushan, Maomaoshan and Lenglongling faults, which are the westward extensions of the Haiyuan Fault. Based on the seismic moment accumulation rate, the existence of the Tianzhu Seismic Gap has been proposed. This seismic gap is potentially at risk of producing earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher. Coupled with the frequent occurrence of small earthquakes in this area in recent years, it is regarded as being of considerable seismic danger. In the junction area of the Tianzhu Seismic Gap and its surrounding faults, we observed and collected dense broadband seismic array data for a period of more than 7 years. Through long-term continuous observations, the seismicity and the crustal S-wave velocity structure of the study area was obtained. The research results show that the current seismicity in the Gulang Seismic Zone distributes along the Wuwei-Tianzhu Fault with a southwestward trending feature, and does not extend to the Lenglongling Fault. This indicates that the seismogenic fault of the Gulang Earthquake may not include the Lenglongling Fault and the Jinqianghe Fault. In the Tianzhu Seismic Gap, seismicity distributes linearly along the Laohushan-Maomaoshan Fault, exhibiting obvious strike-slip fault characteristics. In terms of depth, seismic activities around the Maomaoshan Fault are concentrated in two intervals: the shallow layer above 10 km and the deep layer below 20 km, which also delineates the strong locking feature at the depth of 10–20 km beneath the Maomaoshan Fault. Obvious weak seismicity is also observed in the western segment of the Haiyuan Fault. The velocity structure results demonstrate that at the depth of the upper and middle crust, there are significant velocity differences on both sides of the Laohushan Fault, Maomaoshan Fault and Wuwei-Tianzhu Fault, and the seismic distribution is highly consistent with the boundary zones of these velocity differences. Beneath the Maomaoshan Fault and in the middle segment of the Laohushan Fault (at the upper and middle crust depth), there exist high-velocity anomalies distributed on both sides of the faults. These anomalies are inferred to be asperities that impede fault rupture, with a length of approximately 50 km and a width exceeding 20 km along the fault plane.

How to cite: Chen, J., Li, S., Guo, B., Chen, Y., and Yin, X.: Seismic Array Study of the Tectonic of the Tianzhu Seismic Gap and the Deep Characteristics of the Laohushan and Maomaoshan fault, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15087, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15087, 2026.

EGU26-15139 | Orals | TS3.1

Revealing Seismic Sequence Characteristics in the South-eastern Alps and the Western Dinarides by clustering analysis and refined location 

Piero Brondi, Matteo Picozzi, Grazia De Landro, Antonio Giovanni Iaccarino, Giuliana Rossi, Anthony Lomax, Andrea Magrin, Luigi Zampa, and Maddalena Michele

The study of the seismicity distribution in space and time is a key element for assessing seismic hazard, as earthquake occurrence is controlled by variations in crustal stress and fault loading. The identification and characterization of seismic sequences therefore represent an effective approach to investigate earthquake interaction and the activation of complex fault systems.

We analyze ten years of seismicity (2015–2024) in the South-Eastern Alps and the Western Dinarides (SEAWD), a tectonically active region characterized by moderate to high seismic hazard and by the occurrence of large historical earthquakes, including the Mw 6.5 Friuli event of 1976. The study is based on the seismic catalog of the Northeastern Italy Seismometer Network, managed by the Seismological Research Center (CRS) of the National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics – OGS.

Seismic sequences are first detected using the Zaliapin and Ben-Zion nearest-neighbor clustering technique and subsequently analyzed with the NLL-SSST Coherence algorithm, which allows a detailed reconstruction of their spatio-temporal evolution and source coherence. A total of 75 seismic sequences are identified and classified: 49 Foreshock-Mainshock-Aftershock sequences (65%), 25 Mainshock-Aftershock sequences (32%), and one swarm-type sequence. The preliminary results indicate that Mainshock-Aftershock sequences are, on average, associated with larger mainshock magnitudes compared to Foreshock-Mainshock-Aftershock sequences.

Further analyses are currently underway to refine the characterization of the detected sequences and to explore their implications for fault interaction processes.

How to cite: Brondi, P., Picozzi, M., De Landro, G., Iaccarino, A. G., Rossi, G., Lomax, A., Magrin, A., Zampa, L., and Michele, M.: Revealing Seismic Sequence Characteristics in the South-eastern Alps and the Western Dinarides by clustering analysis and refined location, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15139, 2026.

EGU26-15452 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Resolving the Deformation Style and Slip Behavior of the Castle Mountain Fault, South-Central Alaska 

Lauren Berrien, Nicolas Harrichhausen, Rob Witter, Rich Koehler, and Jens Munk

The Castle Mountain fault (CMF) is a major active fault in south-central Alaska that poses a significant seismic hazard to the Anchorage and Matanuska-Susitna Valley urban areas. Previous studies of the CMF have reached conflicting conclusions regarding its kinematics, slip behavior, and earthquake rupture history. Earlier paleoseismic, geomorphic, and geodetic studies suggested that the CMF is predominately right-lateral with slip rate values ranging from 0.07 - 3.0 mm/yr, while more recent work suggests that the CMF accommodates reverse dip-slip motion of <0.3 mm/yr (based on the long-term bedrock rate). Early studies were constrained by limited methodologies and data, such as low-resolution topographic maps. In this study, we apply modern geomorphic and geophysical methods at several sites along the CMF to reassess interpretations of its slip sense and better constrain the number and timing of past earthquake ruptures. We have completed geomorphic mapping using high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) and collected two electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) profiles at one of two designated study sites. The well-defined CMF scarp resolved in lidar DEMs allows precise placement of ERT profiles across the fault. The two profiles spanned 80 meters across the fault scarp. ERT probes measured resistivity at 5m-spacing for a deeper profile and 2m-spacing for a more detailed profile closer to the surface. Relative fault displacements along strike of the CMF will be analyzed and measured using statistical analyses of scarp heights.  Preliminary results indicate that the ERT profiles can distinguish different geologic units and fault features such as fault planes, fracture zones, and stratigraphic offsets that have strong lateral resistivity contrasts. Based on geomorphic features observed in the DEMs, our preliminary findings suggest that past earthquakes on the CMF involved predominantly reverse slip. These features include hanging-wall-grabens, south-facing scarps, folded surfaces, and left-stepping en echelon scarps superimposed on the larger scarp. To better define the slip-rate history and geometry of the CMF, we plan to collect additional ERT profiles across the scarp where it displaces various fluvial terraces. We will also describe sediment cores and soil profiles. Samples from the cores and profiles will be collected for optically stimulated luminescence and radiocarbon dating. Our results will be compared with previous interpretations and observations in the field to help resolve long-standing discrepancies in interpretations of CMF behavior and improve regional seismic hazard assessments.



How to cite: Berrien, L., Harrichhausen, N., Witter, R., Koehler, R., and Munk, J.: Resolving the Deformation Style and Slip Behavior of the Castle Mountain Fault, South-Central Alaska, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15452, 2026.

EGU26-16931 | Posters on site | TS3.1

Kinematic modeling of crustal deformation in the Caucasus territory 

Rafig Safarov, Fakhraddin Gadirov (Kadirov), Michele Carafa, and Samir Mammadov

We present the finite element neotectonic dynamic modelling of crustal deformation for the Caucasus region based on the GPS observations, seismicity and main fault configurations. The data obtained from crustal deformation monitoring made using GPS systems in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkiye, Iran and Armenia aggregated and used to determine the dynamics of the main tectonic structures. Over 215 continuous and survey mode GPS site velocities were collected from several published papers, analyzed and after a careful filtration process were involved in modelling. The traces and parameters of main active faults in the region were obtained from different open access data bases in order to constrain more accurate and solid model for the analysis. The World Stress Map database released in 2025 used to take into account the regional seismicity and to calculate the fault slip rates, strain and stress directions associated with main seismic events. Our model shows that the high accumulation of strain is predominantly concentrated along the southeastern part of the Greater Caucasus Trust Belt, eastern part of Kur depression and Absheron peninsula. Relatively low strain accumulation is observed in Lesser Caucasus. Although, there are some indications of significant strain along other main subparallel faults in the region, the large majority of the Arabia-Eurasia convergence is accommodated by the lateral movement of the crust. Since earthquakes are known usually to occur in areas of very low strain rates, it is difficult to quantify hazards in such cases. However, with auxiliary information from paleoseismology and geomorphology will possibly help to constrain better models.

How to cite: Safarov, R., Gadirov (Kadirov), F., Carafa, M., and Mammadov, S.: Kinematic modeling of crustal deformation in the Caucasus territory, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16931, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16931, 2026.

EGU26-17262 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Structural Architectures and Distribution of Active Faults in Taiwan Strait 

Sung-Ping Chang, Chi-Jhen Fan, Ho-Han Hsu, Yi-Ping Chen, Yu-Xuan Lin, Wei-Chung Han, and Song-Chuen Chen

Taiwan lies within the active arc–continent collision between the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian margin. In the Western Foothills, the foreland basin has been incorporated into the fold-and-thrust belt, with a deformation front clearly defined by onshore topography. However, the seaward extension of these structures remains poorly constrained. Neglecting faults that traverse the coastline can lead to a significant underestimation of seismic hazards. To characterize these potential seismogenic sources, we utilize high-resolution multichannel seismic reflection profiles acquired by a GI-gun system to understand the Holocene subsurface structure and quantify deformation parameters in the western offshore of Taiwan.

This study interprets key regional stratigraphic markers, including the unconformity formed during the last glacial period, to characterize fault-related folds in the offshore domain. Additionally, we developed a shallow 3-D velocity model based on semblance velocity to assess structures down to approximately 1 km depth. To provide robust evidence across the study area, we integrated offshore fault interpretations and strata offsets with onshore outcrop and borehole data. This integration allowed us to quantify fault orientation, length, dip, and vertical displacement.

Seismic interpretation shows that strata overlying thrust faults with asymmetric anticlines indicate fault-propagation folds, accompanied by noticeable uplift above the Last Glacial Maximum Unconformity. Eight major NE–SW trending thrust faults identified within the offshore deformation front likely extend more than 20 km when linked with onshore segments. Additionally, the long-term uplift rates estimated from seismic profiles are consistent with geochronological constraints from borehole data. These segment-scale fault parameters at the western offshore deformation front establish crucial parameters for offshore seismic hazard assessment and risk-informed development in northwestern Taiwan.

How to cite: Chang, S.-P., Fan, C.-J., Hsu, H.-H., Chen, Y.-P., Lin, Y.-X., Han, W.-C., and Chen, S.-C.: Structural Architectures and Distribution of Active Faults in Taiwan Strait, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17262, 2026.

EGU26-17660 | Orals | TS3.1

From long-term active tectonic model to seismic coupling: impacts of seismic hazard in the central Apennines 

Deborah Di Naccio, Cinzia Di Lorenzo, Giuseppe Falcone, Vanja Kastelic, Federica Sparacino, Leonardo Del Sole, and Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa

Fault slip rate is a key input for long-term seismic hazard models. However, fault slip behavior can vary significantly, ranging from aseismic creep to sudden rupture events during the seismic cycle. Accurately quantifying how these different slip modes partition deformation and release seismically remains a critical challenge for improving seismic hazard assessments. Thus, a rigorous probabilistic framework is required to explore uncertainties in the active fault model, including fault geometry (e.g., length, dip, seismogenic thickness), and seismotectonic potential (e.g., long-term slip rate and tectonic moment rate). This approach must also account for uncertainties in the regional seismic model, such as a tapered Gutenberg-Richter distribution.

In this context, we focus on the central Apennines, one of the most seismically active and extensively studied regions in Italy, where the largest and most frequent earthquakes occur mainly along the axis of the mountain chain. This setting has favored neotectonic studies, synthesized into a new high-quality active tectonic model (Di Naccio et al., 2025a), while the rich cultural heritage and long historical records of the region support a consistent earthquake catalog spanning several centuries.

Our findings (Di Naccio et al., 2025b) indicate that a non-marginal component of permanent deformation contributes to the long-term tectonic moment rate, with a significant impact on seismic hazard estimates. These results underscore the importance of practitioners utilizing fault-based models to explicitly account for seismic coupling when forecasting long-term seismicity.

Hazard calculations closely align with the official national hazard model, with our most probable coupling scenario reproducing the reference values. Thus, the assumption of full coupling (c≈1) is unrealistic and may critically bias hazard estimates, reinforcing the importance of robust seismic coupling assessments.

Di Naccio, D., Di Lorenzo, C., Falcone, G. , Kastelic, V., Sparacino, F., Del Sole, L., Carafa, M.M.C. (2025a)a. Active tectonic model in the central Apennines. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15970471 (2025);

Di Naccio, D., Di Lorenzo, C., Falcone, G. , Kastelic, V., Sparacino, F., Del Sole, L., Carafa, M.M.C. (2025b). The impact of long-term seismic coupling on fault-based seismic hazard models: insights from the central Apennines (Italy). npj Nat. Hazards 2, 97. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00150-y.

How to cite: Di Naccio, D., Di Lorenzo, C., Falcone, G., Kastelic, V., Sparacino, F., Del Sole, L., and Carafa, M. M. C.: From long-term active tectonic model to seismic coupling: impacts of seismic hazard in the central Apennines, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17660, 2026.

EGU26-18550 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Planktonic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O-δ¹³C anomalies reveal earthquake-triggered transient fluid flow along the active Bokkoya strike-slip fault, Alboran Sea 

Léa Vidil, Laurent Emmanuel, Elia d'Acremont, Sara Lafuerza, Sylvie Leroy, and Fabien Caroir and the ALBANEO-ALBACORE

In the Alboran Sea, oblique convergence between the African and Eurasian plates has driven the development of the active Al Idrissi-Bokkoya sinistral strike-slip fault system since ~1 Ma. Several moderate-magnitude earthquakes (Mw > 6) have been recorded along different segments of this fault system, highlighting its ongoing activity. This study investigates the dynamics of this nascent plate boundary by identifying seismic events recorded in sedimentary archives.

We focus on the Bokkoya transtensive fault system, which offsets the Small Al Idrissi Volcano and extends over ~20 km along strike. Sedimentation in this area is strongly influenced by the circulation of Deep Mediterranean Water masses, resulting in contourite deposition, and is likely punctuated by mass-movement processes triggered by seismic events.

A multidisciplinary dataset was acquired during the ALBACORE oceanographic campaign (R/V Pourquoi pas?, 2021), conducted within the framework of the ANR ALBANEO project, which aims to characterize the dynamics and seismic hazards of this emerging plate boundary. The dataset includes two 18 m-long Calypso sediment cores (ALB_CL54 and ALB_CL53) located directly above and within the subsiding basin of the main Bokkoya Fault. Analyzes include Multi-Sensor Core Logging (MSCL), X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF), Total Organic Carbon (TOC, Rock-Eval), and stable Isotope analyses (δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O), complemented by multibeam bathymetry and seismic reflection/sub-bottom profiler data.

Radiocarbon-calibrated δ¹⁸O records allow sedimentary sequences to be dated back to ~45 ka, encompassing major cold climatic intervals such as the Younger Dryas, Heinrich Stadial 1, and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The mean sedimentation rate within the subsiding basin is approximately 35 cm.kyr-1. Comparison of sedimentary successions across different fault compartments reveals pronounced contrasts during the LGM (at ~20-21 ka), when core ALB_CL54 -penetrating the fault plane- records an exceptionally high sedimentation rate (> 200 cm.kyr-1), an absence of bioturbation within contouritic deposits, and a distinct coupled δ18O- δ13C (up to ~3 ‰) anomaly not observed in the adjacent core ALB_CL53, located in the fault zone.

The restriction of the isotopic anomaly to ALB_CL54 points to a localized, transient tectonic event involving the rapid expulsion of hot fluids along the fault zone., which temporarily served as a preferential fluid drainage pathway. The absence of a similar isotopic record in ALB_CL53 suggests limited lateral fluid dissipation, consistent with a brief, high-intensity fluid release occurring during a cold climatic period associated with low sea level. These results demonstrate that coupled δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C anomalies in planktonic foraminifera constitute a robust geochemical marker of tectonic events in marine sediments, providing a complementary tool to highlight episodes of fault activity beyond the resolution of sedimentological observations.

How to cite: Vidil, L., Emmanuel, L., d'Acremont, E., Lafuerza, S., Leroy, S., and Caroir, F. and the ALBANEO-ALBACORE: Planktonic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O-δ¹³C anomalies reveal earthquake-triggered transient fluid flow along the active Bokkoya strike-slip fault, Alboran Sea, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18550, 2026.

EGU26-18578 | Posters on site | TS3.1

Multi-proxy evidence of activity of the Bokkoya fault system during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Alboran sea 

Elia d Acremont, Lea Vidil, Laurent Emmanuel, Sara Lafuerza, Fabien Caroir, Sylvie Leroy, El Mehdi Latni, and Alain Rabaute and the ALBANEO-ALBACORE team

The Alboran Basin is transected from southern Spain to northern Morocco by the active left-lateral Al Idrissi Fault Zone, whose southern termination corresponds to the Bokkoya fault system. These faults accommodate the oblique convergence between the African and Eurasian plates and the extrusion of the Betic–Rif block, generating recurrent seismicity. The Bokkoya Fault Zone lies between offshore segments that ruptured during the 1994–2004 seismic crises (Mw 5.9 and 6.3) and the 2016 and 2021 events (Mw 6.4 and 5.5). The ANR-funded ALBANEO project aims to constrain the long-term behaviour of this currently low-seismicity segment by reconstructing its activity over the last ~120 ka, with implications for regional seismic hazard assessment.

This study integrates a multi-proxy dataset from the ALBACORE marine campaign (https://doi.org/10.17600/18001351), including multibeam bathymetry, seismic reflection and sub-bottom profiles, piezocone penetration tests (CPTu), and sediment cores. Data were collected along ~20 km of the Bokkoya fault segment, from the Small Al Idrissi Volcano to Al Hoceima Bay.

Deformation is distributed across localized and diffuse fault segments with both vertical and horizontal offsets. Fault architecture evolves from north to south, controlled by relay zones and step-overs, up to the Moroccan coastline where the fault system terminates. Individual segments are on average ~5 km long, with maximum cumulative horizontal offsets of ~3 km over 1 Ma and vertical offsets of up to 32 m over the last 120 ka.

Paleoseismological analysis highlights major tectonic events during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). In the Bokkoya fault system, seismic reflection data calibrated with sediment cores and CPTu measurements indicate late- to post-LGM fault sealing on some segments, as well as in-situ disrupted seismic facies dated to the LGM. This facies is interpreted as the result of seismically induced soft-sediment deformation.

Moreover, a chaotic sedimentary facies observed between 8 and 10 m depth in core ALB_CL56 correlates with increased sediment strength derived from CPTu data and is dated between 20.9 and 20.3 ka. This facies extends over ~30 km² on sub-bottom profiles and is interpreted as a mass-transport deposit (MTD), likely triggered by a coeval seismic event. The source area is identified on the eastern shelf of the Bokkoya fault system, where submerged headscarps are observed. During the LGM (~18–24 ka), sea level was approximately 120 m lower, exposing the shelf by up to ~40 m.

The MTD and the in-situ disrupted seismic facies likely represent paleoseismic archives, consistent with recent studies documenting LGM-aged seismic events on the Bokkoya fault (Vidil et al., 2025). However, disentangling climatic forcing (sea-level changes and post-LGM warming) from tectonic triggering remains challenging. The spatial distribution of seismic clusters and paleo-fault activity suggests an immature segmentation of the plate boundary, with important implications for regional seismic hazard.

How to cite: d Acremont, E., Vidil, L., Emmanuel, L., Lafuerza, S., Caroir, F., Leroy, S., Latni, E. M., and Rabaute, A. and the ALBANEO-ALBACORE team: Multi-proxy evidence of activity of the Bokkoya fault system during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Alboran sea, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18578, 2026.

EGU26-18590 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Structural and kinematic controls on basement-influenced salt diapir geometries in the central Adriatic: Insights from 2D seismic profiles. 

Chahreddine Neji, Tvrtko Korbar, David Rukavina, Snjezana Markusic, Ana Kamenski, and Tiago Alves

The interpretation of deep 2D seismic profiles from the central Adriatic foreland of the External Dinarides in the area of the islands of Vis and Jabuka (Croatia), reveals a complex Mesozoic platform-to-basin architecture, and Cenozoic structural and sedimentary system developed on top of the central part of the Adriatic microplate (Adria). Tectonic subsidence and thick Paleogene to Neogene sedimentary loading in the latest Dinaric foredeep probably initially mobilized buried Middle Triassic evaporites from the proximal to distal foreland. Miocene tectonic is characterized by basement-rooted positive flower structures, pop-up blocks, and upward-diverging fault splays, diagnostic of a transpressional tectonic regime.

The crustal-scale Quaternary subvertical faults without apparent vertical throw are associated with positive and negative structures along the strike. In the overlying sedimentary cover, localized normal faulting and extensional arrays overprint transpressional structures, interpreted as gravitational collapse above pop-up blocks, roof collapse above ascending diapirs, and lateral collapse within a mechanically decoupled cover. The positive structures are associated with the Quaternary salt diapirs, some of which are still active. However, it is not clear which faults are inducing regional seismicity.

Instrumental seismicity is moderate to strong (up to M>5), shallow (≈5–15 km) and spatially clustered around the diapiric structures. Focal‑mechanism solutions predominantly indicate reverse to reverse–oblique faulting, yet the nodal planes do not clearly coincide with any single reverse fault imaged on 2D profiles, and many hypocenters project within or immediately above active salt diapirs. These observations suggest that salt diapirs act as mechanical and geometric controllers that focus stress and localize brittle failure on surrounding basement‑rooted faults, rather than being the primary source of seismic energy, which is difficult to reconcile with the seismic moment of M>5 events if salt flow alone were responsible.

Active salt structures are characterized by long stems and relatively small surface expressions that are aligned along Quaternary faults. Their geometry, disconnection with original depth of the Triassic evaporites, and limited lateral extent, indicate tectonic extrusion of deep evaporites. Variations and segmentation along strike, suggest localized strain and strong structural control on diapir rise. Overall, these observations indicate that diapir growth and surface expression are controlled by the interaction between deep shear zones, active faulting, and a mechanically decoupled overburden. Within this framework, seismicity reflects the interaction between deep shear zones, evaporite mobilization and upper‑crustal faulting, highlighting the need to re‑evaluate focal mechanisms with improved 3D velocity models and to explicitly incorporate salt‑controlled structures into seismic‑hazard assessments for the region.

“This work was supported by Croatian Science Foundation project SALTECTA (HRZZ-IP-2024-05-2957).”

Keywords: Central Adriatic Sea, 2D seismic profiles, Transpressional deformation, Salt diapirs, Active tectonics, Seismicity.

How to cite: Neji, C., Korbar, T., Rukavina, D., Markusic, S., Kamenski, A., and Alves, T.: Structural and kinematic controls on basement-influenced salt diapir geometries in the central Adriatic: Insights from 2D seismic profiles., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18590, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18590, 2026.

EGU26-18739 | Posters on site | TS3.1

Characterizing Low-to-Moderate Magnitude Earthquake Sequences and Seismic Sources Along the Africa–Eurasia Plate Boundary in Southern Italy 

Cristina Totaro, Thomas Mancuso, Simone Cesca, Francesco Grigoli, Debora Presti, and Barbara Orecchio

The Africa–Eurasia plate boundary extends along the southern Tyrrhenian Sea in the Sicilian offshore, representing a tectonically complex region mainly characterized by compressional to transpressional regime. Deformation is unevenly distributed along the margin, and seismicity is predominantly characterized by low-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes. The large offshore extent of the area, combined with locally unfavorable seismic network geometry, often limits the resolution of traditional seismological analyses and hampers robust seismic source characterization. In this study, we present an integrated analysis of recent seismicity along the southern Italy segment of the Africa–Eurasia plate boundary, aimed at improving the characterization of active seismic sources and their kinematics through advanced, multi-method seismological approaches. Our investigation includes (i) a regional-scale clustering analysis of earthquakes recorded between 2010 and 2025, and (ii) a detailed characterization of a recent offshore seismic sequence in the southeastern Tyrrhenian Sea. At the regional scale, we apply a density-based spatial clustering algorithm using a space–time distance metric to a high-resolution relocated earthquake catalog. Seismic clusters are subsequently classified as swarm-type or mainshock–aftershock sequences using statistical descriptors of the seismic moment distribution over time. This analysis allows us to identify spatial variations in seismic release patterns and to infer differences in fault segmentation, loading conditions, and stress transfer along the plate boundary. At the local scale, we focus on a Mw 4.7 offshore earthquake sequence and propose an integrated workflow specifically designed to enhance seismic source characterization in offshore environments. The methodology combines Bayesian absolute hypocenter location, machine-learning-based phase picking and event detection, distance geometry solvers for relative relocation, and probabilistic moment tensor inversion. This approach resolves source geometry, fault orientation, and slip kinematics despite non-optimal network conditions, providing robust constraints on active fault planes. Overall, our results demonstrate that advanced, integrated seismological methods significantly improve the characterization of active seismic sources along the Africa–Eurasia plate boundary, offering new insights into fault behavior and deformation processes in offshore and structurally complex regions.

How to cite: Totaro, C., Mancuso, T., Cesca, S., Grigoli, F., Presti, D., and Orecchio, B.: Characterizing Low-to-Moderate Magnitude Earthquake Sequences and Seismic Sources Along the Africa–Eurasia Plate Boundary in Southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18739, 2026.

EGU26-18938 | Orals | TS3.1

Progressive eastward rupture of the Main Marmara fault toward Istanbul 

Marco Bohnhoff, Patricia Martinez-Garzon, Xiang Chen, Dirk Becker, Sebastian Nunez-Jara, Recai Kartal, Elif Turker, Georg Dresen, Yehuda Ben-Zion, Jorge Jara, Fabrice Cotton, Filiz Kadirioglu, and Tugbay Kilic

The Main Marmara fault (MMF) in northwestern Türkiye poses the highest seismic risk in broader Europe. The 2025 MW 6.2 was the largest earthquake along the MMF in >60 years. We integrated observations from multiple temporal scales including the decade-long evolution of M > 5 earthquakes, their rupture dynamics and aftershock patterns. We show a series of eastward propagating M>5 events and a gradual eastward partial rupture of the MMF over the last ~15 years. The seismically active portion of the fault includes creeping and transitional segments with some of the most recent seismicity located near the presumably locked Princes Islands segment south of Istanbul that has the potential to generate a M~7 earthquake. Our analysis highlights the necessity of real-time monitoring of this part of the MMF. 

How to cite: Bohnhoff, M., Martinez-Garzon, P., Chen, X., Becker, D., Nunez-Jara, S., Kartal, R., Turker, E., Dresen, G., Ben-Zion, Y., Jara, J., Cotton, F., Kadirioglu, F., and Kilic, T.: Progressive eastward rupture of the Main Marmara fault toward Istanbul, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18938, 2026.

EGU26-19302 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Assessing Active Fault Mapping Gaps in Southern California Using Co-Seismic Surface Rupture Characteristics 

Isabelle Rocamora, James Hollingsworth, Sophie Giffard-Roisin, Léa Pousse-Beltran, and Yehuda Ben-Zion

Active fault mapping is an essential tool for predicting future surface ruptures. However, many earthquakes occur along unknown or partially mapped faults, even in “well-mapped” seismically active regions. This phenomenon is particularly evident in Southern California, as demonstrated by several surprising events, including: Ridgecrest 2019, El Mayor Cucapah 2010, Hector Mine 1999, Landers 1992, and Kern County 1952. Following these earthquakes on unmapped faults, it is often possible to find evidence suggesting pre-earthquake ruptures with paleoseismological studies. Thus, gaps in fault mapping may result from a lack of visible surface ruptures or from subtle signs that are challenging to identify. Recognizing these faults, despite weak signals in the landscape, is crucial for better predicting future shallow earthquakes and their potential impacts on human infrastructure. To understand why evidence of surface ruptures may disappear in certain fault sections, it is essential to learn how these ruptures develop following an earthquake.

The advent of very high-resolution satellite imaging, combined with image correlation techniques, presents new opportunities for characterizing the morphology of co-seismic surface ruptures. This study aims to investigate whether a systematic relationship exists between pre-earthquake fault mapping and the characteristics of observed co-seismic surface ruptures. Specifically, we search to determine whether faults mapped before a rupture exhibit statistically different co-seismic displacements or near-field deformation characteristics compared to unmapped faults, and whether ruptures lacking clear pre-event geomorphological expression display distinct signatures. We begin by analyzing the co-seismic surface rupture of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake and comparing the rupture characteristics with pre-event fault mapping obtained from the USGS database. This analysis will then be extended to the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes to evaluate the robustness and generality of the observed patterns across multiple large strike-slip events. For each earthquake, we construct dense datasets sampled along the surface ruptures, integrating morphological information derived from 2-meter resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) and displacement measurements obtained through 1-meter image correlation. We employ an unsupervised machine learning approach, specifically a hierarchical clustering, to group rupture segments based on their similarities across various parameters.

This methodology enables us to identify distinct classes of surface rupture behavior and evaluate how their distribution relates to pre-existing faults across different earthquakes. Our analyses reveal a strong correlation between the presence of pre-seismic geomorphic signal and lithology, as well as the intensity of co-seismic displacement. We found that more erosion-prone sediments and regions with smaller co-seismic displacement tend to show limited geomorphic expression prior to the earthquake. Additionally, some subtle pre-earthquake geomorphic signals can indeed be detected and mapped using very high-resolution satellite imagery. One initial approach to enhance fault mapping practices would be to utilize very high-resolution imagery, particularly in arid and sedimentary regions.

How to cite: Rocamora, I., Hollingsworth, J., Giffard-Roisin, S., Pousse-Beltran, L., and Ben-Zion, Y.: Assessing Active Fault Mapping Gaps in Southern California Using Co-Seismic Surface Rupture Characteristics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19302, 2026.

EGU26-19561 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

A revised seismotectonic model for the Albstadt Shear Zone, Southwest Germany 

Sarah Moser, Ritter Joachim, and Brüstle Andrea

The Swabian Jura near the town Albstadt is one of the seismically most active regions of Germany. Concerning tectonics, the region is characterized by a NW-SE striking shallow (<2-3 km) aseismic graben structure, the Hohenzollerngraben (HZG), and the seismically active Albstadt Shear Zone (ASZ), a NNE-SSW striking sinistral strike-slip fault zone at about 1-18 km depth. The ASZ has an extension of at least 50 km, but there is no evidence for surface rupture. Beside the continuous low-magnitude seismic activity, in the 20th century eight earthquakes with ML>5.0 occurred causing significant damage in the region of the Swabian Jura.

Here, we search for and then analyze very low-magnitude earthquake sequences during 2018 to 2020 in the area of the ASZ to image the seismically active faults. We apply a template matching detection routine, determine relative event locations for the identified earthquake sequences, calculate fault plane solutions based on first motion polarities and finally moment tensor solutions of earthquakes with ML greater than 3.5.

We identified six earthquake sequences and image three types of seismically active faults in the area of the town Albstadt. First, the known ASZ, with NNE-SSW striking sinistral strike-slip faulting at 5-10 km depth. Second, a so far not observed NW-SE striking dextral strike-slip fault at 11-15 km depth, beneath the HZG. A continuation with depth of the HZG surface faults is unlikely, but the co-location of the HZG and the NW-SE striking fault may indicate an inherited zone of weakness below the HZG. And finally, complex faulting in form of NNW-SSE striking sinistral strike-slip and normal faulting in 9-12 km depth indicating a heterogeneous deformation zone at the intersection of the ASZ and the newly discovered NW-SE striking fault zone.

Our results go into a revised seismotectonic model for the area of the ASZ, including two new types of seismically active faults in the area.

How to cite: Moser, S., Joachim, R., and Andrea, B.: A revised seismotectonic model for the Albstadt Shear Zone, Southwest Germany, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19561, 2026.

EGU26-19789 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.1

Thermo-petrological constraints on seismic velocities of the Adria lower crust 

Federica Amoroso, Vanja Kastelic, Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa, Maria Camila Lopez Suarez, Sergio Carmelo Vinciguerra, Beatrice Santarelli, and Alberto Zanetti

The Adria microplate represents the main geodynamic driver in the central Mediterranean, and its interaction with the surrounding plates controls the distribution of stress, strain and seismicity across the adjacent domains. In this context, the geometry and thermal structure of the lithosphere play a key role in partitioning the deformation across the Tyrrhenian–Apennines–Adriatic system. However, these properties remain poorly constrained by direct observations. Here, we address this problem through thermo-petrological forward modelling constrained by geophysical data aimed at quantifying lateral variations in lower-crustal seismic velocities.

The modelling was performed along a profile across the central Apennines, constructed using a structural and density model of the crust and upper mantle. The profile was sampled at multiple points to derive geothermal and lithostatic gradients from heat-flow and density data, thereby constraining pressure-temperature conditions along the section. Moho depth and its associated uncertainties were incorporated into the pressure-temperature estimates.

We adopted pyroxenite, peridotite, and metagabbro samples from well-exposed natural analogues as proxies for the lower crust and upper mantle of the Adria lithosphere. For each lithology, stable mineral assemblages, phase proportions, elastic properties and seismic velocities were computed as a function of pressure and temperature using the thermodynamic and elastic modelling code Perple_X (Connolly, 2005).

Calculations were performed using a mantle-oriented thermodynamic database and complemented by a sensitivity test based on an alternative parametrization optimized for crustal petrology, to quantify how differences in thermodynamic databases affect phase assemblages and the resulting seismic velocities.

Modelled P- and S- wave velocities were compared with independent laboratory measurements on representative rocks and with regional seismic tomography to assess the consistency between mineral assemblages, seismic velocities and independent constraints, indicating that the adopted thermo-petrological structure provides a realistic representation of the Adria lower crust and upper mantle.

References

Connolly JAD (2005). Computation of phase equilibria by linear programming: A tool for geodynamic modeling and its application to subduction zone decarbonation. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 236:524-541.

How to cite: Amoroso, F., Kastelic, V., Carafa, M. M. C., Lopez Suarez, M. C., Vinciguerra, S. C., Santarelli, B., and Zanetti, A.: Thermo-petrological constraints on seismic velocities of the Adria lower crust, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19789, 2026.

EGU26-20203 | Posters on site | TS3.1

Seismotectonics of the Central-Southern Apennines Junction (Italy): New Insights from High-Quality Background Seismicity Data 

Luigi Improta, Samer Bagh, Diana Latorre, Alessandro Marchetti, Pasquale De Gori, Luisa Valoroso, Francesco Pio Lucente, Gaetano Riccio, Stefania Pucillo, Rocco Cogliano, Fabio Criscuoli, Mauro Buttinelli, Francesco Maesano, Roberta Maffucci, Giuseppe Vico, Gerardo Romano, Agata Siniscalchi, Raju Khasi, and Paolo Marco De Martini

The junction between the central and southern Apennines represents a high-seismic-hazard region in the Mediterranean. Its seismotectonic setting is characterized by a complex, poorly understood interplay between SW-NE regional extension along the range axis and E-W mid-to-lower crustal shear zones in the Adria plate to the east. Although the range axis hosted several M6-7 historical earthquakes, their causative faults remain mostly debated. Monitoring by the Italian National Seismic Network (Rete Sismica Nazionale, RSN), with a station spacing of 10-30 km and a detection threshold of about ML1.2 in the region, has proved insufficient to pinpoint and fully characterize source faults for recent low-to-moderate magnitude (M < 4) sequences.

To address these limitations, we conducted the first comprehensive study of background seismicity as part of the MOSAICMO project, an inter-disciplinary initiative investigating tectonic evolution and seismogenesis of this region. This study integrates a 2-year passive seismic experiment (2023-2025) with a re-analysis of the 2016-2022 RSN seismicity. Our objectives were to improve knowledge of the active faults and relationship between seismogenesis and physical properties of the crustal rocks. The seismic experiment integrated 13 temporary stations with 20 permanent stations of the RSN over an area of 60x60 km2, reducing station spacing to 4-12 km. Initial analysis of the first nine months of the new dataset using a standard STA/LTA algorithm identified 470 events (0.2 < ML < 2.8), representing a 220% increase over the RSN catalog. For these earthquakes, P-and S-phases were manually picked. For the 2016-2022 seismicity, we revised and augmented the phase picks for 1,400 selected events and applied cross-correlation template matching to a prolonged swarm-like sequence (2016-2017; Mw 4.3) to produce a high-resolution catalog.

We utilized these phase picks to construct catalogs, through: i) absolute locations using the probabilistic location software NonLinLoc and a new optimized 1D velocity model, based on a non-linear approach ii) high-precision relative locations using the double-difference technique HypoDD; iii) absolute 3D re-locations alongside with Vp and Vp/Vs crustal models derived from Local Earthquake Tomography on a 3 × 3 × 2 km grid.

Our results show that seismicity deepens eastward, from 3–12 km beneath the inner range to 15–22 km under the outer range. While the upper crust exhibits mixed extensional and strike-slip focal mechanisms, deeper eastern events are almost exclusively strike-slip. Most seismicity occurs in small, short-lived clusters. Along the inner range, seismicity concentrates at 5-10 km depth within high-Vp (6.0-6.7 km/s), low-Vp/Vs (1.70-1.85) zones. Here, high-precision relocations reveal NW-striking, NE-dipping alignments consistent with known Quaternary normal faults. Integrating these results with a subsurface geological model based on seismic commercial profiles and exploration wells, and a 2D magnetotelluric tomography, we find that: (i) axial seismicity is mainly hosted within the high-velocity, high-resistivity Mesozoic carbonates of the Apulia Platform, (ii) the 2016–2017 swarm-like seismicity also clusters within the Apulian Platform but correlates with a low-resistivity anomaly, suggesting a fluid-driven seismogenic mechanism.

How to cite: Improta, L., Bagh, S., Latorre, D., Marchetti, A., De Gori, P., Valoroso, L., Lucente, F. P., Riccio, G., Pucillo, S., Cogliano, R., Criscuoli, F., Buttinelli, M., Maesano, F., Maffucci, R., Vico, G., Romano, G., Siniscalchi, A., Khasi, R., and De Martini, P. M.: Seismotectonics of the Central-Southern Apennines Junction (Italy): New Insights from High-Quality Background Seismicity Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20203, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20203, 2026.

EGU26-21084 | Posters on site | TS3.1

Geological Structure and Neotectonic Fabric of the Amyntaio Basin, NW Greece: The Correlation Between Fault Systems and Ground Fissures 

Haralambos Kranis, Emmanouil Skourtsos, Christos Filis, Emmanouil Andreadakis, Elina Kapourani, Christos Roumpos, Petros Kostaridis, and Georgios Louloudis

This study focuses on the investigation of the geological and neotectonic conditions of the Amyntaio Basin, with a particular emphasis on the recent geological formations that host the region’s primary aquifers. Understanding the stratigraphy and tectonic structure is considered essential, as these formations serve as the primary water source for domestic, agricultural, and industrial requirements. The basin fill consists of thick Neogene and Quaternary sediments deposited unconformably over the Mesozoic basement. Dominating these deposits is the lignite-bearing series, while the overlying Quaternary formations are distinguished into the lower coarse-grained Proastio Formation, characterized by conglomerates and sands, and the upper finer-grained Perdikka Formation, which primarily includes marls and clays. Significant importance is attributed to modern alluvial deposits, which cover most of the basin and directly influence the hydrogeodynamic system. In the central part of the basin, near Lake Chimaditida, up to six-meter-thick layers of peat and organic silt occur, while the northwestern sector is dominated by the extensive alluvial fan of Sklithro.

Structural mapping revealed a dense fault fabric compatible with the current extensional stress regime of the area, dominated by normal faults striking NE-SW to ENE-WSW. The primary structures include the Vegoritida fault zone, which terminates at the northern boundary of the Amyntaio mine, the Chimaditida fault, which is likely connected to the Vegoritida system, and the Anargyroi fault, which defines the southern margin of the sub-basin. The combination of these structures creates a second-order tectonic graben where Lake Chimaditida has developed, while the Amyntaio mine area is situated within a fault transfer zone. Within the mine itself, the tectonic fabric consists of smaller normal faults following the same primary orientation, creating a complex horst and graben system.

One of the main conclusions of this study is the systematic geographical distribution and geometry of the mapped ground fissures. The orientation of these fissures coincides with the primary direction of the regional neotectonic fabric, specifically following the trends of the Petres-Sklithro and Anargyroi fault systems. Their kinematics align with the general tectonic extensional regime, suggesting a clear genetic relationship between active faults and surface ruptures. In certain areas, such as the one west of the mine, between the settlements of Anargyroi and Valtonera, the traces of the mapped faults practically coincide with the observed fissures. Furthermore, the alignment of these outcropping structures, between Valtonera and Rodona, confirms the existence of the Valtonera Fault. This structure constitutes an integral part of the neotectonic fabric and is identified as the primary factor responsible for the magnitude of the ground deformation phenomena within the settlement.

How to cite: Kranis, H., Skourtsos, E., Filis, C., Andreadakis, E., Kapourani, E., Roumpos, C., Kostaridis, P., and Louloudis, G.: Geological Structure and Neotectonic Fabric of the Amyntaio Basin, NW Greece: The Correlation Between Fault Systems and Ground Fissures, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21084, 2026.

EGU26-21328 | Posters on site | TS3.1

Re-evaluation of seismogenic faults in the southern Vienna Basin from seismogenic depth to the surface 

Maria-Theresia Apoloner, Esther Hintersberger, Bernhard Salcher, Kurt Decker, Theresa Klaus, and Stefan Weginger

The southern Vienna Basin, a Miocene pull-apart structure formed along the sinistral Vienna Basin Transfer Fault System (VBTFS) extending from the Eastern Alps to the Western Carpathians, exhibits negative flower structures with strike-slip and branching normal faults. Miocene basin subsidence and sedimentation produced up to 5 km thick sedimentary sequences overlying the pre-Neogene basement. Quaternary and recent tectonic activity, documented by instrumentally recorded and historical seismic events as well as focal mechanisms of selected earthquakes, in addition to paleoseismological data showing evidence for prehistoric earthquakes of magnitudes up to ~ 6.8, confirms ongoing sinistral motion and normal faulting.

We present here a comprehensive overview of the seismotectonics of the Vienna Basin, integrating earthquake information, such as high-precession relocation of hypocenters, focal mechanisms and historical earthquake information together with fault information from industrial seismic campaigns, geological mapping and geomorphological studies.

The seismological characteristics are presented based on the Austrian Earthquake Catalog (AEC) of GeoSphere Austria. Suitable earthquakes that occurred after 2006 were relocated using two methods. For further analysis, the most accurate available locations were combined to obtain a complete picture of earthquake distribution. Five existing focal mechanism solutions of earthquakes were recalculated and further used to determine the recent stress field. The fault information is compiled into two datasets attributed with information on fault activity, kinematics, and displacement: surface fault traces and fault traces at the base of the Vienna Basin. The faults of both datasets are sorted into fault systems in order to correlate the fault information from both datasets.

This newly compiled seismotectonic dataset allows a systematic study comparing earthquake occurring in more than 5 km depth and faults, documented either at depths of 1-3 km by industrial seismic campaigns or at the surface by geological and geomorphological mapping in order to re-evaluate the most seismically active faults in the Vienna Basin. Despite the wealth of available information, uncertainties remain in the data, as well as additional ambiguities arising from the combination of geological and seismological data.

How to cite: Apoloner, M.-T., Hintersberger, E., Salcher, B., Decker, K., Klaus, T., and Weginger, S.: Re-evaluation of seismogenic faults in the southern Vienna Basin from seismogenic depth to the surface, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21328, 2026.

Oceanic transform faults (TFs) are fundamental elements of plate tectonics and have traditionally been viewed as conservative strike-slip boundaries. Seafloor observations and numerical modeling suggest the existence of extensional stress, however how it manifest at depth remains unknown. Moreover, slow-slipping TFs are often associated with thin crust and possible exposures of serpentinised peridotite near the seafloor. Here we apply full waveform inversion (FWI) to a 12-km offset seismic dataset across the Romanche TF, the largest TF on the Earth. The TF along our profile contains 20-km-wide 6 km deep valley with inward steeply dipping bounding faults. Given the steep seafloor topography, we first enhance the refracted waves by applying source-receiver reciprocity and downward continuation to the surface streamer data to mimic an ocean bottom cable survey geometry. We then perform trace-normalized FWI to derive a high-resolution crustal model. Our results reveal low P-wave velocity in the upper 3 km, suggestive of basaltic origin, and no evidence for high velocities characteristic of serpentinised peridotite beneath the valley floor. Moreover, we image inward dipping normal faults extending down to ~4 km depth below the seafloor, forming a flower-like structure. Regional earthquake data reveal both strike-slip and normal-faulting, with strike-slip hypocenters aligning with interpreted faults. These features suggest that the Romanche TF resembles a trans-tensional regime with a deep-rooted strike-slip fault in the middle, and complex faulting in the transform valley, accommodating both plate-scale and local strain deformation.

How to cite: Guo, P. and Singh, S.: Seismic Evidence for Trans-Tensional-Regime at the Romanche Oceanic Transform Fault in the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21531, 2026.

EGU26-789 | ECS | Orals | TS3.4

Temperature insensitive viscous deformation limits megathrust seismogenesis 

Liam Moser, Camilla Cattania, and Matěj Peč

Three models have been proposed to explain the downdip limit of the subduction seismogenic zone. The first is a temperature-controlled transition in rate-and-state frictional properties between 350-510°C, which inhibits earthquake nucleation. The second places the limit at the frictional and viscous failure envelope intersection. The third combines thermal and lithological controls, where ‘warm’ subduction zones are controlled by a 350°C frictional transition and ‘cold’ subduction zones are limited by the overriding plate Moho. To evaluate these hypotheses, we integrate thermal models with seismicity catalogs from 17 subduction zones. Observed depth limits remain remarkably consistent (~50 km) across a temperature range exceeding 250°C, indicating that the temperature-controlled rate-and-state friction model cannot fully explain observed depths. While warm subduction zones can be reasonably explained as a rate-and-state stability transition, the overriding plate Moho in cold subduction zones is too shallow, challenging the combined thermal-lithological model. To test the frictional-viscous model, we analyze power law creep and low-temperature plasticity for quartz, feldspar, olivine, antigorite, and talc. We find that power law creep in any tested mineral is overly temperature sensitive. In contrast, wet olivine, antigorite, and talc low-temperature plasticity fits observed depth limits to a ~6 km misfit. However, only talc is consistent with the weak megathrust paradigm of effective friction coefficients <0.1 and shear strengths of tens of MPa. We conclude that a frictional-viscous transition with a weak and temperature-insensitive viscous mechanism, such as talc low-temperature plasticity, is most consistent with the downdip seismicity limit and constraints on megathrust strength.

How to cite: Moser, L., Cattania, C., and Peč, M.: Temperature insensitive viscous deformation limits megathrust seismogenesis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-789, 2026.

EGU26-2142 | Orals | TS3.4

Average earthquake stress-drop values delineate variations in fault strength in the Northeastern Japan Arc 

Armin Dielforder, Gian Maria Bocchini, Rebecca M. Harrington, and Elizabeth S. Cochran

Standard models of lithospheric strength indicate an increase in frictional fault strength with depth. The dependence suggests that also earthquake stress-drop (Δσ) values may increase with depth, if the stress release scales with the stress on the fault. However, the range of uncertainty in Δσ values and the lack of constraints on stress in the lithosphere make it difficult to establish how stress drop, fault strength and depth are related. Here we present the main outcomes of a recent study (Bocchini et al., 2025), in which we investigated the Δσ dependence on depth and fault strength based on 11 years of seismicity in the Northeastern Japan Arc following the 2011 M9 Tohoku-Oki megathrust earthquake. We show that Δσ values increase with depth within the seismically active upper 60 km of the lithosphere by about 0.08 MPa/km. Furthermore, a comparison of the Δσ values with quantitative fault-strength estimates from finite-element models reveals that the Δσ values systematically increase with fault strength and that earthquakes within the study region release, on average, 10-30 % of the shear stress on the fault. Our results support the hypothesis that stress drop increases with fault strength, but also show that fault strength increases significantly less with depth than in standard models. Our findings further imply that temporal variations in average Δσ values may reflect changes in fault strength. In northeastern Japan, Δσ values remained roughly constant in the decade following the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, suggesting only small changes in fault strength since the mainshock.

 

Bocchini, G.M., Dielforder, A., Kemna, K.B., Harrington, R.M., Cochran, E.S. (2025). Earthquake stress-drop values delineate spatial variations in maximum shear stress in the Japanese forearc lithosphere. Communications earth & environment 6. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02877-y

How to cite: Dielforder, A., Bocchini, G. M., Harrington, R. M., and Cochran, E. S.: Average earthquake stress-drop values delineate variations in fault strength in the Northeastern Japan Arc, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2142, 2026.

EGU26-5275 | Posters on site | TS3.4

Could a deep earthquake cluster under Northeast China be associated with transformational faulting in an old Pacific slab? 

František Gallovič, Hana Čížková, Jiří Zahradník, Vladimír Plicka, Junqing Liu, and Craig R. Bina

Deep‐focus earthquakes and their association with metastable olivine wedges (MOWs) remain enigmatic. Here, we perform a seismic-geodynamic analysis of the Pacific slab, which is stagnant at the 660 km deep bottom of the mantle transition zone. We investigate deep earthquakes with moment magnitudes (Mw) ranging from 5.3 to 6.9 from 2009 to 2017. They exhibit only minor (mostly implosive) isotropic components, yet they display strongly varying CLVD components. For the largest studied earthquake (Mw 6.9, 2010-02-18), we demonstrate significant stress-drop heterogeneity on a subhorizontal fault and a spatial change in radiation efficiency. We interpret the earthquakes with an evolutionary numerical subduction model with realistic mineralogy and rheology, including non‐uniform plate aging and subduction disruption due to the Izanagi–Pacific ridge sinking in the early Cenozoic. This process resulted in a present-day slab with a bent tip that agrees with tomography. The slab maintains low temperatures (900-1000 K), allowing the presence of a metastable olivine and thus potentially forming MOW with a correspondingly bent geometry. The accompanying internal deformation controls the deep seismicity in the slab tip with apparent changes in seismic radiation efficiency and rupture speed across the modeled temperature gradients. From a broader perspective, the MOW contortion may contribute to deformational anisotropy in the shallow lower mantle. Our results underscore the importance of joint interpretations of the evolutionary subduction models and seismic source inversions.

Reference:

Liu, J., Zahradník, J., Plicka, V., Gallovič, F., Bina, C. R., Čížková, H. (2025). Deep-Focus Earthquakes Under Northeast China—An Imprint of the Complex Tectonic History of Pacific Plate Subduction, J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 130, e2024JB030215. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030215.

How to cite: Gallovič, F., Čížková, H., Zahradník, J., Plicka, V., Liu, J., and Bina, C. R.: Could a deep earthquake cluster under Northeast China be associated with transformational faulting in an old Pacific slab?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5275, 2026.

EGU26-6016 | ECS | Orals | TS3.4

Three-plate Dynamics of the Andean Earthquake Cycle 

Mara A. Figueroa, Demián D. Gómez, Michael G. Bevis, Robert Smalley, Jr., Andrés Folguera, Silvana Spagnotto, W. Ashley Griffith, Bennett Kellmayer, Dana Caccamise II, Eric Kendrick, and Patrick Smith

The South-Central Andes topography results from a three-plate framework, where the Andean block is compressed between the Nazca plate to the west and the South American craton to the east. Interseismic GNSS observations consistently show that basal décollements beneath the eastern fold-and-thrust belts accommodate permanent shortening through aseismic thrust creep. However, their behavior during great megathrust earthquakes has remained poorly understood.

We combine constraints from the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake with previous evidence from the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel and the 1995 Mw 8.0 Antofagasta earthquakes and demonstrate that basal décollements systematically creep in a normal sense during the coseismic phase. This backsliding occurs as a mechanical response to abrupt stress changes from megathrust rupture: the direction of décollement slip during earthquakes is opposite to their interseismic motion.

By integrating these coseismic observations with independent three-plate interseismic models, we present a unified framework for Andean orogenic-wedge dynamics that reconciles forearc-to-backarc deformation. This framework provides the first comprehensive explanation for the long-observed obliqueness deficiency in Andean megathrust slip distributions. Our results demonstrate that three-plate models are essential for accurately capturing both long-term orogenesis and the complete earthquake cycle, representing a paradigm shift from conventional two-plate approaches with broad implications for other subduction boundary zones and seismic hazard assessment worldwide.

 

How to cite: Figueroa, M. A., Gómez, D. D., Bevis, M. G., Smalley, Jr., R., Folguera, A., Spagnotto, S., Griffith, W. A., Kellmayer, B., Caccamise II, D., Kendrick, E., and Smith, P.: Three-plate Dynamics of the Andean Earthquake Cycle, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6016, 2026.

EGU26-6139 | ECS | Orals | TS3.4

Pore-pressure diffusion controls upper-plate aftershocks following the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique earthquake (northern Chile) 

Carlos Peña, Oliver Heidbach, Sabrina Metzger, Bernd Schurr, Marcos Moreno, Jonathan Bedford, Onno Oncken, and Claudio Faccenna

Upper-plate aftershocks following megathrust earthquakes can pose severe time-dependent hazard because they often occur close to densely populated regions, increasing the risk to structures already weakened by the mainshock. Although aftershock rates commonly follow Omori–Utsu temporal decay, the physical mechanisms controlling their non-linear time dependency and the diversity of faulting styles in the upper plate remain unclear. Because coseismic static stress transfer cannot explain this time dependency, transient postseismic processes — afterslip, viscoelastic relaxation, and fluid-driven pore-pressure diffusion — are potential candidates.

Here, we combine comprehensive seismological and geodetic observations with a 4D (space–time) hydro-mechanical numerical model to identify the dominant postseismic stress-change process controlling upper-plate aftershocks of the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique megathrust earthquake in northern Chile. We reproduce GNSS-observed postseismic deformation during the first nine months and separate the contributions from afterslip, viscoelastic relaxation, and poroelastic deformation in both horizontal and vertical components. In particular, poroelastic deformation contributes substantially to the near-field vertical signal. We then compute spatiotemporal Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) changes for each process and compare them to the distribution of upper-plate aftershocks.

Our results show that CFS changes driven by coseismically induced pore-pressure changes best explain the observed aftershock pattern in both space and time. Furthermore, increasing pore pressure reduces effective normal stress largely independent of fault orientation, promoting failure across a broad range of faulting styles, consistent with observed focal-mechanism diversity. This implies that time-independent elastic ΔCFS calculations on optimally oriented faults may be insufficient to assess the response of upper-plate faults to megathrust earthquakes, and that transient, pore-pressure stress changes must be considered. Overall, our results link postseismic deformation, stress transfer, and pore-fluids in the upper plate, and provide a basis for physics-based, time-dependent aftershock forecasting constrained by forearc hydraulic properties.

How to cite: Peña, C., Heidbach, O., Metzger, S., Schurr, B., Moreno, M., Bedford, J., Oncken, O., and Faccenna, C.: Pore-pressure diffusion controls upper-plate aftershocks following the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique earthquake (northern Chile), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6139, 2026.

EGU26-7591 | ECS | Orals | TS3.4

Measuring the fine-scale segmentation of the subduction megathrust in situ 

Jannes Münchmeyer, William Frank, David Marsan, Bernd Schurr, and Anne Socquet

The subduction megathrust and its frictional properties are central to controlling the short- and long-term dynamics of subduction zones. While the frictional properties are largely controlled by the 3D structure of the megathrust interface, our understanding of this structure is limited. Exhumed outcrops provide evidence for a complex mélange of ductile and brittle materials, which is segmented in a fractal manner. However, for active subduction zones, we lack direct evidence for such fine-scale structural segmentation as well as quantitative constraints on the segmentation structure.

Here, we use two high-resolution earthquake catalogs from the South American subduction margin to characterize the fine-scale segmentation in situ. We show that two overlying processes govern the fractal distribution of earthquake hypocenters. At short time scales, aftershock clustering dominates the earthquake distribution. At long time scales, averaging over many mainshock-aftershock sequences, the underlying structure shows. However, with typical catalog durations of only a few years, it is crucial to infer structure from short-term catalogs as well. We show, both theoretically and in our observational data, that even in short-term catalogs, structural constraints can be derived by looking at near-field interactions (< 100 m).

Based on our analysis, we find a fractal segmentation of the subduction interface in Northern Chile and Southern Peru with a fractal dimension D=1.6-1.7. This is consistent with the fractal distribution of brittle inclusions in exhumed outcrops. Notably, the fractal distribution is stable down to the hypocenter uncertainty (< 10 m), suggesting self-similarlity over several orders of length. We find an increase in fractal dimension with depth, suggesting a more uniform interface in the downdip region. This work provides a method to gain direct insights into the structure of the subduction interface and systematically quantify it. This way, we aim to connect structural observations to frictional properties and large scale dynamics.

How to cite: Münchmeyer, J., Frank, W., Marsan, D., Schurr, B., and Socquet, A.: Measuring the fine-scale segmentation of the subduction megathrust in situ, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7591, 2026.

EGU26-7613 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Unveiling Crustal Heterogeneities in the Central Andes: A High-Resolution Density Model Derived from Integrated Gravity and Seismic Modeling 

Tilman May, Judith Bott, and Magdalena Scheck-Wenderoth

Understanding the coupled multi-scale geodynamic and tectonic processes related to the subduction of the oceanic Nazca Plate beneath the South American Plate is one pre-requisite to better assess seismic hazards in the region. It is essential to identify all relevant forces and related stress-strain relationships within the subduction system, such as the negative buoyancy of the subducting slab or the degree of mechanical coupling between the Andean domain and the Pampean foreland. We approach this by investigating the present-day physical, in particular rheological state of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system, including first-order variations in pressure, temperature, and rock composition as constrained by multi-disciplinary observations.

This study integrates gravity, active and passive seismic data to construct a high-resolution lithospheric scale density model for the Central Andes, enabling detailed analysis of crustal structural differentiation. For this, a combined workflow of forwardgravity field calculation using IGMAS+ and gravity inversion for the crustal layer using SimPEG is applied. By inverting for crustal densities constrained by both gravity field observations and seismic shear wave velocity conversions for the crust and upper mantle, this work reveals lateral and vertical variations in crustal density that challenge traditional models of upper/lower crustal dichotomy.

With this contribution, we will discuss how the combined information on seismic velocity and gravity-constrained density helps inferring lithological variations within the crust. This is a pre-requisite for investigating variations in the thermal field and mechanical strength of this complex lithosphere-asthenosphere system. In addition, our results provide new insights into the distribution of seismic events in relation to crustal heterogeneity.

How to cite: May, T., Bott, J., and Scheck-Wenderoth, M.: Unveiling Crustal Heterogeneities in the Central Andes: A High-Resolution Density Model Derived from Integrated Gravity and Seismic Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7613, 2026.

EGU26-8635 | Orals | TS3.4

 Rough or smooth plate interface? It doesn’t matter when it comes to great earthquakes 

Xiaodong Yang, Rebecca Bell, Alexander Whittaker, Haobo Xu, Xinze Han, Angela Knowlson, and Valerie Locher

Subduction zones host the largest seismogenic zones on earth and hence the largest earthquakes. However, although some subduction margins generate some of the most destructive earthquakes (e.g., Japan, Sumatra), others appear to slip less dramatically in slow slip events, by aseismic creep or in small-moderate earthquakes (e.g., north Hikurangi). Subduction interface topography (‘roughness’) has emerged as a leading parameter in controlling the seismicity at subduction zones, although there is strong debate as to whether rough patches are asperities or barriers to large rupture. This issue persists because observational studies are limited to individual margins, seafloor bathymetry used as proxy for plate interface topography is not direct measurement, and historical earthquake record is short, which together make the precise assessment of earthquake potential in a subduction margin challenging. Here we test whether geodetic interplate coupling is an indicator of earthquake potential in lieu of a longer historical records. We then use direct seismic reflection observations from 35 plate boundary faults to quantify three types of roughness at 1–10 km length scales. We find a strong and positive relationship between maximum magnitude and interplate coupling. Strikingly, no relationship is observed between any of the roughness parameters and maximum earthquake magnitudes/interplate coupling. This result challenges the long-standing paradigm that the plate interface roughness is a pivotal factor in governing seismogenic behaviour. We suggest that short-wavelength (£10 km) roughness has different effects on earthquake nucleation depending on the prevailing stage of earthquake cycle. We conclude that plate roughness alone is not a good proxy to assess a margin’s seismic potential. Instead, interplate coupling provides a better indicator of seismic potential, highlighting the need for enhanced marine geodetic observations.

How to cite: Yang, X., Bell, R., Whittaker, A., Xu, H., Han, X., Knowlson, A., and Locher, V.:  Rough or smooth plate interface? It doesn’t matter when it comes to great earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8635, 2026.

EGU26-11604 | Posters on site | TS3.4

The role of permanent upper-plate deformation in coseismic deformation and megathrust earthquakes dynamics 

Manel Prada, Cesar R. Raner, Valentí Sallarès, and Thomas Ulrich

In subduction zones, seismic imaging reveals increasing permanent active deformation toward the trench, particularly within accretionary systems. Yet, how these rock bodies deform coseismically and influence megathrust rupture behavior is elusive. Here we combine geophysical observations from seismic imaging with visco-plastic dynamic rupture simulations to investigate how realistic upper-plate rock bodies influence megathrust earthquake dynamics and off-fault deformation. Our models reproduce the elastic structure of three subduction systems that differ primarily in the width of the accretionary prism, a key parameter for comparison. These configurations, referred to as Models I, II, and III, include a narrow compliant prism of approximately 20 km, an intermediate prism of about 60 km, and a wide prism exceeding 100 km, respectively. Elastic rock properties for each upper-plate model are derived from 2D P-wave velocity models obtained from controlled-source seismic data. Upper-plate bulk cohesion and bulk friction define visco-plastic strength and are set to depend on rigidity distribution and empirical observations. Based on laboratory measurements from JFAST drilling samples, we use rate-and-state friction law with strong velocity weakening in the shallow portion of the fault.

Results show that coseismic upper-plate plastic deformation in Model I is confined to the ~20-km-wide wedge, whereas in Models II and III it extends 40–60 km landward from the trench. This is consistent with seismic reflection profiles that reveal increasing active internal deformation of the prism at similar distances from the trench in regions such as the Japan Trench, Chile, and Sumatra. Such contrasting upper-plate deformation patterns lead to distinct uplift scenarios, particularly in their high-frequency response. In particular, Model I produces shorter-wavelength uplift near the trench, likely generating a tsunami with higher-frequency content than Model II and III, where uplift exhibits a longer wavelength. Although we do not explicitly simulate independent faults within the prism, the bulk plastic strain can be considered a proxy for the amount of deformation that is accommodated by these structures. Our results suggest that permanent deformation within accretionary prisms is active during trench-breaching megathrust earthquakes, indicating that substantial prism deformation occurs coseismically. Plastic deformation leads to a reduction in slip toward the trench, implying that coseismic energy is absorbed by the overlying rock body. This effect explains the low-radiated-energy of near-trench earthquakes, including tsunami earthquakes. Depending on the plastic strength of upper-plate material and the available energy along the fault, this effect may even prevent the rupture from reaching the trench, while still producing substantial coseismic uplift and horizontal seafloor displacement. Overall, this study indicates that identifying permanently deformed, low-rigidity regions near the trench can serve as a proxy for locating areas where coseismic deformation is strongly accommodated and tsunamigenic uplift is likely amplified.

How to cite: Prada, M., R. Raner, C., Sallarès, V., and Ulrich, T.: The role of permanent upper-plate deformation in coseismic deformation and megathrust earthquakes dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11604, 2026.

EGU26-11619 | ECS | Orals | TS3.4

From Slab Dynamics to Seismicity: A Global Perspective 

Yida Li and Neil Ribe

Subduction zones host the majority of global earthquakes, spanning shallow megathrust events, outer-rise earthquakes, and deep intraplate seismicity within subducting slabs. Although earthquakes form narrow, coherent belts in map view, their three-dimensional spatial distributions exhibit complex, case-dependent patterns when depth is considered. The physical processes governing these patterns, particularly for deep earthquakes, remain incompletely understood.
In this study, we develop realistic three-dimensional spherical geodynamic models constrained by multiple geophysical datasets to investigate long-term slab dynamics across multiple subduction zones worldwide. By comparing modeled slab deformation with global earthquake distributions, we identify a coherent spatial correlation between the deformation rate predicted by the models and the observed distribution of seismicity within subducting slabs. Regions of strong long-term deformation systematically coincide with zones of concentrated deep seismicity, whereas areas of weak deformation are characterized by sparse earthquake occurrence.
These results indicate that large-scale slab dynamics exert a first-order control on the spatial distribution of deep intraplate seismicity, providing a dynamics-based framework for interpreting global earthquake patterns.

How to cite: Li, Y. and Ribe, N.: From Slab Dynamics to Seismicity: A Global Perspective, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11619, 2026.

EGU26-11813 | Orals | TS3.4

The transition from flat to steep subduction in south Peru and its impact on seismicity and deformation 

Anne Socquet, caroline chalumeau, bertrand lovery, sebastien chevrot, mohamed chlieh, mathilde radiguet, juan carlos villegas, jannes munchmeyer, marie pierre doin, hugo sanchez-reyes, edmundo norabuena, hernando tavera, vadim monteilller, and li-yu kan

South Peru subduction is marked by a transition between flat slab, where the Nazca ridge enters into subduction, to dipping slab further South. Using a dense seismo geodetic network installed in the area together with Sentinel InSAR time series, we monitor in great details the seismic structure, the seismicity and the deformation in the area.

The subduction of the Nazca ridge is associated with low interseismic locking as well as seismic swarms and repeaters on the interface likely indicative of the occurrence of shallow slow slip events. There, the overriding plate is characterized by a wide zone of deformation as shown by InSAR data and by crustal seismicity. The flat slab also exibits an intense intraslab seismicity that shows an intriguing correlation with the vertical surface deformation.

Further south, the slab is dipping steeply and exhibits much less seismicity, maybe due to long lasting post-seismic relaxation following the 2001 Mw8.4 Arequipa earthquake and to high interseismic locking on the interface. Crustal seismicity is more localised: along the volcanic arc and associated tectonic structures, and along faults systems in the forearc.

At the transition between flat to dipping slab, regular Mw~7+ earthquakes occur every ~5 years. The last one occurred in June 2024 and has been captured by our seismo-geodetic deployment. This Mw7.2 earthquake was preceded by a series of foreshocks, and followed by numerous aftershocks, both of which exhibit an intriguing extent down to 80km depth within the slab, likely guided by subducted oceanic structures along the edge of the Nazca ridge that mark the transition from flat to dipping slab.    

Our observations image the transition from flat to dipping slab in South Peru and its impact on the seismicity features, and on the upper plate deformation. We notably show that the subduction of the Nazca ridge cannot sustain the flat slab alone. Full waveform tomographic images instead show that the oceanic lithosphere is anomalously thin with asthenosphere upwelling, suggesting that it is thermally eroded by Easter hot spot, that contributes to the buoyancy of the flat segment. We also see that the flat slab has likely contributed to the delamination of the continental lithosphere that is almost absent, implying a significant viscous coupling between the slab and the overriding plate. The enhanced landward motion above the flat slab, seen by InSAR and GNSS, could be due to a viscous drag of the continental plate by the flat slab. Finally, the surface uplift imaged by InSAR can only partly be explained by a viscoelatic subduction model, including interseismic coupling on the interface and an elastic cold nose. Far inland, at about 250km from the trench, a secondary uplift zone correlates remarkably well with intraslab seismicity. We suggest that these intriguing features could be explained by the bending – unbending of the slab.

How to cite: Socquet, A., chalumeau, C., lovery, B., chevrot, S., chlieh, M., radiguet, M., villegas, J. C., munchmeyer, J., doin, M. P., sanchez-reyes, H., norabuena, E., tavera, H., monteilller, V., and kan, L.: The transition from flat to steep subduction in south Peru and its impact on seismicity and deformation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11813, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11813, 2026.

EGU26-12123 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Evidence for hydrologically-induced, short-term variations in subduction interplate coupling in Taiwan 

Peter Makus, Jannes Münchmeyer, Jens M. Turowski, Benjamin Männel, and Jui-Ming Chang

The island of Taiwan is situated in a complex tectonic setting at the top of a triple junction, where the Eurasian plate is subducting under the Philippine Sea plate and vice versa. These opposing subductions generate intense deformation, culminating in frequent megathrust earthquakes, and, at greater depths, produce seismic tremors. In addition to seismic extreme events, Taiwan experiences strong monsoon seasons during which typhoons deliver up to 1 m of precipitation locally. Here, we observe a transient reduction in megathrust slip rates following major typhoons, as evidenced by decreased geodetic velocities and reduced tremor and earthquake rates, lasting for approximately 15 days. We interpret the apparent reduction in subduction rates as a result of water-load-induced increases in normal stress on the plate interface, which, in turn, increases interplate coupling. While correlations between individual crustal fault activity and hydrological cycles have been previously reported, our study demonstrates that such effects operate at much larger scales, temporarily slowing an entire subducting slab. Our observations highlight the importance of studying the coupling between climate and tectonic dynamics.

How to cite: Makus, P., Münchmeyer, J., Turowski, J. M., Männel, B., and Chang, J.-M.: Evidence for hydrologically-induced, short-term variations in subduction interplate coupling in Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12123, 2026.

EGU26-14860 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Towards imaging fluids in subduction zones through Backus-Gilbert inference of Vp/Vs structure: initial application to the Lesser Antilles 

Manuel Mojica Boada, Paula Koelemeijer, Stephen Hicks, Christophe Zaroli, and Emile Serra

The transport and release of fluids play a fundamental role in subduction zone settings, including for the genesis of seismicity and arc volcanism. Understanding how fluids escape from the slab and move into and through the overlying mantle wedge is key for understanding these processes. The presence and distribution of fluids within these regions has been primarily investigated through estimates of the Vp/Vs ratio, which serves as a key indicator of fluid and magma content.

Local earthquake travel-time tomography (LET) has been extensively used to image Vp/Vs structure in subduction zones, providing critical insights into the morphology of the subducted slab and the properties of the overlying mantle wedge. LET typically involves the inversion of seismic data to simultaneously determine P- and S-wave velocity models alongside hypocentre locations. Differences in data coverage and quality lead both to the need for different regularisation in the Vp and Vs inversions and to mismatched resolution between the two velocity models. Together, these effects make a simple division to compute Vp/Vs inappropriate and result in unreliable and uninterpretable estimates of the Vp/Vs ratio. Therefore, several widely used algorithms incorporate a direct inversion for the Vp/Vs ratio, but these typically assume identical ray paths for P and S waves. The requirement to have both S- and P- wave arrivals also means that valuable data are discarded. Moreover, many LET schemes provide limited information on model uncertainty and resolution, complicating the assessment of model reliability.

In this work, we address these issues by utilising the Backus-Gilbert based SOLA method (Zaroli, 2016) to obtain robust and consistent Vp/Vs models in local earthquake tomography. The SOLA method provides direct control over model resolution and has recently been applied to obtain multiple physical parameters with the same local resolution. Here, we present the methodology and preliminary work towards implementing SOLA with LET, with the goal of improving constraints on fluid distribution in subduction zones. As an initial step towards this, we use data from the Lesser Antilles subduction zone (Bie et al, 2022) to obtain Vp and Vs models within a linearised framework. We will present preliminary findings for the Vp/Vs ratio including uncertainty and resolution information.

How to cite: Mojica Boada, M., Koelemeijer, P., Hicks, S., Zaroli, C., and Serra, E.: Towards imaging fluids in subduction zones through Backus-Gilbert inference of Vp/Vs structure: initial application to the Lesser Antilles, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14860, 2026.

EGU26-15591 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Dynamics of San Andreas Fault Formation: Capture of a Microplate during the Demise of Subduction 

Wei Mao and Gurnis Michael

The capture of microplates by the Pacific Plate drives the transition from subduction to intracontinental, strike-slip motion along the San Andreas Fault (SAF). However, the underlying mechanics behind microplate capture and formation of intracontinental strike-slip faults remain unclear. Through 3D thermo-mechanical models with fluid migration, we find that northwestward Pacific Plate motion transitions from being accommodated at the Pacific-Farallon ridge to the megathrust between the Farallon slab and North America, and finally to an emergent, fluid-weakened intracontinental strike-slip fault. This transition occurs during slab detachment, triggered by decaying subduction convergence, strengthening of the megathrust with slowing water release, and eventual subduction termination. With the detached Monterey slab paleogeographically restored, forward large-scale convection models show that the paleo slab corresponds to the prominent, high-seismic velocity anomaly in the mantle transition zone below Nevada and Utah. The extension of the overriding American Plate facilitates the formation of the strike-slip fault. The computations suggest the connection between the low viscosity and high permeability subducted plate interface and the North American lower crust may lead to shearing, fluid transfer, and serpentinization and eventual SAF formation, offering insights into the spatial variations of volcanism, fault creeping, and seismicity along the SAF.

How to cite: Mao, W. and Michael, G.: Dynamics of San Andreas Fault Formation: Capture of a Microplate during the Demise of Subduction, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15591, 2026.

EGU26-17702 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Heterogeneous Earth structure controls on surface deformation caused by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake 

Leah Langer and Kathryn Materna

The M9.1 2011 Tohoku earthquake occurred in a region with complex heterogeneous Earth structure, including non-uniform slab geometry and strong velocity contrasts. Prior studies of the deformation caused by this earthquake have generally utilized simplified Earth structures based on homogeneous or layered models. Here, we present an analysis of the Tohoku earthquake deformation field based on a model that incorporates realistic Earth structure, including three-dimensional (3D) velocity structure, slab geometry, and topography and bathymetry. We find that the presence of 3D material structure significantly alters predicted surface displacement by producing greater uplift far from the trench and smaller near-trench uplift, and by reducing near-trench horizontal displacement. These findings demonstrate the potential for 3D structural variations in the Tohoku region to bias slip estimates for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Our results suggest that it may be appropriate to re-visit conclusions drawn from prior analysis of geodetic data for the Tohoku earthquake.

How to cite: Langer, L. and Materna, K.: Heterogeneous Earth structure controls on surface deformation caused by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17702, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17702, 2026.

EGU26-18475 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

The Structure of the Chilean Subduction Zone from Seismic Imaging and Tomography at 34.5°S 

Anja Boekholt, Manel Prada, Laura Gómez de la Peña, Clara E. Jiménez-Tejero, Nathan Bangs, and César R. Ranero

The south-central Chilean seismogenic zone has produced some of the largest megathrust earthquakes ever recorded, including the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule event. To understand the rupture behaviour of this earthquake in the region of maximum coseismic slip at 34.5°S, we analyse the tectonic and elastic structure of the margin using 2D wide-angle seismic (WAS) data, and spatially coincident 2D multichannel (MCS) data acquired with a 15-km-long streamer.

To improve the seismic velocity model relative to previous results along the same WAS line, we jointly invert travel times from WAS and MCS data using a combined refraction–reflection tomographic approach and statistical uncertainty analysis. In addition, we apply downward continuation to the MCS shot gathers to increase the number of usable MCS travel times and to improve ray coverage with refracted arrivals from the shallow part of the velocity model. This approach enhances coverage and reduces tomographic velocity uncertainties, and improves constraints on the position of the interplate reflector from the megathrust.

The resulting 2D P-wave velocity (Vp) model includes the velocity structure of a 50-60 km-wide accretionary prism, and a sharp velocity transition into crystalline basement landward. We convert the velocity structure of the upper plate into density and S-wave seismic velocity to then calculate rigidity (Shear modulus), and infer dynamic rupture parameters such as slip and rupture velocity. Comparison of the expected slip distribution from our results with existing kinematic slip models shows significant discrepancies, particularly beneath the accretionary prism, where the time-migrated 127-km-long seismic profile reveals intense internal deformation and increasing thrust faulting and folding towards the trench. We discuss potential upper-plate coseismic deformation processes to explain such discrepancy.

How to cite: Boekholt, A., Prada, M., Gómez de la Peña, L., E. Jiménez-Tejero, C., Bangs, N., and R. Ranero, C.: The Structure of the Chilean Subduction Zone from Seismic Imaging and Tomography at 34.5°S, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18475, 2026.

EGU26-18752 | Posters on site | TS3.4

Earthquakes, “young” faults, and landscapes in Japan’s back-arc 

Luca C Malatesta, Shigeru Sueoka, Nina-Marie Weiss, Sumiko Tsukamoto, Boris Gailleton, Viviana Bonerath, Duhwan Keum, Naoya Takahashi, Daisuke Ishimura, Takuya Nishimura, Tetsuya Komatsu, Kyoko Kataoka, Yoshiya Iwasa, and Kevin Norton

The eastern margin of the Sea of Japan is a zone of great seismic and tsunami hazard due to multiple offshore and nearshore reverse faults. The 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula Earthquake highlights this hazard. It resulted from the combined rupture of multiple adjacent faults. The specific hazard caused by each fault in the back-arc is however difficult to assess owing to long earthquake recurrence intervals. Diagnostic fingerprints in the landscape, onshore and offshore, can reveal clues and augment our understanding of the local earthquake cycle.

Here, we compare coseismic deformation of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake with 4,767 individual marine terraces attributed to 16 successive sea-level stages over the last Myr. This reveals that thereverse faults responsible for the quake were reactivated and started slipping between 326 and 238 ka. The emerged landscape is still adjusting to it while nearshore underwater scarps mark the active faults. Applied to nearby Sado Island, these observations reveal the likely location of an active fault that drives its fast deformation. Active faults defining the edge of uplifting land are likely found in the near shore domain, drowned by the current sea-level high stand.

New luminescence dating constraints on uplifted marine terraces further quantify the rate of deformation on Noto. These ages are in the final phase of analysis at the time of writing. Preliminary results appear to largely confirm the existing morphostratigraphic assumptions for the 120 ka terrace of Noto and a recurrence interval for 2024 Mw 7.5-type earthquake on the order of 2 kyr.

How to cite: Malatesta, L. C., Sueoka, S., Weiss, N.-M., Tsukamoto, S., Gailleton, B., Bonerath, V., Keum, D., Takahashi, N., Ishimura, D., Nishimura, T., Komatsu, T., Kataoka, K., Iwasa, Y., and Norton, K.: Earthquakes, “young” faults, and landscapes in Japan’s back-arc, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18752, 2026.

EGU26-19995 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Kinematic boundary between Burma and Sumatra at the Nicobar Trench 

Himanshu Agrawal, Karen Lythgoe, Kyle Bradley, and Lujia Feng

The Andaman–Nicobar segment of the Sunda subduction zone hosts some of the world’s highest tsunamigenic hazards, exemplified by the 2004 Mw 9.1-9.3 Sumatra–Andaman event. Highly oblique convergence promotes slip partitioning between the megathrust and upper-plate strike-slip faults; however, the detailed fault architecture of the Andaman arc remains uncertain. To better constrain the neotectonic framework, we perform regionally comprehensive kinematic block modelling using the most up-to-date geodetic velocities and earthquake slip vector azimuths, allowing us to quantify slip rates on major crustal faults from southern Myanmar to Java and assess along-strike variations in deformation style. Our results reveal several new features of the tectonic system. 1) A distinct transition in trench behaviour occurs near the Nicobar Islands, separating independently moving Andaman (Burma plate) and Sumatran segments of the rigid forearc. This boundary coincides with pronounced changes in slip magnitude, rake and rupture velocity during the 2004 great Andaman–Sumatra earthquake, implying that the rupture spanned two kinematically distinct plate boundaries that are interseismically loaded at different rates and in different directions. This boundary is expressed by sharp changes in gravity, bathymetry, and trench obliquity gradient, analogous to those observed at the Sunda Strait, particularly marked by a negative residual Bouguer anomaly indicative of a mechanically weak zone capable of accommodating differential block motion. 2) The strike-slip Andaman-Nicobar Fault, the offshore continuation of the Sumatran Fault, has a slip rate of >30 mm/yr, about twice that of the Sumatran Fault. The lack of recorded large earthquakes along this system and abundant swarm seismicity, imply that deformation may be accommodated by a combination of fault creep and localized locked patches, and/or by distributed slip across multiple structures. Our results have important implications for seismic hazard assessment and for future tectonic and tsunami-generation models, which must account for the structural barrier and complex strain accommodation in this part of the subduction system. 

How to cite: Agrawal, H., Lythgoe, K., Bradley, K., and Feng, L.: Kinematic boundary between Burma and Sumatra at the Nicobar Trench, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19995, 2026.

EGU26-20670 | Orals | TS3.4

What drives extension and seismicity in the central Apennines (Italy)? Insights from 2D seismo-thermo-mechanical modeling 

Maaike Fonteijn, Erwan Pathier, Anne Socquet, and Ylona van Dinther

The central Apennines have experienced several destructive normal-faulting earthquakes in the last decade, but fundamental questions about the tectonic mechanisms driving extension persist. Multiple mechanisms have been proposed, including differences in gravitational potential energy (GPE), independent motion of the Adriatic plate, and large-scale uplift following slab detachment. In terms of structure, debates continue about whether the slab has detached and whether the continental Mohos overlap. However, none of these hypotheses have been tested through self-consistent geodynamic modeling. We employ 2D instantaneous seismo-thermo-mechanical models with a visco-elasto-plastic rheology and a strongly slip-rate dependent friction. We systematically explore different lithospheric structures, rheologies and forcings to test these hypotheses and identify the key driving mechanisms of surface deformation and seismicity in the central Apennines. 

Our results confirm that the slab beneath the central Apennines is detached: only a detached slab reproduces normal-faulting earthquakes in the orogen and a gradual increase of horizontal surface velocities up to 3 mm/yr. An attached slab instead produces strong compression and vertical motions inconsistent with observations. The primary driver of extension is Adriatic plate motion, which accounts for approximately two-third of the horizontal surface velocities. The secondary driver is eduction of subducted upper crust, which contributes to approximately one-third of the horizontal surface velocities and facilitates decoupling between the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian plates. On the contrary, differences in GPE arising from topography only have a minor contribution to extension and seismicity. Density differences up to the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary do play a significant role as it controls upper crust eduction. Lower- and upper crust rheology also control the occurrence and intensity of eduction, thereby affecting plate coupling and seismicity. Additionally, lower crust viscosity of the plate contact area strongly modulates the transfer of deep velocities to the surface, and thereby controls the location of highest surface velocity gradient and seismicity. Hence, our results show that deep structures, rheologies, temperatures and processes have a large control over the location and intensity of crustal seismicity. By refining the geodynamic structure and deciphering the tectonic drivers of seismicity, this study advances the understanding of Apennine geodynamics and seismicity.

How to cite: Fonteijn, M., Pathier, E., Socquet, A., and van Dinther, Y.: What drives extension and seismicity in the central Apennines (Italy)? Insights from 2D seismo-thermo-mechanical modeling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20670, 2026.

EGU26-22644 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

  Seismicity and seismotectonics of the Basque-Cantabrian Zone (northern Iberia) from six years of observations using a dense temporary network of broadband seismic stations 

Andrés Olivar Castaño, Alba Díaz-González, Francisco Javier Álvarez Pulgar, David Pedreira, Juan Manuel González-Cortina, Jorge Gallastegui, Jordi Diaz, and Josep Gallart

The safe management of subsurface-related economic activities, such as fluid extraction or storage (groundwater, hydrocarbon, H2, CO2, etc.), requires a reliable assessment of local seismicity. In intraplate regions, such assessments are difficult because earthquakes are often scattered and difficult to associate with active structures. Thus, studies of the local seismicity in intraplate settings often require detailed long-term seismic surveys. 

In this work, we present the results of more than six years of seismic monitoring in the Basque-Cantabrian Zone (BCZ), a region of great economic and geological interest in the eastern continuation of the Pyrenees along northern Iberia. Although the BCZ has long been an area of intensive subsurface use and resource exploitation, knowledge of its background seismicity and active structures remains limited. During our six-year long survey, we recorded more than 1200 earthquakes and computed 42 new focal mechanisms. 

The observed seismicity is generally dispersed and concentrates primarily to the east of the studied area, in the transition between the BCZ and the Western Pyrenees (WP). Within the BCZ, seismicity is associated with salt diapirs and blind faults that likely affect the Paleozoic basement, as well as with a major south-dipping Mesozoic normal fault. In the WP, seismicity primarily clusters along a steeply dipping fault that we interpret as the Ollín fault, reaching ~40 km depth. In the Southern Pyrenean Zone, we observed two seismic crises that appear to be related to blind faults. In the northern Iberian Range, seismicity is scattered over a wide range of depths, both all of them occurring above and below the frontal thrust (Cameros thrust). 

Finally, we analyzed the regional stress regime by inversting the newly-derived focal mechanisms. Our results indicate a predominantly extensional stress regime in the BCZ, with localized strike-slip components in several areas, including the South Pyrenean Zone. 

How to cite: Olivar Castaño, A., Díaz-González, A., Álvarez Pulgar, F. J., Pedreira, D., González-Cortina, J. M., Gallastegui, J., Diaz, J., and Gallart, J.:   Seismicity and seismotectonics of the Basque-Cantabrian Zone (northern Iberia) from six years of observations using a dense temporary network of broadband seismic stations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22644, 2026.

EGU26-22671 | Orals | TS3.4

Control of Gravitational Potential Energy and associated stress field on crustal seismicity along the Andean margin 

Andrés Tassara, Laura Giambiagi, Silvana Spagnotto, Catalina Cabello, and Rodolfo Araya

Lateral changes of lithospheric density structure and associated topography create spatial variations of Gravitational Potential Energy (GPE) that exert a primary control on the direction and magnitude of crustal stresses, the style of active faulting and, therefore, the location, spatial density and magnitude of crustal earthquakes. Zones of positive/negative GPE with respect to a stable region, should be characterized by an extensional/compressional stress regime, driving crustal deformation toward an ideal situation of spatially homogeneous GPE with no lateral gradients. Along active continental margins, these relationships can be altered by forces associated to subduction, namely the far-field tectonic forces due to plate convergence, elevated shear stresses along the interplate megathrust and basal drags driven by mantle wedge flow. Testing the role of GPE on crustal stresses and seismicity requires an adequate representation of the 3D density structure and a large dataset of stress field indicators and focal mechanism to allow a significant statistical comparison between model predictions and observations, both of which are commonly scarce.

In this contribution we will show results of a study performing this test along the Central and Southern Andean margin (5º-45ºS) that use a refined geophysically-constrained 3D density model, complemented by an analysis of Geoid anomalies, and a recently compiled dataset of several hundred stress tensors derived from Pliocene-to-Recent fault slip data and shallow earthquake focal mechanisms. These results show a strong first-order correlation between GPE anomalies and the large-scale stress field with positive/negative GPE correlating with normal/reverse faulting and near neutral GPE associated to strike-slip faulting. However, local misorientation of existing crustal faults with respect to this field causes stress rotations. First- and second-order partial derivatives of GPE are associated to the 2D stress tensor and compares well with the maximum horizontal stresses SHmax derived from the available data, confirming the main role of GPE on driving crustal deformation. This is further analyzed verifying a correlation between the spatial density of crustal seismic events and the magnitude of GPE gradients, which shed light about the level of stresses at crustal faults and the mechanism of their seismic activation. These results have important implications for understanding the forces driving crustal deformation and the controls on crustal seismicity in active orogenic systems.

How to cite: Tassara, A., Giambiagi, L., Spagnotto, S., Cabello, C., and Araya, R.: Control of Gravitational Potential Energy and associated stress field on crustal seismicity along the Andean margin, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22671, 2026.

The Büyük Menderes Graben (BMG) is a major E-W-oriented extensional basin in Western Anatolia, which exhibits along-strike variability. Yet, the factors controlling its internal asymmetry and the dominant boundary fault remain unresolved, mostly because previous studies of the BMG lack a three-dimensional perspective. This study integrates 2D seismic reflection data, well-log information, and 3D structural modeling between Aydın and Kuyucak to reassess the kinematic evolution of the graben.

Seismic reflection data reveal a distinctly asymmetric basin infill geometry, where early syn-rift deposits form clear wedge geometries and onlap patterns directed toward the southern graben-bounding fault, indicating that accommodation was primarily created along the southern margin. Overlying units show draping, subtle rollover structures, and thickening toward the south, further supporting continuous activity on the southern boundary fault throughout basin development, resembling a rift-climax system tracts described in the literature for half-grabens. The stratigraphic architecture and fault-sediment relationships observed on the N-S seismic sections are consistent with sandbox experiments and conceptual models depicting how major listric faults control the evolution of extensional basins.

A key outcome of this study is the recognition of a second control on basin asymmetry: a series of transverse, consistently east-dipping normal faults with dominant fault polarity is imaged on E-W seismic lines across the BMG. These structures generate localized depocenters, divergent reflection patterns, and westward-increasing thickness trends associated with progradational sediment input. When combined with GPS and InSAR results, both of which indicate a westward increase in extension rates across the BMG, the transverse faults are interpreted as the structural response to spatially variable extension, accompanied by a delta progradation throughout basin evolution.

The apparent symmetry observed on 2D seismic sections is primarily the result of the activation of high-angle normal faults along the northern margin during the Quaternary, which locally produced a more symmetrical basin infill geometry. The 3D structural model, on the other hand, further demonstrates that the basin deepens toward the southern boundary fault, whereas the northern fault retains its irregular geometry and limited subsidence. Geodetic slip-rate modeling also favors a north-dipping, active structure, aligning with the southern boundary fault. These observations suggest that the low-angle normal fault on the northern margin, commonly referred to as the Büyük Menderes Detachment Fault, is a relic structure of an earlier extensional phase, predating the formation of the current basin.

Overall, stratigraphic geometries, structural characteristics, and geodetic data converge on a coherent conclusion: the BMG evolved through multi-phase extension, dominated by the southern boundary fault, while transverse east-dipping faults and delta progradation enhanced internal basin asymmetry. These results refine the current understanding of rift evolution and faulting history in Western Anatolia and emphasize the role of spatially variable extension in shaping extensional basins.

Keywords: Eastern Mediterranean tectonics, Büyük Menderes Graben, extensional basin evolution, seismic reflection data, normal fault kinematics, active deformation.

How to cite: Oğuz, R., Kaymakcı, N., and Uzel, B.: Asymmetric Basin Evolution and Fault Kinematics in the Büyük Menderes Graben (Western Anatolia): Insights from 2D Seismic Reflection Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-602, 2026.

EGU26-1084 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.7

Multistage back-arc extension, basin tectonics and normal faulting in the eastern Mediterranean 

Onur Şencer, Oğuz Hakan Göğüş, Ömer Bodur, and Özge Dinç Göğüş

Geodynamic models have been used to explore the controlling factors for rift and supradetachment basin formations. For the latter, a large (kms) scale (detachment) low angle normal shear zone accommodate the extension and an array of normal faults grow in various geometries and scales. Within the exception of few studies, extension velocities imposed on the lithospheric margins are considered to be constant throughout the model evolution.  Nevertheless, this parameter can vary  based on regional geodynamic factors, for example, during the lifetime of back-arc basins. Here we explore,  how different speed functions can describe the extension rate and influence the tectonic deformation patterns within the lithosphere. ASPECT mantle convection models are used with varying speed functions, such as Vx = constant, linear, logarithmic, and parabolic. Namely,  2D approach provides a simple and focused way to study extension without adding extra complexity where models predict varying speed functions can change stress, the amount of lithosphere thinning, ductile-brittle high strain regions, and the overall deformation patterns. For example, the asymmetric nature of basin architecture can be transformed into symmetric style where both basin margins are controlled by rotating normal faults along horizontal axis. This condition is more favorable with logarithmic change in speed function.  This study offers a simple first step toward understanding characterics of extension and basin tectonics in the eastern Mediterranean where trench retreat in the Aegean has accelerated from 1.7 cm/yr to 3.2 cm/yr during the last approximately 20 Ma.

How to cite: Şencer, O., Göğüş, O. H., Bodur, Ö., and Göğüş, Ö. D.: Multistage back-arc extension, basin tectonics and normal faulting in the eastern Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1084, 2026.

EGU26-1446 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.7

New Magnetotelluric Study of the East Anatolian Fault Zone and Malatya Fault in Türkiye 

Xiangyu Sun, Lingqiang Zhao, Binali Bilal Beytut, Peng Su, Taylan Sançar, Zhanyu Wei, Cengiz Zabcı, Feng Shi, and Yuxin Bao

The East Anatolian Fault Zone and Malatya Fault are located in eastern Türkiye and are among the most seismically hazardous faults in the region. After the 2023 M7.8  Kahramanmaraş/Pazarcik earthquake, the seismic risk in this area has further increased. We conducted magnetotelluric surveys in this region and obtained a profile containing 33 magnetotelluric measurement points. The apparent resistivity in this region is generally low, with an average apparent resistivity of several tens of Ωm, and shows little variation with depth. We used phase tensor technology to obtain two-dimensional deviation and phase tensor rotation invariants along the profile, and the conclusion is that the structure shows strong two-dimensionality in most areas along the profile, with only local areas showing strong three-dimensionality. We used the ModEM ADORA (Liu et al., 2024) magnetotelluric three-dimensional inversion system with arbitrary data rotation angles to invert the data, where the data maintained the acquisition direction and the grid was rotated 60°. This method can reduce the number of grid divisions, which not only saves computational time but also reduces the underdetermination of inversion. After calculations using different parameters and different grid divisions, we selected the result with better fitting degree and ultimately obtained the electrical structure profile across the Malatya Fault and East Anatolian Fault. The electrical structure reveals that the East Anatolian Fault is underlain by a boundary between high and low resistivity bodies. The formation of the Malatya Fault zone may be related to low-resistivity structures from deep sources that may be associated with fluids or high-temperature materials.

How to cite: Sun, X., Zhao, L., Beytut, B. B., Su, P., Sançar, T., Wei, Z., Zabcı, C., Shi, F., and Bao, Y.: New Magnetotelluric Study of the East Anatolian Fault Zone and Malatya Fault in Türkiye, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1446, 2026.

EGU26-2322 | Orals | TS3.7

Geophysics Based Ideas on Structural Setting of 2023 Seismic Sequence SW South Carpathians, Romania 

Lucian Besutiu, Luminita Zlăgnean, and Anca Isac

RATIONALE

Following the 2023 February 6 disastrous earthquakes (Mw7.8 & Mw 7.7) that struck southern & central Türkiye, and northern & western Syria, an intense crust seismic sequence was triggered southwestern South Carpathians, Romania.

Hosted by Gorj County, north Târgu Jiu city, its capital, the sequence started with twin unusual high magnitude earthquake (ML5.2 on February 13, and ML5.7 on February 14) and continued for months with more than 4000 seismic events.

The area was known for quasi-continuous seismic activity, but surprising was the unusual intensity of earthquakes triggered and time extent of the sequence, which had a strong societal impact by scarring the population and provoking economic loss.

The paper brings some geophysics inferred ideas about tectonic circumstances for triggering and maintaining the long-lasting seismic sequence.

 

METHOD

Objective of the undertaken research was twofold: (i) to outline the overall tectonic setting of the area were the seismic sequence occurred, and (ii) to unveil more detailed structural circumstances of the largest magnitude earthquakes.

The approach was mainly based on gravity data mining and interpretation. In a first step, various filters were applied to the complete Bouguer anomaly, like low pass filtering and upward continuation for separating regional and local effects, horizontal and vertical gradients, for emphasising the faults track, etc.

In a second step, more advanced data processing, including inversion and forward modelling was conducted especially in areas of interest.

For better interpreting/understanding the obtained results, data provided by other geophysical investigations, like e.g., geomagnetism, seismology, or seismic tomography were also employed.

 

RESULTS

Among the main results it is worth mentioning: (i) overall location of seismicity along the northern flank of the westernmost segment of Getic Depression; (ii) earthquakes triggering mainly along faults striking WSW – ENE, as crustal echoes of the lithospheric contact between Moesian microplate (MoP) and Intra-alpine microplate (IaP); (iii) some earthquakes were also triggered along sub meridional faults.

The most active area appears as a highly fractured zone, overlaying an underground mass excess with high magnetisation, echoed by a gravity high associated with a geomagnetic anomaly. The basalt dykes cropping out in the area suggest the in-depth presence of mafic/ultramafic intrusive. The assumption is supported by the existence of a hidden high velocity body unveiled by seismic tomography.

 

FINAL REMARKS

To conclude, the unusual intense earthquakes of the Gorj sequence were likely triggered by a sudden increase of tectonic stress in the area due to an acceleration of the Black Sea microplate acting upon MoP. The NW push was WSW redirected along the transform contact between MoP and IaP. Among the others, the strain activated a seismic prone structure generated by the magmatic “diapirism” of an in-depth hidden mafic intrusive, likely belonging to Severine Nappe. The uplift of the mafic dome, had intensively fractured its crustal roof, creating a complex fault system along which earthquakes were triggered.

How to cite: Besutiu, L., Zlăgnean, L., and Isac, A.: Geophysics Based Ideas on Structural Setting of 2023 Seismic Sequence SW South Carpathians, Romania, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2322, 2026.

Basins along continental strike-slip plate-boundary fault systems, such as the N-trending Dead Sea Fault (DSF), are key sites of strain partitioning, where regional motion is accommodated by a variable combination of along-strike slip, across-fault shortening or extension, and vertical movements. The Sea of Galilee (Kinneret) basin developed along the DSF in three main tectonic stages: it was first hijacked from the predecessor NW-trending Irbid rift during the Early Miocene, then deepened and reorganized as a pull-apart basin during the Late Miocene–Pliocene while being filled by local sedimentation, marine incursions and extensive basaltic infill, and since the Early Pleistocene it has evolved into a breached basin, expressed today as a narrow, asymmetric E–W-trending syncline bounded by the Eastern Marginal Fault and the Kinneret Diagonal Fault within a generally transpressive DSF regime.

​Our new seismological analysis focuses on the mechanical behavior of the Kinneret Western Border Fault and its role in internal basin deformation. Using a high-resolution, relocated earthquake catalogue for 2018–2024 and Principal Component Analysis of hypocentral clusters, the study resolves active fault geometries and slip tendencies at unprecedented detail. Long-term seismicity aligns with the regional N–S tectonic grain (mean strike 187.5°, dip 59.2°), consistent with the broader DSF strike-slip kinematics, whereas the 2018 Sea of Galilee swarm activated a localized, rotated, low-angle bypass structure (strike 221.3°, dip 33.8°) that departs markedly from the conventional steep fault-plane models for the diagonal system. Existing tectonic models that infer a single, steeply dipping (~70°E) diagonal fault capture only part of the active structure; a nearly constant seismogenic thickness of ~150 m in both the long-term and swarm datasets indicates that the KWBF–diagonal system is better described as a volumetric damage zone rather than a discrete surface. These results demonstrate a structural decoupling between steady-state plate-boundary deformation and transient swarm dynamics and provide a new seismological framework for how evolving internal architectures of a breached pull-apart basin facilitate strain partitioning and ongoing development along the Dead Sea Fault.

How to cite: Nelaev, A., Lellouch, A., and Schattner, U.: Evolving architecture of a breached pull-apart basin: seismological constraints on the Kinneret Western Border Fault along the Dead Sea Fault, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3192, 2026.

Two very strong earthquakes and many aftershocks spread havoc in southeast Turkey in February 2023, and indeed southeast Anatolia is an intricate geological region where two tectonic processes coincide, creating a complicated setting of the motion of the crustal blocks of the Levant and Anatolia and generating strong seismic activity. GPS measurements show clearly that not only does Anatolia move westwards, but that the velocity of that displacement increases westwards from ca. 20 mm/year to more than 30 mm/year. Furthermore, in the Aegean domain the offset changes its direction to southwest and its velocity continues to increase. It seems that the tectonic cause of Anatolia's westwards migration is the rollback of the Hellenic subduction front, which exerts a significant on the entire Anatolian crustal block. Geological and geophysical evidence for that pull is abundant throughout the Aegean domain. The Anatolian migration is accommodated along its large boundary faults, the North and East Anatolian Faults, which are very active seismically and converge in eastern Anatolia near Karliova.

The tectonics of the Levant is dominated by the Levant (Dead Sea) Rift and its mountainous flanks and oblique extension, where the left-lateral displacement along it is ca. 5 mm/yr. The tectonic regime there is dominated by the northwards propagation of the edge of the Red Sea incipient ocean, which changes its direction of advancement from northwestwards to northwards south of Sinai Peninsula. It seems that the Levant Rift ends its northwards propagation in north Lebanon, where its orientation shifts to the NE and the large fault is split into at least five secondary faults, and ends with the north edge of the Lebanese Baqa'a and its double mountain chains.

The tectonics of the terrain between the Lebanese mountainous domain and the East Anatolian Fault is controversial. Many researchers propose linkage of the Levant Rift and the East Anatolian Fault, which are both sinistral fault systems, by connecting the Yammouneh Fault, one of the Lebanese faults splay, with Masyaf Fault, a southwards extension of the East Anatolian Fault, and the eastern boundary of El-Ghab Rift.

Overall, it seems that the complex structural geology of the domain of eastern Anatolia and northern Levant reflects the complicated tectonics of the closure of NeoTethys Seaway, where the convergence of the Arabian segment of the African and the Eurasian tectonic plates take place. The eastern branch of the Seaway evolved into a collision zone between Arabia and the Bitlis-Zagros mountain belt, whereas subduction still prevails along the western NeoTethys between Africa and Europe. While the old ocean approaches its terminal stages, a new ocean is emerging in the Red Sea. The tectonic displacements indicate that the concept of "escape tectonics" seems poorly supported.

How to cite: Mart, Y.: The Hellenic subduction and the tectonics of the 2023 earthquakes of SE Anatolia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3543, 2026.

EGU26-3752 | Orals | TS3.7

Stress field and megathrust strength in the Western Hellenic subduction system: insights from the 2024 Mw 5.9 Strofades earthquake sequence, Greece. 

Gian Maria Bocchini, David Essing, Ioanna Nikolopoulou, Armin Dielforder, Marco P. Roth, Anna Serpetsidaki, Efthimios Sokos, Christos P. Evangelidis, and Rebecca M. Harrington

An offshore M5.9 earthquake occurred on 29 March 2024 in the western Hellenic subduction system near the Strofades Islands. The mainshock and the related sequence occurred during a period of unusually dense onshore broadband seismic station coverage across the Peloponnese, including a temporary station deployment operated by the Ruhr University Bochum, Adria Array temporary stations, and permanent stations from the Hellenic Unified Seismological Network. Here we present a study of the seismotectonic context of the M5.9 sequence that capitalizes on the dense coverage and its fortuitous location to investigate subduction dynamics in the region, including interactions between the upper and lower plates and the strength of the megathrust. We compute high-resolution hypocentral locations and focal mechanism solutions that point to an association of the earthquake sequence with the lower plate. The absence of triggered upper-plate seismicity, together with contrasting stress orientations between the overriding and subducting plates, are consistent with a decoupled stress field between the two plates and suggest a weak megathrust interface.
Our analysis of the distribution of high-precision hypocenter locations and focal mechanism solutions is coupled with an interpretation in the context of local stress field and previously mapped intraslab faults. High-precision hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms indicate rupture on a NNE–SSW striking, left-lateral strike-slip fault within the slab. P- and T-axis focal mechanism orientations differ from those of nearby interplate and upper-plate earthquakes, consistent with the intraslab nature of the sequence and indicative of a distinct stress regime. The stress pattern of the M5.9 earthquake sequence lies approximately orthogonal to the NE–SW shortening direction of the upper plate and reflects arc-parallel shortening within the lower plate, similar to that observed for intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Aegean. The orientation of the intraslab stress field relative to the plate margin suggests that slab rollback controls the intraslab stress regime by reducing horizontal compressional stress normal to the margin. Our results suggest that previously mapped intraslab faults, if present, play a limited role in controlling the intraslab stress field, and that a weak megathrust limits interaction and stress transfer between the lower and upper plates in the shallow portion of the subduction zone.

How to cite: Bocchini, G. M., Essing, D., Nikolopoulou, I., Dielforder, A., Roth, M. P., Serpetsidaki, A., Sokos, E., Evangelidis, C. P., and Harrington, R. M.: Stress field and megathrust strength in the Western Hellenic subduction system: insights from the 2024 Mw 5.9 Strofades earthquake sequence, Greece., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3752, 2026.

EGU26-3828 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.7

Monitoring of Crustal Movements in the Eastern Gulf of Gokova with GNSS Measurements 

Muhammed Turgut, Uğur Doğan, Seda Özarpacı, Alpay Özdemir, Efe Turan Ayruk, İlay Farımaz Ayruk, Binali Bilal Beytut, and Aynur Dikbaş

As a result of the interaction between the Anatolian Plate and the African Plate to the south, and the Aegean microplate to the west, a complex extensional regime has developed across Western Anatolia. This dynamic tectonic framework causes significant crustal deformation and temporal strain accumulation, particularly along the active Fethiye–Burdur and Gökova fault zones. The Aegean region is considered one of the most seismically active areas worldwide. The Mw 6.7 earthquake that occurred within the Gulf of Gökova on 21 July 2017 represents one of the most recent destructive earthquakes in the region. Despite the pronounced seismic activity in this area, no active fault zones are mapped in this section of the Turkish Active Fault Map. The absence of mapped active structures has highlighted the necessity of detailed investigations into the region’s present-day tectonic deformation characteristics. Within the scope of this study, the aim is to determine crustal deformation and temporal strain accumulation based on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations. For this purpose, the region has been monitored since 2021 through campaign-based GNSS measurements and data obtained from continuously operating GNSS stations.

In the study, GNSS data has been collected from 6 CORS-TR (Turkey National Permanent GNSS Network- Active) stations, 7 Turkey National Fundamental GNSS Network (TNFGN) sites, and 16 campaign GNSS sites. Four GNSS campaign measurements were carried out between 2021 and 2024 .The GNSS data were processed to generate coordinate time series and estimate station velocities using with Bernese GNSS Software version 5.4. Based on these results, a statistically significant velocity field was identified across the region, with horizontal southwest-directed velocities ranging from a maximum of 41.67 ± 1.76 mm/yr to a minimum of 22.05 ± 2.95 mm/yr. Also, temporal strain accumulation in the region was computed using a finite element method . The results indicate that the eastern and western parts of the region are characterized by different strain fields, and that the amount of strain has increased and expanded spatially over the observations.

This work is supported by TUBITAK CAYDAG Project Number 121Y300

How to cite: Turgut, M., Doğan, U., Özarpacı, S., Özdemir, A., Ayruk, E. T., Farımaz Ayruk, İ., Beytut, B. B., and Dikbaş, A.: Monitoring of Crustal Movements in the Eastern Gulf of Gokova with GNSS Measurements, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3828, 2026.

EGU26-4896 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.7

Ground Penetrating Radar Survey Revealing Pre-Event Earthquakes on the 6 February 2023 Mw 7.5 Elbistan Earthquake Surface Rupture, Türkiye 

Peng Su, Cengiz Zabcı, Taylan Sançar, Xiangyu Sun, Honglin He, Yunfan Zhang, and Yunying Zhang

Earthquakes occasionally rupture faults that were not previously recognised, raising the question of whether such structures represent newly formed faults or previously unidentified active faults with a history of repeated rupture. This debate is particularly relevant for the NE-striking eastern section of the 6 February 2023 Mw 7.5 Elbistan Earthquake rupture, referred to as the Yeşilyurt Fault. Unlike the better-known Çardak Fault to the west, the Yeşilyurt Fault was not mapped in the official Active Fault Map of Türkiye and lacks data regarding its paleoseismicity and morphotectonic evolution.

In this study, we introduce a novel, high-resolution, non-invasive, and relatively time- and cost-effective approach to investigate the rupture history at a surface-rupture site of the Elbistan earthquake. The method integrates unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)–based topographic surveying with ground-penetrating radar (GPR) profiling across an earthquake surface rupture site. UAV surveys yielded high-resolution topography that reveals multiple surface-rupture strands. Some strands coincide with pre-existing topographic scarps, whereas others cut across bedrock highs. We then acquired three GPR profiles near the scarped area: two profiles crossing two parallel surface-rupture strands, and one profile oriented parallel to and between them (Figure 1). The GPR data image multiple pre-event offsets and deformation within late Quaternary sediments, indicating that the Yeşilyurt Fault at the study site has hosted multiple large earthquakes prior to the 2023 Elbistan event. Together, the UAV and GPR results suggest that the Yeşilyurt Fault at this location is a previously unidentified active fault segment rather than a newly generated fault. This study demonstrates the utility of combining UAV-based topography and GPR imaging for evaluating the activity and rupture history of “hidden” faults that emerge during large earthquakes.

Figure 1.  (a) Surface ruptures of the 2023 Mw 7.6 Elbistan earthquake superposed on the UAV DSM-based topographic map. Surface ruptures are constrained based on our field investigation and the UAV-derived DSM and orthoimage. The black rectangle shows the location of the study site (b and c). (b) The topographic map shows the study site and the locations of the GPR lines. Arrows show the GPR survey directions. (c) Geological interpretation of (b). 

How to cite: Su, P., Zabcı, C., Sançar, T., Sun, X., He, H., Zhang, Y., and Zhang, Y.: Ground Penetrating Radar Survey Revealing Pre-Event Earthquakes on the 6 February 2023 Mw 7.5 Elbistan Earthquake Surface Rupture, Türkiye, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4896, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4896, 2026.

EGU26-4914 | Orals | TS3.7

The Hellenic Subduction System: A revised view of its structure and kinematics 

Vasiliki Mouslopoulou, John Begg, Alina Polonia, Andy Nicol, Tim Reston, Simone Cesca, and Luca Gasperini

The Hellenic forearc is one of the least understood forearc systems globally due to limited availability of high-resolution imagery of its deep structure, especially landward of the Mediterranean Ridge. This has resulted to ambiguity about the origin of its key structural and morphotectonic features, the location of the active subduction trench, the relationship between different fault types within its forearc and to whether this system is capable of generating large (M>8) subduction earthquakes and associated tsunamis. Here, we combine widely spaced high-resolution multichannel seismic-reflection profiles with seafloor morpho-bathymetric analysis and earthquake moment-tensors to investigate the structure and post-Messinian (0–5.9 Ma) fault kinematics in the Hellenic forearc. Our work provides, for the first time, strong evidence for the presence of active thrust faults along the inner forearc, from the backstop of the Mediterranean Ridge to the Hellenic Trough. Many thrusts are imaged to splay from the subduction plate-interface, at depths of 6–8 s (TWT), while normal and strike-slip faults commonly form in the upper-crust landward of the 20 km slab-isodepth, and abut against thrust hanging-walls. Observed fault patterns are supported by seabed fault-scarp analysis and are consistent with the distribution and kinematics of earthquake moment-tensors. Analysis of fault-intersections at depth suggests that forearc kinematics are characterized by a fault hierarchy, in which normal and strike-slip faults commonly form as secondary structures above active thrusts, accommodating oblique plate-convergence. Our analysis also highlights a structural division of the forearc into landward- and seaward-verging thrusts, similar to that recorded along the Cascadia and Sumatra margin, with the Hellenic troughs accommodating their geometric transition. Thrust vergence variability likely results from the northward steepening of the underlying plate-interface and marks the across-forearc transition from aseismic to seismic-slip. These significant revisions in understanding of the Hellenic Subduction System and its upper-plate structures are expected to flow into future geodynamic, hydrocarbon-exploration and earthquake hazard models.

How to cite: Mouslopoulou, V., Begg, J., Polonia, A., Nicol, A., Reston, T., Cesca, S., and Gasperini, L.: The Hellenic Subduction System: A revised view of its structure and kinematics, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4914, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4914, 2026.

Coseismic displacement and deformation patterns near seismic rupture zones are crucial for understanding earthquake rupture processes, fault behaviors, and the relationship between active faults and topographic features. Recent advances in sub-meter accuracy digital terrain data derived from high-resolution optical satellite stereo imagery have provided new geodetic approaches for differential topography studies, including three-dimensional coseismic surface displacement field acquisition. This study generated pre- and post-earthquake topographic point cloud data (average point density: 1.2 points/m²) using GF-7 satellite stereo imagery, and obtained a 25-meter spatial resolution three-dimensional coseismic surface displacement field in the near-fault area of the 2025 Dingri, Tibet Mw7.1 earthquake through a window-based (50-meter window size) Iterative Closest Point (ICP) algorithm. The results reveal that the surface rupture of the Dingri earthquake was dominated by vertical displacement with insignificant horizontal motion, consistent with the focal mechanism solutions and field investigations of the rupture zone. The vertical displacement distribution extracted from ICP displacement field exhibits a "high central section with decreasing values northward and southward" pattern, reaching a maximum vertical displacement of ~2.5 m near the central Nixiacuo area, decaying to ~1.2 m northward and ~0.5 m southward. Compared with field measurements, ICP-derived vertical displacements generally exceed field observations, indicating that surface dislocation markers only reflect the minimum coseismic displacement along the rupture zone. The ICP method quantifies cumulative displacement across hundreds of meters on both sides of the rupture, providing critical constraints for studying shallow slip deficit mechanisms and facilitating future investigations of fault slip transfer processes from deep to shallow levels. This study demonstrates the unique advantages of new high-resolution optical satellites in long-term pre-seismic data accumulation, rapid post-seismic data acquisition, and comprehensive coverage of surface deformation zones. These capabilities enable timely construction of near-field 3D coseismic displacement fields, allowing differential topography techniques to measure 3D coseismic deformation in areas inaccessible for LiDAR surveys. This approach effectively compensates for limitations of conventional InSAR and sub-pixel correlation techniques near surface ruptures, where large deformation gradients or insensitivity to vertical displacements often cause measurement failures.

How to cite: Wei, Z., Ma, C., and Deng, Y.: Coseismic Surface Displacements Derived From High-Resolution GF-7 Stereogrammetric Terrain Differencing: The 2025 Tibet Dingri Mw7.1 Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6289, 2026.

EGU26-6526 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.7

Host-Rock Rheology Controls Seismicity Segmentation along the Red River Fault 

zekang Yang, lei Zhang, Sylvain Barbot, and qingbao Duan

The Red River Fault (RRF) presents a significant seismological paradox: its northern segment hosts frequent large earthquakes, whereas its southern segment remains largely quiescent despite similar tectonic loading. To investigate how fault-zone structure and frictional properties govern this seismicity contrast, we sampled outcrops where mylonitic shear zones host multiple layers of cataclasite within the fault core. In the northern segment, the mylonites are dominated by quartz and feldspar, by contrast, the mylonite is hornblende rich in the southern segment. Hydrothermal friction experiments are then conducted on the sampled mylonite and cataclasite fault rocks at 100–500 °C, fluid pressures of 50–100 MPa, and confining pressures of 150–200 MPa, approximating upper-midcrustal earthquake nucleation conditions.

Our experimental results reveal a critical rheological contrast between the two segments. In the aseismic southern segment, the fault core cataclasites exhibit a transition to velocity weakening at intermediate temperatures; however, the surrounding mylonitic host rocks display stable velocity strengthening behavior across nearly the entire temperature range. Conversely, mylonitic host rocks from the seismically active northern segment exhibit unstable velocity weakening behavior over a wide temperature range of 150–500°C. Based on the architecture of the fault and numerical modeling, we propose that the frictional stability of the surrounding mylonitic rock acts as a rheological gate for earthquake propagation. In the south, although nucleation may initiate within the relatively weak and velocity-weakening cataclasite (μ=0.53-0.62), the contrasting stable response of the surrounding mylonite acts as a damper, arresting rupture and suppressing large events. In the north, the unstable velocity-weakening nature of the host rock promotes a "runaway" rupture process, amplifying nucleation events into large earthquakes. These results challenge models focused only on single fault rock properties, highlighting how host-rock rheology modulates seismic hazard along major continental faults.

How to cite: Yang, Z., Zhang, L., Barbot, S., and Duan, Q.: Host-Rock Rheology Controls Seismicity Segmentation along the Red River Fault, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6526, 2026.

EGU26-7442 | Posters on site | TS3.7

Sea-Land correlation of the main seismogenic faults shaping the central Ionian Islands, Greece 

Manon Puisne, Maria Filomena Loreto, Cesar R. Ranero, Athanassios Ganas, Valentina Ferrante, and Paraskevi Nomikou

The central Ionian Islands exhibit the highest seismogenic potential in the central Mediterranean and have therefore been extensively studied to mitigate the seismic risk. Despite numerous investigations over recent decades, the actual seismic hazard affecting the islands remains incompletely constrained.

The work was carried out within the framework of the internship project “Hazard assessment combining geological, geophysical and seismological data offshore Ionian Islands, Greece”, and aims to investigate the location and geometry of the main faults in the offshore area between Zakynthos and Cephalonia and to correlate offshore faults segments identified in the marine domain with their onshore counterparts. Particular attention is given to the Ionian Thrust and to the fault that was responsible for the destructive August 1953 earthquake that devastated Cephalonia Island.

We analyzed a comprehensive geophysical dataset acquired during two marine geophysical surveys: IONIANS 2022 (CNR project) and POSEIDON 2023 (Eurofleet+ project). The dataset includes three high-resolution and two high-penetration multichannel seismic profiles, several kilometers of TOPAS sub-bottom profiles and high-resolution swath bathymetry. Seismic interpretation allowed us to map the Ionian Thrust from south of Zakynthos to Cephalonia and its intersection with the main trace of the Cephalonia strike-slip fault. In the offshore domain, the Ionian Thrust is expressed as west-verging anticline with local transcurrent component. Moreover, in the narrow marine passage between Cephalonia and Zakynthos, we identified a west-verging anticline with transcurrent component which aligns well with the hypothesized epicenter of the 1953 earthquake.

Our interpretations were integrated and compared with existing geological and geophysical models from the literature, enabling the identification of the offshore continuations of fault systems responsible for several historical and instrumental seismic events. By further integrating offshore data with the onshore geology of both islands, we achieved a robust land–sea correlation of the dominant tectonic structure in the area, namely the Ionian Thrust.

Finally, the combined analysis of newly-identified tectonic structures and regional seismicity, allowed us to draw the position and trend of the seismogenic fault source of the 1953 earthquake as well as the active segments of the Ionian Thrust. These new findings strongly improve our understanding of the tectonic framework of the marine area surrounding the central Ionian Islands and provide crucial input for future seismic hazard modeling and risk assessment in this area of the western Hellenic Arc.

How to cite: Puisne, M., Loreto, M. F., Ranero, C. R., Ganas, A., Ferrante, V., and Nomikou, P.: Sea-Land correlation of the main seismogenic faults shaping the central Ionian Islands, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7442, 2026.

EGU26-7615 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.7

Lithospheric Density Structure of the Aegean Region Constrained by 3D Gravity Modelling 

Zsuzsanna Vatai, Magdalena Scheck-Wenderoth, Judith Bott, Mauro Cacace, and Ritske S. Huismans

The region of the Aegean Sea, shaped by the subduction of the African plate beneath the Eurasian plate with the intervening Aegean microplate, is one of the most actively deforming areas in the Mediterranean. This system is characterized by strong lateral variations in its tectonic style, where extension in the back arc region has created rifts like the Rifts of Corinth and Evia; volcanic activity in the Southern Aegean Active Volcanic Arc is associated with active subduction along the Hellenic trench; the lateral ocean–continent transition along the Western Hellenic subduction lead to strain partitioning and the formation of Kefalonia strike slip zone, and major strike-slip deformation accommodated by the North Anatolian transform fault associated with west ward motion of Anatolia. Past and ongoing tectonics resulted in a highly heterogeneous lithospheric configuration, which controls the degree of deformation and its localization as reflected by variations in physical properties of the lithosphere.

We present an updated 3D geological model of the Aegean Sea and Hellenic subduction system, which we use to map first-order rheological contrasts in the lithosphere, being constrained by available seismic and seismological observations and by 3D gravity modelling. The model integrates several datasets, including the EPcrust crustal model, available seismic sections, mantle and crustal tomographies, and observed gravity anomalies. The S- and P- wave velocities of the tomographic datasets were converted to densities in order to consistently map 3D density variations in the lithospheric mantle and the crust.

Preliminary gravity modelling results show a good match with observed gravity, fitting regional trends in gravity anomalies across the study area. In a second stage, we carried out a sensitivity analysis to investigate in more details the effect of lithospheric density variations. Specifically, we focused on the transitional domain between the Moho and the upper mantle, where uncertainties in converting seismic velocities to density remain significant.

The model provides new constraints on density variations in the lithosphere, which, especially with the derived strength and temperature contrasts, help to better understand how deformation localizes in the Aegean region.

How to cite: Vatai, Z., Scheck-Wenderoth, M., Bott, J., Cacace, M., and Huismans, R. S.: Lithospheric Density Structure of the Aegean Region Constrained by 3D Gravity Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7615, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7615, 2026.

The marine area between Chios, Ikaria and Samos islands occupies a key position within the Central Aegean extensional domain, encompassing the offshore segments of several active fault systems, including those responsible for the 30 October 2020 Mw 7.0 Samos earthquake. Despite the significant seismic and tsunami hazards, the subsurface stratigraphic architecture and three-dimensional geometry of active faults in this region are remain poorly constrained. The aim of this study is to present preliminary results of an integrated seismic stratigraphic and structural interpretation based on five multichannel seismic reflection profiles (total length ~364 km) obtained by MTA and reprocessed into SEG-Y format. The study also includes previously published seismic profiles reinterpreted within a tectonostratigraphic framework, as well as high-resolution bathymetric data compiled from SHOD and international sources.

The seismic profiles indicate the presence of a prominent acoustic basement, overlain by a thick Neogene-Quaternary sedimentary succession, characterised by laterally continuous to locally progradational reflector packages. The basement surface exhibits significant relief, featuring a complex network of high-angle normal faults that form a system of asymmetric basins and structural highs. Above the basement, the sedimentary architecture displays a variety of reflector geometries, including parallel, divergent and clinoform patterns. These patterns are indicative of deltaic or slope-related depositional architectures, particularly in the western part of the study area.

Both newly processed and literature seismic sections demonstrate a predominant orientation of NW-SE and NE-SW-striking faults, which is consistent with the present-day Aegean extensional regime. Several of these faults clearly intersect with the shallowest reflectors, thereby indicating Quaternary to potentially present-day activity. The North Ikaria Basin, in particular, exhibits notable fault-controlled subsidence, expressed by thickened sedimentary packages and cumulative vertical displacements. These observations suggest the presence of long-lived tectonic control on basin development.

The three-dimensional correlation of fault planes and key stratigraphic reflectors enables the characterization of the geometry of the basin-bounding structures, and the evaluation of their possible kinematic linkage with the onshore fault systems of western Anatolia and the eastern Aegean islands. The integrated interpretation highlights the role of segmented normal fault systems in controlling basin architecture, sediment distribution patterns and accommodation space during the Neogene-Quaternary evolution of the Central Aegean back-arc domain.

These results provide a first-order seismic stratigraphic and structural framework for the offshore region between Chios, Ikaria and Samos. This framework is the result of the combination of newly reprocessed and legacy seismic datasets, which have been evaluated within a consistent tectonic context. The ongoing analysis will form the basis for detailed fault mapping, thickness distribution and kinematic reconstructions, and will contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between active crustal deformation and seismic hazard in the eastern Aegean region.

How to cite: Elitez, İ.: Active Tectonic Framework and Seismic Stratigraphy of the Central Aegean: The Chios-Ikaria-Samos Marine Area, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8235, 2026.

Modeling crustal deformation induced by fault slip is a fundamental problem in structural geology and seismology. However, the challenges of data sparsity and spatial discontinuity impose significant limitations on conventional forward and inverse methods, often resulting in low computational efficiency and limited accuracy. Although AI-based approaches such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) and Physics-Encoded Finite Element Networks (PEFEN) offer new solutions for sparse-data problems governed by physical laws, their underlying assumption of spatial continuity conflicts with the inherent displacement discontinuities of fault-slip fields. To address this limitation, we propose a novel method—the Split-Node Physics-Encoded Finite Element Network (SN-PEFEN)—which integrates the node-splitting mechanism into the PEFEN framework. By explicitly encoding spatial discontinuities into the nodal topology during mesh preprocessing, SN-PEFEN not only overcomes the theoretical limitations of existing PEFEN models in handling discontinuous fields but also maintains the physical consistency. We apply SN-PEFEN to perform forward and inverse modeling of deformation fields induced by complex fault slip in both 2D and 3D heterogeneous media. For a model with over one million degrees of freedom, the forward simulation achieves over 40× speedup compared to traditional FEM (~1,800s vs. 42s), while maintaining comparable accuracy. In inverse modeling, the solution converges within only 100 iterations, with a total runtime of approximately 2,000 s, demonstrating high computational efficiency. This method establishes a new high-efficiency paradigm for analyzing complex discontinuous deformation in geomechanics, offering promising applications in multi-fault system analysis and fault-slip inversion. Furthermore, SN-PEFEN facilitates rapid, physics-based assessments for emergency seismic response and disaster management, while laying the groundwork for next-generation data-driven regional earthquake early warning systems.

How to cite: Tao, W. and Yang, X.: Split-Node Physics-Encoded Finite-Element Network for Forward and Inverse Modeling of Fault-Slip-Induced Discontinuous Deformation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8731, 2026.

The Xiadian Fault is a major active fault along the northern margin of the North China Plain and is widely considered to be closely associated with the 1679 Sanhe–Pinggu M8.0 earthquake. Compared with its central and southern segments, the northern segment of the Xiadian Fault—particularly within the Pinggu area—remains poorly constrained in terms of its spatial distribution, strike variations, and geometric characteristics, which hampers a comprehensive understanding of its tectonic role and seismic hazard implications. In this region, thick Quaternary deposits extensively cover the surface, and the fault is predominantly concealed, resulting in a lack of clear and continuous surface expressions and increased uncertainty in fault identification and precise location.

In this study, the northern segment of the Xiadian Fault is investigated based on a systematic analysis of regional geological and tectonic settings, combined with multiple shallow seismic reflection profiles oriented in different directions. The seismic responses of the fault within Quaternary strata are analyzed to constrain its planar location, strike changes, and spatial continuity in the Pinggu area. The geometric features and possible segmentation of the fault are further examined, and the tectonic mechanisms responsible for observed strike deflections are discussed in the context of the regional stress field and inherited basement structures. The results provide new geophysical constraints on the detailed geometry of the northern segment of the Xiadian Fault and contribute to an improved understanding of seismotectonics and seismic hazard assessment along the northern margin of the North China Plain.

How to cite: Sun, J.: Spatial Distribution and Geometric Characteristics of the Northern Segment of the Xiadian Fault, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9590, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9590, 2026.

EGU26-10261 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.7

Slip asymmetry of the Yedisu Segment of the North Anatolian Fault from GPS velocity fields 

Oguzhan Tecel, Huseyin Duman, Bekir Poyraz, Fatih Poyraz, Kemal Ozgur Hastaoglu, Fikret Kocbulut, Yavuz Gul, and Abdullah Kapicioglu

The Yedisu Segment is one of the most significant seismic gaps of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), following the segments located near Istanbul. This segment is approximately 80 km long and has remained seismically quiet for about 242 years. It has the potential to generate an earthquake magnitude of greater than Mw 7. The Tercan and Nazımiye dextral faults are located in the vicinity of the Yedisu Segment and exhibit similar strikes of approximately N70–75°W. In this study, slip rates and locking depths of the Yedisu Segment and its neighboring Tercan and Nazımiye faults are estimated by inverting GNSS-derived Eurasia-fixed velocity fields using elastic half-space dislocation models. Velocities from Turkish Real-Time Kinematic GNSS Network (CORS-TR, including a few older stations), Turkish National Fundamental GPS Network (TNFGN), and previously published regional GNSS networks are used, and the inversions are performed using fault-parallel velocity components while accounting for differences in fault strike. Two different forms of elastic half-space dislocation model are tested for the Yedisu Segment: (i) symmetric and (ii) asymmetric fault-slip behavior. The symmetric model yields a Yedisu slip rate of approximately 18.7 mm/yr, while the Nazımiye and Tercan faults contribute only minor deformation to the regional velocity field. The asymmetric model conversely discloses a difference between the south- and north-side of the Yedisu Segment, with slip rates of about 6.5 and 11.9 mm/yr, respectively. The fault slip rate asymmetry correspondes to a ratio of 1.83. The asymmetric model explicits a significantly better fit to the GNSS velocity field than the symmetric approach. Assuming a long-term average slip rate of 18.4 mm/yr, the Yedisu Segment has accumulated approximately 4.45 m of slip deficit over the past 242 years, consistent with the potential for a large, destructive earthquake. These results indicate that the Yedisu seismic gap is highlighting its critical importance for seismic hazard assessment in eastern Türkiye. This research is supported by the TÜBİTAK project No. 124Y204.

Keywords: North Anatolian Fault, Yedisu Segment, GNSS, Fault slip asymmetry, Seismic gap

How to cite: Tecel, O., Duman, H., Poyraz, B., Poyraz, F., Hastaoglu, K. O., Kocbulut, F., Gul, Y., and Kapicioglu, A.: Slip asymmetry of the Yedisu Segment of the North Anatolian Fault from GPS velocity fields, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10261, 2026.

EGU26-10612 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.7

Neighboring but Different: Linking Ground Motions to Source Properties of the November 2025 Cyprus Doublet 

Savvas Marcou, Taka'aki Taira, Iordanis Dimitriadis, Nikolas Papadimitriou, and Sylvana Pilidou

Tectonically complex areas can give rise to large heterogeneity in source properties, which have a direct impact on observed ground motion. On November 12, 2025, the Eastern Mediterranean island of Cyprus experienced two M5+ earthquakes just 5 hours apart. Initial locations by the Cyprus Geological Survey Department put the two epicenters within 2 km of each other, but 10 km apart in depth.  Moment tensor inversions from long-period waveform data show the first event had a magnitude around Mw5.1, with the second event measured at Mw5.4. However, observed peak ground velocity and acceleration amplitudes were almost indistinguishable between the two events. In this work, we revisit these observations and try to reconcile them using joint analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, observed ground motions, and finite fault modeling. We relocate the events using a non-linear, probabilistic location algorithm and model point source moment tensors, showing the events occurred close in space and at a very similar depth. We derive relative moment rate functions (MRFs) for the two events via empirical Green’s function deconvolution. We find the Mw5.1 shows simple, sub-second duration MRFs. On the other hand, the Mw5.4 exhibits multi-peaked, complex MRFs with pulse durations up to 4 times longer than those of the Mw5.1. This suggests a simple, fast rupture in the first event contrasting with a likely slow, sluggish, and complex rupture in the second. We run finite fault modeling to reconcile observed ground shaking with source properties. Finally, we interpret the ruptures in the context of the highly complex tectonics of the Cyprus arc.

How to cite: Marcou, S., Taira, T., Dimitriadis, I., Papadimitriou, N., and Pilidou, S.: Neighboring but Different: Linking Ground Motions to Source Properties of the November 2025 Cyprus Doublet, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10612, 2026.

EGU26-11248 | ECS | Orals | TS3.7

Far-field postseismic deformation of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet 

Volkan Özbey, Henry Pierre, Romain Jolivet, Sylvain Barbot, Paul Derand, Mehmet Sinan Özeren, Sylvain Michel, Konstantinos Chousinatis, and Semih Ergintav

On 6 February 2023, a major earthquake doublet (Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.6) ruptured the Anatolian plate boundary system. The first event occurred on the East Anatolian Fault (EAF), the principal plate-boundary zone between the Arabian and Eurasian plates, and the second ruptured the Çardak fault north of the western termination of the EAF. Continuous GNSS observations acquired in the months following the sequence indicate that deformation is not confined to the near-fault region: GNSS time series reveal substantial changes relative to pre-event interseismic velocities over distances of several hundred kilometers. These deviations extend northward across the North Anatolian Fault toward the Black Sea coast and westward across the Central Anatolian Plateau. Furthermore, seismicity rates appear to have been perturbed at locations far from the rupture area, and early postseismic investigations have suggested a measurable far-field signal, particularly to the west of the main rupture zones. Given the magnitude of the sequence and the dense regional geodetic coverage, this earthquake doublet provides an exceptional opportunity to investigate earthquake-cycle processes and to constrain spatial variations in rheological properties of fault zones and the surrounding lithosphere within an actively deforming tectonic setting.

We characterize the postseismic deformation of the far-field domain spanning from eastern Anatolia to the western Hellenic trench using regional GNSS networks. For each station, we isolate the transient component by removing the secular (interseismic) contribution using interseismic velocity fields estimated from long-duration pre-earthquake time series. We then extract coherent postseismic signals from the GNSS residuals using Independent Component Analysis (ICA) implemented in a variational Bayesian framework. To interpret the recovered far-field transients, we perform forward viscoelastic modeling to evaluate contrasts in crustal and lithospheric structure and rheology, and we test sensitivity to alternative coseismic rupture models derived primarily from space-geodetic constraints employing different strategies. We further examine the role of major far-field tectonic structures, particularly the Hellenic trench to the southwest and the Cyprus arc to the southeast, on the observed deformation patterns. Finally, we assess the relationship between postseismic deformation and seismicity by comparing far-field seismic activity with postseismic strain-rate fields inferred from the GNSS displacements, using the VDoHS (Vertical Derivatives of Horizontal Stress rates) approach.

How to cite: Özbey, V., Pierre, H., Jolivet, R., Barbot, S., Derand, P., Özeren, M. S., Michel, S., Chousinatis, K., and Ergintav, S.: Far-field postseismic deformation of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11248, 2026.

EGU26-11444 | Orals | TS3.7

On the potential seasonality of seismicity along the North Anatolian Fault, Marmara region 

Jorge Jara, Patricia Martínez-Garzón, Muharren Hilmi Erkoç, and Ugur Dogan

Seasonal modulation of seismicity has been reported in several regions worldwide, suggesting that earthquake occurrence may be sensitive to small, time-dependent stress perturbations. Such observations point to a range of hydro-meteorological processes that can generate seasonal stress changes, including variations in groundwater storage, rainfall, snow accumulation and melt, and sea-level fluctuations. Although the associated stress amplitudes are typically small, often of the order of a few kilopascals, they may influence the temporal distribution of seismicity. The mechanical response of faults to such forcings may involve different processes, including elastic loading and unloading, as well as poro-elastic and thermo-elastic effects.

Recently, seismicity associated with an active hydro-thermal system in the eastern Marmara Sea has been shown to respond to temporal variations in sea level. In this setting, sea-level changes induce small vertical loading variations that generate stress perturbations of a few kilopascals, sufficient to modulate seismicity timing in a critically stressed, fluid-rich crust. Here, we extend the study area to examine whether seasonal variations in the Marmara Sea level are associated with seismicity variations across the entire Marmara region, with a particular focus on seismic activity along the North Anatolian Fault Zone.

We analyze seismicity using an earthquake catalog covering the Marmara region for the period 2006–2024. The catalog is declustered using an adaptable Random Forest–based approach to isolate background seismicity and reduce the influence of aftershock sequences. Temporal variations in background seismicity are then examined using Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA) and Multi-Seasonal Trend decomposition using Loess (MSTL), enabling the identification of independent seasonal components in seismicity rates. The resulting seasonal signals are compared with independent observations of surface loading, including GRACE-derived mass variations and Marmara Sea level changes derived from satellite altimetry and local tide-gauge records. We use these comparisons to assess the mechanisms controlling the seasonal variability observed in the seismicity catalog.






How to cite: Jara, J., Martínez-Garzón, P., Erkoç, M. H., and Dogan, U.: On the potential seasonality of seismicity along the North Anatolian Fault, Marmara region, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11444, 2026.

The double earthquakes (Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.5) that occurred in eastern Turkey on February 6, 2023, caused heavy casualties and economic losses, and significantly altered the regional tectonic stress environment. The Malatya Fault, as a key active structure in the area, has experienced a 2,500-year gap without surface-rupturing large earthquakes, raising concerns about its potential seismic hazard. This study, based on high-precision relocated aftershock data from the Turkish double earthquakes and multi-source geological and geophysical data, precisely constructed the three-dimensional geometric structure of the Malatya Fault and the fault that generated the earthquakes. On this basis, combined with geodetic data constraints, a three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element model of the eastern Turkey region was established. This study aims to quantitatively calculate the coseismic and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation effects of the double earthquakes on the Coulomb stress loading characteristics of the Malatya Fault through numerical simulation methods, and analyze the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of stress along the fault strike and at depth. By integrating the fault's own seismogenic background and tectonic loading environment, a comprehensive assessment of the current seismic hazard of the Malatya Fault is conducted, providing a scientific basis for understanding the stress interaction between faults and regional earthquake prevention and disaster reduction.

How to cite: Li, H.: Numerical Simulation Study on Seismic Hazard of the Malatya Fault, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11516, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11516, 2026.

EGU26-13575 | Posters on site | TS3.7

High-Resolution Seismic Analysis of the Marmara Sea: Microseismic Activity from OBS Data and Nearly-Repeating Earthquakes 

Nilay Basarir Basturk, Hayrullah Karabulut, and Nurcan Meral Özel

The Main Marmara Fault beneath the Marmara Sea constitutes a major seismic gap capable of generating a large earthquake, posing a serious hazard to the region and its surroundings. Consequently, detailed characterization of seismicity and its relationship to fault-zone deformation is essential. One of the primary objectives of this study is to compile a seismicity database for the Marmara Sea covering the period 2014–2016, based primarily on data recorded by ocean-bottom seismometers.

The detected and relocated seismicity reveals distinct spatial and depth-dependent patterns among the Marmara basins. The Tekirdağ Basin is characterized by diffuse seismicity at depths of approximately 7–18 km. In contrast, the Central Basin exhibits a high rate of microearthquake activity between 3 and 15 km depth. The Kumburgaz Basin and the western part of the Çınarcık Basin, show sparse seismicity within depth ranges of 5–19 km and 3–18 km, respectively.

Previously identified repeating earthquakes were searched  using a template-matching approach applied to continuous seismic waveforms spanning a larger time frame of 2008–2021. Clusters of highly correlated earthquakes that occur closely in time or partially overlap are classified as near-repeating events. The Central Basin displays clear signatures of seismic creep, marked by both elevated seismicity rates and the presence of nine near-repeating earthquake clusters. Focal mechanisms of these clusters indicate dominantly strike-slip motion, consistent with the kinematics  of the Main Marmara Fault. Two distinct recurrence patterns are observed among the near-repeaters, representing short-term and long-term repeating behaviors. Slip-rate estimates derived from these clusters vary spatially but are broadly comparable to geodetic slip rates. 

How to cite: Basarir Basturk, N., Karabulut, H., and Meral Özel, N.: High-Resolution Seismic Analysis of the Marmara Sea: Microseismic Activity from OBS Data and Nearly-Repeating Earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13575, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13575, 2026.

Natural processes such as tectonic movements, subsidence, erosion, and hydrological variability continuously modify the coastline and basin morphology. Understanding these changes is essential for interpreting the dynamics of coastal and lacustrine systems and their responses to both gradual and sudden events. In this study, basin-scale deformation and environmental dynamics of Lake Golbasi (Adiyaman, Türkiye) were investigated within the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), where one of the main fault branches passes directly through the Golbasi district. The Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaras earthquake that occurred on February 6, 2023, caused significant surface deformation, coastline reconfiguration, and localized subsidence, highlighting the strong coupling between tectonic activity and surface processes in the region. Time-dependent ground deformation was monitored using InSAR time-series analysis based on Sentinel-1 C-band SAR data acquired in both ascending and descending geometries and processed through the LiCSBAS framework and the ASF HyP3 cloud-based processing system, covering the period from 2021 to 2025. This temporal coverage allows the investigation of pre- and post-earthquake deformation and coastline changes, as well as their spatial and temporal relationship with the active fault system in the Golbasi Basin. The tectonic interpretation of the observed deformation features was further supported through an evaluation of the orientation and spatial position of the identified surface deformation patterns relative to mapped fault traces, post-earthquake surface ruptures, and the distribution of seismic activity. The Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was applied to optical Sentinel-2 imagery to better characterize the basin’s dynamic environmental conditions and to support the interpretation of the observed deformation signals. Seasonal NDWI variations between dry and wet periods were examined to assess changes in water extent and shoreline position. This information was essential for distinguishing surface variability related to hydrological processes from deformation driven by tectonic activity. The integrated analysis reveals a complex interaction between tectonic deformation, seasonal water-level fluctuations, and basin-scale environmental dynamics. These findings improve our understanding of post-earthquake changes in the Golbasi Basin and offer explanations for how fault-controlled lakes and wetlands evolve and gradually stabilize following major seismic events.

How to cite: Uçar, A. and Ergintav, S.: InSAR Time-Series Analysis of Basin-Scale Deformation and Environmental Dynamics in the Golbasi Basin (Adiyaman, Türkiye), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17323, 2026.

Co-seismic deformation in fault damage zones manifests as a combination of localized slip and distributed deformation. Accurately quantifying the ratio between these two components is essential for understanding displacement partitioning and assessing near-fault seismic damage. Focusing on the widespread ruptures caused by the 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake doublet (Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.6), this study utilizes optical satellite geodesy to dissect the deformation characteristics of the East Anatolian Fault Zone. We integrated high-resolution GaoFen-7 orthophotos (0.8 m) and Sentinel-2 imagery to distinguish between on-fault and off-fault deformation. Localized slip was measured by tracing displaced linear markers (e.g., roads, ridges), while the total horizontal displacement field was reconstructed using optical displacement tracking. By comparing total displacement across dense profiles against localized slip, we isolated the distributed component. Results show that for the Mw 7.8 event, 80% of displacement was localized, with 20% distributed across a 203-meter-wide zone. Similarly, the Mw 7.6 event exhibited 17% distributed deformation within a 141-meter-wide zone. Notably, we observe that the spatial heterogeneity of deformation is strongly controlled by the pre-existing geometric complexity of the fault system. These findings provide critical constraints for fault displacement hazard models.

How to cite: xi, X., li, C., li, T., and wei, Z.: Characteristics of Distributed Deformation in the 2023 Turkey Earthquake Doublet Fault Zone Revealed by Optical Geodesy, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17537, 2026.

EGU26-18830 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.7

Highlights of current activity along EAF-Palu, NAF-Yedisu segments and Karlıova Triple Junction:Following the 2020 (Mw 6.8 Sivrice) and 2023 (Mw 7.8-7.6 Kahramanmaras) earthquakes 

Figen Eskikoy, Semih Ergintav, Taylan Sancar, Alpay Ozdemir, Ziyadin Cakir, Onur Tan, Rahsan Cakmak, Efe Turan Ayruk, Muhammed Turgut, Binali Bilal Beytut, and Ugur Dogan

Recent studies have shown that large earthquakes can induce deformation at distances significantly greater than those predicted by simple elastic half-space models. This observation indicates that regional-scale effects must be considered when assessing post-earthquake deformation and seismic hazard. Several studies have demonstrated that the 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet (Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.6) affected distant regions in addition to the immediately ruptured faults.

Within the scope of our project, supported by TÜBİTAK 1001 (Project No. 123Y350), we investigate the current fault activity and seismic hazard of fault segments located north of the 2020 Mw 6.8 Sivrice earthquake and the 2023 Mw 7.8–7.6 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. Our approach integrates multidisciplinary datasets, including seismology, geodesy (GNSS, InSAR, and creepmeters), and geology (morphometric analyses). The study area comprises the East Anatolian Fault (EAF)–Palu segment, the North Anatolian Fault (NAF)–Yedisu segment, and the Karlıova Triple Junction (KTJ).

Following the 2020 Mw 6.8 Sivrice earthquake, seismicity increased along several sections of the EAF. Initially, aftershocks were concentrated within the rupture zone and subsequently migrated southwestward, while no significant increase in seismicity was observed along the Palu segment to the north. Approximately three years later, the Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence (Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.6) occurred on 6 February 2023, after which seismic activity expanded over a broad region along the EAF. Compared to the ruptured areas and their immediate surroundings, seismicity remained relatively sparse along the northern sections of the EAF, where our study area is located.

The Palu segment lies adjacent to the NE the Sivrice earthquake rupture zone and forms part of the EAF, whereas the Yedisu segment, located on the NAF, is characterized by a long-term slip deficit and is considered a seismic gap. The Karlıova Triple Junction represents the intersection of the North and East Anatolian faults and exhibits a complex faulting system resulting from active continental collision. Each of these fault segments displays distinct kinematic characteristics and has been affected by the 2020 and 2023 earthquakes to varying degrees.

The current seismicity distribution within the study area (Palu, Yedisu, and KTJ) indicates that earthquake clusters observed prior to these large events remain active, with no anomalous seismic behavior identified to date. Despite the relatively low level of seismicity along the Palu segment compared to the main rupture zones, geodetic observations suggest that its well-known creep velocity has accelerated following the 2020 and 2023 earthquakes. In addition, we investigate the relationship between long-term and present-day geodetic deformation rates, morphological indicators, and slip deficits along active fault branches using continuous and campaign GNSS measurements together with InSAR data. These multidisciplinary datasets, currently under preparation, will be integrated intofault interaction modeling and seismic hazard assessments for the region at the conclusion of the project.

How to cite: Eskikoy, F., Ergintav, S., Sancar, T., Ozdemir, A., Cakir, Z., Tan, O., Cakmak, R., Ayruk, E. T., Turgut, M., Beytut, B. B., and Dogan, U.: Highlights of current activity along EAF-Palu, NAF-Yedisu segments and Karlıova Triple Junction:Following the 2020 (Mw 6.8 Sivrice) and 2023 (Mw 7.8-7.6 Kahramanmaras) earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18830, 2026.

EGU26-19632 | Orals | TS3.7

Potential interactions between seismicity, fluid behaviours and aseismic deformation in the Western Sea of Marmara 

Jean-Baptiste Tary, Louis Géli, Chastity Aiken, Clement Rayer, Yojiro Yamamoto, Dogan Kalafat, Ali Pinar, and Nurcan Meral Özel

The northern strand of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in the Sea of Marmara show a high seismic activity, including the recent Mw 6.2 earthquake of April 23, 2025, situated southwest of Istanbul. This fault zone is also characterized by different mechanical behaviours (i.e., locked vs creeping) and often associated with fluid evidences. In this study, we focus on the western part of the NAF in the Sea of Marmara, where aseismic deformation has often been reported to be at work. We use recordings from two piezometers, three ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) from INGV, and three OBSs from KOERI, deployed around the Western High and the Tekirdağ Basin, to analyse the seismic activity between October 2013 and August 2014, and study potential links with pore pressure variations, a slow-slip event (SSE) that could have occurred during this period, and a Mw 4.6 earthquake that took place on November 27, 2013.This seismic network is completed by 11 land seismological stations to improve the microseismicity location accuracy.

In total, 2079 events were detected during the recording period, of which 409 events remained after double-difference relocation. We here identify a sequence of 21 highly-similar foreshocks during the week preceding the Mw 4.6 mainshock, aligned along sidewall faults in the Central Basin. This sequence coincides with the possible existence of a several months-long SSE propagating westwards, based on the interpretation of onshore geodetic data and offshore surface sediment pore pressure data. The foreshock occurrence, as well as the timing of the pore pressure variations measured within the fault valley, are compatible with the hypothesis that the modelled SSE impacted first the foreshock-mainshock sequence, and then fluid conditions within the NAF valley at the piezometer locations. Our results demonstrate that the combination of seafloor piezometry and seismology may prove very useful to study interactions between fluids and fault zone deformation, including preparatory phases of earthquakes.

How to cite: Tary, J.-B., Géli, L., Aiken, C., Rayer, C., Yamamoto, Y., Kalafat, D., Pinar, A., and Meral Özel, N.: Potential interactions between seismicity, fluid behaviours and aseismic deformation in the Western Sea of Marmara, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19632, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19632, 2026.

EGU26-20058 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.7

The Crucial Link Between Sedimentation and the Activity of the Pull - Apart Basins Revealed by Models and Observations Over Aegean-Anatolia 

Ali Koçak, Oğuz Hakan Göğüş, Ömer Bodur, and Can Aslan
Large scale strike slip (transform or transfer) faults are associated with releasing bends that evolve into deep, asymmetric pull-apart basins/rhomb grabens. While kinematics and the geometric characteristics of these basins are well-understood in the context of regional stress field, within the exception of few studies, geological and geophysical constraints are not often compared and contrasted against geodynamic models. Here we investigate the tectonic controls on the formation of several pull apart basins in the Aegean-Anatolia region through integrating high resolution geodynamic models into a large number of geological (structural) data. Specifically, we investigate the evolution of transtensional basins using high-resolution 3D geodynamic models (ASPECT) coupled with a landscape evolution code (FastScape). Model results show that the  development of the transtentional basins over million years are function of several primary factors, including the interaction between pace of sedimentation, and the faulting (shear zone formation). In some cases, especially in the Kocaçay basin of the western Anatolia extended terrane, shallow dipping detachment faults control the supra detachment basin formation where continuous sedimentation of the Miocene deposits (1300 m thick) possibly kept the basin active. Overall, the sediment loading amplifies crustal thinning and this explains the evolution of pull-aparts of the North Anatolian fault, for example Erzincan basin in the east where thick alluvial and lacustrine sedimentary cover is not a passive feature rather control the driver of the basin’s structural persistence.
 

How to cite: Koçak, A., Göğüş, O. H., Bodur, Ö., and Aslan, C.: The Crucial Link Between Sedimentation and the Activity of the Pull - Apart Basins Revealed by Models and Observations Over Aegean-Anatolia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20058, 2026.

EGU26-20258 | Orals | TS3.7

The 2025 Balıkesir Sındırgı (Türkiye) Mw 6.1 Doublet:  Insights from InSAR and Seismology 

Ahmet M. Akoğlu, Ahmet Ökeler, Mehmet Ergin, Ekrem Zor, M. Cengiz Tapırdamaz, Fatih Sevim, Cem Açıkgöz, Mustafa Koşma, and Adil Tarancıoğlu

The recent 2025 sequence that occurred near Sındırgı, a town in Balıkesir (western Türkiye) started with a Mw 6.1 earthquake on August 10th (Sunday, 19:53 local time) on the westernmost part of the Simav graben. The normal faulting event was initially reported to be on the Sındırgı fault since the epicentre was located along its surface trace. As per the Turkish Active Faults Database, the fault is considered as one of the seven active segments of the Simav Fault Zone. Initial coseismic models calculated using the Sentinel-1 radar images acquired 24 hours after the earthquake revealed that the event could not have occurred on the proposed Sındırgı fault but on an unknown fault either to its south or its north. However, it also became evident that fault plane ambiguity could not be resolved using InSAR alone.

To aid in resolving this ambiguity and to monitor the distribution of the aftershocks TÜBİTAK Marmara Research Center’s Earth Sciences Research Group installed a temporary 16-station seismic network in the area. Using artificial intelligence techniques the spatiotemporal evolution of the seismic activity was determined using >30.000 relocated aftershocks. The seismic data favors the north dipping fault plane which intersects the surface about 7 km south of the Sındırgı fault.

A second Mw 6.1 event took place about two months later on October 27th (Monday, 22:48 local time).  Both InSAR and the aftershocks distribution clearly exhibit that the event had occurred this time on a portion of a known fault to the east of the first mainshock. The coseismic models validate the strike slip dominant nature of the faulting that took place again within a depth range of 5 to 12 km on a ~60° south dipping fault.

The two earthquakes are the biggest to occur along the Simav Fault Zone since the 1970 M7.1 Gediz earthquake. In this study, the spatiotemporal evolution of the sequence will be discussed using both InSAR time series and seismic data as well as the elevated seismic hazard in the region where the activity was still continuing as of January 2026.

 

How to cite: Akoğlu, A. M., Ökeler, A., Ergin, M., Zor, E., Tapırdamaz, M. C., Sevim, F., Açıkgöz, C., Koşma, M., and Tarancıoğlu, A.: The 2025 Balıkesir Sındırgı (Türkiye) Mw 6.1 Doublet:  Insights from InSAR and Seismology, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20258, 2026.

EGU26-20721 | Posters on site | TS3.7

The Active Fault Database of Türkiye: Framework, Methodology, and Ongoing Revisions by the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA 

Hasan Elmacı, Akın Kürçer, Gözde Altuntaş, Hakan Aydoğan, Ali Atalay Yüce, Hasret Ozan Avcı, Ozan Karayazı, Ahmet Bayrak, Ahmet Rasimcan Öztürker, Çağatay Çal, Oğuzhan Yalvaç, Can Güven, and Selim Özalp

Active fault mapping and fault databases are fundamental components of seismic hazard assessment, land-use planning, and disaster risk reduction in tectonically active regions. The effectiveness of such databases critically depends on their ability to integrate paleoseismological evidence, surface rupture observations, and consistent fault characterization across multiple spatial scales. Türkiye, located within the actively deforming Alpine–Himalayan orogenic belt, provides an important natural laboratory for evaluating how national-scale active fault databases can be systematically updated and improved.
The General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA), the national geological survey of Türkiye, has conducted active fault and paleoseismological investigations since the 1970s. These efforts led to the publication of successive editions of the Active Fault Map of Türkiye, first at a scale of 1:1.000,000 in 1992 and later updated to 1:1.250.000 in 2013 following the 1999 Gölcük (Mw 7.4) and Düzce (Mw 7.2) earthquakes. The 2013 map has since served as the primary reference for seismic hazard studies in Türkiye.
Within the framework of nationwide paleoseismology and crustal research projects, trench-based investigations had been completed by the end of 2025 on approximately 250 faults or fault segments included in the 2013 database. These studies resulted in revised fault activity classifications, updated segmentation models, and the identification of nearly 100 previously unmapped active faults. In addition, major surface-rupturing earthquakes, including the 2020 Sivrice (Mw 6.8) event and the catastrophic 2023 Kahramanmaraş doublet earthquakes (Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.6), produced more than 600 km of surface ruptures that were systematically documented and mapped by MTA.
In order to incorporate these new datasets, MTA conducted the “Revision and Improvement of the Active Fault Map of Türkiye Project” between 2022 and 2025. This project integrated paleoseismological data, detailed surface rupture mapping, and 1:25.000-scale active fault maps into a unified digital Active Fault Database. The resulting 1:1,000,000-scale Active Fault Map of Türkiye was generated through the digitization and integration of high-resolution fault data.
This contribution presents the methodological framework, data structure, and revision strategy of the Active Fault Database of Türkiye, emphasizing approaches that are applicable to other tectonically active regions worldwide. The results demonstrate how integrating paleoseismology, earthquake surface ruptures, and multi-scale fault mapping significantly enhances the reliability of active fault databases, with direct implications for seismic hazard assessment, urban resilience, and disaster risk mitigation in regions affected by distributed deformation.

How to cite: Elmacı, H., Kürçer, A., Altuntaş, G., Aydoğan, H., Yüce, A. A., Avcı, H. O., Karayazı, O., Bayrak, A., Öztürker, A. R., Çal, Ç., Yalvaç, O., Güven, C., and Özalp, S.: The Active Fault Database of Türkiye: Framework, Methodology, and Ongoing Revisions by the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20721, 2026.

EGU26-487 | ECS | Posters on site | TS6.1

Characterisation of the active tectonics in the outer Arunachal Himalaya, India: Insights from tectono-geomorphic analysis  

Girindra Bora, Bashab Nandan Mahanta, and Tapos Kumar Goswami

The Himalayan fold-thrust belt, formed due to the collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates, during ~50 Ma, shows the long-term convergence with crustal shortening, duplex development, out-of-sequence thrusting and deformations of the foreland basins. The outer Arunachal Himalaya, in the southern part of the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis, is one of the most tectonically active areas in the Himalayan arc. Frequent earthquakes of several magnitudes, accompanied by associated ground failures, liquefactions, and subsidence in the foreland basins, as well as significant changes in river courses, indicate prominent surface manifestations that reveal ongoing deformations. Documentation of uplifted and truncated terraces, unpaired terraces, soft-sediment deformation structures, warped and tilted Quaternary layers, strath terraces and fault scarps collectively suggest active deformation along the frontal fold-thrust belt. This study integrates morphometric analysis, river terrace mapping and characterisation of paleoseismic evidences to assess active tectonics in the area. Key morphometric indices derived from remotely sensed datasets, including mountain-front sinuosity (Smf), drainage basin asymmetry (Af), transverse topographic symmetry factor (T), valley floor width-to-height ratio (Vf), stream length-gradient (SL), hypsometric integral (HI), and elongation ratio (El), consistently shows strong tectonic influence in the area. The narrow, V-shaped valleys and steep channel gradients further support ongoing upliftment in the region. Lineament mapping reveals structural trends parallel to the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) that align with the regional stress field. It is worth mentioning that the upliftment along the HFT is not uniform, leading to the development of unpaired terraces. Additionally, NW-SE and NE-SW transverse faults have segmented the mountain front, that triggered channel offsets and changes in the river widths, and also contributed to the formation of minor pull-apart basins. These transverse structures, along with the south-verging thrust system, are crucial for distribution of strain across the frontal Arunachal Himalayas. Documentation of active scarps, deformed terraces, and related landscape features are crucial for understanding the relation between surface deformation, fault activity, and seismic risk in this highly active part of the orogenic belt.

Keywords: Active tectonics, HFT, Geomorphic evidences, Frontal Arunachal Himalaya.

How to cite: Bora, G., Mahanta, B. N., and Goswami, T. K.: Characterisation of the active tectonics in the outer Arunachal Himalaya, India: Insights from tectono-geomorphic analysis , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-487, 2026.

EGU26-913 | ECS | Orals | TS6.1

Assessing Quaternary shortening through trishear kinematic models at the Andean Orogenic Front, Southern Precordillera, Argentina 

Victoria Alvarellos, Carlos Costa, Lucia Sagripanti, Lucia Jagoe, Andres Richard, and Andres Folguera

The active orogenic front of Southern Central Andes, at the latitude of ~32°-33°S, is located in the foothills of the Southern Precordillera. This region lies within a flat-slab subduction setting, which defines an area of very high seismic hazard characterized by Quaternary deformation and intense shallow-crustal seismicity. The active deformation in this area is focused on the easternmost thrusts of the Southern Precordillera, particularly along the Las Peñas-Las Higueras range (32°10’-32°45’S). The Las Peñas Thrust System (LPTS) bounds the range to the east and propagates towards the piedmont through both surface-reaching and blind thrusts. Numerous fault and fold scarps, characterized by a N-S strike and eastward vergence, have been active since Pliocene-Pleistocene times, with the most recent expressions located at the easternmost piedmont.

Toward the southern end of the Las Higueras-Las Peñas range, the thrust front corresponds to a transposed east-verging anticline, which becomes blind in the study area of Baños Colorados Creek. Before its geomorphic signature is fully lost towards the south, the morphotectonic expression of the LPTS in this creek shows discontinuous remnants of deformed quaternary alluvial deposits lying unconformably over neogene units. These deposits define fold-limb scarps ~300 m long and with scarp heights ranging from 20 to 45 m. Such exposures provide a unique opportunity to estimate shortening in neotectonic blind thrusts that exhume the bedrock. They also allow quantification of deformation in the hanging wall, where geological markers are commonly removed by erosion. This setting provides an exceptional opportunity to estimate deformation by considering the contribution of adjacent blocks (off-fault analysis), offering key insights into how quaternary deformation is distributed along the SCLP. Moreover, until now, the activity of this thrust system had been evaluated exclusively through indicators obtained directly at the fault zone and its immediate surroundings (on-fault), so this analysis represents a complementary and significant contribution.

We calculated quaternary shortening applying fault-propagation fold models based on the trishear concept using both the reconstructed topography of alluvial surfaces and stratigraphic layers as deformation markers, surveyed with high-resolution techniques (UAV and DGNSS). Shortening rates of 0.17-0.50 mm/yr were obtained for 13-16 ka surfaces, while minimum shortening of 15.6-36.76 m was estimated for an older surface (>13-16 ka and likely <200 ka).

Although estimating shortening rates on blind thrusts involves significant uncertainties, our results refine the characterization of the seismogenic sources affecting the surroundings of Mendoza city, one of the most populated in Argentina, where hazard assessments remain outdated and do not adequately incorporate blind-fault activity.

How to cite: Alvarellos, V., Costa, C., Sagripanti, L., Jagoe, L., Richard, A., and Folguera, A.: Assessing Quaternary shortening through trishear kinematic models at the Andean Orogenic Front, Southern Precordillera, Argentina, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-913, 2026.

EGU26-1639 | ECS | Orals | TS6.1

First Paleoseismological Trench in Northwestern France: A Multidisciplinary Study along the South Armorican Shear Zone. 

Mina Vazifehdar, Clément Perrin, Jean-François Ritz, Mickaël Bonnin, Romain Le Roux-Mallouf, Éric Beucler, Stéphane Mazzotti, Guillaume Guérin, Hugues Malservet, Laurent Lenta, Stéphane Pochat, Damien Fligiel, and Susan Conway

The South Armorican Southern Shear Zone (SASSZ), located in the northwestern France within the Armorican Massif, represents a major structural feature inherited from the Variscan orogeny. Although this region is now far from active plate boundaries and characterized by very low strain rates (i.e. 10-9 yr-1), it’s characterized by a moderate and diffuse seismicity associated with a few large events (up to M~5), suggesting possible fault reactivations.

This study integrates high-resolution mapping, geophysical investigations, and paleoseismic trenching to decipher the SASSZ structure and its possible quaternary activity. Based on high-resolution DEMs (LiDAR, RGEALTI from IGN), the analysis of morphological scarps along the SASSZ shows a wide range of surface trace complexities (bends, secondary splays, step-overs, gaps) associated with initial ductile and more recent brittle deformation. The width of the deformation zone around the SASSZ can reach up to 4 km, alternating between a localized and a distributed shear zone from the Pointe du Raz to Nantes. These measurements are in agreement with slope measurements performed along the SASSZ: the wider the deformation zone (> 0.3 km), the lower the maximum and mean slopes associated with the scarps.

Three geophysical surveys were conducted at sites of interest, along the SASSZ, in order to connect observed scarps at the surface with variations in crustal physical properties. They reveal distinct resistivity contrasts consistent with surface scarp locations. At the Moulin Quilly site, two paleoseismic trenches were excavated across two sub-parallel scarps. Trench 1 across the main surface scarp is not associated with a clear lithological contrast. However, the foliated granitoids are affected by several families of fractures oriented from N50°E to N120°E. The main structure is located at the base of the scarp and is made of sub-horizontal goethite deposits filling a N120°E trending open fracture of 10 cm wide, in the same direction as the SASSZ. Trench 2 crosses a secondary scarp and is divided in to three main structural units: (1) a slightly weathered granite unit preserving subvertical foliation and affected by cryogenic processes dated between 20 and 30 ka (from Optically Stimulated Luminescence dates on sand deposits); (2) a narrow transition unit, associated with a high-strain zone showing sub-vertical fabrics filled by sands; and (3) a fine-grained, strongly altered ultramylonite unit dipping 15°–25° northeast. All units are covered by an undeformed modern soil. From the subvertical fabrics in the transition unit, oriented samples were collected for microstructural analysis. Thin sections in the altered fabric show well-oriented minerals, alteration veins, and kinematic indicators that document higher deformation and alteration processes than in the granite. Further analyses will be conducted to quantify the strain distribution, in close comparison with the dating results.

Our study highlights a brittle deformation phase of the SASSZ, either linked to a recent tectonic activity, or associated with the Mesozoic regional extension, but the latter raises questions about the preservation of surface morphology through geological times. Future dating results of goethite deposits will help clarify whether the brittle fractures and their subsequent infilling reflect quaternary activity or an older phase of deformation.

How to cite: Vazifehdar, M., Perrin, C., Ritz, J.-F., Bonnin, M., Le Roux-Mallouf, R., Beucler, É., Mazzotti, S., Guérin, G., Malservet, H., Lenta, L., Pochat, S., Fligiel, D., and Conway, S.: First Paleoseismological Trench in Northwestern France: A Multidisciplinary Study along the South Armorican Shear Zone., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1639, 2026.

EGU26-2839 | Posters on site | TS6.1

The geomorphic erosive record of past earthquakes: Examples from the Palomares Fault (Almería-Murcia, SE Spain). 

Pablo G. Silva Barroso, Javier Elez, Teresa Bardaí, Raúl Pérez-López, Miguel Ángel Rodríguez-Pascua, Jorge L. Giner, and Elvira Roquero

The Palomares fault (PLF) in SE Spain is the first tectonic structure with recognized quaternary activity within the Iberian Peninsula in the early 1970 decade. Together with the well-known Lorca-Alhama de Murcia fault (LAF) delineates the so-called Eastern Betic Shear Zone, a large (>180 km length) crustal scale left-lateral strike-slip fault zone crossing-cut across the Betic Cordillera in a SSW-NNE orientation and subject to present low strain and convergence rates (< 4 mm/yr). Whilst the LAF displays clear evidence of Holocene tectonics and historical to recent seismic activity (i.e., 5.1 Mw 2011 Lorca Earthquake), the PLF present scarce to null instrumental seismic records. However, the PLF shows relevant geomorphic and stratigraphic evidence of past Middle to Late Pleistocene seismic activity and scarce historical seismic records. Only the strong EMS X 1518 AD Vera Earthquake in Almería (6.7 Mw) can be theoretically related to this fault, but present seismic records are nearly null.

The present contribution provides support for the recurrent paleoseismic activity of the PLF during the Middle-late Pleistocene with clear morpho-stratigraphic records between the vicinity of the village of Palomares to the south (Almería) to northern localities, such Purias (Murcia). This means about 60 km of Quaternary tectonics nicely preserved in a fault segment, which has been recently considered no-faulted by theoretical approaches based on geophysical-gravity data. Whatever the case, the present contribution indicates that quaternary faulting occurs along the entire fault length, but the degree of fault activity (in timing and slip) largely decreases from south to north.  Fault kinematics also varies from nearly pure left-lateral strike-slip to a dominant reverse component south to north according to the progressive westerly bending of the PLF trace. Is in the northern segment where older deformations are present and erosional processes (i.e. gullying) nicely interplayed with fault activity generating deep furrows along the fault zone later refilled by renewed alluvial sediments and subsequently deformed by repeated paleoseismic activity. In other words, the PLF shows unique examples of the erosive record of past earthquakes, illustrating the potentially rich variety of geomorphic evidence for past seismic activity in low strain regions, even in absence of the typical tecto-sedimentary fault records, common in southern locations of this fault.

Acknowledgements: This contribution is supported by the Spanish Research Project I+D+i PID2021-123510OB-I00 (QTECIBERIA-USAL) funded by the MICIN AEI/10.13039/501100011033/.

How to cite: Silva Barroso, P. G., Elez, J., Bardaí, T., Pérez-López, R., Rodríguez-Pascua, M. Á., Giner, J. L., and Roquero, E.: The geomorphic erosive record of past earthquakes: Examples from the Palomares Fault (Almería-Murcia, SE Spain)., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2839, 2026.

Modern global warming causes enhanced melting of ice bodies and desiccation of lakes worldwide. The surface mass changes that occurred over the past decades were sufficiently large to cause discernible crustal deformation and alterations of seismicity patterns in the respective regions. As these climatically induced mass changes will continue to affect continental interiors in the future, assessing their impact on crustal deformation is crucial for future seismic hazard estimates. Here, we use numerical modelling to explore how such climate-induced unloading of Earth's crust may affect the earthquake cycle of thrust faults in continental interiors. In different 2D experiments, we vary the magnitude and width of the load, the duration of unloading, the length of the interseismic phase, the viscosity of the lower crust and the shortening rate to capture low-strain and tectonically active settings. All experiments show that the fault responds to unloading with increased coseismic slip. When unloading phases are equal to or shorter than the interseismic phase, the largest amount of slip occurs toward the end of the unloading period. Even if the load is removed during a single interseismic phase, enhanced coseismic slip may also occur up to thousands of years after unloading. Generally, the increase in coseismic slip is most pronounced for large and narrow loads, long recurrence intervals, low shortening rates and low viscosities of the lower crust. Our findings imply that climate-induced unloading has the potential to increase earthquake magnitudes, to shorten earthquake recurrence intervals, and to increase the earthquake hazard especially in low-strain regions.
Compared to earlier studies, our results provide first insights into the impact that is to be expected from the ongoing deglaciation of glaciers and ice sheets worldwide on the coseismic slip of faults and hence, on approximate earthquake magnitudes. With respect to modern climate change, our results indicate that climate-induced mass changes on Earth's surface have the potential to increase the seismic hazard in various geological settings.

How to cite: Brauns, A.-C. and Hampel, A.:  Impact of climatically induced surface mass changes on the earthquake cycle of intra-plate thrust faults: Insights from numerical modelling , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3061, 2026.

The Tarim Basin is a multi-stage and multi-cycle superimposed basin developed on a stable craton basement. The Lunnan area is located in the central and eastern part of the Tabei uplift in the northern Tarim Basin. It has developed some fault systems with different strikes, properties, evolution stages. Based on the tectonic interpretation of 3D seismic data, we investigated the geometry ang kinematics of faults in Lunnan area.The formation and evolution of faults in Lunnan area occurred with the help of the pre-existing faults and were influenced by the regional compression/extensional direction transformation.

In the Neoproterozoic, the Tarim Basin was in an extensional tectonic background as a whole. The Lunnan area developed two rifts in the EW and NE directions, and the boundary normal faults were used as pre-existing structures. In the early Caledonian, the near NS direction Cambrian platform margin belt in the eastern part of Lunnan area is developed as the pre-existing weak belt.In the middle of the Caledonian, with a nearly NS-trending extrusion, the near EW-trending Lunnan fault grew and developed upward on the basis of the upper high-angle pre-existing fault surface of the early rift boundary normal fault, and the high-angle thrust fault was developed. Under the pure shear deformation mechanism, an X-type conjugate strike-slip fault system composed of two groups of NNE-and NNW-trending faults was developed.In the late Caledonian-early Hercynian, with a nearly NS-trending extrusion, the rapid uplift in the central and western parts of Lunnan area leads to a large amount of erosion of Ordovician strata to form a NEE-trending lithologic weak zone. Under the action of oblique compression, the pre-existing weak zone was activated by strike-slip and formed a series of NEE-trending strike-slip faults. At the boundary of the nearly NS-trending Cambrian platform margin zone in the eastern part of the Lunnan area, a nearly NS-trending fault was formed by the activation of the pre-existing weak zone under oblique compression.In the late Hercynian, under the NWW-trending extrusion, the near EW-trending Lunnan fault, NEE-trending and near NS-trending strike-slip faults continued to active.The NE-trending Lungu 7 fault inherits the high-angle fracture surface in the upper part of the NE-trending pre-existing rift normal fault, and develops a high-angle thrust fault. The pre-existing structure is not developed in the deep layer of the near EW-trending Sangtamu fault, and a thrust fault with a gentle dip angle conforming to the Anderson model is formed under the forward extrusion.With the change of regional compressive stress direction and the transformation from carbonate strata to clastic strata, the conjugate X-type strike-slip fault gradually disappeared.In the early Indosinian period, the Tarim Basin still showed a near NS-trending compressive stress background. In the middle and late stages, it was transformed into a NW-trending extensional background. The early stage of the fault still inherited the compressional nature, and the late stage superimposed extension-strike slip activity.In the Yanshanian-Early Himalayan period, the NW-trending extensional tectonic background induces the formation of tenso-shear echelon faults in the shallow layer.

How to cite: Cao, M., Li, W., and Zhuo, W.: The development regularity and genetic mechanism of intracratonic faults under the control of regional tectonic background and pre-existing structures--A case study of Lunnan area in northern Tarim Basin, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4159, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4159, 2026.

The Issyk-Ata fault is a key active structure in northern Kyrgyzstan and represents the principal seismogenic source affecting the densely populated Chui basin, including Bishkek, the capital city of the Kyrgyz Republic. In 2025, a sequence of moderate earthquakes with magnitudes exceeding Mw 4 occurred along the fault, providing clear evidence of ongoing deformation and renewed seismic activity. Owing to its proximity to major population centers, the Issyk-Ata fault has been consistently identified as the dominant contributor to regional seismic hazard. The northern Tien Shan is an actively deforming intracontinental region characterized by distributed crustal shortening associated with far-field convergence. Long-term geodetic measurements indicate north–south shortening rates of up to ~20 mm/yr, resulting in recurrent strong earthquakes along the northern Tien Shan margin. The Issyk-Ata fault extends approximately 120 km in an east–west direction and forms the northern boundary of a young and actively growing anticline separating the Kyrgyz Range foothills from the Chui basin. As the youngest major fault system in the region, it transects the southern part of Bishkek, where extensive urban development has largely obscured its surface geomorphic expression. To better constrain the seismic behavior of the Issyk-Ata fault, we integrate high-resolution remote sensing, detailed geomorphological and structural field investigations, and paleoseismological trenching, with a particular focus on the Dzhal area of the Kyrgyz Range. These combined datasets allow systematic mapping of surface ruptures, measurement of cumulative vertical displacements, and identification of fault segmentation. Chronological constraints derived from optically stimulated luminescence and radiocarbon dating reveal at least two surface-rupturing earthquakes during the Holocene. Empirical scaling relationships suggest that these paleoearthquakes reached moment magnitudes of approximately Mw 6.6–7.1. Geological and geomorphological analyses in the Dzhal area indicate a long-term fault slip rate of ~1.15 mm/yr, reflecting sustained Quaternary deformation. The fault exhibits pronounced along-strike variability in rupture style and displacement, with individual segments recording distinct seismic histories and patterns of activity.

These results demonstrate that the Issyk-Ata fault accommodates deformation through segmented rupture behavior typical of low-strain intraplate settings. The occurrence of large Holocene earthquakes, together with recent moderate seismicity in 2025 and the fault’s direct interaction with the urban area of Bishkek, underscores the need for refined, segment-based seismic hazard models. Improved understanding of seismogenic sources and Quaternary deformation along the Issyk-Ata fault is essential for advancing seismic hazard assessment and risk mitigation strategies in the northern Tien Shan.

How to cite: Ha, S. and Cholponbek, O.: Holocene Paleoearthquake Records of the Issyk-Ata Fault near the Densely Populated Chui Basin: Evidence from the Dzhal Area, Kyrgyz Range, Tien Shan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4708, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4708, 2026.

EGU26-4863 | ECS | Orals | TS6.1

Unraveling the Mechanisms of Giant Intraplate Strike-Slip Earthquakes in Mongolia: The Roles of Slow Plate Rates 

Eyüp Sopacı, Yann Klinger, and Luca Dal Zilio

The largest strike-slip earthquakes ever recorded (M > 8) occurred in Mongolia in the 20th century, far from any plate boundaries. Rupture length-magnitude data indicate that the magnitude of these intraplate Mongolian events is, on average, ~0.5 magnitude larger than that of typical interplate earthquakes. The physical mechanisms that allow for such extra-large events remain mostly unresolved, largely due to the long return time of such events, hence the limited observational data. To address this, we employed a dual approach—numerical simulations with the PyQuake3D boundary element code (Tang et al., 2025) and theoretical analyses using the Rate and State Friction (Aging) Law on the spring slider—focusing on the role of slow plate rates. Our findings show that lower plate rates result in higher slip and greater stress drop, driven by enhanced fault restrengthening (healing). This healing, quantified by the state parameter, increases linearly with the inverse plate rate, in agreement with both analytical spring-slider models and 3D simulations. Critically, however, the observed GNSS plate rates of 1–3 mm/yr are insufficient to account for the ~0.5-unit magnitude excess relative to typical interplate earthquakes. We rigorously examine two scientific hypotheses: First, plate rates may be at residual levels (<1 mm/yr), perhaps reflecting far-field tectonic stresses or gravitational potential energy contrasts in Central/East Asia. Such extremely low driving rates could enable extended interseismic healing and thus unusually large stress drops and magnitudes. Second, the rupture width and depth of these intraplate earthquakes exceed those of typical interplate events. Our argument for this second scenario is strengthened by simulations of thermal pressurization: at high slip rates, rapid heating of pore fluids increases pore pressure and reduces the effective normal stress, thereby facilitating enhanced fault weakening and deeper rupture penetration. Our integrated numerical and theoretical approaches provide a robust basis for these hypotheses, advancing our understanding of the generation of remarkably large intraplate earthquakes and highlighting the importance of tectonic plate rate controlling earthquake magnitude.

Tang, R., Gan, L., Li, F., & Dal Zilio, L. (2025). PyQuake3D: A Python tool for 3-D earthquake sequence simulations of seismic and aseismic slip. Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation, 2(4), e2025JH000871.

How to cite: Sopacı, E., Klinger, Y., and Dal Zilio, L.: Unraveling the Mechanisms of Giant Intraplate Strike-Slip Earthquakes in Mongolia: The Roles of Slow Plate Rates, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4863, 2026.

EGU26-5409 | ECS | Posters on site | TS6.1

The influence of fluvial incision on the lithospheric stress field: a numerical approach 

Felipe Baiadori da Silva and Victor Sacek

Fluvial denudation along large valleys moves important sedimentary volumes across continents over time, inducing isostasy-related stresses due to unloading of the crust. This work reports numerical experiments with a visco-plastic lithosphere aimed at understanding the patterns and evolution of stresses and uplift associated with differential erosion in wide, tectonically quiescent valleys over 30 million years (Myr). We simulate valleys 30 to 150 km wide and a few hundred meters deep, and observe horizontal deviatoric stresses with maximum magnitudes larger than 10 MPa, the distribution of which is largely controlled by the degree of mechanical coupling between upper crust and lithospheric mantle, associated with the viscosity of the lower crust. The upper crust in simulations with a weakly-coupled lithosphere is strongly compression-dominated beneath the valley. In contrast, scenarios with higher lithospheric coupling are characterized by similar amounts of compression and extension over crustal depths. Moreover, our simulations suggest that a significant part of these stresses persists for tens of Myr after erosion rates have diminished, gradually focusing around the central valley due to progressive viscous relaxation in the lower crust and lithospheric mantle. The adequacy of an elastic plate model in reproducing modeled surface uplift and subsurface stresses in response to fluvial incision is discussed in terms of lithospheric rigidity for each scenario, revealing important departures between stresses predicted from flexural theory and those resulting from our simulations. We conclude that large rivers are an important factor to consider when studying stress fields in stable continental regions, especially if the valley is being actively excavated, and that these might contribute to moderate seismic activity in intraplate settings.

How to cite: Baiadori da Silva, F. and Sacek, V.: The influence of fluvial incision on the lithospheric stress field: a numerical approach, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5409, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5409, 2026.

EGU26-5677 | Posters on site | TS6.1

New insights on large past earthquakes on the Raša Fault in NW Dinarides (Slovenia) revealed from multi-trench paleoseismic study 

Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Eva Mencin Gale, Lovro Rupar, Jernej Jež, Frank Preusser, Ana Novak, Aleša Uršič Arko, Andrej Anžel, Josipa Maslač Soldo, and Jure Atanackov

The Raša Fault is a major right-lateral strike-slip structure in the northwestern Dinarides, representing a key active fault in a low- to moderate-strain region. Despite its prominent geomorphic expression and recognized hazard, its seismic history remains poorly constrained. To address this gap, we conducted a multi-trench paleoseismological investigation, including radiocarbon and luminescence dating, to characterize past surface-rupturing earthquakes and assess recurrence intervals of large-magnitude events previously unknown in the region. Our results reveal repeated strong earthquakes during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, which based on worldwide empirical data likely exceeded magnitudes 6 or even 6.5. Although some age determinations are still in progress, preliminary results from four trenches indicate that at least five surface-rupturing events occurred in the last ~20,000 years, with several clustered in the past 6,000 years. Recurrence intervals vary widely, from a few hundred years to several millennia, reflecting both temporal clustering as well as locally incomplete stratigraphic records due to dynamic environment. These findings highlight the importance of multiple trench sites and extensive dating to resolve complex paleoseismic histories on faults in low- to moderate-strain regions. Our results also underscore the seismogenic potential of the Raša Fault and emphasize its relevance for regional seismic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Jamšek Rupnik, P., Mencin Gale, E., Rupar, L., Jež, J., Preusser, F., Novak, A., Uršič Arko, A., Anžel, A., Maslač Soldo, J., and Atanackov, J.: New insights on large past earthquakes on the Raša Fault in NW Dinarides (Slovenia) revealed from multi-trench paleoseismic study, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5677, 2026.

EGU26-5810 | Posters on site | TS6.1

Archeoseismological study of the AD 1621 “Panamá La Vieja” Earthquake: insight on the seismic source (Panamá, Central America)  

Pablo G. Silva Barroso, Javier Elez, Elvira Roquero, Juan Gómez Barreiro, and Puy Ayarza

As part of the revision of the seismic hazard investigations for the Panamá Canal Expansion Project in the Pacific new set of locks, we completed a detailed archeoseismological investigation on the existing ruins of the ancient Panamá La Vieja, which was affected by an earthquake of intensity ≥VIII in AD 1621 (6.9 Mw). Additionally, geomorphic, paleoseismic research together with the analysis of the historical and instrumental seismicity in central Panama allowed to develop different macroseismic scenarios (ShakeMaps) to check the suitability of the different proposed seismic sources in this zone of the isthmus where convergence rates are low (c. 0.7 – 0.8 mm/yr).

The archaeological site of Panamá La Vieja is the only place in which that event is truly documented by the historical report of the vicar Requejo Salcedo (earthquake witness), but also for the different earthquake archaeological effects (EAEs) preserved in the buildings of the present ruins. There were only eight stone buildings and about seventeen masonry buildings (convents, city jail, hospital, etc.) in the year 1621. The old cathedral was under construction then and the rest of the houses were wooden structures. At present, the convents of San Francisco, Sto. Domingo, La Compañia de Jesús, La Concepción and the old Hospital, display severe earthquake damage, the last three buildings practically collapsed. The measured EAEs are (a) penetrative and conjugate fractures in masonry walls; (b) tilted walls; (c) rotated and displaced masonry blocks; and (d) a large amount of dipping broken corners in stone blocks. The structural measures of the EAEs indicate a N10-20E regular orientation for ground movement, consistent with the offshore current seismic activity in the Pacific south of the city. There the NNW-SSE left-lateral Las Perlas Fault (LPF), responsible for two c. 5.0 Mw instrumental events (years 1971 and 2017), that struck the Panama City (c. 15 -20 km far away) with intensity VI MM. This scenario it is not consistent with other proposed seismic sources, such as the right-lateral Pedro Miguel Fault (PMF), cutting across the new set of locks of the Panamá Canal onshore. ShakeMaps (USGS methodology) elaborated to check the PMF and LPF seismic sources strongly suggests that the PMF 6.9 Mw earthquake solution do not explain the oriented damage recorded in the archaeological site. On the contrary, the offshore LPF solution only will need of a lower 6.0 – 6.5 Mw event to explain the destruction at the archaeological site with PGA values c. 0.4g (VIII MM). In addition, the LPF solution can account for the small tsunami flooding the littoral sector of the old city soon after the event described in the historical chronicle of Requejo Salcedo during the evening of 2 May1621. Recent research denies the Holocene and historical and activity of the PMF and our analyses strongly suggest that offshore faults (i.e. PLF) in the Gulf of Panama can be more suitable and realistic candidates than the PMF as the source of the 1621 earthquake.

Contribution supported by the Spanish Research Project I+D+i PID2021-123510OB-I00 (QTECIBERIA-USAL) funded by the MICINAEI/10.13039/501100011033/

 

 

How to cite: Silva Barroso, P. G., Elez, J., Roquero, E., Gómez Barreiro, J., and Ayarza, P.: Archeoseismological study of the AD 1621 “Panamá La Vieja” Earthquake: insight on the seismic source (Panamá, Central America) , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5810, 2026.

EGU26-6382 | ECS | Orals | TS6.1

Simulating seismic liquefaction: A laboratory approach to identifying new paleoseismic markers 

Szymon Świątek, Karolina Lewińska, Małgorzata Pisarska-Jamroży, and Christina Günter

Identifying reliable indicators of past seismic activity in sedimentary archives is crucial for advancing paleoseismology and understanding earthquake-driven sediment deformation. However, micro-scale mineralogical features have remained underexplored. In this study, we present the results of a 12-month-long experimental program simulating earthquake-induced liquefaction using fine-grained siliciclastic sediments and varying chemical conditions.

A total of 108 samples were incubated under reducing conditions in plexiglass cylinders with either Fe(II) sulfate or FeO(OH) additions. Seismic shaking simulations were conducted at intervals using a controlled vibration table calibrated to reproduce magnitude 3.5 equivalents. Micromorphological and mineralogical analyses (SEM, EDS, and Raman spectroscopy) revealed the consistent formation of core–rim structures (CRS) across all experimental variants, regardless of water chemistry or iron source. These features were absent in control samples not subjected to shaking, as well as in naturally deformed sediments of non-seismic origin (e.g., storm-induced structures).

These results suggest that seismic energy may facilitate fluid redistribution, mineral precipitation, and the formation of distinctive microscale deformation features. To ground experimental findings, we compared them to field samples where CRS and sideritic textures were also documented within known SSDS. In contrast, similar structures were absent in sediment samples with storm events and rapid loading genesis.

This integrated field–experimental approach offers a novel framework for identifying microseismic indicators in the sedimentary record. While more research across diverse environments is needed, CRS may represent a promising addition to the paleoseismological toolbox, particularly for low-magnitude or poorly preserved events.

How to cite: Świątek, S., Lewińska, K., Pisarska-Jamroży, M., and Günter, C.: Simulating seismic liquefaction: A laboratory approach to identifying new paleoseismic markers, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6382, 2026.

EGU26-7175 | Posters on site | TS6.1

Subtle structural testimony of Active faults: examples from Peninsular India 

Biju John and Yogendra Singh

Studies of damaging earthquakes that occurred in Peninsular India over 50 years suggest that they occur along favourably oriented pre-existing weaker planes/faults in the ongoing compressional tectonic regime. Many of these pre-existing structural weaknesses developed until the collision between India and Eurasia reversed the style of movement post-Miocene, from a general normal sense of movement to either reverse or strike-slip. However, identifying neotectonic signatures from the plate interior, especially in tropical climatic regions, is very challenging since erosional agents can nullify the signature of tectonic movement. The present article focused on identifying active faults from the zones of two major NW-SE trending structures, separated by about 1600 km, that are being widely deliberated for the reconstruction of the Gondwana assembly, viz., the Mahanadi Shear Zone and the Achankovil Shear Zone.

The NW-SE trending Neoproterozoic Mahanadi Shear Zone opened up as rift basins around 300 to 100 million years ago for the deposition of Gondwana sediments. Our studies at two locations, ~140 km apart along the strike direction, indicate that the litho-contact between crystalline and sedimentary can be easily made out through geomorphic expressions, drainage patterns, and nature of vegetation. The study identified badland topography and structurally controlled meandering of drainages in the area, which are associated with neotectonic adjustments. The brittle faulting, with a reverse sense of movement, identified in crystalline rocks shows wide damage zones with gouge injecting into fractures and also onto the surface, where the soil cover is negligible. The extrusion of gouge is preserved as a conical heap above the surface level. The study also identified the gouge injection into Quaternary sediments at several locations. The reverse faulting is also reflected in the laterite cap that developed over younger sediments deposited over the Gondwana formation.

The NW-SE trending Achankovil shear zone is a major Pan-African structure located close to the southern end of peninsular India, cutting through the Western Ghats. Earlier studies identified two major faults at the southern end of this shear system, viz., the Thenmala and Thenmala South faults, for which there exists a sharp geomorphic expression in the Western Ghats. However, its expression in the plain area east of the mountain terrain is very weak. The present study identified badland topography, abandoned river paths, and anomalous natural depressions associated with these faults as results of neotectonic adjustments in this area. Perturbation of land into the sea along the strike continuity of both faults in the southern side and the drainage divide between them are the other significant effects of neotectonism associated with these faults. Field investigations identified surface ruptures along the faults, preserved in hard laterite that was observed above crystalline rocks. Studies based on the trapped aeolian deposits within hard laterite suggest at least two faulting events within the last 4400 years.   

The present series of studies identified a host of geomorphic and structural evidences that can be used to identify active faults. These clues can be touchstones for future studies in the field of active fault evaluation in such terrains.

How to cite: John, B. and Singh, Y.: Subtle structural testimony of Active faults: examples from Peninsular India, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7175, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7175, 2026.

EGU26-7627 | Orals | TS6.1

Seasonal modulation of seismicity in an intraplate setting, the case of southeastern Australia 

Farzaneh Mohammadi, Romain Jolivet, and Eric Beaucé

While most earthquakes occur at plate boundaries, significant seismic events also occur within stable continental regions (SCRs), despite their low strain rates. These intraplate earthquakes, including rare but damaging events, raise fundamental questions about how elastic strain cumulates, is stored, and released in slowly deforming crust.

We develop a high-resolution seismicity catalog for southeastern Australia, a tectonically stable intraplate region, spanning 2005-2025. The catalog was constructed using the BPMF workflow which integrates backprojection-based detection, deep learning phase picking, nonlinear probabilistic relocation, and matched filtering. Relative to the Geoscience Australia catalog, our approach increases the number of detected events by approximately a factor of six and achieves a magnitude of completeness of Mc = 2.1, enabling robust statistical analyses over two decades. This enhanced resolution enables the exploration of seismicity statistics, clustering behavior, and temporal variability in a low-seismicity environment. 

Using this catalog, we identify a statistically significant seasonal modulation of seismicity, with earthquake rates peaking during winter–spring and reaching a minimum during summer–autumn. The seasonal signal persists after declustering and is observed across a range of magnitude thresholds above completeness, indicating modulation of background seismicity rather than dominance by individual earthquake sequences. 


Further analysis of GNSS displacement, GRACE-derived hydrological loading, and seismicity using multichannel singular spectrum decomposition identifies coherent temporal modes shared across all datasets. This correspondence suggests that hydrological loading drives elastic stress perturbations that are temporally linked to variations in earthquake occurrence. Together, these results imply that even modest seasonal and environmental stresses can modulate seismicity in stable continental regions, providing new insights into fault stability in intraplate settings.

How to cite: Mohammadi, F., Jolivet, R., and Beaucé, E.: Seasonal modulation of seismicity in an intraplate setting, the case of southeastern Australia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7627, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7627, 2026.

EGU26-10000 * | Orals | TS6.1 | Highlight

Earthquake cycle far from plate boundaries: Learning from Mongolia earthquakes  

Yann Klinger, Nicolas Pinzon Matapi, Laure Manceau, Yacine Benjelloun, Laurent Bollinger, and Jin-Hyuck Choi

Earthquake cycle is a well-accepted concept when dealing with active faults bounding tectonic plates or large lithospheric blocks. Usually, along those faults the slip-rate is large enough, in the range of few cm/yr to few mm/yr, to produce earthquakes often enough at the geological timescale, thus allowing to discuss earthquake cycle.

Away from active plate boundaries, fault systems are less structured, slip-rate can be only few tenths of mm/yr, and earthquake return-time gets longer. Thus, discussing earthquake cycle becomes more difficult. In fact, even the possibility that successive earthquakes occur along the same fault becomes arguable.

Mongolia, at the northern limit of the India-Eurasia collision zone, far from plate boundaries, presents a unique opportunity to examine the relevance of the concept of earthquake cycle in intra-plate context.

The 1967 M7.1 Mogod earthquake occurred in central Mongolia. No unambiguous evidence of past earthquakes could be identified for certain in the morphology, suggesting that this event occurred as an isolated event on some remanent older geological structure. However, paleoseismological investigation shows that at least a previous event occurred along the same fault about 25 kyr BP.

In the NorthWest of Mongolia, in 1905, two M8 earthquakes occurred 14 days apart along respectively the Tsetserleg and the Bulnai faults. The rupture traces associated with each of those two events are only few kilometers apart. Slip-rate along the Bulnai fault was estimated to be about 3 mm/yr. Here we have determined that the slip-rate along the Tsetserleg fault is one order of magnitude lower, about 0.3 mm/yr. Accordingly, paleoseismological trenches along the Tsetserleg fault have revealed that the average earthquake return-time along that fault is about 6 ky, two to three times longer than along Bulnai. Our recent investigation along the Bulnai fault, using lacustrine paleoseismology, shows that such doublet as in 1905 is not unique in the history of this fault system and that, in fact, the fault system shows a pattern resembling a super cycle, similar to what has been document along more active fault systems. When integrating the Bulnai-Tsetserleg fault system together with other documented faults in western Mongolia, it appears that such earthquake super cycle might in fact affect the entire regional fault system, and not only Bulnai-Tsetserleg. The reason why those two faults, which are almost touching each others, did not rupture during the same earthquake remains unclear to date. Our recent monitoring of the microseismicity in the area where those two large faults intersect shows that the current regime of microseismicity is very different between Bulnai and Tsetserleg. Using this microseismicity, we might be able to better constrain the geometry of the Tsetserleg fault at depth, as well as the general fault structure in the intersection area. It might be the key to understand the 2 weeks time-delay between those two events and, overall, how stress build-up in this complex fault system to produce earthquake super cycles.

How to cite: Klinger, Y., Pinzon Matapi, N., Manceau, L., Benjelloun, Y., Bollinger, L., and Choi, J.-H.: Earthquake cycle far from plate boundaries: Learning from Mongolia earthquakes , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10000, 2026.

EGU26-10012 | ECS | Posters on site | TS6.1

The Past, Present and Future of Multi-Trace Reverse Faults in New Zealand 

Alexandra Travers, Mark Stirling, Tim Stahl, Jonathan Griffin, Dan Clark, Giles Ostermeijer, Lucy O'Neill, and Andrew Gorman

Intracontinental reverse faults in Otago and South Canterbury, Aotearoa-New Zealand, have complex surface morphologies. The Dunstan Fault and Fox Peak Fault are expressed at the surface by multiple parallel to sub-parallel fault traces. These traces can be hundreds of meters apart from each other and span a deformation zone up to 2-3km in width. We ask the following questions: Do all traces rupture together in each ground rupturing earthquake, or do they rupture independently? If traces rupture independently, is it random which trace ruptures in a given event, or is there a spatio-temporal pattern? What is the likelihood of a new trace rupturing in the next large earthquake? We use paleoseismic techniques to constrain the timings of past earthquakes on each trace. The results are compared to see if the same earthquake ruptured multiple traces. If we can tease out any spatio-temporal patterns, we may be able to answer the question: In a future ground rupturing earthquake, which trace/traces will rupture? The results have implications for fault zonation and fault displacement hazard analysis of intracontinental reverse faults in Aotearoa-New Zealand and beyond.

How to cite: Travers, A., Stirling, M., Stahl, T., Griffin, J., Clark, D., Ostermeijer, G., O'Neill, L., and Gorman, A.: The Past, Present and Future of Multi-Trace Reverse Faults in New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10012, 2026.

EGU26-10571 | ECS | Posters on site | TS6.1

Quaternary neotectonic activity of the Sudetic Marginal Fault in Pieszyce area, Góry Sowie Massif (NE Bohemian Massif, SW Poland)  

Bartłomiej Grochmal, Artur Sobczyk, Piotr Słomski, Szymon Belzyt, Aleksander Kowalski, Janusz Badura, Mariusz Fiałkiewicz, and Marcin Dąbrowski

The Sudetic Marginal Fault (SMF) is a prominent tectonic structure, clearly expressed in the morphology of the NE part of the Bohemian Massif in SW Poland. The outcrop of the SMF core zone was recently exposed within the Góry Sowie Massif in the Pieszyce area (Poland) during earthworks carried out in 2022 and 2024. In this unique exposure, a distinct displacement of the contact between the underlying Sowie Góry gneisses and the overlying Quaternary sediments was recognized. The main fault zone steeply dips at 70°to the ENE. In the southern fault block, no sedimentary cover was observed, whereas Quaternary sediments attain a thickness of up to 4.5 m close to the main fault on the northern side.

Tectonically altered gneisses occur within the main fault zone, while the highly weathered crystalline basement beneath the sedimentary cover in the northern block is cut by numerous secondary tectonic zones filled with grayish fault gouge. Within these zones, we documented vertical veins of (up to 15 cm) filled with overlying deposits, including isolated gravel-sized clasts. Some of the observed veins penetrated bedrock to the depth of at least 1 m. Bedrock and fault-zone materials were systematically analyzed using XRF and XRD methods. Elevated concentrations of mercury and arsenic were observed in the fault zones. Micromorphological analysis of two oriented thin sections collected directly from the fault gouge, together with mineral phase identification based on XRD analyses of fault-gouge samples, reveals pervasive grain-size mixing and syn-deformational clay mineral realignment, indicating repeated brittle deformation under near-surface conditions.

Sedimentological studies, including facies and granulometric analyses, allowed to classify the sediments overlying the northern block as preglacial(?), fluvioglacial, and glacial origin. Petrographic analysis of clasts >10 mm revealed a dominance of locally derived material, with a minor contribution of Scandinavian clasts in the upper part of the profile. Clast imbrication measurements in preglacial sediments indicate transport in the WNW-ESE and NE-SW directions, interpreted as progradation of a locally sourced alluvial fan from the Sowie Góry Block. Measurements of cross-bedding and erosional channel axes within the fluvioglacial sediments indicate transport mainly towards the SSE, consistent with meltwater flow from the Scandinavian Ice Sheet margin and mixing with locally supplied Sudetic material derived from the crystalline basement. OSL dating of selected samples confirmed the Middle Quaternary deposition age of the fluvioglacial sediments in the Pieszyce area and provides direct evidence for Quaternary activity of the Sudetic Marginal Fault.

Keywords: Sudetic Marginal Fault, Sudetes, neotectonics, Quaternary sediments, OSL dating

How to cite: Grochmal, B., Sobczyk, A., Słomski, P., Belzyt, S., Kowalski, A., Badura, J., Fiałkiewicz, M., and Dąbrowski, M.: Quaternary neotectonic activity of the Sudetic Marginal Fault in Pieszyce area, Góry Sowie Massif (NE Bohemian Massif, SW Poland) , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10571, 2026.

EGU26-12300 | ECS | Orals | TS6.1

 Active Faults and Surface Ruptures in the Low-Strain Ubaye–Mercantour Region (Western Alps)  

Camille Thomasset, Riccardo Vassallo, Hervé Jomard, Christophe Larroque, Christian Sue, Joseph Martinod, Laurent Metral, and Anne-Clotilde Legal

The Western Alps have been the focus of detailed seismological investigations based on instrumental records, revealing diffuse seismicity predominantly expressed as earthquake swarms (M < 3.5), mainly concentrated along major inherited shear zones. Geological evidence indicates that these structures are compatible with a main cumulated strike-slip motion, whereas GPS data and instrumental seismicity suggest predominantly vertical deformation. Historical archives further document several moderate earthquakes (M > 5), particularly in the Ubaye–Mercantour region. The Durance–Sérenne–Bersezio fault system is identified as the main active structure in this area and is therefore the focus of a multidisciplinary study aimed at detecting and characterizing co-seismic surface ruptures.

At the Lombarde Pass (Mercantour), a 2 km-long fault scarp displays geomorphological markers indicative of right-lateral strike-slip motion along the Bersezio fault. Several ERT profiles across the fault highlight a very localized low-resistivity zone in the bedrock beneath the morphological scarp. Paleoseismological trenches excavated across the fault scarp reveal a clear, single co-seismic rupture, with a maximum vertical apparent offset of ~1 m at the bedrock–Quaternary deposits interface. Radiocarbon dating (¹⁴C) of bulk sediment samples from three trenches constrains this event to 7–6 ka cal BP, consistent with post–Younger Dryas deglaciation.

These results suggest the occurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes (M > 6) in a region currently dominated by swarm seismicity and provide new constraints on fault kinematics and deformation localization at the boundary between the internal and external Alpine domains.

This study sheds new light on discussions held during the PATA Days 2022 field trip, where this unusual tectonic structure in the Western Alps raised passionate questions about its Holocene activity and seismic potential.

How to cite: Thomasset, C., Vassallo, R., Jomard, H., Larroque, C., Sue, C., Martinod, J., Metral, L., and Legal, A.-C.:  Active Faults and Surface Ruptures in the Low-Strain Ubaye–Mercantour Region (Western Alps) , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12300, 2026.

EGU26-13834 | Posters on site | TS6.1

Modeling Present-Day Strain Accumulation and Fault Activity in The Northeastern Arabian Plate, Oman: A GPS Geodetic Analysis 

Zaid AL-Habsi, Anke M. Friedrich, and Amir Abolghasem

ABSTRACT

Oman occupies a uniquely complex tectonic setting at the northeastern edge of the Arabian Plate, where all major plate boundary types converge. However, present-day intraplate deformation in the region remains poorly quantified. To address this, we processed GPS data from 57 continuous stations, mostly spanning from 2014 to 2023, to construct a high-resolution crustal strain map. We derived interseismic velocities within a stable Oman reference frame and used an elastic dislocation model to estimate fault coupling and slip rates on major structures. Velocity gradients were then interpolated to calculate continuous 2D strain rates. Our results reveal the highest tectonic activity along the northern Hawasina Thrust and the Masirah ophiolite front (Batain complex), where the crust undergoes WNW–ESE to NW–SE directed extension at rates up to 50 nanostrain/yr. In contrast, the central and southwestern parts of Oman experience crustal shortening (~20 nanostrain/yr) in NNW–SSE and NE–SW orientations. Significant shear strain (up to 20 nanostrain/yr) localizes along the northern segment of the Hawasina thrust sheet, which our modeling indicates is a normal fault with a ~11 km locking depth and a slip rate of ~4.5 mm/yr. This geodetically derived strain pattern correlates spatially with major structural traces, confirming that these faults currently accommodate regional tectonic loading. This study provides the first geodetic evidence for present-day strain localization on major faults within the northeastern Arabian Plate. The results establish a measurable basis for reassessing seismic hazard in a region often considered tectonically quiescent and demonstrate the value of dense GPS networks for modeling strain in slowly deforming continental interiors.

How to cite: AL-Habsi, Z., Friedrich, A. M., and Abolghasem, A.: Modeling Present-Day Strain Accumulation and Fault Activity in The Northeastern Arabian Plate, Oman: A GPS Geodetic Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13834, 2026.

EGU26-14836 | Posters on site | TS6.1

Subtle evidence of Quaternary fault reactivation in Southwest Iberia, Portugal  

Paula Marques Figueiredo, Ricardo Ressurreição, Susana Custódio, Marta Neres, and Sumiko Tsukamoto

Southwest Portugal is the most seismically active region in Portugal mainland. Historical and instrumental seismicity, transpressive deformation accommodated by brittle structures (from which NNE-trending reverse left-lateral faults are the prominent ones), and uplifted marine landforms attest for the ongoing Quaternary crustal deformation. Geophysics highlights a positive gravimetric anomaly, consistent with the uplifted area. Simultaneously, geodesy suggests this region to be limited northward by a likely continuous right-lateral NW-trending structure, inferred to be 90 km long. However, this inferred structure is poorly understood, and southward partially overlaps a known active fault (São Marcos Quarteira) for ~50 km. The northward remaining length of 40 km lacks recognition of Quaternary deformation, despite a noticeable 50-100 m height scarp in the landscape along a ~10 km segment. This geomorphic feature has not been interpreted as an active fault, but as an inherent Variscan structure, possibly reactivated during the Miocene and since, evolved as a scarp retreated due to differential erosion promoted by the presence of Paleozoic quartzites, which are more resistant to erosion.

We present a preliminary analysis based on recently available 50 cm high-resolution lidar and revisited Plio-Quaternary data, together indicating evidence of likely subtle geomorphic deformation, which is expressed by small linear features NW-trending, some associated with changes of topography across a ~2km wide area. We propose these features to possibly correspond to subtle evidence of a cryptic fault system, likely to correspond to an inherited fabric, that has been reactivated. The newly discovered features will be investigated through combining geology, geophysics, and geochronology methods. Fault reactivation will be investigated through a detailed analysis of the damage zone and fault gouge, applying trapped-charges dating methods, namely OSL (Optically Stimulated Luminescence) and ESR (Electron Spin Resonance).

This work is supported by FCT, I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC): LA/P/0068/2020-https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020, UID/50019/2025, https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/PRR/50019/2025 ,UID/PRR2/50019/2025 and by Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, European Union (project SEISMO-REACT, GA101211167).

Keywords: Quaternary activity, seismogenic sources, low strain deformation, cryptic structures, SW Iberia

How to cite: Marques Figueiredo, P., Ressurreição, R., Custódio, S., Neres, M., and Tsukamoto, S.: Subtle evidence of Quaternary fault reactivation in Southwest Iberia, Portugal , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14836, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14836, 2026.

EGU26-16483 | Orals | TS6.1

Does Singapore have active faults? Geomorphic and sedimentological investigations in an urbanized tropical city–state   

Aron J. Meltzner, Liam L. Newman, Wanxin Huang, Matthew Xiang Hua Foo, and Mason K. Perry

Singapore, a highly urbanized city–state of 6 million on a ~730 km2 island, is commonly believed to be “safe” from local earthquakes, with only distant Sumatran earthquakes thought to affect it. This view likely arises from the scarcity of recorded local events since Singapore’s founding in 1824, yet it overlooks two M ≥ 5 earthquakes within ~120 km to the north and northwest in 1922, and a 1948 event — reported only from the island’s southern–central area — that produced EMS intensity IV–V at multiple closely spaced sites, suggesting M ≈ 4 with a local source. Recent mapping has revealed numerous bedrock faults in Singapore, but their capability remains unstudied.

The Downtown Core of Singapore, in the southern–central part of the island, is built atop the low-lying Kallang Basin and adjacent reclaimed land. Sediments, likely MIS 5e (120 ka) and younger, fill the basin to 40 m depth in the west but thin eastward; immediately to the west, Cretaceous to Pliocene bedrock rises up to 50 m above sea level. The steep, unconformable contact between bedrock and overlying layers has been interpreted as either a sea cliff or an inactive fault. We hypothesize instead that it may be an active fault — part of a transtensional stepover in a longer dextral fault system.

Using five decades of legacy borehole data, we are mapping the subsurface architecture of Kallang Basin and drainages to the west. The thalwegs of at least two east-flowing buried paleochannels abruptly drop more than 10 m eastward near the topographic step, and they both appear to shift several hundred meters southward, though resolution is limited by available borehole data. Could this be explained by channel meanders and knickpoint migration, or does it implicate right-lateral transtensional displacement after the two paleochannels were incised? We are extending the investigation to nearby paleochannels to address this question.

How to cite: Meltzner, A. J., Newman, L. L., Huang, W., Foo, M. X. H., and Perry, M. K.: Does Singapore have active faults? Geomorphic and sedimentological investigations in an urbanized tropical city–state  , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16483, 2026.

EGU26-17331 | ECS | Posters on site | TS6.1

The puzzling Hälsingland intraplate earthquake cluster in central Sweden 

Gunnar Eggertsson, Björn Lund, Ólafur Guðmundsson, and Michael Roth

The Hälsingland earthquake cluster, on the east coast of central Sweden, represents a puzzling case of intraplate seismicity in a tectonically stable continental region. The cluster measures approximately 100 km in length and extends in a near-linear trend from inland in the southwest into the Baltic Sea in the northeast, oriented approximately 35 degrees to the coastline. Unlike many of the earthquake clusters that occur in Sweden, the cause of the Hälsingland seismicity is not well understood, as it has not been possible to associate the cluster with any distinct geological feature, such as old deformation zones or a younger glacially triggered fault. Between September 2021 and September 2025, a temporary network consisting of thirteen broadband seismic stations was deployed in the Hälsingland region in an effort to establish better understanding of the drivers behind the Hälsingland seismicity. During this period, 873 earthquakes were detected and manually analyzed in the region, with local magnitudes ranging from -1.0 to 2.3. Using travel-time data from local quarry blasting, we derived a new, regional seismic velocity model and relocated all the earthquakes in the new model. The earthquake depths range from near-surface down to 39 km, with approximately 80% occurring at depths between 5 and 20 km. As part of this project, a previously unknown glacially triggered fault (GTF) system, the Mörtsjö fault system, was identified in the Hälsingland region, approximately 25 km north of the Bollnäs fault, the southernmost confirmed GTF in Sweden. Both the Mörtsjö and Bollnäs GTFs are small and located outside the most seismically active part of the Hälsingland region. However, relative earthquake relocations reveal multiple events which may be generated by movement on the faults. Waveform cross-correlation analysis shows moderate correlation between most earthquake pairs in the Hälsingland cluster but also identifies multiple families of closely spaced, highly correlating earthquakes, including a single family consisting of more than 30 events. The spread of the earthquake focal mechanisms does not clearly indicate a dominant fault orientation. While strike-slip motion dominates, multiple examples of both reverse and normal motion also occur, often in close proximity to each other. Inverting the focal mechanisms for the earthquake-generating stress field indicates a strike-slip stress state with a NW-SE direction of maximum horizontal stress. The inversion also suggests mostly E-W striking fault planes, suggesting that the faults rupturing in the Hälsingland earthquakes are not oriented in agreement with the general lineament of the cluster. We find that most of the Hälsingland seismicity does not occur on a well defined fault but rather in an active zone which extends to large depth but is only vaguely associated with changes in large scale geological features such as magnetic properties and Moho thickness.

How to cite: Eggertsson, G., Lund, B., Guðmundsson, Ó., and Roth, M.: The puzzling Hälsingland intraplate earthquake cluster in central Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17331, 2026.

EGU26-20166 | ECS | Posters on site | TS6.1

Exploring patterns and mechanisms of seismicity in the absence of tectonic loading 

Gaspard Farge, Farzaneh Mohammadi, Éric Beaucé, and Romain Jolivet

Within stable continental interiors such as the Australian, South African or North American cratons, seismicity occurs in the absence of measurable tectonic loading. This seismic activity has surprising characteristics. Relative to plate-boundary seismicity, it is more sensitive to seasonal load variations and it seems to develop aftershock sequences sustained for a much longer duration. Both observations are unexpected evidence that the crust in regions with no active tectonics has still found a way to reach a critical stress state, allowing it to be modulated by small variations of stress and to sustain long, efficient cascades of seismicity. Different mechanisms may be considered to explain how the crust reaches failure in the (supposed) absence of loading, that is either by reducing strength or by increasing stress by other means than tectonics. Among others, we propose (i) a progressive weakening of the crust through a brittle-creep-like mechanism, slowly driving cracks to near-critical conditions, (ii) the slow development of a deviatoric load due to erosive exhumation. Understanding which mechanism may dominate the activity, the activity timescales associated and which observables can be used to constrain them is key to make an assessment of the seismic risk in stable continental interiors.


In this work, we explore patterns of activity in high-resolution catalogs of seismicity in Eastern Australia,  the Northeastern USA and Northwestern France, as well as in acoustic emissions catalogs from brittle-creep of natural rocks in laboratory experiments. Using aftershock and triggering patterns in time and space, we attempt to constrain elements of the stress-to-failure distribution in the crust and how it evolves in time. These observations are then compared to the order-of-magnitude predictions from both (i) brittle-creep and (ii) erosive theories on how the crust fails in the absence of tectonic loading.

How to cite: Farge, G., Mohammadi, F., Beaucé, É., and Jolivet, R.: Exploring patterns and mechanisms of seismicity in the absence of tectonic loading, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20166, 2026.

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