PL1 – Diagnosis, trends, causalities, and predictions of extreme weather events in a climate change environment
Plinius18-7 | Posters | PL1
Projected changes in the link between the deficit of moisture transport from major moisture sources and drought occurrence in the Mediterranean regionLuis Gimeno-Sotelo, José Carlos Fernández-Alvarez, Raquel Nieto, Rogert Sorí, and Luis Gimeno
It is well-known that the Mediterranean region is a hotspot area in which meteorological droughts concerns, as climate models point to an increase in drought severity there. Here our aim is to study the projected changes in the influence of moisture transport deficits on drought occurrence. The contribution to the precipitation from the major moisture sources of the Mediterranean region is considered, i.e., from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea moisture sources. Statistical methods from the copula theory enabled us to estimate the conditional probability of drought occurrence given a contribution deficit from those sources, for the historical (1985-2014), mid-century (2036-2065) and end-century (2071-2100) periods. For this purpose, we make use of simulations based on dynamic downscaling by the high-resolution Eulerian mesoscale model Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) of the ERA5 reanalysis and the climate model Community Earth System Model Version 2 CESM2 model under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. We obtain that the pattern of the dominant moisture source, i.e., the one whose contribution deficit maximises drought probability, will remain relatively stable in the future. Moreover, our results point to a general increase in the conditional probabilities of drought occurrence given contribution deficits from the dominant source, for the mid-century and end-century periods, with respect to the historical one.
How to cite: Gimeno-Sotelo, L., Fernández-Alvarez, J. C., Nieto, R., Sorí, R., and Gimeno, L.: Projected changes in the link between the deficit of moisture transport from major moisture sources and drought occurrence in the Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-7, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-7, 2024.
It is well-known that the Mediterranean region is a hotspot area in which meteorological droughts concerns, as climate models point to an increase in drought severity there. Here our aim is to study the projected changes in the influence of moisture transport deficits on drought occurrence. The contribution to the precipitation from the major moisture sources of the Mediterranean region is considered, i.e., from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea moisture sources. Statistical methods from the copula theory enabled us to estimate the conditional probability of drought occurrence given a contribution deficit from those sources, for the historical (1985-2014), mid-century (2036-2065) and end-century (2071-2100) periods. For this purpose, we make use of simulations based on dynamic downscaling by the high-resolution Eulerian mesoscale model Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) of the ERA5 reanalysis and the climate model Community Earth System Model Version 2 CESM2 model under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. We obtain that the pattern of the dominant moisture source, i.e., the one whose contribution deficit maximises drought probability, will remain relatively stable in the future. Moreover, our results point to a general increase in the conditional probabilities of drought occurrence given contribution deficits from the dominant source, for the mid-century and end-century periods, with respect to the historical one.
How to cite: Gimeno-Sotelo, L., Fernández-Alvarez, J. C., Nieto, R., Sorí, R., and Gimeno, L.: Projected changes in the link between the deficit of moisture transport from major moisture sources and drought occurrence in the Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-7, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-7, 2024.
Plinius18-45 | Orals | PL1
Combined exploitation of deterministic and AI-based tools for severe weather predictionFederico Cassola, Daniele Carnevale, Davide Sacchetti, Marco Tizzi, Mattia Cavaiola, and Andrea Mazzino
Mediterranean coastal regions are regularly affected by sudden heavy precipitation events leading to very dangerous flash floods. The structures responsible for extreme precipitation episodes are typically intense and small-sized quasi-stationary V-shaped mesoscale convective systems, repeatedly affecting the same area for several hours. Severe rainfall prediction, being the result of many mutually interacting multiscale processes, not yet completely understood and modeled, is still a major challenge for numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Furthermore, the intrinsic uncertainty related to deep moist convection and the large sensitivity of precipitation to uncertainties in the initial and boundary condition decrease the skill of numerical models, even at high horizontal resolution and short forecast times. In recent times, artificial intelligence (AI) emerged as a powerful tool for handling vast amounts of data and extracting patterns and relationships that might be challenging to identify through traditional fully-deterministic algorithms.
In the framework of the AIxtreme (Physics-based AI for predicting extreme weather and space weather events) project, a suite of AI-based techniques is being developed to calibrate numerical models based on the physics of the atmosphere, with the aim of anticipating the occurrence of extreme weather events and supporting decisions of civil protection agencies.
Thanks to the combined exploitation of deterministic weather prediction models and efficient data-driven AI-based algorithms, operational weather forecasts with improved accuracy in relation to key meteorological observables such as wind, temperature and precipitation, are expected to become available. A first significant result of the project is the development of a deep learning framework, named FlashNet, able to forecast able to forecast lightning flashes up to 48 h ahead in terms of probability of occurrence. FlashNet is capable to find an optimal mapping of meteorological features predicted two days ahead by the state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) into lightning flash occurrence. The prediction skill of the resulting AI-enhanced algorithm turns out to be significantly higher than that of the fully deterministic algorithm employed in the ECMWF model. A remarkable Recall peak of about 95% within the 0-24 h forecast interval is obtained. This performance surpasses the 85% achieved by the ECMWF model at the same Precision of the AI algorithm.
How to cite: Cassola, F., Carnevale, D., Sacchetti, D., Tizzi, M., Cavaiola, M., and Mazzino, A.: Combined exploitation of deterministic and AI-based tools for severe weather prediction, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-45, 2024.
Mediterranean coastal regions are regularly affected by sudden heavy precipitation events leading to very dangerous flash floods. The structures responsible for extreme precipitation episodes are typically intense and small-sized quasi-stationary V-shaped mesoscale convective systems, repeatedly affecting the same area for several hours. Severe rainfall prediction, being the result of many mutually interacting multiscale processes, not yet completely understood and modeled, is still a major challenge for numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Furthermore, the intrinsic uncertainty related to deep moist convection and the large sensitivity of precipitation to uncertainties in the initial and boundary condition decrease the skill of numerical models, even at high horizontal resolution and short forecast times. In recent times, artificial intelligence (AI) emerged as a powerful tool for handling vast amounts of data and extracting patterns and relationships that might be challenging to identify through traditional fully-deterministic algorithms.
In the framework of the AIxtreme (Physics-based AI for predicting extreme weather and space weather events) project, a suite of AI-based techniques is being developed to calibrate numerical models based on the physics of the atmosphere, with the aim of anticipating the occurrence of extreme weather events and supporting decisions of civil protection agencies.
Thanks to the combined exploitation of deterministic weather prediction models and efficient data-driven AI-based algorithms, operational weather forecasts with improved accuracy in relation to key meteorological observables such as wind, temperature and precipitation, are expected to become available. A first significant result of the project is the development of a deep learning framework, named FlashNet, able to forecast able to forecast lightning flashes up to 48 h ahead in terms of probability of occurrence. FlashNet is capable to find an optimal mapping of meteorological features predicted two days ahead by the state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) into lightning flash occurrence. The prediction skill of the resulting AI-enhanced algorithm turns out to be significantly higher than that of the fully deterministic algorithm employed in the ECMWF model. A remarkable Recall peak of about 95% within the 0-24 h forecast interval is obtained. This performance surpasses the 85% achieved by the ECMWF model at the same Precision of the AI algorithm.
How to cite: Cassola, F., Carnevale, D., Sacchetti, D., Tizzi, M., Cavaiola, M., and Mazzino, A.: Combined exploitation of deterministic and AI-based tools for severe weather prediction, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-45, 2024.
Plinius18-14 | Posters | PL1
High-Resolution Climatology of Compound Precipitation and Wind Extremes in the Mediterranean: Insights from Extratropical CyclonesPatricia Coll-Hidalgo, Jose Carlos Fernández-Alvarez, Raquel Nieto, and Luis Gimeno
Substantial human and socio-economic losses can result from combined extreme wind and rainfall events. The compound events of extreme precipitation and wind associated with extratropical cyclones (ECs) have been examined in European regions, particularly focusing on the Mediterranean due to their significant impact. We aim to analyze the climatology of EC-related extreme precipitation and wind gusts co-occurrence over the Mediterranean. We accomplished this by utilizing high-resolution data from dynamic downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional model. The WRF model version 4.2 is forced by ERA-5 reanalysis data, with boundary conditions updated every 6 hours. We configured an output domain with a horizontal resolution of 20 km and 40 vertical sigma levels extending from the surface to 50 hPa. The simulation covered the period from 1985 to 2022. Given that combined extremes frequently coincide over the Mediterranean in the vicinity of North Atlantic (NATL) cyclones or Mediterranean cyclones (Raveh-Rubin and Wernli, 2015), we applied an EC tracking algorithm over both regions during the extended winter season from October to April.
Precipitation extremes are detected across timescales of 6 hours, 24 hours, and 48 hours, considering the sum of the variable, with wind gusts identified as the maximum within the shorter timescale. Following the methodology outlined by Owen et al. (2021), a co-occurrence is recorded when both precipitation accumulation and maximum wind gust exceed the 95th percentile threshold within the same period and gridpoint. Subsequently, we filtered the events to ensure they coincided within the spatial domain occupied by an EC. We delineated three distinct EC areas corresponding to the EC core region (within the cyclone radius), warm conveyor belt (WCB) regions, and an extensive area within the EC circulation. This analysis was facilitated by leveraging dynamic downscaling of high-resolution data, allowing for better capture of mesoscale structures. We used this classification to analyze insights into the seasonal occurrence, geographical distribution, and composite perspective of co-occurrence regarding EC centres during the most intense events. Following the approach of Owen et al. (2021), we established metrics for extremal dependency and temporal lag between extremes occurring in different structures of the lower pressure system, with a specific focus on those associated with the WCB. We categorized our findings into purely Mediterranean domain cyclones, those originating from the NATL, with a particular focus on the most intense occurrences.
Owen, L. E., Catto, J. L., Stephenson, D. B., & Dunstone, N. J. (2021). Compound precipitation and wind extremes over Europe and their relationship to extratropical cyclones. Weather and Climate Extremes, 33, 100342. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100342
Raveh‐Rubin, S., & Wernli, H. (2015). Large‐scale wind and precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean: a climatological analysis for 1979–2012. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141(691), 2404-2417. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2531
How to cite: Coll-Hidalgo, P., Fernández-Alvarez, J. C., Nieto, R., and Gimeno, L.: High-Resolution Climatology of Compound Precipitation and Wind Extremes in the Mediterranean: Insights from Extratropical Cyclones, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-14, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-14, 2024.
Substantial human and socio-economic losses can result from combined extreme wind and rainfall events. The compound events of extreme precipitation and wind associated with extratropical cyclones (ECs) have been examined in European regions, particularly focusing on the Mediterranean due to their significant impact. We aim to analyze the climatology of EC-related extreme precipitation and wind gusts co-occurrence over the Mediterranean. We accomplished this by utilizing high-resolution data from dynamic downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional model. The WRF model version 4.2 is forced by ERA-5 reanalysis data, with boundary conditions updated every 6 hours. We configured an output domain with a horizontal resolution of 20 km and 40 vertical sigma levels extending from the surface to 50 hPa. The simulation covered the period from 1985 to 2022. Given that combined extremes frequently coincide over the Mediterranean in the vicinity of North Atlantic (NATL) cyclones or Mediterranean cyclones (Raveh-Rubin and Wernli, 2015), we applied an EC tracking algorithm over both regions during the extended winter season from October to April.
Precipitation extremes are detected across timescales of 6 hours, 24 hours, and 48 hours, considering the sum of the variable, with wind gusts identified as the maximum within the shorter timescale. Following the methodology outlined by Owen et al. (2021), a co-occurrence is recorded when both precipitation accumulation and maximum wind gust exceed the 95th percentile threshold within the same period and gridpoint. Subsequently, we filtered the events to ensure they coincided within the spatial domain occupied by an EC. We delineated three distinct EC areas corresponding to the EC core region (within the cyclone radius), warm conveyor belt (WCB) regions, and an extensive area within the EC circulation. This analysis was facilitated by leveraging dynamic downscaling of high-resolution data, allowing for better capture of mesoscale structures. We used this classification to analyze insights into the seasonal occurrence, geographical distribution, and composite perspective of co-occurrence regarding EC centres during the most intense events. Following the approach of Owen et al. (2021), we established metrics for extremal dependency and temporal lag between extremes occurring in different structures of the lower pressure system, with a specific focus on those associated with the WCB. We categorized our findings into purely Mediterranean domain cyclones, those originating from the NATL, with a particular focus on the most intense occurrences.
Owen, L. E., Catto, J. L., Stephenson, D. B., & Dunstone, N. J. (2021). Compound precipitation and wind extremes over Europe and their relationship to extratropical cyclones. Weather and Climate Extremes, 33, 100342. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100342
Raveh‐Rubin, S., & Wernli, H. (2015). Large‐scale wind and precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean: a climatological analysis for 1979–2012. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141(691), 2404-2417. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2531
How to cite: Coll-Hidalgo, P., Fernández-Alvarez, J. C., Nieto, R., and Gimeno, L.: High-Resolution Climatology of Compound Precipitation and Wind Extremes in the Mediterranean: Insights from Extratropical Cyclones, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-14, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-14, 2024.
Plinius18-54 | Orals | PL1
Lightning over Italy: analyses of data and impact of their assimilation on lightning and precipitation forecastStefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Marco Petracca, Nicoletta Roberto, Silvia Puca, and Stefano Dietrich
Lightning can influence many human activities, being a threat also for human lives. The Mediterranean area is prone to thunderstorms and lightning. In this context, lightning forecast plays a fundamental role. We studied the impact of lightning data assimilation (LDA) on lightning and precipitation forecast over Italy and over part of the Central Mediterranean Basin. First, we highlight some characteristics of strokes over Italy and the Central Mediterranean [1], considering data over 13 years recorded by LINET (LIghtning NETwork). The analyses of the records show that lightning activity occurs mainly in summer and fall; moreover, a substantial change of convection characteristics between the two season is apparent. In summer, convection occurs over the land, in fall it is mainly over the sea.
Then, we consider a two-seasons data assimilation experiment [2] running the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Dynamic Lightning Scheme (DLS) at 3km horizontal resolution for summer 2020 and fall 2021. Each simulation produced the forecast for the following 6h. Therefore, the representation of a whole day needs four different simulations. Verification is done over two sub-periods, 0-3h and 3-6h after assimilation. Results for the 0-3h phase show a positive impact of LDA on strokes forecast, both improving correct forecasts and reducing false alarms. Depending on the case, LDA can trigger convection missed by control forecast and can correct strokes’ patterns, leading to predictions more in agreement with observations. An improvement compared to the previous day forecast, without LDA, is also obtained. Therefore, the forecast over the 0-3h phase with LDA is applicable to issue warnings and alerts as the storm is approaching. LDA forces convection where lightning is observed. Consequently, lightning forecast improvement given by LDA, is more evident over the land in summer and over the sea in fall. The 3-6h phase show a negligible impact of LDA on strokes forecast.
References
[1] Marco Petracca, Stefano Federico, Nicoletta Roberto, Silvia Puca, Leo Pio D'Adderio, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Stefano Dietrich. A 13-year long strokes statistical analysis over the Central Mediterranean area, Atmospheric Research, Volume 304, 2024, 107368, ISSN 0169-8095, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107368.
[2] Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Jana Popova, Zbyněk Sokol, Lukáš Pop, Martina Lagasio, Barry H. Lynn, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, Improving the lightning forecast with the WRF model and lightning data assimilation: Results of a two-seasons numerical experiment over Italy, Atmospheric Research, Volume 304, 2024, 107382, ISSN 0169-8095, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107382.
How to cite: Federico, S., Torcasio, R. C., Petracca, M., Roberto, N., Puca, S., and Dietrich, S.: Lightning over Italy: analyses of data and impact of their assimilation on lightning and precipitation forecast, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-54, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-54, 2024.
Lightning can influence many human activities, being a threat also for human lives. The Mediterranean area is prone to thunderstorms and lightning. In this context, lightning forecast plays a fundamental role. We studied the impact of lightning data assimilation (LDA) on lightning and precipitation forecast over Italy and over part of the Central Mediterranean Basin. First, we highlight some characteristics of strokes over Italy and the Central Mediterranean [1], considering data over 13 years recorded by LINET (LIghtning NETwork). The analyses of the records show that lightning activity occurs mainly in summer and fall; moreover, a substantial change of convection characteristics between the two season is apparent. In summer, convection occurs over the land, in fall it is mainly over the sea.
Then, we consider a two-seasons data assimilation experiment [2] running the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Dynamic Lightning Scheme (DLS) at 3km horizontal resolution for summer 2020 and fall 2021. Each simulation produced the forecast for the following 6h. Therefore, the representation of a whole day needs four different simulations. Verification is done over two sub-periods, 0-3h and 3-6h after assimilation. Results for the 0-3h phase show a positive impact of LDA on strokes forecast, both improving correct forecasts and reducing false alarms. Depending on the case, LDA can trigger convection missed by control forecast and can correct strokes’ patterns, leading to predictions more in agreement with observations. An improvement compared to the previous day forecast, without LDA, is also obtained. Therefore, the forecast over the 0-3h phase with LDA is applicable to issue warnings and alerts as the storm is approaching. LDA forces convection where lightning is observed. Consequently, lightning forecast improvement given by LDA, is more evident over the land in summer and over the sea in fall. The 3-6h phase show a negligible impact of LDA on strokes forecast.
References
[1] Marco Petracca, Stefano Federico, Nicoletta Roberto, Silvia Puca, Leo Pio D'Adderio, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Stefano Dietrich. A 13-year long strokes statistical analysis over the Central Mediterranean area, Atmospheric Research, Volume 304, 2024, 107368, ISSN 0169-8095, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107368.
[2] Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Jana Popova, Zbyněk Sokol, Lukáš Pop, Martina Lagasio, Barry H. Lynn, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, Improving the lightning forecast with the WRF model and lightning data assimilation: Results of a two-seasons numerical experiment over Italy, Atmospheric Research, Volume 304, 2024, 107382, ISSN 0169-8095, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107382.
How to cite: Federico, S., Torcasio, R. C., Petracca, M., Roberto, N., Puca, S., and Dietrich, S.: Lightning over Italy: analyses of data and impact of their assimilation on lightning and precipitation forecast, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-54, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-54, 2024.
Plinius18-34 | Posters | PL1
Characterization of cold waves in the eastern Iberian Peninsula for a 70-year period (1947-2016)Adrià Revert, María José Estrela, David Corell, and Javier Miró
The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is causing a generalized increase in temperatures. The Mediterranean basin is one of the most affected places on the planet, with effects such as an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures, among others, having been described in the scientific literature. However, in spite of this generalized thermal increase, the Mediterranean region still registers episodes of intense cold, some of them of great intensity and which give rise to episodes of cold waves. That is why the main objective of this work is to analyze the evolution of cold waves in the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, specifically in the province of Alicante, an area of great tourist activity and, therefore, of great economic importance in the country. The study covers a period of 70 years (1947-2016) and uses surface temperature data from a dense network of 92 meteorological observatories, which have been previously subjected to a filling and homogenization process. In turn, it uses the HYSPLIT model to analyze the origin of the identified cold waves. The most relevant results are: (1) A total of 93 cold waves have been registered during the 70 years of study; (2) The most recent decade (2007-2016) has been the one with the largest number of cold waves; (3) The annual number of days with cold wave has been decreasing over time, as well as the duration of cold waves, which are now shorter; (4) February and January are, in this order, the months with the largest number of cold waves, which also occur, to a lesser extent, in December, March and November; (5) In recent decades, cold waves have affected a greater surface area, although it has not been observed that they have been colder; (6) The most frequent cold waves have a maritime origin, while those of continental origin are the ones that cause the greatest impact in terms of surface area. It is important to accurately characterize the cold waves in our territory and to deepen our knowledge of them, so that we can adopt adaptation measures in the context of a climate change scenario. This work serves as a starting point for a study that characterizes cold waves in the entire Mediterranean region of the Iberian Peninsula.
The study had the financial support of the projects Tool4Extreme PID2020-118797RBI00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and PROMETEO/2021/016 funded by Generalitat Valenciana.
How to cite: Revert, A., Estrela, M. J., Corell, D., and Miró, J.: Characterization of cold waves in the eastern Iberian Peninsula for a 70-year period (1947-2016), 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-34, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-34, 2024.
The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is causing a generalized increase in temperatures. The Mediterranean basin is one of the most affected places on the planet, with effects such as an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures, among others, having been described in the scientific literature. However, in spite of this generalized thermal increase, the Mediterranean region still registers episodes of intense cold, some of them of great intensity and which give rise to episodes of cold waves. That is why the main objective of this work is to analyze the evolution of cold waves in the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, specifically in the province of Alicante, an area of great tourist activity and, therefore, of great economic importance in the country. The study covers a period of 70 years (1947-2016) and uses surface temperature data from a dense network of 92 meteorological observatories, which have been previously subjected to a filling and homogenization process. In turn, it uses the HYSPLIT model to analyze the origin of the identified cold waves. The most relevant results are: (1) A total of 93 cold waves have been registered during the 70 years of study; (2) The most recent decade (2007-2016) has been the one with the largest number of cold waves; (3) The annual number of days with cold wave has been decreasing over time, as well as the duration of cold waves, which are now shorter; (4) February and January are, in this order, the months with the largest number of cold waves, which also occur, to a lesser extent, in December, March and November; (5) In recent decades, cold waves have affected a greater surface area, although it has not been observed that they have been colder; (6) The most frequent cold waves have a maritime origin, while those of continental origin are the ones that cause the greatest impact in terms of surface area. It is important to accurately characterize the cold waves in our territory and to deepen our knowledge of them, so that we can adopt adaptation measures in the context of a climate change scenario. This work serves as a starting point for a study that characterizes cold waves in the entire Mediterranean region of the Iberian Peninsula.
The study had the financial support of the projects Tool4Extreme PID2020-118797RBI00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and PROMETEO/2021/016 funded by Generalitat Valenciana.
How to cite: Revert, A., Estrela, M. J., Corell, D., and Miró, J.: Characterization of cold waves in the eastern Iberian Peninsula for a 70-year period (1947-2016), 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-34, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-34, 2024.
Plinius18-65 | Posters | PL1
Past, present and future high-temperature extremes over the Euro-Mediterranean region at the local scaleVictoria Gallardo, Emilia Sánchez-Gómez, Eleonore Riber, Julien Boé, Laurent Terray, and Juan Pedro Montávez
High-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) might be an appropriate tool to address the study of future potential impacts of climate change at local scale. In this study, the performance of RCMs from the Euro-CORDEX-11 exercise in the simulation of extreme values and trends of high temperatures at local scale is evaluated. A list of major Euro-Mediterranean airports, within which a large variety of topographies are represented, is selected as case studies, as this work is particularly motivated by the emerging concern about the impacts of climate change on aviation at the airport scale. We consider the upper percentiles (90, 95 and 99th) of the daily maximum near-surface air temperature (TX) in summer as representative for high-temperature extremes. Summer TX trends are computed by quantile regression for each airport. E-OBS is considered as observational reference after having verified, from the intercomparison of several observations and reanalysis, that the choice of the observational reference will not be determinant for the CMs evaluation in these terms. The added value of RCMs over the coarser resolution Global Climate Models (GCMs) is then assessed by comparing the Euro-CORDEX-11 ensemble with the driving GCMs from CMIP5 regarding summer TX extremes and trends in recent decades at the selected airports. Next, whether future projections differ between RCMs and GCMs over the same locations is addressed, focusing on two time horizons: near term (2021-2050) and long term (2071-2100). Finally, the bias correction of CM projections is performed by applying a variation of the quantile delta mapping method, which allows the future magnitude of summer TX extremes to be estimated over the selected locations.
Results show that RCMs overestimate the magnitude of TX extremes at the airports when forced by quasi-observational data, while the driving GCMs underestimate it. The distributions of past trends simulated by both the RCM and GCM ensembles remain compatible with observations. Therefore, we conclude that there is no generally prevailing added value in the Euro-CORDEX-11 RCMs regarding the magnitude of extreme values nor the trends of high temperatures at the airport’s local scale, despite their higher spatial resolution. Besides, GCMs are found to project a larger warming than RCMs over the same locations (between 0.8 and 1.2ºC greater, on average, by the near term and between 1.8 and 2.7ºC greater, on average, by the long term), which is coherent with previous studies. We find that, as long as this difference between the two ensembles is not fully explained, impact studies and the design of adaptation and/or mitigation policies at regional to local scales should not be solely based on RCM simulations, in order to not underestimate the actual uncertainty in future climate projections. Both RCM and GCM future projections should be taken into cosideration.
The future magnitude of high-temperature extremes obtained here could be used for any other impact study concerning the increasing intensity of these events at the airports considered. Also, the methodology developed and used in this study could be followed to carry out any other local impact study in the same terms.
How to cite: Gallardo, V., Sánchez-Gómez, E., Riber, E., Boé, J., Terray, L., and Montávez, J. P.: Past, present and future high-temperature extremes over the Euro-Mediterranean region at the local scale, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-65, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-65, 2024.
High-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) might be an appropriate tool to address the study of future potential impacts of climate change at local scale. In this study, the performance of RCMs from the Euro-CORDEX-11 exercise in the simulation of extreme values and trends of high temperatures at local scale is evaluated. A list of major Euro-Mediterranean airports, within which a large variety of topographies are represented, is selected as case studies, as this work is particularly motivated by the emerging concern about the impacts of climate change on aviation at the airport scale. We consider the upper percentiles (90, 95 and 99th) of the daily maximum near-surface air temperature (TX) in summer as representative for high-temperature extremes. Summer TX trends are computed by quantile regression for each airport. E-OBS is considered as observational reference after having verified, from the intercomparison of several observations and reanalysis, that the choice of the observational reference will not be determinant for the CMs evaluation in these terms. The added value of RCMs over the coarser resolution Global Climate Models (GCMs) is then assessed by comparing the Euro-CORDEX-11 ensemble with the driving GCMs from CMIP5 regarding summer TX extremes and trends in recent decades at the selected airports. Next, whether future projections differ between RCMs and GCMs over the same locations is addressed, focusing on two time horizons: near term (2021-2050) and long term (2071-2100). Finally, the bias correction of CM projections is performed by applying a variation of the quantile delta mapping method, which allows the future magnitude of summer TX extremes to be estimated over the selected locations.
Results show that RCMs overestimate the magnitude of TX extremes at the airports when forced by quasi-observational data, while the driving GCMs underestimate it. The distributions of past trends simulated by both the RCM and GCM ensembles remain compatible with observations. Therefore, we conclude that there is no generally prevailing added value in the Euro-CORDEX-11 RCMs regarding the magnitude of extreme values nor the trends of high temperatures at the airport’s local scale, despite their higher spatial resolution. Besides, GCMs are found to project a larger warming than RCMs over the same locations (between 0.8 and 1.2ºC greater, on average, by the near term and between 1.8 and 2.7ºC greater, on average, by the long term), which is coherent with previous studies. We find that, as long as this difference between the two ensembles is not fully explained, impact studies and the design of adaptation and/or mitigation policies at regional to local scales should not be solely based on RCM simulations, in order to not underestimate the actual uncertainty in future climate projections. Both RCM and GCM future projections should be taken into cosideration.
The future magnitude of high-temperature extremes obtained here could be used for any other impact study concerning the increasing intensity of these events at the airports considered. Also, the methodology developed and used in this study could be followed to carry out any other local impact study in the same terms.
How to cite: Gallardo, V., Sánchez-Gómez, E., Riber, E., Boé, J., Terray, L., and Montávez, J. P.: Past, present and future high-temperature extremes over the Euro-Mediterranean region at the local scale, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-65, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-65, 2024.
Plinius18-5 | Orals | PL1
Lightning superbolts follow ship-tracks in Eastern Mediterranean winter thunderstormsYoav Yair, Menahem Korzets, Yanai Namia-Cohen, Colin Price, and Niv Surian
The interaction between aerosol particles and thunderstorm evolution and properties is complex and was studied by direct observational campaigns, remote sensing from space and through numerical simulations. Aerosols invigorate convection and can lead to enhanced charging manifested in more lightning, but they can also lead to a "Boomerang Effect" where too large concentrations of particles lead to diminished vertical development and weaker electrical activity (Altaratz et al., 2010). The effects of ship exhaust on ocean cloudiness have been studied intensively in recent years, following the discovery of prolonged ship tracks in oceanic regions where maritime transportation is most heavy, leading to large-scale changes in albedo and reduced precipitation. Recently it was shown that aerosols emitted by ships also tend to increase lightning activity, by modifying the dynamics and microphysics of clouds formed close to the busiest shipping lanes (Thornton et al., 2017) and enhancing the strike probability due to the tall metal ship structure (Peterson, 2023).
We study the effects of ship-emitted aerosols on thunderstorms in one of the busiest shipping routes in the world: the Mediterranean Sea between the Suez Canal and the Gibraltar Straights (see: https://www.marinetraffic.com/). This region hosts hundreds of ships daily, and space observations show considerable enhancement of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Sox and NOx concentrations there, some from land sources and others directly related to ship emissions. The present study utilized lightning detection networks' data (ENTLN) and researched the properties of lightning (peak current, multiplicity, polarity) with respect to aerosol concentrations and meteorological conditions. The shipping exhaust data was derived from the CAMS global emission inventories.
Initial results from the Eastern Mediterranean shows a marked increase in winter (DJF) lightning activity over the main east-west shipping lanes from Suez towards Crete, where a conspicuously larger amount of cloud-to-ground lightning is observed, with a higher fraction of superbolts (I > 200 kA). We suggest that the synergistic action of desert dust and air-pollution aerosols acts to invigorate or diminish convection, depending on their relative concentrations and the ambient meteorological conditions. This changes the effectiveness of charge separation processes and affects the electrical activity of winter thunderstorms in these specific areas of the Mediterranean Sea.
Altaratz, O., I. Koren, Y. Yair, and C. Price (2010), Lightning response to smoke from Amazonian fires, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L07801, doi:10.1029/2010GL042679
Peterson, M. (2023). Interactions between lightning and ship traffic. Earth and Space Science, 10(11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA002926
Thornton, J. A., Virts, K. S., Holzworth, R. H., & Mitchell, T. P. (2017). Lightning enhancement over major oceanic shipping lanes. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(17), 9102–9111. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074982
How to cite: Yair, Y., Korzets, M., Namia-Cohen, Y., Price, C., and Surian, N.: Lightning superbolts follow ship-tracks in Eastern Mediterranean winter thunderstorms, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-5, 2024.
The interaction between aerosol particles and thunderstorm evolution and properties is complex and was studied by direct observational campaigns, remote sensing from space and through numerical simulations. Aerosols invigorate convection and can lead to enhanced charging manifested in more lightning, but they can also lead to a "Boomerang Effect" where too large concentrations of particles lead to diminished vertical development and weaker electrical activity (Altaratz et al., 2010). The effects of ship exhaust on ocean cloudiness have been studied intensively in recent years, following the discovery of prolonged ship tracks in oceanic regions where maritime transportation is most heavy, leading to large-scale changes in albedo and reduced precipitation. Recently it was shown that aerosols emitted by ships also tend to increase lightning activity, by modifying the dynamics and microphysics of clouds formed close to the busiest shipping lanes (Thornton et al., 2017) and enhancing the strike probability due to the tall metal ship structure (Peterson, 2023).
We study the effects of ship-emitted aerosols on thunderstorms in one of the busiest shipping routes in the world: the Mediterranean Sea between the Suez Canal and the Gibraltar Straights (see: https://www.marinetraffic.com/). This region hosts hundreds of ships daily, and space observations show considerable enhancement of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Sox and NOx concentrations there, some from land sources and others directly related to ship emissions. The present study utilized lightning detection networks' data (ENTLN) and researched the properties of lightning (peak current, multiplicity, polarity) with respect to aerosol concentrations and meteorological conditions. The shipping exhaust data was derived from the CAMS global emission inventories.
Initial results from the Eastern Mediterranean shows a marked increase in winter (DJF) lightning activity over the main east-west shipping lanes from Suez towards Crete, where a conspicuously larger amount of cloud-to-ground lightning is observed, with a higher fraction of superbolts (I > 200 kA). We suggest that the synergistic action of desert dust and air-pollution aerosols acts to invigorate or diminish convection, depending on their relative concentrations and the ambient meteorological conditions. This changes the effectiveness of charge separation processes and affects the electrical activity of winter thunderstorms in these specific areas of the Mediterranean Sea.
Altaratz, O., I. Koren, Y. Yair, and C. Price (2010), Lightning response to smoke from Amazonian fires, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L07801, doi:10.1029/2010GL042679
Peterson, M. (2023). Interactions between lightning and ship traffic. Earth and Space Science, 10(11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA002926
Thornton, J. A., Virts, K. S., Holzworth, R. H., & Mitchell, T. P. (2017). Lightning enhancement over major oceanic shipping lanes. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(17), 9102–9111. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074982
How to cite: Yair, Y., Korzets, M., Namia-Cohen, Y., Price, C., and Surian, N.: Lightning superbolts follow ship-tracks in Eastern Mediterranean winter thunderstorms, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-5, 2024.
Plinius18-63 | Orals | PL1
On the role of air-sea-wave interaction in developing destructive Tropical-Like Cyclones DANIELAntonio Ricchi, Rossella Ferretti, Florian Pantillon, Stavros Dafis, and Diego Saúl Carrió Carrió
Between Sept. 4, 2023, and Sept. 12, 2023, a cyclogenesis develops close to the Greek coast in the Ionian Sea. The evolution of this cyclone is divided into two phases: a strongly baroclinic one with intense orographic precipitation in Greece, and a final barotropic phase with the formation of an intense tropical-like cyclone (TLC) impacting Libya, causing more than 10,000 deaths due to the intense precipitation causing the sudden break of a dam. In this work, we investigate this TLC (named “Daniel”) initially using the standalone WRF model with different sea surface temperature sensitivity tests until we arrive at the use of the coupled atmosphere-ocean and atmosphere-ocean-wave models. The purpose of this work is to investigate the role of each environmental component in the development of the barotropic phase and the record-breaking precipitation. We also aim to study the energy fluxes and mixing factors between the atmosphere and the ocean. Preliminary results show that SST plays a crucial role in the intensification of the cyclone and precipitation, not only along the cyclone track but especially in the neighboring areas, where high values of heat transport are found.
How to cite: Ricchi, A., Ferretti, R., Pantillon, F., Dafis, S., and Saúl Carrió Carrió, D.: On the role of air-sea-wave interaction in developing destructive Tropical-Like Cyclones DANIEL, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-63, 2024.
Between Sept. 4, 2023, and Sept. 12, 2023, a cyclogenesis develops close to the Greek coast in the Ionian Sea. The evolution of this cyclone is divided into two phases: a strongly baroclinic one with intense orographic precipitation in Greece, and a final barotropic phase with the formation of an intense tropical-like cyclone (TLC) impacting Libya, causing more than 10,000 deaths due to the intense precipitation causing the sudden break of a dam. In this work, we investigate this TLC (named “Daniel”) initially using the standalone WRF model with different sea surface temperature sensitivity tests until we arrive at the use of the coupled atmosphere-ocean and atmosphere-ocean-wave models. The purpose of this work is to investigate the role of each environmental component in the development of the barotropic phase and the record-breaking precipitation. We also aim to study the energy fluxes and mixing factors between the atmosphere and the ocean. Preliminary results show that SST plays a crucial role in the intensification of the cyclone and precipitation, not only along the cyclone track but especially in the neighboring areas, where high values of heat transport are found.
How to cite: Ricchi, A., Ferretti, R., Pantillon, F., Dafis, S., and Saúl Carrió Carrió, D.: On the role of air-sea-wave interaction in developing destructive Tropical-Like Cyclones DANIEL, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-63, 2024.
Plinius18-70 | Posters | PL1
Impacts of a Saharan dust event on weather over Eastern Mediterranean simulated by the WRF-Chem modelEmmanouil Dakanalis and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Dust storms represent a significant source of aerosols in the atmosphere, impacting atmospheric composition and air quality. Moreover, the pollution caused by dust storms can exert a radiative effect, influencing short-term weather patterns and climate. In our research, we employed the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to investigate how dust storms affect aerosol pollution levels and their related short-term meteorological consequences, using the Eastern Mediterranean as a case study. We focused on the severe dust outbreak of March 2018, a period marked by intense dust transport in the Easten Mediterranean and especially Greece caused mainly by strong southwesterly winds. We conducted model experiments, comparing scenarios with and without dust emissions to quantify the influence of these emissions on dust concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD), shortwave radiation, and meteorological variables such as temperature, water vapor and cloud cover. Our results indicate that high concentrations of dust in the atmosphere can reduce the amount of radiation reaching the surface due to scattering and absorption by the dust particles. Additionally, it was found that the reemitted longwave radiation can increase the temperature near the surface. Regions in central Greece, as well as Crete and western Turkey, show an increase in temperature when dust emissions are considered in simulations, since they were more affected by the dust. Finally, a decrease in water vapor concentration was noted, primarily attributed to the hygroscopic nature of the dust particles and also to the change in atmospheric circulation induced by increased temperatures. Our research underscores that aerosols generated by dust storms can significantly alter weather conditions, emphasizing the importance of incorporating such feedbacks for more accurate weather forecasting.
How to cite: Dakanalis, E. and Voulgarakis, A.: Impacts of a Saharan dust event on weather over Eastern Mediterranean simulated by the WRF-Chem model, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-70, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-70, 2024.
Dust storms represent a significant source of aerosols in the atmosphere, impacting atmospheric composition and air quality. Moreover, the pollution caused by dust storms can exert a radiative effect, influencing short-term weather patterns and climate. In our research, we employed the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to investigate how dust storms affect aerosol pollution levels and their related short-term meteorological consequences, using the Eastern Mediterranean as a case study. We focused on the severe dust outbreak of March 2018, a period marked by intense dust transport in the Easten Mediterranean and especially Greece caused mainly by strong southwesterly winds. We conducted model experiments, comparing scenarios with and without dust emissions to quantify the influence of these emissions on dust concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD), shortwave radiation, and meteorological variables such as temperature, water vapor and cloud cover. Our results indicate that high concentrations of dust in the atmosphere can reduce the amount of radiation reaching the surface due to scattering and absorption by the dust particles. Additionally, it was found that the reemitted longwave radiation can increase the temperature near the surface. Regions in central Greece, as well as Crete and western Turkey, show an increase in temperature when dust emissions are considered in simulations, since they were more affected by the dust. Finally, a decrease in water vapor concentration was noted, primarily attributed to the hygroscopic nature of the dust particles and also to the change in atmospheric circulation induced by increased temperatures. Our research underscores that aerosols generated by dust storms can significantly alter weather conditions, emphasizing the importance of incorporating such feedbacks for more accurate weather forecasting.
How to cite: Dakanalis, E. and Voulgarakis, A.: Impacts of a Saharan dust event on weather over Eastern Mediterranean simulated by the WRF-Chem model, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-70, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-70, 2024.
Plinius18-79 | Posters | PL1
Snow cover and snow depth trends in the BalkansIoannis Masloumidis, Stavros Dafis, Kostas Lagouvardos, Giorgos Kyros, and Vassiliki Kotroni
Climate change impacts the majority of our planet’s ecosystems, and human lives and activities. As precipitation and temperature patterns evolve differently compared to historical trends, significant changes are also observed in snow on both global and local scales. One region where the economy and daily life are highly dependent on snow, and which is notably affected by climate change, is southeastern Europe. This research is performed in the frame of SNOWCLIM project funded by the European Climate Foundation and it aims to analyze historical trends in snow depth and snow coverusing numerical model reanalysis and satellite data. The study focuses on the Balkan Peninsula along a north-south gradient, with particular attention to the ski centers in these countries. The results indicate a pronounced decreasing trend in both snow depth and snow cover duration across most of the region. However, the impact of climate change is not uniform across all months, regions, or ski centers, thus the study also discusses in depth these spatial and temporal variations.
How to cite: Masloumidis, I., Dafis, S., Lagouvardos, K., Kyros, G., and Kotroni, V.: Snow cover and snow depth trends in the Balkans , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-79, 2024.
Climate change impacts the majority of our planet’s ecosystems, and human lives and activities. As precipitation and temperature patterns evolve differently compared to historical trends, significant changes are also observed in snow on both global and local scales. One region where the economy and daily life are highly dependent on snow, and which is notably affected by climate change, is southeastern Europe. This research is performed in the frame of SNOWCLIM project funded by the European Climate Foundation and it aims to analyze historical trends in snow depth and snow coverusing numerical model reanalysis and satellite data. The study focuses on the Balkan Peninsula along a north-south gradient, with particular attention to the ski centers in these countries. The results indicate a pronounced decreasing trend in both snow depth and snow cover duration across most of the region. However, the impact of climate change is not uniform across all months, regions, or ski centers, thus the study also discusses in depth these spatial and temporal variations.
How to cite: Masloumidis, I., Dafis, S., Lagouvardos, K., Kyros, G., and Kotroni, V.: Snow cover and snow depth trends in the Balkans , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-79, 2024.
Plinius18-72 | Orals | PL1
Numerical simulations of a supercell in northeastern Italy with WRF-HAILCASTAndrea Perbellini, Francesco Sioni, Agostino Manzato, and Lorenzo Giovannini
In the early morning of 1 August 2021, a supercell developed over the Veneto plain and moved eastward towards Friuli-Venezia Giulia, locally producing hailstones with diameters up to 9 cm.
In the present work, this event is studied by means of simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 1 km resolution, coupled with the HAILCAST hail growth parameterization, which provides estimates of the maximum hail size at the ground. Several simulations are performed using different initial and boundary conditions (GFS and IFS forecasts), different initialization times and physics options, to study the predictability of the event.
The analysis of the model results highlights a significant sensitivity to the forcing meteorological model and the initialization time. In particular, WRF is not able to properly simulate the development of strong convection over the Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia plain in the early morning of 1 August using GFS forcing, while better results are obtained with IFS initial and boundary conditions, especially when simulations are initialized more than 24 hours before the event. Moreover, results are significantly affected by the microphysics scheme and the land surface model, while the planetary boundary layer parameterization seems to have a minor influence. However, the development of the supercell is properly simulated, with hailstone diameters comparable to observations, only when data from radiosoundings of Udine Rivolto are nudged into the model, highlighting the importance, and at the same time the complexity, of correctly reproducing local thermodynamic conditions for the simulation of extreme convection events.
How to cite: Perbellini, A., Sioni, F., Manzato, A., and Giovannini, L.: Numerical simulations of a supercell in northeastern Italy with WRF-HAILCAST, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-72, 2024.
In the early morning of 1 August 2021, a supercell developed over the Veneto plain and moved eastward towards Friuli-Venezia Giulia, locally producing hailstones with diameters up to 9 cm.
In the present work, this event is studied by means of simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 1 km resolution, coupled with the HAILCAST hail growth parameterization, which provides estimates of the maximum hail size at the ground. Several simulations are performed using different initial and boundary conditions (GFS and IFS forecasts), different initialization times and physics options, to study the predictability of the event.
The analysis of the model results highlights a significant sensitivity to the forcing meteorological model and the initialization time. In particular, WRF is not able to properly simulate the development of strong convection over the Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia plain in the early morning of 1 August using GFS forcing, while better results are obtained with IFS initial and boundary conditions, especially when simulations are initialized more than 24 hours before the event. Moreover, results are significantly affected by the microphysics scheme and the land surface model, while the planetary boundary layer parameterization seems to have a minor influence. However, the development of the supercell is properly simulated, with hailstone diameters comparable to observations, only when data from radiosoundings of Udine Rivolto are nudged into the model, highlighting the importance, and at the same time the complexity, of correctly reproducing local thermodynamic conditions for the simulation of extreme convection events.
How to cite: Perbellini, A., Sioni, F., Manzato, A., and Giovannini, L.: Numerical simulations of a supercell in northeastern Italy with WRF-HAILCAST, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-72, 2024.
Plinius18-88 | Posters | PL1
Heatwaves, Droughts, and Their Synergy in the MediterraneanAndré Lourenço, Virgílio A. Bento, João L. Geirinhas, and Ana Russo
Europe, particularly the Mediterranean region, faces an escalating threat from extreme weather events like heatwaves and droughts. These events are projected to worsen under climate change, impacting agriculture, water resources, and society.
This study delves into the individual and combined occurrences of heatwaves and droughts across Southern Europe. We investigate the interplay between soil moisture and atmospheric water vapor using high-resolution ERA5 climate data. We analyze trends in heatwave duration, intensity, and drought frequency. Additionally, we assess changes in soil moisture, average temperature, and precipitation. Furthermore, the study explores linkages between large-scale climate patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the occurrence of these extreme events.
Our results indicate an upward trend in both drought and heatwave intensity and duration. Soil moisture exhibits a concerning decline, with statistically significant negative trends across extensive regions. We also observe a rise in average temperatures alongside a slight decrease in average precipitation.
This research anticipates an increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of combined heatwave and drought events. This trend is likely driven by climatic phenomena such as synoptic systems and preceding soil moisture conditions. Our findings aim to enhance the representation of these complex interactions within climate models, leading to improved projections of extreme events in the Mediterranean.
This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). This work was performed under the scope of project https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC (DHEFEUS) and supported by national funds through FCT. DL and AR acknowledge FCT I.P./MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) for the FCT https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.03183.CEECIND/CP1715/CT0004 and https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006, respectively.
How to cite: Lourenço, A., A. Bento, V., L. Geirinhas, J., and Russo, A.: Heatwaves, Droughts, and Their Synergy in the Mediterranean, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-88, 2024.
Europe, particularly the Mediterranean region, faces an escalating threat from extreme weather events like heatwaves and droughts. These events are projected to worsen under climate change, impacting agriculture, water resources, and society.
This study delves into the individual and combined occurrences of heatwaves and droughts across Southern Europe. We investigate the interplay between soil moisture and atmospheric water vapor using high-resolution ERA5 climate data. We analyze trends in heatwave duration, intensity, and drought frequency. Additionally, we assess changes in soil moisture, average temperature, and precipitation. Furthermore, the study explores linkages between large-scale climate patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the occurrence of these extreme events.
Our results indicate an upward trend in both drought and heatwave intensity and duration. Soil moisture exhibits a concerning decline, with statistically significant negative trends across extensive regions. We also observe a rise in average temperatures alongside a slight decrease in average precipitation.
This research anticipates an increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of combined heatwave and drought events. This trend is likely driven by climatic phenomena such as synoptic systems and preceding soil moisture conditions. Our findings aim to enhance the representation of these complex interactions within climate models, leading to improved projections of extreme events in the Mediterranean.
This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). This work was performed under the scope of project https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC (DHEFEUS) and supported by national funds through FCT. DL and AR acknowledge FCT I.P./MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) for the FCT https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.03183.CEECIND/CP1715/CT0004 and https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006, respectively.
How to cite: Lourenço, A., A. Bento, V., L. Geirinhas, J., and Russo, A.: Heatwaves, Droughts, and Their Synergy in the Mediterranean, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-88, 2024.
Plinius18-115 | Orals | PL1
The peculiarities of Ianos among Mediterranean tropical-like cyclonesDaniele Nigro, Simona Bordoni, Lorenzo Giovannini, and Mario Marcello Miglietta
Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, also known as medicanes, are small cyclones observed in the Mediterranean region with an average frequency of 1-2 cases per year, mainly in autumn and winter. The tropical-like phase of these cyclones is characterized by the presence of a symmetric thermal structure and a deep warm core, which are features typical of tropical cyclones. Their mechanisms of formation and tropical transition have been investigated by many authors, but an official rigorous definition of medicane is still lacking, due to the significant case-by-case differences.
In this work, 17 Mediterranean cyclones, including three potential medicanes in 2023, have been first analyzed using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset to evaluate their similarities and dissimilarities, considering different features in the lower and upper troposphere. Results show that the development of a warm core is negatively correlated with potential vorticity (PV) in the upper troposphere, while PV increases in the low troposphere due to latent heat release. It has also been verified that during the tropical-like phase the wind shear presents lower values, the jet stream is weaker and farther from the cyclone center, and the cyclone is vertically aligned, even if some exceptions exist. Then, the presence of a dry intrusion has been investigated using back-trajectories, showing that all cyclones present descending dry air associated with a PV streamer, meaning that the upper-level dynamics are fundamental in the early stages. However, the threshold of 400 hPa of descent in 48 hours used in literature to define the dry intrusion is not appropriate for cyclogenesis in the Mediterranean, and, in some cases, a weaker PV streamer associated with a less pronounced descent is sufficient for cyclogenesis. In this regard, Ianos, one of the strongest medicanes ever recorded, presents two weak descending flows associated with PV streamers, one in the early stage and one before the strong deep warm core phase. This cyclone has also been analyzed through a simulation with the WRF model with a grid spacing of 3 km, with the main aim of evaluating the different terms of the pressure tendency equation (PTE), to quantify the role of upper-level dynamics and diabatic heating on the surface pressure tendency. The same procedure has been applied to analyze the recent cyclone Daniel that affected Libya in September 2023, and a comparison with Ianos has been performed.
How to cite: Nigro, D., Bordoni, S., Giovannini, L., and Miglietta, M. M.: The peculiarities of Ianos among Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-115, 2024.
Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, also known as medicanes, are small cyclones observed in the Mediterranean region with an average frequency of 1-2 cases per year, mainly in autumn and winter. The tropical-like phase of these cyclones is characterized by the presence of a symmetric thermal structure and a deep warm core, which are features typical of tropical cyclones. Their mechanisms of formation and tropical transition have been investigated by many authors, but an official rigorous definition of medicane is still lacking, due to the significant case-by-case differences.
In this work, 17 Mediterranean cyclones, including three potential medicanes in 2023, have been first analyzed using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset to evaluate their similarities and dissimilarities, considering different features in the lower and upper troposphere. Results show that the development of a warm core is negatively correlated with potential vorticity (PV) in the upper troposphere, while PV increases in the low troposphere due to latent heat release. It has also been verified that during the tropical-like phase the wind shear presents lower values, the jet stream is weaker and farther from the cyclone center, and the cyclone is vertically aligned, even if some exceptions exist. Then, the presence of a dry intrusion has been investigated using back-trajectories, showing that all cyclones present descending dry air associated with a PV streamer, meaning that the upper-level dynamics are fundamental in the early stages. However, the threshold of 400 hPa of descent in 48 hours used in literature to define the dry intrusion is not appropriate for cyclogenesis in the Mediterranean, and, in some cases, a weaker PV streamer associated with a less pronounced descent is sufficient for cyclogenesis. In this regard, Ianos, one of the strongest medicanes ever recorded, presents two weak descending flows associated with PV streamers, one in the early stage and one before the strong deep warm core phase. This cyclone has also been analyzed through a simulation with the WRF model with a grid spacing of 3 km, with the main aim of evaluating the different terms of the pressure tendency equation (PTE), to quantify the role of upper-level dynamics and diabatic heating on the surface pressure tendency. The same procedure has been applied to analyze the recent cyclone Daniel that affected Libya in September 2023, and a comparison with Ianos has been performed.
How to cite: Nigro, D., Bordoni, S., Giovannini, L., and Miglietta, M. M.: The peculiarities of Ianos among Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-115, 2024.
Plinius18-109 | Orals | PL1
Radar based nowcasting to enhance urban resilience to flash floods in the Metropolitan Area of BarcelonaLaura Esbri, Tomeu Rigo, Blanca Aznar, and María Carmen Llasat
The North-western Mediterranean coast, including the Catalan littoral zone, faces a high probability of extreme weather events. Climate change exacerbates these challenges by increasing the frequency and intensity of phenomena like droughts, heatwaves, and flooding. The Metropolitan Area of Barcelona, with its dense urban environment and complex topography, struggles with significant hydrological challenges, especially during intense, localized downpours. Efficient drainage is difficult due to the region's coastal location and urban landscape.
To enhance urban resilience, this study emphasizes the importance of using non-structural and structural techniques that mimic natural hydrologic responses, thereby reducing adverse runoff impacts. Understanding the dynamics of convective precipitation at high resolution is crucial for sustainable water management and flood resilience in Barcelona. Improved knowledge of storm structures and rainfall patterns can help predict and mitigate extreme weather effects in the metropolitan area.
This work introduces a radar-based nowcasting approach that utilizes a two-dimensional radar product with three-dimensional atmospheric information to improve early warnings for the urban region with high spatial resolution. Unlike previous methods that relied single levels of radar reflectivity such as CAPPI and TOP (Esbri et al., 2021), this new approach focuses on the most convective parts of storms by incorporating Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL) density-based nowcasting. The VIL density product, derived from radar composites, provides vertical storm structure information in a two-dimensional format, enabling faster data processing without losing volumetric capabilities.
The obtained storm centroid distributions using the two different methodologies are discussed. The new resulting warning areas are compared with incidents from Barcelona's rainfall drainage network, managed by Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua S.A., and the economic impacts collected by the Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros for municipalities in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona, thereby redefining rainfall hotspots in the region.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 101037193.
References:
Esbrí L., Rigo T., Llasat M.C., Aznar B. Identifying Storm Hotspots and the Most Unsettled Areas in Barcelona by Analysing Significant Rainfall Episodes from 2013 to 2018. Water. 2021; 13(13):1730. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131730
How to cite: Esbri, L., Rigo, T., Aznar, B., and Llasat, M. C.: Radar based nowcasting to enhance urban resilience to flash floods in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-109, 2024.
The North-western Mediterranean coast, including the Catalan littoral zone, faces a high probability of extreme weather events. Climate change exacerbates these challenges by increasing the frequency and intensity of phenomena like droughts, heatwaves, and flooding. The Metropolitan Area of Barcelona, with its dense urban environment and complex topography, struggles with significant hydrological challenges, especially during intense, localized downpours. Efficient drainage is difficult due to the region's coastal location and urban landscape.
To enhance urban resilience, this study emphasizes the importance of using non-structural and structural techniques that mimic natural hydrologic responses, thereby reducing adverse runoff impacts. Understanding the dynamics of convective precipitation at high resolution is crucial for sustainable water management and flood resilience in Barcelona. Improved knowledge of storm structures and rainfall patterns can help predict and mitigate extreme weather effects in the metropolitan area.
This work introduces a radar-based nowcasting approach that utilizes a two-dimensional radar product with three-dimensional atmospheric information to improve early warnings for the urban region with high spatial resolution. Unlike previous methods that relied single levels of radar reflectivity such as CAPPI and TOP (Esbri et al., 2021), this new approach focuses on the most convective parts of storms by incorporating Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL) density-based nowcasting. The VIL density product, derived from radar composites, provides vertical storm structure information in a two-dimensional format, enabling faster data processing without losing volumetric capabilities.
The obtained storm centroid distributions using the two different methodologies are discussed. The new resulting warning areas are compared with incidents from Barcelona's rainfall drainage network, managed by Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua S.A., and the economic impacts collected by the Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros for municipalities in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona, thereby redefining rainfall hotspots in the region.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 101037193.
References:
Esbrí L., Rigo T., Llasat M.C., Aznar B. Identifying Storm Hotspots and the Most Unsettled Areas in Barcelona by Analysing Significant Rainfall Episodes from 2013 to 2018. Water. 2021; 13(13):1730. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131730
How to cite: Esbri, L., Rigo, T., Aznar, B., and Llasat, M. C.: Radar based nowcasting to enhance urban resilience to flash floods in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-109, 2024.
Plinius18-131 | Posters | PL1
The Greek Atmospheric Reanalysis DatabaseChristina Katsoura, Stavros Dafis, Giorgos Kyros, Antonis Bezes, Ioannis Kioutsoukis, Kostas Lagouvardos, and Vassiliki Kotroni
The METEO unit at the National Observatory of Athens, has developed a new atmospheric reanalysis database utilizing BOLAM numerical weather prediction model. This model incorporates reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-ERA5) and provides a comprehensive coverage of Europe, as well as parts of the Middle East and North Africa. The dataset offers a spatial resolution of 6 km and a temporal resolution of 1 hour, encompassing the period from 1991 to 2022. This study, performed in the frame of CLIMPACT project (Grant Agreement: 2023ΝΑ11900001), focuses on the validation of the reanalysis dataset through comparison with surface and upper-air observations across Europe. Statistical verification was conducted using data from selected meteorological stations, with time series spanning over 15 years. The verification results were also compared with other widely used open-access reanalysis datasets. The findings indicate that the BOLAM reanalysis model is highly suitable for a range of applications, including climate studies and renewable energy resource assessments.
How to cite: Katsoura, C., Dafis, S., Kyros, G., Bezes, A., Kioutsoukis, I., Lagouvardos, K., and Kotroni, V.: The Greek Atmospheric Reanalysis Database, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-131, 2024.
The METEO unit at the National Observatory of Athens, has developed a new atmospheric reanalysis database utilizing BOLAM numerical weather prediction model. This model incorporates reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-ERA5) and provides a comprehensive coverage of Europe, as well as parts of the Middle East and North Africa. The dataset offers a spatial resolution of 6 km and a temporal resolution of 1 hour, encompassing the period from 1991 to 2022. This study, performed in the frame of CLIMPACT project (Grant Agreement: 2023ΝΑ11900001), focuses on the validation of the reanalysis dataset through comparison with surface and upper-air observations across Europe. Statistical verification was conducted using data from selected meteorological stations, with time series spanning over 15 years. The verification results were also compared with other widely used open-access reanalysis datasets. The findings indicate that the BOLAM reanalysis model is highly suitable for a range of applications, including climate studies and renewable energy resource assessments.
How to cite: Katsoura, C., Dafis, S., Kyros, G., Bezes, A., Kioutsoukis, I., Lagouvardos, K., and Kotroni, V.: The Greek Atmospheric Reanalysis Database, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-131, 2024.
Plinius18-132 | Orals | PL1
Evaluation of precipitation forecasts of several NWP modelling systems within South-East European Multi-Hazard Early Warning Advisory System - SEE-MHEWS-A projectKristian Horvath, Iris Odak Plenković, and Endi Keresturi
SEE-MHEWS-A project aims to provide operational forecasters from 17 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the South-East Europe with effective and tested tools for forecasting hazardous weather events and their possible impacts in order to improve the accuracy of warnings and their relevance to stakeholders and users. On a single virtual platform, the system collects NWP information for the provision of accurate forecasts and warnings to support hazard-related decision-making by national authorities. In addition to the operational IFS model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), four limited area model (LAM) configurations for South-East Europe (SEE) are developed and run in a quasi-operational environment including: ALADIN-ALARO, COSMO, ICON, and WRF NMM-B. Our interest is a structured, region-wide forecast verification as a necessary component of the process to establish a multi-hazard early warning system.
We study strengths and weaknesses of different modelling systems in different weather situations to provide an initial estimate of model success in a real-time operational situation for precipitation, including extreme events, over a pilot area of wider eastern Adriatic coast spanning over five countries. First, our approach uses moment-based and categorical statistical verification, including a decomposition of scores into biases and dispersion (phase) errors. Best results averaged over all stations are not achieved for a single model but vary across several modelling configurations depending on the score analyzed. It is clearly noticeable that models are of lower accuracy near the mountainous coast compared to continental inland due to the generally more intense precipitation, influence of the complex terrain and influence of sea and surface inhomogeneities. Likewise, categorical verification suggests low-medium intensity precipitation forecast accuracy is the lowest where Dinaric Alps are most complex, but results do improve in higher precipitation categories. Although results are far from perfect for most extreme events, all models show skillful predictions and none of the models shows considerably more strengths than others with extremal dependence index (EDI) ranging from 0.45 up to 0.85 depending on the model.
To alleviate effects of small errors in time and space on verification measures, in absence of spatially homogenous precipitation data, we apply a neighborhood verification approach, which offers an alternative that rewards closeness by relaxing the requirement for exact matches between forecasts and observations in the spatial domain. The single-observation neighborhood approach (SO-NF) results show an improvement in ETS values with an increase of the spatial scale for the categories of events. At the highest precipitation category (above 30 mm/24h) and common spatial scale of ~45 km, ECMWF and COSMO models seem to perform somewhat more consistently than other models. Nevertheless, the improvement of the results with the forecast neighborhood size noticed for most models and countries shows the benefits of the SO-NF approach in terms of recognizing additional forecasted values present in the proximity of the exact location, even though they were slightly displaced.
How to cite: Horvath, K., Odak Plenković, I., and Keresturi, E.: Evaluation of precipitation forecasts of several NWP modelling systems within South-East European Multi-Hazard Early Warning Advisory System - SEE-MHEWS-A project, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-132, 2024.
SEE-MHEWS-A project aims to provide operational forecasters from 17 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the South-East Europe with effective and tested tools for forecasting hazardous weather events and their possible impacts in order to improve the accuracy of warnings and their relevance to stakeholders and users. On a single virtual platform, the system collects NWP information for the provision of accurate forecasts and warnings to support hazard-related decision-making by national authorities. In addition to the operational IFS model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), four limited area model (LAM) configurations for South-East Europe (SEE) are developed and run in a quasi-operational environment including: ALADIN-ALARO, COSMO, ICON, and WRF NMM-B. Our interest is a structured, region-wide forecast verification as a necessary component of the process to establish a multi-hazard early warning system.
We study strengths and weaknesses of different modelling systems in different weather situations to provide an initial estimate of model success in a real-time operational situation for precipitation, including extreme events, over a pilot area of wider eastern Adriatic coast spanning over five countries. First, our approach uses moment-based and categorical statistical verification, including a decomposition of scores into biases and dispersion (phase) errors. Best results averaged over all stations are not achieved for a single model but vary across several modelling configurations depending on the score analyzed. It is clearly noticeable that models are of lower accuracy near the mountainous coast compared to continental inland due to the generally more intense precipitation, influence of the complex terrain and influence of sea and surface inhomogeneities. Likewise, categorical verification suggests low-medium intensity precipitation forecast accuracy is the lowest where Dinaric Alps are most complex, but results do improve in higher precipitation categories. Although results are far from perfect for most extreme events, all models show skillful predictions and none of the models shows considerably more strengths than others with extremal dependence index (EDI) ranging from 0.45 up to 0.85 depending on the model.
To alleviate effects of small errors in time and space on verification measures, in absence of spatially homogenous precipitation data, we apply a neighborhood verification approach, which offers an alternative that rewards closeness by relaxing the requirement for exact matches between forecasts and observations in the spatial domain. The single-observation neighborhood approach (SO-NF) results show an improvement in ETS values with an increase of the spatial scale for the categories of events. At the highest precipitation category (above 30 mm/24h) and common spatial scale of ~45 km, ECMWF and COSMO models seem to perform somewhat more consistently than other models. Nevertheless, the improvement of the results with the forecast neighborhood size noticed for most models and countries shows the benefits of the SO-NF approach in terms of recognizing additional forecasted values present in the proximity of the exact location, even though they were slightly displaced.
How to cite: Horvath, K., Odak Plenković, I., and Keresturi, E.: Evaluation of precipitation forecasts of several NWP modelling systems within South-East European Multi-Hazard Early Warning Advisory System - SEE-MHEWS-A project, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-132, 2024.
Plinius18-3 | Orals | PL1
Attribution of the destructive Mediterranean derecho in 2022 to anthropogenic warmingJuan Jesus González-Alemán, Damián Insua-Costa, Eric Bazile, Sergi González-Herrero, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Pieter Groenemeijer, and Markus G. Donat
An extremely intense and organized convective storm, classified as a “derecho”, developed over the western Mediterranean Sea on August 18, 2022. The system affected Corsica, northern Italy, and Austria, with wind gusts up to 62 m/s and giant hailstones (diameter of around 11 cm), being responsible for 12 fatalities and 106 injured people.
The derecho developed over an extreme and persisting marine heatwave over the western Mediterranean. Therefore, the hypothesis of a relationship between the atmospheric event and the marine heatwave rapidly arose, suggesting a possible link with anthropogenic climate change.
By performing model simulations with both the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) and the nonhydrostatic operational AROME model and using the pseudo-global warming approach, we find a relationship between the marine heatwave, the actual anthropogenic climate change conditions, and the development of this extremely rare and severe convective event. These results suggest the increase of probability of development of similar events with respect to the past associated to climate change, and illustrate how climate change effects can cascade through a chain of extreme weather and climate events.
How to cite: González-Alemán, J. J., Insua-Costa, D., Bazile, E., González-Herrero, S., Miglietta, M. M., Groenemeijer, P., and Donat, M. G.: Attribution of the destructive Mediterranean derecho in 2022 to anthropogenic warming, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-3, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-3, 2024.
An extremely intense and organized convective storm, classified as a “derecho”, developed over the western Mediterranean Sea on August 18, 2022. The system affected Corsica, northern Italy, and Austria, with wind gusts up to 62 m/s and giant hailstones (diameter of around 11 cm), being responsible for 12 fatalities and 106 injured people.
The derecho developed over an extreme and persisting marine heatwave over the western Mediterranean. Therefore, the hypothesis of a relationship between the atmospheric event and the marine heatwave rapidly arose, suggesting a possible link with anthropogenic climate change.
By performing model simulations with both the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) and the nonhydrostatic operational AROME model and using the pseudo-global warming approach, we find a relationship between the marine heatwave, the actual anthropogenic climate change conditions, and the development of this extremely rare and severe convective event. These results suggest the increase of probability of development of similar events with respect to the past associated to climate change, and illustrate how climate change effects can cascade through a chain of extreme weather and climate events.
How to cite: González-Alemán, J. J., Insua-Costa, D., Bazile, E., González-Herrero, S., Miglietta, M. M., Groenemeijer, P., and Donat, M. G.: Attribution of the destructive Mediterranean derecho in 2022 to anthropogenic warming, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-3, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-3, 2024.
Plinius18-37 | Orals | PL1
Understanding the influence of a warmer climate on the processes leading to Extreme Rainfalls in the Western Mediterranean. A Pseudo-Global-Warming experiment.Yseut Bahuet-Bourret and Daniel Argüeso
In the Mediterranean region, there is no consensus in trends of observations of extreme rainfall events, nor agreement between models in multi-models’ projections. Yet, extreme rainfalls in the Mediterranean region poses significant risks to human life, infrastructure, and ecosystems. In this context, our work aims to better understand the physical processes leading to changes in extreme rainfall in the region. The region of study is the Western Part of the Mediterranean.
We investigate the topic conducting a Pseudo-Global-Warming experiment. We simulated two 10 years periods with WRF at a convection-permitting resolution, which helps to capture extreme rainfall events more realistically. One simulation is for the period 2011-2020, fed by ERA5 reanalysis (past-present), and another simulation for the same period, but with a climate change signal - extracted from 27 GCM (Global Climate Models) – added to the ERA5 data from 2011-2020. The GCM signal is calculated for a high-emission scenario (SSP585) and the period 2070-2099 with respect to 1985-2014.
We show how the characteristics of events producing extreme rainfalls could change in a warmer climate, focusing on their size, intensity, localization, and durations. Furthermore, we provide insights of the physical processes driving these changes by exploring the relationship between extreme rainfall and indicators of atmospheric conditions favoring their occurrence. For example, we show the connection between high Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and extreme rainfall, both in the present and in a warmer future. We also examine how often extreme rainfall events coincide with convective storms or cyclones, and explore how the relationship between storm occurrence and extreme rainfall may change in a warmer future climate.
Our findings offer valuable understanding of the complex dynamics of extreme rainfall events in the Western Mediterranean region, providing crucial insights into the potential impacts of climate change on this vulnerable area.
How to cite: Bahuet-Bourret, Y. and Argüeso, D.: Understanding the influence of a warmer climate on the processes leading to Extreme Rainfalls in the Western Mediterranean. A Pseudo-Global-Warming experiment., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-37, 2024.
In the Mediterranean region, there is no consensus in trends of observations of extreme rainfall events, nor agreement between models in multi-models’ projections. Yet, extreme rainfalls in the Mediterranean region poses significant risks to human life, infrastructure, and ecosystems. In this context, our work aims to better understand the physical processes leading to changes in extreme rainfall in the region. The region of study is the Western Part of the Mediterranean.
We investigate the topic conducting a Pseudo-Global-Warming experiment. We simulated two 10 years periods with WRF at a convection-permitting resolution, which helps to capture extreme rainfall events more realistically. One simulation is for the period 2011-2020, fed by ERA5 reanalysis (past-present), and another simulation for the same period, but with a climate change signal - extracted from 27 GCM (Global Climate Models) – added to the ERA5 data from 2011-2020. The GCM signal is calculated for a high-emission scenario (SSP585) and the period 2070-2099 with respect to 1985-2014.
We show how the characteristics of events producing extreme rainfalls could change in a warmer climate, focusing on their size, intensity, localization, and durations. Furthermore, we provide insights of the physical processes driving these changes by exploring the relationship between extreme rainfall and indicators of atmospheric conditions favoring their occurrence. For example, we show the connection between high Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and extreme rainfall, both in the present and in a warmer future. We also examine how often extreme rainfall events coincide with convective storms or cyclones, and explore how the relationship between storm occurrence and extreme rainfall may change in a warmer future climate.
Our findings offer valuable understanding of the complex dynamics of extreme rainfall events in the Western Mediterranean region, providing crucial insights into the potential impacts of climate change on this vulnerable area.
How to cite: Bahuet-Bourret, Y. and Argüeso, D.: Understanding the influence of a warmer climate on the processes leading to Extreme Rainfalls in the Western Mediterranean. A Pseudo-Global-Warming experiment., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-37, 2024.
Plinius18-22 | Orals | PL1
Analysis of Causal Links between Mediterranean Climate Extremes and Teleconnection IndicesAlexandros Papadopoulos-Zachos, Christina Anagnostopoulou, Giorgia Di Capua, Georgia Lazoglou, Konstantia Tolika, Kondylia Velykou, and Errikos Michail Manios
It is well-established that the Mediterranean region is a climate change hotspot, with extreme phenomena increasing all across the basin. Heatwaves have intensified both in frequency and duration, resulting in unprecedented high temperatures that exacerbate health risks and strain energy resources. The region has also experienced a rise in intense precipitation events, leading to flash floods that pose significant threats to human lives, infrastructure, and agricultural yields. Moreover, the Mediterranean is witnessing a notable increase in the frequency and severity of wildfires, propelled by prolonged droughts and exacerbated by shifting precipitation patterns. These climatic extremes not only endanger the safety and well-being of local communities but also pose tough challenges to regional economies, which are heavily reliant on sectors such as agriculture and tourism. A key step in addressing extreme events is the timely prediction of these phenomena by identifying the key drivers that lead to their occurrence.
In our analysis, we aim to pinpoint the fundamental drivers behind extremes in the Mediterranean. The MED-HOT index, designed to evaluate regional climate extremes through concurrent analysis of changes in precipitation and temperature frequency and intensity, provides a comprehensive assessment of Mediterranean climate challenges, highlighting areas requiring immediate attention and intervention. Using the MED-HOT index for the identification of the extreme hot spot regions, we uncover the potential drivers and the associated time lags of extreme precipitation, temperature, and drought. We apply the Peter and Clark momentary conditional independence (PCMCI) causal discovery algorithm to identify the prominent atmospheric teleconnection patterns driving extreme weather events in the Mediterranean Basin. The study suggests that teleconnection patterns in the North Atlantic notably impact precipitation, especially in the western parts of the Mediterranean Basin. Additionally, it is observed that the impact of teleconnections on extreme temperatures is more pronounced during the summer season. The results of this study are crucial for understanding the underlying drivers of extremes weather events and enhancing our preparedness to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
How to cite: Papadopoulos-Zachos, A., Anagnostopoulou, C., Di Capua, G., Lazoglou, G., Tolika, K., Velykou, K., and Manios, E. M.: Analysis of Causal Links between Mediterranean Climate Extremes and Teleconnection Indices , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-22, 2024.
It is well-established that the Mediterranean region is a climate change hotspot, with extreme phenomena increasing all across the basin. Heatwaves have intensified both in frequency and duration, resulting in unprecedented high temperatures that exacerbate health risks and strain energy resources. The region has also experienced a rise in intense precipitation events, leading to flash floods that pose significant threats to human lives, infrastructure, and agricultural yields. Moreover, the Mediterranean is witnessing a notable increase in the frequency and severity of wildfires, propelled by prolonged droughts and exacerbated by shifting precipitation patterns. These climatic extremes not only endanger the safety and well-being of local communities but also pose tough challenges to regional economies, which are heavily reliant on sectors such as agriculture and tourism. A key step in addressing extreme events is the timely prediction of these phenomena by identifying the key drivers that lead to their occurrence.
In our analysis, we aim to pinpoint the fundamental drivers behind extremes in the Mediterranean. The MED-HOT index, designed to evaluate regional climate extremes through concurrent analysis of changes in precipitation and temperature frequency and intensity, provides a comprehensive assessment of Mediterranean climate challenges, highlighting areas requiring immediate attention and intervention. Using the MED-HOT index for the identification of the extreme hot spot regions, we uncover the potential drivers and the associated time lags of extreme precipitation, temperature, and drought. We apply the Peter and Clark momentary conditional independence (PCMCI) causal discovery algorithm to identify the prominent atmospheric teleconnection patterns driving extreme weather events in the Mediterranean Basin. The study suggests that teleconnection patterns in the North Atlantic notably impact precipitation, especially in the western parts of the Mediterranean Basin. Additionally, it is observed that the impact of teleconnections on extreme temperatures is more pronounced during the summer season. The results of this study are crucial for understanding the underlying drivers of extremes weather events and enhancing our preparedness to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
How to cite: Papadopoulos-Zachos, A., Anagnostopoulou, C., Di Capua, G., Lazoglou, G., Tolika, K., Velykou, K., and Manios, E. M.: Analysis of Causal Links between Mediterranean Climate Extremes and Teleconnection Indices , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-22, 2024.
Plinius18-64 | Orals | PL1
Diagnosis and Projection of Mediterranean Sea Warming Trends within the Framework of a Generalized WorkflowEnrico Baglione, Marjahn Finlayson, and Simona Simoncelli
The Mediterranean Sea is experiencing accelerated warming, outpacing the global ocean average according to recent studies. This regional basin is particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change due to its unique topography and thermohaline circulation patterns. Observational data and model reanalysis have documented significant changes in the characteristics of Mediterranean water masses.
One of the best indicators of this alarming trend is the Ocean Heat Content (OHC). The challenge of this research manifests in the implementation of a cloud-based workflow to estimate the OHC, assessing its evolution in user-defined sub-regions or depth layers within the Mediterranean basin. This application developed within the EU Blue Cloud 26 project framework, has the ambition to access data machine-to-machine data from multiple blue data infrastructures (SeaDataNet, Copernicus Marine Service, EuroArgo, World Ocean Database) available to the scientific community.
The workflow will use the DIVAnd tool to map historical in situ temperature data on a regular grid and the results will be compared to ocean reanalysis products from INGV and the Copernicus Marine Service.
The analysis will focus on identifying OHC trends, with a specific emphasis on understanding the implications of these changes for the region's climate system.
We expect the results to highlight the spatial variability of warming trends within different sub-regions and depth layers, underscoring the complex interplay between hydrodynamics and climate change in shaping the Mediterranean's thermal structure.
Moreover, by leveraging this workflow, we ensure that ocean key variables are consistently updated and validated according to the most recent community practices. The effort conducted will allow us to have a key indicator, such as OHC, rapidly available and constantly updated according to the most recent data, thus supporting an informed and efficient decision.
Finally, this study will contribute to the broader understanding of regional climate dynamics and provide valuable insights into the diagnosis and projection of extreme weather events in the Mediterranean Sea within the context of a changing climate environment.
How to cite: Baglione, E., Finlayson, M., and Simoncelli, S.: Diagnosis and Projection of Mediterranean Sea Warming Trends within the Framework of a Generalized Workflow, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-64, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-64, 2024.
The Mediterranean Sea is experiencing accelerated warming, outpacing the global ocean average according to recent studies. This regional basin is particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change due to its unique topography and thermohaline circulation patterns. Observational data and model reanalysis have documented significant changes in the characteristics of Mediterranean water masses.
One of the best indicators of this alarming trend is the Ocean Heat Content (OHC). The challenge of this research manifests in the implementation of a cloud-based workflow to estimate the OHC, assessing its evolution in user-defined sub-regions or depth layers within the Mediterranean basin. This application developed within the EU Blue Cloud 26 project framework, has the ambition to access data machine-to-machine data from multiple blue data infrastructures (SeaDataNet, Copernicus Marine Service, EuroArgo, World Ocean Database) available to the scientific community.
The workflow will use the DIVAnd tool to map historical in situ temperature data on a regular grid and the results will be compared to ocean reanalysis products from INGV and the Copernicus Marine Service.
The analysis will focus on identifying OHC trends, with a specific emphasis on understanding the implications of these changes for the region's climate system.
We expect the results to highlight the spatial variability of warming trends within different sub-regions and depth layers, underscoring the complex interplay between hydrodynamics and climate change in shaping the Mediterranean's thermal structure.
Moreover, by leveraging this workflow, we ensure that ocean key variables are consistently updated and validated according to the most recent community practices. The effort conducted will allow us to have a key indicator, such as OHC, rapidly available and constantly updated according to the most recent data, thus supporting an informed and efficient decision.
Finally, this study will contribute to the broader understanding of regional climate dynamics and provide valuable insights into the diagnosis and projection of extreme weather events in the Mediterranean Sea within the context of a changing climate environment.
How to cite: Baglione, E., Finlayson, M., and Simoncelli, S.: Diagnosis and Projection of Mediterranean Sea Warming Trends within the Framework of a Generalized Workflow, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-64, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-64, 2024.
Plinius18-107 | Orals | PL1
Ranking and projection of CMIP6 based on Climatic Extremes performance over Central EuropeSaoussen Dhib, Tomas Halenka, Eva Holtanova, Shruti Verma, and Michal Belda
This study explores future projections of climate extreme indices in Central Europe and examines the impact of performance-based subsetting of Global Climate Models (GCMs). To achieve this, we evaluated CMIP6 GCMs based on their accuracy in replicating the observed mean, spatial correlation, and variability of selected climate extreme indices. We analyzed simulations from all available CMIP6 models under four socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), using two baseline periods (1961-1990 and 1981-2010) and two future periods (2021-2050 and 2070-2099). The study considered three air temperature indices: (i) the number of days with daily maximum temperature over 34 °C (Su34), (ii) the number of days with daily maximum temperature over 25 °C (Su25), and (iii) the number of tropical nights with daily minimum temperature over 20 °C (TN). Additionally, we analyzed four rainfall indices: (i) number of days with very heavy precipitation over 20 mm (R20mm), (ii) number of days with heavy precipitation over 10 mm (R10mm), (iii) consecutive dry days (CDD), and (iv) consecutive wet days (CWD) for precipitation thresholds of 1 mm and 2 mm. Our ranking method assigned scores to the models from 1 to 39 for each climate extreme index based on three evaluation metrics: Pearson’s correlation coefficient, the ratio of the mean, and the ratio of the standard deviation. The total rank for each GCM was determined by summing these scores across all indices and metrics.
The median of the multi-model ensemble (MME) indicates an important increase in the number of days with very heavy and heavy precipitation, especially towards the end of the century, while the number of consecutive wet days shows minimal change. Consecutive dry days are projected to increase significantly by the late 21st century. There is also a marked rise in the number of summer days and tropical nights, with more pronounced changes in the southern regions of the study area.
We selected the top ten models ensemble (BME) based on their performance ranking. For historical periods, the BME showed improved accuracy for the mean of all indices except Su34. For future projections, the BME indicates greater positive changes in very heavy precipitation and consecutive wet days compared to the MME. Conversely, the BME shows smaller changes for Su34 and Su25 indices, particularly for the far future period. The interquartile range (IQR) of R10mm and R20mm is higher for the BME than for the MME. The BME's IQR for CDD is also higher, except under SSP585, where it narrows in both future periods. The IQR for CWD remains similar between the BME and MME, with a higher IQR only under SSP126. For Su25 and Su34, the BME exhibits a higher IQR under all scenarios except SSP585 in the near future. Regarding tropical nights, the BME reduces the IQR across all scenarios while maintaining the MME medians.
How to cite: Dhib, S., Halenka, T., Holtanova, E., Verma, S., and Belda, M.: Ranking and projection of CMIP6 based on Climatic Extremes performance over Central Europe, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-107, 2024.
This study explores future projections of climate extreme indices in Central Europe and examines the impact of performance-based subsetting of Global Climate Models (GCMs). To achieve this, we evaluated CMIP6 GCMs based on their accuracy in replicating the observed mean, spatial correlation, and variability of selected climate extreme indices. We analyzed simulations from all available CMIP6 models under four socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), using two baseline periods (1961-1990 and 1981-2010) and two future periods (2021-2050 and 2070-2099). The study considered three air temperature indices: (i) the number of days with daily maximum temperature over 34 °C (Su34), (ii) the number of days with daily maximum temperature over 25 °C (Su25), and (iii) the number of tropical nights with daily minimum temperature over 20 °C (TN). Additionally, we analyzed four rainfall indices: (i) number of days with very heavy precipitation over 20 mm (R20mm), (ii) number of days with heavy precipitation over 10 mm (R10mm), (iii) consecutive dry days (CDD), and (iv) consecutive wet days (CWD) for precipitation thresholds of 1 mm and 2 mm. Our ranking method assigned scores to the models from 1 to 39 for each climate extreme index based on three evaluation metrics: Pearson’s correlation coefficient, the ratio of the mean, and the ratio of the standard deviation. The total rank for each GCM was determined by summing these scores across all indices and metrics.
The median of the multi-model ensemble (MME) indicates an important increase in the number of days with very heavy and heavy precipitation, especially towards the end of the century, while the number of consecutive wet days shows minimal change. Consecutive dry days are projected to increase significantly by the late 21st century. There is also a marked rise in the number of summer days and tropical nights, with more pronounced changes in the southern regions of the study area.
We selected the top ten models ensemble (BME) based on their performance ranking. For historical periods, the BME showed improved accuracy for the mean of all indices except Su34. For future projections, the BME indicates greater positive changes in very heavy precipitation and consecutive wet days compared to the MME. Conversely, the BME shows smaller changes for Su34 and Su25 indices, particularly for the far future period. The interquartile range (IQR) of R10mm and R20mm is higher for the BME than for the MME. The BME's IQR for CDD is also higher, except under SSP585, where it narrows in both future periods. The IQR for CWD remains similar between the BME and MME, with a higher IQR only under SSP126. For Su25 and Su34, the BME exhibits a higher IQR under all scenarios except SSP585 in the near future. Regarding tropical nights, the BME reduces the IQR across all scenarios while maintaining the MME medians.
How to cite: Dhib, S., Halenka, T., Holtanova, E., Verma, S., and Belda, M.: Ranking and projection of CMIP6 based on Climatic Extremes performance over Central Europe, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-107, 2024.
Plinius18-129 | Orals | PL1
Analysis of projected changes of heat days frequency within the Mediterranean region using CMIP6 simulationsRita Pongrácz, Ferenc Divinszki, and Anna Kis
The potential increase of heat stress is a major challenge of the 21st century, and the Mediterranean region is especially exposed to this natural hazard due to the anthropogenic global warming. This study evaluates the multi-model and multi-scenario ensemble from global climate model simulations - available from the CMIP6, i.e. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 of the World Climate Research Programme - including four different SSP-RCP scenario pairs (i.e. from immediate rapid mitigation and effective adaptation, SSP1-RCP2.6, to no mitigation with highly challenging adaptation, SSP5-RCP8.5). For this purpose, the Interactive Atlas of the IPCC AR6 Working Group 1 is used, and the geographical differences of climate projections are compared within the Mediterranean region of Europe. The study provides key information so the regional and national adaptation strategies for different socio-economic sectors can be built and/or updated accordingly.
This study focuses on temperatures extremes, i.e. the monthly frequency of heat days with daily maximum temperature above 35 °C. The target periods cover two decades on medium-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2100), and the reference period is defined as the last two decades of the historical simulation period (1995-2014). Several zonal and meridional segments were defined over Europe, along which the projected changes are analysed with a special focus on sea cover, continental, and topography effects. Furthermore, the consequences of different scenarios are also compared. The results clearly show that greater radiative forcing change implies more severe health effects via the more frequent heat stress events. However, substantial differences can also be identified from south to north as well, as from west to east. The study highlights the differences within the Mediterranean region.
Acknowledgements: Research leading to this study has been supported by the European Climate Fund (G-2309-66801), the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Fund (under grants PD-138023 and K-129162), and the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014).
How to cite: Pongrácz, R., Divinszki, F., and Kis, A.: Analysis of projected changes of heat days frequency within the Mediterranean region using CMIP6 simulations, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-129, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-129, 2024.
The potential increase of heat stress is a major challenge of the 21st century, and the Mediterranean region is especially exposed to this natural hazard due to the anthropogenic global warming. This study evaluates the multi-model and multi-scenario ensemble from global climate model simulations - available from the CMIP6, i.e. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 of the World Climate Research Programme - including four different SSP-RCP scenario pairs (i.e. from immediate rapid mitigation and effective adaptation, SSP1-RCP2.6, to no mitigation with highly challenging adaptation, SSP5-RCP8.5). For this purpose, the Interactive Atlas of the IPCC AR6 Working Group 1 is used, and the geographical differences of climate projections are compared within the Mediterranean region of Europe. The study provides key information so the regional and national adaptation strategies for different socio-economic sectors can be built and/or updated accordingly.
This study focuses on temperatures extremes, i.e. the monthly frequency of heat days with daily maximum temperature above 35 °C. The target periods cover two decades on medium-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2100), and the reference period is defined as the last two decades of the historical simulation period (1995-2014). Several zonal and meridional segments were defined over Europe, along which the projected changes are analysed with a special focus on sea cover, continental, and topography effects. Furthermore, the consequences of different scenarios are also compared. The results clearly show that greater radiative forcing change implies more severe health effects via the more frequent heat stress events. However, substantial differences can also be identified from south to north as well, as from west to east. The study highlights the differences within the Mediterranean region.
Acknowledgements: Research leading to this study has been supported by the European Climate Fund (G-2309-66801), the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Fund (under grants PD-138023 and K-129162), and the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014).
How to cite: Pongrácz, R., Divinszki, F., and Kis, A.: Analysis of projected changes of heat days frequency within the Mediterranean region using CMIP6 simulations, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-129, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-129, 2024.
PL2 – Earth Observation data and techniques for the definition, characterisation, and monitoring of natural hazards
Plinius18-24 | Posters | PL2
How much snow is there across the Mediterranean region?Francesco Avanzi, Hans Lievens, Christian Massari, Lorenzo Alfieri, Fabio Delogu, Lorenzo Campo, Andrea Libertino, Paolo Filippucci, Hamidreza Mosaffa, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Simone Gabellani, and Gabrielle De Lannoy
The seasonal snowpack plays an important role for the water budget of the Mediterranean Sea, but an exact quantification of this contribution is still elusive. This is particularly true if one compares this preliminary understanding with previous work in other semi-arid regions of the world like the western US, where both the scientific community and importantly the water-resources management sector have already achieved consensus estimates on this matter, with snow supplying 30% to 80% of annual runoff. In order to provide such figures for the Mediterranean-Sea region, we developed a 6-year (2015-2021) reanalysis of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) at approximately 1 km resolution and daily granularity for the whole basin of the Mediterranean Sea (Nile excluded). The reanalysis uses ERA5 meteorological data and satellite-based precipitation as input for a snow model, S3M, which then assimilates daily snapshots of snow depth from the C-SNOW Sentinel-1 product. These simulations were validated using in-situ snow depth measurements across the Mediterranean-Sea region. Maps of snow water equivalent from this reanalysis were spatially aggregated to provide a preliminary estimate of central tendencies and standard deviations of SWE for the Mediterranean Sea, as well as an estimate of peak-SWE and snowmelt timing. These estimates demonstrate the added value of remote-sensing products to tackle societally relevant questions in the 21st century.
How to cite: Avanzi, F., Lievens, H., Massari, C., Alfieri, L., Delogu, F., Campo, L., Libertino, A., Filippucci, P., Mosaffa, H., Quintana-Seguí, P., Gabellani, S., and De Lannoy, G.: How much snow is there across the Mediterranean region?, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-24, 2024.
The seasonal snowpack plays an important role for the water budget of the Mediterranean Sea, but an exact quantification of this contribution is still elusive. This is particularly true if one compares this preliminary understanding with previous work in other semi-arid regions of the world like the western US, where both the scientific community and importantly the water-resources management sector have already achieved consensus estimates on this matter, with snow supplying 30% to 80% of annual runoff. In order to provide such figures for the Mediterranean-Sea region, we developed a 6-year (2015-2021) reanalysis of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) at approximately 1 km resolution and daily granularity for the whole basin of the Mediterranean Sea (Nile excluded). The reanalysis uses ERA5 meteorological data and satellite-based precipitation as input for a snow model, S3M, which then assimilates daily snapshots of snow depth from the C-SNOW Sentinel-1 product. These simulations were validated using in-situ snow depth measurements across the Mediterranean-Sea region. Maps of snow water equivalent from this reanalysis were spatially aggregated to provide a preliminary estimate of central tendencies and standard deviations of SWE for the Mediterranean Sea, as well as an estimate of peak-SWE and snowmelt timing. These estimates demonstrate the added value of remote-sensing products to tackle societally relevant questions in the 21st century.
How to cite: Avanzi, F., Lievens, H., Massari, C., Alfieri, L., Delogu, F., Campo, L., Libertino, A., Filippucci, P., Mosaffa, H., Quintana-Seguí, P., Gabellani, S., and De Lannoy, G.: How much snow is there across the Mediterranean region?, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-24, 2024.
Plinius18-39 | Orals | PL2
Satellite-based characterization of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (Medicanes)Giulia Panegrossi, Leo Pio D'Adderio, Paolo Sanò, Daniele Casella, Stefano Sebastianelli, Jean-François Rysman, Stavros Dafis, Mario Marcello Miglieta, Valentina Di Francesca, and Derrick Herndon
Mediterranean cyclones are high-impact weather events that frequently result in devastating floods, storm surges, and windstorms, sometimes leading to casualties. They may exhibit characteristics typical of tropical (or sub-tropical) cyclones (e.g., a warm core, a cloud free eye surrounded by spiraling rain bands around the center, and a closed vortex associated with strong near-surface winds and heavy precipitation). Less frequently, these cyclones undergo transition into a tropical-like cyclone (TLC) during their mature phase, exhibiting at some point during their evolution a deep axisymmetric warm core of diabatic origin (i.e., latent heat release due to air-sea interaction and moist convection). The latter cyclones are generally referred to as Medicanes (Mediterranean Hurricanes). However, the term Medicane is often associated with other types of warm core cyclones, including warm seclusions present in the late stage of extra-tropical cyclones, where the warm core originates from baroclinic processes. The present work presents some recent advancements in the use of satellite passive microwave (PMW) measurements to monitor and to characterize warm core, deep convection and the presence of a closed eye during the cyclone evolution in order to identify the possible transition into TLC. Moreover, all the available scatterometers onboard LEO satellites (MetOp ASCAT and FY-3E WindRAD) are used to monitor the evolution of the surface wind field as the cyclone evolves to the mature stage and its relation to the cyclone intensification. The analysis is carried out for 15 Mediterranean cyclones that occurred in the last 21 years (2003-2023) and reveals that only 9 of them underwent a TLC transition during their mature phase. In particular, the study focuses on three cyclones (i.e., Helios, Juliette, and Daniel) that occurred between February and September 2023. The results indicate that the three cyclones show a very similar evolution during the initial phases, characterized by a dry stratospheric air intrusion followed by the development of a warm anomaly in the low/mid-troposphere around the cyclone center. This phenomenon is clearly driven by baroclinic processes. However, while for Helios the PMW diagnostics do not show deep convection in the warm core region, for both Juliette and Daniel deep convection is identified in the warm core region at the final stage of their mature phase, providing a strong indication that diabatic heating plays a key role in the warm core development. From the analysis, it can be concluded that, while Helios is a warm seclusion, Juliette and Daniel undergo a TLC transition at the final stage of their evolution. This research is an important contribution towards the use of Earth Observation for Medicanes’ definition, within the activities of the ESA MEDICANES project and of the COST Action MedCyclones.
How to cite: Panegrossi, G., D'Adderio, L. P., Sanò, P., Casella, D., Sebastianelli, S., Rysman, J.-F., Dafis, S., Miglieta, M. M., Di Francesca, V., and Herndon, D.: Satellite-based characterization of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (Medicanes), 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-39, 2024.
Mediterranean cyclones are high-impact weather events that frequently result in devastating floods, storm surges, and windstorms, sometimes leading to casualties. They may exhibit characteristics typical of tropical (or sub-tropical) cyclones (e.g., a warm core, a cloud free eye surrounded by spiraling rain bands around the center, and a closed vortex associated with strong near-surface winds and heavy precipitation). Less frequently, these cyclones undergo transition into a tropical-like cyclone (TLC) during their mature phase, exhibiting at some point during their evolution a deep axisymmetric warm core of diabatic origin (i.e., latent heat release due to air-sea interaction and moist convection). The latter cyclones are generally referred to as Medicanes (Mediterranean Hurricanes). However, the term Medicane is often associated with other types of warm core cyclones, including warm seclusions present in the late stage of extra-tropical cyclones, where the warm core originates from baroclinic processes. The present work presents some recent advancements in the use of satellite passive microwave (PMW) measurements to monitor and to characterize warm core, deep convection and the presence of a closed eye during the cyclone evolution in order to identify the possible transition into TLC. Moreover, all the available scatterometers onboard LEO satellites (MetOp ASCAT and FY-3E WindRAD) are used to monitor the evolution of the surface wind field as the cyclone evolves to the mature stage and its relation to the cyclone intensification. The analysis is carried out for 15 Mediterranean cyclones that occurred in the last 21 years (2003-2023) and reveals that only 9 of them underwent a TLC transition during their mature phase. In particular, the study focuses on three cyclones (i.e., Helios, Juliette, and Daniel) that occurred between February and September 2023. The results indicate that the three cyclones show a very similar evolution during the initial phases, characterized by a dry stratospheric air intrusion followed by the development of a warm anomaly in the low/mid-troposphere around the cyclone center. This phenomenon is clearly driven by baroclinic processes. However, while for Helios the PMW diagnostics do not show deep convection in the warm core region, for both Juliette and Daniel deep convection is identified in the warm core region at the final stage of their mature phase, providing a strong indication that diabatic heating plays a key role in the warm core development. From the analysis, it can be concluded that, while Helios is a warm seclusion, Juliette and Daniel undergo a TLC transition at the final stage of their evolution. This research is an important contribution towards the use of Earth Observation for Medicanes’ definition, within the activities of the ESA MEDICANES project and of the COST Action MedCyclones.
How to cite: Panegrossi, G., D'Adderio, L. P., Sanò, P., Casella, D., Sebastianelli, S., Rysman, J.-F., Dafis, S., Miglieta, M. M., Di Francesca, V., and Herndon, D.: Satellite-based characterization of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (Medicanes), 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-39, 2024.
Plinius18-20 | Orals | PL2
Assimilation of WIVERN Doppler data in WRF model for the case study of Medicane IanosStefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Mario Montopoli, Giulia Panegrossi, Cinzia Cambiotti, and Alessandro Battaglia
Accurate weather forecasts are important to our daily lives. Wind, cloud and precipitation belong to the fundamental variables in NWP models. The WIVERN (Wind Velocity Radar Nephoscope) mission (Illingworth et al., 2018), for observing global winds, clouds and precipitation, has the opportunity to be the first space-based mission to provide in-cloud winds. It is currently in the phase A of the European Space Agency (ESA) Earth explorer 11 program and, if demonstrated successful, WIVERN data could be beneficial to enhance NWP performance, to improve our knowledge of weather phenomena, and to validate climate statistics.
In this work, we present an assimilation experiment of the WIVERN Doppler (HLoS; Horizontal winds along the Line of Sight) data for the outstanding case of the Medicane Ianos, occurred in mid September 2020.
To this end, we use the following approach: we run the Medicane Ianos with WRF at 4km horizontal resolution using the ECMWF-EPS (European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast – Ensemble Prediction System) analysis/forecast cycle issued at 12 UTC on 16 September 2020 as initial and boundary conditions. Fifty-one occurrences of the Medicane Ianos (members) are forecast, taking into account for the atmospheric predictability of that day. For all members the trajectory of the Medicane is determined by the minimum surface pressure.
The trajectories are then compared with the reference trajectory determined by the method of Flaounas et al. (2023) that makes use of ERA5 reanalysis and the best member among the 51 WRF simulations is determined. The best member is that minimizing the spatial error compared to the reference trajectory. WIVERN pseudo-observations are then generated for the best member using the Wivern simulator (Battaglia et al., 2022). Pseudo-observations are then assimilated into the WRF model every 3h using the 3DVar scheme of Federico (2013). Results show a positive impact of the data assimilation on the simulation of the Ianos trajectory. The distance between the simulations assimilating HLoS and the best trajectory are more than halved compared to the control forecasts.
Sensitivity tests to the observation error and to the WIVERN revisiting time show that the latter has a much larger impact on the quality of the forecast.
References
Battaglia, A., et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3011-2022.
Federico, S., 2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3563-2013.
Illingworth, A. J., et al., 2018, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0047.1, 1669-1687.
Flaounas, E., et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023
How to cite: Federico, S., Torcasio, R. C., Montopoli, M., Panegrossi, G., Cambiotti, C., and Battaglia, A.: Assimilation of WIVERN Doppler data in WRF model for the case study of Medicane Ianos, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-20, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-20, 2024.
Accurate weather forecasts are important to our daily lives. Wind, cloud and precipitation belong to the fundamental variables in NWP models. The WIVERN (Wind Velocity Radar Nephoscope) mission (Illingworth et al., 2018), for observing global winds, clouds and precipitation, has the opportunity to be the first space-based mission to provide in-cloud winds. It is currently in the phase A of the European Space Agency (ESA) Earth explorer 11 program and, if demonstrated successful, WIVERN data could be beneficial to enhance NWP performance, to improve our knowledge of weather phenomena, and to validate climate statistics.
In this work, we present an assimilation experiment of the WIVERN Doppler (HLoS; Horizontal winds along the Line of Sight) data for the outstanding case of the Medicane Ianos, occurred in mid September 2020.
To this end, we use the following approach: we run the Medicane Ianos with WRF at 4km horizontal resolution using the ECMWF-EPS (European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast – Ensemble Prediction System) analysis/forecast cycle issued at 12 UTC on 16 September 2020 as initial and boundary conditions. Fifty-one occurrences of the Medicane Ianos (members) are forecast, taking into account for the atmospheric predictability of that day. For all members the trajectory of the Medicane is determined by the minimum surface pressure.
The trajectories are then compared with the reference trajectory determined by the method of Flaounas et al. (2023) that makes use of ERA5 reanalysis and the best member among the 51 WRF simulations is determined. The best member is that minimizing the spatial error compared to the reference trajectory. WIVERN pseudo-observations are then generated for the best member using the Wivern simulator (Battaglia et al., 2022). Pseudo-observations are then assimilated into the WRF model every 3h using the 3DVar scheme of Federico (2013). Results show a positive impact of the data assimilation on the simulation of the Ianos trajectory. The distance between the simulations assimilating HLoS and the best trajectory are more than halved compared to the control forecasts.
Sensitivity tests to the observation error and to the WIVERN revisiting time show that the latter has a much larger impact on the quality of the forecast.
References
Battaglia, A., et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3011-2022.
Federico, S., 2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3563-2013.
Illingworth, A. J., et al., 2018, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0047.1, 1669-1687.
Flaounas, E., et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023
How to cite: Federico, S., Torcasio, R. C., Montopoli, M., Panegrossi, G., Cambiotti, C., and Battaglia, A.: Assimilation of WIVERN Doppler data in WRF model for the case study of Medicane Ianos, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-20, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-20, 2024.
Plinius18-25 | Posters | PL2
Effect of cut-off processing parameter on GNSS-ZTD representativeness in extreme weather eventsAlessandra Mascitelli, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Eleonora Aruffo, Piero Chiacchiaretta, Eugenio Realini, Andrea Gatti, Sante Laviola, Stefano Dietrich, Piero Di Carlo, and Stefano Federico
A study of cut-off processing parameter effect on the representativeness of estimated GNSS tropospheric delay in occurrence of extreme weather events was performed. The analysis focuses on the impact due to GNSS observation geometry and its relationship to the type of event experienced. Data were collected by multi-constellation GNSS receivers located in the areas of interest referred to two peculiar case studies: Como Lake, affected by weather events of significant intensity and short duration (i.e. July 25th, 2021) and a sequence of events from Emilia Romagna-Veneto to Tuscany (i.e. August 18th, 2022). Characterisation of the timing and location of the event was performed using lightning from LINET network. Analyses highlight the impact of cut-off setting at different values and show how, in specific applications, an established cut-off value represents a fair trade-off between solution stability and representativeness of the studied event. Therefore, data assimilation into the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) Model of the estimated Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) from GNSS observations with cut-offs at 7 and 30 degrees was performed for both cases. Results show a consistent and substantial impact of the cut-off geometry on the WRF forecast at the short-term (0-6h).
How to cite: Mascitelli, A., Torcasio, R. C., Aruffo, E., Chiacchiaretta, P., Realini, E., Gatti, A., Laviola, S., Dietrich, S., Di Carlo, P., and Federico, S.: Effect of cut-off processing parameter on GNSS-ZTD representativeness in extreme weather events, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-25, 2024.
A study of cut-off processing parameter effect on the representativeness of estimated GNSS tropospheric delay in occurrence of extreme weather events was performed. The analysis focuses on the impact due to GNSS observation geometry and its relationship to the type of event experienced. Data were collected by multi-constellation GNSS receivers located in the areas of interest referred to two peculiar case studies: Como Lake, affected by weather events of significant intensity and short duration (i.e. July 25th, 2021) and a sequence of events from Emilia Romagna-Veneto to Tuscany (i.e. August 18th, 2022). Characterisation of the timing and location of the event was performed using lightning from LINET network. Analyses highlight the impact of cut-off setting at different values and show how, in specific applications, an established cut-off value represents a fair trade-off between solution stability and representativeness of the studied event. Therefore, data assimilation into the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) Model of the estimated Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) from GNSS observations with cut-offs at 7 and 30 degrees was performed for both cases. Results show a consistent and substantial impact of the cut-off geometry on the WRF forecast at the short-term (0-6h).
How to cite: Mascitelli, A., Torcasio, R. C., Aruffo, E., Chiacchiaretta, P., Realini, E., Gatti, A., Laviola, S., Dietrich, S., Di Carlo, P., and Federico, S.: Effect of cut-off processing parameter on GNSS-ZTD representativeness in extreme weather events, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-25, 2024.
Plinius18-23 | Orals | PL2
An example of the combined use of satellite data and models for the analysis of extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean: The September 2019 floods in SpainLivia Leganes, Andrés Navarro, and Francisco Tapiador
Extreme precipitation events pose significant challenges, especially in semi-arid regions where climate change has increased the frequency of such episodes, exacerbating the lack of adequate infrastructure to mitigate their impacts. The integration of satellite data with modeling techniques emerges as a crucial strategy for characterizing and predicting these events effectively. The Spain’s floods in September 2019 serve as a poignant example, resultingin in 7 casualties and 19 million euro in damages. The more affected regions were the Valencian Community, the Region of Murcia, Castilla-La Mancha and Andalusia, with areas in the south of the Community of Madrid also experiencing significant impacts by the end of the episode.
An analysis comparing satellite data with outputs from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and simple hydrological models, alongside direct observations such as METEOSAT data, rain gauges and ground Doppler radars, reinforces the critical role of satellites in managing hydrometeorological events effectively. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory, operational since 2014, and merged satellite estimates have demonstrated remarkable improvements over previous technologies. Additionally, the timely availability of satellite estimates enables near-real-time monitoring of severe hydrometeorological episodes.
While future automation of models remains a goal, current reliance on satellite products such as Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERG) can significantly aid in addressing societal needs. The ultimate objective is to transition from observation-based responses to predictive capabilities, with satellite data playing a central role in this transformation.
How to cite: Leganes, L., Navarro, A., and Tapiador, F.: An example of the combined use of satellite data and models for the analysis of extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean: The September 2019 floods in Spain, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-23, 2024.
Extreme precipitation events pose significant challenges, especially in semi-arid regions where climate change has increased the frequency of such episodes, exacerbating the lack of adequate infrastructure to mitigate their impacts. The integration of satellite data with modeling techniques emerges as a crucial strategy for characterizing and predicting these events effectively. The Spain’s floods in September 2019 serve as a poignant example, resultingin in 7 casualties and 19 million euro in damages. The more affected regions were the Valencian Community, the Region of Murcia, Castilla-La Mancha and Andalusia, with areas in the south of the Community of Madrid also experiencing significant impacts by the end of the episode.
An analysis comparing satellite data with outputs from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and simple hydrological models, alongside direct observations such as METEOSAT data, rain gauges and ground Doppler radars, reinforces the critical role of satellites in managing hydrometeorological events effectively. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory, operational since 2014, and merged satellite estimates have demonstrated remarkable improvements over previous technologies. Additionally, the timely availability of satellite estimates enables near-real-time monitoring of severe hydrometeorological episodes.
While future automation of models remains a goal, current reliance on satellite products such as Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERG) can significantly aid in addressing societal needs. The ultimate objective is to transition from observation-based responses to predictive capabilities, with satellite data playing a central role in this transformation.
How to cite: Leganes, L., Navarro, A., and Tapiador, F.: An example of the combined use of satellite data and models for the analysis of extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean: The September 2019 floods in Spain, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-23, 2024.
Plinius18-40 | Posters | PL2
Two satellite-based methodologies for the automated detection of the center of rotation in Mediterranean tropical-like cyclonesStefano Sebastianelli, Giulia Panegrossi, Leo Pio D'Adderio, Paolo Sanò, Daniele Casella, and Derrick Herndon
Medicanes originate from extra-tropical cyclones undergoing tropical-like cyclone transition during their mature phase, showing characteristics typical of tropical cyclones (TC): a barotropic structure with an axi-symmetric warm core originating from diabatic processes, strong rotation winds, and spiraling rain bands around a nearly cloud-free eye. In analogy with TCs, the surface wind field is useful to characterize Medicanes, as it could give additional information on their evolution. In particular, the radius of maximum wind (RMW) is a key feature for the TC’s intensification evaluation. Following the definition provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the TCs, the RMW is defined as the distance between the band of the strongest winds and the Medicane’s center of rotation. However, an accurate RMW computation is sensitive to the methodology used for the determination of the Medicanes' center of rotation.
In this work we use the near-surface wind field provided by the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) real-aperture radar onboard MetOp satellites. Moreover, to increase the temporal coverage, the Wind Radar (WindRAD) onboard of Feng Yun FY-3E satellite series is also used. For both sensors the surface wind field estimation is related to the roughness of the sea surface through the back-scattered electromagnetic signal. The scatterometer wind field as well as ERA-5 mean sea level pressure (MSLP) field are used as an indication of the Medicanes’ intensification.
The methodology developed to identify the center of rotation (which is often different from the position of the minimum MSLP) is based on the computation of the standard deviation of the horizontal surface wind direction also taking into account the wind speed field. The observations show that closer to the cyclone center the wind direction is highly variable due to the presence of the cyclonic vortex. This results in higher standard deviation’s values and can be considered a reliable feature to identify the cyclone's center. Moreover, since Mediterranean cyclones often exhibit satellite-based phenomenological features typical of TCs we also investigate the applicability of the Automated Rotational Center Hurricane Eye Retrieval (ARCHER) algorithm, developed by the TC group at CIMSS/University of Wisconsin-Madison. ARCHER is widely used as an objective tool to locate the TC’s center of rotation.
The purpose of our work is to compare the two methodologies to better understand their potentialities and limitations in the characterization of the RMW and to relate the evolution of the RMW to the Medicanes' intensification. Several cases of Medicanes that have occurred in the last 10 years are analysed. The results show that both methodologies are more reliable when the Medicane is more organized showing a closed cyclonic structure associated with strong near-surface winds with a quasi-calm area in its center (mature phase), and that in most cases the RMW decreases as the Medicanes intensify. This study indicates that satellite-based monitoring of the RMW could provide useful indication for tracking Medicanes evolution in near-real time. This work is carried out within the ESA project “Earth Observations as a cornerstone to the understanding and prediction of tropical-like cyclone risk in the Mediterranean (MEDICANES)”.
How to cite: Sebastianelli, S., Panegrossi, G., D'Adderio, L. P., Sanò, P., Casella, D., and Herndon, D.: Two satellite-based methodologies for the automated detection of the center of rotation in Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-40, 2024.
Medicanes originate from extra-tropical cyclones undergoing tropical-like cyclone transition during their mature phase, showing characteristics typical of tropical cyclones (TC): a barotropic structure with an axi-symmetric warm core originating from diabatic processes, strong rotation winds, and spiraling rain bands around a nearly cloud-free eye. In analogy with TCs, the surface wind field is useful to characterize Medicanes, as it could give additional information on their evolution. In particular, the radius of maximum wind (RMW) is a key feature for the TC’s intensification evaluation. Following the definition provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the TCs, the RMW is defined as the distance between the band of the strongest winds and the Medicane’s center of rotation. However, an accurate RMW computation is sensitive to the methodology used for the determination of the Medicanes' center of rotation.
In this work we use the near-surface wind field provided by the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) real-aperture radar onboard MetOp satellites. Moreover, to increase the temporal coverage, the Wind Radar (WindRAD) onboard of Feng Yun FY-3E satellite series is also used. For both sensors the surface wind field estimation is related to the roughness of the sea surface through the back-scattered electromagnetic signal. The scatterometer wind field as well as ERA-5 mean sea level pressure (MSLP) field are used as an indication of the Medicanes’ intensification.
The methodology developed to identify the center of rotation (which is often different from the position of the minimum MSLP) is based on the computation of the standard deviation of the horizontal surface wind direction also taking into account the wind speed field. The observations show that closer to the cyclone center the wind direction is highly variable due to the presence of the cyclonic vortex. This results in higher standard deviation’s values and can be considered a reliable feature to identify the cyclone's center. Moreover, since Mediterranean cyclones often exhibit satellite-based phenomenological features typical of TCs we also investigate the applicability of the Automated Rotational Center Hurricane Eye Retrieval (ARCHER) algorithm, developed by the TC group at CIMSS/University of Wisconsin-Madison. ARCHER is widely used as an objective tool to locate the TC’s center of rotation.
The purpose of our work is to compare the two methodologies to better understand their potentialities and limitations in the characterization of the RMW and to relate the evolution of the RMW to the Medicanes' intensification. Several cases of Medicanes that have occurred in the last 10 years are analysed. The results show that both methodologies are more reliable when the Medicane is more organized showing a closed cyclonic structure associated with strong near-surface winds with a quasi-calm area in its center (mature phase), and that in most cases the RMW decreases as the Medicanes intensify. This study indicates that satellite-based monitoring of the RMW could provide useful indication for tracking Medicanes evolution in near-real time. This work is carried out within the ESA project “Earth Observations as a cornerstone to the understanding and prediction of tropical-like cyclone risk in the Mediterranean (MEDICANES)”.
How to cite: Sebastianelli, S., Panegrossi, G., D'Adderio, L. P., Sanò, P., Casella, D., and Herndon, D.: Two satellite-based methodologies for the automated detection of the center of rotation in Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-40, 2024.
Plinius18-75 | Posters | PL2
On a multitemporal analysis of Copernicus Sentinel data for a robust and near-real time mapping of floodsTeodosio Lacava, Raffaele Albano, Meriam Lahsaini, and Arianna Mazzariello
Among the data made available by the European Copernicus Sentinel missions, those acquired by sensors aboard Sentinels 1 and 2 satellites have already proven to be suitable for detecting and monitoring floods, with different capabilities depending on the characteristics of the instrument used. C-band SAR aboard Sentinel 1A and 1B can provide all-day and all-weather information with a spatial resolution of 10 m a sub-weekly temporal resolution (when both satellites are working together), whereas the MultiSpectral Instrument on Sentinels 2A and 2B can provide data only in daytime conditions and in the absence of clouds with a slightly lower spatial resolution (i.e., 20 m) and almost a similar temporal resolution. Nevertheless, their integration may allow for a more accurate and comprehensive investigation of the studied event if adequate data analysis methodologies are used. This study presents a multitemporal approach to map flooded areas using long-term historical series of Sentinel 1 and Sentinel 2 data. Such an approach, based on a preliminary characterization of the expected value of the investigated signal at the pixel level, can allow for robust identification of any signal transients related to the occurrence of statistically significant change within the pixel, such as a different and/or increased water presence due to floods. The Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing system, where all historical data are present and accessible, was used to implement the proposed methodology. In addition to Sentinel 1 and 2 data, all other datasets/tools useful for developing the proposed methodology are already available in GEE, facilitating its implementation and application to the analysis of different flood episodes. The results achieved for a few events that occurred worldwide using each single approach and their integration were compared with flood maps made available by the Copernicus Emergency Monitoring Service system to assess their accuracy. The performance achieved is discussed in this study.
How to cite: Lacava, T., Albano, R., Lahsaini, M., and Mazzariello, A.: On a multitemporal analysis of Copernicus Sentinel data for a robust and near-real time mapping of floods, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-75, 2024.
Among the data made available by the European Copernicus Sentinel missions, those acquired by sensors aboard Sentinels 1 and 2 satellites have already proven to be suitable for detecting and monitoring floods, with different capabilities depending on the characteristics of the instrument used. C-band SAR aboard Sentinel 1A and 1B can provide all-day and all-weather information with a spatial resolution of 10 m a sub-weekly temporal resolution (when both satellites are working together), whereas the MultiSpectral Instrument on Sentinels 2A and 2B can provide data only in daytime conditions and in the absence of clouds with a slightly lower spatial resolution (i.e., 20 m) and almost a similar temporal resolution. Nevertheless, their integration may allow for a more accurate and comprehensive investigation of the studied event if adequate data analysis methodologies are used. This study presents a multitemporal approach to map flooded areas using long-term historical series of Sentinel 1 and Sentinel 2 data. Such an approach, based on a preliminary characterization of the expected value of the investigated signal at the pixel level, can allow for robust identification of any signal transients related to the occurrence of statistically significant change within the pixel, such as a different and/or increased water presence due to floods. The Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing system, where all historical data are present and accessible, was used to implement the proposed methodology. In addition to Sentinel 1 and 2 data, all other datasets/tools useful for developing the proposed methodology are already available in GEE, facilitating its implementation and application to the analysis of different flood episodes. The results achieved for a few events that occurred worldwide using each single approach and their integration were compared with flood maps made available by the Copernicus Emergency Monitoring Service system to assess their accuracy. The performance achieved is discussed in this study.
How to cite: Lacava, T., Albano, R., Lahsaini, M., and Mazzariello, A.: On a multitemporal analysis of Copernicus Sentinel data for a robust and near-real time mapping of floods, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-75, 2024.
Plinius18-44 | Orals | PL2
AI-Driven Predictions: Foreseeing Mediterranean Extreme Weather in a Changing ClimateVeronica Nieves, Javier Martinez-Amaya, and Gustavo Hazel Guerrero-Navarro
The Mediterranean region, recognized as a climate change hotspot, faces increasing and intensity of extreme weather events, posing significant challenges to vulnerable communities. In response we propose a novel artificial intelligence (AI) model designed to predict two distinct extreme weather phenomena in the Mediterranean basin: major Medicanes (across the entire basin) and severe coastal winds (tested in the Valencian Community). Our model employs a hybrid AI framework, adapted from former work on tropical cyclone forecasting rooted in a binary classification method, to enhance forecasting capabilities for these heavily non-linear extreme weather events, especially under rapidly evolving conditions. Our methodology involves analyzing datasets associated with each weather phenomenon, categorizing them into extreme and non-extreme based on the maximum wind speeds. By leveraging infrared satellite imagery and atmospheric reanalysis data, we extract critical features preceding the peak intensity of these events. These features enable the prediction of extreme wind conditions up to two days in advance in both cases. For the Medicanes study, our AI model successfully predicted 65-80% of extreme cases. The predictive accuracy of Western Mediterranean coastal winds averaged a precision of 85% for the region. This innovative and versatile methodology can be adapted to diagnose various severe weather phenomena beyond Medicanes and coastal winds, offering a robust tool for climate change adaptation strategies. Our research contributes to a deeper understanding and better management of nonlinear, climate-influenced weather events in the Mediterranean region.
How to cite: Nieves, V., Martinez-Amaya, J., and Guerrero-Navarro, G. H.: AI-Driven Predictions: Foreseeing Mediterranean Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-44, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-44, 2024.
The Mediterranean region, recognized as a climate change hotspot, faces increasing and intensity of extreme weather events, posing significant challenges to vulnerable communities. In response we propose a novel artificial intelligence (AI) model designed to predict two distinct extreme weather phenomena in the Mediterranean basin: major Medicanes (across the entire basin) and severe coastal winds (tested in the Valencian Community). Our model employs a hybrid AI framework, adapted from former work on tropical cyclone forecasting rooted in a binary classification method, to enhance forecasting capabilities for these heavily non-linear extreme weather events, especially under rapidly evolving conditions. Our methodology involves analyzing datasets associated with each weather phenomenon, categorizing them into extreme and non-extreme based on the maximum wind speeds. By leveraging infrared satellite imagery and atmospheric reanalysis data, we extract critical features preceding the peak intensity of these events. These features enable the prediction of extreme wind conditions up to two days in advance in both cases. For the Medicanes study, our AI model successfully predicted 65-80% of extreme cases. The predictive accuracy of Western Mediterranean coastal winds averaged a precision of 85% for the region. This innovative and versatile methodology can be adapted to diagnose various severe weather phenomena beyond Medicanes and coastal winds, offering a robust tool for climate change adaptation strategies. Our research contributes to a deeper understanding and better management of nonlinear, climate-influenced weather events in the Mediterranean region.
How to cite: Nieves, V., Martinez-Amaya, J., and Guerrero-Navarro, G. H.: AI-Driven Predictions: Foreseeing Mediterranean Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-44, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-44, 2024.
Plinius18-128 | Orals | PL2
High Spatiotemporal Resolution Determination of the Urban Heat Island in Rome Using Satellite LST Measurements and In Situ Air Temperature DataAndrea Cecilia, Giampietro Casasanta, Igor Petenko, Marianna Conte, Alessandro Conidi, and Stefania Argentini
Air temperature (Ta) plays a crucial role in numerous applications, including studies on physical stress conditions and understanding phenomena such as urban heat island (UHI). Due to the increasing frequency of summer heat waves caused by climate change, the UHI, which in itself leads to a significant rise in nighttime temperatures in cities, can cause extreme physical discomfort for humans, especially during these periods. These heat waves, like heavy rains and strong winds, belong to the category of extreme weather phenomena, and combined with the UHI, they can lead to critical conditions in cities during the summer. For this reason, it is necessary to study and accurately characterize the UHI phenomenon. This study employs innovative techniques to achieve this goal, also with a view to studying mitigation strategies to address increasingly critical summer conditions in cities.
Ta measurements, acquired from in situ sensors often distributed unevenly, are limited in describing the spatial temperature field pattern. On the other hand, land surface temperature measurements (LST) obtained from geostationary satellites provide a more detailed spatial overview, but represent a different variable. In this work, a method based on machine learning algorithms is presented for converting LST detected from geostationary satellites MSG, into air temperature. To perform the conversion, a gradient boosting algorithm, which is part of the tree-structured family of machine learning algorithms, was implemented. The method is applied to LST and Ta data available for the city of Rome (Italy) during the summers of 2019 and 2020. The Ta data are sourced from 17 weather stations, predominantly consisting of amateur stations whose quality has been verified. Using predictive variables such as instantaneous LST and with delays ranging from 1 to 4 hours, along with other parameters like altitude, imperviousness, land cover, tree cover, grassland, NDVI, and temporal parameters such as time of day, Ta was estimated, designated as the target variable, at points where no in situ measurement sensors are available. The Ta predicted by the model exhibits an average error of 1.2°C during the daytime and 0.8°C at night. This model output has improved the accuracy and spatial resolution of temperature pattern analysis across the city of Rome, compared to analyses based solely on in situ measurements. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal pattern of the UHI, which can now be measured at high resolution, aligns well with the expected pattern.
How to cite: Cecilia, A., Casasanta, G., Petenko, I., Conte, M., Conidi, A., and Argentini, S.: High Spatiotemporal Resolution Determination of the Urban Heat Island in Rome Using Satellite LST Measurements and In Situ Air Temperature Data, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-128, 2024.
Air temperature (Ta) plays a crucial role in numerous applications, including studies on physical stress conditions and understanding phenomena such as urban heat island (UHI). Due to the increasing frequency of summer heat waves caused by climate change, the UHI, which in itself leads to a significant rise in nighttime temperatures in cities, can cause extreme physical discomfort for humans, especially during these periods. These heat waves, like heavy rains and strong winds, belong to the category of extreme weather phenomena, and combined with the UHI, they can lead to critical conditions in cities during the summer. For this reason, it is necessary to study and accurately characterize the UHI phenomenon. This study employs innovative techniques to achieve this goal, also with a view to studying mitigation strategies to address increasingly critical summer conditions in cities.
Ta measurements, acquired from in situ sensors often distributed unevenly, are limited in describing the spatial temperature field pattern. On the other hand, land surface temperature measurements (LST) obtained from geostationary satellites provide a more detailed spatial overview, but represent a different variable. In this work, a method based on machine learning algorithms is presented for converting LST detected from geostationary satellites MSG, into air temperature. To perform the conversion, a gradient boosting algorithm, which is part of the tree-structured family of machine learning algorithms, was implemented. The method is applied to LST and Ta data available for the city of Rome (Italy) during the summers of 2019 and 2020. The Ta data are sourced from 17 weather stations, predominantly consisting of amateur stations whose quality has been verified. Using predictive variables such as instantaneous LST and with delays ranging from 1 to 4 hours, along with other parameters like altitude, imperviousness, land cover, tree cover, grassland, NDVI, and temporal parameters such as time of day, Ta was estimated, designated as the target variable, at points where no in situ measurement sensors are available. The Ta predicted by the model exhibits an average error of 1.2°C during the daytime and 0.8°C at night. This model output has improved the accuracy and spatial resolution of temperature pattern analysis across the city of Rome, compared to analyses based solely on in situ measurements. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal pattern of the UHI, which can now be measured at high resolution, aligns well with the expected pattern.
How to cite: Cecilia, A., Casasanta, G., Petenko, I., Conte, M., Conidi, A., and Argentini, S.: High Spatiotemporal Resolution Determination of the Urban Heat Island in Rome Using Satellite LST Measurements and In Situ Air Temperature Data, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-128, 2024.
Plinius18-102 | Posters | PL2
Effective estimation of Tsunami Coastal Impacts based on Tsunami Inventories, Satellite Imagery and Inundation ZoningMarilia Gogou, Spyridon Mavroulis, Niki Evelpidou, Dimitris Stagonas, and Efthimis Lekkas
Simulation models are used to calculate the tsunami wave propagation and ultimately the tsunami height at shoreline and run-up. In recent years, several researchers are working on improving the output of these simulations. Although it could be characterized as accurate, both the difficulty of collecting data and calculating sub-scenarios, the high number of factors controlling tsunami properties, and the fact that the output will only be for a very specific tsunami scenario, make this process difficult and time-consuming. Furthermore, a difficulty has been noted in disseminating the related information to the general public and its final acceptance by Civil Protection agencies for further implementation of relevant risk reduction measures as the results refer to the occurrence of a rare scenario without detailed indication of the possible impacts on individual coastal areas.
In the context of this research, a new methodology for calculating coastal impacts from tsunami is presented. It groups a large number of scenarios of tsunami generation and evolution according to the final rup-up and aims to highlight the possible impacts on the coastal zone according to the tsunami intensity. It is based on the compilation of a tsunami inventory comprising historical and recent events that have affected the study area, without taking into account a single tsunami case. The proposed methodology results in the tsunami inundation zoning of the studied coastal area based on already generated events.
Subsequently, using satellite imagery, a highly detailed analysis of significant buildings and critical infrastructure located within the inundated coastal zone is carried out along with a classification of the potential impacts into 5 main categories comprising: (i) moving objects, (ii) infrastructure, (iii) buildings, (iv) natural environment and (v) population, a classification proposed within the Integrated Tsunami Intensity Scale ITIS2012.
This methodology can contribute to the adoption of measures to effectively mitigate tsunami impacts on the built environment, resilience and sustainability of coastal infrastructure, to the development of safer spatial and urban planning and to a precise estimation of economic losses from coastal inundation. In addition, it is an important tool for operational planning, in particular for the selection and operation of emergency sites in the coastal zone, the preparation of tsunami contingency plans, and the implementation of actions to increase the operational preparedness of Civil Protection agencies and the awareness of the general population and its special groups (students, volunteers, elderly and disabled people, etc.) about tsunamis and their impacts.
How to cite: Gogou, M., Mavroulis, S., Evelpidou, N., Stagonas, D., and Lekkas, E.: Effective estimation of Tsunami Coastal Impacts based on Tsunami Inventories, Satellite Imagery and Inundation Zoning, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-102, 2024.
Simulation models are used to calculate the tsunami wave propagation and ultimately the tsunami height at shoreline and run-up. In recent years, several researchers are working on improving the output of these simulations. Although it could be characterized as accurate, both the difficulty of collecting data and calculating sub-scenarios, the high number of factors controlling tsunami properties, and the fact that the output will only be for a very specific tsunami scenario, make this process difficult and time-consuming. Furthermore, a difficulty has been noted in disseminating the related information to the general public and its final acceptance by Civil Protection agencies for further implementation of relevant risk reduction measures as the results refer to the occurrence of a rare scenario without detailed indication of the possible impacts on individual coastal areas.
In the context of this research, a new methodology for calculating coastal impacts from tsunami is presented. It groups a large number of scenarios of tsunami generation and evolution according to the final rup-up and aims to highlight the possible impacts on the coastal zone according to the tsunami intensity. It is based on the compilation of a tsunami inventory comprising historical and recent events that have affected the study area, without taking into account a single tsunami case. The proposed methodology results in the tsunami inundation zoning of the studied coastal area based on already generated events.
Subsequently, using satellite imagery, a highly detailed analysis of significant buildings and critical infrastructure located within the inundated coastal zone is carried out along with a classification of the potential impacts into 5 main categories comprising: (i) moving objects, (ii) infrastructure, (iii) buildings, (iv) natural environment and (v) population, a classification proposed within the Integrated Tsunami Intensity Scale ITIS2012.
This methodology can contribute to the adoption of measures to effectively mitigate tsunami impacts on the built environment, resilience and sustainability of coastal infrastructure, to the development of safer spatial and urban planning and to a precise estimation of economic losses from coastal inundation. In addition, it is an important tool for operational planning, in particular for the selection and operation of emergency sites in the coastal zone, the preparation of tsunami contingency plans, and the implementation of actions to increase the operational preparedness of Civil Protection agencies and the awareness of the general population and its special groups (students, volunteers, elderly and disabled people, etc.) about tsunamis and their impacts.
How to cite: Gogou, M., Mavroulis, S., Evelpidou, N., Stagonas, D., and Lekkas, E.: Effective estimation of Tsunami Coastal Impacts based on Tsunami Inventories, Satellite Imagery and Inundation Zoning, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-102, 2024.
Plinius18-140 | Posters | PL2
Evaluation of Tracking Methods for Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones using satellite observations: A Comparative Study Using the Generation Index and Mean Sea Level PressureMiriam Saraceni, Leo Pio D'Adderio, Lorenzo Silvestri, Giulia Panegrossi, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones or “Medicanes” tracking is a crucial aspect of understanding and predicting these rare meteorological phenomena. In this study, we aimed to evaluate and compare two tracking methods based on the genesis index (GEN) and mean sea level pressure. The GEN index, initially developed for tropical cyclones (Emanuel and Nolan, 2004), integrates various meteorological parameters, including the idealized maximum wind speed or Potential Intensity (PI), low-tropospheric vorticity, mid-tropospheric relative humidity, and deep-layer wind shear. While this index has shown promises in the literature, for tropical cyclones (Emanuel and Nolan, 2004), but also in synthetic generation of medicane tracks for climatological studies over the Mediterranean (Romero and Emanuel, 2013), its performance in tracking tropical-like cyclones and its comparison to the the most common tracking method remains uncertain. Our analysis is carried out on a subset of seven documented medicane cases from 2014 to 2021, focusing on those exhibiting warm-core characteristics in the satellite observations (Panegrossi et al 2023). Using ERA5 reanalysis data, we tracked these medicanes with two methods, one based on the tracking of minimum mean sea level pressure, and one based on the tracking of maximum GEN index values and compared the results against the reference track as obtained by combination of different tracking methods (Flaounas et al., 2023). The information about the warm core center provided by passive microwave radiometers is used as reference. Our findings reveal that while the GEN index tracking method presents greater RMSE than the mean sea level pressure tracking method compared to the reference, it demonstrates improved performance in capturing intense phases of cyclones, particularly when these cyclones exhibit deep warm core characteristics for ERA5 as evidenced by means of the ERA5-based Hart Parameters (Hart, 2003). We observed that initial phases of cyclone development pose greater challenges for both tracking methods, suggesting higher uncertainty in ERA5 reanalysis center location during early cyclogenesis stages. Our study provides valuable insights into medicane tracking methodologies and highlights the need for continued refinement and validation using satellite observations, particularly in the context of ERA5 reanalysis data. Further research efforts are warranted to optimize tracking methods, especially in the early development phase, and improve our understanding of medicane dynamics, ultimately enhancing forecast accuracy and preparedness for these impactful weather events in the Mediterranean region.
References:
Emanuel K.A. and D. S Nolan. Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system. In 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, pages 240–241, 2004.
Romero R. and K.A. Emanuel. Medicane risk in a changing climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(12):5992–6001, 2013.
Panegrossi G., at el.. Warm core and deep convection in medicanes: A passive microwave-based investigation. Remote Sensing, 15(11):2838, 2023.
HART, R. E. A cyclone phase space derived from thermal wind and thermal asymmetry. Monthly weather review, 131.4: 585-616,2003.
Flaounas E. et al., A composite approach to produce reference datasets for extratropical cyclone tracks: application to Mediterranean cyclones. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 4, 639-661, 2023.
How to cite: Saraceni, M., D'Adderio, L. P., Silvestri, L., Panegrossi, G., and Bongioannini Cerlini, P.: Evaluation of Tracking Methods for Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones using satellite observations: A Comparative Study Using the Generation Index and Mean Sea Level Pressure, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-140, 2024.
Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones or “Medicanes” tracking is a crucial aspect of understanding and predicting these rare meteorological phenomena. In this study, we aimed to evaluate and compare two tracking methods based on the genesis index (GEN) and mean sea level pressure. The GEN index, initially developed for tropical cyclones (Emanuel and Nolan, 2004), integrates various meteorological parameters, including the idealized maximum wind speed or Potential Intensity (PI), low-tropospheric vorticity, mid-tropospheric relative humidity, and deep-layer wind shear. While this index has shown promises in the literature, for tropical cyclones (Emanuel and Nolan, 2004), but also in synthetic generation of medicane tracks for climatological studies over the Mediterranean (Romero and Emanuel, 2013), its performance in tracking tropical-like cyclones and its comparison to the the most common tracking method remains uncertain. Our analysis is carried out on a subset of seven documented medicane cases from 2014 to 2021, focusing on those exhibiting warm-core characteristics in the satellite observations (Panegrossi et al 2023). Using ERA5 reanalysis data, we tracked these medicanes with two methods, one based on the tracking of minimum mean sea level pressure, and one based on the tracking of maximum GEN index values and compared the results against the reference track as obtained by combination of different tracking methods (Flaounas et al., 2023). The information about the warm core center provided by passive microwave radiometers is used as reference. Our findings reveal that while the GEN index tracking method presents greater RMSE than the mean sea level pressure tracking method compared to the reference, it demonstrates improved performance in capturing intense phases of cyclones, particularly when these cyclones exhibit deep warm core characteristics for ERA5 as evidenced by means of the ERA5-based Hart Parameters (Hart, 2003). We observed that initial phases of cyclone development pose greater challenges for both tracking methods, suggesting higher uncertainty in ERA5 reanalysis center location during early cyclogenesis stages. Our study provides valuable insights into medicane tracking methodologies and highlights the need for continued refinement and validation using satellite observations, particularly in the context of ERA5 reanalysis data. Further research efforts are warranted to optimize tracking methods, especially in the early development phase, and improve our understanding of medicane dynamics, ultimately enhancing forecast accuracy and preparedness for these impactful weather events in the Mediterranean region.
References:
Emanuel K.A. and D. S Nolan. Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system. In 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, pages 240–241, 2004.
Romero R. and K.A. Emanuel. Medicane risk in a changing climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(12):5992–6001, 2013.
Panegrossi G., at el.. Warm core and deep convection in medicanes: A passive microwave-based investigation. Remote Sensing, 15(11):2838, 2023.
HART, R. E. A cyclone phase space derived from thermal wind and thermal asymmetry. Monthly weather review, 131.4: 585-616,2003.
Flaounas E. et al., A composite approach to produce reference datasets for extratropical cyclone tracks: application to Mediterranean cyclones. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 4, 639-661, 2023.
How to cite: Saraceni, M., D'Adderio, L. P., Silvestri, L., Panegrossi, G., and Bongioannini Cerlini, P.: Evaluation of Tracking Methods for Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones using satellite observations: A Comparative Study Using the Generation Index and Mean Sea Level Pressure, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-140, 2024.
Plinius18-16 | Orals | PL2
Spatial contribution to enhance early warning solutions for adapting to climate risksLahache Guillaume and Roumagnac Alix
The extreme climatic events are increasing worldwide and are becoming more and more recurrent. It is becoming urgent to take action to reduce them. The Mediterranean region is one of the most affected areas by the effects of climate change. The recent events in France, Spain, Greece, Turkey or even Libya reflect the violence of hydro-meteorological phenomena due in part to the rising sea temperatures. To limit the occurrence of such events, it is necessary to have some feedback. PREDICT uses post-event spatial imaging techniques such as rapid mapping to obtains geospatial data in just a few hours after the event. This permits to manage and document the consequences of such events.
Furthermore, PREDICT has been developing a program called COSPARIN (COntribution du SPAtial à la gestion du Risque INondation) for few years now, with European Space Agency (ESA) and the National Centre of Spatial studies (CNES) approval. The main goal of this program is to better understand and monitor extreme events before, during and after their occurrence. This relies on an innovative method based on the use of the most recent satellite data available as well as algorithms and artificial intelligence to establish a global estimation of precipitations and an estimation of potential flooding areas.
To improve forecasting and deploy early warning systems, Europe has set up the HORIZON program which includes a new project called GOBEYOND (GeO and weather multi-hazard impact Based Early warning and response systems supporting rapid deploYment of first respONders in EU and beyond). The aim of this project is to improve existing tools and methods by designing two platforms of Multi Risk Impact-based Early Warning System (MR-IEWS) for Europe and Mediterranean area (North Africa included). This draws on all available data, including COSPARIN satellite data, to forecast hydro-meteorological risks (floods, storms, heatwaves) and geological risks (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis). Also, this aims to promote rapid and effective operational response by those in charge of safety and to move from simple hazard forecasting to risk forecasting by taking vulnerability into account.
Keywords: Climate change, Spatial data, Forecast, Innovation
How to cite: Guillaume, L. and Alix, R.: Spatial contribution to enhance early warning solutions for adapting to climate risks, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-16, 2024.
The extreme climatic events are increasing worldwide and are becoming more and more recurrent. It is becoming urgent to take action to reduce them. The Mediterranean region is one of the most affected areas by the effects of climate change. The recent events in France, Spain, Greece, Turkey or even Libya reflect the violence of hydro-meteorological phenomena due in part to the rising sea temperatures. To limit the occurrence of such events, it is necessary to have some feedback. PREDICT uses post-event spatial imaging techniques such as rapid mapping to obtains geospatial data in just a few hours after the event. This permits to manage and document the consequences of such events.
Furthermore, PREDICT has been developing a program called COSPARIN (COntribution du SPAtial à la gestion du Risque INondation) for few years now, with European Space Agency (ESA) and the National Centre of Spatial studies (CNES) approval. The main goal of this program is to better understand and monitor extreme events before, during and after their occurrence. This relies on an innovative method based on the use of the most recent satellite data available as well as algorithms and artificial intelligence to establish a global estimation of precipitations and an estimation of potential flooding areas.
To improve forecasting and deploy early warning systems, Europe has set up the HORIZON program which includes a new project called GOBEYOND (GeO and weather multi-hazard impact Based Early warning and response systems supporting rapid deploYment of first respONders in EU and beyond). The aim of this project is to improve existing tools and methods by designing two platforms of Multi Risk Impact-based Early Warning System (MR-IEWS) for Europe and Mediterranean area (North Africa included). This draws on all available data, including COSPARIN satellite data, to forecast hydro-meteorological risks (floods, storms, heatwaves) and geological risks (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis). Also, this aims to promote rapid and effective operational response by those in charge of safety and to move from simple hazard forecasting to risk forecasting by taking vulnerability into account.
Keywords: Climate change, Spatial data, Forecast, Innovation
How to cite: Guillaume, L. and Alix, R.: Spatial contribution to enhance early warning solutions for adapting to climate risks, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-16, 2024.
Plinius18-9 | Orals | PL2
Combining hydrological modeling and satellite observation to estimate the hydrological regime of non-perennial riversNikolaos Nikolaidis, Maria Lilli, Antonia Maragkaki, Carmen Cavallo, Giammarco Manfreda, Maria Nicolina Papa, and Paolo Vezza
Accurate mapping and classification of non-perennial rivers (NPRs) is currently not available. However, in EU Member states, the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000) requires continuous measurements or modeling of the natural flow rate in all water bodies. Recent studies have shown that the use of multispectral satellite imagery can effectively provide observations of flow or non-flow conditions with temporal resolution of about 5 days and limited to sections sufficiently wide (greater than around 30 m) and without vegetation cover. In addition, areas and periods with high cloud cover can lead to limitations on the availability of satellite imagery. On the other hand, the hydrological models require a large amount of data for the simulation of the water cycle in basins. The lack of gauging stations – typical condition for NPRs - for calibrating the models, and the fact that most of the models are constructed with reference to perennial rivers, make them unsuitable for simulating the hydrological regime of temporary waterbodies. Within the framework of the RIVERTEMP project [Erasmus+ 2022-1-IT02-KA220-HED-000086223], a methodology was created for combining hydrological modeling and satellite monitoring for determining the hydrological status of NPRs, using Keritis river basin (Chania, Greece) as a case study in the period 2019-2021. The analysis of the satellite images showed that in 69.5% of the observations the status of Keritis is “flowing” while in 30.5% is “ponding”. We used hydrological modeling to simulate river flows, then we calibrated the model by comparison with satellite observations and successively filled the date gaps of satellites. The comparison between satellite classification and modeled daily flowrate allowed the extraction of significant flow rate values, then used as threshold values to foresee the hydrological condition. This analysis showed that 59.6% of the results characterize the status of Keritis as “flowing”, 37% as “ponding” and 3.4% as "dry". The research results show that classified satellite data can be used to validate the prediction of hydrological models and, in turn, the results of hydrological model simulations can be used for the estimation of the hydrological conditions of NPRs when and where satellite images are not available.
How to cite: Nikolaidis, N., Lilli, M., Maragkaki, A., Cavallo, C., Manfreda, G., Papa, M. N., and Vezza, P.: Combining hydrological modeling and satellite observation to estimate the hydrological regime of non-perennial rivers, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-9, 2024.
Accurate mapping and classification of non-perennial rivers (NPRs) is currently not available. However, in EU Member states, the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000) requires continuous measurements or modeling of the natural flow rate in all water bodies. Recent studies have shown that the use of multispectral satellite imagery can effectively provide observations of flow or non-flow conditions with temporal resolution of about 5 days and limited to sections sufficiently wide (greater than around 30 m) and without vegetation cover. In addition, areas and periods with high cloud cover can lead to limitations on the availability of satellite imagery. On the other hand, the hydrological models require a large amount of data for the simulation of the water cycle in basins. The lack of gauging stations – typical condition for NPRs - for calibrating the models, and the fact that most of the models are constructed with reference to perennial rivers, make them unsuitable for simulating the hydrological regime of temporary waterbodies. Within the framework of the RIVERTEMP project [Erasmus+ 2022-1-IT02-KA220-HED-000086223], a methodology was created for combining hydrological modeling and satellite monitoring for determining the hydrological status of NPRs, using Keritis river basin (Chania, Greece) as a case study in the period 2019-2021. The analysis of the satellite images showed that in 69.5% of the observations the status of Keritis is “flowing” while in 30.5% is “ponding”. We used hydrological modeling to simulate river flows, then we calibrated the model by comparison with satellite observations and successively filled the date gaps of satellites. The comparison between satellite classification and modeled daily flowrate allowed the extraction of significant flow rate values, then used as threshold values to foresee the hydrological condition. This analysis showed that 59.6% of the results characterize the status of Keritis as “flowing”, 37% as “ponding” and 3.4% as "dry". The research results show that classified satellite data can be used to validate the prediction of hydrological models and, in turn, the results of hydrological model simulations can be used for the estimation of the hydrological conditions of NPRs when and where satellite images are not available.
How to cite: Nikolaidis, N., Lilli, M., Maragkaki, A., Cavallo, C., Manfreda, G., Papa, M. N., and Vezza, P.: Combining hydrological modeling and satellite observation to estimate the hydrological regime of non-perennial rivers, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-9, 2024.
Plinius18-28 | Orals | PL2
Towards an operational, multi-variable, and real-time water scarcity data platform for the Italian Civil Protection DepartmentFrancesco Avanzi, Edoardo Cremonese, Michel isabellon, Luca Trotter, Luca Pulvirenti, Luca Cenci, Giuseppe Squicciarino, Tessa Maurer, Simone Gabellani, Andrea Duro, Emanuela Campione, Silvia Puca, Mario Barbani, Andrea Gollini, Lauro Rossi, and Luca Ferraris
Since early 2022, Italy has been experiencing a multi-year drought going well beyond a mere precipitation deficit to include a snow deficit, negative soil moisture anomalies, significant streamflow lows, and considerable impacts on various sectors. In the wake of this event, CIMA Research Foundation is working with the Italian Civil Protection Department to establish a real-time, multi-variable and operational water scarcity data platform for real-world applications. These analyses provide monthly snapshots of the following variables: temperature anomaly, Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Soil Moisture Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Snow-Water-Equivalent deficit, and anomalies of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation. All indices are computed at monthly resolution and are spatially explicit, with varying spatial resolutions up to a maximum of 1 km. In collaboration with the Italian Civil Protection Department, a bulletin is composed every month to translate these indices into decision-relevant information, such as the percentage of the Italian territory that is in a specific drought level every month. Future steps are the inclusion of near real-time, satellite-based information on water reservoir areas and extents for various case studies across the country.
How to cite: Avanzi, F., Cremonese, E., isabellon, M., Trotter, L., Pulvirenti, L., Cenci, L., Squicciarino, G., Maurer, T., Gabellani, S., Duro, A., Campione, E., Puca, S., Barbani, M., Gollini, A., Rossi, L., and Ferraris, L.: Towards an operational, multi-variable, and real-time water scarcity data platform for the Italian Civil Protection Department , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-28, 2024.
Since early 2022, Italy has been experiencing a multi-year drought going well beyond a mere precipitation deficit to include a snow deficit, negative soil moisture anomalies, significant streamflow lows, and considerable impacts on various sectors. In the wake of this event, CIMA Research Foundation is working with the Italian Civil Protection Department to establish a real-time, multi-variable and operational water scarcity data platform for real-world applications. These analyses provide monthly snapshots of the following variables: temperature anomaly, Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Soil Moisture Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Snow-Water-Equivalent deficit, and anomalies of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation. All indices are computed at monthly resolution and are spatially explicit, with varying spatial resolutions up to a maximum of 1 km. In collaboration with the Italian Civil Protection Department, a bulletin is composed every month to translate these indices into decision-relevant information, such as the percentage of the Italian territory that is in a specific drought level every month. Future steps are the inclusion of near real-time, satellite-based information on water reservoir areas and extents for various case studies across the country.
How to cite: Avanzi, F., Cremonese, E., isabellon, M., Trotter, L., Pulvirenti, L., Cenci, L., Squicciarino, G., Maurer, T., Gabellani, S., Duro, A., Campione, E., Puca, S., Barbani, M., Gollini, A., Rossi, L., and Ferraris, L.: Towards an operational, multi-variable, and real-time water scarcity data platform for the Italian Civil Protection Department , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-28, 2024.
Plinius18-15 | Orals | PL2
Rock fall susceptibility assessment at Caminito del Rey, Málaga, SpainJorge P. Galve, Roberto Sarro, José Luis Pérez-García, Alejandro Ruiz-Fuentes, José Miguel Gómez-López, Paula S. Jerez-Longres, Monica Martínez-Corbella, Adrian Riquelme, Rosa M. Mateos, and José Miguel Azañón
El Caminito del Rey in Malaga (Spain) is a popular hiking trail known for its dramatic landscapes and towering cliffs. These cliffs, reaching up to 700 meters, are prone to rockfalls, with significant incidents reported in 2022 that damaged the pathway and blocked a segment of the exit path. This study focuses on identifying parts of the Caminito most at risk from these rockfalls and introduces a step-by-step method for assessing this hazard. Our approach begins with creating a detailed 3D digital model of the Caminito, which serves as the foundation for our susceptibility assessment. Next, we collect extensive data on the types of rocks that make up the cliffs—primarily limestone and conglomerate. This data is crucial because the rock type and structure may condition the probability of rock falls occurrence in the cliffs. With the 3D model and rock data, we then simulate potential rockfalls to see where they might impact the pathways. These simulations help us understand which areas are the most exposed to these phenomena. The results of simulations may help in reducing hazard supporting decisions on solutions to decrease the exposure of visitors to rockfalls. This contribution shares the results of our assessment in the Caminito del Rey and discusses how these findings could lead to better ways to prevent rockfalls and make the pathway safer. Our research offers a practical tool for the Caminito managers to better prepare for and prevent rockfalls.
How to cite: Galve, J. P., Sarro, R., Pérez-García, J. L., Ruiz-Fuentes, A., Gómez-López, J. M., Jerez-Longres, P. S., Martínez-Corbella, M., Riquelme, A., Mateos, R. M., and Azañón, J. M.: Rock fall susceptibility assessment at Caminito del Rey, Málaga, Spain, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-15, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-15, 2024.
El Caminito del Rey in Malaga (Spain) is a popular hiking trail known for its dramatic landscapes and towering cliffs. These cliffs, reaching up to 700 meters, are prone to rockfalls, with significant incidents reported in 2022 that damaged the pathway and blocked a segment of the exit path. This study focuses on identifying parts of the Caminito most at risk from these rockfalls and introduces a step-by-step method for assessing this hazard. Our approach begins with creating a detailed 3D digital model of the Caminito, which serves as the foundation for our susceptibility assessment. Next, we collect extensive data on the types of rocks that make up the cliffs—primarily limestone and conglomerate. This data is crucial because the rock type and structure may condition the probability of rock falls occurrence in the cliffs. With the 3D model and rock data, we then simulate potential rockfalls to see where they might impact the pathways. These simulations help us understand which areas are the most exposed to these phenomena. The results of simulations may help in reducing hazard supporting decisions on solutions to decrease the exposure of visitors to rockfalls. This contribution shares the results of our assessment in the Caminito del Rey and discusses how these findings could lead to better ways to prevent rockfalls and make the pathway safer. Our research offers a practical tool for the Caminito managers to better prepare for and prevent rockfalls.
How to cite: Galve, J. P., Sarro, R., Pérez-García, J. L., Ruiz-Fuentes, A., Gómez-López, J. M., Jerez-Longres, P. S., Martínez-Corbella, M., Riquelme, A., Mateos, R. M., and Azañón, J. M.: Rock fall susceptibility assessment at Caminito del Rey, Málaga, Spain, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-15, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-15, 2024.
PL3 – Hydro-geological effects of extreme events (e.g., floods, landslides, erosions, coastal dynamics, storm surges etc.)
Plinius18-60 | Orals | PL3
Impacts of extreme storm and flood events on coastal areas: Data from recent disasters in the Eastern Mediterranean region.Michalis Diakakis, Marilia Gogou, Christos Filis, Spyridon Mavroulis, Andromachi Sarantopoulou, Ioannis Kapris, Emmanuel Vassilakis, Katerina-Navsika Katsetsiadou, Evelina Kotsi, Nafsika Spyrou, Aliki Konsolaki, Eleftheria Stamati, and Efthymis Lekkas
The projected increase in frequency of flood extremes, attributed to climate change, poses a significant threat to coastal regions throughout the Mediterranean. Consequences encompass extensive geomorphological changes, infrastructural degradation, property damage, pollution of the aquatic environment, and other adverse socio-economic impacts, also threating the blue economy—a vital economic driver of the region. Acknowledging the pivotal role of coastal areas as critical nodes for both economic activities and ecologically valuable natural landscapes, it becomes imperative to deepen our understanding of the mechanisms and extents to which extreme flood events can impact these vulnerable coastal zones.
This work focuses on exploring the impacts on the coastline of recent extreme storm events in the Eastern Mediterranean. The study aims to explore and classify the typology of effects, the severity of impacts and examine their spatial distribution as means to contribute to an improved understanding of extreme storm and flooding consequences in the region.
How to cite: Diakakis, M., Gogou, M., Filis, C., Mavroulis, S., Sarantopoulou, A., Kapris, I., Vassilakis, E., Katsetsiadou, K.-N., Kotsi, E., Spyrou, N., Konsolaki, A., Stamati, E., and Lekkas, E.: Impacts of extreme storm and flood events on coastal areas: Data from recent disasters in the Eastern Mediterranean region., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-60, 2024.
The projected increase in frequency of flood extremes, attributed to climate change, poses a significant threat to coastal regions throughout the Mediterranean. Consequences encompass extensive geomorphological changes, infrastructural degradation, property damage, pollution of the aquatic environment, and other adverse socio-economic impacts, also threating the blue economy—a vital economic driver of the region. Acknowledging the pivotal role of coastal areas as critical nodes for both economic activities and ecologically valuable natural landscapes, it becomes imperative to deepen our understanding of the mechanisms and extents to which extreme flood events can impact these vulnerable coastal zones.
This work focuses on exploring the impacts on the coastline of recent extreme storm events in the Eastern Mediterranean. The study aims to explore and classify the typology of effects, the severity of impacts and examine their spatial distribution as means to contribute to an improved understanding of extreme storm and flooding consequences in the region.
How to cite: Diakakis, M., Gogou, M., Filis, C., Mavroulis, S., Sarantopoulou, A., Kapris, I., Vassilakis, E., Katsetsiadou, K.-N., Kotsi, E., Spyrou, N., Konsolaki, A., Stamati, E., and Lekkas, E.: Impacts of extreme storm and flood events on coastal areas: Data from recent disasters in the Eastern Mediterranean region., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-60, 2024.
Plinius18-31 | Posters | PL3
Exploring historical gully dynamics in an agricultural setting in Mediterranean climateGeorge Olivier, Marco Van De Wiel, Bastien Dieppois, and Willem de Clercq
Gully erosion is a significant degradation process affecting land (on-site effects) and water resources (off-site effects) in regions exhibiting a Mediterranean climate. Climate change projections suggest lower mean annual rainfall and higher intensity rainfall events, which could amplify gully erosion processes during the 21st century. Analysing gully erosion over extended periods is essential to understanding better and predicting future gully perturbations and degradation. However, few studies monitor gully evolution on such temporal scales. We analyse long-term (1938-2023) gully morpho-dynamics in a Mediterranean catchment to estimate the impact of climate and land use drivers thereon.
The Sandspruit catchment in the Western Cape of South Africa exhibits a distinct Mediterranean climate. Natural vegetation is sparse, interspersed only between extensive agricultural fields mainly used for dryland agriculture. Four gully networks were analysed using aerial imagery and climate data. Gully changes and land use activities were mapped from the sequential aerial imagery. Climatic variability during the study period was assessed in terms of mean annual rainfall, rainfall intensity derivatives, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycles (ENSO) to identify significant trends and association with gully evolution.
Preliminary results show that human activity is the primary influence on gully evolution. Agricultural intensification increased erosion up to 1938, whereafter mitigation efforts reduced gully sizes up to five times in 29 years. In subsequent years, contraction and expansion were observed. However, contemporary gully erosion since 1999 shows active growth. The increase in activity could be due to a reduction in the efficiency of the ageing mitigation measures but may also be caused by a changing climate. Rainy Day Normal, a rainfall intensity proxy based on mean annual rainfall, shows no distinct trend. However, ENSO cycles coupled with the timing of high-intensity events may play a critical role.
How to cite: Olivier, G., Van De Wiel, M., Dieppois, B., and de Clercq, W.: Exploring historical gully dynamics in an agricultural setting in Mediterranean climate, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-31, 2024.
Gully erosion is a significant degradation process affecting land (on-site effects) and water resources (off-site effects) in regions exhibiting a Mediterranean climate. Climate change projections suggest lower mean annual rainfall and higher intensity rainfall events, which could amplify gully erosion processes during the 21st century. Analysing gully erosion over extended periods is essential to understanding better and predicting future gully perturbations and degradation. However, few studies monitor gully evolution on such temporal scales. We analyse long-term (1938-2023) gully morpho-dynamics in a Mediterranean catchment to estimate the impact of climate and land use drivers thereon.
The Sandspruit catchment in the Western Cape of South Africa exhibits a distinct Mediterranean climate. Natural vegetation is sparse, interspersed only between extensive agricultural fields mainly used for dryland agriculture. Four gully networks were analysed using aerial imagery and climate data. Gully changes and land use activities were mapped from the sequential aerial imagery. Climatic variability during the study period was assessed in terms of mean annual rainfall, rainfall intensity derivatives, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycles (ENSO) to identify significant trends and association with gully evolution.
Preliminary results show that human activity is the primary influence on gully evolution. Agricultural intensification increased erosion up to 1938, whereafter mitigation efforts reduced gully sizes up to five times in 29 years. In subsequent years, contraction and expansion were observed. However, contemporary gully erosion since 1999 shows active growth. The increase in activity could be due to a reduction in the efficiency of the ageing mitigation measures but may also be caused by a changing climate. Rainy Day Normal, a rainfall intensity proxy based on mean annual rainfall, shows no distinct trend. However, ENSO cycles coupled with the timing of high-intensity events may play a critical role.
How to cite: Olivier, G., Van De Wiel, M., Dieppois, B., and de Clercq, W.: Exploring historical gully dynamics in an agricultural setting in Mediterranean climate, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-31, 2024.
Plinius18-76 | Posters | PL3
Ripple effects: analyzing Cascade effects triggered by extreme storms and floods in the Eastern MediterraneanMichalis Diakakis, Andromachi Sarantopoulou, Christos Filis, Spyridon Mavroulis, Marilia Gogou, Ioannis Kapris, Emmanuel Vassilakis, Aliki Konsolaki, and Efthymis Lekkas
The projected increase in the frequency of extreme flood events in the Eastern Mediterranean region signifies profound societal impacts of various types beyond the actual inundated areas and across different sectors. However, the extent and complexity of the various cascade effects remain inadequately understood.
This work focuses on collecting new evidence on the types and extent of these cascade effects drawing on recent and historical flood disasters in the region, in an effort to improve our understanding of the nature, the extent, the propagation mechanisms and the consequences of these far-rearching repercussions, Additionally, the study examines the interplay between various impacts to provide insights useful for enhancing preparedness and response strategies to mitigate the associated risks.
How to cite: Diakakis, M., Sarantopoulou, A., Filis, C., Mavroulis, S., Gogou, M., Kapris, I., Vassilakis, E., Konsolaki, A., and Lekkas, E.: Ripple effects: analyzing Cascade effects triggered by extreme storms and floods in the Eastern Mediterranean, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-76, 2024.
The projected increase in the frequency of extreme flood events in the Eastern Mediterranean region signifies profound societal impacts of various types beyond the actual inundated areas and across different sectors. However, the extent and complexity of the various cascade effects remain inadequately understood.
This work focuses on collecting new evidence on the types and extent of these cascade effects drawing on recent and historical flood disasters in the region, in an effort to improve our understanding of the nature, the extent, the propagation mechanisms and the consequences of these far-rearching repercussions, Additionally, the study examines the interplay between various impacts to provide insights useful for enhancing preparedness and response strategies to mitigate the associated risks.
How to cite: Diakakis, M., Sarantopoulou, A., Filis, C., Mavroulis, S., Gogou, M., Kapris, I., Vassilakis, E., Konsolaki, A., and Lekkas, E.: Ripple effects: analyzing Cascade effects triggered by extreme storms and floods in the Eastern Mediterranean, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-76, 2024.
Plinius18-100 | Orals | PL3
The future of the Portuguese most vulnerable coastal areas under climate change – shoreline evolution and future extreme coastal flooding from downscaled bias corrected ensemblesGil Lemos, Ivana Bosnic, Carlos Antunes, Michalis Vousdoukas, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Miguel Santo, Vanessa Ferreira, and Pedro M. M. Soares
Some of the most disruptive effects of climate change are projected to be felt along the coastlines. The combined effects of future changes in water levels and wave climate along the coastal areas constitute one of the most serious threats to their sustainable evolution, compromising critical infrastructures, resources, ecosystems, and communities. Understanding long-term changes in coastal areas remains challenging, however, due to their multivariate and multi-time-and-space-scale nature. In this study, we propose an innovative methodology for a complete vulnerability assessment of sandy low-lying coastal areas, based on dynamic, ensemble-based projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The effects of sea level rise (SLR) and nearshore wave climate changes on future shoreline evolution are firstly assessed at five key-locations along the Portuguese coastline. Longshore sediment transport (LST) projections are computed, and sedimentary imbalances are quantified. Robust shoreline retreat of up to 300 m is projected, especially along the Portuguese northern and central coastal areas, with continued erosion driven mainly by sediment imbalance and SLR. The projected decrease in future nearshore wave energy is responsible for a slight alleviation in erosion trends, up to 6.33%, whereas the increase of northerly incoming waves is expected to lead to northward beach rotations along western Mainland Portugal. The resulting shoreline evolution is responsible for the loss of up to 0.786 km2 of dry land by 2100 along the 14 kilometers of analyzed coastline. Based on the shoreline projections, new digital terrain models are built for the five key-locations, and future extreme total water levels are obtained through a probabilistic approach, defining wave events considering high wave energy thresholds in a changing climate. The results reveal that extreme coastal flooding is projected across several urbanized sections along the Portuguese coastline, especially in areas without artificial protection infrastructures. As dune erosion is expected along the sandy stretches, the natural protection against extreme coastal events is projected to be reduced by up to 13.3%, promoting widespread overtopping, leaving populations more exposed. Future projections reveal the episodic flooding of up to 1.47 km2 of land across the five key-locations, threatening households and commercial hubs, besides services and communication routes. Overall, as physical and human losses may increase substantially in the future, our results call for the implementation of adequate coastal management and adaptation plans, strategically defined to withstand changes until 2100 and beyond.
This research has been funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020).
How to cite: Lemos, G., Bosnic, I., Antunes, C., Vousdoukas, M., Mentaschi, L., Santo, M., Ferreira, V., and Soares, P. M. M.: The future of the Portuguese most vulnerable coastal areas under climate change – shoreline evolution and future extreme coastal flooding from downscaled bias corrected ensembles, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-100, 2024.
Some of the most disruptive effects of climate change are projected to be felt along the coastlines. The combined effects of future changes in water levels and wave climate along the coastal areas constitute one of the most serious threats to their sustainable evolution, compromising critical infrastructures, resources, ecosystems, and communities. Understanding long-term changes in coastal areas remains challenging, however, due to their multivariate and multi-time-and-space-scale nature. In this study, we propose an innovative methodology for a complete vulnerability assessment of sandy low-lying coastal areas, based on dynamic, ensemble-based projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The effects of sea level rise (SLR) and nearshore wave climate changes on future shoreline evolution are firstly assessed at five key-locations along the Portuguese coastline. Longshore sediment transport (LST) projections are computed, and sedimentary imbalances are quantified. Robust shoreline retreat of up to 300 m is projected, especially along the Portuguese northern and central coastal areas, with continued erosion driven mainly by sediment imbalance and SLR. The projected decrease in future nearshore wave energy is responsible for a slight alleviation in erosion trends, up to 6.33%, whereas the increase of northerly incoming waves is expected to lead to northward beach rotations along western Mainland Portugal. The resulting shoreline evolution is responsible for the loss of up to 0.786 km2 of dry land by 2100 along the 14 kilometers of analyzed coastline. Based on the shoreline projections, new digital terrain models are built for the five key-locations, and future extreme total water levels are obtained through a probabilistic approach, defining wave events considering high wave energy thresholds in a changing climate. The results reveal that extreme coastal flooding is projected across several urbanized sections along the Portuguese coastline, especially in areas without artificial protection infrastructures. As dune erosion is expected along the sandy stretches, the natural protection against extreme coastal events is projected to be reduced by up to 13.3%, promoting widespread overtopping, leaving populations more exposed. Future projections reveal the episodic flooding of up to 1.47 km2 of land across the five key-locations, threatening households and commercial hubs, besides services and communication routes. Overall, as physical and human losses may increase substantially in the future, our results call for the implementation of adequate coastal management and adaptation plans, strategically defined to withstand changes until 2100 and beyond.
This research has been funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020).
How to cite: Lemos, G., Bosnic, I., Antunes, C., Vousdoukas, M., Mentaschi, L., Santo, M., Ferreira, V., and Soares, P. M. M.: The future of the Portuguese most vulnerable coastal areas under climate change – shoreline evolution and future extreme coastal flooding from downscaled bias corrected ensembles, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-100, 2024.
Plinius18-120 | Orals | PL3
Analysing extreme flood events in the Mediterranean regionIoanna Stamataki, Thomas R. Kjeldsen, Joan Rossello, and Ramtin Sabeti
Understanding and managing the risks associated with extreme hydro-geological events, such as floods, is crucial for the Mediterranean region. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for analysing and integrating sparse data on extreme flood events to enhance future flood risk assessments. By reconstructing historical flood events using limited data sources such as rainfall records, flood marks, visual documentation, and eyewitness testimonies, we aim to develop a robust framework for understanding hydrological responses to extreme weather conditions. By leveraging historical data and advanced modelling techniques, this research contributes to the improved assessment and prediction of hydro-geological risks, ultimately aiding in the development of more resilient infrastructures and communities in the Mediterranean region.
How to cite: Stamataki, I., Kjeldsen, T. R., Rossello, J., and Sabeti, R.: Analysing extreme flood events in the Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-120, 2024.
Understanding and managing the risks associated with extreme hydro-geological events, such as floods, is crucial for the Mediterranean region. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for analysing and integrating sparse data on extreme flood events to enhance future flood risk assessments. By reconstructing historical flood events using limited data sources such as rainfall records, flood marks, visual documentation, and eyewitness testimonies, we aim to develop a robust framework for understanding hydrological responses to extreme weather conditions. By leveraging historical data and advanced modelling techniques, this research contributes to the improved assessment and prediction of hydro-geological risks, ultimately aiding in the development of more resilient infrastructures and communities in the Mediterranean region.
How to cite: Stamataki, I., Kjeldsen, T. R., Rossello, J., and Sabeti, R.: Analysing extreme flood events in the Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-120, 2024.
Plinius18-105 | Posters | PL3
Integrated analysis of sediment connectivity and geomorphic effects of Storm Ciaran in two mountain catchments in Tuscany (Italy).Federica Fiorucci, Stefano Crema, Lorenzo Marchi, Marco Piantini, Jacopo Rocca, Alessandro Sarretta, and Marco Cavalli
Extreme rainfall events over mountain catchments often trigger mass failures on hillslopes and sediment transport along the channel network. Understanding the connection between sediment sources and downstream transfer pathways is crucial in areas where settlements are impacted by hydro-geomorphic processes, to plan effective risk mitigation measures.
From November 2 to 5, 2023, northern Tuscany (Italy) experienced a severe flood due to storm Ciarán, causing landslides and flooding. This disaster led to eight deaths, displaced 300 people, and caused around €1.9 billion in damages.
This study focuses on two adjacent catchments, covering a total area of approximately 35 km2, within the area affected by the storm event. To analyse sediment dynamics at the catchment scale, an integrated approach was devised, encompassing the analysis of high-resolution (0.5 m) satellite imagery combined with the field-based mapping of hillslope instabilities. After the instabilities census, the analysis was integrated with an Index of Connectivity map (created using SedInConnect 2.3 software) to characterize pre-event structural connectivity in both catchments. The integration of these datasets enables the determination of the type, extent, and characteristics of mass movements providing sediments to the channel network, as well as understanding the interaction between sediment transport in the main channel and its morphological modifications. This finding highlights that inventory maps developed soon after extreme events, combined with sediment connectivity data, can provide vital information for future land management and risk mitigation. These insights can help prioritize structural interventions in specific areas to reduce connectivity or disconnect inhabited areas from hydro-geomorphic systems, thereby preventing future damage.
The research is currently funded by the APPARE project within the framework of the Extended Partnership of the main project RETURN of the Italy’s Recovery and Resilience Plan (Next Generation EU). The APPARE project seeks to improve the understanding of flash floods in mountainous and hilly regions. This initiative aims to increase community resilience through better risk planning and management in these areas.
How to cite: Fiorucci, F., Crema, S., Marchi, L., Piantini, M., Rocca, J., Sarretta, A., and Cavalli, M.: Integrated analysis of sediment connectivity and geomorphic effects of Storm Ciaran in two mountain catchments in Tuscany (Italy)., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-105, 2024.
Extreme rainfall events over mountain catchments often trigger mass failures on hillslopes and sediment transport along the channel network. Understanding the connection between sediment sources and downstream transfer pathways is crucial in areas where settlements are impacted by hydro-geomorphic processes, to plan effective risk mitigation measures.
From November 2 to 5, 2023, northern Tuscany (Italy) experienced a severe flood due to storm Ciarán, causing landslides and flooding. This disaster led to eight deaths, displaced 300 people, and caused around €1.9 billion in damages.
This study focuses on two adjacent catchments, covering a total area of approximately 35 km2, within the area affected by the storm event. To analyse sediment dynamics at the catchment scale, an integrated approach was devised, encompassing the analysis of high-resolution (0.5 m) satellite imagery combined with the field-based mapping of hillslope instabilities. After the instabilities census, the analysis was integrated with an Index of Connectivity map (created using SedInConnect 2.3 software) to characterize pre-event structural connectivity in both catchments. The integration of these datasets enables the determination of the type, extent, and characteristics of mass movements providing sediments to the channel network, as well as understanding the interaction between sediment transport in the main channel and its morphological modifications. This finding highlights that inventory maps developed soon after extreme events, combined with sediment connectivity data, can provide vital information for future land management and risk mitigation. These insights can help prioritize structural interventions in specific areas to reduce connectivity or disconnect inhabited areas from hydro-geomorphic systems, thereby preventing future damage.
The research is currently funded by the APPARE project within the framework of the Extended Partnership of the main project RETURN of the Italy’s Recovery and Resilience Plan (Next Generation EU). The APPARE project seeks to improve the understanding of flash floods in mountainous and hilly regions. This initiative aims to increase community resilience through better risk planning and management in these areas.
How to cite: Fiorucci, F., Crema, S., Marchi, L., Piantini, M., Rocca, J., Sarretta, A., and Cavalli, M.: Integrated analysis of sediment connectivity and geomorphic effects of Storm Ciaran in two mountain catchments in Tuscany (Italy)., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-105, 2024.
Plinius18-6 | Orals | PL3
Chronicle of a disaster foretold: The Storm Daniel dam-breaching flood at Derna, LibyaElad Dente, Moshe Armon, and Yuval Shmilovitz
Storm Daniel, the deadliest recorded Mediterranean tropical-like (medicane) storm, led to severe floods in large parts of the eastern-central Mediterranean, including Greece and northern Libya. Extreme rainfall, reaching more than 400 mm day-1, triggered a flash flood in Wadi Derna (Libya)– an ephemeral river with a drainage area of 575 km2 that crosses the city of Derna at its outlet to the Mediterranean Sea. In the 1970s, dams were built in Wadi Derna basin to mitigate flood risks. However, during Storm Daniel, at least two dams were breached by a flash flood that inundated much of the city of Derna and resulted in over 5,000 casualties, thousands of missing persons, and tens of thousands of displaced people. The devastating event was the focus of media coverage for a long time, but many questions with implications for other dammed Mediterranean regions are still open. Here, we focus on three main research questions: (a) How unique and extreme were the storm and meteorological conditions of Storm Daniel? (b) How extreme was the flood? And (c) What could have been the flood outcome if dams hadn't been built upstream in the first place?
To analyze the characteristics of Storm Daniel over Wadi Derna, the catchment’s hydrological response, and the impact of the flood on the city of Derna, we integrate various datasets and models. Satellite-based precipitation estimations (IMERG) were used to quantify spatiotemporal storm properties and the catchment-scale rainfall, which were fed into the KINEROS2-RHEM hydrological model to quantify surface runoff. The modeled flood hydrograph is then fed into a 2D hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) to test three end-member scenarios: (a) dam filling, overflow, and collapse, (b) dam overflow but no collapse, and (c) no dams exist in the wadi. This combination of methods reveals that the peak discharge during the flood was ~1,400 m3 s-1, falling below the expected maximum extreme flood for this region. Based on the total discharge volume, we estimated the return period of the flood as 33-50 years. In the dam-collapse scenario, the populated flooded area is 40% larger and ten-fold more destructive than the no-dam scenario. Given the high variability of precipitation in the Mediterranean and the projected increase in extreme precipitation intensity under climate change, the Wadi Derna flood should serve as a warning sign for other populated areas downstream of dams in similar environments.
How to cite: Dente, E., Armon, M., and Shmilovitz, Y.: Chronicle of a disaster foretold: The Storm Daniel dam-breaching flood at Derna, Libya, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-6, 2024.
Storm Daniel, the deadliest recorded Mediterranean tropical-like (medicane) storm, led to severe floods in large parts of the eastern-central Mediterranean, including Greece and northern Libya. Extreme rainfall, reaching more than 400 mm day-1, triggered a flash flood in Wadi Derna (Libya)– an ephemeral river with a drainage area of 575 km2 that crosses the city of Derna at its outlet to the Mediterranean Sea. In the 1970s, dams were built in Wadi Derna basin to mitigate flood risks. However, during Storm Daniel, at least two dams were breached by a flash flood that inundated much of the city of Derna and resulted in over 5,000 casualties, thousands of missing persons, and tens of thousands of displaced people. The devastating event was the focus of media coverage for a long time, but many questions with implications for other dammed Mediterranean regions are still open. Here, we focus on three main research questions: (a) How unique and extreme were the storm and meteorological conditions of Storm Daniel? (b) How extreme was the flood? And (c) What could have been the flood outcome if dams hadn't been built upstream in the first place?
To analyze the characteristics of Storm Daniel over Wadi Derna, the catchment’s hydrological response, and the impact of the flood on the city of Derna, we integrate various datasets and models. Satellite-based precipitation estimations (IMERG) were used to quantify spatiotemporal storm properties and the catchment-scale rainfall, which were fed into the KINEROS2-RHEM hydrological model to quantify surface runoff. The modeled flood hydrograph is then fed into a 2D hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) to test three end-member scenarios: (a) dam filling, overflow, and collapse, (b) dam overflow but no collapse, and (c) no dams exist in the wadi. This combination of methods reveals that the peak discharge during the flood was ~1,400 m3 s-1, falling below the expected maximum extreme flood for this region. Based on the total discharge volume, we estimated the return period of the flood as 33-50 years. In the dam-collapse scenario, the populated flooded area is 40% larger and ten-fold more destructive than the no-dam scenario. Given the high variability of precipitation in the Mediterranean and the projected increase in extreme precipitation intensity under climate change, the Wadi Derna flood should serve as a warning sign for other populated areas downstream of dams in similar environments.
How to cite: Dente, E., Armon, M., and Shmilovitz, Y.: Chronicle of a disaster foretold: The Storm Daniel dam-breaching flood at Derna, Libya, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-6, 2024.
Plinius18-111 | Posters | PL3
Understanding the impact of climate change on areal reduction factors using convection-permitting modelsPetr Vohnicky, Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Matteo Pesce, and Marco Borga
Areal reduction factors (ARFs) are essential in hydrological modeling as they enable the conversion of point design precipitation into the average design precipitation for a catchment area. This study aims to assess the projected variations in ARFs during precipitation events for different return levels, focusing on the upper Adige River, Italy (Eastern Italian Alps). The study utilizes simulations from the ensemble of convection-permitting climate models (CPMs), which are well-suited for this purpose due to their ability to explicitly represent deep convection and to resolve the mountainous topography. The CPM data, provided by the CORDEX-FPS Convection project at 1-hour temporal resolution and remapped to a common 3 km spatial resolution, cover historical and far-future (2090-2099) time periods under the extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The method applied for estimating the ARFs utilizes gridded precipitation data from CPMs and is based on precipitation quantiles derived from frequency curves. The extreme quantiles are estimated by the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value approach, known for its reduced uncertainty compared to conventional approaches. The ARFs are then calculated as the ratio of extreme quantiles for a selection of events with different duration and return period, which allows the ARF to vary where necessary. Our preliminary results indicate that ARFs for short-duration events are likely to increase in the future, suggesting a potentially larger spatial structure for storms. Additionally, for longer duration storms, ARFs are expected to remain relatively same, although a slight negative trend is observed for higher return period events. These results highlight the importance of considering advanced statistical methods and high-resolution climate models to address emerging challenges in hydrology and climate science.
How to cite: Vohnicky, P., Dallan, E., Marra, F., Fosser, G., Pesce, M., and Borga, M.: Understanding the impact of climate change on areal reduction factors using convection-permitting models, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-111, 2024.
Areal reduction factors (ARFs) are essential in hydrological modeling as they enable the conversion of point design precipitation into the average design precipitation for a catchment area. This study aims to assess the projected variations in ARFs during precipitation events for different return levels, focusing on the upper Adige River, Italy (Eastern Italian Alps). The study utilizes simulations from the ensemble of convection-permitting climate models (CPMs), which are well-suited for this purpose due to their ability to explicitly represent deep convection and to resolve the mountainous topography. The CPM data, provided by the CORDEX-FPS Convection project at 1-hour temporal resolution and remapped to a common 3 km spatial resolution, cover historical and far-future (2090-2099) time periods under the extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The method applied for estimating the ARFs utilizes gridded precipitation data from CPMs and is based on precipitation quantiles derived from frequency curves. The extreme quantiles are estimated by the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value approach, known for its reduced uncertainty compared to conventional approaches. The ARFs are then calculated as the ratio of extreme quantiles for a selection of events with different duration and return period, which allows the ARF to vary where necessary. Our preliminary results indicate that ARFs for short-duration events are likely to increase in the future, suggesting a potentially larger spatial structure for storms. Additionally, for longer duration storms, ARFs are expected to remain relatively same, although a slight negative trend is observed for higher return period events. These results highlight the importance of considering advanced statistical methods and high-resolution climate models to address emerging challenges in hydrology and climate science.
How to cite: Vohnicky, P., Dallan, E., Marra, F., Fosser, G., Pesce, M., and Borga, M.: Understanding the impact of climate change on areal reduction factors using convection-permitting models, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-111, 2024.
Plinius18-137 | Posters | PL3
The Importance of the observation network density in describing spatiotemporal characteristics of events producing urban flooding: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy.Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Nicola Loglisci, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
The rainfall climatology of the Mediterranean region is characterized by high probability of very intense rainfall events with a duration of a few hours or less and a very limited spatial scale. There is also evidence that this probability is increasing due to climate change.
In urban areas, these extreme rainfall events produce floods and pluvial floods, often in very small areas, depending on the physical-geographical layout of the area. It is therefore of paramount importance, in order to adequately model the ground effects and evaluate flash and pluvial flood risk in small urban catchments, to have an adequate monitoring network for rain events that are highly concentrated in space and time.
This research analyses the event of the 27th and 28th August 2023 that occurred in the city of Genoa, Italy, producing local floods in the historical center and surroundings due to the overflow of the sewer system and very small urban catchments. During the event, a maximum of 400 mm of rainfall in 6 hours was recorded in the eastern sector of the historic centre of Genoa.
We combined rainfall observations and estimates from official or “authoritative” networks (rain gauges and meteorological radar) and rain gauge networks inspired by citizen science principles. The analysis of combined observations reveals a spatial variability of the precipitation field at hourly and sub-hourly timescale that cannot be captured by the current spatial density of the authoritative measurement stations even in an area, like that of the Genoa Region, that shows one of the highest raingauge network density of Italy.
Furthermore, the analysis of short-duration annual maximum time series recorded by the authoritative rain gauge network of the Genoa region shows significant differences even at distances of less than 2 km in the average rainfall depth accumulated over a sub-hourly duration.
In conclusion, the results show that, to have a reliable description of urban flooding-producing rainfall events adequate hydrometeorological monitoring is one of the most important aspects. This may help both in correctly evaluate ground effects of occurred events as well as to improve the methods to draw design hyetographs for flood hazard assessment, especially for urban areas. In this perspective, the integration between authoritative and citizen science networks can provide a very interesting solution.
How to cite: Boni, G., Cauteruccio, A., Faccini, F., Loglisci, N., Milelli, M., Paliaga, G., and Parodi, A.: The Importance of the observation network density in describing spatiotemporal characteristics of events producing urban flooding: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-137, 2024.
The rainfall climatology of the Mediterranean region is characterized by high probability of very intense rainfall events with a duration of a few hours or less and a very limited spatial scale. There is also evidence that this probability is increasing due to climate change.
In urban areas, these extreme rainfall events produce floods and pluvial floods, often in very small areas, depending on the physical-geographical layout of the area. It is therefore of paramount importance, in order to adequately model the ground effects and evaluate flash and pluvial flood risk in small urban catchments, to have an adequate monitoring network for rain events that are highly concentrated in space and time.
This research analyses the event of the 27th and 28th August 2023 that occurred in the city of Genoa, Italy, producing local floods in the historical center and surroundings due to the overflow of the sewer system and very small urban catchments. During the event, a maximum of 400 mm of rainfall in 6 hours was recorded in the eastern sector of the historic centre of Genoa.
We combined rainfall observations and estimates from official or “authoritative” networks (rain gauges and meteorological radar) and rain gauge networks inspired by citizen science principles. The analysis of combined observations reveals a spatial variability of the precipitation field at hourly and sub-hourly timescale that cannot be captured by the current spatial density of the authoritative measurement stations even in an area, like that of the Genoa Region, that shows one of the highest raingauge network density of Italy.
Furthermore, the analysis of short-duration annual maximum time series recorded by the authoritative rain gauge network of the Genoa region shows significant differences even at distances of less than 2 km in the average rainfall depth accumulated over a sub-hourly duration.
In conclusion, the results show that, to have a reliable description of urban flooding-producing rainfall events adequate hydrometeorological monitoring is one of the most important aspects. This may help both in correctly evaluate ground effects of occurred events as well as to improve the methods to draw design hyetographs for flood hazard assessment, especially for urban areas. In this perspective, the integration between authoritative and citizen science networks can provide a very interesting solution.
How to cite: Boni, G., Cauteruccio, A., Faccini, F., Loglisci, N., Milelli, M., Paliaga, G., and Parodi, A.: The Importance of the observation network density in describing spatiotemporal characteristics of events producing urban flooding: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-137, 2024.
Plinius18-113 | Orals | PL3
Impact of temperature threshold selection on future changes of liquid precipitation return levels based on convection-permitting modelsMatteo Pesce, Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Petr Vohnicky, Rashid Akbary, and Marco Borga
In mountainous regions, temperature conditions directly affect precipitation phase (liquid or solid) and, in turn, runoff formation and the probability of flood events. The projected temperature increase due to global warming therefore directly affects the fraction of liquid precipitation during heavy storms, leading to a potential intensification of the flood regime. In this study we assess the impact of temperature threshold selection for splitting precipitation into rainfall and snowfall, on the projected changes in the liquid fraction of precipitation during extreme events in the upper Adige River catchment (Eastern Italian Alps). To this aim, we use an ensemble of convection-permitting climate models (CPM), which are well suited to the task given their ability to explicitly represent deep convection and to resolve the mountainous topography. The CPM data provided by the CORDEX-FPS Convection project at 1 hour temporal resolution and remapped to 3 km spatial resolution cover historical and far future (2090-2099) time periods under the extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). Future changes of rainfall extremes are obtained using the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value approach, which is applied to the CPM simulations for frequency analysis. This approach provides estimates of extreme return levels with reduced uncertainty with respect to traditional methods. Three different temperature thresholds are used (i.e. 1, 1.5 and 2°C) and different elevation bands are considered within the catchment. Our preliminary results indicate an increase of liquid precipitation return levels that is dependent both on temperature threshold and elevation. In particular, larger increments are obtained for lower temperature thresholds and higher elevations. Moreover, the event duration seems to have an impact on the results, with a stronger signal for long duration storms. The results highlight the importance of addressing uncertainty in the quantification of future rainfall extremes in a mountainous area, with strong implications for water resources management and adaptation strategies.
How to cite: Pesce, M., Dallan, E., Marra, F., Fosser, G., Vohnicky, P., Akbary, R., and Borga, M.: Impact of temperature threshold selection on future changes of liquid precipitation return levels based on convection-permitting models, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-113, 2024.
In mountainous regions, temperature conditions directly affect precipitation phase (liquid or solid) and, in turn, runoff formation and the probability of flood events. The projected temperature increase due to global warming therefore directly affects the fraction of liquid precipitation during heavy storms, leading to a potential intensification of the flood regime. In this study we assess the impact of temperature threshold selection for splitting precipitation into rainfall and snowfall, on the projected changes in the liquid fraction of precipitation during extreme events in the upper Adige River catchment (Eastern Italian Alps). To this aim, we use an ensemble of convection-permitting climate models (CPM), which are well suited to the task given their ability to explicitly represent deep convection and to resolve the mountainous topography. The CPM data provided by the CORDEX-FPS Convection project at 1 hour temporal resolution and remapped to 3 km spatial resolution cover historical and far future (2090-2099) time periods under the extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). Future changes of rainfall extremes are obtained using the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value approach, which is applied to the CPM simulations for frequency analysis. This approach provides estimates of extreme return levels with reduced uncertainty with respect to traditional methods. Three different temperature thresholds are used (i.e. 1, 1.5 and 2°C) and different elevation bands are considered within the catchment. Our preliminary results indicate an increase of liquid precipitation return levels that is dependent both on temperature threshold and elevation. In particular, larger increments are obtained for lower temperature thresholds and higher elevations. Moreover, the event duration seems to have an impact on the results, with a stronger signal for long duration storms. The results highlight the importance of addressing uncertainty in the quantification of future rainfall extremes in a mountainous area, with strong implications for water resources management and adaptation strategies.
How to cite: Pesce, M., Dallan, E., Marra, F., Fosser, G., Vohnicky, P., Akbary, R., and Borga, M.: Impact of temperature threshold selection on future changes of liquid precipitation return levels based on convection-permitting models, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-113, 2024.
Plinius18-122 | Orals | PL3
Comparing extreme sub-daily rainfall projections from convection-permitting climate models and temperature-scaling across an Alpine gradientRashid Akbary, Marco Marani, Eleonora Dallan, and Marco Borga
Understanding projected changes in sub-daily extreme rainfall in mountainous basins can help increase our capability to adapt to and mitigate against flash floods and debris flows. Here we compare the changes in extreme rainfall projections from apparent Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) temperature scaling against those obtained from convection-permitting climate model simulations. Temperature and precipitation projections are obtained from an ensemble of convection-permitting climate models (CPM), which are suitable to the task given their ability to explicitly represent deep convection and to resolve the mountainous topography. The CPM data provided by the CORDEX-FPS Convection project at 1-hour temporal and remapped to 3 km spatial resolution, cover historical and far-future (2090-2099) time periods under the extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). Due to the computational demands however, CPM simulations are still too short (typically 10-20 years) for analyzing extremes using conventional methods. We use a non-asymptotic statistical approach (the Metastatistical Extreme Value, MEVD, Marani and Ignaccolo, 2015) for the analysis of extremes from short time periods, such as the ones of CPM simulations. We use hourly precipitation and temperature data from 174 stations in an orographically complex area in northeastern Italy as a benchmark.
In this study, we considered two temperatures approach for computing CC scaling: the mean annual temperature and the temperature during extreme events (top 20% of ordinary events). Our findings indicate that elevation significantly influences temperature changes during storms, with higher elevation areas experiencing more pronounced temperature increases in the future. This is further highlighted by seasonal shifts in storm occurrence, as we found storms moving from summer to fall in lowlands, suggesting a lower delta T for those storms. This same pattern was detected using the temperature during storms for CC scaling, showing that extremes are increasing more in higher elevations than in lowlands. We found this comparably captured by CC scaling approach, however, variations in return levels are also notable in CPMs when considering different return periods, as we find CPM changes depending on them, which contradicts the results from both CC scaling approaches. These findings identify that CC scaling agrees with CPM changes to some extend when the right temperature is selected, however, it emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of the scaling method's applicability under various conditions.
How to cite: Akbary, R., Marani, M., Dallan, E., and Borga, M.: Comparing extreme sub-daily rainfall projections from convection-permitting climate models and temperature-scaling across an Alpine gradient, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-122, 2024.
Understanding projected changes in sub-daily extreme rainfall in mountainous basins can help increase our capability to adapt to and mitigate against flash floods and debris flows. Here we compare the changes in extreme rainfall projections from apparent Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) temperature scaling against those obtained from convection-permitting climate model simulations. Temperature and precipitation projections are obtained from an ensemble of convection-permitting climate models (CPM), which are suitable to the task given their ability to explicitly represent deep convection and to resolve the mountainous topography. The CPM data provided by the CORDEX-FPS Convection project at 1-hour temporal and remapped to 3 km spatial resolution, cover historical and far-future (2090-2099) time periods under the extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). Due to the computational demands however, CPM simulations are still too short (typically 10-20 years) for analyzing extremes using conventional methods. We use a non-asymptotic statistical approach (the Metastatistical Extreme Value, MEVD, Marani and Ignaccolo, 2015) for the analysis of extremes from short time periods, such as the ones of CPM simulations. We use hourly precipitation and temperature data from 174 stations in an orographically complex area in northeastern Italy as a benchmark.
In this study, we considered two temperatures approach for computing CC scaling: the mean annual temperature and the temperature during extreme events (top 20% of ordinary events). Our findings indicate that elevation significantly influences temperature changes during storms, with higher elevation areas experiencing more pronounced temperature increases in the future. This is further highlighted by seasonal shifts in storm occurrence, as we found storms moving from summer to fall in lowlands, suggesting a lower delta T for those storms. This same pattern was detected using the temperature during storms for CC scaling, showing that extremes are increasing more in higher elevations than in lowlands. We found this comparably captured by CC scaling approach, however, variations in return levels are also notable in CPMs when considering different return periods, as we find CPM changes depending on them, which contradicts the results from both CC scaling approaches. These findings identify that CC scaling agrees with CPM changes to some extend when the right temperature is selected, however, it emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of the scaling method's applicability under various conditions.
How to cite: Akbary, R., Marani, M., Dallan, E., and Borga, M.: Comparing extreme sub-daily rainfall projections from convection-permitting climate models and temperature-scaling across an Alpine gradient, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-122, 2024.
PL4 – Socio-economic impacts: exposure, vulnerability, prospectives, and adaptation
Plinius18-84 | Posters | PL4
Engaging Youth in Citizen Science for Geohydrological Risk Awareness: A Case Study from ChiavariIvan Marchesini, Umberto Mezzacapo, Simone Sterlacchini, Debora Voltolina, Christian Gencarelli, Giuseppe Esposito, Antonella Galizia, Mattia Fortunati, Alessandro Sarretta, Alessandro Mondini, and Paola Salvati
Citizen science is increasingly employed to raise awareness and foster action on climate change and sustainability by involving the public in scientific processes. These initiatives promote scientific understanding and active participation in defining adaptation strategies, engaging diverse population groups and stakeholders. Participatory mechanisms play a crucial role in geo-hydrological disaster management, aiming to increase risk awareness among the population, especially the most vulnerable.
Within the H2020 I-CHANGE project, a participatory initiative is underway in Chiavari, part of the Genoa metropolitan area, involving local public offices, high school students, and teachers. Chiavari was chosen due to the wealth of information on past geohydrological events, including a significant flood in November 2014. This event provided abundant multimedia materials that enabled detailed reconstruction. Students simulated their presence during the flood and conducted field campaigns to gather local data and experiences through interviews with witnesses. They recorded specific data on a web application, describing various characteristics of the event such as water height and flow speed.
This hands-on approach was impactful for the students, allowing them to reconstruct local historical memory. Despite their young age during the 2014 flood, many remembered and feared the event, demonstrating its lasting impression. Complementarily, a survey on extreme event knowledge and perception was conducted among high school students and adults. Focus groups with students further explored themes identified in the survey.
The continuous engagement with young people has established a vivacious communication channel to raise awareness of the climate risks they will face. The project investigates several key points regarding participatory mechanisms with young people:
(i) The challenges and opportunities of using participatory and citizen science approaches to monitor geohydrological risks.
(ii) The effectiveness of these methods in enhancing risk awareness.
(iii) The broader implications of involving students in citizen science, including social interactions, participation levels, and technical-scientific challenges.
(iv) The impact on students' orientation towards sustainable behaviors and lifestyles.
How to cite: Marchesini, I., Mezzacapo, U., Sterlacchini, S., Voltolina, D., Gencarelli, C., Esposito, G., Galizia, A., Fortunati, M., Sarretta, A., Mondini, A., and Salvati, P.: Engaging Youth in Citizen Science for Geohydrological Risk Awareness: A Case Study from Chiavari, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-84, 2024.
Citizen science is increasingly employed to raise awareness and foster action on climate change and sustainability by involving the public in scientific processes. These initiatives promote scientific understanding and active participation in defining adaptation strategies, engaging diverse population groups and stakeholders. Participatory mechanisms play a crucial role in geo-hydrological disaster management, aiming to increase risk awareness among the population, especially the most vulnerable.
Within the H2020 I-CHANGE project, a participatory initiative is underway in Chiavari, part of the Genoa metropolitan area, involving local public offices, high school students, and teachers. Chiavari was chosen due to the wealth of information on past geohydrological events, including a significant flood in November 2014. This event provided abundant multimedia materials that enabled detailed reconstruction. Students simulated their presence during the flood and conducted field campaigns to gather local data and experiences through interviews with witnesses. They recorded specific data on a web application, describing various characteristics of the event such as water height and flow speed.
This hands-on approach was impactful for the students, allowing them to reconstruct local historical memory. Despite their young age during the 2014 flood, many remembered and feared the event, demonstrating its lasting impression. Complementarily, a survey on extreme event knowledge and perception was conducted among high school students and adults. Focus groups with students further explored themes identified in the survey.
The continuous engagement with young people has established a vivacious communication channel to raise awareness of the climate risks they will face. The project investigates several key points regarding participatory mechanisms with young people:
(i) The challenges and opportunities of using participatory and citizen science approaches to monitor geohydrological risks.
(ii) The effectiveness of these methods in enhancing risk awareness.
(iii) The broader implications of involving students in citizen science, including social interactions, participation levels, and technical-scientific challenges.
(iv) The impact on students' orientation towards sustainable behaviors and lifestyles.
How to cite: Marchesini, I., Mezzacapo, U., Sterlacchini, S., Voltolina, D., Gencarelli, C., Esposito, G., Galizia, A., Fortunati, M., Sarretta, A., Mondini, A., and Salvati, P.: Engaging Youth in Citizen Science for Geohydrological Risk Awareness: A Case Study from Chiavari, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-84, 2024.
Plinius18-41 | Orals | PL4
Comparison of flood mortality indices between western Algeria and southern Italy to enhance flood risk assessment within the Mediterranean frameworkOlga Petrucci and Miloud Sardou
Reducing flood-related deaths necessitates a deeper comprehension of the risk elements involved and the implementation of effective mitigation strategies. To understand the differences in flood-related deaths between developed and developing countries within a Mediterranean framework, we compiled a comprehensive database documenting 242 cases of mortality in western Algeria and Calabria, southern Italy. This database spans over a 33-year timeframe from 1990 to 2022, encompassing details such as the time and place of fatal accidents, victim characteristics, circumstances of death, and victim behaviour. In order to highlight the people's vulnerability, we have innovatively developed 13 mortality indices consolidated into four comprehensive indices: i) human, ii) physical, iii) environmental, and iv) circumstantial. The findings indicated a reduction in severe mortality incidents and the yearly number of flood-related deaths in both areas. The frequency of fatalities and the average number of deaths per year are higher in western Algeria, although the average number of fatalities per flood is practically the same. The flood mortality seasonality is similar oppositely to the spatial distribution. The assessment of mortality indices revealed similarities in vulnerability, except for the flood risk identification, rainfall and event death indices, which highlight the vulnerability of western Algeria, requiring prevention and protection actions suggested in this study. A key area for future research is to focus on the complex interaction between precipitation and basin-scale conditions, which would further strengthen the investigation into the role of victim behaviour in flood-related incidents. Moreover, refining the proposed indices with precision and validating their assessment procedures could offer novel, practical recommendations for saving lives in future flood events.
How to cite: Petrucci, O. and Sardou, M.: Comparison of flood mortality indices between western Algeria and southern Italy to enhance flood risk assessment within the Mediterranean framework, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-41, 2024.
Reducing flood-related deaths necessitates a deeper comprehension of the risk elements involved and the implementation of effective mitigation strategies. To understand the differences in flood-related deaths between developed and developing countries within a Mediterranean framework, we compiled a comprehensive database documenting 242 cases of mortality in western Algeria and Calabria, southern Italy. This database spans over a 33-year timeframe from 1990 to 2022, encompassing details such as the time and place of fatal accidents, victim characteristics, circumstances of death, and victim behaviour. In order to highlight the people's vulnerability, we have innovatively developed 13 mortality indices consolidated into four comprehensive indices: i) human, ii) physical, iii) environmental, and iv) circumstantial. The findings indicated a reduction in severe mortality incidents and the yearly number of flood-related deaths in both areas. The frequency of fatalities and the average number of deaths per year are higher in western Algeria, although the average number of fatalities per flood is practically the same. The flood mortality seasonality is similar oppositely to the spatial distribution. The assessment of mortality indices revealed similarities in vulnerability, except for the flood risk identification, rainfall and event death indices, which highlight the vulnerability of western Algeria, requiring prevention and protection actions suggested in this study. A key area for future research is to focus on the complex interaction between precipitation and basin-scale conditions, which would further strengthen the investigation into the role of victim behaviour in flood-related incidents. Moreover, refining the proposed indices with precision and validating their assessment procedures could offer novel, practical recommendations for saving lives in future flood events.
How to cite: Petrucci, O. and Sardou, M.: Comparison of flood mortality indices between western Algeria and southern Italy to enhance flood risk assessment within the Mediterranean framework, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-41, 2024.
Plinius18-19 | Orals | PL4
Flood-related mortality in Tunisia and Morocco. Initial results for the period 1980-2020Freddy Vinet, Yves Tramblay, Mohamed El Mehdi Saidi, jean-philippe Cherel, Noomene fehri, Habib Ben Boubaker, Gil Mahe, Robin Gimenez, and Océane Tissot
Since fifteen years, there have been many publications on flood-related mortality, especially in Europe. However, the countries on the southern side of the Mediterranean sea (northern Africa) have received little attention. This presentation introduce the results of a study on flood-related mortality in Morocco and Tunisia. The period covered is 1980-2020, to ensure consistency with European publications. The method used starts from research in the newpapers, internet, existing database such as EM-DAT and in scientific and technical bibliography. Identified flood related fatalities are then confirmed on field, especially to obtain the location and the accurate circumstances of of the deaths.
1,400 deaths in Morocco and 275 in Tunisia have been identified between 1980 and 2020, but the number of deaths is probably underestimated before 1995 in Morocco and before 2010 in Tunisia. Indeed, data quality varies considerably from one period to the next. In Morocco, the Ourika flood event that triggered between 200 to 700 fatalities in August 1995 raised awareness of the issue of flooding. Since then, data collection has become much more accurate. In Tunisia, it was the spread of the Internet and the 2011 revolution that enabled flood information to be disseminated, particularly in the newspapers. The mortality rate for each country's population ranges from 0.66 (Tunisia) to 1.2 (Morocco) death per year and per million inhabitants.
The first result is the predominance of outdoor fatalities, either by car or pedestrians, for example when crossing wadis. Deaths at home are rarer than in Europe. We must note in Morocco the specific case of old houses that collapse during heavy rainstorms events. The age of dead people is younger than in Europe, reflecting the youth of the North African population. Men are over-represented. The geographical distribution of deaths shows mortality hotspots linked to population distribution. In Tunisia, fatalities have concentrated over the last ten years in the Tunis city region and along the coast, reflecting the increase in population along the coast.
How to cite: Vinet, F., Tramblay, Y., El Mehdi Saidi, M., Cherel, J., fehri, N., Ben Boubaker, H., Mahe, G., Gimenez, R., and Tissot, O.: Flood-related mortality in Tunisia and Morocco. Initial results for the period 1980-2020, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-19, 2024.
Since fifteen years, there have been many publications on flood-related mortality, especially in Europe. However, the countries on the southern side of the Mediterranean sea (northern Africa) have received little attention. This presentation introduce the results of a study on flood-related mortality in Morocco and Tunisia. The period covered is 1980-2020, to ensure consistency with European publications. The method used starts from research in the newpapers, internet, existing database such as EM-DAT and in scientific and technical bibliography. Identified flood related fatalities are then confirmed on field, especially to obtain the location and the accurate circumstances of of the deaths.
1,400 deaths in Morocco and 275 in Tunisia have been identified between 1980 and 2020, but the number of deaths is probably underestimated before 1995 in Morocco and before 2010 in Tunisia. Indeed, data quality varies considerably from one period to the next. In Morocco, the Ourika flood event that triggered between 200 to 700 fatalities in August 1995 raised awareness of the issue of flooding. Since then, data collection has become much more accurate. In Tunisia, it was the spread of the Internet and the 2011 revolution that enabled flood information to be disseminated, particularly in the newspapers. The mortality rate for each country's population ranges from 0.66 (Tunisia) to 1.2 (Morocco) death per year and per million inhabitants.
The first result is the predominance of outdoor fatalities, either by car or pedestrians, for example when crossing wadis. Deaths at home are rarer than in Europe. We must note in Morocco the specific case of old houses that collapse during heavy rainstorms events. The age of dead people is younger than in Europe, reflecting the youth of the North African population. Men are over-represented. The geographical distribution of deaths shows mortality hotspots linked to population distribution. In Tunisia, fatalities have concentrated over the last ten years in the Tunis city region and along the coast, reflecting the increase in population along the coast.
How to cite: Vinet, F., Tramblay, Y., El Mehdi Saidi, M., Cherel, J., fehri, N., Ben Boubaker, H., Mahe, G., Gimenez, R., and Tissot, O.: Flood-related mortality in Tunisia and Morocco. Initial results for the period 1980-2020, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-19, 2024.
Plinius18-127 | Posters | PL4
Space applications at the service of Food SecurityGabriele Redigonda, Lucas Bersegol, James Francis, Shadi Rochard, and Laura Corbett
Food Security has become one of the highest political priorities at the national, regional, and international level, notably emphasised in the UN Secretary General's Common Agenda and most recent statements under the G7 umbrella.
Climate change is a key determinant of current and future risks at stake for food security. The alteration of Essential Climate Variables undeniably affects and poses significant threats to natural ecosystems’ resilience. In turn, cascading effects are observed in various aspects of our societies as a whole, particularly in the realm of water and food security.
Given the unique climate vulnerability in the Mediterranean region, a prioritized and elevated attention is required, directly undermining the need for intervention to address the humanitarian crisis stemming from food insecurity. The urgency of acting has been understood, along with recognizing that only a coordinated regional approach can be effective in tackling these issues towards a possible solution. Additionally, by leveraging shared expertise and best practices developed in food security-related fields, both Mediterranean countries and stakeholders around the world will have the opportunity to enhance their national response.
The value of space-based solutions in addressing the underlying issues at stake contributing to food insecurity has already been acknowledged. This has been largely evidenced by the emergence of various initiatives, outlined in this paper, directly tackling food security challenges using space data. However, despite these on-going efforts, the full potential of space-based solutions has yet to be fully realized, hence expanding beyond current untapped capabilities and their impact. Thus, several activities could be undertaken to optimize the use of space data and derived information to overcome both current and foreseen food security challenges.
Unleashing this potential requires concreate actions at all levels, and with a multidisciplinary approach. In particular, policy and regulatory measures play a central role in this regard, as demonstrated based on an initial analysis of the status of affairs, complemented by a broad consultation campaign involving both policymakers and decision-makers from Mediterranean countries, as well as relevant international organisations such as FAO, WFP, IFAD.
How to cite: Redigonda, G., Bersegol, L., Francis, J., Rochard, S., and Corbett, L.: Space applications at the service of Food Security, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-127, 2024.
Food Security has become one of the highest political priorities at the national, regional, and international level, notably emphasised in the UN Secretary General's Common Agenda and most recent statements under the G7 umbrella.
Climate change is a key determinant of current and future risks at stake for food security. The alteration of Essential Climate Variables undeniably affects and poses significant threats to natural ecosystems’ resilience. In turn, cascading effects are observed in various aspects of our societies as a whole, particularly in the realm of water and food security.
Given the unique climate vulnerability in the Mediterranean region, a prioritized and elevated attention is required, directly undermining the need for intervention to address the humanitarian crisis stemming from food insecurity. The urgency of acting has been understood, along with recognizing that only a coordinated regional approach can be effective in tackling these issues towards a possible solution. Additionally, by leveraging shared expertise and best practices developed in food security-related fields, both Mediterranean countries and stakeholders around the world will have the opportunity to enhance their national response.
The value of space-based solutions in addressing the underlying issues at stake contributing to food insecurity has already been acknowledged. This has been largely evidenced by the emergence of various initiatives, outlined in this paper, directly tackling food security challenges using space data. However, despite these on-going efforts, the full potential of space-based solutions has yet to be fully realized, hence expanding beyond current untapped capabilities and their impact. Thus, several activities could be undertaken to optimize the use of space data and derived information to overcome both current and foreseen food security challenges.
Unleashing this potential requires concreate actions at all levels, and with a multidisciplinary approach. In particular, policy and regulatory measures play a central role in this regard, as demonstrated based on an initial analysis of the status of affairs, complemented by a broad consultation campaign involving both policymakers and decision-makers from Mediterranean countries, as well as relevant international organisations such as FAO, WFP, IFAD.
How to cite: Redigonda, G., Bersegol, L., Francis, J., Rochard, S., and Corbett, L.: Space applications at the service of Food Security, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-127, 2024.
Plinius18-53 | Posters | PL4
Societal Impacts and Adaptive Responses to Mid-20th Century Flood Events in Carinthia and CalabriaOlga Petrucci and Christina Orieschnig
The analysis of societal impacts from natural hazards has gained increasing importance, especially with climate change intensifying the frequency of extreme events. Studying community responses to past extreme events provides valuable insights into local risk management evolution. This study examines the immediate impacts and long-term societal responses to two significant mid-20th century flood events in Carinthia (Austria) and Calabria (Italy). The two study areas differ considerably with respect to climatic, geomorphologic, demographic and social conditions. Carinthia is an alpine region in the South of Austria, while Calabria represents a typical Mediterranean region, located at the southernmost peninsular extremity of Italy. Despite differences, they both experienced transformative floods that led to major adaptation measures. In Calabria, the catastrophic floods of 1951 and 1953 resulted in 150 fatalities and widespread infrastructure damage, prompting a mass emigration in America and the enactment of Law N. 938/1953 by the Italian government. In Carinthia, the floods of 1965 and 1966 caused 22 fatalities and extensive economic damage, leading to comprehensive river regulation measures. For each region and event, we assessed indicators such as rainfall intensity, flood discharge, affected areas, damage types, population impact, fatalities, injuries, homelessness, economic damage, and post-event countermeasures. We furthermore use historical maps to delineate the extent of the damage and show the morphological impact of flood protection and river regulation measures introduced to reduce future risk. Our analysis reveals that both regions, despite differing socio-economic contexts, predominantly relied on structural interventions for flood protection, according to a typical approach of the XX century. However, these measures also had adverse hydrological and economic consequences, including groundwater lowering, base penetration threats, and sediment entrapment. This study underscores the importance of multi-dimensional risk management strategies and the need for adaptive measures that account for both immediate and long-term impacts. By comparing these historical events, we highlight the evolution of flood management practices and the ongoing necessity for balanced, sustainable approaches to hazard mitigation.
How to cite: Petrucci, O. and Orieschnig, C.: Societal Impacts and Adaptive Responses to Mid-20th Century Flood Events in Carinthia and Calabria, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-53, 2024.
The analysis of societal impacts from natural hazards has gained increasing importance, especially with climate change intensifying the frequency of extreme events. Studying community responses to past extreme events provides valuable insights into local risk management evolution. This study examines the immediate impacts and long-term societal responses to two significant mid-20th century flood events in Carinthia (Austria) and Calabria (Italy). The two study areas differ considerably with respect to climatic, geomorphologic, demographic and social conditions. Carinthia is an alpine region in the South of Austria, while Calabria represents a typical Mediterranean region, located at the southernmost peninsular extremity of Italy. Despite differences, they both experienced transformative floods that led to major adaptation measures. In Calabria, the catastrophic floods of 1951 and 1953 resulted in 150 fatalities and widespread infrastructure damage, prompting a mass emigration in America and the enactment of Law N. 938/1953 by the Italian government. In Carinthia, the floods of 1965 and 1966 caused 22 fatalities and extensive economic damage, leading to comprehensive river regulation measures. For each region and event, we assessed indicators such as rainfall intensity, flood discharge, affected areas, damage types, population impact, fatalities, injuries, homelessness, economic damage, and post-event countermeasures. We furthermore use historical maps to delineate the extent of the damage and show the morphological impact of flood protection and river regulation measures introduced to reduce future risk. Our analysis reveals that both regions, despite differing socio-economic contexts, predominantly relied on structural interventions for flood protection, according to a typical approach of the XX century. However, these measures also had adverse hydrological and economic consequences, including groundwater lowering, base penetration threats, and sediment entrapment. This study underscores the importance of multi-dimensional risk management strategies and the need for adaptive measures that account for both immediate and long-term impacts. By comparing these historical events, we highlight the evolution of flood management practices and the ongoing necessity for balanced, sustainable approaches to hazard mitigation.
How to cite: Petrucci, O. and Orieschnig, C.: Societal Impacts and Adaptive Responses to Mid-20th Century Flood Events in Carinthia and Calabria, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-53, 2024.
Plinius18-91 | Orals | PL4
Analysis of the relationship of 41-yrs reanalysis rainfall data and flood fatalities in the Euro-Mediterranean regionKaterina Papagiannaki, Vassiliki Kotroni, Kostas Lagouvardos, Michalis Diakakis, and Petros Kyriakou
Flood fatalities are a significant challenge in the Euro-Mediterranean region, demanding a deeper exploration of the connection between rainfall patterns and the occurrence of flood-related deaths. While previous studies have documented the profiles, temporal and spatial contexts, and circumstances of flood fatalities in this region, they have primarily focused on demographic, social, and behavioural factors, often neglecting weather-related hazard parameters. This study aims to address this gap. In our research, we utilize the open-access Flood Fatalities from the Euro-Mediterranean region database (FFEM-DB), which encompasses 2,875 flood fatalities from 1980 to 2020. We define rainfall hazard variables by analyzing rainfall data from the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) V2.8 dataset. Then, we assess the role of rainfall amounts in explaining flood fatalities in conjunction with geomorphological parameters and socio-demographic changes over the study period. We employ various statistical techniques to investigate rainfall's temporal and spatial patterns and their association with flood fatalities. We also emphasize the importance of historical rainfall patterns in assessing flood risk and designing effective disaster management strategies. The insights gained from this study enhance the existing knowledge of the factors influencing flood fatalities in the Euro-Mediterranean region.
This research is performed in the frame of SNOWCLIM project funded by ECF.
How to cite: Papagiannaki, K., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Diakakis, M., and Kyriakou, P.: Analysis of the relationship of 41-yrs reanalysis rainfall data and flood fatalities in the Euro-Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-91, 2024.
Flood fatalities are a significant challenge in the Euro-Mediterranean region, demanding a deeper exploration of the connection between rainfall patterns and the occurrence of flood-related deaths. While previous studies have documented the profiles, temporal and spatial contexts, and circumstances of flood fatalities in this region, they have primarily focused on demographic, social, and behavioural factors, often neglecting weather-related hazard parameters. This study aims to address this gap. In our research, we utilize the open-access Flood Fatalities from the Euro-Mediterranean region database (FFEM-DB), which encompasses 2,875 flood fatalities from 1980 to 2020. We define rainfall hazard variables by analyzing rainfall data from the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) V2.8 dataset. Then, we assess the role of rainfall amounts in explaining flood fatalities in conjunction with geomorphological parameters and socio-demographic changes over the study period. We employ various statistical techniques to investigate rainfall's temporal and spatial patterns and their association with flood fatalities. We also emphasize the importance of historical rainfall patterns in assessing flood risk and designing effective disaster management strategies. The insights gained from this study enhance the existing knowledge of the factors influencing flood fatalities in the Euro-Mediterranean region.
This research is performed in the frame of SNOWCLIM project funded by ECF.
How to cite: Papagiannaki, K., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Diakakis, M., and Kyriakou, P.: Analysis of the relationship of 41-yrs reanalysis rainfall data and flood fatalities in the Euro-Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-91, 2024.
Plinius18-73 | Orals | PL4
Evaluating the frequency of high-mortality flash floods in the Eastern Mediterranean regionMichalis Diakakis, Katerina Papagiannaki, and Meletis Fouskaris
Despite advancements in flood risk mitigation, many regions globally still experience severe flood disasters leading to significant loss of life. Estimating the frequency of such catastrophic events is challenging, particularly in areas with limited disaster and instrumental records. Nevertheless, accurate frequency estimates are crucial for preparedness and civil protection, especially in the context of climate change and the projected increase of such events. This study presents a comprehensive database of high-mortality floods in the Eastern Mediterranean from 1882 to 2021, enabling a detailed analysis of the deadliest events and their seasonal, temporal, and spatial characteristics. The database identifies 132 flood events (causing 10 or more fatalities), occurring on average every 1.56 years. While less frequent, high-magnitude events (above the 85th percentile) were observed to have a return period of 9.1 years in the region. The analysis indicates an increase in high-mortality flood events in recent decades and highlights distinct seasonal and spatial patterns. The findings provide a basis for an improved understanding of catastrophic flood occurrences in the region and specifically on how common such events can be. Additionally, this research represents a significant step towards comprehensively understanding historical trends in extreme floods and their potential future trajectories.
How to cite: Diakakis, M., Papagiannaki, K., and Fouskaris, M.: Evaluating the frequency of high-mortality flash floods in the Eastern Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-73, 2024.
Despite advancements in flood risk mitigation, many regions globally still experience severe flood disasters leading to significant loss of life. Estimating the frequency of such catastrophic events is challenging, particularly in areas with limited disaster and instrumental records. Nevertheless, accurate frequency estimates are crucial for preparedness and civil protection, especially in the context of climate change and the projected increase of such events. This study presents a comprehensive database of high-mortality floods in the Eastern Mediterranean from 1882 to 2021, enabling a detailed analysis of the deadliest events and their seasonal, temporal, and spatial characteristics. The database identifies 132 flood events (causing 10 or more fatalities), occurring on average every 1.56 years. While less frequent, high-magnitude events (above the 85th percentile) were observed to have a return period of 9.1 years in the region. The analysis indicates an increase in high-mortality flood events in recent decades and highlights distinct seasonal and spatial patterns. The findings provide a basis for an improved understanding of catastrophic flood occurrences in the region and specifically on how common such events can be. Additionally, this research represents a significant step towards comprehensively understanding historical trends in extreme floods and their potential future trajectories.
How to cite: Diakakis, M., Papagiannaki, K., and Fouskaris, M.: Evaluating the frequency of high-mortality flash floods in the Eastern Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-73, 2024.
Plinius18-57 | Posters | PL4
Assessing Climate-Related Risks: Heatwaves, Droughts, Fires, and Pollution in Vulnerable Regions of the GlobeVirgílio A. Bento, Daniela C.A. Lima, and Ana Russo
Understanding the risks associated with climate change and variability, particularly related to the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and pollution, is crucial for safeguarding public health and safety. As global temperatures rise, hot and dry conditions become more prevalent, exacerbating the likelihood of devastating wildfires that not only destroy ecosystems but also release harmful pollutants into the air. Pollutants from these events, desert plumes, industry, and other sources, including particulate matter, pose significant respiratory and cardiovascular risks to the population, particularly vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly, and those with preexisting health conditions. Comprehensive awareness and proactive measures are essential to mitigate these risks, ensuring that communities are better prepared to adapt and respond to the escalating challenges posed by our changing climate.
In this work, we adopt the IPCC's definition of risk, which encompasses the potential for adverse consequences due to the interplay of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. We analyse climate-related hazards including heatwaves, droughts, fires measured by fire radiative power, and pollution quantified as PM2.5 levels. These hazards are assessed in conjunction with population characteristics that determine exposure, such as population density. Furthermore, we evaluate vulnerability through socio-economic variables like the Human Development Index (HDI) and GDP per capita, which provide insights into the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the different communities. By integrating these elements, our study aims to comprehensively understand and quantify the risks posed by climate to human and ecological systems at the global level.
Results indicate that populations in Western and Eastern Africa, as well as Southeastern Asia, are most at risk from the combined impacts of heatwaves, droughts, and fires. The Mediterranean region, particularly the African Mediterranean and Greece are also at risk concerning hot and dry events. However, the Mediterranean regions are not particularly at risk from the combined effects of fire and pollution. These regions are characterized by significant exposure to extreme weather events and varying levels of vulnerability due to socio-economic factors. When considering pollution alone, regions such as Western Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Eastern and Southeastern Asia face particularly high levels of risk, primarily due to elevated concentrations of PM2.5 pollutants. The intersection of high exposure and vulnerability in these areas underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions and adaptive strategies to mitigate the adverse health and environmental impacts of these climate-related hazards.
This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). This work was performed under the scope of project https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC (DHEFEUS) and supported by national funds through FCT. DL and AR acknowledge FCT I.P./MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) for the FCT https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.03183.CEECIND/CP1715/CT0004 and https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006, respectively.
How to cite: Bento, V. A., Lima, D. C. A., and Russo, A.: Assessing Climate-Related Risks: Heatwaves, Droughts, Fires, and Pollution in Vulnerable Regions of the Globe, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-57, 2024.
Understanding the risks associated with climate change and variability, particularly related to the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and pollution, is crucial for safeguarding public health and safety. As global temperatures rise, hot and dry conditions become more prevalent, exacerbating the likelihood of devastating wildfires that not only destroy ecosystems but also release harmful pollutants into the air. Pollutants from these events, desert plumes, industry, and other sources, including particulate matter, pose significant respiratory and cardiovascular risks to the population, particularly vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly, and those with preexisting health conditions. Comprehensive awareness and proactive measures are essential to mitigate these risks, ensuring that communities are better prepared to adapt and respond to the escalating challenges posed by our changing climate.
In this work, we adopt the IPCC's definition of risk, which encompasses the potential for adverse consequences due to the interplay of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. We analyse climate-related hazards including heatwaves, droughts, fires measured by fire radiative power, and pollution quantified as PM2.5 levels. These hazards are assessed in conjunction with population characteristics that determine exposure, such as population density. Furthermore, we evaluate vulnerability through socio-economic variables like the Human Development Index (HDI) and GDP per capita, which provide insights into the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the different communities. By integrating these elements, our study aims to comprehensively understand and quantify the risks posed by climate to human and ecological systems at the global level.
Results indicate that populations in Western and Eastern Africa, as well as Southeastern Asia, are most at risk from the combined impacts of heatwaves, droughts, and fires. The Mediterranean region, particularly the African Mediterranean and Greece are also at risk concerning hot and dry events. However, the Mediterranean regions are not particularly at risk from the combined effects of fire and pollution. These regions are characterized by significant exposure to extreme weather events and varying levels of vulnerability due to socio-economic factors. When considering pollution alone, regions such as Western Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Eastern and Southeastern Asia face particularly high levels of risk, primarily due to elevated concentrations of PM2.5 pollutants. The intersection of high exposure and vulnerability in these areas underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions and adaptive strategies to mitigate the adverse health and environmental impacts of these climate-related hazards.
This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). This work was performed under the scope of project https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC (DHEFEUS) and supported by national funds through FCT. DL and AR acknowledge FCT I.P./MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) for the FCT https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.03183.CEECIND/CP1715/CT0004 and https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006, respectively.
How to cite: Bento, V. A., Lima, D. C. A., and Russo, A.: Assessing Climate-Related Risks: Heatwaves, Droughts, Fires, and Pollution in Vulnerable Regions of the Globe, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-57, 2024.
Plinius18-114 | Orals | PL4
Geo-hydrological events and human losses: a gender perspectivePaola Salvati, Loredana Antronico, Cinzia Bianchi, Maria Teresa Carone, Roberto Coscarelli, Stefano Gariano, Mauro Rossi, and Melissa Sessa
Reducing the loss of life and the number of people affected by natural disasters, including landslides and floods, is an expected outcome of the Sendai Framework that provided a set of guiding principles, including a call for the integration of a gender perspective. Previous studies on natural disasters have documented how people's social roles shape their experiences of disasters, their vulnerability, and their ability to respond and recover, highlighting how people's mortality in disasters can be dramatically exacerbated by their gender.
Within this framework, the main motivation guiding the present research is to understand how risk perception affected people behaviors divided by gender and age. At this aim the methodology we used consisted in carrying out a nationwide questionnaire in collaboration with an Italian independent Marketing Research Institute (Piepoli) to quantitatively measure the levels of geo-hydrological risk perception. For the purpose, we prepared the questionnaires designed to help the interviewees to consider first their general feelings about environmental and natural risks, and next, their specific understanding and fear of landslide and flood risk. The sampling strategy used a classification based on demographic variables, including: the size and distribution of the population in each Italian macro-region, the sex by age and the education degree.
Results were compared with the observed distribution by gender and age of landslide and flood fatalities in Italy.
The analysis is crucial to single out population groups most vulnerable to geo-hydrological hazard in Italy. The results obtained are important to improve the safety of people, to increase the resilience of communities to landslides and floods and to design effective informative risk reduction campaigns, as we have found that gender influences landslide and flood mortality. Data disaggregated by gender, age, and environment allowed the identification of possible associations between influential variables, and the selection of those that were most (statistically) significant. The norms of social processes related to the risk cycle may vary according to age, gender, and culture, as well as the social and economic context in which people live. In addition, the gender norms referred to the rules in different social groups (i.e. family, workplace, institution) are key factors in explaining how individuals respond to risk. In conclusion, the potential of gender analysis applied to that field, can promote the efficiency of the measures adopted to respond to crises and enable social equality in the response to the direct and indirect damage caused by geo-hydrological disasters, not only in Italy but everywhere.
How to cite: Salvati, P., Antronico, L., Bianchi, C., Carone, M. T., Coscarelli, R., Gariano, S., Rossi, M., and Sessa, M.: Geo-hydrological events and human losses: a gender perspective, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-114, 2024.
Reducing the loss of life and the number of people affected by natural disasters, including landslides and floods, is an expected outcome of the Sendai Framework that provided a set of guiding principles, including a call for the integration of a gender perspective. Previous studies on natural disasters have documented how people's social roles shape their experiences of disasters, their vulnerability, and their ability to respond and recover, highlighting how people's mortality in disasters can be dramatically exacerbated by their gender.
Within this framework, the main motivation guiding the present research is to understand how risk perception affected people behaviors divided by gender and age. At this aim the methodology we used consisted in carrying out a nationwide questionnaire in collaboration with an Italian independent Marketing Research Institute (Piepoli) to quantitatively measure the levels of geo-hydrological risk perception. For the purpose, we prepared the questionnaires designed to help the interviewees to consider first their general feelings about environmental and natural risks, and next, their specific understanding and fear of landslide and flood risk. The sampling strategy used a classification based on demographic variables, including: the size and distribution of the population in each Italian macro-region, the sex by age and the education degree.
Results were compared with the observed distribution by gender and age of landslide and flood fatalities in Italy.
The analysis is crucial to single out population groups most vulnerable to geo-hydrological hazard in Italy. The results obtained are important to improve the safety of people, to increase the resilience of communities to landslides and floods and to design effective informative risk reduction campaigns, as we have found that gender influences landslide and flood mortality. Data disaggregated by gender, age, and environment allowed the identification of possible associations between influential variables, and the selection of those that were most (statistically) significant. The norms of social processes related to the risk cycle may vary according to age, gender, and culture, as well as the social and economic context in which people live. In addition, the gender norms referred to the rules in different social groups (i.e. family, workplace, institution) are key factors in explaining how individuals respond to risk. In conclusion, the potential of gender analysis applied to that field, can promote the efficiency of the measures adopted to respond to crises and enable social equality in the response to the direct and indirect damage caused by geo-hydrological disasters, not only in Italy but everywhere.
How to cite: Salvati, P., Antronico, L., Bianchi, C., Carone, M. T., Coscarelli, R., Gariano, S., Rossi, M., and Sessa, M.: Geo-hydrological events and human losses: a gender perspective, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-114, 2024.
Plinius18-87 | Posters | PL4
Future projections of photovoltaic power generation potential change in Greece based on high-resolution EURO-CORDEX RCM simulationsAristeidis K. Georgoulias, Dimitris Akritidis, Alkiviadis Kalisoras, Dimitris Melas, and Prodromos Zanis
Here, we assess the projected changes of the photovoltaic power generation potential (PVpot) in Greece for the 21st century. Our analysis is based on an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative following three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely, RCP2.6 (strong mitigation), RCP4.5 (moderate mitigation), and RCP8.5 (no further mitigation). The spatial patterns of the PVpot changes in the near future (2021-2050) and the end of the century (2071-2100) relative to 1971-2000 are presented along with their statistical robustness. In addition, timeseries and boxplots with the projected changes are presented. Finally, the isolation of the effect of specific climatic variables (e.g., surface temperature and wind speed) on the projected PVpot changes is also examined and the importance of PV energy production for the country is discussed.
This research was funded by the project "Support for Enhancing the Operation of the National Network for Climate Change (CLIMPACT)", National Development Program, General Secretariat of Research and Innovation, Greece (2023ΝA11900001 - Ν. 5201588).
How to cite: Georgoulias, A. K., Akritidis, D., Kalisoras, A., Melas, D., and Zanis, P.: Future projections of photovoltaic power generation potential change in Greece based on high-resolution EURO-CORDEX RCM simulations, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-87, 2024.
Here, we assess the projected changes of the photovoltaic power generation potential (PVpot) in Greece for the 21st century. Our analysis is based on an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative following three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely, RCP2.6 (strong mitigation), RCP4.5 (moderate mitigation), and RCP8.5 (no further mitigation). The spatial patterns of the PVpot changes in the near future (2021-2050) and the end of the century (2071-2100) relative to 1971-2000 are presented along with their statistical robustness. In addition, timeseries and boxplots with the projected changes are presented. Finally, the isolation of the effect of specific climatic variables (e.g., surface temperature and wind speed) on the projected PVpot changes is also examined and the importance of PV energy production for the country is discussed.
This research was funded by the project "Support for Enhancing the Operation of the National Network for Climate Change (CLIMPACT)", National Development Program, General Secretariat of Research and Innovation, Greece (2023ΝA11900001 - Ν. 5201588).
How to cite: Georgoulias, A. K., Akritidis, D., Kalisoras, A., Melas, D., and Zanis, P.: Future projections of photovoltaic power generation potential change in Greece based on high-resolution EURO-CORDEX RCM simulations, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-87, 2024.
Plinius18-98 | Posters | PL4
Collaborative data collection to assess physical vulnerability of residential buildings in the flash flood-prone city of La Spezia, northern ItalyGiuseppe Esposito, Daniela Molinari, Simone Sterlacchini, Marco Zazzeri, Ginevra Chelli, Rosa Maria Cavalli, Marco Milella, and Paola Salvati
Mediterranean storms generating flash floods in small urbanized watersheds are leading to worsening socio-economic impacts, and challenges in terms of disaster risk management. One of the main issues affecting risk reduction in these settings is the occurrence of rough topography coupled with high density of buildings and infrastructures. This can limit structural interventions aimed at hazard mitigation, and only allow countermeasures that focus on reducing vulnerability and exposure of people and properties.
Damage models are useful tools for addressing some of the criticalities affecting flash flood risk reduction. These models aim to predict the extent of monetary loss associated with exposed assets by relating the expected physical damage to the recovery or reconstruction costs. The input data of the damage models consist of different types of variables that define the physical vulnerability of edifices. With reference to residential buildings, a series of characteristics including building type, structure, and number of floors need to be collected in the field. Damage models based on innovative machine learning algorithms can also support disaster managers during the response phase to flash flood events, by providing rapid damage scenarios that are useful for organizing relief operations.
Besides the physical vulnerability, it is also important to assess and reduce the social vulnerability of communities at risk. Informing the population on how to prepare for flash flood scenarios is crucial for mitigating the impact of future disasters. Generally, public involvement in the geo-hydrological disaster management cycle, supported by information and communication technologies, and training exercises, represent useful strategies to enhance the risk awareness and self-protection behaviors of citizens.
In this framework, the Hyrma (Hydrogeological Risk Assessment through Collaborative Mapping) project aims to implement collaborative data collection to acquire, store, analyze, and share geo-localized data about hazard, exposure, and physical vulnerability of buildings in flash flood-prone areas. Information on damage and costs related to past events are also collected. Trained volunteers can submit geo-localized data about selected residential buildings directly in the field, in pre-structured forms, via dropdown menus, single and multiple choices menus including images and videos. For this purpose, low-cost and user-centered web applications are properly designed and made available free of charge on smartphones and tablets. Data collected at the pilot sites are used to: i) develop or update existing damage models; ii) inform involved citizens about the risk they are exposed to, increasing their awareness and self-protection capabilities that may be transferred to other people according to a cascading effect.
The current contribution presents preliminary outcomes of the Hyrma project, such as the implemented web application form along with examples of the first datasets collected by students, Civil Protection volunteers, and technicians in the coastal city of La Spezia (northern Italy). Here, the local municipality has just released an updated hydraulic model providing the expected water depths and velocities for twelve inhabited watersheds with thousands of people and buildings at risk.
This project has received funding from the European Union – Next Generation EU, under grant agreement 2022NRAW3Z_PE10_PRIN2022.
How to cite: Esposito, G., Molinari, D., Sterlacchini, S., Zazzeri, M., Chelli, G., Cavalli, R. M., Milella, M., and Salvati, P.: Collaborative data collection to assess physical vulnerability of residential buildings in the flash flood-prone city of La Spezia, northern Italy, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-98, 2024.
Mediterranean storms generating flash floods in small urbanized watersheds are leading to worsening socio-economic impacts, and challenges in terms of disaster risk management. One of the main issues affecting risk reduction in these settings is the occurrence of rough topography coupled with high density of buildings and infrastructures. This can limit structural interventions aimed at hazard mitigation, and only allow countermeasures that focus on reducing vulnerability and exposure of people and properties.
Damage models are useful tools for addressing some of the criticalities affecting flash flood risk reduction. These models aim to predict the extent of monetary loss associated with exposed assets by relating the expected physical damage to the recovery or reconstruction costs. The input data of the damage models consist of different types of variables that define the physical vulnerability of edifices. With reference to residential buildings, a series of characteristics including building type, structure, and number of floors need to be collected in the field. Damage models based on innovative machine learning algorithms can also support disaster managers during the response phase to flash flood events, by providing rapid damage scenarios that are useful for organizing relief operations.
Besides the physical vulnerability, it is also important to assess and reduce the social vulnerability of communities at risk. Informing the population on how to prepare for flash flood scenarios is crucial for mitigating the impact of future disasters. Generally, public involvement in the geo-hydrological disaster management cycle, supported by information and communication technologies, and training exercises, represent useful strategies to enhance the risk awareness and self-protection behaviors of citizens.
In this framework, the Hyrma (Hydrogeological Risk Assessment through Collaborative Mapping) project aims to implement collaborative data collection to acquire, store, analyze, and share geo-localized data about hazard, exposure, and physical vulnerability of buildings in flash flood-prone areas. Information on damage and costs related to past events are also collected. Trained volunteers can submit geo-localized data about selected residential buildings directly in the field, in pre-structured forms, via dropdown menus, single and multiple choices menus including images and videos. For this purpose, low-cost and user-centered web applications are properly designed and made available free of charge on smartphones and tablets. Data collected at the pilot sites are used to: i) develop or update existing damage models; ii) inform involved citizens about the risk they are exposed to, increasing their awareness and self-protection capabilities that may be transferred to other people according to a cascading effect.
The current contribution presents preliminary outcomes of the Hyrma project, such as the implemented web application form along with examples of the first datasets collected by students, Civil Protection volunteers, and technicians in the coastal city of La Spezia (northern Italy). Here, the local municipality has just released an updated hydraulic model providing the expected water depths and velocities for twelve inhabited watersheds with thousands of people and buildings at risk.
This project has received funding from the European Union – Next Generation EU, under grant agreement 2022NRAW3Z_PE10_PRIN2022.
How to cite: Esposito, G., Molinari, D., Sterlacchini, S., Zazzeri, M., Chelli, G., Cavalli, R. M., Milella, M., and Salvati, P.: Collaborative data collection to assess physical vulnerability of residential buildings in the flash flood-prone city of La Spezia, northern Italy, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-98, 2024.
Plinius18-68 | Orals | PL4
Improving decision-making during high-impact hydrometeorological events: A series of serious games for flood crisis management exercisesGalateia Terti, Isabelle Ruin, Benoit Gaudou, Delphine Grancher, Déborah Bodini, Pierre Nicolle, and Olivier Payrastre
Effective decision-making during high-impact hydrometeorological events such as floods is crucial to mitigate adverse socio-economic impacts. Traditional approaches often fall short of providing adequate guidance under uncertain conditions. In this study, we explore the effectiveness of cooperative gaming in enhancing decision-making processes during such crises.
As part of the European ANYWHERE project, we developed ANYCaRE (Anywhere Crisis and Risk Experiment), a role-playing game simulating a crisis management unit responsible for ensuring the safety of populations during weather crises. Simulated high-impact events include floods/flash floods and wind storms. A more complex scenario simulated cross-border CBRN hazards. Players take on the roles of representatives of the various organizations in the crisis unit. They must collectively choose the best options for ensuring people's safety in the face of a damaging and rapidly evolving event. The chronology adapted to the pace of the hazard under consideration: three successive rounds of play simulate and anticipate the evolution of the risk, from detection to impact.
The primary aim of the game was to assess the benefits of new forecasts and impact-based products in decision-making under pressure. The S-ANYCaRE version tested how public information from social media is used in emergency centers to decide on protection and risk communication. Since 2017, over 300 participants engaged in real-time decision-making exercises testing probabilistic forecasts and impact-based information in various settings, including European workshops, training courses, and emergency operations centers. Post-game investigation suggests that these forecasts, including crowdsourcing data, increase decision-makers confidence during the crisis. In the debriefing phase, stakeholders highlighted challenges in managing data overload and prioritizing actions.
The serious games approach developed in this study proved valuable in fostering interdisciplinary cooperation and raising awareness about the complexities of managing weather-related emergencies. The playing scenarios require strategic thinking amidst uncertainty, facilitating a better understanding of flood crisis management. Therefore, we envisage using game sessions for multiple purposes, including the sensibilization of participants to the challenges of managing weather emergencies, facilitating cooperation between developers and end-users for the development of efficient pre-operational forecast products, and training civil protection authorities and stakeholders in new disaster management tools.
The evolution of PICSCaRE, a version of the game simulating a recent flood catastrophe in southern France, into a participative simulation tool marks a significant advancement. This tool, combining the tabletop role-playing game with a digital agent-based behavior simulator currently under development, will enable players to test the effectiveness of their crisis management and communication measures on individual responses and the frequency of endangerment situations.
This study presents the stages of development of this hybrid version and its potential to raise awareness of the variety of behavioral responses to changing hydrometeorological circumstances and associated socio-economic impacts. We envisage that integrating serious games into routine flood crisis management exercises enhances decision-making skills and preparedness. In particular, combining impact models with serious games would foster better risk communication and adaptive strategies. As hydrometeorological events increase in frequency and severity, innovative approaches like simulation games are crucial for reducing socio-economic vulnerabilities in a changing climate.
How to cite: Terti, G., Ruin, I., Gaudou, B., Grancher, D., Bodini, D., Nicolle, P., and Payrastre, O.: Improving decision-making during high-impact hydrometeorological events: A series of serious games for flood crisis management exercises, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-68, 2024.
Effective decision-making during high-impact hydrometeorological events such as floods is crucial to mitigate adverse socio-economic impacts. Traditional approaches often fall short of providing adequate guidance under uncertain conditions. In this study, we explore the effectiveness of cooperative gaming in enhancing decision-making processes during such crises.
As part of the European ANYWHERE project, we developed ANYCaRE (Anywhere Crisis and Risk Experiment), a role-playing game simulating a crisis management unit responsible for ensuring the safety of populations during weather crises. Simulated high-impact events include floods/flash floods and wind storms. A more complex scenario simulated cross-border CBRN hazards. Players take on the roles of representatives of the various organizations in the crisis unit. They must collectively choose the best options for ensuring people's safety in the face of a damaging and rapidly evolving event. The chronology adapted to the pace of the hazard under consideration: three successive rounds of play simulate and anticipate the evolution of the risk, from detection to impact.
The primary aim of the game was to assess the benefits of new forecasts and impact-based products in decision-making under pressure. The S-ANYCaRE version tested how public information from social media is used in emergency centers to decide on protection and risk communication. Since 2017, over 300 participants engaged in real-time decision-making exercises testing probabilistic forecasts and impact-based information in various settings, including European workshops, training courses, and emergency operations centers. Post-game investigation suggests that these forecasts, including crowdsourcing data, increase decision-makers confidence during the crisis. In the debriefing phase, stakeholders highlighted challenges in managing data overload and prioritizing actions.
The serious games approach developed in this study proved valuable in fostering interdisciplinary cooperation and raising awareness about the complexities of managing weather-related emergencies. The playing scenarios require strategic thinking amidst uncertainty, facilitating a better understanding of flood crisis management. Therefore, we envisage using game sessions for multiple purposes, including the sensibilization of participants to the challenges of managing weather emergencies, facilitating cooperation between developers and end-users for the development of efficient pre-operational forecast products, and training civil protection authorities and stakeholders in new disaster management tools.
The evolution of PICSCaRE, a version of the game simulating a recent flood catastrophe in southern France, into a participative simulation tool marks a significant advancement. This tool, combining the tabletop role-playing game with a digital agent-based behavior simulator currently under development, will enable players to test the effectiveness of their crisis management and communication measures on individual responses and the frequency of endangerment situations.
This study presents the stages of development of this hybrid version and its potential to raise awareness of the variety of behavioral responses to changing hydrometeorological circumstances and associated socio-economic impacts. We envisage that integrating serious games into routine flood crisis management exercises enhances decision-making skills and preparedness. In particular, combining impact models with serious games would foster better risk communication and adaptive strategies. As hydrometeorological events increase in frequency and severity, innovative approaches like simulation games are crucial for reducing socio-economic vulnerabilities in a changing climate.
How to cite: Terti, G., Ruin, I., Gaudou, B., Grancher, D., Bodini, D., Nicolle, P., and Payrastre, O.: Improving decision-making during high-impact hydrometeorological events: A series of serious games for flood crisis management exercises, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-68, 2024.
Plinius18-42 | Posters | PL4
Comparative Analysis of Human Vulnerability to floods and landslides in Southern Italy: A Multi-Decadal StudyGraziella Emanuela Scarcella, Giovanni Cosentini, Enzo Valente, and Olga Petrucci
Severe storms can cause territorial crisis encompassing the occurrence of phenomena such as floods and landslides (F&L), resulting in significant damage to human life and property. While existing literature often separately analyzes floods and landslides due to their distinct mechanisms, forecasting methods, and preventive measures, there is a growing recognition of the need for a multi-hazard approach to enhance risk management planning. Particularly prevalent in regions with susceptible geomorphological features and specific climatic conditions, such as the Mediterranean, F&L pose substantial threats, further exacerbated by projected climate change impacts. This study focuses on the region of Calabria, Southern Italy, prone to frequent occurrences of F&L, aiming to assess the evolving impacts of these events on the population over time. We started the research by hypothesizing that shifts in societies, land use, policies, and population habits may change F&L impact on individuals over the years, either increasing or decreasing.
Utilizing systematic analysis of regional newspapers and historical archives spanning two decades (1951-1960 and 2011-2020), we constructed a database categorizing the impact of F&L into three severity levels: fatalities, injuries, and involvement in F&L related incidents. Narratives of events were disaggregated to describe victim profiles and accident circumstances. Despite variations in data availability and reliability between the two study periods, our analysis revealed insights into human vulnerability to F&L and emphasized the importance of systematic data collection for informed risk reduction strategies.
Comparing the two periods, we found a significant decrease in fatalities between 1951-1960 (around 200 in 10 years) and 2011-2020 (around 20 in 10 years), accompanied by increased information on injuries and individuals involved in F&L events in the latter period. This result underscores potential shifts in societal dynamics, land use, policies, and population habits impacting people vulnerability to F&L.
Our study proposes a methodological approach, applicable to other Mediterranean or non-Mediterranean regions, to identify vulnerabilities in interactions between people and F&L during severe rainfall events. By focusing on people's behavior and its evolution over time, this approach provides valuable insights for planning customized informative campaigns aimed at enhancing awareness and improving precautionary behaviors and self-rescue strategies in flood and landslide scenarios.
***This work was funded by the Next Generation EU—Italian NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.5, call for the creation and strengthening of ‘Innovation Ecosystems’, building ‘Territorial R&D Leaders’ (Directorial Decree n. 2021/3277)—project Tech4You—Technologies for climate change adaptation and quality of life improvement, n. ECS0000009. This work reflects only the authors' views and opinions, neither the Ministry for University and Research nor the European Commission can be considered responsible for them.
How to cite: Scarcella, G. E., Cosentini, G., Valente, E., and Petrucci, O.: Comparative Analysis of Human Vulnerability to floods and landslides in Southern Italy: A Multi-Decadal Study, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-42, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-42, 2024.
Severe storms can cause territorial crisis encompassing the occurrence of phenomena such as floods and landslides (F&L), resulting in significant damage to human life and property. While existing literature often separately analyzes floods and landslides due to their distinct mechanisms, forecasting methods, and preventive measures, there is a growing recognition of the need for a multi-hazard approach to enhance risk management planning. Particularly prevalent in regions with susceptible geomorphological features and specific climatic conditions, such as the Mediterranean, F&L pose substantial threats, further exacerbated by projected climate change impacts. This study focuses on the region of Calabria, Southern Italy, prone to frequent occurrences of F&L, aiming to assess the evolving impacts of these events on the population over time. We started the research by hypothesizing that shifts in societies, land use, policies, and population habits may change F&L impact on individuals over the years, either increasing or decreasing.
Utilizing systematic analysis of regional newspapers and historical archives spanning two decades (1951-1960 and 2011-2020), we constructed a database categorizing the impact of F&L into three severity levels: fatalities, injuries, and involvement in F&L related incidents. Narratives of events were disaggregated to describe victim profiles and accident circumstances. Despite variations in data availability and reliability between the two study periods, our analysis revealed insights into human vulnerability to F&L and emphasized the importance of systematic data collection for informed risk reduction strategies.
Comparing the two periods, we found a significant decrease in fatalities between 1951-1960 (around 200 in 10 years) and 2011-2020 (around 20 in 10 years), accompanied by increased information on injuries and individuals involved in F&L events in the latter period. This result underscores potential shifts in societal dynamics, land use, policies, and population habits impacting people vulnerability to F&L.
Our study proposes a methodological approach, applicable to other Mediterranean or non-Mediterranean regions, to identify vulnerabilities in interactions between people and F&L during severe rainfall events. By focusing on people's behavior and its evolution over time, this approach provides valuable insights for planning customized informative campaigns aimed at enhancing awareness and improving precautionary behaviors and self-rescue strategies in flood and landslide scenarios.
***This work was funded by the Next Generation EU—Italian NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.5, call for the creation and strengthening of ‘Innovation Ecosystems’, building ‘Territorial R&D Leaders’ (Directorial Decree n. 2021/3277)—project Tech4You—Technologies for climate change adaptation and quality of life improvement, n. ECS0000009. This work reflects only the authors' views and opinions, neither the Ministry for University and Research nor the European Commission can be considered responsible for them.
How to cite: Scarcella, G. E., Cosentini, G., Valente, E., and Petrucci, O.: Comparative Analysis of Human Vulnerability to floods and landslides in Southern Italy: A Multi-Decadal Study, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-42, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-42, 2024.
Plinius18-67 | Orals | PL4
Fine-grained information collection from social media for supporting integrated approaches to flood risk analysisMargherita Lombardo, Francesco Chiaravalloti, Vincenzo Totaro, and Olga Petrucci
Research in flood mitigation techniques is increasingly focused in investigating how proactive and bottom-up approaches can be effectively integrated in flood risk management. In particular, the role of stakeholders and communities has been recognized as relevant in planning strategies for risk prevention and management. In this framework, the scientific community is recognizing the added value of non-authoritative and unconventional sources to obtain precious details about flood events, including citizen contribution at different levels of engagement. Despite the high amount of information potentially retrievable, this research field still suffers from systematic data collection, especially in urban areas. In fact, citizens are rarely actively involved in monitoring programs, and their contribution is often limited to a spontaneous sharing of photos and videos on social platforms during or after the events. Despite not being systematically organized, these sources of information can support various applications related to flood studies, involving not only hydraulic and hydrological aspects but also the human dimension. Literature covering methods and applications exploiting social media data in different fields is widely diffused, including topics as flood mapping, flood modelling (constraint, calibration, and validation), risk assessment (vulnerability, hazard, impacts or damages), and human reactions to flood occurrence (sentiment analysis, human behavior), with the potential of applications for emergency management. However, research on this topic is often focused only single aspects, whereas an integrated perspective is needed to accomplish the requirements of flood risk management, which calls for information that is both physical and related to human response. In this study, a workflow is proposed for a systematic collection and analysis of video content to support the retrieval of different kind of fine-grained information about flood events dynamics and their impacts. The workflow applied to the case study of Crotone (southern Italy), which experienced a severe urban flood in 2020, produced an example of a georeferenced information collection, potentially suitable for integrated analysis on flood risk. Our research provides further insights about strengths and limitations of crowdsourced information and its potential role in the design of flood risk mitigation strategies.
How to cite: Lombardo, M., Chiaravalloti, F., Totaro, V., and Petrucci, O.: Fine-grained information collection from social media for supporting integrated approaches to flood risk analysis, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-67, 2024.
Research in flood mitigation techniques is increasingly focused in investigating how proactive and bottom-up approaches can be effectively integrated in flood risk management. In particular, the role of stakeholders and communities has been recognized as relevant in planning strategies for risk prevention and management. In this framework, the scientific community is recognizing the added value of non-authoritative and unconventional sources to obtain precious details about flood events, including citizen contribution at different levels of engagement. Despite the high amount of information potentially retrievable, this research field still suffers from systematic data collection, especially in urban areas. In fact, citizens are rarely actively involved in monitoring programs, and their contribution is often limited to a spontaneous sharing of photos and videos on social platforms during or after the events. Despite not being systematically organized, these sources of information can support various applications related to flood studies, involving not only hydraulic and hydrological aspects but also the human dimension. Literature covering methods and applications exploiting social media data in different fields is widely diffused, including topics as flood mapping, flood modelling (constraint, calibration, and validation), risk assessment (vulnerability, hazard, impacts or damages), and human reactions to flood occurrence (sentiment analysis, human behavior), with the potential of applications for emergency management. However, research on this topic is often focused only single aspects, whereas an integrated perspective is needed to accomplish the requirements of flood risk management, which calls for information that is both physical and related to human response. In this study, a workflow is proposed for a systematic collection and analysis of video content to support the retrieval of different kind of fine-grained information about flood events dynamics and their impacts. The workflow applied to the case study of Crotone (southern Italy), which experienced a severe urban flood in 2020, produced an example of a georeferenced information collection, potentially suitable for integrated analysis on flood risk. Our research provides further insights about strengths and limitations of crowdsourced information and its potential role in the design of flood risk mitigation strategies.
How to cite: Lombardo, M., Chiaravalloti, F., Totaro, V., and Petrucci, O.: Fine-grained information collection from social media for supporting integrated approaches to flood risk analysis, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-67, 2024.
Plinius18-83 | Orals | PL4
Enhancing the engagement of citizens in weather data collection: the AGORA and I-CHANGE Projects approachMassimo Milelli, Elena Oberto, Francesco Uboldi, Lara Polo, Antonio Parodi, Marianna Adinolfi, and Paola Mercogliano
Citizen science is a powerful tool for promoting the understanding of urban climate and potential climate change hazards. By engaging citizens in scientific research and data collection, we can harness the collective power of communities to gather valuable information and contribute to our knowledge of urban climate dynamics.
The H2020 I-CHANGE project (Individual Change of HAbits Needed for Green European transition, https://ichange-project.eu/) faces the challenge of engaging and promoting the active participation of citizens for addressing climate change, sustainable development and environmental protection in the framework of the European Green Deal, the European Climate Pact and the European Biodiversity Strategy for 2030.
Also the HE project AGORA (A Gathering place to cO-design and co-cReate Adaptation, https://adaptationagora.eu/) has the ambition to contribute in building climate change adaptation roadmaps by fostering the participation and engagement of citizens and stakeholders in the co-design and co-creation of innovative problem-oriented climate adaptation solutions.
In this framework, citizens can be trained, in the I-CHANGE project, to collect weather data using simple, low-cost monitoring tools. This data can then be aggregated and analysed to identify trends, patterns, and potential climate change hazards specific to urban areas. On the other hand, in the AGORA project, citizens can contribute to populate inventories on climate data, climate risks and climate adaptation and to develop the Digital Academy focused on a proper usage of climate data. Engaging citizens in this process fosters a sense of ownership and responsibility for their environment while also increasing their awareness of the impacts of climate change. By actively participating in data collection, citizens gain firsthand experience of how climate variables affect their daily lives and communities. Moreover, citizen science initiatives can be integrated into educational programs at schools, allowing students to actively participate in scientific research and contribute to the understanding of urban climate.
Leveraging technology can enhance citizen engagement and data collection. Mobile applications and online platforms can be developed to facilitate data entry, provide real-time information, and encourage collaboration among participants. These digital tools make it easier for citizens to contribute to ongoing research efforts, access educational resources, and visualize the collected data, further promoting understanding of urban climate dynamics. All these “non-standard” measurements can be used (after a strict quality control) to enrich the official network in areas where it is more needed. In this work we will focus on urban areas to show how data collected by citizens can help in understanding the Urban Heat Island effect, also in relation to Heat Waves.
How to cite: Milelli, M., Oberto, E., Uboldi, F., Polo, L., Parodi, A., Adinolfi, M., and Mercogliano, P.: Enhancing the engagement of citizens in weather data collection: the AGORA and I-CHANGE Projects approach, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-83, 2024.
Citizen science is a powerful tool for promoting the understanding of urban climate and potential climate change hazards. By engaging citizens in scientific research and data collection, we can harness the collective power of communities to gather valuable information and contribute to our knowledge of urban climate dynamics.
The H2020 I-CHANGE project (Individual Change of HAbits Needed for Green European transition, https://ichange-project.eu/) faces the challenge of engaging and promoting the active participation of citizens for addressing climate change, sustainable development and environmental protection in the framework of the European Green Deal, the European Climate Pact and the European Biodiversity Strategy for 2030.
Also the HE project AGORA (A Gathering place to cO-design and co-cReate Adaptation, https://adaptationagora.eu/) has the ambition to contribute in building climate change adaptation roadmaps by fostering the participation and engagement of citizens and stakeholders in the co-design and co-creation of innovative problem-oriented climate adaptation solutions.
In this framework, citizens can be trained, in the I-CHANGE project, to collect weather data using simple, low-cost monitoring tools. This data can then be aggregated and analysed to identify trends, patterns, and potential climate change hazards specific to urban areas. On the other hand, in the AGORA project, citizens can contribute to populate inventories on climate data, climate risks and climate adaptation and to develop the Digital Academy focused on a proper usage of climate data. Engaging citizens in this process fosters a sense of ownership and responsibility for their environment while also increasing their awareness of the impacts of climate change. By actively participating in data collection, citizens gain firsthand experience of how climate variables affect their daily lives and communities. Moreover, citizen science initiatives can be integrated into educational programs at schools, allowing students to actively participate in scientific research and contribute to the understanding of urban climate.
Leveraging technology can enhance citizen engagement and data collection. Mobile applications and online platforms can be developed to facilitate data entry, provide real-time information, and encourage collaboration among participants. These digital tools make it easier for citizens to contribute to ongoing research efforts, access educational resources, and visualize the collected data, further promoting understanding of urban climate dynamics. All these “non-standard” measurements can be used (after a strict quality control) to enrich the official network in areas where it is more needed. In this work we will focus on urban areas to show how data collected by citizens can help in understanding the Urban Heat Island effect, also in relation to Heat Waves.
How to cite: Milelli, M., Oberto, E., Uboldi, F., Polo, L., Parodi, A., Adinolfi, M., and Mercogliano, P.: Enhancing the engagement of citizens in weather data collection: the AGORA and I-CHANGE Projects approach, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-83, 2024.
Plinius18-47 | Orals | PL4
OCEANIDS: Empowering Citizen-Driven Climate Resilience and Inclusive Governance for a Sustainable Blue Economy in Mediterranean Coastal RegionsEirini Marinou, Polychronis Kolokoussis, Christos Kontopoulos, and Vasiliki (Betty) Charalampopoulou
The main objective of the OCEANIDS project is to develop user-driven applications and tools, aiming to enhance and facilitate regional authorities and stakeholders, fostering a systemic pathway that promotes resilience and inclusivity leading to a Blue Economy in coastal regions. The project focuses on facilitating a comprehensive seascape management approach by integrating spatial and non-spatial data and diverse services into a single-access window platform for Climate-Informed Maritime Spatial Planning (CI-MSP). The core innovation is the OCEANIDS Decision Support Platform (O-DSP) which focuses on the harmonization and curation of climate and meteorological data services, making them accessible, reusable, and interoperable to support local adaptation strategies. OCEANIDS enhances adaptive capacities and supports transformative innovations by providing critical access to knowledge, data, and digital services essential for understanding and managing climate risks. The project emphasizes inclusivity as a pivotal factor in advancing a Blue Economy, focusing on both individual and systemic behavioural changes, enabling participating regions and communities to better understand and use potential social tipping points to accelerate transformative changes towards climate resilience. OCEANIDS focuses on promoting inclusive and deliberative governance through meaningful engagement and dialogue between citizens and stakeholders. This shall be achieved via case-specific tools, such as ephemeral social networks, which support local citizens' assemblies for bottom-up deliberation promoting this way civic engagement, and empowering individuals to take action within their communities. Moreover, OCEANIDS contributes to mobilizing sustainable finance and resources, aiming to scale adaptation efforts and close the climate protection gap. The project’s multidisciplinary approach aligns with Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) objectives, climate change adaptation, and sustainable development, providing a robust framework for enhancing resilience to mitigate risks in Mediterranean coastal regions.
How to cite: Marinou, E., Kolokoussis, P., Kontopoulos, C., and Charalampopoulou, V. (.: OCEANIDS: Empowering Citizen-Driven Climate Resilience and Inclusive Governance for a Sustainable Blue Economy in Mediterranean Coastal Regions, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-47, 2024.
The main objective of the OCEANIDS project is to develop user-driven applications and tools, aiming to enhance and facilitate regional authorities and stakeholders, fostering a systemic pathway that promotes resilience and inclusivity leading to a Blue Economy in coastal regions. The project focuses on facilitating a comprehensive seascape management approach by integrating spatial and non-spatial data and diverse services into a single-access window platform for Climate-Informed Maritime Spatial Planning (CI-MSP). The core innovation is the OCEANIDS Decision Support Platform (O-DSP) which focuses on the harmonization and curation of climate and meteorological data services, making them accessible, reusable, and interoperable to support local adaptation strategies. OCEANIDS enhances adaptive capacities and supports transformative innovations by providing critical access to knowledge, data, and digital services essential for understanding and managing climate risks. The project emphasizes inclusivity as a pivotal factor in advancing a Blue Economy, focusing on both individual and systemic behavioural changes, enabling participating regions and communities to better understand and use potential social tipping points to accelerate transformative changes towards climate resilience. OCEANIDS focuses on promoting inclusive and deliberative governance through meaningful engagement and dialogue between citizens and stakeholders. This shall be achieved via case-specific tools, such as ephemeral social networks, which support local citizens' assemblies for bottom-up deliberation promoting this way civic engagement, and empowering individuals to take action within their communities. Moreover, OCEANIDS contributes to mobilizing sustainable finance and resources, aiming to scale adaptation efforts and close the climate protection gap. The project’s multidisciplinary approach aligns with Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) objectives, climate change adaptation, and sustainable development, providing a robust framework for enhancing resilience to mitigate risks in Mediterranean coastal regions.
How to cite: Marinou, E., Kolokoussis, P., Kontopoulos, C., and Charalampopoulou, V. (.: OCEANIDS: Empowering Citizen-Driven Climate Resilience and Inclusive Governance for a Sustainable Blue Economy in Mediterranean Coastal Regions, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-47, 2024.
Plinius18-94 | Orals | PL4
Living Labs and citizen science to activate change of individual habits in a context of Climate Change: the I-CHANGE DayLaura Esbri, Maria Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Raül Marcos, Yolanda Sola, Muhammad Adnan, Gabriel Campos, Carlo Cintolesi, Sara Dorato, Anna Mölter, Lara Polo, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Bio Mohamadou Torou, Silvana Di Sabatino, and Antonio Parodi and the I-CHNAGE Living Labs
Urban Living Labs are vital collaborative spaces where citizens, researchers, and stakeholders join forces to tackle local challenges, but of wide interest for different socio-economic and climatic context. By involving citizens, Living Labs ensure that solutions align closely with individuals needs and priorities, fostering community engagement and ownership. Additionally, these Labs serve as innovation hubs, bringing together diverse expertise to drive forward creative and effective strategies.
The I-CHANGE (Individual Change of HAbits Needed for Green European transition, 2021-2025) H2020 project aims to foster active citizen participation in addressing climate change-related issues. Through engaging citizens and local stakeholders, the project promotes behavioral and consumption shifts towards sustainability, utilizing citizen science experiments and campaigns. This is facilitated through a network of Living Labs situated in various socio-economic and geographical contexts, including Barcelona (Spain), Bologna (Italy), Genoa (Italy) and Jerusalem (Israel) along the Mediterranean basin and the cities of Amsterdam (the Netherlands), Dublin (Ireland), Hasselt (Belgium) and Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso). The Living Labs involve citizens, civil society, industry and public administration, playing a crucial role in transitioning to more sustainable behaviors.
One of the project initiatives has been the cooperation of the eight Living Labs for the organization of the I-CHANGE Day in the framework of the European Green Week, a joint effort to work in common campaigns and citizen science activities using low-cost sensors for measuring meteorological and air pollution variables. During this day, all the Living Labs participating in the project have engaged citizens within common citizen science campaigns. The project has chosen a meaningful date for this occasion, June the 5th 2024, the World Environmental Day.
The first proposed joint campaign was related to air pollution measurement in the cities of the Living Labs. Low-cost air quality sensors have been installed in Barcelona, Bologna, Genoa, Dublin, and Ouagadougou cities and have collected data for a common period until the I-CHANGE Day. The main objective was to compare the level of air pollution in the different regions where the sensors are installed and use these data for citizen engagement. This engagement increased citizens’ sensitization to the impacts of air pollution and the importance of advocating for more sustainable behaviours in their communities. A detailed protocol has been developed to guide the campaign through its different phases.
The second common campaign was a citizen-science experiment where citizens from Amsterdam, Barcelona, Bologna, Dublin, Genoa, Hasselt, Jerusalem, and Ouagadougou collected high spatio-temporal resolution data of temperature, humidity, and pressure to investigate temperature perception in specific areas of each city, the role played by temperature and humidity, and reflect on the social use of those spaces. The comparison between the locations selected and their social usages have provided critical information on the relevance of spaces for the different communities. Evaluating temperature perception and comparing it with collected data can provide insights for developing novel solutions and assess the effectiveness of already implemented natural-based solutions in the urban areas.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement 101037193
How to cite: Esbri, L., Llasat, M. C., Llasat-Botija, M., Marcos, R., Sola, Y., Adnan, M., Campos, G., Cintolesi, C., Dorato, S., Mölter, A., Polo, L., Steeneveld, G.-J., Torou, B. M., Di Sabatino, S., and Parodi, A. and the I-CHNAGE Living Labs: Living Labs and citizen science to activate change of individual habits in a context of Climate Change: the I-CHANGE Day , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-94, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-94, 2024.
Urban Living Labs are vital collaborative spaces where citizens, researchers, and stakeholders join forces to tackle local challenges, but of wide interest for different socio-economic and climatic context. By involving citizens, Living Labs ensure that solutions align closely with individuals needs and priorities, fostering community engagement and ownership. Additionally, these Labs serve as innovation hubs, bringing together diverse expertise to drive forward creative and effective strategies.
The I-CHANGE (Individual Change of HAbits Needed for Green European transition, 2021-2025) H2020 project aims to foster active citizen participation in addressing climate change-related issues. Through engaging citizens and local stakeholders, the project promotes behavioral and consumption shifts towards sustainability, utilizing citizen science experiments and campaigns. This is facilitated through a network of Living Labs situated in various socio-economic and geographical contexts, including Barcelona (Spain), Bologna (Italy), Genoa (Italy) and Jerusalem (Israel) along the Mediterranean basin and the cities of Amsterdam (the Netherlands), Dublin (Ireland), Hasselt (Belgium) and Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso). The Living Labs involve citizens, civil society, industry and public administration, playing a crucial role in transitioning to more sustainable behaviors.
One of the project initiatives has been the cooperation of the eight Living Labs for the organization of the I-CHANGE Day in the framework of the European Green Week, a joint effort to work in common campaigns and citizen science activities using low-cost sensors for measuring meteorological and air pollution variables. During this day, all the Living Labs participating in the project have engaged citizens within common citizen science campaigns. The project has chosen a meaningful date for this occasion, June the 5th 2024, the World Environmental Day.
The first proposed joint campaign was related to air pollution measurement in the cities of the Living Labs. Low-cost air quality sensors have been installed in Barcelona, Bologna, Genoa, Dublin, and Ouagadougou cities and have collected data for a common period until the I-CHANGE Day. The main objective was to compare the level of air pollution in the different regions where the sensors are installed and use these data for citizen engagement. This engagement increased citizens’ sensitization to the impacts of air pollution and the importance of advocating for more sustainable behaviours in their communities. A detailed protocol has been developed to guide the campaign through its different phases.
The second common campaign was a citizen-science experiment where citizens from Amsterdam, Barcelona, Bologna, Dublin, Genoa, Hasselt, Jerusalem, and Ouagadougou collected high spatio-temporal resolution data of temperature, humidity, and pressure to investigate temperature perception in specific areas of each city, the role played by temperature and humidity, and reflect on the social use of those spaces. The comparison between the locations selected and their social usages have provided critical information on the relevance of spaces for the different communities. Evaluating temperature perception and comparing it with collected data can provide insights for developing novel solutions and assess the effectiveness of already implemented natural-based solutions in the urban areas.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement 101037193
How to cite: Esbri, L., Llasat, M. C., Llasat-Botija, M., Marcos, R., Sola, Y., Adnan, M., Campos, G., Cintolesi, C., Dorato, S., Mölter, A., Polo, L., Steeneveld, G.-J., Torou, B. M., Di Sabatino, S., and Parodi, A. and the I-CHNAGE Living Labs: Living Labs and citizen science to activate change of individual habits in a context of Climate Change: the I-CHANGE Day , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-94, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-94, 2024.
Plinius18-96 | Orals | PL4
Climate Change perception in different Italian macro-areasMaria Teresa Carone, Loredana Antronico, Roberto Coscarelli, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Melissa Sessa, and Paola Salvati
In recent decades, Climate Change is causing the increasing of frequency and intensity of weather-related extreme events, exposing several populations to risk. Therefore, measures to mitigate the impacts resulting from this phenomenon are increasingly necessary.
To devise effective strategies, it is essential to consider that many losses are due to numerous factors, including economic and social ones. A crucial role is played by the behaviors adopted by people, and the extent to which people are willing to make changes to their lifestyles.
Therefore, mitigation measures to be truly effective should include important non-structural actions. This refers to strategies that work on social aspects of communities that influence their resilience. There are many elements that influence social resilience, and among them risk perception plays a crucial role. Risk perception, however, is linked to numerous other aspects such as propensity to prepare for the event with adaptation measures, awareness and knowledge, good communication and information, trust in institutions, cultural background, and even having experienced a previous disaster. Moreover, the literature points out that these aspects are strongly influenced by gender and socio-economic differences related to the specific involved area. Therefore, understanding these differences is a key for the implementation of effective climate change adaptation strategies.
To achieve this, a nationwide survey on risk perception related to Climate Change was carried out to better understand the aspects listed above. Data were collected by administering interviews conducted between April 12 and 19, 2023 using CATI/CAMI/CAWI methodology to a representative sample of the Italian population and then weighted to be representative for the overall sample. The results refer to the adult population (1279 interviews) divided by gender and by Italian territorial macro-areas (NW, NE, Center, South, Islands).
The obtained results and the differences noted between genders and different Italian macro-areas provide a fundamental basis for better calibration of climate change adaptation measures aimed at increasing the resilience of Italian population.
How to cite: Carone, M. T., Antronico, L., Coscarelli, R., Gariano, S. L., Sessa, M., and Salvati, P.: Climate Change perception in different Italian macro-areas, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-96, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-96, 2024.
In recent decades, Climate Change is causing the increasing of frequency and intensity of weather-related extreme events, exposing several populations to risk. Therefore, measures to mitigate the impacts resulting from this phenomenon are increasingly necessary.
To devise effective strategies, it is essential to consider that many losses are due to numerous factors, including economic and social ones. A crucial role is played by the behaviors adopted by people, and the extent to which people are willing to make changes to their lifestyles.
Therefore, mitigation measures to be truly effective should include important non-structural actions. This refers to strategies that work on social aspects of communities that influence their resilience. There are many elements that influence social resilience, and among them risk perception plays a crucial role. Risk perception, however, is linked to numerous other aspects such as propensity to prepare for the event with adaptation measures, awareness and knowledge, good communication and information, trust in institutions, cultural background, and even having experienced a previous disaster. Moreover, the literature points out that these aspects are strongly influenced by gender and socio-economic differences related to the specific involved area. Therefore, understanding these differences is a key for the implementation of effective climate change adaptation strategies.
To achieve this, a nationwide survey on risk perception related to Climate Change was carried out to better understand the aspects listed above. Data were collected by administering interviews conducted between April 12 and 19, 2023 using CATI/CAMI/CAWI methodology to a representative sample of the Italian population and then weighted to be representative for the overall sample. The results refer to the adult population (1279 interviews) divided by gender and by Italian territorial macro-areas (NW, NE, Center, South, Islands).
The obtained results and the differences noted between genders and different Italian macro-areas provide a fundamental basis for better calibration of climate change adaptation measures aimed at increasing the resilience of Italian population.
How to cite: Carone, M. T., Antronico, L., Coscarelli, R., Gariano, S. L., Sessa, M., and Salvati, P.: Climate Change perception in different Italian macro-areas, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-96, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-96, 2024.
Plinius18-108 | Orals | PL4
Climate change and overheating: A multi-level risk assessment of impacts on Greek citiesSofia Tsemekidi Tzeiranaki, Maria Papagou, and Theocharis Tsoutsos
Climate change and overheating pose significant risks and challenges for humans, for the
environment, and for contemporary cities. Among its consequences, urban overheating,
extreme weather events and heatwaves very often affect human life at various levels,
developing several societal, economic, and natural hazards. The Mediterranean region is one of
the most exposed to climate change risks areas in the world, due to its specific climate and
geographic characteristics in combination with the existing socio-economic gaps, population
growth and migration levels. Countries and cities located around the Mediterranean area
suffered from increased temperatures and heatwaves several times in recent years. Indicatively,
Cooling Degree Days -an indicator expressing the demand for space cooling due to increased
weather temperatures- have increased by around 57% since 1979 in Greece, according to
official statistics. Following the need to address these challenges, this study aims to identify and
evaluate the impacts and risks of overheating in the context of climate change in Greek cities. It
uses the method of Operational Risk Management in three steps. Firstly, it investigates the
hazards and risks of climate change through extended research in the recent literature,
classifying them to risks for humans (health, employment), environment (disaster of
ecosystems) and cities (building environment, economy, society). Secondly, the assessment of
the identified hazards is implemented through the evaluation done by different city stakeholders
involved in urban activities (public entities, research and academy, private sector, non-
governmental organizations, citizens). The results from the stakeholders are used at a later
stage for calculations, leading to a ranking of the hazards by importance/severity and by
probability of happening soon. The findings could shed light on the most vulnerable aspects of
the cities affected by climate change. This evaluation and the resulted ranking could be also an
important finding for policymakers to design and implement Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and
climate adaptation policies.
Keywords: climate change; heatwaves; Operational Risk Management; hazards severity
How to cite: Tsemekidi Tzeiranaki, S., Papagou, M., and Tsoutsos, T.: Climate change and overheating: A multi-level risk assessment of impacts on Greek cities, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-108, 2024.
Climate change and overheating pose significant risks and challenges for humans, for the
environment, and for contemporary cities. Among its consequences, urban overheating,
extreme weather events and heatwaves very often affect human life at various levels,
developing several societal, economic, and natural hazards. The Mediterranean region is one of
the most exposed to climate change risks areas in the world, due to its specific climate and
geographic characteristics in combination with the existing socio-economic gaps, population
growth and migration levels. Countries and cities located around the Mediterranean area
suffered from increased temperatures and heatwaves several times in recent years. Indicatively,
Cooling Degree Days -an indicator expressing the demand for space cooling due to increased
weather temperatures- have increased by around 57% since 1979 in Greece, according to
official statistics. Following the need to address these challenges, this study aims to identify and
evaluate the impacts and risks of overheating in the context of climate change in Greek cities. It
uses the method of Operational Risk Management in three steps. Firstly, it investigates the
hazards and risks of climate change through extended research in the recent literature,
classifying them to risks for humans (health, employment), environment (disaster of
ecosystems) and cities (building environment, economy, society). Secondly, the assessment of
the identified hazards is implemented through the evaluation done by different city stakeholders
involved in urban activities (public entities, research and academy, private sector, non-
governmental organizations, citizens). The results from the stakeholders are used at a later
stage for calculations, leading to a ranking of the hazards by importance/severity and by
probability of happening soon. The findings could shed light on the most vulnerable aspects of
the cities affected by climate change. This evaluation and the resulted ranking could be also an
important finding for policymakers to design and implement Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and
climate adaptation policies.
Keywords: climate change; heatwaves; Operational Risk Management; hazards severity
How to cite: Tsemekidi Tzeiranaki, S., Papagou, M., and Tsoutsos, T.: Climate change and overheating: A multi-level risk assessment of impacts on Greek cities, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-108, 2024.
Plinius18-117 | Orals | PL4
The Portuguese National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100Pedro M M Soares and the FCUL Team
As warming and drying future conditions may significantly affect the human and natural environment in the Mediterranean, the climate risks and vulnerabilities assessments are key to support adaptation strategies. In this context, the Portuguese National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100 (RNA2100) aimed at providing scientific support to adaptation policy exercises by (1) identifying and characterising climate change impacts on the most vulnerable domains in Portugal Mainland; (2) characterising socioeconomic impacts on different territorial scales and assess financial needs; and (3) contributing to the implementation of a National Spatial Planning Policy Programme. The most vulnerable domains focused by the RNA2100 include the coastal regions, water resources/agroforestry and wildfires. The RNA2100 followed three stages: regional climate scenarization, biophysical impacts for a number of sectors and hazards, and the economic analysis of selected impacts. The future projected climate for Portugal was characterized using a weighted multi-model multi-variable ensemble based on the EURO-CORDEX simulations, produced at 12 km resolution. One historical present climate period (1971-2000) and three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100), under three different scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), were considered. The biophysical impact modelling was performed for four climate impact sectors: coastal erosion and flooding, forest fires, water and agroforestry systems.
Climate change poses a significant threat to water resources and agroforestry in mainland Portugal. Southern regions, particularly beyond the Tagus River, will face more significant impacts, with the Water Exploitation Index plus (WEI+) potentially increasing by up to +99 percentage points under RCP8.5 or around +22 points under RCP4.5. Without adaptation, economic losses could average €426 million annually under the moderate mitigation scenario and approach €670 million under the high emissions scenario. Even meeting Paris Agreement targets could still result in yearly losses of €172 million by 2100. The discourse on climate adaptation and wildfire management in the five NUTS II regions emphasizes the importance of multifaceted strategies in confronting the escalating threat of wildfires exacerbated by climate change. The results emphasize the pivotal role of awareness initiatives with coercive measures is crucial to effectively reduce ignitions and mitigate projected losses (saving from 290,000 euros/year in A.M.L. to 88 million euros/year in Centro). Portuguese coastal areas are extensively vulnerable to climate change impacts, with projections showing up to 587 km2 (RCP4.5) and 604 km2 (RCP8.5) of vulnerable coastlines by the end of the 21st century. Adaptation is overall recommended at national scale, despite the different results yielded by the cost-benefit analysis, depending on the region. Total inaction costs (without adaptation) are projected to surpass 12000 million € (RCP4.5) and 14000 million € (RCP8.5) until 2100, in contrast with approximately 5000 million € (for both scenarios) of expected adaptation costs.
Acknowledgements
This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). The authors would like also to acknowledge the EEA-Financial Mechanism 2014–2021 and the Portuguese Environment Agency through the Pre-defined Project-2 National Roadmap for Adaptation XXI (PDP-2).
How to cite: Soares, P. M. M. and the FCUL Team: The Portuguese National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-117, 2024.
As warming and drying future conditions may significantly affect the human and natural environment in the Mediterranean, the climate risks and vulnerabilities assessments are key to support adaptation strategies. In this context, the Portuguese National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100 (RNA2100) aimed at providing scientific support to adaptation policy exercises by (1) identifying and characterising climate change impacts on the most vulnerable domains in Portugal Mainland; (2) characterising socioeconomic impacts on different territorial scales and assess financial needs; and (3) contributing to the implementation of a National Spatial Planning Policy Programme. The most vulnerable domains focused by the RNA2100 include the coastal regions, water resources/agroforestry and wildfires. The RNA2100 followed three stages: regional climate scenarization, biophysical impacts for a number of sectors and hazards, and the economic analysis of selected impacts. The future projected climate for Portugal was characterized using a weighted multi-model multi-variable ensemble based on the EURO-CORDEX simulations, produced at 12 km resolution. One historical present climate period (1971-2000) and three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100), under three different scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), were considered. The biophysical impact modelling was performed for four climate impact sectors: coastal erosion and flooding, forest fires, water and agroforestry systems.
Climate change poses a significant threat to water resources and agroforestry in mainland Portugal. Southern regions, particularly beyond the Tagus River, will face more significant impacts, with the Water Exploitation Index plus (WEI+) potentially increasing by up to +99 percentage points under RCP8.5 or around +22 points under RCP4.5. Without adaptation, economic losses could average €426 million annually under the moderate mitigation scenario and approach €670 million under the high emissions scenario. Even meeting Paris Agreement targets could still result in yearly losses of €172 million by 2100. The discourse on climate adaptation and wildfire management in the five NUTS II regions emphasizes the importance of multifaceted strategies in confronting the escalating threat of wildfires exacerbated by climate change. The results emphasize the pivotal role of awareness initiatives with coercive measures is crucial to effectively reduce ignitions and mitigate projected losses (saving from 290,000 euros/year in A.M.L. to 88 million euros/year in Centro). Portuguese coastal areas are extensively vulnerable to climate change impacts, with projections showing up to 587 km2 (RCP4.5) and 604 km2 (RCP8.5) of vulnerable coastlines by the end of the 21st century. Adaptation is overall recommended at national scale, despite the different results yielded by the cost-benefit analysis, depending on the region. Total inaction costs (without adaptation) are projected to surpass 12000 million € (RCP4.5) and 14000 million € (RCP8.5) until 2100, in contrast with approximately 5000 million € (for both scenarios) of expected adaptation costs.
Acknowledgements
This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). The authors would like also to acknowledge the EEA-Financial Mechanism 2014–2021 and the Portuguese Environment Agency through the Pre-defined Project-2 National Roadmap for Adaptation XXI (PDP-2).
How to cite: Soares, P. M. M. and the FCUL Team: The Portuguese National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-117, 2024.
Plinius18-125 | Orals | PL4
The role of space for Climate Resilience: a focus on the Mediterranean regionGabriele Redigonda, Lucas Bersegol, James Francis, Shadi Rochard, and Laura Corbett
For the first time in 2023, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addressed the specific impact of our changing climate on the Mediterranean Basin. According to the IPCC, this geographical area shows a unique (historical and) environmental identity, including physiographic and ecological features. Specifically, the Mediterranean region faces regional climate change-induced risks, surpassing the global average and accentuated by the area’s heightened vulnerability, not limited to the environmental aspects.
In this context, the natural ecosystem is confronted to a growing array of challenges from diverse nature: wildfires, floods, desertification. The repercussions extend beyond environmental concerns, directly jeopardizing national and regional security, and generating a cascade of economic, social, and political effects.
Space-based technologies play a significant role in addressing the challenges of climate resilience, as evidenced by the on-going implementation of over one hundred projects already using space solutions in Mediterranean countries. Ranging from the development of fully-fledged systems to smaller-scale local initiatives, these projects are aimed at addressing several of the above-mentioned challenges, depending on available resources and policy priorities.
Beyond providing insights on the plethora of space-based solutions currently used and planned to address climate resilience challenges, this paper will provide:
- An overview of how these projects are aligned with climate resilience challenges as identified and prioritised by Mediterranean countries in their climate policies. These encompass a spectrum of general and sectorial mitigation and adaptation strategies addressing climate-related concerns, complemented by security and disaster risk management policies.
- A gap analysis highlighting climate resilience challenges where space-based solutions still hold untapped potential.
- A series of policy recommendations to maximise the positive impact of space on climate resilience in the Mediterranean region, built on the outcomes of the research and elaborated together with representatives of relevant actors based in the selected countries.
How to cite: Redigonda, G., Bersegol, L., Francis, J., Rochard, S., and Corbett, L.: The role of space for Climate Resilience: a focus on the Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-125, 2024.
For the first time in 2023, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addressed the specific impact of our changing climate on the Mediterranean Basin. According to the IPCC, this geographical area shows a unique (historical and) environmental identity, including physiographic and ecological features. Specifically, the Mediterranean region faces regional climate change-induced risks, surpassing the global average and accentuated by the area’s heightened vulnerability, not limited to the environmental aspects.
In this context, the natural ecosystem is confronted to a growing array of challenges from diverse nature: wildfires, floods, desertification. The repercussions extend beyond environmental concerns, directly jeopardizing national and regional security, and generating a cascade of economic, social, and political effects.
Space-based technologies play a significant role in addressing the challenges of climate resilience, as evidenced by the on-going implementation of over one hundred projects already using space solutions in Mediterranean countries. Ranging from the development of fully-fledged systems to smaller-scale local initiatives, these projects are aimed at addressing several of the above-mentioned challenges, depending on available resources and policy priorities.
Beyond providing insights on the plethora of space-based solutions currently used and planned to address climate resilience challenges, this paper will provide:
- An overview of how these projects are aligned with climate resilience challenges as identified and prioritised by Mediterranean countries in their climate policies. These encompass a spectrum of general and sectorial mitigation and adaptation strategies addressing climate-related concerns, complemented by security and disaster risk management policies.
- A gap analysis highlighting climate resilience challenges where space-based solutions still hold untapped potential.
- A series of policy recommendations to maximise the positive impact of space on climate resilience in the Mediterranean region, built on the outcomes of the research and elaborated together with representatives of relevant actors based in the selected countries.
How to cite: Redigonda, G., Bersegol, L., Francis, J., Rochard, S., and Corbett, L.: The role of space for Climate Resilience: a focus on the Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-125, 2024.
Plinius18-52 | Orals | PL4
Analysis and comparison of the impact of floods and compound flood events on the Spanish Peninsular Mediterranean coastMontserrat Llasat-Botija, Maria Carmen Llasat, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Salvador Castán
The Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula covers a total of 1,609 km of coastline between the Spanish-French border and Gibraltar and is an area with increasing impacts related with extreme meteorological phenomena, but also linked to the socio-economic characteristics of the areas affected. It is an area with a high concentration of economic activities, especially tourism. On the other hand, this zone contains areas of high ecosystem value. All this means that natural hazards can cause more serious damage, both socio-economic and environmental. Understanding the compounding threats of floods, sea storms and other hydro-meteorological events in the Mediterranean is crucial in the context of climate change and has serious implications for coastal resilience.
This study examines the socio-economic impacts of compound events of floods, wind and sea storms on coastal communities. First, this communication presents the process of identifying these events carried out in the framework of C3Riskmed project, including the role of new sources of information such as citizen science, social networks or historical landmarks. The economic impact of these events has been analysed using the Insurance Compensation Consortium (CCS). The analysis of remarkability, which was assessed using a remarkability criterion that integrates physical and socio-economic variables, is also presented. To finish, an analysis of the similarities and differences in the impact of these different events (in terms of economic impact, fatalities or damage to selected natural areas) will be included.
This research has been done in the framework of the C3Riskmed project, Grant PID2020-113638RB-C22 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033.
How to cite: Llasat-Botija, M., Llasat, M. C., Marcos-Matamoros, R., and Castán, S.: Analysis and comparison of the impact of floods and compound flood events on the Spanish Peninsular Mediterranean coast, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-52, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-52, 2024.
The Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula covers a total of 1,609 km of coastline between the Spanish-French border and Gibraltar and is an area with increasing impacts related with extreme meteorological phenomena, but also linked to the socio-economic characteristics of the areas affected. It is an area with a high concentration of economic activities, especially tourism. On the other hand, this zone contains areas of high ecosystem value. All this means that natural hazards can cause more serious damage, both socio-economic and environmental. Understanding the compounding threats of floods, sea storms and other hydro-meteorological events in the Mediterranean is crucial in the context of climate change and has serious implications for coastal resilience.
This study examines the socio-economic impacts of compound events of floods, wind and sea storms on coastal communities. First, this communication presents the process of identifying these events carried out in the framework of C3Riskmed project, including the role of new sources of information such as citizen science, social networks or historical landmarks. The economic impact of these events has been analysed using the Insurance Compensation Consortium (CCS). The analysis of remarkability, which was assessed using a remarkability criterion that integrates physical and socio-economic variables, is also presented. To finish, an analysis of the similarities and differences in the impact of these different events (in terms of economic impact, fatalities or damage to selected natural areas) will be included.
This research has been done in the framework of the C3Riskmed project, Grant PID2020-113638RB-C22 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033.
How to cite: Llasat-Botija, M., Llasat, M. C., Marcos-Matamoros, R., and Castán, S.: Analysis and comparison of the impact of floods and compound flood events on the Spanish Peninsular Mediterranean coast, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-52, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-52, 2024.
PL5 – Safeguarding and management of cultural and natural heritage at risk from climate extreme events
Plinius18-27 | Orals | PL5
Leveraging AI for Automated Structural Stability Risk Assessment in Historical CentersNikolaos Schetakis, Napoleon Papoutsakis, Merope Manataki, Nikos Papadopoulos, Georgios E. Stavroulakis, and Alessio Di Iorio
This research investigates the assessment of structural stability risks in buildings during natural disasters, with a particular focus on earthquakes, within historical centers. The objective is to create an accessible platform that can predictively create damage maps for blocks of buildings and large structures, enabling the prediction of damage and its impact on Cultural Heritage (CH) stability. The project seeks to generate risk maps for CH, emphasizing predictive damage mapping before natural disaster events occur under a variety of event scenarios. Methodologies have been devised to discern efficient and automated tools for harmonizing data, criteria, and indicators, thereby monitoring the influence of environmental changes on CH assets, encompassing structural stability and deterioration processes. This involves the integration of ground data (e.g., geotechnical and geological information), site-scale monitoring, satellite data (InSAR), and risk forecasting models (seismic models) to produce user-driven products like deformation maps, vulnerability assessments, and damage maps. Using AI-assisted models, the platform aims to enable ongoing inspection and monitoring of Cultural Heritage (CH) buildings for updating the vulnerability assessment.
How to cite: Schetakis, N., Papoutsakis, N., Manataki, M., Papadopoulos, N., Stavroulakis, G. E., and Di Iorio, A.: Leveraging AI for Automated Structural Stability Risk Assessment in Historical Centers, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-27, 2024.
This research investigates the assessment of structural stability risks in buildings during natural disasters, with a particular focus on earthquakes, within historical centers. The objective is to create an accessible platform that can predictively create damage maps for blocks of buildings and large structures, enabling the prediction of damage and its impact on Cultural Heritage (CH) stability. The project seeks to generate risk maps for CH, emphasizing predictive damage mapping before natural disaster events occur under a variety of event scenarios. Methodologies have been devised to discern efficient and automated tools for harmonizing data, criteria, and indicators, thereby monitoring the influence of environmental changes on CH assets, encompassing structural stability and deterioration processes. This involves the integration of ground data (e.g., geotechnical and geological information), site-scale monitoring, satellite data (InSAR), and risk forecasting models (seismic models) to produce user-driven products like deformation maps, vulnerability assessments, and damage maps. Using AI-assisted models, the platform aims to enable ongoing inspection and monitoring of Cultural Heritage (CH) buildings for updating the vulnerability assessment.
How to cite: Schetakis, N., Papoutsakis, N., Manataki, M., Papadopoulos, N., Stavroulakis, G. E., and Di Iorio, A.: Leveraging AI for Automated Structural Stability Risk Assessment in Historical Centers, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-27, 2024.
Plinius18-13 | Posters | PL5
A model of vernacular architecture resilience to impact of climate change and social challenges in the Mediterranean basin: the case study of the Trabocchi Coast (Abruzzo Region, Italy)Fernanda Prestileo, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eleonora Maria Stella, Luisa Irazú López Campos, Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Eleonora Aruffo, Piero Chiacchiaretta, Piero Di Carlo, and Stefano Dietrich
The Mediterranean basin is affected by extreme weather phenomena that are increasing in frequency and intensity. To the effects of these climate changes a broad response must be provided by the population, structures and infrastructure involved. Affecting a wide variety of issues, this increase therefore requires an interdisciplinary assessment of impacts (economic, social and environmental). In fact, climate change and land use are the main drivers of environmental and socioeconomic transformations of landscapes and coastal areas.
This study presents an interdisciplinary and participatory research methodology that analysed a coastal case study, the Trabocchi Coast (Abruzzo Region, Italy) characterized by a typical kind of vernacular architecture, the "trabocchi", increasingly threatened by climate change. The objective of the study was to assess the resilience of these coastal structures, "fishing machines" identified by the community as intangible cultural heritage, meaning their ability to cope with and adapt to changes while maintaining their identity and recognisability.
The adopted approach combined quantitative and qualitative data from meteorological analysis, literature review, and field surveys. The investigation of specific weather events was conducted considering both large-scale long-term analysis (using the ERA5 dataset) and small-scale short-term analysis (models and ground-based sensors). A participatory workshop with the population was organized by the authors at the Municipality of San Vito Chietino with the support of the Municipality itself, from which a significant part of the results emerged. The latter provided an overview of the relevant phenomena that have occurred in recent decades which, by posing a threat to this expression of cultural heritage due to climate change (sea level rise, coastal erosion, storms, flooding, and salinization) have, however, also presented challenges and opportunities for coastal development, stimulating various resilient responses by local communities.
Keywords: climate change; trabocchi; intangible cultural heritage; coastal areas; resilience; safeguarding adaptive strategies; heritage uses.
References
- Mascitelli A., Prestileo F., Stella E.M., Aruffo E., López Campos L.I., Federico S., Torcasio R.C., Corsi A., Di Carlo P., Dietrich S., Impact of Climate Change on the “Trabocchi Coast” (Italy): The Trabocco Turchino Case Study, Sustainability, 2023, 15, pp. 1-15 , https://doi.org/10.3390/su151410880
- Serafini L., Di Toro N., Not just wood. The fishing machines of the central Adriatic, in Roma, Capitale d’Italia 150 anni dopo. Preesistenze architettoniche. Aree archeologiche - Paesaggio, Bellanca C., Antonini Lanari C., Eds., Artemide, Rome, Italy, 2021; Volume 2, pp. 649-661.
- Forlani M.C., Progettare per l’ambiente costiero. Il recupero della cultura materiale e la valorizzazione delle risorse nella “Costa dei Trabocchi”, Edicom Edizioni, Monfalcone (Gorizia), 2022
- Prestileo F., Mascitelli A., Meli G., Petracca M., Giorgi C., Melfi D., Puca S., Dietrich , Resilience of Cultural Heritage in Extreme Weather Conditions: The Case of the UNESCO Villa Romana del Casale Archaeological Site’s Response to the Apollo Medicane in October 2021. In Proceedings of the Computational Science and Its Applications—ICCSA 2022 Workshops, Malaga, Spain, 4–7 July 2022; Gervasi, O., Murgante, B., Misra, S., Rocha, A.M.A.C., Garau, ., Eds.; Springer International Publishing:Cham, Switzerland, 2022; pp. 511–526.
How to cite: Prestileo, F., Mascitelli, A., Stella, E. M., López Campos, L. I., Federico, S., Torcasio, R. C., Aruffo, E., Chiacchiaretta, P., Di Carlo, P., and Dietrich, S.: A model of vernacular architecture resilience to impact of climate change and social challenges in the Mediterranean basin: the case study of the Trabocchi Coast (Abruzzo Region, Italy), 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-13, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-13, 2024.
The Mediterranean basin is affected by extreme weather phenomena that are increasing in frequency and intensity. To the effects of these climate changes a broad response must be provided by the population, structures and infrastructure involved. Affecting a wide variety of issues, this increase therefore requires an interdisciplinary assessment of impacts (economic, social and environmental). In fact, climate change and land use are the main drivers of environmental and socioeconomic transformations of landscapes and coastal areas.
This study presents an interdisciplinary and participatory research methodology that analysed a coastal case study, the Trabocchi Coast (Abruzzo Region, Italy) characterized by a typical kind of vernacular architecture, the "trabocchi", increasingly threatened by climate change. The objective of the study was to assess the resilience of these coastal structures, "fishing machines" identified by the community as intangible cultural heritage, meaning their ability to cope with and adapt to changes while maintaining their identity and recognisability.
The adopted approach combined quantitative and qualitative data from meteorological analysis, literature review, and field surveys. The investigation of specific weather events was conducted considering both large-scale long-term analysis (using the ERA5 dataset) and small-scale short-term analysis (models and ground-based sensors). A participatory workshop with the population was organized by the authors at the Municipality of San Vito Chietino with the support of the Municipality itself, from which a significant part of the results emerged. The latter provided an overview of the relevant phenomena that have occurred in recent decades which, by posing a threat to this expression of cultural heritage due to climate change (sea level rise, coastal erosion, storms, flooding, and salinization) have, however, also presented challenges and opportunities for coastal development, stimulating various resilient responses by local communities.
Keywords: climate change; trabocchi; intangible cultural heritage; coastal areas; resilience; safeguarding adaptive strategies; heritage uses.
References
- Mascitelli A., Prestileo F., Stella E.M., Aruffo E., López Campos L.I., Federico S., Torcasio R.C., Corsi A., Di Carlo P., Dietrich S., Impact of Climate Change on the “Trabocchi Coast” (Italy): The Trabocco Turchino Case Study, Sustainability, 2023, 15, pp. 1-15 , https://doi.org/10.3390/su151410880
- Serafini L., Di Toro N., Not just wood. The fishing machines of the central Adriatic, in Roma, Capitale d’Italia 150 anni dopo. Preesistenze architettoniche. Aree archeologiche - Paesaggio, Bellanca C., Antonini Lanari C., Eds., Artemide, Rome, Italy, 2021; Volume 2, pp. 649-661.
- Forlani M.C., Progettare per l’ambiente costiero. Il recupero della cultura materiale e la valorizzazione delle risorse nella “Costa dei Trabocchi”, Edicom Edizioni, Monfalcone (Gorizia), 2022
- Prestileo F., Mascitelli A., Meli G., Petracca M., Giorgi C., Melfi D., Puca S., Dietrich , Resilience of Cultural Heritage in Extreme Weather Conditions: The Case of the UNESCO Villa Romana del Casale Archaeological Site’s Response to the Apollo Medicane in October 2021. In Proceedings of the Computational Science and Its Applications—ICCSA 2022 Workshops, Malaga, Spain, 4–7 July 2022; Gervasi, O., Murgante, B., Misra, S., Rocha, A.M.A.C., Garau, ., Eds.; Springer International Publishing:Cham, Switzerland, 2022; pp. 511–526.
How to cite: Prestileo, F., Mascitelli, A., Stella, E. M., López Campos, L. I., Federico, S., Torcasio, R. C., Aruffo, E., Chiacchiaretta, P., Di Carlo, P., and Dietrich, S.: A model of vernacular architecture resilience to impact of climate change and social challenges in the Mediterranean basin: the case study of the Trabocchi Coast (Abruzzo Region, Italy), 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-13, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-13, 2024.
Plinius18-62 | Posters | PL5
From Augustus to Today: The Tiber River’s Enduring Battle with Nature´s ExtremesIsabel Aguilar Corona, Fernanda Prestileo, Stefano Federico, and Stefano Dietrich
Overflows of the Tiber River have been a serious and recurrent threat to the city's security, economy and cultural heritage since time immemorial, requiring effective mitigation and adaptation measures to minimise their impact.
Since antiquity, classical authors such as Pliny the Elder and Dion Cassius have descriptively chronicled these events and their catastrophic effects, although in most cases associated with a strong ritual and religious character.
Over the centuries, various measures have been implemented to control floods, including infrastructure such as floodwalls and drainage systems. However, historic floods such as those of 54 BC, 414 AD, 1557 and even the most recent one in 2012 left an indelible mark on the city. This study examines the river historical management, starting with Emperor Augustus’ efforts to channel the river to mitgate flooding and protect the expanding city.
Infact ass Rome has expanded and modernised, more sophisticated methods of dealing with flood management have been developed, but contemporary challenges such as climate change and urban growth continue to pose problems and threats that require attention and effective measures to protect the city and its inhabitants, leaving us to ask: is it too late to save Rome from its fate?
The research is aimed to draw parallels between ancient and modern methods of managing the Tiber’s extremes events (floods as in 2012 and drought periods as it was in 2022), highlighting the resilience of Roman infrastructure and the lessons that can be learned for contemporary water management and safeguarding of cultural heritage in the face of climate change.
Keywords: floods; extreme events; classic Roman works; hydraulic engineering; River Tiber; Rome.
References
Bersani P., Ferranti C., Le piene del Tevere a Roma dal 1870 al 2020, L’Acqua, 2023, 2, 57-82.
Gómez, L. y Long, P. (2023), The floods of the Tiber with additional documents on the Tiber flood of 1530, Medieval & Renaissance Texts, New York.
Moreno Herrero, S. (2007), “Los desbordamientos del Tíber a su paso por Roma en época de Augusto”, El agua y las ciudades romanas (Mangas, J. y Martínez, S. Eds.), 65-72.
How to cite: Aguilar Corona, I., Prestileo, F., Federico, S., and Dietrich, S.: From Augustus to Today: The Tiber River’s Enduring Battle with Nature´s Extremes, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-62, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-62, 2024.
Overflows of the Tiber River have been a serious and recurrent threat to the city's security, economy and cultural heritage since time immemorial, requiring effective mitigation and adaptation measures to minimise their impact.
Since antiquity, classical authors such as Pliny the Elder and Dion Cassius have descriptively chronicled these events and their catastrophic effects, although in most cases associated with a strong ritual and religious character.
Over the centuries, various measures have been implemented to control floods, including infrastructure such as floodwalls and drainage systems. However, historic floods such as those of 54 BC, 414 AD, 1557 and even the most recent one in 2012 left an indelible mark on the city. This study examines the river historical management, starting with Emperor Augustus’ efforts to channel the river to mitgate flooding and protect the expanding city.
Infact ass Rome has expanded and modernised, more sophisticated methods of dealing with flood management have been developed, but contemporary challenges such as climate change and urban growth continue to pose problems and threats that require attention and effective measures to protect the city and its inhabitants, leaving us to ask: is it too late to save Rome from its fate?
The research is aimed to draw parallels between ancient and modern methods of managing the Tiber’s extremes events (floods as in 2012 and drought periods as it was in 2022), highlighting the resilience of Roman infrastructure and the lessons that can be learned for contemporary water management and safeguarding of cultural heritage in the face of climate change.
Keywords: floods; extreme events; classic Roman works; hydraulic engineering; River Tiber; Rome.
References
Bersani P., Ferranti C., Le piene del Tevere a Roma dal 1870 al 2020, L’Acqua, 2023, 2, 57-82.
Gómez, L. y Long, P. (2023), The floods of the Tiber with additional documents on the Tiber flood of 1530, Medieval & Renaissance Texts, New York.
Moreno Herrero, S. (2007), “Los desbordamientos del Tíber a su paso por Roma en época de Augusto”, El agua y las ciudades romanas (Mangas, J. y Martínez, S. Eds.), 65-72.
How to cite: Aguilar Corona, I., Prestileo, F., Federico, S., and Dietrich, S.: From Augustus to Today: The Tiber River’s Enduring Battle with Nature´s Extremes, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-62, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-62, 2024.
Plinius18-48 | Orals | PL5
TRIQUETRA project: The Mediterranean sitesAnastasia Anastasiou, Charalabos Ioannidis, Constantine Spyrakos, Styliani Verykokou, Denis Istrati, Apostolos Sarris, Salvatore Martino, Kyriacos Themistocleous, Diofantos Hadjimitsis, Haralambos Feidas, Prodromos Zanis, Konstantinos Tokmakidis, Themistoklis Bilis, Sofia Spyropoulou, Chrysanthi Kounnou, Panagiotis Georgiadis, and Vassiliki (Betty) Charalampopoulou
In a landscape where Climate Change induced threats intensify and entire regions are endangered, the hazards posed to Cultural Heritage sites increase. These include sea level rising, rotation of extreme weather events and environmental degradation, which significantly jeopardize the protection and preservation of these sites.
TRIQUETRA aims to tackle these issues through accomplishing a series of strategic objectives such as developing a comprehensive repository of knowledge about the impacts of Climate Change on Cultural Heritage, while also using cutting-edge technologies for precise and effective risk quantification.
The TRIQUETRA EU research project is focused on developing an evidence-based assessment platform that serves as a Decision Support System for risk assessment. This platform is designed to improve the effectiveness of risk mitigation and site remediation activities. Overall, the strategy followed within the TRIQUETRA project is structured around three key elements: (i) Risk Identification, (ii) Risk Quantification and (iii) Risk Mitigation.
To validate these approaches, TRIQUETRA is implemented in eight different CH sties across Europe, five of which are located in the broad Mediterranean region, such as Choirokoitia in Cyprus, Aegina, Epidaurus and Kalapodi in Greece and Ventotene in Italy.
Key outcomes of the project include a novel risk quantification framework, an enhanced knowledge base platform, a decision support system equipped with tools for assessing risk severity, selecting and optimizing mitigation measures, new protective materials, an innovative flash LiDAR system, water quality analysers and a framework for digitising CH sites.
How to cite: Anastasiou, A., Ioannidis, C., Spyrakos, C., Verykokou, S., Istrati, D., Sarris, A., Martino, S., Themistocleous, K., Hadjimitsis, D., Feidas, H., Zanis, P., Tokmakidis, K., Bilis, T., Spyropoulou, S., Kounnou, C., Georgiadis, P., and Charalampopoulou, V. (.: TRIQUETRA project: The Mediterranean sites , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-48, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-48, 2024.
In a landscape where Climate Change induced threats intensify and entire regions are endangered, the hazards posed to Cultural Heritage sites increase. These include sea level rising, rotation of extreme weather events and environmental degradation, which significantly jeopardize the protection and preservation of these sites.
TRIQUETRA aims to tackle these issues through accomplishing a series of strategic objectives such as developing a comprehensive repository of knowledge about the impacts of Climate Change on Cultural Heritage, while also using cutting-edge technologies for precise and effective risk quantification.
The TRIQUETRA EU research project is focused on developing an evidence-based assessment platform that serves as a Decision Support System for risk assessment. This platform is designed to improve the effectiveness of risk mitigation and site remediation activities. Overall, the strategy followed within the TRIQUETRA project is structured around three key elements: (i) Risk Identification, (ii) Risk Quantification and (iii) Risk Mitigation.
To validate these approaches, TRIQUETRA is implemented in eight different CH sties across Europe, five of which are located in the broad Mediterranean region, such as Choirokoitia in Cyprus, Aegina, Epidaurus and Kalapodi in Greece and Ventotene in Italy.
Key outcomes of the project include a novel risk quantification framework, an enhanced knowledge base platform, a decision support system equipped with tools for assessing risk severity, selecting and optimizing mitigation measures, new protective materials, an innovative flash LiDAR system, water quality analysers and a framework for digitising CH sites.
How to cite: Anastasiou, A., Ioannidis, C., Spyrakos, C., Verykokou, S., Istrati, D., Sarris, A., Martino, S., Themistocleous, K., Hadjimitsis, D., Feidas, H., Zanis, P., Tokmakidis, K., Bilis, T., Spyropoulou, S., Kounnou, C., Georgiadis, P., and Charalampopoulou, V. (.: TRIQUETRA project: The Mediterranean sites , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-48, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-48, 2024.
Plinius18-86 | Orals | PL5
Assessing the risks of climate change for cultural heritageAnastasios Polydoros, Constantinos Cartalis, Thaleia Mavrakou, and Konstantinos Philippopoulos
This paper presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing the vulnerability of cultural heritage sites in Greece to climate change. By proposing a multi-criteria system that evaluates exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, the study aims to safeguard Greece's cultural capital and ensure the sustainability of its tourism industry. Utilizing climate model projections, the research identifies potential risks such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, fires, and sea level rise for selected UNESCO archaeological sites and assesses their vulnerability. The study leads to differentiated adaptation plans for every archaeological site based on the climate projections regarding the impacts of climate change and the specific characteristics of each site.
How to cite: Polydoros, A., Cartalis, C., Mavrakou, T., and Philippopoulos, K.: Assessing the risks of climate change for cultural heritage, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-86, 2024.
This paper presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing the vulnerability of cultural heritage sites in Greece to climate change. By proposing a multi-criteria system that evaluates exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, the study aims to safeguard Greece's cultural capital and ensure the sustainability of its tourism industry. Utilizing climate model projections, the research identifies potential risks such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, fires, and sea level rise for selected UNESCO archaeological sites and assesses their vulnerability. The study leads to differentiated adaptation plans for every archaeological site based on the climate projections regarding the impacts of climate change and the specific characteristics of each site.
How to cite: Polydoros, A., Cartalis, C., Mavrakou, T., and Philippopoulos, K.: Assessing the risks of climate change for cultural heritage, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-86, 2024.
Plinius18-71 | Posters | PL5
The role of Museums for the protection of cultural heritage in the era of climate crisisVictoria Zygourou
Museums constitute a global infrastructure, with more than 55,000 worldwide, reaching many millions of visitors each year, and supporting public awareness, research and knowledge production with their prestige.
In the era of climate crisis, museums cannot remain neutral. On the contrary, they must function as centers of information and awareness, at the same time exploiting their comparative advantages: the trust of their public, the possibility to connect climate change with issues that they deal within their own exhibitions and collections, their relationship with local communities, their ability to present complex concepts in an understandable way, and finally their privileged position as convergence nodes of the performing arts.
The work will highlight the new role of museums in the era of the climate crisis, that is, the beacon of reliable information about a major global problem, through an exhibition on climate change, specially designed to be hosted in museums that are not thematically oriented in climate change and the environment, "an exhibition within an exhibition". In particular, the methodology, conditions, orientation and structure of the exhibition will be presented, including the museological approach and its distinctive elements, namely, how to introduce the elements of time and space as related to climate change. An innovative element for the design of the exhibition is the formulation of a targeted quantitative audience survey, which collected the expectations of the citizens for a exhibition on climate change.
How to cite: Zygourou, V.: The role of Museums for the protection of cultural heritage in the era of climate crisis, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-71, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-71, 2024.
Museums constitute a global infrastructure, with more than 55,000 worldwide, reaching many millions of visitors each year, and supporting public awareness, research and knowledge production with their prestige.
In the era of climate crisis, museums cannot remain neutral. On the contrary, they must function as centers of information and awareness, at the same time exploiting their comparative advantages: the trust of their public, the possibility to connect climate change with issues that they deal within their own exhibitions and collections, their relationship with local communities, their ability to present complex concepts in an understandable way, and finally their privileged position as convergence nodes of the performing arts.
The work will highlight the new role of museums in the era of the climate crisis, that is, the beacon of reliable information about a major global problem, through an exhibition on climate change, specially designed to be hosted in museums that are not thematically oriented in climate change and the environment, "an exhibition within an exhibition". In particular, the methodology, conditions, orientation and structure of the exhibition will be presented, including the museological approach and its distinctive elements, namely, how to introduce the elements of time and space as related to climate change. An innovative element for the design of the exhibition is the formulation of a targeted quantitative audience survey, which collected the expectations of the citizens for a exhibition on climate change.
How to cite: Zygourou, V.: The role of Museums for the protection of cultural heritage in the era of climate crisis, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-71, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-71, 2024.
Plinius18-101 | Orals | PL5
The impact of changing climate on the preservation of Mediterranean cinematographic archivesFrancesca Frasca, Lisa Vergelli, Chiara Bertolin, and Anna Maria Siani
A changing climate significantly impacts the preservation of cultural heritage both outdoors and indoors. In the case of cultural collections preserved indoors, buildings play a key role in buffering the short-term outdoor climate fluctuations, being still heavily influenced by long-term outdoor climate trends. This makes indoor climate control challenging, especially when stable indoor temperature and relative humidity conditions should be kept preserving climate-vulnerable materials (e.g., polymeric-based materials). In the last decades, this approach is becoming increasingly unsustainable due to the extensive use of air conditioning systems, which contribute to the emission of greenhouse gases. This study examines the potential challenges in indoor climate control in the Mediterranean cinematographic archives -preserving cellulose acetate motion picture films- under the intermediate Shared Socio-economic Pathways climate scenario (SSP2-4.5). The analysis employs the "degree-days" index, using temperature thresholds recommended by standards to limit climate-induced degradation in cinematographic collections. The expected increase of the outdoor temperatures will be responsible for a significant increase in the cooling degree days with a different extent throughout Mediterranean countries. This will make more challenging the preservation of cinematographic collections as they are highly vulnerable to temperature greater that 15°C. These findings can support strategies to adapt to predicted warming by fine-tuning indoor climate control to preserve collections while enhancing energy efficiency. This may lead to the construction of new more-efficient cinematographic archives in climate resilient areas and to the development of new standards incorporating future climate projections and adaptation measures.
How to cite: Frasca, F., Vergelli, L., Bertolin, C., and Siani, A. M.: The impact of changing climate on the preservation of Mediterranean cinematographic archives, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-101, 2024.
A changing climate significantly impacts the preservation of cultural heritage both outdoors and indoors. In the case of cultural collections preserved indoors, buildings play a key role in buffering the short-term outdoor climate fluctuations, being still heavily influenced by long-term outdoor climate trends. This makes indoor climate control challenging, especially when stable indoor temperature and relative humidity conditions should be kept preserving climate-vulnerable materials (e.g., polymeric-based materials). In the last decades, this approach is becoming increasingly unsustainable due to the extensive use of air conditioning systems, which contribute to the emission of greenhouse gases. This study examines the potential challenges in indoor climate control in the Mediterranean cinematographic archives -preserving cellulose acetate motion picture films- under the intermediate Shared Socio-economic Pathways climate scenario (SSP2-4.5). The analysis employs the "degree-days" index, using temperature thresholds recommended by standards to limit climate-induced degradation in cinematographic collections. The expected increase of the outdoor temperatures will be responsible for a significant increase in the cooling degree days with a different extent throughout Mediterranean countries. This will make more challenging the preservation of cinematographic collections as they are highly vulnerable to temperature greater that 15°C. These findings can support strategies to adapt to predicted warming by fine-tuning indoor climate control to preserve collections while enhancing energy efficiency. This may lead to the construction of new more-efficient cinematographic archives in climate resilient areas and to the development of new standards incorporating future climate projections and adaptation measures.
How to cite: Frasca, F., Vergelli, L., Bertolin, C., and Siani, A. M.: The impact of changing climate on the preservation of Mediterranean cinematographic archives, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-101, 2024.
Plinius18-93 | Posters | PL5
Patterns of Compound Drought and Heatwave Events in the Mediterranean and Their Atmospheric Circulation Drivers: Implications for Cultural HeritageAthina-Kyriaki Zazani, Constantinos Cartalis, Kostas Philippopoulos, Ilias Agathangelidis, and Anastasios Polydoros
Recent research reveals that extreme climate events arise from the complex interplay of multiple physical drivers across different spatial and temporal scales. Although traditional climate risk and impact assessments consider individual extreme events, it is the synergy of such events that can trigger cascading impacts. Compound climate events are defined as the combination of multiple drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. This work will address the field of extreme climate and weather events through the assessment of the co-occurrence of droughts and heatwave (CDHW) events, focusing on their impact on cultural heritage sites in the Mediterranean.
Large-scale circulation drivers, such as atmospheric blocking, influence the occurrence and persistence of CDHW events. The scope of this study is to evaluate the current state of climate over the Mediterranean in terms of droughts and heatwaves, focusing on their compound impacts on cultural heritage sites, and identifying their large-scale atmospheric circulation drivers. The identification of the CDHW climatology is carried out through the improvement of an index tailored to the Mediterranean region. According to the peak-over-threshold approach, CDHW events occur when two or more contributing climate indicators simultaneously exceed a relative threshold. Multiple indicator combinations are examined, and an optimum compound index is developed that successfully quantifies the interrelations of droughts and heatwaves.
Extensive statistical analysis is carried out to evaluate their frequency, duration, intensity, and trends for a 50-year period (1974-2023). The analysis is based on reanalysis products and follows a data-driven methodology. The role of large-scale atmospheric circulation drivers on the onset, duration, and intensity of CDHW events is examined using the synoptic climatology approach. This analysis provides the hot-spot regions of CDHW high-impact phenomena over the Mediterranean region and their association with large-scale atmospheric circulation, with a particular emphasis on the vulnerabilities of cultural heritage sites.
How to cite: Zazani, A.-K., Cartalis, C., Philippopoulos, K., Agathangelidis, I., and Polydoros, A.: Patterns of Compound Drought and Heatwave Events in the Mediterranean and Their Atmospheric Circulation Drivers: Implications for Cultural Heritage, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-93, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-93, 2024.
Recent research reveals that extreme climate events arise from the complex interplay of multiple physical drivers across different spatial and temporal scales. Although traditional climate risk and impact assessments consider individual extreme events, it is the synergy of such events that can trigger cascading impacts. Compound climate events are defined as the combination of multiple drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. This work will address the field of extreme climate and weather events through the assessment of the co-occurrence of droughts and heatwave (CDHW) events, focusing on their impact on cultural heritage sites in the Mediterranean.
Large-scale circulation drivers, such as atmospheric blocking, influence the occurrence and persistence of CDHW events. The scope of this study is to evaluate the current state of climate over the Mediterranean in terms of droughts and heatwaves, focusing on their compound impacts on cultural heritage sites, and identifying their large-scale atmospheric circulation drivers. The identification of the CDHW climatology is carried out through the improvement of an index tailored to the Mediterranean region. According to the peak-over-threshold approach, CDHW events occur when two or more contributing climate indicators simultaneously exceed a relative threshold. Multiple indicator combinations are examined, and an optimum compound index is developed that successfully quantifies the interrelations of droughts and heatwaves.
Extensive statistical analysis is carried out to evaluate their frequency, duration, intensity, and trends for a 50-year period (1974-2023). The analysis is based on reanalysis products and follows a data-driven methodology. The role of large-scale atmospheric circulation drivers on the onset, duration, and intensity of CDHW events is examined using the synoptic climatology approach. This analysis provides the hot-spot regions of CDHW high-impact phenomena over the Mediterranean region and their association with large-scale atmospheric circulation, with a particular emphasis on the vulnerabilities of cultural heritage sites.
How to cite: Zazani, A.-K., Cartalis, C., Philippopoulos, K., Agathangelidis, I., and Polydoros, A.: Patterns of Compound Drought and Heatwave Events in the Mediterranean and Their Atmospheric Circulation Drivers: Implications for Cultural Heritage, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-93, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-93, 2024.
Plinius18-130 | Orals | PL5
TOPIO project: Safeguarding the landscape heritage from climate change impact through Landscape Character Assessment and Public ParticipationDimitrios Alexakis, George Lampropoulos, Veerle Van Eetvelde, Isabel Lupa Ramos, Maria Jose Prados Velasco, Betty (Vassiliki) Charalampopoulou, Neratzia Tzortzi, Vito Emanuele Cambria, Dimitris Sykas, Christos Georgiadis, Rute Martins, Cristina Mussachio, Anna Papadima, Virginia Cuccaro, and Alexander Spyropoulos
The landscape, as a comprehensive entity encompassing diverse ecosystems, cultural values, aesthetic qualities, and geological features, is integral to the concept of natural heritage. Climate change poses a substantial threat to landscapes. The impacts are multifaceted, affecting not only the ecological integrity of these areas but also their cultural significance and the livelihoods of people who depend on them. Efforts to mitigate climate change and adapt to its effects are crucial to preserving valuable landscapes for future generations.
TOPIO project aims to contribute to addressing these issues by developing a holistic methodology where Citizen Science, Policy Outreach, Artificial Intelligence and Public Participatory GIS approaches, with the aid of Earth Observation, Digital Twins and Geoinformatics, will find common ground in order to involve both scientists and citizens in a “bottom-up” participatory and creative initiative for the implementation of the European Landscape Convention (ELC) in different areas of Europe. In this framework, TOPIO will prepare a landscape guide inspired by the ELC, initially focused on seven study areas across Europe. The identified topics will address urgent issues impacting the evolution of landscapes, focusing, among others, on climate change mitigation and adaptation.
A Landscape Character Assessment (LCA) covering the study areas will also be conducted based on public participation. The aim is to increase citizen awareness of landscape policies and involve society in safeguarding landscape heritage from the impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the LCA can serve as a tool for local and regional authorities to assess and manage climate-related risks.
How to cite: Alexakis, D., Lampropoulos, G., Eetvelde, V. V., Ramos, I. L., Prados Velasco, M. J., Charalampopoulou, B. (., Tzortzi, N., Cambria, V. E., Sykas, D., Georgiadis, C., Martins, R., Mussachio, C., Papadima, A., Cuccaro, V., and Spyropoulos, A.: TOPIO project: Safeguarding the landscape heritage from climate change impact through Landscape Character Assessment and Public Participation, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-130, 2024.
The landscape, as a comprehensive entity encompassing diverse ecosystems, cultural values, aesthetic qualities, and geological features, is integral to the concept of natural heritage. Climate change poses a substantial threat to landscapes. The impacts are multifaceted, affecting not only the ecological integrity of these areas but also their cultural significance and the livelihoods of people who depend on them. Efforts to mitigate climate change and adapt to its effects are crucial to preserving valuable landscapes for future generations.
TOPIO project aims to contribute to addressing these issues by developing a holistic methodology where Citizen Science, Policy Outreach, Artificial Intelligence and Public Participatory GIS approaches, with the aid of Earth Observation, Digital Twins and Geoinformatics, will find common ground in order to involve both scientists and citizens in a “bottom-up” participatory and creative initiative for the implementation of the European Landscape Convention (ELC) in different areas of Europe. In this framework, TOPIO will prepare a landscape guide inspired by the ELC, initially focused on seven study areas across Europe. The identified topics will address urgent issues impacting the evolution of landscapes, focusing, among others, on climate change mitigation and adaptation.
A Landscape Character Assessment (LCA) covering the study areas will also be conducted based on public participation. The aim is to increase citizen awareness of landscape policies and involve society in safeguarding landscape heritage from the impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the LCA can serve as a tool for local and regional authorities to assess and manage climate-related risks.
How to cite: Alexakis, D., Lampropoulos, G., Eetvelde, V. V., Ramos, I. L., Prados Velasco, M. J., Charalampopoulou, B. (., Tzortzi, N., Cambria, V. E., Sykas, D., Georgiadis, C., Martins, R., Mussachio, C., Papadima, A., Cuccaro, V., and Spyropoulos, A.: TOPIO project: Safeguarding the landscape heritage from climate change impact through Landscape Character Assessment and Public Participation, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-130, 2024.
Plinius18-138 | Orals | PL5
A novel methodology for strengthening resilience of cultural heritage to the impacts of climate change - application for archaeological sites and monuments in GreeceConstantinos Cartalis, Elena Kountouri, Sofia Zoumpaki, Vassiliki Kotroni, Konstantina Benissi, Eythimios Lekkas, Kostas Lagouvardos, Sofia Spyropoulou, Margarita Kokkoni, Anastasios Polydoros, and Theodore Giannaros
Protecting cultural heritage from the impacts of climate-related risks requires the development of adaptive strategies that take note of (a) the climate hazards (forest fires, droughts, floods, heat waves, sea level rise) that are associated to the landscape where an archaeological site/monument is located (b) the strong variation in climate vulnerability by location (c) the socio-economic changes that may impact the communities which support the conservation of cultural heritage and (d) local knowledge and traditions. The paper presents a novel methodology based on the interplay of "exposure-sensitivity-vulnerability-risk" for strengtening resilience of cultural heritage to the impacts of climate change; the methodology is based on such parameters as exposure, sensitivity and vulnerability, it considers landscape characteristics, takes note of climate estimates for the future climate period and finally delivers site dependent adaptation plans to climate change. The methodology is rolled out in the framework of the policy of the Hellenic Ministry of Culture for the protection of archaeological sites from the impacts of climate change. The methodology as well as results for selected archaeological sites will be presented along with a discussion on the environmental, social and governance criteria for the implementation of the adaptation plans.
How to cite: Cartalis, C., Kountouri, E., Zoumpaki, S., Kotroni, V., Benissi, K., Lekkas, E., Lagouvardos, K., Spyropoulou, S., Kokkoni, M., Polydoros, A., and Giannaros, T.: A novel methodology for strengthening resilience of cultural heritage to the impacts of climate change - application for archaeological sites and monuments in Greece, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-138, 2024.
Protecting cultural heritage from the impacts of climate-related risks requires the development of adaptive strategies that take note of (a) the climate hazards (forest fires, droughts, floods, heat waves, sea level rise) that are associated to the landscape where an archaeological site/monument is located (b) the strong variation in climate vulnerability by location (c) the socio-economic changes that may impact the communities which support the conservation of cultural heritage and (d) local knowledge and traditions. The paper presents a novel methodology based on the interplay of "exposure-sensitivity-vulnerability-risk" for strengtening resilience of cultural heritage to the impacts of climate change; the methodology is based on such parameters as exposure, sensitivity and vulnerability, it considers landscape characteristics, takes note of climate estimates for the future climate period and finally delivers site dependent adaptation plans to climate change. The methodology is rolled out in the framework of the policy of the Hellenic Ministry of Culture for the protection of archaeological sites from the impacts of climate change. The methodology as well as results for selected archaeological sites will be presented along with a discussion on the environmental, social and governance criteria for the implementation of the adaptation plans.
How to cite: Cartalis, C., Kountouri, E., Zoumpaki, S., Kotroni, V., Benissi, K., Lekkas, E., Lagouvardos, K., Spyropoulou, S., Kokkoni, M., Polydoros, A., and Giannaros, T.: A novel methodology for strengthening resilience of cultural heritage to the impacts of climate change - application for archaeological sites and monuments in Greece, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-138, 2024.
Plinius18-103 | Orals | PL5
Risk assessment of Italian cultural and natural heritage in a climate change environmentAlessandro Sardella, Linda Canesi, Claudia Roberta Calidonna, Elsa Cattani, Dario Camuffo, Carlo Cacace, Paolo Iannelli, and Alessandra Bonazza
The present research illustrates the methodological approach and the results achieved so far concerning the risk assessment of cultural heritage towards climate change impact in the framework of the “Extraordinary National plan for monitoring and conservation of Italian cultural heritage”. This initiative, coordinated by the Italian Ministry of Culture - General Directorate for the Safety of Cultural Heritage, aims at the safeguarding of cultural and natural heritage from diverse natural and human-made hazard, including climate-induced extreme events (heavy rain, floods and drought).
The methodological approach implemented foresees:
- Identification of climate and pollution parameters with priority in causing impacts on cultural heritage.
- Selection and application of appropriate damage functions and climate extreme indices.
- Development of projections of hazard at territorial level by using regional and climate models from the EURO-CORDEX experiment.
- Hazard analysis by exploiting the Copernicus services CAMS (Atmosphere Monitoring) and C3S (Climate Change) and purposely elaborated data form air quality monitoring stations.
- Application of the methodology for vulnerability assessment of cultural and natural heritage set up in the framework of the Interreg Central EU Project STRENCH.
- Testing and validation of the methods and approaches at selected Italian case studies, among them the historic center of Florence and the terraced landscape in the Archipelago of Aeolian Islands.
- Integration of the obtained data and results in the existing territorial information systems and repositories of the Ministry (e.g. Carta del Rischio and SecurArt projects).
The final aim of the research is to support the Public Authorities at National and local level in the management of cultural heritage at risk, by also supporting them in putting forward recommendations for the integration of measures dedicated of the protection of cultural heritage in the national plans of disaster risk reduction and climate change mitigation.
How to cite: Sardella, A., Canesi, L., Calidonna, C. R., Cattani, E., Camuffo, D., Cacace, C., Iannelli, P., and Bonazza, A.: Risk assessment of Italian cultural and natural heritage in a climate change environment, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-103, 2024.
The present research illustrates the methodological approach and the results achieved so far concerning the risk assessment of cultural heritage towards climate change impact in the framework of the “Extraordinary National plan for monitoring and conservation of Italian cultural heritage”. This initiative, coordinated by the Italian Ministry of Culture - General Directorate for the Safety of Cultural Heritage, aims at the safeguarding of cultural and natural heritage from diverse natural and human-made hazard, including climate-induced extreme events (heavy rain, floods and drought).
The methodological approach implemented foresees:
- Identification of climate and pollution parameters with priority in causing impacts on cultural heritage.
- Selection and application of appropriate damage functions and climate extreme indices.
- Development of projections of hazard at territorial level by using regional and climate models from the EURO-CORDEX experiment.
- Hazard analysis by exploiting the Copernicus services CAMS (Atmosphere Monitoring) and C3S (Climate Change) and purposely elaborated data form air quality monitoring stations.
- Application of the methodology for vulnerability assessment of cultural and natural heritage set up in the framework of the Interreg Central EU Project STRENCH.
- Testing and validation of the methods and approaches at selected Italian case studies, among them the historic center of Florence and the terraced landscape in the Archipelago of Aeolian Islands.
- Integration of the obtained data and results in the existing territorial information systems and repositories of the Ministry (e.g. Carta del Rischio and SecurArt projects).
The final aim of the research is to support the Public Authorities at National and local level in the management of cultural heritage at risk, by also supporting them in putting forward recommendations for the integration of measures dedicated of the protection of cultural heritage in the national plans of disaster risk reduction and climate change mitigation.
How to cite: Sardella, A., Canesi, L., Calidonna, C. R., Cattani, E., Camuffo, D., Cacace, C., Iannelli, P., and Bonazza, A.: Risk assessment of Italian cultural and natural heritage in a climate change environment, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-103, 2024.
PL6 – Impacts of climate change and extremes on ecosystems and agriculture
Plinius18-10 | Orals | PL6
Climate-change adaptation plan in the Mediterranean regionNikolaos Nikolaidis, Maria Lilli, Shlomo Wald, David Lehrer, Abeer Albalawneh, Anan Jayyousi, Iddo Kan, Suleiman Halasah, Shiri Zemah-Shamir, and Shaddad Attili
The Mediterranean region is considered a “Hot Spot” susceptible to the threat of climate change. Many regions are prone to desertification, reduced water and change of rainfall pattern, loss of fertile soil, and degradation of the ecological services provided. Using the Jordan Valley as a test case, the overall objective of the new EcoFuture project, funded by the PRIMA programme (under GA number 2243), is to develop a climate-change adaptation plan oriented towards improving the socio-economic welfare for people in the Mediterranean region based on Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus methodologies. The project builds on the research and innovation capacities of partners and local stakeholders in order to: 1) Propose a climate change adaptation plan for the Jordan Valley region, based on existing and emerging technologies, taking into account the social and economic priorities of the three involved jurisdictions (Jordan, Israel and Palestine); 2) Use techno-economic models to optimise the sustainable efficiency (economic, society and environment) performance of the Plan; 3) Use socio-economic models to assess and recommend policies in the WEFE context to improve the welfare of people in the region; 4) Perform tests in three demonstration sites in the Jordan Valley, one in each country, in order to validate the inputs to the various models; 5) Propose methodologies to extend the applicability of the results of the Jordan Valley to other regions and to other Mediterranean countries; 6) Build synergies across sectors to investigate interlinkages across the nexus; 7) Implement capacity building and training programs in response to project findings.
EcoFuture is designed to accomplish the objectives of the project in 3 phases:
- Data Collection Phase – The phase involves the collection of current and future WEFE resources data, Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) alternatives, Socio-ecological data and Governance data.
- Knowledge Creation Phase – The data collected in the first phase are analyzed using various methodologies, tools and models. This will be achieved through the development of Casual-Loop Diagrams (CLD), WEFE alternatives, Multi-criteria analysis of the selection of the optimal WEFE alternative, Hydrologic analysis of the area, Water allocation analysis, Energy Analysis, Ecosystem and Climate change assessment.
- Synthesis and Proposals Phase – This phase involved a techno-economical analysis and a foresight analysis that will be the basis for the development of a regional Strategic Plan that will assure Water security, Energy security and Food security while accounting for the impacts of climate change.
At the same time, Living Labs will take place in each territory with stakeholders that are relevant to the WEFE Nexus in order to co-design the pilot demonstration that will take place in each territory. These pilots will be the basis for capacity building and training programs for the local stakeholders.
How to cite: Nikolaidis, N., Lilli, M., Wald, S., Lehrer, D., Albalawneh, A., Jayyousi, A., Kan, I., Halasah, S., Zemah-Shamir, S., and Attili, S.: Climate-change adaptation plan in the Mediterranean region , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-10, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-10, 2024.
The Mediterranean region is considered a “Hot Spot” susceptible to the threat of climate change. Many regions are prone to desertification, reduced water and change of rainfall pattern, loss of fertile soil, and degradation of the ecological services provided. Using the Jordan Valley as a test case, the overall objective of the new EcoFuture project, funded by the PRIMA programme (under GA number 2243), is to develop a climate-change adaptation plan oriented towards improving the socio-economic welfare for people in the Mediterranean region based on Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus methodologies. The project builds on the research and innovation capacities of partners and local stakeholders in order to: 1) Propose a climate change adaptation plan for the Jordan Valley region, based on existing and emerging technologies, taking into account the social and economic priorities of the three involved jurisdictions (Jordan, Israel and Palestine); 2) Use techno-economic models to optimise the sustainable efficiency (economic, society and environment) performance of the Plan; 3) Use socio-economic models to assess and recommend policies in the WEFE context to improve the welfare of people in the region; 4) Perform tests in three demonstration sites in the Jordan Valley, one in each country, in order to validate the inputs to the various models; 5) Propose methodologies to extend the applicability of the results of the Jordan Valley to other regions and to other Mediterranean countries; 6) Build synergies across sectors to investigate interlinkages across the nexus; 7) Implement capacity building and training programs in response to project findings.
EcoFuture is designed to accomplish the objectives of the project in 3 phases:
- Data Collection Phase – The phase involves the collection of current and future WEFE resources data, Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) alternatives, Socio-ecological data and Governance data.
- Knowledge Creation Phase – The data collected in the first phase are analyzed using various methodologies, tools and models. This will be achieved through the development of Casual-Loop Diagrams (CLD), WEFE alternatives, Multi-criteria analysis of the selection of the optimal WEFE alternative, Hydrologic analysis of the area, Water allocation analysis, Energy Analysis, Ecosystem and Climate change assessment.
- Synthesis and Proposals Phase – This phase involved a techno-economical analysis and a foresight analysis that will be the basis for the development of a regional Strategic Plan that will assure Water security, Energy security and Food security while accounting for the impacts of climate change.
At the same time, Living Labs will take place in each territory with stakeholders that are relevant to the WEFE Nexus in order to co-design the pilot demonstration that will take place in each territory. These pilots will be the basis for capacity building and training programs for the local stakeholders.
How to cite: Nikolaidis, N., Lilli, M., Wald, S., Lehrer, D., Albalawneh, A., Jayyousi, A., Kan, I., Halasah, S., Zemah-Shamir, S., and Attili, S.: Climate-change adaptation plan in the Mediterranean region , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-10, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-10, 2024.
Plinius18-50 | Posters | PL6
Sub-Selection of CMIP6 Models tailored for Climate Impact Assessments in GreeceAthanasios Tsilimigkras, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Mihalis Lazaridis, and Aristeidis Koutroulis
Climate change impact assessments often require a manageable subset of climate models that accurately reflect regional specificities. This study harnesses the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to define a subset of models that represent the unique climate patterns of Greece. Our primary goal is to identify models that not only demonstrate the best performance over the recent past but also possess the capacity to reflect future climate spreads of the CMIP6 ensemble.
In our assessment we evaluate the full array of 40 CMIP6 models available in the KNMI Climate Explorer using a suite of performance metrics. The evaluation spans the accuracy of historical simulations against the CHELSA observational datasets (Karger et al., 2021). Model capacity for future climate projections is informed by recent advancements in model performance assessments specifically for Europe (Palmer et al., 2023), ensuring that selected models are robust across different climatic scenarios. We further consider model dependence based on recent concepts (Merrifield et al., 2023).
In the same context, we specifically focus on the representativeness of the selected driving models for the ongoing EURO-CORDEX CMIP6 downscaling initiative, which serves as the primary source of information for climate change impact assessment studies in Greece.
We conclude with recommendations of refined subsets of CMIP6 models meeting performance and representativeness criteria for climate model output users. This methodology not only aids in delineating between model performances but also facilitates a more nuanced understanding of their projection capabilities in the rapidly evolving climate modeling landscape.
Acknowledgments
The present work was performed within the project “Support the upgrading of the operation of the National Network on Climate Change (CLIMPACT)” of the General Secretariat of Research and Technology under Grant “2023ΝΑ11900001”.
References
Karger, D.N., Lange, S., Hari, C., Reyer, C. P. O., Zimmermann, N.E. (2021): CHELSA-W5E5 v1.0: W5E5 v1.0 downscaled with CHELSA v2.0. ISIMIP Repository. https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.836809
Merrifield, A., Brunner, L., Lorenz, R., Humphrey, V., & Knutti, R. (2023). Climate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for regional applications. Geoscientific Model Development. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4715-2023.
Palmer, T.E. et al. (2023) ‘Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe’, Earth System Dynamics, 14(2), pp. 457–483. doi:10.5194/esd-14-457-2023.
How to cite: Tsilimigkras, A., Voulgarakis, A., Lazaridis, M., and Koutroulis, A.: Sub-Selection of CMIP6 Models tailored for Climate Impact Assessments in Greece, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-50, 2024.
Climate change impact assessments often require a manageable subset of climate models that accurately reflect regional specificities. This study harnesses the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to define a subset of models that represent the unique climate patterns of Greece. Our primary goal is to identify models that not only demonstrate the best performance over the recent past but also possess the capacity to reflect future climate spreads of the CMIP6 ensemble.
In our assessment we evaluate the full array of 40 CMIP6 models available in the KNMI Climate Explorer using a suite of performance metrics. The evaluation spans the accuracy of historical simulations against the CHELSA observational datasets (Karger et al., 2021). Model capacity for future climate projections is informed by recent advancements in model performance assessments specifically for Europe (Palmer et al., 2023), ensuring that selected models are robust across different climatic scenarios. We further consider model dependence based on recent concepts (Merrifield et al., 2023).
In the same context, we specifically focus on the representativeness of the selected driving models for the ongoing EURO-CORDEX CMIP6 downscaling initiative, which serves as the primary source of information for climate change impact assessment studies in Greece.
We conclude with recommendations of refined subsets of CMIP6 models meeting performance and representativeness criteria for climate model output users. This methodology not only aids in delineating between model performances but also facilitates a more nuanced understanding of their projection capabilities in the rapidly evolving climate modeling landscape.
Acknowledgments
The present work was performed within the project “Support the upgrading of the operation of the National Network on Climate Change (CLIMPACT)” of the General Secretariat of Research and Technology under Grant “2023ΝΑ11900001”.
References
Karger, D.N., Lange, S., Hari, C., Reyer, C. P. O., Zimmermann, N.E. (2021): CHELSA-W5E5 v1.0: W5E5 v1.0 downscaled with CHELSA v2.0. ISIMIP Repository. https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.836809
Merrifield, A., Brunner, L., Lorenz, R., Humphrey, V., & Knutti, R. (2023). Climate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for regional applications. Geoscientific Model Development. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4715-2023.
Palmer, T.E. et al. (2023) ‘Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe’, Earth System Dynamics, 14(2), pp. 457–483. doi:10.5194/esd-14-457-2023.
How to cite: Tsilimigkras, A., Voulgarakis, A., Lazaridis, M., and Koutroulis, A.: Sub-Selection of CMIP6 Models tailored for Climate Impact Assessments in Greece, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-50, 2024.
Plinius18-30 | Orals | PL6
Enhancing weather forecast accuracy for agricultural operations: The MAGDA Project approach.Martina Lagasio, Massimo Milelli, Elena Oberto, Francesco Uboldi, Julien Orensanz, Matthias Piot, Sorin Burcea, Zenaida Chitu, Lisa Verschuren, Amelia Fernández Rodriguez, Aso Validi, Damir Haskovic, Andrea Gatti, Alessandro Fumagalli, and Eugenio Realini
The agricultural sector heavily relies on weather forecasts for informed decision-making. However, existing forecasting methods often lack localized precision, leading to significant uncertainties in predicting extreme weather events crucial for agricultural planning and management. The MAGDA H2020 project aims to address these challenges by developing a modular system deployed to farms, integrating observations from European space-based and ground-based assets to enhance tailored weather forecasts. This project represents a significant advancement by synergizing spaceborne, airborne, and ground-based measurement technologies, including GNSS and meteodrones observations, with meteorological models to benefit agriculture and water management operations. The project targets improvements in weather forecast accuracy, particularly concerning severe weather events like heavy rain, hail, windstorms. Inaccurate predictions of these events can lead to substantial crop damage, over-irrigation, or water shortages. Key challenges in Numerical Weather Models (NWM) stem from uncertainties in initial atmospheric conditions at small scales, necessitating enhanced observational data for improved model performance. Recent advancements in forecasting heavy rainfall events through data assimilation techniques show promising results. Studies have demonstrated the positive impact of integrating reflectivity data and in situ observations into meteorological models for predicting severe weather phenomena in various regions. Additionally, experiments incorporating Sentinel-derived and GNSS-derived products into high-resolution NWM have shown positive outcomes, particularly in predicting convective processes. The MAGDA project employs a cloud resolving modeling approach with a grid spacing of 2-3 km, coupled with rapid update cycles every 1-3 hours, to address uncertainties in weather prediction. The assimilation process integrates GNSS data to monitor integrated water vapor content, weather radar reflectivity to reconstruct the 3D cloud field, in situ weather stations for capturing near-surface atmospheric conditions, and meteodrones observations to collect information about the vertical profiles. By leveraging a combination of advanced technologies and data assimilation techniques, the project aims to enhance the accuracy and usefulness of weather forecasts tailored for agriculture and water management applications. The weather forecasts will be used as an input for the irrigation advisory, next to being used for generating warnings for extreme weather events. The warnings and irrigation advisories will ultimately be channeled through a Farm Management System to ensure the capability to effectively reach farmers and agricultural operators.
How to cite: Lagasio, M., Milelli, M., Oberto, E., Uboldi, F., Orensanz, J., Piot, M., Burcea, S., Chitu, Z., Verschuren, L., Fernández Rodriguez, A., Validi, A., Haskovic, D., Gatti, A., Fumagalli, A., and Realini, E.: Enhancing weather forecast accuracy for agricultural operations: The MAGDA Project approach., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-30, 2024.
The agricultural sector heavily relies on weather forecasts for informed decision-making. However, existing forecasting methods often lack localized precision, leading to significant uncertainties in predicting extreme weather events crucial for agricultural planning and management. The MAGDA H2020 project aims to address these challenges by developing a modular system deployed to farms, integrating observations from European space-based and ground-based assets to enhance tailored weather forecasts. This project represents a significant advancement by synergizing spaceborne, airborne, and ground-based measurement technologies, including GNSS and meteodrones observations, with meteorological models to benefit agriculture and water management operations. The project targets improvements in weather forecast accuracy, particularly concerning severe weather events like heavy rain, hail, windstorms. Inaccurate predictions of these events can lead to substantial crop damage, over-irrigation, or water shortages. Key challenges in Numerical Weather Models (NWM) stem from uncertainties in initial atmospheric conditions at small scales, necessitating enhanced observational data for improved model performance. Recent advancements in forecasting heavy rainfall events through data assimilation techniques show promising results. Studies have demonstrated the positive impact of integrating reflectivity data and in situ observations into meteorological models for predicting severe weather phenomena in various regions. Additionally, experiments incorporating Sentinel-derived and GNSS-derived products into high-resolution NWM have shown positive outcomes, particularly in predicting convective processes. The MAGDA project employs a cloud resolving modeling approach with a grid spacing of 2-3 km, coupled with rapid update cycles every 1-3 hours, to address uncertainties in weather prediction. The assimilation process integrates GNSS data to monitor integrated water vapor content, weather radar reflectivity to reconstruct the 3D cloud field, in situ weather stations for capturing near-surface atmospheric conditions, and meteodrones observations to collect information about the vertical profiles. By leveraging a combination of advanced technologies and data assimilation techniques, the project aims to enhance the accuracy and usefulness of weather forecasts tailored for agriculture and water management applications. The weather forecasts will be used as an input for the irrigation advisory, next to being used for generating warnings for extreme weather events. The warnings and irrigation advisories will ultimately be channeled through a Farm Management System to ensure the capability to effectively reach farmers and agricultural operators.
How to cite: Lagasio, M., Milelli, M., Oberto, E., Uboldi, F., Orensanz, J., Piot, M., Burcea, S., Chitu, Z., Verschuren, L., Fernández Rodriguez, A., Validi, A., Haskovic, D., Gatti, A., Fumagalli, A., and Realini, E.: Enhancing weather forecast accuracy for agricultural operations: The MAGDA Project approach., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-30, 2024.
Plinius18-81 | Posters | PL6
Use of the return period methodology for the prediction of weather events with adverse impacts - case studies for the agricultural and hydrological sectorsMyrto Gratsea, Gianna Kitsara, Paraskevi Machaira, Efthimia Kostopoulou, and Christos Giannakopoulos
The frequency and intensity of extreme events are expected to increase due to climate change, leading to significant impacts on several sectors of human society. The return period method is a valuable tool for quantifying the likelihood of weather events with adverse impacts, and can be used by policymakers for long-term planning and decision making. In this work, two indicative case studies are presented, where the return period methodology and the related occurrence probabilities are used to predict the change in the frequency of occurrence of severe events related to precipitation, in the near and distant future. The first case study refers to the agricultural sector and presents the occurrence probabilities of dry winters in the near (2031-2060) and distant (2071-2100) future, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, using an ensemble mean of five bias corrected RCMs in two characteristic areas of olive cultivation, Spain (Andalusia) and Greece (Peloponnese). Reductions in winter precipitation are related to significant decreases in olive yields. Our analysis revealed increased probability in the occurrence of drier winters in the future, which may lead to yield shortfalls in both areas of the study. The second case study focuses on extreme precipitation that may affect the hydrological sector. Changes in the return periods of extreme rainfall events are calculated until 2100 under three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5) using an ensemble of three bias corrected RCMs in an area close to Inachos river banks, Western Greece. Extreme precipitation events in this area are related to severe river floods. The analysis showed that a flood with a 50-year return period tends to decrease significantly to 20-25 years, depending on the emission scenario. The return period results provided the necessary information for the calculation of the ‘rainfall IDF curves’, contributing to the flood hazard assessment study that has been carried out for the specific area .
How to cite: Gratsea, M., Kitsara, G., Machaira, P., Kostopoulou, E., and Giannakopoulos, C.: Use of the return period methodology for the prediction of weather events with adverse impacts - case studies for the agricultural and hydrological sectors, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-81, 2024.
The frequency and intensity of extreme events are expected to increase due to climate change, leading to significant impacts on several sectors of human society. The return period method is a valuable tool for quantifying the likelihood of weather events with adverse impacts, and can be used by policymakers for long-term planning and decision making. In this work, two indicative case studies are presented, where the return period methodology and the related occurrence probabilities are used to predict the change in the frequency of occurrence of severe events related to precipitation, in the near and distant future. The first case study refers to the agricultural sector and presents the occurrence probabilities of dry winters in the near (2031-2060) and distant (2071-2100) future, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, using an ensemble mean of five bias corrected RCMs in two characteristic areas of olive cultivation, Spain (Andalusia) and Greece (Peloponnese). Reductions in winter precipitation are related to significant decreases in olive yields. Our analysis revealed increased probability in the occurrence of drier winters in the future, which may lead to yield shortfalls in both areas of the study. The second case study focuses on extreme precipitation that may affect the hydrological sector. Changes in the return periods of extreme rainfall events are calculated until 2100 under three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5) using an ensemble of three bias corrected RCMs in an area close to Inachos river banks, Western Greece. Extreme precipitation events in this area are related to severe river floods. The analysis showed that a flood with a 50-year return period tends to decrease significantly to 20-25 years, depending on the emission scenario. The return period results provided the necessary information for the calculation of the ‘rainfall IDF curves’, contributing to the flood hazard assessment study that has been carried out for the specific area .
How to cite: Gratsea, M., Kitsara, G., Machaira, P., Kostopoulou, E., and Giannakopoulos, C.: Use of the return period methodology for the prediction of weather events with adverse impacts - case studies for the agricultural and hydrological sectors, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-81, 2024.
Plinius18-33 | Orals | PL6
Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought Events in The Euphrates-Tigris Basin during 1975–2022Hiba Mohammad, Marco Peli, and Stefano Barontini
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2023 has projected an increase in temperatures across the Mediterranean basin in the coming years, alongside a persistent challenge of water scarcity. This forecast suggests a heightened probability of intensified and more frequent extreme climatic events, particularly droughts. Meteorological drought plays a pivotal role in influencing different forms of drought, highlighting the importance of understanding its spatiotemporal patterns at the basin level. Such an understanding holds significant implications for ensuring ecological sustainability and water resource management security. The present work aims to assess the spatial variability and the trends of the annual rainfall and meteorological drought in the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin (TEB) utilising measured and remote sensing data, which spans from January 1975 to December 2022 (a 47-year period). Drought assessment took place based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for a 12-month timescale. We employed the 12-month SPI as the foundation for detecting drought occurrences. This timeframe offers a compromise between short- and long-term drought events, thus accurately capturing the influence of climate change on vital water resources like river flow. The findings offer valuable insights into the attributes and underlying mechanisms of meteorological droughts across the basin.
How to cite: Mohammad, H., Peli, M., and Barontini, S.: Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought Events in The Euphrates-Tigris Basin during 1975–2022, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-33, 2024.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2023 has projected an increase in temperatures across the Mediterranean basin in the coming years, alongside a persistent challenge of water scarcity. This forecast suggests a heightened probability of intensified and more frequent extreme climatic events, particularly droughts. Meteorological drought plays a pivotal role in influencing different forms of drought, highlighting the importance of understanding its spatiotemporal patterns at the basin level. Such an understanding holds significant implications for ensuring ecological sustainability and water resource management security. The present work aims to assess the spatial variability and the trends of the annual rainfall and meteorological drought in the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin (TEB) utilising measured and remote sensing data, which spans from January 1975 to December 2022 (a 47-year period). Drought assessment took place based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for a 12-month timescale. We employed the 12-month SPI as the foundation for detecting drought occurrences. This timeframe offers a compromise between short- and long-term drought events, thus accurately capturing the influence of climate change on vital water resources like river flow. The findings offer valuable insights into the attributes and underlying mechanisms of meteorological droughts across the basin.
How to cite: Mohammad, H., Peli, M., and Barontini, S.: Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought Events in The Euphrates-Tigris Basin during 1975–2022, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-33, 2024.
Plinius18-46 | Orals | PL6
Examining the contribution of climate change on global soil moisture drought characteristicsAristeidis Koutroulis, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Peter Burek, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Wei Qi, Yadu Pokhrel, Yusuke Satoh, Ioannis Tsanis, Lina Stein, and Wim Thiery
Drought is commonly perceived as a natural hazard that evolves gradually. However, the recent increase in both the onset rate and severity of these events has drawn significant attention [1]. Both climate change and human activities contribute to the alteration of drought characteristics, affecting their development speed and intensity. For instance, climate change may indirectly influence droughts through alterations in the amount and distribution of precipitation and evapotranspiration, whereas human activities like land management can directly impact soil water content. This study employs the ISIMIP Global Water models [2, 3], driven by the hypothetical stationary ISIMIP3a climate dataset without climate change, and transient land use changes based on empirical observations [4]. We utilize soil moisture as an indicator of water deficit and a method to calculate the hydrological drought propagation speed to delineate drought characteristics. We contrast these results with those from historical simulations that include climate-related forcings based on empirical data to assess the historical long-term changes attributed to climate change. Our findings indicate that climate change significantly affects the development speed and intensity of droughts. Regions such as the rainforests of South America, Europe, and Southern Australia are identified as hotspots of more aggressive droughts, whereas areas like the East African mountains might experience milder droughts due to climate change. These variations could critically affect agricultural productivity, ecosystem health, and water availability for human consumption. The potential future acceleration of droughts underscores the importance of enhancing risk management and challenges existing drought hazard prediction research and practice.
1. Tramblay, Y., Koutroulis, A., Samaniego, L., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Volaire, F., Boone, A., ... & Polcher, J. (2020). Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios. Earth-Science Reviews, 210, 103348. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348
2. Telteu, C. E., Müller Schmied, H., Thiery, W., Leng, G., Burek, P., Liu, X., ... & Herz, F. (2021). Understanding each other's models: A standard representation of global water models to support improvement, intercomparison, and communication. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 2021, 1-56. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021
3. Müller Schmied, H., Gosling, S. N., Garnsworthy, M., Müller, L., Telteu, C.-E., … & Yokohata, T. (2024). Graphical representation of global water models, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1303, 2024
4. Frieler, K., Volkholz, J., Lange, S., Schewe, J., Mengel, M., Rivas López, M. D. R., ... & Bechtold, M. (2023). Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). EGUsphere, 2023, 1-83. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024
How to cite: Koutroulis, A., Grillakis, M., Gosling, S., Schmied, H. M., Burek, P., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Qi, W., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Tsanis, I., Stein, L., and Thiery, W.: Examining the contribution of climate change on global soil moisture drought characteristics, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-46, 2024.
Drought is commonly perceived as a natural hazard that evolves gradually. However, the recent increase in both the onset rate and severity of these events has drawn significant attention [1]. Both climate change and human activities contribute to the alteration of drought characteristics, affecting their development speed and intensity. For instance, climate change may indirectly influence droughts through alterations in the amount and distribution of precipitation and evapotranspiration, whereas human activities like land management can directly impact soil water content. This study employs the ISIMIP Global Water models [2, 3], driven by the hypothetical stationary ISIMIP3a climate dataset without climate change, and transient land use changes based on empirical observations [4]. We utilize soil moisture as an indicator of water deficit and a method to calculate the hydrological drought propagation speed to delineate drought characteristics. We contrast these results with those from historical simulations that include climate-related forcings based on empirical data to assess the historical long-term changes attributed to climate change. Our findings indicate that climate change significantly affects the development speed and intensity of droughts. Regions such as the rainforests of South America, Europe, and Southern Australia are identified as hotspots of more aggressive droughts, whereas areas like the East African mountains might experience milder droughts due to climate change. These variations could critically affect agricultural productivity, ecosystem health, and water availability for human consumption. The potential future acceleration of droughts underscores the importance of enhancing risk management and challenges existing drought hazard prediction research and practice.
1. Tramblay, Y., Koutroulis, A., Samaniego, L., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Volaire, F., Boone, A., ... & Polcher, J. (2020). Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios. Earth-Science Reviews, 210, 103348. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348
2. Telteu, C. E., Müller Schmied, H., Thiery, W., Leng, G., Burek, P., Liu, X., ... & Herz, F. (2021). Understanding each other's models: A standard representation of global water models to support improvement, intercomparison, and communication. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 2021, 1-56. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021
3. Müller Schmied, H., Gosling, S. N., Garnsworthy, M., Müller, L., Telteu, C.-E., … & Yokohata, T. (2024). Graphical representation of global water models, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1303, 2024
4. Frieler, K., Volkholz, J., Lange, S., Schewe, J., Mengel, M., Rivas López, M. D. R., ... & Bechtold, M. (2023). Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). EGUsphere, 2023, 1-83. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024
How to cite: Koutroulis, A., Grillakis, M., Gosling, S., Schmied, H. M., Burek, P., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Qi, W., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Tsanis, I., Stein, L., and Thiery, W.: Examining the contribution of climate change on global soil moisture drought characteristics, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-46, 2024.
Plinius18-80 | Orals | PL6
The extreme future of soil moisture over the Mediterranean regionDaniela C.A. Lima, Virgílio A. Bento, Ana Russo, and Pedro M.M. Soares
Soil moisture is a key hydrologic state variable driving the exchange of water and heat energy between the land surface and the atmosphere through evaporation and plant transpiration, regulating surface temperature, humidity and potentially affect precipitation though recycling processes. Soil moisture is a fundamental element of the surface water budget, determining the health or stress on land surface ecosystems and managed systems such as agriculture and agroforestry. The surface water budget, and therefore soil moisture, depends on precipitation, irrigation (when present), soil infiltration, surface runoff, baseflow, and evapotranspiration. Furthermore, soil moisture-based indices are used as indicators of agricultural droughts, and soil moisture drought is one of the preconditioning effects for the development of extreme temperatures, influenced by atmospheric dynamics.
Climate change poses a major threat to all Mediterranean countries due to the combination of significant reductions in precipitation, increases in temperature, and the higher frequency of climate extremes, especially driving water scarcity and related multi-sectoral impacts. Most Mediterranean countries already endure higher frequencies of droughts and deficits in soil moisture and water storage. In this study, future projections of soil moisture are examined using a multi-model EURO-CORDEX regional climate ensemble, in agreement with three future emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). The drivers of future soil moisture dynamics are also analysed along with their effects on relative humidity and evaporation rates.
As expected, the projections show a clear reduction of soil moisture throughout the entire annual cycle, in response to a significant decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature, leading to a substantial rise in potential evapotranspiration. The overall total soil moisture decreases ranges from -5% for the RCP2.6 to -20% (-10%) for the RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), w.r.t. the present climate. Projections reveal that for the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) for the mid-century soil moisture deficits up to 5x (6x) are projected to occur, and for the end-of-century even 7x for the RCP8.5. The annual cycle of soil moisture, both in the present and future climate, is determined by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and deficit is both enhanced and covers a wider monthly window in the future, especially for the RCP8.5.
This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020
(https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020
(https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). This work was performed under the scope of project https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC (DHEFEUS) and supported by national funds through FCT. DL and AR acknowledge FCT I.P./MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) for the FCT https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.03183.CEECIND/CP1715/CT0004 and https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006, respectively.
How to cite: Lima, D. C. A., Bento, V. A., Russo, A., and Soares, P. M. M.: The extreme future of soil moisture over the Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-80, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-80, 2024.
Soil moisture is a key hydrologic state variable driving the exchange of water and heat energy between the land surface and the atmosphere through evaporation and plant transpiration, regulating surface temperature, humidity and potentially affect precipitation though recycling processes. Soil moisture is a fundamental element of the surface water budget, determining the health or stress on land surface ecosystems and managed systems such as agriculture and agroforestry. The surface water budget, and therefore soil moisture, depends on precipitation, irrigation (when present), soil infiltration, surface runoff, baseflow, and evapotranspiration. Furthermore, soil moisture-based indices are used as indicators of agricultural droughts, and soil moisture drought is one of the preconditioning effects for the development of extreme temperatures, influenced by atmospheric dynamics.
Climate change poses a major threat to all Mediterranean countries due to the combination of significant reductions in precipitation, increases in temperature, and the higher frequency of climate extremes, especially driving water scarcity and related multi-sectoral impacts. Most Mediterranean countries already endure higher frequencies of droughts and deficits in soil moisture and water storage. In this study, future projections of soil moisture are examined using a multi-model EURO-CORDEX regional climate ensemble, in agreement with three future emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). The drivers of future soil moisture dynamics are also analysed along with their effects on relative humidity and evaporation rates.
As expected, the projections show a clear reduction of soil moisture throughout the entire annual cycle, in response to a significant decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature, leading to a substantial rise in potential evapotranspiration. The overall total soil moisture decreases ranges from -5% for the RCP2.6 to -20% (-10%) for the RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), w.r.t. the present climate. Projections reveal that for the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) for the mid-century soil moisture deficits up to 5x (6x) are projected to occur, and for the end-of-century even 7x for the RCP8.5. The annual cycle of soil moisture, both in the present and future climate, is determined by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and deficit is both enhanced and covers a wider monthly window in the future, especially for the RCP8.5.
This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020
(https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020
(https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). This work was performed under the scope of project https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC (DHEFEUS) and supported by national funds through FCT. DL and AR acknowledge FCT I.P./MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) for the FCT https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.03183.CEECIND/CP1715/CT0004 and https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006, respectively.
How to cite: Lima, D. C. A., Bento, V. A., Russo, A., and Soares, P. M. M.: The extreme future of soil moisture over the Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-80, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-80, 2024.
Plinius18-133 | Orals | PL6
Evaluation of seasonal weather forecasts for agriculture applications in southeastern EuropeGeorgios Fragkoulidis, Vassiliki Kotroni, and Kostas Lagouvardos
Predicting and preparing for changes in agricultural ecosystems is crucial in an era of rapid global warming. Climate model projections are the only tool we have in assessing the risks for the global food system and they provide some foresight for decision-makers as they develop their adaptation and mitigation strategies. One big challenge in the development of these projections is that we can only evaluate them at the time of their validity, i.e., in many decades from now. However, some knowledge can be gained by assessing the vulnerability of certain crops to anomalous weather and climate conditions at shorter time scales as well. In this work, we analyze past ensemble seasonal forecasts (1 to 6 months lead time) from several weather centres across the world and evaluate their performance based on reanalysis data. The ultimate goal is to assess the impact of uncertainty and biases in seasonal weather forecasts on crop yields, with a focus on the wheat and corn production of southeastern Europe. This will be achieved through the collective efforts of meteorologists, climatologists, and agronomists in the Augures project. Apart from its applicability on an operational seasonal prediction basis, assessing the strengths and limitations of probabilistic crop yield forecasting offers valuable insights for the usability of agricultural projections at longer time horizons.
How to cite: Fragkoulidis, G., Kotroni, V., and Lagouvardos, K.: Evaluation of seasonal weather forecasts for agriculture applications in southeastern Europe, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-133, 2024.
Predicting and preparing for changes in agricultural ecosystems is crucial in an era of rapid global warming. Climate model projections are the only tool we have in assessing the risks for the global food system and they provide some foresight for decision-makers as they develop their adaptation and mitigation strategies. One big challenge in the development of these projections is that we can only evaluate them at the time of their validity, i.e., in many decades from now. However, some knowledge can be gained by assessing the vulnerability of certain crops to anomalous weather and climate conditions at shorter time scales as well. In this work, we analyze past ensemble seasonal forecasts (1 to 6 months lead time) from several weather centres across the world and evaluate their performance based on reanalysis data. The ultimate goal is to assess the impact of uncertainty and biases in seasonal weather forecasts on crop yields, with a focus on the wheat and corn production of southeastern Europe. This will be achieved through the collective efforts of meteorologists, climatologists, and agronomists in the Augures project. Apart from its applicability on an operational seasonal prediction basis, assessing the strengths and limitations of probabilistic crop yield forecasting offers valuable insights for the usability of agricultural projections at longer time horizons.
How to cite: Fragkoulidis, G., Kotroni, V., and Lagouvardos, K.: Evaluation of seasonal weather forecasts for agriculture applications in southeastern Europe, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-133, 2024.
Plinius18-134 | Orals | PL6
Projection of seasonal precipitation conditions and dry days in Southeastern EuropeRita Pongrácz and Péter Szabó
Precipitation and drought conditions play a key role in agriculture, so the regional and local adaptation strategies for the coming decades need information on how these climatic conditions tend to change due to global warming. For this purpose, the results of regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative are analyzed to estimate the possible future trends until the end of the 21st century. In order to take into account the uncertainty arising from the anthropogenic factors (e.g. greenhouse gas emissions, land use changes, population), three different RCP scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are taken into consideration representing immediate mitigation, mitigation from 2040, and business-as-usual future pathways, respectively. The study analyzes the changes in seasonal precipitation, seasonal number of dry days, and seasonal maximum of consecutive dry days by mid-century (2041-2060) and late-century (2081-2100) relative to the reference period (2001-2020) in Southeastern Europe, i.e. a major Mediterranean region between the Adriatic and the Black Sea. The difference between the RCM simulations enables us (i) to assess the uncertainty of the projections, and (ii) to identify robust likely changes in the region. Thus, stakeholders and decision-makers are provided with relevant information for future planning.
Acknowledgements: Research leading to this study has been supported by the European Climate Fund (G-2309-66801), the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Fund (K-129162), and the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014).
How to cite: Pongrácz, R. and Szabó, P.: Projection of seasonal precipitation conditions and dry days in Southeastern Europe, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-134, 2024.
Precipitation and drought conditions play a key role in agriculture, so the regional and local adaptation strategies for the coming decades need information on how these climatic conditions tend to change due to global warming. For this purpose, the results of regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative are analyzed to estimate the possible future trends until the end of the 21st century. In order to take into account the uncertainty arising from the anthropogenic factors (e.g. greenhouse gas emissions, land use changes, population), three different RCP scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are taken into consideration representing immediate mitigation, mitigation from 2040, and business-as-usual future pathways, respectively. The study analyzes the changes in seasonal precipitation, seasonal number of dry days, and seasonal maximum of consecutive dry days by mid-century (2041-2060) and late-century (2081-2100) relative to the reference period (2001-2020) in Southeastern Europe, i.e. a major Mediterranean region between the Adriatic and the Black Sea. The difference between the RCM simulations enables us (i) to assess the uncertainty of the projections, and (ii) to identify robust likely changes in the region. Thus, stakeholders and decision-makers are provided with relevant information for future planning.
Acknowledgements: Research leading to this study has been supported by the European Climate Fund (G-2309-66801), the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Fund (K-129162), and the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014).
How to cite: Pongrácz, R. and Szabó, P.: Projection of seasonal precipitation conditions and dry days in Southeastern Europe, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-134, 2024.
PL7 – Air quality, Heat and Health in the Mediterranean
Plinius18-26 | Posters | PL7
A win-win strategy to enhance the energy transition, improve air quality and reduce associated health threatsVictoria Gallardo, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, and Sonia Jerez
This contribution shows the co-benefits of an optimal deployment of renewable energy infrastructure, particularly wind and solar photovoltaics, on air quality and associated health impact. The term "optimal" here specifically refers to leveraging the spatio-temporal complementarity of both resources in order to minimize the fluctuations of their combined electricity production, and so easing their integration in the energy mix. In a previous work by Jerez et al. (2023), the open-access CLIMAX tool was developed for that purpose, and utilized to delineate optimal capacity density scenarios across five European regions. We now show that, under these optimized scenarios, the European CO2-equivalent emissions could decrease by 1%, accompanied by a significant reduction in pollutant emissions from combustion power plants, potentially amounting to hundreds of kilotons of fine particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide saved. Exposure to these contaminants caused approximately three hundred thousands deaths in Europe in 2021, as reported by EEA (2023). In this sense, building upon the methodology employed by Tarín-Carrasco et al. (2021), our estimates corroborate that implementing the CLIMAX scenarios could substantially avoid human fatalities associated with air pollution. Hence, pursuing carbon neutrality through a judicious energy transition emerges as a win-win strategy. Not only does it contribute to climate change mitigation by curbing greenhouse gas emissions, but it also fosters healthier, more breathable environments, thus preventing premature mortality as it relates to poor air quality.
REFERENCES:
EEA (2023). Harm to human health from air pollution in Europe: burden of disease 2023.
Jerez, S., Barriopedro, D., García-López, A., Lorente-Plazas, R., Somoza, A. M., Turco, M., Carrillo, J., & Trigo, R. M. (2023). An action-oriented approach to make the most of the wind and solar power complementarity. Earth's Future, 11, e2022EF003332.
Tarín-Carrasco, P., Im, U., Geels, C., Palacios-Peña, L., & Jiménez-Guerrero, P. (2021). Contribution of fine particulate matter to present and future premature mortality over Europe: A non-linear response. Environment International, 153, 106517.
How to cite: Gallardo, V., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., and Jerez, S.: A win-win strategy to enhance the energy transition, improve air quality and reduce associated health threats, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-26, 2024.
This contribution shows the co-benefits of an optimal deployment of renewable energy infrastructure, particularly wind and solar photovoltaics, on air quality and associated health impact. The term "optimal" here specifically refers to leveraging the spatio-temporal complementarity of both resources in order to minimize the fluctuations of their combined electricity production, and so easing their integration in the energy mix. In a previous work by Jerez et al. (2023), the open-access CLIMAX tool was developed for that purpose, and utilized to delineate optimal capacity density scenarios across five European regions. We now show that, under these optimized scenarios, the European CO2-equivalent emissions could decrease by 1%, accompanied by a significant reduction in pollutant emissions from combustion power plants, potentially amounting to hundreds of kilotons of fine particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide saved. Exposure to these contaminants caused approximately three hundred thousands deaths in Europe in 2021, as reported by EEA (2023). In this sense, building upon the methodology employed by Tarín-Carrasco et al. (2021), our estimates corroborate that implementing the CLIMAX scenarios could substantially avoid human fatalities associated with air pollution. Hence, pursuing carbon neutrality through a judicious energy transition emerges as a win-win strategy. Not only does it contribute to climate change mitigation by curbing greenhouse gas emissions, but it also fosters healthier, more breathable environments, thus preventing premature mortality as it relates to poor air quality.
REFERENCES:
EEA (2023). Harm to human health from air pollution in Europe: burden of disease 2023.
Jerez, S., Barriopedro, D., García-López, A., Lorente-Plazas, R., Somoza, A. M., Turco, M., Carrillo, J., & Trigo, R. M. (2023). An action-oriented approach to make the most of the wind and solar power complementarity. Earth's Future, 11, e2022EF003332.
Tarín-Carrasco, P., Im, U., Geels, C., Palacios-Peña, L., & Jiménez-Guerrero, P. (2021). Contribution of fine particulate matter to present and future premature mortality over Europe: A non-linear response. Environment International, 153, 106517.
How to cite: Gallardo, V., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., and Jerez, S.: A win-win strategy to enhance the energy transition, improve air quality and reduce associated health threats, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-26, 2024.
Plinius18-51 | Posters | PL7
An Integrated Analysis of Recent Emissions, Pollutant Concentrations, and Health Impacts over Cyprus: The LIFE SIRIUS ApproachCorey McClintock, Jonilda Kushta, Theo Economou, Daphne Parliari, and Jos Lelieveld
Addressing the coupled challenged of climate change and air quality in the Mediterranean requires a unified analysis and response from these regions. LIFE SIRIUS (System for Integrated EnviRonmental Information in Urban areaS) is a three-year project with seven expert partners from three different countries dedicated to improving urban air quality planning and management by empowering responsible public authorities with the latest knowledge and competencies in urban air quality governance. The project will ultimately produce Updated Air Quality Plans for three cities, Thessaloniki, Rome, and Nicosia, as well as operational air quality and health-related warning systems and a unified Environmental Management System. At its core, LIFE SIRIUS aspires to lay out a tangible pathway that accelerates and scales up solutions designed to address air quality challenges. This emphasis extends to the health impacts and compound effects associated with air quality and heat stress issues.
In this work we present an analysis of the main research pillars of LIFE SIRIUS over one of its case studies, Cyprus, namely emissions, pollutant concentrations and health impacts. Assessment of anthropogenic emissions over the county reveals the significant contribution of road transport for several primary species (for NOx, PM2.5, CO, BC), followed by industry and energy production. The results of 10 years of measurements of the main atmospheric pollutants show that the concentrations of most pollutants are below the corresponding limit values established in Cypriot and European legislation. On the contrary, the target value of ozone is exceeded and the limit value of suspended particles with a diameter of less than 10 micrometers (PM10) is exceeded. It is noted that the increasing trend in ozone is accompanied by a decreasing trend in nitrogen oxides, a possible outcome of traffic related measures, while the exceedances of the PM10 limit values are due to both anthropogenic and natural sources. Lastly, we present results from a first study that accounts for the lagged effects of heat stress and air pollution synergy performed explicitly at daily temporal resolution over Cyprus, based on 16 years data of temperature, air pollutant concentrations and daily mortality. Mortality risk due to heat stress is compounded by air pollution with the elderly being the more vulnerable group.
How to cite: McClintock, C., Kushta, J., Economou, T., Parliari, D., and Lelieveld, J.: An Integrated Analysis of Recent Emissions, Pollutant Concentrations, and Health Impacts over Cyprus: The LIFE SIRIUS Approach , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-51, 2024.
Addressing the coupled challenged of climate change and air quality in the Mediterranean requires a unified analysis and response from these regions. LIFE SIRIUS (System for Integrated EnviRonmental Information in Urban areaS) is a three-year project with seven expert partners from three different countries dedicated to improving urban air quality planning and management by empowering responsible public authorities with the latest knowledge and competencies in urban air quality governance. The project will ultimately produce Updated Air Quality Plans for three cities, Thessaloniki, Rome, and Nicosia, as well as operational air quality and health-related warning systems and a unified Environmental Management System. At its core, LIFE SIRIUS aspires to lay out a tangible pathway that accelerates and scales up solutions designed to address air quality challenges. This emphasis extends to the health impacts and compound effects associated with air quality and heat stress issues.
In this work we present an analysis of the main research pillars of LIFE SIRIUS over one of its case studies, Cyprus, namely emissions, pollutant concentrations and health impacts. Assessment of anthropogenic emissions over the county reveals the significant contribution of road transport for several primary species (for NOx, PM2.5, CO, BC), followed by industry and energy production. The results of 10 years of measurements of the main atmospheric pollutants show that the concentrations of most pollutants are below the corresponding limit values established in Cypriot and European legislation. On the contrary, the target value of ozone is exceeded and the limit value of suspended particles with a diameter of less than 10 micrometers (PM10) is exceeded. It is noted that the increasing trend in ozone is accompanied by a decreasing trend in nitrogen oxides, a possible outcome of traffic related measures, while the exceedances of the PM10 limit values are due to both anthropogenic and natural sources. Lastly, we present results from a first study that accounts for the lagged effects of heat stress and air pollution synergy performed explicitly at daily temporal resolution over Cyprus, based on 16 years data of temperature, air pollutant concentrations and daily mortality. Mortality risk due to heat stress is compounded by air pollution with the elderly being the more vulnerable group.
How to cite: McClintock, C., Kushta, J., Economou, T., Parliari, D., and Lelieveld, J.: An Integrated Analysis of Recent Emissions, Pollutant Concentrations, and Health Impacts over Cyprus: The LIFE SIRIUS Approach , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-51, 2024.
Plinius18-77 | Posters | PL7
Significance of emission sources identification for understanding the atmospheric load of Alternaria spores and Alt a 1 allergen.Rodríguez-Fernández Alberto, Blanco-Alegre Carlos, Aloisi Iris, Vega-Maray Ana María, Valencia-Barrera Rosa María, Suanno Chiara, Fraile Roberto, Calvo Ana Isabel, De Nuntiis Paola, and Fernández-González Delia
Alternaria genus contains more than 300 ubiquitous fungal species, and thus its spores can be found in both outdoor and indoor environments. Many species of this genus are catalogued as plant pathogens that affect different crops, causing important losses in the agricultural sector. Moreover, Alternaria spores have also been described as a significant source of allergens, with Alt a 1 glycoprotein being the major allergen. This allergen reacts with over 90% of IgE serum in patients sensitized to Alternaria and can be present in the air even low airborne spore concentrations. Traditionally, forecasting models for risk periods associated with environmental exposition to this fungus have been based only on aerobiological spore counts combined with some meteorological factors such as temperature and precipitation. However, other parameters such as land use and prevailing winds also significantly influence the airborne allergen load. For that reason, the aim of this study is to identify the major emission sources of Alternaria spores and Alt a 1 allergen to improve the forecasting models of environmental exposure to this aeroallergen. This study was carried out in León (Spain) over a five-year period (2016-2020). Airborne spores were sampled using a Hirst-type volumetric sampler, following the methodology proposed by CEN legislation EN 16868:2019. The samples were analysed under a light microscope at 400x magnification using two longitudinal transects in the effective collecting area. Furthermore, the allergenic fraction was collected by a cyclone low-volume sampler and the major allergen Alt a 1 was quantified by ELISA on daily samples The land use data within a 30 km radius of monitoring station were obtained from Castilla y León crops and natural maps, which use satellite imagery from the Copernicus programme with a spatial resolution of 10 m. Additionally, wind parameters, in combination with spore and allergen concentration, were analyzed using conditional probability functions plots. The results show that areas covered by cereal crops or pastures act as the major sources of Alternaria conidia and Alt a 1 allergen. However, there are discrepancies between the airborne transport of spores and allergen since the highest mean spore concentration values occurs with wind speed from 1 to 2 m s -1; whereas wind speed between 2 and 4 m s-1 favor the highest Alt a 1 allergen concentrations. This may indicate a greater contribution of long-medium transport of allergen than spores, highlighting the need to perform aerobiological spore counts in combination with allergen quantification for a better assessment of atmospheric allergenic load. Finally, this also underscores the importance of considering the land cover and the location of emission sources, as well as the main atmospheric transport routes, to improve the risk forecasting models for environmental exposure to this aeroallergen.
How to cite: Alberto, R.-F., Carlos, B.-A., Iris, A., Ana María, V.-M., Rosa María, V.-B., Chiara, S., Roberto, F., Ana Isabel, C., Paola, D. N., and Delia, F.-G.: Significance of emission sources identification for understanding the atmospheric load of Alternaria spores and Alt a 1 allergen., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-77, 2024.
Alternaria genus contains more than 300 ubiquitous fungal species, and thus its spores can be found in both outdoor and indoor environments. Many species of this genus are catalogued as plant pathogens that affect different crops, causing important losses in the agricultural sector. Moreover, Alternaria spores have also been described as a significant source of allergens, with Alt a 1 glycoprotein being the major allergen. This allergen reacts with over 90% of IgE serum in patients sensitized to Alternaria and can be present in the air even low airborne spore concentrations. Traditionally, forecasting models for risk periods associated with environmental exposition to this fungus have been based only on aerobiological spore counts combined with some meteorological factors such as temperature and precipitation. However, other parameters such as land use and prevailing winds also significantly influence the airborne allergen load. For that reason, the aim of this study is to identify the major emission sources of Alternaria spores and Alt a 1 allergen to improve the forecasting models of environmental exposure to this aeroallergen. This study was carried out in León (Spain) over a five-year period (2016-2020). Airborne spores were sampled using a Hirst-type volumetric sampler, following the methodology proposed by CEN legislation EN 16868:2019. The samples were analysed under a light microscope at 400x magnification using two longitudinal transects in the effective collecting area. Furthermore, the allergenic fraction was collected by a cyclone low-volume sampler and the major allergen Alt a 1 was quantified by ELISA on daily samples The land use data within a 30 km radius of monitoring station were obtained from Castilla y León crops and natural maps, which use satellite imagery from the Copernicus programme with a spatial resolution of 10 m. Additionally, wind parameters, in combination with spore and allergen concentration, were analyzed using conditional probability functions plots. The results show that areas covered by cereal crops or pastures act as the major sources of Alternaria conidia and Alt a 1 allergen. However, there are discrepancies between the airborne transport of spores and allergen since the highest mean spore concentration values occurs with wind speed from 1 to 2 m s -1; whereas wind speed between 2 and 4 m s-1 favor the highest Alt a 1 allergen concentrations. This may indicate a greater contribution of long-medium transport of allergen than spores, highlighting the need to perform aerobiological spore counts in combination with allergen quantification for a better assessment of atmospheric allergenic load. Finally, this also underscores the importance of considering the land cover and the location of emission sources, as well as the main atmospheric transport routes, to improve the risk forecasting models for environmental exposure to this aeroallergen.
How to cite: Alberto, R.-F., Carlos, B.-A., Iris, A., Ana María, V.-M., Rosa María, V.-B., Chiara, S., Roberto, F., Ana Isabel, C., Paola, D. N., and Delia, F.-G.: Significance of emission sources identification for understanding the atmospheric load of Alternaria spores and Alt a 1 allergen., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-77, 2024.
Plinius18-142 | Orals | PL7
Characterization of Water-Soluble Inorganic Ions and Carbonaceous Aerosols in the Urban Atmosphere in Amman, JordanAfnan Al-Hunaiti, Zaid Bakri, Xinyang Li, Lian Duan, Asal Al-Abdallat, Andres Alastuey, Mar Viana, Sharif Arar, Tuukka Petäjä, and Tareq Hussein
The Eastern Mediterranean is a unique region for air pollution because it is the crossroads between three continents exchanging air pollution transported between Africa, Asia, and Europe. Here, we investigated urban particulate matter (PM) carbonaceous and water-soluble ions for eleven months in Amman, Jordan. The PM2.5 total carbon (TC) annual mean was 7.6±3.6 µg/m3 (organic carbon (OC) 5.9±2.8 µg/m3 and elemental carbon (EC) 1.7±1.1 µg/m3), which was about 16.3% of the PM2.5. The PM10 TC annual mean was 8.4±3.9 µg/m3 (OC 6.5 ± 3.1 µg/m3 and elemental carbon (EC) 11.9±1.1µg/m3), about 13.3% of the PM10. The PM2.5 total water-soluble ions (TI) annual mean was 7.9±1.9 µg/m3(about 16.9%), and that of the PM10 was 10.1±2.8 µg/m3 (about 16.0%). The minor ions (F-, NO2-, Br-, and PO43-) constituted less than 1% in the PM fractions. The significant fraction was for SO42- (PM2.5 4.7±1.6 µg/m3 (10.0%) and PM10 5.3±1.9 µg/m3 (8.3%)). The NH4+ had higher amounts of PM2.5 (1.3±0.6 µg/m3; 2.7%) than that PM10 (0.9±0.4 µg/m3; 1.4%). During sand and dust storm (SDS) events, TC, Cl-, and NO3- were doubled in both PM2.5 and PM10, SO42- did not increase significantly, and NH4+ slightly decreased. Regression analysis revealed: (1) carbonaceous aerosols in Amman come equally from primary and secondary sources, (2) about 50% of the OC came from non-combustion sources, (3) traffic emissions dominate the PM, (4) agricultural sources have a negligible effect, (5) SO42- is completely neutralized by NH4+ in the PM2.5 but there could be additional reactions involved in the