18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks  

Mediterranean coastal regions are regularly affected by sudden heavy precipitation events leading to very dangerous flash floods. The structures responsible for extreme precipitation episodes are typically intense and small-sized quasi-stationary V-shaped mesoscale convective systems, repeatedly affecting the same area for several hours. Severe rainfall prediction, being the result of many mutually interacting multiscale processes, not yet completely understood and modeled, is still a major challenge for numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Furthermore, the intrinsic uncertainty related to deep moist convection and the large sensitivity of precipitation to uncertainties in the initial and boundary condition decrease the skill of numerical models, even at high horizontal resolution and short forecast times. In recent times, artificial intelligence (AI) emerged as a powerful tool for handling vast amounts of data and extracting patterns and relationships that might be challenging to identify through traditional fully-deterministic algorithms.

In the framework of the AIxtreme (Physics-based AI for predicting extreme weather and space weather events) project, a suite of AI-based techniques is being developed to calibrate numerical models based on the physics of the atmosphere, with the aim of anticipating the occurrence of extreme weather events and supporting decisions of civil protection agencies.

Thanks to the combined exploitation of deterministic weather prediction models and efficient data-driven AI-based algorithms, operational weather forecasts with improved accuracy in relation to key meteorological observables such as wind, temperature and precipitation, are expected to become available. A first significant result of the project is the development of a deep learning framework, named FlashNet, able to forecast able to forecast lightning flashes up to 48 h ahead in terms of probability of occurrence. FlashNet is capable to find an optimal mapping of meteorological features predicted two days ahead by the state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) into lightning flash occurrence. The prediction skill of the resulting AI-enhanced algorithm turns out to be significantly higher than that of the fully deterministic algorithm employed in the ECMWF model. A remarkable Recall peak of about 95% within the 0-24 h forecast interval is obtained. This performance surpasses the 85% achieved by the ECMWF model at the same Precision of the AI algorithm.

How to cite: Cassola, F., Carnevale, D., Sacchetti, D., Tizzi, M., Cavaiola, M., and Mazzino, A.: Combined exploitation of deterministic and AI-based tools for severe weather prediction, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-45, 2024.

Lightning can influence many human activities, being a threat also for human lives. The Mediterranean area is prone to thunderstorms and lightning. In this context, lightning forecast plays a fundamental role. We studied the impact of lightning data assimilation (LDA) on lightning and precipitation forecast over Italy and over part of the Central Mediterranean Basin. First, we highlight some characteristics of strokes over Italy and the Central Mediterranean [1], considering data over 13 years recorded by LINET (LIghtning NETwork). The analyses of the records show that lightning activity occurs mainly in summer and fall; moreover, a substantial change of convection characteristics between the two season is apparent. In summer, convection occurs over the land, in fall it is mainly over the sea.

Then, we consider a two-seasons data assimilation experiment [2] running the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Dynamic Lightning Scheme (DLS) at 3km horizontal resolution for summer 2020 and fall 2021. Each simulation produced the forecast for the following 6h. Therefore, the representation of a whole day needs four different simulations. Verification is done over two sub-periods, 0-3h and 3-6h after assimilation. Results for the 0-3h phase show a positive impact of LDA on strokes forecast, both improving correct forecasts and reducing false alarms. Depending on the case, LDA can trigger convection missed by control forecast and can correct strokes’ patterns, leading to predictions more in agreement with observations. An improvement compared to the previous day forecast, without LDA, is also obtained. Therefore, the forecast over the 0-3h phase with LDA is applicable to issue warnings and alerts as the storm is approaching. LDA forces convection where lightning is observed. Consequently, lightning forecast improvement given by LDA, is more evident over the land in summer and over the sea in fall. The 3-6h phase show a negligible impact of LDA on strokes forecast.

References

[1] Marco Petracca, Stefano Federico, Nicoletta Roberto, Silvia Puca, Leo Pio D'Adderio, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Stefano Dietrich. A 13-year long strokes statistical analysis over the Central Mediterranean area, Atmospheric Research, Volume 304, 2024, 107368, ISSN 0169-8095, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107368.

[2] Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Jana Popova, Zbyněk Sokol, Lukáš Pop, Martina Lagasio, Barry H. Lynn, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, Improving the lightning forecast with the WRF model and lightning data assimilation: Results of a two-seasons numerical experiment over Italy, Atmospheric Research, Volume 304, 2024, 107382, ISSN 0169-8095, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107382.

How to cite: Federico, S., Torcasio, R. C., Petracca, M., Roberto, N., Puca, S., and Dietrich, S.: Lightning over Italy: analyses of data and impact of their assimilation on lightning and precipitation forecast, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-54, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-54, 2024.

The interaction between aerosol particles and thunderstorm evolution and properties is complex and was studied by direct observational campaigns, remote sensing from space and through numerical simulations. Aerosols invigorate convection and can lead to enhanced charging manifested in more lightning, but they can also lead to a "Boomerang Effect" where too large concentrations of particles lead to diminished vertical development and weaker electrical activity (Altaratz et al., 2010). The effects of ship exhaust on ocean cloudiness have been studied intensively in recent years, following the discovery of prolonged ship tracks in oceanic regions where maritime transportation is most heavy, leading to large-scale changes in albedo and reduced precipitation. Recently it was shown that aerosols emitted by ships also tend to increase lightning activity, by modifying the dynamics and microphysics of clouds formed close to the busiest shipping lanes (Thornton et al., 2017) and enhancing the strike probability due to the tall metal ship structure (Peterson, 2023).

We study the effects of ship-emitted aerosols on thunderstorms in one of the busiest shipping routes in the world: the Mediterranean Sea between the Suez Canal and the Gibraltar Straights (see: https://www.marinetraffic.com/). This region hosts hundreds of ships daily, and space observations show considerable enhancement of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Sox and NOx concentrations there, some from land sources and others directly related to ship emissions. The present study utilized lightning detection networks' data (ENTLN) and researched the properties of lightning (peak current, multiplicity, polarity) with respect to aerosol concentrations and meteorological conditions. The shipping exhaust data was derived from the CAMS global emission inventories.

Initial results from the Eastern Mediterranean shows a marked increase in winter (DJF) lightning activity over the main east-west shipping lanes from Suez towards Crete, where a conspicuously larger amount of cloud-to-ground lightning is observed, with a higher fraction of superbolts (I > 200 kA). We suggest that the synergistic action of desert dust and air-pollution aerosols acts to invigorate or diminish convection, depending on their relative concentrations and the ambient meteorological conditions. This changes the effectiveness of charge separation processes and affects the electrical activity of winter thunderstorms in these specific areas of the Mediterranean Sea.

Altaratz, O., I. Koren, Y. Yair, and C. Price (2010), Lightning response to smoke from Amazonian fires, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L07801, doi:10.1029/2010GL042679

Peterson, M. (2023). Interactions between lightning and ship traffic. Earth and Space Science, 10(11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA002926

Thornton, J. A., Virts, K. S., Holzworth, R. H., & Mitchell, T. P. (2017). Lightning enhancement over major oceanic shipping lanes. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(17), 9102–9111. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074982

How to cite: Yair, Y., Korzets, M., Namia-Cohen, Y., Price, C., and Surian, N.: Lightning superbolts follow ship-tracks in Eastern Mediterranean winter thunderstorms, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-5, 2024.

Between Sept. 4, 2023, and Sept. 12, 2023, a cyclogenesis develops close to the Greek coast in the Ionian Sea. The evolution of this cyclone is divided into two phases: a strongly baroclinic one with intense orographic precipitation in Greece, and a final barotropic phase with the formation of an intense tropical-like cyclone (TLC) impacting Libya, causing more than 10,000 deaths due to the intense precipitation causing the sudden break of a dam. In this work, we investigate this TLC (named “Daniel”) initially using the standalone WRF model with different sea surface temperature sensitivity tests until we arrive at the use of the coupled atmosphere-ocean and atmosphere-ocean-wave models. The purpose of this work is to investigate the role of each environmental component in the development of the barotropic phase and the record-breaking precipitation. We also aim to study the energy fluxes and mixing factors between the atmosphere and the ocean. Preliminary results show that SST plays a crucial role in the intensification of the cyclone and precipitation, not only along the cyclone track but especially in the neighboring areas, where high values of heat transport are found.

How to cite: Ricchi, A., Ferretti, R., Pantillon, F., Dafis, S., and Saúl Carrió Carrió, D.: On the role of air-sea-wave interaction in developing destructive Tropical-Like Cyclones DANIEL, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-63, 2024.

In the early morning of 1 August 2021, a supercell developed over the Veneto plain and moved eastward towards Friuli-Venezia Giulia, locally producing hailstones with diameters up to 9 cm.

In the present work, this event is studied by means of simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 1 km resolution, coupled with the HAILCAST hail growth parameterization, which provides estimates of the maximum hail size at the ground. Several simulations are performed using different initial and boundary conditions (GFS and IFS forecasts), different initialization times and physics options, to study the predictability of the event.

The analysis of the model results highlights a significant sensitivity to the forcing meteorological model and the initialization time. In particular, WRF is not able to properly simulate the development of strong convection over the Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia plain in the early morning of 1 August using GFS forcing, while better results are obtained with IFS initial and boundary conditions, especially when simulations are initialized more than 24 hours before the event. Moreover, results are significantly affected by the microphysics scheme and the land surface model, while the planetary boundary layer parameterization seems to have a minor influence. However, the development of the supercell is properly simulated, with hailstone diameters comparable to observations, only when data from radiosoundings of Udine Rivolto are nudged into the model, highlighting the importance, and at the same time the complexity, of correctly reproducing local thermodynamic conditions for the simulation of extreme convection events.

How to cite: Perbellini, A., Sioni, F., Manzato, A., and Giovannini, L.: Numerical simulations of a supercell in northeastern Italy with WRF-HAILCAST, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-72, 2024.

Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, also known as medicanes, are small cyclones observed in the Mediterranean region with an average frequency of 1-2 cases per year, mainly in autumn and winter. The tropical-like phase of these cyclones is characterized by the presence of a symmetric thermal structure and a deep warm core, which are features typical of tropical cyclones. Their mechanisms of formation and tropical transition have been investigated by many authors, but an official rigorous definition of medicane is still lacking, due to the significant case-by-case differences.

In this work, 17 Mediterranean cyclones, including three potential medicanes in 2023, have been first analyzed using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset to evaluate their similarities and dissimilarities, considering different features in the lower and upper troposphere. Results show that the development of a warm core is negatively correlated with potential vorticity (PV) in the upper troposphere, while PV increases in the low troposphere due to latent heat release. It has also been verified that during the tropical-like phase the wind shear presents lower values, the jet stream is weaker and farther from the cyclone center, and the cyclone is vertically aligned, even if some exceptions exist. Then, the presence of a dry intrusion has been investigated using back-trajectories, showing that all cyclones present descending dry air associated with a PV streamer, meaning that the upper-level dynamics are fundamental in the early stages. However, the threshold of 400 hPa of descent in 48 hours used in literature to define the dry intrusion is not appropriate for cyclogenesis in the Mediterranean, and, in some cases, a weaker PV streamer associated with a less pronounced descent is sufficient for cyclogenesis. In this regard, Ianos, one of the strongest medicanes ever recorded, presents two weak descending flows associated with PV streamers, one in the early stage and one before the strong deep warm core phase. This cyclone has also been analyzed through a simulation with the WRF model with a grid spacing of 3 km, with the main aim of evaluating the different terms of the pressure tendency equation (PTE), to quantify the role of upper-level dynamics and diabatic heating on the surface pressure tendency. The same procedure has been applied to analyze the recent cyclone Daniel that affected Libya in September 2023, and a comparison with Ianos has been performed.

How to cite: Nigro, D., Bordoni, S., Giovannini, L., and Miglietta, M. M.: The peculiarities of Ianos among Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-115, 2024.

The North-western Mediterranean coast, including the Catalan littoral zone, faces a high probability of extreme weather events. Climate change exacerbates these challenges by increasing the frequency and intensity of phenomena like droughts, heatwaves, and flooding. The Metropolitan Area of Barcelona, with its dense urban environment and complex topography, struggles with significant hydrological challenges, especially during intense, localized downpours. Efficient drainage is difficult due to the region's coastal location and urban landscape.

To enhance urban resilience, this study emphasizes the importance of using non-structural and structural techniques that mimic natural hydrologic responses, thereby reducing adverse runoff impacts. Understanding the dynamics of convective precipitation at high resolution is crucial for sustainable water management and flood resilience in Barcelona. Improved knowledge of storm structures and rainfall patterns can help predict and mitigate extreme weather effects in the metropolitan area.

This work introduces a radar-based nowcasting approach that utilizes a two-dimensional radar product with three-dimensional atmospheric information to improve early warnings for the urban region with high spatial resolution. Unlike previous methods that relied single levels of radar reflectivity such as CAPPI and TOP (Esbri et al., 2021), this new approach focuses on the most convective parts of storms by incorporating Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL) density-based nowcasting. The VIL density product, derived from radar composites, provides vertical storm structure information in a two-dimensional format, enabling faster data processing without losing volumetric capabilities.

The obtained storm centroid distributions using the two different methodologies are discussed. The new resulting warning areas are compared with incidents from Barcelona's rainfall drainage network, managed by Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua S.A., and the economic impacts collected by the Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros for municipalities in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona, thereby redefining rainfall hotspots in the region.

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 101037193.

References:

Esbrí L., Rigo T., Llasat M.C., Aznar B. Identifying Storm Hotspots and the Most Unsettled Areas in Barcelona by Analysing Significant Rainfall Episodes from 2013 to 2018. Water. 2021; 13(13):1730. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131730

How to cite: Esbri, L., Rigo, T., Aznar, B., and Llasat, M. C.: Radar based nowcasting to enhance urban resilience to flash floods in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-109, 2024.

SEE-MHEWS-A project aims to provide operational forecasters from 17 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the South-East Europe with effective and tested tools for forecasting hazardous weather events and their possible impacts in order to improve the accuracy of warnings and their relevance to stakeholders and users. On a single virtual platform, the system collects NWP information for the provision of accurate forecasts and warnings to support hazard-related decision-making by national authorities. In addition to the operational IFS model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), four limited area model (LAM) configurations for South-East Europe (SEE) are developed and run in a quasi-operational environment including: ALADIN-ALARO, COSMO, ICON, and WRF NMM-B. Our interest is a structured, region-wide forecast verification as a necessary component of the process to establish a multi-hazard early warning system.

We study strengths and weaknesses of different modelling systems in different weather situations to provide an initial estimate of model success in a real-time operational situation for precipitation, including extreme events, over a pilot area of wider eastern Adriatic coast spanning over five countries. First, our approach uses moment-based and categorical statistical verification, including a decomposition of scores into biases and dispersion (phase) errors. Best results averaged over all stations are not achieved for a single model but vary across several modelling configurations depending on the score analyzed. It is clearly noticeable that models are of lower accuracy near the mountainous coast compared to continental inland due to the generally more intense precipitation, influence of the complex terrain and influence of sea and surface inhomogeneities. Likewise, categorical verification suggests low-medium intensity precipitation forecast accuracy is the lowest where Dinaric Alps are most complex, but results do improve in higher precipitation categories. Although results are far from perfect for most extreme events, all models show skillful predictions and none of the models shows considerably more strengths than others with extremal dependence index (EDI) ranging from 0.45 up to 0.85 depending on the model.

To alleviate effects of small errors in time and space on verification measures, in absence of spatially homogenous precipitation data, we apply a neighborhood verification approach, which offers an alternative that rewards closeness by relaxing the requirement for exact matches between forecasts and observations in the spatial domain. The single-observation neighborhood approach (SO-NF) results show an improvement in ETS values with an increase of the spatial scale for the categories of events. At the highest precipitation category (above 30 mm/24h) and common spatial scale of ~45 km, ECMWF and COSMO models seem to perform somewhat more consistently than other models. Nevertheless, the improvement of the results with the forecast neighborhood size noticed for most models and countries shows the benefits of the SO-NF approach in terms of recognizing additional forecasted values present in the proximity of the exact location, even though they were slightly displaced.

How to cite: Horvath, K., Odak Plenković, I., and Keresturi, E.: Evaluation of precipitation forecasts of several NWP modelling systems within South-East European Multi-Hazard Early Warning Advisory System - SEE-MHEWS-A project, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-132, 2024.

An extremely intense and organized convective storm, classified as a “derecho”, developed over the western Mediterranean Sea on August 18, 2022. The system affected Corsica, northern Italy, and Austria, with wind gusts up to 62 m/s and giant hailstones (diameter of around 11 cm), being responsible for 12 fatalities and 106 injured people.

The derecho developed over an extreme and persisting marine heatwave over the western Mediterranean. Therefore, the hypothesis of a relationship between the atmospheric event and the marine heatwave rapidly arose, suggesting a possible link with anthropogenic climate change.

By performing model simulations with both the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) and the nonhydrostatic operational AROME model and using the pseudo-global warming approach, we find a relationship between the marine heatwave, the actual anthropogenic climate change conditions, and the development of this extremely rare and severe convective event. These results suggest the increase of probability of development of similar events with respect to the past associated to climate change, and illustrate how climate change effects can cascade through a chain of extreme weather and climate events.

How to cite: González-Alemán, J. J., Insua-Costa, D., Bazile, E., González-Herrero, S., Miglietta, M. M., Groenemeijer, P., and Donat, M. G.: Attribution of the destructive Mediterranean derecho in 2022 to anthropogenic warming, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-3, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-3, 2024.

In the Mediterranean region, there is no consensus in trends of observations of extreme rainfall events, nor agreement between models in multi-models’ projections. Yet, extreme rainfalls in the Mediterranean region poses significant risks to human life, infrastructure, and ecosystems. In this context, our work aims to better understand the physical processes leading to changes in extreme rainfall in the region. The region of study is the Western Part of the Mediterranean. 

We investigate the topic conducting a Pseudo-Global-Warming experiment. We simulated two 10 years periods with WRF at a convection-permitting resolution, which helps to  capture extreme rainfall events more realistically. One simulation is for the period 2011-2020, fed by ERA5 reanalysis (past-present), and another simulation for the same period, but with a climate change signal - extracted from 27 GCM (Global Climate Models) – added to the ERA5 data from 2011-2020. The GCM signal is calculated for a high-emission scenario (SSP585) and the period 2070-2099 with respect to 1985-2014.

We show how the characteristics of events producing extreme rainfalls could change in a warmer climate, focusing on their size, intensity, localization, and durations. Furthermore, we provide insights of the physical processes driving these changes by exploring the relationship between extreme rainfall and indicators of atmospheric conditions favoring their occurrence. For example, we show the connection between high Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and extreme rainfall, both in the present and in a warmer future.  We also examine how often extreme rainfall events coincide with convective storms or cyclones, and explore how the relationship between storm occurrence and extreme rainfall may change in a warmer future climate.

Our findings offer valuable understanding of the complex dynamics of extreme rainfall events in the Western Mediterranean region, providing crucial insights into the potential impacts of climate change on this vulnerable area.

How to cite: Bahuet-Bourret, Y. and Argüeso, D.: Understanding the influence of a warmer climate on the processes leading to Extreme Rainfalls in the Western Mediterranean. A Pseudo-Global-Warming experiment., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-37, 2024.

It is well-established that the Mediterranean region is a climate change hotspot, with extreme phenomena increasing all across the basin. Heatwaves have intensified both in frequency and duration, resulting in unprecedented high temperatures that exacerbate health risks and strain energy resources. The region has also experienced a rise in intense precipitation events, leading to flash floods that pose significant threats to human lives, infrastructure, and agricultural yields. Moreover, the Mediterranean is witnessing a notable increase in the frequency and severity of wildfires, propelled by prolonged droughts and exacerbated by shifting precipitation patterns. These climatic extremes not only endanger the safety and well-being of local communities but also pose tough challenges to regional economies, which are heavily reliant on sectors such as agriculture and tourism. A key step in addressing extreme events is the timely prediction of these phenomena by identifying the key drivers that lead to their occurrence.

In our analysis, we aim to pinpoint the fundamental drivers behind extremes in the Mediterranean. The MED-HOT index, designed to evaluate regional climate extremes through concurrent analysis of changes in precipitation and temperature frequency and intensity, provides a comprehensive assessment of Mediterranean climate challenges, highlighting areas requiring immediate attention and intervention. Using the MED-HOT index for the identification of the extreme hot spot regions, we uncover the potential drivers and the associated time lags of extreme precipitation, temperature, and drought.  We apply the Peter and Clark momentary conditional independence (PCMCI) causal discovery algorithm to identify the prominent atmospheric teleconnection patterns driving extreme weather events in the Mediterranean Basin. The study suggests that teleconnection patterns in the North Atlantic notably impact precipitation, especially in the western parts of the Mediterranean Basin. Additionally, it is observed that the impact of teleconnections on extreme temperatures is more pronounced during the summer season. The results of this study are crucial for understanding the underlying drivers of extremes weather events and enhancing our preparedness to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

How to cite: Papadopoulos-Zachos, A., Anagnostopoulou, C., Di Capua, G., Lazoglou, G., Tolika, K., Velykou, K., and Manios, E. M.: Analysis of Causal Links between Mediterranean Climate Extremes and Teleconnection Indices , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-22, 2024.

The Mediterranean Sea is experiencing accelerated warming, outpacing the global ocean average according to recent studies. This regional basin is particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change due to its unique topography and thermohaline circulation patterns. Observational data and model reanalysis have documented significant changes in the characteristics of Mediterranean water masses.

One of the best indicators of this alarming trend is the Ocean Heat Content (OHC). The challenge of this research manifests in the implementation of a cloud-based workflow to estimate the OHC, assessing its evolution in user-defined sub-regions or depth layers within the Mediterranean basin. This application developed within the EU Blue Cloud 26 project framework, has the ambition to access data machine-to-machine data from multiple blue data infrastructures (SeaDataNet, Copernicus Marine Service, EuroArgo, World Ocean Database) available to the scientific community.

The workflow will use the DIVAnd tool to map historical in situ temperature data on a regular grid and the results will be compared to ocean reanalysis products from INGV and the Copernicus Marine Service.

The analysis will focus on identifying OHC trends, with a specific emphasis on understanding the implications of these changes for the region's climate system.

We expect the results to highlight the spatial variability of warming trends within different sub-regions and depth layers, underscoring the complex interplay between hydrodynamics and climate change in shaping the Mediterranean's thermal structure.

Moreover, by leveraging this workflow, we ensure that ocean key variables are consistently updated and validated according to the most recent community practices. The effort conducted will allow us to have a key indicator, such as OHC, rapidly available and constantly updated according to the most recent data, thus supporting an informed and efficient decision.

Finally, this study will contribute to the broader understanding of regional climate dynamics and provide valuable insights into the diagnosis and projection of extreme weather events in the Mediterranean Sea within the context of a changing climate environment.

How to cite: Baglione, E., Finlayson, M., and Simoncelli, S.: Diagnosis and Projection of Mediterranean Sea Warming Trends within the Framework of a Generalized Workflow, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-64, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-64, 2024.

This study explores future projections of climate extreme indices in Central Europe and examines the impact of performance-based subsetting of Global Climate Models (GCMs). To achieve this, we evaluated CMIP6 GCMs based on their accuracy in replicating the observed mean, spatial correlation, and variability of selected climate extreme indices. We analyzed simulations from all available CMIP6 models under four socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), using two baseline periods (1961-1990 and 1981-2010) and two future periods (2021-2050 and 2070-2099). The study considered three air temperature indices: (i) the number of days with daily maximum temperature over 34 °C (Su34), (ii) the number of days with daily maximum temperature over 25 °C (Su25), and (iii) the number of tropical nights with daily minimum temperature over 20 °C (TN). Additionally, we analyzed four rainfall indices: (i) number of days with very heavy precipitation over 20 mm (R20mm), (ii) number of days with heavy precipitation over 10 mm (R10mm), (iii) consecutive dry days (CDD), and (iv) consecutive wet days (CWD) for precipitation thresholds of 1 mm and 2 mm. Our ranking method assigned scores to the models from 1 to 39 for each climate extreme index based on three evaluation metrics: Pearson’s correlation coefficient, the ratio of the mean, and the ratio of the standard deviation. The total rank for each GCM was determined by summing these scores across all indices and metrics.

The median of the multi-model ensemble (MME) indicates an important increase in the number of days with very heavy and heavy precipitation, especially towards the end of the century, while the number of consecutive wet days shows minimal change. Consecutive dry days are projected to increase significantly by the late 21st century. There is also a marked rise in the number of summer days and tropical nights, with more pronounced changes in the southern regions of the study area.

We selected the top ten models ensemble (BME) based on their performance ranking. For historical periods, the BME showed improved accuracy for the mean of all indices except Su34. For future projections, the BME indicates greater positive changes in very heavy precipitation and consecutive wet days compared to the MME. Conversely, the BME shows smaller changes for Su34 and Su25 indices, particularly for the far future period. The interquartile range (IQR) of R10mm and R20mm is higher for the BME than for the MME. The BME's IQR for CDD is also higher, except under SSP585, where it narrows in both future periods. The IQR for CWD remains similar between the BME and MME, with a higher IQR only under SSP126. For Su25 and Su34, the BME exhibits a higher IQR under all scenarios except SSP585 in the near future. Regarding tropical nights, the BME reduces the IQR across all scenarios while maintaining the MME medians.

How to cite: Dhib, S., Halenka, T., Holtanova, E., Verma, S., and Belda, M.: Ranking and projection of CMIP6 based on Climatic Extremes performance over Central Europe, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-107, 2024.

The potential increase of heat stress is a major challenge of the 21st century, and the Mediterranean region is especially exposed to this natural hazard due to the anthropogenic global warming. This study evaluates the multi-model and multi-scenario ensemble from global climate model simulations - available from the CMIP6, i.e. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 of the World Climate Research Programme - including four different SSP-RCP scenario pairs (i.e. from immediate rapid mitigation and effective adaptation, SSP1-RCP2.6, to no mitigation with highly challenging adaptation, SSP5-RCP8.5). For this purpose, the Interactive Atlas of the IPCC AR6 Working Group 1 is used, and the geographical differences of climate projections are compared within the Mediterranean region of Europe. The study provides key information so the regional and national adaptation strategies for different socio-economic sectors can be built and/or updated accordingly.

This study focuses on temperatures extremes, i.e. the monthly frequency of heat days with daily maximum temperature above 35 °C. The target periods cover two decades on medium-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2100), and the reference period is defined as the last two decades of the historical simulation period (1995-2014). Several zonal and meridional segments were defined over Europe, along which the projected changes are analysed with a special focus on sea cover, continental, and topography effects. Furthermore, the consequences of different scenarios are also compared. The results clearly show that greater radiative forcing change implies more severe health effects via the more frequent heat stress events. However, substantial differences can also be identified from south to north as well, as from west to east. The study highlights the differences within the Mediterranean region.

Acknowledgements: Research leading to this study has been supported by the European Climate Fund (G-2309-66801), the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Fund (under grants PD-138023 and K-129162), and the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014).

How to cite: Pongrácz, R., Divinszki, F., and Kis, A.: Analysis of projected changes of heat days frequency within the Mediterranean region using CMIP6 simulations, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-129, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-129, 2024.

Mediterranean cyclones are high-impact weather events that frequently result in devastating floods, storm surges, and windstorms, sometimes leading to casualties.  They may exhibit characteristics typical of tropical (or sub-tropical) cyclones (e.g., a warm core, a cloud free eye surrounded by spiraling rain bands around the center, and a closed vortex associated with strong near-surface winds and heavy precipitation). Less frequently, these cyclones undergo transition into a tropical-like cyclone (TLC) during their mature phase, exhibiting at some point during their evolution a deep axisymmetric warm core of diabatic origin (i.e., latent heat release due to air-sea interaction and moist convection). The latter cyclones are generally referred to as Medicanes (Mediterranean Hurricanes). However, the term Medicane is often associated with other types of warm core cyclones, including warm seclusions present in the late stage of extra-tropical cyclones, where the warm core originates from baroclinic processes. The present work presents some recent advancements in the use of satellite passive microwave (PMW) measurements to monitor and to characterize warm core, deep convection and the presence of a closed eye during the cyclone evolution in order to identify the possible transition into TLC. Moreover, all the available scatterometers onboard LEO satellites (MetOp ASCAT and FY-3E WindRAD) are used to monitor the evolution of the surface wind field as the cyclone evolves to the mature stage and its relation to the cyclone intensification. The analysis is carried out for 15 Mediterranean cyclones that occurred in the last 21 years (2003-2023) and reveals that only 9 of them underwent a TLC transition during their mature phase. In particular, the study focuses on three cyclones (i.e., Helios, Juliette, and Daniel) that occurred between February and September 2023. The results indicate that the three cyclones show a very similar evolution during the initial phases, characterized by a dry stratospheric air intrusion followed by the development of a warm anomaly in the low/mid-troposphere around the cyclone center. This phenomenon is clearly driven by baroclinic processes. However, while for Helios the PMW diagnostics do not show deep convection in the warm core region, for both Juliette and Daniel deep convection is identified in the warm core region at the final stage of their mature phase, providing a strong indication that diabatic heating plays a key role in the warm core development. From the analysis, it can be concluded that, while Helios is a warm seclusion, Juliette and Daniel undergo a TLC transition at the final stage of their evolution. This research is an important contribution towards the use of Earth Observation for Medicanes’ definition, within the activities of the ESA MEDICANES project and of the COST Action MedCyclones.

How to cite: Panegrossi, G., D'Adderio, L. P., Sanò, P., Casella, D., Sebastianelli, S., Rysman, J.-F., Dafis, S., Miglieta, M. M., Di Francesca, V., and Herndon, D.: Satellite-based characterization of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (Medicanes), 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-39, 2024.

Accurate weather forecasts are important to our daily lives. Wind, cloud and precipitation belong to the fundamental variables in NWP models. The WIVERN (Wind Velocity Radar Nephoscope) mission (Illingworth et al., 2018), for observing global winds, clouds and precipitation, has the opportunity to be the first space-based mission to provide in-cloud winds. It is currently in the phase A of the European Space Agency (ESA) Earth explorer 11 program and, if demonstrated successful, WIVERN data could be beneficial to enhance NWP performance, to improve our knowledge of weather phenomena, and to validate climate statistics.

In this work, we present an assimilation experiment of the WIVERN Doppler (HLoS; Horizontal winds along the Line of Sight) data for the outstanding case of the Medicane Ianos, occurred in mid September 2020.

To this end, we use the following approach: we run the Medicane Ianos with WRF at 4km horizontal resolution using the ECMWF-EPS (European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast – Ensemble Prediction System) analysis/forecast cycle issued at 12 UTC on 16 September 2020 as initial and boundary conditions. Fifty-one occurrences of the Medicane Ianos (members) are forecast, taking into account for the atmospheric predictability of that day. For all members the trajectory of the Medicane is determined by the minimum surface pressure.

The trajectories are then compared with the reference trajectory determined by the method of Flaounas et al. (2023) that makes use of ERA5 reanalysis and the best member among the 51 WRF simulations is determined. The best member is that minimizing the spatial error compared to the reference trajectory. WIVERN pseudo-observations are then generated for the best member using the Wivern simulator (Battaglia et al., 2022). Pseudo-observations are then assimilated into the WRF model every 3h using the 3DVar scheme of Federico (2013). Results show a positive impact of the data assimilation on the simulation of the Ianos trajectory. The distance between the simulations assimilating HLoS and the best trajectory are more than halved compared to the control forecasts.

Sensitivity tests to the observation error and to the WIVERN revisiting time show that the latter has a much larger impact on the quality of the forecast.

References

Battaglia, A., et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3011-2022.

Federico, S., 2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3563-2013.

Illingworth, A. J., et al., 2018, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0047.1, 1669-1687.

Flaounas, E., et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023

How to cite: Federico, S., Torcasio, R. C., Montopoli, M., Panegrossi, G., Cambiotti, C., and Battaglia, A.: Assimilation of WIVERN Doppler data in WRF model for the case study of Medicane Ianos, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-20, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-20, 2024.

Extreme precipitation events pose significant challenges, especially in semi-arid regions where climate change has increased the frequency of such episodes, exacerbating the lack of adequate infrastructure to mitigate their impacts. The integration of satellite data with modeling techniques emerges as a crucial strategy for characterizing and predicting these events effectively. The Spain’s floods in September 2019 serve as a poignant example, resultingin in 7 casualties and 19 million euro in damages. The more affected regions were the Valencian Community, the Region of Murcia, Castilla-La Mancha and Andalusia, with areas in the south of the Community of Madrid also experiencing significant impacts by the end of the episode.

An analysis comparing satellite data with outputs from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and simple hydrological models, alongside direct observations such as METEOSAT data, rain gauges and ground Doppler radars, reinforces the critical role of satellites in managing hydrometeorological events effectively. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory, operational since 2014, and merged satellite estimates have demonstrated remarkable improvements over previous technologies. Additionally, the timely availability of satellite estimates enables near-real-time monitoring of severe hydrometeorological episodes.

While future automation of models remains a goal, current reliance on satellite products such as Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERG) can significantly aid in addressing societal needs. The ultimate objective is to transition from observation-based responses to predictive capabilities, with satellite data playing a central role in this transformation.

How to cite: Leganes, L., Navarro, A., and Tapiador, F.: An example of the combined use of satellite data and models for the analysis of extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean: The September 2019 floods in Spain, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-23, 2024.

The Mediterranean region, recognized as a climate change hotspot, faces increasing and intensity of extreme weather events, posing significant challenges to vulnerable communities. In response we propose a novel artificial intelligence (AI) model designed to predict two distinct extreme weather phenomena in the Mediterranean basin: major Medicanes (across the entire basin) and severe coastal winds (tested in the Valencian Community). Our model employs a hybrid AI framework, adapted from former work on tropical cyclone forecasting rooted in a binary classification method, to enhance forecasting capabilities for these heavily non-linear extreme weather events, especially under rapidly evolving conditions. Our methodology involves analyzing datasets associated with each weather phenomenon, categorizing them into extreme and non-extreme based on the maximum wind speeds. By leveraging infrared satellite imagery and atmospheric reanalysis data, we extract critical features preceding the peak intensity of these events. These features enable the prediction of extreme wind conditions up to two days in advance in both cases. For the Medicanes study, our AI model successfully predicted 65-80% of extreme cases. The predictive accuracy of Western Mediterranean coastal winds averaged a precision of 85% for the region. This innovative and versatile methodology can be adapted to diagnose various severe weather phenomena beyond Medicanes and coastal winds, offering a robust tool for climate change adaptation strategies. Our research contributes to a deeper understanding and better management of nonlinear, climate-influenced weather events in the Mediterranean region. 

How to cite: Nieves, V., Martinez-Amaya, J., and Guerrero-Navarro, G. H.: AI-Driven Predictions: Foreseeing Mediterranean Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-44, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-44, 2024.

Air temperature (T_a) plays a crucial role in numerous applications, including studies on physical stress conditions and understanding phenomena such as urban heat island (UHI). Due to the increasing frequency of summer heat waves caused by climate change, the UHI, which in itself leads to a significant rise in nighttime temperatures in cities, can cause extreme physical discomfort for humans, especially during these periods. These heat waves, like heavy rains and strong winds, belong to the category of extreme weather phenomena, and combined with the UHI, they can lead to critical conditions in cities during the summer. For this reason, it is necessary to study and accurately characterize the UHI phenomenon. This study employs innovative techniques to achieve this goal, also with a view to studying mitigation strategies to address increasingly critical summer conditions in cities.

T_a measurements, acquired from in situ sensors often distributed unevenly, are limited in describing the spatial temperature field pattern. On the other hand, land surface temperature measurements (LST) obtained from geostationary satellites provide a more detailed spatial overview, but represent a different variable. In this work, a method based on machine learning algorithms is presented for converting LST detected from geostationary satellites MSG, into air temperature. To perform the conversion, a gradient boosting algorithm, which is part of the tree-structured family of machine learning algorithms, was implemented. The method is applied to LST and T_a data available for the city of Rome (Italy) during the summers of 2019 and 2020. The T_a data are sourced from 17 weather stations, predominantly consisting of amateur stations whose quality has been verified. Using predictive variables such as instantaneous LST and with delays ranging from 1 to 4 hours, along with other parameters like altitude, imperviousness, land cover, tree cover, grassland, NDVI, and temporal parameters such as time of day, T_a was estimated, designated as the target variable, at points where no in situ measurement sensors are available. The T_a predicted by the model exhibits an average error of 1.2°C during the daytime and 0.8°C at night. This model output has improved the accuracy and spatial resolution of temperature pattern analysis across the city of Rome, compared to analyses based solely on in situ measurements. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal pattern of the UHI, which can now be measured at high resolution, aligns well with the expected pattern.

How to cite: Cecilia, A., Casasanta, G., Petenko, I., Conte, M., Conidi, A., and Argentini, S.: High Spatiotemporal Resolution Determination of the Urban Heat Island in Rome Using Satellite LST Measurements and In Situ Air Temperature Data, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-128, 2024.

The extreme climatic events are increasing worldwide and are becoming more and more recurrent. It is becoming urgent to take action to reduce them. The Mediterranean region is one of the most affected areas by the effects of climate change. The recent events in France, Spain, Greece, Turkey or even Libya reflect the violence of hydro-meteorological phenomena due in part to the rising sea temperatures. To limit the occurrence of such events, it is necessary to have some feedback. PREDICT uses post-event spatial imaging techniques such as rapid mapping to obtains geospatial data in just a few hours after the event. This permits to manage and document the consequences of such events.

Furthermore, PREDICT has been developing a program called COSPARIN (COntribution du SPAtial à la gestion du Risque INondation) for few years now, with European Space Agency (ESA) and the National Centre of Spatial studies (CNES) approval. The main goal of this program is to better understand and monitor extreme events before, during and after their occurrence. This relies on an innovative method based on the use of the most recent satellite data available as well as algorithms and artificial intelligence to establish a global estimation of precipitations and an estimation of potential flooding areas.

To improve forecasting and deploy early warning systems, Europe has set up the HORIZON program which includes a new project called GOBEYOND (GeO and weather multi-hazard impact Based Early warning and response systems supporting rapid deploYment of first respONders in EU and beyond). The aim of this project is to improve existing tools and methods by designing two platforms of Multi Risk Impact-based Early Warning System (MR-IEWS) for Europe and Mediterranean area (North Africa included). This draws on all available data, including COSPARIN satellite data, to forecast hydro-meteorological risks (floods, storms, heatwaves) and geological risks (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis). Also, this aims to promote rapid and effective operational response by those in charge of safety and to move from simple hazard forecasting to risk forecasting by taking vulnerability into account.

Keywords: Climate change, Spatial data, Forecast, Innovation

How to cite: Guillaume, L. and Alix, R.: Spatial contribution to enhance early warning solutions for adapting to climate risks, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-16, 2024.

Accurate mapping and classification of non-perennial rivers (NPRs) is currently not available. However, in EU Member states, the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000) requires continuous measurements or modeling of the natural flow rate in all water bodies. Recent studies have shown that the use of multispectral satellite imagery can effectively provide observations of flow or non-flow conditions with temporal resolution of about 5 days and limited to sections sufficiently wide (greater than around 30 m) and without vegetation cover. In addition, areas and periods with high cloud cover can lead to limitations on the availability of satellite imagery. On the other hand, the hydrological models require a large amount of data for the simulation of the water cycle in basins. The lack of gauging stations – typical condition for NPRs - for calibrating the models, and the fact that most of the models are constructed with reference to perennial rivers, make them unsuitable for simulating the hydrological regime of temporary waterbodies. Within the framework of the RIVERTEMP project [Erasmus+ 2022-1-IT02-KA220-HED-000086223], a methodology was created for combining hydrological modeling and satellite monitoring for determining the hydrological status of NPRs, using Keritis river basin (Chania, Greece) as a case study in the period 2019-2021. The analysis of the satellite images showed that in 69.5% of the observations the status of Keritis is “flowing” while in 30.5% is “ponding”. We used hydrological modeling to simulate river flows, then we calibrated the model by comparison with satellite observations and successively filled the date gaps of satellites. The comparison between satellite classification and modeled daily flowrate allowed the extraction of significant flow rate values, then used as threshold values to foresee the hydrological condition. This analysis showed that 59.6% of the results characterize the status of Keritis as “flowing”, 37% as “ponding” and 3.4% as "dry". The research results show that classified satellite data can be used to validate the prediction of hydrological models and, in turn, the results of hydrological model simulations can be used for the estimation of the hydrological conditions of NPRs when and where satellite images are not available.

How to cite: Nikolaidis, N., Lilli, M., Maragkaki, A., Cavallo, C., Manfreda, G., Papa, M. N., and Vezza, P.: Combining hydrological modeling and satellite observation to estimate the hydrological regime of non-perennial rivers, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-9, 2024.

Since early 2022, Italy has been experiencing a multi-year drought going well beyond a mere precipitation deficit to include a snow deficit, negative soil moisture anomalies, significant streamflow lows, and considerable impacts on various sectors. In the wake of this event, CIMA Research Foundation is working with the Italian Civil Protection Department to establish a real-time, multi-variable and operational water scarcity data platform for real-world applications. These analyses provide monthly snapshots of the following variables: temperature anomaly, Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Soil Moisture Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Snow-Water-Equivalent deficit, and anomalies of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation. All indices are computed at monthly resolution and are spatially explicit, with varying spatial resolutions up to a maximum of 1 km. In collaboration with the Italian Civil Protection Department, a bulletin is composed every month to translate these indices into decision-relevant information, such as the percentage of the Italian territory that is in a specific drought level every month. Future steps are the inclusion of near real-time, satellite-based information on water reservoir areas and extents for various case studies across the country.  

How to cite: Avanzi, F., Cremonese, E., isabellon, M., Trotter, L., Pulvirenti, L., Cenci, L., Squicciarino, G., Maurer, T., Gabellani, S., Duro, A., Campione, E., Puca, S., Barbani, M., Gollini, A., Rossi, L., and Ferraris, L.: Towards an operational, multi-variable, and real-time water scarcity data platform for the Italian Civil Protection Department , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-28, 2024.

El Caminito del Rey in Malaga (Spain) is a popular hiking trail known for its dramatic landscapes and towering cliffs. These cliffs, reaching up to 700 meters, are prone to rockfalls, with significant incidents reported in 2022 that damaged the pathway and blocked a segment of the exit path. This study focuses on identifying parts of the Caminito most at risk from these rockfalls and introduces a step-by-step method for assessing this hazard. Our approach begins with creating a detailed 3D digital model of the Caminito, which serves as the foundation for our susceptibility assessment. Next, we collect extensive data on the types of rocks that make up the cliffs—primarily limestone and conglomerate. This data is crucial because the rock type and structure may condition the probability of rock falls occurrence in the cliffs. With the 3D model and rock data, we then simulate potential rockfalls to see where they might impact the pathways. These simulations help us understand which areas are the most exposed to these phenomena. The results of simulations may help in reducing hazard supporting decisions on solutions to decrease the exposure of visitors to rockfalls. This contribution shares the results of our assessment in the Caminito del Rey and discusses how these findings could lead to better ways to prevent rockfalls and make the pathway safer. Our research offers a practical tool for the Caminito managers to better prepare for and prevent rockfalls.

How to cite: Galve, J. P., Sarro, R., Pérez-García, J. L., Ruiz-Fuentes, A., Gómez-López, J. M., Jerez-Longres, P. S., Martínez-Corbella, M., Riquelme, A., Mateos, R. M., and Azañón, J. M.: Rock fall susceptibility assessment at Caminito del Rey, Málaga, Spain, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-15, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-15, 2024.

The projected increase in frequency of flood extremes, attributed to climate change, poses a significant threat to coastal regions throughout the Mediterranean. Consequences encompass extensive geomorphological changes, infrastructural degradation, property damage, pollution of the aquatic environment, and other adverse socio-economic impacts, also threating the blue economy—a vital economic driver of the region. Acknowledging the pivotal role of coastal areas as critical nodes for both economic activities and ecologically valuable natural landscapes, it becomes imperative to deepen our understanding of the mechanisms and extents to which extreme flood events can impact these vulnerable coastal zones.

This work focuses on exploring the impacts on the coastline of recent extreme storm events in the Eastern Mediterranean. The study aims to explore and classify the typology of effects, the severity of impacts and examine their spatial distribution as means to contribute to an improved understanding of extreme storm and flooding consequences in the region.

How to cite: Diakakis, M., Gogou, M., Filis, C., Mavroulis, S., Sarantopoulou, A., Kapris, I., Vassilakis, E., Katsetsiadou, K.-N., Kotsi, E., Spyrou, N., Konsolaki, A., Stamati, E., and Lekkas, E.: Impacts of extreme storm and flood events on coastal areas: Data from recent disasters in the Eastern Mediterranean region., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-60, 2024.

Some of the most disruptive effects of climate change are projected to be felt along the coastlines. The combined effects of future changes in water levels and wave climate along the coastal areas constitute one of the most serious threats to their sustainable evolution, compromising critical infrastructures, resources, ecosystems, and communities. Understanding long-term changes in coastal areas remains challenging, however, due to their multivariate and multi-time-and-space-scale nature. In this study, we propose an innovative methodology for a complete vulnerability assessment of sandy low-lying coastal areas, based on dynamic, ensemble-based projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The effects of sea level rise (SLR) and nearshore wave climate changes on future shoreline evolution are firstly assessed at five key-locations along the Portuguese coastline. Longshore sediment transport (LST) projections are computed, and sedimentary imbalances are quantified. Robust shoreline retreat of up to 300 m is projected, especially along the Portuguese northern and central coastal areas, with continued erosion driven mainly by sediment imbalance and SLR. The projected decrease in future nearshore wave energy is responsible for a slight alleviation in erosion trends, up to 6.33%, whereas the increase of northerly incoming waves is expected to lead to northward beach rotations along western Mainland Portugal. The resulting shoreline evolution is responsible for the loss of up to 0.786 km² of dry land by 2100 along the 14 kilometers of analyzed coastline. Based on the shoreline projections, new digital terrain models are built for the five key-locations, and future extreme total water levels are obtained through a probabilistic approach, defining wave events considering high wave energy thresholds in a changing climate. The results reveal that extreme coastal flooding is projected across several urbanized sections along the Portuguese coastline, especially in areas without artificial protection infrastructures. As dune erosion is expected along the sandy stretches, the natural protection against extreme coastal events is projected to be reduced by up to 13.3%, promoting widespread overtopping, leaving populations more exposed. Future projections reveal the episodic flooding of up to 1.47 km² of land across the five key-locations, threatening households and commercial hubs, besides services and communication routes. Overall, as physical and human losses may increase substantially in the future, our results call for the implementation of adequate coastal management and adaptation plans, strategically defined to withstand changes until 2100 and beyond.

This research has been funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). 

How to cite: Lemos, G., Bosnic, I., Antunes, C., Vousdoukas, M., Mentaschi, L., Santo, M., Ferreira, V., and Soares, P. M. M.: The future of the Portuguese most vulnerable coastal areas under climate change – shoreline evolution and future extreme coastal flooding from downscaled bias corrected ensembles, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-100, 2024.

Understanding and managing the risks associated with extreme hydro-geological events, such as floods, is crucial for the Mediterranean region. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for analysing and integrating sparse data on extreme flood events to enhance future flood risk assessments. By reconstructing historical flood events using limited data sources such as rainfall records, flood marks, visual documentation, and eyewitness testimonies, we aim to develop a robust framework for understanding hydrological responses to extreme weather conditions. By leveraging historical data and advanced modelling techniques, this research contributes to the improved assessment and prediction of hydro-geological risks, ultimately aiding in the development of more resilient infrastructures and communities in the Mediterranean region.

How to cite: Stamataki, I., Kjeldsen, T. R., Rossello, J., and Sabeti, R.: Analysing extreme flood events in the Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-120, 2024.

Storm Daniel, the deadliest recorded Mediterranean tropical-like (medicane) storm, led to severe floods in large parts of the eastern-central Mediterranean, including Greece and northern Libya. Extreme rainfall, reaching more than 400 mm day^-1, triggered a flash flood in Wadi Derna (Libya)– an ephemeral river with a drainage area of 575 km² that crosses the city of Derna at its outlet to the Mediterranean Sea. In the 1970s, dams were built in Wadi Derna basin to mitigate flood risks. However, during Storm Daniel, at least two dams were breached by a flash flood that inundated much of the city of Derna and resulted in over 5,000 casualties, thousands of missing persons, and tens of thousands of displaced people. The devastating event was the focus of media coverage for a long time, but many questions with implications for other dammed Mediterranean regions are still open. Here, we focus on three main research questions: (a) How unique and extreme were the storm and meteorological conditions of Storm Daniel? (b) How extreme was the flood? And (c) What could have been the flood outcome if dams hadn't been built upstream in the first place?

To analyze the characteristics of Storm Daniel over Wadi Derna, the catchment’s hydrological response, and the impact of the flood on the city of Derna, we integrate various datasets and models. Satellite-based precipitation estimations (IMERG) were used to quantify spatiotemporal storm properties and the catchment-scale rainfall, which were fed into the KINEROS2-RHEM hydrological model to quantify surface runoff. The modeled flood hydrograph is then fed into a 2D hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) to test three end-member scenarios: (a) dam filling, overflow, and collapse, (b) dam overflow but no collapse, and (c) no dams exist in the wadi. This combination of methods reveals that the peak discharge during the flood was ~1,400 m³ s^-1, falling below the expected maximum extreme flood for this region. Based on the total discharge volume, we estimated the return period of the flood as 33-50 years. In the dam-collapse scenario, the populated flooded area is 40% larger and ten-fold more destructive than the no-dam scenario. Given the high variability of precipitation in the Mediterranean and the projected increase in extreme precipitation intensity under climate change, the Wadi Derna flood should serve as a warning sign for other populated areas downstream of dams in similar environments.

How to cite: Dente, E., Armon, M., and Shmilovitz, Y.: Chronicle of a disaster foretold: The Storm Daniel dam-breaching flood at Derna, Libya, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-6, 2024.

In mountainous regions, temperature conditions directly affect precipitation phase (liquid or solid) and, in turn, runoff formation and the probability of flood events. The projected temperature increase due to global warming therefore directly affects the fraction of liquid precipitation during heavy storms, leading to a potential intensification of the flood regime. In this study we assess the impact of temperature threshold selection for splitting precipitation into rainfall and snowfall, on the projected changes in the liquid fraction of precipitation during extreme events in the upper Adige River catchment (Eastern Italian Alps). To this aim, we use an ensemble of convection-permitting climate models (CPM), which are well suited to the task given their ability to explicitly represent deep convection and to resolve the mountainous topography. The CPM data provided by the CORDEX-FPS Convection project at 1 hour temporal resolution and remapped to 3 km spatial resolution cover historical and far future (2090-2099) time periods under the extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). Future changes of rainfall extremes are obtained using the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value approach, which is applied to the CPM simulations for frequency analysis. This approach provides estimates of extreme return levels with reduced uncertainty with respect to traditional methods. Three different temperature thresholds are used (i.e. 1, 1.5 and 2°C) and different elevation bands are considered within the catchment. Our preliminary results indicate an increase of liquid precipitation return levels that is dependent both on temperature threshold and elevation. In particular, larger increments are obtained for lower temperature thresholds and higher elevations. Moreover, the event duration seems to have an impact on the results, with a stronger signal for long duration storms. The results highlight the importance of addressing uncertainty in the quantification of future rainfall extremes in a mountainous area, with strong implications for water resources management and adaptation strategies.

How to cite: Pesce, M., Dallan, E., Marra, F., Fosser, G., Vohnicky, P., Akbary, R., and Borga, M.: Impact of temperature threshold selection on future changes of liquid precipitation return levels based on convection-permitting models, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-113, 2024.

Understanding projected changes in sub-daily extreme rainfall in mountainous basins can help increase our capability to adapt to and mitigate against flash floods and debris flows. Here we compare the changes in extreme rainfall projections from apparent Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) temperature scaling against those obtained from convection-permitting climate model simulations. Temperature and precipitation projections are obtained from an ensemble of convection-permitting climate models (CPM), which are suitable to the task given their ability to explicitly represent deep convection and to resolve the mountainous topography. The CPM data provided by the CORDEX-FPS Convection project at 1-hour temporal and remapped to 3 km spatial resolution, cover historical and far-future (2090-2099) time periods under the extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). Due to the computational demands however, CPM simulations are still too short (typically 10-20 years) for analyzing extremes using conventional methods. We use a non-asymptotic statistical approach (the Metastatistical Extreme Value, MEVD, Marani and Ignaccolo, 2015) for the analysis of extremes from short time periods, such as the ones of CPM simulations. We use hourly precipitation and temperature data from 174 stations in an orographically complex area in northeastern Italy as a benchmark.

In this study, we considered two temperatures approach for computing CC scaling: the mean annual temperature and the temperature during extreme events (top 20% of ordinary events). Our findings indicate that elevation significantly influences temperature changes during storms, with higher elevation areas experiencing more pronounced temperature increases in the future. This is further highlighted by seasonal shifts in storm occurrence, as we found storms moving from summer to fall in lowlands, suggesting a lower delta T for those storms. This same pattern was detected using the temperature during storms for CC scaling, showing that extremes are increasing more in higher elevations than in lowlands. We found this comparably captured by CC scaling approach, however, variations in return levels are also notable in CPMs when considering different return periods, as we find CPM changes depending on them, which contradicts the results from both CC scaling approaches. These findings identify that CC scaling agrees with CPM changes to some extend when the right temperature is selected, however, it emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of the scaling method's applicability under various conditions.

How to cite: Akbary, R., Marani, M., Dallan, E., and Borga, M.: Comparing extreme sub-daily rainfall projections from convection-permitting climate models and temperature-scaling across an Alpine gradient, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-122, 2024.

Reducing flood-related deaths necessitates a deeper comprehension of the risk elements involved and the implementation of effective mitigation strategies. To understand the differences in flood-related deaths between developed and developing countries within a Mediterranean framework, we compiled a comprehensive database documenting 242 cases of mortality in western Algeria and Calabria, southern Italy. This database spans over a 33-year timeframe from 1990 to 2022, encompassing details such as the time and place of fatal accidents, victim characteristics, circumstances of death, and victim behaviour. In order to highlight the people's vulnerability, we have innovatively developed 13 mortality indices consolidated into four comprehensive indices: i) human, ii) physical, iii) environmental, and iv) circumstantial. The findings indicated a reduction in severe mortality incidents and the yearly number of flood-related deaths in both areas. The frequency of fatalities and the average number of deaths per year are higher in western Algeria, although the average number of fatalities per flood is practically the same. The flood mortality seasonality is similar oppositely to the spatial distribution. The assessment of mortality indices revealed similarities in vulnerability, except for the flood risk identification, rainfall and event death indices, which highlight the vulnerability of western Algeria, requiring prevention and protection actions suggested in this study. A key area for future research is to focus on the complex interaction between precipitation and basin-scale conditions, which would further strengthen the investigation into the role of victim behaviour in flood-related incidents. Moreover, refining the proposed indices with precision and validating their assessment procedures could offer novel, practical recommendations for saving lives in future flood events.

How to cite: Petrucci, O. and Sardou, M.: Comparison of flood mortality indices between western Algeria and southern Italy to enhance flood risk assessment within the Mediterranean framework, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-41, 2024.

Since fifteen years, there have been many publications on flood-related mortality, especially in Europe. However, the countries on the southern side of the Mediterranean sea (northern Africa) have received little attention. This presentation introduce the results of a study on flood-related mortality in Morocco and Tunisia. The period covered is 1980-2020, to ensure consistency with European publications. The method used starts from research in the newpapers, internet, existing database such as EM-DAT and in scientific and technical bibliography. Identified flood related fatalities are then confirmed on field, especially to obtain the location and the accurate circumstances of of the deaths.

1,400 deaths in Morocco and 275 in Tunisia have been identified between 1980 and 2020, but the number of deaths is probably underestimated before 1995 in Morocco and before 2010 in Tunisia. Indeed, data quality varies considerably from one period to the next. In Morocco, the Ourika flood event that triggered between 200 to 700 fatalities in August 1995 raised awareness of the issue of flooding. Since then, data collection has become much more accurate. In Tunisia, it was the spread of the Internet and the 2011 revolution that enabled flood information to be disseminated, particularly in the newspapers. The mortality rate for each country's population ranges from 0.66 (Tunisia) to 1.2 (Morocco) death per year and per million inhabitants.

The first result is the predominance of outdoor fatalities, either by car or pedestrians, for example when crossing wadis. Deaths at home are rarer than in Europe. We must note in Morocco the specific case of old houses that collapse during heavy rainstorms events. The age of dead people is younger than in Europe, reflecting the youth of the North African population. Men are over-represented. The geographical distribution of deaths shows mortality hotspots linked to population distribution. In Tunisia, fatalities have concentrated over the last ten years in the Tunis city region and along the coast, reflecting the increase in population along the coast.

How to cite: Vinet, F., Tramblay, Y., El Mehdi Saidi, M., Cherel, J., fehri, N., Ben Boubaker, H., Mahe, G., Gimenez, R., and Tissot, O.: Flood-related mortality in Tunisia and Morocco. Initial results for the period 1980-2020, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-19, 2024.

Flood fatalities are a significant challenge in the Euro-Mediterranean region, demanding a deeper exploration of the connection between rainfall patterns and the occurrence of flood-related deaths. While previous studies have documented the profiles, temporal and spatial contexts, and circumstances of flood fatalities in this region, they have primarily focused on demographic, social, and behavioural factors, often neglecting weather-related hazard parameters. This study aims to address this gap. In our research, we utilize the open-access Flood Fatalities from the Euro-Mediterranean region database (FFEM-DB), which encompasses 2,875 flood fatalities from 1980 to 2020. We define rainfall hazard variables by analyzing rainfall data from the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) V2.8 dataset. Then, we assess the role of rainfall amounts in explaining flood fatalities in conjunction with geomorphological parameters and socio-demographic changes over the study period. We employ various statistical techniques to investigate rainfall's temporal and spatial patterns and their association with flood fatalities. We also emphasize the importance of historical rainfall patterns in assessing flood risk and designing effective disaster management strategies. The insights gained from this study enhance the existing knowledge of the factors influencing flood fatalities in the Euro-Mediterranean region.

This research is performed in the frame of SNOWCLIM project funded by ECF.

How to cite: Papagiannaki, K., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Diakakis, M., and Kyriakou, P.: Analysis of the relationship of 41-yrs reanalysis rainfall data and flood fatalities in the Euro-Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-91, 2024.

Despite advancements in flood risk mitigation, many regions globally still experience severe flood disasters leading to significant loss of life. Estimating the frequency of such catastrophic events is challenging, particularly in areas with limited disaster and instrumental records. Nevertheless, accurate frequency estimates are crucial for preparedness and civil protection, especially in the context of climate change and the projected increase of such events. This study presents a comprehensive database of high-mortality floods in the Eastern Mediterranean from 1882 to 2021, enabling a detailed analysis of the deadliest events and their seasonal, temporal, and spatial characteristics. The database identifies 132 flood events (causing 10 or more fatalities), occurring on average every 1.56 years. While less frequent, high-magnitude events (above the 85th percentile) were observed to have a return period of 9.1 years in the region. The analysis indicates an increase in high-mortality flood events in recent decades and highlights distinct seasonal and spatial patterns. The findings provide a basis for an improved understanding of catastrophic flood occurrences in the region and specifically on how common such events can be. Additionally, this research represents a significant step towards comprehensively understanding historical trends in extreme floods and their potential future trajectories.

How to cite: Diakakis, M., Papagiannaki, K., and Fouskaris, M.: Evaluating the frequency of high-mortality flash floods in the Eastern Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-73, 2024.

Reducing the loss of life and the number of people affected by natural disasters, including landslides and floods, is an expected outcome of the Sendai Framework that provided a set of guiding principles, including a call for the integration of a gender perspective. Previous studies on natural disasters have documented how people's social roles shape their experiences of disasters, their vulnerability, and their ability to respond and recover, highlighting how people's mortality in disasters can be dramatically exacerbated by their gender.
Within this framework, the main motivation guiding the present research is to understand how risk perception affected people behaviors divided by gender and age. At this aim the methodology we used consisted in carrying out a nationwide questionnaire in collaboration with an Italian independent Marketing Research Institute (Piepoli) to quantitatively measure the levels of geo-hydrological risk perception. For the purpose, we prepared the questionnaires designed to help the interviewees to consider first their general feelings about environmental and natural risks, and next, their specific understanding and fear of landslide and flood risk. The sampling strategy used a classification based on demographic variables, including: the size and distribution of the population in each Italian macro-region, the sex by age and the education degree.
Results were compared with the observed distribution by gender and age of landslide and flood fatalities in Italy. 
The analysis is crucial to single out population groups most vulnerable to geo-hydrological hazard in Italy. The results obtained are important to improve the safety of people, to increase the resilience of communities to landslides and floods and to design effective informative risk reduction campaigns, as we have found that gender influences landslide and flood mortality. Data disaggregated by gender, age, and environment allowed the identification of possible associations between influential variables, and the selection of those that were most (statistically) significant. The norms of social processes related to the risk cycle may vary according to age, gender, and culture, as well as the social and economic context in which people live. In addition, the gender norms referred to the rules in different social groups (i.e. family, workplace, institution) are key factors in explaining how individuals respond to risk. In conclusion, the potential of gender analysis applied to that field, can promote the efficiency of the measures adopted to respond to crises and enable social equality in the response to the direct and indirect damage caused by geo-hydrological disasters, not only in Italy but everywhere.

How to cite: Salvati, P., Antronico, L., Bianchi, C., Carone, M. T., Coscarelli, R., Gariano, S., Rossi, M., and Sessa, M.: Geo-hydrological events and human losses: a gender perspective, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-114, 2024.

Effective decision-making during high-impact hydrometeorological events such as floods is crucial to mitigate adverse socio-economic impacts. Traditional approaches often fall short of providing adequate guidance under uncertain conditions. In this study, we explore the effectiveness of cooperative gaming in enhancing decision-making processes during such crises. 

As part of the European ANYWHERE project, we developed ANYCaRE (Anywhere Crisis and Risk Experiment), a role-playing game simulating a crisis management unit responsible for ensuring the safety of populations during weather crises. Simulated high-impact events include floods/flash floods and wind storms. A more complex scenario simulated cross-border CBRN hazards. Players take on the roles of representatives of the various organizations in the crisis unit. They must collectively choose the best options for ensuring people's safety in the face of a damaging and rapidly evolving event. The chronology adapted to the pace of the hazard under consideration: three successive rounds of play simulate and anticipate the evolution of the risk, from detection to impact.

The primary aim of the game was to assess the benefits of new forecasts and impact-based products in decision-making under pressure. The S-ANYCaRE version tested how public information from social media is used in emergency centers to decide on protection and risk communication. Since 2017, over 300 participants engaged in real-time decision-making exercises testing probabilistic forecasts and impact-based information in various settings, including European workshops, training courses, and emergency operations centers. Post-game investigation suggests that these forecasts, including crowdsourcing data, increase decision-makers confidence during the crisis. In the debriefing phase, stakeholders highlighted challenges in managing data overload and prioritizing actions.

The serious games approach developed in this study proved valuable in fostering interdisciplinary cooperation and raising awareness about the complexities of managing weather-related emergencies. The playing scenarios require strategic thinking amidst uncertainty, facilitating a better understanding of flood crisis management. Therefore, we envisage using game sessions for multiple purposes, including the sensibilization of participants to the challenges of managing weather emergencies, facilitating cooperation between developers and end-users for the development of efficient pre-operational forecast products, and training civil protection authorities and stakeholders in new disaster management tools.

The evolution of PICSCaRE, a version of the game simulating a recent flood catastrophe in southern France, into a participative simulation tool marks a significant advancement. This tool, combining the tabletop role-playing game with a digital agent-based behavior simulator currently under development, will enable players to test the effectiveness of their crisis management and communication measures on individual responses and the frequency of endangerment situations.

This study presents the stages of development of this hybrid version and its potential to raise awareness of the variety of behavioral responses to changing hydrometeorological circumstances and associated socio-economic impacts. We envisage that integrating serious games into routine flood crisis management exercises enhances decision-making skills and preparedness. In particular, combining impact models with serious games would foster better risk communication and adaptive strategies. As hydrometeorological events increase in frequency and severity, innovative approaches like simulation games are crucial for reducing socio-economic vulnerabilities in a changing climate.

How to cite: Terti, G., Ruin, I., Gaudou, B., Grancher, D., Bodini, D., Nicolle, P., and Payrastre, O.: Improving decision-making during high-impact hydrometeorological events: A series of serious games for flood crisis management exercises, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-68, 2024.

Research in flood mitigation techniques is increasingly focused in investigating how proactive and bottom-up approaches can be effectively integrated in flood risk management. In particular, the role of stakeholders and communities has been recognized as relevant in planning strategies for risk prevention and management. In this framework, the scientific community is recognizing the added value of non-authoritative and unconventional sources to obtain precious details about flood events, including citizen contribution at different levels of engagement. Despite the high amount of information potentially retrievable, this research field still suffers from systematic data collection, especially in urban areas. In fact, citizens are rarely actively involved in monitoring programs, and their contribution is often limited to a spontaneous sharing of photos and videos on social platforms during or after the events. Despite not being systematically organized, these sources of information can support various applications related to flood studies, involving not only hydraulic and hydrological aspects but also the human dimension. Literature covering methods and applications exploiting social media data in different fields is widely diffused, including topics as flood mapping, flood modelling (constraint, calibration, and validation), risk assessment (vulnerability, hazard, impacts or damages), and human reactions to flood occurrence (sentiment analysis, human behavior), with the potential of applications for emergency management. However, research on this topic is often focused only single aspects, whereas an integrated perspective is needed to accomplish the requirements of flood risk management, which calls for information that is both physical and related to human response. In this study, a workflow is proposed for a systematic collection and analysis of video content to support the retrieval of different kind of fine-grained information about flood events dynamics and their impacts. The workflow applied to the case study of Crotone (southern Italy), which experienced a severe urban flood in 2020, produced an example of a georeferenced information collection, potentially suitable for integrated analysis on flood risk. Our research provides further insights about strengths and limitations of crowdsourced information and its potential role in the design of flood risk mitigation strategies.

How to cite: Lombardo, M., Chiaravalloti, F., Totaro, V., and Petrucci, O.: Fine-grained information collection from social media for supporting integrated approaches to flood risk analysis, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-67, 2024.

Citizen science is a powerful tool for promoting the understanding of urban climate and potential climate change hazards. By engaging citizens in scientific research and data collection, we can harness the collective power of communities to gather valuable information and contribute to our knowledge of urban climate dynamics.

The H2020 I-CHANGE project (Individual Change of HAbits Needed for Green European transition, https://ichange-project.eu/) faces the challenge of engaging and promoting the active participation of citizens for addressing climate change, sustainable development and environmental protection in the framework of the European Green Deal, the European Climate Pact and the European Biodiversity Strategy for 2030.

Also the HE project AGORA (A Gathering place to cO-design and co-cReate Adaptation, https://adaptationagora.eu/) has the ambition to contribute in building climate change adaptation roadmaps by fostering the participation and engagement of citizens and stakeholders in the co-design and co-creation of innovative problem-oriented climate adaptation solutions.

In this framework, citizens can be trained, in the I-CHANGE project, to collect weather data using simple, low-cost monitoring tools. This data can then be aggregated and analysed to identify trends, patterns, and potential climate change hazards specific to urban areas. On the other hand, in the AGORA project, citizens can contribute to populate inventories on climate data, climate risks and climate adaptation and to develop the Digital Academy focused on a proper usage of climate data. Engaging citizens in this process fosters a sense of ownership and responsibility for their environment while also increasing their awareness of the impacts of climate change. By actively participating in data collection, citizens gain firsthand experience of how climate variables affect their daily lives and communities. Moreover, citizen science initiatives can be integrated into educational programs at schools, allowing students to actively participate in scientific research and contribute to the understanding of urban climate.

Leveraging technology can enhance citizen engagement and data collection. Mobile applications and online platforms can be developed to facilitate data entry, provide real-time information, and encourage collaboration among participants. These digital tools make it easier for citizens to contribute to ongoing research efforts, access educational resources, and visualize the collected data, further promoting understanding of urban climate dynamics. All these “non-standard” measurements can be used (after a strict quality control) to enrich the official network in areas where it is more needed. In this work we will focus on urban areas to show how data collected by citizens can help in understanding the Urban Heat Island effect, also in relation to Heat Waves.

How to cite: Milelli, M., Oberto, E., Uboldi, F., Polo, L., Parodi, A., Adinolfi, M., and Mercogliano, P.: Enhancing the engagement of citizens in weather data collection: the AGORA and I-CHANGE Projects approach, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-83, 2024.

The main objective of the OCEANIDS project is to develop user-driven applications and tools, aiming to enhance and facilitate regional authorities and stakeholders, fostering a systemic pathway that promotes resilience and inclusivity leading to a Blue Economy in coastal regions. The project focuses on facilitating a comprehensive seascape management approach by integrating spatial and non-spatial data and diverse services into a single-access window platform for Climate-Informed Maritime Spatial Planning (CI-MSP). The core innovation is the OCEANIDS Decision Support Platform (O-DSP) which focuses on the harmonization and curation of climate and meteorological data services, making them accessible, reusable, and interoperable to support local adaptation strategies. OCEANIDS enhances adaptive capacities and supports transformative innovations by providing critical access to knowledge, data, and digital services essential for understanding and managing climate risks. The project emphasizes inclusivity as a pivotal factor in advancing a Blue Economy, focusing on both individual and systemic behavioural changes, enabling participating regions and communities to better understand and use potential social tipping points to accelerate transformative changes towards climate resilience. OCEANIDS focuses on promoting inclusive and deliberative governance through meaningful engagement and dialogue between citizens and stakeholders. This shall be achieved via case-specific tools, such as ephemeral social networks, which support local citizens' assemblies for bottom-up deliberation promoting this way civic engagement, and empowering individuals to take action within their communities. Moreover, OCEANIDS contributes to mobilizing sustainable finance and resources, aiming to scale adaptation efforts and close the climate protection gap. The project’s multidisciplinary approach aligns with Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) objectives, climate change adaptation, and sustainable development, providing a robust framework for enhancing resilience to mitigate risks in Mediterranean coastal regions.

How to cite: Marinou, E., Kolokoussis, P., Kontopoulos, C., and Charalampopoulou, V. (.: OCEANIDS: Empowering Citizen-Driven Climate Resilience and Inclusive Governance for a Sustainable Blue Economy in Mediterranean Coastal Regions, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-47, 2024.

Urban Living Labs are vital collaborative spaces where citizens, researchers, and stakeholders join forces to tackle local challenges, but of wide interest for different socio-economic and climatic context. By involving citizens, Living Labs ensure that solutions align closely with individuals needs and priorities, fostering community engagement and ownership. Additionally, these Labs serve as innovation hubs, bringing together diverse expertise to drive forward creative and effective strategies.

The I-CHANGE (Individual Change of HAbits Needed for Green European transition, 2021-2025) H2020 project aims to foster active citizen participation in addressing climate change-related issues. Through engaging citizens and local stakeholders, the project promotes behavioral and consumption shifts towards sustainability, utilizing citizen science experiments and campaigns. This is facilitated through a network of Living Labs situated in various socio-economic and geographical contexts, including Barcelona (Spain), Bologna (Italy), Genoa (Italy) and Jerusalem (Israel) along the Mediterranean basin and the cities of Amsterdam (the Netherlands), Dublin (Ireland), Hasselt (Belgium) and Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso). The Living Labs involve citizens, civil society, industry and public administration, playing a crucial role in transitioning to more sustainable behaviors.

One of the project initiatives has been the cooperation of the eight Living Labs for the organization of the I-CHANGE Day in the framework of the European Green Week, a joint effort to work in common campaigns and citizen science activities using low-cost sensors for measuring meteorological and air pollution variables. During this day, all the Living Labs participating in the project have engaged citizens within common citizen science campaigns. The project has chosen a meaningful date for this occasion, June the 5^th 2024, the World Environmental Day.

The first proposed joint campaign was related to air pollution measurement in the cities of the Living Labs. Low-cost air quality sensors have been installed in Barcelona, Bologna, Genoa, Dublin, and Ouagadougou cities and have collected data for a common period until the I-CHANGE Day. The main objective was to compare the level of air pollution in the different regions where the sensors are installed and use these data for citizen engagement. This engagement increased citizens’ sensitization to the impacts of air pollution and the importance of advocating for more sustainable behaviours in their communities. A detailed protocol has been developed to guide the campaign through its different phases.

The second common campaign was a citizen-science experiment where citizens from Amsterdam, Barcelona, Bologna, Dublin, Genoa, Hasselt, Jerusalem, and Ouagadougou collected high spatio-temporal resolution data of temperature, humidity, and pressure to investigate temperature perception in specific areas of each city, the role played by temperature and humidity, and reflect on the social use of those spaces. The comparison between the locations selected and their social usages have provided critical information on the relevance of spaces for the different communities. Evaluating temperature perception and comparing it with collected data can provide insights for developing novel solutions and assess the effectiveness of already implemented natural-based solutions in the urban areas.

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement 101037193

How to cite: Esbri, L., Llasat, M. C., Llasat-Botija, M., Marcos, R., Sola, Y., Adnan, M., Campos, G., Cintolesi, C., Dorato, S., Mölter, A., Polo, L., Steeneveld, G.-J., Torou, B. M., Di Sabatino, S., and Parodi, A. and the I-CHNAGE Living Labs: Living Labs and citizen science to activate change of individual habits in a context of Climate Change: the I-CHANGE Day , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-94, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-94, 2024.

In recent decades, Climate Change is causing the increasing of frequency and intensity of weather-related extreme events, exposing several populations to risk. Therefore, measures to mitigate the impacts resulting from this phenomenon are increasingly necessary.

To devise effective strategies, it is essential to consider that many losses are due to numerous factors, including economic and social ones. A crucial role is played by the behaviors adopted by people, and the extent to which people are willing to make changes to their lifestyles.

Therefore, mitigation measures to be truly effective should include important non-structural actions. This refers to strategies that work on social aspects of communities that influence their resilience. There are many elements that influence social resilience, and among them risk perception plays a crucial role. Risk perception, however, is linked to numerous other aspects such as propensity to prepare for the event with adaptation measures, awareness and knowledge, good communication and information, trust in institutions, cultural background, and even having experienced a previous disaster. Moreover, the literature  points out that these aspects are strongly influenced by gender and socio-economic differences related to the specific involved area. Therefore, understanding these differences is a key for the implementation of effective climate change adaptation strategies.

To achieve this, a nationwide survey on risk perception related to Climate Change was carried out to better understand the aspects listed above. Data were collected by administering interviews conducted between April 12 and 19, 2023 using CATI/CAMI/CAWI methodology to a representative sample of the Italian population and then weighted to be representative for the overall sample. The results refer to the adult population (1279 interviews) divided by gender and by Italian territorial macro-areas (NW, NE, Center, South, Islands).

The obtained results and the differences noted between genders and different Italian macro-areas provide a fundamental basis for better calibration of climate change adaptation measures aimed at increasing the resilience of Italian population.

How to cite: Carone, M. T., Antronico, L., Coscarelli, R., Gariano, S. L., Sessa, M., and Salvati, P.: Climate Change perception in different Italian macro-areas, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-96, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-96, 2024.

Climate change and overheating pose significant risks and challenges for humans, for the
environment, and for contemporary cities. Among its consequences, urban overheating,
extreme weather events and heatwaves very often affect human life at various levels,
developing several societal, economic, and natural hazards. The Mediterranean region is one of
the most exposed to climate change risks areas in the world, due to its specific climate and
geographic characteristics in combination with the existing socio-economic gaps, population
growth and migration levels. Countries and cities located around the Mediterranean area
suffered from increased temperatures and heatwaves several times in recent years. Indicatively,
Cooling Degree Days -an indicator expressing the demand for space cooling due to increased
weather temperatures- have increased by around 57% since 1979 in Greece, according to
official statistics. Following the need to address these challenges, this study aims to identify and
evaluate the impacts and risks of overheating in the context of climate change in Greek cities. It
uses the method of Operational Risk Management in three steps. Firstly, it investigates the
hazards and risks of climate change through extended research in the recent literature,
classifying them to risks for humans (health, employment), environment (disaster of
ecosystems) and cities (building environment, economy, society). Secondly, the assessment of
the identified hazards is implemented through the evaluation done by different city stakeholders
involved in urban activities (public entities, research and academy, private sector, non-
governmental organizations, citizens). The results from the stakeholders are used at a later
stage for calculations, leading to a ranking of the hazards by importance/severity and by
probability of happening soon. The findings could shed light on the most vulnerable aspects of
the cities affected by climate change. This evaluation and the resulted ranking could be also an
important finding for policymakers to design and implement Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and
climate adaptation policies.
Keywords: climate change; heatwaves; Operational Risk Management; hazards severity

How to cite: Tsemekidi Tzeiranaki, S., Papagou, M., and Tsoutsos, T.: Climate change and overheating: A multi-level risk assessment of impacts on Greek cities, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-108, 2024.

As warming and drying future conditions may significantly affect the human and natural environment in the Mediterranean, the climate risks and vulnerabilities assessments are key to support adaptation strategies. In this context, the Portuguese National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100 (RNA2100) aimed at providing scientific support to adaptation  policy exercises by (1) identifying and characterising climate change impacts on the most vulnerable domains in Portugal Mainland; (2) characterising socioeconomic impacts on different territorial scales and assess financial needs; and (3) contributing to the implementation of a National Spatial Planning Policy Programme. The most vulnerable domains focused by the RNA2100 include the coastal regions, water resources/agroforestry and wildfires. The RNA2100 followed three stages: regional climate scenarization, biophysical impacts for a number of sectors and hazards, and the economic analysis of selected impacts. The future projected climate for Portugal was characterized using a weighted multi-model multi-variable ensemble based on the EURO-CORDEX simulations, produced at 12 km resolution. One historical present climate period (1971-2000) and three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100), under three different scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), were considered. The biophysical impact modelling was performed for four climate impact sectors: coastal erosion and flooding, forest fires, water and agroforestry systems.

Climate change poses a significant threat to water resources and agroforestry in mainland Portugal. Southern regions, particularly beyond the Tagus River, will face more significant impacts, with the Water Exploitation Index plus (WEI+) potentially increasing by up to +99 percentage points under RCP8.5 or around +22 points under RCP4.5. Without adaptation, economic losses could average €426 million annually under the moderate mitigation scenario and approach €670 million under the high emissions scenario. Even meeting Paris Agreement targets could still result in yearly losses of €172 million by 2100. The discourse on climate adaptation and wildfire management in the five NUTS II regions emphasizes the importance of multifaceted strategies in confronting the escalating threat of wildfires exacerbated by climate change. The results emphasize the pivotal role of awareness initiatives with coercive measures is crucial to effectively reduce ignitions and mitigate projected losses (saving from 290,000 euros/year in A.M.L. to 88 million euros/year in Centro). Portuguese coastal areas are extensively vulnerable to climate change impacts, with projections showing up to 587 km2 (RCP4.5) and 604 km2 (RCP8.5) of vulnerable coastlines by the end of the 21st century. Adaptation is overall recommended at national scale, despite the different results yielded by the cost-benefit analysis, depending on the region. Total inaction costs (without adaptation) are projected to surpass 12000 million € (RCP4.5) and 14000 million € (RCP8.5) until 2100, in contrast with approximately 5000 million € (for both scenarios) of expected adaptation costs.

Acknowledgements

This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). The authors would like also to acknowledge the EEA-Financial Mechanism 2014–2021 and the Portuguese Environment Agency through the Pre-defined Project-2 National Roadmap for Adaptation XXI (PDP-2).

How to cite: Soares, P. M. M. and the FCUL Team: The Portuguese National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-117, 2024.

For the first time in 2023, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addressed the specific impact of our changing climate on the Mediterranean Basin. According to the IPCC, this geographical area shows a unique (historical and) environmental identity, including physiographic and ecological features. Specifically, the Mediterranean region faces regional climate change-induced risks, surpassing the global average and accentuated by the area’s heightened vulnerability, not limited to the environmental aspects.

In this context, the natural ecosystem is confronted to a growing array of challenges from diverse nature: wildfires, floods, desertification. The repercussions extend beyond environmental concerns, directly jeopardizing national and regional security, and generating a cascade of economic, social, and political effects.

Space-based technologies play a significant role in addressing the challenges of climate resilience, as evidenced by the on-going implementation of over one hundred projects already using space solutions in Mediterranean countries. Ranging from the development of fully-fledged systems to smaller-scale local initiatives, these projects are aimed at addressing several of the above-mentioned challenges, depending on available resources and policy priorities.

Beyond providing insights on the plethora of space-based solutions currently used and planned to address climate resilience challenges, this paper will provide:

• An overview of how these projects are aligned with climate resilience challenges as identified and prioritised by Mediterranean countries in their climate policies. These encompass a spectrum of general and sectorial mitigation and adaptation strategies addressing climate-related concerns, complemented by security and disaster risk management policies.
• A gap analysis highlighting climate resilience challenges where space-based solutions still hold untapped potential.
• A series of policy recommendations to maximise the positive impact of space on climate resilience in the Mediterranean region, built on the outcomes of the research and elaborated together with representatives of relevant actors based in the selected countries.

How to cite: Redigonda, G., Bersegol, L., Francis, J., Rochard, S., and Corbett, L.: The role of space for Climate Resilience: a focus on the Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-125, 2024.

The Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula covers a total of 1,609 km of coastline between the Spanish-French border and Gibraltar and is an area with increasing impacts related with extreme meteorological phenomena, but also linked to the socio-economic characteristics of the areas affected. It is an area with a high concentration of economic activities, especially tourism. On the other hand, this zone contains areas of high ecosystem value. All this means that natural hazards can cause more serious damage, both socio-economic and environmental. Understanding the compounding threats of floods, sea storms and other hydro-meteorological events in the Mediterranean is crucial in the context of climate change and has serious implications for coastal resilience.

This study examines the socio-economic impacts of compound events of floods, wind and sea storms on coastal communities. First, this communication presents the process of identifying these events carried out in the framework of C3Riskmed project, including the role of new sources of information such as citizen science, social networks or historical landmarks. The economic impact of these events has been analysed using the Insurance Compensation Consortium (CCS). The analysis of remarkability, which was assessed using a remarkability criterion that integrates physical and socio-economic variables, is also presented. To finish, an analysis of the similarities and differences in the impact of these different events (in terms of economic impact, fatalities or damage to selected natural areas) will be included.

This research has been done in the framework of the C3Riskmed project, Grant PID2020-113638RB-C22 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033.

How to cite: Llasat-Botija, M., Llasat, M. C., Marcos-Matamoros, R., and Castán, S.: Analysis and comparison of the impact of floods and compound flood events on the Spanish Peninsular Mediterranean coast, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-52, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-52, 2024.

This research investigates the assessment of structural stability risks in buildings during natural disasters, with a particular focus on earthquakes, within historical centers. The objective is to create an accessible platform that can predictively create damage maps for blocks of buildings and large structures, enabling the prediction of damage and its impact on Cultural Heritage (CH) stability. The project seeks to generate risk maps for CH, emphasizing predictive damage mapping before natural disaster events occur under a variety of event scenarios. Methodologies have been devised to discern efficient and automated tools for harmonizing data, criteria, and indicators, thereby monitoring the influence of environmental changes on CH assets, encompassing structural stability and deterioration processes. This involves the integration of ground data (e.g., geotechnical and geological information), site-scale monitoring, satellite data (InSAR), and risk forecasting models (seismic models) to produce user-driven products like deformation maps, vulnerability assessments, and damage maps. Using AI-assisted models, the platform aims to enable ongoing inspection and monitoring of Cultural Heritage (CH) buildings for updating the vulnerability assessment.

How to cite: Schetakis, N., Papoutsakis, N., Manataki, M., Papadopoulos, N., Stavroulakis, G. E., and Di Iorio, A.: Leveraging AI for Automated Structural Stability Risk Assessment in Historical Centers, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-27, 2024.

In a landscape where Climate Change induced threats intensify and entire regions are endangered, the hazards posed to Cultural Heritage sites increase. These include sea level rising, rotation of extreme weather events and environmental degradation, which significantly jeopardize the protection and preservation of these sites.

TRIQUETRA aims to tackle these issues through accomplishing a series of strategic objectives such as developing a comprehensive repository of knowledge about the impacts of Climate Change on Cultural Heritage, while also using cutting-edge technologies for precise and effective risk quantification.

The TRIQUETRA EU research project is focused on developing an evidence-based assessment platform that serves as a Decision Support System for risk assessment. This platform is designed to improve the effectiveness of risk mitigation and site remediation activities. Overall, the strategy followed within the TRIQUETRA project is structured around three key elements: (i) Risk Identification, (ii) Risk Quantification and (iii) Risk Mitigation.

To validate these approaches, TRIQUETRA is implemented in eight different CH sties across Europe, five of which are located in the broad Mediterranean region, such as Choirokoitia in Cyprus, Aegina, Epidaurus and Kalapodi in Greece and Ventotene in Italy.

Key outcomes of the project include a novel risk quantification framework, an enhanced knowledge base platform, a decision support system equipped with tools for assessing risk severity, selecting and optimizing mitigation measures, new protective materials, an innovative flash LiDAR system, water quality analysers and a framework for digitising CH sites.

How to cite: Anastasiou, A., Ioannidis, C., Spyrakos, C., Verykokou, S., Istrati, D., Sarris, A., Martino, S., Themistocleous, K., Hadjimitsis, D., Feidas, H., Zanis, P., Tokmakidis, K., Bilis, T., Spyropoulou, S., Kounnou, C., Georgiadis, P., and Charalampopoulou, V. (.: TRIQUETRA project: The Mediterranean sites , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-48, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-48, 2024.

This paper presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing the vulnerability of cultural heritage sites in Greece to climate change. By proposing  a multi-criteria system that evaluates exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, the study aims to safeguard Greece's cultural capital and ensure the sustainability of its tourism industry. Utilizing climate model projections, the research identifies potential risks such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, fires, and sea level rise for selected UNESCO archaeological sites and assesses their vulnerability. The study leads to differentiated adaptation plans for every archaeological site based on the climate projections regarding the impacts of climate change and the specific characteristics of each site.

How to cite: Polydoros, A., Cartalis, C., Mavrakou, T., and Philippopoulos, K.: Assessing the risks of climate change for cultural heritage, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-86, 2024.

A changing climate significantly impacts the preservation of cultural heritage both outdoors and indoors. In the case of cultural collections preserved indoors, buildings play a key role in buffering the short-term outdoor climate fluctuations, being still heavily influenced by long-term outdoor climate trends. This makes indoor climate control challenging, especially when stable indoor temperature and relative humidity conditions should be kept preserving climate-vulnerable materials (e.g., polymeric-based materials). In the last decades, this approach is becoming increasingly unsustainable due to the extensive use of air conditioning systems, which contribute to the emission of greenhouse gases. This study examines the potential challenges in indoor climate control in the Mediterranean cinematographic archives -preserving cellulose acetate motion picture films- under the intermediate Shared Socio-economic Pathways climate scenario (SSP2-4.5). The analysis employs the "degree-days" index, using temperature thresholds recommended by standards to limit climate-induced degradation in cinematographic collections. The expected increase of the outdoor temperatures will be responsible for a significant increase in the cooling degree days with a different extent throughout Mediterranean countries. This will make more challenging the preservation of cinematographic collections as they are highly vulnerable to temperature greater that 15°C. These findings can support strategies to adapt to predicted warming by fine-tuning indoor climate control to preserve collections while enhancing energy efficiency. This may lead to the construction of new more-efficient cinematographic archives in climate resilient areas and to the development of new standards incorporating future climate projections and adaptation measures.

How to cite: Frasca, F., Vergelli, L., Bertolin, C., and Siani, A. M.: The impact of changing climate on the preservation of Mediterranean cinematographic archives, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-101, 2024.

The landscape, as a comprehensive entity encompassing diverse ecosystems, cultural values, aesthetic qualities, and geological features, is integral to the concept of natural heritage. Climate change poses a substantial threat to landscapes. The impacts are multifaceted, affecting not only the ecological integrity of these areas but also their cultural significance and the livelihoods of people who depend on them. Efforts to mitigate climate change and adapt to its effects are crucial to preserving valuable landscapes for future generations.

TOPIO project aims to contribute to addressing these issues by developing a holistic methodology where Citizen Science, Policy Outreach, Artificial Intelligence and Public Participatory GIS approaches, with the aid of Earth Observation, Digital Twins and Geoinformatics, will find common ground in order to involve both scientists and citizens in a “bottom-up” participatory and creative initiative for the implementation of the European Landscape Convention (ELC) in different areas of Europe. In this framework, TOPIO will prepare a landscape guide inspired by the ELC, initially focused on seven study areas across Europe. The identified topics will address urgent issues impacting the evolution of landscapes, focusing, among others, on climate change mitigation and adaptation.

A Landscape Character Assessment (LCA) covering the study areas will also be conducted based on public participation. The aim is to increase citizen awareness of landscape policies and involve society in safeguarding landscape heritage from the impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the LCA can serve as a tool for local and regional authorities to assess and manage climate-related risks.

How to cite: Alexakis, D., Lampropoulos, G., Eetvelde, V. V., Ramos, I. L., Prados Velasco, M. J., Charalampopoulou, B. (., Tzortzi, N., Cambria, V. E., Sykas, D., Georgiadis, C., Martins, R., Mussachio, C., Papadima, A., Cuccaro, V., and Spyropoulos, A.: TOPIO project: Safeguarding the landscape heritage from climate change impact through Landscape Character Assessment and Public Participation, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-130, 2024.

Protecting cultural heritage from the impacts of climate-related risks requires the development of adaptive strategies that take note of (a)  the climate hazards (forest fires, droughts, floods, heat waves, sea level rise) that are associated to the landscape where an archaeological site/monument is located (b) the strong variation in climate vulnerability by location (c)  the socio-economic changes that may impact the communities which support the conservation of cultural heritage and (d) local knowledge and traditions. The paper presents a novel methodology based on the interplay of "exposure-sensitivity-vulnerability-risk" for strengtening resilience of cultural heritage to the impacts of climate change; the methodology is based on such parameters as exposure, sensitivity and vulnerability, it considers landscape characteristics, takes note of climate estimates for the future climate period and finally delivers site dependent adaptation plans to climate change. The methodology is rolled out in the framework of the policy of the Hellenic Ministry of Culture for the protection of archaeological sites from the impacts of climate change. The methodology as well as results for selected archaeological sites will be presented along with a discussion on the environmental, social and governance criteria for the implementation of the adaptation plans. 

How to cite: Cartalis, C., Kountouri, E., Zoumpaki, S., Kotroni, V., Benissi, K., Lekkas, E., Lagouvardos, K., Spyropoulou, S., Kokkoni, M., Polydoros, A., and Giannaros, T.: A novel methodology for strengthening resilience of cultural heritage to the impacts of climate change - application for archaeological sites and monuments in Greece, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-138, 2024.

The present research illustrates the methodological approach and the results achieved so far concerning the risk assessment of cultural heritage towards climate change impact in the framework of the “Extraordinary National plan for monitoring and conservation of Italian cultural heritage”. This initiative, coordinated by the Italian Ministry of Culture - General Directorate for the Safety of Cultural Heritage, aims at the safeguarding of cultural and natural heritage from diverse natural and human-made hazard, including climate-induced extreme events (heavy rain, floods and drought). 
The methodological approach implemented foresees:
- Identification of climate and pollution parameters with priority in causing impacts on cultural heritage.
- Selection and application of appropriate damage functions and climate extreme indices.
- Development of projections of hazard at territorial level by using regional and climate models from the EURO-CORDEX experiment.
- Hazard analysis by exploiting the Copernicus services CAMS (Atmosphere Monitoring) and C3S (Climate Change) and purposely elaborated data form air quality monitoring stations. 
- Application of the methodology for vulnerability assessment of cultural and natural heritage set up in the framework of the Interreg Central EU Project STRENCH.
- Testing and validation of the methods and approaches at selected Italian case studies, among them the historic center of Florence and the terraced landscape in the Archipelago of Aeolian Islands. 
- Integration of the obtained data and results in the existing territorial information systems and repositories of the Ministry (e.g. Carta del Rischio and SecurArt projects).
The final aim of the research is to support the Public Authorities at National and local level in the management of cultural heritage at risk, by also supporting them in putting forward recommendations for the integration of measures dedicated of the protection of cultural heritage in the national plans of disaster risk reduction and climate change mitigation.

How to cite: Sardella, A., Canesi, L., Calidonna, C. R., Cattani, E., Camuffo, D., Cacace, C., Iannelli, P., and Bonazza, A.: Risk assessment of Italian cultural and natural heritage in a climate change environment, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-103, 2024.

The Mediterranean region is considered a “Hot Spot” susceptible to the threat of climate change. Many regions are prone to desertification, reduced water and change of rainfall pattern, loss of fertile soil, and degradation of the ecological services provided. Using the Jordan Valley as a test case, the overall objective of the new EcoFuture project, funded by the PRIMA programme (under GA number 2243), is to develop a climate-change adaptation plan oriented towards improving the socio-economic welfare for people in the Mediterranean region based on Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus methodologies. The project builds on the research and innovation capacities of partners and local stakeholders in order to: 1) Propose a climate change adaptation plan for the Jordan Valley region, based on existing and emerging technologies, taking into account the social and economic priorities of the three involved jurisdictions (Jordan, Israel and Palestine); 2) Use techno-economic models to optimise the sustainable efficiency (economic, society and environment) performance of the Plan; 3) Use socio-economic models to assess and recommend policies in the WEFE context to improve the welfare of people in the region; 4) Perform tests in three demonstration sites in the Jordan Valley, one in each country, in order to validate the inputs to the various models; 5) Propose methodologies to extend the applicability of the results of the Jordan Valley to other regions and to other Mediterranean countries; 6) Build synergies across sectors to investigate interlinkages across the nexus; 7) Implement capacity building and training programs in response to project findings.

EcoFuture is designed to accomplish the objectives of the project in 3 phases:

• Data Collection Phase – The phase involves the collection of current and future WEFE resources data, Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) alternatives, Socio-ecological data and Governance data.
• Knowledge Creation Phase – The data collected in the first phase are analyzed using various methodologies, tools and models. This will be achieved through the development of Casual-Loop Diagrams (CLD), WEFE alternatives, Multi-criteria analysis of the selection of the optimal WEFE alternative, Hydrologic analysis of the area, Water allocation analysis, Energy Analysis, Ecosystem and Climate change assessment.
• Synthesis and Proposals Phase – This phase involved a techno-economical analysis and a foresight analysis that will be the basis for the development of a regional Strategic Plan that will assure Water security, Energy security and Food security while accounting for the impacts of climate change.

At the same time, Living Labs will take place in each territory with stakeholders that are relevant to the WEFE Nexus in order to co-design the pilot demonstration that will take place in each territory. These pilots will be the basis for capacity building and training programs for the local stakeholders.

How to cite: Nikolaidis, N., Lilli, M., Wald, S., Lehrer, D., Albalawneh, A., Jayyousi, A., Kan, I., Halasah, S., Zemah-Shamir, S., and Attili, S.: Climate-change adaptation plan in the Mediterranean region , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-10, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-10, 2024.

The agricultural sector heavily relies on weather forecasts for informed decision-making. However, existing forecasting methods often lack localized precision, leading to significant uncertainties in predicting extreme weather events crucial for agricultural planning and management. The MAGDA H2020 project aims to address these challenges by developing a modular system deployed to farms, integrating observations from European space-based and ground-based assets to enhance tailored weather forecasts. This project represents a significant advancement by synergizing spaceborne, airborne, and ground-based measurement technologies, including GNSS and meteodrones observations, with meteorological models to benefit agriculture and water management operations. The project targets improvements in weather forecast accuracy, particularly concerning severe weather events like heavy rain, hail, windstorms. Inaccurate predictions of these events can lead to substantial crop damage, over-irrigation, or water shortages. Key challenges in Numerical Weather Models (NWM) stem from uncertainties in initial atmospheric conditions at small scales, necessitating enhanced observational data for improved model performance. Recent advancements in forecasting heavy rainfall events through data assimilation techniques show promising results. Studies have demonstrated the positive impact of integrating reflectivity data and in situ observations into meteorological models for predicting severe weather phenomena in various regions. Additionally, experiments incorporating Sentinel-derived and GNSS-derived products into high-resolution NWM have shown positive outcomes, particularly in predicting convective processes. The MAGDA project employs a cloud resolving modeling approach with a grid spacing of 2-3 km, coupled with rapid update cycles every 1-3 hours, to address uncertainties in weather prediction. The assimilation process integrates GNSS data to monitor integrated water vapor content, weather radar reflectivity to reconstruct the 3D cloud field, in situ weather stations for capturing near-surface atmospheric conditions, and meteodrones observations to collect information about the vertical profiles. By leveraging a combination of advanced technologies and data assimilation techniques, the project aims to enhance the accuracy and usefulness of weather forecasts tailored for agriculture and water management applications. The weather forecasts will be used as an input for the irrigation advisory, next to being used for generating warnings for extreme weather events. The warnings and irrigation advisories will ultimately be channeled through a Farm Management System to ensure the capability to effectively reach farmers and agricultural operators. 

How to cite: Lagasio, M., Milelli, M., Oberto, E., Uboldi, F., Orensanz, J., Piot, M., Burcea, S., Chitu, Z., Verschuren, L., Fernández Rodriguez, A., Validi, A., Haskovic, D., Gatti, A., Fumagalli, A., and Realini, E.: Enhancing weather forecast accuracy for agricultural operations: The MAGDA Project approach., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-30, 2024.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2023 has projected an increase in temperatures across the Mediterranean basin in the coming years, alongside a persistent challenge of water scarcity. This forecast suggests a heightened probability of intensified and more frequent extreme climatic events, particularly droughts. Meteorological drought plays a pivotal role in influencing different forms of drought, highlighting the importance of understanding its spatiotemporal patterns at the basin level. Such an understanding holds significant implications for ensuring ecological sustainability and water resource management security. The present work aims to assess the spatial variability and the trends of the annual rainfall and meteorological drought in the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin (TEB) utilising measured and remote sensing data, which spans from January 1975 to December 2022 (a 47-year period). Drought assessment took place based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for a 12-month timescale. We employed the 12-month SPI as the foundation for detecting drought occurrences. This timeframe offers a compromise between short- and long-term drought events, thus accurately capturing the influence of climate change on vital water resources like river flow. The findings offer valuable insights into the attributes and underlying mechanisms of meteorological droughts across the basin.

How to cite: Mohammad, H., Peli, M., and Barontini, S.: Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought Events in The Euphrates-Tigris Basin during 1975–2022, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-33, 2024.

Drought is commonly perceived as a natural hazard that evolves gradually. However, the recent increase in both the onset rate and severity of these events has drawn significant attention [1]. Both climate change and human activities contribute to the alteration of drought characteristics, affecting their development speed and intensity. For instance, climate change may indirectly influence droughts through alterations in the amount and distribution of precipitation and evapotranspiration, whereas human activities like land management can directly impact soil water content. This study employs the ISIMIP Global Water models [2, 3], driven by the hypothetical stationary ISIMIP3a climate dataset without climate change, and transient land use changes based on empirical observations [4]. We utilize soil moisture as an indicator of water deficit and a method to calculate the hydrological drought propagation speed to delineate drought characteristics. We contrast these results with those from historical simulations that include climate-related forcings based on empirical data to assess the historical long-term changes attributed to climate change. Our findings indicate that climate change significantly affects the development speed and intensity of droughts. Regions such as the rainforests of South America, Europe, and Southern Australia are identified as hotspots of more aggressive droughts, whereas areas like the East African mountains might experience milder droughts due to climate change. These variations could critically affect agricultural productivity, ecosystem health, and water availability for human consumption. The potential future acceleration of droughts underscores the importance of enhancing risk management and challenges existing drought hazard prediction research and practice.

1. Tramblay, Y., Koutroulis, A., Samaniego, L., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Volaire, F., Boone, A., ... & Polcher, J. (2020). Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios. Earth-Science Reviews, 210, 103348. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348

2. Telteu, C. E., Müller Schmied, H., Thiery, W., Leng, G., Burek, P., Liu, X., ... & Herz, F. (2021). Understanding each other's models: A standard representation of global water models to support improvement, intercomparison, and communication. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 2021, 1-56. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021

3. Müller Schmied, H., Gosling, S. N., Garnsworthy, M., Müller, L., Telteu, C.-E., … & Yokohata, T. (2024). Graphical representation of global water models, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1303, 2024

4. Frieler, K., Volkholz, J., Lange, S., Schewe, J., Mengel, M., Rivas López, M. D. R., ... & Bechtold, M. (2023). Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). EGUsphere, 2023, 1-83. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024

How to cite: Koutroulis, A., Grillakis, M., Gosling, S., Schmied, H. M., Burek, P., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Qi, W., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Tsanis, I., Stein, L., and Thiery, W.: Examining the contribution of climate change on global soil moisture drought characteristics, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-46, 2024.

Soil moisture is a key hydrologic state variable driving the exchange of water and heat energy between the land surface and the atmosphere through evaporation and plant transpiration, regulating surface temperature, humidity and potentially affect precipitation though recycling processes. Soil moisture is a fundamental element of the surface water budget, determining the health or stress on land surface ecosystems and managed systems such as agriculture and agroforestry. The surface water budget, and therefore soil moisture, depends on precipitation, irrigation (when present), soil infiltration, surface runoff, baseflow, and evapotranspiration. Furthermore, soil moisture-based indices are used as indicators of agricultural droughts, and soil moisture drought is one of the preconditioning effects for the development of extreme temperatures, influenced by atmospheric dynamics.

Climate change poses a major threat to all Mediterranean countries due to the combination of significant reductions in precipitation, increases in temperature, and the higher frequency of climate extremes, especially driving water scarcity and related multi-sectoral impacts. Most Mediterranean countries already endure higher frequencies of droughts and deficits in soil moisture and water storage. In this study, future projections of soil moisture are examined using a multi-model EURO-CORDEX regional climate ensemble, in agreement with three future emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). The drivers of future soil moisture dynamics are also analysed along with their effects on relative humidity and evaporation rates.

As expected, the projections show a clear reduction of soil moisture throughout the entire annual cycle, in response to a significant decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature, leading to a substantial rise in potential evapotranspiration. The overall total soil moisture decreases ranges from -5% for the RCP2.6 to -20% (-10%) for the RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), w.r.t. the present climate. Projections reveal that for the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) for the mid-century soil moisture deficits up to 5x (6x) are projected to occur, and for the end-of-century even 7x for the RCP8.5. The annual cycle of soil moisture, both in the present and future climate, is determined by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and deficit is both enhanced and covers a wider monthly window in the future, especially for the RCP8.5.

This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020
(https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020  (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020
(https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). This work was performed under the scope of project https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC (DHEFEUS) and supported by national funds through FCT. DL and AR acknowledge FCT I.P./MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) for the FCT https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.03183.CEECIND/CP1715/CT0004 and https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006, respectively. 

How to cite: Lima, D. C. A., Bento, V. A., Russo, A., and Soares, P. M. M.: The extreme future of soil moisture over the Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-80, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-80, 2024.

Predicting and preparing for changes in agricultural ecosystems is crucial in an era of rapid global warming. Climate model projections are the only tool we have in assessing the risks for the global food system and they provide some foresight for decision-makers as they develop their adaptation and mitigation strategies. One big challenge in the development of these projections is that we can only evaluate them at the time of their validity, i.e., in many decades from now. However, some knowledge can be gained by assessing the vulnerability of certain crops to anomalous weather and climate conditions at shorter time scales as well. In this work, we analyze past ensemble seasonal forecasts (1 to 6 months lead time) from several weather centres across the world and evaluate their performance based on reanalysis data. The ultimate goal is to assess the impact of uncertainty and biases in seasonal weather forecasts on crop yields, with a focus on the wheat and corn production of southeastern Europe. This will be achieved through the collective efforts of meteorologists, climatologists, and agronomists in the Augures project. Apart from its applicability on an operational seasonal prediction basis, assessing the strengths and limitations of probabilistic crop yield forecasting offers valuable insights for the usability of agricultural projections at longer time horizons.

How to cite: Fragkoulidis, G., Kotroni, V., and Lagouvardos, K.: Evaluation of seasonal weather forecasts for agriculture applications in southeastern Europe, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-133, 2024.

Precipitation and drought conditions play a key role in agriculture, so the regional and local adaptation strategies for the coming decades need information on how these climatic conditions tend to change due to global warming. For this purpose, the results of regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative are analyzed to estimate the possible future trends until the end of the 21st century. In order to take into account the uncertainty arising from the anthropogenic factors (e.g. greenhouse gas emissions, land use changes, population), three different RCP scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are taken into consideration representing immediate mitigation, mitigation from 2040, and business-as-usual future pathways, respectively. The study analyzes the changes in seasonal precipitation, seasonal number of dry days, and seasonal maximum of consecutive dry days by mid-century (2041-2060) and late-century (2081-2100) relative to the reference period (2001-2020) in Southeastern Europe, i.e. a major Mediterranean region between the Adriatic and the Black Sea. The difference between the RCM simulations enables us (i) to assess the uncertainty of the projections, and (ii) to identify robust likely changes in the region. Thus, stakeholders and decision-makers are provided with relevant information for future planning.

Acknowledgements: Research leading to this study has been supported by the European Climate Fund (G-2309-66801), the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Fund (K-129162), and the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014).

How to cite: Pongrácz, R. and Szabó, P.: Projection of seasonal precipitation conditions and dry days in Southeastern Europe, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-134, 2024.

The Eastern Mediterranean is a unique region for air pollution because it is the crossroads between three continents exchanging air pollution transported between Africa, Asia, and Europe. Here, we investigated urban particulate matter (PM) carbonaceous and water-soluble ions for eleven months in Amman, Jordan. The PM_2.5 total carbon (TC) annual mean was 7.6±3.6 µg/m³ (organic carbon (OC) 5.9±2.8 µg/m³ and elemental carbon (EC) 1.7±1.1 µg/m³), which was about 16.3% of the PM_2.5. The PM₁₀ TC annual mean was 8.4±3.9 µg/m³ (OC 6.5 ± 3.1 µg/m³ and elemental carbon (EC) 11.9±1.1µg/m³), about 13.3% of the PM₁₀. The PM_2.5 total water-soluble ions (TI) annual mean was 7.9±1.9 µg/m³(about 16.9%), and that of the PM₁₀ was 10.1±2.8 µg/m³ (about 16.0%). The minor ions (F^-, NO₂^-, Br^-, and PO₄^3-) constituted less than 1% in the PM fractions. The significant fraction was for SO₄^2- (PM_2.5 4.7±1.6 µg/m³ (10.0%) and PM₁₀ 5.3±1.9 µg/m³ (8.3%)). The NH₄⁺ had higher amounts of PM_2.5 (1.3±0.6 µg/m3; 2.7%) than that PM₁₀ (0.9±0.4 µg/m³; 1.4%). During sand and dust storm (SDS) events, TC, Cl^-, and NO₃^- were doubled in both PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, SO₄^2- did not increase significantly, and NH₄⁺ slightly decreased. Regression analysis revealed: (1) carbonaceous aerosols in Amman come equally from primary and secondary sources, (2) about 50% of the OC came from non-combustion sources, (3) traffic emissions dominate the PM, (4) agricultural sources have a negligible effect, (5)  SO₄^2- is completely neutralized by NH₄⁺ in the PM_2.5 but there could be additional reactions involved in the PM₁₀, and (6) (NH₄)₂SO₄, was the major species formed by SO₄^2-and NH₄⁺ instead of NH₄HSO₄.

How to cite: Al-Hunaiti, A., Bakri, Z., Li, X., Duan, L., Al-Abdallat, A., Alastuey, A., Viana, M., Arar, S., Petäjä, T., and Hussein, T.: Characterization of Water-Soluble Inorganic Ions and Carbonaceous Aerosols in the Urban Atmosphere in Amman, Jordan, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-142, 2024.

Recently, there has been increasing attention on the complex interactions among environmental and climatic stressors, including heatwaves, droughts, and poor air quality or fires, which are intensified by climate change. These stressors, classically considered individually, are now understood to be interconnected phenomena with far-reaching global impacts. Moreover, the cumulative effects of these events have often higher impacts than isolated events, with far-reaching consequences for ecosystems, economies, and public health on a global scale. This study provides a detailed examination of compound events involving heatwaves, droughts, fires, and poor air quality worldwide, elucidating their interconnected nature, triggering drivers, and consequences for ecosystems and societies.

To conduct this analysis, meteorological data from ERA5 were utilized to identify droughts using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and heatwaves, while Fire Radiative Power (FRP) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Terra and Aqua satellites was selected, along with air quality data (specifically particulate matter PM2.5) obtained from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global reanalysis (EAC4). Compound events were identified based on the detection of pollution events, heatwaves, droughts, or FRP occurring in various combinations.

The analysis revealed hotspots of compound events concentrated in different regions worldwide. For example, instances of pollution and heatwaves were predominantly observed in India, the Arabian Peninsula, and eastern China, while heatwaves and fires were more common in the Brazilian Cerrado, northern Australia, and South African Savannas. The Mediterranean region is particularly affected by hot and dry events, whereas Greece, Portugal, and Italy are those more affected by the compound of hot, dry, fire and pollution hazards. The impacts of single and simultaneous occurrences of hot, dry, and fire events on particulate matter PM2.5 levels varied significantly by continent, with North America and Asia experiencing notably higher pollution levels during simultaneous events compared to isolated pollution events.

The intersection of compound hot and dry events with wildfires presents a significant public health challenge, highlighting the interrelation of climate change, extreme weather events, and air pollution. Addressing these complex relationships requires comprehensive strategies that integrate climate resilience, wildfire management, and air quality regulations to protect human health and well-being in the face of a changing climate.

This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). This work was performed under the scope of project https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC (DHEFEUS) and supported by national funds through FCT. DL and AR acknowledge FCT I.P./MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) for the FCT https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.03183.CEECIND/CP1715/CT0004 and https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006, respectively.

How to cite: Bento, V. A., Lima, D. C. A., Careto, J. A., and Russo, A.: Global Compound Events Interplay: Impacts on Fires and Air Pollution, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-56, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-56, 2024.

Air pollution has significant and severe impacts on human health, the environment, materials, and the economy, emerging as a key issue for microclimate and air quality regulation. Hence, the spatial and temporal characterization of air pollutants and their relationship with meteorological constraining factors is of utmost importance, particularly under a climate change perspective. Air pollutants’ spatial and temporal characterization over the Iberian Peninsula is performed, focusing particularly on the emissions of Particulate Matter (PM) and Carbon Monoxide (CM) during wildfire events in 2012-2023. This will be performed based on the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring (CAMS) data, to profit from the added value of having reliable and gridded information on the atmosphere composition and its related processes, anywhere in the world. After a preliminary analysis, air quality (AQ) forecasts are produced to model AQ environmental emergencies. The rationale is to develop a methodology to forecast air pollutants' exceedances, without being limited to areas closer to monitoring AQ stations. To achieve this goal, Machine Learning (ML) methods are applied to find the most efficient model architecture predicting pollutants’ concentration a few days ahead.

Space-time patterns reveal a good agreement between CAMS data and extreme fire events, with this agreement being clearer for maximum concentrations measured by CAMS pollutants such as CO, PM10, and PM2.5, as well as the exceedances of pollutant thresholds during fire activity periods, over affected regions. ML models reveal coefficient of determination (R) values ranging from 0.76 to 0.85 for their forecasts, revealing high accuracy in predicting PM10 exceedances, with precision levels up to 0.91.

Model results reveal the potential to develop an air quality tool over regions less covered by the national air quality monitoring network.

Acknowledgements: This study is partially supported by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES on behalf of DHEFEUS -2022.09185.PTDC and the project FAIR- 2022.01660.PTDC).

How to cite: Durao, R., Gouveia, C., Simões, M., Brito, A., and Russo, A.: Space-time characterization of fire-related air pollutants over Portugal., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-89, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-89, 2024.

Air quality across Europe has generally improved in recent decades due to stricter regulations. However, the European Environment Agency (EEA) also highlight that the number of premature deaths in Europe due to air pollution is still far too high. Moreover, the impacts of wildfire smoke, often coupled with the combined effects of droughts and heatwaves in the region, are often disregarded. With the projected rise in wildfires due to climate change, wildfire smoke's contribution to air quality degradation in the Mediterranean is likely to grow in the coming years.

This study focuses on the Mediterranean region, relying on air quality data (specifically particulate matter PM2.5) obtained from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) European reanalysis from 2013 to 2023 at 0.1º resolution to assess the impact of wildfire smoke on PM2.5 concentrations. Additionally, meteorological data from ERA5 were utilized to identify heatwaves and droughts (as depicted by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). Our findings suggest that wildfire smoke has substantially influenced PM2.5 trends across the Mediterranean. This influence could be eroding past air quality improvements, potentially equivalent to several years of progress lost.

The intersection of wildfire pollution and extreme events presents a critical public health challenge, highlighting the need to address these complex relationships when developing comprehensive strategies and regulations to protect human health and well-being in the context of a changing climate.

This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). This work was performed under the scope of project https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC (DHEFEUS) and supported by national funds through FCT. DL and AR acknowledge FCT I.P./MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) for the FCT https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.03183.CEECIND/CP1715/CT0004 and https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006, respectively.

How to cite: Russo, A., A. Bento, V., Brito, A., C.A. Lima, D., A.M. Careto, J., and Durão, R.: The contribution of wildfires to PM2.5 trends in the Mediterranean and their relation to national-level extreme events, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-85, 2024.

Over the past two decades, the Mediterranean region has experienced a rapid increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of temperature-related extremes. These conditions have led to a rise in heat stress, posing serious threats to human health, especially when combined with high levels of humidity in the atmosphere. These impacts are particularly concerning for vulnerable population groups, such as seniors, who are more susceptible to the adverse effects of extreme moist heat. Investigating the effects of moist heat on mortality is essential for comprehending the broader impacts of climate change. Such research is critical for identifying how rising temperatures in conjunction with humidity extremes affect human health, enabling thus better preparation and response strategies to mitigate these adverse effects.

In this direction, several studies employ humidity metrics, such as relative humidity and wet bulb temperature, to explore their relationship with epidemiological data. However, the results often remain inconclusive. The inverse relationship between temperature and relative humidity can obscure the impact of temperature on health outcomes, leading to ambiguous results in assessing heat-health exposure. To overcome these limitations, in this study, we concentrate on Cyprus, a Mediterranean island, and explore the relationship between temperatures and vapour pressure in conjunction with mortality data.

The meteorological data were initially derived from a high spatial resolution (5.5km x 5.5km) reanalysis, namely the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (CERRA), at hourly temporal resolution. Subsequently, they were aggregated across the five districts of Cyprus. Daily mortality counts, including deaths attributed to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases (ICD10 codes: I00-I99 and J00-J99), were analyzed over a nearly two-decade period (2004-2019). Distributed Lag non-Linear models (DLNMs) within the general framework of Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) were applied to the five districts of Cyprus. This modelling framework produces estimates of the temporally distributed combined effect of temperature and vapour pressure on mortality rate.

We demonstrate how the health risks vary across the elderly population in Cyprus, specifically focusing on individuals aged over 65 years, aggregated without gender distinction. Our findings suggest that there is a significant link between environmental conditions and the mortality rate of individuals aged 65 and above, a group that has been repeatedly identified as highly vulnerable. The combined effect of high temperatures and vapour pressure levels significantly increases the health risk attributed to elderly groups, in agreement with thermo-physiological evidence.

How to cite: Tzyrkalli, A., Giannaros, C., and Economou, T.: Influence of humidity and temperature on mortality in the Mediterranean, a case study for Cyprus, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-112, 2024.

Greater Cairo, the most populous megacity in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region, faces severe aerosol pollution, posing a significant threat to public health. Despite its impact, the main sources of pollution remain under-characterized due to sparse atmospheric observations. To address this gap, we conducted a continuous two-month field study at an urban background site, documenting the first chemical and physical properties of submicron aerosols (PM₁). We found that crustal material from both desert dust and traffic dust resuspension accounted for as much as 24% of the total PM₁ mass, increasing to 66% during desert dust events—a level unusually high for urban settings. Simultaneously, our data indicated reductions in black carbon and ammonium sulfate levels, suggesting successful emission reductions through local and regional mitigation efforts. The diurnal patterns of carbonaceous aerosols were linked to peak emissions from local traffic during rush hours and from open biomass burning at night. Contrarily, our analysis identified unexpectedly high levels of semi-volatile ammonium chloride (NH₄Cl) from local open biomass and waste burning, emerging as the predominant PM₁ chemical species in Cairo. Its formation at night significantly influenced morning aerosol water uptake, thereby playing a crucial role in the formation of persistent urban haze. These findings not only confirm the ongoing presence of a significant dust reservoir over Cairo but also reveal a new source of highly hygroscopic semi-volatile inorganic salts, leading to a unique type of urban haze. This haze, characterized by major contributions from both submicron and supermicron particle modes, highlights the complex implications of heterogeneous chemical transformations of air pollutants in urban settings, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary research to understand and mitigate these impacts in the Mediterranean and similar regions. Full details are available in our publication in Christodoulou et al., 2024.

Christodoulou, A., Bezantakos, S., Bourtsoukidis, E., Stavroulas, I., Pikridas, M., Oikonomou, K., Iakovides, M., Hassan, S. K., Boraiy, M., El-Nazer, M., Wheida, A., Abdelwahab, M., Sarda-Estève, R., Rigler, M., Biskos, G., Afif, C., Borbon, A., Vrekoussis, M., Mihalopoulos, N., Sauvage, S., and Sciare, J.: Submicron aerosol pollution in Greater Cairo (Egypt): A new type of urban haze?, Environ. Int., 186, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.108610, 2024.

How to cite: Christodoulou, A., Bezantakos, S., Bourtsoukidis, E., Stavroulas, I., Afif, C., Borbon, A., Vrekoussis, M., Mihalopoulos, N., Sauvage, S., and Sciare, J. and the POLCAIR Team and Partners: Submicron aerosol pollution in Greater Cairo (Egypt): A new type of urban haze?, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-82, 2024.

Southern European cities face increasing challenges from urban overheating and evolving climate hazards such as heatwaves and droughts. Vegetated parks can mitigate urban climate impacts, providing significant relief. This study, part of the EU Horizon project DISTENDER, assesses the urban heat island (UHI) effect and intra-urban thermal variations for Guimarães, Portugal, and Turin, Italy. First, thermal patterns and the cooling effects of green spaces during typical summer conditions and extreme heat and drought events were derived using remotely-sensed Land Surface Temperatures (LST) from Landsat 8/9 and MODIS Aqua/Terra satellites. Next, multi-year (1981 – 2049) high-resolution urban simulations, were conducted using the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS). These simulations were forced with statistically downscaled data from three climate models (CanESM5, EC-EARTH3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, 5-8.5). Results indicate that city centres are up to 4 °C hotter than surrounding natural areas. While UHI intensity is projected to remain relatively stable throughout the years, air temperatures are expected to rise by approximately 2.0 °C for Guimarães and 1.6 °C for Turin under the high emission scenario by the 2050s. These findings underscore the need for urban planning strategies to mitigate future heat risks in Southern European cities.

How to cite: Agathangelidis, I., Cartalis, C., Polydoros, A., Philippopoulos, K., and Koutroumanou-Kontosi, K.: Current Urban Thermal Characteristics and Future Projections in the Mediterranean Basin: Case Studies From Guimarães, Portugal, and Turin, Italy Using Remote Sensing and the SUEWS Model, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-78, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-78, 2024.

Heat-health action plans (HHAPs) aim at minimizing the negative impact of heat on human health. They follow a comprehensive approach that combines short-, medium- and long-term health prevention activities. Heat-health warning systems (HHWSs) constitute an integral part of HHAPs, providing alerts that target the initiation of autonomous (e.g. reduced physical activity) and coordinated (e.g. operation of cooling centers) intervention measures for health protection. The implementation of national and regional HHWS in Europe, but also worldwide, has proven to be successful in reducing heat-related mortality. Yet, further advancements, especially with respect to the warning protocol definition and the communication of warnings, are necessary to comprehensively characterize and deal with heat and its impact on human health. The current work provides insights in relation to these issues based on a prototype HHWS developed in the framework of the HEAT-ALARM research project. Employing Greece as a test bed, the HEAT-ALARM HHWS is operated under a pilot mode during the warm period (April-October) of 2024. The system provides human-biometeorological-based warnings along with recommendations for a health protective behavior for the next three days in 72 regional units (RUs) of the country and for six population subsets (men and women adults and seniors, as well as men and women working outdoors), based on: (i) the association of the forecasted daily maximum mPET (modified physiologically equivalent temperature) and relative mortality risk, accounting for short-term acclimatization effects, and (ii) the forecasted nighttime temperatures, accounting for urban effects in those RUs encompassing the cities of Athens and Thessaloniki, which together accommodate almost one fourth of the total Greece population. Additional risk factors, such as the duration of mPET-based heat stress exposure, are provided as supplementary information, while the choice of the targeted populations aims at accounting for sex and age equity in heat prevention planning, as well as for the increased sensitivity of outdoor workforce to thermo-physiological heat stress. The meteorological data used in the above warning protocol are derived from high resolution (≤ 2 km) weather forecasting models at population-weighted spatial scales to better reflect the thermal environment experienced by the people in each RU. When it is necessary, all heat-health warning-related information is communicated directly to various stakeholders (e.g. Hellenic Red Cross) via automated e-mails, as well as internally with operational forecasters of the METEO Unit at the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), which operates a dedicated web page (www.meteo.gr) for issuing operational weather forecasts. The NOA/METEO website is visited by more than 350,000 visitors per day, ensuring thus the effective dissemination of the HEAT-ALARM heat-health warnings to end-users (e.g. construction workers) and/or their advocates (e.g. care facilities for the elderly), when needed.

How to cite: Galanaki, E., Giannaros, C., Agathangelidis, I., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., and Matzarakis, A.: Heat-health warning systems: Warning protocol definition and communication aspects, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-18, 2024.

Fine aerosol particles (PM2.5) in the mediterranean, urban area of Athens (Gr) during a contemporary year free of anthropogenic activity restrictions (2019) is the focus of this study. The numerical atmospheric model system used (WRF/ Episode-CityChem) can describe the local atmospheric conditions (in 1 km resolution), with additional features to represent the urban canyon pollutant dispersion and local photochemistry in the intra-urban scale (100 m resolution). An extensive evaluation of both models’ performance is assessed through comparisons with in situ measurements from multiple National networks, including the weather station network operated by the METEO unit, and the state-of-the-art air pollution equipment by the Ypatia unit at the National Observatory of Athens, as well as the air quality networks of Panacea-RI and of the Greek State. A multi-parametric comparison against measurements gave useful insights and opportunities for optimization of models’ setup. Indicatively, a series of single day meteorological runs would result in atmospheric (both meteorological and air quality) predictions of similar accuracy than the a sequence of 3-day simulations, saving substantial computational time and human effort. Further, a separate evaluation for precipitation-impacted periods was performed, indicating that both the rainy meteorological conditions and the wet deposition processes do not add deviations between aerosol predictions and observations. A similar calculation and finding are seen for African dust events, suggesting the satisfactory treatment of dust at the regional (CAMS) and local (dispersion of transboundary pollution) level in the southeastern Mediterranean. Deviations in air quality performance for day-night and summer-winter time periods, indicated pathways to optimize the configuration of the model system. Last, the study focuses on limited periods of heat when thermal discomfort is induced to the urban population. During such periods, health risk may become more severe due to high concentrations of PM2.5. The investigation of the differential model performance and aerosol load due to the selection of different urban parameterizations (WRF), is currently under study and will be presented during the conference.

How to cite: Athanasopoulou, E., Karagiannis, D., Papangelis, G., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., and Gerasopoulos, E.: Health-related atmospheric aerosol over an urban hotspot in the Mediterranean: model performance and insights for different urban parameterizations during heat stress periods, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-21, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-21, 2024.

In this study, we analyze weekly mortality series at the provincial level for all seasons of the year. Using an artificial intelligence model, we examine the importance of various meteorological and atmospheric pollution variables on the temporal variability of mortality. The variables analyzed include maximum and minimum temperatures (Aemet ROCIO 5km), concentrations of ozone, PM10, PM25, and NO2 (CAMS 10km) for both the concurrent week and the previous week. To obtain the provincial series, we developed a methodology that involves calculating the weighted average of all grid points within the province, weighted by the population of the covered area.

In summer, the results show that the artificial intelligence model can reasonably explain the variability in mortality in many Spanish provinces, especially in large cities such as Madrid and Barcelona, where the temporal correlations between predicted and observed values exceed 0.6. The minimum temperature is the most important variable in most provinces, followed by the maximum temperature for both the current and previous weeks. The results indicate that atmospheric pollution plays a significant role. However, there is considerable interprovincial variability. Analyzing extreme events reveals that, in most cases, temperature extremes coincide with atmospheric pollution episodes.

In winter, the most significant variable is the minimum temperature of the previous week in almost all provinces, with correlation indices above 0.5. Regarding extremes, we again find coincidences of several factors, especially at the beginning of major mortality episodes, with the most notable being high levels of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter.

We conclude that the proposed methodology is capable of reasonably explaining the temporal variability of mortality and that a significant portion of extreme mortality events have a composite nature (compound events), where the coincidence and succession of several factors seems to play a determining role.

How to cite: Montávez, J. P., Garnés-Morales, G., Tortosa, J., Gil-Guirado, S., García-Fernández, E., Cataldi, M., Segado-Moreno, L., Raluy, E., Gallardo, V., and JIménez-Guerrero, P.: Influence of Temperature and air Pollution on Provincial Mortality in Spain: A Seasonal AI Approach, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-49, 2024.

The effects of climate change are becoming more noticeable in communities around the world. These implications include altered weather patterns, changes in the dynamics of wildlife and flora, and variations in the quality, accessibility, and availability of water and food resources. In the foreseeable future, regional variations in how climate change affects air quality are also expected. It is anticipated that climate change will increase ground-level ozone concentrations, increase the number of individuals exposed to allergens such as pollen, and degrade air quality in numerous parts of the globe. It might also reduce visibility, which would make it difficult to see far away and interfere with mobility. Variations in the ambient concentrations of air contaminants can also affect indoor air quality.

A helpful tool for comprehending and characterizing global climate types is the Köppen-Geiger (KG) classification system. This work analyses the application of the KG classification system to the latest CMIP6 experiments. A baseline for the historical era 1970–2000 was established using the WorldClim dataset and an ensemble of 14 global climate models was used to evaluate future climate variability in Iberia, Greece, and Cyprus from 2041 to 2060. These projections are based on many scenarios of human-induced radiative forcing, and the novel Shared Socioeconomical Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.

The Iberian Peninsula and Cyprus are predicted to experience dramatic changes based on the results; temperate (C) and arid (B) regions should experience a significant shift from a moderate summer temperature (Csb) to a hot summer climate (Csa). The shift from BSk (semi-arid cold) to BSh (semi-arid hot), the loss of Cfb (tempered oceanic), and the rise in Csa (hot-summer Mediterranean) climate types are all expected to affect Greece's climate.

Since high temperatures can have a major impact on indoor air quality, a rise in ambient air pollutants, like particulate matter and ozone, may result in increased exposure indoors. Additionally, plants, trees, and crops can be harmed by air pollution. For example, plants exposed to elevated levels of ground-level ozone exhibit reduced photosynthetic activity, slower growth rates, and increased susceptibility to diseases. On the other hand, the frequency and duration of wildfires have increased due to climate change. Smoke from wildfires contaminates the air, reducing visibility and disrupting outdoor activities. It can also reach other areas hundreds of miles downwind. Respiratory conditions like bronchitis, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) might deteriorate when humans are exposed to smoke from wildfires. The growing urgency of the aforementioned hazards highlights the need for suitable policies and activities for climate change adaptation and mitigation, to counteract the anticipated adverse conditions.

Acknowledgments: This research was funded by National Funds by FCT ‒ Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020. This research was supported under the Breath IN Erasmus+ project 2023-1-PT01-KA220_HED-00153118.

How to cite: Andrade, C., Mourato, S., K. Paschalidοu, A., and Yamasaki, E.: Köppen-Geiger Climate Classifications in Iberia, Greece, and Cyprus under climate change projections with CMIP6 Experiments, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-35, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-35, 2024.

The great amount of field work required to collect vegetational data for the calculation of ecosystem services, often hinders the possibility to investigate other parameters involved. This pilot study faced this issue by (I) exploring the potential of open data to calculate the ecosystem services provided by the urban vegetation, in terms of air pollution removal; (II) reworking vegetational data and ecosystem services in a website accessible and comprehensible to the public; (III) integrating the results with measurements on the field.

To do so, the arboreal vegetation of the ring road around Bologna city centre was analysed using the software iTree-Eco. Vegetation data supplied to the software were either downloaded from the open data portal of the municipality, or calculated in QGIS on recent orthophotos. Hence, iTree estimated the potential air pollutant removal for each species. Eventually, those indicated by the software as the most efficient species were furtherly investigated with an empirical approach, evaluating their photosynthetic efficiency and leaf micromorphology as proxies for their capability to remove gaseous and particulate pollutants, respectively. These data were compared with plants of the same genera or species grown in a green area nearby (the Botanical Garden). While the photosynthetic efficiency, calculated as Fv/Fm, did not show any significant difference between the Botanical Garden and the roadside vegetation, the stomatal density of some species from the ring road resulted significantly higher (p-value<0.05) than those of the Botanical Garden, an unexpected result since stomatal density is thought to decrease with high CO2 levels and drought stress. Differences in trichome density and waxes texture between individuals from the two areas were investigated as well.

Summarising, this study demonstrated the potential of open data for the analysis and dissemination of the ecosystem services provided by the vegetation, and it suggested to implement algorithms that calculate the removal of air pollutants using micro-morphological parameters, as these are crucial factors in the pollution mitigation capabilities of urban trees.

How to cite: Aloisi, I., Montanari, M., Gherardi, S., Rodríguez-Fernández, A., Fernández-González, D., and Suanno, C.: From big data to micro morphology: an experimental approach to ecosystem services calculation , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-61, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-61, 2024.

Wildfires are a natural, reoccurring phenomenon in Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The Mediterranean region has recently been experiencing wildfires of increased intensity and magnitude, due to the combined effect of increased temperatures, prolonged drought conditions, as well as human activities. Under those circumstances, wildfire management and firefighting activities face significant challenges. Local authorities and firefighting agencies have been working on enhancing their strategies, resources allocation, and coordination to effectively manage those fires.

In this context, the TREEADS project funded by the EU Horizon 2020 Programme under the EU Green Deal call, adopts a holistic approach, proposing technological solutions that enhance our current abilities for the early detection of wildfires, as well as the timely response of the firefighting and fire management efforts. Under the project activities, those solutions are tested and validated on different pilot regions across Europe, tailored to the local stakeholder and community needs. Our pilot region, Samaria Gorge within the Samaria National Park, is one of the longest gorges in Europe and one of the most densely vegetated regions on the island of Crete, including extensive pine and cypress forests. In addition to highly flammable fuel, the Samaria gorge exhibits rough terrain and limited escape routes, posing a threat to its ~1000 daily visitors, in the case of a wildfire. This threat is intensified further as climate change unfolds in the region, bringing more frequent and prolonged heatwaves, combined with periods of prolonged drought. Our role is to coordinate and facilitate the communication among stakeholders and TREEADS technology partners, in order to test TREEADS technologies related to wildfire prevention and preparedness, and the timely detection, suppression, and evacuation of the Samaria gorge in the case that a wildfire event occurs.

How to cite: Grillakis, M., Arampatzis, G., Phillis, A., Manoudakis, S., and Voulgarakis, A.: Advancing Wildfire Management in Mediterranean: The TREEADS (H2020) project., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-36, 2024.

TITLE: INTEGRATED COMMAND SYSTEM FOR COMPLEX INCIDENTS AND LARGE FOREST FIRES

Abstract:

In the current European context, emergency responders are confronted with a complex landscape. Factors such as climate change, the unmanaged forest re-grow all across Europe, and the expansion of buildings into wildland areas have increased the complexity and severity of emergencies. Responders must manage a vast amount of information in a short time, making decision-making a challenging process.

The Incident Command Post, therefore, requires a standardized organizational system to optimize the effectiveness of actions, minimize uncertainty, and simplify the complex scenario for timely and safe decision-making.

Spain’s emergency management system has integrated aspects of the French doctrine of emergency management and the American Incident Command System. However, it has not fully adopted all aspects of these systems. Meanwhile, many Fire and Rescue Departments in Spain are increasingly applying the French System GOC (Operational Management and Command management mechanism).

This abstract proposes a system that integrates mechanisms from both the French and American models, along with other strategies, to address the identified shortcomings in managing complex incidents. Initially oriented towards the reality of emergencies in Valencia, the proposed system aims for broader application across Spain and potentially the European Union. This integrated command system seeks to improve the management of complex emergencies and large forest fires, contributing to more effective and efficient responses.

This system was initially presented as the final project for an ‘Advanced Course in Emergency Coordination and Civil Protection’ (Ciclo Superior de Coordinación de Emergencias y Protección Civil), demonstrating its practical application in the field of emergency management and civil protection. Now it is the author’s aim to spread it to a bigger international audience.

Author: Jesús Morcillo i Julià.

About the author:

Seasoned wildland firefighter with a career spanning over two decades. Demonstrated expertise in leading fire crews, coordinating operations, and managing complex wildfires. Proven commitment to team building and leadership, with a focus on training and instruction. Extensive travel for training and collaborations in various fields.

SGISE Bombers Forestals – Pau Costa Foundation – Consorci Provincial Bombers Castelló

How to cite: Morcillo i Julià, J.: Integrated Command System for Complex Incidents and Large Wildfires, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-43, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-43, 2024.

The 2018 Mati wildfire in Greece caused 104 fatalities, leading to national mourning and a change in Greek wildfire policy. Dry conditions, strong winds, and limited evacuation routes led to a late evacuation, with people trapped in the path of the wildfire. Evacuating from wildfires is crucial for saving lives, but timing and planning is key. Dire evacuations happen when there is no time to evacuate from a wildfire, but people attempt to do so, resulting in entrapment and loss of life. This presentation studies Mati using trigger boundaries,  to examine whether an evacuation with no casualties was possible. Trigger boundaries relate the required time to evacuate a community to the available time until a wildfire reaches the community. Analyzing past wildfires with trigger boundaries can help understand what went wrong and improve future evacuation strategies for at-risk communities.

How to cite: Kalogeropoulos, N., Mitchell, H., Kuligowski, E., Ronchi, E., and Rein, G.: Analyzing the chances of evacuation in the 2018 Mati Fire , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-32, 2024.

Recent destructive fire seasons around the world indicate the emergence of novel fire regimes, characterized by high-intensity burning and extreme fire behavior. While the contribution of individual factors can be debated, the scientific literature concludes that fire weather is one prominent driver of fire activity. Moreover, there is growing evidence that climate change is escalating the frequency, severity and extend of wildfires around the world. Simply put, wildfires are changing because we change the conditions in which they occur. Although the importance of weather to wildfire activity has been documented since the 1930s, there is still a lot of research effort in advancing our knowledge on the drivers and the processes that lead to the development of extreme fire weather and behavior. Here we investigate the synoptic and mesoscale fire weather dynamics associated with 9 extreme wildfires in Greece during the period from 2009—2022. We select wildfires that took place within this period to exploit the increased availability of surface weather data from the automatic weather stations network of the National Observatory of Athens as ground-truth for evaluating the numerical simulations and studying surface fire weather. The selection of the examined wildfires is based on the extremeness of satellite-derived daily growth rates of burnt area as well as the environmental and socio-economic impacts. To assess the fire weather dynamics associated with each event we conduct numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized with ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Our synoptic and mesoscale analysis of the WRF simulations illustrates the dominant atmospheric processes that drive fire weather conditions, such as the horizontal and vertical transport of dry, warm and high-momentum air. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates a distinct separation in atmospheric dynamics between the wind-driven and plume-dominated (i.e., wildfires that are accompanied by pyroconvection) wildfires. Finally, our work highlights the added value of high-resolution simulations to better simulate fire weather conditions in areas with complex topography such as Greece, and we discuss potential implications for fire weather forecasting.

Acknowledgments
This work has been supported financially by the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (H.F.R.I.) under the "2nd Call for H.F.R.I. Research Projects to support Post-Doctoral Researchers" (Project Number: 00559, Project Acronym: FLAME).

How to cite: Papavasileiou, G., Giannaros, T. M., Lagouvardos, K., and Koletsis, I.: Numerical analysis of synoptic and mesoscale fire weather dynamics of extreme wildfires in Greece, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-119, 2024.

Forest fires often exhibit complex and dynamic fire behaviour resulting from interactions between the various parts of a fire and the surrounding environment. These interactions can cause rapid fire progression and lead to loss of containment and critical fire safety problems. The effects of convective processes near the fireline induce a local wind flow and modified flame properties. The fire spread conditions along the fire perimeter are modified by the interaction between the fire, the flames, and the surrounding environment. It is observed that a quick-fire acceleration is followed by a deceleration of the fire front. We assimilate these phases to the eruptive process of a fire acceleration in a canyon and designate by disruptive the deceleration phase, respectively. The relevance of the convective flow induced by the fire in these processes is analysed in the present paper based on laboratory scale experiments.

To analyse the induced local wind flow, laboratory experiments were conducted at the Forest Fire Research Laboratory (LEIF) of the University of Coimbra in Lousã. It was considered Two different physical problems were considered: a point ignition fire in a slope (SP) and a point ignition fire in a canyon (DEP). The local flow velocity was measured with five S-pitot tubes 15cm above the ground. S-type pitot tubes allow the determination of the local flow velocity by measuring the differential pressure based on Bernoulli's equation. In SP tests the pitot tubes were placed along the centre line, in the middle of the fuel bed area, and in the DEP tests the pitot tubes were placed in the canyon water line.

To simplify the analysis, it was assumed that the flame is static at the position of the pitot tube. Using the average values of flow velocity every 5 seconds, the time of the passage of the flame at each pitot tube position was estimated from the curve of U'(t) when the flow velocity changed its signal from essentially positive to essentially negative values of U'. As the flow approaches the leeward side of the flame (negative values), the value of U'  increases to a maximum value and then decreases due to the flame acting like a solid, leading to a stagnation point. On the lee side of the flame, the flow velocity U' becomes negative and has a clearly defined minimum value. This local flow changes the properties of the flame (flame angle and flame length) and when the local wind flow on the lee side of the flame increases, the fire ROS decreases and the flame angle increase and a flow contrary to the fire spread appears.

How to cite: Ribeiro, C., Viegas, D., Rodrigues, T., and Barbosa, T.: Local Flow Velocity Measurements During the Eruptive and Disruptive Dynamic Fire Behaviour, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-104, 2024.

Portugal is a fire-prone country, due to climate conditions that drive high fuel availability. In the 21st century, several catastrophic fire seasons have occurred, with an extremely high total burned area and the loss of human lives. Extreme fire seasons typically occur under hot and dry conditions, such as 2003, 2005, and 2017, although wind is known to facilitate fire spread, as occurred in October of 2017 due to the Ophelia storm.

In this work, the bivariate relationship between Fire Radiative Power (FRP), daily temperature, and wind speed was assessed, using copula functions, which estimate the joint distribution of two variables. This method is specially suited to analyse extreme events, since it is possible to model asymmetrical relationships, namely tail dependences. FRP was retrieved from MODIS, with a spatial resolution of 1 km, and hourly temperature and hourly wind components were obtained from the ERA Land dataset, with a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Only the maximum FRP value occurring on each ERA Land grid point was used. Copula functions were fitted to FRP and the weather variables on the day of the fire and on the previous days, for the period 2001-2020. Conditional probabilities of FRP were then computed, given extreme values of temperature and wind intensity. Forests and shrublands are very prone to burn in Portugal, but since the fuel accumulation and availability is very different in these land covers, they were assessed separately.

The results show that extreme values of temperature and wind intensity increase the probability of high values of FRP, when compared to lower temperatures and weaker winds, and that the probability is higher for the case of temperature extremes.

Ackowledgements: This study was supported by FCT I.P./MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Portugal)  through national funds (PIDDAC):  UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020), “Fundos próprios para desenvolvimento de projetos de I&D” Project MEDCEX - reference: 100SPID8106.

How to cite: Páscoa, P., Pereira, S., de Zea Bermudez, P., and M. Gouveia, C.: The link between temperature and wind extremes with fire activity in Portugal in the 21st century, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-90, 2024.

Compound extremes are a very important problem that is observed in various areas. Whenever several hazards occur, jointly or in cascade, their independent extreme effects may not be very relevant, while their simultaneous impact(s) may be quite devastating. The occurrence of wildfires in Portugal is a major societal and environmental concern, which happens every year from June to October. The high temperatures which are observed in the late Spring/early Summer, associated with low values of humidity, in known to enhance the fire prone conditions. The association between high temperatures and wind speed is also believed to play a very important part in wildfire spreading although that has not really been established yet. Several recent  wildfires lead in that direction. For instance the event which occurred in Portugal in October 2017 when fires concurred with the winds associated to the passage of the Ophelia storm is such an example.

In this work, extreme value theory will be used to analyze the concurrent effect of temperature and windspeed on the severity of large wildfires in Portugal, measure by means of the frequency radiation power.

How to cite: De Zea Bermudez, P., Pereira, S., Pascoa, P., and M. Gouveia, C.: Compound Extremes and Their Role in Wildfire Dynamics: Insight from Portugal, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-124, 2024.

The fire season of 2023 was particularly devastating for Greece, with an estimated of around 175 000 ha, the second worst year since 1980 following the all-time record of 2007. More than 80 wildfires occurred in July over Attica region, Corfu, Evia and Rhodes islands, being responsible for 28 casualties and 75 injuries. The season was remarkably severe in the eastern sector of the West Thrace region in the northern continental Greece. A major fire started near the city of Alexandroupolis on 21st August and on 28th the main part of the Dadia forest and surrounding pine forests burnt, recording more than 80,000 ha and stated by EU officials as the largest recorded fire in the EU.

The exceptionality of the 2023 fire activity in Greece will be evaluated, considering the spring drought conditions, summer heatwaves and strong wind patterns observed over the region. ERA5 reanalyses will be used to characterize drought conditions and heat extremes. Active fires from SEVIRI, MODIS and VIIRS programs will allow characterizing fire occurrence and severity. The role of synoptic conditions and weather extremes will be evaluated and related to fire activity and behavior.   Moreover, during the hydrological year of 2023, Northeastern Greece was struck by a winter drought and by summer heatwaves. Fire beahviour was linked with strong wind patterns that affected the region. Vegetation dynamics throughout the pre-fire period was analysed over the affected region using the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Gross Primary Production (GPP) retrieved from MODIS data.  Spatial and temporal characterization of air pollutants over the region is performed, focusing particularly on the emissions of Particulate Matter (PM) and Carbon Monoxide (CM) during wildfire events, using the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring (CAMS) data.  The study attempts to bring new light to the synergistic effect between fuel availability and weather conditions that created extraordinary conditions for fire propagation.

This study is partially supported by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020- IDL, project FAIR- 2022.01660.PTDC) and by “Fundos próprios para desenvolvimento de projetos de I&D” Project MEDCEX - reference: 100SPID8106.

How to cite: Gouveia, C. M., Seco, D., Santos, R., and Durão, R.: The drivers of the 2023 Greece exceptional fire season , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-92, 2024.

Forest fires play a crucial role in the functioning and renewal of ecosystems.  Over the past two decades, large-scale, severe forest fires have become more frequent globally, and the risk is expected to increase as fire weather and drought conditions intensify, necessitating advanced tools for accurate severity assessment and predictive analysis. This study details the development of the Global Forest Burn Severity (GFBS) dataset, derived from Landsat imagery, providing global 30-meter resolution data spanning multiple years (2003 – 2016), which bridges the existing gap in high-resolution global assessments of forest burn severity, enabling researchers and policymakers to implement more effective forest conservation and fire management strategies. The trends of forest fires across different ecoregions are further analyzed based on the developed dataset, exploring the complex interactions between fire behavior and weather variables. This kind of analysis helps identify key drivers influencing burn severity, which vary significantly across different ecological zones. The integration of these findings with our GFBS dataset allows for the exploration of spatial and temporal patterns in burn severity on a global scale. Additionally, this study tries to develop an ecoregion-specific burn severity model that utilizes the GFBS dataset to predict future forest fires under various climate change scenarios. This model enhances our understanding of how changing climatic conditions could impact fire severity and frequency, providing essential insights for policymakers and conservation efforts aimed at mitigating the effects of wildfires.

How to cite: He, K., Shen, X., and Anagnostou, E.: Assessing and Predicting Forest Fires Burn Severity: A High-Resolution Approach Using the Global Forest Burn Severity Dataset, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-12, 2024.

Our previous studies have shown that climatic conditions in the Mediterranean and specifically over Greece are expected to change, resulting in an increase in fire season length which implies increases in burnt area. Our research employs the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) to investigate the repercussions of climate change and future land use land cover (LULC) on future burnt area using UKESM1-0-LL gridded data from the ISIMIP3b model run. In the present study, the modelled burnt area is validated against satellite observations from Copernicus. We use two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) consisting of an optimistic emissions scenario where emissions peak and decline beyond 2020 (RCP2.6) and a pessimistic scenario, in terms of mitigation where emissions continue to rise throughout the century (RCP8.5). Our results show increased burnt area in the distant future compared to the present period in response to higher future availability of heat resistant needle leaf trees.

How to cite: Rovithakis, A., Voulgarakis, A., Burke, E., Burton, C., Kasoar, M., Grillakis, M., and Seiradakis, K.: Estimating future burnt area changes over Greece using the JULES-INFERNO model, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-55, 2024.

Climate change imposes a substantial strain on global societies, compelling pragmatic, and timely adaptation measures to secure future prosperity while mitigating the impact of increasingly frequent and intense extreme events, such as wildfires. Compound drought and heatwaves further amplify the wildfire challenge, potentially impacting human health through a decrease in air quality. This underscores the need for concentrated attention and action. These events, with repercussions spanning continents and biomes, pose challenges for authorities striving to prepare effective responses. Our focus is on mainland Portugal, situated in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot, where we analyze the influence of diverse adaptation strategies on wildfire risk.

Using a weighted ensemble of regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX initiative, we project the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and Fire Radiative Power (FRP) across various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our findings indicate a potential three-fold increase in the occurrence of highly energetic fires, with energy releases surpassing 1000 MW, contingent upon the chosen RCP. Even under robust mitigation scenarios, the probability of megafires — those with energy releases exceeding 1000 MW — experiences a notable upsurge of approximately 1.5-fold. This emphasizes the imperative for proactive adaptation measures irrespective of ongoing mitigation endeavors.

We introduce three distinct mitigation strategies designed to simulate fire prevention policies targeting the most intense fires in diverse climate change scenarios. The most promising outcome entails a reduction in wildfires exceeding 1000 MW by 20 to 60%, an achievement realizable through preventing 95% of hotspots in regions characterized by extreme fire danger. This suggests that an immediate imposition of overly restrictive and costly policies throughout the summer months may not be imperative. Instead, implementing targeted strategies in critical fire danger areas could substantially mitigate the occurrence of destructive megafires.

This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). This work was performed under the scope of project https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC (DHEFEUS) and supported by national funds through FCT. AR acknowledge FCT I.P./MCTES for the FCT https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006. The authors would like to acknowledge the project “CEASEFIRE: Envio e disseminação de alertas automatizados de gestão de perigo meteorológico de incêndio”, financed by The Navigator Company.

How to cite: Bento, V. A., DaCamara, C. C., Russo, A., Nunes, S. A., Soares, P. M. M., and Trigo, R. M.: Adapting to change: evaluating the effects of fire prevention approaches in response to climate change, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-58, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-58, 2024.

Weather conditions that can enhance wildfire potential are a problem faced by many countries around the world. Wildfires can have major economic impacts as well as prolonged effects on populations and ecosystems. Distributing information on fire hazards to the public and first responders in real-time is crucial for fire risk management and risk reduction. Although most fires today are caused by people, weather conditions determine if and how fast the fire spreads.  In particular, research has shown that atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a key parameter predicting the dryness of vegetation and the available fuel for fires. VPD is determined from the environmental air temperature and relative humidity, both of which are readily obtained from smartphones carried by the public.  In this study we use smartphone data from the OpenSignal company, collected during almost 4 years and from more than 40,000 users per day, to estimate VPD values. We have found that smartphone data can provide useful information about fire risk and danger. Here we present two case studies from wildfires in Israel and Portugal in which VPD is calculated using calibrated temperature and relative humidity measurements from smartphones.  Given the rapid growth in the number of smartphones around the globe, we propose applying smartphone data for meteorological research and fire-weather applications. Possible users of these results could be wildfire researchers; public policy specialists in wildfire, climate and disaster management; engineers working with big data; low-income countries; and citizen science advocates.

How to cite: Price, C., Shachaf, H., Rostkier-Edelstein, D., and Mass, C.: On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through Citizen Science, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-11, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-11, 2024.